WTI US Oil Price Forecast: Rises to near $88.50 as Kuwait under attack, uptrend remains intact

• WTI price rises to near $88.45 in Monday’s early European session. 
• The Kuwaiti military reported a missile and drone attack, raising fears of prolonged conflict in the Middle East. 
• The constructive outlook remains intact above the key 100-day EMA. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at $95.00; the initial support level is seen at $85.20. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $88.45 during the early European trading hours on Monday. WTI price attracts some buyers following the Kuwaiti military reports of a missile and drone attack. Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments and the US-Iran peace deal progress. 

The Guardian reported on Monday that Kuwait’s armed forces said that the country’s air defense systems were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks after air raid sirens sounded and emergency alerts were issued nationwide. Minutes after Kuwait reported coming under attack, US Central Command (Centcom) said it had conducted “strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones” over the weekend.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that it targeted an airbase used by the US to launch an attack on Sirik Island in southern Iran. Escalating tensions in the Middle East could raise fears of supply disruption and boost the WTI price in the near term. 

The release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report is due later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might weigh on the WTI price.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil holds a constructive near-term tone while it stays above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), with the lower Bollinger Band adding intermediate demand beneath spot. Price, however, remains below the Bollinger mid-line, keeping the latest pullback within a broader uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 suggests cooling momentum rather than outright bearish pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges near the May 26 high of $93.57. The next hurdle is located at the Bollinger middle band around $95.00, followed by the 100.00 psychological level and the upper Bollinger Band near $104.76. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the current area around the lower Bollinger Band at $85.20, with the 100-day SMA at $82.56 acting as a more important bullish line in the sand; a sustained break below that zone would significantly weaken the prevailing positive bias.