Forecasting the upcoming week: Hawkish Fed meets escalating Iran war

The US Dollar (USD)i weakened this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping back below 100.00 to 99.60 on Friday after a surge in the middle of the week driven by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to hold rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed as Oil prices remain high. Reports indicate that the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional Marines to the region, suggesting that a swift resolution is unlikely. Additionally, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that inflationary pressures could still rise.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.33%	0.80%	1.02%	-0.19%	1.09%	0.91%	0.06%
EUR	-0.33%		0.46%	0.70%	-0.52%	0.77%	0.58%	-0.26%
GBP	-0.80%	-0.46%		0.25%	-0.98%	0.30%	0.12%	-0.72%
JPY	-1.02%	-0.70%	-0.25%		-1.19%	0.07%	-0.10%	-0.93%
CAD	0.19%	0.52%	0.98%	1.19%		1.28%	1.11%	0.26%
AUD	-1.09%	-0.77%	-0.30%	-0.07%	-1.28%		-0.17%	-1.02%
NZD	-0.91%	-0.58%	-0.12%	0.10%	-1.11%	0.17%		-0.84%
CHF	-0.06%	0.26%	0.72%	0.93%	-0.26%	1.02%	0.84%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1550 region after touching fresh 2026 lows earlier in the week, even though the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish tilt, with markets now pricing an 85% probability of a rate hike this year.

GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3330 after the Bank of England (BoE) held rates on Thursday but signaled it may need to tighten policy if energy-driven inflation persists.

USD/JPY is trading near 159.30 with the Yen catching a bid as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) signaled it will resume its normalization path.

AUD/USD is trading near 0.7010 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates for a second consecutive meeting, though broader risk-off sentiment continues to weigh on the Aussie.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading near $98 per barrel, near its weekly high after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold plummeted to $4,583 after a brutal selloff driven by rising Treasury yields and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, outpacing any safe-haven demand from the conflict.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

Monday, March 23:

• ECB’s Escrivá.
• ECB’s Cipollone.
• ECB’s Lane.

Tuesday, March 24:

• RBNZ’s Breman.
• ECB’s Kocher.
• ECB’s Sleijpen.
• ECB’s Cipollone.
• ECB’s Nagel.
• ECB’s Lane.
• Fed’s Barr.

Wednesday, March 25:

• ECB’s President Lagarde.
• ECB’s Lane.
• BoE’s Greene.
• Fed’s Miran.

Thursday, March 26:

• ECB’s De Guindos.
• BoE’s Breeden.
• BoE’s Greene.
• BoE’s Taylor.
• Fed’s Cook.
• Fed’s Miran.
• Fed’s Jefferson.
• Fed’s Logan.
• Fed’s Barr.

Friday, March 27:

• Fed’s Daly.
• Fed’s Paulson.
• ECB’s Schnabel.

Saturday, March 28:

• ECB’s Cipollone.

Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape monetary policies

Monday, March 23:

• Eurozone March Consumer Confidence Prel.
• Australia March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
• Japan February Consumer Price Index.

Tuesday, March 24:

• Eurozone March HCOB PMIs Prel.
• UK March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
• US ADP Employment Change.
• US Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
• US March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
• Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

Wednesday, March 25:

• Australia Consumer Price Index (Feb).
• United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI).
• Switzerland March ZEW Survey – Expectations.
• Germany March IFO Business Climate.
• Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).

Thursday, March 26:

• Germany GfK April Consumer Confidence.
• Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
• Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
• US Initial Jobless Claims.
• New Zealand March ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence.

Friday, March 27:

• UK March Consumer Confidence.
• UK February Retail Sales.
• Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
• US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.