- Gold price gains some positive traction on Tuesday, albeit the upside remains limited.
- Trade war fears, geopolitical risks and depressed US bond yields offer some support.
- Bets for a less dovish Fed underpin the USD and cap the upside for the XAU/USD.
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains to the $2,650 area and turns flat during the first half of the European session on Tuesday. Traders now seem reluctant and prefer to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut cues before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Hence, the focus remains glued to this week’s important US macro releases, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will be looked upon for the interest rate outlook in the US. This, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
In the meantime, concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and bets that the Fed will cut rates again this month might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Meanwhile, the growing market conviction that Trump’s policies will reignite inflation and force the Fed to keep rates high for a longer period provide a modest lift to the US Treasury bond yields. This continues to offer some support to the US Dollar (USD) and caps the upside for the commodity, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets. Traders now look to the US JOLTS Job Openings data to grab short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD.
Gold price struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains amid mixed cues
- Investors remain concerned that US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans could trigger a second wave of global trade wars, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price.
- The US Dollar looks to build on the overnight recovery from a multi-month low amid bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for a longer period and might cap the precious metal.
- The Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 48.4 in November amid hopes of business-friendly policies from the incoming Trump administration.
- The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 75% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting later this month.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond languishes near its lowest levels since late October and further contributes to limiting the downside for the non-yielding XAU/USD.
- Russia fired at least 60 North Korean missiles against Ukraine. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed that his country will invariably support Moscow until Russia achieves a great victory in Ukraine.
- Investors keenly await this week’s important US macro releases and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which might influence the outlook for interest rates in the US and drive the commodity.
- Tuesday’s US economic docket features the release of Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings data, though the focus remains on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
Gold price could attract sellers at higher levels amid bearish technical setup
From a technical perspective, Monday’s breakdown below a four-day-old ascending channel was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. That said, mixed oscillators on daily/4-hour charts and the overnight bounce warrant some caution before positioning for a meaningful downside. Any positive move beyond the $2,650 area, however, might confront resistance near last Friday’s swing high, around the $2,666 region. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $2,677-2,678 zone, above which the Gold price could aim to reclaim the $2,700 round figure.
On the flip side, the overnight trough, around the $2,622-2,621 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $2,605-2,600 region. Some follow-through selling might expose the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the $2,577 zone. A convincing break below the latter should pave the way for a slide towards the November swing low, around the $2,537-2,536 region.
