Gold is gaining 0.60% today, eliminating yesterday’s losses and once again surpassing the level of 3130 USD per ounce. The rise is, of course, driven by record market uncertainty as the moment of the U.S. tariff announcement approaches.
The main factor driving recent gold gains is the growing uncertainty in global markets, largely fueled by the trade policy of U.S. President Donald Trump. Just last week, on March 26, 2025, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, which is set to take effect soon, heightening fears of a broader trade war. As further retaliatory measures are expected to be announced later today, April 2, 2025, investors are flocking to gold as a hedge against economic instability and potential slowdown. Historically, gold performs well during periods of geopolitical and economic turbulence, and the current tariff threats — combined with retaliatory actions from countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China — amplify this effect.
Central banks, especially in developing countries such as China and Russia, play a significant role in shaping demand for gold. These banks are increasing their reserves not only to protect against global market turmoil but also to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar.
Today’s expected announcement of new tariffs may either strengthen or weaken the current upward trend. It is worth mentioning the recent words of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who stated that the tariffs will act as a limit. These tariffs represent a maximum level, and the countries affected may later take steps to reduce them. If we adopt this point of view, April 2 could mark the peak of trade tensions between the U.S. and its other partners. As a result, we may expect relief in the markets and a return to more risk-on assets. However, if the surprise is very negative and Trump aims for further escalation, then the current trend may continue.
Gold (D1 interval)
Gold has accelerated gains in recent days and is breaking out above a strong upward trend. The further direction is directly dependent on the financial market’s reaction to today’s tariff rate publication and the risk of further escalation of the trade war. In both scenarios, we can expect increased volatility, and the key zone is the upper boundary of the ascending channel, currently located around 3080 USD.
source: xStation 5
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