WTI crude oil and gasoline futures finished Friday higher after fluctuating between gains and losses, with renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure providing support to energy prices. However, gains remained limited as diplomatic developments involving the United States and Iran raised the possibility of a resolution to the conflict and a potential restoration of disrupted Middle Eastern energy supplies.
December 2026 WTI crude oil settled at $91.31 per barrel, gaining 31 cents, or 0.34%. December RBOB gasoline closed at $2.7893 per gallon, up 1.33 cents, or 0.48%.
The market enters Monday facing competing supply and geopolitical pressures. Attacks on Russian refineries and historically low US distillate inventories are providing underlying support, while higher Saudi production, continued Middle Eastern exports and possible progress in US-Iran negotiations are limiting the upside.
Market Snapshot
| Market Indicator | Latest Figure |
|---|---|
| December 2026 WTI Crude | $91.31 |
| WTI Daily Change | +$0.31 (+0.34%) |
| December 2026 RBOB Gasoline | $2.7893 |
| RBOB Daily Change | +$0.0133 (+0.48%) |
| Saudi October Crude Production | 9.2 million bpd |
| OPEC October Production | 22.8 million bpd |
| Middle Eastern October Exports | 15.53 million bpd |
| US Distillate Inventories | 23-year low |
| IEA Estimated Global Oil Deficit | 1.7 million bpd |
Current Price Action: Crude and Gasoline Finish Higher
WTI crude and RBOB gasoline futures moved between positive and negative territory during Friday’s session before settling higher.
December WTI gained 31 cents to close at $91.31 per barrel, while December RBOB gasoline advanced 1.33 cents to $2.7893 per gallon.
The recovery reflected renewed concern about potential supply disruptions following Ukraine’s intensified attacks on Russian oil-processing infrastructure. However, the market remained cautious as diplomatic developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict introduced the possibility of improved supply availability.
The competing influences are likely to remain central to Monday’s trading direction.
Monday Market Outlook: Russian Supply Risks Versus Middle East Diplomacy
Oil markets head into Monday with geopolitical developments likely to remain the dominant short-term influence.
Ukraine’s latest drone attacks on Russian refineries have increased concerns about disruption to refining capacity and the availability of global distillate supplies. The reported shutdown of Russia’s Yanos refinery adds to those concerns.
At the same time, signs of progress in discussions between Washington and Tehran are limiting the potential for further price gains. Any meaningful breakthrough could reduce the risk premium currently reflected in energy prices and potentially allow more Middle Eastern supply to reach international markets.
For Monday, traders will be watching for further developments on both fronts. Additional attacks on Russian energy infrastructure could support crude, while credible progress towards a US-Iran agreement could trigger renewed selling.
Russian Refinery Attacks: Supply Disruption Supports Crude Prices
Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, launching a drone strike on a sixth Russian crude-processing plant within a week.
Russia’s Yanos refinery, which has a processing capacity of approximately 300,000 barrels per day, reportedly halted operations following a drone attack late Wednesday.
The latest incident adds to wider disruption across Russia’s refining sector. Ukraine has attacked six of Russia’s ten largest oil-processing plants in recent months.
According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million barrels per day in July, the lowest level in 24 years, amid damage caused by Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. Processing rates recovered to 3.98 million barrels per day in September, although damaged facilities have continued to experience difficulties returning to operation.
Further disruption could tighten global distillate availability and support crude prices, particularly while US inventories remain under pressure.
US Distillate Inventories: Supply Tightness Adds Support
The latest weekly EIA report showed US distillate inventories falling to a 23-year low.
The decline is an important supporting factor for the energy complex because distillates include products such as diesel and heating oil, which are sensitive to refinery availability and supply disruptions.
With Russian refining capacity under pressure, the combination of lower US inventories and potential restrictions on global distillate supplies could increase market sensitivity to further refinery disruptions.
US-Iran Diplomacy: Potential Breakthrough Limits Upside
Diplomatic developments involving the United States and Iran are providing a counterweight to supply concerns.
Iran has reportedly shown a willingness to discuss aspects of its nuclear programme that were previously considered off the table, raising expectations that negotiations could move towards a potential breakthrough.
Qatar, which is mediating discussions, said Friday that Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani had spoken with President Trump about efforts to resolve differences between Washington and Tehran and secure a comprehensive agreement to end the conflict.
Speculation that Democrats regaining control of Congress in the US midterm elections could accelerate efforts to end the war has also contributed to expectations of a diplomatic resolution.
A successful agreement could reduce geopolitical risk premiums and improve the outlook for Middle Eastern energy flows. However, until a formal resolution emerges, the threat of further disruption remains.
Saudi Arabia: Aramco Price Decision and Higher Production
Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer Aramco reduced its December crude prices for Asian buyers by $2 per barrel.
The reduction was smaller than market expectations, which had anticipated a cut of approximately $5 per barrel. The smaller adjustment suggests that Saudi Arabia is maintaining a relatively firm pricing position despite concerns surrounding demand and global supply.
Saudi production also increased significantly in October.
Saudi Arabia reported crude production of 9.2 million barrels per day, an increase of 970,000 bpd, or approximately 12% month-on-month. Production has continued to recover from the 36-year low recorded in August.
Higher Saudi output is a bearish influence on crude prices, although production and shipping remain exposed to regional security risks, including Houthi missile attacks and threats to oil shipments near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Middle Eastern Exports: Oil Continues to Flow Despite Conflict
Despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict, oil exports from the Middle East have continued.
Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait increased 10% to 15.53 million barrels per day in October, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
The figure was broadly in line with export levels recorded at the beginning of the year.
This is an important consideration for the market because it suggests that regional tensions have not yet resulted in a sustained collapse in exports from the major producers covered by the data.
If shipments remain stable or increase further, the supply impact of the conflict may be less severe than initially feared.
OPEC Production: Output Reaches an Eight-Month High
OPEC crude production increased by 930,000 barrels per day in October to 22.8 million bpd, its highest level in eight months.
OPEC+ previously agreed to keep production quotas unchanged for December. The group had also approved a final production increase of 188,000 bpd for September as part of its wider programme to restore earlier supply reductions.
On paper, OPEC+ has restored the 1.65 million bpd of production it cut in 2023 and indicated that it intended to hold output steady for the remainder of the year following the September increase.
However, the ability to deliver planned production increases remains subject to Middle Eastern shipping disruptions and regional security conditions.
Higher production is a potential source of downward pressure on crude, although supply constraints could prevent the full planned volumes from reaching the market.
Global Oil Demand: IEA Warns of Significant Consumption Weakness
The International Energy Agency warned on September 11 that high oil prices and restricted supply could contribute to the largest annual decline in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite the projected demand weakness, the IEA raised its estimate of the global oil deficit for the year to 1.7 million barrels per day, up from its previous estimate of 1.3 million bpd.
The agency attributed the wider deficit to restricted supply associated with the US-Iran conflict.
The IEA also indicated that a return to a global oil surplus could be delayed until 2027, later than its previous expectation of late 2026.
The combination of weaker demand and tighter supply creates a complicated outlook: reduced consumption could limit price gains, while restricted production and exports could keep the market undersupplied.
Bullish Sentiment: Factors That Could Support Oil Prices
- Russian refinery disruption: Ukraine’s intensified drone attacks have damaged Russian energy infrastructure, including the Yanos refinery, which has a capacity of 300,000 bpd.
- Low US distillate inventories: US distillate stocks have fallen to a 23-year low, increasing sensitivity to further supply disruption.
- Higher-than-expected Aramco pricing: Saudi Arabia’s $2 reduction for Asian buyers was smaller than the anticipated $5 cut.
- IEA global deficit forecast: The IEA raised its estimated global oil deficit to 1.7 million bpd.
- Regional shipping risks: Houthi threats to shipping near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could create further uncertainty around oil transportation.
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions: The US-Iran conflict continues to represent a potential source of disruption to global energy supplies.
Bearish Sentiment: Factors Weighing on Oil Prices
- Potential US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough: Progress in negotiations could reduce geopolitical risk premiums and improve the outlook for Middle Eastern supply.
- Higher Saudi production: October output increased by 970,000 bpd to 9.2 million bpd.
- Rising OPEC production: OPEC output increased to an eight-month high of 22.8 million bpd.
- Continued Middle Eastern exports: Combined exports from four major regional producers increased 10% to 15.53 million bpd in October.
- Demand weakness: The IEA has warned of a significant annual decline in global oil consumption.
- Potential OPEC+ supply availability: Although shipping disruption may constrain deliveries, the group has restored its previously announced production cuts on paper.
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Should Watch Next
WTI crude enters Monday with a cautiously supported outlook, although the market remains exposed to sharp moves in response to geopolitical developments.
The immediate bullish influence is the disruption to Russian refining capacity, particularly as US distillate inventories remain at historically low levels. Further attacks on Russian energy infrastructure could increase concerns about available refined products and provide support for crude.
However, the diplomatic situation involving the United States and Iran could quickly change the balance. A credible breakthrough would reduce concerns about regional supply disruption and could encourage traders to remove some of the geopolitical premium from oil prices.
Saudi production and OPEC output also remain important. Higher production could limit rallies if exports continue flowing without significant disruption.
For Monday, traders will be watching whether Russian supply concerns remain dominant or whether diplomatic optimism becomes the stronger influence. Friday’s settlement gains indicate some underlying support, but the market has not yet established a clear directional trend.
Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions
The oil market remains caught between tightening supply risks and the possibility of improved availability from the Middle East.
Russian refinery attacks, low US distillate inventories and the IEA’s projected global deficit are providing underlying support. However, higher Saudi and OPEC production, continued Middle Eastern exports and potential progress in US-Iran negotiations are limiting the upside.
The near-term outlook remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Further damage to Russian energy infrastructure could push prices higher, while diplomatic progress could trigger a reversal in sentiment.
Monday’s session will provide an early indication of which influence is taking control as traders position ahead of further developments in the coming week.
Today Markets Analysis
WTI crude’s modest Friday recovery reflects the market’s continued sensitivity to supply disruption. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are creating concerns about refining capacity and distillate availability at a time when US inventories are already exceptionally low.
However, the market is not facing a straightforward supply-driven rally. Middle Eastern exports remain active, Saudi production has recovered sharply and OPEC output has reached an eight-month high. At the same time, diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran could reduce the geopolitical premium supporting prices.
The key question for Monday is whether supply disruption risks outweigh expectations of a potential diplomatic resolution. Until there is greater clarity, crude oil is likely to remain volatile, with traders reacting quickly to developments across Russia and the Middle East.
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Risk Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell futures, options, contracts for difference or any other financial instrument. Energy markets are volatile and involve substantial risk. Prices and market conditions can change rapidly. Traders should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
