GoldTechnical Analysis

XAU/USD rally takes a breather, still heading for eight straight weekly advance

  • The US 10-year Treasury bond yield falls nine basis points (bps) and yields 4.416%.
  • US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, drop four basis points to 1.996%, a tailwind for Bullion prices.
  • US S&P Global revealed the Manufacturing PMI in February expanded by 51.6, up from 51.2, exceeding forecasts. The Services PMI plummeted from 52.9 to 49.7.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February dipped from 71.1 to 64.7. American consumers’ inflation expectations for one year rose from 3.3% to 4.3% as foreseen, and for a five-year period, they are anchored at 3.5%, up from 3.2% revealed in the previous month.
  • The Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes from Wednesday revealed that Trump’s trade and immigration policies fueled concerns over rising prices.
  • The World Gold Council revealed that central bank purchases rose more than 54% YoY to 333 tonnes following Trump’s victory.
  • Money market fed funds futures are pricing in 50 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price faces resistance and retreats

Gold price remains upwardly biased, yet the trend seems exhausted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are losing ground with the RSI’s exiting from overbought territory opening the door for a retracement in Bullion prices.

The first key support area to look at is $2,900. Once surpassed, sellers would target the February 14 swing low of $2,877, followed by the February 12 daily low of $2,864. Conversely, if XAU/USD rises past $2,954, the first resistance would be the psychological $2,950, followed by $3,000.

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