As of noon on Friday, the price of Brent crude has remained within a narrow range around $85.50 per barrel for the fourth consecutive trading session, fluctuating between 50- and 100 -day exponential moving averages, as investors weigh the impact of reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz against the backdrop of a general lack of new factors driving the market.

Source: xStation According to data collected by Bloomberg on vessel tracking, the number of confirmed ship crossings through the strait fell to eight on July 16, the lowest figure in three weeks. It was the fourth consecutive day on which traffic through this narrow passage—through which about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil shipments typically pass—remained largely concentrated on the Iranian side of the strait, where seven of the eight recorded crossings took place.

Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P. Another threat is also looming in the background. The risk of another disruption to shipping in the Red Sea has clearly increased with the escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. According to Reuters sources, Tehran reportedly asked the Yemeni Houthi movement to remain on standby to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait should the U.S. attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. In June, approximately 7.4 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the strait daily, accounting for roughly 7 percent of global production. This volume has increased from about 4.2 million barrels per day in 2025, as some supplies from the region have been rerouted to routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz (such as the “East-West” pipeline). For now, the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA) are acting as a magnet for the price, and the RSI at around 58 suggests that neither buyers nor sellers have enough confidence to force a breakout from the price range. However, a breakout in either direction could determine the trend in this commodity’s price in the coming days.