WTI Price Forecast: Trades above $75.50 on Iran uncertainty; 200-day SMA holds the key

June 19, 2026
Posted by: Today Markets
Categories: Markets, Oil Futures, WTI.Oil

WTI consolidates during the Asian session on Friday amid a combination of diverging forces.
US Vice President Vance cancels trip for Iran peace talks in Switzerland, fueling uncertainty.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eases Oil supply concerns and caps the black liquid.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $72.80 region, or the lowest level since early March, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity currently trades just above mid-$75.00s, up 0.30% for the day, though it lacks bullish conviction.

US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran, fueling uncertainty over the next phase of negotiations to end the conflict. Adding to this, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon threaten to unravel the US-Iran deal, which turns out to be another factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices. However, the resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz releases stranded oil in the Middle East Gulf, keeping a lid on a further upside for the black liquid.

From a technical perspective, this week’s breakdown and acceptance below the $83.00 mark, representing the lower end of a three-month-old trading range, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 31.77, hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure is stretched but not yet capitulating. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero, near -1.46, hinting that bearish momentum is still in play.

Crude Oil prices, however, hold above the technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.83. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the said support before positioning for further losses. As long as spot prices defend this moving average, dips are likely to be tested rather than cleanly extended. That said, bulls may need a clear momentum turn in RSI and MACD before attempting a sustained rebound from current levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)