- European indices are mostly ending the session in the red. The DAX is down 0.4%, the FTSE 100 loses over 0.3%, the SMI drops 0.8%, and the STOXX Europe 600 declines 0.2%. Gains are seen only in France’s CAC40 (+0.2%) and Italy’s IT40 (+0.2%).
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the eurozone increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, maintaining the same pace as the previous quarter and aligning with forecasts. According to Eurostat data, Poland was the fastest-growing economy in the European Union, with its GDP rising by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter.
- U.S. stock indices are experiencing a calm session. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are fluctuating around the previous day’s closing prices, while the Nasdaq 100 is up 0.3%. Intel reverses initial gains, with profit-taking ending the semiconductor giant’s best weekly winning streak since 2000; TSMC may operate Intel factories after Trump request.
- Shares of Applied Materials are down nearly 7%, as investors anticipate that export restrictions to China will weaken the results of the key components and services supplier for the chip sector. Airbnb (ABNB.US) shares are up over 14% after the travel-focused company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and provided positive forecasts for the coming year.
- Today’s U.S. retail sales data caused increased market volatility. Sales fell by -0.9% m/m, compared to the forecasted decline of -0.2%. The reading was lower than expected, leading to a slight resurgence of the scenario for faster interest rate cuts by the Fed. Investor sentiment was not changed by the industrial production reading, which came in higher than the market consensus. On a m/m basis, it increased by 0.5% (vs. forecasts: 0.3%, previous reading: 0.9%).
- The data had the most significant impact on U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which fell below 4.5%, erasing the gains seen earlier this week after the surprisingly high inflation reading.
- The return of expectations for potential faster Fed rate cuts significantly weakened the dollar, which is the weakest among G10 currencies today, falling by -0.5%. The New Zealand dollar is performing the best today, gaining nearly 1%. Notable gains are also seen in the Australian dollar (+0.6%).
- Gold is down over 1.5% amid falling U.S. Treasury yields, which retreated under pressure from weaker-than-forecast U.S. retail sales. Over 1% declines are also observed in platinum and palladium. Silver is losing significantly less, down 0.2%.
- Oil is down nearly 1% and is trading just below $75 per barrel. Natural gas futures are up almost 3% as U.S. weather forecasts indicate significant cooling, snowstorms, and record frosts, boosting heating demand.
- Increased volatility was observed today among agricultural commodities. Wheat on the CBOT rose over 3.5% amid cold weather in the U.S., threatening crops. Futures for sugar, soybeans, and cotton also increased. Coffee futures on the ICE fell by over 3% today.
- EURUSD gains today almost 0.4% and Bitcoin is up over 2% above $98,000; amid the rise of the leading cryptocurrency, XRP is gaining over 9%, and the TRUMP token is up over 40%.
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