Index at 200-day EMA Before Critical US Labor Market Data
The final trading session of each month’s first week brings the publication of crucial US labor market data. Today’s NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) report could determine whether “risk assets” will close the weekly trading in positive territory and whether this momentum can extend into next week.
What Is the Market Expecting?
- US Average Hourly Earnings (y/y) (April): Forecast 3.9% vs Previous 3.8%
- US Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) (April): Forecast 0.3% vs Previous 0.3%
- US Non-Farm Payrolls (April): Forecast 138K vs Previous 228K
- US Private Non-Farm Payrolls (April): Forecast 124K vs Previous 209K
- US Unemployment Rate (April): Forecast 4.2% vs Previous 4.2%
The market anticipates a moderate April employment report, showing a slowdown in hiring momentum but sustained wage growth pressure. US Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to increase by 138K (down from 228K in the previous month), with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise to 3.9% y/y from 3.8% a month ago.
There are concerns that employment growth is declining as more sectors limit hiring due to increased economic uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariff policies. This primarily affects tourism and hospitality, as well as transportation and logistics. Only two sectors may record employment growth: construction and business services.
Potential Market Reaction?
A positive NFP report would strengthen the dollar and could delay Fed rate cuts until June. The dollar index has already broken above the 100.00 level, and USD/JPY has risen 1.6% following the BoJ’s dovish stance and easing trade tensions between China and the US. Bloomberg Financial LP
The normal distribution of analyst forecasts for today’s NFP data is skewed to the right (excluding extreme values), creating a chance for a higher-than-expected reading. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP
US100 (D1)
The Nasdaq 100, represented by US100, is trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, a key resistance zone. Bulls will aim to retest the 200- and 100-day moving averages, while bears will likely push to break the 19,195 level—a level that previously triggered an uptrend—with a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI indicator remains above the 48.5 level, which historically signaled a return to bullish momentum after crossing it. Meanwhile, the MACD is widening, indicating growing upward momentum.
Source: xStation
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