Coffee prices remain under pressure after arabica futures fell to a seven-week low, with expanding Brazilian exports and expectations of a record global harvest weighing on market sentiment. December arabica coffee (KCZ26) settled down 6.40 points, or 2.29%, on Monday, while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF27) closed 3 points lower, a decline of 0.09%.
The market is increasingly focused on the prospect of larger supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, alongside improving growing conditions in key producing regions. However, relatively tight certified arabica inventories, lower Indian production estimates and the risk of El Niño-related disruption continue to provide underlying support.
Coffee Market Snapshot
| Market Indicator | Latest Position |
|---|---|
| December arabica futures | -6.40 points (-2.29%) |
| January robusta futures | -3 points (-0.09%) |
| Arabica market trend | Seven-week low |
| Brazil October coffee exports | 287,000 MT (+23% y/y) |
| India 2026/27 production estimate | 380,000 MT (-5% from previous estimate) |
| ICE arabica inventories | 220,379 bags |
| ICE robusta inventories | 6,646 lots |
| Brazilian coffee awaiting ICE grading | 62,849 bags |
| Brazil ICE arabica inventories | 103,457 bags |
| ICO 2025/26 global production | Record 183.6 million bags |
| ICO projected global surplus | 3 million bags |
| USDA 2026/27 global production forecast | Record 189.7 million bags |
Brazilian Coffee Exports Increase as Supply Pressure Builds
Brazilian export growth remains one of the principal bearish influences on coffee prices. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that October coffee exports increased 23% year-on-year to 287,000 metric tonnes, reinforcing expectations that larger volumes will be available to international buyers.
September exports had already increased by more than 20% year-on-year to 236,000 tonnes. The sustained expansion in shipments is adding pressure to arabica prices as traders assess the availability of Brazilian coffee across the global market.
Brazil’s 2026 production outlook also points towards increased supply. Conab raised its forecast for the country’s 2026 coffee crop to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million bags. Arabica production is expected to increase 34.8% year-on-year to 48.21 million bags, although robusta output is forecast to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags.
The USDA’s earlier forecast was even higher, projecting a record Brazilian crop of 71.9 million bags in 2026/27, representing an annual increase of 14%.
ICE Coffee Inventories: Arabica Remains Tight Despite Incoming Brazilian Supply
Certified inventories remain an important counterweight to the bearish production outlook.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a seven-week low of 220,379 bags last Tuesday. This remains only modestly above the 27-year low of 217,646 bags recorded on September 15.
However, Brazilian coffee is increasingly arriving at ICE warehouses. A total of 62,849 bags were awaiting grading last Friday, the highest amount in seven weeks. Coffee must pass the exchange’s grading process before being added to certified inventory figures, and this can take one to two weeks or longer when volumes are elevated.
Brazilian coffee held in ICE warehouses subsequently increased to a 14-month high of 103,457 bags on Monday. The pace at which these deliveries become certified stocks will be important for determining whether the tight arabica inventory position begins to ease.
Robusta inventories have followed a different trajectory. ICE robusta stocks reached a 1.25-year high of 6,809 lots on October 29 before easing to 6,646 lots on Monday.
Vietnam Exports and Production Add to Robusta Supply Concerns
Vietnam’s expanding coffee exports are adding pressure to robusta prices. The country’s National Statistics Office reported that October coffee exports increased 61% year-on-year to 114,000 metric tonnes.
Exports between January and October reached 1.57 million tonnes, up 18.8% from the same period a year earlier. Vietnam’s full-year 2025 exports had already increased 17.5% to 1.58 million tonnes.
Production expectations are also improving. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee crop is projected to rise 6% year-on-year to a four-year high of 1.76 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags.
Favourable rainfall has improved soil moisture in the Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-producing region, supporting expectations for stronger cherry development.
Nevertheless, the outlook is not without risk. Vietnam’s Agriculture Ministry has warned that the Central Highlands could face an El Niño-related drought later this year and in early 2027.
India Production Estimate Cut Provides Some Support
Losses in robusta coffee have been more limited following a reduction in India’s production forecast.
India’s Coffee Board lowered its 2026/27 production estimate to 380,000 metric tonnes from 400,000 tonnes, a reduction of 5%, citing below-normal monsoon rainfall.
India is the world’s fifth-largest robusta coffee producer, making the revised estimate relevant to the global supply outlook.
Positioning could also contribute to increased volatility. The latest weekly Commitment of Traders report showed funds increased their net-short robusta positions by 4,767 contracts in the week ended November 3, taking the total to 16,968 contracts. This was the largest net-short position in almost four years.
Such positioning leaves the market exposed to short-covering if unexpected supply disruptions or bullish developments emerge.
Brazilian and Vietnamese Weather Conditions Remain Important
Weather conditions across Brazil and Vietnam will remain central to the next phase of the coffee market.
In Brazil, Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received 29.6 mm of rainfall in the week ended October 25, equivalent to 82% of its historical average. The region is the country’s principal arabica-growing area.
Above-normal rainfall during the critical flowering stage could support the development of Brazil’s 2026/27 crop, potentially increasing future supply and adding further pressure to prices.
In Vietnam, recent abundant rainfall has improved soil moisture levels and is expected to support coffee cherry development across the Central Highlands.
However, concerns about a potentially strong El Niño weather pattern remain a longer-term risk. Drought conditions in Brazil and Vietnam could affect flowering, crop development and eventual yields, particularly if the weather pattern intensifies into 2027.
Colombia Production Decline Offers a Counterweight
Not all major producing regions are reporting stronger output.
Colombia’s Coffee Federation reported that 2025/26 production fell 15% year-on-year to 12.65 million bags. Exports declined 12% to 11.78 million bags.
Colombia is the world’s second-largest arabica producer, making its lower production and export figures relevant to the availability of higher-quality arabica supplies.
Nevertheless, the impact of reduced Colombian output is being offset by stronger Brazilian exports and expectations of increased global production.
Global Coffee Surplus Forecasts Weigh on Market Sentiment
The broader global supply outlook remains a significant bearish factor.
The International Coffee Organization projected that 2025/26 global coffee production increased 4.4% year-on-year to a record 183.6 million bags. Consumption was forecast to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, leaving the market with a surplus of approximately 3 million bags.
The USDA’s biannual forecast also points towards expanding global supply. It expects 2026/27 production to increase 6%, or 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags.
Arabica production is forecast to rise 12% year-on-year, while robusta output is expected to decline 0.7%. Global ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.
These forecasts reinforce expectations that the global coffee market could move into a more comfortable supply position, although weather-related risks remain a potential source of disruption.
Bullish Coffee Market Sentiment
- Tight arabica inventories: ICE arabica stocks remain close to their 27-year low, limiting immediately available certified supply.
- India production downgrade: The Coffee Board’s reduction of its 2026/27 estimate to 380,000 tonnes provides support to the robusta market.
- Colombian production decline: Lower Colombian production and exports could tighten the availability of arabica supplies.
- El Niño risk: Potential drought conditions in Brazil and Vietnam could threaten the next production cycle.
- Robusta short positioning: Funds hold a substantial net-short position, creating the possibility of short-covering if market sentiment changes.
Bearish Coffee Market Sentiment
- Rising Brazilian exports: October shipments increased 23% year-on-year to 287,000 tonnes, highlighting stronger export availability.
- Higher Brazilian production: Conab raised its 2026 crop estimate, while the USDA expects a record 2026/27 harvest.
- Growing Vietnamese exports: October exports surged 61% year-on-year, with January-October shipments up 18.8%.
- Improving growing conditions: Rainfall across Brazil and Vietnam is supporting crop development and potentially higher future output.
- Global surplus expectations: The ICO forecast a 3-million-bag surplus for 2025/26, while USDA projections point to another record production year in 2026/27.
- Rising robusta inventories: ICE robusta stocks remain substantially above their early-October levels.
Coffee Price Forecast: What Traders Should Watch
The near-term outlook remains under pressure, particularly for arabica, as traders respond to rising Brazilian exports and expectations of a larger global crop.
The key inventory question is whether Brazilian coffee currently awaiting grading at ICE warehouses will translate into a meaningful increase in certified stocks. If these deliveries are approved at a sustained pace, the market’s tight arabica inventory position could begin to ease.
For robusta, attention will remain on Vietnam’s export performance, India’s revised production outlook and the unusually large speculative short position. Continued export growth could weigh on prices, although the concentration of short positions may amplify any upward correction.
Weather forecasts will also remain important. Favourable rainfall could reinforce expectations of stronger production, while evidence of emerging drought conditions linked to El Niño could quickly alter the supply outlook.
Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions
Coffee markets face competing supply signals, but the immediate balance of evidence remains tilted towards the bearish side. Brazilian export growth, higher Vietnamese shipments and expectations of record global production are weighing on prices.
Arabica’s relatively low certified inventories offer some protection against further declines, although the arrival of Brazilian coffee at ICE warehouses could gradually reduce that support.
Robusta remains exposed to additional pressure from Vietnam’s expanding exports, but the sizeable speculative short position creates the potential for sharp reversals if production concerns intensify.
For the coming sessions, traders will be watching Brazilian warehouse certifications, export data, inventory movements and weather developments across the main producing regions. The market’s direction will depend on whether expanding physical supply continues to outweigh the risks associated with tight certified stocks and potential El Niño disruption.
Today Markets Analysis
The coffee market is increasingly being driven by the contrast between expanding export availability and weather-related production uncertainty. Brazil and Vietnam are supplying larger volumes, while global production forecasts point towards a more comfortable supply balance.
However, low arabica inventories and the possibility of weather disruption mean that the market is not without upside risk. Traders should distinguish between the current availability of certified stocks and forecasts for future harvests, as these factors can influence prices over different time horizons.
The next major test will be whether incoming Brazilian coffee translates into higher certified ICE inventories and whether export growth continues at its recent pace.
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Risk Disclaimer
This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Commodity and foreign-exchange markets involve significant risk, and prices can move rapidly in response to supply, demand, weather, economic and geopolitical developments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
