- WTI sticks to a positive bias for the fourth straight day and climbs to a nearly three-week high.
- The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues to act as a tailwind for the commodity.
- A move beyond the 100-day SMA is needed to back the case for a further appreciating move.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – touches a nearly three-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it struggles to build on the momentum beyond the $85.00 mark. The commodity, however, sticks to a positive bias for the fourth straight day and seems poised to appreciate further amid geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff.
President Donald Trump posted a map on Truth Social depicting the strategic Strait of Hormuz as the new US territory and said that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, on the other hand, said the critical waterway would remain closed until the US fulfills conditions agreed under a June memorandum of understanding. This keeps the war-risk premium in play and validates the near-term positive outlook for crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a near-term bullish bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.90 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.47 both suggest mildly constructive momentum. The broader structure still points to limited upside while price remains capped below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance at $86.09 and the 50.0% retracement at $87.06.
This is followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level at $91.73, which would mark a stronger bullish trigger if reclaimed. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $82.38, ahead of deeper structural floors at $76.60 and $67.25, where buyers would be expected to show more robust interest on a larger pullback.
