Bitcoin Starts The Week Below $100k Amid Profit Taking
- The cryptocurrency market opened the week in a weaker sentiment; most cryptocurrencies are losing and ZCASH and APECOIN are posting double-digit declines
- Bitcoin fell from levels above $100,000 to $98,000; net inflows into ETFs last Friday fell nearly 40% Thursday, to $368 million – but are still strongly positive
- Ethereum has retreated from a significant psychological level above $4,000 and is currently trading slightly below $3,900.
The sentiment of the cryptocurrency market is cooling relative to the previous week, which may raise some concerns about a potential correction. Data shows that long-term investors have sold a record 828,000 BTC in the past 30 days; on average, this group is trading at about 400% gains (the average purchase price is about $25,000). At the same time, Glassnode data suggests that many of Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators such as NUPL and RPRL have reached extremely tight levels, signalling euphoria with 95.3% of BTC addresses recording unrealized gains (as of December 3). The dollar index is losing slightly at the start of the week, and sentiment on global stock markets is positive; primarily due to euphoria on the Chinese stock market. Meanwhile, Wall Street contracts are trading unchanged, marginally lower from Friday’s levels.
Inflows into ETFs – still positive
ETF funds accumulated BTC and ETH heavily last week; activity eased somewhat on Friday. With prices falling despite these positive signs, however, markets’ attention will focus on today’s data.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Bitcoin and Ethereum (D1 interval)
Looking at BTC, we can point out that the key support may turn out to be the level between $90K and $88K; below these levels there is a certain ‘post-election’ gap, which only ends around $74K-$75K. A drop below these neighborhoods could suggest the potential for a deeper market correction. In turn, a rapid return above $100k would make a retest of historical maxima and perhaps a further part of the ‘ATH discovery’ phase likely.
Source: xStation5
Ethereum has a strong upward momentum behind it and is still losing about 20% to the historical peaks of 2021. The 23.6 and 38.2 Fibo levels, supported by recent strong price reactions, may prove to be short-term ‘stops’ in a possible downside scenario. The $3,000 level appears to be a very strong long-term support with 61.8 Fibo and the upper limit of the last downward channel, which lasted from the spring until late October/early November.
Source: xStation5
Long-term investors have been selling off Bitcoins at a record pace, with the STH group posting an average gain of $25,500 per BTC; the STH momentum indicator has an atomic rise behind it, suggesting that selling pressure may be coming to this group as well. Source: BGeometrics
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