Commodity Talk – Oil, Gold, Natgas, Emiss
Oil: Crude oil, after declines at the beginning of last week, returned to strong gains in the face of huge uncertainty regarding the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran indicates that it is reaching an agreement with Oman regarding the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, but at the same time announces the maintenance of its blockade until 2029 – which is until the end of Donald Trump's presidency or the moment of the return of frozen funds, the lifting of sanctions, and the withdrawal of the American military from the Middle East. During the second session this week, crude oil rose by over 2%. Brent oil is testing the area of 90 USD per barrel, while WTI oil is exceeding the level of 84 USD. On the other hand, Pakistan informs that the United States is supposed to be conducting talks with Iran regarding an agreement, which led to the reversal of the entire daily gain in the market. On a weekly scale, oil gained as much as 12%, and compared to last week, the increase was almost 8%. Currently, the dynamics of moves have been limited. The price remains above the 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year averages, with the largest overvaluation visible relative to the 2-year average. Although the Strait of Hormuz remains officially closed, the transport of the commodity through this strait continues. Nevertheless, sources suggest a drop in volume from over 4 million bbl/d last week to approx. 3 million bbl/d currently. Before the outbreak of the conflict, approx. 20 million bbl/d was transported. Current comments should not generate further drastic increases. Freezing the conflict at the current stage could keep prices in a wide range of 70–90 USD per barrel. Only a potential US attack on Iran's energy infrastructure or an intensification of Iran's actions against targets in the region could lead to a permanent breakout above the 100 USD level. Crude oil and crack spread Volatility in the crude oil market is growing, and the crack spread remains at a high level, which highlights the tense situation in the fuel market. Currently, the challenge is not access to the oil itself, but the supply of petroleum products. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Oil benchmarks and curve spreads The nearest calendar spreads remain at limited levels and may even indicate a slight overvaluation of prices. It is worth noting, however, that the oil market remains in clear backwardation. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Technical analysis of crude oil Crude oil clearly rebounded at the beginning of this week, breaking out of a downward trend, but if the price closes with a clear candle wick, pressure will arise to return below 85 USD per barrel. In the case of a green body at the end of the session, the price may try to test the 100-period average above 92 USD per barrel. Source: xStation5 Gold: Gold tested 4400 USD per ounce for the first time since the beginning of June. Since the beginning of this month, this is an upward movement of approx. 8% The main upward motif in the gold market is the change in sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve. Along with Warsh's nondescript comment at the last Fed meeting and weaker labor market data, the probability of a hike in September falls to a level of approx. 35% Gold is breaking through the 50-period average for the first time since mid-May and is testing the 100-period average. It is worth noting that gold in the short term is weakly or sometimes even negatively correlated with inflation, due to rising expectations for interest rate hikes. In the longer term, gold is positively correlated with gold. Concerns that the Fed will again miss the inflation target due to the lack of a concrete plan are causing a stronger increase in yields at the long end of the yield curve (a significant move in 30-year yields). Medium-term yields (10-year) remain at an elevated level, which may potentially indicate a slight overvaluation of gold at this moment. On the other hand, high yields may also show concerns regarding the fiscal situation in the United States, which may also be shown by the behavior of central banks. Central banks remain active in terms of gold purchases in the market, significantly increasing purchases in the second quarter of this year. At the same time, total demand in Q2 turned out to be quite weak. We are observing clear signs of improved demand: ETF funds have resumed gold purchases, which may be related to the better condition of the US stock market (gold became an asset with higher volatility at the turn of 2025/2026). At the same time, increased buyer activity is visible in the futures market in China. Gold positioning on COMEX and in Shanghai Although we still do not observe activity from investors on COMEX, in the case of the market in Shanghai, a powerful rebound in long positions is visible, to the highest levels since January. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gold price and ETF holdings ETF funds have returned to gold purchases, and the current rebound resembles the situation in April. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gold price and physical demand The sum of investment and central bank demand from the last 4 quarters is clearly falling. Currently, the perspective for a rebound in demand for Q3 is quite high, given the sell-off by ETFs in Q2, very low demand for coins, and further strong demand from central banks. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Structure of gold demand Central banks ensured that demand in Q2 was not one of the lowest in the last dozen or so years. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Technical analysis of gold The gold price is currently testing the 100-period average. A close above this level should enable a move into the vicinity of 4500 USD and a potential negation of the last downward impulse. This would open the way to a level of at least 4800 USD by the end of the year, in the face of pressure for rate hikes from the Fed. Source: xStation5 Natgas: Natural gas prices in the US rose significantly at the turn of the first and second weeks of August, which may be related to forecasts of slightly higher temperatures in the US in the second half of August. Current gas consumption in the United States is at elevated levels, which may lead to testing the range of 2.8-3.0 USD/MMBtu At the same time, the state of inventories in the US remains very high, and the current inventory replenishment season will most likely end in the vicinity of 4000 Bcf The strong El Nino phenomenon could potentially shift the start of the heating season in the US, which may affect lower prices and declines after strong rollovers of futures contracts. The United States is currently a stabilizer in the energy market in the world, also in the form of the largest exporter of LNG gas. Further closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes the demand for American gas in the world to increase. European gas prices returned to the level of 60 EUR/MWh with the prospect of further growth. At this point, it does not seem that gas prices in Europe may be exposed to further increases due to uncertainty regarding the filling of storage facilities before November 1. The filling level currently does not exceed 60%, while the target for November 1 is 90%. At the same time, however, El Nino may cause temperatures in the northern hemisphere to be higher and reduce the pressure on energy commodity price increases. Natural gas market in the USA Gas consumption for electricity production purposes is rising to the highest level this year. Additionally, overall demand is hitting the 5-year maximum, which may mean short-term pressure on price increases. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Seasonality of natural gas inventories in the USA The implied change in inventories for this week is 0, which means very high gas consumption. This may mean that the rate of inventory growth may slow down somewhat, which is, however, consistent with seasonality. Nevertheless, high gas production and the shift of the heating season could lead to inventory growth above 4000 Bcf, which could clearly limit the level of prices after strong rollovers just before the start of the heating season. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB EMISS (CO2 emission allowances): Prices for CO2 emission allowances in Europe remained below 70 EUR per ton for a long time this year due to uncertainty regarding the future of the ETS2 system. Increased demand for electricity (high temperatures, construction of AI centers) also causes increased demand for allowances. July is usually a month in which the supply of allowances at auctions falls or is adjusted due to the holiday period (lower market liquidity). Prices are currently remaining below 100 EUR/MWh due to limited economic growth and trade tensions. The construction of RES in Europe is also progressing, although weather fluctuations also cause an increase in the volatility of emission prices. The long-term perspective indicates an increase in emission prices up to 130-150 EUR/t by 2030, due to decreasing supply. Nevertheless, regulatory uncertainty means that the price increase is not certain at present. In mid-July, the EU presented a proposal for a reform of the ETS1 system, however, the changes are cosmetic in nature – they assume greater flexibility and a slight slowing down of the pace of phasing out free allowances, which was supposed to start this year. The ETS2 system is to start in 2028, but formal auctions are to take place already in 2027. To prevent a price shock and the shifting of high costs to the consumer, a frontloading of emission allowances is to be carried out in 2027 and 130% of the annual limit of allowances will be offered. Seasonality of CO2 emission allowance prices Nominal seasonality of allowance prices indicates an increase until the third week of August, and then a clear reduction and the start of an increase in October. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Technical analysis of the CO2 emission market Key support for emission prices is located in the range of 80–82 EUR per ton, while the potential of the current upward movement reaches from 85 to 87 EUR. Source: xStation5
Commentary
August 3, 2026
SpaceX Preview: It’s Time to See How Much of Its Valuation Is Based on Business and How Much on Promise
SpaceX’s stock market debut was one of the most anticipated events in the market, but the first few weeks of trading quickly demonstrated how difficult it can be to translate enormous technological ambitions into a stable market valuation. The IPO price was $135 per share. The stock subsequently climbed above the $200 mark before falling back to around $110. Such significant volatility is not merely a reaction to current news. Above all, it shows that investors are trying to answer a fundamental question: how much of the current share price is supported by an established business, and how much reflects value assigned to projects that may deliver their greatest benefits only years from now? The upcoming earnings report will be SpaceX’s first real test as a publicly traded company. It may not yet determine the company’s long term value, but it could show whether the current valuation remains justified following the sharp correction from its highs. The bar has been set extremely high, both by Elon Musk, who has spent years building a narrative around breakthrough technologies, and by investors who were willing to value the company far above its IPO price. In SpaceX’s case, however, the financial results themselves may not be the most important factor. The market will be far more interested in how management describes the company’s growth trajectory, the scale of future investment, and the pace of development across its key projects. The first earnings report is expected to answer not only how much the company earned in the most recent quarter, but, more importantly, whether the business is growing quickly enough to justify the enormous expectations surrounding its future. Key Expectations and Figures IPO price: $135 per share Post IPO peak: nearly $200 Current share price: approximately $110 Revenue: $6.81 billion Net income: negative $2 billion EPS: negative $0.23 Connectivity segment, Starlink: $3.95 billion Gross margin: 54% Capital expenditures, CapEx: $13.2 billion Starlink Remains the Foundation of the Entire Story In SpaceX’s long term growth narrative, the greatest excitement surrounds Starship, the development of space infrastructure, and artificial intelligence related projects. These are the initiatives that could potentially expand the company’s scale many times over in the future. However, the company’s current value cannot be based solely on long term projects. Investors need a stable business that is already generating revenue, funding development, and supporting the company’s investment pace. That role is currently played by Starlink. The satellite internet segment is one of SpaceX’s most proven and commercially advanced businesses. Rapid growth in the customer base, expanding coverage, and the development of services for consumers, enterprises, and public institutions could make Starlink the financial foundation of the entire group. Over the next several years, Starlink could effectively serve as a cash generating engine for SpaceX’s other projects. If the business continues to scale rapidly, the revenue and cash flows it generates could fund less profitable initiatives whose potential is enormous but whose path to full commercialization remains long. For this reason, investors will focus not only on Starlink’s revenue growth but also on customer acquisition, margin expansion, and the segment’s ability to generate cash. Strong growth at Starlink could demonstrate that SpaceX already has a real, scalable business capable of supporting its most ambitious projects. Weaker figures, by contrast, would increase concerns that the company’s valuation is still based primarily on future promises. Starship Remains the Greatest Opportunity and the Largest Source of Uncertainty Starship could fundamentally transform the scale of SpaceX’s operations. The success of the program could reduce the cost of launching payloads into orbit, increase mission frequency, and open the door to new commercial and strategic applications. A significant portion of the company’s long term valuation is built around Starship. The challenge is that the project’s potential is much easier to estimate than its timeline. Any delay could push back the point at which Starship reaches full operational capability and commercialization, while also increasing the amount of capital required to fund the program. For that reason, management’s commentary on the next stages of Starship’s development will likely be more important than the company’s second quarter financial results. Investors will be looking for updates on technical progress, planned tests, the pace at which operational capabilities are expanding, and the outlook for the rocket’s commercial use. If Elon Musk presents a specific and credible timeline, it could strengthen confidence in the company’s long term growth story. If communication remains vague or cautious, the market may begin pricing in a greater risk of delays. AI Could Be a Major Opportunity, but for Now It Requires Capital Artificial intelligence related projects are becoming one of the most important elements of SpaceX’s long term strategy. The combination of satellite infrastructure, vast data resources, advanced computing systems, and collaboration with Elon Musk’s other companies could eventually create new sources of revenue. At the current stage, however, AI remains primarily an area of investment. Developing the necessary infrastructure requires enormous spending on data centers, computing hardware, and energy. Before these projects begin generating meaningful revenue, they may increase costs and weigh on cash flows for an extended period. This creates a clear tension within SpaceX’s investment story. On the one hand, AI could significantly expand the company’s long term potential. On the other hand, it requires funding that may limit free cash flow for many quarters to come. This is precisely why investors will expect specific information regarding the scale of investment, the development timeline, and potential monetization. Simply stating that SpaceX intends to participate in the AI race will not be enough. The market will want to know how much capital is required and when the first measurable benefits could emerge. Record CapEx Will Test Investor Patience According to Wall Street expectations, SpaceX’s capital expenditures could reach approximately $13.2 billion in the second quarter. For the full year 2026, CapEx is expected to approach $46 billion, before rising to nearly $87 billion in 2027. Such rapid growth in spending demonstrates the scale of the company’s ambitions. SpaceX is investing simultaneously in Starlink’s expansion, the Starship program, technological infrastructure, and artificial intelligence related projects. Each of these areas could eventually become a major business, but all of them require substantial capital. The market will therefore have to assess whether these high expenditures represent an investment in future competitive advantages or whether they are beginning to create excessive financial pressure. For mature technology companies, high CapEx can be accepted if rising expenditures quickly translate into higher revenue. SpaceX, however, is in a different position. A significant portion of its investments is directed toward projects whose full monetization may not occur for several years. Consensus estimates also point to negative free cash flow of approximately $1.9 billion in the second quarter. Negative FCF alone does not necessarily represent a negative signal. For a company developing projects that are so capital intensive, the more important issue will be whether investors receive a credible roadmap connecting current spending with future revenue. Financing Remains an Important Part of the Story SpaceX raised nearly $86 billion through its IPO and, just a few weeks later, increased its financing by approximately $25 billion in debt. The scale of the capital raised shows that investors are willing to fund the company’s ambitious plans. At the same time, it raises questions about the pace of future capital requirements. If capital expenditures increase in line with current forecasts, the market may begin to analyze not only the company’s current results but also the timing of its next capital raise and the potential valuation of future share offerings. The first earnings report could therefore provide information not only about the outlook for the second half of 2026. Management’s commentary may also help investors assess how long the company’s current financing will remain sufficient and whether SpaceX will require additional large scale sources of capital. The Lock Up Expiration Could Increase Volatility Regardless of the Results Several days after the earnings report is released, the gradual unlocking of additional shares subject to the lock up period will begin. This does not mean that all of these shares will immediately enter the market, but it increases the potential supply of shares and could raise short term volatility. This is important because the stock’s reaction to the results may be shaped not only by financial data and Elon Musk’s commentary. Even a very strong earnings report could be partially overshadowed by concerns about the increasing number of shares available for trading. On the other hand, the gradual nature of the unlock means that the market will have time to absorb the additional supply. It is also worth remembering that the ability to sell does not create an obligation to sell. Some employees and early investors may choose to take profits or diversify their portfolios, while others may retain their positions. As a result, the impact of the share unlock on the stock price will depend on the actual scale of selling and the current level of demand for the shares. Elon Musk May Matter More Than the Numbers Themselves SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report will also be the company’s first major test of communication with the public market. Investors know Elon Musk as a leader capable of building highly ambitious visions and attracting capital to projects that extend beyond the traditional boundaries of technology. This time, however, vision alone may not be enough. Following the sharp rise and subsequent selloff in the stock, shareholders will expect more concrete information. Key areas will include the development of Starlink, the Starship timeline, the scale of AI investment, the availability of semiconductor chips, and the outlook for future revenue. Musk’s commentary could have a greater impact on the share price than a small earnings beat or a modest disappointment relative to consensus expectations. The market will primarily assess management’s level of confidence and the credibility of the growth path presented. Three Possible Scenarios Positive Scenario The positive scenario assumes strong growth at Starlink, specific updates on the continued development of Starship, and a convincing strategy for monetizing artificial intelligence related projects. If management demonstrates that high CapEx is a response to growing demand and is contributing to the creation of new revenue streams, the market may view the recent correction as an opportunity to revalue the company. Neutral Scenario The neutral scenario assumes results broadly in line with expectations, continued strong growth at Starlink, and a general reaffirmation of long term plans. Such a report could stabilize investor sentiment but might not be enough to trigger a significant rebound in the share price. At the current valuation, investors may expect more specific information regarding future growth. Negative Scenario The negative scenario includes weaker momentum at Starlink, delays in Starship’s development, further increases in CapEx, and the absence of a clear path toward monetizing AI projects. In this case, the market could conclude that even a share price of around $110 still reflects an overly ambitious growth scenario. The First Earnings Report Will Test the Credibility of the Entire Story SpaceX remains one of the most ambitious technology companies in the world. It possesses genuine competitive advantages, an established Starlink business, the enormous potential of Starship, and the opportunity to develop new sources of growth in AI. At the same time, a large portion of the company’s valuation is based on projects whose full scale and profitability remain distant. The first quarterly earnings report will therefore be more than a standard financial release. It will be the first test of whether the market is receiving enough evidence to continue valuing SpaceX as one of the most important growth companies of the future. The key questions are: Is Starlink still growing quickly enough? Can the segment generate the cash needed to fund SpaceX’s other projects? What does the Starship development timeline look like? How large will future AI investments be? When could AI related projects begin generating revenue? Is rising CapEx still justified? How long can SpaceX continue funding its expansion while generating negative free cash flow? Does the current valuation still reflect an overly ambitious growth scenario? How will the market react to the increase in the number of shares available for trading? Key Takeaways SpaceX is entering its first quarterly earnings report following a highly volatile period. The stock rose from its $135 IPO price to $200 before falling back to around $110. The current valuation suggests that the market has begun to assess more critically the pace at which ambitious projects can be translated into tangible financial results. Starlink remains the company’s most important foundation. Rapid growth in the segment could confirm that SpaceX already possesses a scalable business capable of funding less profitable but potentially more promising projects. Starship remains the company’s greatest long term opportunity but also one of its main sources of uncertainty. Commentary regarding the development timeline could have a greater impact than the second quarter financial results themselves. AI increases the company’s long term potential but also requires enormous investment. Consensus estimates point to approximately $46 billion in CapEx in 2026 and around $87 billion in 2027, alongside expected negative free cash flow in the upcoming quarter. High spending may be accepted if SpaceX demonstrates that it is leading to rising revenue, continued growth at Starlink, and the creation of new sources of expansion. However, if investment increases faster than the company’s real ability to monetize its projects, the market may once again question the valuation. SpaceX’s first earnings report will therefore not be merely an assessment of the most recent quarter. Above all, it will test whether the company can convince investors that a significant portion of its future value already rests on tangible foundations rather than on promises alone. Source: xStation5