Oil (OIL) is gaining more than 1% today, as markets await the OPEC+ decision on Thursday. It is likely that OPEC+ will extend the latest round of oil production cuts until the end of the first quarter, next year. The producer group accounts for about half of the world’s output and intends to phase out production cuts, through 2025. Goldman Sachs expects production cuts by April. Traders also expect Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, to cut prices for Asian counterparts, to the lowest level in about four years. Oil is also reacting optimistically to the increased likelihood of a 25bp rate cut in the US, in December. Year-to-date, oil is currently losing about 6%.
Oil (H4, D1 interval)
On the oil chart, we can see a formation resembling a symmetrical triangle. An upward breakout above $74 per barrel could open the way for a change in trend. A drop to $71 could legitimize the scenario of another strong downward impulse.
Source: xStation5
In an upward scenario, significant resistance for oil is around $88, where we see the 38.2 Fibo and previous price reactions. Before that, however, the bulls will have to break above $80 (EMA200, red line). The first important support for oil price declines is around $60-$61 per barrel Brent (61.8 Fibonacci retracement level).
Source: xStation5
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