Barclays has cut its Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+. The bank now sees Brent averaging $66 per barrel in 2025 (down $4) and $60 in 2026 (down $2).
Key takeaways:
- OPEC+ ramped up output by 411,000 bpd in June, its second consecutive month of aggressive supply increases.
- Saudi Arabia is pressuring under-compliant members like Iraq and Kazakhstan to meet quotas by accelerating production growth.
- Barclays expects OPEC+ to fully unwind its voluntary cuts by October 2025 — a year earlier than previously projected.
- The bank also downgraded U.S. crude production forecasts, seeing output falling by 100,000 bpd in 2025 and 150,000 bpd in 2026.
- Brent crude dropped over $2 in early Monday trade, falling to $59.20 as of 0250 GMT.
Barclays says the faster supply growth could modestly loosen global oil market balances, adding pressure to prices.
