Trade of The Day – Aluminium

Facts:

• The Persian Gulf countries (Iran, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar) were responsible for producing more than 6.85 million metric tons of finished aluminium, accounting for approx. 9% of global production.
• The EMA50, EMA100, and EMA200 moving averages are maintaining momentum, signalling the continuation of a long-term uptrend.
• The MACD indicator continues to signal a very strong uptrend.

Trade: Long position (BUY) on ALUMINIUM at market price.

• Target: 3500
• Stop: 3100

ALUMINIUM (D1)

Source: xStation5

OPINION: The Persian Gulf is known mainly for oil and gas; however, the region is also one of the most important industrial hubs for aluminium production. The current price increases observed following the escalation of tensions in the region are, with high probability, underestimated. Even if the strait is reopened soon, there will be significant delays in deliveries of raw ore to the region, which does not have meaningful geological resources. In addition, disruptions to commercial shipping will raise transport costs, which will translate into higher costs of the finished product. A kind of “floor” for prices may be the fact that aluminium shows a correlation of around 0.9 with copper prices. For copper, meanwhile, the median price forecast for 2026 remains around USD 12,000 due to a chronic supply shortage.

Methodology and assumptions:

• The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart—especially EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels—as well as fundamental analysis of the aluminium market.
• The target level was determined based on FIBO levels and the arithmetic relationship between supply and price.
• The protective order (stop loss) was set based on a favourable risk-to-reward ratio and with reference to a FIBO level.