The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States fell sharply to 5.1% in June 2025, the lowest in three months, compared to 6.6% in May which was the highest since November 1981, according to the preliminary estimate from the University of Michigan Consumer Survey.
In the meantime, the five-year outlook fell for a second straight month to 4.1% from 4.2%. Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead.
