ING’s Chris Turner projects EUR/USD to trade soft in a 1.10–1.15 range over the next four to five months as French budget politics keep a risk premium in the Euro ahead of April elections.

French risks cap Euro near term

“French budgetary politics look set to keep a risk premium in the euro ahead of April’s elections.”

“We therefore see EUR/USD trading offered in a 1.10-15 range over the next four to five months.”

“From the second quarter, however, softer US rates, moderating energy prices and clarity on French politics could trigger a gentle recovery in EUR/USD towards 1.18 by year-end 2027.”