Gold price lacks bullish conviction despite modest USD weakness, rising trade tensions

• Gold price gained some positive traction on Monday amid modest US Dollar weakness.
• Bets that the Fed will cut rates again undermine the USD and benefit the XAU/USD pair.
• Concerns about Trump’s tariff plans and a global trade war also support the commodity. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on modest Asian session gains on Monday, though it manages to hold comfortably above a three-week low touched on Friday. Bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point twice by the end of this year fail to assist the US Dollar (USD) to build on last week’s bounce from over a two-month low. This, in turn, helps revive demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. 

Apart from this, concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and persistent geopolitical risk turn out to be other factors underpinning the safe-haven Gold price. That said, the lack of follow-through buying warrants caution before confirming that the XAU/USD’s recent corrective pullback from the all-time peak has run its course and placing fresh bullish bets ahead of this week’s important US macro releases. 

Gold price lacks bullish conviction despite a combiation of supporting factors

• The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in January and increased 2.5% over the past twelve months, down slightly from 2.6% in December. 
• Adding to this, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, gained 0.3% last month and climbed 2.6% on a yearly basis in January, marking a notable deceleration from 2.9% in the previous month.
• The report further revealed that US consumer spending unexpectedly dropped 0.2% last month, marking the first decline since March 2023 and the biggest decrease in nearly four years, fueling worries about the US growth outlook.
• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market participants are pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting and lower borrowing costs again in September.
• This comes on top of worries that US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs would undermine consumer spending and fail to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on a three-day-old recovery move from over a two-month low.
• Trump confirmed that he will  impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday and announced plans to double the 10% universal tariff on imports from China, raising the risk of a global trade war and benefiting the safe-haven Gold price. 
• Traders now look to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for some impetus later this Monday. Apart from this, other key US macro releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, should influence the near-term USD trajectory.

Gold price could attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $2,885 area

From a technical perspective, last week’s breakdown below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-February rally was seen as a key trigger for sellers. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, and back prospects for an extension of the corrective pullback from the all-time peak. 

Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $2,885 region. This is closely followed by the $2,900 mark, above which the Gold price could climb to the $2,934 intermediate hurdle en route to the record high, around the $2,956 region. 

On the flip side, Friday’s swing low, around the $2,833-2,832 zone, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the Gold price could fall to 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $2,815-2,810 region. Some follow-through selling below the $2,800 mark would suggest that the commodity has topped out and could pave the way for deeper losses.