Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen reports that the Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped briefly after the RBA left its policy rate unchanged, as markets interpreted the statement and downgraded growth and inflation forecasts as dovish. Governor Bullock later stressed that another hike is “quite possible” and that the economy remains above capacity, while Rabobank’s Australia strategist still expects one more rate increase in November.

RBA pause but hawkish tone

“The Australian dollar also slipped briefly after today’s RBA decision. The central bank kept its policy rate unchanged as expected, but traders read some dovish language in the statement, and the downward revisions to the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts.”

“However, RBA Governor Bullock corrected that in her press conference. She commented that policymakers debated whether to hold or to hike, adding that it is “quite possible” that the RBA needs to hike rates again.”

“As our Australia strategist noted prior to today’s meeting, the RBA seems to hope that the three rate hikes since the start of the year will be sufficient to dampen domestic demand. However, we are not entirely convinced that it is. Accordingly, we forecast that the central bank will have to raise rates once more, in November.”