UK CPI Slightly Above Expectations
08:00 AM GMT, United Kingdom – Inflation Data:
- CPI: actual -0.1% MoM; forecast -0.3% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
- CPI: actual 3.0% YoY; forecast 2.8% YoY; previous 2.5% YoY;
- Core CPI: actual -0.4% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
- Core CPI: actual 3.7% YoY; forecast 3.7% YoY; previous 3.2% YoY;
- Services CPI: actual 5.0% YoY; forecast 5.1% YoY; previous 4.4% YoY;
- PPI Output: actual 0.3% YoY; forecast 0.1% YoY; previous 0.1% YoY;
- PPI Output: actual 0.5% MoM; forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
- PPI Input: actual 0.8% MoM; forecast 0.7% MoM; previous 0.1% MoM;
- PPI Input: actual -0.1% YoY; forecast -0.6% YoY; previous -1.5% YoY;
United Kingdom – Retail Price Index:
- RPI: actual -0.1% MoM; forecast 0.0% MoM; previous 0.3% MoM;
The headline CPI rose more than expected to 3.0% YoY (vs 2.8% forecast), accelerating from the previous 2.5%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. Core CPI held steady at the forecasted 3.7% YoY, though significantly higher than the previous 3.2%, indicating broader price pressures beyond volatile components.
Services inflation jumped sharply to 5.0% YoY from 4.4%, highlighting ongoing wage-price pressures in the service sector, though slightly below the 5.1% forecast.
On the producer side, both input and output prices showed signs of renewed pressure. PPI Input prices rose 0.8% MoM (above 0.7% forecast), while Output prices increased 0.5% MoM (above 0.2% forecast), suggesting potential upstream inflation pressures that could feed through to consumer prices.
The RPI turned negative at -0.1% MoM, below expectations of 0.0%, providing some relief but not enough to significantly alter the overall inflationary picture.
This data may complicate the Bank of England’s policy decisions.
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