- AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6420 with investors focusing on the RBA monetary policy announcement on Tuesday.
- The RBA is expected to leave interest rates steady at 4.35%.
- Investors expect the Fed to cut its key borrowing rates next week by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50%.
The AUD/USD pair finds temporary support and advances to near 0.6420 in Monday’s European session after posting a fresh four-month low near 0.6370 on Friday. The Aussie pair rebounds slightly with investors focusing on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Tuesday.
Market experts expect the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.35% but would temper its hawkish tone as the Australian Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth came in weaker-than-expected, a scenario that would be favorable for the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Analysts at ANZ and Westpac expect the RBA to start reducing interest rates from May 2025. They have pushed their forecasts from March 2025 amid concerns over sticky price pressures.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher even though traders are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting on December 18. This week, investors will pay close attention to the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which will release on Wednesday.
The near-term trend of the AUD/USD pair is bearish as all short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are declining.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles below 40.00, suggesting that a bearish momentum is intact.
More downside towards the August low of 0.6348 and the round-level support of 0.6300 would appear if the Aussie pair fails to hold recovery above the round-level support 0.6400.
On the flip side, a decisive recovery above the November 25 high of 0.6550 will drive the asset towards the round-level resistance of 0.6600, followed by September 11 low of 0.6622.
AUD/USD daily chart
