July has begun in full swing, and we’ve already seen the release of crucial US labour market data. Contrary to previous signals, these figures indicate that the state of the American economy remains robust. Nevertheless, we still await key data such as CPI inflation, the Federal Reserve’s decision, and the earnings reports from major US companies. This doesn’t mean the upcoming week will be dull. Donald Trump is set to ensure that, with a new chapter in the trade war – or perhaps even its complete resolution – on the horizon. Next week, it’s worth paying close attention to markets like USDCHF, OIL, and US500.
USDCHF
The USDCHF pair has reached the vicinity of its historical lows from 2011. At that time, the Eurozone grappled with a sovereign debt crisis, and S&P decided to downgrade the US credit rating amid the debt ceiling crisis. All these uncertainty factors led to a significant surge in demand for safe-haven assets. The end of the USDCHF’s decline was linked to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) largest intervention in history: establishing a maximum appreciation limit for the franc against the euro. While a similar move by the central bank is unlikely now, further interest rate cuts or currency interventions cannot be ruled out. For the United States, most negative information has already been priced in, with only one major factor remaining: the trade war. July 9 marks the deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, including those on Switzerland. Should a trade agreement be signed, it might signal the end of the dollar’s weakening against the franc and a renewed search for higher potential returns.
OIL
We’ve just seen another OPEC+ decision regarding the restoration of production from voluntary cuts. The oil market is no longer experiencing the same level of risk as it did just a month ago, when supply concerns were prevalent. The coming months should lead to further market calm. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet to discuss ending the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Should any breakthrough occur, the risk in the oil market would diminish. It’s also worth noting that we are currently in the period of peak fuel demand in the US, at the start of the summer holidays, just after Independence Day.
US500
Wednesday, July 9, is a pivotal day for financial markets, including Wall Street. The world fears a repeat of April’s “Liberation Day,” though numerous trade agreements have recently been announced. Nevertheless, the key takeaway for markets is that if trade agreements are not reached, the suspension of reciprocal tariffs will be extended. Next week, we won’t see major company earnings reports following the end of the second quarter. The only significant company scheduled to release its results will be Delta Air Lines on July 10.
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