USD/INR jumps as RBI cuts Repo Rate by 25 bps to 6.00%

• The Indian Rupee loses momentum in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
• RBI’s MPC cut the Repo Rate by 25 bps to 6.0% in the April meeting on Wednesday.
• An escalating global trade war and potential US recession undermine the INR. 
• The FOMC Minutes will take center stage later on Wednesday. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends the decline on Wednesday after reaching the largest single-day loss in nearly three months in the previous session. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to cut the policy Repo Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.00% at its April meeting on Wednesday.

The local currency remains under pressure amid a looming global trade war stoking fears of economic meltdown. Furthermore, continued foreign capital outflows and US Dollar (USD) buying from importers, foreign investors and oil companies weigh on the Indian currency.

Nonetheless, a fall in crude oil prices might help limit the INR’s losses. It’s worth noting that India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the Indian currency value. Traders will closely monitor the FOMC Minutes later on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak. 

Indian Rupee seems vulnerable amid Trump tariff turmoil

• RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the Indian economy has made steady progress towards the goal of price stability and sustained growth.
• “The rupee experienced a decline in value against the US dollar, primarily driven by strong demand for dollars from importers and ongoing outflows of foreign funds from Indian equity markets,” forex traders said.
• Pranjul Bhandari, HSBC’s Chief India Economist, expects consecutive interest rate cuts from the RBI at the central bank’s April, June and August meetings.
• US Customs and Border Protection said on Tuesday that it is prepared to begin collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 US trade partners. 
• Trump noted that he wasn’t considering a pause on his plan to implement sweeping additional tariffs on dozens of countries despite contact from trade partners seeking to avoid the levies, but hinted he would be open to some negotiations.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that there’s no rush to cut interest rates as the economy and the labor market are still solid and a lot is still unclear about the size and scope of Trump’s tariffs. 
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that Trump’s tariffs are “way bigger” than had been modeled, and it’s unclear how quickly or fully those higher costs will be passed on to consumers. 

USD/INR resumes recovery above the 100-day EMA

The Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The USD/INR pair resumes its uptrend on the daily chart, with the price crossing above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline. 

The immediate resistance level for USD/INR is located at the pullback of 86.48. Sustained upside momentum could take the pair to the next bullish target at the 87.00 psychological level. The next hurdle is seen at 87.53, the high of February 28.

On the downside, the first downside target to watch is 85.42, the low of March 31. Further south, the next contention level emerges at 85.20, the low of April 3, followed by 85.00, the round mark.