The fundamentals for corn do not look good for higher prices, in my opinion. July 2025 corn fell to its lower level since October of last year. Very good weather conditions continue to pressure the corn market lower. In addition, South Korea bought South American corn, which demonstrates global export competition. Exports are important for U. S. corn demand.
The Trump Administration continues to hint that the USA is close to trade agreements with India, Japan and Vietnam. This is significant as the USA and China are negotiating trade agreements in London this week. China is likely to notice the trade deals with other countries and may push to get agreements finalized.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly Crop Progress report, corn planting is 97 percent complete, right on average. Conditions rose two percent to 71 percent good/excellent USDA This is below last year’s 74 percent for the same time period.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on June 12 is expected to show a decline in old-crop ending stocks due to higher exports up to 1.392 billion bushels, down from 1.415 bushels in May 2025. There was also a slight decline in new crop carryover at 1.792 billion compared to 1.8 billion in May. This report on Thursday takes a back seat to the more impactful June 30 grain stocks/planted acreage report.
Typically, it’s best to be short in corn in June, in my opinion. This year, the market seems too short already. One trade strategy would be to buy July corn at the market and use a 10 cent stop-loss order. Your profit objective could be 20 cents. Risking one to make two can be a good trade ratio.
Below is an eight-hour chart of July corn. It appears to show momentum in the short term.
In my opinion, an options strategy could be to sell the July corn 435 put at 4.4. Today’s range in that option was 4.1 to 8.7 so corn rallied today and puts went down in value. Take that premium and buy July corn 445 calls at 4. These options expire on June 20. The margin on corn futures is approximately $1,100.
