Palladium Falls as Oil, Fed Bets Weigh

Palladium hovered around $1,260 per ounce, giving back recent gains as escalating tensions between the US and Iran lifted oil prices and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated. Brent crude remained near a more than one-month high after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had struck US military assets across the Middle East, while Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, fueling inflation concerns. Higher US Treasury yields and growing expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike also added pressure to the broader precious metals complex, with traders raising the probability of a December rate increase to 83% from 73% a week earlier. Losses were capped by expectations of another annual market deficit, with South African mine supply remaining constrained by elevated operating costs, including higher electricity tariffs. Despite the latest moves, palladium remained down 22.81% year to date.