Today Markets Analysis
Live cattle futures fell sharply on Thursday, while feeder cattle also posted substantial losses as traders reacted to the planned reopening of the Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing and positioned ahead of Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report.
Live cattle futures declined between $2.80 and $3.95, while feeder cattle futures dropped between $3.55 and $5.27.
Cash cattle trade was reported at $350-$355 dressed in the North, with live trade around $222-$223 and some bids reaching $224 in the South.
The Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange auction offered 1,514 head, but recorded no sales despite bids of $222-$223.
The major catalyst behind the futures weakness was the USDA announcement that the Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing is scheduled to reopen next Thursday.
The reopening could improve cattle flows and alter the balance of supply available to U.S. feedlots and processors.
Meanwhile, USDA Export Sales showed 14,155 tonnes of beef sales for 2026 during the week ending September 10, the highest level in five weeks.
However, shipments were only 9,881 tonnes, the lowest weekly total in a year.
The market is also awaiting Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report. August placements are expected to be down 3.3%, while marketings are projected to decline 4%. September 1 cattle-on-feed inventories are estimated to be 1.7% above the same period last year.
The result is a cattle market facing competing forces: tight slaughter numbers and reduced placements versus increased potential supply from border reopening, weaker beef shipments and uncertainty surrounding feedlot inventories.
Cattle Market Snapshot
| Factor | Current Signal |
|---|---|
| Oct 26 Live Cattle | $215.650 |
| Daily move | -$2.800 |
| Dec 26 Live Cattle | $216.250 |
| Daily move | -$3.950 |
| Sep 26 Feeder Cattle | $334.825 |
| Daily move | -$3.650 |
| Oct 26 Feeder Cattle | $324.375 |
| Daily move | -$5.275 |
| Northern cash cattle | $350-$355 dressed |
| Southern live cattle | $222-$223 |
| Beef export sales | 14,155 MT — 5-week high |
| Beef shipments | 9,881 MT — 1-year low |
| Border crossing | Santa Teresa reopening next Thursday |
| Sep 1 cattle on feed | Estimated +1.7% YoY |
| Aug placements | Estimated -3.3% YoY |
| Aug marketings | Estimated -4% YoY |
Why Cattle Futures Are Falling
The immediate catalyst was the announcement that the Santa Teresa border crossing is scheduled to reopen.
The border is important to the North American cattle supply chain, and the reopening could improve the movement of cattle into the United States.
That creates a potential increase in available supply and has therefore placed pressure on futures.
The market was already showing weakness before Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report.
With September 1 inventories expected to be higher than last year, traders are assessing whether feedlot supplies could remain sufficiently large to maintain slaughter levels despite lower recent marketings.
At the same time, cash cattle prices remain historically elevated, creating an important divergence between the physical market and futures.
Cash Cattle Remains Firm
Despite the sharp futures decline, cash cattle remained relatively firm.
Northern dressed trade was reported at $350-$355, while Southern live trade was around $222-$223, with some bids reaching $224.
However, the Fed Cattle Exchange auction produced no transactions from the 1,514 head offered.
The lack of completed sales provides limited confirmation of where the broader cash market is heading.
The relationship between cash prices and futures will therefore remain important.
If cash cattle continues holding firm while futures decline, the market could be signalling expectations for weaker prices further forward rather than immediate physical weakness.
Beef Demand Provides a Mixed Signal
USDA Export Sales provided an important positive signal on demand.
Beef sales reached 14,155 tonnes, the highest weekly level in five weeks.
That suggests international demand remains active.
However, shipments were considerably weaker.
Only 9,881 tonnes were shipped during the week, the lowest weekly total in a year.
That creates an unusual combination:
Strong new sales commitments + weak physical shipments.
Traders will therefore need to determine whether the higher sales figure translates into stronger shipments in the coming weeks.
If it does, export demand could provide additional support to cattle prices.
If shipments remain depressed, the recent increase in sales could prove less supportive than the headline figure suggests.
USDA Cattle on Feed Report Is the Next Major Catalyst
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report could significantly influence cattle futures.
Current expectations point toward:
- August placements: -3.3%
- August marketings: -4%
- September 1 cattle on feed: +1.7%
Lower placements are potentially supportive for the longer-term supply outlook because fewer cattle are entering feedlots.
However, a higher overall on-feed inventory suggests that available supplies remain substantial.
Marketings are also expected to decline.
The report could therefore create volatility depending on how the actual figures compare with expectations.
A smaller-than-expected inventory could strengthen concerns about future beef supplies.
A larger-than-expected inventory could reinforce the bearish pressure already visible in futures.
Slaughter Numbers Remain Below Last Year
USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 107,000 head on Thursday, bringing the weekly total to approximately 420,000 head.
The weekly figure was substantially higher than the previous week because of the holiday adjustment.
However, it remained 43,870 head below the same week last year.
That is an important supply-side signal.
Lower slaughter relative to last year can limit near-term beef production and potentially support wholesale beef prices.
But wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker on Thursday.
Wholesale Beef Prices Are Falling
The afternoon boxed-beef report showed additional pressure.
Choice boxed beef declined $3.66 to $372.15, while Select fell $2.69 to $351.88.
The decline indicates that wholesale beef values are currently losing momentum despite relatively constrained slaughter.
If boxed-beef prices continue falling, processors could face reduced margins, potentially increasing pressure throughout the cattle complex.
The relationship between boxed beef, packer margins and cash cattle will therefore be an important indicator for the next phase of the market.
Bullish Sentiment
1. Lower Cattle Placements
August placements are expected to decline 3.3% from a year earlier.
Reduced placements can tighten future market-ready cattle supplies.
2. Cattle Slaughter Remains Below Last Year
Weekly slaughter is currently 43,870 head below the comparable week last year.
Reduced slaughter can constrain beef production.
3. Beef Export Sales Reached a Five-Week High
The latest USDA report showed 14,155 tonnes of beef sales, the highest weekly level in five weeks.
That provides evidence that international demand remains active.
4. Cash Cattle Prices Remain Elevated
Northern dressed cattle traded around $350-$355, while Southern live cattle traded around $222-$223.
Firm cash prices could eventually provide support to futures if the physical market remains resilient.
5. Lower Future Supply Could Become Important
If placements remain below previous-year levels, the reduction in animals entering feedlots could eventually translate into tighter supplies of market-ready cattle.
Bearish Sentiment
1. Border Reopening Could Increase Supply
The planned reopening of the Santa Teresa border crossing could improve cattle flows into the United States.
That could increase available supplies and reduce some of the scarcity premium currently reflected in the market.
2. Futures Fell Sharply
Live cattle declined as much as $3.95, while feeder cattle dropped more than $5 in the October contract.
The broad-based decline indicates significant selling pressure.
3. Cattle on Feed Inventories Are Expected to Increase
September 1 cattle-on-feed inventories are estimated to be 1.7% higher than last year.
A larger inventory could provide additional supply pressure.
4. Beef Shipments Fell to a One-Year Low
Weekly beef shipments were only 9,881 tonnes, the lowest total in a year.
If weak shipments persist, international demand may provide less support to the market.
5. Boxed Beef Prices Are Declining
Choice and Select boxed beef prices both fell on Thursday.
Continued weakness in wholesale beef could place pressure on packer margins and eventually filter through to cash cattle.
The Border Reopening Could Reshape the Supply Picture
The Santa Teresa reopening is particularly important because the cattle market has been operating under significant supply constraints.
Additional cross-border flows could change that balance.
The effect will depend on the speed and scale of cattle movement following the reopening.
If supplies increase substantially, feedlots could gain additional flexibility when sourcing animals.
If flows remain limited, the psychological impact on futures could prove larger than the actual physical impact.
For traders, the key issue is therefore not simply whether the border reopens, but how much additional cattle supply reaches the U.S. market afterward.
Cash Prices and Futures Are Sending Different Signals
One of the most important features of the current market is the divergence between cash and futures.
Cash cattle remain around:
$222-$224 live
while October live cattle futures settled at:
$215.65
That spread indicates that futures are pricing in a degree of caution about the forward market.
The difference could reflect expectations surrounding:
- Border reopening
- Feedlot inventories
- Beef demand
- Boxed-beef prices
- Friday’s Cattle on Feed report
- Seasonal changes in cattle supplies
The next several sessions should provide a clearer indication of whether the futures discount is justified by changing fundamentals.
What Traders Are Watching Next
The major cattle-market catalysts include:
- Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report
- September 1 cattle-on-feed inventory
- August placements
- August marketings
- Santa Teresa border reopening
- Cash cattle prices
- Fed Cattle Exchange results
- Weekly slaughter levels
- Choice boxed beef prices
- Select boxed beef prices
- Beef export sales
- Beef export shipments
- Packer margins
- Feeder cattle supplies
- Corn and feed costs
The relationship between feed costs and feeder cattle will also remain important.
Higher feed costs can reduce feedlot profitability, while lower feed costs can support demand for feeder cattle.
Currency Hedger View
Cattle producers, feedlots, processors and exporters can face both commodity-price risk and foreign-exchange risk.
The U.S. cattle market is primarily priced in dollars, but the broader North American supply chain involves cross-border transactions.
Currency movements can therefore affect the effective cost of cattle, feed, meat and other inputs when transactions involve different currencies.
For international meat buyers, a stronger U.S. dollar can increase the local-currency cost of U.S. beef even if the underlying cattle price remains unchanged.
For exporters, the relationship can work in the opposite direction depending on the currency in which revenues and costs are generated.
This creates a combined exposure:
Cattle price + beef price + USD exchange-rate risk.
Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group Ltd, focuses on foreign-exchange exposure and currency-risk management for businesses operating across international markets.
Today Markets View
The cattle market is entering an important period of price discovery.
Thursday’s futures decline reflects growing concern that the planned reopening of the Santa Teresa border crossing could increase available cattle supplies, while Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report could provide another major catalyst.
At the same time, the physical market remains relatively firm.
Cash cattle are holding around $222-$224 live, placements are expected to decline, slaughter remains below last year’s level and beef export sales have reached a five-week high.
Against that, on-feed inventories are expected to be higher, beef shipments have fallen to a one-year low, boxed-beef prices are declining and the border reopening could improve cattle availability.
The market is therefore balancing tight current supply conditions against expectations of potentially greater future availability.
The USDA report and the subsequent response in cash cattle will be particularly important in determining whether Thursday’s futures decline develops into a broader trend or proves to be a reaction to the immediate supply headlines.
“The cattle market is approaching a critical supply test. Cash prices remain firm and placements are expected to decline, but the planned border reopening and higher on-feed inventories are changing expectations for future availability. Friday’s USDA report could provide the next major signal for whether traders continue pricing in tighter supplies or shift toward a more balanced market.”
— Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets
