- WTI is seen consolidating its recent move higher to a two-week top, set earlier this Tuesday.
- Supply concerns stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz lend support.
- The bullish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent upward trajectory.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – enters a bullish consolidation phase after hitting an over two-week high during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades around the $84.20 region. Uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keep the geopolitical risk premium in play and continue to act as a tailwind for the black liquid.
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a near-term bullish bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide. Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive and back the case for a further near-term appreciating move. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 56, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is above zero and edging higher.
Bullish pressure, however, still needs to clear a key structural barrier near the $86.65-$86.70 confluence – comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward-sloping trend line. The 50.0% Fibo. level reinforces the overhead hurdle at $87.23, which, if cleared, should pave the way for an extension of the upward trajectory towards the stronger resistance near the 61.8% Fibo. level, at $91.93.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $82.53, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $76.72 if sellers regain control. Some follow-through selling would expose the monthly swing low, around mid-$73.00s, before WTI eventually drops to test sub-$70.00 levels.
