- GBP/JPY struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday amid mixed cues.
- Trade deal hopes undermine the safe-haven JPY and lend support to the cross.
- A modest USD strength weighs on the GBP and caps the upside for spot prices.
The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session uptick and currently trades just below the 191.00 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid the emergence of some selling around the Japanese Yen (JPY), warranting some caution for bearish traders.
Despite mixed signals regarding the state of negotiations between the US and China, investors remain hopeful over the potential de-escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. This remains supportive of a positive risk tone, which undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY, and should act as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.
Meanwhile, traders have pushed back expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to rising economic risks from US tariffs. However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further policy tightening by the BoJ later this year. This might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets ahead of the BoJ meeting this week.
The Japanese central bank is scheduled to announce its decision on Thursday and is expected to keep interest rates steady. Hence, investors will scrutinize the BoJ’s updated economic projections for cues about the timeline for the next rate hike, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term JPY price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/JPY cross.
In the meantime, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war might contribute to limiting the JPY losses. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is pressured by the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying. This suggests that any intraday move up in the GBP/JPY cross could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.
