Trader Talk: Trading News And Analysis

Energies

July 27, 2026

Chip War Weighs on Wall Street as Oil Plunges After US–Iran Ceasefire

Stock Market Little trace remains on Wall Street of the initial euphoria triggered by news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Key US indices are currently trading in the red. S&P 500 is down about 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 falls nearly 0.7%, while only Dow Jones remains marginally in positive territory. Pressure is focused primarily on the semiconductor sector and companies tied to the memory market. Micron falls over 5.5%, Sandisk drops nearly 12%, and Nvidia drops over 5%. Meanwhile, hyperscalers are faring somewhat better, posting gains today. The deterioration in sentiment was driven by reports on China's progress in developing its own semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which could threaten the position of European industry leader ASML in the future. Reports indicate that Beijing is developing domestic DUV (Deep Ultraviolet Lithography) equipment, a key technology used to produce advanced chips. This news heightened investor concerns over growing competition in the semiconductor sector and its potential impact on the future results of Western manufacturers. Furthermore, tech tensions between the US and China were underscored by Donald Trump's statement regarding AI competition: "They are looking at us, we are looking at them." These words were interpreted as a sign that the strategic battle for dominance in AI and key technologies remains one of the market's top themes. Consequently, the AI and semiconductor segment took the hardest hit—a sector that served as a main growth driver on Wall Street in recent years. Investors worry that the development of China's chip industry could limit the long-term advantage of American and European technology firms. The session in the Old Continent ended in a decidedly better mood. European equity sentiment was buoyed primarily by the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf, which eased fears of further escalation and energy price pressures. The UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, as did France's CAC 40. Germany's DAX rose over 1.3%, while Spain's IBEX 35 closed the day up 0.8%. 🌐 Geopolitics & Macroeconomics Unquestionably, the main catalyst driving market events in the first half of the day was the cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump stated that the US decided to halt further strikes against Iran following a request from mediating nations asking to give negotiations another chance. The US President indicated that intensive talks with Iran are currently underway, though he noted that time to achieve a breakthrough is limited. Simultaneously, Trump emphasized that if an agreement is not reached, the US is prepared to return to decisive military action. For markets, this primarily brings a reduction in short-term pressure related to conflict escalation risks and potential energy price surges. Lower oil prices ease fears of renewed inflation, serving as a positive driver for risk assets and influencing expectations for future Federal Reserve decisions. At the same time, markets remain cautious as the current ceasefire does not yet signal a lasting resolution to the conflict. Trump's rhetoric indicates this is merely a temporary pause for negotiations rather than a definitive end to military action. Should talks fail, a resurgence of Middle East tensions could once again translate into rising oil prices and worsening sentiment across global financial markets. Currently, markets are focused on whether diplomatic efforts will lead to a lasting agreement between the US and Iran. Maintaining the ceasefire would serve as a tailwind for market sentiment by ensuring lower geopolitical risk, less pressure on energy prices, and reduced concerns over the conflict's impact on the global economy. 🛢️ Commodities Ceasefire news was immediately reflected in the oil market, where crude prices plunged sharply due to reduced fears of further escalation in the Middle East and potential global energy supply disruptions. A decline in the geopolitical risk premium triggered a clear sell-off in Brent crude, which reacted to prospects of easing tensions between Washington and Tehran. 🪙 Precious Metals A cautiously balanced optimism prevails in the precious metals market. Gold futures are up about 0.5%, approaching the $4,100 level. Silver futures gain 0.7%, hovering around $58. 🪙 Cryptocurrencies Positive sentiment is also present in the digital assets market. Bitcoin gains about 0.3%, testing the $65,000 level. Ethereum rises nearly 1%, trading around $1,940.

July 27, 2026

Gold struggles below $4,100 as US Dollar rebounds, Fed decision looms

Gold opens with a bullish gap but trims gains as the US Dollar rebounds and Oil prices stabilize. Traders await the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday and US PCE inflation data on Thursday. XAU/USD stays range-bound between $4,000 and $4,200, hovering near the 21-day SMA. Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday but struggles to build on its early advance as optimism over a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran fades and Oil prices recover from intraday lows. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,073 after briefly climbing above $4,100, up 0.50% on the day. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump is giving negotiations some space while keeping all military options on the table. Tehran also said it would refrain from fresh attacks as long as Washington did the same. Oil prices opened the week sharply lower on hopes that the pause in hostilities could ease supply risks. However, sellers quickly moved to the sidelines as the geopolitical situation remained fluid. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz had not changed and that the strategic waterway remained closed. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $82.70 per barrel, rebounding from an intraday low of $81.28, but remains down more than 7% on the day. Gold’s reaction again shows how the metal has decoupled from its traditional safe-haven role since the US-Iran war began, with price action driven largely by the inflationary impact of higher Oil prices and their implications for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. The Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday is the key risk event this week, alongside the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Thursday. The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, but traders still price in a 33% chance of a hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a rate increase in September stands near 79%. The possibility of higher US interest rates remains a major headwind for the non-yielding metal, while the US Dollar continues to benefit from hawkish Fed expectations and the fragile Middle East situation. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.50, recovering from an intraday low of 101.12. Strategists at OCBC note that “a hold accompanied by hawkish guidance would likely push expected rate hikes further out the curve without materially altering the roughly 55 [bps] of cumulative tightening priced in through mid-2027.” In their view, “in this scenario, the USD should remain supported.” By contrast, OCBC cautions that “a decision to leave rates unchanged with little explanation could be interpreted as dovish and create confusion about the Fed's reaction function,” a misstep that “risks lifting long-end inflation breakevens, a development that would be negative for the USD.” Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates near 21-day SMA From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains rangebound between $4,000 and $4,200, with prices fluctuating around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,068. The near-term outlook is neutral, although the broader bias stays bearish as the metal trades below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $4,221 and $4,469, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 47, leaning neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting that downside momentum is limited even as the broader structure remains capped by overhead averages. On the upside, the $4,200 psychological mark and the 50-day SMA at $4,221 form the initial resistance zone. A decisive break above this area could open the door toward the 100-day SMA at $4,468. Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,069, followed by the $4,000 level. A daily close below this level would expose deeper retracement, while holding above it would keep XAU/USD in a range, with bulls needing a clear move through $4,222 to regain control.

July 27, 2026

Nasdaq-100 under pressure after chip sell-off

Semiconductor weakness weighs on Nasdaq-100 futures Nasdaq-100 (US100) futures remain under pressure today following reports about China’s progress in developing its own semiconductor manufacturing technology. The index opened higher, supported by news of a pause in military operations between the US and Iran, but sentiment deteriorated as the session progressed and prices moved into negative territory. The strongest pressure has been visible across the semiconductor sector, with ASML, Nvidia and other chip-related companies among the biggest decliners. The weaker sentiment was triggered by reports that China is making progress in developing advanced DUV lithography machines, which could eventually challenge the current advantage of leading industry players and increase competition in the semiconductor market. At the same time, investors are taking profits in the artificial intelligence segment, with Nvidia also coming under pressure. The market is increasingly focused not only on the pace of AI adoption, but also on the scale of investment required to sustain the current growth trajectory. Rising spending on data centres and AI infrastructure is raising questions over whether the size of these investments will translate into sufficiently strong returns in the future. Today’s session highlights growing market sensitivity to developments in the semiconductor sector. The industry remains one of the key pillars of the artificial intelligence narrative, meaning any information related to technological competition, margin pressure or future investment returns can quickly impact the valuations of major companies and the broader index. Source: xStation5

July 27, 2026

Ethereum Nears $2,000

Spot Ethereum is currently losing 0.3% today, after having tested the vicinity of $2,000 level, a 2-month high. Following the US market opening, the asset began to pull back, though it remains near the $2,000 level. The price of Ethereum was rising today alongside a weakening dollar. Looking through the lens of majors in the crypto market, Ethereum was one of the strongest cryptocurrencies today, approaching the $2,000 level. Ethereum is potentially breaking out of a downtrend today that has been visible in the market since September 2025. Over the course of one month, we are seeing an increase of almost 25%. At the same time, Bitcoin is gaining about 10%. Monthly changes in Ethereum. July may be the strongest month in exactly one year. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB 1. Main Growth Factors Structural Supply Pressure (Supply Squeeze): The ETH staking ratio has reached a record high of 34%. The locking up of such a large portion of the supply, combined with increasing gas fee burning in Layer 2 and DeFi networks and declining reserves on spot exchanges, significantly restricts market liquidity on the sell side. Capital Return to ETFs: Following a weaker period at the turn of June and July, US spot ETH and BTC ETFs recorded positive net flows in the second half of the month. Geopolitical De-escalation and Short Squeeze: A temporary halt in mutual attacks between the US and Iran improved global risk appetite. This triggered a cascade of short position liquidations in the cryptocurrency market valued at over $160 million within 24 hours. Cumulative 20-day purchases of ETH ETFs have risen above $300 million. They could potentially be the highest in the near future since November 2025. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB 2. Key Market Catalyst: Fed Decision (July 28–29, 2026) Despite strong fundamentals, the near-term direction of the ETH price depends on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting. Fed Scenario: No rate change (68.5%). Potential breakout of the $2,000 level, but with a risk of failing to maintain above this resistance without new volume and new drivers for the crypto market. Fed Scenario: 25 bps hike (31.5%). Profit-taking and an immediate price correction. This scenario could partially materialize if Kevin Warsh signals that hikes are coming. Fed Scenario: Rate cut (unlikely scenario). Strong bullish momentum with a technical target in the area of the May highs at $2,400 (+20%). However, this scenario could partially materialize if Kevin Warsh is dovish during the conference. 3. Risk Factors Institutional Sentiment Volatility: Despite weekly net inflows into ETFs, the end of last week brought sudden outflows, both for BTC and ETH (over $465 million from BTC ETFs alone in two days), indicating that institutional investors are still quickly taking profits before macroeconomic events. EU and US Regulatory Background: Work on the US Clarity Act is being delayed due to political disputes in Congress, which introduces additional legal uncertainty. Summary Ethereum is at a key inflection point. If investors manage to sustainably break the psychological barrier of $2,000 with the support of a dovish message from the Fed, the technical target of the uptrend setup is at $2,400 (around the 23.6 retracement). A hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve, however, could trigger a quick pullback towards recent supports. Source: xStation Crypto assets are highly volatile and carry substantial risk. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The 23.6% retracement metric is derived from Fibonacci retracement, a technical analysis tool that uses horizontal lines to indicate potential support or resistance levels based on key percentage levels calculated from the Fibonacci sequence. More about Fibo.

July 27, 2026

European TTF gas prices fall by 7.5%

The suspension of mutual attacks by the US and Iran is causing energy commodity prices to fall Natural gas prices in Europe (the Dutch TTF benchmark) recorded a sharp decline on Monday. The nearest expiring contract lost as much as 8.5%, dropping for a moment below 58 EUR/MWh. Last week, the price closed several times above 60 EUR/MWh. Although daily highs in March were higher, at the end of last week we saw the highest close since 2023. Is market optimism justified? In the short term, the price drop brings relief, but long-term market fundamentals require great caution: Temporary de-escalation: The suspension of fighting gave the market a breather and reduced concerns about an immediate interruption of supplies from the Persian Gulf. Direction of US LNG: Price differences make shipping LNG from the US to Europe currently more profitable than to Asia, which may support supplies to the Old Continent. Prices still at a high level: Despite Monday's drop, gas in Europe is still more than 80% more expensive than before the outbreak of the conflict in February and 100% higher compared to the beginning of the year. Low storage levels: European gas storage levels are currently at just ~55%, compared to a 5-year average of ~71%. Drop in LNG imports: The 30-day average volume of LNG imports to Europe is as much as 23% lower than the 5-year average. Supplier caution: QatarEnergy is offering to sub-charter its vessels until the end of October, which suggests there is no rush to restore full traffic in the Persian Gulf. Storage filling in Europe is 55%, very similar to 2021, when prices in September reached 100 EUR/MWh. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Is there a risk of a return to 100 EUR/MWh? The risk of another sharp price increase (including testing higher price levels) remains very high. Storage filling is not accelerating, and the prospects for additional imports remain limited. Fragility of the ceasefire: The current decline is due to the suspension of attacks, not a lasting peace agreement. As Citigroup analysts point out, the market is extremely sensitive and individual headlines can immediately reverse the trend. Race against time before winter: The slow pace of filling storage (55%) combined with logistical difficulties creates a risk that Europe will not manage to rebuild stocks before the heating season. Higher summer consumption and competition with Asia: Heat waves in Europe and Asia increase demand for energy (air conditioning), which intensifies competition for available LNG cargoes on the spot market. Current gas price behavior is very similar to what happened in 2021, when they reached 100 EUR/MWh in September. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Gas prices are key to the European economy Although gas consumption increases extremely during the winter season and the raw material is used to the greatest extent for heating then, a large part of European industry is based on gas. This causes a significant increase in costs and a limitation of competitiveness (in the field of petrochemistry or also metal refining). Consequently, the terms of trade for the euro are almost 100% correlated with the gas price, which leads to large changes in EURUSD. TTF and EURUSD since 2025. It is worth noting that such levels in 2025 gave us EURUSD very close to parity. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB In the shorter term, a significant correlation can be seen. If gas were to fall to around 40 EUR/MWh, it would give a chance for EURUSD to be around 1.18. Source: xStation5 TTF is undergoing a correction today, stopping near the 23.6 retracement. Key support is at 52 EUR/MWh. Source: xStation5

July 27, 2026

Trade of The Day – US100

Facts: RSI [14] indicates a level of around 44. Williams %R [15] indicates a level of -73. Price defended the level around 28,300 (EMA100 average). Recommendation: Long position (buy) on US100 at the market price. Target price (Take Profit, TP): 31,750 Stop Loss (SL): 27,750 US100 (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION : The price of the contract on Wall Street’s main technology index has been moving within a descending channel over the past 2 months. Strong resistance at the EMA100 average, combined with the RSI and Williams indicators, creates favorable conditions for an upward corrective move. Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA averages and Fibonacci levels. The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels. The protective stop-loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and on a Fibonacci level.

July 27, 2026

Chart of The Day – US100

Today’s trading in the US100 is getting off to a start in a distinctly risk-on mood, driven primarily by a rebound in the oil market and statements from the US and Iran regarding a mutual pause in military attacks. US100 futures are up by around 1.37% on Monday, trading at 28,693 points, making them the strongest of the major US stock indices in this session, outperforming even the S&P 500 (+0.91%) and the Dow Jones. This move represents an attempt to rebound after two weeks of declines, during which the technology index lost 2.1% last week, whilst falling US bond yields (10-year yields down by 4–5 basis points to 4.63%) are further easing the pressure on growth companies, which are particularly sensitive to the cost of capital. Investor optimism is, however, selective and fragile, as the geopolitical de-escalation remains merely declarative rather than confirmed by actual data – ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains negligible, and the Houthis are continuing their attacks on Saudi Aramco’s infrastructure. In the background, the market is awaiting the Fed’s decision on Wednesday (28–29 July), with the market pricing in a 30–38 per cent chance of a rate rise despite earlier expectations of cuts; this represents a real risk factor for the highly valued technology sector, regardless of the temporary support provided by lower energy prices. In addition, this week investors will be keeping an eye on the results of four companies from the Mag7 group and developments regarding Trump’s new wave of tariffs, which experts are already describing as a structural – rather than a temporary – risk factor for global growth. Technical drawing US100 (D1) The US100 daily chart shows the index moving within a clear consolidation phase following a strong uptrend from March to June, with the price having fluctuated for several weeks within a range bounded by the upper Bollinger Band (~30,540) and the support and resistance zone around the EMA100 (28,316) and the EMA50 (29,178). On Friday, the market clearly saw stronger volume alongside a fall in price (a bearish candle marked by the yellow zone on the volume chart), without the formation of a significant lower shadow – this suggests that selling pressure at this level was genuine and was not immediately absorbed by the bulls, which, following unsuccessful attempts to retest the upper levels and the EMA100, may indicate a waning dominance of demand in the short term. The RSI, at 43.2, remains in a neutral, slightly weaker zone, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which is consistent with the index seeking equilibrium following its departure from the upper Bollinger Band and an attempt to stabilise around the EMA50/EMA100. Today’s rebound, driven by geopolitical news (the bullish candle in the top right-hand corner of the chart), partially offsets Friday’s signal of weakness, but with the channel continuing to narrow (as indicated by the trend line on volume in recent sessions), the key factor will be whether buyers can generate volume comparable to Friday’s selling pressure – otherwise, the move may prove to be merely a technical rebound ahead of more fundamental tests in the form of the Fed’s decision, the Mag7 results and a possible resurgence of tensions in the Middle East.

July 27, 2026

The Week Ahead

Key takeaways Geopolitical risks retreat Risk sentiment boosted at the start of the week Fed decision to take centre stage, as CBs expected to remain on hold Investors cautious about capex spenders, as semiconductors bounce back Earnings season crucial for 2H US stock market outlook Event Watch: Fed, BOJ, BOE, US GDP, earnings Week Ahead: Oil prices tumble There has been a major shift in financial markets this morning. Reports that the US and Iran have agreed to a pause in hostilities after two weeks of relentless bombing by both sides, has been warmly welcomed by investors. This has dramatically reduced the geopolitical risk premium; the Brent crude oil price is down 10% and is trading at $86 per barrel. This is a big change from last week, when the oil price was knocking on the door of $100 per barrel. Geopolitical risks retreat The question now is, will the deescalation in tensions between Iran and the US have a longer-term dampening impact on the oil price, and will it lead to reduced inflationary concerns as we lead up to some key central bank meetings? Over the weekend there were no new strikes in Iran or the Strait of Hormuz for a second day in a row. This sudden calm, after two weeks of attacks, spurs hopes of a return to diplomacy. Iran has said that it will halt strikes on the Gulf, and there are hopes that talks to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz will continue into this week. For now, the Strait of Hormuz is still under a blockade, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have also increased commodity supply risks, even if there are factors that could limit Houthi’s effectiveness now that they have entered the fray. Although the situation in the Middle East has calmed, it has not been resolved, and it could make a decline below $85b per barrel tricky at this stage. Risk sentiment boosted at the start of the week The decline in the oil price has seeped into other asset classes at the start of this week, and risk sentiment is surging. Equity index futures are rising sharply, the Nasdaq is predicted to rise 1.5% today as we lead up to some key earnings releases. The falling oil price is also adding downward pressure to yields, the UK 10-Year yield is lower by 13bps this morning. Asian equities rose overnight, with a 1.5% gain for the Kospi index in South Korea. SK Hynix rose 1.5%, as chip makers led Asian indices higher. This is expected to be replicated in the US and Europe later today. The price action early on Monday suggests that the losing streak for US stocks is taking a pause, however, we have been here before. The events of the last 2 weeks have reminded us that geopolitical risks are never far away, and relations between the US and Iran remain incendiary. Added to this, although US indices are rising, there are still other hurdles for equities to pass in the coming days including earnings reports and a Fed rate decision. Fed decision to take centre stage, as CBs expected to remain on hold The FOMC decision is the centre point of the week, and events on Wednesday and Thursday could set the tone for financial markets over the coming weeks and months. Yields surged last week across Europe and the US as oil prices rose sharply, we yields are falling sharply as we start the new week. Surprisingly, last week’s sharp rise in yields was less notable in the UK compared to the US. The 10-year yield rose 5bps and the 2-year yield was up 6bps. This compares to a 13bp increase in the 10-year US Treasury yield. Could hopes of North Sea gas fields coming back into production break the positive correlation between UK yields and rising commodity prices, and assuage the UK’s Gilt market? We shall have to see if yields fall further on the back of declining oil prices this week and also assess what the BOE will do next when they meet this Thursday. Investors cautious about capex spenders, as semiconductors bounce back Last week also saw the market digest the first of the Magnificent 7 earnings reports. Tesla and Alphabet saw their share prices fall 18% and 7% respectively last week, after they both announced increased capex spend as they expand their AI capabilities. This week will see four more Magnificent 7 companies report earnings. The dominant theme in the tech stock space is caution on capex spenders like Alphabet and Tesla, and optimism for their customers whose order books remain fat from hyperscaler demand. This is why the Magnificent 7 on aggregate saw its share price drop 5.8% last week, compared to a 2.9% gain for the Philadelphia semiconductor index. Earnings season crucial for 2H US stock market outlook Overall, the Nasdaq fell 2% last week, compared to a more modest 0.6% drop in the S&P 500. Real estate, industrials, energy and utilities all rose last week, as the rotation out of the Magnificent 7 got under way, and the negative correlation with the oil price persisted. The hyperscalers are facing growing scrutiny of their capex spend this earnings season, and we expect the same for Amazon, Microsoft and Meta when they report earnings this week. Apple also reports results; however, its AI investment has lagged rivals in recent years and it may fall under the radar of investors’ unforgiving gaze. The cost of money is getting more expensive, which could hurt those who are investing heavily using their balance sheets to fund their AI investments. This may continue to be a headwind to valuations as we move deeper into earnings season. Event Watch: This is a big week, and investors are looking for direction as we move deeper into the summer. The question is, are movements in financial markets already locked in, or is there room for a major shift in direction? There was an improvement in sentiment at the end of last week, as the oil price fell, however, this did not translate into a pickup for US stocks. Investors will be looking to see if this week’s earnings are drivers of more rotation out of US tech stocks and into European equities, or if the slide in major tech names like Tesla can be halted. Below, we look at the major events that will drive markets this week. FOMC meeting : This is the main event for financial markets, especially since the market is still getting used to the new chair Kevin Warsh and his style of communication. The market is not expecting any change to rates on Wednesday; however, the Fed Fund Futures market is pointing to 2 rate hikes in the next 6-12 months. As Warsh has said himself, there are diverse views within then FOMC, and this meeting we could see a tussle between those who are concerned about sticky inflation and those who are more worried about the labour market. However, the robust US economic data of late, means that this could be the meeting where dovishness is put to bed at the Fed. As we lead up to this meeting, the spike in oil prices has seen investors increase their bets that the Fed could hike rates this week to 36%. However, we think that it is too premature for hikes at this stage. Central banks cannot control energy prices, geopolitical risks or supply issues, so a rate hike is likely to be ineffective at this stage. The US dollar was the best performing currency out of the majors last week; the dollar index rose 0.5% to more than 101.00. A new round of US tariffs did not hurt the dollar’s upward trajectory, and if the Fed continues to sound concerned about inflation risks, then we expect further upside for the greenback. BOE and BOJ meetings: Both central banks are expected to keep rates on hold, and the BOE decision could be finely balanced whether to pivot towards future rate hikes or wait to see how the growth picture pans out under new PM Andy Burnham. The market will be watching the USD/JPY’s reaction to the BOJ meeting after it rose to a fresh 40-year high last week rising towards 164.00. This meeting could spur more volatility in this pair, as the BOJ tries to stem further yen decline. Equity earnings are also key for this week. Google and Tesla had a rough ride after reporting their Q2 results last week. This week sees four more members of the Magnificent 7 report their key numbers for last quarter. Here are the details you should watch for: Meta: The good news in this report could be positive user engagement momentum created by the World Cup. Meta has come under scrutiny this year, and its share price is down 10% YTD. The company is set to invest up to $145bn on AI this year, and abandon investments elsewhere. The focus will be on return on investment, and Meta’s plan to sell some of its compute capability. Meta does not have a full stack AI offering, so how it can monetize its AI products will be key. Microsoft: The focus on AI cost control leaves Microsoft in a bind. Scaling back some of its investment could compromise sales of its co-pilot programme that is embedded in the Microsoft suite of products. Microsoft’s share price is already down 20% YTD, however, hyperscalers are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. Too much investment and the market punishes them, too little investment and the narrative shifts to them falling behind in the AI race. We are not expecting these results to change the dial for Microsoft’s share price. Amazon: Revenue estimates are high going into this report, which will be a tough bar to clear. Added to this, high oil prices in Q2 could increase the cost base of its logistics business for its ecommerce arm. However, shifting prime day to Q2 rather than Q3 could add a temporary boost to revenues. Apple: it has been the top performing Magnificent 7 stock this year and is higher by 20%. It has not been caught up in the hyperscaler race to invest in AI, and this strategy has paid off in 2026, as AI spend has come under more investor scrutiny. Any product updates, including the foldable iPhone, could also be welcomed by investors. Economic data watch: There is a data deluge this week including US Q2 GDP and GDP readings from the Eurozone. The economic data could highlight the divergence between the US and elsewhere. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing to a 1.7% growth rate for Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1. However, we think that the risks are to the upside, as business investment continues to surge, due to AI investments, and consumer spending also held up well in Q2. Chart 1: Brent crude oil price testing its 50-day sma support above $86 per barrel. Source: XTB Chart 2: Nasdaq 100 in focus ahead of big earnings week Source: XTB

July 27, 2026

Economic Calendar: What you need to watch closely this week❓

The market opens the week in the wake of a sharp fall in oil prices, following reports that the US and Iran have halted attacks in the Strait of Hormuz – this is the main driver of today’s session. WTI crude is down by over 7%, whilst Brent fell by as much as around 5% on Sunday, retreating from the two-month highs recorded in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East. What's moving the market? At the start of the week, the commodities market appears to be taking the lead – OIL.WTI (-7.38%) and OIL (Brent, -6.54%) are the clear leaders in the declines, whilst NATGAS is down by almost 4%. On the other side of the market, silver (+2.57%), US100 (+1.41%) and EU50 (+1.36%) are posting the biggest gains, suggesting a rebound from geopolitical risks and a return of appetite for risky assets. The main European indices (DE40 +1.32%, SPA35 +1.25%, ITA40 +1.20%) and the US500 (+0.96%) are rising at the open, as are the Asian indices JP225 (+1.31%) and CHN.cash (+1.33%). Today’s macroeconomic data At 10:00 we’ll see the German Ifo index for July, and at 14:30 US durable goods orders for June – these are the only hard macroeconomic readings on today’s calendar. In the background, however, geopolitical and trade developments are dominating the scene – on Friday, the Trump administration imposed new Section 301 tariffs (10–12.5 per cent) on 60 trading partners, which is once again fuelling uncertainty in global markets. What’s in store for us this week Monday, 27 July 10:00 Germany – Ifo Institute Index (business climate) for July 14:30 US – Durable goods orders (month-on-month) for June Tuesday, 28 July 05:05 Australia – Speech by the RBA Governor 22:40 US – API report on changes in crude oil stocks Wednesday, 29 July 03:30 Australia – CPI inflation (y/y and q/q) for the second quarter 16:30 US – Change in crude oil and petrol stocks, according to the EIA 20:00 US – Fed interest rate decision 20:30 USA – FOMC press conference Thursday, 30 July 09:00 Spain – CPI inflation for July and GDP for the second quarter 11:00 Eurozone – GDP (year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter) for the second quarter 13:00 UK – BoE interest rate decision 14:00 Germany – CPI inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July 14:30 US – GDP (annualised) for the second quarter 14:30 US – PCE inflation for June 16:30 US – EIA natural gas stock figures Friday, 31 July 00:00 Japan – BoJ interest rate decision and press conference 01:50 Japan – Industrial production and retail sales for June 03:30 China – CFLP PMI indices (for manufacturing and services) for July 09:30 Poland – CPI inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July 11:00 Eurozone – HICP and core HICP inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July The key event of the week will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday (20:00), alongside Jerome Powell’s press conference – the market is currently pricing in a 35–40 per cent chance of a rate rise, which is a sharp increase from around 10 per cent as recently as June, due to the surge in oil prices and concerns about inflation. In addition, we are in for a marathon of Mag7 earnings – Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday after the close, Apple and Amazon on Thursday, whilst outside the Big Tech sector, Visa, Samsung and ExxonMobil will also be in the spotlight. On the macro front, the week concludes with a series of key releases: US and eurozone Q2 GDP figures (Thursday), the BoE’s decision and German CPI inflation (Thursday), and on Friday the BoJ’s decision, China’s PMI, and Polish and EU CPI inflation figures for July. Source: XTB

July 27, 2026

Copper Steadies Amid Easing Mideast Tensions

Copper futures steadied above $6.3 per pound on Monday after experiencing sharp volatility last week, as easing tensions in the Middle East lifted market sentiment. The US and Iran suspended strikes against each other over the weekend amid renewed diplomatic efforts, with President Donald Trump reportedly open to restarting peace negotiations. Oil prices declined sharply, easing concerns about inflation and the interest rate outlook. Copper also continued to draw support from its strong long-term demand prospects, driven by the global transition to clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers. On the supply side, indications of near-term tightness in top consumer China underpinned prices, while severe storms in leading producer Chile raised the risk of disruptions to copper output.

July 27, 2026

XAG/USD jumps over 2% to near $60 on renewed US-Iran diplomacy hopes

Silver price gains sharply to near $60.00 as the US-Iran military aggression pauses. The pause in Middle East hostilities has weighed heavily on oil prices. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Silver price (XAG) trades sharply higher near $60.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The white metal starts the week on a firm note as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran has sent oil prices sharply lower. The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran paused after US ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Mike Waltz, told "Fox News ⁠Sunday" that President Donald Trump had decided to pause US attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, Reuters reports. In the Asian trade, the WTI Oil price trades 5.6% lower to near $84.00. A sharp decline in oil prices has reduced concerns of a prolong elevated inflation expectations, which has eased fears of higher interest rates by global central banks in the near term. The Silver price underperformed in the last months when the onset of the Middle East war boosted oil prices. Technically, higher interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Silver technical analysis XAG/USD trades higher at around $60 at press time, striving to return above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $59.35. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lifts toward the mid-40s and hints at modestly improving momentum rather than outright bearish exhaustion. On the topside, a decisive daily close above the 20-day EMA at $59.35 would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a deeper recovery. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.

July 27, 2026

WTI remains heavily offered near $84.00 amid hopes for de-escalation in US-Iran conflict

WTI opens with a big bearish gap on Monday amid renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy. Shipping restrictions through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz limit losses. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new at the start of a new week and retreats further from its highest level since June 8, around the $92.25 zone, touched last Thursday. The black liquid, however, recovers slightly from a four-day trough, touched during the Asian session, and currently trades near the $84.00 mark, still down nearly 6% for the day. The US paused its bombing campaign following 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets late on Friday, prompting Tehran to suspend its retaliatory attacks against Washington's allies in the Middle East. US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Mike Waltz said that while forces remained locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations a little bit of room. This revives hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran conflict, leading to some unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium and exerting pressure on crude oil prices. Meanwhile, traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on 26 July after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi oil installations along the coast of the Red Sea. This adds to concerns about significant disruptions to global oil supplies due to the restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which holds back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets and limits the downside for crude oil prices. Investors might also opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis before confirming that the commodity has topped out and positioning for deeper losses. Analysts at Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team highlight that crude benchmarks have surged on renewed supply concerns, noting that “Brent, WTI, and refined products rallied sharply as Hormuz disruptions, intensified Russia-Ukraine strikes, CPC terminal outages, and record-tight diesel markets renewed fears of a broader supply crunch.” They frame these overlapping disruptions as reigniting worries over the durability of global oil supply, with the combination of geopolitical flashpoints and logistical bottlenecks driving the latest leg higher in the complex.

July 27, 2026

Gold gains as falling oil prices ease inflation and rate hike fears

Gold rises as falling oil prices and a pause in US-Iran strikes eased inflation and interest rate concerns. Upcoming policy decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ could trigger further market movement. Iran confirmed it will refrain from retaliatory attacks as long as the US bombing pause holds. Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 4,103 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Gold prices pushed higher as a sharp drop in oil prices eased market fears over inflation and interest rate hikes, following a weekend pause in military hostilities between the US and Iran. Attention now shifts to a dense week of economic catalysts that could spark fresh market volatility. Investors face an unusually heavy lineup of central-bank decisions, including meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ), alongside pivotal inflation and growth figures. Key releases such as US GDP, US core PCE inflation, and CPI reports from the Eurozone and Australia are expected to heavily influence global interest rate expectations. The diplomatic landscape saw a reprieve after the US suspended its two-week bombing campaign against Iran late Friday. Tehran responded by holding back retaliatory strikes against Washington's Middle Eastern allies for a second consecutive night. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz noted that while American forces remain locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give room for potential negotiations. Reuters corroborated this stance, quoting a senior Iranian official who stated that Tehran's policy remains "attack for attack"—meaning if US strikes halt, Iran will likewise suspend its military operations.

July 27, 2026

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC extends winning streak, ETH clears key hurdle, XRP steadies

Bitcoin trades above the 50-day EMA at $65,089 on Monday, printing four consecutive weeks of gains. Ethereum closes above the 100-day EMA at $1,934, signaling a bullish move ahead. XRP steadies at $1.10, with momentum indicating mild bullish signs. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) begin the week on a firm footing after surging over 1%, 4% and 1%, respectively, in the previous week. BTC holds above key technical resistance after recording its fourth consecutive weekly gain. ETH has strengthened its bullish outlook by closing above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while XRP stabilizes around $1.10, with momentum indicators suggesting a mild upside bias. Bitcoin could extend gains as it closes above the 50-day EMA Bitcoin price trades at $65,199 on Monday, holding a neutral-to-bullish bias as price sits above the 50-day EMA at $65,089 but remains capped by the 100-day EMA at $67,787 and the distant 200-day EMA near $73,848. The reclaim of the short-term EMA hints at an attempt to stabilize after recent volatility, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 signals moderate, rather than aggressive, buying pressure as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) cools with a still-positive but fading reading, suggesting upside attempts may face headwinds into overhead averages. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA near $67,787, with a subsequent barrier at the 200-day EMA around $73,848 and a major horizontal cap up at $84,410. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day EMA at $65,088, ahead of a more important horizontal floor at $64,004; a sustained break back below this band would weaken the current constructive tone and expose a deeper corrective phase. Ethereum closes above 100-day EMA Ethereum price trades at $1,945 on Monday after surging over 4% in the previous week. ETH is keeping a bullish near‑term bias as price holds above the 50‑day and 100‑day EMAs at roughly $1,841 and $1,934, respectively. This configuration suggests the recent advance is supported by the medium‑term trend, while the RSI near 62 points to firm but not extreme upside momentum. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, reinforcing the constructive tone as long as the pair stays above its reclaimed short‑ and medium‑term EMAs. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological $2,000 mark, with the 200‑day EMA higher up near $2,158 forming a more significant barrier that would need to be cleared to unlock a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100‑day EMA around $1,934, followed by the 50‑day EMA near $1,841; a break below the latter would suggest a deeper corrective phase toward the broader horizontal floor at $1,385. XRP steadies below key EMAs XRP price trades at $1.10 on Monday, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs clustered overhead from roughly $1.14 to $1.43. The structure suggests rallies are being capped by these descending EMAs, even as the RSI hovers near the neutral 50 line at 49 and the MACD remains marginally positive, hinting at only modest recovery attempts within a broader corrective phase. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 50-day EMA near $1.13, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.22 and the horizontal barrier at $1.30; above these, the 200-day EMA at $1.43 and the prior horizontal cap at the $1.90 mark are stronger medium-term supply zones. On the downside, the first notable support sits at the psychological and chart level of $1.00, where buyers may attempt to defend the latest pullback if selling pressure resumes.

July 27, 2026

Gasoline Prices Retreat

US gasoline prices slid to around $3.28 per gallon on Monday, retreating from a two-month high as reports of a pause in hostilities between Iran and the US offered some respite from supply concerns. Washington has paused its bombing campaign since late Friday after nearly two weeks of strikes. A senior Iranian official said Tehran would halt attacks if the US also refrains from further strikes, adding that the message had already been conveyed to Washington. The lull in hostilities coincided with Omani-mediated talks in Tehran on a provisional arrangement to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Ukraine shifted its focus from Russian oil refineries to maritime targets, though supply concerns persisted after earlier attacks damaged 24 of Russia's 34 largest refineries.

July 27, 2026

EU Gas Prices Slide as US and Iran Pause Strikes

European natural gas prices dropped more than 7% to below €59 per MWh on Monday, pulling back from a four-month high as tensions in the Middle East eased following a halt in military strikes between the US and Iran. The US has stopped launching further attacks on Iran since late Friday after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, while Tehran said on Sunday that it had also suspended its retaliatory operations. The pause came as Iranian and Omani officials held talks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that the key energy transit route could avoid further disruptions. However, concerns over Europe's gas supply security persisted due to relatively low storage levels and strong electricity demand driven by hot weather across the region. European gas storage facilities were currently 54.2% full, well below the 65% level recorded a year earlier, leaving the region vulnerable to potential winter supply shortages and price spikes.

July 27, 2026

Heating Oil Pulls Back

US heating oil prices fell toward $4.00 per gallon on Monday, pulling back from a more than three-month high as reports of a pause in hostilities between Iran and the US provided some relief from supply concerns. Washington has paused its bombing campaign since late Friday after nearly two weeks of strikes. A senior Iranian official said Tehran would halt attacks if the US also refrains from striking, adding that the message had already been conveyed to Washington. The pause coincided with Omani-mediated talks in Tehran on a provisional arrangement to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could reduce disruptions to oil flows. Beyond the Middle East, Russian fuel supplies remained constrained, with fewer than half of the refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes back in operation, leaving around 45 million tonnes of annual refining capacity offline. Forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather through August 7 could also support power-sector demand.

July 25, 2026

Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions take center stage

The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ). United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, Australian inflation and preliminary Eurozone growth and inflation figures will also attract significant attention. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 101.50 ahead of a particularly busy United States (US) economic calendar. Monday’s Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound by 1.6% in June after falling 4.5% previously, while orders excluding transportation are forecast to rise 0.9%. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%-0.07%-0.02%0.09%-0.19%-0.29%0.21%EUR-0.04%-0.15%-0.09%0.02%-0.29%-0.40%0.12%GBP0.07%0.15%0.09%0.16%-0.13%-0.21%0.27%JPY0.02%0.09%-0.09%0.11%-0.20%-0.29%0.19%CAD-0.09%-0.02%-0.16%-0.11%-0.30%-0.41%0.10%AUD0.19%0.29%0.13%0.20%0.30%-0.09%0.38%NZD0.29%0.40%0.21%0.29%0.41%0.09%0.49%CHF-0.21%-0.12%-0.27%-0.19%-0.10%-0.38%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Tuesday’s calendar includes Consumer Confidence and the ADP Employment Change four-week average, which eased to 16.5K previously. However, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be the main event for the Greenback. The Fed is widely expected to leave its target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. This will be a lighter meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections (aka the updated dot plot), leaving the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference as the main sources of guidance. The Fed’s official calendar confirms that the July 28–29 gathering is not one of the meetings associated with updated economic projections. The Fed decision will be followed by a major batch of US releases on Thursday. Preliminary second-quarter GDP is expected to show annualized growth of 2.3%, up from 2.1%, while monthly Core PCE inflation is forecast to slow to 0.1% from 0.3%. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 206K from 187K. Headline PCE inflation previously stood at 4.1% YoY, while the Core PCE Price Index was at 3.4%. Stronger growth or persistent inflation could support the Fed’s restrictive stance, while softer price pressures may reduce expectations of additional tightening. EUR/USD trades lower near 1.1370 despite encouraging July business-activity figures from Germany and the wider Eurozone. The Euro will face a busy domestic calendar, beginning with Monday’s German IFO surveys. The Business Climate Index is expected to improve to 86.1 from 85.6, while the EcoFin meeting and Bundesbank Monthly Report will also be monitored. German inflation figures will also be released on Thursday, followed by broader Eurozone inflation data on Friday. Eurozone headline Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% YoY from 2.8%, while the core rate is forecast to remain at 2.4%. Eurostat has scheduled the next Eurozone flash inflation estimate for July 31. Stronger growth and inflation figures could support the Euro by reducing expectations of additional European Central Bank (ECB) easing. However, EUR/USD will also remain highly sensitive to the Fed decision and the direction of the US Dollar. GBP/USD trades slightly higher near 1.3325 as investors prepare for Thursday’s BoE monetary policy announcement. The central bank is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, following the previous 7–2 vote in favor of holding rates. The decision will be accompanied by the Meeting Minutes, Monetary Policy Summary and quarterly Monetary Policy Report. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak following the announcement. The BoE confirms that the July 30 meeting will include both the policy decision and updated economic projections. USD/JPY holds near 163.80 ahead of a busy Japanese calendar and next Friday’s BoJ decision. Tokyo inflation will be released late Thursday, with CPI Excluding Fresh Food expected to rise 1.8% YoY from 1.6%. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain at 2.5%, while Retail Trade growth is expected to slow to 2.8% from 5.3%. The BoJ is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.00%. The monetary policy statement will be accompanied by the quarterly Outlook Report and followed by the Bank’s press conference. The BoJ calendar confirms that the meeting will take place on July 30 and 31, with the decision and Outlook Report scheduled for Friday. AUD/USD trades higher near 0.6980 ahead of several important Australian releases. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak on Tuesday, before June inflation figures are published on Wednesday. Monthly headline CPI is expected to increase 0.3% after falling 0.7% in May. Annual inflation previously stood at 4.0%, while the Trimmed Mean CPI was at 3.6% YoY. The underlying monthly measure is forecast to rise another 0.4%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has scheduled the June CPI report for July 29. China’s official PMIs will also be important for the China-sensitive Australian Dollar. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.9 from 50.3, signaling a return to contraction, while Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 50.0 from 50.2. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades lower near $89.20 per barrel after falling sharply on reports that Pakistan and Iran are exploring a path towards renewed US-Iran negotiations under a diplomatic push initiated by China. However, sources cautioned that substantial obstacles remain before negotiations can resume, leaving crude prices vulnerable to further geopolitical volatility. Gold advances near $4,065 as investors prepare for a central-bank-heavy week. The precious metal will be particularly sensitive to the Fed’s policy language, US inflation figures and Treasury yields. A hawkish message from Warsh could weigh on Gold, while softer PCE inflation or renewed geopolitical uncertainty may support demand for the non-yielding asset. Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon Tuesday, July 28: RBA Governor Michele Bullock Thursday, July 30: BoE Governor Bailey Central banks meetings and upcoming data releases Wednesday, July 29: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The meeting will not include updated projections or a dot plot, placing the focus on the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Thursday, July 30: The Bank of England is expected to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. The decision will be accompanied by the Meeting Minutes and Monetary Policy Report. Friday, July 31: The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 1.00%. The central bank

July 24, 2026

Trade of The Day – US100

Facts: US100 has defended support around 28,430 points on three separate occasions. The RSI (14) on the hourly chart has rebounded from around 30 to above 40 . Recommendation: Long position on US100 at market price Stop Loss: 28,433 Take Profit: 29,380 Opinion: The Nasdaq 100 futures contract (US100) remains within a descending price channel and is currently testing its lower boundary near 28,400 points . Given the strong U.S. earnings season so far, marked by a high number of positive surprises and upward guidance revisions, combined with the recent overbought conditions in the oil market following a more than 30% rally from around $70 , a rebound toward the middle of the price channel appears increasingly likely. This area also coincides with the 50-period and 200-period EMAs and a key resistance zone around 29,380 points , where two recent local highs were formed. The long recommendation, with a take-profit target at 29,380 and a stop-loss at 28,433 , is based on a combination of technical and fundamental analysis. Momentum indicators are also becoming more supportive, with both the RSI and MACD showing improving momentum and a bullish crossover. The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, highlighted by yesterday's exceptionally low initial jobless claims, a positive signal for technology companies that may continue to maintain pricing power. Importantly, many large-cap technology stocks remain well below their recent highs, with companies such as Alphabet still trading more than 20% below their peak levels . Semiconductor stocks have also undergone a meaningful correction, even as the world's largest hyperscalers continue to increase, rather than reduce, their planned AI infrastructure spending. Alphabet, which reported earnings on Wednesday, raised its capital expenditure guidance for this year, reinforcing confidence in AI-related investment trends. As a result, both momentum and fundamental factors increasingly favor a short-term rebound. The primary downside risk remains the oil market, where another sharp rally could renew inflation concerns and pressure growth-oriented equities. We therefore recommend a long position on US100 with the specified take-profit and a relatively tight stop-loss to protect against a potential bearish breakout below the lower boundary of the descending channel. Source: xStation5

July 24, 2026

Chart of The Day – OIL Pulls Back to Test $92.5 per Barrel

Key takeaways Donald Trump warned of further attacks on Iran, but oil prices are edging lower today, falling to $92.5 per barrel. Investors are closely watching the conflict’s trajectory in the context of the US midterm elections scheduled for this autumn. Brent crude oil (OIL) futures are edging lower today but continue to trade near $92.5 per barrel , after surging roughly 35% since the beginning of the month . Yesterday, Donald Trump warned that he is considering a larger military strike against Iran than ever before and said he is close to making a final decision. While this does not necessarily mean military action is imminent, it underscores the exceptionally high level of tensions between the two countries, with neither side currently appearing to view de-escalation as the most likely outcome. On the other hand, the White House is increasingly mindful of the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for this autumn. Political considerations could reduce the administration's willingness to sustain a prolonged conflict later in the year, potentially compressing the decision-making window for any escalation into the coming weeks, before the election campaign intensifies. If a major escalation ultimately fails to materialize, investors may increasingly price in a return to diplomatic negotiations as the most probable scenario. In that case, keeping oil prices sustainably above $100 per barrel could prove difficult over the coming months, despite the currently tight physical market. Meanwhile, continued Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the possibility of broader U.S. military action against Iran are keeping supply risks elevated. Investors also worry that relatively low global oil inventories could amplify any supply shock if transportation routes or production are disrupted further. Higher oil prices are once again increasing the risk of persistent inflation, supporting government bond yields and potentially encouraging central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer. At the same time, more expensive energy weighs on the global economic outlook by increasing transportation, manufacturing, and electricity costs while reducing households' real purchasing power. OIL technical analysis (D1) On the daily chart, Brent crude is trading between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous downward move. The $98 per barrel area (61.8% Fibonacci) and $102.5 per barrel (71.6% Fibonacci) currently represent the key resistance levels to watch. On the downside, important support levels are located near $87 and $81 per barrel , corresponding to the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively. Source: xStation5

July 24, 2026

Intel Surprised the Market. Is the Turnaround Finally Gaining Momentum?

Ahead of Intel’s earnings release, the key question on investors’ minds was whether the company’s lengthy restructuring efforts were finally starting to deliver tangible results. The second-quarter report provided a much stronger answer than expected. Intel not only comfortably beat analysts’ estimates on both revenue and earnings, but also issued a stronger-than-expected outlook for the third quarter, a development that was welcomed enthusiastically by investors. Key Second-Quarter Highlights Revenue: $16.1 billion vs. $14.4 billion expected Adjusted EPS: $0.42 vs. consensus of $0.21 Data Center & AI revenue: $6.3 billion, up 59% year over year Intel Foundry revenue: $5.8 billion, up 31% year over year Gross margin: 40.4% vs. 39.2% expected Q3 revenue guidance: $15.8–16.8 billion vs. consensus of around $15.1 billion Q3 EPS guidance: $0.38 vs. expectations of $0.27 Following the earnings release, Intel shares moved sharply higher in after-hours trading. Investors were encouraged not only by the stronger-than-expected quarterly results but also by management’s decision to raise guidance for the coming quarter. In the technology sector, forward-looking guidance often carries even greater weight than historical results. One of the strongest aspects of the report was the Data Center & AI business, where revenue surged 59% year over year. The performance suggests Intel is beginning to benefit from the massive wave of investment in computing infrastructure. As more companies expand their data center capacity, demand for server processors—one of Intel’s core products—continues to accelerate. Management’s commentary also reinforced the positive outlook. CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated that demand for Intel’s server processors is currently exceeding the company’s manufacturing capacity. In response, Intel plans to increase capital spending to expand production and meet growing demand for both its own chips and foundry services provided to external customers. This reflects a broader shift in the AI investment cycle. Early in the boom, most attention was focused on chips used to train artificial intelligence models. Increasingly, however, the market is turning its attention to the infrastructure required to deploy and run those models at scale. In that environment, server CPUs remain a critical foundation of modern data centers. Another encouraging sign was the significant improvement in profitability. Gross margin rose to 40.4%, up from 29.7% a year earlier, while Intel returned to positive operating income. At the same time, the company announced plans to increase this year’s capital expenditures to approximately $20 billion, citing robust demand for computing infrastructure and continued expansion of its manufacturing business. That said, Intel’s turnaround is far from complete. The company is still rebuilding after years of losing technological leadership and market share. Profit margins remain well below historical peak levels, and the foundry business continues to rely primarily on internal demand from Intel’s own business units. Winning more external customers and sustaining the current pace of improvement remain key challenges. Still, today’s earnings report delivers something investors have been waiting for: evidence that Intel’s restructuring is no longer just about cost cuts and workforce reductions. The benefits are now becoming visible in the financial results. Stronger revenue, improving profitability, and higher guidance all suggest that Intel is beginning to regain its footing in one of the semiconductor industry’s most important segments. Today’s report does not mean Intel has fully returned to its former position. It does, however, suggest that the turnaround is no longer just a story told in investor presentations. For the first time in quite a while, it is being backed up by the numbers.

July 24, 2026

Stock of the Week: TSMC – The Manufacturing Engine Behind the AI Revolution

In recent years, the technology market has focused primarily on companies developing artificial intelligence solutions. Nvidia provides the chips powering modern data centers, Microsoft and Google are investing billions of dollars in computing infrastructure, and countless businesses are trying to integrate generative AI into their products and services. However, behind every major AI success story stands a company whose role often receives far less attention, despite being one of the most important elements enabling the entire industry to grow. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is where a significant share of the world’s most advanced semiconductors are produced. The chips designed by companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Apple and Broadcom are manufactured in TSMC’s facilities before becoming the foundation of the most important devices, servers and data centers supporting the global economy. The company’s position is unique because TSMC does not compete with its customers. Unlike traditional semiconductor companies, it does not design its own processors or graphics cards. Instead, it focuses exclusively on the most complex stage of the semiconductor value chain: large scale chip manufacturing. This business model has allowed TSMC to become the critical link between semiconductor design and physical production. Recent quarterly results showed that the investment cycle connected with artificial intelligence is still accelerating. The company reached record levels of revenue, maintained exceptionally high profitability and presented a very positive outlook for the coming quarters. Particularly important was the growing contribution of the High Performance Computing segment, which includes chips used in artificial intelligence infrastructure and advanced data centers. For investors, TSMC’s results matter far beyond the performance of a single company. In many technology businesses, a quarterly report mainly reflects the condition of one specific enterprise. TSMC, however, provides one of the clearest signals of real demand for the most advanced technologies. When the world’s largest technology companies increase spending on artificial intelligence development, demand for TSMC’s production capacity rises as well. The story of TSMC is therefore, in many ways, the story of the entire semiconductor industry. The company is not only benefiting from the growth of artificial intelligence, but also making that growth possible. Every new stage of AI development requires more advanced chips, and their production sits at the very center of TSMC’s business. The key question for investors is therefore not only how much artificial intelligence can grow, but also who will capture the economic value created by this transformation. TSMC is positioned at one of the most important points in the entire technology ecosystem. In the following sections, we will examine why the Taiwanese company has built one of the most difficult competitive advantages in the world to replicate, how artificial intelligence is changing the structure of its business and whether the current valuation still leaves room for further growth. Why TSMC Is One of the Most Important Semiconductor Companies in the World In the case of TSMC, the greatest advantage is not a single product, but the company’s position within the global technology supply chain. The Taiwanese company created the pure play foundry model, meaning a semiconductor manufacturer that produces chips exclusively for external customers. This approach allows the world’s largest technology companies to design their most advanced chips while relying on a partner with unmatched manufacturing capabilities. This model has made TSMC one of the most important foundations of the digital economy. The company produces chips used by Nvidia, AMD, Apple and many other technology leaders, while the rise of artificial intelligence has further increased its strategic importance. The structure of TSMC’s business has clearly shifted toward artificial intelligence and high performance computing. The High Performance Computing segment has become the company’s main growth engine, replacing the previous dominance of consumer electronics. This means the current semiconductor cycle is not driven primarily by smartphone or computer upgrades, but by the long term expansion of infrastructure required to develop and operate AI models. However, TSMC’s advantage is not based only on scale. Manufacturing the world’s most advanced semiconductors is one of the most complex industrial processes ever created. Building a semiconductor facility is not enough. The real challenge is achieving mass production with the required level of quality, efficiency and consistency. This is exactly why TSMC’s position is so difficult to challenge. Over decades, the company has built relationships with the largest technology companies in the world, developed a powerful supplier ecosystem and invested hundreds of billions of dollars into successive generations of manufacturing technology. Today, TSMC benefits from both rising demand for AI chips and the increasing value of each individual semiconductor produced. TSMC’s Technological Advantage: From 3nm to the 2nm Era In the semiconductor industry, developing a new technology is not the biggest challenge. The real difficulty lies in the ability to manufacture that technology at massive scale while maintaining high quality, efficiency and reliability. This is where TSMC has built one of its strongest competitive advantages. The most advanced manufacturing processes, including 3nm and the upcoming 2nm technology, allow companies to create chips with higher performance and lower energy consumption. This is especially important for artificial intelligence data centers, where even small improvements in efficiency can translate into significant reductions in operating costs across enormous computing infrastructures. The 3nm process has become one of the key drivers of TSMC’s current growth. As the company moves toward mass production of 2nm chips, it is entering another stage of technological development that should help maintain its leadership in the most demanding segments of the semiconductor market. At the same time, advanced semiconductor packaging is becoming increasingly important. The future of artificial intelligence is no longer based only on making transistors smaller. The most powerful AI systems require the integration of multiple chips into highly efficient computing systems. This creates two parallel growth opportunities for TSMC. On one side, demand continues to rise for the most advanced manufacturing processes. On the other side, additional technologies related to chip integration and advanced packaging are becoming increasingly valuable parts of the semiconductor ecosystem. The Market Received Exactly What It Was Looking For TSMC’s quarterly results have become one of the most important events during earnings season for the semiconductor industry. The reason is simple. The Taiwanese company sits at the center of the global technology supply chain, meaning its results provide insight not only into its own business performance, but also into the investment activity of the world’s largest companies developing artificial intelligence. The second quarter of 2026 delivered exactly the type of performance investors were expecting. TSMC exceeded its own forecasts, achieving record revenue levels and maintaining exceptional profitability. Even more important than the headline numbers was management’s commentary regarding future quarters. The company increased its expectations for revenue growth and maintained a highly positive outlook for artificial intelligence and high performance computing demand. Revenue reached $40.2 billion, representing a 36% increase compared with the previous year and the highest level in the company’s history. Net income increased by approximately 77% year over year. Gross margin reached 67.7%, exceeding previous expectations. The High Performance Computing segment accounted for approximately 66% of total revenue. Technologies based on 7nm processes and more advanced nodes represented around 77% of wafer revenue, while demand for 3nm technology continued to grow rapidly. The results highlighted several important trends. First, the current semiconductor growth cycle is fundamentally different from previous periods. This time, the main driver is not consumer electronics, but the infrastructure required for artificial intelligence development. A few years ago, TSMC’s results were strongly connected with the condition of the smartphone market. Today, a much larger role is played by chips used in data centers, AI accelerators and high performance computing systems. This segment has become the largest part of the company’s business and remains its primary source of growth. Another important signal is profitability. In the semiconductor industry, rapid growth often requires enormous investments and can create pressure on margins. TSMC demonstrates a different reality. Strong demand for the most advanced chips allows the company to maintain exceptional profitability because customers are willing to pay premium prices for access to limited manufacturing capacity based on the latest technologies. Importantly, TSMC is not benefiting only from higher production volumes. As customers transition toward increasingly advanced manufacturing processes, the value of each individual order also increases. The production of 3nm chips, development of 2nm technology and expansion of advanced packaging capabilities place the company in the most attractive part of the semiconductor market. Investors also reacted positively to the company’s outlook for the following quarters. Management expects demand to remain strong, with third quarter revenue projected to increase further to approximately $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. At the same time, TSMC continues to expect very high margins, confirming that current market conditions remain exceptionally favorable. However, such rapid expansion requires massive investment. TSMC is increasing spending on new manufacturing facilities, technology development and production capacity expansion to meet demand from customers such as Nvidia, AMD and Apple. The scale of these investments represents both the company’s greatest strength and one of its biggest challenges. They allow TSMC to maintain its technological advantage, but they also require significant capital and careful management of the investment cycle. The quarterly report confirmed the central part of the TSMC investment thesis. The company is not simply benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom. It occupies a position where this boom must physically take place. Every new stage of AI development requires greater computing power, more advanced chips and increasingly complex semiconductor manufacturing. Financial Analysis: Turning Technological Leadership Into Record Results A dominant technological position alone is not enough to define an exceptional business. The key question is whether a company’s competitive advantage translates into superior financial performance. In the case of TSMC, recent years have shown that the company has become not only the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, but also one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom. The first factor that stands out is revenue growth. After a weaker period across the semiconductor industry caused partly by inventory corrections following the pandemic, TSMC returned to a strong growth trajectory. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached a record $40.2 billion, representing a 36% increase year over year. This recovery demonstrates that the company is positioned directly at the center of the current AI investment cycle. Even more impressive is the structure of this growth. It is not driven only by higher production volumes, but mainly by a shift toward the most advanced technologies. The High Performance Computing segment, which includes AI chips and processors used in data centers, now represents around two thirds of company revenue. This is a fundamental change compared with previous semiconductor cycles, when consumer electronics played a much larger role. TSMC’s strongest financial characteristic remains its profitability. Semiconductor manufacturing requires enormous capital expenditure, which means many companies in the sector struggle with margin pressure. TSMC operates in a completely different environment. Thanks to technological leadership, high utilization rates and strong negotiating power with customers, the company maintains margins rarely seen in traditional manufacturing businesses. In the second quarter of 2026, operating margin reached 56.1%, while net margin stood at 50.4%. Such profitability demonstrates that TSMC is not competing only through manufacturing scale. The highest value comes from the most advanced technologies, where the number of potential competitors is extremely limited. One of the most impressive aspects of TSMC’s business model is its ability to maintain high margins despite record investment levels. Every year, the company spends tens of billions of dollars on new factories, research and development, and production capacity expansion. In theory, such aggressive expansion could reduce returns on capital, but the current market structure allows TSMC to successfully monetize these investments. A key measure of business quality is return on invested capital. A strong ROIC demonstrates that TSMC’s enormous investments are not simply costs, but assets generating long term value for shareholders. The company’s financial position is also extremely strong. TSMC maintains a solid balance sheet, giving it significant flexibility to execute future investment projects. This is especially important in an industry where maintaining competitive advantage requires constant spending on research, new facilities and next generation technologies. Cash flow generation is another important strength. Despite enormous capital expenditures, TSMC remains a business capable of generating substantial amounts of cash. The company finances its expansion primarily through the strength of its own operations, reducing dependence on external financing and preserving strategic independence. The greatest proof of TSMC’s business quality is therefore not only its growth rate, but its ability to combine several difficult characteristics at the same time. The company is expanding its scale, investing record amounts into the future and maintaining some of the highest margins in the entire technology sector. This combination is what makes TSMC far more than just a chip manufacturer. It is one of the most important companies supporting the development of the global artificial intelligence infrastructure. What Will Drive TSMC in the Coming Years? For TSMC, the most important question is not whether the company is currently the leader of the semiconductor market. Its position remains exceptionally strong. The much more important question is whether the current pace of growth can continue in the coming years and whether today’s investments will translate into further financial expansion. The biggest growth driver remains artificial intelligence. The current investment cycle is different from previous semiconductor upcycles because it is not driven mainly by consumer device upgrades. This time, the key factor is the construction of the entire infrastructure required to develop AI models, operate data centers and support systems that require enormous computing power. This is exactly where TSMC occupies a unique position. The company manufactures some of the most advanced chips for the largest technology companies in the world, and growing demand for AI accelerators and server processors directly translates into higher orders. The High Performance Computing segment has become the most important part of TSMC’s business, and everything indicates that its importance will continue increasing. Another major growth factor is the development of new generations of manufacturing technology. The transition to the 2nm process will be one of the most important milestones in TSMC’s history because it should allow the company to maintain its leadership in the most demanding areas of the semiconductor market. For companies developing artificial intelligence systems, every improvement in chip performance and energy efficiency has enormous importance, especially as data centers consume increasing amounts of electricity. At the same time, advanced semiconductor packaging is becoming an increasingly important source of competitive advantage. Modern AI systems are no longer built only around individual chips produced using the newest manufacturing processes. The ability to combine multiple components into a single, highly efficient computing system is becoming equally important. Technologies such as CoWoS are therefore becoming another pillar of TSMC’s advantage and an additional source of revenue growth. As artificial intelligence models become more complex, demand for advanced packaging solutions should continue increasing. Another important factor is TSMC’s ability to maintain high margins. Strong demand for the most advanced technologies gives the company the ability to gradually increase pricing and improve the quality of its revenue mix. When production capacity remains limited and customers compete for access to the newest manufacturing technologies, TSMC’s negotiating position remains extremely strong. However, the company also faces significant challenges. Expanding manufacturing capacity outside Taiwan, including new facilities in the United States, Japan and Europe, requires enormous capital investment. Annual spending reaching tens of billions of dollars demonstrates how capital intensive the semiconductor industry has become. At the same time, these investments are essential if TSMC wants to maintain its technological leadership and satisfy growing customer demand. In the long term, TSMC’s greatest advantage is the fact that almost every scenario involving further artificial intelligence development requires more advanced semiconductors. If technology companies continue increasing spending on AI infrastructure, TSMC should remain one of the main beneficiaries of this transformation. The company’s growth story is therefore not based on one specific product or a short term market trend. It is built on the increasing importance of semiconductors across the global economy and the fact that more industries are becoming dependent on advanced computing power. A Strong Business With Exceptional Advantages, But Also Extremely High Expectations TSMC’s greatest strength is its difficult to replicate competitive advantage. Decades of investment in technology, enormous production scale and close relationships with the world’s largest technology companies have created a business model that is extremely difficult to challenge. Competitors can invest billions of dollars into new factories, but rebuilding the complete ecosystem, manufacturing expertise and customer trust developed by TSMC would require many years. At the same time, the company faces challenges typical for an organization positioned at the center of a global technology race. The increasing scale of investments requires continued strong demand, while expanding production outside Taiwan increases operating complexity and costs. Another important factor is geopolitics and the risk associated with concentrating the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity on a single island. For investors, however, the biggest question is not whether TSMC is an exceptional company. The fundamentals clearly suggest that it is. The key issue is whether the pace of artificial intelligence development, rising demand for computing power and continued adoption of advanced semiconductors will be strong enough to justify current market expectations. The investment thesis behind TSMC is based on the belief that artificial intelligence is not a temporary trend, but a technological transformation comparable to previous digital revolutions. If this scenario unfolds, the Taiwanese company should remain one of the biggest beneficiaries of this structural change. TSMC represents a business with exceptional characteristics: enormous barriers to entry, outstanding profitability and strategic importance for the entire technology ecosystem. However, this very strength also creates high expectations. In the coming years, investors will need to evaluate not only whether TSMC can continue growing faster than the broader market, but also whether the scale of future growth will be sufficient to justify the company’s current valuation. TSMC is no longer simply a semiconductor manufacturer. It has become one of the most important infrastructure companies behind the artificial intelligence revolution. The future performance of the company will depend not only on technological leadership, but also on whether global demand for AI capabilities continues expanding at a pace capable of supporting today’s ambitious expectations. Source: xStation5

July 23, 2026

Chart of The Day – No changes in the Far East, USD/JPY Hits New Highs

USD/JPY is breaking out to new 40-year highs above 163.30 , and the market is signalling that the acceleration in the pace of the BOJ’s rate rises is already largely priced in. Traffic conditions on the D1 The price has broken through the previous resistance level of 163.00 (purple line) and is reaching new highs in the 163.30–163.40 range, whilst the RSI (14) remains in a strong uptrend at around 69.4, close to the overbought zone. The candlesticks are holding above the EMA50 (161.32), EMA100 (160.13) and EMA200 (158.12), and the EMA configuration (rising, in the order 50 > 100 > 200) confirms a strong bullish trend. The price is close to the upper Bollinger Band (163.92), which signals strong momentum but also the risk of a short-term correction before the next attempt to break through the resistance at 164.00. Why do the markets already price in faster BOJ rate rises? The OIS (overnight index swap) market for 22 July 2026 implies a rate of 0.981 per cent, compared with an effective rate of 0.977 per cent, whilst contracts up to the 18 December meeting are already pricing in a rise to 1.277 per cent – effectively discounting approximately 1.2 rate rises in full. This means that reports of the BOJ’s readiness to accelerate the pace of rate rises come as no surprise to the market – investors began pricing in a more aggressive cycle well ahead of the consensus among economists. This is also confirmed by the table of 1-month price changes: the cumulative change (“Total Change 1M”) for Japan is zero, which indicates that the market is no longer revising its forecasts upwards, but is instead stabilising following the earlier movement – the “faster pace” is, to a large extent, already behind us in terms of prices. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP Carry trade remains dominant despite rate rises The interest rate differential between Japan (1.00%, following a rise to a 31-year high) and the effective US rate (3.63%) remains huge, and the two-year US-Japan yield spread has widened to 285 basis points – its widest level since August last year. Even a potential further 25 bp rate rise would do little to reduce the appeal of this spread, which is fuelling carry trades based on the low cost of yen-denominated financing relative to high-yielding currencies such as the BRL, MXN and AUD. The fundamental ‘loop’ driving the yen’s weakness Apart from monetary policy, the yen is suffering from a ‘doom loop’ – Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s loose fiscal policy (debt-to-GDP ratio over 200 per cent) combined with the BOJ’s insufficiently tight monetary policy, which is pushing the yield on 10-year JGBs up to 2.90 per cent, the highest level in 30 years. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has once again signalled her readiness to take “decisive action” in the foreign exchange market, however, interventions to date (totalling around US$215 billion since 2022) have failed to reverse the trend of yen weakness on a sustained basis, which undermines the credibility of such announcements in the eyes of investors. The options market confirms that there are no fears of a shock The falling 1-month ATM implied volatility for USD/JPY since 2022, despite the deepening weakness in the spot market, suggests that options are not pricing in any significant risk of a sudden reversal – such as a sharp intervention or an unexpected rate hike – but rather a continuation of the current narrative regarding the currency. Source: Bloomberg Financial Lp

July 23, 2026

Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY

Facts: The bounced off the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 217.52 Main trend on the pair remains upward Recommendation: Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 220.16 Stop: 216.92 Opinion: Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support on Tuesday. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as previous price reactions. In addition the price sits above the 100-period moving average from the H4 interval. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support area 217.52-217.80, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 216.92

July 23, 2026

Lockheed Martin and RTX raise guidance. Defense stocks move higher

Key takeaways The largest U.S. defense contractors surprised investors with strong quarterly earnings. Lockheed Martin and RTX shares are up more than 5% following their earnings reports. Both companies raised their full-year guidance and delivered stronger-than-expected growth. Shares of U.S. defense giants Lockheed Martin and RTX are rising after both companies reported strong second-quarter results. Both firms exceeded Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings while raising their full-year guidance. The results reinforce that the global defense spending boom continues to translate into record order inflows and improving financial performance for the world's largest defense contractors. Key facts Lockheed Martin increased revenue by 11% year-over-year to $20.06 billion, reported EPS of $7.94, and raised its full-year 2026 guidance. RTX posted 14% year-over-year revenue growth to $24.71 billion, while adjusted EPS increased to $1.89. The company also raised its full-year revenue, earnings, and free cash flow outlook. The combined order backlog of both companies now exceeds $500 billion, highlighting that demand for defense equipment continues to outpace the industry's production capacity. Lockheed Martin benefits from rising missile and ammunition production Lockheed Martin generated $20.06 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 11% from a year earlier. Net income reached $1.84 billion, while earnings per share increased to $7.94, comfortably beating market expectations. Growth was broad-based across nearly every business segment, including Aeronautics, Missiles & Fire Control, Rotary & Mission Systems, and Space. Management emphasized that increasing production of missiles and ammunition remains one of the company's primary growth drivers. The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance, now expecting revenue of $79.75-81.75 billion and earnings per share of $29.95-30.65. Lockheed Martin finished the quarter with an order backlog of approximately $230 billion, providing exceptional long-term revenue visibility. Lockheed Martin shares are trading around $542 in pre-market trading, suggesting a potential test of the long-term downtrend and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200), represented by the red line, which separates bearish from bullish long-term momentum. Source: xStation5 RTX benefits from both the commercial aerospace recovery and higher defense spending RTX also reported results ahead of consensus estimates. Revenue increased 14% year-over-year to $24.71 billion, while adjusted earnings per share reached $1.89. Unlike many defense contractors, RTX continues to benefit from two independent growth engines: rising military spending and the ongoing recovery in global commercial aviation. Sales at the Raytheon segment increased 18%, Pratt & Whitney grew 16%, while Collins Aerospace delivered 8% revenue growth. RTX also raised its full-year outlook, now expecting revenue of $95-96 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.10-7.25. RTX shares are trading around $204 in pre-market trading, close to their all-time highs. If the stock opens near this level, it would represent a rebound of roughly 20% from its local low recorded in May. Source: xStation5 Record order backlogs suggest production capacity—not demand—is becoming the industry's biggest constraint The most important takeaway from both earnings reports is not simply the quarterly earnings beat, but the continued expansion of their order books. Lockheed Martin ended the quarter with an order backlog worth approximately $230 billion, while RTX increased its backlog to a record $289 billion, including roughly $119 billion in defense contracts. Combined, the two companies now hold more than $519 billion in future orders awaiting execution. For investors, this provides further evidence that the world's defense industry is no longer constrained by demand or government funding. Instead, the key challenge is rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity for missiles, munitions, air defense systems, and other critical military equipment to meet NATO's multi-year rearmament plans and replenish depleted inventories.

July 23, 2026

Wheat climbs to the highest level since May 2024. Black Sea export risks fuel rally

CBOT wheat futures have climbed above 700 cents per bushel for the first time in months as investors increasingly price in growing risks to global grain supplies. The rally is being driven by escalating disruptions to Black Sea exports, disappointing U.S. spring wheat crop prospects, and tightening global supply expectations following recent USDA reports. Key facts CBOT wheat futures have risen above 700 cents per bushel , extending July's rally as concerns over global wheat supplies intensify. Russia reportedly suspended nighttime grain shipments from the port of Novorossiysk following Ukrainian drone attacks, raising concerns over exports from one of the world's largest grain terminals. The USDA recently lowered its estimate for U.S. wheat planted acreage to the lowest level since 1970, while U.S. spring wheat yield estimates are also deteriorating. Black Sea export disruptions increase concerns over global wheat supplies The latest leg of the rally has been triggered by renewed tensions in the Black Sea region. According to market reports, Russia temporarily suspended nighttime grain exports from the port of Novorossiysk after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks. Investors fear that further disruptions could affect export flows from the world's largest wheat exporter. The concern extends beyond a single port. Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly one-third of global wheat exports, meaning that any increase in logistical disruptions immediately raises the risk premium embedded in global grain prices. Insurance costs for shipping through the region have also increased, while analysts continue to monitor whether Russia will be forced to redirect more grain exports via rail or alternative routes, which would raise transportation costs. USDA reports and weaker U.S. harvest expectations strengthen the bullish case Supply concerns are not limited to the Black Sea. The U.S. Department of Agriculture surprised markets in late June by revising U.S. wheat planted acreage down to 42.74 million acres , around 6% below last year and the lowest level since 1970. The July WASDE report further reinforced expectations of tighter U.S. supplies by lowering production and ending stock estimates. At the same time, the annual North Dakota Crop Tour reported average spring wheat yields of 45.9 bushels per acre , almost four bushels below last year's level. Because North Dakota is America's largest producer of high-protein spring wheat, weaker yields could tighten supplies of premium-quality wheat later this year. Heat in Europe adds further pressure to global wheat production Weather conditions are also contributing to the rally. Western Europe experienced prolonged heat during the critical grain-filling stage, reducing both yields and crop quality. France's Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the country's 2026 soft wheat production will reach approximately 32 million tonnes , around 4% lower than last year and below the five-year average. Rising prices in France and Romania, where export wheat has gained roughly $16-19 per tonne over the past week, further illustrate tightening supply conditions across Europe. Technical analysis: wheat futures break above 700 cents per bushel CBOT wheat futures have broken above the psychologically important 700-cent-per-bushel level, extending the recovery that began in early July. The market has now gained nearly 10% this month , making wheat one of the strongest-performing agricultural commodities during July. The next catalyst will likely be the USDA's weekly export sales report. Reuters estimates suggest U.S. wheat export sales could range between 200,000 and 550,000 tonnes . Strong export demand, combined with continued Black Sea disruptions and weather-related production risks, could provide additional support for wheat prices in the coming weeks. Source: xStation5

July 23, 2026

US Open: Alphabet and Tesla Weigh on Wall Street, While Oil Prices Renew Investor Concerns

Wall Street remains under pressure today, with the major indices trading on the weaker side of the market. Investors are trying to find direction amid mixed signals from the earnings season, macroeconomic data, and rising geopolitical tensions. Although some of the largest technology companies delivered results above expectations, the market reaction remains cautious, showing that strong earnings alone are no longer always enough to justify very high valuations. The biggest focus today is on the earnings reports from Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Tesla. Both companies delivered results that exceeded analysts’ forecasts, but investors have responded with mixed sentiment. Alphabet continues to benefit from the expansion of artificial intelligence and a strong advertising business, but the market is increasingly looking for clearer returns from the company’s massive AI investments. The company reported further revenue growth, supported by strong momentum in Google Cloud and continued strength in its advertising segment. At the same time, Alphabet is increasing spending on AI-related infrastructure, which could weigh on cash flows in the short term but is aimed at strengthening the company’s position in the race for AI leadership. In Tesla’s case, investors are focusing on the company’s plans related to artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and the Optimus project. However, market participants remain cautious due to pressure on margins and increasing competition in the electric vehicle sector. Tesla’s results showed higher sales and continued progress in key technology projects, but lower profitability and higher spending on new solutions are limiting short-term improvements in financial performance. Tesla is increasingly positioning itself as a technology company rather than just a car manufacturer, with a focus on autonomous vehicles, robotics, and AI-based solutions. Investors remain divided, as the potential of these projects is significant, but translating them into meaningful revenue streams may require more time and further substantial investment. After today’s session, Intel will publish its earnings report. Investors will pay particular attention to the condition of its processor business, management commentary on future demand, and the company’s position in an increasingly competitive semiconductor market. Meanwhile, attention remains on the latest US economic data. Initial jobless claims came in at 187,000, well below expectations of 212,000, confirming that the US labour market remains resilient. Strong employment data is a positive signal for the economy, but it also reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates. Investors continue to wait for further inflation data and additional guidance on the future direction of monetary policy. Another source of concern remains the oil market. Crude prices are once again moving toward the $100 per barrel level amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the risk of supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf region. The market fears that further conflict escalation could increase inflationary pressures again and make it more difficult for central banks to ease monetary policy. Today’s session highlights that the US market remains under significant pressure, with investor sentiment deteriorating noticeably. On one hand, the economy remains relatively strong, and the largest technology companies continue to benefit from AI-driven growth. On the other hand, investors are becoming increasingly focused on elevated valuations, while geopolitical risks, energy prices, and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy remain additional headwinds. As a result, the major indices remain under pressure. Source: XTB Research S&P 500 futures (US500) remain under pressure today following a period of strong gains. The index is consolidating near record highs, while the market struggles to maintain further upward momentum. The weaker sentiment is mainly driven by a more cautious view of the technology sector following Alphabet’s and Tesla’s earnings reports, which, despite positive results, failed to fully meet the market’s elevated expectations. Additional risk comes from rising tensions in the Middle East, which are increasing pressure on commodity prices and once again shifting investors’ attention toward the possibility of oil prices moving back toward $100 per barrel. Source: xStation5 Corporate News Elon Musk announced that Micron (MU.US) has secured a significant supply of memory chips for Tesla (TSLA.US), helping reduce risks related to the availability of critical components needed for AI development. Securing supply could support Tesla’s further expansion in autonomous driving, robotics, and computing infrastructure. However, investors will continue to assess how quickly these investments translate into measurable business results. Texas Instruments (TXN.US) reported second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, but despite the positive report, the company’s shares remain under pressure, falling around 3%. The cautious market reaction was mainly driven by concerns over cash flow generation and high capital expenditures related to expanding manufacturing capacity. At the same time, the long-term outlook remains supported by improving conditions in the semiconductor sector, a recovery in industrial demand, and rising demand for chips used in data centres and AI infrastructure. Lockheed Martin (LMT.US) reported second-quarter results that significantly exceeded market expectations, triggering a positive reaction in its share price. The company generated revenue of $20.1 billion, while earnings per share reached $7.94, supported by sales growth across all key segments, particularly missile systems and missile defence. Lockheed Martin also raised its full-year guidance, pointing to a strong order backlog and continued high demand for defence technologies. Source: XTB Research

July 18, 2026

What’s next for Brent crude.Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in three weeks

As of noon on Friday, the price of Brent crude has remained within a narrow range around $85.50 per barrel for the fourth consecutive trading session, fluctuating between 50- and 100 -day exponential moving averages, as investors weigh the impact of reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz against the backdrop of a general lack of new factors driving the market. Source: xStation According to data collected by Bloomberg on vessel tracking, the number of confirmed ship crossings through the strait fell to eight on July 16, the lowest figure in three weeks. It was the fourth consecutive day on which traffic through this narrow passage—through which about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil shipments typically pass—remained largely concentrated on the Iranian side of the strait, where seven of the eight recorded crossings took place. Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P. Another threat is also looming in the background. The risk of another disruption to shipping in the Red Sea has clearly increased with the escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. According to Reuters sources, Tehran reportedly asked the Yemeni Houthi movement to remain on standby to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait should the U.S. attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. In June, approximately 7.4 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the strait daily, accounting for roughly 7 percent of global production. This volume has increased from about 4.2 million barrels per day in 2025, as some supplies from the region have been rerouted to routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz (such as the “East-West” pipeline). For now, the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA) are acting as a magnet for the price, and the RSI at around 58 suggests that neither buyers nor sellers have enough confidence to force a breakout from the price range. However, a breakout in either direction could determine the trend in this commodity’s price in the coming days.

July 18, 2026

Three Markets Worth Watching Next Week

Over the past week, financial markets remained under the influence of the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Several companies published their financial data for the past quarter, which unofficially kicked off the earnings season. Now, investors' attention will shift to the final central bank decisions before a long break, as well as earnings releases from tech giants. These will be a major test for still high valuations, despite recent sharp declines in the stock markets. Therefore, the instruments worth watching closely this week are US100, EURUSD, and GBPUSD. US100 (Nasdaq fut.) The US tech index is entering a phase of a crucial fundamental test. Following recent severe selloffs, investors will analyze whether upcoming financial reports from Wall Street and administrative decisions in Washington will be able to improve overall market sentiment. On Wednesday, we will learn the financial results of tech giants from the Mag7 group, namely Alphabet and Tesla, while on Thursday, Intel will present its Q2 report. These results will verify whether the high valuations of companies linked to artificial intelligence technology and the EV sector are truly reflected in hard revenue and earnings data. Although a trade war is not a dominant headline at the moment, it is worth noting that a temporary 10% global import tariff in the US expires on Friday, unless Congress decides to extend it. Any potential expiration or modification of this policy will directly affect the margins and supply chain costs of US companies. Tech giants' earnings seasons have redefined Wall Street trends time and again. For instance, during the market turmoil from 2021 to 2022, even a slight disappointment in the forward guidance of just one sector leader could wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization from the entire index in a single session, triggering a cascading sellof. EURUSD The major currency pair will react to a potential hawkish pause by the European Central Bank and a series of important macroeconomic readings. On Thursday, the ECB will make its interest rate decision, and markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged. June's slowdown in inflation removed the need for urgent action, but the market's focus will shift entirely to Christine Lagarde's press conference and any hints regarding a potential hike in September. Before the ECB decision, the German ZEW economic sentiment index will be published on Tuesday. On Friday, the market will be flooded with a wave of preliminary PMI data from France, Germany, the entire Eurozone, and later in the afternoon, from the United States. High natural gas prices and sustained energy commodity prices remain a headwind for the euro. Combined with mixed economic sentiment across Europe, this limits the room for any sustained strengthening of the single currency. GBPUSD The British pound faces a confluence of key political and macroeconomic events, making it one of the most volatile currency instruments this week. On Monday, Andy Burnham is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, becoming the seventh head of government since the 2016 Brexit referendum. A change in the country's leader always brings about a swift market evaluation of political stability. On Wednesday, the UK's June CPI inflation report will be released. The headline figure is expected to drop to 2.7% year over year, down from 2.8%. Such a reading, combined with Tuesday's labor market data, including the claimant count and unemployment rate, could reinforce market expectations that the Bank of England will be in no rush to raise borrowing costs, given the gradual cooling of employment. It is worth emphasizing that the British currency can be highly sensitive to turmoil around Downing Street. Although the current change of prime minister is taking place under different circumstances, the history of financial markets, including the memorable collapse of the pound and the UK gilt market crisis following the announcement of fiscal plans in autumn 2022, shows that markets can swiftly and ruthlessly price in a lack of political predictability.

July 18, 2026

Iran Escalation: What to Watch and What to Expect

Diplomatic communications, media reports, and independent analyses indicate that an escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran is highly likely. Iran’s geography is one of its greatest, if not its greatest, strengths. But it also creates a number of vulnerabilities. The vulnerability with the largest implications for the conflict, and the one that offers the United States the best gain-to-risk ratio, is Kharg Island. This island, located about 30 kilometers off Iran’s coast, is its Achilles’ heel. Iran’s coastline is sparsely populated and poorly organized, but this is not a matter of choice, it is a matter of constraints. Iran’s coastal waters are too shallow for the mega tankers that form the backbone of the global economy to dock in Iranian ports. Under these conditions, Iran is forced to transport its oil to a port on an island where tankers can pick it up. The island is small, only 8 square kilometers, about 2.5 times the size of Central Park in New York City. Despite its size, it handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Realistically, if the United States wanted to make Iran’s leadership understand how unfavorable their military position is, it could seize the island. Even if U.S. losses are possible, it is not possible for Iran to repel a determined U.S. amphibious landing. This matters because oil exports are one of the last lifelines of the Iranian economy. While a wartime economy can function much longer than most suspect, it is important to remember: Iran is a desert; the balance of available food and water has been on the edge of a humanitarian crisis for years and is gradually worsening. Iran’s industry is dispersed, inefficient, and neglected; it requires inputs from abroad. Iran has been operating under a wartime economic regime not for a year or two, but in practice since the 1970s. A real threat still hangs over Iran: the loss of water and power infrastructure. Here, too, Iran is powerless against U.S. air power, and the destruction of already strained infrastructure in a desert country of 90 million citizens would have apocalyptic consequences. After such a move, the United States might no longer have anyone left to negotiate with, but that is a last resort. Leading indicators Despite the chaotic nature of decision-making in Washington and Tehran, there are a number of qualitative signals that suggest the likelihood of escalation is increasing.: It is worth remembering that the United States has not withdrawn a large portion of its military assets from the Persian Gulf region, despite ceasefire arrangements. There is a significant probability that both sides, at the moment of signing the agreement, were calculating a convenient moment to break it. On July 10, Trump officially called the campaign in Iran a war and asked Congress for support. This clearly points to the long-term nature of the conflict. U.S. attacks are no longer focused solely on IRGC facilities. There have also been many strikes on Iran’s regular military, the Artesh. This indicates that this is no longer an operation to change the government using Iranians, but a long-term campaign aimed at degrading the Islamic Republic’s ability to project power. Effects The math is, at least superficially, simple: About 25% of the supply of refined petroleum products came from the Persian Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz, which is currently blocked, handled about 75% of the total volume. The blockade is not airtight; depending on circumstances, about 5 to 15% of the pre-war volume gets through the strait. This implies a reduction in global oil supply of about 16 to 18%. That would correspond fairly well to the roughly $72 per barrel level from late June and early July, an increase of about 18% compared with around $60 per barrel in December 2025. The gradual release of reserves by (mainly) the United States and China would be enough to prevent an explosion in inflation, but the problem today is different. What the global economy lacks most is not crude oil but fuel. There are currently no gasoline and diesel inventories large enough to suppress price increases over the long term in the face of a supply shock, and worse, refining capacity in the United States and Europe is currently too limited. The undeniable proof is the so-called crack spread at the highest level in recorded history. What does all this mean? The price of oil already reflects significant, but not total, escalation. Gasoline prices do not reflect the tightness in the refined products market. The decline in inflation may prove temporary, and the next wave of increases may be delayed.

July 18, 2026

Trade of the day: U500

Facts The price is currently trading below both the 50-hour EMA and the 200-hour EMA . The index staged a strong rebound from around 7,473 after the U.S. market opened on Friday, July 17 . The RSI (14) on the hourly chart climbed from around 19 to above 40 between 10:00 and 16:15 . According to FactSet , in June investors expect S&P 500 companies to report 23.6% year-over-year earnings growth in Q2 2026 . Recommendation: Long US500 at market price SL: 7,473 TP: 7,600 Opinion The recent correction in technology stocks has weighed on investor sentiment, but upward earnings revisions and strong Big Tech results could support a rebound on Wall Street. So far, the earnings season has been broadly solid despite a few disappointments, including Netflix, with those misses more than offset by strong reports from companies such as BlackRock and Travelers. At the same time, the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict appears to be having a meaningful but much more limited impact on energy markets than during the spring escalation. July's preliminary University of Michigan survey surprised to the upside across almost all major categories. Consumer sentiment (54.4), current conditions (54.9), and consumer expectations (54.0) all exceeded market forecasts. The survey pointed to a second consecutive monthly improvement in confidence, largely driven by lower gasoline prices earlier in the month and improving expectations for both the economy and durable goods purchases. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations declined from 4.6% to 4.2% , while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3% , below market expectations, suggesting that inflation pressures are gradually easing. This combination of stronger consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations is supportive for equities, as it reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer. Improving consumer sentiment also strengthens the outlook for household spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP , supporting revenue expectations for S&P 500 companies. The main caveat is that most survey responses were collected before gasoline prices rebounded following the renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran, meaning the sustainability of the improvement will depend on developments in energy markets. It is also worth noting that the latest U.S. CPI and PPI reports both came in below market expectations, reinforcing the case for moderating inflation. Despite the recent pullback, US500 still has a realistic path back toward its record highs, particularly if the current correction in semiconductor stocks—which has already reached 30% or more in some names—begins to stabilize. We therefore recommend opening a long position on US500 , targeting 7,600 , which corresponds to the beginning of the latest bearish impulse and a key resistance level. A stop-loss at 7,473 is recommended, marking an important technical support zone defined by previous price reactions. Source: xStation 5

September 17, 2025

How to Manage Risk Without Losing Growth

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September 17, 2025

AI & Investing: What You Should Know

September 17, 2025

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