Chart of The Day – Oil Surges 5%

Brent crude oil futures (OIL) are rising nearly 5% today to above $81 per barrel, approaching their highest level since January 2025.

• Donald Trump stated that the largest attacks on Iran are yet to come, while Iran’s IRGC forces emphasized yesterday that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and that they will not allow free transit of oil from the region — neither through the Strait nor via pipeline infrastructure.
• Although the United States denies that Iran has the capability to shut down the key waterway, vessels are clearly reluctant to enter Hormuz. According to Ocean Network Express data, more than 100 tankers are currently anchored near the entrance to the Strait, and that number could increase.
• Following the military escalation in the region, the market is pricing in the risk of a prolonged conflict. This morning, Donald Trump expressed readiness for such a scenario, and yesterday he did not rule out a ground operation in Iran. For the oil market, this means that the risk of prices rising toward the “symbolic” $100 per barrel level has become real. Brent would need to climb roughly another 25% to reach that threshold.
• The sharp rise in oil prices is increasing inflation risks and adding further pressure on risk assets, including U.S. equities — where there had recently been expectations of meaningful rate cuts this year. Higher oil prices imply persistent short-term inflationary pressure combined with the risk of slowing economic activity.
• U.S. index futures are lower today, with US100 down more than 1.5%, while VIX futures are up over 5%. Markets are rotating back into the U.S. dollar, and rising bond yields are further pulling capital away from Wall Street.

OIL (D1)

Source: xStation5

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