XAG/USD rises above $69.00, but stays constrained below 100-day SMA

• Silver price advances to around $69.15 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• The white metal keeps a bearish vibe under the key 100-day SMA, RSI holding below the midline. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at $70.00; the initial support level is seen at $66.81. 

Silver price rises to near $69.15 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The white metal attracts some buyers following positive developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal. 

US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian both digitally signed the memorandum of understanding in English and Farsi aimed at ending the war with Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the US-Iran agreement is taking “immediate effect” after being signed by both sides. This development has lowered crude oil prices, easing energy-driven inflation concerns and boosting demand for precious metals. 

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave the interest rates unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday, while signaling the possibility of higher rates later this year. This, in turn, might cap the upside for silver, a non-yielding asset. It’s worth noting that Silver is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, XAG/USD stays capped beneath a dense confluence of resistance, with spot below the Bollinger middle band and well under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias tilted lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45, hinting at subdued bullish momentum after the recent pullback rather than an oversold condition, which suggests rallies are more likely to face selling pressure while price holds under these overhead levels.

On the topside, initial resistance is placed at the $70.00 psychological level. The next hurdle is seen at the Bollinger SMA around $71.45, ahead of the 100-day SMA at about $77.62, with the Bollinger upper band near $79.78 acting as a wider cap if buyers attempt a deeper recovery. 

On the downside, the first support level is located at June 17 low of $66.81. The next contention level emerges at the Bollinger lower band near $63.15, where a break would open the door to further weakness, while holding above this floor would instead favor continued range trading beneath the clustered daily resistance band.