The Mexican peso strengthened toward 18.81 per USD, reaching ten-month highs on the back of easing geopolitical strains, dovish signals from the Fed and resilient domestic fundamentals. Despite unemployment ticking up to 2.7% in May, the labour market remains historically tight, supporting consumption and incomes even as Q1 GDP contracted mildly, underpinning Banxico’s cautiously accommodative stance and continuing to attract carry flows.
Banxico delivered a widely anticipated 50 bp cut to 8% despite 4.51% headline inflation—narrowing nominal differentials while preserving real yields and tempering volatility by tying further easing to incoming data. Externally, progress in US–China trade negotiations on rare-earth exports and President Trump’s repeated critiques of the Fed have lifted expectations of US rate cuts, weakening the dollar and further bolstering the peso.
