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Coffee Futures and Coffee Trading
Commodity Trading Guide

Coffee Futures:
Coffee Trading Basics

Discover how the global coffee market works, what moves coffee prices, the world's leading producers and the strategies traders use to analyse changing coffee markets.

A global commodity with a multi-billion-dollar economy

Coffee is one of the most highly traded commodities in the world. It is grown in tropical and sub-tropical regions and consumed across almost every part of the globe.

The coffee industry has created a complex global economy involving farmers, exporters, producers, distributors, retailers and financial markets.

For traders, coffee is an interesting commodity because prices can be influenced by weather, supply disruptions, distribution costs, geopolitical events, currencies and changing consumer demand.

$100B+
Estimated annual value of the global coffee market

Coffee is one of the world's most actively traded agricultural commodities, with prices often responding quickly to changes in supply and demand.

Where is coffee grown?

Coffee is grown in more than 50 countries across tropical and sub-tropical regions. Many of these countries sit within the area commonly known as the "coffee belt".

Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia are among the world's leading coffee producers. Production levels in these countries can have a significant impact on global supply and coffee prices.

Rank Top Producer Coffee Production
1 Brazil 2.6 million metric tonnes
2 Vietnam 1.7 million metric tonnes
3 Colombia 0.81 million metric tonnes

Coffee can be grown at different altitudes depending on the variety and local climate. Higher-altitude crops are commonly found closer to the equator, while lower-altitude crops can be grown in regions with distinct dry and rainy seasons.

What are the different coffee varieties?

The two main coffee varieties traded globally are Arabica and Robusta. Their different characteristics can influence consumer demand, market pricing and volatility.

Arabica

Arabica is generally considered the premium and more flavourful coffee bean. It often attracts a higher market price and is commonly associated with more stable price trends.

Robusta

Robusta has a stronger, more bitter flavour and contains more caffeine than Arabica. Its price movements can appeal to traders seeking greater volatility.

What moves the price of coffee?

Coffee prices are primarily influenced by supply and demand. However, the global coffee market is complex and prices can respond quickly to changes in production, transportation and financial markets.

The Climate
Distribution Costs
Geopolitics
+
Consumer Health Trends
$
US Dollar Strength
Global Supply & Demand

The climate

Coffee crops are highly sensitive to changing weather conditions. If conditions are not suitable for healthy crops, supply can decrease and prices may rise.

Distribution costs

Coffee is transported around the world, meaning fuel and transportation costs can affect the cost of moving coffee from producers to consumers.

Geopolitics

Political uncertainty in a coffee-producing country can disrupt supply chains, create uncertainty and contribute to increased market volatility.

Global health trends

Changing attitudes towards coffee and its potential health effects can influence consumer behaviour and therefore global demand.

The strength of the US dollar

Coffee is priced in US dollars. Changes in the strength of the dollar can therefore influence the effective price of coffee for buyers using other currencies.

Supply and demand

If demand exceeds available supply, prices may rise. If supply exceeds demand, prices may fall. Disruptions anywhere in the production or distribution chain can therefore have a significant impact.

Four steps to start trading coffee

Choose a coffee asset

Decide which type of exposure to the coffee market best suits your objectives, including futures, CFDs, shares or ETFs.

Decide how to trade

Choose a financial instrument and trading approach that matches your experience, strategy and risk appetite.

Create a risk strategy

Consider using appropriate risk management tools, including stops and limits, to help manage potential losses.

Open and monitor

Once your analysis is complete, open your position and monitor developments that could affect coffee prices.

How can you trade coffee?

Coffee futures

Futures are contracts in which traders agree to exchange a set amount of an underlying commodity at a set price on a set date. Coffee futures are traded on futures exchanges and provide direct exposure to coffee price movements.

Coffee CFDs

CFDs allow traders to speculate on changing coffee prices without buying or selling the underlying futures contract.

CFDs use leverage, meaning traders can gain exposure to a larger position by depositing a smaller amount of capital. Leverage can magnify both potential profits and potential losses.

Coffee-related shares

Traders and investors can also gain exposure through shares of companies involved in the coffee industry. These shares may be influenced by coffee prices as well as company-specific factors.

Coffee ETFs

Exchange-traded funds can provide exposure to coffee benchmarks or baskets of companies connected to the coffee industry, depending on the structure of the fund.

Create your coffee trading risk strategy

All trading involves risk, especially when trading leveraged products. Before opening a position, traders should consider how much they are prepared to risk and how they will manage potential losses.

Stops can be used to close a position if the market moves against the trader beyond a chosen level. Limits can also be used to set a level at which a position is closed to realise potential profits.

A coffee trading plan should consider:
  • Position size
  • Potential volatility
  • Stop-loss levels
  • Profit targets
  • Market-moving events

Coffee trading strategies

Coffee trading strategies can be adapted to trending markets, consolidating markets and periods of increased volatility.

Trend Following

Trading trending markets

When a coffee market forms higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows, traders may use indicators such as moving averages and MACD to identify potential trading signals.

Range Trading

Trading consolidating markets

Consolidating markets typically remain between support and resistance levels. Traders may look to identify potential entry and exit points within the established range.

Volatility

Trading coffee volatility

Coffee prices can be highly volatile due to the many factors influencing production and distribution. Indicators such as Bollinger Bands may help traders analyse periods of tightening price action and potential breakouts.

Open and monitor your first coffee trade

Once you have completed your market analysis and selected your trading method, you can consider entering the market.

If you expect coffee prices to rise

A trader may consider opening a buy position if their analysis suggests that coffee prices could increase.

If you expect coffee prices to fall

A trader may consider opening a sell position if their analysis suggests that coffee prices could decline.

After opening a position, it is important to monitor the trade and remain aware of developments that could affect the coffee market, including weather, production data, distribution costs, geopolitics and currency movements.

What are coffee trading hours?

Coffee futures are traded across global financial markets. The following indicative trading hours are based on the relevant exchange schedules.

Coffee Type & Location Trading Hours
Arabica — New York 04:15:05 – 13:30:30 New York time
Robusta — New York 04:00:05 – 12:30:00 New York time
Arabica — London 09:15:05 – 18:30:30 UK time
Robusta — London 09:00:05 – 17:30:00 UK time
Arabica — Singapore 17:15:05 – 02:30:30 Singapore time
Robusta — Singapore 17:00:05 – 01:30:00 Singapore time
Trading hours are set by ICE and may vary. Hours can also change between March and November as the UK and US move between daylight saving and standard time on different dates. Singapore remains on Singapore Standard Time (UTC+8) throughout the year.

Coffee trading in summary

Coffee is a global commodity market influenced by production, weather, transportation, currencies and consumer demand.

  • Coffee is one of the world's most actively traded commodities.
  • Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia are among the world's leading producers.
  • Arabica and Robusta are the two main coffee varieties.
  • Weather can have a significant impact on coffee production and prices.
  • Distribution costs and oil prices can affect the cost of moving coffee.
  • The strength of the US dollar can influence coffee prices.
  • Traders may use trend-following, range and volatility strategies.
  • Coffee can be traded through futures, CFDs, shares and ETFs.

Explore global commodity markets

Learn more about coffee, commodities and global financial markets before making your next trading decision.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.