Ripple is under pressure ahead of the Fed decision. Check whether the XRP price could fall to parity, and see the latest on-chain data and technical analysis.

• Uncertainty ahead of the Fed decision is weighing on the entire crypto market, pushing XRP toward the $1 support level.
• Despite price declines, XRP outflows from exchanges and rising interest in derivatives may point to token accumulation.
• Major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH) are also falling, while investors are watching capital rotation from the AI sector into selected DeFi projects.

XRP Price: Will Ripple fall back to parity? What does the Fed decision mean for the crypto market?

The crypto market is under downward pressure ahead of a key U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on interest rates. Ripple (XRP) continues to sell off, pushing prices toward the crucial support zone at $1.00. At the same time, mixed signals are emerging. On one hand, growing interest in derivatives and shrinking token reserves on exchanges suggest that some investors may be using the dip to accumulate. On the other hand, sentiment still points to a lack of long-term prospects for a rebound.

The Fed’s rate decision weighs on the crypto market

Weakness in crypto and rising risk aversion stem directly from uncertainty around the Fed’s decision. Moreover, the recent sell-off in AI-related stocks is not helping crypto sentiment, given the historically strong correlation between the tech-heavy Nasdaq and leading cryptocurrencies. Although market consensus assumes rates will be left unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, and interest rate futures currently price a 36% chance of a hike, the tone of Kevin Warsh’s remarks could be the biggest driver of moves not only for traditional assets like the dollar and bonds, but also for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. Loretta Mester, former president of the Cleveland Fed, notes that central bank officials face the difficult task of assessing whether the current rate level will effectively bring inflation down to the 2% target. Meanwhile, Chair Warsh’s statements clearly suggest no tolerance for persistent price pressures. This wait-and-see stance is putting pressure on the entire industry:

• Mass liquidations: Coinglass data show that positions of more than 118,000 traders, worth over $400 million, were liquidated in just 24 hours.
• ETF outflows: Spot ETFs recorded net outflows of more than $240 million from Bitcoin funds and $70 million from Ethereum funds in recent days, although 10-session averages still point to inflows.

Ripple (XRP) technical analysis: Bears remain in control

XRP is currently hovering near $1.05, maintaining a bearish setup in the short term. The price has stayed above the parity level since November 2024 and sits below the middle Bollinger Band and the 50-period moving average. It is worth noting that consolidation has been visible near $1.10 since June, while the previous consolidation phase from February to May took place around $1.40. From the August 2025 highs, XRP has lost more than 70% of its value. If Ripple were to fall below $1.00, the next major support is slightly above $0.70.

On-chain signals and derivatives: Open Interest rises, Binance sees XRP deposit declines

Despite the price drop, market data show some bullish signals beneath the surface-level selling pressure:

• Open Interest jump in futures: Open Interest (OI) in XRP derivatives has risen to 2.25 to 2.35 billion XRP. Sustained demand in derivatives could stabilize the price and lay the groundwork for a rebound attempt.
• Falling reserves on Binance: XRP balances on Binance slipped to 2.60 billion XRP (from 2.61 billion the day before and 2.71 billion at the start of June). Moving tokens off exchanges suggests reduced immediate sell-side liquidity and a desire to accumulate in external wallets.

The broader crypto market: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and rotation from AI

Price pressure has also hit market leaders. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $63,000, while Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $1,870, even though earlier in the week there was speculation about a potential break above $2,000.

Capital rotation: From artificial intelligence to crypto and DeFi

A potentially interesting macro trend may be emerging. Some experts are declaring the “end of the AI bull market” and pointing to capital rotation into digital assets. An example of rising institutional interest is Bitmine Tom Lee’s purchase of 9,946 ETH, which pushed the ETH/BTC ratio to a three-month high. On a daily basis, the market is showing significant sector divergence:

• Top gainers (DeFi): Curve DAO and Uniswap are showing local resilience despite the broader market decline (where the median return was -2.38%).
• Projects under pressure (GameFi / Move-to-Earn): Gala, STEPN, and Zcash.
• Oversold signals: VeChain (-1.73σ) and SushiSwap (-1.64σ) are at standard-deviation levels suggesting historical undervaluation.

The upcoming FOMC decision will determine whether the increase in capital flowing from rotation out of AI can offset macro risk aversion and protect XRP from a test of $1.00, or prevent Bitcoin from falling below $60,000.