GBP/USD falls to near 1.2850 following renewed US-China trade tension

• The GBP/USD pair weakened after the RICS Housing Price Balance data came in below expectations.
• Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect the BoE to potentially react strongly at its May meeting with a significant 50 basis point rate cut.
• President Trump announced an immediate tariff hike on Chinese imports to 125% shortly after China raised duties.

The GBP/USD pair snapped its two-day winning streak, retreating to around 1.2850 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) came under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected data from the RICS Housing Price Balance, which showed just a 2% increase in March. This marked a significant slowdown from the 20% and 11% gains recorded in January and February, respectively, and fell far short of the anticipated 8% rise—highlighting a stagnation in price growth over recent months.

Further weighing on the British Pound was renewed trade tension between the US and China. US President Donald Trump announced an immediate hike in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, following China’s retaliatory increase in duties on US goods to 84%. This escalating trade war poses a negative backdrop for the United Kingdom (UK), which appears ill-equipped to compete in a price war with China. The tit-for-tat tariff hikes overshadowed earlier efforts to ease trade tensions, where the US had temporarily reduced tariffs to 10% for 90 days to support broader negotiations.

Market sentiment has shifted dovish toward the Bank of England (BoE), with traders increasingly expecting policy easing in response to global economic risks. Deutsche Bank analysts anticipate that the BoE could respond decisively at its May meeting with an aggressive 50 basis point (bps) rate cut.

Meanwhile, the Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting suggested that US policymakers are nearly unanimous in acknowledging the dual threat of persistent inflation and slowing economic growth. The Minutes warned of “difficult tradeoffs” ahead for the Federal Reserve as it navigates these competing challenges.