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Markets

October 16, 2026

Cocoa Prices Rebound as Asian and European Demand Surges, but Record Inventories Limit Gains

Today Markets Analysis Cocoa futures advanced on Thursday as stronger-than-expected grinding data from Asia and Europe revived demand expectations, while heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast disrupted harvesting and deliveries to ports. December New York cocoa rose 1.67%, while London cocoa gained 1.04%. The rally follows recent gains that pushed New York cocoa to a one-month high and London cocoa to a six-week high. However, the market faces conflicting fundamentals: early forecasts point to smaller West African crops in 2026/27, while rising exchange inventories and strong shipments from Ivory Coast indicate that supplies remain substantial. The next phase will depend on whether stronger processing demand and emerging crop risks can outweigh the availability of existing stocks. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionDecember 2026 New York cocoaUp 1.67%December 2026 London cocoaUp 1.04%Asian Q3 cocoa grindingsUp 29% year on yearEuropean Q3 cocoa grindingsUp 3.2% year on yearICE cocoa inventories3,588,033 bagsIvory Coast 2026/27 crop estimateApproximately 1.8 million tonnesGhana 2026/27 crop estimate450,000–650,000 tonnes, depending on forecastMain upside risksWeather disruption and smaller future cropsMain downside risksHigh inventories and uncertain underlying demand Demand Outlook: Grinding Data Beat Expectations Demand indicators provided the main positive catalyst for Thursday's rally. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported that third-quarter cocoa grindings increased 29% year on year to 233,767 tonnes, substantially exceeding expectations for 15% growth. The European Cocoa Association also reported an unexpected 3.2% increase in third-quarter grindings to 348,215 tonnes, compared with market expectations for a 3.9% decline. These figures suggest that processing activity was stronger than anticipated in two important cocoa-consuming regions. The surprise is significant because demand concerns have weighed on the market as elevated cocoa costs have pressured manufacturers. However, grindings measure the amount of cocoa processed, not final chocolate sales alone. One strong quarter does not establish a sustained demand recovery, and future results will need to confirm that processors can maintain activity at current cost levels. Supply Outlook: Heavy Rain Disrupts Ivory Coast Harvesting Heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, has hindered access to farms as the new harvest begins. Damaged bridges and flooded roads have slowed deliveries to ports and made harvesting more difficult. These disruptions could delay the movement of beans into export channels and support prices in the near term. The longer-term impact will depend on whether the weather affects total production and bean quality or primarily delays transportation. Early assessments of the 2026/27 crop have also raised concerns. Below-average cherelle formation and weak pod development have contributed to an estimated crop of approximately 1.8 million tonnes, down around 18% from roughly 2.2 million tonnes in 2025/26. The forecast remains provisional. Crop development, weather and disease pressure over the coming months will determine whether the projected reduction is realised. Ghana Adds to Future Supply Concerns Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, faces a potentially weaker 2026/27 crop. COCOBOD has warned that production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 tonnes, citing swollen shoot disease, aging farms and possible adverse weather linked to El Niño. A separate field-survey estimate put production at 650,000 tonnes, down from 750,000 tonnes in 2025/26. The difference between these forecasts highlights the uncertainty surrounding next season's output. Nevertheless, both point to risks from disease, farm productivity and weather. For the current season, Ghana's Cocoa Board reported that 750,000 tonnes had been harvested by August 26, up 25.6% from 597,000 tonnes in 2024/25. Strong current-season production therefore remains an important counterweight to concerns about the next crop. Bullish Sentiment Stronger Asian processing demand: Grindings rose 29% year on year, well above expectations, suggesting processing activity was stronger than anticipated. Unexpected European growth: A 3.2% increase in European grindings contrasts with expectations for a decline. Harvest disruption in Ivory Coast: Heavy rain, damaged bridges and poor road access could delay deliveries and affect crop quality. Smaller future crop forecasts: Early assessments indicate weaker Ivory Coast production, while Ghana faces disease and weather-related risks. El Niño uncertainty: Potentially warmer and drier conditions in West Africa could reduce soil moisture and stress cocoa trees, although the eventual impact remains uncertain. Bearish Sentiment Rising ICE inventories: Exchange stocks reached 3,588,033 bags, the highest level in approximately 2.25 years, indicating substantial available supply. Strong Ivory Coast shipments: Cumulative shipments reached 2.18 million tonnes in the reported international marketing-year period, up 19.8% year on year. Higher recent production: Ivory Coast reported a 30% increase in harvested output for the season ending June 2026, to 2.06 million tonnes. Demand affordability pressures: Processor Cargill reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa, suggesting difficulty passing elevated costs on to customers. Uncertain future crop estimates: Forecasts for Ghana differ considerably, while weather-related risks have not yet translated into confirmed production losses. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The near-term outlook has improved following the strong grinding data and harvesting disruption in Ivory Coast. Further gains are possible if heavy rainfall continues to delay deliveries or if crop assessments confirm significant losses for 2026/27. However, rising inventories remain a major obstacle to a sustained rally. If shipments remain strong and stock levels continue to increase, prices could struggle to maintain their recent advance despite positive demand surprises. Traders should monitor subsequent grinding reports, West African port arrivals, crop-development assessments and ICE inventory changes. These indicators will help establish whether the market is moving towards a genuine supply deficit or simply experiencing a temporary price recovery. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cocoa is being pulled in two directions. Better-than-expected processing data and risks to future West African production support prices, while high inventories and strong recent shipments indicate that supply remains available. The market could remain volatile as traders reassess the balance between current stocks and the next crop. A sustained bullish trend would require evidence that demand is holding up and that projected production reductions are becoming more likely. The key question is whether next season's potential crop losses will be large enough to absorb existing inventories and offset the strong supply recorded during the current marketing year. Currency Hedger View Chocolate manufacturers, cocoa importers and food businesses face both commodity-price and foreign-exchange exposure. A change in cocoa futures can alter procurement costs, while movements in the US dollar or other payment currencies can further affect the final cost of imported beans and cocoa products. Businesses should assess future purchase commitments, payment timing and currency exposure rather than assuming that a recent cocoa rally will continue. Appropriate currency hedging can help manage exchange-rate uncertainty, although it does not eliminate the underlying commodity-price risk. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Cocoa prices are finding support from stronger Asian and European grinding data, heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast and concerns about West African production in 2026/27. Yet the market is not facing an unequivocal shortage: ICE inventories are rising, and recent Ivory Coast shipments and production have been strong. The next sustained move will depend on whether demand continues to surprise positively and whether weather and disease materially reduce future output. Until those risks translate into tighter physical availability, high inventories remain a significant limit on further gains. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Cocoa markets are volatile and can respond sharply to weather, crop estimates, inventories and changes in demand. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 16, 2026

Wheat Prices Retreat as Traders Await US Export Sales and Assess European Supply

Today Markets Analysis US wheat futures closed lower on Thursday after surrendering early gains, as traders looked ahead to fresh export sales data to determine whether lower prices are attracting stronger international demand. Chicago soft red winter wheat, Kansas City hard red winter wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat all finished lower. The market now faces a key test: whether improved price competitiveness can translate into stronger US export business while global supply remains substantial. The European Union's 2026 wheat production estimate was unchanged at 126.1 million metric tonnes, while expectations of lower planted acreage in 2027 could become a longer-term supportive factor if reduced planting translates into lower output. Market Snapshot ContractClosing PriceDaily ChangeDecember 2026 CBOT wheat$6.70/bushel-3.25 centsMarch 2027 CBOT wheat$6.8425/bushel-2.25 centsDecember 2026 KCBT wheat$7.13/bushel-2 centsMarch 2027 KCBT wheat$7.2475/bushel-2 centsDecember 2026 MIAX wheat$6.86/bushel-4 centsMarch 2027 MIAX wheat$7.045/bushel-4.75 cents US Export Demand Becomes the Immediate Focus The USDA's Export Sales report is due Friday morning following the Monday holiday. Traders will be watching closely to see whether the recent decline in US wheat prices has attracted additional overseas buyers. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect wheat sales of between 300,000 and 600,000 metric tonnes for the week ending October 8. Sales within or above that range could suggest that lower prices are improving US competitiveness. A result below expectations would raise concerns that cheaper wheat is failing to generate sufficient additional demand. Export sales will therefore be an important near-term catalyst, particularly as traders assess whether the market has reached a price level capable of stimulating stronger international purchasing. European Supply: Stable Production, Potentially Lower Acreage The European Union's wheat crop estimate remained unchanged at 126.1 million metric tonnes this month. The outlook for 2027 planting is less supportive of future supply, with acreage expected to decline by nearly 2% from the 52.9 million acres planted in 2026. Reduced acreage could limit future production if yields and other conditions remain unchanged. However, acreage forecasts alone do not determine the size of the next crop: favourable weather and higher yields could offset some of the reduction. For now, stable EU production means European supply is not providing an immediate bullish catalyst. The more significant question is whether lower planting translates into tighter availability in the next crop year. Bullish Sentiment Potentially stronger export sales: Lower US prices may encourage overseas buyers to increase purchases. Improved price competitiveness: Further declines could make American wheat more attractive against competing origins, depending on freight costs and exchange rates. Lower EU acreage outlook: A projected reduction in 2027 planting could constrain future production if yields do not compensate. Potential short-covering: Stronger-than-expected export data could prompt traders to reassess bearish positioning and support a recovery. Bearish Sentiment Weak price momentum: All three major US wheat futures categories finished lower on Thursday. Substantial European production: The EU's estimated 126.1 million-tonne crop remains a significant source of supply. Uncertain export response: Lower prices will not necessarily produce stronger sales if competing exporters remain attractive or global demand is subdued. Future acreage is not yet production: The expected reduction in EU planting may have limited immediate price impact while current supplies remain available. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next directional signal is likely to come from the USDA's export sales report. Sales at or above the expected range of 300,000–600,000 metric tonnes could provide support by demonstrating that lower prices are attracting demand. A disappointing result could leave wheat vulnerable to further losses as traders focus on available global supplies. Beyond the immediate report, the market will monitor competing exporters, international tenders and changes in production expectations. The EU's lower projected acreage may support prices further ahead, but the immediate outlook depends more heavily on actual export demand and the current supply balance. Demand Outlook The recent decline in US wheat prices creates an opportunity to improve export competitiveness, but buyers will compare delivered prices across origins rather than futures alone. Freight rates, currency movements, quality requirements and shipment timing will all influence purchasing decisions. If US wheat becomes more competitive on a delivered basis, export sales could improve and help stabilise futures. If international demand remains weak, lower prices may simply reflect the market adjusting to abundant supply rather than setting the stage for a sustained recovery. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term bias remains cautious to bearish following Thursday's broad-based losses. Friday's export sales report could alter that outlook, particularly if demand exceeds expectations. Stronger sales would provide evidence that lower prices are working to attract buyers. Weak sales would reinforce concerns that supply remains comfortable and demand is insufficient to absorb available wheat. The key question is whether lower US prices can generate enough new export demand to shift the market away from supply-driven weakness. Currency Hedger View Wheat importers, food manufacturers and agricultural traders should assess both commodity prices and exchange-rate movements when planning future purchases. A decline in US wheat futures may not translate into an equivalent reduction in local procurement costs if the US dollar strengthens against the buyer's currency. Businesses with dollar-denominated grain purchases should review payment schedules, budget sensitivity and appropriate currency hedging arrangements to reduce uncertainty around future costs. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Wheat prices remain under pressure as traders wait for evidence that lower US prices are stimulating international demand. Stable European production adds to the existing supply picture, while the prospect of lower EU acreage offers only a potential longer-term source of support. A stronger export sales report could help stabilise prices, but a sustained recovery will require continued demand rather than a single positive reading. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Agricultural commodity markets are volatile and can respond sharply to weather, export demand, crop estimates and global supply conditions. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 16, 2026

Coffee Prices Slide as Record Supply Outlook and Rising Robusta Inventories Weigh on Market

Today Markets Analysis Coffee prices fell sharply on Thursday as improving growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam reinforced expectations of abundant global supplies. December arabica futures declined 1.09% to close at a loss of 3.25 cents, while November robusta futures dropped 3.10%, reaching a two-week low. The market is increasingly focused on the prospect of a larger 2026/27 crop, with favourable rainfall supporting production potential in Brazil and improved soil moisture aiding coffee development in Vietnam. Rising robusta inventories and stronger export volumes are adding to the pressure. However, the outlook is not uniformly bearish. The risk of El Niño-related weather disruption, declining Colombian production and historically low arabica inventories could limit further losses if supply expectations deteriorate. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionDecember 2026 arabicaDown 3.25 cents, or 1.09%November 2026 robustaDown 108 points, or 3.10%ICE robusta inventories5,603 lots, a 10.75-month highICE arabica inventoriesPreviously reached a 27-year low of 217,646 bagsBrazil 2026 coffee production forecast67.6 million bagsGlobal 2026/27 production forecast189.7 million bagsGlobal 2025/26 production estimate183.6 million bagsGlobal 2025/26 surplus estimate3 million bags Supply Outlook: Brazil and Vietnam Increase Bearish Pressure Brazil remains the central influence on the arabica market. Above-normal rainfall during the critical flowering period could improve prospects for the 2026/27 harvest, easing concerns about future availability. Somar Meteorologia reported 33.3 millimetres of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ended October 4, equivalent to 104% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil's main arabica-producing region, making rainfall and flowering conditions particularly important for the next crop. Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2026 production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million. Arabica production is forecast to rise 34.8% year on year to 48.21 million bags, while robusta output is expected to fall 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. In Vietnam, recent rainfall has improved soil moisture in the Central Highlands, supporting cherry development. Vietnam's 2025/26 production is projected to rise 6% year on year to 1.76 million tonnes, or approximately 29.4 million bags. If these favourable conditions persist, larger supplies from the two major producing countries could weigh on prices through the next crop cycle. Export Growth Reinforces Supply Concerns Brazil's September coffee exports increased by more than 20% year on year to 236,000 tonnes, according to the supplied trade data. Vietnam's September exports rose 53% year on year to 124,000 tonnes, while exports for January to September increased 16.2% to 1.45 million tonnes. Vietnam's full-year 2025 exports also increased 17.5% to 1.58 million tonnes. These figures suggest that substantial volumes are reaching international buyers. Continued export growth could reinforce expectations of greater availability, particularly for robusta. However, export volumes do not by themselves establish the size of future harvests. Prices will also depend on the pace of consumption, weather developments and the amount of coffee held in producing and consuming countries. Bullish Sentiment El Niño weather risk: Potential delays to rainfall during Brazil's flowering period could damage the 2026/27 crop and reverse current expectations of favourable production. Low arabica inventories: ICE arabica stocks previously fell to 217,646 bags, their lowest level in 27 years, leaving the market sensitive to supply disruptions. Falling Colombian output: Colombia's 2025/26 production declined 15% year on year to 12.65 million bags, while exports fell 12% to 11.78 million bags. Weather volatility: Floods, droughts and temperature fluctuations across South America and Asia could affect yields if El Niño conditions intensify. Arabica-specific tightness: Even if global output increases, regional and variety-specific shortages could support arabica prices. Bearish Sentiment Record global production outlook: The USDA projects 2026/27 global coffee output at 189.7 million bags, up 6% year on year. Projected global surplus: The International Coffee Organization estimated a 3-million-bag surplus for 2025/26, with production at 183.6 million bags and consumption at 180.6 million. Improving Brazilian conditions: Above-normal rainfall could support flowering and increase the next arabica crop. Rising robusta inventories: ICE robusta stocks climbed to 5,603 lots, their highest level in approximately 10.75 months. Strong exports: Increased shipments from Brazil and Vietnam are adding to the perception of abundant available supplies. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The near-term bias remains bearish while favourable growing conditions, rising robusta inventories and strong exports reinforce expectations of greater supply. Further losses are possible if Brazilian flowering progresses well, Vietnam's harvest outlook improves and inventories continue to rise. However, a shift towards dry conditions in Brazil or evidence of significant crop damage could trigger a rapid recovery. Arabica and robusta may also diverge. Arabica retains a potentially stronger supply-risk premium because of historically low exchange inventories and falling Colombian output, while robusta faces more immediate pressure from rising stocks and stronger Vietnamese exports. The key issue is whether projected production gains become actual harvest volumes without being offset by adverse weather or stronger consumption. Demand Outlook: A Larger Crop Needs Stronger Consumption The International Coffee Organization's estimate of a 3-million-bag surplus points to a market in which production has exceeded consumption. The USDA's forecast of rising output and ending stocks reinforces that concern. If consumption remains subdued while harvests expand, inventories could rebuild and constrain prices. Conversely, stronger demand or unexpected production losses could absorb the surplus more quickly than currently anticipated. The market will need evidence that consumption is keeping pace with rising availability before a sustained recovery becomes more convincing. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coffee prices remain vulnerable to further declines while the market anticipates a larger global crop. Brazil's flowering conditions, Vietnam's export performance and robusta inventory data will be particularly important in determining whether the current selling pressure continues. The downside is not without limits. El Niño-related weather risks, weak Colombian output and low arabica stocks could create sharp reversals if the supply outlook deteriorates. The central question is whether favourable weather will deliver the record harvest the market is pricing in, or whether weather disruption will undermine production before the next crop reaches the market. Currency Hedger View Coffee importers, roasters and international traders face a combination of commodity-price and foreign-exchange risks. Lower futures prices may reduce procurement costs, but movements in the US dollar and the buyer's domestic currency can offset some of the benefit. Businesses purchasing coffee in US dollars should assess their expected volumes, payment dates and exchange-rate exposure. Appropriate currency hedging can help manage the cost of future payments, although it does not eliminate coffee-price risk. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Coffee is facing a growing supply challenge as favourable weather in Brazil and Vietnam, stronger exports and rising robusta inventories weigh on prices. The global production outlook points towards greater availability, while consumption forecasts suggest the market may struggle to absorb the additional crop. However, the bearish outlook depends on favourable growing conditions continuing. El Niño-related disruption, low arabica inventories and reduced Colombian production remain important counterweights. The next sustained move will depend on whether crop forecasts translate into actual production and whether weather risks begin to threaten the expected surplus. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Coffee futures are volatile and can respond sharply to weather, inventories, export data and changes in global demand. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 16, 2026

Live Cattle and Feeder Futures Rally as Tight US Supplies Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis US live cattle futures advanced across the board on Thursday, while feeder cattle contracts led the rally with gains of up to $4.40. Limited slaughter numbers, firm cash cattle bids and a higher feeder cattle index are supporting the market, although mixed wholesale beef prices indicate that demand conditions remain uneven. The latest figures point to continued tightness in US cattle supplies. Federally inspected slaughter is running below both the previous week and the corresponding period last year, limiting the number of cattle reaching processors. The next challenge for prices will be whether firm cash markets can maintain momentum while wholesale beef values remain mixed. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionOctober 2026 live cattle$225.950, up $2.050December 2026 live cattle$227.250, up $2.125February 2027 live cattle$229.625, up $2.200October 2026 feeder cattle$343.375, up $2.425November 2026 feeder cattle$341.950, up $3.500January 2027 feeder cattle$337.900, up $4.300CME Feeder Cattle Index$342.64, up $1.22Week-to-date cattle slaughter430,000 headSlaughter versus same week last yearDown 34,307 head Supply Outlook: Lower Slaughter Supports Cattle Values USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 104,000 head on Thursday, bringing the week-to-date total to 430,000 head. That total is 2,000 head below the previous week and 34,307 head below the same week last year. Reduced slaughter numbers indicate that fewer cattle are moving through the processing system. With supplies constrained, feedlots and packers may face greater competition for available animals, helping support cash cattle prices and futures. The trend will remain important in the coming sessions. If slaughter continues to run below year-earlier levels, cattle availability could remain tight. However, lower processing volumes can also reflect weaker packer margins or operational decisions, so the figures need to be assessed alongside beef demand and processing profitability. Cash Cattle Market: Firm Bids but Limited Trading USDA reported a small number of dressed northern cattle sales at $345–355. At the Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange online auction, bids of $224–226 were posted on 898 of the 2,596 head offered, but no cattle were sold. Other bids across the country were reported around $226. The absence of auction sales means the bids should not be treated as confirmed transaction prices. Nevertheless, the reported levels indicate that buyers are still bidding for available cattle, while the limited volume of completed trading leaves the market waiting for clearer price discovery. There have also been no deliveries against October live cattle futures. That is worth monitoring as the contract approaches delivery, although the absence of deliveries alone does not establish that a shortage is developing. Feeder Cattle Lead the Rally Feeder cattle futures were the strongest part of the market, gaining between $2.42 and $4.40 across contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rose another $1.22 on October 14 to $342.64. Higher feeder prices reflect the value placed on animals entering feedlots, where buyers must weigh the cost of cattle against expected finished-cattle prices, feed expenses and future margins. The rally suggests that demand for replacement cattle remains firm despite the elevated cost of acquiring animals. However, high feeder prices can compress feedlot margins if finished cattle and beef prices fail to keep pace. Bullish Sentiment Reduced slaughter volumes: Weekly slaughter is materially below the same period last year, reinforcing concerns about limited cattle availability. Firm cash bids: Reported bids around $224–226 and northern dressed sales at $345–355 point to continued competition for cattle. Higher feeder index: The increase to $342.64 supports the positive trend in feeder cattle values. Broad futures gains: Live cattle and feeder contracts advanced across the board, indicating widespread buying interest. Tight supply outlook: Continued lower slaughter could support prices if beef demand remains sufficient. Bearish Sentiment Mixed boxed beef prices: Choice values increased, but Select prices fell sharply, showing uneven performance across beef grades. High feeder costs: Expensive replacement cattle can reduce feedlot profitability if finished-cattle prices do not rise enough. Unconfirmed auction bids: The Fed Cattle Exchange recorded no sales, limiting evidence of completed transactions at the reported bid levels. Demand uncertainty: Lower slaughter may reflect processing economics as well as cattle availability; weaker consumer demand could limit packers’ willingness to pay more. Wholesale price volatility: Further declines in beef values could pressure packer margins and eventually weigh on cash cattle bids. Beef Market Outlook: Choice Strength Offsets Select Weakness The Thursday afternoon boxed beef report showed Choice prices rising by $2.52 to $373.98, while Select values fell by $5.85 to $352.62. The reported Choice-Select spread was $21.36. The divergence suggests that demand is not moving uniformly across beef grades. Stronger Choice values provide support for higher-quality cuts, but falling Select prices indicate weakness elsewhere in the wholesale market. The sustainability of cattle futures gains will depend partly on whether wholesale beef prices can absorb higher live-cattle costs. If boxed beef values strengthen broadly, packers may be better positioned to maintain cash bids. If prices weaken, margins could come under pressure. Price Outlook: What Traders Are Watching The immediate outlook remains constructive while futures momentum is positive, slaughter numbers are low and cash cattle bids remain firm. A continuation of reduced slaughter and stronger wholesale beef values could support further gains across live and feeder cattle contracts. Conversely, weaker beef demand, deteriorating packer margins or a failure of cash bids to translate into completed sales could trigger a pullback. Traders should monitor weekly slaughter totals, confirmed cash transactions, boxed beef prices and the feeder cattle index. These indicators will help establish whether the rally is being supported by physical-market fundamentals or primarily by futures positioning. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The balance of evidence favours a supportive cattle market, particularly for feeder contracts, but the outlook is not without risks. Lower slaughter and firm bids suggest limited availability, while mixed wholesale beef prices create uncertainty over how much more packers can pay. If supply remains tight and beef values hold, futures could extend their advance. If wholesale prices weaken or cash trading fails to confirm current bids, the market may struggle to maintain its momentum. The key question is whether tight cattle supplies can continue to support prices without further deterioration in beef demand and processing margins. Currency Hedger View For livestock producers, feedlot operators and meat processors involved in international trade, cattle prices are only one part of the margin equation. Feed costs, freight, imported inputs and exchange-rate movements can all influence profitability. Businesses with payments or receipts in US dollars should assess their currency exposure alongside livestock-price risk. Appropriate currency hedging can help reduce uncertainty around international payments, although it does not eliminate commodity or operating risks. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Live and feeder cattle futures are gaining support from lower US slaughter numbers, firm cash bids and a rising feeder cattle index. The strongest price performance is in feeder contracts, but high replacement costs and mixed wholesale beef values remain important risks. Further gains will depend on continued supply tightness and the ability of beef prices to support the cost of cattle. The next confirmation should come from completed cash transactions, slaughter data and wholesale price performance. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Livestock futures are volatile and can be affected by supply, demand, feed costs and market positioning. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 16, 2026

Copper Rebounds Towards $6.60 as Weaker Dollar and Chile Mine Disruptions Tighten Supply

Today Markets Analysis Copper futures climbed towards $6.60 per pound on Friday, ending a three-session losing streak as a weaker US dollar and disruptions at major Chilean mines supported prices. The market is balancing near-term uncertainty over artificial intelligence investment against longer-term demand from data centres, semiconductor manufacturing and battery energy storage. The outlook remains constructive if mining disruptions persist and industrial demand holds up. However, concerns that the AI capital expenditure boom could slow remain a significant risk, given the role of technology investment in supporting economic activity and financial markets. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionCopper futuresApproaching $6.60/lbRecent price actionRebound after three losing sessionsCurrency driverWeaker US dollarMain supply risksStrikes and adverse weather in ChileKey affected operationsEscondida, Centinela and El TenienteStructural demand driversData centres, semiconductors and energy storageMain downside riskSlower AI investment and weaker industrial demand Supply Outlook: Chilean Disruptions Support Prices Chile, the world's largest copper producer, is facing operational disruptions that could tighten near-term supply. Labour strikes have affected BHP Group's Escondida mine and Antofagasta's Centinela operation, while adverse weather has hampered open-pit operations at Codelco's El Teniente mine. These disruptions matter because copper supply cannot be increased quickly when major mines experience interruptions. If strikes continue or weather conditions worsen, production losses could reduce available material and support prices. However, the extent of the impact will depend on the duration of disruptions, the scale of lost output and whether affected operations return to normal. Temporary interruptions may have a limited lasting effect if production recovers quickly. The US Dollar Provides Additional Support Copper is priced internationally in US dollars, making exchange-rate movements an important influence on demand and investor positioning. A weaker dollar reduces the cost of dollar-denominated copper for buyers using other currencies, potentially supporting purchasing activity. It can also improve sentiment across commodity markets. The dollar's recent weakness reflects concerns about a possible slowdown in AI-related capital expenditure, which has been an important source of investment and market optimism. If those concerns deepen, copper could face conflicting forces: a weaker dollar may provide support, while slower investment and economic activity could undermine demand. Bullish Sentiment Mining disruptions: Strikes at Escondida and Centinela, alongside weather-related difficulties at El Teniente, could tighten near-term supply. Weaker US dollar: Currency movements are helping support dollar-priced commodities. Data-centre expansion: AI infrastructure requires significant investment in electrical systems, power distribution and related equipment, supporting longer-term copper demand. Semiconductor manufacturing: Continued investment in chip production and associated infrastructure contributes to copper-intensive construction and electrical demand. Battery energy storage: Expanding storage capacity and electricity infrastructure provide additional sources of structural demand. Bearish Sentiment AI investment slowdown: Any sustained reduction in data-centre and technology capital expenditure could weaken an important source of expected demand. Industrial demand uncertainty: Slower global economic activity could reduce copper consumption across construction, manufacturing and infrastructure. Recovery in Chilean production: A return to normal operations could ease immediate supply concerns. Dollar rebound: Stronger US economic data or changing Federal Reserve expectations could strengthen the dollar and weigh on commodity prices. Profit-taking: The rebound follows three consecutive losing sessions, leaving prices vulnerable if buyers fail to maintain momentum. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Copper's near-term direction will depend on whether supply disruptions and dollar weakness can offset concerns about future demand. A sustained move towards and above $6.60 per pound would strengthen the recovery if Chilean mining interruptions continue and investment in data centres and energy infrastructure remains robust. Conversely, easing operational disruptions or evidence of a broader slowdown in AI spending could bring renewed selling pressure. Traders should monitor mine production updates, the US dollar, industrial activity and evidence of actual copper consumption. Long-term demand narratives can support sentiment, but sustained price gains ultimately require physical demand to absorb available supply. Demand Outlook: AI and Electrification Remain Important Copper is essential to electrical wiring, power distribution, data-centre infrastructure and many energy-storage systems. Continued investment in these areas offers a structural source of demand. However, the scale and timing of future consumption remain uncertain. Announced investment plans do not always translate immediately into completed projects or copper purchases, and slower project development could delay demand. The market must also account for traditional sources of consumption, including construction, manufacturing and electricity infrastructure. Strength across these sectors would provide a broader demand base than reliance on AI-related investment alone. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The outlook is cautiously constructive while the dollar remains weak and disruptions at major Chilean mines threaten near-term supply. The rebound towards $6.60 indicates that buyers are returning after recent losses, but the move requires confirmation. If mining disruptions persist and industrial demand remains resilient, prices could extend their recovery. If AI investment expectations deteriorate or supply interruptions ease, copper could struggle to maintain its gains. The central question is whether physical supply tightness and structural electrification demand can outweigh concerns about a possible slowdown in technology investment. Currency Hedger View Copper buyers, manufacturers and industrial businesses should consider the combined effect of commodity prices and currency movements on procurement costs. A weaker US dollar may support copper prices even as it reduces the exchange-rate cost for some non-US buyers, depending on their domestic currency. Businesses with dollar-denominated copper purchases should stress-test budgets against further price increases and exchange-rate volatility. Appropriate currency hedging may help manage payment uncertainty, although it does not eliminate the underlying commodity-price risk. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Copper is receiving support from a weaker dollar and supply disruptions in Chile, while longer-term demand expectations remain linked to electrification, data centres and semiconductor infrastructure. The recovery could continue if physical supply tightens and investment demand holds up. However, the market remains exposed to a slowdown in AI-related capital expenditure and broader industrial activity. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity markets are volatile, and prices can change sharply in response to supply disruptions, currency movements and shifts in economic demand. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 16, 2026

Palm Oil Surges Above MYR 4,750 as Indonesian Supply Risks Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis Malaysian palm oil futures have surged more than 3% to above MYR 4,750 per tonne, reaching a three-week high as tighter future supply expectations and stronger export demand lift the market. Firmer edible oil prices in China and Chicago have added momentum, while robust buying from India is providing further support. The rally is gaining strength despite record-high Malaysian inventories, which remain a significant constraint on the market. The balance for the coming sessions will depend on whether stronger exports and Indonesia’s projected production decline can offset the availability of existing stocks. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionMalaysian palm oil futuresAbove MYR 4,750/tonneWeekly performanceUp approximately 3.9%Recent price movementMore than 3% higherIndonesian 2027 output forecast51.7 million tonnesIndonesian 2026 output forecast53.7 million tonnesIndonesian export outlookNearly 15% annual decline projectedMalaysian shipments, Oct. 1–10Up 33.5%–37.7% from September's comparable periodMain upside driversSupply concerns and stronger export demandMain downside riskRecord-high Malaysian inventories Supply Outlook: Indonesia Could Tighten the Market Indonesia’s palm oil industry is becoming a major focus for longer-term supply expectations. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association projects production falling to 51.7 million tonnes in 2027 from 53.7 million tonnes in 2026. That would represent a decline of approximately 2 million tonnes. Exports are also projected to fall by nearly 15% year on year as domestic biodiesel and food consumption absorb a greater share of available output. If these forecasts materialise, less Indonesian palm oil could be available to international buyers. This would increase the importance of Malaysian production and export performance in determining global prices. However, the projected decline is a forward-looking estimate rather than a confirmed outcome. Actual production, domestic consumption and export volumes will determine how much supply reaches the international market. Export Demand Strengthens Cargo surveyors reported Malaysian palm oil shipments rising between 33.5% and 37.7% during October 1–10 compared with the corresponding period in September. The increase points to stronger near-term demand, although the comparison with September should be considered alongside seasonal patterns and subsequent shipment data. India is providing additional support through robust festival-related buying. As the world’s largest palm oil importer, Indian purchasing activity can have a meaningful influence on export demand and international prices. If strong shipments continue through the remainder of October, the market could become more confident that demand is absorbing available supply. Bullish Sentiment Indonesian production outlook: Forecast lower output in 2027 could tighten export availability if realised. Potential export reduction: A projected decline of nearly 15% in Indonesian exports could shift demand towards alternative suppliers. Stronger Malaysian shipments: The reported increase in early-October exports signals improved near-term buying. Indian demand: Festival-related purchases from a major importing market are supporting consumption. Firmer competing oils: Gains in edible oils traded in China and Chicago are improving broader market sentiment. Bearish Sentiment Record-high Malaysian inventories: Large existing stocks could absorb stronger demand and limit further price increases. China growth uncertainty: Upcoming third-quarter GDP data could influence expectations for demand from a major palm oil consumer. Forecast uncertainty: Indonesia’s projected production and export declines may not fully materialise. Price volatility: A sharp rally can encourage profit-taking, particularly if export momentum begins to slow. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Palm oil’s near-term direction will depend on whether strong export demand can offset high inventories and sustain the latest rally. A continued move above MYR 4,750 per tonne would strengthen the bullish outlook if shipment data remain firm and the market gains confidence in tighter future Indonesian supply. Conversely, disappointing exports or evidence that Malaysian inventories remain elevated could trigger a pullback. Traders should focus on actual export performance, Malaysian stock estimates, Indonesian production developments and the direction of competing edible oils rather than relying on the supply forecast alone. Demand Outlook: India and China Remain Key India’s festival buying is currently providing support, but the sustainability of demand will matter more than a short-term increase in purchases. China presents another important test. As a major palm oil consumer, its economic performance and import demand can influence regional edible oil prices. Third-quarter GDP data due next week could alter expectations for consumption and broader commodity demand. If Chinese activity and import demand remain resilient, the rally could gain further support. A weaker growth signal could limit gains, particularly while Malaysian inventories remain high. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The short-term bias is constructive following the sharp price increase and stronger export figures. Longer-term supply concerns also offer support, particularly if Indonesia’s projected reduction in output translates into lower export availability. However, record-high Malaysian inventories remain the central obstacle to a sustained rally. Prices will need continued demand strength and evidence of tighter supply to justify further gains. The key question is whether stronger exports can begin to draw down existing stocks before expectations of lower Indonesian production become a reality. Currency Hedger View Palm oil importers, food manufacturers and trading businesses should account for both commodity-price movements and exchange-rate exposure. Higher palm oil prices can increase procurement costs, while movements in the Malaysian ringgit, US dollar or a buyer’s domestic currency can further change the final cost. Businesses with planned purchases should stress-test budgets against additional price increases and assess whether appropriate currency hedging could reduce uncertainty around future payments. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Palm oil has regained upward momentum as stronger shipments, Indian demand and expectations of lower Indonesian output support prices. The outlook for the coming sessions remains positive if export demand continues to improve. However, the market is not yet free of supply pressure. Record-high Malaysian inventories could cap gains until stronger shipments translate into a sustained reduction in stocks. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity prices are volatile, and forecasts are uncertain. Readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Energies

October 16, 2026

European Gas Prices Near Multi-Year High as Low Storage Raises Winter Supply Risks

Today Markets Analysis European natural gas prices eased to €85.50 per megawatt-hour, but remain close to a multi-year high as the market confronts a difficult supply outlook ahead of the heating season. EU gas storage is only 74.1% full, leaving Europe more exposed to colder weather, shipping disruption and competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The immediate concern is whether Europe can secure enough additional gas before winter demand increases. Continued disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced Middle Eastern supplies, intensifying competition between European and Asian buyers for available LNG cargoes. Prices may ease if additional supplies arrive and weather remains mild. However, a colder winter combined with prolonged shipping disruption could trigger another sharp increase. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionEuropean natural gas€85.50/MWhPrice trendNear a multi-year highEU storage capacity filled74.1%Main seasonal riskWinter heating demandSupply pressureDisrupted shipping and reduced Middle Eastern flowsLNG competitionEurope versus AsiaMain upside triggerColder weather or prolonged disruption Supply Outlook: Europe Faces a Difficult Replenishment Season European gas storage is materially below typical levels for this point in the year, according to the supplied figures. Some countries are also struggling to meet minimum storage requirements, increasing the pressure to secure additional supplies. Replenishing inventories has become more difficult as shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz constrains access to some Middle Eastern supplies. These flows are reported to be around 80% lower than a year earlier. Europe can source gas from multiple suppliers, but alternative cargoes are not unlimited. Redirecting LNG shipments takes time, and buyers must compete on price with Asian importers. If several markets seek additional cargoes simultaneously, the cost of securing supply could rise quickly. Winter Demand Could Tighten the Market The next major test will come as temperatures fall and heating demand increases. A mild start to winter would give Europe more time to replenish storage and could reduce immediate pressure on prices. A colder-than-expected season would increase withdrawals, potentially forcing buyers to compete more aggressively for available LNG. The timing of supply deliveries will be just as important as total volumes. Gas arriving after demand has already surged may offer less protection against short-term price spikes. Bullish Sentiment Below-normal storage: Storage at 74.1% leaves Europe with less of a buffer against a cold winter than it would have with fuller inventories. Shipping disruption: Continued constraints through the Strait of Hormuz could restrict supply and increase transport costs. Reduced Middle Eastern flows: Supplies around 80% below year-earlier levels increase the pressure to secure alternatives. Competition for LNG: Strong demand from Asia could force European buyers to offer higher prices to attract cargoes. Weather risk: A colder winter could accelerate storage withdrawals and trigger another price spike. Bearish Sentiment Additional LNG deliveries: Increased arrivals from alternative suppliers could ease the European supply balance. Milder weather: Lower heating demand would reduce withdrawals and give storage operators more time to replenish inventories. Supply recovery: A sustained improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the immediate scarcity premium. Demand reduction: Persistently high prices may encourage industrial users and households to reduce consumption, limiting further price increases. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching European gas prices remain vulnerable to sudden upward moves while storage is relatively low and shipping disruption persists. A colder weather outlook, further delays to LNG deliveries or continued reductions in Middle Eastern supplies could push prices higher. Conversely, milder temperatures, stronger alternative supply and improving shipping conditions could allow prices to retreat. The market’s direction will depend on the balance between actual LNG arrivals and the rate at which Europe consumes stored gas. Storage levels alone do not determine the outcome, but they influence how much disruption the market can absorb. Demand Outlook: Europe and Asia Compete for Cargoes Europe and Asia are the two largest LNG-importing regions, and both may need additional supplies as temperatures fall. If Asian demand strengthens at the same time as European storage replenishment accelerates, competition for flexible LNG cargoes could intensify. European buyers may then face higher prices even if global production remains broadly stable. High gas prices also carry wider economic consequences. Energy-intensive industries face increased operating costs, while households and governments may come under pressure if heating bills rise. Sustained price increases could therefore weaken industrial activity and reinforce pressure on European economic growth. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term risk remains tilted towards further volatility and potential price spikes. Storage levels, weather forecasts, LNG arrivals and shipping developments will determine whether prices can stabilise or move higher. A colder winter combined with prolonged disruption would create the most difficult scenario for Europe. If supply routes recover and temperatures remain moderate, prices could ease as the immediate scarcity premium declines. Europe’s key challenge is to secure sufficient gas before winter demand peaks. With storage at 74.1%, the margin for absorbing a major supply shock is limited. Currency Hedger View Higher European gas prices can increase costs for manufacturers, utilities and other energy-intensive businesses. They can also influence inflation, industrial competitiveness and the eurozone’s economic outlook. Companies purchasing energy in foreign currencies face an additional risk: exchange-rate movements can magnify or offset changes in the underlying commodity price. Businesses should stress-test energy budgets against higher gas prices and review relevant currency exposures before winter demand increases. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View European gas prices remain elevated because the market is entering the heating season with relatively low storage and a more uncertain supply outlook. Competition for LNG and continued shipping disruption leave the region exposed to further price increases. A milder winter and improved supply flows could relieve pressure, but a cold winter combined with prolonged disruption would create a serious upside risk for prices and energy costs across Europe. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Energy markets are volatile, and prices can change sharply in response to weather, supply disruptions and geopolitical developments. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 16, 2026

Gold Holds Near $4,150 as Geopolitical Risks and Equity Sell-Off Support Safe-Haven Demand

Today Markets Analysis Gold held around $4,150 per ounce on Friday after rebounding in the previous session, as falling equity markets and heightened geopolitical risks encouraged investors to seek protection in precious metals and government bonds. The decline in bond yields has eased pressure on gold, which does not pay interest. However, the outlook remains complicated by expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening following stronger-than-expected US economic data. Gold is benefiting from uncertainty, but higher interest-rate expectations could limit its recovery. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionGold priceAround $4,150 per ounceRecent price actionRebounded after a sell-offSafe-haven demandSupported by equity market weaknessBond yieldsFalling sharplyFed policy outlookMarkets expect rates to remain unchanged this monthDecember rate hike probabilityApproximately 92%, according to supplied market pricingMain upside risksGeopolitical escalation and lower yieldsMain downside risksHigher rate expectations and renewed dollar strength What Is Driving Gold? The recent equity sell-off has encouraged investors to reduce risk exposure and seek assets perceived as safer during periods of market uncertainty. Gold has benefited alongside government bonds, while falling bond yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Geopolitical tensions are adding to demand. Escalating hostilities involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, together with the reported sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, have raised concerns about regional security and global trade. These developments provide support for gold, although the scale and persistence of any safe-haven rally will depend on whether tensions intensify or markets begin to price in de-escalation. Bullish Sentiment Safe-haven demand: Further equity-market losses or financial-market instability could encourage additional investment in gold. Lower bond yields: A sustained decline in government bond yields would reduce the relative opportunity cost of holding gold. Geopolitical escalation: A wider Middle East conflict or further disruption to shipping could increase demand for defensive assets. Market uncertainty: If investors become less confident about the economic outlook, gold could attract additional portfolio allocations. Bearish Sentiment Federal Reserve tightening: Strong US economic data and expectations of higher rates could put renewed pressure on gold. Higher real yields: If inflation-adjusted yields rise, holding a non-yielding asset becomes less attractive. US dollar strength: A stronger dollar can make gold more expensive for international buyers and weigh on demand. Reduced geopolitical risk: Any sustained easing of tensions could reduce safe-haven buying and encourage investors to return to riskier assets. Price Outlook: What Traders Are Watching Gold’s ability to hold around $4,150 will depend on the interaction between safe-haven demand and the outlook for US monetary policy. A sustained decline in bond yields, further equity weakness or escalating geopolitical tensions could support another move higher. Conversely, a renewed rise in yields, stronger dollar or fading demand for defensive assets could expose gold to renewed selling. Markets are also weighing the supplied rate expectations: approximately a 72% probability of no change this month and a 92% probability of a December rate hike. These are market-implied estimates, not confirmed Federal Reserve decisions, and can change quickly as new data emerge. Monetary Policy Outlook The Federal Reserve remains a central influence on gold. Stronger US economic activity can support the dollar and reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain restrictive or rise further. That creates a challenge for gold bulls: geopolitical uncertainty can increase demand for protection, but higher yields can simultaneously make gold less attractive. The decisive factor will be whether falling yields and safe-haven flows persist strongly enough to offset the pressure from a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook remains sensitive to equity-market sentiment, bond yields, the US dollar and developments in the Middle East. Gold could extend its recovery if investors continue moving towards defensive assets and yields remain lower. However, the rebound should not be treated as confirmation of a sustained bullish trend while expectations of further rate increases remain elevated. The key question is whether safe-haven demand can outweigh the potential headwind from tighter US monetary policy. Currency Hedger View Businesses and investors holding gold or purchasing it in international markets should consider both the dollar-denominated price and their underlying currency exposure. A change in gold prices can be amplified or offset by movements in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and other exchange rates. Companies with material dollar-denominated purchases should assess payment timing, budget sensitivity and appropriate currency hedging arrangements rather than relying on gold prices or exchange rates moving in a particular direction. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Gold is receiving support from falling yields, equity-market weakness and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet the Federal Reserve’s potential path towards further tightening remains a significant obstacle to a sustained advance. Further gains would be supported by persistent safe-haven demand and lower yields. A stronger dollar or renewed rise in real yields could reverse the recovery. For now, gold remains caught between two powerful forces: demand for protection against uncertainty and the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Precious metals markets are volatile, and prices can respond rapidly to interest rates, currency movements and geopolitical developments. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Energies

October 16, 2026

Oil Surges Above $97 as Strait of Hormuz Risks Drive Supply Fears

Today Markets Analysis Crude oil traded above $97 per barrel on Friday and was on track for a weekly gain exceeding 6%, as escalating Middle East tensions increased concerns over the security of global oil supplies. Disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, rising tanker rates and a sharp drawdown in US crude inventories are providing support. The market is increasingly focused on whether physical oil flows can be maintained through a critical shipping corridor. Emergency stock releases by the International Energy Agency (IEA) may help cushion the impact, but they cannot immediately eliminate the consequences of prolonged shipping disruption. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionCrude oilAbove $97 per barrelWeekly performanceOn track for gains exceeding 6%US crude inventoriesDown 8.6 million barrelsIEA emergency releaseRemaining 100 million barrelsStrait of HormuzElevated shipping and security risksTanker ratesAt record highsRelative performanceWTI on track to outperform Brent Supply Outlook: Middle East Risks Dominate The sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by US Central Command as having been hit by an Iranian projectile, has heightened uncertainty around maritime security and the recovery of physical oil flows. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy shipments. Any sustained disruption could delay deliveries, increase insurance and freight costs, and force buyers to seek alternative supplies. Tensions involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen add another layer of risk. Further attacks on commercial shipping or energy infrastructure could intensify the market’s supply concerns and drive prices higher. IEA Emergency Releases Offer Some Relief The IEA has agreed to proceed with the release of the remaining 100 million barrels from a coordinated intervention launched in March, following lobbying by US officials. The additional supply could help offset some disruption and reassure buyers that emergency reserves remain available. However, releases from strategic stocks are a temporary buffer rather than a replacement for reliable production and transportation. If shipping disruptions persist, the market could still face regional shortages and higher delivered prices despite the intervention. US Crude Inventories Provide Further Support US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels in the latest week, marking the largest decline since February. The drawdown reinforces the bullish supply picture by indicating a tighter US crude balance. If further inventory declines coincide with elevated shipping costs and geopolitical uncertainty, prices could remain supported. Traders will monitor upcoming inventory reports to determine whether the latest decline represents a continuing tightening trend or a temporary fluctuation. Bullish Sentiment Strait of Hormuz disruption risk: Any sustained interruption to oil shipments could reduce immediately available supply and increase the risk premium. Record tanker rates: Higher freight costs increase the expense of moving crude and can widen regional price differences. Sharp US inventory draw: The 8.6-million-barrel decline signals a tighter domestic crude balance. Wider regional tensions: Escalation involving Saudi Arabia, Iran-backed Houthi forces or other regional actors could threaten additional energy flows. Bearish Sentiment Emergency oil releases: Additional IEA supply could help offset shortages and limit further price increases. Disruption may remain contained: If shipping resumes and physical deliveries recover, some of the geopolitical premium could unwind. Higher prices can weaken demand: Sustained increases in crude and fuel costs may reduce consumption and economic activity. WTI supply flexibility: US crude exports and alternative shipping routes may provide some flexibility, although they cannot fully replace disrupted Middle Eastern flows. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate outlook remains sensitive to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, tanker availability, regional security and the pace of emergency oil releases. A sustained move higher would become more likely if physical shipments are interrupted, tanker rates remain elevated and US inventories continue to fall. Conversely, a credible improvement in maritime security and a recovery in deliveries could trigger a pullback as traders remove some of the geopolitical risk premium. The critical distinction is between threats to shipping and actual losses or delays in oil supply. Markets may react sharply to security developments, but a lasting price increase would be more likely if disruption materially reduces available barrels. Why WTI Could Outperform Brent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was on track to outperform Brent over the week, supported by lower shipping costs for US crude and stronger demand for American barrels. When freight costs and regional supply risks increase, buyers may favour crude that can be sourced and delivered more reliably. This can support WTI relative to Brent even while both benchmarks rise. The spread between the two benchmarks will depend on US export availability, tanker costs, regional refining demand and the extent of any disruption to Middle Eastern supplies. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The balance of risks remains tilted to the upside while maritime security concerns persist and US inventories remain under pressure. The IEA release may limit the severity of a supply shock, but its effectiveness will depend on the timing and delivery of additional barrels. If the Strait of Hormuz remains operational and emergency supplies reach the market, crude could retreat from recent highs. If shipping disruption spreads or physical flows deteriorate, prices could rise further and volatility could increase. The next move will depend less on headlines alone and more on whether geopolitical risks translate into sustained disruption to actual oil deliveries. Currency Hedger View Higher oil prices can increase costs for airlines, transport companies, manufacturers and other energy-intensive businesses. For companies buying oil or refined products in US dollars, the combined effect of commodity prices and exchange-rate movements can create significant budget uncertainty. Businesses should stress-test fuel costs against further price increases and assess their exposure to the US dollar. Appropriate currency hedging can help manage exchange-rate risk, although it does not remove the underlying commodity-price risk. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Crude oil is being driven by a combination of geopolitical risk, expensive shipping and tightening US inventories. Emergency stock releases provide a potential buffer, but they cannot guarantee uninterrupted global supply if maritime disruption intensifies. Further gains are possible if oil flows deteriorate. A sustained de-escalation and a recovery in deliveries, however, could reverse part of the recent rally. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity markets are volatile and can respond rapidly to geopolitical events, inventory changes and supply disruptions. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Energies

October 16, 2026

Heating Oil Prices Extend Losses Below $4.80 as Supply Outlook Improves

Today Markets Analysis US heating oil futures have fallen below $4.80 per gallon, extending losses for a third consecutive session as expectations of increased fuel availability weigh on prices. Accelerated releases of emergency oil stocks and the resumption of Russian diesel exports are easing some supply concerns. However, the decline is taking place against a still-tight US distillate market and renewed geopolitical risks. Attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Russian refineries could disrupt supply again, limiting the scope for a sustained price retreat. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest PositionHeating oil futuresBelow $4.80 per gallonPrice directionThird consecutive session of lossesEmergency oil stocksIEA accelerating remaining releasesRussian diesel exportsResuming following partial easing of restrictionsUS distillate inventoriesDown 2.5 million barrelsInventory position12% below the five-year averageMain bearish driverProspects for increased fuel supplyMain upside riskShipping disruption and refinery damage Supply Outlook: More Diesel Could Ease Pressure The International Energy Agency has agreed to accelerate the release of remaining emergency oil stocks, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. Additional availability could ease near-term pressure on fuel markets and reduce the urgency of competition for physical supplies. Russian diesel exports have also resumed following a partial easing of restrictions. A tanker carrying approximately 40,000 metric tons of diesel departed Primorsk for Morocco, highlighting the potential for additional product flows to reach international markets. Reports of a US proposal to ease sanctions on oil tankers linked to Russia’s shadow fleet have added to expectations that global oil flows could become less constrained. Any actual impact will depend on the measures adopted, their implementation and the willingness of buyers, insurers and shipping companies to participate. US Inventories Remain a Concern Despite the improving supply outlook, US distillate inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending October 9. Stocks remain 12% below their five-year average. This matters because heating oil is closely linked to the wider distillate market, which also supplies diesel and other middle distillates. Low inventories leave the market vulnerable to sudden increases in demand or disruptions to refining and transportation. The latest decline in heating oil prices therefore reflects expectations of future supply rather than the disappearance of existing tightness. Bullish Sentiment Low US inventories: Distillate stocks remain materially below their five-year average, leaving limited protection against supply shocks. Strait of Hormuz risks: Disruptions to shipping near a critical energy transit route could restrict flows and raise transportation costs. Russian refinery attacks: Further damage to refining infrastructure could reduce diesel availability and tighten product markets. Uncertain replacement supply: Emergency stock releases provide temporary relief but do not necessarily resolve structural supply constraints. Bearish Sentiment Emergency stock releases: Accelerated releases of diesel and other oil stocks could increase near-term availability. Resumed Russian exports: Additional diesel cargoes could ease regional shortages and reduce competition for physical fuel. Potential easing of shipping restrictions: Any effective relaxation of restrictions affecting oil transportation could improve global product flows. Continued price momentum: Three consecutive sessions of losses suggest sellers remain in control in the near term. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Heating oil’s immediate direction will depend on whether expected supply increases translate into actual deliveries while US inventories remain low. A continued decline below $4.80 per gallon would reinforce the bearish short-term trend if additional diesel reaches the market and geopolitical risks remain contained. However, a sustained recovery could develop if shipping disruptions intensify, Russian refinery damage reduces exports or US inventory draws continue. Traders should distinguish between announcements of additional supply and physical barrels reaching the market. The timing, destination and scale of deliveries will determine how much relief they provide. Demand Outlook Demand for heating oil and diesel can strengthen seasonally as colder weather increases heating requirements and economic activity supports transport and industrial fuel consumption. If colder conditions coincide with low inventories and disrupted imports, the market could tighten quickly. Conversely, milder weather and steady product deliveries would make it easier for additional supply to rebuild inventories and maintain downward pressure on prices. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term bias remains bearish as markets anticipate improved fuel availability. However, the downside may be limited by low US distillate stocks and the potential for renewed geopolitical disruption. The key question is whether additional supply can reach consumers quickly enough to offset the risks to production and transportation. Until inventories recover, heating oil remains vulnerable to sharp price reversals even if the immediate trend stays lower. Currency Hedger View For fuel importers, distributors and businesses with significant diesel or heating-fuel costs, falling prices may provide an opportunity to reassess procurement budgets. However, commodity prices and exchange rates can move in opposite directions, changing the final cost of imported fuel. Businesses purchasing fuel in US dollars should evaluate both their energy-price exposure and their currency risk. Appropriate budgeting and currency hedging can help reduce uncertainty around future payments. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Heating oil is facing near-term downward pressure as emergency stock releases and resumed Russian diesel exports improve the expected supply outlook. Yet the US inventory deficit and geopolitical threats mean the market is not comfortably supplied. Further losses are possible if deliveries increase and shipping remains operational. But with inventories still below average, any meaningful disruption could quickly reverse the decline. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity markets involve significant risk, and prices can move sharply in response to supply, demand and geopolitical developments. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 16, 2026

Corn Prices Near Eight-Week Low as Record US Supply Weighs on Market

Today Markets Analysis Corn futures remain below $4.80 per bushel, close to an eight-week low, as expectations of a larger US harvest and rising inventories outweigh slower harvesting and stronger export demand. The balance of risks remains tilted towards pressure on prices while production estimates rise and substantial supplies enter the market. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataCorn futuresBelow $4.80/bushelUS 2026/27 yield forecast181.2 bushels/acreUS production forecast16.03 billion bushelsUS ending stocks forecast1.849 billion bushelsCrop maturity91%Harvest completion33%Five-year average harvest progress39%Good-to-excellent crop rating56%US export forecast3.3 billion bushels Supply Outlook: Larger Crop Keeps Prices Under Pressure The USDA has raised its 2026/27 US corn yield forecast to 181.2 bushels per acre, up from 178.5, and projected production at 16.03 billion bushels. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.849 billion bushels, reinforcing expectations of comfortable domestic availability. The higher yield estimate is particularly important because it increases the amount of corn potentially available to the market. Unless demand expands sufficiently to absorb the additional supply, larger inventories could limit price recoveries. Harvest Progress and Weather The US corn crop was 91% mature as of October 11, while harvesting stood at 33% complete, six percentage points behind the five-year average. The slower pace may temporarily delay the movement of new-crop supplies into the market, but it does not necessarily imply a smaller harvest. Crop conditions improved by two percentage points, with 56% rated good to excellent. Drier conditions over the past week and forecasts for continued dryness could help harvesting progress. Traders will monitor whether fieldwork accelerates and whether the remaining harvest brings any material changes to production expectations. Bullish Sentiment Stronger export demand: The USDA raised its US export forecast by 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion, indicating improved demand expectations. Slower harvesting: Harvest progress below the five-year average could delay immediate supply availability. Weather uncertainty: Adverse weather during the remaining harvest period could disrupt fieldwork or affect the final assessment of yields. Bearish Sentiment Higher expected yields: The increase to 181.2 bushels per acre points to a larger crop than previously anticipated. Abundant production: Forecast output of 16.03 billion bushels creates a substantial supply base. Elevated ending stocks: Projected inventories of 1.849 billion bushels could constrain price gains. Harvest acceleration: Continued dry weather could allow farmers to bring more corn to market, increasing near-term selling pressure. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Corn prices are likely to remain sensitive to the pace of harvesting, revisions to USDA production estimates and evidence that export demand can absorb the expected surplus. A sustained move below recent lows would reinforce the bearish outlook if larger supply estimates remain intact. Conversely, stronger export sales, production downgrades or weather-related disruption could support a recovery. The key issue is whether demand growth can offset the increase in available supply. At present, the production and inventory outlook remains the dominant influence. Demand Outlook The higher US export forecast provides an important source of support, but it does not yet remove concerns over the supply balance. Continued export strength will be necessary to draw down inventories and improve the outlook for prices. Traders should watch export sales, shipment data and international competition for evidence that demand is strengthening enough to absorb the larger crop. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term bias remains bearish while corn trades below $4.80 per bushel and expectations for production and inventories remain elevated. A slower harvest may provide temporary support, but it is unlikely to reverse the broader outlook on its own. The balance could change if the USDA reduces yield expectations, export demand exceeds forecasts or weather materially disrupts harvesting. Without such a development, rallies may encounter selling pressure as new-crop supplies reach the market. Currency Hedger View For agricultural traders, importers and food producers, lower corn prices may create purchasing opportunities, but price volatility and currency movements can change the final cost of international transactions. Businesses purchasing corn in US dollars should consider both commodity-price exposure and EUR/USD or other relevant exchange-rate risk when budgeting future purchases. Forward currency contracts may help manage exchange-rate uncertainty where appropriate. Open an account: Currency Hedger | Visit Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Corn faces a supply-led market as higher US yield and production forecasts outweigh the support from stronger exports and slower harvesting. Unless demand strengthens further or production estimates are revised lower, the risk remains that prices will struggle to sustain a recovery. The next major signals will come from harvest progress, export performance and any changes to the USDA’s supply estimates. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Commodity markets involve significant risk, and prices can rise or fall sharply. Forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Forex Trading

October 15, 2026

EUR/USD Parity Is Back on the Table: France’s Debt Crisis and Europe’s Economic Weakness Put the Euro at Risk

Today Markets Analysis | Currency Hedger Contributor The euro’s return to $1.00 against the US dollar is no longer a scenario that can be dismissed. France’s deteriorating public finances, political uncertainty, weak eurozone growth and persistent competitiveness problems create a credible case for further euro depreciation. EUR/USD recently fell to around $1.1160, its weakest level in 17 months, before recovering towards $1.12. That rebound does not remove the underlying risks. If fiscal concerns intensify, European growth disappoints and the dollar remains supported by relatively strong US economic performance, parity could return to focus. The central question is not whether parity is possible. It is what would need to happen for the market to move there. Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent assessmentEUR/USDAround $1.12 in mid-October 2026Parity target$1.0000Required declineApproximately 10.8% from $1.12French GDP growth forecast0.8% in 2026French budget deficit forecast5.1% of GDP in 2026French public debt forecast118.1% of GDP in 2026, rising to 120.2% in 2027Eurozone GDP growth forecast0.9% in 2026Principal downside risksFrench fiscal instability, weak European competitiveness and sustained dollar strength Figures are based on the latest cited October 2026 market levels and European Commission forecasts. Exchange rates move continuously, and forecasts are subject to revision. France Is a Serious Vulnerability for the Euro France is one of the eurozone’s largest economies. Its fiscal problems therefore matter beyond its domestic bond market. European Commission forecasts put French economic growth at just 0.8% in 2026. The budget deficit is projected at 5.1% of GDP, while public debt is expected to climb towards 120% of GDP in 2027. That combination leaves France with a difficult policy problem: weak growth limits the pace at which tax revenues can expand, while high debt and rising interest costs make fiscal adjustment harder. Political uncertainty adds another complication. Any inability to agree on credible spending reductions or revenue measures could cause investors to demand higher yields to hold French government debt. If French borrowing costs rise relative to German government bonds, concerns about eurozone financial fragmentation could intensify. France is not Greece, and a French sovereign default is not the base case. But dismissing French fiscal risk would be equally mistaken. A prolonged loss of investor confidence could weaken the euro even without a full-blown debt crisis. Europe’s Broader Economic Weakness Cannot Be Ignored France is part of a wider European problem. The European Commission projects eurozone growth of just 0.9% in 2026. The bloc also faces persistent competitiveness challenges, pressure on industrial exports and exposure to energy-price shocks. Europe has important strengths, including its industrial base, global exporters, skilled workforce and large consumer market. However, those strengths do not automatically translate into stronger currency performance. If US productivity, investment and economic growth continue to outperform Europe, international capital may favour US assets. If European businesses struggle with higher input costs and weaker external demand, the outlook for investment and growth could deteriorate further. The euro’s weakness is therefore not simply a French story. France adds a fiscal and political risk premium to a region already struggling to generate stronger growth. Historical Pricing Shows Parity Is Realistic EUR/USD has traded below parity before. In October 2000, the euro reached a historical low of approximately $0.825. In July 2022, it again fell below $1.00 as the energy crisis, recession concerns and a more aggressive Federal Reserve weighed on the currency. These episodes demonstrate that parity is not an extraordinary or impossible exchange-rate outcome. They also show that the euro can trade substantially below it when economic conditions and monetary-policy expectations turn against the single currency. From approximately $1.12, EUR/USD would need to fall around 10.8% to reach $1.00. That would be a material decline, but historical experience suggests it is within the currency pair’s demonstrated range of movement. History does not guarantee a repeat. The economic conditions driving each episode differ, and the exchange rate may recover before reaching parity. What Could Push EUR/USD Towards $1.00? Four developments would strengthen the downside case: Further French bond-market stress. A sustained widening of French-German government bond yields would signal rising investor concern about French fiscal credibility and eurozone fragmentation. Continued European economic underperformance. Weaker industrial output, subdued investment and disappointing growth could reduce the euro’s appeal relative to the dollar. A persistent US monetary-policy advantage. If US inflation and economic activity keep interest rates higher than markets expect, dollar-denominated assets could remain attractive. The relative outlook for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank matters more than either central bank’s policy in isolation. A renewed energy shock. Higher imported energy costs could squeeze European consumers and businesses, worsen inflation and weaken growth. The resulting policy dilemma could be particularly difficult for the ECB. A combination of these pressures would provide a stronger argument for parity than any single headline about France or the eurozone. The Counterargument: Parity Is Not Inevitable The euro could recover if France produces a credible fiscal plan, European growth improves, energy prices ease or US economic momentum weakens. The dollar can also fall if US policy uncertainty increases, inflation moderates or the Federal Reserve adopts a less restrictive stance than markets anticipate. These are meaningful counterarguments, but they do not remove the downside risks. The key is to avoid treating a temporary EUR/USD rebound as proof that Europe’s structural problems have been resolved. Price Outlook: Parity Is a Credible Downside Scenario EUR/USD near $1.12 leaves room for a substantial further decline if fiscal and economic risks intensify. A sustained break below recent lows around $1.116 would put further downside into focus. A move through $1.10 would bring the parity discussion closer to the centre of the market outlook. These are conditional reference levels, not guaranteed technical targets. For parity to become a more convincing central scenario, markets would likely need to see a combination of sustained dollar strength, worsening French fiscal confidence and continued European economic underperformance. Without that combination, EUR/USD could remain volatile and recover rather than continue towards $1.00. The pragmatic conclusion: parity is a credible risk worth preparing for, not a certainty worth betting everything on. Currency Hedger View: Businesses Should Prepare Now For businesses paying suppliers in US dollars or receiving revenue in euros, a move towards parity could materially change costs and margins. For example, a US-dollar invoice of $100,000 would cost approximately €89,286 at EUR/USD 1.12. At parity, the same invoice would cost €100,000 — an additional €10,714 before fees and other charges. Companies should assess their dollar exposure, stress-test budgets at different exchange rates and consider whether forward contracts or other appropriate hedging arrangements can reduce uncertainty. The right approach depends on payment dates, cash flow, risk tolerance and the cost of hedging. Waiting until parity becomes a headline could leave businesses making decisions under pressure. Open an account with Currency Hedger or visit currencyhedger.com to explore currency and hedging solutions. Today Markets View France’s fiscal position and Europe’s weak growth outlook deserve serious attention. High public debt, political uncertainty, subdued economic momentum and persistent competitiveness problems provide a rational basis for expecting further pressure on the euro if conditions deteriorate. The dollar does not need to strengthen indefinitely for parity to become possible. The euro could fall through a combination of European weakness and a relatively resilient US economy. The next phase will depend on French fiscal credibility, European growth, energy prices and the evolving interest-rate outlook on both sides of the Atlantic. EUR/USD parity is back on the table. Businesses should plan for the possibility, while traders should watch the evidence rather than assume the outcome. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, legal or financial advice. Foreign exchange markets involve significant risk, and forecasts are uncertain. Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Businesses should assess their individual currency exposures and seek appropriate professional advice before entering into hedging or trading transactions.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Lithium Prices Crash to 10-Month Low at CNY 100,000 as China Oversupply and EV Demand Concerns Weigh on Market

Today Markets Analysis | Lithium | Battery Metals | Electric Vehicles | Commodities Lithium carbonate prices in China have fallen to CNY 100,000 per tonne in October, their lowest level in nearly ten months, as concerns over softer battery demand combine with ample supply and rising reported inventories. The decline highlights the challenges facing the lithium market as battery manufacturers reassess purchasing requirements and producers restore previously suspended mining operations. Demand uncertainty is also emerging from Europe's electric vehicle market, with the European Commission set to cap annual imports of Chinese hybrid electric vehicles at 350,000 units from next year. Meanwhile, revised Chinese inventory calculations have significantly increased estimates of available stockpiles, adding to concerns that supply could exceed near-term consumption. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest Reported PositionChinese lithium carbonate priceCNY 100,000 per tonnePrice trendLowest in nearly ten monthsChinese lithium inventoriesRevised higher following a methodology changeReported inventory adjustmentIncrease of 175,000 tonnesEU import measureAnnual cap of 350,000 Chinese hybrid electric vehiclesAustralian supply outlookBald Hill and Finniss projects restarting Figures reflect the supplied market report and are not independently verified. Current Lithium Price Action Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure as the market reassesses the balance between battery-sector demand and available supply. The decline to CNY 100,000 per tonne indicates that buyers are becoming more cautious amid concerns about inventory accumulation and the pace of electric vehicle demand. The revised inventory figures are particularly significant. Industry group SMM changed its methodology for compiling Chinese lithium inventory data, resulting in an additional 175,000 tonnes being reflected in stockpile estimates, approximately double previous estimates. This adjustment does not necessarily mean that an equivalent volume of new physical lithium entered the market during the period. Instead, it highlights how changes in inventory measurement can alter perceptions of supply availability and influence market sentiment. With prices already under pressure, evidence of larger available stocks could encourage battery manufacturers to delay purchases or negotiate more aggressively, potentially limiting any near-term recovery. Supply Outlook: Australian Lithium Production Returns The resumption of operations at Australian lithium projects adds another important dimension to the market outlook. Mineral Resources has restarted the Bald Hill lithium mine following an 18-month suspension, while Core Lithium has restarted its Finniss project. These developments indicate that additional production capacity could return to the market as operating conditions and commercial considerations evolve. Restarting previously suspended mines can be faster than developing entirely new projects, although actual output depends on ramp-up schedules, operating costs, processing performance and market conditions. If production increases while Chinese inventories remain elevated, the additional supply could prolong downward pressure on lithium prices. Conversely, persistently weak prices could eventually encourage higher-cost producers to reduce output or reconsider expansion plans, helping the market move towards balance over time. Demand Outlook: Electric Vehicle Policy Adds Uncertainty Demand expectations are becoming increasingly important for lithium prices as the electric vehicle industry adjusts to changing policy and commercial conditions. The European Commission is set to cap imports of Chinese hybrid electric vehicles at 350,000 units annually from next year, according to the supplied report. The Commission expects the measure to reduce China's market share across the bloc substantially. If the policy results in fewer vehicle orders or lower production requirements among manufacturers supplying the European market, battery demand could weaken at the margin. However, the effect on lithium consumption will depend on vehicle production decisions, alternative sourcing arrangements and demand for other electric vehicle categories. The distinction between hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles is also important when assessing lithium demand because battery sizes and chemistries differ. The reported import cap should therefore not be treated as a direct measure of the reduction in lithium consumption. Bullish Sentiment: Factors That Could Support Lithium Prices Producer supply adjustments: Sustained low prices could encourage higher-cost mines to suspend operations or reduce output, limiting future supply growth. Long-term electrification demand: Continued adoption of electric vehicles and battery storage could support lithium consumption over the longer term, even if near-term demand fluctuates. Inventory normalisation: If battery manufacturers increase purchasing and available stockpiles decline, the market could begin to recover from current oversupply concerns. Improved battery demand: Stronger vehicle production, improved consumer demand or increased energy-storage investment could absorb additional lithium supply. Supply-side discipline: If producers delay expansions or limit output in response to weak prices, the market could move towards a more balanced supply-demand position. Bearish Sentiment: Risks to Lithium Prices Elevated Chinese inventories: Higher reported stockpiles suggest that readily available supply may be sufficient to meet near-term requirements without significant additional purchasing. Mine restarts: Renewed production at Bald Hill and Finniss could increase available supply if output ramps up while demand remains subdued. Weaker battery orders: Cautious purchasing by battery manufacturers could extend the downturn if inventories remain high and downstream consumption disappoints. European trade restrictions: Changes to Chinese hybrid vehicle imports could affect production plans and battery supply chains, creating additional uncertainty around regional demand. Price-driven purchasing delays: Expectations of further price declines could encourage buyers to postpone procurement, potentially reinforcing downward momentum. Lithium Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The near-term lithium outlook remains vulnerable while inventories are elevated and producers restore supply. The CNY 100,000-per-tonne level provides a key reference point for monitoring price behaviour, but it should not be treated as confirmed technical support. A sustained recovery would require clearer evidence that demand is absorbing available supply. Falling inventories, stronger battery production and improved electric vehicle sales could help stabilise prices. Conversely, further inventory accumulation or stronger-than-expected mine output could expose lithium to additional downside pressure. Traders will also monitor changes in Chinese battery production, procurement activity and the pace at which Australian projects return to normal operations. Supply Outlook The supply side remains the central issue for lithium prices. China continues to play a significant role in lithium processing and battery supply chains, while Australian producers contribute important raw-material volumes. The return of suspended mines increases the potential for additional supply, although the impact will depend on actual production volumes and operating conditions. Producers may face difficult decisions if prices remain below levels required to support attractive project economics. Over the medium term, sustained low prices could lead to reduced investment, project delays or production cuts. These adjustments may eventually tighten the market, but the timing will depend on how quickly supply responds to weak pricing and whether demand improves. Demand Outlook Lithium demand remains closely linked to electric vehicle production, battery manufacturing and energy-storage deployment. Near-term demand could remain subdued if manufacturers continue drawing down inventories rather than placing new orders. Changes in European vehicle policy may also influence production and sourcing decisions, although the impact on total lithium consumption will depend on how manufacturers adapt. Longer-term demand prospects remain connected to electrification and energy-storage investment. However, growth in end-market adoption does not automatically prevent short-term price declines when supply expands faster than consumption. The critical indicator will be whether battery manufacturers begin increasing purchases sufficiently to absorb existing inventories and additional production from restarted mines. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Lithium prices face a challenging near-term environment as higher reported inventories, cautious battery demand and renewed Australian production weigh on sentiment. The inventory revision is especially important because it changes the market's understanding of available supply, even though the adjustment itself reflects a methodological change rather than necessarily representing newly produced material. If battery orders remain subdued while Bald Hill and Finniss increase output, lithium prices could remain under pressure. A more sustained recovery would require evidence of inventory drawdowns, improving downstream demand or production adjustments that reduce the surplus. Market participants should monitor Chinese lithium prices, inventory data, battery manufacturing activity, electric vehicle sales and the pace of Australian mine restarts to assess whether the market is moving towards balance. Currency Hedger View Lithium price movements can affect the revenues, operating margins and investment decisions of mining companies, battery manufacturers and businesses involved in international supply chains. For companies trading across Australia, China and Europe, commodity-price changes can interact with movements in the Australian dollar, Chinese yuan and euro. Businesses with cross-border supplier payments or commodity-linked revenues should consider both the underlying lithium price and the currency in which transactions are settled. Changes in exchange rates can amplify or offset movements in commodity prices, affecting purchasing costs and realised revenues. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage foreign-exchange exposure through international payment solutions and currency risk management services. Open an account: Currency Hedger Onboarding Visit: currencyhedger.com Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Lithium's decline to CNY 100,000 per tonne reflects growing concern that available supply may exceed near-term demand. Higher reported Chinese inventories and the restart of Australian mining operations reinforce the pressure, while uncertainty surrounding electric vehicle demand adds another challenge for the market. The inventory revision requires careful interpretation because it reflects a change in measurement methodology rather than necessarily a sudden physical increase in supply. Nevertheless, the revised figures may influence purchasing decisions and expectations for the balance between supply and consumption. The next sustained move will depend on whether battery demand strengthens sufficiently to absorb available stocks or whether producers begin adjusting output in response to lower prices. Until clearer evidence of inventory normalisation emerges, the lithium market remains exposed to further volatility. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Commodity prices are volatile and may change significantly as market conditions evolve.

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October 15, 2026

Gold Price Outlook: Central Banks Buy Most Gold in Nearly Two Years as Bullion Tests $4,100 Support

Today Markets Analysis | Gold | Precious Metals | Federal Reserve | Central Bank Demand Gold is attempting to recover from its recent sell-off, rising more than 1% as investors assess the impact of higher US Treasury yields, Federal Reserve rate expectations and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The precious metal has stabilised around the $4,100–$4,150 per ounce area following recent losses, although the sustainability of the rebound remains uncertain while real interest rates stay elevated. Central bank demand continues to provide a significant structural source of support. Preliminary World Gold Council data cited in the supplied report indicate that official-sector purchases reached approximately 63 tonnes in September, the highest monthly total since November 2024. However, gold's near-term direction remains sensitive to US monetary policy, movements in Treasury yields and developments in the Middle East. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest Reported PositionGold priceStabilising around $4,100–$4,150 per ounceDaily price movementUp more than 1% in the supplied reportSeptember central bank purchasesApproximately 63 tonnesCentral bank buying comparisonHighest monthly total since November 2024US 10-year Treasury yieldPreviously approached 5.3%US 10-year TIPS yieldPreviously moved to just below 3%People's Bank of China gold reservesApproximately 2,410 tonnesChina's gold share of reservesApproximately 9%Central banks expecting to increase gold reserves45%, according to the cited survey Figures reflect the supplied market report and are not independently verified. Treasury yields and gold prices can change materially as market conditions evolve. Current Gold Price Action Gold is showing signs of stabilisation after a significant correction from its January peak. The recovery comes despite continued pressure across risk-sensitive assets, suggesting that buyers are returning to the market as prices approach levels some investors consider attractive. However, the stabilisation around $4,100–$4,150 does not yet establish a confirmed market bottom. The recent sell-off has coincided with rising US nominal and real yields, increasing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical outlook. Gold's relatively limited decline compared with the reported increase in real yields also raises an important question: has the relationship between bullion and interest rates weakened, or has underlying investment and central bank demand simply absorbed some of the selling pressure? The next sustained move will depend on whether gold can maintain support while Treasury yields remain elevated. A decline in real yields, a softer US dollar or renewed safe-haven demand could support a stronger recovery. Conversely, additional monetary tightening and rising real yields could restrict further gains. Central Bank Gold Demand: The Strongest Monthly Buying Since November 2024 Central banks remain a major structural influence on the gold market. According to preliminary World Gold Council data cited in the supplied report, monetary authorities purchased around 63 tonnes of gold in September, marking the highest monthly total since November 2024. The continued accumulation of bullion suggests that official-sector demand remains resilient despite historically elevated prices. Central banks use gold to diversify reserves, reduce concentration in individual currencies and maintain exposure to an asset that is not directly dependent on another government's creditworthiness. The latest World Gold Council survey also indicates that 45% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the following 12 months. If these intentions translate into actual purchases, official-sector demand could provide additional support during future price corrections. Nevertheless, monthly purchases can fluctuate considerably. Changes in reserve management, liquidity requirements and domestic economic conditions may cause individual central banks to reduce or temporarily suspend buying. China Gold Reserves: The People's Bank of China Remains in Focus The People's Bank of China continues to play an important role in the official gold market. The supplied report puts China's gold reserves at approximately 2,410 tonnes, representing around 9% of its total reserves. Continued accumulation provides a potential source of underlying demand as China diversifies its reserve holdings. Gold can reduce reliance on individual currencies and provide an alternative reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and changes in the international financial system. The broader diversification trend could extend beyond China, particularly among emerging-market central banks seeking to balance their exposure to major reserve currencies. However, the pace of future purchases remains uncertain. Gold's high price can increase the cost of additional accumulation, while central banks must also maintain sufficient liquidity and flexibility to meet their broader reserve-management requirements. Bullish Sentiment: Gold Price Drivers Strong central bank demand: The reported 63 tonnes of purchases in September highlights continued official-sector accumulation and could provide a structural source of demand during price corrections. Reserve diversification: Continued efforts to diversify away from concentrated currency holdings may support long-term gold demand, particularly if geopolitical and financial uncertainty persists. Potential decline in real yields: If inflation moderates or expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening weaken, real Treasury yields could fall, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Fiscal sustainability concerns: Rising government debt and uncertainty surrounding long-term public finances may strengthen demand for gold as a portfolio diversification asset. Geopolitical uncertainty: Renewed tensions or financial instability could increase demand for assets perceived as stores of value, supporting gold independently of short-term interest-rate movements. Bearish Sentiment: Risks to Gold Prices Higher US real yields: Rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and can make interest-bearing assets more attractive to investors. Further Federal Reserve tightening: If persistent inflation prompts additional rate increases, bullion could face renewed selling pressure through higher yields and a potentially stronger US dollar. Technical support failure: A sustained move below the $4,100 area could weaken short-term sentiment and expose gold to further corrective pressure. This level should be treated as a reference point from the supplied report rather than confirmed technical support. Reduced investment demand: If gold-backed exchange-traded funds experience sustained outflows or speculative positioning declines, investment demand may no longer offset pressure from higher yields. Liquidity-driven selling: Financial stress can occasionally force investors to sell gold to raise cash, even when the metal's longer-term safe-haven appeal remains intact. Gold Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Gold's near-term outlook depends heavily on the interaction between Federal Reserve expectations, real Treasury yields and investor demand. A sustained recovery would be more convincing if bullion holds above the recent stabilisation area while real yields ease and the US dollar weakens. Stronger investment flows and continued central bank purchases could reinforce that recovery. However, a temporary rebound driven mainly by technical buying may struggle to develop into a sustained advance if US yields continue rising. Traders will therefore be watching inflation data, labour-market indicators, Federal Reserve communications and movements in the dollar to assess whether monetary conditions are becoming more favourable for gold. The $4,100–$4,150 area remains an important reference zone in the supplied market commentary. A sustained recovery above nearby resistance could improve short-term sentiment, while renewed selling below this area could undermine the stabilisation narrative. Further price levels cannot be established reliably without a verified current price chart. Supply Outlook Gold supply remains influenced by mine production, recycling, production costs and the willingness of existing holders to sell. Higher prices can encourage recycling and improve the economics of some mining operations, potentially increasing available supply over time. However, new mine development requires substantial investment and long lead times, limiting the speed at which production can respond to stronger prices. Official-sector activity also affects the balance between available supply and demand. Continued central bank accumulation can absorb bullion that might otherwise be available to other investors, while sales by reserve managers can temporarily increase market supply. The balance between mine production, recycling, investment demand and official-sector purchases will remain important in determining how easily gold can sustain higher price levels. Demand Outlook Gold demand is being supported by a combination of central bank purchases, portfolio diversification and concerns about geopolitical and fiscal stability. Official-sector demand is particularly important because central banks often manage reserves over longer investment horizons than short-term traders. Continued accumulation could help cushion corrections, although it cannot guarantee that prices will rise during periods of tightening financial conditions. Investment demand remains more sensitive to real yields, the dollar and market positioning. If investors expect the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policy for longer, some may favour interest-bearing assets over bullion. Conversely, a shift towards lower real yields or renewed concerns about the stability of financial markets could strengthen investment demand. The interaction between these two demand sources will remain central to gold's medium-term outlook. Long-Term Gold Outlook: Debt, Reserve Diversification and Financial Stability The longer-term case for gold extends beyond the immediate direction of interest rates. Rising public debt, uncertainty over fiscal policy and concerns about the purchasing power of fiat currencies can encourage investors and reserve managers to diversify their holdings. Gold differs from government bonds and bank deposits because it does not represent a contractual promise to pay interest or repay principal. However, it also generates no income, and its market price can be highly volatile. The possibility of future monetary easing during a major economic downturn is another factor some investors consider when assessing gold's role in a portfolio. If real yields decline and confidence in conventional financial assets weakens, bullion could benefit. Nevertheless, these structural arguments do not remove the risk of further corrections. Valuations, liquidity conditions, interest rates and changes in investor positioning can dominate price action for extended periods. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Gold is attempting to stabilise following its recent correction, with central bank purchases providing a supportive longer-term backdrop. The reported September buying total reinforces the importance of official-sector demand, while the potential for reserve diversification to continue may help sustain interest in bullion. The near-term outlook remains more complicated. Elevated US Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns and the possibility of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to present challenges. A stronger recovery would require evidence that these headwinds are easing or that investment demand is strengthening sufficiently to absorb them. Traders should monitor US real yields, dollar movements, Federal Reserve guidance, gold-backed ETF flows and further World Gold Council updates. The key question is whether current stabilisation develops into a sustained recovery or remains a temporary pause in a broader correction. Currency Hedger View Gold's direction is closely connected to developments in the US dollar, real interest rates and global risk sentiment. A weaker dollar can make bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially supporting international demand. Conversely, rising US real yields and a stronger dollar can place additional pressure on gold prices. Businesses involved in international commodity trading should also consider the relationship between gold prices and their underlying currency exposure. Movements in bullion and foreign exchange rates can affect purchasing costs, sales receipts, working capital and profit margins, particularly where transactions are invoiced in US dollars. Currency Hedger helps businesses assess and manage foreign-exchange exposure through international payment solutions and currency risk management services. Open an account: Currency Hedger Onboarding Visit: currencyhedger.com Contributor: Currency Hedger Today Markets View Gold's recent stabilisation comes at a time when higher US yields are challenging bullion, but continued central bank accumulation provides an important counterweight. The reported 63 tonnes of official-sector purchases in September highlights the strength of underlying demand, while reserve diversification and fiscal uncertainty remain relevant longer-term considerations. However, central bank buying alone cannot establish a market bottom. The next sustained move will depend on whether real yields and the US dollar ease sufficiently to support renewed investment demand. For the coming sessions, the distinction between a technical rebound and a broader recovery will be critical. Gold could regain upward momentum if monetary-policy expectations become more favourable, but continued inflation pressure and further Federal Reserve tightening could extend the correction. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Gold prices are volatile, and market expectations can change rapidly.

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Banks

October 15, 2026

US Dollar: AI-driven reversal after CPI gains – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has quickly surrendered gains made after the stronger US CPI report, with the Dollar Index retreating from a year-to-date high near 102.95 back towards 102.00. He links the move to an unwind of AI-related trades and risk-off conditions, but stresses that firm inflation data and Fed expectations still provide a supportive backdrop for the Dollar. AI sell-off reverses CPI boost "The US dollar has weakened overnight quickly giving back yesterday’s initial gains after the release of the stronger than expected US CPI report for September." "After hitting a fresh year-to-date high at 102.95 yesterday, the dollar index has since fallen back towards the 102.00-level." "The reversal lower for Us yields and US dollar appears to have been driven mainly by an unwind of AI-related trades overnight resulting in more risk-off trading conditions." "After record capital inflows into the US equity market encouraged by investor optimism over AI (click here), the price action overnight highlights that it leaves the US dollar vulnerable to a correction lower when investor sentiment towards AI sours." "Nevertheless, the current fundamental backdrop remains supportive for the US dollar."

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Banks

October 15, 2026

Equities: Hot CPI and AI fears drag stocks lower – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts report that US equities sold off as a strong US CPI print and mounting fears around the AI trade weighed on risk assets. The S&P 500 posted its worst performance since July, with futures pointing to further declines. Credit spreads widened and AI-exposed names, including semiconductors, saw pronounced weakness, reinforcing a cautious near-term equity outlook. Worst S&P performance since July "Meanwhile for equities, the developments pushed the S&P 500 (-1.11%) to its worst performance since July, and futures on the index are down another -0.50% this morning. Moreover, there’s been a huge selloff in Asia overnight, with the KOSPI (-7.04%) and the Nikkei (-5.08%) both slumping, and the KOSPI even saw a circuit breaker triggered earlier given the scale of the declines." "In terms of the catalysts, several names most exposed to AI have already been under mounting pressure in recent days. For instance, we mentioned in yesterday’s edition how CoreWeave’s 5yr CDS contract went over 1000bps intraday on Tuesday, highlighting how nervous some credit investors were about the company’s leverage profile. But yesterday, their CDS was then up another +136bps, closing at 1118bps, and the company’s share price fell -15.46% on the day." "Moreover, this pressure started to be noted more widely, particularly among those firms that have been heavily scrutinised by credit investors given their large capex needs. So this led to big losses elsewhere, with Oracle (-8.83%) posting its largest decline since June, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (-4.30%) posted a 6th consecutive decline for the first time in over a year. In fact, that now leaves the index down -11.6% over those 6 sessions." "Earlier in Europe, the continent’s assets put in a relatively better performance yesterday, albeit with a strong divergence across the board. For equities, there was strength in aggregate, with the STOXX 600 (+0.43%) up to a two-week high. However, there were gains for some like the FTSE 100 (+0.70%) and the CAC 40 (+0.58%), whereas Italy’s FTSE MIB was down -0.61%"

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Nickel Price Forecast: Futures Fall Below $15,300 as Global Surplus Concerns Weigh on Market

Nickel prices have fallen below $15,300 per tonne, reaching their lowest level since December 2025 as expectations of a global supply surplus continue to pressure the market. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) has revised its 2026 outlook from a 32,000-tonne deficit to a 19,000-tonne surplus and expects the excess to widen to 70,000 tonnes in 2027. Rising Indonesian nickel ore imports from the Philippines are adding to supply availability, helping domestic smelters secure feedstock and cushioning the impact of production restrictions. However, the outlook is not entirely bearish, as Indonesia's nickel smelter association expects domestic nickel product output to decline this year amid raw-material shortages, higher ore prices, water constraints and power allocation changes. Market Snapshot Nickel price: Below $15,300 per tonne. Price trend: Lowest level since December 2025. 2026 global balance: Revised from a 32,000-tonne deficit to a 19,000-tonne surplus. 2027 surplus forecast: 70,000 tonnes. Indonesian nickel ore imports from the Philippines: Up 65.75% year-on-year to 13.52 million tonnes during January–August 2026. Indonesian nickel product output: Forecast to decline by 3.5%–4% in 2026. Nickel Price Action: Surplus Expectations Drive Selling Pressure Nickel has fallen below $15,300 per tonne as the prospect of excess global supply continues to weigh on sentiment. The latest revision to the INSG's market balance reinforces concerns that available production could exceed demand in both 2026 and 2027. The shift from a projected deficit to a surplus represents a meaningful change in the market outlook. The expected surplus of 70,000 tonnes in 2027 suggests that the imbalance could widen, potentially limiting the scope for a sustained price recovery unless demand strengthens or production growth slows. With prices now at their lowest level since December 2025, traders will be monitoring whether surplus expectations continue to dominate market sentiment or whether emerging supply constraints provide a floor. Global Nickel Supply: Surplus Forecast Expands The INSG's revised outlook places global supply conditions at the centre of the nickel market. The organisation now anticipates a 19,000-tonne surplus in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of a 32,000-tonne deficit. For 2027, the expected surplus rises to 70,000 tonnes. If these projections are realised, the market could remain under pressure as producers compete to supply available demand. A persistent surplus may also reduce the urgency for buyers to secure material, particularly if inventories increase. However, the forecasts remain subject to changes in production, consumption and operational conditions. Any significant reduction in output or improvement in demand could alter the expected balance. Indonesia's Nickel Ore Imports: Philippine Supply Supports Smelters Indonesia's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines increased by 65.75% year-on-year to 13.52 million tonnes during the first eight months of 2026. The additional ore supply is helping Indonesian smelters secure the raw materials required for production. It is also cushioning the effects of domestic production restrictions by providing an alternative source of feedstock. This development adds complexity to the global supply outlook. Although operational constraints may limit some Indonesian output, greater access to imported ore could help smelters maintain production and prevent supply restrictions from translating into a more significant global shortage. The pace of Philippine ore shipments and the ability of Indonesian smelters to process the additional material will remain important indicators for future price direction. Indonesian Smelter Output: Production Constraints Provide a Counterweight Despite increased ore imports, Indonesia's nickel smelter association forecasts a 3.5%–4% decline in domestic nickel product output this year. The association cites several pressures, including raw-material shortages, higher ore prices, drought-related water constraints and some smelters redirecting electricity towards aluminium production. These challenges could restrict the extent to which Indonesian producers increase finished nickel output. If the anticipated decline materialises, it may partially offset the bearish implications of the projected global surplus. Nevertheless, the effect on prices will depend on the scale of the production reduction relative to global supply and demand. A modest decline in Indonesian output may not be sufficient to eliminate the surplus projected for 2026 and 2027. Bullish Scenario Nickel could stabilise or recover if Indonesian production constraints prove more severe than expected, ore availability deteriorates or global demand improves. Water shortages, higher input costs and power allocation changes could limit smelter output, reducing the amount of refined nickel reaching the market. A smaller-than-forecast global surplus could also encourage buyers to reassess the downside outlook, particularly if prices have already incorporated much of the expected oversupply. Bearish Scenario Further downside remains possible if global production continues to exceed consumption and the INSG's projected surplus widens as anticipated. Increased Philippine ore shipments to Indonesia could support smelter operations, helping maintain supply despite domestic constraints. If the expected 70,000-tonne surplus for 2027 becomes more firmly established, market sentiment could remain weak. A sustained recovery would then require stronger demand, lower production or other evidence that the global balance is tightening. Nickel Price Forecast: Oversupply Remains the Key Risk The near-term outlook for nickel remains cautious as prices fall below $15,300 per tonne. The revised INSG forecasts suggest that oversupply is becoming a more significant concern, with the projected market balance shifting from a deficit in 2026 to surpluses in both 2026 and 2027. Indonesia remains central to the outlook. Increased ore imports from the Philippines are supporting smelter feedstock availability, while water constraints, higher ore costs and power allocation changes are expected to weigh on domestic product output. The key question is whether Indonesian production constraints will be sufficient to offset the broader global surplus. Unless supply expectations improve or demand strengthens, nickel may remain vulnerable to further selling pressure. Conversely, evidence of a tighter-than-expected physical market could help prices stabilise. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next INSG forecasts: Any further revisions to the 2026 and 2027 global nickel balance. Indonesian output: Whether the projected 3.5%–4% decline in domestic nickel product production materialises. Philippine ore shipments: Whether Indonesia's increased imports continue to support smelter operations. Raw-material costs: Changes in ore prices and availability affecting production economics. Water and power constraints: Whether operational restrictions intensify or ease across Indonesian smelters. Global demand: Evidence that consumption is improving enough to absorb the projected surplus. Currency Hedger View Nickel price volatility can affect industrial manufacturers, metal processors and businesses involved in international raw-material procurement. For companies purchasing nickel across borders, commodity prices and exchange rates can jointly influence landed costs, payment requirements and profit margins. Businesses with international supply chains should assess commodity exposure alongside the currencies used to settle supplier invoices. Monitoring both factors can help companies evaluate cost risks and plan cross-border payments more effectively. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore the website at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity markets are volatile, and forecasts are conditional rather than guaranteed. Always conduct independent research and consider the risks before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Zinc Price Forecast: Futures Fall to Two-Month Low Near $3,670 as Chinese Supply and US Dollar Pressure Prices

Zinc futures have fallen to approximately $3,670 per tonne in mid-October, reaching their lowest level since early August. The decline reflects expectations of increased Chinese zinc concentrate availability and renewed pressure from a stronger US dollar. However, tightening production conditions in Western markets and uncertainty surrounding European smelting capacity continue to create a more complex supply outlook. The market is balancing the prospect of improving Chinese mine output against persistent production constraints elsewhere. While rising Chinese exports are helping ease pressure in the London Metal Exchange (LME) market, backwardation in the benchmark spread indicates that nearby supply conditions remain relatively tight. Market Snapshot Zinc futures: Approximately $3,670 per tonne. Price trend: Lowest level since early August. Primary downside pressures: Expected recovery in Chinese mine production and a stronger US dollar. Western supply risks: Elevated energy costs, tight raw-material availability and uncertainty surrounding Nyrstar’s Budel smelter. Market structure: LME backwardation persists despite easing supply tightness. Zinc Price Action: Selling Pressure Builds Near Two-Month Lows Zinc has retreated to its weakest level in more than two months as traders reassess the balance between expected supply growth and continuing production challenges. The anticipated recovery in Chinese zinc concentrate availability is an important factor behind the decline. Mines that were previously disrupted by accidents and safety inspections are expected to resume operations, supporting month-on-month growth in Chinese mine output during October. A stronger US dollar is adding to the pressure. Because zinc is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially weighing on demand and commodity investment flows. The move towards $3,670 per tonne places attention on whether prices can stabilise at current levels or whether expectations of improved supply will encourage further selling. Chinese Mine Output: Supply Recovery Could Weigh on Prices China remains central to the near-term zinc outlook. The expected month-on-month increase in October mine production suggests that supply previously restricted by operational disruptions could return to the market. If production recovers as anticipated and concentrate availability improves, pressure on raw-material supply could ease. This may reduce concerns over feedstock availability and weigh on zinc prices if the additional material is sufficient to offset demand. However, the expected recovery is not the same as confirmed sustained growth. The scale of the production rebound and its effect on concentrate availability will be important in determining whether Chinese supply becomes a lasting bearish influence. Western Zinc Production: Supply Risks Remain Despite the prospect of higher Chinese output, Western zinc production continues to face structural challenges. Production fell by 3.4% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, with elevated energy costs and tight raw-material availability contributing to the pressure. These constraints could limit the extent to which global supply improves, even if Chinese mine production increases. A weaker production outlook in Western markets may therefore provide an underlying source of support for prices if demand remains sufficiently resilient. The strategic review of Nyrstar’s loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands is another important factor. Any decision affecting the facility could influence future European production capacity and reinforce uncertainty around regional supply. LME Market Structure: Backwardation Signals Nearby Tightness Rising Chinese exports have helped ease tightness in the LME market, providing some relief to immediate supply concerns. Nevertheless, the benchmark spread remains in backwardation, a market structure in which nearby metal commands a premium over later delivery. This indicates that nearby supply conditions remain relatively tight despite the improvement in export availability. The coexistence of falling outright prices and backwardation highlights the competing forces shaping the zinc market. Traders are responding to expectations of improved future supply, while the physical market continues to reflect some near-term constraints. If Chinese exports continue to increase and Western supply conditions stabilise, the pressure on the market structure could ease. Conversely, renewed production disruptions or further smelter constraints could sustain nearby tightness. Bullish Scenario Zinc could stabilise or recover if Western production constraints intensify, Chinese output disappoints expectations or raw-material availability remains tight. A decision affecting Nyrstar’s Budel smelter that reduces expected European capacity could reinforce supply concerns. Persistent LME backwardation may also indicate that immediate availability remains a source of support, limiting the extent of further downside if physical demand holds up. Bearish Scenario Further losses could develop if Chinese mine output rises as expected, concentrate availability improves and exports continue to ease LME market tightness. A sustained stronger US dollar could add another headwind by making zinc more expensive for international buyers. If improving supply expectations begin to outweigh concerns over Western production, the market could remain under pressure below recent trading levels. Zinc Price Forecast: Supply Recovery Versus Production Constraints The near-term outlook for zinc remains cautious as futures trade around $3,670 per tonne, their lowest level since early August. The principal bearish risks are a recovery in Chinese mine production and continued US dollar strength. On the other side, reduced Western production, high energy costs, tight raw materials and uncertainty surrounding European smelting capacity could limit supply growth. The direction of the next sustained move will depend on whether expected Chinese supply increases materialise and whether Western production risks intensify. LME backwardation remains an important indicator to monitor because it suggests that immediate supply conditions have not fully relaxed. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Chinese mine production: Confirmation of the expected October recovery and its impact on zinc concentrate availability. Chinese exports: Whether additional shipments continue to ease tightness in the LME market. Western production: Developments in energy costs, raw-material availability and output levels. Nyrstar’s Budel smelter: Outcomes from the strategic review and any implications for European zinc production. LME backwardation: Whether nearby supply tightness persists or begins to ease. US dollar direction: Whether continued dollar strength adds further pressure to dollar-denominated metals. Currency Hedger View Zinc price movements can affect manufacturers, industrial buyers and businesses exposed to international metals supply chains. Changes in commodity costs may influence purchasing budgets and working-capital requirements, while exchange-rate fluctuations can further alter the cost of cross-border transactions. Businesses purchasing zinc or related industrial materials internationally should consider both commodity-price exposure and the currencies in which their suppliers invoice them. Monitoring these risks together can help companies assess the impact of market volatility on margins and cash flow. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore the website at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity markets are volatile, and forecasts are conditional rather than guaranteed. Always conduct independent research and consider the risks before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Palm Oil Leads Agricultural Commodity Declines as Cotton and Wool Also Weaken

Agricultural commodities are facing renewed selling pressure, with palm oil recording the largest decline among the leading losers. Palm oil prices are down 1.53%, while cotton has fallen 0.95% and wool has slipped 0.93%. The declines place these three markets among the weakest performers in the agricultural commodity sector, with near-term price direction likely to depend on demand conditions, supply expectations and broader commodity-market sentiment. Market Snapshot Palm Oil: Down 1.53% Cotton: Down 0.95% Wool: Down 0.93% Palm oil is leading the downside, underperforming cotton and wool. The simultaneous declines across these agricultural markets point to broad weakness among the reported commodities, although the available data does not establish a common cause. Palm Oil Price Outlook: Largest Decline Among Agricultural Losers Palm oil is down 1.53%, making it the weakest performer in the reported group. Traders will be watching for signs of changing demand from food producers and biodiesel markets, alongside developments in production, inventories and competing vegetable oils. If selling pressure continues, palm oil could remain vulnerable to further losses. However, a recovery in demand expectations or tighter supply conditions could help stabilise prices. Confirmation of either scenario will require additional market data. Cotton Prices Weaken as Market Direction Comes Into Focus Cotton has declined 0.95%, extending the weakness seen across the selected agricultural commodities. Price direction will remain sensitive to textile demand, global economic conditions, crop prospects and inventory levels. A sustained deterioration in demand expectations could weigh further on cotton prices. Conversely, improving textile activity or concerns over crop supply could provide support and encourage a recovery. Wool Slips Alongside Other Agricultural Commodities Wool is down 0.93%, broadly tracking the negative direction across the reported agricultural markets. Future price movements will depend on demand from the textile and apparel industries, as well as available supply and broader economic conditions. If demand remains subdued, prices may face continued pressure. Stronger purchasing activity or supply constraints could provide a counterweight to the recent decline. Bullish Scenario Agricultural commodities could stabilise if demand expectations improve, supply risks increase or buyers return following recent weakness. Palm oil could recover if vegetable-oil demand strengthens, while cotton and wool may benefit from improved textile-sector activity. Bearish Scenario Further losses remain possible if demand weakens, inventories rise or selling pressure spreads across agricultural markets. Palm oil remains the most exposed performer in this snapshot, having recorded the largest decline among the three commodities. Agricultural Commodities Forecast The near-term outlook is cautious, with palm oil, cotton and wool all trading lower in the reported update. Palm oil's 1.53% decline makes it the key market to monitor, followed by cotton and wool. The current figures confirm negative price performance but do not, on their own, establish whether the weakness will persist. Further confirmation from supply, demand and inventory data will be important before assessing the durability of the declines. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Palm oil: Changes in production, inventories, vegetable-oil demand and biodiesel consumption. Cotton: Textile demand, crop conditions, export activity and stock levels. Wool: Textile-sector purchasing, apparel demand and available supply. Broader agricultural sentiment: Whether selling remains concentrated in these commodities or spreads across the wider sector. Currency Hedger View Agricultural commodity weakness can matter for businesses exposed to international purchasing, production costs and cross-border trade. However, the reported price declines alone do not establish a direct currency-market impact. Importers, exporters and businesses with foreign-currency obligations should assess commodity-price movements alongside relevant exchange rates, payment schedules and their underlying exposure. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore the website at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity prices can be volatile, and forecasts are conditional rather than guaranteed. Always conduct independent research and consider the risks before making financial decisions.

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Banks

October 15, 2026

Polish Zloty: Exposed as NBP delays tightening – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights slightly higher final Polish inflation and unchanged core forecasts, with most Monetary Policy Committee members signalling that December is the earliest for rate-hike discussions. He argues delayed National Bank of Poland tightening, a firmer Dollar and record gas prices leave the Zloty vulnerable, and reiterates expectations for EUR/PLN to return to the 4.380–4.400 range. Dovish NBP stance weighs on Zloty "Final Polish inflation was revised slightly higher to 4.1% from the 4.0% September flash estimate. Our core inflation forecast is unchanged at 3.1%, down from 3.3%, with today’s release expected to confirm the figure." "Since the October National Bank of Poland meeting, nearly all Monetary Policy Committee members have spoken, offering mixed signals. Most have sounded somewhat more hawkish than Governor Adam Glapinski, but the majority see December – not November – as the earliest for discussing a rate hike." "All agree that the new forecast and pace of disinflation next year will be decisive. Detailed interviews have also focused on government measures to cap household fuel prices. Approved only through year-end, these measures reduce headline inflation by 0.6-0.7pp." "We can assume these measures can be extended into Q1 if needed, with the Ministry of Finance indicating that a decision will come in December. This should allow the NBP to delay tightening further. Our economists still expect hikes to begin in Q1 next year, with 50bp of tightening in total." "Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US core CPI halted gains in CEE currencies and pushed sentiment back into risk-off mode. Our bearish CEE FX view remains unchanged: a firmer US dollar and record-high gas prices will make it difficult for regional currencies to sustain gains." "The PLN looks particularly vulnerable given the NBP’s dovish stance relative to market pricing. We therefore continue to expect EUR/PLN to return to the 4.380-4.400 range."

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Chart of the Day: US100 at its weakest since July 2026

The US100 index of U.S. technology companies is down for another session, retreating to around 29,800 points (−1.1%), as a wave of profit-taking sweeps through global markets, targeting semiconductor and AI-related stocks. This is not a crash caused by a collapse in fundamentals—it is rather a reassessment of the cost of capital in a world of higher and potentially rising interest rates. Investors are not questioning whether there is demand for AI, but rather what price is worth paying for this growth. The Trigger: Data Center Debt and Rising Inflation The catalyst was the higher-than-expected CPI inflation reading for September, which reignited fears of further Fed rate hikes, but it was the tech sector that led the sell-off. The focus shifted to the financing of the AI infrastructure boom. Yields on bonds issued by CoreWeave—an “neo-cloud” operator—skyrocketed to around 15% (the 2032 maturity at 14.8%), while the stock itself plummeted by 15.5%. Elon Musk summed up these moves with a single word: “yikes.” Oracle (−9%), Nebius (−10%), and Dell (−11%) also came under pressure, and the cost of insuring the debt of AI giants (CDS) rose in some cases to record levels. The scale of the phenomenon is evident in the background: the hyperscalers alone—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle—have issued over $228 billion in bonds this year, more than double the amount issued in all of 2025. Asia was hit the hardest Asia was hit hardest by the sell-off, as it is the most exposed to memory and semiconductors. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 7.57% to a six-month low, falling as much as 9.29% along the way and triggering a circuit breaker for the first time since July. Samsung Electronics lost nearly 9.5%, while SK Hynix fell as much as 11.1%. The Nikkei 225 dropped 5.4%, with Kioxia and SoftBank falling by more than 9–11%. Against this backdrop, TSMC stood out by defying the pessimism: the Taiwanese giant posted a record net profit in the third quarter—763.1 billion TWD (approx. 23.6 billion USD), up 69% year-over-year—beating forecasts and reporting its sixth consecutive record quarter. This is a strong counterargument: demand for flagship chips remains strong, regardless of the jitters surrounding companies at the end of the supply chain. Despite this, TSMC’s stock price fell by 2%, which clearly reflects the nature of this sell-off—the market is overestimating the company’s valuation and the cost of capital, rather than actual demand for computing power. Technical Analysis of the US100 The US100 daily chart shows a clear reversal in momentum after the index hit new highs above 31,000 points in early October. The current pullback has brought prices down to around 29,800 points, where an important zone lies—a black horizontal line defined by earlier consolidations from July through September, which coincides with the lower band of the green channel. This is the first technical test to see whether buyers will defend the ground regained after the summer lull. A key signal is coming from the RSI. On the daily chart, the indicator has slipped to around 39.9 —its lowest level since July of this year and below the conventional 40 line, which has repeatedly served as the lower boundary of corrections during this year’s bull market. The pace of the decline itself is also telling: this is the most decisive downward momentum impulse we’ve seen since the middle of the summer. As long as the RSI remains in the 40–50 range, we’re still talking about a correction within an uptrend; a sustained drop below this level would pave the way for a deeper pullback and a test of lower-lying moving averages. Below current levels, the long-term 200-day EMA around 28,240 points is drawing attention—this is a natural zone of potential, deeper support should supply pressure intensify. It is also worth noting the deteriorating market breadth: the proportion of Nasdaq 100 companies trading above their 50-session moving average has fallen to about 40%, confirming that the sell-off is broad-based and not limited to a few of the most indebted stocks.

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Banks

October 15, 2026

Turkish Lira: Managed depreciation fails to remove devaluation risk – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Karahan claims a faster Lira depreciation is being allowed to avoid a sharper future devaluation. Ghose argues that USD/TRY remains on a mechanically managed, roughly 20% annualised depreciation path, which is still too slow versus 30–35% inflation. With CBRT cutting rates, he warns that underlying inflation and external imbalances keep long-term devaluation risks for the Lira intact. Rate cuts and FX management raise risks "Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) governor, Fatih Karahan, reportedly told investors yesterday that CBRT is allowing the lira to depreciate more quickly in order to prevent the need for a sharper future devaluation. Karahan argued that weaker economic activity has reduced inflation pass-through, making this an opportune time to adjust the currency’s path. There are several problems with this argument:" "We do not detect a discernible acceleration in the pace of depreciation in recent days or weeks. But, the lira has been on a steady, rapid depreciation path in any case, annualising to around 20% in recent months." "This straight-line trajectory has been maintained with the help of FX intervention by the central bank and state-owned banks, which is well known and recognised by the FX market. We have often cited the mechanical-looking intraday trading pattern of USD/TRY to argue that the lira is not a free-floating exchange rate in any conventional sense. The familiar pattern remains one of flat segments followed by breaches of successive levels of defence." "CBRT has entered into a rate-cutting cycle. This may now be sold as a tactically smart move, which consciously targets ‘healthy’ lira depreciation. But rate cuts alongside managed depreciation do not resolve the underlying inflation and balance of payments problems. Inflation cooled for only one month, in a globally pro-inflationary environment. CBRT’s rate cuts only increase risks for the lira." "Nevertheless, a 20% annualised depreciation rate still means that Turkey’s real exchange rate has been appreciating, given inflation in the 30%-35% region. In other words, nominal depreciation is not rapid enough to eliminate real appreciation or necessarily move the exchange rate towards fair-value. For this reason, it is difficult to agree with CBRT’s assessment that the present currency path is avoiding the risk of a future devaluation."

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Banks

October 15, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ hawkishness supports JPY against US Dollar – MUFG

Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Japanese Yen has benefited from risk-off trading and hawkish Bank of Japan commentary, pushing USD/JPY back below 158.00. BoJ board member Junko Koeda signalled upside risks to prices and a neutral rate well above 1%, while MUFG still expects no move at the October meeting but another hike by December, supporting the Yen outlook. Risk-off and BoJ rhetoric lift Yen "The yen has benefitted from more risk-off trading conditions overnight resulting in USD/JPY dropping back below the 158.00-level although its performance has been more mixed against non-USD currencies." "The stronger yen has also been encouraged by encouraged by hawkish comments from BoJ board member Junko Koeda." "In a speech to local leaders in Kumamoto overnight, she stated “given that there are considerable upside risks to prices in addition to continued accommodative financial conditions, the Bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate”." "Junko Koeda stated that she believes the level of the neutral interest rate is considerably above 1%” which indicates that she still sees room for further rate hikes with the current policy rate at 1.25%." "We still expect the BoJ to leave rates on hold this month but hike again before the end of this year in December providing more support for the yen."

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Banks

October 15, 2026

Indian Rupee: Recovery against US Dollar constrained by externals – OCBC

OCBC Bank’s Christopher Wong argues that recent RBI measures and the governor’s willingness to act further have curbed speculative activity and supported the Indian Rupee. However, stronger US Dollar, elevated Oil prices and external headwinds are seen limiting gains, with technicals pointing to moderating downside in USDINR and key support at 94.70 and 94.20 and resistance around 95.60 and 96. RBI action vs USD and Oil headwinds "USD/INR briefly traded below 95 before erasing losses into the close. Firmer USD and oil played a role in disrupting INR’s recovery momentum. Nevertheless, the speed and breadth of RBI’s recent measures reflected a strong sense of urgency to curb speculative activity and stabilise the currency." "Governor Malhotra’s willingness to consider further measures should also make markets more cautious about building fresh short-INR positions." "We may still see some room for near-term INR recovery, although the external environment remains challenging. Overnight, stronger-than-expected US CPI lifted the USD and US Treasury yields, while elevated oil prices remain a drag on India’s external balance. These developments reinforced our view that while regulatory measures can contain speculative pressures and offer near-term support, they cannot fully insulate INR from external headwinds." "A more sustained recovery would likely require some easing in oil prices and USD strength." "Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell. Lingering bearish pressure remains on the cross but moderating RSI and price action overnight cautioned for a moderation in the pace of decline for the pair, especially after a near 2% drop in 4 sessions. Support at 94.70 levels (50% fibo retracement of Apr low to Oct high, recent low) and 94.20 (61.8% fibo). Resistance at 95.60 levels (50, 100 DMAs), 96 levels (21 DMA)."

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Banks

October 15, 2026

British Pound: Wider trading range expected against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD’s sharp swing between 1.3275 and 1.3137 before closing at 1.3196. Short term, recovery is expected to extend toward 1.3260 but is unlikely to sustain above that level. Over the next one to three weeks, price action is viewed as range expansion, with the Pound likely confined between 1.3135 and 1.3280. Pound trapped in broader range "24-HOUR VIEW: After GBP rose to a high of 1.3259 two days ago, we indicated yesterday that “the advance has scope to extend, but with no significant increase in upward momentum, GBP may not break the major resistance at 1.3280.” We added, “to sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3230.” The subsequent price action did not unfold as expected. GBP rose to 1.3275 but then it plunged to a low of 1.3137. The decline was brief, as GBP rebounded strongly from the low to close at 1.3196 (-0.45%), with the recovery extending into the early Asian session today. The recovery could extend to 1.3260. Based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level is unlikely. On the downside, a breach of 1.3180 (minor support is at 1.3205) would mean GBP is more likely to range-trade rather than continuing to recover." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted on Monday (12 Oct, spot at 1.3235) that GBP “is expected to trade in a range between 1.3170 and 1.3280.” Yesterday, GBP rose close to 1.3280 with a high of 1.3275 before plummeting to a low of 1.3137. GBP rebounded sharply from the low. The price action did not result in any clear increase in downward momentum. The decline to 1.3137 appears to be more of a range expansion rather than the start of a sustained decline. From here, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3135 and 1.3280, and GBP must clearly break either of these levels before a more directional move can be expected."

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Global Markets Sell Off as AI Fears Deepen, Inflation Pressures Persist and Geopolitical Risks Escalate

Global financial markets are facing renewed volatility as concerns over artificial intelligence investment returns, persistent inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions converge. US equities have recorded a third consecutive session of losses, Asian technology stocks have suffered sharp declines, and credit markets are signalling growing concern over the cost of financing the AI infrastructure boom. At the same time, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are adding uncertainty to the global energy outlook, while hotter-than-expected US inflation is complicating expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Despite these inflationary pressures, US Treasury yields have retreated from their post-data highs, suggesting investors are increasingly weighing the risks of weaker economic growth alongside the possibility of further monetary tightening. The resulting market environment is increasingly divided: technology equities and cryptocurrencies are under pressure, while gold is benefiting from lower yields and a weaker dollar. Oil prices, meanwhile, are being pulled in opposite directions by geopolitical supply risks and speculation that US policy measures could increase available crude flows. Market Snapshot US equities: The S&P 500 fell 1.11% to 7,718.94, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.88%. The Dow lost 0.09%. Asian markets: South Korea's KOSPI and KOSDAQ each fell approximately 8%, with the KOSDAQ triggering a 20-minute trading halt. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by more than 5% intraday. AI credit risk: Oracle's five-year CDS spread reached a reported record 288 basis points, SoftBank's widened to 424 basis points and CoreWeave's exceeded 1,000 basis points. US inflation: September headline CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, while core inflation reached 2.6%. US Treasury yields: The 10-year yield retreated to approximately 5.10%, giving back its post-CPI increase. Foreign exchange: The dollar weakened as yields fell, with EUR/USD rising to approximately 1.1225 and USD/JPY declining to around 157.7. Australian dollar: AUD/USD slipped to approximately 0.6956 after employment fell by 39,300 in September and unemployment remained at 4.7%. Oil: Brent declined approximately 1.7% to $104.20 a barrel, while WTI traded around $94. Gold: Rose approximately 1% to $4,146 an ounce as the dollar weakened and Treasury yields declined. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin traded near $80,900 after briefly falling below $81,000, with reported liquidations of approximately $485 million. AI Investment Concerns Drive a Broader Technology Selloff Technology stocks remain at the centre of the market downturn as investors reassess the sustainability of the enormous capital expenditure associated with artificial intelligence. The concern is increasingly focused not simply on future demand for AI, but on whether the expected returns will justify the financing costs and valuations attached to the sector. Wall Street's third consecutive session of losses reflects this shift in sentiment. The Nasdaq fell 1.88%, while the semiconductor index extended its decline to a sixth consecutive session. Oracle, CoreWeave and Nvidia were among the companies facing pressure as investors scrutinised the financial commitments required to expand AI infrastructure. Credit markets are adding to the concern. Oracle's five-year credit default swap spread reportedly widened by 26 basis points to 288 basis points, while SoftBank's reached 424 basis points and CoreWeave's climbed above 1,000 basis points. These movements indicate a greater market premium for credit risk, although CDS levels alone do not establish that a company will default. The deterioration in market breadth also suggests the weakness extends beyond a small group of headline indices. Only approximately 18% of S&P 500 companies were reported to be trading above their 50-session moving averages, while around 27% were above their 200-session averages. This points to widespread weakness beneath the index level, despite the influence of mega-cap companies on headline performance. The immediate question is whether the selloff represents a correction in expensive AI-linked assets or the start of a broader reassessment of corporate earnings and financing conditions. Further weakness in semiconductor stocks and rising credit spreads would reinforce the more cautious interpretation. Asian Technology Stocks Face Intensifying Pressure The technology selloff has spread forcefully across Asian markets, where semiconductor manufacturers and equipment suppliers have substantial exposure to the global AI infrastructure cycle. South Korea's KOSPI and KOSDAQ both fell approximately 8%, with trading in the KOSDAQ halted for 20 minutes. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped by more than 5% during the session, while the broader Topix index recorded a smaller decline of approximately 2.5%. Losses were particularly pronounced in memory and semiconductor equipment companies. SK Hynix and Kioxia fell by more than 11%, Samsung Electronics declined approximately 9.3%, and Japan's Advantest dropped nearly 14%. SoftBank, a major investor in OpenAI, lost approximately 9.4%, while Tokyo Electron fell more than 7%. Investor concerns include the possibility of future memory oversupply and intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers. Expectations of stronger Chinese production capacity could challenge assumptions about pricing power and long-term margins across parts of the memory market. These developments do not necessarily signal an end to AI demand. Rather, they highlight the possibility that the pace of investment, future supply and competitive pressures may not align with the most optimistic market expectations. Until investors have greater clarity on spending returns and future earnings, semiconductor and AI-linked shares may remain vulnerable to sharp repricing. US Inflation Complicates the Federal Reserve Outlook US inflation remains a significant source of uncertainty. September headline CPI increased by 3.7% year-on-year, while core inflation reached 2.6%, both above the respective market forecasts cited in the supplied report. Energy prices were a major contributor, with the energy index rising 5.2%. US gasoline prices were reported to average $4.33 per gallon, compared with $3.08 a year earlier, highlighting the pressure that higher fuel costs are placing on consumers and businesses. The inflation figures have strengthened concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain restrictive policy for longer or consider additional tightening. Market pricing cited in the report placed the probability of an October rate hike at approximately 29%, up from 22%, while assigning around a 75% probability to rates remaining unchanged. Fed officials have continued to express concern about inflation. Mary Daly indicated that further rate increases were more likely than not, while suggesting there was no need for immediate action in October. Austan Goolsbee described the inflation reading as disappointing, and the Beige Book highlighted diesel-related price pressures. However, the policy outlook remains uncertain. Citi reportedly pushed back its expectations for a December rate hike, illustrating that stronger inflation does not automatically translate into a consensus for immediate tightening. The next round of producer prices, retail sales and weekly jobless claims will help investors assess whether inflation pressures are spreading, whether consumer demand remains resilient and how much room the Federal Reserve has to respond. Treasury Yields Fall Despite Hotter Inflation The bond market's response to the inflation data has been notable. Treasury yields initially rose following the hotter-than-expected CPI report but subsequently surrendered those gains, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling to approximately 5.10%, its lowest level in three weeks according to the supplied figures. This reversal suggests that investors are weighing inflation risks against concerns about economic growth and the equity-market selloff. When investors seek protection from falling share prices, demand for government bonds can increase, putting downward pressure on yields. The retreat in yields has also contributed to dollar weakness, despite the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening. This illustrates the competing forces currently influencing currency markets: interest-rate expectations remain important, but changes in risk appetite and demand for defensive assets can also shape short-term price action. If yields continue to decline alongside equities, markets may increasingly be signalling concern about the economic consequences of the technology downturn. Conversely, a renewed rise in yields driven by persistent inflation could place additional pressure on high-valuation equities and other interest-rate-sensitive assets. Strait of Hormuz Tensions Keep Energy Supply Risks Elevated Geopolitical risks remain a significant influence on the energy outlook. The supplied report describes escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz following attacks on commercial shipping, including the sinking of the Singapore-registered container ship GFS Pride and damage to the GFS Giselle. Statements from US Central Command and reported Iranian military rhetoric indicate that the situation remains highly sensitive. The report also cites continuing Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, adding to concerns about the security of regional energy infrastructure. These developments create a potential risk to crude oil and refined-product supply chains. Disruptions around a major shipping route could increase freight costs, insurance premiums and delivery uncertainty, potentially keeping energy prices elevated even if underlying demand weakens. However, oil prices have moved lower despite the geopolitical escalation. Brent fell approximately 1.7% to $104.20 a barrel, while WTI traded near $94. The report attributes part of the decline to speculation that the US administration may ease sanctions affecting certain oil-shipping operations to increase supply flows and reduce freight costs. This creates a conflict between immediate supply risks and the possibility of additional barrels reaching the market. Oil's next move will depend on whether geopolitical disruptions intensify, alternative export routes remain available and policy measures translate into actual changes in supply. The International Energy Agency has also warned that diesel-market constraints could persist into next year. Further disruption to regional supply or shipping could therefore place renewed upward pressure on fuel costs, complicating the inflation outlook for major economies. Dollar Weakens as the Euro and Yen Advance The US dollar has retreated from its recent highs as Treasury yields have fallen and investors reassess the balance between inflation, monetary policy and growth risks. EUR/USD strengthened approximately 0.6% to 1.1225, while USD/JPY declined 0.4% to around 157.7. The yen has also received support from relatively hawkish Bank of Japan commentary, with policymaker Junko Koeda indicating that the central bank should not be excessively cautious about further rate increases. The report places the Bank of Japan's estimated neutral interest rate well above 1%, compared with the cited current policy rate of 1.25%. Such comments may support expectations that Japanese monetary policy could remain on a gradual normalisation path, although the timing of any future adjustment remains uncertain. For the dollar, the key question is whether falling yields reflect a temporary shift in positioning or a more persistent deterioration in growth expectations. If US yields continue to decline relative to those elsewhere, the dollar could face further pressure. However, renewed inflation concerns or a stronger demand for dollar liquidity could reverse that move. The euro's advance may therefore depend on both US developments and the relative outlook for European growth and monetary policy, while the yen remains sensitive to the Bank of Japan's policy signals and broader changes in risk appetite. Australian Dollar Weakens After Disappointing Employment Data The Australian dollar has underperformed other major currencies following a much weaker-than-expected labour-market report. Australian employment fell by 39,300 jobs in September, compared with expectations for an increase of 20,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.7%, its highest level in five years according to the supplied report. The data have reduced market expectations for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase. The probability of a November hike was reported to have fallen to approximately 15%, compared with nearly 50% at the beginning of the month. AUD/USD consequently weakened to around 0.6956. The reaction reflects a reassessment of the domestic interest-rate outlook, with weaker employment reducing the perceived need for additional monetary tightening. The outlook for the Australian dollar will depend on whether subsequent labour-market and inflation data confirm a cooling economy. If employment remains weak and expectations for RBA tightening continue to recede, AUD/USD could remain under pressure. A stronger recovery in employment or renewed inflation concerns could alter that assessment. Gold Gains as Lower Yields Support Defensive Demand Gold has rebounded from its weekly low, rising approximately 1% to $4,146 an ounce. The advance has coincided with a weaker US dollar and falling Treasury yields, both of which can support the precious metal. Because gold does not pay interest, lower yields can reduce the opportunity cost of holding it. A weaker dollar can also make gold less expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially supporting demand. The supplied report also references speculation surrounding China's holdings of US government debt, including the possibility that some holdings may be routed through other countries. Such reports can influence sentiment around reserve diversification, although the precise scale and implications of any undisclosed holdings remain uncertain. Silver gained approximately 0.7% to $56 an ounce, while platinum and palladium also advanced. Gold's near-term outlook will depend on the direction of real and nominal yields, dollar performance and demand for defensive assets. If market volatility continues and Treasury yields remain under pressure, gold may retain support. A rebound in yields or a stronger dollar could limit further gains. Oil Faces Conflicting Geopolitical and Supply Signals Crude oil is being pulled between escalating geopolitical risks and expectations that additional supply could reach the market. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, threats to Saudi energy infrastructure and concerns about diesel availability create upside risks for energy prices. Disruptions to shipping can raise transport and insurance costs even before a material reduction in physical supply occurs. On the other hand, reports that the US administration is considering changes to sanctions affecting the so-called shadow fleet have raised the possibility of increased oil flows and lower freight costs. The release of strategic reserves and the continued use of alternative Saudi export routes may also cushion the immediate effect of disruptions. This combination helps explain why oil prices can decline even as geopolitical risks intensify. Markets are assessing not only the probability of disruption but also the availability of alternative supply, the potential policy response and the effect of weaker financial-market sentiment on demand expectations. The next move will depend on developments in the Gulf, the effectiveness of alternative routes and whether diesel-market tightness spreads into broader energy pricing. Bitcoin Falls as Investors Reduce Risk Exposure Cryptocurrencies have also come under pressure amid the wider risk-off move. Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000 and was trading around $80,900, down approximately 0.8% in the supplied figures. Liquidations were reported at approximately $485 million. The decline coincides with weakness in technology equities and uncertainty over interest rates. When investors reduce exposure to volatile assets, leveraged cryptocurrency positions can be particularly vulnerable to rapid price moves and forced liquidations. Bitcoin's direction will depend partly on broader risk appetite, liquidity conditions and expectations for US monetary policy. A stabilisation in equities and yields could help ease selling pressure, while continued market stress could trigger further volatility. The recent decline does not by itself establish a sustained bearish trend, but it highlights the sensitivity of digital assets to changes in investor positioning and funding conditions. Corporate Developments: Anthropic, Netflix and CoreWeave Several company-specific developments are adding to the market's focus on financing, profitability and future growth. Anthropic, the developer of Claude, reportedly recorded third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, compared with $11.6 billion in the second quarter and $4.7 billion in the first. The report also cites adjusted profitability and positive cash flow ahead of a potential November IPO. These figures and the anticipated listing remain subject to the company's own disclosures and the applicable reporting process. Netflix announced plans to cut approximately 6% of its workforce, or around 1,000 employees, primarily across product, technology, legal and human resources. The move adds to investor attention on operating costs and efficiency across the technology and media sectors. CoreWeave fell more than 15% in after-hours trading amid concerns about debt associated with AI investment. The reaction reinforces the broader market's focus on whether the financing required to build AI infrastructure can be supported by future cash flows. Other reported developments include Rocket Lab postponing the debut of its Neutron rocket to 2027, with shares falling 7% after the close, and legal challenges against OpenAI brought by eight US states concerning alleged harms to children and misleading parents. These company-specific developments may influence individual share prices but should be distinguished from the broader macroeconomic drivers affecting global markets. Global Markets Forecast: What Comes Next? The near-term outlook remains highly sensitive to the interaction between inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and the sustainability of AI investment. The immediate focus is on US producer prices, retail sales and weekly jobless claims. Stronger-than-expected inflation or consumer demand could reinforce expectations for restrictive monetary policy, while weaker activity could strengthen concerns about slowing growth. Neither outcome is straightforward for markets: inflation may pressure valuations through higher yields, while weaker growth may undermine corporate earnings. The technology selloff is another central variable. If semiconductor stocks stabilise and credit spreads stop widening, investors may begin to distinguish between companies with sustainable business models and those carrying greater financing risk. Continued declines in AI-linked equities, combined with weakening market breadth, would point to a more persistent adjustment. Geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz could add further volatility to oil, fuel costs and inflation expectations. At the same time, a weaker dollar and falling yields have supported gold and selected major currencies, while the Australian dollar has been constrained by weak employment data. The market's direction will ultimately depend on which force dominates: persistent inflation and financing pressure, or deteriorating growth expectations and demand for defensive assets. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next US producer prices: Assess whether wholesale inflation confirms or challenges the latest consumer-price trend. US retail sales and jobless claims: Monitor consumer resilience and labour-market conditions for further clues about the Fed's policy outlook. Federal Reserve speeches: Listen for changes in the balance between inflation risks and concerns about economic growth. TSMC earnings and guidance: Evaluate whether semiconductor demand and AI-related capital expenditure remain consistent with current market expectations. AI credit spreads: Watch Oracle, SoftBank and CoreWeave credit-risk indicators for evidence of further deterioration or stabilisation. Asian technology shares: Monitor whether losses spread further across semiconductor manufacturers and equipment suppliers. Strait of Hormuz: Track shipping security, regional military developments and any changes to oil supply routes. Brent and WTI crude: Assess whether supply concerns regain control of pricing or weaker risk sentiment continues to weigh on oil. US Treasury yields and the dollar: Further yield declines could support gold and pressure the dollar, while a reversal may alter those dynamics. EUR/USD and USD/JPY: Watch relative monetary-policy expectations and changing risk sentiment for confirmation of recent currency moves. AUD/USD: Follow Australian labour and inflation data for evidence of whether expectations for RBA policy are shifting further. Gold and Bitcoin: Monitor whether defensive demand continues to support gold while risk-sensitive digital assets remain under pressure. Currency Hedger View The current market environment highlights how quickly currency conditions can change when geopolitical tensions, energy prices, interest-rate expectations and equity-market volatility interact. The weaker dollar has supported the euro and yen, while falling yields have contributed to gold's rebound. However, these moves may not persist if US inflation surprises again, the Federal Reserve's policy outlook changes or geopolitical developments trigger a renewed demand for dollar liquidity. Energy-market volatility also presents risks for businesses whose costs and revenues are exposed to oil prices or cross-border payments. Importers, exporters and internationally active companies should consider how changes in exchange rates could affect margins, supplier payments and future cash flows. Monitoring market developments alongside a clear assessment of payment dates and currency exposures can help businesses decide whether forward contracts or other appropriate hedging arrangements fit their needs. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Explore Currency Hedger or visit currencyhedger.com to learn more about managing international currency exposure. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Equity, bond, commodity, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange markets involve significant risk. Market scenarios and forecasts are conditional and may not materialise. Businesses and investors should assess their own circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

TSMC breaks records once again driven by the AI boom

Key takeaways TSMC posted a net profit of 763.1 billion TWD, beating market expectations by a wide margin. Advanced technologies accounted for 79% of wafer revenue, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure. The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance and projects record capital expenditures of 64 billion USD. Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC published its third-quarter results on Thursday, which once again exceeded market expectations and marked the sixth consecutive record quarter in terms of net profit. The company generated 763.1 billion TWD in net profit (~$23.8 billion), representing an increase of 68.7% YoY and clearly beating Bloomberg's consensus of 739.5 billion TWD. Revenue reached 1.49 trillion TWD ($46.7 billion), growing by 50.9% YoY (compared to a forecast of 1.46 trillion TWD). Operating profit stood at 876.4 billion TWD with an operating margin of 58.7%, while the gross margin settled at 66.4% — slightly below the 67.7% recorded in the previous quarter, which the company attributes to ramp-up costs for its newest 2nm technology node. The scale of the positive surprise was also evident on a per-share basis: earnings per share (EPS for ADRs listed in New York) came in at $4.60 compared to the expected $4.45 (+57.5% YoY). Revenue expressed in USD ($46.72 billion) beat market estimates by 2.4% and grew by 41.2% compared to the same period last year. What is driving these spectacular results? Insatiable demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure remains the main growth driver. Advanced technologies (7nm chips and newer) accounted for as much as 79% of wafer revenue, with the 3nm node alone contributing 33%. Production in the breakthrough 2nm technology, launched only this year, has already brought in 8% of revenue, demonstrating the impressive pace of adoption of the latest processes by key customers. As the exclusive supplier of the most advanced chips for Nvidia and Apple, TSMC's results are widely treated as a reliable barometer of actual demand for AI computing power. Importantly, TSMC's report arrived amid growing doubts regarding the profitability of global AI spending, fueled by the recent sell-off in shares of cloud provider CoreWeave. However, TSMC presented a strong counterargument: demand for flagship integrated circuits is not weakening, regardless of market nervousness around end-application companies. Forecasts and Capital Expenditures (CapEx) The company has once again raised its full-year revenue growth guidance for 2026 (currently "slightly above 40%" in USD terms), and the presented results suggest that these estimates may still prove to be conservative. This year's capital expenditures are projected to reach a record level of $64 billion. Market attention, however, is shifting to 2027: while the Bloomberg consensus predicts capital spending at $75 billion, Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their forecasts to $85 billion and $90 billion, respectively. Such significant increases indicate that the market may still be underestimating the scale of the company's global expansion. TSMC is expanding its manufacturing network at an unprecedented pace, currently building around 20 facilities simultaneously (compared to the standard 4-5). After committing an additional $100 billion in investments in Arizona in July (totaling $265 billion in US commitments), the company is currently analyzing the construction of another manufacturing complex in Texas to meet the growing demand from US data centers. Market Reaction and Valuation TSMC shares have gained nearly 60% this year, and the company was among the first in the semiconductor sector to reach new all-time highs following the July pullback in the tech sector. Despite recent downside pressure resulting from general profit-taking across AI stocks, the company's valuation remains reasonable. The Forward Price-to-Earnings (Forward P/E) ratio currently stands at around 21.7x, above its seven-year average (17.1x), but noticeably below the June peak of 26x (when the stock price exceeded $477) and below the levels seen in 2022, when the stock traded at less than a quarter of its current price.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Japan’s Nikkei Plunges 4.9% as AI Investment Concerns Trigger Technology Selloff

Japan’s Nikkei 225 has come under heavy selling pressure, falling 4.9% to close at 64,426 as concerns over the sustainability of massive artificial intelligence investments intensify. The decline marks the index’s largest one-day drop since March and highlights growing sensitivity across technology stocks to elevated valuations, financing costs and uncertainty surrounding the returns from AI infrastructure spending. Japanese technology companies are particularly exposed to the global AI investment cycle, leaving the market vulnerable to a reassessment of future growth expectations. Technology and AI-linked shares led the selloff, while losses across major banking stocks indicate that weakness has extended beyond the most directly exposed companies. The outlook now depends on whether investors view the decline as a repricing of elevated technology valuations or as the beginning of a broader deterioration in risk appetite. Persistent energy-driven inflation and the prospect of higher borrowing costs could add further pressure to equities if financing conditions tighten. Market Snapshot Nikkei 225: Fell 4.9% to close at 64,426. Market performance: The largest one-day decline since March. Technology sector: AI-linked stocks led losses amid concerns over the sustainability of AI investment spending and elevated valuations. Kioxia: Declined 12.5%. Advantest: Fell 14.2%. SoftBank Group: Dropped 8.9%. Taiyo Yuden: Lost 10%. Lasertec: Declined 13.3%. Banking sector: Mitsubishi UFJ fell 1.6%, Sumitomo Mitsui declined 1.7% and Mizuho Financial lost 2.7%. Technology Stocks Lead Japan’s Market Decline The sharp fall in the Nikkei reflects growing concern about the valuation and financing risks surrounding the AI investment boom. Japanese companies with exposure to semiconductor equipment, memory products and AI infrastructure have benefited from expectations of sustained spending, but those expectations can become a source of volatility when investors begin questioning the durability of future returns. Advantest fell 14.2%, while Kioxia declined 12.5% and Lasertec lost 13.3%. SoftBank Group dropped 8.9%, and Taiyo Yuden fell 10%, demonstrating the breadth of selling across technology-related names. The scale of these declines suggests that investors are reassessing the risks associated with concentrated exposure to the AI investment cycle. If expectations for infrastructure spending or future profitability weaken, companies priced for strong growth may face further valuation adjustments. However, a sharp single-session decline does not establish that AI investment itself is ending. The key question for the market is whether future earnings and cash flows can justify current valuations as the cost of capital and investor expectations evolve. Higher Borrowing Costs Add to Valuation Pressure Concerns about persistent energy-driven inflation have added another layer of uncertainty. If policymakers need to raise borrowing costs to contain inflation, higher financing expenses could weigh on companies investing heavily in data centres, semiconductors and other AI infrastructure. Technology companies with ambitious capital expenditure plans are particularly sensitive to changes in the cost of funding and the expected return on new investment. Higher interest rates can also reduce the present value investors assign to future earnings, potentially putting additional pressure on high-growth stocks. The effect is not limited to technology. Japanese banking shares also weakened, with Mitsubishi UFJ down 1.6%, Sumitomo Mitsui falling 1.7% and Mizuho Financial declining 2.7%. The banking-sector losses indicate that the selloff was not confined to semiconductor and AI-related shares. Further market direction may depend on how investors balance the potential effects of higher interest rates against concerns about economic growth, credit conditions and financial-market volatility. Bullish Scenario for the Nikkei 225 The Nikkei could stabilise if investors conclude that the latest selloff has sufficiently adjusted technology valuations without materially undermining the longer-term outlook for AI demand. Evidence that AI infrastructure spending remains resilient, corporate earnings expectations are holding up and inflation pressures are becoming more manageable could help restore confidence. A stabilisation in major semiconductor and technology shares would be particularly important given their contribution to the recent decline. Under this scenario, buyers may return selectively to companies with strong balance sheets, credible earnings prospects and demonstrable returns on investment. However, a durable recovery would likely require evidence that valuations are supported by fundamentals rather than investment enthusiasm alone. Bearish Scenario for the Nikkei 225 Further losses could develop if concerns over AI investment returns deepen or investors reduce exposure to high-valuation technology companies. Continued uncertainty about the cost of financing and the scale of future infrastructure spending could leave semiconductor-related shares vulnerable to additional repricing. The risk would increase if energy-driven inflation keeps borrowing costs elevated or prompts expectations of further monetary tightening. A broader deterioration in risk appetite could then spread beyond technology, affecting other Japanese equities and increasing volatility across regional markets. If major technology shares remain under pressure, the Nikkei may struggle to stabilise even if individual companies continue to report solid operating performance. The distinction between company earnings and the valuations investors are willing to pay will be central to the next phase of trading. Nikkei 225 Forecast: What Comes Next? The near-term outlook for Japanese equities remains uncertain following the 4.9% decline. The scale of the move highlights how sensitive the market has become to shifts in sentiment around AI investment, valuations and financing conditions. The next direction will depend on whether investors find evidence to support current earnings expectations and whether inflation and interest-rate concerns intensify. A stabilisation in technology stocks could help the broader index recover, while further reductions in AI-related growth expectations could extend the correction. Investors will also need to assess whether weakness remains concentrated in technology or broadens into other sectors. The performance of major semiconductor companies, changes in borrowing-cost expectations and developments in energy prices are likely to remain important influences on market sentiment. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next AI investment outlook: Monitor company guidance and spending plans for evidence that demand for AI infrastructure remains sustainable. Technology earnings: Assess whether expected earnings and cash flows justify elevated valuations across semiconductor and AI-linked companies. Inflation and interest rates: Watch for developments in energy-driven inflation and their implications for borrowing costs. Semiconductor shares: Track whether recent losses in Advantest, Kioxia and Lasertec spread further or begin to stabilise. Banking stocks: Monitor financial-sector performance for signs of broader changes in investor confidence and expectations for financing conditions. Global risk appetite: Changes in US technology shares and international equity sentiment may influence Japanese markets given their exposure to the global AI investment cycle. Currency Hedger View Sharp movements in Japanese equities can influence broader financial-market sentiment, including demand for the Japanese yen. However, the relationship between the Nikkei and USD/JPY is not automatic: currency movements also depend on relative interest rates, monetary policy expectations, capital flows and demand for safe-haven assets. Businesses with Japanese yen exposure should therefore avoid relying on equity-market direction alone when planning currency conversions. Companies making or receiving cross-border payments can monitor changes in interest-rate expectations and market volatility while assessing whether suitable hedging arrangements would help manage uncertainty in future cash flows. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Explore Currency Hedger or visit currencyhedger.com to learn more about managing international currency exposure. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Equity markets, foreign exchange and related financial instruments involve significant risk. Forecasts and market scenarios are conditional and may not materialise. Businesses and investors should assess their own circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

UK Economy Unexpectedly Grows in August as Manufacturing Offsets Services Stagnation

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% month-on-month in August 2026, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% contraction but slowing from growth of 0.4% in both June and July. Manufacturing and mining activity provided the main support, while services output stagnated and construction recorded another monthly decline. Annual GDP growth strengthened to 2.1%, its highest rate since October 2022, up from 1.8% in July and above forecasts of 1.7%. The figures provide a more resilient picture of the UK economy than markets anticipated, although the uneven performance across sectors raises questions about the strength and sustainability of growth. For currency markets, the data could offer some support to the British pound by reducing immediate concerns about economic contraction. However, the outlook will also depend on inflation, Bank of England policy expectations and whether the weakness in services and construction persists. Market Snapshot Monthly GDP: +0.1% in August, against expectations of a 0.1% contraction. Previous growth: Monthly expansion slowed from 0.4% in both June and July. Annual GDP: Growth accelerated to 2.1%, the strongest since October 2022. Production output: Increased 0.8%, supported by manufacturing and mining. Manufacturing: Rose 1.2%, providing a key contribution to production growth. Services: Recorded no overall growth as gains in wholesale and retail trade were offset by declines elsewhere. Construction: Fell 0.2%, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. UK Economic Outlook: Manufacturing Supports Growth as Services Stagnate The August GDP figures highlight an economy that is still expanding, but with momentum becoming increasingly uneven. Monthly growth of 0.1% was modest, yet the result exceeded expectations and suggests that economic activity remained more resilient than anticipated. Production output rose 0.8%, with manufacturing increasing 1.2% and mining and quarrying advancing 1.4%. These gains helped offset a 1.2% contraction in water supply, sewerage and waste management. Services output, which represents a major part of the UK economy, showed no growth. A 2% increase in wholesale and retail trade was offset by a 1.7% decline in administrative and support services and a 2.7% fall in food and beverage services. The lack of overall services growth suggests that stronger production has yet to translate into broad-based economic momentum. Construction remains another area of concern. Output declined 0.2%, extending its contraction to four consecutive months. New work fell 0.7%, while repair and maintenance increased 0.4%, leaving the sector under continued pressure. The stronger annual growth rate of 2.1% provides a more encouraging longer-term comparison. Nevertheless, the divergence between production, services and construction means that future GDP releases will be important in determining whether the economy is entering a more sustained recovery or simply experiencing uneven monthly fluctuations. Bullish Scenario: Stronger Growth Supports Sterling The pound could benefit if the stronger-than-expected GDP reading improves confidence in the UK's economic outlook. The return to positive monthly growth, combined with annual expansion of 2.1%, may reduce concerns that the economy is moving towards contraction. If manufacturing activity remains resilient and services output returns to growth, expectations for overall economic performance could improve. This may support sterling, particularly if stronger activity encourages markets to reassess the likelihood of interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England. Under this scenario, the pound could gain against currencies whose economies face weaker growth prospects. However, a sustained advance would likely require confirmation from subsequent economic releases rather than relying on one monthly GDP figure. Bearish Scenario: Weak Services and Construction Limit Recovery Sterling could come under renewed pressure if the weakness in services and construction proves persistent. These sectors' performance suggests that the economy continues to face underlying challenges despite stronger production output. If future data shows that household-facing services, business activity and construction remain subdued, the annual GDP improvement may offer limited reassurance about the outlook for domestic demand. A weaker growth trajectory could also increase expectations of monetary easing by the Bank of England, potentially reducing the pound's relative yield appeal. In this scenario, the August figures would be viewed as a temporary improvement rather than evidence of a broad-based economic recovery. British Pound Forecast: Modest Growth Offers Support, but Risks Remain The near-term outlook for sterling is cautiously balanced. The GDP figures exceeded market expectations and delivered a stronger annual growth rate, providing a potential source of support for the currency. However, monthly growth slowed sharply from the 0.4% recorded in June and July, while services stagnation and continued construction weakness highlight the economy's uneven performance. The pound's direction will depend on whether subsequent data confirms that economic momentum is stabilising. Stronger services activity and continued production growth could improve sentiment towards sterling. Conversely, further deterioration in domestic demand or a shift towards more accommodative Bank of England policy expectations could limit its gains. The August report therefore provides a positive surprise, but not yet clear evidence that the UK economy has entered a stronger and more sustainable growth phase. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Upcoming GDP releases: Further monthly growth will help determine whether August's positive result marks a stabilisation in economic activity. Services-sector performance: A return to growth would strengthen the case for a broader recovery, given the sector's importance to the UK economy. Manufacturing and production: Continued industrial resilience could help offset weakness elsewhere, while a reversal in production would increase downside risks. Construction activity: A fifth consecutive monthly decline would reinforce concerns about investment and building activity. Inflation and Bank of England policy: The interaction between economic growth and price pressures will influence expectations for future interest-rate decisions and sterling. Sterling market sentiment: Traders will assess the GDP figures alongside interest-rate differentials, global dollar movements and developments in other major economies. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger views the August GDP report as a modestly positive development for the UK outlook, with growth exceeding expectations and annual expansion reaching its strongest rate since October 2022. However, the absence of services growth and the continuing decline in construction suggest that the economy remains uneven rather than firmly established on a stronger growth path. Businesses with sterling exposure should monitor upcoming economic releases and Bank of England communications when assessing future exchange-rate risks. Companies receiving revenue in pounds or making payments to UK suppliers may benefit from considering alternative sterling scenarios when planning cash flow, budgeting costs and managing international currency exposure. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Explore Currency Hedger or visit currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Foreign exchange markets are subject to significant risk, and forecasts are conditional scenarios rather than guarantees of future performance. Businesses should assess their individual circumstances and risk exposure before making financial decisions.

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Energies

October 15, 2026

US and European Natural Gas Prices Rise as Storage Risks and Supply Disruptions Shape Outlook

Natural gas markets are facing contrasting regional dynamics, with US futures rising towards a three-week high ahead of the latest storage report, while European prices remain elevated amid concerns over winter inventories and disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. US natural gas is trading around $3.25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), supported by lower production and expectations that the storage surplus will narrow. However, forecasts for milder-than-normal weather and softer LNG export terminal demand are limiting gains. In Europe, prices near €87 per megawatt-hour reflect tighter supply conditions, geopolitical risks affecting Gulf shipments and the possibility of colder weather increasing heating demand. The coming sessions are likely to be shaped by inventory data, weather forecasts, production levels and the availability of international LNG cargoes. Market Snapshot US natural gas: Around $3.25/MMBtu, approaching a three-week high. US storage: Analysts expect the surplus over seasonal norms to narrow to 1.6%, from 2% previously. US production: Lower 48 output averages 110.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, below the August and September record of 113.3 bcfd. European natural gas: Around €87/MWh, the highest level since 2022. European storage: Approximately 74% full, below historical averages for this time of year. Key drivers: EIA storage data, weather forecasts, Gulf supply disruptions, Norwegian pipeline flows and LNG demand. US Natural Gas: Storage Data and Lower Production Support Prices US natural gas futures are approaching a three-week high as traders assess the latest balance between supply, demand and inventories. The EIA's weekly storage report is a key near-term catalyst, with analysts expecting the surplus above seasonal norms to decline to 1.6% for the week ended October 9. A narrowing surplus could indicate that the inventory balance is becoming less comfortable, potentially supporting prices. The market's reaction will depend on the reported change in storage and how it compares with expectations. Production is also providing some support. Lower 48 natural gas output has averaged 110.8 bcfd so far in October, below the record highs of 113.3 bcfd recorded in August and September. Hurricane-related shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico, force majeure events and pipeline disruptions across several states have contributed to the decline. If production remains below recent peaks, the market could become more sensitive to changes in demand and storage withdrawals as the heating season approaches. However, supply conditions remain only part of the picture. Average feedgas deliveries to the nine major US LNG export terminals have eased to 17.5 bcfd so far this month, from 17.9 bcfd in September. Lower feedgas demand reduces one source of support for US prices, particularly if domestic consumption also remains subdued. US Weather Outlook Limits the Upside Forecasts for mostly milder-than-normal weather across the United States through October 29 are limiting the bullish case for natural gas. Temperatures that reduce the need for heating or air conditioning could constrain consumption and offset some of the support from lower production. This creates a two-sided market. A smaller-than-expected storage surplus, continued production disruptions or a shift towards colder forecasts could encourage further gains. Conversely, mild weather combined with softer LNG feedgas demand could limit any sustained recovery. The EIA report may determine the immediate direction, but weather developments are likely to remain central to the broader short-term outlook. European Natural Gas: Winter Supply Risks Keep Prices Elevated European natural gas prices remain near €87/MWh as the market assesses supply risks ahead of winter. Concerns over shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified uncertainty around LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, a region accounting for around 20% of global LNG exports. Reduced availability of Gulf cargoes can increase competition among importers for alternative supplies, potentially raising spot prices and complicating Europe's efforts to replenish storage. European storage facilities are approximately 74% full, below historical averages for this time of year. This leaves the market sensitive to further supply interruptions or a sustained increase in heating demand as winter approaches. Updated weather forecasts pointing to a significant cold snap across northeastern Europe from next weekend add another potential source of upward pressure. If colder conditions materialise, heating demand could rise while storage inventories remain below typical seasonal levels. Norwegian pipeline supply has recovered, providing some relief to the European market. However, the extent to which additional pipeline deliveries can offset constrained LNG availability remains an important consideration. Bullish Scenario Natural gas prices could extend their gains if the US storage report indicates a greater-than-expected tightening in the inventory balance and production remains below recent record levels. In the United States, colder weather forecasts or a recovery in LNG feedgas deliveries could strengthen demand expectations and support futures. In Europe, the bullish scenario would be reinforced if Gulf shipping disruptions persist, storage replenishment remains challenging or the forecast cold spell increases heating demand. Competition for alternative LNG cargoes could then intensify, keeping European prices elevated. Bearish Scenario The US market could come under pressure if the storage report shows a smaller-than-expected reduction in the surplus, particularly if mild weather continues to limit heating and cooling demand. A recovery in production and further easing in LNG feedgas deliveries could add to downward pressure by increasing available domestic supply relative to consumption. For Europe, a sustained recovery in Norwegian pipeline deliveries, reduced shipping disruption risks or a milder weather outlook could ease concerns about winter supply. If these developments improve the perceived inventory balance, some of the risk premium currently reflected in prices could diminish. Nevertheless, the European market remains exposed to uncertainty around LNG availability and winter demand. Natural Gas Price Forecast The near-term outlook is cautiously bullish for European natural gas because of below-average storage levels, geopolitical supply risks and the potential for colder weather. The strength and duration of any price advance will depend on whether LNG disruptions persist and whether alternative supplies can meet demand. The US outlook is more balanced. Lower production and the prospect of a narrowing storage surplus support prices, but mild weather and reduced LNG feedgas deliveries limit the upside. The EIA report is likely to provide the immediate catalyst, while subsequent weather updates will help determine whether gains can be sustained. The divergence between the two markets highlights the importance of regional supply structures. US prices are being influenced heavily by domestic production, storage and weather, while European prices are more directly exposed to international LNG competition and the security of winter supply. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next EIA storage report: Compare the actual inventory change with expectations and assess whether the surplus over seasonal norms narrows as anticipated. US production: Watch for a recovery towards recent record levels or continued disruption-related weakness. US weather forecasts: Any shift towards colder conditions could increase heating demand, while persistent mild weather may cap consumption. LNG feedgas deliveries: A rebound from the current 17.5 bcfd average could strengthen US demand. European storage levels: With inventories around 74% full, the pace of replenishment remains important ahead of winter. Strait of Hormuz shipping: Changes in shipping conditions could influence the availability and cost of LNG cargoes. Norwegian pipeline supply: Continued recovery could ease some of Europe's supply constraints. Northeastern European temperatures: Confirmation or moderation of the forecast cold snap could influence heating demand and short-term price direction. Currency Hedger View Natural gas markets are entering a period in which weather, inventories and supply security are likely to have an outsized influence on price direction. US futures have some support from lower production and the prospect of a narrowing storage surplus, but mild weather and softer LNG demand create a significant counterweight. Europe faces a different risk profile, with below-average storage, competition for LNG and potential cold-weather demand keeping prices elevated. Businesses exposed to energy costs, international commodity transactions or foreign-currency payments should monitor both energy prices and exchange-rate movements, as changes in either can affect procurement budgets and cash-flow planning. The key near-term signals are the US storage report, subsequent weather forecasts and developments affecting European LNG availability. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or learn more at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Natural gas markets are volatile and subject to weather, geopolitical, supply and demand risks. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and may change as new information becomes available.

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October 15, 2026

Soybean Prices Hit Seven-Week Low as US Harvest Pressure Builds

Soybean futures are trading around $12.70 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in seven weeks as the accelerating US harvest increases near-term supply expectations. Despite renewed Chinese demand for American soybeans, the market remains under pressure as favourable harvesting conditions support fieldwork and traders assess the outlook for domestic processing. The balance between expanding harvest availability, Chinese export demand and upcoming US crush data is likely to shape the next move in soybean prices. While export commitments provide support, the market may need stronger evidence of sustained demand to offset the pressure from seasonal supply. Market Snapshot Soybean futures: Around $12.70 per bushel Price trend: Seven-week low US harvest progress: 46% complete, ahead of the 44% average estimate Chinese demand: Government buyers booked 8–10 cargoes of US soybeans for shipment from December onward US export sales: USDA confirmed private sales of 470,000 tonnes to China Upcoming data: September US soybean crush figures from NOPA US Harvest Progress Increases Supply Pressure Mostly dry conditions across the US Midwest have allowed farmers to accelerate harvesting after earlier rainfall delays. With 46% of the crop harvested, progress is ahead of the estimated 44% average, increasing the amount of new-crop supply becoming available to the market. Although midweek rainfall has slowed fieldwork in some areas, drier conditions are forecast in the coming days. If this weather pattern persists, harvesting could continue to advance, reinforcing expectations of greater near-term soybean availability. This seasonal supply pressure is a key factor weighing on prices. Unless demand strengthens sufficiently to absorb the additional crop, futures may remain vulnerable to further downside. Chinese Buying Offers a Demand-Side Counterweight Chinese purchasing activity is providing an important source of support. Government buyers have booked between eight and ten cargoes of US soybeans for shipment from December onward, while the USDA has confirmed private sales of 470,000 tonnes to China. These transactions demonstrate renewed buying interest and could help limit the impact of harvest-driven selling. Continued Chinese demand would be particularly significant if additional export sales emerge as the US crop moves through the remainder of the harvest season. However, the sustainability of this support will depend on whether further purchases follow. If export demand slows while harvesting continues at an accelerated pace, the market could remain exposed to downward pressure. US Soybean Crush Data in Focus Traders are awaiting September soybean crush data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). Analysts expect processing to fall to 203.737 million bushels, which would represent a one-year low. The report will provide an important indication of domestic processing demand. A lower-than-expected crush figure could reinforce concerns about near-term demand, particularly while harvest availability is increasing. Soyoil stocks are also attracting attention, with end-of-month inventories projected at 1.116 billion pounds, their lowest level since November 2024. Tighter soyoil inventories could offer support to the broader soybean complex, although the overall price response will depend on the balance between processing demand, product inventories and incoming crop supplies. Bullish Scenario Soybean prices could stabilise if Chinese purchasing continues and additional US export sales are confirmed. Stronger-than-expected crush figures would also help demonstrate that domestic demand is absorbing available supplies. Lower soyoil stocks could provide another supportive factor, particularly if demand for soybean oil strengthens and improves processing economics. Under this scenario, the seven-week low could attract renewed buying interest. However, a sustained recovery would likely require evidence that demand can offset the continued arrival of the US harvest. Bearish Scenario The bearish outlook would strengthen if favourable weather allows US harvesting to advance more quickly than expected, increasing near-term supply availability. If Chinese purchases fail to generate a sustained improvement in export demand, prices could remain under pressure. A weaker-than-expected NOPA crush report would add to concerns about domestic demand, particularly if processing falls toward or below the forecast of 203.737 million bushels. With soybean futures already at a seven-week low, a continued deterioration in demand expectations could leave the market vulnerable to further losses. Soybean Price Forecast The near-term outlook remains cautious, with harvest pressure currently outweighing the support from renewed Chinese buying. The direction of the next move is likely to depend on whether export demand and domestic processing can absorb the increasing availability of newly harvested soybeans. A stabilisation becomes more plausible if Chinese purchases continue, US export sales remain firm and crush data exceed expectations. Conversely, sustained favourable harvesting conditions combined with weaker export or processing demand could keep prices under pressure. The key distinction is whether the current decline reflects a temporary seasonal supply adjustment or a broader weakening in demand relative to available supplies. Upcoming trade and processing data should help clarify that balance. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next US harvest progress: Further advances under dry conditions could increase near-term supply pressure. Chinese export demand: Additional purchases and confirmed sales will be important indicators of sustained buying interest. NOPA soybean crush: The September report will help assess domestic processing demand against the forecast of 203.737 million bushels. Soyoil inventories: Projected stocks of 1.116 billion pounds could influence sentiment across the soybean complex. Weather developments: Continued dry conditions may accelerate harvesting, while renewed rainfall could slow fieldwork and alter the pace of supply entering the market. Currency Hedger View Soybeans remain caught between seasonal supply expansion and renewed international demand. The accelerating US harvest is creating downward pressure, while Chinese purchases and potentially supportive soyoil inventory levels offer a counterbalance. For the coming sessions, the focus should remain on the interaction between export demand, domestic processing and harvest progress. A sustained price recovery would require evidence that demand is keeping pace with incoming supplies, while further deterioration in demand expectations could leave futures exposed to additional weakness. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or learn more at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Commodity futures involve significant risk, and prices can move unpredictably. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional on evolving market, weather, supply and demand factors.

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October 15, 2026

Palm Oil Price Forecast: Record Inventories Weigh on Prices as Export Demand Improves

Malaysian palm oil futures are facing renewed selling pressure, slipping below MYR 4,700 per tonne as rising inventories and weakness in competing edible oils weigh on market sentiment. Lower crude oil prices are also reducing palm oil’s relative appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. However, stronger export shipments and expectations of sustained festive demand from India are helping limit losses. Looking ahead, palm oil prices will depend on whether improving export demand can absorb seasonal production and gradually ease Malaysia’s elevated stock levels. Market Snapshot Price trend: Malaysian palm oil futures retreat below MYR 4,700 per tonne. Inventory pressure: Malaysian palm oil stocks reach 3.51 million tonnes in September, a record high. Production outlook: Seasonal production has contributed to the accumulation of inventories. Export demand: Early-October shipments rise by an estimated 33.5%–37.7% compared with the same period in September. Biodiesel demand: Lower crude oil prices reduce the relative attractiveness of palm oil as a feedstock. Near-term outlook: Cautious, with high inventories competing against improving export demand. What Is Driving Palm Oil Prices? Record Inventories Keep Supply Pressure Elevated Malaysia’s palm oil inventories climbed to 3.51 million tonnes in September, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The increase reflects the impact of seasonal production and leaves the market with a substantial volume of available supply. Elevated inventories can weigh on prices because buyers have less urgency to secure additional supplies when stocks are abundant. Producers may also face pressure to remain competitive in export markets, particularly if output continues to exceed the pace of consumption. The central question is whether exports and domestic consumption can absorb enough of the available supply to prevent stocks from rising further. A sustained reduction in inventories would improve the market balance, while another increase could reinforce downward pressure. Production trends will remain important in the coming weeks. If seasonal output begins to moderate while exports strengthen, the inventory overhang could gradually ease. If production remains elevated, however, stronger shipments may not be sufficient to tighten the market quickly. Stronger Export Shipments Offer Support Export demand is providing a more constructive signal. Cargo surveyors estimate that Malaysian palm oil shipments increased by 33.5%–37.7% during the first ten days of October compared with the same period in September. If this pace is sustained, stronger exports could help draw down inventories and reduce the pressure created by abundant domestic supply. Export performance is particularly important when production is seasonally high, as the balance between output and shipments determines whether stocks continue to accumulate. However, early-month shipment figures do not necessarily establish a lasting improvement in demand. The market will need to see whether the stronger pace continues throughout October and translates into a meaningful reduction in Malaysian inventories. India’s Festive Demand Could Support Consumption India remains an important destination for palm oil, and expectations of sustained festive buying are helping cushion the market against supply concerns. Seasonal purchasing can support import demand as refiners and distributors secure edible oils for consumption. If Indian buyers maintain their buying pace, Malaysian exporters could benefit from stronger shipment volumes. Nevertheless, India’s demand for palm oil is influenced by relative prices, competing edible oils, domestic stocks and the economics of importing. If soybean oil or other alternatives become more attractive, buyers may adjust their purchasing mix. The strength and consistency of Indian import demand will therefore be a key factor in determining whether exports can absorb Malaysia’s large inventory overhang. Competing Edible Oils and Crude Oil Add Downside Pressure Weaker edible oils on China’s Dalian exchange are contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding palm oil. Vegetable oils compete across food manufacturing and other applications, so price movements in competing products can influence buyers’ preferences and the relative competitiveness of palm oil. Lower crude oil prices are adding another headwind by reducing the relative appeal of vegetable oils as biodiesel feedstocks. When fossil fuels become cheaper, the economic incentive to use vegetable oils for biofuel production can weaken, depending on policy support and production costs. If crude oil and competing edible oils remain under pressure, palm oil may struggle to sustain a recovery unless export demand improves sufficiently or Malaysian stocks begin to decline. China’s Economic Signals Remain Mixed China’s strong September trade surplus and import growth point to resilient activity in parts of the economy, particularly industrial production and technology-related demand. However, these figures do not necessarily indicate a broad-based recovery in household consumption. For palm oil, the distinction matters because demand depends on food consumption, industrial uses and broader purchasing activity rather than trade performance alone. A sustained improvement in Chinese domestic demand could provide additional support, but the current signals offer limited certainty about the strength of edible-oil consumption. Bullish Scenario: Exports Reduce the Inventory Overhang Palm oil prices could recover if strong early-October shipments persist and festive buying from India remains firm. Higher exports would help absorb seasonal production and could begin reducing Malaysia’s elevated stocks. A slowdown in production growth would strengthen this scenario by improving the balance between supply and demand. Firmer competing edible-oil prices or a recovery in crude oil could also improve palm oil’s relative competitiveness. Under these conditions, the market could regain upward momentum as traders gain confidence that record inventories are beginning to decline. Bearish Scenario: Stocks Continue to Accumulate The bearish scenario would strengthen if Malaysian production remains elevated while export demand loses momentum. With inventories already at 3.51 million tonnes, further stock accumulation could reinforce concerns about oversupply. Weakness in China’s competing edible oils and lower crude oil prices could add pressure by reducing palm oil’s relative attractiveness for food and biodiesel applications. If Indian festive demand falls short of expectations, export growth may also prove insufficient to absorb available supply. Under this scenario, palm oil futures could remain under pressure below the MYR 4,700-per-tonne area, with further weakness possible if inventory data continue to deteriorate. Palm Oil Price Forecast Short-term outlook: Cautious, with elevated inventories limiting recovery potential. The balance of risks remains sensitive to the pace of Malaysian exports and the direction of inventory levels. Record stocks create a significant supply-side headwind, while stronger shipments and seasonal buying from India offer a potential route towards market stabilisation. A sustained price recovery would be more convincing if export growth translates into falling inventories and production begins to moderate. Conversely, continued stock accumulation, weaker competing edible oils and low crude oil prices would leave the market vulnerable to further declines. The key signal to watch is whether export demand can consistently outpace the supply entering the market. Until inventory levels show a clearer downward trend, rallies may face resistance from the availability of existing stocks. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Malaysian inventory data: Whether stocks fall from the September record of 3.51 million tonnes. Export shipment estimates: Whether October’s initial improvement is sustained throughout the month. Seasonal production: Whether output growth moderates as the market moves beyond peak production. Indian import demand: Whether festive buying translates into stronger and sustained purchases. China’s edible-oil market: Whether competing vegetable oils recover or continue to weaken. Crude oil prices: Whether changes in fossil-fuel prices affect the relative economics of biodiesel feedstocks. China’s domestic consumption: Whether economic activity broadens beyond industrial and technology-related demand. Currency Hedger View Palm oil demonstrates how inventory levels, seasonal production and export demand can drive commodity prices independently of broader financial-market sentiment. For food manufacturers, edible-oil importers and international traders, changes in palm oil prices can influence procurement costs, working capital and operating margins. Businesses purchasing palm oil across borders should also consider the currency used for supplier payments. Changes in exchange rates can amplify or offset movements in the underlying commodity price, making coordinated commodity and foreign exchange risk management relevant when planning future purchases. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore our website at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity markets involve significant risk, and forecasts are conditional rather than guaranteed outcomes. Businesses and investors should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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October 15, 2026

Copper Price Forecast: Mining Disruptions Support Prices as Fed Concerns Weigh on Demand

Copper futures are facing renewed selling pressure, moving towards $6.50 per pound after extending losses for a third consecutive session. Stronger-than-expected US inflation has increased concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes, raising the risk that higher borrowing costs could weaken industrial activity and metals consumption. However, supply disruptions across Chile, the world’s largest copper-producing country, could limit the downside. At the same time, demand from data centres, semiconductor manufacturing and battery energy storage continues to provide longer-term support for copper. Market Snapshot Copper price: Moving towards $6.50 per pound. Market trend: Three consecutive sessions of losses. Primary bearish driver: US inflation and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Supply-side support: Labour disputes and adverse weather affecting Chilean mining operations. Structural demand: Data centres, semiconductor manufacturing and battery energy storage systems. Near-term outlook: Cautious, with demand concerns competing against tightening supply. What Is Driving Copper Prices? Federal Reserve Expectations Weigh on Industrial Demand Copper is highly sensitive to the outlook for global industrial activity because it is widely used in construction, electrical infrastructure, manufacturing and power generation. Stronger-than-expected US inflation has reinforced concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain restrictive monetary conditions for longer or consider additional rate increases. Higher borrowing costs can discourage investment, slow construction activity and increase financing costs for industrial businesses. This creates a potential headwind for copper consumption, particularly if tighter financial conditions spread across major economies. A stronger US dollar could also make dollar-priced metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies. However, the impact on copper demand will depend on the extent to which economic activity actually slows. Persistent infrastructure investment and electrification projects could help offset weakness in more interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Chilean Mining Disruptions Tighten Supply Risks Supply-side developments are providing an important counterweight to the bearish macroeconomic outlook. Labour strikes have affected operations at BHP Group’s Escondida mine and Antofagasta’s Centinela mine, while adverse weather has disrupted Codelco’s El Teniente open-pit operations. Chile is central to the global copper market, meaning prolonged interruptions at major mines can affect production availability and reinforce concerns about supply reliability. The price impact will depend on the duration and severity of these disruptions, the availability of replacement supply and whether affected operations return to normal. If interruptions persist, tighter mine output could limit further price declines even if demand expectations deteriorate. Conversely, a rapid resolution of labour disputes and improved operating conditions could ease supply concerns and leave prices more exposed to macroeconomic weakness. Data Centres and Electrification Support Long-Term Demand Copper continues to benefit from its role in electricity transmission, power distribution, electronics and industrial equipment. The expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is adding another source of potential demand, particularly through data-centre construction, electrical systems and supporting power networks. Semiconductor manufacturing and battery energy storage systems also require copper-intensive infrastructure. As investment in computing capacity, electrification and grid development expands, these sectors could support consumption over the longer term. Nevertheless, structural demand growth does not guarantee immediate price appreciation. Short-term prices remain sensitive to inventories, industrial purchasing, manufacturing activity and the pace at which new infrastructure projects translate into actual copper consumption. Bullish Scenario: Supply Constraints Limit the Downside Copper could recover if mining disruptions in Chile persist and reduce the availability of refined metal. Any evidence of tightening inventories or stronger physical buying would reinforce the potential for supply constraints to support prices. Demand from data centres, grid infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing and energy storage could provide additional support, particularly if investment remains resilient despite restrictive monetary conditions. A softer US dollar and reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening would strengthen this scenario by improving the broader outlook for industrial metals. Under these conditions, copper could regain upward momentum as the market places greater emphasis on supply risks and long-term demand growth. Bearish Scenario: Higher Rates Weaken Consumption The bearish scenario would become more likely if US inflation remains persistent and markets increasingly anticipate further monetary tightening. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on construction, manufacturing and industrial investment, reducing demand for copper. If global economic indicators deteriorate while Chilean mining operations recover, the market could face pressure from both weaker consumption expectations and improving supply availability. A stronger US dollar and rising inventories would add to the downside risk. Under this scenario, copper could extend its recent decline below the $6.50-per-pound area, although the extent of any move would depend on subsequent supply and demand developments. Copper Price Forecast Short-term outlook: Cautious, with a two-sided risk profile. Copper’s immediate direction is likely to depend on whether macroeconomic concerns or physical supply constraints exert the greater influence on prices. The latest decline reflects concerns that persistent US inflation could keep interest rates higher and weaken industrial demand. However, disruptions at major Chilean mines could limit the market’s ability to sustain a deeper selloff. A recovery in industrial demand, continued mining interruptions or improving expectations for global infrastructure investment would favour a rebound. By contrast, weaker manufacturing activity, a stronger dollar and a return to normal mine production would increase downside risks. The $6.50-per-pound area is an important near-term reference point, but the next sustained move will require confirmation from physical-market conditions, industrial demand indicators and developments in US monetary policy. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Chile’s mining operations: Whether strikes and weather disruptions continue to affect production at major mines. US inflation and Federal Reserve policy: Whether inflation keeps the prospect of further rate increases alive. Global manufacturing activity: New evidence of industrial demand strength or weakness. Copper inventories: Changes in available stocks that may signal tightening or loosening physical-market conditions. China’s industrial demand: Construction, manufacturing and infrastructure activity remain important influences on global copper consumption. Data-centre investment: Whether AI infrastructure and electricity-network spending continue to expand. US dollar movements: Further dollar strength could create an additional headwind for dollar-priced copper. Currency Hedger View Copper’s outlook highlights the interaction between industrial demand, mining supply and global macroeconomic conditions. For manufacturers, construction companies and businesses purchasing copper-intensive equipment, price volatility can affect procurement costs, margins and budgeting. Companies with international supply chains should also consider how exchange-rate movements interact with commodity prices. A change in the US dollar can influence the local-currency cost of copper purchases, even when the quoted commodity price remains unchanged. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore our website at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity markets involve significant risk, and forecasts are conditional rather than guaranteed outcomes. Businesses and investors should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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October 15, 2026

Sugar Price Forecast: Brazil Harvest Disruptions and El Niño Risks Support Prices

Sugar prices remain caught between tightening global supply expectations and the risk of a correction following a sharp rally. New York March 2027 raw sugar futures fell 1.28% to settle at 20.82 cents per pound, while December London white sugar futures declined 1.25% to $553 per tonne, as a stronger US dollar triggered selling pressure. Despite the pullback, the underlying supply outlook remains supportive. Heavy rainfall in Brazil's Center-South region has disrupted sugarcane harvesting and mill operations, while concerns about a potentially strong El Niño are raising questions about production prospects in Brazil, India and Thailand. Forecasts pointing towards a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 are also helping underpin prices. The market's next direction will depend on whether production risks and improving supply expectations outweigh speculative liquidation and the possibility of weaker demand. Market Snapshot New York raw sugar, March 2027: Down 1.28% to approximately 20.82 cents/lb. London white sugar, December 2026: Down 1.25% to approximately $553/tonne. Brazil: Rainfall disrupting harvesting and sugarcane crushing in the Center-South region. Thailand: Industry forecasts indicate the potential for a significant year-on-year production decline. Global balance: The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 deficit of approximately 200,000 tonnes. Key risks: El Niño, harvest disruption, fund positioning and the US dollar. Brazil's Sugarcane Harvest and Mill Production Brazil remains the most influential producer in the global sugar market, making conditions in its Center-South region particularly important for price direction. Persistent rainfall has slowed harvesting and disrupted sugarcane crushing at mills, restricting the flow of cane into processing facilities. When mills cannot operate at their normal pace, sugar output can be delayed even when the underlying crop remains available. The disruption is particularly significant following reports that Center-South sugar production fell 26.3% year on year to 3.903 million tonnes in June. Although individual monthly figures do not determine the full-season outcome, the decline highlights how operational interruptions can affect near-term availability. The allocation of cane between sugar and ethanol is another important variable. When energy prices rise, mills may have greater incentive to direct more cane towards ethanol production, depending on relative returns, contracts and processing economics. This can reduce the volume of sugar produced from a given cane crop. If harvesting delays persist or mills favour ethanol, the supply outlook could tighten further. Conversely, improving weather and a recovery in crushing activity could allow production to catch up, limiting the scope for additional price gains. El Niño and Global Production Risks Weather remains one of the largest uncertainties facing the sugar market. Forecasts of a potentially strong El Niño have raised concerns about rainfall patterns and temperature extremes across major producing regions. Brazil, India and Thailand are particularly important because of their contribution to global sugar production and exports. Adverse weather can affect cane growth, sucrose content, harvesting schedules and mill utilisation, with consequences that may extend across several crop cycles. The impact will not necessarily be uniform. El Niño can produce different rainfall outcomes across regions, and the eventual effect on sugar output depends on the timing, intensity and duration of weather anomalies. Forecasts therefore represent a production risk rather than confirmation that yields will decline. India's monsoon performance has already raised concerns. The India Meteorological Department reported cumulative June–September rainfall 12.6% below normal as of September 30, the weakest seasonal result in 11 years. The consequences for sugar output will depend on regional rainfall distribution, irrigation availability and crop conditions. Thailand also faces potential production pressure. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected that 2026/27 output could fall 17% year on year to 10 million tonnes. A decline of that magnitude would matter for the export market because Thailand is one of the world's largest sugar exporters. If weather risks materialise across several producing countries simultaneously, the market could face a tighter exportable surplus even if some regions achieve satisfactory harvests. India: Domestic Supply and Import Demand India's position is particularly important because it is both a major sugar producer and a significant participant in international trade. The country has previously restricted exports when domestic production has been insufficient to meet internal requirements. Its decision to permit up to one million tonnes of raw sugar imports without taxes until October 31 signals concern about domestic supply availability and the need to balance local demand against production. The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association has also revised its 2025/26 production estimate to 32 million tonnes, down from 32.4 million tonnes, and projected exports of 800,000 tonnes. If domestic output falls short of consumption and India needs to import additional supplies, international prices could receive support. However, import demand will depend on domestic stock levels, government policy, world prices and the timing of purchases. For global traders, India's policy decisions can have an outsized effect because even modest changes in its export availability or import requirements can alter the balance of tradeable sugar. Global Sugar Balance: Surplus or Deficit? The transition from an expected surplus to a potential deficit is central to the bullish longer-term argument. The International Sugar Organization forecasts record global production of approximately 182 million tonnes for 2025/26, up 3.5% year on year, with a surplus of 1.1 million tonnes. This would represent a recovery from the previous season's deficit. For 2026/27, however, the ISO expects production to fall by around 1% to 180.1 million tonnes and projects a deficit of approximately 200,000 tonnes. This would leave the market more vulnerable to production disruptions or stronger-than-expected consumption. Other organisations have issued differing estimates. StoneX has projected a larger 2026/27 deficit of 1.7 million tonnes, while Covrig Analytics has also highlighted a deterioration in the supply outlook. Forecast differences reflect uncertainty about production, weather and the allocation of sugarcane between sugar and ethanol. The USDA's outlook is more mixed. It has forecast lower global production in 2026/27 but also anticipates an increase in ending stocks. This distinction is important: a projected production decline does not automatically mean that available supplies will become scarce if inventories remain sufficient to cover consumption. The market will therefore need to monitor revisions to production, consumption and stock estimates rather than relying on a single deficit forecast. Speculative Positioning and the US Dollar The latest price decline followed a rally in the US Dollar Index to a 1.5-year high. A stronger dollar can weigh on dollar-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies. It can also encourage traders to reduce exposure to commodity futures. Fund positioning presents an additional risk. The latest reported Commitment of Traders data showed that funds increased their net-long position in New York sugar futures by 60,442 contracts in the week ended October 6, bringing the total to 212,559 contracts, the highest level in more than three years. Such positioning can amplify price movements in either direction. If supply concerns continue to dominate, substantial long exposure may reinforce upward momentum. If sentiment turns, however, traders may liquidate positions simultaneously, intensifying a correction even without a major deterioration in physical fundamentals. The recent decline therefore does not necessarily invalidate the supply-driven bullish case. It does show that speculative positioning and currency movements can temporarily overwhelm fundamental support. Bullish Scenario Sugar could resume its advance if physical supply tightens and the expected global balance deteriorates further. Key bullish factors include: Continued Brazilian harvest disruption: Persistent rainfall could delay crushing and restrict near-term sugar availability. Adverse El Niño impacts: Poor rainfall distribution or extreme temperatures could reduce output in Brazil, India and Thailand. Lower Thai production: A significant decline in Thai output could reduce export availability and tighten the international market. Greater Indian import demand: Domestic shortages could lead to additional purchases from international suppliers. Higher ethanol returns: Strong energy prices could encourage Brazilian mills to allocate more cane to ethanol rather than sugar. A weaker US dollar: Dollar depreciation could improve the relative affordability of sugar for international buyers and ease some financial-market pressure. If several of these factors occur together, the market could move from a relatively balanced position towards a more meaningful supply deficit. Bearish Scenario The downside case centres on improved production, adequate inventories and continued speculative liquidation. Potential bearish factors include: Weather improvement in Brazil: Better harvesting conditions could allow mills to recover lost production. A less severe El Niño impact: If major producing regions avoid significant crop damage, current supply concerns could prove overstated. A stronger US dollar: Continued appreciation could maintain pressure on dollar-denominated sugar futures. Fund liquidation: The large speculative net-long position leaves the market vulnerable to further selling. Persistent global surplus stocks: Existing inventories could offset lower production and reduce the urgency of commercial buying. Weaker consumption: Slower demand from food manufacturers and other industrial users could limit the effect of tighter supply. Under this scenario, sugar could give back more of its recent gains as traders reassess the likelihood and scale of a global deficit. Sugar Price Forecast The medium-term outlook remains cautiously constructive, but the recent rally has increased the market's sensitivity to negative developments. Near-term prices may remain volatile as traders balance Brazilian weather disruptions against a strong dollar and elevated speculative positioning. Further liquidation could extend the correction even if the underlying supply outlook remains supportive. Over the coming months, the focus will shift towards actual sugarcane crushing, export availability, Indian trade policy and updated production estimates. Confirmation of declining output across multiple producing regions would strengthen the case for higher prices. Conversely, a recovery in Brazilian processing activity and evidence that global inventories are sufficient to cover consumption could limit the upside. Overall forecast: Sugar retains a potentially supportive medium-term supply outlook, but the market is vulnerable to sharp corrections. A sustained bullish trend will require confirmation from production and trade data, rather than weather forecasts and speculative positioning alone. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Brazilian crushing data: Monitor Center-South sugar production, cane processing and the sugar-versus-ethanol mix. Weather developments: Track rainfall and temperature forecasts across Brazil, India and Thailand. Indian trade policy: Watch import requirements, export permissions and domestic production estimates. Thai production forecasts: Revisions to output and export availability could materially affect the global balance. Global stock estimates: Compare updates from the ISO, USDA and private analysts to determine whether the expected deficit is widening. Fund positioning: Monitor changes in speculative net-long exposure for signs of further liquidation risk. US dollar and crude oil: Currency movements influence commodity pricing, while energy prices can affect Brazilian mills' ethanol production incentives. Currency Hedger View Sugar prices reflect a combination of agricultural production, weather, energy markets and global trade. For sugar producers, importers, food manufacturers and other businesses operating internationally, exchange-rate volatility can add another layer of uncertainty to commodity purchasing and sales. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Currency Hedger Visit CurrencyHedger.com Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell sugar futures or other financial instruments. Commodity markets can be highly volatile, and leveraged trading can result in substantial losses. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and are not guarantees of future performance.

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October 15, 2026

Cotton Price Forecast: Harvest Progress and Global Supply Shape the Market Outlook

Cotton futures are showing a mixed trend across the forward curve, with nearby contracts gaining ground while some deferred contracts remain under pressure. The market is balancing progress in the US harvest against crop conditions, global cotton demand, competing agricultural commodities and movements in crude oil and the US dollar. December 2026 cotton futures are trading around 80.66 cents per pound, while March 2027 contracts stand at 84.00 cents and May 2027 at 85.69 cents. The strength in nearby prices suggests some support for current demand and supply expectations, but the weaker performance in parts of the deferred curve indicates that the market remains cautious about the longer-term balance. Market Snapshot December 2026 cotton: 80.66 cents/lb, up 15 points. March 2027 cotton: 84.00 cents/lb, up 17 points. May 2027 cotton: 85.69 cents/lb, up 21 points. US crop with bolls open: 82%. US harvest progress: 31%, two percentage points ahead of normal. Texas harvest progress: 38%, four percentage points ahead of normal. US crop rated good/excellent: 34%, up two percentage points on the week. Cotlook A Index: 91.25 cents/lb, up 10 points. Crude oil is also providing a potential source of support for cotton through its influence on synthetic fibre costs, while a stronger US dollar can make US agricultural exports less competitive for overseas buyers. US Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions The US cotton harvest is advancing ahead of the normal seasonal pace. With 82% of the crop having opened bolls and 31% harvested, the market is moving further into the period when actual harvested volumes and fibre quality become increasingly important. Texas, the largest US cotton-producing state, has reached 38% harvested, four percentage points ahead of its normal pace. Faster harvesting can improve visibility over the size and quality of the crop, reducing some of the uncertainty that can support prices during earlier stages of the growing season. However, the latest crop-condition assessment offers a more nuanced picture. The proportion of the crop rated good or excellent has increased by two percentage points to 34%, while the Brugler500 index has recovered two points to 292. These improvements suggest a modestly more favourable assessment of crop conditions, although the overall rating still warrants attention as harvesting progresses. The key question for prices is whether the final harvested crop meets expectations for both quantity and quality. A larger-than-anticipated supply could weigh on futures, while disappointing yields or fibre quality could tighten availability and provide support. Physical Cotton Demand and Export Competitiveness The physical market offers additional signals about the balance between supply and demand. The Cotlook A Index has risen to 91.25 cents per pound, indicating strength in the benchmark price for physical cotton. Meanwhile, The Seam reported 675 bales sold at an average of 74.80 cents per pound. These indicators should be interpreted carefully because they reflect different market segments, pricing conventions and transaction conditions. Nevertheless, physical-market pricing remains important when assessing whether futures movements are supported by underlying commercial demand. ICE certified cotton stocks remain at 17,756 bales, unchanged in the latest reported assessment. This is a relatively narrow measure of deliverable exchange stocks rather than a complete picture of global inventories. Broader supply conditions depend on US production, export availability, inventories held in consuming countries and the pace of mill purchases. The Adjusted World Price has fallen by another 135 points to 63.81 cents per pound. This measure is relevant to the US cotton support framework and can influence producer marketing incentives, but it should not be confused with the futures price or the Cotlook A Index. For a sustained recovery in cotton, stronger physical demand and export sales would provide more convincing confirmation than futures gains alone. Crude Oil, the US Dollar and Synthetic Fibre Competition Crude oil has gained $1.03 per barrel, potentially offering indirect support to cotton. Petroleum is a key feedstock for synthetic fibres such as polyester, meaning sustained increases in oil and petrochemical prices can raise the relative cost of competing materials. The relationship is not automatic. Polyester pricing also depends on petrochemical margins, manufacturing capacity, inventories and demand from the textile industry. Cotton prices will therefore need to reflect the balance between natural-fibre availability and the cost and availability of synthetic alternatives. The US dollar index has also strengthened by 0.326 points. A firmer dollar can make US cotton more expensive for overseas buyers when priced in their domestic currencies, potentially weighing on export competitiveness if the move persists. The combination of higher crude oil and a stronger dollar presents mixed signals. Oil may support cotton's competitiveness against synthetic fibres, while dollar strength could complicate export demand. Actual export sales and textile-mill purchasing activity will help determine which influence becomes more significant. Bullish Scenario Cotton could extend its recovery if physical demand improves while supply expectations become less comfortable. Key bullish factors include: Stronger physical prices: Continued gains in the Cotlook A Index could indicate firmer underlying market conditions. Harvest-related uncertainty: Adverse weather, lower-than-expected yields or quality problems could reduce the amount of commercially usable cotton available. Higher synthetic fibre costs: Sustained increases in crude oil and petrochemical prices could improve cotton's relative competitiveness. Improving export demand: Stronger overseas buying and export sales would help absorb US production. Tighter deliverable supply: A sustained reduction in available stocks could reinforce nearby price support. If these factors combine, nearby contracts may retain their relative strength and the market could begin to reassess the balance between the incoming crop and consumption. Bearish Scenario The downside case centres on the prospect of adequate production coinciding with insufficient textile demand. Potential bearish factors include: Faster harvesting: Progress ahead of normal could bring additional supply into the market sooner than expected. Improving crop conditions: Better ratings may reduce concerns about production losses, provided they translate into favourable yields and quality. Weak textile demand: Cautious consumer spending or subdued apparel orders could limit mill purchasing. A stronger US dollar: Continued dollar appreciation could make US cotton less competitive in export markets. Pressure from competing fibres: If polyester remains competitively priced despite higher crude oil, cotton may struggle to gain market share. If supply proves ample and export demand remains subdued, futures could come under renewed pressure, particularly in deferred contracts where expectations for the next marketing period are more important. Cotton Price Forecast The near-term outlook is cautiously mixed. Nearby futures have gained modestly, physical-market indicators show some firmness, and crude oil is providing a potentially supportive influence. However, the US harvest is advancing ahead of schedule, crop-condition ratings have improved and a stronger dollar could limit export competitiveness. The next stage of the market's direction will depend on whether demand can absorb the incoming crop. Evidence of stronger export sales, improved mill demand and sustained physical-price strength would reinforce the bullish case. Conversely, a large harvest combined with weaker buying interest could place renewed pressure on futures. For the deferred contracts, the outlook will depend increasingly on expectations for global production, textile consumption, inventory levels and the relative economics of cotton versus synthetic fibres. Overall forecast: Cotton remains in a market of competing influences, with a modestly constructive signal from nearby prices but no clear confirmation of a sustained bullish trend. Harvest results and demand indicators are likely to determine whether the recovery can continue. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next US harvest results: Monitor final yields, fibre quality and whether harvesting continues to run ahead of normal. Export sales: Look for evidence that overseas buyers are absorbing US cotton supplies at a sustainable pace. Physical-market prices: Track the Cotlook A Index and commercial transaction activity for confirmation of futures strength. Global textile demand: Apparel orders, mill operating rates and consumer demand will influence cotton consumption. Crude oil and polyester: Assess whether higher energy costs translate into meaningful changes in competing fibre prices. US dollar movements: Further appreciation could affect export competitiveness and the outlook for US cotton shipments. Currency Hedger View Cotton prices are influenced by agricultural supply, textile demand, energy costs and currency movements. For international cotton traders, manufacturers and businesses purchasing or selling commodities across borders, exchange-rate changes can affect the final cost of transactions even when the underlying commodity price remains stable. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Currency Hedger Visit CurrencyHedger.com Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell cotton futures or other financial instruments. Commodity markets can be highly volatile, and leveraged trading can result in substantial losses. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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October 15, 2026

POET Technologies Stock Forecast: Can the AI Photonics Opportunity Justify Its Valuation?

POET Technologies is emerging as a speculative name in the artificial intelligence infrastructure trade, with its optical interposer technology targeting the growing need for faster, more efficient data transmission inside AI data centres. However, the Canadian company faces a substantial challenge: converting its technology and industry interest into meaningful commercial revenue while controlling losses and proving that it can manufacture advanced optical components at scale. With a market capitalisation of approximately $1.3 billion, reported revenue of around $1.7 million and a net loss of as much as $75 million, the gap between POET's valuation and its current financial performance remains considerable. The investment case therefore depends less on what the company earns today and more on whether it can establish a commercially viable position in a rapidly expanding photonics market. Market Snapshot Market capitalisation: Approximately $1.3 billion Revenue: Around $1.7 million Net loss: As much as $75 million Recent share-price context: A retreat from approximately $17 towards the $6–$9 range Key growth driver: Optical connectivity for AI data centres Principal risks: Customer acquisition, manufacturing yields, financing and execution POET's valuation reflects expectations of future commercial growth rather than established earnings power. That creates the potential for substantial upside if the company delivers, but also leaves the share price vulnerable if orders, production milestones or financial results fall short of expectations. POET price chart (D1) POET's Position in the AI Photonics Market The expansion of artificial intelligence is placing increasing demands on data-centre infrastructure. AI workloads require large volumes of data to move rapidly between processors, memory and networking equipment. As conventional electrical interconnects encounter constraints involving bandwidth, power consumption and signal integrity, optical technologies are becoming increasingly important. POET's Optical Interposer platform is designed to integrate optical and electronic components into compact, configurable assemblies. The intended applications include optical engines, transmitters, receivers and connectivity solutions for high-speed data-centre networks. The opportunity is significant, but operating in a growing market does not automatically translate into commercial success. POET must demonstrate that its products can meet customer specifications, deliver reliable performance, achieve competitive production economics and secure repeat orders. The company's technology proposition is therefore only one part of the investment thesis. Manufacturing capability, customer qualification and the transition from development programmes to volume production will determine whether the opportunity can support its valuation. Competition and Industry Demand POET operates in a competitive industry that includes established photonics and semiconductor businesses such as Broadcom, Lumentum, Marvell and Coherent. These companies have existing customer relationships, substantial engineering resources and established manufacturing or supply-chain capabilities. At the same time, the growth of AI infrastructure is creating demand for higher-bandwidth optical connectivity. Industry commentary has highlighted supply constraints across parts of the photonics sector, potentially creating opportunities for smaller suppliers with differentiated technology. However, broad industry demand must be distinguished from demand specifically available to POET. Even when customers need more optical components, they will select suppliers based on performance, reliability, cost, production capacity and qualification requirements. For POET, the most important evidence will be customer commitments, conversion of its development pipeline into revenue and the ability to fulfil orders consistently. Strong sector demand can provide favourable conditions, but it cannot substitute for company-specific execution. Financial Performance and Valuation The disparity between POET's market capitalisation and its current revenue makes conventional valuation comparisons difficult. Investors are effectively assigning considerable value to future commercial potential, despite the company remaining loss-making. The next financial results will be important for assessing whether that potential is beginning to translate into measurable progress. Market expectations include year-on-year revenue growth from approximately $0.5 million to $0.7 million and a reduction in losses towards an earnings-per-share figure of around -$0.05. These expectations should be treated as estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes. Even if POET meets them, the absolute revenue base would remain small relative to its valuation. Investors will need evidence that revenue can continue to scale beyond individual development projects and initial customer programmes. Management's longer-term ambition of approximately $300 million in revenue by 2028 would represent a substantial transformation of the business. Reaching that target would require significant commercial expansion, successful customer qualification, improved manufacturing yields and the capacity to deliver products at scale. A scenario in which POET achieves that level of revenue could materially alter how the market values the company. However, any discounted cash-flow or valuation model based on that outcome remains highly sensitive to the probability of achieving the target, future margins, capital expenditure, dilution and the time required to reach profitability. The Marvell Agreement and Investor Confidence POET's share-price history has been heavily influenced by expectations surrounding its commercial relationships. Reports of a potential agreement involving Marvell helped drive a substantial rally during April and May 2026. The subsequent termination of the agreement by a Marvell subsidiary, reportedly following a confidentiality breach, became a major setback for investor confidence. The episode illustrates the sensitivity of speculative technology stocks to announcements, rumours and management decisions. A perceived commercial breakthrough can rapidly increase expectations, while a terminated agreement can reverse those gains. Investors should distinguish between a signed commercial arrangement, a development collaboration, a customer qualification programme and a revenue-generating production contract. These milestones have different economic implications and should not be treated as interchangeable evidence of commercial success. POET's ability to rebuild confidence will depend on verifiable progress rather than renewed speculation alone. Bullish Scenario A more constructive outlook would emerge if POET demonstrates that its optical interposer platform can move from development into repeatable commercial production. The main factors supporting a bullish scenario include: Customer diversification: Securing additional customers would reduce dependence on individual relationships and broaden the addressable revenue base. Manufacturing improvements: Higher production yields could lower unit costs, improve margins and make larger orders economically viable. AI infrastructure demand: Continued investment in data centres and high-speed optical connectivity could expand the opportunity for qualified suppliers. Commercial validation: Repeat orders, meaningful backlog conversion and sustained revenue growth would provide stronger evidence of product-market fit. Financial discipline: Preserving sufficient capital to fund development and production would give the company more time to execute its strategy. If these conditions are met, the market could begin valuing POET on its prospective commercial earnings rather than its current limited revenue. That could support a significant recovery, although the scale and timing of any share-price appreciation would remain uncertain. Bearish Scenario The downside case centres on the risk that technological promise fails to translate into profitable commercial operations. Potential negative developments include: Slow customer adoption: Qualification processes may take longer than expected, delaying meaningful revenue. Poor manufacturing yields: Production inefficiencies could raise costs, constrain deliveries and undermine the economics of the platform. Intense competition: Established suppliers may respond with competing solutions, pricing pressure or stronger customer propositions. Financing requirements: Persistent losses could eventually require additional capital, potentially diluting existing shareholders. Valuation compression: If commercial milestones are delayed, investors may reassess the premium embedded in the company's market capitalisation. The stock's speculative appeal can amplify these risks. Strong retail interest and momentum-driven buying may support the share price for periods, but sentiment can reverse quickly when expectations are not met. Forecast: What Could Determine the Next Move? POET's outlook is best understood through a series of operational milestones rather than a single share-price target. In the near term, quarterly results and management commentary may influence sentiment, particularly if revenue growth, customer activity or production progress differs from expectations. However, one quarter of improved figures would not by itself establish a sustainable growth trajectory. Over the medium term, the most important question is whether POET can convert its technical capabilities into repeatable, economically attractive production. Evidence of customer diversification, increasing shipments and improving yields would strengthen the investment case. The longer-term opportunity depends on the company's ability to capture a meaningful share of the AI photonics market. Its revenue ambitions could provide a framework for assessing progress, but investors should evaluate them against demonstrated orders, manufacturing capacity and available financing. Overall outlook: POET offers exposure to a potentially attractive growth market, but the investment remains high-risk and execution-dependent. A favourable industry backdrop provides an opportunity, not a guarantee of commercial success. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next The next several quarters should help establish whether POET is progressing towards a commercially sustainable business. Revenue and customer acquisition: Look for sustained growth, additional customers and evidence that existing relationships are generating repeat business. Backlog and order conversion: Assess whether announced opportunities are translating into actual shipments and recognised revenue. Production yields: Monitor improvements in manufacturing consistency, reliability and cost efficiency. Cash reserves and financing: Review cash consumption, available capital and whether the company can fund its plans without excessive dilution. Commercial agreements: Distinguish binding contracts and production orders from preliminary discussions or development arrangements. Valuation versus execution: Consider whether the market capitalisation remains justified by the pace of measurable commercial progress. Today Markets View POET Technologies represents a high-risk opportunity within the AI infrastructure theme. Its optical interposer technology targets a market in which higher data-transfer speeds and more efficient connectivity are increasingly important. If the company can establish customer trust, diversify its commercial relationships and achieve reliable production at scale, its current financial performance may understate its longer-term potential. Nevertheless, the valuation already reflects substantial expectations for future growth. The combination of limited revenue, continuing losses, manufacturing challenges and competition means investors must be cautious about treating industry demand as proof that POET will succeed. The most constructive signal would be a sustained sequence of commercial milestones: growing revenue, repeat orders, improved yields and disciplined cash management. Without that evidence, the shares remain exposed to sharp sentiment-driven moves and valuation risk. For now, POET is better viewed as a speculative technology investment than an established AI infrastructure business. Its future will depend on execution, not simply on the popularity of the AI theme. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Currency Hedger Visit CurrencyHedger.com Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a forecast of guaranteed returns. Shares in early-stage technology companies can be highly volatile and may result in substantial losses. Figures and expectations cited are based on the supplied market commentary and should be independently verified against current company disclosures. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and may not materialise.

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October 15, 2026

Coffee Price Forecast: Arabica and Robusta Rise as Crop Risks Offset Supply Growth

Coffee prices have moved higher as concerns over Colombia’s declining production and the potential impact of El Niño on future harvests offset expectations for abundant global supplies. December arabica coffee futures gained 1.83% to close at the equivalent of a 5.35-cent increase, while November robusta futures rose 0.69%, adding 24 points. The market faces competing forces. Lower Colombian output and weather uncertainty in Brazil create upside risks, while stronger export flows from Brazil and Vietnam, improving growing conditions and forecasts for record global production could limit further gains. The direction of prices will depend on whether supply disruptions become more significant than the anticipated increase in global availability. Market Snapshot December arabica futures: Up 5.35 cents, or 1.83%. November robusta futures: Up 24 points, or 0.69%. Colombia 2025/26 production: Down 15% year on year to 12.65 million bags. Colombia 2025/26 exports: Down 12% to 11.78 million bags. Brazil September coffee exports: Up more than 20% year on year to 236,000 metric tonnes. Global 2025/26 production forecast: 183.6 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organization. Global supply balance: The ICO projects a surplus of 3 million bags for 2025/26. Arabica Coffee Analysis: Colombia's Declining Output Supports Prices Arabica coffee is receiving support from concerns over Colombian supply. Colombia is a major producer of arabica, and the reported 15% year-on-year decline in 2025/26 production to 12.65 million bags, alongside a 12% reduction in exports to 11.78 million bags, points to a tighter contribution from an important origin. If lower production persists, exporters may have less coffee available to meet international demand. This could increase competition for available beans, particularly if buyers seek to secure supplies ahead of uncertainty surrounding the next Brazilian crop. ICE arabica inventories are another important indicator. Stocks fell to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags on September 15 before recovering to 260,654 bags on September 30. Although the rebound suggests some replenishment, inventories remain an important measure of readily available exchange-certified supply. Further stock declines could amplify the effect of production disruptions, while sustained inventory growth would weaken the scarcity argument. However, Colombian supply concerns must be weighed against the broader outlook for Brazil. If Brazilian arabica production improves as expected, additional supplies could offset part of Colombia's shortfall and limit the durability of the current price recovery. Brazil's Coffee Crop: El Niño Creates Weather Uncertainty Weather conditions in Brazil remain central to the arabica outlook. Coffee trader Commercial has warned that El Niño could delay rainfall during a critical flowering period, potentially affecting the 2026/27 crop. Flowering is an important stage in coffee development. Poorly timed rainfall or adverse temperatures can affect flowering, fruit setting and ultimately the number and development of cherries available for harvest. If adverse weather persists across major growing areas, expectations for Brazil's next crop could be revised lower. Nevertheless, current rainfall data also point to a more favourable possibility. Somar Meteorologia reported 33.3 millimetres of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ended October 4, equivalent to 104% of the historical average. Adequate moisture during flowering can support crop development, provided rainfall distribution and temperatures remain favourable. This creates a significant uncertainty for prices: the market must balance the possibility of future weather damage against evidence that current growing conditions may be supporting production. Brazil's crop estimates remain substantial. Conab raised its 2026 production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million. Arabica output is forecast to rise 34.8% year on year to 48.21 million bags, while robusta production is expected to fall 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The USDA's separate forecast places Brazil's 2026/27 crop at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14% year on year. Differences between crop forecasts reflect different estimates and assumptions, but both highlight the potential for substantial Brazilian supply. Robusta Coffee Analysis: Vietnam's Export Growth Limits Gains Robusta faces a different supply picture, with Vietnam's export growth creating a significant headwind. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and its export performance provides an important indication of the availability of coffee for international buyers. Vietnam's September exports increased 53% year on year to 124,000 metric tonnes. Exports from January to September rose 16.2% to 1.45 million tonnes, while 2025/26 production is projected to increase 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. These figures suggest that Vietnam could provide greater export availability if production and logistics remain favourable. Recent rainfall has also improved soil moisture in the Central Highlands, the country's principal coffee-growing region, potentially supporting cherry development. For robusta prices, the key question is whether higher exports represent a sustained increase in available supply or simply the release of stocks accumulated earlier in the season. If exports remain strong alongside improving production, prices could face continued downward pressure despite short-term gains. ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 10.5-month high of 5,398 lots on September 24 before falling to 5,115 lots last Friday. The decline offers some evidence of tighter exchange stocks, but the broader inventory trend and incoming Vietnamese shipments will remain important. Global Coffee Supply: Record Production Could Cap the Rally The wider global balance remains a bearish consideration. The International Coffee Organization forecasts 2025/26 production at a record 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year on year, while consumption is projected to fall 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That would leave a global surplus of approximately 3 million bags, the first surplus in five years according to the ICO. If these projections materialise, buyers may have less incentive to compete aggressively for supplies, especially if inventories begin to recover. The USDA also expects global coffee production to rise by 6% in 2026/27 to a record 189.7 million bags. Global arabica production is forecast to increase 12%, while robusta production is expected to edge down 0.7%. World ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million. These forecasts create a ceiling risk for prices. However, global production estimates do not guarantee that coffee will be available at the right time, quality and location. Weather disruptions, export bottlenecks and low exchange-certified inventories can still produce short-term shortages even when the overall market is expected to record a surplus. Bullish Scenario Coffee prices could extend their recovery if Colombian production remains weak and El Niño disrupts flowering or crop development in Brazil. Lower arabica inventories would increase sensitivity to any reduction in export availability. Robusta could also strengthen if Vietnamese export growth slows, weather conditions deteriorate or exchange stocks decline further. A deterioration in global crop forecasts would challenge expectations of a substantial surplus and encourage buyers to secure supplies earlier. Bearish Scenario Prices could weaken if Brazil delivers a larger-than-expected crop and favourable rainfall supports flowering and cherry development. Continued growth in Vietnamese exports would add pressure to robusta, while the anticipated increase in global production could improve buyer availability across both varieties. If consumption remains subdued and the projected global surplus materialises, commercial buyers may reduce precautionary purchasing. Rebuilding exchange inventories would further undermine the scarcity premium, particularly for arabica. Coffee Price Forecast The near-term outlook is mixed, with weather uncertainty and regional supply constraints supporting prices while global production forecasts remain bearish. Arabica is particularly sensitive to Colombian output, Brazilian flowering conditions and the availability of exchange-certified stocks. Robusta is more exposed to Vietnam's production and export trajectory, making the pace of shipments an important determinant of price direction. The medium-term outlook will depend on whether weather risks translate into measurable crop losses. If production estimates remain high and exports continue to expand, the recent rally may prove temporary. If adverse weather reduces expected yields while inventories remain tight, coffee prices could receive further support. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Brazilian flowering and rainfall: Monitor whether rainfall remains adequate across major arabica-growing regions and whether weather forecasts alter expectations for the next crop. Colombian production and exports: Further declines could tighten arabica availability. Vietnamese exports: Continued growth would weigh on robusta, while a slowdown could improve the supply outlook. ICE arabica inventories: Sustained declines would increase the risk of a tighter readily available supply. ICE robusta inventories: Further stock changes will help assess whether rising exports are translating into greater market availability. ICO and USDA estimates: Revisions to production, consumption and ending stocks could reshape expectations for the global surplus. Global consumption: A recovery in demand would help absorb the projected increase in production, while weaker consumption would reinforce the bearish supply outlook. Currency Hedger View Coffee markets demonstrate how agricultural prices respond to weather, crop yields, export flows, inventories and changing consumption patterns. For coffee roasters, importers, exporters and food businesses, price fluctuations can affect purchasing budgets and operating margins. Currency movements can add another layer of uncertainty when coffee is traded across borders or purchased in US dollars. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Coffee futures and other commodity markets involve significant risk. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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October 15, 2026

Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Forecast: Higher Beef Prices Contrast With Futures Weakness

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures are facing mixed fundamentals as wholesale beef prices strengthen while cattle futures remain under pressure. Live cattle contracts have declined modestly, while feeder cattle futures have recorded larger losses, despite a higher CME Feeder Cattle Index and firmer boxed beef prices. The market’s next direction will depend on the balance between beef demand, available slaughter supplies, pasture conditions and the cost of bringing feeder cattle to market weight. Market Snapshot October 2026 live cattle: Closed at $223.900, down $0.725. December 2026 live cattle: Closed at $225.125, down $1.250. February 2027 live cattle: Closed at $227.425, down $1.150. October 2026 feeder cattle: Closed at $340.950, down $2.125. November 2026 feeder cattle: Closed at $338.450, down $2.575. January 2027 feeder cattle: Closed at $333.600, down $2.250. CME Feeder Cattle Index: $341.42 on October 13, up $0.05. Wholesale boxed beef: Choice rose $1.35 to $376.50, while Select gained $4.80 to $358.47. Live Cattle Analysis: Beef Prices Support the Market Live cattle futures have softened despite stronger wholesale beef prices, highlighting the difference between current boxed beef values and expectations for future cash cattle demand. Choice and Select boxed beef prices have both advanced, with Select recording the larger increase. This suggests firmer wholesale values across both categories, although the sustainability of the move will depend on retailer purchasing, consumer demand and the ability of processors to pass higher costs through the supply chain. The Wednesday Fed Cattle Exchange auction provides another indication of cash-market conditions. One lot sold at $226 per hundredweight from the 2,914 head offered, while other bids reached $223. Limited completed sales make it difficult to establish a broad cash-market trend from the auction alone. For live cattle futures, the central question is whether stronger wholesale beef values translate into sustained demand for slaughter-ready animals. If processors need to secure cattle while market-ready supplies remain constrained, cash prices could provide support. However, if consumer demand weakens or wholesale prices retreat, packer margins could come under pressure and limit their willingness to bid aggressively for cattle. Feeder Cattle Analysis: Pasture Conditions and Replacement Costs Feeder cattle futures have fallen more sharply than live cattle, reflecting continued sensitivity to the cost of raising and finishing animals, forage availability and expectations for future fed-cattle values. The CME Feeder Cattle Index increased slightly to $341.42 on October 13, offering a contrast to the declines in futures. This divergence may reflect differences between the cash market for feeder cattle and traders’ expectations for future supply, demand and production costs. Pasture conditions remain an important consideration. The latest Crop Progress report put US pasture and range conditions rated good to excellent at 22%, down one percentage point from the previous week. The Brugler500 index remained unchanged at 257. Poor pasture conditions can increase reliance on purchased feed and raise the cost of maintaining cattle, potentially limiting the number of animals producers are willing or able to retain. However, the effect on feeder cattle prices is not automatically bullish: elevated feed costs can also reduce feedlot margins and the prices buyers are prepared to pay for replacement animals. The market will therefore be watching whether pasture conditions improve, whether feed costs remain manageable and whether feedlot operators can justify current feeder cattle valuations against expected finished-cattle prices. Slaughter Levels and Beef Supply USDA-estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter reached 110,000 head on Wednesday. The week-to-date total stood at 326,000 head, up 3,000 from the previous week but 20,789 head below the corresponding week last year. The lower year-on-year slaughter total may indicate a tighter flow of cattle through processing, although the figures alone do not establish the reason for the difference. A smaller slaughter supply can support wholesale beef prices when demand remains firm, but processors must balance product values against cattle procurement costs and operating margins. If slaughter numbers remain below year-earlier levels while beef demand holds up, wholesale prices could receive further support. If demand weakens, however, reduced production may not be sufficient to prevent prices from falling. Bullish Scenario Cattle prices could strengthen if boxed beef values remain firm, slaughter-ready supplies stay constrained and processors compete for available animals. Strong consumer demand and improving pasture conditions could also help support the broader market by improving production prospects. For feeder cattle, a combination of resilient finished-cattle prices and manageable feed costs would improve feedlot purchasing economics and could help futures recover. Bearish Scenario Further futures weakness could develop if wholesale beef prices lose momentum, consumer demand softens or packer margins deteriorate. Lower bids for finished cattle would likely put pressure on live cattle contracts and could feed through to feeder cattle valuations. Feeder cattle could face additional pressure if poor pasture conditions raise production costs or if feedlot operators reduce replacement-cattle purchases because expected finishing margins become less attractive. Cattle Price Forecast The near-term outlook is mixed. Stronger boxed beef prices and a lower year-on-year slaughter total offer potential support to live cattle, but futures declines suggest traders remain cautious about the durability of demand and the economics of the cattle supply chain. Feeder cattle face a separate set of challenges, with pasture conditions, feed costs and the relationship between replacement-cattle prices and future fed-cattle values likely to remain decisive. A sustained recovery would be more convincing if wholesale beef prices remain firm, cash cattle bids broaden and feedlot margins improve. Conversely, weaker beef demand, lower cash bids or rising production costs could extend the pressure on futures. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Cash cattle sales: Broader sales activity and stronger bids would help confirm whether packers are competing more aggressively for cattle. Choice and Select boxed beef: Continued gains would support the demand outlook, while a reversal could pressure futures. Weekly slaughter totals: Compare current processing levels with seasonal patterns and year-earlier figures. Pasture and range conditions: Further deterioration could increase reliance on purchased feed. Feeder cattle index: Continued divergence between the cash index and futures may signal changing market expectations. Feed costs and feedlot margins: These will influence replacement-cattle demand and finishing economics. Consumer beef demand: Retail purchasing and food-service demand will help determine whether higher wholesale prices can be sustained. Currency Hedger View Cattle markets demonstrate how agricultural prices respond to livestock availability, feed costs, pasture conditions and consumer demand. For meat processors, livestock producers and food businesses operating internationally, commodity-price movements can affect input costs and margins, while exchange-rate volatility can add uncertainty to imported feed, equipment and cross-border transactions. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Livestock futures and other commodity markets involve significant risk. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Recovers Towards $4,150 as Oil Retreats and Fed Risks Persist

Gold has climbed towards $4,150 per ounce, recovering from recent losses as the end of crude oil’s five-session rally eases some pressure across financial markets. However, the recovery remains vulnerable to changing expectations for US monetary policy. September inflation exceeded forecasts, strengthening concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain tighter financial conditions or raise interest rates further. Gold’s next move will depend on the balance between safe-haven demand, inflation risks and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Market Snapshot Gold price: Approaching $4,150 per ounce. Recent price action: Recovery following the previous session’s losses. US CPI: 3.7% in September, above the 3.6% market forecast and the highest in four months. Primary headwind: Expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy. Key support factors: Safe-haven demand, investment flows and uncertainty across financial and energy markets. Gold Market Analysis: Inflation and Interest Rates Remain in Focus Gold’s recovery reflects a market balancing competing forces. Easing crude oil prices may reduce immediate pressure on energy-sensitive markets, while bullion continues to attract attention as investors assess inflation, monetary policy and broader economic risks. The latest US Consumer Price Index reading of 3.7% complicates the outlook. Higher energy costs contributed to inflation exceeding expectations, raising concerns that price pressures could prove more persistent than anticipated. For gold, the implications are mixed. Persistent inflation can strengthen demand for an asset traditionally used to preserve purchasing power. However, if inflation prompts the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates or tighten policy further, rising yields and a stronger US dollar could weigh on bullion. Gold does not pay interest, making its relative appeal sensitive to the returns available from cash and government bonds. The direction of inflation-adjusted Treasury yields will therefore remain important in determining whether gold can sustain its recovery. Federal Reserve Policy: A Critical Driver for Bullion Comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced uncertainty over the monetary policy outlook. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the inflation figures as discouraging and warned that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure could contribute to economic overheating. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also indicated that further increases in short-term interest rates may be necessary, although she saw no immediate need for a rate hike at the October meeting. These comments highlight the distinction between the possibility of future tightening and an immediate policy decision. Gold could remain volatile as investors adjust their expectations around incoming inflation, employment and economic activity data. If markets increasingly price in further tightening, bullion may face renewed pressure. Conversely, if officials adopt a more cautious stance and real yields decline, gold could attract renewed investment demand. Physical Gold Demand, Central Banks and Investment Flows Beyond monetary policy, gold’s medium-term direction will depend on physical demand and investment allocation. Central-bank purchases can provide structural support when institutions seek to diversify reserves. Jewellery consumption, particularly in major Asian markets, is also relevant, although elevated prices can reduce affordability and discourage discretionary purchases. Investment flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds and demand for physical bars and coins can influence the balance between buyers and sellers. During periods of heightened uncertainty, investment demand may strengthen even when higher interest rates create a headwind. The interaction between these demand sources matters. Strong central-bank and investment buying could help absorb selling pressure from interest-rate-sensitive investors, while weaker physical consumption and persistent ETF outflows could leave gold more exposed to changes in monetary policy expectations. Bullish Scenario Gold could extend its recovery if geopolitical uncertainty or financial-market volatility strengthens safe-haven demand. A decline in real US yields, a weaker dollar or a less hawkish Federal Reserve outlook would provide additional support. Continued central-bank purchases and renewed inflows into gold-backed investment products could reinforce the upside, particularly if physical demand remains resilient despite elevated prices. Bearish Scenario Gold could retreat if markets increasingly expect further Federal Reserve rate hikes and US Treasury yields rise. A stronger dollar could add pressure by making bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. If investment demand weakens alongside improving risk sentiment, gold may struggle to sustain its recovery. A combination of rising real yields, reduced safe-haven demand and weaker physical buying would create a more challenging environment. Gold Price Forecast Gold’s near-term outlook remains cautiously balanced as the recovery towards $4,150 encounters uncertainty over US monetary policy. The inflation report increases the risk that interest rates remain restrictive for longer, potentially limiting gains. However, the same inflation pressures and broader economic uncertainty may continue to support demand for gold as a store of value. The next directional move will depend on whether investment demand and safe-haven buying can offset the pressure from higher yields and a potentially stronger dollar. A sustained recovery would be more convincing if accompanied by falling real yields and improving investment flows. Continued repricing towards tighter monetary policy would increase the risk of renewed weakness. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next US inflation data: Further evidence of persistent price pressures could strengthen expectations of tighter monetary policy. Federal Reserve commentary: Any change in officials’ assessment of inflation risks may influence rate expectations. US Treasury real yields: Falling real yields could improve gold’s relative appeal, while rising yields may weigh on prices. US dollar: Dollar strength or weakness will influence international bullion demand. Central-bank purchases: Continued reserve diversification could support longer-term demand. Gold ETF flows: Sustained inflows or outflows may reveal changes in institutional and retail investment appetite. Crude oil prices: Further energy-price movements could influence inflation expectations and the outlook for monetary policy. Currency Hedger View Gold remains sensitive to the interaction between inflation, interest-rate expectations, the US dollar and global investment demand. For businesses with international purchasing or sales exposure, movements in gold and other commodities can coincide with currency volatility, affecting costs, revenues and cross-border payment planning. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Gold, commodities and financial derivatives involve risk. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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Energies

October 15, 2026

Heating Oil Prices Ease as Tight Distillate Supplies Keep Market Risks Elevated

US heating oil futures have retreated to around $4.85 per gallon, moving lower alongside crude oil as traders assess potential changes to sanctions on oil shipments and the outlook for global energy flows. However, declining US distillate inventories and continued disruption risks around key shipping routes could limit further downside. The market’s next direction will depend on whether additional supply reaches consumers quickly enough to offset persistent logistical and geopolitical risks. Market Snapshot Heating oil: Around $4.85 per gallon Market direction: Lower alongside crude oil US distillate inventories: Down 1.5 million barrels in the week ended October 9, according to API data Supply-side developments: Proposed easing of restrictions on certain shadow-fleet tankers and Russian diesel exports Key risks: Refinery disruptions, shipping insecurity and uncertainty surrounding energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz Heating Oil Market Analysis: Refinery Output, Inventories and Fuel Demand Heating oil prices remain sensitive to the balance between distillate production and consumption. Unlike crude oil, which is primarily a feedstock, heating oil is a refined petroleum product whose price also reflects refinery operating rates, diesel demand, seasonal heating requirements and the availability of suitable fuel inventories. The reported 1.5-million-barrel decline in US distillate inventories suggests that supply buffers remain under pressure. Distillate stocks include diesel and heating oil, so the drawdown does not establish that heating oil inventories alone have fallen by the same amount. Nevertheless, persistent inventory declines could leave the market more vulnerable to unexpected demand increases or refinery interruptions. Seasonality is another important consideration. As colder weather approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, heating demand can become a more influential price driver. The extent of the impact will depend on temperatures, regional consumption patterns, existing inventories and the ability of refiners and distributors to deliver fuel where it is needed. Sanctions, Refinery Risks and Shipping Disruptions Proposals to ease restrictions on certain shadow-fleet tankers are intended to reduce shipping costs and facilitate oil movements. A separate temporary easing of sanctions affecting Russian diesel exports has also raised the possibility of additional fuel availability. However, the effect on heating oil prices may be limited if the volumes released are relatively small or if transportation, insurance and payment restrictions continue to constrain deliveries. Additional supply must reach the relevant markets before it can materially ease regional fuel tightness. Meanwhile, Russia’s allegations that Ukraine attacked two oil refineries, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Ryazan facility, highlight the vulnerability of refining infrastructure. Any sustained reduction in refinery output could tighten product availability even if crude supplies remain sufficient. Continued attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz add another layer of uncertainty. Disruption to maritime traffic can increase freight and insurance costs, delay cargoes and raise the risk premium across energy markets. These risks may support heating oil prices independently of short-term movements in crude. Bullish Scenario Heating oil could recover if distillate inventories continue to decline, refinery operations are disrupted or shipping risks intensify. Stronger seasonal heating demand would add to the pressure if refiners struggle to replenish stocks quickly enough. In this scenario, lower inventories and rising delivery costs could support refined-fuel prices even if crude oil temporarily consolidates. Bearish Scenario Prices could extend their retreat if crude oil weakens further and additional Russian diesel supplies or other cargoes reach the market. Reduced freight costs, improved shipping conditions and stronger refinery output could help rebuild distillate inventories. Warmer-than-expected weather or softer industrial and transport demand could also reduce pressure on fuel consumption, particularly if supply conditions improve at the same time. Heating Oil Forecast The near-term outlook remains sensitive to inventory data, refinery availability and the effectiveness of measures intended to facilitate oil and diesel shipments. The recent decline towards $4.85 per gallon indicates that prices are responding to softer crude markets, but it does not eliminate the underlying risk of tighter refined-product supply. A sustained recovery in inventories and improved physical deliveries would strengthen the case for further price weakness. Conversely, continued stock draws, refinery outages or shipping disruptions could reverse the decline and renew upward pressure. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next US distillate inventories: Further stock declines would indicate that the supply cushion remains under pressure. Refinery operations: Any prolonged interruption could reduce the availability of heating oil and diesel. Russian diesel exports: Monitor whether changes to sanctions translate into meaningful additional deliveries. Strait of Hormuz shipping: Disruptions could raise freight costs and increase the energy risk premium. Seasonal temperatures: Colder weather could accelerate heating demand and tighten regional inventories. Crude oil prices: Further weakness may weigh on heating oil, although refined-product shortages could cause prices to diverge from crude. Currency Hedger View Heating oil illustrates how commodity prices can be influenced by physical supply conditions, refining capacity, transportation costs and geopolitical developments. For businesses purchasing or selling fuel internationally, these factors can affect procurement budgets, margins and the timing of cross-border payments. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Commodity futures and other financial instruments involve significant risk. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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Cryptocurrencies

October 15, 2026

Cryptocurrency Market Forecast: Ether Falls 3.49% as Bitcoin and XRP Also Decline

Cryptocurrency markets are under pressure, with Ether leading losses among major digital assets after falling 3.49%. XRP has declined 2.61%, while Bitcoin is down 2.06%. The broad-based weakness suggests selling pressure is extending across large-cap cryptocurrencies, although the next move will depend on liquidity conditions, investor positioning, derivatives activity and demand for digital-asset investment products. Market Snapshot Ether (ETH): -3.49% XRP: -2.61% Bitcoin (BTC): -2.06% Cryptocurrency Analysis: Market Structure, Liquidity and Demand Ether: Network Activity and Derivatives Positioning Ether is the weakest performer in the group, falling 3.49%. Its price is influenced by activity across the Ethereum network, decentralised finance, stablecoin transactions, staking and demand for applications built on the blockchain. Derivatives positioning can amplify price movements when leveraged traders are forced to reduce exposure. If the decline triggers liquidations of long positions, selling pressure may intensify beyond the initial move. Conversely, stabilising funding rates, reduced leverage and renewed spot-market demand could help ETH recover. Network fees, transaction activity, exchange flows and demand for investment products linked to Ether will help establish whether the decline reflects short-term positioning or a more sustained deterioration in demand. XRP: Payments Adoption and Token Supply XRP has fallen 2.61%, underperforming Bitcoin but recording a smaller decline than Ether. Its market outlook is influenced by broader crypto sentiment, exchange liquidity, regulatory developments and the use of XRP within payment and settlement infrastructure. Adoption of related payment services does not automatically translate into equivalent demand for the XRP token. The key consideration is whether developments generate meaningful token usage and sustained market demand. Exchange inflows, trading volumes and changes in circulating supply can also influence short-term price pressure. If broader cryptocurrency sentiment stabilises, XRP may recover alongside other major tokens. Continued risk reduction across digital assets, however, could leave the token exposed to further losses. Bitcoin: Institutional Flows and Market Liquidity Bitcoin has declined 2.06%, showing relative resilience compared with Ether and XRP, although it remains under pressure. Its price is influenced by spot-market liquidity, institutional demand, investment-product flows, derivatives positioning and the availability of leveraged capital. Bitcoin also plays a central role in overall cryptocurrency market sentiment. Sharp moves in BTC can affect collateral values and risk appetite across the wider digital-asset market. A stabilisation in Bitcoin could help support altcoins, while a further decline may intensify selling in assets with thinner liquidity. The key signals are whether spot buyers absorb available supply and whether leveraged positions are being reduced in an orderly manner. Bullish Scenario A recovery could develop if selling pressure eases and spot demand strengthens across major cryptocurrencies. Ether: Improving network activity, stabilising derivatives positioning and renewed investment demand support a rebound. XRP: Stronger liquidity, positive regulatory developments or evidence of meaningful token demand improve sentiment. Bitcoin: Sustained spot buying and positive institutional investment flows help stabilise the broader market. A reduction in excessive leverage could also create healthier conditions for a recovery, provided that fresh demand emerges rather than prices relying solely on short covering. Bearish Scenario Further losses remain possible if liquidity deteriorates, leveraged positions unwind or investors reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets. Ether: Long-position liquidations and weaker demand for Ethereum-based applications deepen selling. XRP: Broad market weakness and limited spot demand leave prices vulnerable to additional declines. Bitcoin: Persistent outflows, reduced liquidity or a break below important technical support levels weaken sentiment across the sector. Because cryptocurrency markets operate continuously and derivatives positions can change rapidly, downside moves may accelerate when several risk factors coincide. Cryptocurrency Market Forecast The near-term outlook is cautious, with Ether showing the strongest downside momentum among the three assets. Bitcoin's smaller decline suggests relative resilience in the supplied figures, while XRP remains exposed to wider market sentiment and token-specific developments. A sustained recovery would require evidence of stronger spot demand, stabilising liquidity and reduced selling pressure. If leveraged positions continue to unwind or capital moves away from digital assets, the current declines could extend. The percentage changes alone do not establish whether a durable market bottom has formed. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Bitcoin spot demand: Trading volumes and institutional investment flows may signal whether buyers are returning. Ether network activity: Transaction demand, application usage and staking-related developments could influence ETH's relative performance. XRP developments: Regulatory news, liquidity and actual token usage remain important factors. Derivatives positioning: Funding rates, open interest and liquidation activity can reveal whether leverage is amplifying volatility. Stablecoin liquidity: Changes in stablecoin supply and exchange balances may provide clues about available trading capital. Broader risk appetite: Interest-rate expectations and investor demand for risk assets can influence cryptocurrency flows. Currency Hedger View Cryptocurrency volatility can affect businesses with digital-asset exposure, international payment obligations or revenues denominated in multiple currencies. However, digital assets do not always move in line with traditional foreign exchange markets, and their liquidity and trading risks can differ substantially. Businesses should distinguish cryptocurrency price exposure from conventional currency risk and assess how each affects cash flow, settlement timing and financial planning. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and related derivatives are highly volatile and can result in substantial losses. Forecasts are conditional and may change as market conditions evolve.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Agricultural Commodities Forecast: Oats Slide 4.33% as Lumber and Rubber Weaken

Agricultural and related raw-material markets are showing mixed performance, with oats falling 4.33%, lumber declining 2.47% and rubber losing 2.22%. Coffee is advancing 1.37%, while wheat gains 0.60%. The divergence reflects the different supply chains behind these commodities, from grain harvests and food demand to construction activity, tyre manufacturing and weather-sensitive production. Market Snapshot Oats: -4.33% Lumber: -2.47% Rubber: -2.22% Coffee: +1.37% Wheat: +0.60% Commodities Analysis: Supply, Demand and Market Fundamentals Oats: Grain Availability and Feed Demand Under Pressure Oats are the weakest performer, falling 4.33%. Prices are influenced by harvest expectations, crop yields, inventories, transport costs and demand from food manufacturers and livestock-feed producers. Weather conditions in major growing regions can quickly change supply expectations, particularly when adverse conditions affect crop quality or yields. The next direction will depend on whether available grain supplies are sufficient to meet milling and feed demand. Larger harvests, comfortable inventories or weaker feed consumption could prolong the decline. Conversely, production shortfalls, deteriorating crop conditions or stronger demand from food processors could help stabilise prices. The size of the latest decline signals substantial selling pressure, but confirmation from crop estimates, export demand and inventory data is needed to determine whether the move reflects a lasting change in fundamentals. Lumber: Construction Demand and Mill Production Drive Prices Lumber has declined 2.47%, placing construction activity and sawmill economics in focus. Demand is closely linked to housing starts, homebuilding activity, renovation spending and broader construction conditions, particularly in North America. On the supply side, sawmill operating rates, log availability, labour costs and transportation expenses influence the amount of lumber reaching the market. Reduced construction activity alongside steady production can increase available stocks and pressure prices. However, mill curtailments, improving homebuilding demand or tighter timber supply could provide support. The outlook therefore depends on whether construction demand can absorb production or whether inventories continue to build. Rubber: Tyre Manufacturing and Natural Rubber Supply Rubber prices have fallen 2.22%. Natural rubber demand is heavily influenced by tyre manufacturing, vehicle production and industrial activity, while supply depends on tapping conditions, weather, seasonal production patterns and output from major producing countries in Southeast Asia. Heavy rainfall or disease affecting rubber plantations can disrupt harvesting and tighten supply. Conversely, favourable growing conditions and higher output can increase availability. On the demand side, weaker vehicle production or subdued tyre replacement demand may weigh on consumption. The key indicator is whether production and export availability are growing faster than industrial demand. A tighter physical market could support recovery, while weak manufacturing orders and ample supply would leave prices vulnerable. Coffee: Weather Risks and Crop Supply Support Prices Coffee is the strongest performer in the group, rising 1.37%. The market remains sensitive to weather conditions in major producing countries, particularly Brazil and Vietnam, as well as crop yields, export availability and inventories. Drought, excessive rainfall or unfavourable temperatures can affect flowering, bean development and harvest expectations. Supply concerns can therefore generate sharp price movements even when broader agricultural markets are weakening. Currency movements in producing countries can also influence farmers’ selling incentives and export competitiveness. Further gains would be more sustainable if supported by evidence of tightening supply or stronger demand. Improved crop prospects, rising export volumes or easing supply concerns could limit the advance. Wheat: Global Harvests and Export Flows Shape the Outlook Wheat has gained 0.60%, suggesting modest upward movement despite weakness elsewhere in the agricultural complex. Prices depend on harvest estimates, weather across major producing regions, export availability, global stocks and demand from food manufacturers and feed markets. Drought, excessive rainfall or frost can threaten yields, while export restrictions and disruptions to Black Sea shipments can tighten internationally traded supply. Conversely, favourable harvest conditions, competitive export offers and comfortable inventories can cap gains. The key question is whether current prices are responding to genuine supply constraints or short-term market positioning. Updated crop forecasts and export data will help establish whether the modest advance can continue. Bullish Scenario Agricultural and related commodities could strengthen if weather disruptions, lower production or improving consumption tighten physical markets. Oats: Adverse growing conditions or stronger food and feed demand reduce available supplies. Lumber: Improving housing activity or sawmill production cuts support prices. Rubber: Weather-related harvesting disruptions coincide with stronger tyre and vehicle demand. Coffee: Crop concerns in major producing countries restrict export availability. Wheat: Lower yield estimates, export restrictions or supply disruptions tighten global availability. Under this scenario, commodities with the clearest evidence of physical supply constraints may outperform. Coffee and wheat would require continued confirmation from crop and export data, while oats, lumber and rubber would need a recovery in their respective demand or supply fundamentals. Bearish Scenario Further losses could develop if production remains ample and demand from food, construction and manufacturing sectors weakens. Oats: Larger harvests and comfortable grain inventories increase supply availability. Lumber: Weak homebuilding and renovation activity leave mills with excess inventory. Rubber: Slower vehicle production and tyre manufacturing reduce industrial consumption. Coffee: Improved crop conditions and stronger export flows ease supply concerns. Wheat: Favourable harvests and abundant global stocks limit the impact of supply risks. A broader slowdown in industrial activity would be particularly relevant for lumber and rubber, while oats and wheat would remain more directly influenced by harvest outcomes, grain stocks and food and feed demand. Agricultural Commodities Forecast The near-term outlook remains mixed, with oats facing the strongest selling pressure and coffee showing the clearest positive momentum among the five commodities. Lumber and rubber remain exposed to construction and manufacturing demand, while wheat's modest gain leaves its direction dependent on global crop conditions and export availability. The next sustained move will depend on whether physical supply-and-demand fundamentals confirm the latest price changes. Crop estimates, inventories, weather developments and industrial demand indicators should carry more weight than short-term price movements alone. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Oats: Harvest estimates, grain inventories, milling demand and livestock-feed consumption. Lumber: Housing starts, construction spending, sawmill output and inventory levels. Rubber: Weather in Southeast Asian growing regions, export volumes and tyre-production data. Coffee: Brazilian and Vietnamese crop conditions, export availability and certified stocks. Wheat: Global production forecasts, Black Sea export flows, major exporters' inventories and weather risks. Currency Hedger View Commodity-price movements can affect the trade balances and currencies of producing and importing economies. Coffee, rubber and grain prices influence agricultural export revenues, while lumber prices can reflect shifts in construction activity and demand for building materials. For businesses importing food ingredients, agricultural inputs or construction materials, price changes can affect purchasing costs alongside foreign-exchange exposure. Monitoring the physical commodity market and the currencies involved in cross-border transactions can help businesses assess the combined impact on budgets and margins. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Commodity, futures and foreign exchange markets involve significant risk. Forecasts are conditional and may change as new market data becomes available.

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Energies

October 15, 2026

Energy Commodities Forecast: Propane Leads Gains as Crude Oil Advances and Biofuels Weaken

Energy commodities are showing divergent price movements, with propane rising 2.36% and crude oil gaining 0.91%, while Brent crude advances a more modest 0.18%. Methanol and ethanol are moving lower, highlighting different supply-and-demand dynamics across the energy complex. The outlook will depend on petroleum supply conditions, seasonal heating demand, refinery activity and the economics of producing and consuming alternative fuels. Market Snapshot Propane: +2.36% Crude oil: +0.91% Brent crude: +0.18% Methanol: -2.34% Ethanol: -0.98% Energy Commodities Analysis: Supply, Demand and Market Fundamentals Propane: Heating Demand and Inventory Levels in Focus Propane is the strongest performer, gaining 2.36%. Unlike crude oil, propane demand is strongly influenced by seasonal heating requirements, petrochemical consumption and agricultural drying needs. Prices are also sensitive to inventories, US production levels, export capacity and shipping costs. As colder weather increases heating demand, withdrawals from storage can tighten regional supply balances. Conversely, ample inventories, strong natural gas processing output or improved export availability could limit further gains. The next direction will depend on whether consumption strengthens faster than available supply. Crude Oil: Supply Risks and Refinery Demand Support Prices Crude oil has gained 0.91%, indicating firmer pricing across the broader petroleum market. The balance between global production, refinery demand and commercial inventories remains central to the outlook. OPEC+ output decisions, non-OPEC supply growth and geopolitical disruptions can all alter expectations for available crude. Refinery utilisation is another important driver. Stronger refinery runs can increase crude demand, particularly when refiners anticipate profitable margins for gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products. However, weaker fuel consumption, rising inventories or additional production could restrict upside momentum. The current gain is positive for prices, but confirmation from inventory data and physical-market demand would help establish whether the move can be sustained. Brent Crude: International Supply and Shipping Risks Brent crude has risen 0.18%, underperforming the broader crude oil gain in the supplied figures. As an international benchmark, Brent is particularly sensitive to seaborne supply, European and Asian refinery demand, shipping costs and disruptions affecting major export routes. Changes in OPEC+ production, North Sea output and demand from major importing economies will influence the market balance. Shipping disruption or reduced export availability could strengthen Brent, while abundant seaborne supply and weaker refinery demand could limit gains. The relatively modest increase suggests that the benchmark is advancing cautiously rather than displaying a strong breakout based on the supplied price changes alone. Methanol: Industrial Demand and Production Economics Methanol has fallen 2.34%, making it the weakest performer in the energy group. Methanol is used in chemical manufacturing, formaldehyde production and other industrial processes, with demand closely tied to activity across manufacturing and downstream chemical markets. Prices are influenced by production costs, particularly natural gas or coal depending on the producing region, as well as plant operating rates, import availability and inventories. Weak downstream demand or abundant production can pressure prices, while plant outages, higher feedstock costs or stronger chemical consumption may provide support. A sustained recovery would require evidence that demand is absorbing available supply or that production is becoming less economical. Ethanol: Fuel Blending and Agricultural Feedstocks Ethanol has declined 0.98%. Unlike crude oil, ethanol prices are closely connected to agricultural feedstock markets, fuel-blending mandates, refinery demand and government policy. In major producing regions, corn or sugar prices can materially influence production economics. If feedstock costs remain elevated while demand for blended fuels weakens, producer margins may come under pressure. Conversely, stronger gasoline consumption, changes in blending requirements or tighter feedstock availability could support ethanol prices. The key consideration is whether fuel demand and production costs allow ethanol producers to maintain competitive margins. Bullish Scenario Energy prices could strengthen if physical demand improves and supply becomes more constrained. Propane: Colder weather, stronger petrochemical consumption or falling inventories tighten regional availability. Crude oil: Refinery demand strengthens while production restraint or supply disruptions reduce available barrels. Brent crude: Shipping interruptions or lower seaborne exports increase the international supply premium. Methanol: Production outages or improving chemical-sector demand reduce excess supply. Ethanol: Stronger fuel consumption and supportive feedstock economics improve producer margins. Under this scenario, petroleum benchmarks could continue to advance, while propane could retain support from seasonal consumption. Methanol and ethanol would need their own improvements in industrial or fuel demand to reverse their current declines. Bearish Scenario The energy complex could weaken if supply expands faster than demand or industrial consumption deteriorates. Propane: High inventories and strong production limit the impact of seasonal demand. Crude oil: Rising inventories, weaker refinery runs or additional production weigh on prices. Brent crude: Ample seaborne supply and subdued international refinery demand restrict gains. Methanol: Weak chemical demand and excess production capacity extend the decline. Ethanol: Lower fuel demand, expensive agricultural feedstocks or weaker blending economics pressure prices. A deterioration in global industrial activity could weigh on petroleum and chemical feedstocks, although the impact would vary according to regional supply conditions and individual product markets. Energy Commodities Forecast The immediate outlook is mixed. Propane is showing the strongest upward momentum, with seasonal demand and inventory levels likely to remain important drivers. Crude oil is firmer, but sustained gains will depend on production decisions, refinery demand and evidence of tightening physical supply. Brent’s smaller advance suggests a more measured move in the international benchmark. Methanol and ethanol face separate challenges linked to chemical-sector consumption, feedstock prices and production economics. Their declines should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of a broad collapse in energy demand. The key distinction is between petroleum markets, where global crude balances and refinery activity dominate, and propane and biofuel markets, where regional inventories, weather, agricultural inputs and industrial consumption can have a greater influence. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Propane inventories and weather: Storage withdrawals and heating demand will help determine whether recent gains can continue. Crude oil inventories: Changes in commercial stocks and refinery utilisation will provide evidence of the underlying petroleum balance. OPEC+ production: Output policy and compliance will influence global crude availability. Brent supply and shipping: Export flows, freight costs and international refinery demand could shift the benchmark's direction. Methanol operating rates: Production costs, plant utilisation and downstream chemical demand will indicate whether supply pressure is easing. Ethanol margins: Corn and sugar prices, gasoline demand and fuel-blending policies will influence production economics. Currency Hedger View Divergent energy prices can have different effects on commodity-exporting and commodity-importing economies. Higher crude oil prices may support the export revenues of energy-producing countries while increasing fuel-import costs and inflationary pressure elsewhere. Propane, methanol and ethanol movements can also affect businesses exposed to heating fuels, chemical feedstocks, agricultural inputs and fuel distribution. For companies operating across borders, these changes may influence costs, margins and foreign-exchange exposure. Monitoring the underlying commodity drivers alongside currency movements can help businesses assess the potential impact on international payments and operating budgets. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Commodity, futures and foreign exchange markets involve significant risk. Forecasts are conditional and may change as new market data becomes available.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Metals Market Forecast: Silver Plunges 5.96% as Platinum, Lithium and Gold Extend Losses

The metals complex is experiencing broad selling pressure, led by a sharp 5.96% decline in silver. Platinum has fallen 3.92%, lithium carbonate has lost 3.05%, and gold is down 1.33%. The scale of the declines highlights weakness across both precious and industrial metals, although the underlying drivers differ. Silver and platinum are exposed to industrial demand as well as investment flows, lithium is closely tied to battery manufacturing and electric-vehicle demand, while gold is particularly sensitive to investment demand and central-bank activity. Market Snapshot Silver: -5.96% Platinum: -3.92% Lithium carbonate: -3.05% Gold: -1.33% Commodities Analysis: Supply, Demand and Sector Fundamentals Silver: Industrial Demand Meets Investment Selling Silver is leading the metals decline, falling 5.96%. Unlike gold, silver has substantial industrial exposure, with demand linked to electronics, solar-panel manufacturing and electrical applications. This dual role can amplify price movements when investment sentiment deteriorates alongside concerns about industrial activity. The key question is whether the sell-off reflects short-term liquidation or a broader reassessment of physical demand. Evidence of resilient industrial consumption or tighter available supply could help prices stabilise. Conversely, weaker manufacturing activity, softer investment demand or continued liquidation could extend the decline. Platinum: Automotive Demand and Mine Supply in Focus Platinum has dropped 3.92%, leaving the market vulnerable to further selling. Its price is influenced by automotive catalyst demand, industrial applications, jewellery consumption and supply from major producing regions, particularly South Africa. Changes in vehicle production, emissions-control requirements and substitution between platinum and other platinum-group metals can influence demand. On the supply side, mining disruptions, energy constraints and production economics may tighten availability. Without confirmation of a deterioration in these fundamentals, the current decline alone does not establish that the physical market has moved into surplus. Lithium Carbonate: Battery Demand and Supply Balances Lithium carbonate has declined 3.05%, bringing battery-material fundamentals into focus. Demand depends heavily on battery-cell production, electric-vehicle sales and energy-storage deployment, while supply responds to mining output, conversion capacity, inventories and producer economics. A slowdown in battery production or an increase in available lithium inventories could keep prices under pressure. However, production curtailments, improving battery demand or tighter material availability could support a recovery. The key indicator is whether supply growth continues to outpace consumption or the market begins moving towards a tighter balance. Gold: Investment Demand and Central-Bank Activity Gold has fallen 1.33%, a smaller decline than those recorded by silver and platinum. Its outlook is shaped by investment flows, real interest rates, currency movements, central-bank purchases and demand for portfolio protection. A sustained decline in investment demand could expose gold to further weakness. However, geopolitical uncertainty, renewed safe-haven buying or continued central-bank accumulation could provide support. Gold's performance relative to industrial metals will help show whether the current move is a broad liquidation across commodities or a more pronounced reduction in demand for industrial materials. Bullish Scenario A recovery across the metals complex could develop if selling pressure fades and physical demand remains resilient. Silver: Industrial consumption, particularly from electronics and solar applications, helps absorb available supply. Platinum: Mine disruptions or stronger automotive and industrial demand tighten the market balance. Lithium carbonate: Battery manufacturing and energy-storage demand improve while producers restrain output. Gold: Investment inflows and central-bank purchases strengthen demand. A combination of firmer physical demand and reduced selling could support a rebound, although each market will require its own fundamental confirmation. Bearish Scenario Further losses remain possible if industrial consumption weakens, inventories build or investment liquidation continues. Silver: Reduced manufacturing demand and weaker investment flows reinforce selling. Platinum: Softer automotive production and industrial activity weigh on consumption. Lithium carbonate: Excess production capacity and elevated inventories limit pricing power. Gold: Persistent selling by investors offsets support from central-bank or safe-haven demand. The risk is that simultaneous weakness in industrial metals reflects deteriorating demand expectations, while precious metals remain vulnerable to portfolio repositioning. Actual inventory and physical-market data will be important in distinguishing temporary price pressure from a more sustained downturn. Metals Market Forecast The immediate outlook is cautious, with silver showing the strongest downside momentum among the four commodities. Platinum also faces meaningful pressure, while lithium carbonate remains sensitive to the balance between battery-sector consumption and supply growth. Gold's decline is comparatively modest, and its direction will depend more heavily on investment flows and safe-haven demand. The next phase will depend on whether physical buyers respond to lower prices or selling spreads further across the sector. A sustained recovery would require improving demand signals or evidence of tighter supply, rather than price declines alone being interpreted as a buying opportunity. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Silver: Industrial demand, solar manufacturing trends and exchange inventories. Platinum: South African mine output, automotive production and platinum-group metal supply balances. Lithium carbonate: Battery production, electric-vehicle sales, conversion capacity and inventory levels. Gold: Central-bank purchases, investment flows and changes in real yields. Cross-commodity signals: Whether industrial metals stabilise before precious metals, or weakness spreads across both groups. Currency Hedger View Metals prices can affect the trade balances, export revenues and currencies of major producing economies. Silver and platinum weakness may influence sentiment towards mining-linked markets, while lithium prices can affect producers and battery-material supply chains. Gold movements can also reflect changes in global risk appetite and demand for monetary protection. For businesses exposed to commodity-linked currencies, the distinction between temporary market liquidation and a sustained change in physical supply and demand is important when assessing foreign-exchange risk. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Commodity, futures and foreign exchange markets involve significant risk. Forecasts are conditional and may change as new market data becomes available.

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Energies

October 15, 2026

Crude Oil Forecast: Prices Ease Towards $94 as Profit-Taking Meets Rising Supply Risks

Crude oil has retreated towards $94 per barrel after a five-session rally, with technical correction and profit-taking weighing on prices. However, the outlook remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, shipping disruptions and potential changes to US sanctions policy. While efforts to ease global freight costs could improve supply flows, escalating tensions around key oil-producing regions continue to create upside risks. Market Snapshot Crude oil: Retreating towards $94 per barrel Recent trend: Five consecutive sessions of gains followed by a pullback US sanctions policy: Potential relaxation of restrictions on shadow-fleet vessels under consideration Strait of Hormuz: Shipping security concerns remain elevated Russia–Ukraine conflict: Reported attacks on Russian oil-refining infrastructure add to supply uncertainty Crude Oil Price Action and Fundamental Outlook The recent decline appears consistent with profit-taking after a sustained rally, although the market remains exposed to significant supply-side risks. Reports that the US is considering easing sanctions on certain shadow-fleet vessels have introduced the possibility of improved shipping availability and lower freight costs. However, the security situation remains fragile. A container ship reportedly sank in the Strait of Hormuz after being struck by unidentified projectiles, while Houthi missile and drone attacks across Saudi Arabia have reinforced concerns about regional transport and energy infrastructure. Separately, Russia has accused Ukraine of attacking two oil refineries, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Ryazan facility. These competing forces leave crude oil vulnerable to sharp price movements as traders weigh potential improvements in shipping flows against the risk of further supply disruptions. Bullish Scenario Oil could recover if tensions in the Middle East intensify, shipping routes face further disruption or attacks on energy infrastructure threaten refining capacity. Any sustained interruption to flows through strategically important routes could increase supply-risk premiums and push prices higher. A renewed rally in crude oil may also emerge if the current pullback attracts buyers while geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Bearish Scenario Prices could extend their correction if profit-taking continues and the market interprets potential US sanctions relief as a step towards easing shipping constraints. Lower freight rates and improved tanker availability could reduce transportation bottlenecks and ease some pressure on oil markets. A broader improvement in supply expectations or weaker demand sentiment could reinforce the downside, particularly if geopolitical risks stop escalating. Crude Oil Forecast The near-term outlook remains volatile, with crude oil balancing technical selling against persistent geopolitical risks. Holding near $94 per barrel would suggest that buyers remain active following the recent rally, while a deeper correction could develop if profit-taking accelerates and shipping concerns ease. Conversely, renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia or Russian energy infrastructure could quickly restore upward momentum. The next sustained move will depend on whether supply risks intensify or signs of improving oil transportation begin to outweigh them. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Strait of Hormuz: Further incidents could threaten a strategically important shipping corridor. US sanctions policy: Any confirmed changes affecting shadow-fleet vessels could influence tanker availability and freight costs. Middle East security: Continued attacks could increase the geopolitical premium in crude prices. Russian refining capacity: Further damage to major refineries could affect regional product supply and crude flows. Price momentum: Whether crude stabilises around $94 or extends its correction will help establish the next short-term direction. Currency Hedger View Oil-price volatility can influence inflation expectations, central-bank policy and the performance of commodity-linked currencies. A renewed oil rally could support currencies linked to energy exports while increasing pressure on major oil-importing economies. Conversely, a sustained decline in crude prices could ease imported inflation and alter interest-rate expectations. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Commodity, futures and foreign exchange markets involve significant risk. Forecasts are conditional and may change as new information emerges.

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Markets

October 15, 2026

Inflation Shock Rocks Global Markets: FTSE 100 Outperforms as Gold and AI Stocks Slide

Higher-than-expected US inflation is reshaping the outlook for global financial markets, pushing Treasury yields higher, weighing on equities and strengthening expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy. With the September consumer price index (CPI) rising at its fastest pace since April, investors are reassessing the prospects for interest rates, corporate earnings and asset valuations. US technology stocks are bearing the brunt of the sell-off, while defensive sectors and the UK’s FTSE 100 are showing greater resilience. Gold is also under pressure as rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while elevated crude oil prices threaten to keep inflation persistent. The coming sessions are likely to remain sensitive to inflation signals, central bank expectations and the ability of corporate earnings to withstand tighter financial conditions. Market Snapshot US inflation: September CPI records its fastest pace of increase since April. Federal Reserve: Market-implied probability of a rate hike later in October rises to 40%, doubling in a week. Nasdaq: Falls more than 1.6% amid pressure on technology and AI-related shares. S&P 500: Declines more than 0.9%. FTSE 100: Gains 1.7% over the past week, outperforming major global indices. Brent crude oil: Trades above $106 per barrel, adding to inflation concerns. Gold: Falls nearly 2%, moving below $4,100 and bringing $4,000 into focus. AI stocks: Valuations fall further as investors reassess future earnings and growth expectations. US Inflation Takes Control of Market Direction Inflation has become the dominant driver of market sentiment, overshadowing company earnings and encouraging investors to reassess the outlook for monetary policy. The stronger September CPI reading has pushed US Treasury yields higher across the yield curve. Rising yields increase borrowing costs, raise the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings and make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to equities. The market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in October has reportedly risen to 40%, double the level seen a week earlier. This repricing reflects growing concern that persistent inflation could delay monetary easing or prompt policymakers to consider further tightening. The combination of higher yields and uncertainty over the Fed’s next move creates a challenging backdrop for risk-sensitive assets. Technology companies, small-cap stocks and businesses whose valuations depend heavily on future growth are particularly exposed. The next market move will depend on whether inflation pressures prove persistent enough to change the expected path of interest rates, or whether subsequent economic data provides reassurance that price growth is moderating. Stocks and Bonds Fall Together as Yields Rise The simultaneous weakness in equities and bonds highlights the difficulty investors face when inflation remains elevated. Bond prices generally fall as yields rise, while higher yields can place pressure on equity valuations by increasing financing costs and reducing the present value of future earnings. When both asset classes decline together, traditional portfolio diversification may provide less protection. The Nasdaq is leading the US equity sell-off, falling more than 1.6%, while the S&P 500 is down more than 0.9%. Small-cap stocks are also under pressure because many smaller businesses are particularly sensitive to borrowing costs and changes in financial conditions. This environment could persist if inflation remains stubborn and the Federal Reserve is forced to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Conversely, evidence of easing price pressures could help Treasury yields stabilise and restore demand for equities. For now, investors are likely to remain highly sensitive to economic releases that alter expectations for interest rates. Corporate Earnings Take a Back Seat to Macroeconomic Risks Corporate earnings have helped support equity markets, but the latest inflation shock is shifting attention towards longer-term risks to profitability and valuation. Bank of America reported weaker-than-expected trading revenue and a charge associated with regulatory penalties. Morgan Stanley, by contrast, delivered stronger results, reinforcing the importance of equity trading activity to earnings across major Wall Street banks. The contrasting results show that company-specific performance remains relevant, but it is currently competing with a much larger macroeconomic narrative. If interest rates remain higher for longer, businesses could face more expensive financing, slower customer demand and pressure on profit margins. These risks may be particularly significant for companies whose share prices already reflect ambitious growth expectations. The coming earnings reports will therefore be judged not only on reported results but also on management guidance, future demand and the ability to sustain profitability under tighter financial conditions. Defensive Stocks Outperform as Investors Reduce Risk The rotation away from growth-sensitive assets is benefiting defensive sectors, including healthcare and consumer staples, alongside energy stocks. These areas can attract investors when uncertainty rises because healthcare and essential consumer goods may be less sensitive to economic cycles than discretionary spending. Energy stocks can also benefit from elevated oil prices, although their performance remains dependent on supply, demand and broader market conditions. Technology and industrial shares are facing greater pressure as investors reassess valuations, financing costs and the economic outlook. The shift towards defensive positioning suggests that investors are prioritising resilience over aggressive growth exposure. If geopolitical risks and inflation concerns persist, this rotation could continue. However, defensive stocks are not immune to rising yields or broader market declines. A sustained improvement in inflation expectations could reverse some of the recent sector divergence as investors return to growth-oriented assets. FTSE 100 Benefits From Defensive Positioning The FTSE 100 is emerging as a relative outperformer, gaining 1.7% over the past week and recording a further 0.7% advance in the latest session described in the market update. Its relative resilience reflects the index’s different sector composition, including exposure to energy, healthcare and other established businesses. These characteristics can help the UK benchmark outperform when investors rotate away from high-valuation technology shares. The strength of oil prices above $106 per barrel may also support energy-related constituents, although higher energy costs can simultaneously increase inflationary pressure across the wider economy. FTSE 100 outperformance does not necessarily signal a broad improvement in UK economic conditions. It may instead reflect relative sector positioning during a period of global risk aversion. The key question is whether defensive demand and energy exposure can continue to offset the impact of higher global yields and persistent inflation. Oil Above $106 Raises the Risk of Persistent Inflation Crude oil remains an important part of the inflation outlook, with Brent trading above $106 per barrel and rising by a further 2% over the past week. Elevated energy prices can feed into transport, manufacturing and production costs, placing pressure on businesses and consumers. If these costs persist, inflation may prove more difficult to contain, complicating central bank decisions and increasing the risk that interest rates remain elevated. For equity markets, the consequences are mixed. Energy producers may benefit from stronger prices, but higher fuel and input costs can squeeze margins in other sectors and weaken household purchasing power. For gold, elevated oil prices can create competing forces. Inflation concerns may support demand for a traditional store of value, but if they lead to higher interest rates and rising real yields, gold can face significant headwinds. The direction of crude oil will therefore remain an important variable in determining whether the current inflation shock fades or becomes more entrenched. Gold Price Forecast: $4,000 Comes Into Focus Gold has fallen nearly 2% and is trading below $4,100 as rising Treasury yields weigh on the precious metal. Unlike bonds and cash instruments, gold does not pay interest. When yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, potentially reducing its appeal to investors who can earn higher returns elsewhere. The immediate outlook is therefore sensitive to the relationship between inflation expectations, Treasury yields, the US dollar and real interest rates. Bearish scenario: If US yields continue to climb and the dollar strengthens, gold could face additional selling pressure, bringing the $4,000 level into focus. A sustained break below that area could encourage further technical selling, although the extent of any decline would depend on market positioning and subsequent economic data. Bullish scenario: Gold could recover if yields stabilise, the dollar weakens or geopolitical uncertainty increases demand for defensive assets. Persistent inflation can also support longer-term interest in gold as a potential hedge, even when higher yields weigh on its short-term performance. For now, the immediate market narrative favours caution, with interest-rate expectations exerting greater influence than inflation concerns alone. AI Stocks: Are Falling Valuations Creating Opportunities? Artificial intelligence-related shares are among the hardest-hit areas of the current sell-off. SanDisk has fallen a further 5% in the latest session described in the market update and is down nearly 14% over five sessions. The reported forward price-to-earnings ratio for SanDisk has declined to approximately eight times projected earnings, compared with around 22 times for the Nasdaq 100. This valuation gap has prompted renewed debate about whether some technology stocks are becoming attractive opportunities. However, a lower valuation does not automatically mean a share is undervalued. Forward price-to-earnings ratios depend on earnings forecasts, which can change as demand, competition, capital expenditure and profit margins evolve. Investors need to distinguish between a price decline that creates a genuine valuation opportunity and one that reflects a deterioration in expected earnings. Bullish scenario: If AI-related demand and earnings remain resilient, lower valuations could attract investors seeking exposure to long-term technology growth. Stabilising Treasury yields would also help reduce pressure on high-growth shares. Bearish scenario: If interest rates remain elevated and earnings forecasts are revised lower, technology stocks could face further declines despite cheaper headline valuations. The recovery in AI shares is therefore likely to depend on a combination of stabilising macroeconomic conditions and continued confidence in future earnings growth. Bullish Scenario: Inflation Eases and Risk Appetite Returns Global markets could recover if subsequent US inflation data shows that price pressures are moderating. Such evidence could reduce expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, ease upward pressure on Treasury yields and improve the relative attractiveness of equities. Under this scenario, technology and AI stocks could rebound as investors reassess valuations, while gold could benefit if real yields and the dollar retreat. A stabilisation in crude oil prices would further reduce concerns about persistent inflation. The FTSE 100 could remain relatively resilient, although a broad return to risk-taking might narrow its recent performance advantage over technology-heavy indices. Bearish Scenario: Persistent Inflation Deepens the Sell-Off The downside risk would increase if inflation remains elevated and oil prices continue to rise. Markets could price in a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy path, pushing Treasury yields higher and increasing pressure on equities and bonds. Technology, AI and small-cap stocks would remain vulnerable to valuation compression and higher financing costs. Gold could face further pressure if yields and the dollar strengthen, while broader equity weakness could intensify if earnings guidance deteriorates. In this environment, the FTSE 100 may continue to outperform on a relative basis due to its sector composition, but it would not be immune to a sustained global market decline. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next The coming sessions are likely to be driven by the interaction between inflation, interest-rate expectations, oil prices and corporate earnings. Key indicators to monitor include: US inflation data: Further evidence of persistent price pressures could strengthen expectations for restrictive monetary policy. Treasury yields: Continued increases would signal tighter financial conditions and potentially intensify pressure on equities and gold. Federal Reserve expectations: Changes in the market-implied probability of a rate hike could trigger rapid repricing across asset classes. Brent crude oil: Sustained prices above $106 could reinforce concerns about energy-driven inflation. Corporate earnings guidance: Investors will look for signs that companies can sustain profits despite higher financing costs and uncertain demand. AI stock valuations: The sustainability of earnings forecasts will be crucial in determining whether recent declines represent value or deteriorating fundamentals. Defensive sector performance: Continued strength in healthcare, consumer staples and energy would indicate that investors remain cautious about the wider outlook. A more durable market recovery is likely to require clearer evidence that inflation is easing without a substantial deterioration in corporate earnings or economic growth. Market Outlook: Inflation Remains the Dominant Force The latest inflation shock has shifted the focus of global markets away from earnings and towards the future path of interest rates. Rising Treasury yields are weighing on US equities and bonds, while gold is under pressure and technology shares are experiencing a sharp valuation reassessment. The FTSE 100 is showing relative resilience as investors favour defensive sectors, but elevated oil prices remain a risk to the broader inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the decline in AI stocks is creating potential opportunities, although investors must assess earnings quality and valuation assumptions rather than relying on price declines alone. The central question is whether inflation proves persistent enough to keep monetary policy restrictive. If price pressures ease, markets could stabilise and risk appetite may recover. If inflation remains elevated, volatility could continue across equities, bonds, commodities and currencies. Currency Hedger View Inflation-driven volatility can have significant implications for businesses with international revenues, foreign-currency liabilities or cross-border supplier payments. Changes in US interest-rate expectations can move the dollar against major and emerging-market currencies, while elevated oil prices can alter import costs and increase pressure on businesses exposed to energy-intensive supply chains. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Businesses should monitor the relationship between US inflation, Treasury yields, the dollar and energy prices when evaluating currency exposure and planning international payments. Rapid changes in market expectations can affect exchange rates even when the underlying business transaction remains unchanged. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger to explore its FX services, or visit currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Equities, bonds, commodities, precious metals and foreign exchange can be volatile and involve risk. Market scenarios and forecasts are conditional on evolving economic data, monetary policy expectations and geopolitical developments.

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Markets

October 14, 2026

Bank of America Disappoints: A $1.2 Billion Fine and Weaker Trading Weigh on Earnings

Key takeaways The second-largest U.S. bank is paying the price for its negligence in money laundering — its stock is down more than 4% Bank of America (BAC.US) reported a sharp decline in third-quarter earnings, weighed down by a one-time regulatory fine of $1.2 billion and weaker trading results. Net income totaled $6.9 billion ($0.91 per share) , compared with $8.3 billion ($1.04) a year earlier. Revenue reached $30.0 billion and fell short of the forecast of $30.7 billion. After adjusting for a one-time charge, adjusted EPS came in at $1.08—and it was this charge that reduced net income by 17 cents per share. The company's stock is down more than 4% ahead of today's opening on Wall Street. Source: Yahoo Finance The biggest negative surprise turned out to be the fine imposed by the Treasury Department, which was disclosed the day before the results were released. The bank will pay over $1.21 billion for widespread failures in detecting money laundering and sanctions violations—specifically, for failing to report suspicious transactions totaling more than $5 billion. This is the third-highest fine in U.S. Treasury history, and the bank is subject to a consent order requiring it to cooperate with an external entity in monitoring transactions. The market interprets this as a sign of growing regulatory pressure and raises questions about the quality of controls under CEO Brian Moynihan. The second disappointment was trading . Revenue from trading activities fell 5% to $5.1 billion, well below the expected $5.41 billion. Both segments underperformed: FICC (fixed income, currencies, and commodities) plummeted by 11–17% to $2.55 billion (consensus: $2.86 billion), while equities fell by 4.5% to $2.51 billion (expected: $2.63 billion). This contrasts with strong equity results at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, as well as Citigroup’s best bond quarter in a decade. BofA, with a limited presence in transactions related to the AI boom, missed out on a significant portion of the heightened trading activity. However, not everything went poorly. Investment banking , although fees fell by 11% to $1.8 billion, beat the consensus estimate ($1.77 billion), driven by debt underwriting. A strong point was net interest income (NII) , which rose 8% to $16.45 billion, exceeding forecasts thanks to high interest rates. Credit quality also came as a positive surprise—loan loss reserves totaled $1.27 billion versus the expected $1.49 billion, signaling that U.S. consumers are holding up surprisingly well despite high energy prices and inflation above target. If the stock opens at levels similar to current pre-market indications, there will be a breakout of an important volume cluster, which effectively serves as the main control point for the bank’s stock price this year. A break below this level, followed by a series of daily closes lower, could theoretically set the stage for further downside moves toward the $48 per share range. On the other hand, if the declines are quickly halted at an important support level, the 200-day EMA—which has not been tested since September 28—may remain a key resistance level (orange curve). Source: XTB

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Markets

October 14, 2026

Trade of the day: US30

Facts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are attempting to recover losses after a correction that ended near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200, red line on the daily chart). On October 13, after rising to 52,600 points, the US30 index pulled back by around 800 points and failed to break out of the descending price channel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the October 13 session 0.35% lower and is up 6.8% year-to-date, compared with gains of 13.8% for the S&P 500 and 20.1% for the Nasdaq 100. As of October 14, the DJIA trades at higher valuation multiples than the S&P 500 based on price-to-sales, price-to-book, EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA, while its P/E TTM is almost identical at 25.2 versus 25.5 for the S&P 500. Slightly less than half of DJIA constituents are trading above their 50-session moving average, while around 37% are trading below their 200-session moving average. Recommendation Short position on US30 at market price Stop Loss: 52,700 Take Profit: 50,950 View Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes a relatively large number of “old economy” companies and comparatively limited exposure to the technology sector, could theoretically act as a stabilizer against technology-sector concentration risk, the index has so far remained a clear laggard. Limited earnings and revenue growth among DJIA constituents may translate into weaker capital inflows and lower investor interest at a time when US Treasury yields remain high and have been rising for several weeks. Unlike the technology sector, where strong investor participation is partly supported by expectations of future business expansion, companies in the DJIA tend to be more mature and predictable, leaving them with less of a growth-driven buffer against persistently high bond yields. Yesterday’s sharp sell-off pushed US30 back into its descending price channel and took place on elevated downside volume, further complicating the index’s technical setup. Next week, several additional DJIA constituents are due to report earnings, including Dow Inc., Honeywell, American Express and Verizon — all of which have generally performed relatively weakly over recent months and quarters. We recommend taking a short position on DJIA with a target of 50,950 points , located near an important price-action zone, the 200-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe and a level that may also be relevant from an options-dealer positioning perspective, namely the negative gamma peak . On the other hand, we recommend placing a stop-loss order at 52,700 points , a level defined by important recent price reactions; a move above it could suggest a return of the upward trend. US30 chart (H1, D1 intervals) Source: XTB Source: XTB

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Markets

October 14, 2026

ASML disappoints on revenue but delivers stronger profits and raises guidance. What’s next for the AI sector

The Dutch AI-sector giant ASML reported Q3 revenue of EUR 11.66 billion versus EUR 11.72 billion expected, while the company’s shares fell around 4% in the initial reaction, even though net profit clearly beat consensus, reaching EUR 4.96 billion versus the EUR 4.1 billion forecast. However, at demanding valuation levels, even the smallest blemish in sales momentum can weigh on sentiment, and this appears to be exactly what we are seeing. Overall, the company’s report was very strong and also confirmed a significant increase in AI-sector demand from already elevated levels. In this context, revenue missing expectations by a few million euros should hardly be shareholders’ biggest concern — the key question is whether the report points to any other “red flags.” Looking more closely, the answer appears to be clearly no, and we see nothing in the results that poses a “threat” to the continuation of the technology-sector bull market. If anything, the report seems to support the case for improving sentiment across the AI infrastructure segment. The company narrowed its full-year revenue guidance to a range of EUR 44–45 billion, raising the lower end from the previous EUR 43 billion. Demand remains very strong, particularly due to AI-related investment, while some customers are already expressing interest in placing orders for 2029–2030. ASML believes that currently planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not be sufficient to fully meet demand, and the company continues to evaluate further capacity expansion. For the next quarter, Q4, ASML expects sales of EUR 14.2–15.2 billion, with the upper end of the range exceeding the LSEG consensus of EUR 14.2 billion. Additional support for the long-term outlook comes from Samsung and TSMC committing to the use of High NA EUV systems, which are expected to be crucial for the next generation of the most advanced semiconductors. The quality of ASML’s results was better than the headline revenue figure suggests ASML’s third-quarter results looked mixed only at first glance. Net sales came in marginally below expectations, but far more important was the scale of the positive surprise on profitability. Net profit reached EUR 4.96 billion versus around EUR 4.11 billion expected, while gross margin stood at 57.5% compared with approximately 56.1% expected. This suggests that ASML is not only delivering very high sales volumes but is also maintaining exceptionally strong unit economics across its business. An important contributor was Installed Base Management sales of EUR 3.3 billion, which exceeded the company’s earlier assumptions. Rising customer spending on upgrades and improvements to the efficiency of already installed systems increases the share of more recurring revenue and partially reduces ASML’s dependence on the delivery cycle for new machines. At the same time, the company sold 113 new lithography systems and 8 used systems, compared with 86 and 5, respectively, in the previous quarter, pointing to a clear acceleration in operating activity. The key takeaway is therefore not the modest revenue miss, but the fact that ASML is generating substantially more profit from every euro of revenue than the market had expected. For a business with such high barriers to entry and such a unique technological position, this means the company’s competitive advantage is increasingly being reflected in margins, rather than merely in nominal revenue growth. ASML raises its outlook for the third time: the AI boom is already translating into hard numbers An even stronger element of the report was the outlook. ASML improved its 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter, narrowing its expected sales range. At the same time, the company now expects a full-year gross margin of around 56%, compared with its previous range of 54% to 56%. Raising the lower end of guidance, rather than simply lifting the upside scenario, is particularly important. It suggests that management is becoming increasingly confident about both demand realization and profitability toward the end of the year. For Q4, ASML forecasts EUR 14.2–15.2 billion in sales and a gross margin of around 57%. The upper end of the revenue range exceeds previous market expectations, while the projected margin remains exceptionally high for a manufacturer of such complex industrial equipment. The company also expects its EUV business to grow by more than 45% this year, while the non-EUV segment is projected to expand by around 20% year over year. This is particularly important from a valuation perspective. For several quarters, the market has been paying a premium for the expected increase in AI infrastructure investment, but the current report shows that this is no longer purely a story based on future expectations. AI-related demand is increasingly visible in sales, margins and repeatedly upgraded forecasts. In practice, this means the main question for investors is gradually shifting away from whether demand exists at all and toward how long ASML can sustain its current growth rate under existing supply constraints. ASML’s problem is not a lack of demand, but its ability to meet it The most strategically important information in the report, however, is the extension of the order horizon far beyond the current investment cycle. Management indicated that some customers are beginning to express interest in equipment deliveries as far out as 2029 and 2030. For an industrial company, this represents an exceptionally long period of demand visibility and illustrates how aggressively the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers are planning future production capacity. Even more importantly, ASML acknowledged that currently planned production capacity for 2027 and 2028 will not be sufficient to fully meet projected customer demand. The company had already planned to increase production capacity by around 30%, but it is now evaluating the possibility of further expansion. This changes the nature of the investment risk: at least at this stage, the main constraint on growth does not appear to be demand for ASML systems, but rather the company’s and its supply chain’s ability to scale production quickly enough. For shareholders, this represents both an opportunity and a risk. A persistent excess of demand over supply could strengthen pricing power, capacity utilization and margins, particularly for the most advanced EUV systems. On the other hand, further production expansion requires investment, coordination across a highly complex supply chain and the maintenance of extraordinary technological precision. For ASML, the key question over the coming quarters is therefore not so much “will AI continue to generate demand?” but rather how quickly the company can convert its multi-year backlog and customer interest into actual deliveries, revenue and free cash flow. ASML share price chart (D1 interval) Today, ASML shares are likely to open with a downside gap, although buying activity during the session cannot be ruled out. From a technical perspective, a potentially bearish double-top formation is developing, and if the shares were to fall toward EUR 1,400, where they would also be testing the EMA200 (red line), the risk of a more sustained trend reversal would become considerably more meaningful. For bulls, holding above EUR 1,450, around the September price gap, may prove crucial. The key resistance area currently appears to be around EUR 1,600. Source: XTB

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Forex Trading

October 14, 2026

Chart of the Day – EUR/USD attempts to rebound ahead of US inflation data

EUR/USD is in focus today ahead of the US CPI release scheduled for 14:30 Polish time. The market expects inflation to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% previously and to 0.6% m/m from 0.4% previously . Higher gasoline prices may push up the September headline reading, although underlying inflationary pressures excluding food and energy are expected to show signs of moderation. In an extreme scenario that could support a renewed pullback in EUR/USD, we would expect higher-than-forecast readings for both headline and core CPI. Such an outcome would suggest that inflationary pressures are gradually broadening beyond volatile energy and food prices. On the other hand, CPI readings in line with or below expectations, accompanied by relatively subdued core inflation, could provide an interesting backdrop for a rebound in EUR/USD and potentially push market expectations for US rate hikes from 2026 into 2027. EUR/USD chart (H1, D1 intervals) EUR/USD is currently trading at its lowest levels since late spring 2025, although the pair has started to stabilize around 1.12. We can also see the RSI beginning to rebound from oversold territory and approaching 33, while a potentially bullish moving-average crossover is forming on the MACD. The key short-term resistance may be around 1.135, defined by recent price reactions in this area, while the nearest support is located around 1.114. Source: XTB The importance of the 1.135 resistance area is also reinforced by the fact that it corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downward wave that began in late summer this year. Price reactions may also emerge around 1.128 along the way, although it is worth stressing that a rebound is by no means guaranteed. A move back toward 1.114 could potentially open the way for EUR/USD to decline toward the 1.10 area. Source: XTB

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Markets

October 14, 2026

Steel Price Forecast: Weakening Global Demand Pushes Rebar Toward CNY 3,080 per Ton

Steel rebar futures move toward CNY 3,080 per ton, approaching two-month lows as a weaker global demand outlook weighs on the market. The World Steel Association has revised its forecast, now projecting global steel demand to contract by 0.1% in 2026, compared with its previous expectation of 0.3% growth. The downgrade highlights a slower-than-anticipated recovery, with China’s prolonged property downturn and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict adding pressure to the outlook. The outlook for 2027 has also weakened, with projected global demand growth reduced to 1.7% from 2.2%. While India remains a major source of potential demand growth, the near-term direction of steel prices is likely to depend on the pace of China’s construction recovery, industrial activity and the ability of other major markets to offset persistent weakness. Market Snapshot Steel rebar futures: Approaching CNY 3,080 per ton Price trend: Downward pressure, nearing two-month lows Global demand forecast for 2026: A contraction of 0.1% Global demand forecast for 2027: Growth of 1.7%, revised down from 2.2% China demand forecast: Expected to decline by 2% in 2026 India demand forecast: Growth of 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027 Global Steel Demand Outlook Deteriorates The World Steel Association’s revised projections signal that the expected recovery in steel consumption is taking longer and proving more uneven than anticipated. Rather than expanding modestly in 2026, global demand is now expected to contract slightly. Steel demand is closely tied to construction, infrastructure spending, manufacturing and industrial investment. When these sectors lose momentum, steel producers can face weaker orders, greater competition for sales and pressure on prices. The downgrade to the 2027 outlook also suggests that a rapid rebound may be difficult to achieve. Although demand growth is still expected next year, the lower projection points to a more measured recovery across the global market. For steel futures, the key issue is whether actual consumption improves enough to absorb available supply. If demand remains weak while production stays elevated, prices could face further downward pressure. China’s Property Downturn Remains a Major Headwind China remains central to the global steel outlook, and its property sector continues to weigh on consumption. The World Steel Association expects Chinese steel demand to decline by 2% in 2026, as the property downturn persists longer than previously anticipated. The construction and property sectors are important sources of steel demand, particularly for rebar used in reinforced concrete. Continued weakness in property development can therefore reduce demand for construction materials and limit the potential for a sustained price recovery. China’s broader industrial activity and infrastructure investment will also matter. Stronger infrastructure spending could provide some support, but it may not fully offset a prolonged downturn in property-related demand. Until there is clearer evidence of stabilisation in China’s construction sector, the country is likely to remain a major source of uncertainty for steel prices. Europe’s Construction Recovery Remains Uneven Europe’s steel demand outlook has also weakened, with the construction recovery proving slower and less consistent than expected. A subdued construction market can restrict demand for rebar and other finished steel products, limiting the ability of European producers to benefit from an improvement in broader economic conditions. The pace of infrastructure investment, industrial activity and construction spending will be important indicators to watch. A stronger recovery could help offset weakness elsewhere, while continued delays would reinforce the subdued global demand picture. The combination of uncertainty in Europe and declining demand in China leaves the global steel market increasingly reliant on growth from other regions. India Provides a Key Source of Demand Growth India remains the fastest-growing major steel market globally, with demand projected to increase by 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027. This expansion offers a significant counterbalance to weakness in China and Europe. Continued growth in construction, infrastructure development and industrial activity could support higher steel consumption and create opportunities for producers serving the Indian market. However, strong Indian demand does not automatically translate into higher global steel prices. The overall impact will depend on its scale relative to weakness in larger markets, as well as production levels, trade flows and the availability of steel supplies. India is therefore an important supportive factor, but the global demand balance remains challenging. Bullish Scenario: Demand Stabilisation Supports a Recovery Steel prices could recover if China’s property market begins to stabilise, European construction activity improves and infrastructure spending strengthens across major economies. A better-than-expected recovery in demand could help reduce the gap between steel production and consumption. Continued expansion in India would add further support, particularly if other major markets begin to recover. The outlook could also improve if steel producers adjust output to reflect weaker demand, helping limit excess supply and supporting prices. Under this scenario, rebar futures could move away from recent lows as market participants reassess the likelihood of a broader demand recovery. Bearish Scenario: Weak Consumption Extends Price Pressure The bearish outlook would strengthen if China’s property downturn deepens, European construction remains subdued and global steel consumption falls short of current expectations. A slower recovery in 2027 would also limit confidence in a sustained improvement in demand. If production remains high despite weak consumption, inventories could build and intensify competition among producers. Disruptions associated with the Middle East conflict may add to uncertainty by affecting supply chains, costs and business confidence. The impact on prices, however, will depend on how these disruptions interact with regional production and actual steel consumption. In this environment, rebar futures could remain under pressure around current levels or test lower prices if demand deteriorates further. Steel Price Forecast: What to Watch Next The near-term steel outlook remains cautious, with the revised global demand projections highlighting persistent weakness in key construction markets. The market’s next direction will depend on whether consumption begins to improve or whether further downgrades become necessary. Key developments to monitor include: China’s property market: Signs of stabilisation in construction and property development could improve expectations for rebar consumption. Chinese infrastructure spending: Additional investment could help offset weakness in property-related demand. European construction activity: A stronger recovery would support regional steel consumption. Indian steel demand: Continued growth could provide an important source of global demand expansion. Producer output and inventories: Production adjustments and inventory trends will help determine whether weaker demand translates into sustained price pressure. Middle East developments: Further disruption could affect supply chains, costs and market confidence. A durable recovery in steel prices is likely to require clearer evidence of improving consumption, particularly in China, or meaningful adjustments to production that bring supply more closely into line with demand. Market Outlook: Steel Faces a Challenging Recovery Steel rebar futures remain under pressure as the global demand outlook deteriorates, with prices approaching CNY 3,080 per ton. The World Steel Association’s revised forecasts point to a difficult 2026, followed by a slower recovery in 2027 than previously anticipated. China’s prolonged property downturn and Europe’s uneven construction recovery remain major headwinds. India offers a strong source of demand growth, but its expansion may not be sufficient on its own to offset weakness across other major markets. The outlook therefore remains cautious. A sustained recovery will depend on stronger end-user demand, improved construction activity and a better balance between steel production and consumption. Until those conditions become clearer, price rallies may face resistance from the weaker global demand backdrop. Currency Hedger View Steel’s weakening demand outlook also matters for businesses exposed to commodity prices, international procurement and cross-border payments. Changes in steel prices can influence purchasing costs, supplier negotiations and margins, while movements in currencies can alter the cost of imported raw materials and finished products. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Businesses importing steel or purchasing materials across currencies should monitor both commodity-price developments and exchange-rate movements when assessing future costs and managing currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger to explore its FX services, or visit currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity futures involve significant risk, and prices can be volatile. Forecasts are conditional on changing economic conditions, demand trends and market developments.

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Banks

October 14, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI FX steps support INR but raise hedging costs – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan explains that recent RBI FX measures have supported spot Indian Rupee, while temporarily disrupting derivatives liquidity. Offshore INR forward premiums fell sharply after restrictions on non-resident NDF access and higher hedge costs. These actions reduced speculative Dollar demand and helped INR rally, though at the expense of wider bid-ask spreads and less liquid onshore forwards. FX measures tighten INR hedging "The RBI’s latest FX measures have supported spot INR to the 95.2 level but added some costs to rupee derivatives liquidity." "Reuters reported that USD/INR forward quotes were temporarily withdrawn amid uncertainty over whether the 20% cash-margin requirement covered interbank trades, although the RBI subsequently indicated that it did not." "Until formal clarification is issued, cautious market-making could widen bid-ask spreads, raise hedging costs and shift activity offshore." "We note that offshore INR forward premiums fell sharply across all tenors between 12 and 13 October. The broad-based move suggests that offshore demand for INR downside protection was rapidly unwound after the RBI restricted non-resident NDF access to genuine hedging, raised the cost of FX hedges and provided state oil companies with a dedicated dollar window." "Together, these measures reduced speculative NDF demand and spot dollar buying, helping INR rally by around 1.5%, albeit at the cost of higher hedging expenses and less liquid onshore forward markets."

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Banks

October 14, 2026

US Dollar: Fed inflation focus into October FOMC – Danske Bank

Danske Bank strategists highlight September Consumer Price Index (CPI as this week's key US release, with headline and core inflation expected to edge higher year-on-year despite moderating monthly readings. The Fed will assess whether underlying price pressures are broadening, including those linked to AI investment. They believe only a clear upside inflation surprise would prompt the Fed to signal another rate hike at its October meeting. CPI print seen key for Fed "In the US, the most important data release of the week will be the September CPI, released this afternoon." "We forecast headline inflation at 0.5% m/m SA, 3.6% y/y (prior: 0.6% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and core inflation at 0.2% m/m SA, 2.5% y/y (prior: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y), with energy prices being the main driver of the expected pickup in headline inflation." "For the Fed, focus will be on whether underlying inflation pressures are broadening. With this being the final inflation print before the October FOMC meeting, and recent Fed communication signalling little urgency to hike again, we think it would take a clear upside surprise for the Fed to signal a rate hike already in October. " "On the wires in the US, Fed's Waller (voter) noted that AI-related demand is already spilling over into inflation, while the productivity gains that could eventually ease price pressures will take time to emerge." "Chicago Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter) struck a similar tone, warning that AI-related investment is beginning to look like aggregate overheating and risks broadening into more persistent inflation." "This supports the case for keeping policy tight in the near term and leaves the comments hawkish on the margin."

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Banks

October 14, 2026

Euro: Rebound tests key resistance band against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight a strong EUR/USD rebound to around 1.1200 after recent oversold weakness. In the near term, they see scope for the Euro to challenge resistance at 1.1220, while a sustained break would signal that the month-long downtrend has stabilised. However, they still flag deeply oversold conditions and acknowledge that further downside cannot be fully ruled out. Euro recovery challenges 1.1220 barrier "24-HOUR VIEW: EUR fell sharply to a low of 1.1151 two days ago. Yesterday, we stated that “further EUR weakness is not ruled out, but given the oversold conditions, any decline should stay within a 1.1145/1.1185 range.” We were incorrect, as EUR rebounded strongly to a high of 1.1204. The advance has gained some momentum, and today, the rebound could potentially break above the strong resistance at 1.1220. We do not expect the major resistance at 1.1270 to come into view. However, it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Support is at 1.1185, followed by 1.1170." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted yesterday that “the weakness in EUR that started more than a month ago has not quite stabilised, and EUR could decline gradually toward 1.1115.” We did not expect EUR to rebound strongly to a high of 1.1204. Downward momentum is fading rapidly with the strong rebound, and a break above 1.1220 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the decline that started more than a month ago has stabilised."

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Markets

October 14, 2026

Gold draws support from retreating USD; holds above $4,150 as traders await US CPI report

Gold steadies above $4,150 as USD extends its retracement slide from an 18-month high. Oil-driven inflation risks lift Fed rate hike bets, which should cap the non-yielding bullion. Traders also opt to wait for the latest US inflation figures and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. Gold (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, holding above $4,150 as traders now look forward to the latest US inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due for release later today, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Apart from this, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday will be looked upon for more cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in driving the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are assigning a nearly 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. The bets were lifted by the recent hawkish comments from influential FOMC members, signaling openness to additional interest rate hikes before the end of the year amid persistent price pressures. Moreover, worries about energy-driven inflation risks underpin prospects for further Fed tightening, which might continue to act as a headwind for gold. In fact, crude oil prices rose to a nearly two-week top amid supply concerns due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Fighting between the Iran-allied Houthis and Saudi Arabia has intensified over the past week in retaliation for the kingdom's support of ‌Yemeni government forces. Moreover, Houthi energy terminals and fuel reserves in Yemen were reportedly struck by a Saudi-led coalition. Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran also continued to simmer amid the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, US Central Command rejected claims by the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy that the strategic waterway is under Iran’s control and that any approaching US Navy warships would be sunk. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play. The USD, however, drifts lower for the second straight day, retreating further from its highest level since April 2025 and offering some support to gold. That said, the aforementioned bearish fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying and a breakout through a short-term trading range held over the past two weeks or so before positioning for any meaningful upside for the XAU/USD pair. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis Barring last week's knee-jerk fall to a two-month low, the range-bound price action might be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a decline from the August swing high. The Gold price, however, holds just above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,115, suggesting a tentative floor. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in negative territory with a slightly contracting bearish histogram that hints at fading downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 points to neutral momentum, reinforcing the idea of consolidation within a broader corrective phase rather than a fresh bullish leg. Hence, any subsequent move up might continue to face stiff resistance at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, at $4,193. This is followed by the top boundary of the trading range, near the $4,215-$4,220 region, and the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,238, with further barriers seen at $4,325, corresponding to the 50.0% retracement level. Above these, the 38.2% retracement at $4,412 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,519 mark progressively stronger supply zones. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at $4,115, ahead of the prior cycle low area at $3,957.83. A sustained break below $4,115 would likely open the door for a deeper slide toward that lower structural base.

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Markets

October 14, 2026

Copper Price Outlook: Chilean Mine Strikes and Supply Disruptions Support Prices Above $6.70

Copper prices are extending their advance as labour disputes and adverse weather conditions disrupt mining operations in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer. Futures have climbed above $6.70 per pound, moving closer to record highs as uncertainty surrounding production at major mines adds to concerns about global supply availability. The potential strike at BHP’s Escondida mine, industrial action at Antofagasta’s Centinela operation and weather-related disruption at Codelco’s El Teniente mine are reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to supply interruptions. At the same time, demand expectations remain supported by expanding investment in AI data centres, semiconductor manufacturing, battery storage and electric vehicles across Asia. The outlook for copper therefore reflects a tightening balance between near-term mining risks and longer-term demand from electrification and technology infrastructure. Prices could remain supported if disruptions persist, although the sustainability of the rally will also depend on global industrial activity, Chinese demand and the extent to which higher prices encourage additional supply. Market Snapshot Copper futures: Above $6.70 per pound. Price trend: Advancing towards record levels. Primary supply risk: Labour disputes at major Chilean copper mines. Key producer: Chile, the world’s largest copper producer. Additional disruption: Adverse weather and suspended open-pit operations at El Teniente. Demand drivers: AI data centres, semiconductor production, battery storage and electric vehicles. Key market question: Whether supply disruptions will be sustained long enough to tighten the global copper balance. Chilean Mine Strikes Increase Supply Uncertainty Chile remains central to the global copper market, making disruptions at its largest mining operations particularly important for prices. Workers at BHP’s Escondida mine are preparing to begin a strike after wage negotiations reportedly failed to reach an agreement before the deadline. Escondida is a major source of global copper production, meaning prolonged industrial action could affect supply availability and reinforce concerns about potential disruptions to deliveries. Meanwhile, two unions at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine have also launched strikes, adding another source of uncertainty across Chile’s mining sector. The combined effect of labour disputes at major operations can be significant. Even when interruptions are temporary, uncertainty over production schedules, shipment commitments and the timing of a return to normal operations can prompt buyers to reassess their supply requirements. For copper prices, the duration of these disputes will be crucial. A swift resolution would reduce the immediate supply risk premium, while prolonged strikes or further industrial action could increase upward pressure on futures. El Teniente Disruption Adds to Mining Risks Weather-related disruption at Codelco’s El Teniente mine is creating an additional supply concern. Two workers died after an avalanche struck the operation, where open-pit activities had already been suspended because of unfavourable weather conditions. The incident highlights the operational risks facing large mining projects, particularly when adverse conditions affect access, safety and production schedules. Any extended suspension could add to concerns about the availability of Chilean copper. Safety remains the overriding priority following a fatal incident, and the impact on production will depend on operational assessments and decisions about when activities can safely resume. For the wider market, the key consideration is whether these disruptions remain isolated or combine with labour disputes elsewhere to produce a more persistent reduction in supply. If several major operations experience interruptions simultaneously, copper buyers may face greater uncertainty over near-term availability, potentially supporting prices even if broader economic demand remains mixed. AI Infrastructure and Electrification Support Copper Demand While supply disruptions are providing the immediate catalyst for higher prices, longer-term demand expectations remain an important part of the copper outlook. AI data centres require extensive electrical infrastructure, including power distribution systems, cabling, cooling equipment and grid connections. The expansion of computing capacity is therefore supporting expectations for additional copper demand as technology companies and utilities invest in the infrastructure required to operate increasingly power-intensive facilities. Semiconductor manufacturing and battery storage systems are also contributing to the broader investment cycle. At the same time, electric vehicles and charging infrastructure continue to underpin expectations for copper consumption across transport and energy networks. These demand drivers provide a structural argument for copper, but they do not guarantee uninterrupted price appreciation. The timing of investment, manufacturing activity, project financing and the pace of infrastructure development will all influence actual consumption. China’s industrial activity and demand for refined copper will also remain important. Even when long-term demand prospects are favourable, a slowdown in manufacturing or construction can weigh on prices over shorter periods. The market must therefore balance immediate supply risks against evidence that end-user demand is strong enough to absorb available production. Bullish Scenario: Prolonged Strikes Tighten the Market A bullish scenario would develop if labour disputes at Escondida and Centinela persist, El Teniente faces an extended interruption, or additional disruptions emerge across major producing regions. Under these conditions, expectations for available mine supply could deteriorate, prompting buyers to secure alternative sources and potentially increasing competition for deliverable copper. Continued investment in AI data centres, electricity networks, battery storage and electric vehicles would reinforce the bullish outlook if demand remains resilient while production faces constraints. Copper could then extend its advance towards record territory, particularly if market participants begin to anticipate a more persistent supply deficit. The strongest upside case would involve several simultaneous mine disruptions combined with firm industrial demand and limited ability for other producers to increase output quickly. Bearish Scenario: Labour Agreements and Weaker Demand Ease Pressure A bearish scenario would emerge if negotiations at major Chilean mines produce agreements, operations return to normal and weather-related restrictions ease. The removal of immediate supply risks could encourage traders to reduce the risk premium embedded in copper prices. If production and shipments recover without significant further disruption, the market may refocus on broader demand conditions. Weaker global manufacturing activity, softer Chinese industrial demand or delays in AI infrastructure and electrification investment could add to downward pressure. Higher prices may also encourage some buyers to defer purchases, reduce inventories or seek material substitution where technically and economically feasible. Under this scenario, copper could retreat from recent highs despite favourable longer-term demand themes. Copper Price Forecast: What to Watch Next Copper’s near-term direction will depend heavily on whether current supply disruptions translate into measurable production and shipment losses. Prices above $6.70 per pound reflect heightened sensitivity to events at major mines, while demand expectations provide additional support. The next developments to monitor include: Escondida labour negotiations: Whether a strike begins, how long it lasts and whether production or shipments are affected. Centinela industrial action: The duration of the strikes and their impact on operating output. El Teniente operations: Safety assessments, weather conditions and the timeline for resuming suspended activities. Other mining disruptions: Whether labour disputes or operational problems spread to additional copper-producing regions. Chinese demand: Manufacturing activity, industrial investment and refined copper consumption. AI and electricity infrastructure: Whether investment continues to support copper-intensive projects. Global economic conditions: Manufacturing growth, interest-rate expectations and the outlook for industrial commodities. The near-term bias remains sensitive to supply-side developments. A sustained move higher would require evidence that disruptions are materially constraining availability or that demand is strengthening faster than expected. Conversely, the resolution of labour disputes and weaker industrial indicators could trigger a correction. Currency Hedger View Copper is both an industrial commodity and an indicator of expectations for global manufacturing, electrification and infrastructure investment. Its price movements can influence businesses involved in construction, electronics, electrical equipment, transport and industrial production. For companies purchasing copper or copper-intensive components internationally, higher commodity prices can increase procurement costs and place pressure on operating margins. Exchange-rate movements can compound this effect when purchases are invoiced in US dollars but revenues or budgets are denominated in another currency. Businesses exposed to both commodity prices and foreign exchange should therefore assess these risks together rather than treating them as separate cost factors. Monitoring copper-market developments alongside currency movements can support more informed budgeting, supplier-payment planning and exposure management. Manage Your International Currency Exposure Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about managing international currency exposure with Currency Hedger, or visit the Currency Hedger website. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Market outlooks and forecasts are conditional and may change as new information becomes available. Copper futures, commodities and foreign exchange involve risk, and prices can move sharply in either direction. Businesses and market participants should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 14, 2026

XAG/USD remains above $59.00 amid dovish Fed remarks

Silver gained as New York Fed President Williams signaled only one more rate hike before capping increases through 2027. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates around a 77% chance rates remain unchanged this month, but an 88% likelihood of a December hike. Oil prices rose as escalating conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels heightened Middle East supply disruption fears. Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $59.20 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Wednesday. Non-yielding Silver gains following dovish remarks from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Speaking on Tuesday, Williams noted that while he maintains his view that one more rate hike may be appropriate this year, he does not foresee additional rate increases in 2027. CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are currently pricing in roughly a 77% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month, while assigning an 88% chance of a rate hike in December. Market focus now shifts to the US September CPI inflation data scheduled for release later in the North American session, which could offer clearer direction on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy path. Headline US CPI is expected to show a year-over-year rise of 3.6% in September, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, is projected to increase to 2.5% year-over-year from 2.4% in the previous month. Geopolitical tensions remained a key focus as oil prices extended their gains amid escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels, intensifying concerns over potential Middle East supply disruptions. Energy complex stays resilient as tanker attacks escalate According to TD Securities, “strength across the energy market is hard to shake as tanker attacks escalate,” underscoring the firm’s view that ongoing security risks are helping to sustain robust pricing across the oil complex rather than allowing any meaningful easing in market tensions. Adding to the cautious global sentiment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of significant risks to international economic growth and financial stability. The organization highlighted threats stemming from a potential slowdown in the AI investment boom, mounting debt levels, and a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. AI and semiconductor demand stay resilient despite looming slowdown Economists at DBS highlight that, despite a more challenging financing backdrop, there is still "limited evidence of a significant slowdown in AI investment or semiconductor demand." They point out that hyperscaler capital expenditure has "maintained robust yoy growth through 2Q," underscoring the strength of current AI-related spending. However, DBS also notes that this pace is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely, citing Bloomberg forecasts that growth is set to "moderate from 95% this year to 39% in 2027," suggesting a gradual normalization in the AI and semiconductor investment cycle over the medium term. Technical Analysis: In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.20, extending a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair’s slide below these trend references suggests that rallies are likely to be capped by overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.87 stays below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive oversold rebound. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the short-term nine-period EMA near $60.21, with a stronger barrier at the 50-period EMA around $62.99, where sellers may reassert control if prices attempt a recovery. With no clear nearby structural support indicated, the metal appears vulnerable to further weakness until buyers can reclaim at least the $60.21 level, which would be the first step toward easing the current bearish bias. XAG/USD: Daily Chart

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Energies

October 14, 2026

European Natural Gas Price Outlook: Supply Risks and Low Storage Keep Prices Elevated

European natural gas prices remain under pressure from tightening supply conditions, below-average storage levels and the risk of increased heating demand as colder weather approaches. Prices hover near €87 per megawatt-hour, close to their highest levels since December 2022, as the loss of Gulf liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies intensifies competition for available cargoes. Although additional LNG exports from the United States, Canada and Nigeria are helping to offset some of the supply shortfall, Europe faces continued challenges in rebuilding its gas inventories ahead of the winter demand period. Unplanned outages at Norwegian gas infrastructure are adding further pressure by reducing pipeline export capacity. With storage facilities only 73.94% full and forecasts pointing to colder-than-usual conditions in parts of Central Europe, the market remains vulnerable to further price increases. The near-term outlook will depend on LNG availability, Norwegian pipeline flows, weather developments and the pace at which Europe draws down its stored gas. Market Snapshot European natural gas prices: Around €87/MWh. Price trend: Near the highest levels since December 2022. European gas storage: 73.94% full. Key supply risk: Reduced Gulf LNG availability. Additional supply constraint: Unplanned Norwegian gas infrastructure outages. Weather outlook: Colder-than-usual conditions possible, particularly in Central Europe. Key market concern: Competition for spot LNG cargoes and the challenge of replenishing storage before winter. Supply Constraints Keep European Gas Prices Elevated Europe’s natural gas market faces a difficult combination of reduced LNG availability and restricted pipeline flows. The loss of Gulf LNG supplies has intensified competition among importing regions for spot cargoes, making it more difficult for European buyers to secure additional volumes at favourable prices. Increased exports from the United States, Canada and Nigeria provide an important source of alternative supply. However, additional shipments do not necessarily eliminate the shortfall, particularly when other regions are competing for the same cargoes. Norway remains another critical component of Europe’s gas supply system. Unplanned outages at Norwegian infrastructure have reduced pipeline export capacity, limiting the volume of gas available to European markets through an important supply route. These constraints leave prices sensitive to further disruptions. If LNG deliveries remain insufficient or Norwegian outages persist, buyers may need to compete more aggressively for available gas, potentially sustaining elevated prices. Conversely, a recovery in pipeline flows, improved LNG availability or reduced competition from other importing regions could ease supply concerns and place downward pressure on prices. European Gas Storage Raises Winter Supply Concerns European gas storage facilities are currently 73.94% full, leaving the region exposed to changes in demand and supply as the heating season approaches. Storage provides an important buffer against interruptions in pipeline deliveries and fluctuations in LNG arrivals. However, the ability to draw on these reserves depends on how quickly temperatures fall, how much gas is consumed and whether additional supplies can be secured. Below-average storage levels become particularly concerning when supply disruptions coincide with colder weather. Higher heating demand could accelerate withdrawals, reducing the remaining buffer against further interruptions later in the winter. The market is therefore likely to focus on both the percentage of storage filled and the rate at which inventories change. A sustained recovery in storage would help ease concerns, while faster-than-expected withdrawals could reinforce upward price pressure. Colder Weather Could Increase Heating Demand Weather forecasts pointing to colder-than-usual conditions, particularly in Central Europe, introduce another potential source of volatility. Lower temperatures generally increase demand for heating, raising the volume of gas required by households, businesses and energy providers. If colder weather arrives earlier or persists for longer than expected, European consumption could increase at a time when storage remains below historical averages and supply routes face disruption. This combination could force buyers to rely more heavily on stored gas and compete for additional LNG cargoes. However, weather forecasts remain subject to change. A milder-than-expected winter would reduce heating demand and could allow Europe to manage its available inventories more comfortably. For prices, the interaction between temperature forecasts and supply availability will be crucial. Colder weather alone may not guarantee a sustained rally, but its impact could be amplified if LNG deliveries remain constrained and Norwegian pipeline capacity stays reduced. Bullish Scenario: Supply Disruptions and Cold Weather Drive Prices Higher A bullish scenario would develop if Gulf LNG supply constraints persist, Norwegian infrastructure outages continue and colder weather increases European gas consumption. Under these conditions, Europe could struggle to replenish storage while facing stronger demand for heating. Competition for spot LNG cargoes would likely intensify, particularly if other importing regions also seek additional supply. Prices could remain elevated or move higher if available cargoes and pipeline deliveries fail to meet demand. Storage withdrawals faster than seasonal expectations would further increase concerns about supply security later in the winter. The strongest upside risk would emerge from simultaneous disruptions across multiple supply routes combined with a prolonged period of cold weather. Bearish Scenario: LNG Recovery and Milder Weather Ease Pressure A bearish scenario would emerge if alternative LNG supplies increase sufficiently, Norwegian gas infrastructure returns to normal operation and weather conditions prove milder than forecast. Greater supply availability would reduce competition for spot cargoes, while lower heating demand would help preserve existing inventories. If European storage withdrawals remain manageable and market participants gain confidence in the adequacy of winter supplies, the risk premium embedded in gas prices could diminish. A sustained improvement in supply conditions would therefore create room for prices to retreat from their elevated levels. However, the extent of any decline would depend on how quickly storage concerns ease and whether the loss of Gulf LNG volumes is fully offset. European Natural Gas Forecast: What to Watch Next The near-term outlook remains sensitive to supply disruptions and weather developments. Prices near €87/MWh indicate that the market is already responding to concerns over LNG availability, pipeline capacity and winter preparedness. The next sustained move will depend on whether these risks intensify or begin to ease. Key developments to monitor include: LNG deliveries: Whether additional exports from the United States, Canada and Nigeria can offset reduced Gulf supplies. Norwegian pipeline flows: The duration and severity of unplanned infrastructure outages. European storage levels: Whether inventories recover or withdrawals accelerate as temperatures fall. Central European temperatures: The timing, severity and duration of colder weather. Spot LNG competition: Demand from other importing regions and its impact on cargo prices. Winter supply security: Whether Europe can maintain sufficient reserves under adverse weather and supply conditions. The balance of risks remains tilted towards price volatility, with the potential for further gains if supply constraints coincide with stronger heating demand. A sustained decline would require clearer evidence that additional supplies and favourable weather are easing the pressure on European inventories. Currency Hedger View European natural gas prices are an important indicator of energy-market stress, with implications for businesses exposed to electricity costs, industrial production, transportation and international commodity trade. Elevated gas prices can increase operating expenses for energy-intensive businesses and contribute to inflationary pressure across the European economy. These effects may influence monetary policy expectations, economic growth prospects and the euro’s performance against other major currencies. For businesses purchasing energy or paying international suppliers, the combination of volatile commodity prices and exchange-rate movements can complicate budgeting and cash-flow planning. Even when energy prices stabilise, adverse currency movements may continue to affect the cost of imported supplies. Monitoring foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions can help businesses assess their exposure to changing market conditions. Manage Your International Currency Exposure Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about managing international currency exposure with Currency Hedger, or visit the Currency Hedger website. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Market outlooks and forecasts are conditional and may change as new information becomes available. Natural gas, commodities, foreign exchange and related financial instruments involve risk, and prices can move sharply in either direction. Businesses and market participants should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 14, 2026

Coffee Prices Outlook: Tight Arabica Supplies Clash with Record Global Production Forecasts

Coffee prices face opposing supply forces as tight availability from Colombia and concerns over El Niño-related weather disruption compete with expectations for a record global crop. December 2026 arabica futures recently gained 0.72%, while November 2026 robusta futures declined 0.55%, reflecting the different supply outlooks confronting the two coffee markets. Arabica prices continue to receive support from lower Colombian production and historically tight exchange inventories. However, stronger exports from Brazil and Vietnam, improving growing conditions across key producing regions, and forecasts for abundant global supplies could limit further gains. The direction of coffee prices will increasingly depend on Brazil’s flowering and crop development, Vietnam’s export momentum, and whether weather risks translate into measurable production losses during the 2026/27 season. Market Snapshot December 2026 arabica futures: Up 2.10 points, or 0.72%, in the latest reported session. November 2026 robusta futures: Down 19 points, or 0.55%. Colombia 2025/26 coffee production: 12.65 million bags, down 15% year-on-year. Colombia 2025/26 coffee exports: 11.78 million bags, down 12%. Brazil September coffee exports: 236,000 metric tonnes, up more than 20% year-on-year. Vietnam September coffee exports: 124,000 metric tonnes, up 53% year-on-year. ICO 2025/26 global production forecast: 183.6 million bags. ICO projected global surplus: 3 million bags. USDA 2026/27 global production forecast: A record 189.7 million bags. Arabica Prices Supported by Tight Colombian Supplies Colombia remains a key influence on arabica prices, with lower production and reduced exports limiting the availability of beans from one of the world’s leading arabica-producing countries. The Colombian Coffee Federation reports that production during the 2025/26 season fell 15% year-on-year to 12.65 million bags, while exports declined 12% to 11.78 million bags. This reduction in supply provides underlying support for arabica futures, particularly while exchange inventories remain relatively low. ICE arabica inventories fell to 217,646 bags on September 15, their lowest level in 27 years, before recovering to 260,654 bags by September 30. Although the rebound suggests some improvement in immediately available exchange stocks, inventories remain an important indicator to monitor as buyers assess supply security. Tighter Colombian availability could continue to support arabica prices if demand remains resilient and other origins cannot fully compensate for the shortfall. However, the bullish effect may weaken if Brazil delivers the larger crop currently anticipated. The market must therefore balance immediate availability concerns against the potential for increased supply later in the season. Brazil’s Crop Outlook Creates a Bearish Counterweight Brazil remains the dominant factor in the global arabica supply outlook. Expectations for a larger crop are limiting the upside potential for coffee prices, particularly as production forecasts point to a substantial recovery from the previous season. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million bags. Its forecast anticipates arabica production of 48.21 million bags, an increase of 34.8% year-on-year, while robusta output is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has also projected a record Brazilian crop of 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% from the previous year. The difference between these estimates highlights the uncertainty surrounding the final production outcome, but both forecasts point to the importance of Brazil’s recovery in shaping global supply expectations. Export activity is already showing strength. Brazil’s September coffee exports reportedly increased by more than 20% year-on-year to 236,000 metric tonnes, adding to expectations that greater availability could reach international buyers. For prices, the key question is whether Brazil’s projected production gains materialise. A large harvest would help replenish supply and potentially ease the pressure created by lower Colombian output. Conversely, weather-related damage during flowering and subsequent crop development could undermine the expected recovery. El Niño Weather Risks Could Support Coffee Prices Weather remains one of the most important upside risks for coffee markets. Concerns surrounding El Niño have raised the possibility of irregular rainfall, drought, flooding and temperature fluctuations across coffee-producing regions in South America and Asia. Brazil is particularly important because the timing and distribution of rainfall during flowering can influence the development and size of the next crop. Coffee trader Commercial has warned that El Niño could delay rainfall during September and October, a period associated with flowering in Brazil. If moisture becomes insufficient or rainfall arrives at the wrong time, flowering and fruit development could be disrupted, reducing the expected 2026/27 harvest. However, current weather observations also provide a counterargument. Somar Meteorologia reported 33.3 millimetres of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ended October 4, equivalent to 104% of the historical average. This is potentially beneficial for developing coffee trees and could support production if favourable conditions persist. The market must therefore distinguish between forecasts of future weather disruption and confirmed crop damage. El Niño concerns may generate a risk premium, but sustained price support would be more likely if adverse conditions materially affected flowering, yields or harvest expectations. Vietnam’s Rising Exports Weigh on Robusta Robusta faces a more immediate supply challenge as Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, reports strong export growth and an improving production outlook. Vietnam’s September coffee exports rose 53% year-on-year to 124,000 metric tonnes. Exports during January–September increased 16.2% to 1.45 million metric tonnes, while full-year 2025 exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tonnes. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is also projected to increase by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across Vietnam’s Central Highlands, supporting the development of coffee cherries in the country’s principal growing region. If these conditions continue, they could reinforce expectations for improved availability and place additional pressure on robusta futures. ICE robusta inventories climbed to 5,398 lots on September 24, their highest level in approximately 10.5 months, before declining to 5,115 lots in the latest reported update. The subsequent decline provides some evidence of tighter exchange availability, but the broader export and production outlook remains a potential headwind. Robusta prices could remain vulnerable if Vietnamese supply expands as expected and export shipments continue at a strong pace. Global Coffee Surplus Limits the Bullish Outlook The International Coffee Organization’s 2025/26 assessment points to a shift in the global balance from tight supply towards a surplus. The ICO projects global coffee production to increase 4.4% year-on-year to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is expected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. This implies a surplus of approximately 3 million bags, which would be the first global surplus in five years. The USDA’s outlook is more expansive for the following season. Its 2026/27 forecast anticipates global production rising 6% to a record 189.7 million bags, an increase of 10.8 million bags. Arabica production is expected to grow 12%, while robusta production is projected to decline slightly by 0.7%. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. These projections provide a substantial bearish counterweight to weather concerns and regional supply shortages. If production increases as forecast while consumption remains subdued, buyers may face less urgency to secure supplies, potentially easing prices across both arabica and robusta markets. Nevertheless, production estimates remain forecasts rather than confirmed harvest results. Any material disruption in Brazil, Colombia or Vietnam could change the projected balance and force markets to reassess the expected surplus. Bullish Scenario: Weather Disruption and Tight Arabica Stocks A bullish scenario would develop if El Niño produces adverse growing conditions in Brazil or other major coffee-producing regions, reducing the expected size of the 2026/27 crop. Arabica could benefit most directly if Colombian availability remains constrained and ICE inventories stay low. If Brazil’s flowering or fruit development is disrupted, the market may begin to price in a smaller-than-expected harvest, offsetting some of the pressure from higher production forecasts. Robusta could also find support if Vietnamese exports slow, weather conditions deteriorate or exchange inventories resume a sustained decline. Under this scenario, prices could recover as the market places greater emphasis on immediate availability and the risk of production shortfalls rather than projected global surpluses. Bearish Scenario: Record Production and Strong Exports A bearish scenario would emerge if Brazil’s larger crop develops successfully, Vietnam continues to increase exports and global production moves towards the USDA’s record forecast. Improved rainfall in key growing regions would strengthen confidence in higher yields, while sustained export volumes could increase the supply available to international buyers. A recovery in exchange inventories would add to the pressure if stocks rise consistently across both arabica and robusta markets. The projected 3-million-bag surplus for 2025/26 and the anticipated increase in global ending stocks during 2026/27 could further limit prices if consumption fails to accelerate. Under these conditions, arabica may receive some relative support from Colombian supply constraints, while robusta could remain more exposed to Vietnam’s expanding availability. Coffee Price Forecast: What to Watch Next Coffee prices are likely to remain sensitive to the balance between immediate supply tightness and expectations for a larger global harvest. Arabica has a degree of support from Colombia’s lower production and historically low ICE stocks, while robusta faces pressure from Vietnam’s strong exports and improving crop prospects. The following developments will be particularly important: Brazilian flowering and rainfall: Evidence of crop damage or favourable development will influence confidence in the next harvest. El Niño progression: Actual weather impacts will matter more than forecasts alone. Colombian production and exports: Continued weakness could keep arabica supply relatively tight. Vietnamese export momentum: Sustained shipment growth could weigh on robusta prices. ICE inventories: A renewed decline in arabica stocks could reinforce tight-supply concerns, while rising robusta stocks could add to selling pressure. Global production revisions: Changes to ICO, USDA or Brazilian crop estimates may alter expectations for the global surplus. Consumption trends: Stronger demand could absorb part of the anticipated production increase, while weaker consumption would reinforce bearish supply expectations. The near-term outlook is mixed, with weather-related upside risks offset by the prospect of abundant global supplies. The direction of the next sustained move will depend on whether actual crop conditions validate the optimistic production forecasts or introduce fresh supply concerns. Currency Hedger View Coffee demonstrates how weather, export flows and global production estimates can create different price dynamics across related commodity markets. Arabica remains sensitive to Colombian availability and Brazilian crop risks, while robusta is more exposed to Vietnam’s export performance and the outlook for Asian production. For coffee importers, roasters and international traders, price volatility can interact with foreign exchange movements to affect landed costs, supplier payments and operating margins. A decline in coffee prices may not fully offset an adverse currency movement, while a stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated purchases for some businesses. Monitoring commodity prices alongside exchange rates can help businesses evaluate their overall exposure and plan for changing supplier costs. The current coffee outlook favours a selective approach, with close attention to crop development, export data and the difference between arabica and robusta supply conditions. Manage Your International Currency Exposure Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about managing international currency exposure with Currency Hedger, or visit the Currency Hedger website. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Market outlooks and forecasts are conditional and may change as new information becomes available. Coffee futures, foreign exchange and other financial instruments involve risk, and prices can move sharply in either direction. Businesses and market participants should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Commentary

October 14, 2026

China Exports Outlook: Record Trade Surplus and AI Demand Strengthen Economic Momentum

China’s export performance is accelerating, with September 2026 shipments reaching a record $447.18 billion as global demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, advanced manufacturing components and high-tech products continues to support the country’s external trade. Export growth reaches a seven-month high, while imports also climb to a record level, highlighting strong demand for industrial inputs, technology hardware and commodities. China’s trade surplus widens to $133.53 billion, its largest since January 2025, exceeding market expectations and reinforcing the scale of the country’s export capacity. With the cumulative surplus approaching $1 trillion during the first nine months of the year, attention is turning to whether this momentum can be sustained through the final quarter and how rising trade imbalances could influence the Chinese yuan, international relations and global market sentiment. Market Snapshot September exports: $447.18 billion, up 36.3% year-on-year. Export growth in August: 25%. Market forecast for export growth: 25.5%. September imports: $313.66 billion, up 31% year-on-year. Market forecast for import growth: 24.5%. September trade surplus: $133.53 billion, compared with $88.72 billion a year earlier. Forecast trade surplus: $118.1 billion. January–September trade surplus: $938.11 billion. Key growth drivers: AI infrastructure, high-tech manufacturing, intermediate goods and regional export demand. Export Growth Accelerates as AI Infrastructure Demand Expands China’s export growth is being supported by strong international demand for components used in AI data centres and related technology infrastructure. Investment in computing capacity, semiconductor-related equipment, networking hardware and advanced manufacturing continues to create opportunities for Chinese suppliers across international markets. September’s 36.3% annual increase represents a significant acceleration from August and substantially exceeds expectations. The scale of the advance suggests that China’s export sector is benefiting from more than traditional consumer demand, with investment in technology infrastructure providing an important additional source of growth. Regional demand is also contributing to the expansion. Reported export growth to ASEAN markets reached 28.7%, while shipments to South Korea and Taiwan increased by 39.1% and 37.3%, respectively. Exports to the European Union rose 16.4%. These figures highlight the importance of Asian manufacturing networks and the continued movement of components and intermediate goods through regional supply chains. The outlook remains constructive while global technology investment holds firm. However, a sustained increase in exports will depend on the durability of AI-related spending, broader international demand and China’s ability to navigate growing trade restrictions. Imports Hit a Record High as Industrial Demand Strengthens China’s imports increased 31% year-on-year to $313.66 billion, accelerating from 28.2% in August and exceeding expectations of 24.5%. The rise reflects several overlapping factors, including seasonal restocking, demand for AI-related hardware, advanced manufacturing activity and elevated international oil and commodity prices. Stronger imports can indicate healthy industrial demand, particularly when businesses are sourcing equipment, raw materials and intermediate products to support manufacturing and infrastructure investment. However, the increase also partly reflects higher international commodity prices, meaning the value of imports does not necessarily translate into an equivalent increase in physical volumes. For commodity markets, China’s import trajectory remains an important variable. Sustained purchasing could support demand expectations for energy, industrial metals and other manufacturing inputs. Conversely, any slowdown in Chinese production or technology investment could weaken demand for selected commodities and increase volatility across related markets. The relationship between imports and exports will therefore be important in assessing the next stage of China’s economic momentum. Trade Surplus Approaches $1 Trillion China’s September trade surplus of $133.53 billion exceeds the forecast of $118.1 billion and rises substantially from the $88.72 billion recorded a year earlier. The cumulative surplus reaches $938.11 billion during the first nine months of 2026, placing the annual figure on course to exceed $1 trillion if the current momentum continues. China recorded a trade surplus of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2025, establishing a high comparison point for the current year. The widening surplus reflects the fact that export values are expanding rapidly, even as imports record strong growth of their own. This imbalance may continue to attract scrutiny from major trading partners concerned about industrial overcapacity, pricing competition and the effect of Chinese manufacturing exports on domestic industries. For financial markets, the surplus has two important implications. First, sustained export receipts can provide structural support for China’s external balance. Second, increasing trade friction could introduce new uncertainty around tariffs, market access and the long-term competitiveness of Chinese exporters. The trade surplus is therefore both a sign of export strength and a potential source of geopolitical and financial risk. US–China Trade Relations Remain a Key Variable Trade relations between Washington and Beijing remain important to the outlook. Plans to roll back tariffs on selected goods and extend the broader trade truce could provide some relief for businesses exposed to bilateral trade restrictions. However, the durability of any improvement will depend on implementation, the scope of tariff adjustments and the willingness of both sides to maintain a more stable commercial relationship. The European Union presents a separate source of uncertainty. A deal announced on October 9 to curb Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the EU illustrates the growing tension between market access and efforts to protect domestic manufacturing. If trade negotiations remain constructive, Chinese exporters could benefit from greater predictability and fewer barriers in key markets. If restrictions expand, companies may need to redirect shipments, adjust production strategies or absorb additional costs. The next phase of trade policy could consequently become as important as the underlying export data in determining the sustainability of China’s external trade performance. Bullish Scenario: Export Momentum Remains Strong A bullish outlook would develop if global AI infrastructure spending continues to expand, regional manufacturing demand remains resilient and trade negotiations prevent a substantial increase in new restrictions. Under this scenario, exports could remain elevated through the final quarter, while strong industrial activity supports imports of equipment, intermediate goods and selected commodities. A persistent trade surplus could strengthen confidence in China’s external position and provide underlying support for the renminbi. Nevertheless, currency performance would also depend on domestic monetary policy, capital flows, investor confidence and the relative strength of the US dollar. For commodities, sustained Chinese industrial demand could offer support to markets linked to manufacturing, infrastructure and energy consumption. Bearish Scenario: Trade Barriers and Demand Risks Increase A bearish scenario would emerge if major trading partners introduce additional tariffs or restrictions, global AI investment slows, or international demand weakens. In that environment, Chinese manufacturers could face pressure on export volumes and profit margins. Businesses might also postpone investment or adjust their supply chains in response to uncertainty over market access. Imports could subsequently lose momentum if industrial production and domestic demand weaken. A narrower trade surplus would reduce one source of external support, although the currency impact would depend on broader financial conditions and policy responses. Escalating tensions with the United States or European Union could also increase volatility in Asian currencies, global equities and commodity markets, particularly where investor positioning is sensitive to changes in trade policy. China Trade Forecast: What Happens Next? China’s near-term trade outlook remains positive, supported by record export and import values, strong technology-related demand and a substantial external surplus. The key question is whether September’s exceptional export growth represents a sustainable expansion or a period of unusually strong demand that becomes harder to maintain. The next stage of the outlook will depend on several factors: AI infrastructure spending: Continued investment in data centres and related hardware could sustain demand for Chinese technology components. Global manufacturing activity: Stronger industrial production and resilient regional supply chains would support trade volumes. Import composition: Whether import growth reflects higher physical volumes or elevated prices will help determine the strength of underlying domestic and industrial demand. US–China trade policy: Implementation of tariff adjustments and the durability of the trade truce will influence exporter confidence. EU trade restrictions: Further measures affecting Chinese vehicles or other manufactured goods could alter export flows. Renminbi performance: Domestic policy, capital flows and US dollar movements will help determine whether trade strength translates into sustained currency support. The cumulative trade surplus approaching $1 trillion provides a substantial foundation, but the next few months will reveal whether China can maintain this pace without triggering a more forceful international trade response. Currency Hedger View China’s September trade figures highlight the strength of its export engine and the growing importance of AI-related manufacturing in global trade. Record exports, rising imports and a substantial surplus point to continued activity across technology supply chains and industrial markets. For the renminbi, the trade surplus provides a potentially supportive external backdrop. However, strong exports do not guarantee currency appreciation. Monetary policy, capital movements, investor sentiment and the relative direction of the US dollar remain important influences. For businesses with exposure to China, the key consideration is the interaction between currency movements, supplier costs, commodity prices and changing trade restrictions. Companies paying Chinese suppliers or receiving revenue in renminbi may benefit from monitoring exchange-rate exposure alongside developments in global manufacturing and trade policy. The outlook remains constructive while export demand and technology investment hold firm, but growing trade tensions could create volatility even if headline trade figures remain strong. Manage Your International Currency Exposure Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger to learn more about managing international currency exposure, or visit the Currency Hedger website. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Economic forecasts and market scenarios are conditional and may change as new information becomes available. Foreign exchange, commodities and other financial instruments involve risk, and market movements can result in losses. Businesses should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 14, 2026

Sugar Prices Outlook: Brazil Weather Disruptions and El Niño Risks Support the Market

Sugar prices are gaining support from weather-related supply disruptions in Brazil and growing concerns about global production in the 2026/27 season. Persistent rainfall across Brazil's Center-South sugar-growing region is slowing harvesting and disrupting cane crushing at mills, restricting the flow of sugar supplies just as the market assesses the impact of potentially adverse weather across major producing countries. March 2027 New York sugar and December 2026 London white sugar have both advanced, with prices remaining close to recent multi-month highs. Fund buying and forecasts for a shift from a global sugar surplus to a deficit are adding support. However, the prospect of record production in the 2025/26 season and expectations for higher global ending stocks continue to present downside risks. Sugar Market Snapshot March 2027 New York sugar: Up 1.25% at the latest reported close. December 2026 London white sugar: Up 0.21% at the latest reported close. 2026/27 ISO global balance: Forecast deficit of 200,000 MT. 2025/26 ISO global balance: Forecast surplus of 1.1 million MT. Thailand 2026/27 production: Estimated at 10 MMT by the Thai Sugar Millers Corp, down 17% year-on-year. Brazil Center-South June production: 3.903 MMT, down 26.3% year-on-year. India monsoon rainfall: 12.6% below normal for June–September. USDA 2026/27 global consumption: Forecast at a record 179.991 MMT. Note: The supplied futures data report percentage changes but do not include outright settlement prices. Brazil Rainfall Disruptions Tighten Near-Term Supply Brazil remains the central short-term driver for the sugar market. Persistent rainfall across the Center-South region is disrupting harvesting operations and slowing cane crushing at sugar mills, limiting the volume of sugar moving through the production chain. As the world's largest sugar producer, Brazil has a substantial influence on global export availability. Any prolonged disruption to harvesting or processing can reduce near-term output and encourage buyers to compete for supplies from alternative origins. The market will be watching whether rainfall begins to ease and allows mills to recover their operating pace. If wet conditions persist, the resulting production delays could support prices further. A return to more favourable harvesting conditions, however, could release delayed supplies and limit the upside. Brazilian mills also face an important production decision: whether to allocate more sugarcane to sugar or ethanol. Higher crude oil prices can improve ethanol's relative attractiveness, potentially reducing the proportion of cane directed towards sugar production. Fund Buying Adds Momentum to Sugar Prices Speculative positioning is providing additional support. The latest weekly Commitment of Traders figures cited in the supplied data show that funds increased their net-long New York sugar position by 60,442 contracts in the week ended October 6, bringing the total to 212,559 contracts. This represents the largest net-long position in more than three years, highlighting the strength of bullish positioning in the market. Fund buying can reinforce upward price momentum when weather concerns and tightening supply expectations attract additional investment. However, a heavily net-long market can also become vulnerable to profit-taking if production improves, weather risks ease or global demand disappoints. The sustainability of the current rally will therefore depend on whether fresh fundamental buying continues to justify the existing speculative exposure. Global Sugar Deficit Forecast Supports the Medium-Term Outlook The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects the global sugar balance to shift from a surplus in 2025/26 to a deficit in 2026/27. The ISO's September outlook projects a deficit of 200,000 MT for 2026/27, compared with a surplus of 1.1 MMT in 2025/26. Other forecasts point to potentially tighter conditions, although estimates vary considerably. StoneX has projected a 2026/27 deficit of 1.7 MMT, while Covrig Analytics has also revised its outlook towards a tighter balance. These differences illustrate the uncertainty surrounding production, consumption and the eventual effect of weather on the next crop. The broader implication is that the market may become more sensitive to production shortfalls if supplies decline while consumption continues to increase. Nevertheless, the anticipated deficit remains relatively small in the ISO forecast, meaning that changes in production estimates or inventories could materially alter the balance. El Niño Raises Risks for Brazil, India and Thailand Weather concerns extend beyond Brazil. Forecasts cited in the supplied market information indicate that the developing El Niño pattern could persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter and into the first quarter of next year. A strong El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across major agricultural regions. The effects vary by location and season, but adverse conditions in Brazil, India and Thailand could affect sugarcane growth, crop yields and harvesting schedules. India's June–September monsoon rainfall was reported at 12.6% below normal, the weakest in 11 years according to the figures supplied. Because India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country, prolonged moisture stress could affect crop development and domestic availability. The market will also monitor the risk of excessive rainfall and flooding in some regions. Both drought and flooding can damage crops or disrupt harvesting, although the timing and severity of the impact will determine whether global sugar output is materially reduced. Weather forecasts remain uncertain, and the ultimate effect on production will depend on regional conditions rather than the El Niño classification alone. Thailand Production Outlook Signals Lower Export Availability Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, is another source of potential supply tightness. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected that 2026/27 production could fall by 17% year-on-year to 10 MMT. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service has issued a lower estimate of 9.5 MMT, representing a 15.6% decline. Although the estimates differ, both point towards reduced output compared with the preceding season. If confirmed, lower Thai production could reduce export availability and increase the importance of Brazilian and Indian supplies in meeting global demand. However, the extent of the decline will depend on weather conditions, cane yields and the progression of the harvest. Any recovery in production expectations could temper the market's bullish response. India Import Policy Highlights Domestic Supply Concerns India has traditionally been an important sugar exporter, but weaker domestic production and concerns about local availability have increased attention on its import policy. The supplied figures indicate that India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade has allowed up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without import taxes until October 31. This measure signals concern about the domestic supply balance and provides a potential route for additional imports. India's sugar industry has also revised its 2025/26 production estimate to 32 MMT, down from an earlier forecast of 32.4 MMT, while projecting exports of 800,000 MT. If India needs to retain more domestically produced sugar or import additional supplies, less sugar may be available to the international market. That could support global prices, particularly if production also weakens in Brazil and Thailand. The impact will depend on the amount of sugar actually imported, domestic consumption, stock levels and any subsequent changes to trade policy. Global Production and Ending Stocks Limit the Upside Despite tightening expectations for 2026/27, the preceding season's production outlook remains a significant counterweight. The ISO forecasts record global sugar production of 182 MMT for 2025/26, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, alongside a 1.1 MMT surplus. This follows a substantial deficit in 2024/25 and suggests that the global market has recently rebuilt supply. The USDA's forecasts also point to substantial production and inventory availability. Its 2026/27 outlook projects global production of 184.854 MMT, down 6.5% year-on-year from its stated 2025/26 estimate of 186.056 MMT. Human consumption is expected to increase by 0.4% to a record 179.991 MMT, while ending stocks are projected to rise by 2% to 44.410 MMT. These figures present a mixed picture: lower production and higher consumption may tighten the balance, but rising ending stocks could provide a buffer against short-term disruptions. The USDA and ISO production estimates differ, reflecting differences in methodology and forecast assumptions. Traders should therefore focus on changes within each organisation's projections rather than treating the estimates as directly interchangeable. Bullish Scenario: Production Disruptions Deepen Sugar prices could extend their advance if Brazil's rainfall continues to slow harvesting and crushing, while adverse weather reduces production prospects in India and Thailand. A shift towards a global deficit would become more significant if output falls short of current forecasts and consumption remains firm. India's import requirements could further tighten export availability, while fund buying may amplify price movements if the fundamental outlook continues to improve. The bullish case would strengthen if new production estimates are revised lower, Brazilian mill output remains constrained and the global stock outlook deteriorates. Bearish Scenario: Supply Recovers and Funds Take Profits The bearish case centres on the possibility that the current weather disruptions prove temporary and production recovers as harvesting conditions improve. The large surplus projected for 2025/26 and the USDA's forecast of higher 2026/27 ending stocks could limit the impact of a relatively modest ISO deficit. If Brazil's mills process more cane than anticipated, or India and Thailand produce closer to earlier expectations, global availability may remain sufficient to meet demand. The sizeable speculative net-long position also creates a risk of profit-taking. If weather conditions improve or deficit forecasts are reduced, funds could unwind positions and put renewed pressure on futures. Sugar Price Forecast The near-term outlook is cautiously bullish, supported by Brazilian weather disruptions, strong fund positioning and the possibility of a tighter global sugar balance in 2026/27. However, the market is approaching this outlook with competing signals. Recent production has been strong, global inventories remain substantial and forecast deficits vary widely between industry analysts. In the bullish scenario, continued harvesting delays and weaker output in major producing countries could keep prices near recent highs and encourage further buying. In the bearish scenario, improving weather, recovering production and speculative profit-taking could trigger a correction. The next directional move is likely to depend on whether weather-related supply losses become visible in actual production, export availability and inventory data. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Brazilian rainfall: Whether conditions allow Center-South mills to resume harvesting and crushing at a faster pace. Fund positioning: Whether funds continue adding to their net-long exposure or begin taking profits. El Niño forecasts: Updated assessments of the likely duration and regional effects of the weather pattern. India's sugar balance: Changes to domestic production, import requirements and export availability. Thailand's crop estimates: Whether production projections move towards the 9.5–10 MMT range or deteriorate further. Global deficit estimates: Revisions from the ISO, StoneX and other industry analysts. Ending stocks: Whether global inventory projections provide a buffer against lower production. Crude oil and ethanol: Whether energy prices encourage Brazilian mills to allocate more cane to ethanol rather than sugar. Currency Hedger View Sugar's outlook is increasingly sensitive to weather, energy markets and the balance between global production and consumption. Brazil's harvesting disruptions and the potential for lower output in India and Thailand support prices, while strong recent production and substantial ending stocks remain important downside risks. For sugar importers, food manufacturers and international commodity traders, exchange rates can compound changes in the underlying commodity price. A weaker purchasing currency can raise import costs, while exchange-rate volatility can affect supplier payments, contract margins and export revenues. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Explore Currency Hedger for international currency solutions, or visit currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Sugar futures and other commodities involve significant risk and may experience substantial price volatility. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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October 14, 2026

Cocoa Prices Outlook: Ivory Coast Weather Risks and Weak Crop Prospects Support a Rally

Cocoa prices are finding support from adverse weather conditions in West Africa and growing concerns about the size and quality of the 2026/27 harvest. Heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast is disrupting access to cocoa farms and slowing deliveries to ports just as harvesting begins, while early crop assessments point to weaker pod development across major producing regions. December 2026 New York cocoa has reached a one-month high, while London cocoa has climbed to a six-week high. However, rising ICE inventories, evidence of strong recent production and mixed global processing demand continue to create downside risks. The market is increasingly caught between the prospect of tighter future supplies and signs that existing inventories remain abundant. Cocoa Market Snapshot December 2026 New York cocoa: Up 1.00% to the latest reported close. December 2026 London cocoa: Up 0.30% to the latest reported close. Ivory Coast 2026/27 crop estimate: Approximately 1.8 million metric tonnes (MMT), down around 18% from 2.2 MMT. Ghana 2026/27 crop estimate: 650,000 MT, down around 13% from 750,000 MT. ICE cocoa inventories: 3,578,471 bags, a 2.25-year high. Q2 European cocoa grindings: Down 4.6% year-on-year. Q2 North American cocoa grindings: Up 7.7% year-on-year. Q2 Asian cocoa grindings: Up 25% year-on-year. Note: The supplied futures figures report percentage changes but do not provide the outright settlement prices. West African Weather Disruptions Support Cocoa Prices Heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast is becoming an important short-term price driver. Flooded or damaged roads and bridges are restricting farmers' access to cocoa farms and slowing the movement of harvested beans towards export ports. These logistical difficulties can temporarily reduce the volume of cocoa reaching the export market, even when the underlying crop remains available. If disruption persists as the harvest gathers pace, traders may begin pricing in tighter near-term availability and increased uncertainty over deliveries. However, the impact will depend on how long the adverse conditions last. If roads become accessible and port deliveries recover, the temporary supply constraint could ease, leaving the market to focus more closely on inventories, crop estimates and demand. El Niño Raises Medium-Term Production Risks The developing El Niño weather pattern presents a further concern for cocoa production. Forecasts cited in the supplied market information indicate the possibility of an exceptionally strong event. El Niño can bring warmer and drier conditions to parts of West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture and placing additional stress on cocoa trees. The effects are not uniform in every growing region, but prolonged heat or insufficient rainfall during critical stages of pod development could reduce yields. The market will therefore be watching rainfall distribution, temperatures and crop development throughout the main growing areas. The risk is particularly significant when combined with existing disease pressures and reports of below-average cherelle formation, an early stage of pod development. Ivory Coast Crop Outlook Signals Potential Supply Tightness Early assessments of the Ivory Coast's 2026/27 crop suggest production could average around 1.8 MMT, approximately 18% below the estimated 2.2 MMT for the previous season. Poor pod development and limited sunshine have raised concerns about the upcoming harvest. Cloudy and wet conditions can also encourage black pod disease, which damages cocoa pods and may reduce both the quantity and quality of beans reaching the market. A lower crop estimate would provide medium-term support to cocoa prices if subsequent field assessments confirm the deterioration and export availability begins to tighten. Nevertheless, the forecast remains subject to change as the season progresses. Harvest results, disease incidence, weather conditions and the rate of deliveries to ports will determine whether the anticipated production decline becomes a sustained market constraint. Ghana Production Risks Add to the Bullish Outlook Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, faces similar concerns over future production. Its cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, has projected that output in the 2026/27 season could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 MT, compared with 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26. Swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and potential adverse El Niño conditions are among the factors threatening production. A separate field survey cited in the supplied figures estimated Ghana's 2026/27 crop at 650,000 MT, a 13% decline from the previous season's 750,000 MT. These estimates differ, reflecting uncertainty around the outlook; the lower official projection highlights the extent of the potential downside to production. At the same time, Ghana's 2025/26 season has demonstrated strong output. Reported harvested production reached 750,000 MT, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. This stronger current-season supply could limit immediate price gains even as the outlook for the next crop deteriorates. Rising ICE Inventories Create a Bearish Counterweight Despite the weather-related support, cocoa prices face a significant inventory headwind. ICE cocoa stocks have increased steadily since the beginning of the year, reaching 3,578,471 bags, the highest level in approximately 2.25 years. Rising exchange inventories can indicate that more cocoa is available within the deliverable supply pool, reducing the urgency for buyers to compete for nearby contracts. This creates an important distinction for the market: concerns about the next West African crop can support deferred supply expectations, while abundant inventories can weigh on prices in the near term. For a sustained rally to develop, traders will likely need evidence that deteriorating crop prospects are translating into tighter physical availability, rather than being offset by existing stocks and strong deliveries from the previous harvest. Ivory Coast Shipments and Recent Production Remain Price Risks Recent supply data provide another reason for caution. Cumulative Ivory Coast shipments to ports were reported at 2.18 MMT for the period from October 1, 2025, through September 27, 2026, an increase of 19.8% from the comparable year-earlier period. Separately, the country's cocoa regulator reported production of 2.06 MMT for the June 2025 to June 2026 period, up 30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier. These figures indicate that recent supply has been substantial, helping explain why cocoa inventories can remain elevated even as concerns develop about the next crop. The different reporting periods are important. Ivory Coast's 2026/27 marketing year has shifted to a September 1 start, while the shipment comparison cited above uses the international marketing year beginning October 1. These figures should therefore be interpreted according to their respective reporting periods rather than treated as directly interchangeable measures. Cocoa Demand Remains Mixed Across Major Regions Demand signals are uneven, making consumption an important factor in the next price move. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter to 316,366 MT, below expectations for a 1.5% decline and the weakest second-quarter result in six years. The decline suggests that high cocoa costs may be weighing on processors or final demand. North America provided a more positive signal, with grindings rising 7.7% year-on-year to 109,659 MT, compared with expectations for a 1% decline. Asian demand was stronger still. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported a 25% annual increase in second-quarter grindings to 224,646 MT, significantly above expectations for a 9% rise. The regional divergence means that a broad-based demand recovery cannot yet be assumed. Stronger Asian and North American processing activity may help absorb supplies, but continued weakness in Europe could limit the extent of a global recovery. Cargill's reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa for the quarter ended August 31 also point to the commercial challenges associated with elevated cocoa costs. Processors may struggle to pass higher input prices on to customers, potentially encouraging reduced purchasing or tighter inventory management. Bullish Scenario: Crop Deterioration Tightens Future Supplies Cocoa could extend its advance if heavy rainfall continues to disrupt harvesting and deliveries in the Ivory Coast, while subsequent crop assessments confirm weaker pod development and lower production prospects. A strong El Niño event could add to concerns about soil moisture, tree stress and future yields. If Ghana's production outlook also deteriorates, the combined effect could strengthen expectations of tighter West African supplies. The bullish case would become more convincing if ICE inventories begin to decline, physical deliveries tighten and demand data remain firm across North America and Asia. Under these conditions, the recent highs in New York and London cocoa could become a foundation for further gains, although confirmation from physical-market indicators would remain important. Bearish Scenario: Abundant Inventories and Weak Demand Limit Gains The bearish case rests on the substantial inventory overhang, strong recent production and uncertainty about whether consumers can absorb elevated chocolate and cocoa costs. If weather disruptions prove temporary, the Ivory Coast could resume deliveries at a stronger pace. Higher-than-expected crop output or further inventory accumulation would reduce the urgency for buyers to secure supplies. Weak European grindings and continued margin pressure on processors could also weigh on demand. If these factors dominate before evidence of a genuine production shortfall emerges, cocoa futures could retreat from their recent highs. The market may therefore remain volatile, with weather-driven rallies vulnerable to selling when inventory and demand data point to comfortable near-term availability. Cocoa Price Forecast The near-term outlook is cautiously bullish but highly conditional. Weather disruption in the Ivory Coast and concerns about the 2026/27 crops in both the Ivory Coast and Ghana are supporting prices. The latest advances to a one-month high in New York and a six-week high in London reflect the market's growing sensitivity to future supply risks. However, rising ICE inventories and substantial recent West African production limit confidence in a sustained rally. Demand is also uneven, with stronger processing activity in North America and Asia offset by a significant decline in Europe. The next major directional signal is likely to come from the relationship between actual port deliveries, updated crop assessments and exchange inventories. Continued supply disruption and declining stocks would strengthen the bullish case. A recovery in deliveries alongside persistently high inventories would increase the risk of a correction. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Ivory Coast rainfall: Whether heavy rain continues to disrupt harvesting, transport and port deliveries. El Niño developments: Forecast revisions and their implications for rainfall, soil moisture and cocoa tree health in West Africa. Crop assessments: New evidence on cherelle formation, pod development, black pod disease and expected yields. Ghana production: Whether official forecasts move towards the lower 450,000–550,000 MT range or improve as the season develops. ICE inventories: Whether stocks retreat from the 3,578,471-bag high or continue accumulating. Ivory Coast shipments: Whether deliveries maintain their strong historical pace or weaken as the new crop season progresses. Global grindings: Whether North American and Asian strength continues and whether European processing demand stabilises. Processor margins: Whether chocolate manufacturers can absorb elevated cocoa costs or reduce purchases in response to margin pressure. Currency Hedger View Cocoa prices are being driven by a growing divide between immediate supply risks and the possibility of more abundant stocks. Weather disruption and weaker production prospects in West Africa support the medium-term outlook, while rising inventories and mixed processing demand could constrain near-term gains. For chocolate manufacturers, food producers and international cocoa traders, currency movements can amplify changes in commodity costs. A weaker purchasing currency can increase the local cost of cocoa imports, while exchange-rate volatility can affect supplier payments, margins and export receipts. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Explore Currency Hedger for international currency solutions, or visit currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Cocoa futures and other commodities involve significant risk and may experience substantial price volatility. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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October 14, 2026

Cotton Prices Outlook: US Harvest Progress and Global Benchmarks Shape the Market

Cotton futures remain mixed as the market weighs advancing US harvest progress against crop conditions, global price benchmarks and broader macroeconomic influences. With the US harvest moving ahead of its normal pace and the Cotlook A Index strengthening, traders are assessing whether improving harvest availability will limit further gains or whether international demand and currency movements can provide additional support. Crude oil prices are firmer, while a weaker US dollar offers a potentially supportive backdrop for dollar-denominated cotton. The next direction will depend on the balance between available supplies, export demand and price competitiveness in global markets. Cotton Market Snapshot December 2026 cotton: 80.51 cents/lb, down 9 points. March 2027 cotton: 83.83 cents/lb, up 2 points. May 2027 cotton: 85.48 cents/lb, unchanged. US cotton bolls open: 82%. US cotton harvest progress: 31%, two percentage points ahead of normal. Good/excellent crop conditions: 34%, up two percentage points on the week. Cotlook A Index: 91.15 cents/lb, up 50 points. Adjusted World Price (AWP): 63.81 cents/lb, down 135 points. US Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions The latest crop progress figures indicate that 82% of the US cotton crop has open bolls, while harvesting has reached 31%. Progress is two percentage points ahead of the seasonal average, suggesting that cotton supplies will continue moving from fields into the market as harvesting advances. Crop conditions are improving modestly. The proportion of the crop rated good to excellent has increased by two percentage points to 34%, while the Brugler500 index has risen two points to 292. These improvements may help ease concerns about crop quality and production risks. However, the majority of the crop is not currently rated good to excellent, leaving weather conditions and the pace of harvesting important factors for the market to monitor. Faster harvesting can increase the availability of physical cotton and create pressure on nearby futures if demand does not keep pace. Conversely, any weather-related disruption or deterioration in crop conditions could slow fieldwork and provide support to prices. Global Cotton Prices and Physical Market Signals The Cotlook A Index has strengthened by 50 points to 91.15 cents per pound, indicating firmer pricing in the international physical cotton market. A sustained increase in this benchmark could help support sentiment across futures, particularly if it reflects improving demand or tighter availability in key exporting regions. The Seam reported 836 bales sold at an average price of 77.22 cents per pound. This provides a snapshot of reported spot-market activity, although the relatively limited volume means it should be interpreted alongside broader trading and export indicators. ICE certified cotton stocks remained unchanged at 17,756 bales. Stable certified inventories offer no immediate evidence of a change in exchange-certified availability, but the stock level alone does not represent total cotton supplies or global inventories. The Adjusted World Price fell by 135 points to 63.81 cents per pound. This decline contrasts with the stronger Cotlook A Index and highlights the different roles these benchmarks play in the US and international cotton markets. Crude Oil and US Dollar Influence Crude oil rose by $1.05 per barrel, while the US Dollar Index declined by 0.375 points. These movements provide a potentially supportive macroeconomic backdrop for cotton, although neither guarantees higher prices. Higher crude oil prices can influence cotton through competition with synthetic fibres, including polyester, which is derived from petrochemical feedstocks. The relationship is indirect and depends on manufacturing costs, textile demand and the relative prices of competing fibres. A weaker US dollar can improve the price competitiveness of US cotton for overseas buyers whose currencies appreciate against the dollar. If this translates into stronger export sales, it could help offset the additional availability associated with the advancing harvest. However, currency movements must be assessed alongside demand from major textile-producing economies, export commitments and competing global supplies. Bullish Scenario: International Demand Strengthens Cotton could gain further support if the firmer Cotlook A Index is accompanied by stronger physical demand and export activity. A sustained decline in the US dollar may improve US cotton's competitiveness in international markets, while higher crude oil prices could improve cotton's relative appeal against synthetic fibres. The improvement in crop-condition ratings also provides some reassurance about the developing crop, but the market may remain sensitive to weather and any disruption to harvest progress. A move above the recent December 2026 futures level of 80.51 cents per pound would need to be supported by stronger buying and follow-through momentum to establish a more convincing bullish outlook. Bearish Scenario: Harvest Availability Weighs on Futures The principal downside risk is that the US harvest continues to progress ahead of normal, increasing the flow of physical cotton into the market while demand remains insufficient to absorb the additional supply. The improvement in crop conditions could also reduce concerns about production quality. If export demand fails to strengthen, futures may struggle to sustain rallies despite the weaker dollar and higher crude oil prices. The decline in the Adjusted World Price is another factor to monitor, although it should not be treated as a direct forecast for futures. Renewed selling pressure could leave December cotton vulnerable to a further test of lower price levels. Cotton Price Forecast The near-term outlook remains mixed, with December 2026 cotton at 80.51 cents per pound and deferred contracts showing modestly firmer or unchanged pricing. This spread suggests that the market is not moving uniformly across delivery periods. In the bullish case, stronger international benchmarks, improved export competitiveness and resilient textile demand could help futures consolidate and attempt to extend gains. In the bearish case, accelerating harvest supplies and insufficient demand could keep prices under pressure, particularly in the nearby contract. The key signal will be whether strengthening international prices translate into sustained buying in US futures. Without confirmation from export demand and physical-market activity, any recovery may prove vulnerable to renewed selling. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Traders should monitor the following developments: US harvest progress: Whether harvesting continues to exceed the seasonal average and increases near-term supply availability. Crop conditions: Any further changes in the good/excellent rating and the Brugler500 index. Cotlook A Index: Whether international benchmark prices extend their gains or begin to weaken. Export demand: Evidence of stronger US cotton sales and shipments to major textile-producing markets. ICE certified stocks: Whether exchange-certified inventories begin to rise or fall. Crude oil: Whether higher energy prices improve cotton's relative competitiveness against synthetic fibres. US dollar: Whether further weakness supports overseas purchasing power for US cotton. Futures structure: Whether December 2026 cotton can establish support around current levels relative to the March and May 2027 contracts. Currency Hedger View Cotton's direction will depend on the interaction between harvest availability, international demand and macroeconomic conditions. The weaker US dollar may improve the competitiveness of US cotton, while firmer crude oil prices could influence the relative economics of natural and synthetic fibres. Nevertheless, advancing harvest progress and the potential for increased physical supply remain important downside risks. Businesses involved in cotton trading, textile manufacturing and international procurement should monitor exchange-rate movements alongside commodity prices. Currency changes can materially affect the cost of imported raw materials, export receipts and operating margins, even when the underlying cotton price remains relatively stable. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger to explore international currency solutions, or learn more at currencyhedger.com. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. Commodity futures involve significant risk, and prices can move sharply in response to weather, supply and demand, currency movements and wider economic developments. Forecasts are conditional scenarios, not guarantees of future performance.

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October 14, 2026

Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Outlook: Tight Pasture Conditions Support Prices as Beef Demand Softens

US cattle markets remain supported by elevated feeder cattle values and constrained supply, but weaker wholesale beef prices and mixed futures performance are creating uncertainty over the near-term outlook. Live cattle futures have edged lower, while feeder cattle contracts have also shown weakness despite further gains in the CME Feeder Cattle Index. Looking ahead, the balance between cattle availability, feed costs, pasture conditions and consumer demand for beef will remain central to price direction. With US pasture ratings still low and slaughter numbers below the same period last year, supply-side support could persist, although weaker boxed beef prices may limit further gains. Market Snapshot October 2026 live cattle: $224.625 per hundredweight. December 2026 live cattle: $226.375 per hundredweight. February 2027 live cattle: $228.575 per hundredweight. October 2026 feeder cattle: $343.075 per hundredweight. November 2026 feeder cattle: $341.025 per hundredweight. January 2027 feeder cattle: $335.850 per hundredweight. CME Feeder Cattle Index: $341.47, following a further $2.85 increase. US pasture conditions: 22% rated good to excellent. Choice boxed beef: $375.15, down $0.41. Select boxed beef: $353.67, down $0.46. Live Cattle Price Action: Supply Support Meets Beef Market Pressure Live cattle futures have recently traded lower, reflecting a market balancing tight cattle supplies against signs of pressure in the wholesale beef market. Cash trade has been relatively quiet, with recent reported transactions indicating live cattle prices around $222–$223 per hundredweight in northern markets and some southern trade near $226. Dressed cattle prices have been reported around $345 per hundredweight in the North. These cash-market levels remain important reference points for futures traders. If packers need to compete for limited supplies, cash cattle prices could remain firm and provide support to futures. However, weaker wholesale beef values may reduce packer margins and influence their willingness to bid aggressively for cattle. The February 2027 live cattle contract remains above the October and December contracts, reflecting a higher deferred price level. Whether this structure holds will depend on expectations for cattle availability, beef demand and feedlot marketing conditions over the coming months. Feeder Cattle: Elevated Index Highlights Tight Availability Feeder cattle futures have shown a mixed but generally softer performance, while the CME Feeder Cattle Index has continued to rise, reaching $341.47 after a further $2.85 increase. The strength of the index suggests that demand for replacement cattle remains firm relative to available supplies. Feeder cattle prices are influenced by expectations for future fed cattle values, feed costs, pasture availability and the profitability of placing animals into feedlots. However, elevated feeder prices can also increase the cost of bringing cattle to market weight. If finished cattle prices weaken or feed costs rise, feedlot operators may become more cautious about paying high prices for replacement animals. The market will therefore be watching whether feeder cattle values continue to outperform live cattle futures or begin to adjust to changes in expected finishing margins. Pasture Conditions: Limited Grazing Capacity Remains a Concern The latest USDA Crop Progress report places US pasture conditions at just 22% good to excellent, down one percentage point from the previous week. The Brugler500 index remains steady at 257. Poor pasture conditions can increase reliance on supplemental feed and raise the cost of maintaining cattle outside feedlots. They can also influence herd management decisions, including the timing of placements, sales and potential herd rebuilding. If pasture conditions remain weak, producers may face greater pressure to manage costs and available forage. This could affect the flow of cattle through the supply chain, although the outcome will vary by region and depend on rainfall, forage recovery and feed availability. For prices, the implications are mixed. Restricted grazing capacity can increase production costs and encourage some producers to market cattle earlier, but tight replacement supplies and higher costs can also support feeder cattle values. Wholesale Beef Prices: Demand Remains a Key Risk Wholesale boxed beef prices have moved lower, with Choice boxes at $375.15 per hundredweight and Select boxes at $353.67. Both categories have recorded declines, indicating that the wholesale market is facing some near-term pressure. Beef demand is a critical factor for the cattle complex because packer revenues influence the prices they can afford to pay for live animals. If wholesale prices weaken further while cattle acquisition costs remain high, processing margins could come under pressure. The market will need to assess whether the decline represents a temporary adjustment or the start of a more persistent weakening in beef demand. Seasonal consumption patterns, retail pricing, competing proteins and consumer purchasing power could all influence the next phase of the market. A recovery in boxed beef prices would help reinforce the bullish cattle outlook, particularly if slaughter volumes remain constrained. Continued declines, however, could make it more difficult for live cattle futures to sustain higher levels. Slaughter Numbers: Reduced Supply Provides Underlying Support USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 110,000 head for the latest reported session, bringing the week-to-date total to 216,000 head. This was 4,000 head above the previous week's comparable total but 10,636 head below the same week last year. The year-over-year reduction is consistent with a market where cattle availability remains an important consideration. Lower slaughter numbers can limit the volume of beef reaching the market, potentially supporting prices when demand is stable. However, lower slaughter does not automatically translate into higher cattle prices. The effect depends on carcass weights, processing capacity, beef inventories, imports and exports, and the strength of consumer demand. If slaughter remains below last year's levels while beef demand holds firm, cattle prices may retain fundamental support. If demand weakens faster than supply contracts, the market could still face downward pressure. Bullish Scenario: Tight Supplies Support Cattle Values A bullish scenario could develop if cattle supplies remain limited and wholesale beef demand stabilises or improves. Potential catalysts include: Continued strength in the CME Feeder Cattle Index. Cash cattle prices holding firm despite futures volatility. Slaughter remaining below year-ago levels. Improving boxed beef prices that support packer margins. Persistent pasture challenges that increase production costs and constrain grazing capacity. Under these conditions, live cattle futures could regain momentum, while feeder cattle values may remain supported by the cost and availability of replacement animals. Confirmation would require firmer cash trade, improved beef prices or continued evidence that supplies are insufficient to meet processing demand comfortably. Bearish Scenario: Weak Beef Prices Pressure Futures The bearish outlook would strengthen if wholesale beef prices continue to decline and packer margins deteriorate. Factors that could pressure the cattle complex include: Further declines in Choice and Select boxed beef prices. Reduced consumer demand for beef at elevated retail prices. Increased cattle marketings that temporarily expand available supplies. Higher feed costs that weaken feedlot profitability. A sustained downturn in live cattle futures that begins to weigh on feeder cattle values. If these factors combine, feeder cattle prices could become particularly vulnerable because high replacement costs leave less room for feedlots to absorb weaker finished cattle prices. In this scenario, the market would focus on whether tight supplies can offset weaker demand or whether lower wholesale beef values begin to dominate price discovery. Cattle Price Forecast: Supply Remains Supportive, but Demand Must Hold The cattle market retains a degree of fundamental support from tight availability, low pasture ratings and a year-over-year decline in slaughter. The further rise in the CME Feeder Cattle Index also indicates that replacement cattle remain expensive. Nevertheless, weaker boxed beef prices present a meaningful obstacle to a sustained rally. The key issue is whether consumer demand and packer economics can support finished cattle prices at current levels. Into the final months of 2026 and early 2027, the outlook will depend on cash cattle trade, slaughter volumes, wholesale beef prices and the cost of feeding cattle. A recovery in beef prices alongside continued supply constraints would strengthen the bullish case. Further wholesale weakness could instead trigger additional consolidation or a deeper correction. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Cash cattle trade: Firm cash prices would reinforce the case that limited supplies are supporting the market. Feeder cattle index: Continued gains could indicate sustained competition for replacement animals. Boxed beef prices: A recovery in Choice and Select values would help improve the outlook for packer margins. Slaughter volumes: Persistent year-over-year declines could restrict beef production and provide price support. Pasture and feed conditions: Changes in grazing availability and feed costs will influence herd management and feedlot profitability. Currency Hedger View Live cattle and feeder cattle markets are navigating a tension between constrained supply and softer wholesale beef prices. Low pasture ratings, reduced slaughter relative to last year and elevated feeder cattle values provide underlying support, but the sustainability of higher prices depends on demand remaining strong enough to support packer margins. Businesses exposed to livestock, meat processing and international agricultural trade should monitor feed costs, beef demand and supply-chain developments alongside currency movements, which can affect the cost of imported inputs and the value of export revenues. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a solicitation to trade. Commodity and futures markets involve significant risk, and prices can move against expectations. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and may not materialise. Conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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October 14, 2026

Corn Prices Outlook: Strong Export Demand Offsets Harvest Delays and Supply Pressure

Corn prices remain caught between seasonal harvest pressure and resilient international demand, with US export shipments running ahead of last year's pace. Although futures have edged lower, continued purchases from major importers, including South Korea, and solid shipments to Mexico, Japan and other Asian markets provide underlying support. The outlook for the remainder of 2026 will depend on how quickly the US harvest progresses, whether export demand remains strong and how Chinese import requirements evolve. With most of the US crop approaching maturity, traders will be assessing whether demand can absorb incoming supplies without a sustained deterioration in prices. Market Snapshot December 2026 CBOT corn: $4.82¾ per bushel. March 2027 CBOT corn: $4.96½ per bushel. May 2027 CBOT corn: $5.04 per bushel. US national average cash corn: $4.42½ per bushel. US corn crop maturity: 91% complete. US corn harvest: 33% complete, six percentage points behind the average pace. Cumulative 2026/27 US export shipments: 8.44 million metric tonnes, 5.32% above the same period last year. South Korean purchases: Importers purchased a combined 261,000 tonnes of corn in recent tenders. Corn Price Action: Futures Remain Relatively Stable Corn futures have shown limited movement, with contracts trading fractionally lower as the market balances the pressure of the US harvest against continued export demand. The national average cash price remains around $4.42½ per bushel, while deferred futures are trading above the December contract. This relatively stable price action suggests that neither seasonal supply pressure nor export demand has established decisive control over the market. As harvesting advances, additional supplies could weigh on nearby prices, particularly if yields remain favourable and grain availability increases. However, the export outlook offers a counterweight. If international buyers continue to purchase US corn at a healthy pace, demand could absorb some of the incoming harvest and help limit downside pressure. US Harvest Progress: Seasonal Supply Pressure Builds The latest crop progress data show that 91% of the US corn crop has reached maturity, while harvesting is 33% complete. Harvest progress remains six percentage points behind the average pace. The maturity figure indicates that much of the crop is approaching harvest readiness, but the slower harvesting schedule could delay the movement of corn into commercial channels. Weather conditions and fieldwork efficiency will therefore remain important influences on near-term supply. Crop condition ratings have improved, with 56% of the crop rated good to excellent. The Brugler500 index is reported at 346, although the accompanying source data contain an inconsistency in the stated weekly change. The current index reading is therefore more reliable than the reported direction of that change. If harvest progress accelerates under favourable weather, greater availability could place pressure on nearby futures. Conversely, further delays or weather-related disruption could temporarily tighten supply flows and support prices. Export Demand: Shipments Remain Above Last Year's Pace US corn export inspections totalled 1.302 million metric tonnes in the week ending October 8. Shipments declined 7.2% from the previous week but remained 7.57% above the corresponding week last year. Mexico was the largest destination, receiving 466,356 tonnes. Japan accounted for 277,161 tonnes, while South Korea received 274,744 tonnes. Cumulative export shipments for the 2026/27 marketing year have reached 8.44 million tonnes, approximately 5.32% above the same period last year. This year-over-year improvement provides evidence of continued international demand, even as weekly shipment volumes fluctuate. The critical question is whether this pace can be maintained as the US harvest expands available supplies. Sustained export growth would help absorb production and support the market, while a slowdown could leave prices more exposed to seasonal selling pressure. South Korea: Import Tenders Support Demand Expectations South Korean importers have purchased a combined 261,000 tonnes of corn through recent tenders, reinforcing the importance of Asian demand to the international market. Import tenders can provide useful signals of purchasing requirements, but their longer-term price impact depends on delivery timing, origin selection, global availability and the competitiveness of export offers. If South Korean buyers and other Asian importers continue to secure substantial volumes, exporters may find an outlet for US supplies even as harvest activity increases. Stronger demand would be particularly supportive if it coincides with weather-related supply disruptions or tighter availability in competing origins. However, sustained demand will be needed to offset the pressure that typically accompanies the arrival of a large new crop. China: Corn Imports Expected to Ease COFCO's futures research director estimates Chinese corn imports at 3.5 million tonnes for the 2026/27 marketing year, a reduction of 170,000 tonnes from the previous year. Sorghum imports, by contrast, are expected to rise by 550,000 tonnes to 8 million tonnes. These projections suggest that China may continue to diversify its feed-grain sourcing rather than increase corn imports substantially. Higher sorghum imports could influence demand for corn, depending on relative prices, feed suitability and domestic livestock-sector requirements. For the international corn market, the key consideration is whether Chinese demand for corn strengthens beyond current expectations or remains relatively restrained. A material increase in import requirements could support global prices, while lower corn imports and substitution towards alternative feed grains could limit the upside. Bullish Scenario: Export Strength Limits Harvest Pressure A bullish scenario could emerge if strong export demand continues while harvest delays restrict the flow of newly available supplies. Potential catalysts include: Continued year-over-year growth in US export shipments. Additional purchases from South Korea, Mexico, Japan and other major importers. Harvest delays caused by unfavourable weather. Stronger-than-expected Chinese corn import demand. Improving feed demand or increased competitiveness of US export offers. Under these conditions, corn futures could stabilise and attempt to move higher, with deferred contracts potentially benefiting if demand remains firm into early 2027. The bullish case would be strengthened by sustained export inspections and evidence that international demand is absorbing the new crop at a faster pace than anticipated. Bearish Scenario: Harvest Supplies and Weak Chinese Imports Weigh on Prices The bearish scenario would gain traction if the US harvest accelerates and global demand proves insufficient to absorb the additional supplies. Factors that could pressure prices include: Faster harvest progress and increasing commercial availability. A slowdown in US export shipments. Chinese corn imports remaining below previous-year levels. Greater substitution towards sorghum and other feed grains. Strong production prospects that reinforce expectations of ample supplies. If these factors combine, nearby futures could remain under pressure as the market works through the seasonal harvest increase. Deferred contracts could also weaken if export demand and feed consumption fail to provide a sufficient counterweight. Corn Price Forecast: Export Performance Is Key The near-term outlook for corn remains balanced, with stable cash prices and export shipments above last year's levels providing some support. At the same time, the advancing US crop and the potential for faster harvesting create a risk of increased supply pressure. The market's direction will depend on whether export demand continues to absorb the new crop. A sustained improvement in shipments, combined with further international tenders, would help support prices. Conversely, weaker demand or an acceleration in harvest activity could push futures lower. Into the final months of 2026, traders should pay particular attention to weekly export inspections, US harvest progress, Chinese import projections and the relative competitiveness of corn against sorghum and other feed grains. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next US harvest progress: Faster harvesting could increase available supplies and weigh on nearby futures. Export inspections: Continued year-over-year growth would indicate that demand is helping absorb the new crop. Asian import tenders: Purchases from South Korea, Japan and other importers could provide additional demand support. Chinese grain demand: Changes in corn and sorghum imports could influence the balance of global feed-grain trade. Cash and futures spreads: Changes in the relationship between cash prices and futures may offer clues about local availability and demand. Currency Hedger View Corn prices are being supported by resilient export demand, but the expanding US harvest remains a significant source of potential pressure. Cumulative export shipments are ahead of last year's pace, and recent South Korean purchases reinforce the importance of international demand. However, slower expected Chinese corn imports and substitution towards sorghum could limit the market's upside. The key issue is whether exports can continue to absorb incoming supplies as harvest activity accelerates. Businesses exposed to grain procurement and agricultural trade should monitor both commodity-price movements and foreign-exchange volatility, as currency changes can influence the cost of cross-border purchases and the value of export revenues. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a solicitation to trade. Commodity and futures markets involve significant risk, and prices can move against expectations. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and may not materialise. Conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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October 14, 2026

Soybean Prices Outlook: US Harvest Delays and Stronger Annual Exports Support Demand

Soybean prices remain sensitive to harvest progress, export demand and developments in China, with futures facing near-term pressure despite US shipments running well ahead of last year's pace. The latest market data point to a mixed outlook: harvest progress is lagging the normal schedule, cumulative exports are stronger year over year, but soybean meal and soybean oil weakness is weighing on the broader complex. Looking ahead, traders will monitor whether export demand can sustain support for prices as the US harvest advances and global supply becomes clearer. Chinese purchasing activity, processing margins and demand for soybean products are also likely to influence price direction into the final months of 2026. Market Snapshot November 2026 CBOT soybeans: $12.83¾ per bushel. January 2027 CBOT soybeans: $13.00 per bushel. March 2027 CBOT soybeans: $13.08½ per bushel. US national average cash soybean price: $12.25¾ per bushel. US soybean harvest: 46% complete, four percentage points behind normal. Cumulative US soybean export shipments: 5.144 million metric tonnes, 26.6% above the same period last year. Chinese state reserve auction: Sinograin sold 209,904 tonnes of soybeans from 518,000 tonnes offered. Soybean Price Action: Futures Face Near-Term Pressure Soybean futures have come under pressure, with contracts declining as the market balances export demand against harvest availability and conditions across the wider agricultural complex. The national average cash soybean price has also softened, while soybean meal and soybean oil futures have recorded further losses. Weakness across soybean products can influence processing economics and market sentiment. Soymeal demand is linked to livestock feed consumption, while soybean oil prices respond to vegetable oil competition, biofuel demand and energy-market developments. Sustained weakness in both products could limit the upside for soybeans unless stronger export demand or supply concerns provide an offset. The futures curve, with January and March 2027 contracts trading above November futures, will remain important to monitor as traders assess the availability of nearby supplies against expectations for the coming months. US Harvest Progress: Delays Provide Some Support The latest crop progress figures show that 46% of the US soybean crop has been harvested, leaving progress four percentage points behind the normal pace. Crop condition ratings remain unchanged at 57% good to excellent, while the Brugler500 index stands at 350. The slower harvest could temporarily affect the flow of newly harvested supplies into the market. However, a delay does not automatically imply lower production. The eventual price impact will depend on yields, weather conditions, harvest completion and the quantity of soybeans available for storage, processing and export. If harvest delays persist or adverse weather interferes with fieldwork, nearby futures could receive support. Conversely, favourable conditions and a rapid acceleration in harvesting could increase available supplies and reinforce near-term price pressure. Export Demand: US Shipments Remain Ahead of Last Year US soybean export inspections reached 1.097 million metric tonnes in the latest reported week. Although shipments declined 8.6% from the previous week, they were 7.8% higher than during the corresponding period last year. China was the largest destination, receiving 649,252 tonnes. Mexico accounted for 99,756 tonnes, while Egypt received 79,022 tonnes. Cumulative marketing-year shipments have reached 5.144 million tonnes, putting exports 26.6% ahead of the same period last year. This stronger annual comparison provides an important source of underlying support, even as weekly shipments fluctuate. The key question is whether this pace can be maintained as the US harvest progresses and exporters compete with supplies from South America. Continued strong shipments would help absorb new-crop availability and improve the demand outlook. A slowdown, particularly in purchases from China, could leave the market more exposed to harvest pressure. China: Purchasing Activity Remains a Key Market Driver China remains central to the soybean outlook because of its importance as a major importer and its influence on global trade flows. The latest reported auction saw China's state reserve operator, Sinograin, sell 209,904 tonnes of soybeans from 518,000 tonnes offered, representing approximately 40.5% of the volume available. The auction provides a useful indication of activity in China's domestic soybean market, but it should not be interpreted in isolation as a direct signal of stronger or weaker import demand. The wider outlook will depend on crushing requirements, feed demand, domestic inventories, import economics and the relative competitiveness of US and South American supplies. Stronger Chinese buying of US soybeans could support futures, especially if export commitments translate into sustained physical shipments. Conversely, a shift towards alternative origins or weaker domestic crushing demand could constrain the market. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil: Processing Margins in Focus Soybean meal and soybean oil have both weakened, creating an additional consideration for the broader soybean complex. Soymeal prices depend heavily on livestock feed demand, protein-meal competition and the pace of crushing. Soybean oil is influenced by food consumption, biofuel policies, vegetable oil production and movements in crude oil prices. If meal and oil demand improves, processors may have greater incentive to maintain or increase soybean crushing, supporting demand for raw beans. However, if product prices continue to fall faster than soybean prices, processing margins could deteriorate and potentially reduce buying interest from crushers. The direction of both products will therefore be important in determining whether soybeans can recover from their recent weakness. Bullish Scenario: Strong Exports and Harvest Delays Support Prices A bullish scenario could develop if robust export demand continues to offset the supply entering the market during the US harvest. Potential catalysts include: Sustained Chinese demand for US-origin soybeans. Continued cumulative export growth above last year's pace. Harvest delays caused by adverse weather. Stronger soybean meal demand from the livestock sector. A recovery in soybean oil prices supported by vegetable oil or biofuel demand. Under these conditions, soybean futures could stabilise and attempt to extend their recovery, with the January and March 2027 contracts benefiting if demand remains firm beyond the immediate harvest period. Confirmation would require continued export strength, improving demand for soybean products or evidence that harvest-related supply pressure is easing. Bearish Scenario: Harvest Supplies and Product Weakness Weigh on Futures The bearish outlook would strengthen if harvest progress accelerates and export demand fails to absorb the increased availability. Factors that could pressure prices include: A rapid completion of the US harvest. Weakening Chinese purchases of US soybeans. Greater competition from South American exporters. Further declines in soybean meal and soybean oil prices. Deteriorating processing margins that reduce crushing demand. If these conditions combine, soybean futures could remain under pressure despite cumulative exports being ahead of last year's pace. The market would then focus more heavily on the volume of newly available supplies and the ability of international demand to absorb them. Soybean Price Forecast: Demand Must Keep Pace With Harvest Supply The near-term outlook remains mixed. Stronger year-over-year export shipments and slower harvest progress offer potential support, but recent weakness in futures and soybean products suggests the market still faces meaningful supply and demand uncertainty. The next phase of price direction will depend on whether export demand, particularly from China, can maintain momentum as more US soybeans become available. A sustained improvement in meal and oil prices could also reinforce the market by supporting crushing demand. Into the final months of 2026, traders should watch export inspections, Chinese purchasing activity, harvest progress and processing margins. These indicators will help determine whether the current weakness represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a more sustained decline. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next US harvest progress: Faster harvesting could increase nearby supply pressure, while weather-related delays may provide temporary support. Chinese demand: Import purchases and domestic crushing activity will remain key drivers of export expectations. Weekly export inspections: Continued year-over-year growth would help demonstrate that demand is absorbing available supplies. Soybean meal and oil: Changes in product prices and processing margins could affect crusher demand for raw beans. South American competition: Crop prospects and export pricing in Brazil and Argentina could influence demand for US supplies. Currency Hedger View Soybeans are balancing stronger annual US export shipments against near-term futures weakness, harvest uncertainty and declining soybean meal and oil prices. The four-percentage-point lag in US harvest progress may provide temporary support, but the sustainability of any recovery will depend on demand keeping pace with incoming supplies. China remains a central variable, while developments in South American production and the wider vegetable oil market could influence price direction through the remainder of 2026. Businesses exposed to agricultural commodities should also consider exchange-rate volatility, as currency movements can alter the cost of imported soybeans, animal feed and related products. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a solicitation to trade. Commodity and futures markets involve significant risk, and prices can move against expectations. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and may not materialise. Conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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October 14, 2026

Wheat Prices Outlook: Tight US Supplies and Oversold Conditions Support a Potential Rally

Wheat prices remain supported by a longer-term technical trend, with the market trading above its 200-day moving average for much of the year. Despite recent selling pressure across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures, tightening US supplies, slower planting progress and changing global trade dynamics could create opportunities for a recovery into the end of 2026 and early 2027. The latest USDA outlook points to a complex global picture: higher overall supplies and consumption, reduced international trade and slightly lower ending stocks. While export competition remains significant, weather risks and logistical disruptions could provide support if supply concerns intensify. Market Snapshot Chicago SRW wheat: December 2026 futures at $6.69¼ per bushel, with March 2027 at $6.83¼. Kansas City HRW wheat: December 2026 futures at $7.12¼ per bushel, with March 2027 at $7.25. Minneapolis spring wheat: December 2026 futures at $6.94 per bushel, with March 2027 at $7.12½. US winter wheat planting: 51% complete, seven percentage points behind the five-year average. US wheat export inspections: 304,660 metric tonnes in the latest reported week, up slightly from the previous week but significantly below the same period last year. Global ending stocks: Forecast at 276.0 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season. Wheat Price Action: Selling Pressure Meets Potential Technical Support Wheat futures have recently experienced a broad-based pullback, with Chicago soft red winter, Kansas City hard red winter and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts all recording losses. The latest declines reflect the market's ongoing assessment of export demand, global availability and competition among major producing countries. However, the longer-term technical picture remains important. Wheat has spent much of the year above its 200-day moving average, a level commonly monitored by market participants to assess the underlying trend. If prices stabilise and buying interest returns, the recent correction could develop into a recovery rather than a sustained bearish reversal. After an extended period of selling, traders will be watching for evidence that downside momentum is fading. A sustained move higher, supported by stronger demand or renewed supply concerns, would strengthen the case for a broader rebound. US Wheat Supply: Drought and Limited Acreage Remain Key Risks US wheat fundamentals remain a significant consideration for the outlook. The USDA Economic Research Service projects US wheat exports at a three-year low, while domestic supplies face pressure from drought conditions and a historically small planted area. The latest winter wheat crop progress figures show planting at 51%, trailing the five-year average by seven percentage points. Crop emergence stands at 27%. Continued delays could leave the market sensitive to adverse weather, although the ultimate effect on production will depend on subsequent planting progress, growing conditions and crop development. These factors create a potential source of support. If US production prospects deteriorate or available supplies tighten further, prices could respond even if export demand remains below historical levels. Global Wheat Outlook: Consumption Rises as Trade Weakens The USDA's October 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report presents a mixed global outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year. Global wheat supplies are forecast to increase, while consumption is projected to rise by 1.2 million tonnes to 827.9 million tonnes. The increase is primarily attributed to higher feed and residual use in China and the European Union. At the same time, global trade is expected to decline. Ending stocks are projected to edge lower to 276.0 million tonnes, as reductions in the European Union, China, Argentina, Egypt and several other markets are nearly offset by increases in Russia, Australia and the United States. This combination suggests that the market is not facing an immediate global shortage. Nevertheless, rising consumption and slightly lower projected ending stocks could limit the extent of a sustained price decline if supply disruptions or stronger-than-expected demand emerge. Export Demand: Weak US Shipments Offset by International Buying US wheat export inspections totalled 304,660 metric tonnes in the latest reported week. Although shipments increased by 0.66% from the previous week, they remained 31.92% below the corresponding period a year earlier. South Korea was the largest reported destination, receiving 75,240 tonnes, followed by Mexico at 72,047 tonnes and Sri Lanka at 67,640 tonnes. Cumulative marketing-year shipments reached approximately 6.98 million tonnes, still 35.87% below the same period last year. These figures highlight the challenge facing US exporters as they compete in the international market. Weak shipment volumes could continue to constrain rallies unless demand improves. However, Algeria's purchase of nearly 600,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender provides evidence of continuing import demand. Such purchases can influence global price expectations, particularly when they coincide with concerns over crop quality, availability or logistics elsewhere. Russian Exports and Black Sea Disruptions Russia remains the world's leading wheat exporter, but the latest USDA outlook places its 2026/27 export forecast at 40.0 million tonnes, the lowest in five years. Logistical disruptions associated with the continuing conflict in the Black Sea region have reduced shipments to date relative to their long-term average. If these constraints persist or intensify, importers may need to adjust sourcing strategies, potentially supporting prices in competing origins. The effect on global wheat prices will depend on the scale and duration of these disruptions, as well as the ability of other major exporters to compensate for any shortfall. Higher supplies in Australia and the United States may help offset some of the pressure, limiting the potential for a sustained global supply shock. European Production: French Wheat Crop Revised Lower France's farm ministry estimates the 2026 wheat crop at 31.5 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Although the revision is relatively modest, European production remains relevant to the international price outlook because the European Union is a major participant in global wheat trade. Further downward revisions, combined with stronger consumption or export demand, could tighten the regional balance and provide additional support to prices. Conversely, stable production and competitive export offers would increase the likelihood that international buyers continue to have access to sufficient supplies. Bullish Scenario: Wheat Rebounds into Early 2027 A bullish scenario could develop if technical support holds and the market begins to respond more positively to underlying supply risks. Potential catalysts include: Further deterioration in US crop conditions or planting progress. Continued logistical disruptions affecting Russian and Black Sea shipments. Stronger-than-expected international tenders and import demand. Additional reductions in European or other major exporters' production estimates. A recovery above key technical levels following the recent selloff. Under this scenario, Chicago wheat could move back towards the $7.00 level and potentially extend gains if momentum strengthens. Kansas City wheat may remain supported by its higher price level and changes in hard red winter wheat supply expectations. These are conditional market scenarios, not guaranteed price targets. Confirmation would require stronger buying activity and evidence that the market is moving beyond its recent downward momentum. Bearish Scenario: Abundant Global Supplies Cap the Recovery The bearish outlook remains relevant if global production and export competition outweigh concerns about tighter US supplies. Factors that could pressure prices include: Continued weak US export shipments. Increased availability from Russia, Australia and other major exporters. Slower-than-expected growth in global import demand. Further declines in futures prices that undermine the longer-term technical trend. Improved crop conditions that reduce concerns over the next US harvest. If these factors dominate, wheat futures could remain under pressure and revisit recent support areas. A sustained move below the 200-day moving average would weaken the bullish technical case and suggest that the recent decline may be more than a temporary correction. Wheat Price Forecast: Focus on Recovery Potential and Confirmation The near-term outlook is mixed, but the balance of risks could become more supportive if the market stabilises after its extended selloff. The longer-term trend, constrained US production prospects and potential disruption to Black Sea exports provide reasons to monitor the market for a recovery. The main obstacle remains weak US export performance and the availability of competing global supplies. Without an improvement in demand or a clearer tightening of the supply outlook, any rally could be limited or short-lived. Into the end of 2026 and early 2027, the key question is whether wheat can convert its underlying support factors into sustained price momentum. Traders should monitor the 200-day moving average, US planting progress, USDA revisions, export inspections and international tenders for confirmation. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next The following developments are likely to shape the next phase of the wheat market: US planting and weather: Delays or deteriorating conditions could increase uncertainty around future production. Export inspections: A sustained improvement in US shipments would help strengthen the demand outlook. Black Sea logistics: Changes in Russian export flows and regional disruption risks could affect global availability. USDA balance-sheet revisions: Changes to production, consumption, trade and ending stocks will help clarify whether global fundamentals are tightening. Technical momentum: Stabilisation above key support levels and a recovery in buying interest would strengthen the case for a rebound. Currency Hedger View Wheat's outlook reflects the interaction of technical momentum, weather-sensitive production, export competition and geopolitical risks. Although global supplies remain substantial, the combination of constrained US acreage, slower planting progress and potential Black Sea disruptions could help prices recover if demand strengthens or supply estimates deteriorate. The bullish case is not yet assured. Weak US shipments and competing export supplies remain significant headwinds, making confirmation through price action and fresh fundamental data essential. Businesses exposed to agricultural commodities should also monitor currency movements, as exchange-rate changes can influence the local cost of imported grain and international procurement. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger or explore currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a solicitation to trade. Commodity and futures markets involve significant risk, and prices can move against expectations. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and may not materialise. Conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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October 13, 2026

Metals Commodities: Lithium Carbonate Leads Losses as Precious Metals Advance

Metals markets are showing divergent price action, with lithium carbonate leading the declines while iron ore and aluminum alloy also trade lower. Platinum and gold are moving higher, highlighting the different supply-demand and macroeconomic forces influencing industrial metals and precious metals. Market Snapshot Market trend: Mixed, with industrial metals under pressure and precious metals advancing Leading loser: Lithium carbonate, down 3.25% Other declines: Iron ore CNY, down 0.88%; aluminum alloy, down 0.58% Leading gainer: Platinum, up 1.15% Additional gain: Gold, up 0.37% Key drivers: Battery demand, industrial activity, Chinese commodity demand, interest rates, the US dollar and investor demand for safe-haven assets Lithium Carbonate: Supply and Battery Demand in Focus Lithium carbonate is the weakest performer in the metals snapshot, falling 3.25%. The decline places renewed attention on the balance between lithium supply and demand from the electric vehicle and battery-storage industries. Lithium prices are particularly sensitive to changes in battery manufacturing activity, electric vehicle sales, inventory levels and production decisions across the supply chain. If production remains plentiful while battery manufacturers purchase cautiously, prices could face further downward pressure. However, the longer-term outlook will also depend on the pace of electrification, investment in energy storage and the extent to which producers adjust output in response to lower prices. Production curtailments, stronger battery demand or supply disruptions could help stabilise the market. For the coming sessions, traders should monitor changes in lithium availability, battery-sector purchasing and production guidance. A sustained recovery would require evidence that demand is absorbing available supply more effectively. Iron Ore: Chinese Demand Remains Critical Iron ore CNY is down 0.88%, reflecting continued sensitivity to industrial demand and the outlook for steel production. China remains the central influence on the global iron ore market, given its importance in steel manufacturing and seaborne imports. Elevated inventories, strong shipments and subdued steel demand can weigh on prices by reducing the need for additional purchases. Conversely, stronger infrastructure activity, improved construction demand or higher steel production could provide support. The immediate outlook will depend on whether Chinese steelmakers increase procurement or remain cautious amid uncertain end-user demand. Persistent supply availability combined with weak steel consumption would leave iron ore vulnerable to further losses. Market participants should watch port inventories, shipment volumes, steel production and policy measures affecting China's construction and industrial sectors. Aluminum Alloy: Industrial Conditions Under Scrutiny Aluminum alloy is down 0.58%, adding to the weakness across parts of the industrial metals complex. Its outlook is closely linked to manufacturing activity, transportation, construction and demand from other aluminum-consuming industries. Weak industrial orders or uncertainty about global economic growth could weigh on demand expectations. Higher production costs, supply disruptions or stronger manufacturing activity could provide countervailing support. The market's next move will depend on whether industrial consumption improves enough to offset available supply. A sustained decline in manufacturing demand would increase downside risks, while improving order books and tighter inventories could encourage a recovery. Platinum: Strongest Performer in the Snapshot Platinum is gaining 1.15%, making it the strongest performer among the metals listed. The advance contrasts with the declines in lithium carbonate, iron ore and aluminum alloy, suggesting that individual market fundamentals and investment flows are playing different roles across the sector. Platinum demand is influenced by automotive applications, industrial uses, jewellery demand and investment activity. Supply conditions in major producing regions can also contribute to price volatility. Further gains could be supported by tighter supply expectations, stronger industrial demand or renewed investor interest in precious metals. However, weaker automotive production, disappointing industrial activity or a reversal in investment flows could limit the advance. Traders should assess whether the current strength is supported by sustained buying and improving fundamentals rather than relying on a single price movement as evidence of a lasting bullish trend. Gold: Macroeconomic and Safe-Haven Demand Gold is up 0.37%, extending the positive side of the metals market snapshot. Unlike industrial metals, gold is particularly sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar movements, central-bank purchases and demand for defensive assets during periods of economic or geopolitical uncertainty. A softer dollar or expectations of lower interest rates can support gold by improving affordability for non-dollar buyers and reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Persistent geopolitical risks and investor demand for portfolio protection may also provide support. Conversely, a stronger dollar, rising real yields or reduced demand for safe-haven assets could limit further gains. The near-term outlook will depend on incoming inflation and employment data, central-bank expectations, currency movements and developments affecting global risk sentiment. Macroeconomic Outlook: Industrial Metals Versus Precious Metals The contrast between falling industrial metals and rising precious metals highlights the importance of separating growth-sensitive demand from investment-driven demand. Lithium carbonate, iron ore and aluminum alloy are closely linked to manufacturing, construction, battery production and industrial activity. Weak demand expectations or abundant supplies can therefore place pressure on their prices. Gold and platinum respond to a different combination of factors. Gold is heavily influenced by monetary conditions and safe-haven flows, while platinum also depends on industrial and automotive demand. Their gains do not necessarily indicate that the wider metals complex is entering a broad-based rally. Foreign exchange movements are another important consideration. A stronger US dollar can weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices, while changes in energy prices, freight costs and financing conditions can affect production expenses and trade flows. The direction of the US dollar, global interest rates and Chinese industrial demand will remain important indicators for the next phase of price action. Bullish Scenario: Demand Improves and Supply Tightens A broader recovery across metals could develop if industrial demand strengthens and supply conditions become less comfortable. Potential upside catalysts include: Stronger electric vehicle and battery-storage demand supporting lithium consumption. Improved Chinese construction activity and higher steel production supporting iron ore. A recovery in global manufacturing and aluminum consumption. Tighter platinum supply or stronger automotive and industrial demand. Lower real interest rates, a softer US dollar or stronger safe-haven demand supporting gold. If several of these conditions emerge together, the current declines in industrial metals could stabilise while precious metals retain upward momentum. Confirmation would require stronger price action supported by changes in physical demand, inventories or investment flows. Bearish Scenario: Industrial Weakness and Stronger Dollar Pressure Prices The downside scenario would intensify if industrial activity deteriorates and available metal supplies remain abundant. Key risks include: Continued weakness in battery-sector purchasing and excess lithium availability. Elevated iron ore inventories and subdued Chinese steel demand. Slower global manufacturing and weaker aluminum consumption. Reduced industrial demand for platinum. A stronger US dollar or rising real yields limiting gold's appeal. Under this scenario, lithium carbonate could remain particularly vulnerable if supply continues to exceed battery-sector demand. Iron ore and aluminum alloy could also face further pressure, while platinum and gold would be more dependent on their individual fundamentals and broader financial-market conditions. Metals Commodities Forecast The near-term outlook remains mixed. Lithium carbonate's 3.25% decline places it firmly at the bottom of the current snapshot, followed by iron ore CNY at 0.88% lower and aluminum alloy at 0.58% lower. Platinum is up 1.15%, while gold gains 0.37%. Industrial metals remain exposed to changes in production, inventories and global manufacturing demand. Precious metals have additional support or resistance from interest-rate expectations, currency movements and investor positioning. A sustained improvement in industrial metals would require clearer evidence of stronger consumption or tighter supply. For gold, the direction of real yields and the US dollar will remain central, while platinum will need confirmation from industrial demand and supply conditions. For now, the market favours a selective approach, with individual commodity fundamentals likely to matter more than the overall direction of the metals complex. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next The next phase of trading will depend on developments in battery demand, Chinese steel production, manufacturing indicators, precious-metal investment flows and the direction of the US dollar. For lithium carbonate, the priority is determining whether supply is being absorbed by battery manufacturers. Iron ore traders should monitor Chinese inventories and steel demand, while aluminum alloy will remain sensitive to industrial activity. Platinum's supply-demand balance and gold's response to interest-rate expectations and geopolitical risk will also be important. If industrial demand weakens further, pressure on lithium carbonate, iron ore and aluminum alloy could persist. If monetary conditions become more supportive or geopolitical uncertainty intensifies, gold could find additional support, while platinum's performance will depend on its industrial and investment drivers. Currency Hedger View The divergence across metals demonstrates how commodity exposure can affect international business cash flows in different ways. Battery manufacturers, industrial buyers, metal producers and commodity traders may face changing procurement costs, revenue expectations and working-capital requirements as prices move. Foreign exchange movements can amplify or offset these changes, particularly for businesses purchasing raw materials in one currency and generating revenue in another. Monitoring commodity trends alongside currency exposure can help businesses assess potential cost fluctuations and plan international payments more effectively. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Website: https://currencyhedger.com/ Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Market prices can fluctuate significantly, and forecasts are uncertain. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.

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October 13, 2026

Agricultural Commodities: Sugar Leads Losses

The key story is the divergence across agricultural commodities: sugar, corn and oats are under pressure, while canola is posting a modest gain. For the outlook, the important question is whether these moves develop into a broader weakness across agricultural markets or remain commodity-specific. Market Snapshot Market trend: Mixed, with a bearish bias across several agricultural commodities Leading loser: Sugar, down 0.90% Other declines: Corn, down 0.77%; oats, down 0.72% Leading gainer: Canola, up 0.53% Key drivers to monitor: Crop supply, weather conditions, export demand, inventories and broader commodity-market sentiment Sugar Price Outlook: Downside Pressure Persists Sugar is leading the agricultural commodity declines, falling 0.90% as selling pressure weighs on the market. The next move will depend on the balance between global sugar availability and demand from food manufacturers, consumers and industrial users. Ample supplies, favourable crop prospects in major producing countries or weaker import demand could reinforce the downward trend. Conversely, adverse weather, production disruptions or stronger export demand could provide support and trigger a recovery. Market participants should monitor crop estimates, export availability and changes in inventories to determine whether the current weakness is developing into a sustained decline or creating the conditions for stabilisation. Corn Market: Demand and Crop Supply in Focus Corn is down 0.77%, placing it among the weakest-performing agricultural commodities in the current snapshot. Its outlook will depend on the interaction between harvest progress, crop yields, export competitiveness and demand from livestock feed and ethanol production. Expectations of abundant harvests could continue to weigh on prices, particularly if inventories increase and overseas buyers have sufficient supply options. However, adverse weather, lower-than-expected yields or stronger export demand could alter the balance and support a rebound. The coming sessions are likely to place greater emphasis on crop production estimates, export sales and evidence of changing demand. Until a clearer catalyst emerges, corn remains exposed to further fluctuations as traders reassess the global supply-demand balance. Oats: Further Weakness Remains Possible Oats are down 0.72%, extending the pattern of losses across several agricultural markets. Price direction will depend on crop availability, regional weather conditions, feed demand and the competitiveness of alternative grains. If supplies remain comfortable and demand fails to strengthen, prices could face additional pressure. A deterioration in crop prospects or a recovery in feed demand, however, could help stabilise the market. Traders should watch for changes in production expectations and inventory levels rather than assuming that the current decline will necessarily continue. Canola: Relative Strength Amid Mixed Conditions Canola is the strongest performer in the snapshot, gaining 0.53% while sugar, corn and oats move lower. Its positive performance suggests that agricultural commodities are not moving uniformly, with individual supply-demand factors continuing to influence price direction. Canola prices may find support from concerns over oilseed production, weather-related risks, export demand and demand for vegetable oils and biofuel feedstocks. The strength of competing oilseeds and changes in global vegetable-oil inventories will also be important. To establish whether the advance can continue, market participants should look for confirmation from physical demand, export activity and production estimates. A single session of gains is not sufficient to confirm a sustained bullish trend. Macroeconomic Outlook: Currencies, Energy and Agricultural Trade Agricultural commodities are influenced by more than crop fundamentals. Exchange rates can change the competitiveness of exports, while energy prices affect fuel, fertiliser, processing and transportation costs. A stronger US dollar can make dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for some overseas buyers, potentially affecting demand. Currency movements also influence the local-currency revenues received by exporters and the cost of imported agricultural inputs. Energy-market fluctuations can have mixed effects. Higher fuel and fertiliser costs may increase production expenses, while changes in biofuel economics can affect demand for corn and vegetable oils, including canola. Global trade conditions, interest rates and economic growth will remain important background factors. However, the impact will differ across commodities, making individual crop balances and regional supply conditions essential to the forecast. Bullish Scenario: Supply Risks Support a Recovery Agricultural commodities could recover if supply concerns intensify or demand proves stronger than expected. Potential upside catalysts include: Adverse weather affecting crop yields in major producing regions. Stronger-than-expected export demand for sugar, corn, oats or canola. Lower production estimates or declining inventories. A recovery in industrial, feed or biofuel demand. Currency movements that improve export competitiveness in key producing countries. Under this scenario, the current losses could attract buying interest, particularly in markets where production risks increase or available supplies become tighter. Confirmation would require stronger price action alongside improving physical-market indicators. Bearish Scenario: Abundant Supplies Extend the Declines The downside scenario remains relevant if crop availability is comfortable and demand fails to absorb production. Key risks include: Favourable harvest conditions and higher-than-expected yields. Rising inventories or increased export availability. Weaker import demand from major consuming countries. Reduced demand from livestock feed, food processing or biofuel production. Currency and trade conditions that intensify competition among exporters. If these factors persist, sugar, corn and oats could face further pressure. Canola's relative strength could also fade if oilseed supply expands or demand expectations weaken. Agricultural Commodities Forecast The short-term outlook is mixed, with sugar, corn and oats showing downside momentum while canola provides a contrasting positive signal. Sugar's 0.90% decline makes it the weakest of the four commodities, followed by corn at 0.77% lower and oats at 0.72% lower. Canola's 0.53% gain indicates that the broader agricultural complex is experiencing divergent price movements rather than a uniform sell-off. The next phase will depend on whether the declines are supported by fundamental changes in supply and demand. Strong harvests and comfortable inventories would favour continued weakness, while production risks or stronger buying could encourage stabilisation. For now, the outlook favours close monitoring of individual market fundamentals rather than treating the agricultural sector as a single directional trade. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Market participants should focus on crop production forecasts, harvest progress, weather developments, export sales and inventory data. For sugar, production and export availability will be central. Corn traders will need to assess harvest yields, feed consumption and ethanol demand, while oats will remain sensitive to regional crop conditions and alternative-grain pricing. Canola's performance will depend on oilseed supply, vegetable-oil demand and biofuel-related developments. Currency movements and energy prices should also remain on the watchlist because they can influence production costs and international competitiveness. If supply remains plentiful and demand subdued, the weaker-performing commodities could face additional selling pressure. If crop risks increase or demand strengthens, a recovery becomes more plausible. The market's direction will depend on whether the next round of fundamental data confirms or challenges current expectations. Currency Hedger View Diverging agricultural commodity prices highlight the importance of assessing individual market conditions alongside foreign exchange exposure. For agricultural traders, importers, exporters and food manufacturers, commodity-price changes and currency movements can combine to affect procurement costs, sales revenues and operating margins. A stronger or weaker currency can alter the effective cost of imported sugar, corn, oats and oilseeds, while also changing the value of export receipts. Businesses with international supply chains should therefore assess both commodity-price risks and the currencies in which their costs and revenues are denominated. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Website: https://currencyhedger.com/ Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Market prices can fluctuate significantly, and forecasts are uncertain. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.

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Banks

October 13, 2026

British Pound: Cable confined to broad trading band – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe GBP/USD holding relatively resilient versus the US Dollar (USD) but still drifting lower. Intraday price action shows a tentative downside bias within 1.3190–1.3235. For the coming 1–3 weeks, they expect the British Pound (GBP) to remain range‑bound between 1.3170 and 1.3280, with earlier mild downward pressure seen as having eased. Pound-Dollar expected to stay range-bound "24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected GBP to “trade between 1.3215 and 1.3260.” GBP subsequently rose and tested 1.3260 with a high of 1.3261 before dropping to a low of 1.3202. There has been a tentative increase in downward momentum, but while GBP could trade with a downside bias today, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 1.3190/1.3235." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Thursday (08 Oct, spot at 1.3215), we indicated that GBP “could edge lower within a 1.3140/1.3280 range.” Yesterday (12 Oct, spot at 1.3235) we pointed out that “GBP traded in a range over the past couple of days, and the mild downward pressure has eased.” We highlighted that “instead of expecting GBP to edge lower, we expect it to trade in a range between 1.3170 and 1.3280.” We continue to hold the same view."

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Markets

October 13, 2026

Gold bulls seem hesitant below $4,200 as hawkish Fed offset USD weakness

Gold reverses an intraday dip to $4,150 amid a modest USD pullback from an 18-month high. A hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties could limit USD losses, capping the precious metal. Traders might opt to wait for the latest US inflation figures and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. Gold (XAU/USD) retains a mildly positive bias through the first half of the European session, though it remains capped below the $4,200 mark and the top boundary of a two-week-old trading range. The US Dollar (USD) retreats from its highest level since April 2025 amid some profit-taking, offering support to the precious metal. However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance and escalating Middle East conflicts could limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck, keeping a lid on the commodity and warranting some caution for aggressive bulls. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September 15-16 meeting, released last Wednesday, showed that participants emphasized another quarter-point rate increase could be appropriate before the end of 2026 as inflation remains elevated above the 2% target. Adding to this, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's hawkish comments on Monday reaffirmed market bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. Moreover, energy-driven inflation risks underpin prospects for further Fed tightening and keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. Hammack leans hawkish as inflation mindset fears bolster Dollar Fed’s Hammack delivered a notably more hawkish tone, with the 8.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.5/10 historical average, underscoring a stronger-than-usual bias toward tighter policy. The emphasis on the need for higher interest rates, a restrictive stance to push inflation back to 2%, and concerns that an inflationary mindset is becoming ingrained—amid neutral financial conditions and broad, demand-driven price pressures including from AI—signals a preference for relatively quick, smaller rate moves that keep the policy path firmly skewed toward further tightening, a backdrop typically supportive for the Dollar. Hammack’s focus on clarifying the Fed's reaction function and warning that firms are planning price hikes beyond cost increases reinforces the message that the current trend inflation in the mid-to-high 2% range is still inconsistent with the target, warranting sustained hawkish vigilance. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.59 points to 138.92, cementing the Fed’s stance deep in hawkish territory and aligning with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. This upward move well above the neutral 100 mark confirms that recent Fed communication, exemplified by Hammack’s speech, is skewing more decisively toward tighter policy expectations, a configuration that tends to underpin the Dollar against peers. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen escalated its campaign against Saudi Arabia and fired more missiles on Monday. This follows deadly strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport over the weekend, which drew a Saudi vow of retaliation. Moreover, US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of joining strikes on the Houthi group and resuming attacks on Iran. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which backs the case for the emergence of some dip-buying around the safe-haven Greenback and should keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the Gold. Traders might also opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's future policy path before placing fresh directional bets. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the latest US inflation figures – Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok on Friday would drive the USD and the non-yielding Gold. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the subsequent move up is more likely to be sold into and remain capped. US CPI seen as key driver for Fed rate expectations Analysts at Societe Generale highlight that “the week's main non-geopolitical event comes on Wednesday with the release of US CPI,” which they see as pivotal for near-term Fed pricing. They argue that “if we see a pickup in core inflation to 2.5% (the market consensus), there will be little chance of any shift in market expectations: no rate hike this month, but a very strong chance of one in December and another in Q1.” XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis The XAU/USD pair remains confined in a two-week-old range, marking a bearish consolidation against the backdrop of a decline from the August monthly swing high. Moreover, the precious metal remains capped below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which validates the near-term negative bias. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits marginally in negative territory, hinting at fading upside momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 suggests a constructive but modestly cooling bullish tone as the Gold price consolidates beneath the key barrier. Hence, any subsequent move up might confront initial resistance near the 100-period SMA at $4,204. This is followed by the top boundary of the trading range, around $4,218, with the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,241 forming the next hurdle before a broader supply cluster emerges between the 50.0% retracement at $4,328 and the 38.2% level at $4,415, ahead of the 23.6% retracement at $4,523 and the cycle peak near $4,697. On the downside, immediate support aligns at the 78.6% retracement at $4,117, and a convincing break below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders, exposing the structural floor around the prior swing low at $3,959.

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Banks

October 13, 2026

Equities: Rotation out of AI as breadth stays positive – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team highlights that global equities finished broadly flat, masking notable rotation as investors cut AI and semiconductor exposure. Europe and defensive sectors outperformed, with consumer staples leading. Despite a marginal S&P 500 decline, breadth remained strong and the equal-weighted index outperformed, challenging narratives of narrow US leadership signalling an imminent broader correction. AI and semiconductors under pressure "Global equities finished broadly flat on Monday, but the headline concealed substantial rotation as investors cut AI exposure, particularly semiconductors, among this year's strongest performers. Europe and defensives outperformed, with consumer staples leading sector returns. " "Despite the marginal decline in the S&P 500, 321 constituents advanced versus 179 that declined, marking the seventh session in eight with positive breadth and another day of outperformance for the equal weighted index." "We remain cautious about historical parallels: leadership has been driven predominantly by substantially stronger earnings growth rather than relative multiple expansion, an important distinction when assessing its vulnerability." "The rotation away from AI and not least semiconductors continue this morning, with Korea's KOSPI down around 7%." "European and US futures are mixed, with defensive exposure providing support while AI and semiconductors remain under pressure.

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Banks

October 13, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI support points to softer pair – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s India section notes September CPI at 5.5% year-on-year, above August and near breaching the RBI’s target band, with risks skewed to the upside from Oil, INR weakness and El Niño. The authors flag RBI’s recent FX measures that strengthened the Indian Rupee and suggest USD/INR could ease back toward the 94–96 range in the near term as hedging costs rise for importers. RBI actions underpin Indian Rupee "September CPI inflation rose to 5.5% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 5.6%) vs 4.8% in August, the highest reading since December 2024.The increase was led by higher food prices, but there were also signs that price pressures could be broadening out. Headline inflation is expected to breach the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2-6% target range as early as October." "Last week, RBI projects inflation to average 6.0% in Q4 2026 and raised the forecast for fiscal year 2026-2027 to 5.2% from 5.0% previously. Overall, inflation risks are broadening beyond supply-side factors and remain tilted to the upside due to elevated oil prices, INR weakness and weaker rainfall amid the El Niño weather phenomenon." "On monetary policy, upside risks to inflation leaves the door open for RBI to hike by another 25bp to 5.75% at the next meeting on 4 December and possibly another 25bp in Q1 2027. RBI has signalled a calibrated tightening bias." "In FX, USD/INR fell nearly 1.0% to 95.78 yesterday following RBI measures aimed at supporting the INR. These included a special USD facility for state-run oil marketing companies and a reduction in the threshold for INR derivatives without an underlying asset to USD5mn from USD100mn." "RBI also introduced a new Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve (FERR), requiring 20% of the notional value of each FX derivative transaction above USD2mn to be held with the central bank. The measures could support the INR while raising hedging costs for importers." "We could see USD/INR ease back to the 94-96 range near term."

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Banks

October 13, 2026

Oil: Market focuses on Persian Gulf risks – ING

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices remain supported as traders focus on Middle East and Persian Gulf supply risks rather than the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Brent has pushed back toward $107/bbl, while hurricane-related disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and Saudi plans to expand pipeline capacity add further supply-side complexity for the market. Brent supported by supply concerns "The weakness in the oil market following President Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was short-lived. That goes, too, for the US-Russia diesel export deal. ICE Brent settled 1.8% higher, just shy of $107/bbl yesterday — the highest close since mid-September." "Clearly, the market is more concerned over recent developments in the Middle East, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the lingering risks to oil flows from the Persian Gulf." "While diesel initially saw some weakness following the US-Russia deal, strength has returned. The volumes suggested are doing little to offset the tightness in the global middle distillate market." "The Persian Gulf could see further bypass volumes in a relatively short time period. The Saudi Energy Minister said that the country is looking to expand its pipeline export capacity to 10m b/d, up from a current 7m b/d." "Meanwhile, hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico continues to disrupt offshore operations for US producers; they’ve shut in almost 605k b/d of oil production, which is equivalent to nearly 30% of total US production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Marine Minerals Administration."

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Markets

October 13, 2026

Iron Ore Prices Approach Four-Year Lows as Supply Outpaces Steel Demand

Iron ore prices remain under significant pressure as abundant global supply, elevated Chinese port inventories and easing freight costs reinforce the bearish outlook for the steelmaking raw material. With mining companies increasing shipments and global steel demand facing renewed uncertainty, the market risks further downside unless Chinese consumption improves or supply growth begins to moderate. Market Snapshot Market trend: Bearish Price region: CNY 680 per tonne Primary pressure: Expanding global supply and elevated Chinese inventories Demand outlook: Weak, with global steel demand forecast to contract in 2026 Key market drivers: Chinese steel production, iron ore shipments, freight rates and geopolitical developments Iron Ore Price Action: Downside Risks Remain Elevated Iron ore futures are approaching four-year lows near CNY 680 per tonne, reflecting persistent concerns about oversupply and weakening demand. The market continues to struggle against a combination of increasing production capacity, strong seaborne arrivals and limited evidence of a sustained recovery in steel consumption. Mining companies are boosting fourth-quarter shipments to meet production and annual delivery targets. Additional volumes from smaller mining operations are also contributing to elevated arrivals at Chinese ports, increasing the amount of readily available material in the world's largest iron ore market. Unless demand strengthens sufficiently to absorb these volumes, inventory accumulation is likely to remain a significant obstacle to price recovery. Supply and Demand: A Growing Imbalance The supply outlook remains one of the strongest bearish influences on iron ore. Expanding mining capacity and increased shipments from established and smaller producers are adding to global availability at a time when steel demand is struggling to gain momentum. China remains central to the outlook because its steel industry accounts for a substantial share of global iron ore consumption. Elevated port inventories reduce the immediate need for additional imports, particularly if steelmakers remain cautious about production levels and raw-material procurement. The World Steel Association's outlook points to further demand uncertainty, with global steel demand projected to contract by 0.1% in 2026. This reverses its earlier forecast for growth of 0.3%, highlighting the deterioration in expectations for the sector. If this weaker demand outlook persists, iron ore producers may face greater competition to place additional tonnage, potentially encouraging further price adjustments. Freight Costs and Global Shipping Trends Declining freight costs are adding to the pressure on iron ore prices. Industry data indicates that the Capesize C5 route from Australia to China has fallen by $0.64 per tonne, while the C3 route from Brazil to China has declined by $0.37 per tonne. Lower shipping costs can reduce the delivered cost of seaborne iron ore for Chinese buyers. However, cheaper transportation does not necessarily translate into stronger demand. When port inventories are elevated and steel consumption is subdued, reduced freight expenses can make imported material more competitive without resolving the underlying supply imbalance. The continuation of high shipment volumes alongside softer freight rates therefore leaves the market vulnerable to further weakness. Macroeconomic Outlook: China and Geopolitical Risks China's industrial activity, construction sector and steel production remain critical determinants of the medium-term iron ore outlook. Any improvement in infrastructure spending, manufacturing activity or construction demand could support steel consumption and help absorb excess inventories. Conversely, disappointing economic indicators, cautious steel production or weaker construction activity could reinforce expectations of prolonged oversupply. Geopolitical developments, including disruptions associated with the US-Iran conflict, add another layer of uncertainty. Changes in energy prices, global industrial costs and shipping conditions may influence steelmakers' operating margins and purchasing decisions. The direction of these effects will depend on how events develop and whether they materially affect industrial demand or supply-chain costs. Bullish Scenario: Chinese Demand Improves A recovery in iron ore prices would require a meaningful improvement in underlying demand or a moderation in available supply. Potential bullish catalysts include: Stronger Chinese infrastructure and construction activity. Increased steel production that lifts iron ore consumption. A sustained reduction in port inventories. Lower-than-expected mining shipments or production disruptions. Renewed industrial stimulus that improves expectations for steel demand. If these developments emerge together, prices could stabilise and recover from current depressed levels. However, a sustainable bullish reversal would be more convincing if supported by falling inventories and stronger physical buying rather than speculative positioning alone. Bearish Scenario: Oversupply Continues The bearish scenario remains dominant while global supply expands faster than steelmakers can absorb it. Key downside risks include: Continued growth in shipments from major and smaller mining operations. Persistently elevated Chinese port inventories. Further deterioration in global steel demand expectations. Weak construction and industrial activity in China. Continued pressure on steelmakers' profitability, limiting raw-material procurement. If these conditions persist, iron ore could test lower price levels as producers compete to supply the seaborne market. A move below the CNY 680-per-tonne region would increase the importance of subsequent price action and physical inventory data in assessing the next stage of the decline. Iron Ore Price Forecast The near-term outlook remains bearish, with prices vulnerable to further weakness while supply remains abundant and Chinese inventories stay elevated. The approach towards four-year lows indicates that market sentiment is already under considerable pressure, although it does not by itself establish that a durable bottom has formed. The key question for the coming weeks is whether lower prices encourage additional steel production and raw-material buying or whether subdued end-user demand continues to outweigh the benefit of cheaper inputs. A sustained recovery would require evidence that inventories are declining, import demand is strengthening or producers are reducing available supply. Without such confirmation, rallies may struggle to develop into a lasting upward trend. Market Outlook: What to Watch Next Market participants should monitor Chinese port inventories, seaborne shipment data, steel production trends and changes in construction and industrial demand. Freight costs and developments affecting global mining operations will also help determine whether the current supply imbalance is easing. Particular attention should be paid to the relationship between incoming cargoes and actual steel-sector consumption. If arrivals remain strong while demand weakens, the market may face continued downward pressure. If inventories begin to fall and physical buying improves, the risk of stabilisation will increase. For now, the balance of risks favours a cautious stance, with supply growth and uncertain steel demand continuing to weigh on the outlook. Currency Hedger View Iron ore's decline highlights the importance of monitoring commodity prices alongside broader economic and currency-market developments. Persistent weakness in steelmaking raw materials can reflect concerns about Chinese industrial demand, global manufacturing activity and the wider outlook for commodity-linked economies. Businesses with exposure to international commodity purchases, mining revenues or cross-border payments should consider how changing commodity conditions may influence cash flows and currency requirements. The interaction between commodity prices, freight costs and exchange rates can affect landed costs, revenue conversion and operating margins. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Coming Sessions Iron ore's next directional move is likely to depend on whether Chinese demand can absorb continued shipments and begin reducing port inventories. Evidence of stronger steel consumption could provide relief, while further inventory accumulation and weaker demand would reinforce the downside outlook. Until the market shows a clearer improvement in the supply-demand balance, iron ore remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, with Chinese industrial indicators and seaborne shipment trends likely to remain central to price direction. Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Market prices can fluctuate significantly, and forecasts are uncertain. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 13, 2026

Nickel Price Forecast: Oversupply and Dollar Strength Keep Prices Under Pressure

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Nickel prices remain under pressure as ample global supply, elevated exchange inventories and a stronger US dollar weigh on the industrial metal. With nickel trading around $15,600 per tonne in the supplied market snapshot, close to a recent low near $15,510, the market continues to face challenges in establishing a sustained recovery. The near-term outlook remains cautious as weakness in Chinese nickel and stainless steel prices points to subdued sentiment across the metals complex. However, Indonesia's consideration of restrictions on new nickel smelters could become an important longer-term development if it translates into meaningful limits on future production capacity. Over the coming sessions, the balance between persistent oversupply and potential Indonesian supply measures is likely to remain central to the nickel price outlook. Market Snapshot IndicatorMarket ContextNickel priceAround $15,600 per tonneRecent lowApproximately $15,510 per tonneLME inventoriesAround 283,000 tonnes in early OctoberGlobal supplyPersistent oversupplyUS dollarStrength is weighing on dollar-denominated metalsChinaNickel and stainless steel prices have weakenedIndonesiaConsidering a moratorium on new semi-finished nickel smelters Figures reflect the supplied market information and have not been independently verified. Fundamental Drivers Global Oversupply Remains the Main Bearish Factor Nickel continues to face a substantial supply overhang, with elevated LME inventories highlighting the amount of metal available to the market. The reported inventory level of approximately 283,000 tonnes reinforces concerns that supply remains more than sufficient to meet near-term demand. Although production disruptions can temporarily tighten availability, their effect may be limited while inventories remain high and additional material continues to reach the market. A sustained recovery is likely to require clearer evidence that the global surplus is narrowing. The supplied report estimates the global nickel surplus at approximately 2.5 million tonnes. This figure should be treated as a reported estimate rather than a verified measure of immediately available exchange stocks, as global market balances and LME inventories represent different measures. Indonesia's Potential Smelter Restrictions Offer Longer-Term Support Indonesia remains a major influence on the global nickel supply outlook. The country's consideration of a moratorium on new smelters producing semi-finished nickel products has raised the possibility of restrictions on future capacity expansion. If implemented effectively, the measures could slow the addition of new processing capacity and help address persistent oversupply. The impact, however, would depend on the scope of the restrictions, implementation timing and whether existing facilities continue to expand production. For prices, the distinction between a policy proposal and an actual reduction in supply is important. Until there is clear evidence of tighter production or a measurable improvement in the market balance, the announcement alone may not be sufficient to reverse the prevailing downward pressure. Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Industrial Metals The US dollar has been another headwind for nickel. Because the metal is priced internationally in dollars, dollar strength can make nickel more expensive for buyers using other currencies and weigh on demand. The supplied report also points to rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike. If incoming US economic data reinforces expectations for tighter monetary policy, the dollar could remain supported, potentially limiting the scope for a nickel rebound. Conversely, softer US inflation or a decline in rate-hike expectations could ease pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Such a shift might support a recovery, although the effect could be limited if nickel's underlying supply surplus remains unresolved. Chinese Market Weakness Signals Cautious Demand Sentiment Overnight declines in Chinese nickel and stainless steel prices point to continued weakness across the metals complex. China is a key participant in the nickel value chain, making conditions in its stainless steel and industrial sectors important indicators of demand sentiment. If weakness persists in stainless steel, expectations for nickel consumption may deteriorate further. A sustained improvement in Chinese prices and industrial demand would provide a more constructive signal, particularly if accompanied by declining inventories. For now, the combination of soft Chinese pricing and ample global availability leaves the market vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Indonesian Ore Benchmarks and Negative Premiums The supplied report also highlights lower Indonesian nickel ore benchmarks and negative premiums. These developments suggest that parts of the supply chain continue to face pricing pressure and weak bargaining conditions. Negative premiums can reflect an imbalance between available material and immediate buying interest. Unless demand improves or production is reduced, these conditions may reinforce the broader oversupply narrative. Technical Outlook: Nickel Nickel is trading near the lower end of its recent range, with the reported price around $15,600 per tonne and a recent low near $15,510. This places the recent low in focus as a potential test of downside momentum. Bearish scenario: A sustained move below the reported $15,510 low could indicate that sellers retain control. Continued inventory pressure, weakness in Chinese metals and a firm dollar would reinforce this scenario. Bullish scenario: A recovery above the recent trading area could indicate stabilising sentiment, particularly if supported by improved Chinese stainless steel prices, a weaker dollar or concrete evidence of Indonesian supply restrictions. Neutral scenario: If nickel holds above its recent low but struggles to recover decisively, prices could consolidate while traders await clearer signals on demand, inventories and Indonesian policy. The supplied data does not establish confirmed support and resistance levels beyond the reported recent low. Further technical levels should be verified against a current nickel price chart. Nickel Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term nickel outlook remains cautious to bearish, with oversupply and dollar strength continuing to dominate the fundamental picture. The market's proximity to its recent low increases the importance of monitoring whether selling pressure accelerates or buyers begin to defend the current range. Three developments are likely to shape the next move: Inventory and supply conditions: Persistently elevated LME stocks would reinforce the bearish outlook, while a sustained decline could indicate that the market is moving towards better balance. US dollar and Federal Reserve expectations: Further dollar strength could weigh on nickel, while softer US data may provide some relief. Indonesian policy and Chinese demand: Concrete restrictions on future smelting capacity, combined with firmer Chinese stainless steel prices, could improve sentiment. Policy discussion without actual supply changes may have a more limited effect. Over the coming week, a break below the recent low would strengthen the case for continued weakness. If prices hold that area and the dollar eases, a corrective recovery becomes possible. A more durable bullish outlook would require evidence that the global surplus is narrowing rather than simply a temporary improvement in market sentiment. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Nickel remains caught between a structural supply problem and the possibility of future production controls. Elevated LME inventories and weakness in Chinese metals suggest that the market has not yet established the conditions needed for a sustained recovery. Dollar strength adds another obstacle by limiting support for dollar-denominated commodities. Indonesia's potential restrictions on new smelters are worth monitoring, but their influence will depend on implementation and the extent to which they alter future supply growth. Until those details become clearer, the market is likely to remain focused on inventories, Chinese demand and the US dollar. The immediate bias remains downside-risk dominant, particularly if nickel fails to hold its recent low. A stronger recovery would require more convincing evidence of improving demand or a material change in the global supply outlook. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. For businesses exposed to nickel prices, the combination of commodity-price volatility and US dollar movements can affect purchasing costs, sales revenue and margins. Importers and manufacturers should monitor both the underlying nickel price and their relevant currency exposure, while considering the timing of planned purchases and payments. A weaker dollar could offer some relief to dollar-priced commodities, but it would not necessarily resolve the effects of persistent oversupply. Supply developments, demand conditions and exchange-rate movements should therefore be assessed together. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about our services. Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity or financial instrument. Commodity prices can be volatile and may be affected by supply disruptions, inventory changes, economic conditions, monetary policy and geopolitical developments. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional and may not materialise. Always conduct independent research and assess your individual circumstances before making financial decisions.

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Energies

October 13, 2026

WTI Price Forecast: Trades with modest losses below $92.00; bullish bias persists

WTI struggles to capitalize on a three-day uptrend, though the downside seems limited. The geopolitical risk premium remains in play, limiting the downside for the black liquid. The bullish technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak to a two-week high, touched the previous day. The black liquid currently trades around the $91.75 region, down over 0.70% for the day, though the downside seems cushioned amid escalating Middle East conflicts. The Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen escalated its campaign against Saudi Arabia and fired more missiles on Monday. This follows deadly strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport over the weekend, which drew a Saudi vow of retaliation. Moreover, US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of joining strikes on the Houthi group and resuming attacks on Iran. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of violating an "energy ceasefire" announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should act as a tailwind for crude oil prices, warranting caution for bearish traders before confirming that the recent bounce from an over one-month low has run out of steam. From a technical perspective, oil prices hold comfortably above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $82.75, retaining a constructive bullish bias despite the latest pullback. Moreover, the black liquid sits just over the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $91.27, suggesting an initial demand zone around the current area amid mixed momentum indicators on the daily chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly below zero and hints at fading upside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 reinforces a neutral-to-positive tone, indicating that bullish pressure persists but is no longer overstretched. Hence, weakness below the 38.2% Fibo. is needed to back the case for a further depreciating move. This is followed by deeper Fibonacci floors at $87.85 and $84.43, with the 78.6% level at $79.57 and the prior cycle low at $73.37 marking more distant structural demand. On the topside, a break above the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $95.49 would reopen the path toward the cycle high area near $102.33, which is likely to cap gains unless momentum meaningfully improves. WTI daily chart

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October 13, 2026

Live Cattle Price Forecast: Firm Feeder Demand Offsets Mixed Futures Trading

Contributor: Currency HedgerMarket Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets US live cattle and feeder cattle futures traded unevenly in the latest session, with most nearby contracts moving lower despite firm prices at feeder auctions and continued support from the physical cattle market. October live cattle settled at $224.750 per hundredweight, while December fell to $226.600. February 2027 live cattle edged higher to $229.575. Feeder cattle futures also weakened, with the November 2026 contract falling to $341.100 and January 2027 settling at $335.750. However, the CME Feeder Cattle Index increased to $338.62, and Oklahoma City auction prices were generally steady to higher across feeder cattle and calves. The market is balancing supportive cash prices and firm auction demand against mixed wholesale beef values and the prospect of changing slaughter volumes. The next direction will depend on cash-market negotiations, beef demand, feed costs and whether physical market strength can translate into renewed futures buying. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest supplied dataOctober 2026 live cattle$224.750, down $0.225December 2026 live cattle$226.600, down $0.450February 2027 live cattle$229.575, up $0.100October 2026 feeder cattle$343.475, down $0.375November 2026 feeder cattle$341.100, down $0.850January 2027 feeder cattle$335.750, down $0.600CME Feeder Cattle Index$338.62Choice boxed beef$375.56, up $2.21Select boxed beef$354.77, down $0.17Monday federally inspected slaughter estimate106,000 headNear-term market biasMixed, with physical-market support Prices and changes are based on the supplied report. Cattle and beef prices are generally quoted per hundredweight unless otherwise stated. 1. Cash Cattle Trade Remains the Key Near-Term Catalyst Cash cattle negotiations have yet to develop in the latest trading period, leaving the previous week’s transactions as the main reference point for market participants. Reported northern trade was around $222–$223 per hundredweight for live cattle and $345 for dressed cattle, while some southern transactions were reported near $226 live. These levels provide an important benchmark for assessing whether packers will need to offer more attractive prices to secure supplies. If cash bids remain firm or move higher, futures could receive support as traders reassess the value of available cattle relative to forward contracts. However, the outcome will depend on the balance between packer demand and available market-ready animals. If negotiations begin at lower levels or trade volume remains limited, futures could remain under pressure despite the recent strength in some physical-market indicators. The next round of cash trade is therefore likely to be a major influence on near-term direction, particularly for the nearby live cattle contracts. 2. Feeder Auction Strength Offers Support Feeder cattle futures moved lower, but the physical feeder market presented a firmer picture. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rose by $1.55 to $338.62, while the Oklahoma City auction reported higher prices across several categories. Feeder steers were generally steady to $3 higher, with lighter steers gaining $5–$10. Heifers advanced $2–$7, while calves were reported $10–$20 higher. These gains suggest buyers remain willing to compete for suitable animals entering the feeding system. Availability, weight, quality and local demand can all influence auction prices, so the increases do not necessarily indicate uniform strength across every region or cattle category. For feeder futures, continued strength in auction prices and the CME index would provide a supportive reference point. However, the cost of feed and the expected profitability of finishing cattle remain important constraints. If feed costs rise or projected margins narrow, feedlot buyers may become more cautious even when current auction prices are firm. 3. Boxed Beef Prices Show Mixed Demand Signals Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the latest report. Choice boxed beef increased by $2.21 to $375.56, while Select declined by $0.17 to $354.77. The increase in Choice beef suggests relative strength in that category, while the slight decline in Select points to a less uniform wholesale market. The difference between the two values can reflect changing demand for quality grades, product mix and purchasing behaviour across the supply chain. Stronger boxed beef prices can support cattle values by improving the revenue available to processors, provided that higher wholesale prices can be maintained and translated into margins. If beef prices strengthen while cash cattle values remain firm, packers may face greater competition for available supplies. Conversely, a reversal in wholesale prices or a slowdown in consumer demand could limit the willingness of processors to bid aggressively for cattle. The next few sessions will therefore require close attention to whether Choice beef maintains its gains and whether Select prices begin to recover. 4. Slaughter Volumes Remain Important for Supply Balance USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 106,000 head for Monday. This was 4,000 head above the previous Monday but 2,419 head below the same week a year earlier. The figures indicate a modest increase from the previous week’s comparable session, while remaining below the year-earlier level. Slaughter numbers are an important indicator of the pace at which cattle are moving through processing plants and how readily beef supplies are being replenished. Lower slaughter relative to last year can provide support to cattle prices if it reflects limited animal availability. However, a single daily estimate does not establish a lasting trend. Weekly slaughter totals, carcass weights, processor operating schedules and beef demand will provide a clearer picture of the broader supply balance. If slaughter remains below year-earlier levels while wholesale beef prices hold firm, the market could find additional support. A sustained increase in processing volumes, particularly if beef demand softens, could place more pressure on wholesale prices and cattle margins. 5. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle May Continue to Diverge Live cattle and feeder cattle are linked, but their price drivers differ. Live cattle futures respond closely to cash-market trade, packer demand, wholesale beef values and the availability of finished animals. Feeder cattle prices are also affected by feedlot demand, feed costs and the expected return from finishing animals for slaughter. This distinction helps explain why physical feeder auction prices can rise even when feeder futures decline. Auction results reflect immediate local supply and demand, while futures also incorporate expectations about future feed costs, finished cattle prices and feedlot profitability. If live cattle cash prices strengthen and beef values remain supported, feeder demand may benefit as feedlots anticipate better returns. If finished cattle prices weaken or feed costs increase, feeder cattle could come under pressure even while current auction prices remain relatively firm. Traders should therefore assess the relationship between live cattle, feeder cattle and feed costs rather than relying on the direction of a single contract. Technical Outlook: Cattle Futures The latest session shows modest weakness across most nearby live cattle and feeder cattle contracts, although February live cattle edged higher and physical feeder prices remained firm. The supplied data do not establish verified chart-based support and resistance levels. The technical outlook should therefore focus on whether futures can stabilise, how the market responds to the next cash cattle trades, and whether price direction becomes more consistent across nearby and deferred contracts. Bullish scenario Cattle futures could recover if cash negotiations confirm firm live prices, Choice boxed beef maintains its advance and feeder auction values continue to strengthen. Slaughter remaining below year-earlier levels could reinforce concerns about available supplies and provide additional support. Bearish scenario Prices could weaken further if cash cattle trade develops at lower levels, wholesale beef prices retreat or feedlot margins deteriorate. A sustained increase in slaughter volumes combined with weaker beef demand could also pressure live cattle values. Neutral scenario Futures may remain range-bound while traders wait for fresh cash-market evidence. Under this scenario, live cattle could take direction from packer bids and boxed beef values, while feeder cattle respond to auction prices, feed costs and feedlot demand. Live Cattle Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is mixed, with a supportive underlying tone in the physical feeder market. Firm feeder auction prices, a higher CME Feeder Cattle Index and the latest increase in Choice boxed beef provide reasons for cautious optimism. The most important immediate catalyst is the next round of cash cattle negotiations. If live prices hold near or above the previous week’s reported levels, nearby futures may find support. Stronger cash trade would also help determine whether the recent futures weakness reflects temporary profit-taking or a broader shift in expectations. Wholesale beef prices will remain equally important. Continued gains in Choice beef could support packer demand, but a decline in wholesale values could put pressure on processor margins and reduce the incentive to bid aggressively for cattle. For feeder cattle, the strength of auction prices is encouraging, although feed costs and expected finishing margins remain critical. The market will need evidence that firm physical demand can persist beyond individual auction sessions. Over the coming sessions, cattle futures are likely to remain sensitive to cash trade, boxed beef values and slaughter data. A sustained recovery would be more convincing if live cattle and feeder cattle futures strengthen alongside the physical market rather than moving independently of it. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The cattle market is showing a divergence between futures performance and some of the latest physical indicators. Nearby contracts have softened, but feeder auction prices are firm, the CME Feeder Cattle Index has advanced and Choice boxed beef has strengthened. This combination suggests that demand remains supportive in parts of the supply chain, although it is not yet enough to generate a broad-based futures rally. Cash cattle negotiations should provide the clearest near-term signal, while boxed beef prices will help establish whether packer demand can sustain current cattle values. The outlook is cautiously constructive if cash prices remain firm and beef values hold their gains. However, weaker wholesale demand, deteriorating feedlot margins or lower cash bids could extend the recent pressure on futures. For now, confirmation from the physical market is more important than assuming that one session’s price movements establish a new trend. Currency Hedger View Cattle markets are influenced by feed costs, consumer demand, processing margins and broader agricultural market conditions. For businesses operating across borders, foreign exchange movements can also affect the cost of imported feed ingredients, equipment and other inputs, as well as the value of international sales. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Livestock futures involve substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Market prices, USDA estimates and auction reports may be revised, and actual outcomes may differ materially from expectations.

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October 13, 2026

Coffee Price Forecast: Colombian Output Falls as Brazil and Vietnam Supply Outlooks Weigh

Contributor: Currency HedgerMarket Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Coffee futures advanced in the latest session as lower production and exports from Colombia added support to arabica prices, while concerns over a possible El Niño weather pattern raised uncertainty about Brazil’s next crop. December New York arabica coffee rose 1.27%, while November London robusta gained 0.23%. The market faces competing supply signals. Colombia’s coffee production and exports declined in the 2025/26 season, and historically low ICE arabica inventories provide an additional source of support. However, higher Brazilian exports, improved growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, and forecasts for record global coffee production could limit the potential for a sustained rally. The outlook for the coming sessions will depend on whether supply disruptions outweigh expectations of a larger global crop. Arabica and robusta may also diverge, as their production patterns and exchange inventory trends remain different. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest supplied dataDecember New York arabica coffee+1.27%November London robusta coffee+0.23%Colombia 2025/26 coffee production12.65 million bags, down 15%Colombia 2025/26 coffee exports11.78 million bags, down 12%Brazil September coffee exports236,000 tonnes, up over 20%ICO 2025/26 global production forecast183.6 million bagsICO 2025/26 global surplus estimate3 million bagsUSDA 2026/27 global production forecast189.7 million bagsICE arabica inventoriesRecovered from a 27-year lowICE robusta inventoriesRecently eased from a September highNear-term market biasMixed, with arabica supported by supply risks Figures are based on the supplied market report. Production estimates differ by organisation and reporting period. 1. Colombia’s Lower Output Supports Arabica Prices Colombia’s coffee sector is providing an important source of support for arabica futures. The country’s Coffee Federation reported that production fell 15% year on year to 12.65 million bags in the 2025/26 season, while exports declined 12% to 11.78 million bags. Lower production and export availability can tighten the supply of Colombian coffee, particularly when buyers are seeking consistent quality and reliable deliveries. Colombia is one of the world’s leading arabica producers, so a sustained decline can influence market sentiment even when production elsewhere remains strong. The latest figures also highlight the importance of monitoring export flows alongside headline crop estimates. If Colombian shipments remain subdued, buyers may need to source more coffee from other origins, potentially supporting prices for competing arabica supplies. However, Colombia’s weaker output must be considered alongside Brazil’s much larger production base. Higher Brazilian exports and expectations for an improved crop could offset some of the supply pressure from Colombia. For the coming sessions, further evidence of reduced Colombian availability would support arabica, while a recovery in shipments or stronger Brazilian supply could limit gains. 2. Brazil’s Larger Crop Outlook Creates Downside Risk Brazil remains the central variable in the global coffee outlook. The country is the largest coffee producer, and changes in its harvest estimates can have a substantial effect on international prices. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reportedly recorded a year-on-year increase of more than 20% in September coffee exports, reaching 236,000 tonnes. Strong shipments suggest that export availability has improved, creating a counterweight to concerns over lower production in Colombia. Crop forecasts also point towards greater Brazilian supply. Conab raised its 2026 production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million bags. Its outlook anticipates a substantial recovery in arabica production, while robusta output is expected to decline. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service has also projected a record Brazilian crop for 2026/27, while the USDA’s broader global forecast points to increased production as growing conditions improve. These forecasts create a bearish risk for coffee prices if the expected crop recovery materialises. Larger production could rebuild inventories, improve export availability and reduce the urgency among buyers to secure supplies. Nevertheless, forecast production is not the same as confirmed output. Weather during flowering, fruit development and harvesting can alter final yields. Any sustained deterioration in growing conditions would require the market to reassess the current expectation of abundant Brazilian supplies. 3. El Niño Raises Uncertainty for the Next Brazilian Crop The possibility of a strong El Niño is adding uncertainty to Brazil’s production outlook. Coffee trader assessments have raised concerns that the weather pattern could disrupt the timing of rainfall during the flowering period, potentially affecting the 2026/27 crop. The impact is not straightforward. Insufficient rainfall at critical stages can impair flowering and reduce yields, while well-timed rainfall can support tree development and improve the eventual harvest. The timing, regional distribution and intensity of precipitation are therefore more important than the broad weather pattern alone. Recent rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s principal arabica-growing region, has been reported around its historical average. That provides a more constructive signal for crop development than a severe drought scenario would, although it does not guarantee a strong harvest. The market is likely to remain sensitive to forecasts as the crop develops. If rainfall becomes irregular or adverse weather affects flowering and fruit formation, coffee could regain a weather premium. If conditions remain favourable, expectations of a larger Brazilian crop may continue to weigh on prices. 4. Vietnam’s Robust a Supply Outlook Limits Price Strength Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is a key influence on London robusta futures. The supplied figures indicate that Vietnamese coffee exports increased 53% year on year in September to 124,000 tonnes, while exports for January to September rose 16.2% to 1.45 million tonnes. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports also increased, and the country’s 2025/26 production is projected to rise to a four-year high. Improved rainfall and soil moisture in the Central Highlands could support cherry development and reinforce expectations of greater availability. This creates a more challenging backdrop for robusta than for arabica. Strong export flows and improving crop prospects could reduce the need for buyers to compete aggressively for supplies, particularly if inventories remain comfortable. The main risk to this outlook is a deterioration in weather conditions or a disruption to exports. If the next crop underperforms, or if shipments slow materially, robusta prices could recover. For now, the supply outlook from Vietnam is a significant constraint on upside potential, even as broader coffee markets receive support from concerns about weather and production elsewhere. 5. Global Coffee Production Forecasts Point to a Potential Surplus The International Coffee Organization has projected 2025/26 global coffee production at a record 183.6 million bags, an increase of 4.4% year on year. With consumption forecast to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, the organisation estimates a surplus of approximately three million bags. That would represent a shift from the deficits seen in recent years and could ease pressure on the global supply chain if the forecasts are confirmed. The USDA’s outlook is also bearish for prices. It expects global coffee production to increase to a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, with higher arabica production more than offsetting the projected small decline in robusta output. World ending stocks are forecast to rise to 26.3 million bags. These projections suggest that the broader supply balance could become more comfortable. However, forecasts from different organisations use different methodologies and assumptions, so their figures should not be combined as if they were a single estimate. The market will need to see whether the expected production increase translates into actual exports and higher available stocks. A larger crop accompanied by stronger consumption could have a more limited price impact than a production increase that substantially exceeds demand. 6. Arabica and Robusta Inventories Signal Different Market Conditions Exchange inventories remain an important distinction between the two coffee markets. ICE arabica stocks fell to a reported 27-year low of 217,646 bags in September before recovering to 260,654 bags later in the month. Although the recovery has eased some immediate concerns, the inventory level remains an important indicator to monitor. Low arabica stocks can make the market more sensitive to unexpected supply disruptions, particularly if Colombia’s lower output persists or the next Brazilian crop encounters problems. Robusta inventories have followed a different pattern. ICE robusta stocks reached a reported 10.5-month high in September before declining to a recent multi-week low. The decline offers some support, but it does not by itself establish a lasting tightening in robusta availability. If arabica inventories begin falling again while robusta stocks remain comparatively comfortable, the two contracts could develop different price trends. Conversely, sustained inventory rebuilding across both markets would strengthen the argument that global supply is becoming more abundant. Technical Outlook: Coffee Futures The latest session shows modest gains in both arabica and robusta, but the fundamental outlook remains divided. Arabica has additional support from lower Colombian output and relatively tight exchange inventories, while robusta faces greater pressure from Vietnamese export growth and improving supply prospects. The supplied data do not establish verified current support and resistance levels. The technical outlook should therefore focus on whether the latest gains attract further buying and whether prices can hold those advances as new production and export data emerge. Bullish scenario Coffee prices could extend their recovery if Colombia’s production and exports remain weak, weather forecasts become less favourable for Brazil, or inventory data show renewed tightening. A deterioration in flowering or crop development would be particularly supportive if it undermines expectations of record global output. Bearish scenario Prices could retreat if Brazilian production forecasts continue to rise, Vietnamese exports remain strong and global output moves towards the projected record. A sustained recovery in exchange inventories would add to the downside risk, particularly if demand remains subdued. Neutral scenario Coffee may consolidate as traders balance lower Colombian availability against stronger Brazilian and Vietnamese supply. Arabica could outperform robusta if inventory constraints remain more pronounced in the arabica market, while robusta remains capped by the larger Vietnamese crop outlook. Coffee Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is mixed, with arabica relatively better supported by Colombian supply concerns and low historical inventory levels, while robusta faces greater pressure from Vietnamese production and export growth. For arabica, the immediate focus will be on Colombia’s export performance, Brazilian rainfall and any changes to the next crop estimate. Further evidence of reduced availability could sustain buying interest, particularly if exchange inventories begin to decline again. For robusta, traders will be watching whether Vietnam’s improved growing conditions translate into a larger harvest and continued export growth. If supply increases as expected, rallies may struggle to develop into a sustained upward trend. The broader market will also respond to revisions in global production and consumption forecasts. Record output and a projected surplus would normally weigh on prices, but adverse weather or logistical disruptions could quickly alter that balance. Over the coming sessions, coffee prices are likely to remain sensitive to weather updates, export data and inventory movements. A durable rally would require clearer evidence that supply risks are outweighing the prospect of a larger global crop. Until then, price direction may vary between arabica and robusta. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Coffee is caught between immediate supply concerns and a potentially more comfortable global balance. Colombia’s lower production and exports provide a supportive signal for arabica, while the possibility of adverse weather in Brazil introduces uncertainty into the next crop cycle. However, stronger Brazilian exports, improving Vietnamese growing conditions and forecasts for record global production argue against assuming that the recent gains will develop into a sustained rally. The inventory picture also differs between arabica and robusta, making it important to assess each market separately. The key question for the coming sessions is whether supply risks begin to undermine expectations of abundant production. Until crop forecasts, export flows and inventory trends provide clearer confirmation, coffee is likely to remain volatile, with arabica potentially better supported than robusta. Currency Hedger View Coffee prices are influenced by weather, crop conditions, global inventories, export demand and currency movements. For roasters, importers, exporters and other businesses trading internationally, exchange-rate changes can affect the local-currency cost of coffee purchases and the value of export revenues. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Coffee futures can be volatile and involve substantial risk. Production forecasts, inventory figures and market estimates may be revised, and actual outcomes may differ materially from expectations.

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October 13, 2026

Cocoa Price Forecast: West African Harvest Risks Support Prices as Inventories Rise

Contributor: Currency HedgerMarket Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Cocoa futures are showing mixed but slightly positive price action as concerns over heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast compete with evidence of rising inventories and pressure on global chocolate demand. December New York cocoa advanced 0.19%, while December London cocoa gained 0.78% in the latest session. Heavy rain across the Ivory Coast is reportedly restricting farmers’ access to cocoa plantations, damaging transport infrastructure and slowing deliveries as the new harvest begins. These disruptions are raising concerns about the timing and quality of incoming supplies. However, a stronger US dollar and increasing ICE warehouse inventories continue to limit the market’s recovery. The wider outlook is becoming increasingly dependent on the condition of the 2026/27 West African crop. Early assessments point to weaker pod development in the Ivory Coast and lower production expectations in Ghana, while a potential strong El Niño could create further weather risks. Against this, recent production growth, substantial inventories and uneven processing demand suggest that any sustained rally will require clearer evidence of a tightening supply balance. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest supplied dataDecember New York cocoa+0.19%December London cocoa+0.78%ICE cocoa inventories3.56 million bagsIvory Coast shipments2.18 million tonnesIvory Coast shipment growth+19.8% year on yearIvory Coast 2026/27 crop estimateAround 1.8 million tonnesGhana 2026/27 crop estimateLower than the previous seasonEuropean Q2 grindings-4.6% year on yearNorth American Q2 grindings+7.7% year on yearAsian Q2 grindings+25% year on yearNear-term market biasNeutral to cautiously bullish on crop risks Figures reflect the supplied source material. Crop projections differ between organisations, and inventory, shipment and production figures may cover different reporting periods. 1. Heavy Rainfall Threatens Harvest Progress in the Ivory Coast The Ivory Coast remains the most important factor in the near-term cocoa outlook. Heavy rainfall has reportedly damaged roads and bridges, restricted access to plantations and slowed the movement of cocoa beans towards export ports. These disruptions are arriving as the main harvest begins, creating uncertainty over how quickly new supplies will reach the market. Even if the eventual crop remains substantial, delays in harvesting and transportation can tighten near-term availability and support futures prices. Rainfall can also affect bean quality. Prolonged cloudy and wet conditions reduce sunshine and can encourage black pod disease, potentially lowering the proportion of marketable cocoa beans. If these problems spread across major growing areas, the impact could extend beyond delivery delays to affect usable production. However, the market needs to distinguish logistical disruption from a genuine reduction in the size of the crop. If transport conditions improve and harvesting accelerates, some of the current supply premium could fade. More persistent rainfall, disease and poor pod development would present a more durable bullish signal. 2. Rising ICE Inventories Limit the Recovery A significant counterweight to the weather-driven rally is the increase in exchange-monitored cocoa inventories. ICE cocoa stocks reportedly reached approximately 3.56 million bags, their highest level in around two and a quarter years. Rising inventories can indicate that available supplies are more comfortable than the market previously anticipated. They can also reduce the urgency among buyers to secure additional volumes, particularly when demand from chocolate manufacturers is under pressure. The inventory trend therefore presents a challenge for cocoa bulls. Even if the new West African crop encounters difficulties, prices may struggle to sustain a strong advance while exchange stocks continue to accumulate. The direction of inventories over the coming weeks will be important. A sustained decline alongside weaker harvest estimates would strengthen the case for tightening availability. Further stock increases would suggest that current supply is sufficient to offset at least some of the emerging crop risks. 3. Strong Previous Output Complicates the Supply Outlook Recent production and shipment data highlight why the market remains divided. Cumulative Ivory Coast shipments were reported at 2.18 million tonnes for the cited marketing-year period, an increase of 19.8% year on year. The country’s cocoa regulator also reported that output harvested over the June 2025–June 2026 period rose by approximately 30% to 2.06 million tonnes. These figures point to a strong previous production cycle and help explain why cocoa has faced pressure despite concerns about the next harvest. The current outlook, however, may be different. Early assessments of the Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop indicate below-average cherelle formation, poor pod development and an estimated harvest of around 1.8 million tonnes, compared with approximately 2.2 million tonnes in the previous season. This would represent a substantial reduction if confirmed. Nevertheless, early-season crop assessments are not final production results. Weather conditions can change, and estimates will need to be tested against subsequent field surveys, harvesting progress and actual arrivals. For prices, the critical question is whether the expected decline in the next crop will be large enough to offset the stronger supply carried over from the previous season. 4. Ghana’s Production Risks Add to West African Uncertainty Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, faces its own production challenges. The supplied forecasts point to a lower 2026/27 crop, with estimates reflecting the effects of swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa trees and potentially adverse weather. One forecast places Ghanaian production at approximately 650,000 tonnes, down from 750,000 tonnes in the previous season. Ghana’s cocoa regulator has also indicated a more cautious range of 450,000–550,000 tonnes, reflecting the possibility of more severe constraints. These estimates are not identical and should not be treated as a confirmed outcome. Their common implication, however, is that Ghana’s next crop may be materially smaller than the previous one. The impact on global prices will depend on how much production is ultimately lost and whether other producing countries can compensate. If both Ghana and the Ivory Coast experience significant declines at the same time, the combined effect could materially tighten global supply. Conversely, if final production exceeds the more pessimistic forecasts, cocoa prices could face renewed pressure, particularly while inventories remain elevated. 5. El Niño Could Create a Medium-Term Supply Risk The possibility of a strong El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty. This weather pattern can alter temperature and rainfall across West Africa, where cocoa trees are sensitive to changes in soil moisture, heat and growing conditions. Warmer and drier conditions can place cocoa trees under stress, weaken pod development and reduce yields. If the expected weather pattern persists through critical stages of the growing cycle, it could reinforce existing concerns about the 2026/27 harvest. The timing and severity of the effects remain uncertain. El Niño does not guarantee a production decline, and its impact varies by location and season. Traders should therefore look for confirmation in rainfall data, soil conditions, disease reports and crop assessments rather than treating the weather forecast alone as proof of a shortage. If conditions deteriorate and production estimates are cut further, the market could begin pricing in a tighter global balance. If weather impacts prove less severe than expected, the existing inventory overhang could regain influence. 6. Global Cocoa Balance Forecasts Point to a Narrower Surplus Supply projections from market analysts suggest that the global cocoa balance could become tighter in 2026/27. StoneX has reduced its forecast global surplus for the season to approximately 25,000 tonnes, while Transgraph Consulting has projected a surplus of around 80,000 tonnes, down from an estimated 415,000 tonnes in 2025/26. Although both forecasts still indicate a surplus, the anticipated reduction is significant. A smaller surplus leaves the market more exposed to unexpected crop losses, particularly if weather problems affect the Ivory Coast and Ghana simultaneously. The distinction between a surplus and a deficit is important. A narrowing surplus can support prices, but it does not necessarily mean that the market is already experiencing a physical shortage. The effect on prices will depend on inventory availability, demand and whether actual production tracks the more cautious projections. For the coming sessions, further downward revisions to crop estimates could strengthen the bullish case. Stable or improving forecasts, combined with rising inventories, would make it harder for cocoa to establish a sustained recovery. 7. Cocoa Demand Remains Uneven Demand is another key variable. High cocoa costs have placed pressure on manufacturers, and reports of losses linked to cocoa positions at major processors suggest that passing higher input costs through to customers has not always been straightforward. Regional processing data offer a mixed picture: Europe: Q2 cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year on year to 316,366 tonnes, marking a weak second quarter. North America: Q2 grindings increased 7.7% year on year to 109,659 tonnes, outperforming expectations. Asia: Q2 grindings rose 25% year on year to 224,646 tonnes, also exceeding expectations. The regional differences suggest that demand cannot be described as uniformly weak or strong. European processing activity points to continued pressure, while North American and Asian figures provide some reassurance. If elevated prices continue to constrain chocolate manufacturers and consumers, demand destruction could offset part of the impact from lower production. Conversely, stronger processing data and improved buying interest would make a smaller crop more consequential for the global balance. Technical Outlook: Cocoa Futures The latest session’s gains suggest that weather concerns are providing support, but the relatively modest advance in New York cocoa indicates that the market remains constrained by opposing fundamentals. London cocoa’s stronger percentage gain shows a firmer session, although one trading session is insufficient to establish a sustained trend. The supplied data do not provide verified current chart levels for support and resistance. The technical outlook should therefore focus on price follow-through, the ability to retain recent gains and whether market momentum strengthens as new crop information emerges. Bullish scenario Cocoa could extend its recovery if heavy rainfall continues to disrupt harvesting and deliveries, early crop assessments deteriorate, or new estimates confirm a materially smaller West African harvest. Falling ICE inventories would provide additional confirmation that physical availability is tightening. Bearish scenario Prices could come under renewed pressure if transport and harvesting conditions improve, crop estimates recover or inventories continue to rise. Evidence of weak processing demand and further strength in the US dollar could also limit buying interest. Neutral scenario Cocoa may consolidate as the market balances harvest concerns against the availability of existing stocks. In this scenario, prices could remain volatile around changing weather forecasts and crop estimates without developing a decisive trend. Cocoa Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is neutral to cautiously bullish, with the main support coming from harvest disruption in the Ivory Coast and the possibility of lower production across West Africa in 2026/27. The immediate focus will be on whether heavy rainfall continues to restrict access to cocoa farms and delay deliveries. Further evidence of poor pod development, disease or reduced crop potential could encourage additional buying, especially if Ghana’s production outlook deteriorates at the same time. However, rising ICE inventories remain a significant obstacle to a stronger rally. The market will need to see evidence that weather-related disruption is translating into tighter physical availability, rather than merely delaying the movement of an otherwise substantial crop. Demand will also be important. Continued weakness in European grindings could limit the market’s upside, while stronger processing activity in North America and Asia would help offset concerns about consumption. Over the coming sessions, cocoa is likely to remain sensitive to weather updates, inventory changes and revisions to West African crop forecasts. A sustained bullish trend would require confirmation of lower production or tightening stocks. Without that confirmation, prices could remain volatile and vulnerable to renewed selling. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Cocoa is entering a period in which the outlook for the next West African crop is becoming increasingly important, but the market is not yet free of the supply overhang created by strong previous production and rising exchange inventories. Heavy rainfall, potential black pod disease and concerns over pod development provide a credible basis for renewed price strength. The risk of El Niño adds to the uncertainty, particularly if it brings unfavourable growing conditions during critical stages of the crop cycle. Yet a smaller projected harvest does not automatically guarantee a global deficit. Inventories, demand and the final size of the current crop will determine how much pressure the market ultimately faces. The key signal for the coming sessions will be whether deteriorating crop expectations are accompanied by falling inventories and firmer physical demand. Until then, cocoa’s outlook remains cautiously constructive, but further gains may be uneven rather than sustained. Currency Hedger View Cocoa prices are influenced by agricultural weather, global inventories, processing demand and currency movements. For businesses purchasing or selling cocoa internationally, changes in the US dollar and other currency pairs can affect the local-currency cost of raw materials and the value of export receipts. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Cocoa futures can be volatile and involve substantial risk. Forecasts, crop estimates and inventory figures are subject to revision, and actual market outcomes may differ materially from expectations.

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Markets

October 13, 2026

Sugar Price Forecast: Futures Rally as El Niño Risks Threaten Global Supplies

Contributor: Currency HedgerMarket Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Sugar futures rallied sharply in the latest session as concerns over a potentially powerful El Niño weather pattern added to existing supply-side risks. March New York raw sugar rose 2.96% to settle at 20.87 cents per pound, while December London white sugar advanced 3.35% to 562.00 per tonne, based on the supplied closing changes and prices. The rally reflects growing concern that adverse weather could disrupt sugar production across Brazil, India and Thailand, three of the world’s most important sugar-producing and exporting regions. Further rainfall in Brazil’s Center-South region could delay harvesting and cane crushing, while below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall adds uncertainty to the next production cycle. The outlook is becoming increasingly sensitive to weather developments, harvest progress and revisions to global supply estimates. Although forecasts for a 2026/27 deficit provide support, the market still faces uncertainty over the size of the potential shortfall and the extent to which existing inventories can absorb production losses. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest supplied dataNew York raw sugar, March contract+2.96%London white sugar, December contract+3.35%Main bullish driverEl Niño and weather-related production risksBrazilRainfall potentially delaying harvestingIndiaMonsoon rainfall 12.6% below normalThailandProduction forecast to decline significantly2025/26 global balanceForecast surplus of 1.1 million tonnes by ISO2026/27 global balanceForecast deficit of 200,000 tonnes by ISONear-term market biasCautiously bullish, with elevated volatility Price changes and market estimates are based on the supplied source material. Global balance forecasts differ materially between organisations and remain subject to revision. 1. El Niño Raises the Risk of Weather-Related Supply Disruption Weather expectations are becoming a central driver of sugar prices. Japan’s Meteorological Agency has reported unusually elevated tropical Pacific temperatures, while US climate forecasters have warned that the developing El Niño could become one of the strongest in decades. A strong El Niño can alter rainfall patterns and temperatures across major agricultural regions. For sugar, the implications depend on the location, timing and severity of those changes. Drought can reduce cane yields and sugar content, while excessive rainfall can disrupt harvesting, transport and processing. Brazil is particularly important because it is the world’s largest sugar producer. Forecasts for intensified rainfall in the Center-South region raise the possibility of further delays to harvesting and crushing. If these disruptions persist, the amount of sugar reaching the market could fall short of expectations. However, weather forecasts alone do not confirm a sustained production decline. The market will need to assess actual rainfall, field conditions, mill operations and updated crop estimates before pricing in a more severe global shortage. 2. Brazil’s Harvest Progress Remains a Key Price Driver Brazil’s sugar industry is a major influence on global availability, and recent production figures have highlighted the market’s sensitivity to weather disruptions. The supplied data indicate that Center-South sugar production fell 26.3% year on year in June to 3.903 million tonnes. That decline provides a reminder of how quickly adverse operating conditions can affect output. Continued rain could slow harvesting and reduce the pace at which mills process sugar cane, tightening near-term availability. Crude oil prices also matter because Brazilian mills can allocate more cane towards ethanol rather than sugar, depending on relative returns. If energy prices strengthen sufficiently, ethanol production may become more attractive and limit the amount of cane directed towards sugar. The balance between rainfall, milling activity and ethanol economics will therefore remain central to the next phase of the market. A recovery in crushing rates could ease some of the current supply concerns, while prolonged disruption would strengthen the case for further gains. 3. India and Thailand Add to the Supply Concerns India’s production outlook is another important consideration. The supplied figures show cumulative monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below normal by the end of September, the weakest reading in 11 years according to the cited report. Lower rainfall can affect cane development and future yields, although the eventual impact depends on regional conditions, irrigation, soil moisture and the timing of subsequent rainfall. India’s sugar availability is especially important because domestic consumption is substantial and export volumes can change depending on local supply. India’s decision to permit up to one million tonnes of raw sugar imports without taxes until October 31 also points to concern about domestic supply availability. As India is usually a significant exporter, a shift towards imports can affect the amount of sugar available to the international market. Thailand presents a further risk. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected that 2026/27 production could fall to around 10 million tonnes, a decline of 17% year on year. Other forecasts also anticipate a sizeable reduction. If production falls in both India and Thailand while Brazilian harvesting remains disrupted, global exporters could face a tighter supply outlook. Nevertheless, the scale of the impact will depend on actual crop results, domestic consumption and any changes to export policy. 4. Global Sugar Balance Forecasts Remain Divided The longer-term supply picture is supportive, but the estimates vary considerably. The International Sugar Organization has forecast a global surplus of 1.1 million tonnes for 2025/26, following a deficit in the previous season. For 2026/27, it projects production falling to approximately 180.1 million tonnes and a deficit of around 200,000 tonnes. Other organisations have issued different projections. StoneX has estimated a considerably larger deficit, while Covrig Analytics has also revised its outlook as expectations for production and consumption have changed. Czarnikow has highlighted the possibility of a more substantial deficit in 2027/28. These differences matter because sugar prices respond not only to whether the market is expected to move into deficit, but also to the size of that deficit relative to inventories and consumption. A small projected shortfall may have a limited effect if stock levels remain comfortable. A larger production shortfall, combined with falling inventories, would provide a stronger basis for a sustained rally. There is also a counterweight to the bullish narrative. The ISO expects a record crop and a surplus in 2025/26, while USDA estimates in the supplied material point to relatively high ending stocks for 2026/27. Differences in reporting periods and forecasting assumptions mean these estimates should not be treated as directly interchangeable. For traders, updated crop forecasts and inventory data will be important in determining whether the recent rally reflects a temporary weather premium or the beginning of a more persistent tightening in global supply. 5. Fund Positioning Could Amplify Price Swings Speculative positioning is another factor supporting the market. The supplied Commitment of Traders data show that funds increased their net-long New York sugar positions by 60,442 contracts in the week ended October 6, taking the net-long position to 212,559 contracts. A large net-long position indicates that speculative investors are positioned for higher prices. This can help sustain upward momentum when new bullish information emerges, particularly if weather forecasts deteriorate or production estimates are reduced. However, crowded positioning also creates a risk. If rainfall improves, harvest delays ease or forecasts shift back towards a global surplus, funds may reduce exposure. A wave of long liquidation could accelerate a correction even if the underlying supply-demand balance remains relatively tight. The market is therefore vulnerable to sharp moves in both directions as traders respond to weather updates and revisions to crop estimates. Technical Outlook: Sugar Futures The latest rally strengthens the near-term bullish tone in both New York raw sugar and London white sugar. However, the supplied data do not provide enough verified chart information to establish reliable current support and resistance levels. The next technical assessment should focus on whether prices can hold the gains from the latest session and build on the recent advance. Follow-through buying would suggest that the market is accepting the tighter-supply narrative. A failure to maintain the rally could indicate that speculative positioning and weather concerns have already been substantially priced in. Bullish scenario Sugar prices could extend their gains if rainfall continues to disrupt Brazilian harvesting, crushing activity remains weak and forecasts for India and Thailand are revised lower. Evidence of declining inventories or a larger 2026/27 deficit would reinforce this scenario. Bearish scenario Prices could retreat if Brazilian mills improve their operating pace, weather conditions become more favourable or production estimates recover. A reduction in speculative long positions could amplify the decline, particularly if updated balance estimates point to adequate global stocks. Neutral scenario Sugar may consolidate after the sharp rally while the market waits for clearer evidence of crop damage and harvest disruption. In this scenario, short-term price swings could remain pronounced without establishing a sustained directional trend. Sugar Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is cautiously bullish, with weather risk providing the principal source of support. The combination of potential Brazilian harvest delays, below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall and weaker Thai production expectations creates a credible risk that global supply will tighten during the next crop cycle. The immediate focus will be on rainfall across Brazil’s Center-South region and whether mill activity can recover. Further disruption could encourage additional buying, especially while speculative positioning remains supportive. Attention will also turn to updated production estimates and evidence of how much sugar will be available for export from India and Thailand. If these developments confirm a widening global deficit, the rally could gain further momentum. However, the market is not without downside risk. Forecasts for the global sugar balance remain divided, existing stock estimates offer some cushion, and heavily net-long fund positioning could leave prices exposed to profit-taking. Over the coming sessions, sugar is likely to remain sensitive to weather forecasts, harvest progress and changes in speculative exposure. A sustained advance will require confirmation that production risks are translating into tighter physical availability rather than relying on weather expectations alone. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Sugar is increasingly being priced as a weather-sensitive commodity, with the potential for El Niño to disrupt production across several major growing regions. Brazil remains the key near-term variable because rainfall can affect both the timing of harvesting and the volume of cane processed by mills. The broader outlook is constructive for prices if the expected production declines in India and Thailand materialise and Brazil experiences further disruption. Yet the size of the projected global deficit remains uncertain, and a forecast shortfall should not be confused with a confirmed physical shortage. The next phase of the rally will depend on whether weather risks translate into measurable reductions in output and export availability. Until that evidence becomes clearer, the balance of risks favours a cautiously bullish but volatile market rather than an uninterrupted upward trend. Currency Hedger View Sugar is influenced by more than agricultural conditions. Crude oil prices can affect the economics of ethanol production in Brazil, while currency movements can alter producer revenues and export competitiveness. Weather disruptions, trade policy and global demand also shape the price outlook. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding?utm_source=chatgpt.com Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Commodity futures involve substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Forecasts and market estimates are subject to change, and actual outcomes may differ materially from expectations.

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Markets

October 13, 2026

Cotton Price Forecast: Futures Edge Higher as Crude Oil and the US Dollar Strengthen

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Cotton futures are showing modest gains, with contracts advancing between 6 and 22 points as the market attempts to build upward momentum. December 2026 cotton settled at 80.60 cents per pound, while March 2027 futures rose to 83.81 cents and May 2027 contracts reached 85.48 cents. The advance comes alongside higher crude oil prices and a firmer US dollar, creating competing influences for the cotton market. Rising energy prices can increase production and transportation costs, while a stronger dollar may make US cotton more expensive for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, trading activity, certified exchange stocks and international price benchmarks offer further clues about the balance between supply and demand. The near-term outlook will depend on whether the latest gains attract sustained buying or encounter renewed selling pressure as currency and energy-market movements influence export competitiveness and textile demand. Cotton Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest updateDecember 2026 cotton80.60 cents/lb, up 6 pointsMarch 2027 cotton83.81 cents/lb, up 22 pointsMay 2027 cotton85.48 cents/lb, up 18 pointsThe Seam sales2,539 balesThe Seam average price79.53 cents/lbCotlook A Index90.65 cents/lb, unchangedICE certified stocks17,756 bales, unchangedAdjusted World Price63.81 cents/lb, down 135 pointsMarket outlookCautious, with modest positive momentum Fundamental Drivers: Cotton Balances Energy Costs and Export Demand Futures advance, but the recovery needs confirmation Cotton contracts closed higher, with the March 2027 contract recording the strongest gain among the three listed maturities. The advance suggests some buying interest across the futures curve, although the available figures do not establish whether the move reflects a broader change in market sentiment or a short-term rebound. The difference between December 2026 futures at 80.60 cents and May 2027 futures at 85.48 cents also highlights the higher prices attached to later delivery. This structure can reflect expectations around future supply, demand, storage and seasonal conditions, but it does not by itself confirm a bullish outlook. For the coming sessions, the key question is whether prices can extend their gains with stronger participation or whether the latest advance attracts selling from traders looking to lock in profits. Higher crude oil prices provide mixed signals Crude oil gained $1.31 per barrel during the session, adding an important external variable for cotton traders. Higher energy prices can increase fuel, fertiliser, processing and transportation costs across the agricultural supply chain. They may also affect synthetic fibre production, potentially influencing the relative economics of cotton and man-made alternatives. However, the relationship is not direct. If rising energy costs contribute to broader inflation or weaken consumer spending, textile demand could come under pressure. The effect on cotton will depend on whether production-cost pressures or changes in fibre demand dominate. Continued strength in crude oil could therefore offer some indirect support to cotton while also introducing risks to the wider demand outlook. A stronger US dollar may limit export competitiveness The US dollar index rose by 0.343 points during the session, potentially creating a headwind for US cotton's competitiveness in international markets. A stronger dollar increases the cost of dollar-priced commodities for buyers using other currencies, all else being equal. If the dollar continues to appreciate, overseas textile mills may become more cautious about purchasing US cotton, particularly if demand is already subdued. Conversely, a weaker dollar could improve the relative attractiveness of US supplies and help support export demand. Currency movements should therefore remain part of the broader assessment of cotton's outlook rather than being treated as an independent price signal. Trading activity and certified stocks offer mixed signals The Seam reported sales of 2,539 bales at an average price of 79.53 cents per pound. ICE-certified cotton stocks remained unchanged at 17,756 bales, while the Cotlook A Index held steady at 90.65 cents per pound. These figures provide useful reference points, but they measure different parts of the market. The Seam transaction data reflect reported sales on that platform, ICE-certified stocks represent cotton meeting the exchange's certification requirements, and the Cotlook A Index tracks an international physical-market benchmark. The unchanged certified-stock level does not, on its own, establish that the overall cotton market is tight. Traders will need broader information on global production, mill consumption, export sales and inventories to assess whether available supply is becoming more restrictive. The lower Adjusted World Price adds a demand consideration The Adjusted World Price (AWP) declined by 135 points to 63.81 cents per pound. The AWP is a US cotton pricing benchmark used in the domestic support framework, rather than a direct substitute for ICE futures or the Cotlook A Index. Its decline provides another reference for evaluating the relationship between US cotton prices and international market conditions. However, the move should be considered alongside export demand, futures prices and broader supply estimates before drawing conclusions about the direction of the market. Technical Outlook: Cotton Tests the Next Stage of Its Recovery The latest close places December 2026 cotton at 80.60 cents per pound, March 2027 at 83.81 cents and May 2027 at 85.48 cents. The available data do not provide verified chart-based support or resistance levels. Traders should check recent swing highs and lows, moving averages and momentum indicators before assigning precise technical targets. Bullish scenario If buying interest continues and futures extend their gains, the latest advance could develop into a broader recovery. Supportive agricultural demand, improved export competitiveness following a weaker dollar, or higher input costs could help reinforce this scenario. Sustained gains across several sessions would provide stronger evidence of improving momentum than a single positive close. Bearish scenario If the US dollar continues strengthening and textile demand remains uncertain, cotton futures could struggle to extend the rebound. A reversal in the latest gains would suggest that buyers are unwilling to commit at current levels. Weak export demand or a broader deterioration in agricultural commodity sentiment could add to downward pressure. Neutral scenario Cotton may consolidate around recent closing levels as traders assess the competing effects of energy prices, currency movements and demand indicators. In this scenario, the market would need a clearer catalyst—such as stronger export activity or a material change in supply expectations—to establish a sustained directional trend. Cotton Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is cautiously constructive but unconfirmed. Futures have advanced across the listed contracts, yet the combination of a stronger US dollar and uncertain demand makes it premature to assume that a sustained rally is underway. The principal factors to monitor are: US dollar direction: Continued dollar strength could weigh on US export competitiveness, while a pullback may support overseas demand. Crude oil prices: Higher energy costs may affect agricultural inputs and competing fibres, but could also pressure consumer spending. Export demand: Evidence of stronger US cotton sales would provide a more convincing fundamental basis for continued gains. Supply and inventories: Certified stocks, global production estimates and mill consumption need to be considered together to assess market tightness. Futures momentum: Follow-through buying across December 2026 and the 2027 contracts would strengthen the case for a recovery. If futures maintain their recent gains and demand indicators improve, cotton could attempt to extend its rebound. However, a firmer dollar or disappointing export activity may limit upside potential and return attention to the downside. For now, the market remains sensitive to changes in currency and energy prices, with the next sustained move likely to depend on whether demand fundamentals confirm the improvement in futures. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Cotton's latest advance is encouraging, but the broader picture remains mixed. Higher crude oil prices may increase agricultural and textile production costs, while a stronger dollar can make US supplies less competitive for overseas buyers. Neither influence offers an unambiguously bullish signal. The difference between futures gains and the unchanged Cotlook A Index and ICE-certified stocks also suggests that the latest move should be assessed cautiously. The available figures do not yet establish a decisive improvement in physical demand or a tightening of exchange-certified supply. I would focus on whether futures can sustain their gains alongside stronger export activity and clearer evidence of demand. A weaker dollar could provide an additional tailwind, but if currency strength persists and textile demand disappoints, the recovery may lose momentum. The outlook is therefore cautiously constructive in the short term, with confirmation from demand and price action needed before adopting a stronger bullish view. Currency Hedger View Cotton prices and foreign exchange movements can affect growers, textile manufacturers, exporters and importers operating across international markets. A stronger dollar can alter the local-currency cost of US cotton for overseas buyers, while fluctuations in energy prices may influence manufacturing, logistics and operating margins. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more. Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Commodity markets can be volatile, and forecasts may not materialise. Market participants should conduct their own research and assess their risk tolerance before making trading or investment decisions.

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Energies

October 13, 2026

Coal Price Forecast: Futures Hold Near Three-Year High as LNG Costs Support Demand

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Coal futures are trading just below $150 per tonne, remaining near a three-year high as elevated liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices encourage power generators to turn towards cheaper coal supplies. With coal reportedly costing around 80% less than LNG, buyers in Asia and Europe are increasing imports ahead of the winter season, supporting prices despite longer-term efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Supply constraints are adding to the bullish pressure. Indonesia, the world's leading coal exporter, has tightened export restrictions, contributing to a reported 23% decline in shipments in August. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global coal demand to reach a record high this year, highlighting the continued role of coal in meeting electricity needs when alternative fuels become more expensive or less readily available. The outlook for the coming sessions will depend on the persistence of LNG supply disruptions, the pace of winter restocking and the availability of Indonesian coal. While current fundamentals remain supportive, changes in energy prices, government policy and weather conditions could trigger sharp reversals. Coal Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest updateCoal futuresJust below $150/tonneRecent price trendNear a three-year highRelative costCoal reportedly around 80% cheaper than LNGGlobal demand outlookIEA projects a record high this yearIndonesian coal shipmentsDown 23% in AugustIndonesian production outlookIEA expects a decline of more than 12 million tonnesKey demand driversLNG prices, winter restocking and power generationNear-term outlookCautiously bullish, with supply risks Fundamental Drivers: Fuel Switching and Supply Constraints Elevated LNG prices encourage a shift towards coal Higher LNG prices are making coal an increasingly attractive alternative for electricity producers able to switch between fuels. The reported cost advantage of coal is encouraging utilities and industrial buyers to secure supplies ahead of the winter period, when heating demand and electricity consumption can increase. This fuel-switching effect is particularly important in Asia and Europe, where energy security and affordability remain central considerations for power generators. If LNG prices stay elevated because of Middle East-related supply disruptions, demand for coal could remain firm. However, the scale of substitution depends on power-plant capabilities, fuel availability, environmental regulations and the cost of emissions allowances. Not every generator can switch fuels immediately, and higher coal demand may be limited if LNG prices ease or governments introduce additional restrictions. Middle East tensions increase energy-market uncertainty Supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have contributed to elevated LNG prices, increasing uncertainty across global energy markets. When natural gas becomes more expensive or less readily available, coal can benefit as an alternative source of baseload electricity generation. This relationship can support coal prices even when the underlying coal market has no major new demand shock of its own. The risk is that developments in the region can change quickly. A reduction in supply disruptions could bring LNG prices lower and reduce the economic incentive to switch towards coal. Conversely, further disruptions could sustain fuel-switching demand and add pressure to already tight energy markets. IEA forecasts record global coal demand The IEA projected in September that global coal demand would reach a record high this year, despite the continued transition towards cleaner energy and the closure of numerous coal-fired power plants across Europe and North America. The outlook illustrates the tension between long-term decarbonisation objectives and immediate energy-security requirements. Coal demand can remain resilient when electricity consumption is strong, renewable generation is insufficient to meet demand, or natural gas becomes prohibitively expensive. For prices, the important distinction is between the long-term structural outlook and near-term consumption. Coal faces significant policy and environmental headwinds over the longer term, but immediate demand can still rise when relative fuel costs and supply security favor its use. Indonesian export restrictions tighten supply Indonesia's tighter export restrictions are adding another source of support to the market. The measures contributed to a reported 23% decline in shipments in August, limiting the volume of coal available to international buyers. The IEA also expects Indonesian coal production to decline by more than 12 million tonnes this year, citing lower production quotas and policy uncertainty. As the world's leading coal exporter, Indonesia plays an important role in determining seaborne supply availability. If export restrictions and lower production persist, buyers may need to compete more aggressively for cargoes from alternative suppliers. This could support prices, particularly if Asian and European utilities continue building inventories ahead of winter. Nevertheless, the effect will depend on the availability of replacement supplies, export policies in other producing countries and whether Indonesian restrictions remain in place. Technical Outlook: Coal Prices Test Elevated Levels Below $150 Coal futures are trading just below $150 per tonne, close to a three-year high. The price level reflects supportive demand and supply conditions, but the available market information does not provide verified chart-based support and resistance levels. The $150 area is therefore an important psychological reference rather than a confirmed technical breakout level. Traders should check current charts for recent highs, swing lows and momentum indicators before assigning specific price targets. Bullish scenario Coal prices could extend their gains if LNG remains expensive, winter restocking accelerates and Indonesian export restrictions continue to constrain supply. A sustained move above the $150 area would indicate that buyers remain willing to pay higher prices, although confirmation from current price action and continued physical demand would be important. Bearish scenario Prices could retreat if Middle East-related LNG supply concerns ease, natural gas becomes more competitive or winter demand expectations weaken. An improvement in Indonesian export availability or greater supply from other producers could also reduce competition for seaborne cargoes. If these developments coincide with profit-taking near the current highs, coal futures could come under pressure. Neutral scenario Coal could consolidate near current levels if strong demand is offset by uncertainty over policy, supply responses and the trajectory of LNG prices. In this scenario, market participants may wait for clearer evidence of winter purchasing activity and the extent to which Indonesian production and exports are reduced. Coal Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, supported by high LNG prices, fuel switching and restrictions on Indonesian exports. Coal's relative cost advantage is encouraging buyers to secure supplies, while expectations of record global demand reinforce the current market narrative. The key variables to monitor are: LNG prices: Continued strength could encourage further substitution towards coal, while easing gas prices would weaken that incentive. Winter demand: Increased restocking and colder-weather forecasts could support buying activity in Asia and Europe. Indonesian supply: Further export restrictions or production reductions could tighten seaborne availability. Geopolitical developments: Changes in Middle East supply conditions could quickly alter the relative economics of coal and gas. Energy policy: Environmental regulations and changes to coal-fired generation capacity may limit demand in some markets. Coal prices may remain elevated while energy security concerns and the cost advantage over LNG persist. However, the market is already trading near a multi-year high, leaving prices sensitive to any improvement in gas supply or weakening in winter demand expectations. A sustained move higher would require continued evidence that demand is outpacing available supply. If LNG prices retreat or coal exports recover, the current rally could lose momentum. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Coal is benefiting from a combination of relative fuel economics and supply uncertainty. When LNG becomes substantially more expensive, utilities with the flexibility to switch fuels have an incentive to increase coal consumption. At the same time, Indonesia's export restrictions are limiting an important source of seaborne supply. These factors provide a constructive near-term backdrop, but the market's proximity to a three-year high means expectations matter. If the current price already reflects strong winter demand and constrained Indonesian shipments, further gains may require additional evidence of supply tightness or stronger-than-expected buying. I would focus on LNG price movements, Indonesian export availability and winter restocking activity. Continued gas-market disruption could keep coal supported, while a reduction in energy-market tensions or an improvement in supply could trigger a correction. The immediate outlook favors elevated prices, but the longer-term direction remains sensitive to policy changes and the pace of the energy transition. Currency Hedger View Coal price fluctuations can affect electricity producers, industrial consumers, commodity traders and businesses with international energy supply chains. Changes in energy prices and exchange rates can influence procurement costs, margins and the local-currency value of cross-border contracts. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more. Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Commodity markets can be volatile, and forecasts may not materialise. Market participants should conduct their own research and assess their risk tolerance before making trading or investment decisions.

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Energies

October 13, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Edge Lower

US natural gas futures fell for a second day to $3.15 per MMBtu on Tuesday, as Gulf Coast producers restore operations after Hurricane Isaias, while warmer weather forecasts curbed early-season heating demand. As of Monday, around 25% of natural gas output remained shut in, according to the US Marine Minerals Administration. However, the impact on overall supply was limited, as offshore production accounted for just 2% of total marketed gas output. In addition, forecasts of above-average temperatures across the eastern US from October 22-26 could delay the seasonal pickup in heating demand. Prices also declined amid weaker LNG activity, with gas flows to the nine major export plants falling to 17.4 bcfd in October from 17.9 bcfd in September. Meanwhile, Lower 48 output dropped to 110.7 bcfd this month from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September, amid hurricane-related shut-ins, force majeure events and pipeline disruptions in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere.

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Markets

October 13, 2026

Palm Oil Price Forecast: Record Malaysian Inventories Weigh on Futures Below MYR 4,600

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Malaysian palm oil futures have retreated below MYR 4,600 per tonne as rising inventories, stronger production and weaker exports reinforce concerns over the market's supply-demand balance. Pressure from competing edible oils in China and the United States, alongside lower crude oil prices, is also weighing on sentiment by reducing palm oil's relative attractiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. The latest Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) figures point to a substantial build-up in available supplies, with September inventories reaching a record 3.51 million tonnes. However, stronger export shipments at the start of October could provide a degree of support if the improvement continues. Traders are also monitoring China's upcoming inflation and trade data for indications of demand in one of the world's key consuming markets. Palm Oil Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest updateMalaysian palm oil futuresBelow MYR 4,600/tonneSeptember inventoriesRecord 3.51 million tonnesMonthly inventory change+24.5%September production2.12 million tonnesMonthly production change+16.5%September exports1.12 million tonnesMonthly export change-12.1%Early October export estimates+33.5% to +37.7% month-on-monthNear-term outlookCautious to bearish Fundamental Drivers: Rising Stocks Keep Pressure on Prices Record inventories reinforce the bearish outlook Malaysian palm oil inventories rose 24.5% month-on-month in September to 3.51 million tonnes, extending the increase for a sixth consecutive month. The record stockpile highlights the challenge facing the market as production continues to outpace the pace of export demand. Elevated inventories can weigh on prices by increasing the volume of supply available to buyers and reducing the urgency to secure additional cargoes. Unless exports accelerate sufficiently to absorb the surplus, stocks may remain a central source of downward pressure over the coming sessions. The key question is whether the market is approaching a turning point in inventory accumulation or whether rising production will continue to outstrip demand. Further stock increases would strengthen the bearish case, while evidence of sustained inventory drawdowns could improve sentiment. Production reaches its highest level since 2015 Malaysian palm oil production climbed 16.5% in September to 2.12 million tonnes, its highest level since August 2015. The increase adds to the supply pressure and makes a sustained price recovery more difficult unless demand improves. Seasonal production patterns remain important, but the market will need to see whether output begins to moderate as the year progresses. If production stays elevated while exports remain subdued, the resulting supply surplus could keep futures under pressure. Conversely, any slowdown in output or disruption to harvesting could help rebalance the market, particularly if export demand strengthens at the same time. Exports decline for a second consecutive month Malaysian palm oil exports fell 12.1% in September to 1.12 million tonnes, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. The weakness is significant because export demand is a key mechanism through which Malaysia reduces domestic inventories. However, early October data provide a more encouraging signal. Cargo surveyors estimate that Malaysian palm oil product exports rose between 33.5% and 37.7% month-on-month during October 1–10. If confirmed and sustained, this improvement could help absorb some of the excess supply and limit further price declines. Nevertheless, the early-month figures cover a relatively short period and should not yet be treated as evidence of a lasting recovery in demand. The coming sessions will reveal whether the stronger shipment pace continues or whether September's weakness remains representative of the broader export trend. Competing edible oils and crude oil add pressure Palm oil futures are also facing competition from weaker edible-oil markets in Dalian and Chicago. Price movements in competing oils can influence substitution decisions among food manufacturers and other industrial buyers, affecting the relative attractiveness of palm oil. Lower crude oil prices are another headwind. When fossil-fuel prices decline, the economics of using vegetable oils as biodiesel feedstock can become less favorable, depending on policy incentives, blending mandates and production costs. If crude oil remains weak and competing edible oils continue to struggle, palm oil could face additional pressure beyond the domestic Malaysian supply surplus. A recovery in energy prices or competing vegetable oils, however, could help improve sentiment. China's economic data could influence demand expectations China's upcoming inflation and trade data are likely to attract attention as investors assess the outlook for consumption and import demand. Stronger economic indicators could support expectations for improved buying activity, while weaker figures may reinforce concerns about demand for edible oils and related commodities. The effect on palm oil prices will depend not only on China's headline economic performance but also on actual purchasing activity, relative prices and competition from alternative oils. Technical Outlook: MYR 4,600 Is the Immediate Reference Level Palm oil futures have moved below MYR 4,600 per tonne, placing attention on whether this level becomes resistance or whether prices can reclaim it. The available market information does not provide verified chart-based support or resistance levels beyond the current price reference. Traders should confirm recent swing lows, highs and momentum indicators against a current chart before assigning precise technical targets. Bearish scenario If prices remain below MYR 4,600, inventories continue to rise and export demand fails to sustain its early October improvement, futures could remain vulnerable to further weakness. Continued pressure from competing edible oils and lower crude oil prices would reinforce this scenario. A renewed decline in export shipments would also suggest that the market is struggling to absorb the available supply. Bullish scenario A sustained recovery in Malaysian exports could help reduce inventory pressure and support a rebound. If futures reclaim MYR 4,600 and stronger shipments are followed by evidence of improving demand, market sentiment may begin to stabilise. Higher crude oil prices or a recovery in competing edible oils could provide additional support, particularly if Malaysian production begins to moderate. Neutral scenario Prices could consolidate around current levels if record inventories limit buying interest while stronger early October exports discourage aggressive selling. In this scenario, traders are likely to await further monthly data and confirmation of whether recent export gains translate into a meaningful improvement in the supply-demand balance. Palm Oil Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook remains cautious to bearish, with record inventories and strong production outweighing the initial signs of an export recovery. The most important indicator will be whether the stronger export pace recorded during the first ten days of October continues. A sustained improvement could help reduce the stock overhang, but one early-month reading is not enough to confirm that the market has entered a durable recovery. The key factors to monitor are: Inventory trends: Further increases would reinforce concerns over excess supply, while a sustained decline could support prices. Export demand: Continued strength in October shipments could help absorb Malaysian production and limit losses. Production levels: Any moderation in output could improve the supply-demand balance. Crude oil and competing edible oils: Relative price movements will influence palm oil's attractiveness in food and biodiesel markets. Chinese economic data: The latest figures could influence expectations for demand, although actual purchasing trends will remain crucial. Unless demand improves enough to offset the elevated supply, rallies may struggle to gain traction. However, if October exports remain strong and inventory growth begins to slow, the market could stabilise despite the currently bearish fundamentals. For now, MYR 4,600 per tonne remains an important reference level, while confirmation of a broader trend change will require clearer evidence that the supply surplus is beginning to ease. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Palm oil is facing a supply-led market challenge. Record Malaysian inventories, stronger production and two consecutive months of declining exports have created a difficult backdrop for prices. The market is not short of supply; the central question is whether demand can accelerate quickly enough to absorb it. The early October export figures offer a potential counterweight to the bearish outlook, but they need to be confirmed by sustained shipment growth and subsequent inventory data. If exports improve while production moderates, the market could begin to rebalance. If production remains elevated and shipments lose momentum, further price weakness remains possible. I would therefore focus on the next evidence of inventory stabilisation rather than treating stronger early-month exports as confirmation of a recovery. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside while prices trade below MYR 4,600 and the stock overhang persists, although developments in energy markets and competing vegetable oils could quickly alter the outlook. Currency Hedger View Palm oil price movements can affect producers, processors, exporters and food manufacturers with international supply chains. Changes in commodity prices and exchange rates can influence procurement costs, export revenues and profit margins, particularly for businesses trading across currencies. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more. Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Commodity markets can be volatile, and forecasts may not materialise. Market participants should conduct their own research and assess their risk tolerance before making trading or investment decisions.

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Markets

October 13, 2026

Soybean Price Forecast: Futures Hit Six-Week Low as Record US Crop Weighs on Prices

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Soybean futures are under pressure, trading below $12.80 per bushel and reaching a six-week low as expectations for a larger US harvest and improving crop conditions in South America weigh on the market. Higher US production and yield forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), combined with an accelerating harvest, are strengthening near-term supply expectations. Attention is now turning to the pace of US harvesting, Brazil’s planting progress and whether renewed trade discussions between the United States and China can translate into stronger demand for American soybeans. Unless export demand improves meaningfully, abundant supply could continue to limit the potential for a sustained recovery over the coming sessions. Soybean Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest updateSoybean futuresBelow $12.80/bushelRecent price actionSix-week lowUS production forecast4.562 billion bushelsPrevious US production estimate4.535 billion bushelsUS average yield forecast53.1 bushels per acreBrazil plantingAdvancing at a record paceChina soybean import forecast95.5 million tonnesMarket biasCautious to bearish Fundamental Drivers: Rising Supply Expectations Pressure Soybeans USDA raises US production and yield forecasts The USDA has raised its 2026 US soybean production forecast to 4.562 billion bushels, up from 4.535 billion in September and above market expectations of 4.534 billion. The agency also increased its average yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8. The upward revisions reinforce expectations of a substantial US crop, increasing the risk that available supplies will exceed near-term demand. With futures already falling to a six-week low, traders may remain reluctant to establish aggressive bullish positions until clearer evidence emerges that export demand can absorb the additional production. The next important indicator is the weekly USDA crop progress report. Its assessment of harvest completion and field conditions should help determine whether the pace of supply entering the market continues to accelerate. Dry Midwest weather supports harvesting Mostly dry weather across the US Midwest is allowing farmers to make faster harvesting progress. This is reducing the risk of weather-related delays and bringing more of the expected crop into the supply chain. A rapid harvest can add short-term selling pressure as producers deliver soybeans to market. If harvesting continues smoothly and crop estimates remain elevated, prices may struggle to establish a durable floor. However, harvesting progress alone does not determine the longer-term direction. Export sales, domestic processing demand and the amount of crop ultimately available for storage will also influence the balance between supply and consumption. Brazil's planting progress adds to the global supply outlook Brazil's soybean planting campaign is advancing at a record pace, supported by favorable rainfall. This provides an additional source of supply pressure, particularly if planting conditions remain constructive and the crop develops without significant weather disruptions. Brazil is a major competitor to US exporters. A healthy South American crop could increase competition for international buyers in the months ahead, limiting the ability of US farmers to command higher prices. Weather remains an important variable, however. Changes in rainfall patterns during planting and subsequent crop development could quickly alter production expectations and introduce renewed volatility into the market. China Demand: The Key Counterweight to Rising Supply Trade discussions have yet to guarantee stronger purchases Traders are watching for evidence that recent discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will lead to additional Chinese purchases of American agricultural products. Any meaningful reduction in trade friction could improve sentiment and provide support for soybean futures. Nevertheless, punitive Chinese tariffs continue to discourage private buyers from purchasing US supplies, leaving uncertainty over the scale and timing of any demand recovery. Market participants will therefore need to distinguish between positive diplomatic developments and confirmed commercial purchases. Without evidence of stronger export commitments, expectations surrounding trade negotiations may provide only temporary support. China's production and import forecasts differ from the USDA outlook China has lowered its 2026/27 domestic soybean production forecast to 20.36 million tonnes, while maintaining its import outlook at 95.5 million tonnes. That import estimate is considerably below the USDA's projection of 115 million tonnes. The difference highlights uncertainty over the scale of China's future import demand. Lower domestic production could increase the need for imported soybeans, but the effect will depend on consumption, stock levels, purchasing policies and the share of demand directed toward US rather than South American supplies. For the market, stronger Chinese buying would provide an important counterweight to expanding US production. Until that demand becomes more visible, the supply outlook is likely to remain the dominant near-term influence. Technical Outlook: Soybeans Test Support Below $12.80 Soybean futures have fallen below $12.80 per bushel and reached their lowest level in six weeks. This signals deteriorating short-term momentum, although the available market information does not establish a verified technical support level below the current price. The $12.80 area is an immediate reference point for the coming sessions. A recovery above it could indicate that buyers are beginning to defend the market, while continued trading below this area would leave prices vulnerable to further weakness. Traders should monitor the latest price chart and confirmed swing lows before assigning precise support and resistance levels. Bearish scenario If US harvesting continues at a strong pace, production estimates remain elevated and Chinese demand fails to improve, soybean futures could remain under pressure. A sustained move below the recent six-week low would increase the risk of another leg lower, particularly if export data reinforce concerns about competition from Brazil. Bullish scenario Prices could recover if trade discussions produce confirmed Chinese purchases, export demand strengthens or adverse weather begins to threaten South American crop prospects. A return above $12.80 would be an initial sign of stabilisation, although a sustained recovery would require evidence that demand is improving relative to supply. Neutral scenario Soybeans could consolidate around current levels while the market waits for the USDA crop progress report, fresh export information and further developments in US-China trade relations. This outcome would suggest that bearish supply expectations are being balanced by uncertainty over future demand. Soybean Price Forecast: Outlook for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook remains cautious to bearish, with the balance of risk tilted toward further weakness while futures remain below $12.80 per bushel. The principal pressure comes from the USDA's higher production and yield forecasts, together with favorable harvesting conditions across the US Midwest. Brazil's rapid planting progress adds to expectations of ample global availability, increasing competition among exporters. The next phase of price discovery will depend on whether demand can absorb the larger expected crop. The USDA's weekly crop progress report, US export activity and any confirmed Chinese purchases will be particularly important in determining whether the recent decline extends or gives way to a recovery. A sustained improvement in trade relations could help prices stabilise, but optimism alone may not be sufficient. Without tangible evidence of stronger buying, rallies could attract renewed selling interest. Conversely, weather disruptions in South America or a meaningful improvement in US export demand could change the balance and support a recovery. For now, the market appears more vulnerable to supply-driven weakness than positioned for a sustained bullish reversal. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Soybeans are facing a familiar agricultural-market challenge: rising production expectations are arriving at a time when the demand outlook remains uncertain. The USDA's upward revisions have strengthened the supply case, while favorable harvesting conditions and rapid Brazilian planting are reducing immediate concerns about availability. The most important variable is whether China becomes a more active buyer of US soybeans. Diplomatic progress may improve sentiment, but the market ultimately needs confirmed purchases and stronger export flows to offset the additional supply. For the coming sessions, I would watch the relationship between harvest progress and export demand rather than assume that the six-week low automatically represents a buying opportunity. A recovery above $12.80 could signal stabilisation, but a more convincing bullish case would require clear evidence of improving demand or a threat to production. Until those signals emerge, a cautious approach remains appropriate, with weather developments and trade policy capable of changing the outlook quickly. Currency Hedger View Soybean price movements can affect agricultural traders, food manufacturers, importers and businesses exposed to international commodity costs. A stronger US dollar can also influence the purchasing power of overseas buyers, while currency fluctuations may alter the local-currency cost of imported soybeans. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more. Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Commodity prices can be volatile, and forecasts may not materialise. Market participants should conduct their own research and assess their risk tolerance before making trading or investment decisions.

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Energies

October 12, 2026

Brent Crude Price Forecast: Oil Rises Above $105.50 as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Brent crude has climbed above $105.50 per barrel, reaching its highest level in more than two weeks as escalating Middle East tensions heighten concerns over regional security and the reliability of energy supplies. Renewed attacks targeting Saudi Arabia and another tanker incident in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets. Despite these developments, reported Persian Gulf exports have remained relatively resilient, recovering to approximately 17.5 million barrels per day, or around 98% of pre-war levels. This resilience is an important counterweight to the security risks, limiting the extent to which fears of supply disruption necessarily translate into a sustained shortage. Meanwhile, claims of an immediate Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and the prospect of additional Russian diesel exports are adding another layer of uncertainty to the wider fuel market. With the International Energy Agency urging governments to accelerate pledged diesel releases ahead of its October 15 meeting, the coming sessions could prove decisive for crude oil's next move. Brent Crude Market Snapshot Market factorCurrent outlookBrent crude priceAbove $105.50 per barrelRecent price trendHighest level in more than two weeksMiddle East securityRising geopolitical riskPersian Gulf exportsReportedly 17.5 million barrels per dayExport recoveryApproximately 98% of pre-war levelsRussian diesel supplyProposed exports of 500,000 tonnes, according to the reportIEA meetingOctober 15Overall outlookVolatile, with an upward risk bias Market figures and geopolitical developments are based on the supplied report and have not been independently verified as live data. 1. Middle East Tensions Increase the Geopolitical Risk Premium Brent crude is gaining support as renewed attacks in the Middle East raise concerns over the security of energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Saudi Arabia's main airport reportedly came under attack again on Sunday, while another tanker was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. These developments are particularly significant because the region remains central to global oil production and exports. Even when physical supply continues to flow, heightened security risks can increase freight costs, insurance premiums and the possibility of sudden disruptions. The latest incidents follow reported diplomatic contact between Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers and renewed fighting involving Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. The combination of diplomatic efforts and continued security incidents leaves the outlook uncertain. For oil traders, the key question is whether these developments begin to affect actual export volumes or remain primarily a source of risk premium. A disruption to production, loading facilities or shipping routes could push prices higher, while continued export resilience could limit further gains. Forecast: The geopolitical backdrop remains supportive of Brent prices in the near term. However, further upside will depend on whether tensions produce material supply interruptions rather than temporary increases in perceived risk. 2. Persian Gulf Exports Remain a Critical Counterweight Despite the escalating security risks, Persian Gulf oil shipments have reportedly recovered to approximately 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to around 98% of pre-war levels. This is an important development for the market. It suggests that, at the time covered by the report, physical exports have remained relatively resilient despite the heightened threat to regional security. If shipments continue at these levels, the market may avoid a more severe supply shock. That could limit the upward impact of geopolitical developments, particularly if global demand remains subdued or additional supplies become available elsewhere. Nevertheless, export volumes can change quickly if attacks intensify or shipping operators become less willing to transit high-risk areas. The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly important because disruptions there could affect a substantial flow of internationally traded energy. Forecast: Stable export volumes would help contain Brent's gains, while any sustained reduction in shipments would increase the likelihood of another sharp price advance. 3. Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Claims and Diesel Supply Expectations US President Donald Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire. The report also indicates that Russia plans to export 500,000 tonnes of diesel, significantly below the 28.6 million tonnes cited for the previous year. These claims should be treated as reported developments rather than confirmation that a ceasefire has been implemented or that the proposed diesel volumes will reach the market as expected. Additional diesel supplies could ease pressure in refined-fuel markets, especially if deliveries materialise and distribution constraints remain manageable. However, diesel and crude oil are related but distinct markets. An increase in diesel availability does not automatically translate into an equivalent increase in crude supply. The scale and timing of actual exports will therefore matter more than announcements alone. Traders will need to distinguish between proposed supply, confirmed shipments and fuel that is ultimately delivered to consumers. Forecast: Credible evidence of additional Russian diesel exports could ease some refined-fuel pressures, but the impact on Brent may be limited unless the developments also affect crude supply expectations or broader energy demand. 4. IEA Diesel Releases Put Fuel Security in Focus The International Energy Agency has urged governments to accelerate previously pledged diesel releases, warning that market conditions require immediate attention ahead of its October 15 meeting. The timing is important because policymakers are responding to an energy market facing simultaneous security risks and uncertainty over fuel availability. Releasing additional diesel stocks could provide relief to refined-product markets and help reduce the risk of local shortages. However, the impact will depend on the volume released, the speed of distribution and the regions receiving the supplies. Strategic stock releases can ease immediate pressure but do not necessarily resolve the underlying risks associated with production or shipping disruptions. For crude oil, the effect is indirect. If diesel availability improves, some refined-product premiums may moderate. But if geopolitical risks continue to threaten crude exports, Brent could remain elevated despite additional fuel releases. Forecast: The IEA meeting is an important event risk for energy markets. Clear commitments to accelerate releases could temper refined-fuel prices, while limited action or further supply disruptions could reinforce concerns over energy security. 5. Technical Outlook: Brent Holds Above $105.50 Brent crude is trading above $105.50 per barrel, with the latest advance taking prices to their highest level in more than two weeks. The current area provides a reference point for assessing whether buyers can maintain momentum, but the supplied report does not provide verified technical support or resistance levels. Bullish scenario: Brent extends its advance if regional attacks intensify, tanker traffic is disrupted or Persian Gulf exports begin to fall materially. Sustained buying above the current trading area would reinforce the near-term upward bias. Bearish scenario: Prices retreat if regional exports remain resilient, security concerns ease and additional fuel supplies reduce pressure across energy markets. Confirmation of a broader de-escalation could also reduce the geopolitical premium. Neutral scenario: Brent consolidates if security risks remain elevated but physical exports continue close to normal levels. In this environment, headlines could generate sharp intraday moves without establishing a sustained direction. The market remains particularly sensitive to news flow. Traders should verify current chart levels before relying on specific support or resistance prices, as the supplied information does not establish them. 6. Brent Crude Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook for Brent is volatile, with an upward risk bias while Middle East security concerns remain elevated. Renewed attacks and the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz are supporting prices, but resilient Persian Gulf exports are preventing the current situation from automatically translating into a major physical supply shortfall. Three developments will be especially important over the coming sessions: whether regional attacks escalate, whether export volumes remain near reported pre-war levels, and whether the IEA announces meaningful action on diesel supplies at its October 15 meeting. If exports remain resilient and diplomatic efforts produce measurable de-escalation, Brent could surrender part of its recent gains. Conversely, any confirmed interruption to shipping or production would strengthen the case for further upside. The reported Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and prospective diesel exports could influence fuel-market sentiment, but their impact will depend on independent confirmation and actual deliveries. For now, Brent remains supported by geopolitical risk, but the sustainability of the rally depends on whether those risks begin to constrain physical supply. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Brent crude's advance above $105.50 reflects the market's sensitivity to the growing security risks surrounding Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping. The latest incidents are significant because they raise the possibility of disruption to a region central to global oil flows. However, the reported recovery in Persian Gulf exports to approximately 98% of pre-war levels is equally important. It indicates that, despite the heightened risks, physical supply has remained relatively resilient. This creates a tension between the geopolitical premium embedded in prices and the actual availability of crude. The next move will depend on which force dominates. If attacks begin to reduce exports or disrupt tanker movements, Brent could extend its advance. If supply continues to flow and diplomatic efforts gain traction, the current premium could narrow. My outlook is cautiously bullish on risk, but not unconditionally bullish on price. The market remains vulnerable to sharp reversals, and the IEA's October 15 meeting adds another potential catalyst. Traders should focus on confirmed changes in supply and shipping activity rather than reacting to every headline in isolation. Currency Hedger View Crude oil prices can influence inflation, transportation costs, trade balances and currencies across both energy-exporting and energy-importing economies. Rising oil prices may support some exporters' external balances while increasing costs for fuel-importing businesses, making commodity movements an important consideration in foreign exchange risk management. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about managing currency exposure. Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity prices can be volatile, and geopolitical developments can change rapidly. Always conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Aluminum Price Forecast: Prices Hit Lowest Since February as Supply Outlook Improves

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Aluminum prices are under pressure, with UK-traded futures around $3,050 per tonne and hovering near their lowest level since February. A stronger US dollar, easing concerns over Gulf supply disruptions and expectations of expanding production capacity are weighing on the market, while softer demand prospects in China are adding to the downside risks. The global supply outlook is also improving as Middle Eastern smelter restarts progress faster than expected and additional production capacity becomes available. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto's agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania operating through the end of 2031 reinforces expectations of continued supply availability. The coming sessions will test whether aluminum can stabilise near current levels or whether the combination of improving supply prospects and a strong dollar drives prices lower. Aluminum Market Snapshot Market factorCurrent outlookAluminum futuresAround $3,050 per tonneRecent price trendLowest level since FebruaryUS dollarNear an 18-month high, pressuring dollar-denominated commoditiesGulf supply disruptionsConcerns easing as smelter recovery progressesIndonesian productionExpanding capacity adds to supply expectationsMiddle Eastern smeltersRestarts progressing faster than anticipatedChinese demandWeaker expectations weigh on pricesOverall outlookCautious to bearish Market price and developments reflect the supplied report and have not been independently verified as live data. 1. Stronger US Dollar Adds Pressure to Aluminum The US dollar is trading near an 18-month high, creating an additional headwind for aluminum and other dollar-denominated commodities. A stronger dollar can make metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially limiting international demand. It can also reflect broader financial conditions that influence commodity investment and market positioning. The effect is particularly relevant when supply expectations are already improving. With production concerns easing and demand prospects uncertain, currency pressure may reinforce selling rather than provide a temporary obstacle to an otherwise strong market. For the coming sessions, aluminum's direction will partly depend on whether the dollar maintains its strength. A sustained dollar rally could extend pressure on prices, while a reversal in the US currency may offer some relief. Forecast: The dollar remains a significant downside risk while it holds near elevated levels. Aluminum could find support if the currency weakens, but a durable recovery would also require a more favourable physical supply-and-demand balance. 2. Middle Eastern Smelter Restarts Ease Supply Concerns The recovery of aluminum production in the Middle East is reducing concerns about prolonged supply disruptions. Emirates Global Aluminium reported in late August that approximately one-quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi had resumed operations as recovery work continued following damage from an Iranian attack in March. The pace of the restart is important because unexpected production losses can tighten the global aluminum market, particularly when inventories are limited or replacement supplies are difficult to secure. Faster-than-anticipated recovery changes that calculation. As more capacity returns, the risk of a prolonged supply shortfall diminishes, potentially reducing the premium previously associated with disruption fears. However, the pace and extent of the remaining recovery still matter. A renewed escalation in regional tensions or further damage to energy and industrial infrastructure could quickly reverse the improvement in supply expectations. Forecast: The return of Middle Eastern capacity is bearish for prices at the margin, provided restarts continue without major setbacks. Renewed disruptions would introduce a significant upside risk. 3. Indonesian Capacity and Global Supply Expectations Weigh on Prices Expanding production capacity in Indonesia is adding to expectations of greater aluminum availability. At the same time, Macquarie has reportedly lowered its forecast for the global aluminum supply deficit as Middle Eastern smelter restarts have progressed faster than anticipated. A smaller projected deficit does not necessarily mean the market will move into a surplus. However, it suggests that the balance between production and consumption may be less restrictive than previously expected. Supply growth can weigh on prices when demand fails to expand at a comparable pace. If additional Indonesian output and restored Middle Eastern production coincide with weak industrial consumption, buyers may have less urgency to secure material. The outlook will depend on actual production volumes, capacity utilisation and the rate at which new metal is absorbed by manufacturers. Announced capacity does not always translate immediately into equivalent market supply. Forecast: Supply growth is a medium-term downside risk. Aluminum could remain under pressure if production expands faster than demand, although stronger consumption or unexpected outages could tighten the market again. 4. Rio Tinto's Bell Bay Agreement Supports Longer-Term Supply Continuity Rio Tinto has secured an agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania operating through the end of 2031. The agreement improves the outlook for the continuity of production from the facility and reduces uncertainty surrounding its operating future. For the global market, continued operations can support supply availability over the longer term. The price impact will depend on the smelter's output, operating costs and how its production compares with changes in demand and supply elsewhere. The agreement should not be interpreted as an immediate surge in aluminum supply. Rather, it provides greater certainty that existing capacity will remain available, contributing to a broader picture of supply resilience. Forecast: The agreement is modestly bearish at the margin if continued production adds to an already improving supply outlook. Its immediate influence may be limited compared with broader changes in global output, demand and currency conditions. 5. Weaker Chinese Demand Expectations Limit Recovery Potential China remains a major influence on the aluminum market through its industrial production, construction activity, manufacturing output and demand for transport and electrical infrastructure. Weaker demand expectations in China are adding to the pressure on prices. Even if supply disruptions ease and production capacity expands, a recovery will be difficult to sustain if consumption fails to absorb the additional metal. The relationship between Chinese demand and global production will therefore remain central to the outlook. Stronger manufacturing orders, infrastructure activity or export demand could help stabilise the market. Continued weakness in construction and industrial consumption would increase the risk that additional supply places further pressure on prices. Forecast: Chinese demand remains a key downside risk. A more sustained recovery in aluminum would require clearer evidence that consumption is improving alongside the expanding supply base. 6. Technical Outlook: Aluminum Tests Support Near $3,050 Aluminum futures are trading around $3,050 per tonne, near their lowest level since February. The area is an important reference point for assessing whether the current decline begins to stabilise, although the supplied report does not provide confirmed technical support or resistance levels. Bearish scenario: Prices continue lower if the US dollar remains strong, Middle Eastern production recovers further and Chinese demand expectations weaken. A sustained move below the current trading area would reinforce the downside bias, with subsequent technical levels requiring confirmation from current market charts. Bullish scenario: Aluminum stabilises if selling pressure eases, the dollar weakens or supply concerns return. Stronger Chinese industrial demand or renewed disruption to major producing regions could also encourage a rebound. Neutral scenario: Prices consolidate around current levels if improving supply prospects are balanced by production constraints, uncertain demand and changing currency conditions. For now, the broader balance of risks remains tilted to the downside. A lasting reversal would require more than a short-term bounce; buyers would need evidence that demand is improving or that the expected increase in supply is not materialising as anticipated. 7. Aluminum Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook for aluminum remains cautious to bearish. The combination of a strong US dollar, easing Gulf supply concerns, expanding Indonesian capacity and weaker Chinese demand expectations creates a challenging environment for prices. The restoration of Middle Eastern smelting capacity is particularly important because it reduces the likelihood that earlier disruptions will continue to constrain supply to the same degree. Longer-term operating certainty at Bell Bay also supports expectations of continued production availability. Nevertheless, aluminum's decline may become overstretched if the market has already priced in much of the improving supply outlook. A weaker dollar, stronger Chinese demand or fresh production disruptions could prompt a recovery. Over the coming sessions, traders should monitor the US dollar, updates on Middle Eastern smelter restarts, Indonesian output, Chinese industrial indicators and changes in global aluminum inventories. These factors will help establish whether prices are approaching a stabilisation point or remain vulnerable to further losses. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Aluminum is facing pressure from both the currency environment and improving supply expectations. The stronger dollar is making conditions less favourable for dollar-denominated commodities, while the faster recovery of Middle Eastern smelters is reducing concerns about a prolonged supply shortfall. The expansion of Indonesian production adds another potential source of supply, and the continued operation of Rio Tinto's Bell Bay smelter reinforces the longer-term availability outlook. At the same time, softer expectations for Chinese demand are limiting the market's ability to absorb additional production. My outlook is cautiously bearish. Prices may remain under pressure if supply expands while the dollar stays firm and Chinese demand remains subdued. However, the market is also exposed to a reversal if geopolitical tensions disrupt production again or if demand improves more quickly than expected. The key question is whether global consumption can keep pace with the improving supply outlook. Until clearer evidence emerges, rallies may struggle to gain traction, although the area around $3,050 per tonne warrants close monitoring for signs of stabilisation. Currency Hedger View Aluminum prices can influence industrial costs, manufacturing margins, trade balances and currencies linked to commodity exports. A sustained decline may ease input-cost pressures for some manufacturers, while weaker industrial demand can signal broader economic challenges for commodity-producing economies. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about managing currency exposure. Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity prices can be volatile, and market conditions may change rapidly. Always conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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Banks

October 12, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI measures support INR against US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Santosh Ejanthkar and Tanmay Purohit highlight that USD/INR fell by more than 1% after the RBI unveiled a broad FX-support package, including a dedicated oil import window and tighter restrictions on corporate hedging. They expect an initial INR rebound and lower forward premiums, but caution that the medium-term outlook will depend on oil prices, portfolio flows and broader US Dollar trends. FX-support package underpins INR near term "RBI surprise policy measures deflate USD/INR 1.2%." "In EM Asia, the INR rallied over 1% to 95.58/USD this morning following a broad set of FX-support measures announced by the RBI over the weekend, including the reintroduction of a dedicated oil import window, tighter restrictions on corporate hedging activity, limits on uncovered FX transactions, a ban on rebooking cancelled derivatives and fresh OMO bond sales." "Together, these steps signal a more proactive defence of the INR and complement the RBI’s recent shift toward a calibrated tightening stance." "While we expect an initial INR bounce and lower forward premiums as structural dollar demand eases, the medium-term outlook will remain driven by oil prices, portfolio flows and broader USD trends."

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Banks

October 12, 2026

CEE FX: Inflation data versus global Dollar strength – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy week for CEE with key inflation releases and IMF meetings, while regional FX remains driven mainly by global factors. ING keeps a broadly bearish stance on CEE currencies, expecting EUR/PLN to stay near 4.40 and the Forint exposed to higher energy prices and a stronger Dollar, while retaining a bullish view on the Koruna towards EUR/CZK 24.250. Regional data under global FX headwinds "This week’s focus is on regional inflation releases and speakers. Romania’s September inflation is due tomorrow; we expect it to rise from 6.2% to 6.4% and, consistent with the central bank’s guidance last week, increase further through year-end. In the Czech Republic, final data should confirm September inflation at 2.5%, while Czech National Bank core inflation is likely to edge up from 3.0% to 3.1-3.2%, above the central bank’s forecast." "Poland’s headline inflation should be confirmed at 4.0% on Wednesday, followed by a likely drop in core inflation from 3.3% to 3.1% on Thursday, giving the National Bank of Poland more room to manoeuvre. Hungary releases wage data on Friday; wage growth remains high relative to the region and continues to pose inflationary risks." "Beyond the data calendar, attention will turn to the IMF meetings in Bangkok, where CEE officials are expected to speak. Hungary may publish next year’s draft budget and medium-term fiscal outlook late in the week." "CEE FX remains primarily driven by global factors, and our bearish regional bias is broadly unchanged. After the NBP meeting, EUR/PLN rose into our expected 4.380-4.400 range and is likely to stay near its upper end in the coming days." "The forint is awaiting the government’s 2027 budget announcement but remains exposed to higher energy prices and a stronger US dollar. The koruna remains the outlier, supported by a wider interest-rate differential. We retain a bullish koruna view and expect EUR/CZK to move towards 24.250."

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Agricultural Commodities Forecast: Oats and Sugar Fall as Rice and Corn Advance

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Agricultural commodity markets are showing mixed performance, with oats and sugar moving lower while rice and corn record modest gains. Oats lead the reported declines, falling 1.64%, followed by sugar at 0.88%. On the upside, rice advances 0.53% and corn gains 0.51%, reflecting differing price dynamics across agricultural markets. The divergence highlights the importance of crop-specific supply and demand, harvest progress, weather conditions, export activity and changes in global food consumption. While the latest movements provide a snapshot of market sentiment, they do not establish a lasting trend without confirmation from underlying fundamentals. The coming sessions will test whether the declines in oats and sugar continue or attract fresh buying, while rice and corn will need sustained demand and supportive supply conditions to extend their gains. Agricultural Market Snapshot CommodityReported moveMarket directionOats-1.64%Leading declineSugar-0.88%LowerRice+0.53%HigherCorn+0.51%Higher Price changes reflect the supplied market snapshot and are not independently verified live quotes. 1. Oats Lead Agricultural Market Losses Oats fall 1.64%, making them the weakest performer among the agricultural commodities listed. The available market update does not identify a specific catalyst for the decline, leaving traders to assess whether the move reflects short-term positioning or changing expectations for supply and demand. Oat prices are influenced by crop conditions, harvest results, weather patterns, feed demand, food-processing requirements and competition from other grains. Changes in regional availability can also affect prices, particularly when production is concentrated in a limited number of growing areas. Looking ahead, the market will need to assess crop supply estimates, producer selling activity and demand from food and feed users. If available supplies remain comfortable and buying interest weakens, prices could face further pressure. Conversely, adverse weather or tighter-than-expected availability could support a recovery. Forecast: The near-term outlook for oats is cautious following the reported decline. Further weakness is possible if supply remains ample, although the absence of a confirmed catalyst means a sustained bearish trend is not yet established. 2. Sugar Prices Weaken Amid Supply and Demand Uncertainty Sugar declines 0.88%, extending the negative tone across part of the agricultural complex. The market is sensitive to sugarcane and sugar beet production, weather conditions in major producing countries, export availability and global consumption. Energy markets can also influence sugar pricing because sugarcane may be used to produce ethanol as well as sugar. Changes in energy prices and ethanol economics can affect how producers allocate cane between these uses, although the impact depends on local market conditions and policy settings. The latest decline does not establish whether the market is responding to improved supply expectations, weaker demand or broader commodity positioning. Traders will need to monitor production forecasts, export flows and weather conditions in major growing regions for confirmation. Forecast: Sugar retains a cautious near-term bias. Expectations of stronger production or abundant export supplies could weigh on prices, while adverse growing conditions, tighter availability or improved demand could trigger a rebound. 3. Rice Advances as the Market Assesses Supply Conditions Rice rises 0.53%, moving against the declines in oats and sugar. Rice prices are influenced by harvest outcomes, weather, export restrictions, government stockpiles, shipping costs and demand from major importing countries. Trade policy is particularly important in rice markets because restrictions or changes in export availability can alter global supply rapidly. At the same time, favourable harvests and larger exportable surpluses can limit price increases even when demand remains steady. The reported gain suggests modest positive momentum, but further confirmation is needed before concluding that a sustained recovery is developing. Changes in export offers, procurement activity and crop estimates will be important indicators over the coming sessions. Forecast: Rice has a cautiously constructive short-term outlook while the latest gains hold. Stronger import demand or tighter export availability could support further advances, while improved harvest prospects and greater supply could limit upside. 4. Corn Gains as Demand and Harvest Developments Remain in Focus Corn advances 0.51%, joining rice among the gainers in the reported agricultural snapshot. Corn prices are closely linked to harvest progress, yield expectations, export demand, livestock feed consumption, ethanol production and weather conditions in major growing regions. As new-crop supplies become available, the market must balance harvest volumes against domestic consumption and export commitments. A large harvest can create downward pressure if supply outpaces demand, while stronger exports, production concerns or robust ethanol use may help support prices. The latest increase is modest and does not, by itself, confirm a shift in the broader market trend. The direction of corn prices will depend on whether buying interest is sustained and how incoming supply data compares with expectations. Forecast: Corn retains a cautiously positive near-term tone following the reported gain. Further advances would be more convincing if supported by stronger export demand, tighter supply expectations or adverse crop developments. Comfortable inventories and heavy harvest supplies could reverse the move. 5. Agricultural Commodities Forecast for the Coming Sessions The agricultural outlook remains mixed, with oats and sugar under pressure while rice and corn are moving higher. These contrasting performances suggest that market direction will depend on individual crop fundamentals rather than a uniform trend across agricultural commodities. Three scenarios are relevant for the coming sessions: Bullish scenario: Rice and corn extend their gains if demand strengthens, export activity improves or supply estimates tighten. Oats and sugar could also recover if crop conditions deteriorate or new information points to reduced availability. Bearish scenario: Oats and sugar remain under pressure if supplies are comfortable and buyers show limited interest. Corn and rice could surrender their gains if harvest availability increases or export demand disappoints. Neutral scenario: Prices consolidate as market participants wait for clearer evidence from crop estimates, weather forecasts, harvest progress and trade data. Traders should monitor agricultural weather patterns, production forecasts, export sales, inventory estimates and changes in energy prices that may affect crop demand. These indicators will help determine whether the current price moves develop into more sustained trends. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The latest agricultural market snapshot shows a clear split between the weaker performance of oats and sugar and the modest gains in rice and corn. However, the percentage changes alone do not reveal whether the market is responding to a fundamental shift or short-term positioning. Oats and sugar warrant attention following their declines, but a sustained bearish outlook would require confirmation from supply data, demand indicators or improved production expectations. Rice and corn are showing positive momentum, although their gains will need support from export demand and favourable supply-demand balances. My outlook is selective and cautious. Corn and rice have a modestly constructive near-term bias, while oats and sugar remain vulnerable if selling pressure persists. The next directional moves will depend on weather, harvest developments, global trade flows and evidence of changing consumption rather than on a single market snapshot. Currency Hedger View Agricultural prices can influence food inflation, trade balances and currencies in economies that rely heavily on crop exports or food imports. Diverging crop prices may create different pressures across producing and consuming countries, making commodity trends relevant to businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about managing currency exposure. Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity prices can be volatile, and market conditions may change rapidly. Always conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Metals Commodities Forecast: Lithium Carbonate Slides 5.68% as Copper and Silicon Advance

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Metals markets are showing mixed performance, with lithium carbonate suffering a sharp decline while copper and silicon post modest gains. Lithium carbonate falls 5.68% in the reported market snapshot, substantially underperforming aluminum alloy and gold, which also trade lower. Copper rises 0.59%, while silicon gains 0.58%, pointing to differing supply-and-demand dynamics across industrial and precious metals. The divergence highlights the importance of assessing each market independently. Lithium remains sensitive to battery-sector demand, supply conditions and inventory adjustments, while copper is closely linked to industrial activity, electrification and manufacturing expectations. Gold, meanwhile, responds to movements in the US dollar, Treasury yields and demand for defensive assets. The coming sessions will test whether lithium's steep decline attracts fresh buying or signals continued weakness, while copper and silicon will need sustained demand to extend their gains. Metals Market Snapshot CommodityReported moveMarket directionLithium carbonate-5.68%Sharp declineAluminum alloy-0.52%LowerGold-0.31%Slightly lowerCopper+0.59%HigherSilicon+0.58%Higher Price changes reflect the supplied market snapshot and are not independently verified live quotes. 1. Lithium Carbonate Faces the Strongest Selling Pressure Lithium carbonate is the clear underperformer, falling 5.68% in the reported session. The size of the decline places battery-related raw materials under particular scrutiny, although the available update does not identify a specific catalyst for the move. Lithium prices are influenced by battery manufacturing demand, electric vehicle sales, energy-storage deployment, producer output, inventories and expectations for future supply. A sudden decline can reflect changing demand expectations, supply developments or position adjustments, but the daily move alone is insufficient to establish which factor is dominant. Looking ahead, the market will need to assess whether the decline attracts buyers at lower prices or develops into a more persistent downtrend. Signs of reduced producer supply, stronger battery orders or inventory drawdowns could help stabilise prices. Conversely, abundant availability and disappointing downstream demand would leave lithium vulnerable to further pressure. Forecast: The short-term outlook remains cautious following the sharp decline. A recovery would require evidence of stronger demand or tighter supply, while continued weakness in battery-sector purchasing could prolong selling pressure. 2. Copper Gains as Industrial Demand Expectations Remain in Focus Copper rises 0.59%, making it the strongest performer among the commodities listed. The metal is widely used in power infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, electric vehicles and renewable-energy systems, leaving its price sensitive to expectations for industrial growth. Copper's advance may indicate improved buying interest, but the supplied data does not establish whether the move reflects stronger physical demand, supply concerns or broader market positioning. China remains an important influence because of its role in global manufacturing and metals consumption. Expectations for industrial production, infrastructure investment and property-sector activity can influence the copper outlook. Mine disruptions and changes in inventories can also shift the balance between supply and demand. Forecast: Copper retains a cautiously constructive near-term bias while prices hold their recent gains. Further upside would be more convincing if supported by stronger industrial demand, falling inventories or evidence of tighter supply. Weak manufacturing activity or renewed concerns about China's economy could reverse the advance. 3. Silicon Advances as Industrial Materials Diverge Silicon gains 0.58%, moving higher alongside copper despite weakness in lithium carbonate and aluminum alloy. Silicon has applications across industrial manufacturing, chemicals, aluminum alloys and semiconductor-related supply chains, making demand conditions across several industries relevant to its outlook. The reported increase represents a positive session but does not, by itself, confirm a structural improvement in consumption. Production levels, inventories, energy costs and demand from downstream manufacturers can all affect pricing. The coming sessions will provide a clearer indication of whether the advance can attract further buying or whether it remains a short-term fluctuation within a broader market range. Forecast: The outlook is neutral to cautiously positive following the reported gain. Continued strength would require evidence of healthy downstream demand or tighter availability, while rising production and weak industrial consumption could limit further appreciation. 4. Aluminum Alloy Edges Lower Amid Mixed Industrial Metals Performance Aluminum alloy falls 0.52%, contrasting with the gains in copper and silicon. Aluminum-related markets are influenced by manufacturing demand, construction activity, energy costs, production capacity and inventories. The modest decline is less pronounced than the move in lithium carbonate, but it reinforces the mixed tone across industrial materials. Differences in end-use demand and supply conditions mean that industrial metals do not necessarily move together. A recovery in manufacturing and construction could support aluminum-related prices, while weak orders or elevated inventories would create headwinds. Energy prices also remain important because aluminum production is electricity-intensive. Forecast: Aluminum alloy has a neutral to cautious near-term outlook. A sustained improvement in industrial orders and production economics could support prices, while weak manufacturing demand may keep the market under pressure. 5. Gold Slips as Currency and Yield Conditions Remain Important Gold declines 0.31%, a relatively modest move compared with the drop in lithium carbonate. Unlike industrial metals, gold is strongly influenced by real interest rates, the US dollar, central-bank policy expectations and safe-haven demand. A stronger dollar or rising real yields can make gold less attractive to holders of other currencies and increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Conversely, falling yields, dollar weakness or heightened geopolitical and financial uncertainty can support demand for bullion. The latest decline alone does not establish a lasting change in the precious metal's outlook. The direction of US yields and the dollar will remain important in determining whether gold stabilises or experiences further selling. Forecast: Gold's near-term outlook remains data-dependent. Further weakness in the dollar or yields could support a recovery, while firmer yields and renewed dollar strength would increase downside pressure. 6. Metals Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The overall metals outlook remains mixed. Lithium carbonate is under significant pressure, aluminum alloy and gold are modestly lower, while copper and silicon are posting gains. This divergence suggests that commodity-specific fundamentals and demand expectations are more important than a single broad direction across the metals complex. Three scenarios are relevant for the coming sessions: Bullish scenario: Copper and silicon extend their gains if industrial demand expectations improve and supply conditions tighten. Lithium carbonate could also rebound if the sharp decline attracts buying and evidence emerges of stronger battery-sector demand or lower available supply. Bearish scenario: Lithium weakness persists if inventories remain high or downstream demand disappoints. Industrial metals could also come under pressure if manufacturing activity weakens, while gold may struggle if the dollar and real yields rise. Neutral scenario: Prices diverge further as each market responds to its own fundamentals, with copper and silicon consolidating their gains while lithium searches for support and gold tracks currency and yield movements. Traders should monitor Chinese industrial data, battery-sector demand, metal inventories, producer output and developments in the US dollar and Treasury yields. Confirmation from these indicators will be more useful than interpreting a single session's percentage changes as a lasting trend. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The latest metals snapshot highlights a clear divergence between battery-related materials, industrial metals and precious metals. Lithium carbonate's 5.68% decline is the standout move, while copper and silicon advance modestly. Aluminum alloy and gold register smaller losses. Lithium warrants particular attention because the size of its decline suggests a significant shift in the reported session, but the cause remains unclear from the available information. A sustained recovery will require evidence that demand is improving relative to supply, rather than simply a technical rebound after selling. Copper's gains are constructive, although the market will need stronger confirmation from industrial activity, inventories and Chinese demand. Silicon's advance similarly requires follow-through before it can be treated as a more durable trend. Gold remains a separate macroeconomic story, with the dollar and real yields likely to be more influential than industrial demand. My outlook is cautious and selective. The sharp lithium decline leaves the market vulnerable to further weakness, while copper and silicon have a more constructive short-term tone. However, the next directional moves will depend on confirmation from underlying fundamentals rather than the reported price changes alone. Currency Hedger View Diverging metals prices can signal changes in industrial demand, manufacturing conditions and broader investor sentiment. Copper and other industrial materials can influence expectations for resource-linked economies, while gold is often more sensitive to currency movements, real yields and demand for defensive assets. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about managing currency exposure. Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity prices can be volatile, and market conditions may change rapidly. Always conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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Energies

October 12, 2026

Energy Commodities Forecast: Heating Oil and Natural Gas Lead Losses as Oil Prices Weaken

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Energy commodity markets are showing mixed performance, with heating oil, US natural gas and crude oil leading losses, while European and UK natural gas contracts move higher. The divergence highlights a market responding to different regional supply conditions, fuel demand expectations and the outlook for energy availability. Heating oil records the steepest decline among the reported major energy movers, falling 2.51%, followed by US natural gas at 2.39%. Crude oil and Brent also trade lower, although their declines are more moderate. In contrast, UK and European natural gas futures post gains, suggesting that regional gas markets are responding to different pressures from those affecting US energy prices. The coming sessions will depend on whether weaker oil and US gas prices reflect a sustained improvement in supply expectations or whether changing weather conditions, geopolitical developments and disruptions to energy infrastructure trigger renewed volatility. Energy Market Snapshot CommodityReported moveMarket directionHeating oil-2.51%BearishUS natural gas-2.39%BearishCrude oil-0.80%LowerBrent crude oil-0.65%LowerUK natural gas+1.20%BullishEU natural gas+1.13%Bullish Price changes are based on the supplied market update and represent the reported snapshot, not a verified live quote. 1. Heating Oil Leads Energy Market Declines Heating oil falls 2.51%, making it the weakest performer among the commodities listed. As a refined petroleum product, heating oil is influenced by crude oil prices, refinery output, inventories, seasonal demand and the availability of distillate supplies. A decline in crude prices can reduce the cost of feedstock, but heating oil can move differently when refinery capacity, diesel demand or product inventories change. The latest decline therefore points to weakness in the reported session, rather than confirming a longer-term downward trend on its own. Looking ahead, traders will need to assess whether distillate supply remains comfortable and whether demand expectations strengthen as seasonal heating requirements approach in northern markets. Any disruption to refining or transportation could quickly reverse the current direction. Forecast: The near-term bias remains cautious while heating oil prices are falling. A sustained recovery in distillate demand or a tightening of inventories could provide support, while ample supply and weaker crude prices would increase downside pressure. 2. US Natural Gas Falls 2.39% US natural gas declines 2.39%, the second-largest loss in the reported energy group. Unlike oil, natural gas is particularly sensitive to weather forecasts, storage levels, domestic production, pipeline capacity and liquefied natural gas export demand. Milder-than-expected temperatures can reduce heating and cooling demand, while comfortable storage levels and strong production may place further pressure on prices. Conversely, a shift towards colder weather, unexpected production outages or stronger export demand could tighten the balance. The reported decline does not identify a specific catalyst, so it would be premature to attribute the move to any single factor. Market direction over the coming sessions will depend on updated weather forecasts, storage data and changes in supply expectations. Forecast: The outlook is neutral to cautious until a clearer demand or supply signal emerges. Persistent mild weather and ample inventories could extend losses, while colder forecasts or supply disruptions could trigger a rebound. 3. Crude Oil and Brent Extend Lower Crude oil falls 0.80%, while Brent declines 0.65%. The comparatively smaller losses suggest that the two benchmark markets are weakening, although the supplied snapshot does not establish whether the move reflects changes in supply expectations, demand forecasts or geopolitical risk premiums. Oil prices remain sensitive to production decisions, global economic growth, refinery demand, shipping conditions and developments affecting major producing regions. Expectations of additional supply can weigh on prices, but geopolitical tensions or disruption to critical transport routes may rapidly restore a risk premium. For the coming sessions, the distinction between actual supply changes and anticipated supply is important. Improved availability can pressure prices even before additional barrels reach the market, while unexpected disruptions can have the opposite effect. Forecast: Crude and Brent retain a cautious near-term bias following the reported declines. Further losses would be more convincing if supported by weaker demand expectations or evidence of greater supply. Escalating geopolitical risks or unexpected production interruptions could undermine the bearish outlook. 4. European and UK Natural Gas Move Higher UK natural gas rises 1.20%, while EU natural gas gains 1.13%, moving against the declines in US natural gas and oil. This divergence illustrates the regional nature of gas pricing. European and UK markets are influenced by storage availability, pipeline flows, LNG deliveries, competition for cargoes, weather forecasts and the security of energy infrastructure. US gas prices, by contrast, are more directly shaped by domestic production, local storage and North American weather conditions. Higher European prices do not necessarily indicate a global shortage. Regional gains may reflect local supply concerns or expectations about future demand even while US prices decline. Forecast: UK and European gas retain a cautiously constructive short-term bias following the reported gains. Whether the advance continues will depend on storage conditions, LNG availability, weather forecasts and any disruption to regional supply. Easing supply concerns could quickly reverse the move. 5. Energy Commodities Forecast for the Coming Sessions The broader energy outlook remains mixed rather than uniformly bearish. Heating oil, US natural gas, crude oil and Brent are lower, while European and UK gas prices are moving higher. This divergence suggests that traders should assess each market according to its own supply-and-demand fundamentals rather than treating the energy sector as a single trade. Three scenarios are particularly relevant: Bearish scenario: Oil and heating oil extend their declines if supply expectations improve, inventories remain comfortable and demand signals weaken. US natural gas could also remain under pressure if weather conditions reduce consumption and production stays strong. Bullish scenario: Energy prices rebound if geopolitical tensions disrupt production or transport, colder weather increases heating demand, or inventory data reveal tighter-than-expected supplies. European gas could remain particularly sensitive to changes in LNG availability and regional infrastructure risks. Neutral scenario: Prices consolidate if the current balance between supply and demand remains broadly unchanged. Regional gas markets may continue to diverge from oil and US natural gas as local conditions dominate price action. Over the coming sessions, traders should monitor oil inventory data, refinery operations, natural gas storage reports, weather forecasts and developments affecting energy transport routes. Without confirmation from these underlying indicators, a single session of gains or losses should not be treated as evidence of a sustained trend. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The latest energy snapshot points to a market in which regional fundamentals are becoming increasingly important. Heating oil and US natural gas are leading the declines, while crude benchmarks are moderately lower. Meanwhile, UK and European natural gas are rising, demonstrating that energy prices are not responding to a single common driver. For oil-related markets, the next directional move will depend on whether supply expectations continue to improve relative to demand. Heating oil will also require close monitoring of distillate inventories and seasonal consumption. In natural gas, weather and storage conditions are likely to remain decisive, with regional differences creating opportunities for divergent price performance. My outlook is cautious. The reported losses leave heating oil and US natural gas vulnerable to further weakness if supply remains ample, but the energy sector remains exposed to sudden reversals from weather changes, infrastructure disruptions and geopolitical developments. The stronger performance of European and UK gas reinforces the need for a market-by-market approach rather than a broad assumption that all energy prices will move together. Currency Hedger View Energy prices can influence inflation expectations, trade balances and currencies, particularly in economies that rely heavily on imported fuels or depend on energy exports. Divergent regional price movements can also create different pressures across markets, making it important for businesses to assess commodity exposure alongside foreign exchange risk. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about managing currency exposure. Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity prices can be volatile, and market conditions may change rapidly. Always conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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Banks

October 12, 2026

Euro: Bearish sentiment persists into year-end against US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the Euro (EUR) remains near recent lows around 1.1200 against the Dollar, pressured by fiscal and political concerns in the Euro area, especially France. IMM data show leveraged funds rebuilding short Euro positions. With no clear positive catalyst identified, MUFG warns the Euro remains vulnerable to further weakness heading towards year-end. Euro pressured by politics and positioning "The euro continues to trade close to recent lows at just above the 1.1200-level against the US dollar." "Heightened investor concerns over the fiscal and political risks in the euro area continue to weigh heavily on the euro and government bonds in the region particularly in France." "The latest IMM report provided confirmation that leveraged funds have been rebuilding short euro positions over the last couple of weeks to 6th October although they still below the year-to-date highs from the end of July." "At the current juncture, there is no obvious positive catalyst that could trigger a reversal of bearish sentiment towards the euro leaving it vulnerable to further weakness heading into year-end."

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Steel Price Forecast: Improving Margins Support Rebar as China’s Construction Demand Remains Weak

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Steel rebar futures are trading near CNY 3,100 per tonne, with lower spot coke prices providing some relief to Chinese steelmakers by reducing production costs and narrowing operating losses. The improvement could ease pressure on mills to cut output, offering near-term support to steel prices as the market assesses the impact of China’s latest economic support measures. However, the recovery remains constrained by subdued construction activity, a prolonged property market downturn and weak domestic consumption. Although Beijing is directing additional government financing towards local authorities and infrastructure spending, the extent to which this translates into stronger steel demand remains uncertain. The coming sessions will test whether improving production economics and policy support can stabilise prices, or whether persistent demand weakness continues to outweigh the benefits of lower input costs. Steel Market Snapshot Market factorCurrent outlookSteel rebar futuresTrading near CNY 3,100 per tonneProduction costsLower spot coke prices easing pressureSteelmaker profitabilityOnly 6.9% profitable at the end of SeptemberChinese policy supportCNY 550 billion in unused government debt quotas allocatedInfrastructure spendingPotential source of additional steel demandProperty sectorContinued weakness constraining construction activityOverall outlookCautious, with near-term stabilisation possible 1. Lower Coke Prices Improve Steelmakers’ Margins Falling spot coke prices are helping Chinese steel producers reduce input costs and narrow operating losses. This offers some relief to an industry that has faced persistent pressure from weak demand and shrinking margins. If cost pressures continue to ease, steelmakers may have less incentive to reduce production aggressively. That could help stabilise rebar supply and support prices in the near term. However, lower production costs alone cannot guarantee a sustained recovery. The industry remains financially vulnerable, with only 6.9% of Chinese steelmakers reportedly profitable at the end of September. Unless selling prices, demand or operating efficiency improve further, producers may still need to limit output to manage losses. The key question is whether improved margins will be sufficient to encourage mills to maintain production without creating additional supply in an already subdued market. 2. China’s CNY 550 Billion Support Measures Offer Potential Demand Relief China has allocated CNY 550 billion, equivalent to approximately $82 billion, in unused government debt quotas to strengthen local government finances and support infrastructure spending. The measures form part of wider efforts to support economic activity amid weak consumption and investment. Infrastructure projects could provide an important source of steel demand, particularly if funding translates into new construction activity and faster project implementation. Nevertheless, the market will need to distinguish between the announcement of additional financing and its actual impact on steel consumption. The timing of spending, the types of projects funded and the pace of implementation will determine how much additional demand reaches steel producers. A sustained improvement in infrastructure activity would provide a stronger foundation for steel prices than temporary relief from lower raw material costs. 3. Property Market Weakness Continues to Weigh on Steel Demand China’s prolonged property market downturn remains a major obstacle to a sustained steel recovery. Sluggish construction activity continues to limit demand for rebar, which is widely used in buildings and infrastructure. Weak consumption and investment also make it more difficult for the market to absorb additional steel output. Even if lower coke prices improve production economics, limited orders from construction-related sectors could leave producers struggling to maintain profitable operations. The resulting tension between production costs and end-user demand is central to the market outlook. If construction activity remains subdued, steelmakers may continue to face pressure to reduce output despite lower input costs. For a more convincing bullish outlook, the market needs evidence that infrastructure investment and broader economic support are generating measurable improvements in steel orders. 4. Technical Outlook: Steel Rebar Holds Near CNY 3,100 Steel rebar futures are trading near CNY 3,100 per tonne, a useful reference point for assessing whether prices can stabilise as production costs ease. A sustained recovery would require follow-through buying and stronger evidence that demand is improving. The available market information does not establish precise technical support or resistance levels, so these should be verified against a current futures chart before being used for trading decisions. Bullish scenario: Rebar prices strengthen if lower coke costs continue to improve steelmaker margins and China’s infrastructure spending generates additional orders. A sustained move above the current trading area, supported by stronger demand, would improve the near-term outlook. Bearish scenario: Prices come under renewed pressure if construction activity remains weak, steel orders disappoint and producers continue to cut output in response to poor profitability. Additional supply without a corresponding demand recovery could also limit price gains. Neutral scenario: Prices consolidate around current levels if improving margins and policy support offset, but do not overcome, persistent weakness in property-related demand. 5. Steel Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook for steel rebar is cautiously neutral. Lower coke prices are helping reduce production costs, while China’s additional government financing offers potential support for infrastructure-related demand. These factors could help prices stabilise around the CNY 3,100 area. However, the underlying demand picture remains challenging. The property downturn, sluggish construction activity and limited steelmaker profitability continue to restrict the potential for a sustained recovery. Over the coming sessions, market participants should monitor changes in coke prices, steel production decisions, construction demand and the implementation of infrastructure spending. Evidence of stronger project activity and improved steel orders would strengthen the case for a recovery. Conversely, continued weak demand could force producers to maintain output restrictions and would leave prices vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. For now, improving margins provide a degree of support, but a durable bullish trend will depend on demand rather than cost relief alone. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets China’s steel market is showing tentative signs of stabilisation as lower coke prices improve production economics. However, better margins should not be confused with a full recovery in the sector. The key issue remains the relationship between supply and end-user demand. If steelmakers maintain production because input costs have fallen, but construction activity fails to improve, the market could continue to struggle with excess supply and limited pricing power. China’s CNY 550 billion allocation provides a potential source of support, particularly if local government financing translates into infrastructure projects that require steel. The effectiveness of the measures will depend on how quickly funding reaches the real economy and whether it offsets weakness in the property sector. My outlook is cautiously neutral. Steel prices may find short-term support as margins improve, but stronger infrastructure demand and better steelmaker profitability will be needed to establish a more sustainable recovery. Until those improvements become visible, rallies are likely to face resistance from the industry's structural demand challenges. Currency Hedger View Steel prices offer an important signal of Chinese industrial activity, infrastructure investment and broader commodity demand. A sustained recovery could improve sentiment towards industrial commodities and some resource-linked currencies, while continued weakness in construction and manufacturing may weigh on the wider outlook. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about managing currency exposure. Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity prices can be volatile, and market conditions may change rapidly. Always conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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Banks

October 12, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI measures support gains against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Charlie Lay note that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has unveiled a broad package of tools to stabilise the Indian Rupee (INR), including a special Dollar facility for oil importers, tighter FX derivatives rules, and higher reserve requirements. They argue these steps should curb Dollar demand, tighten INR liquidity and help prevent a disorderly USD/INR spike after recent gains. RBI widens toolkit to stabilise Rupee "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly announced several measures to support the INR, targeting dollar demand from oil importers, FX derivatives activity and elevated domestic liquidity." "To moderate dollar demand from oil imports in the open market, RBI opened a special USD facility for state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) to meet their daily dollar requirements." "RBI also tightened rules on FX derivatives. It reduced the threshold for FX derivative transactions without a documented underlying asset to USD5mn from USD100mn and prohibited dealers from re-booking cancelled INR derivative transactions." "Additionally, RBI introduced the Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve (FERR), requiring 20% of the notional value of each FX derivative transaction above USD2mn to be held with the central bank." "The measures should raise the cost of FX hedging, curb dollar demand and drain INR liquidity, providing near-term support to the INR and putting downward pressure on forward premiums." "Overall, the latest measures should contain a disorderly sell-off in INR. We could see a pullback in USD/INR near term after climbing to the 97.60 area in the past few weeks."

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Iron Ore Price Forecast: Chinese Restocking Hopes Support Prices as Supply Risks Persist

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Iron ore prices are attempting to stabilise after reaching four-year lows, with futures recovering towards CNY 690 per tonne as Chinese steelmakers prepare to replenish raw material inventories following an extended holiday. The expected return of mills to the spot market could provide near-term support, particularly if lower coke prices help reduce production costs and slow steel output cuts. However, the recovery remains fragile. Rising global shipments, persistent weakness across China's steel industry and limited profitability among steelmakers continue to challenge the demand outlook. The coming sessions will test whether restocking can generate a sustained rebound or merely provide temporary relief within a broader weak market. Iron Ore Market Snapshot Market factorCurrent outlookIron ore futuresRecovering towards CNY 690 per tonneRecent price trendRebound from four-year lowsChinese steel demandPotential near-term support from restockingSteelmaker profitabilityOnly 6.9% of Chinese steelmakers profitable at September-endRaw material costsLower coke prices easing pressure on mill marginsGlobal supplyRising shipments potentially limiting price gainsOverall outlookCautious, with a potential short-term recovery 1. Chinese Steel Mill Restocking Offers Near-Term Support Expectations of renewed purchasing by Chinese steelmakers are helping underpin iron ore prices. Following an extended holiday, more mills are expected to return to the spot market to replenish inventories and secure the raw materials required to maintain production. This restocking could improve immediate demand and support a recovery from the recent four-year lows. However, the strength and duration of the move will depend on whether steelmakers make substantial purchases or simply cover short-term operational requirements. A return to the market does not necessarily signal a broader recovery in China's steel consumption. If restocking remains limited to essential inventory replacement, the resulting demand may be insufficient to absorb additional global supply. 2. Lower Coke Prices Ease Pressure on Steelmakers Lower spot coke prices are providing some relief to Chinese steel producers by reducing input costs and helping narrow operating losses. If this improvement continues, mills may have less incentive to cut production aggressively. A slower pace of production reductions could support iron ore consumption in the near term. Nevertheless, the impact depends on whether lower raw material costs translate into improved steelmaking margins and more sustainable output. The latest profitability figures underline the sector's difficulties. With only 6.9% of Chinese steelmakers profitable at the end of September, the industry remains under considerable financial pressure. Lower coke prices may ease the burden, but they do not independently resolve weak steel demand or excess capacity concerns. 3. Rising Global Shipments Limit the Recovery Supply remains a significant obstacle to a sustained increase in iron ore prices. Mining companies are increasing shipments during the fourth quarter to meet quarterly and annual production and delivery targets. If these additional cargoes arrive while Chinese steel demand remains subdued, the market could face renewed pressure from an imbalance between available supply and consumption. The timing of these shipments will be important. Stronger Chinese buying could temporarily absorb additional material, but continued increases in exports would make it more difficult for prices to sustain a meaningful recovery without a corresponding improvement in steel production and end-user demand. 4. Technical Outlook: Can Iron Ore Hold Its Recovery? Iron ore futures are recovering towards CNY 690 per tonne after last week's four-year lows. This level is an immediate reference point for assessing whether the rebound can attract further buying, although a sustained move higher would require confirmation from price action and stronger demand signals. The precise support and resistance levels should be verified against a current futures chart rather than inferred from the available market report. Bullish scenario: Iron ore extends its recovery if Chinese steelmakers return to the spot market in greater numbers, restocking demand strengthens and lower coke prices help stabilise mill production. A sustained move above the CNY 690 area would strengthen the case for further near-term gains. Bearish scenario: Prices resume their decline if restocking proves short-lived, steelmaker profitability remains weak and rising global shipments outpace consumption. A failure to maintain the recent recovery would leave the market vulnerable to renewed tests of its recent lows. Neutral scenario: Prices consolidate if restocking provides a temporary demand boost but fails to overcome persistent weakness in the Chinese steel sector and increasing global supply. 5. Iron Ore Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is cautiously neutral, with a modest recovery possible as Chinese steelmakers replenish inventories after the holiday period. Lower coke prices could also help reduce the pressure on mills and limit further production cuts. However, the market still needs evidence that buying activity is translating into stronger underlying demand. Inventory replenishment alone may offer only temporary support, particularly if steelmakers continue to face weak margins and miners maintain elevated shipment levels. Over the coming sessions, traders should monitor Chinese spot-market purchases, steel production trends, coke prices and export shipments from major mining regions. A stronger combination of restocking and improving steel-sector profitability would make the recovery more convincing. Conversely, continued supply growth alongside weak mill economics would reinforce downside risks. For now, iron ore may find short-term support around its recovery towards CNY 690 per tonne, but a durable bullish trend remains unconfirmed. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Iron ore is showing signs of stabilisation, but the recovery is being driven primarily by expectations of renewed Chinese purchasing rather than clear evidence of a structural improvement in demand. The key distinction for the market is between restocking and sustained consumption. Restocking can generate a short-term increase in spot buying, yet the effect may fade quickly if steelmakers remain unprofitable and final demand fails to improve. Lower coke prices offer some encouragement because they can ease production costs and reduce the need for further output cuts. Nevertheless, rising global shipments create a competing force that could limit the benefit of any demand recovery. My outlook is therefore cautious. Iron ore could extend its rebound in the coming sessions if Chinese mills replenish inventories more aggressively than expected. For a more durable recovery, however, the market will need stronger evidence of improving steel-sector economics and demand capable of absorbing additional supply. Currency Hedger View Iron ore remains sensitive to the balance between Chinese industrial demand, steelmaker profitability and global mining supply. A sustained recovery in Chinese restocking could support commodity sentiment, while persistent weakness in steel production and rising shipments may weigh on prices and influence currencies linked to the resource sector. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more about managing currency exposure. Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity prices can be volatile, and market conditions may change rapidly. Always conduct independent research and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.

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Banks

October 12, 2026

Equities: Stable oil and yields support stock gains – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports that European and US equities ended Friday higher, with many indices near record levels, supported by broadly sideways yields and Oil prices. The bank stresses this is not a classic cyclical rally, as stabilising Oil has aided consumer sectors, and argues that a further Oil decline could extend equity gains, particularly for energy‑sensitive consumer names. Consumer sectors benefit from oil pause "Equities ended Friday higher in both Europe and the US, with many indices close to all-time highs. More importantly, last week showed that yields and oil do not necessarily need to fall for equities to advance." "Asian equities are mixed this morning, with some renewed hesitation around AI and technology, while US and European equity futures are higher." "Despite considerable volatility in rates, oil and energy headlines, their broadly sideways direction was sufficient to support stocks, while implied bond volatility gradually eased." "Leadership was equally instructive: this was not a classic cyclical rally. Instead, stabilising oil prices supported consumer staples and consumer discretionary, two sectors that have struggled since the outbreak of the war in Iran, while enthusiasm for AI and capex themes was more subdued." "A meaningful decline in oil would likely provide further upside for equities, but investors should not automatically assume traditional cyclical leadership. Consumer sectors, which have borne much of the pressure from higher energy prices, could be among the main beneficiaries."

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Banks

October 12, 2026

Brent: Houthi escalation keeps risk premium elevated – Commerzbank

Commerzbank strategists note that Brent Oil remains above USD 100 as markets weigh heightened geopolitical risk from Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. While early Asian trading saw prices slip below USD 104, they stress that repeated strikes on Riyadh’s main airport raise the risk of US involvement and further disruption to Persian Gulf energy flows. Middle East tensions underpin Oil prices "Brent crude oil prices edged up 0.4% to USD 104.72 last Friday and gained 2.4% for the week." "The dominant story over the weekend and the one most likely to set the tone for Asian markets this morning was the sharp escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia." "The attacks are the fourth on Riyadh’s main airport in a single week, raising the risk of a dangerous escalation that could draw in the US and further disrupt energy flows from the Persian Gulf." "In early Asian trading today, Brent crude oil prices erased earlier gains to fall 1.1% to below USD104 per barrel." "Brent crude oil held firmly above USD 100 per barrel, underpinned by persistent Middle East supply risk."

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Banks

October 12, 2026

Euro: Downside risks toward 1.1145 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD closed near 1.1200 after a volatile session that failed to generate fresh directional clues. For the day, they expect a 1.1180–1.1230 range. On a 1–3 week horizon, they retain a mildly negative stance, seeing a chance of a test of 1.1145 while capping rebounds below 1.1255 strong resistance. Mildly negative bias with capped rebounds "24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR rebounded and closed at 1.1209 last Thursday. On Friday, when it was at 1.1215, we indicated that “the recovery could extend but with no clear increase in upward momentum, any advance is likely to stay within a 1.1190/1.1240 range.” EUR subsequently rose to 1.1243, declined to 1.1187 before settling at 1.1201 (-0.07%). The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, EUR could trade between 1.1180 and 1.1230." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on EUR about one month ago (see annotations in the chart below). In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (08 Oct, spot at 1.1200), we highlighted that “downward momentum remains lackluster.” However, we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test 1.1145.” EUR has not been able to make much headway on the downside since then, but we will maintain our view as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1255 (level previously at 1.1265) continues to hold."

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Wheat Price Forecast: Futures Hit Two-Month Low as Black Sea Ceasefire Hopes Shift Supply Outlook

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Wheat prices have fallen below $6.70 per bushel, reaching their lowest level since August 18, as hopes for a potential Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire prompt traders to reassess Black Sea supply risks. US President Donald Trump has announced that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Kyiv is awaiting further details, leaving the scope and implementation of any agreement uncertain. The prospect of reduced disruption in the Black Sea region is weighing on wheat prices because Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports. However, the market remains exposed to uncertainty over shipping conditions, export availability and the extent to which any ceasefire could lead to broader de-escalation. At the same time, Asian wheat millers are reportedly shortening their purchasing horizons as prices rise and supply uncertainty persists. For the coming sessions, wheat is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Black Sea, international buying activity and confirmation of export flows. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest contextWheat futuresBelow $6.70 per bushelRecent lowLowest level since August 18Key geopolitical developmentReported Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire agreementGlobal supply exposureRussia and Ukraine account for more than 25% of global wheat exportsAsian demandSome millers are limiting forward purchasesMain price driversBlack Sea shipping, export availability and global buying demandNear-term outlookCautious, with risks in both directions 1. Black Sea Ceasefire Hopes Weigh on Prices The possibility of a Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire has introduced a new variable into the wheat market. Traders are assessing whether the reported agreement could reduce regional tensions and eventually improve the reliability of agricultural exports from the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers to international wheat markets, making developments in the region particularly important for importers across the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Any improvement in shipping access, port operations or export confidence could reduce the risk premium previously associated with supply disruptions. However, the announcement concerns an energy ceasefire, and it should not automatically be interpreted as confirmation that agricultural exports, ports or shipping routes will return to normal. Zelenskyy's statement that Ukraine is awaiting details, together with the need for confirmation from Moscow, leaves important questions unanswered. For wheat prices, the decisive factor will be whether diplomatic progress produces measurable improvements in export availability. Until that becomes clearer, the market may continue to react sharply to political announcements and subsequent clarifications. 2. Asian Millers Reduce Forward Purchasing Some wheat millers in Southeast and South Asia are reportedly covering their requirements only through December or buying closer to delivery rather than securing supplies further ahead. This shorter purchasing horizon reflects the challenge of managing costs when prices are elevated and future availability remains uncertain. Buyers may prefer to delay commitments in the hope that prices decline, but this strategy also leaves them exposed if supply disruptions intensify or replacement cargoes become more expensive. Reduced forward purchasing can limit immediate demand in the futures and physical markets, adding to downward pressure on prices. However, it does not necessarily mean that underlying consumption has weakened. If millers are postponing rather than cancelling purchases, demand could return when inventories need replenishing. The market will therefore need to distinguish between genuinely weaker consumption and a temporary shift in procurement timing. 3. Global Supply Remains Vulnerable to Black Sea Disruptions Despite the recent price decline, wheat supply risks have not disappeared. The Black Sea remains a strategically important export region, and any renewed escalation could disrupt shipping, increase freight and insurance costs or delay deliveries. If a ceasefire leads to a sustained improvement in regional security, buyers may become more confident that wheat exports can continue with fewer interruptions. That could ease concerns about global availability and reinforce the bearish case. Conversely, if negotiations stall or military activity disrupts export infrastructure, traders may quickly restore a geopolitical risk premium. Prices could recover even if forward purchasing by Asian millers remains cautious. The market's direction will depend on the balance between expectations of improved supply and evidence of actual export continuity. 4. Import Demand and Price Sensitivity International wheat demand will also influence the next move. When prices are high, millers and importers may delay purchases, draw on existing inventories or seek alternative origins. Such behaviour can temporarily weaken demand for new cargoes. However, a decline in prices could encourage buyers to return to the market and replenish stocks. This creates the possibility that falling futures prices eventually stimulate fresh demand, particularly if importers believe the market has become more attractive. For traders, monitoring purchasing activity, export offers and shipment schedules will be important in determining whether the current weakness represents a sustained change in market fundamentals or a temporary adjustment in buying patterns. Technical Outlook: Wheat Below $6.70 Wheat has fallen below $6.70 per bushel, reaching its lowest reported level since August 18. This provides a reference point for assessing near-term price action, but verified current chart data would be required to establish additional support, resistance and momentum levels. Bearish scenario: Prices could remain under pressure if ceasefire expectations improve, Black Sea export flows become more reliable and Asian millers continue delaying forward purchases. Sustained trading below $6.70 would be consistent with this weaker outlook, although further downside would need confirmation from current price action. Bullish scenario: Wheat could rebound if the ceasefire fails to produce tangible progress, Black Sea shipping risks intensify or importers return to the market to replenish inventories. Renewed disruption to export availability could quickly outweigh the effect of cautious buying. Neutral scenario: Prices could consolidate as traders wait for confirmation of the ceasefire's terms and clearer evidence on physical supply. In this environment, diplomatic statements and export updates may drive short-term volatility without establishing a lasting trend. Wheat Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is cautious, with a modest bearish bias while ceasefire expectations and subdued forward purchasing weigh on prices. However, the decline below $6.70 does not by itself confirm that the market has entered a sustained downward trend. Three developments will be particularly important over the coming sessions: Ceasefire confirmation: Clear details and evidence of implementation could reduce the geopolitical risk premium, while a breakdown in negotiations could reverse that effect. Black Sea export flows: Evidence of reliable shipments and fewer logistical disruptions would support the bearish case. Renewed interruptions could push prices higher. Asian purchasing activity: Continued delays in forward buying may weigh on prices, whereas renewed procurement and inventory replenishment could provide support. Overall, wheat remains vulnerable to further weakness if supply expectations improve and importers remain cautious. Nevertheless, the importance of Russia and Ukraine to global exports means that geopolitical developments can rapidly change the outlook. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Wheat prices are responding to a shift in expectations rather than confirmation that Black Sea supply risks have been resolved. The reported energy ceasefire has encouraged traders to consider the possibility of reduced regional disruption, while shorter purchasing horizons among Asian millers are limiting immediate demand. The key question is whether these developments translate into sustained improvements in physical supply. A diplomatic announcement may change market sentiment quickly, but reliable shipping and confirmed export availability are more important for establishing a lasting price trend. For now, the balance of risks is cautiously bearish below $6.70 per bushel. However, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, and any renewed disruption to Black Sea exports could trigger a sharp recovery. Currency Hedger View Wheat prices are influenced by global supply, freight costs, energy markets and geopolitical developments. For grain traders, food manufacturers and importers, these changes can affect procurement budgets and the cost of international payments. Currency fluctuations can add another layer of uncertainty when purchases are priced in US dollars but revenues are earned in other currencies. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more. Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, legal or financial advice. Agricultural commodity prices can be volatile, and geopolitical developments may cause rapid price movements. Forecasts and scenarios are not guarantees of future performance. Market figures and reported developments reflect the supplied report and should be verified against current data before publication or use in trading decisions. Always conduct independent research and assess your risk tolerance before making financial decisions.

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Markets

October 12, 2026

XAG/USD holds gains near $61 amid Russia-Ukraine ceasefire

Silver price holds gains near $61.10 as US President Trump confirms Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. 10-year US Treasury Yields have come under pressure due to lower oil prices. Investors shift their focus to the US CPI data scheduled for Wednesday. Silver price (XAG/USD) trades higher at around $61.10 in the Asian trade on Monday, holding onto Friday’s gains. The white metal reflects strength as United States (US) bond yields have come under pressure due to a decline in oil prices in the wake of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, announced by President Donald Trump. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is down 2% to near $89.00. 10-year US Treasury Yields remained lower to near 5.24% from its over two-decade high of 5.36% on Friday. US bond markets are closed on Monday due to Columbus Day. Theoretically, the scenario of correction in US bond yields provides relief to non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Over the weekend, US President Trump announced through a post on Truth Social that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an energy ceasefire, a temporary agreement in which both parties agree to stop attacking energy facilities. Ukraine had been excessively attacking Moscow’s energy infrastructure to curtail its funding. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote. The Russia-Energy energy ceasefire provides some relief for global markets at a time when energy supplies have remained extremely tight due to Middle East tensions. This came after US President Trump stated on Friday that he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Russia to supply diesel in stages. Meanwhile, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday. Silver Technical Analysis In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $61.02, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.07. The metal has retreated from recent highs and now trades under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting rallies are likely to face selling interest while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44 stays in neutral-to-soft territory, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than oversold exhaustion. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $62.07, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the way for a more sustained recovery. In the absence of nearby technical support levels from the provided indicators, the focus remains on how price reacts to this moving average, with failure to reclaim it likely to keep XAG/USD vulnerable to further downside probes toward prior price lows on the chart.

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Energies

October 12, 2026

Heating Oil Price Forecast: Fuel Supply Hopes Weigh on Prices as Energy Risks Persist

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets US heating oil prices remain under pressure below $4.60 per gallon as traders weigh the prospect of increased fuel supplies against continuing geopolitical risks to global energy markets. Expectations of additional diesel supplies from Russia, a possible Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire and calls for governments to accelerate fuel releases are easing some supply concerns. However, the outlook remains uncertain. Renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure and tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten critical energy routes, while efforts to restore offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Isaias could influence near-term supply expectations. For the coming sessions, heating oil is likely to remain sensitive to developments in Russian fuel exports, Middle Eastern security and the pace of recovery in US energy production. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest contextUS heating oilBelow $4.60 per gallonNear-term price pressureExpectations of increased fuel suppliesRussia–UkraineEnergy ceasefire claim awaits further confirmationRussian fuelPotential diesel supplies and temporary US sanctions reliefMiddle EastAttacks and tanker incidents pose supply risksUS Gulf of MexicoOffshore production recovery remains in focusOverall outlookCautious, with risks in both directions 1. Russian Fuel Supply Expectations Weigh on Heating Oil Heating oil has come under renewed pressure as traders assess the possibility that more diesel could reach international markets. President Donald Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he is awaiting further details and Russia has yet to comment. The market is also assessing Trump's earlier statement that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, alongside the US administration's temporary easing of sanctions on Russian fuel. If these measures translate into additional, deliverable supplies, they could ease competition for middle distillates and reduce the risk premium embedded in heating oil prices. However, announcements alone do not guarantee a sustained increase in exports. Traders will need confirmation of the arrangements, shipment volumes and actual delivery schedules before treating the additional supply as established. 2. IEA Calls for Additional Diesel Supplies International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol has urged governments to accelerate planned diesel releases and consider measures to increase available supplies. Such steps could help alleviate short-term tightness if inventories and distribution networks can deliver fuel to the regions that need it. For heating oil, the impact will depend on the volume released, the timing of deliveries and whether additional supply offsets disruptions elsewhere. The market may therefore respond more strongly to confirmed stock releases and export data than to policy statements alone. Evidence of improving availability would reinforce the bearish case, while delays or smaller-than-expected releases could limit further price declines. 3. Middle East Security Keeps a Risk Premium in Play The prospect of greater fuel availability is being counterbalanced by renewed strikes on Saudi civilian infrastructure and reported tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a critical route for global energy shipments. Any escalation that disrupts shipping, raises insurance costs or delays deliveries could quickly reverse the market's supply-driven weakness. Heating oil may be particularly sensitive to a combination of tighter middle-distillate availability and rising crude oil prices. Even if Russian supplies increase, traders could reassess the outlook if attacks spread, tanker movements are interrupted or regional producers face operational disruption. The key distinction for the coming sessions is whether additional supply can reach the market faster than geopolitical risks restrict existing flows. 4. Gulf of Mexico Production Recovery Energy producers in the Gulf of Mexico are working to restore offshore output after Hurricane Isaias made landfall. The pace of recovery will help determine whether the storm creates a lasting supply shortfall or only a temporary disruption. A faster return to normal production would support the view that supply conditions are improving, adding to the pressure on heating oil. A slower recovery, particularly if accompanied by logistical problems or further severe weather, could provide a degree of support. Traders will be watching for updates on restored production, infrastructure damage and any continuing interruptions to transport or refining operations. Technical Outlook: Heating Oil Below $4.60 Heating oil remains below $4.60 per gallon, keeping the near-term tone cautious. However, without verified current chart data, specific support and resistance levels cannot be established reliably. The $4.60 area should be treated as a reference point from the supplied market report, rather than a confirmed technical barrier. Bearish scenario: Prices could extend their decline if Russian fuel shipments are confirmed, government diesel releases accelerate and Gulf of Mexico production returns without major complications. Continued trading below $4.60 would be consistent with this supply-driven pressure, although further weakness would need confirmation from price action. Bullish scenario: Heating oil could rebound if attacks on energy infrastructure or shipping disrupt regional flows, Russian supply commitments fail to materialise, or US offshore production recovery proves slower than expected. A sustained move back above $4.60 would warrant attention, but would not alone confirm a broader trend reversal. Neutral scenario: Prices could consolidate while traders wait for clearer evidence on Russian exports, the proposed ceasefire, diesel availability and the restoration of US production. Heating Oil Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term bias remains cautious to bearish while the prospect of greater fuel availability dominates market sentiment. The combination of potential Russian diesel supplies, proposed stock releases and recovering Gulf of Mexico production could ease supply concerns and leave prices vulnerable to further losses. Nevertheless, the outlook is far from one-sided. The reported energy ceasefire has yet to be fully clarified, and Middle Eastern security risks could quickly outweigh the benefits of additional supplies. The market is likely to react to confirmation of physical shipments and production recovery rather than announcements alone. Over the coming sessions, three developments will be especially important: Russian fuel flows: Confirmation of export volumes and delivery schedules would strengthen the case for lower prices. Middle East security: Any disruption to tanker traffic or energy infrastructure could trigger a rapid recovery. US production recovery: Evidence that Gulf of Mexico output is returning to normal would reduce concerns about regional supply constraints. Unless supply improvements are confirmed and geopolitical risks ease, heating oil may remain volatile, with a downward bias that could be interrupted by sudden risk-driven rallies. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Heating oil is caught between the prospect of improving supply and the risk of renewed energy-market disruption. The latest announcements have encouraged traders to price in a more comfortable supply outlook, but the distinction between promised and delivered fuel remains important. A sustained decline would be more credible if Russian diesel shipments increase, government releases progress and US production normalises. Conversely, renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz or Saudi energy infrastructure could quickly change the balance. For now, the market outlook leans bearish, but confidence in that direction depends on tangible evidence of improving supply. Traders and businesses should remain alert to sharp reversals as new information emerges. Currency Hedger View Heating oil is influenced by more than its own supply and demand. Changes in crude oil prices, shipping costs, geopolitical risk and the US dollar can affect energy-market pricing and the cost of international fuel purchases. Businesses exposed to cross-border energy payments should consider both commodity-price volatility and the currency risk attached to their transactions. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit CurrencyHedger.com to learn more. Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, legal or financial advice. Commodity prices can be volatile, and geopolitical developments may cause rapid price movements. Forecasts and scenarios are indicative, not guarantees of future performance. Always conduct independent research and assess your risk tolerance before making financial decisions.

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Energies

October 12, 2026

US Gasoline Price Forecast: Fuel Prices Ease as Supply Hopes Clash with Energy Security Risks

arket Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets US gasoline prices are moving towards $3.20 per gallon as traders assess the prospect of improved fuel availability following claims of an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies, alongside the temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian fuel, have raised hopes that pressure on global fuel markets could moderate. However, the outlook remains uncertain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he is awaiting details of the reported agreement, while Russia has yet to comment, leaving questions over its implementation. At the same time, renewed strikes on Saudi infrastructure, tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and efforts to restore offshore US oil production following Hurricane Isaias are creating competing supply risks. The near-term outlook for US gasoline is therefore mixed. Improved fuel availability could keep prices under pressure, but disruptions to crude production, refining or shipping could interrupt the decline. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest outlookUS gasoline pricesMoving towards $3.20 per gallonMain bearish influenceExpectations of improved fuel availabilityRussia–Ukraine energy ceasefireReported by Trump; details and implementation remain uncertainRussian fuel suppliesPotential additional diesel supplyIEA positionExecutive Director Fatih Birol urged accelerated diesel releasesMiddle East riskRenewed infrastructure strikes and tanker attacksUS Gulf of MexicoOffshore producers working to restore output after Hurricane IsaiasOverall outlookMixed, with supply and geopolitical risks in focus Figures and developments reflect the supplied report. Current gasoline prices, the status of the reported ceasefire and the latest production and shipping updates should be verified before publication. 1. Russia–Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Claims Raise Supply Expectations The prospect of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has influenced fuel-market sentiment, with traders assessing whether it could reduce the risk of further disruption to energy infrastructure. President Donald Trump has claimed that an agreement took immediate effect. However, Zelenskiy's reported request for further details and the absence of a Russian response in the supplied report mean that the terms and practical implications remain unclear. If the arrangement leads to fewer attacks on energy facilities, it could reduce the risk of supply interruptions and ease some of the uncertainty priced into energy markets. A durable agreement could also improve expectations for the movement of fuel through international markets. Nevertheless, a political announcement is not equivalent to a verified and functioning agreement. Traders will need confirmation from the parties involved and evidence that the arrangement is being implemented. Market implication: Credible progress towards an energy ceasefire could reduce geopolitical pressure on gasoline prices. Uncertainty over the agreement's terms leaves scope for volatility if expectations are disappointed. 2. Russian Diesel Supplies Could Ease Fuel-Market Pressure Expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies are another factor weighing on energy prices. Trump reportedly said Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, while his administration temporarily eased US sanctions on Russian fuel. If additional volumes reach buyers, they could improve the availability of refined products and reduce pressure in markets already concerned about fuel shortages. The International Energy Agency's Executive Director, Fatih Birol, has also urged governments to accelerate planned diesel releases and consider increasing supplies. These developments could improve short-term availability, but the impact on US gasoline is not necessarily direct. Diesel and gasoline are different refined products, and their prices respond to distinct demand patterns, refinery yields, inventories and regional supply conditions. The effect on gasoline will depend on the wider energy complex, including crude oil prices, refinery operations and the availability of gasoline inventories. What to watch: Confirmation of Russian diesel shipments, changes in sanctions policy, government stock releases and updated data on US gasoline inventories and refinery utilisation. 3. Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Infrastructure Risks Remain Significant Despite expectations of improved fuel supplies, renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining concerns about regional energy security. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for international energy shipments. Any prolonged disruption to tanker movements could increase transportation costs, delay deliveries and lift crude oil prices. Higher crude costs could then feed into gasoline prices, depending on refining margins and domestic supply conditions. Damage to Saudi infrastructure could also affect market sentiment if traders become concerned about production or export capacity. However, the extent of any price reaction will depend on whether the reported attacks have caused measurable disruption. Security incidents can raise risk premiums even without an immediate loss of supply, but sustained price increases generally require a continuing threat or tangible market impact. Market implication: A material disruption to regional oil flows could reverse some of the downward pressure on gasoline prices, even if additional diesel supplies become available elsewhere. 4. Hurricane Isaias and the Recovery of Gulf of Mexico Production US Gulf of Mexico producers are reportedly working to restore offshore output following Hurricane Isaias. The speed of the recovery will be important for crude supply expectations. If production returns quickly and infrastructure remains operational, the event's impact on the wider energy market could be temporary. Longer restoration times or further operational difficulties could tighten crude availability and add upward pressure to fuel prices. For gasoline, the effects will depend on how changes in offshore production interact with refinery operations, crude inventories, imports and consumer demand. It is also important to distinguish crude production from gasoline production. Offshore crude output does not translate immediately into additional gasoline supply; crude must be transported, processed and distributed before it reaches consumers. What to watch: Official production-restoration updates, refinery utilisation, crude inventories and US gasoline stock changes. 5. Technical Outlook: Gasoline Prices Approach $3.20 US gasoline prices are moving towards $3.20 per gallon as traders respond to the prospect of improved fuel availability. The supplied report does not specify the exact gasoline benchmark or provide a technical chart. The $3.20 area should therefore be treated as a reported price reference rather than a confirmed support or resistance level. Key levels and signals $3.20 per gallon: The immediate reference area. Continued weakness around this level would suggest that expectations of improved supply remain influential. Recent session low: A break below the latest low could indicate that selling pressure is extending. The precise level should be confirmed using the relevant gasoline contract. Recent rebound high: A sustained move above the latest rebound high would suggest that buyers are responding more strongly to supply or geopolitical risks. Bearish scenario Gasoline prices continue to weaken as additional fuel supplies become more likely, Russian diesel deliveries are confirmed and energy ceasefire developments reduce concerns about infrastructure disruption. A faster recovery in Gulf of Mexico production could add to the downward pressure. Bullish scenario Prices rebound if tanker attacks disrupt energy transportation, Saudi infrastructure damage affects supply or offshore US production takes longer than expected to recover. A sharp rise in crude oil prices could also support gasoline, particularly if refined-product inventories tighten. Neutral scenario Gasoline prices consolidate around current levels as traders weigh supply improvements against the risk of further disruption. In this scenario, prices remain sensitive to political announcements, inventory data and production updates without establishing a sustained direction. 6. US Gasoline Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is mixed, with a modest downward bias while traders anticipate improved fuel availability. However, the range of supply risks means the market could reverse quickly if physical disruptions become more significant. Near-term outlook: Gasoline prices may remain under pressure towards the $3.20 area if expectations of additional fuel supply are reinforced by confirmed deliveries, improving production and stable shipping conditions. Bullish catalyst: Further tanker attacks, material disruption to Saudi energy infrastructure, delays in restoring Gulf of Mexico production or a sharp recovery in crude prices could push gasoline higher. Bearish catalyst: Confirmation of additional Russian diesel supplies, progress towards an implemented energy ceasefire, increased government fuel releases and a faster recovery in US production could extend the decline. Key event risk: The market will be particularly sensitive to confirmation of the Russia–Ukraine arrangement and evidence of whether recent attacks have affected actual energy flows. For the coming week, the main question is whether improved supply expectations translate into greater physical availability before geopolitical or weather-related disruptions tighten the market again. Traders should focus on confirmed changes in inventories, production and deliveries rather than political announcements alone. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Gasoline prices are being influenced by a competition between improving supply expectations and persistent energy security risks. The prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies and the potential for an energy ceasefire have encouraged a more relaxed view of fuel availability. However, the reported agreement remains subject to clarification, and the relationship between diesel supply and US gasoline prices is indirect. At the same time, attacks affecting Saudi infrastructure and tanker movements near the Strait of Hormuz highlight the potential for regional events to disrupt the broader energy complex. The recovery of offshore US production following Hurricane Isaias adds another variable to the supply outlook. My outlook is cautiously bearish while gasoline prices move towards $3.20 per gallon, provided additional supplies become available and there is no material disruption to crude production, refining or shipping. A sustained decline would be more convincing if confirmed by improving inventories and stable refinery operations. Conversely, evidence of disrupted energy flows could quickly change the balance and prompt a rebound. For the coming sessions, the focus should remain on the difference between expected supply and confirmed supply. That distinction is likely to determine whether the current weakness extends or gives way to renewed volatility. Currency Hedger View Gasoline-price movements can affect transport operators, airlines, logistics providers, manufacturers and other businesses exposed to fuel costs. For companies that purchase fuel internationally, commodity-price changes can combine with foreign exchange movements to affect budgets, operating margins and payment obligations. Monitoring energy markets alongside currency movements can help internationally active businesses assess these exposures and plan for changes in procurement costs. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity futures and foreign exchange products carry significant risk, and losses may exceed expectations. Market levels and forecasts are conditional scenarios and may change as new information becomes available. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Rises Above $4,200 as US Inflation Data Takes Centre Stage

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Gold prices have climbed above $4,200 per ounce, extending gains for a third consecutive session as lower oil prices help ease concerns about inflation. Expectations that additional Russian diesel supplies could improve fuel availability have weighed on energy prices, potentially reducing pressure on inflation and complicating the outlook for interest rates. However, the broader market environment remains uncertain. Renewed security concerns in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets, while upcoming US inflation figures could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Gold is therefore approaching an important test. Continued moderation in inflation and expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy could support further gains, while stronger-than-expected price data and rising bond yields could limit the rally. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest outlookGold priceAbove $4,200 per ounceRecent price actionThird consecutive session of gainsMain supportive factorLower oil prices and easing inflation concernsKey macroeconomic eventUpcoming US inflation dataFederal Reserve outlookSensitive to inflation and interest-rate expectationsGeopolitical riskElevated amid renewed Middle East tensionsMain upside riskLower yields, a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demandMain downside riskStrong inflation data and higher Treasury yields Market details reflect the supplied report. Current spot prices, Treasury yields and US dollar movements should be checked against live data before publication. 1. Lower Oil Prices Could Support Gold Through the Inflation Outlook The decline in oil prices is helping shape the near-term outlook for gold. Expectations that Russia could provide additional diesel supplies have raised the prospect of improved fuel availability, potentially reducing pressure on energy costs. Lower energy prices can moderate headline inflation and ease concerns that central banks will need to maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer. If investors consequently anticipate lower interest rates, gold may benefit because it does not pay interest and becomes relatively more attractive when yields on competing assets decline. However, the relationship is not automatic. A decline in oil prices may reduce inflation concerns, but the effect on gold will depend on how bond yields, the US dollar and expectations for Federal Reserve policy respond. The reported Russian supply arrangements also require confirmation. If additional supplies fail to materialise, or energy prices recover because of geopolitical developments, inflation expectations could rise again. Market implication: Continued weakness in oil could support gold if it contributes to lower real yields or expectations of a less restrictive Federal Reserve. The effect may be limited if Treasury yields remain elevated. 2. US Inflation Data Is the Main Near-Term Catalyst Investors are looking ahead to US inflation figures for fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's next policy move. The data could influence gold through several channels. Softer-than-expected inflation may strengthen expectations that monetary policy can become less restrictive, potentially putting downward pressure on Treasury yields and the US dollar. That combination would generally be supportive for bullion. Conversely, stronger inflation could reinforce concerns that interest rates will need to remain higher for longer. If yields and the dollar rise in response, gold could come under renewed pressure despite its recent gains. The market reaction will depend not only on the headline inflation reading but also on underlying price pressures and whether the figures materially change expectations for future policy. What to watch: Whether headline inflation shows further moderation. Whether core inflation remains persistent. How US Treasury yields respond to the release. Whether the US dollar strengthens or weakens after the data. Any resulting change in expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. For gold traders, the direction of yields and the dollar following the release may be just as important as the inflation figure itself. 3. Middle East Tensions Continue to Support Safe-Haven Demand Geopolitical uncertainty remains a potential source of support for gold. The supplied report states that Saudi Arabia's main airport was targeted again by Iran-backed Houthi militants, following an earlier strike that reportedly caused 12 deaths and more than 300 injuries. It also reports that President Donald Trump was considering possible retaliatory action alongside Saudi Arabia. Any escalation involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, Yemen or the United States could increase demand for assets perceived as defensive. Gold often benefits when investors seek protection against geopolitical uncertainty, although the strength and duration of that response vary with market conditions. At the same time, reports of potential diplomatic engagement and efforts to ease tensions could reduce some of the risk premium if they lead to tangible de-escalation. The key distinction is whether developments remain political headlines or begin to affect regional security, energy supplies and broader financial-market confidence. Market implication: Further escalation could reinforce gold's safe-haven appeal, while credible de-escalation could reduce one source of support. The reaction will also depend on the prevailing direction of US yields and the dollar. 4. Gold's Relationship With the US Dollar and Treasury Yields The US dollar and Treasury yields remain central to the outlook for gold. Gold is priced internationally in US dollars, so a weaker dollar can make bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies and potentially support demand. A stronger dollar can have the opposite effect. Treasury yields also influence gold's relative attractiveness. Because bullion does not generate interest income, rising real yields can increase the opportunity cost of holding it. Falling real yields can reduce that disadvantage. This creates two broad scenarios for the coming sessions: Supportive environment: Softer inflation data, lower real yields and a weaker dollar could help gold extend its recovery above $4,200. Restrictive environment: Strong inflation data, rising yields and a firmer dollar could trigger profit-taking and push prices back below the $4,200 reference level. These relationships are not guaranteed to dominate every session, particularly when geopolitical developments drive demand for safe-haven assets. 5. Technical Outlook: Gold Tests the $4,200 Region Gold has moved above $4,200 per ounce after three consecutive sessions of gains. This level now serves as an important near-term reference for assessing whether the recovery can continue. The supplied report does not provide a verified technical chart or recent swing highs and lows, so more precise support and resistance targets would be speculative. Key levels and signals $4,200 per ounce: The immediate psychological reference. Sustained trading above this area would help preserve the recent positive momentum. Recent session low: A break below the latest pullback low would suggest that buyers are losing control of the short-term move. The exact level should be confirmed against current price data. Recent rally high: A sustained break above the latest high would provide stronger evidence that the recovery is extending. Bullish scenario Gold holds above $4,200 and extends its gains as softer US inflation data puts downward pressure on yields and the dollar. Continued geopolitical uncertainty could reinforce demand, especially if investors increase defensive allocations. Bearish scenario Gold falls back below $4,200 as inflation data exceeds expectations and Treasury yields rise. A stronger dollar could add further pressure, with traders potentially taking profits after the three-session advance. Neutral scenario Bullion consolidates around $4,200 as investors balance inflation expectations against geopolitical risks. In this scenario, the market waits for the US data and the subsequent reaction in yields and the dollar before establishing a clearer direction. 6. Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions Gold's near-term outlook is cautiously constructive while prices remain above $4,200, but the upcoming US inflation release could quickly change the balance. Near-term outlook: Gold may attempt to extend its recovery if energy-price weakness contributes to softer inflation expectations and the dollar remains under pressure. However, the recent gains could attract profit-taking if the data fails to support expectations of easing price pressures. Bullish catalyst: Softer-than-expected US inflation, declining real yields, a weaker dollar or a significant deterioration in geopolitical conditions could support additional gains. Bearish catalyst: Stronger inflation, rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar or a reduction in safe-haven demand could trigger a pullback. Key event risk: The market's reaction to US inflation data is likely to be the main near-term driver. Traders should monitor the release alongside real yields, the dollar and any material changes in geopolitical risk. The central question for the coming week is whether gold can maintain its advance above $4,200 as investors reassess the inflation outlook. A favourable combination of softer inflation and lower yields could extend the rally, while a renewed rise in yields would make the recovery more vulnerable. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Gold's latest advance reflects the interaction between inflation expectations, interest-rate pricing and geopolitical uncertainty. Lower oil prices may help ease inflation concerns, but the implications for bullion depend on whether that translates into lower real yields and a softer US dollar. The upcoming US inflation figures are therefore particularly important. A softer reading could strengthen the case for a less restrictive policy outlook and help sustain gold's gains. A stronger reading could have the opposite effect, especially if it pushes Treasury yields higher. Geopolitical developments provide another layer of uncertainty. Further escalation could support safe-haven demand, but that influence may compete with movements in the dollar and yields rather than determine prices on its own. My outlook is cautiously bullish while gold holds above $4,200 per ounce, provided the dollar and real yields do not rise materially. A sustained move higher would be more convincing if supported by softer inflation data and declining yields. Conversely, a break back below $4,200 following a stronger inflation reading would warn that the current recovery is losing momentum. For the coming sessions, the priority is to assess how inflation data changes the expected path of monetary policy rather than assume that three consecutive sessions of gains guarantee a continuation. Currency Hedger View Gold prices can influence investor positioning, commodity-related businesses and currencies exposed to changes in global risk sentiment. Meanwhile, movements in the US dollar can affect the cost of gold purchases and international transactions for businesses operating across multiple currencies. For companies with cross-border revenues, costs or commodity exposures, monitoring foreign exchange and wider macroeconomic developments together can help provide a more complete view of financial risk. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity futures and foreign exchange products carry significant risk, and losses may exceed expectations. Market levels and forecasts are conditional scenarios and may change as new information becomes available. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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Energies

October 12, 2026

European Gas Prices Hover Near 4-Week High

European natural gas prices fell below €81/MWh on Monday, having risen to a four-week high earlier as increased tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating regional tensions heightened concerns over the security of LNG supplies. The strait handles around 20% of global LNG trade before the war. Despite a steady rise in European gas inventories in recent weeks, storage facilities are around 73% full, still below year-ago levels. However, this recovery could be threatened by forecasts of cooler autumn temperatures, which may lead to an earlier start to the heating season and increase gas consumption. Last week, European gas network operators said the system was flexible enough to meet winter demand but warned that limited supplies could push storage below 30% by winter’s end, increasing vulnerability to late-season cold snaps. Meanwhile, President Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire effective immediately, easing some concerns across the energy market.

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Energies

October 12, 2026

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Russian Diesel Supply Hopes Weigh on Prices as Middle East Risks Escalate

arket Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Crude oil prices are moving towards $90 per barrel as expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies weigh on energy markets, interrupting a two-session rally. Hopes that Moscow could partially ease restrictions on fuel exports have raised the prospect of improved global product availability, potentially reducing pressure on refined fuel markets. However, the outlook remains complicated by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Further attacks involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants have heightened concerns about regional security, while reported diplomatic contacts between Saudi Arabia and Iran could offer a channel for de-escalation. The market is therefore balancing two competing forces: the possibility of improved fuel supply and the risk that a wider regional confrontation could disrupt energy infrastructure or shipping routes. For the coming sessions, the direction of crude oil will depend heavily on whether supply expectations improve faster than geopolitical risks deteriorate. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest outlookCrude oil pricesMoving towards $90 per barrelRecent price actionDecline following a two-session rallyRussian diesel supplyReported potential for additional suppliesRussia–Ukraine energy ceasefireReported agreement; implementation requires confirmationSaudi ArabiaFurther reported airport attackMiddle East riskElevated geopolitical uncertaintyMain bearish driverExpectations of improved fuel availabilityMain bullish riskEscalation affecting regional energy supply or transport This snapshot reflects the supplied report. The precise crude benchmark, current price and status of the reported political and military developments should be verified against current reporting before publication. 1. Russian Diesel Supply Expectations Weigh on Energy Prices The prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies is putting downward pressure on energy prices as traders assess whether the reported agreement could ease global fuel shortages. US President Donald Trump reportedly said his administration had reached an agreement for Russia to provide hundreds of thousands of tonnes of diesel fuel, suggesting a possible partial easing of Moscow's export restrictions. He also claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire. If additional Russian diesel reaches international markets, it could improve the availability of refined products and ease pressure on diesel prices. The potential effect on crude oil is more indirect, as crude and refined products have different supply-and-demand balances. Improved diesel availability could reduce concerns about tight fuel markets and weaken some of the risk premium embedded in energy prices. However, the market will need confirmation of the agreement's terms, the volumes involved, delivery schedules and whether restrictions have actually been relaxed. Market implication: Confirmed additional supplies could weigh on refined fuel prices and contribute to softer crude sentiment, particularly if broader demand expectations remain unchanged. 2. Middle East Escalation Keeps a Geopolitical Risk Premium in Focus The latest reported attack targeting Saudi Arabia's main airport has added another source of uncertainty to the energy outlook. The supplied report states that the attack followed an earlier strike that killed 12 people and injured more than 300. It also indicates that the US administration is considering possible retaliatory action against the Houthis in Yemen. Any escalation involving Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iran or the United States could increase concerns about the security of regional infrastructure and energy transportation. Saudi Arabia is a major participant in global oil markets, so threats to its facilities or export logistics can quickly influence market sentiment. Nevertheless, geopolitical tension does not automatically lead to higher oil prices. The market's reaction will depend on whether events threaten actual production, exports, shipping or critical infrastructure, rather than simply increasing political uncertainty. What to watch: Further attacks, official statements on potential military action, disruptions to regional shipping and any evidence of damage to energy infrastructure. 3. Saudi–Iran Diplomatic Contacts Could Limit the Upside Reports that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi contacted his Saudi counterpart to discuss regional developments and de-escalation efforts introduce a potential counterweight to the heightened security risks. Diplomatic engagement could help contain tensions if it leads to concrete steps to prevent further attacks or reduce the risk of a broader confrontation. For energy markets, even tentative signs of de-escalation can reduce the geopolitical risk premium when traders believe the probability of supply disruption is declining. However, diplomatic communication alone does not guarantee a reduction in risk. The market will need to assess whether the contacts produce measurable changes in the security environment. The immediate outlook remains sensitive to headlines, leaving crude oil vulnerable to sharp movements in both directions as traders respond to new developments. 4. Crude Oil Supply Expectations Versus Geopolitical Risk The oil market is facing a conflict between potentially improving fuel availability and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. On the bearish side, additional Russian diesel supplies could ease product-market tightness and reduce concerns about fuel shortages. If the reported agreement is implemented and deliveries increase, the market may place less emphasis on supply scarcity. On the bullish side, further escalation in the Middle East could threaten regional energy infrastructure or transportation routes. Any credible evidence of a disruption to oil production or exports would have a more direct impact on crude supply expectations than diplomatic statements alone. The distinction between crude oil and diesel is important. Additional diesel supplies may ease pressure in refined-product markets, but the effect on crude prices will depend on refinery demand, inventories, product margins and the wider balance between global oil supply and consumption. For now, neither a sustained sell-off nor a renewed rally is assured. Confirmation of supply changes and the scale of geopolitical risks will be critical in determining the next directional move. 5. Technical Outlook: $90 Becomes a Key Psychological Reference Crude oil prices are moving towards $90 per barrel after the recent two-session rally ended. This level is an important psychological reference, but the supplied report does not identify the specific crude benchmark or provide verified technical support and resistance levels. Key levels and signals $90 per barrel: The immediate psychological reference. Continued trading below this level could reinforce bearish sentiment, while a sustained recovery above it would suggest that buyers are regaining some control. The latest session low: A break below the current session's low could indicate that selling pressure is extending. The exact level should be confirmed using the relevant futures contract. The recent rally high: A move back above the latest rally high would indicate a stronger recovery and suggest that geopolitical concerns are once again influencing price action. Bearish scenario Crude oil remains under pressure as traders anticipate additional Russian diesel supplies and a possible reduction in fuel-market tightness. If diplomatic contacts also reduce concerns about a wider Middle East confrontation, prices could remain below $90 and extend their decline. Bullish scenario Prices recover as regional tensions escalate, retaliatory action becomes more likely or concerns emerge about disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping. A sustained move above $90 would improve the short-term technical picture, particularly if supported by evidence of a direct threat to supply. Neutral scenario Oil trades around the $90 area as traders balance improved fuel-supply expectations against geopolitical uncertainty. In this scenario, prices may react sharply to headlines without establishing a sustained trend. These are conditional scenarios rather than confirmed technical signals. More precise targets require current benchmark-specific price data. 6. Crude Oil Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook is mixed, with a modest bearish bias while the market focuses on the possibility of additional Russian diesel supplies. However, geopolitical risks remain substantial enough to limit confidence in a sustained decline. Near-term outlook: Crude oil may remain under pressure towards the $90 area if expectations of improved fuel availability continue to dominate. The extent of any further decline will depend on whether the reported Russian supply arrangements are confirmed and implemented. Bullish catalyst: Further attacks, an escalation involving the United States or regional powers, or credible evidence of disrupted production, exports or shipping could trigger a rapid recovery in oil prices. Bearish catalyst: Confirmation of additional Russian diesel deliveries, a meaningful reduction in fuel-market tightness or diplomatic progress that lowers regional security concerns could extend the current weakness. Key event risk: Developments involving Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Houthis could rapidly change the balance of market expectations. Traders should distinguish between political announcements and confirmed changes to physical supply. For the coming week, the critical question is whether improved fuel availability becomes tangible before geopolitical tensions create a more direct threat to energy supply. Until that balance becomes clearer, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Crude oil is being pulled between supply optimism and geopolitical risk. The prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies offers a potential reason for lower energy prices, but the market should not assume that reported political agreements will translate immediately into additional physical deliveries. At the same time, renewed attacks involving Saudi Arabia and the Houthis highlight the vulnerability of the regional security environment. If the situation escalates to threaten energy infrastructure or export routes, the resulting risk premium could quickly offset the bearish effect of improved fuel availability. My outlook is cautious with a modest bearish bias while crude oil moves towards $90 per barrel, provided that the Russian supply expectations are confirmed and no material disruption to regional energy flows occurs. However, this is a headline-sensitive market. A direct supply disruption could change the outlook rapidly, making a straight-line bearish forecast inappropriate. Traders should focus on confirmed supply developments, the status of regional security and the market's reaction around the $90 reference level. The next directional move is likely to depend less on the announcements themselves and more on whether they produce measurable changes in physical supply or the risk of disruption. Currency Hedger View Oil-price movements can affect fuel importers, airlines, transport companies, manufacturers and businesses exposed to energy-related costs. Changes in crude prices can also influence inflation expectations, trade balances and currencies of major energy exporters and importers. For international businesses, commodity-price volatility can interact with foreign exchange movements to create additional uncertainty around procurement costs, operating margins and cross-border payments. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity futures and foreign exchange products carry significant risk, and losses may exceed expectations. Market levels and forecasts are conditional scenarios and may change as new information becomes available. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Soybean Price Forecast: Higher US Supplies Weigh on Futures as China Production Outlook Tightens

| Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Soybean futures are under pressure below $12.90 per bushel, reaching a one-week low as the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlook points to higher production and larger ending stocks for the 2026/27 season. The revisions reinforce expectations of ample US supplies, although stronger export projections provide a partial offset. The international picture is more mixed. China has lowered its forecast for domestic soybean production, citing reduced planted area and lower-than-expected yields. This divergence between a more abundant US supply outlook and tighter Chinese production expectations could create regional differences in price performance over the coming sessions. The near-term outlook for US soybean futures remains cautious, with attention turning to export demand, Chinese buying activity and whether the latest supply estimates have already been reflected in prices. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest outlookSoybean futuresBelow $12.90 per bushelRecent price actionOne-week lowUSDA US yield forecast53.1 bushels per acreUS production forecast4.56 billion bushelsUS ending stocks forecast315 million bushelsUS export forecastRaised by 10 million bushelsUSDA season-average farm price$12.00 per bushelChina soybean production forecast20.36 million tonnesChange in China's production forecastReduced by 590,000 tonnes Figures are based on the supplied report summary. Current futures prices and updated production estimates should be verified before publication. 1. Higher US Production Adds to Supply-Side Pressure The main bearish influence on US soybean futures is the USDA's upward revision to its production outlook for the 2026/27 season. The agency increased its yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8 in September, lifting projected production to 4.56 billion bushels from 4.535 billion. Although the revision is relatively modest, it adds to the volume of soybeans expected to enter the US market. The USDA also raised projected ending stocks to 315 million bushels from 310 million. Larger inventories can reduce immediate supply concerns and give processors, exporters and other buyers greater flexibility over purchasing schedules. When production and ending stocks rise together, the market generally needs stronger demand to prevent additional supply from weighing on prices. Market implication: Unless export demand accelerates or new supply risks emerge, the higher US production outlook could limit the upside potential for soybean futures. 2. Export Demand Provides a Partial Offset The USDA has increased its US soybean export forecast by 10 million bushels. The revision suggests that demand prospects have improved enough to absorb some of the additional production. However, the increase in exports has not prevented futures from falling, indicating that the market remains focused on the broader supply balance. Actual export sales, shipment volumes and purchasing activity from major importers will be important in determining whether demand can keep pace with the larger crop. China will remain particularly important because changes in its purchasing patterns can influence global soybean trade flows and price expectations. If export performance exceeds the revised forecast, prices could find support. If shipments disappoint, the combination of higher production and larger ending stocks could become more significant. The USDA's season-average farm price estimate remains unchanged at $12 per bushel. This suggests that the agency has retained its broader price assessment despite the upward revisions to production and inventories. 3. China's Lower Production Forecast Complicates the Global Outlook China's Agriculture Ministry has reduced its 2026/27 soybean production forecast by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes. The revision reflects lower-than-expected planted area and yields. The reduction introduces a contrasting supply signal. While US production expectations have increased, China's domestic crop outlook has weakened, potentially increasing its reliance on imported soybeans if domestic demand remains firm. Higher production costs and rising global prices are also supporting China's new-crop soybean market, according to the supplied report. However, lower domestic Chinese production does not automatically translate into stronger international soybean prices. The eventual impact will depend on import demand, crushing margins, domestic inventories, alternative feed ingredients and the competitiveness of supplies from the United States, Brazil and other producing countries. What to watch: Chinese import purchases, US export sales, South American crop prospects and changes in the relative prices of competing origins. 4. Global Supply and Demand: A Market Pulled in Two Directions The soybean market is facing two opposing forces. In the United States, higher yields and larger projected inventories point towards a more comfortable supply balance. In China, lower expected production introduces a potential source of import demand, although the scale of any additional purchases remains uncertain. This divergence may increase the importance of trade flows in setting prices. If Chinese buyers increase purchases of US soybeans, export demand could help offset the larger US crop. If purchases remain subdued or shift towards alternative suppliers, US futures could remain vulnerable. The market will also need to consider developments in South American production. Expectations for Brazil and Argentina can influence forward pricing well before their crops reach the market, particularly when buyers compare availability and prices across origins. For now, the evidence provided by the latest USDA revisions favours caution, but the international demand picture prevents the outlook from being uniformly bearish. 5. Technical Outlook: Soybeans Remain Under Pressure Below $12.90 Soybean futures have fallen below $12.90 per bushel and reached a one-week low. The immediate technical question is whether prices can stabilise around current levels or whether selling pressure will extend further. Key levels and signals $12.90 per bushel: The immediate reference level. A sustained recovery above it would suggest improving short-term momentum, although it would not by itself confirm a broader bullish reversal. Recent one-week low: The nearest downside reference. A decisive break below this low would strengthen the bearish technical picture. Demand and inventory revisions: Further increases in ending stocks or disappointing export data could reinforce downside pressure, while stronger buying could help prices recover. The supplied report does not provide the exact one-week low or a verified technical support and resistance map. Additional price targets are therefore not assigned here. Traders should confirm current contract-specific levels before using them for execution or risk management. Bearish scenario Soybean futures remain below $12.90 as the market focuses on higher US production and ending stocks. If export demand fails to accelerate and Chinese purchases do not provide a meaningful offset, prices could test the recent low and extend their decline if that level breaks. Bullish scenario Prices recover above $12.90 as stronger export sales, increased Chinese import demand or concerns over global crop availability improve sentiment. A sustained recovery would be more convincing if supported by evidence that demand is absorbing the additional US supply. Neutral scenario Futures consolidate around current levels as traders weigh larger US inventories against China's reduced production forecast. In this scenario, the market waits for fresh trade and crop data before establishing a clearer direction. 6. Soybean Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The short-term outlook remains cautious, with US supply revisions likely to remain the main influence on futures. However, China's lower domestic production estimate introduces a potential source of support that could limit the depth of any decline. Near-term outlook: Soybean futures may remain under pressure while trading below $12.90 per bushel. The market could experience temporary rebounds, particularly if export demand strengthens or Chinese buying expectations improve, but a sustained recovery would require confirmation that demand is keeping pace with supply. Bullish catalyst: Stronger-than-expected US export sales, increased Chinese import demand or deteriorating production prospects elsewhere could help support prices. Bearish catalyst: Further increases in US supply estimates, higher ending stocks or weaker export performance could extend the current decline. Key market focus: Traders should monitor US export commitments, Chinese purchasing activity, South American crop expectations and any changes to USDA supply-and-demand projections. The central issue for the coming week is whether stronger international demand can offset the increase in US availability. Until clearer evidence emerges, the balance of risks remains tilted towards consolidation or further downside rather than an immediate sustained rally. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Soybeans are entering a period in which the difference between production and demand expectations is likely to determine the direction of prices. The USDA's higher yield, production and ending-stock estimates create a clear supply-side headwind for US futures. The increase in exports is constructive, but its relatively modest scale means the market still needs stronger evidence that demand can absorb the additional crop. China's lower domestic production forecast complicates the picture. It may support import requirements, but the implications for US prices depend on where China sources its soybeans, the strength of domestic consumption and the competitiveness of alternative exporters. My outlook is cautious while soybean futures remain below $12.90 per bushel. A recovery is possible if Chinese demand strengthens or US export performance improves, but the market needs confirmation rather than relying solely on the reduction in China's production forecast. For the coming sessions, the key signals are export demand, inventory expectations and the relationship between US and international prices. These factors should provide a clearer indication of whether the current weakness develops into a deeper correction or gives way to a more stable trading range. Currency Hedger View Soybeans are an important global agricultural commodity, with price movements affecting food manufacturers, livestock producers, processors, importers and exporters. Changes in international soybean prices can also influence purchasing costs and margins for businesses trading across currencies. For companies sourcing agricultural commodities internationally, both commodity-price volatility and foreign exchange movements can affect the final cost of transactions. Monitoring these risks together can help businesses assess their exposure and plan payment requirements. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity futures and foreign exchange products carry significant risk, and losses may exceed expectations. Market levels and forecasts are conditional scenarios and may change as new information becomes available. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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Markets

October 12, 2026

Corn Price Forecast: USDA Raises Production Outlook as Rising Stockpiles Pressure Futures

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Corn futures remain under pressure below $4.90 per bushel as the market absorbs a more bearish US Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlook for the 2026/27 season. Higher yield expectations, increased production and rising projected ending stocks are reinforcing concerns that US supplies could remain abundant, limiting the potential for a sustained price recovery. Although the USDA has raised its export forecast, the upward revision to production is larger than the improvement in projected demand. Attention is now turning to the pace of the US harvest, incoming Midwest weather conditions and whether export demand can absorb the additional supply. The near-term outlook remains cautious to bearish, with weather-related harvesting delays offering a potential source of temporary support. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest outlookCorn futuresBelow $4.90 per bushelRecent price actionMore than 4% decline in the previous sessionUSDA yield forecast181.2 bushels per acreUS production forecastApproximately 16.03 billion bushelsProjected ending stocks1.849 billion bushelsExport forecast3.3 billion bushelsSeason-average farm price forecast$4.70 per bushelUS harvest progress23% complete as of October 4Five-year average harvest progress27% Figures are based on the supplied USDA October report summary. Futures prices and updated crop estimates should be checked against current market data before publication. 1. Higher US Production Reinforces the Bearish Outlook The main pressure on corn prices comes from the USDA's upward revision to its production estimates for the 2026/27 season. The agency raised its projected yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, compared with 178.5 bushels in September. This adjustment lifts estimated US production to approximately 16.03 billion bushels and strengthens expectations of a well-supplied domestic market. Higher yields are particularly important because they increase the amount of corn available without requiring an expansion in planted acreage. When production rises faster than demand, prices generally face downward pressure as buyers gain greater flexibility over purchasing decisions. The increase in projected ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels adds to this concern. Larger inventories provide a buffer against supply disruptions and can reduce the urgency for buyers to secure supplies immediately. Market implication: Unless export demand strengthens materially or crop conditions deteriorate, abundant US availability is likely to remain a headwind for corn futures. 2. Stronger Export Expectations Offer Limited Relief The USDA has raised its US corn export forecast by 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, indicating an improved demand outlook. Stronger exports could help absorb part of the additional production and prevent inventories from rising even further. Demand from major importers, international price competitiveness and the availability of alternative suppliers will therefore remain important variables for the market. However, the improved export outlook has not been sufficient to offset the increase in expected production. The overall balance remains consistent with a relatively comfortable supply environment. For a more sustained recovery, the market will likely need evidence that actual export sales and shipments are keeping pace with the higher forecast. Any disappointment in demand could reinforce the bearish effect of larger stockpiles. 3. Harvest Progress and Midwest Weather Could Create Short-Term Volatility US corn harvesting was 23% complete as of October 4, below the five-year average of 27%. The slower pace may provide temporary support if wet conditions disrupt fieldwork or delay the movement of newly harvested corn into the market. Rain is expected to return to parts of the Plains and Midwest during October 12–16, potentially slowing harvesting operations and affecting the timing of farmer selling. However, a slower harvest does not automatically imply a smaller crop. If the expected production remains intact, weather-related delays may shift the timing of supply reaching the market rather than materially change the overall balance. The market will therefore need to distinguish between temporary logistical disruption and a genuine deterioration in crop prospects. What to watch: Updated harvest progress, regional rainfall forecasts, crop-condition assessments and the pace at which farmers deliver grain to the market. 4. Lower USDA Farm Price Forecast Signals Supply Pressure The USDA has reduced its season-average farm price forecast to $4.70 per bushel from $4.80. The reduction reinforces the agency's expectation that increased availability will weigh on prices during the marketing year. It also highlights the challenge facing the market: stronger exports may help absorb additional supply, but they may not be sufficient to prevent pressure on average prices. For traders, the key question is whether the market has already incorporated the more comfortable supply outlook into current futures prices. If the latest production estimates prove accurate and demand remains steady rather than accelerating, rallies could attract selling interest. Conversely, stronger-than-expected export demand, adverse weather or a deterioration in crop estimates could prompt short-covering and a recovery from recent lows. 5. Technical Outlook: Corn Futures Remain Vulnerable Below $4.90 Corn futures are trading below $4.90 per bushel following a sharp decline to a seven-week low. The recent move places the focus on whether prices can stabilise or whether selling pressure will extend into the coming sessions. Key levels and signals $4.90 per bushel: An important near-term reference level. A sustained recovery above it would indicate improving price stability, although further confirmation would be needed to establish a stronger bullish reversal. Recent seven-week low: The immediate downside reference. A decisive break below this low would strengthen the bearish technical picture, while a failure to extend lower could encourage short-covering. Supply and demand balance: Price action will remain sensitive to new information on production, inventories, export demand and harvest conditions. No precise downside support target is assigned here because the supplied data does not identify the exact seven-week low. Traders should confirm current contract-specific chart levels before setting entry points or risk limits. Bearish scenario Corn futures remain below $4.90, while the market continues to price in higher US production and abundant ending stocks. If export demand fails to exceed expectations and harvesting progresses without significant disruption, selling pressure could persist. A break below the recent seven-week low would increase the risk of further weakness. Bullish scenario Prices recover above $4.90 and hold those gains as short-covering develops. Strong export sales, renewed international demand or weather-related harvesting delays could provide additional support. A sustained recovery would become more convincing if accompanied by evidence that demand is absorbing the larger projected crop. Neutral scenario Corn consolidates around current levels as traders balance bearish supply fundamentals against the possibility of temporary harvest delays. In this scenario, the market waits for fresh confirmation from export data, harvest progress and weather forecasts before establishing a clearer direction. 6. Corn Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, with the USDA's higher production and ending-stock estimates providing the dominant fundamental influence. Near-term outlook: Corn futures may remain under pressure while prices trade below $4.90 per bushel. The recent sharp decline could also leave room for intermittent rebounds as traders take profits on short positions, but such moves may struggle to develop into a sustained recovery without stronger demand evidence. Bullish catalyst: Better-than-expected export sales, stronger international demand or significant weather disruption that delays harvest operations could help stabilise prices and encourage a rebound. Bearish catalyst: Confirmation of the larger crop, further increases in inventory expectations or weaker-than-expected export demand could renew selling pressure and expose the recent lows. Key event risk: The expected return of rain across parts of the Plains and Midwest during October 12–16 could influence the pace of fieldwork and the timing of grain deliveries. Its price impact will depend on the extent of the disruption and whether it changes market expectations for supply. Over the coming week, traders should prioritise new evidence over the initial reaction to the USDA report. The critical question is whether demand can absorb the larger crop quickly enough to prevent inventories from weighing further on prices. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The corn market is confronting a familiar agricultural pricing challenge: stronger production does not necessarily lead to an immediate collapse in prices, but it raises the level of demand required to support a sustained recovery. The USDA's higher yield estimate and larger production forecast have shifted the balance towards supply, while increased ending stocks suggest that the market has a greater cushion against short-term disruptions. The improvement in export expectations is constructive, but it must translate into actual buying activity to materially change the outlook. Weather introduces a potential source of volatility rather than an automatic bullish signal. Delayed harvesting could temporarily restrict deliveries, but unless crop estimates or longer-term supply expectations change, the underlying pressure may remain. My outlook is therefore cautious to bearish while corn futures remain below $4.90 per bushel. A recovery above that level would improve the short-term picture, but stronger export demand or a meaningful change in supply expectations would be needed to support a more durable bullish view. For the coming sessions, the most important signals will be export performance, harvest progress and whether the recent lows hold. Traders should remain alert to sharp countertrend rebounds while recognising that the broader supply outlook continues to favour caution. Currency Hedger View Corn prices can influence food producers, livestock operators, grain traders and businesses exposed to agricultural commodity costs. Changes in grain prices can also affect input costs, trade flows and currency exposure, particularly where purchases and sales are denominated in different currencies. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Commodity futures and foreign exchange products carry significant risk, and losses may exceed expectations. Market levels and forecasts are conditional scenarios and may change as new information becomes available. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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October 11, 2026

Baltic Dry Index Forecast: Freight Rates Weaken as Capesize Demand Comes Under Pressure

Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Baltic Dry Index Outlook: Shipping Costs Signal a Softer Bulk Freight Market The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is facing renewed downside pressure after declining for a fifth consecutive session, with the benchmark falling to 3,002 points, its lowest level since August 25. The index reportedly lost more than 7% over the week, reflecting weaker momentum across the dry bulk shipping market. The decline has been led by the capesize segment, where rates fell sharply amid pressure on vessels typically used to transport large volumes of iron ore and coal. Panamax and supramax rates have shown greater resilience, posting modest gains in the latest session. The outlook for the coming sessions will depend on demand for major industrial commodities, vessel availability, port congestion and the pace of global trade. Continued weakness in capesize freight rates could indicate softer demand for large bulk cargoes, although shipping prices can also fall because of changes in fleet availability and route-specific conditions. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest reported readingDirectionBaltic Dry Index3,002 pointsLowerWeekly BDI performanceMore than 7% declineBearishCapesize index4,638 pointsLowerPanamax index2,366 pointsSlightly higherSupramax index1,795 pointsSlightly higherMain pressure pointCapesize freight ratesWeak Figures are based on the supplied market report and should be verified against current Baltic Exchange data before publication. Fundamental Drivers Capesize Weakness Leads the Decline The capesize index fell by approximately 4% to 4,638 points, its lowest level since August 21. These vessels commonly transport large cargoes of iron ore and coal, making their rates sensitive to industrial demand, mining shipments and the movement of major raw materials. A sustained decline in capesize rates may reflect softer cargo demand or an increase in available vessel capacity on key routes. Changes in iron ore shipments, particularly from major exporting regions to Asian steel producers, can also affect freight pricing. For the coming sessions, the key question is whether the capesize decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a broader weakening in bulk shipping demand. A further sequence of lower rates would reinforce the negative short-term trend. Panamax and Supramax Offer Some Resilience The panamax index edged up by 0.1% to 2,366 points, while the supramax index gained 0.3% to 1,795 points. Panamax vessels carry substantial volumes of commodities such as coal and grain, while supramax vessels serve a broader range of bulk cargoes and trade routes. Their modest gains suggest that conditions are not weakening uniformly across every segment of the dry bulk market. This divergence is important. If smaller vessel categories continue to outperform capesize, the market may be experiencing route-specific or cargo-specific weakness rather than a universal decline in shipping activity. However, isolated daily gains are not yet sufficient to confirm a broader recovery. Sustained improvement across several vessel categories would provide stronger evidence that the freight market is stabilising. Global Commodity Demand Remains Central Dry bulk shipping is closely connected to the movement of industrial raw materials and agricultural commodities. Demand for iron ore and coal influences capesize activity, while grain shipments and other bulk cargoes affect panamax and supramax markets. If industrial activity weakens or commodity shipments slow, demand for shipping capacity could soften. Conversely, stronger infrastructure spending, improved steel production or increased agricultural exports could support cargo volumes and freight rates. China remains an important variable because of its role in global steel production and iron ore imports. Any change in Chinese industrial demand or raw-material purchasing could influence capesize rates, although freight prices also depend on supply-side factors such as vessel availability and voyage distances. Technical Outlook: Baltic Dry Index The BDI’s decline to 3,002 points, following five consecutive sessions of losses, indicates persistent near-term selling pressure. The reported weekly decline of more than 7% reinforces the weakening momentum. Key reference levels and signals: 3,002 points: The latest reported level and an immediate reference for assessing whether the index stabilises. The August 25 low: The latest reading is reported to be at its lowest since this date. A sustained move lower would signal further deterioration, although the precise prior low should be verified. Recovery above recent session highs: A sustained rebound could indicate that selling pressure is easing, particularly if capesize rates also stabilise. The supplied report does not provide enough historical price data to establish reliable support and resistance levels beyond these reference points. Traders should confirm current chart levels before setting specific targets. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Freight Rates Stabilise The BDI could recover if cargo demand improves, vessel availability tightens or major commodity shipments increase. Continued gains in panamax and supramax rates, combined with a recovery in capesize, would suggest that the recent decline is losing momentum. A rebound would be more convincing if it were sustained across several sessions rather than driven by a single daily increase. Bearish Scenario: Further Weakness in Capesize Rates The index could extend its decline if capesize rates continue falling and the weakness spreads to panamax and supramax segments. Softer iron ore and coal shipments, increased vessel availability or weaker industrial demand could add to the pressure. A sustained break below the latest reported level would reinforce the negative near-term outlook, subject to confirmation from current price data. Neutral Scenario: Consolidation Across Vessel Classes The market could stabilise if capesize rates stop falling while panamax and supramax remain relatively resilient. In this scenario, the benchmark may trade unevenly as different commodity routes and vessel categories respond to their own supply-and-demand conditions. Baltic Dry Index Forecast for the Coming Sessions The near-term outlook remains cautious following the benchmark’s five-session decline and weekly loss exceeding 7%. Capesize weakness is the most significant source of pressure, while the modest gains in panamax and supramax rates provide some evidence that conditions remain mixed across the shipping market. The next phase will depend on whether cargo demand can absorb available vessel capacity. Investors and market participants should monitor iron ore and coal shipments, Chinese industrial demand, grain exports, port congestion and changes in fleet availability. If capesize rates continue to weaken, the BDI could remain under pressure. If capesize stabilises and gains broaden across vessel categories, the benchmark may find a base and recover part of its recent losses. For now, the market favours a cautious outlook, with confirmation from subsequent sessions needed before concluding that the decline is either accelerating or reversing. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The Baltic Dry Index’s recent performance highlights the importance of distinguishing broad shipping-market weakness from movements in individual vessel categories. The benchmark’s weekly decline suggests that freight-market momentum has deteriorated, but the differing performance of capesize, panamax and supramax rates indicates that the underlying picture is not uniform. Capesize rates deserve particular attention because they are closely linked to large industrial commodity flows. Weakness in this segment can reflect changes in iron ore and coal shipments, but it can also arise from vessel supply, route conditions and the timing of cargo demand. Freight prices should therefore not be treated as a standalone measure of global economic activity. The most important signal in the coming sessions will be whether the decline broadens across vessel classes or begins to stabilise. A continued fall across the benchmark and its major components would strengthen the case for a weaker freight environment, while a recovery in capesize rates would suggest that some of the recent pressure is easing. The immediate outlook remains cautious, with commodity flows, vessel availability and Asian industrial demand likely to remain central to the next directional move. Currency Hedger View Changes in global shipping costs can influence commodity markets, trade conditions and the financial outlook for businesses involved in international supply chains. Companies importing or exporting bulk commodities should monitor freight costs alongside exchange rates, energy prices and demand in their key markets. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Website: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future market performance. Freight indices can fluctuate significantly in response to cargo demand, vessel supply, route conditions and geopolitical developments. Figures should be verified against current market data before publication.

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October 11, 2026

US Inflation Expectations Forecast: Rising Price Concerns Complicate the Federal Reserve Outlook

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets US Inflation Outlook: Consumer Confidence Weakens as Price Expectations Rise US inflation expectations increased in October 2026, while consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since May, highlighting growing pressure on American households from elevated prices and borrowing costs. The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey shows year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.7%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.5%. At the same time, consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, below market expectations of 47.6, as assessments of current economic conditions deteriorated. The combination creates a challenge for financial markets. Rising inflation expectations may limit the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to ease monetary policy, while weakening confidence raises concerns about household spending and economic momentum. The coming sessions will focus on whether inflation expectations continue to rise and whether the deterioration in sentiment begins to appear in actual consumer activity. Market Snapshot IndicatorOctober 2026 preliminary readingYear-ahead inflation expectations4.7%Previous year-ahead reading4.6%Five-year inflation expectations3.5%Previous five-year reading3.4%Consumer sentiment index46.3Market expectation for sentiment47.6Current economic conditions index44.7 Figures are based on the supplied preliminary University of Michigan survey report. Fundamental Drivers Inflation Expectations Add Pressure to the Fed Outlook Year-ahead inflation expectations reportedly reached 4.7% in October, while the five-year outlook increased to 3.5%. The longer-term measure is particularly important because it can help indicate whether consumers expect inflation pressures to persist beyond the immediate period. Higher expectations do not automatically translate into higher realised inflation. However, if households anticipate continued price increases, workers may seek higher wages and businesses may adjust prices in response to expected costs. Such behaviour can make inflation more persistent. For the Federal Reserve, the challenge is to distinguish temporary price pressures from a broader shift in inflation expectations. If expectations continue to rise, policymakers may be more cautious about easing monetary policy. If they stabilise while economic activity weakens, the balance of risks could shift. Consumer Sentiment Falls to a Five-Month Low The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, missing expectations of 47.6. The current economic conditions subindex dropped to 44.7, reflecting deteriorating assessments of household finances and buying conditions for durable goods. Persistently high prices and borrowing costs are reducing consumers’ perceived purchasing power. Lower-income households and those with smaller investment portfolios may be particularly exposed because they have less capacity to absorb additional expenses. Weak sentiment is not a direct measure of consumer spending, but it can provide an early warning of changes in household behaviour. If consumers delay discretionary purchases, businesses could face weaker demand, potentially slowing economic growth. The key question is whether this pessimism remains concentrated in survey responses or begins to affect retail sales and other measures of actual activity. The Inflation-Growth Dilemma The latest readings point to a difficult combination: consumers are increasingly concerned about inflation while becoming less confident about the economy. If inflation expectations continue rising, the Federal Reserve may have less room to cut rates without risking a further deterioration in price expectations. Yet maintaining restrictive policy for longer could add pressure to borrowing, housing and consumer spending. A weakening economy could eventually help moderate inflation, but the path may be uneven. Energy costs, service-sector prices, wages and household demand will all influence how policymakers interpret the incoming data. Market Impact: US Dollar, Treasury Yields and Equities US Dollar Outlook The dollar could receive support if rising inflation expectations lead markets to anticipate interest rates remaining elevated for longer. Higher expected US yields can attract capital toward dollar-denominated assets, particularly if other major economies face weaker growth or more accommodative monetary policy. However, the relationship is not automatic. If sentiment deteriorates further and investors become more concerned about US economic growth, the dollar’s response could become mixed. Safe-haven demand may support the currency, while expectations of eventual monetary easing could limit gains. The next direction will depend on whether markets focus more heavily on persistent inflation or the risk of weakening economic activity. Treasury Yields Rising inflation expectations can put upward pressure on Treasury yields as investors demand greater compensation for anticipated future price increases. The impact will depend on whether the increase is viewed as persistent and whether it changes expectations for Federal Reserve policy. If yields rise alongside inflation expectations, financial conditions could tighten further. If economic concerns dominate, yields could instead decline as markets anticipate weaker growth or a more accommodative policy response. US Equities Equity markets face competing forces. Persistent inflation expectations and higher yields can weigh on valuations, particularly for companies whose prices depend heavily on future earnings. Meanwhile, weaker consumer sentiment may raise concerns about revenue growth in retail, travel and other discretionary sectors. Some defensive sectors may prove more resilient, but the overall response will depend on corporate earnings, interest-rate expectations and evidence of actual consumer demand. Technical Outlook: Confirmation Needed The supplied report does not include current US Dollar Index levels, Treasury yields or equity index prices. Specific technical support and resistance levels would therefore require verification against live market charts. Traders should monitor: US Dollar Index (DXY): Whether the dollar breaks above recent resistance or loses momentum as growth concerns increase. US Treasury yields: Whether yields confirm rising inflation concerns or decline as investors price in weaker economic activity. Major equity indices: Whether markets hold recent support levels or weaken as higher yields and soft consumer sentiment weigh on risk appetite. The interaction between these markets may be more informative than any single indicator. A rising dollar and higher yields would suggest inflation and monetary-policy concerns are dominating, while falling yields alongside weaker equities could indicate that growth fears are becoming more influential. Bullish, Bearish and Neutral Scenarios Dollar-Bullish Scenario The dollar could strengthen if inflation expectations rise further, upcoming inflation data remain firm and markets push back expectations for monetary easing. Higher Treasury yields would reinforce this scenario, particularly if economic data outside the United States remain comparatively weak. Dollar-Bearish Scenario The dollar could weaken if incoming data point to a sharper slowdown in consumer demand and markets increasingly anticipate future rate cuts. Softer inflation readings could strengthen this possibility by reducing concerns that price expectations are becoming entrenched. Neutral Scenario Markets could consolidate if inflation expectations remain elevated but actual economic data show only gradual cooling. In this case, investors may wait for clearer evidence from inflation releases, retail sales and labour-market indicators before taking stronger directional positions. Forecast for the Coming Sessions The latest survey points to a US economy facing conflicting pressures. Inflation expectations are rising, while consumer confidence and assessments of current conditions are weakening. This combination makes the upcoming inflation and activity data particularly important. If price pressures remain persistent, the Federal Reserve may have limited scope to ease policy quickly, potentially supporting the dollar and keeping pressure on interest-rate-sensitive assets. If demand weakens more substantially and inflation begins to moderate, expectations could shift toward a less restrictive policy outlook. For the coming sessions, attention should turn to official inflation data, retail sales, employment indicators and Treasury yields. These will help determine whether the survey signals are consistent with the broader economic trend. The central outlook is one of heightened uncertainty rather than a clear, one-directional market signal. Inflation expectations remain a risk, but weakening sentiment suggests that the costs of restrictive financial conditions are also becoming more visible. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The latest consumer survey highlights a growing tension in the US economic outlook. Households are increasingly concerned about inflation, yet they are also reporting weaker assessments of current economic conditions. That combination complicates the interpretation of incoming data and the Federal Reserve’s policy choices. Inflation expectations matter because they can influence wage negotiations, spending decisions and business pricing. However, survey expectations must be assessed alongside actual inflation, labour-market conditions and consumer expenditure. A rise in expected inflation does not, by itself, establish that inflation will accelerate. The deterioration in sentiment is equally important. If it translates into weaker spending, the economy could lose momentum even while households remain concerned about prices. That would leave policymakers balancing the risk of persistent inflation against the risk of a sharper slowdown. For markets, the most important signal will be whether official data confirm persistent price pressure or reveal that demand is cooling sufficiently to moderate inflation. Until that distinction becomes clearer, the dollar, Treasury yields and equities may remain sensitive to every major release. Currency Hedger View Changes in US inflation expectations and consumer confidence can influence the dollar, global interest rates and exchange-rate volatility. Businesses with international payments or foreign-currency exposure should monitor how new economic data affect exchange rates and the cost of planned transactions. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Website: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future market performance. The figures cited are preliminary survey readings supplied for this article and may be revised. Market conditions can change rapidly, and all financial decisions should reflect individual circumstances and risk tolerance.

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October 11, 2026

Global Markets Forecast: US Inflation, Middle East Risks and Corporate Earnings in Focus

ency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Week Ahead: October 12–16, 2026 Global financial markets enter the week facing a combination of inflation uncertainty, geopolitical risks and major corporate earnings. Investors will focus on US consumer and producer price data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, while developments involving Iran, the United States and Gulf nations could influence energy prices, bond yields and broader risk sentiment. Elevated energy costs remain a key concern for policymakers and investors. Any escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices higher, intensify inflation concerns and reinforce pressure on government bond markets. Conversely, credible progress in negotiations could ease some of the geopolitical risk premium and support a recovery in risk-sensitive assets. The week’s outlook will also be shaped by economic releases from China, the eurozone, Japan, India and Australia, alongside earnings from major financial institutions, technology companies and global consumer brands. Market Snapshot Market driverWhat investors will watchUnited StatesCPI, PPI, retail sales, industrial production and trade dataMiddle EastNegotiations, security developments and potential energy-supply disruptionGovernment bondsInflation expectations, energy costs and bond yieldsCorporate earningsTSMC, ASML, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and CitigroupEurozoneIndustrial production and trade figuresChinaTrade balance, monetary aggregates and credit conditionsJapanProducer prices and machinery ordersIndia and AustraliaLabour-market updates This outlook is based on the supplied economic-calendar summary. Confirm individual release dates, times and consensus estimates against the latest calendar before publication. United States: CPI and PPI Set the Tone US inflation data will be the central economic focus, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) providing fresh evidence about price pressures across the economy. Markets will assess whether energy costs are feeding into broader inflation or whether underlying price pressures are moderating. A stronger-than-expected CPI or PPI reading could reinforce expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer, potentially supporting the US dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher. A softer inflation outcome could have the opposite effect, encouraging investors to reassess the outlook for interest rates and supporting equities and other risk-sensitive assets. Retail sales and industrial production will provide additional insight into the resilience of US demand. Strong activity alongside persistent inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, while weaker data combined with easing price pressures could strengthen the case for a more accommodative outlook. US Dollar Outlook The dollar’s direction will depend on the interaction between inflation, economic activity and Treasury yields. A combination of firm inflation and resilient demand could support the currency through higher expected interest rates. However, weaker activity or a significant reduction in geopolitical tensions could temper demand for defensive dollar positions. Investors should also monitor whether higher energy prices support the dollar through safe-haven demand or weigh on sentiment by increasing the perceived risk of slower global growth. Middle East: Energy Markets and Geopolitical Risk Developments involving Iran, the United States and Gulf nations will remain a major influence on financial markets. Investors will be watching for evidence of progress in negotiations, but also for any escalation that could threaten regional security or energy infrastructure. A renewed increase in geopolitical tensions could lift crude oil prices and energy-related inflation expectations. Higher energy costs may complicate the outlook for central banks, particularly if bond markets respond by demanding greater compensation for inflation and uncertainty. The implications would extend beyond commodities. Higher yields could pressure equity valuations, while currencies sensitive to global risk appetite could come under pressure. If negotiations make meaningful progress, some of the geopolitical risk premium could unwind. That could ease pressure on energy prices, improve investor confidence and help stabilise bond markets. However, any relief rally would remain vulnerable to renewed headlines. Corporate Earnings: Banks and Technology in Focus Corporate earnings will provide a second major source of direction for equity markets. US Banks JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup will attract attention for indications about lending conditions, consumer resilience, credit quality and trading activity. Investors will also assess management commentary on the economic outlook and the impact of interest rates on margins. Stronger results and constructive guidance could support financial shares, while rising credit stress or cautious commentary could reinforce concerns about the economic cycle. Semiconductor and Technology Companies TSMC and ASML will be watched for signals about semiconductor demand, investment in advanced manufacturing and the sustainability of AI-related spending. Strong results could support technology sentiment and broader equity indices. Any indication of weaker demand, investment delays or pressure on margins could encourage investors to reassess valuations across the technology sector. Healthcare and Luxury Goods Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth will provide insight into healthcare-sector conditions, while LVMH will offer a perspective on global consumer demand, particularly for premium and luxury products. The combination of these results should help investors judge whether corporate earnings remain resilient despite high financing costs, geopolitical uncertainty and pressure on household purchasing power. Eurozone: Industrial Production and Trade Data Eurozone industrial production and trade figures will help investors assess the strength of regional demand and the performance of export-oriented industries. Weak industrial activity could reinforce concerns about the region’s growth outlook and place pressure on the euro, particularly if US data remain comparatively strong. Better-than-expected production or trade results could provide support by suggesting that economic conditions are stabilising. Energy prices remain an important variable for the region. A renewed rise in oil and gas costs could weaken the outlook for manufacturers and consumers while complicating the European Central Bank’s assessment of inflation risks. For EUR/USD, the relative performance of US and eurozone data will be important. Stronger US inflation alongside weaker European activity would generally favour the dollar, whereas softer US inflation and improving eurozone indicators could help the euro recover. China: Trade Balance and Credit Conditions China’s trade balance will be closely watched amid persistent protectionist measures and trade tensions with key partners. Export performance could influence expectations for industrial activity, manufacturing demand and the wider global growth outlook. Monetary aggregates will also provide insight into credit availability and the flow of financing through traditional and emerging economic sectors. Investors will look for signs that credit conditions are supporting domestic activity, while remaining alert to evidence of weak demand or uneven economic momentum. Weaker trade performance could weigh on sentiment toward growth-sensitive commodities and currencies linked to Chinese demand. Stronger exports or improving credit indicators could offer support, although the market reaction will also depend on trade-policy developments and the composition of the data. Japan: Producer Prices and Machinery Orders Japan’s producer-price data will provide an update on cost pressures across the business sector, while machinery orders will help gauge investment demand. Persistent producer-price pressure could reinforce expectations that the Bank of Japan may need to continue adjusting policy, depending on how price increases feed through to consumer inflation and wages. Strong machinery orders could indicate healthier business investment, while weaker figures could raise concerns about domestic and external demand. For USD/JPY, the main considerations will remain the relative direction of US and Japanese yields, expectations for central-bank policy and broader risk sentiment. Stronger US inflation could support the dollar, while a shift toward tighter Japanese monetary policy could provide support to the yen. India and Australia: Labour-Market Signals Labour-market updates from India and Australia will offer fresh information about employment conditions and domestic economic momentum. In Australia, employment and labour-force data could influence expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia policy. A stronger labour market may sustain concerns about domestic inflation, while weaker figures could strengthen expectations for a more cautious policy stance. The Australian dollar may also respond to changes in global risk appetite and developments in China, given the importance of Chinese demand to the Australian economic outlook. India’s labour-market indicators will provide additional context on domestic economic resilience. The implications for financial markets will depend on the data’s significance for growth expectations, inflation and the broader policy outlook. Key Market Scenarios for the Week Bullish Risk-Asset Scenario A softer-than-expected US inflation report, constructive corporate earnings and progress in Middle East negotiations could support equities and improve global risk appetite. Lower energy prices and easing bond yields would strengthen this scenario, potentially helping the euro, Australian dollar and other growth-sensitive assets. Bearish Risk-Asset Scenario Stronger US inflation, disappointing earnings or a renewed escalation in Middle East tensions could lift energy prices and bond yields while weighing on equities. The US dollar could benefit from relative yield support and safe-haven demand, although the impact would depend on how markets interpret the growth consequences of higher energy costs. Mixed or Range-Bound Scenario If inflation data, earnings and geopolitical developments send conflicting signals, markets may remain volatile without establishing a sustained direction. Investors could favour shorter-term positioning while waiting for clearer evidence on inflation, central-bank policy and corporate profitability. Forecast for the Coming Sessions The week ahead is likely to be driven by the interaction between inflation data and geopolitical developments rather than any single release. US CPI and PPI will be particularly important for the dollar and government bonds, while earnings from major banks and technology companies will help determine whether equity valuations are supported by underlying business performance. Energy prices will remain a cross-market influence. Further geopolitical escalation could increase inflation risks and complicate the outlook for central banks, while progress in negotiations could reduce some of the pressure on commodities and bond yields. Currency markets may respond sharply to changes in relative interest-rate expectations. The dollar could remain supported if US inflation proves persistent, but a softer data outcome could encourage a correction. The euro will be sensitive to the balance between US and eurozone data, while the yen and Australian dollar will also respond to domestic releases and broader market sentiment. For investors and businesses, the priority will be to distinguish short-lived reactions from changes in the underlying macroeconomic outlook. Confirming signals across inflation, yields, earnings and geopolitical developments will be more reliable than responding to individual headlines in isolation. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Markets enter the week balancing three interconnected risks: persistent inflation, uncertainty over the global growth outlook and the potential for geopolitical developments to disrupt energy supplies. The US inflation releases could reset expectations for Federal Reserve policy, particularly if energy costs are beginning to influence prices beyond the immediate energy sector. At the same time, corporate earnings will test whether major companies can sustain profitability in an environment of high financing costs and uncertain demand. Geopolitical developments add another layer of complexity. A sharp rise in oil prices could support inflation expectations and government bond yields, creating pressure for both equities and interest-rate-sensitive assets. A credible reduction in regional tensions could reverse some of that pressure, but the durability of any improvement would depend on the underlying security situation. The most prudent outlook is for continued volatility, with the US dollar, Treasury yields and crude oil acting as important transmission channels between economic data and global markets. Investors should remain alert to changes in the relationship between inflation, growth and central-bank expectations rather than relying on a single directional forecast. Currency Hedger View For businesses with international currency exposure, the coming week’s combination of inflation releases, energy-market uncertainty and central-bank expectations could create sudden changes in exchange rates and transaction costs. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Website: https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future market performance. Economic releases, earnings announcements and geopolitical events can cause substantial market volatility. Dates, release schedules and consensus expectations should be verified against current official calendars before publication. All financial decisions should reflect individual circumstances and risk tolerance.

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Banks

October 11, 2026

Chinese Yuan: PBoC defends yuan narrative – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that the People’s Bank of China rejected claims the yuan is undervalued, linking export strength to industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation. The central bank will start reporting FX operations to the IMF from 2027, while reserves slipped to USD3.40tn. In FX, USD/CNY fell 30 pips to 6.70, with USD/CNH little changed at 6.70. Policy paper counters undervaluation claims "The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) issued a policy paper rejecting claims that the yuan is undervalued, arguing that China's export strength reflects industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation." "The statement came as EU trade officials opened two days of talks with Chinese counterparts, with Brussels increasingly framing bilateral trade imbalances as a currency issue. The PBoC’s paper signals Beijing’s intent to shape the narrative before any formal demands on exchange rate adjustment can gain traction." "PBoC argued there is no linear relationship between the exchange rate and the current account balance, and that past periods of yuan depreciation did not accelerate China’s export market share gains. The central bank also announced that China will begin reporting foreign exchange operation data to the IMF starting in 2027, a concession to longstanding calls for greater transparency." "Credit demand remains sluggish, and the investment-led policy push has not yet generated a broader economic rebound. China’s foreign exchange reserves fell to USD3.40tn at end-September (Bloomberg consensus: USD3.43tn) vs USD3.44tn at end-August, partly reflecting valuation effects from gold price weakness during the month." "The move is modest in scope but notable in timing, offering a goodwill gesture to multilateral institutions as bilateral trade tensions with Europe escalate. Separately, the broader global push back against Chinese export dominance is intensifying, with France and Germany pushing the European Commission toward more assertive protective measures."

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Banks

October 11, 2026

Chinese Yuan: PBoC stance and valuation debate guide currency path – MUFG

Halpenny highlights a new PBoC document defending China’s FX policy and rejecting claims that CNY drives its trade surplus, instead pointing to manufacturing competitiveness. He notes BIS REER data showing a 20% fall from the 2022 peak and IMF estimates of 12–20% undervaluation, suggesting CNY is undervalued but only partly explains China’s export strength. China defends FX policy and CNY level "Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is in talks with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and coinciding with these talks is the release yesterday of a PBOC document defending the FX policy of China and arguing against the level of CNY as being the cause of China’s large trade surplus. Competitive gains within China’s manufacturing sector is the main driver of increase exports from China." "The release of this document by the PBoC suggests China isn’t budging. Is the CNY undervalued? The answer seems certainly yes although the scale of undervaluation is debated and while this undervaluation helps boost exports the FX factor is only a partial explanation." "The BIS REER level of RMB advanced notable from 2005 – by nearly 60% through to end-2015. However, from the 2022 high the index fell 20% to last year’s low before 6.5% to today’s level. The IMF estimates an undervaluation of between 12% to 20% which is around the consensus range." "This mounting pressure looks to be encouraging China too allow renewed gains. Recent PBoC fixing in USD/CNY indicate a desire to keep CNY on a strengthening path despite the broader gains for the dollar. EUR/CNY is 10% lower from the January high and we see near-term scope for further declines."

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Banks

October 11, 2026

Singapore Dollar: Range trading persists against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD remains supported within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s policy band, with SGD NEER likely between 1.50% and 1.80% above midpoint, implying a 1.279–1.283 range. Short-term price action shows limited upward momentum, with resistance near 1.2835 and revised strong support at 1.2775. Dollar-Singapore pair stuck in tight band "24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, USD rose to 1.2810 and then closed 0.10% higher at 1.2797.” Yesterday, we noted that “the increase in upward momentum is insufficient to suggest a sustained rise.” However, we held the view that “there is a chance for USD to edge above 1.2810.” We added, “the major resistance at 1.2835 is unlikely to come into view.” USD subsequently rose to 1.2827 before easing to close 0.10% higher at 1.2810. There has been no further increase in upward momentum. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 1.2785 and 1.2820." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update yesterday (08 Oct, spot at 1.2795): “While upward momentum is building again, it is weaker than before, and USD is unlikely to reach 1.2835. On the downside, a breach of 1.2765 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate a period of range-trading.” There is no change in our view, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level higher to 1.2775."

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Banks

October 11, 2026

Taiwan Dollar: Trade strength but losses capped against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts note Taiwan’s September trade surplus hit a record USD23.6bn, with exports surging 60.9% year-on-year on strong AI-related demand. The Central Bank of the Republic of China may lean more hawkish if inflation’s uptrend persists. USD/TWD rose 0.3% to 31.90, but the pair’s upside may be limited as the central bank disclosed FX intervention in September. Record surplus and CBC intervention "September trade surplus surprised on the upside, widening to a record USD23.6bn (Bloomberg consensus: USD19.0bn) vs USD22.3bn in August. As a result, the surplus from January to September rose 61.9% yoy to USD160.6bn, which has already exceeded the full-year 2025 surplus of USD157.1bn." "Overall, the stronger-than-expected trade surplus should reinforce the Central Bank of the Republic of China's (CBC) confidence in Taiwan's growth outlook. This could see them place a greater emphasis on inflation at the next meeting on 17 December meeting. Inflation averaged 1.9% between January and September but they picked up to 2.7% yoy in September." "In FX, USD/TWD rose 0.3% to 31.90 yesterday, driven by broad USD strength, higher oil prices, and foreign portfolio outflows. Foreign investors were net sellers of USD2.6bn of Taiwanese equities, the largest daily outflow in nearly a month." "USD/TWD has consolidated within the 31.65-31.95 range over the past month. Further upside to the pair may be capped by CBC intervention. The central bank disclosed that it intervened in September and may have sold up to USD1.1bn in the FX market."

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Banks

October 11, 2026

China: Robust trade and rising prices – DBS

DBS Group Research expects China’s exports to grow 25.7% year-on-year in September, supported by strong electronics demand and improving manufacturing PMIs. The report notes strengthening external trade indicators and freight activity, alongside a rebound in factory-gate and raw material prices, with CPI inflation seen edging up to 1.0% but still constrained by soft domestic demand. Strong exports with moderate CPI inflation "Exports growth is expected to remain robust at 25.7% yoy in September, supported by continued strength in electronics demand." "Both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs rose above the 50 expansion threshold during the month, pointing to improving manufacturing activity." "External trade indicators also strengthened, with average daily deadweight tonnage handled at China's 20 major ports accelerating from -0.7% yoy in August to 7.2% in September." "Freight activity improved as well, as growth in international cargo flights picked up from -1.4% yoy to 3.6% over the same period." "On the price front, factory-gate and raw material prices rebounded amid the renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions. Main raw material purchasing price and producer price subPMI increased from 56.6 and 50.4 to 60.8 and 54.0 during the period. However, downstream consumer price pressures are likely to remain relatively subdued under the pricing-band mechanism." "As a result, CPI inflation is expected to edge up from 0.8% yoy in August to 1.0% in September."

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Banks

October 11, 2026

Singapore Dollar: MAS tightening but gains constrained – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Singapore Dollar (SGD) has held relatively steady despite a firmer US Dollar (USD) and higher Oil prices, with MAS tightening expectations underpinning the S$NEER. USD/SGD trades near recent highs with intact bullish momentum. With S$NEER already strong, further Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) slope steepening may not trigger significant SGD gains against a stronger Dollar. USDSGD consolidation and MAS outlook "SGD held relatively steady despite firmer USD and higher oil prices. MAS tightening expectations should underpin S$NEER, though its position on the strong side of the band may limit further gains, particularly against a stronger USD." "USD/SGD was a touch firmer near recent highs. Last at 1.28 levels. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is flat. 2-way trade still likely, as we keep a look out for rallies to fade into. Resistance at 1.2820 (100 DMA), 1.2840 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.2740/50 levels (61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high, 50 DMA)." "For SGD, the implications may be more nuanced. With the S$NEER already trading on the strong side of its policy band, some tightening expectations may already be reflected in the currency. A slight slope steepening would reinforce the medium-term appreciation bias, but may not necessarily trigger significant further SGD gains, particularly against a firmer USD." "Conversely, an unchanged stance could disappoint market expectations and see the S$NEER ease towards the midpoint. We continue to favour SGD resilience on a trade-weighted basis, although USD/SGD may remain sensitive to broader USD, US rates developments, sentiment shifts in the near term."

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Markets

October 11, 2026

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Recovery Faces Pressure from the Dollar and Treasury Yields

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Gold is attempting to recover after retreating from its recent highs, with prices advancing by approximately 1.2% and approaching the $4,200-per-ounce level. The rebound suggests that buyers are defending the $4,070–$4,150 area as a potential short-term base, although a sustained recovery will depend on the direction of the US dollar, Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The outlook remains mixed. Concerns over US government debt, geopolitical uncertainty and resilient investment demand are supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, elevated borrowing costs and uncertainty over the Fed's next move could continue to restrict the metal's upside. Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent market pictureGold (GOLD)Up approximately 1.2%Key resistanceAround $4,200 per ouncePotential support zone$4,070–$4,150US Treasury yieldsElevated, but below the recent 5.35% peak cited in the sourceUS dollarRelatively firm, creating headwinds for goldETF holdingsReportedly above 101 million ouncesMarket biasCautiously constructive, subject to confirmation Market figures and positioning observations are based on the supplied market report and should be checked against live data before publication. Gold Price Outlook: Can Buyers Sustain the Recovery? Gold's latest advance indicates that investors are attempting to establish a firmer base following the recent decline. The $4,070–$4,150 area is an important zone to monitor because a sustained defence of this range could provide the foundation for a renewed move higher. A break above $4,200 would be an initial sign that buyers are regaining control. If the metal can maintain momentum above this level, attention could turn towards higher resistance areas established during the preceding advance. However, an intraday rise alone is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. Gold needs to demonstrate that buying interest can absorb selling pressure as prices approach resistance. Conversely, a failure to hold the recent base would weaken the recovery case and expose the market to another test of lower support. The immediate direction is likely to depend on whether safe-haven demand can offset the pressure created by elevated yields and a firm dollar. Federal Reserve Uncertainty Keeps Volatility Elevated The Federal Reserve remains one of the most important influences on gold's near-term direction. Recent meeting minutes reportedly revealed divisions among policymakers over the reasons for the September rate increase, with some focused on inflation risks linked to price shocks and others concerned about inflation generated by stronger demand. This disagreement leaves investors without a clear, predetermined path for future monetary policy. The possibility of further tightening remains relevant, while the pace and timing of any additional increases are uncertain. For gold, the distinction is important. Higher interest rates and bond yields generally increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, making the metal less attractive relative to interest-bearing alternatives. Expectations of a less restrictive policy outlook, by contrast, could help gold regain momentum. The supplied report cites market-implied probabilities of approximately 17% for an October rate increase and 81% for a December increase. These figures are time-sensitive and should be verified before publication. More broadly, changes in rate expectations may prove as important as the actual policy decision. US Debt Concerns Offer a Counterweight to High Yields Concerns about the scale of US government debt may provide an additional source of support for gold. Investors may seek to diversify exposure away from government assets and fiat currencies when fiscal sustainability becomes a greater concern. This creates a competing force in the current market. Elevated Treasury yields and dollar strength can weigh on gold in the short term, while longer-term concerns about debt, purchasing power and financial stability may reinforce its role as a portfolio diversifier. The balance between these forces will be important in determining whether the latest recovery develops into a broader advance or remains a temporary rebound within a corrective phase. Geopolitical Risk and the Strait of Hormuz Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain another factor to monitor. Any escalation that threatens shipping routes or energy supplies could increase demand for safe-haven assets, including gold. However, the relationship is not straightforward. A sustained disruption to energy flows could push oil prices higher, adding to inflationary pressure and potentially strengthening expectations that central banks will maintain restrictive monetary policy. Gold could therefore face opposing effects from the same geopolitical event: stronger safe-haven demand on one side and higher inflation expectations and yields on the other. The market's response will depend on which channel dominates. Gold ETF Holdings Signal Underlying Investment Interest The supplied report highlights a divergence between gold prices and exchange-traded fund holdings. While gold has pulled back from its recent highs, aggregate ETF holdings are reportedly above 101 million ounces. If confirmed, this divergence would suggest that some investors continue to build or maintain exposure despite the price correction. Sustained ETF inflows could provide a constructive medium-term signal, particularly if they are accompanied by stronger physical demand. Nevertheless, ETF holdings should not be treated as a guarantee of higher prices. Short-term movements can still be dominated by changes in the dollar, real yields, futures positioning and expectations for monetary policy. The key question is whether continued investment demand will translate into sufficient buying pressure to push gold through resistance. GOLD (D1 timeframe) COMEX and Shanghai Positioning: A Divergence to Watch The positioning picture described in the supplied report is moderately constructive. COMEX long and net positions have reportedly recovered from their lows but remain below previous peaks. This may indicate that speculative exposure has moderated, potentially reducing the risk of an aggressive liquidation if prices weaken again. Shanghai positioning, by contrast, is described as remaining relatively elevated compared with much of the period since 2020. This may point to more persistent demand from Asian investors, while Western futures positioning appears more sensitive to interest-rate expectations and dollar movements. If these trends are confirmed, the contrast could indicate that underlying demand remains present even as short-term investors reassess the US monetary outlook. However, positioning data can change quickly and should be assessed alongside actual price action and fund flows. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios Bullish scenario Gold holds the $4,070–$4,150 support area and breaks convincingly above $4,200. A softer dollar, declining yields, continued ETF inflows or renewed geopolitical concerns could help extend the recovery. A sustained move above resistance would strengthen the case for a broader rebound. Bearish scenario Gold fails to maintain its recent base, while Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar strengthens further. Renewed expectations of Fed tightening could reduce demand for non-yielding assets and push prices back towards the lower end of the recent range. A break below support would weaken the recovery structure. Neutral scenario Gold continues to consolidate between the recent support zone and $4,200 as investors wait for clearer signals on monetary policy, yields and geopolitical developments. In this scenario, volatility may remain elevated without a sustained directional move. Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Sessions Gold's short-term outlook is cautiously constructive while prices remain above the $4,070–$4,150 area, but confirmation is needed before a stronger bullish view can be established. The first test is whether buyers can sustain a move through $4,200. A successful break could attract additional momentum-driven demand, particularly if the dollar and yields begin to ease. If resistance holds, the metal may remain range-bound as traders balance safe-haven demand against the cost of holding gold in a high-yield environment. The next directional move is likely to be shaped by US interest-rate expectations, Treasury market developments, dollar movements and changes in geopolitical risk. Investors should also monitor whether reported ETF demand remains firm during any further price weakness. Overall outlook: Gold has room to recover if support holds, but the market remains vulnerable to renewed pressure from higher yields and dollar strength. Confirmation above $4,200 would improve the near-term technical picture, while a break below the recent base would increase the risk of another decline. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Gold is approaching a critical point in its short-term recovery. The recent advance suggests that buyers are becoming more active following the correction, while reported ETF holdings and resilient Asian positioning point to continued interest in the metal. However, the recovery is taking place against a challenging monetary backdrop. Elevated yields and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve could limit further gains, particularly if inflation concerns encourage policymakers to maintain a restrictive stance. The most important signal will be the market's ability to hold support and establish acceptance above $4,200. Until that happens, gold's rebound should be treated as an attempt to stabilise rather than definitive evidence that the previous upward trend has resumed. Currency Hedger View Gold's outlook reflects the same macroeconomic forces that influence currency markets: interest-rate expectations, dollar strength, inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger US dollar can place pressure on gold while also affecting the cost of international transactions and the value of overseas revenues. Businesses with cross-border exposure should monitor these developments alongside their own currency requirements. Sudden changes in monetary-policy expectations or geopolitical conditions can produce rapid movements across foreign exchange and commodity markets, making forward planning and exposure management particularly important. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding?utm_source=chatgpt.com Explore Currency Hedger at https://currencyhedger.com/ Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Gold prices can be volatile, and precious metals trading involves a risk of loss. Forecasts and scenarios are conditional, not guaranteed outcomes. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances before making investment decisions.

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Energies

October 11, 2026

Natural Gas Forecast: Hurricane Risk and Winter Weather Outlook Support Prices

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Natural gas prices enter Monday, 12 October, with bullish momentum building on both sides of the Atlantic. US natural gas futures gained approximately 2.5% towards the end of last week, while European prices advanced by more than 4%, as weather uncertainty, potential supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions combined to support the market. The outlook for the coming sessions will depend on whether these supply-side concerns can outweigh the impact of rising inventories and uncertainty over winter demand. Hurricane-related disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico could tighten near-term US supply, while conflicting seasonal forecasts from major weather models are making it more difficult for traders to assess the likely balance between consumption and production. At the same time, the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report showed a larger inventory build than the market had anticipated. This remains an important counterweight to the bullish narrative, particularly if production recovers quickly and temperatures remain relatively mild. For Monday, the key question is whether last week's advance marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or another move within the broader trading range. Market Snapshot IndicatorMarket implicationUS natural gas (NATGAS)Short-term momentum has improvedEuropean natural gasStronger price gains reflect regional supply concernsGulf of Mexico productionHurricane-related shut-ins could temporarily restrict supplyUS storageAn 85 Bcf injection provides a bearish counterweightWeather forecastsDifferences between models increase uncertainty over winter demandTechnical outlookBullish momentum is developing within a broader consolidation Natural Gas Prices: Supply Disruptions Drive the Latest Advance The latest rise in natural gas prices reflects a combination of potential production losses, changing seasonal expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. In the United States, the supplied market report indicates that Hurricane Isaias has disrupted Gulf of Mexico production, with approximately 57% of regional output reportedly shut in. The reported figure should be treated as a snapshot of the disruption rather than an indication that the same level of production loss will persist into the coming week. The impact on prices will depend on how quickly offshore facilities return to operation, whether infrastructure suffers lasting damage and how much replacement supply is available from other production regions. Temporary disruptions can support prices when the market is already sensitive to weather and demand expectations. However, the effect may fade if production resumes quickly or storage levels remain comfortable. European natural gas has experienced even stronger gains, highlighting the market's sensitivity to supply security and the wider geopolitical environment. European pricing is influenced by storage availability, LNG deliveries, pipeline flows, competition for global cargoes and expectations for winter consumption. Although US and European natural gas prices can respond to the same global developments, their market structures and supply-demand balances differ. A rally in one region does not guarantee an equivalent move in the other. Winter Weather Forecasts: The Next Major Catalyst Weather expectations are likely to remain a central driver during the coming sessions. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US Global Forecast System (GFS) have reportedly produced different indications for the developing winter outlook. Diverging forecasts increase uncertainty because traders must assess whether expected temperatures will support stronger heating demand or allow inventories to remain comfortable. Colder-than-normal conditions can increase residential, commercial and industrial demand for natural gas, particularly when they coincide with limited supply flexibility. Warmer conditions can have the opposite effect, reducing heating requirements and easing pressure on storage. However, seasonal forecasts are subject to revision, and early indications do not necessarily translate into realised demand. Traders will be watching for greater agreement between the models and for changes in the timing, duration and geographical distribution of potential cold periods. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Persian Gulf adds another layer of risk. Concerns affecting energy transportation or regional supply could increase market sensitivity to weather-related disruptions, even when the direct impact on natural gas differs from that on crude oil. Bullish scenario Natural gas could extend its recovery if updated forecasts point towards colder conditions, hurricane-related production losses persist or geopolitical risks intensify. A combination of stronger expected demand and reduced available supply would improve the near-term balance, potentially encouraging buyers to challenge the upper boundary of the existing trading range. Bearish scenario Prices could retreat if weather forecasts become milder, offshore production returns quickly and storage injections continue to exceed expectations. Under these conditions, the market may reassess the urgency of securing additional supply ahead of winter. Last week's advance could then prove to be a temporary rebound rather than the start of a sustained uptrend. EIA Storage Report: Inventory Growth Limits the Upside The latest US EIA storage report showed an increase of 85 billion cubic feet (Bcf), compared with market expectations of approximately 79–82 Bcf. The larger-than-expected injection suggests that supply exceeded consumption and other withdrawals sufficiently to add more gas to storage than analysts had anticipated during the reporting period. Storage data remain particularly important as the market moves towards the heating season. Inventory levels help determine how much flexibility the system has to meet periods of stronger demand or unexpected production interruptions. A single weekly report does not establish the direction of the broader market. Investors should compare subsequent injections with seasonal norms, assess the overall level of working gas in storage and monitor production and demand trends. If inventories continue to build faster than expected, the market may struggle to sustain a rally without a meaningful change in the weather outlook or supply conditions. Conversely, smaller injections or withdrawals as temperatures fall could strengthen the case for higher prices. NATGAS Technical Analysis: Momentum Improves Within Consolidation The daily technical picture points to an improving short-term tone, although natural gas remains within a broader consolidation range. The supplied chart identifies an approximate trading band between $2.60 and $3.40. Recent gains and an RSI (14) reading near 60 suggest that buying momentum has strengthened without reaching traditionally overbought territory. This leaves room for further upside, but momentum alone is not confirmation of a sustained breakout. Bullish technical outlook If prices maintain their recent gains and move towards the upper end of the established range, traders will watch for a sustained break above the $3.40 area. A confirmed breakout, supported by stronger demand expectations or continued supply disruptions, could indicate that the market is transitioning from consolidation into a more pronounced recovery. Bearish technical outlook If prices lose momentum and fall back towards the middle or lower portion of the range, the recent advance may be interpreted as a temporary rebound. A move towards the $2.60 region would bring the lower boundary of the broader consolidation back into focus. A decisive break below that area would weaken the current technical picture. These levels are approximate reference points taken from the supplied chart, not guaranteed support or resistance levels. Price action, updated data and volatility conditions may alter their relevance. Natural Gas Forecast for Monday and the Coming Week The opening sessions of the week are likely to be shaped by three factors: the pace of recovery in US offshore production, revisions to winter weather forecasts and the next indications of the US storage balance. The bullish case rests on supply uncertainty coinciding with expectations of stronger seasonal demand. If production disruptions persist and forecasts turn colder, natural gas could attempt to extend last week's gains. The bearish case centres on the possibility that supply returns faster than expected while inventories continue to build. In that scenario, the market may struggle to break out of its existing range. The European market will require a separate assessment, with particular attention to regional storage, LNG availability and changes in the balance between European demand and global supply. Rather than assuming that the latest gains will continue, market participants should look for confirmation from both fundamental data and price action. NATGAS (D1) Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Natural gas is entering a period in which short-term supply disruptions and longer-term seasonal expectations can have an outsized influence on price movements. Last week's rally reflects an increasingly sensitive balance between potential production losses, uncertain winter temperatures and geopolitical risks. Yet the larger-than-expected EIA storage injection demonstrates that the market is not facing an unambiguously tightening supply-demand picture. The most important development to monitor on Monday is whether the market continues to price in the risk of reduced supply and stronger winter demand, or whether attention shifts back towards comfortable inventories and the prospect of recovering production. Technically, improving momentum supports the possibility of further gains, but the broad consolidation remains intact until prices establish a more decisive move beyond the established range. The outlook is therefore cautiously bullish in the short term, conditional on continued supply concerns and supportive weather forecasts. Confirmation will be essential, particularly if prices approach the upper boundary of the current trading range. Currency Hedger View: Natural Gas and Business Cost Exposure Natural gas price movements can affect energy-intensive businesses, manufacturers and other companies exposed to changing fuel and electricity costs. The impact varies according to regional pricing, supply contracts, consumption profiles and the extent to which costs are already fixed or hedged. For businesses operating across borders, commodity volatility can also interact with foreign exchange movements. Changes in energy costs and currency rates may influence supplier invoices, operating margins, procurement budgets and cash-flow forecasts at the same time. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger to learn more about managing international currency exposure. Coming Sessions: What to Watch Weather forecasts: Look for changes in projected temperatures and greater agreement between the ECMWF and GFS models. US production: Monitor updates on Gulf of Mexico shut-ins and the pace of offshore supply recovery. EIA inventories: Compare future storage injections with seasonal expectations and the overall level of working gas. European gas: Assess regional storage, LNG flows and supply-security developments. Technical momentum: Watch whether NATGAS sustains its recovery and tests the upper end of the current trading range. The balance between weather-driven demand and available supply will determine whether natural gas can extend its latest gains. For now, the market has a supportive short-term tone, but confirmation from production data, inventory trends and updated forecasts will be necessary before a sustained breakout can be established. Disclaimer This article is for informational and market commentary purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Natural gas prices can be highly volatile and may respond sharply to weather forecasts, production disruptions, inventory data and geopolitical developments. Past price movements do not guarantee future performance.

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Earnings

October 11, 2026

Who Could Surprise the Market During the Q3 2026 Earnings Season?

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets The third-quarter 2026 earnings season is moving into focus as investors assess whether corporate results can justify current valuations amid uncertainty surrounding interest rates, energy prices and the future direction of the artificial intelligence industry. While major banks and semiconductor companies are expected to attract significant attention, some of the most meaningful share-price movements may come from companies operating outside the market’s main investment themes. Earnings surprises occur when reported results or forward guidance materially differ from expectations, forcing investors to reassess a company’s future profitability. Four companies stand out for different reasons: UnitedHealth Group, Charles Schwab, LVMH and Travelers. Their outlooks span healthcare costs, interest income, discretionary consumer spending and insurance underwriting, offering a broader view of the economic pressures shaping corporate America and European markets. The central question is not simply which companies will beat earnings estimates. It is where consensus expectations may underestimate either the potential for improvement or the risks to future profitability. Market Snapshot CompanyTickerKey earnings driverPrincipal riskUnitedHealth GroupUNHMedical cost management and operating marginsHealthcare utilisation and Medicare economicsCharles SchwabSCHWNet interest income and trading activityDeposit costs and interest-rate changesLVMHMCFashion and leather goods profitabilityWeak luxury demand and consumer pressureTravelersTRVUnderwriting performance and investment incomeCatastrophe losses and competitive pricing 1. UnitedHealth Group (UNH): Can Margin Recovery Exceed Expectations? UnitedHealth Group has recovered from the lows recorded during the second half of 2025 and early 2026, although its valuation remains below previous peaks. The company continues to face operational and reputational challenges, but efforts to restructure its business, adjust pricing and improve profitability have become central to its recovery narrative. The investment case increasingly depends on whether UnitedHealth can improve margins even as membership in certain government-supported healthcare programmes declines. Market expectations point to a reduction of approximately 10% year over year in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid membership, while consensus forecasts suggest UnitedHealthcare operating profit could increase by around 27%. If achieved, this would indicate that profitability improvements, rather than customer growth, are driving the recovery. Medical Care Ratio: The Critical Indicator The Medical Care Ratio (MCR), which measures medical costs as a proportion of healthcare premiums, will be one of the most important figures to monitor. The supplied market outlook identifies approximately 90% as the expected MCR, compared with 86.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Comparisons require care because previous-period results can be affected by adjustments to earlier cost estimates. A higher MCR generally indicates that more premium revenue is being consumed by medical claims, leaving less available to cover administration and generate operating profit. UnitedHealth therefore needs to demonstrate that pricing adjustments, benefit redesign and tighter management of less attractive business lines are sufficient to offset medical cost inflation. Bullish scenario A better-than-expected MCR, alongside evidence of effective cost control, could support confidence that management's restructuring measures are gaining traction. If operating profit improves despite lower membership, investors may become more comfortable with the company's ability to restore sustainable profitability. The potential surprise lies in execution: the market may be focused on declining membership and elevated medical costs while underestimating the benefits of operational changes. Bearish scenario Higher-than-expected claims, weaker pricing discipline or difficulties managing government healthcare programmes could undermine the recovery. Changes in Medicare Advantage plan ratings also introduce uncertainty around competitiveness and future quality-related payments. The latest ratings and their financial consequences need to be assessed alongside enrolment trends, benefit design and the timing of applicable quality bonuses. UnitedHealth outlook The earnings reaction will likely depend less on headline revenue than on the relationship between medical costs, operating margins and management guidance. A credible improvement in the cost ratio could strengthen the recovery narrative. Conversely, evidence that medical cost pressure is persisting faster than pricing can compensate would challenge expectations for a significant rebound in profitability. 2. Charles Schwab (SCHW): Net Interest Income Holds the Key Charles Schwab enters the reporting period with relatively optimistic earnings expectations. The supplied consensus estimates point to approximately 26% year-over-year growth in adjusted earnings per share and around 17% growth in net revenue. Trading activity is another important factor, with market expectations anticipating substantial year-over-year growth. Higher market volatility can encourage client activity, although the effect on revenue depends on the mix of products traded, customer behaviour and the company's ability to monetise activity. However, net interest income may prove more important than trading revenue in determining whether Schwab delivers a meaningful positive surprise. The Net Interest Income Opportunity Schwab's business model is influenced by the relationship between customer assets, interest earned on investments and loans, and the cost of funding those assets. As customer assets increase, the company may have greater opportunities to generate interest income. Yet the outcome depends on the composition of client balances, deposit flows, funding costs and prevailing interest rates. The supplied market outlook identifies improving net interest economics as a central earnings driver, with a year-end net interest margin expectation of approximately 3.25% at the lower end of management's guidance range. That creates a potential gap between what investors currently anticipate and what the company may be able to deliver if asset deployment and funding conditions develop favourably. Bullish scenario A stronger-than-expected contribution from net interest income, combined with resilient client assets and trading activity, could support an earnings beat. If management provides a more confident outlook for margins and funding costs, investors may revise their expectations for future profitability upwards. Bearish scenario Deposit competition, higher funding costs or an unfavourable shift in interest rates could limit the recovery in net interest income. Trading revenue could also disappoint if customer activity slows or market volatility fails to translate into stronger monetisation. Even a headline earnings beat may have limited impact if forward guidance falls short of expectations. Charles Schwab outlook The key issue is whether improvements in interest income are sustainable rather than simply the result of favourable short-term market conditions. Investors should pay close attention to net interest income, net interest margin, customer asset trends, deposit balances and management's guidance. These indicators will help determine whether the company's earnings trajectory is stronger than the market currently assumes. 3. LVMH (MC): Luxury Demand Faces a Structural Test LVMH remains exposed to a challenging environment for global luxury goods. Weakness in China, pressure on consumer spending and uncertainty across key international markets have weighed on the sector's outlook. The most important earnings indicator is likely to be the organic performance of the Fashion and Leather Goods division, which includes some of the group's most prominent luxury brands. The issue extends beyond short-term sales fluctuations. Luxury demand is influenced by consumer confidence, household wealth, access to credit, employment conditions and the willingness of customers to make discretionary purchases. The Changing Luxury Consumer A key consideration is that luxury demand is not uniform across income groups. Established brands serve customers with very different levels of purchasing power, and aspirational consumers can be more sensitive to higher living costs, borrowing expenses and economic uncertainty. During earlier periods of economic disruption, accumulated household savings and strong demand for premium goods supported the resilience of parts of the luxury market. A different environment may emerge when savings decline, credit becomes more expensive and employment confidence weakens. These pressures can affect both sales volumes and product mix, potentially forcing companies to rely more heavily on pricing, brand positioning and cost management to protect profitability. Weakness in China and the Middle East may further limit the potential for growth to offset softer demand elsewhere. Bullish scenario LVMH could surprise positively if demand proves more resilient than feared, particularly in Fashion and Leather Goods. Stabilisation in key markets, improving consumer confidence or stronger-than-expected margins could encourage investors to reassess the earnings outlook. A more favourable result would be particularly significant if it demonstrated that the group can maintain pricing power without relying excessively on higher prices or cost reductions. Bearish scenario Further deterioration in luxury spending could weaken organic revenue growth and place pressure on operating margins. If demand falls across multiple customer segments and major geographic markets, cost controls may not be sufficient to protect profitability. A disappointing outlook could also challenge valuations if investors have already assumed that the worst of the slowdown has passed. LVMH outlook The next results will help determine whether the sector is approaching a period of stabilisation or facing a more prolonged adjustment in demand. Investors should focus on organic sales growth, the performance of Fashion and Leather Goods, regional trends and operating margins. Evidence of stabilisation would support the recovery case, while broader weakness across key markets would suggest that earnings expectations remain vulnerable. 4. Travelers (TRV): Can Strong Underwriting Conditions Last? Travelers is a US property and casualty insurance group, rather than a travel company. Its earnings depend on underwriting performance, insurance pricing, claims experience and returns on invested premiums. The supplied market commentary highlights the absence of Atlantic hurricanes through 8 October as a potentially favourable factor for insurers. A quieter catastrophe season can reduce insured losses, but the impact varies by company, geographic exposure, policy structure and other weather-related events. For Travelers, the important question is how favourable claims experience interacts with premium growth, investment income and the competitive insurance market. The Benefits of Lower Catastrophe Losses When major insured events do not occur, insurers may retain a greater share of premiums that would otherwise be used to cover claims. Higher bond yields can also support investment income as insurers reinvest funds over time. These factors may create a favourable earnings environment, although quarterly results depend on the actual timing of claims, reserve adjustments and investment performance. The absence of a major hurricane does not eliminate other sources of catastrophe risk, nor does it guarantee an unusually strong result for every insurer. Bullish scenario Lower catastrophe losses, disciplined underwriting and resilient investment income could support a positive earnings surprise. If premium rates remain firm while claims costs are manageable, Travelers may be able to deliver stronger underwriting profitability without sacrificing pricing discipline. Bearish scenario Favourable weather conditions can encourage competitors to lower premiums in pursuit of market share. If pricing becomes more aggressive, the industry may experience margin pressure even as claims remain relatively low. Insurance demand and customer retention may also change as policyholders reassess coverage and costs. In addition, investors may already have incorporated much of the benefit from favourable catastrophe experience into share prices. Travelers outlook The earnings report should be assessed through underwriting margins, premium growth, catastrophe losses, reserve development and investment income. A strong quarter may support the share price, but the durability of that performance will depend on pricing discipline and the balance between risk selection and growth. The absence of major losses in one period should not be treated as a reliable predictor of future catastrophe claims. Which Company Has the Greatest Potential to Surprise? The four companies offer different types of earnings uncertainty. UnitedHealth Group: The greatest potential for a positive reassessment lies in evidence that cost-control measures can restore margins despite weaker membership. Charles Schwab: The key upside opportunity is stronger net interest income and a better-than-expected margin outlook. LVMH: The principal question is whether luxury demand is stabilising or whether current expectations underestimate the pressure on sales and profitability. Travelers: The focus is on the quality of underwriting results and whether favourable claims conditions can translate into sustainable returns. An earnings surprise does not necessarily mean that reported profits exceed consensus. A company can beat headline estimates but fall sharply if guidance disappoints, margins deteriorate or management signals that favourable conditions are unlikely to continue. Conversely, a company may deliver an apparently weak quarter but gain investor support if the result is better than feared and the outlook improves. The most useful distinction is between the reported numbers, the expectations already reflected in the share price and the implications for future earnings. The Wider Market Context: Interest Rates, Oil and AI The earnings season is unfolding against a backdrop of uncertainty about monetary policy, energy prices and the sustainability of investment in AI infrastructure. Interest rates affect businesses through financing costs, consumer demand, investment returns and equity valuations. Healthcare companies must manage medical cost inflation, financial institutions are sensitive to the relationship between asset yields and funding costs, luxury brands depend on discretionary spending, and insurers balance investment income against claims and underwriting risks. Oil prices add another layer of uncertainty by influencing transport costs, inflation expectations and consumer purchasing power. Meanwhile, continued investment in AI may support parts of the economy while raising questions about capital allocation, valuations and the eventual returns on technology spending. These crosscurrents make company-specific guidance especially important. Investors will be looking for evidence that businesses can protect profitability even if economic conditions remain uneven. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The strongest earnings opportunities often emerge when investor expectations and underlying business conditions diverge. In the current environment, that divergence may be more important than whether a company simply reports growth or a decline in profits. UnitedHealth needs to demonstrate that operational improvements can offset healthcare cost pressure. Charles Schwab must show that its interest-income recovery is durable. LVMH faces a more difficult test of consumer demand and pricing power, while Travelers must demonstrate that favourable underwriting conditions are translating into quality earnings rather than temporary benefits. The market reaction will depend on both the numbers and the forward outlook. A positive surprise can be short-lived if management guidance exposes new risks, while cautious expectations can create room for a stronger response when a company delivers credible evidence of improvement. Investors should therefore look beyond headline earnings per share and assess margins, cash flow, customer trends, balance-sheet resilience and management commentary. In an unsettled market, these factors will help distinguish temporary improvements from sustainable changes in corporate performance. Disclaimer This article is for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Earnings estimates and market expectations may change, and actual results can differ materially from forecasts. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances before making investment decisions.

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October 11, 2026

Lumentum Stock Rises as AI Infrastructure Demand Outpaces Supply

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ: LITE) is drawing renewed investor attention as demand for optical components used in artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to exceed available production capacity. The company’s latest comments suggest that supply constraints could persist for several years, potentially supporting pricing power and revenue visibility across parts of the photonics industry. Shares of Lumentum rose more than 6% during Friday’s session on 9 October, recovering some of the previous session’s decline. The move followed comments from CEO Michael Hurlston indicating that the company’s production capacity was fully booked through early 2029. The update highlights a growing challenge for the AI industry: investment in data centres and computing infrastructure is expanding rapidly, but the specialised optical components required to connect increasingly powerful systems remain difficult to produce at sufficient scale. For investors, the opportunity lies in the potential for sustained demand and stronger pricing. The risk is whether manufacturers can convert that demand into profitable growth without excessive capital expenditure or operational bottlenecks. Market Snapshot FactorMarket implicationLumentum (LITE)Strong demand visibility, with production capacity constrainedAI infrastructureIncreasing requirements for high-speed optical connectivityPhotonics sectorPotential benefits for suppliers able to meet unmet demandProduction outlookCapacity expansion, manufacturing costs and delivery schedules remain criticalInvestor focusMargins, cash flow, capital expenditure and valuation Lumentum: Production Capacity Booked Through 2029 Lumentum’s latest capacity outlook points to a substantial imbalance between demand and available supply. According to the reported comments from its CEO, the company expects to be unable to meet as much as 70% of demand for many of its products in 2027, while shortages affecting certain components could persist into 2028. The outlook represents an improvement in the visibility of future demand compared with expectations six months earlier, when management anticipated full capacity utilisation through 2028. For the market, the significance extends beyond a single quarterly earnings period. When production capacity is booked well in advance, investors may gain greater confidence in the demand pipeline. If customers continue competing for limited supply, manufacturers may also gain negotiating leverage over pricing and product allocation. However, a full order book does not automatically translate into higher profits. Revenue recognition depends on actual deliveries, while margins remain sensitive to manufacturing costs, product mix, customer agreements and the expense of expanding production. The next stage of the investment story will therefore depend on how effectively Lumentum converts strong demand into delivered products and sustainable cash generation. Why Photonics Is Becoming Critical to AI Infrastructure The rapid development of AI is increasing the amount of data that must move between processors, memory systems, networking equipment and storage infrastructure. As data centres grow in scale and complexity, conventional electrical interconnects face increasing challenges relating to bandwidth, power consumption, signal integrity and heat. Optical technologies use light to transmit information and can provide important advantages in suitable high-speed networking applications. Lumentum operates in photonics, supplying technologies including lasers and optical components used across communications and other markets. These products form part of the infrastructure needed to move growing volumes of data efficiently. The strategic importance of optical connectivity is increasing as AI infrastructure expands. More powerful processors alone cannot deliver the full benefits of large-scale computing if the systems connecting them cannot transfer data efficiently. This creates a potential long-term opportunity for suppliers of optical components, lasers and related technologies. However, the pace of adoption will depend on system design, customer investment, competing technologies and the economics of deploying optical solutions at scale. Nvidia’s Investment Highlights the Strategic Importance of Optics Nvidia’s reported USD 2 billion investment in Lumentum earlier in 2026 further highlights the strategic relevance of optical technology to the AI supply chain. The development reflects a broader industry priority: improving connectivity as computing infrastructure becomes more demanding. Faster data transmission, greater bandwidth and improved energy efficiency are increasingly important considerations when designing large AI systems. For Lumentum, strategic interest from major participants in the AI ecosystem could reinforce the importance of its technology and relationships within the supply chain. Nevertheless, strategic investment should not be interpreted as a guarantee of future earnings or share-price appreciation. Investors still need to evaluate commercial terms, customer concentration, execution risks and the extent to which expected growth is already reflected in the valuation. Sector-Wide Gains: Applied Optoelectronics and Coherent Lumentum’s capacity constraints may also have implications for competitors. Shares of Applied Optoelectronics reportedly gained approximately 7% during the session, while Coherent advanced around 5%. These moves suggest that investors were assessing the possibility that unmet demand could benefit other optical component manufacturers. When a major supplier cannot satisfy all customer requirements, buyers may seek alternative suppliers, subject to technical compatibility, qualification processes, production availability and commercial agreements. This creates an opportunity for competing companies with suitable products and spare capacity. However, demand does not automatically transfer between suppliers. Optical components can involve lengthy qualification cycles, specific performance requirements and close integration with customer systems. The companies best positioned to benefit will be those that can deliver the required products at the necessary scale while maintaining quality, competitive costs and acceptable margins. The Bullish Case: Demand Visibility and Pricing Power The positive investment case for Lumentum and the wider photonics industry rests on several factors. Persistent AI infrastructure investment: Continued expansion of AI data centres could sustain demand for high-speed optical connectivity. Limited near-term supply: Manufacturing constraints may support pricing and give established suppliers greater visibility over production schedules. Technology requirements: Increasing bandwidth and efficiency requirements could accelerate adoption of advanced optical components. Potential competitor opportunities: Companies with suitable products and available manufacturing capacity may capture demand that constrained suppliers cannot fulfil. If these conditions persist, the sector could benefit from a prolonged period of strong demand. The key is whether suppliers can translate that demand into improving operating margins and free cash flow rather than simply higher order volumes. The Bearish Case: Capacity Expansion and Valuation Risk Despite the favourable demand outlook, several risks remain. Capital expenditure: Expanding specialised manufacturing capacity can require substantial investment in equipment, facilities, process development and workforce capabilities. Execution risk: New capacity may take time to commission, qualify and bring to commercially viable production levels. Customer concentration: Dependence on a limited number of large customers can create exposure to changes in purchasing plans, product design or negotiating power. Technology changes: Advances in optical architectures and competing connectivity solutions may alter the mix of products required by the market. Valuation pressure: After substantial gains in AI-related shares, even strong operational results may disappoint if investors have already priced in aggressive growth assumptions. Supply shortages can support pricing, but they can also limit revenue by preventing companies from fulfilling orders. The market will increasingly distinguish between businesses that have strong demand and those that can profitably meet it. Lumentum Stock Forecast: What Investors Should Watch The outlook for Lumentum will depend on whether production capacity, pricing and demand develop in line with management’s expectations. In the near term, investors are likely to focus on updates to production schedules, customer commitments, revenue guidance and margins. Evidence that the company is successfully expanding output without excessive cost inflation would strengthen the positive outlook. A more cautious scenario could emerge if capacity expansion is delayed, customers adjust spending plans or rising capital requirements weaken cash generation. A broader slowdown in AI infrastructure investment would also challenge expectations for sustained demand. Rather than relying solely on the latest share-price reaction, investors should monitor several operational indicators: The timing and scale of planned capacity additions. Revenue growth and product mix. Gross-margin trends and manufacturing efficiency. Capital expenditure and free cash flow. Customer concentration and order visibility. Demand trends across the wider optical components industry. The central question is whether Lumentum can turn its current supply constraints into a durable competitive advantage. Supply Outlook: Can Manufacturers Keep Pace With AI Demand? The imbalance between demand and supply could remain an important theme across the photonics sector. However, the duration of shortages will depend on how quickly manufacturers expand production and how customers adapt their infrastructure plans. Additional capacity may gradually ease supply constraints, but the process is not necessarily straightforward. Specialised manufacturing equipment, technical expertise, production yields and customer qualification requirements can limit how quickly output increases. If demand continues to outpace supply, established suppliers could retain favourable pricing conditions. If capacity expands faster than demand or customers reduce investment, the balance could shift towards greater competition and margin pressure. Investors should therefore look beyond industry growth forecasts and assess each company’s ability to execute its own production strategy. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets Lumentum illustrates an increasingly important feature of the AI investment cycle: the bottlenecks are no longer limited to processors and computing capacity. Connectivity, power consumption and the movement of data are becoming equally important considerations in the development of large-scale AI infrastructure. The reported production outlook provides a positive signal for demand visibility and reinforces the strategic importance of optical technology. It also creates potential opportunities for competitors that can supply products in short supply. However, the distinction between demand and profitability remains critical. A company can have more orders than it can fulfil while still facing pressure from manufacturing costs, investment requirements and operational complexity. The next phase of the sector’s performance will depend on execution. Investors will want evidence that capacity is expanding, margins remain resilient and strong demand is translating into sustainable cash flow. For the wider AI market, photonics is becoming an increasingly important part of the infrastructure story. For Lumentum and its competitors, the challenge is to convert that strategic relevance into long-term shareholder value without allowing elevated expectations to outrun operating performance. Disclaimer This article is for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Share prices can be volatile, and investments in technology and AI-related companies carry risks, including valuation, competition, execution and capital expenditure risks. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances before making investment decisions.

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October 11, 2026

Three Markets to Watch Next Week: Gold, GBP/USD and the S&P 500

Contributor: Currency Hedger | Market Analysis: Louis Roche, Today Markets Financial markets enter the week of 12 October with three major forces competing for investors’ attention: escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the outlook for US inflation and the opening of the third-quarter US corporate earnings season. Oil prices remain a critical transmission channel between geopolitical developments and the wider economy. Disruptions or threats to energy supplies can increase inflation expectations, push government bond yields higher and complicate the outlook for central banks. At the same time, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Wednesday, 14 October, will provide an important test of whether energy-related price pressures are translating into broader inflation. The opening earnings reports from major US banks will provide another perspective on economic conditions, particularly consumer borrowing, credit quality, investment banking activity and financial-market demand. UK GDP, trade and industrial production data due on Thursday will also influence sterling as markets reassess the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Against this backdrop, three markets stand out: gold, GBP/USD and the S&P 500. Market Snapshot MarketMain driverKey factor to watchGold (XAU/USD)Treasury yields, inflation and safe-haven demandUS CPI and real yieldsGBP/USDRelative US–UK interest-rate expectationsUS inflation and UK economic dataS&P 500 (US500)Earnings growth, inflation and risk appetiteMajor-bank results and CPI 1. Gold (XAU/USD): Can the Recovery Survive Higher Yields? Gold has attracted renewed attention as investors balance geopolitical uncertainty against the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. The metal’s direction increasingly depends on the relationship between energy prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields and demand for defensive assets. Gold can benefit when investors seek protection against geopolitical instability or uncertainty surrounding the global economy. However, the relationship is not always straightforward. When oil prices rise sharply and markets anticipate tighter monetary policy, Treasury yields and the US dollar can strengthen, increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Wednesday’s US inflation report is therefore a major near-term catalyst. Market expectations have pointed towards an annual headline CPI reading of approximately 3.6%–3.7%. The actual result, the underlying components and any revisions to the inflation outlook will matter more than the headline forecast alone. Bullish scenario Gold could extend its recovery if inflation comes in softer than expected, Treasury yields retreat and the dollar loses momentum. Renewed geopolitical escalation or evidence that investors are increasing defensive allocations could provide additional support. Continued investment demand, including flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, would strengthen the recovery narrative if accompanied by improving price momentum. Bearish scenario A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy for longer or consider further tightening. Higher real yields and a firmer dollar would create a more challenging environment for gold. A sustained reduction in geopolitical risk could also weaken safe-haven demand, particularly if energy prices and inflation expectations decline at the same time. Gold forecast: what to watch The immediate outlook is likely to remain sensitive to US inflation and Treasury-market reactions. A softer CPI report combined with falling yields would improve the prospects of a sustained recovery. A hotter reading accompanied by rising real yields would increase the risk of renewed selling pressure. Investors should distinguish between a short-term technical rebound and a more durable change in the broader trend. The response of yields and the dollar after the inflation release may provide a clearer signal than the headline number alone. 2. GBP/USD: Dollar Strength Meets a Critical UK Data Week GBP/USD enters the week with the US dollar remaining highly sensitive to inflation expectations, Treasury yields and geopolitical developments. Sterling, meanwhile, faces an important domestic data test as markets assess the health of the UK economy and the likely direction of Bank of England policy. The US CPI report on Wednesday will be a central influence on the pair. A stronger reading could lift US yields and reinforce the dollar, while a softer result could reduce pressure on currencies such as sterling. Thursday, 15 October, brings a series of UK releases, including monthly GDP, trade figures and industrial production. These indicators will help investors assess whether economic activity is holding up despite pressure from energy costs and restrictive financial conditions. US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, also scheduled for Thursday, will provide a further indication of price pressures at the producer level. Energy-sensitive components could be particularly relevant following the recent volatility in oil markets. Bullish scenario for GBP/USD Sterling could recover if UK economic activity proves more resilient than expected and the US inflation report reduces expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Stronger UK output and industrial production could improve sentiment towards the pound, particularly if US Treasury yields ease and the dollar weakens across major currency pairs. A sustained recovery would be more convincing if supported by improving price structure and follow-through buying rather than a brief reaction to individual data releases. Bearish scenario for GBP/USD The pair could come under renewed pressure if US inflation exceeds expectations and pushes Treasury yields higher. A stronger dollar could outweigh otherwise stable UK data. Sterling would face additional headwinds if the UK releases point to weak growth, subdued industrial activity or deteriorating external demand. Higher energy prices could further complicate the outlook by increasing inflation while weighing on household purchasing power and business costs. GBP/USD forecast: what to watch The pair’s next directional move is likely to depend on the difference between US and UK economic surprises, rather than either country’s data in isolation. A softer US CPI reading combined with resilient UK growth would support a recovery scenario. Conversely, sticky US inflation and disappointing UK activity would favour renewed downside pressure. For businesses with sterling-denominated receipts or dollar-linked costs, this environment also highlights the importance of monitoring exchange-rate exposure ahead of major data releases. 3. S&P 500 (US500): Inflation and Bank Earnings Set the Tone The S&P 500 faces a significant test as the market weighs the implications of US inflation against the first major earnings reports of the third-quarter reporting season. Major US banks are scheduled to report on Tuesday and Wednesday, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Their results will provide information about trading activity, investment banking demand, lending conditions, deposit costs and the financial health of customers. The earnings outlook matters because share prices reflect not only current profitability but also expectations for future growth. Strong reported earnings may fail to support share prices if management guidance disappoints or investors believe the results are already reflected in valuations. Wednesday’s CPI report adds another layer of uncertainty. Persistent inflation could place upward pressure on bond yields and reduce the valuation support available to equities, particularly growth-oriented shares whose valuations are sensitive to changes in discount rates. Bullish scenario The S&P 500 could find support if inflation is softer than expected and major banks deliver resilient results alongside constructive guidance. Evidence of stable credit quality, healthy client activity and continued demand for financial services would help reinforce the view that the US economy can absorb restrictive financial conditions without a sharp deterioration in growth. If Treasury yields ease and investors regain confidence in the earnings outlook, buying interest could broaden beyond a small group of large technology stocks. Bearish scenario A hotter CPI reading combined with cautious bank guidance would create a more difficult backdrop for equities. Investors may become concerned about rising funding costs, weaker borrowing demand, deteriorating credit quality or pressure on corporate margins. Higher yields could also increase the risk of valuation compression, particularly in interest-rate-sensitive sectors. If geopolitical tensions intensify at the same time, the combination of higher energy costs and reduced risk appetite could trigger a broader pullback. S&P 500 forecast: what to watch The index’s near-term direction is likely to be shaped by the interaction between inflation and earnings quality. A benign CPI report and reassuring bank commentary would strengthen the case for further upside. A combination of persistent inflation, rising yields and cautious corporate guidance would increase the risk of a correction or consolidation. Investors should also monitor market breadth. A rally supported by a wider range of sectors would provide a stronger signal than one driven by a narrow group of large-cap stocks. Geopolitics and Oil: The Common Thread Across All Three Markets Middle Eastern tensions remain an important source of uncertainty for financial markets. Any disruption to oil production, shipping or export routes could push energy prices higher, affecting inflation expectations and the outlook for monetary policy. Political statements about avoiding further escalation can influence sentiment, but they do not eliminate the risk of sudden changes in policy or events on the ground. Markets may therefore continue to react sharply to headlines concerning Iran, regional security and the movement of energy supplies. The implications differ across asset classes: Gold: May benefit from safe-haven demand but face pressure if higher yields and a stronger dollar dominate. GBP/USD: May be influenced by changes in the dollar, energy-related inflation and the relative outlook for US and UK interest rates. S&P 500: May face higher input costs and valuation pressure if oil-driven inflation pushes yields upwards, although energy-sector strength can partly offset weakness elsewhere. The key question is whether geopolitical developments remain a source of temporary volatility or develop into a sustained supply shock with broader economic consequences. Analysis — Louis Roche, Today Markets The coming week presents a test of how resilient financial markets are to the combination of energy-related inflation risk, central-bank uncertainty and corporate earnings expectations. Gold is caught between defensive demand and the pressure that higher yields can create. GBP/USD is particularly sensitive to the difference between US and UK economic data, making the combination of CPI, PPI and UK activity figures important for short-term direction. The S&P 500, meanwhile, must demonstrate that earnings growth can support valuations even if inflation remains uncomfortable. The most important signal may come from the interaction between the releases rather than any single number. Strong bank earnings may not be enough to sustain equities if inflation pushes yields sharply higher. Similarly, a softer CPI reading may not guarantee a lasting gold recovery if geopolitical risks ease and the dollar remains firm. Investors should monitor Treasury yields, the dollar, oil prices and the market’s reaction to corporate guidance alongside the headline releases. In a week with several high-impact catalysts, disciplined risk management and a clear understanding of exposure are essential. Coming Sessions: The Key Questions Gold: Will lower yields and defensive demand support a more sustained recovery? GBP/USD: Will UK activity data improve sterling’s outlook relative to the dollar? S&P 500: Can bank earnings support equities if inflation remains elevated? Oil: Will geopolitical risks create further supply concerns and renewed inflation pressure? Interest rates: Will the combined data shift expectations for the Federal Reserve and Bank of England? The direction of all three markets will depend on how investors balance geopolitical risk against the inflation and growth outlook. Confirmation from price action, bond yields and the dollar will be important before treating any initial market reaction as a lasting trend. Disclaimer This article is for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of future performance. Financial markets involve risk, and prices can move sharply in response to economic data, geopolitical developments and changes in market expectations.

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October 9, 2026

Market shrugs off OpenAI fears as oil falls, and the LSE gets a boost

Key takeaways Airtel Money makes its London debut in the largest IPO since 2021 with a £5.3bn valuation. Oil prices decline 1.4% to around 102 USD per barrel after political updates regarding Iran. US Treasury yields drop following oil price declines and economic adjustments. OpenAI reports lower revenue estimates of 70bn USD, triggering a sell-off in tech stocks. SpaceX enters the mobile carrier business, putting downward pressure on US telecom shares. Risk appetite is improving as we reach the end of the week. The oil price is lower by 1.4%, and Brent crude is trading around $102 per barrel. Relief in the oil price came after President Trump reversed his former position and said that he won’t bomb Iran before the US midterms. Airtel Money is London’s biggest IPO since 2021 This is not the only good news, the FTSE 100 is set to rise later this morning, as mobile payments firm Airtel Money is set to make its debut on the LSE later today. This is expected to be the largest London IPO since 2021, and the company is valued at £5.3bn, which is big enough for it to be included in the FTSE 100. It is hoping to raise £529mn from the listing. This will be a key test for the London market, and hopes are high that this will revitalise London’s position as a hub for corporate listings. The company will trade freely from next week, but initial indications look like demand for Airtel Money is strong. Trump poses major risk for 2027 With the Midterm elections now less than a month away, news that Trump won’t bomb Iran over the next 4 weeks is unlikely to soothe investors for long, as bombing could resume into 2027. This is now a major risk for the new year. Oil and Bond market relationship remains strong However, the decline in the oil price, which peaked at $105.75 on Thursday, did push bond yields lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped sharply. It had traded as high as 5.35%, and is now trading around 5.22%. Early trading on Friday suggests that the bias remains lower for bond yields. Will the UK 30-year bond close the week above 6%? There have been some wild swings in bond yields in the US, UK and Europe this week. On a weekly basis, French, Italian and US yields are lower, UK yields have risen over the week and the 30-year yield is hovering around 6% as we move towards the end of the week. A weekly close above this level could add to fiscal concerns in the UK, and BOE governor Andrew Bailey gave a guarded warning to the chancellor about extra spending commitments ahead of the Budget in a speech on Thursday evening. OpenAI jolts the tech stock rally Stocks were under pressure on Thursday, and tech stocks sold off sharply. The Nasdaq declined more than 1%. This was led by the chip makers, which fell more than 3%. The decline was down to OpenAI’s latest annualised revenue figures. It announced that revenues would be $70bn for this year, driven by enterprise sales. This is $20bn less than some previous estimates. AI trade scepticism never seems to last for long The revenue estimate spooked the market late on Thursday, as questions about the sustainability of the AI capex boom came into focus ahead of earnings season. However, as we have seen since the summer, the AI trade is attracting waves of inflows coupled with waves of outflows in recent months. Although there is some scepticism about the scale of the AI build out, the costs involved and whether the payoff will be big enough to justify the spend, it never lasts for long. The scepticism over OpenAI’s revenue might evaporate on Friday, and US equity futures are pointing to a higher open later today. However, signs of cooling AI growth and a fall in Treasury yields could trigger a rotation back into cyclical sectors of the stock market, allowing non-tech names the chance to play catch up. Delta earnings in focus As we move to the end of the week, the focus is likely to shift to earnings season. Delta Airlines will kick things off today, and the market expects the company to report Q3 revenue of $18.92bn. Delta’s report will be an important read on consumer strength, especially the high end consumer, and how companies are coping with higher energy and fuel costs. Mobile operators face trouble from SpaceX There was also news from SpaceX, after it announced that it was moving into the mobile carrier business. This is weighing heavily on the share prices of US mobile providers such as AT&T, Verizon and T Mobile. T Mobile’s share price was down nearly 7% in the post-market trading on Thursday night, and the market sees SpaceX as a formidable competitor. It will be worth watching to see how European mobile providers are affected by this news. Deutsche Telecom, Vodafone, Orange, and Telefonica will be in focus today.

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Markets

October 9, 2026

Copper Market Outlook: Chilean Supply Risks Support Prices as US Tariff Uncertainty Persists

Copper prices recover towards $6.60 per pound as renewed supply concerns in Chile provide support following the previous session's losses. Industrial action at Antofagasta's Centinela project raises the possibility of future production disruption, while Chile's latest production figures point to weakness in output from the world's leading copper-producing country. The market remains caught between tightening supply risks and uncertainty over demand. The potential for US tariffs on refined copper continues to influence trade flows and inventory positioning, while activity in China, the world's largest copper consumer, remains subdued following its national holiday. A return of Chinese buyers to the market could support restocking, but sustained price gains will depend on whether demand strengthens enough to absorb available material. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest market signalCopper futuresApproaching $6.60/lbPrice directionRecovering after the previous session's lossesChilean supplyProduction disruption risks increasingCentinela projectTwo unions have launched industrial actionProduction guidanceAntofagasta maintains its output guidanceUS tariff policyDecision on potential refined-copper tariffs remains pendingChinese demandActivity subdued after the national holidayKey near-term catalystsLabour negotiations, US tariff policy and Chinese restocking Price Action and Market Structure Copper futures climb towards $6.60 per pound, recovering part of the previous session's decline. The rebound reflects renewed attention to supply risks in Chile and the possibility that industrial action could disrupt production if the dispute continues. The price response highlights copper's sensitivity to potential interruptions at major mines. Even when production has not yet fallen, the prospect of reduced output can encourage buyers to reassess future availability and prompt traders to adjust their positions. However, the recovery does not yet establish a sustained upward trend. Antofagasta continues to maintain its output guidance, while uncertainty over US tariff policy and the pace of Chinese demand leaves the market exposed to shifts in sentiment. The ability to hold recent gains will depend on whether supply concerns translate into actual production losses and whether physical demand improves in the coming sessions. Chilean Supply Risks and Centinela Industrial Action Industrial action by two unions at Antofagasta's Centinela project is a key source of near-term uncertainty. The unions began their action on Wednesday and have warned that production could start to be affected within approximately two weeks. The timing is important because the market may begin pricing in potential supply losses before any measurable reduction in output appears in production data. If negotiations fail and the dispute escalates, the risk of interrupted mining activity could provide further support to copper prices. Antofagasta, however, maintains its existing production guidance. This indicates that the company has not revised its stated output outlook in response to the industrial action, making the duration and operational impact of the dispute crucial variables. Traders will need to distinguish between the risk of disruption and confirmed losses. A prolonged strike that materially reduces output would carry a different market implication from industrial action that is resolved before production is affected. Chilean Copper Production Weakens Chile has also reported that copper production fell in August to its lowest level since February 2011. The reported decline reinforces concerns about the supply outlook from a country central to global copper production. If weaker output persists, it could reduce the availability of mined copper and increase the importance of production performance elsewhere. The August figure also adds context to the Centinela dispute. The market is assessing industrial action against a backdrop of already weak national production, although the reported monthly decline should not automatically be attributed to the current labour dispute. The next indication of whether the supply picture is deteriorating further will come from subsequent production data and updates on operations at major Chilean mines. US Tariff Policy and Copper Trade Flows Uncertainty over potential US tariffs on refined copper remains another important driver. The Trump administration has yet to decide whether to impose the proposed duties. Earlier tariff threats encouraged traders to redirect copper shipments towards US warehouses, contributing to the previous rally in prices. Such movements can alter regional inventory availability and create differences between the US market and other global trading centres. If new tariffs are announced, market participants may reassess the economics of shipping copper into the United States, potentially prompting further changes in trade flows and stockpiling behaviour. The ultimate price impact would depend on the tariff structure, implementation details and how producers, traders and consumers respond. If the administration refrains from imposing tariffs, some of the incentive to redirect material towards US warehouses could diminish. However, existing inventory positions and shipping commitments may continue to influence market dynamics even if the policy uncertainty eases. Until a decision is confirmed, tariff-related positioning remains a source of potential volatility rather than a settled change in trade conditions. China Demand and Restocking Potential China's copper market activity remains subdued following a weeklong national holiday. The pause in activity may temporarily limit immediate buying interest, but it also creates the possibility of renewed purchasing as businesses resume normal operations. Restocking could provide support if manufacturers and other consumers return to the market to replenish inventories. The strength of that demand will depend on underlying industrial activity, purchasing requirements and buyers' willingness to accept current prices. The distinction between restocking and stronger end-user consumption is important. A temporary increase in purchases may support prices in the short term without necessarily signalling a sustained improvement in industrial demand. Copper's ability to maintain its recovery will therefore depend partly on whether Chinese buying strengthens in the coming weeks and whether the increase is reflected in broader physical-market activity. Bullish Scenario Several developments could support further gains in copper: Escalating industrial action: A prolonged dispute at Centinela that begins to affect output could intensify concerns about Chilean supply. Continued weakness in Chilean production: Further evidence of declining output could reinforce expectations of tighter mine supply. Stronger Chinese restocking: Renewed buying after the holiday could improve physical demand and support prices. Tariff-related inventory shifts: New US duties or renewed uncertainty could encourage further shipment redirection and regional stockpiling. Stronger price momentum: A sustained move above recent trading levels could encourage additional buying if supported by physical fundamentals. A more durable bullish trend would require evidence that supply risks are becoming material or that Chinese demand is improving beyond a temporary restocking phase. Bearish Scenario Copper could face renewed pressure if supply concerns ease or demand remains subdued: Resolution of the Centinela dispute: A settlement before production is materially affected could remove a near-term source of supply risk. Production guidance maintained: Continued confidence in Antofagasta's output outlook could limit expectations of immediate shortages. Weak Chinese purchasing: If activity remains subdued after the holiday, restocking may fail to provide the anticipated support. No new US tariffs: A decision not to impose duties could reduce the incentive for further shipment redirection and stockpiling. Profit-taking after the recovery: If prices fail to sustain their rebound, traders may reduce positions established during the earlier rally. If supply disruptions remain potential rather than realised and demand does not strengthen, copper could struggle to extend its recovery towards and beyond recent highs. Copper Price Outlook Copper's near-term direction depends on the interaction between Chilean supply uncertainty, US trade policy and China's return to the market. The recovery towards $6.60 per pound suggests that supply risks remain influential. However, the market still needs confirmation that industrial action will materially reduce production or that Chinese buyers are returning with sufficient strength to support a sustained advance. A prolonged Centinela dispute, further weakness in Chilean output or stronger Chinese restocking could help prices extend their recovery. Conversely, a labour settlement, continued subdued demand or a reduction in tariff uncertainty could leave copper vulnerable to renewed selling. The $6.60 area is a current reference point rather than a confirmed technical breakout. Traders should assess price behaviour alongside developments in mine production, trade flows and physical demand rather than treating the recovery alone as confirmation of a new trend. Supply Outlook Supply remains the principal source of near-term upside risk. Chile's reported August production decline and the industrial action at Centinela create uncertainty over the amount of copper likely to be available in coming weeks. The key issue is whether these developments lead to sustained production losses. Antofagasta's decision to maintain its output guidance offers a counterpoint to concerns about disruption, making further operational updates particularly important. US tariff policy adds another layer of uncertainty because changes in trade incentives can shift where copper is stored and delivered without necessarily changing global mine production. These movements may affect regional availability and price relationships. The broader supply outlook will become clearer as the Centinela dispute develops, Chilean production data are updated and the US administration clarifies its policy on refined copper. Demand Outlook Demand signals are mixed. Chinese activity remains subdued after the national holiday, but a return to normal business operations could create an opportunity for restocking. The sustainability of any recovery will depend on whether purchases reflect immediate inventory needs or a broader improvement in industrial consumption. Stronger physical buying would help offset concerns about demand and provide a more durable foundation for prices. Tariff policy may also influence demand timing. If traders and consumers expect changes in US import costs, purchasing and inventory decisions could be brought forward or delayed, adding volatility to regional demand. For now, Chinese restocking remains a potential source of support rather than a confirmed driver of stronger global consumption. Louis Roche Analysis Copper is trading at the intersection of two competing forces: the risk of supply disruption and uncertainty about the strength of end-user demand. The Centinela industrial action matters because it introduces a potential reduction in supply at a time when Chile's national production has already shown weakness. However, Antofagasta's maintained output guidance means the market still needs evidence that the dispute will materially affect production. US tariff policy complicates the picture by influencing shipment destinations and inventory positioning. These trade flows can create price pressure or support in particular regions even when global consumption has not changed significantly. China is the other major variable. A return of buyers after the holiday could help prices hold their recovery, but restocking alone would not necessarily confirm a stronger demand cycle. My assessment is that copper retains near-term upside risk while Chilean supply remains uncertain, but the recovery towards $6.60 per pound needs confirmation from either actual production disruption or stronger physical demand. If the labour dispute is resolved and Chinese buying remains muted, the market could give back part of its recent gains. Coming Sessions: What Traders Should Watch Centinela labour negotiations: Monitor whether the industrial action continues and whether production guidance changes. Chile's production data: Look for evidence that the August decline is temporary or part of a more persistent weakness in output. US tariff decision: Watch for confirmation of whether refined copper will face new duties and how the policy will be implemented. Chinese restocking: Assess whether buying activity improves after the national holiday. Regional inventory movements: Track how tariff expectations influence copper shipments and warehouse stocks. Price behaviour near $6.60: Watch whether the recovery holds and gains broader fundamental confirmation. Today Markets View Copper's recovery is supported by supply uncertainty in Chile, but the market remains vulnerable to changes in tariff expectations and the pace of Chinese demand. The Centinela dispute and Chile's weaker August production figure warrant attention, although the scale of any future supply loss remains uncertain. A sustained advance will require clearer evidence of disrupted output, stronger restocking or continued tariff-related changes in trade flows. Without that confirmation, the current recovery may remain vulnerable to profit-taking and renewed selling. Currency Hedger View Currency movements can influence the cost of copper for international buyers and the revenues received by producers selling into overseas markets. Exchange-rate changes may also affect trade competitiveness, procurement costs and the economics of cross-border commodity transactions. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger – Foreign-exchange perspective, contributing to Today Markets' copper market analysis. Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Forex Trading

October 9, 2026

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains near 1.1230 on softer USD; bearish bias persists

EUR/USD gains follow-through traction as the overnight slide in US bond yields weighs on the USD. Geopolitical risks and a hawkish Fed limit USD losses, while France’s debt crisis caps the Euro. The bearish technical setup also warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation. The EUR/USD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day, rising to the 1.1225-1.1230 area during the Asian session on Friday amid a weak US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, remain confined within a range held since the beginning of this month, warranting some caution for bulls. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US would refrain from resuming military strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, which, along with the overnight slide in US bond yields, prompts some USD profit-taking. The geopolitical risk premium, however, remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt should help limit deeper USD losses and cap the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, concerns about France’s deepening debt levels and political gridlock ahead of next year’s election might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the shared currency. This, along with a bearish technical setup, suggests that strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the EUR/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and is positioned for an extension of this week's modest recovery from the 1.1160 region, or the lowest level since May 2025. Against the backdrop of a fall from the August monthly swing high, the recent range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50.4 signals neutral momentum after recovering from oversold readings, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned modestly positive, hinting at a potential pause rather than a clear reversal against the prevailing overhead resistance. Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the 1.1280 region, or the top boundary of the trading range. This is closely followed by the 1.1300 mark, which, if cleared, could trigger a short-covering rally to the next relevant hurdle near the 1.1355-1.1360 zone. The move up, however, might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the USD. Nevertheless, the broader setup reinforces a broader downside structure. On the downside, weakness below the 1.1200 mark will expose the trading range support near the 1.1160 region. Failure to defend the said area will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for deeper losses. EUR/USD 4-hour chart

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Markets

October 9, 2026

Corn Market Outlook: US Crop Estimates, Export Demand and Harvest Weather Drive Price Direction

US corn futures face modest pressure as traders assess export demand, harvest weather and expectations for the upcoming USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. December futures settle at $5.00¼ per bushel, while the national average cash corn price slips to $4.62¾. Weekly export sales improve 43.6% from the previous week, offering a measure of support. However, sales remain substantially below the same period last year, highlighting uncertainty over the strength of international demand. Large purchases by South Korean importers and continued buying from Mexico provide encouraging signals, but the market remains focused on whether demand can absorb available supplies. Weather conditions may temporarily slow harvesting in parts of the eastern Midwest, while drier conditions elsewhere could allow fieldwork to progress. The next major catalyst is the USDA report, with analysts expecting a lower US yield and production estimate but a significant increase in projected ending stocks. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest readingDecember 2026 corn$5.00¼/bushel, down 1¾ centsMarch 2027 corn$5.15¼/bushel, down 1¾ centsMay 2027 corn$5.22¼/bushel, down 2 centsUS national average cash corn$4.62¾/bushel, down 1½ centsWeekly US corn export sales769,468 MTWeekly sales changeUp 43.6% week-on-weekYear-on-year sales comparisonDown 65.9%Expected US yield177.8 bushels per acreExpected US production15.733 billion bushelsExpected US ending stocks1.693 billion bushelsSouth Korean tender purchases324,000 MT Crop and inventory figures are analyst survey expectations, not confirmed USDA estimates. Price Action and Market Structure Corn futures finish lower across the listed contracts, with December and March 2027 futures each losing 1¾ cents. May 2027 corn declines 2 cents, settling at $5.22¼ per bushel. The national average cash price falls 1½ cents to $4.62¾, confirming a modest decline in both futures and cash-market values. The relatively small losses suggest that the market is consolidating ahead of important supply data rather than making a decisive move in either direction. Traders must weigh improving weekly sales against the much weaker year-on-year comparison and the possibility of higher ending stocks. Deferred futures remain above the December contract, with March at $5.15¼ and May at $5.22¼. This price structure provides a useful reference for monitoring changing expectations, although the premiums alone do not establish the market's next direction. The key question is whether the USDA report confirms a large supply cushion or reveals a tighter balance than currently anticipated. US Corn Export Demand USDA weekly export sales total 769,468 metric tonnes for the week ending October 1. Sales increase 43.6% from the previous week, indicating a recovery in buying activity over the shorter comparison period. However, sales remain 65.9% below the corresponding week last year. The contrast between the weekly improvement and the year-on-year decline suggests that demand is recovering from a weaker level but has not yet demonstrated the strength seen during the previous marketing year. Mexico is the largest buyer, purchasing 508,800 MT. Colombia accounts for 196,600 MT, while Japan purchases 96,800 MT. Mexico's substantial contribution highlights the importance of established regional trade flows for US corn. Continued buying from Mexico and other major destinations could help absorb harvest supplies, but sustained improvement in total commitments will be needed to materially change the demand outlook. If weekly sales continue to recover, the market may find support. If the improvement proves temporary, the year-on-year shortfall could remain a bearish influence. South Korean Purchases Add Demand Support Several South Korean importers purchase a combined 324,000 MT of corn through overnight tenders. The volume provides an additional sign of international buying interest and may help sentiment as traders assess the outlook for US exports. Large tenders can also indicate that importers are securing supplies for future requirements. The effect on US futures will depend on the origin of the purchased corn, delivery timing and whether the business is reflected in subsequent US export sales or shipment figures. A tender purchase alone should not be treated as confirmation that the full volume will be sourced from the United States. Further Asian buying would provide a stronger demand signal, particularly if it coincides with improving weekly US export sales. Harvest Weather and Field Conditions Weather remains an important short-term variable for US corn supplies. Parts of Indiana and Ohio may receive upwards of an inch of rain as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move through the eastern Midwest. The rainfall could shorten the available harvest window, slow field access and delay the movement of newly harvested corn from farms. Much of the rest of the country is expected to remain dry until Wednesday or Thursday of the following week. A pocket of 1–2 inches of rainfall is forecast across Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas. The market impact will depend on the distribution and timing of the precipitation. Localised harvest delays could temporarily slow the flow of corn into the market, providing limited support to nearby futures. Conversely, dry conditions across much of the production region could allow harvesting to progress and increase the volume of supplies available to buyers. Weather-related support may therefore prove temporary unless rainfall causes more widespread disruption than anticipated. USDA Crop Production Report: Yield and Production Expectations Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the USDA to reduce its US corn yield estimate by 0.7 bushel per acre to 177.8 bushels per acre. Production is expected to decline by 67 million bushels to 15.733 billion bushels. A lower yield and production estimate would normally be supportive, all else being equal, because it implies a smaller crop. However, the anticipated reduction is occurring alongside expectations for a substantial increase in ending stocks. The market response will depend on the relationship between the final crop estimate, beginning inventories, exports and domestic use. A production reduction that is smaller than expected may fail to provide meaningful support if the overall balance sheet remains comfortable. Conversely, a deeper production cut combined with stronger demand could encourage traders to reassess the availability of US corn. WASDE Report: Ending Stocks in Focus Analysts expect US corn ending stocks to rise by 126 million bushels to 1.693 billion bushels. The expected increase is attributed mainly to the additional 173 million bushels in the 2025/26 stocks total reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service at the end of September. This distinction is important. Even if the new-crop yield and production estimates decline, a higher starting inventory can leave more corn available across the full marketing year. If the USDA confirms the expected increase in ending stocks, the market may interpret the report as evidence that supplies remain ample relative to anticipated demand. A larger-than-expected inventory figure could add pressure to futures. A smaller increase, or an unexpected reduction in projected stocks, could offer support by suggesting that demand or production adjustments are tightening the balance sheet. Traders will therefore need to assess the complete WASDE balance rather than focusing on the yield estimate in isolation. Bullish Scenario Several factors could support a recovery in corn prices: Stronger export sales: Continued improvement from the latest 769,468 MT reading could help reduce concerns about the year-on-year decline. Additional international tenders: Further purchases from South Korea and other importers could strengthen expectations for US export demand. Lower production estimates: A larger-than-expected reduction in yield or production could tighten the projected supply balance. Harvest delays: Rainfall across parts of the eastern Midwest could temporarily restrict the movement of newly harvested corn. Lower-than-expected ending stocks: A USDA inventory estimate below 1.693 billion bushels could encourage buying and short-covering. A sustained advance would be more convincing if improved export demand and tighter supply estimates appear together. Bearish Scenario Downside risks remain if ample inventories outweigh improvements in weekly demand: Higher ending stocks: A figure above the expected 1.693 billion bushels could reinforce concerns about abundant US supplies. Weak year-on-year exports: Sales remaining substantially below the previous year's level could limit confidence in demand. Harvest progress: Dry conditions across much of the production region could allow the supply pipeline to expand. Limited production adjustment: A smaller-than-expected reduction in yield could leave the market with a larger crop than anticipated. Disappointing follow-through from tenders: International purchases may provide limited support if they do not translate into sustained US export business. If ending stocks rise as expected and export sales fail to improve further, rallies could encounter renewed selling pressure. Corn Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains centred on the USDA's assessment of production and inventories. December futures at $5.00¼ per bushel are close to the $5 level, but the latest settlement does not by itself confirm a break lower or establish a durable floor. A tighter-than-expected balance sheet, stronger export sales or more disruptive harvest weather could help prices recover. Conversely, higher-than-expected stocks and continued weak year-on-year sales could leave corn vulnerable to further declines. The interaction between production and inventories is especially important. A smaller crop may offer limited support if the increase in beginning stocks leaves overall availability comfortably supplied. Traders should therefore monitor the market's reaction to the complete USDA report, along with subsequent export sales and harvest progress, before drawing conclusions about the sustainability of any move. Supply Outlook The market anticipates a US corn crop of 15.733 billion bushels, with an expected yield of 177.8 bushels per acre. Both figures represent modest reductions from the estimates implied by the analyst survey. However, the expected increase in ending stocks to 1.693 billion bushels suggests that the overall supply balance may remain comfortable. The higher previous-season inventory is a key factor because it increases the amount of corn carried into the current marketing year. Weather will influence the timing of physical availability. Rainfall in Indiana and Ohio could slow harvesting locally, while drier conditions elsewhere may support fieldwork and the movement of supplies. The final USDA figures will determine whether the market needs to adjust its view of the crop and the amount of corn likely to remain available at the end of the marketing year. Demand Outlook Corn demand shows mixed signals. Weekly sales improve 43.6% from the previous week, but remain 65.9% below the comparable period last year. Mexico leads reported buying, while Colombia and Japan also contribute to the latest total. South Korean importers' combined 324,000 MT tender purchases provide another indication of active international procurement, although the origin of those purchases matters when assessing their direct impact on US exports. Stronger and sustained US sales would help absorb the expected crop and reduce the risk of inventory accumulation. If export demand remains weak, the market may have to rely more heavily on competitive pricing to attract buyers. Currency movements may also influence international demand by changing the cost of US corn for overseas buyers relative to alternative origins. Their impact depends on the currencies involved and the prices offered by competing exporters. Louis Roche Analysis Corn is approaching a key information point, with the USDA report likely to determine whether the market places greater weight on a lower projected yield or the expected increase in ending stocks. The 0.7-bushel-per-acre yield reduction anticipated by analysts offers some potential support, but the expected rise in stocks to 1.693 billion bushels presents a counterweight. The reported increase in previous-season inventories is particularly important because it can offset a smaller estimate for the new crop. Export demand remains another source of uncertainty. The latest weekly sales figure improves from the previous week, and the South Korean tenders provide a constructive signal, but sales remain sharply lower than in the same period last year. My assessment is that the market remains sensitive to a potentially bearish inventory outcome. A more durable recovery would require stronger export performance or a tighter-than-expected balance sheet, rather than relying solely on a modest reduction in production estimates. If stocks confirm expectations and demand remains subdued, the market may struggle to sustain rallies. Coming Sessions: What Traders Should Watch USDA Crop Production report: Compare the official yield and production estimates with expectations of 177.8 bushels per acre and 15.733 billion bushels. WASDE ending stocks: Assess the reported figure against the 1.693-billion-bushel expectation. Export sales: Monitor whether weekly sales continue to improve and begin closing the year-on-year gap. South Korean tenders: Watch for confirmation of sourcing and any follow-on purchases of US corn. Harvest weather: Track rainfall in Indiana and Ohio, alongside the later forecast for Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas. Cash-market direction: Monitor whether the national average cash price stabilises as harvest supplies become available. Today Markets View Corn futures face competing influences as traders prepare for updated US crop and inventory estimates. Improving weekly sales and South Korean buying provide some support, but the year-on-year decline in export sales and the prospect of higher ending stocks remain significant concerns. The next directional move will depend on whether the USDA confirms a comfortable supply balance or delivers figures that are tighter than anticipated. Export demand and harvest progress will then help determine whether any post-report move can be sustained. Currency Hedger View Currency movements can affect the competitiveness of US corn exports and the cost of imported grain for overseas buyers. Exchange-rate changes may influence purchasing power, trade flows and decisions between competing supply origins. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger – Foreign-exchange perspective, contributing to Today Markets' corn market analysis. Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 9, 2026

Wheat Market Outlook: US Export Demand and WASDE Stock Estimates Drive Price Direction

US wheat futures face renewed selling pressure after early gains fade, with Chicago soft red winter, Kansas City hard red winter and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts all closing lower. The pullback comes despite a relatively strong weekly export sales reading for the current marketing year and a substantial purchase by a Taiwanese flour mill. US wheat sales reach 451,562 metric tonnes for the week ending October 1, making the result the second-largest weekly total of the marketing year. However, sales remain approximately half the level recorded during the comparable week last year, highlighting the challenge of maintaining export momentum. Market attention is now turning to the upcoming USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect US wheat ending stocks to increase by 4 million bushels to 721 million bushels, a potential source of pressure if the published figures confirm expectations or indicate a more comfortable supply balance. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest readingDecember 2026 CBOT wheat$6.83¼/bushel, down 3¼ centsMarch 2027 CBOT wheat$6.97¾/bushel, down 3¼ centsDecember 2026 Kansas City wheat$7.36¼/bushel, down 2¼ centsMarch 2027 Kansas City wheat$7.49/bushel, down 3 centsDecember 2026 Minneapolis wheat$7.06/bushel, down 4¼ centsMarch 2027 Minneapolis wheat$7.24½/bushel, down 5¼ centsWeekly US wheat export sales451,562 MTExpected US wheat ending stocks721 million bushelsExpected change in ending stocksIncrease of 4 million bushelsTaiwanese mill purchase105,800 MT of US wheat The ending-stock figures are analyst survey expectations, not confirmed USDA estimates. Price Action and Market Structure Wheat futures retreat across all three major US exchanges, with the early buying interest failing to hold into the close. Chicago soft red winter wheat declines by 3¼ cents in both the December 2026 and March 2027 contracts. December futures settle at $6.83¼ per bushel, while March contracts close at $6.97¾. Kansas City hard red winter wheat also finishes lower, with December futures down 2¼ cents to $7.36¼ and March futures declining 3 cents to $7.49. Minneapolis spring wheat records the largest declines among the listed contracts. December futures settle at $7.06, down 4¼ cents, while March futures fall 5¼ cents to $7.24½. The broad-based weakness suggests that the market is responding to wider supply-and-demand expectations rather than a single regional development. The inability to sustain early gains also indicates that buyers remain cautious ahead of the WASDE report. The premium in Kansas City and Minneapolis futures relative to Chicago reflects differences in wheat classes and their respective market fundamentals. Changes in export demand, crop availability and quality requirements will remain important in determining whether those price relationships widen or narrow. US Wheat Export Demand USDA weekly export sales total 451,562 MT for the week ending October 1. The result is the second-largest weekly sales figure of the current marketing year, providing some evidence of continued international interest in US supplies. The Philippines is the largest buyer, purchasing 112,000 MT. South Korea accounts for 100,000 MT, while Japan purchases 62,900 MT. Despite the strong ranking within the current marketing year, total sales remain around 50% below the corresponding week last year. That comparison is important because wheat prices must compete with alternative origins and reflect the availability of supplies from other major exporters. The market will need to see whether the latest sales figure marks the beginning of a more sustained improvement or represents a temporary increase in buying activity. Continued purchases from Asian markets could help support US wheat values, particularly if importers become more active in securing forward supplies. Conversely, if weekly sales fall back and remain below last year's pace, export demand may struggle to offset pressure from global competition and expectations for domestic inventories. Taiwanese Flour Mill Purchase Provides Demand Support A Taiwanese flour mill purchases 105,800 MT of US wheat in an overnight tender. The transaction provides a concrete example of international demand and adds to the evidence that US supplies remain competitive for some buyers. Large tenders can support sentiment by demonstrating that importers are willing to commit to substantial volumes. However, a single purchase does not necessarily establish a broader improvement in demand. The longer-term market impact will depend on whether similar transactions continue across Asia and other importing regions. Traders will also monitor whether new business is reflected in subsequent export sales and shipment data. The Taiwanese purchase therefore offers a supportive demand signal, but it must be assessed alongside the year-on-year decline in weekly sales and the upcoming assessment of US stocks. WASDE Report: Ending Stocks in Focus Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect US wheat ending stocks to increase by 4 million bushels to 721 million bushels in the next WASDE report. Ending stocks are a key measure of the supply expected to remain available at the end of the marketing year. An increase generally indicates a more comfortable projected balance, while a reduction can suggest tighter availability, all else being equal. If the USDA confirms the expected increase, the report may reinforce concerns that supply is sufficient relative to projected demand. A larger-than-expected increase could add further pressure, especially if export sales fail to strengthen. A lower-than-expected stock figure could produce the opposite reaction, prompting traders to reassess the domestic supply outlook and potentially encouraging short-covering. The report's impact will depend on the complete balance sheet rather than ending stocks alone. Traders will also need to assess any changes to production, imports, domestic use and exports to understand the reasons behind the final inventory estimate. Bullish Scenario Several developments could help stabilise wheat prices or support a recovery: Stronger export demand: Continued sales to the Philippines, South Korea, Japan and other importers could improve confidence in the US export outlook. Additional Asian tenders: Further substantial purchases of US wheat would demonstrate that international buyers remain active. Tighter-than-expected stocks: A USDA ending-stock estimate below the anticipated 721 million bushels could support prices. Improving export competitiveness: Changes in relative prices or currency exchange rates could make US supplies more attractive to overseas buyers. Short-covering after the report: If the WASDE figures are less bearish than expected, traders positioned for lower prices may buy back contracts. For a more durable recovery, the market would need evidence that demand is strengthening or that available supplies are tighter than current expectations suggest. Bearish Scenario Downside risks remain if supply expectations outweigh evidence of demand: Higher ending stocks: A USDA estimate above 721 million bushels could reinforce concerns about domestic availability. Weak year-on-year sales: Weekly exports remaining well below last year's comparable level could weigh on demand expectations. Failure to hold early gains: Continued selling into rallies would suggest that buyers are reluctant to establish larger positions. Global competition: US exporters may face pressure if competing origins offer more attractive prices or readily available supplies. Limited follow-through from tenders: If the Taiwanese purchase is not followed by further business, its supportive influence may fade. A combination of higher projected stocks and subdued export sales would leave wheat vulnerable to additional selling across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts. Wheat Price Outlook The near-term wheat outlook is centred on the WASDE report and the ability of US export demand to maintain its recent pace. Chicago December futures at $6.83¼, Kansas City December futures at $7.36¼ and Minneapolis December futures at $7.06 provide reference levels for monitoring the market's reaction to new information. These settlement prices are benchmarks rather than confirmed support or resistance levels. A stock estimate below expectations, accompanied by stronger export activity, could help prices recover from the latest declines. If the USDA confirms a larger inventory outlook while sales remain weak relative to last year, the market may face further pressure. The divergence between wheat classes will also be worth watching. Differences in quality requirements, export demand and regional availability may cause the three exchanges to respond differently even when the broader direction is shared. Until the report provides greater clarity, wheat may remain sensitive to new export announcements and shifts in expectations for inventories. Supply Outlook The anticipated increase in US ending stocks to 721 million bushels points to a potentially more comfortable domestic supply balance. However, the final outlook depends on the USDA's assessment of production, demand and stocks carried forward from the previous marketing year. The market will be looking for any changes that materially alter expected availability. Even a relatively small revision can influence futures when it differs from the consensus estimate. Global supply competition also remains relevant. US wheat prices must remain attractive enough to secure export business, particularly when importers can choose among different origins and wheat classes. The WASDE report should provide a clearer view of whether domestic inventories are expanding or tightening relative to projected use. Demand Outlook Demand presents a mixed picture. Weekly sales of 451,562 MT are strong relative to other weeks in the current marketing year, yet they remain around half the volume recorded in the same week last year. The Taiwanese mill purchase of 105,800 MT adds to the evidence of active buying, while sales to the Philippines, South Korea and Japan highlight the importance of Asian markets for US wheat exports. Future price direction will depend on whether this activity translates into a sustained improvement in total commitments and shipments. Continued buying would help absorb available supplies, while a return to weaker weekly sales could reinforce concerns about the demand outlook. Currency movements may also influence international purchasing decisions by changing the local-currency cost of imported wheat. Their effect will depend on the currencies involved, competing origins and the timing of purchasing contracts. Louis Roche Analysis The wheat market is showing a clear tension between encouraging individual export transactions and a broader demand comparison that remains weak. The latest weekly sales figure is the second-largest of the marketing year, and the Taiwanese purchase adds a further positive signal. However, neither development yet establishes a sustained improvement in US export demand. The WASDE report is the immediate catalyst. An expected increase in ending stocks to 721 million bushels would leave the market focused on whether inventories are rising faster than demand can absorb them. Any meaningful deviation from that estimate could produce a sharp reaction across the three US wheat exchanges. The simultaneous decline in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis futures indicates that the latest demand news has not been enough to maintain buying momentum. That makes the market particularly sensitive to a bearish surprise in the inventory figures. My assessment is that wheat remains data-dependent, with the balance of risk influenced by the stock estimate and the follow-through in export business. A recovery would be more convincing if stronger tenders and weekly sales are accompanied by a tighter-than-expected balance sheet. Without that confirmation, rallies may continue to encounter selling pressure. Coming Sessions: What Traders Should Watch USDA WASDE report: Compare actual US ending stocks with the expected 721 million bushels. Weekly export sales: Look for evidence that demand is improving beyond the latest reporting week. Asian buying: Monitor new tenders and purchases from the Philippines, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Exchange performance: Track whether Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat continue moving together or begin to diverge. Global competition: Assess the relative competitiveness of US wheat against alternative export origins. Currency movements: Watch exchange-rate changes that may affect import costs and the relative attractiveness of US supplies. Today Markets View Wheat futures remain under pressure as traders balance export activity against the prospect of higher US ending stocks. The latest sales figures and Taiwanese purchase provide support, but the substantial year-on-year decline in weekly sales remains a concern. The WASDE report is likely to determine the next major shift in sentiment. A tighter-than-expected balance sheet could support a recovery, while higher inventories and disappointing demand would leave prices exposed to further weakness. Currency Hedger View Currency movements can influence the competitiveness of US wheat exports and the cost of imports for overseas buyers. Exchange-rate changes may alter purchasing power, affect trade flows and influence decisions between competing supply origins. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger – Foreign-exchange perspective, contributing to Today Markets' wheat market analysis. Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 9, 2026

Soybean Market Outlook: Harvest Progress, Export Demand and USDA Forecasts Shape Price Direction

Soybean markets face pressure from weaker futures, subdued US export sales and expectations of a slightly larger domestic crop. November soybeans close at $12.87½ per bushel, while the national average cash price declines to $12.30. Soymeal futures also weaken, although soybean oil moves higher, highlighting divergent trends across the soybean complex. Weather conditions remain an important near-term factor. Rainfall associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias may interrupt harvesting in parts of the eastern Midwest, while drier conditions elsewhere could support fieldwork before another round of precipitation arrives. Attention is also turning to the next USDA Crop Production report, where traders anticipate only modest revisions to US yield and production estimates. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest readingNovember 2026 soybeans$12.87½/bushel, down 10 centsJanuary 2027 soybeans$13.04¼/bushel, down 10¼ centsMarch 2027 soybeans$13.14/bushel, down 10 centsUS national average cash soybeans$12.30/bushel, down 10 centsSoymeal futuresDown $4.50–$8.20Soybean oil futuresUp 12–20 pointsWeekly US soybean export sales549,377 MTExpected US soybean yield52.9 bushels per acreExpected US soybean production4.538 billion bushelsExpected US ending stocks308 million bushels USDA production and ending-stock figures are trader survey estimates, not confirmed government figures. Price Action and Market Structure Soybean futures finish lower across the curve, with November contracts settling at $12.87½ per bushel and January 2027 futures at $13.04¼. March 2027 contracts settle at $13.14, maintaining a premium over nearby delivery months. The decline in the national average cash price to $12.30 reinforces the softer tone across the market. With futures and cash values both under pressure, buyers appear to be weighing available supply against export demand and the prospect of another sizeable US crop. Soymeal weakness adds to the pressure on the soybean complex, reflecting a less supportive tone in the protein market. Soybean oil moves in the opposite direction, gaining 12–20 points and providing a degree of support to overall soybean-product values. The divergence between meal and oil remains important. If soybean oil strength persists, it could help cushion weakness in whole-bean futures. However, sustained gains will likely require stronger demand or a more significant supply-side concern. Harvest Weather and Field Conditions Weather is creating a regional split in the US harvest outlook. Parts of Indiana and Ohio may receive upwards of an inch of rainfall over the coming days as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias move through the eastern Midwest. The precipitation could shorten the available harvest window, delay machinery access to fields and temporarily slow soybean movement from farms. Much of the rest of the country is expected to remain dry until Wednesday or Thursday of the following week. A forecast pocket of 1–2 inches of rain across Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas could then influence harvest timing in several important producing states. The market impact depends on the timing and distribution of rainfall. Localised delays in the east may provide limited support if harvesting falls behind expectations. Conversely, broadly favourable conditions across other production areas could allow harvest progress to continue, maintaining pressure on prices as newly harvested supplies reach the market. US Export Demand and International Buying USDA weekly export sales total 549,377 metric tonnes for the week ending October 1. The reported volume is a low for the short marketing year and stands 40.25% below the corresponding week last year. China is the largest reported buyer, accounting for 382,900 MT. Mexico purchases 139,800 MT, while Tunisia accounts for another 60,000 MT. The figures demonstrate that demand remains concentrated among a relatively small number of major buyers. China's purchasing activity is especially important because changes in its buying pace can materially influence expectations for US export commitments. The year-on-year decline nevertheless presents a challenge. If sales remain subdued while harvest supplies increase, the market could face greater difficulty sustaining current price levels. A recovery in Chinese demand, stronger purchases from other destinations or an improvement in total export commitments would help ease this pressure. Soymeal sales reach 1.047 million MT, including 861,901 MT carried over from the 2025/26 marketing year. Soybean oil sales total 9,289 MT, with 8,105 MT carried over from the previous marketing year. The carryover figures provide important context when assessing the latest sales totals. Traders will need to distinguish fresh demand from previously recorded commitments when evaluating the strength of export performance. USDA Crop Production Report: Yield and Stocks Expectations Market participants surveyed by Bloomberg expect the USDA to raise its US soybean yield estimate by 0.1 bushel per acre to 52.9 bushels per acre. The survey anticipates production increasing by approximately 3 million bushels to 4.538 billion bushels. At the same time, US soybean ending stocks are expected to decline by 2 million bushels to 308 million bushels, mainly reflecting a lower carryout from the 2025/26 marketing year. These estimates suggest a relatively modest adjustment to the domestic balance sheet rather than a major shift in the supply outlook. The final market reaction will depend on how the USDA's published figures compare with expectations. A higher yield or production estimate than anticipated could reinforce bearish sentiment, particularly if export demand remains weak. Conversely, a smaller crop estimate or a more substantial reduction in ending stocks could encourage buying and prompt short-covering. Traders should therefore focus not only on the headline yield figure but also on production, beginning stocks, exports and the resulting balance between supply and demand. Bullish Scenario Several factors could help stabilise soybean prices or support a recovery: Harvest delays: Rainfall across parts of the eastern Midwest could temporarily slow fieldwork and restrict the flow of newly harvested beans into the market. Stronger Chinese buying: An improvement in export sales, particularly from China, could ease concerns about the pace of US demand. Lower-than-expected USDA supply: A less aggressive production estimate or a sharper reduction in ending stocks could tighten the anticipated balance sheet. Soybean oil strength: Continued gains in soybean oil could offer support to whole-bean values even if soymeal remains under pressure. Weather uncertainty: Further disruptions during the harvest period could increase short-term supply concerns. For a sustained bullish move, however, the market would likely need confirmation from export demand, the USDA balance sheet or more disruptive weather conditions. Bearish Scenario Downside risks remain linked to harvest availability and the pace of consumption: Weak export sales: Weekly soybean sales running well below the previous year's comparable level could weigh on demand expectations. Large domestic production: A yield estimate of 52.9 bushels per acre and production of 4.538 billion bushels would maintain the prospect of substantial US supplies if confirmed. Favourable harvest conditions: Dry weather across much of the producing region could allow fieldwork to progress and increase the volume of newly harvested beans reaching the market. Soymeal weakness: Continued declines in meal futures could signal limited support from the protein side of the soybean complex. Bearish report surprise: Production or ending stocks exceeding market expectations could encourage further selling. If export demand fails to improve as harvest advances, rallies may attract selling from market participants concerned about available supplies. Soybean Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains sensitive to the balance between harvest progress, export demand and the upcoming USDA report. The decline in November futures to $12.87½ places the market under pressure, while the lower cash price indicates that weakness extends beyond the futures market. A stabilisation in export sales, weather-related harvest delays or a tighter-than-expected USDA balance sheet could help prices recover. In contrast, sustained harvesting progress combined with weak international buying would leave soybeans vulnerable to additional pressure. The January 2027 contract at $13.04¼ and March 2027 contract at $13.14 provide reference points for monitoring the deferred market, but their premiums alone do not establish a bullish trend. The key question is whether demand can absorb the incoming US crop at a pace sufficient to prevent inventories from building. Until clearer evidence emerges, price action may remain volatile around weather updates and USDA data. Supply Outlook US production expectations remain substantial, with the market anticipating a crop of approximately 4.538 billion bushels. The forecast yield of 52.9 bushels per acre would represent a small increase from the estimate used in the survey. Harvest weather will determine how quickly that anticipated supply becomes available. Rainfall in Indiana and Ohio could slow local progress, while drier conditions elsewhere may help maintain a steady harvest pace before the next forecast period brings more precipitation. Ending stocks are expected to reach 308 million bushels, according to the trader survey. The anticipated two-million-bushel reduction is modest and is not, by itself, evidence of a major tightening in supply. The USDA's final estimates will be central to determining whether the current production outlook is already reflected in prices or whether the market needs to adjust further. Demand Outlook Demand remains the main uncertainty in the near-term outlook. Weekly soybean sales of 549,377 MT are notably below the comparable period last year, while purchases are concentrated among China, Mexico and Tunisia. Improving sales would help absorb additional harvest supplies and support the domestic balance sheet. If demand remains subdued, the market may have to rely more heavily on price competitiveness to attract buyers. Soymeal and soybean oil demand also warrant attention because their price movements influence processing margins and the value of the overall soybean complex. The current divergence—with meal lower and oil higher—suggests that product-specific fundamentals are playing a role in market direction. Louis Roche Analysis The soybean market is approaching a period in which supply expectations and actual demand must increasingly be assessed together. A large crop does not automatically produce sustained price weakness, but it can make the market more sensitive to disappointing export performance and favourable harvest conditions. The latest sales figure is a concern because it falls well below the same week last year. China remains the key buyer to watch, while the upcoming USDA report could alter expectations for production and inventories. Weather offers a potential source of short-term volatility rather than a confirmed change in the broader supply outlook. Rainfall may delay harvesting in selected areas, but wider production conditions will determine whether those delays materially affect available supply. My assessment is that soybeans remain vulnerable while export sales are subdued and the market anticipates a large crop. A more durable recovery would require evidence of stronger buying, a meaningful tightening in the USDA balance sheet or more widespread harvest disruption. Until then, rallies may face resistance from supply expectations. Coming Sessions: What Traders Should Watch USDA Crop Production report: Compare the published yield, production and ending-stock figures with the market's expectations. Harvest weather: Monitor rainfall in Indiana and Ohio, along with the later forecast for Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas. Chinese export demand: Watch for an improvement in soybean purchases and total US export sales. Soymeal and soybean oil: Assess whether the divergence between the two products continues or begins to reverse. Cash-market behaviour: Track whether the national average cash price stabilises as harvesting advances. Deferred futures: Monitor the relationship between November, January and March contracts for changes in the market's view of supply availability. Today Markets View Soybeans remain caught between the prospect of a substantial US harvest and questions over the strength of export demand. Weather disruptions could create temporary support, but the broader direction will depend on whether international buying can absorb available supply and whether the USDA confirms current production expectations. The next significant price response is likely to depend on the relationship between the official crop estimates and the market's existing assumptions. Traders should remain attentive to changes in export demand, harvest progress and the soybean meal–oil spread rather than relying on any single indicator. Currency Hedger View Currency movements can influence the competitiveness of US agricultural exports and the purchasing power of overseas buyers. Exchange-rate changes may affect trade flows, import costs and the relative attractiveness of competing origins, particularly when global buyers have alternative suppliers. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger – Foreign-exchange perspective, contributing to Today Markets' soybean market analysis. Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 9, 2026

US Cattle Market Outlook: Feeder Futures Weaken as Beef Prices and Export Shipments Ease

US cattle markets are showing signs of near-term pressure as live cattle and feeder cattle futures weaken, wholesale beef prices decline and export shipments fall to their lowest level in three weeks. Uncertainty in the cash market is adding to the cautious tone, with no reported sales at the latest Fed Cattle Exchange auction and cash bids in the northern market remaining below recent futures valuations. At the same time, federally inspected slaughter is running above the previous week's level, increasing the flow of cattle into processing. However, slaughter remains significantly below the comparable period last year, highlighting the continuing constraint on available supplies. The market must balance tighter cattle availability against softer wholesale beef prices and the pace of demand from domestic and international buyers. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest reported figureMarket implicationOctober 2026 live cattle$221.875, up $0.275Nearby contract shows relative resilienceDecember 2026 live cattle$223.550, down $0.225Slightly weakerFebruary 2027 live cattle$225.850, down $0.700Deferred pressureOctober 2026 feeder cattle$338.025, down $0.125Marginal declineNovember 2026 feeder cattle$334.875, down $0.925Selling pressureJanuary 2027 feeder cattle$328.425, down $1.975Largest decline among listed feeder contractsCME Feeder Cattle Index$336.73, down $1.14Lower cash-linked benchmarkNorthern cash cattle bids$340–345/cwtCash trade remains unconfirmedWeekly beef export sales12,996 MTReported sales for 2026Weekly beef shipments11,880 MTThree-week lowChoice boxed beef$374.85/cwt, down $0.77Wholesale demand pressureSelect boxed beef$351.73/cwt, down $2.48Larger wholesale declineFederally inspected weekly slaughter424,000 headUp 14,000 week-on-week; down 25,661 year-on-year Prices and market figures reflect the supplied report. Cattle and boxed beef prices are quoted per hundredweight (cwt) where applicable. Price Action and Market Structure Live cattle futures finished mixed, with most contracts losing between 22 cents and $1.20, while the October contract gained 27 cents. The reported settlements show October live cattle at $221.875, December at $223.550 and February 2027 at $225.850. Feeder cattle futures were weaker across the listed contracts. October feeder cattle closed at $338.025, November at $334.875 and January 2027 at $328.425. The largest decline among these contracts was recorded in January, which fell $1.975. The weakness in feeder cattle suggests that market participants are reassessing the cost of replacement animals against the outlook for finished-cattle values and feedlot returns. Feeder prices are influenced by expected finished-cattle revenue, feed costs, animal availability and the profitability of placing cattle into feedlots. Live cattle have shown comparatively greater resilience in the nearby October contract, but the mixed settlements do not establish a clear bullish trend. The absence of confirmed cash trade leaves the market without a fresh physical-price reference to validate futures valuations. Cash Cattle Trade Remains a Key Catalyst Cash cattle trade has yet to become established for the current week. Northern bids of $340–345 per hundredweight have been reported, but the Thursday morning Fed Cattle Exchange online auction recorded no bids or sales on the 2,612 head offered. The lack of transactions means there is no confirmed auction price to establish the latest market-clearing level. Bids provide an indication of packer purchasing interest, but without completed trades, they do not confirm where sellers are willing to transact. The relationship between cash prices and futures will be important as the week progresses. If cash bids develop into completed sales at firm levels, live cattle futures could find support. If sellers accept lower bids or trade remains limited amid weaker boxed beef prices, the market may face additional pressure. The auction's lack of activity should not be interpreted as proof that demand has disappeared. It does, however, leave the market waiting for stronger evidence of price discovery. Feeder Cattle Index Signals a Softer Cash Benchmark The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell $1.14 on October 7 to $336.73. The decline reinforces the weaker tone in feeder futures and indicates a lower benchmark for cash feeder cattle values. Feeder cattle prices reflect expectations for the eventual value of finished animals. When live cattle prices are uncertain and wholesale beef values are declining, feedlots may become more cautious about the prices they are willing to pay for replacement cattle. Feed costs and expected performance remain important parts of that calculation. If projected finishing margins narrow, buyers may reduce bids for feeder cattle. Conversely, limited availability of suitable replacement animals can help support prices even when feedlot economics are under pressure. The latest index movement therefore points to some easing in feeder values, but the longer-term direction will depend on cattle availability, feed costs and the price that finished animals can command. Wholesale Beef Prices Weaken Wholesale boxed beef prices declined in the Thursday afternoon report, adding to the cautious tone across the cattle complex. Choice boxed beef fell 77 cents to $374.85 per hundredweight, while Select declined $2.48 to $351.73. The reported Chc/Sel figure was $23.12. The larger decline in Select suggests that the two reported boxed-beef categories are experiencing different degrees of price pressure. Nevertheless, weakness across both categories can reduce the revenue packers generate from selling beef and may influence their willingness to bid aggressively for live cattle. Wholesale prices are an important link between consumer demand and cattle procurement. If retailers and other buyers purchase beef more cautiously, packers may face greater difficulty passing through higher cattle costs. If beef demand strengthens, wholesale values may stabilise and improve packer buying interest. The next reports should clarify whether the latest declines represent a temporary adjustment or a more persistent weakening in boxed beef values. Slaughter Volumes: Weekly Recovery, Annual Shortfall USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 101,000 head for Thursday, bringing the reported weekly total to 424,000 head. That weekly total was 14,000 head above the previous week but 25,661 head below the same week last year. The week-on-week increase indicates a higher processing rate compared with the previous reporting period. More cattle moving through slaughter can increase the immediate supply of beef and potentially weigh on wholesale prices if demand does not keep pace. The year-on-year shortfall, however, points to a tighter supply backdrop than in the comparable period last year. Lower slaughter numbers can reflect a smaller pool of available animals and may constrain beef production over time. These two comparisons are not contradictory: slaughter can rise from one week to the next while remaining substantially below last year's level. For the market, the key question is whether processing volumes continue to recover and how those volumes interact with wholesale demand and cattle availability. Beef Export Demand and Shipments The latest USDA Export Sales report showed 12,996 metric tonnes of beef sold for 2026 during the week ending October 1. Shipments totalled 11,880 metric tonnes, reaching a three-week low. The reported sales volume indicates continued export business, but shipments are an important measure of how quickly contracted beef is moving to international customers. A decline in shipments can reflect changes in fulfilment timing, logistics or buyer demand; one weekly figure alone does not establish a sustained downturn. If shipments remain weak, exporters may have less immediate support for wholesale demand, potentially adding pressure to boxed beef and packer margins. A recovery in shipments would provide a more constructive signal, particularly if it coincides with stronger new sales commitments. Currency movements can also influence international competitiveness by changing the effective cost of US beef for overseas buyers. The exchange rate, product pricing and competing suppliers therefore remain relevant alongside the headline export figures. Bullish Scenario: Tight Cattle Supplies Support Prices The bullish case depends on the market placing greater weight on the year-on-year reduction in slaughter and the possibility of stronger cash trade. Potential supportive factors include: Lower annual slaughter: Weekly processing remains 25,661 head below the comparable week last year, indicating a tighter supply backdrop. Firm cash transactions: Confirmed cash sales near or above reported bids could provide support for live cattle futures. Improved wholesale beef prices: A recovery in Choice and Select values could improve packer revenue and encourage stronger cattle bids. Stronger export shipments: An improvement from the reported three-week low could reinforce demand for US beef. Limited feeder availability: If replacement cattle remain difficult to source, feeder prices could find support despite recent losses. For this scenario to strengthen, the market needs confirmation from cash sales, wholesale beef values or export activity. Lower slaughter relative to last year provides structural support, but it does not guarantee higher prices if beef demand weakens. Bearish Scenario: Softer Beef Values and Feeder Prices Extend Losses The bearish case would strengthen if wholesale beef prices continue to fall and cash cattle trade develops at weaker levels. Key downside factors include: Lower boxed beef prices: Further declines in Choice and Select values could reduce packer revenue. Unconfirmed cash trade: Continued limited activity would leave the market without a firm physical-price signal. Weak feeder cattle futures: Additional declines could indicate growing caution about feedlot profitability. Slower beef shipments: Continued weakness in exports could limit a source of demand for US beef. Higher weekly slaughter: If processing continues to rise without a corresponding improvement in demand, near-term beef availability could increase. If these factors coincide, live cattle futures could face additional pressure, while feeder cattle may remain vulnerable to concerns about the margins available to feedlots. Cattle Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains cautious and dependent on confirmation from the cash market. Live cattle futures are mixed, feeder cattle futures are weaker, and wholesale boxed beef prices have declined. These developments point to pressure on the market, but the year-on-year slaughter shortfall provides a countervailing supply consideration. Live cattle direction will depend heavily on whether cash bids develop into completed transactions and whether those trades support current futures valuations. A firmer cash market combined with stabilising boxed beef values would improve the outlook. Weaker cash transactions and continued wholesale price declines would reinforce the bearish case. Feeder cattle face an additional consideration: the economics of placing replacement animals into feedlots. If finished-cattle prices and expected beef demand do not justify current feeder costs, buyers may become more selective. Conversely, the limited availability implied by lower annual slaughter could help prevent a deeper decline. The available data supports a market with competing influences rather than a confirmed directional breakout. Further price movement should be assessed against actual cash trade, boxed beef prices and the next export and slaughter reports. Supply Outlook The US cattle supply picture remains relatively tight compared with the same period last year, as federally inspected slaughter is still lower by 25,661 head. The increase from the previous week suggests processing activity is recovering, but the annual shortfall remains significant. The pace of slaughter over the coming weeks will help establish whether the market is moving towards greater immediate beef availability or remains constrained by the supply of finished animals. For feeder cattle, replacement-animal availability and feedlot economics will remain critical. The lower CME Feeder Cattle Index may reflect softer cash values, but the extent of any continued decline will depend on how aggressively feedlots compete for suitable cattle and what prices they expect to receive at finishing. Demand Outlook Demand signals are mixed. Wholesale Choice and Select prices have declined, while beef shipments reached a three-week low. These figures suggest that the market needs stronger evidence of sustained buying to support a broader recovery. The 12,996 metric tonnes of reported export sales demonstrate ongoing business, but subsequent shipments will show whether commitments are translating into physical deliveries at a stronger pace. Domestic retail purchasing, food-service demand and packer procurement will also influence the market. If boxed beef values stabilise and shipments recover, demand could help offset the pressure from weaker feeder futures. If wholesale prices continue to decline and exports remain soft, cattle values may face further resistance. Louis Roche Analysis The cattle market is being pulled in opposite directions by a tighter annual slaughter profile and weaker near-term demand indicators. The year-on-year reduction in slaughter is important because it points to less cattle moving through the processing system than during the comparable period last year. That can limit beef availability and offer underlying support. However, lower supply alone is not sufficient to drive prices higher if wholesale beef values are falling or buyers are reluctant to pay more for finished cattle. The absence of completed Fed Cattle Exchange transactions leaves the cash market as the most immediate uncertainty. Reported bids of $340–345 per hundredweight provide a reference, but they do not confirm where trade will clear. Actual transactions will be more informative than bids alone. Feeder cattle warrant separate attention because their value depends on expected finishing returns. The declines in feeder futures and the lower CME index suggest buyers are reassessing those economics. If boxed beef prices remain under pressure, feedlots may be less willing to pay aggressively for replacement animals. My assessment is that the market requires confirmation before a durable direction becomes clear. Firm cash trade, a recovery in boxed beef values and stronger export shipments would support stabilisation. Continued wholesale weakness, slower shipments and lower feeder prices would indicate that the market is still adjusting to a more cautious demand outlook. Coming Sessions: Key Market Drivers Cash cattle transactions: Watch whether northern bids of $340–345 per hundredweight lead to completed sales and whether trade establishes a firmer price benchmark. Fed Cattle Exchange activity: Further auction results may help reveal the level of packer demand and seller resistance. Choice and Select boxed beef: Stabilisation would improve the demand picture; continued declines could pressure cattle values. Cattle slaughter: Track whether weekly processing continues to rise and whether the year-on-year shortfall narrows. Beef export shipments: Look for a recovery from the reported three-week low. Feeder cattle values: Monitor the CME Feeder Cattle Index and futures for signs of stabilisation in replacement-animal pricing. Feedlot margins: Changes in feed costs and expected finished-cattle revenue could influence demand for feeder animals. Today Markets View US cattle markets are facing near-term pressure from lower boxed beef prices, a softer feeder cattle complex and export shipments at a three-week low. The lack of confirmed cash sales adds uncertainty to the immediate price outlook. However, slaughter remains below the year-earlier level, which suggests that supply is still tighter than in the comparable period. This may help limit the downside if cash trade firms and beef demand stabilises. The next phase of the market will depend on whether cash transactions validate futures prices and whether wholesale beef values and export shipments recover. Until those signals improve, cattle futures may remain volatile, with feeder contracts particularly sensitive to feedlot profitability and replacement-cattle demand. Currency Hedger View For the US beef industry, exchange-rate movements can affect export competitiveness, overseas purchasing power and the cost of international transactions. A change in the US dollar can alter the effective price of American beef for foreign buyers, while currency volatility can influence the margins of importers, exporters and businesses operating across multiple markets. Livestock and meat businesses with international sales or procurement costs should therefore consider foreign-exchange exposure alongside cattle prices, feed costs and wholesale beef values. Managing currency risk can help businesses assess the impact of exchange-rate movements on contracted payments and expected revenue. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger – Foreign-exchange perspective, contributing to Today Markets' cattle market analysis. Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 9, 2026

Cotton Market Outlook: US Harvest Risks and Export Demand Shape the Price Direction

Cotton futures are showing a mixed market structure as near-term contracts soften while deferred contracts hold modest gains. The market is balancing a potential weather-related disruption to the US harvest against a weekly decline in export sales, shifting energy prices and movements in the US dollar. While overseas buying remains an important source of support, the latest sales figures suggest demand momentum needs to strengthen to sustain a broader recovery. Hurricane Isaias could disrupt harvesting across parts of the southeastern United States, potentially affecting the pace of cotton movement in the coming days. At the same time, export shipments have improved, providing some encouragement for the demand outlook. Traders will be watching weather developments, international purchasing and the relationship between nearby and deferred futures for clearer direction. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest reported figureMarket implicationOctober 2026 cotton76.21 cents/lb, down 9 pointsNear-term weaknessDecember 2026 cotton79.94 cents/lb, down 9 pointsFront-season pressureMarch 2027 cotton83.03 cents/lb, down 9 pointsDeferred pricing remains higherWeekly US export sales165,070 running balesDown 18.51% week-on-weekWeekly export shipments161,588 running balesUp 2.45% year-on-yearLargest reported buyerVietnam, 61,800 running balesImportant demand supportCotlook A Index91.70 cents/lbUp 25 points in the latest cited assessmentICE certified stocks17,756 balesLimited certified inventoryAdjusted World Price (AWP)63.81 cents/lbDown 135 points Market figures reflect the supplied report. Futures prices and physical-market indicators may refer to different reporting periods. Price Action and Market Structure Cotton futures finished mixed across the curve, with nearby contracts generally down 7–9 points while deferred contracts gained 6–12 points. The reported settlements for October 2026, December 2026 and March 2027 contracts were 76.21, 79.94 and 83.03 cents per pound, respectively, each down 9 points in the supplied figures. The higher prices in deferred contracts indicate that the market is assigning greater value to delivery further into the future. This structure may reflect uncertainty over future supply, production costs and the next stages of the global cotton balance, although the price curve alone does not establish the cause. Crude oil gained $2.90 per barrel during the reported session, while the US dollar index declined by 0.078. Higher energy prices can support the cost side of cotton production and transportation, while a weaker dollar can improve the competitiveness of US cotton for some international buyers. Neither factor guarantees stronger cotton prices, particularly when export sales and crop availability remain central drivers. The market's next move will depend on whether demand and weather risks provide enough support to offset the softer tone in nearby futures. Hurricane Isaias Raises US Harvest Concerns Weather is a key near-term variable for the US cotton market. Hurricane Isaias is forecast to bring approximately 2–5 inches of rainfall across parts of the southeastern United States, from the Mississippi River towards the Atlantic. The expected rainfall could slow harvesting and field operations in affected areas. The impact on the broader market will depend on the storm's track, the timing and distribution of precipitation, and how much cotton remains exposed in the fields. A temporary harvest delay may disrupt deliveries and the movement of available supplies. More persistent adverse conditions could create additional quality concerns or delay the arrival of cotton at gins and other processing points. However, rainfall does not automatically translate into a lasting reduction in production, and the extent of any crop damage remains uncertain. Traders should distinguish between a short-lived logistical disruption and a material reduction in harvestable output. The latter would have a more significant effect on the underlying supply outlook. US Export Sales Ease, but Shipments Improve The latest USDA Export Sales report showed 165,070 running bales of cotton sales for the week ending October 1, down 18.51% from the previous week. Vietnam was the largest reported buyer, purchasing 61,800 running bales, followed by Pakistan with 45,900 running bales. Sales for the 2027/28 season totalled 56,058 running bales, including 44,100 running bales sold to China. The decline in weekly sales suggests that fresh purchasing commitments have moderated. If this trend continues, it could limit the ability of export demand to absorb available US supplies and place pressure on futures. Shipments, however, offered a more constructive signal. Exports reached 161,588 running bales, up 2.45% from the same week last year. Vietnam was the leading destination for shipments, taking 39,600 running bales, while India received 18,100 running bales. The difference between sales and shipments is important. Sales indicate new commitments, whereas shipments reflect cotton already moving to customers. Stronger shipments can support the near-term flow of physical cotton, but sustained price strength would be easier to justify if new sales also improved. China's reported purchases for the 2027/28 season may be worth monitoring, although the volume should be assessed in the context of total seasonal commitments and subsequent shipment activity. Physical Market Indicators and Certified Stocks The Seam reported sales of 1,421 bales at an average price of 75.75 cents per pound in the latest cited session. This provides an additional indication of activity in the physical market, although the reported volume alone is insufficient to establish a broader change in buying interest. The Cotlook A Index increased by 25 points to 91.70 in the October 7 assessment. The firmer index suggests that the international physical-market benchmark was strengthening even as US futures faced pressure. Differences between futures and physical benchmarks can arise from regional supply conditions, quality specifications, freight, currency movements and delivery timing. ICE certified cotton stocks were unchanged at 17,756 bales on October 7. This relatively small certified inventory is a factor worth watching, but certified stocks represent only the cotton meeting exchange delivery requirements and should not be confused with total global or US cotton inventories. The Adjusted World Price fell by 135 points to 63.81 cents per pound. This benchmark is relevant to the US cotton support framework and can affect the economics facing eligible market participants. Its movement should be considered alongside futures, physical prices and policy parameters rather than treated as a direct forecast of the next futures settlement. Together, these indicators show a market in which some physical benchmarks are firm, but the latest weekly export sales figure and nearby futures performance do not yet establish a broad-based bullish trend. Bullish Scenario: Weather Disruption and Stronger Shipments Support Prices Cotton could recover if adverse weather slows the US harvest more significantly than expected or if export demand strengthens over the coming reporting periods. Key bullish factors include: Harvest delays: Heavy rainfall could slow picking, ginning and deliveries across affected southeastern producing areas. Improved shipment activity: Weekly shipments are already above the comparable year-earlier level, providing a foundation for continued export movement. International buying: Vietnam and Pakistan remain important destinations in the latest sales figures, while reported sales to China provide an additional point of interest. Physical-market firmness: The higher Cotlook A Index could indicate support in parts of the physical market. A weaker US dollar: Further dollar weakness could improve the competitiveness of US cotton for international buyers, depending on competing origins and exchange rates. A stronger bullish case would require confirmation that weather is materially affecting harvest progress or that export sales are recovering. Without such evidence, short-lived weather concerns may have only a limited effect on the broader price trend. Bearish Scenario: Slower Sales and Available Supply Limit Recovery The bearish case would strengthen if weekly export sales remain subdued and weather disruption proves temporary. Potential downside factors include: Declining sales commitments: The 18.51% weekly reduction indicates softer new demand compared with the previous reporting period. Limited follow-through in futures: Nearby contracts remain under pressure despite the weaker US dollar and higher crude oil prices. Normal harvest progress after the storm: If conditions improve quickly, delayed picking may not materially reduce overall supply. Uncertain demand sustainability: Stronger shipments are encouraging, but they need to be supported by continued orders. Competitive international supply: Buyers may switch between origins depending on price, quality, freight and currency conditions. If export sales fail to recover and US harvest operations return to normal, cotton could struggle to sustain a meaningful rally. The higher deferred futures prices would also remain vulnerable if the anticipated future supply risks do not materialise. Cotton Price Outlook The near-term outlook is mixed, with weather providing potential support while the latest export-sales figures temper the demand outlook. The December 2026 contract is a key reference point for monitoring whether the market can stabilise following the latest decline. A recovery supported by stronger export commitments and evidence of significant harvest disruption would improve the market tone. Conversely, continued weak sales and normal harvest progress would leave futures exposed to further pressure. The difference between nearby and deferred prices suggests that traders are not assigning identical values to immediate and future supply. This structure should be monitored alongside changes in open interest, export commitments and physical-market prices, rather than interpreted in isolation. No firm directional forecast can be established from a single weekly sales report. Confirmation from the next export data and updated harvest conditions will be important in determining whether the current weakness is temporary or part of a broader trend. Supply Outlook US supply availability in the near term will depend on the progress of harvesting, the effects of Hurricane Isaias and the movement of cotton through ginning and export channels. Rainfall could delay fieldwork, but the eventual impact on production will depend on the amount of cotton still unharvested and the severity of local conditions. A short delay may primarily affect logistics and timing; more substantial crop damage would have a more direct influence on total marketable supply. Certified ICE stocks remain an important exchange-delivery indicator, while physical sales and the Cotlook A Index provide additional insight into market conditions. These measures should be considered together, as no single inventory figure represents the entire cotton supply available to global buyers. Demand Outlook The demand picture is mixed. Weekly export sales declined, but shipments increased year-on-year. Vietnam and Pakistan were the largest buyers in the reported sales period, while Vietnam and India were the main destinations for shipments. The coming reports should show whether the decline in new sales is a temporary fluctuation or evidence of weakening international demand. Consistent purchasing would help absorb US supplies and could support futures, particularly if harvest delays restrict immediate availability. China's reported purchases for the 2027/28 season may provide a longer-term signal, but their significance will depend on subsequent commitments and the broader demand environment. For now, the market needs a sustained improvement in fresh orders to reinforce the more encouraging shipment data. Louis Roche Analysis Cotton is currently balancing two different time horizons: near-term uncertainty around the US harvest and the broader requirement for export demand to absorb available production. Hurricane-related rainfall can influence the timing of supply reaching the market, but it does not necessarily change the size of the crop. The distinction matters because futures can respond quickly to harvest disruption even when the longer-term supply balance remains broadly unchanged. Export demand is the other critical variable. The latest figures show that shipments are holding up better than new sales. That is constructive for physical movement, but it does not yet confirm an acceleration in future demand. If sales recover, the combination of active shipments and weather-related delays could provide a stronger foundation for prices. The market also has mixed signals from the physical benchmarks: the Cotlook A Index has increased, while US futures have softened. This divergence warrants attention, particularly if it persists across further reporting periods. My assessment is that cotton remains vulnerable to short-term volatility rather than presenting a confirmed directional trend. A sustained recovery would require clearer evidence of stronger buying or a material disruption to supply. If the storm's impact proves temporary and export sales continue to ease, rallies may struggle to hold. Coming Sessions: Key Factors to Monitor Hurricane Isaias: Assess the actual rainfall, harvest delays and any reported crop damage across southeastern producing areas. US export sales: Look for a recovery in new commitments after the latest weekly decline. Export shipments: Determine whether shipments remain above year-earlier levels and continue to support physical demand. Vietnam and Pakistan buying: Monitor whether these destinations maintain their purchasing activity. China's forward commitments: Track whether reported 2027/28 sales develop into sustained demand. Cotlook A Index: Watch whether physical-market strength continues alongside softer US futures. ICE certified stocks: Monitor changes in exchange-deliverable inventories. Crude oil and the US dollar: Assess whether energy and currency movements alter cotton's cost and export-competitiveness backdrop. Today Markets View Cotton futures remain caught between weather-related supply risks and a mixed export picture. The potential for heavy rainfall to slow harvesting offers near-term support, while improved shipments and firmer physical-market indicators provide some encouragement. However, the 18.51% weekly decline in export sales highlights the need for stronger evidence of sustained demand. If harvesting resumes quickly after the storm and new sales remain subdued, nearby futures could remain under pressure. If weather disrupts supply more significantly and export commitments improve, prices could find a firmer footing. The next phase of the market will be shaped by the actual impact of the storm and whether the export-sales trend improves. Traders should follow confirmed developments rather than assume that either weather concerns or one week's sales figures will determine the broader direction. Currency Hedger View Cotton prices are affected by more than harvest conditions and export demand. Currency movements can influence the competitiveness of US cotton against other origins and change the local-currency cost of imported raw materials for mills and textile manufacturers. A weaker US dollar may improve the price competitiveness of US exports, while movements in buyers' domestic currencies can affect purchasing power and payment costs. Businesses with international cotton purchases or sales should therefore assess commodity-price exposure alongside foreign-exchange risk when planning procurement, invoicing and cross-border payments. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger – Foreign-exchange perspective, contributing to Today Markets' cotton market analysis. Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 9, 2026

WTI slips below $90.50 as Trump signals no pre-election strike on Iran

Oil Prices fall after Trump cited productive Iranian talks and ruled out military action before midterms, despite maintaining blockades. Leaked reports indicated the US had prepared three-day strike plans targeting Iranian military and energy infrastructure. Oil previously surged 5.6% following Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks and Gulf hurricane shutdowns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after posting nearly 2.5% gains in the previous day, trading around $90.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices fell following statements from US President Donald Trump on social media, where he announced that the US was engaged in "productive discussions" with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country prior to the midterm elections. While asserting that record volumes of crude were currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump emphasized that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain fully operational. However, subsequent reports indicated that the US had already prepared plans for three days of targeted strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, drone and missile stockpiles, and other strategic sites. The sudden drop in oil prices followed a sharp rally on Thursday, during which oil prices surged by up to 5.6% due to escalating maritime tensions and weather disruptions. Tehran had intensified attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting nine vessels over the previous week. Concurrently, offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico faced severe threats from Hurricane Isaias, forcing regional producers to shut in approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of crude output. Oil spike drives US yields toward multi-decade highs Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the latest flare-up in energy markets is feeding directly into rates, noting that “the impact on oil prices and global bond yields is clear, with WTI up $4/bbl on the day and trading back above $90/bbl as the US 10Y threatens fresh multi-decade highs above 5.35% nearing levels last seen in 2002.” They frame the move as a renewed test of investors’ tolerance for higher yields in the face of resurgent crude prices.

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Markets

October 9, 2026

Coffee Market Outlook: Brazil and Vietnam Supply Growth Weighs on Arabica and Robusta Futures

Coffee futures remain under pressure as expanding supplies from Brazil and Vietnam challenge weather-related production risks and tightening arabica inventories. Both arabica and robusta contracts have retreated after recent rallies, with export growth and forecasts for record global production reinforcing expectations of a better-supplied market. However, potential El Niño disruption to flowering and crop development in South America and Asia remains a significant upside risk heading into the next production cycle. The market is increasingly caught between a near-term supply recovery and uncertainty over the 2026/27 crop. Export flows, rainfall during Brazil’s flowering period, Vietnamese crop development and changes in exchange inventories are likely to determine whether coffee prices extend their declines or establish a stronger recovery. Market Snapshot Market indicatorLatest reported dataMarket implicationDecember arabica futures (KCZ26)-3.65 points, or -1.25%Bearish near-term momentumNovember robusta futures (RMX26)-62 points, or -1.78%Greater pressure from expanding supplyBrazil September coffee exports236,000 MT, up more than 20% year-on-yearBearishBrazil 2026 coffee production estimate67.6 million bagsLarger domestic supply outlookGlobal 2025/26 coffee productionRecord 183.6 million bagsBearishGlobal 2025/26 market balance3 million-bag surplusBearishICE arabica inventories260,654 bags, a two-month high in the latest cited reportPotentially bearish, despite historically low levelsICE robusta inventories5,398 lots, a ten-month highBearishGlobal 2026/27 production forecast189.7 million bags, according to the USDABearish Figures reflect the latest data provided for this market assessment; production and inventory figures refer to different reporting periods. Price Action and Market Structure December arabica coffee futures fell 3.65 points, or 1.25%, while November robusta futures declined 62 points, or 1.78%. The losses extend a two-session retreat as the market reassesses the likelihood of increased export availability from the world's leading producing countries. The pullback follows a sharp recovery earlier in the week. Arabica reached a one-month high and robusta climbed to a six-week high as the Brazilian real strengthened against the US dollar. A stronger real can discourage Brazilian producers from selling coffee for export because dollar-denominated sales become less attractive when converted into the domestic currency. That currency support has not prevented the latest decline. With Brazil's harvest approaching completion and exports accelerating, the market is increasingly focused on the volume of coffee entering international trade. The two contracts also face different supply dynamics. Arabica remains sensitive to Brazil's flowering conditions and historically low exchange-certified inventories. Robusta faces additional pressure from strong Vietnamese export growth and rising ICE stocks, although substantial speculative short positions could make its price movements more volatile. Brazil's Export Recovery Adds to Global Availability Brazil's expanding export flows are a central bearish influence for coffee prices. The country's Trade Ministry reported that September coffee exports increased by more than 20% year-on-year to 236,000 metric tonnes. Earlier figures also show a substantial increase in shipments as the Brazilian harvest moves through its export phase. Brazil's total coffee exports in August rose 31% year-on-year to a record 4.155 million bags for the month, according to Cecafé. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports climbed 54% to 953,592 bags. Separate Trade Ministry figures showed August exports rising 44.6% year-on-year to 206,618 metric tonnes, the highest monthly volume in eight months. These increases indicate that a substantial volume of Brazilian coffee is reaching international buyers. The resulting availability can limit price recoveries, particularly if importers have sufficient stocks and do not need to compete aggressively for immediate supplies. The production outlook adds to this pressure. On September 24, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million bags. Arabica production is forecast to increase 34.8% year-on-year to 48.21 million bags, while robusta production is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The projected contrast is important: Brazil's expanding arabica crop could weigh on arabica prices even as lower domestic robusta production provides some offset for that variety. A separate USDA forecast published in June projected a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year-on-year. Differences between these estimates reflect distinct forecasting assessments and should not be treated as interchangeable figures. Vietnam's Robusta Supply Strengthens the Bearish Case Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, is another major source of downward pressure. Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that September coffee exports increased 53% year-on-year to 124,000 metric tonnes. Shipments for January through September rose 16.2% to 1.45 million metric tonnes, following a 17.5% increase in total exports during 2025 to 1.58 million metric tonnes. Production forecasts also point to improved availability. Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output is projected to increase 6% year-on-year to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. Higher exports and a larger crop can give roasters and other buyers more flexibility in sourcing robusta. This may reduce the urgency to secure additional supplies at higher prices, especially while exchange inventories are also increasing. Weather remains a countervailing factor. Recent abundant rainfall in Vietnam's Central Highlands has improved soil moisture and is expected to support coffee cherry development. If these conditions continue, they could help production and reinforce the bearish supply outlook. If weather conditions deteriorate later in the growing cycle, however, the outlook could change. Global Production Forecasts Point to a Surplus The broader supply outlook remains a major obstacle to a sustained rally. On September 10, the International Coffee Organization projected 2025/26 global production at a record 183.6 million bags, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Consumption was forecast to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, leaving a projected global surplus of 3 million bags—the first surplus in five years. The USDA's July 22 assessment was more expansive for the following season. It projected global coffee production in 2026/27 to rise 6%, or 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags. The forecast included a 12% increase in global arabica production, while robusta output was expected to fall 0.7%. Global ending stocks were projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. These estimates suggest that the market could move into a period of greater availability, provided the projected crops are realised and weather does not materially disrupt production. However, production forecasts are not guaranteed outcomes. The timing and quality of rainfall, flowering success, crop development and the eventual pace of exports will determine how much of the anticipated supply reaches the market. El Niño Creates a Significant Weather Risk The potential development of a strong El Niño pattern is one of the most important bullish risks for coffee prices. Coffee trader Commercial has warned that El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, a critical period for flowering. Inadequate or poorly timed rainfall could affect flowering and reduce the potential size of Brazil's 2026/27 crop. The US Climate Prediction Center previously indicated that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Such conditions can increase the risk of drought, flooding and unusual temperature fluctuations across producing regions in South America and Asia. For coffee, the impact depends on where and when these conditions develop. Insufficient rainfall during flowering may limit fruit formation, while excessive rain can interfere with fieldwork, increase disease pressure or affect harvest operations. The immediate evidence from Brazil, however, is not uniformly negative. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received 33.3 millimetres of rainfall during the week ending October 4, equivalent to 104% of the historical average. This is potentially beneficial for the flowering stage and next year's harvest. The market therefore faces a key uncertainty: whether favourable rainfall can sustain crop development or whether an emerging El Niño pattern will disrupt production later in the season. Arabica Inventories Remain a Key Price Support Exchange inventories provide a more mixed signal. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags on September 15 before rebounding to 260,654 bags in the latest cited report, a two-month high. Although the recovery is bearish at the margin, inventories remain low relative to the historical level identified in the supplied data. Tight certified stocks can support arabica prices if buyers require prompt delivery and the flow of exchange-eligible coffee fails to keep pace with demand. This could limit the downside even as Brazil's production and exports increase. Robusta inventories tell a different story. ICE robusta stocks climbed to a ten-month high of 5,398 lots on September 24. Rising inventories, combined with stronger Vietnamese exports, reinforce the view that near-term robusta availability is improving. The distinction between the two markets is important. Arabica may retain more support from inventory constraints, while robusta remains more exposed to the combination of export growth and increasing exchange stocks. Currency Markets and Coffee Export Incentives The Brazilian real remains an important variable for both coffee prices and producer selling behaviour. The real reached a 4.75-month high against the US dollar on Tuesday, temporarily discouraging Brazilian coffee producers from increasing export sales. A stronger real can reduce the domestic-currency proceeds generated by dollar-denominated exports, potentially slowing selling activity and supporting futures. However, the effect can be temporary. When export commitments, harvest logistics and available inventories encourage shipments, higher volumes can still reach international markets despite an unfavourable exchange rate. For traders, the relationship between the real and coffee prices is therefore conditional rather than automatic. Currency strength may restrict selling at the margin, but it does not remove the bearish impact of a larger crop or sustained export growth. A weaker real could make Brazilian exports more attractive and add to supply pressure. Conversely, further currency appreciation may help limit producer selling and provide some support to arabica prices. Speculative Positioning Could Amplify a Robusta Rebound Robusta's positioning profile introduces an additional source of volatility. The latest cited weekly Commitment of Traders report showed commodity funds increasing their net-short position in robusta futures by 2,658 contracts during the week ended September 29, bringing the total to a 13-month high of 3,959 net-short positions. Heavy short positioning can reinforce downward momentum when fundamental news remains bearish. However, it can also increase the potential for a short-covering rally if prices rise unexpectedly or a significant supply concern emerges. A weather-related disruption, an interruption to export flows or a stronger-than-expected improvement in buying interest could prompt some traders to close short positions. Such activity may accelerate a rebound even before the underlying supply-demand balance changes materially. This does not guarantee a rally. It means that robusta could experience sharper two-way price movements if a new catalyst challenges the prevailing bearish outlook. Bullish Scenario: Weather Risks and Tight Arabica Stocks Support Prices Coffee prices could stabilise or recover if weather concerns begin to outweigh expectations of abundant supply. The principal bullish factors are: El Niño disruption: Delayed rainfall or adverse weather during Brazil's flowering period could reduce the potential 2026/27 crop. Arabica inventory constraints: ICE arabica stocks remain relatively low despite the recent recovery. Currency support: A stronger Brazilian real could discourage producers from selling coffee for export. Robusta short covering: The elevated net-short position could amplify a price rebound if bullish news emerges. Production forecast revisions: Evidence that the anticipated global crop is too optimistic could prompt traders to reassess the surplus outlook. For this scenario to gain traction, the market would need evidence that weather conditions are deteriorating, exports are slowing or projected production is at risk. Weather concerns alone may struggle to sustain a rally while Brazilian and Vietnamese shipments remain strong. Bearish Scenario: Record Production and Strong Exports Extend the Decline The bearish scenario remains centred on continued growth in available supply. Factors that could extend the decline include: Brazilian export momentum: Larger shipments from the world's leading producer could increase availability for international buyers. Vietnamese robusta exports: Strong year-on-year growth in shipments could keep pressure on robusta futures. Record global production: The ICO and USDA projections indicate the potential for a substantial supply base across the next two seasons. Improved growing conditions: Adequate rainfall in Brazil and Vietnam could support flowering, cherry development and harvest prospects. Rising robusta inventories: Higher exchange stocks could reduce concerns about immediate supply tightness. If these factors persist, recent price rallies may prove temporary. Robusta appears particularly exposed to rising exports and inventories, while arabica's downside could be moderated by its tighter certified-stock position and the sensitivity of Brazil's flowering cycle to rainfall. Coffee Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains cautious, with the balance of risks tilted towards further consolidation or weakness while exports and production forecasts point to greater availability. Arabica's direction will depend on whether Brazilian supply growth outweighs low exchange inventories and concerns about the next crop. A continuation of favourable rainfall could reinforce the bearish case, whereas delayed or erratic precipitation could revive concerns about future production and support prices. Robusta faces a more direct supply challenge from Vietnam's expanding exports and rising ICE inventories. Nevertheless, its substantial speculative net-short position could increase the scale of any recovery triggered by unexpected bullish developments. Rather than assuming that the current decline will continue uninterrupted, traders should monitor whether futures can stabilise as new supply enters the market. A sustained recovery would require stronger evidence of supply disruption, inventory tightening or improved demand. Supply Outlook Supply is expected to remain ample in the near term as Brazil's harvest feeds export markets and Vietnam continues to ship larger volumes. The upward revision to Conab's 2026 Brazilian crop estimate, combined with the USDA's record global production forecast, reinforces the potential for greater availability during the next marketing cycle. The principal risk is weather. Brazil's flowering period and Vietnam's cherry development remain important indicators for future production. If El Niño causes material disruption, current estimates may need to be revised. Exchange inventories should also be monitored closely. Continued growth in robusta stocks would reinforce bearish conditions, while a renewed decline in arabica stocks could help preserve a relative price premium. Demand Outlook The supplied production and export data point to a market in which supply growth is outpacing the bullish influence of near-term weather concerns. The ICO's forecast of a 0.9% decline in 2025/26 consumption also suggests limited demand-side support relative to the projected increase in production. Actual buying activity will be important in determining whether the anticipated surplus translates into persistent downward pressure. If importers and roasters have adequate coverage, they may be less inclined to compete aggressively for prompt shipments. Conversely, a recovery in buying interest combined with lower available inventories could help absorb additional supply. The market will need to distinguish between coffee that is forecast to be produced and coffee that is actually exported, stored or consumed. These flows may not occur at the same pace. Louis Roche Analysis The key issue for coffee is whether the market is pricing a supply recovery that is already visible in export data or a potential crop disruption that has yet to materialise. At present, Brazil and Vietnam are delivering clear evidence of stronger export availability, while the production outlook points towards a record global crop. These factors make it difficult for a sustained rally to develop without a meaningful change in fundamentals. However, coffee remains particularly sensitive to weather during critical crop-development stages. Brazil's flowering period creates a point of uncertainty for arabica, while the evolution of conditions across Asian producing regions matters for robusta. The market could therefore remain vulnerable to sudden price swings even when the broader supply outlook appears bearish. Arabica and robusta should not be treated as identical trades. Arabica has some support from historically low certified inventories, while robusta faces more direct pressure from rising inventories and strong Vietnamese exports. In robusta, elevated speculative short positioning adds the possibility of a sharp technical rebound if new information challenges the prevailing outlook. The next directional move is likely to depend on the interaction between physical export flows, exchange inventories, the Brazilian real and weather developments. Until there is clearer evidence of a production shortfall or stronger demand, rallies may encounter selling pressure. That assessment would need to be reconsidered if rainfall deteriorates or crop forecasts are reduced. Coming Sessions: Key Market Drivers Traders should focus on the following developments: Brazilian rainfall and flowering: Monitor whether precipitation remains supportive or becomes erratic during the critical development period. Brazilian export volumes: Further strong shipments would reinforce the near-term supply outlook; a material slowdown could reduce selling pressure. Vietnamese exports and crop conditions: Continued export growth and favourable cherry development would remain bearish for robusta. ICE inventories: Watch whether arabica stocks resume declining and whether robusta inventories continue to increase. Brazilian real movements: Currency appreciation could discourage producer selling, while depreciation may support export competitiveness. El Niño forecasts: Changes in the expected strength, timing or regional impact of the weather pattern could prompt revisions to crop estimates. Speculative positioning: Robusta's elevated net-short position may amplify reactions to unexpected supply or weather developments. Today Markets View Coffee remains exposed to near-term downside pressure as Brazil and Vietnam increase export availability and major agencies project record or near-record production. The bearish case is most pronounced in robusta, where growing Vietnamese shipments and higher ICE inventories are reinforced by the broader supply outlook. Arabica has a more balanced risk profile because historically low certified inventories and potential El Niño disruption could offset part of Brazil's expected production increase. The latest rainfall data from Minas Gerais is currently supportive of crop development, but conditions over the coming weeks remain important. The market outlook is therefore conditional: continued favourable weather and strong exports would support further weakness, while deteriorating crop conditions, inventory tightening or short covering could produce a recovery. Confirmation from physical market data will be more important than relying on futures momentum alone. Currency Hedger View Coffee prices are influenced not only by harvest volumes, inventories and demand but also by exchange-rate movements in major producing countries. Changes in the Brazilian real can affect exporter competitiveness and the incentives for producers to sell into international markets, while broader currency movements can alter the cost of imported coffee for buyers. For importers, roasters and other businesses exposed to coffee-related payments, currency volatility can affect landed costs even when the commodity price itself is stable. Monitoring foreign exchange alongside commodity fundamentals can help businesses assess their exposure to changing purchase costs and international payment obligations. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Today Markets, with Currency Hedger contributing foreign-exchange perspective. Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 9, 2026

Crude Oil Market Outlook: Prices Slip Below $91 as US-Iran Signals Clash With Escalation Risks

Crude oil prices have eased below $91 per barrel, trimming recent gains as markets assess conflicting signals surrounding US-Iran relations and the security of global energy supplies. President Donald Trump said the United States was engaged in “productive discussions” with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country before the midterm elections, easing some immediate concerns about a wider confrontation. However, the diplomatic signals have been offset by reports that the US had prepared plans for three days of strikes against Iranian targets, including drone and missile stockpiles, energy infrastructure and other sites. Meanwhile, attacks on tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, while Hurricane Isaias has threatened US offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting producers to shut in around 1.3 million barrels per day of crude output. The oil market is therefore balancing the prospect of diplomatic progress against significant risks to production, shipping and export infrastructure. The direction of prices will depend on whether tensions ease or supply disruptions intensify. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest Market ContextCrude oil priceBelow $91 per barrelRecent price movementPullback following a sharp advancePrevious session's gainPrices surged by as much as 5.6%US-Iran developmentsProductive discussions claimed by Trump, but strike plans reportedly preparedStrait of HormuzNine vessels reportedly targeted over the past weekUS naval blockadeBlockade of Iranian ports remains in placeGulf of Mexico productionAround 1.3 million barrels per day shut inMain bullish factorsShipping attacks, geopolitical escalation and production disruptionsMain bearish factorsDiplomatic progress and expectations of continued oil flows Price Action and Market Structure Crude oil has fallen below $91 per barrel, surrendering part of its recent advance after prices surged by as much as 5.6% amid intensifying attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The latest retreat reflects a reassessment of immediate geopolitical risk rather than a clear resolution of the supply outlook. Trump's comments about productive discussions with Iran have encouraged some optimism that a wider conflict could be avoided. However, reports of prepared US strike plans have kept uncertainty elevated. Oil prices are particularly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz because of the waterway's importance to international energy shipments. Any disruption can affect the availability, transportation and insurance costs of crude moving through the region. The move below $91 is an important near-term reference point, but the broader direction remains dependent on events rather than price action alone. If diplomatic progress becomes more credible, prices could face additional downward pressure. If attacks escalate or production and shipping are further disrupted, the market could quickly regain its geopolitical premium. US-Iran Relations: Diplomacy Versus Military Escalation The conflicting signals from Washington are creating a difficult environment for oil traders. Trump has stated that the United States is engaged in productive discussions with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country before the midterm elections. He has also claimed that record volumes of crude are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while making clear that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain fully in place. These statements suggest that diplomatic engagement and economic pressure are continuing simultaneously. The reported preparation of plans for three days of strikes against Iranian drone and missile stockpiles, energy infrastructure and other sites adds a further layer of uncertainty. For the oil market, the distinction between military planning and actual military action is important. Prepared strike options do not necessarily mean an attack will occur, but the possibility of escalation can influence prices, shipping decisions and risk premiums. A credible diplomatic breakthrough could reduce fears of prolonged disruption and encourage prices to retreat. Conversely, any confirmed military action against Iranian targets could raise concerns about retaliation, regional infrastructure and the security of energy exports. Strait of Hormuz: Shipping Risks Remain Elevated The Strait of Hormuz remains the central geopolitical risk for global oil markets. Nine vessels have reportedly been targeted over the past week as Tehran intensified attacks on tankers navigating the waterway. These incidents have increased concerns over maritime security and the potential for disruptions to crude shipments. Even if physical oil continues to move through the strait, heightened security risks can increase freight and insurance costs, delay deliveries and prompt shipping operators to reconsider routes or schedules. Trump's claim that record volumes of crude are passing through the waterway offers a more reassuring interpretation of current flows. However, continued attacks and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports mean that shipping conditions remain uncertain. The key question is whether current movements can be sustained without a broader escalation. If tanker traffic continues despite the security risks, some of the risk premium in crude prices could fade. If the attacks expand or shipping flows are materially interrupted, the market could price in a greater likelihood of supply shortages. Hurricane Isaias Threatens Gulf of Mexico Production Weather-related disruption is adding another supply risk to the crude oil outlook. Hurricane Isaias has threatened offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting producers to shut in approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of crude output. Production shut-ins can tighten the immediate supply balance, particularly when they coincide with geopolitical risks affecting international shipping. The scale and duration of the disruption will determine how significantly it affects available crude supplies. If offshore operations resume quickly, the production losses may prove temporary and the effect on prices could diminish. If the storm causes prolonged shutdowns or infrastructure damage, the reduction in output could provide additional support for crude. The interaction between the Gulf of Mexico disruption and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz is particularly important. Two separate supply risks can amplify market sensitivity, even if neither ultimately produces a prolonged interruption. Supply Outlook: Multiple Risks Keep the Market Vulnerable The near-term supply outlook is dominated by the uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern exports and US offshore production. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, while tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz are increasing concerns about the reliability of regional shipping. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias has prompted substantial crude production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico. These developments create the potential for supply tightness, but their ultimate effect will depend on duration and scale. Continued crude movements through Hormuz and a rapid recovery in US offshore production would limit the impact. Prolonged shipping disruption or extended production losses would leave the market more exposed to shortages. The oil market is therefore likely to remain highly responsive to operational updates, shipping reports and any change in the status of the US-Iran confrontation. Demand Outlook: Economic Risks and Energy Costs Demand expectations are also important in determining whether geopolitical supply concerns translate into a sustained price advance. Higher crude prices can increase transport, manufacturing and energy costs, placing pressure on businesses and consumers. If prices rise sharply and remain elevated, the resulting inflationary pressure could weigh on economic activity and eventually restrain oil demand. Conversely, a reduction in geopolitical tensions could ease energy costs and support confidence among energy-consuming businesses. Lower prices may also help moderate inflation pressures, although the effect depends on how sustained the decline proves to be. For now, the market's immediate focus is on supply security rather than a clear change in underlying consumption. Nevertheless, traders will need to assess whether prolonged volatility begins to affect demand expectations, particularly if elevated prices feed through to the wider economy. Bullish Scenario for Crude Oil Crude oil could move higher if geopolitical tensions intensify and supply disruptions become more persistent. US-Iran tensions escalate: The reported strike plans translate into military action, increasing the risk of retaliation or wider regional conflict. Tanker attacks continue: Further incidents in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt shipping schedules and raise the risk premium attached to regional exports. Oil flows through Hormuz deteriorate: Any material reduction in transit volumes could heighten concerns about global supply availability. Gulf of Mexico production remains offline: Extended shutdowns or storm-related damage could prolong the loss of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. Diplomatic progress stalls: A breakdown in discussions could remove a source of reassurance and prompt traders to price in greater disruption risk. Under this scenario, crude could recover above $91 per barrel as the market places greater emphasis on the possibility of supply losses and regional escalation. Bearish Scenario for Crude Oil Prices could weaken further if diplomatic progress reduces the geopolitical risk premium and supply disruptions prove temporary. US-Iran discussions advance: Credible progress toward de-escalation could reduce concerns about a wider conflict. Hormuz shipping remains resilient: Continued movement of crude through the strait would reduce fears of a major interruption to exports. Gulf production recovers: A quick return to normal operations after Hurricane Isaias would restore some of the disrupted US output. Strike risks recede: Reduced expectations of military action could encourage traders to unwind defensive positions. Demand concerns increase: Higher energy costs or broader economic uncertainty could weaken expectations for future crude consumption. In this environment, the market could extend its retreat below $91 as the geopolitical premium diminishes and attention shifts toward the underlying supply-demand balance. Price Outlook Crude oil's near-term outlook remains highly event-driven. Prices have retreated below $91 per barrel following Trump's comments about discussions with Iran, but the pullback does not eliminate the risks posed by tanker attacks, the naval blockade or reports of prepared US strike plans. The key variable is whether the diplomatic signals lead to a sustained reduction in tensions. If negotiations progress and crude continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz, prices could remain under pressure as traders reassess the risk premium. However, any further escalation could reverse the recent decline quickly. The reported targeting of nine vessels over the past week and the shut-in of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of Gulf of Mexico production leave the market vulnerable to additional supply concerns. For the coming sessions, traders should monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the status of US offshore production and any confirmation of a change in US-Iran policy. These factors are likely to have a greater immediate influence than routine price movements. Louis Roche Analysis Crude oil is trading in an environment where geopolitical headlines can rapidly alter expectations for global supply. The latest decline below $91 reflects optimism surrounding Trump's comments about productive discussions with Iran, but the market has not received a clear signal that the risks to shipping and energy infrastructure have been resolved. The continued US naval blockade of Iranian ports, intensified tanker attacks and reported preparations for possible strikes create a difficult combination for market participants. Diplomatic engagement may reduce the immediate probability of escalation, but it can coexist with military planning and ongoing economic pressure. The Gulf of Mexico production shutdown adds another important variable. With around 1.3 million barrels per day of crude output reportedly offline, the market must also assess how quickly production can recover as Hurricane Isaias moves through the region. My assessment is that crude remains vulnerable to sharp two-way movements. A sustained easing in tensions, resilient shipping flows and a quick recovery in US production would support further price moderation. A breakdown in diplomacy, additional tanker attacks or prolonged production losses could quickly restore upward pressure. The important distinction is between a reduction in perceived risk and a genuine improvement in supply conditions. Until there is clearer evidence of both, the market is likely to remain sensitive to every major development. Coming Sessions: What to Watch US-Iran diplomatic developments: Look for concrete evidence of progress rather than relying solely on public statements. Reports of possible military action: Any confirmation, cancellation or change in the reported strike plans could quickly influence crude prices. Strait of Hormuz shipping activity: Monitor tanker attacks, transit volumes and signs of material disruption to crude movements. US naval blockade: Changes in enforcement or the status of the blockade could affect expectations for Iranian exports. Gulf of Mexico production: Updates on the recovery of the approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of shut-in output will help clarify the scale of the weather-related disruption. Oil price reaction around $91: The ability of crude to reclaim or remain below this level may reflect whether geopolitical risk is increasing or fading. Demand expectations: Watch for signs that higher energy costs are affecting the economic outlook and expectations for oil consumption. Today Markets View Crude oil has slipped below $91 per barrel as hopes of US-Iran dialogue offset some of the pressure from tanker attacks and supply disruptions. However, the market remains exposed to renewed escalation, with the US naval blockade still in place and reports of prepared strike plans adding uncertainty. The Gulf of Mexico shutdown of around 1.3 million barrels per day introduces a separate supply risk. If production recovers quickly and shipping through Hormuz remains resilient, prices could extend their retreat. If disruptions persist or military tensions intensify, the market could regain its upward momentum. The outlook remains volatile and event-driven, with diplomacy, shipping security and the recovery of US offshore output likely to determine the next sustained move. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Oil-price volatility can affect fuel procurement, shipping expenses, supplier contracts and the value of cross-border payments. Businesses exposed to energy markets should assess commodity-price risk alongside currency movements, particularly where purchases, revenues and operating costs are denominated in different currencies. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 9, 2026

Fund Profit-Taking Undercuts Sugar Prices

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH27) closed down -0.68 (-3.26%) on Thursday, and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ26) closed down -14.60 (-2.63%). Sugar prices settled sharply lower on Thursday as fund profit-taking emerged following the recent two-week rally. On Wednesday, NY sugar climbed to a 19-month nearest-futures high and London sugar to a 22-month high as ongoing rains in Brazil’s Center-South sugar-growing region slowed harvesting and disrupted cane crushing at Brazil’s sugar mills, curbing supplies.  The outlook for a global deficit is also supporting sugar prices.  On September 1, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT versus a +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  Meanwhile, the Thai Sugar Millers Corp on September 7 projected that 2026/27 Thailand sugar production could fall -17% y/y to 10 MMT.  Thailand is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter.  Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are also bullish for sugar prices.  A super El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  The US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,000 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, Czarnikow on August 14 predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. India’s Meteorological Department reported last Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 12.6% below normal as of September 30, the weakest in 11 years. India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -2.5% y/y to 42.2 MMT.  FAS also predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would decrease by -1.7% y/y to 29.5 MMT, and that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production would fall by 15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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October 9, 2026

Gold Market Outlook: Bullion Holds Near $4,150 as Fed Rate Uncertainty and Middle East Risks Persist

Gold is holding near $4,150 an ounce as investors weigh competing forces from geopolitical uncertainty, energy-market volatility and the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Bullion is on track to finish the week little changed, with easing oil prices providing some relief to inflation concerns while tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support demand for defensive assets. President Donald Trump’s comments that the United States is engaged in “productive discussions” with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country before the midterm elections have helped ease immediate concerns over a wider confrontation. However, intensified attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and a hurricane disrupting offshore US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico continue to complicate the energy outlook. At the same time, markets are weighing the possibility of an October Federal Reserve pause against expectations of a potential rate increase in December. This leaves gold sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, the US dollar and expectations for the future path of interest rates. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest Market ContextGold priceNear $4,150 per ounceWeekly directionOn track to finish little changedGeopolitical backdropUS-Iran discussions alongside continued tanker attacks in the Strait of HormuzOil marketPrices easing amid diplomatic signals, with supply risks remainingFed October expectationsApproximately 82% probability of rates remaining unchangedFed December expectationsAround 81% probability of a rate hikeInflation targetFederal Reserve's 2% objectiveKey driversTreasury yields, dollar direction, Fed policy and geopolitical risk Price Action and Market Structure Gold is consolidating near $4,150 an ounce as traders assess the balance between safe-haven demand and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The metal's relatively steady performance suggests that investors are not yet committing decisively to either a sustained bullish or bearish direction. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide support, while expectations of further monetary tightening limit the potential for a stronger advance. Gold generally benefits when real interest rates decline because the relative cost of holding an asset that does not pay interest becomes less restrictive. Conversely, rising yields can make interest-bearing assets more attractive and weigh on bullion, particularly when higher rates also support the US dollar. The $4,150 area is therefore an important reference point for short-term market sentiment. A sustained move higher would suggest that defensive demand is overcoming pressure from interest-rate expectations. A break lower could indicate that monetary-policy concerns are becoming more influential. Middle East Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand Developments in the Middle East remain a key influence on gold. President Trump's comments about productive discussions with Iran have eased immediate concerns over a US attack before the midterm elections. However, continued attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz show that the regional security situation remains uncertain. The Strait is a critical route for global energy shipments. Any prolonged disruption could increase transportation costs, raise oil prices and heighten concerns about the wider economic consequences of the conflict. For gold, the impact is two-sided. Heightened geopolitical risk can increase demand for defensive assets as investors seek protection from uncertainty. However, a sustained rise in oil prices could also intensify inflation concerns and strengthen expectations that central banks will maintain restrictive monetary policy. If diplomatic progress reduces the perceived risk of escalation, some safe-haven demand could fade. If tanker attacks intensify or negotiations break down, gold could receive renewed support as investors reassess the risks to global markets. Oil Prices and the Inflation Outlook Oil prices have eased following Trump's comments on Iran, but supply risks remain elevated. Alongside the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a hurricane has disrupted offshore US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. These developments highlight the vulnerability of energy supplies to both geopolitical and weather-related disruptions. Lower oil prices can support gold indirectly by easing concerns about energy-driven inflation. If cheaper energy feeds through to consumer prices, the Federal Reserve may have greater flexibility in determining the pace of monetary tightening. However, the effect depends on whether the decline in oil prices is sustained. Renewed supply disruption could reverse the recent move, keeping inflation risks elevated and reinforcing expectations for higher interest rates. Gold traders will therefore need to distinguish between a temporary decline in energy prices and a broader reduction in inflationary pressure. Federal Reserve Policy: Pause Now, Potential Hike Later Federal Reserve expectations remain a major source of uncertainty for precious metals. Markets are currently pricing in approximately an 82% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month, while the probability of a December rate hike stands at around 81%. This combination suggests that investors are considering a near-term pause without ruling out further tightening later in the year. For gold, the timing and rationale behind any policy change are as important as the decision itself. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem has indicated that interest rates may need to rise over the next six to nine months to bring inflation back toward the central bank's 2% target. Such a stance could place pressure on bullion if markets respond by pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. However, if policymakers pause because inflation is moderating or economic conditions are weakening, the impact on gold could be less negative. Falling yields and a softer dollar could offset the effect of restrictive policy expectations. The key question is whether the Fed's next moves will keep real yields elevated or eventually create conditions more supportive of gold. Bullish Scenario for Gold Gold could extend its advance if geopolitical uncertainty increases or financial conditions become more supportive of precious metals. Escalation around the Strait of Hormuz: Further attacks on tankers or a breakdown in US-Iran discussions could increase safe-haven demand. Treasury yields decline: Lower yields would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The US dollar weakens: A softer dollar could make gold less expensive for holders of other currencies and support international demand. The Fed signals greater flexibility: A pause that shifts expectations away from further tightening could support bullion if it leads to lower yields. Economic uncertainty rises: Concerns over global growth, energy security or financial-market stability could encourage investors to increase defensive allocations. Under this scenario, gold could break out of its current consolidation near $4,150 as safe-haven demand and more favourable interest-rate conditions reinforce one another. Bearish Scenario for Gold Gold could come under pressure if expectations of higher interest rates strengthen and geopolitical risks ease. The Fed reinforces its hawkish stance: Clear signals that further rate increases are necessary to control inflation could weigh on bullion. Treasury yields rise: Higher yields would increase the relative opportunity cost of holding gold. The dollar strengthens: A stronger US currency could make bullion more expensive for international buyers. US-Iran discussions progress: A sustained reduction in geopolitical risk could reduce demand for defensive assets. Oil prices remain lower: If energy prices ease persistently, inflation concerns could moderate, but the resulting reduction in safe-haven demand may also weigh on gold. In this environment, the metal could retreat from the $4,150 area as investors shift attention toward returns available from interest-bearing assets. Price Outlook Gold's near-term outlook remains balanced, with the market consolidating near $4,150 an ounce as investors assess the competing effects of geopolitical risk and monetary policy. The next sustained move is likely to depend on changes in Treasury yields, the US dollar and the market's interpretation of Federal Reserve communications. A decline in yields alongside renewed geopolitical concerns would create a more supportive environment for bullion. By contrast, rising yields and a stronger dollar could limit further gains, particularly if the probability of a December rate increase remains elevated. Energy prices are another important variable. Continued easing in oil could reduce inflation concerns, while renewed disruption to Middle Eastern shipping or US offshore production could increase volatility across commodities and financial markets. Rather than treating the current consolidation as a clear directional signal, investors should watch for confirmation from bond markets and geopolitical developments before drawing conclusions about gold's next move. Supply Outlook: Energy Disruptions and Market Uncertainty Gold's physical supply is not directly affected by the oil disruptions described in the current market backdrop. However, energy prices can influence mining costs, transportation expenses and broader inflation expectations. A prolonged increase in energy costs could raise operating expenses for gold producers and affect margins, particularly at energy-intensive mining operations. At the same time, higher inflation risks could influence central-bank policy and financial-market demand for bullion. The immediate supply outlook is therefore less important to price direction than the interaction between investor demand, interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty. For the coming sessions, gold's response to changes in financial conditions is likely to remain the dominant influence. Demand Outlook: Safe-Haven Interest and Investment Flows Investment demand is likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and the expected path of US interest rates. If tensions in the Middle East intensify, investors may increase exposure to gold as a hedge against uncertainty. If diplomatic progress reduces the risk of a wider conflict, defensive demand could moderate. Interest-rate expectations will also shape demand. Gold can become more attractive when yields decline or the dollar weakens, while higher real yields can encourage investors to favour interest-bearing assets. The interaction between these factors is especially important in the current environment. Geopolitical developments may support gold at the same time that expectations of further Fed tightening limit its upside. Louis Roche Analysis Gold's consolidation near $4,150 reflects a market caught between two competing narratives. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to create a reason for investors to hold defensive assets, but expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening are limiting the metal's ability to establish a stronger upward trend. The latest comments from the US administration have reduced immediate fears of a direct attack on Iran before the midterm elections. However, continued tanker attacks through the Strait of Hormuz mean the risk of further disruption has not disappeared. The hurricane-related interruption to Gulf of Mexico oil production adds another variable to the energy outlook. For gold, the most important question is how these developments affect interest-rate expectations. If lower oil prices help moderate inflation concerns and Treasury yields decline, bullion could gain support even if geopolitical tensions ease somewhat. If energy disruptions push inflation expectations higher and strengthen the case for additional rate increases, the impact could be negative. Musalem's comments about the possible need for higher rates over the next six to nine months reinforce the risk that monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer. Nevertheless, the possibility of an October pause means that the market's reaction will depend on the Fed's explanation and the data available at the time. My assessment is that gold remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty but lacks a clear catalyst for a sustained move higher while December rate-hike expectations remain elevated. A more convincing bullish signal would be a combination of renewed safe-haven demand, falling yields and a weaker dollar. Conversely, a hawkish repricing of Fed policy alongside easing geopolitical risks could leave bullion vulnerable to a pullback. Coming Sessions: What to Watch US-Iran developments: Any escalation or progress in discussions could affect safe-haven demand and oil prices. Strait of Hormuz shipping: Further attacks or prolonged disruption could increase geopolitical risk premiums. Treasury yields: Falling yields could support gold, while a rebound could increase pressure on bullion. Federal Reserve communications: Statements from policymakers will help clarify the balance between an October pause and possible December tightening. Inflation expectations: Changes in energy prices and incoming economic data could influence expectations for future interest rates. US dollar direction: A weaker dollar could support gold, while renewed strength could limit gains. Gold around $4,150: The market's ability to hold this area or break decisively away from it may provide clues about the next directional move. Today Markets View Gold is holding near $4,150 an ounce as investors weigh Middle East risks against the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening. Easing oil prices and hopes for continued US-Iran discussions have reduced some immediate inflation and geopolitical concerns, but tanker attacks and disrupted US offshore production keep the energy outlook uncertain. The Fed remains the key macroeconomic influence. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged this month but continue to assign a high probability to a December increase. This combination may keep gold range-bound until Treasury yields, the dollar or geopolitical developments provide a clearer direction. The outlook is cautiously balanced. Renewed regional escalation and falling yields could support a breakout, while a stronger dollar, rising yields and easing geopolitical risk could trigger a pullback. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. For businesses trading gold or operating across international markets, movements in the US dollar can affect commodity costs, settlement values and operating margins. Monitoring foreign-exchange exposure alongside precious-metal prices can help companies evaluate their international payment requirements and manage currency risk. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 9, 2026

Cocoa Market Outlook: West African Weather Risks Offset Rising Inventories and Weak Chocolate Demand

Cocoa futures are finding support from concerns over continued rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire, where wet conditions have disrupted transport infrastructure and slowed deliveries to export ports. December ICE New York cocoa futures gained 1.49% to settle higher, while December ICE London cocoa rose 1.41%, as weather-related supply risks offset pressure from rising exchange inventories and signs of weaker chocolate demand. The cocoa market faces conflicting fundamentals. Current-season production and shipments from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have increased, while elevated inventories and weaker European processing figures suggest demand remains under pressure. Looking ahead, however, forecasts of a smaller 2026/27 West African crop, the potential effects of a strong El Niño and disease-related quality concerns could tighten global supply and provide medium-term price support. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest Market ContextDecember ICE New York cocoaClosed up 83 points, or 1.49%December ICE London cocoaClosed up 59 points, or 1.41%ICE cocoa inventories3,559,258 bags, a 2.25-year highCôte d’Ivoire 2025/26 harvest2.06 MMT, up 30% year-on-yearCôte d’Ivoire shipments2.18 MMT, up 19.8% year-on-yearCôte d’Ivoire 2026/27 crop estimateAround 1.8 MMT, down 18%Ghana 2026/27 crop estimate650,000 MT, down 13% in the field-survey estimateStoneX 2026/27 global surplus estimate25,000 MTTransgraph Consulting 2026/27 surplus forecast80,000 MTMain bullish factorsExcessive rainfall, El Niño risk, crop disease and lower West African production forecastsMain bearish factorsRising inventories, strong current-season shipments and uneven chocolate demand Price Action and Market Structure December ICE New York cocoa futures advanced 83 points, equivalent to 1.49%, while December ICE London cocoa rose 59 points, or 1.41%. Both contracts recovered from early-session weakness as forecasts of continued rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire renewed concerns over the movement of cocoa beans to export ports. The recovery reflects the market's competing influences. Rising ICE inventories initially weighed on prices, while concerns over transport disruption and the outlook for the next West African crop provided support. Cocoa has experienced pressure over the past month as evidence of stronger current-season production has emerged. However, attention is increasingly shifting toward the 2026/27 crop, with early field assessments pointing to weaker pod development and potentially lower output. This creates a divided outlook: abundant supplies and demand concerns may limit near-term rallies, while deteriorating weather conditions and a smaller next-season harvest could underpin prices over a longer horizon. Côte d’Ivoire Rainfall and Export Logistics Côte d’Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, remains central to the market outlook. Continued rainfall has reportedly damaged bridges and cut off roads, slowing the movement of cocoa from growing regions to export ports. These disruptions can affect the timing of deliveries and create short-term supply uncertainty, even when the underlying crop is relatively large. If transport problems persist, export flows could become less predictable and provide temporary support to futures prices. However, rainfall has a two-sided effect. While excessive precipitation can disrupt logistics, persistent wet conditions can also increase the risk of black pod disease and damage crop quality. Limited sunshine and high moisture levels in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have raised concerns about disease spreading through West African cocoa-growing regions. The impact on prices will depend on whether the rainfall primarily delays deliveries or results in lasting losses to crop volume and quality. Rising ICE Inventories Weigh on Prices ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have steadily increased since the beginning of the year, reaching 3,559,258 bags and a 2.25-year high. Higher exchange inventories can ease concerns over immediately available supplies and reduce the urgency for buyers to secure additional cocoa. This has created a significant headwind for futures, particularly as the market assesses signs of softer chocolate demand. Inventory growth does not necessarily mean that global cocoa production will remain abundant throughout the next season. Nevertheless, the current stock build provides a cushion against short-term delivery disruptions and may limit the impact of adverse weather unless production forecasts deteriorate further. Traders will need to monitor whether inventories continue rising or begin to stabilise as the new marketing season progresses. A sustained reversal in stock levels could strengthen the argument that supply is tightening, while continued accumulation would reinforce the bearish near-term outlook. Côte d’Ivoire Production and Shipment Outlook Current-season output from Côte d’Ivoire has been strong. The country's cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café-Cacao, reported that the harvest reached 2.06 million metric tons between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier. Separately, cumulative shipments to ports reached 2.18 MMT between October 1, 2025, and September 27, 2026, representing a 19.8% increase from the comparable year-earlier period. These figures indicate substantial availability from the current crop and help explain the pressure on cocoa prices over the past month. There is an important marketing-year distinction: the shipment comparison follows the international cocoa marketing year beginning October 1, while Côte d’Ivoire has moved the start of its 2026/27 domestic marketing year forward to September 1. These figures therefore describe different reporting periods and should not be treated as directly interchangeable. Looking ahead, early surveys point to a potentially smaller next crop. Poor cherelle formation and weak pod development have raised concerns about the main harvest that began this month. Current early estimates suggest production could fall to approximately 1.8 MMT in 2026/27, down 18% from around 2.2 MMT in 2025/26. If this lower estimate proves accurate, the market could shift from current-season abundance toward a tighter supply balance later in the marketing year. El Niño and West African Weather Risks Medium-term cocoa prices have an additional source of support from the potential development of a strong El Niño weather pattern. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. El Niño is typically associated with warmer and drier conditions in parts of West Africa. For cocoa, reduced soil moisture and heat stress can affect tree health, pod development and yields. The actual impact will depend on the timing, intensity and regional distribution of the weather pattern. The risk is particularly significant because early assessments already suggest below-average cherelle formation in Côte d’Ivoire. If adverse weather compounds weak initial pod development, the next main crop could fall short of current expectations. Nevertheless, the potential effects should not be treated as guaranteed production losses. Rainfall distribution, farm conditions and the timing of the weather pattern will determine the ultimate effect on cocoa output. Ghana Production: A Potential Source of Supply Tightness Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, is another key factor in the supply outlook. Ghana's Cocoa Board reported that production for the 2025/26 season reached 750,000 MT, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. This strong current-season output adds to evidence that supplies have improved across West Africa. The outlook for 2026/27 is less favourable. A field survey of pod counts produced an estimate of 650,000 MT, down 13% from the 750,000 MT reported for 2025/26. A separate projection from Ghana's regulator, COCOBOD, was more cautious. On July 30, it indicated that production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 MT, compared with a projected 750,000 MT for 2025/26. The regulator cited swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and the potential impact of adverse El Niño weather. These estimates differ considerably, reflecting uncertainty around the scale of the next crop. If production approaches the lower end of COCOBOD's range, the reduction in Ghanaian supply could materially tighten the global market. Global Cocoa Surplus Forecasts Narrow Forecasts for the 2026/27 global cocoa balance have become more supportive of prices as analysts account for potential West African production risks. StoneX reduced its estimate of the global cocoa surplus for 2026/27 to 25,000 MT from 149,000 MT in April, citing the risks to West African production associated with an expected El Niño. Transgraph Consulting also projected a smaller surplus, forecasting 80,000 MT for 2026/27 compared with 415,000 MT in 2025/26. Its outlook assumes global production declines to 4.87 MMT from 5.11 MMT. Although both forecasts point to a substantial reduction in the surplus, they do not yet indicate a global deficit. The extent of any tightening will depend on actual crop yields, disease pressure, weather conditions and demand recovery. The difference between the estimates also illustrates the uncertainty surrounding the market. A small surplus would leave less room for production shortfalls, making cocoa prices more sensitive to adverse weather or export disruption. Chocolate Demand and Processing Margins Demand remains a significant bearish influence, particularly as high cocoa costs continue to affect manufacturers and consumers. Cargill, the world's second-largest cocoa processor, reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa for the quarter ended August 31. The losses suggest that the company faced difficulty passing higher cocoa costs through to customers, highlighting the pressure on processing margins. Chocolate manufacturer Lindt & Sprüngli has also reduced chocolate prices for a second time this year and lowered its 2026 organic sales growth outlook to between 0% and 2%, from a previous range of 4% to 6%. The company cited subdued consumer sentiment. These developments suggest that elevated cocoa prices have challenged the ability of manufacturers to maintain margins and sustain consumer demand. Price reductions may help stimulate sales, but they also underline the pressure on the chocolate industry's profitability. The market will be watching for evidence that lower retail prices improve consumption or whether demand remains constrained by household spending pressures. Regional Cocoa Grindings: Mixed Demand Signals Second-quarter cocoa processing data presented a mixed picture across major consuming regions. Europe: The European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 grindings fell 4.6% year-on-year to 316,366 MT. The decline was larger than the expected 1.5% decrease and marked the lowest second-quarter level in six years. North America: The National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 grindings rose 7.7% year-on-year to 109,659 MT, significantly outperforming expectations for a 1% decline. Asia: The Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 grindings increased 25% year-on-year to 224,646 MT, well above expectations for growth of 9%. The European figures reinforce concerns that high cocoa costs and weaker consumer sentiment are restraining demand. By contrast, stronger processing volumes in North America and Asia indicate that consumption trends are not uniformly negative. The regional divergence is important. A sustained recovery in Asian and North American processing could absorb some of the additional supply available from the current crop. If European weakness spreads to other markets, however, demand could remain insufficient to offset rising inventories and production growth. Bullish Scenario for Cocoa Cocoa prices could strengthen if supply risks begin to outweigh the current inventory and demand pressures. Persistent rainfall disrupts exports: Continued damage to roads and bridges in Côte d’Ivoire could delay deliveries and reduce the availability of cocoa at ports. El Niño damages the next crop: Warmer, drier conditions could reduce soil moisture and impair pod development across West Africa. Disease reduces yields and quality: Black pod disease and swollen shoot disease could lower usable production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The 2026/27 crop disappoints: Production closer to the lower estimates for Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana would tighten the global balance. The global surplus narrows further: Any downward revisions to production or stronger-than-expected demand could reduce the projected surplus. Under this scenario, the market could become increasingly sensitive to weather forecasts and crop reports, with supply concerns providing support even if current inventories remain elevated. Bearish Scenario for Cocoa Prices could remain under pressure if current-season abundance and weaker chocolate demand continue to dominate market sentiment. ICE inventories keep rising: Further stock accumulation would suggest that immediately available supply remains comfortable. Côte d’Ivoire shipments remain strong: Continued export flows could confirm the strength of the current crop. The next crop performs better than expected: More favourable weather or improved pod development could challenge the projected production decline. Chocolate demand remains subdued: Weak European grindings and pressure on manufacturers' margins could constrain purchases. Regional demand growth fades: A slowdown in North American or Asian processing could reduce the support provided by stronger Q2 figures. If these conditions persist, cocoa futures could struggle to sustain rallies, particularly while inventories are high and global production remains sufficient to cover demand. Price Outlook Cocoa's near-term outlook remains mixed, with weather-related supply risks supporting prices while rising ICE inventories and demand concerns limit the recovery. The key near-term issue is whether continued rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire causes prolonged export disruption or whether deliveries recover as transport conditions improve. Strong current-season shipments and the recent inventory build provide a cushion against temporary disruptions. The medium-term outlook is more sensitive to the 2026/27 crop. Early estimates point to lower production in both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, while the potential effects of El Niño and crop disease add uncertainty to the supply outlook. The reduction in projected global surpluses from StoneX and Transgraph Consulting suggests that the market could become more vulnerable to production shortfalls. However, a smaller surplus is not the same as a deficit, and the outlook will depend on how actual production compares with these estimates. Demand will be equally important. If lower chocolate prices help revive consumption and regional processing remains firm, the market could absorb more supply. If European weakness spreads and manufacturers continue struggling to pass through costs, demand could remain a significant restraint. Overall, cocoa is likely to remain sensitive to West African weather, export flows, exchange inventories and processing data. The market's direction will depend on which of the competing forces becomes dominant. Coming Sessions: What to Watch Côte d’Ivoire rainfall and transport conditions: Monitor whether flooding and damaged infrastructure continue to disrupt cocoa deliveries to ports. ICE inventory trends: Further increases could cap price recoveries, while stabilisation or a decline could signal tighter nearby availability. 2026/27 crop assessments: New estimates for Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana will help clarify whether early concerns about pod formation translate into lower output. El Niño forecasts: Changes in the expected strength and timing of the weather pattern could affect medium-term production expectations. Cocoa grindings: The next processing figures will indicate whether demand weakness in Europe is offset by North American and Asian consumption. Global surplus revisions: Any further cuts to production or surplus estimates could strengthen the market's sensitivity to weather and supply disruptions. Chocolate manufacturer guidance: Updates on pricing, margins and sales volumes will provide clues about the industry's ability to absorb high cocoa costs. Louis Roche Analysis Cocoa is currently being pulled in two directions. The supply picture for the season just completed is relatively comfortable, with Côte d’Ivoire's harvest up 30% and shipments up almost 20% year-on-year. Rising ICE inventories reinforce the view that near-term availability is not especially tight. At the same time, the outlook for the next West African crop is becoming more uncertain. Early indications of poor pod formation, disease pressure and the possibility of a strong El Niño raise legitimate concerns about production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The downward revisions to projected global surpluses suggest that the cushion between supply and demand could narrow considerably. Demand remains the main counterweight to these risks. European grindings have weakened, and the experiences of Cargill and Lindt & Sprüngli illustrate the commercial difficulty of passing elevated cocoa costs on to consumers. Stronger North American and Asian processing figures are encouraging, but it remains unclear whether those gains can offset the weakness in Europe. My assessment is that cocoa's near-term direction will depend on inventories, export logistics and demand data, while the medium-term balance increasingly hinges on the next West African crop. A sustained price recovery would be more convincing if it coincided with evidence of tightening physical supply rather than weather concerns alone. For the coming sessions, the most important distinction is between temporary delivery delays and genuine production losses. The former may create short-lived price support; the latter could materially change the global balance and make the market more vulnerable to further supply shocks. Today Markets View Cocoa futures have recovered as rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire raises concerns about export logistics, but the market continues to face pressure from rising inventories, strong current-season production and uneven chocolate demand. The outlook for 2026/27 is more supportive, with early crop assessments suggesting lower production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana and analysts reducing their global surplus forecasts. El Niño and crop disease could intensify these risks, although the eventual impact remains uncertain. The balance of risks is therefore divided: near-term fundamentals remain challenged by available supplies and demand sensitivity, while medium-term prospects depend on whether West African crop estimates deteriorate further. Weather developments, inventory movements and regional grindings will be crucial in determining the next sustained price direction. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. For cocoa traders, processors and chocolate manufacturers, currency movements can influence the cost of imported beans, international procurement contracts and revenue received across different markets. Businesses with cross-border exposure should assess foreign-exchange risk alongside commodity-price volatility when planning purchases and managing margins. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Forex Trading

October 9, 2026

US Dollar Market Outlook: Falling Treasury Yields Weigh on the Greenback Amid Fed Rate Uncertainty

The US dollar index has weakened toward 102, extending recent losses as declining Treasury yields and easing concerns over tensions with Iran reduce support for the greenback. A well-received 30-year Treasury bond auction suggests investors remain willing to purchase long-dated US government debt despite recent selling pressure, helping push yields lower and influencing expectations for the dollar. Currency markets are also assessing the implications of lower oil prices following President Donald Trump's comments that the United States is engaged in “productive discussions” with Iran and would refrain from attacking the country before the US midterm elections. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's next policy decision continues to create conflicting signals for the dollar, with markets weighing the possibility of a near-term pause against expectations of further tightening later in the year. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest Market ContextUS Dollar Index (DXY)Around 102Recent directionExtending losses as Treasury yields declineTreasury marketStrong demand at the 30-year bond auctionGeopolitical factorUS-Iran discussions ease immediate escalation concernsFed rate expectationsApproximately 82% probability of rates remaining unchanged this monthDecember rate expectationsAround 81% probability of a rate hikeInflation targetFederal Reserve's 2% objectiveKey driversTreasury yields, Fed policy expectations, oil prices and geopolitical developments Price Action and Market Structure The US dollar index has moved lower toward 102, extending its decline as Treasury yields retreat from recent levels. The latest move highlights the sensitivity of the dollar to changes in the expected return on US assets. Falling yields can reduce the relative attraction of dollar-denominated investments, particularly when investors anticipate that interest-rate differentials between the United States and other major economies may narrow. However, the relationship is not automatic: the dollar can still strengthen if global risk aversion increases or if US economic data outperform expectations. The successful reception of the 30-year Treasury auction is an important development. Demand for long-dated government debt suggests that investors remain prepared to absorb supply despite the recent bond-market selloff. This has helped ease upward pressure on yields and contributed to the dollar's latest weakness. The 102 area is an important reference point for market sentiment. A sustained move lower could signal that bearish momentum is strengthening, while a recovery would suggest that interest-rate expectations or renewed demand for the dollar are beginning to offset the pressure from declining yields. Treasury Yields and Bond-Market Demand The decline in Treasury yields is a central driver of the dollar's recent performance. The well-received 30-year bond auction indicates that investors continue to see value in long-duration US government debt, even after recent volatility. Stronger demand can support bond prices and lower yields, easing some of the pressure that had been building in the Treasury market. For foreign-exchange markets, the next question is whether this improvement represents a lasting change in investor demand or a temporary response to more attractive yields following the recent selloff. If Treasury yields continue to fall, the dollar could face additional headwinds as the relative return on US assets becomes less compelling. Conversely, renewed bond selling, stronger inflation data or a more hawkish Federal Reserve could push yields higher and provide support for the greenback. Investors will therefore be watching Treasury-market performance alongside economic releases and Federal Reserve communications rather than treating the latest auction as a definitive turning point. Federal Reserve Policy: Pause Versus Further Tightening Federal Reserve expectations remain a major source of uncertainty for the dollar. Markets are pricing in approximately an 82% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting. At the same time, the probability of a rate hike in December stands at around 81%, according to the supplied market pricing. These expectations indicate that investors are considering the possibility of a near-term pause followed by renewed tightening later in the year. That combination creates a complicated backdrop for currency markets, as short-term policy expectations may differ from the anticipated direction of rates over a longer horizon. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has argued that further rate increases would likely be necessary to return inflation to the central bank's 2% target. However, his comments also leave room for flexibility over the timing and pace of additional tightening, including the possibility of a pause at the October meeting. For the dollar, the distinction is important. A pause could weigh on the currency if investors interpret it as the beginning of a prolonged period of unchanged rates. If policymakers instead signal that further increases remain likely, expectations of tighter US monetary policy could support the greenback, particularly against currencies whose central banks are expected to maintain or reduce rates. The key risk is a shift in market pricing as incoming inflation, employment and growth data clarify the Fed's likely course. Oil Prices and US-Iran Developments Lower oil prices have provided another important influence on market sentiment. President Trump's comments about productive discussions with Iran, alongside his statement that the United States would refrain from attacking the country before the midterm elections, have eased immediate concerns about military escalation. A reduction in geopolitical risk can lower the premium attached to energy prices and reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets in some market conditions. This can create additional pressure on the US dollar, although the response depends on broader investor positioning and the relative performance of other currencies. Oil prices also matter for the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook. A sustained decline in energy costs could moderate headline inflation pressures, potentially giving policymakers more flexibility. However, a renewed increase in oil prices could reverse that effect and complicate the central bank's efforts to return inflation to target. The outlook remains sensitive to developments in US-Iran relations. Diplomatic progress could support lower energy prices and reduce safe-haven demand, while a breakdown in discussions could restore geopolitical risk premiums and trigger renewed volatility across currencies and commodities. Bullish Scenario for the US Dollar The dollar could recover if market conditions begin to favour higher US yields and tighter monetary policy. Treasury yields rebound: Renewed bond selling or stronger economic data could lift yields and improve the relative attraction of dollar assets. The Fed reinforces its hawkish stance: Clear signals that additional rate increases are necessary could support the dollar. Inflation remains persistent: Evidence that inflation is not returning sustainably toward 2% could increase expectations of further tightening. Geopolitical risks return: Renewed US-Iran tensions or broader market uncertainty could increase demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency. Global growth weakens: A deterioration in international economic conditions could support dollar demand, particularly if investors reduce exposure to risk-sensitive currencies. Under this scenario, the dollar index could recover from the 102 area as investors reassess the outlook for US interest rates and demand for dollar-denominated assets improves. Bearish Scenario for the US Dollar Further weakness could emerge if Treasury yields continue to decline and markets become less convinced that the Fed will deliver additional rate increases. Bond demand remains strong: Continued demand for long-dated Treasuries could push yields lower and reduce the dollar's yield advantage. The October pause gains significance: Investors could interpret an unchanged policy decision as the start of a longer pause in tightening. Inflation pressures ease: Lower energy prices and softer inflation data could reduce expectations of further rate increases. US-Iran tensions ease: Continued diplomatic progress could reduce safe-haven demand and keep oil prices under pressure. Other major currencies strengthen: Improving economic conditions or more hawkish policy expectations abroad could weaken the dollar on a relative basis. In this environment, the dollar index could extend its decline below the 102 area. The sustainability of such a move would depend on whether falling yields and changing Fed expectations continue to reinforce one another. Price Outlook The near-term outlook for the US dollar remains cautious, with the index around 102 and Treasury yields acting as a key source of directional pressure. The next move will depend largely on whether the bond-market rally continues and how investors interpret Federal Reserve communications. If yields decline further and expectations of a prolonged policy pause strengthen, the dollar could remain under pressure. However, the elevated market-implied probability of a December rate hike indicates that investors have not abandoned the prospect of further tightening. Any confirmation from policymakers or stronger-than-expected economic data could prompt a reassessment and support a dollar recovery. Geopolitical developments add another layer of uncertainty. A continued reduction in US-Iran tensions could weigh on safe-haven demand, while renewed confrontation could quickly reverse recent moves in oil prices and currency markets. The most useful indicators to monitor are the direction of Treasury yields, changes in Fed rate expectations and whether the dollar index can maintain its position around the 102 level. Supply Outlook: Treasury Issuance and Investor Demand For the US dollar, the relevant supply-side consideration is the Treasury market rather than physical commodity supply. The well-received 30-year bond auction suggests that investor demand remains sufficient to absorb long-duration government debt despite recent market volatility. Strong demand can help stabilise bond prices and reduce upward pressure on yields. However, the longer-term outlook will depend on the balance between government borrowing needs, inflation expectations and investor appetite for duration risk. If Treasury supply grows or investors demand greater compensation for holding long-dated debt, yields could rise again. Such a development could support the dollar through higher relative returns, although concerns over fiscal sustainability or market volatility could complicate the currency response. Demand Outlook: Dollar Assets and Global Risk Appetite Demand for the dollar is likely to remain closely tied to interest-rate differentials, the relative strength of the US economy and global risk sentiment. Lower Treasury yields can reduce the incentive to hold dollar-denominated assets, particularly if other central banks maintain comparatively restrictive policy settings. On the other hand, the dollar can remain resilient if the United States continues to outperform major economies or if global investors seek liquidity during periods of uncertainty. For the coming sessions, changes in the market's expectations for October and December Fed decisions will be particularly important. A widening gap between the expected US policy rate and rates elsewhere could restore support for the dollar, while a narrowing gap could reinforce its current weakness. The direction of oil prices and the progress of US-Iran discussions will also influence demand through their effects on inflation expectations and risk appetite. Louis Roche Analysis The dollar's decline toward 102 reflects a combination of falling Treasury yields, improving demand for long-dated US government debt and a reduction in immediate geopolitical concerns surrounding Iran. The bond auction is especially important because it suggests that investors remain willing to commit capital to US government debt despite recent market pressure. If this demand persists, lower yields could continue to weigh on the dollar, particularly while markets remain uncertain about the timing of the Federal Reserve's next move. However, the current rate expectations present a mixed picture. The market sees a strong possibility of no change in October but also assigns a substantial probability to a December increase. This suggests that investors are not simply pricing in an end to monetary tightening; instead, they are weighing the timing and pace of the next policy adjustment. Waller's comments reinforce that uncertainty. His view that additional increases may be required to return inflation to 2% supports a hawkish interpretation, while his emphasis on flexibility leaves policymakers room to pause if conditions warrant it. My assessment is that the dollar faces near-term downside pressure while Treasury yields are falling, but a sustained bearish trend requires confirmation from both bond markets and Federal Reserve expectations. If inflation proves persistent or policymakers strengthen their case for further tightening, the dollar could recover quickly. Traders and businesses should avoid relying on a single indicator. Treasury yields, Fed pricing, oil-market developments and geopolitical risk should be assessed together, particularly where currency movements affect international payments or operating margins. Coming Sessions: What to Watch Treasury yields: Further declines could reinforce dollar weakness, while a rebound may provide support. Federal Reserve communications: Comments from policymakers may clarify whether October represents a temporary pause or a change in the tightening outlook. Inflation and employment data: Incoming releases will influence expectations for the Fed's December decision. US-Iran discussions: Progress or deterioration in diplomatic relations could affect oil prices, risk sentiment and safe-haven demand. Oil-market direction: Sustained lower prices may ease inflation concerns, while renewed increases could strengthen expectations of tighter policy. Dollar index around 102: Price behaviour near this level will help indicate whether recent losses are extending or beginning to stabilise. Today Markets View The US dollar remains under pressure as falling Treasury yields and easing geopolitical concerns offset the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening. The well-received 30-year bond auction has helped support demand for government debt, while lower oil prices have reduced some immediate concerns about energy-driven inflation. The policy outlook remains divided. Markets are leaning toward an October pause but continue to assign a high probability to a December rate increase. This leaves the dollar vulnerable to shifts in economic data and central-bank messaging. For now, the balance of risks points to a cautious near-term outlook for the greenback. A continuation of falling yields could extend the decline, but persistent inflation or a renewed hawkish signal from the Fed could trigger a recovery. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Movements in the US dollar can affect international payment costs, supplier invoices, overseas revenue and profit margins. Businesses with exposure to the dollar should monitor changes in Treasury yields, Federal Reserve expectations and geopolitical conditions when reviewing their currency risk and hedging requirements. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or currency advice.

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Energies

October 9, 2026

European Gas Prices Retreat

European natural gas prices fell to €77.3/MWh, retreating from an over three-week high after President Trump said the US would not resume military strikes on Iran before November’s midterm elections, easing fears of an escalation in the conflict. However, supply risks persist as Iran stepped up tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global LNG trade, raising concerns over the safety of transits. Meanwhile, cooler weather forecasts for Northwestern Europe could lift heating demand and support gas consumption. While Europe's gas inventories have risen steadily in recent weeks, facilities are around 73% full, remaining below year-ago levels. The region’s gas network operators said the system is flexible enough to meet winter demand but warned that limited LNG supplies could push storage below 30% by winter’s end, increasing vulnerability to late-season cold snaps. Despite Friday’s pullback, prices are up more than 3% this week, marking a second weekly gain.

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Markets

October 9, 2026

Platinum Market Outlook: Falling Treasury Yields Support Recovery Above $1,650

Platinum prices have rebounded above $1,650 per ounce, recovering from a recent nine-week low as falling US Treasury yields and easing oil prices improve the outlook for precious metals. A rally in US government bonds has pushed Treasury yields lower from a 24-year peak, weakening the US dollar and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as platinum. Lower oil prices are also easing concerns about persistent energy-driven inflation and the possibility that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. Markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged this month, making Treasury yields, dollar movements and incoming inflation data important drivers for platinum. However, the recovery faces significant fundamental headwinds. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a platinum market surplus in 2026, with total demand expected to fall by 18%. Declining Chinese jewellery demand and weaker automotive consumption could limit the upside, while plans to develop a major platinum-group metals project in Zimbabwe introduce a longer-term supply consideration. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent PositionMarket ImplicationPlatinum futuresAbove $1,650/ozRecovery from recent lowsRecent price lowNine-week lowTechnical reboundUS Treasury yieldsFalling from a 24-year peakSupportive for platinumUS dollarUnder pressure as yields declineBullish for dollar-priced metalsFederal ReserveRates widely expected to remain unchanged this monthFocus on policy guidance2026 platinum balanceWPIC forecasts a surplusPotential upside constraintTotal platinum demandForecast to fall 18%Bearish fundamental riskChinese jewellery demandForecast to decline 32%Significant demand headwindAutomotive demandForecast to decline 4%Additional consumption pressureZimbabwe projectDevelopment planned in Darwendale next yearLonger-term supply consideration Price Action and Market Structure Platinum has moved back above $1,650 per ounce after reaching a nine-week low, suggesting that lower bond yields and a weaker dollar are encouraging buyers to return to the market. The recovery reflects a more favourable macroeconomic environment for non-yielding precious metals. When Treasury yields decline, the relative opportunity cost of holding platinum generally falls, potentially improving investor demand. However, the rebound is occurring against a less supportive demand outlook. The projected 2026 surplus means that macroeconomic support may not be sufficient to sustain a prolonged rally unless investment demand strengthens or physical market conditions improve. The next stage will depend on whether platinum can maintain its recovery while the market assesses the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook and the scale of the expected supply surplus. US Treasury Yields and the Dollar Falling US Treasury yields are providing an important source of support for platinum. A rally in government bonds has pushed yields lower from a 24-year peak, reducing the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets. This can encourage investors to reconsider their exposure to precious metals, which do not generate interest income. The accompanying weakness in the US dollar offers another potential tailwind. Because platinum is priced internationally in dollars, a weaker dollar can make the metal less expensive for buyers using other currencies. The relationship is not automatic, however. If yields fall because markets anticipate a sharper economic slowdown, concerns about industrial demand could offset some of the benefit from a weaker dollar. Federal Reserve Outlook Markets now largely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this month. That expectation places greater emphasis on the Fed's policy guidance, inflation outlook and assessment of economic activity. A stable policy rate could support platinum if Treasury yields continue to decline and the dollar remains under pressure. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation data or hawkish guidance could push yields higher again, increasing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. For platinum, the direction of Treasury yields and the dollar may therefore be more important in the near term than the rate decision alone. Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations Easing oil prices are also helping to improve the macroeconomic backdrop for platinum. Lower energy prices can reduce inflationary pressure and ease concerns that central banks will need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. This could support precious metals by reducing expectations for persistently high interest rates. However, oil prices can also reflect changes in global growth expectations. If energy prices decline because economic activity is weakening, the resulting concerns about industrial consumption could weigh on platinum. The market will therefore need to distinguish between disinflationary support and signs of weakening industrial demand. Platinum Supply and the 2026 Surplus The WPIC's forecast of a platinum market surplus in 2026 remains a key constraint on the price outlook. A surplus indicates that projected supply exceeds demand, potentially allowing inventories to build unless metal is absorbed through investment demand or other market channels. The forecast is particularly important because platinum's price recovery is being driven largely by improving financial-market conditions rather than a clear acceleration in industrial consumption. If the projected surplus materialises, it could limit the sustainability of rallies and make prices more sensitive to changes in investor positioning. Chinese Jewellery Demand Chinese jewellery demand is a major concern in the current outlook. The WPIC expects Chinese jewellery demand to decline by 32%, contributing to the broader forecast contraction in total platinum demand. Weak jewellery consumption would reduce an important source of physical buying and could leave the market more dependent on automotive applications, industrial demand and investment flows. A stronger-than-expected recovery in Chinese consumer demand could improve the outlook, but continued weakness would reinforce the bearish implications of the projected surplus. Automotive Demand Automotive demand is forecast to decline by 4%, adding another headwind. Platinum is used in catalytic converters and other industrial applications, meaning vehicle production, emissions-control requirements and changes in powertrain technology can all affect consumption. A decline in automotive demand would make it more difficult for the market to absorb available supply, particularly if jewellery demand also weakens. The extent of the impact will depend on actual vehicle production, regional demand trends and the relative use of platinum in emissions-control systems. Zimbabwe's Darwendale Project A state-owned firm in Zimbabwe plans to develop a mining project at Darwendale next year, with estimated resources of 44 million ounces of platinum-group metals. Zimbabwe holds some of the world's largest platinum-group metal resources, making the project relevant to the longer-term supply outlook. However, the stated resource estimate should not be treated as immediate production. The project's eventual market impact will depend on development progress, financing, infrastructure, commissioning and the timing and scale of commercial output. For the near-term price outlook, macroeconomic conditions and the existing supply-demand balance are likely to remain more immediate drivers. Over a longer horizon, successful project development could add to expectations of future supply availability. Bullish Scenario Platinum could extend its recovery if: US Treasury yields continue declining. The US dollar weakens further. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious policy stance without signalling renewed tightening. Lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns. Investment demand strengthens as bond yields fall. Chinese jewellery demand performs better than forecast. Automotive consumption proves more resilient than expected. The projected 2026 surplus narrows. Under this scenario, a sustained move above $1,650 per ounce would strengthen the recovery and shift attention toward higher resistance levels. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would develop if financial-market support fades while the projected surplus remains intact. Potential downside catalysts include: Treasury yields rebound on stronger inflation data or hawkish Fed guidance. The US dollar strengthens. Chinese jewellery demand continues to deteriorate. Automotive demand falls more sharply than expected. The WPIC surplus forecast is confirmed or revised higher. Investor demand weakens as platinum loses its appeal relative to interest-bearing assets. In this environment, the rebound could prove temporary, leaving prices vulnerable to another test of recent lows. Price Outlook The near-term outlook for platinum is cautiously constructive, supported by falling Treasury yields and a softer US dollar. The recovery above $1,650 per ounce is an important development, but a sustained advance will require continued macroeconomic support and evidence that physical demand is not weakening as sharply as forecast. The principal fundamental challenge remains the projected 2026 surplus. An 18% decline in total demand, including a 32% drop in Chinese jewellery demand and a 4% reduction in automotive demand, could restrict upside even if investor sentiment improves. The key question is whether financial-market flows can offset weaker underlying consumption. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook is shaped by the projected 2026 surplus, while Zimbabwe's Darwendale project represents a potential longer-term development. The expected surplus could weigh on prices if it leads to higher inventories and reduces competition for available metal. The Darwendale project, with its estimated 44 million ounces of platinum-group metals, could become more significant as development progresses. Nevertheless, resources are not equivalent to annual production, and the timing of any additional supply remains uncertain. Investors should distinguish between the near-term surplus forecast and the longer-term potential for new mining capacity. Demand Outlook Demand remains the main fundamental concern. The projected decline in total demand points to weakness across key end-use markets, with Chinese jewellery consumption and automotive applications identified as important sources of pressure. Investment demand could provide an offset if falling yields and a weaker dollar attract additional interest in platinum. However, financial flows may be volatile and may not fully compensate for sustained weakness in physical consumption. The market will need stronger evidence of stabilising demand to support a more durable bullish outlook. Louis Roche Analysis Platinum is benefiting from a change in the macroeconomic environment, but the recovery remains vulnerable because the underlying demand outlook is weakening. The decline in Treasury yields is important. When bond yields retreat from elevated levels, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals falls, while a weaker dollar can improve affordability for international buyers. These factors provide a credible explanation for the rebound above $1,650 per ounce. However, the WPIC's projected 2026 surplus and 18% decline in total demand create a substantial obstacle to a sustained rally. The forecast declines in Chinese jewellery and automotive demand suggest that the physical market may struggle to absorb available metal without stronger investment buying. Zimbabwe's Darwendale project adds a longer-term supply consideration, although its estimated resource base should not be confused with near-term production. My assessment is that platinum's next move will depend on the interaction between financial-market support and physical fundamentals. Continued weakness in yields and the dollar could extend the rebound, but a durable advance will be harder to establish if demand forecasts continue to deteriorate. The $1,650-per-ounce area is the immediate reference point. Holding above it would keep the recovery intact; losing momentum as yields stabilise or the dollar strengthens would increase the risk of another pullback. Confirmation from physical demand and updated supply estimates will be important before treating the rebound as a broader trend reversal. Coming Sessions Markets will monitor: US Treasury yields and the direction of government bond prices. US dollar movements. Federal Reserve communications and the interest-rate outlook. Oil prices and inflation expectations. Updates to the WPIC's 2026 platinum balance forecast. Chinese jewellery demand. Automotive production and platinum consumption. Progress on Zimbabwe's Darwendale project. Price action around $1,650 per ounce and nearby technical levels. Today Markets View Platinum has rebounded as lower Treasury yields and easing oil prices improve the macroeconomic backdrop for precious metals. The softer dollar is also supportive, but the recovery faces a significant fundamental challenge from the projected 2026 surplus and weakening demand. The near-term bias is cautiously constructive while prices hold above $1,650 per ounce. A sustained rally will require ongoing support from financial markets and evidence that physical demand is stabilising. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Precious-metal prices can respond to changes in the US dollar, interest-rate expectations and global risk sentiment. Businesses with international commodity exposure should therefore monitor both metals and foreign-exchange markets as macroeconomic conditions evolve. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 8, 2026

Oil crashes the stock market party

Geopolitics, politics and earnings risks are colliding this morning. It’s another volatile start for markets. The oil price has surged by 3% and Brent crude is now trading above $104. This is pressuring the bond market and causing stocks to sell off. The FTSE 100 is down 0.6% but is the most resilient of the European indices for now. A psychological barrier is breached As the oil price crosses the psychological barrier of $100 this has a deep effect across financial markets. The first effect is that it drives bond yields higher. Europe is leading the bond market sell off this morning, and this is impacting European stocks. The Cac is lower by 0.98% and Italy’s FTSE MIB is down by 1.05% so far on Thursday. However, all major global indices have registered a decline in the last 24 hours, the only index that is rising is volatility. This is a stock pickers market, and there are some individual outperformers. Tesco is higher by more than 3% today as the supermarket giant gave an update on its forecast for annual profit, which is expected to be at the upper end of forecasts, at £3.15 - £3.3bn. Tesco is the top performer on the FTSE 100 today, suggesting that good earnings news will be rewarded by investors, even when volatility is elevated. All bond markets at risk of a sell off Over the past week, there has been a clear preference for Asian and US stock indices, over European indices. For example, the Eurostoxx 50 index is down more than 2%, compared to a 2% gain for the Nasdaq. However, the sell off in European bonds has slowed over the last 5 trading sessions. We do not view this as a sign that the pain in the European bond trade is over, instead, it suggests that in recent days US and UK bond yields have joined in the sell off, after last week’s period of relative outperformance. When the oil price is above $100, it is very hard for any developed bond market to perform well, especially those that are highly indebted. The risk for markets is that the conflict in the Middle East will persist, after Donald Trump suggested that attacks on Iran could resume before next month’s MidTerm elections. With the prospect of an Iran peace deal on the backburner, it is natural that risk tolerance will fall. Fed still expected to remain on hold this month Bonds are set to remain volatile as we lead up to this month’s central bank meetings. The market is still paring back expectations for an Oct rate hike, they now stand at 21%. However, will the recent weakness in payrolls and moderation in the PCE growth rate be enough to keep the Fed on hold for the long term? The answer to this question is vital for markets, especially as AI companies continue to issue debt to fuel their expansion plans. The more it costs to do this, the more important the payoff and the impact on global stock markets. Record highs for US indices in the rearview mirror US stock futures are pointing to a lower open later today. This week’s record highs in the S&P 500 and in the Nasdaq now feel like a distant memory as the market focuses on the upcoming Q3 earnings season, which will be a major test for the AI trade. A strong set of earnings is necessary to keep the US stock market show on the road, which is why some nervousness ahead of the start of reporting season is to be expected. The AI trade in numbers Tech earnings are incredibly important at this stage. To visualise how important the AI trade is to the S&P 500, and how crucial this earnings season will be, 62% of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation is linked to AI through chip makers, cloud infrastructure, cyber security and power/ energy grid suppliers. Over 30% of S&P 500 members directly supply AI companies, so if hyperscalers slow their spending, the broader index could get hit. The FX view: euro under pressure for the long term FX is also in view after the euro reached a 17 month low earlier this week. EUR/USD is steadying today just below $1.12,even though bond yields are rising. France is still on everyone’s radar, and it seems likely that bond yields will continue to rise and remain elevated as the country fails to grapple with its fiscal issues, and as the ECB seems unwilling to step in. The head of the French central bank has said that the current spike in French bond yields is not a problem for the ECB, but is instead a domestic problem for France to solve. With Presidential elections scheduled for next April, the likelihood of fiscal reform before then is low, which should kepe downward pressure on the euro and European bonds. Ahead today is a swath of central bank speakers, we shall have to see if this placates bond markets. Chart 1: Brent crude oil Source: XTB

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Markets

October 8, 2026

Chart of the Day – DE40 Falls 0.7% and Tests Key Support Amid Weak European Market Sentiment

Futures on Germany's DAX index (DE40) are down more than 0.7% today, extending losses following Wednesday's sharp sell-off, while sentiment across European equity markets remains weak. Futures are trading near 25,080 points, bringing the psychologically important 25,000-point support level into focus. Elevated oil prices, rising bond yields and France's fiscal challenges are limiting the potential for a rebound as markets prepare for the upcoming U.S. quarterly earnings season. The DAX fell 1.35% yesterday, ending a streak of three consecutive sessions of gains. The scale of the decline points to deteriorating short-term sentiment, while attempts to stabilize the German equity market have so far been unconvincing. Rising oil prices, elevated bond yields and fiscal tensions in France remain key risk factors for European equities. The combination of higher energy prices and borrowing costs could weigh on corporate margins and expectations for future earnings. Elevated expectations for technology companies' earnings and guidance are increasing market sensitivity to potential disappointments. According to Consorsbank, even minor signs of slowing AI-driven growth could increase the risk of a deeper equity market correction. Technology stocks were among the weakest performers on the German equity market yesterday. Infineon fell 5.8% to EUR 60.95, while semiconductor equipment manufacturer Suss Microtec, a constituent of the MDAX, dropped 9.3%. The sell-off was primarily driven by rising bond yields and profit-taking, with Infineon having gained approximately 65% year-to-date. News of its quantum computing partnership with ZuriQ failed to improve sentiment. Fresenius Medical Care was yesterday's worst-performing DAX constituent, losing nearly 7% following the announcement of management changes, while financial stocks also came under pressure amid rising bond yields. The automotive sector showed relative resilience, with Volkswagen benefiting from reports that Germany and France may push to ease EU regulations on combustion-engine vehicles, which also supported shares of Renault and Stellantis. DE40 Chart (D1 Timeframe) DE40 futures are down more than 0.7%, falling below the 200-session exponential moving average (EMA200, red line), signaling a significant deterioration in the underlying trend. Although the index has fallen below this moving average five times this year and recovered relatively quickly on each occasion, the current breakdown is particularly notable as it follows another move below the EMA200 in late September and early October. Holding the 25,000-point level will be crucial for the bulls, with a recovery above 25,150 points representing the next important objective. Another key resistance level is currently located around 25,800 points, where the 50-session exponential moving average (EMA50, orange line) is situated. Source: xStation5

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Softs

October 8, 2026

Palm Oil Soars as Weaker Ringgit, India Demand Buoy Sentiment

Malaysian palm oil futures surged over 3% to above MYR 4,650 per tonne, snapping recent declines as a weaker ringgit and firmer crude oil prices boosted competitiveness. Gains in rival edible oils on China’s Dalian exchange also lifted sentiment as markets reopened after Golden Week. In India, buyers secured about 150,000 tonnes in three days, with refiners turning to palm oil amid tight sunflower oil supplies ahead of November’s festive demand. However, caution prevailed before Malaysian Palm Oil Board data, with Reuters forecasting September inventories to hit a record high, surpassing the 2018 peak, as output outpaced sluggish exports. Cargo surveyors estimated shipments slipped 17.1%–28.8% mom. Meanwhile, EU imports for the 2026/27 season dropped 18% yoy to 0.71 million tonnes. In Indonesia, nearly 260,000 hectares of reclaimed land were handed to the Forestry Ministry, with more than half slated for management by Agrinas Palma Nusantara, potentially adding to long-term supply.

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Markets

October 8, 2026

Zinc Market Outlook: Supply Constraints Keep Prices Supported Above $3,800

Zinc prices have rebounded above $3,800 per tonne, recovering from a more than six-week low as persistent supply constraints continue to support the market. The latest move comes as Western smelters face pressure from high energy costs and limited access to raw materials, creating uncertainty over refined zinc production. Western refined zinc output fell 3.4% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, highlighting the challenges facing producers. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands has added to concerns that additional production capacity could be at risk. Chinese producers are helping ease some of the tightness by increasing exports. China shipped 40,668 tonnes of zinc in August, its second-highest monthly export volume in almost two decades, with approximately 80% of those shipments heading to LME warehouses in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. However, the continued backwardation in the benchmark zinc spread indicates that near-term physical supply remains relatively tight despite the increase in Chinese exports. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent PositionMarket ImplicationZincAbove $3,800/tonneRecoveringRecent lowMore than six-week lowTechnical reboundWestern refined output-3.4% y/y in H1 2026Bullish supply signalEnergy costsElevated for Western smeltersProduction pressureBudel smelterStrategic review underwayAdditional supply riskChinese August exports40,668 tonnesEases regional tightnessChinese shipments to LME warehousesAround 80%Improves exchange availabilityLME spreadBackwardationNear-term tightness remains Price Action and Market Structure Zinc has recovered above $3,800 per tonne after falling to a more than six-week low earlier in the month. The rebound indicates that underlying supply concerns remain important even after the recent correction. The market is being pulled in two directions. Rising Chinese exports are increasing the availability of refined zinc, while declining Western production is reducing supply from traditional producing regions. The continued backwardation of the benchmark spread is particularly important because it indicates that nearby physical metal remains more valuable than future supply. This suggests that the market has not yet moved into a comfortable surplus. Western Smelter Pressure The biggest fundamental concern remains the performance of Western smelters. Refined zinc production across Western markets declined 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with high energy costs and limited availability of raw materials placing pressure on operating margins. Smelters require substantial amounts of electricity, meaning elevated energy costs can make production uneconomical even when zinc prices are relatively high. This creates a potential feedback mechanism in which higher zinc prices are needed to incentivise production, while insufficient production keeps the physical market tight. Nyrstar and Budel Nyrstar's strategic review of its Budel smelter in the Netherlands has added another layer of uncertainty. The loss-making facility is being assessed at a time when Western zinc production is already under pressure. Any reduction in Budel's operating capacity would further tighten European refined zinc availability and could increase the region's dependence on imported metal. The market will therefore be watching closely for any decision regarding the future operating structure of the facility. Chinese Exports China is increasingly acting as an important source of additional refined zinc supply. August exports reached 40,668 tonnes, representing the second-highest monthly export volume in almost two decades. This increase is significant because additional Chinese metal can help compensate for reduced Western smelter output. Approximately 80% of China's August exports were directed toward LME warehouses in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. The movement of metal into exchange warehouses should improve visible inventories and reduce some of the immediate physical tightness. However, the fact that the zinc market remains in backwardation suggests that these additional shipments have not yet eliminated concerns over nearby supply. LME Market and Backwardation The benchmark zinc spread remains in backwardation, which is an important signal for the physical market. Backwardation means nearby zinc is trading at a premium to later-dated supply, generally indicating that immediate availability remains relatively constrained. This market structure provides a stronger bullish signal than price action alone. Even with Chinese exports increasing, the physical market is not yet showing the characteristics of a comfortable surplus. If backwardation persists while Western production remains constrained, zinc could remain supported. Bullish Scenario Zinc could extend its recovery if: Western smelter production continues to decline. Energy costs remain high enough to constrain output. Nyrstar reduces or restructures Budel production. Raw-material availability remains tight. LME inventories fail to build sufficiently. The benchmark spread remains firmly in backwardation. Chinese exports slow after the recent increase. Global industrial demand improves. Under this scenario, the rebound above $3,800 per tonne could develop into a broader recovery as traders price in continued physical tightness. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would develop if Chinese exports remain elevated and increasingly offset Western production losses. Further deliveries into LME warehouses could improve visible inventories and reduce the immediate scarcity premium. If Western smelters also stabilise or restart capacity, the refined zinc market could move toward better balance. A deterioration in global industrial demand would add further downside pressure by reducing consumption from construction, manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Price Outlook The near-term zinc outlook remains constructive, although the market has already shown considerable volatility. Holding above $3,800 per tonne would strengthen the recovery from the recent six-week low and keep attention focused on higher resistance levels. The most important fundamental signal remains the LME forward curve. Persistent backwardation would indicate that nearby physical supply remains tight even as Chinese exports increase. A move toward contango, combined with rising inventories, would provide a stronger indication that the market is moving into surplus. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains constrained, particularly in Western markets. The 3.4% decline in Western refined production highlights the impact of high energy costs and limited raw-material availability. The Budel review introduces another potential source of production losses, while Chinese exports provide an increasingly important source of replacement supply. The balance between these two forces will determine whether the current physical tightness persists into the coming months. Demand Outlook Zinc demand remains closely tied to global industrial activity, particularly construction, manufacturing and infrastructure. A recovery in industrial demand would make the current supply constraints more significant and could increase competition for available refined metal. Conversely, weaker global manufacturing activity could offset the impact of production reductions by reducing consumption. Chinese industrial demand will remain particularly important given China's central role in the global zinc market and its growing influence over international refined-metal flows. Louis Roche Analysis Zinc's rebound above $3,800 per tonne is important because the market is demonstrating that supply concerns remain powerful even after the recent correction. The fundamental picture is increasingly divided between Western production weakness and rising Chinese exports. Western smelters are struggling with high energy costs and tight raw-material availability, while the decline in refined production demonstrates that these pressures are already affecting actual output. The Budel situation is therefore significant. If Nyrstar reduces production capacity, Europe could become increasingly dependent on imported refined zinc at a time when nearby supply is already relatively constrained. China is providing a partial solution. The August export figure of 40,668 tonnes is substantial, and the fact that around 80% was directed toward LME warehouses means visible exchange supply is improving. However, the continued backwardation tells us that the market does not yet consider the additional Chinese metal sufficient to completely resolve the near-term supply problem. For now, $3,800 per tonne is an important reference level. Sustained trade above it would keep the recovery intact, particularly if Western smelter problems persist. A significant increase in LME inventories and a move away from backwardation would be the clearest signs that the supply squeeze is beginning to ease. Coming Sessions Markets will monitor: LME zinc inventories and warehouse inflows. The forward curve and persistence of backwardation. Developments surrounding Nyrstar's Budel smelter. Western smelter production and energy costs. Chinese zinc export volumes. The destination of Chinese refined-zinc shipments. Global manufacturing and construction activity. Zinc price action around the $3,800-per-tonne level. Today Markets View Zinc remains supported by a relatively tight physical market despite increasing Chinese exports. Western refined production is under pressure, while the potential restructuring of the Budel smelter introduces another supply risk. Chinese exports are helping replenish exchange inventories, but persistent backwardation indicates that nearby metal remains relatively scarce. The immediate bias therefore remains constructive above $3,800 per tonne, with the next directional signal likely to come from the combination of LME inventory movements and the shape of the forward curve. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Industrial metals such as zinc can influence currencies through trade balances, export revenues, manufacturing activity and changing inflation expectations. Businesses with exposure to international commodity markets should therefore monitor both metals and foreign-exchange conditions as supply and demand dynamics evolve. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 8, 2026

Copper Market Outlook: Chinese Demand and Chilean Supply Risks Support Prices

Copper prices are approaching $6.70 per pound, extending their weekly advance as Chinese traders return from a week-long holiday with a more optimistic outlook for industrial demand. Improving sentiment in China is providing fresh support to the copper market, while strong earnings from South Korean technology giant Samsung Electronics are reinforcing expectations for continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The supply outlook is also becoming more uncertain. Industrial action at Chile's Centinela copper project could begin affecting production within roughly two weeks, while Chile has already reported that national copper output fell in August to its lowest level since February 2011. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs on refined copper remains an important market factor. Earlier tariff threats encouraged traders to redirect shipments toward US warehouses, contributing to the sharp increase in copper prices and tightening availability in other markets. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent PositionMarket ImplicationCopperApproaching $6.70/lbBullish momentumChinaMarkets reopening after holidayPositive demand signalAI infrastructureStrong technology earningsSupportive for copper demandChilean productionAugust output at lowest since Feb. 2011Bullish supply riskCentinela mineTwo unions taking industrial actionPotential production disruptionUS refined-copper tariffsDecision still pendingMajor source of uncertaintyUS inventoriesShipments redirected toward American warehousesTightens availability elsewhere Price Action and Market Structure Copper is extending its weekly gains as the return of Chinese traders provides additional buying interest. The approach toward $6.70 per pound reflects a combination of improving demand expectations and increasing supply uncertainty. Copper's role in electrification, data centres, power infrastructure and industrial manufacturing is also keeping longer-term demand expectations constructive. The market is now approaching an important area where further confirmation from Chinese physical demand and global industrial activity could determine whether the latest rally develops into a sustained move. Chinese Market Reopening The reopening of Chinese markets after a week-long holiday is providing an important catalyst for copper. China remains central to the global copper market, meaning trading activity and physical demand expectations from Chinese buyers can have a significant influence on prices. The initial return of traders with improved sentiment suggests that concerns over industrial demand may be easing. The market will now look for evidence of stronger purchasing activity and improved downstream consumption. If Chinese demand continues to strengthen, it could provide the demand-side support required to absorb tightening supplies elsewhere. AI Infrastructure and Technology Demand Strong earnings from Samsung Electronics are reinforcing expectations for continued investment in global AI infrastructure. The expansion of AI-related infrastructure requires significant quantities of copper for power distribution, electrical systems, data centres, cooling infrastructure and related grid investment. The stronger the investment cycle becomes, the more important copper becomes as a strategic industrial input. This provides a structural demand argument that extends beyond traditional construction and manufacturing activity. Continued investment in data centres and power infrastructure could therefore help support copper consumption even if some traditional industrial sectors remain uneven. Chilean Supply Risks The supply outlook is becoming increasingly important. Two unions at Chile's Antofagasta Centinela project have begun industrial action and are warning that the disruption could begin affecting output within approximately two weeks. The potential interruption comes at an important time because Chile has already reported a significant decline in national copper production. August production fell to its lowest level since February 2011, highlighting the challenges facing one of the world's most important copper-producing countries. If the Centinela dispute escalates and production is affected, the market could face another reduction in available mine supply. Global Copper Supply Chile remains critical to the global copper market, meaning production disruptions can have an outsized effect on prices. The latest decline in Chilean output suggests that the market cannot rely solely on higher production from major mining regions to satisfy growing demand. Any prolonged labour disruption at Centinela would add another layer of uncertainty to an already tight supply environment. The market will therefore be watching closely for developments around the negotiations and whether industrial action begins to affect actual production volumes. US Refined-Copper Tariff Risk The Trump administration has yet to decide whether to impose potential tariffs on refined copper. This remains one of the most important policy uncertainties for the market. Earlier threats of US duties encouraged traders to redirect copper shipments toward American warehouses ahead of any potential tariff implementation. That movement has contributed to the sharp increase in US copper availability while potentially reducing readily available supply elsewhere. If tariffs are introduced, the resulting trade-flow distortions could continue to create significant differences between regional copper markets. If the tariff threat is reduced or abandoned, some of the inventory premium built into US prices could unwind. Bullish Scenario Copper could extend its rally if: Chinese demand strengthens following the market reopening. Chinese manufacturing and construction activity improves. AI infrastructure investment continues to accelerate. Data-centre and electricity-grid investment increases copper consumption. The Centinela labour dispute results in actual production losses. Chilean output remains weak. US tariff uncertainty continues encouraging inventory accumulation. Global inventories tighten outside the United States. Under this scenario, the market could sustain prices above $6.70 per pound and begin targeting higher levels as traders increase expectations for a tightening physical balance. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would develop if Chinese demand fails to improve after the holiday period. A weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial recovery could reduce physical copper consumption and undermine the latest rally. Copper could also face pressure if the Centinela dispute is resolved without meaningful production losses, while Chilean output begins to recover. A decision by Washington not to impose refined-copper tariffs could also reduce the incentive to redirect shipments into US warehouses, potentially easing regional supply distortions. Price Outlook The short-term copper outlook remains constructive, with prices approaching $6.70 per pound. A sustained break above this level would reinforce the current bullish momentum and shift attention toward higher resistance areas. The key question is whether improving Chinese demand can combine with tighter mine supply to create a sustained physical deficit. The market is also likely to remain sensitive to US tariff announcements. Any policy decision capable of changing global copper trade flows could produce substantial volatility. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming more fragile. Chile's declining production and the potential disruption at Centinela create near-term downside risks to global mine supply. The fact that August Chilean production was the weakest since February 2011 adds significance to the latest labour dispute. If Centinela output is reduced while other major producers remain constrained, the market could become increasingly dependent on existing inventories. US inventory accumulation provides some protection for American consumers but does not necessarily resolve supply tightness elsewhere. Demand Outlook Demand expectations are improving as Chinese markets reopen and global AI infrastructure investment remains strong. Copper consumption is increasingly connected to several structural growth areas, including: Data centres Artificial intelligence infrastructure Electricity grids Renewable energy Electric vehicles Industrial electrification Power transmission and distribution China remains the key near-term demand variable. If Chinese buyers return with stronger physical demand, the combination of improving consumption and constrained mine supply could provide a powerful foundation for prices. Louis Roche Analysis Copper is increasingly being supported by two separate themes: stronger structural demand and growing supply uncertainty. The reopening of Chinese markets is important because China remains a dominant force in global copper consumption. The immediate question is whether the improved sentiment translates into stronger physical buying rather than simply stronger futures-market activity. The AI infrastructure story provides a second layer of support. Strong technology earnings reinforce the expectation that investment in data centres, power systems and associated infrastructure will remain elevated. Copper is central to this investment cycle because of its role in electrical distribution and power infrastructure. On the supply side, Chile is becoming a particularly important risk factor. Production falling to its lowest level since 2011 is a warning sign, while the Centinela labour dispute creates the possibility of additional output losses. The US tariff question adds another layer of complexity. Earlier tariff threats encouraged copper to flow toward American warehouses, effectively changing the geographic distribution of available inventories. A final tariff decision could therefore create significant changes in regional pricing and trade flows. For now, $6.70 per pound is the key area to watch. A sustained move above this level would strengthen the bullish structure, particularly if Chinese physical demand improves and Chilean supply disruptions become more severe. Coming Sessions Markets will monitor: Chinese copper demand following the market reopening. Physical buying activity from Chinese manufacturers and fabricators. Developments at the Centinela copper project. The impact of industrial action on Chilean production. Further Chilean monthly production data. US policy decisions regarding refined-copper tariffs. US and global copper inventory movements. AI infrastructure and data-centre investment trends. Price action around the $6.70 per pound level. Today Markets View Copper remains fundamentally supported by improving demand expectations and increasing supply risks. The return of Chinese traders provides a fresh demand catalyst, while strong technology-sector earnings reinforce the longer-term AI infrastructure story. At the same time, weak Chilean production and the potential Centinela disruption are tightening the supply outlook. The unresolved US tariff question could further distort global trade flows and regional inventories. The immediate bias therefore remains bullish, but confirmation will come from stronger Chinese physical demand and evidence that Chilean supply disruptions are beginning to affect production. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Copper movements can have important implications for currencies through changes in trade balances, commodity revenues, industrial activity and inflation expectations. Businesses exposed to international commodity markets should therefore monitor both copper and foreign-exchange conditions as global demand and supply conditions evolve. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 8, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $60.50 despite soaring bond yields

Silver may face headwinds as US Treasury yields hover near multi-decade highs. Rising crude oil prices stoke inflation fears and solidify expectations for sustained high interest rates. Fed minutes signal potential year-end rate hike, dampening investor demand for precious metals. Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after two days of losses, trading around $60.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, non-yielding Silver may face mounting headwinds as US Treasury bond yields hover near their highest levels since 2002, dampening investor demand for precious metals. Meanwhile, elevated energy prices are stoking broader inflation worries. Oil advanced following reports that the Trump administration directed the Pentagon to prepare strike options against Iran ahead of the midterm elections, while shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain heightened despite Middle East crude flows recovering to prewar levels. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations continue to anchor broader market sentiment. Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting showed unanimous support among all 19 policymakers for their September rate increase, with a clear majority agreeing that an additional hike before year-end would likely be appropriate. While investors widely expect the central bank to keep interest rates on hold at its October policy meeting, CME's FedWatch tool indicates traders are still pricing in roughly a 78% probability of another rate hike in December. CTAs trim precious metals exposure as liquidation extends According to TD Securities, trend-following commodity trading advisors are participating in the ongoing precious metals liquidation, with the bank noting that “in the immediate term, however, CTAs are modest sellers of gold and silver, and heavy sellers of platinum on the day.” This positioning underscores a cautious stance across the complex, even as broader macro drivers such as firm real rates and Dollar resilience continue to shape investor interest in gold and silver as hedges against geopolitical and fiscal risks. Schmid flags AI-driven inflation, keeps Fed firmly hawkish Fed’s Schmid delivers a notably hawkish tone, with an 8/10 FXS Speechtracker score modestly above the 7.5/10 historical average, underscoring that the labor force “remains in a good place” while inflation is “frustrating” and must be fixed. The emphasis that AI is now one of the largest drivers of inflation, coupled with the warning that the Fed’s credibility is at stake and that “the Fed still has work to do on the short rate despite higher long-term yields,” reinforces a bias toward keeping policy tight and potentially extending restrictive short-rate settings. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rises by 0.34 points to 137.91, cementing the Fed’s stance deep in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark. This incremental uptick, aligned with the stronger-than-baseline speech score, signals that markets should continue to price in a firm Fed reaction function to persistent inflation pressures, including those linked to AI-driven cost dynamics.

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Energies

October 8, 2026

WTI posts modest gains above $88.50 on unexpected EIA draw, Middle East conflicts in focus

WTI price trades with mild gains near $88.55 in Thursday’s early Asian session. Crude oil inventories fell by 3.186 million barrels in the week ended October 2, EIA said. The Saudi-led coalition said it retaliated against Houthis. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $88.55 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. WTI posts modest gains as US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week. Traders will focus on fresh Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and continuing oil flows out of the Middle East. US crude oil inventories showed a surprise draw last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending October 2 fell by 3.186 million barrels, compared to an increase of 922,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a rise of 1.9 million barrels. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to accelerate a release of strategic oil stocks in an effort to address surging fuel prices. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the WTI price. The IEA has deployed about 325 million barrels of oil under the March emergency action plan to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war. Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost the black gold in the near term. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen launched fresh strikes on Saudi Arabia. Saudi-led coalition said that it retaliated against the Houthis, adding that the attacks "will not go unpunished.” The coalition said on Wednesday that it had attacked more than 80 Houthi military sites across the governorates of Saada, Hodeidah, Jawf, and Marib. CTA flows in WTI crude track systematic response across tapes According to TD Securities, trend-following commodity trading advisors remain net long WTI Crude, with current exposure described as “23.0%” of maximum historical size and an upside trigger level flagged at “$97.70.” The bank’s “CTA Positioning Estimate (rhs) WTI Crude Prices” framework maps how systematic positioning could evolve across different market regimes, distinguishing between “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, downtape,” “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, flat tape,” “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, uptape,” and “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, big uptape” scenarios through the forecast horizon. Technical Analysis: WTI holds below the 20-day SMA, with bearish momentum In the daily chart, the near-term bias of WTI US Oil turns bearish, as price has slipped back under the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average, leaving it capped beneath the recent volatility midline while still holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The lower Bollinger band reinforces a soft demand area just above the longer-term trend floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.33 drifts below the midline and hints at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band at $92.50, with a stronger barrier coming in at the upper band near $99.90, where prior buying pressure could fade again. On the downside, initial support is seen at the lower Bollinger band around $85.05, followed by the 100-day SMA at $84.15, a level that would need to hold to prevent a deeper corrective slide toward the mid-$80s.

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Energies

October 8, 2026

Crude Oil Market Outlook: US-Iran Escalation and Gulf Supply Risks Push Prices Higher

Crude oil prices are trading above $89 per barrel, recovering from the recent decline as the market reassesses the risk of a wider US-Iran confrontation. Reports that the Trump administration has instructed the Pentagon to develop potential strike options against Iran are challenging expectations that Washington would avoid a major escalation ahead of the November midterm elections. At the same time, Tropical Storm Isaias has temporarily disrupted US Gulf of Mexico production, with more than 510,000 barrels per day of crude output shut in. That represents roughly one-quarter of regional production, adding another near-term supply risk to an already volatile energy market. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern oil exports have been gradually returning toward prewar levels, but continued tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are keeping the risk of further supply disruption firmly in focus. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent PositionMarket ImplicationCrude oilAbove $89/barrelBullish momentumUS-Iran tensionsPotential US strike options being preparedStrong upside riskGulf of Mexico productionMore than 510,000 bpd shut inNear-term supply tighteningTropical Storm IsaiasDisrupting offshore productionBullish if outages persistStrait of HormuzContinued tanker attacksMajor global supply riskMiddle East exportsGradually recoveringModerates supply concernsSaudi Arabia/YemenRenewed regional attacksAdditional geopolitical premium Price Action and Market Structure Crude oil has recovered above $89 per barrel, reversing part of the recent decline as traders increase the geopolitical risk premium. The latest move suggests that the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to developments involving Iran and the wider Middle East. The possibility of direct US military action represents a significant change in the risk outlook because any escalation could threaten energy infrastructure, shipping routes or regional production. The immediate focus is now on whether oil can sustain prices above $89 and build enough momentum to challenge higher levels. US-Iran Escalation Risk The potential for US military action against Iran has become a major driver of the oil market. Reports that the Pentagon has been instructed to develop strike options indicate that Washington is considering a broader range of responses to the escalating conflict. This is particularly significant because the market had generally expected the Trump administration to avoid a major escalation ahead of the November elections. If diplomatic tensions continue to deteriorate, traders could price in a greater probability of disruptions to Iranian exports or regional energy infrastructure. Such a risk would add a substantial premium to crude prices. However, if the threat of military action fails to translate into an actual escalation, some of the geopolitical premium could eventually unwind. Gulf of Mexico Supply Disruption US Gulf of Mexico production is providing another source of near-term support. Tropical Storm Isaias has forced producers to shut in more than 510,000 barrels per day of crude output, equivalent to approximately 25% of regional production. The immediate price impact will depend on how long the production remains offline. A rapid return of offshore production would limit the effect on the broader US supply balance. However, prolonged disruption could tighten near-term physical availability and provide additional support to crude prices. The storm also introduces uncertainty for Gulf Coast refining and petroleum-product markets, particularly if infrastructure disruptions extend beyond upstream crude production. Middle East Supply and the Strait of Hormuz Middle Eastern oil exports have been gradually moving back toward prewar levels, which provides an important counterweight to the current geopolitical premium. However, continued attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz remain a major concern. The waterway is strategically critical to global energy markets, meaning even limited disruption can have an outsized impact on crude prices through higher freight costs, insurance premiums and concerns over the reliability of future deliveries. The market therefore remains highly sensitive to any reports involving commercial shipping through the region. Saudi Arabia and Yemen Iranian-backed Houthis have also attacked targets in Saudi Arabia, prompting another wave of strikes by the Riyadh-led coalition against positions in Yemen. The renewed activity increases the risk that the regional conflict could spread across additional energy-producing and energy-exporting countries. Saudi Arabia remains particularly important to global oil balances because of its production capacity and role in international energy markets. Any direct threat to Saudi production, export infrastructure or shipping routes would likely generate a much stronger crude price response than the current disruptions. Bullish Scenario Crude oil could extend its advance if several risks develop simultaneously: US-Iran tensions escalate into direct military action. Iranian oil exports or energy infrastructure become affected. Tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Saudi or other Gulf energy infrastructure comes under sustained attack. Gulf of Mexico production remains offline for an extended period. Insurance and shipping costs rise significantly. Traders increase geopolitical risk premiums across crude futures. Under this scenario, $90 per barrel could become an important psychological support level, with the market potentially targeting higher resistance as supply concerns intensify. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would develop if geopolitical tensions begin to ease and disrupted production returns quickly. A rapid recovery in Gulf of Mexico output would reduce the immediate US supply impact, while continued recovery in Middle Eastern exports would improve the global supply outlook. If US-Iran tensions remain contained and there is no meaningful disruption to Iranian exports or Strait of Hormuz shipping, traders could begin removing part of the geopolitical premium from prices. In that environment, crude could retreat back below $89 and retest lower support levels. Price Outlook The near-term crude oil outlook remains bullish but highly headline-driven. Holding above $89 per barrel would keep the market focused on the psychological $90 level. A sustained break above $90 could signal that geopolitical risk is becoming firmly embedded in prices. Conversely, failure to hold the current advance would suggest that traders remain unwilling to price in a prolonged physical supply disruption. The most important variable is no longer simply production and demand. The market is increasingly pricing the probability and potential severity of geopolitical escalation. Supply Outlook Global supply remains exposed to multiple short-term risks. US Gulf production is temporarily reduced by Tropical Storm Isaias, while Middle Eastern exports are recovering but remain vulnerable to renewed attacks. The Strait of Hormuz represents the most significant potential supply-risk event. Any sustained disruption to tanker traffic could have consequences well beyond regional markets by tightening global crude availability and increasing competition for alternative supplies. A rapid restoration of US offshore production and continued recovery in Middle Eastern exports would provide a more bearish counterbalance. Demand Outlook Oil demand remains important, but the immediate price action is being driven more heavily by supply and geopolitical developments. Higher crude prices could eventually weigh on consumption through increased fuel costs and inflationary pressure. However, in the short term, a disruption to supply can dominate demand considerations. Refinery activity, transportation demand and global economic conditions will remain important in determining whether a geopolitical rally can be sustained once the immediate supply concerns begin to fade. Louis Roche Analysis Crude oil has entered a market environment where geopolitical risk is increasingly outweighing conventional supply-and-demand considerations. The move above $89 is significant because the market is responding to two separate sources of disruption: the temporary loss of more than 510,000 barrels per day of US Gulf production and the possibility of a much larger escalation involving Iran. The US-Iran situation is the critical variable. If military action remains only a contingency, the market may eventually reduce the risk premium. But if the conflict expands to Iranian energy infrastructure, Gulf producers or commercial shipping, the current price move could develop into a much more substantial rally. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk. Continued tanker attacks do not necessarily mean that global oil supplies will be immediately lost, but they increase the probability of shipping delays, higher insurance costs and reduced willingness among carriers to operate in the region. At the same time, the recovery in Middle Eastern exports provides an important bearish counterweight. If exports continue returning toward prewar levels and US Gulf production comes back online quickly, physical supply conditions could become less restrictive. For now, $89–$90 is the key area to watch. A sustained move above $90 would strengthen the bullish technical and geopolitical case, while a failure to hold this zone would indicate that traders are still treating the current escalation risk as temporary. Coming Sessions Markets will closely monitor: US-Iran diplomatic and military developments. Any confirmation of potential US military action. Tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and Yemen-related developments. The duration of US Gulf of Mexico production shut-ins. Tropical Storm Isaias and its impact on offshore infrastructure. The pace of Middle Eastern oil-export recovery. Crude futures' ability to sustain prices above $89 and challenge $90. Today Markets View Crude oil is being supported by a combination of US-Iran escalation risk, Gulf of Mexico production losses and continued uncertainty around Middle Eastern shipping. The recovery above $89 keeps the immediate bias constructive, but the next major move will depend heavily on whether geopolitical tensions translate into actual physical supply disruption. A sustained break above $90 would signal increasing confidence among traders that the geopolitical risk premium needs to remain elevated. Conversely, easing tensions and a rapid return of disrupted production could trigger a correction. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Higher crude prices can influence currencies through inflation, trade balances, energy-import costs and changing expectations for central-bank policy. Businesses with significant energy exposure should therefore monitor both crude oil and foreign-exchange markets as geopolitical conditions evolve. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 8, 2026

European Natural Gas Market Outlook: Hormuz Risks and Cooler Weather Support Prices

European natural gas prices are moving above €80/MWh, reaching their highest level in more than three weeks as renewed shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz increase concerns over global energy supply. Continued attacks on commercial and energy vessels are raising the risk of disruptions to fuel deliveries, while the possibility of further military escalation is adding another layer of uncertainty to the European gas market. At the same time, forecasts for cooler weather across Northwestern Europe are increasing expectations for heating demand as the region moves deeper into the winter season. Although European storage facilities are around 73% full, inventories remain below last year's levels, leaving the market more exposed to prolonged supply disruptions or a sudden increase in consumption. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent PositionMarket ImplicationEuropean natural gasAbove €80/MWhBullishPrice levelMore than three-week highPositive momentumStrait of HormuzContinued tanker attacksSupply-risk premiumEuropean storageAround 73% fullProvides a buffer but remains vulnerableWeatherCooler conditions expected in Northwestern EuropeHigher heating demandGeopolitical riskPotential escalation involving IranBullish volatility risk Price Action and Market Structure The move above €80/MWh signals a renewed risk premium in European natural gas. Prices are responding not only to immediate supply concerns but also to the possibility that disruptions around one of the world's most important energy shipping routes could persist. The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly important because prolonged disruption could affect the movement of energy products and increase competition for alternative supplies. Even without a direct interruption to European pipeline gas, higher global shipping and energy-market risks can increase the cost of securing replacement supplies. The next stage for prices will depend heavily on whether the geopolitical risk premium continues to build or begins to fade. Strait of Hormuz and Supply Risk Continued attacks on commercial and energy vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz are keeping the European gas market on alert. Iran has sharply increased attacks on vessels using the waterway, increasing uncertainty around the reliability of energy transportation. Any sustained disruption could tighten global energy balances and increase competition among importers for available LNG cargoes. Reports that Washington has asked the Pentagon to prepare options for potential strikes on Iran before the November midterm elections are also contributing to concerns about a broader escalation. For European gas markets, the key issue is that geopolitical developments could rapidly change the availability and cost of LNG supplies. European Storage European gas storage is currently around 73% full, providing an important buffer as the region approaches the winter heating season. However, storage remains below the level recorded at the same point last year. That leaves less protection against an extended period of cold weather, supply interruptions or stronger-than-expected demand. Storage injections therefore remain an important bearish counterweight to the current geopolitical risk premium. If inventories continue to build at a healthy pace, some of the immediate supply concerns could ease. Conversely, slower injections combined with colder weather would increase the market's sensitivity to further disruptions. Weather and Heating Demand Weather forecasts are becoming increasingly supportive for European natural gas prices, particularly across Northwestern Europe. Cooler conditions would increase heating requirements and could accelerate withdrawals from storage once the winter demand season becomes established. The combination of lower temperatures and inventories that remain below last year's levels creates a potentially more sensitive demand environment. If colder weather arrives while geopolitical tensions remain elevated, European gas prices could experience additional upside pressure. Geopolitical Risk The market is increasingly pricing the possibility that the conflict involving Iran could widen. Any direct military escalation involving Iranian energy infrastructure, shipping routes or regional energy facilities could produce a sharp increase in volatility across natural gas, crude oil and LNG markets. The opposite scenario would be a gradual reduction in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. In that case, the geopolitical premium could unwind, particularly if European storage continues to rise and temperatures remain moderate. Bullish Scenario European natural gas prices could extend their advance if several supportive factors occur simultaneously: Continued attacks disrupt commercial and energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Military tensions involving Iran escalate. LNG transportation becomes more difficult or expensive. Northwestern Europe experiences colder-than-expected weather. European storage injections slow or inventories begin falling faster than expected. Competition for global LNG cargoes increases. Under this scenario, prices could remain above €80/MWh and potentially challenge higher resistance levels as traders increase the risk premium attached to winter supply. Bearish Scenario The downside scenario would develop if geopolitical tensions begin to ease while European fundamentals remain adequately supplied. A sustained increase in European storage, combined with milder weather, would reduce immediate concerns over winter availability. A reduction in shipping disruptions could also encourage traders to remove part of the geopolitical premium from prices. In that environment, the market could move back below €80/MWh as physical supply concerns diminish. Price Outlook The near-term bias for European natural gas remains constructive, with €80/MWh now an important psychological and technical reference point. A sustained move above this level would keep attention focused on the recent three-week highs and potentially open the way toward higher resistance if geopolitical risks intensify. A failure to hold above €80/MWh, particularly alongside improving storage and milder weather forecasts, would increase the risk of a correction. The balance between geopolitical risk and European storage fundamentals is therefore likely to determine the next major price direction. Supply Outlook European supply remains relatively stable from a storage perspective, but the market is vulnerable to external disruptions. The most important risk is the potential impact of Hormuz shipping problems on global LNG availability and pricing. Europe may need to compete more aggressively for flexible LNG cargoes if disruptions become prolonged. Storage at around 73% provides some protection, but the fact that inventories remain below last year's level limits the market's margin for error. Demand Outlook Demand is likely to increase as temperatures fall and the European heating season develops. Cooler weather across Northwestern Europe could accelerate consumption, particularly if temperatures remain below seasonal norms for an extended period. The combination of higher heating demand and lower-than-last-year storage levels could make European gas balances increasingly sensitive to short-term supply disruptions. Louis Roche Analysis The European natural gas market is entering a more sensitive phase because geopolitical risk, weather and storage are beginning to interact rather than operating independently. The most important development is the renewed risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Even if European gas supplies are not directly interrupted, disruption to global energy shipping can increase LNG competition and raise replacement costs. That creates a risk premium which can remain embedded in European gas prices as long as uncertainty persists. At the same time, storage at around 73% is not an immediate shortage signal, but it does not provide the same cushion as last year. If cooler weather increases heating demand while geopolitical tensions remain elevated, the market could tighten quickly. For now, the €80/MWh area is an important reference point. Holding above it would suggest that the geopolitical and weather risk premium is becoming increasingly established. A retreat below it, combined with continued storage gains and easing tensions, would indicate that the market is beginning to unwind that premium. The key risk for the coming sessions is therefore not simply European consumption, but whether global energy transportation risks become sufficiently severe to compete with Europe's available storage buffer. Coming Sessions Markets will monitor: Developments involving the Strait of Hormuz and commercial shipping. Any further escalation involving Iran and the United States. European gas storage injections and inventory levels. Updated weather forecasts for Northwestern Europe. LNG availability and competition for cargoes. European heating demand as temperatures decline. Price action around the €80/MWh level. Today Markets View European natural gas has entered a more volatile environment, with geopolitical tensions providing upside risk while storage remains an important fundamental buffer. Cooler weather forecasts strengthen the demand outlook, but sustained storage injections could limit the severity of any supply-driven rally. The market remains particularly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged disruption could push prices materially higher, while easing tensions and improving European inventories would create room for a correction. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Energy-market volatility can also influence currencies through changes in import costs, inflation expectations, trade balances and central-bank policy expectations. Businesses exposed to European energy prices should therefore continue monitoring both natural gas and foreign-exchange conditions as geopolitical risks evolve. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 8, 2026

US Natural Gas Market Outlook: Prices Climb as Production Falls and Gulf Storm Risk Builds

US natural gas prices are extending their advance as lower domestic production, potential Gulf of Mexico disruptions and expectations for a smaller weekly storage build provide support. Prices have now risen for a fifth consecutive session, reaching a two-week high as traders assess the balance between tightening near-term supply and weather-related risks to both production and demand. US natural gas futures are trading above $3.27/MMBtu, up more than 2%, with the market increasingly focused on production trends, Tropical Storm Isaias and LNG feedgas demand. The latest rally comes as Lower 48 production moves below the record levels seen during August and September, while potential storm disruption adds another layer of uncertainty to Gulf Coast supply. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent OutlookUS Natural GasAbove $3.27/MMBtuPrice TrendFifth consecutive session higherRecent HighTwo-week highOctober Lower 48 Production111.5 Bcf/dAugust ProductionRecord 113.3 Bcf/dSeptember ProductionRecord 113.3 Bcf/dTropical Storm IsaiasPotential Gulf Coast hurricane impactLNG FeedgasRising as Freeport LNG increases intakeStorageSmaller-than-usual build expected Price Action and Market Structure Natural gas prices are gaining momentum after breaking into a fifth consecutive session of advances. The move toward $3.27/MMBtu reflects a combination of lower production and concerns that tropical weather could disrupt Gulf Coast infrastructure. The market is also receiving support from expectations for a smaller-than-normal storage injection. However, the rally remains sensitive to the direction of LNG demand. Storms can reduce supply by disrupting offshore production, but they can also reduce demand if LNG export facilities are forced to shut down or widespread power outages reduce electricity consumption. This creates a two-sided weather risk rather than a straightforward bullish signal. US Production Moves Below Record Levels The immediate fundamental support is coming from lower Lower 48 production. Output has averaged approximately 111.5 Bcf/d during October, below the record 113.3 Bcf/d recorded during both August and September. The decline is partly associated with recent force majeure events and pipeline disruptions affecting Kentucky, Texas and West Virginia. While production remains historically high, the retreat from record levels is significant for a market that has been accustomed to exceptionally strong supply. If production remains below the August-September highs, the balance could tighten further, particularly if LNG demand continues increasing. Gulf Coast Storm Risk Tropical Storm Isaias is becoming a key short-term market variable. The storm is expected to reach the Gulf Coast as a hurricane, creating the possibility of disruption to offshore natural gas production and other energy infrastructure. A reduction in Gulf production could provide an immediate bullish catalyst for natural gas futures. However, the impact is not necessarily one-directional. Storm-related shutdowns at LNG export terminals could reduce feedgas demand. Power outages can also reduce gas consumption from electricity generators. The ultimate price impact will therefore depend on whether the storm disrupts supply more significantly than demand. LNG Demand Provides Support LNG feedgas flows are increasing, providing an important source of demand support. Freeport LNG is increasing its gas intake following the return of a liquefaction train from maintenance. Higher LNG feedgas demand removes additional natural gas from the domestic market and strengthens the demand side of the balance. The return of liquefaction capacity is particularly important because US LNG exports have become an increasingly significant component of domestic natural gas demand. If Freeport and other LNG facilities maintain high utilization rates, domestic supply could remain tighter than headline production figures suggest. Storage Expectations Natural gas prices are also benefiting from expectations for a smaller-than-usual weekly storage build. Storage injections are closely watched at this point in the season because they provide an indication of how quickly the market is rebuilding inventories ahead of the winter heating period. A smaller injection would suggest that production and demand are moving the balance toward tighter conditions. If upcoming storage data confirms a smaller build, the market could receive another bullish catalyst. Conversely, a larger-than-expected injection would weaken the recent rally and reinforce concerns about abundant domestic supply. Bullish Scenario Natural gas prices could extend their advance if: Lower 48 production remains below the August and September records. Gulf storms disrupt offshore production. Pipeline disruptions persist or spread. Freeport LNG maintains higher feedgas intake. Other LNG facilities operate at strong utilization rates. Weekly storage injections remain below seasonal expectations. Early winter demand expectations increase. Storm-related supply losses exceed LNG and power-demand disruptions. A sustained combination of lower production and strong LNG demand would create a stronger case for prices to move above the recent two-week high. Bearish Scenario The main downside risks include: Production quickly returns toward 113 Bcf/d. Gulf Coast storms disrupt LNG export facilities. LNG feedgas demand falls because of terminal shutdowns. Power outages reduce electricity-related gas consumption. Storage builds exceed expectations. Pipeline disruptions are resolved. Weather remains mild and reduces heating demand. Domestic supply remains comfortably above consumption. The key bearish argument is that US production remains historically strong even after the recent decline. Natural Gas Price Outlook The short-term bias has turned constructive, with five consecutive sessions of gains and prices reaching a two-week high. The next test will be whether the market can maintain momentum above the $3.27/MMBtu area. Storm developments and storage data are likely to determine the next directional move. A smaller storage build combined with continued production weakness would strengthen the bullish case. However, the market needs to distinguish between genuine supply tightening and temporary weather-related disruption. Supply Outlook The supply picture has tightened modestly as October production averages 111.5 Bcf/d, below the record 113.3 Bcf/d levels seen during August and September. The recent force majeure events and pipeline disruptions are contributing to the decline. The Gulf Coast weather situation could create an additional temporary supply shock. The key question is whether production remains below record levels after the disruptions are resolved. Demand Outlook Demand is being supported by rising LNG feedgas flows, particularly as Freeport LNG increases intake following maintenance. This is an important bullish factor because stronger LNG exports can absorb a larger share of domestic production. However, tropical weather creates uncertainty. LNG facility shutdowns could temporarily reduce demand, while power outages could also lower electricity-sector gas consumption. The demand outlook is therefore positive but highly dependent on LNG infrastructure remaining operational. Louis Roche Analysis Natural gas is beginning to develop a more constructive short-term setup. The important change is that production has moved below the record levels seen during August and September at the same time that LNG feedgas demand is increasing. That combination is more significant than either factor individually. The storm threat adds another layer of volatility. If Tropical Storm Isaias disrupts Gulf production while LNG facilities continue operating, the impact could be strongly bullish. But if the storm forces LNG terminals to shut down, the demand loss could offset some or all of the supply disruption. For me, the next major signal is therefore the relationship between production, LNG feedgas and storage. If production remains near 111.5 Bcf/d, LNG demand stays elevated and storage injections remain below normal, the market has a credible fundamental basis for moving higher. My short-term bias is bullish but weather-sensitive. The rally is becoming more convincing, but the market needs confirmation from storage and continued production restraint before a larger sustained move can be established. Coming Sessions Natural gas traders will remain focused on: Tropical Storm Isaias — particularly its impact on Gulf production and infrastructure. Lower 48 production — whether output remains below 113 Bcf/d. Weekly storage data — confirmation of the expected smaller build. Freeport LNG feedgas flows — continued increases would support demand. Other LNG facilities — operating rates will determine whether storm disruption reduces demand. Pipeline disruptions — normalization could allow production to recover. Power demand — outages and weather conditions could materially change gas consumption. Winter weather forecasts — increasingly important as the market moves toward the heating season. Today Markets View US natural gas has shifted into a constructive short-term trend, supported by lower production, stronger LNG feedgas demand and expectations for a smaller storage build. The principal risk is that tropical weather disrupts LNG demand as much as or more than it disrupts supply. Today Markets maintains a cautiously bullish near-term view, with the next major directional signal likely to come from the interaction between Gulf weather disruption, production levels, LNG demand and storage. Currency Hedger View Natural gas is priced in US dollars, making broader dollar movements an important secondary factor for international commodity markets. For global energy companies, LNG businesses and other market participants with cross-border revenues or costs, changes in exchange rates can also influence the effective value of commodity revenues and operating expenses. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 8, 2026

Coffee Market Outlook: Prices Slide as Brazil and Vietnam Supplies Increase

Coffee prices are under renewed pressure as expanding supplies from Brazil and Vietnam outweigh weather-related concerns and extremely low arabica inventories. The market is also dealing with a significant divergence between the two major coffee varieties, with strong Brazilian exports weighing on arabica while elevated Vietnamese supply and rising robusta inventories pressure robusta futures. December ICE arabica coffee is down 11.75 points, or 3.86%, while November ICE robusta coffee is down 105 points, or 2.92%. The market initially moved higher, with arabica reaching a 3.5-week high and robusta a 6-week high, but selling accelerated as traders focused on Brazil's latest export data and expectations for abundant global supplies. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent OutlookDecember Arabica Coffee-11.75 points, -3.86%November Robusta Coffee-105 points, -2.92%Brazil September Coffee Exports236,000 MT, +20%+ y/yBrazil August Coffee Exports4.155 million bags, +31% y/yBrazil 2026 Coffee Crop67.6 million bagsBrazil 2026 Arabica Crop48.21 million bags, +34.8% y/yBrazil 2026 Robusta Crop19.39 million bags, -6.6% y/yVietnam September Exports124,000 MT, +53% y/yVietnam Jan-Sep Exports1.45 MMT, +16.2% y/yVietnam 2025/26 Production1.76 MMT, +6% y/yICE Arabica Stocks260,654 bagsICE Robusta Stocks5,398 lotsICO 2025/26 Global Production183.6 million bagsICO 2025/26 Global Balance3 million bag surplusUSDA 2026/27 Global Production189.7 million bagsUSDA 2026/27 Ending Stocks26.3 million bags Price Action and Market Structure Coffee prices have reversed sharply after initially benefiting from currency and weather-related support. The Brazilian real recently reached a 4.75-month high against the US dollar. A stronger real can discourage Brazilian producers from selling coffee for export because local-currency returns become less attractive when converted from dollar-denominated sales. That currency support helped push arabica to a 3.5-week high and robusta to a 6-week high. However, the latest Brazilian export data changed the market's focus. Brazil's September coffee exports increased by more than 20% year over year to approximately 236,000 MT, reinforcing expectations that large supplies are now reaching international markets. This has encouraged long liquidation and shifted the immediate market focus back toward physical availability. Brazil Supply Remains the Major Bearish Factor Brazil's coffee harvest is now providing substantial supply to the global market. Cecafé reported that August coffee exports increased 31% year over year to 4.155 million bags, a record for the month. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports surged 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazil's Trade Ministry also reported that August coffee exports rose 44.6% year over year to 206,618 MT, the strongest level in eight months. The latest September export increase reinforces the message that Brazil is entering the global market with substantial volumes. This additional supply is particularly important because it arrives while the market is already expecting a large Brazilian crop. Brazil Crop Outlook Brazil's Conab has raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags, from its previous forecast of 66.7 million bags. Arabica production is expected to rise a substantial 34.8% year over year to 48.21 million bags. Robusta production is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags, meaning the overall increase is being driven primarily by arabica. The USDA is even more optimistic about the longer-term Brazilian crop. Its Foreign Agricultural Service projects a record 71.9 million bags for Brazil's 2026/27 crop, representing a 14% annual increase. The divergence between current exports and forward crop expectations therefore remains a major bearish factor for coffee prices. Vietnam Supply Adds Pressure to Robusta Vietnam is providing another source of supply pressure, particularly for robusta. Vietnamese September coffee exports increased 53% year over year to 124,000 MT. Exports for January through September have reached approximately 1.45 MMT, up 16.2% year over year. Vietnam's total coffee exports in 2025 also increased 17.5% to 1.58 MMT. Production is expected to remain strong, with the 2025/26 Vietnamese crop projected at approximately 1.76 MMT, up 6% year over year and representing a four-year high. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, making these export and production figures particularly important for robusta futures. Weather Provides a Counterweight Despite the strong supply outlook, weather remains an important upside risk. El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, a period that is important for coffee-tree flowering. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the emerging El Niño pattern could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. A strong El Niño could create a more volatile weather environment across South America and Asia, including periods of excessive rainfall, drought and abnormal temperatures. If Brazilian flowering is negatively affected, the current expectations for a large 2026/27 crop could eventually be revised lower. Brazilian Rainfall Currently Supports Production The immediate weather picture is more favorable for coffee production. Somar Meteorologia reported approximately 33.3 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ending October 4, equivalent to 104% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil's primary arabica-producing region. Adequate rainfall during the flowering period can support tree development and improve the prospects for next year's crop. This is currently a bearish factor because it offsets some of the concerns about El Niño. Vietnam Growing Conditions Also Improve Vietnam is receiving favorable weather conditions as well. Recent abundant rainfall has improved soil moisture in the Central Highlands, the country's most important coffee-growing region. Improved soil moisture should support cherry development and provide a stronger foundation for the next crop. This adds to the bearish supply outlook for robusta. However, weather remains a two-sided factor. Conditions are favorable today, but the potential for a stronger El Niño means the outlook could change quickly. Global Coffee Balance The International Coffee Organization has projected a record global crop for 2025/26. Global production is estimated at 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year over year. At the same time, consumption is expected to fall 0.9% to approximately 180.6 million bags. That creates a global surplus of approximately 3 million bags, the first surplus in five years. The shift from deficit toward surplus is one of the primary reasons coffee prices have struggled to maintain earlier highs. USDA 2026/27 Outlook The USDA's longer-term forecast remains bearish. Global coffee production for 2026/27 is projected to rise 6% to a record 189.7 million bags. The increase is expected to come primarily from improved growing conditions in Brazil. Global arabica production is projected to rise approximately 12% year over year, while robusta production is expected to decline 0.7%. World ending stocks are forecast to increase by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. This combination of rising production and higher ending stocks provides a significant supply cushion. Arabica and Robusta Inventories Diverge Coffee inventories are sending different signals across the two markets. ICE arabica stocks fell to only 217,646 bags on September 15, a 27-year low. Stocks have since recovered to approximately 260,654 bags, their highest level in two months, but inventories remain historically tight. This provides an important underlying support factor for arabica prices. Robusta inventories tell a different story. ICE robusta stocks have climbed to approximately 5,398 lots, the highest level in 10 months. The divergence suggests that robusta currently faces considerably more comfortable physical supply conditions than arabica. Robusta Positioning Could Trigger Short Covering Although the fundamental picture for robusta is bearish, positioning creates a potential source of upside volatility. Commodity funds have built a substantial net-short position. The latest weekly Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their robusta short position by 2,658 contracts to 3,959 net-short positions, the highest level in 13 months. If prices begin to rise because of weather concerns or a weaker dollar, these large short positions could become vulnerable to covering. That could produce a sharp rally even if the underlying supply picture remains comfortable. Bullish Scenario Coffee prices could regain upside momentum if: El Niño delays or disrupts Brazilian rainfall. Brazilian flowering conditions deteriorate. Brazil's 2026/27 crop estimates are revised lower. ICE arabica inventories begin falling again. The Brazilian real continues strengthening. Robusta short positions trigger significant short covering. Vietnam's production or exports disappoint. Global demand improves more strongly than expected. Weather disruptions emerge across major Asian or South American growing regions. The extremely low arabica inventory base means even a modest production disruption could generate significant price volatility. Bearish Scenario Coffee prices could remain under pressure if: Brazil's export pace remains elevated. Brazil's large 2026 crop reaches international markets. Vietnam maintains strong robusta exports. Brazilian flowering conditions remain favorable. Vietnam's Central Highlands continue receiving adequate rainfall. Global production reaches USDA expectations. Ending stocks continue increasing. The US dollar strengthens. Global consumption remains below production. The combination of record or near-record production and increasing stocks would reinforce the case for lower prices. Coffee Price Outlook The short-term bias remains bearish, particularly as Brazilian and Vietnamese supplies increase. However, arabica has a stronger fundamental support base than robusta because ICE arabica inventories remain historically low. Robusta faces more immediate supply pressure because Vietnam's exports are increasing and ICE robusta stocks have reached a 10-month high. The market is therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to weather developments. A sustained break lower would strengthen the bearish trend, while any significant El Niño-related production threat could quickly reverse sentiment. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is currently expanding. Brazil's larger crop and strong export pace are adding significant volumes to the international market, while Vietnam's improving production and sharply higher exports are increasing robusta availability. The USDA's record global production forecast for 2026/27 reinforces the expectation of comfortable supply. The major risk is that El Niño disrupts the next Brazilian crop before those production expectations can be fully realized. Demand Outlook Demand is currently sufficient to absorb global production, but the market is not showing the type of demand growth that would justify a sustained supply premium. The ICO's 2025/26 figures point to consumption of approximately 180.6 million bags against production of 183.6 million. The resulting surplus indicates that production is currently running ahead of demand. For prices to regain a sustained bullish trend, demand would likely need to improve or supply expectations would need to deteriorate. Louis Roche Analysis Coffee is currently facing a classic conflict between large incoming supplies and significant weather risk. The immediate fundamentals are bearish. Brazil is exporting aggressively, Vietnam is increasing exports, global production is expected to reach record levels and inventories are rising in robusta. However, I would not ignore the opposite side of the equation. Arabica inventories remain historically low, and the possibility of a strong El Niño creates a meaningful threat to the next Brazilian crop. The Brazilian real also remains an important market variable because sustained currency strength can discourage producer selling. The robusta market is particularly interesting from a positioning perspective. Funds are holding their largest net-short position in 13 months. If weather concerns return or Brazilian supply expectations deteriorate, short covering could amplify an otherwise moderate fundamental rally. My current view is bearish in the near term, but with increasing upside weather risk into the next crop cycle. For arabica, the extremely low inventory base means that prices could react aggressively to any evidence of production damage. For robusta, the supply picture is more comfortable, but the crowded short position creates greater potential for sudden upside volatility. The key question for the market is whether the current supply expansion remains intact through the next flowering and crop-development period. Coming Sessions The coffee market will remain focused on: Brazilian export volumes — continued strong shipments would keep pressure on prices. Brazilian rainfall — current conditions are favorable, but El Niño remains a threat. Brazilian flowering — the key early indicator for the next arabica crop. Vietnamese exports — continued growth would pressure robusta. ICE arabica inventories — historically low stocks remain a major support factor. ICE robusta inventories — further increases would reinforce the bearish supply picture. Fund positioning — particularly the large robusta net-short position. Brazilian real direction — currency strength can discourage Brazilian export selling. El Niño developments — increasingly important for the 2026/27 production outlook. Global production estimates — revisions from the USDA and other crop agencies will remain market-moving. Today Markets View Coffee remains under near-term bearish pressure as Brazil and Vietnam deliver increasing volumes into the international market. However, the market is not without significant upside risks. Historically low arabica inventories, a potentially powerful El Niño and heavy speculative short positioning in robusta could all contribute to a sharp reversal if production concerns return. Today Markets maintains a cautious bearish near-term view, while expecting elevated volatility as the market transitions from the current supply surplus toward the 2026/27 crop cycle. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain particularly important for coffee because Brazil is the world's dominant arabica producer and exporter. A stronger Brazilian real can discourage producer selling by reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated export revenue when converted into local currency. Conversely, a weaker real can encourage producers to increase export sales. The US dollar also remains an important macroeconomic driver for dollar-denominated coffee futures. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 8, 2026

Cocoa Market Outlook: Rising Inventories Pressure Prices as West African Supply Risks Build

Cocoa prices remain under pressure as rising exchange inventories and signs of softer chocolate demand outweigh longer-term concerns over West African production. The market is balancing abundant near-term supplies from the Ivory Coast and Ghana against growing risks to the 2026/27 crop from weather, disease and weaker early pod development. December ICE NY cocoa is down 118 points, or 2.07%, while December ICE London cocoa #7 is down 57 points, or 1.35%. The decline follows another sharp session of selling, with rising ICE inventories reinforcing the bearish near-term supply picture. At the same time, the medium-term outlook is becoming more complicated. Early assessments of the new West African crop point to weaker production, while an increasingly strong El Niño could create additional stress on cocoa trees and yields. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent OutlookDecember NY Cocoa-118 points, -2.07%December London Cocoa #7-57 points, -1.35%ICE Cocoa Inventories3,549,555 bagsInventory Trend2.25-year highIvory Coast 2025/26 Harvest2.06 MMT, +30% y/yIvory Coast Shipments2.18 MMT, +19.8% y/yIvory Coast 2026/27 Early Crop Estimate1.8 MMTGhana 2026/27 Crop Estimate650,000 MT, -13% y/yGhana COCOBOD Risk Estimate450,000–550,000 MTStoneX 2026/27 Global Balance25,000 MT surplusTransgraph 2026/27 Global Balance80,000 MT surplusEuropean Q2 Grindings-4.6% y/yNorth American Q2 Grindings+7.7% y/yAsian Q2 Grindings+25% y/y Price Action and Market Structure Cocoa futures are under renewed selling pressure after prices recently attempted to recover on concerns over excessive rainfall and logistical disruption in the Ivory Coast. The latest decline has shifted attention back toward the physical supply picture, particularly the sharp increase in ICE inventories. Exchange stocks have climbed to 3,549,555 bags, the highest level in approximately 2.25 years. Rising certified inventories indicate that nearby physical availability is currently much more comfortable than during the tighter periods that previously supported the market. The immediate technical and fundamental picture therefore remains bearish, although the longer-term production outlook is considerably less comfortable. ICE Inventories Signal Comfortable Near-Term Supply The strongest bearish factor currently facing cocoa is the rise in ICE inventories. At more than 3.5 million bags, certified stocks are now at a 2.25-year high. The increase suggests that physical cocoa availability is improving and that the market does not currently face the type of immediate shortage that previously supported extreme prices. Higher inventories also give chocolate manufacturers and processors greater flexibility in sourcing nearby beans. Unless inventory growth begins to slow, it may remain difficult for futures to establish a sustained upside trend in the short term. Ivory Coast Production Remains Strong The Ivory Coast remains the world's largest cocoa producer and is currently providing significant supply to the global market. Cumulative shipments to ports reached approximately 2.18 MMT, up 19.8% year over year. The country's cocoa regulator also reported that approximately 2.06 MMT was harvested between June 2025 and June 2026, representing a substantial 30% increase from the previous season's 1.58 MMT. These figures demonstrate why the market is currently facing a much more comfortable supply environment. The important question is whether this strong production performance can be repeated during the new 2026/27 season. Early Ivory Coast Crop Signals Are Less Comfortable The outlook for the new crop is considerably weaker. Early field surveys indicate below-average cherelle formation, poor pod development and weaker crop potential. Initial assessments place the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop around 1.8 MMT, approximately 18% below the estimated 2.2 MMT produced during 2025/26. That would represent a significant reduction in production. Weather is also becoming an important quality concern. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine across the Ivory Coast and Ghana have increased the risk of black pod disease, potentially reducing both yields and bean quality. This creates an important contrast for the market: current supplies are abundant, but the forward crop outlook is deteriorating. Ghana Supply Outlook Ghana is facing an even more uncertain production outlook. The Ghana Cocoa Board estimates the 2026/27 crop at approximately 650,000 MT, down 13% from the 750,000 MT produced during 2025/26. COCOBOD has provided an even more cautious scenario, projecting production could fall to between 450,000 MT and 550,000 MT. The decline reflects the combined impact of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and potentially adverse El Niño weather. However, current-season production remains strong. Ghana's cocoa board reported approximately 750,000 MT harvested during the 2025/26 season, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. The contrast between current production and next-season expectations is likely to become increasingly important for futures pricing. El Niño Creates Medium-Term Upside Risk Weather remains one of the biggest potential bullish factors. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. El Niño typically produces warmer and drier conditions across parts of West Africa. For cocoa producers, this can reduce soil moisture, stress trees and negatively affect yields. If the developing weather pattern becomes more severe, the current bearish inventory situation could eventually give way to tighter physical supply. This is one of the main reasons the medium-term cocoa outlook cannot be considered outright bearish despite the current pressure. Global Cocoa Balance Private estimates point toward a relatively small global surplus for 2026/27. StoneX has reduced its projected global cocoa surplus to only 25,000 MT, compared with its earlier estimate of 149,000 MT. Transgraph Consulting has projected an 80,000 MT global surplus for 2026/27, down substantially from its estimated 415,000 MT surplus for 2025/26. The decline is primarily attributed to lower expected production. Transgraph expects global cocoa production to fall to approximately 4.87 MMT in 2026/27 from 5.11 MMT in 2025/26. A surplus of only 25,000–80,000 MT would leave the market considerably more vulnerable to production disruptions than the current inventory picture might suggest. Cocoa Demand Remains Mixed Demand signals are inconsistent across major processing regions. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year over year to 316,366 MT in Q2, significantly weaker than the expected 1.5% decline and the lowest Q2 level in six years. The European numbers reinforce concerns that high cocoa costs have damaged chocolate demand and forced manufacturers to adjust pricing and purchasing strategies. North America provided a more positive signal. Q2 cocoa grindings rose 7.7% year over year to 109,659 MT, significantly outperforming expectations for a 1% decline. Asian demand was even stronger, with Q2 cocoa grindings increasing 25% year over year to 224,646 MT, well above expectations for approximately 9% growth. The regional divergence means global demand cannot yet be characterized as uniformly weak. Chocolate Pricing and Consumer Demand The demand outlook has nevertheless become a significant bearish consideration. Cargill, the world's second-largest cocoa processor, reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa for the quarter ending August 31. The development suggests that processors are struggling to pass elevated raw-material costs through to customers. Lindt & Sprüngli has also reduced chocolate prices for a second time this year and lowered its 2026 organic sales-growth outlook to 0%–2% from 4%–6%, citing subdued consumer sentiment. These developments indicate that high cocoa prices are beginning to influence the downstream chocolate market. If manufacturers continue reducing prices while consumers remain cautious, demand could weaken further. Bullish Scenario Cocoa prices could regain upside momentum if: ICE inventories begin to decline from current highs. Early Ivory Coast crop estimates continue to deteriorate. Ghana production falls toward the lower end of COCOBOD's 450,000–550,000 MT range. El Niño produces hotter and drier conditions across West Africa. Black pod disease spreads further. Bean quality deteriorates. Global production falls toward or below current private estimates. Asian and North American grindings remain strong. The global surplus disappears and the market moves into deficit. The biggest bullish argument is that the current inventory surplus could prove temporary if the 2026/27 West African crop underperforms. Bearish Scenario The bearish case remains strongest in the near term if: ICE inventories continue rising. Ivory Coast shipments remain well above last year's levels. The current crop continues to produce strong volumes. Ghana maintains production near current-season levels. European chocolate demand remains weak. High cocoa prices continue to pressure consumer spending. Processors reduce purchases because of elevated inventories. El Niño produces less damage than currently feared. Global production remains sufficient to maintain a surplus. A sustained increase in exchange inventories would make it increasingly difficult for the market to justify a significant supply premium. Cocoa Price Outlook The short-term bias remains bearish, particularly while ICE inventories continue rising and demand indicators remain mixed. However, the medium-term picture is more balanced. Current inventories reflect the strong 2025/26 production cycle, while the market is increasingly looking ahead to a potentially weaker 2026/27 crop. The critical question is whether declining future production will arrive quickly enough to offset current inventory growth. If inventories continue climbing, cocoa could remain under pressure. If inventory growth stalls while West African crop estimates fall, the market could begin rebuilding a risk premium. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is divided between a strong current crop and a potentially weaker next season. The Ivory Coast and Ghana have delivered strong production during the current marketing cycle, supporting higher inventories and increasing nearby availability. However, early indicators for the new crop are significantly less encouraging. Lower cherelle formation, poor pod development, disease risk, aging Ghanaian farms and potential El Niño weather disruption all point toward greater production uncertainty. The next several months will therefore be critical for determining whether the current inventory surplus is temporary. Demand Outlook Demand remains the principal bearish uncertainty. European processing is weak, while Cargill's losses and Lindt's reduced sales outlook suggest that high cocoa costs are affecting the downstream market. North American and Asian grinding data provide important counterweights, particularly Asia's 25% annual increase. The global demand picture is therefore mixed rather than uniformly weak. A sustained recovery in Asian and North American processing could help absorb current inventories, while continued weakness in Europe would limit the pace of global demand growth. Louis Roche Analysis Cocoa is currently caught between strong near-term physical supply and deteriorating forward production prospects. The rise in ICE inventories to more than 3.5 million bags is the clearest bearish signal in the market. It tells us that the immediate supply situation is comfortable, while the strong Ivory Coast harvest and elevated shipments reinforce that conclusion. However, I would be cautious about extrapolating current supply conditions too far into 2027. The early indicators for the new Ivory Coast crop are considerably weaker. Ghana is also facing structural production problems, while the potential impact of a strong El Niño introduces another layer of uncertainty. The demand side is equally important. European grindings are weak and major chocolate manufacturers are clearly facing consumer resistance to higher prices. But the strength of Asian and North American processing shows that demand has not collapsed globally. My view is therefore bearish in the near term but increasingly balanced over the medium term. If ICE inventories continue to rise, prices can remain under pressure and potentially retest deeper support. But if inventory growth slows at the same time that Ivory Coast and Ghana crop estimates are revised lower, the market could quickly transition from a surplus narrative to a supply-risk narrative. The key signal I will be watching is not simply the current inventory level, but the rate at which inventories are changing relative to the outlook for the 2026/27 West African crop. Coming Sessions The cocoa market will remain focused on: ICE certified inventories — continued increases would reinforce the bearish trend. Ivory Coast shipments — strong export flows would keep nearby supply comfortable. 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop development — early pod formation and weather will be critical. Ghana production forecasts — further reductions would provide support. El Niño development — the potential for hotter and drier West African conditions remains a major risk. Black pod disease — disease progression could reduce both production and quality. Global cocoa grindings — particularly whether European demand stabilizes. Chocolate manufacturer pricing — further price reductions could indicate weakening consumer demand. ICE inventory growth — the most important immediate physical-market indicator. Today Markets View Cocoa remains under near-term bearish pressure, with rising ICE inventories and mixed demand providing the dominant market signals. However, the forward supply picture is becoming less comfortable as early 2026/27 crop assessments point toward lower production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Today Markets maintains a cautious bearish short-term view, while recognizing that the medium-term balance could shift rapidly if West African production estimates continue to fall or El Niño produces significant crop damage. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important secondary factor for cocoa because West African producers and exporters operate within global commodity markets priced in major currencies. The direction of the US dollar can influence dollar-denominated cocoa futures, while currency movements across producing and consuming economies can affect export competitiveness, producer revenues and the cost of physical cocoa. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 8, 2026

Sugar Market Outlook: Brazil Rains and Global Production Risks Tighten the Outlook

Sugar markets remain supported by tightening global supply expectations, weather risks and slowing production across several major producing regions. While the stronger US dollar is limiting upside momentum and encouraging some long liquidation, the broader fundamental outlook remains constructive as Brazil’s harvest faces disruption and forecasts point toward a potential global deficit in 2026/27. March NY world sugar #11 is trading around 0.01 points higher at 0.05%, while December London ICE white sugar #5 is down 0.80 points, or 0.14%. The market has recently reached multi-month highs, reflecting growing concern that production could fall short of consumption as adverse weather affects Brazil, India and Thailand. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent OutlookNY March Sugar #11+0.01 points, +0.05%London December White Sugar #5-0.80 points, -0.14%NY SugarRecently reached a 19-month nearest-futures highLondon SugarRecently reached a 22-month highBrazil 2026/27 Production42.2 MMT, USDA FASIndia 2026/27 Production29.5 MMT, USDA FASThailand 2026/27 Production9.5 MMT, USDA forecastISO 2026/27 Balance200,000 MT deficitThailand 2026/27 Estimate10 MMT, down 17% y/yBrazil Center-South June Production3.903 MMT, down 26.3% y/yIndia Monsoon Rainfall12.6% below normal Price Action and Market Structure Sugar prices remain elevated after the NY market reached a 19-month nearest-futures high and London white sugar reached a 22-month high. The market is now showing some consolidation rather than a clear reversal. Brazilian rainfall is slowing harvesting and disrupting cane crushing at mills in the Center-South region, limiting near-term availability and providing fundamental support. The main counterweight is the US dollar. A firmer dollar increases pressure on commodities priced in US dollars and has encouraged some long liquidation after the recent rally. This creates a market where supply fundamentals are increasingly bullish, but further upside may require confirmation that production losses are translating into tighter physical availability. Brazil Supply and Harvest Brazil remains the most important production factor for the global sugar market. Persistent rainfall across the Center-South region is slowing the harvest and interfering with cane crushing. That disruption is particularly important because Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates now put Brazil's 2026/27 sugar production at 42.2 MMT, below the previous estimate of 42.5 MMT. The earlier production weakness reported by Unica also highlights the vulnerability of the Brazilian crop. Center-South sugar production reached only 3.903 MMT in June, down 26.3% year over year. The combination of lower production expectations and harvest disruption is therefore keeping attention firmly on Brazilian supply. India Production and Weather India is another major source of concern. USDA FAS has reduced its 2026/27 India sugar production estimate to 29.5 MMT, down substantially from its previous estimate of 33.6 MMT, with adverse weather cited as a key factor. India's monsoon performance is particularly important. Cumulative rainfall for the June-September monsoon period was reported at 12.6% below normal, the weakest performance in 11 years. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, meaning a significant reduction in output can quickly alter the global supply balance. India has also allowed up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports free of taxes through October 31. The decision is significant because India is normally an exporter and has not imported substantial volumes of sugar since the 2017/18 season. The import decision therefore reinforces concerns about domestic supply availability. Thailand and Global Production Risks Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter and is also facing production risks. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production could decline 17% year over year to approximately 10 MMT. The USDA is even more conservative, forecasting Thai production at approximately 9.5 MMT, representing a 15.6% annual decline. This creates an increasingly important supply risk because weaker production in Thailand comes at the same time as Brazil and India are also facing weather-related challenges. Global Sugar Balance The global supply outlook is becoming increasingly supportive. The International Sugar Organization currently projects a 200,000 MT global deficit for 2026/27, compared with a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26. StoneX has also raised its 2026/27 global deficit forecast to 1.7 MMT, while other analysts are moving toward a more cautious supply outlook. Covrig Analytics has shifted its forecast toward a 300,000 MT deficit for 2026/27, compared with its earlier expectation of a 100,000 MT surplus. Looking further ahead, Czarnikow has projected a much larger 2.9 MMT global deficit for 2027/28, with global production expected to decline 0.7% year over year to 177 MMT. The group expects Brazilian mills to allocate more cane toward ethanol production rather than sugar if elevated crude oil prices improve ethanol economics. El Niño Risk Weather remains one of the largest upside risks for sugar. An increasingly strong El Niño pattern could reduce rainfall across Brazil, India and Thailand — the three most important regions for global sugar production. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the current El Niño could become one of the strongest such events in more than 75 years. If rainfall becomes less favorable during critical crop-development periods, production estimates could be revised lower again. The market therefore has two competing weather effects to monitor: excessive rainfall disrupting Brazil's current harvest, followed by potentially drier conditions affecting future production in major Asian and South American growing regions. 2025/26 Global Supply The previous season remains considerably better supplied. The ISO estimates 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up 3.5% year over year, with a projected surplus of approximately 1.1 MMT. That represents a significant improvement from the 3.46 MMT deficit recorded in 2024/25. However, the transition toward lower production in 2026/27 means the market is increasingly focused on whether existing inventories can comfortably bridge the supply gap. USDA Global Outlook The USDA's broader 2026/27 forecast points toward lower production but continued growth in consumption. Global sugar production is projected at approximately 184.854 MMT, down 6.5% from the record 186.056 MMT projected for 2025/26. Human consumption is expected to rise 0.4% to a record 179.991 MMT. Global ending stocks are forecast at approximately 44.410 MMT, up 2.0% year over year. The combination of falling production and rising consumption leaves less room for further production disappointments. Bullish Scenario Sugar prices could extend their advance if: Brazil's rains continue to disrupt cane harvesting and crushing. Brazilian production estimates are revised lower. India's crop outlook deteriorates further. Thailand production falls toward or below current estimates. El Niño produces significant rainfall disruption. Global consumption continues to rise. Ethanol economics encourage Brazilian mills to divert more cane away from sugar. The global 2026/27 deficit becomes larger than currently projected. A sustained tightening in physical supply would strengthen the case for sugar prices to remain above recent trading ranges. Bearish Scenario The main risks to the bullish outlook include: Brazilian weather improves enough to accelerate harvesting. Cane crushing catches up after current delays. India or Thailand production proves stronger than expected. The US dollar continues to strengthen. Commodity fund positions are reduced following the recent highs. Global economic growth weakens and reduces demand expectations. A smaller-than-expected global deficit limits the need for additional risk premium. The recent mixed performance demonstrates that strong fundamentals alone may not be enough to drive a straight-line rally. Sugar Price Outlook The medium-term bias remains constructive, but the market is increasingly stretched after reaching multi-month highs. Near-term price action is likely to remain sensitive to the US dollar and Brazilian harvest progress. A sustained break higher would require evidence that weather-related production losses are becoming significant enough to tighten physical availability. Conversely, a return of favorable Brazilian weather could trigger profit-taking and push prices back toward previous support levels. The key technical question is whether the market can maintain the premium created by the recent supply concerns. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming progressively more uncertain. Brazilian production is being revised lower, India's production estimate has been sharply reduced, and Thailand is expected to produce significantly less sugar. The additional threat from El Niño increases the possibility of further revisions. For now, the market is moving from a relatively comfortable 2025/26 supply environment toward a considerably tighter 2026/27 balance. Demand Outlook Global sugar consumption remains structurally resilient. The USDA expects human consumption to reach a record 179.991 MMT in 2026/27, representing annual growth of 0.4%. Demand is therefore not expected to collapse even as production declines. This leaves the market increasingly dependent on production, inventories and trade flows to determine whether the projected deficit develops into a meaningful physical shortage. Louis Roche Analysis The sugar market is entering a more interesting phase because the fundamental picture is shifting from surplus toward potential deficit. Brazil remains the immediate focus. Excess rainfall is already interfering with harvesting and crushing, while lower production estimates in Brazil, India and Thailand are creating a much tighter forward supply outlook. What stands out most is the combination of current Brazilian disruption and future El Niño risk. These are different risks occurring at different stages of the production cycle, but together they create the potential for a much more volatile sugar market. The recent highs show that the market is already pricing a significant portion of this risk. However, I would not treat the recent rally as confirmation of a sustained bull market yet. The next stage is confirmation. If Brazilian production continues to disappoint, India's lower crop estimate becomes more established and Thailand production falls toward the lower end of expectations, the global deficit could become considerably more important for pricing. The stronger dollar is currently preventing a cleaner upside move, but if the dollar weakens while production concerns intensify, sugar could have room to challenge and extend its recent highs. My medium-term bias remains bullish but volatile, with weather, Brazilian crushing rates and global production revisions likely to determine the next major move. Coming Sessions The market will remain focused on: Brazilian rainfall and cane crushing rates — the immediate supply factor. Brazil 2026/27 production revisions — further reductions would be bullish. Indian crop conditions — particularly following the weak monsoon. Thailand production estimates — further reductions would tighten export availability. El Niño developments — an increasingly important medium-term weather risk. US dollar direction — continued dollar strength could restrict upside. Global deficit estimates — revisions from the ISO, USDA and private analysts. Ethanol economics — higher crude prices could encourage Brazilian mills to favor ethanol over sugar. Today Markets View The underlying sugar market remains fundamentally bullish, but the recent highs make short-term consolidation and profit-taking possible. The strongest argument for higher prices is the growing evidence that 2026/27 production could disappoint across several major producing countries at the same time. Brazilian harvest disruption provides the immediate catalyst, while India, Thailand and El Niño provide the broader forward risk. Today Markets maintains a bullish medium-term bias toward sugar, while expecting elevated volatility around weather, production estimates and currency movements. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important secondary factor for sugar because the commodity is heavily influenced by the Brazilian real and US dollar. A stronger US dollar can place pressure on dollar-denominated sugar futures, while a stronger Brazilian real can reduce Brazilian producers' incentive to sell export supplies. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 8, 2026

Cotton Prices Retreat as Dollar Strength and Weak Energy Prices Pressure the Market

Cotton futures are facing renewed selling pressure, with contracts declining across the board as a firmer US dollar and weaker crude oil prices create a less supportive macroeconomic backdrop. The physical market is showing a mixed picture. US cash activity remains active, the Cotlook A Index has strengthened, and ICE certified stocks have fallen further. However, the futures market continues to face resistance as traders balance physical-market tightness against broader demand and currency considerations. Market Snapshot MarketLatest PriceChangeOct 2026 Cotton76.30¢/lb-118 ptsDec 2026 Cotton80.03¢/lb-118 ptsMar 2027 Cotton83.12¢/lb-105 ptsCotlook A Index91.45¢/lb+210 ptsAdjusted World Price65.16¢/lb-93 pts Cotton Price Action Cotton futures are under pressure, with October and December contracts both falling 118 points, while March declined 105 points. December cotton around 80.03 cents per pound remains the key nearby benchmark. The market's inability to hold recent gains indicates that traders remain cautious despite supportive signals from physical cotton markets. The forward curve continues to price higher levels into 2027, with March cotton at 83.12 cents, suggesting that the market still anticipates tighter or more constructive conditions further along the supply chain. Physical Cotton Market Physical-market indicators are providing some offset to the weakness in futures. The Seam reported sales of 3,951 bales at an average price of 82.22 cents per pound, demonstrating continued commercial activity in the cash market. The Cotlook A Index also recovered to 91.45 cents, indicating that international physical cotton values remain considerably stronger than nearby US futures. This divergence between physical prices and futures will be important to monitor. If physical demand remains firm, it could eventually provide support for futures. ICE Certified Stocks ICE certified cotton inventories declined by another 4,435 bales, leaving certified stocks at just 17,756 bales. The continued reduction in certified stocks is a constructive factor for the futures market. Although certified inventories represent only one component of the wider cotton balance, low exchange stocks can increase sensitivity to delivery concerns and nearby supply availability. If certified stocks continue to decline, this could provide an underlying floor for futures prices. Adjusted World Price The Adjusted World Price is currently around 65.16 cents per pound, following a decline of 93 points in the latest weekly adjustment. The AWP remains an important measure of US cotton's competitiveness in the global market. Changes in the AWP can influence producer marketing decisions and the relative attractiveness of US cotton to international buyers. Dollar and Crude Oil The broader macroeconomic environment is currently less supportive. The US dollar index strengthened by approximately 0.440, making US cotton relatively more expensive for international buyers when measured in local currencies. Crude oil also declined by around 50 cents per barrel. Energy prices matter to cotton because they influence synthetic-fiber economics, particularly polyester, as well as broader manufacturing and consumer-demand conditions. A stronger dollar combined with softer crude oil therefore creates a headwind for cotton demand. Bullish Scenario Cotton could strengthen if: ICE certified stocks continue to decline. Physical cotton prices remain firm. The Cotlook A Index continues to rise. Export demand improves. The US dollar weakens. Crude oil prices recover. Global textile demand improves. A sustained divergence between tight certified stocks and weaker futures could eventually encourage buyers to return to the futures market. Bearish Scenario Downside risks remain if: The US dollar continues to strengthen. Crude oil prices remain weak. Global textile demand remains subdued. US export demand fails to improve. Futures continue to trade below key technical resistance. Larger available supplies offset the decline in certified stocks. A sustained break below the $0.80 area in December cotton would be technically negative and could encourage additional liquidation. Price Outlook The cotton outlook is currently neutral to moderately bearish in the near term, although physical-market indicators are more constructive than futures prices suggest. December cotton at 80.03 cents is an important psychological level. Holding this area could allow the market to stabilize and potentially challenge higher resistance. A sustained move back above recent highs would strengthen the technical picture, particularly if accompanied by further declines in ICE certified stocks and stronger physical prices. Conversely, a decisive break below $0.80 would increase the risk of another leg lower. Supply Outlook The decline in ICE certified stocks provides evidence of tighter deliverable availability, but the wider global supply balance remains the more important medium-term consideration. The market will need to determine whether declining certified stocks represent a temporary logistical feature or a broader tightening of available cotton. Demand Outlook Demand remains the critical question. The stronger Cotlook A Index and active US cash-market sales are encouraging, but futures have yet to respond positively. A stronger US export programme would be needed to confirm that international buyers are willing to absorb cotton at current price levels. Currency movements will also remain important. A weaker dollar would improve US export competitiveness, while continued dollar strength could limit demand. Louis Roche Analysis Cotton is currently showing an interesting divergence between physical-market strength and futures-market weakness. The decline in ICE certified stocks to just 17,756 bales is clearly constructive, while the Cotlook A Index at 91.45 cents and cash sales around 82.22 cents indicate that physical values remain firm. Yet futures are struggling because the broader macro environment is working against the market. A stronger US dollar reduces export competitiveness, while lower crude oil prices weaken the relative economics of cotton against synthetic alternatives. My view is that 80 cents in December cotton is the key near-term dividing line. If the market holds that level while certified stocks continue to decline and physical prices remain firm, the downside may be limited. However, without stronger export demand or a weaker dollar, the futures market may struggle to convert physical-market strength into a sustained rally. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: US cotton export demand. ICE certified-stock movements. Cotlook A Index developments. US dollar direction. Crude oil prices. Global textile demand. Physical-market sales and producer selling. December cotton's ability to hold the 80-cent area. The relationship between futures and international physical prices. Today Markets View Cotton futures remain under pressure, but the physical market is considerably more constructive. Low ICE certified stocks, stronger Cotlook A values and active cash-market transactions suggest that underlying physical availability is tightening. The main obstacles are the stronger US dollar, weaker crude oil and uncertainty surrounding global textile demand. The market is therefore approaching an important technical and fundamental test. Holding the 80-cent area could allow cotton to stabilize, while a sustained break below it would increase downside risk. Currency Hedger View Currency movements are particularly important for cotton because the US dollar directly affects the competitiveness of US exports and the purchasing power of overseas textile buyers. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 8, 2026

Soybean Prices Ease as Harvest Advances and US Production Estimates Remain Elevated

Soybean prices are facing modest selling pressure as the market balances advancing US harvest activity against expectations for another slightly higher production estimate. Futures are lower across the nearby contracts, while soybean meal is gaining ground and soybean oil is under pressure. The next major catalysts are US export-sales data, the latest Crop Production estimates and the pace of harvest as weather conditions become more favorable across much of the US Midwest. Market Snapshot MarketLatest PriceChangeNov 2026 Soybeans$12.97½-5½¢Nearby Cash Soybeans$12.40¼-6¼¢Jan 2027 Soybeans$13.14½-4¾¢Mar 2027 Soybeans$13.24-4¾¢New Crop Cash Soybeans$11.97¼-3¢ Soybean Price Action Soybean futures remain under pressure after failing to extend recent gains. November futures are trading around $12.97½, while January and March contracts are holding above $13 but remain lower on the session. The decline is relatively measured, suggesting that the market is consolidating rather than entering a decisive bearish move. However, the advance of the US harvest is increasing available physical supply, while expectations for a slightly higher national yield are limiting bullish momentum. The nearby cash soybean price around $12.40¼ also reflects the softer tone in the physical market. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil The soybean complex remains divided. Soybean meal futures are gaining approximately $4.70 to $12.50, providing some support to the crush complex. Stronger meal values suggest that demand for protein products remains constructive. Soybean oil, meanwhile, is weaker, with futures down approximately 120 to 223 points. The divergence between meal and oil remains important because processor margins and demand for the two primary products can influence the pace of soybean crushing. Stronger meal demand could help offset some of the pressure created by weaker soybean oil values. US Export Demand USDA export-sales data will provide the next major demand signal. Traders are expecting soybean sales of approximately 450,000 to 1.2 million metric tons for the latest reporting period. Soybean meal sales are expected between 150,000 and 300,000 metric tons, while soybean oil sales are projected between 0 and 3,000 metric tons. Strong soybean sales toward the upper end of expectations would help demonstrate that US supplies remain competitive in global markets despite increasing harvest availability. Weak sales, however, would reinforce concerns that export demand could struggle to absorb the large US crop. US Production Outlook The upcoming Crop Production report is expected to show a marginal increase in US soybean yield. Bloomberg-surveyed analysts expect yield to rise by approximately 0.1 bushel per acre to 52.9 bpa, with total production increasing by approximately 3 million bushels to 4.538 billion bushels. The relatively small revision suggests that the market is not expecting a major change to the US production outlook. Nevertheless, with harvest advancing, even modest increases in yield can reinforce the perception that supplies will remain abundant. Harvest and Weather US soybean harvest is expected to make further progress over the coming week as a drier weather pattern allows producers to increase field activity. The near-term weather outlook therefore remains a bearish factor from a supply perspective because favorable conditions can accelerate the movement of soybeans from fields into the commercial pipeline. Further ahead, forecasts indicate potential rainfall across parts of Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa, Indiana and Ohio. While this later rainfall could slow harvest activity in affected areas, it does not currently appear sufficient to create a major nationwide supply concern. Bullish Scenario Soybeans could strengthen if: US export sales reach the upper end of expectations. Chinese or other major importers increase US purchases. Soybean meal demand remains strong. Harvest delays develop because of renewed rainfall. US yield fails to increase as expected. Crush demand remains strong enough to support soybean prices. A combination of strong exports and firm meal demand could provide the catalyst for soybean futures to reclaim the $13.00 level decisively. Bearish Scenario Downside risks remain if: Export sales fall toward the lower end of expectations. Harvest progresses rapidly under favorable weather. US yield is revised higher again. Production estimates continue to increase. Soybean oil remains under pressure. South American supply expectations remain comfortable. A sustained break below $13.00 in November soybeans would weaken the near-term technical structure and could encourage additional selling. Price Outlook The soybean outlook is currently neutral to moderately bearish, with prices constrained by harvest pressure and expectations for a large US crop. November soybeans around $12.97½ are approaching an important psychological level at $13.00. A sustained recovery above that level would improve the short-term technical picture and could encourage additional buying toward the January contract's $13.14½ area and beyond. Failure to regain $13.00 would leave the market vulnerable to further pressure, particularly if export sales disappoint and harvest accelerates. Supply Outlook The US supply outlook remains comfortable. An expected yield of 52.9 bpa and production near 4.538 billion bushels would leave the market dealing with substantial availability as harvest progresses. The immediate weather outlook is also favorable for fieldwork, increasing the likelihood that more physical supply will enter the market in the coming weeks. Demand Outlook Demand remains the key counterweight to harvest pressure. Soybean export sales will be closely watched, while soybean meal is showing stronger price performance. This suggests that domestic crushing demand remains an important source of support. Soybean oil is currently the weaker component of the complex, and continued weakness there could limit the overall upside in soybean prices. Louis Roche Analysis Soybeans are entering a period where harvest pressure and demand will compete directly for market direction. The market does not appear to be facing a major supply shock. Instead, the current setup points toward a large US crop becoming increasingly available while traders wait for confirmation that export demand can absorb the supply. The strongest bullish signal would be export sales toward the upper end of expectations combined with continued strength in soybean meal. That would indicate that demand is sufficiently robust to offset the pressure coming from harvest. Conversely, rapid harvest progress, weak export sales and another upward revision to yield would strengthen the bearish case. For now, I see $13.00 as an important psychological dividing line. Holding that level and attracting stronger demand would improve the outlook, while sustained trading below it would suggest the market needs to move lower to stimulate additional buying. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: US weekly soybean export sales. Soybean meal and soybean oil sales. The latest US Crop Production estimates. Revisions to the national soybean yield. US harvest progress. Weather across the Midwest. South American production prospects. Soybean crush margins and meal demand. Technical performance around the $13.00 level. Today Markets View Soybeans remain under moderate pressure as harvest advances and US production expectations remain elevated. The market's ability to maintain the $13.00 area will depend increasingly on export demand and the strength of the soybean processing complex. Stronger export sales and firm soybean meal demand could provide a foundation for recovery, while rapid harvest progress and disappointing demand would keep prices under pressure. The coming US data should provide a clearer indication of whether soybeans can stabilize above current levels or require another move lower to generate additional demand. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain important for the soybean market because exchange rates influence the competitiveness of US exports relative to South American supplies and affect purchasing power for major international buyers. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 8, 2026

Corn Prices Consolidate as Ethanol Demand Strengthens Ahead of US Crop Data

Corn prices are consolidating after giving back part of their recent advance, with futures under pressure as traders assess improving ethanol demand against expectations for a modest reduction in US yield and production estimates. The market is now looking toward US export-sales data and the next Crop Production report for confirmation of demand strength and the size of the US crop. International buying interest is also providing support, with a South Korean importer tendering for 207,000 metric tons of corn. Market Snapshot MarketLatest PriceChangeDec 2026 Corn$5.02-6¢Nearby Cash Corn$4.63¼-6¢Mar 2027 Corn$5.17-5¼¢May 2027 Corn$5.24¼-4¾¢ Corn Price Action Corn futures are showing some short-term weakness after failing to maintain the previous rally. Most contracts are lower by approximately 2 to 6 cents, with December corn settling around $5.02. The decline currently looks more like consolidation than a decisive deterioration in the underlying fundamentals. The market remains focused on whether upcoming US data will confirm tighter production prospects and stronger demand. The nearby cash market around $4.63¼ remains an important indicator of underlying physical-market conditions. Ethanol Demand Strengthens US ethanol production is providing an important source of demand support. Production reached approximately 1.053 million barrels per day, an increase of 46,000 barrels per day on the week. Ethanol inventories also continued their seasonal decline, falling by 122,000 barrels to approximately 23.743 million barrels. The combination of higher production and declining stocks suggests that corn demand from the ethanol sector remains relatively firm. If ethanol production continues to operate at elevated levels, it could provide a constructive demand floor for corn prices, particularly if export demand also improves. US Export Demand The next major catalyst is US export-sales data, with analysts expecting between 600,000 and 1.7 million metric tons of corn sales for the latest reporting period. Sales toward the upper end of that range would reinforce the bullish demand case and demonstrate that US corn remains competitive in international markets. A weaker result, however, could limit the market's ability to extend its recent gains and increase the focus on the size of the incoming US crop. US Crop Production Outlook The upcoming Crop Production report is expected to provide another important fundamental catalyst. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect US corn yield to be reduced by approximately 0.7 bushels per acre to 177.8 bpa. US production is also expected to be reduced by approximately 67 million bushels to 15.733 billion bushels. Although these would represent relatively modest revisions, they could still have an important psychological impact because the market is already assessing whether US production will meet current expectations. A further reduction in yield or production could tighten the balance sheet and provide additional support to futures. International Demand International demand is showing encouraging signs, with a South Korean importer tendering for 207,000 metric tons of corn. South Korea remains an important feed-grain buyer, and additional tenders from Asian importers could provide evidence that current prices are attracting physical demand. Continued buying from major importers would be particularly supportive if US export sales also exceed expectations. Bullish Scenario Corn could strengthen if: US corn yield is reduced more than expected. Production estimates fall further. Export sales reach the upper end of expectations. South Korean and other Asian buyers continue to tender for corn. Ethanol production remains above seasonal levels. Ethanol inventories continue to decline. US cash markets remain firm. A combination of lower production and stronger domestic and international demand could tighten the US balance sheet and encourage renewed fund buying. Bearish Scenario Downside risks remain if: US yield remains close to current estimates. Production cuts are smaller than expected. Export sales disappoint. Ethanol production loses momentum. Global corn supplies remain abundant. Technical selling continues following the recent rally. A failure to generate stronger export demand could leave the market vulnerable to renewed pressure, particularly if the Crop Production report confirms a large US crop. Price Outlook The near-term corn outlook is neutral to moderately bullish, with the market entering an important fundamental period. December corn around $5.02 is the key reference level. Holding above the $5.00 area would help preserve the recent recovery structure and could encourage another attempt toward higher resistance. A sustained move below $5.00, however, would weaken the technical picture and could bring additional selling pressure. The next directional move is likely to depend heavily on the combination of US export sales and the Crop Production report. Supply Outlook US production expectations remain large, but the possibility of another downward adjustment to yield and total production is providing underlying support. The expected reduction to 177.8 bpa and 15.733 billion bushels would modestly tighten the supply outlook. Larger reductions would be considerably more bullish, particularly if demand remains strong. Demand Outlook Demand fundamentals are currently more encouraging. Ethanol production has increased to 1.053 million barrels per day, while ethanol stocks continue to decline. International demand is also showing signs of strength through the South Korean tender. The critical question is whether these domestic and international demand signals translate into stronger US export sales. If they do, the market could begin pricing a tighter supply-demand balance. Louis Roche Analysis Corn is currently in a fundamentally interesting position. The recent price weakness should not be viewed in isolation. Ethanol production is strengthening, inventories are drawing down and international buyers are actively tendering for corn. At the same time, the market is anticipating a modest reduction in US yield and production. The key risk for bears is that several supportive factors are beginning to align at the same time. If export sales come in strongly and the Crop Production report confirms a lower yield, the market could quickly shift from consolidation back toward an upside breakout. However, US production remains historically large, and the expected reduction is relatively small. Therefore, the market still needs evidence that demand is strong enough to absorb available supplies. My near-term bias is constructive above the $5.00 area, with the next major directional signal likely to come from US production and export data. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: US weekly corn export sales. The US Crop Production report. Revisions to US yield and production. Ethanol production and inventory trends. Further South Korean and Asian corn tenders. US cash-market strength. Technical support around the $5.00 December futures level. Changes in fund positioning as new fundamental data emerges. Today Markets View Corn remains supported by firm ethanol demand, declining ethanol inventories and expectations for a modest reduction in US production. International buying interest is also constructive. The market's next major test will be whether export sales and Crop Production data confirm the improving demand and tightening-supply narrative. A stronger-than-expected combination of export demand and lower production could push corn back toward recent highs, while disappointing demand or a larger-than-expected crop would leave prices vulnerable to renewed selling. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important factor for global corn trade because exchange-rate changes influence the competitiveness of major exporters and the purchasing power of international buyers. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 8, 2026

Wheat Prices Retreat as Traders Await US Export Sales and WASDE Updates

Wheat markets are facing renewed selling pressure as futures retreat after failing to extend the previous session’s strength. Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat are all under pressure, with traders now shifting their attention toward upcoming US export-sales data, the latest WASDE estimates and revisions to global production forecasts. The near-term outlook remains heavily influenced by the balance between US export demand, domestic inventories and production prospects across major exporters. At the same time, a lower Russian crop estimate provides some underlying support to the global supply outlook. Market Snapshot MarketLatest PriceChangeDec 2026 CBOT Wheat$6.86½-17¾¢Mar 2027 CBOT Wheat$7.01-16½¢Dec 2026 KC HRW Wheat$7.38½-17¾¢Mar 2027 KC HRW Wheat$7.52-17¢Dec 2026 Minneapolis Wheat$7.10¼-9½¢Mar 2027 Minneapolis Wheat$7.29¾-8¢ Wheat Prices and Market Structure The wheat complex is struggling to maintain upward momentum after the recent recovery. Chicago SRW contracts are showing losses of roughly 14 to 18 cents, while Kansas City HRW futures are also under significant pressure. Minneapolis spring wheat is comparatively resilient but remains lower. The decline places renewed focus on whether the recent rebound was simply a short-term correction or the beginning of a broader recovery. For prices to regain momentum, the market will likely need evidence of stronger export demand or additional supply-side concerns. The December CBOT contract at $6.86½ remains an important near-term reference point, while the March contract at $7.01 indicates that the market continues to price some additional value into deferred delivery. US Export Demand The next major catalyst is US export-sales data, with traders looking for approximately 200,000 to 500,000 metric tons of wheat sales. A result toward the upper end of that range would provide some support by reinforcing expectations that US wheat remains competitive in international markets. Conversely, a disappointing figure could add to the current selling pressure and reinforce concerns that export demand is insufficient to absorb available supplies. Export performance will remain one of the most important indicators for the wheat market as traders assess the pace of US shipments against elevated domestic supply expectations. US Wheat Inventories Market attention is also turning toward the next WASDE update. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect US wheat stocks to be raised by approximately 4 million bushels to 721 million bushels. An increase in projected stocks would reinforce the bearish supply narrative, particularly if the adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected demand or slower export movement. However, the market could react differently if stronger export sales or other demand revisions offset the increase in inventories. Global Supply and Russian Production Russia remains a major influence on the global wheat balance, and SovEcon now estimates the country's 2026 wheat crop at 87.5 million metric tons, down 0.7 million tons from its previous estimate. The reduction provides a modest supply-side bullish factor, particularly because Russia remains one of the world's largest wheat exporters. Nevertheless, the size of the Russian crop remains substantial, meaning the downward revision alone may not be enough to materially tighten the global market. Export pricing, Black Sea competition and weather conditions will remain important factors for the international wheat balance. Bullish Scenario Wheat could find renewed support if: US export sales exceed expectations. WASDE reduces available US supplies rather than increasing them. Russian production estimates continue to decline. Black Sea export competition becomes more constrained. International buyers increase coverage at current price levels. Weather creates additional production uncertainty across major growing regions. A combination of stronger export demand and tightening global supply expectations could encourage traders to rebuild long positions. Bearish Scenario Downside risks remain if: US export sales fall toward or below the lower end of expectations. WASDE increases US ending stocks to around 721 million bushels or higher. Russian exports remain highly competitive. Global production remains comfortable despite regional crop concerns. Technical selling continues after the recent failure to hold gains. A sustained break below recent support levels could encourage additional fund liquidation and keep pressure on the nearby contracts. Price Outlook The immediate wheat outlook is neutral to bearish, with prices needing fresh fundamental support to reverse the current momentum. December CBOT wheat around $6.86½ is the key near-term reference. A recovery back above the recent trading range would improve the technical picture and could open the way toward the $7.00 area and beyond. Conversely, continued selling below current levels would expose the market to deeper downside pressure, particularly if US stocks are revised higher and export demand remains subdued. Supply Outlook US supply remains relatively comfortable, while the expected increase in ending stocks would reinforce the availability of wheat during the coming marketing period. The reduction in the Russian crop estimate is a supportive development, but Russia still retains significant export capacity. The wider global supply outlook therefore remains dependent on production revisions, Black Sea availability and weather across the major producing regions. Demand Outlook Demand is becoming the central question for the wheat market. US export sales will provide the clearest near-term indication of whether current prices are attracting sufficient international buying interest. Stronger-than-expected sales could help stabilize prices, while weak demand would increase pressure on inventories and encourage further bearish positioning. Louis Roche Analysis The wheat market is currently caught between comfortable supply expectations and the possibility of improving export demand. The recent failure to follow through on the previous recovery is technically negative, but I would not view the decline as a definitive change in the longer-term outlook yet. The next US export-sales report and WASDE update have the potential to significantly alter market sentiment. The most important issue is whether the market can demonstrate that current prices are competitive enough to generate stronger international demand. If sales improve while Russian production estimates continue to decline, wheat could establish a more durable base. However, if US stocks rise toward 721 million bushels while exports remain disappointing, the market may need to move lower to stimulate additional demand. For now, I see downside pressure in the near term, but with increasing potential for volatility around the upcoming US supply and demand data. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: US weekly wheat export sales. The latest WASDE supply and demand estimates. Revisions to US wheat ending stocks. Further updates to Russian production estimates. Black Sea export competitiveness. Fund positioning and technical support around current CBOT levels. Global weather developments affecting the next crop cycle. Today Markets View Wheat remains vulnerable to additional selling while US inventories are expected to rise and the market waits for evidence of stronger export demand. However, lower Russian production estimates and the potential for improved international buying could limit the downside if demand begins to strengthen. The next round of US data should provide a clearer indication of whether the recent weakness represents a deeper bearish move or simply a correction within a broader trading range. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important secondary influence on global wheat competitiveness. Changes in the US dollar against the currencies of major wheat exporters can alter export economics and influence international purchasing decisions. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 8, 2026

Webull shares down 20% amid fears over potential China ties

Webull (BULL.US) shares are down more than 20% today following the publication of a report by the bipartisan U.S. House Select Committee on China, which raised national security concerns over the platform’s ties to China. The stock has fallen to around $5.80 as investors react to concerns surrounding the company’s ownership structure, technology infrastructure and data flows. Webull disputes parts of the report and says it contains significant inaccuracies. The company was founded by a former Xiaomi and Alibaba employee, while its potential links to China have been debated for years. The committee said Webull’s ownership structure, technology operations, infrastructure, financing and compliance systems are materially connected to China. According to the report, the company presents itself publicly as a U.S. business, while some key technology operations are reportedly handled by an entity based in mainland China. Since October 2025, Webull has directly held customer cash, which the committee said increased the exposure of U.S. capital to potential risk. The report argues that parts of Webull’s software, data infrastructure and engineering operations may fall under Chinese law, which in certain circumstances can require companies to cooperate with state authorities. Webull disputes the report’s conclusions and says the committee did not seek clarification from the company before publishing its findings. The company stresses that its U.S. operations are run from offices in Florida and New York, while U.S. customer data is stored domestically and access to sensitive information is controlled in the United States. The committee’s report could represent a significant reputational blow for a company that operates brokerage accounts for U.S. customers, although Webull has not accepted the committee’s conclusions. Even so, a more difficult regulatory environment could become a meaningful challenge for the company and complicate its efforts to attract and retain customers in the U.S. market. Source: xStation5

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October 8, 2026

Caterpillar shares extend decline, down 30% from record high

Caterpillar ( CAT.US ) shares are down around 5.5%, making the stock the weakest performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The immediate catalyst for the sell-off was a price-target cut by Truist Securities from $1,225 to $1,100, although analysts maintained a Buy rating. The bank pointed to concerns over the durability of spending tied to power generation, data centers and artificial intelligence, as well as the negative impact of high interest rates and rising diesel prices. Today’s decline, however, follows a very strong rally. Caterpillar shares are still up more than 50% year to date, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 by nearly three times, which makes the stock more vulnerable to profit-taking and valuation concerns. Investors will now focus mainly on the company’s Q3 earnings, which are expected at the end of October. Caterpillar share price chart (D1 timeframe) Investors increasingly view Caterpillar as one of the major beneficiaries of AI-related capital spending, with meaningful exposure to data-center construction. The shares have fallen by around 30% from their local peak and are now trading close to the 200-day exponential moving average, EMA200 (red line). Caterpillar is scheduled to report earnings on October 29 after the US market close. The market is no longer valuing the company like a typical cyclical industrial manufacturer, but rather as a business expected to deliver sustained growth from power generation, infrastructure and data-center investment. Source: xStation5 From a valuation perspective, Caterpillar is a classic example of a company whose strong share-price performance appears to have moved ahead of the pace of fundamental improvement. The stock has gained around 42% year to date and nearly 65% over the past 12 months, while average growth over the last eight quarters stands at roughly 3.5% for revenue, 4.5% for EBIT and just 1.1% for EPS. With a trailing P/E of 37 and a forward P/E of around 32, the market is paying a substantial premium for further earnings improvement and the continuation of a strong investment cycle. On the other hand, the company continues to show strong operating quality, with an EBIT margin of around 20.9% and ROE of 75.5%, pointing to very high profitability on equity. It is worth noting, however, that such a high ROE coincides with a relatively elevated level of leverage, with Debt/Equity at 2.3, meaning that not all of the return on equity comes purely from improvements in the underlying operating business. The biggest valuation risk today is therefore not weakness in Caterpillar itself, but overly optimistic market expectations: if revenue and earnings growth remain in the single digits, current valuation multiples may prove difficult to sustain. At the same time, record revenue and net income shown on the chart suggest that the underlying fundamental trend remains positive, so the key question is whether Caterpillar can convert strong demand from infrastructure, power generation and data centers into sustained free cash flow growth. In the current setup, the company looks more like a high-quality business priced for continued near-perfect execution than a traditional value opportunity. Source: XTB Research

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October 7, 2026

Gold: Central banks keep buying – ING

ING’s commodities team, led by Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, reports that Gold edged higher on Tuesday as lower Oil prices and stronger bond markets eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further rate hikes. They emphasize persistent central bank demand, with World Gold Council data showing continued net buying driven by long-term reserve diversification. Official-sector demand underpins prices "Gold edged higher on Tuesday, recovering early losses as lower oil prices and stronger bond markets eased inflation concerns and tempered expectations of further interest rate increases. Persistent central bank buying also continued to provide support." "World Gold Council data showed central banks remained net buyers in August, adding 39 tonnes and bringing year-to-date purchases to 170 tonnes. China led purchases with 20 tonnes, extending its buying streak to 22 consecutive months, while Poland and Uzbekistan each added 8 tonnes to their reserves." "Turkey returned as a net buyer in August, purchasing 3 tonnes after three consecutive months of net sales. Other buyers included Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic, Bolivia and Ghana. Russia reduced its gold holdings by 6 tonnes." "The latest data suggests official-sector demand remains resilient despite elevated gold prices, with purchases continuing to be driven by longer-term reserve diversification objectives rather than short-term market movements." "With China, Poland and several emerging-market central banks continuing to accumulate gold, official-sector demand is likely to remain an important source of support for the market in the months ahead."

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October 7, 2026

Euro: Fiscal concerns limit recovery against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that concerns over France’s national debt have recently weighed on the Euro, reviving memories of the earlier sovereign debt crisis. She argues fiscal consolidation in some Euro zone countries is both difficult and unpopular, so credibility will be hard to restore quickly. With the resilient US economy and limited new data, the Dollar is expected to remain in demand as EUR/USD struggles. Euro pressured by French debt worries "We’ve seen in recent days, amid concerns about France’s national debt, just how quickly doubts about the credibility of governments can weigh on the euro. That said, the focus is definitely more on the bond market than on the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, for some who were already in the market back in the 2010s, memories of the sovereign debt crisis came flooding back: Long nights spent waiting for massive bailout packages and, at times, a drastic weakening of the euro." "Meanwhile, the ECB is remaining fairly tight-lipped regarding long-term yields and yield spreads in the euro zone. In any case, it is likely to wait and see before considering rushing to France’s aid with a program, especially since the situation has eased again. But with concerns about France’s public finances, the euro has lost some of its luster, and it is unlikely to regain it anytime soon." "At the same time, the US economy continues to show resilience. The weaker-than-expected US jobs report has not left any lasting impact on the US dollar, and both the ISM manufacturing index and the services index remain in expansionary territory. As such, there is no reason for a revaluation of the US dollar, especially since no major economic data releases are on the agenda in the coming days." "In this regard, the dollar is likely to maintain its position for the time being and remain the currency in greater demand, even though the euro is currently the focus of attention but urgently needs fiscal credibility to regain ground."

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Banks

October 7, 2026

British Pound: Upside capped near 1.3315 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD broke above their prior resistance level as the British Pound (GBP) outperformed on Tuesday, invalidating an earlier mildly bearish view. For the next 24 hours they see scope for a retest of nearby resistance but doubt a sustained break higher, while over 1–3 weeks they expect only a modest grind toward the next upside level, contingent on holding key support. Pound edges higher within set bands "24-HOUR VIEW: Following GBP’s price action two days ago, we stated yesterday that “there has been no clear shift in either downward or upward momentum.” We indicated that GBP “is likely to range-trade between 1.3195 and 1.3245.” Our view of range-trading was incorrect, as GBP rose to a high of 1.3286. Upward momentum has increased, albeit not significantly. Today, there is a chance for GBP to retest 1.3285. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. The major resistance at 1.3315 is also unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 1.3240, followed by 1.3220." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from last Friday (02 Oct, spot at 1.3195), we noted that “while downward momentum is building again, it is not strong for now.” We were of the view that GBP “is likely to edge lower toward the major support at 1.3140.” Yesterday, GBP rose and broke above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.3265, invalidating our view. There has been a slight increase in upward momentum, and this time around, GBP may edge higher toward 1.3315. Based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above 1.3315 is unlikely. To sustain mild upward momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, now at 1.3200."

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Banks

October 7, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ normalisation supports gains against US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that USD/JPY is still trading above 158, but Governor Ueda’s comments point to further Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy normalisation. Ueda stressed anchoring inflation around 2% and noted upside risks from imports, AI demand and JPY weakness. Wan remains constructive on the Japanese Yen, though further gains likely need faster BoJ rate hikes to validate market expectations. BoJ stance key for Yen outlook "USD/JPY continues trading above the 158 level, although Governor Ueda’s remarks continued to point towards further BoJ policy normalisation." "Ueda emphasised the importance of anchoring underlying inflation around 2% and highlighted upside risks from import costs, AI-related demand and JPY weakness." "Meanwhile, the 10-year JGB auction drew stronger-than-average demand as yields above 3% attracted buyers, suggesting investors are better compensated for duration risk despite lingering fiscal concerns." "However, the solid auction result may also limit further upward pressure on yields." "Our global team remains constructive on the yen, but further gains will likely require the BoJ to validate expectations for a faster pace of rate hikes, particularly after the GPIF report prompted some unwinding of recent JPY strength." "The report was interpreted as signalling continuity in portfolio allocation rather than a meaningful shift towards domestic assets, dampening expectations for an additional source of structural JPY demand and prompting some unwinding of long-JPY positions."

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Banks

October 7, 2026

Equities: Valuation reset underpins new highs – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team observes US equities extending their rebound, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting fresh record highs and cyclical laggards leading gains. The team argues markets are not excessively optimistic, noting valuation multiples have compressed over the past year and quarter. They stress that future nominal earnings growth remains the key driver of broad equity performance despite energy and rate headwinds. Record highs framed by cheaper valuations "Equities continued its rebound yesterday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs, gaining 0.5-0.6% respectively. Unlike earlier this week, yesterday's session had a clear relief-rally character. Some of the weakest-performing sectors in recent months led the market higher, with utilities, real estate, and consumer discretionary up between 1% and 3% on the day." "New all-time highs may seem inconsistent with the renewed escalation in the Middle East, sticky high oil prices, rallying bond yields and central banks' increasingly tightening. However, it is worth remembering that the S&P 500 has already shed roughly a fifth off its valuation multiple over the past year. Only over the last quarter, S&P 500 has become 5% cheaper, even after the recent rebound." "For that reason, we disagree with the view that equity markets are excessively optimistic. In our view, markets have priced the current earnings backdrop fairly conservatively throughout this year." "The fact that equities, credit markets, and bonds have reacted differently in recent weeks does not necessarily mean that one asset class is right and another is wrong. Rather, they represent different things." "For equities, the dominant driver is future nominal earnings growth. The energy shock is visible, more so in certain sectors than others, and higher rates are restraining parts of the market. Nevertheless, earnings remain the key determinant of broad equity performance, provided that returns on investment continue to grow faster than the discount rate, which, so far, is the case."

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Markets

October 7, 2026

Palm Oil Extends Decline as Monthly Data Looms

Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses, hovering below MYR 4,550 per tonne as weaker Chicago soyoil weighed on sentiment. Caution also prevailed ahead of Malaysian Palm Oil Board monthly data, with stocks expected to peak this month. Sluggish demand added pressure, with cargo surveyors estimating a 17.1%-28.8% month-on-month drop in palm oil exports in September. European Union palm oil imports for the 2026/27 season, which began in July, also fell 18% year-on-year to 0.71 million tonnes. In Indonesia, the forestry task force handed nearly 260,000 hectares of reclaimed land to the Forestry Ministry, with more than half set to be managed by Agrinas Palma Nusantara, potentially adding to longer-term supply. Still, a softer ringgit and firmer crude oil prices amid Middle East supply constraints helped limit losses by supporting palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Meanwhile, China's Dalian markets will resume activity on Thursday.

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Markets

October 7, 2026

XAG/USD remains below $61.00 as oil prices surge

Silver declines as higher crude oil prices, driven by Middle East energy risks, and renewed inflation fears. Easing Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations following soft US labor data provided crucial support for silver prices. Multi-decade US Treasury yields, driven by high debt issuance and inflation risks, continued to cap Silver's upside. Silver price (XAG/USD) declined after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in positive territory and trading around $60.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Wednesday. Non-yielding Silver experienced downside pressure as a rebound in crude oil prices, driven by persistent Middle East supply risks, kept inflationary concerns and rate-hike expectations firmly in focus. Oil markets climbed as escalating threats to regional energy flows overshadowed signs of recovering supply. Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations reporting nine incidents already this month. Adding to regional tensions, a Saudi-led coalition intercepted and destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile targeting Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia, while traders also weighed potential production disruptions from a developing storm threatening major US energy hubs in the Gulf of Mexico. Despite these headwinds, Silver prices found some support as expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening eased after last week's softer US labor market data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, interest-rate swaps reflect roughly a 20% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's upcoming October meeting. Nonetheless, US Treasury yields held near multi-decade highs, underpinned by sticky inflation risks, growing fiscal deficits, and heavy debt issuance tied to expanding AI investments. Systematic Silver flows eyed as TD Securities flags key trigger level According to TD Securities, their Advanced CTA Position Tracker highlights that trend-following funds remain only modestly engaged in silver, with CTAs currently holding a small net short around “-2% of maximum historical size.” The report identifies a key downside trigger level at “$60.71 -2.9%,” which is part of TD’s scenario analysis mapping how systematic flows could evolve across both “big downtape to big uptape” paths in silver over the coming year.

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Energies

October 7, 2026

WTI Oil Prices Rise Toward $90 as Middle East Supply Risks Tighten the Market

WTI crude oil is trading near $89.50 per barrel, extending its advance as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows continue to outweigh signs of recovering regional supply. The latest strength reflects renewed concern over tanker attacks, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing military activity involving Iran and the Houthis. At the same time, a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico is creating an additional risk for US offshore oil and gas infrastructure. The market is therefore balancing two opposing forces: tightening geopolitical and physical supply risks on one side, and recovering Persian Gulf flows and additional barrels on the other. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactWTI crudeAround $89.50/bblBullish momentumMiddle EastElevated supply risksSupports pricesStrait of HormuzTanker attacks and disruption concernsBullishHouthi activityContinued missile and regional attacksBullishUS Gulf stormThreat to energy infrastructureSupply riskGlobal inventoriesFalling rapidlyBullishDiesel marketTight, prices elevatedBullishPersian Gulf flowsShowing signs of recoveryCaps upsideSaudi East-West pipelineCapacity restored to 5.8m bpdReduces supply risk WTI Price Action and Market Structure WTI has extended its gains for a second consecutive session and is approaching the $90 per barrel psychological threshold. The rally is being driven primarily by concerns over physical supply rather than a simple increase in speculative demand. The market is increasingly sensitive to the possibility that attacks on tankers and regional infrastructure could reduce the amount of crude reaching international consumers. A sustained break above $90 would strengthen the bullish technical structure, while failure to clear that level could encourage profit-taking if Gulf shipments continue to recover. Strait of Hormuz Remains a Major Risk The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important variables for the global oil market. Iran has intensified attacks on tankers in recent days, while the UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported nine incidents so far this month. Any meaningful restriction of tanker traffic through the Strait would have significant consequences because of the strategic importance of the waterway to global energy transportation. The market does not need a complete closure to react sharply. Even higher insurance costs, longer transit times and increased security requirements can reduce effective supply and increase the risk premium embedded in crude prices. Houthi Activity Adds to Regional Risk Geopolitical risk is also being reinforced by continued Houthi activity. A Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting and destroying a ballistic missile launched toward Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia. Although individual attacks do not necessarily result in a lasting reduction in oil production, continued military activity increases uncertainty around regional infrastructure and shipping routes. For oil markets, the key issue is therefore the cumulative risk to physical flows rather than any single incident. US Gulf Storm Creates Additional Supply Risk A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico is creating another potential source of short-term support for crude prices. US forecasters have warned that the system could intensify into the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2026 within 48 hours, potentially threatening offshore oil and gas facilities. The Gulf of Mexico is a major energy-producing region, meaning a sufficiently strong storm could temporarily disrupt offshore production, refining activity, shipping and other infrastructure. The impact will depend on the storm's final path and intensity, but the possibility of disruption is already adding a risk premium to energy prices. EIA Raises Oil Price Forecasts The US Energy Information Administration has raised its oil-price forecasts for this year and next year, citing rapidly declining global inventories and tight diesel markets. The EIA's latest outlook also highlighted attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline as evidence that physical supply disruption remains a significant risk to oil markets. The agency now expects Brent crude to average approximately $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter, around $14 higher than its previous estimate. For 2026 as a whole, Brent is projected to average approximately $98 per barrel, representing an 8% upward revision from the previous monthly forecast. These revisions reinforce the view that the current oil market is tighter than previously anticipated. Diesel Market Remains Tight The diesel market is providing an additional source of support for crude. US retail diesel prices reached record levels last month and are expected to remain above $6 per gallon through October before gradually declining. The EIA expects prices to eventually moderate toward an average of approximately $4.50 per gallon in 2027. Persistent diesel tightness is important because it indicates that refined-product markets remain under pressure even as crude flows begin to recover. This suggests that additional barrels entering the market may be absorbed relatively quickly by strong demand for refined products. Persian Gulf Flows Begin to Recover The main factor limiting the upside in crude is the recovery in Persian Gulf energy flows. Despite the elevated security risks, some tankers are continuing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline has also restored crude pumping capacity to approximately 5.8 million barrels per day. These developments reduce the immediate risk of a severe physical supply shortage and could limit the size of the geopolitical premium currently embedded in oil prices. The market will therefore be watching actual tanker movements and pipeline utilisation closely. Oil Balances Tighten as Additional Supply Is Absorbed The fundamental balance remains more complicated than headline production numbers suggest. Additional crude flows are entering the market, but those barrels are increasingly being absorbed by stronger demand and ongoing disruptions connected to Iran and Houthi activity. This means that rising supply does not necessarily translate into a looser market. If demand continues to absorb additional production while geopolitical disruptions remain elevated, the underlying balance could remain tight even as some physical flows recover. Bullish Scenario WTI could extend its advance toward and beyond $90 if: Strait of Hormuz disruptions intensify. Tanker attacks continue. Iranian or Houthi activity threatens additional infrastructure. The Gulf of Mexico storm disrupts US production. Global inventories continue declining. Diesel markets remain tight. Strong demand absorbs recovering crude flows. Additional attacks affect major pipelines or export terminals. A sustained move above $90 per barrel would strengthen the bullish structure and could open the way toward higher psychological resistance. Bearish Scenario The upside could be limited if: Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalises. Persian Gulf exports continue recovering. Saudi pipeline capacity remains fully operational. The US Gulf storm causes limited disruption. Global production increases faster than demand. Geopolitical tensions begin to ease. Global inventories stabilise. A sustained decline below recent support would suggest that the geopolitical premium is beginning to unwind. WTI Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains constructive, with WTI approaching the $90 threshold. The combination of falling global inventories, tight diesel markets and continuing Middle East risks provides fundamental support. However, the market is becoming increasingly dependent on the scale of actual physical disruption. If Gulf shipments continue recovering and the US storm produces limited damage, prices could struggle to maintain the current risk premium. Conversely, any significant interruption to tanker traffic or production infrastructure could quickly push crude above $90. Supply Outlook The supply picture remains unusually sensitive to geopolitical developments. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restoring capacity to 5.8 million barrels per day provides an important source of supply resilience, while tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz indicate that energy flows have not been completely paralysed. However, the ongoing attacks mean that the market continues to price the possibility of further disruptions. The immediate supply outlook is therefore recovering but fragile. Demand Outlook Demand remains strong enough to absorb additional crude supply. The tightening diesel market is particularly important because it indicates continued demand for refined products even as crude flows recover. If global consumption remains resilient, additional barrels from the Persian Gulf may simply prevent prices from rising faster rather than create a sustained bearish surplus. The balance between recovering supply and resilient consumption will therefore determine whether the current rally can continue. Louis Roche Analysis WTI is approaching a critical point as the market moves toward $90 per barrel. The bullish case is not simply about geopolitical headlines. What matters is whether those risks translate into a meaningful reduction in physical supply. At present, the market is showing signs of tightening because additional barrels are being absorbed by demand while Iran and Houthi-related disruptions continue to threaten regional flows. The EIA's upward revision to its Brent outlook reinforces this interpretation. Falling global inventories and tight diesel markets suggest that the market has less spare capacity to absorb a major disruption than it might appear from headline production figures. However, I would not assume that every geopolitical development will automatically produce another sustained oil rally. The recovery in Persian Gulf shipments and the restoration of Saudi pipeline capacity provide important counterweights. If tanker flows continue improving, the risk premium could gradually decline. The key near-term test is therefore $90 WTI. A sustained break above that level would indicate that the market is increasingly pricing a genuine physical supply risk rather than simply a temporary geopolitical premium. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: Developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker movements and shipping disruptions. Iranian and Houthi military activity. The path and intensity of the US Gulf storm. Offshore US oil and gas production. Saudi East-West pipeline utilisation. Persian Gulf export flows. Global crude inventories. US diesel prices and refined-product demand. WTI's ability to sustain a move above $90. Today Markets View Near term: Bullish while Middle East supply risks and falling inventories remain dominant. Medium term: Constructive but increasingly dependent on actual physical disruptions. Key level: $90 per barrel is the next major psychological threshold for WTI. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the current oil rally as important for both energy costs and foreign-exchange exposure. Sustained crude prices near or above $90 could reinforce inflation pressures and influence expectations for global interest rates, potentially supporting the US dollar if markets anticipate tighter monetary policy. For businesses exposed to energy imports, higher oil prices can also increase the cost of international trade and create additional currency risk where purchases are denominated in US dollars. The interaction between crude oil, the US dollar and interest-rate expectations will therefore remain important as geopolitical risks continue to develop. Currency Hedger Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 7, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Rise as Production Falls and LNG Demand Strengthens

US natural gas prices have climbed to around $3.13 per MMBtu, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session and reaching their highest level since September 25. The latest move higher is being supported by a combination of falling US production, stronger LNG feedgas demand and increasingly supportive weather forecasts. Lower output is tightening the near-term supply picture, while Freeport LNG is increasing gas intake following the return of a liquefaction train from maintenance. At the same time, forecasts have shifted warmer across much of the United States. Above-average temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country through October 10 could increase cooling demand and raise natural gas consumption from the power-generation sector. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactNatural gasAround $3.13/MMBtuFour-session advancePrice trendHighest since September 25Bullish near-term momentumLower 48 production111.7 bcfd in OctoberBelow August/September recordsAugust production113.3 bcfd recordSupply has easedSeptember production113.3 bcfd recordSupply has easedLNG feedgasRisingSupports demandFreeport LNGIncreasing intakeBullish for gas demandUS weatherWarmer than normalSupports power demandKey riskProduction disruptionsTightens supply Price Action and Market Structure Natural gas has regained upward momentum after moving through a period of weaker pricing. The move toward $3.13/MMBtu places prices at their strongest level since late September and confirms that the market is responding to a tightening combination of supply and demand factors. The fourth consecutive daily advance is particularly important because it indicates that the rally is gaining momentum rather than being driven by a single temporary disruption. The next test for the market will be whether prices can hold above the recent breakout area as production and LNG demand evolve. US Production Is Falling US Lower 48 gas production has averaged approximately 111.7 bcfd so far in October, down from record levels of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September. The decline is relatively modest in percentage terms, but it is significant because the market is moving away from the exceptionally high production levels seen through late summer. Daily production has also continued to decline as recent force majeure events and other operational disruptions affect pipelines in Kentucky, Texas and West Virginia. If these disruptions persist or additional infrastructure issues emerge, available supply could tighten further. LNG Demand Provides Additional Support LNG demand is becoming an increasingly important source of support. Daily feedgas flows have increased as Freeport LNG in Texas ramps up gas intake following the return of a liquefaction train from maintenance. Higher LNG feedgas demand effectively redirects additional US natural gas toward export markets, reducing the amount of gas remaining available for domestic consumption and storage. The continuation of stronger LNG utilisation will therefore be an important bullish factor for the US gas market. Weather Outlook Turns Warmer Weather forecasts have also moved in a supportive direction. Above-average temperatures are expected across the western two-thirds of the United States through October 10, increasing the potential for continued cooling demand. Although the market is moving deeper into the shoulder season, warmer conditions can still generate meaningful electricity demand, particularly when temperatures remain above normal across major population and power-demand regions. Higher gas-fired power generation would provide another source of demand at a time when production is already easing. Supply and Infrastructure Risks The combination of lower production and pipeline disruptions creates a more sensitive supply environment. The US natural gas market has substantial production capacity, but short-term infrastructure disruptions can have an outsized regional impact. Force majeure events affecting pipelines in Kentucky, Texas and West Virginia demonstrate the importance of transportation availability alongside headline production figures. If pipeline restrictions persist while LNG feedgas and power-sector demand increase, the market could tighten more quickly than headline production figures suggest. Bullish Scenario Natural gas could extend its advance if: Lower 48 production continues declining. Pipeline disruptions persist. Freeport LNG continues increasing feedgas intake. LNG exports remain strong. Warmer weather extends beyond current forecasts. Gas-fired power generation increases. Storage injections remain below seasonal expectations. A sustained move above recent highs would reinforce the bullish technical structure and could attract additional momentum-driven buying. Bearish Scenario The downside scenario would emerge if: US production rebounds toward recent record levels. Pipeline disruptions are resolved quickly. Weather forecasts turn materially cooler. Power-sector gas demand declines. LNG feedgas demand weakens. Storage levels prove more comfortable than expected. A rapid recovery in production would be particularly important because US supply remains capable of responding strongly to higher prices. Natural Gas Price Outlook The near-term outlook has become more constructive as prices approach $3.13/MMBtu and production moves lower. The current rally has both technical and fundamental support. However, natural gas remains highly sensitive to weather forecasts, production changes and LNG flows. The ability to maintain prices above the recent breakout area will therefore be important. If production continues to decline while Freeport LNG increases utilisation and warmer weather supports power demand, the market has scope to extend the current rally. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook is tightening modestly. Average Lower 48 production of 111.7 bcfd is below the 113.3 bcfd records recorded in August and September, while pipeline disruptions are creating additional short-term uncertainty. The key question is whether the October decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a more persistent reduction in production. A continued decline would provide a stronger foundation for higher prices, particularly if LNG and power-sector demand remain firm. Demand Outlook Demand is currently becoming more supportive from two directions. LNG feedgas consumption is increasing as Freeport LNG returns a liquefaction train from maintenance, while warmer weather could increase gas-fired electricity generation. This creates a potentially favourable demand combination at a time when supply is moving lower. The LNG export market will remain especially important because stronger exports can absorb incremental US production and reduce the volume available for domestic storage. Louis Roche Analysis Natural gas is developing a more constructive near-term setup as three important factors move in the same direction: production is declining, LNG feedgas demand is increasing and weather forecasts are becoming warmer. The move toward $3.13/MMBtu is therefore more significant than a simple technical rebound. The most important development is the decline in Lower 48 production from the record 113.3 bcfd levels seen in August and September to around 111.7 bcfd in October. At the same time, infrastructure disruptions are creating additional uncertainty around available supply. On the demand side, Freeport LNG provides a clear source of incremental consumption, while warmer temperatures could support gas-fired power generation. The market remains weather-sensitive, so a reversal toward cooler forecasts could quickly reduce bullish momentum. However, if current conditions persist, the balance of risks has shifted toward higher prices. The next stage of the rally will depend on whether production continues to fall while LNG demand and power-sector consumption remain elevated. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: Lower 48 daily production. Pipeline and infrastructure disruptions. Freeport LNG feedgas flows. LNG export demand. US temperature forecasts. Gas-fired power generation. Storage expectations and injection levels. Whether natural gas can sustain prices above the recent breakout zone. Today Markets View Near term: Bullish while production declines and LNG/weather demand remains supportive. Medium term: Constructive, but highly dependent on production recovery and weather developments. Key level: The $3.13/MMBtu area is an important reference point following the latest four-session advance. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the natural gas rally as increasingly connected to the broader energy and US dollar environment. Stronger natural gas prices can influence US inflation expectations, particularly if the move extends across the wider energy complex. At the same time, changes in the US dollar can affect the international competitiveness of US LNG and the economics of global energy trade. For businesses with energy exposure, monitoring natural gas alongside the dollar, crude oil and global LNG flows provides a more complete view of the underlying risk environment. Currency Hedger Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 7, 2026

Platinum Prices Under Pressure as Yields and Oil Weigh on Precious Metals

Platinum is trading around $1,700 an ounce, close to two-month lows, as elevated Treasury yields and stronger oil prices weigh on the broader precious metals complex. Higher energy prices are keeping inflation concerns elevated, while persistent fiscal risks and increased debt issuance linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure are contributing to upward pressure on longer-term yields. At the same time, expectations for US monetary policy remain a key influence on platinum. Markets are pricing an approximately 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this month, following a weaker-than-expected labour market report. This is limiting the prospect of near-term relief for non-yielding precious metals. Platinum's longer-term fundamentals remain more balanced. The World Platinum Investment Council expects industrial demand to increase in 2026, supported partly by the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, although weaker automotive demand is expected to offset part of that growth. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactPlatinumAround $1,700/ozNear two-month lowsTreasury yieldsElevatedBearish for precious metalsOil pricesReboundingReinforces inflation concernsFed expectations~80% chance of no change this monthLimits near-term supportIndustrial demandForecast to rise 5% in 2026Structural supportAutomotive demandForecast to fall 4%Fundamental headwind2026 platinum balance265,000-ounce surplus projectedCaps upsideAI infrastructureRapid expansionLonger-term demand support Price Action and Market Structure Platinum remains under pressure near the $1,700 area as the combination of elevated yields and firm energy prices creates an unfavourable macroeconomic backdrop. The precious metals complex is particularly sensitive to real interest-rate expectations because platinum does not provide an income yield. When bond yields remain elevated, the opportunity cost of holding precious metals increases. The current weakness therefore reflects more than platinum-specific selling. It also reflects a broader adjustment in expectations around interest rates, inflation and the sustainability of higher government borrowing costs. A sustained recovery in platinum is likely to require either a decline in Treasury yields, a clearer shift toward monetary easing or renewed evidence of strengthening physical and industrial demand. Oil and Inflation Remain Important Macro Drivers Higher oil prices are adding another layer of pressure to precious metals. Persistent risks surrounding Middle Eastern energy supplies have pushed crude prices higher, increasing concerns that energy inflation could remain more persistent than previously expected. If oil remains elevated, central banks may have less flexibility to accelerate monetary easing. For platinum, this creates a difficult combination: higher energy costs can eventually support mining economics and industrial demand, but the immediate impact through inflation expectations and interest rates is negative. The direction of crude oil and Treasury yields therefore remains important for the next phase of platinum trading. Federal Reserve Outlook Markets are currently pricing roughly an 80% probability of no Federal Reserve rate change this month after a weaker-than-expected US labour market report. The labour-market weakness creates a potential argument for future easing, but the inflation backdrop remains a constraint. If inflation expectations remain elevated because of energy prices and fiscal pressures, the Federal Reserve may prefer to maintain restrictive policy for longer. That would keep Treasury yields elevated and could continue to weigh on platinum and other non-yielding metals. Conversely, a further deterioration in employment data could increase expectations for eventual rate cuts and provide a stronger catalyst for precious metals. Industrial Demand and AI Infrastructure Platinum's longer-term demand outlook contains an important structural positive. The World Platinum Investment Council expects industrial demand to rise by 5% in 2026, with part of the increase linked to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. The construction of data centres and associated power infrastructure requires significant quantities of industrial equipment and electrical components. Continued investment in this area could therefore create a supportive demand channel for platinum over time. This structural trend is important because it could help offset weakness in more traditional platinum-consuming sectors. Automotive Demand Remains a Headwind The main counterweight is the automotive sector. Automotive demand is expected to decline by approximately 4% in 2026, reflecting changes in vehicle production and the continuing evolution of powertrain technology. Platinum remains heavily connected to automotive applications, particularly emissions-control systems. A sustained decline in automotive demand therefore represents a significant constraint on overall consumption. The combination of stronger industrial demand and weaker automotive demand leaves the market fundamentally balanced rather than decisively bullish. Supply and Market Balance The projected 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026 remains one of the clearest fundamental obstacles to a sustained platinum rally. A surplus indicates that expected supply is exceeding demand, reducing the immediate need for buyers to compete for available metal. However, the size and persistence of the surplus will remain important. If industrial demand continues to outperform expectations while mine supply growth remains constrained, the projected surplus could narrow. This would create a more supportive backdrop for prices, particularly if investment demand also improves. Bullish Scenario Platinum could regain upward momentum if several supportive factors develop simultaneously: Treasury yields begin to decline. Expectations for future Federal Reserve easing increase. Oil prices retreat, reducing inflation concerns. Industrial demand exceeds current forecasts. AI infrastructure investment generates stronger platinum consumption. Automotive demand proves more resilient than currently expected. The projected 265,000-ounce surplus is reduced. A sustained move back above the $1,700 area would improve the technical picture and could encourage additional buying toward higher resistance levels. Bearish Scenario The downside case would strengthen if: Treasury yields remain elevated or move higher. Oil prices continue rising because of Middle Eastern supply risks. Inflation proves more persistent. The Federal Reserve maintains restrictive policy for longer. Automotive platinum demand declines more sharply. The projected market surplus remains intact. Investment demand remains weak. A failure to establish support around current levels could leave platinum vulnerable to another leg lower as macroeconomic pressure remains dominant. Platinum Price Outlook The immediate outlook remains cautious while platinum trades close to two-month lows. The $1,700 area is an important psychological reference point. Holding this zone and recovering above it would indicate that buyers are beginning to defend the current valuation. A sustained break below the recent low region, however, would leave the market exposed to further downside as high yields and a projected surplus continue to weigh on sentiment. The more constructive scenario would require platinum to regain momentum above nearby resistance while Treasury yields begin to soften. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains relatively comfortable in the near term, with the projected 2026 surplus suggesting that production should be sufficient to meet expected consumption. However, the market balance should be monitored closely. Platinum supply is sensitive to mining economics, operational conditions and investment decisions. A prolonged period of weak prices could eventually discourage supply growth. This creates the possibility that today's projected surplus becomes less significant if demand strengthens while supply growth remains limited. Demand Outlook Demand is becoming increasingly divided between traditional and emerging sectors. Automotive consumption is expected to decline by around 4% in 2026, creating a significant headwind. Industrial demand, however, is forecast to rise 5%, with AI infrastructure providing an increasingly important source of growth. This divergence means the longer-term platinum story is likely to depend increasingly on industrial applications rather than relying solely on the automotive sector. If AI-related infrastructure investment continues expanding rapidly, platinum could benefit from a broader and more diversified demand base over time. Louis Roche Analysis Platinum is currently being driven more by the macro environment than by its longer-term industrial story. The combination of elevated oil prices, high Treasury yields and expectations of limited near-term Federal Reserve easing is creating a difficult environment for precious metals. That pressure is keeping platinum close to two-month lows despite evidence of improving industrial demand. The key issue is whether the projected 265,000-ounce surplus becomes the defining fundamental feature of the market or whether stronger industrial consumption, particularly from AI infrastructure, gradually reduces the surplus. For the near term, I would remain cautious while yields stay elevated. A sustained decline in Treasury yields would be one of the clearest signals that the macro pressure on platinum is beginning to ease. Longer term, however, the growth of AI infrastructure provides an increasingly interesting structural demand theme. If automotive demand stabilises while industrial consumption continues to expand, platinum could eventually develop a more constructive fundamental balance. Coming Sessions Markets will continue to focus on: US interest-rate expectations and Federal Reserve communication. Treasury yield movements. Oil prices and Middle Eastern supply risks. Incoming US labour and inflation data. Evidence of changes in industrial platinum demand. Developments in automotive demand. The evolving 2026 supply-demand balance. Platinum's ability to establish support around the $1,700 area. Today Markets View Near term: Cautious while yields and oil remain elevated. Medium term: Mixed, with a projected surplus offset by stronger industrial demand. Long term: Increasingly constructive if AI infrastructure generates sustained industrial platinum consumption and the market surplus narrows. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the current platinum weakness primarily through the lens of US rates, inflation expectations and the US dollar environment. Higher Treasury yields and persistent energy inflation can continue to support the dollar and reduce demand for non-yielding precious metals. A future decline in yields, combined with expectations of easier Federal Reserve policy, would provide a more favourable environment for platinum and the broader metals complex. For businesses exposed to commodity prices, the interaction between platinum, energy markets and currency movements should remain an important consideration as the macroeconomic environment develops. Currency Hedger Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Softs

October 7, 2026

Soybeans Rebound on Brazil Planting Delays

Soybean futures climbed toward $13.1 per bushel, bouncing off from multi-week lows as slower planting in Brazil and signs of continued export demand lifted prices. About 7.3% of soybean crop in Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, had been planted as of Thursday, below 9% a year earlier, with consultancy AgRural estimating 2026/27 production at 182.7 million metric tons. The USDA has a higher forecast of 186 million tons, which would exceed last year’s record 180.5 million tons. On the demand side, an unnamed buyer purchased 104,000 tonnes of US soybeans, while US export inspections reached 3.99 million tonnes since the start of September, up from 3.05 million tonnes a year earlier. However, gains remained limited by expectations for a large US crop and weak Chinese demand. China’s soybean purchases are being constrained by high inventories, poor crushing margins and an additional 10% tariff on US soybeans, while private buyers continue to favor supplies from Brazil and Argentina.

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Energies

October 7, 2026

Gasoline Prices Rise as Gulf Storm Threatens Refinery Supply

US gasoline futures are extending their advance above $3.30 per gallon as a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico threatens to disrupt refinery operations and add further pressure to an already tight fuel market. The immediate concern is the concentration of US refining capacity along the Gulf Coast. Refineries in Gulf states account for approximately half of total US refining capacity of 18.2 million barrels per day, meaning even temporary operational disruptions could have a significant impact on gasoline availability. The wider energy market is also facing supply risks from continued Middle East attacks, Russian diesel-export restrictions and refinery disruptions, while China's reported suspension of some October fuel exports is adding to global refined-product constraints. Gasoline inventories are already running below their seasonal average, leaving the market more vulnerable to additional supply disruptions. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactUS gasolineAbove $3.30/gallonBullishPrice trendSecond consecutive session of gainsBullishUS refining capacity18.2 million barrels/dayKey supply factorGulf Coast refiningApproximately 50% of US capacityHigh disruption exposureGasoline inventories7% below five-year averageBullishRefinery utilisation92.5%Supportive but leaves outage sensitivityGulf of Mexico stormThreatens refinery operationsBullish riskMiddle EastContinued attacksBullish riskRussiaDiesel restrictions and refinery disruptionsBullishChinaSome October fuel exports reportedly suspendedBullishG7 reservesEmergency crude and diesel release plannedBearish/relief factorEIA outlookHigher 2026/2027 oil-price forecastsBullish Gasoline Price Momentum Strengthens US gasoline futures have moved above $3.30 per gallon, extending gains for a second consecutive session. The rally is being driven primarily by supply concerns rather than a sudden increase in demand. The developing Gulf of Mexico storm is particularly important because of the concentration of US refining infrastructure in the region. With approximately half of US refining capacity located in Gulf states, traders are increasingly pricing the possibility of reduced refinery operations, logistical disruption and tighter gasoline availability. The longer the market remains exposed to the weather threat, the greater the potential for a supply-risk premium. Gulf Coast Refinery Exposure The Gulf Coast represents the critical near-term supply risk. US refining capacity stands at approximately 18.2 million barrels per day, with around half located in Gulf states. A significant storm could affect refinery operations through direct facility disruption, power interruptions, workforce restrictions, marine transportation problems and reduced crude deliveries. Even if the actual loss of production is limited, the market can react ahead of physical shortages as refiners, distributors and traders adjust inventories in anticipation of potential disruption. This makes the storm one of the most important immediate catalysts for gasoline prices. Gasoline Inventories Remain Tight The US gasoline inventory position provides additional support. According to the EIA, gasoline inventories were approximately 7% below the five-year average as of September 25. That deficit is significant because it reduces the market's buffer against unexpected refinery outages. A well-supplied market could absorb a temporary reduction in refinery throughput relatively easily. A market already operating below its normal seasonal inventory level is much more sensitive. If the Gulf storm reduces refinery utilisation for an extended period, gasoline inventories could decline further and reinforce the bullish price trend. Refinery Utilisation Is Already High US refinery utilisation is currently around 92.5%. High utilisation indicates that refiners are processing substantial volumes of crude, but it also highlights the limited ability to compensate quickly for unexpected outages. If Gulf Coast facilities are forced to reduce operations, other refineries may have limited capacity to fully replace the lost production. The market could therefore experience a sharp increase in regional gasoline premiums even if the national reduction in output is relatively modest. Middle East Risks Remain Elevated Geopolitical risks continue to provide additional support to the energy complex. Continued attacks in the Middle East are keeping concerns over energy flows elevated despite an improvement in regional shipments. The immediate impact on US gasoline supply may be indirect, but any disruption to crude transportation or regional refined-product flows can increase global energy risk premiums. The market is therefore dealing with multiple potential sources of disruption simultaneously. Russia Adds Refined-Product Pressure Russia remains another important factor. Ongoing restrictions on diesel exports and disruptions to Russian refinery operations are reducing the availability of refined products on international markets. Although gasoline and diesel are different products, they compete for refinery capacity and crude feedstock. When diesel markets tighten, refiners may adjust production economics and product yields, potentially affecting gasoline availability and margins. The Russian supply situation therefore remains relevant to the wider refined-products complex. China Export Restrictions Tighten Global Supply China's reported suspension of some October fuel exports is another potentially supportive factor. China is an important participant in Asian refined-product markets, and reduced exports can tighten regional availability. The impact can extend beyond Asia as buyers compete for alternative supplies. If Chinese exports remain restricted while Russian refined-product availability is also constrained, global fuel markets could become increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern, US and other exporters. EIA Raises Oil-Price Forecasts The broader energy outlook is also becoming more constructive. The EIA has raised its oil-price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, citing rapidly falling global inventories and increasing supply risks. Falling crude inventories can support gasoline prices through higher feedstock costs, while tight refined-product inventories can create an additional refining-margin premium. The combination of both factors would provide a stronger foundation for gasoline prices than crude strength alone. G7 Emergency Reserves Provide a Counterweight The planned G7 release of emergency crude and diesel reserves provides an important counterweight to the bullish supply narrative. Additional emergency supplies could help reduce the impact of disruptions and provide temporary relief to fuel markets. However, the effectiveness of reserve releases will depend on their scale, timing and the duration of the underlying supply problems. If the Gulf storm causes only a short-lived disruption, reserve availability could help stabilise the market. If multiple supply disruptions persist simultaneously, however, the release may only partially offset the tightening effect. Bullish Scenario Gasoline prices could extend their advance if: The Gulf storm causes significant refinery outages. US refinery utilisation falls sharply. Gasoline inventories decline further below seasonal averages. Middle East attacks threaten energy transportation. Russian refinery disruptions continue. Russian diesel restrictions remain in place. China maintains restrictions on fuel exports. Crude oil inventories continue falling. The G7 reserve release proves insufficient to offset physical supply losses. Under this scenario, gasoline could develop a significant supply-risk premium. Bearish Scenario The rally could lose momentum if: The Gulf storm weakens before causing major refinery disruption. US refineries quickly return to normal operations. Gasoline inventories begin rebuilding. Middle East energy shipments remain stable. Russian refined-product supply improves. China resumes stronger fuel exports. The G7 reserve release provides meaningful additional supply. Higher fuel prices begin reducing demand. In this scenario, the current weather premium could unwind quickly. Gasoline Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains bullish but heavily dependent on the Gulf storm. Prices above $3.30 per gallon indicate that traders are already assigning a risk premium to potential refinery disruption. The most important confirmation would be a measurable reduction in Gulf Coast refinery operations combined with further inventory declines. If that occurs, gasoline prices could move sharply higher. If refinery operations remain largely unaffected, the market could give back part of its recent advance as the immediate weather risk fades. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming increasingly fragile. US gasoline inventories are already below the five-year average, while the refining system is operating at a relatively high 92.5% utilisation rate. At the international level, Russian refinery disruptions and export restrictions, Middle East risks and China's reported reduction in fuel exports are creating additional pressure. The G7 reserve release provides a potential source of relief, but it may not fully offset simultaneous disruptions across multiple regions. Demand Outlook The immediate market focus remains on supply rather than demand. Gasoline consumption could remain relatively resilient while prices are still manageable, but sustained increases could eventually encourage demand destruction. The critical question is whether supply losses outpace any reduction in consumption. If gasoline inventories continue declining despite high refinery utilisation, the market would be signalling that available supply is insufficient to comfortably meet demand. Louis Roche Analysis Gasoline is entering a sensitive phase because the market is already operating with inventories below normal seasonal levels. The Gulf Coast storm therefore represents more than a simple weather headline. With approximately half of US refining capacity located in Gulf states, a meaningful disruption could quickly affect gasoline availability across the wider US market. The 92.5% refinery-utilisation rate also matters. Refiners are already operating at relatively high levels, leaving less spare capacity to compensate for unexpected outages. At the same time, international refined-product markets are facing additional pressure from Russian restrictions, refinery disruptions, Middle East risks and China's reported export reductions. My view is that the near-term risk remains skewed to the upside, particularly if the Gulf storm causes a material reduction in refinery operations. However, gasoline prices are increasingly vulnerable to a sharp reversal if the storm passes without significant disruption. The planned G7 reserve release also provides an important potential source of supply relief. The key signal will be whether the physical inventory deficit widens or begins to narrow once the immediate weather risk passes. Coming Sessions Gasoline traders will be watching: The strength and path of the Gulf of Mexico storm. US Gulf Coast refinery operations. US gasoline inventory data. Refinery utilisation rates. Crude oil inventory developments. Middle East energy flows. Russian refinery operations and fuel-export restrictions. Chinese fuel-export policy. G7 emergency reserve releases. Gasoline demand and refinery margins. A combination of falling inventories and reduced refinery operations would strengthen the bullish case considerably. Conversely, stable refinery operations and a successful reserve release could ease the current supply premium. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a bullish near-term view on US gasoline while inventories remain below seasonal norms and Gulf Coast refinery risks remain elevated. The combination of a developing storm, high refinery utilisation, below-average gasoline inventories and international refined-product disruptions creates a supportive environment. The principal risk to the rally is that the Gulf storm fails to cause meaningful operational disruption. If that occurs, prices could quickly lose some of the weather-related premium. However, the underlying inventory and global refined-product picture remains supportive. Currency Hedger View For companies exposed to fuel purchases, transportation, logistics and international energy payments, gasoline prices are only one component of the overall cost equation. US dollar movements can materially affect the effective cost of dollar-denominated energy purchases for businesses operating outside the United States. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, energy prices, interest rates, central-bank policy and global macroeconomic developments, helping businesses assess currency exposure alongside changing commodity costs. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 7, 2026

Heating Oil Prices Rise as Refinery and Diesel Supply Risks Tighten the Market

US heating oil prices are extending their advance above $4.60 per gallon as renewed supply concerns add to an already tight refined-products market. The immediate risk is increasingly centred on the availability of diesel and middle distillates rather than crude supply alone. A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico could disrupt offshore oil activity and refinery operations, while US Gulf Coast refineries represent approximately half of the country's total refining capacity. At the same time, continued attacks in the Middle East, disruptions to Russian refining operations, extended Russian diesel-export restrictions and China's reported suspension of October fuel exports are adding to concerns over global refined-product availability. The combination of falling global inventories and tight diesel markets has also prompted the EIA to raise its oil-price forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactUS heating oilAbove $4.60/gallonBullishUS Gulf Coast refiningApproximately 50% of US refining capacitySupply-risk sensitiveUS refining capacityApproximately 18.2 million barrels/dayHigh disruption exposureGulf of Mexico stormDevelopingBullish riskMiddle EastOngoing attacks and energy-flow concernsBullishRussiaRefinery disruptions and diesel restrictionsBullishChinaReported suspension of October fuel exportsBullishGlobal inventoriesFalling rapidlyBullishDiesel marketIncreasingly tightBullishEIA outlookHigher 2026/2027 oil-price forecastsBullishUS diesel tax reliefTemporary relief through year-endDemand/supportive Heating Oil Price Momentum Strengthens Heating oil has moved above $4.60 per gallon, extending its recent gains as traders increasingly price the risk of tighter refined-product availability. The move reflects a combination of immediate weather risk and a broader deterioration in the global diesel supply outlook. Unlike crude oil, heating oil and diesel are highly dependent on refinery throughput, product inventories and regional logistics. Any disruption to refining capacity can therefore have a disproportionately large effect on prices. That sensitivity is particularly important with the US Gulf Coast facing potential storm disruption. Gulf Coast Refinery Risk The developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico is becoming an important near-term market risk. US Gulf states account for approximately 50% of total US refining capacity of around 18.2 million barrels per day. Even a temporary reduction in refinery operations could tighten supplies of diesel, heating oil and other middle distillates. The market does not necessarily require a prolonged shutdown to generate a price response. Traders can begin pricing the possibility of reduced refinery runs, transportation disruption and precautionary inventory accumulation before significant physical losses occur. If the storm strengthens or moves into a path that threatens major refining infrastructure, heating oil could receive another risk premium. Global Diesel Supply Is Tightening The heating-oil market is also being supported by increasingly tight global diesel fundamentals. Several supply disruptions are occurring simultaneously. Russia continues to face disruptions to its refining operations, while extended restrictions on diesel exports are limiting the amount of refined product reaching international markets. At the same time, China's reported suspension of October fuel exports could remove another important source of refined-product supply from the global market. These developments are significant because diesel is a globally traded commodity. Reduced exports from major suppliers can tighten availability well beyond their domestic markets. Middle East Risks Remain Elevated Continued attacks in the Middle East are also contributing to the risk premium across energy markets. Although regional shipments have increased, concerns remain over the security and reliability of energy flows. For heating oil, the impact is indirect but important. Any sustained disruption to crude or refined-product transportation can increase feedstock and freight costs while tightening regional inventories. The market is therefore monitoring not only actual supply losses but also the possibility of further disruptions. Falling Inventories Support Energy Prices The broader inventory picture is increasingly supportive. The EIA has raised its oil-price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, citing rapidly declining global inventories and tight diesel markets. Falling inventories reduce the buffer available to absorb unexpected supply disruptions. That makes weather events, refinery outages, geopolitical disruptions and export restrictions more significant than they would be in a well-supplied market. The current heating-oil rally is therefore occurring against a backdrop where the physical market has less capacity to absorb additional shocks. US Diesel Policy Provides Additional Support The Trump administration has also ordered temporary relief from certain diesel-tax payments and penalties associated with the use of dyed diesel on highways through the end of the year. The measure could provide some additional support to diesel demand by temporarily reducing certain costs and penalties. Although the policy does not directly solve the supply constraints facing the market, it adds another factor that could influence refined-product consumption during a period of already-tight inventories. The market will therefore need to assess whether stronger demand combines with constrained supply to further tighten balances. Bullish Scenario Heating oil could extend its advance if several supply risks develop simultaneously: The Gulf of Mexico storm disrupts major refining operations. US Gulf Coast refinery utilisation falls significantly. Global diesel inventories continue declining. Russian refinery disruptions persist. Russian diesel-export restrictions remain in place. China continues limiting fuel exports. Middle East attacks threaten energy transportation. Crude prices rise alongside tightening refined-product markets. Under this scenario, heating oil could attract an additional risk premium as traders compete for available middle-distillate supply. Bearish Scenario The rally could lose momentum if: The Gulf storm weakens without materially disrupting refineries. US refinery operations remain stable. Global diesel inventories begin rebuilding. Russian refined-product supply normalises. China resumes significant fuel exports. Middle East energy shipments remain uninterrupted. Higher prices begin reducing refined-product demand. A return to more stable refinery operations would remove one of the most immediate bullish catalysts. Heating Oil Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains bullish but highly event-driven. Prices above $4.60 indicate that the market is already responding to tightening supply expectations. The next significant move is likely to depend heavily on whether the Gulf storm creates an actual disruption to US refining capacity. A meaningful reduction in Gulf Coast refinery operations could quickly tighten the US heating-oil and diesel balance. Conversely, if the storm passes without significant operational disruption, traders could begin taking some of the weather premium out of prices. The broader global diesel situation, however, remains supportive and could limit the downside. Supply Outlook The supply outlook has become increasingly constrained. US refinery capacity remains vulnerable to weather-related disruption, while international refined-product markets are dealing with Russian refinery problems, export restrictions and reduced Chinese export availability. The key issue is that these supply risks are occurring while global inventories are already falling. That leaves less spare capacity in the system and increases the probability that even temporary disruptions will have a meaningful impact on prices. Demand Outlook Demand remains relatively firm, particularly for diesel and middle distillates. The temporary US diesel-tax relief could provide additional support to consumption through the end of the year. However, sustained prices above recent levels could eventually create demand pressure as transport, industrial and heating costs increase. For now, the market appears more focused on supply availability than demand destruction. Louis Roche Analysis Heating oil is becoming one of the more important indicators of stress within the wider refined-products market. The key distinction is that the current price strength is not being driven solely by crude oil. Refinery availability, diesel exports and inventories are becoming increasingly important. The Gulf Coast storm represents the immediate catalyst. With approximately half of US refining capacity located in the Gulf states, even a temporary disruption could have an outsized effect on heating oil and diesel availability. Beyond the US, the market is dealing with several simultaneous supply constraints: Russian refinery disruptions, extended diesel-export restrictions, China's reported reduction in October fuel exports and ongoing Middle East security risks. This combination creates a potentially fragile refined-products balance. My view is that the upside risk remains dominant in the near term, particularly if the Gulf storm results in meaningful refinery outages. The market could also remain supported if global inventories continue falling and diesel availability stays tight. The main risk to the bullish thesis is that the weather threat passes without significant disruption and refinery operations remain stable. In that case, some of the current risk premium could quickly unwind. Coming Sessions Heating-oil traders will be watching: The strength and path of the Gulf of Mexico storm. US Gulf Coast refinery operating status. US diesel and heating-oil inventories. Global refined-product inventory trends. Russian refinery operations and export restrictions. Chinese fuel-export policy. Middle East energy transportation. Crude oil price direction. Refinery margins and utilisation. The impact of temporary US diesel-tax relief on demand. The most important near-term signal will be whether the potential Gulf Coast disruption becomes a physical supply event. If it does, heating oil could accelerate higher. If it does not, the market will return its focus to the underlying global diesel balance, where falling inventories and restricted exports continue to provide support. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a bullish near-term view on heating oil as refined-product supply risks increase while global inventories decline. The combination of Gulf Coast refinery exposure, Russian refining disruptions, tighter diesel exports and Middle East uncertainty creates a supportive environment for heating oil. The market is particularly vulnerable to a further upside move if the developing Gulf storm disrupts US refining operations. However, prices are increasingly sensitive to headline risk, meaning a reduction in geopolitical or weather-related concerns could produce sharp reversals. Currency Hedger View For businesses exposed to energy imports, transportation costs and international fuel purchases, movements in both energy prices and currency markets can materially affect the final cost of refined products. Heating oil and diesel are closely linked to US dollar-denominated energy markets. Changes in the dollar can therefore amplify or offset movements in the underlying commodity price for international buyers and businesses operating outside the United States. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, energy prices, central-bank policy, macroeconomic conditions and international payment flows, helping businesses assess the broader currency environment surrounding international transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 7, 2026

Coffee Prices Extend Rally as Brazil Weather and Short Covering Support the Market

Coffee markets are extending their recent recovery, with arabica and robusta both moving higher as currency support, speculative positioning and weather risks provide a stronger near-term backdrop. Arabica has reached a 3.5-week high while robusta is trading around a six-week high, although the broader supply outlook remains a significant counterweight to the rally. Brazilian real strength is helping underpin coffee prices by reducing the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell into international markets, while heavily short positioning in robusta creates additional potential for short covering. At the same time, concerns surrounding the developing El Niño pattern are increasing uncertainty over Brazil's 2026/27 crop. The market therefore faces a clear conflict between improving near-term price momentum and expectations for abundant global supplies. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactArabicaDecember futures +11.90, +4.07%BullishRobustaNovember futures +62, +1.76%BullishArabica trend3.5-week highBullishRobusta trend6-week highBullishBrazilian realNear a 4.75-month highBullishRobusta fund positioning3,959 contracts net shortShort-covering potentialBrazil rainfall33.3 mm in Minas Gerais, 104% of averageBearishVietnam rainfallImproving soil moistureBearishICO 2025/26 production183.6 million bags, +4.4%BearishICO 2025/26 balance3 million-bag surplusBearishUSDA 2026/27 production189.7 million bags, +6%BearishICE arabica stocks260,654 bagsMixedICE robusta stocks5,398 lotsBearish Coffee Price Action Strengthens Coffee prices are building on a three-session advance, with December arabica futures rising 11.90 points, or 4.07%, while November robusta futures gained 62 points, or 1.76%. Arabica has moved to its highest level in approximately three and a half weeks, while robusta has reached a six-week high. The advance suggests that traders are beginning to place greater emphasis on weather risks, currency movements and speculative positioning despite the still-large global supply outlook. The Brazilian real is an important part of the current move. With the real trading near a 4.75-month high against the US dollar, Brazilian exporters face less incentive to accelerate dollar-denominated coffee sales. A stronger domestic currency can therefore reduce producer selling pressure and provide additional support to futures. Robusta Short Positioning Creates Rally Potential Speculative positioning is another important bullish factor. Commodity funds have built a substantial net-short position in robusta futures. The latest Commitment of Traders data showed funds increasing their net short position by 2,658 contracts to 3,959 contracts. That represents the largest net-short position in approximately 13 months. Such positioning creates the potential for a stronger short-covering move if prices continue to rise. Traders holding bearish positions may be forced to buy futures to reduce exposure if technical momentum strengthens or weather concerns intensify. This could amplify price gains even if the underlying fundamental balance remains relatively well supplied. El Niño Raises 2026/27 Brazil Crop Risk Weather is becoming increasingly important for the longer-term outlook. The developing El Niño pattern could delay rainfall across Brazil during September and October, a critical period for flowering. Any disruption to flowering could eventually affect fruit development and yields for the 2026/27 crop. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the emerging El Niño could become one of the strongest events in more than 75 years. Such a powerful climate pattern could produce significant swings in rainfall and temperatures across major coffee-producing regions. For coffee, the concern is not simply drought. Excessive rainfall, flooding, delayed flowering and temperature extremes can all affect production. If El Niño develops into a prolonged and disruptive pattern, the market could begin to price a larger weather premium into 2026/27 contracts. Brazil Weather Currently Provides a Counterweight For now, however, Brazilian growing conditions remain broadly supportive. Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica-producing region, received 33.3 mm of rainfall during the latest reported week, equivalent to 104% of its historical average. Adequate rainfall during the flowering period can improve crop development and potentially support the next harvest. This creates an important near-term contradiction for the market. Current rainfall is constructive for production, while the potential evolution of El Niño represents a longer-term risk. As a result, coffee prices may remain highly sensitive to changes in Brazilian weather forecasts over the coming weeks. Vietnam Crop Conditions Improve Vietnam is also contributing to the bearish side of the supply equation. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-producing region. Better moisture conditions should support cherry development and potentially improve production prospects. This is particularly important for robusta, where Vietnam remains the world's largest producer. Improving Vietnamese crop conditions combined with elevated exports could limit the upside in robusta unless speculative short covering becomes sufficiently strong to overwhelm the supply fundamentals. Global Coffee Supply Remains Large The longer-term supply outlook remains one of the largest obstacles facing the current rally. The International Coffee Organization estimates that 2025/26 global coffee production increased 4.4% year over year to a record 183.6 million bags. Consumption is projected at 180.6 million bags, down 0.9% year over year, leaving the global market with an estimated surplus of approximately 3 million bags. This represents the first global surplus in five years. The return to surplus conditions is important because it suggests that the market may have less fundamental justification for sustained price increases unless production risks begin to emerge in the next crop cycle. Brazil Production Forecast Remains High Brazil's production outlook is also substantial. Conab has raised its 2026 Brazil coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million previously. Arabica production is expected to increase 34.8% year over year to approximately 48.21 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The sharp increase in arabica production is particularly important because it could provide significant additional supply to the international market if weather conditions remain favourable. However, the market will increasingly focus on whether current crop expectations can survive the coming flowering and development periods. Brazilian Exports Continue to Add Supply Brazilian exports remain another bearish factor. Coffee exports reached a record 4.155 million bags in August, an increase of 31% year over year. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. Separate trade data showed Brazilian August coffee exports increasing 44.6% year over year to 206,618 metric tons, the strongest level in eight months. With Brazil's harvest moving through its final stages, continued export availability could keep physical supply flowing into international markets. This may restrict the upside in futures unless weather concerns begin to threaten the next crop. Vietnam Exports Accelerate Vietnam is providing another source of supply pressure. September coffee exports increased 53% year over year to 124,000 metric tons, while exports during January through September rose 16.2% to approximately 1.45 million metric tons. Vietnam's full-year 2025 coffee exports increased 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production is also expected to improve, with the 2025/26 Vietnamese crop forecast at approximately 1.76 million metric tons, up 6% year over year and the highest level in four years. The combination of improving production and strong export flows is particularly relevant for robusta, where Vietnam remains a dominant supplier. Coffee Inventories Send Mixed Signals Inventory trends are divided between the two major coffee markets. ICE arabica inventories previously fell to just 217,646 bags, the lowest level in approximately 27 years. Stocks have since recovered to around 260,654 bags, a two-month high. The low inventory base remains a structural source of support for arabica, even though the recent replenishment has reduced some of the immediate tightness. Robusta presents the opposite picture. ICE robusta inventories have risen to approximately 5,398 lots, the highest level in around 10 months. The divergence between low arabica stocks and rising robusta stocks helps explain why the two markets may continue to display different fundamental characteristics even while both benefit from broader speculative momentum. USDA Sees Record Global Production The USDA's 2026/27 outlook remains firmly on the bearish side of the longer-term balance. Global coffee production is forecast to rise 6%, or approximately 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags. Arabica production is expected to increase 12% year over year, while robusta production is projected to decline 0.7%. Global ending stocks are also forecast to increase by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. The USDA separately forecasts a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year over year. Therefore, the market needs to see evidence of weather-related crop deterioration before the longer-term supply outlook becomes decisively bullish. Bullish Scenario Coffee prices could extend their recovery if several factors align: El Niño becomes stronger and begins disrupting Brazilian flowering conditions. Brazilian rainfall becomes excessive or uneven during critical crop-development periods. The Brazilian real remains strong, limiting producer export selling. Robusta funds begin aggressively covering their large short position. ICE arabica inventories resume declining. Brazilian or Vietnamese export flows begin to slow. Weather risks spread across multiple major producing regions. Under this scenario, speculative positioning could accelerate the move as traders react to tightening forward supply expectations. Bearish Scenario The recovery could lose momentum if: Brazilian rainfall remains favourable through the flowering period. Vietnam's improving soil moisture translates into stronger production. Brazilian exports remain elevated. Vietnamese exports continue expanding. ICE robusta inventories remain high. Global production continues toward the USDA's record forecast. The global surplus persists into the next crop cycle. In this scenario, the current rally would increasingly appear to be a technical and positioning-driven recovery rather than the beginning of a sustained structural bull market. Coffee Price Outlook The near-term bias has turned more constructive after the strong three-session advance. Arabica has the stronger fundamental support because of historically low inventory levels and the possibility of weather-related disruption to Brazil's next crop. Robusta has greater potential for sharp short-term upside because of the unusually large speculative short position. However, the broader price outlook remains dependent on whether weather risks can overcome the substantial supply expected from Brazil and Vietnam. The next phase of the rally will therefore require confirmation through either worsening weather or stronger evidence of declining physical availability. Supply Outlook Global supply remains abundant for the current season, with the ICO identifying a surplus and the USDA forecasting another record production year ahead. Brazil is expected to deliver a substantially larger arabica crop, while Vietnam is showing improving production and export conditions. The major supply risk is therefore shifting from the current harvest toward the development of the 2026/27 crop. If El Niño becomes sufficiently disruptive to reduce flowering or yields, current production forecasts could be revised lower. Demand Outlook Demand remains relatively less supportive than supply. The ICO expects 2025/26 consumption to decline 0.9% year over year to 180.6 million bags, leaving the market in surplus. For prices to sustain a larger recovery, demand would ideally need to strengthen at the same time that supply risks increase. Otherwise, rising production and inventories could eventually cap the upside. Louis Roche Analysis Coffee has moved into a more interesting phase because the market is balancing two very different stories. The immediate supply picture remains bearish. Brazil and Vietnam are producing and exporting substantial volumes, the ICO sees a surplus, and the USDA expects another record global crop in 2026/27. But markets trade future expectations, not simply current production. The developing El Niño pattern is therefore becoming increasingly important. If the weather pattern begins to materially disrupt Brazilian flowering, the market could rapidly shift from focusing on surplus inventories to pricing a potential reduction in the next crop. The Brazilian real is also important. Continued strength in the real reduces producer selling pressure, while the exceptionally large robusta short position leaves room for a sharp technical rally if prices continue higher. My view is that coffee remains fundamentally mixed but increasingly sensitive to upside weather risk. Arabica has the stronger structural foundation because of historically low inventories, while robusta has greater potential for a rapid short-covering move. The key question for the coming weeks is whether weather risk becomes sufficiently credible to challenge the current record-production forecasts. Coming Sessions Coffee traders will be watching: Brazilian rainfall and flowering conditions. The evolution and intensity of El Niño. The Brazilian real and its effect on producer selling. Brazilian export volumes. Vietnamese production and export data. ICE arabica and robusta inventory trends. Changes in speculative positioning. Signs of improving or weakening global consumption. Revisions to 2026/27 production forecasts. A continued rise in prices accompanied by falling arabica inventories and increasing weather concerns would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, stable Brazilian weather, strong exports and rising inventories would make the recent rally increasingly vulnerable to a reversal. Today Markets View Today Markets sees coffee as cautiously bullish in the near term, but with significant fundamental resistance overhead. The current rally is being supported by Brazilian real strength, short-covering potential and growing concern over the impact of El Niño on the 2026/27 crop. However, record global production expectations, strong Brazilian exports and improving Vietnamese conditions remain important bearish counterweights. The market is therefore entering a period where weather developments could become more important than current supply figures. Currency Hedger View For international coffee buyers, exporters and businesses exposed to Brazil and other major producing markets, currency movements remain an important part of the overall price equation. A stronger Brazilian real can reduce producer willingness to sell coffee internationally, while changes in the US dollar can influence the effective cost of coffee for international buyers. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, commodity prices, central-bank policy, macroeconomic conditions and producer/exporter flows to help businesses assess the broader currency environment surrounding international transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 7, 2026

Cocoa Prices Retreat as Inventories Rise Despite Growing West African Crop Risks

Cocoa prices are under renewed pressure as rising exchange inventories and evidence of softer chocolate demand outweigh near-term concerns over weather disruption in West Africa. December New York cocoa is trading around $5,690 per metric ton, while December London cocoa is near £4,230 per ton, after both contracts came under significant selling pressure. The decline follows a sharp reversal from recent two-week highs and highlights the market's increasingly divided fundamental picture. Near-term supply remains abundant, particularly from the Ivory Coast, while medium-term risks are becoming more supportive as early assessments point to weaker West African production, adverse weather and potential El Niño disruption. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorCurrent PositionDecember New York CocoaLower 2.85%December London CocoaLower 3.45%ICE Cocoa Inventories3.539 million bagsInventory Position2.25-year highIvory Coast 2025/26 Shipments2.18 MMTIvory Coast Shipment Growth+19.8% YoYIvory Coast 2025/26 Harvest2.06 MMTIvory Coast Harvest Growth+30% YoYIvory Coast 2026/27 Early Estimate1.8 MMTGhana 2026/27 Estimate650,000 MTGhana 2025/26 Production750,000 MTStoneX 2026/27 Global Surplus25,000 MTTransgraph 2026/27 Surplus80,000 MT Cocoa Prices Reverse Lower Cocoa futures are facing renewed selling pressure after recently reaching two-week highs. December New York cocoa has fallen approximately 2.85%, while December London cocoa has declined around 3.45%. The immediate catalyst is the continued increase in ICE inventories, which have climbed to 3,538,981 bags, the highest level in approximately 2.25 years. Rising exchange stocks are an important bearish signal because they indicate that readily available cocoa supplies are increasing at a time when demand is being questioned. The market therefore remains focused on whether the inventory build represents a temporary accumulation ahead of stronger demand or evidence of a more persistent supply-demand imbalance. ICE Inventories Reach a 2.25-Year High The rise in ICE inventories is currently one of the clearest bearish factors in the market. Stocks have reached approximately 3.54 million bags, placing exchange inventories at their highest level in 2.25 years. The increase is significant because cocoa prices have previously benefited from tight inventories and concerns over physical availability. A sustained inventory build would weaken that scarcity premium. For the bullish case to regain control, traders will need to see evidence that inventories are beginning to stabilise or decline, particularly as the market progresses through the new cocoa season. Cargill Signals Pressure on Cocoa Demand Demand concerns are also becoming more important. Cargill reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa for the quarter ending August 31, suggesting that higher cocoa costs have been difficult to pass through fully to customers. This is significant for the market because extremely high cocoa prices can eventually reduce consumption, encourage manufacturers to reformulate products or pressure chocolate margins. The issue is no longer simply whether cocoa is available. Traders are increasingly assessing whether consumers and chocolate manufacturers are willing and able to absorb elevated prices. Ivory Coast Supply Remains Abundant The Ivory Coast continues to provide substantial supply to the international market. Cumulative shipments reached approximately 2.18 million metric tons during the current international cocoa marketing period, representing an increase of approximately 19.8% from the comparable period a year earlier. The scale of the increase demonstrates how much cocoa has entered the global supply chain from the world's largest producer. The Ivory Coast regulator also reported that the country harvested approximately 2.06 million metric tons during the 2025/26 season, up approximately 30% from 1.58 million tons the previous year. This exceptional increase is one of the primary reasons cocoa prices have struggled to maintain previous highs. Weather Disruption Provides Short-Term Support The supply picture is not entirely bearish. Heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast has reportedly damaged roads and bridges, disrupting transportation and slowing deliveries to ports. This creates a temporary supply constraint and helped cocoa prices recover toward two-week highs before the latest inventory-driven sell-off. The key question is whether these logistical problems represent a temporary disruption or develop into a broader threat to crop quality and export volumes. For now, the market appears to be treating the issue as a short-term disruption rather than a structural supply shortage. 2026/27 Ivory Coast Crop Faces Greater Risks The medium-term supply outlook is considerably less comfortable. Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop are pointing toward weaker production, with below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development. Initial estimates put the upcoming crop at approximately 1.8 million metric tons, around 18% below the roughly 2.2 million tons produced in 2025/26. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine are also raising concerns about crop quality, while increased black pod disease could further reduce usable production. This creates an important distinction for the cocoa market: current supply is abundant, but future supply may become considerably tighter. El Niño Adds Medium-Term Risk The potential return of a strong El Niño pattern is becoming increasingly important for cocoa. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. For West Africa, El Niño typically increases the risk of warmer and drier conditions. For cocoa trees, this can mean: lower soil moisture; increased plant stress; reduced pod development; lower yields; greater vulnerability during critical growing periods; and potential deterioration in bean quality. If these conditions develop as expected, the current supply surplus could narrow considerably over the next crop cycle. Ghana Production Outlook Weakens Ghana provides another bullish medium-term signal. The country's Cocoa Board estimates that 2026/27 production could fall to around 650,000 metric tons, approximately 13% below the 750,000 tons expected for the previous crop year. COCOBOD has also indicated that production could potentially fall into a much lower range of 450,000 to 550,000 metric tons, reflecting the effects of swollen shoot disease, ageing farms and adverse weather risks associated with El Niño. However, current Ghanaian production remains strong. The 2025/26 season is expected to finish around 750,000 metric tons, up approximately 25.6% from 597,000 tons in 2024/25. This again highlights the difference between the current supply picture and the emerging 2026/27 outlook. Global Surplus Estimates Are Narrowing The medium-term balance is becoming less bearish. StoneX has reduced its estimate for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to only 25,000 metric tons, down sharply from its previous estimate of 149,000 tons. Transgraph Consulting has also projected that the global surplus could shrink to approximately 80,000 metric tons, compared with 415,000 tons in 2025/26. The consultancy expects global production to decline to approximately 4.87 million metric tons in 2026/27 from 5.11 million tons in 2025/26. These forecasts indicate that the current inventory surplus may not necessarily translate into another year of abundant supply. Cocoa Demand Remains Mixed Demand indicators remain divided geographically. European cocoa grindings declined approximately 4.6% year-on-year in Q2 to 316,366 metric tons, marking the lowest Q2 level in six years. That is a significant warning signal for consumption, particularly because the decline was considerably larger than expectations. North American demand, however, was considerably stronger. North American cocoa grindings increased approximately 7.7% year-on-year to 109,659 metric tons, substantially exceeding expectations for a decline. Asian demand was even stronger, with Q2 grindings increasing approximately 25% year-on-year to 224,646 metric tons. The global demand picture is therefore not uniformly weak. Europe is showing clear signs of pressure, while North America and Asia are providing meaningful offsets. Bullish Scenario The bullish case strengthens if medium-term supply risks begin to dominate the market. Key bullish factors include: weaker 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop prospects; Ghana production falling; strong El Niño conditions; further black pod disease; continued rainfall-related logistical disruption; declining global production; narrowing global surplus estimates; and stronger Asian and North American grindings. A sustained reduction in ICE inventories would provide particularly strong confirmation that the market is moving toward tighter physical conditions. If prices regain recent highs, the market could begin pricing the 2026/27 supply risks more aggressively. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario remains dominant if inventories continue to rise and demand weakens further. The principal risks are: ICE stocks remaining at multi-year highs; continued strong Ivory Coast shipments; the 30% increase in Ivory Coast 2025/26 production; weak European grindings; consumers resisting high chocolate prices; processors struggling to pass costs through; further evidence of subdued chocolate consumption; and continued availability of West African cocoa. A sustained move below recent lows would reinforce the view that the market is prioritising current physical abundance over future crop risks. Cocoa Price Outlook The near-term cocoa outlook remains bearish to neutral, while the medium-term picture is becoming increasingly balanced. The immediate supply situation is comfortable, with Ivory Coast production and shipments running substantially ahead of the previous year and ICE inventories at a 2.25-year high. However, the market is beginning to price a very different 2026/27 environment. If Ivory Coast and Ghana production declines as early estimates suggest, and if El Niño damages West African growing conditions, the current surplus could narrow rapidly. The key question is therefore when the market transitions from pricing current abundance to pricing future scarcity. Supply Outlook Near-term supply remains the major bearish influence. Ivory Coast production has been exceptionally strong, while shipments are running almost 20% above the previous year. However, early indications for the next crop are significantly weaker. The combination of below-average cherelle formation, poor pod development, disease risks, ageing farms and potential El Niño-related weather stress could reduce West African production considerably. The supply outlook is therefore shifting from abundant current availability toward increased medium-term uncertainty. Demand Outlook Demand remains the biggest uncertainty. European consumption is clearly under pressure, while Cargill's reported cocoa mark-to-market losses suggest processors are struggling with elevated input costs. However, North American and Asian grindings are providing meaningful support. If high cocoa prices continue to filter through to retail products, consumer resistance could increase. Conversely, if manufacturers successfully adjust pricing and demand stabilises, the market could absorb the current inventory overhang more rapidly. Louis Roche Analysis Cocoa remains one of the clearest examples of a market where current fundamentals and future fundamentals are moving in opposite directions. The immediate picture is bearish. ICE inventories are at a 2.25-year high, Ivory Coast shipments are up almost 20%, and the country produced roughly 30% more cocoa during the latest season. Demand is also showing signs of stress, particularly in Europe, while processor margins are being squeezed by historically high cocoa costs. But looking forward, the picture becomes much more constructive. Early assessments of the next Ivory Coast crop are significantly weaker, Ghana production is expected to decline, disease remains a concern and a strong El Niño could create substantial weather stress across West Africa. The market therefore needs to determine whether today's abundant inventories are sufficient to bridge the potential supply deficit developing into the next crop cycle. For now, inventory levels and current West African shipments remain the dominant price drivers. A sustained decline in ICE stocks would be the clearest signal that the market is beginning to transition toward the tighter medium-term balance. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: ICE cocoa inventory movements; Ivory Coast port arrivals and shipments; rainfall and growing conditions across West Africa; early development of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop; Ghana crop estimates; El Niño developments; black pod disease reports; European, North American and Asian grindings; processor margins and chocolate pricing; and technical price action following the recent sharp decline. The next major move will likely depend on whether inventory growth continues or begins to reverse. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a bearish near-term but increasingly constructive medium-term view on cocoa. The current market remains well supplied, with record-level inventories and strong Ivory Coast production weighing on prices. However, the supply outlook for the next crop is becoming substantially less comfortable. Lower Ghana production, weaker early Ivory Coast crop development and the potential impact of El Niño could significantly tighten the global balance. The key signal to watch is the direction of ICE inventories. Continued increases would reinforce the bearish case, while a sustained inventory decline would provide early confirmation that the market is transitioning toward tighter supply. Currency Hedger View Cocoa is priced in global commodity markets, making currency movements an important secondary factor for producers, processors, traders and international buyers. Movements in the US dollar can influence the effective cost of cocoa for buyers operating in other currencies, while changes in West African currencies can influence producer economics and export competitiveness. For chocolate manufacturers and cocoa businesses with international purchasing obligations, currency volatility can therefore compound the impact of already elevated commodity prices. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between foreign exchange, commodities, interest rates, geopolitics and global trade flows to help businesses assess currency exposure around international transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 7, 2026

Cotton Prices Firm as Strong US Exports Offset Slower Crop Conditions

Cotton prices are holding a firmer tone as strong US export performance provides support, while the domestic crop moves deeper into harvest with condition ratings continuing to deteriorate. The combination of a weaker US dollar, modestly higher crude oil prices and exceptionally strong August cotton exports is creating a constructive backdrop for prices. However, improving harvest progress and weaker crop-quality indicators remain important counterweights as the market assesses available supply. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorCurrent PositionOctober 2026 Cotton77.48¢/lbDecember 2026 Cotton81.21¢/lbMarch 2027 Cotton84.17¢/lbAugust US Exports917,974 balesExport Growth YoY+42.84%Export Comparison3-year highUS Bolls Open74%US Harvest Progress23%Harvest vs Normal2 pts aheadGood/Excellent Rating33%Brugler500 Index290ICE Certified Stocks22,191 balesCotlook A Index89.35¢/lbAdjusted World Price65.16¢/lb Cotton Futures Maintain Upward Momentum Cotton futures are trading higher across the curve, with October futures around 77.48 cents per pound, December near 81.21 cents, and March around 84.17 cents. The forward structure remains constructive, with prices progressively higher across the contracts. This suggests the market continues to place value on future availability and export demand rather than focusing solely on the immediate harvest supply. The move is also occurring alongside a softer US dollar and firmer crude oil prices. Both factors can provide support to commodity markets by improving US export competitiveness and maintaining broader inflation-linked commodity interest. US Cotton Exports Provide Strong Demand Signal One of the strongest features of the current cotton market is US export performance. August Census data show 917,974 bales of cotton exports, representing an increase of 42.84% from a year earlier and the highest August export volume in three years. Although shipments were approximately 20.91% below July, the year-on-year comparison remains particularly encouraging. Strong exports indicate that international buyers continue to absorb significant quantities of US cotton. This provides an important demand-side foundation as the market evaluates the size and quality of the incoming US crop. If export demand remains elevated through the coming months, it could help absorb new-crop supplies and limit downside pressure on futures. Harvest Progress Moves Ahead of Normal The US crop is continuing to progress through harvest. Approximately 74% of the crop has opened its bolls, while harvest is around 23% complete. Harvest progress is currently 2 percentage points ahead of normal, meaning the physical supply pipeline is beginning to improve despite weaker crop condition readings. The faster harvest pace is potentially bearish from a short-term supply perspective because additional cotton will become available to merchants and exporters. However, the impact is being partly offset by strong export demand. Crop Conditions Continue to Deteriorate US cotton crop conditions remain a concern. The good-to-excellent rating has fallen to 33%, down another two percentage points. The Brugler500 index has also declined by four points to 290. The deterioration does not necessarily translate into an immediate supply shortage, particularly with harvest already progressing ahead of normal. However, continued weakening of crop conditions can influence final yields, quality and the amount of cotton ultimately available for export. The market will therefore be watching harvest results closely rather than relying solely on current condition ratings. Physical Market Indicators Physical cotton indicators remain supportive. The Seam reported sales of 423 bales at an average of 76.83 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index has recovered to 89.35 cents, while ICE certified stocks have declined slightly to 22,191 bales. The relatively low level of certified stocks remains a factor worth monitoring. Although certified inventories represent only a portion of total available cotton, changes in exchange stocks can influence futures-market sentiment and perceptions of nearby availability. The Adjusted World Price is currently around 65.16 cents per pound, following a decline of 93 points. Crude Oil and the US Dollar The broader commodity environment is also providing some support. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, while the US dollar index has weakened. A softer dollar can improve the international competitiveness of US cotton by reducing the effective cost for overseas buyers using other currencies. Higher crude oil prices can also support cotton indirectly through broader commodity-market sentiment and the economics of synthetic fibre alternatives. The relationship is not linear, but the current combination is generally more supportive for cotton than a stronger dollar and sharply weaker energy prices would be. Bullish Scenario The bullish case strengthens if strong export demand continues while US crop quality remains under pressure. Key bullish factors include: US exports remaining significantly above last year's levels; continued weakness in the US dollar; firm crude oil prices; declining ICE certified stocks; further deterioration in crop conditions; stronger international textile demand; and evidence that final US production will be below current expectations. A sustained move above the 81-cent area in December cotton would strengthen the technical picture and could bring higher resistance levels into focus. Bearish Scenario The main bearish risk is an increase in physical supply as the US harvest accelerates. Harvest is already running ahead of normal, and continued rapid field progress could increase availability at a time when the market is still dealing with substantial global production. The demand side would also become a concern if US export activity begins to slow following the exceptionally strong August performance. A stronger US dollar would provide another potential headwind by reducing the competitiveness of US-origin cotton. Failure to hold the recent support structure could therefore encourage a deeper correction. Cotton Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, with December cotton trading around 81.21 cents per pound. The combination of strong exports, a softer dollar and declining crop-condition indicators provides a supportive backdrop. However, the market must absorb the increasing physical availability created by the advancing harvest. The next important test is whether December cotton can establish sustained momentum above the 81-cent area. A successful break could open the way toward higher resistance, while rejection around that level would leave the market vulnerable to consolidation. Supply Outlook US supply availability is increasing as harvest progresses, with 23% of the crop already harvested. The fact that harvest is two percentage points ahead of normal reduces some immediate supply concerns. However, the final size and quality of the crop remain uncertain because condition ratings continue to decline. The market will therefore transition from crop-condition estimates toward actual harvested yields and quality data. This could create greater price volatility if realised production differs materially from expectations. Demand Outlook Demand currently represents one of the strongest elements of the cotton market. August US exports of 917,974 bales were the highest for the month in three years and more than 40% above the previous year's level. The key question is whether this strength can continue. If international buyers maintain strong demand for US cotton, the market should be able to absorb additional harvest supplies relatively effectively. If exports weaken sharply, however, the combination of improving harvest availability and softer demand could quickly increase pressure on prices. Louis Roche Analysis Cotton is currently balancing a strong export story against increasing physical availability from the US harvest. The 42.84% year-on-year increase in August exports is the clearest bullish signal in the current market. It shows that international demand for US cotton remains substantial and gives the market a strong demand foundation. At the same time, harvest is progressing ahead of normal, meaning the supply side is becoming more accessible. This prevents the market from becoming structurally tight simply because crop conditions have deteriorated. The decline to 33% good/excellent and the Brugler500 reading of 290 remain important because they raise questions about final yield and quality. The market will increasingly need confirmation from actual harvested production. For now, the structure remains constructive above the 81-cent area in December cotton, but the next significant move will likely depend on whether strong export demand continues at a pace capable of absorbing new-crop supplies. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: US cotton export sales and shipment data; harvest progress; harvested yields and quality; crop-condition developments; ICE certified stocks; Cotlook A and Adjusted World Price movements; US dollar direction; crude oil prices; global textile demand; and technical price action around December cotton near 81 cents. The market is likely to become increasingly sensitive to the balance between strong export demand and rising physical availability as the US harvest advances. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a cautiously bullish view on cotton while export demand remains strong and December futures hold above the 81-cent region. The exceptional August export performance provides a meaningful demand cushion, while weaker crop conditions create uncertainty around final production and quality. The main risk to the bullish outlook is a rapid increase in available US supplies as harvest progresses. A combination of accelerating harvest and weakening export demand would shift the balance toward the bears. For now, the demand signal remains strong enough to keep the broader structure constructive. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain important for cotton because the US is a major exporter and international buyers purchase cotton in a global marketplace. A weaker US dollar can improve the competitiveness of US cotton for overseas buyers, while a stronger dollar can increase the effective cost of US-origin supplies. For merchants, exporters and textile businesses with international transactions, movements in USD exchange rates can therefore have a direct impact on procurement costs, export revenues and operating margins. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between foreign exchange, commodities, interest rates and global macroeconomic conditions to help businesses manage currency exposure around international transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 7, 2026

Sugar Prices Gain as Brazil Rains Disrupt Cane Crushing

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH27) closed up +0.09 (+0.43%) on Tuesday, and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ26) closed up +8.90 (+1.63%). Sugar prices have rallied sharply over the past week, with NY sugar posting a 19-month nearest-futures high on Tuesday and London sugar posting a 7-week high.  Ongoing rains in Brazil’s Center-South sugar-growing region have slowed sugar harvesting and are disrupting cane crushing at Brazil’s sugar mills, curbing supplies.  Sugar prices also have support from a stronger Brazilian real (^USDBRL).  The real climbed to a 4.75-month high against the dollar on Tuesday, discouraging export sales from Brazil’s sugar producers. The outlook for a global deficit is also supporting sugar prices.  On September 1, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT versus a +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  Meanwhile, the Thai Sugar Millers Corp on September 7 projected that 2026/27 Thailand sugar production could fall -17% y/y to 10 MMT.  Thailand is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter.  Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are also bullish for sugar prices.  A super El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  The US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,000 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, Czarnikow on August 14 predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. India’s Meteorological Department reported last Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 12.6% below normal as of September 30, the weakest in 11 years. India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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October 7, 2026

Gold Pulls Back as Oil Rebound Revives Inflation and Rate Risks

Gold prices are easing toward $4,150 an ounce as renewed strength in oil prices raises concerns about inflation and the potential for interest rates to remain elevated for longer. The latest move comes as escalating risks to Middle East energy supplies support crude oil, while US Treasury yields remain elevated amid persistent inflation concerns, fiscal pressures and heavy AI-related debt issuance. At the same time, expectations for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged this month are providing an important counterweight to the pressure from higher yields. The gold market is therefore being pulled between two competing forces: a renewed inflation and yield threat on one side, and expectations for a Federal Reserve pause following weaker employment data on the other. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorCurrent PositionGoldNear $4,150/ozImmediate DirectionLowerOilRecoveringUS Treasury YieldsElevatedFed Rate Expectations~80% probability of no changeKey Macro DriverInflation and interest-rate expectationsKey Geopolitical DriverMiddle East energy-supply risk Gold Price Action Gold is retreating toward $4,150 per ounce, surrendering part of its recent gains as investors reassess the implications of higher energy prices. The recovery in crude oil is particularly important because sustained increases in energy costs can feed directly into inflation expectations. That can reduce the urgency for central banks to lower interest rates and increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. The current pullback therefore appears to be more closely connected to the interest-rate and inflation environment than to a deterioration in the longer-term demand case for precious metals. Oil Prices Reintroduce Inflation Risk Oil prices are recovering as geopolitical risks around Middle Eastern energy supplies intensify. In particular, increased attacks involving tankers around the Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns about the security of one of the world's most important energy routes. Continued clashes involving Saudi forces and the Houthis are adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty. For gold, the significance extends beyond the direct geopolitical risk. A sustained oil-price increase can raise transportation and production costs throughout the global economy, potentially slowing the decline in inflation. If markets begin to expect higher inflation for longer, interest-rate expectations can shift accordingly. That creates a potentially challenging environment for gold despite its traditional safe-haven characteristics. Treasury Yields Remain a Major Headwind US Treasury yields remain elevated, providing an important source of pressure for gold. Higher yields increase the relative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets compared with gold, which does not generate an income stream. The market is also dealing with concerns surrounding fiscal risks and increased debt issuance associated with the rapidly expanding AI investment cycle. If Treasury yields remain elevated, gold may struggle to sustain strong upside momentum unless safe-haven demand or expectations for lower policy rates become sufficiently strong to offset the yield disadvantage. Federal Reserve Expectations Provide Support The Federal Reserve remains central to the next major move in gold. Markets are currently pricing in approximately an 80% probability that US interest rates remain unchanged this month. That expectation has been reinforced by weaker-than-expected employment growth in September and downward revisions to payroll figures for the preceding two months. A softer labour market can eventually strengthen the case for monetary easing. If investors begin to anticipate rate cuts more aggressively, Treasury yields could decline and provide renewed support for gold. The next major signal will come from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which should provide additional insight into policymakers' assessment of inflation, employment and the appropriate path for interest rates. Inflation Versus Monetary Easing Gold is currently caught between two opposing macroeconomic forces. Higher oil prices increase inflation risks and can keep yields elevated. Weaker employment growth increases the possibility that the Federal Reserve will eventually need to provide greater monetary support. The direction of Treasury yields may ultimately determine which force dominates. If inflation concerns remain stronger than labour-market weakness, yields could stay elevated and limit gold's upside. If employment weakness becomes the dominant concern and markets increase expectations for future rate cuts, gold could regain momentum. Bullish Scenario The bullish case strengthens if: US employment weakness continues; Treasury yields begin to decline; markets increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts; Middle East tensions intensify; oil-market disruption becomes more significant; central-bank demand for gold remains firm; and investors increase defensive allocations. A sustained break back above recent highs would signal that the broader bullish structure is regaining momentum. Gold could also benefit from a combination of falling real yields and renewed geopolitical demand for safe-haven assets. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would become more credible if Treasury yields continue to rise while inflation expectations remain elevated. Higher energy prices could delay monetary easing rather than trigger immediate rate cuts, particularly if policymakers remain concerned that inflation is proving persistent. A stronger US dollar would add another layer of pressure by making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Failure to hold the $4,150 area would therefore increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase, particularly if incoming US economic data reinforces the case for higher-for-longer interest rates. Gold Price Outlook The short-term outlook is neutral to cautiously bearish while gold remains under pressure from elevated Treasury yields and recovering oil prices. The $4,150 region is an important near-term area to monitor. Holding this level could allow buyers to stabilise the market and rebuild upside momentum. A sustained move below it would increase the probability of a deeper correction. Conversely, if Treasury yields begin to fall and markets increase expectations for Federal Reserve easing, gold could quickly regain its bullish momentum. The longer-term trend remains dependent on the interaction between real yields, central-bank policy, geopolitical risk and investor demand for safe-haven assets. Supply Outlook Gold supply is less responsive to short-term price changes than most industrial commodities, meaning the immediate direction of the market is likely to be determined primarily by investment demand and macroeconomic conditions. Mine production provides the underlying physical supply base, while recycling can become more significant when prices remain elevated. For the coming sessions, however, supply is unlikely to be the dominant driver. Monetary policy, Treasury yields and geopolitical developments should have considerably greater influence on price discovery. Demand Outlook Investment demand remains the key variable. Gold can attract capital when investors seek protection against geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal instability, currency risks and falling real interest rates. The current environment contains several of those characteristics, but elevated Treasury yields are creating competition from fixed-income assets. The market therefore needs either a meaningful decline in yields or a significant increase in safe-haven demand to generate another sustained leg higher. Louis Roche Analysis Gold's current pullback needs to be viewed within the broader macroeconomic picture rather than as a fundamental deterioration in the precious-metal market. The immediate problem for gold is the combination of higher oil prices and elevated Treasury yields. If the oil rebound persists, inflation expectations may remain sticky, reducing the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. However, the employment data are moving in the opposite direction. Weaker job growth and downward payroll revisions provide the Federal Reserve with greater justification to maintain a cautious stance and potentially consider easing if labour-market weakness develops further. This creates a critical battle between inflation risk and growth risk. For gold, declining Treasury yields would likely be the more powerful bullish catalyst. If yields begin to fall while geopolitical risks remain elevated, the metal could quickly attract renewed safe-haven and investment demand. For now, $4,150 is an important near-term reference point. A sustained break below it would suggest that the yield and inflation headwinds are gaining control, while a recovery above recent resistance would indicate that investors are again prioritising monetary easing and geopolitical protection. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: Federal Reserve meeting minutes; US employment and inflation data; Treasury yield movements; Federal Reserve rate expectations; crude oil prices; developments around the Strait of Hormuz; broader Middle East geopolitical risk; US dollar direction; and gold's ability to hold the $4,150 area. The next major directional move is likely to develop from changes in interest-rate expectations rather than from gold-specific supply developments. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a cautious near-term view on gold while Treasury yields remain elevated and oil prices are recovering. The longer-term bullish case remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal concerns and the possibility of future monetary easing. However, gold needs confirmation from lower yields or stronger safe-haven demand to overcome the current inflationary pressure created by higher energy prices. The $4,150 area is therefore an important level for the next phase of price discovery. Currency Hedger View Gold and currency markets remain closely connected through the US dollar and global interest-rate expectations. A stronger dollar and higher US yields can create headwinds for gold, while a weaker dollar and expectations for Federal Reserve easing can increase demand for precious metals. For businesses with international currency exposure, the same combination of geopolitical risk, energy-price movements, inflation and interest-rate expectations can also produce significant changes in exchange rates and transaction costs. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, commodities, central-bank policy and global macroeconomic conditions to help businesses assess currency exposure around international transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 7, 2026

Soybean Prices Surge as US Harvest Lags and Export Flows Weaken

Soybean prices are strengthening sharply as traders assess a slower-than-normal US harvest, softer US export shipments and a mixed global supply picture. Front-month futures are leading the advance, while soymeal and soy oil are also moving higher, providing additional support to the broader soybean complex. The key issue for the market is increasingly the pace of US harvest progress. With harvest still well behind the normal seasonal rate and crop condition ratings easing, attention is turning toward the availability of near-term supplies and whether delays create additional price support as the market moves deeper into the season. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorCurrent PositionNov 2026 Soybeans$13.03Nov 2026 Change+22¼ centsNearby Cash Soybeans$12.47½Jan 2027 Soybeans$13.19¼Mar 2027 Soybeans$13.28¾August US Soybean Exports1.465 MMTUS Harvest Progress25%Harvest vs Normal8 percentage points behindUS Good/Excellent Rating57%Brugler500 Index350September Brazil Exports7.36 MMT Soybean Futures Extend Their Advance Soybean futures are showing strong upside momentum, with contracts gaining roughly 10¾ to 22¼ cents. The front end of the curve is leading the move, highlighting stronger immediate demand for physical supplies as the US harvest continues to lag. November soybeans are trading around $13.03, while January futures are near $13.19¼ and March futures around $13.28¾. The nearby cash soybean price is approximately $12.47½, reinforcing the strength developing across the physical and futures markets. The move is also supported by the products complex. Soymeal futures are higher by roughly $5.40 to $7.70, while soy oil is gaining between 28 and 63 points. Strength across all three markets suggests the advance is not being driven by a single component of soybean demand. US Harvest Remains Well Behind Normal US soybean harvest progress is becoming an increasingly important market factor. Harvest is currently only 25% complete, leaving progress approximately 8 percentage points behind normal. Several major producing states are showing particularly large delays: Iowa: 33% behind normal Minnesota: 26% behind Nebraska: 25% behind South Dakota: 17% behind Wisconsin: 16% behind Michigan: 13% behind Ohio: 12% behind The delays do not necessarily imply a permanent reduction in production, but they increase uncertainty around the timing of physical availability. If wet conditions or other logistical problems continue to slow fieldwork, commercial users may place greater value on readily available supplies, potentially keeping nearby soybean prices supported. Crop Conditions Ease Further US soybean crop ratings have also weakened slightly. The good-to-excellent rating has slipped to 57%, down one percentage point, while the Brugler500 index has declined two points to 350. The deterioration remains relatively modest, but it adds to the market's sensitivity to harvest delays. Traders will increasingly focus on whether late-season field conditions allow producers to complete harvest efficiently or whether further deterioration develops. The combination of slower harvest progress and softer crop ratings provides a supportive near-term backdrop. US Export Shipments Remain a Concern US Census data show soybean exports of approximately 1.465 million metric tons in August, equivalent to around 53.82 million bushels. That represented a decline of approximately 22.5% from the previous month and was 36.1% below the same period a year earlier. The weakness in soybean shipments creates an important counterweight to the bullish harvest narrative. A sustained recovery in exports would strengthen the demand side of the market, while continued weakness would limit how far futures can extend the current rally. Soymeal is providing a more constructive signal. August soybean meal exports reached a record 1.366 million metric tons, demonstrating strong international demand for processed soybean products. Brazil Exports Remain Large but Growth Is Limited Brazil exported approximately 7.36 million metric tons of soybeans in September. While that was marginally above the previous year, at just 0.24% higher, it was approximately 25% below the previous month's level. The Brazilian export flow remains a major competitive factor for US soybeans. However, the lack of significant year-on-year growth and the monthly decline reduce some of the pressure that Brazilian supply can place on the US market. The global soybean trade will therefore remain sensitive to the balance between Brazilian availability, US harvest timing and demand from major importing countries. Soymeal and Soy Oil Add Support The strength in soybean products is an important component of the current market structure. Soymeal is benefiting from strong export demand, with August shipments reaching a record level. This indicates that the crushing sector continues to have an important outlet for soybean supplies. Soy oil is also moving higher, creating additional support for soybean processing economics and potentially encouraging continued crushing activity. The combination creates a more constructive environment for the soybean complex, although the strength of crush demand will remain dependent on margins and global demand for meal and vegetable oils. Bullish Scenario The bullish case strengthens if US harvest delays continue while soybean product demand remains firm. A combination of: harvest progress remaining materially behind normal; further deterioration in crop conditions; strong soybean meal exports; improving soy oil prices; reduced Brazilian export availability; and stronger physical demand could encourage additional buying in nearby soybean futures. A sustained move above $13.00 in November soybeans would keep the market focused on the next technical resistance areas and could attract additional speculative momentum. Bearish Scenario The bearish risk remains centred on demand and the eventual arrival of US supplies. If US harvest activity accelerates sharply, the market could quickly receive a substantial volume of newly available soybeans. At the same time, continued weakness in US soybean exports would limit demand-side support. Large South American production and competitive Brazilian exports would add further pressure if global buyers shift toward cheaper Brazilian origin. A failure to maintain the current move above $13.00 would therefore increase the risk of profit-taking and a return toward lower support levels. Soybean Price Outlook The immediate bias is constructive while November soybeans remain above the $13.00 area. A sustained break above the recent highs would open the possibility of further upside toward the next technical resistance zones, particularly if harvest delays persist. Conversely, a decisive move back below $13.00 would weaken the current momentum and shift attention toward whether the rally has been driven primarily by short-term harvest concerns. The key price driver is likely to remain the interaction between harvest progress and export demand. Supply Outlook US supply availability is temporarily constrained by the slow pace of harvesting rather than by an established production shortage. That distinction is important. If fieldwork accelerates, some of the current supply premium could disappear quickly. However, continued delays would keep traders concerned about the timing of physical soybean availability and could maintain stronger nearby pricing. South American production will remain the larger medium-term supply consideration, with Brazilian exports continuing to compete directly with US-origin soybeans. Demand Outlook Demand signals are mixed. US soybean exports are currently weaker than a year earlier, but record soybean meal exports provide evidence of strong underlying demand for processed products. The soybean market therefore needs stronger raw-bean export activity to confirm that the recent rally can develop into a broader demand-driven move. Soymeal and soy oil performance will remain particularly important because stronger crush demand can support soybean prices even when direct bean exports are subdued. Louis Roche Analysis The soybean market is entering a more sensitive phase as the US harvest remains significantly behind its normal seasonal pace. The most important development is not simply the current 25% harvest figure, but the size of the delays across several major producing states. If those delays persist, the market could maintain a near-term supply premium even without a major change in the underlying production outlook. At the same time, the demand picture is not uniformly bullish. US soybean exports are substantially below last year's August level, meaning the market needs evidence of improving international demand to justify a sustained move higher. The strength in soybean meal is therefore particularly important. Record meal exports demonstrate that soybean processing demand remains robust, while firmer soy oil adds further support to the complex. For now, $13.00 is an important psychological level for November soybeans. Holding above it keeps the short-term structure constructive. A sustained break higher would strengthen the bullish case, while a failure to hold the level would suggest that harvest pressure and weaker bean exports are beginning to outweigh the product-market support. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: US soybean harvest progress and whether the pace begins to recover; further changes in US crop condition ratings; soybean export sales and shipment data; soybean meal export demand; soy oil prices and crushing economics; Brazilian export volumes; South American planting and production expectations; currency movements affecting US and Brazilian export competitiveness; and technical momentum around the $13.00 November soybean level. The market is likely to remain highly sensitive to any evidence that US harvest delays are either worsening or rapidly being resolved. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a cautiously bullish near-term view on soybeans while prices remain above $13.00 in the November contract. The combination of delayed US harvest progress, slightly weaker crop ratings and strong soybean meal exports provides meaningful support. However, weaker US soybean shipments remain a significant constraint on the bullish case. The next sustained move is likely to depend on whether harvest delays continue long enough to offset the pressure from large global supplies and relatively weak US bean exports. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important secondary factor for the soybean market because exchange rates directly influence the competitiveness of US and Brazilian agricultural exports. A stronger US dollar can make US soybeans less competitive internationally, while movements in the Brazilian real can influence the pace at which Brazilian exporters bring supplies into the global market. For commercial soybean buyers and exporters, currency exposure can therefore materially affect effective purchasing and selling costs even when the underlying soybean price remains unchanged. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, commodity prices, central-bank policy, macroeconomic conditions and global trade flows to help businesses assess currency exposure around international transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 7, 2026

Wheat Prices Rally as US Planting Lags and Black Sea Risks Increase

Wheat markets are strengthening as weather-related planting concerns in the United States combine with renewed geopolitical risks in the Black Sea region. Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures are all showing strong upward momentum, with the latest move pushing nearby Chicago wheat above $7.00 per bushel. The rally is being supported by concerns over the pace of US winter wheat planting, while export data continues to show a mixed demand picture. At the same time, renewed disruption involving commercial shipping in the Black Sea is adding a risk premium to global wheat prices. The key question for the market is whether these supply and geopolitical concerns can overcome relatively soft US export performance. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent OutlookDec CBOT Wheat$7.04¼Mar CBOT Wheat$7.17½Dec KC HRW$7.56¼Mar KC HRW$7.69Dec Minneapolis$7.20¾Mar Minneapolis$7.37¾US Winter Wheat Planting36%5-Year Average46%August Wheat Exports2.057 MMTExport TrendBelow last year, higher month-on-monthBlack Sea RiskIncreasingNear-Term BiasBullish Wheat Futures Rally Across All Three Markets The wheat complex is showing broad-based strength rather than a move concentrated in a single contract or exchange. Chicago SRW futures have moved firmly higher, with December wheat reaching $7.04¼ and March at $7.17½. Kansas City HRW is showing even stronger gains, with December reaching $7.56¼ and March at $7.69. Minneapolis spring wheat is also advancing, with December at $7.20¾ and March at $7.37¾. The strength across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis suggests traders are increasingly pricing weather, production and geopolitical risks into the forward wheat balance. US Winter Wheat Planting Remains Behind Schedule US planting progress is becoming an increasingly important bullish factor. Only 36% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, leaving planting 10 percentage points behind the five-year average. The delays are particularly pronounced in major producing states: Kansas: 16 percentage points behind Oklahoma: 21 percentage points behind Texas: 13 percentage points behind Crop emergence is currently at 16%. The immediate concern is not necessarily that delayed planting will automatically result in lower production, but that the available planting window is narrowing. If weather conditions remain unfavourable, farmers could face increasing pressure to complete planting under less-than-ideal conditions. Planting Risk Could Become More Important The market is increasingly focused on the quality of the planting window rather than simply the percentage of acres already seeded. A continuation of dry or otherwise unfavourable conditions across the Southern Plains could affect establishment and early crop development. Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are particularly important because of their contribution to hard red winter wheat production. If planting delays persist, traders may begin increasing the weather premium embedded in futures prices. US Export Demand Remains Mixed US wheat exports provide a less bullish signal. Census data shows 2.057 million metric tons of wheat exports in August, equivalent to approximately 75.58 million bushels. Exports were: 23.47% below last year 24.83% above the previous month The month-on-month improvement indicates that export demand is recovering from recent weakness, but the substantial year-on-year decline highlights the continued competitive pressure facing US wheat in international markets. The export data therefore provides a counterweight to the bullish planting and geopolitical developments. Black Sea Risk Adds a Geopolitical Premium The Black Sea is becoming an increasingly important factor for wheat traders. A drone strike has reportedly sunk a merchant vessel in the region, reinforcing concerns about the safety and reliability of commercial shipping. The Black Sea remains one of the world's most important grain-exporting regions. Any increase in attacks on vessels, ports or logistical infrastructure could raise transportation costs and disrupt export flows. Even if physical wheat supply remains available, higher geopolitical risk can encourage buyers to secure alternative supplies and increase the risk premium in futures markets. This is particularly important for US wheat because any disruption to Black Sea exports can improve the relative competitiveness of American supplies. Global Supply Competition US wheat remains in competition with major exporters across the Black Sea, Europe, Australia and Argentina. The current rally will therefore need to be assessed against global availability. If Russia, Ukraine and other major exporters continue to supply the international market aggressively, the upside in US wheat could remain limited. However, any significant disruption to Black Sea logistics could quickly change the competitive landscape. The market is therefore highly sensitive to developments in shipping, export terminals and regional military activity. Bullish Scenario The bullish case for wheat strengthens if several factors develop simultaneously: US winter wheat planting remains significantly behind average Southern Plains weather deteriorates Early crop establishment is poor Black Sea shipping risks increase Global buyers turn toward US supplies Export demand improves US dollar weakness increases export competitiveness Global grain inventories tighten Under this scenario, Chicago wheat could establish itself above $7.00 and begin targeting higher technical levels. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would develop if US planting accelerates and weather improves across the Southern Plains. Additional downside pressure could come from: Strong Black Sea exports Improved Russian and Ukrainian logistics Weak US export demand A stronger US dollar Large global wheat supplies Improved European or Australian production expectations A failure to maintain Chicago wheat above $7.00 would suggest that the current geopolitical and weather premium is not yet sufficient to overcome global supply availability. Price Outlook The near-term wheat outlook is cautiously bullish. The move above $7.00 in Chicago wheat is technically significant, while KC HRW has strengthened even more aggressively. The next stage of the rally will depend heavily on whether US planting delays continue and whether Black Sea risks translate into actual export disruptions. If planting progress remains substantially behind average and geopolitical tensions continue to threaten shipping, wheat futures could maintain their upward momentum. Supply Outlook US supply risks are increasing at the margin because winter wheat planting remains 10 percentage points behind the five-year average. The market will be watching the next planting reports closely for evidence that farmers are catching up. If progress accelerates sharply, some of the current weather premium could be removed. If delays persist, the market could begin pricing greater production uncertainty into the 2026/27 crop. The Black Sea adds a second supply risk. Even without a direct reduction in production, logistical disruptions can restrict the availability of exportable wheat. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed. US wheat exports are improving on a monthly basis, but August shipments remain well below last year's level. The key upside opportunity is that a reduction in Black Sea reliability could redirect international demand toward US wheat. That would be particularly important because the US currently needs stronger export demand to compensate for its relatively weak year-on-year performance. Louis Roche Analysis The wheat market is moving into a more constructive phase because several independent risk factors are beginning to point in the same direction. The most immediate issue is US winter wheat planting. At 36%, progress is 10 percentage points behind the five-year average, with Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas showing particularly significant delays. The Black Sea situation adds another layer of uncertainty. The sinking of a merchant vessel does not automatically mean a major reduction in global wheat supply, but it increases the risk premium surrounding one of the world's most important grain-export corridors. The key technical development is Chicago wheat moving above $7.00. If the market can hold above that level while planting remains behind schedule, the rally has room to develop further. However, US export performance remains a clear weakness, with August shipments still more than 23% below last year. My view is therefore bullish but conditional. The market needs continued weather or geopolitical confirmation to sustain the current rally. Coming Sessions Traders will focus on: US winter wheat planting progress Crop emergence Southern Plains weather Black Sea shipping activity Russian and Ukrainian export flows US export demand Global wheat tenders US dollar movements European wheat prices Australian and Argentine crop conditions The next planting report will be particularly important because evidence of rapid catch-up could pressure prices, while continued delays would reinforce the current bullish narrative. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a cautiously bullish view on wheat. The combination of delayed US winter wheat planting and rising Black Sea shipping risks is creating a stronger fundamental backdrop for prices. Chicago wheat holding above $7.00 would be an important confirmation of the current momentum. However, the market still faces strong competition from global exporters, while US wheat exports remain well below last year's pace. The next phase of the rally will therefore depend on whether supply risks translate into stronger international demand for US wheat. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important component of the global wheat market. The US dollar has a direct influence on the competitiveness of American wheat in international markets. A weaker dollar can improve US export competitiveness, while a stronger dollar can encourage international buyers to source more aggressively from competing origins. For wheat producers, exporters, millers and international buyers, managing FX exposure alongside commodity-price risk can therefore become increasingly important when geopolitical and supply volatility are elevated. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 7, 2026

Corn harvest about to switch into high gear; will demand do the same?

The corn market closed higher today as conditions become more favorable for an accelerated corn harvest in the United States.  In its weekly Crop Progress report released yesterday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that 23 percent of the corn crop had been harvested. This is behind the five-year average of 27 percent for this time of year. The USDA reports that 83 percent of this year’s corn crop in the top 18 corn-growing states had reached the mature stage, level with the five-year average. However, excellent weather is ahead for farmers to pick up the pace, especially in Iowa and Nebraska where corn harvests are behind the average.  As harvest in the U.S. is nearing its end, Brazil and Argentina, the two largest competitors to U.S. corn and soybean exports, are beginning their planting season. El Nino, which is predicted to become the strongest on record by the end of the calendar year, will play an outsized role in the weather patterns for the next several months.  Meanwhile, European Union corn prices are reaching new contract highs, in part linked to lower production due to extreme heat and drought in some areas.  Demand needs to increase if the market is going to rebound to September highs. Significant resistance for December 2026 corn is at 520 and in my opinion, that's where the market is headed in the short term. The monthly corn chart below is trending higher and we have a nice pull back to buy into.  An option trade strategy is to buy March 2027 corn 570 call at 10.0 ($500 per option contract). These options expire February 19, 2027.  Another option strategy is to buy May 2027 corn 570 call at 17.0 ($850 per contract). These options expire April 23, 2027. In my opinion, one could prosper from the volatility that lies ahead instead of being run over by it.

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Energies

October 7, 2026

Commodity Talk: Natgas, Cocoa, Gold, Oil

Key takeaways European natural gas trades with strong gains while crude oil prices face supply pressure. US natural gas futures hover near 3.0 USD/MMBtu amid low storage surpluses and rising LNG exports. Cocoa prices rebound due to projected production drops in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Spot gold trades above 4.100 USD/oz as central bank buying and ETF holdings provide strong support. WTI crude trades near 87 USD/bbl as Middle East maritime flows and pipeline exports recover. Commodities Overview In the commodities market, we are observing a clear polarization in the energy sector, where European natural gas continues its strong wave of appreciation (+2.24% today, +162.78% YTD), while crude oil prices have come under strong supply pressure. Today's declines in Brent crude (-3.07%) and WTI (-2.46%) deepen the correction, driven by reports of political actions in the US aimed at lowering fuel costs and key importers, such as India, seeking new supply directions. Despite the current decline, oil is still defending over 50% gains year-to-date, contrasting with the orange juice market, where today's rise (+1.90%) is merely a temporary rebound in a deep downtrend (-24.48% YTD). Among industrial commodities, extremely high valuations stand out – copper is trading at +2.58σ above its 5-year average, and zinc reaches +1.56σ, confirming strong structural demand for base metals. At the opposite extreme, lean hogs remain at -1.62σ from the long-term average, while European cocoa, after a dynamic weekly rebound (+6.13%), returned to declines today (-2.43%). In the near term, key for investors will be monitoring the sustainability of the correction in the crude oil market and the ability of industrial metals to maintain such high valuation premiums in a volatile macroeconomic environment. The commodities sector is currently characterized by strong polarization in terms of speculator positioning: extreme overbought conditions in the agricultural segment and copper, alongside severe oversold conditions in natural gas and lean hogs. Concurrently, commercials (hedgers) hold positions heavily opposing speculators, which, combined with stretched prices, increases the risk of a turning point across key markets. Sugar (Double Overbought Extreme): Speculator positioning is stretched to the upside, accompanied by severe price overheating. Commercials are hedging with aggressive short positions, creating textbook conditions for rapid profit-taking. Lean Hogs (Extreme Oversold and Divergence): Speculator positioning is scraping historical lows (net -76.2k, z2Y = -2.25, 0.0% percentile), and prices are deeply depressed (z-price1Y = -1.97, 1M -15.3%). However, a divergence emerged this week – prices rebounded +3.0% despite further fund selling (-7.9k), while commercials hold a record net long (+72.0k, z = 2.19), foreshadowing a bottom formation or short squeeze. Natural Gas (Crowded Short Side): Speculators expanded short positions by another -14.5k (-0.3σ), pushing net positioning to -231.0k. A clear divergence exists – despite fund pessimism, prices are rising while producers/hedgers accumulate contracts, creating asymmetric short-squeeze risk. Soybean Meal, Corn, and Soybeans (Speculative Capital Exhaustion): Soybean meal remains extremely overbought. Meanwhile, corn (-26.3k) and soybeans (-24.7k) show capital outflows alongside falling prices (corn 1W -4.0%), confirming a downtrend and profit-taking against a massive commercial short position (-448.5k in corn). COMEX Copper (Lack of Price Reaction to Crowding): Speculators are stretched near peak levels (net 85.4k, z2Y = 1.85, 99.8% percentile, 76% long), yet price momentum has completely faded (1W 0.0%, 1M -0.3%). Commercials maintain a large net short position (-94.8k, z = -1.70); the absence of new price highs amid such one-sided positioning poses a risk of correction. Brent vs. WTI Crude (Largest Weekly Dynamics): Brent experienced the strongest weekly shift in positioning, rising +8.5k (+0.7σ, price +2.4%), reducing fund short exposure. The opposite occurred in WTI, where speculators pulled back -31.6k net (-0.5σ), reacting to weaker price performance (-1.8% 1W). The greatest risk of a painful downward correction is accumulating in sugar and soybean meal, whereas the largest asymmetric opportunity for a strong upward recovery appears in lean hogs and natural gas, where commercial hedgers are accumulating dips against exhausting speculative supply. Natgas US natural gas prices (NATGAS) are trading close to 3.0 USD/MMBtu, recording a positive weekly return of +2.40% and a monthly gain of +3.99%, while maintaining clear negative long-term dynamics: -15.54% year-to-date (YTD) and -12.56% over the last twelve months. The market sits 7.00% above its 50-period moving average, though overall trend indicators (SMA and MACD) continue to generate bearish signals, with a neutral RSI standing at 58 points. Key technical support is defined by the psychological zone around 3.000 USD/MMBtu, a break of which opens room to test 2.850 USD/MMBtu. In turn, the nearest market resistance concentrates near 3.230 USD/MMBtu, and clearing it would allow a test of local highs around 3.350 USD/MMBtu. Fundamental and Market Context The weekly US natural gas storage report showed an injection of 64.00 billion cubic feet (bcf), signaling an acceleration in injection pace relative to the prior reading of 53.00 bcf. However, this remains slightly below average, bringing inventories closer to the 5-year average. Market analysts estimate that the US natural gas storage surplus relative to the five-year average compressed to 2.4% for the week ending September 25, down from 2.9% recorded the previous week. Feedgas volumes delivered to nine major US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals averaged 17.9 bcfd in September, rising from 17.2 bcfd in August. TC Energy officially lifted force majeure on the Columbia Gas Transmission Mountaineer Xpress pipeline following successful emergency repairs, enabling regional production growth and easing transport bottlenecks in the coming days. Meteorological models for the US project near-normal temperatures through at least October 15, significantly limiting power sector demand for both cooling and early heating during the shoulder season. US natural gas futures temporarily slipped below the psychological 3.00 USD/MMBtu mark in early October, hitting a multi-week low after gaining 3.1% in September but closing Q3 down 7.6%. The European natural gas market enters the heating season under fundamentally different conditions than the US market, facing historically low underground gas storage levels, driving a structural divergence between stable Henry Hub and European hubs. Tight European inventories necessitate maintaining a high price premium over the US, encouraging maximum utilization of regasification capacity and a steady drain of US gas through Gulf Coast liquefaction infrastructure. US transmission capacity remains under pressure from rising shale supply, which, in the absence of weather extremes in early October, forces producers to manage wellhead output flexibly while awaiting winter heating demand. The convergence of maintenance work at US export facilities with the autumn dip in domestic consumption limits immediate upside breakout potential in the US, shifting market balancing responsibility onto LNG cargo loadings bound for Europe. Heating degree days remain below the 5-year average, pointing to potentially lower gas usage. However, increased gas flow to LNG terminals reduces storage injection capacity. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Gas inventories have approached the 5-year average, indicating that the start of the heating season could be quite interesting despite warm temperature forecasts. Source: EIA, XTB Comparative storage remains at low levels (inverted axes). Note, however, that similar situations around the turn of the year previously led to noticeable price pullbacks. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning Standardized historical valuation metrics for natural gas futures sit in moderate undervaluation territory. The 1-year Z-score stands at -0.37, the 2-year metric sits at -0.55, while the 5-year horizon reaches -0.36. Analyzing the trajectory of the 5-year Z-score over the past six months highlights a clear valuation evolution. Six months ago, the index stood at a low level of -0.61 before rebounding over subsequent months to reach -0.32 three months ago. One month ago, it dipped back toward -0.46 before stabilizing and rising to its current level of -0.36. Currently, natural gas trades slightly above its 75-session moving average but below its 1.2-year and 5-year moving averages, with no clear signal generated. A starkly contrasting, extreme structure is revealed by CFTC positioning data for large speculative traders as of September 29, 2026. Net speculative positioning remains deeply negative at -231,020 contracts, corresponding to an extreme Z-score of -2.10 and a historical percentile of just 1.4%. This means speculative capital exposure on the short side is among the deepest in trading history. On a weekly basis, these investors expanded their negative exposure further, reducing net positioning by another 14,490 contracts, shrinking long position share to just 35.3%. Net positions are at their lowest levels since 2020. Short positions have decreased, but long positions are being closed more aggressively. Historically, such net levels did not necessarily signal a contrarian buy. A distinct gap exists between market valuation based on price deviations and speculative position structure. While Z-scores suggest only moderate price undervaluation relative to multi-year averages, fund positioning in futures reflects extreme, near-unprecedented pessimism. This setup creates a powerful risk asymmetry skewed toward a rapid upward rally. With short positions so heavily accumulated, any unexpected fundamental impulse—such as early cold snaps or escalating supply issues in Europe—poses an immediate short squeeze threat, forcing panic buybacks from speculative funds. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Sustaining upward pressure requires early winter cold snaps in North America to rapidly boost heating demand and break current neutral temperature profiles. Concurrently, a key catalyst will be LNG export growth above 18.0 bcfd, driven by the critical need to refill depleted European storage before peak winter. Technically, clearing and closing a daily candle above resistance at 3.230 USD/MMBtu would trigger short covering by hedge funds (short squeeze), opening a direct path toward testing 3.550 USD/MMBtu and eventually the psychological 3.900 USD/MMBtu barrier. Bearish Scenario: The downside case materializes if mild weather persists deep into late October, preventing heating demand from developing and keeping weekly storage injections above 70–80 bcf. Additional supply pressure would come from fully restored capacity on the Mountaineer Xpress pipeline and any unplanned outages at LNG export terminals, trapping gas in the domestic market. Technically, breaking down from the current consolidation below 3.000 USD/MMBtu would invalidate short-term gains, pushing NATGAS futures down to support at 2.850 USD/MMBtu, and under continued supply dominance, toward 2.620 USD/MMBtu. Cocoa Cocoa prices stand at 5,777.0 USD/t, recording a noticeable weekly rebound of +8.33%, alongside monthly declines of -6.34%, -1.90% year-to-date, and -5.94% year-over-year. RSI at 45 points indicates neutral market conditions with room for further movement, while moving average (SMA) signals and MACD have generated bullish indications. Prices are consolidating just below a key moving average, showing a -0.28% deviation relative to the 50 SMA. The nearest major technical resistance sits in the 5,950–6,000 USD/t zone, while key support is marked around 5,400–5,500 USD/t, whose defense sparked a wave of short covering. Cocoa is breaking out of a potential neckline near 5,700 and attempting to breach the 25 and 50 SMAs. If successful, pattern projections point to an upside target as high as 6,300. Fundamental and Market Context Cocoa production in Ivory Coast for the upcoming 2026/27 season is projected to drop about 20% to 1.75 million tons, serving as the main driver behind recent price rebounds. Early October arrivals show low volumes, but this stems from logistical issues and does not yet represent full early-season data. Harvests in Ghana, the world's second-largest producer, are forecasted at 650,000 tons for the 2026/27 season, representing a 13% YoY supply decline due to growing weather risks. An unusually strong El Niño poses a direct threat of intensifying dry Harmattan winds starting November 2026, which could further deplete soil moisture and damage flowers during a critical crop phase. Short-term supply pressure is cushioned by high availability of old-crop cocoa following a large global surplus in 2025/26 and warehouse stocks at a two-year high of 3.43 million bags. Heavy rains and flooding in western Ivory Coast (Kouibly region) washed out roads and destroyed bridges, paralyzing local transport and directly delaying bean deliveries from farms to export ports. Agrometeorological conditions in southern Ivory Coast around Agboville are more balanced, where sunny spells help farmers dry harvested beans and support ongoing crop development. In Ghana's Kwabeng region, rainfall deficits were noted, but optimal soil moisture retention paired with sunshine beneficially limits fungal disease pressure, including black pod disease. Torrential rains in Cameroon near Yaoundé stimulated tree biomass growth but triggered widespread black pod spread and road damage, disrupting traditional sun-drying processes. In southwestern Cameroon, logistical hurdles and lack of sunlight forced farmers to rely heavily on drying ovens to protect bean quality from mold. In southwestern Nigeria around Benin City, severe storms damaged pods directly on cocoa trees, creating ideal conditions for rapid black pod expansion. In southeastern Nigeria around Ikom, growers are transplanting hybrid seedlings during moderate rain and sun, though harvest start dates were pushed back a month to November due to earlier rainy season delays. West Africa's soft commodities sector shows deep cross-border trade disruption, constraining flows between countries at the start of the new harvest cycle. Cocoa seasonality typically points toward year-end gains. If harvests indeed deteriorate, a return to the 6,000–7,000 range remains possible before year-end. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning Cocoa valuation measured by standard deviation metrics reflects elevated levels annually, with the 1-year Z-score at +0.81, while 2-year Z-score stands negative at -0.46, and 5-year valuation sits at +0.23. The evolution of the 5-year Z-score over the last six months shows a clear recovery trajectory: six months ago, it sat deeply negative at -0.63 before rising to slightly positive territory (+0.01) three months ago. The upward trend continued, reaching +0.38 one month ago before stabilizing and pulling back slightly to the current +0.23 reading. Crossing back above the 75-session moving average may signal growing bull strength, though historically, rebounds from this average were rare, seen only during powerful rallies in March/October 2023 and May 2024. CFTC data from September 29, 2026, shows speculative investors maintaining a heavy net short position of -14,119 contracts. This positioning corresponds to a Z-score of -1.05 and a historical percentile of just 8.6%, illustrating that leveraged fund exposure is unusually depressed. Long position share stands at a modest 40.6%, though in the latest report, speculators paused short expansion and bought back 931 contracts net. Speculative positioning sharply contradicts the moderately neutral multi-year valuation (5-year Z-score +0.23), reflecting extreme bearish bias (8.6th percentile). This asymmetry, combined with mounting supply and logistical disruptions in West Africa, creates a high risk of a rapid short squeeze, where panicked short covering by institutional investors could trigger an outsized upside impulse. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Continued short covering by hedge funds alongside expanding El Niño effects and Harmattan damage across West Africa, coupled with ongoing transport and bridge paralysis in Ivory Coast, pushes prices above 50-day moving average resistance. Under these conditions, the market would look past high inventory levels to discount severe harvest deficits in Ghana and Ivory Coast, driving cocoa prices toward 6,200–6,500 USD/t. Bearish Scenario: Weather improvements in western Ivory Coast allowing quick repairs to port-bound transport routes, paired with pressure from 2-year high old-crop stocks (3.43 million bags) and a lack of Harmattan escalation, prompt market participants to resume selling. Technically, rejection at 5,800 USD/t and a fall back below 5,600 USD/t would align with econometric model forecasts, pushing cocoa toward support at 5,400 USD/t and medium-term into the 4,650–4,800 USD/t area. Gold Spot gold trades at 4,177 USD/oz, showing a modest weekly gain of 0.22%, alongside a notable monthly decline of 5.45% and a year-to-date return of -3.83% (up 4.55% year-over-year). RSI sits at 42 points, reflecting supply dominance without entering extreme oversold territory, while negative deviation from the 50-period moving average (-3.80%) alongside bearish SMA and MACD setups confirms bearish technical sentiment. Immediate key support spans 4,130.00–4,100.00 USD/oz, with immediate resistance at 4,200.00 USD and further resistance around 4,330.00 USD. Gold remains in a short-term downtrend, and until it reclaims the 50 SMA, a test of the 3,900 to 4,100 zone remains possible. Fundamental and Market Context Spot gold trades above 4,100.00 USD/oz despite US Treasury yields remaining above 5.00%, pointing to an ongoing structural repricing of bullion relative to traditional real interest rate models in the US. Holdings in global physically-backed gold ETFs reached a 4-year high, forming a crucial demand floor defending the 4,130.00 USD/oz zone against deeper sell-offs. Gold bounced off two-month lows following a pause in Treasury selling, where a mild yield dip softened the US dollar and lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metal. September US payroll data came in significantly below expectations, adding just 29,000 nonfarm jobs against a consensus of 90,000, alongside a downward revision of August data to 133,000 jobs. US unemployment rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth slowed unexpectedly to 3.0% (lowest since May 2021), significantly reducing leeway for further Fed monetary tightening. Following jobs data, market pricing slashed October Fed rate hike odds toward 20%, while December tightening odds remain estimated above 80% (totaling over 100%). Fed officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and NY Fed President John Williams, signaled in speeches the need to take additional time to assess whether further hikes are necessary to return inflation to target. The People's Bank of China increased official gold reserves to 2,346.43 tons from 2,313.46 tons previously, representing an inflow of 32.97 tons of physical metal under its reserve diversification program. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation reported a reduction in gold holdings to 2,282.98 tons from 2,304.75 tons, selling 21.77 tons net. Long-term gold valuation remains supported by macroeconomic projections; an econometric model based on yields, ETFs, and the dollar suggests gold should trade around 4,500 over a 12-month horizon. Current spot gold prices sit 25.73% below their all-time high of 5,608.35 USD/oz. Despite gold selling off, ETFs began aggressively buying gold, echoing the summer 2025 setup right before a strong September rally tied to Fed stance shifts. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Despite lower odds of an October hike, the market remains strongly positioned for further rate increases, pointing toward 2-3 more moves through mid-next year. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning Standardized price deviation metrics (Z-scores) indicate varying bullion valuations depending on the chosen timeframe. The 1-year Z-score stands at -0.85, signaling a moderate price cooldown and relative undervaluation over the past twelve months. Conversely, longer-term indicators sit on the positive side, reaching +0.47 for 2-year and +1.40 for 5-year periods. The evolution of the 5-year Z-score over the last six months displays a clear downward trend. Six months ago, this index sat at an extremely elevated +2.51 level before dropping to +1.60 three months later. A month ago brought a temporary bounce to +1.73, but recent weeks saw a renewed decline, stabilizing at the current +1.40 level. The CFTC speculative positioning report as of September 29, 2026, shows leveraged funds and financial investors holding net long positions of +218,632 contracts. The Z-score for this position sits at +0.06, yet historical percentile positioning reaches 86.6%, testifying to high structural market saturation in bullish positions. Speculators trimmed net exposure by 7,221 contracts during the week, though long position share remains extremely high at 88.9%. A synthesis of both perspectives highlights risk asymmetry. Although the drop in 5-year price Z-score confirms profit-taking and reduced overbought conditions, speculative positioning at the 86.6th percentile with nearly 89% longs leaves the market vulnerable to further position unwinding, especially after the recent bounce. This setup implies that absent fresh pro-inflationary impulses or hawkish Fed rhetoric, the overhang of speculative long positions could prompt another wave of forced liquidation, deepening technical correction. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Gold resuming a sustained uptrend requires a definitive breakout and hold above technical resistance at 4,200.00 USD/oz, backed by confirmation of a dovish Fed pivot. Falling rate hike odds late in the year—triggered by worsening US employment readings and wage growth slowing below 3.0%—would need to push Treasury yields below 5.00% and weaken the US dollar index. Under these conditions, sustained central bank buying (notably PBoC) and ETF inflows would propel gold to test local peaks around 4,330.00 USD, clearing a medium-term path toward the econometric model target of 4,546.76 USD/oz. Bearish Scenario: A deeper decline materializes if gold breaks below key support in the 4,130.00–4,100.00 USD/oz zone, triggering stop-loss cascades and forced liquidation of saturated speculative net long positions. A key fundamental driver would be renewed hawkish expectations for the December Fed meeting (pricing rate hike odds above current 80%), driven by core inflation rebounds. Rising Treasury yields would pressure ETF holdings, driving prices down first to 4,020.00 USD support, and under a strong sell-off, toward psychological support at 3,950.00 USD/oz. Oil Current WTI crude trades at 87 USD/bbl, while European Brent benchmark trades between 98.22–100.92 USD/bbl. Medium term, WTI marks a 3.13% weekly drop and a 5.56% monthly decline, while retaining strong YTD gains of +52.79% and +41.04% YoY. RSI dropped to 33 points, approaching oversold territory, MACD generates a sell signal, and prices dipped 1.06% below the 50-period moving average, though overall SMA alignment remains technically bullish. Key short-term support following a break below 88.54 USD sits at 86.31 USD and 84.36 USD for WTI, while main technical resistance for Brent centers around 103.90 USD. Fundamental and Market Context Daily crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered to 17.5 million barrels per day, representing nearly 98% of pre-conflict volumes in the Persian Gulf region. Reports also indicate daily refined product flows reached 2 million barrels per day. Throughput on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline reached 5.8 million barrels per day (80% of nominal capacity), bypassing less secure maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East crude exports in late September exceeded pre-war averages over a four-day stretch, pointing to rapid logistical recovery. G7 nations agreed on a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from strategic reserves, pledging not to introduce energy export barriers. Saudi Aramco cut November Official Selling Prices (OSP) for Arab Light to Asian buyers sharply, expanding discounts to 5 USD below regional benchmarks (from 2 USD discount in October). The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) and OPEC+ delegates decided on October 4 to keep November output targets unchanged, maintaining 2 million bpd production cuts through late 2026. Reassessing baseline capacity for OPEC+ members was officially postponed to 2027 due to infrastructure instability in conflict areas. According to the IEA, OPEC production capacity fell sharply. A group of seven key OPEC+ producers raised combined August production by 630,000 bpd to 25 million bpd, which remains about 5 million bpd below pre-conflict levels. Current Saudi crude output stands at 6.238 million bpd, down from earlier levels of 8.135 million bpd. US crude production remains near record highs at 13.948 million bpd (13.955 million bpd weekly average), while Russian output fell to 9.582 million bpd from 9.716 million bpd. Recent US inventory reports showed a weekly crude build of 0.92 million barrels (vs 2.97 million build prior), while API estimates signaled a 1.02 million build (vs 1.79 million prior). Despite improved crude availability, refined product inventories remain tight, with US middle distillate stocks standing at 105.2 million barrels. The oil market shows huge disparities. The Brent-WTI spread widened beyond 10 USD, driven by concerns over potential diesel export bans reducing refinery crude purchases. Reports also suggest the US administration is actively trying through various methods to push prices down ahead of midterm elections. Vitol's CEO stated that commercial oil stocks in Western nations were depleted following war disruptions in Iran, creating sudden deficit risks if fresh supply shocks emerge. Japanese officials held talks with Saudi Arabia and the UAE during the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) summit to secure ongoing crude supply to Asian nations. Iraq's parliament included a conservative crude oil price assumption of 58 USD/bbl in its draft 2027 national budget. Crude deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz picked up visibly of late, but lingering issues remain. Speculation suggests the UAE and other Gulf states are quietly paying Iran to avoid vessel attacks, raising export costs while preserving oil revenue. Source: hormuzstraittracker.com Physical Brent prices remain elevated, but the Brent-Dubai spread is narrowing. Omani crude prices are falling sharply. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The crack spread in the US is dropping along with WTI prices, but remains at elevated levels. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Calendar spreads are starting to decline noticeably. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The WTI futures curve is easing noticeably in the short end while shifting higher further out, signaling reduced short-term pressure (or artificial price suppression), but persistent underlying issues long term. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning Standard deviation valuation metrics for WTI crude sit at moderate positive levels, with Z1Y at +0.55, Z2Y at +1.11, and 5-year Z5Y at +0.64. Analyzing the historical trajectory of the 5-year Z-score over the last six months reveals dramatic shifts in market sentiment. Six months ago, the index stood at an extreme peak of +2.72, reflecting the height of geopolitical risk premium. Three months ago, it plunged to negative territory (-0.74) following temporary military stabilization. One month ago, the metric bounced to +0.96 on renewed shipping route concerns before settling at +0.64 in recent weeks alongside shipping normalization. CFTC positioning data for September 29, 2026, shows net long speculative positioning at +109,463 contracts, matching a Z-score of -0.69 and sitting at the 55.3rd historical percentile. Over the week, funds conducted a sharp reduction, selling 31,643 net contracts and lowering long position share to 58.9%. The pullback in speculative exposure confirms declining price premiums reflected in lower Z5Y metrics. Heavy profit-taking and long liquidation reduce speculative supply overhang, but with Middle East export infrastructure unblocking, pressure favors further valuation cooling. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Resuming an upward wave requires renewed geopolitical risks, such as re-blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on East-West pipeline infrastructure, or physical exhaustion of the 100 million barrels released from G7 strategic reserves amid ongoing middle distillate deficits. Technically, holding support at 86.31 USD on WTI followed by a breakout above 88.54 USD and clearing 90.00 USD, along with testing 103.90 USD resistance on Brent, would realize this scenario. Bearish Scenario: A deeper sell-off materializes if Middle East crude flows remain above pre-war levels, Aramco continues aggressive Asian OSP price cuts, and record US production near 14 million bpd drives ongoing commercial inventory builds. Technically, a daily close below 86.31 USD on WTI seals bear dominance, sending prices directly to support at 84.36 USD, with medium-term risk extending toward psychological support at 80.00 USD/bbl.

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Banks

October 6, 2026

Euro: Downside risks with 1.1100 in sight against US Dollar – ING

Francesco Pesole at ING highlights that the Euro (EUR) is under pressure from French bond market turbulence, which is adding a fiscal risk premium and driving a repricing lower in European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations. Swap differentials now resemble levels historically consistent with weaker EUR/USD. ING sees limited confidence in a sustained rebound and warns that EUR/USD could test 1.1100 or even 1.1000 if bond stress intensifies. French fiscal fears weigh on Euro "The euro started the week at the bottom of the G10 scorecard, a clear signal that turbulence in the French bond market remains firmly on FX investors’ radars. The euro is being affected through two channels: a direct one, where a fiscal risk premium (so far not extreme) has been added, and an indirect one via a repricing lower in ECB rate expectations." "Pricing for the March ECB meeting has declined from 80bp on 24 September to 45bp now. This has been a very EUR-specific move and has pushed the EUR:USD two-year swap rate differential (ESTR-SOFR) to -167bp. The last time the spread was at these levels was in August 2025." "Some relief in French bonds yesterday helped EUR/USD recover to just above 1.1200 after a fall to 1.1160, but we don’t have much confidence in a sustained rebound. The fiscal risk premium is still relatively limited, leaving scope for EUR/USD to test 1.1100 or even 1.1000 if bond market stress intensifies. Markets are now awaiting details from Marine Le Pen on a counter-budget."

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Forex Trading

October 6, 2026

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD Drops to May 2025 Levels as German Industrial Production Slide

German industrial orders fell by 10.6% month-on-month in August, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1% decline and a 2.5% increase in July. EUR/USD has resumed its decline and is trading at its lowest level since May 19, 2025 following the release, which raises serious questions about the outlook for the eurozone’s largest economy. The main reason for the sharp drop was a collapse in large orders for aircraft, ships, railway rolling stock and military vehicles. The “other transport equipment” category recorded a 61.5% month-on-month decline in orders, after more than doubling in July on the back of exceptionally large contracts. Excluding large-scale orders, new industrial orders fell by just 0.1% month-on-month in August. The three-month comparison points to a more stable picture than the headline August reading. New orders in the June–August period were 1.3% higher than in the previous three months. July data were revised higher: orders ultimately increased by 3.2% month-on-month, compared with the initially reported 2.5%. Foreign orders fell by 5.4% month-on-month in August. Orders from the eurozone also declined by 5.4%, while orders from outside the eurozone fell by 5.5%. Domestic demand was even weaker, with orders from within Germany falling by 17.3% month-on-month. This shows that, beyond the impact of large-scale contracts, weak domestic demand remains a significant risk for German industry. French industrial production also surprised to the downside, falling by 0.3% month-on-month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase after a 0.4% decline in the previous month. EURUSD (H1, D1 interval) Source: xStation5 Source: xStation5

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Banks

October 6, 2026

Turkish Lira: CPI surprise seen enabling rate cut – Commerzbank

Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank reports Turkey’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell below 30% year-on-year, with softer month-on-month gains, creating scope for the central bank to cut rates by 100 bps. He warns the Lira remains heavily managed by official intervention and cannot benefit sustainably. A rate cut and possible re-acceleration of inflation later this year are expected to keep Turkish Lira (TRY) under pressure. Lira support undermined by easing risks "Turkey’s September CPI data surprised pleasantly: headline inflation fell to 29.7%y/y from 31.51%y/y, while prices increased by 1.8%m/m - softer than consensus forecasts had implied. Core C inflation moderated to 28.7%y/y, but the index still rose by 2.1%m/m. As usual, we do not attach much significance to the year-on-year decline, which was heavily flattered by base-effects, but there is no question that month-on-month rate of increase (after seasonal adjustment) also decelerated noticeably" "Nevertheless, this data point creates the perfect background for Turkey’s central bank (CBT) to cut rates by 100bp later this month. Inflation has dropped below 30%y/y for the first time in almost five years, allowing policymakers to implement what they had desperately been seeking." "The lira was unable to benefit from the better data yesterday because it is anyway propped up by central bank and state bank intervention. Such intervention can smooth the path, but cannot alter the direction. A rate cut and potentially re-accelerating inflation later this year will keep the exchange rate under pressure, in our view."

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Banks

October 6, 2026

Equities: Broad catch-up as yields back up – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team report that Equities moved higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq hitting a fresh record and the S&P 500 just 0.3% below its own peak. Gains occurred despite another backup in long‑term yields, with positive market breadth and an unusual sector mix. The move is described as a broader catch‑up session rather than classic risk‑on or inflation‑relief buying. Nasdaq at record in atypical sector rally "Equities moved higher on Monday and finished not far from session highs. The Nasdaq even reached a fresh record, while the S&P 500 is just 0.3% below its own." "The main takeaway from yesterday's market action was that equities rose despite another backup in long-term yields. Unlike last week, gains were not driven solely by technology stocks, as market breadth was positive as well." "However, the sector mix was unusual, with materials, communication services, energy, and banks among the outperformers. Defensives such as healthcare and consumer staples were also strong, while industrials and real estate lagged." "Hence, this was neither a classic risk-on move nor inflation-relief. Rather, it appeared to be a broader catch-up session without clear directional drivers, other than the fact that parts of the market have remained sidelined for too long."

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Banks

October 6, 2026

Brent: Prices hold near $100 as Gulf risks persist – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that ICE Brent is still finding support around the $100/bbl level as geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf outweigh an improving supply backdrop. They highlight recent attacks on Saudi infrastructure, adjustments in Kuwait and Saudi output and pricing, and lingering vulnerability in European natural gas storage ahead of winter. Brent supported by Gulf tensions "ICE Brent continues to find support around the $100/bbl level, with geopolitical risks outweighing an improvement in the supply picture." "While there are growing signs of a recovery in oil flows from the Persian Gulf, the market remains nervous about potential supply disruptions from the region. This is keeping prices well-supported for now. This nervousness is likely to persist until there are signs of progress in a deal between the US and Iran." "Reports yesterday said Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was targeted again. It only recently returned to operation following an earlier attack. Though the latest attack doesn’t appear to have disrupted flows through the pipeline, it’s a reminder that flows remain at risk." "Oil producers in the Persian Gulf continue to adapt to the region's situation. Kuwait said that it is producing at 75% of pre-war levels, while the Saudis also cut the official selling price of their Arab Light into Asia for November loadings, a sign of an improving supply picture." "The European gas market remains vulnerable, despite signs of a more recent pick-up in LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. EU gas storage is just shy of 73% full. This is down from 83% at the same stage last year, and below the 5-year average of 88%."

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Banks

October 6, 2026

Euro: Downtrend slows but further lows possible against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that EUR/USD briefly broke below 1.1180 to a 17‑month low before rebounding to close around 1.1220. Intraday, they expect consolidation inside a defined range. Over the coming 1–3 weeks, they retain a negative Euro bias, warning that while momentum is slowing, a test of 1.1145 and potentially the 1.1215 technical target on a 1–3 month view cannot be ruled out. Euro still pressured versus Dollar "24-HOUR VIEW: Our view of range-trading yesterday was incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, EUR dropped to a low of 1.1160 during the Asian session before recovering. EUR closed 0.28% lower at 1.1221. Despite the relatively sharp drop, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum. Today, we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1180 and 1.1255." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a negative EUR view since the middle of last month. Last Friday (02 Oct, spot 1.1245), we highlighted that “while EUR could continue to decline, it remains to be seen whether the current rapid pace of decline can be sustained.” We added, “the level to watch on the downside is 1.1180.” Yesterday, EUR broke below 1.1180, touching a low of 1.1160 before rebounding. Downward momentum is showing early signs of slowing, but only a breach of 1.1285 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.1315) would indicate that the decline is stabilising. Until then, there is a chance for EUR to test 1.1145 next."

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Gold hits two-month low as bears await break below $4,100 amid sustained USD strength

Gold meets with a fresh supply as USD retains its bullish bias amid geopolitical uncertainties. Elevated US bond yields counter receding October Fed hike bets while weighing on the bullion. Investors now look to FOMC Minutes, due on Wednesday, for more cues about the policy path. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following the previous day's consolidative price move and drops to a two-month low during the Asian session on Tuesday, with bears now awaiting a break below the $4,100 mark before positioning for further losses. Despite receding October Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, the US Dollar (USD) retains its bullish tone and continues to undermine demand for the commodity. The US macro data released last week pointed to moderating inflation and a slight cooling in the labor market. Moreover, crude oil prices hang near a four-week low as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns, significantly easing pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year. Fed hike expectations hold as markets digest softer payrolls Economists at Deutsche Bank argue that the softer headline payrolls print has not fundamentally altered the broader labour-market story. They note that “although the headline payroll number was disappointing, the wider labour-market picture remains relatively resilient, particularly alongside recent ADP and jobless-claims readings,” and on that basis their team “continue to expect two further 25bp Fed hikes over the next couple of quarters.” In terms of market pricing, Deutsche Bank highlight that “the market is pricing in another 86bps over the next 12 months, down from 100bps early last week but up from 70bps just after the payroll release,” underscoring how rate expectations have moderated but remain firmly skewed toward additional tightening. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and elevated US bond yields keep the USD close to its highest level since April 2025, set on Monday, which continues to exert pressure on the Gold price. In the latest developments, the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen said that it carried out three military operations using ballistic and cruise missiles and drones against airports, an oil facility, and military sites across Saudi Arabia. Separately, the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said it had destroyed a ballistic missile launch platform in the capital Sanaa and a storage facility inside a mountainous site in Saada. Adding to this, media reports suggest that Israel is preparing a potential attack against Iran, either in coordination with the US or independently, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, a deepening fiscal shock in France led to an extended rout in the fixed income market, keeping US bond yields near multi-year highs and offering additional support to the Greenback. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the downside. Bearish traders, however, might await more cues about the Fed's future policy path before positioning for further losses. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes, due on Wednesday. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members, along with the incoming geopolitical headlines, will play a key role in driving the USD and provide some impetus to gold. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop backs the case for an eventual XAU/USD breakdown below the lower boundary of a familiar range held over the past week or so. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis Against the backdrop of a fall from the August monthly swing high, the recent range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits below zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 suggests weak momentum that reinforces the downside bias rather than a clear oversold condition. However, a convincing break below the trading range and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,098 is needed to back the case for deeper losses toward the structural floor around the prior cycle low near $3,936. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,226, followed closely by the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at $4,254. Further barriers are pegged at the 50.0% retracement near $4,316 and higher Fibonacci levels at $4,406 and $4,517 before the distant swing high around $4,696.

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Energies

October 6, 2026

WTI Price Forecast: Bulls seem hesitant near $89.00 amid easing supply risks

WTI stages a modest bounce from the vicinity of a four-week low, though it lacks bullish conviction. Easing supply concerns counter geopolitical uncertainties and cap the upside for the black liquid. The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing directional bets around the commodity. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, reclaiming the $89.00 mark and snapping a two-day winning streak. The black liquid, however, remains close to a four-week low, touched last Friday, amid mixed fundamental cues. The geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which, in turn, offers some support to crude oil prices. That said, resilient Middle Eastern crude exports, along with a G7 emergency stockpile release, have eased supply concerns and might cap any meaningful upside for the commodity. From a technical perspective, crude oil prices now seem to have found acceptance below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, some follow-through weakness below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September upswing is needed to back the case for further losses amid mixed oscillators on the said chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at subdued, consolidative momentum rather than a decisive recovery. Hence, the 200-period SMA at $90.60 might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $93.62. The cycle high anchor near $101.85 marks a distant bullish objective that is unlikely to be challenged unless crude oil prices can reclaim and hold above the intermediate resistance band. Meanwhile, immediate support is located at the 38.2% retracement at $88.52, with deeper levels at the 50.0% level near $84.40 and the 61.8% Fibo. at $80.29 if selling pressure extends. WTI 4-hour chart

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Palm Oil Prices Edge Higher as Traders Await Malaysian Supply Data

Malaysian palm oil futures are holding near MYR 4,580 per tonne, extending their recovery as a weaker ringgit and firmer crude oil improve the commodity’s competitive position as a biodiesel feedstock. The market is now turning its attention toward Malaysian supply and inventory data, with expectations that stocks could reach a seasonal peak. At the same time, elevated inventories remain a limiting factor for prices, while expectations surrounding El Niño and potential supply risks into 2027 provide an important longer-term support factor. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent OutlookMalaysian Palm OilNear MYR 4,580/tonneKey Trading RangeMYR 4,500–5,000CurrencyWeaker Malaysian ringgit supportiveCrude OilFirmer, supporting biodiesel demandInventoriesElevated, potentially peaking this monthIndiaImports expected to remain steady in 2026/27ChinaDalian market closed for holidayKey CatalystMalaysian Palm Oil Board monthly dataMain RiskHigh inventories and competing vegetable oils Palm Oil Price Action Palm oil is attempting to extend its recent recovery after breaking away from a period of weakness. Prices near MYR 4,580 remain comfortably above the MYR 4,500 area, keeping the broader market structure constructive in the near term. A weaker ringgit is providing additional support because palm oil becomes relatively more competitive for international buyers when the Malaysian currency loses ground. Crude oil is another positive influence. Higher energy prices increase the relative attractiveness of vegetable oils used in biodiesel production, helping palm oil maintain demand support even while global edible-oil markets remain competitive. Inventory Levels Remain the Main Constraint The biggest obstacle to a sustained rally remains the inventory picture. Malaysian stocks are expected to reach a peak around the current period, meaning the market could face additional selling pressure if the upcoming Malaysian Palm Oil Board data confirms another significant accumulation. Elevated inventories reduce the urgency among buyers and make it more difficult for palm oil to sustain a breakout above the upper end of its current trading range. The MYR 5,000 level therefore remains an important psychological and technical ceiling. India Demand Outlook India remains an important source of demand because it is the world's largest palm oil importer. Expectations are for Indian palm oil imports to remain relatively steady through the 2026/27 season. Lower edible-oil tariffs ahead of the festive period should provide some near-term support for consumption and imports. However, steady imports rather than a significant acceleration in demand suggest that India is more likely to provide a floor for palm oil prices than act as the catalyst for a major upside breakout. Biodiesel and Crude Oil Support The energy market is becoming increasingly important for palm oil. Firmer crude oil prices improve the economics of biodiesel and can increase the relative attractiveness of palm-based feedstocks. Middle East supply risks are therefore indirectly supportive for palm oil through the broader energy complex. If crude oil remains elevated, palm oil should retain an important demand advantage against periods when energy markets are weak. Indonesia and Market Transparency Indonesia remains the world's largest palm oil producer, making developments in the country's export infrastructure and monitoring systems important for the global market. Danantara Sumberdaya has begun testing a monitoring platform designed to improve transparency across commodity exports, including palm oil. Greater transparency could eventually improve the visibility of Indonesian supply and exports, although the immediate price impact is likely to remain limited compared with production, inventories, currency movements and biodiesel demand. Competing Vegetable Oils Palm oil is also being influenced by movements in competing vegetable oils. Weaker Chicago soyoil prices are limiting the upside because buyers can shift between vegetable-oil markets depending on relative pricing and availability. The relationship between palm oil, soyoil and other edible oils will therefore remain important as traders assess whether the current palm oil recovery can develop into a broader vegetable-oil rally. El Niño Supply Risk El Niño remains an important medium- to longer-term consideration. A stronger El Niño could create hotter and drier conditions across major Southeast Asian growing regions, potentially affecting palm yields and future production. This provides an underlying bullish argument for prices further ahead, particularly if weather deterioration develops at a time when inventories are already tightening. However, the market currently has sufficient inventory to absorb some near-term supply uncertainty, which limits the immediate impact of weather risk on prices. Bullish Scenario Palm oil could move toward and through MYR 5,000 per tonne if several supportive factors align. Key bullish drivers include: A weaker Malaysian ringgit Higher crude oil prices Stronger biodiesel demand Firm Indian imports Evidence of declining Malaysian inventories Increasing El Niño-related production concerns Strength in competing vegetable oils A sustained move above MYR 5,000 would signal that the market is beginning to price a tighter forward supply balance. Bearish Scenario The bearish case remains centred on inventories and competition from other vegetable oils. A further rise in Malaysian stocks, weaker crude oil, continued weakness in soyoil or disappointing export demand could push prices back toward MYR 4,500. If Malaysian production remains strong while inventories continue building, traders may become increasingly comfortable selling into rallies. Price Outlook The immediate price structure remains neutral to cautiously bullish. The MYR 4,500 region should provide initial support, while MYR 5,000 remains the major upside barrier. A sustained break above MYR 5,000 would improve the technical outlook and potentially open the way toward higher levels. Failure to break the upper boundary, particularly alongside rising inventories, would keep palm oil within its broader range. Supply Outlook Near-term supply remains adequate, with Malaysian inventories expected to remain elevated. The more important question is whether stocks have reached their seasonal peak. A confirmed shift toward declining inventories would strengthen the bullish case. Further ahead, El Niño creates a potentially significant production risk for Southeast Asian palm oil, particularly if adverse weather persists through critical growing periods. Demand Outlook Demand should remain relatively stable. India's import requirements provide an important underlying source of support, while biodiesel demand benefits from higher energy prices. China's holiday closure is temporarily reducing market participation, but renewed trading activity should provide a clearer indication of Asian demand once the market reopens. Louis Roche Analysis Palm oil is currently caught between two competing forces. The short-term fundamentals are not particularly tight because inventories remain elevated and the market is approaching an important Malaysian supply-data release. That limits the probability of an immediate sustained breakout. However, the forward risk profile is becoming more constructive. A weaker ringgit, stronger crude oil and biodiesel economics provide immediate support, while El Niño introduces a potentially important supply risk for 2027. The MYR 4,500–5,000 range therefore remains the most relevant framework. I would view a move toward MYR 5,000 as achievable if Malaysian inventory data begins to show a tightening balance. Conversely, a failure to hold MYR 4,500 would indicate that current supply remains more than sufficient to satisfy demand. Coming Sessions The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's upcoming monthly data will be the key near-term catalyst. Traders will focus on: Malaysian production Export performance Domestic consumption Ending inventories Ringgit movements Crude oil prices Soyoil performance Indian import demand Developments in El Niño conditions The combination of inventory data and energy-market direction should determine whether palm oil continues its recovery or returns toward the lower end of its recent range. Today Markets View Today Markets remains cautiously constructive on palm oil. The recovery has fundamental support from currency and energy markets, but elevated inventories prevent a stronger bullish conviction at this stage. The market becomes significantly more interesting if Malaysian stocks begin to decline while crude oil remains firm. That combination would strengthen the case for a move above MYR 5,000. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important component of the palm oil outlook. A weaker Malaysian ringgit can support export competitiveness and improve the economics for international buyers, while movements in the US dollar can influence the purchasing power of major importing countries. For businesses exposed to palm oil purchases, edible-oil imports or biodiesel-related costs, monitoring FX alongside commodity prices can provide a clearer view of the underlying cost environment. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Wheat Prices Rally as US Planting Lags While Saudi Demand Supports the Market

Wheat prices are strengthening across the major US futures markets as slower winter wheat planting, fresh Saudi purchasing and improving export interest provide support. Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat are all trading higher, although weak US export shipments remain a significant constraint on the outlook. The market is therefore balancing developing crop-production concerns against a still-heavy global supply environment. The next phase of the move will depend on whether planting delays and international demand can generate enough support to offset weak US export performance. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactDecember CBOT Wheat$6.92¼BullishMarch 2027 CBOT Wheat$7.06¼BullishDecember KC HRW$7.42¼BullishMarch 2027 KC HRW$7.55BullishDecember Minneapolis$7.09½BullishMarch 2027 Minneapolis$7.25¼BullishUS Winter Wheat Planting36%BullishPlanting vs. 5-Year Average10 pts behindBullishWheat Export Shipments302,356 MTBearishMarketing-Year Shipments35% below last yearBearishSaudi Tender683,000 MT purchasedBullish Wheat Futures Strengthen Across the Complex Chicago SRW wheat has moved firmly higher, with December futures around $6.92¼ per bushel and March near $7.06¼. Kansas City HRW wheat is also strengthening, with December around $7.42¼ and March at approximately $7.55. Minneapolis spring wheat has shown the strongest advance, with December around $7.09½ and March near $7.25¼. The broad-based nature of the move is important. Strength across all three wheat markets suggests the rally is not limited to one specific quality or growing region. US Winter Wheat Planting Is Behind Schedule The latest Crop Progress data show US winter wheat planting at 36%. That is approximately 10 percentage points behind the five-year average. Emergence is currently around 16%. The delay is not yet necessarily a major production threat, but it increases sensitivity to weather conditions during the remaining planting window. If planting remains substantially behind normal, attention will increasingly shift toward establishment conditions and the potential impact on winter wheat yield prospects. Saudi Arabia Provides Significant Demand Support The Saudi wheat tender is an important positive development. Saudi Arabia has purchased approximately 683,000 MT of wheat, providing evidence of substantial international demand. Large tenders from major importing countries can temporarily alter the balance between available export supplies and buyer requirements. The size of the Saudi purchase is therefore helping offset some of the weakness visible in US export shipment data. It also reinforces the importance of international procurement activity as the market moves through the next phase of the crop cycle. US Wheat Exports Remain the Main Weakness US wheat export inspections remain disappointing. Shipments during the latest reporting week totalled approximately 302,356 MT, down around 10.3% from the previous week and nearly 49% below the same period last year. Cumulative marketing-year shipments have reached approximately 6.672 MMT. That is around 35% below the comparable period last year. This remains one of the biggest obstacles to a sustained US wheat rally. For prices to maintain higher levels, international demand will likely need to improve or supply-side risks will need to become more significant. International Demand Could Improve the Balance The Saudi purchase demonstrates that large importers remain active despite the weak US export numbers. The Philippines, Bangladesh and Taiwan are also important destinations for current US wheat shipments. The market will therefore be watching whether additional tenders emerge from major importers. A series of large international purchases could begin to close the gap between current US export performance and last year's pace. Supply Risks Are Becoming More Important The slower US winter wheat planting pace creates a potential supply risk, particularly if the delay persists. The market is currently more focused on planting progress than on immediate harvested supply because the next winter wheat crop is being established. Weather during the remaining planting and emergence periods will therefore be critical. At the same time, the large global supply base means that production concerns must become significant before they create a sustained structural shortage. Bullish Scenario Wheat could extend its advance if: US winter wheat planting remains substantially behind normal. Poor weather affects crop establishment. Additional large international tenders emerge. Saudi Arabia and other major importers increase purchases. US export demand improves. Global production estimates are reduced. The US dollar weakens and improves the competitiveness of US wheat. A combination of planting delays and stronger international demand would provide the strongest bullish setup. Bearish Scenario The main downside risks are: US planting accelerates rapidly. Crop establishment remains favourable. Global wheat production remains large. US exports continue running well below last year's pace. Major importers favour cheaper supplies from competing origins. The US dollar remains strong. Global inventories remain comfortable. The most important bearish factor remains the weak US export pace. Wheat Price Outlook The wheat market has established a stronger short-term technical tone, but the rally still requires fundamental confirmation. Chicago wheat is approaching the $7 area, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures are trading at higher levels. A sustained move above these psychological thresholds could attract additional speculative buying. However, the market will need to see stronger export demand or further deterioration in planting conditions to maintain the momentum. If US planting accelerates and export demand remains weak, recent gains could be vulnerable to profit-taking. Supply Outlook Near-term global wheat supply remains relatively comfortable, but the US winter wheat planting delay introduces a developing risk for the next production cycle. The market will increasingly focus on establishment conditions and winter weather as the crop progresses. Any significant deterioration could result in lower production expectations and provide additional support to futures. Demand Outlook Demand is currently mixed. The Saudi tender provides a substantial positive signal, but US export inspections remain well below last year's pace. The critical question is whether Saudi Arabia's large purchase represents the beginning of broader international procurement or an isolated transaction. A sustained series of tenders would materially improve the demand outlook. Louis Roche Analysis The wheat market is beginning to show signs of a potential change in momentum, but the rally still has something to prove. The most constructive factor is the combination of delayed US winter wheat planting and a large Saudi purchase. These developments demonstrate that both supply uncertainty and international demand can provide support. However, the US export numbers remain weak, with cumulative shipments approximately 35% below last year's level. That is a substantial deficit and means the market cannot rely solely on international demand unless buying activity accelerates. In my view, the $7 area in Chicago wheat is an important psychological threshold. A sustained move through that level, supported by further international tenders and continued planting delays, would strengthen the bullish case. If planting catches up quickly and export demand remains weak, the market could instead return to consolidation. The next phase will therefore be determined by whether fresh demand can validate the recent price strength. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: US winter wheat planting progress. Crop emergence and establishment conditions. Weather across the US Plains. Additional Saudi and international wheat tenders. US weekly export inspections. US export sales. Global production estimates. Competing export prices from Russia, Europe and other major suppliers. Currency movements affecting US export competitiveness. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a cautiously bullish near-term view on wheat. The broad-based strength across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis futures is constructive, while the 683,000 MT Saudi purchase provides evidence that international buyers remain active. However, US exports remain significantly behind last year's pace, creating a major fundamental obstacle. The next bullish confirmation would come from a combination of continued planting delays and additional large international purchases. If those factors develop, wheat could establish a stronger move above the $7 level in Chicago. Currency Hedger View Wheat is traded internationally in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of global purchasing and export economics. For US wheat exporters, a weaker dollar can improve competitiveness in international tenders, while importers face additional currency exposure when purchasing dollar-denominated grain. With international tenders becoming increasingly important to the wheat price outlook, managing FX exposure alongside physical commodity exposure can help commercial businesses better control their overall purchasing and trading risk. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Soybeans Hold Firm as US Harvest Lags and Export Demand Accelerates

Soybean prices are holding firm as strong US export demand offsets pressure from the approaching US harvest. November soybeans are trading around $12.81 per bushel, while deferred contracts continue to carry a modest premium as traders assess slower harvest progress, improving export commitments and the outlook for the new Brazilian crop. The latest data present a mixed fundamental picture. US harvest progress is behind normal, crop conditions have weakened slightly and weekly shipments have accelerated. At the same time, Brazil's new crop is beginning to enter the ground and production is expected to remain close to record levels. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactNovember 2026 Soybeans$12.80¾SupportiveJanuary 2027 Soybeans$12.97½SupportiveMarch 2027 Soybeans$13.08SupportiveUS Crop Dropping Leaves85%NeutralUS Harvest25% completeBullish vs. normalUS Good/Excellent57%Mildly bearishWeekly US Shipments1.138 MMTBullish demand2026/27 Shipments30.9% above last yearStrongly bullishChina Shipments756,492 MTBullishBrazil Planting7.3%Mildly bullishBrazil Crop Estimate182.7 MMTBearish supply Soybeans Defend Recent Levels November soybeans have remained resilient despite initially stronger gains being pared back. The nearby contract is holding around $12.81 per bushel, while January and March contracts are trading above $12.97 and $13.08 respectively. The structure indicates that the market continues to carry some premium into the later delivery periods. That premium reflects uncertainty around the pace of US harvest supply and the strength of export demand, while traders are also beginning to look toward the Brazilian planting cycle. US Harvest Remains Behind Normal The latest Crop Progress data show 85% of the US soybean crop has reached the leaf-drop stage, while only 25% of the crop has been harvested. That leaves harvest approximately seven percentage points behind the normal pace. The delay is important because the US harvest normally creates substantial physical availability during this period. If harvest progress accelerates rapidly, increased farmer selling could put pressure on nearby prices. If delays persist, however, the market could maintain a stronger risk premium. Crop Conditions Weaken Slightly US soybean crop conditions have also deteriorated. The good-to-excellent rating has fallen one percentage point to 57%, while the Brugler500 index has declined two points to 350. The decline is relatively modest and does not currently indicate a major production problem. However, with only one-quarter of the crop harvested, the market remains sensitive to evidence that final yields could fall short of expectations. Strong Export Demand Provides Support Export demand is one of the strongest bullish features of the current soybean market. USDA has reported a private sale of 104,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations. Weekly export inspections also increased sharply, reaching approximately 1.138 MMT. That was 45.3% higher than the previous week and only 1.5% below the same week last year. China was the dominant destination, taking approximately 756,492 MT, followed by Algeria with 126,680 MT and Bangladesh with 59,219 MT. The increase in weekly shipments provides evidence that international buyers continue to take advantage of US supplies. Marketing-Year Exports Are Well Ahead Cumulative soybean shipments for the marketing year have reached approximately 3.986 MMT. That is around 30.9% above the comparable period last year. The pace is significant because strong exports can absorb a portion of the incoming US crop and reduce the amount of supply available for domestic storage. If this pace continues, export demand could become an increasingly important factor in determining whether the market can maintain prices above $12 per bushel. China Remains the Key Demand Driver China is currently the largest destination for US soybean shipments. The latest inspection data show more than 756,000 MT moving to China during the latest reporting week. China's purchasing pace will remain critical for the market because of the enormous scale of its soybean import requirements. Continued Chinese buying would provide a significant counterweight to seasonal US harvest pressure. A slowdown in Chinese purchases, however, would quickly change the balance and could expose the market to increased pressure as the US harvest accelerates. Brazil Planting Starts Slowly Brazil's soybean planting progress is currently estimated at 7.3%, compared with 9% at the same point last year. The delay is still relatively modest, but it is worth monitoring because Brazil is the world's largest soybean exporter. The slower planting pace creates some near-term uncertainty over the development of the 2026/27 Brazilian crop. AgRural currently estimates Brazilian soybean production at approximately 182.7 MMT, slightly higher than its previous estimate. That remains an enormous crop and represents an important bearish factor for the longer-term global supply outlook. Soymeal and Soy Oil Provide Mixed Signals The soybean complex is not moving uniformly. Soymeal futures have weakened modestly, while soy oil has gained between 21 and 80 points. The divergence reflects different supply and demand dynamics within the crushing complex. Stronger soy oil prices can support soybean crushing margins, while weaker meal prices can offset some of that support. The relationship between soybean prices, meal demand and vegetable oil demand will therefore remain important as the market moves through the US harvest period. Supply Outlook The immediate US supply outlook remains large, but the timing of that supply is becoming important. Only 25% of the US soybean crop has been harvested, leaving a substantial volume still in the fields. If weather allows harvest activity to accelerate, physical supplies could increase rapidly. Brazil provides the next major supply variable. Planting is slightly behind last year's pace, but the expected 182.7 MMT crop indicates that global soybean supplies are likely to remain substantial. Demand Outlook Demand is currently providing a significant counterweight to the incoming US crop. Weekly shipments are strong, cumulative exports are nearly 31% above last year's pace and China remains the largest destination. The 104,000 MT private sale also indicates that buyers continue to secure US soybeans. The key question is whether this demand strength can continue once South American supplies become available. Bullish Scenario Soybeans could move higher if: US harvest delays persist. Final US yields disappoint. Crop conditions deteriorate further. Chinese purchases remain strong. US export shipments continue above last year's pace. Brazil's planting delays become more significant. Brazilian weather threatens the new crop. Soy oil demand strengthens further. A continuation of strong export demand while the US harvest remains delayed could allow prices to establish stronger support above $12. Bearish Scenario The main downside risks are: US harvest accelerates rapidly. Large quantities of soybeans enter the physical market. Farmer selling increases. US yields exceed expectations. China reduces purchases from the United States. Brazil's crop develops toward the 182.7 MMT estimate or higher. South American weather becomes favourable. Global soybean supplies increase faster than demand. The largest bearish risk is that the current harvest delay proves temporary and the market is quickly confronted with substantial US physical supplies. Soybean Price Outlook The technical picture remains constructive while November soybeans hold above the $12 area. The deferred contracts are trading progressively higher, with January near $12.98 and March around $13.08. That structure suggests traders are not pricing an immediate collapse in prices despite the approaching US harvest. A sustained move above the recent highs could attract additional buying, particularly if export demand remains strong. Conversely, a rapid acceleration in harvest progress combined with heavier farmer selling could push nearby futures back toward lower support levels. Louis Roche Analysis Soybeans are currently benefiting from a relatively unusual combination of strong export demand and delayed harvest supply. The US crop is large, but only one-quarter has been harvested. That means the market has not yet experienced the full physical supply pressure normally associated with the October harvest window. At the same time, export shipments are running nearly 31% ahead of last year's pace, with China accounting for a substantial share of recent demand. This is important because strong exports can absorb part of the new crop before it reaches storage. The Brazilian outlook provides the longer-term counterweight. A 182.7 MMT crop would maintain significant global supply, but planting is currently behind last year's pace and weather will remain critical throughout the growing season. In my view, $12 is becoming an important psychological and technical reference point. If export demand remains strong and harvest delays continue, soybeans could build a stronger base around this level. If the US harvest accelerates and South American crop prospects improve, the market could face renewed pressure. The next major signal will come from whether export demand can continue absorbing supply faster than the US harvest releases it. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: US soybean harvest progress. US crop condition revisions. Weekly export sales and inspections. Chinese soybean purchases. US farmer selling. Brazilian planting progress. Brazilian weather. South American crop estimates. Soymeal and soy oil spreads. Evidence of changes in global demand. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a cautiously bullish near-term view on soybeans. The US harvest is behind normal, export shipments are running well ahead of last year's pace and China remains an important buyer. The principal risk is the size of the incoming US and South American crops. If harvest accelerates without a corresponding increase in export demand, prices could come under pressure. But if demand remains strong while harvest progress stays delayed, the market has room to challenge higher levels. For now, the balance remains constructive above the $12 area, with export demand the key bullish variable and South American production the major longer-term supply risk. Currency Hedger View Soybeans are priced in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of the economics for international buyers, exporters and agricultural businesses. For soybean exporters, a weaker dollar can improve international competitiveness, while importers face additional currency exposure when purchasing dollar-denominated agricultural commodities. With US and South American supply competing for global demand, currency movements can also influence the relative attractiveness of different origins. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Corn Prices Hold Near $5 as US Harvest Lags and Export Demand Strengthens

Corn futures are holding close to the $5 per bushel level as a slower-than-normal US harvest, resilient export demand and fresh sales to Mexico provide underlying support. At the same time, weaker US crop condition ratings and slower Brazilian planting are adding to the supply-side uncertainty. The market remains balanced between a large US crop entering the pipeline and evidence that international demand is keeping US export commitments ahead of last year's pace. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactDecember 2026 Corn$4.97¼Near-term neutralMarch 2027 Corn$5.11½SupportiveMay 2027 Corn$5.18½SupportiveUS Crop Maturity83%Near completionUS Harvest23% completeBullish vs. normal paceUS Good/Excellent54%BearishUS Export Shipments1.368 MMTBullish demand2026/27 Exports4.4% above last yearBullishMexico Sale129,540 MTBullishBrazil First Crop Planting38%Mildly bullish Corn Prices Remain Firm Near $5 December corn is trading around $4.97¼ per bushel, while March corn is holding near $5.11½ and May corn around $5.18½. The relatively narrow movement in nearby contracts indicates that the market is still searching for a clear catalyst. The important feature is that deferred contracts remain above the nearby December contract. This reflects expectations that the market may require stronger prices later in the marketing cycle to balance demand with available supplies. US Harvest Progress Remains Behind Normal The latest Crop Progress data show 83% of the US corn crop mature, with harvest at 23% complete. Harvest is currently around four percentage points behind the normal pace. A delayed harvest does not necessarily mean lower production, but it can create short-term uncertainty around farmer selling, transportation and the timing of physical supplies reaching the market. Weather during the remaining harvest window will therefore remain important. If conditions allow harvesting to accelerate, the market could face increased producer selling pressure. If delays continue, the nearby market could retain additional support. US Crop Conditions Deteriorate US corn conditions have weakened further. The proportion of the crop rated good to excellent has fallen to 54%, down three percentage points from the previous week. The Brugler500 index has also declined five points to 342. The deterioration is important because the market is entering the period when attention is shifting from crop potential toward actual harvested production. The lower ratings do not automatically imply a major reduction in final yields, but they reduce the margin of safety around production estimates. Mexico Provides Fresh Demand Support USDA has reported a private export sale of 129,540 MT of corn to Mexico for 2026/27 shipment. Mexico remains one of the most important destinations for US corn, and the latest sale reinforces evidence that international buyers continue to secure US supplies. This is particularly supportive because export demand is becoming an increasingly important component of the US corn balance sheet. Export Shipments Remain Above Last Year US corn export inspections totalled approximately 1.368 MMT during the latest reporting week. Although shipments were lower than the previous week, they remained approximately 13.5% above the same period last year. Mexico was the largest destination with approximately 539,844 MT, followed by Japan with 372,508 MT and Colombia with 177,792 MT. Total 2026/27 marketing-year exports have reached approximately 7.11 MMT, around 4.4% above the comparable period last year. This is one of the more constructive elements of the current corn market. The export pace suggests that global buyers remain willing to purchase US corn despite competition from other origins. Brazil Planting Progress Is Slightly Behind Brazil's first corn crop is approximately 38% planted, compared with 40% at the same point last year. The difference is relatively small, but planting progress will remain an important factor for the forward global supply outlook. Brazil is a major corn exporter and an increasingly important competitor to the United States. Any meaningful delay in Brazilian planting could become supportive if it raises concerns about production potential or the timing of future export availability. Supply Outlook The US is moving toward the bulk of its harvest, meaning physical supply should increase significantly as fieldwork progresses. That creates a potentially bearish seasonal influence. However, the slower harvest pace, weaker crop ratings and continued export demand are preventing the market from fully pricing in the availability of the new crop. The balance between the size of the US harvest and the speed at which farmers sell the crop will be critical. Brazil provides another variable, with first-crop planting slightly behind last year's pace. Demand Outlook Demand remains one of the strongest supportive factors. US export shipments are ahead of last year's pace, while the latest sale to Mexico provides additional evidence of forward demand. Japan and Colombia are also taking meaningful volumes. If the current export pace continues, the market could need to maintain relatively firm prices to ration available supplies and manage the balance between domestic usage and exports. Bullish Scenario Corn could move higher if: US harvest delays continue. Crop condition ratings deteriorate further. US yields fall below current expectations. Export demand remains above last year's pace. Additional sales to Mexico and other major buyers emerge. Brazilian planting delays increase. Farmer selling remains limited. Global feed demand strengthens. A continuation of strong export demand while the US harvest remains behind schedule would provide a constructive backdrop for prices. Bearish Scenario The main downside risks are: US harvest accelerates rapidly. Large physical supplies enter the market. Producer selling increases. Final US yields exceed expectations. Brazilian planting progresses quickly. Global buyers shift purchases toward South American supplies. US export demand slows. Feed or ethanol demand weakens. The largest bearish risk remains the possibility that the current harvest delay is temporary and a large crop quickly moves into the physical market. Corn Price Outlook Corn is currently positioned between strong seasonal supply pressure and improving demand fundamentals. A sustained move above $5 would improve the technical structure and could attract additional speculative buying. The March and May contracts already trading above $5 suggest the market is maintaining a constructive forward premium. However, confirmation will depend on whether December corn can establish sustained support around the $5 area while harvest continues. A break below nearby support would bring the large US crop back into focus. Conversely, a sustained move through $5 could open the door to a broader recovery toward higher deferred-contract levels. Louis Roche Analysis Corn is becoming increasingly dependent on the interaction between harvest supply and export demand. The US crop is clearly moving toward harvest, and that normally creates seasonal pressure as physical supplies become available. Yet the current harvest is running behind normal pace, crop conditions have deteriorated and exports remain ahead of last year's levels. The latest Mexico sale is particularly relevant because it confirms that international buyers continue to secure US corn for the next marketing cycle. The market therefore does not currently have a simple bearish supply story. In my view, the $5 level is becoming the key psychological area for corn. If export demand remains strong and harvest delays persist, the market could build a stronger base around this level. If harvest accelerates and farmer selling increases, however, prices could struggle to maintain the current premium. The next significant move is likely to be determined by actual harvested supply versus the pace of international demand, rather than by crop progress alone. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: US harvest progress. Further changes in crop condition ratings. US yield expectations. Export sales and weekly inspections. Mexican corn demand. Farmer selling activity. Brazilian first-crop planting progress. Weather across major US growing and harvesting regions. Global feed demand. Ethanol demand and US corn usage. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a neutral-to-cautiously bullish view on corn. The market is benefiting from export demand that remains ahead of last year's pace, while the US harvest is running behind normal and crop conditions have weakened. However, the arrival of the US harvest represents a significant supply test. The ability of corn to hold the $5 area while physical supplies increase will be critical. Strong exports and continued harvest delays could push prices higher, while a rapid harvest combined with increased farmer selling could place renewed pressure on nearby contracts. Currency Hedger View Corn is priced globally in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of the economics for international buyers, exporters and agricultural businesses. For US exporters, a weaker dollar can improve international competitiveness, while buyers outside the United States face additional currency exposure when purchasing dollar-denominated corn. As agricultural commodity volatility increases, managing the currency component alongside physical commodity exposure can help businesses better understand and control their overall purchasing or export risk. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Coffee Prices Rally as Brazilian Real Strengthens While Supply Outlook Remains Divided

Coffee prices are regaining momentum as a stronger Brazilian real, speculative short positioning and renewed weather concerns provide support to the market. December arabica has climbed to a 3.5-week high, while November robusta has reached a six-week high. The rally comes against a complicated fundamental backdrop. Global coffee production is expected to remain abundant, Brazil is bringing a large crop to export markets and Vietnam is reporting stronger shipments. However, declining arabica inventories, a potentially significant El Niño event and heavily short robusta positioning are creating upside risks. The market is therefore balancing near-term abundant supply against increasingly important risks to the next production cycle. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactDecember Arabica+1.32%BullishNovember Robusta+1.70%BullishBrazilian RealNear 4.5-month highBullishBrazil 2026 Crop67.6M bags estimatedBearishGlobal 2025/26 Balance3M-bag surplusBearishGlobal 2026/27 ProductionUSDA forecasts record 189.7M bagsBearishICE Arabica Stocks260,654 bagsMixedICE Robusta Stocks5,398 lotsBearishRobusta Fund Positioning3,959 net-shortPotentially bullishEl Niño RiskIncreasing weather uncertaintyBullish Coffee Prices Regain Momentum December arabica coffee has moved to its strongest level in approximately three and a half weeks, while November robusta has reached a six-week high. The recovery follows a period of significant weakness, during which coffee prices reached multi-month lows as traders focused on expectations for abundant global supplies. The latest rally suggests that the market is beginning to price a combination of currency support, speculative positioning and future weather risks. However, the fundamental picture remains mixed, meaning the durability of the move will depend heavily on whether weather concerns begin to translate into lower production expectations. Stronger Brazilian Real Supports Coffee The Brazilian real has strengthened to around a 4.5-month high against the US dollar. This is important for coffee because Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and a major exporter. A stronger real reduces the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell coffee into international markets because dollar-denominated export revenues translate into fewer reais. The currency therefore provides an additional source of support for coffee prices at a time when Brazilian supplies are still entering the global market. Robusta Short Covering Could Accelerate the Rally Robusta positioning represents an important technical risk to the upside. The latest Commitment of Traders data showed commodity funds increasing their net-short position in robusta futures by 2,658 contracts during the latest reporting week, taking the total net-short position to approximately 3,959 contracts. That is the largest net-short position in around 13 months. This creates the potential for a short-covering rally if prices continue higher. A sustained technical advance could force funds to reduce bearish positions, potentially accelerating the move beyond what current physical fundamentals alone would justify. El Niño Creates a New Production Risk Weather is becoming increasingly important to the next Brazilian crop. A developing El Niño pattern could delay rainfall during September and October, a critical period for flowering in Brazil's coffee-growing regions. A delay in rainfall during flowering could reduce flowering quality and ultimately affect production during the 2026/27 crop cycle. The US Climate Prediction Center has previously indicated that the emerging El Niño could become one of the strongest events in more than 75 years. A major El Niño would introduce the possibility of significant rainfall disruption, drought conditions and temperature volatility across coffee-producing regions in South America and Asia. Brazil Weather Currently Provides a Counterweight The immediate Brazilian weather picture is not entirely bullish. Recent rainfall in Minas Gerais — Brazil's largest arabica-producing region — has been above the historical average. Around 33.3 mm of rain was recorded during the latest reported week, approximately 104% of the historical average. Adequate rainfall during the flowering period could improve the prospects for the next crop and potentially offset some of the concern surrounding El Niño. This creates a critical tension for the market: current rainfall is supportive for future production, but the longer-term weather pattern remains uncertain. Vietnam Supplies Remain Strong Vietnam's coffee market is providing another bearish influence, particularly for robusta. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across the Central Highlands, Vietnam's primary coffee-growing region, supporting cherry development. Vietnam's September coffee exports increased approximately 53% year-on-year to 124,000 MT, while exports for January through September increased 16.2% to around 1.45 MMT. Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports also increased approximately 17.5% to 1.58 MMT. Production for the 2025/26 season is expected to rise around 6% to approximately 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags. The combination of improved growing conditions and stronger exports is therefore limiting the upside potential for robusta. Brazil Supplies Are Increasing Brazil's current harvest is reaching the export market, creating additional near-term supply pressure. Brazilian coffee exports in August increased approximately 31% year-on-year to a record 4.155 million bags for the month. Arabica exports increased around 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to approximately 954,000 bags. Separate Brazilian trade data also showed August coffee exports rising approximately 45% year-on-year. This significant export flow is one of the main reasons the market has struggled to maintain higher prices despite weather and currency support. Brazil Production Outlook Remains Large Brazil's crop outlook has improved significantly. Conab has raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to approximately 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million previously. Arabica production is expected to rise approximately 35% year-on-year to 48.21 million bags. Robusta production, however, is forecast to decline approximately 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The divergence between arabica and robusta production is important. A larger Brazilian arabica crop should keep pressure on arabica prices, while declining robusta production could provide some support to the robusta market. Global Coffee Balance Remains Comfortable The International Coffee Organization expects 2025/26 global production to increase approximately 4.4% to a record 183.6 million bags. Consumption is forecast to decline around 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That leaves the global market with an estimated surplus of approximately 3 million bags — the first surplus in five years. This remains one of the most important bearish fundamental factors facing coffee. The market therefore needs to see evidence that future weather risks are capable of offsetting the current surplus before a sustained structural bull market can develop. Inventories Send Mixed Signals Arabica and robusta inventories are moving in opposite directions. ICE arabica stocks previously fell to approximately 217,646 bags, the lowest level in 27 years, before recovering to around 260,654 bags. Although the recent inventory recovery reduces some of the immediate tightness, stocks remain historically low. Robusta inventories tell a different story. ICE robusta stocks have risen to approximately 5,398 lots, their highest level in around ten months. This divergence supports a relatively more constructive outlook for arabica than robusta from a physical inventory perspective. USDA Forecasts Record Global Production The USDA's latest outlook remains fundamentally bearish. Global coffee production for the 2026/27 season is expected to rise approximately 6% to a record 189.7 million bags. Arabica production is forecast to increase around 12%, while robusta production is expected to decline approximately 0.7%. Global ending stocks are projected to rise by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. The USDA also expects Brazil's 2026/27 crop to reach a record 71.9 million bags, approximately 14% above the previous year. These projections provide substantial resistance to the idea of a sustained supply-driven coffee rally unless weather conditions deteriorate materially. Bullish Scenario Coffee could extend its recovery if: The Brazilian real remains strong. El Niño delays rainfall during Brazilian flowering. Brazil's 2026/27 crop expectations are reduced. Arabica inventories remain historically low. Robusta funds begin covering their large short positions. Vietnam's crop or export flows disappoint. Global consumption proves stronger than expected. Weather risks spread across multiple producing regions. A combination of short covering and deteriorating weather could produce a rapid upside move, particularly in robusta. Bearish Scenario The main downside risks are: Brazil's large crop continues entering export markets. Brazilian rainfall remains favourable during flowering. Vietnam's production continues improving. Global exports remain strong. ICE robusta inventories continue rising. Global production reaches or exceeds current USDA forecasts. The 2025/26 surplus persists into the next season. El Niño produces less agricultural disruption than currently feared. The most significant bearish factor remains the expectation of record global production. Coffee Price Outlook The short-term outlook has improved, but the longer-term direction remains uncertain. Arabica has stronger support from historically low inventories and the potential for weather-related production risk. Robusta has additional upside potential because of the unusually large speculative short position. However, the market is still dealing with substantial physical supply. The next major directional signal will likely come from the interaction between Brazilian weather and fund positioning. If rainfall remains favourable and production estimates continue rising, the recent rally could fade. If weather deteriorates while funds begin covering shorts, the recovery could accelerate considerably. Supply Outlook Near-term supply remains relatively abundant. Brazil is exporting a large crop, Vietnam is increasing shipments and global production is expected to reach record levels. The risk lies further ahead. Brazilian flowering conditions, El Niño and the next crop cycle could significantly alter the current supply outlook. The market therefore needs to distinguish between today's abundant physical availability and tomorrow's production risk. Demand Outlook Demand remains an important stabilising factor, although current global consumption forecasts do not point to an immediate shortage. The ICO expects consumption to remain below production during 2025/26, producing the first global surplus in five years. For prices to sustain a major upside trend, demand would either need to strengthen or production estimates would need to decline. Louis Roche Analysis Coffee is currently caught between two very different narratives. The first is the abundant supply story: Brazil is producing a large crop, exports are strong, Vietnam is shipping more coffee and the USDA expects another record global crop. The second is the future supply-risk story: El Niño could disrupt Brazilian flowering, arabica inventories remain historically low and robusta funds are carrying one of their largest short positions in more than a year. The Brazilian real adds another layer to the equation because its recent strength reduces the incentive for Brazilian producers to accelerate export selling. In my view, the current rally should be treated as a developing recovery rather than confirmation of a new long-term bull market. The key risk is that the market has become increasingly sensitive to weather. If Brazil receives favourable rainfall throughout the flowering period, the large global supply outlook will regain control. But if rainfall deteriorates and El Niño becomes disruptive, the market could move quickly because speculative positioning provides significant fuel for short covering. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: Brazilian rainfall and flowering conditions. El Niño forecasts and potential agricultural impacts. The Brazilian real against the US dollar. Brazil's export volumes. Vietnam's coffee exports and Central Highlands weather. ICE arabica and robusta inventories. Commodity fund positioning. Revisions to Brazil's 2026/27 crop estimates. USDA and ICO global production expectations. Evidence of changes in global consumption. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a neutral-to-cautiously bullish near-term view on coffee. The recent rally has credible support from currency strength, historically low arabica inventories and the potential for robusta short covering. However, the fundamental supply outlook remains a significant constraint. Record or near-record global production, strong Brazilian exports and improving Vietnamese supplies could limit the duration of the rally unless weather risks begin reducing future crop expectations. The next major move is likely to depend on whether weather risk or abundant supply becomes the dominant market narrative. Currency Hedger View The Brazilian real remains an important component of the coffee price equation. A stronger real can reduce Brazilian producer selling and therefore reinforce upward pressure on international coffee prices. For coffee exporters, importers and commercial businesses, the combination of commodity volatility and USD/BRL movements can materially affect margins. Managing the currency exposure alongside the underlying coffee exposure can therefore become increasingly important as the market enters a more volatile weather-sensitive period. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Sugar Prices Surge as Weather Risks and Global Deficit Concerns Tighten the Global Outlook

Sugar prices are strengthening sharply as adverse weather, tightening production expectations and a deteriorating global supply outlook encourage renewed fund buying. March NY world sugar #11 is trading around its highest level in 19 months, while London white sugar has reached a 1.5-month high. The market is increasingly focused on the possibility that the global sugar balance could move from surplus into deficit during the 2026/27 season. Brazil, India and Thailand remain central to the outlook, with rainfall disruption, weaker production expectations and the growing risk of El Niño creating a more supportive environment for prices. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactMarch NY Sugar #11+4.01%Strongly bullishDecember London White Sugar #5+3.03%Strongly bullishBrazilHeavy rainfall disrupting harvesting and crushingBullishBrazilian RealNear a 4.5-month highBullish2026/27 Global BalanceISO sees 200,000 MT deficitBullishThailandProduction potentially down 17%BullishIndiaWeakest monsoon in 11 yearsBullishEl NiñoRisk of major weather disruptionBullish2025/26 Global BalanceRecord crop and 1.1 MMT surplusBearish longer term Sugar Prices Break Higher March NY world sugar #11 has advanced sharply and is trading around a 19-month nearest-futures high. December London ICE white sugar #5 has also moved firmly higher, reaching its strongest level in approximately six weeks. The strength reflects more than technical buying. Fund positioning is increasingly responding to the possibility of tighter physical supply, particularly as weather disruption begins to affect Brazil's harvest and crushing schedule. The combination of supply concerns and a stronger Brazilian real is particularly important because Brazil remains the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. Brazil Weather Becomes a Key Supply Risk Persistent rainfall across Brazil's Center-South sugar-growing region is slowing harvesting and disrupting cane crushing at mills. That creates two potential effects for the sugar market. First, delayed harvesting can reduce the immediate flow of sugar into the export market. Second, prolonged adverse conditions can affect the quality and timing of the crop entering the processing system. Brazil's production outlook is therefore becoming an increasingly important price driver as the market looks ahead to the next global production cycle. USDA expectations currently point to Brazilian 2026/27 sugar production falling around 3% year-on-year to 42.5 MMT. Stronger Brazilian Real Adds Further Support The Brazilian real has strengthened sharply against the US dollar and is trading around a 4.5-month high. A stronger real can reduce the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell sugar into international markets because dollar-denominated export revenues translate into fewer reais. This creates an additional layer of support for futures prices at a time when weather is already disrupting the physical supply chain. If the real remains firm while Brazil's harvest continues to experience delays, the combination could maintain upward pressure on sugar. Global Deficit Risk Is Growing The global sugar balance is becoming increasingly supportive. The International Sugar Organization currently projects a 200,000 MT global sugar deficit for 2026/27, compared with a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Other analysts are also becoming more cautious about global availability. Covrig Analytics has moved from expecting a surplus to forecasting a 300,000 MT deficit for 2026/27. StoneX has also significantly increased its projected deficit, while Czarnikow sees the potential for a much larger 2027/28 deficit of approximately 2.9 MMT. The differing estimates highlight considerable uncertainty, but the direction of travel is becoming clearer: the market is moving away from the exceptionally comfortable supply conditions associated with the 2025/26 crop. Thailand Faces Production Pressure Thailand is another major concern. The Thai Sugar Millers Corporation expects 2026/27 sugar production to potentially fall by around 17% year-on-year to approximately 10 MMT. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, meaning a significant reduction in output could have an outsized impact on global export availability. USDA estimates are also bearish for Thai production, projecting a decline of approximately 15.6% to 9.5 MMT. A sustained reduction in Thai production would increase the importance of Brazil and other major exporters in meeting global demand. India Weather Raises Additional Concerns India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, making its production outlook another critical component of the global balance. India's cumulative June-September monsoon rainfall was reported at 12.6% below normal by the end of September, representing the weakest monsoon performance in approximately 11 years. The concern is particularly significant because sugar production depends heavily on sufficient rainfall during key stages of the growing cycle. India has already taken steps that indicate tighter domestic supply conditions. Authorities have permitted up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31. India is normally a major sugar exporter, so the return to substantial import requirements would represent a meaningful change in the global supply picture. El Niño Adds a Longer-Term Weather Risk The potential development of a strong El Niño is becoming one of the most important forward-looking risks for the sugar market. A significant El Niño could alter rainfall patterns across Brazil, India and Thailand — three of the world's most important sugar-producing regions. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern developing across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than seven decades. For sugar traders, the concern is not simply lower production in one country. Simultaneous weather disruption across several major producers could materially tighten the global balance. 2025/26 Supply Still Provides a Cushion Despite the increasingly bullish 2026/27 outlook, the current global supply situation is not yet structurally tight. The ISO expects 2025/26 global sugar production to reach a record approximately 182 MMT, up 3.5% year-on-year. The organization also expects a 1.1 MMT global surplus for the season, although this is substantially smaller than its previous 2.2 MMT estimate. This creates an important distinction for the market: current inventories and production provide some protection against an immediate supply shortage, but the forward balance is becoming considerably tighter. Global Production and Consumption Outlook USDA forecasts global 2026/27 sugar production at approximately 184.854 MMT, down from 186.056 MMT in 2025/26. At the same time, global human consumption is expected to increase around 0.4% to a record 179.991 MMT. Global ending stocks are projected to rise approximately 2% to 44.410 MMT. The inventory projection provides some downside protection against an immediate supply crisis, but it does not eliminate the risk that weather-related production losses could tighten the market more aggressively than current forecasts suggest. Bullish Scenario Sugar could extend its advance if: Brazil's rainfall continues delaying harvesting and cane crushing. The Brazilian real remains strong. Thailand production falls toward or below 10 MMT. India's weak monsoon reduces production expectations. El Niño develops into a major weather event. Global 2026/27 production estimates continue to decline. Fund buying accelerates following the recent technical breakout. The global deficit becomes larger than current forecasts. A combination of production reductions across Brazil, India and Thailand could create a significantly tighter global market than current balance-sheet estimates imply. Bearish Scenario The main downside risks are: Brazil's harvest accelerates as weather conditions improve. Global production remains closer to record levels. El Niño fails to produce significant agricultural disruption. India's production recovers strongly. Thailand's crop performs better than currently expected. Global inventories remain sufficient to meet consumption. Speculative buying becomes overextended and triggers profit-taking. The 2025/26 record crop and existing global stocks remain important buffers against a sudden physical shortage. Sugar Price Outlook The technical and fundamental outlook has turned increasingly constructive. The break to a 19-month high in NY sugar indicates that the market is beginning to price a more difficult supply environment. However, after such a rapid advance, periods of profit-taking and consolidation should be expected. The key question is whether the market can maintain its gains after the initial weather premium has been established. A sustained move higher would strengthen the case for the market to test progressively higher resistance levels, particularly if Brazil's harvest remains disrupted and global deficit forecasts continue to expand. Conversely, a significant improvement in Brazilian weather or evidence that India's production will recover could trigger a correction. Supply Outlook Global supply is becoming more uncertain. Brazil remains the largest source of exportable sugar, but delayed harvesting and weaker production expectations are creating immediate concerns. Thailand is facing a potentially significant production decline, while India is dealing with weaker rainfall and has already authorised raw sugar imports. The market therefore faces a potentially tighter 2026/27 supply balance despite relatively comfortable conditions during the current season. Demand Outlook Global sugar consumption continues to trend higher. USDA expects 2026/27 human consumption to reach a record level, providing a stable underlying demand base. Demand is unlikely to be the primary driver of the current rally, however. The market is increasingly being driven by the possibility that production will fail to keep pace with consumption as weather risks intensify. Louis Roche Analysis Sugar is moving into a fundamentally more interesting phase. The important development is not simply that prices have rallied sharply. It is that several independent supply risks are beginning to point in the same direction. Brazil is experiencing harvesting and crushing disruption, Thailand is facing lower production expectations, India has experienced a very weak monsoon and the potential for a major El Niño creates an additional risk across all three regions. At the same time, the Brazilian real is strengthening, reducing the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell into the international market. The 2025/26 record crop means the market is not facing an immediate shortage, but the transition toward a potential 2026/27 deficit is increasingly being priced into futures. In my view, the critical factor from here is whether weather disruption becomes a temporary delay or a genuine production problem. If the latter develops across multiple producing countries, the current rally could represent the beginning rather than the end of a broader repricing of sugar. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: Brazil's Center-South harvesting and crushing pace. Brazilian weather forecasts. The Brazilian real and its impact on producer selling. El Niño development and rainfall patterns. India's post-monsoon production outlook. Thailand's crop expectations. Revisions to 2026/27 global production estimates. Fund positioning following the latest price breakout. Evidence of changes in global export availability. Today Markets View Today Markets maintains a cautiously bullish medium-term view on sugar. The immediate rally is supported by genuine fundamental factors rather than technical momentum alone. Brazil's weather disruption, a stronger Brazilian real and growing expectations of a 2026/27 global deficit are creating a more supportive environment. However, the market has moved sharply and may become vulnerable to short-term profit-taking. The key bullish signal would be continued deterioration in production expectations across Brazil, India and Thailand. If that occurs alongside stronger El Niño conditions, sugar could enter a substantially tighter supply environment. Currency Hedger View For international sugar producers, exporters and commercial buyers, the currency component is becoming increasingly important. The stronger Brazilian real can reduce the attractiveness of export selling from Brazil, potentially reinforcing the impact of weather-related supply disruption on global sugar prices. For businesses exposed to sugar purchases, exports or USD/BRL movements, managing the currency component alongside the underlying commodity exposure can become increasingly important as volatility rises. Open a Currency Hedger Account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 6, 2026

Heating Oil Remains Elevated as Tight Diesel Supplies Offset US Tax Relief Measures

US heating oil prices are holding around $4.51 per gallon, easing from recent highs as the US administration moves to expand access to tax-exempt diesel in an effort to reduce fuel costs. However, the decline remains limited, with heating oil still close to its record level of approximately $5.20 per gallon reached in September. The market remains fundamentally tight. Historically low US distillate inventories, refinery maintenance, seasonal heating demand and international supply disruptions are limiting the ability of additional policy measures to generate a sustained price decline. The key question for the coming sessions is whether new supply initiatives can overcome a refined-product market that is already operating with limited inventory buffers. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent SituationForward OutlookUS Heating OilAround $4.51/galElevated despite recent pullbackRecent RecordAround $5.20/galKey long-term resistanceUS Distillate InventoriesHistorically lowMajor price-support factorUS Refinery MaintenanceOngoingRestricting near-term product supplySeasonal DemandIncreasingPotentially bullishTax-Exempt DieselExpanded accessCould provide some domestic price reliefG7 Emergency ReservesUp to 100M barrels pledgedPotential supply offsetRussia Diesel ExportsRestrictions extendedTightens global availabilityChina Fuel ExportsOctober exports suspendedAdditional pressure on supply Heating Oil Remains Close to Record Highs Heating oil has retreated from its September peak, but prices remain historically elevated. At around $4.51 per gallon, the market is still close enough to its recent record to demonstrate that underlying refined-product tightness has not been resolved. The latest decline is therefore better viewed as a moderation in the immediate risk premium rather than confirmation that the market has entered a sustained bearish trend. For prices to move substantially lower, traders will need evidence that physical diesel and distillate availability is improving. US Tax-Exempt Diesel Could Reduce Domestic Pressure The latest US policy measure is designed to increase access to lower-cost diesel. The executive order expands the use of tax-exempt red-dyed diesel by removing the previous off-road restriction, allowing the fuel to be purchased without the applicable tax for a broader range of uses. The measure could reduce costs for some US consumers and businesses and potentially soften domestic heating-oil and diesel prices. However, it does not directly create additional refinery capacity or crude supply. That distinction is important. The policy can change the effective price paid by some users, but the underlying physical market remains constrained. G7 Emergency Diesel Reserves Could Add Supply The G7 has also pledged to release as much as 100 million barrels of diesel from strategic emergency reserves. If the full volume is released into the market, it could provide a meaningful temporary increase in refined-product availability. However, the timing and actual volume reaching the market remain important uncertainties. A reserve release could therefore limit upside pressure, but the market may need to see substantial physical volumes delivered before traders significantly reduce the current supply premium. US Distillate Inventories Remain the Main Concern The strongest bullish factor remains the low level of US distillate inventories. Stocks are at historically depressed levels heading into a period when seasonal heating demand is expected to increase. This leaves the market with relatively little margin for unexpected refinery outages, severe winter weather or further international supply disruptions. Low inventories can also amplify price movements because relatively small changes in demand or supply can have a disproportionately large impact on available stocks. Refinery Maintenance Adds Near-Term Pressure Refinery maintenance is another important factor. Seasonal maintenance can temporarily reduce refinery utilisation and limit the production of diesel and heating oil precisely when demand is beginning to increase. If refinery outages are extended or larger than expected, the refined-product market could tighten further. The coming weeks will therefore be particularly sensitive to refinery operating rates and the speed at which plants return to normal production. Global Diesel Supply Remains Constrained The US market is also being affected by international developments. Supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia are restricting global diesel availability, while Moscow has extended diesel-export restrictions. China's suspension of October fuel exports adds another layer of pressure. These developments matter because diesel is a globally traded product. Tightness in one major exporting region can quickly influence pricing in other markets. Seasonal Demand Could Become the Next Catalyst Heating demand is moving into a more important phase as the northern hemisphere approaches winter. A colder-than-normal start to the heating season would increase demand for heating oil and diesel, placing further pressure on already-low inventories. Conversely, mild weather would provide the market with some breathing room and could allow inventories to rebuild. Weather forecasts will therefore become increasingly important to the price outlook. Bullish Scenario Heating oil could move back towards its recent highs if: US distillate inventories remain historically low. Refinery maintenance restricts production. Winter demand increases faster than expected. Cold weather raises heating-oil consumption. Russian diesel restrictions remain in place. Middle Eastern disruptions continue. China keeps fuel exports restricted. G7 reserve releases prove smaller or slower than expected. Under this scenario, the market could retest the $5.20 per gallon area. Bearish Scenario Prices could move lower if: G7 reserve releases provide significant additional supply. US refinery utilisation increases. Distillate inventories begin rebuilding. Winter weather remains relatively mild. Russian supply restrictions are eased. Chinese exports resume. The US tax exemption reduces effective domestic fuel costs and weakens immediate demand pressure. A sustained move below the recent $4.50 area would strengthen the argument that the market is beginning to move away from its extreme supply-tightness phase. Heating Oil Price Outlook The near-term outlook remains cautiously bullish despite the latest decline. The market has already moved significantly higher this year, meaning a further rally could become increasingly vulnerable to profit-taking if supply conditions improve. However, the combination of historically low inventories, refinery maintenance and rising seasonal demand provides a strong underlying floor. The key technical and psychological level remains the September high near $5.20 per gallon. A move back above that area would signal renewed extreme tightness. A sustained break below $4.50, meanwhile, would indicate that the market is beginning to respond more effectively to additional supply and policy measures. Supply Outlook Near-term supply remains constrained by refinery maintenance and international export restrictions. The G7 reserve programme could provide a meaningful counterweight, but the market will focus on how quickly those barrels become physically available. The return of Chinese exports and any relaxation of Russian restrictions would also materially improve the global supply outlook. For now, however, the supply cushion remains limited. Demand Outlook Demand is becoming increasingly important as the northern hemisphere moves towards winter. Heating oil consumption typically becomes more sensitive to weather during this period, while diesel demand remains linked to transportation, industrial activity and economic conditions. A cold winter combined with low inventories would create the most bullish demand scenario. A mild winter would reduce pressure and give refiners more time to rebuild stocks. Louis Roche Analysis Heating oil is currently being pulled in two directions. Today, policy measures and potential emergency stock releases are creating a bearish counterweight to the market's tight physical fundamentals. Looking forward, however, low US distillate inventories, refinery maintenance and the approaching heating season remain the more important risks. The tax exemption should not be confused with a structural increase in diesel supply. It can reduce the tax burden for eligible users, but it does not immediately increase refinery output or international availability. The G7 reserve release is potentially more significant because it can add physical supply. The key question is whether the volume and timing are sufficient to materially rebuild the market's inventory buffer. For the coming sessions, I would therefore remain focused on US distillate inventories, refinery utilisation, weather forecasts and global diesel flows. Until those indicators show a meaningful improvement, the downside in heating oil may remain limited. Coming Sessions The market will be watching: US distillate inventory data Refinery utilisation and maintenance Winter weather forecasts G7 emergency reserve releases Russian diesel-export restrictions Chinese fuel-export policy Middle Eastern supply disruptions US diesel and heating-oil demand Crude oil prices US dollar movements The interaction between physical inventories and seasonal demand should determine whether the recent pullback develops into a deeper correction or becomes another pause before prices attempt to retest the September high. Today Markets View Today Markets sees heating oil as fundamentally tight with significant upside risk, despite short-term policy-driven pressure. The market needs a sustained improvement in physical supply before the recent record levels can be considered fully behind it. Low inventories heading into the heating season remain the central risk, while emergency reserve releases and expanded tax-exempt diesel access represent the principal bearish counterweights. For now, the market remains highly sensitive to any unexpected disruption to refining, imports or winter supply. Currency Hedger View Heating oil is priced in US dollars, making currency movements an important secondary consideration for international buyers, distributors and businesses exposed to refined-product costs. A stronger US dollar can increase the effective cost of heating oil and diesel for non-US buyers, while dollar weakness can provide some relief even when the underlying commodity price remains elevated. For businesses with significant energy purchases, the combination of fuel-price volatility and FX exposure can create a double layer of margin risk. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between commodity prices, interest rates, central-bank policy, the US dollar and global market conditions to help businesses assess and manage their currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Cocoa Prices Rally as West African Weather Risks Collide With Rising Global Stocks

Cocoa prices are strengthening sharply as weather-related supply concerns in West Africa begin to compete with evidence of abundant current-season production and rising exchange inventories. December ICE New York cocoa is around $5,870 per metric ton, while December London cocoa is also advancing, with both markets reaching two-week highs. The immediate catalyst is heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast, where damaged roads and bridges are disrupting the movement of cocoa to ports. Beyond the current logistical problems, the potential development of a strong El Niño pattern is creating a more significant medium-term risk to the 2026/27 West African crop. The market therefore faces a growing contrast between abundant nearby supply and potentially tighter future production. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent SituationForward OutlookDecember NY CocoaAround $5,870/MTShort-term momentum improvingDecember London CocoaAround £4,400/MTFollowing NY higherIvory Coast shipments2.18 MMTStrong current supplyIvory Coast 2025/26 production2.06 MMTUp 30% year-on-yearICE inventories3.53 million bagsHighest in 2.25 yearsIvory Coast 2026/27 crop estimateAround 1.8 MMTPotential 18% declineGhana 2026/27 crop estimate650,000 MTAround 13% lowerGlobal surplus estimatesNarrowingIncreasing medium-term supportEl Niño riskIncreasingPotential threat to West African yields Cocoa Prices Regain Momentum Cocoa futures are showing strong upside momentum after falling to approximately two-and-a-quarter-month lows last week. December New York cocoa has gained more than 3% in the latest move, while London cocoa is also advancing by more than 3%. The recovery indicates that traders are beginning to place greater weight on weather and logistical risks following the recent sell-off. However, the rally is developing against a backdrop of significantly higher inventories and strong current-season production. That means the market still needs confirmation that the emerging 2026/27 supply risks are large enough to offset the availability of cocoa from the current crop. Heavy Rainfall Disrupts Ivory Coast Deliveries The immediate supply concern is centred on Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer. Excessive rainfall has reportedly damaged roads and bridges, making it more difficult for farmers and traders to move cocoa towards export ports. This type of disruption can have an outsized short-term impact on futures because the market is highly sensitive to changes in the timing of physical deliveries. If the logistical problems persist, the market could begin pricing a temporary tightening of nearby availability even though overall production remains strong. El Niño Creates a Bigger Medium-Term Risk The more important issue for the coming months is weather. The US Climate Prediction Center expects the developing El Niño pattern to potentially become one of the strongest in more than seven decades. El Niño conditions can produce warmer and drier weather across parts of West Africa. For cocoa, that can reduce soil moisture, increase stress on trees and negatively affect pod development and final yields. This is particularly important because early indications for the 2026/27 crop are already showing weaker cherelle formation and below-average pod development. If dry conditions develop at the wrong stage of the crop cycle, the market could move rapidly from a situation of surplus supply towards a much tighter production outlook. Ivory Coast Production Remains a Major Bearish Factor Despite the weather concerns, current Ivory Coast production remains exceptionally strong. The country's cocoa regulator reported approximately 2.06 million metric tons harvested during the 2025/26 season, representing an increase of around 30% from the previous season. Cumulative shipments have also reached approximately 2.18 million metric tons, around 19.8% above the comparable period. This provides the market with substantial nearby supply and remains one of the strongest arguments against an extended price rally in the immediate term. The critical question is whether this strong supply can continue into the new marketing year. ICE Cocoa Inventories Reach a Two-Year High Exchange inventories are another significant bearish consideration. ICE cocoa inventories have risen to approximately 3.53 million bags, the highest level in around two-and-a-quarter years. Higher exchange stocks indicate that physical availability is currently more comfortable than it was during previous periods of cocoa tightness. For prices to sustain a major recovery, the market will need to see either inventory growth slow or demand improve sufficiently to absorb the available supply. 2026/27 Ivory Coast Crop Faces Increasing Risk The outlook becomes considerably more supportive further forward. Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop suggest poor cherelle formation and weaker pod development. Current estimates place the coming crop at approximately 1.8 million metric tons, potentially around 18% below the approximately 2.2 million tons produced during 2025/26. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine have also increased concerns about black pod disease, potentially affecting both yields and bean quality. This creates a potential supply problem for the second half of the current price cycle even if inventories remain comfortable in the near term. Ghana Production Outlook Is Also Deteriorating Ghana provides another bullish supply signal. The country's cocoa authorities have reduced expectations for the 2026/27 crop, with estimates around 650,000 MT, approximately 13% below the previous season's 750,000 MT. COCOBOD has provided an even wider potential production range of approximately 450,000 to 550,000 MT, citing swollen shoot disease, ageing farms and the risk of adverse El Niño weather. Ghana's current production remains strong, with approximately 750,000 MT harvested during 2025/26, but the forward outlook is becoming considerably less comfortable. Global Cocoa Surplus Could Narrow The global balance sheet is beginning to move in a more supportive direction. StoneX has reduced its estimate of the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to approximately 25,000 MT, compared with 149,000 MT previously. Transgraph Consulting has also projected a substantially smaller surplus of approximately 80,000 MT, compared with 415,000 MT during 2025/26. These estimates point towards a significant reduction in the global cushion of supply. If production declines across West Africa while demand remains stable or improves, the market could move towards a much tighter balance during the next crop cycle. Demand Remains Mixed Demand is currently providing conflicting signals. European cocoa grindings declined approximately 4.6% year-on-year in Q2, reaching the lowest level for the quarter in six years. The decline highlights continued pressure on European chocolate demand and consumer spending. North American grindings, however, increased approximately 7.7% year-on-year, substantially outperforming expectations. Asian demand has also strengthened, with Q2 grindings increasing approximately 25% year-on-year. The regional divergence means the global demand picture is not uniformly weak. Chocolate Prices and Consumer Demand Demand concerns remain an important downside risk. Lindt & Sprüngli has reduced chocolate prices for a second time this year and lowered its 2026 organic sales-growth outlook to approximately 0%–2%, from an earlier forecast of 4%–6%. The company cited subdued consumer sentiment. Lower chocolate prices could eventually encourage consumption, but weaker consumer confidence and reduced discretionary spending remain potential constraints on cocoa demand. For the futures market, the key question is whether improving demand in North America and Asia can offset softer European consumption. Bullish Scenario Cocoa could extend its recovery if: Heavy rainfall continues disrupting Ivory Coast deliveries. El Niño develops into a strong West African weather threat. Ivory Coast crop development deteriorates. Ghana production falls towards the lower end of forecasts. Black pod disease damages crop quality. Global grindings remain resilient. The projected global surplus narrows further. ICE inventories begin declining. Under this scenario, the market could move beyond the current two-week highs and begin rebuilding a larger weather premium. Bearish Scenario The downside case would strengthen if: Ivory Coast logistics return to normal. Strong current-season production continues. Producer deliveries remain high. ICE inventories continue increasing. European demand remains weak. Global chocolate consumption slows. El Niño fails to produce significant damage to West African crops. In that environment, the recent rally could prove temporary and cocoa could return towards its recent lows. Cocoa Price Outlook The immediate trend has turned more constructive after the latest recovery, but the market remains caught between strong current supply and increasingly concerning future crop prospects. The first test for the bulls is whether New York cocoa can sustain its move above the recent two-week highs. A continuation higher would indicate that traders are placing greater emphasis on the 2026/27 production risks. Failure to maintain the rally, particularly alongside rising ICE inventories, would suggest that current supply remains the dominant market influence. The next major directional move is therefore likely to depend on whether weather risk or physical supply becomes the stronger narrative. Supply Outlook The short-term supply picture remains relatively comfortable. Ivory Coast production and shipments are significantly higher than the previous season, while ICE inventories have reached their highest level in more than two years. However, the forward supply outlook is becoming substantially less certain. Lower early crop estimates, weak cherelle formation, disease concerns and the potential impact of El Niño all point towards a more challenging 2026/27 production cycle. The market may therefore transition from a current surplus story to a future supply-risk story. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed geographically. European grindings are showing weakness, while North American and Asian processing activity has been considerably stronger. This divergence will remain important for prices. If Asian and North American demand continues to expand while European demand stabilises, the global market could absorb a significant portion of the available supply. Conversely, a broad deterioration in chocolate consumption would make it much harder for cocoa prices to sustain a weather-driven rally. Louis Roche Analysis Cocoa is increasingly becoming a market of two timeframes. Today, the market has abundant supply, strong Ivory Coast production and elevated ICE inventories. Those factors should limit the ability of prices to sustain an unchecked rally. Looking forward, however, the situation becomes more complicated. Early indications for the 2026/27 West African crop are weaker, Ghana's production outlook has deteriorated and the potential for a strong El Niño introduces a significant weather variable. The most important development to watch is therefore whether the market begins to discount the next crop before the current supply surplus has been fully absorbed. If that happens, cocoa could build a significant weather premium relatively quickly. For now, I see the latest rally as a constructive shift rather than confirmation of a new long-term bull market. Sustained strength above the recent highs, combined with evidence of deteriorating crop conditions or tightening inventories, would strengthen the bullish case considerably. Coming Sessions Cocoa traders will be watching: Ivory Coast rainfall and transport conditions West African crop development El Niño forecasts Ghana production estimates Ivory Coast producer deliveries ICE warehouse inventories European grindings North American grindings Asian cocoa demand Chocolate consumption trends The balance between rising current inventories and declining future production expectations will remain the central theme. Today Markets View Today Markets sees cocoa as short-term bullish but fundamentally conflicted. Current supply remains abundant, but the market is beginning to price the possibility that the next West African crop could be materially smaller. The strongest upside catalyst would be confirmation that El Niño is damaging crop development at the same time that current deliveries become disrupted. The strongest downside signal would be continued inventory growth combined with weak European demand. The market is therefore approaching an important transition point where future supply risk could become more important than today's surplus. Currency Hedger View The US dollar remains an important secondary factor for internationally traded cocoa. A stronger dollar can increase the effective cost of cocoa for buyers using other currencies, potentially placing additional pressure on international demand. Conversely, a weaker dollar can improve purchasing power for overseas buyers and provide a supportive backdrop for dollar-denominated commodities. For cocoa producers, exporters, manufacturers and international businesses with USD exposure, movements in the dollar can therefore influence margins alongside the underlying cocoa price. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, commodity prices, interest rates, central-bank policy and global macroeconomic conditions to help businesses assess their currency exposure and potential hedging requirements. Open a Currency Hedger Account:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 6, 2026

Cotton Futures Strengthen as Harvest Progress and Tight Certified Stocks Shape the Outlook

Cotton futures are starting the latest trading period on a firmer footing, with prices supported by improving nearby momentum while the market continues to assess the pace of the US harvest, crop quality and the availability of deliverable supplies. The fundamental picture remains mixed: harvest progress is advancing, but crop conditions have weakened and ICE-certified stocks remain relatively tight. The market is therefore entering the coming sessions with attention focused on whether improving physical availability from the US harvest can offset signs of tighter certified inventories and provide enough supply pressure to limit further gains. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent SituationForward OutlookOctober 2026 Cotton77.13¢/lbFirm near-term toneDecember 2026 Cotton80.86¢/lbKey benchmark for the new cropMarch 2027 Cotton83.71¢/lbHigher deferred pricing signals stronger forward valuesUS bolls opened74%Harvest continues to advanceUS harvest progress23%Around 2 percentage points ahead of normalGood/Excellent crop rating33%Down 2 percentage pointsICE certified stocks22,240 balesRelatively tight deliverable supplyCotlook A Index88.35¢/lbRemains well above futuresAdjusted World Price65.16¢/lbLower support level for eligible US cotton Cotton Prices Remain Firm Cotton futures are showing renewed strength, with the nearby October contract around 77.13 cents per pound, December near 80.86 cents, and March 2027 around 83.71 cents. The higher prices further along the futures curve are notable. The structure suggests the market is placing greater value on cotton available beyond the immediate harvest period, although this does not necessarily indicate an outright supply shortage. The key question now is whether the current strength can extend as more US cotton enters the physical market. US Harvest Progress Is Moving Forward US cotton harvesting is progressing at a relatively healthy pace. Around 74% of the crop has reached the boll-opening stage, while harvesting is approximately 23% complete, about two percentage points ahead of the normal seasonal pace. The faster harvest should gradually increase physical availability during the coming weeks. That creates a potential headwind for futures if growers continue bringing cotton to market and commercial inventories begin to rebuild. However, harvest progress alone does not guarantee increased market pressure. Quality, producer selling decisions, export demand and mill consumption will determine how much of the new crop actually reaches the market. Crop Conditions Are Becoming More Concerning The quality side of the equation is less supportive. Only around 33% of the US crop is currently rated good or excellent, representing a two-percentage-point decline. The Brugler500 index has also fallen to 290, down four points. Declining crop ratings introduce uncertainty around final production quality and yield potential. If deterioration continues through the remainder of the growing and harvesting period, the market could begin to factor in greater uncertainty over usable supply rather than simply focusing on headline harvest volumes. This provides an important counterweight to the relatively fast harvest pace. Certified Stocks Remain Tight ICE-certified cotton stocks are another important feature of the current market. Certified inventories stand at approximately 22,240 bales, after declining by 5,777 bales. Although certified stocks represent only one part of the broader cotton supply picture, the relatively low level can increase sensitivity in the futures market, particularly if nearby demand strengthens or additional deliverable supplies fail to enter warehouses. This could provide continued support to nearby contracts even as the US harvest progresses. Cash Market and Global Benchmarks The Seam reported sales of 1,109 bales at an average price of approximately 74.16 cents per pound, providing an indication of current physical-market activity. The Cotlook A Index is around 88.35 cents, while the Adjusted World Price is approximately 65.16 cents. The difference between these benchmarks and futures prices highlights the importance of global physical-market conditions, trade flows and the competitiveness of US cotton. For the futures market, the direction of export demand will become increasingly important as the new crop becomes available. Crude Oil and the US Dollar The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed for cotton. Crude oil prices have recently moved lower, reducing some of the cost pressure associated with agricultural production and transportation. At the same time, the US dollar remains relatively firm. A stronger dollar can make US cotton less competitive for international buyers, potentially creating a headwind for export demand. Conversely, any sustained dollar weakness would improve the purchasing power of overseas buyers and could provide additional support to US export prospects. The relationship between the dollar and cotton will therefore remain an important variable during the coming sessions. Bullish Scenario Cotton could extend its advance if: Crop conditions deteriorate further. ICE-certified stocks remain tight. Export demand improves. The US dollar weakens. Producer selling remains restrained. Concerns increase over final crop quality or yield. Global textile demand improves. Under this scenario, December cotton could continue challenging higher resistance levels as the market begins placing greater value on available high-quality supplies. Bearish Scenario The downside case would strengthen if: US harvest progress accelerates further. Producer selling increases. Physical inventories rebuild. Export demand remains subdued. The US dollar strengthens. Global textile demand remains weak. Crop production ultimately proves larger than currently expected. A sustained increase in available US supplies could put pressure on the futures curve and make it increasingly difficult for cotton to maintain its recent advance. Cotton Price Outlook The near-term bias remains cautiously constructive, but the market is approaching a period where harvest pressure could become increasingly important. December cotton around 80.86 cents is the key reference point for the new-crop market. A sustained move above this area would improve the technical outlook and could encourage further buying towards the mid-80-cent region. Conversely, failure to hold the recent advance would bring the upper-70-cent area back into focus. The market is therefore entering a potentially important transition between harvest pressure today and supply-quality concerns further ahead. Supply Outlook US physical supply should continue increasing as harvesting advances. The faster-than-normal harvest pace suggests that additional cotton will become available relatively quickly. However, declining crop ratings and the possibility of quality variability could reduce the amount of premium-quality cotton available to mills and exporters. The key issue for the coming weeks will therefore be usable supply rather than simply total harvested volume. Demand Outlook Demand remains the critical variable capable of determining whether current price strength can persist. US export competitiveness will be influenced by the dollar, while global textile consumption will determine the underlying requirement for raw cotton. If international demand improves at the same time that US crop quality deteriorates, the market could face a tighter balance than the headline harvest figures suggest. Louis Roche Analysis Cotton is entering a more complicated phase. The harvest is progressing ahead of normal, which should eventually increase physical availability and potentially create seasonal pressure on futures. At the same time, crop quality is deteriorating and ICE-certified stocks remain low. That combination makes the current market less straightforward than a simple “larger harvest equals lower prices” scenario. The forward futures curve is also important. With December cotton around 80.86 cents and March 2027 around 83.71 cents, the market is assigning greater value to supply further forward. For the coming sessions, I would focus particularly on December cotton around 80 cents, certified-stock movements, US export demand and the direction of the US dollar. If the market can maintain prices above 80 cents despite continued harvest progress, that would suggest the underlying demand and supply-quality concerns are strong enough to absorb additional physical cotton. If harvest pressure begins to dominate and export demand remains weak, the market could instead retreat towards the upper-70-cent region. Coming Sessions The cotton market will remain focused on: US harvest progress Crop-quality developments ICE-certified inventory changes US export demand Global textile consumption US dollar direction Crude oil and broader commodity-market conditions Producer selling activity The interaction between improving physical availability and tight certified stocks should determine whether the recent upward momentum can continue. Today Markets View Today Markets sees cotton entering the coming sessions with a cautiously bullish but fundamentally balanced outlook. The immediate upside case is supported by tight certified stocks and weakening crop conditions, while the principal downside risk comes from the accelerating US harvest and the potential increase in producer selling. The market's ability to hold the 80-cent area in December cotton will be an important signal for the next phase of price direction. Analysis: Louis Roche – Today Markets Disclaimer: Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

Baltic Dry Index Slides as Capesize Freight Rates Point to Softer Bulk Shipping Demand

The global dry bulk freight market is showing renewed weakness, with the Baltic Dry Index falling to 3,070 points, its lowest level in more than a month. The decline reflects weaker rates across the major vessel classes, led by a sharper drop in Capesize freight. The move is important for commodity markets because dry bulk shipping rates provide an indication of the balance between vessel availability and demand for transporting major raw materials such as iron ore, coal and grain. While the smaller Supramax segment is showing limited resilience, the broader market is currently facing pressure as shipping demand and cargo flows adjust. Market Snapshot IndicatorLatest ReadingChangeBaltic Dry Index3,070-2.5%Capesize Index4,833-4.2%Panamax Index2,364-0.3%Supramax Index1,790+0.1%Market TrendSofterCapesize leading decline Baltic Dry Index Loses Momentum The Baltic Dry Index has fallen to its lowest level since late August after two consecutive sessions of gains. The 2.5% decline suggests that the recent improvement in dry bulk freight rates is losing momentum. The broader direction will now depend on cargo demand, vessel availability and commodity trading activity across the major shipping routes. Dry bulk freight markets can move quickly when commodity buyers alter procurement patterns or when vessel supply changes, making the Baltic index an important indicator for the wider commodity complex. Capesize Rates Lead the Decline The Capesize segment is currently the weakest part of the market. The index has fallen 4.2% to 4,833, its lowest level since late August. Capesize vessels generally carry large cargoes of around 150,000 tonnes, making them particularly important for the transportation of iron ore and coal. A sustained decline in Capesize rates could indicate softer demand for major bulk commodities or increased vessel availability on key routes. Iron ore demand will remain particularly important. Any reduction in steel production, particularly across major Asian markets, could reduce demand for large-capacity vessels and place further pressure on Capesize freight rates. Panamax Market Remains Under Pressure The Panamax index is showing a more moderate decline, falling 0.3% to 2,364. Panamax vessels typically transport approximately 60,000–70,000 tonnes of cargo and play a significant role in coal and agricultural commodity transportation. The relative stability of this segment suggests that demand for some grain and coal flows remains more resilient than the large-volume iron ore market. However, the lack of upward momentum means the Panamax market is not currently providing a strong bullish signal for global dry bulk demand. Supramax Provides Limited Support The Supramax index has moved marginally higher to 1,790, gaining 0.1%. The modest improvement highlights a divergence within the dry bulk market. Smaller vessels can serve a broader range of routes and cargoes, potentially giving the Supramax segment greater flexibility when demand for large-volume shipments weakens. However, the increase is currently too small to offset the declines in Capesize and Panamax rates. Commodity Demand Remains the Key Driver The Baltic Dry Index is closely connected to the physical movement of commodities. Iron ore, coal and grains represent important components of global dry bulk shipping demand. Consequently, changes in industrial production, steel output, power generation, agricultural exports and global trade flows can all influence freight rates. The current decline therefore deserves attention beyond the shipping sector. If freight rates continue to weaken, it could signal that commodity buyers are becoming more cautious or that available vessel capacity is increasing relative to cargo demand. Iron Ore and Steel Market Outlook Capesize freight remains particularly sensitive to the iron ore trade. The outlook for global steel production will therefore be important for determining whether the recent decline develops into a broader trend. Stronger steel production and increased restocking could generate additional iron ore shipments and provide support for Capesize rates. Conversely, weaker steel demand, high inventories or reduced production could limit cargo volumes and keep pressure on the freight market. Coal and Grain Flows The Panamax market provides a useful indicator for coal and agricultural commodity transportation. Coal demand remains dependent on power generation, industrial activity and energy prices, while grain shipping is influenced by harvests, export availability and global food demand. A sustained decline in Panamax rates would suggest broader weakness across these cargo flows. At present, however, the relatively small decline indicates that the market is experiencing a moderation rather than a major collapse in demand. Bullish Scenario A recovery in global industrial activity could quickly improve dry bulk shipping demand. Higher steel production, increased iron ore purchases and stronger coal flows would support Capesize and Panamax rates. An increase in grain exports could provide additional support for Panamax and Supramax vessels. Under this scenario, the Baltic Dry Index could regain upward momentum as cargo demand absorbs available vessel capacity. Bearish Scenario The main downside risk is a broader slowdown in global commodity demand. Weak industrial production, lower steel output or reduced Chinese commodity imports could place further pressure on Capesize rates. At the same time, increased vessel availability could amplify the decline if fleet capacity grows faster than cargo demand. A sustained move lower across Capesize, Panamax and Supramax would provide a stronger indication that the weakness is becoming structural rather than temporary. Freight Market Outlook The immediate outlook is cautious. The Baltic Dry Index remains at elevated levels compared with much weaker periods in the global shipping cycle, but the recent decline highlights the market's sensitivity to changes in commodity demand and vessel availability. The Capesize segment is the key area to watch. Continued weakness below the recent range would suggest that demand for large-volume iron ore and coal shipments is becoming less supportive. The relative stability of Panamax and Supramax rates provides some balance, but these segments would need to strengthen materially to offset a prolonged Capesize decline. Commodity Market Implications The freight market is not a direct price signal for commodities, but it provides useful information about physical trade conditions. A rising Baltic Dry Index generally indicates stronger demand for shipping capacity relative to available vessels, while a falling index can reflect weaker cargo demand, greater vessel availability or changes in trade routes. For commodities, the next important question is whether the decline in freight rates remains isolated to shipping or begins to coincide with weaker physical demand for iron ore, coal and agricultural products. Louis Roche Analysis The current Baltic Dry Index decline is worth watching because the weakness is being led by Capesize vessels, rather than being confined to the smaller segments. Capesize freight is closely connected to the movement of iron ore and coal, meaning the latest move could become a broader signal for industrial commodity demand if the trend persists. I would not interpret one decline as evidence of a major deterioration in global trade. Freight markets are highly sensitive to vessel positioning, route availability and short-term cargo scheduling. However, the next phase will be important. If Capesize rates stabilise while Panamax and Supramax remain relatively firm, the market could simply be undergoing a short-term correction. If weakness spreads across all major vessel classes, it would provide a much stronger warning that commodity shipping demand is losing momentum. For commodity markets, the Baltic Dry Index should therefore remain on the radar as an important secondary indicator of physical demand. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on whether the Baltic Dry Index can stabilise following its move to a more than one-month low. Key areas to monitor include: Capesize freight rates Iron ore shipments and steel production Chinese commodity demand Coal transportation volumes Global grain exports Panamax and Supramax rates Vessel availability and fleet positioning Industrial production trends Global commodity trade flows A recovery in Capesize rates would improve the broader outlook, while further weakness across the major vessel classes would increase concerns about global commodity demand. Today Markets View Today Markets views the Baltic Dry Index as an important barometer of global physical commodity transportation. The current decline is not yet sufficient to signal a major deterioration in commodity demand, but the sharper weakness in Capesize freight rates warrants attention. The coming sessions should reveal whether the market is experiencing a temporary correction or the beginning of a broader adjustment in global dry bulk demand. Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

US Services Growth Eases as Price Pressures Intensify

The ISM Services PMI fell to 54.9 in September 2026 from 55.4 in August, compared with expectations of 55. The index nevertheless remained in expansion territory for a 27th consecutive month, indicating continued growth in the US services sector. Business activity eased more noticeably, with the Business Activity Index dropping to 56.5 from 61.7, while new orders also moderated to 59.8. Employment improved, moving back above the 50 threshold to 50.1 after two months of contraction. Supplier deliveries slowed, with the corresponding index rising to 53.2, while backlogs strengthened to 56.6, their highest level since July 2022. Price pressures remained a major concern, with the Prices Index climbing to 74, its highest since July 2022 and above 70 for the sixth time in seven months. Export orders weakened sharply, falling below 50 for the first time in eight months. Tariffs, fuel costs and supply-chain constraints remained key concerns for businesses.

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Commentary

October 5, 2026

ISM Services PMI expected to signal a solid US economy in September

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to show the sector’s resilience in September.  The US services sector is expected to remain well into expansionary territory. Bets of further Fed tightening appear to have lost traction in the last few days. On Monday, we’ll get the latest read on the US services sector when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes its September gauge. Consensus points to a marginal downtick to 55 from August’s 55.4. If confirmed, the reading is unlikely to significantly dent the current sector’s resilience and confidence in the broader economy. Back in August, the details from that release were mixed: hiring momentum picked up pace, with the ISM Employment Index climbing a tad to 47.8 (from 47.4). In the same line, New Orders gathered decent steam, increasing to 60.9, which hinted that demand may be picking up pace. In tandem with the steady growth, the Prices Paid Index rose to 72.6, echoing the strengthening momentum of inflation pressures. What to expect from the ISM Services PMI report? Inflation in the US is still running hotter than the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and that keeps policymakers uneasy, especially amid the still unresolved crisis in the Middle East and with the full effects of US tariffs yet to filter through the economy. The inflationary pressure in the US appears to have lost some traction in August, following the latest data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). However, Fed officials and Chair Kevin Warsh have been cautious in their latest comments, keeping the issue of (still elevated) inflation on the table and the main source of the recent increase in speculation surrounding extra rate hikes in the second half of the year.  Against that backdrop, an ISM Services PMI that lands in line with expectations probably won’t move the US Dollar (USD) much. It would simply confirm the picture of an economy that’s still resilient but still wrestling with sticky price pressures. A softer-than-expected print, though, could shake confidence and see investors probably trimming their USD holdings on fears that growth is losing momentum. When will the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index report be released, and how could it affect EUR/USD? The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday at 14:00 GMT. Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, explains that the near-term outlook for EUR/USD has markedly deteriorated since the beginning of September, coincidentally with a break below its critical 200-day SMA. Against that, Piovano argues that with spot trading near the 1.1200 yardstick, the continuation of the bearish trend should meet the next support at the May 2025 floor at 1.1064 (May 21). Further south comes the psychological 1.1000 contention zone prior to the weekly trough at 1.0732 (March 27, 2025). On the flip side, “If the pair manages to reclaim the 1.1515-1.1520 zone, where both the provisional 55-day and 100-day SMAs sit, the next target is expected to emerge at the more relevant 200-day SMA around 1.1610," Piovano adds. “Momentum indicators also suggest that further pullbacks are likely for now, although a technical bounce cannot be ruled out given that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 17, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 40 indicates that the current trend remains robust," he concludes.

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Banks

October 5, 2026

European Central Bank: Contagion risk reshapes rate expectations – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that unwanted tightening in Euro-zone financial conditions is prompting markets to pare back expectations for further ECB rate hikes. Pricing has shifted closer to MUFG’s forecast of two additional moves, which may still be too aggressive if fragmentation risks intensify, while speculation grows that the ECB could slow QT or activate its Transmission Protection Instrument. Tightening conditions challenge ECB path "The unwanted tightening in financial conditions has already encouraged market participants to scale back expectations for further ECB rate hikes in response to the energy price shock." "Market pricing for ECB hikes has moved more in line with our own forecast for two further hikes which could still prove too aggressive if the re-emergence of fragmentation risks intensify." "There is also building speculation that the ECB may have to take further policy action to ease contagion risks by slowing down QT, and/or even utilizing their Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) for the first time." "However, a decision to utilize the TPI would create the impression that the ECB is helping governments to finance their deficits." "As such, the ECB would only decide to purchase government bonds through the TPI if the purchases are temporary, and governments take action as well to tighten fiscal policy to restore investor confidence."

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Banks

October 5, 2026

Euro: Pressured yet systemic risk contained – DBS

DBS strategist Philip Wee explains that EUR/USD’s four-week decline reflects shifting risk balances, with renewed Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening overshadowing the European Central Bank (ECB) and France’s fiscal issues overshadowing US concerns. He cautions against extrapolating French stress into a broader Eurozone crisis, emphasizing that current OAT-Bund spread widening is a repricing of known problems and that ECB firewalls, including TPI, are stronger today. France risk but crisis unlikely "EUR/USD’s four-week decline reflected a changing balance of risks on both sides of the Atlantic. First, the Fed’s return to tightening and market expectations of further Fed hikes eclipsed the European Central Bank’s own tightening story." "As rising US Treasury yields lifted French OAT yields faster than Germany Bund yields, France’s fiscal problems also eclipsed America’s." "But markets should be careful about extrapolating France’s fiscal difficulties into another euro-area sovereign debt crisis. The widening OAT-Bund spread reflected a repricing of a known French fiscal problem that requires a credible response from Paris." "This differs from the 2012 crisis when Greece’s fiscal revelations triggered a “who’s next?” loss of confidence across peripheral Europe. The ECB has stronger institutional firewalls today, including the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to address country-specific stress that threatens monetary policy transmission."

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Forex Trading

October 5, 2026

Trade of the day: GBPUSD

Facts: RSI [14] is at approximately 35.9. The price is below the regression line within a narrowing ascending triangle formation. Recommendation: Buy position (LONG) on GBPUSD at market price. Target price (Take Profit; TP): 1.3850 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3025 GBPUSD (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION : The price is currently near the lower boundaries of two technical formations: a consolidation channel between approximately 1.385 and 1.302, and a narrowing ascending triangle. Looking at the regression line and the RSI indicator, the current setup creates favorable conditions for an upward correction toward approximately 1.385. Such a move would normalize the RSI level, continue the long-term uptrend, and keep the price within the consolidation channel that has been in place since mid-2024. Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical chart analysis, in particular the RSI indicator and the regression line. The target level was determined based on the local high of the consolidation channel. The protective stop loss was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and on support at the level of local lows.

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Forex Trading

October 5, 2026

Chart of the Day: EUR/USD at Lowest Since May 2025 Amid French Fiscal Crisis

Key takeaways The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1161 amid a crisis of confidence in French public finances. France proposed a controversial 2027 budget targeting €54 billion in cuts as public debt reaches 119% of GDP. French 10-year bond yields surged while the France-Germany spread exceeded 140 basis points. CFTC data shows speculative short contracts on the euro reached an all-time high. EURUSD trades below key moving averages with a medium-term bearish outlook targeting the 1.0950 – 1.1130 support zone. The euro is experiencing its worst day in weeks. The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1161, its lowest level since May 2025, following a fourth consecutive week of declines. The reason this time is not Fed policy, but a growing crisis of confidence surrounding French public finances, which is increasingly reminding investors of the scenario from the European debt crisis over a decade ago. France in the Spotlight Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu presented a controversial draft budget for 2027, projecting €54 billion in cuts aimed at preventing a rating downgrade or default. The issue is that a minority government is unlikely to push it through without concessions, and France's public debt already stands at 119% of GDP. Yields on French 10-year bonds surged last week to their highest level since 2002, and the France-Germany yield spread exceeded 140 basis points. This is the largest weekly jump in 17 years and the highest level for this spread since 2012. The market is beginning to fear a contagion effect on the rest of the eurozone, similar to 2011–2012, which in theory could force the ECB to intervene in French debt. This represents the spectre of a debt crisis from the aforementioned period. Source: World Government Bonds The situation in Spain is not helping either, where political defeat for Pedro Sánchez's government raised signals of possible snap elections, adding to the general picture of political instability in the region. Dollar Strong Despite Weaker US Data Paradoxically, a weaker-than-expected US labor market report did not aid the euro. The dollar is gaining on a flight-to-safety wave triggered by the sell-off in French debt, and the dollar index climbed to a new annual high. The market also pushed back Fed expectations: the probability of holding rates unchanged in October rose to nearly 78%, up from 36% just a week earlier. Euro Most Heavily Oversold in Positioning History What sets the current move apart is the scale of speculative positioning. CFTC data shows that the number of short contracts on the euro reached an all-time high in this data series, exceeding even the peaks of 2011–2012. At the same time, net positioning slid deep into negative territory, though still not as low as during previous oversold waves in 2015 or 2022 — this time, the market is setting records specifically on the short side rather than on net positioning. Contrarian Signals from Z-score From a purely statistical perspective, the current sell-off appears extreme. The deviation of EURUSD from its 75-day moving average reaches a Z-score of -2.6, and from its 1-year average as much as -2.8, both readings clearly exceeding the -2 threshold considered the boundary of statistical oversold conditions. Over a longer horizon, the picture is calmer: the 2-year Z-score stands at -1.2, and the 5-year remains positive (+0.3), showing that despite the drama of recent sessions, the pair is still moving within its multi-year range. Such extreme short-term readings, combined with record short exposure in the market, have historically been a precursor to rebounds, though in the face of real fiscal risk rather than just sentiment, they should not be treated as a standalone signal to take positions against the trend. EURUSD Technical Analysis on D1 On the daily chart, EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1196, amid an ongoing downward correction following an unsuccessful attempt to hold above the 2025 peak in the 1.1896–1.2083 area. Price has already broken through the 23.6% (1.16324) and 38.2% (1.13536) Fibonacci retracements, signaling a deeper-than-typical correction, and additionally trades below all three moving averages (SMA25, SMA50, SMA200) — the medium-term setup remains bearish. The key target area is the broad support zone at 1.0950–1.1130, which served as a multi-year equilibrium zone in 2023–2024, with the psychological 1.1000 level acting as its lower boundary. Only a breakout above the descending trendline would open the path toward a deeper recovery toward 1.1354–1.1632; otherwise, the dominant scenario remains a continuation of declines.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

The Week Ahead – Markets Enter a Critical Week as Europe, US Rates and AI Stocks Drive the Outlook

Global markets enter the new week with investors balancing three competing forces: renewed fiscal concerns in Europe, fading expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike and increasingly stretched valuations across the technology sector. Europe is facing the greatest immediate political and bond-market pressure, with French yields elevated and the euro under renewed pressure. At the same time, softer US labour-market data are reducing expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, providing support for equities and particularly technology stocks. The question for markets now is whether lower rate expectations can sustain the equity rally while sovereign bond yields remain historically elevated. Market Snapshot MarketCurrent SituationKey RiskEUR/USDBelow $1.12French fiscal stressFrench BondsYield spreads elevatedEurozone contagionUS 10-Year TreasuryAround 5.28%Further yield increaseUS EquitiesNear record highsNarrow market breadthNasdaq 100Record territoryEarnings expectationsS&P 500Near record highsValuation riskBrent CrudeAbove $101Inflation pressureFed Rate ExpectationsOctober hike probability fallingUSD and yieldsAI StocksStrong leadershipEarnings disappointment Europe Takes the Spotlight Europe is beginning the week under renewed pressure as fiscal and political concerns increasingly influence bond and currency markets. France remains at the centre of investor attention, with the country's bond yields rising sharply and the spread against German debt reaching levels associated with previous periods of Eurozone stress. The concern is no longer limited to France. Investors are watching whether higher borrowing costs and fiscal uncertainty begin to spread into other heavily indebted European markets. Spain is also facing renewed political uncertainty, adding another layer of risk for investors already concerned about the stability of the region's fiscal outlook. The euro is therefore entering the week on the defensive, with EUR/USD trading below $1.12. Can Europe Avoid Bond-Market Contagion? The key question is whether the deterioration in French bonds remains isolated or becomes a broader Eurozone problem. If French yields continue to rise while German yields remain comparatively stable, the widening spread could increase pressure on European policymakers. The ECB could eventually face a difficult balancing act between controlling inflation and preventing disorderly bond-market conditions. For financial markets, a further deterioration in French debt could put additional pressure on the euro and European equities. A stabilisation in French yields, however, could provide an important relief rally. Oil Remains an Important Inflation Risk Brent crude remains above $101 a barrel, keeping energy prices firmly on the radar of bond investors. The recent combination of elevated oil prices and rapidly rising sovereign yields has created a difficult environment for financial markets. A sustained decline in crude prices would provide some relief by reducing inflation expectations and potentially easing pressure on central banks. Conversely, another move higher in oil would make it more difficult for policymakers to respond to weaker growth with easier monetary policy. US Payrolls Change the Fed Narrative The latest US employment data are becoming one of the most important drivers of market expectations. Only 29,000 jobs were created in September, while unemployment increased and wage growth moderated. The combination suggests that the US labour market is losing momentum without generating additional inflationary pressure. As a result, expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen sharply. This is supporting US equities and reducing some of the upward pressure on shorter-duration Treasury yields. The next question is whether the weakness in employment represents a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a more significant deterioration in the US economy. Can US Market Breadth Broaden? The US equity market remains strong, but its internal structure continues to raise questions. The Nasdaq 100 has reached another record high, with mega-cap technology and semiconductor companies leading the advance. The S&P 500 is also close to its record level. However, market leadership remains narrow. Technology and energy have been among the strongest areas, while consumer discretionary, utilities, communications and financials have struggled. A broader participation across sectors would strengthen the case for a sustainable year-end rally. If the rally remains concentrated in a small group of AI-related companies, the market could become increasingly vulnerable to disappointment during the upcoming earnings season. Sovereign Bond Yields Remain a Major Risk The bond market remains one of the biggest potential sources of volatility. The US 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.28%, while longer-term yields remain elevated despite the reduction in expectations for an October Fed hike. The key question is whether yields have reached a peak. A sustained move lower in Treasury yields would provide relief for equity valuations, particularly technology companies whose future earnings are more sensitive to discount rates. A move above 5.5%, however, could create renewed pressure across financial markets by increasing borrowing costs and challenging equity valuations. French Yields Remain Under Pressure French bonds are likely to remain one of the most important European market indicators. The spread between French and German yields has widened significantly as investors demand greater compensation for French fiscal and political risk. A continued rise in French yields would increase pressure on the government to address the budget deficit while simultaneously raising borrowing costs. It could also test the ECB's willingness to respond if market conditions become disorderly. For the euro, another significant deterioration in French bonds could create renewed downside pressure on EUR/USD. Technology Stocks Face an Earnings Test The AI-driven equity rally is entering a more challenging phase. Technology companies are benefiting from strong expectations around artificial intelligence, data centres and semiconductor demand, but valuations increasingly depend on exceptionally strong earnings growth. Current expectations for technology-sector earnings growth are extremely high. If companies meet or exceed those expectations, the market could justify elevated valuations and maintain its leadership into the final quarter. If earnings disappoint, however, the reaction could be significant because investors are already paying substantial premiums for AI exposure. AI Investment Creates a Second Risk The AI investment cycle is also generating a large increase in corporate capital expenditure and debt issuance. The scale of investment required to build data centres, computing infrastructure and supporting networks means that technology companies and their financing partners are becoming increasingly dependent on favourable capital-market conditions. This creates a potential feedback loop. Higher bond yields increase financing costs, which can reduce the attractiveness of long-duration technology valuations. At the same time, weaker technology shares could make investors more cautious about the enormous capital commitments associated with AI infrastructure. Bullish Scenario Markets could remain constructive if several conditions develop simultaneously. A weaker US labour market could keep the Federal Reserve from tightening further, allowing Treasury yields to stabilise or decline. If US inflation continues to moderate, investors could increasingly price a more patient Fed. At the same time, strong third-quarter earnings from major technology companies could validate current valuations. A stabilisation in French bond yields would further improve sentiment and could allow European equities and the euro to recover. Bearish Scenario The principal risk is a renewed rise in sovereign bond yields. A move in the US 10-year yield towards or above 5.5% would increase pressure on equity valuations and could trigger a broader risk-off move. In Europe, continued deterioration in French bonds could generate concerns about wider Eurozone contagion. Technology stocks face an additional risk if earnings fail to meet elevated expectations. A combination of higher yields, expensive technology valuations and weaker economic data would create a particularly challenging environment for equities. Currency Outlook The US dollar remains closely linked to the direction of interest-rate expectations. If the weaker US labour market continues to reduce expectations for Fed tightening, the dollar could remain under pressure. The euro faces a more complicated outlook. Lower European rate expectations could weigh on the currency, while rising French bond yields could increase the risk premium demanded by investors. EUR/USD therefore remains vulnerable to another decline if French fiscal concerns intensify. A move towards $1.10 would become increasingly plausible if the European bond-market situation deteriorates further. Chart 1: EURUSD Louis Roche Analysis The major theme for markets now is the conflict between falling short-term rate expectations and still-elevated long-term borrowing costs. The weaker US employment data are clearly supportive for equities because they reduce the immediate probability of another Fed rate hike. But investors cannot assume that lower policy-rate expectations automatically mean lower long-term Treasury yields. The bond market remains the critical variable. If the US 10-year yield begins to fall meaningfully, the current technology-led equity rally could broaden and potentially develop into a stronger fourth-quarter advance. If yields remain above 5% or begin moving towards 5.5%, the valuation pressure on technology and other long-duration assets will increase. Europe presents the second major risk. French fiscal concerns are no longer simply a domestic issue. If the widening spread against Germany continues, investors could begin questioning the broader stability of Eurozone sovereign markets. For FX markets, this makes EUR/USD particularly important. A stabilisation in French bonds could allow the euro to recover, while another deterioration could accelerate the move towards $1.10. My focus this week would therefore be on US Treasury yields, French-German spreads, EUR/USD and the breadth of the US equity rally. These four indicators should provide a clearer signal about whether markets are entering a sustainable year-end risk-on phase or approaching another period of volatility. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: Federal Reserve meeting minutes European Central Bank meeting minutes US inflation and labour-market developments US Treasury yields French-German bond spreads EUR/USD Brent crude US equity-market breadth Technology and semiconductor earnings expectations AI-related capital expenditure European fiscal developments The Federal Reserve minutes will be particularly important if they reveal a broader shift towards patience among policymakers. The ECB minutes will receive attention for their assessment of inflation, but investors will also be watching for any indication of how policymakers might respond if European sovereign stress intensifies. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the week ahead as a macro-driven environment where interest rates, sovereign bond spreads, oil and equity-market risk appetite are likely to remain closely interconnected. For international businesses, the most important currency risk remains the interaction between the US dollar and the euro. Further deterioration in European bond markets could increase EUR/USD downside volatility, while a decline in US Treasury yields could weaken the dollar and provide support for major currencies. Businesses with international revenues, supplier payments or cross-border exposures should therefore remain alert to rapid changes in currency levels as markets reassess central-bank expectations. Currency Hedger monitors FX markets alongside global commodities and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

Wheat Rebounds as Black Sea Risks Threaten Global Grain Supplies

Wheat prices are recovering towards $6.90 per bushel as renewed escalation risks between Russia and Ukraine raise concerns over the security of Black Sea grain supplies. The market is responding to the possibility that further attacks on critical infrastructure could disrupt exports through one of the world's most important grain-trading regions. The latest developments increase the risk premium surrounding wheat just as the market is attempting to recover from a more than one-year low. While global supplies remain available, continued disruption to Black Sea logistics could tighten regional availability and increase competition for alternative origins. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactWheat PriceAround $6.90/bushelRecoveringBlack Sea SupplyElevated disruption riskBullishRussia-Ukraine ConflictEscalation concerns increasingBullish risk premiumRussian InfrastructureFurther strikes threatenedSupply riskUkrainian InfrastructureRemains exposedSupply riskBlack Sea ShipmentsAlready constrainedBullishTurkeyWorking to maintain trade routeCriticalGlobal SupplyStill availableLimits upsideTechnical StructureRecovering from yearly lowImproving Wheat Price Action Wheat is extending its recovery after reaching a more than one-year low at the end of September. The move towards $6.90 reflects a growing geopolitical risk premium rather than a fundamental shortage across the global wheat market. The $6.90 area is now an important near-term reference point. Sustained trading above this level would strengthen the recovery structure and could encourage additional buying if Black Sea disruptions intensify. Failure to maintain the recovery, however, would indicate that the market remains focused on the broader global supply picture rather than geopolitical risk. Black Sea Supply Risks The Black Sea remains central to the wheat outlook. Russia and Ukraine are both major participants in global grain trade, and continued attacks on infrastructure create the possibility of further disruptions to storage, transportation and export logistics. The latest Russian government warning of intensified strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, combined with Ukraine's commitment to targeting Russian energy facilities, increases the risk that the conflict could affect a wider range of economic infrastructure. For wheat markets, the critical issue is whether these developments begin to interfere materially with export flows. Russia and Ukraine Remain Key Exporters The importance of the region means that even temporary logistical disruption can influence international wheat prices. If ports, transport infrastructure, storage facilities or energy networks are affected, exporters may face higher costs, slower loading schedules or difficulties moving grain from production areas to international markets. The market does not necessarily need a complete halt in exports to become bullish. A sustained reduction in shipping reliability could be enough to encourage importers to secure supplies earlier and push prices higher. Turkey's Role Becomes Increasingly Important Turkey's efforts to maintain the Black Sea trade route will remain closely watched. Any deterioration in the ability to maintain reliable commercial shipping could increase the risk premium in wheat. Conversely, successful continuation of grain shipments would reduce some of the geopolitical premium currently entering prices and could limit the recovery. The market is therefore likely to respond strongly to any evidence that the established trade corridor is becoming either more secure or more difficult to operate. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook is becoming more uncertain rather than fundamentally tight. Global wheat remains available, meaning that the market has some protection against a short-term supply shock. However, Black Sea disruptions could reduce the amount of grain available to international buyers from the region and force greater reliance on alternative exporters. This could increase competition between importers and place additional pressure on global freight and logistics costs. The longer the disruption persists, the more significant the impact could become. Demand Outlook Wheat demand remains relatively stable, but geopolitical uncertainty can change purchasing behaviour. Importers may increase coverage if they believe Black Sea shipments could become unreliable. That type of precautionary buying can support prices even before an actual physical shortage develops. The market will therefore monitor not only consumption but also the pace at which major importers secure forward supplies. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario would develop if military escalation results in meaningful disruption to Black Sea exports. A combination of damaged infrastructure, shipping interruptions, higher insurance costs and logistical delays could reduce available export supply and force importers towards alternative origins. In that environment, wheat could maintain its recovery above $6.90 and move towards higher resistance as traders price a larger geopolitical risk premium. Additional support would come if adverse weather or production problems emerge in other major exporting regions. Bearish Scenario The main bearish scenario is that Black Sea exports continue operating despite the elevated geopolitical risks. If grain continues to move reliably through the region, the current risk premium could gradually fade. A stronger US dollar, improving global wheat availability or weaker import demand could then place renewed pressure on prices. The market would also remain vulnerable to selling if the recovery from the September low fails to attract sustained speculative buying. Wheat Price Outlook Wheat's near-term outlook has shifted from strongly defensive to cautiously constructive as geopolitical risk increases. The recovery towards $6.90 places the market at an important technical and psychological level. A sustained move above this area would improve the short-term structure and potentially attract further momentum buying. However, the longer-term direction will depend on whether geopolitical developments translate into actual export disruptions. For now, the market is likely to maintain a higher risk premium while the security of Black Sea trade remains uncertain. Louis Roche Analysis Wheat is entering a period where geopolitical risk is becoming increasingly important to price discovery. The recovery from the September low is significant because the market had previously been focused heavily on abundant global supply. The latest escalation concerns are forcing traders to reconsider how much of that supply can reliably reach international buyers. The key distinction is between risk of disruption and actual disruption. If Black Sea shipments continue to operate, the market could eventually give back some of the geopolitical premium. But if infrastructure attacks begin to materially interfere with ports, transport networks or export logistics, wheat could move considerably higher. I would therefore watch the reliability of Black Sea shipments rather than headline military developments alone. A sustained move above $6.90 would strengthen the recovery case, while a failure to hold the current rebound would suggest that global supply fundamentals remain dominant. Coming Sessions Wheat traders will monitor: Russia-Ukraine military developments Black Sea shipping activity Russian and Ukrainian export flows Damage to grain and transport infrastructure Turkey's efforts to maintain the trade corridor Global wheat export availability Importer purchasing activity US wheat export demand US dollar direction Weather developments across major producing regions Any evidence of actual disruption to Black Sea exports could quickly increase the market's risk premium. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger views the wheat market as increasingly sensitive to the interaction between geopolitical risk, commodity prices, freight costs and currency movements. For international grain traders, importers and exporters, movements in both wheat prices and the currencies involved in cross-border transactions can materially affect margins and landed costs. Currency Hedger monitors FX markets alongside commodities and global macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Banks

October 5, 2026

Equities: Strong earnings cycle offsets yield shock – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports that global equities ended last week only 0.5% lower despite a rapid rise in yields, with tech and cyclicals outperforming. Over the past two weeks, equities are up 0.4%, while volatility has been largely confined to bonds. The team argues strong earnings growth explains equities’ resilience versus the rates shock. Tech leads as bond volatility spikes "Equities were markedly higher on Friday, mainly sparked by a softer-than-expected September job report (S&P 500 gained 0.7%, Nasdaq 1.2% and Stoxx 600 0.8%). Most sectors were in green, with cyclicals and yield-sensitive sectors such as consumer discretionary, tech and industrials, in the lead." "As such, global equities closed only marginally down last week, down -0.5% as a whole, despite the rapid increase in yields. Over the last two weeks, which is when most of the increase in the US 10y has taken place, equities are even up 0.4%. This is a way stronger performance than what normally would be the case given the speed of the yield increase. The same goes for market volatility. Although the bond vol (MOVE) has spiked, equity volatility has remained very low, at least on an index level." "Adding to this, the usually yield-sensitive tech sector has been the strongest-performing sector by far. Over the past week, the tech sector added another 1.5% while usual safe havens like health care, or for that matter banks, sold off -3%." "Over the past month, the global semiconductor industry has rallied a full 10%. This is far from the textbook example of how equities and underlying sector performance would normally behave when a rates shock hits." "We discuss this divergence between the equity and bond responses further in yesterday's Editorial. However, in short, it makes full sense to us to see that volatility has been isolated in the bond space, as the relevant shock in equities is still earnings growth. We are in one of the strongest earnings cycles in modern history and this means that we need to treat equities different to other asset classes, as well as its own history."

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Banks

October 5, 2026

British Pound: Rebound capped as downside bias lingers against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes GBP/USD recovered to 1.3238 after failing to extend Thursday’s decline, but intraday gains are expected to stay within 1.3215–1.3265. Over the next 1–3 weeks, he maintains a mildly negative stance, looking for a move toward 1.3140 while 1.3265 acts as strong resistance. Pound-Dollar rebound seen limited below resistance "24-HOUR VIEW: Following last Thursday’s price action, we stated on Friday that “downward momentum is increasing, albeit not by much.” We expected GBP to “edge lower,” but we pointed out that “any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.3140.” Our view was incorrect, as after dipping to a low of 1.3184, GBP rebounded to a high of 1.3256. While there is scope for the rebound to extend, given that there has been no clear increase in upward momentum, any advance is likely to remain within a 1.3215/1.3265 range. In other words, GBP is unlikely to break clearly above 1.3265." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned slightly negative on GBP last Friday (02 Oct, spot at 1.3195). We indicated that “while downward momentum is building again, it is not strong for now.” We held the view that GBP “is likely to edge lower toward the major support at 1.3140.” While the buildup has eased somewhat with the subsequent rebound in GBP, we will continue to hold the same view as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.3265 (no change in level) is not breached."

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Banks

October 5, 2026

Euro: Political risks weigh on common currency – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that growing concerns over France’s public debt sustainability are now weighing on the Euro (EUR), after previously leaving the currency largely untouched despite bond market turmoil. She highlights the risk that the European Central Bank (ECB) could be forced into a more accommodative stance and notes that German Bunds’ safe-haven status currently limits the Euro’s depreciation potential. Debt worries and ECB risk channels "Concerns about the sustainability of France’s public debt are becoming more widespread. They have now started to weigh on the euro as well, which had remained more or less unaffected by the turmoil in bond markets in recent months. What has changed?" "From an FX perspective, the problematic aspect is that the ECB plays a central role in this mechanism. In a worst-case scenario the ECB could face a dilemma between its mandate to preserve price stability and its responsibility to safeguard financial stability." "The fact that the common currency is now coming under pressure suggests, on the one hand, that markets see a rising probability that the ECB may have to intervene after all. On the other hand, it indicates growing doubts that the tools specifically designed for such a scenario would be sufficient to contain the problem. Instead, markets appear increasingly concerned that the ECB could ultimately be forced into a more persistently accommodative monetary policy stance in order to ease pressure on long-term bond yields." "As long as investors have access to a euro-denominated safe asset, the current problems of the French government remain a problem for OATs rather than for the euro itself." "Early signs of contagion spilling over to Germany would therefore constitute a clear warning signal for the euro."

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Markets

October 5, 2026

Copper Gains as Lower Fed Rate Pressure Supports Metals While China Demand Weighs

Copper prices are finding renewed support above $6.50 per pound as expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening ease following softer US employment data. Lower expectations for interest-rate increases are helping reduce pressure on non-yielding commodities, while longer-term demand prospects linked to data centres, electrification and renewable-energy infrastructure remain supportive. However, copper's near-term outlook remains mixed. Signs of slowing industrial activity in China are limiting demand expectations, while developments in Chile and uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs on refined copper are adding another layer of supply and trade risk. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactCopper PriceAbove $6.50/lbRecoveringFederal ReserveRate-hike expectations easingBullishUS JobsSofter employment dataSupportive for metalsChina DemandIndustrial activity showing weaknessBearish riskChilean ProductionAugust output at multi-year lowBullishCentinela MineStrike risk emergingBullish supply riskUS Copper TariffsDecision remains delayedUncertaintyLong-Term DemandData centres, renewables and electrificationStructurally bullish Copper Price Action Copper is recovering after recent losses as the shift in US rate expectations improves the broader environment for industrial metals. The key near-term level remains the $6.50-per-pound area. Sustained trading above this level would indicate that buyers are continuing to absorb recent selling pressure and could open the way for a move towards higher resistance levels. A failure to hold this area, however, would leave copper vulnerable to renewed pressure, particularly if Chinese industrial indicators deteriorate further. Federal Reserve Expectations The latest US employment data are reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to continue raising interest rates. This is important for copper because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets while also potentially slowing economic activity and industrial demand. A less restrictive US monetary-policy outlook therefore provides a more favourable backdrop for copper. If incoming US data continue to show a gradual cooling in employment and inflation, markets could increasingly price a less aggressive Federal Reserve. That would potentially provide further support to industrial metals. China Demand Remains the Main Near-Term Risk China remains critical to the copper outlook because of its dominant role in global industrial and manufacturing demand. While longer-term consumption expectations remain strong, particularly around electrification and infrastructure, signs of slowing industrial activity are creating uncertainty around near-term physical demand. The next phase of copper's rally will therefore require more than a weaker US dollar or softer Federal Reserve expectations. Evidence of improving Chinese industrial activity would provide a stronger fundamental foundation for sustained higher prices. Supply Risks Are Increasing Supply conditions are becoming increasingly supportive for copper. Chilean production fell sharply in August to its lowest level since early 2011. Chile remains one of the world's most important copper-producing countries, making changes in output particularly significant for global supply expectations. At the same time, workers at Antofagasta's Centinela mine have voted to strike following failed wage negotiations. Any prolonged disruption could tighten the concentrate market and increase competition for available supply. These developments provide an important counterweight to concerns over weaker Chinese demand. US Copper Tariff Uncertainty US trade policy remains another important variable. The Trump administration has so far delayed a decision regarding tariffs on refined copper. Earlier tariff threats encouraged traders to redirect copper shipments towards US warehouses, contributing to the earlier price rally. A final tariff decision could therefore have significant implications for global trade flows. If tariffs are introduced, copper could initially receive support from expectations of tighter US availability. However, the longer-term effect could be more complicated as trade flows adjust and demand responds to higher prices. Bullish Scenario Copper's bullish case strengthens if several factors move in the same direction. A softer Federal Reserve stance, continued US dollar weakness, improving Chinese industrial demand and further supply disruptions in major producing countries would create a favourable environment for higher prices. Additional support could come from growing structural demand for copper from: Data centres Artificial intelligence infrastructure Electric vehicles Power-grid investment Renewable-energy projects Battery and charging infrastructure Global electrification Under this scenario, sustained trading above $6.50 could establish a new platform for further gains. Bearish Scenario The main downside risk remains weaker global industrial demand. If Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorates further, copper consumption expectations could weaken despite the longer-term electrification story. A stronger US dollar or renewed expectations for Federal Reserve tightening would also increase pressure on copper. The market could additionally reverse some of the premium associated with US tariff expectations if policymakers ultimately adopt a less restrictive approach than traders currently anticipate. Copper Price Outlook The immediate copper outlook remains constructive but highly dependent on macroeconomic and Chinese demand signals. Holding above $6.50 would keep the recovery structure intact and allow the market to test higher levels if the US rate outlook continues to become more supportive. A sustained break below this area would weaken the near-term technical picture and expose the market to deeper consolidation. The next major directional move is likely to depend on the combination of US monetary-policy expectations, Chinese industrial activity and global supply developments. Supply Outlook Global supply risks are becoming more significant. Lower Chilean production and potential labour disruption at major mines could tighten availability, particularly if production problems persist. The market will therefore remain sensitive to: Chilean mine output Labour negotiations Mine disruptions Treatment and refining conditions Chinese smelter activity Global concentrate availability New mine and expansion projects Any additional disruption could increase the upside sensitivity of copper prices. Demand Outlook Long-term copper demand remains structurally strong because of the metal's importance to electrification and digital infrastructure. The rapid expansion of data centres and AI-related infrastructure is increasing demand for electricity generation, transmission and distribution equipment, while renewable-energy investment and electric-vehicle adoption provide additional sources of consumption. The immediate issue is whether these structural trends can offset softer cyclical demand from China and other manufacturing economies. Louis Roche Analysis Copper is currently being pulled in two different directions. The macro environment is becoming more supportive, with softer US employment data reducing expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, supply developments in Chile and potential labour disruption are creating genuine concerns over future availability. Against this, China's industrial slowdown remains the most important obstacle to a sustained rally. My view is that the copper market is moving into a period where supply-side constraints and long-term structural demand could increasingly compete with weaker near-term industrial demand. For now, the $6.50 area is an important reference point. If copper can maintain this level while Chinese demand stabilises and US monetary expectations remain supportive, the probability of another upward move increases. The bigger bullish argument is not simply the Fed or tariffs. It is the combination of electrification, AI infrastructure, power-grid investment and constrained mine supply. Coming Sessions Copper traders will focus on: US employment and inflation data Federal Reserve rate expectations US dollar direction Chinese manufacturing indicators Chinese copper demand Chilean production Mine labour negotiations US refined-copper tariff policy Global inventory levels Physical copper premiums A combination of softer US monetary expectations and improving Chinese demand would provide the strongest upside environment. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees copper as increasingly sensitive to the interaction between US monetary policy, the US dollar, Chinese industrial demand and global supply disruptions. For businesses with copper-related revenues, procurement costs or international trade exposure, changes in the dollar and commodity price can materially affect margins and cash-flow planning. Currency Hedger monitors FX markets alongside commodities and global macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Louis Roche – Today Markets Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Banks

October 5, 2026

Oil: Diverging supply signals shape Brent – ING

ING’s Warren Patterson notes that ICE Brent has repeatedly dipped below $100/bbl but continues to settle above this level as the market weighs conflicting supply and geopolitical factors. Higher oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, G7 reserve releases, and recovering Saudi pipeline capacity contrast with persistent Middle East tensions and unchanged OPEC+ production plans. Brent holds above key threshold "Reports are that flows are back to more than 80% of capacity, which will allow crude exports from Yanbu to also recover." "The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 13,812 lots over the last reporting week to 204,302 lots, which is the smallest position held since early August. Signs of increased oil flows from the Persian Gulf would likely leave speculators reluctant to carry too much risk at the moment." "Unsurprisingly, OPEC+ over the weekend left production levels unchanged for November. Throughout the US-Iran conflict, the group announced cumulative supply increases of 1.65m b/d. However, these were largely paper increases, as ongoing supply disruptions prevented a corresponding rise in actual production." "Despite ICE Brent breaking below $100/bbl several times last week, the move was relatively short-lived. The market continues to settle above this key level as it digests a number of diverging developments. On the bearish side, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz appear to be trending higher." "Further reinforcing expectations of looser crude oil market conditions, Saudi Arabia reduced the official selling price for November-loading Arab Light crude into Asia by $3/bbl, widening its discount to the benchmark to $5/bbl. The Saudis have been shipping larger volumes through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, given the outage of the East-West pipeline. More recently, oil flows through the pipeline have been recovering."

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Commentary

October 5, 2026

Breaking – EUR/USD Slides Below 1.1200 as French Debt Concerns Drive Euro Selling

The euro is under renewed pressure against the US dollar, with EUR/USD breaking below 1.1200 and falling to its lowest level since May 2025. The sharp decline reflects a combination of growing concerns over France's fiscal position, political uncertainty across the euro area and renewed demand for the US dollar. The euro is being weighed down by concerns over parliamentary deadlock in France and the country's deteriorating debt situation. At the same time, the dollar is strengthening toward fresh yearly highs as geopolitical uncertainty encourages demand for safe-haven assets. The move is notable because expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in October have been declining. Despite that, the dollar remains firm, demonstrating that broader risk and fiscal considerations are currently outweighing the impact of changing Fed expectations. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market ViewEUR/USDBelow 1.1200Euro TrendStrong downside pressureRecent LowLowest since May 2025US DollarFresh yearly highsFranceRising fiscal and political concernsFrench ParliamentPolitical deadlockFed October Hike BetsRecedingSafe-Haven DemandSupporting USDKey RiskFurther European fiscal deterioration Euro Falls Through 1.1200 The break below 1.1200 represents an important deterioration in the short-term technical picture. The euro had previously benefited from expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve, but that support has now been overwhelmed by renewed demand for the US dollar. A sustained move below 1.1200 would leave EUR/USD exposed to further downside as traders reassess the euro-area risk premium and the relative attractiveness of dollar assets. The speed of the decline also highlights how quickly positioning can change when political and fiscal risks emerge simultaneously. France's Debt Crisis Becomes a Major Euro Risk France has become one of the central concerns for the euro. Persistent fiscal pressures and political disagreements are making it increasingly difficult for policymakers to deliver a credible path toward stabilising government finances. Parliamentary deadlock adds another layer of uncertainty because the government's ability to implement fiscal measures depends on securing sufficient political support. For currency markets, the concern extends beyond France itself. If investors begin demanding a larger risk premium for euro-area assets because of uncertainty surrounding France's debt trajectory, the effect can spread across the wider single currency. Political Uncertainty Weighs on the Euro The euro is particularly vulnerable when fiscal problems become intertwined with political instability. A prolonged parliamentary impasse could delay budget decisions, complicate fiscal consolidation and increase uncertainty over the direction of economic policy. This can encourage investors to reduce exposure to euro-denominated assets, particularly when alternative assets such as US Treasuries and the dollar remain attractive. The longer the political uncertainty persists, the greater the risk that the issue becomes embedded into euro-area risk premiums. US Dollar Strength Overrides Lower Fed Hike Expectations The dollar is trading at fresh yearly highs despite declining expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in October. This is an important shift in the market narrative. Normally, falling rate-hike expectations would be expected to reduce support for the dollar. However, safe-haven demand and broader geopolitical uncertainty are currently proving more powerful. The US currency is therefore benefiting from its traditional role as a global reserve and defensive asset. If geopolitical risks remain elevated, the dollar could continue attracting capital even if the Federal Reserve becomes less hawkish. Geopolitical Risk Supports Safe-Haven Demand Geopolitical uncertainty remains an important driver of currency markets. When investors become concerned about global economic or political stability, liquidity and safety often become more important than yield differentials. The US dollar remains one of the primary beneficiaries of this environment. For EUR/USD, this creates a difficult combination: the euro is facing domestic fiscal and political concerns while the dollar is simultaneously receiving support from external geopolitical risks. Bullish Scenario for EUR/USD The euro could stabilise and recover if: French political tensions ease. Markets become more confident in France's fiscal outlook. Euro-area political risk premiums decline. US economic data weakens materially. Treasury yields fall. The Federal Reserve becomes more dovish. Geopolitical tensions ease. The dollar loses safe-haven demand. A sustained recovery back above 1.1200 would be the first indication that downside momentum is beginning to weaken. Bearish Scenario for EUR/USD The bearish case would strengthen if: France's fiscal crisis deteriorates further. Parliamentary deadlock persists. Investors demand a larger premium for French and euro-area assets. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. US Treasury yields stay high. The dollar continues making new yearly highs. Euro-area economic data deteriorates. EUR/USD remains below 1.1200. A sustained break below the recent low could expose the pair to another phase of accelerated selling. EUR/USD Outlook The immediate outlook has shifted decisively in favour of the dollar. The break below 1.1200 has weakened the euro's technical structure, while the fundamental backdrop has become increasingly challenging. The key question is whether the current move develops into a broader euro trend or remains a sharp but temporary risk-off adjustment. For the euro to regain traction, markets will likely need evidence that French fiscal concerns are stabilising and that US dollar demand is beginning to fade. Until then, rallies in EUR/USD could encounter selling pressure. Euro-Area Outlook The euro-area outlook is increasingly dependent on political and fiscal developments as well as monetary policy. France's debt position is particularly important because of the size of its economy and its significance within the euro area. A prolonged fiscal confrontation could affect investor confidence and create wider concerns about the sustainability of government finances across the region. At the same time, weaker economic activity could encourage a more accommodative European Central Bank stance, potentially adding another source of pressure to the currency. US Dollar Outlook The dollar's current strength is being driven by more than interest rates. Its safe-haven characteristics, liquidity and global reserve-currency status are becoming increasingly important as geopolitical uncertainty rises. Even if markets reduce expectations for Fed tightening, the dollar can remain strong if investors continue prioritising capital preservation and liquidity. A meaningful reversal would therefore likely require both lower US yields and a reduction in global risk aversion. Rate Differential Outlook The interest-rate differential between the US and euro area remains an important factor, but it is no longer the only driver of EUR/USD. The decline in October Fed hike expectations should normally reduce the dollar's yield advantage. However, safe-haven demand and political risk in Europe are currently offsetting that effect. The pair could therefore remain under pressure even without a major shift in Federal Reserve policy. Louis Roche Analysis EUR/USD has entered a more vulnerable phase because the euro is facing domestic fiscal risk at the same time that the dollar is benefiting from global uncertainty. The break below 1.1200 is technically important, but the fundamental story is even more significant. France's debt situation and parliamentary deadlock have the potential to create a persistent risk premium around euro-area assets. Markets do not necessarily need a full-blown financial crisis for this to affect the currency; prolonged uncertainty alone can encourage investors to reduce euro exposure. What makes the current move particularly interesting is the strength of the dollar despite declining expectations for an October Fed hike. This tells us that the market is currently placing greater emphasis on safe-haven demand and relative political stability than on the immediate interest-rate differential. My view is that EUR/USD remains vulnerable while it trades below 1.1200. A stabilisation in French politics or a meaningful decline in US yields could trigger a sharp rebound, but without those catalysts, rallies are likely to remain vulnerable to renewed selling. The next major test will be whether the euro can establish support below 1.1200 or whether the market begins pricing a deeper deterioration in euro-area risk. Coming Sessions Currency markets will focus on: Developments in France's fiscal and political situation French parliamentary negotiations Euro-area economic data European Central Bank expectations US Treasury yields Federal Reserve policy expectations US economic data Geopolitical developments Broader US dollar safe-haven demand The interaction between European fiscal risk and US dollar demand should remain the dominant force behind EUR/USD. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 5, 2026

Brent Oil Retreats as Rising Supply Offsets Middle East Risk

Brent crude is trading near $101 per barrel, giving back part of its recent gains as evidence of improving global supply begins to outweigh persistent geopolitical risks across the Middle East. The market remains caught between two opposing forces. On one side, the G7 has agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, while major OPEC+ producers are keeping production quotas unchanged. On the other, ongoing instability around the Strait of Hormuz, the US-Iran confrontation and renewed military activity in Yemen continue to create the potential for sudden supply disruptions. The ability of Middle Eastern producers to maintain and even increase exports despite these risks is currently providing the strongest bearish counterweight to the geopolitical premium in crude. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market ViewBrent CrudeAround $101/barrelShort-Term TrendPullback after recent gainsG7 Emergency ReservesUp to 100 million barrelsOPEC+Production quotas unchanged next monthPersian Gulf ExportsAbove pre-war levels on several recent daysStrait of HormuzRemains a major supply riskUS-Iran RelationsOngoing tensionYemenSaudi-backed military operation underwayMarket BiasSupply improvement versus geopolitical risk Brent Pulls Back as Supply Concerns Increase Brent's retreat reflects a changing balance between physical supply concerns and geopolitical risk. The market had previously priced a substantial risk premium into crude because of disruptions affecting Middle Eastern energy flows. However, evidence that Persian Gulf exports are recovering has reduced some of the immediate concern over a prolonged supply shortage. Crude exports from the Persian Gulf exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days during the final week of September, despite continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. This suggests that producers and exporters are finding alternative routes and operational solutions to maintain international flows. For the oil market, the ability to keep barrels moving is becoming just as important as the geopolitical headlines themselves. G7 Emergency Reserves Add a Supply Buffer The decision by G7 countries to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel provides an additional layer of protection against physical shortages. The release also signals that major consuming economies are prepared to intervene if supply disruptions become severe enough to threaten global energy markets. The decision not to impose restrictions on energy exports further supports the objective of keeping international petroleum flows functioning. While strategic stock releases cannot permanently replace lost production, they can significantly reduce the immediate impact of temporary disruptions and limit the risk of an uncontrolled price spike. OPEC+ Maintains Its Production Position Major OPEC+ producers have agreed to keep production quotas unchanged next month. The decision reflects the difficulty of balancing two competing objectives: supporting market stability while avoiding an excessive supply response during a period of significant geopolitical uncertainty. An unchanged production policy removes the prospect of an immediate additional increase in OPEC+ supply, but it also means the group is not taking further barrels off the market to compensate for Middle Eastern disruptions. This leaves actual production and export volumes more important than official quotas when assessing the near-term balance. Persian Gulf Exports Challenge the Supply Disruption Narrative One of the most important developments for crude markets is the evidence that Persian Gulf exports are proving more resilient than initially feared. Even with disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and continued tensions involving the United States and Iran, exports exceeded pre-war levels on several days during the final week of September. If this resilience continues, the market could gradually remove part of the geopolitical premium currently embedded in Brent prices. However, the situation remains highly fluid. A significant escalation involving shipping, energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz could rapidly reverse this improvement. Yemen Adds Another Geopolitical Risk The situation in Yemen is becoming increasingly important for oil markets. Saudi-backed forces have launched a major military operation aimed at retaking areas controlled by the Houthis following weeks of rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed group. The geographic importance of Yemen extends beyond the country's domestic conflict. The Houthis have previously threatened shipping and energy flows around the Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world's strategically important maritime corridors linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Any deterioration in security around this route could increase shipping costs, disrupt trade flows and restore a significant geopolitical premium to crude. Bullish Scenario Brent could regain upward momentum if: US-Iran tensions escalate further. The Strait of Hormuz experiences a material disruption. Persian Gulf exports fall sharply. Military activity in Yemen threatens regional shipping. Additional oil infrastructure comes under attack. Strategic reserve releases prove insufficient to offset lost supply. Physical inventories begin tightening. Under this scenario, Brent could quickly move beyond recent highs as traders price a larger and potentially prolonged supply disruption. Bearish Scenario The bearish case would strengthen if: Persian Gulf exports remain above pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz continues functioning despite elevated tensions. G7 strategic reserve releases add meaningful supply. OPEC+ production remains stable. Global demand growth slows. Geopolitical risk premiums continue to fade. A sustained improvement in physical supply would make it increasingly difficult for Brent to maintain a large geopolitical premium. Brent Price Outlook The short-term direction of Brent is likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in Middle Eastern supply flows. Around $101 per barrel, the market is still pricing a substantial geopolitical risk premium, but the recent evidence of resilient exports suggests that the physical market is not currently as constrained as feared. The key level for the broader outlook will be whether Brent can regain upward momentum despite improving supply conditions. A sustained move lower would indicate that traders are placing greater emphasis on actual export flows and strategic reserves. Conversely, any significant disruption to Gulf exports could quickly reverse the recent decline. Supply Outlook The supply outlook has improved at the margin. Strategic reserve releases, resilient Persian Gulf exports and unchanged OPEC+ quotas are reducing the immediate risk of a severe global shortage. However, this improvement remains conditional on continued access to major export routes. The Strait of Hormuz remains the largest potential supply-risk variable. Any prolonged closure or significant reduction in tanker traffic would fundamentally change the current balance. Demand Outlook Oil demand is likely to remain closely tied to global economic growth and energy prices. If Brent remains around current levels, consumers and businesses can absorb the cost more easily than during a sharp price spike. However, a renewed surge toward significantly higher prices could increase inflationary pressure and weaken demand. Higher energy costs could also complicate monetary-policy decisions for major central banks if inflation expectations begin to rise again. Louis Roche Analysis The Brent market is currently moving through a tug-of-war between improving physical supply and persistent geopolitical risk. The most important development is not simply that crude remains above $100, but that Middle Eastern exports are proving more resilient than the market initially expected. If those flows remain stable, the supply narrative becomes increasingly difficult to justify at an extreme level. The G7 reserve release adds another layer of protection, while the decision by major OPEC+ producers to leave quotas unchanged limits the likelihood of a sudden policy-driven tightening. However, I would not underestimate the geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz, the US-Iran confrontation and the escalation in Yemen all have the potential to disrupt energy flows rapidly. Oil markets can move from a perceived surplus to a physical shortage very quickly when a major export corridor is threatened. For now, the evidence favours some moderation in the geopolitical premium, but the downside remains vulnerable to any meaningful deterioration in Middle Eastern security. The next major move in Brent is therefore likely to be determined less by headlines alone and more by whether those headlines begin to affect actual barrels reaching the international market. Coming Sessions The market will focus on: Persian Gulf crude export volumes Developments involving the Strait of Hormuz US-Iran negotiations and military tensions Saudi and OPEC+ production data Developments in Yemen and the Red Sea G7 strategic reserve releases Global crude inventories Refinery demand and product-market conditions Broader global economic and inflation data The interaction between physical supply and geopolitical risk should remain the dominant driver of Brent prices. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

Platinum Rises as Softer US Jobs Data Support Precious Metals

Platinum futures are trading back above $1,700 an ounce, recovering from recent multi-week lows as softer US employment data reduces expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike this month. The weaker labour-market picture has eased some pressure from higher interest rates and lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals. However, the recovery remains measured. The US dollar remains firm, Treasury yields are elevated and higher oil prices continue to create inflation concerns, limiting the scope for a stronger platinum rebound. At the same time, platinum's physical fundamentals remain mixed, with stronger industrial demand competing against weaker automotive consumption and a projected market surplus. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market ViewPlatinum PriceAbove $1,700/ozRecent TrendRecovery from multi-week lowsUS Jobs DataSofter than expectedFed ExpectationsReduced probability of another near-term hikeUS DollarRemains firmTreasury YieldsElevatedIndustrial DemandForecast to increaseAutomotive DemandForecast to decline2026 Market BalanceProjected 265,000-ounce surplus Platinum Rebounds as Fed Expectations Shift The immediate catalyst for platinum's recovery is the changing US interest-rate outlook. September employment growth was weaker than expected, while downward revisions to previous months reinforced evidence that labour-market conditions are becoming less robust. This reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain or increase monetary-policy pressure in the near term. For platinum, this is important because the metal does not generate interest income. When real and nominal yields rise, investors face a greater opportunity cost from holding precious metals. A softer rate outlook can therefore improve the relative attractiveness of platinum. The recovery is nevertheless being restrained by the broader strength of the US dollar and elevated Treasury yields. US Dollar and Treasury Yields Remain Key Risks The dollar remains an important headwind for platinum. A stronger US currency generally makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for international buyers, potentially limiting investment and physical demand. Elevated Treasury yields can also continue to compete with non-yielding precious metals for investor capital. The next phase of platinum's recovery will therefore depend partly on whether weaker US economic data translates into a sustained decline in bond yields and a softer dollar. If that occurs, the monetary-policy environment could become increasingly supportive for platinum and other precious metals. Industrial Demand Provides Structural Support Platinum's longer-term demand outlook remains supported by industrial applications. The World Platinum Investment Council expects industrial platinum demand to increase by around 5% in 2026, with growth partly linked to the expansion of artificial-intelligence infrastructure. The rapid development of AI infrastructure requires significant investment in data centres, electricity generation and associated industrial equipment. This creates additional demand across a range of industrial materials and provides a potential long-term support factor for platinum. This structural theme is particularly important because it could offset some of the weakness expected from traditional automotive demand. Automotive Demand Remains a Fundamental Headwind Automotive demand remains one of the main challenges facing the platinum market. The sector is expected to experience a decline of around 4% in 2026, reflecting structural changes in vehicle technology and the continuing transition toward electrification. Platinum remains important for emissions-control systems in conventional and hybrid vehicles, but the long-term shift toward battery-electric vehicles reduces the addressable market for traditional autocatalyst demand. This means that stronger industrial applications will need to increasingly compensate for weaker automotive consumption. Platinum Market Faces a Projected Surplus Despite the improving macroeconomic backdrop, the physical platinum market is not currently showing the same degree of tightness that would normally provide a strong fundamental price signal. The WPIC expects the market to record a projected 265,000-ounce surplus in 2026. A surplus does not necessarily prevent prices from rising, particularly when investment demand is strengthening, but it can limit the durability of rallies unless inventories begin to tighten or supply expectations deteriorate. The balance between investment demand, industrial consumption and automotive demand will therefore remain central to the medium-term outlook. Bullish Scenario Platinum could extend its recovery if several factors develop simultaneously: US employment data continues to weaken. Expectations for further Fed tightening decline. Treasury yields move lower. The US dollar loses momentum. Industrial demand accelerates. AI-related infrastructure investment generates stronger platinum consumption. Physical inventories begin to tighten. A sustained move above $1,700 could then attract additional momentum-driven buying and shift the short-term trend toward higher levels. Bearish Scenario The recovery could lose momentum if: US inflation remains elevated. Treasury yields stay high or move higher. The US dollar continues strengthening. The Federal Reserve retains a hawkish stance. Automotive platinum demand falls more sharply than expected. The projected market surplus persists. Investment demand fails to offset weaker physical consumption. Under this scenario, the move above $1,700 could prove to be a temporary recovery rather than the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Platinum Price Outlook The short-term outlook has improved following the rebound above $1,700, particularly because the US labour-market data has reduced immediate expectations for another rate increase. However, platinum needs to establish sustained momentum above this area before the recovery can be considered technically significant. A continued decline in Treasury yields and a softer dollar would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, renewed dollar strength or rising yields could quickly return platinum to defensive trading. The market is therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to US economic data and changes in Federal Reserve expectations. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains relatively balanced from a fundamental perspective. With the market currently expected to remain in surplus, there is limited evidence of an immediate physical supply shortage capable of driving a major price expansion on its own. However, any unexpected production disruptions, weaker mine supply or changes in recycling flows could tighten the balance and amplify the impact of improving investment demand. Demand Outlook Demand is becoming increasingly diversified. Automotive consumption remains a structural concern, but industrial demand is expected to expand, while the growth of AI infrastructure could create an additional source of long-term platinum consumption. Investment demand will remain particularly important because it can respond quickly to changes in interest rates, Treasury yields, the US dollar and broader precious-metals sentiment. Louis Roche Analysis Platinum is entering an important phase where macro conditions are becoming more supportive while physical fundamentals remain mixed. The move back above $1,700 is significant because it demonstrates that weaker US employment data can quickly improve sentiment toward non-yielding metals. If the labour market continues to soften and the Federal Reserve becomes less inclined to maintain restrictive policy, platinum could attract additional investment flows. However, I would not view the current move as a purely bullish fundamental signal. The projected 265,000-ounce surplus and expected decline in automotive demand remain important constraints. The stronger medium-term argument for platinum comes from industrial consumption, particularly the increasing investment associated with AI infrastructure. The key question for the market is therefore whether improving investment and industrial demand can increasingly compensate for weaker automotive consumption. For now, the recovery above $1,700 improves the near-term technical picture, but sustained gains will require confirmation from lower yields, a softer dollar and stronger physical demand. Coming Sessions Markets will continue to focus on incoming US economic data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Particular attention should remain on: US employment and inflation indicators Treasury-yield movements Federal Reserve commentary US dollar direction Industrial-metal sentiment Platinum investment flows Automotive demand expectations Developments in AI and data-centre infrastructure investment The interaction between monetary policy and platinum's underlying physical balance is likely to determine whether the current recovery develops into a broader trend. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

Palm Oil Stabilises as Rising Stocks and Weak Exports Cap the Recovery

Malaysian palm oil futures are stabilising after recent losses, with bargain hunters returning following the market's decline to its lowest level since mid-July. However, the recovery remains fragile as prices continue to trade below MYR 4,500 per tonne, with rising production, elevated inventories and weaker exports keeping the supply-demand balance under pressure. September shipment estimates point to a significant slowdown in export demand, while expectations that Malaysian palm oil inventories could exceed three million tonnes are limiting the potential for a sustained rally. At the same time, Chicago soybean oil has edged higher, providing some support to the vegetable-oil complex. Lower crude oil prices, however, are reducing the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock and adding another headwind to prices. Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market ContextMalaysian Palm OilStabilising after recent lossesKey Psychological LevelMYR 4,500/tonneMedium-Term RangeMYR 4,500–5,000InventoriesExpected above 3 million tonnesSeptember ExportsDown 17.1%–28.8% m/mSoybean OilSlightly firmerCrude OilWeaker following G7 stock releaseMain RisksStocks, exports, crude oil, El Niño Palm Oil Attempts to Stabilise Palm oil prices are showing signs of stabilisation after the recent decline, with lower prices attracting bargain hunters. However, the recovery remains limited while futures remain below MYR 4,500 per tonne. The market continues to face evidence of increasing physical availability, meaning buyers have little incentive to chase prices aggressively higher. The immediate question is whether bargain hunting can develop into sustained demand or whether rising inventories will continue to cap rallies. Rising Production Increases Supply Pressure Production is becoming an increasingly important bearish factor for Malaysian palm oil. Seasonal production increases have contributed to a larger supply base at a time when exports are losing momentum. If production remains strong while international buying remains subdued, Malaysian inventories could move above three million tonnes. Elevated stocks would provide a substantial buffer against short-term supply disruptions and make it more difficult for futures to sustain a significant premium. September Exports Show Clear Demand Weakness Export demand remains one of the market's most important concerns. Cargo surveyors estimate that September shipments declined between 17.1% and 28.8% month-on-month, depending on the survey. The scale of the decline suggests that higher availability is not currently being matched by sufficient international demand. For the market to establish a stronger recovery, export flows will need to improve. A continuation of weak shipments would increase the probability that inventories remain elevated through the coming months. India Remains an Important Demand Market India remains a key variable for the palm oil outlook. Palm oil imports are expected to remain relatively steady during the 2026/27 season following a reduction in import duties. Lower edible-oil tariffs ahead of the festive period could also encourage near-term buying. This provides a potential source of support for Malaysian prices. However, the strength of Indian demand will need to be sufficient to offset weaker exports elsewhere and absorb a larger Malaysian supply base before the broader market balance becomes significantly tighter. Soybean Oil Provides Some Support Chicago soybean oil prices have edged higher, providing some support to palm oil through competition within the global vegetable-oil complex. The relative pricing between palm oil, soybean oil and other edible oils remains important because large international buyers can switch between products depending on price and availability. A sustained increase in soybean oil could therefore improve palm oil's competitive position, particularly if Malaysian prices remain near the lower end of the expected trading range. China Markets Provide Limited Guidance Dalian commodity markets are closed during China's Golden Week, temporarily reducing an important source of price signals for the Asian vegetable-oil complex. Once Chinese markets reopen, palm oil traders will be watching soybean oil and palm oil pricing closely for signs of renewed demand or further pressure. China remains an important participant in global vegetable-oil markets, meaning changes in its import demand and domestic crushing economics can have a significant influence on regional prices. Crude Oil Weakness Limits Biodiesel Support Lower crude oil prices are creating another headwind for palm oil. The recent G7 decision to release strategic oil stocks has contributed to weaker crude prices, reducing the relative attractiveness of vegetable oils as biodiesel feedstocks. Palm oil prices often receive support when petroleum markets strengthen because higher fossil-fuel prices can improve the economics of biofuel blending. The opposite is also true. If crude oil remains under pressure, palm oil's energy-related demand component could weaken. El Niño Provides a Longer-Term Supply Risk The medium-term outlook is more complicated because El Niño-related weather risks could affect production next year. Dryer conditions associated with El Niño can negatively affect palm yields and production if the weather pattern becomes sufficiently persistent. This creates a potential source of support beyond the immediate inventory and export cycle. However, the market is currently being driven more strongly by existing stocks and weak exports than by next year's potential weather risks. Bullish Scenario Palm oil could regain upward momentum if: Export demand improves significantly. Indian buying accelerates ahead of the festive season. Malaysian production begins to moderate. Inventory growth slows. Soybean oil strengthens. Crude oil prices recover. El Niño increases concern over future palm production. A sustained move above MYR 4,500 would be an important first signal that the market is regaining momentum. A move toward the MYR 4,800–5,000 region would then become increasingly possible if the physical supply-demand balance tightens. Bearish Scenario The downside case remains relevant if: Malaysian production continues increasing. Inventories move above three million tonnes. Export shipments remain weak. Indian demand fails to accelerate. Crude oil prices remain subdued. Soybean oil loses its recent support. Biofuel demand weakens. A failure to reclaim MYR 4,500 would leave the market vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, particularly if inventories continue to build. Palm Oil Price Outlook The current market structure suggests a period of consolidation may develop around the lower end of the recent trading range. Analyst expectations place palm oil broadly between MYR 4,500 and MYR 5,000 per tonne through December, with elevated inventories expected to limit the upside. The immediate technical and psychological challenge is the MYR 4,500 level. A sustained recovery above it would improve sentiment, while continued trading below the level would indicate that sellers remain in control. Supply Outlook The near-term supply outlook remains comfortable. Higher Malaysian production and the possibility of inventories exceeding three million tonnes suggest that physical availability will remain an important constraint on prices. The longer-term picture is less certain. El Niño-related weather risks could reduce yields and tighten the market during the next production cycle, but those risks are currently being offset by ample near-term stocks. Demand Outlook Demand is mixed. Indian imports provide an important source of potential support, particularly with lower edible-oil tariffs potentially encouraging purchases ahead of the festive season. However, September export weakness highlights the difficulty of absorbing current production. Palm oil will also need to remain competitively priced against soybean oil and other vegetable oils to attract additional international demand. Crude oil prices represent another variable because weaker petroleum markets reduce the incentive to use palm oil for biodiesel. Louis Roche Analysis Palm oil is currently caught between two opposing forces. The short-term fundamentals remain challenging: production is increasing, inventories could exceed three million tonnes and September exports have fallen sharply. Together, these factors make it difficult for prices to establish a sustained recovery above MYR 4,500. However, the longer-term outlook is less bearish. Indian demand could provide support as the festive season approaches, while lower prices may encourage additional bargain hunting. Soybean oil is also providing some support to the broader vegetable-oil complex. The biggest potential change in the balance comes from weather. If El Niño develops into a significant production threat, the market could begin pricing tighter supply for the next production cycle. For now, however, the market is likely to remain driven by physical availability. Until exports improve or production begins to moderate, elevated inventories should continue to cap rallies. Coming Sessions Palm oil markets will focus on: Malaysian production data Inventory estimates Export shipment surveys Indian import demand Chinese vegetable-oil demand after the holiday Chicago soybean oil prices Crude oil movements Biodiesel economics El Niño weather developments Price action around MYR 4,500 The key near-term question is whether bargain hunting can develop into genuine demand. If exports recover while inventory growth slows, palm oil could move back toward the upper end of its expected range. If stocks continue to rise and exports remain weak, the market may struggle to sustain rallies. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

Corn Futures Under Pressure as Large US Inventories and Weak Exports Weigh on Prices

Corn futures have fallen below $5.00 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in six weeks as larger-than-expected US inventories and a slow export pace reinforce concerns over abundant supplies. The USDA's latest stocks data showed US corn inventories at 2.095 billion bushels as of September 1, 35% above the previous year and well above the 1.924 billion bushels expected by the market. The larger stockpile adds to pressure on prices as the 2026 harvest progresses and favourable weather allows fieldwork to accelerate across much of the Midwest. Export demand remains another major concern. Total US corn commitments for the 2026/27 marketing year stand at 18.774 million tonnes, 31% below the same point last year and 8% below the five-year average pace. Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market ContextCorn FuturesBelow $5.00/bushelRecent TrendBearishRecent LowSix-week lowUS Sept. 1 Stocks2.095 billion bushelsYear-on-Year Stocks+35%2026/27 Export Commitments18.774 MMTExport Commitments vs. Last Year-31%Export Pace vs. 5-Year Average-8%Key Support$4.90–$4.95Key Resistance$5.00–$5.10Main DriversInventories, harvest, exports, China trade policy Corn Prices Remain Under Pressure Corn's move below $5.00 highlights the market's growing concern over the balance between supply and demand. The latest inventory figure provides evidence that US supplies are considerably larger than the market had anticipated. With the 2026 harvest continuing, the prospect of additional physical supplies entering the market could keep rallies limited unless demand improves significantly. The market is therefore likely to remain focused on the pace of harvest, producer selling and the ability of export demand to absorb available supplies. US Inventories Reinforce the Bearish Supply Picture The USDA's estimate of 2.095 billion bushels of corn stocks on September 1 represents a substantial increase from the previous year. The figure also exceeded market expectations by approximately 171 million bushels, making the inventory surprise particularly significant. Large beginning and current-season inventories increase the amount of corn available to domestic processors, livestock feeders and exporters. Unless demand accelerates, the larger supply base can create continued competition among sellers and place pressure on futures prices. Harvest Weather Could Increase Near-Term Supply Pressure Drier conditions across much of the Midwest are expected to allow fieldwork to accelerate. Faster harvesting could increase the volume of physical corn reaching elevators and processors over the coming weeks. While favourable harvest weather is positive from a production perspective, it can create additional short-term pressure on futures as farmers bring more of the crop to market. The market will therefore be watching both harvest progress and producer selling behaviour. If harvest advances rapidly while export demand remains weak, nearby futures could remain under pressure. Export Demand Remains a Major Concern US corn export commitments for the 2026/27 marketing year stand at 18.774 million tonnes, 31% below the same period last year and 8% below the five-year average. The weak pace suggests that international buyers are not absorbing US supplies at a rate sufficient to offset the larger domestic inventory base. Export demand will become increasingly important as the harvest progresses. Stronger sales could provide a floor under prices, while continued weakness would reinforce expectations of elevated ending stocks. Mexico Provides an Important Demand Signal A private sale of 218,600 tonnes of US corn to Mexico provides some support to the demand outlook. The sale includes 173,800 tonnes for the 2026/27 marketing year, demonstrating that US corn remains competitive in important export markets. However, individual sales need to develop into a broader improvement in export commitments before the market can treat the transaction as evidence of a sustained demand recovery. China Trade Policy Adds Pressure Across Grains Corn has also been affected by broader weakness across agricultural markets following indications that China could exclude US soybeans from proposed tariff reductions on American agricultural goods. Although the development is more directly relevant to soybeans, changes in US-China agricultural trade policy can influence the entire grain complex through shifts in acreage expectations, relative crop values and global demand. If soybean exports face additional uncertainty, the resulting pressure across the oilseed and grain markets could continue to weigh on corn sentiment. Bullish Scenario The downside pressure could ease if several supportive factors emerge. US export sales accelerate. Mexico and other major buyers increase purchases. Harvest-related selling pressure begins to moderate. Ethanol and domestic feed demand remain firm. Adverse weather affects remaining harvest activity. Global grain demand improves. Corn futures regain and hold above $5.00. A sustained move back above $5.00, followed by resistance around $5.10, would provide an early indication that selling pressure is losing momentum. Bearish Scenario The bearish case remains dominant if the supply-demand imbalance continues to widen. US inventories remain significantly above expectations. Harvest progresses rapidly. Producer selling increases. Export commitments remain below the historical pace. China-related trade uncertainty weighs on agricultural markets. Global grain supplies remain comfortable. Domestic demand fails to compensate for weak exports. A sustained break below the $4.90–$4.95 area would increase the risk of further downside as the market searches for a stronger demand-based floor. Corn Price Outlook Corn remains vulnerable while prices trade below $5.00. The first important test on any recovery is the $5.00 psychological level. A sustained move above it could encourage short covering and open the way toward the $5.10 region. Conversely, continued closes below $5.00 would keep the market focused on the $4.90–$4.95 area. A decisive break below this zone would strengthen the bearish technical structure and indicate that the market is increasingly pricing the combination of large inventories and weak export demand. Supply Outlook The US supply outlook remains comfortable. Large September inventories combined with the ongoing 2026 harvest suggest that physical availability is unlikely to become restrictive in the near term. Drier weather could accelerate harvest progress, increasing the flow of newly harvested corn into the domestic supply chain. The key supply question will therefore be whether producer selling accelerates faster than domestic and export demand can absorb the crop. Demand Outlook Demand remains the critical variable for the corn market. The current export commitment pace is weak, but the recent Mexico sale demonstrates that buyers remain active when US corn is competitively priced. A broader improvement in export sales would provide a stronger foundation for prices. Domestic feed, ethanol and industrial demand will also remain important in determining whether the larger supply base translates into significantly higher ending inventories. Louis Roche Analysis Corn is currently facing a clear supply-demand imbalance. The most important bearish signal is not simply that inventories are high, but that inventories have exceeded expectations by a substantial margin at the same time that export commitments are running well below last year's pace and the five-year average. That combination leaves the market needing stronger demand to absorb the additional supply. The Mexico sale provides an encouraging signal, but one transaction is unlikely to change the broader export picture. The next phase of the market will depend on whether additional international buyers emerge as prices move lower. The $5.00 level is therefore increasingly important from both a psychological and technical perspective. If corn can reclaim and sustain that level while export sales improve, the market could begin to stabilise. If prices remain below it while harvest accelerates, the downside risk remains elevated. The wider grain complex will also remain important. Developments in US-China agricultural trade, particularly around soybean demand, can influence relative crop economics and broader sentiment across the grain markets. Coming Sessions The corn market will remain focused on: US harvest progress Producer selling Weekly export sales and commitments Mexico and other international purchases Domestic ethanol demand Feed demand US inventory estimates Weather across the Midwest US-China agricultural trade policy Price action around the $5.00 level The combination of large supplies and weak exports remains the central bearish theme. A meaningful change in export demand would be required to shift the balance toward a more constructive price outlook. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Banks

October 5, 2026

US data week: ISM, labor and sentiment in focus – TD Securities

Munoz and Nir expect a relatively quiet US data calendar, with ISM Services likely slipping to 54.0 versus 55.0 consensus, modestly higher Jobless Claims, and a small decline in UMich Sentiment to 47.5. They note September payrolls moderated mainly on seasonal factors, while underlying labor-market strength and rising participation support a still-resilient backdrop. Services survey and labor signals "September payrolls surprised to the downside last week, but the details showed underlying strength. The moderation in job gains was largely driven by seasonal factors — especially in leisure & hospitality (LHS figure below). The 3m and 6m averages also show job gains within breakeven." "Meanwhile, the slight increase in the UE rate to 4.2% was for "good reasons" with participation and the employment-to-population ratio both rising." "ISM services likely reversed its unexpected August gain, falling to a below-consensus 54.0 in September. We expect the recently strengthening new orders and activity components to lead the reversal while employment likely improved for a second consecutive report — though we expect it to stay in contraction. Prices paid will also garner attention after rising the past two months." "Other key events this week includes a likely reversal in ISM services, decline in UMich (in line with last week's negative consumer confidence), the NY Fed SCE, and some more Fedspeak (see calendar below)." "This week will be quiet with a likely decline in ISM services, Fedspeak — with Waller the highlight, FOMC minutes, and UMich."

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Banks

October 5, 2026

US economy: Mixed labour and inflation picture – NBC Economics and Strategy

NBC Economics and Strategy highlights that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 29K in September versus a 90K consensus, while the household survey showed a 406K employment surge and a 4.2% unemployment rate. Q2 real GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualized. The headline PCE deflator stayed at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, both below expectations due partly to methodology changes. Soft payrolls and benign PCE "In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls rose 29K in September, a weaker print than the one anticipated by economists polled by Bloomberg (+90K)." "Released at the same time, the household survey painted a more upbeat picture of the situation prevailing in the labour market, as it showed employment surging 406K in September." "Despite the increase in employment in September, the unemployment rate rose by one tenth of a percentage point to 4.2%." "Still in the U.S., data released this week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed an upward revision to Q2 real GDP growth in the third estimate, from 1.5% to 2.2% on an annualized basis, a print higher than the consensus, which had predicted no revision." "The headline PCE deflator in the U.S. printed at 3.4% in August, unchanged from the prior month and significantly below consensus expectations (3.7%). The 12-month core measure also stayed unchanged, at 3.0%. Once again, this result was three-tenths lower than economists' expectations. It should be noted that part of the negative surprise in the inflation data was due to a change in methodology."

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Markets

October 5, 2026

XAG/USD gains near $61.00 as Fed rate hike odds decline

Silver rallies as disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls reduce expectations for an October Fed rate hike. Markets now price a 77.9% probability of steady Fed rates after September payrolls grew by just 29,000. Escalating geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East provided additional safe-haven support for precious metals. Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after registering losses in the previous day, trading around $61.00 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Non-yielding Silver gains support as softer-than-expected US employment figures reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Financial markets now price in nearly a 77.9% chance that the Fed will keep benchmark interest rates steady at its upcoming October policy meeting, up from 74% before the labor report. This shift reflects growing sentiment that a cooling job market will prompt policymakers to hold rates steady. The repricing in rate expectations follows a disappointing US labor market performance, with Nonfarm Payrolls expanding by only 29,000 positions in September. The print fell well short of Wall Street estimates targeting 90,000 additions and marked a steep slowdown from August’s revised figure of 133,000. Further signaling labor slack, the US unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, even as the labor force participation rate edged upward to 61.8%. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand remains supported by deteriorating geopolitical conditions in the Middle East as Saudi-backed forces in Yemen launched a major offensive to reclaim territory from Houthi forces. Tensions escalated sharply after the Iran-aligned group seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that provides a vital bypass route for regional crude exports, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. US rates seen easing as recent repricing pressure fades According to TD Securities, the recent backup in yields has been driven by “higher Fed pricing, growth expectations, and oil,” but their rates strategists now believe that “rates should breathe a sigh of relief” as that pressure abates. Set against the backdrop of the post-payrolls bull-steepening in US Treasuries and markets sharply pricing out further near-term Fed hikes, TD’s view underscores a shift toward a more benign rates environment after the latest bout of repricing.

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Markets

October 5, 2026

Gold holds gains above $4,150 as traders trim bets on Fed rate hikes

Gold price edges higher to around $4,160 in Monday’s early Asian session.  Softer US jobs data have strengthened investor bets that the Fed will keep rates on hold later this month. Oil-driven inflation concerns might cap the Gold’s upside.   Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to near $4,160 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal rebounds as weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data weigh on the US Dollar (USD).  Traders trim bets on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes after jobs data. US NFP rose by 29K in September, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. This figure followed the 133K increase seen in August (revised from 162K) and missed the market expectation of 90K. Markets currently see about a 22.1% chance of a US rate hike this month, compared to around 70% earlier in the week, the CME FedWatch Tool showed. It’s worth noting that higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not pay interest, making yield-bearing assets relatively more attractive. Nonetheless, rising oil prices amid ongoing US-Iran conflicts could raise inflation concerns, weighing on the yellow metal. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz is the main focus of Iran’s negotiations to end the war with the United States (US).  Meanwhile, Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that Tehran is not backing down from its conditions for opening the critical waterway, denouncing recent alleged US proposals as “unilateral demands.” Gold eases as elevated real yields cap bullion’s upside despite softer us pce According to analysts at UOB Group, “Gold spot was softer at $4,156/oz as elevated real yields capped the bullion’s upside,” with the metal ultimately “revers[ing] earlier gains – which saw it trade as high as $4,219/oz – to close 0.6% lower at $4,157/oz as elevated real yields continued to cap the bullion's upside.” On the macro front, UOB Group notes that “US headline PCE rose 0.3% m/m in Aug, in line with estimates, while the y/y rate fell to 3.4% from 3.7% in prior month,” adding that recent “BEA methodology revisions improved the optics but did not materially alter the underlying inflation narrative.” Logan’s hawkish tilt boosts Fed rate expectations and supports the Dollar Fed’s Logan delivers a distinctly more hawkish tone, with the 9.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 8.1/10 historical average, signaling a stronger inclination toward further tightening compared to the established baseline. The emphasis that higher yields may reflect increased term premiums, potentially reducing the need for additional tightening, is overshadowed by explicit calls for at least 50 bps more in rate hikes and several additional moves to revive price stability, underscoring a clear bias toward higher rates and a supportive backdrop for the Dollar. Logan’s characterization of policy as not yet restrictive, alongside a strengthening economic expansion and balanced labor market, reinforces the message that the Fed is prepared to push rates higher until inflation credibly converges to 2%. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rises by 1.68 points to 136.59, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading. This move confirms that market-implied Fed rhetoric has shifted further toward sustained tightening, reinforcing expectations of additional rate hikes and underpinning a structurally stronger Dollar narrative. Technical Analysis: In the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The metal is hovering just above the lower Bollinger band support, indicating that the recent slide is pressing into the lower edge of the current volatility envelope. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 39.50 sits in bearish territory but shy of oversold, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than exhaustion. On the topside, initial resistance is clustered around the Bollinger middle band at $4,275 and the 100-day SMA at $4,275, a dense cap that would need to be reclaimed to ease the bearish tone, with a subsequent barrier at the upper Bollinger band near $4,445. On the downside, immediate support is located at the lower Bollinger band at $4,102.30; a clear break beneath this floor would open the door to a deeper correction, while a hold above it would keep XAU/USD in a corrective bearish phase within the broader range.

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Energies

October 5, 2026

Oil Prices Ease as OPEC+ Holds Output Steady While Middle East Risks Persist

Crude oil prices are easing below $91 per barrel as markets balance renewed Middle East supply risks against the decision by OPEC+ to leave production quotas unchanged next month. The latest move comes as geopolitical tensions remain elevated across the region, with developments around Yemen and the Red Sea creating additional uncertainty over crude transportation routes. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has become an increasingly important focus after Houthi forces took control of areas around the strategic shipping corridor. At the same time, OPEC+ has opted to maintain its production policy rather than increase supply, limiting the prospect of additional barrels entering a market already dealing with disruptions linked to the wider Middle East conflict. Oil markets are therefore facing conflicting forces: supply risks remain elevated, but traders are also assessing whether weaker demand and the release of strategic reserves can prevent prices from moving decisively toward the $100-per-barrel level. Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent SituationCrude oilBelow $91/barrelRecent directionEasingKey upside reference$100/barrelOPEC+ policyProduction quotas unchanged next monthMain geopolitical riskMiddle East supply disruptionKey shipping corridorBab el-MandebAdditional riskStrait of Hormuz disruptionStrategic responseG7 emergency reserve releasesMarket biasHighly sensitive to supply developments Oil Prices Consolidate Below $91 Crude oil is easing after recovering substantially toward the $100-per-barrel threshold. The latest decline does not necessarily signal that the supply concerns have disappeared. Instead, traders are attempting to assess whether the current geopolitical disruptions will result in a sustained physical shortage or whether additional supply from strategic reserves and alternative export routes can absorb the impact. The market remains particularly sensitive to developments around the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz. Any deterioration in the security of these routes could quickly increase the risk premium embedded in crude prices. OPEC+ Keeps Production Policy Unchanged OPEC+ has agreed to leave production quotas unchanged next month. The decision is significant because oil prices are already elevated and the market is dealing with substantial uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply. Maintaining existing quotas means the group is not immediately adding another significant source of supply to counter the current disruption. For the market, the decision effectively leaves geopolitical developments and strategic reserve releases as two of the most important near-term variables. If disruptions intensify, the lack of additional OPEC+ supply could become increasingly supportive for prices. Yemen and Bab el-Mandeb Become Critical The situation around Yemen has become an increasingly important component of the oil market outlook. Saudi-backed forces have launched a major military operation aimed at retaking areas controlled by the Houthis after weeks of escalating tensions. The Houthis' control of areas around the Bab el-Mandeb creates an additional risk for energy transportation between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The importance of the corridor extends beyond regional security. Saudi Arabia has used routes through the Red Sea to export oil while reducing its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Greater disruption around Bab el-Mandeb could therefore limit the effectiveness of alternative export routes. Strait of Hormuz Remains a Major Risk The wider Middle East conflict continues to leave the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the global oil market. The waterway is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints, and any prolonged disruption would have consequences well beyond regional markets. The combination of risks around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb creates an unusual situation in which several important shipping corridors are simultaneously subject to elevated security concerns. This increases the value of alternative infrastructure and strategic reserves while raising the risk premium attached to physical crude. G7 Strategic Reserve Releases Limit the Upside The release of emergency oil reserves by G7 nations provides an important counterweight to the supply risks. Strategic reserves can temporarily increase available physical supply and help reduce the immediate impact of disrupted production or transportation. However, reserve releases are inherently finite. If Middle East disruptions persist for an extended period, the market could eventually begin questioning how much additional supply can be released and how long those barrels can offset lost production or exports. The effectiveness of the reserve response will therefore depend on both its scale and the duration of the disruption. Diesel Prices Add to Energy-Market Pressure Diesel markets remain particularly sensitive to the current supply situation. Record-high diesel prices at the pump are increasing pressure across transportation, logistics and industrial sectors. Diesel demand is closely linked to economic activity, meaning sustained price increases can eventually influence consumption. For crude oil, the key question is whether high refined-product prices encourage additional production and substitution or instead begin weakening demand. Bullish Scenario The bullish oil scenario would strengthen if: Middle East production or exports face additional disruption Bab el-Mandeb shipping remains severely restricted Strait of Hormuz risks increase Alternative Saudi export routes remain constrained OPEC+ maintains its current production policy Strategic reserve releases prove insufficient Diesel and other refined-product markets remain exceptionally tight Under these conditions, the market could retest the $100-per-barrel area and potentially move beyond it if physical supply losses become more significant. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would develop if: Middle East tensions begin to ease Oil transportation routes reopen or become more reliable Strategic reserve releases provide sufficient additional supply OPEC+ production remains stable while disrupted volumes return High fuel prices begin reducing demand Global economic activity weakens A reduction in the geopolitical risk premium could allow crude prices to retreat even without a major increase in OPEC+ production. Crude Oil Price Outlook The short-term oil outlook remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments. Prices below $91 indicate that traders are not yet pricing the most extreme supply-disruption scenario, despite the elevated regional risks. The $100-per-barrel area remains an important psychological and technical reference. A sustained move toward that level would require evidence that physical supply losses are becoming more difficult to replace. Conversely, continued stability below $91 would suggest that the market believes strategic reserves, alternative export routes and available production are sufficient to manage current disruptions. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains unusually uncertain. OPEC+ is maintaining its production quotas, while geopolitical disruptions are affecting important transportation routes. This leaves the market particularly sensitive to changes in actual production and exports. The next major supply signal will be whether Middle East disruptions expand beyond transportation risks and begin producing measurable reductions in crude production or exports. Demand Outlook High crude and diesel prices create a growing risk for global fuel demand. Consumers and businesses can absorb higher energy prices for a period, but sustained increases eventually affect transportation costs, industrial margins and household spending. If fuel prices remain elevated for an extended period, demand destruction could become an increasingly important counterweight to geopolitical supply risk. The market will therefore need to balance physical supply disruptions against the potential economic impact of higher energy costs. Louis Roche Analysis Oil markets remain caught between two powerful forces. On one side, the geopolitical risk premium is elevated. Developments around Yemen, Bab el-Mandeb and the wider Middle East create genuine uncertainty over the movement of crude and refined products. On the other side, the market has already experienced a significant price increase, while G7 strategic reserve releases provide an additional source of supply. The OPEC+ decision to leave production quotas unchanged is particularly important. It means the market is not receiving an immediate increase in official production to compensate for potential losses elsewhere. If the Middle East disruption remains contained, this may have limited impact. But if additional production or export capacity becomes unavailable, the absence of incremental OPEC+ barrels could become increasingly supportive for prices. The key level remains the $100-per-barrel area. A sustained move toward $100 would indicate that the market is increasingly pricing a prolonged physical supply problem rather than simply a temporary geopolitical risk premium. For now, the market is likely to remain extremely headline-sensitive. Any deterioration around major shipping routes could generate rapid upside moves, while signs of de-escalation could produce equally sharp reversals. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: Developments around Yemen and the Houthis Security conditions around Bab el-Mandeb Strait of Hormuz shipping activity Middle East crude production and exports OPEC+ production compliance G7 strategic reserve releases Saudi export flows Global diesel inventories and prices Evidence of demand destruction Crude oil's ability to hold above or below the $91 region The potential return toward $100 per barrel The oil market remains highly sensitive to the balance between geopolitical supply risks and the availability of replacement barrels. Until there is greater clarity around Middle East transportation and production, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Currency Hedger View Energy-market volatility can have a significant impact on international businesses, particularly where crude oil, refined products, freight and other commodities are priced in US dollars. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 5, 2026

European Natural Gas Rises as LNG Security Risks Tighten the Winter Supply Outlook

European natural gas prices are rising above €76/MWh, reaching their highest level in two weeks as renewed concerns over LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of tighter European energy markets. The strategic waterway remains critical to global energy flows, and continued security risks are creating uncertainty around the reliability of LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf. Although some Gulf LNG cargoes have continued to transit the strait, current volumes remain insufficient to completely ease concerns over global supply availability. At the same time, Europe is entering the winter heating season with gas inventories below their normal seasonal position. Storage is around 72% of capacity, compared with a five-year seasonal average of approximately 87%. The combination of below-average inventories, geopolitical supply risks and the possibility of colder weather creates a market where relatively small disruptions could have an amplified impact on European gas prices. Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent SituationEuropean natural gasAbove €76/MWhRecent price trendTwo-week highEuropean storageAround 72% fullFive-year seasonal averageAround 87%Key supply riskLNG flows through Strait of HormuzKey producer riskQatar LNG disruptionsMain seasonal driverEuropean winter heating demandNear-term biasUpside risk remains elevated European Gas Prices Regain Momentum The move above €76/MWh represents a significant change in short-term market sentiment. European gas prices had been influenced by expectations of adequate winter supply, but the latest security concerns are forcing the market to place a greater premium on supply reliability. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because a substantial proportion of global LNG and oil trade has historically passed through the waterway. Even when cargoes continue to move, concerns over vessel security, insurance costs, shipping delays and the reliability of future departures can create additional risk premiums in European gas markets. The current price increase therefore reflects not only physical supply but also the market's assessment of potential future disruption. Strait of Hormuz Remains a Critical LNG Risk The principal concern for European gas markets is the possibility that LNG flows from the Persian Gulf become increasingly constrained. Some LNG cargoes have continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating that the waterway has not been completely closed to energy shipments. However, volumes remain insufficient to eliminate concerns over supply tightness. For Europe, this matters because LNG provides an important source of flexible supply when pipeline deliveries or domestic production cannot fully satisfy demand. A prolonged reduction in Gulf LNG availability would therefore force European buyers to compete more aggressively for alternative cargoes. Qatar LNG Disruptions Add to Supply Concerns Qatar remains particularly important to the global LNG market. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy's Edison through December, adding another layer of uncertainty for European buyers. Any prolonged reduction in Qatari exports could increase competition for available LNG cargoes from the United States and other major suppliers. This would potentially lift European benchmark prices while also increasing the cost of replacing unavailable Persian Gulf volumes. European Storage Remains Below Seasonal Norms European gas inventories are around 72% full, significantly below the five-year seasonal average of approximately 87%. The difference is important as Europe moves deeper into the heating season. Storage provides a buffer against short-term supply disruptions and periods of elevated consumption. Lower starting inventories reduce that buffer and leave the market more sensitive to unexpected changes in supply or demand. The market therefore enters the winter with less flexibility than would normally be preferred. If withdrawals accelerate faster than expected, the gap between current inventories and seasonal norms could become an increasingly important pricing factor. Winter Weather Becomes Increasingly Important Weather will become one of the most important variables for European natural gas prices. A colder-than-expected start to winter would increase residential heating demand while simultaneously increasing withdrawals from underground storage. Under such conditions, the market could face a combination of higher demand and constrained LNG availability. Conversely, a mild winter would reduce heating demand and give European buyers more time to rebuild the storage buffer. The weather outlook will therefore increasingly determine whether current supply concerns translate into sustained price pressure. Global LNG Competition Europe is not the only market competing for LNG. Asian buyers remain an important source of demand, particularly when temperatures fall or regional inventories decline. If European buyers need to replace lost Gulf volumes, competition with Asian importers could intensify. This creates the possibility of a broader global LNG price response rather than an isolated European increase. The tighter the available global supply cushion becomes, the more sensitive prices will be to shipping disruptions and weather. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario for European natural gas would strengthen if: LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz deteriorate further Qatar's supply disruptions persist European storage withdrawals accelerate Winter temperatures become colder than expected Asian LNG demand increases Competition for Atlantic and US LNG cargoes intensifies Under these conditions, the European market could face a substantially tighter supply balance, creating further upside risk for benchmark gas prices. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario would develop if: LNG flows through the Persian Gulf remain broadly stable Security conditions around major shipping routes improve European weather remains mild Storage withdrawals remain limited Additional LNG supply reaches Europe Asian demand remains moderate A combination of stable imports and softer heating demand would allow Europe to gradually rebuild confidence in its winter supply position. European Natural Gas Price Outlook The near-term risk profile remains tilted toward higher volatility. The market is already pricing a degree of geopolitical risk, but further disruption to LNG flows could produce another sharp move higher. The €76/MWh region is therefore an important reference point for the current market structure. Sustained trading above this area would indicate that supply concerns are gaining greater influence over price formation. A reversal back below recent support would suggest that the market is becoming more confident that alternative LNG supplies and existing inventories are sufficient to manage the winter period. Supply Outlook European supply remains dependent on a combination of pipeline imports, domestic production, storage withdrawals and LNG. LNG is particularly important because it provides flexibility when other sources become constrained. The key uncertainty is whether sufficient alternative cargoes can be secured if Persian Gulf flows remain disrupted. Any prolonged reduction in Qatari or wider Gulf LNG availability would increase the importance of US and other Atlantic Basin suppliers. Demand Outlook European gas demand is expected to become increasingly weather-sensitive as the heating season develops. Residential and commercial heating demand will be the primary seasonal variable, while industrial and power-sector consumption will also influence the overall balance. A colder start to winter would quickly increase demand and accelerate storage withdrawals. A mild period, by contrast, would provide the market with additional time to manage the existing inventory deficit. Louis Roche Analysis European natural gas is entering a more sensitive phase as the market approaches the winter heating period with inventories below their normal seasonal position. The most important development is the interaction between physical storage and LNG security. At 72% full, European storage is not critically low in absolute terms, but the 15-percentage-point gap versus the five-year seasonal average reduces the market's margin for error. That becomes particularly important if LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain unreliable. The market does not necessarily require a complete disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipments to move substantially higher. A reduction in reliability, longer shipping times or increased competition for alternative cargoes can be sufficient to increase the risk premium. The next major variable is therefore weather. If Europe experiences a colder-than-normal start to winter while Gulf LNG flows remain constrained, storage withdrawals could accelerate and prices could move significantly higher. Conversely, stable LNG deliveries combined with mild weather would allow the market to absorb the current inventory deficit more comfortably. The key issue for the coming sessions is therefore not simply whether European gas prices can remain above €76/MWh, but whether supply disruption and winter demand begin reinforcing each other. Coming Sessions Markets will focus on: Developments around LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz QatarEnergy supply and delivery updates European storage levels and withdrawal rates European weather forecasts LNG arrivals into major European terminals Asian LNG demand Competition for US and Atlantic Basin LNG European industrial and power-sector gas demand Price action around the €76/MWh region European natural gas markets are entering the winter period with a smaller-than-normal supply cushion. If geopolitical risks persist while temperatures become colder, the market could face renewed upward pressure. Currency Hedger View Energy-market volatility can have a significant impact on international businesses, particularly where gas, electricity, transport or other commodities are priced in different currencies. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Banks

October 3, 2026

US labour market: Softer jobs ease Fed hike risk – ABN Amro

ABN Amro’s Rogier Quaedvlieg notes September US labour market data came in weaker than expected, with payrolls at 29k versus consensus 90k and prior months revised down by 60k. He see the report as mixed but consistent with its base case and reducing pressure for an October Fed hike. Weaker jobs and wages temper Fed "The September labour market report was somewhat weaker than we expected, although its qualitative picture broadly matched our expectations." "The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, largely because the participation rate increased by 0.2pp. Thus, while the headline numbers point to a soft report, the underlying picture is more mixed: unemployment rose partly because people on the sidelines resumed looking for work. One notable figure was the modest 0.1% m/m increase in average hourly earnings, which lowered the y/y rate to 3.0%." "This is good for the inflationary outlook, but potentially negative real earnings growth could weigh on consumption." "The three-month average of 51k is solid given labour supply, but it does not indicate a hot or tight market. This report, especially alongside the downside surprise in the PCE report earlier this week, removes the pressure on the Fed to hike in October." "We still expect persistent inflationary pressure from the energy shock to prompt one more Fed hike in December, for reasons similar to those in September: to prevent pass-through to consumer prices and wages."

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Banks

October 3, 2026

Canada labour market: Tariff effects assessed – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada analysts review Canada’s September labour report, the first full dataset since U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect. They estimate around 0.4% of Canada’s GDP and employment is tied to tariff-listed US demand. The bank expects tariffs to stall, but not reverse, labour market progress, with modest job gains and the unemployment rate holding near 6.4%. Jobs data under new U.S. tariffs "Canada’s labour report for September on Friday will be the first full month of jobs data since U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect on Aug. 22, offering important clues on their impact." "Overall, we estimate that about 0.4% of Canada’s gross domestic product, and employment supports U.S. demand for goods on the tariff lists." "We expect new tariffs may have stalled progress in Canada’s labour market, but are not severe enough to reverse it." "In September, total employment is expected to have risen by a modest 5,000, leaving year-to-date job growth slightly positive." "We continue to rely on the unemployment rate as a more reliable gauge of market conditions."

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Banks

October 3, 2026

Euro: October ECB hike odds seen limited – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered Global Research team discusses Euro area monetary policy, noting that core inflation has only edged up slightly since January and that higher yields pose downside risks to both growth and inflation. The authors judge that these factors reduce the chances of an October rate hike and expect the Governing Council to wait for new macroeconomic projections at the December policy meeting. Limited odds of October rate hike "Moreover, core inflation has drifted only modestly higher since late February, rising from 2.2% in January to 2.5% y/y in September." "In addition, Lagarde has highlighted the downside risks to both growth and inflation arising from higher yields." "These factors limit the likelihood of an October hike, in our view." "We also think, on balance, that the Governing Council would prefer to wait for new macroeconomic projections to deliver a policy rate change, the next of which will accompany the December policy meeting."

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Banks

October 3, 2026

RBI to keep tightening risks alive – MUFG

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asia FX will be driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) finely balanced decision on 7 October. They expect RBI to keep rates on hold but stress that a hiking cycle from December is likely, with a total of 50–75bps of tightening and a shift away from a neutral stance. RBI path and policy outlook "We are officially forecasting RBI to keep rates on hold, but more importantly we have already been calling for the central bank to start its hiking cycle from December so ultimately we think it’s just a matter of time before policy rates move higher." "We see a good chance RBI will also move its stance away from neutral to signal a tightening bias." "We have 50bps of rate hikes in our forecast profile, and have mentioned that there could be a risk of 75bps in total this cycle, given that growth is strong, liquidity is abundant, credit growth is picking up, fiscal policy is supportive, while higher commodity prices and adverse weather conditions lend inflation risk to the upside in India."

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Banks

October 3, 2026

US Dollar: Fading rallies as Fed pricing peaks – TD Securities

TD Securities' Macro Research’s FX team notes the softer US payrolls data is only marginally negative for the Dollar, with the labor market still described as buoyant and neither overheating nor deteriorating. They argue market pricing for Fed hawkishness has likely peaked and see near-term rate hike expectations easing in both the US and Europe. TD sees limited upside for USD "FX: We have a greater conviction to fade the USD rallies than to chase the USD to a new high." "The softer payrolls report (headline, AHE, revisions) is marginally weighing on the USD." "It is hard for us to see persistent bullish USD signals from the US data/ Fed channel alone." "However, we do not yet see the macro fundamentals justifying a move into a new higher orbit for the USD or a reversion back to peak safe haven era." "On balance, we have greater conviction in fading USD rallies than chasing for any return to 2025 highs."

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Markets

October 3, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: Bears crowd $60 after six-percent weekly rout

XAG/USD ends week down over 6%, approaching $60.00 support. Bearish RSI reinforces lower-high, lower-low structure beneath key moving averages. Break below $60.00 exposes $56.57 and YTD low $54.77. Silver price retreats on Friday, dropping about 0.76% as US Treasury yields edged higher, capping US Dollar depreciation, while investors punished the Greenback following a soft US jobs report. The XAG/USD trades at $60.50 at the time of writing. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook The white metal finished with weekly losses of over 6%, below the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $64.06-$64.74 and poised to test the $60.00 milestone in the near term. Bearish momentum continues to build as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its 50-neutral level and closer to the oversold level. Also, price action is respecting the series of lower highs and lower lows, further confirmation that sellers are in charge. The first support for XAG/USD is $60.00. If breached, a potential move to the August 3 low of the day (LOD) at $56.57 is on the cards. A decisive breakout will expose the year-to-date (YTD) low of $54.77. On the other hand, for a bullish reversal, buyers must push Silver back above the 50- and 100-day SMA, before claiming the $65.00. Even though that is a significant recovery, the bearish structure remains in charge, unless the bull clears the August 28 swing high of $71.12, the latest cycle high. XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver daily chart

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Energies

October 3, 2026

Crude Oil Slides as Strategic Reserve Release Offsets Middle East Supply Risks

Crude oil and gasoline prices are facing renewed pressure as the planned release of strategic petroleum reserves adds a significant source of supply to the market, while ongoing tensions across the Middle East and disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure continue to create risks to global oil flows. November WTI crude oil is trading lower after settling down $1.76, or 1.90%, while November RBOB gasoline declined $0.0902, or 2.65%. The market remains caught between expectations for additional supply from strategic reserves and growing concerns that geopolitical disruptions could tighten physical oil availability. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent ReadingMarket ImplicationNovember WTI Crude-$1.76 (-1.90%)Near-term pressureNovember RBOB Gasoline-$0.0902 (-2.65%)Weakness in refined productsG7 Strategic Reserve ReleaseUp to 100M barrelsBearish supply factorUS Crude Inventories2.0% above 5-year averageAdequate supplyUS Gasoline Inventories7.0% below 5-year averageRefined-product supportUS Distillate Inventories13.0% below 5-year averageTight product balanceUS Crude Production13.955M bpdRecord productionUS Oil Rigs45616-month highSaudi September Exports5.28M bpdHigher supplyMiddle East Export RiskElevatedGeopolitical support Strategic Reserve Release Changes the Near-Term Supply Balance The biggest immediate bearish factor for crude oil is the decision by the G7 and its partners to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from strategic reserves. The International Energy Agency is expected to coordinate the release over approximately four months. The additional barrels could increase available supply at a time when the market is already attempting to assess the impact of disrupted Middle Eastern and Russian exports. The announcement therefore places a significant cap on near-term price strength, particularly if the reserve barrels reach the physical market faster than geopolitical disruptions reduce supply. Middle East Tensions Remain a Major Supply Risk Despite the strategic reserve release, geopolitical risk continues to provide support for crude oil. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is considering military action against Houthi militants in Yemen, with potential operations along the Yemeni coast aimed at securing shipping routes through the Red Sea. The situation is particularly important because the Red Sea has become increasingly significant for Saudi oil exports following disruptions to other regional routes. The Bab-al-Mandeb Strait is a strategically important shipping corridor connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Further escalation could increase shipping risks and potentially force oil cargoes onto longer and more expensive routes. Any sustained disruption to regional exports would therefore counter some of the bearish impact from the strategic reserve release. Strait of Hormuz Remains a Critical Risk The broader Middle East supply picture remains highly sensitive to developments involving the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and Iran remain divided over control of navigation through the strategic waterway and wider geopolitical issues. Iranian officials have indicated that freedom of navigation through the Strait remains linked to the lifting of sanctions and the removal of a US blockade, while US officials continue to press for changes to Iran's position. Because a significant proportion of global oil flows through the region, any prolonged disruption to Hormuz would represent a substantially larger supply risk than the current Red Sea disruptions. Saudi Oil Flows Are Increasing Higher Saudi exports are providing a counterweight to geopolitical supply concerns. Bloomberg tracking data indicates Saudi crude exports reached approximately 5.28 million barrels per day in September, the highest level in seven months. Saudi Arabia has also restored approximately 3.5 million bpd of the East-West Pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity following repairs to infrastructure damaged by drone attacks. However, Saudi crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, reportedly the lowest level since 1990. The conflicting signals highlight the uncertainty surrounding Saudi Arabia's effective export capacity and actual production availability. Russian Supply Remains Under Pressure Russian oil infrastructure remains another important source of supply uncertainty. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks against Russian oil facilities, reducing refining activity and disrupting energy infrastructure. Russian crude-processing rates averaged approximately 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest level in 24 years, according to the supplied data. Russian crude production also declined to approximately 8.89 million bpd, the lowest level in six years based on secondary-source estimates published by OPEC. The disruption is extending beyond crude production. Russian gasoline output has also fallen sharply, contributing to domestic fuel shortages. If attacks continue to constrain Russian production and exports, global physical supply could become tighter even as strategic reserves are released. Global Oil Supply Remains Under Pressure Vitol has indicated that global oil markets are tightening, citing approximately 2 million bpd of lost Middle Eastern crude exports and another 2 million bpd of Russian supply disruption linked to Ukrainian attacks. Such estimates highlight the potential scale of supply losses confronting the market. However, the actual impact depends on how much of the disrupted production is permanently lost, how much is redirected through alternative routes and how quickly strategic reserves enter the market. This makes physical flow data increasingly important for determining whether headline supply losses translate into a sustained global deficit. OPEC+ Supply Adds Another Variable OPEC+ has completed the restoration of the 1.65 million bpd production reduction introduced in 2023. The group approved a final 188,000 bpd increase for September and indicated that production would remain broadly steady for the remainder of the year. However, actual output remains affected by geopolitical and operational constraints. OPEC crude production reportedly declined by 900,000 bpd in August to 19.91 million bpd, showing that announced production capacity does not necessarily translate into equivalent physical supply. The coming months will therefore depend on the difference between OPEC+'s stated production policy and actual barrels reaching the market. US Crude Inventories Remain Adequate The latest EIA data show US crude inventories at approximately 2.0% above the five-year seasonal average. This indicates that the US currently has adequate crude availability and provides a bearish counterweight to international supply concerns. US crude production is also running at a record 13.955 million bpd, rising 0.1% week over week. The combination of record domestic production and above-average inventories gives the US market a significant supply buffer. Refined Product Inventories Tell a Different Story Gasoline and distillate inventories remain substantially tighter than crude stocks. US gasoline inventories are approximately 7.0% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories are 13.0% below the five-year average. This tighter refined-product balance helps explain why gasoline prices can behave differently from crude oil. Low product inventories could become increasingly important as seasonal heating demand develops and refinery operations respond to changing margins. US Oil Drilling Activity Is Increasing Baker Hughes reported that active US oil rigs increased by one to 456, reaching a 16-month high. The increase reinforces the strength of the US upstream sector and suggests producers continue to maintain significant drilling activity despite recent oil-price volatility. Higher drilling activity, combined with record US crude production, could provide additional supply over the medium term if the current production trend continues. Oil Held on Tankers Is Increasing Vortexa data indicates that crude oil stored on tankers for at least seven days increased 4.4% week over week to 92.49 million barrels during the week ended September 25. Rising floating storage can have several interpretations, including logistical disruption, delayed deliveries or deliberate inventory positioning. In the current environment, the increase warrants monitoring because it could indicate that some barrels are temporarily outside normal commercial flows. Bullish Scenario Crude oil could find renewed support if: Middle East military tensions escalate. Red Sea shipping disruptions intensify. Strait of Hormuz flows become restricted. Russian crude production and exports fall further. OPEC+ struggles to maintain physical output. US gasoline and distillate inventories remain well below seasonal averages. Strategic reserve releases fail to fully offset physical supply losses. A prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern or Russian exports could overwhelm the short-term bearish effect of reserve releases. Bearish Scenario Downside pressure could intensify if: The G7 reserve release delivers the expected barrels into the market. Middle East tensions ease. Saudi exports remain elevated. US production stays near record levels. US crude inventories remain above seasonal averages. Global oil demand weakens in response to high prices. OPEC+ production increases translate into higher physical exports. The combination of strategic reserve barrels, strong US production and softer global demand would create a more comfortable supply balance. Crude Oil Price Outlook The oil market is currently being pulled in opposite directions. The 100-million-barrel strategic reserve release creates an immediate supply headwind, while Middle Eastern tensions and disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure create potentially significant upside risks. The key question is whether additional strategic supply can offset actual losses from geopolitical disruptions. Near-term price volatility is therefore likely to remain elevated, with headlines surrounding Middle Eastern shipping routes, Russian infrastructure and US-Iran relations capable of producing rapid changes in expectations. Supply Outlook Global supply remains difficult to assess because several competing forces are operating simultaneously. US production is at a record level, Saudi exports have increased and OPEC+ has restored its previous production reductions. At the same time, Russian infrastructure has been repeatedly targeted and Middle Eastern export routes remain vulnerable. The planned strategic reserve release provides another source of supply and could temporarily improve market availability. The longer-term balance will depend on whether geopolitical disruptions remain temporary or develop into sustained production and export losses. Demand Outlook Demand faces a more uncertain outlook. The IEA has warned that high prices and restricted supply could produce the largest annual decline in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic. High energy costs can also weaken economic activity, potentially reducing transportation, industrial and petrochemical demand. At the same time, lower gasoline inventories and tight distillate stocks indicate that parts of the refined-product market remain relatively constrained. The coming months will therefore depend on whether weaker macroeconomic demand offsets regional supply disruptions. Louis Roche Analysis The crude oil market is currently defined by a direct conflict between additional strategic supply and geopolitical supply risk. The G7 reserve release of up to 100 million barrels is significant because it provides the market with additional physical supply during a period of uncertainty. However, its impact should be measured against the actual volume and duration of disrupted exports from the Middle East and Russia. The US market currently provides a stabilising influence. Record crude production of 13.955 million bpd and inventories 2% above the five-year average indicate that domestic US supply remains strong. The more important warning signal is coming from refined products. Gasoline inventories are 7% below seasonal norms and distillates are 13% below average, meaning the physical product market remains considerably tighter than the headline crude inventory position suggests. For the coming sessions, the most important variables are likely to be Middle Eastern shipping security, Russian production and exports, strategic reserve flows, US production and refined-product inventories. If geopolitical disruptions intensify, the reserve release may only partially compensate for lost supply. If tensions ease while strategic barrels and strong US production enter the market, the supply balance could become considerably more comfortable. Coming Sessions Market attention will remain focused on: The implementation and timing of the G7 strategic reserve release. Developments involving Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Shipping conditions through the Red Sea and Bab-al-Mandeb. Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran relations. Russian crude production, refining and export flows. OPEC+ physical production. US crude, gasoline and distillate inventories. US crude production and drilling activity. Global oil demand expectations. The interaction between geopolitical supply disruptions and the release of strategic reserves is likely to remain the dominant driver of crude oil volatility. Currency Hedger View Crude oil volatility can have a significant impact on businesses exposed to energy costs, international purchasing and cross-border cash flows. Changes in oil prices can also influence inflation expectations, interest-rate expectations and currency markets. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Energies

October 3, 2026

Natural Gas Prices Recover as Cooler Weather Supports Demand While Storage Remains Elevated

Natural gas prices are finding support from changing US weather expectations, with forecasts for cooler conditions across parts of the northern and western United States potentially increasing heating demand later this month. However, the medium-term outlook remains balanced by strong domestic production, elevated storage levels and expectations for warmer-than-normal conditions associated with a potentially strong El Niño. The November Nymex natural gas contract is currently trading higher after recovering from early weakness, as weather forecasts have shifted cooler for October 12–15. The market is therefore balancing near-term demand support against a well-supplied fundamental backdrop. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent ReadingMarket ImplicationNovember Nymex Natural Gas+0.036 (+1.09%)Near-term supportUS Dry Gas Production111.9 Bcf/dayBearish supply pressureUS Lower-48 Gas Demand74.3 Bcf/dayStrong demand growthUS LNG Net Flows18.3 Bcf/dayExport demand remains importantUS Gas Storage+2.4% vs. 5-year averageAdequate supplyOctober Storage Forecast3,985 BcfElevated inventory riskEurope Gas Storage72% fullBelow seasonal averageUS Gas Rigs133Supply response remains active Natural Gas Market Recovers on Cooler Weather Forecasts Natural gas prices are recovering as weather models point toward cooler conditions across the northern and western United States during October 12–15. The shift is important because lower temperatures can increase residential and commercial heating demand, providing a seasonal demand boost as the market moves closer to the winter heating period. The near-term weather outlook therefore provides a source of support, particularly if cooler conditions become broader or persist for longer than currently anticipated. US Natural Gas Production Remains Strong US lower-48 dry gas production is estimated at 111.9 Bcf/day, representing a 2.7% increase from a year earlier. The continued expansion in production remains one of the most important factors limiting the upside potential for natural gas prices. Higher production provides additional supply entering the domestic market and can replenish storage when demand is not strong enough to absorb the additional volumes. The EIA has also increased its 2027 US dry natural gas production forecast to 116.0 Bcf/day, from its previous estimate of 115.3 Bcf/day. This reinforces the prospect of a structurally well-supplied US market over the medium term. US Gas Demand Is Rising US lower-48 gas demand is estimated at 74.3 Bcf/day, up 8.9% year over year. The increase provides an important counterbalance to higher production. Stronger domestic consumption can reduce the volume of gas available for storage and potentially tighten balances if demand continues to expand into the winter period. Weather will remain particularly important because heating demand can increase rapidly as temperatures move lower across major population centers. LNG Exports Remain an Important Demand Outlet Estimated net flows to US LNG export terminals are running at approximately 18.3 Bcf/day, down 3.5% week over week. Although the weekly decline represents some near-term softening, LNG exports remain a major structural source of demand for US natural gas. The continued expansion of US LNG capacity means international gas markets will remain an important influence on domestic balances. Higher LNG utilization can absorb significant volumes of US production, while weaker export flows could leave more gas available for domestic storage. Storage Remains a Key Bearish Consideration The latest EIA storage report showed US natural gas inventories increasing by 64 Bcf for the week ended September 25. The increase was slightly above the 63 Bcf market expectation but below the five-year average build of 80 Bcf. Inventories were 4.1% below year-ago levels, but still 2.4% above the five-year seasonal average. This suggests that the US market does not currently face a significant storage shortage heading into winter. The EIA has projected that US natural gas inventories could reach 3,985 Bcf at the end of October, which would represent the highest October storage level in approximately a decade and around 5% above the five-year average. Elevated inventories could therefore limit the market's ability to sustain large price increases unless weather or export demand creates a stronger draw on available supply. European Storage Remains Below Seasonal Norms European gas storage was approximately 72% full as of September 29, compared with a five-year seasonal average of around 87%. The relatively low level of European inventories provides an important international demand consideration heading into the winter heating season. If European temperatures become significantly colder, additional LNG demand could emerge as buyers seek to replenish inventories. This could potentially strengthen competition for US LNG cargoes and provide indirect support to US natural gas prices. El Niño Creates Medium-Term Demand Risk A major counterweight to the current cooler US forecasts is the potential development of a very strong El Niño pattern. A strong El Niño can produce warmer-than-normal conditions across parts of the Northern Hemisphere during the fall and winter, potentially reducing heating demand for natural gas. If warmer conditions dominate the winter season, the combination of high production and elevated storage could place renewed pressure on prices. The market will therefore remain highly sensitive to changes in long-range weather forecasts. US Electricity Demand Provides a Mixed Signal The Edison Electric Institute reported that US lower-48 electricity generation fell 0.85% year over year to 83,811 GWh during the week ended September 26. That represents a modest negative signal for natural gas demand from the power-generation sector. However, electricity generation over the preceding 52 weeks remained 3.27% above the previous year, reaching 4,411,446 GWh. The longer-term trend therefore continues to indicate meaningful electricity demand, although the immediate power-generation picture is less supportive. US Gas Rig Count Edges Lower Baker Hughes reported that active US natural gas drilling rigs declined by 2 to 133 during the week ended October 2. The figure remains only slightly below the recent three-year high of 135 rigs. The modest decline is not yet large enough to represent a major change in the production outlook, particularly given current production levels and the EIA's higher 2027 output forecast. A sustained decline in drilling activity, however, would become more significant if it eventually translates into slower production growth. Bullish Scenario Natural gas prices could find additional support if: Cooler US weather expands beyond the current northern and western forecast. Heating demand rises sharply as the winter season approaches. US LNG export flows increase. European buyers increase LNG demand because of below-average storage levels. US production growth slows. Storage builds remain below seasonal averages. A combination of stronger heating demand and robust LNG exports could tighten the US balance despite elevated production. Bearish Scenario Downside pressure could develop if: El Niño produces warmer-than-normal winter conditions. US dry gas production remains close to record levels. Storage continues building above seasonal norms. LNG export flows weaken. Electricity generation remains soft. The market approaches winter with inventories significantly above the five-year average. The biggest bearish risk remains the combination of high production and elevated storage entering a potentially warmer winter. Natural Gas Price Outlook The near-term outlook is supported by the latest shift toward cooler US weather, but the broader fundamental picture remains more balanced. The market needs sustained evidence of stronger heating demand to offset the effects of high production and elevated inventories. A move toward colder weather combined with stronger LNG demand could improve the balance quickly. Conversely, warmer winter forecasts could reinforce concerns that the market is carrying too much supply into the heating season. Supply Outlook US production remains the primary supply-side pressure. Output of 111.9 Bcf/day is already 2.7% above year-ago levels, while the EIA's revised 2027 forecast of 116.0 Bcf/day points toward continued production growth. The reduction in active gas rigs to 133 bears monitoring, but production remains sufficiently strong that a few weeks of lower drilling activity are unlikely to materially alter the immediate supply balance. Demand Outlook Demand is becoming increasingly weather-dependent. Current US gas demand is 8.9% above year-ago levels, providing a constructive signal. However, the strength of demand over the coming months will depend heavily on temperatures. LNG exports provide another important source of structural demand, while Europe's below-average storage position could support international demand for LNG if winter conditions become colder. Louis Roche Analysis Natural gas is entering a period where weather, storage and production are competing directly for market influence. The immediate price recovery is understandable given the cooler shift in US forecasts, but the larger issue is whether this weather support develops into sustained heating demand. Current production remains high, storage is already above the five-year seasonal average and the EIA expects inventories to reach a decade-high level for October. The most important variable heading into the winter period will therefore be the relationship between actual temperatures and available supply. If cooler weather arrives across major US demand regions while LNG exports remain strong, storage withdrawals could accelerate and improve the market balance. If the anticipated El Niño instead produces a predominantly warm winter, high production and elevated inventories could become increasingly restrictive for prices. The next phase of the market is likely to be driven less by production changes alone and more by whether weather demand is strong enough to absorb the available supply. Coming Sessions Market attention will remain focused on: Updated US weather forecasts for October and the early winter period. The next EIA natural gas storage report. Changes in US dry gas production. LNG export terminal flows. European storage levels and LNG demand. US natural gas drilling activity. Evidence of an emerging or strengthening El Niño pattern. The balance between cooler near-term weather and the prospect of elevated winter supply will remain central to price direction. Currency Hedger View Natural gas price volatility can affect businesses with energy-related costs, international purchasing requirements and cross-border cash flows. Changes in commodity prices can also influence inflation expectations, interest-rate expectations and currency markets. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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Markets

October 3, 2026

Coffee Prices Firm as Short Covering Meets Conflicting Crop Signals

Coffee prices are showing modest strength as short covering, currency movements and emerging concerns over Brazil's 2026/27 crop provide support. Robusta has been particularly firm, reaching a five-week high as speculative positioning becomes increasingly short. However, the broader fundamental picture remains mixed. Global production is expected to reach record levels, Brazil's 2026 crop estimates have been raised, and Vietnamese supplies are increasing. At the same time, dry conditions during Brazil's critical flowering period and historically low arabica inventories provide important upside risks. Market Snapshot MarketLatest LevelChangeDecember 2026 Arabica Coffee—+0.50 (+0.21%)November 2026 Robusta Coffee—+21 (+0.61%)Robusta Managed-Money Position3,959 net short13-month highICE Arabica Inventories260,054 bags8-week highICE Robusta Inventories5,398 lots10-month high2025/26 Global Production183.6M bagsRecord2026/27 USDA Production Forecast189.7M bagsRecord Coffee Market Firms as Short Covering Emerges Coffee prices are currently finding some support after a prolonged period of weakness. Robusta futures have reached a five-week high, with a weaker US dollar encouraging short covering across the coffee market. The positioning picture is particularly important for robusta. Managed-money funds increased their net-short position by approximately 2,658 contracts during the latest reporting period, taking total net shorts to 3,959 contracts, the largest short position in around 13 months. Such positioning can increase the potential for a short-covering rally if prices continue to move higher. Brazil Weather Becomes Increasingly Important Brazil's weather is becoming a key factor for the 2026/27 crop. Arabica coffee trees are currently entering an important flowering stage, making rainfall and soil moisture particularly significant for future production. Forecasts for limited rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica-producing region, have raised concerns about crop development. An extended period of dry weather during flowering could reduce flowering success and ultimately affect the size of the 2026/27 crop. The potential influence of El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty, with the weather pattern capable of producing irregular rainfall and temperature conditions across key coffee-producing regions. El Niño Creates Longer-Term Production Risk The potential strength of the developing El Niño pattern remains a medium-term concern for coffee producers. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the event could become one of the strongest El Niño patterns in more than 75 years. For coffee markets, the key concern is the potential disruption to rainfall during critical production periods in Brazil and other producing regions. If rainfall becomes insufficient during flowering and early fruit development, crop estimates could eventually be revised lower. However, the market still requires confirmation from actual weather conditions before translating the risk into a significant production reduction. Brazil Production Outlook Remains Large The immediate Brazilian supply outlook remains bearish. Brazil's crop forecasting agency Conab has raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to approximately 67.6 million bags, from 66.7 million previously. Arabica production is expected to increase approximately 34.8% year-on-year to 48.21 million bags, while robusta production is projected to decline approximately 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The large increase in arabica production is an important reason why global supply expectations remain elevated. Brazil Exports Add Physical Supply Brazilian coffee continues to move into international markets as the harvest season approaches completion. Brazilian coffee exports reached a record 4.155 million bags in August, up approximately 31% year-on-year. Arabica exports increased around 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports climbed approximately 54% to 953,592 bags. Separate trade data also showed August coffee exports rising approximately 44.6% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in eight months. The strong export flow is adding physical availability to international markets and remains a significant counterweight to weather-related bullish expectations. Vietnam Supply Remains Strong Vietnam is also contributing to the global supply picture. Vietnamese coffee exports during January through August increased approximately 13.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million metric tons. Full-year 2025 exports increased approximately 17.5% to 1.58 million tons. Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to rise approximately 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, which would represent a four-year high. Improved rainfall in the Central Highlands is also supporting soil moisture and cherry development. This is particularly relevant for robusta because Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer. Global Coffee Supply Remains a Major Headwind The broader global balance remains a bearish consideration. The International Coffee Organization estimates that 2025/26 global production increased approximately 4.4% year-on-year to a record 183.6 million bags. Consumption is estimated to have declined approximately 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, creating a global surplus of around 3 million bags. This would represent the first global coffee surplus in five years. The USDA's 2026/27 forecast is even larger, with global production projected to increase approximately 6% to a record 189.7 million bags. World ending stocks are expected to increase by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Arabica Inventories Provide Support Despite the large global production outlook, arabica inventories remain an important supportive factor. ICE arabica stocks recently fell to approximately 217,646 bags, the lowest level in 27 years. Inventories have since recovered to around 260,054 bags, an eight-week high, but remain relatively low from a historical perspective. The inventory situation therefore provides a potential buffer against excessive downside pressure in arabica, particularly if crop concerns begin to intensify. Robusta Inventories Remain Elevated Robusta presents a different inventory picture. ICE robusta inventories have increased to approximately 5,398 lots, the highest level in around ten months. The combination of rising Vietnamese exports, higher global production expectations and increasing exchange stocks continues to create pressure on the robusta supply outlook. However, the substantial managed-money short position provides an important source of potential short-term upside volatility. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario would develop if weather concerns begin translating into lower production expectations. Potential supportive factors include: Dry conditions during Brazil's flowering period. A stronger-than-expected El Niño impact. Lower Brazilian 2026/27 crop estimates. Deteriorating conditions in Minas Gerais. Continued historically low arabica inventories. Further short covering in robusta. Strong global consumption. A weaker US dollar. Under this scenario, the market could begin to price a tighter supply balance despite the current record-production forecasts. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario remains centred on abundant global supply. Brazil's large crop and strong export flows are increasing physical availability, while Vietnam is also reporting stronger exports and improved growing conditions. The global surplus projected for 2025/26 and record production forecast for 2026/27 provide a significant fundamental headwind. Higher ICE robusta inventories and recovering arabica stocks could reinforce the bearish outlook if weather risks fail to develop into measurable production losses. Coffee Price Outlook The coffee market is currently being driven by a conflict between strong supply expectations and emerging weather risks. Near-term price action can remain supported by short covering, particularly in robusta, where managed-money positioning has become heavily short. The larger question is whether weather conditions in Brazil will materially alter the 2026/27 production outlook. For now, the market has substantial projected supply ahead, but any deterioration during the flowering period could quickly change expectations. Supply Outlook Global coffee supply is expected to remain large. Brazil's 2026 production estimate has been raised, while the USDA expects global 2026/27 production to reach a record 189.7 million bags. Vietnam is also contributing additional robusta supply through higher exports and improved growing conditions. However, the forward supply outlook remains vulnerable to weather. Brazil's flowering period represents an important point of focus, particularly if El Niño produces prolonged dryness or abnormal temperatures. Demand Outlook Demand signals remain broadly constructive but need to be monitored against the large projected production increase. The ICO estimates consumption declined in 2025/26, contributing to a global surplus. If consumption fails to accelerate while production continues to rise, the market could remain well supplied. Conversely, stronger consumption combined with production disruptions would reduce the projected surplus and provide a more supportive environment for prices. Louis Roche Analysis Coffee is currently presenting two very different fundamental stories. The first is the large global supply story. Brazil is producing a substantial crop, exports are moving at strong levels and Vietnam is also contributing increased robusta supplies. The USDA is forecasting another record global production level for 2026/27. The second is the forward weather risk. Brazil's next crop is entering an important flowering period, and rainfall conditions during this stage can have a meaningful influence on eventual production. If El Niño produces persistent dryness across key growing regions, the market could begin revising production expectations lower. The positioning structure adds another dimension. Robustas have accumulated a significant managed-money net-short position, creating the potential for short covering if weather or currency developments push prices higher. Arabica inventories also deserve attention. Although stocks have recovered from their recent 27-year low, they remain a fundamentally important source of support if physical availability tightens. In my view, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to Brazilian weather over the coming weeks. The current supply picture argues for caution on the upside, but the combination of flowering-stage weather risk, low historical arabica inventories and heavy robusta short positioning means that price volatility could remain elevated. The key transition to watch is whether the market moves from record-supply expectations toward evidence of production risk. Coming Sessions The coffee market will focus on: Brazilian rainfall across Minas Gerais. Flowering progress for the 2026/27 crop. El Niño developments. Conab production estimates. Brazilian export volumes. Vietnamese export activity. ICE arabica inventories. ICE robusta inventories. Managed-money positioning. Global consumption and coffee demand. US dollar movements. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 3, 2026

Cocoa Rebounds as Ghana Raises Farmer Prices While Supply and Demand Signals Diverge

Cocoa prices are showing renewed strength as higher producer prices in Ghana, emerging El Niño risks and concerns over the next West African crop provide support. At the same time, strong current-season production from Ivory Coast and Ghana, elevated exchange inventories and mixed chocolate demand continue to create a complex fundamental backdrop. The market is therefore balancing improving medium-term supply risks against evidence that near-term availability remains relatively strong. Market Snapshot MarketLatest LevelChangeDecember 2026 ICE NY Cocoa—+289 (+5.37%)December 2026 ICE London Cocoa—+207 (+5.13%)ICE Cocoa Inventories3.50 million bags2.25-year highIvory Coast 2025/26 Harvest2.06 MMT+30% YoYIvory Coast Port Shipments2.18 MMT+19.8% YoYGhana 2026/27 Crop Estimate650,000 MT-13% YoYStoneX 2026/27 Global Surplus25,000 MTDown from 149,000 MT Cocoa Market Rebounds Sharply Cocoa prices have rebounded strongly after recently falling to two-month lows. The latest advance has pushed both New York and London cocoa futures to approximately two-week highs, with the move supported by developments in Ghana and increasing attention on the potential weather impact of El Niño across West Africa. The recovery is significant because the market had recently been under pressure from concerns about consumer demand and evidence of abundant cocoa availability from Ivory Coast. The current price structure therefore reflects a market transitioning from a focus on immediate supply toward increasing uncertainty around the next crop cycle. Ghana Raises Cocoa Farmer Prices Ghana has increased the price paid to cocoa farmers for the 2026/27 season. Farmers will receive approximately $3,647 per metric ton, representing an increase of around 2.4% from the previous adjustment in February. Higher producer prices could influence regional cocoa flows. There is concern that the price differential could encourage some Ivory Coast cocoa to move into Ghana through informal channels, potentially affecting the normal flow of beans into the international market. The development adds another variable to West African supply dynamics as the new cocoa season gets underway. El Niño Creates Medium-Term Supply Risk Weather is becoming increasingly important to the medium-term cocoa outlook. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest events seen in more than seven decades. El Niño conditions can produce warmer and drier weather across parts of West Africa. For cocoa production, reduced soil moisture and increased tree stress can negatively affect pod development and yields. The potential impact will depend on the intensity and duration of the weather pattern, but the risk is already influencing longer-term production expectations. Ivory Coast Supply Remains a Bearish Factor Despite the emerging weather risks, current Ivory Coast production remains a major source of supply-side pressure. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator reported that approximately 2.06 million metric tons were harvested between June 2025 and June 2026, an increase of around 30% from the previous season's 1.58 million tons. Port arrivals have also remained strong. Cumulative shipments to Ivory Coast ports during the relevant international cocoa marketing period reached approximately 2.18 million metric tons, around 19.8% above the comparable period a year earlier. This confirms that the current supply environment remains considerably stronger than the previous season. Next Ivory Coast Crop Faces More Uncertainty The outlook for the next Ivory Coast crop is considerably less certain. Early field surveys indicate below-average cherelle formation, which can be an early indicator of weaker pod development and lower eventual production. Initial estimates place the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop around 1.8 million metric tons, approximately 18% below the estimated 2.2 million tons produced during 2025/26. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine in parts of Ivory Coast and Ghana have also raised concerns about black pod disease and bean quality. If these conditions persist, the impact could extend beyond production volumes to the quality and marketability of the crop. Ghana Crop Outlook Remains Constrained Ghana is also facing a potentially significant reduction in production. The country's cocoa authorities estimate the 2026/27 crop at approximately 650,000 metric tons, down around 13% from 750,000 tons in the previous season. Other projections are considerably more cautious. COCOBOD has indicated that production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons, compared with approximately 750,000 tons projected for the previous season. Swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and the potential effects of El Niño are among the factors contributing to the lower production outlook. Global Surplus Expectations Are Narrowing The global balance is also becoming more supportive. StoneX has reduced its estimate for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to approximately 25,000 metric tons, down sharply from its previous estimate of 149,000 tons. Transgraph Consulting has projected a global surplus of approximately 80,000 metric tons for 2026/27, compared with 415,000 tons in 2025/26. Its production estimate also points to a decline in global output to approximately 4.87 million metric tons, from 5.11 million tons in the previous season. The reduction in expected surplus does not necessarily indicate an immediate shortage, but it suggests that the global balance could become considerably tighter if West African production declines as currently projected. Inventories Remain a Bearish Counterweight Exchange inventories provide an important counterpoint to the emerging production concerns. ICE cocoa inventories have risen to approximately 3.50 million bags, the highest level in around 2.25 years. Elevated stocks indicate that physical availability remains relatively comfortable in the immediate term. This means the market has to distinguish between the current supply situation and the potential supply situation later in the 2026/27 season. If inventories remain elevated while demand stays subdued, the market could struggle to sustain rallies. Conversely, declining production combined with stronger demand could eventually draw stocks lower. Chocolate Demand Remains Mixed Demand signals remain inconsistent across the major processing regions. European cocoa grindings declined approximately 4.6% year-on-year in Q2, reaching 316,366 metric tons. This represented a larger decline than expected and the lowest Q2 grinding volume in six years. North American demand provided a contrasting signal. Q2 cocoa grindings increased approximately 7.7% year-on-year to 109,659 metric tons. Asian demand was stronger still, with Q2 cocoa grindings increasing approximately 25% year-on-year to 224,646 metric tons. The regional divergence means that the global demand picture cannot be characterised by a single trend. Consumer Demand Adds Uncertainty Chocolate pricing and consumer sentiment remain another consideration. Lindt & Sprüngli has reduced chocolate prices for a second time during the year and lowered its 2026 organic sales-growth outlook to 0%–2%, from a previous range of 4%–6%, citing subdued consumer sentiment. This suggests that high cocoa costs and broader consumer conditions remain relevant to chocolate manufacturers. If lower retail prices stimulate consumption, demand could improve. However, weaker consumer confidence could continue to limit chocolate consumption in some developed markets. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario would develop if the anticipated reduction in West African production becomes increasingly evident. Potential supportive factors include: A stronger-than-expected El Niño impact on West African weather. Further reductions in Ivory Coast and Ghana crop estimates. Poor pod development continuing into the main crop. Increased black pod disease and quality problems. A narrowing global surplus. Strong Asian and North American grindings. Lower exchange inventories later in the season. Disruptions to normal West African bean flows. Under this scenario, the market could increasingly price the risk of a tighter 2026/27 global cocoa balance. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario remains linked to abundant current-season supplies and weaker consumer demand. High ICE inventories provide a substantial physical buffer, while strong Ivory Coast production has increased available cocoa. European grindings remain weak, and subdued consumer sentiment could restrict chocolate demand. If West African production remains stronger than the early forecasts suggest and exchange inventories remain elevated, the market could face renewed pressure despite the longer-term weather concerns. Cocoa Price Outlook The cocoa market is currently transitioning between two fundamentally different periods. Near-term conditions remain influenced by strong current-season supply and elevated inventories, while the outlook for the next crop is becoming more uncertain. The most important question is whether declining production expectations in Ivory Coast and Ghana will eventually translate into tighter physical availability. Weather developments across West Africa will therefore become increasingly important. A significant deterioration in growing conditions could shift the market's attention away from current inventories toward future supply risk. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook remains relatively comfortable due to strong Ivory Coast production and elevated inventories. However, early indicators for the next crop are considerably less constructive. Lower cherelle formation, potential disease pressure, reduced Ghanaian production and the possibility of El Niño-related weather stress all point toward greater uncertainty for 2026/27 output. The market will need confirmation from crop surveys and field conditions before fully pricing these risks. Demand Outlook Global cocoa demand remains mixed. European processing activity is showing weakness, while North American and Asian grindings have provided stronger signals. The performance of Asian demand is particularly important because the increase in regional grinding activity provides evidence that consumption and processing remain active despite higher cocoa prices. At the same time, weaker consumer sentiment and changes in chocolate pricing could limit demand growth in some markets. Louis Roche Analysis Cocoa is entering a market phase where the distinction between current supply and future supply is becoming increasingly important. The current balance remains relatively comfortable. Ivory Coast production has been strong, port shipments are significantly higher than last year and ICE inventories have reached a multi-year high. Those factors explain why the market has struggled to maintain sustained upside momentum. However, the outlook beyond the current supply cycle is becoming more uncertain. Early crop indicators from Ivory Coast are pointing toward weaker pod development, while Ghana is also facing a potentially significant decline in production. The potential El Niño event adds another layer of risk. If warmer and drier conditions develop across West Africa during critical stages of crop development, production estimates could be revised lower. Demand will ultimately determine how quickly any reduction in production translates into tighter market conditions. European grindings are currently weak, but North American and Asian processing data are considerably more constructive. In my view, the key issue for the coming months is whether the market moves from a period of abundant current availability toward a tighter forward balance. The answer will depend heavily on West African weather, crop development, inventories and the durability of global chocolate demand. Coming Sessions The cocoa market will focus on: El Niño developments and West African weather. Ivory Coast crop conditions and pod development. Ghana production estimates. Black pod disease and cocoa quality. Ivory Coast port arrivals and export flows. ICE exchange inventories. European, North American and Asian cocoa grindings. Chocolate pricing and consumer demand. Revisions to global surplus and production forecasts. Changes in West African producer pricing and bean flows. Currency Hedger View For businesses with cocoa-related international exposure, the current market demonstrates the importance of monitoring both commodity fundamentals and currency movements. Cocoa prices are being influenced by a combination of West African production, weather risk, inventories and global chocolate demand. These factors can change rapidly as the new crop develops. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets. For informational purposes only and not intended as investment, trading, financial or commodity advice.

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October 3, 2026

Corn Futures Under Pressure as Harvest Advances and Export Demand Lags

Corn futures are facing continued pressure as seasonal harvest progress, heavy speculative liquidation and a slower export commitment pace weigh on the market. December corn has experienced a substantial weekly decline, while managed money has continued reducing its large net-long position. A private export sale to Mexico provides some near-term demand support, but the broader export commitment picture remains below last year's level and the five-year seasonal average. Market Snapshot MarketLatest LevelChangeDecember 2026 Corn$4.97 3/4-4 1/2¢March 2027 Corn$5.11 1/2-5 1/4¢May 2027 Corn$5.18 1/2-5 1/4¢Nearby Cash Corn$4.59-2 1/4¢New Crop Cash$4.62-3 3/4¢December Weekly Change—-30 1/2¢ Corn Market Remains Under Pressure Corn futures remain under pressure as the market absorbs increasing harvest supplies and continued speculative liquidation. December corn has declined approximately 30 1/2 cents over the latest weekly period, representing a move of roughly 5.77%. The nearby cash market is also weaker, while new-crop cash values remain under pressure. The combination of seasonal supply, weaker export commitments and a substantial reduction in speculative length is creating a challenging short-term environment for corn prices. Harvest Progress Becomes a Key Market Driver Harvest conditions are expected to improve across much of the US growing region over the coming week. A more favourable weather window could allow fieldwork to resume, particularly in areas that have experienced excessive moisture. Improving harvest progress would increase the flow of physical corn into the commercial market and could encourage additional producer selling. The pace of harvest will therefore remain an important price driver. Faster progress would reinforce the seasonal supply pressure, while renewed weather disruptions could temporarily limit producer deliveries and provide some support. Mexico Provides Fresh Export Demand USDA has reported a private export sale of 218,600 metric tons of corn to Mexico. The sale includes: 173,800 MT for the 2026/27 marketing year 22,400 MT for 2027/28 22,400 MT for 2028/29 The multi-year structure of the transaction provides evidence of continued Mexican demand for US corn and offers some support to the longer-term export outlook. However, one private sale does not change the broader export picture, which remains considerably weaker than the historical seasonal pace. Export Commitments Remain a Concern Total US corn export commitments currently stand at approximately 18.774 million metric tons. That is around 31% below the same period last year. Commitments represent approximately 23% of the US export projection, while the current sales pace is around 8% behind the five-year average. This is one of the most important fundamental concerns facing the corn market. For prices to establish a stronger recovery, export demand will likely need to accelerate and demonstrate that the current seasonal supply increase can be absorbed by both domestic and international buyers. Managed Money Continues to Liquidate Speculative positioning remains another major source of pressure. Managed money reduced its net-long position in corn futures and options by approximately 36,587 contracts during the latest reporting period. The resulting net-long position stands at approximately 377,850 contracts. The majority of the reduction came through long liquidation, meaning speculative investors have been reducing existing bullish exposure rather than simply adding new short positions. The remaining net-long position is still substantial. If futures remain under technical pressure, further liquidation could extend the downside move. Conversely, a stabilisation in fundamentals or an improvement in export demand could encourage some of the recently liquidated length to return. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario would require an improvement in demand or a disruption to the expected harvest supply flow. Potential supportive factors include: Faster US export sales and shipments. Additional private export purchases. Continued strong Mexican demand. Weather disruptions slowing harvest progress. Strong domestic feed demand. Increased ethanol demand. A slowdown in managed-money liquidation. A weaker US dollar improving export competitiveness. Under this scenario, the market could begin to stabilise as demand absorbs the additional harvest supply. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario remains centred on abundant physical supply combined with weak export demand. If weather allows harvest to accelerate, more corn could enter the commercial market at a time when export commitments remain below last year's level and the five-year average pace. Additional managed-money liquidation could amplify the pressure. The current speculative net-long position remains large enough that continued weakness could trigger another wave of position reduction. Corn Price Outlook The near-term price outlook remains pressured while harvest expands and speculative length is being reduced. The key issue is whether demand can begin catching up with the available supply. A stronger export sales and shipment pace would provide an important signal that the current supply increase can be absorbed. Until that occurs, the combination of harvest pressure and speculative liquidation is likely to remain a significant influence on futures. Supply Outlook US corn supply is increasing as harvest progresses. The coming weather window could allow producers to make further progress across the major growing regions, increasing physical availability. The market will therefore be watching harvest progress, producer selling and local basis levels closely. If harvest advances rapidly, commercial inventories could build quickly and place additional pressure on nearby futures. Demand Outlook The demand picture remains mixed. The new Mexico sale demonstrates that US corn continues to attract international buyers, including demand extending into future marketing years. However, total commitments remain approximately 31% below last year's level and 8% behind the five-year average sales pace. This means the market needs stronger and more consistent export activity to offset the pressure created by increasing US supplies. Domestic ethanol production, livestock feed demand and international purchases will remain important components of the demand outlook. Louis Roche Analysis The corn market is currently dealing with a combination of seasonal supply pressure and weaker-than-normal export commitments. The most significant issue is not simply the size of the US crop entering the market, but whether demand is strong enough to absorb those supplies without creating additional pressure on basis and futures prices. The latest Mexico sale is constructive because it includes purchases extending across three marketing years. It demonstrates that international buyers continue to secure US corn beyond the immediate delivery window. However, the broader commitment data remain less supportive. With total commitments 31% below last year and 8% behind the five-year average pace, the market needs a meaningful improvement in export activity. Speculative positioning is another important factor. Managed money has reduced its net-long exposure by more than 36,000 contracts, primarily through liquidation. With approximately 377,850 contracts still net long, the possibility of additional position reduction remains relevant if the market continues to weaken. The next stage of the market will therefore be determined by the interaction between harvest supply and demand. A faster harvest combined with weak export sales would keep the market under pressure, while improving exports, stronger domestic demand or harvest delays could help stabilise prices. Coming Sessions The market will focus on: US harvest progress. Weather conditions across the Corn Belt. Producer selling and cash-market basis levels. Weekly export sales and shipments. Additional private export announcements. Mexican and other international demand. Ethanol production and domestic usage. Managed-money positioning. US dollar movements and broader agricultural commodity sentiment. Currency Hedger View For businesses with corn-related international exposure, the current market demonstrates how quickly commodity prices can respond to changes in harvest expectations, export demand and speculative positioning. The combination of a large US harvest supply flow and slower export commitments could keep volatility elevated, while currency movements can add another layer of uncertainty to international transactions. Currency Hedger provides businesses with tools to manage foreign-exchange exposure while monitoring the broader market factors that influence international commodity flows. Open a Currency Hedger account:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets / Currency Hedger This article is provided for informational and market-analysis purposes only. It does not constitute investment, trading, financial or commodity advice. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results.

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October 3, 2026

Soybeans Face Near-Term Pressure as Harvest Resumes and Positioning Shifts

Soybean futures are facing renewed pressure as seasonal harvest activity, shifting speculative positioning and a strong export commitment pace shape the near-term market outlook. November soybeans have experienced a significant weekly decline, while soybean meal remains under pressure despite historically strong speculative positioning. Soybean oil is providing relative strength within the complex. The market is entering an important period in which improving harvest conditions could increase physical supplies, while exceptionally strong export commitments provide an important counterbalance to bearish seasonal pressure. Market Snapshot MarketLatest LevelChangeNovember 2026 Soybeans$12.78 1/4-5 3/4¢January 2027 Soybeans$12.94 1/2-6 1/4¢March 2027 Soybeans$13.04 3/4-6¢Nearby Cash Soybeans$12.23-6¢New Crop Cash$11.85-3 1/4¢Soybean Meal—-$2.40 to -$7.40Soybean Oil—+104 to +125 points Soybeans Remain Under Pressure Soybean futures are currently trading with a softer tone, with losses extending across the nearby contracts. November soybeans have declined substantially over the latest weekly period, highlighting the degree of selling pressure entering the market. The weakness is occurring despite exceptionally strong export commitments, suggesting that traders are currently placing greater emphasis on the approaching harvest supply increase and speculative liquidation. The nearby cash market is also weaker, while new-crop cash values remain below the futures market, reflecting continued pressure from seasonal supply availability. Harvest Conditions Could Improve Harvest progress remains an important short-term market driver. Weather conditions are expected to provide a more favourable window for fieldwork across much of the US growing region over the coming week. A period of reduced rainfall could allow producers to resume harvesting and increase the movement of soybeans into commercial channels. If harvest activity accelerates, the additional physical supply could temporarily increase pressure on basis levels and futures prices. The market will therefore be closely monitoring harvest progress alongside regional basis movements and producer selling. Export Commitments Provide Fundamental Support Despite the recent price weakness, US soybean export demand remains a significant supportive factor. Total soybean export commitments have reached approximately 22.236 million metric tons, representing an increase of around 89% from the same period last year. Commitments currently represent approximately 48% of the USDA export projection, compared with an average historical sales pace of around 40% at this point in the marketing cycle. This provides an important contrast with the recent futures performance. The exceptionally strong commitment pace suggests that underlying international demand remains substantial, particularly when compared with the same point last year. However, the market will need to see continued shipment activity to determine whether these commitments translate into sustained physical demand throughout the marketing year. Speculative Positioning Is Becoming More Important Managed money held a net long position of approximately 241,164 soybean futures and options contracts as of September 29. That position declined by approximately 23,877 contracts during the week, primarily through liquidation of existing long positions. The reduction is significant because it indicates that speculative selling is contributing to the current weakness rather than the move being driven exclusively by changes in the underlying fundamental balance. Soybean meal positioning is even more notable. Managed money increased its record net-long soybean meal position by approximately 15,048 contracts to 207,416 contracts. This leaves the meal market carrying an unusually large speculative long exposure. While strong meal fundamentals can continue to support prices, the size of the position also creates the potential for increased volatility if traders begin reducing exposure. Soybean Oil Provides Relative Strength Soybean oil is currently providing the strongest tone within the soybean complex. While soybeans and soybean meal remain under pressure, soybean oil futures have been moving higher, with contracts gaining between approximately 104 and 125 points. December soybean oil has also maintained a positive weekly tone. The divergence between soybean oil and soybean meal is an important feature of the current market structure. Changes in biofuel economics, vegetable-oil demand and the relative profitability of soybean processing can all influence how value is distributed across the complex. Bullish Scenario A bullish scenario would develop if several factors combine: US export commitments continue to exceed historical seasonal norms. Export shipments accelerate alongside existing commitments. Harvest progress encounters additional weather disruption. Producer selling remains limited despite the seasonal supply increase. Soybean oil strength continues to support crush economics. Chinese and other major-importer demand remains strong. Speculative liquidation slows and new buying returns. Under this scenario, the market could increasingly focus on strong export demand rather than the temporary harvest pressure. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario is centred on the arrival of additional physical supply. A rapid improvement in harvest conditions could increase farmer selling and commercial inventories at a time when futures have already weakened. Further liquidation from managed money could add another layer of selling pressure, particularly given the sizeable existing long position. Soybean meal also carries significant positioning risk. With managed money holding a record net-long position, even a relatively modest change in sentiment could create substantial additional volatility. A combination of accelerating harvest, producer selling and continued speculative liquidation would therefore represent the principal downside risk. Soybean Price Outlook The immediate price outlook remains sensitive to the balance between strong export commitments and increasing harvest availability. The market has already absorbed substantial speculative long liquidation, but the current positioning data indicate that additional selling could occur if prices remain technically weak. The key question for the coming sessions is whether strong export demand can offset the seasonal increase in physical supply. A sustained improvement in export shipments would strengthen the fundamental case for the market, while rapid harvest progress combined with additional speculative liquidation would keep pressure on nearby futures. Supply Outlook US soybean supply is moving into the market as harvest progresses. The coming weather window could allow producers to make meaningful progress across much of the growing region. Increased harvest activity should improve the flow of physical beans to elevators and processors. The immediate supply outlook therefore remains seasonally bearish, although the impact on futures will depend on the pace of producer selling and the ability of export demand to absorb new supplies. Demand Outlook Demand remains one of the strongest fundamental elements of the soybean market. Export commitments of 22.236 million metric tons, up approximately 89% year-on-year, indicate a substantially stronger early sales position than last year. The next stage will be determining how quickly these commitments translate into actual shipments. Soybean meal demand and soybean oil economics will also remain important because changes in crush margins can influence processor demand for raw soybeans. Louis Roche Analysis The soybean market is currently caught between two very different forces. On one side, the export picture is exceptionally strong. Commitments are running well ahead of last year's level and above the normal seasonal sales pace, providing evidence that international demand is supporting the underlying balance. On the other side, the market is entering the period when physical availability increases rapidly. If weather allows harvest activity to accelerate, the additional supply could create short-term pressure even while the longer-term demand picture remains constructive. The speculative structure is also important. Managed money has already reduced its soybean net-long exposure by almost 24,000 contracts, which indicates that part of the recent weakness has been positioning-driven. However, the remaining long position is still substantial. Soybean meal presents a different risk. Managed money has expanded its net long to a record 207,416 contracts. Such positioning can support prices while momentum remains positive, but it also means the meal market could experience increased volatility if sentiment changes. In my view, the next phase of the soybean market will depend heavily on whether exceptional export demand can absorb the seasonal increase in US supplies. Harvest progress and export shipment data should therefore be watched closely alongside managed-money positioning. Coming Sessions The market will focus on: US harvest progress and weather conditions. Producer selling and regional cash-market behaviour. Export shipment performance relative to existing commitments. China and broader global soybean demand. Managed-money positioning in soybeans and soybean meal. Soybean oil strength and broader vegetable-oil markets. Crush margins and processor demand. Changes in the US dollar and broader agricultural commodity sentiment. Currency Hedger View For businesses with soybean-related international exposure, the current market highlights the importance of monitoring both commodity prices and currency movements. Strong US soybean export commitments are supportive of underlying demand, but seasonal harvest pressure and speculative liquidation can create substantial short-term price fluctuations. Currency Hedger provides businesses with tools to manage foreign-exchange exposure while monitoring the macroeconomic and market factors that can influence international commodity transactions. Open a Currency Hedger account:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Visit Currency Hedger:https://currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Contributor Louis Roche – Today Markets / Currency Hedger This article is provided for informational and market-analysis purposes only. It does not constitute investment, trading, financial or commodity advice. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results.

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October 3, 2026

Wheat Market Remains Under Pressure as Export Pace Lags and Speculative Shorts Increase

The wheat complex remains under pressure as weak US export demand and sizeable speculative positioning weigh on the market, while potential reductions in Ukrainian wheat acreage provide a longer-term supply consideration. Chicago SRW wheat is holding relatively firm on the latest session, but the broader weekly tone remains weaker. Kansas City HRW wheat is showing greater pressure, while Minneapolis spring wheat is mixed. The market is now balancing slow US export commitments against potentially tighter future production in parts of the Black Sea region. Market Snapshot ContractPriceLatest MoveDec 2026 CBOT Wheat$6.83+¼¢Mar 2027 CBOT Wheat$6.9675-¼¢Dec 2026 KC HRW Wheat$7.3525-2¼¢Mar 2027 KC HRW Wheat$7.48-3¢Dec 2026 Minneapolis Wheat$6.98+1¼¢Mar 2027 Minneapolis Wheat$7.1725-¾¢ Wheat Complex Remains Mixed The wheat market is showing different levels of pressure across the three major US futures classes. Chicago SRW wheat is proving relatively resilient, with the December contract settling at $6.83 and March 2027 at $6.9675. Kansas City HRW wheat remains weaker, with December at $7.3525 and March at $7.48. Minneapolis spring wheat is mixed, with December at $6.98 and March at $7.1725. Despite the mixed daily performance, all three markets remain under pressure over the broader weekly horizon. December Chicago wheat has fallen 20¼ cents for the week, while December KC wheat has declined 26¾ cents and December Minneapolis wheat has lost 15½ cents. The divergence between daily price action and the wider weekly trend suggests the market is attempting to stabilise after a period of significant selling. US Export Demand Remains the Key Fundamental Concern USDA export data remains one of the clearest bearish signals for US wheat. Total US wheat export sales have reached approximately 9.737 MMT, which is 31% below the comparable period last year. The current figure represents approximately 46% of the USDA's projected annual export total, compared with a historical average pace of around 56%. That gap is significant. For the market to establish a more durable recovery, export demand will likely need to accelerate. Otherwise, traders may continue to focus on the potential for larger available supplies and increased competition from major exporting regions. The next series of export sales reports will therefore remain important for determining whether the current discount in wheat futures is attracting additional international demand. Managed Money Increases Chicago Wheat Shorts Speculative positioning continues to weigh on Chicago wheat. CFTC data shows managed money adding 8,526 contracts to its net-short position in Chicago wheat futures and options, bringing the position to 21,670 contracts as of September 29. This represents a meaningful bearish position. The increase in short exposure can reinforce downward momentum while the market remains under pressure. However, it also creates the possibility of short-covering if export demand improves or a supply-side disruption changes the fundamental outlook. Chicago wheat therefore remains particularly sensitive to any unexpected improvement in fundamentals. Kansas City Wheat Positioning Also Shifts Managed money has also reduced its bullish exposure in Kansas City wheat. Traders cut 11,033 contracts from their net-long position, leaving managed money net long 30,710 contracts as of September 29. Although the position remains net long, the sharp reduction indicates that speculative traders have become more cautious toward hard red winter wheat. The combination of weaker prices and reduced speculative exposure means Kansas City wheat will need stronger fundamental confirmation to regain upward momentum. Ukraine Adds a Longer-Term Supply Consideration Ukraine is introducing an important longer-term supply variable. The country's agriculture minister has indicated that Ukrainian wheat acreage could decline by approximately 17% for the 2027 crop because of accumulated supplies. A reduction of that magnitude could eventually limit Ukrainian production potential and alter the country's export capacity. However, the immediate market impact is likely to be limited because existing inventories and export availability remain more important for the current balance sheet. The acreage outlook becomes more relevant as traders begin looking beyond the current marketing year and assess future Black Sea supply. Black Sea Competition Remains Important US wheat continues to compete with wheat from major exporters including Russia and Ukraine. The current weakness in US export commitments suggests that international buyers have not yet shifted sufficient demand toward US-origin wheat. Competitive pricing from the Black Sea region remains an important consideration for US exporters. Any deterioration in Black Sea production, export logistics or geopolitical conditions could change that competitive relationship rapidly. For now, however, the US export pace remains a significant challenge for the wheat market. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario would require evidence that current low prices are beginning to stimulate international demand. An acceleration in US export sales could force traders to reassess the current bearish positioning. Weather problems affecting major exporting regions could also quickly alter the balance. The potential reduction in Ukrainian wheat acreage provides an additional longer-term supportive factor, particularly if it is followed by lower production or reduced export availability. Short-covering could become an important source of buying if these developments occur while speculative short positions remain elevated. Bearish Scenario The primary downside risk remains the weak US export pace. If sales continue to run significantly below both last year's level and the historical seasonal pace, the market could remain under pressure. The large Chicago managed-money short position adds another bearish component. Continued competition from Black Sea exporters, combined with adequate global wheat availability, could limit the ability of US futures to sustain a recovery. If prices fail to attract meaningful export demand at current levels, traders could continue to price a comfortable supply environment into futures. Wheat Price Outlook Wheat is currently attempting to stabilise following substantial weekly losses. Chicago December wheat around $6.83 is an important near-term reference point, while the March contract remains just below $7. Kansas City wheat continues to trade at a premium to Chicago, reflecting the different characteristics of the hard red winter wheat market, while Minneapolis wheat remains supported by its spring wheat fundamentals. The immediate direction is likely to depend on whether the market receives confirmation that lower prices are improving US export competitiveness. Without stronger demand, rallies could continue to face selling pressure. Supply Outlook The current supply outlook remains relatively comfortable for the US market, but longer-term risks are beginning to emerge. The potential 17% reduction in Ukrainian wheat acreage for 2027 could eventually tighten Black Sea supply. Weather remains another variable, particularly as the market moves through the next production cycle. For now, however, the availability of wheat from major exporters remains sufficient to keep competition high in international markets. Demand Outlook Demand is the most important missing component of the current bullish argument. US export commitments at 9.737 MMT are substantially below last year's pace and are running at only 46% of the USDA projection compared with a 56% historical average. That means the market needs a meaningful improvement in export activity. Lower futures prices can eventually stimulate demand, but traders will need evidence of that response through the weekly sales data. Louis Roche Analysis The wheat market is currently being driven more by demand weakness than by a lack of production potential. The most important figure in the current market is the US export pace. With commitments 31% below last year and running at 46% of the USDA projection compared with a 56% historical average, there is still a substantial gap that needs to be closed. Until that happens, rallies are likely to face resistance from the underlying export fundamentals. The speculative positioning reinforces this view. Managed money has increased its Chicago wheat net-short position to 21,670 contracts, while also reducing its Kansas City net-long exposure by more than 11,000 contracts. However, this positioning also creates an important market risk. A large short position can become fuel for a recovery if the fundamental picture changes. If US export sales suddenly accelerate, or if a major exporting region experiences a significant production or logistical problem, traders could be forced to cover short positions. Ukraine is particularly interesting from a longer-term perspective. A potential 17% reduction in wheat acreage for 2027 could eventually reduce production and export availability, but I would not treat that as an immediate tightening of the current market. Existing stocks and current export flows remain much more important for near-term pricing. The key issue is therefore whether the market can generate new demand at current price levels. If lower prices begin attracting additional international buyers, the current speculative short position could help accelerate a recovery. If export sales remain weak, the market has little fundamental reason to sustain a significant rally. My focus would therefore remain on the next export-sales figures, Black Sea competition and changes in managed-money positioning. Louis Roche – Today Markets / Currency Hedger Coming Sessions Wheat traders are likely to focus on: US export sales: whether demand begins to close the significant gap with last year's pace. Managed-money positioning: whether Chicago shorts continue to increase or begin covering. Kansas City positioning: whether the remaining net-long position is maintained. Ukraine: developments surrounding the potential reduction in 2027 wheat acreage. Black Sea competition: export pricing and availability from Russia and Ukraine. Global weather: emerging risks to the next production cycle. The wheat market remains under pressure, but the combination of low prices and sizeable speculative short exposure means the market could become increasingly sensitive to any meaningful improvement in export demand or deterioration in global supply expectations. Currency Hedger View Wheat is traded internationally in US dollars, making exchange rates an important component of global competitiveness. A weaker US dollar can improve the purchasing power of international wheat buyers and potentially increase the competitiveness of US-origin wheat against supplies from other exporting nations. For grain exporters, importers, processors and other businesses with international wheat exposure, movements in the commodity price and the underlying currency can therefore affect the effective value of transactions. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess their international currency exposure as market conditions evolve. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets, Currency Hedger and TodayMarkets.ae. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice.

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October 3, 2026

Cattle Futures Weaken as Feeder Prices Lead the Downside and Beef Values Turn Mixed

Cattle futures are facing renewed selling pressure as feeder cattle lead the downside and traders balance softer futures against firm cash cattle prices. Live cattle remain supported by cash trade around elevated levels, while wholesale beef values are mixed and slaughter numbers remain below the comparable level from last year. Managed-money positioning also remains significant, with speculative traders adding to their net-long exposure in both live cattle and feeder cattle. This leaves positioning as an important factor for the market as traders assess whether current cash fundamentals can continue supporting futures prices. Market Snapshot MarketPriceChangeOct 2026 Live Cattle$218.850-$0.450Dec 2026 Live Cattle$221.475-$1.700Feb 2027 Live Cattle$223.150-$2.300Oct 2026 Feeder Cattle$334.625-$4.250Nov 2026 Feeder Cattle$331.150-$5.200Jan 2027 Feeder Cattle$324.550-$5.150CME Feeder Cattle Index$336.84-$2.13 Live Cattle Pull Back as Futures Give Back Recent Strength Live cattle futures are under pressure after contracts moved lower across the board. October live cattle settled at $218.850, while December finished at $221.475 and February 2027 at $223.150. Despite the latest weakness, cash cattle markets remain firm. USDA-reported trade has included dressed sales around $348-$350 in the North, with live sales reported around $220-$222 and Southern sales at approximately $226. This creates an important divergence between futures and the physical market. The ability of cash prices to remain elevated will be important for determining whether the current futures weakness represents a broader change in fundamentals or simply a period of profit-taking and repositioning. Feeder Cattle Lead the Downside Feeder cattle are showing greater weakness than live cattle. October feeder cattle settled at $334.625, down $4.25, while November fell $5.20 to $331.150. January 2027 declined $5.15 to $324.550. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is currently at $336.84, down $2.13. The weakness in feeder cattle is important because feeder prices reflect both expectations for future finished cattle values and the cost of replacing feedlot inventories. Higher feeder prices can increase feedlot breakeven levels, while a decline can ease some of the cost pressure facing cattle feeders. Cash Cattle Remains a Key Support Cash trade remains one of the most important areas to monitor. Reported dressed trade in the North has been around $348-$350, while live trade has been reported around $220-$222 and Southern sales around $226. The relatively firm cash market provides fundamental support beneath live cattle futures. The question for the coming sessions is whether cash prices can continue holding these levels while futures remain under pressure. If cash trade remains firm, the current futures discount could attract renewed buying interest. If cash prices begin moving lower, the market could face a more substantial adjustment. Managed Money Maintains a Large Net-Long Position CFTC positioning remains an important part of the cattle outlook. Managed money added 4,321 contracts to its net-long position in live cattle futures and options during the week ending September 29, taking the position to 51,304 contracts. In feeder cattle, managed money added 729 contracts, bringing its net-long position to 7,638 contracts. The increase in speculative exposure provides evidence of continued bullish positioning, but it also means that the market remains sensitive to changes in momentum. If prices recover, the existing long position can support buying interest. If fundamentals weaken, the size of the position creates potential for additional selling as traders reduce exposure. Boxed Beef Market Turns Mixed Wholesale boxed beef prices are providing a mixed signal. The Friday afternoon report showed Choice boxed beef at $374.19, down $2.60, while Select increased $1.60 to $354.49. The Choice-Select spread therefore remains an important indicator for beef demand and carcass value. The decline in Choice values introduces some caution, particularly if it develops into a sustained trend. However, the increase in Select values indicates that demand across the wholesale market is not uniformly weakening. Traders will be watching subsequent boxed beef reports for evidence of whether the recent weakness in Choice values is temporary or becoming more persistent. Slaughter Remains Below Last Year USDA estimates federally inspected cattle slaughter at approximately 548,000 head for the week. That represents an increase of 64,000 head from the previous week, but remains 19,960 head below the comparable week last year. The year-on-year reduction in slaughter remains significant because lower processing levels can restrict beef availability. However, the increase from the previous week shows that slaughter activity is moving higher on a sequential basis. The market will need to assess whether slaughter continues to increase while maintaining a meaningful year-on-year deficit. Bullish Scenario The constructive scenario for cattle remains centred on firm cash prices, restricted slaughter and continued demand for beef. If cash cattle remain near current levels while slaughter stays below last year's pace, the supply of market-ready cattle available to packers could remain relatively constrained. A recovery in Choice boxed beef values would add another supportive signal. In futures, continued speculative interest could reinforce a recovery if traders determine that the recent decline has gone too far relative to physical market fundamentals. Bearish Scenario The main downside risk is that futures weakness begins to spread into the cash market. If cash cattle prices decline, while Choice boxed beef values continue weakening and slaughter increases, the market could begin pricing a less supportive fundamental environment. Feeder cattle present another risk. Continued weakness in feeder futures could indicate that traders are reassessing future feedlot economics and finished cattle values. The large managed-money net-long position is also relevant because a significant reduction in speculative exposure could accelerate a futures decline. Cattle Price Outlook The cattle market is currently caught between strong cash prices and weaker futures. Live cattle futures remain above $218 in the October contract, while deferred contracts continue to carry higher nominal prices. At the same time, feeder cattle have experienced a more aggressive decline. The relationship between cash cattle and futures will therefore be critical. A stable cash market combined with improving boxed beef values could allow futures to stabilise. Conversely, a weakening cash market would increase the risk of a deeper futures correction. Supply Outlook The supply picture remains relatively supportive, with federally inspected slaughter running below the comparable level last year. However, weekly slaughter has increased significantly from the previous week, indicating that processing activity is recovering. Feeder cattle availability and replacement costs will also remain important. The decline in feeder futures could reduce some pressure on feedlot input costs, although the wider profitability picture depends on the relationship between feeder prices, feed costs and finished cattle values. Demand Outlook Beef demand remains mixed rather than uniformly weak. Choice boxed beef has declined while Select values have increased, suggesting different levels of demand across quality grades. The coming reports will provide a clearer indication of whether wholesale demand is maintaining enough strength to support current cash cattle values. Retail demand, foodservice activity and export demand will remain important components of the broader demand picture. Louis Roche Analysis The cattle market is currently showing a clear tension between firm physical prices and weaker futures. The cash market remains the strongest supportive feature. Reported live sales around $220-$222, with Southern trade around $226, indicate that the physical market has not yet followed the futures decline lower. That distinction matters. If cash cattle continue to hold these levels, the recent futures weakness could represent a correction rather than a fundamental breakdown. However, if cash prices begin to soften, the market would have a much stronger reason to reassess current valuations. The slaughter data also deserves attention. Weekly federally inspected slaughter has increased substantially from the previous week, but remains below the comparable period last year. That suggests the supply pipeline is still relatively constrained even as processing activity improves. Feeder cattle are where I see the most immediate change in market tone. The decline of more than $5 in some deferred feeder contracts indicates that traders are becoming more cautious about forward cattle economics. At the same time, managed money has increased its net-long exposure in both live cattle and feeder cattle. With live cattle managed money net long at 51,304 contracts, positioning is substantial. This can support the market when momentum turns higher, but it can also increase volatility if traders begin reducing exposure. The next important confirmation will come from the interaction between cash cattle, boxed beef and slaughter. If cash prices remain firm and Choice beef values stabilise, the current futures decline could attract buyers. If Choice values continue falling while slaughter rises and cash trade weakens, the bearish signal would become considerably stronger. For now, I would view the cattle market as a market in transition rather than one with a confirmed fundamental reversal. The physical market still provides support, but the futures market is clearly demanding stronger confirmation from beef demand and cash trade. Louis Roche – Today Markets / Currency Hedger Coming Sessions Cattle traders are likely to focus on: Cash cattle: whether live and dressed prices remain near current levels. Boxed beef: whether Choice values stabilise following the recent decline. Slaughter: whether processing levels continue recovering while remaining below last year's pace. Feeder cattle: whether the recent sharp decline continues or begins to attract buying interest. CFTC positioning: whether managed money maintains or reduces its substantial net-long exposure. Feedlot economics: the relationship between feeder prices, feed costs and finished cattle values. The immediate outlook remains dependent on whether strong cash fundamentals can offset the weakness developing across futures, particularly in feeder cattle. Currency Hedger View Cattle is primarily a US-dollar-denominated commodity, making currency conditions relevant to international beef trade and the purchasing power of overseas buyers. Changes in the US dollar can influence the competitiveness of US beef exports, while currency movements in major importing markets can affect the effective cost of US-origin products. For businesses exposed to international beef transactions, currency risk can therefore sit alongside commodity-price risk and materially affect margins and transaction values. Currency Hedger monitors foreign exchange markets alongside broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions, helping businesses assess and manage their international currency exposure. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets, Currency Hedger and TodayMarkets.ae. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice.

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October 3, 2026

Sugar Prices Surge as Weather Risks and Global Deficit Expectations Tighten the Outlook

Sugar prices are gaining significant momentum as weather risks across the major producing regions combine with increasingly constructive expectations for the global supply balance. New York world sugar #11 is trading at its highest level for the nearest futures contract in around 1½ years, while London white sugar has also strengthened sharply. Fund buying is adding momentum as traders assess the potential impact of adverse weather on production in Brazil, India and Thailand. The developing 2026/27 supply outlook is becoming particularly important. While the 2025/26 season is expected to retain a global surplus, several forecasts now point toward a deficit in 2026/27, creating a fundamentally different backdrop for the market. Market Snapshot MarketLatest MoveMarket SignalMarch 2027 NY Sugar #11+0.99+5.23%December 2026 London White Sugar #5+24.20+4.77%2025/26 ISO Global Balance+1.1 MMT surplusCurrent surplus2026/27 ISO Global Balance-200,000 MT deficitEmerging deficit2026/27 USDA Global Production184.854 MMT-6.5% y/y2026/27 USDA Consumption179.991 MMT+0.4% y/y Sugar Market Gains Momentum Sugar prices are responding to a combination of weather uncertainty, changing production expectations and increased fund participation. The latest rally has pushed New York sugar #11 to its highest nearest-futures level in approximately 1½ years, while London white sugar has reached a 2½-week high. The strength is significant because the market is beginning to price the possibility that the supply outlook for the coming season could become substantially tighter. Rain expected across Brazil's Center-South sugar-producing region could disrupt cane harvesting and crushing activity over the coming week. Any prolonged disruption would potentially reduce the volume of sugar reaching the market during a period when traders are already becoming increasingly focused on global supply risks. Brazil Remains Central to the Outlook Brazil remains the world's largest sugar producer and a critical influence on international prices. Recent production data has already highlighted concerns about the country's output. Unica reported that Center-South sugar production fell 26.3% year over year to 3.903 MMT in June. The next phase of the Brazilian harvest will therefore be closely watched. Weather is particularly important because excessive rainfall can slow cane harvesting and milling, while the broader shift in weather patterns associated with El Niño could influence production expectations beyond the immediate harvest period. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service currently expects Brazilian 2026/27 sugar production to fall 3.0% year over year to 42.5 MMT. Global Deficit Expectations Strengthen The global balance sheet is becoming one of the strongest arguments supporting higher sugar prices. The International Sugar Organization expects the 2025/26 season to produce a global surplus of approximately 1.1 MMT. However, its 2026/27 outlook shifts toward a deficit of approximately 200,000 MT, with global production forecast to decline by around 1% to 180.1 MMT. Other market estimates are even more restrictive. Covrig Analytics has moved from expecting a surplus to forecasting a 300,000 MT deficit for 2026/27. StoneX has also increased its projected global deficit to approximately 1.7 MMT. These estimates demonstrate that there is increasing uncertainty around the size of the next global sugar balance. Thailand Production Risks Increase Thailand is another important source of supply risk. Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected that 2026/27 Thai sugar production could decline by approximately 17% year over year to 10 MMT. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, meaning a significant production decline could have an outsized effect on international availability. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service is also forecasting a substantial decline, with Thai production expected at approximately 9.5 MMT for 2026/27, down around 15.6% year over year. This creates an increasingly important supply-side risk for the global market. India Faces Weather Pressure India's production outlook is also being affected by weather conditions. India's cumulative monsoon rainfall for June through September was reported at 12.6% below normal as of September 30, representing the weakest monsoon performance in approximately 11 years. India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country, making rainfall conditions particularly important for the country's cane crop. The potential tightening of Indian supply is also reflected in government policy. India has allowed up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes until October 31. This is notable because India is normally a major sugar exporter and has historically imported significant quantities only during periods of tighter domestic supply. The import decision provides another indication that domestic supply conditions remain an important consideration. El Niño Creates Additional Supply Risk The developing El Niño pattern is becoming a major focus for sugar traders. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Potential changes in rainfall patterns across Brazil, India and Thailand could create additional uncertainty for global sugar production. The timing and severity of any weather disruption will remain critical. Sugar prices can respond rapidly to changes in production expectations because relatively small changes in global output can materially alter the balance between supply and consumption. 2025/26 Surplus Versus 2026/27 Deficit The contrast between the two seasons is becoming increasingly important. The ISO expects 2025/26 global sugar production to reach a record 182 MMT, representing growth of approximately 3.5% year over year, while the global market is expected to maintain a surplus of around 1.1 MMT. However, the outlook changes significantly for 2026/27. The ISO expects production to decline to approximately 180.1 MMT and the global balance to move into a 200,000 MT deficit. The USDA is also forecasting lower global production for 2026/27, although its projected production level of 184.854 MMT remains higher than the ISO estimate. This difference between major forecasts highlights the degree of uncertainty surrounding the next production cycle. Global Demand Remains Firm Demand is providing an additional layer of support. The USDA expects global human sugar consumption to increase approximately 0.4% year over year in 2026/27 to a record 179.991 MMT. Although demand growth is relatively modest, consumption is reaching another record level while production is expected to decline. That combination increases the market's sensitivity to weather-related supply disruptions. Ethanol Demand Adds Another Variable The relationship between sugar and energy markets remains important, particularly in Brazil. Czarnikow has forecast a 2.9 MMT global sugar deficit for 2027/28 and expects Brazilian mills to allocate more cane toward ethanol production rather than sugar. The recent strength in crude oil prices has the potential to improve the economics of ethanol production and influence the sugar-versus-ethanol allocation decision at Brazilian mills. This creates an additional connection between energy markets and the sugar supply balance. If energy prices remain sufficiently supportive, Brazilian producers could have greater incentive to direct cane toward ethanol, potentially reducing the quantity available for sugar production. Bullish Scenario The bullish case for sugar is increasingly centred on a combination of weather disruption and a tightening global balance. If excessive rainfall disrupts Brazil's Center-South crushing activity while dry conditions associated with El Niño reduce production prospects in India and Thailand, global availability could tighten faster than currently expected. A decline in Thai production, weak Indian rainfall and stronger ethanol economics in Brazil could reinforce the supply-side pressure. Fund buying could also amplify the move if traders increasingly price a 2026/27 deficit into futures. Bearish Scenario The principal downside risk is that weather concerns fail to translate into a material reduction in global production. The 2025/26 season is still expected to produce a surplus, and the USDA's 2026/27 projections remain considerably less restrictive than some private-sector estimates. India's production could also recover if subsequent weather conditions improve, while Brazilian production could prove more resilient than current expectations. A sustained decline in crude oil prices could reduce the incentive for Brazilian mills to favour ethanol over sugar, potentially increasing sugar availability. Sugar Price Outlook The short-term outlook has become increasingly constructive as weather risks and deficit expectations attract additional buying. However, the market is moving ahead of some of the underlying production data, meaning volatility is likely to remain elevated. The key issue is whether the current weather concerns develop into measurable production losses. If Brazil's harvest is disrupted and the El Niño pattern causes significant deterioration in production prospects across India and Thailand, the market could continue repricing the 2026/27 supply balance. If production proves more resilient, some of the weather premium currently entering prices could subsequently unwind. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming tighter for 2026/27, but considerable uncertainty remains. Brazilian production is forecast lower, Thailand is expected to experience a substantial decline and India's weather conditions have created additional uncertainty. The major question is whether these individual supply pressures combine to produce a global deficit materially larger than the current ISO projection. The difference between forecasts ranging from a relatively small deficit to a substantially larger shortfall highlights how dependent the outlook remains on weather and producer decisions. Demand Outlook Global consumption continues to provide a stable underlying foundation. USDA forecasts indicate record global human consumption of almost 180 MMT in 2026/27. Demand growth is not exceptionally strong, but with production expected to decline, even modest consumption increases can contribute to a tightening balance. Ethanol demand is another important variable, particularly in Brazil, where the allocation of cane between sugar and ethanol can materially affect global export availability. Louis Roche Analysis Sugar is moving into a market environment where weather is increasingly becoming the price-setting variable. The latest rally is not simply a reaction to one production number. It reflects a growing reassessment of the 2026/27 global balance. The most important development is the shift in expectations from a comfortable surplus toward a potential deficit. The ISO's move from a 1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26 to a 200,000 MT deficit for 2026/27 provides a clear indication of how quickly the fundamental picture could change. What makes the current situation particularly important is that several supply risks are occurring simultaneously. Brazil faces rainfall-related harvesting risks. Thailand is facing expectations of a significant production decline. India has experienced a substantially weaker monsoon than normal, while the developing El Niño pattern introduces additional uncertainty across all three major producing regions. However, I would distinguish between a tightening outlook and a confirmed shortage. The 2025/26 market still has a projected surplus, and the USDA's 2026/27 production forecast remains considerably higher than some of the more bearish private estimates. That means the market still needs confirmation that weather problems will translate into permanent production losses. The other factor I would watch closely is Brazil's ethanol economics. If crude oil remains supportive, Brazilian mills have a greater incentive to allocate cane toward ethanol. That could remove additional sugar from the export market and make the global balance tighter than current production forecasts suggest. For me, the next phase of the sugar market is therefore about confirmation rather than simply chasing the latest price move. If Brazil's weather disrupts crushing, India's production outlook deteriorates further and Thailand confirms a significant decline, the market could continue to build a weather premium. If those risks fade and production remains closer to current USDA expectations, some of the recent premium could come back out of prices. The combination of the global balance, El Niño, Brazilian ethanol economics and fund positioning makes sugar one of the markets where developments outside the futures market itself could have a substantial influence on the next major price move. Louis Roche – Today Markets / Currency Hedger Coming Sessions Sugar traders are likely to focus on several key developments: Brazilian weather: whether rainfall disrupts Center-South cane harvesting and crushing. El Niño: whether the developing weather pattern produces measurable risks to production in Brazil, India and Thailand. India's crop: whether below-normal monsoon conditions translate into lower production expectations. Thailand: whether the projected production decline becomes more firmly reflected in global supply estimates. Crude oil: changes in energy prices could influence Brazil's sugar-versus-ethanol allocation. Global balance forecasts: revisions from the ISO, USDA and private analysts will remain important. Fund positioning: whether speculative buying continues following the latest price surge. The sugar market is increasingly focused on the possibility that a surplus environment could transition into a deficit in 2026/27. Until production estimates become clearer, weather developments are likely to remain one of the most important drivers of price volatility. Currency Hedger View Sugar is a globally traded commodity, making currency markets an important part of the international supply and demand equation. The US dollar influences the purchasing power of buyers outside the United States, while movements in producer currencies can affect the economics of exports from major producing countries such as Brazil, India and Thailand. For businesses buying or selling sugar internationally, commodity price movements and exchange-rate movements can therefore interact to create significant changes in the effective cost or value of a transaction. Currency Hedger monitors currency markets alongside the broader macroeconomic and commodity environment, helping businesses assess their international currency exposure as market conditions evolve. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets, Currency Hedger and TodayMarkets.ae. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice.

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October 3, 2026

Cotton Futures Firm as Positioning, Export Pace and Macro Markets Shape the Outlook

Cotton futures are showing renewed strength as the market attempts to recover from recent weakness, with contracts moving higher while traders assess speculative positioning, export commitments, certified stocks and the wider influence of crude oil and the US dollar. The latest move has provided some support across the futures curve, although the broader market remains sensitive to the pace of US export demand and the ability of current commitments to close the gap with the normal seasonal pace. Market Snapshot ContractPriceChangeOct 2026 Cotton75.15¢/lb+112 pointsDec 2026 Cotton78.88¢/lb+112 pointsMar 2027 Cotton81.54¢/lb+93 pointsCotlook A Index89.15¢/lb-30 pointsAdjusted World Price65.16¢/lb-93 pointsICE Certified Stocks28,017 balesUnchanged Cotton Futures Recover as Buying Interest Returns Cotton futures are finding support across the forward curve, with the nearby contract at 75.15 cents per pound and December cotton at 78.88 cents. The December contract remains under pressure on the broader weekly horizon, but the latest strength suggests that buyers are beginning to respond to lower price levels. March 2027 cotton is trading at 81.54 cents, maintaining a premium over the December contract and indicating that the forward market continues to price a different balance between near-term availability and future supply and demand. The key question for the market is whether the latest recovery can develop into a sustained move higher or whether selling interest will return as prices approach recent resistance areas. Speculative Positioning Remains Important The latest Commitment of Traders data shows speculative traders reducing their large net-long exposure. Speculative traders trimmed their net-long cotton position by 7,017 contracts for the week ending September 29, leaving the position at 74,593 contracts. That remains a substantial net-long position, meaning speculative exposure continues to provide an important source of potential selling pressure if market momentum deteriorates. At the same time, the reduction in the position does not necessarily signal a fundamental deterioration in cotton demand. It indicates that speculative participants have already reduced part of their exposure, while the remaining net-long position leaves the market sensitive to changes in price momentum, export demand and macroeconomic conditions. US Export Commitments Need to Accelerate USDA export data remains one of the most important fundamental factors for the cotton market. Total US cotton export commitments currently stand at approximately 4.937 million running bales, 17% above the comparable period last year. The headline growth is constructive, but the seasonal pace requires closer attention. Current commitments represent around 43% of the USDA export projection, compared with an average pace of approximately 51%. This leaves the market with a gap to close. If export commitments accelerate during the coming weeks, the current discount in cotton futures could attract additional buying interest as traders reassess the potential for stronger demand to tighten the projected balance sheet. Conversely, if commitments continue to run below the normal seasonal pace, the market could remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Certified Stocks Remain a Market Focus ICE certified cotton stocks are currently unchanged at 28,017 bales. The relatively limited level of certified stocks remains an important factor for the futures market, although certified inventories represent only one component of the wider physical cotton supply. The market will therefore continue watching inventory flows alongside export demand, domestic consumption and the progression of the US crop. Global Cotton Pricing Remains Mixed The Cotlook A Index is currently at 89.15 cents per pound, while the Adjusted World Price has moved down to 65.16 cents. The relationship between US futures, international physical cotton values and the Adjusted World Price will remain important for export competitiveness. A sustained improvement in international demand could provide additional support to US futures, particularly if the dollar remains relatively soft. However, weaker global economic activity or renewed currency strength could limit the ability of cotton prices to extend gains. Crude Oil and the US Dollar Add a Macro Dimension The broader macroeconomic environment remains relevant for cotton. Crude oil has moved lower, with prices declining by $1.61 per barrel in the latest market move. Lower energy prices can reduce some input-cost pressure for producers, while also reflecting changing expectations around global economic activity and energy demand. The US dollar index has also moved lower, declining by 0.203. A softer dollar can improve the international competitiveness of US agricultural exports because US commodities become relatively cheaper for overseas buyers when measured in local currencies. For cotton, therefore, continued dollar weakness could become an additional supportive factor if it is accompanied by improving export demand. Bullish Scenario Cotton's constructive scenario is increasingly dependent on demand confirmation. A sustained improvement in US export commitments, continued weakness in the US dollar and stable international cotton demand could allow futures to build on the recent recovery. If speculative traders begin rebuilding some of the net-long exposure that was recently reduced, additional buying pressure could develop. The forward structure also remains important. March cotton at 81.54 cents maintains a premium to December, suggesting that the market continues to assign value to later-season supply. Bearish Scenario The principal downside risk remains the pace of export demand. If US export commitments fail to close the gap with the historical seasonal pace, traders could question whether the current USDA export projection can be achieved without a significant acceleration in demand. The remaining speculative net-long position also represents potential selling exposure if prices lose momentum. A stronger US dollar would add another headwind by reducing the competitiveness of US cotton exports, while weaker global economic activity could place additional pressure on textile demand. Cotton Price Outlook The immediate outlook remains dependent on whether the latest strength develops into a broader recovery. The market is currently balancing improving price momentum against a still-questionable export pace. December cotton around 78.88 cents remains an important reference point, while the March 2027 contract at 81.54 cents provides a useful indication of how the market is valuing forward supply. A sustained move above recent resistance would strengthen the recovery narrative, while a failure to maintain current gains could bring renewed attention to the downside. The next significant directional signal is likely to come from the interaction between export demand, speculative positioning and the US dollar. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains closely linked to the development of the US crop and the pace at which physical cotton moves into export channels. Certified stocks remain relatively contained, but the wider supply picture will depend on production levels, crop quality, domestic mill demand and international availability. Weather developments and crop conditions will remain important variables as traders refine expectations for available supply. Demand Outlook Demand remains the critical factor for the next phase of the cotton market. US export commitments are ahead of last year's level, which is encouraging, but the current 43% pace against a 51% historical average indicates that additional demand will be needed to strengthen the fundamental outlook. Improving textile activity, stronger international buying and a weaker dollar could all help close that gap. Louis Roche Analysis The cotton market is entering a phase where the distinction between a short-term price recovery and a broader fundamental change is becoming increasingly important. The latest gains across the futures curve show that buyers are willing to step into the market at current levels, but the export data still requires caution. The fact that US commitments are 17% above last year's level is constructive, yet running at 43% of the USDA projection versus a 51% historical pace means the market still needs stronger forward demand to justify a more durable recovery. The reduction in speculative net-long exposure is also significant. With 74,593 contracts still net long after a reduction of 7,017 contracts, speculative positioning remains large enough to influence price direction. If demand improves, those traders could become a source of renewed buying. If demand disappoints, the remaining position creates potential selling pressure. The currency side is also becoming increasingly relevant. A softer US dollar provides a potentially supportive backdrop for US cotton exports, particularly if overseas buyers respond to improved purchasing power. However, currency support alone is unlikely to overcome a persistent shortfall in the seasonal export pace. My view is that cotton is currently at a confirmation point rather than a clear directional breakout. The recent strength has improved the technical tone, but the next leg of the market is likely to depend on whether export commitments begin closing the gap with the historical pace. I would therefore be watching three areas particularly closely: the pace of new US export sales, changes in speculative positioning and the direction of the US dollar. A combination of stronger exports and continued dollar weakness would provide a more supportive fundamental backdrop. Conversely, disappointing demand combined with renewed dollar strength could quickly bring selling pressure back into the market. The forward premium in March 2027 cotton also deserves attention. It indicates that the market is currently placing greater value on forward supply than the December contract, but that structure will need to be supported by actual demand and supply developments as the season progresses. Louis Roche – Today Markets / Currency Hedger Coming Sessions Cotton traders are likely to focus on four key developments: US export commitments: whether demand begins to accelerate toward the historical seasonal pace. Speculative positioning: whether traders continue reducing their net-long exposure or begin rebuilding positions. The US dollar: continued dollar weakness could support US export competitiveness. Futures structure: the relationship between December and March contracts will provide an ongoing signal about forward supply expectations. For now, cotton futures are showing signs of renewed buying interest, but the next sustained move will require confirmation from the underlying demand picture. Currency Hedger View From a currency perspective, the softer US dollar is an important consideration for the cotton market. A weaker dollar can improve the international purchasing power of overseas buyers of US cotton, potentially supporting export competitiveness if the currency move persists. For businesses exposed to cotton-related international transactions, however, currency movements can materially affect the effective cost of physical purchases and the value of future receipts. Currency Hedger monitors the macroeconomic, interest-rate, commodity and currency factors that can influence international exchange rates and helps businesses assess their currency exposure as markets evolve. Open an account with Currency Hedger:Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market analysis prepared for Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice.

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Markets

October 3, 2026

US Jobs Report Shock: Payroll Growth Misses Forecast as Unemployment Rises

The US labour market delivered a significantly weaker employment report in September, with nonfarm payroll growth falling well short of expectations while the unemployment rate increased and wage growth slowed. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September 2026, compared with market expectations for 90,000 and following a downwardly revised increase of 133,000 in August. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, slightly above expectations. The combination of weak payroll growth, softer wage gains and a higher unemployment rate provides a more cautious picture of the US labour market heading into the final quarter of the year. For financial markets, the report is particularly important because weaker employment growth could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path and the direction of US Treasury yields and the dollar. Market Snapshot Market FactorSeptember 2026Previous / ExpectedWhat Traders Are WatchingNonfarm payrolls+29K+133K Aug / +90K expectedLabour-market momentumUnemployment rate4.2%4.1% Aug / 4.1% expectedSigns of labour-market weakeningUnemployed7.11M+78KAvailable labour supplyTotal employment163.15M+406KEmployment growthLabour force170.26M+485KParticipationLabour force participation61.8%61.6%Workforce engagementEmployment-population ratio59.2%HigherEmployment utilisationU-6 unemployment7.6%7.7%Broader labour-market conditionsAverage hourly earnings$37.81+0.1% MoMWage pressureAnnual wage growth3.0%3.1% Aug / 3.2% expectedInflation pressure US Payroll Growth Collapses Below Forecast The headline employment figure was the biggest surprise in the September report. The US economy added just 29,000 jobs, dramatically below the 90,000 expected by markets. August employment was also revised lower to 133,000. The July figure was revised down by 31,000 to a decline of 10,000 jobs. After the latest revisions, employment across July and August combined was 60,000 lower than previously reported. The revisions are important because they suggest that the recent slowdown in employment growth has been more pronounced than earlier estimates indicated. Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2% The unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in September, up from 4.1% in August and slightly above the 4.1% market forecast. The number of unemployed people increased by 78,000 to 7.11 million. However, the increase in unemployment occurred alongside a significant expansion in the labour force. The labour force increased by 485,000 to 170.26 million, while total employment surged by 406,000 to 163.15 million. This means the rise in the unemployment rate was partly driven by more people entering the labour market. Labour Force Participation Increases The labour force participation rate increased to 61.8% from 61.6%. The increase indicates that a larger share of the population was either working or actively looking for work. The employment-to-population ratio also edged higher to 59.2%. This creates an important distinction within the report. While payroll employment growth was extremely weak, the household survey showed a substantial increase in employment and labour-force participation. Traders will therefore be watching whether the stronger household-survey numbers are sustained in coming months. U-6 Unemployment Rate Falls The broader U-6 measure of unemployment, which includes unemployed workers as well as underemployed and marginally attached workers, eased to 7.6% from 7.7%. The decline provides a more positive element within an otherwise soft employment report. It suggests that broader measures of labour-market underutilisation did not deteriorate alongside the rise in the headline unemployment rate. US Wage Growth Slows Sharply Wage growth provided another important signal for markets. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by just 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81 in September. That followed a 0.3% increase in August and was below the market expectation of 0.3%. Annual wage growth also slowed. Average hourly earnings increased 3.0% over the past 12 months, down from 3.1% in August and below the 3.2% expected by markets. The 3.0% annual increase was the slowest since May 2021. Slower Wages Could Ease Inflation Pressure The moderation in wage growth is particularly important for monetary policy. Slower wage gains can reduce some of the underlying pressure on services inflation and household income growth. The latest figures therefore provide the Federal Reserve with another indication that labour-market conditions may be cooling. However, policymakers will need to assess the employment report alongside inflation, consumer spending and broader economic activity before determining the appropriate policy response. Production and Nonsupervisory Worker Pay Average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $32.60. That was stronger than the monthly increase for all private-sector employees but still represents relatively modest wage growth. The broader trend remains one of slower annual wage increases. Employment by Sector The employment gains that did occur were concentrated in a limited number of industries. Health care added 17,000 jobs, including 13,000 in ambulatory health care services and 12,000 in hospitals. Construction employment increased by 11,000. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs, with plastics and rubber products and machinery providing much of the increase. Financial activities recorded a decline of 7,000 jobs. Employment showed little change across a broad range of other industries, including: Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Professional and business services Social assistance Leisure and hospitality Other services Government The breadth of the weakness is notable because relatively few sectors generated significant employment gains. Bullish Sentiment 1. Labour force participation increased Participation rose to 61.8% from 61.6%. 2. Total household employment increased Employment rose by 406,000 in September. 3. U-6 unemployment declined The broader unemployment measure fell to 7.6% from 7.7%. 4. Health care continued to add jobs Health care employment increased by 17,000. 5. Construction and manufacturing remained positive Construction added 11,000 jobs and manufacturing added 9,000. Bearish Sentiment 1. Payroll growth dramatically missed forecasts The economy added only 29,000 jobs against expectations of 90,000. 2. Previous employment figures were revised lower July and August employment was revised down, reducing combined employment growth by 60,000 compared with previous estimates. 3. Unemployment increased The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. 4. Wage growth slowed Annual wage growth fell to 3.0%, the slowest pace since May 2021. 5. Employment gains were narrow Most major industries recorded little change in employment. US Dollar and Fed Outlook The employment report creates a new test for the US dollar and Federal Reserve expectations. The combination of weak payroll growth, a higher unemployment rate and slower wage growth could lead markets to reassess the outlook for US interest rates. Lower expectations for future rate increases could reduce support for the dollar and put downward pressure on Treasury yields. However, the rise in labour-force participation and increase in household employment provide some counterbalancing evidence. The Federal Reserve will therefore have to assess whether the payroll weakness represents a temporary slowdown or a broader deterioration in labour-market conditions. US Employment Outlook: What Traders Are Watching The September report shifts attention toward whether the US labour market is entering a more pronounced cooling phase. Payroll growth of just 29,000 is significantly below the 90,000 forecast, while downward revisions to July and August employment show that previous estimates overstated the strength of job creation. At the same time, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2% and annual wage growth has slowed to 3.0%. The next employment reports will be critical in determining whether September represents an isolated weak month or part of a broader trend. Markets will also be watching inflation data closely because the combination of weaker employment and softer wage growth could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. Economic Outlook The September employment data points to a cooling US labour market, although the picture is not uniformly weak. Payroll employment growth slowed sharply, but household employment increased by 406,000 and labour-force participation rose. The unemployment rate nevertheless increased as more workers entered the labour market. The slowdown in wage growth is another important development. Annual earnings growth of 3.0% is considerably below the recent pace and could reduce some of the inflation pressure associated with a tight labour market. The key question for the economy is whether slower employment growth eventually feeds through to consumer spending and broader economic activity. Demand Outlook The labour market remains critical to the outlook for US consumer demand. Employment growth and wage gains determine household income and therefore influence spending across the economy. If payroll growth remains weak and wage growth continues to slow, household purchasing power could moderate. However, the increase in total household employment and labour-force participation provides evidence that labour-market engagement remains relatively strong. Future consumer spending data will therefore be important in determining how much of the employment slowdown is feeding into the broader economy. Currency Hedger View For businesses exposed to U.S. dollar transactions, the employment report can have a direct impact on currency markets and the effective cost of cross-border payments. Changes in Federal Reserve expectations can quickly influence the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and major currency pairs. Businesses with USD exposure should therefore monitor the relationship between U.S. employment data, wage growth, inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will focus on whether the September labour-market slowdown is confirmed by additional economic data. Traders will be watching: US inflation data US consumer spending Initial jobless claims Continuing jobless claims Further labour-market data Federal Reserve communications US Treasury yields US dollar movements Wage growth Consumer confidence Business activity indicators A continued moderation in employment and wages could increase attention on potential changes to the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Stronger economic data, meanwhile, could reduce the significance of the September payroll miss. Today Markets View The September US employment report delivered a clear slowdown in headline payroll growth. The economy added just 29,000 jobs, well below the 90,000 forecast, while July and August employment were revised lower. The combined revisions reduced employment growth for those two months by 60,000 compared with previous estimates. The unemployment rate also increased to 4.2%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%, its weakest pace since May 2021. However, the household survey provided some contrasting signals. Total employment increased by 406,000, the labour force expanded by 485,000 and participation rose to 61.8%. The report therefore points to a labour market that is losing momentum, while still attracting more workers. For financial markets, the key issue will be whether the weakness in payroll growth and wage inflation changes expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The next round of inflation and labour-market data will be critical in determining whether September marks a broader shift in the US employment cycle. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity and commercial transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Energies

October 3, 2026

Heating Oil SLIDES to 1-Month Low as G7 Reserve Release Targets Fuel Prices

US heating oil prices extended their decline below $4.50 per gallon on Friday, reaching their lowest level in one month as traders reacted to plans by G7 nations to consider releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves. French President Emmanuel Macron said the coordinated release is expected to take place over four months, with the initiative aimed at easing fuel costs following pressure from the Trump administration to address tightening energy markets. The announcement has added fresh downward pressure to heating oil prices, although the physical market remains tight. Supply has been constrained by disruptions in the Persian Gulf, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Moscow's extension of diesel-export restrictions through October. At the same time, US Energy Information Administration data showed that U.S. distillate inventories are at their lowest seasonal level on record. The market is therefore balancing the prospect of a significant emergency supply release against historically tight domestic inventories and ongoing international supply disruptions. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingUS heating oilBelow $4.50/galFurther downside after 1-month lowG7 emergency reservesUp to 100M barrels consideredTiming and size of releaseExpected release periodAround four monthsImpact on global fuel supplyUS distillate inventoriesLowest seasonal level on recordPhysical market tightnessRussian diesel exportsRestrictions extended through OctoberPotential easing or further disruptionPersian Gulf supplyDisruptions reportedRisk to global fuel flowsRussian refineriesUkrainian attacks affecting supplyRefinery availabilityGlobal diesel marketTightAdditional supply disruptions Current Heating Oil Price Action US heating oil futures fell below $4.50 per gallon on Friday, extending recent losses and reaching their lowest level in one month. The immediate catalyst was the announcement that G7 nations are considering a coordinated release of emergency oil and diesel reserves. The potential release has reduced some of the market's supply-risk premium. However, the decline in futures prices needs to be considered alongside the unusually tight physical market. U.S. distillate inventories are at their lowest seasonal level on record, while international supply has been affected by disruptions in the Persian Gulf and attacks on Russian refining infrastructure. G7 Emergency Reserve Release in Focus The G7 is considering releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves. French President Emmanuel Macron said the coordinated release is expected to take place over four months. The objective is to increase available supply and reduce pressure on fuel prices. For heating oil traders, the key issue will be how much of the release consists of refined products and how quickly those supplies reach the market. A large and rapid release could ease the current supply deficit. If the release is slower or smaller than expected, the historically low level of U.S. distillate inventories could remain a significant source of price support. US Distillate Inventories at Record Seasonal Low The U.S. physical market remains the most important counterweight to the bearish impact of the planned reserve release. EIA data showed distillate inventories at their lowest seasonal level on record. Distillates include heating oil and diesel, meaning inventory conditions are particularly important as the Northern Hemisphere moves into the colder months. Low inventories leave the market with less of a buffer against unexpected supply disruptions or stronger-than-expected heating demand. The combination of low stocks and geopolitical supply risks means the market could remain highly sensitive to new developments. Persian Gulf Disruptions Supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf have contributed to the tightening of global fuel markets. The region remains critical to international energy flows, meaning any prolonged disruption can quickly affect crude and refined-product availability. For heating oil, the risk is particularly important because global diesel markets are closely interconnected. Any deterioration in the Persian Gulf situation could therefore offset some of the downward pressure created by the planned G7 reserve release. Russian Refinery Disruptions Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have also affected the global refined-product supply outlook. Reduced refinery availability can limit the amount of diesel and other middle distillates reaching international markets. The impact is amplified when inventories are already low. Traders will therefore continue watching Russian refinery operations alongside export flows and domestic fuel requirements. Russia Extends Diesel Export Restrictions Moscow has extended its restrictions on diesel exports through October. The policy limits the amount of Russian diesel reaching international buyers and adds to the existing supply pressure. Russia is a major participant in global refined-product markets, so changes to its export policy can have a significant impact on international diesel and heating-oil balances. Any decision to extend, tighten or partially relax the restrictions could therefore trigger a rapid market reaction. Winter Demand in Focus The approach of the Northern Hemisphere winter adds another important variable. Heating oil demand typically increases as temperatures fall, particularly in regions where oil remains an important heating fuel. With U.S. distillate inventories already at historically low seasonal levels, a period of stronger-than-expected heating demand could place additional pressure on available supplies. Conversely, mild weather would reduce immediate consumption and could give refiners more time to rebuild inventories. Bullish Sentiment 1. US distillate inventories are at a record seasonal low Extremely low inventories leave the market with limited supply buffers. 2. Global refined-product markets remain tight Supply disruptions and export restrictions are limiting international availability. 3. Russian diesel restrictions remain in place Moscow has extended restrictions through October. 4. Refinery disruptions are affecting supply Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have added another source of uncertainty. 5. Winter demand could increase Seasonal heating demand could place additional pressure on distillate inventories. Bearish Sentiment 1. Heating oil has fallen below $4.50 Prices have reached their lowest level in one month. 2. G7 emergency reserves could add substantial supply Up to 100 million barrels could be released over approximately four months. 3. The reserve release is designed to reduce fuel costs Additional supply could reduce some of the current risk premium in heating oil and diesel. 4. Seasonal demand remains uncertain The strength of winter heating demand will depend heavily on weather conditions. 5. Russian export restrictions could eventually ease Any relaxation would increase international diesel availability and potentially pressure prices. Heating Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Heating oil prices are caught between a potentially significant increase in emergency supply and historically tight U.S. inventories. The proposed G7 release is creating immediate downward pressure because it could add substantial volumes to the global oil and diesel market. However, U.S. distillate inventories are already at their lowest seasonal level on record, while Persian Gulf disruptions, Russian refinery attacks and diesel-export restrictions are limiting supply. The next move will therefore depend on the balance between additional emergency barrels and the underlying physical fuel shortage. The timing and composition of the G7 release will be particularly important. Supply Outlook The global heating-oil and diesel supply outlook remains unusually uncertain. The potential G7 reserve release could provide significant additional supply, but existing disruptions are limiting the availability of refined products. Persian Gulf disruptions, attacks on Russian refineries and Moscow's diesel-export restrictions are all contributing to tighter international fuel balances. In the United States, historically low distillate inventories provide little room for further supply disruptions as winter approaches. Demand Outlook Heating demand will become increasingly important as the Northern Hemisphere moves deeper into the winter season. Colder weather would increase consumption of heating oil and other distillates, potentially placing additional pressure on already-low inventories. Milder temperatures would reduce demand and give refiners more time to rebuild stocks. Traders will therefore monitor weather forecasts alongside weekly inventory data and refinery activity. Currency Hedger View For businesses purchasing heating oil, diesel or other energy products internationally, currency movements can materially affect the effective cost of physical transactions. Energy commodities are generally priced in U.S. dollars, meaning changes in exchange rates can increase or reduce the local-currency cost even when the underlying fuel price is unchanged. Businesses exposed to energy purchases should therefore monitor the relationship between heating oil prices, crude markets, the U.S. dollar and international FX movements. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on emergency supply plans, U.S. inventories and international refined-product flows. Traders will be watching: G7 emergency reserve release plans US distillate inventories US heating oil prices Diesel prices Persian Gulf developments Russian refinery operations Russian diesel export restrictions Winter weather forecasts US refinery activity Global crude prices U.S. dollar movements Middle East geopolitical developments A rapid and substantial G7 release could keep heating oil prices under pressure. If the emergency supply arrives slowly while U.S. inventories remain historically low and international disruptions continue, the physical market could remain tight. Today Markets View US heating oil prices have fallen below $4.50 per gallon, reaching a one-month low as traders assess the potential impact of a major G7 emergency reserve release. G7 nations are considering releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves over four months, according to French President Emmanuel Macron. The move is designed to ease fuel costs and increase available supply following pressure to address tightening energy markets. However, the physical market remains vulnerable. U.S. distillate inventories are at their lowest seasonal level on record, while Persian Gulf disruptions, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Russia's diesel-export restrictions are limiting international supply. The key market question is therefore whether the planned emergency release can arrive quickly enough to offset historically low inventories and ongoing supply disruptions. For heating oil, the next major catalysts will be the details of the G7 release, U.S. inventory data, Russian fuel flows and the approach of winter demand. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity and commercial transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 3, 2026

Baltic Dry Index Rebounds as Capesize Rates Rise, but Weekly Loss Deepens

The Baltic Dry Index rose for a second consecutive session on Friday, gaining around 0.3% to 3,148 points as stronger rates for larger bulk carriers provided support. The move higher offered some relief after a difficult week for dry-bulk shipping markets, with the benchmark still recording an 8.1% weekly decline. The capesize segment led Friday's advance, while smaller vessel classes moved lower. The mixed performance highlights the uneven conditions across the global dry-bulk freight market. The capesize index, which tracks vessels typically carrying around 150,000 tonnes of commodities such as iron ore and coal, increased 0.6% to 5,042 points. By contrast, the panamax index fell 0.3% to 2,372 points, while the supramax index declined 0.3% to 1,789 points. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingBaltic Dry Index3,148 points, up 0.3%Whether the rebound can continueWeekly performanceDown 8.1%Overall freight-market momentumCapesize index5,042, up 0.6%Iron ore and coal demandPanamax index2,372, down 0.3%Coal and grain shipmentsSupramax index1,789, down 0.3%Smaller bulk cargo demandDry-bulk marketMixedCommodity flows and vessel demand Current Baltic Dry Index Price Action The Baltic Dry Index gained around 0.3% to 3,148 points on Friday, extending its rebound to a second session. The improvement was driven primarily by the capesize segment, which advanced 0.6%. However, the broader market remains under pressure when viewed across the full week. The benchmark has fallen 8.1% over the past five sessions, indicating that Friday's recovery has so far been insufficient to reverse the wider decline. The divergence between vessel classes will remain important as traders assess whether the recent weakness represents a broad slowdown in dry-bulk demand or more concentrated pressure in specific segments. Capesize Rates Provide Support Capesize rates increased for a second consecutive session, rising 0.6% to 5,042 points. These vessels typically carry around 150,000 tonnes of bulk commodities and are heavily associated with major iron ore and coal routes. Because capesize vessels handle some of the largest commodity cargoes, movements in this segment can have a significant influence on the overall Baltic Dry Index. The latest increase therefore provided the main support for Friday's broader index gain. Panamax Rates Move Lower The panamax index fell 0.3% to 2,372 points. Panamax vessels generally carry around 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of commodities, including coal and grain. The decline indicates that demand conditions remain mixed across the dry-bulk market. Panamax freight rates can be particularly sensitive to agricultural commodity flows and coal shipments, making global grain trade, energy demand and seasonal export activity important factors for the segment. Supramax Index Also Falls The supramax index declined 0.3% to 1,789 points. Supramax vessels generally serve a broader range of smaller dry-bulk cargoes and routes. The decline alongside the weaker panamax index shows that Friday's recovery in the overall Baltic Dry Index was concentrated in larger vessels rather than reflecting a broad-based improvement across the market. Weekly Performance Remains Weak Despite the second consecutive daily increase, the Baltic Dry Index recorded an 8.1% decline for the week. That weekly loss remains the more important indicator of recent market momentum. Friday's recovery could represent stabilisation after the recent decline, but a more sustained improvement would require stronger performance across multiple vessel classes. Traders will therefore be watching whether panamax and supramax rates can also recover in coming sessions. Commodity Demand in Focus Dry-bulk freight rates are closely linked to global commodity movements. Iron ore and coal demand are particularly important for capesize vessels, while grain and coal shipments provide significant demand for panamax capacity. Any change in Chinese industrial activity, global steel production, energy demand or agricultural exports can therefore influence vessel utilisation and freight rates. The latest mixed performance suggests that commodity flows remain uneven across different parts of the market. Bullish Sentiment 1. Baltic Dry Index rises for a second session The benchmark increased around 0.3% to 3,148 points. 2. Capesize rates continue to recover The capesize index gained 0.6% to 5,042 points. 3. Large-vessel demand remains relatively firm Strength in capesize rates provides support to the broader freight benchmark. 4. Commodity shipping remains active Iron ore, coal and grain flows continue to generate demand for dry-bulk vessels. 5. Further stabilisation is possible A continued recovery in capesize rates could help the wider index regain momentum. Bearish Sentiment 1. The index remains down sharply for the week The Baltic Dry Index recorded an 8.1% weekly decline. 2. Panamax rates are falling The panamax index declined 0.3% to 2,372 points. 3. Supramax rates are also under pressure The supramax index fell 0.3% to 1,789 points. 4. Friday's rebound is narrow The overall gain was driven mainly by the capesize segment. 5. Commodity demand remains uneven Different vessel classes are showing different levels of demand, limiting the breadth of the recovery. Baltic Dry Index Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The Baltic Dry Index enters the next trading sessions after a modest two-day recovery, but the wider weekly trend remains negative. The key test will be whether the capesize rebound can continue while panamax and supramax rates stabilise. A broader recovery across vessel classes would provide stronger evidence that dry-bulk freight demand is improving. If smaller vessel rates continue to weaken while capesize rates provide only limited support, the benchmark could remain vulnerable after its 8.1% weekly decline. Supply Outlook The freight market continues to be influenced by the availability and utilisation of dry-bulk vessels. When cargo demand weakens relative to available shipping capacity, freight rates can come under pressure. Conversely, stronger commodity flows can tighten vessel availability and support rates. The recent divergence between vessel classes suggests that capacity and demand conditions are currently varying significantly across different shipping routes and cargo types. Demand Outlook Commodity demand will remain the main driver for dry-bulk freight rates. Capesize demand will be closely linked to iron ore and coal shipments, while panamax and supramax activity will remain sensitive to grain, coal and other bulk commodity flows. Developments in Chinese industrial activity will be particularly important because of the country's major role in global iron ore and coal demand. Agricultural export flows will also influence the smaller vessel segments. Currency Hedger View For businesses involved in international commodity trading and shipping, currency movements can affect the effective cost of freight, cargo purchases and cross-border transactions. Dry-bulk commodities are commonly priced in U.S. dollars, meaning movements in exchange rates can alter the local-currency cost of internationally traded cargoes and associated freight expenses. Businesses exposed to commodity and freight markets should therefore monitor the relationship between shipping rates, commodity prices and foreign-exchange movements. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on vessel rates and global commodity flows. Traders will be watching: Baltic Dry Index Capesize freight rates Panamax freight rates Supramax freight rates Chinese iron ore demand Global coal shipments Grain export activity Steel production Chinese industrial activity Global commodity demand U.S. dollar movements A continued rise in capesize rates combined with stabilisation in panamax and supramax markets would provide broader support for the benchmark. If smaller vessel segments remain under pressure, the Baltic Dry Index could struggle to reverse its recent weekly decline. Today Markets View The Baltic Dry Index rose for a second consecutive session on Friday, gaining around 0.3% to 3,148 points. The recovery was driven by the capesize segment, which increased 0.6% to 5,042 points. However, the broader dry-bulk market remains under pressure, with the benchmark recording an 8.1% decline for the week. Panamax rates fell 0.3% to 2,372 points, while supramax rates declined 0.3% to 1,789 points. The mixed performance shows that Friday's recovery was concentrated in larger vessels rather than representing a broad improvement across the dry-bulk market. The next test will be whether capesize strength can continue and whether panamax and supramax rates begin to stabilise. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity and commercial transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Energies

October 3, 2026

Gasoline SLIDES Below $3.30 as Emergency Reserve Release Eases Fuel Market Pressure

US gasoline futures fell below $3.30 a gallon, retreating further from their highest level in a week as reports of an emergency release of oil and diesel reserves by Group of Seven nations eased some of the immediate pressure on global fuel markets. President Emmanuel Macron said G7 nations had agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves over the next four months in an effort to contain elevated energy prices. The move follows threats from President Donald Trump to impose a diesel export ban, although he acknowledged that such restrictions could also affect gasoline prices. Gasoline prices have already moved lower from recent peaks following the end of the summer driving season, but the underlying fuel market remains relatively tight. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended September 25, while refinery utilisation declined to 92.5%. Meanwhile, Russia extended restrictions on most diesel exports through October, although officials are considering a partial easing if domestic production creates an oversupply. China has also extended restrictions on some oil-product exports, adding another layer of uncertainty to global fuel availability. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingUS gasoline futuresBelow $3.30/galFurther downside after recent peakG7 emergency reserves100M barrels plannedImpact on global fuel supplyUS gasoline inventoriesDown 1.7M barrelsTightness in domestic stocksRefinery utilisation92.5%Refining supplyUS driving seasonFinishedSeasonal demand declineRussian diesel exportsRestrictions extended through OctoberPotential partial easingChina oil-product exportsSome restrictions extendedGlobal fuel availabilityGlobal fuel marketStill relatively tightSupply disruptions and inventories Current Gasoline Price Action US gasoline futures have moved below $3.30 a gallon, extending their retreat from the recent one-week high. The decline comes as the market assesses the potential impact of the proposed G7 emergency reserve release. The end of the summer driving season has also reduced seasonal gasoline demand, providing another source of downward pressure. However, the market remains sensitive to supply developments because U.S. gasoline inventories continue to decline and refinery utilisation has weakened. The result is a market caught between softer seasonal demand and relatively tight physical fuel availability. G7 Emergency Reserve Release in Focus The biggest new development for gasoline markets is the planned release of 100 million barrels of emergency reserves over the next four months. President Macron said the G7 nations had agreed to the release as governments attempt to contain elevated energy prices. Additional supply from strategic reserves could ease some of the immediate pressure on crude and refined-product markets. For gasoline traders, the key question is how quickly the additional barrels reach the market and how much of the supply ultimately affects refined-product availability. The announcement has already contributed to the retreat in gasoline futures. US Gasoline Inventories Fall Despite the recent decline in futures, the U.S. physical market remains relatively tight. EIA data showed gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended September 25. Falling inventories at the end of the summer driving season are important because gasoline demand typically begins to moderate as seasonal travel declines. A continued drawdown would suggest that underlying fuel demand remains significant or that refinery supply is not keeping pace with consumption. Refinery Utilisation Drops U.S. refinery utilisation fell to 92.5%. Lower utilisation can reduce the volume of crude being processed into gasoline and diesel, potentially limiting the pace at which inventories are rebuilt. This creates an important counterweight to the bearish influence of the end of the driving season. If refinery utilisation remains below recent levels while gasoline inventories continue falling, the physical market could remain tighter than futures pricing currently suggests. Summer Driving Season Ends The end of the summer driving season is providing some relief to gasoline markets. Seasonal gasoline consumption typically declines after the peak summer travel period, reducing pressure on refiners and fuel inventories. This seasonal shift is one reason gasoline prices have moved lower from recent highs. However, the market is also entering a period in which refinery maintenance and changing fuel specifications can affect product availability. Traders will therefore continue monitoring inventory data alongside refinery operations. Russia Maintains Diesel Restrictions Russia has extended restrictions on most diesel exports through October. The restrictions are keeping additional fuel supplies away from international markets at a time when global refined-product availability remains sensitive. However, Russia is considering a partial easing if domestic production results in an oversupply. Any relaxation could increase diesel availability and reduce some of the pressure on international fuel markets. The timing and scale of any potential easing will therefore remain important for traders. China Extends Oil-Product Export Restrictions China has also extended its ban on some oil-product exports. Restrictions on exports can keep more refined products within the domestic market and reduce availability for international buyers. This adds another layer of uncertainty to global fuel balances. Together with Russian diesel restrictions and lower U.S. refinery utilisation, the Chinese measures reinforce the importance of monitoring refined-product supply rather than looking only at crude oil prices. Bullish Sentiment 1. US gasoline inventories are falling Inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels in the latest week reported by the EIA. 2. Refinery utilisation has declined Utilisation at 92.5% could limit the pace of new gasoline production. 3. Global fuel markets remain tight Supply restrictions in Russia and China are limiting international refined-product availability. 4. Russian diesel restrictions remain in place Most Russian diesel exports remain restricted through October. 5. Supply disruptions remain a risk Any further disruption to crude or refined-product flows could quickly tighten the market. Bearish Sentiment 1. G7 reserves are being released The planned 100 million-barrel release could add significant supply to global energy markets. 2. The summer driving season has ended Seasonal gasoline demand is beginning to decline. 3. Gasoline futures are already retreating Prices have fallen below $3.30 a gallon after reaching a recent one-week high. 4. Russia could partially ease diesel restrictions A relaxation of export controls could increase international fuel availability. 5. Additional supply could pressure prices If emergency reserves reach the market quickly, the additional barrels could reduce some of the recent supply tightness. Gasoline Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Gasoline futures are facing competing forces as the market moves into the post-summer driving period. The planned G7 emergency reserve release is creating an immediate bearish influence by signalling additional crude and refined-product supply. At the same time, U.S. gasoline inventories are falling and refinery utilisation has declined to 92.5%. The global fuel market is also dealing with Russian diesel restrictions and Chinese oil-product export controls. The next move will therefore depend on whether additional emergency supply can offset declining inventories and ongoing international restrictions. The speed of the G7 reserve release, U.S. inventory data and refinery utilisation will be particularly important. Supply Outlook The global refined-product supply outlook remains mixed. The G7 reserve release could increase available energy supplies over the coming months, while potential easing of Russian diesel restrictions could provide additional fuel to international markets. However, U.S. refinery utilisation has declined and gasoline inventories are falling. Russia and China are also restricting some fuel exports. The balance between these competing supply forces will determine whether the current price retreat develops into a more sustained decline. Demand Outlook Gasoline demand is entering a seasonally weaker period following the end of the summer driving season. That should reduce some of the pressure on U.S. fuel inventories. However, the recent inventory draw suggests that physical demand remains meaningful. Traders will therefore be watching weekly gasoline inventories and implied demand closely for evidence of how quickly consumption is slowing. Currency Hedger View For businesses buying or selling fuel and other internationally traded commodities, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical transactions. Energy prices are primarily denominated in U.S. dollars, meaning changes in exchange rates can materially alter the local-currency cost of gasoline, diesel and crude oil. Businesses exposed to fuel purchases should therefore monitor the relationship between energy prices, the U.S. dollar and international currency movements. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on U.S. inventories, refinery operations and global fuel-supply developments. Traders will be watching: US gasoline inventories US refinery utilisation G7 emergency reserve releases Crude oil prices Diesel prices Russian diesel export restrictions Potential Russian export-policy changes Chinese oil-product export restrictions US gasoline demand Seasonal fuel consumption Global shipping developments U.S. dollar movements A continued decline in gasoline inventories could provide support despite the G7 reserve release. If emergency supplies reach the market quickly while seasonal demand weakens further, gasoline prices could remain under pressure. Today Markets View US gasoline futures have fallen below $3.30 a gallon as traders assess the impact of the planned G7 emergency reserve release and the end of the summer driving season. The proposed release of 100 million barrels over four months could provide significant additional supply and has helped push prices lower. However, the physical fuel market remains relatively tight. U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended September 25, while refinery utilisation declined to 92.5%. Internationally, Russia has extended restrictions on most diesel exports through October, although a partial easing remains possible, while China has extended restrictions on some oil-product exports. The market is therefore balancing weaker seasonal demand and additional emergency supply against falling U.S. inventories and continued restrictions on international fuel flows. The next move will depend heavily on how quickly the additional G7 barrels reach the market and whether U.S. gasoline inventories continue to decline. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity and commercial transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 3, 2026

Week Ahead – October 5: Hormuz, Bond Yields and Central Banks Set to Drive Markets

Global markets enter the week with geopolitical risk, surging government bond yields and a heavy schedule of economic data likely to dominate trading conditions. The US-Iran standoff and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will remain the biggest immediate market focus. Any progress toward reopening the key shipping route or ending the conflict in the Middle East could have significant implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, currencies and global risk sentiment. At the same time, government bond yields will remain firmly in focus after the recent surge across major developed markets. Investors will be watching whether yields stabilise or continue higher, with the direction of rates likely to influence currency markets, equities and commodities. US Markets The U.S. calendar contains several important releases that could provide fresh clues about economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's policy path. The FOMC minutes will be closely watched for additional detail on policymakers' discussions around inflation, economic growth and interest rates. The ISM Services PMI will provide an important update on activity across the services sector, while preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will offer another indication of household confidence and inflation expectations. The key question for markets will be whether the incoming data reinforces expectations for further monetary-policy tightening or provides evidence that economic activity is beginning to slow. Middle East and Strait of Hormuz Geopolitical developments could quickly override scheduled economic data. The standoff between the U.S. and Iran remains central to the outlook, particularly given the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to global energy markets. Any progress toward reopening the shipping route could ease some of the recent pressure on energy prices and reduce concerns about further disruption to global trade. Conversely, renewed escalation could keep oil prices elevated and increase concerns about another wave of inflationary pressure. For markets, the key transmission channels will be oil, inflation, bond yields and the U.S. dollar. Bond Markets Government bonds will remain one of the most important areas to watch after the recent surge in yields. Higher yields can tighten financial conditions, influence currency valuations and increase borrowing costs across the global economy. The U.S. Treasury market will be particularly important, but traders will also monitor European, Japanese and other developed-market bond markets for signs that the recent rise in yields is broadening. A further rise in yields could reinforce dollar strength and put additional pressure on risk-sensitive currencies and equities. Europe European markets will receive several important economic indicators. German factory orders will provide an update on industrial demand in Europe's largest economy, while German trade data will offer further information on the external sector. The Eurozone Producer Price Index will also be closely monitored for evidence of pipeline inflation pressures. With European markets already sensitive to energy prices and geopolitical developments, the combination of inflation data, industrial activity and the Middle East situation could prove particularly important. Japan Japan's economic calendar includes consumer confidence and machine tool orders. Consumer confidence will provide an indication of household sentiment, while machine tool orders offer insight into capital spending and industrial demand. The data will be assessed against the backdrop of a volatile yen and significant moves in global bond yields. Japanese markets will also remain sensitive to movements in U.S.-Japan interest-rate differentials. Australia Australia's consumer confidence data will be released during the week. The indicator will provide a useful snapshot of household sentiment as markets assess the resilience of domestic demand. The Australian dollar will remain sensitive not only to domestic data but also to global risk appetite, commodity prices and movements in U.S. Treasury yields. Canada Canada will release employment and trade data. The labour-market figures will be particularly important for expectations around domestic monetary policy, while trade data will provide an update on the country's external position. The Canadian dollar will also remain exposed to movements in crude oil prices and broader commodity-market sentiment. Mexico and Brazil Inflation will be a key focus in Latin America. Both Mexico and Brazil will release inflation data, giving markets fresh information about domestic price pressures and the outlook for monetary policy. The data could influence expectations for future interest-rate decisions and therefore affect both currencies and local bond markets. Brazil will also remain in focus because of developments surrounding the country's presidential election. India The Reserve Bank of India will announce its monetary-policy decision. Markets will be watching the decision for signals on interest rates, inflation and the central bank's assessment of economic growth. The policy statement and accompanying guidance could be particularly important for the Indian rupee and local bond markets. OPEC The OPEC meeting will remain another major event for energy markets. With oil prices already elevated and geopolitical risks surrounding Middle Eastern supply routes, any discussion around production policy will be closely followed. Oil remains one of the most important cross-asset variables for the week because changes in energy prices can feed directly into inflation expectations, currencies, bond yields and central-bank policy expectations. Brazil's Presidential Election Developments surrounding Brazil's presidential election will remain an additional source of market attention. Investors will be monitoring political developments and their potential implications for fiscal policy, economic policy and Brazilian financial markets. The Brazilian real and domestic government bonds are likely to remain particularly sensitive to changes in political expectations. Key Events This Week Traders will be watching: U.S.-Iran developments Strait of Hormuz developments U.S. FOMC minutes U.S. ISM Services PMI University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Global government bond yields German factory orders German trade data Eurozone PPI Japanese consumer confidence Japanese machine tool orders Australian consumer confidence Canadian employment Canadian trade data Mexico inflation Brazil inflation Reserve Bank of India monetary-policy decision OPEC meeting Brazil presidential election developments Oil prices U.S. dollar movements Markets View The week ahead is likely to be dominated by the interaction between geopolitical risk, energy prices and global interest rates. The US-Iran standoff and any developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the immediate risks for oil and inflation. At the same time, the recent surge in government bond yields means that even relatively routine economic releases could generate significant market reactions if they alter expectations for central-bank policy. The U.S. FOMC minutes, ISM Services PMI and consumer sentiment data will be central to the U.S. outlook, while European, Japanese, Australian and Canadian releases will provide further clues about the health of the global economy. Inflation data from Mexico and Brazil, the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision, the OPEC meeting and developments surrounding Brazil's presidential election add further potential volatility. For currency markets, the key variables will be the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, oil prices, central-bank expectations and global risk sentiment. The biggest moves are likely to come from developments that change expectations around any of these factors. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity and commercial transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying transaction value and the FX component of cross-border payments. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Energies

October 3, 2026

Oil Eases as G7 Plans Reserve Release

Crude oil trimmed losses to trade near $92 a barrel on Friday after reaching a one-month low of $88.06 earlier in the session, as G7 nations announced plans to release crude and diesel reserves to ease surging fuel prices. The G7 will deploy 100 million barrels of reserves over the next four months. G7 leaders also agreed to “refrain from export restrictions on energy and energy products between G7 countries” and called on producers to avoid measures that could exacerbate market tensions, according to their joint statement. Meanwhile, crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf are at or near prewar levels, although volumes remain volatile. On the other hand, the US is reportedly sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, raising concerns over a potential escalation in the months-long conflict and renewed supply risks.

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Energies

October 3, 2026

Brent Volatile Amid Middle East Tensions

Brent crude traded around $102 a barrel on Friday amid reports of additional US military deployments to the Middle East and China’s decision on Thursday to halt fuel exports this month. The US is reportedly sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the region, along with an amphibious force carrying 2,000 Marines, raising concerns over a potential escalation in the months-long conflict. The deployment comes as US President Donald Trump has signaled an intention to resume strikes on Iran after the November midterm elections. Meanwhile, China’s major refiners have suspended most refined fuel exports for October. However, a strong rebound in oil flows from the Persian Gulf has largely offset upward price pressures. Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered close to prewar levels, although uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations continues to cloud the outlook. The G7 have agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of diesel and crude stocks over the next four months.

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Markets

October 2, 2026

Copper SLIDES Toward Weekly Loss as China Demand Weakens and Supply Risks Build

Copper futures steadied around $6.52 per pound on Friday but remained on track for a nearly 3% weekly decline as signs of weakening industrial activity in China, the world's largest copper consumer, weighed on the demand outlook. The metal also came under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, elevated bond yields and rising oil prices, with the risk of an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict increasing concerns over inflation and the potential path for interest rates. Supply developments remained firmly in focus. Chilean copper output could face disruption following a strike at a site owned by Antofagasta Plc, while Panama's government has proposed resuming operations at a major mine in the country. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has so far postponed a decision on potential tariffs on refined copper. Earlier threats of U.S. tariffs on refined metals encouraged traders to redirect shipments toward American warehouses, helping fuel a significant rally in copper prices. The market is now balancing weaker demand signals from China and a stronger dollar against the possibility of renewed supply disruptions and further uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingCopper futuresAround $6.52/lbWeekly direction and demandWeekly performanceNearly 3% lowerStrength of selling pressureChinaSigns of weaker industrial activityPhysical copper demandU.S. dollarStrongerCommodity affordabilityBond yieldsElevatedInterest-rate expectationsOil pricesRisingInflation and rate risksChilean supplyPotential strike disruptionMine outputPanamaGovernment proposes mine restartAdditional supplyU.S. refined copper tariffsDecision postponedTrade flows and inventoriesU.S. copper warehousesPreviously attracted redirected shipmentsDomestic stock levels Current Copper Price Action Copper futures were around $6.52 per pound on Friday, but the market remained on course for a weekly decline of nearly 3%. The weakness reflects growing concerns about industrial demand, particularly in China. Copper is highly sensitive to manufacturing, construction, infrastructure and broader industrial activity, making Chinese economic conditions a major influence on global consumption expectations. The stronger U.S. dollar is adding another layer of pressure by making dollar-priced copper more expensive for international buyers. Elevated bond yields are also weighing on the broader metals complex as traders assess the outlook for interest rates. China Demand Comes Under Pressure Signs of weakening industrial activity in China are becoming an important concern for copper traders. China is the world's largest consumer of copper, meaning changes in manufacturing and industrial demand can have a significant impact on the global balance. If industrial activity slows further, copper consumption could weaken at a time when the market is already dealing with broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Traders will therefore be watching Chinese manufacturing data, construction activity and signs of physical copper demand for evidence of whether the recent weakness is temporary or becoming more persistent. Strong Dollar Adds Pressure The U.S. dollar has provided another headwind for copper. Because copper is priced in dollars, a stronger U.S. currency can increase the effective cost for buyers using other currencies. The move in the dollar has coincided with elevated bond yields, increasing pressure across commodities. The relationship between copper and the dollar will remain important, particularly if expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy continue to shift. Oil Prices Raise Inflation Concerns Rising oil prices are adding to concerns about inflation. The potential for an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict has increased uncertainty around energy supplies and prices. Higher energy costs can complicate the inflation outlook and influence expectations for interest rates. For copper, the combination of rising oil prices, elevated bond yields and a stronger dollar creates a challenging macroeconomic environment. Chilean Supply Faces Disruption Risk Supply concerns are providing some counterweight to the demand weakness. Chilean copper production could be disrupted by a strike at a site owned by Antofagasta Plc. Any sustained interruption could reduce available supply and provide support to copper prices. However, the potential impact will depend on the duration and scale of the disruption and whether lost production can be offset by other producers. Panama Mine Restart Could Increase Supply Panama is moving in the opposite direction, with the government proposing the resumption of operations at a major mine. A restart would potentially add copper supply to the global market. The development is therefore important because it could partially offset disruption risks elsewhere. Traders will be watching the proposed restart and the timeline for any return to production. US Copper Tariff Decision Remains Unresolved The Trump administration has so far postponed a decision on tariffs covering refined copper. The issue remains important because previous threats of U.S. tariffs on refined metals significantly altered physical trade flows. Traders responded to the earlier tariff threats by redirecting copper shipments toward U.S. warehouses. That helped increase American inventories and contributed to the earlier rally in copper prices. A renewed tariff announcement could once again encourage changes in global copper flows. Conversely, further delays could reduce some of the immediate trade-related support that had previously helped prices. Bullish Sentiment 1. Chilean production faces potential disruption A strike at an Antofagasta-owned site could reduce copper availability if the disruption is prolonged. 2. U.S. tariff uncertainty remains A future decision on refined copper tariffs could alter international trade flows and potentially increase demand for metal held in U.S. warehouses. 3. Copper supply remains vulnerable to mine disruptions The potential Chilean strike highlights the sensitivity of global supply to operational disruptions at major mines. 4. Previous U.S. tariff threats supported copper prices Earlier tariff concerns encouraged shipments into U.S. warehouses and contributed to a copper rally. 5. Long-term industrial demand remains important Copper remains closely linked to manufacturing, infrastructure and electrification demand, making future consumption growth an important market factor. Bearish Sentiment 1. Copper is heading for a nearly 3% weekly decline The latest price action shows that selling pressure remains significant. 2. Chinese industrial activity is weakening Signs of softer activity in the world's largest copper-consuming economy are weighing on demand expectations. 3. The U.S. dollar is stronger A stronger dollar increases the effective cost of copper for international buyers. 4. Bond yields remain elevated Higher yields are increasing pressure on non-yielding commodities and reinforcing interest-rate uncertainty. 5. Panama could add supply A proposed restart of a major Panamanian mine could increase global copper availability. Copper Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Copper is entering an important period with demand concerns competing against potential supply disruptions and U.S. trade-policy uncertainty. The nearly 3% weekly decline reflects growing concerns about Chinese industrial activity, while the stronger dollar and elevated bond yields are adding further pressure. The supply side provides some support through the potential strike at an Antofagasta-owned site in Chile. However, a proposed mine restart in Panama could increase available supply and offset some of the disruption risk. The next directional move will depend on whether signs of weaker Chinese demand intensify or whether supply and trade developments provide a counterweight. Supply Outlook The global copper supply outlook remains mixed. Potential disruption at a Chilean operation could reduce production, while the proposed restart of a major Panamanian mine could increase supply. U.S. trade policy is another important variable. Previous tariff threats redirected copper toward American warehouses, demonstrating how quickly trade policy can alter physical flows. Any new tariff decision could therefore affect regional inventories and international premiums. Demand Outlook Demand remains the primary concern for copper prices in the near term. China's industrial activity is showing signs of weakness, creating uncertainty around consumption from the world's largest copper market. Manufacturing, construction and infrastructure activity will remain important indicators. At the same time, broader global economic conditions are being affected by higher energy prices, elevated bond yields and currency movements. A sustained improvement in Chinese industrial demand would provide an important signal for the copper market, while further weakness could increase pressure on prices. Currency Hedger View For businesses buying or selling copper internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. Copper is priced in U.S. dollars, meaning movements in the dollar can materially change the local-currency cost for international buyers even when the underlying copper price remains unchanged. Businesses exposed to copper purchases should therefore monitor the relationship between copper futures, U.S. dollar movements and international commodity demand. The currency component can materially change the effective cost of a physical copper transaction and should be considered alongside the underlying commodity price. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on Chinese demand, mine supply and U.S. trade policy. Traders will be watching: Chinese industrial activity Chinese manufacturing data Physical copper demand U.S. dollar movements U.S. Treasury yields Global oil prices Chilean mine operations The potential Antofagasta strike Panama's proposed mine restart U.S. refined copper tariff policy Copper inventories in U.S. warehouses Broader global manufacturing activity A recovery in Chinese industrial demand or a significant supply disruption could provide support to copper. If Chinese demand remains weak while additional Panamanian supply comes back online, the market could face further pressure. Today Markets View Copper is heading toward a nearly 3% weekly decline as weaker signals from China's industrial sector weigh on the demand outlook. The stronger U.S. dollar, elevated bond yields and rising oil prices are adding further pressure as traders assess inflation risks and the potential implications of an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Supply developments are preventing the market from focusing exclusively on demand. A potential strike at an Antofagasta-owned site in Chile could disrupt production, while Panama's proposal to resume operations at a major mine could increase global availability. U.S. trade policy remains another major variable. Previous threats of tariffs on refined copper redirected shipments toward American warehouses and helped fuel the earlier rally. The next move will therefore depend on the balance between weakening Chinese demand, changing global supply flows and the direction of U.S. trade policy. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling copper internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying copper price and the FX component of cross-border transactions. General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 2, 2026

Palm Oil Set for Second Weekly Drop as Supply, Weak Exports Weigh

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline, lingering below MYR 4,550 per tonne at their lowest level since mid-July. For the week, futures are heading for a second straight weekly loss, down around 3.1% so far. Sentiment was pressured by rising inventories, with August stocks reaching an eight-month high and expected to surpass 3 million tonnes in September. Weak demand further weighed on sentiment, with cargo surveyors estimating a 17.1%-28.8% mom drop in palm oil exports for September. Meanwhile, China’s Dalian markets were closed for a Golden Week holiday, limiting trading cues. Still, losses were tempered by forecasts that palm oil imports by top buyer India will remain steady in the 2026/27 marketing year following an import-duty cut. Lower edible-oil duties ahead of the festive season could also support near-term demand. Elevated crude oil prices offered additional support amid persistent Middle East uncertainty, improving the appeal of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock.

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Markets

October 2, 2026

XAG/USD rises to near $61.40 as US yields retreat, NFP eyed

Silver price gains to near $61.40 as US Treasury Yields retreat from its multi-decade high. Fed’s Logan sees at least half-of-a-percent interest rate hike in the near term. Investors keenly await the US NFP data for September. Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 0.55% to near $61.38 during the late Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal edges up as rally in United States (US) Treasury Yields has hit a pause. 10-Year US Treasury Yields have corrected to near 5.25% from its recent highs of 5.34%, the highest level seen since May 2002. A slight correction in US Treasury yields has improved very-short term appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver. However, the broader trend of US bond yields remains firm as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have signaled more interest rate hikes even after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% in September. Fed’s Logan delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 8.1/10 historical average, underscoring a stronger tightening bias relative to the established baseline. The emphasis that higher yields may reflect increased term premiums, potentially reducing the need for additional tightening, sits in tension with explicit calls for at least 50 bps more in rate hikes and several further moves to ensure inflation returns to 2%, reinforcing a narrative of a still-not-restrictive stance and a strengthening economic expansion that is supportive for the Dollar. Overall, the tone signals a clear willingness to push policy rates higher until price stability is credibly restored. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.68 points to 136.59, confirming a solid move deeper into hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 threshold. This combination of a higher index level and an elevated FXS Speechtracker score points to rising market expectations for further Fed tightening, a backdrop typically constructive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive currencies. On the economic data front, investors keenly await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. According to Bloomberg consensus, nonfarm payrolls to rise by 90,000 in September, down from 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Silver Technical Analysis In the daily chart, XAG/USD holds decisively below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $63.48, keeping the near-term tone bearish as price remains capped by this short-term trend indicator. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.64 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than oversold exhaustion. On the topside, immediate resistance is August 19 low at $62.19, followed by the 20-day EMA at $63.48. Looking down, the psychological level of $60.00 is the key suppory level; below that, the asset could decline towards the August 3 low at $56.57.

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Markets

October 2, 2026

Gold struggles to lure buyers amid bullish USD; eye US NFP for Fed rate cues

Gold remains confined in a range as traders opt to wait for the release of the US NFP report. The USD stands firm near a one-and-a-half-year top, acting as a headwind for the commodity. Oil-driven inflation fears keep US bond yields near multi-year highs, further capping the bullion. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Friday, though the downside remains limited as traders opt to wait for the crucial US employment details before placing fresh directional bets. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added only 90K jobs in September, compared to the previous month's reading of 162K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1%. Furthermore, the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, will be looked upon for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path amid receding October rate hike bets. This, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion. A slew of influential FOMC members recently indicated that they do not see an urgent need for an immediate interest rate hike after the widely expected quarter-point increase at the September meeting. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Thursday that economic activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded for the ninth straight month in September. Additional details of the survey revealed that raw material prices increased for a 24th consecutive month. This comes on top of inflationary concerns stemming from volatile energy prices, which underpin prospects for additional Fed tightening and help limit the overnight pullback in US bond yields from multi-year highs. Apart from this, the US-Iran standoff keeps the USD firm near its highest level since April 2025. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon may soon send a third aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf. Separately, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said several tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would decide very soon whether to blow up Iran and added that the war will end very soon one way or the other. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play and remains supportive of the strong bid tone surrounding the safe-haven Greenback, which might continue to act as a headwind for the Gold. That said, the lack of follow-through selling warrants some caution for XAU/USD bears before positioning for any meaningful depreciation. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis The XAU/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term tone below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the mid-range Fibonacci retracements. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with the line above its signal and a still-constructive histogram. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 hints at a potential pause in the downside rather than a clear bullish reversal. Hence, any positive move beyond the $4,200 mark is more likely to confront immediate resistance near the 61.8% retracement at $4,230. The 50% level at $4,319 forms the next nearby topside barrier ahead of the 200-period SMA at $4,386 and the 38.2% retracement at $4,408. This reinforces a dense supply zone, with the 23.6% retracement at $4,519 marking a more distant cap that would need to be reclaimed to meaningfully challenge the current bearish bias. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at $4,103, ahead of the prior swing low near $3,942.

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Energies

October 2, 2026

WTI Price Forecast: Dips to $91.50 as Middle East jitters limit losses

WTI struggles to capitalize on its recovery gains registered over the past two days. The US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for the commodity and limits deeper losses. The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing directional bets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak and stalling the previous day's recovery from the vicinity of a nearly four-week low. The black liquid currently trades near $91.50, down 0.45% for the day, though the downside seems limited amid the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. In the latest developments, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon may soon send a third aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf. Separately, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said several tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would decide very soon whether to blow up Iran and added that the war will end very soon one way or the other. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play and should act as a tailwind for crude oil prices. From a technical perspective, the black liquid remains capped by the long-term trend structure, with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at $94.08 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $93.28 sitting overhead. This configuration keeps the near-term bias bearish despite a constructive tone in momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in neutral-positive territory near 53, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays above zero with a positive histogram, hinting at only a modest recovery attempt within a broader corrective phase. Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 50.0% retracement at $90.59, followed by the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $87.89, which together define a nearby demand zone before deeper levels at $84.06 and $79.18. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $93.28, ahead of the 100-period SMA at $94.08. A more significant bullish extension would require a break of the 23.6% retracement at $96.60 and ultimately the structural high near $101.99 to challenge the prevailing short-term bearish bias. WTI 4-hour chart

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Markets

October 2, 2026

Soybeans SLIDE Toward 5-Week Low as Record US Crop and Weak China Demand Weigh

Soybean futures fell to around $12.70 per bushel on Friday, approaching a five-week low as harvest pressure from expectations for a record-large U.S. crop continued to weigh on prices. Wet conditions during late summer and early autumn slowed the harvest pace, but the arrival of new-crop supplies is keeping pressure on the market. Harvest was 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average, while 58% of the crop was rated good or excellent. Expectations of weaker August soybean crush also added pressure after processors crushed 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate. Weak Chinese demand remains another headwind. Soybeans were excluded from China's latest U.S. agricultural tariff cuts and remain subject to an additional 10% tariff. Chinese crushers have already covered much of their requirements through early 2027 with South American supplies, while high inventories and weak processing margins are limiting fresh purchases. However, U.S. export demand remains firm. Weekly soybean sales reached 1.03 million tonnes for the 2026/27 marketing year, including 589,400 tonnes to China, providing an important counterweight to the broader bearish supply picture. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingSoybean futuresAround $12.70/buFive-week low and harvest pressureU.S. harvest progress17% completePace of new-crop supplyFive-year harvest average17%Whether harvest acceleratesCrop condition58% good/excellentFinal production potentialAugust soybean crush209.6M bushelsDomestic processing demandWeekly 2026/27 exports1.03M tonnesStrength of export demandChina purchases589,400 tonnesContinued Chinese buyingChina tariff on U.S. soybeansAdditional 10%Competitiveness of U.S. suppliesChinese inventoriesHighNeed for fresh importsSouth American suppliesCovering Chinese needs into early 2027Competition for U.S. exports Current Soybean Price Action Soybean futures declined to around $12.70 per bushel, bringing prices close to a five-week low. The market remains under pressure as the U.S. harvest progresses and new supplies become increasingly available. Although wet conditions slowed harvesting earlier in the season, progress has now reached 17%, matching the five-year average. The combination of a large expected crop and advancing harvest is creating a significant near-term supply headwind. At the same time, weaker-than-expected domestic crush activity and uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand are limiting the ability of strong U.S. export sales to generate sustained upside momentum. US Harvest Pressure Builds The expected size of the U.S. soybean crop remains one of the biggest factors weighing on futures. Harvest was 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average. The pace indicates that the arrival of new supplies is broadly in line with the seasonal norm despite earlier wet weather. The crop was also rated 58% good or excellent, reinforcing expectations for substantial production. As more soybeans move from fields into commercial channels, farmers, elevators and processors face increasing physical availability. That seasonal supply increase can place pressure on futures even when export demand remains relatively strong. Crop Conditions Remain Important The 58% good-or-excellent crop rating remains an important indicator for the final production outlook. A large crop combined with normal harvest progress would increase the amount of soybeans entering the market during the key harvest period. Traders will continue watching yield reports and harvest results to determine whether actual production confirms expectations for a record-large crop. Any evidence of lower-than-expected yields could reduce the supply pressure. Conversely, strong yields would reinforce expectations for ample U.S. soybean availability. August Crush Falls Short of Expectations Domestic processing provided another bearish signal. U.S. processors crushed 209.6 million bushels of soybeans during August, below the average trade estimate. The crush figure matters because domestic processing represents a major source of soybean demand. Lower-than-expected crush activity suggests processors were not absorbing supplies at the pace the market had anticipated. This can increase the amount of attention placed on export demand as traders assess whether total soybean consumption will be strong enough to offset the large crop. China Demand Remains a Major Concern Chinese demand continues to be one of the most closely watched factors in the soybean market. Soybeans were excluded from China's latest U.S. agricultural tariff cuts and remain subject to an additional 10% tariff. The tariff keeps U.S. soybeans at a competitive disadvantage relative to alternative origins. Chinese crushers have also covered much of their needs through early 2027 using South American supplies. With inventories remaining high and processing margins weak, Chinese buyers have less immediate incentive to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans. South American Competition Limits US Export Potential South American soybean supplies are creating additional competition for U.S. exporters. Chinese crushers have secured significant volumes from South America through early 2027, reducing the urgency to make additional purchases from the United States. This creates a difficult environment for U.S. soybeans during the harvest period. Strong export sales can provide support, but sustained Chinese buying will be important if the U.S. market is to absorb the large new crop without continued price pressure. US Export Demand Provides a Counterweight Despite the concerns surrounding China, U.S. export demand remains firm. Weekly soybean sales for the 2026/27 marketing year reached 1.03 million tonnes. China accounted for 589,400 tonnes of those bookings. The sales figure provides evidence that international buyers continue to purchase U.S. soybeans despite tariff and competition concerns. If weekly sales remain around or above the 1-million-tonne level, they could help absorb some of the additional supplies arriving from the U.S. harvest. Bullish Sentiment 1. U.S. export sales remain strong Weekly 2026/27 soybean sales reached 1.03 million tonnes. 2. China remains a significant buyer China accounted for 589,400 tonnes of the latest weekly sales. 3. Harvest progress is not running ahead of normal The U.S. harvest was 17% complete, matching the five-year average. 4. Weather could still affect harvest Further wet conditions could slow the movement of new supplies and temporarily reduce harvest pressure. 5. Strong exports could absorb new-crop supplies Sustained international demand would help offset the impact of a large U.S. crop. Bearish Sentiment 1. Soybeans are approaching a five-week low Prices have fallen toward $12.70 per bushel as harvest pressure increases. 2. The U.S. crop is expected to be record-large Large production expectations are increasing available supply. 3. Chinese demand remains weak High inventories and weak processing margins are limiting fresh purchases. 4. U.S. soybeans remain subject to an additional Chinese tariff The 10% tariff can reduce the competitiveness of U.S. supplies. 5. August crush missed expectations Processors crushed 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate. 6. South American supplies are competitive Chinese crushers have already covered much of their requirements through early 2027 with South American soybeans. Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Soybeans are approaching a five-week low as the market absorbs increasing new-crop supplies. The immediate price outlook will depend on whether export demand can offset the combination of large production expectations, advancing harvest progress and weaker domestic crush activity. The 1.03-million-tonne weekly export figure provides evidence of solid demand, while China's 589,400-tonne share shows that Chinese buyers have not completely withdrawn from the U.S. market. However, high Chinese inventories, weak processing margins and South American competition could limit the pace of future purchases. A sustained increase in U.S. export demand could help stabilize prices during harvest. If sales weaken while production and harvest progress remain strong, additional supply pressure could keep futures near their recent lows. Supply Outlook The U.S. supply outlook remains dominated by expectations for a record-large soybean crop. Harvest progress of 17% is currently in line with the five-year average, meaning new supplies are entering the market at a normal seasonal pace. The 58% good-or-excellent crop rating also points to substantial production potential. The next major supply signals will come from harvest results, reported yields and the pace at which soybeans move into commercial channels. Any significant deviation from expected yields could change the balance between supply availability and demand. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed. U.S. export sales are providing support, with weekly bookings reaching 1.03 million tonnes. However, domestic crush activity was below expectations in August, while Chinese demand remains constrained by high inventories, weak margins and competition from South American supplies. The key question is whether exports can remain strong enough to compensate for weaker domestic processing and slower Chinese buying. The answer will be important for determining whether harvest pressure remains the dominant market force. Currency Hedger View For international soybean traders and physical buyers, the U.S. dollar remains an important part of the demand equation. U.S. soybean prices are ultimately translated into local currencies for overseas buyers. A stronger dollar can reduce purchasing power and make U.S.-origin supplies less competitive, while a softer dollar can improve export competitiveness. Businesses exposed to soybean purchases should therefore monitor the relationship between soybean futures, U.S. dollar movements and international commodity demand. The currency component can materially change the effective cost of a physical soybean transaction even when the underlying futures price remains relatively stable. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on harvest progress, export demand and Chinese buying activity. Traders will be watching: U.S. soybean harvest progress Crop yield reports Weekly U.S. soybean export sales Chinese soybean purchases Chinese soybean inventories South American soybean availability U.S. soybean crush data Soymeal demand Soybean oil demand U.S. dollar movements Weather during the remaining harvest period A continuation of weekly export sales around 1 million tonnes or higher could help offset harvest pressure. If Chinese demand remains weak and domestic crush activity disappoints again, the large U.S. crop could continue to weigh on prices. Today Markets View Soybeans are approaching a five-week low as the U.S. harvest brings additional supplies into the market and expectations for a record-large crop keep pressure on futures. Harvest progress of 17% is currently matching the five-year average, while 58% of the crop is rated good or excellent. Domestic demand has also provided a weaker signal, with August crush at 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate. China remains another major uncertainty. U.S. soybeans remain subject to an additional 10% tariff, while Chinese crushers have already covered much of their requirements through early 2027 with South American supplies. However, U.S. export demand remains firm. Weekly 2026/27 sales reached 1.03 million tonnes, including 589,400 tonnes to China. The next move will therefore depend on whether strong export demand can absorb the incoming U.S. harvest quickly enough to offset the pressure from large production expectations and softer domestic processing. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling soybeans internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying soybean price and the FX component of cross-border transactions. General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Energies

October 2, 2026

European Gas Prices SLIDE Below €73 as LNG Supplies Rise but Winter Risks Loom

European natural gas prices fell below €73/MWh on Friday, giving back part of their recent gains as softer Asian LNG demand and higher U.S. supplies provided some relief to the European market. U.S. LNG exports rose to 10.9 million tonnes in September, with Europe receiving 5.91 million tonnes, or 54% of total shipments, as buyers continued refilling inventories ahead of winter. Meanwhile, weaker Chinese LNG demand could free up additional cargoes for Europe, easing competition for spot supplies. However, the European gas market remains vulnerable. EU gas storage is around 71% full, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany's inventories are just above 57%. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy's Edison until December, while some Qatar-linked LNG vessels have resumed transits through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. With European storage still below its seasonal average, the market remains exposed to supply disruptions. The prospect of renewed U.S. military action against Iran has also raised concerns about potential disruption to energy flows through the strategically important shipping route. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingEuropean natural gasBelow €73/MWhStorage and winter demandU.S. LNG exports10.9M tonnes in SeptemberGlobal LNG availabilityU.S. LNG to Europe5.91M tonnes / 54% of exportsEuropean import demandEU gas storageAround 71% fullGap versus seasonal averageFive-year EU storage average87%Winter preparednessGerman gas storageJust above 57%Regional supply securityChinese LNG demandWeakerAvailability of additional cargoesQatarEnergy deliveriesForce majeure extended to December for EdisonItalian supply risksStrait of HormuzSome Qatar-linked vessels have resumed transitShipping disruption risk Current European Gas Price Action European natural gas prices slipped below €73/MWh on Friday, paring recent gains as improving global LNG availability eased some of the immediate supply pressure. Higher U.S. LNG exports and softer Asian demand are creating the possibility of additional cargoes being directed toward Europe. However, the decline remains constrained by relatively low European storage levels and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The market is therefore balancing improving near-term supply availability against the potential for stronger winter demand and renewed disruption risks. U.S. LNG Supplies Provide Relief U.S. LNG exports rose to 10.9 million tonnes in September, highlighting the importance of American production to the global gas market. Europe received approximately 5.91 million tonnes, accounting for 54% of total U.S. LNG shipments. The substantial European share is helping buyers replenish inventories ahead of winter. Continued strong U.S. LNG exports could provide additional flexibility for European buyers and reduce pressure on regional spot prices. However, the amount of U.S. LNG available to Europe will continue to depend on global demand, shipping economics and competition from Asian buyers. Weaker Chinese Demand Could Free Up Cargoes Weaker Chinese LNG demand is another factor easing pressure on the European market. If Chinese buyers require fewer spot cargoes, additional LNG supplies could become available for European destinations. This is important because Europe and Asia compete for flexible LNG cargoes. Reduced Asian demand can therefore improve European supply availability without requiring a significant increase in European domestic production. However, this balance can change quickly if Chinese demand strengthens or weather conditions increase LNG consumption across Asia. European Storage Remains Well Below Average Despite stronger LNG inflows, Europe's storage position remains a key concern. EU gas storage is around 71% full compared with a five-year seasonal average of 87%. Germany's inventories are just above 57%. The gap leaves Europe with a smaller storage buffer heading into the winter period. If temperatures fall sharply or heating demand exceeds expectations, European buyers may need to withdraw gas more rapidly and compete for additional LNG supplies. That could quickly reverse some of the recent downward pressure on prices. Winter Demand Becomes the Key Test The European gas market is moving toward a period in which weather and heating demand will become increasingly important. Higher consumption could accelerate withdrawals from storage and increase Europe's dependence on imported LNG. Milder weather would reduce withdrawals and give buyers more time to rebuild inventories. With storage currently below its five-year average, the weather outlook could therefore have an outsized influence on prices over the coming sessions. Qatar Supply Risks Remain QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy's Edison until December. The development highlights continuing uncertainty around some LNG supply arrangements. At the same time, some Qatar-linked LNG vessels have resumed transits through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. That provides some relief to the market, but the shipping route remains strategically important to global energy flows. Any renewed disruption could increase competition for alternative LNG supplies and place upward pressure on European prices. Strait of Hormuz Adds Geopolitical Risk The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical shipping route for global energy markets. Any disruption could affect LNG and other energy shipments, forcing buyers to compete for alternative supplies. The risk is particularly relevant for Europe because storage levels remain below the five-year seasonal average. The prospect of renewed U.S. military action against Iran has therefore added another layer of uncertainty to the European gas outlook. A disruption to shipping could quickly tighten global LNG availability and reverse the recent price decline. Bullish Sentiment 1. European storage remains below average EU gas storage is around 71% full compared with a five-year seasonal average of 87%. 2. German inventories remain relatively low Germany's storage level is just above 57%, leaving the country's winter supply position closely watched. 3. Geopolitical risks remain elevated Potential disruption involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could affect global LNG flows. 4. Qatar supply uncertainty continues QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy's Edison until December. 5. Winter demand could increase withdrawals Colder weather could accelerate storage withdrawals and increase European demand for imported gas. Bearish Sentiment 1. Prices have fallen below €73/MWh The latest decline indicates that near-term supply conditions have improved. 2. U.S. LNG exports remain strong September exports reached 10.9 million tonnes, increasing global LNG availability. 3. Europe is receiving substantial U.S. LNG European destinations accounted for 54% of U.S. LNG shipments in September. 4. Chinese LNG demand is weaker Lower Chinese demand could free additional cargoes for European buyers. 5. Greater LNG availability could ease competition If U.S. exports remain strong while Asian demand stays subdued, European buyers could face less competition for spot cargoes. European Gas Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching European gas prices are being pulled between improving LNG availability and persistent supply risks. The move below €73/MWh reflects some relief from higher U.S. exports and weaker Chinese demand. However, Europe's storage position remains below the five-year seasonal average, leaving the market sensitive to weather and supply disruptions. A continued increase in LNG availability combined with subdued Asian demand could keep prices under pressure. Conversely, colder weather, stronger Asian demand or disruption to LNG shipping could tighten the market quickly. The next directional move will therefore depend on whether additional LNG supplies can offset Europe's relatively low storage buffer as winter approaches. Supply Outlook The European supply outlook has improved as U.S. LNG exports remain strong and weaker Asian demand could make additional cargoes available. The United States exported 10.9 million tonnes of LNG in September, with Europe receiving approximately 5.91 million tonnes. That flow is helping European buyers replenish inventories. However, Qatar-related supply uncertainty and geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain significant variables. Europe therefore has access to substantial LNG supplies, but the relatively low storage position leaves less room for disruption. Demand Outlook Winter demand will be one of the most important factors for European gas prices. With EU storage around 71% full compared with a five-year average of 87%, stronger heating demand could increase withdrawal rates quickly. Chinese LNG demand is another important variable. If Chinese consumption remains subdued, more flexible cargoes could be directed toward Europe. If Asian demand strengthens at the same time that European winter consumption rises, competition for LNG could intensify. Currency Hedger View For international businesses buying or selling natural gas, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. European gas prices are typically quoted in euros, while international businesses may have revenues, costs or financing exposure in other currencies. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying gas price and the FX component of cross-border transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on European storage, LNG flows, weather and geopolitical developments. Traders will be watching: EU gas storage levels German storage levels U.S. LNG exports European LNG arrivals Chinese LNG demand Asian spot LNG prices QatarEnergy deliveries Strait of Hormuz shipping activity European weather forecasts Winter heating demand Developments involving Iran Continued strong LNG availability and subdued Asian demand could keep European gas prices under pressure. If geopolitical tensions disrupt shipping or colder weather increases European consumption, the market could quickly refocus on the region's below-average storage buffer. Today Markets View European natural gas prices have fallen below €73/MWh as higher U.S. LNG exports and weaker Chinese demand provide some relief to the European market. The United States exported 10.9 million tonnes of LNG in September, with Europe receiving 5.91 million tonnes, highlighting the importance of U.S. supply to the European balance. However, the region remains exposed to supply risks. EU storage is around 71% full against a five-year seasonal average of 87%, while Germany's inventories are just above 57%. QatarEnergy's extended force majeure and uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz add further risk as Europe approaches the winter demand period. The next move will therefore depend on whether additional LNG supplies can continue to offset the combination of below-average storage and potential geopolitical disruptions. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling natural gas internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying gas price and the FX component of cross-border transactions. General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 2, 2026

Palladium Slides to 1-Year Low

Palladium futures fell to around $1,170 per ounce, reaching a one-year low as a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields increased pressure on the precious metal. Investors are awaiting U.S. payrolls data for further clues on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path, while the dollar climbed to a 17-month high and 10-year Treasury yields reached their highest level since 2002. The combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar has created a difficult environment for dollar-priced metals. Palladium is also facing longer-term pressure from expectations of weaker automotive demand, declining gasoline-vehicle production and a potential shift toward a market surplus as recycling increases. Lower mine output, particularly from Russia, could provide some supply-side support. However, increased recycling is expected to offset part of the production decline. Palladium is down approximately 28.40% year to date. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingPalladium futuresAround $1,170/ozAbility to stabilize after 1-year lowYear-to-date performanceDown 28.40%Extent of continued downsideU.S. dollar17-month highImpact on dollar-priced metals10-year Treasury yieldHighest since 2002Federal Reserve expectationsU.S. payrollsAwaitedPotential impact on Fed rate pathAutomotive demandExpected to weakenGasoline-vehicle productionRecyclingIncreasingPotential additional supplyMine productionExpected to declineRussia and other producersMarket balanceSurplus risks increasingSupply versus automotive demand Current Palladium Price Action Palladium futures declined to approximately $1,170 per ounce, marking a one-year low. The latest move extends a substantial decline that has left palladium approximately 28.40% lower year to date. The immediate pressure is coming from financial-market conditions as well as the metal's underlying demand outlook. A stronger U.S. dollar makes palladium more expensive for buyers using other currencies, while higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not generate interest. The market is therefore dealing with both macroeconomic and fundamental headwinds. Strong Dollar Adds Pressure to Palladium The U.S. dollar climbed to a 17-month high, creating an additional obstacle for dollar-denominated commodities. Because palladium is priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger dollar can increase the effective cost for international buyers when converted into local currencies. That can reduce demand at the margin and contribute to downward pressure on prices. The dollar's strength is also closely linked to expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Investors are now awaiting U.S. payrolls data for additional evidence about the direction of interest rates. A stronger-than-expected labor-market reading could influence expectations for a tighter monetary-policy environment, while weaker employment data could alter expectations for the Fed's future rate path. Treasury Yields Reach Multi-Year High U.S. Treasury yields are another major factor affecting palladium. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since 2002, increasing the relative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets compared with commodities that do not generate a yield. Higher yields can therefore create a more difficult environment for precious metals. For palladium, this pressure is particularly important because the market is simultaneously dealing with weaker automotive-demand expectations and concerns about a future surplus. Automotive Demand Remains a Structural Concern Palladium's longer-term demand outlook remains closely tied to the automotive industry. The metal has historically been heavily used in catalytic converters for gasoline-powered vehicles. Expectations for declining gasoline-vehicle production therefore represent an important structural headwind. A reduction in the number of gasoline-powered vehicles requiring palladium could reduce automotive demand over time. The shift in the global vehicle mix is consequently becoming increasingly important for palladium traders, particularly as manufacturers continue to adjust production strategies across gasoline, hybrid and electric vehicles. Recycling Adds to Available Supply Higher recycling activity is another factor weighing on the market balance. Used automotive catalytic converters can provide a secondary source of palladium supply. As recycling volumes increase, additional metal can return to the market even when mine production is declining. This creates an important offset to lower primary production. The key question for prices is therefore how quickly recycled supply increases relative to the decline in mine output and the pace of automotive demand. Supply Outlook Provides Some Support Lower mine production could limit the extent of further downside. Russia remains particularly important to the palladium supply picture, and lower output there could reduce available primary supply. A decline in mine production creates a potential counterweight to weakening demand. However, the effect may be partly offset by higher recycling. The market is therefore shifting toward a balance in which traders are assessing not simply total mine production, but the combined contribution from primary production and recycled metal. Bullish Sentiment 1. Mine production is expected to decline Lower primary palladium output could reduce available supply and provide a fundamental floor for prices. 2. Russian supply remains important Lower production from Russia could tighten the physical market if declines are larger than expected. 3. Palladium has already experienced a substantial decline The metal is down approximately 28.40% year to date, meaning market participants will be watching for signs of stabilization following the extended decline. 4. Supply reductions could eventually offset weaker demand If mine production falls sufficiently, the reduction in primary supply could counterbalance some of the structural decline in automotive consumption. Bearish Sentiment 1. Palladium has reached a one-year low The move toward $1,170 per ounce demonstrates continued downside pressure. 2. The dollar remains strong A 17-month high in the U.S. dollar is making dollar-priced palladium more expensive for overseas buyers. 3. Treasury yields are elevated The 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2002 increases the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets. 4. Automotive demand faces structural pressure Declining gasoline-vehicle production could reduce one of palladium's most important sources of demand. 5. Recycling is increasing Higher recycling could compensate for part of the decline in mine production and contribute to a market surplus. 6. Surplus expectations are weighing on sentiment Expectations of weaker demand combined with additional recycled supply are creating concerns about excess availability. Palladium Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Palladium is approaching an important test after falling to approximately $1,170 per ounce. The immediate direction will depend partly on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with U.S. payrolls data potentially influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path. A stronger dollar and continued elevated yields could maintain pressure on palladium. Conversely, a shift toward lower yields or reduced dollar strength could ease some of the macroeconomic pressure on the metal. The longer-term outlook will depend increasingly on the balance between automotive demand, mine production and recycling. Supply Outlook The palladium supply picture is becoming increasingly divided between declining mine production and rising recycled supply. Lower mine output, particularly from Russia, could provide support by reducing the amount of newly mined metal entering the market. However, higher recycling is expected to offset part of that decline. The resulting balance will depend on how quickly recycled material becomes available and whether mine-production reductions are large enough to compensate for weaker automotive consumption. Demand Outlook Automotive demand remains the central long-term consideration for palladium. Expectations for declining gasoline-vehicle production could reduce demand for catalytic converters and therefore palladium. The transition toward electric vehicles is also changing the structure of the automotive metals market because fully electric vehicles do not require the same catalytic-converter technology as internal-combustion vehicles. Hybrid vehicles and the remaining gasoline-powered fleet will continue to influence demand, but the broader direction of vehicle production remains an important structural consideration. Currency Hedger View For businesses buying or selling palladium internationally, movements in the U.S. dollar can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical transactions. A stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated palladium for overseas buyers, even when the underlying metal price remains unchanged. Companies with exposure to palladium purchases should therefore consider both the commodity price and the currency component of the transaction. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to monitor the FX component of cross-border transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Visit Currency Hedger Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve expectations and developments in the physical palladium market. Traders will be watching: U.S. payrolls data Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations U.S. dollar movements 10-year Treasury yields Global automotive production Gasoline-vehicle demand Russian palladium production Global recycling volumes Evidence of a palladium market surplus A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields could reduce some of the immediate macroeconomic pressure on palladium. If the dollar remains firm while automotive demand weakens and recycling increases, the metal could remain under pressure despite lower mine production. Today Markets View Palladium is facing a combination of short-term macroeconomic pressure and longer-term structural challenges. The metal has fallen to around $1,170 per ounce, its lowest level in a year, with the stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields weighing on dollar-priced and non-yielding assets. At the same time, the underlying supply-demand picture is becoming increasingly important. Expectations for weaker gasoline-vehicle production are creating concerns about automotive demand, while increased recycling could contribute to a market surplus. Lower mine production, particularly from Russia, provides a counterweight, but the extent to which declining primary supply can offset weaker demand and higher recycling remains a key question. The immediate market direction is likely to be influenced by U.S. payrolls data and the resulting impact on Federal Reserve expectations, while the longer-term outlook will depend on the evolving balance between automotive demand, mine supply and recycling. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling palladium internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying palladium price and the FX component of cross-border transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Chart of the Day: JP225, Nikkei Plays Its Own Tune

Key takeaways Nikkei 225 futures rose 1.83 percent driven by strong semiconductor stocks following Micron earnings. European and US indices declined as rising oil prices and interest rate pressures weighed on markets. The Bank of Japan faces less pressure for urgent rate hikes due to the latest Tankan business sentiment survey. Nikkei 225 trades near 68 269 points, sitting between key Fibonacci retracement levels of 67 168 and 68 731. Buyers maintain control while the index holds above 67 168, though a close above 68 731 is needed to confirm strength. Today's session looks very intriguing, although even before the European open it seemed that all indices would play the same tune. Nikkei 225 futures are up 1.83% and are the second strongest instrument among all indices, behind only the European volatility index VSTOXX. At the same time, almost all of Europe is in the red: WIG20 is down 2.01%, IBEX 1.84%, FTSE 100 1.71%, AEX 1.51%, DAX 0.98%. US index futures are giving back earlier gains, with the S&P 500 down slightly and the Dow Jones down 0.56%. Why is Japan rising while the rest is falling? This is composed of three separate stories that happened to coincide in time. Semiconductors are pulling the Nikkei up. This is the main driver of today's movement. The Japanese index has a structurally different composition than European benchmarks. Under price-weighting, a few high-value tech stocks account for a disproportionately large share of the index's move. Advantest, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank Group, and Screen Holdings can single-handedly generate most of the Nikkei's daily movement. When the semiconductor cycle receives a positive impulse (yesterday's Micron earnings), the Japanese index responds much more strongly than the DAX or CAC 40, which practically lack this tech sector. Tankan took the pressure off the Bank of Japan. The quarterly business sentiment survey release weakens the arguments for an urgent rate hike. For the Japanese stock market, this is a directly favorable setup: a weaker yen improves exporters' results, while postponing tightening removes pressure from valuations. This is the exact opposite of what Europe is experiencing, where the ECB returned to rate hikes in September. For October, an 18% probability of a hike is priced in, while December is fully priced in. Europe and the US are paying the bill for oil. Article headlines in today's press explicitly attribute the declines to a renewed rebound in oil prices. December Brent is rising close to 100 USD, and WTI is already above 92 USD. Japan imports virtually all of its energy, so theoretically it should suffer the most, but today the sectoral boost from tech prevailed. Valuations: things are getting uncomfortable The long-term Z-score chart requires attention, as it puts today's move into a broader perspective. With the Nikkei at 68,269 points, it stands 2.5 standard deviations above its five-year moving average of 38,651. The two-year Z-score is 1.7, the one-year is 1.4, and the 75-day is 0.7. The gap between the price and the 5-year moving average is currently around 76%, a degree of stretch unseen in the market's recent history. This is not a sell signal. The Z-score speaks to position relative to history, not direction. However, it implies that any prospective correction has much more room to fall than a short-term chart would suggest, and current levels offer no safety buffer. Significantly, the 75-day Z-score at 0.7 shows that the index is not overbought in the short term. The issue is structural, not tactical. Technical analysis of JP225 on the daily timeframe The JP225 daily chart shows a clear structure following the July peak. The market reached a high of 73,791 in early July before dropping to 60,545 in the first half of August. The current Fibonacci retracement is plotted over this swing, defining all key levels. After the August trough, a bounce ensued toward the 70,956 area, the 78.6% retracement, where supply took over. A September leg down brought the index back to around 62,500, from which the market has been building another rebound, reaching 68,284 today. The current location is key. Price sits right between the 50% retracement at 67,168 and the 61.8% at 68,731. These 500 points above the current price present the first real resistance hurdle. Base scenario. As long as price holds above 67,168, buyers retain the initiative, and the higher-low structure since August remains intact. The market has made two attempts at the 68,500 to 69,000 zone, both rejected, making this third test of the area a decisive moment. What to watch? Today's rally is narrow sectorally and accompanied by rising volatility in other markets. Such a combination often precedes a reversal. Confirmation of strength would be a close above 68,731 alongside a calming of the VIX and VSTOXX. If volatility indices keep rising while the Nikkei fails to sustain current levels, we have a classic bull trap breakout and a move back toward 65,600.

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Banks

October 1, 2026

British Pound: Potential EU re-engagement supports Sterling – ING

Chris Turner at ING discusses the British Pound as EUR/GBP moves noticeably lower, suggesting emerging Euro weakness and a changing UK narrative. He highlights UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech on moving closer to Europe, including a possible push to rejoin the EU after the next election. Turner notes markets would likely view EU re-entry positively and watches for Sterling support into a planned UK‑EU summit. Sterling reacts to EU rejoin debate "EUR/GBP has come noticeably lower this week. One could argue that independent euro weakness is starting to emerge here given that the usual hedge for eurozone political/budgetary risk, EUR/CHF, is being heavily driven by the rate spread story." "Any move by the UK to rejoin the EU would likely be seen as a positive by the foreign exchange market, having witnessed sterling's crash following the Brexit vote in 2016. Obviously, we are years away from any clarity here, but let's see whether sterling catches a bid into a supposed UK-EU summit due around 20 November."

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Banks

October 1, 2026

Bank of Japan cautious on further hikes – Rabobank

Rabobank Research Global Economics & Markets reports that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is reluctant to continue rapid rate hikes, with September meeting notes revealing internal divisions and concerns over weak private consumption. BOJ balances growth and tightening risks "The BOJ doesn’t want to keep raising rates rapidly, the September meeting notes showing some hawks but others pointing to weak private consumption and warning against hasty action, as government representatives urged weighing the cumulative impact of past rate increases." "However, with the latest Tankan survey the most upbeat for large manufacturers since 2018 the Bank may not have a choice – assuming it is the one choosing, not Bessent."

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Banks

October 1, 2026

Brent Oil: Conflict-driven surge shapes bond stress – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that Brent Oil has surged sharply in Q3 as the US–Iran conflict re-escalated, driving a major global bond selloff and higher long-end yields. The report notes fresh gains in Brent and WTI, warns about benchmark roll effects on front contracts, and flags strength further out the futures curve, reinforcing inflation concerns and hawkish central bank risks. Oil rally reinforces inflation pressures "Overall, it was a tricky quarter, as the re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude oil up +42.0% from its lows at the end of June. So that led to a major global bond selloff, with 10yr Treasury yields up for a 7th consecutive month for the first time since 2011." "Even as the PCE data surprised on the downside, there were still other inflationary pressures in the mix yesterday. The main one was higher oil prices once again, with Brent crude (+0.92%) up to $103.53/bbl, though due to the month-end change in the benchmark this will now fall towards $98/bbl so be careful when you now look at the front contracts." "WTI (+1.16%) was up to $90.42/bbl. There wasn’t a single catalyst for that, but the moves came amidst growing scepticism that the US and Iran would reach a deal anytime soon." "Indeed, that concern was clear further out the oil futures curve, with the Brent future for December 2027 up +0.54% to a new high of $81.25/bbl yesterday."

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Banks

October 1, 2026

Mexican Peso: Weakness and USMCA risk repricing – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s research notes that the Mexican Peso (MXN) had a disappointing September, losing over 4% against the Dollar since late month. Standard macro drivers and Banxico policy guidance explain only part of the move, with positioning and renewed USMCA-related concerns likely contributing to a Mexico-specific risk premium, even as analysts expect sentiment and the US Dollar to eventually turn supportive. Mexico-specific risks behind MXN slide "Although yesterday brought some stabilisation, September was a disappointing month overall for the Mexican peso. Since 22 September, it has depreciated by more than 4% against the US dollar." "The combination of a strong US dollar and heightened risk aversion likely accounts for much of the weakness seen in many emerging market currencies. When movements in oil prices and US yields are also factored in, only a relatively small residual effect remains for most currencies." "In the case of the peso, however, this seems insufficient as an explanation; around a third of its weakness since last week is accounted for by the obvious influencing factors.2" "It is also possible that the MXN’s weakness was due to resurgent risks relating to the USMCA negotiations. Last week, the new round of negotiations was postponed." "While we expect current market sentiment towards emerging markets to improve again, which should support the peso, we also anticipate renewed weakness in the US dollar. Nevertheless, our long-held view that the market should not ignore the risks associated with the MXN has been vindicated."

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Banks

October 1, 2026

US Treasuries: Cold War yield parallels – Rabobank

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets notes that US Treasury yields ended Q3 sharply higher, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching levels last seen in 2002. The report highlights concerns from major market commentators about bonds and equities, and warns that another phase shift higher in long-dated US yields could take them into ranges seen during the late Cold War period. Long yields revisit Cold War ranges "Q3 went out with a bang. US Treasury 2-year yields were little changed on the day at 4.89% but 10s spiked 5bps to 5.30% and 30s +6bps to 5.63%, the highest since June 2002." "French 30s were +9bps to 5.46% with Le Spread over Bunds now 152bps. As the Financial Times talks of a “vicious loop” of selling, Bill Gross states, ‘Don't own bonds and be cautious with stocks’, while the Wall Street Journal counters ‘Money Managers are asking clients to give the bond market another chance’." "That’ll arguably be down to how Cold and Hot War things get: another phase shift higher in US 30s and we’d be in the 7.25-8.00% range of the late Cold War period."

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Banks

October 1, 2026

Euro: Political stress and limited FX reaction – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Tatha Ghose examine how Euro political risks, especially in France, Spain and Italy, transmit to EUR/USD and a trade-weighted Euro. Their study since 2010 finds the Euro reacts more when several Euro area countries and banks are under stress, with current French spread widening seen as a historically normal episode. Euro response to multi-country stress "In EUR-USD, an effect can be observed when more euro area countries come under pressure (i.e. the euro depreciates more sharply). If European banking stress is also included as an indicator, fairly significant depreciation - adjusted for macro factors - of 0.73% on a median basis over five trading days becomes apparent." "Nevertheless, it is evident that the euro reacts when several countries are under pressure simultaneously. When only one country is affected, however, it does not seem to have a particularly strong impact on the euro." "Therefore, on closer inspection, it is clear that the euro does react: over the last ten trading days, the adjusted EUR-USD movement has been similar to that seen in June 2024. What we are currently seeing, then, is a normal reaction to crisis-related stress in France." "It is only when the stress spreads to the banks and investors flee to the Swiss franc that the euro is likely to react more strongly. There is little sign of this at present."

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Energies

October 1, 2026

NATGAS falls 1.2%. What about winter?

Key takeaways US natural gas trades below 3.00 USD per MMBtu amid strong oversupply pressure. Mild winter expectations and high inventory levels keep future gas prices flat. Extreme short positioning creates risks of a sudden price rebound if weather turns cold. US gas prices retreat ahead of storage report US natural gas (NATGAS) is down 1.2% today, with its price below the psychological threshold of $3.00/MMBtu. The market is under strong oversupply pressure, and bearish sentiment also dominates in Europe, where supply concerns are mitigated by stable LNG transit and favorable weather. What to expect during the winter season? Gas prices for the upcoming winter are generally very flat compared to subsequent years (very small calendar spreads). This is a direct result of market expectations regarding a relatively mild winter, comfortably high inventory levels, and LNG export capacities that are not large enough to cause local gas availability issues. Estimated prices for spring and summer have fallen sharply, reaching around $2.70–$2.80. US weather forecasts through mid-October point to temperatures close to the multi-year average, eliminating the risk of a sudden spike in heating demand in the near term. Inventories remain above the 5-year average. Source: EIA Higher temperatures are visible in the West (maintaining elevated cooling consumption), while the East shows little prospect of an early start to the heating season. Source: NOAA Today's storage data (EIA): Today's report is expected to show a US gas inventory build of 63 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This is below the 5-year average for this period, which stands at 80 Bcf. Most likely, however, once the heating season fully begins, inventory changes will work in favor of further building supply and reducing the current market surplus. NATGAS technical analysis Gas has fallen into the 2.96 to 3.00 zone, where several key levels converge at once: the 50% retracement of the move from 3.392 to 2.581 (61.8% is at 3.082, while 50% falls near 2.99), the 25-day moving average at 2.956, and the round 3.00 barrier. Sitting at 2.965, the price is positioned right in the middle of this cluster. The past week brought a sharp pullback from the red resistance zone between 3.28 and 3.39, which previously held the market back in May and June. The strong gains earlier were driven by rollover effects and a temporary shutdown of a US pipeline. This marks the third failed attempt on this zone this year, serving as a clear signal of distribution. At the same time, an ascending trendline running from the July low at 2.58 currently passes through the 2.93 area. This leaves the market in a tightening wedge between that trendline and overhead resistance. With RSI perfectly neutral at 50.1, it offers no directional clues. MACD is fading following the September bullish impulse. Key risks: Although the market is fundamentally bearish, speculative positioning (extreme short dominance) creates an asymmetry of risk. A sudden cold snap in the second half of October or unexpected disruptions in global LNG supply chains could trigger aggressive short covering (a so-called short squeeze) and a dynamic price rebound.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Risk Aversion to Start The Month

Pinch, Punch, bond yields surge as FTSE 100 has bruising start to October Stocks are sinking and global bond yields are rising in an ominous start to the quarter for financial markets. The FTSE 100 is lower by 1.7% so far this morning, and the Dax is also lower by more than 1%, as investors pull back from taking risk. The driver appears to be higher oil prices, and the Brent crude oil price is hovering around $100 per barrel this morning. Major milestones reached for global benchmark yields The bond market sell off is gathering pace and the UK 30-year yield is now above 6% for the first time since 1998. The 10-year Treasury yield, the world’s benchmark yield, is at its highest level since 2002. This suggests that globally, the cost of money is increasing, and it could be hard for stocks to continue to rally as we move into Q4. The 3 drivers of the global bond sell off Global bonds sold off more than 2% in September, the most since 2024, after Donald Trump was elected for a second term. Back then, bonds sold off due to Trump’s expected expansionary fiscal policy. Today, bonds are selling off on the back of his foreign policy, as well as his fiscal largess. While bond markets are pricing in stronger growth across the developed world, there is also the realization that there is now a structural premium attached to the oil price and to refined products. This will keep prices elevated for the long term, as it does not appear that a neat diplomatic solution to the war in the Middle East will be reached any time soon. This is playing out in the sovereign bond market, and the sell off in bonds is happening at the same time as the oil price is rising. Brent crude is back above $100 per barrel today, which is a significant psychological level, in the same way, a 6% yield on a 30-year Gilt is also significant. French bonds now the target of vigillantes The bond market is also being whipped around by fiscal concerns, and UK and French bonds are leading the sell off on Thursday. This comes as we lead up to the French Budget plan later today. France will need a tough Budget to placate this bond market. France is projected to have a budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP for this year, and it has a debt to GDP ratio of more than 115%. This compares to the UK, where the budget deficit is projected to be above 4% of GDP, and the debt to GDP ratio is 94%. While the UK is in tricky fiscal waters, as we lead up to next year’s Presidential election, we think that France could become the target of the bond vigilantes. We are already seeing signs of stress in the European bond market, the French-German 10-year yield spread is more than 120bps, and is at its highest level since 2012. The FX impact: a rush to safety The stress in the bond market is playing out in FX. There is a rush to the safety of the dollar and the Swiss franc this morning, while the yen, the euro and the pound all sell off alongside sovereign bonds. For now, GBP/USD is trading within the $1.32- $1.33 range, but there is a risk that this pair breaches the $1.32 level if the bond sell off gets worse in the coming days. The question now is, when will the bond market sell off come to an end? Bond markets are facing a triple threat of big government spending, strong growth and structurally higher energy prices, which could keep the pressure on bonds for some time. The harbour in the storm There is only one harbour in this storm: tech. The tech sector was the only sector to rally in the US equity space on Wednesday. Equity futures in the US are predicting a lower open for the Dow Jones and the Russell, which are both sensitive to bond yields. In contrast, Nasdaq futures are pointing to a higher open, after memory chip maker Micron reported stellar results and strong forward guidance for future revenues. The company said that it expects revenue to hit $61.5bn, and that is has demand visibility out to 2028, with 75% of 2027 shipments already committed. Micron’s results suggest that the AI trade remains in strong health, and is likely to be resilient to the bond market sell off. If the bond market is to recover any time soon, a weaker payrolls report on Friday will be needed. Chart 1: UK 30-year bond yield Source: Koyfin

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Commodities Talk: September and Third Quarter 2026. What next?

Monthly Summary September was a month in which the commodities market stopped moving as a whole. The average weekly change of the basket was minus 2.31%, and only eight of the twenty-six instruments finished the last session in positive territory. This is not a picture of a broad bull market or a broad bear market, but rather a market split into two extremely different directions. It is also worth emphasizing that the presented percentage changes also include futures contract rollovers, which, due to some huge backwardation or contango, are very large. At one pole stands energy. European natural gas gained 5.28% in the last session to reach EUR 72.43/MWh, bringing its year-to-date gain to 151.49% and securing the position of clear leader of the entire list. Brent rose by 3.36% today to USD 98.84 and maintains a 62.75% YTD gain, while WTI rose 2.78% to USD 91.38 with 59.59% YTD. In September alone, Brent added 3.86%, and American crude oil 0.75%. At the other pole, we have a slump in soft commodities and parts of agriculture. Cocoa lost 21.32% in a month, lean hogs 16.69%, cotton 14.91%, and wheat 12.42%. Corn fell 4.02% in the last session following inventory data, deepening its monthly loss to 6.92%. Precious metals went through September clearly in the red. Gold lost 3.88% to USD 4,158, silver 5.81% to USD 60.28, platinum 2.33% to USD 1,700.50, and palladium 7.73% to USD 1,203.70. The reason is single and well-recognized: the Fed's first interest rate hike in three years and ten-year yields in the region of 5.2%. For non-yielding assets, this environment is simply hostile. The Third Quarter in Numbers The quarter belonged to oil. Brent entered July below USD 74, reached nearly USD 110 in September, and closed the period at USD 102.59 (November contract). The cause was the war in the Middle East and transit restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is worth noting what is happening at the very end of the quarter: exports from the region returned to about 17.5 million barrels per day, roughly 98 percent of the pre-conflict level, and the US offered 40 million barrels from the strategic reserve. The market began removing the war premium. Characteristic of this quarter was how many commodities peaked in August and gave back most of the movement in September. Gold reached USD 4,696 and dropped to 4,111. Silver touched USD 71.16 and returned to 61. Cotton spiked to 91.44 cents and closed the quarter at 75.13. Cocoa rose to USD 6,603 and fell to 5,408. This symmetry is not coincidental, but a consequence of the pivot in monetary policy that came in September. Positioning: Where the Crowd Is One-Sided CFTC data from September 22 shows several setups worth noting, as they highlight the risks for the coming weeks. The most crowded long positions are in agriculture. Corn has 535,801 net contracts at a Z-score of 2.12 and the 99th historical percentile, soybeans at 281,581 with a Z-score of 1.81 and a full 100th percentile, and soybean meal at 208,361 with 2.39 and also the 100th percentile. COMEX Copper stands at 90,522 net contracts, a Z-score of 2.12, and the 100th percentile, after a weekly surge of 15.4 thousand. These are levels from which liquidation can be sharp, and September's 6.92% drop in corn may be its first installment. On the opposite side, we have extreme pessimism. US Natural Gas holds a net position of minus 216,530 contracts, a Z-score of minus 1.82, and just the 3rd percentile. Lean Hogs stand at a Z-score of minus 2.16 and exactly the 0th percentile, the most negative reading in available history. Live Cattle is at minus 2.81 with the 41st percentile. Such extremes usually do not signal an immediate rebound, but they limit the room for further sell-offs, as there is no one left to sell. Interesting is the case of Brent crude oil, where speculators maintain a net position of minus 44,185 contracts with a Z-score of minus 1.67 and the 23rd percentile, despite a 40% price increase in the quarter. However, this applies to the NYMEX exchange, not ICE. WTI, with a Z-score of minus 0.18 and the 58th percentile, is much more neutral. Valuations Relative to History A comparison of deviations from five-year averages shows where valuation risk lies. The most overbought relative to its average is copper: 2.65 sigma above the five-year average and 1.74 above the two-year average, at a price of USD 14,447. Zinc is at 1.76 sigma. Gold is at 1.41, silver at 1.33, and platinum at 1.33. None of these levels is a sell signal in itself, but combined with 5% yields in the US, it creates an unfavorable asymmetry for buyers. Copper is primarily a matter of recent supply disruption news rather than a temporary demand spike, though in the long term, copper certainly has strong fundamentals. The cheapest relative to history remain lean hogs at minus 1.75 sigma and orange juice at minus 0.89. US Natural Gas records minus 0.41 sigma, which, given the extremely negative positioning, creates one of the few setups where both valuation and market sentiment are at the same low level. Notable is the disparity in European gas: 2.61 sigma above the two-year average, but only 0.25 above the five-year average. In other words, the current price is extreme relative to the last two quieter years, but entirely normal in the context of the energy crisis Europe experienced earlier. This well reflects the nature of this market. Technical Signals The technical picture is consistent in a way that itself deserves comment. The MACD indicates a downward structure for twenty-one out of twenty-six instruments. For all energy commodities and most agricultural ones, moving averages remain bullish alongside a bearish MACD, indicating a correction within a trend rather than its reversal. The RSI signals oversold conditions in several places: lean hogs 17.3, cotton 20.3, EU sugar 21.6, wheat 23.0. Corn at 28.7 and aluminum at 29.5 are approaching this zone. On the opposite side, not a single instrument is overbought; copper is highest at 59.3 and live cattle at 60.1. This is the picture of a market after a wave of sell-offs, not before one. What to Watch in the Fourth Quarter? Hormuz and the War Premium. The return of exports to 98% of pre-war levels and the offer of 40 million barrels from the SPR work toward stripping away the premium. If negotiations led by Qatar yield a lasting solution, oil has significant downside room, and with it, inflationary pressure will ease. This in turn would support precious metals, so the correlation between these markets will be negative in the coming weeks. The Fed's Path. The ten-year yield at 5.2% is the main drag on gold, silver, and platinum. August PCE data, weaker than forecasts, lowered the probability of an October rate hike from 64% to 34%. If this trend is confirmed, precious metals will get their first real breathing room in months. Heating Season in Europe. EU gas storage filled at around 65% compared to the norm reaching 82% and the 90% requirement is a setup that, at the first colder week, could trigger a sharp move. EU Gas is already the YTD leader and has the fundamentals to stay there. Liquidation of Long Positions in Agriculture. Corn, soybeans, and soybean meal at the 99th and 100th percentiles of historical positioning are an overhang that, upon any demand disappointment, could trigger a move much larger than fundamentals alone would justify. Copper at 2.65 Sigma. Demand from AI infrastructure and data centers is real and structural, but valuation has already priced in a great deal. With positioning at the 100th percentile, room for disappointment is wide.

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Earnings

October 1, 2026

Record after record: Micron smashes Q4 results, server overload crashes website, stock surges post-market

Micron Technology reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of 54.23 billion USD, beating market expectations. Adjusted earnings per share reached 33.42 USD, exceeding Wall Street estimates of 31.83 USD. Strong AI infrastructure demand drove a gross margin of 87 percent for the quarter. Micron projected Q1 FY2027 revenue of 61.5 billion USD, surpassing analyst consensus. Record-breaking revenue, gross margin reaching 87%, and guidance significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations. Micron Technology presented its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, which completely surpassed analysts' estimates and bodes well ahead of upcoming AI-related earnings releases in the coming weeks. Demand for memory chips driven by the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and the transition into the "Super Intelligence" era proved so massive that the company's website stopped working for several minutes following the report's release. Investor reaction in after-hours trading was immediate. According to some reports, Micron's share price surged by as much as 15%, while more realistic estimates from Yahoo Finance or CNBC indicate a 2% gain, following a temporary negative initial reaction. Key Highlights & Figures (Q4 & FY2026) Q4 FY26 Revenue: $54.23 billion (up 379% YoY from $11.32 billion) vs. market consensus of $51.07 – $51.49 billion. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (Non-GAAP EPS, Q4): $33.42 compared to Wall Street expectations of $31.61 – $31.83 (and $3.03 a year earlier). Adjusted Gross Margin (Q4): 87.0% Non-GAAP (vs. market consensus of 86.2%). Adjusted Operating Income (Q4): $44.64 billion (operating margin of 82.3%). Operating Cash Flow (Q4): $43.97 billion (vs. $5.73 billion in Q4 FY25 and market forecast of $33.87 billion). Business Segment Results in Q4:Core Data Center: $18.00 billion (+1,042% YoY, operating margin 85%).Cloud Memory: $16.28 billion (+258% YoY, operating margin 76%).Mobile & Client: $13.11 billion (+249% YoY, operating margin 85%).Automotive & Embedded: $6.82 billion (+376% YoY, operating margin 88%, massive upside surprise vs. forecast of $4.73 billion). Core Data Center: $18.00 billion (+1,042% YoY, operating margin 85%). Cloud Memory: $16.28 billion (+258% YoY, operating margin 76%). Mobile & Client: $13.11 billion (+249% YoY, operating margin 85%). Automotive & Embedded: $6.82 billion (+376% YoY, operating margin 88%, massive upside surprise vs. forecast of $4.73 billion). Full-Year FY2026 Summary:Full-Year Revenue: $133.19 billion (up from $37.38 billion in FY25).Full-Year Non-GAAP Net Income: $86.76 billion (Non-GAAP EPS: $75.52).Annual Free Cash Flow (FCF): $62.31 billion. Full-Year Revenue: $133.19 billion (up from $37.38 billion in FY25). Full-Year Non-GAAP Net Income: $86.76 billion (Non-GAAP EPS: $75.52). Annual Free Cash Flow (FCF): $62.31 billion. Official Q1 FY2027 Guidance: Revenue: $61.5 billion (± $1.5 billion) vs. market consensus around $56.3 – $56.77 billion. Non-GAAP EPS: $38.15 (± $1.00) vs. analyst expectations of $36.02 – $36.05. Non-GAAP Gross Margin: approx. 86.25% Earnings Commentary and Broader Outlook End of the Cyclical Era — Structural Shift in the Memory Market The published report definitively refutes Wall Street's traditional narrative regarding the boom-and-bust cycle in the semiconductor industry. Maintaining a gross margin at an astronomical 87.0% on such a massive sales scale proves that any cooling of price dynamics was a structural change rather than a sign of weakening demand. Demand for HBM memory and fast SSDs for data centers exceeds production capacities and will remain tight throughout calendar year 2027. Incredible Operational Efficiency and Breakthrough in Automotive While all segments recorded triple-digit growth (and Core Data Center achieved a 4-digit surge), the Automotive & Embedded segment ($6.82 billion) warrants special attention. Delivering results over $2 billion higher than analyst expectations indicates that the compute chip boom has gained a second growth engine in Edge AI, autonomous systems, and advanced AI workstations (where Micron secured contracts with all key OEMs). Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Return to Shareholders Micron ended the fiscal year with an astronomical $73.48 billion in cash and liquid assets. Generating over $62 billion in free cash flow (FCF) in 12 months grants management virtually limitless capacity for further investments (including $10 billion for the Boise, Idaho R&D center) alongside ample headroom for an aggressive share buyback program. Impact on the Electronics Market and Stock Valuation Reallocating factory capacities toward AI chips negatively impacts the availability of standard memory, driving price increases for consumer devices (e.g., Apple's $100 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro). From a stock market perspective, however, Micron remains exceptionally attractively valued. With median analyst price targets sitting at $1,510 (+41.8% from current levels) and a forward P/E ratio in single digits at ~7x, the market continues to discount the giant with caution. These results provide a strong catalyst for a re-rating of the stock. It is also worth remembering that during the press conference, we will learn more details regarding the company's planned capital expenditures (CAPEX). Currently, the stock is trading in after-hours around $20 higher than today's close, though given these results, tomorrow's market reaction should arguably be much stronger.

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Energies

October 1, 2026

Brent Crude Oil Prices Retreat as Middle East Supply Recovers but Hormuz Risks Keep $100 in Focus

Brent crude is trading around the $97-per-barrel area as improving Middle East oil flows ease immediate supply concerns, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran negotiations continues to limit the downside. Crude movements through Hormuz have recovered toward pre-war levels, while Saudi Arabia has restored part of its East-West pipeline capacity, creating additional export flexibility. The market is now balancing two opposing forces: a gradual normalization of physical crude flows and the possibility that geopolitical tensions could quickly disrupt those flows again. OPEC+ is also expected to leave November production targets unchanged at its upcoming meeting, keeping the focus firmly on actual barrels reaching the market rather than nominal production quotas. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingBrent CrudeAround $97/bblWhether $100 remains a key resistance areaHormuz FlowsRecovering toward pre-war levelsSustainability of tanker movementsSaudi PipelineEast-West capacity partially restoredFurther recovery in alternative export routesUS-Iran TalksNegotiations remain unresolvedAny agreement affecting Hormuz accessOPEC+November quotas expected to remain unchangedActual production versus nominal targetsSupply RiskImproving, but still elevatedRenewed attacks or shipping disruptionsMarket BiasHighly headline-sensitivePhysical flows versus geopolitical risk Current Brent Crude Price Action Brent has eased toward $97 as evidence of recovering Middle East shipments reduces the immediate scarcity premium. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have risen to approximately 13.2 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia has restored roughly half of the capacity of its East-West pipeline, providing another route for crude exports. The recovery in physical supply is significant because it reduces the probability of an immediate global crude shortage. However, the market is not treating the improvement as a permanent normalization. The key issue is whether higher flows can continue without a durable political agreement. Brent therefore remains particularly sensitive to any fresh developments involving Iran, shipping security, pipeline infrastructure or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East Supply and Production The Middle East remains the dominant factor in the Brent outlook. The return of higher crude flows suggests that Gulf producers are finding ways to move substantial volumes despite continuing regional tensions. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is particularly important because it provides an alternative export route that reduces dependence on Hormuz. However, the recovery in crude shipments should not be interpreted as a complete restoration of normal energy markets. Oil-product flows remain more constrained than crude, while infrastructure damage, elevated freight costs and shipping risks continue to affect the broader energy complex. This means the physical market can continue improving while refined-product markets remain comparatively tight. Strait of Hormuz Risk Hormuz remains the critical swing factor for Brent. Recent estimates place crude flows through the waterway at around 13.2 million barrels per day, approaching the levels seen before the conflict. Kpler data has also indicated that crude movements have recovered substantially, although fuel-product shipments remain much weaker. The important question for traders is therefore not simply whether oil is moving today, but whether shipping conditions can remain stable over the coming weeks. A sustained reopening would remove a substantial portion of the geopolitical premium from Brent. A renewed disruption could have the opposite effect very quickly. OPEC+ Supply Outlook OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current production targets for November. That decision would provide little additional headline supply to the market, although actual production remains below nominal quotas because of the ongoing disruption to Gulf exports. Reuters reports that August output from key OPEC+ producers remained around 5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. This distinction is important. The market is currently more concerned with deliverable barrels than theoretical production capacity. If Middle East transportation continues to normalize, the gap between quotas and actual exports could gradually narrow. Bullish Sentiment Hormuz disruption could return — Any renewed attacks or shipping restrictions could quickly tighten global crude availability. OPEC+ is not adding fresh headline supply — Expected unchanged November quotas provide no immediate additional production increase. Physical fuel markets remain tight — Refined-product availability remains more constrained than crude flows, potentially supporting refinery margins and crude demand. Geopolitical negotiations remain unresolved — The absence of a durable US-Iran agreement leaves a substantial risk premium embedded in the market. Alternative export routes remain vulnerable — The restoration of Saudi pipeline capacity reduces risk but does not eliminate infrastructure exposure. Bearish Sentiment Middle East crude flows are recovering — Increasing shipments reduce immediate concerns over physical shortages. Hormuz crude traffic is improving — Higher volumes through the waterway could progressively remove part of Brent's geopolitical premium. Saudi Arabia has restored alternative export capacity — Greater pipeline utilization provides additional flexibility outside Hormuz. A diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a sharp risk-premium unwind — A credible agreement supporting sustained maritime access could bring additional barrels back into the global market. OPEC+ production could become more effective as logistics normalize — Existing quotas could translate into higher actual supply if export disruptions continue to ease. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The $100-per-barrel area remains the key psychological level for Brent. A sustained move back above $100 would indicate that geopolitical and refined-product risks are continuing to outweigh the improvement in crude flows. Conversely, continued evidence of stable Hormuz traffic and expanding alternative export routes could push Brent below the recent $97 area and toward lower support levels as the geopolitical premium contracts. The next directional move is therefore likely to depend less on incremental changes in global demand and more on whether Middle East supply normalization proves durable. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook is improving, but the market remains vulnerable to another disruption. Higher Hormuz flows and the partial restoration of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline are increasing the amount of crude reaching international markets. At the same time, OPEC+ is expected to maintain existing November targets rather than introduce another significant production change. The biggest supply variable is now transportation. If shipping continues to normalize, the physical market should gradually become less constrained. If disruptions return, the existing spare logistical capacity could be tested rapidly. Demand Outlook Global crude demand remains exposed to the broader economic outlook, but near-term Brent pricing is being driven predominantly by supply and geopolitical developments. Refinery demand remains important because fuel inventories and product availability are tighter than crude flows in several markets. This can keep refiners competing aggressively for available crude even as headline supply conditions improve. A sustained recovery in Middle East energy flows would eventually shift attention back toward economic growth, industrial activity and global petroleum consumption. Currency Hedger View Brent's current volatility has important implications for companies with international energy exposure. Higher oil prices can increase transportation, manufacturing, logistics and energy-input costs, while sudden movements in crude can also affect currencies linked to commodity exports. For businesses purchasing oil, fuel or energy-related inputs in US dollars, the combination of volatile Brent prices and USD exchange-rate movements can create a double layer of cost uncertainty. Currency Hedger focuses on the currency side of that equation, helping businesses manage FX exposure while monitoring the macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influencing exchange rates. Coming Sessions Traders are likely to focus on: The sustainability of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Further restoration of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Any progress or deterioration in US-Iran negotiations. OPEC+ decisions regarding November production targets. Evidence of renewed attacks against energy infrastructure. US crude and refined-product inventory developments. Whether Brent can regain and hold the $100 level. The key market question is increasingly clear: is the recovery in Middle East oil flows becoming a durable normalization, or is it only a temporary improvement within a still-fragile supply system? Today Markets View Brent remains caught between improving physical supply and persistent geopolitical risk. The recovery in Middle East crude movements is reducing immediate scarcity concerns, but the unresolved status of Hormuz means the market has not fully removed its geopolitical premium. For the coming sessions, $100 remains an important upside reference point, while sustained improvement in physical flows could gradually place greater pressure on prices below current levels. The direction of Brent will ultimately depend on whether supply normalization continues faster than geopolitical risk returns. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses exposed to international oil, energy, freight or commodity costs, Brent volatility can translate directly into changing US-dollar funding requirements and operating costs. Currency Hedger provides businesses with access to international FX solutions designed to help manage currency exposure and plan around changing exchange-rate conditions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Energies

October 1, 2026

WTI Price Forecast: Bears await acceptance below $88.00, 50% Fibo. support breakdown

WTI meets with a fresh supply amid easing supply concerns, though the downside seems cushioned. The US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the commodity. A convincing break below the 50% Fibo. support is needed to back the case for further depreciation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – comes under some renewed selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, reversing the previous day's modest recovery gains. The commodity, however, holds above the $88.00 mark and a nearly four-week low as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. Recovery in flows through the Saudi East-West pipeline is seen as a key factor weighing on crude oil prices. However, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which should help limit the downside for the commodity. In fact, hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the US-Iran war faded after President Donald Trump turned down a seven-day peace proposal from Iran. Moreover, Trump has told aides that he expects major combat operations and renewed bombing against Iran to resume following the November midterm elections. From a technical perspective, the overnight failure to find acceptance above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent slide favor bearish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a slightly negative reading, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 suggests lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive oversold reversal. Crude oil prices, however, hold above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $87.75, which should act as a nearby pivot. A sustained break lower would expose deeper structural supports at the 61.8% retracement at $84.37 and then the 78.6% level at $79.56, ahead of the cycle floor near $73.44. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 200-period SMA at $90.11, followed by the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $91.13, which capped the overnight recovery attempt. Meanwhile, a more substantial bullish reprieve would require a move through the 23.6% retracement at $95.31. WTI 4-hour chart

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Banks

October 1, 2026

Fed path shaped by firm inflation – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews August US inflation and growth data, highlighting that Core PCE came in softer than expected but underlying price pressures in services remain firm. Benchmark revisions lowered measured inflation but still show it above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target. Stronger consumption and GDP revisions suggest the US economy entered 2H26 with more momentum, keeping an October rate hike possible. Core PCE soft but Fed still wary "August inflation: Core PCE undershot expectations, but the details were less reassuring. Softer core goods inflation masked a reacceleration in core services and super-core inflation, pointing to still-firm underlying price pressures." "Revisions and underlying inflation: Benchmark revisions lowered the level of inflation and corrected earlier overstatements, but the broader story is unchanged: underlying inflation has drifted higher over the past year and remains above levels consistent with the Fed’s target." "Consumption, income and GDP: Revisions painted a stronger growth backdrop, with firmer real consumption, wage income and GDP growth in 1H26 than previously estimated. August spending was particularly robust, underscoring resilient household demand." "Assessment and October FOMC implications: Inflation revisions were modestly favorable, but growth revisions were more important. The economy entered 2H26 with stronger momentum than previously thought, while underlying inflation remains too elevated to provide the Fed with clear comfort. A pause in October remains possible, but an October hike remains on the table pending September CPI and PPI data."

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Banks

October 1, 2026

US Dollar: Fed outlook supported by robust data – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir assess US PCE and GDP revisions as broadly supportive for a firm US macro backdrop and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve stance. They highlight robust US growth, sticky inflation and upgraded GDP forecasts, arguing that lower inflation revisions do not materially alter the narrative for the US Dollar or Fed policy expectations. Growth, inflation and Fed implications "PCE and GDP revisions were a mixed bag with hawkish backward adjustments to growth and dovish adjustments to inflation. However, the underlying trend is the key story, and robust growth with rising inflation risks should continue to dominate the Fed's outlook. We still expect the Fed to lift rates in October, but can't discard a more gradual approach." "Despite the larger-than-expected downward revisions to PCE inflation, we think the message remains hawkish on net. Underlying growth is solid, and inflation remains sticky." "We have upgraded our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 3.0% q/q AR on the back of still firm consumer spending and capex. Domestic demand is strong." "While news of lower inflation changes the intro to the story, it does little to change the underlying narrative. Consumer price changes remain sticky. We now expect core PCE inflation will close 2026 at 3.0% Q4/Q4, and at 2.5% next year." "All in, today's data confirm the macro story that we and, more importantly, the Fed already knew: the US economy remains strong, consumer/capex spending is firm, corporate profits are rising, and inflation is sticky."

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $61.00 amid easing Fed rate hike expectations

Silver falls as lower-than-expected August PCE inflation data drove CME FedWatch October rate hike odds down to roughly 38%. August core PCE rose just 0.2%, pulling annual headline inflation down to 3.4% against a 3.7% forecast. Further Silver gains face headwinds from elevated Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions. Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after posting losses the previous day, trading around $60.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday. Non-yielding Silver receives support as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations eased following softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now price in roughly a 38% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from nearly 51% prior to the PCE release. Attention now shifts to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, where consensus forecasts expect 90,000 jobs added in September with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%. The cooling inflation expectations were driven by August US PCE price index data, which rose 0.3% against a 0.4% forecast, while core PCE increased 0.2%, missing the 0.3% consensus estimate. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation decelerated to 3.4%, coming in well below the expected 3.7%. However, further gains for the white metal could be capped by broader market headwinds, as elevated oil prices and Treasury yields continue to offset the support from lower rate-hike odds. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty persists as the US and Iran have made little progress in negotiations, even amid signs of recovering Middle East oil flows. Markets remain cautious about the durability of this supply recovery without a formal resolution to end the conflict, especially with both Washington and Tehran claiming control over the strategic waterway. Treasury yields also climbed to multi-decade highs amid concerns over persistent energy-driven inflation, which could prompt tighter monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury yield steadies around 5.298%, while the 30-year Treasury yield was last up nearly 4 bps to 5.633%. US data revisions keep Fed bias tilted toward further tightening According to TD Securities, the latest US PCE and GDP revisions were “a mixed bag,” combining “hawkish backward adjustments to growth and dovish adjustments to inflation.” However, the firm stresses that “the underlying trend is the key story,” with “robust growth with rising inflation risks” expected to “continue to dominate the Fed's outlook.” In this context, TD Securities says, “we still expect the Fed to lift rates in October, but can't discard a more gradual approach,” underscoring that the revisions have not meaningfully shifted their view on the policy path.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Gold bulls seem hesitant as resilient US Dollar and yields cap upside

Gold reverses a modest Asian session dip, though any meaningful appreciation seems elusive. The USD buying remains unabated as oil-driven inflation fears keep US bond yields elevated. Geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven buck, warranting caution for XAU/USD bulls. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $4,139 region during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's pullback from the $4,220 area, touched in reaction to softer-than-expected US inflation data. However, elevated US bond yields remain supportive of the prevailing strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and should keep a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the non-yielding yellow metal. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Wednesday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.4% YoY in August, unchanged from the previous month's downwardly revised reading and missed estimates of a 3.7% print. Moreover, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, matched July's downwardly revised 3% YoY rate and fell short of expectations. This comes on top of dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams and tempered bets on an October rate hike, which offered some support to gold. US inflation revisions temper pressure but keep October FOMC hike in play Societe Generale’s Jan Groen notes that August US inflation data delivered a mixed signal for policymakers. While “Core PCE undershot expectations,” he cautions that “the details were less reassuring,” with “softer core goods inflation” effectively masking “a reacceleration in core services and super-core inflation, pointing to still-firm underlying price pressures.” Turning to the broader policy backdrop, Groen argues that “inflation revisions were modestly favorable, but growth revisions were more important.” In his view, “the economy entered 2H26 with stronger momentum than previously thought, while underlying inflation remains too elevated to provide the Fed with clear comfort.” Against that setting, Societe Generale judges that “a pause in October remains possible, but an October hike remains on the table pending September CPI and PPI data.” The initial market reaction, however, turned out to be short-lived amid an upward revision to the US GDP growth from 1.5% to 2.2% annualized rate for the second quarter of 2026. Furthermore, oil-driven inflation risks underpin the prospects for additional Fed tightening, which keeps US bond yields near multi-year highs. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in an over 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff lifts the safe-haven Greenback to a fresh high since July 28, acting as a headwind for the Gold price. Hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the US-Iran war faded after President Donald Trump turned down a seven-day peace proposal from Iran to resolve the military conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, Trump has told aides that he expects major combat operations and renewed bombing against Iran to resume following the November midterm elections. In further developments, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Iranian delegation to leave the country immediately amid stalled peace talks. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, favours USD bulls and caps the Gold price. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Apart from this, speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members will drive USD demand and provide some impetus to the bullion. Meanwhile, the focus will remain glued to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday, which will be looked at for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Furthermore, the incoming geopolitical headlines might continue to infuse volatility across global financial markets and produce meaningful trading opportunities around gold. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis The XAU/USD pair keeps a bearish, capped tone and remains lodged within a downward-sloping parallel channel. The upper boundary of the channel coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and reinforces overhead supply near $4,300. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 44, hinting at stabilizing momentum. Mixed momentum indicators signal only a softening of the downside pressure, rather than overturning the prevailing bearish structure. Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the aforementioned confluence hurdle. On the downside, the lower boundary of the channel at $4,082 acts as key support, and a clean break beneath this floor would likely open the way to a broader bearish extension in the near term.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Corn Prices Plunge as US Stocks Surge Above Expectations and Harvest Supply Weighs on Outlook

Corn futures are facing heavy selling pressure as the latest US stocks data points to substantially larger available supplies than the market had anticipated. December corn has fallen to around $5.01 per bushel, while March and May contracts are also under pressure as traders reassess the size of the US balance sheet heading into the new marketing year. The September 1 Grain Stocks report showed 2.095 billion bushels of corn in storage, dramatically above the 1.551 billion recorded a year earlier and well above both the previous USDA balance-sheet estimate and trade expectations. The combination of larger inventories, incoming harvest supplies and weaker front-month futures is creating a significantly more bearish near-term supply backdrop. Ethanol demand remains an important source of support, but it is currently not strong enough to offset the scale of the stocks increase. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingDecember 2026 corn$5.0075/bu, down 21¼¢Harvest pressure and stocksMarch 2027 corn$5.155/bu, down 20½¢Export demandMay 2027 corn$5.2325/bu, down 19¾¢Forward supply balanceUS corn stocks2.095B bushelsSize of available suppliesYear-on-year stocks+544M bushelsPace of supply accumulationEthanol production1.0007M bpdDomestic corn demandEthanol stocks23.865M barrelsFuel demand and marginsExpected corn exports0.5–1.3 MMTInternational demand Current Corn Price Action Corn futures are experiencing broad-based selling pressure. December corn declined 21¼ cents to $5.0075, while March fell 20½ cents to $5.155 and May declined 19¾ cents to $5.2325. The national average cash corn price also dropped sharply to approximately $4.58 per bushel. The weakness across both nearby and deferred contracts indicates that the market is reassessing the broader supply balance rather than simply reacting to short-term technical selling. The fact that 2027 crop contracts are also declining shows that traders are beginning to price the implications of abundant US supplies further into the marketing cycle. US Corn Stocks Surge The most significant market development is the latest NASS Grain Stocks report. September 1 corn stocks were estimated at approximately 2.095 billion bushels. That compares with: 1.551 billion bushels a year earlier Around 1.922 billion implied by the previous WASDE estimate Approximately 1.911 billion expected by the market The increase of roughly 544 million bushels from the previous year represents a substantial expansion in available inventory. The figure also exceeds the previous USDA balance-sheet estimate by approximately 173 million bushels and trade expectations by around 184 million. This creates a significant bearish adjustment to the starting point for the new marketing year. Why the Stocks Number Matters Corn enters the new marketing year with considerably more inventory than traders had expected. That means the market has a larger supply cushion before demand needs to accelerate enough to tighten the balance. The implications extend beyond the current contract. If production remains strong and demand fails to absorb the additional inventory, ending stocks could remain elevated through the next marketing cycle. That creates pressure on futures prices as traders attempt to encourage consumption and maintain export competitiveness. Ethanol Demand Provides a Buffer The ethanol sector remains one of the most important sources of domestic corn demand. EIA data shows ethanol production at approximately 1.0007 million barrels per day during the latest reported week. Production declined seasonally by around 21,000 barrels per day. At the same time, ethanol inventories declined by approximately 818,000 barrels to 23.865 million barrels. The inventory draw is supportive because it indicates that ethanol stocks are being absorbed. However, production remains subject to seasonal changes and energy-market economics. For corn, the critical question is whether ethanol demand can remain strong enough to absorb a meaningful portion of the large available supply. Export Demand Becomes Critical The next major demand test will come from US corn export sales. Traders are looking for approximately 500,000 to 1.3 million metric tons of 2026/27 corn bookings. A result toward the upper end of that range would provide evidence that lower US prices are stimulating international demand. Strong exports could help reduce the pressure created by the larger stocks figure. Weak sales would have the opposite effect, leaving the market increasingly dependent on domestic demand to absorb the surplus. Bullish Sentiment 1. Ethanol inventories are decliningThe latest 818,000-barrel draw indicates continued fuel-market demand. 2. Ethanol production remains around 1 million barrels per dayDespite the seasonal decline, production remains substantial and continues to support domestic corn consumption. 3. Lower prices can stimulate exportsThe sharp decline in futures improves US corn's competitiveness in international markets. 4. Strong export sales could absorb excess supplyBookings near the upper end of expectations would provide an important demand signal. 5. Feed demand remains a major consumption channelLower corn prices can encourage livestock producers to increase feed usage and improve margins. Bearish Sentiment 1. US corn stocks are dramatically above last yearThe 2.095 billion-bushel inventory represents a major increase from the previous year's 1.551 billion. 2. Stocks exceed both USDA and trade expectationsThe surplus relative to forecasts is creating an immediate bearish adjustment. 3. Incoming harvest adds further supplyThe market is dealing with large existing inventories while new-crop supplies enter the pipeline. 4. Ethanol production is declining seasonallyThe latest reduction indicates that ethanol demand is not currently accelerating enough to offset the stocks increase. 5. Futures are breaking lower across the curveSelling pressure is extending into 2027 contracts, suggesting concerns about the broader balance sheet. Corn Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The corn market is entering a period where the size of available supply will be the dominant fundamental consideration. December corn is now close to the $5-per-bushel threshold. A sustained break below this area could keep attention focused on the size of the stocks surplus and the ability of demand to absorb it. For prices to stabilise, traders will likely need evidence of stronger export demand, sustained ethanol consumption or improved feed demand. A combination of disappointing exports and continued strong harvest availability would keep the market vulnerable to further downside pressure. The key question is whether lower prices can generate enough additional consumption to prevent stocks from remaining excessively large. Supply Outlook The supply outlook has become considerably more bearish following the stocks report. Corn enters the new marketing year with substantially more inventory than previously expected. This means the market does not need an exceptionally large new crop to maintain comfortable supplies. Harvest progress will remain important because each additional bushel moving into commercial channels increases near-term availability. Weather-related disruptions could still alter yield expectations, but the current stocks figure provides a substantial cushion against moderate supply disruptions. Demand Outlook Demand will determine how quickly the surplus can be absorbed. Ethanol remains a major component, with production around 1 million barrels per day. Exports are the next critical variable. Strong international bookings would provide a direct outlet for excess US production. Feed demand is another important support factor, particularly if lower corn prices improve livestock margins. The market therefore needs several demand channels to remain active simultaneously if it is to overcome the large stocks surplus. Currency Hedger View Corn is priced internationally in US dollars, making the currency an important component of physical trade. A stronger US dollar can reduce the purchasing power of overseas buyers and make US corn less competitive against supplies priced in other currencies. Conversely, a weaker dollar could support export demand by reducing the local-currency cost for international buyers. For businesses involved in physical corn imports or exports, the combination of futures prices and FX movements should therefore be monitored together. Coming Sessions The next major signals will come from demand indicators and the market's reaction to the large stocks surplus. Traders will be watching: US weekly corn export sales Ethanol production Ethanol inventories Harvest progress US yield expectations Feed demand Global corn export competition US dollar movements Crude oil and energy-market conditions A strong export-sales result could help stabilise prices after the sharp selloff. If export demand disappoints while harvest supplies continue increasing, the market could remain under significant pressure as traders price a larger-than-expected US supply cushion. Today Markets View Corn has received a clear bearish supply signal from the latest US stocks data. Inventories are substantially above last year and significantly higher than both previous USDA estimates and trade expectations. Ethanol demand provides an important counterweight, but the latest seasonal decline in production is not enough to offset the scale of the inventory increase. The next test is therefore demand. Strong exports, sustained ethanol consumption and improving feed demand could begin absorbing the surplus. Without that confirmation, the large US stocks position leaves corn vulnerable to continued price pressure as the harvest progresses. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling corn internationally, the US dollar can materially affect the final cost of physical transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside commodity-market movements, allowing companies to consider both the underlying corn price and the FX component of cross-border trade. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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October 1, 2026

Soybean Prices Slip Despite Tighter US Stocks as Export Demand and Crush Data Drive the Next Move

Soybean futures remain under pressure despite US ending stocks coming in below both last year's level and trade expectations. November soybeans are trading around $12.93 per bushel, while January and March contracts remain above $13 as traders balance tighter old-crop inventories against harvest pressure, weaker corn prices and the need for stronger export demand. The latest USDA stocks data shows 315 million bushels of soybeans remaining at the end of the 2025/26 marketing year, 10 million bushels below the previous year and 6 million below expectations. However, the market has so far failed to translate that tighter balance into sustained upside momentum. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingNovember 2026 soybeans$12.93/bu, down 4¾¢Harvest pressure and demandJanuary 2027 soybeans$13.0925/bu, down 3½¢Forward export demandMarch 2027 soybeans$13.185/bu, down 3¢New-crop balanceUS soybean stocks315M bushelsTightness versus expectationsPrivate export sale105,000 MTWhether additional sales followExpected weekly exports850K–1.0M MTStrength of international demandAugust crush expectation210.5M bushelsDomestic processing demandSoybean oil stocks~1.774B lbs expectedBiofuel and vegetable-oil demand Current Soybean Price Action Soybean futures are struggling to build on the tighter stocks report. November soybeans declined 4¾ cents to $12.93, while January fell 3½ cents to $13.0925. March futures slipped 3 cents to $13.185. The national average cash soybean price also moved lower to approximately $12.395 per bushel. Soymeal futures declined between $1.80 and $2.30, while soybean oil was comparatively stable, ranging from unchanged to 16 points lower. The weakness across soybeans and soymeal indicates that traders remain focused on near-term supply availability and demand confirmation rather than simply reacting to the tighter old-crop stocks figure. US Soybean Stocks Provide Fundamental Support USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks report showed approximately 315 million bushels of soybeans remaining at the end of August. That is: 10 million bushels below the previous year 6 million bushels below trade expectations of 321 million bushels The number therefore represents a modestly tighter ending balance than the market anticipated. This should provide underlying support to the soybean market, particularly if export demand accelerates. However, the market is now moving into a period when the incoming harvest becomes increasingly important. A tight old-crop balance does not necessarily translate into a sustained shortage if the new crop provides ample supply. Export Demand Becomes the Key Test USDA has already reported a private sale of 105,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. The next major demand test will be weekly export sales. Trade expectations are currently centred around 850,000 to 1 million metric tons of soybean bookings. A result near or above the upper end of that range would provide evidence that international buyers are actively securing US supplies. A weaker result would reinforce concerns that current prices are not yet low enough to generate sustained export acceleration. The export market is therefore becoming increasingly important as traders look beyond the old-crop stocks number. Soybean Crush Outlook USDA's monthly Fats & Oils data will provide another important demand signal. The market is looking for approximately 210.5 million bushels of soybeans crushed during August. A strong crush figure would indicate continued domestic demand for soybean meal and soybean oil. That would be particularly significant because soybean processing provides two separate demand channels: Soymeal for livestock feed Soybean oil for food, industrial and biofuel applications Stronger crush activity could therefore help absorb soybean supplies even if export demand remains uneven. Soybean Oil and Soymeal Markets Soymeal futures are currently under pressure alongside soybeans, with losses of approximately $1.80 to $2.30. Soybean oil is holding up better, with futures ranging from unchanged to 16 points lower. The relative performance of the two products will remain important for processor margins and overall soybean demand. If soybean-oil demand strengthens, particularly through biofuel-related consumption, crushers could have greater incentive to maintain high processing rates. Conversely, weaker meal demand could place pressure on crush margins and reduce the pace of processing. Bullish Sentiment 1. US soybean stocks are below expectationsThe 315 million-bushel stocks figure is tighter than both last year's level and the market forecast. 2. Private export demand remains activeA fresh 105,000 MT sale demonstrates that buyers continue to secure US soybeans. 3. Weekly exports could provide a catalystBookings near or above 1 MMT would strengthen evidence of robust international demand. 4. Domestic crush demand remains substantialExpected August crush of 210.5 million bushels points to continued processing demand. 5. Soybean oil provides an additional demand channelStrong vegetable-oil and biofuel demand could support soybean processing even when meal demand is softer. Bearish Sentiment 1. Futures are failing to rally on tighter stocksThe market's reaction suggests that traders remain focused on incoming supply and demand risks. 2. Harvest pressure can limit upside momentumNew-crop availability is becoming increasingly important as the marketing year progresses. 3. Soymeal prices remain weakLower meal prices can weigh on processor economics if feed demand does not improve. 4. Corn weakness is spilling into soybeansBroad agricultural selling pressure is limiting the ability of soybeans to respond positively to supportive fundamentals. 5. Export demand still needs confirmationThe private sale is supportive, but sustained weekly sales are required to establish a stronger demand trend. Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The soybean market is approaching an important test around the $13-per-bushel area. The underlying stocks data is supportive, but prices need stronger confirmation from exports and domestic crush activity before a sustained move higher can develop. A combination of weekly export sales close to or above 1 MMT and a strong crush figure would strengthen the demand side of the balance sheet. If export sales disappoint and harvest supplies remain readily available, the market could continue to trade under pressure despite the tighter old-crop stocks figure. The next directional move is therefore likely to depend on whether demand can absorb incoming US supplies at current price levels. Supply Outlook The immediate supply picture is transitioning from old-crop tightness toward new-crop availability. The 315 million-bushel ending-stock figure confirms that the previous marketing year finished with relatively tight inventories. However, traders are increasingly focused on the size and quality of the incoming US soybean crop. Harvest progress, yields and weather during the final stages of the growing season will determine how quickly new supplies become available. Any evidence of lower-than-expected production potential could strengthen the impact of the tight old-crop balance. Demand Outlook Demand remains the most important potential source of upside momentum. USDA export sales will show whether international buyers are increasing purchases at current prices, while the Fats & Oils report will provide a clearer indication of domestic crush demand. China and other major importers remain critical to the global soybean balance. A combination of stronger exports and sustained domestic processing would tighten the forward balance and provide a more durable foundation for higher prices. Currency Hedger View For international soybean traders and physical buyers, the US dollar remains an important part of the demand equation. US soybean prices are ultimately translated into local currencies for overseas buyers. A stronger dollar can reduce purchasing power and make US-origin supplies less competitive, while a softer dollar can improve export competitiveness. Businesses exposed to soybean purchases should therefore monitor the relationship between soybean futures, US dollar movements and international commodity demand. The currency component can materially change the effective cost of a physical soybean transaction even when the underlying futures price remains relatively stable. Coming Sessions The next market catalysts will centre on demand and processing data. Traders will be watching: US weekly soybean export sales Soybean meal export demand August US soybean crush Soybean oil stocks Harvest progress and yield reports Chinese soybean demand US dollar movements Corn and broader grain-market direction A combination of strong export sales and solid crush data could allow soybeans to recover despite harvest pressure. If demand remains below expectations while new-crop supplies become increasingly available, the market could continue to struggle to convert tighter old-crop stocks into sustained price gains. Today Markets View Soybeans are showing an important divergence between fundamentals and price action. US stocks finished the previous marketing year tighter than expected, while a fresh private export sale provides evidence of continued demand. Yet futures remain lower because traders are already looking beyond the old-crop balance toward incoming harvest supplies and the strength of export and crush demand. The next move will therefore depend less on the headline stocks number and more on whether international buyers and domestic processors can absorb available supplies at current prices. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling soybeans internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying soybean price and the FX component of cross-border transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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October 1, 2026

Wheat Prices Slide Despite Tighter US Stocks as Russian Export Cuts Reshape Global Supply Outlook

Wheat futures remain under pressure despite evidence of tighter US old-crop stocks, as traders weigh larger-than-expected production against weaker technical momentum and the potential for substantial global export availability. Chicago SRW is leading the decline, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat are also trading lower. The latest USDA data places total US wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels, while September 1 stocks are estimated at roughly 1.846 billion bushels. Although stocks are materially below the previous year, the market is looking beyond the tighter inventory figure toward production, export demand and the evolving global supply outlook. At the same time, SovEcon's reduction in its Russian wheat export projection introduces a potentially important bullish supply factor that could become more significant if other major exporters cannot fully compensate. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingCBOT December wheat$6.7575, down 17¢Whether selling pressure continuesCBOT March wheat$6.9075, down 16¼¢Forward demand and export expectationsKC December wheat$7.33, down 10¢HRW supply and protein demandMinneapolis December wheat$6.9325, down 6¢Spring wheat availabilityUS wheat production1.534B bushelsFinal production revisionsUS wheat stocks~1.846B bushelsTightness versus demandRussian 2026/27 exports36.7 MMT estimatePotential 4.7 MMT reductionUS export sales250K–450K MT expectedEvidence of international demand Current Wheat Price Action The wheat complex is failing to respond positively to the latest tighter-stock figures. Chicago SRW is showing the greatest weakness, with December futures falling 17 cents to $6.7575 and March declining 16¼ cents to $6.9075. Kansas City HRW futures are also lower, with December at $7.33 and March at $7.465. Minneapolis spring wheat is comparatively firmer but remains under pressure, with December at $6.9325 and March at $7.145. The immediate market signal is therefore bearish price action despite a tighter US stocks balance. That divergence is important. When prices decline despite tighter inventory figures, traders are often focusing on forward production and demand rather than the current stock number alone. US Wheat Production Remains a Key Supply Factor The latest NASS Small Grains Summary puts total US wheat production at approximately 1.534 billion bushels. That is only around 3 million bushels above the August Crop Production estimate and is slightly above trade expectations. By class, production is estimated at: Hard Red Winter: 466 million bushels Soft Red Winter: 294 million bushels White winter wheat: 259 million bushels Spring wheat: 449.5 million bushels The relatively limited revision to the overall production estimate means the market has not received a major new supply shock from the latest USDA figures. Instead, attention is shifting toward how this production will be absorbed by domestic consumption and exports. US Wheat Stocks Show a Tighter Balance September 1 wheat stocks are estimated at approximately 1.846 billion bushels, down around 288 million bushels from the previous year. The lower inventory level provides evidence that the US wheat balance sheet is tightening. However, futures are not yet responding with sustained upside momentum. The reason is that traders are looking ahead to the next phase of the marketing year, when production from the latest harvest will increasingly determine available supplies. If export demand accelerates while stocks remain comparatively tight, the lower inventory figure could become increasingly important for prices. If exports remain sluggish, the market could continue to view current stocks as manageable despite the year-on-year decline. Export Demand Becomes the Next Major Catalyst The next major indicator for the wheat market is US export demand. Traders are looking for approximately 250,000 to 450,000 metric tons of wheat bookings in the latest weekly sales data. A result near or above the upper end of that range could provide evidence that lower US prices are stimulating international demand. A weaker result would reinforce concerns that global buyers have sufficient alternatives. The export market therefore represents an important test for the current price structure. Russia Cuts Wheat Export Outlook Russia is becoming an increasingly important factor for the forward wheat balance. SovEcon has reduced its 2026/27 Russian wheat export projection to 36.7 million metric tons, representing a 4.7 million-ton reduction from its previous estimate. That is a significant adjustment. Russia remains one of the world's largest wheat exporters, meaning a reduction of this scale could tighten global export availability if it is ultimately reflected in actual shipments. The impact on US wheat will depend on how much market share other exporters can capture. If Russian availability falls while demand remains stable, US wheat could become more competitive in international markets. Bullish Sentiment 1. US wheat stocks are substantially below last yearSeptember 1 inventories are around 288 million bushels lower year-on-year, indicating a tighter starting balance. 2. Russian export expectations are fallingThe 4.7 MMT reduction in SovEcon's projection could eventually tighten global export availability. 3. Lower futures prices could stimulate demandThe recent decline improves the competitiveness of US wheat for international buyers. 4. Production growth is limitedThe latest US production estimate is only marginally higher than the previous estimate, reducing the risk of a major new production increase. 5. Export sales could provide a catalystA strong weekly sales figure could quickly shift attention back toward tightening supply. Bearish Sentiment 1. Wheat futures are declining despite tighter stocksThe market's inability to sustain a rally from the stocks data indicates continued selling pressure. 2. US production remains substantialAt 1.534 billion bushels, total wheat production provides considerable physical availability. 3. Global competition remains intenseThe US must compete with major exporters across Europe, the Black Sea region and other producing countries. 4. Export demand remains unconfirmedUntil stronger sales data emerges, traders may continue to question whether current prices are low enough to generate sustained buying. 5. Technical momentum remains weakThe broad-based declines across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis indicate that selling pressure is not isolated to one wheat class. Wheat Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The wheat market is entering a critical period where supply tightness and export demand need to overcome weak price momentum. The next major test is whether US export sales can accelerate. If international buyers respond to lower US prices and Russian export availability continues to decline, the market could begin pricing a tighter global export balance. Conversely, disappointing sales could leave the market focused on abundant US production and continued competition from other exporters. For CBOT wheat, the $6.75 area is becoming an important near-term reference following the latest decline. A sustained recovery would require evidence that demand is strengthening rather than simply a technical rebound. Supply Outlook The US supply picture is tightening at the inventory level, but total production remains large. The more significant potential supply development is emerging internationally. Russia's lower projected exports could remove a meaningful amount of wheat from global trade flows. The effect will depend on final Russian production, domestic consumption and the pace of actual exports. The global wheat market therefore has two competing forces: substantial production availability on one side and potentially tighter exportable supplies on the other. Demand Outlook Global wheat demand remains the key variable for the next sustained price move. US exporters need to demonstrate that lower futures prices are attracting additional international buying. Strong export sales would provide evidence that demand is responding to cheaper US wheat. Weak sales would suggest that buyers remain comfortable sourcing from competing origins. Feed demand, flour demand and broader global consumption will also influence the pace at which available supplies are absorbed. Currency Hedger View For international wheat buyers and sellers, the currency component remains important alongside the futures market. Movements in the US dollar can materially affect the competitiveness of US wheat for overseas buyers. A stronger dollar can make US-origin wheat more expensive in local-currency terms, while a weaker dollar can improve export competitiveness. Businesses with wheat exposure should therefore monitor both CBOT prices and currency movements when evaluating physical purchasing or sales decisions. The interaction between wheat prices, the US dollar, Russian export availability and global freight costs could become increasingly important as the new marketing year develops. Coming Sessions The next phase of the wheat market will centre on whether demand can validate the lower futures prices. Traders will be watching: US weekly wheat export sales Russian export availability Black Sea wheat prices US dollar movements Global import demand Weather across major producing regions US ending-stock expectations Technical support across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis A strong export-sales cycle combined with reduced Russian availability would strengthen the case for a recovery. If sales remain disappointing and global exporters continue competing aggressively for market share, wheat could remain under pressure despite the tighter US stocks balance. Today Markets View Wheat prices are currently caught between tighter US inventories and substantial production availability. The latest stocks data provides a fundamentally supportive signal, but futures are showing that traders need stronger evidence of demand before assigning a sustained premium to the market. The reduction in Russia's projected 2026/27 exports is potentially more important for the forward outlook. If that reduction translates into materially lower export volumes while US sales improve, the global wheat balance could tighten significantly. For now, export demand is the key confirmation signal. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses buying or selling wheat internationally, movements in the US dollar can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying commodity price and the FX component of cross-border transactions. Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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October 1, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise as Brazil Weather Risks Challenge a Record Global Supply Outlook

Coffee prices are pushing higher as weather concerns in Brazil begin to challenge an otherwise bearish global supply outlook. Arabica futures have reached a three-week high while robusta has climbed to a one-month high, with dry-weather concerns during Brazil's critical flowering period creating renewed upside risk for the 2026/27 crop. The market remains fundamentally divided. Record global production forecasts, strong Brazilian exports and improving Vietnamese supply continue to weigh on prices, while the possibility of an El Niño-driven disruption to flowering and tightening arabica inventories are providing support. The next major move in coffee is therefore likely to depend on whether weather concerns develop into a measurable threat to production or whether the market continues to focus on abundant global supplies. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingArabicaAround a three-week highBrazilian flowering conditions and rainfallRobustaAround a one-month highVietnam production and export flowsBrazil 2026 CropConab estimate raised to 67.6M bagsFinal harvest volumes and export availabilityGlobal 2025/26 Balance3M-bag surplus projected by ICOWhether the surplus persists2026/27 Global CropUSDA forecasts record 189.7M bagsBrazil's contribution to global growthBrazil WeatherRainfall remains highly variableFlowering conditions in Minas GeraisEl NiñoWeather risk remains elevatedPotential disruption to Brazil and Asian cropsArabica Inventories260,054 bags, after a recent 27-year lowWhether stocks begin tightening againRobusta Inventories5,398 lots, around a 10-month highContinued pressure from abundant supply Current Coffee Price Action Arabica coffee is currently benefiting from renewed weather risk, with prices reaching a three-week high as traders reassess the prospects for Brazil's next crop. Robusta has also strengthened, reaching a one-month high, although its fundamental picture remains more heavily influenced by improving Vietnamese supply and elevated exchange inventories. The recent rally follows a period of significant selling pressure. Coffee had previously fallen to multi-month lows as traders focused on expectations for abundant global production. The market is now shifting between two competing narratives: record supply versus potential weather-driven crop risk. Brazil Coffee Supply and Production Brazil remains the most important variable for the global coffee market. Conab has raised its 2026 Brazil coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags, compared with the previous estimate of 66.7 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is expected to increase 34.8% year-on-year to 48.21 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The larger arabica crop is a major bearish factor for prices, but attention is increasingly shifting toward the next 2026/27 crop and the condition of flowering trees. Brazil Flowering Conditions The flowering period has become one of the most important near-term drivers for arabica. Brazil's Minas Gerais region is particularly important because it is the country's largest arabica-producing area. Recent rainfall has been relatively supportive. Somar Meteorologia reported 29.7 mm of rainfall, equivalent to 112% of the historical average, during the week ending September 27. However, forecasts for limited rainfall over the coming week have renewed concerns that moisture conditions could become less favourable. This creates a highly weather-sensitive market. If rainfall remains sufficient through flowering, the large-production narrative could regain control. If dryness becomes persistent, traders may begin pricing greater risk into the 2026/27 crop. El Niño Coffee Risk El Niño remains a significant uncertainty for the coffee market. A stronger El Niño pattern could disrupt rainfall across important coffee-producing regions in South America and Asia, creating the potential for drought, excessive rainfall and temperature extremes. For Brazil, the timing is particularly important because September and October rainfall can influence flowering and subsequent crop development. The market does not necessarily need a confirmed production loss to react. A prolonged deterioration in weather expectations could be enough to generate additional speculative buying. Global Coffee Supply Outlook The broader supply picture remains bearish. The International Coffee Organization estimates that 2025/26 global coffee production reached a record 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year-on-year. At the same time, consumption was estimated at 180.6 million bags, down 0.9% year-on-year, leaving the global market with an estimated 3 million-bag surplus. That would represent the first global surplus in five years and provides a significant fundamental headwind for prices. The USDA's 2026/27 forecast is even larger, with global production expected to rise 6% to a record 189.7 million bags. Brazil and Vietnam Export Pressure Brazilian coffee is continuing to reach the export market as the country's harvest progresses toward completion. Brazil's total coffee exports in August increased 31% year-on-year to 4.155 million bags, a record for the month. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports surged 54% to 953,592 bags. Vietnam is also adding supply pressure to the robusta market. Coffee exports during the first eight months of 2026 increased 13.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million metric tons. Vietnam's 2025/26 production is projected at 1.76 million metric tons, a four-year high. This combination of Brazilian exports and improving Vietnamese supply makes it difficult for coffee prices to sustain a major rally without stronger evidence of crop damage. Coffee Inventories Inventory trends are increasingly important because the two markets are moving in different directions. ICE arabica inventories recently fell to 217,646 bags, a 27-year low, before recovering to around 260,054 bags. The longer-term inventory picture remains supportive for arabica, particularly if stocks begin declining again while weather concerns increase. Robusta presents the opposite picture. ICE robusta inventories have climbed to around 5,398 lots, a ten-month high. The divergence between falling or historically low arabica stocks and elevated robusta stocks is an important reason why the two coffee contracts may continue to behave differently. Bullish Sentiment Brazilian weather risk is increasing, particularly during the critical flowering period for the next arabica crop. El Niño could disrupt rainfall patterns, creating additional uncertainty across major coffee-producing regions. Arabica inventories remain historically tight, despite their recent recovery. Brazilian robusta production is expected to decline, limiting part of the country's supply growth. A sustained deterioration in Brazilian weather could rapidly change expectations for the 2026/27 crop. Bearish Sentiment Global coffee production is expected to reach record levels, creating a substantial supply headwind. The ICO projects a 3 million-bag global surplus for 2025/26. USDA forecasts record global production of 189.7 million bags for 2026/27. Brazilian exports are exceptionally strong, keeping physical coffee flowing into international markets. Vietnamese exports and production are increasing, putting additional pressure on robusta. Robusta inventories are near a ten-month high, reinforcing the abundant-supply narrative. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Coffee's next major directional move will likely depend on Brazilian weather. If rainfall remains adequate through the flowering period, the market could increasingly price in the prospect of another large Brazilian crop. Combined with strong exports and record global production forecasts, that would create renewed downside pressure. However, if dryness becomes persistent in Minas Gerais or El Niño produces significant disruptions, traders could begin reducing expectations for the next crop. The most important distinction is between short-term weather risk and confirmed production damage. Coffee can rally sharply on weather concerns, but maintaining those gains will likely require evidence that crop potential is actually deteriorating. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains large. Brazil's current crop is providing substantial export availability, while Vietnam's improving production and exports are strengthening the robusta supply picture. Looking further ahead, the USDA's record global production forecast remains one of the strongest bearish fundamentals in the market. The major threat to this outlook is weather. A significant deterioration in Brazil during flowering could reduce the projected crop and shift the market rapidly toward a tighter balance. Demand Outlook Demand is currently struggling to offset the expected increase in production. The ICO's forecast for a 0.9% decline in consumption is particularly important because a combination of rising production and softer demand creates the potential for continued inventory accumulation. For prices to sustain a major upside move, the market will likely need either stronger consumption or a meaningful reduction in expected production. Weather remains the most immediate mechanism capable of producing that adjustment. Currency Hedger View Coffee is priced internationally in U.S. dollars, making currency movements an important secondary factor for producers, roasters, importers and international traders. A stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of coffee for buyers outside the United States, while currency depreciation in producing countries can influence producer selling behaviour and export competitiveness. With coffee prices now responding to both weather expectations and global supply forecasts, businesses exposed to international coffee purchases should consider the commodity price and FX exposure together rather than treating them as separate risks. Coming Sessions Traders will be watching: Rainfall forecasts across Brazil's Minas Gerais region. The development of Brazil's 2026/27 arabica flowering cycle. Further evidence of El Niño's impact on South American weather. Brazilian coffee export volumes. Vietnamese production and export flows. ICE arabica inventory movements. ICE robusta inventory levels. USDA and ICO revisions to global production and consumption estimates. Whether the recent arabica and robusta rallies can extend despite the record global supply outlook. Today Markets View Coffee is entering a critical period in which weather risk is beginning to challenge an exceptionally bearish global supply outlook. Record production forecasts, strong Brazilian exports and improving Vietnamese supply remain significant obstacles for sustained price appreciation. However, the market is increasingly focused on Brazil's flowering conditions, where a prolonged period of adverse weather could materially alter expectations for the next crop. For now, coffee remains a market where weather expectations can move prices well before production data confirms the underlying impact. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For coffee importers, exporters, roasters and international businesses, the cost of coffee is only part of the equation. Changes in the USD exchange rate can materially alter the final cost of international coffee transactions. Currency Hedger provides businesses with access to international FX solutions designed to help manage currency exposure alongside their underlying commercial requirements. Open a Currency Hedger account: Open a Currency Hedger Account Learn more about Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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October 1, 2026

Copper Prices Under Pressure as China Demand Signals Clash With Mine Supply Risks and Tariff Uncertainty

Copper futures are trading near $6.50 per pound, with prices under pressure as the market weighs conflicting signals from China against renewed concerns over global mine supply. China remains the dominant demand driver for industrial metals, and while improving manufacturing activity offers support, slower industrial-profit growth and reduced trading activity during the country's extended holiday period are limiting near-term momentum. At the same time, developments in Chile, Panama and the United States are keeping the supply outlook highly sensitive to political and operational developments. The copper market is therefore entering the next phase with a clear tension between improving Chinese manufacturing conditions and uncertainty surrounding mine production, refined-metal trade policy and global economic growth. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingCopper PriceNear $6.50/lb and around two-week lowsWhether support develops around current levelsChina ManufacturingManufacturing activity returned to growth in SeptemberWhether the improvement translates into stronger copper demandChinese Industrial ProfitsUp 15.7% year-on-year in the first eight monthsEvidence of further improvement or renewed slowingChile SupplyPotential disruption from strike actionDuration and impact on mine outputPanama SupplyGovernment has proposed restarting a major mineTiming and scale of any production restartU.S. TariffsDecision on refined copper tariffs remains delayedPotential impact on trade flows and regional premiumsNear-Term LiquidityChinese holiday expected to reduce activityWhether lower liquidity exaggerates price movements Current Copper Price Action Copper remains vulnerable near $6.50 per pound, with futures recently reaching their lowest level in roughly two weeks. The immediate pressure reflects a combination of softer momentum in Chinese industrial profitability, reduced market participation and uncertainty over the strength of physical copper demand. However, the decline is not being driven by a uniformly weak fundamental picture. China's manufacturing sector returning to growth provides an important counterweight, particularly because China accounts for a substantial share of global copper consumption. The key question is whether improving manufacturing conditions can translate into stronger orders for copper-intensive sectors such as power infrastructure, construction, manufacturing and industrial equipment. China Copper Demand Outlook China remains the central demand variable for copper. Industrial profits increased 15.7% during the first eight months of the year, but the pace slowed from the 17.6% increase recorded through the first seven months. That moderation suggests that the industrial recovery remains uneven. More encouragingly, China's manufacturing sector returned to growth in September. If this improvement persists, it could strengthen expectations for copper consumption and provide a foundation for a recovery in prices. The market will therefore be watching whether the manufacturing improvement is sustained after the holiday period and whether it begins to generate stronger physical demand rather than simply improving sentiment. Global Copper Supply Risks Supply developments are becoming increasingly important as prices approach recent lows. Potential strike action at a Chilean operation owned by Antofagasta introduces a fresh source of supply uncertainty. Any prolonged disruption could tighten concentrate availability and provide support to copper prices. Panama represents the opposite supply story. The government's proposal to restart operations at a major mine could eventually increase global production and ease some supply concerns if the restart progresses. This creates an increasingly two-sided supply outlook: Chile introduces potential disruption risk while Panama could add future production. Refined Copper and U.S. Tariff Uncertainty U.S. trade policy remains another major variable for copper. The Trump administration has so far delayed a decision on potential tariffs on refined copper. The uncertainty is important because any change in U.S. import policy could alter global trade flows, regional premiums and the availability of refined copper in different markets. Until greater clarity emerges, traders may remain reluctant to establish aggressive directional positions based purely on tariff expectations. Bullish Sentiment Chinese manufacturing has returned to growth, improving the outlook for industrial copper consumption. Potential Chilean strike action could restrict mine output and tighten the global concentrate market. Copper remains strategically important to power infrastructure, electrification and industrial investment. Any sustained improvement in Chinese industrial activity could quickly strengthen physical demand expectations. Trade-policy uncertainty could create regional supply distortions that support prices in affected markets. Bearish Sentiment Copper has fallen toward two-week lows, indicating continued short-term selling pressure. Chinese industrial-profit growth has slowed, suggesting the manufacturing recovery remains uneven. The Chinese holiday period could reduce trading activity, limiting immediate demand signals and liquidity. A potential restart of major Panamanian mine operations could eventually increase global supply. Delayed U.S. tariff decisions are keeping manufacturers and traders uncertain about future refined-copper trade flows. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Copper's next major move is likely to depend on whether the market receives stronger confirmation of improving Chinese demand or increasingly significant evidence of supply disruption. A sustained recovery in Chinese manufacturing combined with disruption at major mines could shift attention back toward tighter global balances and encourage buyers to return. Conversely, if Chinese demand remains subdued while Panama moves toward restarting production and U.S. tariff uncertainty continues, copper could remain under pressure and retest lower technical support. For now, $6.50 per pound is an important psychological area. The market's ability to stabilize around this level will help determine whether the recent decline develops into a broader correction or becomes a temporary setback within a larger industrial-metals cycle. Supply Outlook The global supply picture remains mixed. Potential disruption in Chile represents an immediate upside risk to prices, particularly if strike action affects meaningful production for an extended period. Panama could provide additional supply over the longer term if its proposed mine restart progresses. The timing, scale and reliability of that production will be critical in determining how much additional metal reaches the international market. The copper market therefore remains highly sensitive to operational developments at major mines. Demand Outlook Demand remains closely tied to China's industrial cycle. The return of manufacturing growth is constructive, but the slowdown in industrial-profit growth shows that the broader recovery is not yet uniform. The next stage will depend on whether manufacturing expansion leads to stronger orders, inventory replenishment and infrastructure-related copper consumption. Outside China, the market will also monitor global industrial activity and investment in electricity networks, renewable infrastructure and other copper-intensive industries. Currency Hedger View Copper remains particularly sensitive to movements in the U.S. dollar, as a stronger dollar can increase the effective cost of dollar-denominated commodities for international buyers. For businesses purchasing copper or other industrial metals in international markets, currency movements can therefore amplify or offset changes in the underlying commodity price. With copper caught between uncertain Chinese demand and changing global supply expectations, managing the FX component of international commodity exposure can become just as important as monitoring the copper market itself. Coming Sessions Traders will be watching: The sustainability of China's manufacturing recovery. Further Chinese industrial-profit data and evidence of improving demand. Developments surrounding potential strike action in Chile. Progress toward a possible restart of mining operations in Panama. Any announcement regarding U.S. refined-copper tariffs. Copper's ability to stabilize around the $6.50-per-pound area. Changes in the U.S. dollar that could influence international commodity demand. Today Markets View Copper is currently caught between improving Chinese manufacturing signals and persistent concerns over industrial demand. At the same time, supply-side risks in Chile and potential additional production from Panama are creating an increasingly balanced but highly event-sensitive outlook. The next sustained move is likely to require confirmation from either side of the market. Stronger Chinese physical demand and mine disruptions would strengthen the case for a recovery, while continued demand weakness combined with improving supply availability could keep prices under pressure. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For companies exposed to international copper purchases, sales or cross-border commodity payments, movements in the underlying copper price are only one part of the risk equation. Changes in the USD exchange rate can materially affect the final cost of international transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure through structured FX solutions, market analysis and access to global currency markets. General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Cocoa Prices Slide on Weak Chocolate Demand as West African Supply Outlook Splits the Market

Cocoa prices remain under pressure as abundant current-season supplies and softer chocolate demand offset growing concerns about the quality and size of the next West African crop. New York and London cocoa futures are trading lower after recent declines, with rising exchange inventories and significantly stronger Ivory Coast shipments adding to the near-term supply pressure. At the same time, chocolate manufacturers are facing weaker consumer demand, with Lindt & Sprüngli cutting its 2026 organic sales-growth outlook and lowering chocolate prices for a second time this year. The longer-term picture is considerably less bearish. Early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast and Ghana crops point toward lower production, while disease, aging trees and potential El Niño-related weather disruption could tighten supplies later in the season. The cocoa market is therefore balancing strong current availability against potentially tighter future production. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingNY CocoaTrading under pressureWhether recent lows attract buyingLondon CocoaAlso weakerEuropean demand and physical supplyIvory Coast Shipments2.18 MMT, up 19.8% year over yearWhether strong arrivals continueICE Inventories3.48 million bags, 2.25-year highFurther inventory accumulationCurrent Ivory Coast CropStrong productionFinal harvest and export volumes2026/27 Ivory Coast CropEarly estimates around 1.8 MMTPod development and main-crop yieldsGhana 2026/27 CropForecasts significantly lowerDisease, aging trees and weatherChocolate DemandMixed to weakerConsumer spending and manufacturer marginsEl Niño RiskImportant medium-term factorWest African rainfall and soil moisture Current Cocoa Price Action December New York cocoa settled approximately 0.76% lower, while December London cocoa declined around 0.72%. The immediate pressure is coming from evidence that physical cocoa availability remains strong. Ivory Coast farmers have shipped approximately 2.18 million metric tons during the current international cocoa marketing year through late September, an increase of nearly 20% from the comparable period. That is a substantial flow of physical supply into the global market. At the same time, ICE cocoa inventories have climbed to approximately 3.48 million bags, the highest level in around 2.25 years. The combination of strong producer shipments and rising exchange stocks is making it difficult for futures to maintain the highs reached earlier in the year. Ivory Coast Cocoa Supply Ivory Coast remains the most important supply variable for the global cocoa market. Government data indicates that the country harvested approximately 2.06 million MT during the June 2025-June 2026 period, around 30% above the previous year's 1.58 million MT. The increase confirms that the current production cycle has been considerably stronger than the previous season. However, there is an important distinction between current availability and the next crop. Early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop point toward weaker pod development and below-average cherelle formation. Initial estimates place production around 1.8 million MT, approximately 18% below the roughly 2.2 million MT estimated for 2025/26. If those early crop assessments prove accurate, the current supply surplus could begin to tighten as the new season progresses. Ghana Cocoa Production Ghana is providing another potential source of medium-term support. The country's cocoa regulator has estimated the 2026/27 crop at approximately 650,000 MT, down around 13% from the 750,000 MT estimate for 2025/26. COCOBOD has also warned that production could potentially fall into a much lower range of 450,000 to 550,000 MT, citing swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and adverse weather risks. The current season, however, has been much stronger. Ghana reported approximately 750,000 MT harvested during 2025/26, representing a 25.6% increase from the previous season. This again highlights the split between strong current supply and a potentially weaker next crop. Cocoa Inventories and Physical Supply Rising ICE inventories remain one of the clearest bearish indicators for the current market. Stocks have climbed to approximately 3.48 million bags, creating a substantial physical supply cushion. This gives chocolate manufacturers and processors greater flexibility to secure cocoa without competing aggressively for limited nearby supplies. The inventory trend will therefore be particularly important. If exchange stocks continue rising, the market could remain under pressure even as concerns about the next crop increase. Conversely, a sustained reduction in inventories would suggest that physical demand is beginning to absorb the available supply. Chocolate Demand Demand has become an increasingly important source of downside pressure. Lindt & Sprüngli has reduced its 2026 organic sales-growth outlook to 0%-2% from 4%-6%, while also lowering chocolate prices for a second time this year. The company cited subdued consumer sentiment. This suggests that high cocoa costs have already had an impact on the broader chocolate industry, while consumers may be becoming more sensitive to elevated retail prices. European cocoa processing data also remains soft. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year over year in Q2 to 316,366 MT, marking the lowest Q2 level in six years. However, demand is not uniformly weak. North American cocoa grindings increased 7.7% year over year to 109,659 MT, while Asian grindings rose 25% to 224,646 MT. The regional divergence means global cocoa demand cannot be described simply as falling. Crop Quality and Disease Crop quality remains an important bullish factor. Cloudy weather and limited sunshine across parts of Ivory Coast and Ghana have increased the risk of black pod disease, which can reduce cocoa bean quality and usable production. This is particularly important because large headline production figures do not necessarily translate into equivalent quantities of high-quality exportable beans. The market will therefore be watching both volume and quality as the new crop develops. Weather and El Niño Risk El Niño remains one of the biggest medium-term uncertainties. A strong El Niño pattern can bring warmer and drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture and placing additional stress on cocoa trees. If the weather pattern intensifies during critical crop-development periods, the impact could become visible in pod formation and final yields. This creates a potentially significant contrast with the current supply situation. The market has abundant cocoa today, but a weather-driven production decline could reduce availability later in the season. Bullish Sentiment Early estimates point to a smaller 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop, with production potentially around 1.8 MMT. Ghana's next crop is expected to decline, with disease and aging plantations creating structural supply concerns. Black pod disease could reduce crop quality across West Africa. El Niño weather risks could bring hotter and drier conditions to the world's dominant cocoa-producing region. StoneX has reduced its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to only 25,000 MT, indicating a potentially much tighter balance. Transgraph expects the global surplus to shrink substantially as production declines. Strong North American and Asian cocoa grindings demonstrate that demand remains resilient in important regions. Bearish Sentiment Ivory Coast shipments are up nearly 20%, indicating substantial current physical availability. ICE inventories are at a 2.25-year high, providing a large supply cushion. Ivory Coast's current harvest was approximately 30% higher than the previous season. Ghana's current-season production is also substantially higher than the previous year. European cocoa grindings are falling, highlighting weakness in an important consumption region. Lindt's lower sales-growth forecast points to subdued chocolate consumer demand. Large current inventories could delay the impact of next-season production concerns on nearby prices. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Cocoa's short-term outlook remains dependent on physical availability and demand. The market has already moved lower from its recent highs because current-season supply is plentiful and inventories are rising. For prices to establish a sustained recovery, traders will likely need evidence that the next crop is deteriorating sufficiently to offset the current supply surplus. The most important transition would be a decline in available inventories combined with weaker production forecasts for Ivory Coast and Ghana. Until that occurs, the market could remain vulnerable to additional pressure from abundant nearby supply. Traders will be watching: Ivory Coast port arrivals Ghana production and crop estimates ICE cocoa inventories European grindings North American grindings Asian grindings Black pod disease El Niño developments Next-crop pod formation Chocolate retail demand Global surplus/deficit estimates Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming increasingly two-sided. Current-season production from Ivory Coast and Ghana has been strong, creating abundant availability and rebuilding inventories. The next crop could be significantly different. Lower early pod formation, disease, aging plantations and adverse weather risks could reduce production across West Africa. If the next crop falls materially below current expectations, the market could move rapidly from a comfortable supply situation toward a much tighter balance. Demand Outlook Global cocoa demand remains mixed. Europe is showing clear weakness, while North America and Asia have recorded significant increases in processing volumes. The major question is whether high chocolate prices will continue to suppress consumer demand. Manufacturers cutting prices and reducing sales-growth expectations suggest that the industry is already responding to weaker consumption conditions. If cocoa prices remain low enough to encourage restocking, physical demand could eventually improve. Currency Hedger View Cocoa is predominantly priced in U.S. dollars, meaning currency movements can materially change the effective cost for international chocolate manufacturers, processors and cocoa traders. The U.S. dollar, West African currencies and European currencies can therefore influence the local-currency economics of cocoa purchases and international sales. Currency Hedger is monitoring the relationship between cocoa prices, global demand, commodity-market sentiment and foreign-exchange movements. For businesses purchasing cocoa internationally, managing the FX exposure alongside the underlying commodity price can provide greater visibility over future costs. Coming Sessions The immediate market focus will remain on Ivory Coast supply and ICE inventories. Continued strong arrivals and rising stocks could keep nearby cocoa prices under pressure. Beyond the current crop, attention will increasingly move toward the 2026/27 season. Early evidence of weaker pod formation in Ivory Coast and Ghana, combined with disease and El Niño risks, could become increasingly important if current inventories begin to decline. Demand will remain another critical variable. If European weakness spreads to North America and Asia, the market could face additional pressure. If lower prices encourage restocking and processing activity, the demand picture could stabilize. The key market transition to watch is therefore from abundant current supply toward potentially tighter next-season production. Today Markets View Cocoa prices remain under pressure because the current physical market is well supplied, Ivory Coast shipments are running substantially above last year's levels and ICE inventories have reached a multi-year high. However, the longer-term supply picture is becoming less comfortable. Early indications of weaker Ivory Coast and Ghana crops, disease concerns and the potential impact of El Niño could significantly reduce production during the next season. The market is therefore dealing with a clear fundamental conflict: strong current supply and weak pockets of demand versus increasingly uncertain future production. The next major directional move will depend on whether current inventories continue to rise or whether evidence of next-season crop deterioration begins to dominate market expectations. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger Commodity prices and currencies can move together to create significant changes in international transaction costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses assess and manage foreign-exchange requirements associated with international purchasing, selling and cross-border payments. Whether your business has exposure to USD, EUR, GBP or other currencies, understanding the relationship between cocoa prices and FX markets can help improve visibility over future transaction costs. Visit currencyhedger.com to discuss your international currency requirements. General Disclaimer General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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October 1, 2026

Platinum Prices Hold Near One-Month Lows as High Oil, Treasury Yields and Mixed Demand Weigh on Outlook

Platinum prices remain under pressure around $1,700 an ounce, with the precious-metals complex facing competing macroeconomic and fundamental forces. Higher crude oil prices and rising Treasury yields are weighing on non-yielding metals as markets assess the risk that persistent energy-driven inflation could keep monetary policy tighter for longer. At the same time, softer U.S. inflation data has provided some support by reducing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. Platinum's longer-term demand outlook also remains mixed. Industrial demand is expected to benefit from the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, while weaker automotive demand and a projected market surplus create a counterweight. The platinum market is therefore being driven by a combination of interest rates, energy prices, industrial demand and automotive consumption. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingPlatinum PriceAround $1,700/ozWhether prices can stabilize near one-month lowsTreasury YieldsElevatedImpact on non-yielding precious metalsCrude OilRemains elevatedInflation expectations and monetary policyU.S. InflationSofter than expectedFed rate expectationsIndustrial DemandForecast to rise 5% in 2026AI infrastructure investmentAutomotive DemandForecast to fall 4%Vehicle production and emissions-system demand2026 Market BalanceProjected 265,000-ounce surplusWhether the surplus expands or contractsLong-Term DemandIncreasing AI-related applicationsPace of infrastructure investment Current Platinum Price Action Platinum is trading close to $1,700 per ounce, remaining near a one-month low as higher Treasury yields weigh on precious metals. The recent rise in bond yields is particularly important because platinum does not generate interest income. When government bond yields increase, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets can become more significant. The pressure has been amplified by elevated crude oil prices. Higher energy prices can increase inflation expectations and raise concerns that central banks may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. However, the latest softer U.S. inflation data has provided a counterweight, reducing expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in the immediate policy cycle. Treasury Yields and Monetary Policy The relationship between platinum and U.S. Treasury yields remains one of the most important short-term macro drivers. If yields continue moving higher because of persistent inflation expectations, platinum could remain under pressure as investors reassess the relative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets. A stabilization or decline in yields would remove part of that headwind. The inflation outlook is therefore critical. Softer U.S. inflation provides some support for platinum because it reduces the likelihood of additional monetary tightening, but sustained energy inflation could reverse that improvement if oil prices remain elevated. Crude Oil and Inflation Risk Crude oil remains an important influence on platinum through the broader inflation and interest-rate channel. Elevated oil prices can increase headline inflation and potentially keep central banks cautious about easing financial conditions. The current geopolitical environment is adding uncertainty to energy markets, with negotiations between the United States and Iran showing limited progress despite signs that Middle East supply flows are recovering. For platinum, the key issue is not simply the direction of oil itself, but whether higher energy costs translate into higher inflation expectations and higher real yields. If that occurs, precious metals could face additional pressure. Industrial Demand Platinum's industrial demand outlook provides an important longer-term support factor. The World Platinum Investment Council expects industrial platinum demand to increase by approximately 5% in 2026. A significant part of the longer-term growth story is linked to the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. AI data centers require substantial amounts of electricity and infrastructure investment, creating potential additional demand across industrial supply chains where platinum-group metals can have applications. This gives platinum a structural demand narrative that is different from traditional precious-metal investment demand. Automotive Demand The automotive sector remains a significant counterweight. WPIC expects automotive platinum demand to decline approximately 4% in 2026. That decline is important because automotive applications represent a major source of platinum demand. The market is therefore facing a transition in its demand structure: industrial consumption is expected to increase, while automotive demand is projected to weaken. The extent to which industrial growth can offset automotive weakness will be central to the market balance. Platinum Market Balance The current fundamental outlook remains mixed. WPIC projects a 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026, suggesting that available supply could exceed demand despite stronger industrial consumption. That surplus provides a fundamental ceiling for prices if inventories remain comfortable and demand growth fails to accelerate. However, the projected surplus needs to be monitored against actual production, investment demand and industrial consumption. A smaller-than-expected surplus would improve the medium-term price outlook, while an expanding surplus would increase pressure on platinum. Bullish Sentiment Softer U.S. inflation reduces expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Industrial platinum demand is forecast to increase 5% in 2026, providing an important source of consumption growth. AI infrastructure expansion could create a longer-term structural demand driver. Lower interest-rate expectations could reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding platinum. Any sustained reduction in Treasury yields could encourage renewed precious-metals demand. Supply disruptions or weaker-than-expected production could reduce the projected market surplus. Bearish Sentiment Elevated Treasury yields continue to make non-yielding metals less attractive. Higher crude oil prices could sustain inflation concerns and delay monetary easing. Automotive demand is forecast to fall 4% in 2026, weakening one of platinum's major demand channels. WPIC expects a 265,000-ounce surplus, indicating that supply could remain above consumption. Continued strength in the U.S. dollar could create additional pressure on dollar-denominated platinum. Persistent geopolitical and energy-market uncertainty could keep real yields elevated. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Platinum's next significant move is likely to depend on whether the market places greater emphasis on macroeconomic pressure or the longer-term industrial demand story. A sustained decline in Treasury yields would improve the environment for platinum, particularly if inflation continues to moderate. Conversely, another rise in yields driven by energy inflation could keep prices near recent lows. The $1,700 area is therefore an important reference point for near-term market sentiment. A sustained recovery would require evidence that the macroeconomic pressure is easing or that physical and investment demand are strengthening. Traders will be watching: U.S. Treasury yields Federal Reserve rate expectations U.S. inflation data Crude oil prices U.S. dollar movements Automotive production Industrial platinum demand AI infrastructure investment Platinum inventories WPIC supply-and-demand estimates Supply Outlook The projected 265,000-ounce surplus means the market is not currently facing the same immediate supply-deficit pressure seen in some other precious metals. That does not eliminate upside risk. A disruption to mine supply, weaker refining availability or stronger industrial demand could rapidly reduce the expected surplus. The key issue is whether the projected surplus remains intact as the year progresses. Demand Outlook Demand is increasingly becoming a story of industrial growth versus automotive weakness. AI-related infrastructure provides an emerging source of industrial demand, while the automotive sector is expected to consume less platinum. If AI-related demand expands faster than currently expected, it could help narrow the projected surplus. Conversely, weaker vehicle production combined with elevated borrowing costs could suppress industrial demand more broadly. The evolution of the demand mix will therefore be critical for platinum's medium- and long-term fundamentals. Currency Hedger View Platinum is priced internationally in U.S. dollars, making movements in the dollar an important secondary influence on the effective cost of the metal for international buyers. For businesses purchasing platinum or other precious metals, a stronger dollar can increase local-currency costs even when the underlying platinum price is unchanged. Currency Hedger is monitoring the relationship between platinum, U.S. Treasury yields, crude oil, Federal Reserve expectations and the U.S. dollar. For companies with significant international commodity exposure, managing the FX component alongside the underlying commodity price can provide greater visibility over future transaction costs. Coming Sessions The immediate focus will remain on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations. If oil prices remain elevated and markets begin pricing renewed monetary tightening, platinum could remain under pressure. If inflation continues to soften and Treasury yields stabilize or decline, attention could shift back toward industrial demand and the longer-term AI infrastructure story. The market will also be watching whether the projected 265,000-ounce surplus remains credible as new demand and supply data emerge. The key tension is therefore between near-term macroeconomic pressure and longer-term industrial demand growth. Today Markets View Platinum remains caught between a challenging macroeconomic environment and improving structural industrial demand. High Treasury yields, elevated crude oil prices and weaker automotive demand are creating pressure around the $1,700 area, while softer inflation and the continued expansion of AI infrastructure provide potential support. The projected 265,000-ounce surplus means the market still has a fundamental supply cushion, but the longer-term demand outlook could become increasingly important if industrial consumption expands faster than expected. For now, Treasury yields, crude oil and the U.S. dollar remain the key short-term variables, while AI-related industrial demand represents one of the most important longer-term factors. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger Commodity prices and currency markets are closely connected. For businesses buying or selling platinum internationally, movements in the underlying metal price can be amplified by changes in the exchange rate. Currency Hedger helps businesses assess and manage foreign-exchange requirements associated with international purchasing, selling and cross-border payments. Whether your business has exposure to USD, EUR, GBP or other currencies, understanding the interaction between commodity markets and FX can help improve visibility over future transaction costs. Visit currencyhedger.com to discuss your international currency requirements. General Disclaimer General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Sugar Prices Fall on Weak Physical Demand as India, Thailand and Brazil Supply Risks Build

Sugar prices are under pressure from weak near-term physical demand, but the longer-term outlook is becoming increasingly dependent on tightening global supply prospects. New York sugar has retreated from its recent highs, while London white sugar is also under pressure as large potential deliveries against the expiring October contract highlight subdued physical demand. At the same time, the outlook beyond the current season is becoming more constructive as production risks emerge across India, Thailand and Brazil. The market is therefore balancing weak immediate demand against increasingly uncertain future supply. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingNY Sugar #11Recent decline following September highWhether selling extends below recent supportLondon White Sugar #5Also trading lowerEuropean physical demand and global supplyPhysical DemandWeak, with large potential October deliveriesWhether buyers return at lower prices2025/26 Global BalanceRecord production and projected surplusSize of available inventories2026/27 Global BalanceISO projects 200,000 MT deficitWhether production estimates deteriorate furtherIndiaWeakest monsoon rainfall in 11 yearsImpact on cane yields and next-season outputThailandProduction estimates fallingExport availabilityBrazilLower production reported in Center-SouthSugar versus ethanol allocationWeatherEl Niño risk remains importantRainfall across major producing regionsCrude OilHigher energy prices influence ethanol economicsBrazilian mills' sugar/ethanol mix Current Sugar Price Action New York October sugar settled around 1.07% lower, while December London white sugar declined approximately 0.63%. The immediate pressure is coming from demand rather than a sudden improvement in the longer-term production outlook. The expiring October New York contract is particularly important. McDougall Global Views estimates that open interest could result in deliveries of approximately 1.8 million metric tons, well above the six-year average. Such a large delivery exposure suggests that physical buyers have not been sufficiently aggressive at current prices. That creates near-term pressure, particularly after New York sugar reached a 17.5-month high on September 10 on expectations of a future global deficit. Global Sugar Supply The global supply picture is becoming increasingly divided between the current surplus and the potential deficit developing in the next crop cycle. The International Sugar Organization expects 2025/26 global production to reach a record 182 million metric tons, representing approximately 3.5% year-over-year growth. That production level is expected to generate a 1.1 million MT global surplus, although the surplus estimate has already been reduced from 2.2 million MT. The picture changes significantly for 2026/27. The ISO currently projects global production falling approximately 1% to 180.1 million MT, producing a 200,000 MT deficit. Other forecasts are also pointing toward a tighter market, although the estimates vary considerably. StoneX has projected a deficit, while Covrig Analytics has moved away from its previous surplus expectation. Czarnikow is projecting an even larger deficit further ahead, particularly if Brazilian mills increasingly prioritize ethanol production. India Sugar Production and Monsoon Risk India is becoming one of the most important variables for the next sugar crop. India's cumulative monsoon rainfall from June through September is reported at 12.6% below normal, making it the weakest monsoon performance in 11 years. That matters because India is the world's second-largest sugar producer and a major participant in global exports. The government's decision to permit up to 1 million MT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31 provides another indication that domestic supply conditions remain an important concern. India is normally a significant sugar exporter, making substantial imports particularly noteworthy for the global market. However, the longer-term production outlook remains uncertain. The USDA previously projected India's 2026/27 production at 33.6 million MT, an increase of 12% year over year, based on expectations for favorable rainfall and expanded acreage. The latest rainfall data creates a risk that those assumptions may need to be reassessed. Thailand Sugar Production Thailand is another significant supply risk. Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production of approximately 10 million MT, representing a decline of about 17% year over year. The USDA is also forecasting a substantial reduction, with 2026/27 Thai production estimated at approximately 9.5 million MT. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, meaning lower production can have a disproportionately large impact on internationally available export supplies. If production continues to deteriorate, the impact could become more visible in global physical premiums and export availability. Brazil Sugar Production and Ethanol Brazil remains the largest sugar-producing country and is therefore central to the global balance. Recent Center-South production data has already highlighted supply pressure, with Unica reporting June sugar production down 26.3% year over year to 3.903 million MT. The Brazilian market also has an important energy-market connection. Higher crude oil prices can encourage Brazilian mills to allocate more cane toward ethanol rather than sugar, reducing the amount of sugar available for export. Czarnikow has highlighted this possibility in its longer-term deficit projection, particularly if elevated crude prices continue to improve ethanol economics. That makes the relationship between crude oil, ethanol margins and Brazilian sugar production an increasingly important factor for sugar traders. Weather and El Niño Risk Weather remains one of the biggest upside risks for sugar. An El Niño pattern can disrupt rainfall across several of the world's major sugar-producing regions, including Brazil, India and Thailand. The potential combination of weaker Indian monsoon rainfall, reduced Thai production and Brazilian weather risks creates a more complicated supply outlook than the headline global production numbers suggest. The key question is whether these weather concerns translate into actual reductions in cane yields and sugar production. If they do, the current projected deficit could widen considerably. Bullish Sentiment India's weak monsoon raises the risk of lower cane yields and reduced future sugar production. Thailand production forecasts are falling, potentially reducing export availability from the world's second-largest exporter. Brazilian Center-South production is weaker, tightening the supply outlook from the world's largest producer. El Niño risks could create simultaneous production problems across several major growing regions. India's decision to permit raw sugar imports highlights the possibility of tighter domestic availability in a traditionally important exporting country. Higher crude oil prices can encourage Brazilian mills to favor ethanol over sugar, reducing exportable sugar supplies. Multiple analysts are now forecasting a 2026/27 global deficit, replacing earlier expectations for a surplus. Bearish Sentiment Near-term physical demand remains weak, with large potential deliveries against the expiring October New York contract. 2025/26 global production is expected to reach a record level, leaving the market with substantial available supply. The ISO still forecasts a 1.1 million MT surplus for 2025/26. Global ending stocks are projected to remain high, with the USDA forecasting 2026/27 stocks of approximately 44.4 million MT. India's USDA production forecast remains higher, at 33.6 million MT for 2026/27. StoneX has already reduced its deficit estimate from earlier expectations, demonstrating how quickly global balance projections can change. Weak physical demand could continue to pressure futures even if longer-term supply fundamentals become tighter. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Sugar is currently caught between two very different fundamental narratives. The short-term market is dealing with weak demand and substantial potential physical deliveries, while the forward market is increasingly focused on the possibility of a global deficit. This creates the potential for continued volatility rather than a straightforward directional move. The September high remains an important reference point for the longer-term bullish case. A sustained recovery toward that area would require evidence that production risks are translating into tighter physical availability. Conversely, continued weak demand and large inventories could keep prices under pressure even as weather risks increase. Traders will be watching: Indian rainfall and cane conditions Thai production estimates Brazilian Center-South crush data Brazilian sugar/ethanol allocation Global export availability Crude oil prices El Niño developments Physical sugar demand ICE warehouse deliveries and inventories Revisions to 2026/27 global balance estimates Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming progressively more uncertain. The current season still has the benefit of record global production, while the next crop cycle faces potentially significant weather and production disruptions. The biggest risk is that several smaller production problems occur simultaneously. A weaker Indian crop combined with lower Thai production and reduced Brazilian sugar output could quickly eliminate the relatively small projected global deficit and push the market into a much tighter balance. For now, however, the physical market has not fully reflected that potential tightening. Demand Outlook Demand is currently the weakest part of the sugar fundamental picture. Large potential deliveries against the October contract indicate that physical buyers have not been aggressively taking supply at prevailing futures prices. This is limiting the market's ability to respond immediately to bullish production developments. The key change would be evidence that commercial buyers are returning to the market and that physical premiums are strengthening. If demand improves while production forecasts continue to decline, sugar could transition from a weather-driven market into a genuine supply-deficit market. Currency Hedger View Sugar is particularly sensitive to currency movements because the major producing and exporting countries operate in different currencies while global sugar is predominantly priced in U.S. dollars. The Brazilian real, Indian rupee and Thai baht can therefore influence producer selling economics and export competitiveness. For businesses exposed to international sugar purchases or sales, changes in the U.S. dollar can alter the effective local-currency cost of sugar even when the futures price itself remains relatively stable. Currency Hedger is monitoring the interaction between sugar prices, crude oil, the U.S. dollar, the Brazilian real and global agricultural supply conditions. For commercial businesses, managing the currency component alongside the underlying commodity exposure can provide greater visibility over future transaction costs. Coming Sessions The immediate focus will remain on physical demand and whether the weakness surrounding the October contract continues to weigh on futures. Beyond the immediate demand picture, traders will increasingly shift attention toward the next production cycle. India's rainfall performance, Thailand's crop outlook, Brazilian Center-South production and the potential impact of El Niño will determine whether the projected 2026/27 deficit becomes larger or disappears. Crude oil will also remain important because stronger energy prices can alter Brazilian mills' incentives between sugar and ethanol. The next major move in sugar is therefore likely to depend on whether weak current demand or tightening future supply fundamentals becomes the dominant market narrative. Today Markets View Sugar prices are currently under pressure because physical demand is weak, but the underlying forward supply picture is becoming increasingly constructive. Record global production and high inventories continue to provide a bearish counterweight, yet the combination of India's poor monsoon, declining Thai production expectations, weaker Brazilian output and El Niño risk creates the possibility of a materially tighter market ahead. The market is therefore entering a period where near-term weakness could coexist with increasing longer-term supply risk. The critical signal will be whether physical demand begins to improve at lower prices before production estimates deteriorate further. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger International commodity transactions can carry significant currency exposure in addition to the underlying commodity price. Currency Hedger helps businesses assess and manage foreign-exchange requirements associated with international purchasing, selling and cross-border payments. Whether your business is exposed to USD, EUR, GBP, BRL, INR, THB or other currencies, understanding the relationship between commodity markets and FX can help improve visibility over future transaction costs. Visit currencyhedger.com to discuss your international currency requirements. General Disclaimer General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Forex Trading

October 1, 2026

Bank of Japan Signals Faster Rate Hikes as Inflation Pressures and Yen Weakness Reshape the Japanese Yen Outlook

The Bank of Japan is moving into a more active phase of monetary tightening, with policymakers increasingly supporting further interest-rate increases as underlying inflation approaches the 2% target and upside price risks remain elevated. The September meeting summary shows a clear shift in the policy debate. Some policymakers argued that the BoJ should accelerate rate increases if inflation begins moving above its outlook, while others supported bringing the policy rate closer to a neutral level relatively soon. The current policy rate stands at 1.25%, following the September increase. For the Japanese yen, the key issue is no longer simply whether the BoJ will continue tightening, but how quickly rates can move higher relative to markets and overseas interest rates. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingBoJ Policy Rate1.25%Timing and pace of the next increaseInflationUnderlying inflation approaching the 2% targetEvidence of persistent domestic price pressureBoJ GuidanceIncreasing support for further tighteningWhether policymakers signal a faster hiking cycleJapanese YenRemains sensitive to rate differentialsUSD/JPY reaction to changing BoJ expectationsCrude OilElevated amid Middle East tensionsImported inflation and energy costsU.S. Rate DifferentialStill significantWhether BoJ tightening can narrow the gapNext BoJ MeetingOctober 29–30Updated inflation outlook and policy guidance Current Japanese Yen and BoJ Price Action The BoJ's policy rate is now at 1.25%, with the central bank saying it will guide the overnight call rate around that level. The next scheduled monetary policy meeting is October 29–30. The latest policy discussion is important because the BoJ is increasingly focused on preventing inflation from moving above its 2% objective rather than simply encouraging inflation to rise toward the target. One view in the September opinions was that if inflation continues to develop in line with the target and financial conditions remain accommodative, the Bank should continue raising rates. Another explicitly argued that the pace of hikes should accelerate if signs emerge that prices are deviating above target. That creates a more significant potential catalyst for the yen. If markets begin pricing a faster BoJ tightening cycle, the interest-rate differential supporting the dollar against the yen could begin to narrow. Inflation and Monetary Policy The BoJ's assessment suggests that underlying inflation is now approaching the level where maintaining price stability becomes more important than supporting the initial rise in inflation. This represents an important change in the policy framework. The central bank has indicated that it wants to avoid allowing underlying inflation to move materially above 2%, while also preserving enough policy room to respond to future economic shocks. The implication for markets is that incoming inflation, wage and economic-activity data can have a greater influence on rate expectations. A stronger inflation profile could bring forward expectations for another rate increase, while weaker economic activity could encourage the BoJ to proceed more gradually. Energy Prices and Imported Inflation Crude oil remains another important variable for Japan. Japan is heavily exposed to imported energy costs, meaning a sustained increase in crude prices can feed directly into consumer and corporate costs. The September policy opinions specifically highlighted upside risks from overseas developments and the need for the BoJ to respond flexibly to changes in the external environment. For the yen, this creates a complicated relationship. Higher oil prices can increase inflationary pressure and strengthen the case for BoJ tightening, but they can also increase Japan's import bill and create additional pressure on the currency if the yen remains weak. Yen Interest-Rate Differential The Japanese yen continues to trade against a substantial interest-rate differential with major overseas economies. Even with the BoJ at 1.25%, Japanese rates remain relatively low compared with U.S. rates. This means that a BoJ tightening cycle alone may not be sufficient to generate a sustained yen appreciation unless the market also sees a narrowing in overseas-Japan rate differentials. The yen has remained vulnerable despite the recent BoJ rate increase, illustrating how important expectations surrounding future policy are compared with the headline rate itself. Bullish Sentiment Faster BoJ tightening expectations could increase demand for the yen as markets price a shorter interval between rate increases. Underlying inflation near 2% gives policymakers greater justification for reducing monetary accommodation. Higher domestic yields could gradually improve the relative attractiveness of Japanese assets. A narrowing interest-rate differential would reduce one of the structural pressures that has supported USD/JPY. Official concern about yen weakness could reinforce expectations that Japanese authorities want to prevent another sustained depreciation cycle. Bearish Sentiment The U.S.-Japan rate differential remains substantial, limiting the immediate impact of a 1.25% BoJ policy rate. Higher crude prices could increase Japan's import costs and weigh on the yen even while simultaneously increasing domestic inflation. Japanese bond-market volatility could complicate the transmission of monetary tightening and affect domestic investor allocation. A weaker Japanese economy could make the BoJ more cautious about accelerating the hiking cycle. Fiscal and monetary-policy expectations remain important for the yen, meaning rate hikes alone may not determine the currency's direction. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major question for the yen is whether the BoJ's increasingly hawkish language becomes an actual acceleration in policy. A faster sequence of rate increases would represent a stronger catalyst for the yen, particularly if U.S. yields simultaneously soften. Conversely, if Japanese inflation moderates or economic growth loses momentum while overseas yields remain elevated, the market could continue to maintain a wide rate differential and limit the yen's upside. The October BoJ meeting therefore becomes an important potential turning point, particularly because the Bank is scheduled to update its economic and inflation assessment. The market will be watching for: Changes to the BoJ's inflation forecasts Any indication that another rate increase is approaching Comments on the neutral rate Wage and services inflation Household consumption Japanese government bond yields U.S. Treasury yields USD/JPY reaction to changing rate expectations Monetary Policy Outlook The September opinions indicate that the BoJ is becoming more comfortable with continued policy normalization. One policymaker argued that the policy rate should be moved closer to its approximate goal relatively soon, while another said the pace of increases should accelerate if inflation begins to exceed expectations. This does not establish a fixed schedule of rate increases, but it does increase the importance of every major inflation and economic release. The market is therefore moving from a question of whether Japan can normalize rates toward a question of how quickly normalization can proceed without damaging economic activity. Demand and Economic Outlook Japanese domestic demand will remain an important counterweight to the inflation story. If wage growth, consumer spending and corporate activity remain sufficiently strong, the BoJ has greater scope to raise rates without creating an abrupt economic slowdown. If economic momentum deteriorates, however, policymakers may prefer a slower pace even if inflation remains above target. The balance between persistent inflation and economic resilience will therefore be central to the yen outlook through the coming meetings. Currency Hedger View The BoJ's latest communication is increasingly important for businesses with Japanese yen exposure because the currency could become more sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations. For companies with JPY receivables, JPY payables or cross-border cash flows, a faster BoJ tightening cycle could produce larger currency moves as markets reassess the long-standing yen interest-rate differential. Currency Hedger is watching the interaction between BoJ policy, U.S. interest rates, Japanese inflation, crude oil and USD/JPY rather than treating the BoJ rate decision in isolation. For businesses managing international currency exposure, the key issue is not simply where the yen trades today, but how future policy changes could alter the cost of planned transactions. Coming Sessions The next phase of the yen market is likely to be driven by incoming inflation and economic data ahead of the October BoJ meeting. Traders will be watching whether Japanese price pressures remain sufficiently persistent to support the case for another rate increase, while global bond yields will determine how quickly the interest-rate differential can narrow. A combination of stronger Japanese inflation, firm wages and softer overseas yields would increase the focus on faster BoJ tightening. Conversely, weaker Japanese growth combined with elevated U.S. yields could keep the yen under pressure despite the Bank's increasingly hawkish policy language. Today Markets View The BoJ is entering a more important stage of its normalization cycle. The September policy opinions show that some policymakers now see a case for bringing rates closer to neutral relatively soon, while faster tightening could be considered if inflation begins to overshoot. For the yen, the critical variable is whether these views translate into a faster sequence of actual rate increases. The October policy meeting, inflation data and global bond yields will therefore be central to the next major move in USD/JPY and broader yen markets. Analysis Louis Roche – Currency Hedger Currency Hedger Managing currency exposure requires more than monitoring exchange rates. Currency Hedger combines market analysis with corporate FX solutions to help businesses assess currency exposure, plan transactions and manage international payments. Whether your business has regular JPY, USD, EUR, GBP or other currency requirements, understanding the potential impact of central-bank policy and global markets can help improve visibility around future FX costs. Visit currencyhedger.com to discuss your international currency requirements. General Disclaimer General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Cotton Futures Slide as Stronger Oil and Dollar Weigh on Prices

Cotton futures are under pressure as prices move lower across the futures curve, while a firmer US dollar and higher crude oil add competing influences to the market. The latest decline leaves December cotton around 78.52 cents per pound, with March 2027 futures holding above 81 cents. Physical cotton indicators are providing a mixed signal. The Cotlook A Index has strengthened to 93.35 cents, while ICE certified stocks remain at 28,064 bales. The Adjusted World Price has also moved lower, highlighting continued pressure across parts of the physical and export market. The coming sessions will focus on whether futures can stabilize around current levels, the direction of the US dollar, energy prices and evidence of underlying demand. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingDecember CottonAround 78.52¢/lbAbility to hold above recent lowsMarch 2027 CottonAround 81.38¢/lbForward demand expectationsCotlook A Index93.35¢/lbPhysical-market demandICE Certified Stocks28,064 balesAvailability of deliverable suppliesAdjusted World Price66.09¢/lbUS competitiveness and producer economicsUS DollarSlightly firmerExport competitivenessCrude OilHigherProduction and input-cost expectations Current Cotton Price Action Cotton futures are weakening across the curve, with December around 78.52 cents per pound and March 2027 near 81.38 cents. The decline suggests that traders remain cautious about near-term demand and are assessing the market against broader commodity and macroeconomic conditions. The premium in March futures compared with December indicates that the market is still pricing a relatively firmer forward environment, but sustained buying will likely require clearer evidence of improving demand. The next important technical consideration is whether December cotton can establish support around current levels or whether additional selling develops if demand indicators remain weak. Physical Cotton Market The Cotlook A Index has moved back to 93.35 cents per pound, providing an important contrast with the lower futures market. The difference between futures and physical-market values indicates that the underlying cash market has not weakened to the same extent as futures. ICE certified cotton stocks remain unchanged at 28,064 bales. While this is not an exceptionally large deliverable stock position, the market will continue watching certified inventory for evidence of whether readily deliverable supplies are becoming tighter or more abundant. The Adjusted World Price has fallen to 66.09 cents per pound, down 283 points over the latest reported period. This lower AWP can influence producer economics and the competitiveness of US cotton in international markets. Supply Outlook The supply side remains dependent on US crop development, harvest progress and global production expectations. Certified stocks remain relatively limited, but the futures market is currently paying more attention to demand and macroeconomic conditions than to an immediate physical shortage. As the market moves through the harvest period, traders will watch production estimates and actual cotton quality closely. Any evidence of lower-than-expected production could provide renewed support, particularly if demand remains stable. Demand and Export Market Demand remains one of the most important variables for the next phase of the cotton market. The relatively high Cotlook A Index compared with futures suggests that physical-market pricing remains firmer than the futures market would imply. However, sustained futures gains will likely require stronger evidence of mill demand and export buying. The US dollar is another key variable. A stronger dollar can make US cotton more expensive for international buyers, potentially creating additional pressure on export demand. Conversely, a weaker dollar could improve US competitiveness and provide support to futures. Crude Oil and Cotton Crude oil prices are moving higher, adding another factor for cotton traders to monitor. Higher energy prices can increase costs across the textile and agricultural supply chains, including transportation, processing and synthetic-fiber production. For cotton, higher oil prices can also affect the relative economics of polyester and other synthetic fibers. If synthetic-fiber costs rise alongside crude oil, cotton can become relatively more competitive in some applications. The relationship is therefore not straightforward, but energy prices remain an important component of the broader textile-demand picture. Bullish Sentiment Firm physical-market values — The Cotlook A Index remains substantially above the futures market. Limited certified stocks — ICE certified inventories remain at 28,064 bales. Potential US supply risks — Crop production or quality surprises could tighten the balance. Higher crude oil — Rising energy costs could improve cotton's relative competitiveness against synthetic fibers. Potential dollar weakness — A softer US dollar would improve the competitiveness of US cotton exports. Bearish Sentiment Futures are weakening — Selling pressure remains evident across the curve. Demand uncertainty — Traders still require stronger evidence of sustained mill and export demand. Stronger US dollar — A firmer dollar can reduce the competitiveness of US cotton internationally. Lower Adjusted World Price — The decline highlights continued pressure in the broader US cotton pricing structure. Macro uncertainty — Weakness across risk-sensitive commodities could continue limiting speculative buying. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next phase of the cotton market will depend heavily on whether futures can stabilize while physical prices remain firm. A continued premium in the Cotlook A Index would indicate that the physical market is retaining underlying support. If export and mill demand begin improving at the same time, futures could receive additional buying interest. However, if the dollar remains firm and demand fails to improve, cotton could remain under pressure despite relatively firm physical-market prices. Traders will also be watching the relationship between December and March futures. A stable or strengthening forward curve would suggest that the market is beginning to price a tighter or more balanced future supply-demand environment. Currency Hedger View The US dollar is particularly important for the cotton market because international cotton trade is predominantly priced in dollars. For mills, textile manufacturers and international cotton buyers, changes in the dollar can directly affect the local-currency cost of purchasing cotton. A stronger dollar can increase the cost of US cotton for overseas buyers and potentially weigh on export competitiveness. A weaker dollar can have the opposite effect, making dollar-denominated cotton more accessible to international buyers. For businesses purchasing or selling cotton across borders, managing the currency exposure alongside the underlying commodity exposure can therefore be an important part of protecting margins. Currency Hedger provides businesses with international FX solutions and market guidance to help manage currency exposure, plan international payments and navigate changing exchange-rate conditions. Coming Sessions Cotton traders will be watching several key factors: Futures support: Whether December cotton can stabilize around current levels. Physical market: Whether the Cotlook A Index continues to outperform futures. Certified stocks: Whether ICE deliverable inventories begin changing materially. US dollar: Further dollar strength could create additional pressure on export competitiveness. Crude oil: Higher energy prices could influence textile economics and cotton's relationship with synthetic fibers. Demand: Evidence of stronger mill consumption and export buying would provide an important bullish catalyst. The cotton market remains caught between relatively firm physical-market values and weaker futures sentiment. The next significant move is likely to depend on whether demand begins validating the strength seen in physical prices or whether macroeconomic pressure continues to dominate futures trading. Today Markets View Cotton futures remain under pressure, but the physical market is presenting a more resilient picture. The Cotlook A Index remains well above futures while certified stocks are relatively limited, suggesting that the current decline is not being driven solely by an immediate physical surplus. The US dollar is an important downside risk, particularly for export demand, while higher crude oil could provide some longer-term support through its influence on synthetic-fiber costs. The key signal for the coming sessions will be whether physical-market strength begins feeding back into futures demand. Until that happens, traders are likely to remain focused on the dollar, export demand, crop fundamentals and broader commodity sentiment. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For cotton businesses trading internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on purchase costs, export revenue and operating margins. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international FX exposure and plan currency requirements alongside changing commodity-market conditions. Manage your currency exposure with Currency Hedger — currencyhedger.com. General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Energies

October 1, 2026

European Natural Gas Prices Retreat as Tight Storage and Hormuz Risk Keep Winter Supply in Focus

European natural gas prices are easing after a sharp previous advance, but the broader market remains highly sensitive to Middle East developments, LNG availability and Europe's relatively low storage levels heading into winter. Gas prices remain substantially higher than at the start of the year, reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impact on LNG flows. European storage is also below its five-year seasonal average, leaving the market with less of a buffer should supply disruptions persist or winter demand strengthen. At the same time, softer Chinese LNG demand could provide some relief by freeing additional cargoes for European buyers. The balance between constrained global supply and potentially weaker Asian demand is likely to remain central to European gas pricing. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingEuropean GasBelow €72/MWh after a sharp riseWhether the recent pullback develops into a deeper correctionStorageAround 71% fullGap versus the five-year seasonal averageFive-Year AverageAround 87%Size of Europe's seasonal storage deficitGermanyJust above 57% fullReplenishment pace ahead of winterStrait of HormuzSupply route remains uncertainLNG transit and geopolitical developmentsQatar LNGForce majeure extended for some deliveriesDuration and scale of supply disruptionsChinese DemandLNG imports expected to decline againPotential cargo availability for Europe Current Natural Gas Price Action European natural gas prices have moved back below €72/MWh following a sharp increase, creating some short-term relief for buyers. However, the decline does not yet remove the broader supply risk. Prices remain highly responsive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz because the route is important for global LNG flows. The market has already priced a substantial increase in geopolitical and supply risk this year. As a result, fresh developments concerning LNG shipments, regional tensions or negotiations involving Iran could produce significant volatility. The immediate question is whether the current decline represents profit-taking following the recent rally or the beginning of a more sustained easing in risk premiums. European Gas Storage Storage remains one of the most important bullish factors. European gas inventories are around 71% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of approximately 87%. Germany's storage level is even lower, at just above 57%. The deficit matters because Europe is approaching the period when heating demand can begin drawing down inventories. A relatively low starting point means that the market has less flexibility if winter demand proves stronger than expected or if LNG imports are disrupted. The pace of storage injections and withdrawals will therefore remain an important indicator of whether Europe can rebuild a sufficient winter supply cushion. LNG Supply and Strait of Hormuz Risk The Strait of Hormuz remains a major source of uncertainty for the global LNG market. Some Gulf LNG cargoes have continued to transit the route, but current volumes remain insufficient to fully relieve global supply tightness. The market is therefore likely to react strongly to any evidence that transit volumes are increasing or, alternatively, that shipments are being disrupted further. QatarEnergy's extension of force majeure affecting LNG deliveries to Italy's Edison through December adds another layer of uncertainty for European buyers. Other supply arrangements in markets such as Pakistan have also been extended, reinforcing the importance of cargo availability across different regions. Global LNG Demand Softer Chinese LNG demand provides one of the few clear sources of potential relief. Chinese imports are expected to decline for a second consecutive month. If this trend continues, some LNG cargoes that might otherwise have been absorbed by Asian buyers could become available to European markets. That could help narrow Europe's supply deficit and reduce upward pressure on prices. However, the extent of the relief will depend on how much LNG becomes available and whether geopolitical restrictions continue limiting flows through key shipping routes. Bullish Sentiment Low European storage — Inventories remain significantly below the five-year seasonal average. Winter demand risk — Colder weather could accelerate withdrawals and increase competition for available LNG. Hormuz uncertainty — Continued uncertainty around the major LNG transit route keeps a geopolitical premium in prices. Restricted Gulf LNG flows — Current transit volumes remain insufficient to eliminate global supply tightness. Extended force majeure — Ongoing disruptions to some LNG deliveries reduce flexibility for European buyers. Bearish Sentiment Softer Chinese LNG demand — Lower Asian demand could release additional cargoes for Europe. Current Gulf cargoes are still moving — Continued transit provides some evidence that supply has not been completely interrupted. Recent price gains may encourage profit-taking — A sharp rally increases the potential for short-term corrections. Storage remains substantial in absolute terms — Although below the seasonal average, European inventories are not yet critically depleted. Warmer weather would reduce immediate demand — A mild start to the heating season could slow withdrawals and improve the supply balance. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major move in European gas is likely to depend on whether geopolitical risk translates into an actual reduction in LNG flows. If the Strait of Hormuz remains operational and Chinese demand continues to soften, additional LNG could become available to Europe. That would ease some of the current supply pressure and could allow prices to move lower. The opposite scenario would be more significant. Any sustained disruption to Gulf LNG exports combined with colder European weather could quickly expose the storage deficit and increase competition for replacement cargoes. The market is therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to headlines while storage levels remain below normal. Supply Outlook European supply remains vulnerable to disruptions in global LNG flows. The immediate supply picture could improve if Chinese demand continues to weaken and more LNG cargoes are redirected toward Europe. However, the European market still has less storage cover than normal for this stage of the year. The ability to rebuild inventories before sustained winter withdrawals begin will be crucial. If injections remain strong and LNG flows normalize, the current supply premium could gradually decline. If replenishment disappoints, the market could remain vulnerable to renewed price spikes. Demand Outlook European gas demand will increasingly depend on weather as the heating season approaches. A mild winter would reduce withdrawals and provide additional time for inventories to recover. A colder-than-normal period would have the opposite effect, increasing consumption while storage remains below its historical seasonal average. Industrial demand is another factor to monitor. Elevated gas prices can continue influencing industrial consumption and competitiveness, potentially limiting demand if prices remain high. Currency Hedger View Natural gas is priced internationally in US dollars in many LNG transactions, while European businesses generally generate revenue and manage costs in euros. This creates an additional layer of exposure when European gas prices rise alongside movements in the EUR/USD exchange rate. A weaker euro can increase the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated energy purchases, potentially amplifying the impact of higher global gas prices on European businesses. Conversely, a stronger euro can provide some relief even when underlying dollar-denominated commodity prices remain elevated. For businesses with significant energy exposure, monitoring gas prices and currency markets together can therefore provide a more complete picture of the potential impact on costs and margins. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure, plan FX requirements and assess the potential impact of exchange-rate movements on international payments and commodity-related costs. Coming Sessions The European gas market will remain focused on several key developments: Strait of Hormuz: Whether LNG transit volumes increase or face further disruption. European storage: Whether inventories can continue moving toward normal seasonal levels. Chinese demand: Whether weaker LNG imports release additional cargoes for Europe. Qatar LNG: Developments surrounding extended delivery disruptions. Weather: The severity of the approaching European heating season. The immediate price decline provides some relief, but the broader market remains exposed to a combination of below-average storage, uncertain LNG supply and geopolitical risk. A normalization of LNG flows and softer Asian demand could create further downside pressure, while renewed disruption or colder weather could quickly restore upward momentum. Today Markets View European natural gas remains a market where the supply buffer is more important than the latest daily price move. The decline below €72/MWh reduces some of the immediate pressure, but European storage remains below its seasonal norm and the global LNG market continues to face uncertainty around key shipping routes. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by the interaction between LNG availability, European storage, Chinese demand and Middle East developments. Traders should expect volatility to remain elevated while uncertainty around the supply route persists. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For European businesses exposed to energy costs, movements in natural gas prices and foreign exchange rates can interact directly. Currency Hedger provides specialist FX solutions and market guidance for businesses managing international currency requirements, helping them understand and manage the potential impact of exchange-rate movements on cross-border payments and international costs. Manage your currency exposure with Currency Hedger — currencyhedger.com. General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

October 1, 2026

Live Cattle Futures Rally as Tight Supplies and Lower Feed Costs Support Prices

Live cattle futures are pushing higher as firm cash cattle values, restricted market-ready supplies and significantly lower year-on-year slaughter continue to support the market. Feeder cattle are also gaining strongly as weaker corn prices improve feed-cost expectations and support feedlot economics. The fundamental picture remains underpinned by tight cattle availability, while mixed boxed beef values indicate that wholesale demand remains selective. The coming sessions will therefore focus on whether cash cattle can maintain current levels and whether beef demand can continue supporting elevated prices. Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWhat Traders Are WatchingLive CattleFutures are higher across the curveWhether cash strength continuesCash CattleLive trade around $219–$219.50; dressed around $348–$350Confirmation of firm cash valuesFeeder CattleFutures are advancing sharplyImpact of lower corn pricesChoice BeefAround $382.79Continued wholesale demandSelect BeefAround $360.59 and lowerEvidence of consumer price sensitivityCattle SlaughterAbout 301,000 head for the week so farContinued supply restrictionFeed CostsCorn prices are weakeningSupport for feeder cattle margins Current Cattle Price Action Live cattle futures are strengthening across the forward curve, with October around $218.68, December near $222.70 and February 2027 around $225.08. The strength across deferred contracts reflects continued expectations for tight cattle supplies. The market is maintaining a premium in forward months as traders assess how restricted cattle availability could affect cash prices and beef production. Feeder cattle are showing even stronger gains. October futures are around $336.43, November near $334.30 and January 2027 around $327.68. Lower corn prices are an important part of this move because cheaper feed improves the economics of placing and feeding cattle, potentially increasing demand for feeder supplies. Cash Cattle and Supply Cash cattle remain firm, with reported dressed business around $348–$350 and live sales around $219–$219.50. The latest Fed Cattle Exchange auction had no completed sales from 1,586 head offered, with bids around $224 live and $345 dressed. The lack of transactions indicates that buyers and sellers remain apart at current levels. The bigger fundamental factor is cattle availability. Federally inspected slaughter is estimated at approximately 301,000 head for the week so far, around 49,000 head below the comparable period last year. That substantial year-on-year reduction continues to restrict beef production and provides an important underlying support for live cattle prices. Beef Production and Wholesale Market Wholesale beef prices are mixed. Choice boxed beef is around $382.79, slightly higher, while Select is around $360.59 and has moved lower. The divergence suggests that demand remains stronger for higher-quality beef than for Select product. For cattle futures, the next important question is whether wholesale beef prices can continue absorbing high cattle costs. If Choice values remain firm while supplies remain restricted, packers may continue competing for available cattle. Conversely, broader weakness across boxed beef could increase resistance to further cash cattle increases. Bullish Sentiment Restricted cattle supplies — Slaughter remains substantially below last year's comparable level. Firm cash prices — Live and dressed cash trade continues to provide fundamental support. Lower feed costs — Weakness in corn improves feedlot economics and supports feeder cattle. Strong feeder cattle demand — Lower feed costs can encourage additional interest in feeder supplies. Firm forward futures — Deferred live cattle contracts remain supported by expectations of continued supply tightness. Bearish Sentiment Mixed boxed beef values — Select beef weakness indicates that demand is not uniformly strong. No Fed Cattle Exchange sales — The latest auction produced no completed transactions, highlighting price resistance. Elevated cattle prices — High wholesale and cash cattle values could eventually increase consumer resistance. Packer margin pressure — Rising cattle costs without equivalent wholesale gains could make packers more defensive. Profit-taking risk — Strong recent futures gains leave room for short-term corrections if fresh buying slows. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major signal will come from cash cattle trade. If cash values continue around current levels, the market will have further confirmation that tight supplies are translating into sustained pricing power. This could keep live cattle futures supported, particularly in deferred contracts. Feeder cattle will remain closely linked to corn. Continued weakness in feed costs would improve feedlot margins and could maintain demand for feeder cattle. However, traders need to watch boxed beef closely. A sustained deterioration in wholesale values could eventually make it more difficult for packers to justify higher cash cattle bids. Supply Outlook The supply side remains the strongest fundamental feature of the market. Slaughter is running significantly below the comparable period last year, reducing beef production and limiting the number of market-ready cattle available to processors. Unless slaughter begins recovering materially, the restricted supply environment should continue providing support to cash and futures prices. The market will therefore remain sensitive to feedlot inventories, placements, market-ready cattle and weekly slaughter numbers. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed by beef grade. Choice beef continues to show resilience, while Select values are under greater pressure. This indicates that buyers remain active but are also sensitive to price and product quality. For cattle futures to maintain their current strength, the wholesale market will need to continue absorbing elevated beef prices. A combination of firm Choice demand and restricted cattle supplies would remain supportive. A broader decline in boxed beef values would introduce greater downside risk. Currency Hedger View Currency movements can have an indirect influence on the cattle market through feed costs, export competitiveness and the purchasing power of international beef buyers. For US cattle producers and meat exporters, movements in the US dollar remain particularly important. A stronger dollar can make US beef more expensive for overseas buyers, potentially affecting export demand, while a weaker dollar can improve the competitiveness of US beef in international markets. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, commodities, global trade flows and macroeconomic conditions to help businesses understand how currency movements can affect international pricing and margins. For cattle-market participants with international exposure, managing currency risk can be particularly relevant when revenue or costs are denominated in different currencies. Currency Hedger provides businesses with access to international currency solutions designed to help manage FX exposure, plan currency requirements and navigate changing exchange-rate conditions. Coming Sessions The cattle market will remain focused on four key areas: Cash cattle: Confirmation of whether live and dressed prices can hold current levels. Slaughter: Whether weekly slaughter remains substantially below year-ago levels. Boxed beef: Whether Choice strength can offset weakness in Select. Corn: Whether lower feed costs continue supporting feeder cattle. The fundamental structure remains driven by tight cattle supplies, while lower feed costs are providing additional support to feeders. The balance between firm cash cattle and mixed wholesale beef demand will determine whether the current strength can extend further. Today Markets View The cattle market remains supported by restricted supplies and firm cash prices, with lower corn adding a second fundamental support through improved feeder-cattle economics. The next stage of the market will depend heavily on cash trade and wholesale beef demand. Continued strength in cash cattle alongside reduced slaughter would reinforce the current supply-driven structure, while broader weakness in boxed beef could increase resistance. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Currency Hedger For businesses exposed to international beef trade, currency movements can influence export competitiveness, imported costs and ultimately margins. Currency Hedger provides specialist FX solutions and market guidance for businesses managing international currency requirements. Manage your currency exposure with Currency Hedger — currencyhedger.com. General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Gold edges lower as Fed hike bets and Middle East jitters underpin USD

Gold bulls remain on the sidelines amid bets for at least one Fed rate hike by the end of this year. Retreating US bond yields keep the USD capped below a two-month high, supporting the commodity. Traders now look to the US PCE data for some impetus ahead of the key US NFP report on Friday. Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday, reversing part of the previous day's modest recovery gains from the $4,100 neighborhood, or the lowest level since August 5, touched earlier this week. The downside, however, seems cushioned as traders keenly await important US macro data before placing fresh directional bets on the commodity. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge – will be published later today, along with the final Q2 GDP print. Traders this week will also confront the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday and the popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members will be looked upon for more cues about the US central bank's future policy path, which will drive the USD and provide fresh impetus to the Gold. Dollar support persists as US data and yields keep Fed expectations elevated Strategists at OCBC argue that the near-term focus for markets remains squarely on US labour data, with “this week's US labour market report” flagged as “the key event risk.” They note that Bloomberg consensus “expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 90,000 in September, down from 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%.” While acknowledging Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on “the four-week average of initial jobless claims as a timely indicator of labour market conditions,” OCBC strategists stress that “payrolls remain the market's preferred measure of labor market health.” Against this backdrop, OCBC strategists reiterate that “our base case remains for a moderate USD rally into year-end.” They point out that “markets are currently pricing almost four Fed rate hikes over the next year, which appears overly aggressive unless demand-driven inflation re-emerges as the dominant force behind price pressures,” adding that “wage growth and rental inflation will be critical indicators to watch.” In the meantime, US Treasury yields pulled back from multiyear highs amid the overnight decline in crude oil prices to a three-week low and dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said the US central bank need not rush its next move. Furthermore, the Conference Board reported on Tuesday that the US Consumer Confidence Index missed estimates and dropped to 81.9 in September, marking its lowest reading since 2014. This, in turn, keeps the US Dollar (USD) below a two-month high and could act as a tailwind for gold. Nevertheless, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in over a 90% chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs again by the end of this year. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff might continue to underpin the safe-haven Greenback, which might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the XAU/USD pair. In fact, hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the US-Iran conflict faded after US President Donald Trump turned down a seven-day ceasefire proposal from Iran. Adding to this, Qatari efforts to broker a US-Iran breakthrough have made little progress this week. In further developments, US officials believe that Trump could order a return to major combat after the midterm elections. This keeps the risk of renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East firmly on the table. This backs the the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold remains to the downside. However, a convincing break below the $4,100 mark is needed to reaffirm the negative outlook. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The XAU/USD pair finds some support ahead of the $4,100 mark, representing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August rise. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative, hinting at persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests weak momentum rather than oversold conditions. Hence, the 61.8% retracement at $4,227 forms an initial cap ahead of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,307 and the mid-range Fibo. retracement near $4,317. As long as the XAU/USD pair stays under the 200-day EMA, rallies are likely to be limited. Further up, the 38.2% retracement at $4,406 and the 23.6% level at $4,517 reinforce a broader ceiling. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement near $4,100, ahead of the prior swing base at $3,937. A decisive break below this would open the path toward a deeper pullback toward the $3,937 area.

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Markets

September 30, 2026

XAG/USD hangs near eight-week low; bears retain control near $61.00

Silver struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest bounce from its lowest level since August. Traders now look forward to the crucial US PCE Price Index and the Q2 GDP print for a fresh impetus. The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and backs the case for further depreciation. Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers near the $61.75 area during the Asian session on Wednesday, stalling the previous day's recovery from the $60.30 region, or the lowest level since August 5. The white metal currently trades near the $61.00 mark, down around 0.70% for the day, as traders now look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the final US Q2 GDP print for a fresh impetus. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias beneath the $62.20-$62.25 horizontal support breakpoint and the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart at $64.28. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has just turned marginally positive, hinting at only tentative recovery attempts. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 35 stays in weak territory, reinforcing the idea that downside pressure still dominates despite the recent bounce from sub-$61.00 levels. This, in turn, suggests that any rebounds could remain shallow and confront stiff resistance near the $61.80-$61.85 area ahead of the $62.00 mark and the $62.20-$62.25 support-turned-hurdle. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, and a sustained move beyond should pave the way for a move towards testing the 200-period EMA at $64.28. Bulls would need to reclaim it to ease the current bearish structure and open the door toward higher levels. On the downside, the recent price troughs near $60.30 could be the first area where buyers have been attempting to stabilize. This is followed by the $60.00 psychological mark, which, if broken, should pave the way for a fall to the $59.40-$59.35 support before the XAG/USD slides further towards the $59.00 mark. If the metal extends its decline, bears might then aim to challenge the August monthly low, around the $56.60-$56.55 zone, with some intermediate support near the $57.00 round figure. XAG/USD 4-hour chart

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Soybean Futures Rebound as Tighter US Stocks and Lower Brazil Exports Support Prices

Soybean futures are finding renewed buying interest as expectations for tighter US old-crop inventories combine with lower Brazilian export estimates and weather uncertainty across the US Midwest. The market is also approaching an important US Grain Stocks report, where the expected inventory figure is below the previous year's level. US soybean harvest is progressing at the average pace, while crop conditions remain stable. However, wet weather across parts of the Corn Belt could slow fieldwork in the coming days, keeping attention on the pace of physical supply entering the market. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactNovember SoybeansAround $12.98/bushelRecent strength improves short-term momentumUS Harvest17% complete, matching average paceIncreasing supply may limit sustained ralliesCrop Condition58% good to excellentSupports expectations for solid productionUS Soybean StocksExpected near 321 million bushelsBelow last year's 325 million could support pricesUS WeatherHeavy rain expected across parts of the MidwestPotential harvest delays could provide supportBrazil ExportsSeptember estimate near 7.24 MMTLower export expectations may improve US competitivenessSoymealNearbys weaker while deferreds gainMixed product demand signalsSoy OilHigherSupports the soybean complex through stronger product values Current Soybean Price Action Soybean futures are rebounding, with November 2026 soybeans near $12.98 per bushel, January 2027 around $13.13 and March 2027 near $13.22. Nearby cash soybeans are around $12.44¾ per bushel, showing stronger movement than the futures market. The recovery is occurring as traders assess the combination of harvest progress, US inventory expectations and South American export flows. The market is therefore entering a period where physical supply remains important, but inventory data could provide a stronger directional signal. US Soybean Harvest Reaches the Average Pace Around 75% of the US soybean crop has reached the leaf-drop stage, while harvest is now 17% complete. That puts harvest progress in line with the average pace, indicating that producers are moving into the main period of physical soybean availability without a major nationwide delay. The pace of harvesting will remain important because increased deliveries can place seasonal pressure on futures. However, any significant weather disruption could temporarily reduce the amount of new-crop supply reaching elevators and processors. Crop Conditions Remain Stable US soybean crop conditions remain at 58% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous assessment. The Brugler500 index is also holding at 352. Stable crop conditions continue to support expectations for a substantial US soybean crop. As harvest expands, actual yield results will become increasingly important in determining whether current production expectations are confirmed. Without a significant deterioration in field conditions or harvested yields, the market is likely to focus more heavily on inventory and demand signals. Wet Weather Could Slow Harvest Activity The latest seven-day precipitation outlook calls for heavy rainfall across portions of the central and western Corn Belt, while the eastern Corn Belt is expected to become wetter later in the period. For soybeans, rainfall at this stage of the season can create short-term logistical and harvest delays. The longer the wet pattern persists, the greater the potential for concerns about harvest timing and field conditions. For now, the weather outlook represents a potential source of support rather than evidence of a major supply disruption. US Soybean Stocks Could Provide Bullish Support The upcoming Grain Stocks report is particularly important for soybeans because expectations point to inventories of around 321 million bushels at the end of August. If realized, that would be below the 325 million bushels recorded a year earlier. A year-on-year decline in old-crop stocks would provide evidence of continued demand and a relatively tighter starting point for the new marketing year. A significantly lower-than-expected stocks figure could strengthen the market's bullish response, while a larger number could reduce some of the recent buying interest. Brazilian Export Expectations Are Revised Lower Brazilian soybean exports for September are estimated at approximately 7.24 million metric tons, according to ANEC. That represents a reduction of around 0.78 MMT from the previous estimate. Lower Brazilian export flows could provide some additional room for US exporters to compete internationally, particularly if global buyers increase purchases during the US harvest period. Brazil remains a major source of global soybean supply, however, meaning its export availability will continue to be an important factor in determining the balance between US and South American origins. Soymeal and Soy Oil Send Mixed Signals The soybean complex is receiving additional support from strength in soy oil, although soymeal futures are showing a more mixed pattern. Soy oil gains can strengthen the value of the soybean crush and support overall soybean demand, particularly when biofuel economics improve. Soymeal demand remains closely linked to livestock production and feed consumption. Differences between meal and oil performance therefore remain important for determining the overall strength of processor demand. Bullish Sentiment Potentially tighter US stocks: Expected soybean inventories of 321 million bushels would be below the previous year's level. Lower Brazilian export estimates: Reduced September export expectations could improve the competitive position of US soybeans. Wet weather risk: Heavy rainfall across parts of the Midwest could slow harvest activity and temporarily restrict new-crop supply flows. Soy oil strength: Rising soy oil prices provide additional support to soybean crush economics. Strong futures momentum: The rebound across November, January and March contracts indicates renewed buying interest ahead of the US inventory data. Bearish Sentiment Harvest is progressing normally: US soybean harvest is already 17% complete and matching the average pace. Stable crop conditions: The 58% good-to-excellent rating provides no immediate indication of widespread production deterioration. Large new-crop availability: Continued harvest progress will increase physical soybean supplies during the coming weeks. South American supply remains substantial: Brazil continues to provide significant volumes to international buyers despite the lower September export estimate. Yield confirmation remains important: If harvested yields remain close to expectations, the market could face increasing supply pressure as harvest expands. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Soybean prices are approaching an important fundamental test through the US Grain Stocks report. A stocks figure below expectations could reinforce the recent rebound by indicating stronger old-crop demand and a tighter starting balance. Conversely, inventories materially above expectations could shift attention back toward the large incoming US crop and increasing harvest availability. Weather will remain another important variable. Persistent rainfall could support prices by delaying harvest, while a return to favorable field conditions would increase the flow of physical soybeans into the market. The performance of soy oil and soymeal will also help determine the strength of the soybean complex, particularly as processors evaluate crush margins and downstream demand. Supply Outlook US soybean supply is becoming increasingly available as harvest progresses, with 17% already complete. The stable crop rating suggests that the market is not currently pricing in a major production problem. However, harvested yield results will become increasingly important as more fields are brought in. Brazilian export estimates have been reduced, which could provide some near-term support for US export competitiveness. Nevertheless, South American production remains a major component of global supply. Demand Outlook Demand prospects are being supported by the possibility of tighter US stocks and continued international buying. Soybean demand is also closely connected to the livestock feed market through soymeal and to the biofuel sector through soy oil. Strength in soy oil can improve overall crush economics, while meal demand will remain dependent on livestock production and feed consumption. International demand will also be influenced by currency movements, particularly the US dollar relative to the currencies of major soybean buyers and competing exporters. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Soybean futures are entering the next phase with a more constructive short-term tone, but the market still faces substantial new-crop supply. The Grain Stocks report will be the immediate focus. A smaller-than-expected inventory figure could strengthen the rebound and encourage traders to place greater emphasis on demand. A larger figure would likely shift attention back toward harvest progress and the availability of new-crop supplies. Weather could provide additional volatility if heavy rainfall materially slows fieldwork. Beyond the immediate report and weather window, the market will increasingly depend on harvested yields, Brazilian export flows, crush demand and the strength of international buying. Currency Hedger View Soybeans are globally traded in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of international purchasing costs and export competitiveness. A stronger dollar can increase the effective cost of US soybeans for overseas buyers, potentially shifting demand toward competing origins. Conversely, a softer dollar can improve the purchasing power of foreign buyers and support US export competitiveness. For agricultural businesses dealing with international soybean purchases, exports, feed ingredients or oilseed-related transactions, managing the currency component can be just as important as monitoring the underlying commodity price. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Soybean futures are showing renewed strength as traders position around potentially tighter US inventories and lower Brazilian export expectations. The expected 321 million bushel US stocks figure is particularly important because it would represent a modest decline from the previous year despite the approaching new-crop harvest. At the same time, the market is not facing a clear production shortage. Harvest is progressing at the average pace, crop conditions remain stable and US supply is becoming increasingly available. The next direction will therefore depend on whether inventory data confirms stronger demand and tighter old-crop availability, or whether expanding harvest supplies regain control of the market. Weather, Brazilian exports, soy oil and soymeal demand will remain important secondary drivers. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Corn Futures Slip as Harvest Advances and Large US Stocks Weigh on Prices

Corn futures remain under pressure as advancing US harvest activity, expectations for large domestic inventories and a slower Brazilian export outlook weigh on prices. The market is entering a period when increasing physical availability could keep rallies contained, while traders assess whether current supply estimates already reflect the scale of the incoming crop. US harvest progress is now matching the average pace, while crop conditions remain relatively strong. At the same time, forecasts for heavier rainfall across parts of the Corn Belt could slow fieldwork in some areas, creating a near-term weather variable as the market approaches the release of updated US stock data. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactUS Corn FuturesDecember contract near $5.22/bushelPrices remain vulnerable to harvest pressureUS Harvest18% complete, matching the average paceIncreasing physical supply may limit ralliesCrop Maturity72% matureCrop is progressing toward broader availabilityCrop Condition57% good to excellentSupports expectations for solid productionUS Corn StocksSeptember 1 stocks expected near 1.911 billion bushelsLarger inventories could reinforce bearish pressureUS WeatherHeavy rainfall expected across parts of the Corn BeltCould temporarily slow harvestingBrazil ExportsSeptember exports estimated at 5.4 MMTLower export expectations reduce near-term demand supportCurrencyUS dollar remains an important variable for global grain tradeDollar strength can pressure export competitiveness Current Corn Price Action Corn futures are posting modest losses as traders balance harvest pressure against the possibility of temporary weather-related disruptions. December 2026 corn is around $5.22 per bushel, while March 2027 is near $5.36 and May 2027 around $5.43. The relatively narrow movement across the forward contracts suggests the market is still searching for confirmation from the latest US inventory and production data before establishing a stronger directional trend. Nearby cash corn is around $4.79½ per bushel, keeping the physical market closely connected to the expanding harvest. US Harvest Progress Reaches the Average Pace US corn harvest is now 18% complete, matching the average pace for this point in the season. Around 72% of the crop is mature, indicating that a substantial portion of production is moving toward the marketable supply pipeline. The increase in harvested bushels can create seasonal pressure on futures as elevators and producers bring additional supplies into the physical market. Unless demand accelerates sufficiently, increasing availability could continue to limit upside potential. Crop Conditions Remain Supportive US corn crop conditions remain at 57% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous assessment. The Brugler500 index is also unchanged at 347. Stable crop ratings provide little evidence of a major deterioration in production prospects. As a result, the market is likely to remain focused on actual harvested yields and inventory figures rather than significant weather-driven production losses. Rainfall Could Slow Harvest Progress The latest seven-day quantitative precipitation forecast points to heavy rainfall across parts of the central and western Corn Belt, while the eastern Corn Belt is expected to become wetter during the latter part of the period. Additional rainfall could temporarily slow fieldwork, particularly where soils are already carrying substantial moisture. However, unless wet conditions persist for an extended period, the impact may remain primarily a timing issue rather than a major threat to overall production. This makes the next several days important for determining whether weather becomes a genuine supply concern or simply creates short-term harvest delays. US Corn Stocks Remain a Major Market Focus The upcoming Grain Stocks report is expected to provide an important test for current supply assumptions. Market expectations are centered around September 1 US corn stocks of approximately 1.911 billion bushels. That would represent a substantial increase from the 1.551 billion bushels recorded a year earlier, although it would still be modestly below the current USDA estimate for 2025/26 ending stocks. A stocks figure close to expectations could reinforce the view that the US enters the new marketing year with ample availability. A materially smaller number could provide temporary support by tightening the perceived balance sheet. Brazilian Exports Lose Some Momentum Brazilian corn exports for September are currently projected at around 5.4 million metric tons, according to ANEC, representing a reduction of approximately 0.57 MMT from the previous estimate. Brazil remains a major competitor in the international corn market, meaning changes in Brazilian export availability can influence global demand for US supplies. A lower Brazilian export flow could eventually create additional opportunities for US exporters, but near-term competition remains significant while South American supplies continue moving through global markets. Bullish Sentiment Potential harvest delays: Heavy rainfall across parts of the Corn Belt could temporarily slow harvesting and reduce immediate physical supply flows. Large stocks already reflected in expectations: If the Grain Stocks report comes in below expectations, corn could receive support from a tighter-than-anticipated starting inventory position. Strong international demand potential: Lower Brazilian export availability could create additional opportunities for US corn in global markets. Stable crop conditions limit downside surprises: Although supportive crop ratings are generally bearish for prices, any deterioration from current levels could quickly change production expectations. Seasonal demand: Ethanol production, feed demand and export activity can provide additional support as the marketing year develops. Bearish Sentiment Harvest is advancing: With 18% of the crop already harvested and progress matching the average pace, physical availability is increasing. Large expected inventories: September 1 stocks near 1.911 billion bushels would be substantially above the previous year's level. Strong crop conditions: The 57% good-to-excellent rating and unchanged Brugler500 index indicate that production prospects remain relatively stable. Global competition: Brazil continues to supply international markets, limiting the ability of US exporters to capture global demand immediately. Currency pressure: A stronger US dollar can make US corn more expensive for overseas buyers and potentially reduce export competitiveness. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Corn futures are likely to remain sensitive to the interaction between harvest pressure, US inventory data and short-term weather conditions. A larger-than-expected stocks figure would reinforce the perception of abundant supply and could increase selling pressure across the futures curve. Conversely, smaller inventories could encourage traders to reassess the size of available old-crop supplies and provide a short-term lift. Weather will also remain important. If rainfall slows harvest substantially, the market could receive temporary support. If fields remain accessible and harvest continues at or above normal pace, the seasonal supply increase could continue to weigh on prices. Supply Outlook US corn supply is becoming increasingly visible as harvest progresses. With 72% of the crop mature and 18% harvested, the market is moving toward a period of greater physical availability. The key issue will be whether actual harvested yields confirm expectations for a large crop. Continued stable crop conditions suggest that the market currently has limited reason to price in a major production shortfall. Brazilian export projections are also being revised lower, which could modestly improve the competitive position of US corn if the reduction persists. Demand Outlook Demand remains a critical offset to expanding US supply. Domestic ethanol production and livestock feed demand provide a foundation for consumption, while export demand will depend heavily on relative pricing between the US, Brazil and other major suppliers. Currency movements will also influence international purchasing decisions. A stronger dollar can reduce US competitiveness, while a weaker dollar could improve the economics for overseas buyers. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Corn futures are likely to remain driven by the balance between accelerating harvest availability and the possibility of temporary weather disruptions. The Grain Stocks report will provide an important near-term catalyst, particularly if September 1 inventories differ materially from the expected 1.911 billion bushels. At the same time, traders will monitor harvest progress and rainfall across the Corn Belt for evidence of either accelerating supply flows or developing delays. For now, the combination of increasing harvest availability, stable crop conditions and expectations for large inventories keeps the market focused on supply. However, stronger export demand, smaller-than-expected stocks or prolonged wet weather could provide opportunities for prices to stabilize. Currency Hedger View Corn is priced in US dollars, making currency movements an important part of the international supply-and-demand equation. A stronger dollar can raise the effective cost of US corn for overseas buyers, potentially reducing export competitiveness against Brazilian and other origins. For international grain traders, feed manufacturers and agricultural businesses, changes in the dollar can therefore influence purchasing costs even when the underlying corn futures market is relatively stable. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Monitoring the dollar alongside commodity prices can provide a clearer view of the effective cost of international agricultural transactions. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Corn futures remain caught between increasing US physical supply and the potential for short-term disruptions from wet weather. The current harvest pace is not yet creating a significant delay, while stable crop conditions and expectations for large September inventories continue to limit bullish momentum. The next major signal will come from the US Grain Stocks data. A stocks figure close to or above expectations would reinforce the current supply-heavy market structure, while a materially lower figure could trigger a reassessment of available inventories. Looking further ahead, the direction of corn prices will depend increasingly on the pace of harvest, actual yields, export demand and the competitiveness of US supplies against Brazil. Currency movements will remain an important additional factor for global buyers and exporters. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Wheat Futures Hold Mixed as US Planting Lags While Stocks and Global Supply Weigh on Prices

Wheat futures are trading with a mixed tone as traders balance slower US winter wheat planting against expectations for relatively large domestic stocks and ample global availability. Chicago SRW is holding modest gains in nearby contracts, while Kansas City HRW is stronger and Minneapolis spring wheat remains under pressure. The latest US planting data shows winter wheat progress running seven percentage points behind the five-year average, creating a potential weather-related risk as the crop moves into the early stages of development. However, the market is also preparing for quarterly Grain Stocks data, with expectations pointing to substantial inventories despite a year-on-year decline. International demand is providing some support, including a South Korean tender for 100,000 metric tonnes of US wheat, while EU exports remain broadly stable and European wheat stocks are slightly higher. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactDecember CBOT Wheat$6.9275/bushelNearby futures holding firmDecember KC HRW$7.43/bushelStronger regional marketDecember Minneapolis$6.9925/bushelSofter spring wheat toneUS Winter Wheat Planting27% completeSeven points behind five-year averageUS Winter Wheat Emergence8%Early crop development remains closely watchedExpected US Wheat Stocks1.857 billion bushelsLarge inventory remains a bearish factorExpected US Production1.528 billion bushelsOnly marginally lower than previous estimateSouth Korean Tender100,000 MTPotential US export supportEU Wheat Exports6.81 MMTBroadly unchanged year-on-yearEU Wheat Stocks11.4 MMTSlightly higher year-on-year Current Wheat Price Action The wheat complex is showing a divided performance across the major US exchanges. December CBOT wheat closed at $6.9275 per bushel, up 4 cents, while March 2027 futures gained 3.5 cents to $7.07. Kansas City HRW futures are also firmer, with December at $7.43 and March at $7.5575. Minneapolis spring wheat is weaker, with December at $6.9925 and March at $7.20. The different performance between the exchanges reflects regional supply and crop-development considerations, while the broader market remains focused on upcoming US inventory data and export demand. US Winter Wheat Planting Is Behind Normal US winter wheat planting has reached 27%, but progress is seven percentage points behind the five-year average. Only 8% of the crop has emerged so far, leaving the market highly sensitive to weather conditions during the remainder of the planting and establishment period. The slower planting pace is not automatically bullish, but it creates an additional variable for traders. Continued delays could increase concerns about establishment, winter hardiness and eventual yield potential. If planting accelerates over the coming weeks, some of that risk premium could fade. US Wheat Stocks Remain a Key Market Test Quarterly Grain Stocks data is becoming the next major catalyst for wheat prices. Market expectations are centred on September 1 wheat stocks of approximately 1.857 billion bushels. If realized, that would represent a decline of about 277 million bushels from the previous year. Although the year-on-year decline is supportive from a balance-sheet perspective, the absolute level of stocks remains substantial. The market will therefore focus not only on the size of the decline but also on how the inventory figure compares with expectations. US Production Estimates Remain Broadly Stable Expected US wheat production is around 1.528 billion bushels, only 3 million bushels below the previous estimate. Hard Red Winter wheat production is expected to remain at 463 million bushels, while SRW production is projected at 288 million. White wheat is expected to decline slightly to 239 million bushels, while spring wheat production is projected at 472 million. The relatively limited change in production expectations means the upcoming stocks data may have a greater immediate influence on the market. South Korean Tender Provides Export Support A South Korean importer is seeking 100,000 metric tonnes of wheat from the United States, providing a potential source of near-term export demand. Asian buying is important for US wheat because stronger tenders can help improve export commitments and absorb domestic supplies. The market will watch the result of the tender closely, particularly whether US-origin wheat wins a significant share of the purchase. EU Wheat Exports Remain Stable EU wheat exports from July 1 through September 27 are estimated at 6.81 million metric tonnes, only slightly above the comparable level last year. EU wheat stocks are estimated at 11.4 million tonnes, up around 0.1 million tonnes, while production remains unchanged at 124.2 million tonnes. The relatively stable European balance sheet provides little immediate bullish momentum but also does not point to a major supply shock. Global wheat buyers therefore continue to have access to substantial supplies from several origins. Bullish Sentiment US winter wheat planting is behind normal: Continued delays could create weather and establishment concerns. US wheat stocks are expected to decline year-on-year: A reduction of approximately 277 million bushels would tighten inventories compared with last year. South Korean demand provides an export opportunity: A 100,000 MT tender could generate additional US wheat sales. CBOT nearby futures remain firm: December Chicago wheat is holding above $6.90 per bushel. Weather remains a potential risk: Further planting delays or poor establishment conditions could increase supply concerns. Bearish Sentiment US inventories remain large: Expected stocks near 1.857 billion bushels still represent substantial available supply. US production remains broadly unchanged: The expected 1.528 billion bushel crop provides limited evidence of a major supply reduction. EU production remains high: European wheat production is estimated at 124.2 MMT. EU exports are barely above last year: Stable export activity provides limited evidence of stronger global demand. Global supply remains diversified: Wheat buyers continue to have access to supplies from multiple major producing regions. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major price catalyst is the US Grain Stocks report. A stocks figure materially below expectations could provide support by reinforcing the idea that domestic wheat inventories are tightening. A larger-than-expected figure, however, would reinforce the market's ample-supply narrative. The winter wheat planting pace will remain another important variable. If planting catches up rapidly, the weather premium could diminish. Continued delays would increase attention on establishment conditions and potential yield implications. Export tenders will also remain important because stronger international demand is needed to absorb available US supplies. Supply Outlook The US wheat supply picture remains relatively comfortable despite the expected year-on-year decline in stocks. Production is estimated at 1.528 billion bushels, with only a minor downward revision, while expected September stocks remain substantial. The main developing supply risk is the pace of winter wheat planting. Delays have reached seven percentage points relative to the five-year average, making weather and field conditions increasingly important. Demand Outlook Demand signals are mixed. The South Korean tender for 100,000 MT provides a constructive near-term export opportunity, but EU exports remain broadly unchanged from last year. The market needs to see a more consistent flow of international buying to materially improve the US balance sheet. Currency movements will also influence export competitiveness, particularly if the US dollar strengthens against currencies of major wheat-importing countries. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Wheat is entering a data-sensitive period as traders prepare for the US Grain Stocks report while monitoring winter wheat planting progress and international tenders. The market currently has competing forces: slower-than-normal US planting and declining year-on-year stocks provide support, while substantial inventories, stable production estimates and broadly comfortable global supply limit the upside. The coming sessions are therefore likely to focus heavily on whether the stocks data confirms or challenges current expectations. At the same time, any acceleration in US planting or improvement in export demand could alter the balance of the market. Currency Hedger View Currency movements are an important component of the international wheat market because the US competes with other major exporters for global demand. A stronger US dollar can increase the effective cost of US wheat for overseas buyers, potentially reducing the competitiveness of US-origin supplies. Conversely, a softer dollar can improve purchasing power for international buyers and support US export demand. For millers, food manufacturers and agricultural traders with future US-dollar wheat purchases, the underlying commodity price and the exchange rate should therefore be assessed together. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Wheat is trading between a developing US crop concern and a still-comfortable global supply picture. The seven-percentage-point planting delay provides a potential source of support, particularly if adverse weather prevents the crop from catching up. At the same time, expected US stocks of 1.857 billion bushels and largely unchanged production estimates indicate that the domestic balance sheet remains well supplied. The next major market signal will come from the Grain Stocks report, while South Korean buying and the pace of winter wheat planting will provide additional direction. The market will need stronger export demand or a meaningful supply concern to sustain a broader advance. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Live Cattle Holds Firm as Stronger Beef Prices Offset Slower Slaughter

Live cattle futures are holding a relatively firm tone as stronger wholesale beef prices provide support despite cattle slaughter running below last year's pace. Nearby live cattle contracts are showing limited movement, while deferred contracts are slightly higher and feeder cattle futures are advancing more decisively. Cash cattle is beginning to trade around $350 in the North, while Choice boxed beef has strengthened sharply. The combination of firm cash values and higher wholesale prices is helping underpin cattle futures, although the slower pace of federally inspected slaughter remains an important supply-side factor for the market. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactOctober Live Cattle$217.225Nearby market remains relatively firmDecember Live Cattle$220.800Stable deferred pricingFebruary 2027 Live Cattle$222.925Slightly positive deferred toneNorthern Cash CattleAround $350Supports futures valuationsChoice Boxed Beef$382.66, up $2.18Strong wholesale demand signalSelect Boxed Beef$364.48, up $6.25Significant wholesale price improvementWeekly Slaughter203,000 headBelow both last week and last yearFeeder Cattle Index$338.77Slightly lower but remains elevatedFeeder Futures$1.20–$1.75 higherStronger feedlot demand expectations Current Live Cattle Price Action Live cattle futures are trading in a narrow range, with front-month contracts steady to slightly lower while deferred contracts are posting modest gains. October live cattle closed at $217.225, down 22.5 cents, while December finished unchanged at $220.800. February 2027 cattle closed at $222.925, down just 2.5 cents. The limited movement indicates that traders are balancing firm cash and wholesale beef markets against slower slaughter numbers. The stronger deferred structure suggests that the market continues to price in relatively firm cattle values further into the marketing cycle. Cash Cattle Holds Around $350 Cash cattle is beginning to trade around $350 in the North, providing an important underlying benchmark for futures. Firm cash trade is significant because it confirms that packers are still paying elevated prices for available finished cattle. If additional cash transactions develop around or above current levels, futures could receive further support. The key question is whether wholesale beef demand can continue supporting these elevated cattle values as slaughter numbers remain below last year's pace. Boxed Beef Prices Strengthen Sharply Wholesale beef prices are providing one of the strongest bullish signals in the current market. Choice boxed beef is at $382.66, up $2.18, while Select is at $364.48, up a much larger $6.25. The rise in both grades indicates stronger wholesale values across the beef complex. This can improve packer margins and provide additional incentive to maintain purchases of finished cattle. The strength of boxed beef will therefore remain an important indicator of whether the current cash cattle market can maintain its elevated levels. Slaughter Remains Below Last Year's Pace USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 108,000 head for the latest session, bringing the week's total to 203,000 head. The weekly total is 2,000 head below the comparable figure from the previous week and 29,845 head below the same period last year. The reduced slaughter pace limits the immediate flow of beef into the wholesale market. While this can support beef prices if demand remains firm, prolonged lower slaughter also raises questions about packer throughput and the timing of cattle moving through feedlots. Feeder Cattle Futures Strengthen Feeder cattle futures are showing stronger momentum than live cattle. October feeder cattle closed at $333.650, up $1.750, while November gained $1.625 to $330.900. January 2027 feeders advanced $1.425 to $323.400. The strength suggests continued interest in replacement cattle despite the elevated cost of feeder animals. However, feeder values remain closely linked to expected fed-cattle prices and feed costs. If live cattle futures remain firm, feeder cattle can continue receiving support from expectations for attractive finished-cattle values. CME Feeder Cattle Index Remains Elevated The CME Feeder Cattle Index is at $338.77, down just 2 cents. The minimal daily movement indicates that the underlying feeder market remains relatively stable despite the gains in futures. The relationship between the index and feeder futures will remain important as traders assess whether futures are accurately reflecting current cash values and expectations for future fed-cattle prices. Bullish Sentiment Northern cash cattle is around $350: Firm cash values provide direct support for live cattle futures. Choice boxed beef is strengthening: Choice prices have moved to $382.66, reinforcing the wholesale market. Select beef is also significantly higher: The $6.25 increase indicates broad strength across boxed beef values. Feeder futures are gaining: Stronger feeder cattle prices suggest continued confidence in future finished-cattle values. Slaughter remains below last year: Reduced production of beef can support wholesale prices if demand remains firm. Bearish Sentiment Cattle slaughter is below last year: Weekly kills are nearly 30,000 head below the comparable period last year. Nearby live cattle futures lack momentum: October futures are slightly lower while December is unchanged. The feeder index has softened slightly: The CME Feeder Cattle Index is marginally lower. High cattle prices could challenge demand: Elevated live cattle and beef prices may eventually create resistance from consumers. Packers remain dependent on wholesale demand: A reversal in boxed beef prices could weaken the support currently coming from the wholesale market. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus for live cattle is whether cash trade can remain around $350 while boxed beef prices continue to strengthen. If Choice and Select values remain firm, packer demand for finished cattle could continue supporting cash prices and limit downside risk in futures. For feeder cattle, the strength of live cattle futures will remain important. Continued firmness in fed cattle can support feeder values by maintaining expectations for strong finished-cattle returns. A sustained decline in boxed beef prices, however, would change the balance and could place greater pressure on both cash cattle and futures. Supply Outlook The current supply picture is being shaped by a slower slaughter pace. Weekly federally inspected slaughter is below both the previous week and the same period last year, meaning fewer cattle are currently being processed. This reduced throughput is supportive for beef prices if demand remains strong, but the market will continue watching feedlot inventories and the pace at which cattle become available for slaughter. Demand Outlook Wholesale beef demand is currently providing a constructive signal. Choice boxed beef has risen to $382.66, while Select has moved to $364.48. Continued strength in wholesale values would suggest that buyers are absorbing elevated beef prices sufficiently to support packer purchasing. The key test will be whether this strength persists as cattle and beef prices remain historically high. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Live cattle futures are likely to remain closely tied to the interaction between cash cattle, boxed beef and slaughter levels. The current combination of approximately $350 northern cash trade and stronger wholesale beef prices provides underlying support, while the reduced slaughter pace limits near-term beef production. Feeder cattle are showing stronger momentum, but the market will continue to monitor whether elevated feeder prices can be justified by expected finished-cattle values. The next major signal will come from additional cash trade and whether boxed beef values continue to rise. Continued wholesale strength would reinforce the current firm tone, while a reversal in beef prices could expose futures to renewed selling pressure. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain relevant to the US cattle and beef market because the United States participates in a highly international meat-trading environment. For exporters, changes in the US dollar can influence the competitiveness of US beef in overseas markets. A stronger dollar can increase the effective cost for foreign buyers, while a softer dollar can improve export competitiveness and potentially support demand for US beef. For businesses purchasing feed, livestock inputs or other internationally priced commodities, exchange-rate movements can also influence operating costs and margins. Monitoring cattle prices alongside the US dollar therefore provides a broader view of the potential pressures facing producers, feedlots, packers and international buyers. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets The cattle market is currently receiving support from a combination of firm cash values and stronger wholesale beef prices. Northern cash trade around $350 and rising Choice and Select boxed beef prices are helping offset the pressure created by slower slaughter. The most important factor for the coming sessions will be whether wholesale demand remains strong enough to sustain elevated cattle values. If beef prices continue to strengthen, the market can maintain support despite lower slaughter volumes. If boxed beef begins to weaken, attention will quickly shift back toward packer demand and the slower pace of cattle processing. Feeder cattle are showing additional strength, but their outlook remains dependent on expectations for continued firm finished-cattle prices. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 30, 2026

Palm Oil Rebounds as Rising Production and Weak Exports Cap the Upside

Malaysian palm oil futures are recovering toward MYR4,650 per tonne after falling to an eight-week low, with bargain hunting and firmer competing edible oils providing short-term support. Improving economic activity in China and expectations for additional stimulus are also helping sentiment, while stronger crude oil prices are improving the relative appeal of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. However, the recovery is facing a significant supply-demand challenge. Malaysian exports remain weak, inventories have climbed sharply and production is accelerating. With September output rising more than 20% during the first 25 days of the month, the market is approaching a period of increased availability that could continue to limit upside potential. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactPalm Oil FuturesAround MYR4,650/tonneShort-term recovery after an eight-week lowMonthly PerformanceAround 5% lowerBearish broader trendSeptember ExportsDown 15.1%–24.3% from AugustNegative for demandAugust InventoriesEight-month highIncreases supply pressureSeptember ProductionUp 20.84% in first 25 daysStrong bearish supply signalChina DemandEconomic activity improvingPotential support for edible oilsIndia DemandLower vegetable-oil import dutiesPositive demand prospectCrude OilHeading toward a third monthly gainSupports biodiesel economicsCompeting OilsDalian edible oils firmerProvides cross-market support Current Palm Oil Price Action Palm oil futures are attempting to recover after the recent decline pushed prices to an eight-week low. The rebound is being supported by bargain hunting and stronger Dalian edible-oil prices, suggesting that some buyers are returning after the market's recent weakness. Improving Chinese economic activity is also helping sentiment because China remains a major importer of palm oil and other edible oils. However, the recovery is taking place against a backdrop of weak exports and rapidly increasing Malaysian production. This creates a difficult environment for a sustained upside move unless demand begins to improve more substantially. Malaysian Exports Remain the Key Pressure Point Export performance remains one of the most important bearish factors facing the market. Cargo surveyors indicate that Malaysian palm oil shipments during September 1–25 are running between 15.1% and 24.3% below the comparable August period. Weak exports mean that a larger proportion of domestic production can remain in Malaysian inventories. Unless shipments accelerate toward the end of the month, the market could enter the next reporting period with a heavier supply balance. Inventories Rise to an Eight-Month High Malaysian palm oil inventories reached an eight-month high in August, highlighting the effect of stronger production and slower exports. There is also increasing concern that stocks could move above 3 million tonnes during September. A move above that threshold would represent another important indication that production is currently outpacing export demand. Higher inventories can place pressure on futures because buyers have less need to compete aggressively for nearby physical supply. September Production Surges Production is becoming the clearest bearish feature of the current market. Output during the first 25 days of September increased 20.84%, signalling that seasonal production is moving strongly into the market. If this pace is maintained through the remainder of the month, September production could significantly increase the amount of palm oil available for export and domestic use. The market will therefore be watching production estimates closely because continued high output could offset improvements in demand. China Provides a Potential Demand Catalyst China is providing a more constructive element for palm oil prices. Improved September economic activity and expectations for further stimulus are supporting sentiment toward Chinese commodity demand. Firmer Dalian edible oils are also helping palm oil recover from its recent lows. If China's economic momentum translates into stronger edible-oil consumption and import demand, palm oil could receive additional support. However, the effect will need to be measured against the large increase in Malaysian supply. India Demand Prospects Improve India is another potential source of support. Lower import duties on vegetable oils ahead of the festive season improve the economics of bringing edible oils into the country and could encourage additional buying. Stronger Indian demand would help absorb some of the additional palm oil available from Malaysia and could reduce the pressure created by rising inventories. The extent to which this translates into actual palm oil imports will remain important for the market's next phase. Higher Crude Oil Supports Biodiesel Demand Crude oil prices are providing an additional supportive factor for palm oil. Global oil prices are heading toward a third consecutive monthly gain, improving the relative economics of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. Higher fossil-fuel prices can increase the attractiveness of vegetable oils for biofuel production, potentially strengthening demand for palm oil. This factor is particularly relevant because it provides a link between the energy and vegetable-oil markets. If crude oil remains elevated, biodiesel economics could help absorb part of the additional palm oil supply. Bullish Sentiment Bargain hunting is supporting prices: The recent eight-week low is attracting buyers back into the market. China's economic activity is improving: Better economic conditions and potential stimulus could strengthen edible-oil demand. Dalian edible oils are firmer: Strength in competing vegetable oils is providing additional support. India's lower import duties improve demand prospects: Seasonal buying could increase vegetable-oil imports. Higher crude oil supports biodiesel economics: Stronger energy prices can improve the relative attractiveness of palm oil as a feedstock. Bearish Sentiment Exports remain weak: September shipments are running 15.1%–24.3% below the comparable August period. Inventories are already elevated: August stocks reached an eight-month high and could exceed 3 million tonnes in September. Production is accelerating: Output during the first 25 days of September increased 20.84%. Palm oil remains on track for a monthly decline: Futures are facing their first monthly loss in three months. Supply growth could overwhelm demand improvements: Strong production means the market needs significantly stronger exports to prevent inventories from rising further. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate question is whether the rebound toward MYR4,650 per tonne can develop into a sustained recovery or simply represents short-term bargain hunting following the recent sell-off. A stronger recovery would require evidence that export demand is improving and that higher crude oil prices, stronger Chinese demand and increased Indian buying are beginning to absorb the additional supply. Conversely, another round of weak export data combined with inventories moving above 3 million tonnes would reinforce the bearish supply narrative. The market is therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to the balance between production and exports over the coming sessions. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is currently becoming more challenging for palm oil bulls. September production is rising sharply, while August inventories are already at an eight-month high. If September output remains elevated and exports fail to accelerate, Malaysian stocks could increase further. The key supply variable is therefore not production alone, but the amount of that production that can be cleared through exports and domestic consumption. Demand Outlook Demand prospects are mixed but improving in several important markets. China is showing signs of better economic activity, while potential stimulus could support commodity consumption. India is also entering an important seasonal demand period, with lower vegetable-oil import duties improving import economics. Higher crude oil prices provide an additional source of demand through biodiesel. Nevertheless, these supportive factors need to translate into stronger physical purchases before they can offset the current export weakness. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Palm oil is attempting to recover, but the broader market remains constrained by rapidly increasing supply. The combination of rising production, elevated inventories and weak exports is keeping the fundamental balance under pressure. At the same time, firmer crude oil, stronger competing edible oils, improving Chinese activity and better Indian import economics are creating potential downside protection. The coming sessions will therefore centre on whether demand can catch up with production. Stronger exports would help validate the current recovery, while continued weak shipments and further inventory accumulation would leave the market vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Currency Hedger View Currency movements are particularly important for palm oil because Malaysia is a major global exporter and international buyers typically assess vegetable-oil purchases alongside movements in the US dollar and regional currencies. For palm oil importers, changes in the dollar against their domestic currency can materially alter the effective cost of purchases even when futures prices remain relatively stable. A weaker local currency can increase the cost of imported palm oil, while currency stability can improve purchasing visibility for manufacturers and food companies. For exporters and international businesses, the combination of palm oil prices, the Malaysian ringgit and the US dollar therefore needs to be monitored together rather than in isolation. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Palm oil is showing signs of recovery after reaching an eight-week low, but the fundamental picture remains divided. Improving Chinese activity, lower Indian import duties, firmer competing oils and higher crude prices are providing support. However, the sharp increase in Malaysian production and elevated inventories are confronting the market with a growing supply burden, while weak exports remain the most immediate demand concern. The next phase of the market will depend on whether stronger demand can absorb the additional production. Until export volumes improve materially, rallies are likely to face resistance from the expanding supply base. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Cotton Futures Plunge as Harvest Advances and Demand Signals Remain Weak

Cotton futures are under heavy selling pressure, with most 2026/27 crop contracts reaching the 4-cent daily limit as expanding harvest progress, weak physical-market activity and falling crude oil prices weigh on sentiment. December cotton is trading near 78.86 cents per pound, while March 2027 futures are around 81.75 cents, keeping the market firmly focused on the balance between rising US supply and demand. The latest US crop data shows the harvest moving ahead of normal, while crop conditions have improved slightly. At the same time, limited sales through The Seam, lower benchmark cotton prices and a substantial decline in the Adjusted World Price are highlighting a market where near-term demand is struggling to offset available supply. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactCotton FuturesDecember near 78.86 cents/lb after a 4-cent declineStrong bearish momentumUS Boll Opening70% of the crop has opened bollsIncreasing availability as harvest approachesUS Harvest17% complete, 2 points ahead of normalFaster supply flow into the marketCrop Conditions35% good/excellent, up 1 pointSlightly more supportive production outlookThe Seam SalesOnly 2,657 bales at 83.90 cents/lbWeak physical-market demand signalICE Certified Stocks28,064 balesLimited certified supply, but not enough to offset broader pressureAdjusted World Price66.09 cents/lbLower global pricing benchmarkCrude OilDown $3.66 per barrelNegative macro signal for commodity demandUS DollarDollar index higherCreates additional pressure on US export competitiveness Current Cotton Price Action Cotton futures are experiencing a sharp downside move, with October futures settling at 75.13 cents per pound, down 393 points, while December futures closed at 78.86 cents, down 400 points. March 2027 cotton also fell 400 points to 81.75 cents. The decline places nearby contracts under significant pressure as traders assess the increasing availability of US cotton and the strength of export and domestic demand. The sharp move lower also increases the importance of whether futures can stabilize as harvest activity expands. The steep decline across the 2026/27 crop contracts indicates that the market is currently placing greater emphasis on supply availability and demand uncertainty than on the modest improvement in crop condition ratings. US Harvest Progress Increases Supply Pressure US cotton is moving rapidly toward greater physical availability, with 70% of the crop showing opened bolls and 17% already harvested. Harvest progress is running two percentage points ahead of normal, meaning more physical cotton is likely to enter the marketing system over the coming weeks. The pace of harvesting will remain an important market variable. If weather allows producers to continue harvesting efficiently, the flow of new-crop cotton could keep pressure on nearby futures and basis levels. Crop Conditions Show a Slight Improvement US cotton crop conditions are currently rated at 35% good/excellent, one percentage point higher on the week. The Brugler500 index is at 294, down one point. The improvement in the good/excellent rating provides little immediate support to futures because the market is already transitioning from crop-development concerns toward actual harvest availability. With 17% of the crop already harvested, attention is increasingly shifting toward realized production, bale quality, producer selling and the ability of demand to absorb the incoming supply. Physical Cotton Demand Remains Limited The Seam reported only 2,657 bales of sales at an average price of 83.90 cents per pound. The relatively small volume highlights the lack of urgency in the physical market. With futures prices falling sharply and new-crop cotton becoming increasingly available, buyers may continue to remain selective. The Cotlook A Index is also lower at 93.25 cents per pound, down 50 points, reinforcing the broader weakness across physical cotton benchmarks. ICE Certified Stocks Remain Low ICE-certified cotton stocks are unchanged at 28,064 bales. The relatively low certified inventory remains a structural feature of the futures market and could eventually become supportive if demand for deliverable cotton increases. However, current futures pressure suggests that traders are concentrating more heavily on the broader US crop and global supply-demand balance. The key question is whether physical demand strengthens enough to absorb new-crop availability before inventories begin to rebuild. Lower Crude Oil Adds to Commodity Pressure Crude oil prices are down $3.66 per barrel, creating another headwind for cotton. Lower energy prices can reduce production, transportation and synthetic-fiber costs while also reflecting weaker expectations for broader commodity demand. Cotton competes directly with man-made fibres, making changes in energy markets particularly relevant to textile demand. If crude oil remains under pressure, cotton may face additional competition from cheaper synthetic alternatives. Stronger US Dollar Adds Export Headwinds The US dollar index is higher, creating another challenge for US cotton exports. A stronger dollar raises the effective cost of US cotton for international buyers using other currencies. With global textile demand already being closely watched, further dollar appreciation could make US cotton less competitive relative to supplies from other major exporters. Currency movements will therefore remain an important variable alongside harvest progress and export demand. Bullish Sentiment Limited ICE-certified stocks: Certified inventories remain relatively low at 28,064 bales, potentially providing support if futures delivery demand increases. Improving physical demand could stabilize prices: A recovery in mill buying or export orders would help absorb incoming US supply. Harvest remains weather-dependent: Any significant disruption during the remaining harvest period could slow the flow of new-crop cotton. Lower prices could stimulate demand: A sustained move toward the mid-70-cent area could eventually attract additional textile and export buying. Global production risks remain: Weather developments across major producing regions could alter the supply outlook later in the season. Bearish Sentiment Harvest is progressing ahead of normal: With 17% already harvested, physical availability is increasing rapidly. Futures are breaking sharply lower: The 4-cent limit decline across several contracts demonstrates strong near-term selling pressure. Physical sales remain limited: Only 2,657 bales changed hands through The Seam, highlighting weak immediate demand. A stronger dollar hurts export competitiveness: Further dollar appreciation could make US cotton more expensive for international buyers. Lower crude oil increases fibre competition: Cheaper energy can reduce costs for synthetic fibres and pressure cotton's relative competitiveness. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is whether cotton futures can stabilize following the sharp limit-down move. December cotton near 78.86 cents remains particularly important because it represents the key nearby new-crop contract as US harvest activity accelerates. A sustained break below the 78-cent area would keep the market vulnerable to additional selling and could shift attention toward the mid-70-cent range. Conversely, stabilization around current levels followed by stronger physical or export demand could allow the market to establish a short-term base. The next directional signal is likely to come from the interaction between harvest progress, producer selling, export demand and currency movements. Supply Outlook US cotton supply is becoming increasingly visible as harvesting advances. With 70% of bolls already open and harvest running ahead of normal, the market is moving closer to a period of greater physical availability. The slightly improved crop-condition rating also provides little evidence of an immediate production shock. The key supply risk is therefore shifting away from crop development and toward harvest execution, quality and producer selling behaviour. Demand Outlook Demand remains the primary concern for cotton bulls. Limited physical sales, a weaker Cotlook A Index and the lower Adjusted World Price indicate that buyers are not currently showing enough urgency to counter the increase in new-crop availability. International demand will also remain sensitive to the US dollar. If the dollar continues strengthening, US cotton may face additional competitiveness challenges in major export markets. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cotton futures remain vulnerable while harvest progress continues to increase available supply and physical demand remains subdued. Traders will be watching the pace of US harvesting, producer selling, export activity and any change in mill demand. The relationship between cotton and crude oil will also remain important because energy prices influence the competitiveness of synthetic fibres. For the near term, the market is likely to remain focused on whether prices can attract meaningful commercial buying after the sharp decline. A stabilization in physical demand could reduce downside pressure, while continued weak sales combined with a stronger dollar and advancing harvest would keep the bearish pressure intact. Currency Hedger View Currency movements are becoming increasingly important for the US cotton market as the dollar strengthens while futures prices decline. For international cotton buyers, a stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of US-origin cotton even when dollar-denominated futures prices are falling. This can influence purchasing decisions, contract timing and the competitiveness of US cotton against alternative origins. For exporters and international textile businesses, managing the currency component of a cotton transaction can therefore be just as important as monitoring the underlying commodity price. Businesses with future US-dollar cotton purchases or sales should consider both the cotton price and the exchange-rate exposure when assessing their effective cost. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cotton is entering a critical phase as the US harvest accelerates and the market shifts from production expectations toward actual physical availability. The current price decline reflects a combination of faster-than-normal harvest progress, weak physical sales, a stronger US dollar and softer crude oil. The key question for the coming sessions is whether lower prices can generate enough export and mill demand to absorb the growing supply. Until stronger evidence of demand emerges, the balance of risk remains centred on harvest pressure and the ability of the market to find commercial support. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 30, 2026

Cocoa Prices Slide as Ivory Coast Supplies Rise and Inventories Reach Multi-Year High

Cocoa prices are under renewed pressure as expanding supplies from Ivory Coast and rising exchange inventories outweigh concerns about the next West African crop. New York and London cocoa have both retreated sharply, with the market also facing additional selling pressure from a stronger US dollar. The latest Ivory Coast shipment figures point to significantly stronger availability during the current international marketing period. Farmers have shipped approximately 2.18 million tonnes to ports since October 2025, an increase of nearly 20% from the comparable period a year earlier. At the same time, ICE cocoa inventories have climbed to their highest level in more than two years. These developments are creating a more comfortable near-term supply picture, even as concerns over crop quality, disease and the 2026/27 harvest provide medium-term support. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactNew York CocoaDecember futures have fallen sharply and remain under pressureKeeps near-term momentum bearishLondon CocoaDecember futures have also declined sharplyConfirms broad selling pressureIvory Coast Shipments2.18 MMT shipped during the international marketing period, up 19.8% y/ySignals strong current availabilityICE Inventories3.45 million bags, a 2.25-year highNegative for nearby pricesIvory Coast Crop2025/26 harvest estimated at 2.06 MMT, up 30% y/yConfirms stronger current production2026/27 Ivory Coast CropEarly estimates point to around 1.8 MMTProvides medium-term supply supportGhana2026/27 production outlook has been reducedAdds longer-term supply riskGlobal BalanceSeveral forecasts point toward a much smaller surplusLimits downside over the medium termDemandEuropean grindings weakened, while North American and Asian demand improvedCreates a mixed demand outlookWeatherEl Niño could increase West African production risksPotential bullish catalyst Current Cocoa Price Action Cocoa prices remain under pressure after falling to two-month lows as traders respond to stronger evidence of current-season supply. The latest decline has also been amplified by US dollar strength. A stronger dollar generally increases the cost of dollar-denominated commodities for buyers using other currencies and can encourage liquidation from speculative positions. The market is therefore dealing with two separate forces: abundant nearby supply is weighing on prices, while concerns over the next West African crop are preventing the longer-term outlook from becoming decisively bearish. Ivory Coast Shipments Point to Strong Current Supply Ivory Coast remains the most important factor in the immediate cocoa supply picture. Government data indicate that farmers have shipped approximately 2.18 million tonnes of cocoa to ports during the current international marketing period, representing an increase of 19.8% from the comparable period. The increase indicates that physical availability from the world's largest cocoa producer remains strong. However, there is an important timing distinction. Ivory Coast has changed its domestic marketing-year start to September 1, while international cocoa statistics continue to use an October 1 starting point. This means shipment comparisons need to be interpreted carefully when assessing the early stages of the new crop. ICE Inventories Reach a 2.25-Year High Exchange stocks are adding another bearish signal. ICE cocoa inventories have increased to approximately 3.45 million bags, the highest level in around 2.25 years. Rising exchange stocks indicate that cocoa is becoming more readily available within the futures-market delivery system. If inventories continue to rise, the market could face additional pressure as traders reassess the immediate balance between physical supply and demand. The inventory increase is particularly significant because it contrasts with the longer-term concern that the next West African crop could be considerably smaller. Ivory Coast Current Crop Shows Strong Production The current production cycle has delivered substantially more cocoa from Ivory Coast. The country's cocoa regulator reported that approximately 2.06 million tonnes were harvested between June 2025 and June 2026, up around 30% from the previous year's 1.58 million tonnes. The stronger crop helps explain why current inventories and shipments have improved. However, production conditions are now shifting toward the 2026/27 season, where early crop assessments are considerably less encouraging. 2026/27 Ivory Coast Crop Faces Early Concerns Early assessments of the new Ivory Coast crop are raising concerns about pod development. Cherelle formation has reportedly been below average, while early estimates place the coming season's crop around 1.8 million tonnes. That would represent a decline of roughly 18% from approximately 2.2 million tonnes in 2025/26. This creates an important distinction for cocoa traders: current supply is strong, but the next crop may be considerably weaker. If later crop assessments confirm poor pod development, the market could begin placing greater value on future supply risks. Ghana Production Outlook Deteriorates Ghana provides another potential source of medium-term supply pressure. The country's cocoa regulator expects 2026/27 production to decline from the previous season, with estimates ranging between 450,000 and 550,000 tonnes compared with approximately 750,000 tonnes previously projected. Swollen shoot disease, aging farms and potential adverse weather are among the factors affecting the outlook. At the same time, Ghana's current season has been strong, with approximately 750,000 tonnes harvested for 2025/26, up 25.6% from the previous season. As with Ivory Coast, the market is therefore transitioning from a strong current crop toward a potentially weaker next season. Global Cocoa Surplus Is Expected to Narrow The medium-term global balance is becoming less comfortable. StoneX has reduced its projected 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to approximately 25,000 tonnes from 149,000 tonnes previously. Transgraph Consulting has also forecast a significantly smaller surplus of around 80,000 tonnes for 2026/27, compared with 415,000 tonnes in 2025/26. The reduction reflects expectations for lower West African production and increasing weather risks. A much smaller surplus leaves the market more vulnerable to supply disruptions. Even if current inventories remain high, a weak 2026/27 harvest could rapidly change the balance later in the season. El Niño Remains a Medium-Term Risk Weather remains one of the largest variables for cocoa prices. El Niño conditions can bring warmer and drier weather to West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture and stressing cocoa trees during critical development periods. If the current weather pattern becomes more persistent or intense, production estimates for Ivory Coast and Ghana could be revised lower. That risk provides an important counterweight to the current supply surplus. Cocoa Demand Remains Mixed Demand indicators are providing a divided signal. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year over year in the second quarter, reaching their lowest level for the period in six years. This points to weaker processing demand in one of the world's major cocoa-consuming regions. North American demand moved in the opposite direction, with cocoa grindings increasing 7.7% year over year. Asian grindings also rose sharply, increasing 25% year over year. The contrasting regional data make it difficult to identify a uniform global demand trend. If European weakness spreads to other markets, the current supply surplus could remain comfortable. If North American and Asian processing demand continues to strengthen, the market's supply cushion could narrow more rapidly. Bullish Sentiment The next Ivory Coast crop may be smaller: Early estimates point to a significant decline in 2026/27 production. Ghana faces a substantial production reduction: Disease, aging farms and weather risks are threatening the next crop. Global surplus estimates are shrinking: Several analysts now expect only a small surplus in 2026/27. El Niño creates additional production risk: Warmer and drier conditions could reduce West African yields. Asian and North American demand remains strong: Improving grindings in these regions provide evidence that global consumption has not weakened uniformly. Bearish Sentiment Ivory Coast shipments remain strong: Current deliveries are substantially above the comparable period last year. ICE inventories are at a multi-year high: Rising exchange stocks indicate abundant nearby availability. The current Ivory Coast crop was significantly larger: Production increased by around 30% during the 2025/26 season. European cocoa grindings are weakening: Lower European processing activity signals demand pressure. The US dollar is strengthening: A stronger dollar can create additional pressure on dollar-denominated cocoa prices and encourage speculative liquidation. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate cocoa outlook remains focused on whether strong current supplies can continue to outweigh concerns about the next crop. A continuation of rising ICE inventories and strong Ivory Coast shipments would keep pressure on nearby futures and could encourage further liquidation. However, the market's medium-term risk profile is different. If early estimates of weaker Ivory Coast and Ghana production are confirmed, the current surplus could narrow substantially. Traders are therefore watching the transition between the strong 2025/26 crop and the potentially weaker 2026/27 crop. Supply Outlook Nearby supply remains comfortable, with Ivory Coast shipments and ICE inventories both pointing toward strong availability. The outlook further ahead is less certain. Early evidence of weaker pod formation in Ivory Coast, declining Ghana production expectations and potential El Niño weather disruption all suggest that supply conditions could tighten during the next crop cycle. The critical question is whether current inventories are large enough to absorb any reduction in the next West African harvest. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed by region. European processing has weakened, while North American and Asian grindings have strengthened. This divergence means that global demand cannot currently be described by a single trend. A recovery in European processing combined with continued strength in Asia and North America would improve the demand outlook and provide greater support to prices. Conversely, persistent European weakness would leave the current supply surplus more difficult for the market to absorb. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cocoa is entering a period where the market must balance strong current availability against increasingly uncertain future production. The near-term bias remains sensitive to Ivory Coast shipments, ICE inventories and the US dollar. Continued inventory growth or further evidence of strong West African supply could keep prices under pressure. Beyond the immediate supply picture, however, the focus is likely to shift increasingly toward the 2026/27 crop. Weak pod development in Ivory Coast, lower Ghana production estimates and the potential impact of El Niño could become increasingly important as the season progresses. The central question for cocoa traders is therefore whether strong current supply can continue to dominate the market before concerns over the next crop become more significant. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important factor for cocoa producers, exporters, processors and international buyers because cocoa futures and much of the physical trade are priced in US dollars. The recent rise in the dollar has added pressure to cocoa by increasing the effective cost of dollar-denominated purchases for buyers using other currencies. For producers in West Africa, exchange-rate movements can also influence the domestic value of export revenues and the economics of selling cocoa into international markets. The current environment therefore creates two distinct currency considerations. A stronger dollar can weigh on international demand and commodity prices in the short term, while currency movements in producing countries can influence producer selling behaviour. For businesses with cocoa-related international payments, monitoring the relationship between the US dollar, local currencies and cocoa prices can help distinguish movements driven by the underlying commodity market from those driven by foreign-exchange conditions. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cocoa prices are facing strong near-term supply pressure as Ivory Coast shipments remain elevated and ICE inventories reach a multi-year high. These factors provide a clear contrast with the concerns emerging around the next West African crop. The market is increasingly split between abundant current-season supply and a potentially tighter 2026/27 balance. Ivory Coast and Ghana production estimates, weather conditions and global processing demand will determine which side of that equation becomes more influential. For now, the strongest market signals are coming from current inventories and shipments. But as the new crop develops, traders are likely to place increasing emphasis on pod formation, weather and the potential impact of El Niño on West African production. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 30, 2026

Sugar Prices Rise as EU Crop Concerns Reinforce Emerging Global Deficit

Sugar prices are moving higher as renewed concerns over European beet production add to a broader tightening of the global supply outlook. New York sugar is trading within a wide range established over the past month, while London white sugar has reached a one-week high as traders reassess production prospects across major growing regions. The latest support comes from the European Union, where the Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) unit has reduced its 2026 sugar beet yield estimate to 67.4 tonnes per hectare from 72.2 tonnes previously, citing excessively dry conditions. The revision adds another weather-related supply concern to an already increasingly uncertain outlook for India, Thailand and Brazil. The market remains balanced between tightening production expectations and evidence of weaker near-term demand. Several analysts are now forecasting a deficit for 2026/27, but differences between supply estimates remain substantial, keeping sugar prices volatile and range-bound. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactNew York SugarOctober #11 futures have moved higher and remain within a broad monthly rangeSupports a recovery toward recent highsLondon White SugarDecember #5 futures have reached a one-week highSignals improving buying interestEU Beet CropMARS cut 2026 yield estimate to 67.4 MT/ha from 72.2 MT/haBullish as European supply expectations weakenGlobal BalanceISO projects a 200,000 MT deficit for 2026/27Supports prices if confirmed by other estimatesThailandProduction forecasts range around 9.5–10 MMTLower output would tighten export availabilityIndiaMonsoon rainfall remains below normalCreates uncertainty around cane yields and domestic supplyBrazilCenter-South production has faced weaker outputLimits the potential for abundant global supplyDemandDelivery and open-interest signals point to softer near-term demandLimits upside momentumWeatherEl Niño risks remain an important production threatIncreases supply volatility Current Sugar Price Action New York sugar has been recovering from the lower end of its recent trading range, while London sugar has strengthened to a one-week high. The market remains below the 17.5-month high reached earlier in September, but the latest move suggests that supply concerns are again becoming more influential. The wider market range remains important. Sugar prices have been unable to establish a sustained breakout because bullish production risks are being offset by concerns over consumption and physical demand. A sustained move above the upper end of the current range would shift attention back toward the September highs, while renewed selling could return prices toward the recent one-month low. EU Sugar Beet Outlook Deteriorates The European sugar market is facing a weaker production outlook after MARS reduced its 2026 EU sugar beet yield estimate to 67.4 tonnes per hectare from 72.2 tonnes per hectare. The reduction reflects excessively dry conditions and provides another indication that weather is becoming an increasingly important factor for global sugar supply. Europe is not the dominant global sugar producer, but lower European beet yields can tighten regional availability and contribute to broader concerns about the availability of exportable sugar. Global Sugar Balance Moves Toward Deficit The medium-term global balance is becoming more supportive. The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of approximately 200,000 tonnes, compared with a projected 1.1 million-tonne surplus for 2025/26. That represents a significant change in the direction of the global balance as production expectations deteriorate. Other estimates also point toward tighter conditions. Covrig Analytics has shifted from a projected surplus to a 300,000-tonne deficit for 2026/27, while Czarnikow expects a much larger deficit further into the 2027/28 season. The differences between these estimates highlight the uncertainty surrounding the next crop cycle, but the common theme is a reduction in the previously expected supply cushion. Thailand Production Risks Increase Thailand remains a major factor for the global sugar balance because it is the world's second-largest sugar exporter. Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production at around 10 million tonnes, representing a potential 17% year-over-year decline. The USDA's outlook is also negative, forecasting a 15.6% reduction to around 9.5 million tonnes. Lower Thai production would reduce the amount of exportable sugar available to the international market and could increase pressure on other major exporters to meet global demand. India Faces Monsoon Uncertainty India's sugar outlook remains closely linked to rainfall. Cumulative monsoon rainfall was reported at 12% below normal by September 28, although the deficit has improved significantly from earlier in the season. The Indian Meteorological Department has also warned that the current monsoon could be the weakest in many years. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, making rainfall conditions particularly important for the next production cycle. India's decision to permit up to 1 million tonnes of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31 also highlights the uncertainty surrounding domestic availability. India normally operates as a major exporter, making a significant return to imports an important signal for the global market. Brazil Production Remains a Key Price Driver Brazil continues to provide the largest influence on the global sugar supply balance. Lower Center-South production has already provided support to prices, with Unica reporting a substantial year-over-year decline in June sugar production. The direction of Brazilian cane allocation is also becoming increasingly important. Higher crude oil prices can encourage mills to direct more cane toward ethanol rather than sugar, reducing the amount of sugar available for export. This dynamic becomes particularly important if energy markets remain elevated because the relative economics between sugar and ethanol can influence Brazilian production decisions. El Niño Creates Additional Supply Risk Weather remains one of the biggest uncertainties facing the 2026/27 sugar crop. A stronger El Niño pattern could reduce rainfall across important growing regions including Brazil, India and Thailand. If dry conditions persist through critical stages of crop development, production estimates could deteriorate further. The market is therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to weather forecasts as the next crop cycle develops. Demand Concerns Limit the Upside The bullish supply narrative is being countered by signs of softer demand. Open interest in the October New York contract indicates that potential delivery against the expiring contract could be substantial relative to historical averages. That has raised questions about the strength of physical demand at current price levels. StoneX has also reduced its 2026/27 global deficit estimate to 900,000 tonnes from an earlier 1.7 million tonnes, demonstrating that supply forecasts can still move significantly as new crop information becomes available. This uncertainty is preventing the market from establishing a clear one-way trend. Bullish Sentiment EU beet yields are being revised lower: The latest MARS estimate points to substantially weaker European beet productivity because of dry conditions. The 2026/27 global balance is tightening: ISO now expects a 200,000-tonne global deficit compared with a surplus in 2025/26. Thailand production could fall sharply: Lower Thai output would reduce available export supplies from the world's second-largest sugar exporter. India faces weather-related production uncertainty: Below-normal monsoon rainfall and potential crop stress could restrict future supply. El Niño could amplify production risks: Drier conditions across major growing regions would provide additional support if forecasts materialize. Bearish Sentiment Near-term demand remains uncertain: Physical demand has not fully confirmed the recent supply-driven price strength. Global stocks remain substantial: The USDA still expects sizeable global ending stocks for 2026/27. India could produce more sugar: The USDA forecasts Indian production to increase to around 33.6 MMT if crop conditions remain supportive. Global 2025/26 production remains large: ISO expects another record production season before the projected 2026/27 deficit emerges. Forecasts remain divided: Estimates from major analysts vary considerably, creating the possibility of further revisions toward either a smaller deficit or renewed surplus. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Sugar prices are approaching an important test after moving higher from the lower portion of their recent range. The immediate focus is whether the market can convert renewed supply concerns into a sustained breakout. A move through the upper part of the established range would bring the September high back into focus, particularly if fresh weather problems emerge in Europe, India, Thailand or Brazil. Conversely, failure to extend the recovery would leave the market vulnerable to renewed selling, particularly if demand remains weak or production estimates improve. The key issue for the next several sessions is whether supply risks are strong enough to overcome the market's existing demand concerns. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming less comfortable for 2026/27. EU beet yields have been revised lower, Thailand production is expected to decline significantly, India faces uncertainty following a weaker-than-normal monsoon, and Brazil remains sensitive to the balance between sugar and ethanol production. The USDA expects global 2026/27 sugar production to decline from the previous record, while ISO also forecasts lower production and a return to deficit. However, the size of the eventual deficit will depend heavily on weather and final crop yields. Demand Outlook Demand remains the principal counterweight to the bullish supply narrative. Global human consumption is still expected to increase, according to USDA projections, but current physical-market signals suggest buyers remain cautious at elevated prices. If demand strengthens while production estimates continue to fall, the global balance could tighten faster than currently expected. If consumption remains subdued, however, substantial inventories could limit the scale of any sustained rally. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Sugar prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in crop conditions, weather forecasts and global production estimates. The immediate focus is on whether the latest EU production downgrade can generate enough momentum to push New York and London sugar beyond their current ranges. Further deterioration in Indian or Thai crop conditions could reinforce the bullish case, while renewed improvement in production expectations would reduce pressure on available supplies. Brazil will remain central to the longer-term outlook because the allocation of cane between sugar and ethanol can materially change the volume of sugar entering the international market. For traders, the key balance is increasingly clear: a tightening 2026/27 supply outlook versus uncertain near-term demand. Currency Hedger View Currency movements remain an important secondary factor for the international sugar market. For major producing countries such as Brazil, India and Thailand, changes in local currencies against the US dollar can influence producer selling decisions and the competitiveness of exports. A weaker local currency can increase the domestic-currency value of dollar-denominated sugar revenues, potentially encouraging exports, while currency appreciation can have the opposite effect. For international sugar buyers, currency volatility can also change the effective cost of physical purchases even when the underlying futures price is stable. As sugar moves into a period where production estimates are increasingly dependent on weather and crop developments, currency movements could amplify price volatility for producers, exporters and commercial buyers managing international exposure. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Sugar is entering a more uncertain phase as the market moves away from the large surplus expected for 2025/26 toward the possibility of a deficit in 2026/27. The latest EU beet yield downgrade adds to concerns already developing around Thailand, India and Brazil. The bullish case is increasingly dependent on confirmation that weather-related production losses are large enough to tighten the global balance. The bearish case remains centred on substantial inventories, uncertain physical demand and the possibility that favourable conditions in some producing regions offset losses elsewhere. The next major directional signal is therefore likely to come from the interaction between weather, production revisions and demand, rather than from any single market factor. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Arabica Coffee Tests Fresh High as Brazil Weather Risk Counters Record Global Supply Outlook

Coffee markets are sending mixed signals as arabica prices test a 2.5-week high while robusta remains under pressure from improving supply prospects and currency-driven Brazilian export selling. December arabica futures are being supported by concerns over dry conditions in Brazil during the critical flowering stage for the 2026/27 crop, while November robusta continues to face heavier supply pressure. The immediate weather outlook is becoming increasingly important for arabica. Rainfall prospects across Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest arabica-producing region, are limited in the near term, raising concerns about flowering and the development of the next crop. At the same time, broader supply estimates remain bearish, with the International Coffee Organization and USDA both forecasting record global production. The market is therefore balancing a potentially tighter near-term arabica supply outlook against evidence that global coffee availability is expanding. The direction of prices will depend increasingly on Brazilian flowering conditions, export flows, inventories and whether the expected record global crop materializes. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactArabica FuturesDecember contract reaches a 2.5-week highWeather concerns support pricesRobusta FuturesNovember contract remains under pressureRising supply weighs on pricesBrazil WeatherRainfall concerns during floweringPotentially bullish for 2026/27 arabicaBrazil 2026 CropConab raises estimate to 67.6M bagsLarger supply remains bearishGlobal ProductionICO sees record 183.6M bags for 2025/26Supports longer-term supply pressureUSDA 2026/27Global output forecast at record 189.7M bagsMajor bearish supply factorICE Arabica Stocks255,721 bagsLow inventories provide supportICE Robusta Stocks5,398 lotsHighest in 10 months, pressuring robustaBrazil ExportsAugust exports reach record monthly levelAdds physical supplyVietnam SupplyExports and production improvingAdds pressure to robusta Current Coffee Price Action December arabica futures are holding near a 2.5-week high after gaining 0.70 cents, while November robusta futures remain slightly lower. The divergence reflects different fundamental conditions between the two markets. Arabica is receiving support from concerns about Brazil's upcoming flowering period, while robusta is facing rising inventories and stronger supply expectations from Vietnam. The Brazilian real is another important short-term factor. Its decline to a six-week low against the U.S. dollar encourages Brazilian producers to sell coffee into international markets because dollar-denominated revenues translate into more local currency. That currency effect is limiting the upside generated by weather concerns. Brazil Weather Becomes Critical for the 2026/27 Crop Brazil's flowering period is becoming the most important near-term supply variable for arabica. Meteorological forecasts indicate limited rainfall in Minas Gerais over the coming week, while concerns surrounding the timing and distribution of rainfall could affect flowering and subsequent cherry development. Recent rainfall has provided some support to crop conditions. Somar Meteorologia reported 29.7 mm of rain in Minas Gerais during the week ending September 27, equivalent to 112% of the historical average. The question now is whether rainfall remains adequate through the remainder of the flowering period. A prolonged dry spell would increase the risk premium in arabica futures, while sustained beneficial rainfall would reinforce expectations for another large Brazilian crop. Brazil Crop Estimates Remain Bearish Despite near-term weather concerns, Brazil's broader production outlook remains large. Conab has raised its 2026 Brazilian coffee production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million previously. Arabica production is projected at 48.21 million bags, representing an increase of 34.8% from the previous year, while robusta production is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The size of the expected arabica crop remains an important counterweight to weather-driven price strength. If the 2026/27 flowering period develops normally, the market could increasingly focus on the prospect of abundant Brazilian supply rather than the current weather risk. Global Coffee Supply Remains the Major Bearish Factor The International Coffee Organization estimates that global coffee production for 2025/26 will rise 4.4% year-over-year to a record 183.6 million bags. At the same time, consumption is projected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, leaving the global market with an estimated 3 million-bag surplus. This represents a major shift in the fundamental balance after several years in which production constraints and tight inventories supported coffee prices. The USDA's latest outlook reinforces the supply story, with global coffee production for 2026/27 projected at a record 189.7 million bags, an increase of 6.0% year-over-year. Global ending stocks are also forecast to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Brazil Exports Add Physical Supply Brazil's current harvest is moving into the export market, increasing the availability of physical coffee. Cecafe reported August coffee exports of 4.155 million bags, an increase of 31% year-over-year and a record for the month. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports surged 54% to 953,592 bags. Higher export volumes provide a direct source of supply for the international market and can limit futures rallies when producer selling increases. The weaker Brazilian real adds another incentive for exporters and producers to convert coffee into dollar revenue. Vietnam Supply Weighs on Robusta Vietnam remains an important bearish influence on robusta prices. Vietnamese coffee exports from January through August increased 13.7% year-over-year to 1.33 million metric tons. Full-year 2025 exports also increased 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. The 2025/26 Vietnamese crop is projected at approximately 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags, representing a four-year high. Recent rainfall has also improved soil moisture across Vietnam's Central Highlands, supporting expectations for better cherry development in the country's main robusta-growing region. The combination of larger export availability and improved growing conditions is keeping pressure on robusta. Inventories Create a Major Arabica-Robusta Divergence Coffee inventories are producing an important split between arabica and robusta. ICE arabica inventories remain historically low. Stocks reached a 27-year low of 217,646 bags on September 15 and have since recovered to 255,721 bags. Even with the recent increase, the relatively low inventory level provides a cushion against aggressive selling and means unexpected supply disruptions could generate a stronger price response. Robusta inventories tell a different story. ICE robusta stocks have risen to 5,398 lots, the highest level in 10 months. The contrasting inventory positions help explain why arabica is showing greater resilience while robusta remains more exposed to supply-driven selling. El Niño Adds Longer-Term Weather Risk Weather uncertainty extends beyond the immediate Brazilian rainfall outlook. An emerging El Niño pattern could alter rainfall patterns across major coffee-producing regions. Concerns that El Niño could delay Brazilian rains during September and October create an additional risk for flowering. The potential impact extends beyond Brazil. Changes in rainfall and temperatures can affect coffee production across both South America and Asia. However, the effect on prices will depend on actual weather developments rather than the existence of the climate pattern alone. Traders will therefore continue to monitor rainfall forecasts and soil conditions across Brazil and Vietnam. Bullish Sentiment Brazilian flowering faces weather uncertainty: Limited near-term rainfall in Minas Gerais could threaten the development of the 2026/27 arabica crop. Arabica inventories remain historically low: ICE stocks remain close to multi-decade lows, leaving the market sensitive to supply disruptions. El Niño creates additional weather risk: Potential changes in Brazilian rainfall during the flowering period could increase production uncertainty. Arabica production carries greater weather sensitivity: The large expected Brazilian crop still depends on successful flowering and subsequent growing conditions. Coffee prices are already reacting to weather risk: Arabica futures reaching a 2.5-week high indicates that weather concerns can temporarily outweigh the broader surplus narrative. Bearish Sentiment Global production is expected to reach record levels: Both the ICO and USDA project exceptionally large global coffee supplies. Brazil's 2026 crop estimate has increased: Conab now expects 67.6 million bags, with arabica production projected to rise sharply. Brazilian exports are accelerating: August exports reached a record monthly level, increasing physical availability. Vietnamese supply is improving: Higher exports and better soil moisture are strengthening the robusta supply outlook. Global inventories are expected to increase: The USDA forecasts world ending stocks rising to 26.3 million bags in 2026/27. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate direction of arabica futures will depend heavily on Brazilian flowering conditions. A continuation of dry weather across Minas Gerais would increase concern over the 2026/27 crop and could keep a weather premium embedded in arabica prices. A return to consistent rainfall, however, would shift attention back toward the much larger production estimates from Brazil and the USDA. For robusta, the supply picture remains more clearly negative. Rising ICE inventories, stronger Vietnamese exports and improving crop conditions provide fewer reasons for a sustained price recovery unless a new supply disruption emerges. The key market question is therefore whether weather risk can remain significant enough to offset the record global production outlook. Supply Outlook Global coffee supply is expected to expand substantially into the 2026/27 season. The USDA's 189.7 million-bag global production forecast represents a record level, while Brazil is expected to deliver a major increase in arabica production. Vietnam is also providing additional robusta supply. The primary uncertainty is weather. A significant deterioration in Brazilian flowering conditions could reduce expected production and force the market to reassess the current surplus outlook. Demand Outlook Demand is currently less supportive than the supply side of the market. The ICO expects global consumption to decline 0.9% in the 2025/26 season, contributing to an estimated 3 million-bag surplus. For prices to sustain a stronger recovery, demand would need to improve enough to absorb the anticipated increase in production. Otherwise, rising availability and inventories could continue to cap rallies. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coffee prices are entering a period in which weather and supply estimates are likely to compete for market attention. Arabica has the stronger immediate fundamental support because Brazil's flowering stage creates a genuine production risk and ICE inventories remain historically low. However, the longer-term supply outlook remains bearish, with Brazil, Vietnam and global production forecasts all pointing toward increased availability. Robusta faces a heavier supply burden as Vietnamese exports improve and ICE inventories reach a 10-month high. The next major signal for arabica will be Brazilian rainfall. Traders will be watching whether Minas Gerais receives enough moisture to protect flowering and support the large crop currently expected for 2026/27. At the same time, producer selling, the Brazilian real and physical export flows will remain important variables. Currency Hedger View Coffee is particularly sensitive to currency movements because Brazil and Vietnam are major exporters whose producers receive revenues linked to the U.S. dollar while operating with significant local-currency costs. A weaker Brazilian real can encourage producers to increase export sales because dollar-denominated coffee revenues translate into more reais. This can increase physical supply and place additional pressure on futures prices even when weather concerns are supportive. For coffee buyers, roasters and international traders, the combination of coffee prices and USD/BRL movements can therefore have a direct impact on landed costs and margins. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider FX forces that can influence commodity purchasing costs and international trade. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Coffee markets are caught between two very different forces. Near-term Brazilian weather risk is supporting arabica as the 2026/27 crop enters its critical flowering period, while the broader global production outlook remains heavily bearish. The record global production forecasts from the ICO and USDA, combined with higher Brazilian exports and improving Vietnamese supply, point toward substantially greater availability. Yet the historically low level of ICE arabica inventories means that the market remains sensitive to any deterioration in Brazilian growing conditions. The next phase of the market will therefore depend on whether weather risk becomes a genuine production threat or whether favourable conditions allow the large crop estimates to be realised. Arabica currently has more weather-driven support than robusta, but both markets remain exposed to the broader global supply outlook. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 30, 2026

Platinum Attempts Recovery as Falling Oil Eases Rate Pressure

Platinum futures are attempting to recover above $1,700 an ounce after recently falling to a two-month low, with softer oil prices providing some relief to precious metals. Lower crude prices are easing concerns about another inflationary surge, potentially reducing pressure on interest rates and improving the environment for non-yielding metals. However, platinum remains caught between supportive physical fundamentals and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Elevated Treasury yields and a firm US dollar continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, while expectations for further US monetary tightening remain a major factor influencing investor demand. The fundamental picture is equally mixed. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026, but above-ground stocks are expected to remain historically constrained following three consecutive years of significant market deficits. At the same time, industrial demand is projected to increase as demand from glass, electrical and AI-related applications expands, partially offsetting weaker automotive and jewellery consumption. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactPlatinum PriceTrading above $1,700 an ounce while attempting to recoverHolding $1,700 could support a broader recoveryOil PricesFalling as energy flows improveReduces inflation pressure and supports non-yielding metalsUS Treasury Yields10-year yield remains around 5.24%Keeps pressure on precious metalsUS DollarFirm against major currenciesMakes dollar-priced platinum more expensive internationally2026 Market BalanceWPIC forecasts a 265,000-ounce surplusCreates a fundamental headwindIndustrial DemandForecast to rise 5% in 2026Provides structural supportAutomotive DemandForecast to fall 4%Limits overall demand growthAbove-Ground StocksExpected to remain at only around 3.4 months of demand coverProvides longer-term supply sensitivity Current Platinum Price Action Platinum is attempting to stabilise above $1,700 after the recent decline to a two-month low. The recovery is taking place against a backdrop of easing crude prices, which can reduce concerns that another energy-driven inflation shock will force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. For platinum, this matters because the metal does not generate interest income. When bond yields rise and expectations for higher policy rates increase, the opportunity cost of holding platinum becomes less attractive. A sustained recovery therefore requires more than technical buying. Markets need evidence that the interest-rate environment is becoming less restrictive or that platinum's physical fundamentals are strong enough to outweigh macroeconomic pressure. Falling Oil Prices Reduce Inflation Pressure Crude oil has become an important short-term driver for precious metals. Lower oil prices can reduce headline inflation pressure and ease expectations that central banks will need to respond with additional interest-rate increases. That creates a potentially more supportive environment for platinum and other non-yielding metals. The relationship is particularly important while Treasury yields remain elevated. If oil continues to decline, the resulting reduction in inflation expectations could eventually put downward pressure on bond yields and provide additional support for platinum. Treasury Yields Keep Platinum Under Pressure The main macroeconomic obstacle remains the US interest-rate environment. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.24%, close to its highest level in many years. Elevated yields increase the relative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets compared with precious metals. A firm US dollar adds another layer of pressure because platinum is priced in dollars. A stronger dollar can reduce purchasing power for international buyers and weigh on demand outside the United States. For platinum to sustain a stronger recovery, traders will therefore be watching whether Treasury yields begin to retreat alongside softer inflation expectations. Platinum Fundamentals Remain Mixed The physical market presents a more complicated picture. WPIC's latest 2026 forecast calls for a 265,000-ounce platinum surplus, largely reflecting investment outflows and weaker overall demand. However, this follows a revised 2025 deficit of more than 1.4 million ounces. As a result, the projected 2026 surplus does not translate into abundant inventories. WPIC expects above-ground stocks to remain at only around 3.4 months of global demand cover by the end of the year. That leaves platinum vulnerable to renewed supply or demand shocks even if the annual balance remains in surplus. Industrial Demand Provides Structural Support Industrial demand is becoming an increasingly important part of the platinum story. WPIC expects industrial demand to rise 5% in 2026 to approximately 2.385 million ounces, with growth coming from glass, chemical, medical, electrical and hydrogen applications. The expansion of artificial intelligence and data-centre infrastructure is also creating additional demand through platinum applications in advanced glass and electrical technologies. WPIC forecasts glass demand to increase 23% and electrical demand to rise 19% during 2026. This provides a longer-term demand theme that is increasingly separate from traditional automotive consumption. Automotive Demand Remains a Headwind Automotive demand is moving in the opposite direction. WPIC forecasts automotive platinum demand to fall 4% in 2026 to around 2.904 million ounces. The decline reflects weaker demand in China and Europe, although stronger hybridisation and commercial-vehicle production in North America and India provide partial offsets. The shift toward hybrids is important because platinum demand does not disappear uniformly as vehicle technology changes. However, the broader reduction in automotive demand remains a constraint on the market. Bullish Sentiment Platinum is attempting to reclaim $1,700: Holding this level could provide a technical base for further recovery. Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure: Softer energy prices could reduce expectations for prolonged monetary tightening. Industrial demand is expanding: WPIC expects industrial platinum demand to rise 5% during 2026. AI-related demand is emerging: Expanding data-centre and semiconductor infrastructure is creating additional platinum applications. Inventories remain tight: Even with the projected 2026 surplus, above-ground stocks are expected to provide only around 3.4 months of global demand cover. Bearish Sentiment Treasury yields remain elevated: High US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding platinum. The US dollar remains firm: Dollar strength can weigh on international demand for dollar-priced platinum. The market is forecast to remain in surplus: WPIC's 265,000-ounce surplus projection represents a fundamental headwind. Automotive demand is declining: WPIC expects automotive platinum demand to fall 4% in 2026. Investment demand remains vulnerable: Earlier 2026 ETF and investment outflows have been a major factor behind the shift toward a projected annual surplus. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The $1,700 area is the immediate level traders are likely to monitor as platinum attempts to establish a recovery. A sustained move above this level would strengthen the case that the recent decline is losing momentum and could bring higher resistance levels back into focus. However, platinum needs confirmation from the wider precious-metals environment. Falling Treasury yields, a softer US dollar and further declines in oil-driven inflation expectations would improve the macroeconomic backdrop. Conversely, renewed gains in Treasury yields or a stronger dollar could push platinum back toward its recent lows. The key question is whether improving macroeconomic conditions can begin to outweigh the projected market surplus. Supply Outlook Platinum supply is expected to increase in 2026, with recycling providing much of the growth while mine production remains relatively subdued. WPIC projects total supply to increase approximately 2% to 7.353 million ounces, supported by higher recycling. Mine supply is forecast to remain broadly flat. This limits the possibility of a major supply expansion in response to higher prices. The market therefore remains sensitive to disruptions, particularly because inventories have already been depleted by previous years of deficits. Demand Outlook Demand is increasingly divided between weakening traditional uses and expanding industrial applications. Automotive demand is expected to decline 4%, while jewellery demand is forecast to fall 15%. Industrial demand, however, is expected to increase 5%, supported by glass, chemical, electrical, medical, hydrogen and AI-related applications. This changing demand structure could become increasingly important for platinum over the longer term. If investment demand recovers while industrial consumption continues expanding, the projected surplus could narrow more quickly than current forecasts suggest. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Platinum's near-term direction will remain closely linked to the relationship between oil prices, Treasury yields and the US dollar. Continued weakness in crude could ease inflation expectations and reduce pressure on interest rates, creating a more favourable environment for platinum. However, if Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar continues to strengthen, rallies may continue to face resistance. Beyond the immediate macroeconomic environment, traders will also monitor physical-market developments, investment flows and evidence that AI-related industrial demand is becoming a meaningful source of platinum consumption. The market therefore has two competing forces: short-term macroeconomic pressure versus increasingly important long-term industrial demand. Currency Hedger View Platinum is priced in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of the effective price for international buyers and sellers. A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of platinum for buyers outside the United States, while a weaker dollar can improve purchasing power and potentially support international demand. For businesses exposed to platinum prices through manufacturing, industrial inputs or international procurement, the commodity price alone does not tell the full story. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the business's operating currency can materially change the final cost. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider economic and central-bank forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Platinum is attempting to recover, but the next phase of the market will depend on whether the easing inflationary pressure from lower oil prices can translate into a less restrictive interest-rate environment. The fundamental picture remains mixed. The projected 265,000-ounce surplus creates a clear headwind, but it needs to be considered alongside depleted inventories, limited mine-supply growth and rising industrial demand. The longer-term AI and data-centre demand story is particularly important because it introduces new sources of platinum consumption beyond the traditional automotive and jewellery markets. For the coming sessions, the key combination remains $1,700 platinum, US Treasury yields, the US dollar and oil prices. A sustained improvement across the macroeconomic backdrop could allow platinum to extend its recovery, while renewed strength in yields and the dollar would keep pressure on the metal. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 29, 2026

Commodity Talk: Silver, Copper, Oil And Coffee

Key takeaways WTI crude oil trades at 92.74 USD per barrel, up 61.96% year-to-date. Silver prices sit near 60 USD per ounce, registering a 5.85% weekly decline. Copper prices stand at 14 393 USD per metric ton, supported by strong supply deficits. Commodities Market Overview Today's session on the commodities markets brings a clear dominance of bearish sentiment, with only 6 out of 26 monitored assets recording gains. An average daily change of -0.78% reflects supply pressure, which hits the agricultural and soft commodities sectors the hardest. Among the assets suffering the largest losses, cotton and cocoa stand out, recording declines exceeding two percent. The only group showing clear gains remains precious metals, led by palladium and gold, which are attempting to recover from earlier weekly losses. At the same time, statistical indicators point to strong historical anomalies – copper and zinc remain significantly displaced upward from their five-year averages, which stands in contrast to deep price drops in lean hogs. The broader macroeconomic and geopolitical context, including reports of a potential US diesel export ban and the resumption of crude oil shipments by Saudi Arabia, raises concerns over the stability of global supply chains. In the near term, investors should closely monitor the rhetoric surrounding US energy policy and key technical support levels in the precious metals market amidst ongoing inflation fears. Higher crude oil prices, driven among other factors by tensions surrounding Iran and threats to regional infrastructure, exert pressure toward higher interest rates and on the currencies of energy-importing countries, while also affecting gold prices, which are testing local support levels. In the near term, investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their direct impact on fuel and energy prices, as also confirmed by comments from European Central Bank representatives. Also important for agricultural and industrial markets will be news regarding China's trade policy toward US crops and local supply disruptions, such as the effects of Hurricane Polo in Mexico. The past month brought a significant correction across commodities markets, outside the energy group. Sugar, live cattle, and orange juice also gained value. Source: XTB None of the commodities currently appear extremely overbought when looking at technical indicators like RSI, while many of them show a bearish bias looking at MACD. Source: XTB Silver The current price of silver is slightly over USD 60, registering a weekly decline of 5.85%, a monthly drop of 8.79%, and a YTD decline of 16.43%, along with a year-on-year growth of 30.03%. The RSI indicator reached a level of 33, bringing the market closer to oversold territory, and key technical indicators remain in a bearish setup with a bearish status on the SMA moving average, the MACD indicator generating sell signals, and the price sitting 5.01% below the 50-day moving average SMA50 under bearish sentiment. A breakdown below USD 62 per ounce at the 50.0 retracement level triggers a more bearish outlook in the short term, but holding USD 60 may still offer bulls a chance for medium-term upside. Fundamental and Market Context Physical demand for silver is strengthening, as reflected in reports of rising demand for the precious metal on commodity exchanges. This is also evident in ETF funds, which maintain high silver holdings despite the recent sell-off on exchanges. The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy and sustained hawkish stance generate pressure on non-yielding assets in the face of multi-year highs in US Treasury yields. Despite this, institutional sentiment remains positive, primarily in the gold market. The global silver market faces direct macroeconomic pressure stemming from a combination of high interest rates and a restrictive credit environment. Credit growth in China is falling sharply, which could weigh on silver in the short term. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East region and associated high energy commodity prices generate a persistent inflationary impulse, affecting operating costs in the mining sector. Speculative fund positioning reflects a cautious stance toward the metal, as indicated by a percentile ranking of 47.3% with a long position share of 78.9%. The 8.79% monthly drop in silver prices coincides with deteriorating technical sentiment, bringing the RSI indicator down to 33 and pressuring key support levels. The gold-to-silver ratio remains elevated compared to a few months ago, but continued pressure from yields could push this ratio up to 70. At a gold price of USD 4,200 per ounce, silver would then be valued at exactly USD 60, meaning silver appears currently well valued. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The oil-to-silver ratio remains low, somewhat reminiscent of the late 1970s. Back then, silver was recovering from a strong rebound in 1987 and subsequently pulled back for 5 years. In 1990, a sharp surge in oil prices drove the ratio up to 9. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The hope for bulls lies in high ETF silver holdings, suggesting the price decline may be temporary. However, if funds start selling, a deeper drop below USD 55 per ounce cannot be ruled out. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning Z-score values for silver stand at -0.67 on a 1-year horizon (Z1Y), +0.43 on a 2-year horizon (Z2Y), and +1.35 on a 5-year horizon (Z5Y). An analysis of the 5-year Z-score historical dynamics shows that this indicator stood at 2.54 six months ago, then dropped to 1.41 three months ago, settled at 1.73 one month ago, and has now returned to 1.35, reflecting a gradual cooling of silver's long-term price premium. According to CFTC data as of September 22, 2026, net speculative positioning stands at 25,444 contracts, with a Z-score of -1.05 and a historical percentile of 47.3%. The weekly change in positions showed an increase of 118 contracts, while the share of long positions settled at 78.9%. Synthesizing both perspectives indicates moderate divergence: a negative Z-score in speculative positioning near the 47th percentile alongside a low RSI of 33 suggests the market is in a local oversold phase, though the absence of extreme undervaluation in futures contracts limits immediate risk of a sharp short squeeze. At the same time, the price drop alongside a reduced long-term Z-score valuation confirms that downward pressure is well grounded in current capital flows. Silver is currently not showing large deviations from moving averages. Source: XTB Essentially since July of last year, we have seen a clear reduction in long positions. Currently, open interest remains at low levels, and net positions are negatively deviated from the average, but do not show extreme oversold conditions like in Q1 of this year. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: The bullish scenario depends on easing pressure from US Treasury yields and a sustained break above technical resistance near the 50-day moving average SMA50, which would need support from ETF inflows and an RSI rebound above 50, opening the path toward resistance around 64.50 and a return toward highs near 68.00. Bearish Scenario: The bearish scenario materializes if a hawkish monetary policy stance persists along with further losses below key technical support. Given the bearish configuration in the SMA and MACD indicators and a further RSI drop below 33, this could lead to a deeper sell-off testing price levels around 57.00, and potentially down to 54.20 if selling pressure accelerates. Copper Copper prices currently stand at USD 14,393.0 per metric ton, with weekly prices down 1.38%, while month-on-month gains reach 0.87%. Year-to-date (YTD), the commodity benchmark is up 15.62%, and the year-on-year return reaches an impressive 39.77%. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40, the SMA moving average gives a bullish signal with a 1.54% price deviation above the SMA50, while the MACD indicator remains in bearish territory. Copper remains in an upward consolidation trend, staying above 5-digit price levels (LME prices) for nearly a year now. Recent days failed to break the all-time high, but the current pullback is holding around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward impulse and near the 25-day SMA. Fundamental and Market Context The copper market remains structurally distorted by geographic inventory asymmetry and systematic output declines across key mines. Inventories continue to be directed to the United States over fears of new tariffs and due to copper's growing role in emerging tech developments. The global supply-demand balance is characterized by a deficit of physical cargo shipments, putting upward pressure on regional premiums. However, construction and industrial demand in major Asian economies is capping copper's upside potential. China's credit impulse indicates that copper's price rise is not driven by demand-side factors. Copper forward curve indicators reflect contract relationships over annual horizons, showing Z-score values of 1.32 for 1-year, 1.72 for 2-year, and 2.63 for 5-year periods. Smelting activity at copper refineries faces raw material constraints tied to concentrate availability, translating into low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). Market sentiment measured by synthetic indicators remains neutral, reflecting a tug-of-war between strong supply fundamentals and concerns over global manufacturing health. Growing fears of production halts at certain Chilean mines (strikes, a worker fatality at Escondida) are keeping copper prices hovering near record highs. The decline in global copper inventories has paused somewhat, while the build-up at the turn of 2025/2026 is a result of inventory building in the US. Meanwhile, in China, we continue to see inventory drawdowns reaching extreme lows. China's credit impulse, which typically served as a leading indicator, currently shows that copper price gains are disconnected from demand factors. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Global copper exchange inventories have halted their decline recently and are stabilizing. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The copper-to-gold ratio used to be an important economic indicator pointing the way for yields. Currently, copper gains are primarily a short-term supply story, and long-term fears of supply failing to match growing demand. Even so, the copper-to-gold ratio has recently priced rising yields fairly well. Source: XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning The price Z-score for copper stands at 1.32 on a 1-year horizon (Z1Y), 1.72 on a 2-year horizon (Z2Y), and reaches 2.63 on a 5-year horizon (Z5Y). The 5-year Z-score showed notable volatility over recent months: six months ago it stood at 2.17, three months ago it rose to 2.62, one month ago it ticked up to 2.79, and has now stabilized at 2.63. According to CFTC data as of September 22, 2026, fund net speculative positioning reached 90,522 long contracts, with the position Z-score touching an extreme +2.12 level, corresponding to the 99.9th historical percentile. The weekly change reflected a sharp influx of speculative capital, adding 15,388 contracts, with the long share increasing to 76.9%. It is worth noting that CFTC data pertains to US copper, which trades in cents per pound. At the same time, US positioning data correlates well with London prices, which currently do not show significant spread against US figures. The above synthesis points to a strong divergence between valuations based on historical deviations and aggressive speculative positioning. A high 99.9th percentile and a surge in net long positions alongside neutral technical sentiment indicate that the market is heavily crowded on the bullish side. Such a positioning structure drastically increases the risk of sudden profit-taking and a sharp downward correction should negative macroeconomic triggers or disappointments in physical demand data emerge. Copper remains visibly overbought looking at the 5-year average, but the previous setup in 2021-2022 suggests copper can consolidate for an extended period at high deviation levels. Source: XTB Net positions are currently near extreme overbought territory, but historically, only a clear move above a 2x standard deviation triggered a strong signal. Source: CFTC, XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: This scenario materializes if the physical copper concentrate deficit deepens further, unexpected outages occur at key mines, and industrial activity and orders accelerate in China's high-tech and renewable energy sectors. A necessary condition is maintaining support at the SMA moving average and defending price retracement levels above USD 14,000 per ton. With strong fund backing and sustained high net positioning, copper quotes could break technical resistance and head toward USD 14,800–15,200 per ton. Bearish Scenario: This scenario assumes a wave of sell-offs and liquidation of extremely high long positions by speculative investors, which could be triggered by weakening macroeconomic indicators or a stronger inflow of copper scrap into developed markets. Technical conditions include a sustained RSI drop below 40, a MACD line cross in favor of sellers, and a price break below key support around USD 14,150 per ton. Under rapid liquidation of record speculative involvement, copper prices could dive toward USD 13,600–13,800 per ton. Crude Oil WTI Crude is trading at USD 92.74 per barrel, reflecting a monthly gain of 7.50%, a strong YTD surge of 61.96%, and a year-on-year increase of 48.57%. The RSI indicator stands at 45, indicating a neutral market position; the SMA moving average maintains a bullish signal, while the MACD indicator generates a bearish signal. Quotes remain 5.28% above the 50-period SMA moving average under neutral market sentiment, though morning gains have given way to a pullback below the 25 SMA. Nevertheless, only a move below the 50.0 retracement would signal a genuine attempt to break the uptrend that has been in place since early July. Fundamental and Market Context November Brent crude futures fell to USD 105 per barrel, while the December contract struggled to break back above USD 100 per barrel. Partial recovery of transit through the Strait of Hormuz to around 7.4 million bpd, monitored by Kpler, enabled total Middle East exports to rise to 12.8 million bpd in September. Some reports even suggest Middle East exports over recent days reached up to 17 million bpd. However, the key aspect is that costs associated with Persian Gulf oil exports (insurance, transshipment) currently run up to USD 20-30 per barrel. Therefore, only a genuine agreement could drive a sustained price slump below the USD 80 per barrel mark. The OPEC+ alliance maintained output cuts unchanged, with Saudi Arabian production stabilizing around 10.48 million bpd. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates effective OPEC+ spare capacity at just 0.22 million bpd, signaling an absence of supply buffer. The US EIA forecasts forced production shut-ins in the Persian Gulf averaging 5.7 million bpd in Q4 2026. Announcements of a potential US diesel export ban caused crack margins to collapse to a monthly low, discouraging US refiners from crude purchases and weighing on WTI prices while driving up European diesel prices. Iran's parliamentary leader, Qalibaf, stated via state media that no country in the region will sell its oil if Iran cannot sell its own, warning that a lack of security for Iran means a lack of security for regional infrastructure. The European Central Bank, through representative Kazimir, highlighted that energy prices remain a key macroeconomic factor. Lufthansa Group pointed to oil prices and fleet issues as main factors signaling another year of operational and financial challenges for the carrier. Argentina threatened legal action and a lawsuit against the United Kingdom unless an offshore oil drilling project near the Falkland Islands is suspended. Crack spread is dropping visibly, but remains at historically high levels. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB WTI Crude is approaching a seasonal peak. Long-term averages point to price pullbacks in the October-November period. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The front calendar spread on Brent is exaggerated mainly due to contract expiration. However, the entire curve is elevated, even amid signs of returning exports from the Middle East. Source: XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning The Z-score for crude oil stands at Z1Y: +0.90, Z2Y: +1.54, and Z5Y: +1.04. Over a 5-year view, the Z-score showed volatility, standing at +0.37 one month ago, -0.61 three months ago, +1.26 six months ago, and currently stabilizing at +1.04, reflecting a clear rebound in medium-term valuations. According to CFTC data as of September 22, 2026, net speculative positioning reached +141,106 contracts, with a Z-score of -0.18 and a percentile of 58.1%. The weekly net position change showed an increase of 5,201 contracts, with the long position share settling at 62.2%. Speculative positioning sits within moderate historical bounds and shows no extreme swings, confirming moderate market optimism without signs of an exaggerated speculative bubble. This means current valuation relies more heavily on solid fundamental and geopolitical drivers than on escalating financial leverage from speculators. Oil recently showed a short-term overbought signal relative to the 3-month and 2-year moving averages. Source: XTB Recently, we observed a slight increase in long positions, bringing net positions near the 2-year average. A long position increase above 400,000 could provide a mild contrarian overvaluation signal. Source: CFTC, XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: The bullish scenario assumes the materialization of geopolitical risk through a sustained blockade of maritime routes in the Middle East or further escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf region, which, given critically low OPEC+ spare production capacity of 0.22 million bpd, will trigger a sharp physical deficit. An additional bullish catalyst will be maintaining a wide spread between Brent and WTI along with a deepening product crisis in Europe linked to North American fuel export restrictions. These conditions must lead to breaking technical resistance, targeting Brent crude quotes above USD 110.00 per barrel and US WTI crude toward USD 98.00–100.00 per barrel. Bearish Scenario: The bearish scenario assumes an easing of geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a full, stable normalization of maritime transit above projected levels, accompanied by declining refining margins and the actual implementation of US diesel export curbs hitting base demand in America. Bearish pressure will also be reinforced by scheduled refinery downtime and waning inflationary pressure forcing more restrictive central bank actions. Fulfilling these technical and fundamental conditions will pull WTI crude quotes below support around USD 88.00 per barrel, and Brent crude toward USD 90–95 per barrel. Coffee The current coffee futures contract price stands at 289.77, recording a monthly drop of 7.23%, a year-to-date (YTD) decline of 18.41%, and a year-on-year correction of 22.55%. The RSI indicator sits at a neutral level of 49, while the SMA moving average generates bullish signals, further supported by a rising MACD indicator. Quotes remain 6.16% below the 50-session moving average under neutral market sentiment. A breakout from the downward trendline generates a potential bullish signal, but only a move above 300 cents per pound and above the 25 SMA would offer a chance for a sustained recovery and an attempt to reach the 50.0 retracement area of the latest downward wave. If coffee prices fail to climb back above 290 cents per pound, the current breakout might only represent a brief correction followed by an attempt to drop toward June lows below 250 cents per pound, where the 61.8 extension of the last corrective leg in the August-September downtrend lies. Fundamental and Market Context Arabica coffee futures registered their largest monthly gain in New York, surging late in September by up to 4.6% to USD 2.915 per pound for December delivery after breaking through a key technical threshold at USD 2.84 per pound. Overall market fundamentals remain bearishly tilted, primarily influenced by Brazil continuing shipments of its massive current crop, expected to comfortably surpass 70 million bags total. Brazil is estimated to export between 4.3 million and 4.6 million bags of coffee in September, with the majority consisting of Arabica beans, which analysts consider a very strong volume. Meteorological forecasts project rainfall in Brazil over upcoming days, expected to stimulate and encourage flowering ahead of the next harvest season. Rainfall in Brazil's largest Arabica coffee-growing region reached 29.7 mm last week, representing 112% of the historical norm for this period. The southern and southwestern regions of Minas Gerais state typically account for roughly 30% of domestic Arabica production, and historical average rainfall for this time stands at 26.4 mm, within a range of 0.6 mm to 79.4 mm. According to USDA data, the 26/27 season is set to be another year of heavy oversupply. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Arabica prices adjusted to match previously sharp declines in Robusta. However, it is worth remembering that Robusta could potentially face upside risks given El Niño's impact on crops in Vietnam and Indonesia. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Looking at historical coffee price behavior, the very end of the year has typically been good for coffee. Seasonality shows consolidation through late November. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The 26/27 season is projected to bring the first increase in global inventories in many years, which could also spur a rebound in exchange stocks. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) and CFTC Positioning The Z-score for coffee stands at -0.74 on a 1-year horizon, -0.85 on a 2-year horizon, and +0.52 on a 5-year horizon. Analyzing 5-year Z-score dynamics over the past six months shows that it stood at +0.96 six months ago, dropped to +0.43 three months ago, rebounded to +0.83 one month ago, and has now settled at +0.52. According to CFTC data as of September 22, 2026, net speculative positioning stood at +10,273 contracts, with a Z-score of -1.52 and a percentile of 50.3%. On a weekly basis, a reduction in speculative exposure of 5,197 contracts was recorded, with the long position share reaching 57.0%. The above data points to moderate speculative fund positioning sitting right in the middle of the historical range (percentile near 50%). This balance generally confirms a moderate valuation based on the medium-term price Z-score, presenting no immediate risk of forced position unwinding or short squeezes, leaving the market in a technical consolidation phase driven by ongoing weather factors in South America. Coffee shows negative deviations from 3-month to 2-year moving averages and sits very close to the 5-year average. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Long positions were recently reduced, falling to their lowest level since 2023. At that time, net positioning was also negative, acting as a contrarian indicator twice three years ago. Source: CFTC, XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: This scenario plays out if current technical momentum is sustained following the breakout above key support, combined with additional weather anomalies or periodic droughts in key Brazilian growing regions that could threaten next year's harvest. A necessary condition is also maintaining neutral-to-bullish momentum indicators alongside no sudden surge in South American export volumes. In such an environment, coffee prices could extend their move toward resistance located around USD 3.10 - 3.25 per pound. Bearish Scenario: This case assumes a return to dominant, structural bearish fundamentals, driven by the realization of forecasted abundant rainfall encouraging optimal flowering for the new crop in Brazil, alongside sustained record export pace from the country. Technical conditions require breaking below recent support levels and a price drop under USD 2.75 per pound, which would negate current buy signals from the SMA and MACD. Consequently, coffee prices could slide toward the support zone near USD 2.50 - 2.60 per pound.

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Forex Trading

September 29, 2026

Currency Talk – GBP/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) time frame. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps identify points where a trend may continue or where a trend reversal may occur. GBPUSD GBPUSD has been trending upward for quite some time, but recently we have seen a marked deepening of the downward correction. After reaching a high around 1.3660, the price began to pull back and subsequently broke below the 1.3392 level, which served as the lower boundary of a broad 1:1 green pattern. After breaking through this level, the correction continued to develop, and currently, the key resistance level remains at 1.3295, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the local 1:1 pattern marked in red. As long as the price remains below this level, the downtrend remains in effect. Conversely, a move back above 1.3295, followed by a move above 1.3392, would increase the likelihood of a return to an uptrend. At this point, however, a return to an uptrend is not the base case scenario. Should the declines continue to deepen, the next significant level remains around 1.3140—the recent lows. GBPUSD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation5 EURAUD The EURAUD pair has been trending downward for quite some time. Following an earlier downward move, the price has recently been attempting to rebound, but it remains within a broad downtrend. Currently, the key resistance level is 1.6323, which marks the upper boundary of the 1:1 pattern highlighted in red. As long as the price remains below this level, the downtrend remains in effect. Conversely, a sustained break above 1.6323 could pave the way for a further upward correction. In the event of a return to declines, the key support level remains at 1.6063, the recent low EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation5 EURGBP The EURGBP pair has been trending downward for quite some time, but since early July, we’ve seen an attempt at a more significant rebound. After hitting a low around 0.8463, the price began an upward move, but it remains within a broad 1:1 red pattern. The key resistance level remains at 0.8630, where the upper boundary of this pattern is located. As long as the price stays below this level, the downtrend remains in effect. Conversely, the nearest support level remains at 0.8553, where the lower boundary of the local green 1:1 pattern is located. If this level holds, a further upward correction is possible. Conversely, a break below it would increase the risk of a return to downward movement. EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation5

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Banks

September 29, 2026

EUR/USD: Lagarde’s dovish tilt weighs on Euro – ING

Francesco Pesole at ING says EUR/USD downside risks have increased after dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, which widened SOFR-ESTR spreads and tempered expectations for an October ECB hike. Lagarde comments pressure Euro outlook "The euro held up relatively well yesterday considering the slew of dovish-leaning comments by ECB President Lagarde, which favoured a widening in the SOFR-ESTR 2yr swap to beyond 155bp. We are now not far from the 163bp max width reached in early July." "Lagarde seemed willing to tone down some market enthusiasm about an October hike yesterday, saying that tight financial conditions are limiting the pass-through of energy costs to the broader economy. She also stressed that the ECB should adopt a “measured response” given no evidence of second-round effects." "Her remarks confirm our suspicion that if one central bank hikes in October, it will be the Fed, and not the ECB. Pricing is now 17bp and 9bp, respectively. Our macro team thinks both will wait until December, hence our baseline view for a higher EUR/USD by year-end." "But any hint of strong US data could prompt a test of the 1.1320-30 summer lows, with Lagarde’s comments lifting some support off the euro."

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Banks

September 29, 2026

AUD/USD: RBA hike fails to lift Aussie – MUFG

Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Australian Dollar has slipped back below 0.7000 against the US Dollar, testing the 200-day moving average near 0.7030. Despite the RBA’s fourth rate hike this year to 4.60% and its commitment to tackle persistent inflation, Governor Bullock’s cautious remarks on whether policy is restrictive enough have tempered expectations for further tightening and weighed on AUD. Aussie softens despite RBA move "The Australian dollar has softened overnight falling back below the 0.7000-level against the US dollar." "The pair is currently testing important levels at around the 0.7000-level where the 200-day moving average is also located at close to 0.7030." "The RBA reiterated that they will “continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed”." "Governor Bullock did add though in the press conference that she hopes that four hikes are restrictive enough to slow inflation, but she doesn’t know."

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Energies

September 29, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Stabilize as LNG Demand Rises and Storage Surplus Narrows

US natural gas prices are stabilizing around $3.12/MMBtu after a two-day decline, with the market balancing increased gas availability following the return of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline against stronger LNG feedgas demand and continued hot-weather support. The fundamental picture remains mixed. Production is running near record levels, while LNG demand is increasing and hotter-than-normal temperatures are drawing down the storage surplus. The key question for the coming sessions is whether rising demand can continue to absorb elevated production. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactUS natural gasAround $3.12/MMBtuPrices stabilizing after recent declineMountaineer XPressForce majeure liftedAllows additional regional gas flowsLNG feedgas demand18 bcfd in SeptemberSupports domestic gas demandAugust LNG feedgas17.3 bcfdSeptember showing stronger demandStorage surplusExpected at 2.4% above normalSurplus continues to narrowPrevious storage surplus2.9% above normalIndicates ongoing seasonal drawLower 48 production112.3 bcfd in SeptemberRemains near record levelsAugust productionRecord monthly highLimits upside pressure on pricesWeatherHotter than normalSupports power-sector gas demand Current US Natural Gas Price Action US natural gas prices are trading around $3.12/MMBtu, stabilizing after two consecutive sessions of losses. The market is balancing additional supply availability following the return of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline against stronger LNG demand and weather-related consumption. The pipeline's return is potentially bearish for regional balances because additional gas can flow out of the Marcellus and Utica production areas. However, the broader US market is receiving support from rising LNG feedgas demand and a declining storage surplus. Mountaineer XPress Returns to Service TC Energy lifted the force majeure on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline after repairs were completed. The pipeline's return should allow additional natural gas to move out of the Marcellus and Utica regions over the coming days. Increased pipeline availability can ease regional supply constraints and add gas to downstream markets, creating a near-term source of additional supply. The impact will depend on how quickly those additional volumes reach consuming markets and whether stronger LNG and power-sector demand can absorb them. LNG Demand Continues to Strengthen LNG feedgas demand remains one of the strongest supportive factors for the US natural gas market. Flows to nine major LNG export facilities are averaging around 18 bcfd in September, up from 17.3 bcfd in August. Higher LNG demand removes additional natural gas from the domestic market and provides an important outlet for the country's exceptionally high production levels. As long as LNG feedgas flows remain elevated, the export sector can help offset some of the pressure created by record domestic production. Storage Surplus Continues to Narrow Hotter-than-normal weather is helping reduce the storage surplus that accumulated during periods of strong production and relatively mild spring conditions. Analysts expect inventories for the week ending September 25 to stand around 2.4% above normal, compared with a 2.9% surplus one week earlier. The narrowing surplus is an important development because it suggests that stronger weather-driven demand is gradually bringing inventories closer to seasonal norms. If hot weather persists and power-sector demand remains elevated, further reductions in the storage surplus could provide additional support to prices. US Production Remains Near Record Levels Lower 48 natural gas production is averaging approximately 112.3 bcfd in September, matching the record monthly high established in August. The continued strength of production provides a significant counterweight to rising LNG demand and weather-related consumption. High production means the market has substantial supply available to meet incremental demand, potentially limiting the extent of price increases unless consumption continues to accelerate. The interaction between record production and stronger demand will therefore remain one of the central themes for natural gas traders. Bullish Sentiment LNG feedgas demand has increased to 18 bcfd, up from 17.3 bcfd in August. Hotter-than-normal weather is supporting power-sector natural gas demand. The storage surplus is expected to narrow to 2.4% above normal. Further storage withdrawals could tighten the balance heading into the next seasonal phase. Strong LNG exports provide an important outlet for elevated US production. Bearish Sentiment Lower 48 production is averaging 112.3 bcfd, matching the record monthly high from August. Mountaineer XPress has returned to service, allowing additional gas to flow from the Marcellus and Utica regions. Domestic production remains exceptionally strong, limiting the risk of immediate supply shortages. The market has already experienced a two-day decline, indicating recent selling pressure. Storage remains above normal, despite the recent narrowing of the surplus. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key issue for natural gas prices is whether rising LNG and weather-related demand can continue to absorb record-level production. A continued decline in the storage surplus would provide evidence that demand is tightening the domestic balance. If LNG feedgas flows remain around or above current levels while hot weather persists, the market could continue receiving fundamental support. Conversely, sustained production near 112.3 bcfd combined with additional pipeline availability could limit the upside if demand growth slows. Traders will be watching weekly storage data, LNG feedgas flows, weather forecasts, production levels and pipeline flows for the next indication of the market's direction. Supply Outlook The US supply outlook remains abundant. Lower 48 production is holding around record levels, while the return of Mountaineer XPress should increase transportation capacity from the Marcellus and Utica regions. This provides a significant supply cushion and could limit price gains if domestic demand or LNG consumption weakens. The main supply-side question is whether production growth can continue at current levels without rebuilding the storage surplus. Demand Outlook Demand conditions are becoming more supportive. LNG feedgas flows have increased to 18 bcfd, while hotter-than-normal weather is increasing natural gas consumption for electricity generation. The narrowing storage surplus suggests that these demand increases are beginning to have a measurable impact on the US balance. A continuation of strong LNG demand and hot weather would provide support, particularly if production fails to increase further. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions US natural gas enters the coming sessions with record-level production competing against stronger LNG demand and weather-driven consumption. The return of Mountaineer XPress increases regional supply flexibility, while LNG exports are absorbing a larger share of domestic production. The storage balance will remain particularly important. A continued reduction in the surplus would indicate that demand is gradually tightening the market despite elevated production. The next major signals will come from weekly storage changes, weather forecasts, LNG feedgas demand and evidence of whether Lower 48 production remains at record levels. Currency Hedger View Natural gas is priced internationally in US dollars, making currency movements an important consideration for companies involved in energy trading, imports, exports and international procurement. A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of US dollar-denominated natural gas for international buyers, even when the underlying commodity price remains stable. For energy companies with dollar revenues and non-dollar operating expenses, currency movements can also affect margins and future cash-flow planning. As natural gas prices respond to LNG demand, production and weather conditions, businesses exposed to international energy payments may therefore need to manage both commodity-price risk and foreign-exchange risk. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets US natural gas is currently being pulled in two directions. Record-level production and the return of the Mountaineer XPress pipeline are increasing available supply, while stronger LNG feedgas demand, hotter weather and a narrowing storage surplus are providing countervailing support. The most important development is the relationship between production and consumption. With Lower 48 output averaging 112.3 bcfd, the market has substantial supply available, but LNG demand at 18 bcfd and stronger weather-related consumption are helping absorb those volumes. The storage surplus will provide an important measure of this balance. If the surplus continues to narrow despite record production, it would indicate that demand is becoming increasingly effective at tightening the market. For the coming sessions, traders will therefore be focused on storage data, LNG flows, weather conditions, production and pipeline availability as the next signals for US natural gas prices. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Banks

September 29, 2026

S&P 500: Higher yields pressure equities – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes that rising US yields and Oil prices are weighing on equities. The S&P 500 fell nearly 0.8%, led by larger declines in the Magnificent 7, while defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare posted modest gains. Risk assets react to rate repricing "Moreover, yesterday started to see growing pressure on risk assets as well, as the S&P 500 fell -0.77%, whilst US and European HY spreads reached their widest levels since April." "That backdrop also hit equities on both sides of the Atlantic, with the major indices generally moving lower. In the US, the S&P 500 (-0.77%) fell in a broad-based decline, with matters not helped by a larger fall for the Magnificent 7 (-1.72%)." "There were also signs of stress in other risk assets yesterday, as IG and HY credit spreads widened to levels last seen in April in both the US and Europe. So by the close, US IG (+2bps) and HY (+9bps) had both seen a notable jump, as had European IG (+3bps) and HY (+9bps)."

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CommerzBank

September 29, 2026

US Dollar: Stock-driven flows raise vulnerability – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the US current account deficit remains large at about 3% of GDP and increasingly relies on foreign inflows into US stocks rather than bonds. He stresses that equity flows are far more volatile, tying support for the US Dollar more closely to US stock market performance, household wealth, and private consumption, which could be undermined by a market downturn. Dollar support tied to equities "While in the four years leading up to mid-2024, the total US current account deficit could have been financed almost entirely by inflows into US bonds, inflows into US stocks have become increasingly important in recent quarters." "This means that capital inflows - and thus support for the US dollar - will be more heavily dependent on the performance of the US economy and, consequently, the US stock market." "The US stock market is thus not only responsible for refinancing the US current account deficit but has also become the primary driver of US households’ net worth - and therefore, likely, of private consumption as well."

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Energies

September 29, 2026

Chart of the day: Weather offsets high rollover on NATGAS

Key takeaways US natural gas trades around 3.12 USD per MMBtu following a recent futures contract rollover and pipeline outage. TC Energy resolved the Mountaineer Xpress pipeline failure, erasing the supply risk premium from prices. Record September production and high inventory forecasts weigh on prices while strong LNG exports and extreme short positioning create upside risk. Gas gives back premium from pipeline outage, but weather and LNG prevent deeper discount US natural gas is trading around $3.12 per MMBtu and is falling for the second session in a row. However, it is worth noting one important detail key to further analysis. On September 23, futures contracts rolled over, and this accounts for a significant portion of the spike in quotes visible on the chart. The monthly change of 6.7 percent and the improvement in annual dynamics to minus 6.3 percent largely result from the transition to the new contract series, rather than a real demand impulse. The forward curve on NATGAS during the heating season remains in very high contango to the January contract. Historically, Natgas usually reached its price peak around November. The second factor boosting prices was an outage in the United States itself, not the situation in the Middle East. TC Energy declared force majeure last Thursday on the Mountaineer Xpress pipeline in West Virginia, removing 1.4 to 1.8 billion cubic feet per day from transmission. The market surged to its highest level in two and a half months. On Sunday, however, the company announced that the failure had been resolved, which instantly erased the supply risk premium from prices. Weather works both ways The temperature map from the release date of the EIA report clearly shows above-normal heat in the South, Midwest, and eastern regions of the country, which continues to support cooling demand. However, NOAA's forecast for October 4 to 8 shifts the signal toward the bears. The West is expected to see temperatures well above normal with a probability exceeding 80 percent, the Center and East remain near normal, and cooler weather is expected exclusively in New England and Texas. For a market entering the heating season, this means delayed start of heating demand. In the background, expectations remain for Super El Niño—a warmer than usual autumn and winter—which is the most serious medium-term argument for the bears. Supply and demand balance The EIA report for the week ended September 18 showed an injection of 53 billion cubic feet compared to expectations of 51 and a five-year average of 76. The surplus against seasonal norms narrowed as a result from 118 to 95 billion cubic feet. Inventories are 4.5 percent lower year-over-year, but still 2.9 percent above the five-year average. On the supply side, the picture remains heavy. September production averaging 112.5 billion cubic feet per day is near records, and the EIA estimates that inventories at the end of October will reach 3,985 billion cubic feet, the highest in a decade and 5 percent above normal. The counterweight is exports. Flows to nine major LNG terminals averaged 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September compared to 17.2 in August, and reached 19.0 on Monday, despite the Cove Point terminal being offline for maintenance. European storage facilities are 71 percent full compared to a five-year average of 87 percent, maintaining fierce competition for flexible LNG cargoes between Asia and Europe. Technical analysis Price broke out of a multi-month consolidation bounded below by support around 3.000, tested multiple times since May, but stalled in the supply zone of 3.25 to 3.36, which blocked quotes back in June and July. The current pull-back from the upper edge of this zone is a classic rejection of resistance. An ascending trendline drawn from the August and September lows runs below. However, it is worth emphasizing that the breakout from this consolidation was linked to the rollover. RSI at 58.5 shows growing momentum without an overbought signal. MACD maintains a bullish setup, but the histogram is beginning to shrink, signaling potential fading of the impulse. Price currently sits above the 25-period SMA at 2.954 and the 50-period SMA at 2.858. In a broader context, the structure remains bearish. Quotes broke above the 75-session and 1-year moving averages around 3.12, but remain below the 2-year average at 3.36 and distinctly below the 5-year average at 3.70. Until these two are overcome, we are talking about a bounce within a downtrend, not a regime change. Valuation and positioning The 1-year Z-score is minus 0.30, 2-year is minus 0.50, and 5-year is minus 0.34, so the commodity has emerged from deep discount territory, but is not expensive. The key factor, however, is the futures market. Net speculative positioning fell to around minus 220 thousand contracts, the lowest since 2020 and near the bottom of the oversold range. This is driven by a record number of short positions exceeding 520 thousand contracts. Such extreme positioning creates a real risk of forced short covering on the first cold spell impulse and is currently the strongest argument for the bulls, much stronger than valuation itself. Summary The recent upward move is largely the sum of two one-off effects—contract rollover and pipeline failure—both of which have now faded. Record production and forecasts of the highest inventories in a decade weigh on prices, while rising LNG exports and extreme short positioning from funds create asymmetric upside risk. The path of October weather will be decisive. If a warm scenario materializes, the market will return toward 2.80. If the first real cold spell arrives, the scale of short positions could generate a move much stronger than fundamentals alone would suggest. Nevertheless, at least for now, it appears that after each rollover price will come under downward pressure. On the other hand, any gust of cold weather could mean double-digit price increases given the very low base.

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Banks

September 29, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA hike reinforces hawkish stance – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s macro strategy team notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, in line with expectations. The RBA signalled that inflation remains too high and left the door open to further tightening if needed. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield is now at a post-2011 high around 5.4%. RBA signals willingness to tighten further "The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25bp rate hike, which takes its cash rate target to 4.60%. The move was expected by markets, and its statement said that “inflation is still too high” and they would be willing to raise “the cash rate target further if needed.”" "Meanwhile, Australia’s 10yr government bond yield is up +0.2bps this morning at a post-2011 high of 5.42%."

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Banks

September 29, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA’s hawkish hike caps upside – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.6%, the highest level in about 15 years, and struck a notably hawkish tone. Despite signaling that rates could rise further as inflation broadens beyond energy, the Australian Dollar’s initial gains faded, with markets already pricing nearly two more hikes by mid-2027. Hawkish RBA meets priced hikes "As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% this morning." "Furthermore, the central bank made an effort in its communication to sound as hawkish as possible." "The AUD initially reacted positively to the decision but quickly gave up those small gains."

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Markets

September 29, 2026

Wheat Futures Face Selling Pressure as Weak Exports Offset Tighter Stock Expectations

Wheat futures are under pressure across the major US exchanges as weak export demand continues to weigh on the market, while slower winter wheat planting and expectations for lower September 1 stocks provide some underlying support. Chicago SRW, KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat are all trading lower, with the market now focused on whether tightening domestic inventories and delayed planting can offset the current weakness in US export demand. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactCBOT December Wheat$6.88¾/bushelBroad selling pressureCBOT March Wheat$7.03½/bushelLower alongside nearby contractsKC December Wheat$7.45¾/bushelHRW market remains under pressureMinneapolis December Wheat$7.02¾/bushelSpring wheat also trading lowerWinter wheat planting27% complete7 percentage points behind five-year averageWinter wheat emergence8%Crop remains in early developmentWeekly wheat exports310,635 MT8.62% below previous weekYear-on-year exports64.44% lowerSignificant demand headwindMarketing-year shipments6.343 MMT34.42% below last year's paceSeptember 1 wheat stocksAnalysts expect 1.857 billion bushelsPotentially tighter inventories Current Wheat Price Action Wheat futures are trading lower across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis as selling pressure remains broad across the complex. December CBOT wheat is around $6.88¾ per bushel, while December KC HRW wheat is near $7.45¾ and December Minneapolis wheat is around $7.02¾. The simultaneous weakness across the three exchanges indicates that the market is currently giving considerable weight to weak export demand. However, the downside is being watched against a potentially tighter domestic inventory position and slower winter wheat planting progress. Winter Wheat Planting Falls Behind Average US winter wheat planting has reached 27%, leaving progress 7 percentage points behind the five-year average. Emergence stands at 8%, keeping the new crop in its early development phase. The delayed planting pace introduces an additional supply variable for the market. If weather conditions become less favourable and prevent producers from completing planting within the normal window, concerns over acreage and future production could become more significant. For now, however, the delay has not yet translated into a confirmed production reduction. US Wheat Export Demand Remains Weak Weekly US wheat export inspections totaled 310,635 metric tons, equivalent to approximately 11.41 million bushels. Shipments were 8.62% below the previous week and 64.44% below the same period last year. The Philippines was the largest destination with 120,999 MT, followed by Mexico at 68,640 MT and Nigeria at 54,999 MT. Marketing-year shipments have reached 6.343 million MT, or approximately 233.47 million bushels, but remain 34.42% below the comparable period last year. The export figures remain one of the clearest bearish factors facing US wheat prices. Grain Stocks Become the Next Major Catalyst The quarterly Grain Stocks report will provide the market with a fresh assessment of US wheat inventories as of September 1. Analysts are expecting stocks of approximately 1.857 billion bushels, which would represent a decline of roughly 277 million bushels from the previous year. A result near or below that expectation could reinforce concerns about tightening US supplies. However, the market will need to balance the inventory figure against the current weakness in export demand. Lower stocks are constructive for prices, but weak exports reduce the pace at which those stocks are being consumed. Supply Conditions Remain Mixed The US wheat supply outlook contains both supportive and negative signals. Expected September stocks are lower than a year ago, while winter wheat planting remains behind its normal pace. At the same time, weak export demand means the current supply situation is not being drawn down as rapidly as it might be under stronger international buying. The next phase of the market will therefore depend on whether planting delays and lower inventories develop into a more significant supply concern. International Demand and Currency Effects US wheat competes directly with supplies from other major exporting countries, making currency movements an important part of international price competitiveness. A stronger US dollar can increase the effective cost of US wheat for overseas buyers using other currencies, potentially making competing origins more attractive. Conversely, a weaker dollar can improve the purchasing power of international buyers and make US-origin wheat more competitive in global markets. Currency movements will therefore remain an important secondary factor alongside freight costs, global production and international tenders. Bullish Sentiment Winter wheat planting is 7 percentage points behind the five-year average, creating additional production uncertainty. September 1 wheat stocks are expected at 1.857 billion bushels, potentially indicating tighter inventories. Stocks are expected to be around 277 million bushels below last year, reducing the year-on-year supply cushion. Further planting delays could increase concerns over acreage and crop establishment. A weaker US dollar could improve the international competitiveness of US wheat. Bearish Sentiment Weekly wheat exports are 64.44% below the comparable period last year, highlighting weak demand. Marketing-year shipments are 34.42% below last year's pace. All three major US wheat exchanges are under pressure, indicating broad weakness across the complex. International buyers may face higher effective US wheat costs when the dollar strengthens. Planting delays have not yet resulted in a confirmed material reduction in production potential. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next direction for wheat will depend heavily on the balance between US inventories, export demand and winter wheat planting progress. A Grain Stocks figure below expectations could provide support by reinforcing concerns over tightening domestic supplies. Conversely, another period of weak export inspections would keep demand concerns at the forefront and could limit the market's ability to sustain a recovery. Traders will be watching the Grain Stocks report, weekly export inspections, winter wheat planting progress, weather conditions and movements in the US dollar. Supply Outlook US wheat supply conditions are becoming increasingly mixed. Lower expected September inventories and slower winter wheat planting provide potential support, while the weak export pace is reducing the immediate draw on available supplies. The key supply question is whether the current planting delay develops into a meaningful reduction in acreage or production potential. Demand Outlook Export demand remains the principal weakness in the current wheat market. Marketing-year shipments are running more than 34% below last year's pace, while the latest weekly figure was more than 64% below the comparable week last year. A sustained recovery in international buying would provide an important source of support for US wheat prices. The US dollar will also remain relevant because currency movements influence the effective cost of US wheat for overseas buyers. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Wheat enters the coming sessions with the market balancing potentially tighter US stocks and delayed planting against significantly weaker export demand. The Grain Stocks report could provide the next major catalyst. A lower-than-expected inventory figure could shift attention toward tightening supply, while larger stocks could reinforce the existing demand concerns. Winter wheat planting progress will also remain important as the market assesses whether the current delay is temporary or develops into a more significant production risk. International purchasing activity, the US dollar, weather conditions and weekly export inspections will remain key variables for the next phase of wheat trading. Currency Hedger View Wheat is a globally traded commodity, meaning currency movements can influence both the competitiveness of US supplies and the purchasing power of international buyers. A stronger US dollar can increase the effective cost of US wheat for overseas importers, potentially affecting purchasing decisions and shifting demand toward alternative origins. For businesses involved in wheat imports, exports, agricultural commodities or international food supply chains, currency fluctuations can also change the local-currency cost of future purchases and the value of export revenues. Managing foreign-exchange exposure can therefore be an important part of protecting margins when commodity prices and currencies are moving simultaneously. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Wheat is currently facing a clear conflict between weaker demand and potentially tighter supply conditions. The export figures remain a significant headwind, with cumulative US shipments running well below last year's pace. At the same time, the expected reduction in September stocks and slower winter wheat planting are preventing the supply outlook from becoming entirely bearish. The next important signal will come from the Grain Stocks report and whether the reported inventory confirms expectations for a substantial year-on-year decline. Beyond the domestic supply data, the US dollar remains an important variable for international demand. A sustained period of dollar strength could make US wheat less competitive for overseas buyers, while improved currency conditions combined with stronger international purchasing could provide additional support. The market is therefore likely to remain highly responsive to the relationship between US stocks, planting progress, export demand and currency movements as the next phase of trading develops. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 29, 2026

Coal Prices Rebound Above $145 as Indonesian Supply Tightens and Gas Disruptions Lift Demand

Coal prices are recovering from recent one-month lows, with futures moving above $145 per tonne as tightening supply and disruptions to global gas markets increase the role of coal in power generation. The supply picture is becoming increasingly important. Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, recorded a sharp decline in August shipments, while government production quotas, policy uncertainty and weather conditions are limiting additional export availability. At the same time, elevated LNG prices are encouraging several major economies to increase coal-fired generation, creating additional demand for thermal coal. The market is therefore being supported by both sides of the balance: restricted export supply and stronger demand from power generators seeking alternatives to expensive or disrupted gas supplies. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactCoal FuturesAbove $145/tonneRecovery from recent one-month lowsIndonesian ExportsAugust shipments down 23% y/yReduces seaborne thermal coal availabilityGlobal DemandOn track for a record this yearProvides structural demand supportLNG PricesElevated amid supply disruptionsEncourages switching from gas to coalIndonesia ProductionRestricted by government quotasLimits export growthWeatherStrong El Niño affecting production conditionsAdds supply uncertaintyMiddle EastProlonged conflict disrupting energy flowsIncreases fuel-switching demandChina, India, Japan, South KoreaIncreasing coal reliance amid LNG pressureSupports thermal coal consumption Current Coal Price Action Coal futures have moved back above $145 per tonne, recovering from a one-month low as traders reassess the global supply-demand balance. The rebound reflects growing concern that available seaborne supply may not be sufficient to meet rising demand from power generators. Gas-market disruptions are particularly important. When LNG becomes more expensive or less readily available, utilities have an economic incentive to increase coal generation where existing coal-fired capacity is available. That fuel-switching dynamic is providing support to coal prices even as the longer-term energy transition continues to place structural pressure on coal consumption. Indonesian Exports Tighten Global Supply Indonesia remains the most important factor on the supply side of the thermal coal market. August shipments fell approximately 23% year over year, reaching their lowest level for the month in five years. The decline is significant because Indonesia supplies a substantial share of internationally traded thermal coal. Lower exports mean fewer cargoes are available to buyers in Asia and other importing regions, increasing competition for available supplies. If Indonesian shipments remain below normal levels, international buyers may increasingly compete for coal from Australia, South Africa and other exporters, potentially keeping seaborne prices elevated. Production Quotas Restrict Additional Supply Indonesia's export constraints are not purely weather-related. Government production quotas and policy uncertainty are limiting the ability of producers to rapidly increase output in response to stronger international prices. This is important because higher prices would normally provide an incentive for producers to expand production. When administrative restrictions prevent that response, the market can remain tighter for longer. The combination of lower shipments, production controls and uncertain policy conditions therefore provides an important floor under coal prices. LNG Disruptions Encourage Coal Switching The demand side of the market is being strengthened by disruptions to global gas supplies. Higher LNG prices increase the cost of gas-fired power generation, making coal relatively more attractive wherever utilities have operational flexibility. This is particularly relevant in major Asian economies with large coal-generation fleets. China, India, Japan and South Korea are among the markets where higher LNG costs can encourage greater coal consumption. European utilities can also become more sensitive to coal economics when gas supply is constrained, although environmental policy and generation capacity vary considerably between countries. Middle East Conflict Increases Energy-Security Concerns The prolonged Middle East conflict is increasing uncertainty across global energy markets. Disruptions involving major energy routes can affect LNG availability and freight economics, forcing importing countries to reassess fuel security. Coal can become part of that response where power systems retain sufficient coal-fired capacity. The market is therefore not simply responding to changes in coal production. It is also responding to broader concerns about the reliability and cost of competing fuels. El Niño Adds Another Supply Risk Weather conditions are another factor affecting Indonesian coal production. A strong El Niño can produce hotter and drier conditions across parts of Southeast Asia, affecting mining operations, transportation and water availability. For a major exporter such as Indonesia, prolonged adverse weather can have a direct impact on the amount of coal reaching export terminals. That creates another layer of uncertainty at a time when international demand is already increasing. Global Coal Demand Approaches Record Levels Despite long-term efforts to reduce coal consumption, global demand remains substantial. Global coal consumption is expected to reach a record level, supported in part by rising electricity demand and the need for reliable baseload generation. This creates a significant divergence between long-term energy-transition objectives and short-term electricity-market requirements. When gas prices rise sharply or supply becomes uncertain, coal can remain economically important because existing coal-fired plants can provide dispatchable generation. Bullish Sentiment Indonesian exports have fallen sharply, reducing global seaborne thermal coal availability. Global coal demand is approaching record levels, keeping the underlying market balance tight. High LNG prices encourage fuel switching from gas to coal. Production quotas limit Indonesia's ability to rapidly increase exports. Weather risks from El Niño could further disrupt Indonesian supply. Energy-security concerns are encouraging major power markets to retain coal as an alternative fuel. Bearish Sentiment Coal remains under long-term pressure from the global energy transition. A recovery in LNG supply could reduce the economic incentive for coal-fired generation. Lower gas prices would weaken fuel-switching support for coal. Higher coal prices could encourage alternative generation and reduce marginal demand. Government policies in major economies continue to target lower coal consumption over the longer term. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate direction of coal prices will depend on whether supply restrictions persist while LNG markets remain tight. The most important supply signal will be Indonesian export volumes. Continued weakness would reinforce concerns about seaborne availability. On the demand side, traders will monitor LNG prices and power-generation economics. If gas remains expensive, utilities with flexible generation capacity may continue to favour coal. The market will also watch developments in the Middle East because any improvement in energy transportation conditions could reduce LNG risk premiums and weaken the immediate fuel-switching argument for coal. The key question is therefore whether the current supply constraints are temporary or whether restricted Indonesian exports and elevated gas prices can keep the global coal market tight for an extended period. Supply Outlook The near-term supply outlook remains constrained. Indonesia's sharp decline in August exports is particularly important because it removes a substantial amount of thermal coal from the international market. Production quotas limit the ability of Indonesian miners to respond quickly to higher prices, while El Niño-related weather risks add uncertainty to mining and transportation. Other exporters can potentially increase shipments, but replacing Indonesia's lost volumes would require stronger production and logistics across competing origins. For now, the combination of lower Indonesian exports and strong international demand provides a relatively tight supply backdrop. Demand Outlook Demand is being supported by the economics of electricity generation. High LNG prices are encouraging coal-fired power generation in markets where utilities have existing coal capacity. China and India remain particularly important because of their large electricity systems and significant coal consumption. Japan and South Korea are also important seaborne coal buyers, while European demand can respond to changes in gas and electricity economics. The longer-term outlook remains more complicated because renewable generation, nuclear capacity and energy-transition policies are gradually reducing coal's structural role. However, near-term electricity demand and fuel-security concerns can override that longer-term trend. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coal enters the coming sessions with a combination of restricted Indonesian exports and elevated gas-market risk supporting prices. The first major signal will be whether Indonesian shipments remain below normal. Persistent export weakness would increase competition among international buyers. The second will be LNG pricing. Continued disruption to gas supplies would strengthen the economic case for coal-fired generation, while easing LNG prices could reduce demand pressure. Weather conditions in Indonesia will also remain relevant, particularly if El Niño affects production and transportation. For now, coal prices are being supported by a market where available supply is tightening at the same time that power generators are seeking alternatives to expensive or disrupted gas. Currency Hedger View Coal demonstrates how commodity prices, energy security and currency markets can interact. International coal transactions are generally linked to US-dollar pricing, meaning movements in the dollar can affect the effective cost for buyers and the revenues received by exporters when converted into local currencies. For Indonesian exporters and Asian power generators, changes in the US dollar can therefore influence procurement costs and operating margins even when the underlying coal price remains unchanged. At the same time, the relationship between coal, LNG and crude oil means that energy-market movements can alter the cost structure of international businesses across several commodities simultaneously. For companies involved in energy trading, industrial production, power generation or international commodity payments, managing the associated FX exposure can therefore be an important part of controlling transaction costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Coal prices are recovering because the market is facing a combination of tighter Indonesian export supply and stronger demand from utilities responding to elevated LNG prices. Indonesia's 23% year-over-year decline in August shipments is particularly significant because the country is the world's largest thermal coal exporter. Production quotas and weather risks could make it difficult for supply to recover quickly. At the same time, high LNG prices are encouraging fuel switching in major Asian power markets. That provides a direct demand channel for coal and helps explain why prices can strengthen despite the longer-term transition away from fossil fuels. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by Indonesian export volumes, LNG prices, Middle East energy disruptions, weather conditions and power-generation economics. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 29, 2026

Palm Oil Prices Slide to Eight-Week Low as Rising Malaysian Supply Outpaces Export Demand

Malaysian palm oil futures are under renewed pressure, trading below MYR 4,650 per tonne and reaching an eight-week low as weaker edible oils and declining export demand weigh on the market. The latest shipment estimates indicate that Malaysian palm oil exports have fallen sharply during September, while production has accelerated, creating the prospect of substantially larger inventories at the end of the month. The supply-demand imbalance is becoming the dominant influence on prices. However, losses are being partly limited by firmer crude oil prices, which support the economics of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. Traders are now looking toward Chinese economic data for evidence of whether demand from the world's major commodity-consuming economy can improve. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactMalaysian Palm OilBelow MYR 4,650/tonneEight-week low reflects increasing selling pressureSeptember ExportsDown 15.1%–24.3% versus August paceBearish for near-term demandSeptember ProductionUp 20.84% in first 25 days versus AugustIncreases supply availabilityEnd-September StocksPotentially above 3 million tonnesHigher inventories could pressure pricesIndonesia ExportsJuly exports down 9.87% y/ySignals weaker regional demandCrude OilFirmerSupports biodiesel demand and limits downsideDalian Edible OilsWeakerAdds pressure to palm oil through substitutionChina PMIUpcomingImportant signal for commodity demand Current Palm Oil Price Action Palm oil prices are extending their recent decline, with Malaysian futures reaching their lowest level in approximately eight weeks. The weakness reflects a combination of softer demand and rapidly increasing supply. Export estimates for the first 25 days of September show shipments falling between 15.1% and 24.3% compared with the equivalent period in August, depending on the cargo survey. At the same time, production increased by approximately 20.84% over the same comparison period. That combination is particularly important because inventories can build quickly when production rises while export demand weakens. Malaysian Production Surge Increases Inventory Risk The strongest bearish factor currently facing the market is the rapid increase in Malaysian production. Output during the first 25 days of September was estimated to be more than 20% higher than the comparable August period. If that production pace is maintained through the remainder of the month, Malaysian palm oil stocks could rise above 3 million tonnes. Higher inventories would give refiners and international buyers greater access to physical supply, reducing the urgency to bid aggressively for nearby cargoes. The market will therefore be watching the final production and stock figures closely. Exports Remain the Main Demand Concern The decline in Malaysian shipments is creating the largest immediate demand problem for palm oil. Exports during the first 25 days of September were estimated to have fallen by between 15.1% and 24.3% from the corresponding August period. The exact figure varies between cargo surveyors, but the direction is consistent: export demand has weakened while production has increased. That is a bearish combination for the inventory balance. If exports fail to recover during the remainder of September, the market may need to absorb a larger volume of Malaysian supply into domestic inventories. Indonesian Exports Also Point to Softer Regional Demand Indonesia provides another important signal. Indonesian palm oil exports fell 9.87% year over year to approximately 3.19 million tonnes in July, according to industry data. As the world's largest palm oil producer, Indonesia's export performance provides an important indication of global demand conditions. A simultaneous slowdown in exports from Malaysia and Indonesia would suggest that the weakness is not limited to one country's production or logistics, but reflects broader pressure across the regional vegetable-oil market. Dalian Edible Oils Add Competitive Pressure Palm oil is competing directly with other vegetable oils in international markets. Weaker edible oils on the Dalian market are therefore adding pressure to Malaysian palm oil futures. Buyers can substitute between palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil and other vegetable oils depending on relative prices, availability and end-use requirements. When competing oils decline, palm oil needs either stronger demand or a lower price to maintain its competitive position. The current weakness in Dalian therefore reinforces the bearish pressure coming from Malaysia's rising inventories. Crude Oil Provides a Partial Floor Crude oil is currently providing an important counterweight to the bearish supply picture. Higher crude prices can improve the economics of biofuels and support demand for palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia. This creates a connection between energy markets and vegetable oils. If crude oil remains elevated, palm oil could receive additional support from the biofuel sector even while food and export demand remain softer. However, the strength of this support will depend on whether higher energy prices are sufficient to offset the impact of rapidly rising palm oil inventories. China Demand Becomes Increasingly Important China remains a major consumer of vegetable oils and an important source of commodity demand. The upcoming September PMI data will therefore be closely watched for evidence of whether industrial and consumer activity is improving. A stronger Chinese economic signal could improve expectations for commodity consumption and provide support across edible oils. Conversely, weaker-than-expected activity would reinforce concerns that palm oil exports could remain under pressure. Bullish Sentiment Higher crude oil prices support biodiesel economics, creating an alternative source of palm oil demand. Lower prices can improve palm oil's competitiveness against other vegetable oils. China's economic activity could improve, supporting broader commodity consumption if PMI data strengthens. Indonesia and Malaysia remain central to global biodiesel demand, providing structural support for palm oil consumption. The recent price decline could encourage additional physical buying from price-sensitive importers. Bearish Sentiment Malaysian exports are falling sharply, weakening immediate demand. Production has increased more than 20%, creating significant additional supply. End-month Malaysian inventories could exceed 3 million tonnes, increasing stock pressure. Indonesian exports have also declined, pointing to softer regional demand. Weaker Dalian edible oils reduce palm oil's competitive position. Rising production combined with weaker exports creates a widening short-term supply surplus. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate direction of palm oil prices will depend heavily on whether the current production surge is matched by a recovery in exports. If September shipments remain weak while Malaysian production continues to rise, inventories could increase substantially and place further pressure on futures. The key bullish counterweight is crude oil. Sustained strength in energy prices could improve biodiesel economics and provide additional demand for palm oil. Traders will also watch China's PMI data because stronger economic activity could improve expectations for vegetable-oil consumption. The market therefore has a clear near-term test: can export demand and biodiesel consumption absorb the additional Malaysian production? Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming increasingly bearish for the near term. Malaysia is moving through a period of stronger production, with output during the first 25 days of September estimated to be more than 20% above the August comparison period. If the trend continues, inventories could rise above 3 million tonnes by the end of September. Indonesia's production remains another major source of global supply, although its lower export volumes demonstrate that production growth is not necessarily translating into stronger international demand. For prices to stabilize, the market will need evidence that the current production increase is being absorbed through exports, biodiesel or domestic consumption. Demand Outlook Demand remains the key uncertainty. Food demand is currently showing signs of weakness through lower Malaysian and Indonesian export volumes, while competition from soybean oil and other vegetable oils is increasing. The biodiesel market provides an important source of support, particularly if crude oil remains elevated. China is another major variable. Stronger economic activity could improve vegetable-oil consumption, while weaker activity would add to concerns over international demand. The demand outlook is therefore dependent on three major areas: China, biodiesel and relative vegetable-oil pricing. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Palm oil enters the coming sessions with supply fundamentals dominating the market. Traders will focus first on Malaysian export data and production estimates to determine whether the September inventory build is developing as expected. Crude oil will remain important because a sustained energy-price rally could support palm oil through biodiesel demand and limit the downside. The next major external signal will come from China's September PMI, which should provide additional information on the health of industrial activity and commodity demand. For now, the market remains caught between rapidly rising Malaysian production and weaker exports on one side, and biodiesel demand supported by firmer crude oil on the other. A sustained recovery in exports would help stabilize prices, while continued production growth combined with weak shipments would increase the risk of further inventory accumulation. Currency Hedger View Palm oil demonstrates the close relationship between agricultural commodities, energy markets and currency movements. Malaysian palm oil is priced in ringgit, while much of the international trade surrounding the commodity is ultimately linked to US-dollar pricing and global currency markets. Changes in the ringgit can therefore influence export competitiveness and producer margins. At the same time, crude oil affects palm oil through biodiesel economics, while movements in the US dollar can influence the purchasing power of international buyers. For palm oil traders, food manufacturers, biodiesel businesses and companies making international commodity payments, managing the associated FX exposure can therefore be an important part of controlling overall transaction costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Palm oil is currently under pressure because the supply-demand balance is moving in the wrong direction for prices. Malaysian production is rising sharply while exports are declining, creating the potential for inventories to move above 3 million tonnes. The main support is coming from crude oil and the biodiesel market. If energy prices remain elevated, palm oil could benefit from stronger biofuel economics even if food and export demand remain subdued. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by Malaysian exports, production and stock estimates, crude oil prices and China's economic data. The market needs to see an improvement in demand or a slowdown in supply growth to establish a more durable recovery. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 29, 2026

Cotton Futures Hold Firm as US Harvest Advances While China Trade Signals Support Demand

Cotton futures are holding a firmer tone as improving US-China trade conditions provide some support to the demand outlook, while the advancing US harvest continues to bring additional physical supply toward the market. Futures closed higher across the board, with gains ranging from 4 to 71 points, while crude oil also strengthened and the US dollar index moved modestly higher. The fundamental picture remains mixed. US crop development is progressing ahead of the normal pace, but crop conditions remain relatively weak and the amount of cotton already harvested is still limited. At the same time, China's decision to remove tariffs from several US goods, including cotton, provides a potentially important improvement in the export environment. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactCotton FuturesFutures closed higher across the curveSupports near-term price momentumUS Harvest17% complete, 2 points ahead of normalIncreasing physical availability could limit ralliesUS Crop Conditions35% good/excellentMixed quality and yield expectationsChina TradeTariffs removed on several US goods, including cottonPotentially improves US export demandICE Certified Stocks28,064 balesRelatively limited certified availabilityCotlook A Index93.75 cents/lbPhysical market remains above futuresCrude OilHigher on the sessionProvides broader commodity supportUS DollarSlightly strongerCan weigh on US export competitiveness Current Cotton Price Action Cotton futures are showing improved momentum, with the front part of the curve advancing while deferred contracts are also gaining. The October contract settled at 79.06 cents per pound, while December closed at 82.86 cents and March 2027 at 85.75 cents. The upward movement is notable because it is occurring while the US harvest is progressing ahead of its normal pace. That suggests traders are giving some weight to improving demand prospects and relatively limited certified stocks rather than focusing exclusively on the increasing physical supply from the harvest. The structure of the futures curve also indicates that traders continue to price different supply and demand conditions as the season progresses. US Harvest Continues to Advance US cotton development is moving ahead of the normal seasonal pace. Approximately 70% of the US crop had bolls open, while national harvest progress reached 17%, two percentage points ahead of the normal pace. The faster harvest is potentially bearish because it increases the amount of physical cotton becoming available to merchants and processors. However, faster progress does not necessarily mean a larger crop. Yield and quality remain important, particularly with only 35% of the crop rated good or excellent. The Brugler500 index slipped one point to 294, indicating that overall crop conditions remain a key variable for the final production outlook. Crop Conditions Remain a Key Supply Variable The relatively low good/excellent rating means the market still has to assess how much usable cotton the crop ultimately produces. A rapid harvest can reduce weather risk, but it also provides more information about actual yields. As harvesting expands across the US Cotton Belt, reports of yield performance will become increasingly important for determining whether current production expectations need to be adjusted. If harvested yields prove disappointing, the faster harvest could ultimately become supportive rather than bearish because the market would have clearer evidence of tighter-than-expected supply. China Trade Developments Improve the Demand Outlook China's decision to remove tariffs on several US products, including cotton, provides a constructive signal for the US export market. China remains one of the world's most important cotton consumers and textile producers, making trade policy between the two countries particularly important for US cotton demand. The removal of tariffs does not automatically guarantee a substantial increase in US cotton purchases, but it reduces one of the barriers facing US exporters. The next important signal will therefore be whether improved trade conditions translate into stronger US export commitments and physical purchases. Physical Cotton Market Shows Mixed Signals Physical market indicators remain uneven. The Seam reported only 178 bales of sales at an average price of 63.49 cents per pound, pointing to limited activity in that particular session. Meanwhile, the Cotlook A Index was 93.75 cents per pound, maintaining a substantial premium to nearby futures. ICE certified cotton stocks fell by 1,455 bales, leaving certified inventories at approximately 28,064 bales. The relatively low certified-stock level can provide support to futures, particularly if demand for deliverable supplies increases. However, the very low volume reported through The Seam indicates that physical demand is not uniformly strong across the market. Adjusted World Price Adds Another Variable The Adjusted World Price declined to 66.09 cents per pound, down 283 points over the latest reporting period. The AWP remains an important reference for US cotton competitiveness and domestic marketing conditions. A lower AWP can influence producer marketing decisions and the relative attractiveness of US cotton in international markets, while the relationship between the AWP, futures and international physical prices will remain important as the harvest expands. Crude Oil and the US Dollar Cotton is also being influenced by broader commodity and currency conditions. Crude oil increased by 88 cents per barrel, providing some support to the wider commodity complex. Higher energy prices can increase agricultural production, transportation and processing costs, although the direct impact on cotton demand is less immediate than for energy-linked commodities. The US dollar index also strengthened modestly. A stronger dollar can reduce the competitiveness of US cotton for international buyers because overseas purchasers effectively pay more in their local currencies. The impact is therefore dependent on the scale and persistence of the dollar move. Bullish Sentiment China has removed tariffs on several US goods including cotton, improving the potential export environment. ICE certified stocks remain relatively limited, restricting immediately deliverable supply. Crop conditions remain weak, leaving uncertainty around final US yields. Cotlook A remains well above futures, indicating continued strength in the physical market. Crude oil is providing broader commodity support, helping maintain a firmer risk environment. Stronger export demand could tighten the US balance if Chinese buying increases. Bearish Sentiment The US harvest is advancing ahead of normal, increasing physical availability. Only limited physical sales have been reported, highlighting uncertainty around immediate demand. A stronger US dollar can weigh on export competitiveness. Faster harvest progress reduces weather risk, particularly for cotton that has already reached maturity. China's tariff changes have not yet been accompanied by evidence of a major increase in US cotton purchases. Additional harvested supply could pressure nearby futures if export demand fails to accelerate. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major signal for cotton is likely to come from the interaction between US harvest results and export demand. The market needs to determine whether improving trade conditions with China will translate into actual cotton purchases. If export commitments increase while crop yields disappoint, the combination could provide a stronger foundation for futures. Conversely, if the harvest produces strong yields and additional physical supply reaches the market while export demand remains subdued, prices could face renewed pressure. Traders will therefore be watching harvested yields, US export sales, Chinese buying activity, certified stocks and the dollar. The December contract around the low-80-cent area remains an important reference point for the market as the new-crop supply becomes increasingly available. Supply Outlook US cotton supply is moving into the market as harvesting accelerates. With 17% of the crop already harvested, physical availability should increase significantly through the coming weeks. The key issue is not simply how quickly cotton is harvested, but how actual yields compare with current expectations. The 35% good/excellent rating suggests that the crop has faced meaningful challenges, but the market still needs concrete harvest results before determining the final supply picture. Certified ICE stocks remain relatively low, providing some support to nearby contracts, although the broader new-crop supply should become increasingly important. Demand Outlook Demand remains the most important variable on the bullish side of the market. The removal of Chinese tariffs on US cotton improves the trading environment and could potentially support US export activity. However, traders will want to see evidence in actual sales and shipment data before assigning a larger demand premium to prices. The combination of Chinese textile demand, US export competitiveness and currency movements will therefore remain central to the demand outlook. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cotton is entering a period where the market should receive increasingly reliable information about both US production and international demand. The harvest will provide better evidence of actual yields, while export sales should indicate whether the improved US-China trade environment is translating into stronger demand for US cotton. The dollar will remain an important external influence. A sustained rise in the dollar could make US cotton less competitive internationally, while a weaker dollar would provide the opposite effect. For now, the market is balancing increasing US physical supply against the possibility of stronger Chinese and international demand. The coming sessions should therefore focus on three areas: harvest yields, export commitments and the response of Chinese buyers to the improved tariff environment. Currency Hedger View Cotton highlights the close relationship between commodity prices, international trade and currency markets. US cotton is priced in US dollars, meaning movements in the dollar can directly influence the effective cost for international buyers. A stronger dollar can reduce the competitiveness of US cotton, while a weaker dollar can improve the purchasing power of overseas buyers. The China-US trade relationship adds another layer because changes in tariffs can alter the economics of international cotton purchases even when the underlying commodity price is unchanged. For cotton merchants, textile manufacturers, exporters and businesses making international commodity payments, managing the associated FX exposure can therefore be an important part of controlling overall transaction costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cotton is currently balancing improving trade conditions against increasing US physical availability. The removal of Chinese tariffs on US cotton provides a constructive demand signal, but the market still needs confirmation through actual export purchases. At the same time, the US harvest is advancing ahead of normal, increasing supply availability. Crop conditions remain relatively weak, however, meaning harvested yields will be important in determining whether the additional physical supply is as large as the current pace might suggest. The most important developments ahead will be US harvest results, Chinese buying activity, export sales, certified stocks and the direction of the US dollar. A combination of stronger demand and disappointing yields could tighten the balance, while strong yields and limited export demand would leave the market more exposed to additional supply pressure. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 29, 2026

Sugar Prices Under Pressure as Brazil Exports Rise While El Niño Threatens 2026/27 Global Supplies

Sugar markets are facing competing forces as near-term selling pressure from Brazil and weaker demand signals offsets growing concerns over global production for the 2026/27 season. October NY world sugar #11 recently settled at 18.57 cents per pound, while the forward market remains sensitive to developments in crude oil, the Brazilian real and weather across the major producing regions. The immediate tone is being shaped by Brazil's export competitiveness and uncertainty over demand, but the longer-term supply picture is becoming tighter. Reduced production expectations for Thailand and India, weather risks linked to El Niño and the possibility of Brazilian mills directing more cane toward ethanol are keeping the 2026/27 balance in focus. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactNY Sugar #11Around 18.57 cents/lbPrices remain supported above recent lows but vulnerable to liquidationLondon White SugarForward contracts remain firmReflects tighter refined-sugar supply concernsBrazilLarge producer and exporter with currency-sensitive export flowsWeaker real can encourage additional export sellingCrude OilElevated energy prices are supporting ethanol economicsHigher oil can encourage mills to allocate more cane to ethanolIndiaTight domestic supplies and reduced export availabilityLimits near-term global supplyThailand2026/27 production expected to declineAdds to global deficit concernsEl NiñoIncreasing weather risk for major cane-producing regionsRaises the probability of production lossesGlobal BalanceForecasts increasingly point toward a smaller surplus or deficitProvides medium-term support Current Sugar Price Action Sugar prices are currently caught between bearish near-term fundamentals and increasingly constructive longer-term supply risks. The recent market weakness has been linked to the Brazilian real, demand concerns and expectations for increased availability from Brazil. A weaker real improves the economics of selling sugar into the international market because producers receive more local currency for dollar-denominated exports. At the same time, crude oil remains an important variable. Stronger crude prices improve ethanol economics and can encourage Brazilian mills to allocate a greater proportion of available cane toward ethanol rather than sugar. That would reduce the amount of sugar entering the global market. This creates an important relationship between the energy and sugar markets: higher oil prices can become supportive for sugar if the resulting improvement in ethanol margins changes mill production decisions. Brazil Export Flows Remain a Key Price Driver Brazil remains the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, making the country's production mix and export pace central to the global price outlook. The Brazilian real is particularly important because sugar is priced internationally in US dollars. A weaker real can encourage Brazilian producers to increase export sales, creating additional availability for the international market. That dynamic is currently offsetting some of the bullish influence coming from weather and production risks elsewhere. However, if crude oil remains elevated, Brazilian mills may have greater incentive to direct cane toward ethanol. The market will therefore be watching the sugar-versus-ethanol allocation closely as the 2026/27 production cycle develops. Demand Concerns Create Near-Term Pressure Demand remains one of the main bearish considerations. Open interest in the expiring October NY sugar contract has indicated the possibility of substantial deliveries, with estimates around 1.8 million metric tons. The size of potential delivery relative to recent averages has been interpreted as a sign that nearby physical demand is not particularly strong. This is important because a tightening supply outlook does not automatically translate into higher prices if buyers remain reluctant to increase purchases. For sugar to sustain a stronger rally, improving physical demand will need to accompany the emerging production risks. Global Sugar Deficit Outlook Is Tightening The longer-term supply balance is becoming increasingly important. The International Sugar Organization has projected a 2026/27 global deficit of around 200,000 metric tons, compared with a projected surplus of about 1.1 million tons for 2025/26. Other estimates are more bearish or bullish depending on assumptions around Brazil, India and Thailand, but the broad direction is clear: the large surplus expected for 2025/26 is not expected to carry forward unchanged into the following season. StoneX has recently narrowed its projected 2026/27 deficit to around 900,000 metric tons, compared with a previous estimate of 1.7 million tons. The difference between forecasts highlights how sensitive the global balance is to production assumptions. India Faces Tight Domestic Supply Conditions India is another major influence on the sugar outlook. The country's cumulative monsoon rainfall remained below normal through late September, although conditions improved significantly from the severe rainfall deficit recorded earlier in the season. India is particularly important because it normally contributes substantial export volumes to the global market. Domestic supply constraints have already led to restrictions on exports and increased reliance on imports. India has also allowed up to 1 million metric tons of raw sugar imports without duty through October 31, highlighting the importance of rebuilding domestic availability. Recent domestic sugar prices have eased from their August highs, but opening stocks for the new season remain unusually tight. The country's import requirement is therefore an important signal for the international market. If India remains a buyer rather than an exporter, global availability becomes tighter. Thailand Production Risks Add to the Supply Threat Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter and is another major component of the 2026/27 balance. Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production at approximately 10 million metric tons, representing a substantial decline from the previous season. Lower Thai production would reduce export availability at a time when India may also have less capacity to supply the international market. Weather will remain particularly important. El Niño can create hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia, increasing the risk of lower cane yields and reduced sugar production. El Niño Becomes a Major 2026/27 Variable Weather risk is increasingly becoming one of the most important bullish arguments for sugar. A strong El Niño can disrupt rainfall patterns across Brazil, India and Thailand, the three most important regions for the global sugar balance. The market does not yet have confirmation that weather losses will be severe enough to create a major shortage. However, the potential impact is significant because the projected 2026/27 balance has relatively little room to absorb production disappointments. A relatively modest reduction in output across several major producing regions could therefore transform a small projected surplus into a meaningful deficit. Bullish Sentiment El Niño threatens production across Brazil, India and Thailand. Thailand's 2026/27 crop is expected to decline, reducing export availability. India is becoming a sugar importer, rather than a consistent source of global export supply. Higher crude oil prices can improve ethanol economics, encouraging Brazilian mills to divert cane away from sugar. 2026/27 global balances are tightening, with several forecasts now pointing toward a deficit. Brazilian production risks remain significant if weather disrupts harvesting and cane processing. Bearish Sentiment A weaker Brazilian real can encourage exports, increasing global availability. Nearby demand remains a concern, particularly with large potential deliveries against the expiring NY contract. StoneX has reduced its projected 2026/27 deficit, indicating that supply expectations can change quickly. The 2025/26 global crop remains historically large, providing substantial availability entering the next season. India's duty-free import programme could increase physical availability and reduce domestic price pressure. Higher sugar prices could encourage production and limit demand growth, particularly if consumers and food manufacturers adjust purchasing patterns. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Sugar's next major directional move is likely to depend on whether the market places greater weight on current availability or the tightening 2026/27 balance. In the near term, traders will be watching Brazilian export flows, the Brazilian real, crude oil and physical demand. Continued export selling combined with weak demand could keep prices under pressure. The medium-term picture is more dependent on weather and production forecasts. Any evidence that El Niño is materially reducing cane yields in Brazil, India or Thailand could quickly shift attention toward a potential global deficit. Conversely, improved weather and higher production estimates would reduce the urgency around the supply outlook. The market therefore has two competing narratives: near-term availability versus future production risk. Supply Outlook Global sugar supply is expected to remain relatively abundant through the remainder of the 2025/26 season, but the outlook for 2026/27 is considerably less comfortable. The ISO expects global production to decline from its record 2025/26 level, while the USDA has also projected lower global production for 2026/27. The USDA's outlook calls for global 2026/27 sugar production of approximately 184.9 million metric tons, down from 186.1 million tons in 2025/26. Brazilian production is projected to decline, while Thailand is expected to experience a much larger percentage decline. India is forecast to increase production under the USDA scenario, although weather developments remain an important uncertainty. The key question for supply is whether projected production losses in Brazil and Thailand, combined with India's tighter domestic balance, outweigh potential gains elsewhere. Demand Outlook Global sugar consumption is expected to continue increasing, but the pace of growth remains relatively modest. The USDA projects 2026/27 human consumption at approximately 180 million metric tons, a new record but only modestly above the previous year. This means the market may not require exceptionally strong demand growth to tighten. If production declines while consumption continues to rise gradually, the balance can tighten through supply deterioration alone. For the coming months, physical buying activity will therefore be important. A recovery in demand alongside production concerns would provide a stronger foundation for a sustained price advance. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Sugar is entering a period where weather, energy markets and currency movements are likely to become increasingly important. In the immediate term, traders will monitor Brazilian export selling and the Brazilian real, particularly because currency weakness can make exports more attractive. Crude oil will remain another major signal. Sustained high oil prices could strengthen ethanol economics and alter Brazilian mills' sugar allocation decisions. Beyond the nearby market, attention will increasingly shift toward 2026/27 production forecasts in Brazil, India and Thailand. The key question is whether the emerging production risks are sufficient to convert a relatively balanced global market into a meaningful deficit. For now, the sugar market remains divided between near-term supply availability and longer-term weather-driven tightening risk. That tension is likely to keep volatility elevated as new crop information becomes available. Currency Hedger View Sugar demonstrates how commodity markets and currency markets can directly interact. Because internationally traded sugar is predominantly priced in US dollars, movements in the Brazilian real can influence export economics and producer selling. A weaker Brazilian real can make Brazilian sugar more competitive internationally, while a stronger real can reduce the incentive to sell into the export market. Crude oil adds another layer because energy prices influence the economics of converting sugarcane into ethanol rather than sugar. For businesses involved in sugar trading, food manufacturing, agricultural imports or international commodity payments, these currency and commodity movements can affect margins even when the underlying physical requirement remains unchanged. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Sugar prices are currently being pulled in two directions. Near-term availability, Brazilian export competitiveness and soft demand are creating pressure, while the 2026/27 outlook is becoming increasingly dependent on weather and production risks. The most important development to watch is whether the projected global deficit becomes more pronounced as the effects of El Niño become clearer. Brazil's sugar-versus-ethanol production mix, India's domestic supply position and Thailand's next crop will be central to that assessment. If production forecasts continue to fall while demand remains steady, the market could move from a period of ample availability toward a much tighter global balance. If weather improves and major producers maintain output close to current expectations, the bearish influence of current supply and demand conditions could remain dominant. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 29, 2026

Coffee Prices Rally as Brazil Dryness Threatens 2026/27 Crop Prospects

Coffee prices have rebounded sharply, with December arabica climbing around 3.64% and November robusta gaining approximately 1.34% as concerns over Brazil's next crop trigger fund short covering. Arabica has moved to a two-week high, while robusta has reached a one-week high as traders reassess the weather outlook during a critical stage of Brazil's coffee production cycle. The immediate focus is on Brazilian flowering conditions. Dry weather concerns have emerged across Minas Gerais, the country's largest arabica-producing region, with limited rainfall expected over the coming week. The timing is important because flowering is critical for determining the potential size of the 2026/27 crop. However, the broader supply picture remains bearish. The International Coffee Organization expects a record global 2025/26 crop and a three-million-bag surplus, while the USDA is forecasting another record global crop for 2026/27. Coffee is therefore caught between near-term weather risk and historically large future supply expectations. The next significant price move will depend on whether concerns over Brazilian flowering develop into a genuine production threat or whether improving supply fundamentals regain control. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactDecember ArabicaUp around 3.64%Strong short-covering rallyNovember RobustaUp around 1.34%Higher on weather and supply concernsBrazil 2026 Crop Estimate67.6 million bagsLarge production outlook remains bearishBrazil Arabica48.21 million bags expectedStrong increase in arabica supplyGlobal 2025/26 CropRecord 183.6 million bagsCreates surplus pressureGlobal 2025/26 BalanceAround 3 million-bag surplusLimits sustained upside potentialBrazil WeatherDryness concerns during floweringCreates 2026/27 crop riskVietnam WeatherImproved rainfall and soil moistureSupports robusta productionArabica InventoriesAround 253,203 bagsStill historically lowRobusta InventoriesAround 5,398 lotsNear a 10-month highEl NiñoIncreasing weather uncertaintyPotential medium-term production risk Current Coffee Price Action Coffee prices have recovered strongly after spending much of the past month under pressure. December arabica has reached a two-week high, while robusta has climbed to a one-week high as traders respond to the possibility that dry weather could affect Brazil's next harvest. The rally also reflects short covering after the market recently reached multi-month lows. This is important because the current move does not necessarily indicate that the broader supply outlook has fundamentally changed. Instead, traders are reassessing the immediate weather risk while global production forecasts remain historically large. The sustainability of the rally will therefore depend on whether the Brazilian weather outlook deteriorates further. Brazil Flowering Conditions Become the Immediate Price Driver Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop is entering an important developmental stage, making rainfall particularly significant. Minas Gerais is the country's largest arabica-producing region, and forecasts currently indicate limited rainfall over the coming week. Dry conditions during flowering can affect the development of coffee cherries and ultimately reduce yield potential if moisture stress becomes sufficiently severe. This has encouraged traders to reduce bearish positions and increase attention on weather forecasts. The key question is whether the current dryness is temporary or represents the beginning of a more persistent moisture deficit. Brazil Production Outlook Remains Large Despite the latest weather concerns, Brazil continues to have a substantial production outlook. Conab has raised its 2026 coffee production estimate to approximately 67.6 million bags, compared with its previous estimate of 66.7 million bags. Arabica production is expected to reach around 48.21 million bags, representing an increase of approximately 34.8% year over year. Robusta production, however, is expected to decline around 6.6% to approximately 19.39 million bags. The large increase in arabica production is particularly important because it provides significant additional supply potential for the world's largest arabica-producing country. Brazil Exports Are Adding to Current Global Supply Brazil's harvest is progressing toward completion, and the resulting export flow is adding physical coffee to international markets. Brazil exported approximately 4.155 million bags in August, a record for the month and around 31% above the previous year. Arabica exports increased approximately 26%, while robusta shipments increased about 54%. The increase demonstrates that the current physical supply situation remains comfortable despite the recent price rally. As more Brazilian coffee reaches international buyers, futures markets face competition from readily available physical supply. Vietnam Provides Additional Robusta Supply Vietnam's production outlook is also weighing on robusta prices. The world's largest robusta producer has benefited from improved rainfall, with better soil moisture supporting cherry development in the Central Highlands. Vietnamese coffee exports increased approximately 13.7% during January-August, reaching around 1.33 million metric tons. The country's 2025/26 production is also expected to increase around 6% to approximately 1.76 million metric tons, representing a four-year high. The combination of stronger Vietnamese exports and improved growing conditions creates a significant supply headwind for robusta. Arabica and Robusta Inventories Are Sending Different Signals Inventory data is highlighting an important divergence between the two markets. ICE arabica inventories have recovered from their recent 27-year low of 217,646 bags, but remain relatively tight at around 253,203 bags. Low arabica inventories provide an important underlying source of support because nearby physical availability remains limited. Robusta inventories tell a different story. ICE robusta stocks have climbed to approximately 5,398 lots, their highest level in around ten months. This creates a more bearish inventory backdrop for robusta compared with arabica. The difference could become increasingly important if arabica supply remains constrained while robusta availability continues improving. Global Coffee Supply Forecasts Remain Bearish The larger global supply outlook remains a major obstacle to sustained price gains. The International Coffee Organization expects 2025/26 global coffee production to reach approximately 183.6 million bags, a record level and an increase of around 4.4%. Consumption is forecast at approximately 180.6 million bags, leaving the market with a surplus of around 3 million bags. The USDA is even more bullish on future production, forecasting 2026/27 global output at approximately 189.7 million bags, an increase of around 6% and another record. World ending stocks are also expected to increase. This means coffee would need a meaningful deterioration in production expectations to overcome the broader surplus narrative. El Niño Creates a Longer-Term Weather Risk The developing El Niño pattern introduces another variable into the 2026/27 production outlook. El Niño can disrupt normal rainfall patterns across major coffee-producing regions, potentially creating drought, excessive rainfall or temperature extremes. For Brazil, the immediate concern is whether rainfall becomes insufficient during flowering. For Asia, changing rainfall patterns could also affect production in Vietnam and other producing countries. The weather risk therefore extends beyond Brazil, although the country's enormous role in global arabica supply makes Brazilian conditions particularly important. Bullish Sentiment Dry conditions in Minas Gerais are raising concerns about Brazilian flowering and the 2026/27 crop. Arabica inventories remain historically low, despite their recent recovery. El Niño creates additional weather uncertainty across South America and Asia. Brazilian arabica production is highly sensitive to flowering conditions, making near-term weather particularly important. Fund short covering can accelerate rallies when weather concerns emerge after a prolonged decline. Bearish Sentiment Global coffee production is forecast at record levels, limiting the potential for a sustained supply shortage. The ICO expects a 3 million-bag surplus for the 2025/26 season. USDA forecasts another record global crop in 2026/27, with output approaching 190 million bags. Brazilian coffee exports are exceptionally strong, adding physical supply to international markets. Vietnamese production and exports are increasing, particularly supporting robusta availability. Robusta inventories have climbed to a 10-month high, creating additional pressure on that market. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The current rally is primarily a weather-driven reaction rather than confirmation that the global coffee market has moved into structural shortage. The key issue is whether dry conditions in Brazil persist through the flowering period. If rainfall remains limited and crop conditions deteriorate, traders could continue reducing short positions and increase risk premiums for the 2026/27 Brazilian crop. If rainfall improves and flowering develops normally, the market is likely to refocus on the record production forecasts and expanding global supply. Arabica's historically low inventories provide an additional source of support, meaning the market could remain more sensitive to supply disruptions than the headline global surplus suggests. The most important signals will therefore be Brazilian rainfall, flowering progress, crop estimates, export volumes and ICE inventories. Supply Outlook Near-term coffee supply remains substantial. Brazil's harvest is providing significant export volumes, while Vietnam is also contributing stronger robusta availability. The medium-term supply outlook is more uncertain because Brazil's next crop is still at a sensitive stage of development. The current production estimates remain large, but they can change materially if weather conditions deteriorate during flowering and cherry development. The supply outlook therefore depends increasingly on whether the current Brazilian weather concern develops into a measurable reduction in crop potential. Demand Outlook Demand remains important but is currently being overshadowed by production expectations. The projected global surplus indicates that production is expected to exceed consumption during the current season. However, lower prices can encourage additional buying, while sustained growth in coffee consumption can gradually absorb additional supply. If the market begins to see evidence of stronger consumption alongside declining arabica inventories, the current surplus narrative could become less influential. For now, traders remain more focused on production and weather than on a major change in global consumption. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coffee prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to weather forecasts as Brazil's flowering period develops. The immediate bullish catalyst would be continued dryness across Minas Gerais or evidence that moisture stress is affecting flowering and early crop development. The main bearish catalyst would be a return of beneficial rainfall, allowing traders to refocus on Brazil's large production forecast and the broader global surplus. Arabica and robusta are also likely to continue displaying different fundamentals. Historically low arabica inventories provide underlying support, while rising robusta stocks and stronger Vietnamese supply create greater downside pressure in that market. The coming sessions will therefore centre on Brazilian rainfall, flowering conditions, Vietnam's crop outlook, global inventories and updated production estimates. Currency Hedger View Coffee highlights the close relationship between commodity prices, agricultural supply and foreign exchange markets. Coffee is predominantly traded in US dollars, meaning movements in the dollar can affect the effective cost for international buyers and influence the competitiveness of producing countries. For coffee importers, roasters, manufacturers and international traders, the combination of volatile coffee prices and USD exchange-rate movements can materially affect purchasing costs and margins. Brazil and Vietnam are also major coffee exporters, making currency movements particularly relevant when assessing the competitiveness of their exports and the local-currency value of international coffee revenues. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Coffee is currently balancing a powerful short-term weather catalyst against a much larger global supply story. The immediate rally reflects concerns that dry conditions in Brazil could threaten flowering and reduce the potential size of the 2026/27 crop. Historically low arabica inventories provide additional support and leave the market sensitive to any deterioration in physical availability. However, the broader supply outlook remains substantial. Brazil is producing and exporting large volumes, Vietnam's robusta supply is improving, and both the ICO and USDA are forecasting historically large global production. The next phase of the market will therefore depend heavily on Brazilian weather. If rainfall remains insufficient through the critical flowering period, the market could continue pricing additional production risk. If conditions improve, attention is likely to return to record global production and surplus expectations. For traders, the central question is whether the current weather threat becomes a genuine crop problem or remains a temporary interruption within an otherwise well-supplied global coffee market. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 29, 2026

Cocoa Prices Under Pressure as Record Supplies Clash With 2026/27 Crop Risks

Cocoa prices are facing renewed pressure as strong supplies from the Ivory Coast and rising exchange inventories outweigh concerns about the quality and size of the next West African crop. December New York cocoa is trading around 0.53% lower, while December London cocoa is down approximately 0.71%, with both markets retreating from recent highs. The immediate supply picture remains bearish. Ivory Coast farmers have shipped 2.18 million metric tons of cocoa to ports during the current international marketing year, approximately 19.8% above the comparable year-earlier period. ICE cocoa inventories have also climbed to around 3.45 million bags, their highest level in more than two years. However, the longer-term outlook is becoming more complicated. Early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop point to weaker pod development, while Ghana is also expecting lower production. Persistent rainfall and disease concerns are creating additional uncertainty around bean quality, while the developing El Niño pattern could create more difficult growing conditions across West Africa. The cocoa market is therefore balancing abundant current supply against potentially tighter future production, leaving weather, crop development, inventories and demand as the key variables for the next phase of price direction. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactDecember New York CocoaDown around 0.53%Shows renewed selling pressureDecember London CocoaDown around 0.71%Confirms weakness across both major contractsIvory Coast Shipments2.18 MMT, up 19.8% y/yStrong bearish supply signalICE Inventories3.45 million bagsHighest level in more than two yearsIvory Coast 2025/26 Crop2.06 MMT, up 30%Increases current-season supply2026/27 Ivory Coast OutlookEarly estimates point to lower productionProvides medium-term supportGhana 2026/27 OutlookLower production expectedAdds potential supply riskWest African WeatherHeavy rain, limited sunshineCreates quality and disease concernsEl NiñoDeveloping weather riskPotentially negative for future yieldsGlobal DemandMixed by regionCreates uncertainty for consumption growth Current Cocoa Price Action Cocoa prices have retreated after recently reaching elevated levels, with New York cocoa having posted an almost one-year high at the end of August and London cocoa reaching a similar high at the start of September. The market has since experienced a significant correction, including a move to two-month lows as traders responded to evidence of strong Ivory Coast production. The latest decline reflects the strength of the current supply pipeline. Large arrivals from the world's largest cocoa producer are making it increasingly difficult for prices to sustain rallies based solely on future crop concerns. However, the market remains sensitive to weather developments because the current supply surplus does not necessarily guarantee a similar balance for the next season. Ivory Coast Supplies Remain the Dominant Near-Term Bearish Factor The Ivory Coast remains the most important influence on the immediate cocoa balance. Farmers have shipped approximately 2.18 MMT during the current international marketing year, representing an increase of nearly 20% from the comparable period. The country's cocoa regulator has also reported approximately 2.06 MMT of production for the June 2025 to June 2026 period, around 30% higher than the previous season. These figures demonstrate how dramatically the supply situation has improved compared with the period of extreme tightness that previously pushed cocoa prices toward record levels. For the near term, continued strong arrivals are likely to keep pressure on futures unless demand accelerates or weather begins to threaten the next crop more seriously. ICE Inventories Reinforce the Bearish Supply Picture Exchange-monitored inventories are providing another important signal. ICE cocoa stocks have risen to approximately 3.45 million bags, the highest level in more than two years. Increasing inventories generally indicate that available physical cocoa is becoming more plentiful relative to immediate consumption requirements. That makes it harder for futures prices to maintain a substantial scarcity premium. If inventories continue rising through the coming sessions, traders could become increasingly confident that the current market has sufficient nearby supply. A sustained inventory decline, however, would change the balance and could indicate that stronger demand is beginning to absorb the additional beans. Heavy Rain Creates Quality and Harvest Risks Weather is providing an important counterweight to the bearish supply data. Cocoa farmers in the Ivory Coast have reported heavy rainfall and persistent cloudy conditions that are disrupting harvesting and making it difficult to dry beans. Limited sunshine also increases the risk of quality problems, while wet conditions can encourage the spread of black pod disease. This creates a distinction between cocoa quantity and cocoa quality. The current crop may be large, but if a significant portion of production suffers quality deterioration, the effective availability of high-quality beans could be lower than headline production figures suggest. 2026/27 Ivory Coast Crop Faces Greater Uncertainty The outlook for the next Ivory Coast crop is considerably less comfortable. Early surveys have indicated below-average cherelle formation, poor pod development and weaker crop potential. Some preliminary assessments have placed the 2026/27 crop around 1.8 MMT, approximately 18% below the previous season's roughly 2.2 MMT. This is important because the market is currently well supplied, but traders are increasingly looking beyond the current harvest toward the next production cycle. If early crop assessments prove accurate, today's surplus could gradually become less comfortable as the new season progresses. Ghana Production Outlook Adds Further Supply Risk Ghana is facing a similar challenge. The country's cocoa authorities have projected lower production for the 2026/27 season, with estimates ranging from approximately 450,000 to 550,000 MT compared with around 750,000 MT projected for the previous season. Disease, ageing cocoa farms and potentially adverse weather conditions are among the factors threatening production. However, Ghana's current-season output remains strong. Approximately 750,000 MT had been harvested for the 2025/26 season, representing an increase of around 25.6% from the previous year. This again highlights the difference between the immediate and forward supply outlook. El Niño Could Become a Major Medium-Term Price Driver The developing El Niño pattern represents one of the most important longer-term variables for cocoa. El Niño conditions can produce warmer and drier weather across parts of West Africa, reducing soil moisture and placing additional stress on cocoa trees. If the pattern intensifies, production expectations for the 2026/27 season could deteriorate further. This would potentially shift the market from a situation dominated by surplus inventories toward one where traders begin pricing a tighter future balance. The impact will depend heavily on the actual weather experienced across the major producing regions rather than the existence of El Niño alone. Global Cocoa Demand Remains Mixed Demand signals are not providing a uniform direction. European cocoa grindings declined 4.6% in the second quarter to approximately 316,366 MT, representing the lowest second-quarter level in six years. North American grindings, however, increased 7.7% year over year to approximately 109,659 MT, significantly exceeding expectations. Asian demand was even stronger, with second-quarter grindings increasing approximately 25% to 224,646 MT. The regional divergence means that global demand cannot be viewed through a single market. Weak European processing is a bearish signal, but stronger North American and Asian grindings indicate that lower prices or improved availability could be stimulating consumption elsewhere. Bullish Sentiment The 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop outlook is weaker, with early assessments pointing to poor pod development and lower potential production. Ghana is expecting a smaller crop, with disease, ageing trees and weather risks threatening output. Heavy rainfall and limited sunshine are increasing concerns about cocoa quality and black pod disease. El Niño creates a medium-term weather risk, potentially reducing yields across West Africa. Asian and North American cocoa demand remains strong, helping offset weaker European processing activity. Bearish Sentiment Ivory Coast shipments are running almost 20% above last year's level, demonstrating strong current physical supply. Ivory Coast production increased approximately 30% in the latest reported crop period. ICE inventories have reached a more than two-year high, reducing immediate scarcity concerns. Global cocoa supplies are currently considered well supplied, providing greater protection against short-term disruptions. European cocoa grindings have weakened significantly, indicating demand pressure in one of the world's major processing regions. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The cocoa market is increasingly divided between a bearish nearby supply picture and a potentially tighter 2026/27 balance. In the short term, continued strong Ivory Coast arrivals and elevated ICE inventories could keep rallies under pressure. The market will need evidence of stronger demand or a meaningful deterioration in physical supply before a sustained upside move becomes easier to establish. The medium-term picture is less straightforward. If poor pod development, disease and adverse weather reduce the next West African crop, traders could begin pricing a smaller 2026/27 supply balance well before the actual harvest develops. The key signals will therefore be inventory trends, Ivory Coast arrivals, crop quality, Ghanaian production estimates and weather across West Africa. Supply Outlook Near-term cocoa supply remains abundant, led by strong Ivory Coast production and elevated exchange inventories. That provides a substantial buffer against temporary disruptions and should continue to limit scarcity concerns in the immediate market. However, the supply outlook beyond the current season is becoming less comfortable. Lower early crop estimates from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, combined with disease and weather risks, could reduce production during the next cycle. The market will therefore need to determine whether current surplus conditions are temporary or represent a more durable improvement in global availability. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed across the major processing regions. European grindings are showing significant weakness, suggesting that high cocoa costs and changes in confectionery demand remain restrictive. North American and Asian processing activity is considerably stronger, however, demonstrating that consumption has not weakened uniformly. Lower cocoa prices could eventually encourage additional buying and improve processing margins, potentially helping absorb some of the current surplus. The next important demand signal will be whether stronger Asian and North American activity can continue while European consumption stabilises. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cocoa prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to the contrast between strong current supplies and increasingly uncertain future production. The bearish case remains strongest while Ivory Coast arrivals remain elevated and ICE inventories continue to build. The bullish case would strengthen if inventories begin declining, crop-quality problems intensify or early estimates for the 2026/27 West African crop are revised lower. Weather will become increasingly important as the new crop develops. Persistent rainfall could damage quality in the near term, while a shift toward excessively dry conditions associated with El Niño could create a more serious threat to future yields. Traders will therefore be watching Ivory Coast shipments, ICE inventories, Ghanaian crop expectations, West African weather, disease reports and regional cocoa grindings for evidence of which side of the market is gaining control. Currency Hedger View Cocoa demonstrates the close relationship between agricultural commodities, international trade and currency markets. Cocoa futures are predominantly priced in US dollars, meaning movements in the dollar can affect the effective cost of cocoa for international buyers and influence the competitiveness of producing countries. For businesses involved in cocoa trading, chocolate manufacturing, food production or international commodity transactions, changes in both cocoa prices and foreign exchange rates can therefore affect margins. The current divergence between strong West African supply and changing crop expectations also highlights the importance of monitoring both physical commodity exposure and the currency exposure associated with international payments. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cocoa remains a market of two very different time horizons. The near-term balance is well supplied, with strong Ivory Coast shipments, higher production and historically elevated ICE inventories keeping pressure on prices. The forward balance is less certain. Early indications of weaker 2026/27 production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, combined with disease, heavy rainfall and El Niño risks, provide a potential foundation for tighter supplies later in the season. The key question for traders is whether the current surplus can remain large enough to offset the risks developing in the next crop. For the coming sessions, inventory and shipment data will remain central to the immediate price direction, while weather and crop-development reports are likely to become increasingly important for the medium-term outlook. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 29, 2026

Oil Prices Hold Above $93 as US-Iran Deadlock Keeps Global Supply Risk Elevated

Crude oil is trading above $93 per barrel, extending recent gains as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to outweigh signs of improving physical supply from Saudi Arabia. The market remains focused on the risk that prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could keep a significant portion of Middle Eastern oil flows exposed to geopolitical and logistical pressure. Saudi Arabia has restored flows through its East-West pipeline at around 3.5 million barrels per day, providing an important alternative route to the Red Sea that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. However, the return of the pipeline has not removed the broader supply risk because the market remains uncertain about the duration of the US-Iran conflict and the prospects for reopening the strategic waterway. The result is a crude market caught between improving alternative supply routes and a persistent geopolitical risk premium. Traders will increasingly focus on whether diplomatic progress can reduce the disruption premium or whether continued uncertainty forces prices higher. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactWTI CrudeAbove $93 per barrelMaintains an elevated geopolitical risk premiumBrent CrudeAbove $105 per barrelReflects continuing global supply concernsUS-Iran TalksLimited progress and significant uncertaintySupports higher risk premiumStrait of HormuzReopening remains uncertainMajor upside supply risk if disruption persistsSaudi East-West PipelineFlows restored around 3.5 million bpdProvides an alternative export route and limits upside pressureMiddle East SupplyExports recovering but logistical constraints remainPhysical availability remains vulnerableSanctions PolicyPotential relief linked to progress on a nuclear agreementCould eventually increase Iranian supplyShipping CostsElevated due to rerouting and congestionAdds to delivered crude costs Current Crude Oil Price Action WTI crude is holding above $93 per barrel, while Brent remains above $105, keeping both benchmarks at elevated levels. The price action shows that traders are placing greater weight on the uncertainty surrounding future supply than on the immediate improvement in Saudi export infrastructure. The restoration of the East-West pipeline provides additional flexibility for Saudi Arabia, but the market still has to account for the possibility that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could persist. That creates a two-sided market in which diplomatic headlines can produce sharp reversals in either direction. US-Iran Negotiations Remain the Primary Price Driver The direction of crude prices is increasingly dependent on developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Recent discussions have produced limited progress, while Iranian officials have expressed doubt that an agreement capable of ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz can be reached in the near term. The uncertainty is important because a diplomatic breakthrough could reduce the geopolitical premium rapidly, while another deterioration in negotiations could have the opposite effect. Markets are therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to statements from Washington and Tehran, particularly anything relating to the reopening of Hormuz, sanctions and future Iranian oil exports. Strait of Hormuz Remains the Key Supply Risk The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the oil outlook because it is one of the world's most important energy transportation routes. Even with alternative pipelines and increased efforts to redirect cargoes, a prolonged disruption would create significant logistical challenges for producers and buyers. The market is therefore not simply pricing the amount of oil currently available. It is also pricing the cost and reliability of getting that oil to international customers. Higher tanker costs, longer routes, congestion and the need for alternative transfer points can all increase the effective cost of crude even when headline production remains relatively stable. Saudi East-West Pipeline Reduces but Does Not Remove Supply Pressure Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has resumed operations at approximately 3.5 million barrels per day, restoring a major route between the country's eastern oil-producing region and the Red Sea. The pipeline has a total capacity of around 7 million barrels per day, meaning current flows remain below its maximum capability. Its return is nevertheless significant because it gives Saudi Arabia additional flexibility to export crude without relying entirely on the Strait of Hormuz. If flows continue to increase toward normal operating levels, some of the immediate supply pressure could ease. However, the market will continue monitoring whether the pipeline can operate reliably and whether additional infrastructure remains vulnerable to regional attacks. Potential Sanctions Relief Creates a Longer-Term Supply Variable Another important factor is the possibility of sanctions relief for Iran if meaningful progress is achieved on a nuclear agreement. A sustained diplomatic agreement could eventually allow additional Iranian crude to return to international markets. That would introduce a fundamentally different price dynamic. Instead of the market focusing exclusively on disrupted supply, traders would begin assessing how quickly Iranian production and exports could recover and how much additional crude could reach international buyers. Any credible movement in that direction could therefore place downward pressure on prices, although the timing and scale of additional Iranian supply would remain uncertain. Bullish Sentiment US-Iran negotiations remain unresolved, keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated. Strait of Hormuz uncertainty continues to create concern over the reliability of Middle Eastern crude shipments. Shipping and logistical costs remain elevated, increasing the effective cost of transporting crude. Saudi pipeline flows remain below maximum capacity, meaning the alternative export route has not completely restored previous flexibility. Any deterioration in regional security could quickly tighten physical supply expectations. Bearish Sentiment Saudi Arabia has restored East-West pipeline flows, providing an important alternative route around Hormuz. Middle Eastern exports are recovering, improving physical availability compared with the most disruptive phase of the crisis. A diplomatic breakthrough could sharply reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices. Potential sanctions relief for Iran could eventually increase global oil supply. Elevated prices may encourage additional production and demand restraint, particularly if the current price environment persists. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key issue for crude is whether the current geopolitical premium becomes more deeply embedded or begins to unwind. A sustained move higher would require continued evidence that supply disruption around the Strait of Hormuz will persist or that alternative export routes cannot compensate for the disruption. Conversely, credible progress toward reopening Hormuz could trigger a rapid reassessment of supply risk and place significant downward pressure on prices. For now, the market remains highly headline-sensitive. Traders will be watching US-Iran negotiations, Saudi pipeline throughput, shipping activity and any signs of changes to sanctions policy. The $93 area in WTI remains an important reference point. Sustained trading above this level would keep attention focused on the possibility of another move higher, while a meaningful decline would suggest that improving supply logistics or diplomatic developments are beginning to outweigh geopolitical risk. Supply Outlook The near-term supply outlook remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainty rather than a straightforward lack of production. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restart is an important improvement, particularly because it provides an export route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. Further increases in pipeline throughput would provide additional relief. However, the broader regional supply network remains vulnerable to disruptions involving infrastructure, shipping routes and tanker availability. The biggest potential change to the supply outlook would come from a sustained diplomatic agreement involving Iran. Greater stability around Hormuz combined with sanctions relief could eventually increase available crude supply and reduce transportation risk. Demand Outlook Oil demand remains supported by continued global economic activity, but elevated crude prices create increasing risks for consumption. Higher gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and industrial energy costs can eventually affect transportation activity, manufacturing margins and household spending. If prices remain elevated for an extended period, demand growth could slow as consumers and businesses respond to higher energy costs. For now, however, the market's immediate focus remains supply rather than demand destruction. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Crude oil is likely to remain highly volatile as traders balance improving Saudi export infrastructure against persistent uncertainty surrounding US-Iran relations. The most important bullish catalyst would be a renewed deterioration in regional supply conditions or evidence that the Strait of Hormuz will remain disrupted for an extended period. The most important bearish catalyst would be credible diplomatic progress capable of restoring normal shipping conditions and reducing the geopolitical premium. Saudi pipeline throughput will also remain important. Further increases would improve physical supply flexibility, while any renewed disruption could quickly reverse that improvement. The coming sessions are therefore likely to remain driven by geopolitical headlines, pipeline flows, tanker movements, sanctions policy and the outlook for Hormuz rather than by crude fundamentals alone. Currency Hedger View Oil demonstrates the close relationship between commodity prices, currencies and international business costs. Crude is predominantly priced in US dollars, meaning higher oil prices can increase the effective cost for businesses and consumers operating in currencies other than the dollar. At the same time, energy-importing economies can face additional pressure on trade balances and currency values when crude prices remain elevated. For businesses with international energy payments, transportation costs, commodity exposure or USD-denominated transactions, movements in both oil and foreign exchange can therefore affect margins simultaneously. The current Middle East supply risk also highlights why commodity exposure and currency exposure should not always be considered separately. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Crude oil remains caught between two opposing forces: improving alternative supply routes and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The restoration of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline provides meaningful protection against further disruption, but the market has not yet received sufficient evidence that the wider Middle East supply risk is disappearing. The direction of US-Iran negotiations will therefore remain critical. A credible agreement could rapidly remove part of the geopolitical premium, while continued deadlock or renewed disruption around Hormuz could keep prices elevated. For traders, the key question is no longer simply how much oil is being produced. It is how reliably that oil can reach international markets and at what cost. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 29, 2026

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Higher Oil Prices and Fed Rate Risks Pressure Bullion

Gold is trading near $4,100 per ounce after suffering a sharp decline, with higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening creating headwinds for the non-yielding metal. The latest pressure is coming from renewed uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and the resulting impact on energy markets. Higher oil prices are increasing concerns over inflation, while rising Treasury yields are increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The market is now turning toward upcoming US economic data for further indications of how persistent inflation may be and whether additional monetary tightening could remain necessary. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactGoldAround $4,100/ozRemains under pressure following the sharp declineOil PricesMoving higherRenewed inflation concerns could pressure bullionTreasury YieldsRising to multi-year highsIncreases opportunity cost of holding goldFed PolicyFurther tightening expectations elevatedPotential headwind for non-yielding assetsUS-Iran TalksUncertainty remainsGeopolitical developments could increase volatilityUS Inflation DataPCE report approachingCould influence expectations for Fed policyEmployment DataNonfarm payrolls aheadPotentially important for rate expectations Current Gold Price Action Gold is holding near $4,100 per ounce after a substantial decline. The recent selling reflects a combination of higher yields and a changing interest-rate outlook. When Treasury yields rise, gold can become less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets because bullion does not generate a yield. The market is therefore increasingly sensitive to incoming US economic data and any evidence that inflation could remain elevated. Higher Oil Prices Increase Inflation Concerns Oil prices are again moving higher as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues. Energy prices are particularly important for gold because a sustained increase in oil can feed into broader inflation expectations. If investors believe higher energy costs will keep inflation elevated, expectations for monetary policy can shift toward tighter conditions. That creates a difficult environment for gold because the inflationary pressure itself can support demand for a traditional inflation hedge, while the resulting increase in interest-rate expectations can simultaneously pressure the metal. Treasury Yields Remain a Major Headwind US Treasury yields have moved to fresh multi-year highs as markets reassess the potential path for Federal Reserve policy. Higher yields increase the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets compared with gold. The relationship is particularly important when real yields rise, because investors then face a greater opportunity cost from holding an asset that does not pay interest. For gold to regain upward momentum, traders will therefore be watching closely for signs that Treasury yields are stabilizing or reversing. Federal Reserve Policy Moves Back Into Focus Expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening are becoming increasingly important for bullion. Markets are assessing whether persistent inflationary pressure could require another rate increase following the central bank's recent policy move. The direction of inflation and employment data will be critical. Strong economic data combined with persistent inflation could keep rate expectations elevated, while weaker activity or softer inflation could reduce pressure for additional tightening. Geopolitical Risk Remains a Two-Way Driver The US-Iran situation continues to create uncertainty for both energy markets and precious metals. Geopolitical tensions can traditionally support safe-haven demand for gold. However, if those tensions primarily produce a sustained increase in oil prices and inflation expectations, the resulting pressure on interest rates can work in the opposite direction. Gold is therefore responding to two competing forces: safe-haven demand from geopolitical uncertainty and monetary pressure from higher yields. US Economic Data Becomes the Next Major Catalyst The upcoming US economic calendar provides several potential volatility triggers. The PCE inflation report will be particularly important because it offers another indication of underlying price pressures and the potential direction of Federal Reserve policy. The nonfarm payrolls report will provide additional information about labor-market strength. Together, these releases could influence Treasury yields, the dollar and expectations for future interest rates — all major drivers of gold. Bullish Sentiment Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated — Continued tensions can support safe-haven demand for gold. Oil-driven inflation could support inflation-hedging demand — Persistent energy-price increases may encourage some investors to maintain exposure to precious metals. Gold remains near historically elevated levels — The broader long-term demand environment remains relevant even after the recent decline. Softer US data could reduce rate expectations — Weak inflation or employment figures could ease pressure from Treasury yields. Any decline in yields could support bullion — Lower opportunity costs would improve the relative appeal of non-yielding gold. Bearish Sentiment Treasury yields are rising — Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Further Fed tightening remains a risk — Additional rate increases could maintain pressure on bullion. Higher oil prices are complicating the inflation outlook — Persistent energy inflation could delay monetary easing. Gold has already experienced significant selling — Continued liquidation could keep technical pressure on the market. A stronger US dollar could add another headwind — Dollar appreciation generally increases the effective cost of gold for non-dollar buyers. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The gold market is entering a period where US inflation data, Treasury yields and Federal Reserve expectations are likely to determine the next major directional move. The key question is whether higher oil prices produce enough additional inflation pressure to keep interest-rate expectations elevated. If upcoming economic data shows persistent inflation and resilient employment, Treasury yields could remain elevated and continue to pressure gold. Conversely, evidence of softer inflation or weakening economic activity could reduce expectations for additional tightening and allow gold to recover some of its recent losses. Geopolitical developments remain another source of volatility, particularly if US-Iran negotiations affect oil supply expectations. Supply Outlook Gold mine supply is relatively slow to respond to short-term price movements, meaning the immediate direction of the market is likely to be driven more by investment demand, central-bank activity, ETF flows, the US dollar and interest rates than by changes in mine production. Higher prices can encourage recycling and additional supply over time, but these factors are unlikely to be the dominant influence on the next several trading sessions. Demand Outlook Investment demand remains highly sensitive to the relationship between gold, Treasury yields and the dollar. Central-bank and safe-haven demand can provide structural support, particularly while geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. However, higher yields can redirect capital toward interest-bearing assets, creating an important counterweight. The market will therefore be watching whether investors use the recent decline to rebuild gold exposure or whether higher yields continue to encourage further liquidation. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Gold traders will be watching: US PCE inflation data US nonfarm payrolls Treasury yields Federal Reserve rate expectations US dollar direction Oil prices US-Iran negotiations Safe-haven flows Central-bank gold demand ETF investment flows The immediate focus is on whether higher oil prices translate into persistent inflation pressure and higher-for-longer interest-rate expectations. Gold can still receive support from geopolitical uncertainty, but the metal needs stabilization in yields to overcome the current monetary-policy headwind. Currency Hedger View Gold's relationship with the US dollar and interest rates makes currency exposure particularly relevant for international businesses and investors. Because gold is predominantly priced in US dollars, movements in the dollar can influence the effective cost of bullion for buyers using other currencies. At the same time, changes in US interest rates and Treasury yields can affect both gold valuations and broader currency markets. For businesses with international payments, commodity exposure or USD-denominated transactions, the interaction between gold, the dollar, oil and interest rates can therefore have a direct impact on financial planning and transaction costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Gold is currently being pressured by higher Treasury yields, renewed oil-driven inflation concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. The market is now moving into an important data-driven period. PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls could influence the path of yields and the dollar, while developments in US-Iran negotiations could add further volatility through the energy market. The key balance for gold is therefore between safe-haven demand and monetary-policy pressure. A stabilization in yields could provide room for bullion to recover, while persistent inflation and higher rate expectations would keep the market vulnerable to further selling. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 29, 2026

Soybean Futures Slide to Four-Week Low as China Demand Uncertainty Pressures US Prices

US soybean futures have fallen below $12.90 per bushel, reaching a four-week low as uncertainty over Chinese demand weighs on the market. The latest US-China trade arrangement includes tariff reductions for several US agricultural products, but soybeans remain excluded, leaving US supplies facing an additional tariff and reducing the immediate incentive for Chinese buyers. The demand picture is not entirely negative. Chinese state-owned buyers have already purchased more than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans, while recent US export activity has strengthened. However, the absence of new purchase commitments and the limited duration of the latest trade-truce extension leave traders focused on whether Chinese demand can accelerate as the US harvest progresses. At the same time, the US soybean harvest is advancing in line with the five-year average, while crop conditions remain relatively strong. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactSoybean FuturesBelow $12.90/bushelFour-week low reflects demand concernsChina TariffsUS soybeans excluded from proposed reductionsMaintains a trade disadvantage for US suppliesChinese PurchasesMore than 12 MMT already purchasedProvides some evidence of continuing demandUS Export Inspections1.15 MMT, up from 769,698 MTImproving export activity provides supportUS Harvest17% completeNew-crop supplies are increasingly entering the marketCrop Rating58% good/excellentRelatively strong crop conditions support supply expectationsTrade TruceExtended through January 10Provides additional negotiation time but limited certainty Current Soybean Price Action Soybean futures have declined below $12.90 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in four weeks. The selling reflects concerns that the latest trade agreement does not provide the immediate improvement in Chinese soybean demand that traders had hoped for. The market is particularly sensitive to the distinction between potential Chinese purchases and confirmed new commitments. More than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans have already been purchased by Chinese state-owned buyers, but the absence of additional commitments leaves uncertainty over the pace of future demand. With the US harvest progressing, traders are increasingly focused on whether export demand will be strong enough to absorb new-crop supplies. China Trade Remains the Central Demand Issue The latest US-China trade arrangement provides tariff reductions across a range of agricultural products, including corn, wheat, vegetable oils, meat and dairy, while US soybeans remain excluded. That distinction is particularly important because China is the dominant destination for US soybean exports. The continued additional tariff reduces the competitiveness of US soybeans relative to alternative origins and gives Chinese buyers less incentive to increase purchases from the United States. For the soybean market, the key question is whether existing Chinese commitments can continue to build despite the tariff structure. Existing Chinese Purchases Provide Some Support Chinese state-owned buyers have already purchased more than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans, representing a substantial portion of the annual volume referenced in the current trade discussions. USDA export-sales announcements also show continuing soybean sales to China, including a reported 120,000-tonne sale for the 2026/27 marketing year on September 24. This suggests that the tariff situation has not completely stopped US-China soybean trade. However, traders are looking for evidence of a sustained increase in buying rather than isolated transactions. Until additional large purchases emerge, the market may continue to price a more uncertain Chinese demand outlook. US Export Activity Is Improving US soybean export inspections increased to approximately 1.15 million tonnes, compared with 769,698 tonnes previously. The improvement is a positive demand signal and provides some counterweight to the concerns surrounding China. If export activity continues to strengthen through the early stages of the new marketing year, it could help absorb the additional supply arriving from the US harvest. The destination mix will be particularly important. Stronger demand from countries outside China could reduce some of the pressure created by the current US-China trade relationship. Harvest Progress Keeps Supply Pressure in Focus The US soybean harvest is approximately 17% complete, matching the five-year average. This means the market is moving deeper into the period when physical supplies become increasingly available. A harvest progressing on schedule reduces concerns about immediate supply disruption, while the relatively strong crop rating of 58% good-to-excellent supports expectations for substantial production. The combination of increasing supply and uncertain Chinese demand creates a challenging fundamental backdrop for soybean prices. Crop Conditions Remain Relatively Strong The soybean crop remains rated 58% good-to-excellent, unchanged from the previous week. Stable crop conditions are important because they reduce the likelihood of a significant late-season production shock. Unless weather conditions deteriorate materially, traders are likely to focus increasingly on actual harvested yields, farmer selling and export demand rather than concerns over crop development. Bullish Sentiment US export inspections are improving — The latest 1.15 MMT figure represents a meaningful increase from the previous week. Chinese purchases are continuing — More than 12 MMT of US soybeans have already been purchased by Chinese state-owned buyers. Additional Chinese purchases remain possible — Continued trade negotiations leave the potential for changes in soybean purchasing arrangements. Global soybean demand remains important — Strong demand from destinations outside China could help offset weaker US-China flows. Lower prices could attract demand — A four-week low may encourage commercial buyers to increase coverage if physical demand remains firm. Bearish Sentiment Soybeans remain excluded from Chinese tariff reductions — The additional tariff continues to discourage US soybean purchases. No fresh major purchase commitment — Existing purchases have not yet been followed by a new large commitment under the latest trade arrangement. US harvest is progressing normally — Increasing physical availability is creating seasonal supply pressure. Crop conditions remain favorable — The 58% good-to-excellent rating supports expectations for solid production. Trade uncertainty remains elevated — The latest truce extension provides additional negotiation time but does not resolve the underlying soybean tariff issue. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The soybean market is increasingly dependent on the balance between US harvest supply and export demand. The immediate downside pressure is being driven by uncertainty over Chinese purchases, particularly because soybeans remain outside the latest tariff reductions. However, continued export inspections and additional Chinese purchases could begin to stabilize the market if demand proves stronger than currently expected. The key signal will be whether Chinese buying accelerates as the US harvest expands. A sustained increase in purchases could change the market's demand outlook, while continued limited buying would leave the expanding US supply base as the dominant price pressure. Supply Outlook US soybean supplies are increasing as harvest progresses at the five-year average pace. The 58% good-to-excellent crop rating also indicates that production expectations remain relatively firm. With more physical soybeans entering the market, storage capacity, farmer selling and export demand will become increasingly important. The supply outlook could become more bearish if harvest yields confirm strong production while Chinese demand remains constrained. Demand Outlook Demand remains the central uncertainty. US export inspections have improved, and USDA data continues to show soybean sales to China. However, the current tariff structure makes the Chinese market less supportive for US producers than it would be under a broader tariff reduction. Traders will therefore be watching whether China increases purchases despite the remaining tariff or shifts more demand toward competing origins. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Soybean traders will be watching: Chinese soybean purchase announcements US export inspections US harvest progress Soybean yield results Crop-condition changes Developments in US-China trade negotiations Competing South American supplies Farmer selling as harvest accelerates The US dollar and its effect on export competitiveness The soybean market is entering a crucial period where new-crop supply is increasing while the outlook for its largest export destination remains uncertain. A pickup in Chinese purchases could provide an important source of support, while continued trade restrictions combined with a strong harvest could keep prices under pressure. Currency Hedger View Soybeans demonstrate the close relationship between commodity prices, international trade and currency markets. US soybeans are priced in US dollars, meaning movements in the dollar can influence their competitiveness for international buyers. A stronger dollar can increase the effective cost for overseas purchasers, while a weaker dollar can improve the competitiveness of US agricultural exports. For businesses involved in soybean trading, agricultural imports, food production or international commodity transactions, managing the underlying currency exposure can therefore be an important part of managing overall commercial risk. The uncertainty surrounding US-China soybean trade also demonstrates why commodity exposure and FX exposure should not always be viewed separately. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while understanding the wider market forces influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Soybean futures are under pressure as US harvest supply increases while the outlook for Chinese demand remains uncertain. The exclusion of soybeans from the latest Chinese tariff reductions is the central issue for the market, particularly because China remains such an important destination for US production. Existing Chinese purchases provide some support, while improving US export inspections demonstrate that international demand has not disappeared. The next important signal will be whether Chinese buying accelerates despite the remaining tariff. If it does, the current supply pressure could begin to ease. If purchases remain limited while harvest progresses normally, soybean futures could remain vulnerable to further selling. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 29, 2026

Corn Futures Slide to Three-Week Low as Harvest Advances and China Demand Remains Uncertain

US corn futures have fallen to a three-week low near $5.20 per bushel as broad selling across the grain complex intensifies. Weakness in soybeans is spilling into corn after China excluded US soybeans from proposed tariff reductions, prompting traders to reduce positions across agricultural markets. Corn itself is included in the proposed tariff reductions, providing some trade-related support. However, the absence of new US corn purchase commitments from China is limiting the bullish impact. At the same time, the US harvest is progressing slightly ahead of its five-year average, while export inspections remain relatively strong. The market is now looking toward the September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report, which could provide a significant new indication of available domestic supplies. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactCorn FuturesAround $5.20/bushelThree-week low reflects broad grain-market sellingChina TradeCorn included in proposed tariff reductionsPotentially supportive for future trade flowsChinese Corn PurchasesNo fresh US purchase commitmentsLimits immediate bullish impactUS Exports1.57 MMT inspectionsStill near the upper end of expectationsUS Harvest18% completeSlightly ahead of the five-year averageCrop Rating56% good/excellentIndicates relatively healthy crop conditionsUSDA Grain StocksReport due September 30Potentially significant supply-price catalyst Current Corn Price Action Corn futures are trading around $5.20 per bushel, reaching their lowest level in approximately three weeks as selling pressure spreads across the grain complex. The decline is being amplified by weakness in soybeans. Traders reacted negatively after China excluded soybeans from proposed tariff reductions on US agricultural products, creating renewed uncertainty around US-China agricultural demand. Although corn was included in the proposed tariff reductions, the lack of fresh Chinese buying commitments has prevented the development of a stronger bullish response. The immediate price direction will therefore depend heavily on export demand, harvest progress and the upcoming USDA stocks data. Soybean Weakness Creates Spillover Pressure Soybean prices are currently one of the most important external influences on corn. The exclusion of soybeans from proposed Chinese tariff reductions has increased uncertainty over future US soybean demand and encouraged liquidation across agricultural commodities. Corn has been pulled lower through this broader grain-market selling despite having a comparatively more favorable position in the proposed trade measures. This highlights the importance of cross-market positioning. If soybean selling continues, corn could remain under pressure even if its own export fundamentals remain relatively constructive. China Trade Provides Limited Corn Support Corn is included among the US agricultural products covered by proposed Chinese tariff reductions. That is potentially supportive because reduced trade barriers could improve the competitiveness of US corn in the Chinese market. However, the market has not received new US corn purchase commitments alongside the proposed tariff changes. Until actual demand materializes through increased purchases, traders are likely to treat the trade development as a potential future demand driver rather than an immediate change in the balance sheet. US Export Demand Remains Relatively Firm US corn export inspections totaled 1.57 million metric tons in the latest reported week, down from 1.96 million tons previously but still near the upper end of market expectations. The week-to-week decline is worth monitoring, but the overall pace remains constructive enough to prevent exports from becoming an immediate bearish catalyst. Future inspection numbers will be important as traders assess whether international demand can absorb a large US crop during the harvest period. Stronger export activity would provide a counterweight to harvest pressure, while a sustained slowdown could increase concerns about growing domestic inventories. Harvest Progress Keeps Supply Pressure in Focus The US corn harvest has reached approximately 18% completion, slightly ahead of the five-year average. Harvest progress is important because increasing physical availability can place seasonal pressure on futures, particularly when farmers and commercial operators begin moving newly harvested supplies into the market. The crop is currently rated 56% good or excellent, indicating that overall production conditions remain relatively favorable. Unless late-season weather creates a significant disruption, traders are likely to continue focusing on the size of the crop and the amount of corn entering storage. USDA Grain Stocks Report Becomes the Next Major Catalyst The September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report is now one of the most important near-term events for the corn market. The report could provide fresh information about domestic inventories and alter expectations surrounding available supplies. A stocks figure below market expectations could provide support by indicating tighter-than-anticipated supplies. Conversely, larger inventories could reinforce harvest-related selling pressure and increase expectations for comfortable domestic availability. The report therefore has the potential to produce a significant short-term change in market sentiment. Bullish Sentiment Corn is included in proposed Chinese tariff reductions — Lower trade barriers could improve the potential for future US corn demand. Export inspections remain relatively strong — The latest 1.57 MMT figure remains near the upper end of expectations. Potentially tighter USDA stocks — A smaller-than-expected inventory figure could provide an immediate bullish catalyst. International demand remains important — Continued export strength could help absorb the incoming US harvest. Three-week lows could attract buyers — A sustained decline could encourage commercial or speculative buying if fundamental support remains intact. Bearish Sentiment Soybean weakness is spreading across grains — Continued liquidation in soybeans could maintain broad selling pressure. No fresh Chinese corn purchases — Proposed tariff reductions have not yet translated into new US corn demand. Harvest is progressing ahead of average — Increasing physical supplies could create additional seasonal pressure. Crop conditions remain relatively favorable — The 56% good/excellent rating supports expectations for substantial production. Potentially large domestic inventories — A higher-than-expected USDA stocks figure could reinforce the bearish supply narrative. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The corn market is approaching a critical point where harvest pressure, export demand and USDA inventory estimates will compete for influence. The September 30 Grain Stocks report is likely to provide the clearest short-term fundamental signal. A tighter inventory figure could challenge the recent decline, particularly if export demand remains firm. Conversely, evidence of larger domestic supplies combined with continued soybean weakness could keep corn futures under pressure. The market will also monitor whether the proposed China trade measures eventually result in actual US corn purchases. Without fresh buying commitments, the trade announcement may provide less immediate support than traders initially expected. Supply Outlook US corn supply is becoming increasingly visible as harvest progresses. With 18% of the crop already harvested and conditions remaining relatively favorable, the market is moving toward a period of increased physical availability. The key uncertainty is the size of final inventories. The USDA Grain Stocks report could significantly change expectations surrounding the domestic supply balance. Harvest pressure could remain a headwind if producers increase marketings while demand fails to accelerate at the same pace. Demand Outlook Export demand remains the most important source of potential support. The latest inspection figure of 1.57 MMT demonstrates that international demand remains active, although the weekly decline warrants monitoring. China could become a more important source of demand if the proposed tariff reductions lead to actual purchases of US corn. For now, however, the absence of new purchase commitments means the market cannot rely on Chinese demand to offset harvest pressure. Feed and ethanol demand will also remain important components of the domestic balance sheet. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Corn traders will be watching: The September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report US harvest progress Crop condition changes Weekly export inspections Chinese purchases of US corn Developments in US-China agricultural trade Soybean price direction Producer selling during harvest Domestic feed and ethanol demand The corn market is currently being pulled lower by broader grain liquidation, but the fundamental picture is not uniformly bearish. Export demand remains relatively solid and proposed Chinese tariff reductions could eventually improve the demand outlook. The next major test will be whether USDA inventory data confirms comfortable domestic supplies or reveals a tighter balance than traders currently expect. Corn is a US-dollar-denominated commodity, meaning movements in the dollar can influence international purchasing power, export competitiveness and the demand outlook for US agricultural products. For exporters, importers and businesses exposed to corn prices, the currency component can therefore be just as important as the underlying commodity price. A stronger dollar can make US corn more expensive for overseas buyers, while a weaker dollar can improve its competitiveness in international markets. With US-China agricultural trade developments, export demand and global grain flows remaining important to the corn outlook, businesses involved in international agricultural transactions should continue to monitor both corn prices and currency movements. Currency Hedger provides businesses and individuals with support for international currency requirements, helping them manage FX exposure while understanding the market factors influencing exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Corn futures are under pressure as harvest availability and soybean-led liquidation outweigh the potential support from proposed Chinese tariff reductions. The market now has a clear fundamental catalyst in the September 30 Grain Stocks report. If inventories come in below expectations, corn could find support at current lower levels. If stocks are larger than anticipated while soybean weakness continues, the pressure on corn could persist. For now, traders are balancing a progressing US harvest against export demand that remains sufficiently firm to prevent the market from becoming decisively bearish. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 29, 2026

European Natural Gas Prices Face Renewed Volatility as Low Storage Meets Gulf Supply Risks

European natural gas prices have fallen below €72/MWh, but the decline comes against a tightening winter supply backdrop. Traders continue to monitor disruptions to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while uncertainty surrounding Gulf supplies and below-average European storage levels leave the market vulnerable to renewed price volatility. The supply picture is particularly important as the European heating season approaches. Storage across the bloc is around 71% full, significantly below the five-year seasonal average of approximately 87%, while Germany's inventories are only slightly above 57%. At the same time, Europe is competing with Asian buyers for available LNG cargoes, while maintenance on Norwegian infrastructure creates an additional constraint on regional supply. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactEuropean GasBelow €72/MWhRecent decline provides some relief but does not remove supply risksEU StorageAround 71% fullBelow-average inventories increase winter sensitivityGermany StorageJust over 57% fullGreater vulnerability for Europe's largest gas marketLNG FlowsDisruptions through Strait of HormuzReduced Gulf supply could tighten European availabilityQatarEnergyForce majeure extended on Italy's Edison deliveriesAdds uncertainty to LNG supplyNorwegian SupplyMaintenance continuesPotentially limits pipeline availabilityAsian DemandStrong competition for LNG cargoesCould make replacement supplies more expensive Current European Gas Price Action European natural gas prices have moved below €72/MWh after rising during the previous session. The decline indicates that traders are not currently pricing a full-blown supply shock. However, the underlying fundamentals remain considerably tighter than the headline price movement suggests. The key issue is that Europe's storage position is entering the heating season below normal seasonal levels. Any additional disruption to LNG or pipeline supplies could therefore have a disproportionately large impact on prices. European Storage Remains Below Seasonal Norms European gas storage is currently around 71% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of approximately 87%. The gap is significant because storage provides an important buffer against winter demand. Lower starting inventories mean that Europe has less flexibility if temperatures fall sharply or supply disruptions persist. Germany presents an even more sensitive part of the European market, with storage levels only slightly above 57%. If withdrawals accelerate once heating demand increases, traders may begin placing a greater risk premium on forward gas contracts. Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Keep LNG Supply in Focus The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important variables for the European gas market. Persistent disruption to LNG flows through the region creates uncertainty over the availability of cargoes that would normally contribute to global supply. The lack of agreement between the US and Iran means there is no immediate certainty that normal shipping conditions will return. Continued disruption could force European buyers to compete more aggressively for alternative LNG supplies. That would increase the importance of US LNG, Norwegian pipeline gas and other flexible sources of supply. Qatar LNG Disruptions Add Another Layer of Risk QatarEnergy has extended force majeure affecting LNG deliveries to Italy's Edison through early December. The development highlights the difficulty Europe faces in replacing disrupted Gulf supplies ahead of the peak winter-demand period. Qatar is a major participant in the global LNG market, meaning prolonged disruption can affect not only European supply but also the competition for cargoes between Europe and Asia. Asian Competition Could Push Replacement Costs Higher Europe is not competing for LNG in isolation. Asian buyers are also entering the winter period with their own supply requirements. If Asian demand increases alongside European restocking requirements, available spot cargoes could become more expensive. This creates an important upside risk for European gas prices even if European storage continues to improve. The market does not necessarily require a complete supply interruption for prices to rise sharply. A combination of lower inventories, stronger Asian demand and logistical disruption could be sufficient to tighten the balance. Norwegian Maintenance Adds Pipeline Supply Risk Norway remains a critical source of pipeline gas for Europe, making maintenance activity an important market variable. Temporary reductions in Norwegian flows can have an amplified effect when LNG supply is already uncertain. Traders will therefore continue monitoring the timing and scale of Norwegian maintenance and whether any disruptions extend beyond expected schedules. Bullish Sentiment European storage remains below normal — Lower inventories leave the market more exposed to supply disruptions during winter. Strait of Hormuz uncertainty persists — Continued disruption could restrict LNG availability and increase competition for alternative cargoes. Qatar LNG deliveries remain affected — Extended force majeure adds uncertainty to European supply. Asian LNG competition — Strong Asian demand could increase the cost of cargoes needed by European buyers. Norwegian maintenance — Pipeline supply interruptions could tighten the regional market at a sensitive time of year. Bearish Sentiment Prices remain below €72/MWh — The market is not currently pricing the full impact of potential winter supply risks. Storage is still being replenished — Continued injections would gradually improve Europe's winter supply buffer. Alternative LNG supplies remain available — Europe has access to multiple global LNG sources if cargoes can be redirected. Mild weather would reduce demand pressure — A relatively warm start to winter could slow withdrawals and limit the need for additional spot LNG. Any improvement in Gulf shipping conditions could quickly reduce the risk premium currently embedded in European gas markets. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major move in European gas prices is likely to depend on whether supply risks intensify as the heating season approaches. A prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz would increase pressure on European buyers to secure alternative LNG supplies, particularly if Asian demand remains firm. With storage already below the five-year average, the market could react sharply to any additional supply reduction. Conversely, an improvement in shipping conditions, stronger Norwegian availability or continued storage injections could reduce the immediate risk premium. The critical variable is therefore not simply the current storage percentage, but how quickly inventories are drawn down once winter demand increases. Supply Outlook European supply remains exposed to several simultaneous risks. Gulf LNG disruptions, Norwegian maintenance and competition for global LNG cargoes could all affect the amount of gas available to European buyers. The market will be particularly sensitive to any evidence that replacement LNG is becoming more difficult or expensive to secure. If Gulf flows remain disrupted into the winter, Europe may need to rely more heavily on alternative LNG suppliers and pipeline sources. Demand Outlook European gas demand is expected to increase as temperatures fall and heating requirements rise. The pace of that increase will depend heavily on weather conditions. A mild winter would reduce withdrawals and give storage levels more time to recover relative to demand. A colder-than-normal winter, however, would quickly expose the current inventory deficit and increase competition for LNG. Industrial demand will also remain relevant, particularly if elevated gas prices begin to affect European manufacturing activity. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions European gas traders will be watching: European storage injections and inventory levels German storage levels LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz QatarEnergy delivery developments Norwegian pipeline availability Asian LNG demand European weather forecasts The pace of withdrawals once heating demand increases The market is currently benefiting from a lower price level, but the fundamental risk remains skewed toward greater volatility as winter approaches. With European storage below its five-year average and several major supply uncertainties unresolved, any additional disruption could quickly change the market's balance. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets European natural gas prices are currently caught between short-term price weakness and a more fragile winter supply outlook. The decline below €72/MWh does not eliminate the underlying risks created by low storage, Gulf LNG uncertainty and competition from Asian buyers. The most important development for the coming sessions will be whether European inventories can continue building before heating demand accelerates. If supply disruptions persist into the winter while storage remains below normal, the market could become significantly more sensitive to weather and LNG availability. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 29, 2026

Live Cattle Futures Under Pressure as Feeder Prices Slide and Slaughter Remains Light

Live cattle futures are facing renewed pressure as feeder cattle prices weaken and US cattle slaughter remains below year-ago levels. The latest cash market has yet to develop, while relatively light trading activity is leaving futures increasingly sensitive to wholesale beef values, feedlot showlists and expectations for near-term slaughter. At the same time, boxed beef prices remain supportive, with Choice and Select values moving higher. Improving pasture conditions are also providing some relief for cattle producers, although weaker feeder auction prices and uncertainty around slaughter capacity remain important factors for the market outlook. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactLive CattleOctober futures at $217.45Continued selling pressure could test nearby supportFeeder CattleOctober futures at $331.90Lower feeder values are weighing on the broader cattle complexCash CattleLimited trade so farCash direction could determine the next major futures moveBoxed BeefChoice at $380.48; Select at $358.23Stronger wholesale values provide underlying supportCattle Slaughter95,000 head estimated for MondayReduced slaughter is limiting beef productionPasture Conditions19% rated good/excellentImproving pasture conditions may reduce immediate feed pressureFeeder Index$338.79Futures remain below the latest CME index level Current Live Cattle Price Action October live cattle futures closed at $217.45, down $1.425, while December futures declined $1.35 to $220.80. February 2027 cattle futures also fell $1.35 to $222.95. The decline extended across the feeder cattle market. October feeders fell $3.025 to $331.90, November declined $2.70 to $329.275, and January 2027 futures lost $2.375 to $321.975. The broad-based weakness indicates that traders are currently placing greater emphasis on weaker feeder auction values and uncertainty around the cash market rather than the recent strength in boxed beef prices. Cash Market Remains the Key Near-Term Driver Cash cattle trade has yet to establish a clear direction, with early-week activity focused largely on showlists. Light cash trading in recent weeks has increased the importance of negotiated prices when they emerge. Feedlots will be watching wholesale beef demand and available slaughter capacity when determining asking prices, while packers face the competing considerations of cattle availability, beef values and operating conditions. A stronger cash market would provide an important signal that underlying fed-cattle demand remains firm. Conversely, weaker cash prices could reinforce the pressure already visible in futures. Feeder Cattle Prices Signal Producer Pressure The feeder cattle complex remains one of the clearest sources of weakness. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was recently reported at $338.79, while the October feeder contract closed substantially below that level at $331.90. The latest Oklahoma City auction also showed softer conditions. Feeder steers were steady to $3 lower, while calves posted significantly larger declines, with steers down $5 to $15 and heifers $2 to $8 lower. Lower feeder prices can eventually improve feedlot replacement economics, but the immediate signal for the futures market is weaker demand and increased caution among cattle buyers. Pasture Conditions Continue to Improve US pasture conditions are showing incremental improvement, with the latest rating at 19% good/excellent, two percentage points higher on the week. The Brugler500 index also increased six points to 248. Better pasture conditions can help producers retain flexibility and potentially reduce the urgency to purchase expensive feed. However, the overall pasture rating remains relatively low, meaning seasonal conditions continue to be an important consideration for cattle supplies and producer decisions. Boxed Beef Provides an Important Support Wholesale beef prices are currently providing a counterweight to weaker futures. Choice boxed beef increased $1.65 to $380.48, while Select rose $2.47 to $358.23. Stronger wholesale values suggest that demand for beef remains sufficiently firm to support packer margins and cattle values. The key question for futures is whether this wholesale strength can continue to translate into stronger cash cattle prices while slaughter levels remain constrained. Slaughter Levels Remain Below Last Year Federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 95,000 head, matching the comparable Monday but remaining 10,000 head below the same period last year. Reduced slaughter means less beef is being produced, which can help keep wholesale prices supported if demand remains steady. However, lower slaughter also creates uncertainty for feedlots and the timing of cattle marketings. The market will therefore be watching whether slaughter activity begins to recover or remains constrained. Bullish Sentiment Stronger boxed beef values — Rising Choice and Select prices indicate continued wholesale-market support. Limited beef production — Slaughter below year-ago levels could restrict beef availability and support prices. Potential cash-market strength — A firm cash trade would provide an important confirmation of underlying fed-cattle demand. Improving pasture conditions — Better pasture ratings could support producer flexibility and cattle condition heading into the next stage of the production cycle. Bearish Sentiment Feeder futures are weakening — Broad declines across feeder contracts indicate reduced buying pressure. Auction prices remain under pressure — Lower feeder steers and sharply weaker calves point to softer replacement-cattle demand. Cash trade remains uncertain — Limited early-week activity leaves futures vulnerable to a weaker cash signal. Slaughter remains below last year — Reduced processing activity creates uncertainty around cattle movement and market liquidity. Futures remain vulnerable to technical selling — Continued losses in both live and feeder cattle could encourage additional position reductions if support levels fail. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The cattle market is entering a period where the relationship between cash cattle, boxed beef and slaughter levels will be particularly important. For live cattle, traders will be watching whether wholesale beef strength can encourage packers to bid more aggressively for fed cattle. A firm cash market could help stabilize futures after the recent declines. For feeders, the focus will remain on auction demand, pasture conditions and replacement-cattle prices. Continued weakness in physical feeder markets could keep pressure on futures even if finished cattle values remain comparatively resilient. The next significant directional signal is therefore likely to come from the cash market and the pace of cattle movement through packing facilities. Supply Outlook Near-term cattle supplies remain influenced by limited slaughter activity and producer decisions surrounding marketings. Improving pasture conditions provide some additional flexibility, but the relatively low overall pasture rating means forage conditions remain a consideration. Lower feeder prices could eventually encourage more purchasing interest from feedlots if replacement values become more attractive. The key supply question is whether slaughter activity begins to normalize or remains below year-ago levels. Demand Outlook Beef demand currently has an important source of support from stronger boxed beef prices. Choice and Select values have both increased, suggesting that wholesale demand is absorbing available beef despite the lighter slaughter pace. Maintaining this strength will be important for cattle futures. If wholesale prices remain firm while slaughter stays constrained, the market could retain fundamental support. If boxed beef values begin to weaken, the recent pressure on futures could become more pronounced. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The cattle market is likely to remain highly sensitive to the next developments in cash trade. Traders will be watching: Cash cattle bids and asking prices Boxed beef movement and wholesale values Federally inspected slaughter levels Feeder cattle auction prices Pasture and forage conditions The relationship between the CME Feeder Cattle Index and futures Whether recent futures weakness attracts renewed buying interest The central issue is whether stronger wholesale beef prices can offset weaker feeder values and reduced slaughter activity. Until cash cattle establishes a clearer direction, volatility is likely to remain elevated across both live and feeder cattle futures. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets The cattle market is currently caught between firm wholesale beef values and weaker feeder cattle futures. Stronger Choice and Select prices provide fundamental support, but lower feeder auction prices and reduced slaughter activity are creating uncertainty around the near-term direction of futures. The next major signal will come from the cash cattle market. A firm cash trade would help confirm that underlying fed-cattle values remain resilient, while weaker cash prices could reinforce the selling pressure already visible in futures. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 28, 2026

The Week Ahead

Key takeaways UK diesel hits a record, as economic concerns rise Labour’s ‘Your First Home’ scheme sets UK homebuilders alight The market expects an aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle, but is it necessary? Oil supply concerns ease, even as oil prices rise Does Scott Bessent have a point? What’s next for the AI trade Micron results: a key test for AI trade Nvidia tries to make AI safer The Week Ahead: a key moment for the global economy as threats rise Oil prices are rising once more on Monday, and Brent crude is higher by more than 3% after last week’s hopes for a diplomatic solution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have been dashed. The Brent crude continuous contract is back above $100 per barrel. This is also putting upward pressure on sovereign bond yields. US Treasury yields are rising once again, and European yields are now jumping sharply. The 2-year Treasury yield is marching towards 5%, and is currently trading at 4.92%. UK diesel hits a record, as economic concerns rise Diesel costs in the UK have hit a record high of 199.18p per litre, higher than the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. UK Fuel costs have now entered unchartered territory, and there will be rising concerns about the economic impact, and how the BOE will react. Rising yields are weighing on stocks, and futures on US indices are under pressure on Monday, as the move higher in yields tests the resilience of the tech trade. Semiconductor stocks came under pressure during the Asian session, and Korea’s Kospi index fell 2% as volatility rose. There is one pocket of support for the stock market, UK homebuilders are surging on Monday, after the government rebooted the Tories’ Help to Buy scheme. Persimmon and Barrett Redrow are higher by 14% and 13% respectively this morning, reversing a fairly torrid year for the homebuilding sector, which has been crushed under the weight of rising interest rate expectations. Labour’s ‘Your First Home’ scheme sets UK homebuilders alight This is boosting the FTSE 100, which is higher by 0.3% so far on Monday. There are also gains for the broader FTSE 350, as UK homebuilding suppliers also gain from this latest government announcement. Travis Perkins, Ibstock, the brick maker, and Topps Tilles are also rising this morning. It is not broad-based euphoria,however. The government’s ‘Your First Home’ plan will slash the deposit required to 2.5% from 5%, which should help give access to lower income first time buyers. This is helpful for Persimmon, which builds homes at a relatively low price point, compared to other premium homebuilders like Berkely. There is also a stark difference between this scheme and the original scheme launched by George Osborne: a very different interest rate environment. Back then, the base rate was 0.5%, compared to 3.75% now, and there are expectations that rates will have to rise further. Also, some participants of the original scheme have had trouble selling on their properties, particularly flats, with some properties falling into negative equity. Although the government will face criticism as it launches this scheme, there is no doubt that the dial has shifted for UK homebuilders, and we could see the start of a new bull market for this sector, which is good news for the FTSE 100 in the short term. Market expects an aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle, but is it necessary? As we start a new week where there is still no resolution to the energy price crisis, sovereign bond yields are surging, and questions are rising about when rising interest rate risk will spill over into credit and economic risk? There is now a 70% chance of a rate hike from the Fed in October, and a near 60% chance of another hike in December. As we move to the end of Q3, the market is pricing in an aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle. Sovereign yields are rising to multi-decade highs, led by the US, where yields on all maturities higher than 3-years are now above 5%. The diverging performance between stocks and bonds is worth noting, especially as hopes for a resolution to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive. Oil supply concerns ease, even as oil prices rise However, while the oil price is rising at the start of the week, it is worth noting that oil tankers are getting through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi oil exports rose to their highest level since the war began and exports through the Strait are averaging 14mn barrels per day. Added to this, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is operating at full capacity. There is still a ‘war’ premium attached to the oil price, and that will stay until the conflict is resolved, but at some stage, the market is at risk of becoming detached from the fundamentals. Even the US Treasury Secretary said at the weekend that the Federal Reserve should keep an open mind about interest rates since productivity gains from AI will keep inflation in check. Does Scott Bessent have a point? While the Fed is likely to ignore his words, Bessent does highlight how the shift in rate hike expectations in the US is causing concern right at the top of politics. The question now is, will this week’s key US economic data releases shift US interest rate expectations once again? US PCE and Payrolls on Friday could trigger another recalibration in US rate expectations. If payrolls or inflation data are softer than expected, we could see rate hike expectations get scaled back sharply. What’s next for the AI trade The AI trade is also in focus this week. It is set to slide on Monday, but it is worth noting that stocks linked to the AI trade have been swinging between two extremes in recent weeks, with money quickly moving out of and then back into the AI trade as the newsflow shifts. Concerns about a slowdown in the development of AI technology triggered a major downturn in the AI trade earlier in September, but now excitement about Meta’s new Muse AI agent, has reignited enthusiasm for the trade. This is a narrative market, and when the narrative changes, so does the trade. For example, $3 trillion has been added to the Nasdaq since its September 15th low, and moves have been staggering in both directions. Although Meta is expected to slide today, in the pre-market its share price is lower by more than 2%, Meta’s shares are on track for their best monthly performance for more than a decade and are currently higher by 27% in 4 weeks. Every time there is an AI sell off, the market finds an excuse to jump back in, and the decline in the AI trade earlier in September helped remove some of the froth from the market. Some AI names now trade at attractive valuations, for example, Nvidia now trades at a forward P/E ratio of 25 times future earnings, which is nearly 50% below its 10-year average. Micron results: a key test for AI trade This week, a key driver for the AI trade could be Micron’s earnings on Wednesday night. Investors will be watching margins, revenue, projected demand and earnings. Margins are particularly in focus due to surging memory costs Micron has projected revenues of $50bn and gross margins of 86%, so any deviation from this guidance may trigger stock market volatility, and the options market is currently projecting a move of 8% in either direction. Attention will also shift to the revenue outlook and capex spending, which is expected to be $10bn for next quarter. Some analysts are concerned about the longer term outlook, and the stock price is already higher by 266% YTD, so there is not much room for error. Nvidia tries to make AI safer Nvidia is also in focus after it announced a software platform that controls AI agents and stops them from going rogue. This could target some concerns about rogue agents that have escaped their ‘sandbox’ test labs, for example the incident where 17,000 agents attacked Hugging Face’s infrastructure. So far, this is not halting an expected slide in US AI stocks later on Monday, however, anything that makes AI safer is likely to be looked on warmly by investors. Chart 1: US 2-year Treasury yield Source: XTB

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Markets

September 28, 2026

Chart of the Day: GOLD drops 4% and paves the way to $4,000

Gold prices fell by more than 4% on Monday, breaking through key support levels and dropping below the $4,200-per-ounce mark to their lowest level in nearly two months. The sell-off in the precious metals market is the result of cumulative pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields and resurgent inflation fears fueled by a spike in oil prices. Following gold's lead, other precious metals fell sharply—silver lost as much as 4.97%, dropping to $61.03 per ounce. Debt and oil are hitting non-income-generating assets The situation in the bond market remains the main factor driving precious metal prices lower. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose on Monday to 5.2045% (+0.85%), remaining near its highest levels since 2007. The yield on 2-year Treasuries, meanwhile, jumped by 1.11% to 4.9056%. Rising risk-free rates are drastically increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which generates neither interest nor dividends. Source: Bloomberg Financial Lp Rising energy prices are putting pressure on the bond market. The White House’s rejection of Iran’s proposal to resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and end the fighting has led to another spike in oil prices—WTI is up 2.20% today (at $94.46 per barrel), while Brent is up 1.89% to $99.24. Rising oil prices are affecting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Investors fear that higher energy costs will entrench price pressures in the U.S. economy, forcing the Fed to continue its tightening cycle. Markets are currently pricing in a nearly 68 percent probability of another interest rate hike at the October meeting. Technical Breakout: The Path to $4,000 Is Clear From a technical analysis perspective, Monday’s decline caused significant damage to the market structure. Over the past two weeks, gold prices had been consolidating in the $4,240–$4,400 range, and the $4,240 level—which coincided with the 1-standard-deviation retracement of the anchored VWAP since the beginning of 2026—had been effectively defended by buyers. The eventual break below this level triggered a wave of stop-loss orders and accelerated the sell-off. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has fallen to 36.55 points, signaling a growing advantage for sellers. At this stage, there are no significant technical barriers to further declines, which opens the way for bears to test the key psychological support zone at $4,000 per ounce. Any potential rebound would require buyers to quickly return above $4,240 and then break through strong resistance in the $4,300–$4,330 range. However, as long as bond yields continue to rise, a possible (hypothetical) downward move remains the path of least resistance for the gold market.

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Energies

September 28, 2026

Oil Big Short:? Persian Gulf exports return, but the cold war in the oil market continues.

Shift in narrative Just a few days ago, the market was heavily fearing a return of crude oil prices to new all-time records during the ongoing war. However, now investors are starting to play out a completely different scenario: the collapse of the Iran blockade. Although oil prices are rebounding significantly during the last Monday of September, today's picture in the oil market appears to be extremely interesting, yet at the same time difficult to predict. There is still no agreement announced in recent days, Iran is not softening the conditions for opening Hormuz, and Trump has completely rejected Iran's proposal. Despite this situation, an increasingly strong narrative supported by data is emerging that oil exports from the Middle East are returning to a greater extent. It can be said that although the market did not get a diplomatic breakthrough, it found a workaround on its own. This is a situation that can be called a cold war in the oil market: the conflict continues, which will largely sustain the geopolitical premium, the risk does not disappear, but trade goes on. It is simply longer, more expensive, and definitely more dangerous. Before moving further, an important caveat about the data. Most of the figures on flows, tanker shuttles, and STS transfers come from private data, but more and more analyses confirm the growing numbers. Although the exact scale of the export recovery is hard to assess, the direction seems clear, which is also being priced in by the market further out. The question arises, however: is it also time for a sharp drop at the short end of the oil curve? What actually changed? The return of exports The most important fact of the rapidly ending month. Total Middle East crude exports, which plunged to around 40% of January levels in March, were expected to rebound in September to around 17 million b/d, which according to some calculations is nearly 90% of the baseline from the beginning of this year. This is a massive change compared to the spring collapse. Furthermore, a clear rotation of routes is visible, and it is at the heart of this story. When Persian Gulf exports ground to a halt in spring, the Red Sea took the burden (Saudi Arabia redirected cargoes). When the Houthis closed the southern exit through Bab al-Mandab in the summer, and strikes on the East-West pipeline cut off flow to the Red Sea in September, exports returned to the Persian Gulf, which is now recording very high figures. The world's largest oil exporter could not afford to let crude stop flowing completely. It simply decided to take on greater risk and, with U.S. assistance, is releasing more and more barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. Now the question arises. If crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to very high levels, why isn't oil falling? The answer, of course, is risk and high freight rates. Oil flows without an agreement, but at the same time the market must pay a higher price if it wants to get the coveted barrels. New export mechanism: the Hormuz shuttle and breeding season in the Gulf of Oman How does the new workaround look physically? Something analysts call the "Hormuz shuttle" has emerged. Tankers transport crude out of the Persian trap along the Omani coastline, staying close to the shore of Oman rather than taking the central route or hugging the Iranian coast, then offload the cargo via ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman before returning for another batch. Hence the explosion in STS transfers, dubbed the ship "breeding season." The volume of these operations grew from near zero during spring to over 8 million b/d in September. According to estimates, around 116 tankers are engaged in the Hormuz shuttle. ADNOC (the UAE state oil company) started as early as May (around 11 vessels), and later Saudi Aramco and Kuwait copied the model. Added to this is a military element: the US Navy coordinates tanker transits through the strait, designating routes and time windows, which allows concentrated air defense over the passage. All of this happens with transponders turned off, so only by using satellite data are companies like Kpler able to estimate how much crude actually exits the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is flowing, but the costs involved in getting it out to the open sea are significantly higher than standard. Why oil remains high: the cost of the workaround and fading Iran Currently, it seems that mainly three things are holding prices elevated despite the return of volumes. First, the shuttle cost is huge. Freight on the route from the Gulf to China (TD3c index) shot up to over $200 per ton, translating to up to nearly $30 per barrel. For a 2 million barrel VLCC cargo, that is roughly $58 million for a single voyage. This cost doesn't disappear; it gets absorbed into the delivered oil price. In other words, even if barrels are plentiful, getting them to market is expensive, and that supports prices. Second, Iran itself is dropping out of the game, which is a supply-tightening factor rather than an easing one. Iran has practically not loaded crude since August at its main Kharg Island terminal, as exporting Iranian oil and returning for the next shipment carries the highest risk. Bessent claims that only about 15 million barrels of Iranian crude remain on the water, with the last deliveries to China completing within two weeks. Real volume is thus leaving the market, even if others are replacing it. Third, geopolitical risk remains active. Houthi drones and missiles are still flying toward Riyadh and Aramco installations (alerts in Abha and Jazan). As long as energy infrastructure remains a target, the risk premium will stay in the market. Confirmation from the futures market The futures market shows that the short-term situation remains tight. If the return of volumes were actually easing the physical market, we would see it in the futures curve; currently, we observe a stabilization of this state instead. Backwardation on Brent crude—the premium of the front-month contract over the 12-month contract—is deep and has actually widened: normally this premium was only a few dollars, and a few weeks ago it stood at $10, which was already high. Currently, this premium for the expiring front contract has surged to as much as $27. The entire curve lifted upward, including the 12-month end. Meanwhile, physical crude (Dated Brent) is trading at a record premium of +$23 over paper front-month futures. Three independent signals indicate that the physical market remains tight. How does all this look alongside the strong recovery in oil exports? Volume is returning, but it comes more expensively, via longer routes, and excluding certain grades (Iranian), so the physical availability of the right barrel in the right place remains limited. Added to this is the restricted supply of refined fuels. The curve and flow data do not contradict each other; they tell two sides of the same story: plenty of barrels in transit, but expensive and fraught with issues. Technical analysis of Brent crude The technical picture supports the same thesis. Brent, after bouncing off the $110–$113 resistance zone, pulled back toward $99–$100 (the current xStation contract is already the December contract trading below $100—the expiring November contract is quoted at $107 per barrel, significantly inflating calendar spreads), but it remains firmly above all three key moving averages: 25-, 50-, and 200-period. The averages are stacked in a classic bullish alignment: SMA25 (around 98.6) above SMA50 (around 93.8) above SMA200 (around 87.2). This is a textbook definition of an uptrend, and as long as this structure holds, pullbacks are treated as pauses within the trend rather than the start of a sell-off. The key zone is $93–$95, representing the bulls' defense line. Three factors converge here: the 50-period moving average around $93, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally near $95, and a round psychological level. As long as price defends this region, there is no talk of a trend reversal. A signal of a trend shift to bearish would only emerge with a sustained break below $95 and a drop under the 50-period moving average. A mere pullback to this zone is not enough; a daily close clearly below it is required, confirmed by crossing SMA50 from above. Only that would open the path toward lower Fibonacci retracements, namely 50% near $90 and 61.8% at $85. For now, such a signal is absent. Conversely, a move back above $110–$113 would resume the push toward new highs. What next for oil prices? Putting all this information together, the longer-term direction should remain unchanged—moderate declines. On the other hand, the short term remains difficult to assess. However, investors can take some comfort. Supply can rebuild without a formal deal; the workaround mechanism (shuttle, STS, convoys) is operating and expanding almost daily, while Iran is losing control over the strait. This removes fuel from extreme bullish scenarios predicting oil soaring to all-time highs. Given that prices currently sit above estimated demand destruction levels, a scenario of $120–$150 oil does not appear to be the baseline. On the flip side, we currently have a cold war and a plateau. Normalization of supply comes at a very high cost, estimated at up to $30 per barrel. Additionally, Iran is dropping out of supply, and the risk of attacks persists. For investors, this means looking for downside opportunities is attractive yet highly risky, while playing long-term positions makes little sense due to massive backwardation. Nevertheless, if headlines trumpet an agreement again (and Iran is increasingly backed into a corner), a sharp pullback is possible, though none of the tension indicators currently show extreme overbought conditions. Price scenarios Base scenario, probability ~60%: Brent ranges between $93 and $108; the cold war in oil continues. Exports remain restored despite no deal, but workaround costs and risks keep prices elevated. The curve remains in deep backwardation, penalizing short futures positions heavily. Price respects the $93–$95 support and $110–$113 resistance. Bearish scenario, probability ~25%: Brent slides toward $88–$93. The prerequisite is either a real diplomatic breakthrough (opening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of the blockade at least on Iran's side) or a significant drop in current operational costs alongside fewer attacks by Houthis and Iran, lowering the geopolitical risk premium. Confirming signals to watch for together: M1 minus M12 spread below +$12, Dated Brent premium below +$5, TD3c freight drop from ~$200/ton, and technically, a session close below $95 and a break of the 50-period average. Bullish scenario, probability ~15%: Brent above $115. Escalation in the Hormuz area, a successful attack on critical Aramco infrastructure, or a total breakdown of the workaround. Technically, this would mean a return above $110–$113 and a push toward new highs. Conclusions Without a deal, but with a functional workaround, oil enters a cold war phase: exports are returning, dampening extreme bullish scenarios, but shuttle costs, Iranian loss, and deep backwardation keep prices on a high plateau. If a breakthrough occurs in either direction, there will be an opportunity to break out of the current levels near $100 for an extended period.

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Banks

September 28, 2026

Indonesian Rupiah: Rate support erodes as outflows resume – MUFG

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan warns that the Indonesian Rupiah remains exposed as US yield increases erode Indonesia’s rate support. Bank Indonesia has shifted focus from further rate hikes to non-rate stabilisation tools, such as cheaper FX hedging, but renewed foreign portfolio outflows and prospects of weaker trade balances suggest underlying Rupiah pressure persists in the near term. Non-rate tools face persistent pressure "IDR and THB remain more exposed." "Indonesia's rate support has been eroded by the rise in US yields, while Bank Indonesia has shifted its emphasis away from further rate hikes towards non-rate stabilisation measures, including cheaper FX hedging for portfolio investors." "Renewed foreign portfolio outflows in September and the prospect of weaker trade balances in August-September nevertheless suggest that underlying rupiah pressure has not disappeared."

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Banks

September 28, 2026

Euro: Rate uncertainty and energy costs weigh – HSBC

HSBC sees the Euro facing mounting headwinds from both monetary policy and energy markets. The bank notes vulnerability stemming from uncertainty over the European Central Bank’s willingness to raise rates versus a more hawkish Federal Reserve, while Europe’s greater exposure to elevated energy costs and disappointing September data pose challenges for EUR/USD performance and regional growth. EUR pressured by rates and energy "The EUR remains vulnerable to uncertainty over the European Central Bank’s appetite to raise rates, particularly given the Federal Reserve’s more hawkishmessaging at its September meeting." "Even if the relative rates story does not drivedramatic moves in EUR-USD, Europe’s greater exposure to elevated energy costscould weigh on growth and the external balance." "Despite stronger PMI readings,other economic data in September has generally disappointed so far, posing challenges for the EUR."

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Banks

September 28, 2026

USD/JPY: Weekly review highlights Dollar strength – MUFG

MUFG’s Teppei Ino reviews USD/JPY price action over Japan’s extended holiday week. The pair opened near 157 and traded in a broad 156–159 range as Dollar strength persisted and expectations of a possible earlier Federal Reserve rate hike supported gains. However, caution over potential Japanese intervention and comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama saw USD/JPY retreat below 158.50. Dollar gains capped by intervention risk "The USD/JPY opened the week at 156.98." "The pair briefly fell to a low of 156.59 early in Asian trading on 21 September during Japan's extended holiday, but then edged steadily higher amid broad Dollar strength." "Broad Dollar strength continued after the holiday on 24 September, supported in part by expectations that the Fed could bring forward its next rate hike, and the USD/JPY rose to a high of 159.03."

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Banks

September 28, 2026

India rates: Spreads seen narrowing further – DBS

DBS Group Research strategist Sherilyn Chew contrasts India’s domestic backdrop with Indonesia, arguing India is deeper into a tightening phase. Markets are pricing a possible Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hike in October, with liquidity surplus falling after RBI draining measures. She notes wider 5-year IGB-OIS spreads post-FCNR(B) closure and compressed 2s10s, seeing scope for India rates spreads to narrow further as global policy stays hawkish. India curve and tightening expectations "India, by contrast, is moving deeper into a domestic tightening phase." "With markets increasingly positioning for RBI tightening and the global policy backdrop remaining skewed towards further rate hikes, there remains scope for India rates spreads to narrow further."

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Banks

September 28, 2026

US Dollar: Cyclical support and energy resilience – HSBC

HSBC’s FX Viewpoint argues the broad US Dollar is likely to strengthen modestly in the near term as cyclical, political and structural forces turn more supportive. The bank highlights firm US rate expectations relative to other economies, resilience in energy prices and a reassessment of US fiscal risks as factors favouring the Dollar versus major peers. USD supported by rates and energy "We expect the broad USD to strengthen modestly in the near term as cyclical, political and structural forces turn more supportive or become less of a headwind." "The key question is whether US rate expectations will remain firm relative tothose elsewhere." "However, energy-price resilience and a broader reassessment of fiscal risk should also favour the USD at the margin."

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Energies

September 28, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Slip as Pipeline Disruption Meets Strong LNG Demand

US natural gas prices are trading around $3.11/MMBtu, extending their decline for a second session as the market waits for further clarity on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline disruption in West Virginia. The outage has removed an estimated 1.4–1.8 bcfd of gas flows, creating a near-term supply concern. However, the pressure from the pipeline disruption is being offset by production that remains close to record levels and softer price expectations following recent weakness. At the same time, strong LNG feedgas demand continues to provide an important source of support. Flows to the nine major US LNG export plants averaged 17.9 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, even with the 0.8-bcfd Cove Point facility offline for planned maintenance. The market is therefore balancing near-record domestic production against strong LNG demand, pipeline constraints and weather-driven storage withdrawals. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalUS Natural GasAround $3.11/MMBtuPrice TrendFalling for a second sessionMountaineer XPress Disruption1.4–1.8 bcfd affectedSeptember LNG Feedgas17.9 bcfdAugust LNG Feedgas17.2 bcfdCove Point0.8 bcfd offline for maintenanceSeptember ProductionAround 112.5 bcfdProduction TrendNear record levels but daily output decliningStorageSurplus beginning to declineKey RisksPipeline outage, weather, LNG demand Current US Natural Gas Price Action Natural gas has fallen toward $3.11/MMBtu, extending the recent retreat despite several supportive fundamentals. The market is waiting for an update on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline, where an unexpected mechanical problem forced TC Energy's Columbia Gas Transmission unit to declare force majeure. The disruption is affecting approximately 1.4–1.8 bcfd of flows. That represents a meaningful short-term supply constraint, but the market also has substantial production available. September output is averaging around 112.5 bcfd, keeping domestic supply close to record levels. Mountaineer XPress Disruption Keeps Supply Risk Elevated The pipeline outage is one of the most important near-term variables for US natural gas. Crews are working to resolve the mechanical problem, but the timing of a full return to normal flows remains uncertain. Until the pipeline is restored, regional supply balances could remain tighter. The size and duration of the disruption will therefore be critical for determining whether the current price decline can continue or whether the market begins to price a stronger regional supply risk. LNG Demand Continues to Support the Market Strong LNG feedgas demand remains one of the clearest bullish factors. Flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities averaged 17.9 bcfd in September, compared with 17.2 bcfd in August. That increase is particularly notable because the 0.8-bcfd Cove Point facility is currently offline for planned maintenance. Strong export demand is effectively removing a significant volume of US natural gas from the domestic market and provides an important structural source of consumption. Production Remains Near Record Levels US natural gas production continues to provide the principal bearish counterweight. September output is averaging approximately 112.5 bcfd, close to record levels. High production has helped build a substantial storage surplus following mild spring conditions. However, daily output has recently begun to decline, primarily because of lower production in West Virginia and Texas. If that decline continues, the market could become increasingly sensitive to changes in demand and pipeline availability. Hot Weather Is Reducing the Storage Surplus Weather is becoming increasingly important. Hot conditions have begun to draw down the storage surplus accumulated during the period of strong production and mild spring weather. This is changing the market balance at the margin. A large storage cushion limits immediate upside risk, but continued withdrawals would gradually reduce that protection as the market moves forward. The pace of storage withdrawals will therefore be an important indicator of whether the current surplus can persist. Bullish Sentiment Mountaineer XPress disruption: The pipeline outage is affecting approximately 1.4–1.8 bcfd of flows and creates near-term regional supply uncertainty. Strong LNG demand: Feedgas flows to major export facilities have risen to 17.9 bcfd in September. Hot weather: Higher temperatures are beginning to draw down the storage surplus. Declining daily production: Although monthly production remains near record levels, daily output has been falling in key producing regions. Bearish Sentiment Near-record production: September production is averaging approximately 112.5 bcfd, keeping domestic supply abundant. Existing storage surplus: The market entered the current period with substantial inventories following strong production and mild spring conditions. Current price weakness: Natural gas has declined for a second consecutive session despite pipeline and LNG support. Pipeline recovery potential: A successful repair of Mountaineer XPress would restore affected flows and reduce the immediate supply constraint. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next move in US natural gas is likely to depend on the interaction between pipeline restoration, LNG demand, production and weather-driven storage withdrawals. A prolonged Mountaineer XPress outage could tighten regional balances and provide support, particularly if daily production continues to decline and hot weather accelerates storage withdrawals. Conversely, a rapid restoration of pipeline flows combined with continued near-record production could leave the market well supplied and limit any recovery. The LNG export market remains an important upside factor. Continued strong feedgas demand would absorb more domestic supply and could gradually tighten the broader balance. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains relatively comfortable on an aggregate basis because production is still averaging around 112.5 bcfd. However, the recent decline in daily output and the Mountaineer XPress disruption introduce greater short-term uncertainty. The key question is whether production remains close to record levels or whether regional declines become more pronounced. Demand Outlook Demand has several sources of support. LNG feedgas demand is running above August levels, while hot weather is increasing domestic consumption and contributing to storage withdrawals. The combination means that demand could become increasingly supportive if high temperatures persist and LNG exports remain strong. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions US natural gas enters the coming sessions with a mixed fundamental picture. Traders are likely to focus on: Updates on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline repair. The volume and duration of disrupted gas flows. LNG feedgas demand at major export facilities. Daily US production, particularly in West Virginia and Texas. The pace of storage withdrawals. Weather forecasts and cooling demand. The eventual return of Cove Point from planned maintenance. The market's central tension remains clear: production is still near record levels, but LNG demand, hot weather and pipeline disruption are gradually tightening the balance at the margin. Currency Hedger View Natural gas is increasingly connected to international energy markets, LNG trade and global geopolitical developments. Changes in US gas prices can influence energy-company revenues, trade flows and commodity-sensitive currencies. For companies involved in energy trading, international procurement or cross-border payments, understanding the relationship between energy prices, global demand, interest rates and FX markets can help provide a broader view of currency exposure. Currency Hedger provides international currency exchange, cross-border payments and FX solutions for businesses and individuals, helping clients manage currency requirements while understanding the wider market environment. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets US natural gas is currently caught between strong domestic supply and several increasingly important demand and supply constraints. Production remains near record levels, but LNG feedgas demand has strengthened, hot weather is drawing down storage and the Mountaineer XPress disruption is temporarily removing up to 1.8 bcfd of flows. The coming sessions will therefore be shaped by whether the pipeline is restored quickly and whether production remains near record levels. If the disruption persists while LNG demand and weather-driven consumption remain strong, the current storage surplus could continue to shrink and provide greater support to prices. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 28, 2026

Palm Oil Prices Under Pressure as Weak Exports and Rising Stocks Weigh on Demand

Malaysian palm oil futures remain below MYR 4,700 per tonne, hovering near a six-week low as weakness across competing edible oils and softer export demand weigh on the market. The near-term balance remains pressured by sluggish shipments, expectations for higher Malaysian inventories and subdued Indian buying. At the same time, the downside is being partly limited by firmer crude oil prices and emerging weather risks in Southeast Asia. The possibility of a shorter-than-usual wet season in Indonesia from November could create concerns over future crop conditions, while India's recent import-duty reductions could provide additional demand support ahead of the festive season. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalPalm Oil PriceBelow MYR 4,700/tonneMarket PositionNear six-week lowMalaysian Exports-15.1% to -24.3% in first 25 days of September vs previous monthMalaysian InventoriesExpected to increaseIndian DemandSubdued in SeptemberIndia Import DutiesRecently reducedCrude OilFirmerEl NiñoProduction impact has not yet materialisedIndonesia WeatherPotentially shorter wet season from November Current Palm Oil Price Action Palm oil remains under pressure as traders respond to weak export performance and signs that near-term demand may not be strong enough to absorb available supplies. The market is also being influenced by weakness in competing edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. This increases competitive pressure on palm oil and limits the ability of Malaysian futures to recover while broader vegetable-oil sentiment remains soft. However, the decline is not entirely one-directional. Firmer crude oil prices are providing some support, while potential weather-related production risks in Indonesia could become increasingly important as the market looks beyond the current export weakness. Malaysian Exports Remain the Key Near-Term Pressure Point Cargo surveyors estimate Malaysian palm oil shipments fell between 15.1% and 24.3% during the first 25 days of September compared with the same period a month earlier. The scale of the decline is reinforcing concerns that export demand is currently insufficient to prevent inventories from building. If the weaker shipment trend continues through the remainder of September, traders could place greater emphasis on the possibility of higher Malaysian stocks and a more comfortable near-term supply balance. Malaysian Inventories Could Increase Expectations for higher Malaysian palm oil inventories are adding to the bearish tone. A combination of weaker exports and continued production availability would leave more palm oil within the domestic market, potentially increasing stock levels. The inventory outlook will therefore remain an important indicator of whether the current weakness develops into a deeper correction or begins to stabilise. India Demand Offers a Potential Counterweight Indian demand remains subdued during September, creating another headwind for palm oil. However, recent reductions in Indian import duties could improve the economics of buying palm oil and support imports ahead of the country's festive season. The timing is important. If Indian buyers return more actively to the market, the resulting demand could help absorb some of the supply pressure currently weighing on Malaysian futures. El Niño Has Yet to Deliver a Production Shock Industry officials indicate that the effects of El Niño have yet to materialise significantly in palm oil production. That limits the immediate weather premium in prices. However, the absence of a current production shock does not eliminate the possibility of future weather-related risks. Traders are increasingly looking toward Indonesia's weather conditions later in the year, particularly the potential for a shorter-than-usual wet season from November. Indonesian Weather Could Become More Important Indonesia's wet season will be an important factor for the longer-term production outlook. A shorter-than-usual wet season could create concerns over crop conditions and potentially affect future palm yields. While this is not currently offsetting the weakness in exports, it provides a potential source of support if weather conditions deteriorate. For now, the market is balancing weak current demand against possible future production risks. Crude Oil Provides Some Support Firmer crude oil prices are helping limit the downside in palm oil. Higher crude prices can improve the relative attractiveness of vegetable oils for biofuel-related demand, while also influencing broader energy-market sentiment. The rejection of Iran's conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to firmer crude prices, keeping the energy market closely connected to the outlook for palm oil. Bullish Sentiment Indian import-duty cuts: Lower duties could encourage additional Indian purchases ahead of the festive season. Potential Indonesian weather risk: A shorter wet season from November could create concerns over future crop conditions. Firmer crude oil: Higher energy prices are providing support to vegetable-oil markets and limiting downside pressure. Future production uncertainty: Although El Niño has not yet materially affected production, weather remains a potential source of supply risk. Bearish Sentiment Weak Malaysian exports: Shipments during the first 25 days of September are estimated to be 15.1%–24.3% below the previous month's comparable period. Higher inventory expectations: Rising stocks would indicate that supply is currently outpacing demand. Subdued Indian demand: September buying remains weak despite the potential for stronger festive-season imports. Weak competing edible oils: Declines in Dalian and Chicago edible-oil markets are creating additional competitive pressure on palm oil. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Palm oil's near-term direction will depend heavily on whether export demand improves enough to prevent inventories from rising further. Continued weak Malaysian shipments could keep prices below MYR 4,700 and leave the market vulnerable to additional downside. Conversely, stronger Indian buying following the recent duty cuts could provide an important demand catalyst. Weather will become increasingly relevant as the market moves toward November. Evidence of a shorter Indonesian wet season or deteriorating crop conditions could introduce a new supply premium. Crude oil will also remain an important external influence, particularly if geopolitical developments continue to keep energy prices elevated. Supply Outlook The immediate supply picture remains relatively comfortable because El Niño has not yet produced a significant production impact. However, the outlook could become less certain if Indonesian weather conditions deteriorate later in the year. The potential for a shorter wet season provides a forward-looking supply risk that could become more influential if export demand begins to recover. Demand Outlook Demand is currently the principal weakness in the palm oil market. Malaysian exports are soft, Indian September demand remains subdued and competing edible oils are also under pressure. India's lower import duties provide a potential mechanism for demand to strengthen ahead of the festive season. The key question is whether that seasonal buying arrives quickly enough to offset current export weakness. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Palm oil enters the coming sessions with weak exports and rising inventory expectations weighing on prices, while crude oil and future weather risks provide counterbalancing support. Traders are likely to focus on: Malaysian export estimates for the remainder of September. Evidence of inventory accumulation. Indian buying ahead of the festive season. Price movements in competing edible oils. Indonesian weather developments heading into November. The direction of crude oil prices and Middle East geopolitical developments. The market remains caught between soft near-term demand and potentially tighter future supply conditions. Until export demand improves, the immediate pressure remains on the downside, but weather and energy-market developments could become increasingly important for the next phase of price discovery. Currency Hedger View Palm oil is a globally traded commodity, meaning changes in energy prices, Asian demand, trade flows and geopolitical risk can all feed through into currency markets. For importers, exporters and businesses exposed to Southeast Asian currencies, movements in palm oil can also affect transaction costs and margins. Understanding the interaction between commodity prices, trade flows, energy markets and FX can therefore be an important part of managing international currency exposure. Currency Hedger provides international currency exchange, cross-border payments and FX solutions for businesses and individuals, alongside market intelligence designed to help clients understand the forces influencing currency markets. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Palm oil remains under pressure as weak Malaysian exports, expectations of higher inventories and subdued Indian demand outweigh the immediate support from firmer crude oil. The balance could begin to change if India's lower import duties stimulate stronger festive-season buying or if Indonesian weather developments create a more significant production concern heading into November. For now, the market is being driven by a clear contrast between weak current demand and emerging future supply risks. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 28, 2026

Copper Prices Retreat as China Demand Concerns Challenge Supply-Driven Rally

Copper futures are trading around $6.60 per pound, extending their retreat from recent record highs as softer economic data from China raises fresh questions about industrial demand. China remains the world's largest copper consumer, making changes in domestic industrial activity an important signal for the direction of the market. Industrial profits in China increased 15.7% during the first eight months of the year, slowing from the 17.6% increase recorded through July. August provided a more cautious signal, with industrial profits rising only 4.2% year-on-year, the slowest pace since November 2025. The moderation suggests that subdued domestic demand is increasingly offsetting strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. At the same time, the copper market continues to face significant supply-side uncertainty. Operations at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, remain suspended indefinitely following an accident that resulted in the death of a worker. The disruption adds another layer of supply risk after copper recently reached fresh record highs. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalCopper PriceAround $6.60/lbRecent TrendRetreating from record highsChina Industrial Profits+15.7% January–August y/yAugust Industrial Profits+4.2% y/yEscondida MineOperations suspended indefinitelySupply RiskElevatedChina Demand SignalModeratingUS Tariff RiskPolicy decision still pending Current Copper Price Action Copper is pulling back toward $6.60 per pound after last week's rally carried prices to fresh record levels. The immediate catalyst for the decline is softer Chinese industrial data, which is causing markets to reassess the strength of underlying demand. The pullback does not eliminate the supply concerns that drove the earlier rally. Instead, the market is currently balancing two opposing forces: weaker demand signals from China against increasingly significant supply and trade-policy risks. That tension is likely to remain central to price discovery in the coming sessions. China Demand Comes Under Scrutiny China's industrial profit growth slowed to 15.7% for the first eight months, compared with 17.6% through July. More importantly for the near-term demand outlook, August industrial profits increased only 4.2% year-on-year. The data point toward a more uneven industrial environment, with subdued domestic demand offsetting stronger performance from high-tech and AI-related manufacturing. For copper, the distinction is important. Strength in technology-related manufacturing can support structural demand, but weaker broad-based industrial activity could limit near-term consumption growth. Escondida Supply Disruption Adds Support Supply risks remain a major counterweight to the softer Chinese demand picture. Operations at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, have been suspended indefinitely following a fatal accident. The absence of a clear restart timeline introduces uncertainty over how much production may be removed from the market and for how long. Copper had already been supported by supply disruptions before the Escondida suspension. The latest interruption therefore keeps the physical supply side of the market firmly in focus. US Copper Tariff Risk Trade policy is another source of uncertainty. The Trump administration has yet to determine whether tariffs will be imposed on refined copper entering the United States. Any policy decision could alter regional pricing relationships, trade flows and purchasing behaviour. Until the policy direction becomes clearer, traders are likely to maintain a risk premium around US copper trade. Bullish Sentiment Escondida disruption: An indefinite suspension at the world's largest copper mine creates uncertainty around global mine supply. Record-high momentum: Copper's recent move to fresh records demonstrates that supply concerns remain powerful enough to generate substantial upside momentum. Technology demand: Strength in China's high-tech and AI-related manufacturing provides an important structural source of copper demand. US tariff uncertainty: Potential tariffs on refined copper could disrupt established trade flows and contribute to regional supply tightness. Bearish Sentiment Slowing Chinese industrial profits: Growth has moderated from 17.6% through July to 15.7% through the first eight months. Weak August momentum: Industrial profits rose only 4.2% year-on-year in August, the slowest growth since November 2025. Domestic demand weakness: Subdued Chinese domestic demand is offsetting some of the strength from high-tech manufacturing. Correction from record levels: Copper is already retreating from its recent highs, indicating that elevated prices remain vulnerable to demand-related selling. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next phase of the copper market is likely to depend on whether China's softer demand signals or global supply constraints exert greater influence. A continuation of weak Chinese industrial data could keep copper under pressure and extend the current correction from record levels. Conversely, evidence that the Escondida disruption materially reduces supply, combined with continued strength in technology-related demand, could reinforce the longer-term supply-tightness narrative. The US decision on refined copper tariffs is another potential catalyst. A clearer policy direction could produce renewed volatility in regional copper markets. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains uncertain. The suspension of Escondida operations removes an important source of global production visibility, while the lack of a confirmed restart timeline means the market cannot yet determine the full duration of the disruption. For traders, the key issue is whether the mine interruption develops into a prolonged supply constraint or proves temporary. Demand Outlook China remains the critical demand variable. The latest industrial-profit figures indicate that China's broader industrial momentum is becoming less consistent, particularly as domestic demand remains subdued. However, continued strength in high-tech and AI-related manufacturing provides a counterbalance. The market will therefore be watching whether China's industrial slowdown broadens or whether technology-led activity continues to provide support for copper consumption. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Copper enters the coming sessions with demand concerns increasing while supply risks remain elevated. Traders are likely to focus on: Further evidence of Chinese industrial and manufacturing demand. Developments surrounding the Escondida mine suspension. Any decision by the US administration on refined copper tariffs. Whether copper can stabilise following its retreat from record highs. Signs that high-tech and AI-related manufacturing can offset weaker domestic demand. The central market question is increasingly whether the current pullback represents a broader reassessment of copper demand or simply a pause within a market still facing significant supply uncertainty. Currency Hedger View Copper's price direction also matters for companies with international purchasing, manufacturing or commodity-related currency exposure. A move in copper can influence trade flows, producer revenues and the currencies of commodity-sensitive economies, while US policy and the dollar can amplify those effects. For businesses exposed to international currencies, understanding the relationship between commodities, China, US policy, interest rates and FX markets can be as important as monitoring the underlying copper price. Currency Hedger provides businesses and individuals with access to international currency exchange, cross-border payments and FX solutions while helping clients better understand the market forces influencing currency values. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Copper is currently caught between a softer Chinese demand signal and a tightening supply-risk narrative. The retreat toward $6.60 per pound reflects the market's reaction to weaker industrial-profit growth, but the indefinite suspension of Escondida operations means the supply side remains difficult to ignore. The next direction is likely to be determined by the interaction between China's industrial demand, mine supply disruptions and US copper trade policy. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 28, 2026

WTI sticks to modest gains above $92.00 amid Middle East jitters

WTI kicks off the new week on a positive note as the geopolitical risk remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff. Hopes that US-Iran peace talks would resume later this week hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets. Fed hike bets and elevated US bond yields support the USD, which contributes to capping the black liquid. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on a modest gap-up open on Monday as traders opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis before placing fresh bets. Nevertheless, the commodity retains its positive bias through the Asian session and currently trades just above the $92.00 mark, up over 0.80% for the day. US President Donald Trump on Saturday rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week and resume nuclear talks in return for the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Trump added on Sunday that additional military strikes on Iran were possible before the midterm elections in the US, prompting traders to price in the geopolitical risk premium. Adding to this, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran continued their attacks on Saudi Arabia, leaving regional supply flows vulnerable and lending additional support to crude oil prices. Meanwhile, peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the US. Furthermore, Trump said that US negotiators are likely to engage in further talks with Iran this week, fueling hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end the Iran war that started in February. Apart from this, the underlying US Dollar (USD) bullish tone, bolstered by rising bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in October and elevated US bond yields, contributes to keeping a lid on any meaningful upside for the commodity. Adding to this, preliminary data from Kpler showed that crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the Iran war started. This further makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying around crude oil prices in order to confirm that the recent corrective pullback from the highest level since May 20, touched earlier this month, has run its course. Traders might also await the release of China's official PMIs on Wednesday before placing fresh directional bets around the black liquid. WTI daily chart Technical Analysis WTI holds a bullish near-term bias above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $84.96. The advance is also supported by reclaimed Fibonacci levels, with prices trading above the 50.0% retracement at $84.44 and the 38.2% retracement at $88.59, suggesting underlying demand on dips while the market consolidates just below the upper retracement bands. The next relevant hurdle emerges at the 23.6% retracement at $93.72, with a break above this level exposing the structural high zone at $102.01. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $88.59, ahead of the 100-day SMA at $84.96 and the deeper 50.0% retracement at $84.44, which together form a broad demand zone if a pullback develops.

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Energies

September 28, 2026

European Natural Gas Rises as Hormuz Risk Threatens Winter Supply

European natural gas prices are advancing toward €73/MWh, recovering after last week’s decline as renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns over energy supply security. President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the waterway, arguing that its terms are unacceptable, while also indicating that talks with Tehran could resume this week. The renewed uncertainty is particularly important for Europe as the winter heating season approaches. European gas storage is around 70% full, leaving inventories below the five-year seasonal average and the bloc’s target. With Persian Gulf energy flows exposed to geopolitical disruption, the market remains sensitive to any developments that could prolong supply interruptions or increase competition for available LNG. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market PictureEuropean Natural GasAround €73/MWhRecent DirectionRecovering after last week’s declineMain RiskProlonged disruption around the Strait of HormuzEuropean StorageAround 70% fullSeasonal PositionBelow the five-year averageWinter RiskHigher demand could accelerate inventory drawdownKey CatalystUS-Iran negotiations and Hormuz developments Current European Natural Gas Price Action The recovery toward €73/MWh reflects renewed risk pricing rather than a fundamental change in European demand alone. The rejection of Iran’s proposed seven-day arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived concerns that disruption to Persian Gulf energy flows could persist. Although Trump continues to indicate that negotiations with Tehran could resume, uncertainty over the timing and conditions of any agreement is keeping a geopolitical premium in European gas prices. The market is therefore balancing two opposing forces: the possibility of renewed diplomacy that could ease supply concerns, and the risk that prolonged tensions leave Europe competing for limited available LNG as winter approaches. Hormuz Risk Keeps the Energy Market Sensitive The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical transmission point for global energy markets. Any prolonged disruption would affect not only crude oil but also LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, increasing competition between European and Asian buyers. For European gas consumers, the issue is particularly important because storage levels are not yet at the seasonal levels policymakers would prefer ahead of winter. A deterioration in the geopolitical situation could therefore have an amplified impact if European buyers are forced to secure additional cargoes while global LNG availability is constrained. European Gas Storage Remains a Key Vulnerability European storage facilities are around 70% full, but inventories remain below the five-year seasonal average and the European Union's target. That leaves the market with less flexibility if winter demand becomes stronger than expected. Higher storage levels provide a buffer against cold weather and supply disruptions. Lower inventories, by contrast, increase the sensitivity of prices to changes in LNG availability, pipeline flows and weather conditions. The closer the market moves toward winter without rebuilding inventories sufficiently, the greater the importance of each additional supply disruption. Winter Heating Demand The approaching winter heating season is becoming one of the most important variables for European natural gas. If temperatures remain relatively mild, current inventories could provide greater flexibility and reduce the urgency for additional LNG purchases. A colder winter would have the opposite effect, increasing withdrawals from storage and potentially forcing Europe to compete more aggressively for seaborne supply. This makes weather developments increasingly important alongside geopolitical headlines. European Energy Security Concerns European policymakers are already focused on the possibility of an energy-price shock arising from the conflict. The combination of lower-than-target storage, potential Persian Gulf disruption and higher winter consumption creates a market structure in which supply security remains a central concern. Efforts to continue replenishing storage and limit unnecessary demand could therefore remain important throughout the coming weeks. Bullish Sentiment 1. Hormuz disruption risk remains elevatedThe rejection of Iran’s proposed reopening arrangement leaves uncertainty around the duration of disruption affecting Persian Gulf energy flows. 2. European storage is below seasonal benchmarksAround 70% storage leaves less of a cushion heading into the winter heating period. 3. Winter demand could accelerate withdrawalsColder weather would increase gas consumption and could force European buyers into the LNG market at higher prices. 4. LNG competition could intensifyIf Persian Gulf supply remains constrained, Europe and Asia could compete more aggressively for available cargoes. 5. Further geopolitical escalation could increase the risk premiumAny deterioration in the US-Iran situation could quickly feed back into European gas and broader energy markets. Bearish Sentiment 1. US-Iran talks could resumeTrump has indicated that negotiations with Tehran could restart this week, creating the possibility of reduced geopolitical risk. 2. A reopening of Hormuz could ease supply concernsA credible agreement allowing energy flows to normalize would remove a significant risk premium from the market. 3. Current storage levels still provide a substantial bufferAlthough below the seasonal average and target, European inventories are not depleted and remain capable of supporting demand. 4. Lower demand could improve the winter balanceMilder weather or successful demand-management measures could reduce storage withdrawals. 5. Geopolitical uncertainty remains reversibleGas prices could retreat if diplomatic progress proves durable and the market becomes more confident that Persian Gulf energy flows can normalize. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major price signal is likely to come from the direction of US-Iran negotiations and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. A credible agreement that restores energy flows would reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in European gas prices and could shift market attention back toward storage levels and winter demand. Conversely, prolonged disruption would leave Europe facing a more difficult inventory-building environment. If LNG competition increases while European storage remains below seasonal targets, the market could maintain a higher risk premium. The key question is therefore whether diplomatic developments can improve supply visibility before winter demand begins to increase materially. Supply Outlook European supply conditions remain highly sensitive to developments outside the European gas market. Persistent disruption around Hormuz could restrict Persian Gulf LNG availability and increase competition for alternative cargoes. This would make European storage replenishment more expensive and potentially more difficult. A return toward normal shipping conditions would provide the market with greater visibility and reduce pressure on alternative supply sources. Demand Outlook Demand is likely to become increasingly weather-dependent as the heating season approaches. Milder conditions would limit withdrawals and provide more time to rebuild inventories, while colder temperatures could rapidly increase consumption. European efforts to curb demand and maintain storage levels will therefore remain important in determining how much additional LNG the region needs to secure. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions European natural gas is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines in the near term. Traders will be watching: Developments in US-Iran negotiations. Any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Persian Gulf LNG availability. European storage injections and withdrawals. Weather forecasts for the approaching heating season. European efforts to reduce gas demand. Competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes. The immediate market balance remains dependent on whether geopolitical risk begins to ease or becomes embedded more deeply into the European winter supply outlook. Currency Hedger View European natural gas demonstrates why energy markets cannot be viewed independently from currencies, interest rates and geopolitics. A disruption in the Persian Gulf can affect LNG availability, energy prices and inflation expectations, which can subsequently influence central-bank policy, bond yields and currency markets. For businesses exposed to European energy costs, international payments or foreign-currency requirements, understanding these relationships can be just as important as monitoring the underlying commodity price. Currency Hedger provides access to international currency exchange, cross-border payments, business and personal FX requirements, managed FX solutions and market intelligence designed to help businesses understand the wider forces affecting currency markets. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets European natural gas is entering a particularly sensitive period as geopolitical uncertainty meets a tightening seasonal window. Storage around 70% provides a meaningful buffer, but remaining below the five-year average and European target leaves the market vulnerable to a combination of colder weather and prolonged disruption to Persian Gulf energy flows. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by the interaction between diplomacy, LNG availability, European storage and winter demand. A credible reopening of Hormuz could quickly reduce the geopolitical premium, while continued disruption would keep supply security at the centre of the European gas outlook. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 28, 2026

Heating Oil Rebounds as Winter Demand and Tight Inventories Raise Supply Risks

US heating oil futures have climbed back above $4.70 per gallon, ending a three-session decline as renewed uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply routes outweighs uncertainty over potential US diesel export restrictions. The market is balancing several competing forces. The lack of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is keeping energy-supply risks elevated, while the possibility of US restrictions on diesel exports could alter domestic availability. At the same time, the approaching winter heating season is likely to increase demand just as US distillate inventories remain significantly below their seasonal average. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent PositionHeating OilAbove $4.70/galRecent TrendRebounding after three-session declineMiddle East RiskElevatedStrait of HormuzTraffic remains uncertainUS Distillate InventoriesAround 12% below five-year averageWinter DemandPotentially increasingUS Diesel PolicyExport restrictions under considerationKey Market DriversSupply, winter demand, inventories and geopolitics Current Heating Oil Price Action Heating oil has recovered above $4.70 per gallon, reversing part of its recent decline. The rebound reflects renewed concern over the availability of refined fuels as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz persists. The market is also beginning to look ahead to the winter heating season, when demand for distillates typically becomes increasingly important. With inventories already below their five-year average, any disruption to refinery operations, imports or regional fuel flows could have an amplified effect on prices. Middle East Supply Risk The outlook for regional energy flows remains uncertain after the rejection of Iran's conditional proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Although negotiations could resume, the lack of an immediate agreement means traders must continue to account for the possibility of prolonged disruption to one of the world's most important energy corridors. For heating oil, the impact is not limited to crude prices. Disruptions to crude and refined-product flows can affect refinery economics, regional fuel availability and distillate pricing. US Diesel Export Policy US domestic diesel supply is also being influenced by potential government intervention. President Donald Trump has said he is considering a US diesel export ban to reduce elevated domestic fuel prices. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said officials are working with refiners on voluntary export restrictions, while industry groups have proposed alternative measures including suspending the federal diesel tax. The uncertainty creates an unusual market dynamic. Restricting exports could increase the amount of diesel remaining in the domestic market, potentially easing domestic supply pressure, but the policy itself could also alter refinery economics and international product flows. Until the policy direction becomes clearer, traders are likely to continue pricing a degree of uncertainty into heating oil. Winter Heating Demand The approaching winter season is becoming an increasingly important fundamental factor. Colder weather would increase demand for heating fuels at precisely the time when US distillate inventories are already around 12% below the five-year average. This leaves the market more sensitive to changes in weather forecasts, refinery output and fuel consumption. A stronger-than-expected start to the heating season could tighten the physical market further. Distillate Inventory Position The relatively low inventory position provides an important layer of support for heating oil. Inventories sitting approximately 12% below the five-year average leave less of a buffer against unexpected demand or supply disruptions. If winter demand accelerates while inventories remain depressed, the market could experience renewed upward pressure. Conversely, milder weather, stronger refinery production or weaker fuel consumption could allow inventories to rebuild and reduce some of the current supply premium. Bullish Sentiment Low inventories: US distillate inventories are around 12% below the five-year average, leaving the market with a limited supply cushion. Winter demand: The approaching heating season could increase demand for distillate fuels. Hormuz uncertainty: Continued disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz could keep global energy markets supported. Refined-product sensitivity: Tight inventories mean unexpected refinery or supply disruptions could have a disproportionate impact on heating oil prices. Geopolitical uncertainty: A deterioration in Middle East conditions could increase the risk premium across energy markets. Bearish Sentiment Potential diesel export restrictions: A US export ban or voluntary export curbs could increase domestic diesel availability and reduce pressure on US heating oil prices. Possible diplomatic progress: Renewed negotiations could eventually improve energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Demand sensitivity: A milder winter would reduce heating demand and could allow inventories to recover. Policy alternatives: Measures such as fuel-tax relief could reduce domestic price pressure without requiring a prolonged supply disruption. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is whether heating oil can establish support above $4.70 per gallon as traders assess the competing supply and demand risks. A combination of continued Middle East disruption and stronger winter demand could push prices higher, particularly if inventories remain well below seasonal norms. Conversely, a credible agreement that improves energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with US diesel export restrictions and milder winter demand, could reduce the current supply premium. The most important variables will therefore be inventory levels, winter weather, refinery output, US diesel policy and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Supply Outlook The US distillate market enters the winter period with inventories around 12% below the five-year average, leaving relatively limited protection against additional supply disruptions. The direction of US diesel exports could become an important variable. Restrictions would potentially retain more product within the domestic market, while continued exports would leave domestic supply more exposed to international market conditions. Demand Outlook Demand is likely to become increasingly seasonal as winter approaches. Heating requirements will depend heavily on temperatures across the United States. A colder-than-normal winter could rapidly increase consumption and place additional pressure on already-low inventories. Industrial and transportation diesel demand will also remain important to the broader distillate balance. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Heating oil enters the coming sessions above $4.70 per gallon, with the market caught between tightening seasonal demand and uncertainty over potential changes to US diesel policy. The low inventory position provides an important underlying support factor, while developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain capable of generating sharp moves across the energy complex. Traders will be watching for further clarity on US diesel export policy, Middle East negotiations, inventory trends and winter weather forecasts. The key question is whether the approaching heating season will tighten an already-low distillate inventory base faster than additional domestic supply or policy measures can offset it. Currency Hedger View Heating oil provides another example of how geopolitical events can move beyond energy markets and into currencies, inflation and monetary policy. Higher fuel prices can increase inflationary pressure, influence central-bank expectations and affect the cost of international trade and transportation. For businesses with international currency exposure, energy-market developments can therefore become an important part of broader currency-risk management. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals understand the relationship between energy prices, inflation, interest rates, geopolitics and currency markets, while providing international currency exchange and cross-border payment solutions. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Forex Trading

September 28, 2026

Euro Under Pressure as Fed Hawkishness Widens the Policy Divide

The euro is trading near 1.1380 against the US dollar, remaining below the 1.1400 level as a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and continued Middle East tensions support demand for the dollar. The latest move leaves EUR/USD close to levels where the decline could become technically stretched, while the monetary-policy outlook remains the dominant fundamental driver. Markets are increasingly pricing the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate increase in October, while expectations for further European Central Bank tightening remain considerably less certain. With German inflation and retail-sales data due later in the week, incoming European data could become increasingly important for determining whether the euro can stabilise or whether the dollar retains control. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent PositionEUR/USDAround 1.1380Key Psychological Level1.1400Immediate Support1.1355 / 1.1325Technical SupportAround 1.1340Initial Resistance1.1430Major Resistance1.1525–1.1530Upper ResistanceAround 1.1708EUR/USD RSINear 27Fed October Hike PricingApproximately 65.9%ECB October Hike PricingApproximately 45% Current EUR/USD Price Action EUR/USD has fallen below 1.1400 and is trading around 1.1380, extending a decline that has already taken the pair to approximately 1.1358. The move has exceeded some previous expectations for the extent of the euro's decline, but the technical picture now suggests that the sell-off is becoming stretched. The RSI near 27 places the pair in oversold territory, increasing the potential for a corrective rebound even while the broader near-term trend remains under pressure. The key question is whether EUR/USD can reclaim 1.1400 and stabilise, or whether sellers push the pair through the next major support levels. Federal Reserve Rate Expectations The US dollar continues to benefit from increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Recent comments from Fed officials have emphasised persistent inflation risks and the strength of the US economy. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that prolonged inflation could cause elevated prices to become increasingly accepted, while Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson indicated that some further tightening may be warranted. Markets are currently pricing approximately a 65.9% probability of another Fed rate increase in October, up from 57.6% a week earlier and 9.4% a month earlier. This shift in expectations has strengthened the interest-rate support for the dollar. ECB Policy Outlook The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its September meeting. However, expectations for another increase remain less established. Markets are pricing roughly a 45% probability of a further 25-basis-point ECB hike in October, leaving incoming European economic data with considerable potential to shift expectations. This creates an important policy divergence for EUR/USD. If US rate expectations continue rising while expectations for additional ECB tightening remain limited, the relative yield advantage could continue favouring the dollar. Middle East Risk and Safe-Haven Demand Ongoing Middle East tensions are providing another source of support for the US dollar. The unresolved situation surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continues to create uncertainty across energy and financial markets. Persistent geopolitical risk can encourage demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. At the same time, higher oil prices can increase inflation concerns and potentially reinforce expectations for tighter US monetary policy, creating another channel through which Middle East developments can influence EUR/USD. German Data Could Test the Euro The next major European catalysts include German retail sales and consumer-price inflation data. Stronger-than-expected German economic data could support expectations for further ECB tightening and provide the euro with an opportunity to stabilise. Conversely, softer inflation or weaker consumer activity could reduce the probability of additional ECB action and leave the policy differential tilted further toward the dollar. Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Remains Under Pressure EUR/USD remains below both the 100-day simple moving average and the Bollinger Bands' middle line, maintaining a negative technical structure. The RSI near 27 indicates that downside momentum has become stretched and raises the possibility of a short-term corrective rebound. On the downside, support is concentrated around 1.1355 and 1.1325, while the lower Bollinger Band is around 1.1340. A move back above 1.1430 would provide an early indication that the immediate decline is beginning to stabilise. More substantial resistance is located around 1.1525–1.1530, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near 1.1708. Bullish Sentiment Oversold conditions: An RSI near 27 indicates that the recent EUR/USD decline is becoming technically stretched. Strong support zone: The 1.1355–1.1325 region could provide an important area for buyers to defend. ECB tightening remains possible: Markets still price a meaningful probability of another 25-basis-point ECB increase in October. European data upside: Stronger German inflation or economic activity could increase expectations for further ECB tightening and support the euro. Bearish Sentiment Hawkish Fed expectations: Markets are pricing approximately a 65.9% probability of another October Fed rate increase. US-European rate divergence: A widening policy differential could continue to favour dollar-denominated assets. Safe-haven dollar demand: Continued Middle East uncertainty could encourage investors to favour the US dollar. Negative technical structure: EUR/USD remains below the 100-day SMA and Bollinger middle band, keeping downside momentum intact. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is whether EUR/USD can hold the 1.1355–1.1325 support area after falling below 1.1400. A break below this zone would leave the pair vulnerable to further downside, while a recovery through 1.1430 would provide an early signal that selling pressure is beginning to moderate. The broader direction will depend heavily on the policy differential between the Federal Reserve and ECB. Stronger US data or further hawkish Fed communication could reinforce dollar demand, while stronger German inflation and activity data could increase expectations for additional ECB tightening. The oversold technical position also means that a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out even if the broader fundamental pressure remains negative. Supply Outlook For EUR/USD, supply is primarily reflected through currency positioning and the availability of euros relative to dollars in global markets. The recent decline indicates stronger demand for dollars relative to euros, while the increasingly stretched technical position could encourage some short-covering if the pair stabilises around its current support levels. Demand Outlook Demand for the euro will depend heavily on European economic data and expectations for ECB policy. Dollar demand remains supported by higher US rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty. A continuation of this combination could keep EUR/USD under pressure, while a reduction in Fed tightening expectations could shift relative demand back toward the euro. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions EUR/USD enters the coming sessions around 1.1380, below the psychologically important 1.1400 level and close to major technical support. The fundamental picture remains centred on the widening contrast between hawkish Fed expectations and more uncertain ECB tightening expectations. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions continue to provide support for the dollar through safe-haven flows and inflation concerns. The next important signals will come from German inflation and retail-sales data, US economic releases and further Federal Reserve communication. For traders, the 1.1355–1.1325 support zone and 1.1430 resistance level provide important near-term reference points for determining whether the current decline is extending or beginning to stabilise. Currency Hedger View EUR/USD demonstrates why currency exposure cannot be viewed simply as an exchange-rate number. Interest-rate expectations, inflation, central-bank policy, energy prices and geopolitical developments can all change the value of the euro against the dollar and directly affect international payments, business costs and investment returns. For companies with euro or dollar exposure, understanding these relationships can be just as important as executing the currency transaction itself. Currency Hedger combines international currency exchange, global payments and currency-market intelligence, helping businesses and individuals understand the factors influencing their currency exposure. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 28, 2026

Gold Under Pressure as Oil and Fed Expectations Reshape the Market

Gold is trading around $4,250 an ounce, extending its recent decline and approaching its lowest level in seven weeks. The market is facing pressure from a combination of elevated oil prices, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain or increase monetary policy restraint to contain inflation. The immediate outlook for gold is increasingly tied to the interaction between oil prices, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve expectations and geopolitical developments. Investors are now looking toward upcoming US inflation and labour-market data for further clues on the direction of monetary policy. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent PositionGold PriceAround $4,250/ozRecent TrendExtending lossesRecent Technical PositionNear seven-week lowMain PressureHigher oil prices and tighter Fed expectationsKey Macro DriversInflation, Treasury yields, Fed policy and geopoliticsUpcoming FocusUS inflation and employment data Current Gold Price Action Gold has slipped toward $4,250 per ounce, bringing the metal close to its lowest level in approximately seven weeks. The decline reflects a changing macroeconomic environment in which elevated energy prices are increasing inflation concerns while expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening are supporting higher interest rates and Treasury yields. For gold, the combination is significant because higher yields can increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations The stalled US-Iran discussions remain an important driver of the current gold market. The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices elevated, increasing concerns that higher energy costs could feed into broader inflation. If energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, markets may increasingly price a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy response. This creates a difficult environment for gold because the same geopolitical tensions that traditionally support safe-haven demand can also generate higher inflation and interest-rate expectations that weigh on the metal. Federal Reserve Policy Becomes More Important Several Federal Reserve officials have pointed to resilient economic growth and a robust labour market as reasons why additional rate increases could be necessary. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has also highlighted government-debt concerns as a factor contributing to higher long-term Treasury yields. The combination of stronger economic conditions, inflation risks and higher long-term yields is currently reducing some of the support gold typically receives from expectations of easier monetary policy. US Inflation and Jobs Data The next major test for gold will come from upcoming US inflation and employment data. Evidence of persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected labour-market conditions could reinforce expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, potentially placing additional pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker economic data or signs that inflation pressures are moderating could reduce expectations for further tightening and provide renewed support for the metal. Bullish Sentiment Geopolitical uncertainty: The unresolved situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to create significant global uncertainty, potentially supporting safe-haven demand. Oil-market instability: Persistent energy-market disruption could increase demand for defensive assets if broader financial-market volatility rises. Economic-data risk: Weaker US inflation or employment data could reduce expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Safe-haven demand: Escalation in geopolitical tensions could encourage investors to increase exposure to gold despite higher interest rates. Bearish Sentiment Higher Treasury yields: Rising long-term yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Additional Fed tightening expectations: A more restrictive monetary-policy outlook can keep pressure on non-yielding assets. Resilient US economy: Strong growth and a robust labour market provide the Federal Reserve with greater scope to maintain restrictive policy. Persistent energy inflation: Elevated oil prices could reinforce expectations that interest rates need to remain higher for longer. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is whether gold can stabilise around $4,250 or whether continued pressure from higher yields and tighter Fed expectations pushes the metal toward fresh multi-week lows. A sustained decline in Treasury yields or a moderation in US inflation expectations could help gold recover. In contrast, stronger economic data combined with renewed oil-driven inflation pressure could keep the metal under pressure. Geopolitical developments remain a major wildcard. A meaningful improvement in the Strait of Hormuz situation could reduce the geopolitical premium in gold, while renewed escalation could increase safe-haven demand. Supply Outlook Gold's short-term price direction is currently being driven more by financial-market conditions than immediate physical supply changes. Investment flows, interest-rate expectations and geopolitical risk remain the dominant variables for traders as the market approaches a key period of US economic data. Demand Outlook Investment demand is likely to remain highly sensitive to movements in real and nominal yields, the US dollar and global risk sentiment. Geopolitical uncertainty can support defensive demand, but sustained higher interest rates can simultaneously reduce the relative attractiveness of holding gold. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Gold enters the coming sessions around $4,250 an ounce, close to a seven-week low, with the market caught between competing forces. Geopolitical uncertainty and potential safe-haven demand remain supportive, while higher oil prices, Treasury yields and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening are creating significant headwinds. The next major catalyst will be the incoming US inflation and employment data. These releases could determine whether markets increase or reduce expectations for further monetary tightening, making the response in Treasury yields and the US dollar particularly important for gold traders. Currency Hedger View Gold and currencies are closely connected through the US dollar, interest rates, inflation expectations and geopolitical risk. For international businesses and investors, movements in gold can also provide an important signal about changing perceptions of inflation, financial-market risk and the direction of global monetary policy. The current environment illustrates why understanding currency markets requires more than simply watching exchange rates. Oil prices, central-bank policy, Treasury yields and geopolitical developments can all influence the value of major currencies and the cost of international transactions. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals understand these developments while managing international currency exchange and cross-border payment requirements. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 28, 2026

Japan Stocks Hold Near Four-Week High as Market Momentum Builds

Japan’s benchmark stock market index is trading around 66,845 points, its highest level since August 2026, as the broader equity market maintains its upward momentum. The index has gained approximately 0.52% over the past four weeks and is up 48.19% over the past 12 months, highlighting the strength of the longer-term advance. The market is now entering a phase where investors will be watching whether the latest move can extend beyond the recent high or whether elevated valuations and profit-taking create a period of consolidation. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent PositionJapan Stock Market Index66,845 pointsRecent PositionFour-week highFour-Week Performance+0.52%12-Month Performance+48.19%Market FocusMomentum, valuations, earnings and global risk sentiment Current Japan Stock Market Price Action The JP225 has pushed to approximately 66,845 points, marking its strongest level since August. While the four-week gain of 0.52% is relatively modest compared with the index’s much larger 12-month advance, the ability to hold close to recent highs keeps the broader bullish structure intact. The next phase of price action will depend on whether buyers can establish a sustained move above the recent high or whether investors use elevated levels to lock in profits. Strong Longer-Term Momentum The most significant feature of the Japanese equity market remains its 48.19% gain over the past 12 months. Such a substantial annual advance means the market enters the latest phase with considerable momentum already priced into valuations. For traders, the key question is therefore shifting from whether the longer-term trend is positive to whether current momentum can continue without a deeper period of consolidation. Global Risk Sentiment Japanese equities remain sensitive to changes in global risk appetite. A stable international equity environment can continue to support demand for Japanese stocks, while renewed concerns over interest rates, geopolitical tensions or global growth could encourage investors to reduce exposure to risk assets. The coming sessions will therefore be important for determining whether the latest four-week high develops into another leg higher or becomes a short-term resistance area. Bullish Sentiment Four-week high: The JP225 has reached approximately 66,845 points, its highest level since August. Strong annual performance: The index remains up 48.19% over the past 12 months, demonstrating substantial underlying momentum. Recent gains remain intact: Despite the relatively modest four-week increase, the market continues to trade close to elevated levels rather than reversing sharply. Momentum above previous levels: Sustained trading near the latest high could encourage further buying if investors continue to favour Japanese equities. Bearish Sentiment Profit-taking risk: After a 48.19% annual advance, investors may become increasingly willing to secure gains at elevated market levels. Limited recent four-week progress: The 0.52% four-week gain suggests that momentum has slowed considerably compared with the broader 12-month advance. Resistance near recent highs: The August high remains an important reference point, and failure to establish a sustained breakout could trigger consolidation. Global risk sensitivity: Any deterioration in international risk sentiment could weigh on Japanese equities even if domestic conditions remain supportive. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is whether the JP225 can build on its move to 66,845 points and establish a sustained breakout above the recent high. A continuation of strong risk appetite could keep the index supported near current levels and open the door to further gains. Conversely, failure to extend the advance could bring profit-taking and a period of consolidation. The key signal for traders will be the market’s ability to hold elevated levels after testing the August highs. Supply Outlook For an equity index, supply is primarily reflected through available shares, corporate issuance and investor positioning rather than physical production. With the JP225 already substantially higher over the past year, changes in institutional positioning and profit-taking could become increasingly important to short-term market direction. Demand Outlook Demand for Japanese equities remains closely linked to investor risk appetite and expectations for corporate earnings and economic conditions. The strong 12-month performance indicates that demand has been substantial, but the smaller four-week gain suggests that the market may require fresh catalysts to sustain the pace of its longer-term advance. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Japan’s stock market enters the coming sessions near a four-week high at around 66,845 points. The broader trend remains defined by a substantial 12-month gain, while the more modest recent performance suggests that momentum is entering a more important test. Traders will be watching whether buyers can push the JP225 decisively beyond the recent high or whether elevated levels encourage consolidation and profit-taking. Global risk sentiment will remain an important external influence, particularly if volatility increases across international equity markets. Currency Hedger View Japanese equities and the Japanese yen are closely connected to global capital flows, interest-rate expectations and changes in risk sentiment. For international investors, the performance of the JP225 therefore needs to be considered alongside the currency used to fund or repatriate an investment. A strong equity-market performance does not automatically translate into the same return in an investor’s home currency. Movements in USD/JPY and other currency pairs can materially affect the final value of international transactions and investment flows. Understanding the relationship between equities, interest rates, currencies and global risk sentiment is therefore an important part of managing international exposure. For businesses and investors dealing with Japanese yen or other major currencies, Currency Hedger provides access to international currency exchange, cross-border payments and market intelligence. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 28, 2026

US Equities Face Higher-Rate and Geopolitical Pressure

US equity futures are starting the week under pressure as investors assess a combination of elevated oil prices, rising Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East. The rejection of Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has kept energy-market risks elevated, while expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening and concerns over government debt have pushed bond yields toward multi-decade highs. With the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and major US employment data due this week, investors are entering a period where economic data could quickly reshape expectations for interest rates and equity valuations. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationUS equity futuresLower at the start of the weekIndicates cautious risk sentimentOil pricesElevatedIncreasing inflation concernsTreasury yieldsNear multi-decade highsTightening financial conditionsFederal ReserveFurther tightening expectationsPressure on rate-sensitive equitiesUS inflationPCE data due this weekKey policy catalystUS labour marketJobs data due this weekImportant for Fed expectationsMiddle EastHormuz uncertainty remainsMajor source of energy-market riskGovernment debtInvestor concerns increasingAdds pressure to bond yieldsAI sectorContinued policy debatePotential technology-sector catalyst Current US Equity Price Action US stock futures are lower as investors enter the week looking for fresh catalysts. The immediate pressure comes from a combination of higher energy prices and rising bond yields. Elevated oil prices can increase inflation expectations, while higher Treasury yields raise the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings. That combination can create a difficult environment for equities, particularly when investors are already reassessing the path of Federal Reserve policy. Oil Prices Keep Inflation Concerns Alive Energy prices remain one of the most important macroeconomic risks for US equities. Uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude prices elevated, with the latest diplomatic developments providing no immediate certainty that normal energy flows will resume. Higher oil prices can feed into transportation, production and consumer costs, potentially complicating the inflation outlook. For equity markets, the concern is not simply the price of oil itself but the potential impact on Federal Reserve policy if energy inflation becomes persistent. Treasury Yields Add Pressure to Equities US Treasury yields rose toward multi-decade highs last week amid expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and concerns surrounding government debt. Higher yields can increase financing costs for companies while also making fixed-income assets relatively more attractive compared with equities. Growth-oriented companies can be particularly sensitive to changes in yields because a larger proportion of their expected cash flows may lie further into the future. The direction of Treasury yields will therefore remain a key factor for US equity valuations. Federal Reserve Expectations Remain Central Markets are looking toward the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the latest employment data for clues about the next stage of monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected economic data combined with persistent inflation could reinforce expectations that interest rates need to remain restrictive. Conversely, softer inflation or evidence of labour-market cooling could reduce some of the pressure on yields and provide support for equities. The coming economic releases therefore have the potential to change the market narrative quickly. Government Debt Adds Another Source of Uncertainty Concerns over government borrowing are contributing to the rise in Treasury yields. When investors demand greater compensation for holding longer-term government debt, yields can rise independently of short-term monetary-policy expectations. That creates an additional source of pressure for equity valuations because financial conditions can tighten even without an immediate change in the Federal Reserve's policy rate. AI Remains a Key Technology-Market Theme Technology and artificial intelligence remain important themes for US equities. The scheduled meeting between President Trump and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei adds another policy-related catalyst for the technology sector, particularly given recent calls from the company executive for a slower approach to the development of new AI models. The broader AI investment theme remains important for technology valuations, but investors are also increasingly assessing the regulatory and policy environment surrounding the sector. Bullish Sentiment Resilient economic activity: Continued economic strength can support corporate revenues and earnings. Potentially softer inflation: A moderation in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge could reduce pressure on Treasury yields. Labour-market resilience: A healthy employment environment can support household spending and corporate demand. AI investment: Continued investment in artificial intelligence and related infrastructure remains a structural technology-sector theme. Diplomatic progress: A breakthrough involving the Strait of Hormuz could reduce energy-market pressure and ease some inflation concerns. Bearish Sentiment Higher oil prices: Persistent energy costs could keep inflation expectations elevated. Rising Treasury yields: Higher borrowing costs can pressure equity valuations and corporate financing conditions. Further Fed tightening expectations: A more restrictive monetary-policy outlook could keep pressure on rate-sensitive stocks. Government debt concerns: Additional upward pressure on long-term yields could tighten financial conditions. Geopolitical uncertainty: Further escalation in the Middle East could produce another energy-price shock. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major move in US equities is likely to depend on the interaction between inflation, employment, Treasury yields and geopolitical developments. A softer PCE inflation reading or weaker labour-market data could reduce expectations for additional Fed tightening and potentially ease pressure on Treasury yields. A stronger economic and inflation combination could have the opposite effect, particularly if energy prices remain elevated. Meanwhile, any major development surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could quickly alter the inflation and interest-rate narrative. The market is therefore entering the week with economic data and geopolitical risk closely intertwined. Supply Outlook For equities, market supply is primarily reflected through liquidity and financial conditions rather than physical commodity supply. Higher Treasury yields can tighten financial conditions, while elevated oil prices can increase operating and transportation costs for businesses. Any improvement in energy flows through the Middle East could therefore ease some of these pressures. Demand Outlook US economic demand remains an important support for corporate earnings. Employment and consumer activity will provide key signals about whether economic momentum remains resilient. Strong demand could support earnings but may also keep inflation pressures elevated. The balance between growth and inflation will therefore remain central to the equity outlook. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions US equities enter the week facing a combination of higher yields, elevated oil prices and major economic data releases. The PCE inflation data and September employment report will be among the most important catalysts for Federal Reserve expectations. Treasury yields will remain a critical transmission mechanism between those data releases and equity valuations. At the same time, Middle East developments could quickly override the economic narrative if energy-supply risks increase. Technology stocks will also remain sensitive to movements in yields and developments surrounding AI investment and policy. The coming sessions are therefore likely to remain highly responsive to changes in both macroeconomic expectations and geopolitical risk. Currency Hedger View The relationship between equities, bonds, commodities and currencies is particularly important in the current environment. Higher US Treasury yields can support the US dollar, while elevated oil prices can influence inflation, trade balances and central-bank expectations across major economies. For businesses with international revenues, costs or payments, movements in the dollar can therefore become just as important as changes in equity or commodity markets. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets US equities are entering the week with several competing forces in play. Elevated oil prices are keeping inflation risks in focus, rising Treasury yields are tightening financial conditions, and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening are increasing the sensitivity of equity valuations to incoming data. The PCE inflation gauge, US employment report, Treasury yields and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will be among the most important factors shaping the coming sessions. The key question for investors is how these forces interact: whether resilient economic activity can continue to support corporate earnings without creating additional inflation and interest-rate pressure. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Forex Trading

September 27, 2026

Australian Dollar Tests 0.7000 as Fed-RBA Rate Expectations Drive the Outlook

The Australian dollar is trading near 0.7010 against the US dollar as stronger US Treasury yields and increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations keep pressure on AUD/USD. Attention is now turning toward the Reserve Bank of Australia's upcoming interest-rate decision, which could provide an important counterweight to US monetary-policy expectations. The currency remains caught between two opposing forces. A more restrictive Federal Reserve is supporting the US dollar, while rising expectations for further RBA tightening are providing underlying support for the Australian dollar. The next direction for AUD/USD is therefore likely to depend on how aggressively both central banks are expected to respond to persistent inflation. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationAUD/USDAround 0.7010Trading close to the 0.7000 levelUS Treasury yieldsRisingSupporting the US dollarFed policyIncreasingly hawkishPotential headwind for AUD/USDFed October hike expectationsAround 65.9%Reinforcing USD rate supportRBAExpected to tightenPotential support for AUDExpected RBA OCR4.60% after a 25 bp hikeHighest level since 2011Australian unemployment4.6%Slightly above expectationsAustralian participationIncreasedSuggests underlying labour conditions remain firmAUD/USD 100-day SMAAround 0.7070Initial technical resistanceBollinger middle bandAround 0.7130Additional resistanceBollinger lower bandAround 0.7000Important downside levelRSIAround 33Near oversold territory Current AUD/USD Price Action AUD/USD is hovering near 0.7010 after losing momentum as the US dollar strengthens. The 0.7000 area has become an important near-term reference point. A sustained break below this level would indicate that selling pressure is gaining traction, while a recovery above the 100-day moving average around 0.7070 would begin to improve the near-term technical picture. The market is also approaching the RBA decision with traders assessing whether Australian monetary policy can offset the renewed strength of the US dollar. Federal Reserve Keeps a Restrictive Tone Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations that US interest rates could remain elevated. Fed officials have highlighted concerns that persistent inflation could become embedded in consumer and business expectations. The message remains that monetary policy may need to stay restrictive if progress toward the inflation target stalls. Markets are currently pricing a significantly higher probability of another Fed rate increase in October than they were previously. The rise in US Treasury yields has added another source of support for the dollar, increasing the pressure on AUD/USD. RBA Rate Decision Comes Into Focus The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points, potentially taking the Official Cash Rate to 4.60%. Such a move would place the Australian policy rate at its highest level since 2011. However, the rate decision itself may not be the only catalyst for the Australian dollar. Governor Michele Bullock's comments following the decision will be closely watched for indications of whether another increase could follow in November. The market will therefore be assessing both the immediate decision and the potential path for Australian rates beyond September. Australian Labour Market Sends a Mixed Signal Australia's latest labour-market data provides a mixed picture. The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, slightly above expectations and above the RBA's year-end projection of 4.5%. However, the increase in unemployment was accompanied by a higher participation rate. That means the headline rise in unemployment does not necessarily indicate a sharp deterioration in underlying labour-market conditions. For the RBA, the combination of persistent inflation and relatively firm underlying employment conditions could keep additional tightening on the policy table. Rate Differential Remains Central to AUD/USD The relative outlook for the Federal Reserve and RBA remains one of the most important drivers of AUD/USD. If the RBA signals further tightening while the Fed also maintains a restrictive stance, the difference between the two policy paths may remain relatively contained. That could limit some of the pressure created by higher US yields. Conversely, if the Fed becomes more hawkish while the RBA signals caution after its expected move, the interest-rate differential could shift in favour of the US dollar. Commodity Exposure Provides Longer-Term Support The Australian dollar also remains closely connected to global commodity demand. Australia's exposure to commodities associated with energy, AI infrastructure and defence provides a longer-term structural influence on the currency. Strong commodity demand can support Australia's external position and contribute to AUD resilience, although this factor can be outweighed in the short term by movements in US rates and the dollar. Technical Picture: AUD/USD Nears an Important Support Level AUD/USD remains below its 100-day simple moving average and the Bollinger middle band, keeping the near-term technical structure under pressure. The RSI is around 33, indicating that selling pressure is approaching oversold territory. This does not by itself confirm a reversal, but it suggests that the downside move could become increasingly stretched if selling accelerates. The key levels are: 0.7000: Important downside support and Bollinger lower-band area. 0.7070: 100-day moving average and initial recovery resistance. 0.7130: Bollinger middle band. 0.7265: Upper Bollinger band. A sustained move below 0.7000 would keep the downside structure in focus, while a recovery above 0.7070 would provide an initial indication that selling pressure is easing. Bullish Sentiment Potential RBA tightening: A 25 bp increase to 4.60% could reinforce Australian dollar support. Further RBA hikes remain possible: A firm inflation outlook could encourage expectations for additional tightening. Underlying labour conditions remain relatively firm: Higher participation suggests the rise in unemployment needs to be interpreted carefully. Commodity exposure: Australia's strategic exposure to energy, AI and defence-related commodities provides a longer-term source of potential currency support. Oversold conditions: An RSI near 33 means selling pressure is becoming stretched, leaving scope for a technical recovery if the market receives a supportive catalyst. Bearish Sentiment Hawkish Federal Reserve: Expectations for additional US tightening continue to support the dollar. Higher Treasury yields: Rising US yields increase the relative attractiveness of US-dollar assets. AUD/USD below key averages: Trading below the 100-day SMA and Bollinger middle band keeps the near-term technical structure under pressure. 0.7000 support at risk: A clear break below this level could extend the current downside move. RBA caution risk: Even after a rate increase, cautious guidance could limit expectations for further Australian tightening. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major catalyst is the RBA decision and, more importantly, the guidance surrounding the future path of Australian interest rates. A clearly hawkish RBA message could provide the Australian dollar with a catalyst to recover above 0.7070, particularly if US Treasury yields stabilise. A cautious RBA stance combined with continued hawkish Federal Reserve expectations would leave AUD/USD exposed to further pressure around the 0.7000 level. The technical picture is therefore closely aligned with the monetary-policy outlook: 0.7000 on the downside and 0.7070 on the upside are the first levels traders are likely to monitor. Supply Outlook For a currency market, supply is primarily reflected through capital flows and the availability of Australian dollars against demand for US dollars. Higher Australian interest rates can support demand for AUD-denominated assets, while stronger US yields can redirect capital toward US-dollar assets. The relative policy paths of the RBA and Federal Reserve will therefore remain central to AUD/USD flows. Demand Outlook Demand for the Australian dollar remains linked to Australian interest rates, commodity conditions and global risk appetite. A stronger domestic rate outlook could support AUD demand, while renewed US-dollar strength and higher Treasury yields could keep demand tilted toward the dollar. Commodity-market performance will also remain relevant because of Australia's significant exposure to global raw-material demand. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions AUD/USD enters the coming sessions with the 0.7000 level firmly in focus. The RBA decision will determine whether Australian monetary policy can provide a stronger counterweight to the Federal Reserve's restrictive stance. Beyond the rate decision, Governor Bullock's guidance will be particularly important for determining whether markets continue to price further RBA tightening. At the same time, US Treasury yields and expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase will remain major drivers of the US dollar. The coming sessions could therefore produce significant AUD/USD volatility as traders reassess the balance between Australian and US monetary policy. Currency Hedger View The Australian dollar illustrates why currency markets cannot be viewed in isolation. Interest rates, inflation, employment, commodity prices, central-bank policy and global risk sentiment can all influence the cost of exchanging Australian dollars into US dollars and other currencies. For businesses with Australian suppliers, customers or international payment requirements, understanding these forces can help put currency movements into a broader market context. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets AUD/USD is approaching an important decision point as the RBA prepares to address persistent inflation while the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive policy stance. The Australian dollar has underlying support from expectations of further RBA tightening and Australia's commodity exposure, but the US dollar continues to benefit from higher Treasury yields and renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases. The RBA decision, Governor Bullock's guidance, US yield movements and the 0.7000 technical level will be central to the currency's next phase. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Geopolitics

September 27, 2026

Trump says he expects renewed Iran talks this week

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week. Earlier Sunday, Iran stated that it’s awaiting a definitive US response to a seven-day proposal for reopening the strait and other demands it has put on the table, and won’t soften its conditions, CNBC reported. Tehran is sticking to its position that it would only reopen the crucial waterway if its conditions are met, while a senior Iranian military leader stressed his country’s readiness to continue fighting. “Our conditions are clear; any progress toward the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent upon the fulfillment of these conditions, and we will not back down from them,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he expects talks with Iran to resume this week, even after rejecting the latest Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz stated that Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal because the Islamic Republic wanted sanctions relief and access to billions in frozen assets before negotiating an end to its nuclear programme. Saudi Arabia’s capital came under attack from Houthi militants in Yemen on Saturday. Saudi-backed coalition forces in Yemen said air defenses intercepted two drones launched by the Houthis toward Riyadh, as well as a ballistic missile targeting the southern border area of Khamis Mushait.

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Energies

September 27, 2026

Navigating Oil Price Volatility as Hormuz Talks Stall

Crude oil has climbed back above $93 per barrel as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk that the restoration of major oil flows through the waterway could take longer than previously expected. The latest move follows the rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the strait, while Tehran says it is still waiting for a definitive US response and will not relax its conditions. With negotiations potentially continuing this week, the oil market remains highly sensitive to every diplomatic development. At the same time, renewed attacks involving Houthi forces and concerns over elevated US fuel prices are adding further complexity to the energy outlook. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationCrude oilAbove $93/barrelRecovering after previous lossesStrait of HormuzReopening remains uncertainMajor supply-flow riskUS-Iran negotiationsStill unresolvedKey short-term price catalystIranMaintaining existing conditionsLimits certainty over reopeningSaudi ArabiaIntercepting Houthi attacksRegional supply risk remains elevatedAramco facilitiesAlerts issued around operating areasAdds to energy-infrastructure riskUS fuel marketDiesel prices elevatedPotential policy responseUS diesel exportsPossible restrictions under considerationCould alter refined-product flows Current Oil Price Action Crude oil has recovered above $93 per barrel as traders reassess the possibility of a prolonged disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The latest price move reflects the uncertainty surrounding negotiations rather than a confirmed change in physical supply. The market remains caught between the possibility of diplomatic progress and the risk that restrictions on the waterway continue. That creates a highly headline-sensitive environment in which relatively small changes in expectations around negotiations can produce significant moves in crude prices. Strait of Hormuz Remains the Central Market Risk The latest development is President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said it is waiting for a definitive US response to its seven-day proposal and other demands, while maintaining that it will not ease its conditions following the rejection. The uncertainty means the timing of any restoration of normal oil flows remains unclear. For the oil market, the key question is therefore whether negotiations can produce a workable agreement that allows shipping activity to normalise, or whether the standoff continues to restrict flows. US-Iran Negotiations Could Drive the Next Major Move Trump has indicated that negotiations could resume this week, keeping diplomacy at the centre of the near-term oil outlook. A credible agreement could reduce the supply-risk premium embedded in crude prices if traders gain confidence that Hormuz traffic can resume. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations or further escalation could reinforce concerns over prolonged supply disruption. The market is therefore likely to react quickly to any definitive statement from either Washington or Tehran. Middle East Security Risks Remain Elevated The broader regional security situation continues to add uncertainty. Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones heading toward Riyadh as well as a missile targeting Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia. Alerts were also issued around Abha and Jazan, areas where Aramco operates energy facilities. The immediate impact on oil supply remains dependent on whether attacks result in physical damage to energy infrastructure or transportation routes. Nevertheless, continued attacks keep a geopolitical risk premium in the market and increase the sensitivity of crude prices to developments across the region. US Diesel Policy Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty The US is also considering a possible ban on diesel exports as authorities respond to elevated domestic fuel prices. Such a move could change regional refined-product flows and potentially affect diesel availability both inside and outside the US. The proposal therefore adds another variable to an already volatile energy market, particularly as traders assess the relationship between crude prices, refined-product margins and fuel inventories. Bullish Sentiment Hormuz uncertainty: Continued uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keeps a significant supply-risk premium in crude. US-Iran tensions: The rejection of Iran's proposal increases the possibility that disruption to regional oil flows could persist. Regional attacks: Continued Houthi missile and drone activity maintains risks around Saudi Arabia and regional energy infrastructure. Potential infrastructure exposure: Alerts around areas containing Aramco facilities highlight the sensitivity of regional energy supply to further escalation. Fuel-market pressure: Elevated US diesel prices could provide additional support to refined-product markets. Bearish Sentiment Potential negotiations: If US-Iran talks resume and produce an agreement, expectations for the restoration of Hormuz flows could weaken crude's geopolitical premium. Diplomatic progress: A credible reopening plan could rapidly reduce concerns over physical supply disruption. Policy intervention: US measures aimed at addressing domestic fuel prices could alter refined-product market dynamics. Headline-driven pricing: With crude heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, a rapid improvement in the diplomatic outlook could trigger equally rapid price reversals. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate direction of crude oil will depend heavily on the next developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran negotiations. A prolonged standoff, continued attacks or evidence of further disruption to energy infrastructure could keep crude supported above the $93 area and maintain upward pressure. A credible diplomatic breakthrough, however, could quickly reduce the supply-risk premium as traders begin pricing a return toward more normal shipping conditions. The key issue is therefore not simply the level of crude prices, but whether the market receives evidence that physical oil flows through the region can return to normal. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains highly uncertain because the Strait of Hormuz is central to regional energy transportation. Until there is greater clarity over the reopening of the waterway, the market is likely to maintain a risk premium around regional supply. Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes will also remain closely watched as traders assess whether further attacks threaten actual production, exports or transportation. Demand Outlook Demand remains closely connected to the wider global economy and refined-product consumption. Elevated diesel prices could place additional pressure on consumers and businesses, while any restrictions on US diesel exports could alter international product flows. The effect on crude demand will depend partly on whether high fuel prices persist long enough to influence consumption and economic activity. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Oil enters the coming sessions with geopolitics firmly in control of price direction. The next developments in US-Iran negotiations will be particularly important. Any evidence of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz could ease supply concerns, while a prolonged impasse or further regional attacks could reinforce the bullish risk premium. At the same time, traders will monitor developments around Saudi Arabia, Aramco facilities and possible US diesel-export restrictions. The market therefore remains highly sensitive to headlines, with the balance between diplomatic progress and further escalation likely to determine whether crude extends its recovery or gives back recent gains. Currency Hedger View Oil-price volatility can quickly feed into currency markets through inflation, trade balances, interest-rate expectations and changes in investor risk appetite. For companies buying or selling energy internationally, movements in both crude prices and exchange rates can materially change transaction costs and margins. Understanding the relationship between geopolitics, commodities, central-bank policy and currency markets is therefore increasingly important when managing international payments and foreign-exchange exposure. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Oil remains heavily driven by the interaction between geopolitical risk and physical supply expectations. The rejection of Iran's latest Hormuz proposal has delayed confidence in a rapid restoration of normal shipping conditions, while continued regional attacks keep the possibility of further disruption firmly in focus. The coming sessions will therefore revolve around one central question: does diplomacy begin to restore confidence in regional oil flows, or does continued escalation keep the supply-risk premium elevated? Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Banks

September 26, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Consolidation with downside risk toward 6.7330 – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/CNH as consolidating after a move to 6.7200, with momentum slowing in the very near term. For the coming days and weeks, they see the pair likely trading between 6.7120 and 6.7220, while a rapid build-up in momentum suggests potential gains toward 6.7250 and major resistance at 6.7330. Longer term, they expect gradual downside while below 6.7815. Range trade with upside potential "24-HOUR VIEW: USD rose to 6.7200 yesterday before closing little changed at 6.7168 (+0.08%). Upward momentum appears to be slowing, but it is too early to expect a sustained pullback. Today, USD is more likely to consolidate at these higher levels, probably between 6.7120 and 6.7220." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned neutral on USD two days ago (23 Sep, spot at 6.6965), and we expected it “to consolidate between 6.6900 and 6.7080.” We did not expect USD to break above 6.7080 as it rose to a high of 6.7200 yesterday. The rapid build-up in momentum suggests USD could rise to 6.7250, potentially reaching the major resistance at 6.7330."

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Banks

September 26, 2026

South Korean Won: Trade surplus seen widening – ING

ING’s Asia-Pacific research notes that South Korea’s upcoming data should show stronger industrial production and a widening trade surplus, even as export and import growth moderates. Technology and semiconductor exports are expected to underpin the surplus. At the same time, headline CPI is forecast to ease slightly, with core inflation decelerating more sharply, pointing to reduced underlying price pressures. Stronger output with softer inflation "South Korea releases August industrial production data on Wednesday. Market consensus expects industrial production growth to accelerate to 4.5% YoY, from 3.6% in July. Monthly output is forecast to rise 0.5%." "September trade data, out Thursday, is expected to show a moderation in both export and import growth to 61.2% YoY and 20.7% YoY, respectively." "Despite slower growth, the trade surplus is forecast to widen to $38.4bn, supported by continued strength in technology and semiconductor exports." "Headline CPI inflation is expected to ease to 3.0% YoY in September, from 3.1% in August. Core inflation is forecast to slow more sharply to 2.8% YoY, from 3.4%."

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Banks

September 26, 2026

Chinese Yuan: PBoC keeps yuan broadly stable – Societe Generale

Societe Generale describes a limited impact from President Xi’s US visit, with no new tariff cuts or AI dialogue mechanism agreed as the trade truce was only extended to January. USD/CNY rebounded after briefly dipping below 6.70, helped by higher US Treasury yields and a modest easing of PBoC control, while the central bank reiterated a moderately loose stance and commitment to Yuan stability. Policy support and controlled flexibility "China and US extend trade truce until January, but no major new outcomes emerged from President Xi's visit - even the much-anticipated agreements on additional tariff cuts and an AI dialogue mechanism failed to materialize." "USD/CNY bounced back after a brief move below 6.70 as higher Treasury yields combined with a modest easing of the PBoC’s grip on the currency." "The PBoC reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary stance, pledged to keep the yuan broadly stable and signalled a willingness to adjust policy tools as required. Chinese banks left both the 1y and 5y loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively." "Liquidity support was stepped up, with the PBoC raising the daily reverse repo cap to CNY1tn and injecting a net CNY200bn through MLF operations."

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Banks

September 26, 2026

Singapore Dollar: Consolidation near lows against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD held steady around 1.2800 after Wednesday’s surge, with the Singapore Dollar (SGD) supported by expectations of further MAS tightening. Their Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) model sits 1.76% above the mid-point, implying a USD/SGD range of 1.2764–1.2828 today, while renewed Dollar momentum keeps focus on resistance at 1.2835. Dollar holds firm against Singapore Dollar "24-HOUR VIEW: Following the strong surge on Wednesday, USD consolidated between 1.2788 and 1.2811 yesterday, closing unchanged at 1.2800. USD is likely to continue to consolidate today, probably between 1.2780 and 1.2815." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on USD two weeks ago. In our most recent narrative from two days ago (23 Sep, spot at 1.2750), we noted that “upward momentum is starting to ease, and a break below 1.2725 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the advance in USD has stalled.” USD subsequently surged to a high of 1.2813. The renewed upward momentum suggests USD could test the significant resistance level at 1.2835 (we highlighted this level on 17 Sep, as well as in the 1-3 months view below). On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.2770."

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Banks

September 26, 2026

Asian FX: Higher yields and Oil weigh – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that Asian FX traded broadly softer as higher Oil prices and rising US Treasury yields hurt risk sentiment, with Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) underperforming and Philippine Peso (PHP), Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) also weaker. Renminbi (RMB) momentum faded as People's Bank of China's (PBoC) stronger fix trend stalled, while holiday closures in China, South Korea and Taiwan are expected to thin liquidity and potentially increase volatility. Regional currencies under pressure "Asian FX traded broadly softer as higher oil prices and US Treasury yields weighed on risk sentiment. IDR underperformed, while PHP, INR and THB also weakened." "A firmer USD added to the pressure, while RMB gains lost momentum after the recent strengthening trend in the PBoC fix was halted. On the other hand, USD/SGD held steady but near recent highs." "Market liquidity is expected to drop to razor-thin today, with China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for the Mid-Autumn/Chuseok holidays. And next week, China golden-week holidays start on Thu." "Near term, elevated oil prices and US Treasury yields may continue to weigh on Asian FX, in differentiated magnitude while thinner liquidity could see moves turn choppier into the weekend."

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Markets

September 26, 2026

Copper Holds Near Record High as Supply Risks Tighten the Market

Copper remains close to record levels as a combination of disrupted mine supply, refinery maintenance and strong demand from electrification continues to tighten the market. US copper futures are trading near $6.70 per pound, within reach of the record high of $6.80 reached earlier in September. The market is increasingly focused on whether supply disruptions can persist at a time when demand from manufacturing, data centres, energy storage and broader electrification infrastructure remains strong. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationCopper priceAround $6.70/lbRemains close to record territoryRecord high$6.80/lbKey upside reference pointEscondida mineOperations suspendedSignificant supply riskChileWorld's largest copper mine affectedPotentially tighter concentrate availabilityChinaMultiple refineries entering maintenanceCould tighten refined copper availabilityLME prompt spreadWideningSignals tighter near-term physical conditionsUS manufacturingActivity strengthened in SeptemberSupports copper demandElectrificationStrong global project pipelineLonger-term demand supportUS data centresRising copper-intensive infrastructure demandStructural demand driverChina energy storageIncreasing infrastructure investmentAdditional long-term consumption support Current Copper Price Action Copper is holding near $6.70 per pound after reaching a record $6.80 earlier in September. The proximity to the record means the market is entering an important technical and fundamental area. Prices are being supported by immediate concerns over mine supply while longer-term demand expectations remain strong. The latest disruption at Chile's Escondida mine has added another layer of uncertainty because the operation is the world's largest copper mine. With no clear timeline for a restart, the market is having to price a potentially prolonged reduction in supply. Escondida Disruption Raises Supply Risk Operations at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile have been suspended following an accident that resulted in the death of a worker. The disruption comes while union members are already involved in contract negotiations with BHP, increasing uncertainty around the timing of a return to normal operations and raising the possibility of additional labour-related disruption. For the copper market, the importance of Escondida means even a temporary interruption can have an outsized effect on supply expectations. Chinese Refinery Maintenance Adds Pressure The supply situation is being reinforced by planned maintenance at several Chinese copper refineries as the fourth quarter approaches. Lower refinery activity can reduce the availability of refined copper at a time when the physical market is already responding to mine-supply concerns. The impact is visible in the LME prompt spread, which has widened to its highest level of the month. A stronger prompt structure can indicate increasing competition for immediately available metal. US Manufacturing Supports Near-Term Demand US manufacturing activity strengthened during September, providing another supportive signal for copper demand. Copper is closely linked to industrial activity because of its extensive use in electrical equipment, construction, machinery and manufacturing. A stronger US manufacturing environment therefore provides a direct demand component alongside the longer-term electrification story. Electrification Remains a Structural Demand Driver The longer-term copper outlook continues to be supported by rising investment in electrification infrastructure. Data-centre construction in the US is increasing demand for electrical infrastructure, while energy-storage investment in China is creating additional copper requirements. The broader electrification trend means copper demand is increasingly connected not only to traditional construction and manufacturing but also to power grids, renewable energy, batteries, data centres and digital infrastructure. Physical Market Signals The combination of mine disruption and refinery maintenance is particularly important because the market is increasingly focused on the availability of physical metal rather than simply broader economic expectations. The widening LME prompt spread suggests that near-term supply conditions are becoming more significant for price formation. If mine disruptions persist while industrial demand remains firm, physical tightness could continue to support elevated prices. Bullish Sentiment Escondida disruption: The suspension at the world's largest copper mine creates a significant immediate supply risk. Potential labour disruption: Existing contract negotiations add uncertainty around the timing of a full operational restart. Chinese refinery maintenance: Reduced refining activity could tighten refined copper availability during the fourth quarter. Strong electrification demand: Data centres, energy storage and broader infrastructure investment continue to provide structural demand support. Firm US manufacturing: Stronger US manufacturing activity provides an additional near-term demand signal. Bearish Sentiment Record-area pricing: Copper is already trading close to its highest level on record, increasing the importance of demand remaining resilient. Refinery maintenance: While maintenance can tighten refined supply, reduced refinery activity can also temporarily weaken physical consumption of concentrates. Economic sensitivity: Copper remains exposed to changes in global manufacturing and construction activity. Demand expectations: If industrial activity weakens, the market could begin questioning whether current prices adequately reflect future consumption. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Copper's immediate direction will depend heavily on whether the supply disruptions become prolonged and whether demand continues to validate prices near record levels. A sustained disruption at Escondida, combined with tighter Chinese refinery availability and firm manufacturing activity, would keep the market focused on the possibility of further tests of the $6.80 record area. A recovery in mine supply, weaker manufacturing activity or evidence that high prices are beginning to reduce physical demand could instead create resistance around record levels. The key issue for traders is whether the current supply constraints represent a temporary disruption or the beginning of a more persistent tightening of the physical copper market. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook remains uncertain. The Escondida suspension is the most important near-term disruption, while Chinese refinery maintenance adds another constraint as the fourth quarter begins. The market will therefore be watching closely for news regarding the restart of Escondida operations, labour negotiations and the extent of Chinese refinery maintenance. Demand Outlook Demand remains supported by both cyclical and structural factors. Near-term manufacturing activity in the US is providing evidence of resilient industrial demand, while longer-term electrification investment continues to expand copper-intensive infrastructure requirements. Data centres and energy-storage systems are particularly important additions to the traditional demand base, increasing copper's exposure to the expansion of global electricity infrastructure. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Copper enters the coming sessions close to its record high, with supply disruption and structural demand providing the dominant market themes. The $6.80 record remains the key reference point, while the behaviour of the LME prompt spread will provide an important indication of whether physical tightness is continuing to intensify. Traders will also monitor developments at Escondida, Chinese refinery operations and US manufacturing activity. If supply concerns persist while industrial and electrification demand remain firm, copper could continue operating near record levels. Conversely, any meaningful improvement in mine supply or deterioration in manufacturing demand could challenge the current price structure. Currency Hedger View Copper is increasingly connected to the wider global currency and macroeconomic environment. Changes in US interest rates, the dollar, global manufacturing activity and Chinese demand can all influence copper prices and the currencies of major commodity-producing economies. For businesses involved in international trade, understanding the relationship between commodity prices and currency movements can be an important part of managing international payments and foreign-exchange exposure. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Copper remains one of the clearest examples of how immediate supply disruptions can collide with long-term structural demand. The suspension at Escondida creates a significant near-term supply uncertainty, while Chinese refinery maintenance could further tighten physical availability. At the same time, manufacturing activity and electrification investment are providing demand support from both the cyclical and structural sides of the market. With copper already trading close to its record high, the coming sessions will be about determining whether the physical market can absorb these supply disruptions without prices moving into a new phase of price discovery. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 26, 2026

The Week Ahead – Navigating a High-Volatility Week for Global Markets

Global markets enter the coming sessions with monetary policy, inflation, employment and geopolitical risk all competing for attention. The possibility of diplomatic agreements or further escalation involving the US, Iran and Gulf states remains a major driver of energy prices, inflation expectations and global bond yields. High energy prices combined with resilient economic activity have pushed government bond yields toward multi-decade highs, increasing the sensitivity of currencies, equities and commodities to incoming economic data. The US will provide some of the most important signals, with employment, inflation and consumer spending data scheduled alongside fresh manufacturing and services activity indicators. Market Snapshot Market DriverCurrent FocusPotential Market ImpactUS employmentSeptember jobs reportCould influence expectations for Federal Reserve policyUS inflationPCE price indexesKey signal for the interest-rate outlookUS activityISM manufacturing and services PMIsInsight into economic momentumUS consumersPersonal income and outlaysImportant for growth and inflation expectationsGlobal bondsYields at multi-decade highsPressure on currencies, equities and risk appetiteMiddle EastUS-Iran-GCC developmentsMajor influence on energy prices and inflationEurozoneInflation and unemploymentCould reinforce expectations for ECB rate hikesChinaManufacturing and services PMIsFresh signal on Asian and global demandJapanTankan, industrial production and retail salesImportant for the yen and BoJ expectationsAustraliaReserve Bank interest-rate decisionPotential catalyst for the Australian dollarSouth KoreaTrade dataImportant for the AI and technology trade Current Market Price Action The market is entering a period where economic data and geopolitical headlines could produce rapid shifts in expectations. Energy prices remain particularly important. Any progress toward diplomatic agreements involving the Middle East could ease supply concerns and reduce some of the inflation pressure currently feeding into bond markets. Conversely, renewed strikes, restrictions or disruption to energy flows could push prices higher and reinforce concerns about inflation. That creates a difficult backdrop for fixed-income markets. Higher energy costs can increase inflation expectations at the same time that resilient economic activity limits the argument for rapid monetary easing. US Employment Takes Centre Stage The September US jobs report will be one of the week's most important catalysts. The Federal Open Market Committee continues to view the labour market as being around full employment, making the combination of payroll growth, unemployment and wage data particularly important for the next stage of monetary-policy expectations. A resilient labour market could reinforce expectations that interest rates remain restrictive for longer, particularly if inflation data also remains firm. A softer employment picture, however, could increase expectations for further policy accommodation if inflation pressures continue to moderate. US Inflation and Consumer Spending The PCE price indexes will provide another important test for the inflation outlook. Markets will be assessing whether persistent energy costs are feeding into broader price pressures or whether underlying inflation continues to moderate. Personal income and outlays will also provide insight into the strength of household demand. The combination matters because strong consumer activity can support economic growth while also maintaining demand-side inflation pressure. ISM PMIs Provide a Growth Signal The ISM manufacturing and services surveys will provide a fresh assessment of economic momentum. Markets will be watching whether business activity remains resilient and whether companies are reporting changes in new orders, employment and prices. Strong activity combined with elevated price components could reinforce the argument for higher-for-longer US rates. Conversely, evidence of slowing activity could reduce some of the pressure on bond yields. Global Bond Yields Remain a Central Market Driver The rise in global bond yields is becoming increasingly important for currencies and risk assets. Higher sovereign yields can attract capital toward higher-yielding currencies while increasing financing costs across the global economy. They can also put pressure on equity valuations and other risk-sensitive assets. The key question is whether yields continue to rise because of stronger economic activity and inflation, or whether geopolitical developments begin to reduce some of the inflation premium embedded in bond markets. Eurozone Inflation and ECB Expectations Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures will provide important signals for the European Central Bank. Markets are already pricing multiple ECB rate hikes during this cycle, meaning incoming inflation data could influence the speed and extent of those expectations. Persistent inflation would provide support for a more restrictive policy outlook, while softer inflation could reduce pressure for additional tightening. The euro will therefore remain sensitive to the combination of European inflation data, labour-market conditions and movements in US Treasury yields. China and the Asian Growth Outlook China's purchasing managers' indexes will be closely watched during the holiday-shortened week. The data will provide another indication of manufacturing and services momentum in the world's second-largest economy, with potential implications for commodities, industrial currencies and the broader global growth outlook. The strength of Chinese activity is particularly relevant for commodity markets because changes in expectations for Chinese demand can quickly influence metals, energy and agricultural markets. Japan: Tankan, Industrial Production and Retail Sales Japan will release industrial production, retail sales and the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey. Together, these indicators will provide a broader picture of corporate sentiment, manufacturing activity and domestic demand. The data could influence expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan and therefore create additional volatility in the yen, particularly if Japanese economic indicators diverge from expectations. South Korean Trade and the AI Trade South Korean trade figures could provide another important signal for technology and semiconductor demand. With the AI investment theme continuing to influence global equity and technology markets, export performance from a major technology-producing economy can provide insight into the strength of global demand for advanced technology products. Any meaningful shift in export momentum could therefore have implications beyond South Korea itself. Australia: Reserve Bank Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia will also announce its latest interest-rate decision. The Australian dollar will be sensitive not only to the policy decision itself but also to the central bank's assessment of inflation, domestic demand and economic conditions. The currency could also respond to broader risk sentiment and developments in China because of Australia's strong trade relationship with the Chinese economy. Bullish Sentiment Resilient US activity: Strong employment and consumer spending could reinforce expectations for continued economic growth. Strong global demand: Firm economic activity would provide support for industrial commodities and cyclical assets. Potential Middle East diplomacy: Progress toward agreements could reduce energy-supply risks and ease some of the inflation pressure affecting markets. Asian trade resilience: Strong Chinese and South Korean activity could support expectations for global technology and industrial demand. Bearish Sentiment Persistent inflation: Higher energy prices could keep inflation pressures elevated and limit expectations for monetary easing. Rising bond yields: Further increases in sovereign yields could tighten global financial conditions and pressure risk assets. Geopolitical escalation: Renewed strikes or disruption involving the US, Iran or Gulf states could trigger another energy-price shock. Policy uncertainty: Diverging expectations between the Federal Reserve, ECB, BoJ and other central banks could increase currency volatility. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The coming sessions are likely to be driven less by a single market theme and more by the interaction between geopolitical developments, inflation and central-bank expectations. A softer US employment or inflation picture could reduce pressure on bond yields and support expectations for easier monetary conditions. Stronger-than-expected data could have the opposite effect by reinforcing the view that restrictive policy may need to remain in place. At the same time, any significant development involving Middle Eastern energy supplies could quickly override economic data as the dominant market catalyst. Supply Outlook Energy supply remains highly sensitive to developments involving the Middle East. Any improvement in diplomatic conditions could reduce supply-risk premiums, while further escalation could create renewed concerns over energy availability. In other markets, supply expectations will increasingly depend on the economic data emerging from the US, China, Japan and other major economies. Demand Outlook Demand remains relatively resilient, particularly in the US, although higher borrowing costs and elevated energy prices could eventually weigh on consumption and investment. China's PMI data and South Korean trade figures will provide additional evidence on the strength of Asian demand, while US personal income and outlays will offer a direct indication of consumer conditions. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The week ahead could bring significant cross-market volatility as traders assess employment, inflation, growth and geopolitical developments simultaneously. The US jobs report and PCE inflation data are likely to be central to Federal Reserve expectations, while European inflation will influence the ECB outlook. China and South Korea will provide important signals on Asian and technology demand, while Japan and Australia could generate additional currency-specific catalysts. Above all, energy markets remain a potential source of volatility. Diplomatic progress could ease inflation and bond-market pressure, while renewed escalation could produce another increase in energy prices and inflation expectations. The combination means that currencies, bonds, equities and commodities may remain closely interconnected throughout the coming sessions. Currency Hedger View For businesses and individuals with international currency exposure, this environment highlights why understanding the forces behind exchange rates is increasingly important. Interest-rate expectations, inflation, energy prices, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments can all affect currency markets. A movement in the US dollar, euro, yen, Australian dollar or other major currencies can materially change the cost of international payments, receipts and transfers. Currency Hedger provides access to international currency exchange and global payment solutions while helping clients understand the wider market environment influencing their currency exposure. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets The week ahead brings an unusually broad combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts. Employment and inflation data will shape expectations for US monetary policy, while European inflation, Asian trade and central-bank decisions add further sources of currency and market volatility. At the same time, developments in the Middle East remain capable of changing the inflation and bond-market narrative almost immediately. For traders and businesses, the key theme is therefore not simply where individual markets are trading today, but how rapidly expectations can change as new information emerges. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 26, 2026

Natural Gas Prices Retreat as Pipeline Repair Eases Supply Disruption Concerns

US natural gas prices are retreating after a sharp previous-session rally as the market receives confirmation that a major Appalachian pipeline disruption could be resolved quickly. October Nymex natural gas futures fell 10.1 cents, or 3.06%, to $3.20 per MMBtu, reversing part of the previous day's surge to a 2.5-month nearest-futures high. The immediate catalyst is the Columbia Gas Transmission pipeline outage in West Virginia. The operator has identified the leak that triggered the force majeure and expects repairs to be completed over the weekend, reducing concerns that the disruption will become an extended constraint on US gas supply. However, the wider market remains finely balanced between adequate inventories and strong production capacity on one side, and electricity demand, LNG exports and potential weather-driven consumption on the other. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalOctober Nymex Natural Gas$3.20/MMBtuShort-Term TrendPulling backColumbia Pipeline DisruptionRepair expected over weekendEstimated Lost Transportation1.8 Bcf/dayUS Dry Gas Production110.6 Bcf/dayUS Gas Demand69.0 Bcf/dayUS LNG Net Flows18.5 Bcf/dayUS Storage2.9% above 5-year averageOctober Storage Forecast3,985 BcfUS Gas Rigs135European Storage70% fullWeather RiskPotentially warmer winter Current Natural Gas Price Action Natural gas prices are correcting after reaching a 2.5-month high in the nearest futures contract. The previous rally was driven by concerns that the Columbia Gas Transmission outage could materially reduce Appalachian gas transportation capacity. The estimated impact of approximately 1.8 Bcf per day represents around 1.6% of total US supply, making the disruption significant enough to trigger a sharp reaction in futures. The latest update that the leak has been located and repairs are expected over the weekend has reduced the probability of a prolonged supply interruption. That has removed some of the immediate risk premium from the market. Columbia Pipeline Repair Reduces Supply Risk The Columbia Gas Transmission disruption is now primarily a short-term operational issue rather than an open-ended supply threat. The force majeure reduced firm transportation service by an estimated 1.8 Bcf per day. If repairs are completed as expected, normal transportation capacity should begin returning to the market and the supply disruption premium could continue to unwind. However, traders will still monitor the repair timeline and subsequent pipeline flows. Any delay or further mechanical problem could quickly restore upward pressure. US Natural Gas Production Remains High Lower-48 dry gas production was approximately 110.6 Bcf per day, down only 0.5% year over year. Production remains close to historically high levels, providing the market with a substantial supply base as the heating season approaches. The longer-term production outlook is also expanding. The EIA has raised its 2027 US dry natural gas production estimate to 116.0 Bcf per day, from 115.3 Bcf per day previously. Higher expected production is a bearish medium-term factor because it increases the amount of gas available to rebuild storage. Storage Remains Above Seasonal Norms US natural gas inventories continue to provide a significant supply cushion. The latest EIA report showed a 53 Bcf weekly storage injection, slightly above expectations of 51 Bcf but below the five-year average increase of 76 Bcf. As of September 18, inventories were: 4.5% below year-ago levels 2.9% above the five-year seasonal average The combination suggests that supplies are adequate heading into the colder months. The market is therefore not facing the same storage tightness that would normally provide a strong bullish foundation ahead of winter. Record-High Storage Projection The medium-term storage outlook remains a major bearish consideration. The EIA expects US natural gas inventories to reach approximately 3,985 Bcf by the end of October, which would represent the highest October storage level in approximately a decade. That level would also be around 5% above the five-year average. If the forecast is realised, the market would enter the winter heating season with a substantial inventory cushion. That could limit the upside from temporary weather or pipeline disruptions unless winter demand proves significantly stronger than expected. Weather Becomes Increasingly Important Weather will become one of the most important drivers as the market moves toward the heating season. A potential Super El Niño is expected to contribute to warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere during autumn and winter. Warmer temperatures would reduce heating demand for natural gas and could leave more supply in storage. This is one of the major medium-term bearish risks facing the market. However, weather forecasts can change significantly as winter approaches. A colder-than-expected pattern would increase heating demand and could quickly alter the storage outlook. Electricity Demand Provides Support Electricity generation is providing a counterweight to the bearish storage picture. US lower-48 electricity output rose approximately 16.1% year over year to 94,427 GWh during the week ended September 12. Over the preceding 52 weeks, electricity generation increased approximately 3.3% to 4.406 million GWh. Higher electricity generation can support natural gas demand because gas-fired power plants remain an important part of the US electricity system. If power-sector gas demand remains elevated, it could absorb some of the production surplus. LNG Exports Remain Important LNG exports remain another important source of structural demand for US natural gas. Estimated net flows to US LNG export terminals were approximately 18.5 Bcf per day, down around 1.6% week over week. The current level remains substantial, but any sustained increase in LNG exports would tighten the domestic balance by diverting additional gas toward international markets. Conversely, weaker LNG flows would leave more gas available domestically and could increase pressure on storage. US Gas Drilling Reaches Three-Year High The US drilling sector continues to signal strong production potential. Baker Hughes reported that active US natural gas rigs increased by one to 135, the highest level in approximately three years. Higher drilling activity suggests producers retain confidence in the economics of natural gas production. If the elevated rig count translates into continued production growth, it could make it more difficult for the market to achieve a sustained tightening of inventories. European Storage Remains Below Seasonal Average European gas storage provides an important international demand signal. European storage was approximately 70% full as of September 23, compared with a five-year seasonal average of around 86%. The lower-than-average storage position could support demand for imported gas as Europe prepares for the winter heating season. However, the extent of European demand will depend heavily on weather, LNG availability and pipeline supply. Bullish Sentiment 1. Pipeline Disruption RiskThe Columbia outage temporarily removes approximately 1.8 Bcf per day of transportation capacity, and any delay to repairs could quickly restore supply concerns. 2. Strong Electricity GenerationUS electricity output increased 16.1% year over year, supporting gas-fired power demand. 3. LNG Export DemandUS LNG terminals continue to draw approximately 18.5 Bcf per day from the domestic gas system. 4. European Storage DeficitEuropean storage remains significantly below its five-year seasonal average, potentially supporting international demand for LNG. 5. Storage Injection Below AverageThe latest 53 Bcf injection was below the five-year average of 76 Bcf. 6. Winter Weather UncertaintyAny colder-than-expected conditions could rapidly increase heating demand and reduce the current storage cushion. Bearish Sentiment 1. Pipeline Repair Expected QuicklyThe Columbia Gas leak has been identified and repairs are expected over the weekend, reducing the risk of an extended outage. 2. US Storage Above AverageInventories remain 2.9% above the five-year seasonal average. 3. Record Storage PotentialThe EIA expects October inventories to reach approximately 3,985 Bcf, potentially the highest October level in a decade. 4. Higher Production OutlookThe EIA expects US dry gas production to reach 116.0 Bcf per day in 2027. 5. Three-Year High Rig CountActive US natural gas rigs have increased to 135, signalling continued production capacity. 6. Warmer Winter RiskA potential Super El Niño could produce warmer-than-normal temperatures and reduce heating demand. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Natural gas prices are now facing a critical transition from a short-term supply disruption toward the broader storage and weather outlook. If the Columbia pipeline is repaired as expected, the immediate supply premium could continue to unwind. The market would then return its attention to inventories, production, LNG exports and the approaching winter. The biggest upside risk is a colder-than-expected winter or another significant infrastructure disruption. Either could rapidly increase demand or restrict supply while inventories remain below year-ago levels. The main downside risk is that high production and a warmer winter allow inventories to build toward the projected record levels. The next major move will therefore depend on whether weather-driven demand can overcome the market's substantial production and storage cushion. Supply Outlook US natural gas supply remains adequate. Production is holding around 110.6 Bcf per day, the number of active gas rigs is at a three-year high and longer-term production forecasts have been revised higher. The Columbia pipeline disruption is important but currently appears temporary. Unless another major infrastructure problem emerges, the supply outlook should remain relatively comfortable heading into winter. Demand Outlook Demand is more uncertain. Electricity generation is providing strong support, while LNG exports continue to remove significant volumes from the domestic market. However, warmer-than-normal weather could reduce residential and commercial heating demand during the winter. European storage levels also remain below normal, potentially supporting LNG demand, although global LNG availability and weather will determine how much additional US gas is ultimately pulled toward export markets. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Natural gas traders are likely to focus first on confirmation that the Columbia pipeline repairs are completed and transportation flows normalise. After that, attention should shift toward the size of the US storage surplus and the evolving winter weather outlook. The market currently has adequate supplies, but the combination of strong electricity demand, LNG exports and weather uncertainty means the balance can change quickly. The key question for the coming sessions is whether the temporary pipeline disruption was the start of a broader tightening trend or simply a short-lived supply shock within an otherwise well-supplied market. Currency Hedger View Natural gas is priced in US dollars, making currency movements relevant for international buyers, LNG participants, energy companies and businesses exposed to gas-related costs. For companies importing energy or receiving revenues in different currencies, the effective financial impact can change through both the commodity price and the exchange rate. The natural gas market also demonstrates how interconnected financial markets have become. Weather, electricity demand, LNG flows, energy infrastructure and monetary conditions can all influence the value of currencies and the underlying cost of international transactions. A Currency Hedger account provides access to international currency exchange and payment solutions while helping businesses understand the wider market forces affecting their currency exposure. Explore Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Natural gas is moving away from the immediate supply shock created by the Columbia pipeline outage and back toward the broader question of how much gas will be available when winter demand arrives. The repair of the pipeline removes an important short-term bullish catalyst, while high storage, elevated drilling activity and the potential for warmer winter temperatures create significant downside pressure. At the same time, strong electricity generation, substantial LNG demand and below-average European storage provide important sources of support. For now, the market remains highly sensitive to weather and infrastructure developments. The key balance for traders is between ample US supply and the potential for winter demand to tighten the market faster than expected. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 26, 2026

Navigating Oil Price Volatility as Hormuz Talks Ease Supply Fears

Crude oil and gasoline prices are facing renewed selling pressure as negotiations between the United States and Iran raise hopes of a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore disrupted Middle East supply flows. November WTI crude fell $2.20 to $92.15 per barrel, while November RBOB gasoline dropped 14.55 cents to $3.1840 per gallon. The decline accelerated as the crude crack spread fell to a four-week low, reducing the incentive for refiners to purchase crude and process it into gasoline and distillates. The market is therefore balancing two opposing forces. Diplomatic progress could release additional crude supplies and reduce the geopolitical premium, while ongoing attacks across the Middle East and disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure continue to remove significant volumes from the global market. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalNovember WTI$92.15/barrelNovember RBOB Gasoline$3.1840/gallonShort-Term TrendBearish / highly volatileStrait of HormuzPotential reopening under negotiationMiddle East SupplyStill significantly disruptedSaudi Production6.238M bpd in AugustSaudi ExportsAround 3M bpd in AugustRussian Production8.89M bpd in JulyUS Crude Stocks2.1% above 5-year averageUS Gasoline Stocks5.6% below 5-year averageUS Distillate Stocks11.9% below 5-year averageUS Oil Rigs455 Current Oil Price Action WTI crude is retreating sharply as the market begins to price the possibility that diplomatic negotiations could reduce the disruption to Middle East oil flows. The latest decline follows a substantial rally that pushed crude to a four-month high as traders feared that attacks and transportation disruptions would significantly tighten global supply. The shift in sentiment has been particularly visible in gasoline, which has fallen more aggressively than crude. The weaker crack spread is important because it reduces refinery margins and can discourage refiners from purchasing additional crude. This creates another source of short-term pressure for the oil market even while physical supply remains constrained. US-Iran Negotiations Drive the Immediate Outlook The Strait of Hormuz remains the central market variable. US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased arrangement that could allow the Strait to reopen. Iran has reportedly proposed a seven-day framework under which Hormuz could be reopened if specific conditions are met. A successful agreement could materially change the supply outlook because the Strait is a critical route for Middle East energy exports. However, negotiations remain uncertain, with the two sides still divided over sanctions, the blockade and control of navigation through the waterway. That uncertainty means oil prices can continue to react sharply to every development. Middle East Supply Flows Begin to Recover There are signs that additional crude is beginning to leave the region. Oil supertankers capable of carrying approximately 12 million barrels were reported at Saudi Arabia's Persian Gulf export facilities, suggesting that some export capacity is being used despite the continuing disruption. Any sustained increase in Middle East shipments would add bearish pressure to crude prices, particularly if it coincides with progress toward reopening Hormuz. However, the market remains vulnerable to renewed disruption if negotiations fail or attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure intensify. Saudi Arabia Faces Major Export Disruptions Saudi Arabia remains a key source of supply uncertainty. Saudi crude production fell to approximately 6.238 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level since 1990. Exports also fell to approximately 3 million barrels per day, their lowest level in nine years. The East-West pipeline has been particularly important because it provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The 750-mile pipeline, with capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day, was shut as a precaution following attacks. Saudi Arabia has indicated that it plans a meaningful resumption of flows toward the Red Sea. If the pipeline returns to normal operation, some of the supply pressure could ease. If Red Sea security deteriorates further, however, Saudi export flexibility could remain constrained. Houthi Attacks Add Another Supply Risk Oil continues to receive underlying support from attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen. Saudi Arabia reported missile attacks directed toward the Red Sea port of Yanbu and the city of Taif. The Houthis have also expanded their position around the Bab-al-Mandeb region, increasing concerns about shipping security along the Red Sea route. This is particularly important because Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on the Red Sea as an alternative export route while Hormuz remains disrupted. A further deterioration in Red Sea security could therefore prevent Saudi Arabia from fully compensating for the disruption around the Persian Gulf. Russian Oil Supply Adds Another Layer of Tightness Russian oil infrastructure is also under pressure. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks against Russian energy facilities, reducing both refining activity and crude production. Russian crude-processing rates averaged approximately 3.51 million barrels per day in July, the lowest level in 24 years. Russian crude production also fell to approximately 8.89 million barrels per day, according to secondary-source estimates. The disruption is extending beyond crude production into refined products. Russian gasoline production reportedly fell to approximately 80,000 tonnes per day in August, around 70% of domestic demand. This creates the potential for further pressure in global refined-product markets even if crude prices remain volatile. Global Oil Market Remains Fundamentally Tight Despite the latest price decline, the physical oil market remains constrained. Vitol estimates that approximately 2 million barrels per day of Middle East crude exports have been lost, while another approximately 2 million barrels per day of Russian supply has been affected by the disruption to energy infrastructure. Vortexa also reported that crude stored on tankers that had remained stationary for at least seven days fell 8.5% week over week to 88.58 million barrels. Falling floating storage suggests that some of the oil previously held outside normal trading flows is being consumed or redirected. This remains an important counterweight to the bearish impact of improving Middle East diplomatic prospects. US Inventories Show a Mixed Picture US inventory data provide a divided signal. US crude inventories were approximately 2.1% above the seasonal five-year average, indicating that domestic crude availability remains relatively comfortable. However, refined-product inventories are much tighter. Gasoline stocks were 5.6% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories were 11.9% below the seasonal average. This imbalance is important for the oil market because low refined-product inventories could maintain pressure on refinery margins and consumer fuel markets even if crude supply becomes more readily available. US Production Remains Near Record Levels US crude production remains an important source of supply. Production for the week ending September 18 fell slightly to approximately 13.939 million barrels per day, just below the record of 13.947 million barrels per day recorded earlier in September. The high level of US production provides an additional supply cushion and could limit the upside from temporary geopolitical disruptions. The US drilling outlook also remains firm. Baker Hughes reported 455 active oil rigs, an increase of three and matching the highest level seen in approximately 16 months. Bullish Sentiment 1. Middle East Supply LossesApproximately 2 million barrels per day of Middle East crude exports are reportedly disrupted, keeping global supply tight. 2. Saudi Production at Multi-Decade LowsSaudi production fell to approximately 6.238 million barrels per day in August. 3. Russian Energy DisruptionUkraine's attacks are reducing Russian crude production, exports and refining activity. 4. Tight Refined-Product InventoriesUS gasoline stocks are 5.6% below the five-year average, while distillate stocks are 11.9% below average. 5. Red Sea Security RiskFurther Houthi attacks could restrict Saudi Arabia's ability to use the Red Sea as an alternative export route. 6. OPEC+ Supply ConstraintsAlthough OPEC+ has restored previous production cuts, geopolitical disruptions may make planned increases difficult to achieve. Bearish Sentiment 1. US-Iran NegotiationsA successful agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore significant volumes of Middle East supply. 2. Saudi Export Flows Could RecoverThe planned resumption of the East-West pipeline could improve Saudi export flexibility. 3. More Crude Reaching Export TerminalsSupertanker activity at Saudi Persian Gulf facilities indicates that additional crude may be entering the international market. 4. US Crude Inventories Above AverageUS crude stocks remain 2.1% above the seasonal five-year average. 5. Record-Level US ProductionUS output remains close to its record of 13.947 million barrels per day. 6. Higher US Oil Rig CountThe active US oil rig count has returned to a 16-month high of 455. 7. Falling Refinery IncentivesThe crude crack spread has fallen to a four-week low, reducing the incentive for refiners to purchase additional crude. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Oil prices are now being driven by the possibility of a major shift in the geopolitical supply picture. A credible US-Iran agreement that restores navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could release substantial supply and remove part of the geopolitical premium built into crude prices. However, the market remains exposed to renewed disruption. Saudi production and exports remain well below normal levels, Russian energy infrastructure continues to face attacks and refined-product inventories remain tight. The immediate direction will therefore depend heavily on whether diplomatic progress produces actual improvements in physical oil flows. If Hormuz reopens and Middle East exports recover, crude could remain under pressure. If negotiations fail or attacks intensify, the existing supply deficit could quickly regain market attention. Supply Outlook The global supply outlook remains unusually volatile. Additional Saudi flows and a potential reopening of Hormuz would improve availability, while high US production provides another source of crude. Against this, Middle East disruptions and Russian production losses continue to remove significant volumes from the market. The restoration of the Saudi East-West pipeline could become an important near-term supply signal, particularly if Red Sea security remains stable. Demand Outlook Demand is facing a more complicated environment. The IEA expects high oil prices and restricted supply to produce the largest annual decline in global oil demand since the pandemic. At the same time, the agency has raised its estimate of the current global oil deficit to approximately 1.7 million barrels per day, reflecting the scale of the supply disruption. This creates a tension between weaker demand caused by elevated prices and a physical market that remains undersupplied. If prices remain elevated for an extended period, demand destruction could become increasingly important. If geopolitical disruptions ease, lower prices could reduce that pressure. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The oil market is likely to remain highly volatile as traders assess the credibility and timing of US-Iran negotiations. The immediate bearish catalyst is the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring Middle East export flows. The main bullish counterweight is that substantial volumes remain disrupted across Saudi Arabia, Russia and other parts of the region. Refined products will also remain important. Low gasoline and distillate inventories could provide support even if crude supply improves. For the coming sessions, the central question is straightforward: will diplomatic progress translate into a sustained recovery in physical oil flows, or will renewed geopolitical disruption keep the global market tight? Currency Hedger View Oil price movements and currency markets are closely connected. Changes in crude prices can influence inflation, interest-rate expectations, trade balances and the currencies of major energy producers and importers. For businesses exposed to energy costs, international payments or commodity-linked revenues, the effective financial impact can therefore come from both the oil price and the exchange rate. The current oil market is a clear example. A major shift in Middle East supply could move crude prices rapidly, while the resulting changes in inflation expectations and monetary policy could simultaneously affect the US dollar and other currencies. A Currency Hedger account provides access to international currency exchange and payment solutions while helping businesses understand the wider market forces affecting their currency exposure. Explore Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Oil is currently navigating an unusually wide range of competing forces. The prospect of a US-Iran agreement and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are creating immediate downside pressure, while significant supply disruptions remain across the Middle East and Russia. The latest price decline should therefore be viewed within a market that remains fundamentally sensitive to geopolitical developments. A genuine recovery in Saudi export flows and the reopening of Hormuz would materially change the supply picture. Conversely, renewed attacks on energy infrastructure or shipping could quickly restore the risk premium. For now, the direction of oil prices is increasingly dependent on whether diplomatic developments translate into real improvements in global supply flows. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 26, 2026

Coffee Prices Rebound as Dollar Weakness Supports Futures Despite Record Supply Outlook

Coffee prices are recovering from recent lows as a weaker US dollar encourages fund short covering, while traders continue to assess the impact of expanding global production. December arabica coffee rose 3.25 cents to 278.40 cents per pound, while November robusta gained 77 points to $3,369 per tonne. Arabica reached a one-week high as the softer dollar improved the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities. However, the broader coffee market remains under pressure after both contracts recently reached multi-month lows amid expectations for abundant global supplies. The fundamental picture remains mixed. Brazil is producing more coffee, Vietnam's exports are increasing and global production is expected to reach record levels. Against this, arabica inventories remain historically low and weather risks surrounding Brazil's next crop could provide support if conditions deteriorate. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember Arabica278.40 cents/lbNovember Robusta$3,369/tonneShort-Term TrendRecoveringGlobal 2025/26 BalanceApproximately 3M-bag surplus2026/27 Global ProductionRecord expectedBrazil 2026 Production67.6M bagsBrazil Arabica Production48.21M bagsVietnam ProductionHigherArabica ICE Stocks258,415 bagsRobusta ICE Stocks5,398 lotsUS DollarWeaker, supportiveWeather RiskIncreasing importance Current Coffee Price Action Coffee is attempting to recover after a four-week decline that pushed prices to approximately three-month lows. The latest rebound has been driven partly by currency markets. A weaker US dollar reduces the dollar cost of coffee for international buyers and can encourage short covering among speculative traders. However, the broader trend remains constrained by expectations for a substantial increase in global production. The market is therefore entering an important period in which improving supply availability must be balanced against historically low arabica inventories and uncertainty surrounding the next Brazilian crop. Global Supply Outlook Remains Bearish The International Coffee Organization expects the 2025/26 global coffee crop to reach a record 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year over year. At the same time, global consumption is projected to fall 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That combination produces an estimated 3 million-bag surplus, representing the first global coffee surplus in five years. The balance is important because it marks a major change from the tight conditions that supported coffee prices during previous seasons. If production continues to expand faster than consumption, the market could remain under pressure even if short-term weather or currency developments generate temporary rallies. Brazil Production Expands Brazil remains the dominant factor in the global arabica market. Brazil's crop forecasting agency has raised its 2026 production estimate to 67.6 million bags, from a previous estimate of 66.7 million. Arabica production is expected to rise approximately 34.8% year over year to 48.21 million bags, while robusta production is expected to decline 6.6% to 19.39 million bags. The significant increase in arabica production is particularly important for NY futures because Brazil is the world's largest arabica producer. Higher output could improve availability throughout the international supply chain and place additional pressure on prices if exports remain strong. Brazil's Next Crop Enters a Critical Weather Period The outlook for the next Brazilian crop remains an important source of uncertainty. Above-normal rainfall in Minas Gerais during the critical flowering period could improve crop prospects. Approximately 33.4 mm of rain fell during the week through September 20, equivalent to around 242% of the historical average. Good moisture conditions generally support flowering and cherry development, creating a bearish factor for prices if the favourable conditions continue. However, the weather picture can change quickly. Any significant delay in rainfall, excessive moisture or extreme temperatures during flowering could reduce the potential size of the next crop. Brazilian Exports Add to Global Availability Brazilian exports are providing another source of near-term supply pressure. Total coffee exports reached approximately 4.155 million bags in August, up 31% year over year and representing a record August. Arabica exports increased around 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. The increase in exports comes as Brazil's harvest moves toward completion, allowing a larger volume of coffee to reach international markets. If this export pace continues, it could keep pressure on futures despite the historically low arabica inventory position. Vietnam Supplies More Robusta Vietnam is adding further pressure to the robusta market. Vietnamese coffee exports during January-August increased approximately 13.7% year over year to 1.33 MMT. Production for the 2025/26 season is expected to rise approximately 6% to 1.76 MMT, equivalent to around 29.4 million bags. As the world's largest robusta producer, Vietnam's improving supply position is particularly important for London robusta futures. Higher exports and improved soil moisture in the Central Highlands could keep robusta availability elevated in the coming months. Arabica and Robusta Inventories Diverge Coffee inventories are sending different signals across the two markets. ICE arabica stocks recently fell to only 217,646 bags, the lowest level in approximately 27 years, before recovering to 258,415 bags. The extremely low stock level remains a structural source of support for arabica prices. Robusta inventories tell a different story. ICE robusta stocks have climbed to approximately 5,398 lots, a ten-month high. This divergence helps explain why arabica has a stronger underlying inventory argument while robusta faces greater pressure from expanding supply. El Niño Creates a Forward Weather Risk Weather remains one of the largest potential upside risks for coffee. A strong El Niño pattern could disrupt rainfall across Brazil and other major producing regions. In Brazil, concerns centre on the possibility that El Niño could delay September and October rainfall during the flowering period for the 2026/27 crop. If flowering is disrupted, production expectations could be reduced and the current record-supply narrative would weaken. The potential impact is therefore not yet a confirmed supply loss, but it remains an important risk traders will monitor as the crop develops. Bullish Sentiment 1. Historically Low Arabica InventoriesICE arabica stocks remain extremely low despite their recent recovery, providing an important underlying support factor. 2. Weaker US DollarA softer dollar can improve the purchasing power of international coffee buyers and encourage short covering. 3. Brazil Weather RiskAny deterioration in rainfall during the critical flowering period could reduce the next crop's potential. 4. El Niño ThreatA strong El Niño could disrupt rainfall and temperatures across major coffee-producing regions. 5. Strong Global Consumption PotentialAlthough the current global balance is expected to show a surplus, continued demand growth could absorb some of the additional production. 6. Supply ConcentrationBrazil and Vietnam remain critical to global coffee availability, meaning weather disruptions in either country could have an outsized impact on prices. Bearish Sentiment 1. Record Global ProductionThe ICO expects 2025/26 production to reach a record 183.6 million bags. 2. Global SurplusThe market is projected to have a surplus of approximately 3 million bags, the first surplus in five years. 3. Larger Brazilian CropBrazil's 2026 production estimate has been raised to 67.6 million bags, with arabica production expected to increase sharply. 4. Strong Brazilian ExportsAugust exports reached a record for the month and were 31% above the previous year. 5. Rising Vietnamese SupplyHigher Vietnamese exports and production are increasing global robusta availability. 6. Rising Robusta InventoriesICE robusta stocks have reached a ten-month high. 7. Record 2026/27 Global Production ForecastUSDA expects global coffee production to increase approximately 6% to a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Coffee's recent rebound is being supported by the weaker dollar and short covering, but the market still faces a substantial supply challenge. The key question is whether historically low arabica inventories and emerging weather risks can offset the expected increase in global production. A sustained recovery would require evidence that the supply outlook is deteriorating or that demand is strong enough to absorb the additional coffee. Conversely, continued favourable weather in Brazil and Vietnam, strong exports and rising inventories could bring renewed selling pressure once short-covering activity fades. The next major directional move is likely to depend on the interaction between Brazilian crop conditions, global inventory levels, the US dollar and evidence of demand growth. Supply Outlook Near-term supply is expanding as Brazil completes its harvest and exports increase. Vietnam is also contributing greater robusta availability, while favourable growing conditions are improving prospects for future production. Looking further ahead, the USDA expects global 2026/27 production to rise to approximately 189.7 million bags, with Brazilian output forecast at a record 71.9 million bags. This represents a substantial supply cushion if the forecasts are realised. The main threat to that outlook is weather. A significant disruption to Brazil's flowering period or adverse conditions across Asia and South America could result in production estimates being revised lower. Demand Outlook Demand remains the less supportive side of the market balance. The ICO expects 2025/26 consumption to decline approximately 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, leaving production above consumption. For prices to sustain a stronger recovery, demand would need to accelerate or supply growth would need to slow. Low arabica inventories provide evidence that some parts of the physical market remain tight, but rising production and exports could gradually rebuild availability if consumption does not keep pace. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coffee prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to the US dollar and Brazilian weather as the market moves through a critical period for the next crop. The recent recovery demonstrates how quickly prices can respond to currency movements and short covering, but the larger supply outlook remains a significant constraint. Arabica has an important source of support from historically low inventories, while robusta faces greater pressure from rising Vietnamese supply and higher exchange stocks. The coming sessions will therefore centre on whether tight arabica inventories and weather risk can outweigh the broader record-production outlook. Currency Hedger View Coffee is priced internationally in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of the effective cost for importers, roasters, traders and producers. The recent price recovery also demonstrates this relationship directly: a weaker dollar helped trigger short covering and supported coffee futures. For businesses exposed to coffee purchases or sales, movements in the US dollar, Brazilian real, Vietnamese dong and other relevant currencies can materially change margins even when the underlying coffee price is unchanged. A Currency Hedger account provides access to international currency exchange and payment solutions while helping businesses understand the broader market forces influencing their currency exposure. Explore Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Coffee is entering a period where record global supply expectations are competing with exceptionally low arabica inventories and increasing weather uncertainty. The recent rebound has been supported by a weaker dollar and short covering, but the broader fundamental picture remains heavily dependent on Brazil. If favourable rainfall continues through the flowering period and Brazil delivers another large crop, the global supply surplus could keep prices under pressure. If El Niño disrupts rainfall or flowering, the market could quickly reassess the size of the 2026/27 crop. For now, the key distinction is between abundant expected production and tight existing arabica inventories. That divergence is likely to keep coffee prices volatile as traders assess whether future supply can rebuild stocks sufficiently. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 26, 2026

Cocoa Prices Recover as Ivory Coast Weather Risk Collides With Rising Inventories

Cocoa prices are extending their recovery as concerns over dry conditions in West Africa begin to offset evidence of stronger current-season supply. December NY cocoa rose 29 points to 5,619, while December London cocoa #7 gained 22 points to £4,191, marking a fifth consecutive higher session for both markets. The immediate focus is shifting toward the weather outlook for the Ivory Coast, where forecasts for below-normal rainfall could stress cocoa trees and reduce production potential for the 2026/27 crop. At the same time, the market continues to contend with rising inventories and strong current-season arrivals, creating a clear divide between improving near-term supply and growing concerns about the next crop. That tension is likely to keep cocoa prices highly sensitive to West African weather developments, crop assessments and evidence of demand recovery. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember NY Cocoa5,619December London Cocoa£4,191Short-Term TrendRecoveringIvory Coast Current CropStrong production and shipmentsIvory Coast 2026/27 OutlookPotentially lowerICE Cocoa Inventories3.44 million bagsGhana 2026/27 OutlookLower production expectedGlobal 2026/27 BalanceSurplus estimates narrowingWest African WeatherIncreasing dryness riskDemandMixed across regions Current Cocoa Price Action Cocoa has recovered for five consecutive sessions after falling to approximately 1.75-month lows earlier in the month. The rebound is being driven primarily by concerns over the next West African crop rather than a deterioration in current physical supply. The market had previously come under pressure as evidence of strong Ivory Coast production increased available cocoa. The latest weather forecasts are now encouraging traders to look beyond the current crop and assess whether the 2026/27 harvest can maintain recent production levels. This creates a more balanced short-term environment, with the market caught between rising inventories and potential production losses ahead. Ivory Coast Production Remains Strong The Ivory Coast remains the most important factor for global cocoa supply. The country's cocoa regulator reported that farmers harvested approximately 2.06 MMT between June 2025 and June 2026, an increase of around 30% from the previous season's 1.58 MMT. Shipments have also remained strong. Cumulative shipments to ports during the international cocoa marketing year through September 20 reached approximately 2.16 MMT, up 18.7% year over year. This provides substantial near-term supply and helps explain why cocoa prices were under pressure earlier in the month. However, shipment data need to be interpreted carefully because the Ivory Coast has moved its own marketing-year start date forward to September 1. Early deliveries under the new Ivory Coast marketing year have been considerably weaker, providing an additional reason for traders to monitor the transition into the new crop. Dry Weather Threatens the 2026/27 Crop The next major market driver is increasingly the weather. Forecasts for below-normal rainfall in the Ivory Coast over the coming week could reduce soil moisture and place additional stress on developing cocoa trees. This is particularly important because early assessments of the 2026/27 crop have already pointed toward weaker pod development. Initial estimates place Ivory Coast production for the new season around 1.8 MMT, approximately 18% below the roughly 2.2 MMT produced during 2025/26. If dry conditions persist, the market could see further downward revisions to production expectations. Crop Quality Remains a Concern Weather is also affecting crop quality. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine across parts of the Ivory Coast and Ghana have created conditions favourable for black pod disease, which can reduce bean quality and potentially lower usable production. The combination of disease pressure, poor pod development and potential dryness creates a significant risk to the next crop even if total production remains relatively high. Ghana Production Outlook Weakens Ghana provides another important source of medium-term supply risk. The country's cocoa regulator has estimated 2026/27 production at approximately 650,000 MT, down from 750,000 MT during the previous season. Other projections are considerably more cautious. Ghana's cocoa regulator has previously warned that production could fall into a range of 450,000 to 550,000 MT, reflecting swollen shoot disease, aging farms and potential adverse weather. The current season, however, remains strong. Ghana has reported approximately 750,000 MT harvested during 2025/26, up around 25.6% from the previous season. This means the market is dealing with strong current supply while simultaneously pricing a potentially weaker next crop. Rising ICE Inventories Create Near-Term Pressure Cocoa inventories remain one of the clearest bearish factors. ICE-monitored cocoa stocks recently climbed to approximately 3.44 million bags, the highest level in around 2.25 years. Higher exchange inventories indicate that physical cocoa is becoming more readily available within the delivery system. This could limit the upside from weather concerns unless traders begin to see evidence that the additional supply is being absorbed by processors and chocolate manufacturers. The inventory trend therefore remains an important counterweight to the bullish crop-risk narrative. Global Supply Balance Is Tightening The longer-term global balance is becoming less bearish. StoneX has reduced its projected 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to approximately 25,000 MT, from an earlier estimate of 149,000 MT. Other forecasts also point toward a substantially smaller surplus, with global production expected to decline from approximately 5.11 MMT to 4.87 MMT. This would leave the global market much closer to balance than during the current season. A smaller surplus would make the market more sensitive to even moderate production disruptions because there would be less supply available to absorb crop losses. El Niño Adds a Longer-Term Weather Risk The potential return of strong El Niño conditions remains an important medium-term consideration. El Niño can produce warmer and drier conditions across West Africa, reducing soil moisture and placing stress on cocoa trees. If this weather pattern persists through important stages of the 2026/27 crop, the current production forecasts could prove too optimistic. The market therefore has a growing weather premium, although the size of that premium will depend on whether actual crop conditions deteriorate rather than simply on the existence of an El Niño forecast. Cocoa Demand Remains Mixed Demand signals are not moving uniformly across major processing regions. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year over year to 316,366 MT in Q2, marking the lowest second-quarter level in six years. North American grindings provided a more positive signal, rising 7.7% year over year to 109,659 MT, significantly stronger than expectations. Asian demand was stronger still, with Q2 grindings increasing approximately 25% year over year to 224,646 MT. The regional divergence means that the demand outlook remains difficult to assess from a single market indicator. Stronger Asian and North American processing could help absorb available supply, while weaker European demand could continue to limit the pace of inventory drawdowns. Bullish Sentiment 1. Ivory Coast Weather RiskBelow-normal rainfall could stress cocoa trees and reduce 2026/27 production. 2. Lower Ivory Coast Crop PotentialEarly assessments point toward production around 1.8 MMT, potentially 18% below the previous season. 3. Ghana Production RiskDisease, aging farms and adverse weather could significantly reduce Ghana's next crop. 4. Narrowing Global SurplusSeveral forecasts now point toward a global market close to balance in 2026/27. 5. El Niño RiskA strong El Niño could produce warmer and drier conditions across West Africa and reduce yields. 6. Improving Asian and North American DemandStrong Q2 grindings in Asia and North America provide evidence that demand remains resilient in important consuming regions. Bearish Sentiment 1. Rising ICE InventoriesExchange inventories have reached approximately 3.44 million bags, the highest level in around 2.25 years. 2. Strong Ivory Coast Current-Season ProductionHarvests increased approximately 30% year over year to 2.06 MMT. 3. Strong Ivory Coast ShipmentsInternational marketing-year shipments are up around 18.7% year over year. 4. Global Market Still in SurplusEven though forecasts are narrowing, the 2026/27 market is currently still expected to maintain a small surplus in several estimates. 5. Weak European Processing DemandEuropean Q2 grindings fell 4.6% year over year, indicating continued pressure on consumption in a major cocoa-processing region. 6. Strong Ghana Current CropGhana's 2025/26 harvest reached approximately 750,000 MT, substantially above the previous season. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The cocoa market is entering a more uncertain phase after the recent recovery. In the near term, rising ICE inventories and strong Ivory Coast production could limit the upside. However, the market is increasingly looking beyond current availability toward the 2026/27 crop. A sustained period of dry weather in the Ivory Coast would increase the probability of lower production and could encourage traders to price a larger weather premium. Conversely, if rainfall improves and crop conditions stabilise, the recent recovery could lose momentum as inventories remain elevated. The key signal for the coming sessions will therefore be whether weather-driven crop risk begins to outweigh the market's current surplus and inventory position. Supply Outlook Near-term cocoa supply remains relatively comfortable because the Ivory Coast and Ghana have produced significantly more cocoa during the current season. However, the forward supply picture is becoming tighter. Lower expected production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, combined with disease pressure and potential El Niño-related weather disruption, could significantly reduce the amount of cocoa available during the next crop cycle. The market is therefore moving from a period of abundant current-season supply toward a potentially more constrained 2026/27 environment. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed rather than uniformly weak. European processing continues to show signs of pressure, while North American and Asian grindings indicate stronger consumption in other major markets. The direction of global demand will become increasingly important if production declines. A smaller crop combined with stable or improving processing demand could rapidly reduce the current surplus. Conversely, continued weakness in European consumption could help prevent inventories from tightening too quickly. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cocoa traders are likely to focus heavily on Ivory Coast rainfall, crop development and inventory trends. The five-session recovery shows that weather risk is already returning to the market's focus after the recent sell-off. The immediate resistance to further gains comes from strong current-season production and elevated ICE inventories. The longer-term support comes from deteriorating early crop assessments, lower Ghana production expectations and the possibility of El Niño-related weather disruption. The market's direction will ultimately depend on whether the developing 2026/27 crop can deliver sufficient supply to offset the potential decline in West African production. Currency Hedger View Cocoa's international pricing makes currency movements an important part of the physical trading equation. For cocoa producers, processors, exporters and manufacturers, changes in the US dollar, West African currencies, British pound and euro can materially affect the effective value of international transactions. The current cocoa market also demonstrates how currency exposure can interact with commodity fundamentals. Weather disruption can lift cocoa prices, while changes in interest rates, inflation, energy markets and the US dollar can simultaneously alter the cost of sourcing and selling physical cocoa. A Currency Hedger account provides access to international currency exchange and payment solutions while helping businesses understand the wider forces influencing currency markets. Explore Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cocoa is currently balancing strong current-season supply against a potentially tighter 2026/27 crop outlook. The recent recovery reflects growing concern over Ivory Coast weather and early signs of weaker crop development, but elevated ICE inventories and strong current-season shipments remain important constraints on the upside. The critical issue for the coming weeks will be whether the expected decline in West African production becomes sufficiently large to absorb existing inventories and offset the current supply surplus. For now, traders are watching the transition from abundant current-season supply toward potentially tighter future availability, with rainfall, crop quality, inventories and regional processing demand likely to determine the next major move. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 26, 2026

Sugar Prices Retreat as Weak Demand Offsets Tightening 2026/27 Supply Outlook

Sugar prices are under renewed pressure as weak physical demand and heavy contract deliveries offset longer-term concerns over tightening global supply. October NY world sugar #11 futures settled at 16.98 cents per pound, down 0.08 cents, while December London white sugar #5 fell 7.30 points to 501.80 per tonne. The immediate market focus is shifting toward demand and positioning. Large potential deliveries against the expiring October NY contract and historically high deliveries against the recent London October contract suggest that physical demand remains soft. At the same time, commodity funds continue to hold substantial long positions, leaving the market vulnerable to additional liquidation if prices fail to recover. The longer-term outlook remains more complicated. Several forecasts point toward a global deficit in 2026/27, with production risks concentrated in Brazil, India and Thailand. However, the size of that deficit remains highly uncertain, with estimates ranging from a modest shortfall to a much larger imbalance. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalOctober NY Sugar #1116.98 cents/lbDecember London White Sugar$501.80/tonneImmediate TrendBearishPhysical DemandWeakNY Contract DeliveriesPotentially around 1.8 MMT2026/27 Global BalanceForecasts range from deficit to near balanceBrazilLower production riskIndiaWeak monsoon but potential recovery in outputThailandSignificant production decline expectedGlobal WeatherEl Niño remains a major riskFund PositioningLarge NY net-long position Current Sugar Price Action The near-term sugar market is being driven more by demand and positioning than by the longer-term supply concerns that supported prices earlier in September. NY sugar recently reached a 17.25-month high, but has since reversed sharply. London sugar has also moved lower, reflecting concerns that available physical supplies are not being absorbed at the pace required to sustain elevated futures prices. The expiration structure is particularly important. Open interest in the October NY contract indicates that deliveries could reach approximately 1.8 MMT, which would be above the six-year average and could indicate limited demand for nearby physical sugar. London's recent October contract expiration provides another warning signal. Around 499,350 MT was delivered against the contract, up approximately 91% year over year and among the largest October deliveries on record. This suggests that the market currently has more nearby physical availability than consumers are willing to absorb at recent price levels. Physical Demand Becomes the Main Bearish Factor Weak physical demand is currently one of the clearest downside risks for sugar. Large deliveries against expiring contracts can indicate that futures prices have remained above levels where commercial buyers are willing to take physical supply. If nearby demand remains weak, futures could continue adjusting lower until consumption improves or producers reduce the amount of sugar entering the market. The market therefore needs evidence of stronger physical buying before the recent supply concerns can regain control of price direction. Global Sugar Balance Remains Divided The longer-term supply outlook is considerably less bearish than the immediate demand picture suggests. Forecasts for 2026/27 vary significantly. The International Sugar Organization expects global production to decline to approximately 180.1 MMT, with a projected 200,000 MT deficit. StoneX previously projected a substantially larger deficit of 1.7 MMT, although its latest estimate has been narrowed to approximately 900,000 MT. Other forecasts are also changing as new crop information becomes available. Covrig Analytics has moved from expecting a surplus toward a small deficit, while longer-term projections from Czarnikow point to a potentially larger deficit in 2027/28. The wide range of estimates highlights how sensitive the sugar balance remains to production, weather and the allocation of Brazilian cane between sugar and ethanol. Brazil Production and Ethanol Economics Brazil remains the most important supply factor for the global sugar market. Lower Center-South production has already provided support to prices, with June production reported at 3.903 MMT, down 26.3% year over year. The allocation of Brazilian cane between sugar and ethanol will remain important. Higher crude oil prices can improve ethanol economics and potentially encourage mills to divert more cane toward ethanol rather than sugar. That could reduce exportable sugar availability and provide a medium-term bullish factor. However, the Brazilian crop remains large enough that changes in production and crushing rates can materially alter global availability. India Faces a Complicated Supply Outlook India's sugar outlook is increasingly dependent on rainfall and crop development. Cumulative monsoon rainfall was reported at approximately 15% below normal through September 23, although that represented a substantial improvement from the much larger rainfall deficit earlier in the season. The possibility of a weak monsoon remains important because India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. India has also taken the unusual step of allowing up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31. As a normally important exporter, this policy highlights concerns about domestic supply availability. At the same time, longer-term forecasts remain more optimistic. USDA projections call for Indian 2026/27 sugar production of approximately 33.6 MMT, representing a 12% increase year over year. This creates an important divide between current supply concerns and expectations for the next production cycle. Thailand Production Risk Thailand is another significant source of potential supply pressure. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, making changes in its crop particularly important for the international market. Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production at approximately 10 MMT, down around 17% year over year, while USDA forecasts production at approximately 9.5 MMT, representing a decline of roughly 15.6%. A sustained production decline in Thailand would tighten the export market and could become increasingly important if Brazilian and Indian supplies also underperform. Global Weather Risk Weather remains one of the major upside risks for sugar. A strong El Niño pattern could reduce rainfall across important sugar-producing regions, particularly Brazil, India and Thailand. If dry conditions persist into critical crop-development periods, production forecasts could be revised lower and the projected 2026/27 deficit could widen. The market is therefore balancing two very different time horizons: weak demand and heavy nearby deliveries today versus potentially tighter production and inventories later in the cycle. Bullish Sentiment 1. 2026/27 Global Deficit RiskMultiple industry forecasts point toward a global sugar deficit, although the estimated size varies considerably. 2. Lower Brazilian ProductionReduced Center-South output could limit export availability and support international prices. 3. Thailand Crop DeclineThailand's expected production decline could tighten global export availability. 4. Indian Import RequirementsIndia's decision to permit tax-free raw sugar imports is an unusual development for a major exporting country and highlights domestic supply concerns. 5. El Niño RiskPersistent dryness across major producing regions could result in further downward revisions to global production estimates. 6. Ethanol DemandHigher crude oil prices can improve Brazilian ethanol economics, potentially reducing the amount of cane allocated toward sugar production. Bearish Sentiment 1. Weak Physical DemandLarge deliveries against expiring contracts suggest consumers are not absorbing nearby supply aggressively. 2. Heavy NY Sugar DeliveriesPotential deliveries of approximately 1.8 MMT against the October NY contract would be above the recent historical average. 3. Large London DeliveriesThe nearly 499,350 MT delivered against the expired London October contract reinforces concerns over weak physical demand. 4. Large Fund Long PositioningFunds held approximately 161,342 net-long NY sugar contracts, leaving the market exposed to liquidation if momentum deteriorates. 5. Narrower Global Deficit EstimatesStoneX has already reduced its projected 2026/27 deficit from 1.7 MMT to approximately 900,000 MT. 6. Potential Recovery in Indian ProductionHigher acreage and improved rainfall could allow Indian production to recover significantly during the next crop cycle. 7. Record Global Production in 2025/26The current season remains well supplied, with ISO forecasting global production around 182 MMT and a surplus of approximately 1.1 MMT. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate sugar outlook remains vulnerable to further downside while physical demand is weak and large nearby deliveries continue to weigh on sentiment. The key question is whether the market can absorb the current supply without forcing producers and funds to reduce exposure further. A sustained move lower could encourage additional liquidation from the large speculative long position. Conversely, evidence of stronger physical demand, worsening weather in major producing countries or further reductions in 2026/27 production estimates could shift attention back toward the emerging global deficit. The next major directional move is therefore likely to depend on whether near-term demand weakness or longer-term supply risk dominates market expectations. Supply Outlook Near-term global sugar availability remains relatively comfortable, particularly given the strong 2025/26 production outlook. However, the supply picture becomes tighter looking into 2026/27. Brazil faces lower production expectations, Thailand is expected to produce substantially less sugar, and India remains exposed to monsoon conditions. The combination of lower production forecasts and weather uncertainty could gradually tighten the global balance if consumption remains stable. Demand Outlook Demand is currently the market's biggest weakness. Large deliveries against expiring futures contracts suggest that physical buyers are not aggressively competing for nearby supply. Until consumption improves, supply concerns may struggle to generate sustained upside momentum. Demand will therefore be a key confirmation signal for any recovery in sugar prices. If physical buying increases while production estimates continue to decline, the market could begin pricing a tighter 2026/27 balance more aggressively. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Sugar traders are likely to remain focused on the transition from the current well-supplied market toward the potentially tighter 2026/27 balance. In the short term, contract deliveries, fund positioning and physical demand could keep pressure on futures. The market's large speculative long position also creates the possibility of additional volatility if technical support fails. Beyond the immediate contract cycle, attention should shift toward Brazilian production, Indian rainfall, Thailand's crop outlook and the potential impact of El Niño. The central question for the coming sessions is whether the market's emerging supply deficit can overcome evidence of weak demand. Until that balance changes, sugar prices may remain highly sensitive to both liquidation pressure and new crop developments. Currency Hedger View Sugar is a globally traded commodity, so currency movements can materially influence producer margins, export competitiveness and international pricing. For businesses buying or selling sugar internationally, movements in the US dollar, Brazilian real, Indian rupee and other emerging-market currencies can change the effective cost of physical transactions even when the underlying sugar price remains unchanged. The current sugar market also demonstrates why understanding currencies requires more than simply monitoring an exchange rate. Weather, energy prices, central-bank policy, trade flows and geopolitics can all influence the currencies of major producing and consuming countries — and those currency movements can feed directly into commodity economics. A Currency Hedger account provides access to currency exchange and international payment solutions while helping businesses understand the wider market forces affecting their currency exposure. Explore Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Sugar is currently caught between two competing forces. Weak physical demand and large nearby deliveries are creating immediate downside pressure, while declining production expectations and weather risks point toward a potentially tighter global balance beyond the current season. The size and timing of the 2026/27 deficit will be critical. If Brazil, India and Thailand experience further production losses, the longer-term supply outlook could become considerably tighter. If production holds close to current forecasts while demand remains subdued, the market may need to adjust lower before the next fundamental tightening cycle becomes fully priced. For now, traders are watching the transition from near-term demand weakness to potential future supply scarcity. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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September 26, 2026

Cotton Prices Hold Weekly Gains as Export Demand and US-China Trade Outlook Drive the Market

Cotton prices are entering the next phase of trading with a mixed short-term tone but a stronger weekly foundation. Nearby futures remain under pressure, while deferred contracts are holding gains as traders assess export demand, US-China trade developments, speculative positioning and the wider commodity environment. December cotton is around 82.71 cents per pound, while March is near 85.49 cents. December has gained approximately 156 points over the week, despite recent selling pressure in the front months. The market is now looking for clearer signals from US-China trade discussions, while export commitments remain above last year's level but below the normal seasonal pace. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market PictureOctober CottonAround 78.91 cents/lbDecember CottonAround 82.71 cents/lbMarch 2027 CottonAround 85.49 cents/lbDecember Weekly GainApproximately 156 pointsUS Export Commitments4.735 million RBYear-on-Year ChangeUp 17%USDA Projection Progress41%Average Seasonal Pace49%Managed Money Net Long81,610 contractsCotlook A Index93.25 cents/lbICE Certified Stocks29,556 balesAdjusted World Price66.09 cents/lbKey Bullish FactorExport commitments above last year's levelKey Bearish FactorSales pace remains below the historical average Current Cotton Price Action Cotton futures are showing a mixed structure. Front-month contracts remain under pressure, while deferred contracts have maintained gains. December cotton is around 82.71 cents, with March near 85.49 cents, suggesting that the market continues to price a different supply-and-demand balance further forward. The 156-point weekly gain in December remains significant despite the latest selling pressure. The next directional move will depend heavily on whether export demand accelerates and whether US-China trade discussions generate clearer evidence of stronger textile and agricultural trade flows. US-China Trade Developments Remain a Key Catalyst Limited details have emerged from recent discussions between US and Chinese leaders. The market is now waiting for additional information on the outcome of those talks. Greater clarity could be particularly important for cotton because China is a major participant in the global textile supply chain. Any improvement in trade relations could strengthen expectations for US cotton demand. Conversely, continued uncertainty could keep buyers cautious and limit the market's ability to sustain recent gains. Until more concrete information emerges, trade policy remains a significant source of potential volatility. US Export Commitments Are Improving but Still Behind Pace US cotton export commitments have reached approximately 4.735 million running bales, around 17% above the comparable period last year. That is a constructive year-on-year signal. However, commitments represent approximately 41% of the USDA export projection, compared with an average seasonal pace of 49%. The market therefore has two competing demand signals: exports are substantially stronger than last year, but the overall sales pace remains below the historical benchmark. The next several export reports will be important in determining whether the current improvement can accelerate. Physical Cotton Market Remains Relatively Quiet The physical market remains subdued. The latest reported sales were only 164 bales, with an average price of 78.01 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index remains around 93.25 cents, while ICE certified stocks are approximately 29,556 bales. The relatively limited physical-market activity suggests that traders are still looking toward futures, export demand and international trade developments for stronger directional signals. Adjusted World Price Adds Another Dimension The Adjusted World Price has fallen to approximately 66.09 cents per pound. The AWP is important because it influences the competitiveness of US cotton in international markets and provides another reference point for the relationship between domestic futures and global cotton values. A lower AWP can support the competitiveness of US cotton exports, although the impact ultimately depends on global demand and competing origins. Crude Oil and the US Dollar Cotton is also sensitive to movements in the wider commodity and currency complex. Crude oil has recently moved lower, while the US dollar has also softened. A weaker dollar can improve the international competitiveness of US agricultural exports, while lower energy costs can influence synthetic-fiber competition and textile economics. The interaction between oil, the dollar and cotton demand will remain relevant as global textile manufacturers assess input costs. Bullish Sentiment 1. Export Commitments Are Above Last Year's Level US commitments of 4.735 million RB are approximately 17% higher than the comparable period last year, indicating stronger demand than a year ago. 2. December Has Maintained a Strong Weekly Gain Despite recent front-month weakness, December cotton has gained approximately 156 points over the week, demonstrating underlying buying interest. 3. A Weaker US Dollar Can Support Export Competitiveness A softer dollar can reduce the international cost of US cotton and potentially improve the competitiveness of American exports. 4. US-China Trade Clarity Could Improve Demand Expectations Any evidence of improved trade relations could support expectations for stronger textile demand and increased cotton purchasing. Bearish Sentiment 1. Export Sales Remain Behind the Normal Pace Commitments are only 41% of the USDA projection compared with a 49% average seasonal pace. 2. Front-Month Futures Are Under Pressure Nearby contracts have recently declined, indicating that short-term buying interest remains inconsistent. 3. Managed Money Has Reduced Its Long Position Managed money cut approximately 16,293 contracts from its net-long position, reducing it to 81,610 contracts. Further reductions could create additional selling pressure. 4. Physical Market Activity Remains Limited The latest reported physical sale involved only 164 bales, suggesting that immediate cash-market demand remains relatively subdued. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Cotton's next major move is likely to depend on whether the market receives stronger evidence of improving export demand. A combination of stronger US-China trade prospects, continued export growth and a softer dollar could support a further recovery in futures. However, the market still needs to overcome the gap between current export commitments and the historical seasonal pace. Continued speculative liquidation could also weigh on prices if demand expectations weaken. The structure therefore remains dependent on whether improving year-on-year exports can translate into a faster overall sales pace. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook remains relatively stable, with ICE certified stocks around 29,556 bales. The market will continue monitoring US crop availability, export competitiveness and the flow of cotton into certified inventories. The relationship between domestic supply and global demand will become increasingly important as the marketing year develops. Demand Outlook Demand is showing encouraging year-on-year improvement, with US export commitments approximately 17% above last year's level. However, the market still needs to see stronger purchasing activity to reach the historical seasonal pace. China and other major textile-producing and importing markets will remain particularly important. Any improvement in US-China trade relations could provide an additional demand catalyst. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cotton traders will be watching US-China trade developments, export sales, the US dollar, crude oil, managed-money positioning and physical-market activity. The market has a constructive weekly foundation, but the latest front-month weakness shows that buyers are not yet fully committed to a sustained rally. The key question is whether export demand can accelerate enough to close the gap with the normal seasonal sales pace. If it does, the market could receive a stronger fundamental foundation. If demand remains below expectations, recent gains could become vulnerable to profit-taking and further speculative liquidation. Currency Hedger View Cotton is deeply connected to international currency markets because global textile production and cotton purchasing span multiple economies. The US dollar directly influences the competitiveness of US cotton, while currencies across major textile-producing economies affect the cost of raw materials for mills and manufacturers. Trade policy is equally important. Changes in US-China relations can affect both cotton demand and currency expectations, while movements in oil prices can influence global inflation and production costs. Currency Hedger provides international currency exchange, cross-border payments and market-focused FX services, helping businesses understand the relationship between currency movements, commodities and global economic developments. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cotton enters the coming sessions with stronger year-on-year export demand but an export-sales pace that remains below its historical benchmark. The 17% improvement in commitments is constructive, while the 156-point weekly gain in December shows that the market retains underlying support. However, the reduction in managed-money length and recent front-month weakness indicate that traders remain cautious. US-China trade developments could become the next major catalyst. Clear evidence of stronger agricultural and textile trade could reinforce demand expectations, while continued uncertainty would leave cotton dependent on export sales and currency competitiveness. For the coming sessions, the critical signals will be export demand, US-China trade clarity and the direction of speculative positioning. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 26, 2026

Cattle Prices Hold Firm as Tight Slaughter and Strong Beef Values Support the Market

S cattle markets remain supported by tight slaughter levels, firm cash trade and stronger wholesale beef values, while rising cold-storage inventories and elevated speculative positioning provide important counterweights. Live cattle futures are maintaining a firm tone, with the nearby October contract around $218.88 per hundredweight, while December is near $222.15 and February around $224.30. Feeder cattle are also showing strength, with October near $334.93 and November around $331.98. The underlying supply picture remains tight. Federally inspected cattle slaughter is estimated at just 484,000 head, substantially below both the previous week and the comparable period last year. At the same time, Choice boxed beef values have risen sharply, indicating strong wholesale demand despite increasing beef stocks. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market PictureOctober Live CattleAround $218.88/cwtDecember Live CattleAround $222.15/cwtFebruary Live CattleAround $224.30/cwtOctober Feeder CattleAround $334.93/cwtNovember Feeder CattleAround $331.98/cwtCME Feeder Cattle Index$338.79Cash Cattle$345–350 dressed; $222–223 liveAugust Beef Stocks407.12 million lbsBeef Stocks YoYUp 5.16%Estimated Weekly Slaughter484,000 headLive Cattle Managed MoneyNet long 41,743 contractsFeeder Managed MoneyNet long 6,909 contractsKey Bullish FactorTight slaughter and stronger boxed beef valuesKey Bearish FactorRising beef inventories and elevated long positioning Current Cattle Price Action Live cattle prices are holding firm as the market continues to price a combination of restricted slaughter, limited cattle availability and strong beef values. December live cattle are around $222.15, while February is near $224.30. The nearby October contract is around $218.88, having retained a substantial weekly gain despite modest short-term pressure. Feeder cattle are showing even stronger momentum. October feeders are near $334.93, while November is around $331.98 and January near $324.35. The strength across the feeder complex suggests that demand for replacement cattle remains firm despite elevated prices. Cash Cattle Remains Firm Cash trade is being reported around $345–350 dressed in the North, with live sales around $222–223. The cash market remains an important source of support because it provides evidence that futures strength is being reinforced by physical cattle values. If cash prices continue to hold at elevated levels, futures are likely to remain sensitive to expectations for cattle availability and packer demand. Slaughter Levels Remain Historically Tight USDA estimates federally inspected cattle slaughter at approximately 484,000 head, including Saturday. That is around 45,000 head below the previous week and approximately 74,540 head below the comparable week last year. The reduction in slaughter is significant because fewer cattle moving through packing facilities can tighten beef availability even when consumer demand remains relatively stable. The market will therefore be watching whether slaughter rates recover or whether continued disruptions constrain beef production further. Packing Plant Disruptions Add Supply Uncertainty Disruptions at several Kansas packing plants following immigration enforcement activity have added another variable to the short-term cattle supply chain. Reduced plant throughput can affect both slaughter volumes and the timing of cattle movements between producers and processors. If disruptions persist, the market could face additional short-term constraints on beef production. If plants return to more normal operating levels, some of the recent supply pressure could ease. Boxed Beef Values Strengthen Wholesale beef prices are providing an important bullish signal. Choice boxed beef is around $378.83, up approximately $2.71, while Select is near $355.76, up approximately $3.66. The increase indicates that wholesale beef demand remains strong enough to absorb higher prices despite concerns about inventories. This relationship between cash cattle and boxed beef will remain critical. Sustained wholesale strength can support packer margins and reinforce demand for slaughter cattle. Beef Inventories Are Rising August 31 beef stocks reached approximately 407.12 million pounds, representing a 5.16% increase from a year earlier. Inventories were also around 2.22% above the revised July total, with the July figure revised higher by approximately 15.5 million pounds. The increase is an important bearish consideration because growing inventories indicate that beef availability is not uniformly tight across the supply chain. The market therefore needs to distinguish between tight cattle supplies and the broader availability of finished beef. Speculative Positioning Remains Elevated Managed money increased its live cattle net-long position by approximately 1,721 contracts, taking the total to 41,743 contracts. In feeder cattle, speculative traders increased their net long by another 208 contracts, taking the position to 6,909 contracts. The continued net-long positioning reflects bullish participation, but it also means the market could become vulnerable to liquidation if cash prices weaken, beef values retreat or slaughter rates recover. Bullish Sentiment 1. Cattle Slaughter Remains Well Below Last Year Estimated weekly slaughter of 484,000 head is more than 74,000 head below the comparable period last year, reinforcing concerns over tight beef production. 2. Cash Cattle Prices Remain Firm Cash trade around $345–350 dressed and $222–223 live provides physical-market support for futures. 3. Choice and Select Beef Values Are Rising Choice boxed beef near $378.83 and Select around $355.76 show strong wholesale values despite higher inventories. 4. Feeder Cattle Continue to Attract Buying Strong feeder cattle futures indicate continued demand for replacement cattle and confidence in forward cattle values. Bearish Sentiment 1. Beef Inventories Are Higher August stocks are up more than 5% from a year earlier, indicating that available beef supplies remain substantial. 2. Slaughter Disruptions May Eventually Reverse If packing plants return to normal operating levels, the current reduction in slaughter could prove temporary. 3. Speculative Longs Increase Liquidation Risk Managed money remains significantly net long in both live cattle and feeders, creating potential selling pressure if fundamentals deteriorate. 4. High Beef Prices Could Challenge Consumer Demand Sustained increases in wholesale beef prices may eventually pressure retail demand, particularly if consumers shift toward lower-cost proteins. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The cattle market is entering the coming sessions with a fundamentally mixed but highly sensitive setup. The most important bullish combination is tight slaughter, firm cash cattle and stronger boxed beef values. If these conditions persist, the market could continue to attract buying interest. The main downside risk comes from the possibility that slaughter recovers while beef inventories remain elevated. A reversal in wholesale values could also weaken packer demand for cattle. Speculative positioning will add another layer of volatility. With managed money already holding substantial long positions, any change in the fundamental narrative could produce sharper futures movements. Supply Outlook The near-term cattle supply picture remains tight. Slaughter is running substantially below last year's level, while packing-plant disruptions have introduced additional uncertainty around processing capacity. The market will be watching feedlot marketing rates, packer throughput and cash trade to determine whether the current tightness persists into the next marketing period. Demand Outlook Wholesale demand remains supportive, with both Choice and Select boxed beef prices moving higher. However, elevated beef prices could eventually test consumer demand. The key question is whether strong wholesale values can persist without creating enough demand destruction to pressure cattle prices. Feeder cattle demand also remains firm, suggesting that buyers continue to place value on available cattle despite high replacement costs. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cattle traders will be watching cash trade, slaughter numbers, boxed beef values, packing-plant activity, beef inventories and managed-money positioning. The immediate market balance remains heavily influenced by restricted slaughter and strong wholesale beef values. If those conditions continue, cattle prices can remain supported. However, rising beef inventories and the possibility of recovering slaughter capacity mean the market is not without downside risk. The coming sessions will therefore focus on whether physical cattle tightness continues to translate into sustained strength across both live and feeder cattle futures. Currency Hedger View Cattle markets are also influenced by currency movements because the US beef industry operates within a global agricultural trade system. Changes in the US dollar can affect the competitiveness of US beef exports, while currency movements in major importing markets influence purchasing power. Energy prices, feed costs and interest rates can also affect producer margins and livestock economics. For livestock producers, exporters, importers and businesses exposed to international payments, understanding the relationship between commodity prices, currencies, interest rates and global trade can help provide a broader view of financial exposure. Currency Hedger provides international currency exchange, cross-border payments and market-focused FX services for businesses and individuals managing international currency requirements. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets The cattle market remains supported by a combination of tight slaughter, firm cash cattle and strong wholesale beef values. The major question is whether these factors can continue to outweigh the increase in beef inventories. Current slaughter levels are unusually low compared with last year, while boxed beef values indicate that wholesale demand remains capable of supporting higher prices. At the same time, substantial speculative long positions mean the market could react sharply if slaughter recovers or beef values weaken. For the coming sessions, the key signals will be the relationship between cash cattle, packer activity, boxed beef demand and slaughter volumes. The physical market will remain particularly important in determining whether current futures strength can be sustained. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 26, 2026

Soybeans Hold Firm as Strong Export Demand and US-China Trade Hopes Support Prices

Soybean prices are holding firm as exceptionally strong US export commitments and renewed expectations for clarity on US-China trade discussions offset pressure from broader weather concerns and mixed movement across the soybean complex. November soybeans are trading around $13.19 per bushel, with the national average cash price near $12.62½. November has gained approximately 15½ cents over the week, while January soybeans are around $13.32½ and March near $13.39½. The demand picture remains considerably stronger than in several other agricultural markets. US soybean commitments have reached 21.2 million metric tons, almost double the level seen during the same period last year and comfortably ahead of the normal seasonal pace. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market PictureNovember SoybeansAround $13.19/bushelNational Cash SoybeansAround $12.62½/bushelJanuary 2027 SoybeansAround $13.32½/bushelMarch 2027 SoybeansAround $13.39½/bushelWeekly November GainApproximately 15½ centsUS Soybean Commitments21.2 MMTYear-on-Year ChangeUp approximately 94%USDA Projection Progress46%Five-Year Average Pace38%Managed Money Net Long265,041 contractsSoymeal Managed MoneyRecord net long of 192,368 contractsKey Bullish FactorExceptionally strong export commitmentsKey Bearish FactorWeather risk and uncertainty around trade policy Current Soybean Price Action Soybeans are showing considerably more resilience than the market's recent price action might suggest. November futures are around $13.19, while January is near $13.32½ and March around $13.39½. November has gained approximately 15½ cents over the week, indicating that buyers remain active despite uncertainty surrounding US-China trade policy. The market also benefited from reports that additional details from recent US-China discussions could be released, reducing some of the selling pressure and giving traders a reason to maintain exposure. The strength of the underlying demand data is an important factor supporting prices. US-China Trade Remains a Major Catalyst The soybean market remains highly sensitive to developments in US-China agricultural trade. Only limited information has emerged from recent discussions between US and Chinese leaders, leaving traders waiting for greater clarity on the potential implications for agricultural commodities. Reports indicate that further details could be released shortly. For soybeans, the stakes are particularly significant because China represents a major source of global demand. Any indication of increased US soybean purchases could reinforce the already strong export-demand narrative. Conversely, continued uncertainty could encourage Chinese buyers to diversify sourcing and limit the immediate benefit to US exporters. Export Demand Is Providing Strong Fundamental Support US soybean export commitments have reached approximately 21.2 MMT, an extraordinary 94% increase from the comparable period last year. Commitments represent approximately 46% of the USDA forecast, compared with a five-year average of around 38% at this point in the marketing cycle. This is one of the strongest fundamental signals currently supporting the soybean market. Unlike corn and wheat, where export commitments are trailing historical benchmarks, soybean sales are running substantially ahead of the normal seasonal pace. The market will now be watching whether this exceptional demand can continue as the US harvest progresses. Weather Could Influence Harvest and Supply Expectations Heavy rainfall remains in the forecast across parts of the US. Forecasts indicate approximately 1 to 4 inches of rain from Texas toward the Great Lakes and from Nebraska toward Indiana, with lower totals expected in Ohio and areas east of the Ohio River. Additional moisture can support soil conditions, but excessive rainfall during the harvest period could slow fieldwork and transportation. The immediate market question is therefore whether rainfall creates meaningful harvest disruption or simply provides additional moisture without materially affecting production. Managed Money Increases Its Soybean Exposure Speculative positioning has become another supportive factor. Managed money increased its net-long soybean position by approximately 20,331 contracts, taking the total net long to 265,041 contracts. Soymeal positioning is even more notable, with speculators holding a record net-long position of approximately 192,368 contracts. Strong speculative participation can reinforce price momentum when fundamental news remains supportive, although a heavily positioned market can also become vulnerable to liquidation if expectations change. Soymeal and Soybean Oil Add Complexity The soybean complex is showing divergent signals. Soymeal futures have experienced significant strength over the week, with October soymeal gaining approximately $19.30, despite mixed daily movement. Soybean oil has been more subdued, with prices moving modestly while the October contract has weakened over the week. The differing performance of meal and oil reflects changing expectations around feed demand, vegetable-oil markets and processing margins. Bullish Sentiment 1. US Export Demand Is Exceptionally Strong Commitments of 21.2 MMT are 94% above last year's level and substantially ahead of the normal seasonal pace. 2. US-China Trade Clarity Could Provide Another Catalyst Any evidence of stronger Chinese demand for US soybeans could reinforce an already strong export picture. 3. Managed Money Continues to Build Long Exposure The net-long position has increased to 265,041 contracts, showing significant speculative participation on the bullish side. 4. Soymeal Positioning Is at a Record Managed money's record 192,368-contract net-long position reflects particularly strong speculative interest in the meal component of the soybean complex. Bearish Sentiment 1. Heavy Rain Could Delay Harvest Substantial rainfall across parts of the US could interfere with harvest progress and create short-term logistical complications. 2. Trade Details Remain Unclear The soybean market is responding to expectations of additional US-China trade information, but until concrete details emerge, the demand outlook remains exposed to policy uncertainty. 3. Large Speculative Longs Increase Liquidation Risk With managed money holding a substantial net-long position, a deterioration in fundamental sentiment could generate additional selling as traders reduce exposure. 4. Strong Sales May Already Be Reflected in Prices The exceptionally strong export numbers have become a major source of market support. Traders will increasingly require evidence that this demand can continue rather than simply relying on the current sales backlog. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Soybeans enter the coming sessions with a stronger fundamental foundation than many competing agricultural markets. The most important catalyst is likely to be US-China trade clarity. Confirmation of stronger Chinese demand would reinforce already exceptional US export commitments and could provide additional upside momentum. Weather will remain another important variable. Heavy rainfall could slow harvest activity, while a smoother harvest would allow the market to focus more directly on the strength of export demand. The biggest risk to the current bullish structure is a reversal in trade expectations combined with liquidation from the substantial managed-money long position. Supply Outlook US soybean supply is entering the critical harvest period. Rainfall across parts of the growing region could slow fieldwork, although the longer-term supply picture will depend primarily on harvested acreage and final yields. If harvest proceeds normally, the market will increasingly shift its attention from production uncertainty toward the pace at which the substantial US crop is absorbed by domestic processors and international buyers. Demand Outlook Demand is currently the strongest part of the soybean story. Commitments of 21.2 MMT, representing 46% of the USDA forecast compared with a five-year average of 38%, indicate that international buyers are already purchasing US soybeans at an unusually strong pace. The key question is whether this momentum can continue through the marketing year, particularly if Chinese buying remains strong. Soymeal demand and processing economics will also remain important because they influence the profitability of crushing soybeans and therefore the underlying demand for the raw commodity. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Soybean traders will be watching US-China trade announcements, export sales, harvest progress, weather conditions and managed-money positioning. The market currently has a strong demand foundation, with export commitments running far ahead of both last year's level and the five-year average pace. The next major test will be whether trade developments confirm that strong demand can continue while US harvest activity accelerates. Currency Hedger View Soybeans demonstrate how closely agricultural commodities are connected to currency markets and international trade. The US dollar and Chinese yuan are particularly important to the global soybean trade. Changes in exchange rates can influence the cost of US soybeans for overseas buyers, while trade policy can rapidly change purchasing patterns between major producing and importing countries. For agricultural businesses, exporters and importers, understanding the interaction between commodity prices, currencies, trade policy, interest rates and geopolitics can be an important part of managing international financial exposure. Currency Hedger provides international currency exchange, cross-border payments and market-focused FX services while helping clients understand the wider forces driving currency markets. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Soybeans currently have a notable fundamental advantage through exceptionally strong US export demand. Commitments are running 94% above last year's level and well ahead of the five-year seasonal pace, while speculative positioning has also moved further toward the long side. This gives the market a stronger underlying demand structure than is currently visible in several other US agricultural commodities. The major variable is now US-China trade policy. If forthcoming details confirm stronger agricultural trade, the demand narrative could strengthen further. If expectations fail to materialize, the substantial speculative long position could become an important source of volatility. For the coming sessions, the combination of trade developments, export demand, harvest weather and speculative positioning should determine whether soybeans can extend their recent gains or enter a period of consolidation. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 26, 2026

Wheat Prices Face Pressure as Export Demand Lags and Weather Improves Soil Moisture

Wheat prices remain under pressure across the major US contracts as weak export demand, growing speculative short exposure and improving soil moisture compete with geopolitical risks surrounding Black Sea shipments. December Chicago SRW wheat is trading around $7.03¼ per bushel, while December KC HRW is near $7.62 and December Minneapolis spring wheat around $7.14½. The broader complex remains vulnerable after substantial weekly declines, particularly in Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat. At the same time, discussions involving Turkey, Egypt, India and other Middle Eastern countries are focused on Black Sea security and the possibility of maintaining safe grain shipments. No agreement has yet been established, while attacks on regional energy infrastructure continue to complicate the geopolitical environment. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market PictureDecember CBOT WheatAround $7.03¼/bushelDecember KC HRWAround $7.62/bushelDecember Minneapolis WheatAround $7.14½/bushelUS Wheat Export Commitments9.449 MMTYear-on-Year Export ChangeDown approximately 31%USDA Projection Progress45% vs. 54% average paceChicago Managed MoneyNet short 13,144 contractsKC Managed MoneyNet long 41,743 contractsKey Bullish FactorBlack Sea shipping and geopolitical riskKey Bearish FactorWeak US export demand and large global availability Current Wheat Price Action The wheat complex remains under selling pressure despite some buying emerging after early weakness. December Chicago SRW wheat is around $7.03¼, while December KC HRW is near $7.62 and Minneapolis spring wheat around $7.14½. The weekly performance remains particularly important. December Chicago wheat has declined approximately 11 cents over the week, while December KC HRW has fallen roughly 21¾ cents and December Minneapolis wheat approximately 27¾ cents. The magnitude of the weekly declines indicates that the market is still struggling to generate sustained buying interest despite several potential geopolitical and weather-related catalysts. US Export Demand Remains a Major Weakness US wheat export commitments currently stand at approximately 9.449 million metric tons, around 31% below last year's level. Commitments represent approximately 45% of the USDA export projection, compared with an average sales pace of around 54%. This gap remains one of the most important bearish factors facing wheat. The market will need stronger export activity to close the gap as the season progresses. Without an improvement in foreign demand, ample global availability could continue to limit the upside. Black Sea Shipping Remains a Geopolitical Catalyst Turkey, Egypt, India and other countries in the region are involved in discussions surrounding Black Sea security and safe grain shipments. No formal arrangement has yet been established. For wheat markets, any agreement that improves the reliability of Black Sea exports could reinforce competition for global buyers and place additional pressure on US wheat prices. However, continued attacks on energy infrastructure highlight the wider geopolitical risks surrounding the region. A deterioration in security could disrupt transportation, raise insurance and freight costs and increase uncertainty around the availability of Black Sea wheat. Speculative Positioning Signals Continued Pressure Speculative positioning is also leaning bearish in Chicago wheat. Managed money increased its net-short position by 8,968 contracts, taking the total net short to approximately 13,144 contracts. Kansas City wheat positioning remains different, with managed money holding a net long position of approximately 41,743 contracts after reducing the position by 4,015 contracts. The divergence between the two markets indicates that speculative traders are assessing different supply and demand dynamics across wheat classes. A further increase in Chicago short positioning could add selling pressure, although a shift in market sentiment could also create short-covering potential. Rainfall Improves Soil Moisture but Slows Planting The next seven days are expected to bring approximately 2 to 4 inches of rainfall from the Texas Panhandle toward Nebraska. The additional moisture is important for areas experiencing dry conditions and could improve soil moisture ahead of the winter wheat growing season. However, excessive rainfall could slow planting progress. The market therefore faces a mixed weather signal: improved moisture conditions are fundamentally supportive for crop establishment, while delays to planting could create localized concerns if wet conditions persist. Bullish Sentiment 1. Black Sea Shipping Risk Remains Uncertainty surrounding safe Black Sea grain shipments could increase the risk premium in wheat if transportation becomes disrupted. 2. Geopolitical Risk Could Return to the Foreground Continued attacks on energy infrastructure indicate that regional geopolitical risks remain unresolved and could spill over into agricultural transportation and supply chains. 3. Dry Areas Are Receiving Important Moisture Rainfall across the Southern Plains could improve soil moisture conditions and support winter wheat establishment. 4. Large Chicago Short Position Creates Short-Covering Potential Managed money is now net short Chicago wheat by more than 13,000 contracts. Any bullish catalyst could encourage traders to reduce short exposure, potentially accelerating a price recovery. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Export Commitments Remain Weak US wheat commitments are approximately 31% below last year's pace, showing that international demand remains insufficient to provide strong support. 2. Sales Are Behind the Normal Seasonal Pace Only 45% of the USDA export projection has been committed compared with a 54% historical average pace. 3. Black Sea Competition Remains Significant If safe-shipping arrangements improve, Russian and other Black Sea exporters could maintain strong access to global buyers, increasing competition for US wheat. 4. Improving Soil Moisture Could Support Production Better moisture conditions across the Southern Plains could improve crop establishment and reduce immediate production concerns. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Wheat's next major move is likely to depend on the interaction between US export demand, Black Sea shipping conditions, speculative positioning and Southern Plains weather. A sustained recovery in export sales or deterioration in Black Sea shipping conditions could provide the catalyst for a rebound. Stronger international demand would be particularly important because the current US sales pace remains well below its historical benchmark. Conversely, continued weak exports combined with improving Black Sea availability could keep pressure on prices. The large Chicago speculative short position is another factor to monitor. If geopolitical or supply concerns intensify, short covering could amplify an otherwise modest price recovery. Supply Outlook US wheat supply conditions are mixed. Additional rainfall across the Southern Plains is improving soil moisture in some areas, potentially supporting winter wheat establishment. However, excessive precipitation could slow planting progress. Globally, competition from Black Sea exporters remains a major consideration. Any improvement in safe-shipping arrangements could keep global wheat availability relatively comfortable, while renewed disruption would tighten the supply outlook. Demand Outlook Demand remains the principal challenge for US wheat. With commitments of 9.449 MMT, the US is behind both last year's pace and the historical seasonal average. The market therefore needs stronger international purchasing activity to improve the demand outlook. Egypt, Turkey, India and other major importing markets will remain important to monitor, particularly as they assess the reliability and cost of Black Sea supplies. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Wheat traders will be watching Black Sea shipping negotiations, US export sales, Southern Plains rainfall, planting progress and managed-money positioning. The market currently has a combination of weak export demand and improving soil moisture weighing on prices, while geopolitical risks provide a potential source of upside volatility. The most important question is whether international demand begins to accelerate enough to absorb the current US export deficit. If not, continued competition from the Black Sea region could keep the pressure on US wheat prices. Currency Hedger View Wheat is a globally traded commodity, making currency movements an important component of international agricultural demand. The US dollar, Russian ruble, Turkish lira, Egyptian pound and currencies across major importing economies can influence the relative cost of wheat in international markets. A stronger dollar can make US wheat less competitive, while currency weakness in importing countries can increase the local cost of agricultural commodities. Geopolitical developments can simultaneously affect both wheat and currencies through energy prices, inflation, interest-rate expectations and trade flows. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals understand and manage international currency exposure while monitoring the wider market forces that can influence exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Wheat remains caught between weak US export demand and significant geopolitical uncertainty around Black Sea supply routes. The current export-sales deficit is a clear fundamental constraint, while improving soil moisture across parts of the Southern Plains could support the next winter wheat crop. At the same time, unresolved Black Sea shipping risks mean the market still has the potential for sudden volatility. For the coming sessions, traders are likely to focus on whether export demand improves, whether Black Sea shipping discussions produce a workable framework and whether Southern Plains rainfall becomes supportive or begins to interfere with planting progress. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 26, 2026

Corn Prices Hold Firm as Weather Risk and Export Demand Shape the Outlook

Corn prices are holding relatively firm after recovering from early pressure, with the market balancing improving price action against concerns over US export demand, heavy rainfall and uncertainty surrounding US-China trade discussions. December corn is around $5.28¼ per bushel, while the national average cash price is near $4.84. The market has shown resilience despite a slower export-sales pace and continued uncertainty over the timing and substance of further US-China trade announcements. Weather is now becoming an increasingly important short-term driver, with forecasts calling for substantial rainfall across parts of the central and eastern US. While additional moisture can benefit some areas, excessive rainfall could complicate fieldwork and harvest progress. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market PictureDecember CornAround $5.28¼/bushelNational Cash CornAround $4.84/bushelMarch 2027 CornAround $5.42/bushelMay 2027 CornAround $5.48¾/bushelWeekly Price ActionDecember contract marginally higherUS Export Commitments18.238 MMTExport Commitments vs. Year AgoDown approximately 29%USDA Sales Pace22% of projection vs. 29% averageManaged Money Net Long414,437 contractsKey Bullish FactorWeather-related harvest and fieldwork risksKey Bearish FactorSlower export commitments and large US supply Current Corn Price Action Corn is showing underlying resilience as prices recover from early-session weakness and remain above recent support levels. December corn is trading around $5.28¼, while March corn is near $5.42 and May corn around $5.48¾. The relatively narrow gains across the forward contracts indicate that traders are not yet aggressively pricing a major supply disruption, but neither are they willing to push prices sharply lower while weather and trade uncertainty remain unresolved. The market is therefore entering a period where weather developments, export demand and harvest progress could produce increasingly important price signals. US Weather Becomes a Key Market Driver Heavy rainfall remains in the forecast across substantial areas of the US corn belt. Forecasts are calling for approximately 1 to 4 inches of rain extending from Texas toward the Great Lakes and from Nebraska toward Indiana. Ohio and areas east of the Ohio River are expected to receive comparatively lower totals. The impact will depend heavily on timing and location. Moderate rainfall can support soil moisture and late-season crop conditions, but excessive precipitation during the harvest window can slow fieldwork, create logistical difficulties and potentially delay the movement of corn into storage and transportation channels. This makes the next several weather updates particularly important for price discovery. US-China Trade Uncertainty Remains in Focus The market continues to wait for greater clarity surrounding recent discussions between US and Chinese leaders. Limited information has emerged regarding the details of the talks, while expectations remain that further information could clarify the direction of agricultural trade policy. For corn, China remains an important potential demand source. Any improvement in trade relations could strengthen expectations for US agricultural exports, while continued uncertainty could encourage buyers to maintain diversified sourcing strategies. The absence of clear details means the trade relationship remains a significant market catalyst rather than a confirmed source of additional demand. Export Demand Remains a Concern US corn export commitments have reached approximately 18.238 million metric tons, but the pace remains behind historical levels. Current commitments are approximately 29% below the comparable year-ago level and represent around 22% of the USDA projection, compared with an average sales pace of approximately 29%. This creates an important bearish consideration. For prices to sustain a stronger upward trend, the market will likely need evidence that export demand can accelerate as the marketing year develops. Stronger sales to major importers could quickly change the demand narrative, particularly if trade negotiations improve. Managed Money Positioning Managed money remains significantly net long corn futures and options, with a net position of approximately 414,437 contracts. The latest positioning data also shows that managed money reduced its net-long exposure by 12,405 contracts. The large net-long position provides evidence that speculative traders continue to maintain substantial exposure to corn, but reductions in that position could create additional selling pressure if weather or export fundamentals deteriorate. Conversely, renewed buying could amplify price gains if the market receives bullish weather or trade news. Bullish Sentiment 1. Excessive Rainfall Could Disrupt Harvest Progress Heavy precipitation across parts of the Corn Belt could delay fieldwork and create short-term logistical challenges during the harvest period. 2. US-China Trade Progress Could Improve Demand Expectations Greater clarity around trade negotiations could improve expectations for US agricultural exports and provide additional support to corn. 3. Prices Are Showing Resilience Corn has been able to recover from early pressure, suggesting that buyers remain active near current levels. 4. Large Speculative Long Position Provides Underlying Support Managed money remains substantially net long, indicating that speculative participation continues to provide a significant source of market liquidity and potential buying interest. Bearish Sentiment 1. Export Commitments Remain Behind Historical Levels Total commitments of 18.238 MMT are approximately 29% below last year's pace, highlighting weaker export demand. 2. Sales Are Behind the Normal USDA Pace Commitments represent approximately 22% of the USDA projection compared with a 29% average sales pace, leaving the market dependent on stronger future demand. 3. Large Speculative Longs Create Downside Risk If fundamentals deteriorate, the substantial managed-money net-long position could become a source of liquidation pressure. 4. Heavy Rain Does Not Necessarily Mean a Smaller Crop Rainfall can delay harvest without materially reducing production, particularly where soil moisture and crop conditions remain adequate. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Corn's next major directional move is likely to depend on whether weather risks translate into genuine harvest disruption and whether export demand begins to improve. A combination of persistent rainfall, delayed harvest activity and stronger US-China agricultural trade prospects could support prices and encourage additional speculative buying. Conversely, if weather conditions allow harvest to progress normally while export demand remains below historical levels, the market could face renewed pressure. The key question is whether weather and trade developments can overcome the current export-demand deficit. Supply Outlook US corn supply remains the dominant fundamental consideration as harvest activity develops. Heavy rainfall could slow the movement of the crop from fields to elevators and storage facilities, but the longer-term supply outlook will depend on actual yields and harvested acreage rather than rainfall alone. A smooth harvest would reinforce expectations of ample availability, while significant delays or crop-quality concerns could tighten nearby market conditions. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed. Domestic feed and ethanol demand provide an underlying consumption base, but export demand is currently the area requiring closer attention. With commitments trailing both last year's level and the historical pace, stronger international buying would be important for improving the demand balance. Developments in US-China trade relations could therefore become increasingly important as the marketing year progresses. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Corn traders will be watching US weather, harvest progress, US-China trade developments, export sales and managed-money positioning. The market has demonstrated resilience around current levels, but the fundamental picture remains mixed. Weather provides a potential source of short-term support, while slower export commitments remain a significant constraint. The next sustained move is likely to depend on whether weather concerns become substantial enough to affect harvest expectations or whether improving trade and export demand provide a new source of buying interest. Currency Hedger View Corn prices are closely connected to currency markets through the global agricultural trade cycle. Changes in the US dollar can influence the competitiveness of US corn exports, while movements in currencies across major importing countries can affect purchasing power and international demand. Trade policy can add another layer of currency and commodity volatility. For agricultural businesses, importers, exporters and companies exposed to international payments, monitoring the relationship between commodity prices, currencies, interest rates and geopolitical developments can be an important part of managing financial exposure. Currency Hedger provides international currency exchange, cross-border payments and market-focused FX services designed to help businesses and individuals understand and manage their currency requirements. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Corn is currently caught between weather-related uncertainty and a softer export-demand backdrop. The heavy rainfall forecasts create a potential short-term catalyst as traders assess the impact on harvest progress, while the relatively slow pace of US export commitments continues to limit the strength of the underlying demand story. US-China trade developments could become particularly important. Greater clarity and improved agricultural trade flows would provide a potential demand catalyst, while continued uncertainty would leave the market more dependent on weather and domestic fundamentals. For the coming sessions, the focus remains on whether weather disruption and potential trade improvements can generate enough fresh demand to overcome the current export-sales deficit. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 26, 2026

Navigating Oil Price Volatility as US-Iran Talks Raise Hopes for Supply Relief

Crude oil is trading near $92 a barrel as markets weigh renewed hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations against continued uncertainty surrounding the war, Strait of Hormuz flows and global energy supply. Iran has called for a return to an interim peace framework, raising the possibility of a phased agreement that could eventually restore more normal energy flows through one of the world's most important oil transit routes. The market is therefore balancing two opposing forces. The prospect of diplomatic progress is easing some of the extreme supply-risk premium built into crude prices, while the possibility of renewed conflict or a breakdown in negotiations continues to limit the downside. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market PictureCrude Oil PriceAround $92 per barrelWeekly PerformanceUS oil benchmark down approximately 7.4%Strait of Hormuz FlowsAround 33.7 million barrels this weekKey Bullish FactorRisk of renewed disruption to Middle East oil suppliesKey Bearish FactorPotential reopening of Hormuz and improved regional energy flowsPrimary Market DriverUS-Iran diplomacy and geopolitical riskAdditional RiskPotential restrictions on US diesel exports Current Oil Price Action Oil remains highly volatile as traders attempt to price the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough alongside evidence that physical energy flows are beginning to recover. Crude is now around $92, well below the recent highs reached during the escalation in Middle East tensions. The approximately 7.4% weekly decline in the US benchmark highlights how quickly the market's risk premium can unwind when traders see evidence that supply disruptions may become less severe. However, the decline has not eliminated geopolitical risk. Instead, the market is increasingly focused on whether diplomatic developments can translate into sustained improvements in physical supply. US-Iran Talks Become a Major Market Catalyst Iran has proposed returning to an interim framework similar to the memorandum of understanding reached with the United States in June. Under the latest proposal, Iran indicated that it could support reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear discussions within seven days if Washington accepts several conditions, including the lifting of the naval blockade, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and an end to the war across the relevant fronts. For oil markets, the significance is immediate. A credible diplomatic process could reduce expectations of prolonged disruption and encourage further recovery in crude transportation through the region. Conversely, a breakdown in negotiations could quickly restore the geopolitical premium currently being removed from prices. Strait of Hormuz Flows Remain Critical Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reached approximately 33.7 million barrels this week, placing exports broadly on track with the previous week's levels. This is an important development because Hormuz remains one of the world's critical energy chokepoints. Any sustained improvement in shipping activity could reduce concerns over global supply availability and put additional pressure on crude prices. The market will therefore be watching whether current flows represent the beginning of a sustained recovery or simply a temporary improvement during a period of diplomatic uncertainty. Middle East Supply Risk Still Dominates The recent decline in crude prices does not mean the underlying supply risk has disappeared. Any deterioration in US-Iran relations, renewed military escalation or disruption to shipping could quickly change the market's balance. With crude recently trading at substantially higher levels during periods of acute supply concern, traders remain sensitive to developments around the region. The result is a market with considerable two-way risk rather than a straightforward directional trend. US Diesel Export Restrictions Add Another Layer of Uncertainty Oil markets are also monitoring speculation surrounding potential restrictions on US diesel exports. Any meaningful restriction could tighten domestic refined-product availability while altering international diesel trade flows. Depending on its scope and duration, such a policy could influence refinery economics, crude demand and regional product prices. This creates another potential source of volatility at a time when geopolitical developments are already driving significant price movements. Bullish Sentiment 1. Geopolitical Risk Could Escalate Again A breakdown in US-Iran negotiations or renewed military activity could rapidly restore the risk premium in crude. 2. Hormuz Remains a Critical Chokepoint Any renewed disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could materially tighten global oil availability and provide support to prices. 3. Supply Recovery Is Not Yet Guaranteed Although flows are improving, the market still needs evidence that transportation and exports can remain stable under a sustained diplomatic framework. 4. Diesel Market Risks Could Support Energy Prices Potential restrictions on US diesel exports could tighten refined-product markets and provide additional support to the broader energy complex. Bearish Sentiment 1. Diplomatic Progress Could Remove the Geopolitical Premium A credible US-Iran agreement could significantly reduce concerns about prolonged supply disruption and encourage further selling in crude. 2. Hormuz Flows Are Showing Signs of Recovery Flows of approximately 33.7 million barrels suggest that physical supply conditions are improving relative to the most disruptive phase of the crisis. 3. Weekly Price Momentum Remains Negative The US oil benchmark is down around 7.4% over the week, demonstrating that bearish momentum remains significant despite the latest geopolitical uncertainty. 4. Improved Regional Supply Could Increase Downside Pressure If negotiations progress and energy transportation normalizes, traders could increasingly focus on underlying supply and demand fundamentals rather than geopolitical risk. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate oil outlook is likely to remain highly dependent on the direction of US-Iran negotiations. A credible diplomatic breakthrough combined with sustained Hormuz flows could encourage crude to move lower as the geopolitical premium continues to unwind. The market could increasingly shift its focus toward inventories, refinery demand and broader economic conditions. A breakdown in negotiations or renewed disruption would create the opposite dynamic, potentially bringing geopolitical risk back into the price rapidly. The key issue is therefore not simply whether oil is currently near $92, but whether the market can establish that the recent improvement in energy flows is sustainable. Supply Outlook Near-term supply conditions are improving as oil flows through Hormuz remain close to the previous week's levels. The next stage will depend heavily on whether diplomatic developments allow transportation and exports to normalize further. A sustained reopening of regional supply channels would reduce the immediate scarcity premium, while renewed disruption would quickly tighten the outlook. Demand Outlook Global oil demand remains exposed to the broader economic environment, but the immediate market focus is geopolitical rather than purely demand-driven. Lower crude prices could provide some relief to consumers and energy-intensive businesses, while a renewed oil-price surge would increase inflationary pressure and potentially influence central-bank policy expectations. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Oil is likely to remain highly sensitive to headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz and regional shipping flows. Traders will also monitor whether current oil transportation volumes remain stable and whether speculation surrounding US diesel exports develops into concrete policy. The central question for the coming sessions is whether diplomacy can produce a sustained improvement in physical energy flows. If it can, the recent decline in crude could extend. If negotiations deteriorate, the geopolitical risk premium could return rapidly. Currency Hedger View Oil volatility has important implications for currency markets because changes in energy prices can influence inflation, interest-rate expectations, trade balances and the value of commodity-linked currencies. A sustained decline in crude could reduce inflationary pressure for oil-importing economies and potentially alter expectations for future central-bank policy. Conversely, renewed disruption around Hormuz could push energy prices higher, strengthening inflation concerns and increasing pressure on interest rates. For businesses making international payments, importing energy, purchasing commodities or managing foreign-currency exposure, understanding the relationship between geopolitics, oil prices, interest rates and currencies can be critical. Currency Hedger helps businesses and individuals manage international currency requirements while providing a broader perspective on the market forces that can affect exchange rates. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Oil is entering a particularly sensitive phase where diplomacy and physical supply are moving in the same direction, but neither has yet provided enough certainty to remove geopolitical risk from the market. The improvement in Hormuz flows is important, but the sustainability of that recovery will depend heavily on the progress of US-Iran negotiations. For traders, the coming sessions are therefore likely to remain headline-driven, with the potential for substantial two-way price movements as the market reassesses the probability of a lasting improvement in regional energy flows. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Navigating Man-Made Market Volatility

Financial markets remain caught between competing narratives, with investors struggling to establish a clear direction across commodities, bonds, currencies and equities. Brent crude has moved sharply between $106 and below $100 per barrel, while sovereign bond yields continue to experience unusually large swings. The central issue is uncertainty. Markets are trying to determine whether the conflict involving Iran is escalating or moving toward resolution, whether enough oil is continuing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and how persistent attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure could affect global energy supplies. At the same time, investors are questioning whether the recent surge in government bond yields represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a more prolonged repricing of sovereign debt. With these questions unresolved, volatility is likely to remain elevated, particularly across the commodity and bond markets. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalBrent CrudeBelow $100 after reaching $106US 2-Year YieldAround 20 bps higher this weekUK 2-Year YieldAround 14 bps higher this weekUS 10-Year YieldAround 5.13%France 10-Year YieldAround 4.68%UK 10-Year YieldAround 5.34%Average Global Bond YieldNear 4%, highest since 2007US DollarFirming alongside Treasury yieldsEquity MarketsRecent weakness remains relatively moderateKey DriversInflation, deficits, oil, geopolitics and central-bank policy Current Market Price Action Markets are attempting to stabilise after several sessions of sharp moves, but there is still no dominant directional theme. Bond yields continue to move aggressively in both directions, while Brent crude has experienced similarly rapid swings. The oil market's move from $106 to below $100 highlights how quickly positioning can change when traders receive conflicting signals about supply and geopolitical risk. Foreign exchange markets have been comparatively calmer, although the US dollar continues to attract demand. Equity markets have also experienced some recent pressure, but the scale of the moves remains relatively contained compared with the volatility seen in bonds and commodities. Why Market Sentiment Is Becoming More Cautious The lack of a clear macroeconomic narrative is itself becoming a source of volatility. Investors are simultaneously assessing: Whether the Iran conflict is escalating or moving toward a resolution. Whether oil supplies are moving normally through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure will reduce refined-product availability. Whether inflation will remain elevated. Whether central banks will need to maintain or increase interest rates. Whether government borrowing requirements can remain sustainable. Until these questions become clearer, markets may continue to move sharply between competing scenarios rather than establish a persistent trend. Bond Market Pressure Is Increasing One of the most important developments is the rise in global sovereign bond yields. US two-year yields have increased by around 20 basis points this week, while UK two-year yields have risen approximately 14 basis points. Longer-dated US Treasury yields have also reached levels not seen for around two decades before subsequently retreating. The average global government bond yield is now close to 4%, highlighting how dramatically the interest-rate environment has changed from the low-yield period that dominated markets for much of the previous decade. Higher borrowing costs are increasingly important for governments, businesses and consumers, while elevated yields can also force policymakers to confront the relationship between fiscal spending, debt accumulation and inflation. What Bond Market Volatility Is Telling Us The scale of the moves in sovereign debt markets suggests that investors are going through an uncomfortable repricing of government bonds. Several factors are contributing to the adjustment. First, government debt loads and fiscal deficits remain elevated across many developed economies. Second, economic growth has proved more resilient than some investors expected. Third, inflation risks have increased as energy and refined-product prices remain elevated. The combination is particularly challenging for fixed-income markets because investors require greater compensation for holding long-duration government debt when inflation and fiscal risks remain uncertain. This helps explain why bond yields can continue rising even when there is no conventional economic crisis underway. Room for Further Upside in Bond Yields The fact that global sovereign yields have not yet clearly stabilised suggests that the repricing process may not be complete. US 10-year yields around 5.13%, French yields around 4.68% and UK yields around 5.34% demonstrate how elevated borrowing costs have become. Fiscal sustainability is also receiving greater attention. Continued government borrowing to finance spending and tax measures means bond markets have to absorb substantial additional debt supply. If inflation remains persistent at the same time, investors may demand still higher yields before becoming comfortable holding longer-dated government debt. A Different Type of Bond Market Sell-Off The current bond sell-off differs from the pattern normally associated with a severe economic crisis. Developed economies are still expanding, and recent purchasing managers' surveys indicate continued economic growth across several major economies, including the United States. If rising Treasury yields were purely a sign of an approaching US fiscal crisis, a broader deterioration across US assets might be expected. Instead, the US dollar remains firm, while US equities have remained relatively resilient. This suggests that the market may be pricing a combination of higher nominal growth, persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates, rather than simply anticipating an economic collapse. Why Inflation Remains Critical Energy prices remain central to the inflation outlook. The current inflation pressure extends beyond crude oil itself. Petrol and diesel prices have also risen sharply, creating a wider refined-product inflation problem. This matters because higher transportation and energy costs can feed into consumer prices and business costs even if crude prices subsequently stabilise. If inflation remains persistent, central banks could face pressure to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer or consider additional rate increases. That would provide another reason for sovereign bond yields to remain elevated. Oil and Bonds Remain Closely Connected The relationship between crude oil and government bonds has become increasingly important. A sustained decline in oil prices caused by improving Middle East conditions could reduce inflation expectations and ease some pressure on sovereign yields. However, if the conflict escalates and oil prices return toward $110, inflation expectations could increase again. Higher energy prices would then reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and potentially push bond yields higher. This creates a feedback loop between oil prices, inflation expectations, central-bank policy and government bond yields. Bullish Sentiment Improving geopolitical conditions: Any progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East could reduce energy-market risk and improve overall market confidence. Resilient economic growth: Continued expansion across major developed economies provides support for corporate earnings and risk assets. Dollar strength: The US dollar continues to benefit from higher Treasury yields and expectations for relatively restrictive US monetary policy. Potential policy stabilisation: Clearer fiscal or monetary-policy signals could reduce some of the uncertainty currently driving bond-market volatility. Room for risk assets to recover: If oil and bond yields stabilise without a significant deterioration in economic activity, equities could regain momentum. Bearish Sentiment Persistent inflation: Elevated refined-product prices could keep inflation pressures stronger for longer. Rising borrowing costs: Higher sovereign yields increase financing costs for governments, companies and consumers. Fiscal concerns: Large deficits and continued government borrowing could keep pressure on long-term bond markets. Geopolitical escalation: A deterioration in the Iran conflict or renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could push energy prices sharply higher. Bond-market instability: Continued large swings in government yields could eventually transmit greater volatility into equities, credit and foreign exchange. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus remains on whether the current volatility begins to settle or whether markets continue to move between sharply different scenarios. For oil, the key question is whether Brent can stabilise below $100 or whether renewed geopolitical concerns push prices back toward the recent $106 high. For bonds, traders will be watching whether US 10-year yields can remain around the 5% area or whether inflation and fiscal concerns generate another move higher. A meaningful improvement in Middle East conditions could reduce both oil and bond-market pressure. However, it would not necessarily return yields to their previous levels because structural inflation and fiscal concerns remain. Supply Outlook Energy supply remains one of the most important variables for the wider market. Improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz would reduce the immediate risk of a global oil shortage, while continued attacks on Russian refining infrastructure could maintain pressure on refined-product markets. The balance between these two developments will remain important for inflation expectations and therefore for government bond yields. Demand Outlook Demand across the broader economy remains relatively resilient, but higher energy costs and borrowing rates could eventually weigh on consumption and investment. For commodities, stronger economic activity provides support for underlying demand. For bonds, however, resilient growth can create a more difficult environment if it prevents inflation from falling quickly enough to justify lower interest rates. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The market remains driven by uncertainty rather than a single dominant trend. Oil prices, government bond yields and the US dollar are increasingly interconnected, with changes in one market influencing expectations in the others. The Trump-Xi summit could temporarily shift attention toward US-China relations and trade policy, potentially reducing the immediate focus on the Iran conflict. However, the underlying questions surrounding Middle East energy supplies, inflation and fiscal policy remain unresolved. The weekend could become particularly important if there are developments surrounding the Iran conflict. A meaningful de-escalation could reduce oil prices and ease some pressure on sovereign bonds, while renewed conflict or attacks on shipping could quickly reverse that move. For now, markets appear likely to remain volatile, headline-sensitive and highly responsive to changes in interest-rate and geopolitical expectations. Currency Hedger View For businesses managing international payments and currency exposure, the current environment demonstrates why FX risk cannot be viewed in isolation. Oil prices influence inflation, inflation affects interest-rate expectations, interest rates influence bond yields, and bond-market movements can drive significant changes in currency valuations. The US dollar's current strength is therefore being supported not only by traditional safe-haven demand but also by the relative attractiveness of US yields. Companies with significant USD, GBP, EUR or energy-related exposure should remain alert to rapid changes in market conditions, particularly around geopolitical developments and central-bank expectations. Currency Hedger provides FX exchange, cross-border payments and managed currency solutions, helping businesses navigate changing currency conditions alongside the wider macroeconomic environment. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets The current market environment is defined less by a single economic narrative and more by competing forces. Oil prices are responding to rapidly changing geopolitical expectations, while sovereign bonds are undergoing a significant repricing as investors reassess inflation, government borrowing and the future path of interest rates. The key risk is that volatility becomes self-reinforcing. Higher oil prices can increase inflation, higher inflation can lift bond yields, and higher yields can then increase pressure across financial markets. Conversely, a meaningful reduction in geopolitical tensions could ease both energy and bond-market pressure. Until there is greater clarity, the most important signals to monitor remain Brent crude, US Treasury yields, the US dollar, inflation expectations and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

XAG/USD remains steady near $94.00 as oil prices ease

Easing oil prices cushion Silver as US-Iran talks lower inflation fears, though easing supply concerns offset gains. A surging US Dollar and multi-year high Treasury yields continue to cap non-yielding Silver’s upside potential. Fed rate hike expectations jump to 67.5% for October, raising the opportunity cost of holding metal assets. Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after two days of losses, trading around $63.90 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Non-yielding Silver is finding underlying support as inflation concerns ease following a pullback in crude oil prices. Energy markets turned lower amid reports that the United States and Iran are considering a phased agreement, mediated by Qatari officials on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, that could lift the US blockade on Iranian ports and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Despite this reprieve in energy costs, silver faces significant headwinds from a strengthening US Dollar and surging Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly pricing in further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve to contain broader price pressures. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for an October benchmark interest rate hike have climbed to nearly 67.5%, up sharply from 55.4% a week ago and just 11% a month earlier. This hawkish shift in monetary expectations has triggered a sharp sell-off in US government bonds. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to a high of 5.501%—its highest mark since June 2004—while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.223%, touching a level not recorded since June 2007. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, capping its upside potential. US yields climb as higher-for-longer Fed stance lifts borrowing costs Economists at ING highlight that US borrowing costs have moved higher as markets respond to “elevated energy prices and a belief that the Federal Reserve is set to tighten policy and keep interest rates higher for longer.” They note that, against a backdrop of “substantial government fiscal deficits and anxiety about debt sustainability,” longer-dated US Treasury yields have “pushed above 5%,” reinforcing the upward pressure on financing costs across the economy. While “corporate bond spreads have tightened,” ING stresses this has not been sufficient “to prevent an overall rise in borrowing costs,” leaving companies and households facing a more challenging funding environment.

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Energies

September 25, 2026

Navigating Oil Price Volatility

Brent Crude Tests $100 as Hormuz Risk and Supply Recovery Drive Extreme Volatility Brent crude is trading around $99 per barrel, down roughly 3%, after moving as high as $105 during the latest period of heightened volatility. The sharp swings highlight a market struggling to establish a clear direction as traders balance improving physical supply signals against persistent geopolitical risks surrounding the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The latest price action suggests that oil markets remain highly sensitive to individual headlines. Saudi Arabia's crude shipments have recovered strongly following attacks on its East-West pipeline, with exports reaching their highest levels since the beginning of the Iran war. The improvement is easing immediate concerns about a severe supply crunch and suggests that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz may be becoming less disrupted. However, the speed of recent price movements means traders are reluctant to establish a lasting trend based on a single supply development. Brent remains caught between expectations of improving availability and the possibility of another geopolitical escalation. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalBrent CrudeAround $99 per barrelRecent High$105Weekly PerformanceDown approximately 4%Short-Term Moving Average$99.59Longer-Term Moving Average$103.60Medium-Term Range$94.40–$110.40Immediate Support$99.59Major Resistance$103.60Geopolitical RiskElevatedKey Supply RouteStrait of HormuzMajor CatalystUS-Iran conflict and potential ceasefire Current Brent Crude Price Action Brent has fallen back toward the $100 level after reaching $105, with the market now testing its short-term moving average at $99.59. This is an important technical level. A sustained break below $99.59 would increase the possibility of further downside and could encourage traders to target the lower portion of the established medium-term range. However, the psychological importance of $100 could make this area difficult to break decisively. Geopolitical risk remains elevated, and the absence of a ceasefire between the US and Iran means traders may remain reluctant to push crude substantially lower while the possibility of renewed supply disruption remains. Saudi Crude Shipments Ease Supply Crunch Concerns Saudi Arabia is providing an important stabilising signal for the physical oil market. Crude shipments from the world's largest oil producer have recovered following the East-West pipeline attacks and have reached their highest levels since the start of the Iran war. The recovery reduces immediate concerns that the attacks will create a prolonged disruption to Saudi export flows. Improving shipments also suggest that transportation through the broader regional supply network is becoming more functional. If this trend continues, some of the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices could gradually unwind. The key uncertainty is whether the improvement represents a lasting normalisation of supply flows or simply a temporary recovery before another disruption. Strait of Hormuz Remains the Critical Supply Risk The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the oil outlook. Any sustained improvement in tanker movements and crude transit through the waterway would reduce fears of a global supply shortage and could place additional pressure on Brent. However, the strategic importance of the route means that any renewed attacks on shipping or restrictions on transit could rapidly reverse the recent improvement in sentiment. This creates an unusually asymmetric headline risk: improving flows can remove part of the geopolitical premium, while a fresh disruption could quickly restore it. Technical Outlook: $99.59 Support in Focus Brent is currently testing the $99.59 short-term moving average, making this one of the most important levels for near-term price direction. A decisive break below this level would weaken the short-term technical structure and potentially expose the market to further losses. At the same time, the moving average could act as sticky support because traders remain cautious about pushing crude significantly below $100 while geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. The longer-term moving average sits around $103.60, creating a significant resistance area above the current market. Brent Remains Inside a Broad Medium-Term Range Despite the extreme short-term volatility, Brent remains within a medium-term range of approximately $94.40 to $110.40. The current structure does not yet provide a strong technical signal that the market is preparing to break decisively above or below this range. The RSI is also relatively neutral, supporting the possibility that Brent remains range-bound while traders wait for a clearer fundamental catalyst. A move through either edge of the range would therefore represent a much more significant technical development than the day-to-day fluctuations currently dominating the market. Bullish Sentiment Persistent Middle East geopolitical risk: The lack of a ceasefire between the US and Iran keeps the possibility of further supply disruption elevated. Strait of Hormuz exposure: Any renewed targeting of vessels or deterioration in transit conditions could rapidly tighten global crude availability. $100 psychological support: Brent's proximity to the $100 level could encourage buying interest if traders remain concerned about geopolitical escalation. Upside technical risk: A recovery through the $103.60 longer-term moving average would strengthen the technical case for a move toward the upper part of the established range. Escalation scenario: A significant deterioration in the conflict or renewed disruption to shipping could push Brent back toward the $110.40 upper boundary. Bearish Sentiment Saudi supply recovery: Higher Saudi crude shipments are reducing immediate concerns about a severe supply shortage. Improving Hormuz transit: Easier crude movements through the Strait could remove part of the geopolitical premium from oil prices. Technical pressure below $100: A sustained break beneath the $99.59 moving average would increase the risk of further downside. Ceasefire risk: Any meaningful ceasefire between the US and Iran could trigger a rapid reduction in geopolitical risk premium. Range resistance: Brent remains well below the $103.60 longer-term moving average, while the broader $94.40–$110.40 range continues to contain price action. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is the $99.59 support level. If Brent holds this level, traders could continue to treat the current decline as a correction within the broader range, particularly while geopolitical risk remains elevated. A sustained move below $99.59 would strengthen the case for a test of lower support within the $94.40–$110.40 range. On the upside, Brent needs to reclaim $103.60 to improve the technical structure. A sustained break above that level could shift attention toward the upper portion of the range and eventually the $110.40 boundary. The largest fundamental catalyst remains the US-Iran conflict. A ceasefire could significantly reduce the geopolitical premium and create conditions for Brent to move below $90, while a major escalation or renewed attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz could push prices back toward $110. Supply Outlook The near-term supply outlook is improving at the margin as Saudi crude shipments recover and transit conditions appear to be becoming less restrictive. That improvement could help prevent a sustained supply deficit if the recovery continues. However, the market remains vulnerable to sudden disruptions because of the concentration of global energy flows around the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinction for traders is therefore between normalising supply flows and sustainable supply security. Current evidence points toward improving flows, but geopolitical conditions remain capable of changing that picture quickly. Demand Outlook Global oil demand remains an important secondary factor while geopolitical developments dominate short-term pricing. If crude remains around $100 or above for an extended period, elevated energy costs could eventually weigh on fuel consumption and economic activity. Conversely, a sharp decline in oil prices following a reduction in geopolitical risk could improve the outlook for consumers and energy-intensive industries. For now, however, changes in physical supply and geopolitical risk are likely to have a greater immediate influence on Brent than incremental changes in demand expectations. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Brent remains locked between two opposing forces. Improving Saudi shipments and signs of easier Strait of Hormuz transit are reducing immediate supply-crunch concerns, while the unresolved US-Iran conflict continues to provide a substantial geopolitical risk premium. Technically, $99.59 is the first major level to watch, followed by the $94.40 lower boundary of the medium-term range. On the upside, $103.60 is the key longer-term moving average, followed by the $110.40 range ceiling. Until one of these levels is decisively broken, Brent could remain highly volatile but broadly range-bound. The coming sessions are likely to be driven by three developments: US-Iran negotiations, the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and evidence that Saudi and regional crude flows can remain stable. Currency Hedger View For companies with significant USD, oil or energy-related exposure, the current Brent volatility creates a challenging currency and cash-flow environment. A sustained move above $100 can increase energy costs and influence inflation, interest-rate expectations and ultimately currency markets. Conversely, a sharp decline in crude following a ceasefire could rapidly change the cost environment for energy importers and exporters. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between energy markets, currencies, interest rates and geopolitical developments, helping businesses assess FX exposure alongside the wider macroeconomic environment. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Brent crude remains highly headline-sensitive, with the market unable to establish a durable directional trend while improving supply flows compete with persistent geopolitical risk. The $99.59 short-term moving average is the immediate technical test. Holding above it would keep the broader range structure intact, while a sustained break could expose Brent to the lower end of the $94.40–$110.40 range. Above the market, $103.60 remains the key resistance zone. A meaningful geopolitical escalation could push Brent toward $110.40, while a credible US-Iran ceasefire could remove a significant portion of the current risk premium and open the way toward substantially lower prices. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Coffee Talk – Coffee Prices Under Pressure as Record Brazil Supply and Rising Inventories Weigh on the Market

Coffee prices remain under pressure after falling toward three-month lows as improving global supply prospects continue to outweigh support from historically low arabica inventories. December ICE Arabica coffee is around $3.80 per pound, while November ICE Robusta is trading near $2,800 per metric ton. The latest weakness follows an upward revision to Brazil's 2026 coffee crop forecast, reinforcing expectations that global availability will remain strong. Brazil's crop agency Conab now estimates 2026 coffee production at 67.6 million bags, up from 66.7 million previously. Arabica production is projected to rise sharply, while robusta output is expected to decline. At the same time, Brazil's export flows are reaching record levels as the harvest progresses through its final stages. The supply picture is therefore becoming increasingly important. Record global production forecasts, improving Brazilian and Vietnamese growing conditions and strong exports are creating a bearish backdrop, although extremely low ICE arabica inventories and potential El Niño disruption remain important upside risks. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember Arabica CoffeeAround $3.80/lbNovember Robusta CoffeeAround $2,800/MTBrazil 2026 Crop67.6 million bagsBrazil 2026 Arabica48.21 million bags, +34.8% y/yBrazil 2026 Robusta19.39 million bags, -6.6% y/yGlobal 2025/26 Production183.6 million bagsGlobal 2025/26 BalanceApproximately 3 million-bag surplusGlobal 2026/27 USDA Production Forecast189.7 million bagsICE Arabica StocksAround 258,000 bags after recent recoveryICE Robusta StocksAround 5,398 lots, 10-month highKey RiskBrazil/Vietnam supply versus weather and inventory constraints Current Coffee Price Action Coffee prices are consolidating below recent highs after reaching three-month lows as traders increasingly price a more comfortable global supply outlook. The latest pressure comes from Brazil's higher 2026 production estimate. The increase reinforces expectations that the world's largest coffee producer can provide substantial additional supply to international markets. Currency movements are also influencing the market. The Brazilian real has weakened to a multi-week low against the US dollar, improving the economics of dollar-denominated coffee exports for Brazilian producers and potentially encouraging additional selling. Robusta has an additional supply-related headwind from rising exchange inventories, while arabica continues to receive some support from exceptionally low certified stocks. Brazil Raises 2026 Coffee Production Forecast Brazil remains the dominant supply variable for the global coffee market. Conab now estimates total 2026 production at 67.6 million bags, compared with its previous estimate of 66.7 million. The composition of the crop is particularly important. Arabica production is expected to reach approximately 48.21 million bags, representing an increase of 34.8% from the previous year. Robusta production is projected at approximately 19.39 million bags, down 6.6% year-on-year. The large increase in arabica production is especially relevant to New York coffee futures because Brazil is the world's largest arabica producer. If the larger crop estimate translates into sustained export availability, it could keep pressure on arabica prices. Brazil's Record Export Flow Adds Global Supply Brazilian coffee is increasingly reaching international buyers as the current harvest progresses toward completion. Brazil exported approximately 4.155 million bags of coffee in August, a record for the month and 31% above the previous year. Arabica exports increased 26% to approximately 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to around 954,000 bags. Separate trade data also points to a substantial increase in Brazilian coffee exports, reinforcing the view that additional physical supply is reaching the international market. For futures traders, this creates an important near-term bearish factor: even if longer-term production risks remain, the current flow of Brazilian coffee can keep nearby supply comfortable. Brazil Weather Supports the Next Crop Weather conditions are currently providing another bearish influence. Rainfall across Minas Gerais, Brazil's principal arabica-growing region, has been significantly above historical averages. Approximately 33.4 mm of rain was recorded during the latest reported week, equivalent to 242% of the historical average. The rainfall is occurring during a critical flowering period and could support the development of the 2026/27 crop. However, the weather outlook remains two-sided. An emerging El Niño pattern could disrupt the timing and distribution of rainfall later in the season, creating renewed production risk if conditions become excessively dry or volatile. Vietnam Supply Outlook Pressures Robusta Vietnam is providing another source of supply pressure, particularly for robusta. Vietnamese coffee exports during the first eight months of 2026 increased 13.7% year-on-year to approximately 1.33 million metric tons. The country's 2025 coffee exports also increased strongly, while 2025/26 production is projected at approximately 1.76 million metric tons, representing a four-year high. Improved rainfall across Vietnam's Central Highlands is supporting soil moisture and cherry development, creating a more constructive production outlook for the world's largest robusta-producing country. Coffee Inventories Show a Major Arabica-Robusta Divide Exchange inventories are sending different signals across the two coffee markets. ICE arabica inventories remain historically low. Stocks recently fell to approximately 217,646 bags, the lowest level in 27 years, before recovering toward 258,415 bags. This exceptionally low inventory base provides underlying support to New York coffee and limits the extent to which supply growth can immediately eliminate physical tightness. Robusta presents the opposite picture. ICE robusta inventories have climbed to approximately 5,398 lots, the highest level in around ten months. The divergence means arabica and robusta can respond differently to the same global supply developments. Global Coffee Supply Moves Toward Record Levels The broader production outlook remains bearish. The International Coffee Organization estimates 2025/26 global production at a record 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year-on-year. Consumption is estimated at approximately 180.6 million bags, down 0.9% year-on-year, creating a global surplus of around 3 million bags. This would represent the first global surplus in approximately five years. Looking further ahead, the USDA projects 2026/27 global production at a new record of approximately 189.7 million bags, an increase of 6% year-on-year. The USDA also expects global arabica production to rise around 12%, although robusta production is forecast to decline slightly. World ending stocks are projected to increase by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. El Niño Remains a Key Weather Risk The emerging El Niño pattern provides an important counterweight to the expanding supply outlook. If El Niño produces delayed or insufficient rainfall in Brazil during critical flowering periods, the 2026/27 crop could face renewed production risks. The same weather pattern could create disruption across coffee-producing regions in Asia and South America through periods of excessive rainfall, drought or abnormal temperatures. The market therefore has to balance currently favourable growing conditions against the possibility that weather conditions become less supportive later in the crop cycle. Bullish Sentiment Extremely low arabica inventories: ICE arabica stocks remain near historically depressed levels, limiting nearby physical availability. El Niño risk: Potential disruptions to Brazilian rainfall could damage flowering and reduce 2026/27 production potential. Arabica supply concentration: Brazil's importance to global arabica production means any significant weather disruption could have an outsized impact on the market. Strong physical demand in some regions: Despite the projected global surplus, coffee consumption remains substantial and can absorb additional supply if prices become more competitive. Weather uncertainty: Current favourable conditions cannot guarantee a successful 2026/27 harvest, particularly with a potentially strong El Niño developing. Bearish Sentiment Higher Brazilian crop forecast: Conab has raised its 2026 production estimate to 67.6 million bags. Sharp arabica production growth: Brazil's 2026 arabica crop is projected at 48.21 million bags, up 34.8% year-on-year. Record Brazilian exports: August exports reached a record 4.155 million bags, increasing global availability. Vietnam supply growth: Higher exports and improved growing conditions are strengthening the robusta supply outlook. Rising robusta inventories: ICE robusta stocks have reached a ten-month high, reinforcing pressure on London futures. Global surplus: The ICO's 2025/26 balance points to a surplus of around 3 million bags, while USDA forecasts another record production year in 2026/27. Favourable Brazilian rainfall: Above-normal rainfall during the flowering period is supporting expectations for the next crop. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key issue for coffee is whether expanding production can overcome the physical tightness still visible in arabica inventories. A continuation of favourable Brazilian weather, strong exports and rising global production expectations would keep the pressure on futures. Further evidence of abundant Vietnamese supply would be particularly negative for robusta. The bullish scenario would require a deterioration in Brazilian weather, stronger evidence of El Niño disruption or renewed declines in already-low arabica inventories. The next major directional signal is therefore likely to come from Brazilian weather and export flows versus ICE inventory movements. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook is becoming more comfortable. Brazil's larger production forecast, record export pace and favourable rainfall are increasing expectations for substantial availability. Vietnam is also contributing to the robusta supply outlook through higher exports and improving crop conditions. However, the longer-term picture remains vulnerable to weather. El Niño could alter rainfall patterns across Brazil and other producing regions, potentially reducing production estimates later in the crop cycle. Demand Outlook Coffee demand is facing a more mixed environment. The ICO's projected 2025/26 consumption decline is consistent with the possibility that high prices have encouraged some demand destruction. At the same time, global consumption remains close to record levels and can respond positively if prices decline. The key demand question is whether lower prices stimulate consumption enough to absorb the additional production expected from Brazil and other major producers. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coffee is likely to remain highly sensitive to Brazilian supply data, currency movements and weather forecasts. A weaker Brazilian real could continue encouraging producer selling, while strong export volumes would reinforce the bearish supply narrative. Rising robusta inventories provide an additional headwind for London coffee. New York arabica has a different underlying structure because of exceptionally low certified inventories. Any renewed decline in ICE stocks could provide support even while global production expectations remain high. For the coming sessions, traders will be watching Brazilian export flows, Minas Gerais rainfall, Vietnam crop conditions, ICE inventories and developments in the El Niño pattern. Currency Hedger View Coffee is a globally traded commodity with significant currency exposure for producers, exporters, roasters and international buyers. The Brazilian real is particularly important because Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer. A weaker real can improve the local-currency returns received by Brazilian exporters and may encourage additional coffee selling into international markets. For international buyers, movements in the US dollar can simultaneously affect the dollar price of coffee and the local-currency cost of procurement. This makes FX management an important consideration when commodity prices are already volatile. Businesses purchasing or selling coffee across multiple currencies can benefit from managing the commodity exposure and currency exposure as separate but connected components of their overall risk strategy. For international FX, payment and currency-management solutions, visit Currency Hedger. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Coffee remains under pressure because the global supply outlook is becoming increasingly comfortable, particularly as Brazil moves more of its current crop into export markets. The increase in Conab's Brazilian production forecast reinforces the supply story, while record August exports and favourable rainfall across Minas Gerais provide additional evidence that Brazil can deliver substantial volumes into the international market. Vietnam is also adding to the pressure on robusta through higher exports, improving soil moisture and stronger production expectations. Rising ICE robusta inventories further reinforce that trend. However, the arabica market retains an important source of support through exceptionally low certified inventories. The difference between historically low arabica stocks and rapidly increasing Brazilian production will be critical in determining whether New York coffee can stabilise. Beyond the immediate supply picture, El Niño remains the principal weather risk. If the developing pattern produces delayed rainfall or adverse conditions during key flowering and development periods, current production expectations could change quickly. For now, the market is being driven by abundant expected supply versus tight arabica inventories and future weather risk. The coming sessions should provide further clues as to whether expanding Brazilian availability is sufficient to keep prices under sustained pressure. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 25, 2026

European Natural Gas Prices Slide as Hormuz Risk and Winter Storage Keep the Market Tight

European natural gas prices are trading around €74.4 per megawatt-hour, giving back part of the recent rebound as reports of US-Iran discussions over a possible phased agreement raise hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could eventually reopen. The diplomatic developments are easing some of the immediate risk premium in European gas, but they have not removed the underlying supply problem. LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain severely disrupted, forcing Europe and Asia to compete for limited alternative cargoes at a time when European buyers are trying to rebuild inventories before winter. European storage is now just above 70% full, leaving inventories below both seasonal norms and the region's target. At the same time, maintenance activity in Norway is restricting pipeline deliveries, adding another source of near-term tightness to the European market. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalEuropean Natural Gas€74.4/MWhWeekly Price ChangeDown approximately 0.6%European StorageJust above 70% fullWinter PreparationInventories remain below seasonal expectations and target levelsPersian Gulf LNGSeverely disruptedStrait of HormuzStill a major supply-risk pointNorwegian GasMaintenance is reducing pipeline flowsKey Market ConflictDiplomatic de-escalation vs. tight winter supply Current European Natural Gas Price Action European gas prices are retreating toward €74/MWh after recent gains, with the latest weakness reflecting reduced immediate fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Reports of US-Iran discussions over a phased agreement have introduced the possibility of a reopening of the strategic waterway. If that process develops into a durable agreement, some of the geopolitical premium embedded in European gas could unwind. However, the market is not yet operating under normal supply conditions. Persian Gulf LNG flows remain severely disrupted, while European storage levels are still below the level required to provide a comfortable buffer for the winter heating season. The result is a market where short-term diplomatic headlines can produce sharp price movements, but underlying supply fundamentals remain tight. Strait of Hormuz Remains the Critical Supply Variable The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the European gas outlook because of its importance to LNG transportation from the Persian Gulf. Any sustained reopening would potentially improve access to LNG cargoes and reduce competition between European and Asian buyers. Until that occurs, however, the market must continue to account for severely restricted Persian Gulf flows. A prolonged disruption would force European buyers to compete more aggressively for LNG from alternative suppliers, potentially increasing spot-market volatility. The uncertainty surrounding the waterway therefore remains one of the most important upside risks for European natural gas. European Gas Storage Remains Below Comfortable Levels European storage is just over 70% full. Although this represents a substantial inventory base, it remains below both seasonal norms and the region's target as Europe approaches the winter heating period. The timing is particularly important. Storage must continue to build before temperatures begin increasing withdrawals. Any disruption to injections, combined with stronger-than-expected winter demand, could rapidly reduce the market's available buffer. If LNG supply remains constrained, European buyers may need to maintain elevated prices to attract replacement cargoes and compete with Asian demand. Norwegian Maintenance Tightens Pipeline Supply Norway remains one of Europe's most important sources of pipeline gas, making maintenance activity a significant near-term market variable. Current maintenance is reducing Norwegian deliveries into Europe at a time when LNG availability is already constrained. This creates an additional layer of supply pressure. If Norwegian flows recover while geopolitical risks ease, European gas prices could remain under pressure. Conversely, extended maintenance combined with continued LNG disruption would make the storage rebuild more difficult. Europe and Asia Compete for Limited LNG The disruption to Persian Gulf LNG is increasing competition between European and Asian buyers. With fewer readily available cargoes, European importers must compete for alternative LNG supplies from other producing regions. Asian buyers face the same constraint, meaning that any increase in demand in either region can have a disproportionate effect on global spot prices. This creates a more interconnected gas market in which developments in the Middle East can quickly affect European benchmark pricing. Bullish Sentiment Storage remains below target: European inventories above 70% are still below seasonal expectations, limiting the winter supply buffer. Hormuz remains disrupted: Persian Gulf LNG flows have not returned to normal, keeping a major source of global supply constrained. Norwegian maintenance: Reduced pipeline deliveries are tightening the European balance at a sensitive point in the seasonal storage cycle. Europe-Asia LNG competition: Limited global spot availability increases the risk of stronger prices if either region accelerates purchases. Winter demand risk: A colder-than-expected winter could increase withdrawals rapidly and expose the relatively limited storage cushion. Geopolitical uncertainty: Diplomatic discussions have not yet translated into a confirmed and durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bearish Sentiment US-Iran discussions: Progress toward a phased agreement could reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in European gas prices. Potential Hormuz reopening: A sustained reopening could restore Persian Gulf LNG flows and improve global supply availability. Current price decline: European gas has already fallen approximately 0.6% over the week, indicating some easing of immediate supply concerns. Storage is still substantial: Inventories above 70% provide a meaningful starting point for the winter season, particularly if injections continue. Norwegian flows can recover: Once maintenance is completed, increased pipeline availability could provide additional support to European storage injections. Alternative LNG supply: Continued access to LNG from outside the Persian Gulf could limit the impact of regional disruptions if European buyers can secure sufficient cargoes. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major move in European natural gas is likely to depend on whether geopolitical developments produce a genuine improvement in physical LNG availability. A credible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would reduce competition for alternative cargoes and could remove a significant portion of the current risk premium. Conversely, continued disruption would leave Europe competing aggressively with Asia for limited LNG supplies while simultaneously attempting to rebuild storage. The €74/MWh area is therefore being shaped by two opposing forces: potential diplomatic de-escalation versus an unresolved winter supply deficit risk. Traders will be watching the direction of Persian Gulf LNG flows, the pace of European storage injections, Norwegian pipeline availability and weather forecasts as the winter heating season approaches. Supply Outlook European supply remains vulnerable to disruption. Norwegian maintenance is currently reducing pipeline flows, while Persian Gulf LNG exports remain severely affected by the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. A diplomatic breakthrough could materially improve the supply outlook by restoring LNG flows and reducing Europe's need to compete for alternative cargoes. Without such an improvement, European buyers remain exposed to tighter global LNG availability. Demand Outlook European gas demand is likely to become increasingly weather-sensitive as the winter heating season approaches. Industrial consumption remains an important component of the European demand profile, but residential and commercial heating demand can increase rapidly when temperatures fall. The relatively low storage position means that colder weather could have a disproportionately large effect on the market by accelerating withdrawals before inventories have reached a more comfortable level. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions European natural gas is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines while the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. A credible path toward reopening the waterway could encourage further profit-taking and reduce the premium associated with LNG supply disruption. However, if negotiations stall or regional tensions intensify, the market could quickly refocus on limited Persian Gulf flows, European storage deficits and winter demand risk. The most important combination to watch is therefore storage progress plus physical LNG availability. Rising inventories and recovering LNG flows would improve the supply outlook, while continued disruption and weak storage growth would leave European gas exposed to renewed upside volatility. Currency Hedger View European natural gas prices are closely linked to currency movements because energy procurement and LNG transactions are heavily influenced by the US dollar, while European consumers and businesses ultimately face costs in euros and other local currencies. A stronger US dollar can increase the effective cost of dollar-denominated energy imports for European buyers, while euro weakness can compound the impact of higher gas prices on corporate energy budgets. For European businesses with significant energy consumption, the combination of gas-price volatility and EUR/USD movements can create a double layer of cost uncertainty. Managing the currency exposure separately from the underlying commodity exposure can provide greater visibility over future cash flows. For international FX, payment and currency-management solutions, visit Currency Hedger. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets European natural gas is currently caught between improving diplomatic expectations and a still-fragile physical supply balance. The retreat toward €74/MWh reflects reduced immediate fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, but the underlying market has not yet returned to normal. Persian Gulf LNG flows remain severely disrupted, Norwegian maintenance is restricting pipeline supply, and European storage is only slightly above 70% as the region prepares for winter. That combination leaves the market particularly sensitive to new information. A sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would be an important bearish development because it could restore LNG availability and reduce competition between Europe and Asia. Until that happens, however, the market remains exposed to renewed upside pressure if negotiations fail, supply disruptions persist or winter demand proves stronger than expected. For the coming sessions, traders should focus less on the headline price move and more on whether physical supply improves quickly enough to allow European storage to reach a comfortable winter position. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Cocoa Prices Rebound as West African Dryness Threatens the 2026/27 Crop Outlook

Cocoa prices are extending their rebound as dry conditions across West Africa raise fresh concerns about the development of the 2026/27 crop. December ICE New York cocoa is trading around $5,600 per metric ton, while December London cocoa is near £4,200, with both markets posting a third consecutive session of gains. The immediate catalyst is weather. Forecasts for below-normal rainfall across the Ivory Coast over the coming week could increase moisture stress at a critical stage of the new crop cycle, while longer-term concerns surrounding pod development, disease and the potential impact of El Niño continue to create uncertainty around West African production. At the same time, the market is balancing these crop risks against evidence that physical cocoa availability has improved substantially during the current season. Ivory Coast production and shipments have increased, while ICE inventories have climbed to their highest level in more than two years. This leaves cocoa caught between improving near-term supply and growing concerns about the next crop. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember NY CocoaAround $5,600/MT, extending reboundDecember London CocoaAround £4,200/MT, supported by weaker GBPIvory Coast 2025/26 Harvest2.06 MMT, up 30% y/yIvory Coast Shipments2.14 MMT through September 13, up 18% y/y on international-year comparisonICE Cocoa Inventories3.44 million bags, highest in about 2.25 yearsIvory Coast 2026/27 Crop AssessmentAround 1.8 MMT, potentially 18% below 2025/26Ghana 2026/27 Crop Estimate650,000 MT, down 13% from 2025/26Global 2026/27 BalanceSurplus estimates have narrowed sharplyKey Weather RiskBelow-normal West African rainfall and potential El Niño impact Current Cocoa Price Action Cocoa is recovering after falling to approximately 1.75-month lows earlier in the month. The rebound is now being driven primarily by renewed weather risk rather than a deterioration in current physical availability. New York cocoa has also been supported by concerns surrounding the quality and development of the upcoming West African crop. London cocoa has received an additional boost from sterling weakness, which makes sterling-denominated cocoa more attractive in currency-adjusted terms. The market therefore remains highly sensitive to changes in West African weather forecasts. A continuation of dry conditions could increase the premium attached to the 2026/27 crop, particularly if early signs of weaker pod development are confirmed. Ivory Coast Production and Shipments The Ivory Coast remains the dominant influence on the global cocoa supply outlook. The country's cocoa regulator reported that 2.06 million metric tons were harvested between June 2025 and June 2026, representing a 30% increase from the previous season's 1.58 million tons. Shipments have also remained strong. Cumulative exports to ports reached approximately 2.14 million tons through September 13, an increase of around 18% from the comparable period a year earlier under the international cocoa marketing calendar. However, the comparison becomes more complicated because the Ivory Coast has shifted its own marketing year to begin on September 1. Deliveries during the first part of the new season were considerably lower than the comparable period under the previous calendar. This creates an important distinction for traders: current-season availability remains relatively strong, but early flows for the new crop are providing a less comfortable signal. 2026/27 Ivory Coast Crop Faces Weather Risk The biggest medium-term concern is the condition of the crop now entering the new season. Early field assessments indicate poor cherelle formation and weaker-than-average pod development. Initial estimates put the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop around 1.8 million tons, compared with approximately 2.2 million tons in 2025/26. That would represent a decline of roughly 18%. The forecast becomes more significant if below-normal rainfall develops across the main cocoa-growing regions. Cocoa trees require adequate moisture during pod development, meaning persistent dryness could further reduce yields and bean quality. Ghana Production Outlook Weakens Ghana provides another important source of supply risk. The country's cocoa regulator estimates 2026/27 production at approximately 650,000 MT, around 13% below the 750,000 MT expected for 2025/26. A more bearish production scenario has also been discussed, with Ghana's cocoa regulator previously indicating that output could fall toward 450,000–550,000 MT because of swollen shoot disease, aging farms and adverse weather associated with El Niño. The current season, however, remains strong. Ghana has reported approximately 750,000 MT of harvested cocoa for 2025/26, up 25.6% from the previous season. This again highlights the two-speed nature of the market: current supply is comparatively comfortable, while the next crop carries significantly greater uncertainty. ICE Cocoa Inventories Signal Comfortable Near-Term Supply One of the strongest bearish factors remains the level of exchange inventories. ICE cocoa stocks have risen to approximately 3.44 million bags, the highest level in around 2.25 years. Rising certified inventories suggest that physical availability has improved considerably from the extremely tight conditions that characterised the previous cocoa price spike. Barry Callebaut has also indicated that the global cocoa market is currently well supplied and better positioned to absorb weather-related risks than it was during the 2023/24 El Niño episode. This provides an important counterweight to the emerging crop concerns. Global Cocoa Surplus Is Narrowing The global balance is becoming less comfortable for 2026/27. StoneX has reduced its projected global cocoa surplus to approximately 25,000 MT from 149,000 MT previously, citing increased production risks associated with expected El Niño conditions. Another estimate puts the 2026/27 surplus at around 80,000 MT, down sharply from approximately 415,000 MT in 2025/26. That projection is based on global production falling toward 4.87 million tons from approximately 5.11 million tons. The forecasts do not yet establish a global deficit, but the direction is important: expectations for a large surplus are being reduced as production risks increase. El Niño Adds Medium-Term Weather Risk The developing El Niño pattern remains one of the most important variables for cocoa traders. El Niño conditions can produce warmer and drier weather across parts of West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture and increasing stress on cocoa trees. If the weather pattern becomes stronger or persists through key crop-development periods, the effect could be reflected in lower yields, poorer bean quality and tighter global availability later in the season. The market is therefore likely to place increasing emphasis on rainfall forecasts and field reports as the 2026/27 crop develops. Cocoa Demand Remains Mixed Across Major Grinding Regions Demand signals remain uneven. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year-on-year in Q2 to approximately 316,366 MT, representing the weakest second-quarter level in six years and reinforcing concerns about high cocoa prices weighing on processing demand. North American grindings provided a contrasting signal, rising 7.7% year-on-year to approximately 109,659 MT. Asian grinding activity was even stronger, increasing 25% year-on-year to approximately 224,646 MT. The regional divergence means that the demand outlook cannot be characterised as uniformly weak. European processing remains a concern, while North American and Asian activity indicates that consumption and processing demand remain capable of absorbing significant cocoa volumes. Bullish Sentiment Dry West African weather: Below-normal rainfall forecasts for the Ivory Coast could increase crop stress and reduce 2026/27 production potential. Weak early crop development: Poor cherelle formation and pod development are already raising concerns about the next Ivory Coast harvest. Ghana production risk: Estimates for Ghana's 2026/27 crop point to another significant decline, with disease, aging farms and weather risks weighing on output. Narrowing global surplus: Major forecasts have reduced expected 2026/27 surpluses substantially, leaving less supply cushion against weather disruptions. El Niño threat: A stronger El Niño could create warmer and drier conditions across key West African growing areas. Asian and North American demand: Strong Q2 grinding figures from Asia and North America demonstrate that global processing demand remains resilient in important markets. Bearish Sentiment Large current-season harvest: Ivory Coast production reached 2.06 MMT in 2025/26, substantially above the previous season. Strong export flows: Ivory Coast shipments remain elevated on the international marketing-year comparison, signalling substantial physical availability. High ICE inventories: Exchange stocks around 3.44 million bags provide a significant nearby supply buffer. European demand weakness: European grinding volumes have fallen sharply, indicating that high cocoa prices are already affecting processing demand. Global surplus remains possible: Even after downward revisions, several forecasts still point toward a small 2026/27 global surplus rather than an outright deficit. Recent price recovery could face resistance: Cocoa has already experienced a substantial rebound from its recent lows, leaving the market vulnerable to profit-taking if weather concerns fail to intensify. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major directional signal is likely to come from the interaction between West African weather and physical cocoa availability. A continuation of dry conditions across the Ivory Coast would strengthen the argument that 2026/27 production could fall materially below the previous season. Confirmation of poor pod development or deteriorating crop conditions could increase the weather premium embedded in cocoa futures. Conversely, improved rainfall combined with continued strong deliveries and elevated ICE inventories would reinforce the view that near-term supply remains comfortable. The key question is therefore whether the market begins pricing the potential 2026/27 supply reduction more aggressively than it discounts the substantial availability carried over from the current season. Supply Outlook Near-term cocoa supply remains relatively comfortable, supported by strong Ivory Coast and Ghana production during 2025/26 and elevated exchange inventories. The outlook becomes more uncertain further into the 2026/27 season. Lower projected output from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, disease pressure, aging plantations and the possibility of El Niño-related weather stress all point toward a tighter production environment. The coming weeks will be particularly important because rainfall and early pod-development conditions can influence expectations for the main crop well before final production numbers become available. Demand Outlook Demand is mixed rather than uniformly weak. European grinding remains under pressure, while North American and Asian processing activity has been considerably stronger. The regional divergence suggests that high prices are affecting some consumers and processors without eliminating global demand. If cocoa prices remain elevated, European demand could remain a limiting factor. However, continued strength in Asian processing and resilient North American grinding would provide support to the broader consumption outlook. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cocoa is entering a period where weather may increasingly compete with inventory data as the dominant price driver. Traders will monitor Ivory Coast rainfall forecasts, crop-development reports and early-season deliveries for evidence that the projected 2026/27 production decline is becoming more tangible. At the same time, ICE inventories remain a substantial bearish buffer. If stocks continue rising while West African weather improves, the recent rebound could struggle to extend. The market therefore remains balanced between comfortable current supply and increasingly uncertain future production. A sustained move higher would require stronger evidence that the emerging crop risks will translate into a materially tighter global balance. Currency Hedger View Cocoa's international pricing structure creates additional currency considerations for producers, processors, exporters and importers. Sterling movements are particularly relevant to London cocoa. A weaker pound can support sterling-denominated cocoa prices by altering the currency value of the underlying commodity. For companies purchasing cocoa internationally, however, simultaneous movements in cocoa prices and exchange rates can materially change landed costs. The wider macro environment also remains important. Changes in the US dollar, global interest-rate expectations and risk sentiment can influence commodity investment flows and the relative attractiveness of dollar- and sterling-denominated contracts. For businesses with cocoa-related FX exposure, managing the currency component separately from the underlying commodity exposure can help provide greater visibility over future costs and margins. For tailored international FX, payment and currency-management solutions, visit Currency Hedger. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cocoa is increasingly being defined by a conflict between strong current physical availability and a less certain 2026/27 supply outlook. The substantial Ivory Coast harvest, strong shipments and elevated ICE inventories provide evidence that the market is not currently experiencing the extreme physical tightness that drove previous cocoa price surges. However, the forward picture is changing. Early crop assessments in the Ivory Coast and Ghana point toward lower production, while the potential for El Niño-related dryness introduces an additional layer of uncertainty. If rainfall deteriorates during critical crop-development periods, the market could begin to price a significantly smaller West African crop. For now, traders are likely to remain highly responsive to weather forecasts, crop reports and inventory movements. The ability of cocoa to sustain its recovery will depend on whether emerging 2026/27 production risks become sufficiently large to offset the comfortable supply conditions visible in the current season. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Sugar Prices Face Fresh Pressure as Weak Demand Offsets Mounting Global Crop Risks

Sugar markets are sending mixed signals as near-term demand concerns weigh on New York futures while London white sugar remains firmer. October NY Sugar #11 is around 17.52 cents per pound, while December London white sugar is trading near $510 per metric ton. The immediate pressure is coming from physical demand. Large potential deliveries against the expiring October New York contract and the unusually high delivery volume against the recent London contract suggest that buyers are not absorbing available supplies as aggressively as previously expected. At the same time, the longer-term supply outlook remains considerably more constructive. Multiple industry forecasts continue to identify the possibility of a global sugar deficit during the 2026/27 season, with risks concentrated in Brazil, India and Thailand. This creates a market divided between weak current demand and potentially tighter future supply. The direction of prices will depend on which side of that equation gains control as traders move beyond the current delivery period and increasingly focus on the next crop cycle. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationOct 2026 NY Sugar #11~17.52¢/lbDec 2026 London White Sugar~ $510/MTNY Sugar TrendUnder pressureLondon Sugar TrendFirmerPotential Oct NY Delivery~1.8 MMTRecent London October Delivery499,350 MT2026/27 ISO Balance-200,000 MT deficitStoneX Latest 2026/27 Balance-900,000 MT deficitThailand 2026/27 Output Estimate~10 MMTIndia Monsoon15% below normal as of Sept. 23Key DriversPhysical demand, Brazil production, India, Thailand, crude oil and fund positioning Current Sugar Price Action NY sugar remains under pressure after recently falling to a one-month low, while London white sugar is showing greater resilience after reaching a roughly one-and-a-half-month low. The divergence between the two markets highlights different regional supply and demand dynamics. New York is particularly sensitive to expectations surrounding raw sugar availability and the balance between speculative positioning and physical demand. London white sugar is also being influenced by the substantial delivery activity associated with the expiring contract. The immediate market question is whether the recent weakness represents a temporary correction following the earlier rally or the beginning of a deeper adjustment in expectations for global demand. Physical Demand Becomes the Immediate Pressure Point The most important bearish signal is coming from the physical market. Current open interest in the October NY sugar contract indicates that deliveries could reach approximately 1.8 million metric tons, according to the market assessment cited in the source material. That would be above the average of the previous six years and suggests that a relatively large amount of sugar could be delivered against the expiring contract. Large deliveries do not automatically mean consumption is weak, but they can indicate that commercial demand has not absorbed nearby supplies at the pace required to prevent significant stocks from moving into delivery channels. This is particularly important after the market's strong rally earlier in September. London Sugar Delivery Highlights Demand Concerns The London market is also showing evidence of substantial nearby supply. Approximately 499,350 MT was delivered against the recently expired October London sugar contract, representing a 91% year-on-year increase and one of the largest October deliveries on record. The scale of those deliveries has reinforced concerns that physical demand is currently weaker than the market had anticipated. If similar delivery pressure continues, traders could remain reluctant to build aggressive long positions in nearby contracts. However, the significance of these deliveries may diminish as the market transitions toward the next crop cycle and begins focusing more heavily on future production risks. Global Sugar Deficit Expectations Are Being Revised The longer-term outlook remains much less bearish than the immediate physical-demand picture. The International Sugar Organization projects a 200,000 MT global deficit for 2026/27, compared with a 1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26. StoneX has more recently narrowed its 2026/27 deficit estimate to 900,000 MT, compared with its previous 1.7 MMT deficit projection. These revisions indicate that analysts continue to expect a tighter global balance, but the magnitude of that tightness remains uncertain. Other forecasts are also producing substantially different estimates. Covrig Analytics has projected a 300,000 MT deficit, while previous estimates had pointed toward a small surplus. The wide range of estimates is itself significant. It means traders have not yet established a clear consensus on the size of the 2026/27 global deficit. Brazil Sugar Production Remains Critical Brazil remains the world's largest sugar producer, making Center-South production one of the most important variables for global prices. Earlier production data showed Center-South June sugar output falling 26.3% year over year to 3.903 MMT. The Brazilian crop is particularly important because mills can adjust the balance between sugar and ethanol production. Higher crude oil prices can encourage mills to allocate more cane toward ethanol, potentially reducing sugar availability. With energy prices elevated, this flexibility could become increasingly important for the global sugar balance. Thailand Crop Risks Remain Elevated Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, making its production outlook another major supply variable. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production at around 10 MMT, representing a potential 17% decline from the previous season. Another industry forecast has placed Thailand's 2026/27 output even lower, at approximately 9.5 MMT. Lower Thai production would reduce export availability and increase the importance of supplies from Brazil and other major producers. India Weather Becomes Increasingly Important India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country, and monsoon conditions remain a key variable for the next crop. Cumulative monsoon rainfall was approximately 15% below normal as of September 23, although the deficit has narrowed significantly from earlier in the season. The Indian Meteorological Department has warned that the current monsoon could become the country's weakest in 17 years. That creates a potential supply risk for the 2026/27 crop, particularly if reduced rainfall affects cane yields and sugarcane development. At the same time, India has authorized up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31, an unusual development for a country that is normally a major sugar exporter. The decision provides an additional indication that domestic supply conditions require careful monitoring. El Niño Adds Another Global Crop Risk Weather is becoming an increasingly important component of the longer-term sugar outlook. The development of a strong El Niño pattern could reduce rainfall across major sugar-producing regions, including Brazil, India and Thailand. If dry conditions persist during critical crop-development periods, production estimates could be revised lower. This represents a significant upside risk because the global sugar balance is already projected by several organizations to move from surplus toward deficit in 2026/27. However, weather forecasts remain subject to change, meaning the market will require confirmation through crop conditions and production estimates before assigning a larger risk premium. Global Sugar Balance Remains Highly Uncertain The contrast between the 2025/26 and 2026/27 outlooks is important. The ISO expects 2025/26 global production to reach a record 182 MMT, up 3.5% year over year, resulting in a projected 1.1 MMT surplus. For 2026/27, the ISO expects production to decline approximately 1% to 180.1 MMT and the market to move into a 200,000 MT deficit. The USDA's longer-term estimates also point toward lower global production, although its projections differ materially from other organizations. The USDA expects 2026/27 global production to decline to approximately 184.854 MMT, while human consumption rises to a record 179.991 MMT. That would leave ending stocks around 44.410 MMT. The differences between these forecasts demonstrate how sensitive the sugar outlook is to assumptions around crop yields, weather, consumption and government policy. Fund Positioning Could Amplify Volatility Speculative positioning is another important consideration. The latest Commitment of Traders data showed commodity funds increasing their net-long NY sugar position by 791 contracts to 161,342 net long, the highest level in almost three years. A large speculative long position can provide support while prices are rising, but it can also increase downside volatility if traders begin liquidating positions. If weak physical demand continues to pressure prices, fund liquidation could accelerate a correction independently of the underlying crop outlook. This makes positioning an important short-term risk alongside the fundamental supply picture. Bullish Sentiment 2026/27 supply is projected to tighten: Several industry forecasts identify a global deficit rather than the surplus expected for 2025/26. Thailand production faces significant downside risk: Estimates around 9.5–10 MMT point to a potentially substantial decline in output. India's monsoon remains below normal: Continued rainfall concerns could affect future cane yields and sugar production. Brazil production has shown weakness: Lower Center-South output provides a supportive signal for prices. India is allowing raw sugar imports: Import activity from a normally major exporting country indicates tighter domestic supply conditions. El Niño creates additional crop risk: Drier conditions across major producing regions could reduce future global production. Higher crude oil prices can influence Brazil's production mix: Stronger energy prices may encourage Brazilian mills to allocate more cane toward ethanol rather than sugar. Bearish Sentiment Physical demand is currently weak: Large deliveries against expiring contracts indicate that nearby sugar availability is not being absorbed aggressively. The 2026/27 deficit forecasts are being reduced: StoneX has narrowed its projected deficit from 1.7 MMT to 900,000 MT. 2025/26 production is exceptionally large: Record global output has created a substantial supply base entering the next marketing cycle. Fund positioning is elevated: Large speculative long positions could amplify downside pressure if liquidation accelerates. Global production remains above consumption in some forecasts: The USDA's projections imply substantial global output and relatively high ending stocks. London and New York futures have recently weakened: The market has already demonstrated vulnerability to demand-driven selling. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Sugar is approaching an important fundamental crossroads. The immediate market is dealing with evidence of weak physical demand and substantial contract deliveries, while the forward market is increasingly focused on the possibility of tighter production during 2026/27. A continuation of large deliveries and weak physical buying could keep pressure on nearby NY sugar and encourage further liquidation of speculative positions. However, any significant deterioration in Brazilian, Indian or Thai crop expectations could quickly shift attention back toward the projected global deficit. The key question for traders is whether current demand weakness is strong enough to outweigh the emerging production risks for the next crop cycle. Supply Outlook Global supply is moving from a record-production environment toward a potentially tighter 2026/27 balance. Brazil remains the largest variable, with production affected by weather, cane yields and the sugar-versus-ethanol allocation decision. Thailand faces significant production risks, while India remains dependent on the performance of the monsoon and subsequent cane development. The range of global deficit estimates remains unusually wide, meaning supply expectations could change substantially as more crop data becomes available. Demand Outlook Near-term demand is currently the weaker side of the market. Large contract deliveries in both New York and London indicate that physical buyers have not been absorbing available supplies aggressively enough to prevent significant delivery activity. The demand picture could improve if lower prices stimulate additional purchases from refiners and industrial users. Global consumption is nevertheless expected to continue growing over the longer term, with the USDA projecting 2026/27 human sugar consumption at a record level. The key issue is whether consumption growth can keep pace with changes in global production. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Sugar traders will continue watching contract deliveries, fund positioning and physical-market activity for evidence that the recent demand weakness is either deepening or beginning to stabilize. The next major focus will increasingly shift toward the 2026/27 crop outlook. Brazilian cane processing, Thai production estimates, Indian rainfall and government import/export policy will all remain important. Crude oil prices could also influence Brazil's sugar allocation between ethanol and sugar, particularly if energy prices remain elevated. The market therefore remains caught between weak nearby demand and a potentially tightening global supply balance. A deterioration in physical demand could extend the current correction, while a significant crop setback in any of the major producing regions could restore the supply-risk premium. Currency Hedger View Sugar is a globally traded commodity, meaning producers, refiners, exporters and international buyers can face substantial foreign-exchange exposure alongside commodity-price risk. For companies purchasing sugar in US dollars or other major currencies while generating revenue in a different currency, exchange-rate movements can materially change the effective cost of sugar. This becomes particularly important during periods of commodity volatility, when the underlying sugar price and the relevant currency can move in opposite directions. Currency Hedger provides businesses with currency exchange, international payments and managed FX solutions to help manage foreign-exchange exposure associated with international trade. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Sugar is currently being pulled in opposite directions by two very different fundamental forces. Near-term physical demand is clearly creating pressure, with substantial deliveries against expiring contracts indicating that available sugar is not being absorbed as aggressively as the market previously anticipated. Elevated speculative positioning adds another potential source of volatility if long liquidation develops. The longer-term picture is more constructive. Several forecasts point toward a return to a global deficit during 2026/27, while production risks are developing across Brazil, India and Thailand. India's below-normal monsoon, Thailand's lower production estimates and weaker Brazilian output provide genuine supply risks, while the potential influence of El Niño adds another layer of uncertainty. The most important issue for the coming sessions is therefore the timing of the market's transition from near-term demand weakness to forward supply concerns. If physical demand remains weak, prices can continue to face pressure even with a projected 2026/27 deficit. But if crop estimates deteriorate while demand stabilizes, the market could begin placing substantially greater value on the next production cycle. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 25, 2026

Heating Oil Prices Slide Toward $4.70 as Diesel Export Policy Uncertainty Collides With Tight Winter Inventories

US heating oil futures are extending their decline toward $4.70 per gallon, with prices reaching a two-week low as uncertainty over potential US diesel export restrictions continues to dominate the near-term outlook. The White House has denied reports of a planned 90-day diesel export ban, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright has indicated that the administration is seeking voluntary production or export curbs from major refiners instead. However, President Donald Trump has previously expressed support for restricting diesel exports, leaving the precise policy direction unclear. At the same time, diplomatic developments involving the US and Iran are creating the possibility of improved Middle East supply flows. Reports of discussions around a phased path toward ending the conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing US economic restrictions on Iran, could reduce some of the immediate supply-risk premium in energy markets. The downside pressure is being balanced by a significant structural risk: US distillate inventories remain well below their five-year seasonal average just as the winter heating season approaches. Any renewed disruption to Middle East energy flows or stronger-than-expected winter demand could therefore quickly tighten the market again. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationHeating OilBelow $4.70/galRecent TrendThird consecutive declineRecent LowTwo-week lowUS Diesel Policy90-day ban denied; voluntary curbs discussedTrump PositionPreviously supported diesel export restrictionsUS Distillate InventoriesAbout 12% below five-year averageMiddle East RiskStrait of Hormuz remains a major supply variableWinter DemandSeasonal demand expected to increaseKey DriversDiesel policy, inventories, Iran, Hormuz, crude oil and winter demand Current Heating Oil Price Action Heating oil futures are extending a three-session decline, with prices falling below $4.70 per gallon and reaching their lowest level in approximately two weeks. The decline indicates that traders are currently placing greater emphasis on the possibility of improved supply conditions and reduced geopolitical risk. The US government's conflicting signals on diesel exports are keeping the market particularly sensitive to headlines. A confirmed restriction on exports could tighten domestic availability, while a decision to maintain normal export flows would leave the market more dependent on refinery output, inventories and imported supply. The market is therefore moving lower, but the underlying fundamental picture remains considerably tighter than the recent price action alone suggests. US Diesel Export Policy Creates Uncertainty Diesel export policy has become one of the most important near-term catalysts for heating oil. The White House has denied reports that the US is preparing a 90-day diesel export ban. At the same time, Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the administration is pursuing voluntary curbs from major refiners. President Trump has previously supported restricting diesel exports, however, creating uncertainty over whether the administration ultimately pursues mandatory restrictions, voluntary reductions or no significant restrictions at all. For the domestic heating-oil market, reduced exports could increase the amount of distillate available inside the United States and potentially ease domestic supply pressure. The opposite would be true if exports remain unrestricted while inventories remain low. In that scenario, the US would continue competing with international buyers for available distillate supplies. Distillate Inventories Remain a Major Support Factor US distillate inventories are approximately 12% below the five-year average. That deficit is particularly important because heating oil demand is entering a seasonally stronger period. Low inventories mean the market has less of a buffer against refinery outages, stronger winter consumption or disruptions to crude and refined-product supply. If temperatures fall sharply across major heating regions, demand could accelerate at precisely the point when inventories are already below normal seasonal levels. This creates a potentially significant source of upside risk even while heating oil futures are currently declining. Winter Heating Demand Moves Into Focus The approaching winter heating season is shifting the market's attention from immediate policy headlines toward physical availability. Heating oil and other distillates play an important role in winter energy consumption, particularly across the US Northeast. A normal winter could gradually draw down inventories from already-low levels. A colder-than-normal winter would increase the rate of withdrawals and could expose the market to tighter regional supply conditions. The market will therefore increasingly respond to weather forecasts, refinery utilization, inventory reports and regional price differentials. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz Diplomatic developments involving Iran are providing some relief to the supply-risk premium. Negotiators are reportedly exploring a phased pathway toward ending the conflict, including the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and changes to US economic restrictions on Iran. A sustained reopening of the Strait would be significant for global energy markets because the waterway is a major route for Middle East oil and refined-product flows. However, continued attacks across the region mean that traders cannot yet assume a lasting de-escalation. For heating oil, the difference between a genuine restoration of regional energy flows and a temporary reduction in tensions could be substantial. Refinery Supply Remains Critical Heating oil is a refined distillate product, making refinery operations another major component of the supply equation. If US refiners maintain strong throughput, domestic distillate availability could improve and reduce some of the pressure created by low inventories. However, if refinery disruptions emerge while winter demand increases, the market could tighten rapidly. The interaction between refinery output and diesel export policy will therefore remain important. Restrictions on exports could increase domestic availability, while strong export demand could draw product away from the US market. Bullish Sentiment Distillate inventories remain tight: Stocks are approximately 12% below the five-year average, leaving less supply protection heading into winter. Winter demand is approaching: Seasonal heating demand is expected to increase, potentially accelerating inventory withdrawals. Middle East supply remains vulnerable: Continued attacks create the possibility of renewed disruptions to crude and refined-product flows. The Strait of Hormuz remains critical: Any disruption to the waterway could quickly increase global energy supply risk. Policy uncertainty creates upside risk: A move toward restricting US diesel exports could tighten domestic and regional supply conditions. Bearish Sentiment Heating oil has fallen for three consecutive sessions: The current price trend indicates persistent near-term selling pressure. The reported diesel export ban was denied: If US exports remain unrestricted, domestic supply could remain more readily available. Voluntary refinery curbs may be limited: Refiners may not reduce exports or production sufficiently to create a significant domestic shortage. Diplomatic progress could reduce geopolitical risk: A credible pathway toward reopening Hormuz would ease a major source of energy-market risk. Additional Middle East supply could return: Any easing of restrictions on Iranian energy exports would potentially increase global crude availability and reduce refined-product costs. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Heating oil is currently caught between improving geopolitical expectations and increasingly important physical supply risks. A sustained move below $4.70 would keep attention on whether the market can continue unwinding its geopolitical premium. Further diplomatic progress involving Iran and a credible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could reinforce that downward pressure. However, the downside could become increasingly difficult to sustain if winter demand begins drawing down already-low distillate inventories. The most important upside catalyst would be a combination of low inventories, stronger winter demand and renewed Middle East disruption. Under that scenario, heating oil could quickly regain a significant risk premium. Conversely, a clear US decision against diesel export restrictions, stronger refinery output and continued Middle East de-escalation would improve the supply outlook. Supply Outlook The US distillate market enters the winter period with inventories approximately 12% below the five-year average. This leaves the market more exposed to supply disruptions than would normally be the case. Domestic refinery production will therefore remain critical. Strong refinery runs could gradually rebuild inventories, while operational disruptions could amplify the existing deficit. US diesel export policy is another major variable. Restrictions could increase domestic availability, while continued exports would maintain the connection between US distillate prices and international demand. Middle East developments add another layer of uncertainty because disruptions to crude and refined-product transportation can affect global supply and ultimately US pricing. Demand Outlook Demand is expected to become increasingly important as the winter heating season approaches. Heating oil consumption typically strengthens during colder periods, and the existing inventory deficit means even moderate increases in demand could have a greater market impact than they would under normal stock conditions. Weather will therefore become a progressively more important price driver. Industrial and transportation demand for diesel will also influence the overall distillate balance. If economic activity remains resilient while heating demand rises, inventory pressure could increase. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Heating oil futures are currently under pressure, but the fundamental backdrop remains unusually sensitive. Traders will monitor the US government's final position on diesel exports, refinery production and the pace of inventory changes. The Middle East will remain another major catalyst. Genuine progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz could reduce supply-risk premiums, while renewed attacks or a breakdown in negotiations could reverse the recent decline quickly. The winter weather outlook will become increasingly important as well. With distillate inventories already well below normal, a sustained period of strong heating demand could expose the market to significant supply pressure. The immediate direction will therefore depend on whether geopolitical risk continues to fade faster than the winter inventory deficit tightens. Currency Hedger View Heating oil and diesel are globally traded energy products, creating significant foreign-exchange exposure for refiners, distributors, transport companies and international energy buyers. Energy prices are generally influenced by movements in the US dollar, while many companies purchase fuel in USD but generate revenue in other currencies. A change in USD exchange rates can therefore materially alter the effective local-currency cost of energy even when the underlying heating oil price is unchanged. For businesses managing international fuel purchases, combining commodity-price awareness with active FX management can help provide greater visibility over future costs. Currency Hedger provides currency exchange, international payments and managed FX solutions for businesses exposed to cross-border currency movements. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Heating oil is currently moving lower as the market prices in the possibility of improved Middle East supply conditions and uncertainty surrounding US diesel export restrictions. However, the decline needs to be viewed against a much tighter underlying inventory picture. US distillate stocks are approximately 12% below the five-year average, while the winter heating season is approaching. That combination creates an asymmetric supply risk if demand strengthens or geopolitical conditions deteriorate again. The US diesel policy debate is particularly important. A confirmed restriction on exports could increase domestic product availability, while unrestricted exports would leave US inventories more exposed to international demand. At the same time, progress involving Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could materially reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in energy prices. For the coming sessions, traders will therefore be watching US diesel policy, distillate inventories, refinery output, winter weather and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. The recent decline reflects easing supply-risk expectations, but the market remains vulnerable to a renewed price response if tight inventories meet stronger winter demand or another disruption to global energy flows. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Cotton Prices Gain as US Export Sales Surge and Global Demand Signals Strengthen

Cotton futures are finding support as stronger US export demand combines with firmer crude oil prices and improving physical-market indicators. Nearby contracts are trading higher, with October cotton around 79.51 cents per pound, December near 83.31 cents and March 2027 around 86.06 cents. The latest USDA export data provides one of the clearest supportive signals for the market. US cotton sales reached a marketing-year high of 230,517 running bales, while shipments also improved and were more than 20% above the comparable period last year. At the same time, crude oil is strengthening, which can improve the relative economics of cotton-based products while supporting broader commodity sentiment. The US dollar is also slightly firmer, creating a counterweight for US export competitiveness. The market is additionally monitoring US-China trade developments. The reported extension of the trade truce for another two months reduces some immediate uncertainty for global commodity trade, although the absence of new trade announcements means the market remains focused on actual purchasing activity rather than policy expectations. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationOct 2026 Cotton79.51¢/lbDec 2026 Cotton83.31¢/lbMar 2027 Cotton86.06¢/lbLatest US Cotton Sales230,517 RB2027/28 Sales122,994 RBUS Cotton Shipments164,704 RBShipments vs. Year Ago+20.03%Cotlook A Index93.25¢/lbICE Certified Stocks29,556 balesAdjusted World Price66.09¢/lbKey DriversExport demand, crude oil, USD, China trade and physical-market conditions Current Cotton Price Action Cotton futures are holding a firmer tone, with gains concentrated across the nearby contracts. October cotton is around 79.51 cents per pound, while December has moved to 83.31 cents and March 2027 is trading near 86.06 cents. The forward structure remains important. Later contracts are trading above the nearby October contract, reflecting expectations that the market will need to maintain adequate price incentives as traders assess future supply and demand. The latest move higher is being supported primarily by the improvement in US export demand. However, traders will continue to monitor the US dollar because a stronger dollar can make US cotton less competitive for international buyers. US Cotton Export Demand Strengthens The latest USDA export data represents one of the strongest demand signals currently available to the cotton market. US cotton sales reached 230,517 running bales, the highest level of the marketing year. Mexico was the largest buyer with 69,800 RB, while Vietnam purchased 51,200 RB. Sales for the 2027/28 marketing year reached another 122,994 RB, with Mexico accounting for 120,000 RB. The geographic distribution of forward purchases is significant because it demonstrates that international buyers are willing to secure cotton beyond the current marketing year. The increase in shipments is equally important. US cotton shipments reached 164,704 RB, up from the previous week and 20.03% above the comparable period last year. Vietnam led shipment destinations with 49,000 RB, followed by India with 32,100 RB. The combination of strong new sales and improving shipments provides the market with a more constructive demand foundation. US-China Trade Truce Remains a Key Catalyst The cotton market continues to monitor US-China trade negotiations because China remains a major participant in the global textile and agricultural commodity supply chain. No major new trade announcement has emerged from the latest discussions, but the reported extension of the existing trade truce by two months reduces the immediate risk of another escalation in tariffs or trade restrictions. For cotton, the more important question is whether improved trade relations translate into actual purchasing activity. If Chinese and other Asian textile buyers continue increasing forward commitments, US export demand could remain supportive. If trade uncertainty returns, buyers could become more cautious and delay purchases. Crude Oil Adds Support to Cotton Crude oil prices are also contributing to the more constructive commodity backdrop, with oil rising by approximately $2.60 per barrel. Higher energy prices can influence cotton through several channels. They increase transportation and manufacturing costs while also affecting the competitiveness of synthetic fibres such as polyester. When crude prices remain elevated, the relative economics of cotton compared with petroleum-derived fibres can become more supportive. However, sustained increases in energy prices can also raise costs throughout the global textile supply chain, potentially limiting end-user demand if finished-goods prices rise too quickly. US Dollar Creates a Counterweight The US dollar index is modestly higher, creating a mixed signal for cotton. A stronger dollar generally makes US agricultural commodities more expensive for international buyers using other currencies. This can eventually reduce purchasing power and limit US export competitiveness. However, the latest increase in the dollar is relatively modest compared with the strength of the export-sales data. The market will therefore be watching whether the dollar begins to strengthen significantly. A sustained dollar rally could offset some of the demand support currently coming from strong export bookings. Physical Cotton Market Shows Improving Signals Physical-market indicators are also providing additional context. The Seam reported 753 bales sold at an average price of 77.45 cents per pound, while the Cotlook A Index increased 40 points to 93.25 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks remain relatively limited at 29,556 bales. The Adjusted World Price is currently 66.09 cents per pound after declining 283 points in the latest weekly adjustment. The combination of the higher Cotlook A Index and limited certified stocks suggests that physical-market conditions remain an important factor for futures traders. Bullish Sentiment US export sales reached a marketing-year high: Sales of 230,517 RB provide a significant improvement in demand momentum. Shipments are accelerating: US cotton shipments of 164,704 RB are 20.03% above the comparable period last year. Forward demand is improving: The market has recorded 122,994 RB of sales for the 2027/28 marketing year, led by Mexico. Crude oil is strengthening: Higher energy prices can improve the relative competitiveness of cotton against petroleum-derived fibres. Physical-market indicators are firm: The Cotlook A Index has moved higher while ICE certified stocks remain limited. Trade tensions are temporarily contained: The reported extension of the US-China trade truce reduces an immediate source of uncertainty for global textile trade. Bearish Sentiment The US dollar is firmer: A stronger dollar can reduce the competitiveness of US cotton for international buyers. Trade policy remains uncertain: The current truce extension does not eliminate the possibility of renewed US-China trade tensions. Forward demand still needs confirmation: One strong export-sales report does not necessarily establish a sustained trend in global cotton consumption. High energy costs can pressure textile demand: Rising crude oil prices can increase production and transportation costs throughout the textile supply chain. The Adjusted World Price remains significantly below futures: The 66.09-cent AWP highlights the disparity between different measures of the global cotton market. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Cotton's next directional move is likely to depend heavily on whether the recent improvement in export demand continues. A sustained pace of strong US sales combined with shipments above year-ago levels would strengthen the argument that international demand is improving. Further buying from Mexico, Vietnam, China and other major textile markets would provide an additional catalyst. The December contract around 83.31 cents remains an important reference point for traders. Continued buying above this area would keep attention focused on the higher end of the recent trading range and the March 2027 contract near 86.06 cents. Conversely, a renewed strengthening of the US dollar, weaker export bookings or deterioration in global textile demand could limit the recovery. The key issue is therefore whether the latest export surge represents the beginning of a sustained improvement in demand or simply a temporary acceleration in purchasing. Supply Outlook The cotton supply outlook remains dependent on US production, global crop conditions and the pace at which available supplies enter international markets. Limited ICE certified stocks provide a supportive physical-market signal, although certified inventories represent only one portion of total available global cotton supplies. The market will continue to monitor crop development, harvest progress and producer selling as the new marketing year develops. Higher futures prices could encourage additional producer selling, potentially increasing available supplies if the rally becomes sufficiently attractive. Demand Outlook The demand picture has improved materially with the latest US export report. The combination of marketing-year-high sales, stronger shipments and significant forward bookings for 2027/28 provides evidence that international buyers remain active. Mexico is particularly important in the latest data, while Vietnam and India remain significant destinations for US cotton shipments. The sustainability of this demand will be the critical question. If textile demand improves across Asia and other major consuming regions, US exports could remain strong. China will also remain an important variable because changes in Chinese textile demand and US-China trade conditions can quickly influence global cotton flows. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cotton enters the coming sessions with a more constructive demand backdrop than the market has seen recently. Traders will focus on whether export sales remain elevated and whether shipments continue to outperform year-ago levels. Further evidence of strong international purchasing could provide additional support to futures. The US dollar remains an important risk. A significant dollar rally could make US cotton less competitive and offset some of the benefit from stronger export demand. Crude oil will also remain relevant, particularly if energy prices continue to strengthen and alter the competitive relationship between cotton and synthetic fibres. The most important near-term signal is likely to be whether the exceptional export-sales pace can continue. If it does, the market could increasingly focus on tightening availability and improving global textile demand. If sales fall back sharply, recent gains could become harder to sustain. Currency Hedger View Cotton exporters, textile manufacturers, garment producers and international commodity buyers are exposed to both cotton-price and currency risk. The latest improvement in US export demand highlights the importance of exchange rates for international cotton trade. A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost for overseas buyers, while a weaker dollar can improve the competitiveness of US-origin cotton. For businesses purchasing cotton in USD while generating revenues in another currency, currency movements can materially alter the effective cost of raw materials even when the underlying cotton price remains unchanged. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage foreign-exchange exposure through currency exchange, international payments and managed FX solutions. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Cotton is entering a more constructive phase as export demand provides the market with a tangible fundamental catalyst. The latest US sales figure of 230,517 RB represents a marketing-year high, while shipments of 164,704 RB are more than 20% above the comparable period last year. This combination suggests that international demand is currently strong enough to absorb a greater volume of US cotton. The extension of the US-China trade truce provides some additional stability, although actual purchasing activity will remain more important than diplomatic developments alone. At the same time, higher crude oil prices and firmer physical-market indicators are providing additional support. The main counterweight is the slightly stronger US dollar, which could become increasingly important if dollar strength accelerates. For the coming sessions, traders will be watching whether the exceptional export-sales pace continues, whether physical prices remain firm and whether global textile demand begins to strengthen more broadly. The market has therefore shifted from focusing primarily on supply concerns toward a more balanced question: can improving export demand continue to absorb available cotton and support higher futures prices? Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Forex Trading

September 25, 2026

Dollar Set for Second Weekly Gain

The dollar index held above 101 on Friday after rising for four straight sessions, trading at its strongest levels in nearly two months and on track to advance for the second consecutive week. The greenback strengthened as elevated oil prices and robust US economic data stoked inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may tighten policy further. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 67% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, following last week's increase. New York Fed's John Williams said the central bank still has a lot of work to do to bring inflation under control, while Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson said some modest additional policy tightening could be warranted. On the data front, US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 1,000 to a two-month low of 197,000, pointing to continued labor-market resilience. Investors now await consumer sentiment and durable goods data on Friday for further clues about the economy.

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Markets

September 25, 2026

US Cattle Prices Face Pressure as Tight Slaughter and Weak Beef Values Set Up a Volatile Market Outlook

Live cattle futures remain under pressure as softer boxed beef values and weak slaughter volumes weigh on near-term sentiment, while constrained cattle supplies continue to provide an important underlying floor. Cash cattle markets are currently developing around $348–355 dressed in the North and $222–223 live, with limited trade activity leaving the market highly sensitive to additional cash bids and offers. The balance between tight supplies and weakening wholesale beef prices is becoming increasingly important. Federally inspected slaughter is running well below both the previous week and the comparable period last year, restricting beef production even as boxed beef prices move lower. Export demand provides another important variable. US beef shipments reached a five-week high during the latest reporting period, although new sales were more moderate. The combination of restricted domestic production, export demand and softer wholesale values is likely to keep cattle markets volatile as traders assess the availability of finished cattle against consumer and export demand. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationOct 2026 Live Cattle$219.075Dec 2026 Live Cattle$221.100Feb 2027 Live Cattle$222.875Sep 2026 Feeder Cattle$337.625Oct 2026 Feeder Cattle$331.750Nov 2026 Feeder Cattle$328.075Northern Cash Cattle$348–355 dressedLive Cash Cattle$222–223CME Feeder Cattle Index$337.07Choice Boxed Beef$376.12Select Boxed Beef$352.10Weekly Slaughter389,000 headWeekly Slaughter vs. Last Year77,607 head lowerKey Market DriversTight supplies, boxed beef values, slaughter, exports and feed costs Current Live Cattle Price Action Live cattle futures are showing renewed weakness across the front contracts, with October cattle at $219.075, December at $221.100 and February 2027 at $222.875. The decline comes despite a fundamentally tight cattle supply environment. The market is therefore being pulled in two directions: limited slaughter availability is supportive for cattle prices, while weaker wholesale beef values and cautious cash-market activity are creating pressure on futures. The cash market remains particularly important. Reported dressed trade is currently concentrated around $348–355 in the North, while live transactions are being reported around $222–223. The Fed Cattle Exchange is also highlighting the lack of aggressive buying interest, with 1,696 head offered and no reported sales. A single bid was recorded at $220. Further cash-market development will be closely watched because stronger bids could reinforce the supply-tightness narrative, while additional weakness would increase pressure on nearby futures. Feeder Cattle Market Feeder cattle futures are producing a mixed picture, with September futures gaining $1.10 while later contracts are under pressure. The September contract is trading around $337.625, while October is at $331.750 and November at $328.075. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is currently at $337.07, providing an important reference point for the futures market. The premium represented by feeder cattle prices reflects the continuing scarcity of available cattle and the market's assessment of future finished-cattle values. However, feeder prices remain highly sensitive to feed costs and expectations for future fed-cattle margins. Boxed Beef Prices Add Near-Term Pressure Wholesale beef values are currently moving lower, creating a significant headwind for the cattle complex. Choice boxed beef is at $376.12, down $1.19, while Select is at $352.10, down 24 cents. The combined Choice/Select value is also lower at $24.02 in the latest report. The decline in boxed beef prices suggests that downstream demand is not currently strong enough to absorb the available product at previous price levels. For cattle futures, continued weakness in boxed beef could make packer margins and cash bids more cautious. A stabilization or recovery in wholesale values, however, would provide an important signal that demand is beginning to absorb tighter production. US Cattle Slaughter Remains Historically Tight USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at approximately 90,000 head, bringing the week-to-date total to 389,000 head. That total is 31,000 head below the previous week's level and 77,607 head below the comparable week last year. The scale of the year-on-year decline is important because fewer cattle entering the processing system restricts beef production. This creates a structural supply constraint that can support cattle prices even when wholesale beef values temporarily weaken. The market will therefore continue to monitor slaughter closely. If slaughter remains significantly below year-ago levels, the limited availability of finished cattle could eventually provide renewed support to futures. US Beef Export Demand USDA export data showed 9,397 metric tons of beef sold for 2026 delivery during the latest reporting period, alongside 60 metric tons for 2027. Shipments were considerably stronger at 12,099 metric tons, representing the highest weekly shipment level in five weeks. The difference between new sales and shipments is important. Strong shipments indicate that existing commitments are continuing to move through the supply chain, while the more moderate pace of new sales suggests buyers are not necessarily accelerating forward commitments at current prices. Export demand remains an important source of support because international buyers can absorb a significant portion of US beef production. Any sustained increase in shipments or new sales would strengthen the demand outlook. Supply Outlook The US cattle supply remains constrained, with slaughter running substantially below last year's levels. Lower slaughter reduces beef production and limits the amount of finished cattle available to packers. This provides an underlying bullish factor for live cattle even when short-term futures sentiment deteriorates. The key question is whether restricted cattle availability will eventually translate into stronger cash prices. If packers need to compete more aggressively for available cattle, cash values could strengthen and pull futures higher. However, if wholesale beef demand remains soft, packers may resist higher cattle bids despite the restricted supply base. Bullish Sentiment Cattle supplies remain tight: Slaughter is running significantly below the comparable period last year, limiting beef production. Cash cattle remain elevated: Dressed trade around $348–355 and live trade around $222–223 demonstrate that finished cattle continue to command historically strong values. Beef shipments are improving: Weekly shipments of 12,099 MT represent a five-week high, indicating that export channels remain active. Feeder cattle remain expensive: The CME Feeder Cattle Index around $337 provides evidence of continued strength in replacement cattle values. Restricted production can support prices: Persistent reductions in slaughter could eventually tighten beef availability enough to push wholesale and live cattle prices higher. Bearish Sentiment Boxed beef values are declining: Lower Choice and Select prices indicate near-term pressure in the wholesale market. Cash trading remains cautious: The lack of sales on the Fed Cattle Exchange and the single $220 bid point to limited immediate buying enthusiasm. New export sales are moderate: While shipments are strong, new sales of 9,397 MT do not indicate a major acceleration in forward demand. Futures are losing momentum: Weakness in October through February live cattle contracts indicates traders are currently reducing near-term price expectations. Feeder cattle remain vulnerable to margin pressure: High feeder prices could become increasingly difficult to sustain if finished cattle values weaken while feed costs remain elevated. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The cattle market is entering a phase where supply tightness and demand weakness are competing directly for price direction. A recovery in cash cattle toward or above the upper end of the current $348–355 dressed range could reinforce the view that tight supplies are beginning to overwhelm wholesale-market weakness. Conversely, sustained declines in Choice and Select beef values combined with weak cash bids could keep nearby futures under pressure. For feeder cattle, the relationship between the CME Feeder Cattle Index and futures will remain particularly important. A sustained premium or discount could signal changing expectations for finished-cattle values. The next major directional catalyst is therefore likely to come from the interaction between cash cattle, boxed beef demand and slaughter availability rather than from futures positioning alone. Demand Outlook Domestic beef demand remains the critical variable for determining whether tight cattle supplies translate into stronger prices. Wholesale values are currently showing some demand resistance, particularly with Choice beef moving lower. If consumers and food-service buyers absorb product at current prices, boxed beef could stabilize and improve packer economics. Export demand is also important. The latest shipment figure of 12,099 MT shows that international demand remains active, although new sales need to strengthen to create a more convincing forward-demand signal. A sustained increase in both new export sales and shipments would improve the demand outlook and potentially provide additional support to cattle futures. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cattle markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to cash trade and wholesale beef values. Traders will monitor whether cash cattle can hold around $222–223 live and $348–355 dressed, while watching for evidence that packers become more aggressive in securing limited supplies. Boxed beef prices will remain another key signal. Stabilization in Choice and Select values could help restore confidence, while further declines would increase pressure on futures. The unusually low slaughter rate remains the strongest structural support for the market. If that supply constraint persists while export shipments remain elevated, cattle could find renewed buying interest. For now, the market is caught between tight cattle supplies that limit downside potential and weaker beef values that restrict immediate upside momentum. Currency Hedger View Cattle producers, feedlots, meat processors and international beef buyers are exposed not only to cattle prices but also to currency movements. For US exporters, a stronger US dollar can make American beef more expensive for overseas buyers, potentially affecting export competitiveness. Conversely, a softer dollar can improve the relative pricing of US beef in international markets and support export demand. International buyers also face additional currency exposure when purchasing US-denominated beef. Managing USD exposure alongside commodity-price risk can therefore become increasingly important when cattle prices and exchange rates are both volatile. Currency Hedger provides businesses with access to currency exchange, international payments and managed FX solutions designed to help manage foreign-exchange exposure around international transactions. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets The US cattle market remains fundamentally constrained by tight supplies, but the immediate price direction is increasingly dependent on demand. The substantial year-on-year reduction in slaughter provides an important underlying support factor, while the five-week high in beef shipments confirms that export channels remain active. However, lower boxed beef prices and limited cash-market buying interest are preventing that supply tightness from translating directly into stronger futures. The next phase of the market will therefore depend on whether cash cattle can stabilize, whether wholesale beef values recover and whether export demand continues to absorb US production. With supply structurally tight, any improvement in beef demand could quickly become significant for prices. Until that occurs, cattle futures may continue to experience volatility as traders balance restricted production against softer wholesale-market signals. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Soybeans Hold Near $13.17 as China Buying Supports Prices While US Export Demand Weakens

Soybean prices are holding relatively steady as fresh Chinese buying provides a measure of support, while the latest US export data points to a significant slowdown in broader international demand. The market is also monitoring the pace of the US harvest, with slower field progress tightening nearby supplies for crushers and supporting soybean meal values. November 2026 soybeans are around $13.17½ per bushel, while January 2027 futures are near $13.32 and March 2027 around $13.39¾. Nearby cash soybeans are approximately $12.59. The soybean complex remains divided. Fresh Chinese purchases provide a constructive demand signal, but total US soybean export sales have fallen to a 12-week low, while soybean meal demand is showing a more mixed picture. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalNovember 2026 Soybeans$13.17½/bushelNearby Cash Soybeans$12.59/bushelJanuary 2027 Soybeans$13.32/bushelMarch 2027 Soybeans$13.39¾/bushelNew China Sale120,000 MTWeekly US Soybean Sales582,432 MTTrade Expectations1.5–2.0 MMTWeekly Sales Ranking12-week lowSales vs Same Week Last Year-19.6%China Purchases311,800 MTJapan Purchases66,000 MTNetherlands Purchases59,700 MT2026/27 Soymeal Sales245,984 MTSoybean Meal Estimate250,000–375,000 MTHarvestSlower start tightening nearby suppliesSoybean OilMixed demand signal Current Soybean Price Action Soybean futures are showing limited movement, with November 2026 beans around $13.17½, January 2027 near $13.32 and March 2027 around $13.39¾. Nearby cash soybeans are holding around $12.59, while soybean meal is gaining support from tighter nearby availability as the US harvest gets off to a slower start. Soybean oil is weaker, creating a mixed signal across the crush complex. The market is therefore balancing a supportive physical market against disappointing export demand. China Buying Provides an Important Demand Signal USDA has reported a private sale of 120,000 MT of 2026/27 soybeans to China, providing a fresh indication that Chinese buyers continue to source US beans despite broader uncertainty surrounding US-China trade. China also accounted for 311,800 MT of the latest weekly soybean purchases, making it the largest buyer in the report. These purchases are important because China remains one of the most influential participants in the global soybean market. However, the market needs to see whether Chinese buying accelerates beyond isolated transactions and translates into a sustained increase in US export commitments. US Soybean Export Sales Fall to a 12-Week Low The latest export data provides a clear bearish signal. US soybean sales for the relevant week totalled just 582,432 MT, significantly below the expected 1.5–2.0 MMT range. The figure represents a 12-week low and is 19.6% below the comparable week last year. China accounted for 311,800 MT, while Japan purchased 66,000 MT and the Netherlands bought 59,700 MT. The combination of fresh Chinese buying and weak total sales suggests that demand is still present but not broad enough to generate a strong overall export momentum signal. Slower Harvest Tightens Nearby Supplies The slower start to the US soybean harvest is creating tighter nearby availability for crushers and supporting soybean meal. This is an important development because the soybean market is not being driven exclusively by export demand. Domestic processors are also competing for available beans, particularly where harvest deliveries are slower than expected. Tighter nearby supplies could support basis levels and crush margins if the harvest remains delayed. However, as harvest activity accelerates, the availability of new-crop beans could increase rapidly and potentially reduce some of the current tightness. Soybean Meal Demand Remains Close to Expectations Soybean meal sales for the current marketing year reached 60,667 MT, while 2026/27 sales totalled 245,984 MT. The 2026/27 figure is slightly below the expected 250,000–375,000 MT range. Nevertheless, tighter nearby bean availability is helping support meal values, particularly in the front month. The next phase of the meal market will depend on whether stronger physical demand can offset the effects of increased soybean availability as harvest progresses. Soybean Oil Provides a Mixed Signal Soybean oil sales remain relatively limited, with reported sales of 1,631 MT for 2025/26 and just 86 MT for 2026/27. That compares with expectations ranging from net reductions of 2,000 MT to net sales of 6,500 MT. The weaker oil demand signal limits the amount of support coming from the broader soybean crush complex. Bullish Sentiment Fresh Chinese buying: A new 120,000 MT sale to China confirms continued demand for US soybeans. China remains the largest buyer: China purchased 311,800 MT in the latest report, accounting for more than half of total weekly sales. Slower harvest tightens nearby supplies: Delayed harvest activity is limiting immediate availability for crushers. Soybean meal remains supported: Tighter nearby bean supplies are supporting meal availability and pricing. US-China trade truce extended: A reported two-month extension reduces the immediate risk of a sharp deterioration in trade conditions. Cash prices remain firm: Nearby cash beans around $12.59 are holding relatively stable despite weak overall export sales. Bearish Sentiment Export sales significantly miss expectations: The latest 582,432 MT is far below the 1.5–2.0 MMT expected range. Sales fall to a 12-week low: The latest figure signals a substantial slowdown in overall US export demand. Year-over-year sales are weaker: Weekly sales are 19.6% below the comparable period last year. Soybean oil demand is limited: New-crop oil sales remain very small, reducing support from the crush complex. Harvest acceleration could loosen supply: As field activity increases, additional new-crop beans could reduce the current tightness facing crushers. Trade uncertainty remains: Although the truce is being extended, the absence of new agricultural trade announcements leaves longer-term China demand uncertain. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Soybeans remain caught between a supportive nearby physical market and weaker export demand. The key question is whether Chinese purchases can accelerate enough to offset the broader slowdown in US export sales. A continuation of direct Chinese buying, combined with a slower harvest and firm domestic crush demand, could keep prices supported around current levels. Conversely, if harvest activity accelerates while export sales remain well below expectations, the additional supply could increase pressure on futures. The $13.17½ area in November 2026 soybeans remains an important near-term reference. Sustained buying above this region would keep the market focused on demand and supply tightness, while continued weakness could expose prices to further downside. Supply Outlook The immediate supply picture is being influenced by the pace of the US harvest. A slower start is temporarily restricting supplies available to crushers, helping support soybean meal and nearby cash values. However, this situation can change quickly if favourable weather accelerates fieldwork. Increased harvest deliveries would improve physical availability and could reduce the premium currently being attached to nearby beans. Demand Outlook Soybean demand is increasingly divided between China, the broader export market and domestic crushing. China's 311,800 MT of purchases and the separate 120,000 MT sale provide evidence of continued Chinese demand. However, total weekly sales of only 582,432 MT show that demand outside those purchases remains less convincing. Domestic crushing provides another source of demand, particularly while nearby supplies remain tight. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Soybeans are likely to remain sensitive to the balance between Chinese buying, US harvest progress and export demand. The next major signal will be whether Chinese purchases continue at a meaningful pace. Additional sales could help counter the weakness in total export commitments. At the same time, traders will monitor harvest progress closely. Faster field activity could ease nearby supply tightness and increase pressure on futures, while continued delays could support cash and meal markets. The soybean complex therefore remains finely balanced: China is providing important demand, but overall US export sales remain significantly weaker than expected. Currency Hedger View Soybeans are traded globally in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of the final cost for international buyers. A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of US soybeans and potentially reduce demand, while a weaker dollar can improve US export competitiveness. For agricultural importers, processors and feed businesses exposed to USD purchases, managing the currency component alongside soybean-price exposure can improve visibility over future costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure through FX solutions, forward requirements and market analysis. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Soybeans are currently being pulled in two directions. Fresh Chinese buying is providing a clear demand signal, while total US export sales have fallen to a 12-week low and remain significantly below expectations. The slower US harvest is adding another supportive element by tightening nearby supplies for crushers and supporting soybean meal. However, this support could diminish quickly if harvest activity accelerates. The key issue for the coming sessions is whether Chinese buying develops into sustained demand or remains concentrated in individual purchases. At the same time, traders will be watching harvest progress for evidence that physical supply is becoming more readily available. For now, the soybean market remains supported by Chinese demand and nearby supply tightness, but the weak overall export-sales picture limits the strength of the bullish case. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Gold Heads for Weekly Drop

Gold traded around $4,270 an ounce on Friday and was on track to decline more than 2% for the week, pressured by a stronger dollar and surging Treasury yields as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further to curb inflation. On Thursday, the 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since 2007 and 2004, respectively, while the dollar climbed to a near two-month high. The moves came as stronger-than-expected US economic data and elevated oil prices fueled concerns over persistent inflation and higher interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 67% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, following the first increase in three years last week. Meanwhile, oil prices retreated on reports that the US and Iran were considering a phased agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a US blockade on Iranian ports.

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Wheat Prices Under Pressure as Weak US Export Demand and Expanding Rainfall Weigh on the Outlook

Wheat prices remain under pressure as disappointing US export demand combines with a wetter weather pattern across parts of the Southern Plains. The latest export data points to a significant slowdown in international buying, while incoming rainfall is improving soil moisture in several dry production areas but could also slow planting progress. December 2026 Chicago SRW wheat is around $7.07 per bushel, while March 2027 is near $7.21½. December 2026 KC HRW wheat is around $7.67, while December Minneapolis spring wheat is near $7.20¼. The market is currently balancing weak demand against weather developments that could improve crop conditions in some areas while creating short-term planting delays. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember 2026 CBOT Wheat$7.07/bushelMarch 2027 CBOT Wheat$7.21½/bushelDecember 2026 KC HRW$7.67/bushelMarch 2027 KC HRW$7.79½/bushelDecember 2026 Minneapolis Wheat$7.20¼/bushelMarch 2027 Minneapolis Wheat$7.41¼/bushelUS Wheat Export Sales267,553 MTTrade Expectations350,000–600,000 MTSales vs Same Week Last Year-50.44%Marketing-Year Ranking4th-lowest totalLargest BuyerMexico – 113,400 MTJapan Purchases87,600 MTVietnam Purchases60,000 MT7-Day Rainfall Outlook2–4 inchesMain Rainfall AreaTexas Panhandle to Nebraska Current Wheat Price Action Wheat futures are showing broad-based weakness across the major US contracts. December 2026 Chicago SRW wheat is around $7.07, with March 2027 near $7.21½. KC HRW December futures are trading around $7.67, while Minneapolis December spring wheat is near $7.20¼. The Minneapolis market is showing the strongest pressure, reflecting heightened sensitivity to planting conditions and regional supply expectations. The weakness is being driven primarily by disappointing export demand, while the improving moisture outlook across the Southern Plains is adding another layer of pressure where drought concerns had previously supported prices. US Wheat Export Demand Drops Sharply The latest USDA Export Sales report provides a significant bearish signal. US wheat sales reached only 267,553 MT, well below the expected range of 350,000–600,000 MT. The figure is also 50.44% below the comparable week last year and represents the fourth-lowest weekly total of the current marketing year. Mexico remains the largest buyer with 113,400 MT, followed by Japan at 87,600 MT and Vietnam at 60,000 MT. While the presence of several major buyers provides evidence of continuing international demand, the overall volume indicates that US wheat is currently struggling to maintain the pace required to support stronger prices. The market will therefore need to see a meaningful improvement in upcoming export commitments before demand becomes a stronger bullish catalyst. Rainfall Improves Soil Moisture Across the Southern Plains The next seven days are expected to bring approximately 2 to 4 inches of rainfall from the Texas Panhandle through Nebraska. For areas experiencing dry conditions, the additional moisture could improve soil conditions and support early crop development. However, excessive rainfall can also slow planting progress and create logistical difficulties. The market will therefore be watching the distribution and duration of the rainfall rather than simply the headline precipitation totals. If moisture arrives in areas where it is most needed without causing significant planting disruption, the longer-term impact could be supportive for production. If rainfall delays fieldwork substantially, the short-term market reaction could become more complicated. Chicago SRW Wheat December Chicago SRW wheat is around $7.07, down approximately 1½ cents, while March 2027 is near $7.21½, down around 2¾ cents. Chicago wheat remains highly sensitive to global export competition, US demand and developments across the Black Sea region. With US export sales currently weak, the market needs stronger international buying to offset competition from other major exporters. KC HRW Wheat December KC HRW wheat is around $7.67, while March 2027 is near $7.79½. The Southern Plains rainfall outlook is particularly relevant to HRW wheat because the region is a major source of hard red winter wheat production. Improving soil moisture could improve crop establishment and reduce weather-related production risk, although excessive rainfall or planting delays could eventually offset some of those benefits. Minneapolis Spring Wheat December Minneapolis spring wheat is around $7.20¼, with March 2027 near $7.41¼. The Minneapolis market is showing greater downside pressure than Chicago and Kansas City wheat. Planting and growing conditions remain important drivers, with the latest rainfall outlook providing both a potential production benefit and a short-term fieldwork risk. Bullish Sentiment Rainfall could create planting delays: Heavy precipitation from the Texas Panhandle through Nebraska could slow fieldwork and affect planting schedules. US export prices could become more competitive: Continued price weakness may eventually stimulate additional international buying. Mexico remains an active buyer: Mexico purchased 113,400 MT, demonstrating continuing demand for US wheat. Japan and Vietnam remain engaged: Purchases of 87,600 MT and 60,000 MT respectively show that US wheat continues to attract international buyers. Soil moisture remains uneven: While rainfall is beneficial in dry areas, some regions may still require additional moisture or favourable weather during crop establishment. Lower prices can encourage demand: Sustained weakness could improve the competitiveness of US wheat against alternative origins. Bearish Sentiment Export sales are significantly below expectations: The latest 267,553 MT figure falls well below the 350,000–600,000 MT expected range. Sales are down sharply year over year: Current weekly sales are 50.44% below the comparable period last year. Weakest demand in the marketing year: The latest figure is the fourth-lowest weekly total of the current marketing year. Improving soil moisture can support production: Beneficial rainfall could reduce production risk across dry portions of the Southern Plains. Global export competition remains intense: US wheat must compete with other major exporting origins for international demand. Broad-based technical weakness: Chicago, KC HRW and Minneapolis wheat are all under pressure, suggesting weakness is not confined to a single wheat class. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Wheat remains vulnerable to further selling while export demand stays below expectations. The immediate question is whether the latest weak sales figure represents a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a more persistent reduction in US export demand. Weather provides the main potential counterweight. Rainfall that significantly delays planting or creates production concerns could generate support, while well-timed moisture that improves crop establishment would reinforce the bearish supply outlook. The $7.07 area in December 2026 Chicago wheat remains an important near-term reference. A sustained recovery would require evidence of stronger demand or increasing production risk, while continued weak exports could leave prices exposed to further downside. Supply Outlook The Southern Plains moisture outlook is becoming an important supply variable. Rainfall of 2–4 inches could improve soil moisture across areas that have been relatively dry, potentially supporting winter wheat establishment. However, the market will be watching whether precipitation becomes excessive enough to delay planting. The timing of rainfall is particularly important because moisture arriving at the right stage can improve crop prospects, while persistent wet conditions can interfere with field operations. Demand Outlook US wheat demand is currently the main weakness. The latest 267,553 MT in export sales is well below expectations and approximately half the level recorded during the comparable period last year. Mexico remains a significant buyer, while Japan and Vietnam are also purchasing US wheat. However, the overall pace of sales needs to improve before international demand can provide a stronger foundation for prices. Future export sales will therefore be one of the most important indicators for the wheat market. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Wheat is entering the next phase with weak export demand and changing US weather conditions pulling the market in opposite directions. The rainfall outlook from the Texas Panhandle through Nebraska could provide much-needed moisture and improve crop prospects, but traders will monitor whether it also creates meaningful planting delays. The next export sales reports will be equally important. A continuation of weak bookings would reinforce pressure on prices, while a sharp recovery in international buying could help stabilise the market. For now, demand remains the dominant bearish factor, while weather-related planting risk represents the principal source of potential upside volatility. Currency Hedger View Wheat is traded internationally in US dollars, meaning currency movements directly influence the cost of US-origin wheat for overseas buyers. A stronger dollar can raise the local-currency cost of wheat imports and reduce the competitiveness of US supplies, while a weaker dollar can improve purchasing conditions for international buyers. For grain importers, food manufacturers and agricultural businesses with USD exposure, managing currency risk alongside commodity-price risk can provide greater certainty over future purchasing costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure through FX solutions, forward requirements and market analysis. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Wheat remains under pressure because the latest export data provides little evidence of an immediate improvement in US international demand. The 267,553 MT sales figure is particularly significant because it is both well below expectations and more than 50% below the comparable period last year. Weather provides the main counterbalance. The incoming rainfall could improve soil moisture across the Southern Plains and support winter wheat establishment, but excessive precipitation could slow planting and create short-term uncertainty. The market therefore needs to see stronger export demand or a meaningful deterioration in production conditions to establish a sustained recovery. The coming sessions should focus on US wheat export sales, rainfall distribution, planting progress, global export competition and crop-condition developments. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 25, 2026

WTI drops to near $92.50 on potential US-Iran deal

WTI falls as Qatari-mediated US-Iran talks sparked hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran demanded a blockade end, while the White House noted little pressure to negotiate despite open dialogue. Oil prices may rebound after Saudi Arabia intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles targeting major regional cities. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after two days of gains, trading around $92.60 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices depreciated amid reports that the United States (US) and Iran were considering a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a US blockade on Iranian ports. Mediated by Qatari officials, these efforts to reach a breakthrough were reportedly underway on the sidelines of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly. Despite these talks, both nations maintained firm positions. Iran insisted on retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, refusing any agreement unless the US eases military pressure and lifts the port blockade. Meanwhile, a White House official stated that President Donald Trump remained open to discussions, though he emphasized that the US felt little pressure to negotiate given its strong position following the sanctions campaign. However, oil prices may soon rebound as Middle East tensions continue to escalate. Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen recently launched missiles targeting Saudi cities, including Yanbu and Taif. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen confirmed that Saudi Arabia intercepted six of these ballistic missiles. US energy surplus cushions manufacturers from Strait of Hormuz risks Analysts at ING warn that “restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about energy shortages, higher prices and potential production disruption for manufacturers globally.” However, they argue that the US is “better positioned to manage those challenges than European and Asian competitors,” noting that the country “produces more energy than it consumes,” which offers a meaningful buffer against supply disruptions and price spikes affecting international peers.

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Markets

September 25, 2026

Corn Prices Face Fresh Pressure as Weak US Export Sales and Heavy Rainfall Cloud the Outlook

Corn futures are facing renewed pressure as weaker-than-expected US export sales combine with a wetter weather pattern across a large part of the central US. The market is also monitoring US-China trade developments, although the latest discussions have yet to produce significant new agricultural trade signals. December 2026 corn is trading around $5.27½ per bushel, while nearby cash corn is around $4.83¾. March 2027 futures are near $5.41½, with May 2027 around $5.48¼. The latest export data provides a near-term bearish signal, with weekly corn sales coming in close to the bottom of market expectations. At the same time, rainfall across the Plains and Midwest could affect harvest conditions and near-term fieldwork, keeping weather firmly in focus. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember 2026 Corn$5.27½/bushelNearby Cash Corn$4.83¾/bushelMarch 2027 Corn$5.41½/bushelMay 2027 Corn$5.48¼/bushelUS Corn Export Sales838,328 MTTrade Expectations0.8–1.4 MMTSales vs Previous Week-18.3%Sales vs Same Week Last YearLess than halfTop BuyerJapan – 247,000 MTMexico Purchases211,000 MTColombia Purchases201,300 MTCentral US Rainfall Outlook1–4 inchesHeaviest Rainfall AreasNE, IA, MO and KSUS-China Trade TruceReportedly extended by 2 months Current Corn Price Action Corn futures remain under pressure, with losses extending across the forward curve. December 2026 corn is around $5.27½, while March 2027 is near $5.41½ and May 2027 around $5.48¼. Nearby cash corn is approximately $4.83¾, highlighting continued pressure across both futures and physical markets. The latest weakness reflects a combination of disappointing export demand and concerns that widespread rainfall could slow harvesting and field operations. However, weather-related delays can also create uncertainty around crop quality and final production, meaning the impact of rainfall is not necessarily one-directional. US Export Demand Falls Short of Expectations The latest US Export Sales data is providing one of the clearest bearish signals for corn. US sales reached 838,328 MT, only slightly above the bottom of the expected 0.8–1.4 MMT range. The figure was also 18.3% below the previous week and less than half the volume recorded during the comparable period last year. Japan was the largest buyer with 247,000 MT, followed by Mexico at 211,000 MT and Colombia at 201,300 MT. The geographical spread of demand remains encouraging, but the overall volume raises questions about the pace of US export commitments. The market will now need to see whether subsequent weekly sales can accelerate enough to compensate for the current shortfall. Wet Weather Moves Into Focus The next seven days are expected to bring a wet pattern across the central third of the United States. Rainfall totals of approximately 1 to 4 inches are anticipated from the Plains through Indiana, with the heaviest precipitation expected across Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri and Kansas. For corn, the immediate market question is how the rainfall affects harvest progress and field conditions. Heavy precipitation can delay fieldwork, increase logistical difficulties and potentially create concerns about crop quality if wet conditions persist. However, if the crop remains in good condition and moisture does not create significant harvest losses, the weather could ultimately have a limited impact on total production. The market will therefore be watching actual harvest progress rather than rainfall totals alone. US-China Trade Truce Provides a Partial Buffer US-China trade relations remain an important variable for agricultural commodities. The latest information indicates that the existing trade truce is being extended for another two months, reducing the immediate risk of a sharp deterioration in bilateral trade conditions. However, the absence of significant new agricultural trade announcements means the market still lacks a fresh demand catalyst from China. Any progress that increases expectations for US agricultural purchases could provide support to corn and other grains. Conversely, continued uncertainty could keep buyers cautious. Bullish Sentiment Heavy rainfall could disrupt harvest activity: Persistent wet conditions across major producing states may delay fieldwork and create logistical challenges. Potential crop-quality concerns: Extended wet conditions during harvest could increase concerns around quality and field losses. Mexico remains an important buyer: Mexico purchased 211,000 MT, demonstrating continued demand for US corn. Japan demand remains substantial: Japan purchased 247,000 MT, providing evidence of active international buying. Trade truce extension reduces immediate downside risk: Maintaining the US-China truce for another two months limits the prospect of an immediate deterioration in trade relations. Lower prices could stimulate demand: Continued weakness in corn prices could eventually encourage additional international and domestic purchasing. Bearish Sentiment Export sales are weak: Weekly sales of 838,328 MT are near the bottom of expectations and materially below the comparable period last year. Weekly sales momentum is deteriorating: Current sales are 18.3% below the previous week, suggesting near-term export demand is not accelerating. Large US supply remains a concern: A substantial crop could keep domestic availability comfortable even if demand improves. Rainfall can be bearish if production remains intact: If moisture delays harvest without materially reducing yields, the market could continue to price ample supply. Limited new China demand: The trade truce extension has not yet produced a significant new agricultural buying catalyst. Technical pressure remains: December futures have slipped toward $5.27½, keeping the market vulnerable to additional selling if demand indicators fail to improve. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Corn is approaching a critical period where export demand and harvest-weather developments will determine whether prices stabilise or extend their decline. A sustained period of heavy rainfall that materially delays harvest or raises concerns about crop quality could provide support. Stronger export bookings, particularly from major international buyers, would reinforce that effect. On the other hand, if harvest progresses despite the wet conditions and export sales remain close to the lower end of expectations, the market could remain under pressure. The $5.27½ area in December 2026 corn is an important near-term reference. Traders will be watching whether this level attracts fresh commercial demand or whether continued weak export data leaves the contract vulnerable to further downside. Supply Outlook The immediate US supply outlook remains centred on harvest progress. The wet weather pattern across Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and surrounding areas could slow fieldwork, but the eventual supply impact will depend on how long the wet conditions persist and whether they affect crop quality or harvested yields. The market therefore needs to distinguish between a temporary harvest delay and a genuine reduction in available production. Demand Outlook Demand is currently the weaker component of the corn balance. The latest 838,328 MT in export sales falls near the bottom of expectations and is significantly below the comparable period last year. Japan, Mexico and Colombia remain important buyers, but the market needs broader acceleration in export commitments to establish a stronger demand signal. US ethanol consumption also remains an important domestic demand component, while any improvement in US-China agricultural trade could provide another source of upside demand. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Corn prices are likely to remain sensitive to the interaction between US harvest weather and export demand. The central US rainfall pattern could create short-term volatility as traders assess whether wet conditions are simply delaying harvest or beginning to threaten crop quality and final supply. At the same time, the next export sales reports will be closely watched for evidence that international demand is recovering from the current slowdown. The extension of the US-China trade truce provides some stability, but without significant new agricultural purchasing, the market is likely to remain focused on traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals. For now, the combination of weak export sales and a potentially large US crop remains a headwind, while adverse harvest conditions and stronger future demand provide the principal sources of upside risk. Currency Hedger View Corn is priced internationally in US dollars, making exchange rates an important part of the cost structure for international buyers, food producers and agricultural businesses. A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of US corn and potentially reduce purchasing demand, while a weaker dollar can improve the competitiveness of US-origin grain. For businesses exposed to USD-denominated commodity purchases, managing the currency component alongside the underlying corn price can provide greater visibility over future costs. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure through FX solutions, forward requirements and market analysis. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Corn remains caught between two competing forces. Weak export sales are creating immediate demand pressure, while the developing rainfall pattern across the central US introduces uncertainty around harvest timing and potentially crop quality. The 838,328 MT export figure is particularly important because it sits close to the bottom of market expectations and is substantially below the comparable period last year. That suggests the market needs stronger sales in the coming weeks to rebuild confidence in the export outlook. Weather could provide a counterweight if rainfall becomes disruptive enough to delay harvest or affect quality. However, traders will need evidence of a genuine supply impact before assigning a sustained weather premium. The coming sessions should therefore focus on harvest progress, rainfall accumulation, weekly export sales and developments in US-China agricultural trade. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Banks

September 24, 2026

Mexican Peso: Downward momentum returns after 200-DMA break – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts, including Kenneth Broux, note that USD/MXN has broken above a multi-month descending trend line and reclaimed its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025. They see scope for a broader uptrend if the pair holds above 17.40/17.35, with hurdles at the June peak near 17.68 and projections around 17.80. Peso under pressure as carry fades "USD/MXN recently broke above a multi-month descending trend line and has now reclaimed the 200-DMA. The pair has moved above this average for the first time since April 2025, suggesting that upward momentum may be returning." "A broader uptrend could gradually develop if it maintains above the 200-DMA (17.40/17.35). The next potential hurdles are located at the June peak near 17.68 and projections around 17.80." "In LatAm, we expect Banxico to leave the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% today. Policymakers are likely to retain a data-dependent message, balancing a gradually improving core inflation backdrop and softer growth momentum against a more challenging external environment marked by higher US rates and lingering global uncertainty." "Our base case remains that Banxico decouples from the Fed and stays on hold not only today but through the remainder of 2026, allowing the Banxico-Fed policy rate spread, currently around 250bp, to narrow further over time." "Speculative investors have remained long MXN for a while now with net long 27.5% of open interest just prior to the Fed/BoJ meetings – that said a sharp surge in USD/MXN break over 200dma to 17.50 is suggestive of potential capitulation of peso longs."

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Banks

September 24, 2026

US Dollar: Rally starting to look stretched – ING

ING’s FX Strategist Francesco Pesole notes the Dollar has jumped, with DXY above 101.0, supported by strong US PMIs, higher Oil and soft risk sentiment, but now looks stretched versus fundamentals. He highlights upside risks if US data surprise and the Federal Reserve is repriced for an October hike, while also flagging USD/JPY intervention risks and a potential DXY correction back toward 100–100.5. Upside risks but correction eyed "The dollar jumped yesterday, with DXY breaking above 101.0. Very strong US PMIs, higher oil prices and soft risk sentiment have all contributed to the bullish narrative, although the move is starting to look stretched relative to fundamentals." "We are cautious in calling for a bottom in the dollar just yet because any upside surprise in upcoming US data releases can easily prompt markets to fully price in an October Fed hike and prop up short-term rates even more. But if this risk doesn’t materialise, we expect a correction in DXY in the coming weeks, with a return to the 100-100.5 area." "USD/JPY remains another source of potential downside risk for the dollar. The rapid rally in the pair may draw Japanese authorities to intervene – remember last week’s reported rate check – and that could easily spill over into a weaker USD across the board." "Without any intervention, a return to above 160.0 levels looks inevitable after the dovish surprise by the Bank of Japan last week." "Today, focus will be on the summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. There is a history of Trump striking a more conciliatory tone in face-to-face events, and Scott Bessent has already announced an extension of the trade truce by two months." "Fedspeak also remains firmly on investors’ radar, with Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson all due to deliver remarks today. The data calendar is quiet."

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Banks

September 24, 2026

Swiss Franc: SNB intervention bias dialed down – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note that EUR/CHF has rebounded about 0.3% after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left rates at 0.0% but softened its FX intervention language. The bank now signals it is only willing to be active as necessary, with inflation forecasts around 0.7–0.8% through 2028 and a widening rate differential versus the Eurozone expected over the next three months. Franc overvaluation allows SNB retreat "SNB unchanged at 0.0%, monetary policy appropriate but tweaks intervention language in statement, replaces "increased willingness to intervene" by "also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary". EUR/CHF +0.3%." "It is a more nuanced story for EUR/CHF where the rebound of 0.3% this morning (bullish outside day) follows the decision by the SNB to drop the alert level on intervention." "It replaced "increased willingness to intervene" from the June statement by "also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary"." "Put differently, the path of Swissie appreciation and overvaluation has turned to the extent where the central bank can back off." "Average annual inflation is forecast at 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028. That’s over 1pp below the ECB. The rate differential with the eurozone is set to widen by another 25bp in the next three months."

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Banks

September 24, 2026

Euro: Downside risks start to shrink against US Dollar – ING

Francesco Pesole at ING argues EUR/USD’s break below 1.140 has pushed the pair into stretched undervaluation versus their short-term fair value model, as rate differentials moved in favour of the Euro. While the Dollar-driven move and lack of nearby technical support keep catching a falling knife risky, ING expects eventual convergence toward the 1.1430–1.1450 area rather than new lows. Undervaluation and limited new lows "The break below 1.140 in EUR/USD has sent the pair into stretched undervaluation territory according to our short-term fair value model. That’s because short-term rate differentials actually moved in favour of the euro, offsetting the negative impact on fair value from lower equities and oil." "The move was entirely dollar-driven. PMIs also surprised on the upside in the eurozone, with services rising sharply, which marginally helped the euro in some crosses." "The lack of clear technical support in EUR/USD until the June lows, where intraday spot hit 1.1325-30, means catching the falling knife remains risky for now. However, we don’t see the conditions for a break into new lows just yet unless the short-term rate differential widens in favour of USD." "A 1.1430-1.1450 level would be more in line with the current environment. So we’d expect a convergence to that area ultimately."

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Banks

September 24, 2026

US Dollar: Higher yields support currency – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar (USD) is strengthening as US fixed income sells off, driving global bond weakness and higher yields across the curve. A poor 5-year UST auction and strong US and global PMIs are reinforcing hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric. Rising Brent Oil and potential US diesel export bans add to inflation risks, supporting the Dollar and threatening carry trades in a low FX volatility environment. Dollar benefits from yield surge "The US dollar has advanced further with the sell-off in US fixed income leading the way for global bond markets. A number of factors came together to reinforce the recent negative sentiment. The move has the hallmarks of a pain trade and forced selling by investors at these more elevated levels and could have further to run." "The worsening fixed income sentiment was reinforced by a poor 5-year UST bond auction yesterday. The USD 70bn worth of bonds sold at a yield of 5.033%, the highest level since June 2006. The bid-to-cover was 2.21, lower than the 6mth average of 2.33." "Both the Manufacturing and Services PMIs for September surged which will encourage the Fed to maintain the current hawkish rhetoric. The strength wasn’t US specific either with the data stronger than expected in Europe as well. The Global Composite PMI increased to 58.4 in September, the highest level since July 2021." "That leaves FX more vulnerable to a carry unwind given how well these trades have done in this incredible low FX vol environment. Periods of low FX volatility always end with a bang and current market conditions are certainly consistent with an increased risk of that scenario materialising. High yielders across EM would suffer most while the yen and Swiss franc would outperform."

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Banks

September 24, 2026

Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Mauricio Une and Renan Alves note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 25 bps and signaled a more restrictive stance, while Copom cut the Selic rate to 13.75%. The Brazilian Real (BRL) weakened slightly to BRL 5.1462 per USD but still outperformed most emerging peers. Rabobank expects a narrower rate differential and a stronger Dollar to push USD/BRL toward 5.35 by year-end. Real outlook tied to rate spreads "Externally, in the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25 bps and signaled a more restrictive monetary policy path to contain second-round inflationary effects. However, Rabobank believes that the stagflationary shock makes a single rate hike the more likely outcome, with any additional increase contingent on developments in the Middle East and the resilience of the U.S. economy." "The Brazilian real closed the previous week at BRL 5.1462 per USD, implying a 0.49% depreciation against the U.S. dollar over the week, ranking as the ninth-best performance among 24 emerging-market currencies." "Given expectations of a narrower interest rate differential between Brazil and advanced economies throughout 2026, together with a potential global recovery of the U.S. dollar amid a fragile domestic fiscal backdrop in an election year, we expect the exchange rate to end the year at BRL 5.35 per USD."

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Forex Trading

September 24, 2026

Trade of The Day – USD/CHF

Facts: USDCHF is trading above the 100-period moving average from D1 interval The pair bounced off the horizontal support area 0.8180 - 0.8205 Recommendation: Trade: Long position on USDCHF at market price Target: 0.8358 Stop: 0.8150 Opinion: USDCHF has been trading in an upward move recently. Looking at the pair at the D1 interval, one can see that the pair broke above the horizontal resistance area 0.8180 - 0.8205, which acts as a support now. Following a local downward correction, the pair rebounded from the aforementioned area and bullish candlestick appeared on the chart. According to the classics of technical analysis, the main sentiment remains bullish and continuation of the upward move looks to be the base case scenario for now. We recommend going long USDCHF at market price with a target of 0.8358. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 0.8150. Source: xStation5

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Energies

September 24, 2026

Chart of the Day: OIL Returns to Gains. U.S.–Iran Talks Remain Deadlocked

Brent crude futures ( OIL ) are rising today following the contract rollover and are gradually moving back toward the $100 per barrel area. Talks between the U.S. side and the Iranian delegation failed to produce any breakthrough, while Tehran, in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly presented a highly demanding set of conditions to Washington, including a very large compensation package related to the military operation. According to U.S. officials cited by Yonhap, the United States directly rejected Iran’s terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump reportedly rejected the proposal after indirect talks in which Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in one room, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was in another, with Qatari mediators shuttling between the two sides. Iran reportedly demanded $300 billion in compensation from the United States. Tehran also sought the full lifting of U.S. sanctions and the release of $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Other conditions reportedly included ending the U.S. naval blockade and withdrawing U.S. troops from the region. Iran also demanded a regional ceasefire covering, among other areas, Lebanon and Gaza, which would likely require consultation between the U.S. and Israel. The rejection of these terms suggests that the gap between Washington and Tehran remains wide, particularly over sanctions, the U.S. military presence in the region and the conditions required to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. OIL chart (H1 and D1 timeframes) Source: xStation5 Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 24, 2026

XAG/USD falls to near $64.00 amid rising Fed rate hike odds

Strong US manufacturing PMI data and rising Treasury yields are placing heavy downward pressure on Silver. Odds of an October Fed rate hike jumped to 69.7%, driven by hawkish official commentary and inflation concerns. Rising crude oil prices and Middle East geopolitical tensions further reinforce expectations for prolonged monetary tightening. Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $64.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Silver faces increased downward pressure as both the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields surge, driven by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and resilient domestic economic indicators. The latest Flash US S&P Global PMI data for September highlighted this momentum, showing manufacturing expanding faster than expected at 52.0 and helping offset slight pullbacks in services and composite activity. Following these economic signals, market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in October surged to nearly 69.7%, up sharply from 48.7% last week. Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, while several Fed officials have reiterated support for the recent rate increase and issued fresh warnings regarding persistent inflation risks. Fed’s Barr flags need for more hikes, underpinning Dollar support Fed’s Barr delivers a distinctly hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 8/10, above the 7/10 historical average and signaling a stronger-than-usual tightening bias. The emphasis that “further rate hikes [are] likely needed” and that risks to achieving 2% inflation have increased, while labor market risks have receded, underscores a clear prioritization of inflation control over growth concerns. The admission that the Fed was “out of position” and needed to “recalibrate” policy reinforces the message that the current stance may still be too loose, a backdrop that tends to support the Dollar and weigh on risk assets. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.42 points to 148.81, firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark, consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading. This combination of a higher index level and above-baseline speech score confirms a market narrative of persistent Fed tightening risk, which should remain a supportive factor for the Dollar against lower-yielding peers. Adding to the hawkish interest-rate outlook is a potential rebound in crude oil prices amid lingering uncertainty surrounding United States-Iran diplomatic talks. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Tehran would not yield to threats, reaffirming the country's right to pursue nuclear technology for economic development. He also emphasized that Iran would restrict freedom of navigation through the strategic Strait of Hormuz for as long as US sanctions and blockades remain active. Because higher oil prices exacerbate inflationary pressures, these geopolitical tensions further reinforce expectations for prolonged monetary tightening, maintaining headwinds for Silver.

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Gold flat lines below $4,300 as Fed hike bets cap upside ahead of Trump-Xi meet

Gold remains depressed near a one-week low, touched earlier this Thursday. Fed rate hike bets and elevated US bond yields continue to underpin the USD. Geopolitical risks further benefit the buck and cap the upside for the bullion. Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near a one-week low, touched during the Asian session on Thursday, as traders wait on the sidelines ahead of a crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Expectations for a major announcement are low, though market players will look for any progress on rare earths, technology restrictions, and an extension of the current US-China truce. Nevertheless, the incoming headlines could infuse volatility and provide some impetus to the precious metal. Any intraday move up, however, is likely to remain capped amid rising US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which tend to undermine the non-yielding Gold. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in October. The expectations were lifted by a private survey, which showed that US business activity accelerated for a fourth straight month in September. In fact, the S&P Global flash Composite PMI Output Index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4, the highest level since July 2021. Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran took center stage at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) after Trump stated that Iran faces a choice of diplomacy or total destruction. In response, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran will never bend the knee, but is ready for a diplomatic solution. Pezeshkian also insisted that any deal would have to include an end to the US blockade, targeting Iranian ports and maritime shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. This led to a 3% rally in crude oil prices, reigniting inflation fears and underpinning prospects for further Fed tightening. The growing acceptance that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond to its highest level since July 2007 and lifted the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-month high on Wednesday. This, in turn, backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move for gold, though the subdued price action warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Hence, weakness below the monthly swing low, around the $4,235 area, touched last Wednesday, is needed to reaffirm the negative outlook and pave the way for deeper losses. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The XAU/USD pair maintains a capped tone below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50% retracement level. Meanwhile, a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading and a mid-range Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44.6 hint that bullish momentum has faded. Hence, any attempted recovery move is likely to be sold into while the Gold price remains under the clustered resistance. On the downside, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,227 offers nearby structural support, ahead of the 78.6% level at $4,101 and the prior swing floor at $3,940. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 50% retracement at $4,316, followed by the 100-day EMA at $4,359 and the 38.2% retracement at $4,405. A sustained break above this cluster would be needed to ease the bearish bias and open the way toward $4,515 and $4,693.

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Soybean Prices Face Fresh Trade-Policy Risk as US-China Talks and Export Demand Shape the Outlook

Soybean futures are holding relatively firm as traders balance underlying demand expectations against renewed uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations. The market is currently seeing mixed activity across soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil, with positioning cautious ahead of high-level discussions between US and Chinese leaders. November 2026 soybeans are around $13.18 per bushel, while nearby cash soybeans are around $12.59¾. January 2027 futures are near $13.33¾, with March 2027 around $13.42½. The forward structure continues to reflect expectations for substantial demand, although trade policy remains a major source of short-term volatility. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalNovember 2026 Soybeans$13.18/bushelNearby Cash Soybeans$12.59¾/bushelJanuary 2027 Soybeans$13.33¾/bushelMarch 2027 Soybeans$13.42½/bushelUS-China TradeTraders reducing risk ahead of leadership talksExpected Soybean Export Sales1.5–2.0 MMTExpected Soymeal Sales250,000–375,000 MTSoymeal Sales Range-2,000 to +6,500 MTSoymeal MarketFront month firm, deferred contracts mixedSoybean OilMildly weaker Current Soybean Price Action Soybean futures are showing a mixed but relatively resilient tone as traders reduce risk ahead of the latest US-China discussions. November 2026 soybeans are trading around $13.18, while January 2027 is near $13.33¾ and March 2027 around $13.42½. Nearby cash beans are approximately $12.59¾. Soybean meal is producing a mixed signal, with October futures gaining around $1.40 while other contracts are broadly steady to slightly lower. Soybean oil is softer, declining by roughly 3 to 12 points. The divergence across the soybean complex suggests that traders are assessing both the underlying value of the crop and the separate supply-and-demand dynamics affecting meal and oil. US-China Trade Talks Become the Immediate Catalyst US-China relations remain one of the most important variables for soybean demand. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of discussions that could focus on extending the current trade truce and making progress on tariffs. Soybeans are particularly sensitive to developments involving China because Chinese purchasing patterns can have a significant influence on global trade flows. Any indication that agricultural trade can remain stable or improve could strengthen expectations for US export demand. Conversely, renewed tariff uncertainty could redirect purchasing toward alternative origins and weigh on US soybean export expectations. The market is therefore likely to react rapidly to changes in the trade-policy outlook. US Export Demand Faces a Major Test The upcoming USDA Export Sales report is expected to provide a key demand signal, with market expectations centered around 1.5–2.0 MMT of soybean sales for the relevant reporting week. A result toward the upper end of expectations would reinforce the view that international demand remains strong enough to absorb substantial US supplies. A weaker-than-expected figure, however, could increase concerns about export competition and the ability of US soybeans to maintain strong shipment volumes as global buyers assess alternative origins. Soybean meal demand will also be monitored closely, with expectations for sales of approximately 250,000–375,000 MT. Soybean Meal and Oil Add Complexity to the Market The soybean crush complex remains an important source of price direction. Soybean meal is currently showing relative strength in the nearby contract, while deferred months are more mixed. Meal demand is closely connected to global livestock feed requirements, making animal-protein production and feed margins important longer-term variables. Soybean oil is softer, creating a less uniformly bullish signal across the complex. Vegetable-oil demand, biofuel economics and competing oils will remain important factors in determining whether soybean oil can provide additional support to the broader soybean market. The relationship between bean prices, meal values and oil prices will therefore remain important as traders assess crush margins and processor demand. Bullish Sentiment Potential US-China trade progress: An extension of the trade truce or movement toward lower tariff barriers could improve expectations for US soybean exports. Strong export expectations: Forecast soybean sales of 1.5–2.0 MMT indicate substantial underlying international demand. Firm nearby meal: Strength in the front soybean meal contract provides support to the crushing complex. Global feed demand: Soybean meal remains a major protein source for livestock and poultry feed, supporting structural demand. Forward prices remain firm: January and March 2027 futures remain above the November contract, reflecting continued demand and risk considerations further along the curve. Trade-policy upside: Any reduction in uncertainty could encourage importers to increase forward purchasing. Bearish Sentiment US-China tariff uncertainty: Failure to make progress on trade could weaken expectations for US soybean exports. Risk reduction: Traders are already reducing exposure ahead of the leadership discussions, limiting near-term upside momentum. Soybean oil weakness: Softer oil prices are reducing support from the broader soybean complex. Large US supply potential: If US production remains strong, ample domestic availability could limit sustained rallies. Global competition: South American supply remains a major factor in determining US export competitiveness. Mixed meal demand signals: Expectations for soybean meal sales range from a small net reduction to moderate net sales, indicating uncertainty around immediate demand. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The soybean market is approaching a significant short-term decision point as trade policy and export demand come into sharper focus. A constructive outcome from US-China discussions combined with export sales near the upper end of expectations could encourage buyers to return to the market and challenge recent highs. Conversely, limited progress on tariffs or weaker export bookings could leave soybeans vulnerable to further selling, particularly if traders continue reducing risk. The $13.18 area in November 2026 soybeans remains an important reference point. Sustained buying above this level would keep the market focused on the upside, while continued weakness could shift attention toward lower technical support areas. Supply Outlook The US soybean supply picture remains a central consideration as the market moves through the new crop period. Strong production would provide processors and exporters with substantial availability, but the eventual balance will depend on harvested yields, domestic crush demand and export commitments. Global competition will also remain important. US exporters must compete with South American origins for major international buyers, particularly when currency movements and freight economics favour alternative suppliers. Demand Outlook Export demand is the most immediate catalyst. The expected 1.5–2.0 MMT of soybean sales provides a substantial benchmark for the next market reaction. China remains particularly important because changes in Chinese purchasing behaviour can quickly alter global soybean trade flows. Domestic crush demand provides another layer of support, with soybean meal and soybean oil markets determining processor margins and influencing the pace at which beans are converted into products. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The soybean market is likely to remain highly sensitive to US-China trade developments and US export demand. The upcoming trade discussions could determine whether traders begin pricing in stronger US agricultural exports or continue to account for tariff-related uncertainty. The next USDA Export Sales report will provide a more direct indication of whether international buying is keeping pace with expectations. At the same time, traders will monitor soybean meal and soybean oil for confirmation from the broader crush complex. With November futures around $13.18, the market remains positioned between strong underlying demand expectations and substantial trade-policy uncertainty. The next move is likely to depend on whether export fundamentals or tariff concerns dominate the market narrative. Currency Hedger View Soybeans are priced internationally in US dollars, making currency movements an important consideration for global importers, processors and agricultural businesses. A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of soybean purchases for overseas buyers, potentially affecting purchasing decisions and trade flows. Conversely, a weaker dollar can improve the affordability of US-origin commodities. For businesses with USD soybean or feed-related exposure, managing the currency component alongside commodity-price risk can help provide greater visibility over future purchasing costs. Currency Hedger provides businesses with access to currency management solutions designed around international payments, exchange requirements and forward currency exposure. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Soybeans are entering a market environment where trade policy could become just as important as traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals. The US-China discussions represent an immediate catalyst, while the upcoming export data will provide a clearer indication of whether international demand is strong enough to absorb US supplies. The market retains support from substantial export expectations, firm nearby soybean meal values and the structural importance of soybeans to global feed and vegetable-oil markets. However, US production potential, South American competition and uncertainty around tariffs remain significant risks. The coming sessions should therefore focus on the direction of US-China trade policy, the scale of US export commitments and the behaviour of soybean meal and soybean oil. These factors will help determine whether current prices attract renewed demand or face another round of risk reduction. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Corn Prices Slide as US-China Meeting Drives Risk Reduction While Global Supply Tightens

Corn futures are under pressure as traders reduce risk ahead of high-level US-China discussions, while the underlying supply picture remains mixed. The market is balancing near-term uncertainty around global trade with fresh export demand, a seasonal slowdown in US ethanol production and a lower European corn crop estimate. The December 2026 corn contract is trading around $5.29 per bushel, while nearby cash corn is around $4.84. March 2027 futures are near $5.43½, with May 2027 around $5.50¾. The forward curve continues to reflect expectations for firm demand and potential supply constraints despite current selling pressure. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember 2026 Corn$5.29/bushelNearby Cash Corn$4.84/bushelMarch 2027 Corn$5.43½/bushelMay 2027 Corn$5.50¾/bushelUS-China TradeTraders reducing risk ahead of talksMexican Demand100,000 MT private 2026/27 saleExpected US Export Sales0.8–1.4 MMTUS Ethanol Production1.028 million barrels/dayWeekly Ethanol Production Change-71,000 bpdUS Ethanol Stocks25.683 million barrelsWeekly Ethanol Stock Change-537,000 barrelsEU & UK 2026 Corn Crop48.6 MMTEU & UK Crop Revision-4.1 MMT Current Corn Price Action Corn futures are facing selling pressure as traders move to reduce exposure ahead of the US-China leadership meeting. The front end of the curve is seeing the strongest pressure, with December 2026 futures at $5.29, down around 7¾ cents, while March 2027 is near $5.43½ and May 2027 around $5.50¾. The decline reflects short-term positioning rather than a broad deterioration in the fundamental outlook. Traders are waiting for clearer signals on trade relations, export demand and the pace of US domestic consumption. The key question for the next several sessions is whether the current decline attracts renewed commercial and speculative buying or develops into a deeper correction. US-China Trade Risk Remains a Key Short-Term Driver US-China relations remain an important source of volatility for agricultural markets. With senior US and Chinese leaders preparing for discussions, traders are reducing risk while waiting for clearer signals on trade, agricultural purchasing and broader bilateral relations. Any indication of improved trade cooperation could strengthen expectations for additional US agricultural demand. Conversely, limited progress could keep traders cautious and reduce near-term enthusiasm across the corn complex. The market is therefore likely to react quickly to any developments affecting agricultural trade flows. Fresh Mexican Corn Demand Provides Fundamental Support USDA-reported private export demand includes a 100,000 MT sale of 2026/27 corn to Mexico, reinforcing the importance of Mexico as a major destination for US corn. The upcoming US Export Sales report is expected to provide a broader indication of demand momentum. Market expectations are centered on approximately 0.8–1.4 MMT of 2026/27 corn bookings. A result toward or above the upper end of that range could help offset some of the current technical selling pressure, particularly if export commitments continue to demonstrate strong international demand. Ethanol Demand Enters a Seasonal Transition US ethanol production is currently running at 1.028 million barrels per day, representing a weekly decline of approximately 71,000 barrels per day. The reduction is consistent with the seasonal transition in US fuel demand and provides a near-term headwind for corn consumption from the biofuel sector. However, ethanol inventories have also declined by approximately 537,000 barrels, leaving stocks at 25.683 million barrels. A continued drawdown in inventories could help limit concerns about weakening downstream demand. The next phase of the ethanol market will therefore depend on the balance between production rates, fuel demand and inventory levels. European Corn Crop Outlook Deteriorates The European and UK corn production outlook is becoming more restrictive. The latest estimate places the combined 2026 crop at 48.6 MMT, representing a reduction of 4.1 MMT from the previous estimate. A smaller European crop could increase reliance on imports and improve the competitiveness of US corn in global markets, depending on currency movements, freight costs and Black Sea supply availability. The European production downgrade provides an important medium-term counterweight to the current US market weakness. Bullish Sentiment Fresh Mexican demand: A new 100,000 MT sale confirms continuing international interest in US corn. Potentially strong export bookings: Expectations of 0.8–1.4 MMT in upcoming sales provide a significant demand test. Lower European production: The 4.1 MMT reduction in the EU and UK crop estimate tightens the global supply outlook. Reduced ethanol inventories: A 537,000-barrel stock draw indicates that domestic fuel demand remains an important source of corn consumption. US-China trade upside: Any improvement in bilateral agricultural trade conditions could create additional demand potential for US corn. Forward prices remain elevated: March and May 2027 contracts remain above December, indicating that the market continues to price a firm forward balance. Bearish Sentiment Risk reduction ahead of US-China talks: Traders are reducing exposure while awaiting clearer trade signals. Seasonal ethanol slowdown: US ethanol production has fallen by 71,000 barrels per day, reducing near-term corn consumption. Front-month technical pressure: The strongest selling is concentrated in the nearby contracts, indicating weaker short-term momentum. Large US production potential: If US yields and harvested acreage ultimately produce a large crop, domestic availability could remain comfortable. Trade uncertainty: Failure to generate meaningful progress in US-China agricultural relations could limit expectations for additional export demand. Profit-taking risk: Continued weakness following the recent elevated price levels could encourage further speculative liquidation. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Corn's next directional move is likely to depend on whether demand fundamentals can overcome the current risk reduction. A stronger-than-expected US Export Sales report, additional Mexican or Chinese purchases, or constructive US-China trade developments could provide support and shift attention back toward tightening global supply. Conversely, weak export bookings combined with continued seasonal weakness in ethanol production could leave the market vulnerable to further selling. The $5.29 area in December 2026 corn remains an important near-term reference. A recovery through recent resistance would improve the technical tone, while sustained weakness could expose the contract to additional downside before fundamental buyers return. Supply Outlook The US supply outlook remains dependent on final yield results and the pace of harvest. Any evidence that production is falling short of expectations would increase the market's sensitivity to export and domestic demand. Outside the US, the lower European and UK crop estimate provides a more supportive global supply backdrop. The 48.6 MMT estimate indicates that European availability may be tighter than previously anticipated. Demand Outlook Export demand remains the most important immediate demand indicator. Mexico continues to provide confirmed buying interest, while the upcoming US Export Sales figures will show whether broader international demand is maintaining momentum. Ethanol remains another major demand component. Production is entering a seasonal slowdown, but lower inventories suggest that consumption remains substantial. US-China trade developments could become particularly important if they alter expectations for future agricultural purchasing. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Corn is entering a period where trade headlines, export sales and domestic demand indicators are likely to compete for market attention. The immediate focus will be on US-China discussions and the resulting implications for agricultural trade. The next US Export Sales report will then provide a more concrete measure of international demand. At the same time, traders will monitor ethanol production and inventories for evidence of whether seasonal demand weakness is accelerating or stabilising. With the European crop outlook deteriorating and confirmed Mexican demand continuing, the underlying fundamentals remain capable of providing support if export activity strengthens. Currency Hedger View Corn is globally traded in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of the landed cost for international buyers. A stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of US corn and potentially reduce export competitiveness, while a weaker dollar can improve purchasing conditions for overseas buyers. For importers, food manufacturers and agricultural businesses exposed to USD-denominated corn purchases, managing the currency component can be as important as monitoring the underlying commodity price. Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside the underlying market environment, with a focus on exchange levels, forward requirements and broader macroeconomic drivers. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Corn is currently caught between short-term positioning pressure and a fundamental backdrop that still contains several supportive elements. The immediate market reaction to US-China trade developments and the next export sales figures should determine whether the current decline develops further or attracts renewed buying. The combination of confirmed Mexican demand, a lower European crop estimate and still-substantial ethanol consumption provides a foundation for the market. However, seasonal ethanol weakness and uncertainty around US-China trade keep the near-term outlook volatile. The coming sessions should therefore be watched closely for changes in export demand, trade policy expectations, ethanol consumption and evidence from the US harvest. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Wheat Prices Under Pressure as Black Sea Ceasefire Talks and European Crop Outlook Weigh on Market

Wheat futures are under pressure across the major US markets, with Chicago SRW, KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat all facing selling pressure as traders balance geopolitical uncertainty against improving supply expectations. December Chicago SRW is around $7.08½ per bushel, while December KC HRW is near $7.71¾ and December Minneapolis spring wheat is around $7.29¾. The market remains highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ukraine has indicated that it is prepared to support a ceasefire covering energy infrastructure if Russia takes a similar step, while Kyiv is also calling for broader talks involving the United States and Russia. At the same time, traders are awaiting fresh US export-sales data for evidence of whether international demand is strong enough to absorb available supplies. The market is looking for weekly wheat bookings of approximately 350,000 to 600,000 metric tonnes. European production estimates are also becoming more important, with Coceral reducing its combined UK and EU wheat crop estimate to 137.5 million tonnes, down 3.3 million tonnes from its previous forecast. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationDec 2026 CBOT Wheat$7.08½/bushelMar 2027 CBOT Wheat$7.24¼/bushelDec 2026 KC HRW$7.71¾/bushelMar 2027 KC HRW$7.85½/bushelDec 2026 Minneapolis$7.29¾/bushelMar 2027 Minneapolis$7.50/bushelCurrent Price BiasUnder pressureKey Geopolitical DriverRussia-Ukraine ceasefire discussionsUS Export Sales Expectations350,000–600,000 MTUK/EU Wheat Crop Estimate137.5 MMTKey Supply ChangeCoceral estimate reduced by 3.3 MMT Current Wheat Price Action The wheat complex is experiencing broad-based selling pressure, with losses extending across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts. Chicago SRW remains the key benchmark for global wheat sentiment, while the KC HRW and Minneapolis markets provide additional information about hard-red winter and spring wheat supply conditions. The December contracts currently trade at approximately $7.08½ in Chicago, $7.71¾ in Kansas City and $7.29¾ in Minneapolis. The decline reflects a market that remains cautious about demand while closely monitoring geopolitical developments and international crop estimates. However, the downside is being balanced by the possibility that geopolitical developments could quickly alter Black Sea export expectations. Russia-Ukraine Conflict Remains a Major Catalyst The Black Sea remains one of the most important variables for the global wheat market. Ukraine has indicated that it is prepared to support a ceasefire involving energy targets provided Russia agrees to a similar arrangement. Kyiv is also calling for trilateral discussions involving President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. For wheat traders, the broader significance is the potential impact on agricultural infrastructure, logistics and export flows. A durable reduction in hostilities could improve confidence in Black Sea shipping and maintain strong export availability. Conversely, renewed attacks on infrastructure or a breakdown in negotiations could increase concerns over production, transportation and export capacity. The market is therefore pricing both the possibility of improved trade flows and the risk of another disruption. US Wheat Export Demand The next major fundamental signal is the US export-sales data. Market expectations are centred around 350,000 to 600,000 metric tonnes of wheat bookings. A result toward or above the upper end of that range would provide evidence that international buyers are actively absorbing US supplies and could offer support to futures. A weaker result would reinforce concerns that US wheat is facing strong competition from other origins, particularly if Black Sea exporters maintain competitive pricing. Export demand is therefore becoming increasingly important in determining whether current price weakness can extend. European Wheat Crop Outlook European supply expectations are providing another source of pressure. Coceral currently estimates the combined UK and EU wheat crop at 137.5 million tonnes, representing a 3.3 million-tonne reduction from its previous estimate. The downward revision is supportive from a supply perspective because it indicates that production expectations are deteriorating. However, the market must assess the revised figure against broader global availability and export competition. A smaller European crop could increase import requirements and improve the competitiveness of alternative origins, particularly if European domestic demand remains stable. Chicago SRW Wheat December Chicago SRW is trading around $7.08½ per bushel, down approximately 8¾ cents from the previous reference level. The market remains caught between export competition and geopolitical risk. The $7.00 area is an important psychological reference point. A sustained move toward or below that region would increase focus on demand and global supply competition, while renewed buying above current levels would signal that traders are placing greater value on geopolitical and production risks. March 2027 Chicago wheat is around $7.24¼, maintaining a modest premium over the December contract. Kansas City HRW Wheat December KC HRW is around $7.71¾ per bushel, while March 2027 is near $7.85½. The KC market continues to carry a premium relative to Chicago, reflecting the different quality and regional supply characteristics of hard-red winter wheat. The next direction will depend on US crop conditions, export demand and whether global buyers increase purchases from US suppliers. Minneapolis Spring Wheat December Minneapolis spring wheat is trading around $7.29¾, with March 2027 around $7.50. The Minneapolis market remains sensitive to spring wheat production and quality considerations as well as broader wheat-sector demand. A sustained decline across all three US wheat markets would indicate that the current pressure is broad rather than confined to one wheat class. Bullish Sentiment Ukraine supply risk: Any renewed escalation affecting agricultural infrastructure or Black Sea logistics could tighten export availability. European crop reduction: Coceral's 3.3 MMT reduction in its UK/EU estimate provides a direct supply-supportive factor. US export demand: Weekly sales toward the upper end of 350,000–600,000 MT expectations could provide fresh support. Black Sea uncertainty: Negotiations do not guarantee a durable reduction in disruption risk. Global food security: Any deterioration in major exporting regions could increase international buying interest. Lower prices stimulate demand: A sustained decline could encourage importers to increase coverage. Bearish Sentiment Broad futures weakness: Selling is currently affecting Chicago, KC and Minneapolis simultaneously. Black Sea export competition: Improved geopolitical conditions could support continued exports from the region. Strong global competition: US wheat must compete with alternative origins for international demand. Demand uncertainty: Export sales below expectations would reinforce concerns about available US demand. European production remains substantial: Despite the downward revision, the 137.5 MMT UK/EU crop estimate represents significant regional availability. Stronger dollar risk: A firmer US dollar could make US wheat less competitive for international buyers. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Wheat's next directional move is likely to depend on the balance between geopolitical risk, export demand and global crop availability. Upside scenario: Strong US export sales, further reductions in European production estimates or renewed disruption involving Russia and Ukraine could increase supply concerns and support a recovery across the wheat complex. Stabilisation scenario: If export sales remain within expectations while Black Sea conditions remain relatively stable, futures could consolidate around current levels as traders await clearer signals from global demand and crop fundamentals. Downside scenario: Weak US export demand combined with improving Black Sea trade conditions and strong global competition could keep pressure on Chicago, KC and Minneapolis wheat. The $7.00 area in Chicago SRW will remain an important psychological reference as traders determine whether current selling pressure is developing into a deeper correction or simply a consolidation within the broader market. Supply Outlook Global wheat supply remains heavily influenced by production across the Black Sea, Europe, North America and other major exporting regions. The reduction in the UK/EU estimate provides some support to the supply balance, but competitive availability from other exporters remains a major factor. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains particularly important because changes in Black Sea export capacity can alter the global supply balance quickly. The coming crop estimates and export-flow data will therefore be critical for determining whether the current supply picture becomes tighter or more comfortable. Demand Outlook International demand remains the key test for current price levels. US export sales between 350,000 and 600,000 MT would indicate a meaningful level of international buying, while stronger-than-expected bookings could provide evidence that lower prices are beginning to stimulate demand. Conversely, weak sales would reinforce concerns that US wheat remains less competitive against other origins. Importers are likely to remain highly price-sensitive, particularly while Black Sea exporters continue to compete aggressively in international markets. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Wheat traders will remain focused on the interaction between geopolitical developments and hard supply-and-demand data. Key areas to monitor include: US wheat export sales Russia-Ukraine ceasefire discussions Black Sea export flows UK and EU crop estimates US winter wheat conditions Global wheat export competition Currency movements affecting export competitiveness Weather across major producing regions Chicago wheat around the $7.00 area The market currently has no shortage of potential catalysts. Geopolitical headlines can rapidly change supply expectations, while export-sales data provides a more direct measurement of underlying demand. Currency Hedger View Wheat prices and currency movements are closely connected for international grain traders, food manufacturers, importers and exporters. For wheat buyers, a stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of US-denominated grain even when the underlying futures price is unchanged. Conversely, exporters must monitor currency movements because exchange rates can influence their competitiveness against suppliers from other origins. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between FX markets, commodities, interest rates, inflation, geopolitics and global trade flows to help businesses assess international currency exposure. Currency Hedger provides FX exchange, international payments and managed currency solutions for businesses managing international financial requirements. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Wheat remains under pressure as traders balance broad futures weakness against an increasingly uncertain global supply and geopolitical environment. The immediate market focus is shifting toward US export demand, with expected bookings of 350,000–600,000 MT providing an important test of whether current prices are attracting international buyers. At the same time, the 3.3 MMT reduction in the UK/EU crop estimate provides evidence that European production expectations are tightening, while developments between Russia and Ukraine continue to represent a major source of uncertainty for global wheat exports. The key issue for the coming sessions is whether improving trade conditions and competitive global supply can outweigh geopolitical and production risks. Chicago wheat around $7.00 per bushel will remain an important reference point, while the behaviour of KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat will help determine whether the current weakness is broadening across the entire complex. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Copper Retreats From Record High as Mine Disruptions Tighten Supply and AI Demand Builds

Copper futures are trading below $6.70 per pound, pulling back from record levels as a stronger US dollar and rising Federal Reserve rate expectations temporarily weigh on the metal. The retreat comes against an increasingly tight physical supply backdrop. The suspension of operations at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile following the death of a worker adds another disruption to a market already facing production problems across several major mining regions. The supply situation is becoming particularly significant because global mined copper production could decline this year for the first time since 2017. Disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have already reduced expected annual production by an estimated 600,000 tonnes. At the same time, structural demand remains strong. Electricity-grid investment, AI data centres, defence applications and continued technology-sector growth are increasing the importance of copper just as available mined supply faces growing constraints. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationCopper FuturesBelow $6.70/lbRecent Price ActionPullback from record highMain Macro PressureStronger US dollarUS Rate ExpectationsFurther Fed hikes being pricedEscondida MineOperations suspendedGlobal Mine SupplyPotential annual declineIndonesia / DRC DisruptionsAround 600,000 tonnes of output at riskKey Demand DriversPower grids, AI data centres, defence and technologyStructural Market RiskTightening mined supply Current Copper Price Action Copper is experiencing a pullback after reaching record levels, with the stronger dollar providing an immediate headwind. Because copper is priced in US dollars, a stronger greenback raises the effective cost for buyers using other currencies. This can weigh on international demand and encourage short-term profit-taking after a substantial rally. However, the current decline does not eliminate the underlying supply problem. The market is increasingly being forced to balance a stronger dollar and higher interest-rate expectations against disruptions at some of the world's largest copper mines. That makes the current pullback particularly important. If prices stabilise despite continued dollar strength, it would suggest that physical supply concerns are absorbing much of the macro pressure. Escondida Mine Disruption The suspension of mining operations at Escondida in Chile is adding another layer of uncertainty to global copper supply. Escondida is one of the world's most important copper mines, meaning any interruption can have an outsized impact on expectations for concentrate availability and refined-metal supply. The immediate effect depends on the duration of the suspension and the speed at which operations can resume. A short disruption could produce only a temporary supply shock. A prolonged interruption would increase concerns about concentrate availability and potentially tighten an already vulnerable global balance. Global Mine Supply Under Pressure The broader supply picture is becoming increasingly important. Sprott Asset Management has indicated that global mined copper production could decline this year for the first time since 2017. That would represent a significant change for a market facing rapidly expanding long-term demand from electrification and digital infrastructure. Copper supply is difficult to increase quickly. Developing a major mine requires substantial capital, permitting, infrastructure and years of construction. Consequently, disruptions at existing mines can have a greater immediate impact than in markets where production can respond rapidly to higher prices. Indonesia and Democratic Republic of Congo Disruptions Mining disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have further reduced expected global output. The combined impact is estimated at approximately 600,000 tonnes of annual production. This is significant because the market is not dealing with a single isolated operational problem. Instead, multiple producing regions are simultaneously contributing to supply uncertainty. If these disruptions persist alongside the suspension at Escondida, the market could face a progressively tighter concentrate balance. AI Data Centres and Power-Grid Demand Copper demand is increasingly connected to the expansion of electricity infrastructure. AI data centres require substantial power generation, transmission and distribution capacity. This creates demand for copper throughout the electrical infrastructure supporting the technology buildout. Power-grid investment is also becoming a major structural source of consumption as economies expand electricity networks and upgrade existing infrastructure. The rapid development of AI infrastructure therefore adds another long-term demand component at a time when copper supply growth is becoming more difficult to achieve. Defence and Technology Demand Copper's role in electrical systems, communications, electronics and industrial equipment also keeps demand linked to defence and technology investment. The recent strength in technology and AI stocks is reinforcing expectations that investment in data centres, semiconductor infrastructure and associated electricity networks will remain substantial. This does not guarantee continuously rising copper prices, but it strengthens the structural demand argument over the medium and longer term. Bullish Sentiment Escondida suspension: Operational disruption at a major Chilean mine creates an immediate supply risk. Global production concerns: Mined copper output could decline this year for the first time since 2017. 600,000 tonnes at risk: Disruptions in Indonesia and the DRC have materially reduced expected annual production. AI infrastructure: Data-centre construction and power requirements are creating additional copper demand. Power-grid investment: Electricity transmission and distribution expansion remains a major structural demand driver. Defence and technology: Copper consumption continues to benefit from electronics, communications and defence infrastructure. Limited supply response: New copper production cannot be brought online quickly, increasing the sensitivity of prices to mine disruptions. Bearish Sentiment Stronger US dollar: Dollar appreciation increases the effective cost of copper for non-US buyers. Higher US rates: Further Federal Reserve tightening expectations can weigh on industrial commodities through tighter financial conditions. Record-price profit-taking: The move from record highs creates scope for short-term liquidation and technical correction. Demand sensitivity: Higher copper prices can eventually encourage substitution, efficiency gains or delays to discretionary industrial purchases. Mine recovery: If disrupted operations return faster than expected, some of the immediate supply premium could unwind. Macro slowdown risk: Tighter global financial conditions could eventually reduce industrial and construction demand. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Copper's next major move is likely to depend on whether supply disruption concerns outweigh the pressure from the dollar and global interest rates. Upside scenario: If Escondida remains offline, Indonesia and DRC disruptions persist and global mined production declines, copper could regain upward momentum. Continued AI data-centre and power-grid investment would strengthen this scenario. Stabilisation scenario: Copper could consolidate below its record high if mine disruptions remain contained while the dollar stays firm. In this environment, strong structural demand could provide a floor without immediately producing another breakout. Downside scenario: A sustained dollar rally combined with higher US rates and evidence of weakening industrial demand could extend the correction. A rapid restoration of disrupted mine supply would add further downside pressure. The key issue is whether the current pullback represents a normal correction within a structurally tight market or the beginning of a broader repricing caused by stronger monetary conditions. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains one of the most important bullish components of the copper market. Multiple mine disruptions are occurring against a backdrop of limited new production capacity. The potential decline in global mined output this year reinforces concerns that supply growth is struggling to keep pace with long-term consumption requirements. The duration of the Escondida suspension will be particularly important. If operations resume quickly, the market could regain some confidence in near-term availability. If disruptions continue across Chile, Indonesia and the DRC, the physical market could become increasingly constrained. Demand Outlook Copper demand remains structurally supported by electrification and technology investment. AI data centres require extensive electrical infrastructure, while power-grid upgrades increase copper consumption across transmission and distribution networks. Defence and technology applications provide additional demand support. The main risk is not necessarily a collapse in structural demand, but whether higher prices and tighter financial conditions eventually slow the pace of new investment. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Copper is likely to remain caught between strong structural fundamentals and increasingly important macroeconomic headwinds. Traders will focus on: The duration of the Escondida mine suspension Developments at major Indonesian and DRC mines Global mined-production estimates US dollar direction Federal Reserve rate expectations US Treasury yields AI data-centre investment Power-grid spending Technology and semiconductor-sector performance Evidence of changes in industrial demand The most important signal may be how copper responds to further dollar strength. If the metal remains resilient despite a stronger greenback, the market could be demonstrating that physical supply concerns remain dominant. Currency Hedger View Copper prices and currency markets are closely connected for international manufacturers, mining companies, industrial buyers and businesses exposed to commodity-linked revenues or costs. A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of copper for international buyers even when the underlying metal price is unchanged. Conversely, copper producers selling into dollar-denominated markets can face a different currency exposure between revenue and operating costs. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between commodities, FX markets, interest rates, inflation, central-bank policy and global economic conditions to help businesses assess their international currency exposure. Currency Hedger provides FX exchange, international payments and managed currency solutions for businesses operating across international markets. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Copper is pulling back from record levels, but the correction is taking place against a supply backdrop that remains unusually vulnerable. The suspension at Escondida, combined with disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlights the difficulty of maintaining mined production at a time when demand is increasingly connected to AI infrastructure, electricity grids, defence and electrification. The stronger dollar and higher US rate expectations are creating a legitimate near-term headwind. However, monetary conditions do not directly resolve the physical supply constraints facing the copper market. The critical question for the coming sessions is therefore whether macro pressure can outweigh tightening mine supply and resilient structural demand. If supply disruptions persist while AI and power-grid investment remains strong, the current retreat could prove to be a period of consolidation rather than a fundamental deterioration in the longer-term copper outlook. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Palm Oil Rebounds on Firmer Dalian, India Duty Cuts

Malaysian palm oil futures strengthened, hovering near MYR 4,790 per tonne after recent declines, boosted by a weaker ringgit, firmer edible oils on the Dalian market, and India’s decision to cut basic import duties on crude and refined vegetable oils ahead of the September–November festive season, in an effort to curb domestic food inflation. Supply concerns also lent support, as top supplier Indonesia is expected to face a shorter-than-usual wet season from November, potentially affecting crops. However, the upside was tempered by expectations of higher Malaysian inventories, with a brokerage forecasting end-stocks to reach around 3 million tonnes, or slightly higher, by September-end, driven by a double-digit rise in production, particularly in Sabah. Exports also stayed sluggish, with cargo surveyors noting shipments fell between 12.8%–24.7% mom during September 1–20. In the energy market, softer crude prices amid improving Gulf supply also weighed on sentiment.

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Energies

September 24, 2026

European Natural Gas Prices Rebound as Hormuz Disruption Raises Winter Supply Risks

European natural gas prices are rebounding toward €74/MWh as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East continues to keep global LNG supply risks firmly in focus. The market is recovering from a three-week low as traders assess whether diplomatic efforts can reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for LNG and energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. The immediate gas-market risk is centred on the possibility that prolonged disruption restricts LNG availability just as Europe moves closer to the winter heating season. European storage is providing an important buffer, but inventories remain below the five-year seasonal average and below the region's 80% target, leaving the market sensitive to further supply disruptions or an extended period of colder weather. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, constrained Gulf LNG flows and Europe's incomplete storage position means the European gas market remains highly exposed to upside price volatility as winter approaches. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationEuropean Natural GasAround €74/MWhRecent TrendRebounding from a three-week lowEuropean StorageAround 70% fullEU Storage Target80%Seasonal PositionBelow five-year averageKey Supply RiskStrait of Hormuz disruptionKey Demand RiskWinter heating demandMain Bullish CatalystReduced Gulf LNG availabilityMain Bearish CatalystDiplomatic progress and reopening of Hormuz Current European Natural Gas Price Action Natural gas prices are moving higher as traders rebuild a geopolitical risk premium around European energy supply. The market's recovery toward €74/MWh indicates that the recent decline is losing momentum as attention shifts from short-term price weakness toward the winter supply balance. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the outlook. The waterway is largely closed, restricting LNG flows from the Persian Gulf and increasing uncertainty over how much gas can reach global markets through alternative routes. This creates an asymmetric risk for Europe: if the disruption persists, the market could face tighter LNG availability precisely when seasonal demand begins increasing. At the same time, prices remain below the extreme levels that could emerge if physical shortages develop. This leaves the next move heavily dependent on the duration of the disruption and the ability of European buyers to secure alternative LNG supplies. Middle East Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Risk The geopolitical situation remains one of the most important short-term drivers for European gas. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has indicated that Tehran will not surrender to US pressure while remaining open to dialogue and diplomacy, with conditions attached to any return to negotiations. For energy markets, the distinction between negotiations and an actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical. A credible diplomatic agreement that restores shipping through the waterway could rapidly reduce the risk premium embedded in European gas prices. Conversely, continued restrictions would maintain pressure on LNG availability and could encourage buyers to compete more aggressively for cargoes from other producing regions. The longer the disruption continues, the greater the potential impact on Europe's winter procurement strategy. European Gas Storage Remains a Key Risk European storage facilities are currently around 70% full, providing a significant inventory buffer but remaining below both the five-year seasonal average and the region's 80% target. That gap matters because storage is the primary mechanism through which Europe can absorb periods of elevated winter demand. If LNG imports remain constrained, European buyers may need to draw more heavily on stored gas during the heating season. That would increase sensitivity to weather and could leave the market vulnerable to a late-winter supply squeeze. Conversely, continued strong injections before winter, combined with increased LNG availability, would reduce the probability of a severe storage deficit and could put downward pressure on prices. Winter Heating Demand The approach of the winter heating season is shifting the market's focus toward the relationship between available inventories and potential demand. A mild winter would reduce withdrawals and give Europe greater flexibility if LNG supplies remain restricted. A colder-than-normal winter would have the opposite effect, accelerating storage withdrawals and increasing competition for spot LNG. The market therefore has two important variables to monitor simultaneously: How much gas Europe enters winter with. How quickly storage is depleted once heating demand increases. The lower the starting inventory relative to the seasonal norm, the greater the price sensitivity to weather-driven demand. Global LNG Supply The disruption around the Persian Gulf is particularly important because LNG markets are interconnected. If Gulf LNG exports remain impaired, European buyers may need to source additional cargoes from other producing regions. This can tighten the global LNG balance even if European storage remains relatively comfortable. Asian buyers competing for the same flexible cargoes could amplify the pressure. This means the European gas market is not only responding to European fundamentals. It is also pricing the possibility of stronger competition for globally available LNG. Goldman Sachs Upside Risk The potential for a significantly higher winter price environment remains part of the market debate. Goldman Sachs has highlighted upside risks to European gas prices and warned that the European benchmark could move above €100/MWh during peak winter if Gulf LNG exports fail to increase. That scenario would require a combination of restricted LNG flows, insufficient storage replenishment and stronger winter demand. It should therefore be viewed as a risk scenario rather than a base-case price target. Nevertheless, it illustrates how quickly the European gas balance could tighten if geopolitical disruption persists into the heating season. Bullish Sentiment Hormuz disruption: Continued restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz could keep Gulf LNG supplies constrained. Storage below target: European inventories around 70% remain below the 80% target, leaving less protection against winter demand shocks. Winter approaching: Seasonal heating demand will increase the importance of storage withdrawals and replacement LNG. Global LNG competition: Reduced Gulf exports could force European and Asian buyers to compete for alternative cargoes. Geopolitical risk premium: A prolonged Middle East conflict can maintain elevated uncertainty across global energy markets. Potential for extreme winter pricing: A combination of low storage, restricted LNG and cold weather could produce substantially tighter conditions. Bearish Sentiment Diplomatic progress: A credible agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and quickly reduce the geopolitical premium. Alternative LNG supplies: Additional cargoes from other producing regions could compensate for some lost Gulf supply. Storage injections: Continued European inventory builds before winter would improve the region's resilience. Mild weather: Lower heating demand would reduce withdrawals and ease pressure on the European gas balance. Demand destruction: Persistently high prices could encourage industrial consumers to reduce gas consumption. Risk premium reversal: If the market concludes that the physical disruption will be temporary, speculative positioning could unwind. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The European gas market is approaching a critical period in which geopolitical developments and physical fundamentals can pull prices in opposite directions. Upside scenario: If the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, Gulf LNG exports stay impaired and European storage remains below seasonal norms, prices could extend higher. A colder winter would amplify that risk, potentially pushing the benchmark toward increasingly elevated levels and bringing the €100/MWh risk scenario into focus. Stabilisation scenario: If diplomatic negotiations progress without an immediate full reopening of Hormuz, prices could remain volatile around current levels while traders wait for clearer evidence of restored LNG flows and continued European storage injections. Downside scenario: A durable diplomatic breakthrough, reopening of the waterway and improving LNG availability could remove much of the geopolitical premium. If this is accompanied by mild weather and strong European storage levels, prices could move lower. The next major directional signal is therefore likely to come from physical LNG availability and the trajectory of European storage, rather than price momentum alone. Supply Outlook European supply conditions remain closely linked to LNG imports. The key question is whether the reduction in Gulf flows proves temporary or becomes a prolonged disruption extending into the winter procurement period. Alternative LNG suppliers can partially offset lost volumes, but increased European demand for replacement cargoes could raise global competition and transportation costs. The supply outlook therefore remains highly dependent on the duration of the Hormuz disruption and the pace at which European storage continues to build. Demand Outlook European gas demand is expected to become increasingly weather-sensitive as the heating season approaches. Residential and commercial heating demand will be the main seasonal driver, while industrial consumption remains sensitive to gas prices and broader economic conditions. A cold winter could rapidly accelerate storage withdrawals, whereas mild conditions would allow inventories to provide a larger cushion. The interaction between starting storage levels, winter temperatures and LNG availability will determine how tight the physical market becomes. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions European natural gas is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines as the market approaches the winter heating season. Traders will focus on: Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Evidence of renewed Gulf LNG exports European storage injections and inventory levels Weather forecasts for the coming winter LNG competition between Europe and Asia Industrial gas demand Signs of diplomatic progress involving Iran Whether prices can sustain the recovery toward and above €74/MWh The market remains caught between a potential improvement in geopolitical conditions and a potentially tighter winter supply balance. Until those risks become clearer, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Currency Hedger View European natural gas prices are particularly important for businesses exposed to energy costs because movements in the commodity can feed directly into operating expenses, import costs and international payment requirements. For European companies purchasing energy or LNG-related products in US dollars, a combination of higher gas prices and adverse EUR/USD movements can increase the effective cost of procurement. Currency Hedger monitors the interaction between energy markets, interest rates, central-bank policy, inflation, geopolitics and currency markets to help businesses assess their international currency exposure. Currency Hedger provides FX exchange, international payments and managed currency solutions designed to help businesses manage the currency component of their global financial requirements. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets European natural gas prices are rebounding as the market reassesses the balance between geopolitical supply disruption and Europe's winter preparedness. The immediate focus remains the Strait of Hormuz. A reopening would reduce pressure on LNG availability and could remove a significant portion of the current risk premium. Continued disruption, however, would leave Europe competing for alternative LNG supplies while entering the winter season with storage still below its target. The €74/MWh area is therefore less important as an isolated price level than the underlying physical developments behind it. If storage continues improving and Gulf LNG flows recover, the current rebound could lose momentum. If supply remains restricted while winter demand approaches, the upside risk becomes considerably more significant. The coming sessions are likely to be driven by the interaction between geopolitical developments, LNG availability, storage levels and weather expectations. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Live Cattle Futures Rally as Tight Slaughter Supplies Meet Falling Beef Inventories

Live cattle futures are extending higher as the cattle market responds to firm cash prices, sharply reduced slaughter levels and continued uncertainty over available market-ready cattle. Futures are showing broad strength, with October live cattle around $220.93, December near $222.35 and February 2027 at approximately $223.65. The strength in futures is developing despite weaker wholesale boxed beef values, creating an increasingly important divergence between cattle prices and wholesale beef demand. At the same time, federally inspected slaughter remains substantially below both the previous week and the comparable period last year, reinforcing concerns about near-term cattle supplies. Cash trade is currently being reported around $350 dressed in the North, while live bids are around $223. The latest Fed Cattle Exchange auction produced no sales from 1,696 head offered, with bids also reported around $223. The market is therefore entering the coming sessions with the balance between tight slaughter availability, cash cattle prices, boxed beef demand and feedlot profitability remaining central to price direction. Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market PictureOctober 2026 Live Cattle$220.925, +$2.150December 2026 Live Cattle$222.350, +$2.900February 2027 Live Cattle$223.650, +$3.100September 2026 Feeder Cattle$336.525, -$0.750October 2026 Feeder Cattle$333.325, +$5.300November 2026 Feeder Cattle$329.500, +$6.300Northern dressed cashAround $350Live cash bidsAround $223CME Feeder Cattle Index$336.98Wednesday slaughter94,000 headWeek-to-date slaughter299,000 headWTD vs previous week14,000 head lowerWTD vs year ago52,109 head lowerChoice boxed beef$377.31, down $1.58Select boxed beef$352.34, down $5.51 Current Live Cattle Price Action Live cattle futures are attracting strong buying interest across the curve. October live cattle are trading around $220.93, while December has climbed to approximately $222.35 and February 2027 to $223.65. The gains increase progressively into the deferred contracts, suggesting that traders are placing significant weight on the prospect of tighter cattle availability further forward. The structure of the market is particularly important. February futures are trading above both October and December, indicating that the market is continuing to price a firm supply environment into early 2027. The immediate question is whether cash cattle strength can continue validating the futures rally while wholesale beef prices remain under pressure. Cash Cattle Market Remains Firm Cash cattle prices are providing an important fundamental floor. Northern dressed trade is being reported around $350, while live bids are around $223. The Fed Cattle Exchange auction also showed bids near $223, although none of the 1,696 head offered changed hands. The absence of completed sales does not necessarily indicate weak demand. Instead, it highlights the current negotiation between feedlots and packers, with sellers potentially holding out for stronger cash levels while packers assess margins and wholesale beef demand. A sustained cash market around current levels would reinforce the bullish futures structure. Cattle Slaughter Remains Well Below Last Year The most significant supply-side factor is the unusually low slaughter pace. USDA-estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter for Wednesday is 94,000 head, bringing the week-to-date total to 299,000 head. That is: 14,000 head below the previous week 52,109 head below the comparable week last year The reduction in slaughter is important because fewer cattle moving through processing plants can tighten available beef supplies even when wholesale demand is not particularly strong. If slaughter remains constrained, the market could continue placing a premium on available finished cattle. Boxed Beef Prices Move Lower Wholesale beef prices are providing a counterweight to the strength in live cattle. The latest Choice boxed beef value is approximately $377.31, down $1.58, while Select has fallen $5.51 to around $352.34. The decline in boxed beef prices suggests that packers are not currently receiving the same level of support from the wholesale market that cattle futures are receiving from constrained slaughter and cash prices. This creates a key market tension. If boxed beef values stabilise while cash cattle remain firm, the futures rally could receive another layer of fundamental confirmation. If boxed beef prices continue falling sharply, however, packer margins and procurement behaviour could become increasingly important. Feeder Cattle Market Signals Stronger Forward Demand Feeder cattle futures are also showing substantial strength outside the soon-to-expire September contract. September feeder cattle declined 75 cents to $336.525, while October gained $5.30 to $333.325 and November advanced $6.30 to $329.50. The CME Feeder Cattle Index stands at $336.98, down $1.76 from September 22. The contrast between the nearby September contract and the stronger October and November contracts suggests that the market is looking beyond immediate technical positioning and focusing on the forward availability and cost of feeder cattle. Higher feeder prices can eventually increase the replacement cost faced by cattle producers, potentially influencing feedlot placement decisions and future finished cattle prices. Bullish Sentiment 1. Cash Cattle Prices Remain Firm Northern dressed trade around $350 and live bids near $223 are providing strong underlying support for live cattle futures. 2. Slaughter Is Well Below Last Year Week-to-date federally inspected slaughter is more than 52,000 head below the comparable period last year. Continued reductions in slaughter could tighten beef availability. 3. Deferred Live Cattle Futures Are Strong December and February futures are posting larger gains than the October contract, indicating firm expectations for the forward cattle market. 4. Feeder Cattle Futures Are Rallying October and November feeder cattle are gaining more than $5 per hundredweight, signalling continued strength in replacement cattle values. 5. Limited Cash Trade Could Support Feedlot Negotiating Power With the latest Fed Cattle Exchange auction producing no sales, producers may continue holding cattle for stronger bids if packers require additional supplies. Bearish Sentiment 1. Boxed Beef Prices Are Falling Choice and Select beef values are both declining, with Select experiencing a particularly sharp drop. Continued wholesale weakness could eventually pressure packer demand for higher-priced cattle. 2. Packer Margins Could Become a Constraint If live cattle prices continue rising while boxed beef values decline, packers may become less aggressive in the cash market. 3. The Feeder Cattle Index Has Weakened The CME Feeder Cattle Index has declined to $336.98, showing that cash feeder values are not moving in exactly the same direction as the stronger deferred futures contracts. 4. Higher Cattle Prices Could Pressure Beef Demand Sustained increases in cattle values can eventually feed through to wholesale and retail beef prices, potentially creating resistance from price-sensitive consumers. 5. Technical Gains Could Invite Profit-Taking The broad futures rally leaves the market vulnerable to short-term profit-taking if cash trade fails to confirm the strength or boxed beef values continue deteriorating. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The $220–$223 area is becoming increasingly important for live cattle futures as October and December contracts establish a higher trading range. A sustained move above the recent highs would strengthen the bullish technical structure, particularly if cash cattle continue trading around $223 or higher and slaughter remains constrained. A failure to hold the current advance could instead expose the market to consolidation, particularly if boxed beef prices continue declining or packers become more resistant to higher cash cattle prices. For feeder cattle, the relationship between the $336.98 CME Feeder Cattle Index and the stronger October and November futures will remain important. Continued strength in deferred feeder contracts would reinforce expectations for elevated replacement costs, while weakness in the underlying index could limit further futures gains. The key scenarios are: Bullish scenario: Firm cash cattle, constrained slaughter and continued strength in feeder cattle maintain upward pressure on live cattle futures. Consolidation scenario: Cash prices remain firm but boxed beef values weaken, producing a market that holds elevated levels without extending the rally significantly. Bearish scenario: Falling boxed beef prices pressure packer margins, cash bids weaken and futures begin to converge toward lower cash and feeder cattle values. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains the central bullish factor. With federally inspected slaughter running well below last year's comparable level, the market is dealing with reduced processing throughput. If this pattern persists, available beef supplies could remain relatively constrained. The forward cattle market is therefore likely to remain sensitive to feedlot inventories, placement decisions, slaughter capacity and the willingness of producers to market finished cattle. Feeder cattle prices also matter because higher replacement costs can influence future feedlot economics and the number of cattle entering the production pipeline. Demand Outlook Beef demand is currently sending mixed signals. Firm cash cattle and strong futures suggest that the market continues to value limited cattle availability, but declining Choice and Select boxed beef prices indicate that wholesale demand is not providing uniform confirmation. The coming sessions will therefore reveal whether the decline in boxed beef is temporary or becomes a broader demand trend. Retail beef movement, foodservice demand and packer purchasing interest will be particularly important as the market assesses how much higher cattle prices can move without encountering resistance further down the supply chain. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The cattle market enters the coming sessions with tight slaughter numbers and firm cash prices supporting futures, while weaker boxed beef values provide the principal counterweight. The next round of cash cattle negotiations will be particularly important. A move toward higher completed cash sales would strengthen the futures market's current bullish structure, while weaker bids could encourage profit-taking after the recent rally. Traders will also monitor the CME Feeder Cattle Index, boxed beef values and weekly slaughter numbers for evidence that the underlying supply situation is becoming tighter or that wholesale demand is beginning to weaken. The key issue remains the same: can limited cattle availability continue to outweigh weaker wholesale beef prices? Currency Hedger View Although cattle prices are primarily driven by US livestock fundamentals, international currency movements can influence the broader economics of agricultural commodities through feed costs, trade flows and the purchasing power of overseas buyers. For businesses involved in international agricultural trading, livestock imports, feed procurement or cross-border payments, changes in the US dollar can alter the effective cost of transactions even when the underlying cattle price remains unchanged. Currency Hedger monitors global FX markets, commodities, central-bank policy and macroeconomic developments to help businesses manage international currency exposure and plan cross-border payments. For more information on managing international currency requirements, visit Currency Hedger. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Live cattle futures are showing broad strength as the market continues to price firm cash cattle values against a backdrop of sharply reduced slaughter. The combination of cash trade around $350 dressed, live bids near $223 and week-to-date slaughter more than 52,000 head below last year's comparable level provides a strong fundamental foundation for the current futures structure. However, declining boxed beef values remain an important warning signal. If wholesale prices continue weakening while live cattle futures rise, packer margins could become an increasingly important constraint. The coming sessions will therefore be defined by the interaction between cash cattle prices, slaughter levels, boxed beef demand and feeder cattle values. Confirmation from the cash market could keep the forward curve supported, while continued wholesale weakness could increase volatility. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Coffee Prices Rebound as Oversold Conditions Meet Record Global Supply Outlook

Coffee prices are showing renewed strength after falling to three-month lows, with December New York arabica coffee recovering alongside November London robusta. December arabica recently gained 3.60 cents (+1.32%), while November robusta increased 57 points (+1.75%) as technical buying and short covering provided support following the sharp sell-off of recent weeks. The recovery is developing against a fundamentally bearish global supply outlook. The International Coffee Organization is forecasting record 2025/26 global production of 183.6 million bags, while consumption is projected at 180.6 million bags, leaving the market with an estimated 3 million-bag surplus. The market is therefore facing an important conflict between abundant global production and improving crop conditions on one side, and tight arabica inventories and potential weather risks on the other. The next major price drivers will be Brazil's 2026/27 flowering conditions, Vietnam's crop development, export flows, ICE inventories, El Niño risks and whether the recent oversold rebound can attract sustained buying. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationDecember 2026 Arabica CoffeeHigher by 3.60 cents (+1.32%)November 2026 Robusta CoffeeHigher by 57 points (+1.75%)2025/26 Global Coffee Production183.6 million bags, +4.4% YoY2025/26 Global Consumption180.6 million bags, -0.9% YoYEstimated Global Surplus3 million bagsUSDA 2026/27 Global Production189.7 million bags, +6.0% YoYUSDA 2026/27 Global Ending Stocks26.3 million bagsUSDA 2026/27 Brazil Production71.9 million bags, +14% YoYBrazil August Coffee Exports4.155 million bags, +31% YoYVietnam 2026 Jan-Aug Exports1.33 MMT, +13.7% YoYICE Arabica Inventories258,415 bagsICE Robusta Inventories5,258 lots Current Coffee Price Action Coffee prices have rebounded sharply after reaching three-month lows, with technical buying becoming an important short-term driver. The decline over the previous several weeks pushed both arabica and robusta into deeply oversold territory. This has encouraged funds to cover short positions and provided buying pressure across both markets. The rebound, however, is occurring within a fundamentally well-supplied global market. That distinction is important. The latest price strength does not necessarily indicate that the underlying supply outlook has changed. Instead, the market is currently balancing technical recovery and short covering against expectations for record global production. Whether the rebound develops further will depend on whether traders begin placing greater emphasis on weather and inventory risks or return their attention to the expanding global supply outlook. Global Coffee Supply Moves Toward Record Levels The global production outlook remains one of the largest bearish factors for coffee. The International Coffee Organization expects 2025/26 global coffee production to increase 4.4% year-on-year to a record 183.6 million bags. At the same time, global consumption is projected to decline approximately 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That combination produces an estimated 3 million-bag surplus, representing the first global coffee surplus in five years. The projected surplus changes the fundamental backdrop considerably. After several years in which supply shortages and low inventories provided substantial support, the market is now moving toward a period in which production could exceed consumption. If the surplus materialises and inventories continue rebuilding, it could limit the ability of coffee prices to sustain major rallies. USDA Raises 2026/27 Production Outlook The USDA's latest forecast reinforces the expectation of abundant supply. Global coffee production during the 2026/27 season is projected at a record 189.7 million bags, an increase of approximately 6%, or 10.8 million bags, from the previous season. Arabica production is expected to increase approximately 12% year-on-year, while robusta production is projected to decline by around 0.7%. World ending stocks are forecast to increase by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. The projected increase in ending stocks is particularly important for the medium-term price outlook because it indicates that additional production could begin translating into greater physical availability. Brazil Weather Supports the Next Crop Brazil is becoming increasingly important as the market evaluates the potential size of the 2026/27 crop. The country is moving through the critical flowering period for its next arabica crop, and recent rainfall has been favourable. Somar Meteorologia reported approximately 33.4 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ended September 20, equivalent to around 242% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil's most important arabica-producing region. The current rainfall pattern is therefore potentially supportive of flowering and early crop development. If favourable moisture conditions continue through the flowering period, expectations for the next Brazilian crop could increase further. That would reinforce the bearish supply argument. El Niño Creates a Counterweight The weather outlook is not entirely bearish. The potential development of a strong El Niño pattern remains an important risk for Brazil and other coffee-producing regions. El Niño can produce significant shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns across agricultural regions, creating the possibility of both excessive rainfall and drought depending on location and timing. Coffee traders are particularly focused on Brazil's September and October rainfall because these months coincide with an important stage of flowering. If El Niño delays or disrupts rainfall in Brazil, the current positive crop outlook could deteriorate. The market therefore has to distinguish between current favourable weather conditions and the longer-term uncertainty surrounding the developing El Niño pattern. Vietnam Crop Conditions Improve Vietnam is providing another source of supply pressure, particularly for robusta. The Central Highlands, Vietnam's most important coffee-producing region, has recently benefited from abundant rainfall. Improved soil moisture should support cherry development and potentially improve production prospects for the next crop. Vietnam's export performance is already reflecting stronger availability. Coffee exports during January through August 2026 increased approximately 13.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million tonnes. Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports also increased 17.5% to approximately 1.58 million tonnes. The combination of stronger exports and improving crop conditions is keeping pressure on robusta prices. Brazil Exports Surge Brazil's harvest is reaching the export market and adding substantial volumes to global availability. Brazil exported approximately 4.155 million bags of coffee during August, an increase of 31% year-on-year and a record for the month. Arabica exports increased approximately 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports increased approximately 54% to 953,592 bags. The acceleration in exports provides immediate evidence that Brazilian coffee is becoming increasingly available to international buyers. This is particularly important because Brazil's harvest is occurring alongside expectations for another large crop in the 2026/27 season. Strong export flows could therefore remain a significant bearish influence on prices. Arabica Inventories Remain a Bullish Counterweight ICE arabica inventories provide an important counterargument to the abundant-production story. Exchange stocks recently fell to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags before recovering to approximately 258,415 bags. Although the recovery in inventories reduces some of the immediate supply pressure, stocks remain historically low. This means the physical arabica market does not yet have the same level of inventory protection implied by the record global production forecasts. If export flows fail to replenish exchange stocks quickly enough, low inventories could continue providing support to arabica prices. Robusta Inventories Move Higher The inventory picture is considerably different for robusta. ICE robusta inventories have increased to approximately 5,258 lots, the highest level in around ten months. Rising exchange stocks reinforce the broader supply pressure facing robusta. This is occurring at the same time that Vietnam is reporting stronger exports and improved growing conditions. The combination of higher inventories, stronger Vietnamese exports and improving crop prospects could keep robusta under greater pressure than arabica. Bullish Sentiment Oversold technical conditions – The sharp decline of recent weeks has encouraged short covering and technical buying. Arabica inventories remain historically low – ICE arabica stocks recently reached a 27-year low. El Niño risk – A strong El Niño could disrupt rainfall and flowering conditions in Brazil and other producing regions. Brazil flowering remains weather-sensitive – Any deterioration in rainfall during the critical flowering period could reduce 2026/27 production potential. Arabica supply remains vulnerable to weather disruptions – Low inventories leave less physical-market protection against production problems. Global consumption remains substantial – Despite the projected surplus, global consumption remains above 180 million bags. Robusta production is expected to decline – USDA projections point to a 0.7% decline in global robusta production during 2026/27. Bearish Sentiment Record global production expected – ICO forecasts 2025/26 production at 183.6 million bags. Global surplus has returned – The ICO estimates a 3 million-bag surplus for 2025/26. USDA expects another record crop – Global 2026/27 production is projected at 189.7 million bags. Brazil production outlook is strong – USDA forecasts a 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop, up 14%. Brazilian exports are surging – August exports increased 31% year-on-year to a record 4.155 million bags. Vietnam exports are increasing – January-August exports rose 13.7% year-on-year. Vietnamese growing conditions have improved – Increased rainfall is improving soil moisture and supporting cherry development. Robusta inventories are rising – ICE robusta stocks have reached a ten-month high. Global ending stocks are expected to increase – USDA forecasts world ending stocks at 26.3 million bags. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key question for coffee is whether the current recovery represents the beginning of a broader price stabilisation or primarily a technical rebound following the sharp sell-off. The market has become deeply oversold, creating room for further short covering. However, the fundamental supply outlook remains challenging. Record global production, rising Brazilian exports, improving Vietnamese crop conditions and expectations for higher global ending stocks could continue limiting upside if the weather outlook remains favourable. The main potential shift would come from weather. If El Niño begins producing adverse conditions in Brazil during the critical flowering period, production expectations could be revised lower. The market would also remain sensitive to any deterioration in Vietnam's growing conditions. Traders will therefore be watching Brazilian rainfall, flowering progress, Vietnam crop development, Brazilian exports, ICE inventories and revisions to global production estimates. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains increasingly comfortable for the global coffee market. Brazil is supplying substantial volumes into the export market as the current harvest progresses, while expectations for the 2026/27 Brazilian crop remain strong. Vietnam is also contributing to greater robusta availability through higher exports and improved growing conditions. The USDA's 189.7 million-bag global production forecast represents a significant increase from the previous season and suggests that the market could have considerably more coffee available during 2026/27. The major uncertainty is weather. A strong El Niño could alter rainfall patterns across Brazil and Asia, potentially reducing production from current expectations. For now, however, the balance of evidence points toward expanding supply. Demand Outlook Global coffee consumption remains substantial, but the latest ICO outlook points to a modest decline. Consumption is projected at approximately 180.6 million bags during 2025/26, compared with production of 183.6 million bags. The resulting surplus indicates that current demand is not sufficient to absorb the expected increase in production without some accumulation of stocks. The coming months will therefore be important for determining whether lower prices stimulate additional consumption. If demand improves as prices decline, some of the projected surplus could be absorbed. If consumption remains subdued while production continues increasing, the inventory outlook could become progressively more bearish. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coffee is entering a period where technical factors and fundamental supply expectations are pulling the market in different directions. The recent rebound has been supported by oversold conditions and fund short covering, while the broader supply outlook remains pressured by record production expectations. Brazilian exports are increasing rapidly, Vietnam is showing stronger export availability and growing conditions have improved across important producing regions. At the same time, ICE arabica inventories remain historically low, while El Niño introduces a potentially significant weather risk for Brazil's 2026/27 crop. The coming sessions will therefore focus on Brazilian rainfall and flowering, Vietnam's crop development, Brazilian export volumes, ICE inventories, El Niño forecasts and revisions to global production estimates. If favourable weather continues, the record-production outlook could remain the dominant influence. If weather conditions deteriorate significantly, particularly during Brazil's flowering period, traders could begin reassessing the current supply projections. Currency Hedger View Coffee is predominantly traded in US dollars, creating an important currency component for international coffee producers, exporters, importers, roasters and other businesses involved in the global supply chain. For companies purchasing Brazilian or Vietnamese coffee in US dollars while generating revenue in another currency, changes in the coffee price can be accompanied by changes in the underlying FX rate. A weaker local currency against the US dollar can increase the effective cost of imported coffee even when the dollar-denominated commodity price is unchanged. Businesses involved in international coffee transactions should therefore monitor both coffee prices and their underlying currency exposure. Currency Hedger provides businesses with tools and solutions for managing foreign-exchange exposure around international commodity transactions and cross-border payments. Visit www.currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Coffee is currently caught between a short-term technical recovery and a fundamentally expanding global supply outlook. The recent rebound from three-month lows has been supported by deeply oversold conditions and fund short covering, but the underlying production outlook remains challenging for prices. The ICO's projected 3 million-bag global surplus, combined with the USDA's forecast for 189.7 million bags of global production in 2026/27, points toward significantly greater availability. Brazil is already adding substantial volumes to the international market, with August exports reaching a record 4.155 million bags, while Vietnam's exports and growing conditions are also improving. The major counterweight is weather. Arabica inventories remain historically low and the potential impact of El Niño means Brazil's 2026/27 flowering period remains particularly important. Any significant deterioration in rainfall could change production expectations and provide a fresh fundamental catalyst for prices. For the coming sessions, the critical indicators will be Brazilian rainfall, flowering conditions, Vietnam's crop development, Brazilian exports, ICE arabica and robusta inventories and revisions to global production forecasts. The market therefore remains highly sensitive to whether record supply expectations are confirmed or whether weather risks begin to undermine the next crop. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Energies

September 24, 2026

Heating Oil Rebounds as Diesel Export Ban Is Denied Amid Tight US Fuel Supplies

US heating oil prices are showing renewed strength as the market reassesses domestic diesel availability following the White House denial of reports that the United States was preparing a 90-day diesel export ban. October heating oil futures remain around $4.80 per gallon, while the broader distillate market continues to trade near historically elevated levels as inventories remain well below seasonal norms. The policy outlook has changed, but the underlying supply problem remains. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the administration is instead working with refiners on voluntary measures to increase US diesel supplies without reducing refining throughput. No detailed programme has been announced and no final decisions have been made. At the same time, US distillate inventories fell by 400,000 barrels in the week ended September 18, while production declined to approximately 5.2 million barrels per day. Inventories remain around 12% below the five-year average, leaving the market with limited supply protection as the winter heating season approaches. The market is therefore increasingly focused on the interaction between low US distillate inventories, refinery output, diesel exports, global refining disruptions, crude oil prices and winter demand. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationOctober 2026 Heating OilAround $4.80/gallonOctober ULSD FuturesAround $4.83/gallonUS Distillate Inventories107.4 million barrelsWeekly Distillate Change-400,000 barrelsDistillate Inventories vs Five-Year Average12% below averageUS Distillate Production5.2 million barrels/dayUS Crude Inventories426.4 million barrelsCrude Inventories vs Five-Year AverageAround 2% above averageFour-Week Distillate Product Supplied3.6 million barrels/dayBrent CrudeAbove $100/barrelWTI CrudeAbove $90/barrel Current Heating Oil Price Action Heating oil remains highly volatile as traders balance tight physical supplies against potential government intervention. October heating oil futures recently traded around $4.83 per gallon, after falling sharply when reports emerged that the US administration could restrict diesel exports. The subsequent White House denial removed some of the expected domestic supply relief and returned attention to the underlying fundamentals. The market is now caught between two competing forces. On one side, the administration is examining ways to increase domestic diesel availability. On the other, US inventories remain substantially below normal while global refined-product supplies are being affected by geopolitical disruptions. This creates a market where relatively small changes in supply expectations can produce significant price movements. US Distillate Inventories Remain Tight The most important domestic fundamental remains the level of distillate inventories. US distillate stocks fell 400,000 barrels during the week ended September 18 to approximately 107.4 million barrels. Inventories are now around 12% below the five-year average, highlighting the continuing shortage of middle distillates ahead of the winter period. The decline is particularly significant because inventories had previously shown several weeks of improvement. The latest draw therefore suggests that the US market has not yet achieved a sustained rebuilding trend. The market will be watching upcoming inventory reports closely for evidence of whether stocks can begin moving higher before seasonal heating demand increases. Distillate Production Provides Limited Relief US distillate production declined to approximately 5.2 million barrels per day during the latest reporting week. Although US refineries are operating at relatively high utilization rates, strong refinery activity has not yet produced a sufficiently large increase in distillate inventories. This highlights an important distinction between overall refinery capacity and actual middle-distillate availability. Refiners produce multiple products from crude oil, meaning additional crude processing does not automatically translate into a proportional increase in diesel and heating oil. If refinery utilization remains high but distillate inventories continue to decline, the market could maintain a significant supply premium. Diesel Export Ban Denied The latest policy development has removed the immediate prospect of a 90-day US diesel export ban. Reports of a possible restriction initially caused diesel and heating oil prices to fall sharply because traders anticipated that fewer US barrels would leave the domestic market. The White House subsequently denied that such a ban was being prepared. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the administration was instead discussing voluntary measures with refiners to increase domestic diesel supplies while maintaining refinery throughput. No specific programme has yet been confirmed. This leaves the market watching for evidence that voluntary measures can materially increase US fuel availability. If they do, some of the current supply premium could ease. If domestic supplies remain tight, the absence of an export ban could become increasingly supportive for prices. Global Diesel Supplies Remain Constrained The US market is also being affected by developments in the global diesel market. Refinery disruptions in Russia, reduced Middle Eastern refined-product exports and continuing geopolitical instability have reduced the availability of replacement diesel barrels. Global diesel prices have reached record levels, while refineries in several regions are already operating at or near high utilization levels. This is important for the US market because international refined-product prices influence the economics of exports and imports. When global diesel becomes scarce, US refiners have a greater incentive to export products, potentially limiting the amount of fuel available domestically. That dynamic is particularly important while US inventories remain well below normal. Crude Oil Provides Additional Support Crude oil is another major influence on heating oil. Brent crude has moved above $100 per barrel, while WTI has remained above $90, as geopolitical risks continue to affect global crude and refined-product flows. Higher crude prices increase the underlying cost of producing heating oil and diesel. The relationship becomes particularly important when refined-product inventories are already tight. If crude prices remain elevated while distillate stocks remain below seasonal norms, heating oil could remain highly sensitive to further supply disruptions. Conversely, a sustained reduction in geopolitical risk could lower the crude premium and reduce some of the upward pressure on heating oil. Winter Demand Becomes Increasingly Important The timing of the inventory shortage is becoming critical. US distillate demand currently includes transportation, agriculture, industrial activity and heating requirements. The four-week average for distillate product supplied is approximately 3.6 million barrels per day, slightly below the comparable period last year. However, winter heating demand has not yet reached its seasonal peak. The market therefore faces the possibility of entering the colder months with inventories already substantially below normal. If temperatures become colder than expected or demand increases while refinery production remains constrained, inventories could decline further. Bullish Sentiment Distillate inventories remain 12% below the five-year average – The US enters the winter period with a significant supply deficit. Inventories have resumed falling – The latest 400,000-barrel decline interrupted the previous inventory-rebuilding trend. US distillate production has declined – Production has fallen to approximately 5.2 million barrels per day. Global diesel supplies remain tight – Refinery disruptions and reduced exports are restricting international availability. Russian refining disruptions – Damage and operational restrictions at Russian refineries continue to affect global refined-product supply. Middle East supply risks remain elevated – Disruptions to crude and refined-product flows are keeping the global energy market under pressure. Crude oil remains expensive – Brent above $100 and WTI above $90 provide additional support to refined-product prices. Winter heating demand is approaching – Seasonal demand could increase pressure on already-low inventories. Bearish Sentiment The US is examining measures to increase domestic diesel supply – Voluntary cooperation with refiners could improve availability. Refinery utilization remains high – US refiners still have substantial production capability. US crude inventories are relatively comfortable – Crude stocks are around 2% above the five-year average. Distillate demand is not yet accelerating – The four-week average for distillate product supplied remains slightly below the comparable period last year. Additional policy intervention remains possible – Further measures could redirect more fuel toward the domestic market. High prices can weaken demand – Elevated heating oil and diesel prices can encourage conservation and reduce consumption. Improved geopolitical conditions could reduce the supply premium – A sustained reduction in Middle East or Russian supply risks could pressure crude and refined-product prices. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key question for heating oil is whether the current supply tightness persists as the market moves toward the winter heating season. A sustained move higher would require continued evidence that US distillate inventories cannot be rebuilt quickly enough, particularly if global refinery disruptions continue and crude prices remain elevated. The market could receive some relief if US refiners increase distillate production, domestic diesel availability improves or international supply disruptions ease. The most important near-term indicators will therefore be US distillate inventories, refinery utilization, diesel exports, distillate production, Russian refinery operations, Middle East supply flows and winter demand expectations. Supply Outlook The US supply outlook remains tight despite relatively strong crude availability. Crude inventories have moved above the five-year average, but distillate inventories remain significantly below normal. The key issue is therefore not simply how much crude is available, but how much diesel and heating oil refiners can produce and retain within the domestic market. International competition for refined products is also important. If global diesel prices remain elevated, US refiners may continue to have strong incentives to export. That could make domestic inventory rebuilding more difficult unless refinery production increases substantially. Demand Outlook Demand is likely to become increasingly important as the winter heating season approaches. Current distillate product supplied remains slightly below last year's level, suggesting that demand alone is not currently responsible for the inventory tightness. The more important risk is what happens when seasonal heating demand begins increasing. Transportation, agriculture and industrial consumption will continue alongside residential and commercial heating requirements. If demand rises while refinery output remains near current levels, the existing inventory deficit could persist. If demand remains subdued and production increases, the market could gradually move toward better balance. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Heating oil is entering a highly sensitive period as traders weigh tight inventories against potential policy-driven supply relief. The denial of a 90-day diesel export ban has removed one immediate source of expected domestic supply support, but the administration is now examining voluntary measures with refiners. The physical market remains the dominant factor. US distillate inventories are approximately 12% below the five-year average, production has declined to around 5.2 million barrels per day, and global diesel supplies remain constrained by refinery and geopolitical disruptions. The approaching winter adds another layer of risk. For the coming sessions, traders will focus on EIA distillate inventories, refinery utilization, US diesel exports, production levels, global refinery disruptions, crude oil prices and changing winter demand expectations. If US inventories continue to decline while global diesel supplies remain constrained, heating oil could remain highly sensitive to additional supply concerns. If refinery production increases and domestic availability improves, the market could begin to unwind part of its current supply premium. Currency Hedger View Heating oil and diesel are predominantly priced in US dollars, creating an additional layer of exposure for international businesses purchasing energy products in dollars. For companies whose revenues or operating costs are denominated in EUR, GBP, AED or other currencies, a rise in heating oil prices can be compounded by movements in the underlying exchange rate. A business purchasing fuel in US dollars therefore needs to consider both the commodity price exposure and the FX exposure surrounding the transaction. Currency Hedger provides businesses with tools and solutions for managing foreign-exchange exposure around international commodity transactions and cross-border payments. Visit www.currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets Heating oil remains in a market where physical supply is tight and policy intervention is becoming an increasingly important variable. The latest inventory data provide the clearest indication of the underlying market condition. US distillate stocks remain approximately 12% below the five-year average, while production has declined to around 5.2 million barrels per day. The denial of a US diesel export ban changes the immediate policy outlook, but it does not remove the underlying supply deficit. The administration is instead looking at voluntary measures with refiners, leaving the market to determine whether those measures can materially increase domestic diesel availability without reducing overall refinery throughput. At the same time, global diesel supplies remain constrained by refinery disruptions, geopolitical instability and reduced refined-product flows from important exporting regions. The coming sessions will therefore be focused on US distillate inventories, refinery production, diesel exports, global refining capacity, crude oil prices and the approach of winter heating demand. The balance between additional US supply and continuing global fuel tightness will remain central to heating oil price discovery. Louis Roche – Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Cocoa Prices Rebound as West African Weather Risks Threaten the 2026/27 Crop Outlook

Cocoa prices are showing renewed strength as weather concerns across West Africa return to the forefront of the market. New York December cocoa has moved higher alongside a stronger recovery in London cocoa, with below-normal rainfall forecasts for Ivory Coast raising concerns about crop development and potential production losses during the 2026/27 season. The recovery comes after cocoa prices recently fell to multi-week lows as evidence of strong Ivory Coast production and rising exchange inventories weighed on the market. The latest move therefore reflects a renewed battle between strong current-season supply and growing concerns about the next crop. The market is now increasingly focused on West African weather, early pod development, disease pressure, exchange inventories and the trajectory of global cocoa demand. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationDecember 2026 NY CocoaHigher by 126 points (+2.33%)December 2026 London CocoaHigher by 130 points (+3.25%)Ivory Coast 2025/26 Harvest2.06 MMT, +30% YoYIvory Coast Port Shipments2.14 MMT, +18% YoYICE Cocoa Inventories3,437,710 bagsIvory Coast 2026/27 Early Crop Estimate~1.8 MMTGhana 2026/27 Estimate650,000 MTStoneX 2026/27 Global Surplus25,000 MTTransgraph 2026/27 Global Surplus80,000 MTEuropean Q2 Grindings316,366 MT, -4.6% YoYNorth American Q2 Grindings109,659 MT, +7.7% YoYAsian Q2 Grindings224,646 MT, +25% YoY Current Cocoa Price Action December New York cocoa is currently recovering after falling to a 1.75-month low, while London cocoa has also rebounded strongly. The move higher is being driven primarily by renewed concern over West African weather. Forecasts for below-normal rainfall in Ivory Coast over the coming week could place additional stress on cocoa trees and raise questions about the development of the 2026/27 main crop. The recovery is particularly notable because the market had been under pressure for several weeks as traders responded to strong production data and rising exchange inventories. This creates an important distinction between the current physical supply situation, which remains relatively well supplied, and the forward crop outlook, where weather and disease risks are becoming increasingly important. Ivory Coast Production Remains Strong Ivory Coast remains the central focus of the global cocoa market. The country's cocoa regulator reported that 2.06 MMT of cocoa was harvested between June 2025 and June 2026, an increase of approximately 30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier. Cumulative shipments to ports during the international cocoa marketing year reached approximately 2.14 MMT, up 18% from the comparable period. These figures demonstrate that current-season production has been considerably stronger than the previous season. However, there is an important timing distinction. Ivory Coast has moved its own marketing year forward to September 1, while international statistics continue to use an October 1 start date. Reuters data based on the new Ivory Coast marketing year showed deliveries of only 26,000 MT during September 1–13, down 45.8% from the comparable previous-season period. This difference in reporting periods needs to be considered when interpreting shipment data. 2026/27 Ivory Coast Crop Faces Weather Risk The next crop is now becoming the more important fundamental story. Early surveys indicate below-average cherelle formation, poor pod development and a weaker initial outlook for the 2026/27 crop. Current early estimates place Ivory Coast production at approximately 1.8 MMT, around 18% below the estimated 2.2 MMT produced during 2025/26. The latest rainfall forecasts add another layer of uncertainty. Below-normal rainfall over the coming week could increase stress on cocoa trees at an important stage of crop development. If dry conditions persist, concerns over yields could intensify. The market will therefore be highly sensitive to changes in West African weather forecasts. Ghana Production Outlook Weakens Ghana provides another important source of medium-term supply risk. The Cocoa Board estimates that the 2026/27 crop could reach approximately 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT during 2025/26. COCOBOD has also indicated that production could potentially fall into a much wider range of 450,000 to 550,000 MT, citing swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and the potential impact of adverse El Niño-related weather. The contrast with the current season is significant. Ghana harvested approximately 750,000 MT during 2025/26, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. The market therefore has to balance a very strong current crop against a potentially much weaker next season. ICE Cocoa Inventories Rise to Multi-Year High One of the clearest bearish signals is the level of exchange inventories. ICE cocoa inventories have risen to approximately 3.44 million bags, the highest level in around 2.25 years. Higher inventories suggest that immediate physical availability is considerably more comfortable than it was during the period when cocoa prices were reaching extreme highs. Barry Callebaut has also indicated that the global cocoa market is currently well supplied and better positioned to absorb weather-related risks than during the 2023/24 El Niño period. This remains an important counterweight to the developing 2026/27 crop concerns. El Niño Remains a Medium-Term Weather Risk Weather remains one of the most significant variables for the next production cycle. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. A stronger El Niño can produce warmer and drier conditions across parts of West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture and placing additional stress on cocoa trees. If those conditions persist into key stages of crop development, production estimates could be revised lower. For now, however, the market still needs confirmation that the weather pattern is translating into meaningful production losses. Global Cocoa Balance Tightens The projected global balance for 2026/27 has become significantly tighter than earlier forecasts suggested. StoneX has reduced its projected global surplus to just 25,000 MT, down from 149,000 MT in its previous estimate. Transgraph Consulting is forecasting an 80,000 MT surplus, down from 415,000 MT in 2025/26, while also expecting global production to decline from 5.11 MMT to 4.87 MMT. The common theme is that the global balance is moving toward a much smaller surplus. If West African production deteriorates further, the market could potentially move from a small surplus into deficit. Bullish Sentiment Below-normal Ivory Coast rainfall – Drier conditions could stress cocoa trees and reduce 2026/27 production potential. Weak early crop development – Below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development point to production risks in Ivory Coast. Lower Ghana crop expectations – Ghana's 2026/27 production is expected to decline significantly from the previous season. Tightening global balance – StoneX now sees only a 25,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. El Niño risk – A strong El Niño could produce warmer and drier conditions across major West African growing regions. Asian demand remains strong – Q2 Asian grindings increased 25% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations. North American demand improved – North American Q2 grindings increased 7.7%, contradicting some expectations for weakening demand. Bearish Sentiment High ICE inventories – Exchange stocks have risen to approximately 3.44 million bags, a 2.25-year high. Strong Ivory Coast current production – The latest harvest increased approximately 30% year-on-year. Higher Ivory Coast shipments – Shipments under the international marketing-year calculation are up approximately 18%. Global market currently well supplied – Barry Callebaut has described the global cocoa market as well supplied. European demand remains weak – European Q2 grindings declined 4.6% to their lowest Q2 level in six years. Small global surplus remains possible – Even after downward revisions, major forecasts still generally point to a small surplus rather than an immediate global deficit. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key question for cocoa is whether the current rebound develops into a sustained recovery or remains a short-term reaction to weather forecasts. The market has already demonstrated that it can move sharply when West African weather expectations change. A sustained bullish move would require increasing evidence that below-normal rainfall, poor pod development, disease and El Niño conditions are translating into materially lower 2026/27 production. Conversely, continued strong current-season shipments, high ICE inventories and subdued European demand could limit the upside. The next major catalyst is likely to be the evolution of Ivory Coast rainfall and crop-development data. If weather forecasts deteriorate further, traders could begin pricing a larger 2026/27 production deficit. If rainfall improves and crop conditions stabilise, the market may refocus on the substantial inventories currently available. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is increasingly divided between two different periods. Current-season supply remains relatively strong, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana. This is reflected in higher harvest figures, strong shipments and elevated exchange inventories. The 2026/27 outlook is considerably less comfortable. Early crop surveys indicate weaker pod development in Ivory Coast, while Ghana faces disease, ageing farms and potential weather disruptions. The most important question is whether these risks translate into actual production losses. The market is likely to react aggressively to any revisions to Ivory Coast and Ghana production estimates. Demand Outlook Global cocoa demand remains mixed by region. European grindings declined 4.6% in Q2, falling to the lowest Q2 level in six years. This points to continuing pressure on European processors and chocolate demand. North American grindings, however, increased 7.7%, while Asian grindings surged 25%. The regional divergence means global demand cannot be described simply as either strong or weak. The coming quarters will be important because sustained demand growth outside Europe could help absorb higher prices, while continued weakness in European processing could limit the market's ability to sustain a major rally. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cocoa is moving into a more weather-sensitive phase. The market has already demonstrated strong downside sensitivity to rising inventories and strong Ivory Coast production, but it is now responding to concerns about the next crop. The immediate focus should remain on Ivory Coast rainfall, crop development, Ghana production expectations and ICE inventories. A sustained deterioration in West African weather could rapidly tighten the 2026/27 balance and shift attention away from current inventories. However, if weather conditions improve while current-season shipments remain strong, the large inventory base could continue to limit the upside. Demand will provide the additional confirmation. Stronger Asian and North American grinding data could help absorb tighter supply, while continued weakness in Europe would remain a counterweight. Currency Hedger View Cocoa is globally priced in US dollars and London cocoa is also particularly sensitive to movements in sterling. The recent decline in the British pound has provided an additional boost to London cocoa because the commodity becomes relatively more attractive when priced in a weaker sterling environment. For cocoa producers, processors and international buyers, currency movements can therefore have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical cocoa. Businesses purchasing or selling cocoa across currencies should monitor both the underlying commodity price and the associated FX exposure. Currency Hedger provides businesses with tools and solutions for managing foreign-exchange exposure around international commodity transactions and cross-border payments. Visit www.currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Cocoa is entering a critical period in which the market must reconcile strong current-season supply with a potentially much tighter 2026/27 crop. The latest Ivory Coast harvest and shipment figures remain bearish, while ICE inventories at a 2.25-year high demonstrate that immediate physical availability is considerably more comfortable than during the previous cocoa supply crisis. The forward outlook is different. Below-average cherelle formation, weaker Ghana production expectations, disease pressure and the potential impact of El Niño are creating legitimate risks for the next crop. The latest weather forecasts therefore have the potential to become increasingly important to price discovery. For the coming sessions, the critical indicators will be West African rainfall, crop development, Ivory Coast and Ghana production estimates, ICE inventories and regional cocoa grindings. If weather conditions deteriorate and production estimates continue to fall, the market could begin pricing a much tighter 2026/27 balance. If current supply remains abundant and demand remains uneven, the recent recovery could face renewed resistance. Louis Roche - Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Sugar Prices Hold Firm as Brazil Harvest Delays and Global Supply Risks Clash With Weak Demand

Sugar markets remain caught between competing fundamental forces. New York sugar is finding support from concerns that persistent rainfall in Brazil could slow the Center-South harvest, while longer-term supply risks in India and Thailand continue to underpin the global balance. However, the upside remains constrained by evidence of weak physical demand and increasingly large speculative long positions. The latest StoneX estimate also reduced its projected 2026/27 global deficit to 900,000 metric tons, compared with its previous estimate of 1.7 million tons, reducing some of the bullish momentum that had pushed sugar sharply higher earlier in September. The market is therefore entering a period where weather, production estimates, physical demand and speculative positioning are likely to determine the next major move. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationOctober 2026 NY Sugar #1117.72 cents/lb, +0.16December 2026 London White Sugar$510.30/MT, -$1.90StoneX 2026/27 Global Balance900,000 MT deficitPrevious StoneX Estimate1.7 MMT deficitISO 2026/27 Balance200,000 MT deficitISO 2025/26 Balance1.1 MMT surplusThailand 2026/27 Production Estimate10 MMTIndia Monsoon15% below normal as of Sept. 23India Raw Sugar Import AllowanceUp to 1 MMT duty-freeUSDA 2026/27 Global Production184.854 MMTUSDA 2026/27 Global Consumption179.991 MMTUSDA 2026/27 Ending Stocks44.410 MMT Current Sugar Price Action New York October sugar is currently around 17.72 cents per pound, while December London white sugar is around $510.30 per metric ton. The mixed performance highlights the uncertainty surrounding the market. Sugar recently reached a 17.25-month high on September 10 on expectations of a developing global deficit, but prices subsequently retreated as traders began focusing more heavily on physical demand and the possibility that global supply estimates could improve. The latest StoneX revision is particularly important. Its projected 2026/27 deficit has been reduced from 1.7 MMT to 900,000 MT, suggesting that the global balance may be tighter than historical surplus years but not as constrained as previously expected. Brazil Harvest Weather Remains a Key Catalyst Brazil remains the single most important supply variable for the global sugar market. Recent rainfall across Brazil is slowing the sugarcane harvest, creating concerns about the pace at which cane can be processed. Any prolonged disruption could reduce near-term sugar availability and potentially increase competition between sugar production and ethanol. Brazil's Center-South region is particularly important because it represents the world's largest concentration of sugar production. Earlier data from Unica showed Center-South June sugar production falling 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 MMT, highlighting the sensitivity of Brazilian output to harvest conditions. Weather developments across Brazil will therefore remain one of the most important drivers of sugar prices. India Supply Outlook Is Becoming More Complicated India is another major source of uncertainty. Cumulative monsoon rainfall was 15% below normal as of September 23, although the deficit has improved substantially from 42% below normal at the end of June. The Indian Meteorological Department has warned that the current monsoon could become the country's weakest in 17 years. This is important because India is the world's second-largest sugar producer and relies heavily on the monsoon to support sugarcane yields. India has also authorised up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31. The decision is significant because India normally operates as a major sugar exporter and has not imported substantial volumes since the 2017/18 season. The import allowance suggests that domestic supply conditions remain an important concern despite longer-term forecasts for higher production. Thailand Production Faces Downside Risk Thailand remains another major supply concern. The Thai Sugar Millers Corporation has projected 2026/27 production at approximately 10 MMT, representing a potential 17% year-on-year decline. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, meaning any significant reduction in production could tighten the exportable global balance. The USDA is somewhat less bearish, forecasting Thai production at 9.5 MMT, still representing a substantial year-on-year decline of 15.6%. The difference between private and government-linked estimates highlights the uncertainty surrounding the coming crop. Global Sugar Balance The global supply picture remains mixed. The International Sugar Organization expects: 2025/26 production: 182 MMT 2025/26 balance: 1.1 MMT surplus 2026/27 production: 180.1 MMT 2026/27 balance: 200,000 MT deficit This represents a significant change from the surplus expected for 2025/26. StoneX previously projected a larger 2026/27 deficit of 1.7 MMT but has now reduced that figure to 900,000 MT. Covrig Analytics previously shifted its outlook from a 100,000 MT surplus to a 300,000 MT deficit, while Czarnikow has projected a much larger 2.9 MMT deficit for 2027/28. The forecasts therefore point in broadly the same direction — tighter medium-term supply — but differ significantly on the scale of the potential deficit. Speculative Positioning Could Increase Volatility Fund positioning is another important factor. The latest Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their net long New York sugar position by 791 contracts to 161,342 contracts. That is the largest net-long position in almost three years. The size of the speculative position creates two opposing effects. If supply concerns intensify, large existing long positions could reinforce upward momentum. However, if production expectations improve or demand remains weak, funds could begin liquidating those positions, potentially accelerating a downside move. The recent decline from the September high therefore needs to be viewed alongside positioning rather than price alone. Bullish Sentiment Brazilian harvest delays – Rainfall is slowing Center-South harvesting, potentially restricting near-term sugar availability. India's weak monsoon – Rainfall remains below normal and creates uncertainty around cane yields and future production. India allowing duty-free imports – The decision to permit up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports indicates domestic supply concerns. Thailand production risks – Private estimates point to a substantial decline in Thai production, tightening export availability. 2026/27 global deficit – Even after the StoneX revision, the market is still projected to remain in deficit. Potential El Niño impact – Weather risks across Brazil, India and Thailand could reduce global production further. Strong speculative positioning – Large fund long positions indicate that traders remain positioned for tighter supply conditions. Bearish Sentiment StoneX reduced its deficit forecast – The projected 2026/27 deficit has been cut from 1.7 MMT to 900,000 MT. Weak physical demand – The large London October delivery of 499,350 MT points to subdued physical demand. Large speculative long position – A significant fund position increases the risk of long liquidation if the market weakens. 2025/26 global surplus – The current season remains well supplied, with ISO forecasting a 1.1 MMT surplus. Potentially higher Indian production – The USDA forecasts India's 2026/27 production to increase 12% to 33.6 MMT. Higher global stocks – USDA forecasts 2026/27 ending stocks at 44.410 MMT, up 2% year-on-year. Production estimates remain divergent – Different agencies continue to forecast substantially different global balances, creating uncertainty over how tight the market actually is. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The sugar market is now approaching a critical point after retreating from its September high. The key question is whether the recent decline represents a correction within a broader tightening supply cycle or the beginning of a deeper adjustment driven by weak demand and improving production expectations. For the bullish scenario to regain momentum, traders will likely need confirmation that Brazilian rainfall is materially reducing harvest volumes and that India and Thailand face additional production losses. A renewed move toward the September highs would become more plausible if global deficit estimates begin moving higher again. Conversely, continued weakness in physical demand, improved Brazilian harvesting conditions or further reductions in projected deficits could keep sugar under pressure. The large fund net-long position also means that any significant fundamental deterioration could amplify downside volatility through liquidation. Supply Outlook The medium-term supply outlook remains highly dependent on weather. Brazilian harvest progress is the immediate focus, while India's monsoon and Thailand's cane crop represent the major risks for the next production cycle. The ISO's forecast of 180.1 MMT of global production for 2026/27 implies a decline from the previous season, while USDA estimates are considerably higher at 184.854 MMT. The gap between these estimates shows how uncertain the global supply picture remains. The next round of production data from Brazil, India and Thailand will therefore be critical in determining whether the projected deficit expands or contracts. Demand Outlook Demand is currently one of the weaker parts of the sugar story. The large 499,350 MT delivery against the expired London October contract is particularly important because it indicates that physical demand has not kept pace with the bullish supply narrative. If demand remains subdued while production estimates improve, sugar could struggle to sustain higher prices. However, if lower production begins to tighten physical availability and demand stabilises, the current deficit forecasts could regain greater influence over prices. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Sugar is entering the next phase with a clear conflict between tightening medium-term supply risks and weaker near-term demand. Brazilian rainfall and harvest progress will remain the immediate catalyst. Any evidence that the weather is materially reducing cane processing could quickly restore bullish momentum. At the same time, traders will monitor India's monsoon, Thailand production expectations and changes to global deficit estimates. Fund positioning adds another layer of risk. With speculative net longs near a three-year high, the market could experience larger-than-normal moves in either direction as traders adjust exposure. The key signal for the coming sessions will be whether supply concerns begin outweighing the evidence of weak physical demand. Currency Hedger View Sugar is traded internationally in US dollars, making currency movements an important consideration for producers, refiners, importers and commercial buyers. A stronger dollar can increase the effective cost of sugar for buyers using other currencies, potentially adding pressure to international demand. Conversely, a weaker dollar could improve purchasing power for non-dollar buyers and provide additional support to commodity demand. For businesses with significant sugar purchases or sales denominated in US dollars, managing the underlying FX exposure can be just as important as monitoring the sugar price itself. Currency Hedger provides solutions for businesses managing international currency exposure around commodity transactions and cross-border payments. Visit www.currencyhedger.com for more information. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Sugar remains fundamentally divided between a potentially tightening 2026/27 supply balance and clear signs that current physical demand is not sufficiently strong to support the market at recent highs. Brazilian harvest delays, India's weak monsoon and the possibility of lower Thai production continue to provide a bullish foundation. However, the reduction in StoneX's deficit forecast to 900,000 MT demonstrates how quickly the supply outlook can change as new production data becomes available. The large London October delivery and elevated speculative long positioning are equally important. If physical demand remains weak, funds could become a source of additional selling pressure rather than support. For the coming sessions, the focus should remain on Brazilian harvest progress, Indian weather, Thai production estimates, global balance revisions and speculative positioning. A renewed deterioration in production expectations could bring the global deficit narrative back to the forefront, while improving supply estimates and weak demand would leave the market vulnerable to further liquidation. Louis Roche - Today Markets

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Markets

September 24, 2026

Cotton Futures Gain as Physical Prices Strengthen While the Dollar and Crude Oil Set the Next Direction

Cotton futures are currently finding support across most actively traded contracts, with the market balancing firm physical prices and limited certified stocks against a stronger US dollar and higher crude oil prices. The latest futures structure shows the market maintaining a firmer tone into the deferred contracts, while thinly traded October remains under pressure as traders look beyond the nearby delivery period. Physical cotton indicators are also providing support. The latest sales reported through The Seam remain active, while the Cotlook A Index is trading substantially above nearby ICE futures. At the same time, ICE certified stocks remain relatively limited, keeping attention focused on available deliverable supplies as the market moves toward the next stage of the season. Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationOctober 2026 Cotton78.91 cents/lbDecember 2026 Cotton82.89 cents/lbMarch 2027 Cotton85.65 cents/lbThe Seam Sales2,859 balesThe Seam Average Price79.69 cents/lbCotlook A Index93.65 cents/lbICE Certified Stocks29,556 balesLatest AWP68.92 cents/lbCrude Oil+$2.19/barrelUS Dollar Index+$0.531 Current Cotton Price Action December cotton is currently trading around 82.89 cents per pound, while March 2027 stands at 85.65 cents. The stronger performance in deferred contracts indicates that traders are placing greater emphasis on the medium-term supply and demand balance rather than simply the immediate delivery market. October cotton is the exception, with the thinly traded contract at 78.91 cents, down 78 points. The weakness in October is therefore less representative of the broader market tone than the more actively traded December and March contracts. The structure remains important because the premium in deferred contracts suggests the market is pricing continued uncertainty around supply availability and future demand. Physical Cotton Market Remains Supportive The latest activity reported through The Seam shows 2,859 bales sold at an average price of 79.69 cents per pound. That physical-market price is notable because it remains close to the December futures market and demonstrates that cash-market values continue to provide a foundation underneath futures prices. The Cotlook A Index is considerably higher at 93.65 cents per pound, highlighting the difference between the ICE futures market and broader international physical cotton pricing. This spread will remain an important indicator for traders because sustained strength in physical cotton prices could eventually provide additional support for futures. ICE Certified Stocks and Deliverable Supply ICE-certified cotton stocks currently stand at 29,556 bales, after a reduction of 37 bales. Although the latest change is small, the relatively limited level of certified stocks remains relevant to the nearby futures market. Traders will continue watching whether certified inventories increase as the season progresses or remain constrained. If certified stocks remain low while physical demand stays firm, nearby cotton contracts could receive additional support. Adjusted World Price The latest Adjusted World Price stands at 68.92 cents per pound, down 59 points in the most recent calculation. The AWP is scheduled for another update, making the next figure important for assessing the relationship between US cotton values and international pricing. Changes in the AWP can influence the competitiveness of US cotton in export markets and therefore have implications for future demand. Crude Oil and the US Dollar Cotton is also being influenced by broader commodity-market conditions. Crude oil has strengthened by approximately $2.19 per barrel, providing some underlying support to the broader commodity complex. Higher energy prices can also increase agricultural production, transportation and processing costs, potentially providing longer-term support to cotton values. At the same time, the US dollar index has gained 0.531, creating a counterweight for cotton. A stronger dollar generally makes US-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers. If the dollar continues to strengthen, export demand could face additional pressure. The interaction between the dollar and physical cotton prices is therefore likely to remain important over the coming sessions. Bullish Sentiment Firm physical cotton prices – The Seam's latest average of 79.69 cents/lb indicates continued underlying value in the physical market. High Cotlook A Index – The 93.65-cent Cotlook A Index remains significantly above nearby futures, highlighting firm international physical pricing. Limited certified stocks – ICE-certified stocks of only 29,556 bales keep attention focused on deliverable supply. Strength in deferred futures – December and March contracts are trading above October, reflecting continued uncertainty around future supply and demand. Higher crude oil prices – Rising energy costs can increase agricultural and processing expenses while supporting the broader commodity complex. Potential AWP changes – The upcoming AWP update could alter the competitiveness of US cotton and provide a new catalyst for export-related demand. Bearish Sentiment Stronger US dollar – A firmer dollar increases the cost of US cotton for international buyers and could limit export demand. Weak nearby October contract – October cotton remains under pressure, suggesting some weakness around the immediate delivery market. Thin trading in October – The limited liquidity of the October contract can amplify price movements and makes the nearby decline less representative of the broader market. Export competitiveness – If the dollar remains firm while international cotton prices soften, US cotton could become less competitive in global markets. Demand uncertainty – Without a sustained improvement in downstream textile demand, higher futures prices could encounter resistance. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key technical and fundamental question is whether December cotton can maintain its position above the 82-cent-per-pound area and continue moving toward the mid-80s represented by the March contract. A sustained move higher would require continued support from physical prices, limited deliverable stocks and improving demand expectations. Conversely, a stronger dollar combined with weaker export demand could place pressure on December futures and narrow the premium currently visible in deferred contracts. The next major catalyst is likely to come from the combination of the updated Adjusted World Price, physical-market activity, certified-stock changes and currency movements. Supply Outlook The immediate supply picture remains closely linked to the availability of physical cotton and the pace at which additional supplies become available to the market. ICE certified stocks remain relatively limited, while the difference between the Cotlook A Index and ICE futures indicates that physical cotton continues to command a significant premium. Traders will therefore watch inventory developments closely. A meaningful increase in certified stocks could ease concerns about nearby availability, while continued tightness could provide support to futures. Demand Outlook Demand remains the critical variable for the next sustained move. The physical market is showing evidence of continued activity, but the stronger US dollar presents a potential obstacle for US export competitiveness. For cotton futures to establish a stronger upward trend, traders will want to see evidence that international demand can absorb higher prices despite currency headwinds. The relationship between US futures, the Cotlook A Index and the AWP will therefore remain important in assessing the competitiveness of US cotton. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cotton enters the coming sessions with a mixed but fundamentally interesting setup. The market has support from firm physical values, relatively limited certified stocks and stronger deferred futures, while the stronger dollar remains a significant counterweight. The next AWP update could provide an important fresh signal, particularly for the competitiveness of US cotton in export markets. Traders should also monitor ICE certified stocks, The Seam sales and the spread between futures and international physical prices. If physical demand remains firm and certified stocks stay constrained, the market could continue to find underlying support. However, a sustained dollar rally or deterioration in export demand could limit the upside. Currency Hedger View For international cotton buyers and sellers, the currency component remains increasingly important. The combination of a stronger US dollar and firm cotton prices can materially change the effective cost of physical cotton for overseas buyers. Companies purchasing cotton in US dollars should therefore monitor both the commodity price and the underlying currency exposure rather than treating them as separate risks. Currency Hedger focuses on helping businesses manage foreign-exchange exposure around international transactions, allowing companies to consider the currency component alongside their underlying commodity requirements. For more information, visit www.currencyhedger.com. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Cotton is currently positioned between supportive physical fundamentals and a potentially restrictive currency environment. The firm Cotlook A Index, relatively low ICE-certified stocks and stronger deferred futures suggest that the underlying market is not showing signs of abundant readily deliverable supply. However, the stronger US dollar remains a clear risk to international demand, particularly if it extends its gains. The next AWP update, changes in certified inventories and physical-market activity will therefore be critical in determining whether the current support can develop into a broader move higher. For the coming sessions, the most important signal will be whether physical cotton strength continues to translate into futures buying. If it does, December and March contracts could remain supported. If export competitiveness deteriorates as the dollar strengthens, the market could instead face renewed pressure despite the firm physical-price indicators. Louis Roche - Today Markets

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Energies

September 23, 2026

Trump wants to ban U.S. diesel exports. Another shock for global markets?

U.S. President Donald Trump has backed restrictions on diesel exports from the United States, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the administration is examining both a full and a partial ban. No decision has yet been made, but Trump said it should come quickly. This marks a significant shift in the administration’s stance, as it had previously been skeptical about restricting fuel exports. If approved, such a move could represent a major blow to global diesel supply. The reason is straightforward: diesel prices in the U.S. have reached levels that are beginning to matter not only for drivers, but for the broader economy. According to the EIA, the average retail price of diesel stood at $6.52 per gallon on September 21, compared with $5.96 just two weeks earlier. AAA reported a record average of around $6.53 per gallon on September 22. At first glance, an export ban therefore looks like a simple solution: if more diesel stays in the U.S., domestic supply should increase and prices should fall. But the refined-products market is far more complicated. An export ban may only appear to lower prices The most immediate effect would indeed probably be supportive for the U.S. market. Barrels of diesel that currently go to Mexico, Latin America, Europe and other destinations would have to be sold domestically. The increase in local supply would put downward pressure on wholesale prices and, over time, potentially on prices paid by distributors and at fuel stations. The potential scale of the impact is far from marginal. The United States is one of the world’s largest exporters of refined petroleum products. In 2025, exports of major transportation fuels averaged around 2.4 million barrels per day, with distillates, of which diesel is the most important component, accounting for more than half of that volume. In April 2026, distillate exports climbed to as much as 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2017. Redirecting even part of these volumes to the domestic market could therefore quickly lower spot prices on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the center of the country’s refining and export industry. The problem is that lower prices on the Gulf Coast would not automatically translate into equally large declines in diesel prices in Iowa, New York or California. Refined products still have to move physically through pipelines, terminals, rail networks and storage infrastructure, while regional logistical constraints mean that the U.S. fuel market is not fully uniform. The biggest problem: the U.S. does not produce diesel independently of gasoline and jet fuel A refinery is not a factory that can simply decide one day to produce only diesel. A single barrel of crude oil yields a basket of products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG and other components. In June 2026, around 43.8% of U.S. refinery output consisted of gasoline, approximately 29.6% of distillates and 12.4% of jet fuel. On the Gulf Coast, distillates accounted for around 31.5%. This is crucial for understanding the risk. If an export ban were to cause a sharp drop in Gulf Coast diesel prices, refinery economics would also begin to deteriorate. Refiners do not look at the price of one product in isolation. They assess the value of the entire fuel basket relative to the cost of crude oil. In an extreme scenario, export restrictions could therefore create a paradox: initially, they would increase diesel supply in the U.S. and push prices lower, but at the same time they would weaken refining margins. If some plants responded by cutting throughput, meaning the volume of crude oil processed, production of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel could begin to decline. This is why Trump acknowledged that restrictions on diesel exports could also affect the gasoline market, while the administration is analyzing the consequences for the entire refining system. The real problem today lies in refining margins, not just crude oil prices The current diesel market is unusual because the rise in prices is not being driven solely by expensive crude oil. The EIA points out that diesel prices are currently being supported by both high crude prices and very elevated crack spreads, meaning the difference between the price of a refined product and the cost of the crude oil required to produce it. Crack spreads are among the most important market measures of refinery profitability. Global supplies of refined products have been constrained by geopolitical disruptions and outages affecting part of global refining capacity. According to Axios, around 7–8% of global refining capacity is currently offline, while restrictions affecting Russia and broader disruptions to fuel flows are adding further pressure to the diesel market. This means crude oil can stabilize or even decline while diesel remains extremely expensive. For consumers, the price of Brent or WTI is only one part of the equation. Between crude oil and the price paid at the pump lie refining, logistics, wholesale distribution, taxes and retail margins. The world could lose around 1.5 million barrels per day of U.S. distillate exports From the perspective of the global market, a full export ban would be a much more serious event than from the perspective of the United States itself. The U.S. currently acts as a kind of “swing supplier” of refined products. When shortages emerge elsewhere, competitive Gulf Coast refineries can increase exports and redirect fuel toward markets where prices are highest. In the spring of 2026, when disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz boosted global demand for U.S. fuels, total U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day. Distillate exports alone averaged around 1.6 million barrels per day in April. Removing a substantial part of this supply from the global market would mean that importers would have to compete for diesel from alternative sources. The most exposed economies would be those heavily dependent on U.S. diesel. Poland imports only relatively small volumes of diesel from the United States. Mexico, by contrast, is one of the key destinations for U.S. fuels. In June alone, more than 7.6 million barrels of distillates were shipped there from the Gulf Coast, equivalent to around 256,000 barrels per day. The result could be higher refined-product prices across Latin America and other import-dependent markets, as well as stronger competition for supplies from Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Why could the ban eventually feed back into higher prices in the U.S.? This is the central paradox of the proposal. In the first stage, the mechanism is simple: more diesel remains in the U.S., domestic inventories rise and wholesale prices fall. But only up to a point. In the next stage, the situation becomes more complicated. The U.S. restricts exports, global diesel supply declines, international refined-product prices rise and crack spreads outside the U.S. widen. That, in turn, alters global trade flows as well as the prices of feedstocks and blending components. At the same time, U.S. refiners lose the ability to sell part of their output into the most profitable overseas markets. If domestic prices are artificially pushed below global levels, the incentive to maximize production may weaken. This is precisely why some analysts cited by Axios argue that an export ban could temporarily reduce prices in the United States, while simultaneously raising them abroad and eventually feeding higher costs back into the U.S. economy. Diesel is particularly important for inflation. Could refiners face a problem? The economic importance of diesel is much greater than its direct share of household spending might suggest. Heavy trucking, large parts of agriculture, construction machinery, logistics and parts of industry all rely heavily on diesel. Higher diesel prices increase the cost of transporting food, raw materials and virtually every good moving through supply chains. That is why diesel is one of the fuels whose price increases can relatively quickly feed into core inflation through higher transportation and production costs. With prices now above $6.50 per gallon, pressure on farmers, hauliers and logistics companies is therefore much greater than it was a year ago. According to AAA data, the current average diesel price is almost $2.83 per gallon higher than a year earlier. This helps explain why the administration is considering a measure that until recently appeared unlikely. From a financial-market perspective, it is important to separate crude producers from refiners. For oil producers, the impact would be indirect. Refinery demand for crude could fall only if weaker margins eventually led to lower throughput. For refinery operators, however, the consequences would be direct. Companies with assets on the Gulf Coast currently benefit from the ability to arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets. Exports allow them to sell diesel wherever its value is highest. A ban would restrict that flexibility. The initial market reaction would therefore likely be a narrowing of U.S. diesel crack spreads relative to overseas benchmarks. At the same time, crack spreads in Europe or Latin America could widen. This helps explain opposition from the refining industry. The American Petroleum Institute argues that the market needs more supply and greater flexibility rather than export restrictions, as such measures could deepen existing problems. This is the position of an industry lobby and should be distinguished from an independent assessment of the regulation’s effects. A full ban and a partial restriction are two completely different scenarios The key variable for the market now will be the design of any potential regulation. A full ban would be a highly aggressive measure and could trigger a sharp restructuring of global fuel flows. Partial restrictions, a licensing system or temporary export limits would give the administration more control over domestic inventories while still allowing refiners to serve key overseas customers. This is why Bessent confirmed that the administration is assessing both full and partial options and examining how restrictions would affect U.S. refining capacity. For the fuel market, this distinction is critical. Cutting exports by a few hundred thousand barrels per day could primarily act as a mechanism for rebuilding domestic inventories. A complete withdrawal of U.S. diesel from the global market, however, would amount to an internationally significant supply shock. The diesel market is entering a difficult phase The idea of restricting exports primarily shows just how tight the global refined-products market has become. The United States has substantial refining capacity and is a major diesel exporter, but it does not operate in isolation from the rest of the world. U.S. refiners buy crude oil, produce several fuels at the same time and direct them toward markets where the price structure offers the highest returns. An export ban could therefore quickly increase domestic diesel availability and push U.S. wholesale prices lower , particularly on the Gulf Coast. That does not mean an equally large decline would automatically appear at the pump across the entire country. Over a longer horizon, the key issue would be how refiners respond. If lower domestic diesel prices led to a meaningful decline in margins and refinery throughput, the initial increase in supply could eventually be partially reversed. That is why the market will now focus on three things more than on the headline itself: the scale of the restrictions, how long they would remain in force, and whether the administration allows refiners to continue exporting part of their output. These factors will determine whether the regulation remains a short-term tool for lowering U.S. prices or becomes another source of disruption in an already exceptionally tight global fuel market. LSAGASOIL diesel futures chart (D1 timeframe) We can see that diesel futures have declined less than Brent crude prices and remain close to historical highs. News of a potential U.S. export ban has provided additional support for the bulls. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 23, 2026

OECD lifts projections for global economy amid AI boom

The OECD estimates that the global economy is performing somewhat better in 2026 than expected just a few months ago, despite the energy shock triggered by the war with Iran. Support has come not only from investment related to artificial intelligence, but also from the release of part of global oil reserves, lower energy imports by China and a shift by some consumers toward alternative fuels, including coal. As a result, the impact of constrained supply from the Persian Gulf region has so far been smaller than economists initially feared. However, the organization stresses that the outlook for the global economy remains heavily dependent on whether a durable resolution to the conflict in the Middle East can be achieved. New OECD forecasts The OECD raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.9% from 2.8%, and for 2027 to 3.0% from 2.9%. U.S. economic growth is expected to reach 2.2% in 2026, up from 2.0% previously, and 2.1% in 2027, compared with an earlier forecast of 1.8%. China’s 2026 growth forecast was left unchanged at 4.5%, while the 2027 forecast was lowered to 4.2% from 4.3%. The OECD raised its forecast for Japan’s 2026 growth to 0.8% from 0.6%, while for 2027 it expects growth of 0.7%, down from the previous 0.8%. Eurozone GDP growth in 2026 was revised up to 1.0% from 0.8% in June, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.0%, down from the previous 1.2%. AI helps sustain growth as the world absorbs the energy shock better than expected The most important positive factor remains the investment boom surrounding artificial intelligence . The OECD points out that spending on data centers, semiconductors and broader AI infrastructure has become one of the key pillars of economic resilience in 2026. The effect is particularly visible in the United States, while strong demand for technology is also supporting exports from Japan and South Korea. At the same time, the global economy has so far coped better than expected with energy supply constraints related to the war with Iran. The release of part of global oil reserves, a significant decline in Chinese energy imports and increased use of alternative fuels, including coal, have all helped. These mechanisms have softened the direct impact of reduced oil supply from the Persian Gulf region. This does not mean that the risks have disappeared. The OECD warns that renewed or more persistent disruptions to energy supplies would mean both higher inflation and weaker growth. In practice, the future direction of the global economy therefore remains heavily dependent on the durability of any potential agreement in the Middle East. As shown in the chart below, CAPEX among companies investing in AI continues to rise sharply, although the pace of growth is beginning to slow somewhat, while operating cash flows continue to expand at an almost exponential rate. Source: OECD The semiconductor business has become clearly more profitable relative to software, which historically has not been the norm. Source: XTB Research Inflation remains higher, leaving central banks with less room for maneuver The OECD raised its inflation forecast for G20 economies. In 2026, prices are expected to rise by an average of 4.1%, compared with 4.0% projected in June, while in 2027 inflation is forecast at 3.6%, up from the previous 3.1%. This is an important change because it points to a slower disinflation process. If pressure from higher energy prices begins to spread more broadly into services, wages and core inflation, central banks may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer. From a market perspective, this also complicates the outlook for bonds. Rising yields increase financing costs for both companies and governments, while high levels of public debt mean that a growing share of budgets must be allocated to debt servicing. Source: OECD OECD warns of a build-up of risks in 2027 The list of risks remains broad. In addition to further tensions in energy markets, the OECD points to an exceptionally strong El Niño, which could reduce agricultural output and push food prices higher. Other risks include a further rise in bond yields and the possibility that returns on the enormous investments currently being made in the AI sector may disappoint. If these factors were to occur simultaneously, the OECD estimates that global growth in 2027 could be as much as 0.7 percentage points lower, while inflation could be around 1.1 percentage points higher. The risks related to AI are particularly important because technology investment is currently one of the factors supporting global activity. If markets were to begin questioning future returns from spending on data centers and semiconductors, the potential impact would not be limited to technology-sector valuations alone. U.S. benefits from the AI boom, but households face growing pressure The OECD raised its U.S. growth forecast to 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. In both cases, the forecasts are higher than in June, primarily due to strong investment related to artificial intelligence. At the same time, conditions for the U.S. consumer are becoming less comfortable. The OECD points to declining purchasing power, slower growth in labor supply and the gradual depletion of household savings. Additional pressure comes from tariffs and higher energy prices, which are increasing both living costs and business expenses. U.S. inflation is expected to reach 3.6% in 2026 before falling to 2.6% in 2027. This means the Fed may continue to face an economy that is growing relatively quickly while remaining exposed to persistent price pressures. China is slowing, but lower energy imports are helping the global market The OECD kept its China growth forecast at 4.5% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027. The economy is still expected to slow gradually, partly due to measures by Beijing aimed at reducing excess capacity in parts of the industrial sector. At the same time, the clear decline in Chinese energy imports was one of the factors limiting the global impact of the oil shock. Weaker demand from the world’s largest commodity importer has partly reduced price pressure at a time of constrained supply from the Middle East. The eurozone remains one of the weakest links Eurozone GDP growth is expected to reach 1.0% in both 2026 and 2027. The main constraints remain high energy prices and restrictive financial conditions. Rising defense spending may provide some support, although the OECD does not expect it to be sufficient to generate a meaningful acceleration across the broader economy. Eurozone inflation is expected to reach 3.0% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. The gas market remains a particular risk, as European storage facilities enter the heating season with inventories at their lowest level in 15 years. The UK is performing better, while the inflation forecast falls sharply The OECD raised its forecast for UK growth in 2026 to 1.1%, from 0.9% expected in June. Growth is expected to be supported, among other factors, by consumption and new fiscal measures aimed at households. At the same time, the inflation forecast for this year was lowered to 3.1% from 3.7%, as prices rose more slowly than previously expected. In 2027, however, growth is expected to slow to around 1.0%, compared with 1.1% forecast previously. The UK also remains vulnerable to rising bond yields, as higher financing costs add pressure to public finances. Japan grows more slowly, but inflation may accelerate Japan is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027. Strong business investment is being offset by higher interest rates and more expensive energy imports. Unlike most major economies, however, the OECD expects inflation in Japan to accelerate. It is projected to rise from 1.8% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027, partly due to a tight labor market and strong wage growth. Canada takes a clear hit from new U.S. tariffs Canada’s growth forecast was cut to 0.9% in 2026 from 1.2% previously. For 2027, the OECD expects growth of 1.3%, compared with 1.7% projected in June. The main problem is new U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, which are worsening the outlook for trade and investment. As a result, Canada remains one of the economies most directly exposed to changing trade conditions in North America. Rising debt is becoming another risk for the economy Another risk highlighted by the OECD is the growing pressure associated with public debt. High bond yields mean that advanced economies must finance their needs at significantly higher costs than just a few years ago. The IMF warns that successive economic shocks are systematically pushing debt levels higher, while governments are adjusting fiscal policy too slowly to rising debt-servicing costs. Combined with high spending on defense, the energy transition and AI infrastructure, this may further limit fiscal space in the years ahead. The overall picture presented by the OECD is therefore fairly unusual: the global economy is proving more resilient than feared after the outbreak of the war with Iran, but that resilience currently rests on strong technology investment and mechanisms that are partially cushioning the energy shock. The longer high energy prices and bond yields persist, however, the more difficult it may become to maintain this balance in 2027. The euro is weakening against the U.S. dollar despite very solid PMI readings from the European economy. EURUSD chart (H1 timeframe) Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Trade of the day – GOLD

Facts As of 11:20 a.m. on September 23, GOLD is down 0.94%, retreating to around $4,320 per ounce. The rebound in gold prices following the Federal Reserve’s September 15 decision has been largely erased. Gold is trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200) and failed to break above this level on September 18 and 19. As many as 16 of 18 Fed policymakers expected at least one more rate hike in 2026 as of September. Recommendation Short position on GOLD at the current market price. Take profit: 4,250; 4,000 Stop loss: 4,410 Opinion Gold is facing a growing problem: a stronger U.S. dollar and a lack of fresh upside catalysts. No new source of momentum emerged despite the pullback in oil markets, pushing the price down toward $4,320 per ounce and erasing a significant portion of the gains recorded in late summer, when the metal briefly traded above $4,600. The market is increasingly facing an unfavorable short-term environment for gold, while CFTC data show that bullish positioning ahead of the Fed decision had become extremely crowded among large speculators, potentially suggesting that some of them are now gradually exiting the market. According to the latest CoT report, large speculators (Managed Money) held 142,394 long contracts compared with just 9,278 shorts, resulting in a net position of +133,116 contracts. This points to a very strong speculative bias toward higher prices: Managed Money longs accounted for as much as 34.7% of total open interest, while shorts represented just 2.3%. Such positioning reflected strong confidence among funds in the bullish trend, but at the same time meant that the market had only a limited pool of speculative shorts that could be forced into further short covering. In the final week before the Fed decision, based on data as of September 15, Managed Money reduced long positions by 3,410 contracts while also closing 1,554 shorts. As a result, the net long position declined by only 1,856 contracts, from +134,972 to +133,116. This does not yet look like a sharp shift in fund sentiment. Instead, it resembles a moderate reduction in exposure and leverage following a very strong move in gold rather than an attempt to build a clearly bearish position. The decline in total open interest by 1,328 contracts is also important. Combined with the reduction in Managed Money longs, it suggests that some capital was leaving the market rather than large new short positions being established. As long as funds are primarily reducing longs rather than aggressively adding shorts, the CoT report points to weakening speculative momentum rather than an outright reversal. Such a reversal may, however, become more visible in subsequent data. The most interesting signal in the report emerges when Managed Money positioning is compared with that of physical-market participants, known as commercials. The data show that Producer/Merchant and Swap Dealers remain heavily net short, but both groups clearly reduced that exposure during the first half of September. Producer/Merchant improved their net position from approximately -30,961 to -28,061 contracts, a change of 2,900 contracts. An even larger adjustment was recorded by Swap Dealers, whose net short position declined from around -239,313 to -233,660 contracts, an improvement of 5,653 contracts. Combined, these two commercial groups reduced their directional net short exposure by approximately 8,553 contracts over the week. This was substantially larger than the 1,856-contract decline in the Managed Money net long position. This should not automatically be interpreted as a signal that “commercials are buying gold.” Producers primarily use futures to hedge future production, while Swap Dealers often take the other side of client exposure and manage risk across multiple markets. A decline in their short positions therefore primarily indicates a reduced need for hedging or a reduction in existing exposure. For CoT analysis, the direction and pace of changes in these positions are therefore more important than the simple fact that commercials remain net short. The current setup resembles a partial market “reset”: Managed Money is taking some profits and reducing longs, while commercials are using the same phase to cover part of their short exposure. This is qualitatively different from a classic late-stage bull market, in which funds aggressively add longs while commercials respond by building even larger short positions. Here, both sides are reducing exposure, which, together with the decline in open interest, points more toward deleveraging than the establishment of a new directional trade. The key interpretation is therefore that gold still shows very strong positioning among large speculators, although that positioning has started to lose momentum. At the same time, commercials are not using elevated speculative long exposure as an opportunity to build additional shorts. Instead, they are covering part of their existing short positions. From a CoT perspective, this is not yet a classic topping structure, but neither is it a “clean” continuation signal. Even before the Fed decision, the gold market appeared to be entering an initial phase of positioning normalization, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone has intensified that process. With both technical and fundamental conditions deteriorating, including a more restrictive stance from the Fed and other central banks, we recommend a short position on GOLD with two take-profit levels at 4,250 and 4,000 and a stop-loss order at 4,410, set slightly above the EMA200 but near levels that could prove to be an important resistance area from a price-action perspective. GOLD chart (D1 timeframe) From a technical perspective, the situation in gold has also deteriorated noticeably. The metal failed to remain above its 200-day EMA (red line) for an extended period and continues to trade in the upper range of the downward price channel that formed around the turn of January and February 2026. Source: xStation5 Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders

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Banks

September 23, 2026

Swiss Franc: SNB preview signals steady policy – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee expects the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% at the September 24 meeting, despite higher energy prices and a modest uptick in headline inflation. He sees scope for a near-term inflation forecast upgrade, but notes that Swiss growth has improved and CHF haven pressures have eased against EUR and GBP. SNB stance, inflation and haven demand "The Swiss National Bank has little reason to follow the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank into tightening at its September 24 meeting." "The SNB is nevertheless likely to raise its near-term inflation forecast as elevated energy prices feed through into the economy amid persistent uncertainty in the Middle East." "The SNB may also pay closer attention to the second-round effects highlighted in its June minutes, including processed food, transport, tourism, and restaurants." "The hawkishness of any forecast upgrade will depend less on higher near-term inflation than on whether the SNB sees the oil shock feeding into underlying inflation." The SNB could also temper its language on FX intervention. In June, it expressed “an increased willingness to intervene to counter a rapid and excessive CHF appreciation,” framing the concern in terms of price stability and broader activity in its export-led economy." "Those concerns have since eased. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs has raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.7% from its 0.9% projection in June. 2Q26 GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% QoQ (2.8% YoY) from 0.6% QoQ (0.5% YoY) in 1Q26." "Meanwhile, the CHF has surrendered more than half of its post-Liberation Day gains against the EUR and GBP. SNB should view the Fed and ECB hikes as providing a stronger counterweight to haven demand for the CHF."

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Banks

September 23, 2026

Oil: Geopolitics drive volatile price path – Rabobank

Rabobank strategist Michael Every notes Oil prices are currently lower on hopes for de-escalation in multiple conflicts, including developments around Saudi infrastructure, Iran talks and Ukraine. However, Every stresses that hardened positions in Iran, Russia and broader security shifts mean energy prices could still change dramatically depending on how major geopolitical deals and confrontations evolve. Conflicts and deals steer Oil prices "Oil is down on hopes for ‘peace in our time.’ The Saudi east-west pipeline will start again at lower capacity, China warned the Houthis not to block the Red Sea, Trump negotiators held a “very productive” three-hour meeting with the Iranians in New York, Iran floated reopening Hormuz in seven days if the US lifts its blockade, and Ukraine’s Zelenskyy stated Kyiv and Washington want that other war to end “before winter” and is ready for an “energy ceasefire.”" "Yet elsewhere the question looks like ‘war at what time?’ Iran has hardened its demands for ending the war, and Trump just publicly threatened it with “annihilation”, then met with the Arab states expected to attack Tehran alongside it if that were to occur." "In Russia, two more oil refineries were just hit, and bomb shelters in Moscow and St Petersburg are quietly being modernised." "If certain deals are struck, if certain countries are struck, if certain market flows are struck, energy prices can change dramatically – and then, suddenly, central bankers will be saying very different things." "Those who listen only to them will think they are ahead of the curve rather than seeing they are behind the geopolitical and geoeconomic ones."

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Banks

September 23, 2026

Japanese Yen: Downside still favoured toward 158.40 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a constructive short-term view on USD/JPY after the pair closed at 157.37. They still see scope for further US Dollar (USD) strength, with intraday moves expected within 157.10–157.90 and firm resistance at 158.40. Strong support is revised up to 156.45, while their longer-term note warns that rapid downside momentum could eventually target the January low at 152.08. Dollar-Yen holds bullish bias above support "24-HOUR VIEW: USD rose to 157.52 on Monday. When it was at 157.30 yesterday, we pointed out that “despite the advance, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum.” However, we indicated that “there is a chance for USD to rise further today, even though any advance is likely to stay within a 156.90/157.80 range.” USD subsequently rose to a high of 157.77, declined sharply to 156.80 and then rebounded to close marginally higher by 0.01% at 157.37. There is still a chance for USD to rise today, but with no clear increase in upward momentum, this time round, any advance is likely to stay within a range of 157.10/157.90." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a positive USD view since early last week. Yesterday (22 Sep, spot at 157.30), we indicated that “further USD strength seems likely, but given the overbought conditions, any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 158.40.” We also highlighted that “to keep the momentum going, USD must hold above the ‘strong support’ level at 156.20.” We continue to hold the same view, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level higher to 156.45."

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Softs

September 23, 2026

Palm Oil Dips to Near Six-Week Low

Malaysian palm oil futures extended recent losses, hovering below MYR 4,750 per tonne and nearing a six-week low, pressured by weaker edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges and a further drop in crude oil prices on hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict at the UN. Export signals were also weak, with cargo surveyors estimating shipments fell between 12.8%–24.7% mom during September 1–20, while EU imports for the 2026/27 season plunged 26% to 0.56 million tonnes. Still, losses were limited by stronger demand prospects in top consumer India, where August palm oil imports rose 7% from July to 782,761 tonnes, the highest since February, as refiners replenished stocks ahead of festivals. On the supply side, the world's largest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is expected to face a shorter-than-usual wet season from November, potentially affecting crop conditions. Meanwhile, Malaysia raised its October CPO reference price but kept the export duty unchanged at 10%.

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Iron Ore Prices Rise Above CNY 710 as Brazil Supply Risks Clash With Weak Chinese Steel Demand

Iron ore futures in China are currently trading above CNY 710 per ton, recovering from recent weakness as renewed supply concerns provide support despite continuing pressure from China's steel and construction sectors. The market is being pulled in opposite directions. Potential supply disruptions in Brazil and rising shipping costs for smaller Brazilian producers are tightening the supply outlook, while expectations of Chinese steel-mill restocking ahead of the extended Golden Week holiday in early October are providing near-term demand support. However, China's steel industry remains under pressure. Elevated coking coal prices, weaker steel-mill profitability and softer construction and manufacturing activity are limiting the strength of underlying iron ore consumption. Iron Ore Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationIron Ore PriceAbove CNY 710/tonShort-Term TrendRecoveringSupply RiskRisingBrazilWeather-related disruption concernsBrazilian Smaller ProducersHigher shipping costs to ChinaChinese Steel MillsPotential pre-holiday restockingSteel ProfitabilityUnder pressureCoking CoalElevatedChina ConstructionSofterChina ManufacturingSofterKey Bullish DriverBrazilian supply risksKey Bearish DriverWeak steel-sector profitability Iron Ore Price Outlook: Supply Concerns Support the Recovery The recovery above CNY 710 per ton reflects growing attention on the supply side of the iron ore market. Brazil remains a critical source of seaborne iron ore, and concerns over El Niño-related weather conditions have raised the possibility of disruptions to production and transportation. The supply risk becomes more significant because smaller Brazilian producers are facing sharply higher shipping costs when transporting material to China. Higher freight costs reduce producer margins and can make some production uneconomic. If these conditions persist, some smaller miners may respond by reducing output, tightening the amount of available material reaching the world's largest consumer. The market is therefore beginning to price a potential supply constraint even while demand remains uncertain. Brazil Supply Risks Could Become More Important Brazil's role in the global iron ore market means weather-related disruptions can quickly attract attention from Chinese buyers and commodity traders. El Niño conditions can affect rainfall patterns and operating conditions across producing regions. Any sustained disruption to mining, transportation or port activity could reduce Brazilian shipments. The situation involving smaller producers is particularly important because higher freight costs can effectively raise the delivered cost of Brazilian ore into China. If shipping economics continue deteriorating, production cuts among smaller suppliers could further tighten the seaborne market. Chinese Steel Mills Could Boost Near-Term Demand A major source of support is the possibility that Chinese steel mills will increase purchases ahead of the extended Golden Week holiday in early October. Pre-holiday restocking can create a temporary increase in raw-material demand as mills seek to secure inventories before the holiday period. This could provide iron ore with a near-term demand boost even if broader steel consumption remains subdued. The important question is whether restocking represents genuine improvement in steel demand or simply a temporary inventory adjustment. If mills replenish aggressively, iron ore prices could remain supported in the near term. If restocking is limited because profitability remains weak, the effect could quickly fade. Chinese Steel Profitability Remains a Major Headwind The biggest obstacle to a sustained iron ore rally remains the profitability of Chinese steel mills. Steel producers are facing elevated coking coal costs after safety inspections and mine suspensions in Shanxi restricted domestic coal supply. Higher coking coal prices increase steelmaking costs and squeeze margins. When steel mills are operating with weak profitability, their incentive to increase production and aggressively purchase iron ore becomes more limited. This creates a direct link between the coking coal market and iron ore demand. Construction and Manufacturing Demand Remain Soft China's construction and manufacturing sectors continue to provide a weaker demand backdrop for ferrous metals. Slower construction activity reduces demand for steel used in buildings, infrastructure and related projects, while softer manufacturing activity can reduce steel consumption across industrial supply chains. This means that even if mills restock ahead of Golden Week, the broader demand environment remains uncertain. For iron ore, sustained price appreciation will ultimately require more than short-term inventory replenishment. It would require evidence that steel production and end-user demand are strengthening. Bullish Sentiment Brazilian supply risks are increasing, with weather disruptions creating uncertainty around production and shipments. Higher shipping costs are squeezing smaller Brazilian producers, potentially encouraging production cuts. Chinese steel mills may restock ahead of Golden Week, creating additional near-term iron ore demand. Any disruption to Brazilian exports could tighten the seaborne market quickly. Supply-side risks can have an amplified impact when buyers are attempting to rebuild inventories. A recovery in Chinese steel demand would provide additional upside potential for iron ore. Bearish Sentiment Chinese steel-mill profitability remains weak, limiting the incentive to increase production. Elevated coking coal prices are increasing steelmaking costs. Shanxi mine restrictions and safety inspections have tightened coking coal supply and increased input costs. China's construction sector remains soft, reducing demand for steel and iron ore. Manufacturing weakness continues to weigh on ferrous-metal consumption. Golden Week restocking could be temporary, meaning short-term buying may not translate into sustained demand growth. Iron Ore Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The CNY 710-per-ton area is now an important reference point for the market. A sustained move higher would suggest that supply concerns and pre-holiday restocking are becoming strong enough to overcome weak steel-sector fundamentals. The next stage of the rally would require evidence that steel mills are willing to maintain higher operating rates and continue purchasing raw materials despite compressed margins. Conversely, failure to maintain prices above current levels would indicate that weak Chinese steel demand remains the dominant force. The most important indicator will be whether Chinese mill restocking develops into sustained demand or remains a short-term pre-holiday inventory adjustment. Iron Ore Supply Outlook The supply outlook has become more uncertain. Brazilian production and exports remain central to the market, with weather-related disruption risks potentially affecting supply. Higher freight costs are also creating economic pressure for smaller producers shipping material to China. If production cuts emerge, the impact could be amplified by China's position as the dominant seaborne iron ore consumer. However, the magnitude of the impact will depend on the duration of the disruptions and whether other suppliers can compensate for reduced Brazilian volumes. Chinese Iron Ore Demand Outlook China remains the decisive factor on the demand side. The potential for steel-mill restocking before Golden Week provides an immediate source of support, but the underlying demand picture remains less convincing. Weak construction and manufacturing activity continue to limit steel consumption, while high coking coal costs are squeezing mill profitability. The market therefore needs to distinguish between inventory demand and end-user demand. If mills are simply replenishing inventories ahead of the holiday, the impact may be temporary. If restocking coincides with improving steel orders and stronger mill utilization, the demand outlook would become considerably more supportive. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Iron ore is currently being supported by a combination of Brazilian supply concerns and expectations of Chinese pre-holiday restocking, but the market still faces significant demand-side obstacles. The supply story is becoming more important as weather risks affect Brazil and high shipping costs squeeze smaller producers. On the demand side, Golden Week provides a potential short-term catalyst as Chinese steel mills prepare for the extended holiday period. However, weak steel profitability remains a major limitation. For the coming sessions, traders are likely to monitor: Iron ore prices around CNY 710 per ton Brazilian weather and production conditions Brazilian export and shipping costs Production decisions by smaller Brazilian miners Chinese steel-mill restocking Steel-mill profitability Coking coal prices Shanxi mining restrictions Chinese construction activity Chinese manufacturing demand Steel production and mill operating rates The central question is whether supply risks and pre-holiday buying can outweigh China's weaker underlying steel demand. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees China's currency and commodity demand as important components of the broader iron ore outlook. Iron ore is heavily exposed to Chinese industrial activity, while the commodity is traded within a global dollar-linked pricing environment. Changes in China's economic expectations, the yuan and international freight costs can therefore influence the economics of purchasing imported ore. For businesses involved in international steel and raw-material procurement, the combination of iron ore pricing, freight costs and currency movements can materially affect delivered costs. The current market reinforces the importance of monitoring the commodity and currency exposures together, particularly while China's steel margins remain under pressure. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Iron ore is currently benefiting from a shift in attention toward supply risk, but the demand picture remains considerably more complicated. The recovery above CNY 710 is being supported by concerns over Brazilian supply, particularly as El Niño-related weather risks combine with higher shipping costs for smaller producers. If these pressures force some producers to reduce output, the seaborne market could tighten further. At the same time, Chinese steel mills may provide a temporary demand boost through restocking ahead of Golden Week. The problem is that the broader steel industry remains under pressure. High coking coal prices are squeezing margins, while weaker construction and manufacturing activity is limiting end-user demand. This makes the coming period particularly important because pre-holiday restocking needs to be separated from genuine improvement in China's steel consumption. If Chinese mills restock aggressively while Brazilian supply becomes increasingly constrained, iron ore could remain supported and become more sensitive to supply disruptions. If restocking proves temporary and weak steel profitability continues to restrict production, the market could struggle to sustain higher prices. For now, CNY 710 remains an important reference level as traders weigh tightening supply risks against the continuing weakness in China's underlying steel demand.

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Zinc Prices Slip Toward $3,880 as Stronger Dollar Meets Tightening Global Supply

Zinc prices are currently trading around $3,880 per ton, with a stronger US dollar creating near-term pressure on the market. Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary has supported the dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers and limiting upward momentum across the base-metals complex. However, zinc's downside is being constrained by a tightening physical supply picture. Chinese production has declined, major mines are working through lower-grade ore, treatment charges remain under pressure, and LME inventories are historically low. These factors are creating an increasingly important divide between short-term macroeconomic pressure and underlying physical-market tightness. Zinc Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationZinc PriceAround $3,880 per tonShort-Term PressureStronger US dollarUS Monetary PolicyHawkish signalsChinese Zinc OutputDown 1.8% year-on-year in AugustChinese ProductionLowest since May 2025Mine SupplyLower output at major operationsTreatment ChargesNegative spot treatment chargesLME InventoriesHistorically lowPhysical MarketTight, particularly in Western marketsKey Bullish DriverConstrained refined and mined supplyKey Bearish DriverStrong US dollar and restrictive rates Zinc Price Outlook: Dollar Strength Limits Near-Term Gains The immediate pressure on zinc is coming from the currency market. Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary has strengthened the US dollar by reinforcing expectations that US monetary policy could remain restrictive. Because zinc is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback increases the effective cost for buyers using other currencies. This can weigh on demand expectations across the industrial-metals complex, particularly if higher interest rates also begin to affect global manufacturing and construction activity. The key question for zinc is whether currency-related selling pressure can continue to overcome the increasingly tight physical supply environment. Chinese Zinc Production Is Showing Signs of Tightening China's zinc production fell 1.8% year-on-year in August, marking its first annual decline in almost a year and the lowest production level since May 2025. The decline reflects several pressures across the Chinese zinc industry, including: Smelter maintenance Mining disruptions Negative spot treatment charges Reduced availability of suitable concentrate Pressure on smelter economics Negative treatment charges are particularly important because they indicate that smelters are facing tighter availability of zinc concentrate. If this trend continues, China's refined zinc supply could remain constrained into the coming months, potentially providing support to international prices even if the broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging. Global Mine Supply Is Also Becoming More Constrained The supply concerns extend beyond China. Major mines including Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska are recording lower production as operators work through lower-grade sections of their ore bodies. Lower ore grades can create a structural challenge for the zinc market. Even when mining operations remain active, declining grades can reduce the amount of metal produced from the same mining infrastructure. This means the market may face a period in which new supply struggles to grow quickly enough to compensate for declining output from established operations. LME Inventories Highlight Physical Tightness One of the strongest fundamental signals for zinc is the level of LME inventories. Inventories remain historically low, while physical tightness is particularly acute across Western markets. Low exchange inventories matter because they reduce the buffer available to absorb unexpected disruptions in mining, smelting or logistics. If industrial demand remains stable while inventories continue to decline, the market could become increasingly sensitive to even relatively small supply disruptions. This creates the potential for zinc prices to react sharply to new production problems. Korea Zinc Accident Adds Another Supply Risk An industrial accident was reported recently at Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter. No production cut, maintenance shutdown or suspension of operations has been announced, meaning the immediate impact on zinc supply remains unclear. Nevertheless, the incident highlights the operational risks facing the global smelting sector. With inventories already historically low and treatment charges under pressure, any confirmed reduction in refined production could have a greater market impact than it would in a well-supplied environment. Bullish Sentiment Global zinc inventories remain historically low, leaving limited stock available to absorb supply disruptions. Chinese zinc production fell 1.8% year-on-year in August, its first annual decline in almost a year. Negative spot treatment charges indicate significant pressure on the availability of zinc concentrate. Major mines are experiencing lower production as operations move through lower-grade ore. Western physical markets remain particularly tight, increasing the risk of regional shortages. Any confirmed disruption at major smelters, including Korea Zinc's Onsan operation, could quickly tighten the refined market. Bearish Sentiment A stronger US dollar makes zinc more expensive for buyers outside the United States. Hawkish Federal Reserve policy could keep interest rates elevated and weigh on industrial activity. Higher borrowing costs can reduce demand from construction, manufacturing and other zinc-intensive sectors. A sustained dollar rally could create additional pressure across the wider base-metals complex. Any improvement in Chinese smelter availability could partially relieve current supply constraints. Zinc Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The $3,880-per-ton area is an important near-term reference point as traders assess whether macroeconomic pressure or physical-market fundamentals will dominate. A sustained move lower would indicate that dollar strength and concerns about industrial demand are gaining control of the market. However, a stabilization around current levels followed by renewed buying would reinforce the argument that tight inventories and constrained mine and smelter supply are beginning to outweigh currency-related pressure. The most important development to monitor is therefore the relationship between LME inventories, Chinese production and the US dollar. If inventories continue to remain exceptionally low while Chinese production stays constrained, zinc could become increasingly sensitive to supply-side developments. Zinc Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains one of the market's most important bullish factors. Chinese production has weakened, while major international mines are dealing with lower-grade ore and production disruptions. At the same time, negative treatment charges indicate that smelters are operating in an environment of tight concentrate availability. The market does not currently have a large inventory cushion. This means the balance could tighten further if mining disruptions persist or smelter output is reduced. The situation at Korea Zinc's Onsan facility will also remain relevant. While no production impact has been announced, any future operational restriction would add another potential source of pressure to an already constrained market. Zinc Demand Outlook Demand remains closely tied to the health of global industrial activity. Zinc is heavily linked to steel production and galvanizing, making construction, infrastructure and manufacturing important components of the demand outlook. A stronger dollar and restrictive monetary policy can weigh on these sectors by increasing financing costs and reducing economic activity. However, the supply situation means that zinc does not necessarily require exceptionally strong demand to remain supported. With inventories already historically low, relatively stable consumption could be sufficient to keep the physical market tight if production continues to decline. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Zinc is currently caught between macro pressure from the US dollar and increasingly tight physical fundamentals. The dollar is creating a clear headwind, particularly while Federal Reserve officials continue to signal caution over inflation and monetary easing. But the physical market is telling a different story. Chinese production has fallen, treatment charges are under pressure, major mines are producing less from lower-grade ore, and LME inventories remain historically low. That combination means that additional supply disruptions could have an outsized impact on prices. For the coming sessions, traders are likely to focus on: The direction of the US dollar Further Federal Reserve interest-rate signals Chinese zinc production Smelter maintenance and operating rates Treatment charges for zinc concentrate LME warehouse inventories Production at Antamina and Red Dog Developments at Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter Evidence of changes in global industrial demand The central question is whether macro-driven selling can continue while the physical zinc market becomes progressively tighter. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the US dollar as an important short-term variable for zinc. A stronger dollar can create immediate pressure on dollar-denominated metals, particularly when it is accompanied by expectations of higher US interest rates. However, currency movements need to be considered alongside the physical market. Zinc's exceptionally low inventories and tightening concentrate availability could ultimately become more important if supply disruptions continue. For international businesses exposed to zinc prices, the combination of commodity exposure and USD exchange-rate exposure is particularly relevant. A movement in zinc prices can be amplified or offset by changes in the currency used to purchase or settle the metal. Monitoring both factors is therefore important when assessing future procurement costs and hedging requirements. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Zinc's current weakness is being driven primarily by the macroeconomic side of the market, but the underlying physical fundamentals remain increasingly difficult to ignore. The stronger US dollar is creating an immediate headwind, while hawkish Federal Reserve commentary is maintaining expectations for restrictive monetary policy. That environment can weigh on industrial commodities through both currency effects and concerns about future economic activity. But zinc is not entering this period from a position of abundant supply. Chinese production has already declined 1.8% year-on-year, treatment charges are under pressure, major mines are dealing with lower-grade ore, and LME inventories remain historically low. These are important signals that the physical market has limited room to absorb additional disruptions. The Onsan accident is another factor to monitor, although there is currently no confirmed production reduction. The key issue for the coming period is therefore whether the dollar remains strong enough to suppress zinc prices despite tightening physical fundamentals. If supply continues to deteriorate while inventories remain exceptionally low, the market could become increasingly vulnerable to sharp price reactions whenever a new production disruption emerges. For now, zinc remains a market where short-term macroeconomic pressure is competing directly with longer-term supply constraints, making inventory levels, Chinese production and the US dollar the critical indicators for the next major move.

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Gold Price Under Pressure Below $4,350 as Fed Hawkishness Challenges Record Investment Demand

Gold is currently trading below $4,350 an ounce, with the precious metal remaining under pressure as a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook offsets support from falling oil prices and exceptionally strong investment demand from China. The market is now balancing two competing forces: expectations that persistent inflation could keep US interest rates higher for longer, and structural demand for gold as investors continue to seek protection against economic, geopolitical and currency risks. The latest Federal Reserve commentary has strengthened the argument for caution on further monetary easing. At the same time, declining oil prices are beginning to reduce one of the major inflation risks facing policymakers. This creates a complicated environment for gold, where lower energy prices can reduce inflation expectations while continued demand for the metal provides an important underlying support. Gold Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SituationGold PriceBelow $4,350/ozShort-Term TrendUnder pressureFederal ReserveHawkish inflation signalsOil PricesFalling, easing inflation pressureUS Rate OutlookHigher-for-longer riskChinese Gold ImportsAbove 1,000 tons through AugustInvestment DemandStrongKey Bullish DriverChinese demand and safe-haven interestKey Bearish DriverHigher-for-longer US interest rates Gold Price Outlook: Fed Hawkishness Keeps Pressure on the Market Gold's immediate direction remains closely linked to the US interest-rate outlook. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced concerns that inflation may not return to the central bank's 2% target as quickly as previously hoped. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that inflationary shocks could take time to fade, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated support for the latest rate increase because of concerns that inflation could remain above target. For gold, the implication is important. A prolonged period of elevated interest rates increases the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as bullion. If Treasury yields and real yields remain supported, gold could face continued short-term selling pressure. The key question for the market is whether these hawkish signals represent a temporary adjustment in expectations or the beginning of a more sustained repricing of the US rate outlook. Falling Oil Prices Could Change the Inflation Equation Crude oil prices are providing an important counterweight to the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns. Oil has continued to decline as diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran raise the possibility of improving energy flows and reducing geopolitical supply risks. US officials have described discussions with Iranian representatives as very positive, while Tehran has indicated that the Strait of Hormuz could potentially reopen within seven days if US military pressure is eased and the blockade of Iranian ports is lifted. Lower oil prices could gradually reduce inflationary pressure across the global economy. For gold, this creates two opposing effects. Lower energy prices may reduce the likelihood of additional aggressive monetary tightening, which can eventually become supportive for bullion. However, if falling oil prices also reduce geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand, that could remove another source of support. Chinese Gold Demand Provides a Major Structural Support One of the strongest arguments against a deeper gold correction is the scale of Chinese demand. China's gold imports through August have already exceeded 1,000 tons, surpassing the country's total imports for the whole of 2025. This is significant because it demonstrates that demand for physical gold remains exceptionally strong even while international prices are trading at elevated levels. Chinese investment demand can provide an important floor beneath the market if speculative positioning weakens. Continued buying from China also reinforces the broader structural case for gold as a store of value and portfolio diversification asset. The market will therefore be watching whether Chinese demand remains strong enough to absorb periods of Western investment outflows caused by higher interest-rate expectations. Federal Reserve Policy Remains the Critical Macro Driver Gold remains particularly sensitive to expectations surrounding US monetary policy. If inflation remains persistent, Federal Reserve officials may continue to argue for restrictive policy. That would support the US dollar and potentially keep Treasury yields elevated, creating a headwind for gold. However, falling oil prices could help reduce headline inflation in the coming months. If energy costs continue to decline and broader inflation pressures moderate, markets could eventually begin pricing a less restrictive Fed policy path. This makes upcoming inflation data, employment data and further Federal Reserve communication particularly important for gold's next major directional move. Bullish Sentiment Chinese physical demand remains exceptionally strong, with imports already exceeding the full-year 2025 total. Gold retains structural investment demand as investors seek diversification and protection against macroeconomic uncertainty. Falling oil prices could reduce inflation pressure, potentially limiting the need for further aggressive monetary tightening. Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, maintaining the potential for safe-haven demand. Any deterioration in the US economic outlook could shift expectations toward lower interest rates and support gold. Continued central-bank and institutional demand could provide longer-term support even during short-term corrections. Bearish Sentiment Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary is reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain restrictive. Higher US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, particularly for investors focused on income-producing assets. A stronger US dollar would make gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers and could weigh on international demand. Lower oil prices may reduce geopolitical risk premiums, potentially weakening safe-haven buying. Gold's elevated price level increases the risk of profit-taking if momentum deteriorates further. Persistent inflation could delay monetary easing, keeping real yields higher for longer. Gold Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate technical and fundamental focus remains the $4,350 area. A sustained recovery above this level would suggest that buyers are beginning to absorb the pressure created by higher-rate expectations. The next major test would then be whether gold can regain upward momentum as investors reassess the longer-term inflation and monetary-policy outlook. Conversely, continued trading below $4,350 would leave the market vulnerable to additional consolidation or a deeper correction, particularly if US yields and the dollar strengthen further. The most important catalyst is therefore not simply the direction of gold itself, but whether the Federal Reserve remains more concerned about persistent inflation than it is about the economic risks associated with restrictive monetary policy. Gold Supply Outlook Gold supply remains relatively less responsive to short-term price movements than many other commodities. Mine production cannot quickly adjust to changes in investment demand, meaning that sudden increases in physical and institutional buying can have a disproportionate impact on prices. With Chinese imports already exceeding 1,000 tons through August, the supply side of the market will need to accommodate continued strong physical demand while investment flows remain highly sensitive to interest rates and currency movements. Gold Demand Outlook The demand outlook remains divided geographically and by investor type. Chinese physical demand is providing a significant source of support, while Western investment demand remains more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields and the US dollar. If interest-rate expectations begin moving lower, investment demand could strengthen further. If the Fed maintains a restrictive stance, gold could remain vulnerable to periods of liquidation despite strong physical demand. The longer-term demand story therefore remains constructive, but the short-term direction is likely to be determined by monetary policy. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Gold is entering a period where monetary policy, oil prices, geopolitical developments and Chinese physical demand are pulling the market in different directions. The immediate pressure is coming from the Federal Reserve. Officials remain concerned that inflation could stay above target, limiting expectations for easier monetary policy. However, falling oil prices could begin changing the inflation equation. If energy prices continue to decline, the market may eventually question whether additional monetary tightening is necessary. At the same time, China's exceptionally strong gold imports demonstrate that the underlying physical market remains powerful. For the coming sessions, traders are likely to monitor: US interest-rate expectations and Treasury yields Further Federal Reserve commentary US inflation indicators The direction of the US dollar Developments in US-Iran negotiations Oil prices and their effect on inflation expectations Chinese gold demand and physical imports Whether gold can recover above $4,350 The key market tension is therefore between short-term monetary-policy pressure and longer-term structural demand. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the US dollar and interest-rate differential as central to gold's near-term direction. A stronger dollar combined with higher US yields would create a challenging environment for bullion, particularly while Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize inflation risks. Conversely, any sustained decline in US yields or weakening in the dollar could quickly restore upward momentum. The decline in oil prices is also important because it could eventually reduce inflation expectations and change the market's assumptions about future monetary policy. From an FX and hedging perspective, businesses and investors exposed to gold should therefore monitor the relationship between gold, the US dollar, Treasury yields and crude oil, rather than treating gold's price movement in isolation. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Gold remains caught between a powerful short-term macroeconomic headwind and increasingly strong structural demand. The Federal Reserve's latest messaging is keeping pressure on the market because investors must consider the possibility that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously expected. Higher-for-longer interest rates can support the dollar and yields, creating a difficult environment for a non-yielding asset. However, the scale of Chinese demand changes the longer-term picture. Imports exceeding 1,000 tons through August demonstrate that physical investment appetite remains substantial even at historically elevated prices. The decline in oil prices could become another important turning point. If lower energy prices translate into lower inflation, expectations for further monetary tightening could weaken. That would remove one of the major current headwinds facing gold. The market therefore remains highly sensitive to the next shift in the macroeconomic narrative. Gold's immediate direction will depend heavily on whether the Federal Reserve's inflation concerns continue to dominate, or whether falling energy prices and persistent physical demand begin to regain control of the market. For now, the area around $4,350 remains an important reference point as traders assess whether the current weakness develops into a deeper correction or becomes another consolidation phase within the broader gold market trend.

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Energies

September 23, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Hit 11-Week High Above $3 as Heat and LNG Exports Tighten the Market

US natural gas prices have climbed above $3.00/MMBtu, reaching their highest level since early July as stronger weather-driven power demand and robust LNG exports tighten the US gas balance. The latest rally is being driven by a combination of above-average autumn temperatures, continued air-conditioning demand, strong gas-fired power generation and rising LNG exports. At the same time, the US storage surplus is narrowing, reducing one of the market's previous bearish pressures. Inventories were estimated at 3% above the five-year average for the week ended September 18, down from a 3.7% surplus one week earlier. The market is therefore moving toward a more balanced supply-demand position just as international LNG demand is strengthening ahead of winter. US Natural Gas Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactUS natural gasAbove $3.00/MMBtuBullish momentumPrice levelHighest since July 8Positive technical signalAutumn weatherAbove average through Oct. 6 in South-Central USHigher power demandStorage surplus3% above five-year averageSurplus narrowingPrevious surplus3.7%Supply cushion shrinkingLNG flows18 bcfd in SeptemberStrong export demandAugust LNG flows17.2 bcfdSeptember increaseEuropean/Asian demandStrong ahead of winterSupports US LNG exportsUS productionStrongLimits potential upside US Natural Gas Prices Break Above $3 The move above $3/MMBtu marks an important change in the recent market trend. Natural gas is benefiting from stronger-than-normal temperatures that are extending demand for air conditioning and gas-fired electricity generation later into the autumn. The South-Central United States is expected to experience above-average temperatures through October 6, potentially keeping power-sector gas consumption elevated for longer than normally expected at this point in the season. This creates an unusual late-season demand boost at a time when the market would normally begin shifting its attention increasingly toward winter heating demand. Hot Autumn Weather Supports Gas-Fired Power Demand Weather is currently one of the most important bullish factors for US natural gas. Above-average temperatures increase electricity demand as consumers and businesses continue using air conditioning. Natural gas-fired power plants can then absorb additional gas supplies to meet electricity demand. The longer this pattern persists, the greater the impact on storage injections. That is particularly important because the storage surplus is already shrinking. If above-average temperatures continue beyond current forecasts, the market could enter the winter season with a smaller inventory cushion than previously expected. US Gas Storage Surplus Is Shrinking The US natural gas storage position remains above the five-year average, but the size of the surplus is becoming less comfortable. Inventories are estimated to be 3% above the five-year average, compared with 3.7% one week earlier. The decline shows that stronger consumption is beginning to absorb some of the excess supply that had previously weighed on prices. The market does not currently face a structural storage shortage based on the figures provided. However, the direction of the surplus is becoming increasingly important. A continued reduction in the storage cushion would provide additional support for prices, particularly if it coincides with stronger LNG exports and an early start to winter heating demand. LNG Exports Provide an Additional Demand Engine US LNG export activity remains exceptionally important for the domestic gas balance. Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants have reached around 18 bcfd so far in September, compared with 17.2 bcfd in August. This increase represents another source of demand for US natural gas. Strong overseas demand is also supporting exports as European and Asian buyers seek to replenish inventories ahead of winter. Disruptions affecting LNG flows from the Persian Gulf are adding to the need for alternative supply, increasing the importance of US LNG cargoes in the global market. Europe and Asia Increase Competition for US Gas International buyers are becoming increasingly important to the US natural gas market. European and Asian buyers are preparing for winter while dealing with uncertainty surrounding global LNG supply. If international demand remains elevated, US LNG facilities could continue operating at high utilization levels, keeping domestic gas demand strong. This creates a direct link between global energy security and US Henry Hub prices. A disruption elsewhere in the global LNG market can therefore increase demand for US gas even when domestic fundamentals appear relatively comfortable. Supply Growth Limits the Rally Strong US production remains an important bearish counterweight. Higher production provides additional gas to the domestic market and can help offset increased power-sector and LNG demand. The critical question is whether production growth can keep pace with the combined increase in domestic consumption and exports. If production continues expanding rapidly while weather demand normalizes, the storage surplus could stabilize or widen again. If demand continues growing faster than supply, the opposite could occur, leaving the market increasingly sensitive to storage data heading into winter. Bullish Sentiment Natural gas has moved above $3/MMBtu, reaching its highest level since July 8 and establishing stronger upward momentum. Above-average temperatures are expected through October 6 across the South-Central US, potentially extending air-conditioning demand. Gas-fired power generation remains strong, increasing domestic consumption. The storage surplus is shrinking, falling to 3% above the five-year average from 3.7%. LNG exports are rising, with September flows averaging 18 bcfd versus 17.2 bcfd in August. European and Asian buyers are replenishing inventories ahead of winter, supporting international demand for US LNG. Bearish Sentiment US natural gas inventories remain above the five-year average, meaning the market still retains a supply cushion. US production remains strong, providing additional supply to the domestic market. A return to more moderate temperatures could reduce power-sector gas demand, particularly once the current heat wave passes. A larger-than-expected storage injection could challenge the recent price rally. Higher domestic production could offset stronger LNG and power-sector demand if supply growth accelerates. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The move above $3/MMBtu places weather and storage data at the centre of the near-term outlook. The immediate question is whether the market can maintain prices above this level as autumn progresses. Continued heat would provide further support by maintaining power-sector demand and limiting the amount of gas entering storage. At the same time, sustained LNG flows around 18 bcfd would keep exports acting as a significant structural source of demand. The key risk to the rally would be a rapid normalization of temperatures combined with continued strong production and larger storage injections. The market is therefore increasingly dependent on whether demand growth continues to outpace the additional supply entering the system. US Natural Gas Supply Outlook The US remains in a strong production position, which provides an important buffer against demand increases. However, supply must now be viewed alongside two major demand engines: domestic electricity generation and LNG exports. If production growth remains sufficient to cover both, the market could maintain a comfortable storage position. If LNG exports continue rising while hot weather keeps domestic demand elevated, the surplus could shrink further. The direction of weekly storage data will therefore remain one of the clearest indicators of whether the current rally has fundamental support. US Natural Gas Demand Outlook The demand outlook is becoming increasingly constructive. Near-term consumption is being supported by above-average temperatures and continued air-conditioning requirements, while international LNG demand provides an additional source of structural demand. The transition toward winter could create another demand phase if colder temperatures increase residential and commercial heating consumption. This gives the natural gas market two potential demand catalysts: extended autumn cooling demand followed by winter heating demand. The strength and timing of those two periods will be critical for determining the size of the storage cushion entering the winter. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions US natural gas is entering a more constructive fundamental environment as prices move above $3/MMBtu and the storage surplus continues to narrow. The market is currently benefiting from an unusual combination of late-season heat and strong international LNG demand. The most important indicators for the coming sessions will be: South-Central US temperature forecasts Gas-fired power generation Weekly storage injections LNG export flows US production levels European and Asian LNG demand Early winter weather forecasts If the storage surplus continues shrinking while LNG exports remain near record levels, the market could retain upward pressure. If temperatures moderate and production continues to grow faster than consumption, the market could struggle to extend the rally. Currency Hedger View From a Currency Hedger perspective, stronger US natural gas prices have broader implications for energy-intensive businesses and international commodity markets. Higher US gas prices can increase operating costs for manufacturers, utilities and other energy-intensive businesses, while stronger LNG exports reinforce the importance of US energy flows to the global market. The growing connection between US natural gas and European and Asian LNG demand also means that movements in global energy prices can influence currency expectations through inflation, trade balances and energy-import costs. For businesses with international energy exposure, the combination of natural gas prices, USD movements and global LNG demand remains an important consideration when managing future costs and currency risk. Currency Hedger will continue monitoring the relationship between US energy prices, the US dollar and international commodity flows as the market moves toward the winter period. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets US natural gas has moved into a more constructive phase, with prices above $3/MMBtu and the storage surplus beginning to narrow. The important development is that the market is no longer relying on a single bullish factor. Weather is increasing power-sector demand, LNG exports are absorbing substantial volumes of domestic gas, and international buyers are competing for LNG supplies ahead of winter. At the same time, US production remains strong and inventories are still above the five-year average. That means the market does not currently have a simple supply-shortage story. The key issue for the coming period is therefore the rate at which the storage surplus is being consumed. If hot weather persists, LNG exports remain around 18 bcfd and winter demand begins building before inventories can rebuild sufficiently, the market could face increasing upward pressure. Conversely, if temperatures normalize and strong production results in larger storage injections, the recent move above $3 could come under pressure. For traders, the most important signals are therefore weather, weekly storage data, LNG export flows and US production. These will determine whether the current rally develops into a sustained move higher or loses momentum as autumn demand normalizes. Today Markets will continue monitoring US natural gas, global LNG flows and the changing supply-demand balance as the market approaches the winter heating season.

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Energies

September 23, 2026

European Natural Gas Prices Fall as US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears: Winter Supply Risks Remain

European natural gas prices are currently trading around €72/MWh, with the market at its lowest level since early September as renewed US-Iran diplomatic contacts reduce some of the immediate fears surrounding energy transportation and regional supply disruption. The latest developments are creating a more balanced near-term outlook for European gas. Increased LNG tanker and crude carrier activity through alternative routes is helping ease transportation concerns, while the possibility of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is reducing some of the geopolitical risk premium. However, the European gas market remains vulnerable heading into the winter heating season. Storage levels are only around 69% full, significantly below the 85% five-year seasonal average, while Norwegian pipeline exports remain constrained by maintenance. This leaves the market highly sensitive to any renewed disruption to LNG flows, pipeline supplies or geopolitical developments. European Natural Gas Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImpactEuropean gas priceAround €72/MWhPrices under pressureStorage levelsAround 69% fullBearish short term, but winter risk remainsFive-year seasonal averageAround 85%Storage deficit remains significantUS-Iran talksRenewed diplomatic engagementReduces geopolitical risk premiumStrait of HormuzPotential reopening discussedCould improve energy transportationLNG shippingMore vessels using alternative routesEases immediate supply concernsNorwegian exportsRestricted by maintenanceRemains a supply-side riskWinter demandHeating season approachingPotentially bullish European Gas Prices Remain Under Pressure The decline toward €72/MWh reflects a reduction in the immediate geopolitical risk premium rather than the complete removal of Europe's underlying supply risks. Renewed discussions between the United States and Iran have raised hopes that tensions affecting the Middle East and critical energy transportation routes could ease. Reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington reduces military pressure and lifts its blockade have added to the downward pressure on gas prices. For European buyers, the importance of the Strait extends beyond crude oil. Disruptions to shipping routes can affect LNG transportation, freight costs and the availability of energy cargoes reaching European terminals. The increase in LNG tankers using alternative routes is therefore an important development. If shipping flows continue to normalize, European buyers could face less immediate competition for available cargoes. US-Iran Diplomacy Becomes a Key Energy Market Catalyst The diplomatic developments are currently one of the most important variables for European natural gas pricing. US President Donald Trump has described discussions between US officials and Iranian representatives as very positive, although the details of the discussions remain limited. The market is therefore pricing in the possibility of improved energy transportation conditions rather than a confirmed resolution. A sustained diplomatic breakthrough could remove additional risk premium from European gas prices. Conversely, any deterioration in negotiations could quickly restore concerns over Middle Eastern energy flows. This creates a market where geopolitical headlines can continue to produce significant short-term price movements. Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical for the Energy Outlook The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because the waterway is central to global energy transportation. If restrictions are eased and shipping activity normalizes, the market could see further improvement in confidence surrounding LNG and crude transportation. However, the current situation remains dependent on political and military developments. Until transportation conditions are demonstrably stable, European gas buyers are likely to maintain some geopolitical risk premium. This means that the market could remain highly reactive to any changes in US-Iran relations. European Gas Storage Remains a Major Winter Risk The biggest structural concern for the European gas market is the relatively low level of storage entering the winter period. European storage facilities are currently around 69% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of approximately 85%. That difference is important because storage provides a critical buffer against periods of elevated winter demand or unexpected supply interruptions. The current storage position does not necessarily imply an immediate shortage. However, it reduces the market's margin for error. A colder-than-expected winter, stronger heating demand or another major supply disruption could therefore have a disproportionately large impact on prices. Norwegian Gas Supply Remains Constrained Norway remains an important source of European pipeline gas, making maintenance-related reductions significant for the regional market. Bookings have fallen to around 262.5 million cubic metres per day, reflecting ongoing maintenance constraints. The timing is important. With the European heating season approaching, any prolonged reduction in Norwegian exports could increase pressure on alternative supply sources. If Norwegian flows recover while LNG availability remains healthy, the European supply outlook could improve considerably. If maintenance lasts longer than expected, the market could become increasingly sensitive to storage levels and weather forecasts. Bullish Sentiment European storage remains below the five-year seasonal average, leaving less protection against winter demand spikes. Norwegian pipeline exports remain constrained, reducing one of Europe's major sources of natural gas. Winter heating demand is approaching, increasing the importance of storage and reliable pipeline and LNG supplies. Geopolitical risks have not disappeared, meaning renewed tensions could quickly restore a risk premium. Transportation disruptions remain possible, particularly if the situation around the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates again. Bearish Sentiment European gas prices have already fallen toward €72/MWh, reflecting reduced immediate supply concerns. Renewed US-Iran talks are improving expectations for diplomatic progress, potentially reducing geopolitical risk. Iran has reportedly indicated a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could improve energy transportation conditions. More LNG tankers are using alternative routes, helping maintain the flow of energy cargoes despite regional uncertainty. A sustained improvement in Middle Eastern transportation conditions could remove additional geopolitical premium from European gas prices. Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The next major question for European natural gas is whether the decline toward €72/MWh develops into a broader downward trend or whether winter supply concerns begin to limit further losses. A continued improvement in US-Iran relations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and stable LNG transportation would create a more bearish environment for European gas. However, the market has a significant counterweight in the form of relatively low storage. If storage continues to build at a satisfactory pace and Norwegian exports recover, prices could remain under pressure. If storage injections slow or winter weather expectations become colder, the market could quickly refocus on supply security. The balance between geopolitical normalization and winter supply risk is therefore likely to remain the central pricing mechanism. European Natural Gas Supply Outlook The supply outlook is improving at the margin because transportation conditions appear less restrictive than previously feared. LNG flows through alternative routes are helping offset some of the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, while diplomatic progress could eventually improve shipping conditions further. Norwegian maintenance remains the main European pipeline supply issue highlighted by the latest data. Looking ahead, the key supply indicators will be: Norwegian pipeline nominations and maintenance schedules LNG tanker arrivals into Europe Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions European storage injections US-Iran diplomatic developments Weather forecasts for the European winter A combination of stronger LNG arrivals and recovering Norwegian flows would improve the supply balance. A reversal in either factor could quickly increase market volatility. European Natural Gas Demand Outlook Demand is expected to become increasingly important as Europe moves deeper toward the winter heating season. Current storage levels provide less of a cushion than the five-year seasonal norm. Consequently, temperature forecasts could become a progressively stronger driver of gas prices. A mild winter would reduce heating demand and allow existing inventories to cover consumption more comfortably. A colder winter would have the opposite effect, increasing withdrawals from storage and potentially forcing European buyers to compete more aggressively for LNG cargoes. The demand outlook is therefore highly dependent on weather, industrial consumption and the pace at which European inventories are replenished before sustained winter withdrawals begin. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions European natural gas is entering a particularly sensitive period. The immediate market pressure remains to the downside as diplomatic developments reduce fears surrounding Middle Eastern energy transportation. Additional normalization of LNG shipping could create further downward pressure on prices. However, the market's underlying structure remains vulnerable. Storage at around 69% versus an 85% five-year seasonal average means Europe has less of a buffer than usual entering the heating season. Norwegian maintenance adds another supply variable. The coming sessions are therefore likely to be driven by the interaction between geopolitical developments, LNG availability, Norwegian pipeline flows, storage data and weather forecasts. The market could remain relatively soft if geopolitical risks continue to recede, but any deterioration in the Middle East situation or deterioration in the European supply outlook could trigger a rapid reversal. Currency Hedger View From a Currency Hedger perspective, European natural gas remains closely connected to the broader European energy and currency environment. Lower gas prices can reduce some of the inflationary pressure facing European economies and may improve expectations surrounding industrial costs and household energy expenditure. A sustained decline in European gas prices could therefore influence expectations for European interest rates and, indirectly, the euro. However, the currency impact is unlikely to be determined by gas prices alone. The direction of the euro will also depend on European economic data, interest-rate expectations, US monetary policy and developments in global energy markets. For businesses with significant euro-denominated energy exposure, the current decline in gas prices may provide some relief, but the relatively low European storage position means that forward energy costs can remain sensitive to winter and geopolitical developments. Currency Hedger will continue to monitor the relationship between European energy prices, EUR volatility and the wider macroeconomic environment as the winter period approaches. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets European natural gas prices are currently moving lower as the geopolitical risk premium begins to unwind, but the decline should be viewed against a European market that still has a relatively limited margin for supply disruption. The most important development is the improvement in expectations surrounding US-Iran relations. If diplomatic progress continues and the Strait of Hormuz returns to more normal operating conditions, the pressure on LNG transportation and global energy markets could ease further. That would create a stronger argument for continued weakness in European gas prices. The problem for the bears is the European storage position. At around 69% full, inventories are well below the five-year seasonal average of 85%, leaving the market more exposed to a combination of colder weather, stronger heating demand or another supply disruption. The next phase of the market is therefore likely to depend on whether improving geopolitical conditions can outweigh Europe's relatively weak pre-winter storage position. For traders, the critical indicators are clear: European storage, Norwegian gas flows, LNG arrivals, Middle East shipping conditions and winter weather expectations. A continued improvement across those areas would reinforce the bearish pressure on prices, while renewed disruption could quickly bring supply concerns back to the forefront. Today Markets will continue to monitor European natural gas, global energy transportation and the macroeconomic implications for traders and businesses as the winter heating season approaches.

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Energies

September 23, 2026

Heating Oil Falls Below $4.90 as Middle East Supply Risks Ease but Winter Demand and Tight Inventories Loom

U.S. heating oil prices are currently trading below $4.90 per gallon, reaching their lowest level in two weeks as improving Middle East oil flows and signs of diplomatic progress reduce some of the immediate supply-risk premium. Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West oil pipeline at a reduced rate following a drone-related shutdown, while exports through Yanbu are expected to resume. However, the restoration of full flows could take six to eight weeks, meaning the physical supply situation remains vulnerable even as geopolitical tensions ease. At the same time, the approaching winter heating season could increase demand for distillates just as refinery maintenance potentially limits production. Russia's extension of diesel export restrictions through October and a reported 2.2 million-barrel decline in distillate inventories add further support to the medium-term heating oil outlook. The market is therefore balancing near-term geopolitical relief against tightening distillate fundamentals and approaching seasonal demand. Heating Oil Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationHeating Oil PriceBelow $4.90/galTwo-week lowSaudi East-West PipelineRestarted at reduced rateImmediate supply pressure easingFull Pipeline RestorationPotentially 6–8 weeksSupply risk remainsYanbu ExportsExpected to resumeAdditional supply recoveryStrait of HormuzPotential reopening discussedMajor geopolitical variableWinter DemandExpected to strengthenBullish seasonal factorRefinery MaintenanceCould constrain distillate productionSupply-side supportRussian Diesel RestrictionsExtended through OctoberTightens global distillate availabilityDistillate InventoriesDown 2.2M barrelsBullish inventory signal Heating Oil Prices Retreat Toward Two-Week Lows Heating oil is currently under pressure after falling below $4.90 per gallon. The decline reflects a reduction in immediate fears surrounding Middle East oil supply. Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West pipeline at a reduced operating rate, while expectations for renewed Yanbu exports are helping ease concerns about the availability of refined products. However, the decline should be viewed against a still-sensitive supply backdrop. Full restoration of pipeline flows could take six to eight weeks because repairs are continuing. This means the market has not completely removed the geopolitical supply risk; rather, some of the immediate disruption premium is being unwound. Saudi Oil Flows Begin to Recover Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is an important component of the country's ability to move crude toward its western export infrastructure. The restart at a reduced rate represents an improvement from the previous disruption, while the expected resumption of Yanbu exports provides another potential source of supply relief. The key issue for the heating oil market is the speed at which normal flows return. If the pipeline gradually returns to full capacity without further disruptions, the market could continue removing geopolitical risk premium from prices. If repairs take longer than expected or additional infrastructure is affected, supply concerns could quickly return. The six-to-eight-week restoration timeframe therefore remains an important variable. Strait of Hormuz Remains a Major Risk Factor The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is another major market variable. Iran has indicated that the Strait could be reopened within a week if U.S. military pressure is eased and the blockade is lifted. President Trump has also described discussions involving U.S. and Iranian officials as “very productive.” Any credible reduction in tensions could further lower the geopolitical premium embedded in oil and refined-product prices. However, until the physical situation is fully resolved, the Strait remains a major source of uncertainty for global energy markets. For heating oil, the importance extends beyond crude prices because disruptions to major Middle East supply routes can affect refinery economics, transportation costs and global distillate availability. Winter Heating Demand Could Shift the Market Balance The bearish pressure from improving Middle East flows is being countered by the approaching winter heating season. Heating oil demand typically becomes more important as temperatures decline across major consuming regions. The market is therefore approaching a period in which seasonal demand could increase at the same time that refinery maintenance limits production capacity. This creates the potential for a tightening distillate balance even if crude supply disruptions continue to ease. The timing of the seasonal demand increase will therefore be critical. Refinery Maintenance Could Constrain Distillate Supply Refinery maintenance represents another important factor for heating oil. When refineries enter maintenance periods, available production capacity can temporarily decline. If distillate demand is simultaneously increasing, inventories can come under additional pressure. This is particularly important because heating oil competes with diesel and other middle-distillate products for refinery output. The market is therefore entering a period where refinery utilization, maintenance schedules and distillate inventories could become increasingly important price drivers. Russian Diesel Restrictions Add Global Supply Pressure Russia is set to extend its diesel export restrictions through October. The restrictions are significant because they limit the amount of diesel available to the international market at a time when global distillate inventories are already under pressure. Reduced Russian exports can increase competition for alternative supplies and potentially support international diesel and heating oil prices. The impact is particularly relevant as the Northern Hemisphere approaches the winter demand period. Distillate Inventories Are Falling Industry data shows distillate inventories declined by 2.2 million barrels in the week ended September 18. The drawdown provides an important bullish signal. Lower inventories mean the market has less of a cushion against stronger demand or further supply disruptions. If inventories continue declining as winter approaches, heating oil could become increasingly sensitive to refinery outages, weather forecasts and geopolitical developments. The direction of inventories will therefore be one of the most important indicators to monitor. Bullish Sentiment 1. Winter heating demand is approaching Seasonal demand is expected to strengthen as temperatures decline, potentially increasing pressure on available distillate supplies. 2. Distillate inventories have fallen The reported 2.2 million-barrel inventory decline reduces the supply cushion entering the winter period. 3. Refinery maintenance could restrict production Maintenance activity could limit distillate output precisely as seasonal demand begins to increase. 4. Russian diesel restrictions remain in place Extended export restrictions reduce international diesel availability and could support distillate pricing. 5. Saudi supply recovery remains incomplete The East-West pipeline has restarted at a reduced rate, while full restoration could take six to eight weeks. Bearish Sentiment 1. Middle East supply flows are recovering The Saudi pipeline restart and expected return of Yanbu exports are reducing immediate supply concerns. 2. Diplomatic progress could reduce geopolitical risk premium Signs of improved U.S.-Iran discussions could lower the risk premium embedded in energy prices. 3. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could improve supply expectations If the Strait reopens and regional tensions ease, crude and refined-product markets could experience additional downside pressure. 4. Heating oil has already fallen to a two-week low The recent decline demonstrates that the market is responding to improving geopolitical supply expectations. 5. Further supply normalization could increase downside pressure If Saudi infrastructure returns to full operation faster than expected, available crude and refined products could increase. Heating Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The heating oil market is currently facing two competing forces. The first is geopolitical normalization. Improving Middle East oil flows and potential diplomatic progress could continue reducing the immediate supply premium. The second is tightening distillate fundamentals. Winter demand is approaching, inventories are falling and refinery maintenance could reduce production. Russian diesel export restrictions further limit the available global supply cushion. The market therefore needs to determine whether the easing geopolitical risk will be sufficient to outweigh tightening seasonal fundamentals. In the near term, further evidence of restored Saudi flows and progress around the Strait of Hormuz could keep prices under pressure. However, if inventory draws continue and refinery availability tightens as winter demand increases, heating oil could begin to regain support. Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook is improving, but the recovery is incomplete. Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West pipeline at a reduced rate, with Yanbu exports expected to resume. Full restoration could take six to eight weeks. This means the market is moving toward greater supply availability, but not necessarily back to normal conditions immediately. Meanwhile, Russian diesel restrictions through October are limiting another important source of global distillate supply. The overall supply outlook is therefore less threatened than during the peak of the disruption, but still relatively vulnerable to additional shocks. Demand Outlook Demand is becoming increasingly important as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter. Heating oil consumption can rise significantly as temperatures fall, while diesel demand remains an important component of the broader distillate market. The combination of seasonal demand, falling inventories and potential refinery maintenance could create a tighter market balance during the coming months. The main question is whether additional Middle East supply will arrive quickly enough to offset the seasonal increase in consumption. Heating Oil Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Heating oil is currently under pressure below $4.90 per gallon, but the market's medium-term outlook remains more complicated than the recent price decline suggests. The immediate bearish influence is the recovery in Middle East oil flows and the potential for further diplomatic progress. The medium-term bullish argument is built around winter demand, declining distillate inventories, refinery maintenance and continued Russian diesel export restrictions. The next major developments to watch are the pace of Saudi pipeline repairs, the return of Yanbu exports, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the direction of U.S. distillate inventories. If geopolitical tensions continue to ease, heating oil could remain under pressure in the near term. If supply recovery slows while inventories continue to decline into the winter demand period, the market could become increasingly supportive again. Currency Hedger View From a Currency Hedger perspective, heating oil and refined-product markets are particularly sensitive to movements in the U.S. dollar because energy commodities are globally priced in dollars. For international fuel buyers, distributors and businesses with significant energy costs, a falling heating oil price does not necessarily translate into an equivalent reduction in the local-currency cost if the domestic currency is simultaneously weakening against the dollar. The current combination of geopolitical uncertainty, energy-price volatility and changing global trade flows therefore makes FX exposure an important secondary risk alongside the underlying heating oil price. Currency Hedger's view is that businesses with significant future fuel purchases or international energy payments should consider the commodity exposure and currency exposure together when assessing forward costs. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Heating oil is currently being pulled in opposite directions. The decline below $4.90 per gallon reflects improving Middle East supply expectations, with Saudi Arabia restarting its East-West pipeline and the possibility of renewed Yanbu exports. Signs of diplomatic progress involving the U.S. and Iran are also reducing some of the immediate geopolitical risk premium. However, the physical supply picture has not fully normalized. Full Saudi pipeline flows could take six to eight weeks to restore, while Russia is extending diesel export restrictions through October. At the same time, distillate inventories have fallen by 2.2 million barrels, reducing the market's cushion as winter approaches. The key issue for the coming period is therefore the timing of supply recovery versus the seasonal increase in demand. If Middle East flows normalize quickly and diplomatic progress continues, heating oil could remain under pressure. But if repairs remain slow, inventories continue declining and refinery maintenance constrains production as winter demand strengthens, the market could face renewed upward pressure. For the coming sessions, traders should focus on Saudi supply restoration, Strait of Hormuz developments, refinery operations, distillate inventories and winter demand expectations. These factors will determine whether the recent decline develops into a broader correction or becomes a temporary pullback within a fundamentally tighter distillate market.

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Copper Hits Record High as Mine Supply Disruptions and AI Demand Push Prices Toward $6.80

Copper is currently trading at record levels near $6.80 per pound, with persistent supply concerns and strong structural demand continuing to drive the market higher. The latest rally is being supported by disruptions at major mines, declining ore grades and weaker production from Chile, while demand from electricity grids, artificial intelligence infrastructure and the defense sector remains robust. The copper market is increasingly being defined by a potential mismatch between limited mine supply growth and rising demand from electrification and technology investment. At the same time, proposed U.S. copper tariffs introduce another major variable for global trade flows and regional pricing. With copper already at fresh all-time highs, the key question for traders is whether tightening supply fundamentals can continue supporting the rally or whether elevated prices begin to trigger stronger profit-taking and demand resistance. Copper Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationCopper PriceNear $6.80/lbRecord-high price environmentGlobal Mine SupplyPotential decline this yearBullish supply signalChilean ProductionWeak outputAdds to supply concernsMajor Mine DisruptionsIndonesia and DRCEstimated 600,000 tons of lost expected productionOre GradesDecliningStructural production challengePower Grid DemandStrongLong-term copper supportAI Data CentersStrong demand growthStructural demand driverDefense SectorRobust consumptionAdditional demand supportU.S. Copper Tariff Proposal15% from 2027; 30% from 2028Potential trade-flow disruption Copper Prices Reach Fresh All-Time High Copper futures have climbed toward $6.80 per pound, establishing a new record as traders continue to price in tighter supply and resilient demand. The strength of the move is significant because copper is widely used across electrical infrastructure, construction, manufacturing and technology. As a result, changes in expectations for global economic activity and industrial investment can have a direct impact on demand. The current rally, however, is being driven by more than traditional cyclical demand. The rapid expansion of AI data centers, power infrastructure and electrification projects is creating additional structural demand for copper at a time when the mining industry is facing increasingly difficult supply conditions. Global Copper Mine Supply Faces Increasing Pressure The supply side is currently one of the strongest bullish factors in the copper market. Sprott Asset Management has indicated that global mined copper production could decline this year for the first time since 2017. The potential decline reflects several factors, including mine disruptions, declining ore grades and weak production from Chile. A decline in global mined production would be particularly significant given the strength of current demand. Copper mining projects require substantial capital investment and long development periods, meaning supply cannot always respond quickly when prices rise. This creates the potential for a prolonged period in which demand growth outpaces the ability of miners to add production. Indonesia and Democratic Republic of Congo Disruptions Supply disruptions at major mines in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have further tightened the production outlook. The disruptions are estimated to have reduced expected annual production by approximately 600,000 tons. That is a significant volume for a market already facing concerns about declining ore grades and weak production from some traditional mining regions. If these disruptions persist or additional operational problems emerge, the market could maintain a substantial supply-risk premium. The key issue for prices is therefore whether lost production can be replaced elsewhere. With mine development timelines extending over years rather than months, replacement supply may be difficult to bring online quickly. Chile Remains a Major Supply Concern Chile remains an important part of the global copper supply chain, making weaker production from the country particularly relevant to the market. Declining ore grades represent a longer-term challenge for established mining regions. Lower grades can require more material to be processed to produce the same amount of refined copper, potentially increasing operating costs and placing additional pressure on production growth. This creates a structural supply issue rather than a purely temporary disruption. For copper traders, the distinction is important: temporary mine disruptions can eventually be resolved, while deteriorating ore grades and declining production capacity can require significant investment before supply growth returns. AI and Data Centers Transform Copper Demand Demand is increasingly being supported by investment in AI data centers and electricity infrastructure. Data centers require extensive electrical systems, power distribution equipment and grid connections, while the broader expansion of AI infrastructure is increasing electricity demand. Copper is particularly important because of its electrical conductivity and extensive use in power transmission and distribution. This means the AI investment cycle is becoming an increasingly relevant copper-demand theme. The market is therefore not relying solely on conventional construction or manufacturing demand. New infrastructure requirements are creating an additional source of consumption that could remain significant over the coming years. Power Grid Investment Supports Structural Demand The expansion and modernization of electricity grids represents another major source of potential copper demand. Growing electricity consumption requires additional generation, transmission and distribution capacity. Grid modernization can also require substantial quantities of copper-containing electrical equipment. This creates a longer-term demand foundation that is less dependent on short-term economic cycles. If investment in power infrastructure continues alongside AI expansion and electrification, copper consumption could remain structurally strong even during periods when traditional industrial demand moderates. Defense Demand Adds Another Layer of Support The defense sector is also contributing to the demand outlook. Copper is used across electrical systems, communications equipment, vehicles and other defense-related infrastructure. Strong defense investment therefore provides another source of industrial demand at a time when the copper market is already dealing with constrained mine supply. The combined impact of AI, power grids, electrification and defense is increasingly changing the demand profile of copper. U.S. Copper Tariffs Could Reshape Global Trade Flows Traders are also monitoring proposed U.S. copper tariffs. The Commerce Department has proposed duties of 15% from January 2027 and 30% from 2028, subject to a presidential decision. If implemented, such tariffs could materially influence the flow of copper into the U.S. market. Higher import costs could change purchasing patterns, regional premiums and inventory decisions. Market participants could also adjust shipments ahead of implementation dates, potentially creating periods of unusual volatility in U.S. and international copper markets. The tariff proposal therefore represents both a potential source of disruption and a reason for traders to closely monitor regional inventory and physical-market conditions. Bullish Sentiment 1. Copper has reached fresh all-time highs The move toward $6.80 per pound demonstrates strong underlying market momentum and continued willingness by buyers to pay higher prices. 2. Global mined production could decline A potential annual decline in global mined copper production would reinforce concerns about tightening supply. 3. Major mine disruptions are removing expected supply Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are experiencing disruptions estimated to have reduced expected production by approximately 600,000 tons. 4. AI data centers are creating structural demand Rapid investment in AI infrastructure is increasing requirements for electricity generation, transmission and data-center electrical systems. 5. Power-grid investment remains a major demand driver Grid expansion and modernization require substantial quantities of copper-containing electrical infrastructure. 6. Defense demand remains robust Defense-related infrastructure provides an additional source of industrial copper consumption. Bearish Sentiment 1. Record prices increase the risk of profit-taking After reaching all-time highs, copper is increasingly exposed to periods of profit-taking and short-term technical corrections. 2. Elevated prices could encourage demand substitution Sustained high copper prices can encourage manufacturers to examine alternative materials or reduce copper intensity where technically possible. 3. Tariff uncertainty could disrupt demand Higher U.S. import costs could alter regional trade flows and potentially affect physical demand patterns. 4. Mine disruptions could eventually be resolved Some current supply losses are operational rather than permanent, meaning production could recover if affected mines return to normal output. 5. High prices can stimulate future investment A prolonged period of elevated copper prices can improve the economics of new mining projects and expansion programs, potentially increasing future supply. Copper Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Copper's record rally is increasingly dependent on whether the market can maintain the fundamental justification for elevated prices. The central bullish argument is straightforward: mine supply is struggling to expand while demand from electrification, AI infrastructure, power grids and defense remains strong. The major risk to the rally is that extremely high prices eventually generate a combination of profit-taking, demand resistance and additional supply investment. In the near term, traders will be watching for evidence that mine disruptions are becoming more severe, whether Chilean production continues to disappoint and whether demand indicators remain strong. The proposed U.S. tariffs add another layer of uncertainty. Any formal decision could affect physical flows and regional pricing structures well before the scheduled implementation dates. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains one of the most important bullish components of the copper market. Potentially declining global mined production, weaker Chilean output, declining ore grades and major disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are creating a challenging environment for supply growth. The estimated 600,000 tons of lost expected production from major disruptions highlights the scale of the current problem. The longer-term question is whether mining investment can respond quickly enough to meet rising consumption. Given the long development timelines associated with new copper mines, the market may remain sensitive to even relatively small disruptions in existing production. Demand Outlook Copper demand is increasingly being supported by structural rather than purely cyclical forces. AI data centers require substantial electrical infrastructure, while expanding power grids and electrification projects continue to increase copper requirements. Defense spending provides another source of demand. The important feature of these sectors is that investment can remain substantial even when individual areas of the global economy experience periods of slower growth. If AI infrastructure investment and electricity-grid expansion remain strong, copper demand could continue growing at a time when mine supply is struggling to keep pace. Copper Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Copper enters the coming sessions at an exceptionally elevated level, with the market trading near $6.80 per pound and at fresh all-time highs. The immediate outlook remains dominated by supply risks and strong structural demand. The market will be watching for further information on mine disruptions, Chilean production and global mined supply. At the same time, continued investment in AI data centers and power infrastructure could reinforce expectations for sustained copper consumption. U.S. tariff policy is another major variable. A confirmed tariff schedule could alter regional trade flows and create additional volatility in physical and futures markets. The key question for copper is therefore whether tight supply and structural demand can continue to justify record prices as the market moves forward. Currency Hedger View From a Currency Hedger perspective, copper's international nature means currency movements can influence the economics of both producers and consumers. Copper is globally traded in U.S. dollars, meaning changes in the dollar can affect the effective cost for international buyers and the revenue economics of producers operating in other currencies. The proposed U.S. tariff structure adds another potential FX variable because changes in trade flows can influence currency expectations alongside commodity prices. For businesses exposed to copper purchases, sales or international supply contracts, managing the commodity price risk and associated currency risk together can become increasingly important during periods of extreme price volatility. Currency Hedger therefore continues to view copper exposure through both the underlying commodity market and the foreign-exchange environment, particularly for companies with significant international payment or procurement requirements. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Copper is currently being driven by a powerful combination of constrained mine supply and structural demand growth. The potential decline in global mined production would be particularly significant because the market is simultaneously facing disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, weaker Chilean output and declining ore grades. On the demand side, the copper story is increasingly connected to the expansion of AI data centers, electricity grids and defense infrastructure. These sectors provide additional consumption requirements beyond traditional construction and industrial activity. The move toward $6.80 per pound and fresh all-time highs demonstrates how strongly the market is responding to these fundamentals. However, record prices also create a more volatile environment, where profit-taking, demand resistance and future mine investment can become increasingly important. Looking ahead, the copper market will be closely focused on whether supply disruptions persist, whether global production continues to weaken and how quickly structural demand from AI and power infrastructure expands. The proposed U.S. copper tariffs add another major variable for global trade flows. As policy decisions develop, regional premiums, physical availability and currency movements could become increasingly important alongside the underlying copper price. For the coming sessions, the copper market remains fundamentally focused on the evolving balance between limited mine supply and expanding strategic demand, with any change in either side capable of producing significant price volatility.

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September 23, 2026

Soybean Prices Hold Near $13.25 as US-China Trade Talks, U.S. Harvest Progress and South American Supply Shape the Market Outlook

Soybean futures are currently holding close to the $13.25 per bushel area as traders balance strong U.S. harvest progress against weather disruptions, uncertain U.S.-China trade relations and expectations for larger South American production. The soybean market is entering a particularly important period, with the U.S. harvest already running ahead of its normal pace while traders await a meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders that could influence the outlook for agricultural trade. At the same time, Argentina is projecting a larger soybean crop for 2026/27, Brazil continues to ship substantial volumes and China remains an important source of underlying demand. The immediate direction of soybeans is therefore likely to depend on the interaction between U.S. harvest pressure, Chinese buying interest, trade-policy developments, South American production and weather across the U.S. Midwest. Soybean Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationNov 2026 Soybeans$13.25 1/2, down 2 1/2 centsNear-term pressureJan 2027 Soybeans$13.41 1/4, down 2 3/4 centsLimited bullish momentumMar 2027 Soybeans$13.48 3/4, down 3 centsDeferred contracts remain sensitive to supplyNearby Cash Beans$12.66 3/4, down 2 3/4 centsPhysical market slightly weakerSoymealUp $1.30–$2.40Provides product-side supportSoy OilDown 30–95 pointsWeakens the crush complexU.S. Soybean Harvest12% completeAhead of 8% averageU.S. Crop Conditions58% good/excellentGenerally stable but regional variation increasingArgentina 2026/27 Crop53.6 MMT projectedLarger South American supplyBrazil September Exports8.02 MMT estimatedStrong export availabilityChina Sinograin Sale338,674 MT soldDomestic reserves being released Soybean Prices Remain Range-Bound Soybean futures are currently showing modest weakness rather than a major breakdown. November 2026 soybeans are around $13.25 1/2, while January 2027 stands at $13.41 1/4 and March 2027 at $13.48 3/4. The nearby cash soybean price is approximately $12.66 3/4, also slightly lower. The relatively narrow daily movement suggests that traders are waiting for clearer fundamental direction. The market has several potentially bullish developments to consider, particularly the upcoming U.S.-China discussions and weather-related harvest disruptions, but these are being offset by strong U.S. harvest progress and expectations for larger South American production. The result is a market where trade-policy headlines and weather forecasts can have an outsized influence on short-term price direction. U.S. Soybean Harvest Is Running Ahead of Average The U.S. soybean harvest is currently 12% complete, compared with the five-year average of 8%. This represents an important source of seasonal supply pressure. A faster harvest generally increases the amount of physical soybeans entering the commercial pipeline, potentially limiting nearby futures prices unless demand expands sufficiently to absorb the additional supply. However, harvest progress is not uniform across the country. Rainfall across parts of the western Corn Belt could slow fieldwork during the coming period. The market is therefore moving from a simple harvest-pressure story toward a more complicated situation involving harvest pace, regional weather and crop quality. U.S. Crop Conditions Show Regional Divergence The national soybean crop condition rating remains at 58% good/excellent, indicating that the overall crop is still in relatively stable condition. However, the underlying regional picture is more mixed. The Brugler500 index slipped one point to 352, reflecting a shift from fair to poor conditions. Michigan experienced a particularly significant decline, while Nebraska also weakened and Illinois and Indiana slipped slightly. At the same time, improvements were recorded in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan and Iowa. This regional divergence is important because the national rating can mask significant differences in individual production areas. For the market, the question is whether the weaker regional conditions represent isolated deterioration or develop into a broader production concern. Midwest Rain Could Slow Harvest Weather is becoming an increasingly important short-term factor. Parts of Minnesota, Iowa, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and surrounding areas could receive 1 to 4 inches of rain, with heavier totals expected around northeast Nebraska, northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Such rainfall could slow harvesting operations. For soybean prices, this creates a potential temporary source of support because delayed fieldwork can reduce the immediate flow of newly harvested beans into the physical market. However, rainfall can also provide moisture benefits for subsequent crops and does not automatically translate into a lasting reduction in soybean production. The market will therefore focus on the duration and geographical extent of the delays, rather than the rainfall itself. U.S.-China Trade Meeting Becomes a Major Catalyst The upcoming meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders is one of the most important near-term catalysts for the soybean market. Traders are watching for discussions surrounding the continuation of the existing trade truce and potential progress on tariffs. China remains critical to the global soybean market because of its enormous import requirements. Any improvement in the trading relationship could improve expectations for U.S. soybean demand and potentially alter the current balance between U.S. and South American supplies. Conversely, uncertainty surrounding tariffs or a lack of progress could continue encouraging Chinese buyers to rely heavily on South American origins. The market is therefore likely to react quickly to any changes in the expected direction of U.S.-China agricultural trade. Argentina Projects Larger Soybean Production Argentina's soybean outlook is currently becoming more bearish from a global supply perspective. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates the 2026/27 soybean crop at 53.6 MMT, compared with 50.1 MMT last year. The increase points toward additional South American supply entering the global market. A larger Argentine crop could increase export availability and intensify competition with U.S. soybeans, particularly during periods when South American exporters are aggressively marketing new-crop supplies. This represents an important counterweight to any potential improvement in U.S. soybean demand resulting from better U.S.-China trade relations. Brazilian Soybean Exports Remain Significant Brazilian soybean exports for September are estimated at approximately 8.02 MMT, according to ANEC. The estimate has been reduced by 0.3 MMT from the previous projection but would still represent a substantial export volume. The revised figure would be around 18.25% below August, while remaining approximately 9.25% above the comparable period last year if achieved. This highlights the continued importance of Brazil in global soybean supply. Brazilian availability means international buyers have an alternative source of supply even while the U.S. harvest is progressing. For U.S. soybean prices, sustained Brazilian export competitiveness can limit upside unless global demand grows sufficiently to absorb the additional production. China Continues to Manage Domestic Soybean Reserves China's Sinograin sold 338,674 MT of soybeans, representing just over 62% of the quantity offered. A further 514,000 MT sale has been announced for the following auction. The reserve sales are significant because they provide additional soybean availability within China and may temporarily reduce the urgency for some domestic purchases. At the same time, reserve sales do not eliminate China's underlying structural demand for soybeans. The longer-term market question remains how much China will need to import and from which origins. The U.S.-China trade relationship could therefore become particularly important if Chinese purchasing patterns change. Soymeal and Soy Oil Create a Mixed Crush Signal The soybean product complex is currently sending mixed signals. Soymeal futures are higher by approximately $1.30 to $2.40, providing some support to the soybean crush margin environment. Soy oil, however, is lower by approximately 30 to 95 points. The divergence means the soybean complex is not receiving a uniform signal from downstream demand. Stronger meal prices can support processor demand for soybeans, while weaker soy oil prices can limit the overall strength of the crush complex. Bullish Sentiment 1. U.S.-China trade discussions could improve demand expectations Progress toward extending the trade truce or reducing tariff uncertainty could improve expectations for U.S. soybean exports. 2. Midwest rainfall could temporarily slow harvest Heavy precipitation in parts of the western Corn Belt could delay fieldwork and reduce the immediate flow of soybeans into the physical market. 3. Soymeal prices are providing product-side support Higher soymeal futures are currently offering a supportive signal for soybean processors. 4. U.S. crop conditions remain stable nationally Despite regional deterioration, the national good/excellent rating remains at 58%, preventing the market from fully discounting production potential. 5. Brazilian exports remain below the previous estimate The downward revision to the September Brazilian export estimate slightly reduces the immediate supply expectation. Bearish Sentiment 1. U.S. harvest is ahead of average Harvest is 12% complete compared with an 8% five-year average, increasing the amount of new-crop supply entering the market. 2. Argentina expects a larger soybean crop Projected production of 53.6 MMT is above last year's 50.1 MMT, adding to global supply expectations. 3. Brazil remains a major exporter September exports are still projected above last year's level, maintaining strong South American competition. 4. China is releasing soybean reserves Sinograin's reserve sales provide additional domestic availability and may reduce immediate buying requirements. 5. Soy oil is weakening Lower soy oil prices are limiting support from the broader soybean products complex. Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The soybean market is currently positioned between seasonal U.S. supply pressure and potentially significant changes in global demand expectations. The most important near-term catalyst is the U.S.-China leadership meeting. A meaningful improvement in trade relations could alter expectations for U.S. export demand and provide support to futures. If trade uncertainty persists, South American supply could remain comparatively attractive to Chinese buyers. Weather is the second major variable. Rainfall that significantly slows the U.S. harvest could temporarily support prices, particularly if delays extend across major producing states. If fieldwork resumes quickly, the market is likely to refocus on the substantial volume of new-crop soybeans entering the supply chain. Beyond the immediate period, Argentina's larger production projection and continued Brazilian export availability suggest that the global supply picture remains substantial. Supply Outlook The global soybean supply outlook remains well supplied, with production expectations increasing in Argentina and Brazilian exports remaining strong. The U.S. harvest is also progressing ahead of normal pace, although weather could temporarily interrupt the flow of physical beans. The key issue is therefore not simply whether global supply is increasing, but whether demand can keep pace with the available production. China remains the critical demand variable. Demand Outlook China continues to dominate the demand outlook. The U.S.-China meeting could influence expectations for future U.S. soybean purchases, particularly if tariff arrangements change. However, Chinese buyers have access to substantial South American supply, while Sinograin is also releasing domestic reserves. This creates a complex demand environment in which Chinese consumption can remain structurally strong without necessarily translating into immediate U.S. soybean purchases. Soymeal demand also remains relevant, with higher meal futures currently providing some support to the soybean processing complex. Soybean Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Soybeans are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in U.S.-China trade policy, Midwest weather and harvest progress. The U.S. harvest being ahead of average is creating seasonal supply pressure, but rainfall could temporarily slow fieldwork and reduce the immediate pace of deliveries. At the same time, Argentina's larger projected crop and strong Brazilian export availability provide substantial global competition. The central market question is whether potential improvements in U.S.-China trade relations can generate enough additional demand to offset the expanding South American supply outlook and the ongoing U.S. harvest. Until that becomes clearer, soybean futures may remain caught between competing bullish and bearish fundamentals, with headline-driven volatility likely to remain elevated. Currency Hedger View From a Currency Hedger perspective, soybean markets are particularly sensitive to international currency movements because the U.S., Brazil and Argentina compete directly for global demand. The relative value of the U.S. dollar, Brazilian real and Argentine peso can influence the competitiveness of soybean exports from each origin. For international agricultural businesses, a movement in FX can therefore alter the effective economics of soybean purchases or sales even when the underlying futures market remains relatively stable. The U.S.-China trade relationship adds another layer of currency sensitivity because changes in tariffs, trade expectations and capital flows can influence exchange rates alongside commodity prices. Currency Hedger therefore sees the current environment as one where businesses exposed to international soybean transactions should monitor both commodity-price risk and FX risk, particularly around major trade-policy announcements. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Soybeans are currently sitting at the intersection of a strong U.S. harvest, expanding South American supply and an increasingly important U.S.-China trade catalyst. The 12% U.S. harvest pace, compared with the 8% average, is keeping pressure on nearby supplies. At the same time, rainfall across parts of the western Corn Belt could temporarily disrupt harvesting and provide short-term support. The bigger question is demand. The upcoming U.S.-China leadership meeting could materially change market expectations if progress is made on the trade truce and tariffs. Stronger expectations for Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans would provide a fundamentally different backdrop for the market. However, Argentina is projecting a 53.6 MMT soybean crop, above last year's 50.1 MMT, while Brazilian exports remain substantial. China is also continuing to release domestic reserves through Sinograin auctions. For the coming sessions, the soybean market is therefore likely to remain focused on trade relations, Chinese buying, U.S. harvest weather and South American supply. A clearer signal from any of these factors could determine whether soybeans remain under modest pressure or begin developing a stronger directional move.

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Wheat Futures Under Pressure as U.S. Planting, Argentina Supply and Global Export Flows Shape the 2026/27 Market Outlook

Wheat futures are currently under pressure across Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat, with the latest price action reflecting a combination of seasonal supply expectations, improving U.S. harvest progress and uncertainty surrounding the pace of winter wheat planting. At the same time, weather conditions across the U.S. Plains, a projected decline in Argentina’s wheat production and firm European export activity are providing important counterweights to the bearish pressure. The wheat market is entering a period where new-crop planting conditions, global production estimates, export competitiveness and weather risks will increasingly determine price direction. While the completed spring wheat harvest confirms substantial U.S. supply availability, the winter wheat crop is only in the early stages of planting, leaving the market exposed to weather-driven changes in acreage, emergence and establishment conditions. Wheat Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationCBOT Dec 2026 Wheat$7.17 1/4, down 9 1/2 centsBearish near-term momentumCBOT Mar 2027 Wheat$7.33 1/4, down 9 1/2 centsNew-crop pressure remainsKCBT Dec 2026 Wheat$7.81 1/4, down 13 1/4 centsHRW showing stronger selling pressureKCBT Mar 2027 Wheat$7.95 1/4, down 12 1/2 centsWinter wheat outlook remains weather-sensitiveMIAX Dec 2026 Wheat$7.36 1/4, down 10 centsSpring wheat pressuredMIAX Mar 2027 Wheat$7.58 3/4, down 9 3/4 centsFuture supply expectations remain importantU.S. Spring Wheat Harvest96% completeHarvest pressure largely nearing completionWinter Wheat Planting17% complete4 percentage points behind five-year averageWinter Wheat Emergence2%Establishment remains in early stagesArgentina 2026/27 Crop23.4 MMT projectedLower production could tighten export availabilityEU Wheat Exports6.3 MMTExport demand remains relatively firm Wheat Prices Remain Under Pressure The three major U.S. wheat futures markets are currently showing broad-based weakness. Chicago SRW wheat is trading around $7.17 1/4 for December 2026 and $7.33 1/4 for March 2027, with both contracts recently pressured by 9 1/2 cents. Kansas City HRW wheat is showing even greater weakness, with December 2026 at $7.81 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents, while March 2027 stands at $7.95 1/4, down 12 1/2 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat is also lower, with December 2026 at $7.36 1/4 and March 2027 at $7.58 3/4. The broad decline indicates that the market is currently placing greater emphasis on available supply and seasonal production prospects than on immediate supply-tightening concerns. However, the price structure is entering a more weather-sensitive period. The market will increasingly monitor the condition of newly planted winter wheat, particularly across the southern and central Plains. U.S. Spring Wheat Harvest Nears Completion The U.S. spring wheat harvest is now 96% complete, bringing the crop very close to being fully harvested. This is broadly in line with the normal seasonal pace and means the market is moving beyond the most intense phase of harvest pressure. With the majority of spring wheat already collected, attention is shifting toward winter wheat production and the condition of the crop that will determine a significant portion of future U.S. supply. The completion of the spring harvest remains fundamentally bearish in the short term because it confirms that a substantial amount of production is entering the commercial supply chain. However, once harvest activity is largely complete, the market tends to become more sensitive to forward-looking production risks. Winter Wheat Planting Faces Weather Risk Winter wheat planting is currently 17% complete, which is four percentage points behind the five-year average. Emergence is only 2%, highlighting how early the new crop remains in its development cycle. Weather is therefore becoming an increasingly important market variable. Forecast rainfall of approximately 1 to 2 inches from the Texas Panhandle through Kansas could slow planting activity during the coming week. While additional moisture can ultimately benefit soil conditions and crop establishment, excessive or poorly timed rainfall can temporarily restrict fieldwork. The market will therefore be watching whether the incoming precipitation improves planting conditions or creates additional delays. A prolonged planting slowdown would become increasingly significant if it begins to affect acreage expectations or the ability of producers to establish winter wheat within the optimal planting window. Argentina Wheat Production Outlook Argentina represents another important factor in the global wheat balance. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange currently estimates the 2026/27 Argentine wheat crop at 23.4 MMT, compared with 27.8 MMT last year. That represents a substantial year-on-year reduction in projected production. Lower Argentine output could reduce the country's exportable surplus and potentially create additional opportunities for competing exporters. If production expectations continue to decline, global buyers could increasingly look toward North American, European or Black Sea supplies. The Argentine crop therefore provides a potentially supportive fundamental factor at a time when U.S. wheat futures are under pressure. European Wheat Exports Remain Firm European wheat exports are also providing evidence of continued international demand. European Commission estimates place EU wheat exports at approximately 6.3 MMT from July 1 through September 20, slightly ahead of the 6.19 MMT recorded during the comparable period last year. This indicates that European wheat remains competitive in international markets. Continued European export activity could help absorb available production, although stronger exports also increase the importance of future crop and inventory developments across the region. The combination of solid EU exports and potentially lower Argentine production provides an important counterbalance to the current U.S. futures weakness. Bullish Sentiment 1. Argentina production is projected lower The projected decline from 27.8 MMT to 23.4 MMT reduces expected Argentine production and could eventually tighten export availability. 2. U.S. winter wheat planting is behind normal pace Planting is four percentage points behind the five-year average, creating a potential weather-related risk if delays become prolonged. 3. Plains weather is becoming increasingly important Rainfall across the Texas Panhandle and Kansas could slow planting and increase uncertainty surrounding crop establishment. 4. EU exports remain ahead of last year's pace EU exports at 6.3 MMT indicate that international demand for European wheat remains active. 5. Spring wheat harvest pressure is approaching an end With 96% of the U.S. spring wheat crop harvested, the market is moving away from peak harvest pressure and toward forward-looking production risks. Bearish Sentiment 1. U.S. spring wheat supply is largely harvested The 96% harvest completion rate confirms that most of the crop is already available to the market. 2. Wheat futures are showing broad-based weakness Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts are all under pressure, demonstrating a lack of immediate bullish momentum. 3. Winter wheat planting is still progressing Despite being behind the five-year average, planting has reached 17%, meaning the market has not yet seen a severe disruption to the new crop. 4. EU export availability remains strong Higher export volumes demonstrate that European supplies remain competitive in global markets. 5. Global wheat competition remains substantial U.S. exporters continue to operate in a highly competitive global market, limiting the ability of production concerns in individual countries to immediately translate into higher prices. Wheat Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate wheat outlook remains dependent on whether current bearish price momentum develops into a deeper trend or begins to encounter fundamental support. The first major variable is U.S. winter wheat planting progress. Any significant deterioration in planting pace caused by persistent rainfall could increase weather risk premiums. The second is crop establishment. With only 2% of the winter crop emerged, there is a long period ahead during which weather can materially influence production potential. The third is the global supply balance. Argentina's lower projected production provides a potentially supportive factor, while solid EU exports demonstrate that international demand remains active. For prices to establish a stronger bullish trend, the market would likely need evidence that U.S. production risks are increasing or that global export availability is tightening. Conversely, continued planting progress, adequate crop establishment and strong global competition could maintain pressure on wheat futures. Supply Outlook The U.S. supply outlook is currently mixed. Spring wheat production is moving through the final stages of harvest, reducing uncertainty surrounding the existing crop. However, winter wheat is only beginning its production cycle, meaning the market has limited visibility on final yields. The key risk is therefore shifting from harvest supply toward new-crop production potential. Argentina's expected production decline adds another supportive element to the global supply outlook, while continued European exports indicate that the international market still has substantial available wheat. Demand Outlook Global wheat demand remains an important stabilizing factor. EU exports are slightly ahead of last year's pace, demonstrating continued participation from European suppliers in the international market. The next stage for demand will depend heavily on global import requirements and the relative competitiveness of U.S. wheat against supplies from Europe, Argentina and other major exporters. If global buyers increase purchases while Argentine production expectations decline, demand could provide stronger support to wheat prices. Wheat Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Wheat is entering a transition period. The market is currently being pressured by broad futures weakness and substantial U.S. harvest completion, but attention is rapidly shifting toward the 2026/27 winter wheat crop. The most important near-term development will be U.S. planting progress following the expected rainfall across the Texas Panhandle and Kansas. If planting continues despite the moisture, the market may maintain its focus on adequate supply and competitive global exports. If weather begins to produce more meaningful delays, however, the market could start placing a larger risk premium on winter wheat futures. At the same time, Argentina's projected production decline and continued EU export activity provide evidence that the global wheat balance is not uniformly bearish. The coming sessions are therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to U.S. weather, planting progress, global export competition and changes in production estimates. Currency Hedger View From a Currency Hedger perspective, wheat's international pricing structure means currency movements remain an important secondary factor for global competitiveness. European and Argentine wheat exporters compete directly with U.S. supplies, meaning changes in major currencies can influence the relative attractiveness of wheat from different origins. For commercial participants buying or selling wheat internationally, the interaction between commodity prices and FX rates can materially change the effective cost or revenue of a transaction even when the underlying wheat price is relatively stable. Currency Hedger therefore sees the current environment as one where businesses exposed to international wheat flows should monitor both the underlying commodity market and currency volatility. Forward FX planning and hedging can help reduce uncertainty when future wheat purchases, sales or international payments are exposed to exchange-rate movements. Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets Wheat is currently caught between two opposing forces. The immediate price trend remains under pressure as the U.S. spring wheat harvest approaches completion and global supplies remain competitive, but the forward-looking picture is becoming more weather-sensitive. The 17% winter wheat planting rate, four percentage points behind the five-year average, deserves increasing attention. With only 2% of the crop emerged, the market has a long production window ahead in which weather conditions can influence yield potential. The projected decline in Argentina's wheat crop from 27.8 MMT to 23.4 MMT is another important factor. If that reduction translates into lower export availability while EU exports remain firm, the global wheat balance could become more supportive. For the coming sessions, the critical question is whether U.S. Plains rainfall becomes a temporary planting disruption or develops into a more persistent crop-risk issue. Until there is clearer evidence of production risk, wheat futures may remain vulnerable to selling pressure. However, the combination of delayed winter wheat planting, lower Argentine production expectations and active European exports means the market has several potential sources of support as the 2026/27 crop develops.

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Live Cattle Prices Under Pressure as Tight Cattle Supplies Support Beef Values

Live cattle markets are currently facing a mixed fundamental picture, with futures under pressure even as wholesale beef values strengthen and federally inspected slaughter remains well below last year's levels. The combination of tighter cattle numbers, reduced slaughter and stronger boxed beef prices is providing underlying support to the cash market, while weaker futures and softer feeder cattle prices are reflecting near-term uncertainty. Live cattle futures are currently trading lower across the nearby contracts, while feeder cattle have also pulled back after recent strength. The CME Feeder Cattle Index stands at $338.74, following a 71-cent decline on September 21. At the same time, boxed beef prices are moving higher, with Choice values increasing significantly. This divergence between futures and wholesale beef markets will remain important as feedlots determine asking prices and cash trade develops through the week. The key question for the market is whether tight slaughter numbers and stronger beef values can provide enough support to futures prices, or whether weaker feeder cattle markets and limited cash-market activity will keep pressure on cattle contracts. Cattle Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationOct 2026 Live Cattle$218.775Down $2.175Dec 2026 Live Cattle$219.450Down $2.550Feb 2027 Live Cattle$220.550Down $2.550Sep 2026 Feeder Cattle$337.275Down $0.200Oct 2026 Feeder Cattle$328.025Down $2.225Nov 2026 Feeder Cattle$323.200Down $2.900CME Feeder Cattle Index$338.74Down $0.71Choice boxed beef$378.89Up $2.54Select boxed beef$357.85Up $2.08Tuesday slaughter105,000 headLower than last yearWeek-to-date slaughter210,000 headBelow last week and last yearCash tradeQuietLimited price discoverySupplyTightBullish underlying factor Current Live Cattle Price Action Live cattle futures are currently under pressure after the market moved lower across the nearby contracts. October 2026 live cattle settled at $218.775, down $2.175, while December futures fell $2.550 to $219.450. February 2027 cattle also declined $2.550 to $220.550. The weakness is extending further down the production chain. September feeder cattle declined 20 cents to $337.275, October feeders fell $2.225 to $328.025, and November feeders dropped $2.900 to $323.200. The decline in feeder cattle is important because replacement cattle costs remain a major consideration for feedlot margins. Despite the futures weakness, the underlying beef market is showing considerably more resilience. Wholesale Beef Market Strengthens Wholesale beef values are currently providing a significant supportive signal. The latest USDA afternoon report showed the Choice/Select spread at $21.04, with Choice boxed beef increasing $2.54 to $378.89 and Select rising $2.08 to $357.85. Stronger boxed beef values indicate that demand for wholesale beef remains firm enough to support higher prices even while cattle futures are declining. The relationship between boxed beef and live cattle prices will therefore remain important. If beef values continue to strengthen while slaughter remains below normal, packers could face increasing pressure to secure available cattle. Conversely, if boxed beef prices begin to weaken, the current futures pressure could become more difficult for the market to absorb. Cattle Slaughter Remains Below Last Year Federally inspected slaughter is currently running well below last year's levels. USDA estimated Tuesday's federally inspected cattle slaughter at approximately 105,000 head, bringing the week-to-date total to 210,000 head. That is approximately 1,000 head below the comparable week last week and 19,195 head below the same week last year. The reduction in slaughter is significant because it reflects the tighter cattle supply environment. Lower slaughter can restrict beef production, potentially supporting wholesale beef prices if consumer and foodservice demand remains sufficiently strong. The next major catalyst is likely to be whether weekly slaughter continues to run substantially below year-ago levels. Cash Cattle Market Cash trade is currently starting the week quietly as feedlots compile showlists. Limited cash-market activity means there is not yet a clear price signal from negotiated cattle trade. Feedlots will be watching the strength in wholesale beef prices when establishing asking prices, while packers will be assessing margins and the availability of market-ready cattle. The lack of significant cash trade also increases the importance of futures movements and the developing boxed beef market during the coming sessions. Feeder Cattle Market Feeder cattle futures are currently showing greater downside pressure than the nearby live cattle market. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is at $338.74, while September futures settled at $337.275. October and November contracts are trading substantially lower, highlighting growing caution further along the cattle production cycle. Higher feed costs, replacement-cattle prices and expectations for finished-cattle values will remain central to feeder demand. The recent pullback does not eliminate the longer-term supply constraint, but it does indicate that traders are reassessing how aggressively cattle prices can continue to advance from current levels. Bullish Sentiment 1. Cattle slaughter remains well below last year Week-to-date slaughter is approximately 19,195 head below the comparable period last year, reflecting tighter cattle availability. 2. Boxed beef values are strengthening Choice beef increased $2.54 and Select gained $2.08, providing direct support to the wholesale market. 3. Cattle supplies remain structurally tight Reduced slaughter is consistent with a smaller available supply of market-ready cattle. 4. Choice beef remains at a substantial premium The Choice/Select spread of $21.04 indicates strong relative demand for higher-quality beef. 5. Cash cattle could receive support from stronger beef values If packers require cattle while boxed beef values remain firm, feedlots could have greater negotiating leverage. 6. Lower slaughter can restrict beef production If reduced slaughter persists, total beef availability could remain constrained, potentially supporting wholesale prices. Bearish Sentiment 1. Live cattle futures have moved sharply lower Nearby and deferred contracts are all under pressure, with December and February futures each declining $2.55. 2. Feeder cattle futures are weakening November feeder cattle fell $2.90, signalling increased caution toward replacement-cattle values. 3. Cash trade remains quiet Limited negotiated trade is providing little immediate confirmation of stronger cash cattle prices. 4. Slaughter is also below last week Although lower slaughter can be bullish from a supply perspective, the week-to-date pace is also 1,000 head below the previous week, reflecting reduced processing activity. 5. Futures are trading below recent highs The latest decline indicates that traders are currently willing to price in increased downside risk despite firm wholesale beef values. 6. Feeder cattle costs remain a concern Weakness in feeder futures suggests that market participants are becoming more cautious about the economics of placing cattle at current replacement values. Live Cattle Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The cattle market is currently caught between tight supply and strong beef values on one side, and declining futures and quiet cash trade on the other. The most important question is whether wholesale beef strength will translate into stronger cash cattle prices. If Choice and Select values continue to rise while slaughter remains significantly below year-ago levels, the fundamental argument for higher cash cattle prices could strengthen. However, continued weakness in feeder cattle and futures would indicate that traders are becoming increasingly concerned about demand, feedlot economics or the sustainability of current price levels. The coming cash-market negotiations should therefore provide an important test of the current balance. Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains supportive because federally inspected slaughter is running considerably below last year's level. The current week-to-date deficit of more than 19,000 head versus the comparable period last year highlights the extent of the reduction. Lower slaughter ultimately limits beef production, which can support wholesale prices if demand remains firm. The market will therefore be watching weekly slaughter numbers closely for evidence of whether the supply constraint is becoming more pronounced or beginning to ease. Demand Outlook Demand is currently showing a mixed but important signal. Wholesale beef prices are strengthening, with both Choice and Select moving higher. This suggests that buyers are still willing to pay more for available beef despite the pressure visible in futures. The sustainability of this demand will be critical. If boxed beef values continue rising, the market could eventually place greater emphasis on the underlying supply shortage. If beef values reverse lower, futures could remain vulnerable to further selling. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions For the coming sessions, cattle traders will be focused on cash-market negotiations, boxed beef values, slaughter numbers, feedlot showlists and feeder cattle prices. The market currently lacks a clear directional signal because the futures market is weak while wholesale beef values are strengthening. A stronger cash trade combined with continued boxed beef gains could change the tone of futures trading. Conversely, if cash trade remains quiet and feeder cattle continue to weaken, futures could remain under pressure despite the underlying supply constraint. The next major catalyst is likely to be the development of cash cattle trade and whether feedlots are able to secure stronger prices in response to firm boxed beef values. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger's view of the cattle market also considers the impact of foreign exchange on international beef trade. Movements in the US dollar can influence the competitiveness of US beef exports and the effective cost for international buyers. For companies involved in livestock, meat processing, food distribution or international commodity payments, currency movements can therefore affect margins independently of the underlying cattle price. Businesses exposed to international beef transactions should consider both commodity-price movements and currency exposure when planning future purchases, sales and cross-border payments. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche - Today Markets The cattle market is currently showing a significant divergence between futures and the physical beef market. Futures are under pressure across both live cattle and feeder cattle, while wholesale beef values are strengthening and cattle slaughter remains substantially below last year's level. That combination makes the next stage of cash-market trade particularly important. The current supply picture remains supportive. Week-to-date federally inspected slaughter is more than 19,000 head below the comparable period last year, while Choice and Select boxed beef values have both moved higher. However, futures traders are clearly becoming more cautious. December and February live cattle have both fallen $2.55, while November feeder cattle have declined $2.90. The market is therefore approaching an important test: whether strong boxed beef values and tight cattle supplies can translate into stronger cash cattle prices despite the recent futures correction. For the coming sessions, I will be watching cash trade, boxed beef prices, slaughter levels and feeder cattle values as the key indicators of whether the current futures weakness develops into a deeper correction or begins to stabilise. Louis Roche - Today Markets

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September 23, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall to Three-Month Lows as Record Global Supply Outlook Weighs on Arabica and Robusta

Coffee prices are currently under significant pressure as expectations for abundant global supplies continue to outweigh concerns over tight inventories and potential weather risks. December ICE arabica coffee has fallen sharply to around three-month lows, while November ICE robusta has also weakened substantially as rising exchange inventories reinforce the growing supply narrative. The latest move lower extends a three-week period of weakness in the coffee market. The International Coffee Organization is projecting record global production for 2025/26 and a return to surplus, while the USDA expects another record crop in 2026/27. At the same time, favourable rainfall across Brazil and Vietnam is improving the outlook for upcoming production. Brazil is entering a critical flowering period for its next arabica crop, while improved soil moisture in Vietnam is supporting robusta cherry development. The key question for the market is whether the expanding global supply outlook can continue to dominate the bullish influence of historically low arabica inventories and longer-term weather risks. Coffee Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationDecember NY ArabicaAround three-month lowsBearish short-term momentumNovember ICE RobustaAround three-month lowsBearish supply pressureGlobal 2025/26 productionRecord 183.6M bagsBearishGlobal 2025/26 balance3M-bag surplusBearishGlobal 2026/27 productionUSDA forecasts record 189.7M bagsBearishBrazil 2026/27 cropUSDA forecasts 71.9M bagsBearishBrazil rainfall242% of historical average in Minas GeraisBearish for pricesVietnam production2025/26 forecast at 29.4M bagsBearish robusta factorBrazil August exportsRecord 4.155M bagsBearishICE Arabica stocks258,415 bagsTight but recoveringICE Robusta stocks5,088 lotsBearishEl NiñoSignificant weather riskPotential bullish counterweight Current Coffee Price Action Coffee prices are currently experiencing a pronounced correction after reaching higher levels earlier in the year. December arabica has fallen sharply for two consecutive sessions and is now trading around three-month lows. Robusta has also come under heavy selling pressure, with the decline accelerating as exchange inventories increase. The current market narrative is increasingly centred on supply expansion rather than scarcity. The ICO's latest assessment is particularly important because it points to the first global coffee surplus in five years. Production for 2025/26 is estimated at a record 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year over year, while consumption is expected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That leaves an estimated 3 million-bag surplus. Looking ahead, the USDA is projecting an even larger production number for 2026/27, creating a significant fundamental headwind for prices if weather conditions remain favourable. Global Coffee Supply Outlook The global coffee balance is shifting from a period of tightness toward substantially greater availability. The ICO expects 2025/26 production to reach a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is forecast at 180.6 million bags. The resulting surplus is significant because it represents the first global surplus in five years. The USDA's latest outlook reinforces the bearish supply picture. Global 2026/27 coffee production is forecast to rise another 6.0%, or 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags. The USDA expects arabica production to increase approximately 12% year over year, while robusta production is forecast to decline slightly by 0.7%. Global ending stocks are also expected to rise by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. If these forecasts are realised, the market will have considerably more supply available to absorb demand. Brazil Coffee Production Outlook Brazil remains the most important variable for the global arabica market. The country is currently completing its harvest while simultaneously entering the critical flowering period for the next crop. Recent rainfall has significantly improved the outlook for flowering and future production. Somar Meteorologia reported approximately 33.4 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ending September 20, equivalent to 242% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil's largest arabica-growing region, making rainfall during this stage particularly important. Under normal conditions, improved moisture availability during flowering can support the development of the next crop and increase production potential. The USDA's FAS is already forecasting a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, up approximately 14% year over year. The combination of favourable rainfall and a record production forecast is therefore one of the strongest bearish factors currently facing arabica coffee. Brazilian Coffee Exports Brazilian exports are reinforcing the picture of abundant current supply. Cecafé reported that Brazil's total coffee exports reached 4.155 million bags in August, an increase of 31% year over year and a record for the month. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports surged 54% to 953,592 bags. Separate data from Brazil's Trade Ministry showed August coffee exports increasing approximately 44.6% year over year to 206,618 MT, the highest level in eight months. As Brazil's harvest moves toward completion, more coffee is entering international markets. That additional export availability is putting pressure on futures prices and reducing some of the scarcity premium that previously supported the market. Vietnam Coffee Supply Outlook Vietnam is also contributing to the expanding supply picture, particularly for robusta. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and recent export data indicates strong availability. Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports from January through August 2026 increased 13.7% year over year to 1.33 MMT. Full-year 2025 exports had already increased 17.5% to approximately 1.58 MMT. The country's 2025/26 coffee production is forecast to rise approximately 6% to 1.76 MMT, equivalent to around 29.4 million bags, representing a four-year high. Weather conditions are also currently supportive. Forecaster Vaisala has reported that abundant rainfall has improved soil moisture across Vietnam's Central Highlands, supporting cherry development. This is particularly important for robusta, where the combination of stronger exports, higher production expectations and rising inventories is creating substantial downside pressure. Coffee Inventories Coffee inventories present a contrasting picture between arabica and robusta. ICE arabica inventories remain historically low. Stocks fell to just 217,646 bags, a 27-year low, before recovering to approximately 258,415 bags. Although that recovery has reduced some immediate scarcity concerns, inventories remain low by historical standards. Robusta inventories tell a very different story. ICE robusta stocks have climbed to approximately 5,088 lots, the highest level in roughly 9.75 months. The divergence between the two inventory situations is important. Arabica retains an underlying physical-market support factor because exchange stocks remain historically constrained. Robusta, however, is facing increasing availability, which is helping accelerate the recent price decline. El Niño and Coffee Weather Risk Weather remains the principal factor capable of challenging the current bearish supply narrative. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. El Niño can create significant weather disruptions across coffee-growing regions, including periods of excessive rainfall, drought and temperature fluctuations. For Brazil, the immediate concern is whether the weather pattern could delay rainfall during September and October, when flowering normally occurs. Commercial, a coffee trader, has warned that delayed rainfall during this period could negatively affect Brazil's 2026/27 crop. This creates a major uncertainty for the market. Current rainfall is favourable, but weather patterns can change rapidly. A deterioration during the flowering period could challenge the USDA's record production forecast. Bullish Sentiment 1. Arabica inventories remain historically low ICE arabica stocks recently fell to just 217,646 bags, the lowest level in 27 years. 2. El Niño creates significant production risk A strong El Niño could produce disruptive weather conditions across Brazil, Vietnam and other major coffee-growing regions. 3. Brazil's flowering period is critical Any significant delay in rainfall during September and October could damage flowering and reduce the potential for the 2026/27 crop. 4. Weather conditions remain a major uncertainty The market is increasingly dependent on whether current favourable Brazilian and Vietnamese conditions persist through the full production cycle. 5. Arabica and robusta fundamentals are diverging Extremely low arabica inventories could provide support even while robusta faces increasing supply pressure. 6. Future crop forecasts remain weather-dependent The USDA's record production forecasts assume favourable growing conditions, leaving prices exposed if weather deteriorates. Bearish Sentiment 1. Global coffee production is reaching record levels The ICO expects 2025/26 production to reach 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year over year. 2. The global market has moved into surplus The ICO estimates a 3 million-bag surplus for 2025/26, marking the first surplus in five years. 3. USDA expects another record crop Global 2026/27 production is forecast at 189.7 million bags, up 6%. 4. Brazil's next crop is expected to be exceptionally large The USDA forecasts Brazil's 2026/27 crop at 71.9 million bags, up 14%. 5. Brazilian exports are surging August exports reached a record 4.155 million bags, up 31% year over year. 6. Vietnam production is improving Vietnam's 2025/26 crop is expected to rise 6% to approximately 29.4 million bags. 7. Robusta inventories are increasing ICE robusta stocks have reached a 9.75-month high of 5,088 lots. 8. Global ending stocks are expected to rise The USDA expects world coffee ending stocks to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Coffee Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The coffee market is currently being driven by a powerful supply narrative. The immediate evidence points toward increased availability from Brazil and Vietnam, while the ICO and USDA are both forecasting substantial global production. The main counterweight is weather. The market has already seen how quickly coffee prices can react when crop risks emerge. Historically low arabica inventories provide another layer of support, particularly if physical supply becomes tighter. However, the current direction will depend heavily on whether favourable weather persists long enough to validate the large 2026/27 production forecasts. If Brazilian flowering progresses successfully and Vietnam continues to receive beneficial rainfall, the bearish supply narrative could remain dominant. If El Niño produces a significant disruption during the critical flowering period, traders may rapidly reassess the record-crop assumptions. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is currently expanding. Brazil is bringing its current crop into export channels, Vietnam is reporting stronger exports and production, and both major organisations and the USDA expect global production to reach record or near-record levels. The USDA's forecast for 189.7 million bags in 2026/27 represents a substantial increase from the current season. The major risk to this outlook is weather. Brazil's September-October flowering period is particularly important, and any deterioration in rainfall could quickly alter production expectations. Demand Outlook Demand is currently less supportive than it has been during previous periods of tightness. The ICO expects 2025/26 global consumption to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, even as production rises to a record level. This combination is responsible for the projected 3 million-bag surplus. For prices to establish a stronger recovery, demand would need to improve while supply expectations become less abundant. The market will therefore continue to watch global consumption trends alongside production estimates and inventories. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions For the coming sessions, coffee prices are likely to remain sensitive to Brazilian rainfall, flowering progress, Vietnam's crop conditions, ICE inventories, export data and global production forecasts. The current trend remains dominated by increasing supply. Brazil's record August exports and favourable rainfall are particularly important for arabica, while Vietnam's strong exports and rising robusta inventories are creating additional pressure on the robusta market. The next major catalyst is likely to be fresh evidence regarding Brazil's 2026/27 flowering conditions. A continuation of favourable weather could reinforce expectations for another large crop. Conversely, delayed rainfall or adverse El Niño conditions could quickly return weather risk to the centre of the market. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger views the coffee market through both the commodity-price and foreign-exchange channels. Brazil is particularly important because the Brazilian real influences the local-currency economics of coffee exports. Changes in USD/BRL can therefore affect producer selling incentives even when international coffee futures remain unchanged. For coffee importers, roasters and international traders, movements in the US dollar can also materially change the effective cost of physical coffee. With global coffee supplies expanding while currency markets remain sensitive to interest rates, commodities and geopolitical developments, businesses with significant coffee exposure may need to consider both coffee-price risk and FX risk when planning future purchases. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche Today Markets Coffee is currently facing a major supply-driven correction, with both arabica and robusta prices under pressure as the global production outlook improves. The bearish case is being supported by several developments occurring simultaneously: the ICO is forecasting a 3 million-bag global surplus for 2025/26, the USDA expects record global production in 2026/27, Brazil is reporting exceptionally strong exports and rainfall is currently supporting the next Brazilian crop. Vietnam is also adding to supply, with stronger exports, improving soil moisture and production expected to reach a four-year high. However, the market is not without significant upside risks. Arabica inventories remain historically low, and the potential impact of El Niño cannot be ignored. Brazil's September and October flowering period is particularly important, meaning the current record-production forecasts remain dependent on continued favourable weather. The immediate coffee market is therefore being pulled between abundant supply expectations and historically tight arabica inventories, with weather representing the major variable capable of changing that balance. For the coming sessions, Brazilian flowering conditions, rainfall, Vietnam's crop development and ICE inventory trends should remain the primary indicators for determining whether the current three-month decline extends further or begins to stabilise. Louis Roche - Today Markets

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September 23, 2026

Cocoa Prices Rebound as Ivory Coast Weather Raises 2026/27 Supply Risks

Cocoa prices are currently attempting to stabilise after a sharp correction from the highs reached around the turn of September, with renewed short covering emerging as traders assess the potential impact of drier weather on the developing 2026/27 West African crop. December ICE NY cocoa is currently trading around the recent recovery area after settling 51 points, or 0.95%, higher, while December ICE London cocoa #7 gained 37 points, or 0.93%. The latest price action highlights the increasingly divided cocoa market. Current physical supply remains relatively strong, particularly in the Ivory Coast, while exchange inventories have risen substantially. At the same time, early assessments of the next Ivory Coast crop are raising concerns about poor pod development and below-average cherelle formation. The key question for the market is whether improving current supply can continue to outweigh the risk of declining production during the 2026/27 season. Weather across West Africa, crop quality, inventories and global grinding data will remain central to that assessment. Cocoa Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationNY CocoaRecovering from 1.75-month lowsShort-term bullish recoveryLondon CocoaRecovering from recent lowsStabilising sentimentIvory Coast 2025/26 harvest2.06 MMT, up 30% y/yBearish current supply factorIvory Coast 2026/27 outlookEarly estimates around 1.8 MMTBullish forward supply riskIvory Coast shipments2.14 MMT under international calendarBearish current supply signalNew Ivory Coast marketing year deliveries26,000 MT in Sep. 1–13Potentially bullish early-season signalICE inventories3.435 million bagsBearishGhana 2025/26 crop750,000 MT, up 25.6%Bearish current supply factorGhana 2026/27 outlook450,000–650,000 MT estimatesBullish forward factorGlobal 2026/27 balanceSmall surplus in some forecastsLimits upsideWest African weatherDryness risk developingBullish supply riskCocoa demandMixed across regionsNeutral to mixed Current Cocoa Price Action Cocoa prices are currently trading in a recovery phase after falling to approximately 1.75-month lows. The recent decline followed a period of significant strength, with NY cocoa reaching an 11.75-month high on August 31 and London cocoa reaching a similar high on September 1. The market subsequently came under pressure as traders focused on evidence of strong current-season production and rising exchange inventories. The latest rebound suggests that traders are beginning to look beyond the current crop and toward the next production cycle. Dry-weather forecasts for the Ivory Coast are particularly important because the country is the world's largest cocoa producer. If rainfall becomes insufficient during the early stages of the 2026/27 crop, the market could begin to price lower yields and reduced bean availability. Short covering is also helping the recovery. After the recent decline, traders are reassessing whether downside expectations have become too aggressive given the emerging risks to next season's production. Ivory Coast Cocoa Supply Outlook The Ivory Coast remains the most important supply variable in the global cocoa market. The country's cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported that Ivory Coast harvested approximately 2.06 MMT between June 2025 and June 2026, an increase of 30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier. That substantial increase explains part of the recent pressure on cocoa prices and demonstrates that current physical supply is considerably stronger than during the previous production cycle. However, the outlook for the next crop is considerably less comfortable. Early field assessments indicate below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development, with preliminary estimates putting the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop at approximately 1.8 MMT, around 18% below the estimated 2.2 MMT produced during 2025/26. This creates a significant contrast between the current and forward markets. Current production remains strong, while the developing crop is showing signs that supply could decline substantially during the next season. Ivory Coast Cocoa Shipments Shipment data also needs to be interpreted carefully because the Ivory Coast has changed its marketing-year calendar. Bloomberg reported that cumulative Ivory Coast shipments reached approximately 2.14 MMT during the international cocoa marketing year from October 1, 2025 through September 13, 2026, up 18% from the comparable period. That figure reinforces the picture of strong current supply. However, the Ivory Coast has moved its domestic marketing year forward to September 1. Reuters reported that deliveries during September 1–13 were approximately 26,000 MT, down 45.8% from the comparable period under the previous calendar. The difference between the two reporting systems is important. Traders should avoid treating the shipment figures as directly contradictory. They reflect different marketing-year reference periods. Looking ahead, the pace of new-crop arrivals will provide an important indication of whether the current strong supply trend is continuing into the new season. Cocoa Inventories Rising exchange inventories remain one of the clearest bearish factors for cocoa. ICE cocoa stocks reached a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags on September 4 and remained close to that level at approximately 3,435,088 bags. Higher inventories indicate that physical cocoa is readily available for delivery against futures contracts. This reduces the immediate scarcity premium that previously supported prices and provides fundamental resistance to sustained rallies. The market will therefore need to see either declining inventories or evidence of deteriorating production before the supply situation can be considered structurally tighter. West African Crop Conditions Weather and disease remain important risks for the next crop. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have allowed black pod disease to spread, potentially reducing both cocoa bean quality and usable production. The impact of disease is particularly important because cocoa prices respond not only to total tonnage but also to the quality and availability of exportable beans. The next stage of the crop cycle will therefore be closely watched for evidence of improving weather, disease containment or further deterioration. Ghana Cocoa Production Outlook Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer and represents another important source of forward supply risk. Ghana's Cocoa Board has estimated the 2026/27 crop at approximately 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT in 2025/26. COCOBOD has provided an even wider potential range, forecasting 2026/27 production between 450,000 and 550,000 MT, citing swollen shoot disease, aging farms and potential adverse weather associated with El Niño. The contrast with the current season is substantial. Ghana reported that 750,000 MT had been harvested during 2025/26, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. The market is therefore entering a period in which strong current production could coexist with significantly lower forward production expectations. Global Cocoa Balance The global cocoa balance is becoming tighter, but forecasts still point toward a relatively small surplus rather than an immediate structural deficit. StoneX has reduced its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus forecast to just 25,000 MT, down from 149,000 MT previously, citing the potential impact of El Niño on West African production. Transgraph Consulting has forecast the 2026/27 global surplus at approximately 80,000 MT, down sharply from 415,000 MT in 2025/26. The consultancy expects global production to decline from approximately 5.11 MMT to 4.87 MMT. These projections indicate that the market could move considerably closer to balance. However, the relatively small projected surplus means even modest production losses could materially alter the supply-demand equation. El Niño and Future Weather Risks Weather remains one of the most important medium-term cocoa variables. The US Climate Prediction Center has previously indicated that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than seven decades. An El Niño pattern can produce warmer and drier conditions across parts of West Africa, reducing soil moisture and increasing stress on cocoa trees. For the coming crop cycle, the key issue is whether the weather pattern becomes sufficiently persistent to affect pod development, bean size and overall yields. If dry conditions intensify during critical growing periods, the current forecasts for lower Ivory Coast and Ghana production could prove conservative. Cocoa Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed across the major processing regions. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year over year to 316,366 MT in Q2, according to the European Cocoa Association. This was a larger decline than the 1.5% decrease expected and represented the lowest Q2 grinding level in six years. That remains a significant bearish demand signal. North American demand provided a contrasting picture. The National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings increased 7.7% year over year to 109,659 MT, significantly outperforming expectations for a 1% decline. Asian demand was even stronger, with the Cocoa Association of Asia reporting a 25% year-over-year increase to 224,646 MT during Q2. The global demand picture is therefore not uniformly weak. Europe remains under pressure, while North America and Asia are showing considerably stronger processing activity. Bullish Sentiment 1. Ivory Coast's 2026/27 crop could decline sharply Early crop assessments point toward poor pod development and below-average cherelle formation, with preliminary production estimates around 1.8 MMT. 2. Dry weather could stress West African cocoa Forecast dryness in the Ivory Coast could reduce soil moisture and affect developing pods during the next production cycle. 3. Ghana production forecasts are falling Estimates for Ghana's 2026/27 crop range from approximately 450,000 to 650,000 MT, well below the 750,000 MT achieved in 2025/26. 4. Black pod disease remains a crop-quality risk Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine are allowing black pod disease to spread in parts of the Ivory Coast and Ghana. 5. Global surplus forecasts have been sharply reduced StoneX now sees only a 25,000 MT global surplus for 2026/27, while Transgraph expects an 80,000 MT surplus. 6. Asian cocoa demand is accelerating Asian Q2 grindings increased 25% year over year, providing an important offset to weaker European processing. 7. Short covering is supporting prices The recent decline has created conditions for traders to cover bearish positions when weather risks re-enter the market. Bearish Sentiment 1. Ivory Coast current production is strong The 2025/26 harvest reached 2.06 MMT, up 30% from the previous season. 2. Ivory Coast shipments remain elevated Cumulative shipments under the international marketing-year calendar were approximately 2.14 MMT, up 18% year over year. 3. ICE inventories remain near two-year highs Stocks around 3.435 million bags indicate substantial available supply against futures contracts. 4. The global market is still forecast to show a surplus Even the tighter forecasts from StoneX and Transgraph continue to show a surplus for 2026/27 rather than a deficit. 5. European cocoa demand remains weak European Q2 grindings fell 4.6% year over year and reached their lowest Q2 level in six years. 6. Ghana's current crop is strong The 2025/26 Ghana harvest reached 750,000 MT, up 25.6% from the previous season. 7. Barry Callebaut sees the market as well supplied The world's largest cocoa processor said in September that global cocoa supply is currently sufficient to manage risks more effectively than during the 2023/24 El Niño episode. Cocoa Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key question for cocoa prices is whether the market will continue to price the strong current supply picture or increasingly focus on the possibility of a materially smaller 2026/27 West African crop. The recent rebound suggests that weather risk is becoming increasingly important. A sustained move higher would require more evidence that dry weather, disease and weak pod formation are translating into lower production. Conversely, continued strong arrivals from the Ivory Coast combined with elevated ICE inventories could keep rallies under pressure. The current balance is therefore highly sensitive to new crop information. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is shifting from relatively comfortable current availability toward greater uncertainty for the next season. The Ivory Coast's strong 2025/26 harvest provides immediate bearish pressure, but early evidence from the 2026/27 crop suggests that production could fall sharply. Ghana faces similar risks, with disease, aging farms and weather uncertainty threatening production. The next major supply catalyst is likely to be confirmation of the actual condition of the Ivory Coast main crop as harvesting develops. Demand Outlook Demand remains mixed rather than uniformly weak. Europe is showing significant pressure, while North America and Asia are reporting stronger grinding activity. This divergence means that global demand cannot currently be characterised by a single trend. Future cocoa consumption will depend partly on chocolate demand, processor margins and how consumers respond to elevated cocoa costs. A continued recovery in Asian and North American grinding would provide an important counterweight to weak European demand. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions For the coming sessions, cocoa prices are likely to remain sensitive to Ivory Coast weather, new-crop arrivals, Ghana production expectations, ICE inventories and global grinding data. The market is currently caught between strong physical availability and increasingly concerning forward crop conditions. If dry weather becomes more persistent and early crop assessments continue to point toward poor pod development, traders could increasingly price a smaller 2026/27 crop. If new-crop arrivals remain strong and exchange inventories continue to hold near two-year highs, however, the market could struggle to sustain a larger recovery. The next major catalyst is likely to be fresh evidence regarding Ivory Coast crop conditions and the pace of early-season deliveries. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger views the cocoa market through both the commodity and foreign-exchange channels. For cocoa processors, traders and international businesses, changes in the US dollar and West African currencies can alter the effective cost of physical cocoa even when ICE futures prices remain relatively stable. The interaction between cocoa prices, USD movements and international payment costs therefore remains important for businesses with significant cross-border commodity exposure. Managing the currency component of cocoa transactions can help businesses reduce the impact of exchange-rate volatility while they remain exposed to changing global cocoa prices. Currency Hedger Analysis Louis Roche Today Markets Cocoa is currently at an important point between a strong current supply picture and a potentially tighter 2026/27 production outlook. The market has already shown how quickly sentiment can change when traders move from focusing on current inventories and strong Ivory Coast production to assessing future weather and crop risks. The immediate bearish factors remain significant. Ivory Coast production has been strong, shipments have increased and ICE inventories are near two-year highs. European grinding activity also remains weak. However, the forward picture is becoming less comfortable. Early Ivory Coast crop assessments indicate poor pod development, Ghana faces substantial production risks, black pod disease remains a concern and weather forecasts could introduce additional stress across West Africa. The balance between these factors is likely to determine whether the recent recovery develops into a broader trend or remains a short-covering move. For the coming market period, Ivory Coast weather and crop development should remain at the centre of cocoa analysis, while ICE inventories and global grinding data will provide the clearest evidence of whether the physical market is tightening or remaining well supplied. Louis RocheToday Markets

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September 23, 2026

Sugar Prices Rebound as Brazil Rain Slows Harvest While Global Deficit Risks Build Into 2027

Sugar markets are currently balancing two opposing forces: near-term demand weakness and improving physical availability on one side, against growing production risks in Brazil, India and Thailand on the other. NY world sugar #11 has recently come under pressure after reaching a multi-month high earlier in September, but prices recovered as concerns over excessive Brazilian rainfall began to affect expectations for the pace of the Center-South harvest. October NY world sugar #11 settled at 17.58 cents per pound, up 0.11 cents, or 0.63%, while December London ICE white sugar #5 gained 0.40 points, or 0.08%. The recovery followed an earlier decline that pushed NY sugar to a four-week low and London sugar to a roughly six-week low. The market is therefore moving into a critical period. Physical demand remains a significant bearish consideration, but the supply outlook for the 2026/27 season is becoming increasingly dependent on weather. Recent rainfall has already raised concerns about Brazil's harvesting pace, while India's monsoon deficit and Thailand's production outlook add further uncertainty. Sugar Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SituationMarket ImplicationNY Sugar #11Around 17.58 cents/lbRecovering after recent selling pressureLondon White Sugar #5Around 538–540/MT areaStabilising after recent weaknessBrazilExcess rainfall disrupting harvest paceBullish supply riskIndiaMonsoon rainfall 15% below normalPotential production pressureThailand2026/27 production forecast significantly lowerBullish global supply factorPhysical demandLarge October London deliveryBearish demand signalGlobal 2025/26 balanceSurplus expectedBearish near-term fundamental backdropGlobal 2026/27 balanceDeficit projected by several analystsBullish forward-looking factorEl NiñoWeather risk remains elevatedPotentially bullishCommodity fundsNY net longs near three-year highLiquidation risk remains elevated Current Sugar Price Action Sugar prices are currently attempting to stabilise after a sharp change in sentiment from the highs seen earlier in September. NY sugar reached a 17.25-month high on September 10, supported by expectations that the global market could move into deficit. Since then, attention has shifted toward demand and positioning. The large delivery against the expired October London contract is particularly important because 499,350 MT was delivered, approximately 91% higher than a year earlier and among the largest October deliveries on record. That physical delivery points to weaker immediate demand and provides a fundamental reason for recent selling pressure. However, the subsequent recovery indicates that traders are increasingly willing to price weather risk back into the market. Excess rainfall in Brazil can delay cane harvesting, extend the crushing season and potentially affect sugar output. Brazilian industry reporting has also highlighted the possibility that excessive precipitation could alter the harvest calendar and increase the risk of lower sugar and ethanol production. Brazil Sugar Supply and Harvest Outlook Brazil remains the most important supply variable for the global sugar market. The current concern is not simply how much cane is available, but how quickly it can be harvested and processed. Excess rainfall across parts of the Center-South has raised concerns that mills could face harvesting interruptions and that the production cycle could extend further into the season. Earlier UNICA data showed that cumulative Center-South sugar production had already been running below the previous season despite higher cane crushing, highlighting the importance of the sugar-versus-ethanol production mix as well as total cane availability. This remains important because stronger crude oil prices can encourage Brazilian mills to direct more cane toward ethanol rather than sugar, reducing the amount of sugar entering the export market. The USDA's 2026/27 forecast currently places Brazilian sugar production at 42.5 MMT, down 3.0% year over year. The next major catalyst is therefore likely to be the combination of Brazilian rainfall, harvesting progress and the percentage of cane being allocated toward sugar versus ethanol. India Sugar Production and Monsoon Conditions India is another increasingly important source of supply uncertainty. The latest monsoon data shows cumulative rainfall approximately 15% below normal, with the monsoon beginning its seasonal withdrawal while significant rainfall deficits remain. This matters because India is the world's second-largest sugar producer and sugarcane production is highly dependent on adequate rainfall and water availability. The USDA has previously projected 2026/27 Indian sugar production at 33.6 MMT, representing a 12% increase from the previous season on the assumption of favourable monsoon conditions and increased acreage. The current weather picture introduces an important risk to that projection. India's decision to permit up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without duty through October 31 is also significant. India is normally a major sugar exporter, so the need for additional imports highlights the tighter domestic balance following weaker production. Recent Indian market reporting indicates that domestic sugar production fell substantially during 2025/26 and that opening stocks for 2026/27 could remain historically low. The market will therefore continue to monitor whether the late-season monsoon provides enough moisture to protect the next crop. Thailand Sugar Production Outlook Thailand is another important supply risk. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production at approximately 10 MMT, down around 17% year over year. The USDA has also forecast a significant decline, placing Thai production at approximately 9.5 MMT, down 15.6%. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, meaning a sustained production decline would have implications beyond the domestic market. This creates an increasingly important distinction between the near-term surplus narrative and the forward global balance. Current inventories and physical deliveries can weigh on prices, while lower production in major exporting countries can tighten availability further into 2027. Global Sugar Balance The global supply outlook is becoming increasingly divided between the current season and the next crop cycle. For 2025/26, the International Sugar Organization expects record global production of approximately 182 MMT, up 3.5% year over year, with a projected 1.1 MMT surplus. For 2026/27, however, the ISO expects production to decline approximately 1% to 180.1 MMT, resulting in a projected 200,000 MT deficit. Other analysts see a substantially tighter market. StoneX has projected a 1.7 MMT deficit, while Covrig Analytics has also moved away from a surplus outlook. Czarnikow has gone further by forecasting a 2.9 MMT deficit for 2027/28, reflecting lower expected cane and beet plantings and weather-related production risks. These forecasts are not identical, but they point toward the same key issue: the global sugar balance could become considerably tighter after the current season. Inventory and Physical Market Physical demand remains one of the biggest bearish factors for sugar. The 499,350 MT London October delivery is particularly notable because it was approximately 91% higher than the previous year and ranks among the largest October deliveries on record. That suggests that physical buyers have not been absorbing supply as aggressively as the market might have expected during the recent rally. The immediate consequence is that sugar futures can remain vulnerable to further selling if demand does not improve. At the same time, the market needs to distinguish between weak current demand and future supply availability. A surplus during 2025/26 does not automatically mean that the 2026/27 market will remain oversupplied. Commodity Fund Positioning Positioning is another important risk. The latest weekly COT report showed commodity funds increasing their NY sugar net-long position by 791 contracts during the week ended September 15, bringing total net longs to approximately 161,342 contracts, the highest level in almost three years. This creates a two-sided situation. If weather and production fundamentals continue to deteriorate, the large long position can provide additional fuel for a rally. If prices break important technical support levels and fundamental demand remains weak, however, the same positioning can create significant liquidation pressure. Macro Influences: Crude Oil, Ethanol and the Dollar Crude oil remains an important secondary driver. Higher oil prices can encourage Brazilian mills to produce more ethanol relative to sugar, potentially reducing exportable sugar supply. Lower oil prices have the opposite effect by making sugar production relatively more attractive. The Brazilian real is also important. A stronger real can reduce the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell sugar into international markets because dollar-denominated returns become less attractive in local currency terms. Currency movements therefore remain an important component of the supply equation, particularly as Brazil enters the later stages of the harvest. Bullish Sentiment 1. Brazilian rainfall could slow sugar production Excess rainfall is creating harvesting and crushing risks in Brazil, potentially reducing the amount of sugar reaching the export market in the near term. 2. Global 2026/27 deficit forecasts are increasing The ISO currently projects a 200,000 MT deficit, while other analysts have forecast significantly larger shortfalls. 3. India faces continuing weather uncertainty A 15% monsoon deficit leaves uncertainty around the production potential of the world's second-largest sugar producer. 4. Thailand production is expected to decline Lower Thai production could reduce export availability from one of the world's most important sugar suppliers. 5. Ethanol can compete with sugar production Higher energy prices can encourage Brazilian mills to allocate more cane toward ethanol, potentially reducing sugar output. 6. El Niño remains a forward supply risk Weather-related disruption across Brazil, India and Thailand could tighten the global balance if dry conditions affect cane development and yields. Bearish Sentiment 1. Physical demand remains weak The exceptionally large London October delivery points to subdued immediate physical demand. 2. The current global balance remains comfortable The ISO still expects a 1.1 MMT global surplus for 2025/26, with record production estimated at around 182 MMT. 3. Large speculative long positions increase liquidation risk Funds hold one of their largest NY sugar net-long positions in several years, leaving the market vulnerable to position unwinding. 4. India could still produce more sugar than last season The USDA's 2026/27 forecast calls for Indian production of 33.6 MMT, up 12%, based on increased acreage and favourable rainfall assumptions. 5. Global ending stocks are not collapsing The USDA expects 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks to increase approximately 2% to 44.41 MMT. 6. A recovery in Brazilian harvesting conditions could pressure prices If rainfall disruptions fade and mills accelerate crushing, additional Brazilian supply could quickly return to the international market. Sugar Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The key question for the market is whether the recent weakness represents a normal correction within a tightening 2026/27 fundamental outlook or the beginning of a deeper liquidation cycle. The market has already demonstrated that it can rally strongly when traders focus on future deficits. The September high showed how aggressively sugar can respond when supply concerns dominate sentiment. The current environment is more complicated. Near-term demand is weak, physical deliveries have been large and speculative positioning is elevated. At the same time, Brazil is experiencing weather-related harvesting concerns, India faces a significant monsoon deficit and Thailand production forecasts are falling. The next directional move is therefore likely to depend on whether supply concerns become strong enough to overwhelm the current demand and positioning headwinds. Supply Outlook The supply outlook is becoming increasingly weather-dependent. Brazil remains the largest swing factor, with rainfall now affecting the pace of harvesting. India and Thailand provide additional uncertainty, particularly as the market moves toward the 2026/27 production cycle. The longer-term outlook therefore remains more constrained than the current surplus might suggest. Demand Outlook Demand remains the clearest near-term challenge. The large London delivery indicates that buyers are not aggressively absorbing available physical sugar at current prices. If demand remains subdued, rallies could continue to attract selling from producers and speculative longs. A sustained improvement in physical demand would therefore be an important confirmation signal for any broader recovery. Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions For the coming sessions, sugar is likely to remain highly sensitive to Brazilian weather, harvest progress, fund positioning, crude oil and developments in India. The market is currently caught between a weak near-term demand picture and an increasingly uncertain medium-term supply outlook. A continuation of Brazilian rainfall disruption could encourage another round of short covering and shift attention back toward the 2026/27 deficit narrative. Conversely, improving harvest conditions combined with weak physical demand could encourage funds to reduce their large long exposure, increasing downside volatility. The next major catalyst is likely to be fresh evidence on the pace of Brazil's Center-South harvest and whether current weather disruption materially changes expected sugar output. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the sugar market as increasingly sensitive to the interaction between commodity prices and foreign-exchange conditions. For international sugar buyers and producers, movements in the Brazilian real and US dollar can materially change the economics of physical transactions even when the ICE sugar price itself is relatively stable. The current environment therefore warrants close monitoring of USD/BRL alongside crude oil and ICE sugar futures. A stronger Brazilian real can reduce selling pressure from Brazilian producers, while a weaker currency can improve local-currency returns from dollar-denominated exports. For businesses exposed to sugar imports, exports or international commodity payments, forward currency management can help reduce the impact of these parallel commodity and FX movements. Currency Hedger Today Markets View Sugar is entering a potentially important transition period. The immediate fundamental picture remains mixed: physical demand is weak and the current global balance still shows a surplus, while the forward outlook increasingly points toward tighter supply conditions. Brazilian weather is now one of the most important variables. If excessive rainfall continues to interfere with harvesting, the market could increasingly price the risk of lower available supply. India and Thailand provide additional sources of uncertainty, while elevated speculative positioning could amplify moves in either direction. For traders, the distinction between near-term surplus conditions and the emerging 2026/27 deficit narrative remains critical. Today Markets will continue to monitor Brazilian harvest progress, Indian rainfall, Thai production, crude oil, currency movements and commodity-fund positioning as the principal drivers of the next major sugar move. Today Markets CTA For businesses exposed to international sugar prices, commodity-linked currencies or cross-border payments, understanding both the underlying commodity market and the associated FX risk is increasingly important. Currency Hedger provides specialist international currency and hedging solutions designed to help businesses manage exchange-rate exposure alongside their global payment requirements.

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Markets

September 23, 2026

Cotton Prices Slip as US Crop Conditions Deteriorate and Certified Stocks Tighten

Cotton futures closed lower on Tuesday, with contracts falling between 16 and 55 points as pressure from weaker crude oil prices and a firmer US dollar outweighed signs of tightening certified cotton availability. The latest USDA data also showed US cotton ginnings running below last year's pace, while crop condition ratings remained weak, particularly in Texas. The October 2026 Cotton contract closed at 79.69 cents per pound, down 16 points, while December cotton fell 55 points to 82.87 cents. March 2027 cotton declined 51 points to 85.57 cents. US Cotton Ginnings Lag Last Year's Pace USDA's latest Cotton Ginnings report showed 429,250 running bales of cotton had been ginned by September 15, representing an 8% decline from the same period last year. The slower ginning pace provides some underlying support to cotton prices by highlighting the possibility of tighter near-term supplies. However, the market remains focused on the eventual size and quality of the 2026 US crop as harvesting activity accelerates. Weekly Crop Progress data showed US cotton condition ratings at 34% good/excellent, down another 2 percentage points from the previous week. The Brugler500 index also slipped 1 point to 295, while Texas ratings fell by 5 points. The deterioration in Texas is particularly important because the state remains the largest US cotton-producing region. Continued declines in crop conditions could increase concerns over final yields, although the market still needs to see how harvest results translate into actual production. Certified Cotton Stocks Continue to Decline The physical market provided another supportive signal. The Seam reported sales of 769 bales on Monday at an average price of 79.25 cents per pound, while the Cotlook A Index declined 95 points on September 21 to 91.35 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks fell by another 6,192 bales on September 21, leaving certified inventories at just 29,556 bales. The decline in certified stocks is potentially supportive for futures because it indicates a tighter pool of deliverable cotton. Nevertheless, this remains only one part of the broader supply-and-demand picture, and weak export demand or improving new-crop availability could limit the impact. Dollar and Crude Oil Add Pressure Cotton also faced pressure from broader macroeconomic factors. Crude oil declined by 57 cents per barrel, while the US Dollar Index gained 0.084 points. A stronger dollar can make US cotton less competitive for international buyers, while lower energy prices can reduce some of the cost pressures associated with agricultural production and transportation. The combination of a firmer dollar and softer crude prices therefore provided a modest bearish influence during Tuesday's session. Cotton Futures Prices ContractSettlementDaily ChangeOctober 2026 Cotton79.69¢/lb-16 pointsDecember 2026 Cotton82.87¢/lb-55 pointsMarch 2027 Cotton85.57¢/lb-51 points Bullish Factors US cotton ginnings are 8% below last year's pace. US crop conditions remain weak at only 34% good/excellent. Texas crop ratings declined another 5 points. ICE certified stocks have fallen to 29,556 bales. Continued deterioration in crop conditions could create concerns over US yield potential. Bearish Factors Cotton futures closed lower across the board. The US dollar strengthened, potentially reducing export competitiveness. Crude oil prices declined. The Cotlook A Index fell to 91.35 cents per pound. The market remains vulnerable to pressure if harvesting confirms sufficient new-crop supply. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger sees the cotton market as fundamentally mixed with a cautious bullish underlying bias, rather than a clear directional breakout. The strongest supportive signals are coming from declining US crop conditions, slower ginning activity and rapidly falling ICE certified stocks. These factors could become increasingly important if the US harvest produces lower-than-expected yields. However, the stronger dollar and weaker crude oil prices are working against the market, while futures remain vulnerable to selling pressure if physical supplies increase as harvest progresses. Near-term sentiment: Neutral to cautiously bullish. For businesses exposed to cotton purchases or sales in US dollars, movements in USD exchange rates should also be monitored alongside the commodity price, as currency fluctuations can materially alter the effective cost of international cotton transactions. Currency Hedger provides foreign exchange, international payment and currency-risk solutions for businesses managing cross-border transactions. Monitor Cotton and Currency Risk Businesses with cotton-related USD exposure should monitor both cotton futures and the USD exchange rate as harvest data develops. Currency Hedger can assist businesses in managing the FX component of international transactions through currency conversion and hedging solutions. Today Markets will continue monitoring US crop conditions, ginning figures, certified inventories, export demand and currency movements for further signals on the cotton market. Today Markets Market analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading or financial advice. Commodity and foreign exchange markets are volatile and prices can move rapidly.

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Banks

September 22, 2026

New Zealand Dollar: Hawkish RBNZ pricing supports kiwi – MUFG

MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as the main overnight mover, boosted by hawkish guidance from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Breman. His comments on higher Oil-driven inflation have reinforced expectations for a third consecutive 25 bps hike next month. Stronger-than-expected Q2 growth and markets pricing over 100 bps of tightening by next summer underpin the kiwi’s firmer tone. Kiwi lifted by RBNZ tightening bets "While rising US rates are encouraging a stronger US dollar, the positive impact is being offset by expectations for further policy tightening outside of the US as well. The bigger mover overnight in the FX market has been the New Zealand dollar." "The kiwi has been boosted by hawkish comments from RBNZ Governor Breman who indicated that “if higher oil prices persist, they are expected to result in somewhat higher near-term inflation than we assumed” in September monetary policy statement”." "The comments have reinforced markets expectations for the RBNZ to deliver a third consecutive 25bps rate hike at next month’s policy meeting. It follows stronger than expected growth of 0.2% in Q2 as well." "The New Zealand rate market is now pricing in around 18bps of hikes for next month and just over 100bps of hikes by next summer."

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Energies

September 22, 2026

WTI falls to near $90.00 after news of Iran proposing reopening Hormuz

WTI falls as Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases pressure. Easing market anxiety from high-volume tanker navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could ease pressure on oil prices. Satellite data revealed Saudi Arabia's Gulf terminals hosted supertankers carrying 14 million barrels over the weekend. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its losing streak after losing daily gains, trading around $90.20 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices lose ground after Kyodo News noted a senior Iranian official, saying that Iran has offered to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz within seven days on the condition that the United States takes concrete initial steps toward reducing economic and military pressure on Tehran. The diplomatic proposal was transmitted to Washington through third-party intermediaries as international leaders gather for the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Iranian officials plan to leverage the summit to engage with mediator nations to help de-escalate tensions and revive broader peace talks. Geopolitical attention remains focused on US President Donald Trump, who is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly later in the day. His agenda includes a possible side meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, alongside planned talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and leaders from other Gulf nations throughout the week. Additionally, the Trump administration has proposed establishing a $5 billion fund to support the reconstruction of war-damaged infrastructure across the Middle East. However, oil prices could see downward pressure as market anxiety eased after energy supplies successfully navigated through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Highlighting this flow, Saudi Arabia moved crude through the Strait of Hormuz at a rate of 2.9 million barrels per day over the past six days. Satellite images also revealed supertankers with a combined capacity of 14 million barrels docked at Saudi Arabia’s Gulf export terminals over the weekend, representing the highest tanker count observed since at least June. Brent slips back toward $100 as Middle East diplomacy hopes build Strategists at Deutsche Bank highlight that “markets have put in a strong performance over the last 24 hours,” even as Brent crude “briefly [fell] beneath $100/bbl again as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution in the Middle East.” They note that the move in Brent, which saw the benchmark down “-3.40%,” came against this backdrop of improving sentiment around regional diplomacy.

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Banks

September 22, 2026

Federal Reserve: Hiking path constrained by supply shocks – BNY

John Velis at BNY Markets argues that current US inflation is being driven by non-rate-sensitive components of core PCE, limiting how effective further Federal Reserve tightening can be. He expects one more rate hike in December 2026 but questions whether all the hikes priced for 2027 will be delivered, given the nature of the inflation shock and potential demand destruction. Policy hikes face structural inflation limits "We expect the Fed to raise rates once more for 2026 at the December meeting. Into 2027, we’re less sure whether the Fed can proceed with as many hikes as the market has priced in. The answer hinges on how effective tighter policy can be given the current inflation shock." "If tightening serves to cool demand without affecting those prices that are key contributors to current services inflation, we may see the Fed have to relent next year." "This isn’t to say we disagree with the move to increase rates, nor the expectation that they’ll continue to rise somewhat. Our point is that the current policy regime is more about preserving credibility and the Fed’s inflation-fighting bona fides than about rate actions that will, by themselves, crimp inflation, unless demand is similarly restrained." "For now, we understand the market’s hawkish pricing, but we’re watching for the unintended consequences that could change the outlook." "Even if we were to see some welcome relief on energy prices, a positive supply shock relative to the status quo – and the economy reacting accordingly – doesn’t mean traditional demand-driven inflation can be ruled out."

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UOB

September 22, 2026

Australian Dollar: Consolidation continues below resistance against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see AUD/USD consolidating around 0.7120 after a brief spike to 0.7140. Intraday price action is viewed as part of a 0.7105–0.7135 range. They still hold a negative 1–3 week stance, conditional on resistance at 0.7140, but acknowledge that the probability of a drop to 0.7050 has diminished considerably. Australian Dollar stuck in tight range "24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, AUD rose briefly to 0.7140 before retreating to close 0.11% lower at 0.7119. The brief advance did not result in any increase in upward momentum, and the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.7105 and 0.7135." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After holding a negative AUD view since last Monday, in our most recent narrative from Thursday (17 Sep, spot at 0.7090), we stated that AUD “is expected to drop to 0.7050.” We added that “we will maintain our view as long as AUD holds below 0.7140 (‘strong resistance’ level).” Yesterday, AUD rose briefly to 0.7140 and then retreated. As our ‘strong resistance’ level has not been clearly breached, we will maintain our negative stance for now. However, the likelihood of AUD reaching 0.7050 has diminished considerably."

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Energies

September 22, 2026

Commodity Talk – Oil, Natgas, Cotton, Cocoa

Key takeaways Divergent sentiment in commodity markets: The commodity sector is characterized by a slight prevalence of declines, while precious and industrial metals maintain strong, historical upward trends. Situation in the natural gas market (Natgas): Quotes are under pressure from forecasts of higher temperatures and a delay in the US heating season, despite high demand for electricity. Impact of geopolitics on crude oil: Oil prices are reacting with high volatility to reports from the Middle East, tensions surrounding Iran, and changes in the volume of exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply and demand balance in cotton and cocoa: The cotton market is feeling the effects of lower USDA harvest forecasts, while cocoa is struggling with high exchange inventories and fluctuations in supply from West Africa. Market Situation The second session of the last full week of September in commodity markets brings a moderate mix of sentiment, with a slight bias toward negative changes and a daily average of -0.09%. Agricultural and livestock commodities performed best on a daily basis, led by orange juice (+4.33%) and live cattle (+2.02%). On the other hand, precious metals and selected agricultural commodities came under the strongest selling pressure, reflecting a 2.03% decline in silver and a 1.95% drop in EU sugar. Despite ongoing corrections, the long-term price structure for industrial and precious metals remains tilted heavily upward. Extreme statistical deviations (Z-score above 1.5σ) are recorded for copper (+2.87σ), zinc (+2.02σ), as well as gold and silver, indicating a strong, historical upward trend in this segment. A contrasting situation is seen in the livestock sector, where lean hogs, despite a daily rebound, remain deeply below their multi-year average (-1.75σ). The macroeconomic context is heavily marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over energy commodity supplies. Threats of sanctions against Iranian airlines and rising oil and gas prices are boosting inflation fears in Europe, which translates directly into commodity valuations and broader market behavior. In the near term, investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments around oil transit routes and central bank reactions to sustained cost pressures. Since the beginning of this year, orange juice, coffee, and US natural gas remain sharply lower. Precious metals, except gold (which posts a minimal YTD decline), remain low. A large portion of commodities show rather negative signals from MACD. Source: XTB From a slightly shorter-term perspective (1 year), highly overbought markets include corn, sugar, soybeans, and European gas. At the same time, lean hogs remain heavily oversold, with coffee and cattle also somewhat oversold. Source: XTB Natgas The current price of natural gas (NATGAS) stands at 2.837, recording a weekly decline of 1.77%, while over a monthly horizon a gain of 1.21% is visible. On an annual basis, quotes are down 0.84%, and since the beginning of the year (YTD), the sell-off reaches 22.10%. The RSI indicator sits at 38, bringing the market close to the oversold zone, alongside bearish signals from simple moving averages (SMA) and the MACD indicator. However, the price remains minimally above the 50-period moving average (SMA50: +0.39%) with neutral market sentiment. After September 23, a rollover to the new futures contract will take place, which is currently trading at 3 USD/MMBTU, near recent local highs. Fundamental and Market Context Energy markets are grappling with nervousness caused by geopolitical tensions in regions responsible for global security of commodity supplies. Natural gas prices in Europe slipped below 80 EUR/MWh amid hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. European storage levels remain below their 5-year average, but significantly lower gas withdrawal is being observed, suggesting a potentially delayed start to the heating season. Financial institutions point to a strong short-term correlation between energy assets and global macroeconomic indicators. Diplomatic efforts in the Middle East exert periodic pressure on commodity assets, driving volatility in the fossil fuel segment. Asian buyers of energy commodities are monitoring alternative logistics routes and loading logistics in the Red Sea region. Gas demand outlooks in the US and Europe depend on upcoming weather forecasts for the seasonal transition period. North American countries are seeking new export markets in Asia amid rising trade and regulatory frictions. Hedge fund positioning in natural gas futures reflects a neutral stance in the absence of clear weather catalysts. Gas production on Monday in the US reached nearly 113 bcfd, a level 4% higher than a year ago. Although temperatures are higher, gas consumption reached 74.1 bcfd, up a staggering 8% year-on-year, driven by increased electricity demand. In the week ending September 16, US electricity generation was up 16.1% y/y, while over the last 52 weeks, electricity output was 3.3% higher y/y. Warm temperatures in the US in the near term could delay the start of the heating season. Source: NOAA Short positions on NATGAS rose to an extremely high level of over 500,000 contracts, pushing net positions into oversold territory relative to the average. In the past, such high short positioning did not always signal a medium- or long-term trend reversal. Source: CFTC, XTB US gas inventories remain above the 5-year average, but levels are not extremely high. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) The Z-score indicator for natural gas stands at -0.77 for the 1-year horizon (Z1Y), -0.99 for the 2-year horizon (Z2Y), and -0.50 for the 5-year horizon (Z5Y). Analyzing the 5-year Z-score dynamics over the past six months, this value stood at -0.46 six months ago, dipped to -0.33 three months ago, dropped sharply to -0.55 one month ago, before returning to its current level of -0.50. Such volatility and persistent negative values reflect a deep, structural undervaluation of the commodity relative to historical averages. This implies an elevated risk of sharp mean-reversion moves in the event of supply shocks or sudden temperature shifts in key consuming regions. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: This scenario will materialize in the event of a sudden deterioration in weather conditions across North America and Europe, which would drastically boost heating demand, accompanied by a draw in domestic inventories reported by government agencies and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global energy supply routes. Technically, the market needs to break resistance around 3.00, generating buy signals on the MACD and SMA indicators, opening the door for further gains toward a target level of 3.25. Bearish Scenario: The bearish scenario assumes continued mild weather conditions in the upcoming season, leading to further weakening of industrial demand and accumulation of commodity surpluses in underground storage in the US and Europe, amplified by a global drop in risk aversion in commodity markets. A necessary condition is a sustained breakdown below support at 2.75 and the RSI indicator staying below 40, bringing natural gas quotes down toward a target region of 2.50. Oil WTI crude is trading at 92.9 USD, recording a weekly decline of 4.13%, while rising 9.76% over a monthly horizon. Year-to-date (YTD) gains stand at an impressive +62.85%, and on an annual scale, the commodity has gained 46.50%. The RSI indicator sits at a neutral reading of 53, slightly above local trough levels from pullbacks in early and late August. The SMA25 and SMA50 moving averages generate a bullish signal, whereas the MACD indicator points to a dominance of bearish signals. Price remains 7.19% above the 50-period SMA moving average, with neutral market sentiment. Fundamental and Market Context Crude oil prices are currently determining the behavior of all other financial assets over the short-term horizon. Brent crude recorded a momentary drop below 100 USD per barrel in response to emerging hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict. Russia's Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces carried out a strike on an oil refinery located in Kremenchuk, Ukraine. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened a complete grounding and lockout of Iranian airlines from global airports, triggering geopolitical tensions. US authorities are exerting unprecedented pressure on Iran, translating directly into fears over conflict escalation and security of supply. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met in Tehran with his Iranian counterpart Eskandar Momeni to discuss regional peace amid a stalemate in US talks. Saudi Arabia decided to increase crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Although officially ship counts are down sharply, Saudi Arabia was reported exporting up to 3 million barrels per day through Hormuz over the past week. Saudi giant Aramco unofficially informed several Asian refiners that they will soon be able to receive crude directly from the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea. A sharp pullback in crude prices acted as a powerful catalyst for a broad rally in equity markets, generating an energy relief effect. The global energy supply chain situation remains highly sensitive to headlines from the Middle East and US administration actions toward producing nations. Brent crude remains in the demand destruction zone. According to industry reports, particularly in the Asian region, demand destruction can occur even at 95 USD per barrel, though previously a range of 100-120 USD per barrel was indicated. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) The current Z-score indicator for crude oil stands at Z1Y +0.97, Z2Y +1.61, and Z5Y +1.09. Analyzing the 5-year Z-score dynamics over the past six months, it stood at +0.62 1 month ago, -0.33 3 months ago, and +1.65 6 months ago. On a 6-month view, the valuation first experienced a sharp dip into negative territory before rebounding significantly and stabilizing at the current elevated positive level. Such volatility indicates periodic deviations from historical norms, which at current positive levels signals a heightened risk of valuation correction toward multi-year averages, reflecting strong fundamental and market tensions. Note the generation of two recent overvaluation signals relative to the 5-year average and one signal relative to the 2-year average. The effectiveness of the signal based on the 3-month average is mixed. The average return remains positive for short positions over weekly, monthly, 3-month, and 1-year horizons, whereas the median return remains negative in almost every case. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: The bullish scenario depends on further escalation of US-Iran tensions, implementation of drastic Washington sanctions crippling Iranian transport, and potential disruptions in key Middle East maritime bottlenecks such as the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, holding support above the 50-period SMA and decisively breaching resistance at 100 USD per barrel for Brent crude is required, which alongside strong Asian refiner demand would open the path to test 105.00 USD and further price highs. Bearish Scenario: The bearish scenario assumes a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, permanently unwinding the geopolitical risk premium, alongside a calm-down in Red Sea and Persian Gulf export flows. Technically, a breakdown below key support levels, a fall beneath local lows, and a sustained close under the 50-period SMA are required, which as bullish signals fade would deepen the sell-off toward 88.00 USD, with potential to test support at 85.50 USD. Cotton The current price of cotton is 82.81, reflecting a 1.58% weekly drop and a 6.09% monthly decline, alongside strong year-to-date (YTD) gains of 29.53% and an annual rise of 24.45%. The RSI indicator sits at a very low reading of 25, indicating deep oversold conditions, while the simple moving average (SMA) generates a bullish signal and the MACD indicator remains in a bearish trend. Quotes are 1.88% below the 50-day moving average (SMA50), while market sentiment remains neutral. Price bounced off support linked to the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the entire upward wave, but the recent correction pattern continues to form lower lows and lower highs, suggesting it may not be complete yet. The scope of the previous major correction points to a possible downside extension toward the 75-cent region. Fundamental and Market Context Global cotton production for the 2026-2027 season was lowered in the latest USDA report by over 300,000 bales to 117.32 million bales, compared to 117.63 million bales projected a month earlier. The reduction in global harvest stems directly from smaller crops in the United States, Turkey, and Pakistan, partially offset by higher production forecasts for Brazil, the African Franc Zone (CFA), and Kazakhstan. Global cotton supplies for 2026-2027 were nudged higher to 192.62 million bales from 192.44 million bales recorded the previous month, owing to higher beginning stocks of 75.31 million bales. Global cotton consumption remains unchanged at 122.92 million bales, reflecting stable demand from major processing hubs. International cotton trade shows an upward trend, with global trade volume increased by around 400,000 bales to 44.22 million bales, driven by stronger exports from Brazil and the African Franc Zone. Import demand centers around Turkey, Indonesia, and Pakistan, where domestic requirement exceeds local production capacity. Brazil's export forecast was raised by 200,000 bales to 15.50 million bales, while estimates for its domestic production rose 250,000 bales to 18.50 million bales. Global ending stocks for the 2026-2027 season increased by about 170,000 bales to 69.86 million bales, leading to a slight tick up in the global stocks-to-use ratio to around 56.8 percent. China's production forecast for 2026-2027 remained unchanged at 33.50 million bales, with imports at 7 million bales and consumption around 42 million bales. The situation in India also remains stable, with production at 24 million bales, consumption at 26.50 million bales, and imports held at 3 million bales, while domestic ending stocks rose to 10.32 million bales. In Turkey, production forecasts were slashed by 300,000 bales to 2.40 million bales, forcing a 200,000-bale increase in import estimates to 5 million bales. Pakistan recorded a crop reduction of 100,000 bales to 5 million bales, pulling up imports by a corresponding amount to 5.10 million bales. The US cotton market is characterized by significant fundamental tightening, with the USDA cutting 2026-2027 US production by roughly 410,000 bales to 13.20 million bales, down nearly 3 percent. National average yields in the US were lowered by 22 pounds to 776 pounds per harvested acre, and harvested area decreased marginally to 8.16 million acres on planted area estimated at 10.45 million acres. Domestic mill use by US spinners dropped 100,000 bales to 1.50 million bales amid the ongoing contraction of the domestic textile manufacturing base, while exports were left unchanged at 12.30 million bales. US ending stocks for 2026-2027 were reduced by 10 percent to 3.60 million bales, severely limiting external supply from the US and supporting prices at origin. Cotton market demand in the current season is expected to be significantly larger than production, which is falling after 2 years of recovery. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Net positioning on cotton remained at an extremely high level. Both long and short positions are at extreme readings. Although fundamentals are shifting in favor of the bulls, a potential pullback in oil could lead to a significant liquidation of long positions, as seen in 2024. On the other hand, the current long position was built up over an extended period, and the move in net positioning to high levels was the result of short covering. Therefore, only a rebound in short positions could trigger a larger and deeper correction, similar to 2024. Source: CFTC, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) The 1-year Z-score for cotton currently stands at 1.19, the 2-year Z-score sits at 1.86, while the 5-year Z-score reaches -0.07. Analyzing 5-year Z-score dynamics over the last six months shows clear structural volatility: six months ago the indicator stood at -0.99, three months ago it dropped to -0.24, one month ago it rose to 0.21, and currently it has eased back slightly to stabilize around -0.07. This path points to a strong temporary surge in valuation last month, followed by market stabilization around multi-year medium-term equilibrium. The current near-zero reading suggests cotton valuation has reverted to its historical norm, dampening extreme price deviation risks, although solid supply fundamentals could soon push prices to retest higher valuation bands. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: This scenario assumes a reversal of the current downtrend supported by strong supply-side fundamentals stemming from lower global harvests and deep market oversold conditions confirmed by an RSI reading of 25. A prerequisite for this scenario is holding technical support around 82.00, a price bounce above the 50-day moving average, and fresh buying interest from Asian processors offsetting shrinking US inventories. Breaking resistance at 85.50 opens the way to a rapid move toward the 88.00 - 90.00 zone. Bearish Scenario: This scenario assumes continued bearish pressure stemming from a persistent negative MACD signal and declining US domestic textile activity. A necessary condition to enter this phase is a decisive breakdown below key technical support at 82.00, negating support signals and triggering long liquidation by financial investors. A deepening sell-off in this scenario would send cotton prices down toward the psychological 78.00 - 76.50 region. Cocoa Cocoa quotes are oscillating around 5304.0 points, recording a weekly drop of 9.35%, a monthly decline of 11.72%, and a deep annual correction of 24.21%, while year-to-date (YTD) performance stands at -9.93%. The RSI indicator sits at an extremely oversold level of 13, drastically increasing the likelihood of a strong technical rebound, even as the simple moving average (SMA) generates a bullish signal and the MACD indicator stays in a bearish trend. The current price is 8.41% below the 50-period moving average (SMA50), with neutral market sentiment. The price is breaking below an ascending trendline that served as the neckline of a local Head and Shoulders pattern targeting near 4800 USD per ton. Support at the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement remains key, coinciding with April highs and a local trough from November 2025. Fundamental and Market Context The current situation in the cocoa market remains under heavy supply pressure, reflected by double-digit price drops on a monthly basis. Market participant sentiment is characterized as neutral, even though technical indicators signal deep oversold conditions. Global supply and demand dynamics undergo continuous shifts influenced by agrometeorological conditions in key growing regions. The term structure of the cocoa forward curve points to mixed investor expectations over short- versus long-term horizons. Trading liquidity on futures exchanges remains stable, although hedge funds are adjusting exposure to prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Margin pressures on chocolate manufacturers constrain aggressive spot purchasing activity on physical markets. Seasonal harvest patterns in West Africa are being scrutinized by analysts for potential output volume revisions. Expectations around future supply balances shape long-term futures valuations for the commodity. Speculative activity in futures contracts amplifies short-term price swings, pushing quotes toward key support levels. The regulator in Ivory Coast reported that 2.06 million tons of beans were harvested from June 2025 to June 2026, compared to 1.58 million tons a year earlier. The decision to move the start of the marketing year to September 1 to sell larger amounts of cocoa indicates that oversupply, rather than potential production issues, remains the key market concern. Bloomberg continues to analyze the season starting October 1; however, based on Ivory Coast data, port arrivals during September 1–13, 2026 compared to October 1–12, 2025 showed almost 46% lower deliveries. On the other hand, Monday's price rebound was linked to drought concerns, which could lead to harvesting issues as the main crop officially kicks off in early October. Exchange inventories continue to rise, reaching 3.4 million bags, the highest level in 2 years. Cocoa is entering a slightly deeper contango on the short end of the curve than a month ago. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB We can see that there is no pressure from buyers in the market, while the selling side remains stable for now. Source: CFTC, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) The 1-year Z-score reading for cocoa stands at Z1Y +0.31, the 2-year Z2Y at -0.68, while the 5-year Z-score (Z5Y) settles at +0.06. Analyzing 5-year Z-score dynamics over the last six months, six months ago it stood at -0.56, three months ago it dropped to -0.27, one month ago it bounced to +0.31, and currently it has stabilized at +0.06. This path points to a temporary cooling of excessive valuations and a return toward the historical mean, lowering structural overvaluation risks and suggesting the market is seeking new fundamental equilibrium after earlier extreme swings. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: A necessary condition for the bullish scenario to materialize is holding strong technical support stemming from an extremely low RSI level and diminishing sell pressure from short funds. For an upward move to gain momentum, cocoa prices must firmly return above the 50-period moving average SMA50, aided by a revival in physical demand from processors and positive supply-demand balance revisions in upcoming industry reports. Fulfilling these conditions will open the path to a dynamic move back toward resistance at 5850.0 USD, and over a longer horizon a test of the 6200.0 USD area. Bearish Scenario: The bearish scenario will materialize if current negative MACD signals dominate the market and bears take full control following a breach of key technical barriers. A condition for a deeper sell-off is keeping prices below the 50-period moving average with a lack of buying response at current oversold RSI levels, which could be encouraged by weaker macroeconomic data indicating constrained consumer demand for chocolate products. In such an environment, cocoa quotes could extend losses toward the support zone at 4950.0 USD, with potential to test deeper lows around 4600.0 USD.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Markets – US500 at Record High

Wall Street indices hit new record highs. What’s next for S&P 500?U.S. index futures are coming off their strongest session in several months, which pushed the S&P 500 futures contract ( US500 ) to fresh all-time highs. The move was driven largely by falling oil prices. Investors’ attention is now gradually shifting toward the next earnings season, which begins in around three weeks and for which analysts remain highly optimistic. Saudi crude loadings from ports on the Persian Gulf rose sharply over the weekend, while the number of vessels at the country’s main export port climbed to its highest level since June. Fresh developments in the AI sector are reinforcing expectations for continued investment and stronger semiconductor demand. The MSCI All Country World Index is rising for a fourth consecutive session, reaching its highest level in two weeks. Samsung and SK Hynix shares extended gains in Asia, while sentiment was additionally supported by news of Alibaba’s new AI chip, designed to compete with Nvidia’s solutions, as well as the launch of Tencent’s latest image-generation model. Brent crude is attempting to snap a four-session losing streak, however. The OIL contract is up more than 1% today and has moved back above $100 per barrel. S&P 500 earnings outlook remains strong for Q3 Expectations for S&P 500 earnings have improved noticeably over the course of the third quarter. Consensus currently points to year-over-year earnings growth of 28.9%, up from 26.7% expected at the end of June. If the estimate is confirmed, this would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 25% and the eighth straight quarter of double-digit growth. Wall Street is expecting a very strong earnings season, which, if results exceed expectations, could become an important driver of further gains. One particularly notable development is that analysts have raised earnings estimates by 1.6% during the quarter, whereas historically estimates tend to be revised lower over this period. Over the past five years, earnings expectations have declined by an average of around 2.2% during the quarter, while the average decline over the past decade has been around 2.5%. At the same time, 72 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance for Q3, compared with 43 companies issuing negative guidance, also representing a strong reading relative to historical averages. Earnings growth is expected across all 11 sectors of the index, with five projected to post double-digit growth. Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services and Materials are expected to lead the way. Revenue forecasts have also been revised higher: the market now expects year-over-year revenue growth of 11.9%, compared with 10.9% at the end of June. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio stands at around 19.1, slightly below its five-year average of 19.8 and roughly in line with its 10-year average. US500 chart (D1 interval) The S&P 500 futures chart continues to favor buyers, with the index forming a sequence of higher lows and trading near 7,830 points, around the level of the previous peak from June 17. If the breakout continues, the contract could move toward the first major psychological resistance level at 8,000 points. In a bearish scenario, however, an unfavorable technical “double top” formation could begin to emerge. An important support zone appears to be around 7,500–7,600 points, where previous price reactions and the EMA50 moving average (orange line) are located. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Talking Nasdaq – Is it Overvalued?

One word keeps coming up in connection with the Nasdaq: “expensive.” And it’s hardly surprising, because when you look at the trailing price-to-earnings ratio, which is nearing 31, and add to that the price-to-sales ratio and EV/EBITDA, the picture does indeed look challenging. The problem is that the market isn’t always valued through the lens of the past. There are many dogmas in the financial market, and one of them is the view that an investor buying stocks today is paying not for the earnings that companies have already generated, but for those they are expected to generate in the future. And when we translate the valuation into earnings forecasts for the next twelve months, the narrative of an extremely overheated market begins to crumble somewhat. Forward P/E: Another Benchmark The key factor here is the Nasdaq 100’s forward P/E ratio, which currently stands at 23.2. This figure not only deviates significantly from the trailing 31, but more importantly, it is below its 126-session average of 24.0. In other words, relative to its own history over the past six months, the index is trading at a “fair” price—or even slightly below average—rather than at an extreme. The standard deviation bands illustrate this well, as the upper limit of plus two standard deviations is only at 26.7, and plus one is at 25.3. The current level of 23.2 thus falls closer to the lower half of the band, between the average and the minus-one standard deviation level at 22.6. This is not a market that has broken free from the gravitational pull of valuations. It is a market that remains within its statistical corridor, driven by the historical momentum of profit generation by U.S. companies. It’s worth noting the trends from recent quarters. In the spring of 2026, the forward P/E soared toward the upper band, brushing against plus two standard deviations, and that was the moment of genuine overheating. Since then, the ratio has cooled off and returned to around the average, even though the index itself remains near its highs. This situation—where the price is rising while the valuation ratio is stagnating or falling—means only one thing: the denominator, i.e., expected earnings, is catching up to the numerator. Profits That Drive the Price Here, from a slightly broader perspective, we’ll take a look at the S&P 500 index. A comparison of the index with projected earnings per share shows that forward EPS for U.S. companies is growing at a rate of 36 percent year-over-year. This is an extremely high figure, comparable to post-recession rebounds—except that this time, it’s happening without a recession in the background. The market today is not paying exorbitant prices for stagnant businesses, but is raising valuations in line with genuinely rising earnings expectations, driven largely by the investment cycle surrounding artificial intelligence. As long as this earnings momentum persists, high nominal multiples are at least partially justified. The risk only materializes when forecasts begin to be revised downward, because then today’s “reasonable” forward P/E will instantly become expensive, even without any price movement. The Shadow in the Painting, or the Breadth of the Market However, I would be dishonest if I were to focus solely on the optimistic side of the equation. The biggest cloud on this picture remains market breadth. The percentage of Nasdaq 100 companies trading above their 50-session moving average has fallen to just 40% and, importantly, is in the lower range of its historical distribution, as indicated by the green color of the indicator. This signals that the index’s strength is being driven by a narrow group of leaders, while the average company is performing significantly worse than the index level at its peaks would suggest. Such a divergence is not yet a sell signal, but it is a classic warning that the foundation of the rally is narrower than it appears at first glance. Additional context is provided by the index’s deviation from the 200-session exponential moving average, which currently stands at 10.8% and is in the upper, “hot” range of the distribution. This is not an extreme level like the one seen at the spring peak, but it is sufficient to justify a potential technical pullback or short-term correction.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

UK borrowing is above target, again, as Brent gets back above $100

Key takeaways Government’s fiscal dreams not yet reality The case against tax rises in next month’s budget Debt as a % of GDP is down, as economic growth picks up Pound remains stable after debt figures Oil prices back above $100 The future of the AI trade remains strong The UK’s public finance data for August made for more grim reading on the state of the UK’s public finances. The UK borrowed £18.3bn last month, up nearly 20% compared to a year ago, partly due to the impact of inflation. Borrowing in the financial year to August remains £8.1bn above the official government forecast for another month, which suggests that borrowing forecasts will need to be revised higher in next month’s Budget. Government’s fiscal dreams not yet reality The higher borrowing figure for August compared to a year ago came even though self-assessed income tax receipts were £1.9bn higher than 2025. Borrowing to fund day-to-day activities was £12.4bn in August, which is also above OBR forecasts, and suggests that the UK government’s aim to stop borrowing to fund everyday expenses is still some way off. The case against tax rises in next month’s budget There will be a lot of speculation from this data about next month’s Budget. Some will argue that it supports tax rises. However, tax take is increasing rapidly in the UK, which suggests that the UK’s borrowing is down to a spending problem, and if Healey raises taxes in next month’s budget instead of cutting spending, then the public finances will remain weak, and the debt interest bill will continue to rise. Debt as a % of GDP is down, as economic growth picks up However, although we are borrowing at a rapid rate, public sector net debt has grown by £78.5bn in a year, debt as a percentage of GDP was 93.8%, 1.3% lower than a year ago. This is a positive sign that our UK economy is growing at one of the fastest rates in the G7, which is having a mildly flattering effect on our debt position, it cannot be denied that our debt burden is punishing. The government had to spend £8.8bn on debt interest last month, the highest figure for August since records began. Pound remains stable after debt figures The higher August borrowing did not dent demand for the pound, which is up a notch on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading in a tight range at $1.3370, and overall FX movements have been mild in recent days. The mild reaction to the UK public finance data suggests it will take a bigger catalyst to move the pound, which has been fairly resilient in the face of bon market volatility. UK Gilts staged a strong recovery on Tuesday, the 2-year yield fell 7bps and the 10-year dropped 8bps. A combination of the relentless rise in UK borrowing along with the pick up in the oil price could reverse some of this move later today. Oil prices back above $100 The strong start to the week for risk assets is set to face a mini speedbump on Tuesday as the price of oil is higher by 1.5%, and Brent crude oil is back above $100 per barrel. The driver of the higher oil price may be down to reports that the Houthis are extending gains in Yemen to control the Red Sea. This is neutralizing some of the good news that Saudi Arabia is ramping up its Gulf oil exports, after the attacks on its East-West pipeline. Tech trade bounces back, with Meta leading the charge European stocks are set for a higher open later this morning, and US equity futures are mostly flat after a strong performance for the AI trade on Monday. Investor enthusiasm for AI was strong on Monday after Meta’s AI agent, Muse, surged to the top of Apple’s free app download rankings. This suggests that demand for costly AI tools is robust and worth the hundreds of billions of capex spent by the hyperscalers. The future of the AI trade remains strong If there is widespread adoption of Muse, it could add to demand for other AI tools, which could lift the AI sector, after a rough few months. Large cap growth stocks were the top performers on Monday, rising more than 2%, and Meta’s stock surged 11% on this news, and is extending gains in the pre-market on Tuesday, where it is currently higher by 0.5%. Intel, Meta, AMD, Super Micro and Marvell Technology, were also the top performers on Monday, as the success of Meta’s AI agent sparked a rush into AI software stocks. If: http://stocks.if AI products are popular then the hyperscalers will need even more compute capability to continue building them and expanding their capacity, which will accel;erate demand for chips and memory. This development could sustain the AI trade for the rest of this year, and help equities to continue to show resilience in the face of rising energy prices.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Chart of the Day: Record session for US100 behind us

Record session, although the record requires comment Monday's session on Nasdaq 100 futures brought massive gains, the largest in a long time, with the US100 logging its best day since early August. Futures closed at new historical highs around the 30,820 point level, although it is worth adding a small asterisk right away. This new record on futures contracts is largely the result of the recent contract rollover after September 16, which raised the reference level. The cash index has not yet established a new peak, as its all-time closing high stands at 30,660.60 from June 2, and intraday at 30,762.20 from June 3, 2026, while on Monday it traded around 30,482. In other words, futures formally hit a record, but the cash market is still chasing its June highs and has not yet set a new intraday peak. What fueled demand Fueling the rally was a mix of geopolitics and artificial intelligence euphoria. The market reacted to reports that Donald Trump might meet with Iran's president on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, reinforcing hopes for unblocking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The result was a sharp sell-off in oil, with Brent crude briefly dropping below $100 per barrel, which in turn dragged down US bond yields, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.96 percent. Cheaper oil and lower yields represent a classic environment favoring growth and tech stocks. Stock volatility during the last session The session showcased extreme volatility across the semiconductor and megacap sectors. Leading the gainers was Arm Holdings, soaring nearly 17 percent, closely followed by Intel with a gain of over 12 percent. The real star, however, was AMD, which gained about 10 percent and crossed a trillion-dollar valuation for the first time in history. Additionally, Meta Platforms surged 11.4 percent, adding nearly $200 billion in market capitalization in response to optimism surrounding its AI ambitions and the Muse assistant. For Meta, this was the best day since the tariff turmoil of April 2025. Warner Bros Discovery and Astera Labs also performed strongly, each gaining over 8 percent. On the other side of the table were defensive and industrial stocks, such as CSX and O'Reilly, confirming a pure sector rotation toward risk assets. Fundamentals and market breadth From a fundamental perspective, the Nasdaq 100 remains an expensive index, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.9 and a price-to-sales ratio of 6.8, with an EV/EBITDA of 24.1. These demanding valuations are justified only by the earnings momentum of AI companies. The index itself has had a very strong year, with a YTD return of 20.7 percent and 24.6 percent on an annual basis, while the drawdown from its historical high is a mere 0.6 percent. A crucial nuance, however, lies in market breadth. Despite the index hovering near record highs, only 39 percent of member stocks are trading above their 50-session moving average, and 56 percent above their 200-session moving average. This signals that the bull market is driven by a narrow group of tech giants and chipmakers rather than the broader market. Such concentration boosts index value while simultaneously leaving it vulnerable to potential stumbles by a few key companies. Technical analysis On the daily US100 chart, Monday's candle formed a powerful, wide breakout that propelled prices to new highs around 30,820. The market is currently testing round-number resistance and the 100 percent Fibonacci extension level at 30,927; a sustained breakout above this area would open the path toward subsequent Fibonacci targets, namely the 161.8 percent extension at 33,219. The overall structure remains decisively bullish, with the momentum supported by an ascending trendline drawn from the March 2026 low. However, it is worth noting that a pullback from current levels could potentially open the door to a double or even triple top formation, although the inverse head and shoulders (iH&S) breakout scenario is currently playing out. Following the neckline breakout, initial support lies around 30,133 (the 78.6 percent retracement level), while a deeper correction would pull focus toward the 29,510 zone and the moving averages. As long as prices hold above 30,133 and the aforementioned trendline, buyers retain technical control. Nevertheless, after such a strong candle, a brief pause would be natural, and the real test of buyers' strength will be the cash market's ability to close decisively above the June high of 30,762.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

 XAG/USD holds losses near $66.00 amid Fed rate hike bets

Silver declines as hawkish Fed remarks reinforce expectations for further interest rate hikes, driving non-yielding asset prices lower. Fed's Musalem warns inflation could stay above 2% without earlier, incremental rate increases. Falling oil prices and Middle East diplomatic efforts could offer support for Silver. Silver price (XAG/USD) inches lower after opening at a bullish gap, trading around $66.00 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. Non-yielding Silver remains under pressure as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have reinforced expectations for additional US interest rate hikes. Musalem flags need for earlier, incremental hikes as inflation risks stay elevated The Fed's Musalem delivers a distinctly hawkish tone, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10, stronger relative to the historical average of 7.4/10. Musalem warns that without further policy restraint, inflation is likely to remain substantially above the 2% target over the next 18 months, arguing that interest rates need to rise further to tackle demand- and supply-driven price pressures, including broader commodity shocks beyond oil such as copper. Despite describing the labor market as stable around full employment and not a key source of inflation, Musalem highlights that underlying inflation remains too high at up to 3%, with business contacts planning price increases closer to 3%, reinforcing a bias toward earlier and incremental rate hikes. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rises by 0.42 points to 149.96, signaling a solid reinforcement of hawkish expectations in line with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. At this level, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index remains deeply in hawkish territory, underscoring market anticipation of additional tightening to contain persistent inflation risks for the Dollar. Goolsbee flags overheating risks as supply shocks cloud Fed’s path to 2% Fed’s Goolsbee delivered a more forceful inflation message, with a 7.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing notably above the 6.4/10 historical average, underscoring heightened policy sensitivity to upside price risks. The emphasis on being “optimistic” about returning to 2% inflation only if there is no further evidence of demand overheating, combined with a clear warning of “no ambiguity” about the Fed’s response to excess demand, tilts the tone moderately hawkish despite ongoing uncertainty over the split between supply shocks and demand-driven inflation. Goolsbee’s insistence that persistent supply shocks must be explicitly incorporated into policy and that fading supply-side inflation is needed for a “credible path” back to 2% suggests the Fed is wary of easing prematurely, a backdrop that is broadly supportive of the Dollar on balance. However, the white metal could find some support from declining oil prices, driven by expanding diplomatic initiatives to resolve the Middle East conflict and indications of uninterrupted energy supplies from the region. Crude oil itself faces potential downside risk as supply concerns ease alongside accelerating diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the US-Iran war. Geopolitical developments are taking center stage as US President Donald Trump addresses the UN General Assembly in New York, with a potential side meeting scheduled with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Throughout the week, President Trump is also expected to conduct high-level talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and leaders from various Gulf nations. Adding to the diplomatic push, the Trump administration has proposed a $5 billion fund dedicated to reconstructing Middle Eastern infrastructure damaged during the conflict. Technical Analysis: In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.11. The pair holds above both the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $65.37 and the 50-day EMA at $64.92, keeping a constructive bullish bias while price consolidates near recent highs. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 53.37 stays in neutral territory with a slight positive tilt, suggesting that upward pressure is intact but not overstretched, while the elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 149.96 hints that broader policy expectations remain supportive for silver. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $66.11 area, followed by the short-term 9-day EMA at $65.37 and then the medium-term 50-day EMA at $64.92, forming a layered demand zone beneath spot. With no clear resistance levels derived from the current indicator set, further gains would likely depend on how price reacts to this support stack, as a sustained break below the 50-day EMA would start to weaken the bullish near-term structure.

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Energies

September 22, 2026

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Bulls Target $93 as Geopolitical Risk Supports Oil Above Key Fibonacci Levels

WTI crude oil prices recovered toward $93.00 per barrel on Tuesday after falling for four consecutive sessions and briefly slipping below $91.00, marking the lowest level in almost two weeks. The rebound reflects renewed buying interest as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide support to the oil market. The latest recovery comes as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that it could expand the geographical scope of the conflict if the United States escalates its involvement. The threat keeps a significant geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices and provides a fundamental tailwind for WTI. However, improving energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and growing expectations of potential US-Iran discussions at the United Nations General Assembly could limit the upside. Traders are therefore balancing renewed geopolitical risks against the possibility of improved regional stability and energy flows. Technically, WTI retains a bullish structure while prices remain above the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $90.96 and the 100-day SMA at $85.05. The latest decline therefore continues to look more like a correction within a broader recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal. WTI Crude Oil Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationWTI PriceJust below $93.00Daily MoveAround +1.40%Recent LowBelow $91.00Short-Term BiasBullish recoveryKey Fibonacci Support$90.96Secondary Fibonacci Support$87.61Major Fibonacci Support$84.27100-Day SMA$85.05Immediate Resistance$95.10Major Resistance$101.79RSIAround 54MACDBelow signal lineMain Fundamental DriverMiddle East geopolitical risk WTI Price Today: Crude Rebounds Toward $93 WTI gained around 1.40% during Tuesday's Asian session, snapping a four-session losing streak that had taken prices below $91.00. The recovery suggests that buyers remain willing to defend the broader bullish structure, particularly as geopolitical developments continue to create uncertainty around Middle Eastern energy supplies. The immediate test is whether WTI can reclaim and sustain prices around $93.00. A stronger recovery above this level would bring the next technical resistance areas into focus. Middle East Tensions Keep the Oil Risk Premium Alive Geopolitical risk remains one of the principal supports for crude oil. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the geography of the conflict could change if the United States escalates its involvement. Such warnings increase uncertainty surrounding regional energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Oil markets typically respond quickly to the possibility of supply disruption because even a relatively small interruption can have a significant impact on global inventories and prices. As a result, geopolitical developments remain capable of producing sharp upside moves in WTI even after recent profit-taking. Strait of Hormuz Flows Limit the Upside While geopolitical risks remain elevated, improving shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are providing an important counterweight. The Strait is a critical global energy corridor, meaning continued movement of oil and other energy products through the waterway can reduce immediate concerns about physical supply shortages. If flows continue improving and diplomatic efforts gain traction, some of the geopolitical premium currently incorporated into crude prices could unwind. This creates a key tension for WTI: escalating geopolitical risk supports prices, while improving physical flows and diplomacy could cap gains. US-Iran Diplomacy Becomes a Key Market Catalyst Markets are closely monitoring the possibility of US-Iran talks during the United Nations General Assembly. Any meaningful progress toward negotiations could reduce fears of a wider conflict and put downward pressure on the geopolitical premium embedded in crude. Conversely, a deterioration in diplomatic relations or further escalation could quickly increase concerns over supply routes and energy infrastructure. For oil traders, diplomatic headlines could therefore become as important as traditional supply-and-demand data over the coming sessions. WTI Technical Analysis: $90.96 Fibonacci Support Holds The technical structure remains constructive despite the recent four-session decline. WTI continues to trade above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $90.96 and the 100-day SMA at $85.05. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $84.27 also forms part of the broader structural support zone. Momentum has moderated, however. The 14-day RSI is around 54, which indicates a relatively neutral-to-positive momentum environment rather than an overbought market. Meanwhile, the MACD has slipped below its signal line and turned negative on the histogram, reflecting the recent correction. The combination suggests that short-term momentum has weakened but has not yet invalidated the broader bullish technical structure. WTI Support Levels The first major downside level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $90.96. A decisive break below this level could expose the 50.0% retracement at $87.61, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $84.27. The 100-day SMA at $85.05 sits close to this deeper support region and could provide an additional layer of demand. Below the 100-day average, further Fibonacci anchors are located at $79.51 and $73.44. WTI Resistance Levels On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $95.10. A sustained break above $95.10 could expose the cycle-high region around $101.79. The $101.79 area is particularly important because traders could begin taking profits if WTI returns toward the recent cycle highs. Bullish Sentiment 1. Geopolitical Risk Supports Crude Continued tensions involving Iran and the United States are keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. 2. WTI Holds Above $90.96 The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $90.96 remains an important technical defence level. Holding above it preserves the broader bullish structure. 3. WTI Remains Above the 100-Day SMA Prices remain comfortably above the 100-day SMA at $85.05, reinforcing the longer-term constructive technical structure. 4. Potential Supply Disruption Risks Any deterioration in the Middle East conflict could threaten regional energy flows and rapidly increase the value of the geopolitical premium. 5. Break Above $95.10 Could Accelerate the Recovery A sustained move above $95.10 would strengthen the bullish technical setup and put the $101.79 cycle-high region back into focus. Bearish Sentiment 1. Improving Strait of Hormuz Shipments Continued energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce immediate supply concerns and limit geopolitical risk premiums. 2. US-Iran Talks Could Reduce Risk Premium Successful diplomatic discussions could encourage traders to remove some of the premium currently associated with the Middle East conflict. 3. MACD Momentum Has Turned Negative The MACD has moved below its signal line and the histogram has turned negative, highlighting weakening short-term momentum. 4. Break Below $90.96 Would Weaken the Bullish Structure A decisive move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $90.96 would expose deeper support at $87.61 and $84.27. 5. Profit-Taking Near $101.79 If WTI returns toward the cycle high around $101.79, traders could begin locking in gains, potentially limiting additional upside. WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate WTI outlook is centred on whether buyers can reclaim $93.00 and subsequently challenge the $95.10 Fibonacci resistance. A sustained break above $95.10 would strengthen the recovery and could put the $101.79 cycle high back into focus. On the downside, $90.96 is the critical near-term support level. A decisive break below it would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward $87.61, with $84.27 and the 100-day SMA at $85.05 forming a broader structural support area. The fundamental picture remains closely tied to developments in the Middle East, particularly the balance between geopolitical escalation and diplomatic progress. WTI Crude Oil Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains highly dependent on regional developments. Continued energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are currently helping to prevent the market from pricing an immediate severe supply disruption. However, the possibility of further escalation means that traders remain sensitive to any threat involving regional production, transportation infrastructure or shipping routes. The oil market is therefore likely to retain a substantial geopolitical component even if physical supply remains available. WTI Crude Oil Demand Outlook Demand expectations will remain linked to the broader global economic outlook. A deterioration in global growth could reduce fuel consumption expectations and create a counterweight to geopolitical supply risks. Conversely, resilient economic activity would provide a stronger underlying demand environment, particularly if geopolitical risks simultaneously restrict available supply. The interaction between physical demand and geopolitical supply risk will therefore remain central to WTI's medium-term direction. WTI Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions WTI has regained momentum after defending the $90.96 Fibonacci support, but the recovery still faces significant resistance above the market. The first major upside test is $95.10, followed by the $101.79 cycle-high region. On the downside, a failure to hold $90.96 would shift attention toward $87.61, $84.27 and the 100-day SMA at $85.05. Fundamentally, the market remains caught between two opposing forces: geopolitical escalation supporting crude prices and improving energy flows plus diplomatic efforts limiting the upside. This combination could produce elevated volatility, with geopolitical headlines capable of rapidly changing the balance between bullish and bearish forces. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors crude oil because movements in energy prices can have significant implications for inflation, interest-rate expectations, trade balances and major currency pairs. For businesses exposed to international energy costs or cross-border currency movements, sharp changes in crude prices can alter both operating costs and foreign-exchange requirements. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping clients manage international currency requirements and navigate changing foreign-exchange conditions. Today Markets View WTI crude oil has recovered toward $93.00 after defending the critical $90.96 Fibonacci support, keeping the broader technical structure constructive. The immediate upside target is $95.10, with a sustained break potentially opening the way toward the $101.79 cycle high. However, the market remains highly sensitive to Middle East developments. Improving energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for US-Iran talks could limit the geopolitical premium, while any escalation could rapidly strengthen crude prices. For traders, the key technical battle remains $90.96 support versus $95.10 resistance, with the outcome likely to determine whether the current recovery develops into another leg higher or gives way to a deeper correction. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Disclaimer: This market analysis is provided for informational purposes only by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Markets can move rapidly and investors should consider their own circumstances, objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decision.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Falls Toward $4,350 as Hawkish Fed Comments Lift Rate Hike Expectations

Gold prices traded near $4,350 an ounce on Tuesday, extending the previous session's decline as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer or potentially rise further. Higher interest-rate expectations are weighing on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset while also supporting the US dollar. The latest pressure follows comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. Goolsbee indicated that the Federal Reserve must take persistent supply shocks into account when assessing inflation, while Musalem said additional rate increases may be required to bring inflation back toward the central bank's target. At the same time, gold continues to receive support from longer-term structural factors. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, continued central-bank purchases, concerns surrounding fiscal sustainability and expectations of currency debasement remain important underlying drivers for precious metals. Gold Market Snapshot Market FactorCurrent SituationGold PriceAround $4,350/ozShort-Term DirectionBearish / Under PressureMain PressureHawkish Federal Reserve expectationsUS Interest RatesExpectations for further increases strengthenedUS DollarSupported by higher-rate expectationsOil PricesFalling, providing some relief to inflation concernsGeopolitical RiskRemains elevated despite diplomatic effortsCentral Bank DemandContinues to provide longer-term supportKey OutlookFed policy versus structural safe-haven demand Gold Prices Today: Hawkish Fed Comments Pressure Precious Metals Gold extended its decline on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials delivered signals that inflation remains sufficiently persistent to justify keeping monetary policy restrictive. The comments are important because gold does not generate interest income. When Treasury yields and expectations for US interest rates rise, investors have greater incentives to allocate capital toward interest-bearing assets rather than precious metals. This dynamic has created a near-term headwind for gold even though the broader fundamental backdrop remains supportive. Federal Reserve Rate Expectations Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Federal Reserve needs to account for persistent supply shocks when assessing the inflation outlook. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem meanwhile indicated that additional rate increases could be necessary to move inflation toward the Fed's target. Together, the comments reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer than previously anticipated. For gold, this creates a direct short-term challenge. A higher-for-longer US interest-rate environment can lift Treasury yields and the dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. The market will therefore remain highly sensitive to further Federal Reserve commentary and incoming inflation and economic data. Falling Oil Prices Offer Some Support Lower oil prices are providing a partial counterweight to the pressure created by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Crude oil prices have fallen amid increased diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict and signs that energy flows from the region are continuing. Lower energy prices could eventually reduce inflationary pressure, which could alter the Federal Reserve's policy outlook if the decline becomes sustained. However, the immediate impact on gold is more complicated. Falling oil prices reduce inflation concerns, but they can also lower expectations for aggressive monetary tightening. This creates two opposing forces for precious metals. Middle East Geopolitical Risk Geopolitical uncertainty remains an important underlying source of support for gold. President Trump is due to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York, while a potential meeting with Iranian President Pezeshkian on the sidelines could increase attention on diplomatic efforts surrounding the Middle East conflict. Any meaningful improvement in diplomatic conditions could reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets in the short term. However, geopolitical risk has not disappeared. Investors continue to monitor developments across the region, particularly the potential impact on energy markets, global trade and financial-market risk appetite. Central Bank Gold Buying One of the strongest longer-term supports for gold remains continued central-bank demand. Central banks have increasingly sought to diversify reserves and reduce reliance on individual currencies and sovereign assets. This provides an important structural source of demand that is less dependent on short-term speculative positioning. As a result, periods of price weakness can continue to attract strategic buying even when higher US yields create temporary pressure. Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Debasement Gold is also benefiting from longer-term concerns surrounding government finances and the sustainability of high public debt levels. Concerns over fiscal deficits can increase investor demand for assets that are not directly tied to the creditworthiness of a particular government. At the same time, expectations of currency debasement can encourage investors and central banks to maintain exposure to physical gold as a store of value. These factors are unlikely to disappear because of short-term changes in Federal Reserve expectations, meaning the longer-term investment case for gold remains different from its immediate interest-rate-driven price dynamics. Bullish Sentiment 1. Continued Central Bank Buying Persistent central-bank demand provides a structural source of support for gold and can help absorb periods of investor selling. 2. Geopolitical Uncertainty The Middle East remains a significant geopolitical risk, while uncertainty surrounding international relations can sustain demand for safe-haven assets. 3. Fiscal Sustainability Concerns High government debt and fiscal deficits continue to support demand for assets viewed as stores of value outside the traditional financial system. 4. Currency Debasement Risks Concerns over long-term currency purchasing power can encourage institutional and central-bank demand for gold. 5. Falling Oil Prices Could Eventually Ease Rate Pressure If lower energy prices translate into sustained reductions in inflation, expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening could weaken, potentially improving the environment for gold. Bearish Sentiment 1. Hawkish Federal Reserve Commentary Comments from Goolsbee and Musalem have reinforced expectations that additional rate increases could remain on the table. 2. Higher Interest-Rate Expectations Higher expected US rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. 3. Dollar Support A more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook can strengthen the US dollar, creating additional pressure on dollar-denominated gold prices. 4. Improving Middle East Diplomacy Further progress toward a diplomatic resolution could reduce safe-haven demand and encourage capital to move toward risk-sensitive assets. 5. Continued Energy Flows Signs that energy supplies from the Middle East remain operational have reduced some of the immediate supply-disruption fears that previously supported precious metals. Gold Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Gold's immediate outlook is being determined by the confrontation between hawkish US monetary policy expectations and powerful longer-term structural demand. A sustained move lower would require the market to increasingly price a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy while maintaining confidence that geopolitical risks are easing. Conversely, if inflation begins to moderate, oil prices remain subdued and expectations for additional rate increases fade, gold could regain support from lower real-rate expectations. The $4,350 area therefore remains an important reference point for assessing whether the current decline develops into a deeper correction or stabilises around current levels. Gold Supply Outlook Gold's supply dynamics remain relatively supportive over the longer term because mine production responds slowly to price changes. New mining projects require substantial capital investment, permitting and development time. This means that even significant changes in gold prices do not immediately translate into equivalent changes in physical supply. Recycling can provide additional supply when prices rise substantially, but strong investment and central-bank demand can absorb available metal. Gold Demand Outlook Demand remains diversified across investment, jewellery, technology and central-bank purchases. For financial markets, investment demand remains particularly important because shifts in ETF flows, futures positioning, real yields and the US dollar can produce substantial short-term price movements. Central-bank buying provides a separate structural demand component that can remain active even when speculative investors reduce exposure. Gold Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The next phase of the gold market will remain highly sensitive to Federal Reserve communication, US economic data and Treasury yields. The key short-term question is whether markets continue to price the possibility of additional US rate increases or begin to anticipate a softer monetary-policy path. At the same time, geopolitical developments will remain capable of producing sharp moves in either direction. A continuation of diplomatic progress could reduce safe-haven demand, while any renewed escalation could quickly restore demand for gold. The combination of $4,350 gold, changing Fed expectations, falling oil prices and persistent geopolitical and fiscal concerns leaves the market caught between significant short-term monetary-policy pressure and substantial longer-term structural support. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between gold, the US dollar, interest rates, inflation expectations and geopolitical developments as part of its broader macroeconomic and currency-market analysis. For businesses and individuals with international currency exposure, movements in the dollar can have a direct impact on the effective cost of gold and other dollar-denominated commodities. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping clients manage international currency requirements and navigate changing foreign-exchange conditions. Today Markets View Gold is currently under pressure near $4,350 an ounce, with hawkish Federal Reserve commentary strengthening expectations for potentially higher US interest rates and supporting the dollar. The immediate environment therefore remains challenging for gold, particularly while markets continue to reassess the path of US monetary policy. However, the broader outlook remains supported by central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal sustainability concerns and currency-debasement risks. For traders, the key balance in the coming sessions will be between the Federal Reserve's willingness to maintain restrictive policy and the longer-term demand for gold as a strategic reserve and safe-haven asset. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Disclaimer: This market analysis is provided for informational purposes only by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Markets can move rapidly and investors should consider their own circumstances, objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decision.

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Energies

September 22, 2026

Heating Oil Price Forecast: US Heating Oil Falls Below $4.90 as Supply Risks Persist Ahead of Winter

US heating oil prices fell below $4.90 per gallon, extending their retreat from the record high reached last week as improving energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed diplomatic efforts eased immediate concerns over global fuel supplies. The decline reflects a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed heating oil prices sharply higher. Satellite data indicated that Saudi oil loadings in the Persian Gulf surged, suggesting that exports were increasingly shifting back toward the Strait of Hormuz despite the continued shutdown of the East-West pipeline. Reports that the pipeline could partially restart within days have further reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to Saudi crude exports. However, the underlying supply picture remains tight. With winter approaching, seasonal heating demand could increase, while refinery maintenance may reduce production of distillates just as inventories remain well below historical norms. EIA data showed US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, were 13% below their five-year average in the week ending September 11. Meanwhile, Russian diesel export restrictions and Ukrainian strikes on major refineries are creating additional pressure on global distillate availability. Heating Oil Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalHeating oil priceBelow $4.90/galRecent price trendRetreating from record highStrait of Hormuz flowsImprovingSaudi oil loadingsSurgingEast-West pipelineShutdown, possible partial restartUS distillate inventories13% below 5-year averageWinter demandPotentially increasingRefinery maintenancePotential supply constraintRussian diesel exportsRestrictions extended through OctoberGlobal distillate supplyConstrained Heating Oil Prices Today: Prices Retreat From Record High Heating oil has moved lower as the immediate threat to physical energy flows has eased. Improving shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed diplomatic efforts have reduced concerns that crude and refined-product supplies could face a prolonged disruption. The possibility of a partial restart of the East-West pipeline has provided another bearish signal. Nevertheless, the market remains fundamentally vulnerable because inventories are already below normal seasonal levels. The decline in prices therefore does not necessarily indicate that the underlying supply situation has become comfortable. Strait of Hormuz Flows Improve The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the global energy market. Satellite data showing stronger Saudi oil loadings in the Persian Gulf suggests that exports are shifting back toward the Strait as operators respond to changing transportation conditions. Improving flows can reduce fears of an immediate shortage of crude feedstock for global refineries. However, the continued uncertainty surrounding regional transportation means the market remains sensitive to any renewed disruption. A deterioration in diplomatic conditions or renewed restrictions on shipping could quickly restore the geopolitical premium in heating oil. Saudi Oil Exports and East-West Pipeline Risks The continued shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been an important supply consideration. The pipeline provides an alternative route for moving Saudi crude toward the Red Sea, allowing some exports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that the line could partially restart within days have therefore helped ease concerns over prolonged export disruption. If the pipeline resumes meaningful operations, the additional transportation flexibility could reduce pressure on global crude and refined-product markets. However, until the restart is confirmed and flows normalise, some supply risk remains embedded in prices. US Distillate Inventories Remain Low One of the strongest underlying bullish factors for heating oil is the condition of US distillate inventories. According to EIA data, inventories of diesel, heating oil and other distillates were 13% below their five-year average during the week ending September 11. This leaves the market with a relatively limited supply cushion. Low inventories are particularly important heading into winter because heating demand can rise rapidly when temperatures fall. If refineries experience disruptions or maintenance reduces output during this period, the market could become significantly tighter. Winter Heating Demand Could Increase The seasonal demand outlook is becoming increasingly important. As temperatures fall across the northern hemisphere, households and businesses can increase consumption of heating fuels. If winter temperatures are colder than expected, heating oil demand could rise sharply. This creates a potential divergence between current price action and the underlying seasonal risk. Prices may continue falling if geopolitical supply concerns diminish, but stronger winter demand could subsequently tighten the physical market. Refinery Maintenance Creates Additional Risk Refinery maintenance represents another potential constraint on heating oil supply. Maintenance reduces refinery operating capacity and can limit the production of distillates such as diesel and heating oil. The timing is particularly important because maintenance occurring close to the beginning of the winter heating season can reduce inventories just as seasonal demand begins increasing. With stocks already below the five-year average, even temporary refinery disruptions could have an outsized impact on prices. Russia Extends Diesel Export Restrictions Russia's decision to extend diesel export restrictions through October represents another source of pressure on global distillate supplies. Restrictions on Russian exports can reduce the amount of diesel available to international buyers, forcing refiners and traders to source alternative supplies. This can tighten regional markets and increase competition for available distillate cargoes. For US heating oil, the impact is indirect but relevant because global distillate markets are interconnected. Ukrainian Strikes Disrupt Refinery Output Ukrainian strikes have also disrupted production at major Russian refineries. Reduced refinery output can further constrain diesel and heating-oil-related supplies, particularly if disruptions persist. The combination of Russian export restrictions and refinery outages therefore creates a potentially tighter global distillate environment even while US heating oil prices are retreating. Bullish Sentiment 1. US Distillate Inventories Are Low Inventories remain 13% below the five-year average, leaving the US market with a limited supply buffer. 2. Winter Demand Is Approaching Seasonal heating demand is likely to become increasingly important as temperatures decline. 3. Refinery Maintenance Scheduled maintenance could reduce distillate production at a time when inventories are already below normal. 4. Russian Diesel Restrictions Extended Russian diesel export restrictions could reduce global distillate availability and increase competition for alternative supplies. 5. Ukrainian Refinery Disruptions Damage and operational disruptions at major refineries can further reduce global diesel and distillate production. 6. Geopolitical Risk Remains Even though energy flows have improved, continued uncertainty around the Middle East means renewed disruption remains a potential source of upside volatility. Bearish Sentiment 1. Improving Strait of Hormuz Flows Increasing vessel and oil flows are reducing immediate fears of a severe energy shortage. 2. Saudi Oil Loadings Increase Higher Saudi loadings indicate that exports are recovering and that physical supply conditions are improving. 3. Potential East-West Pipeline Restart A partial restart of the pipeline could provide an additional export route and reduce pressure on global crude supplies. 4. Diplomatic Efforts Renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict are reducing the geopolitical risk premium. 5. Prices Are Retreating From Record Highs The move below $4.90 per gallon demonstrates that some of the extreme supply-risk premium has already been removed. Heating Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The near-term outlook for heating oil is being shaped by a conflict between improving geopolitical supply conditions and increasingly important seasonal fundamentals. Further improvement in energy flows could encourage additional downside as the risk premium continues to unwind. However, the market is approaching a period when heating demand traditionally becomes more important. With US distillate inventories already 13% below their five-year average, the market has limited room for unexpected supply disruptions. The key question is whether improving crude flows can offset the tightening influence of winter demand, refinery maintenance and constrained global distillate availability. Heating Oil Supply Outlook The immediate supply outlook has improved. Higher Saudi oil loadings, better Strait of Hormuz flows and the potential partial restart of the East-West pipeline all reduce the risk of a prolonged crude shortage. However, refined-product supply remains more complicated. Russian export restrictions, Ukrainian refinery disruptions and refinery maintenance could limit global distillate availability even if crude supply improves. This distinction is important: more crude availability does not automatically translate into abundant heating oil supply if refinery capacity remains constrained. Heating Oil Demand Outlook Demand is likely to become increasingly weather-sensitive as winter approaches. A mild winter could keep heating-oil consumption relatively contained and allow inventories to recover. A colder winter would increase demand and place additional pressure on already-low stocks. The interaction between weather and refinery availability will therefore be critical to the market's winter balance. Heating Oil Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Heating oil prices are likely to remain volatile as traders balance the recent improvement in physical energy flows against tightening seasonal fundamentals. Markets will be watching: Strait of Hormuz shipping flows Saudi crude exports East-West pipeline developments US distillate inventories US refinery utilisation and maintenance Winter weather forecasts Russian diesel export restrictions Ukrainian refinery disruptions Middle East diplomatic developments The recent retreat from the record high has reduced some immediate supply concerns, but the market is entering winter with inventories that remain significantly below historical averages. Currency Hedger View Heating oil and refined energy products are closely connected to international commodity markets, while their pricing can also be affected by movements in the US dollar. For businesses exposed to international energy purchases, transportation costs or cross-border payments, currency movements can add another layer of volatility to already-sensitive commodity costs. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and cross-border financial commitments. Currency Hedger Today Markets View US heating oil prices have retreated below $4.90 per gallon, moving further away from last week's record high as improving energy flows and renewed diplomatic efforts reduce immediate supply fears. The bullish case remains centred on tight US distillate inventories, approaching winter demand, refinery maintenance, Russian diesel restrictions and disruptions to Russian refining capacity. The bearish case is supported by improving Strait of Hormuz flows, stronger Saudi oil loadings, the potential restart of the East-West pipeline and reduced geopolitical risk. The key market question is whether the recent improvement in crude and shipping flows will be sufficient to offset the tightening impact of winter demand and already-low distillate inventories. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Octalas Group Ltd, on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger, provides market commentary and analysis for informational purposes only. This material does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Copper Price Forecast: Copper Extends Six-Session Rally Above $6.70 as Supply Disruptions Tighten the Market

Copper futures climbed above $6.70 per pound on Tuesday, extending the rally to a sixth consecutive session as growing concerns over global mine supply continued to support prices. The latest move higher comes despite copper already trading at historically elevated levels, with supply disruptions, declining ore grades and weak production from Chile adding to concerns that global mine output may struggle to keep pace with consumption. Sprott Asset Management estimates that global mined copper production could decline in 2026 for the first time since 2017. Global mine production was already 1.1% lower year over year during the first half of 2026, while disruptions at major operations in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo are estimated to have removed approximately 600,000 tonnes from expected annual production. At the same time, structural demand remains strong. Electricity-grid investment, artificial intelligence data centres and defence infrastructure are creating additional demand for copper, reinforcing the longer-term supply-demand argument. Markets are also monitoring potential US copper tariffs, with the Commerce Department proposing duties of 15% from January 2027 and 30% from 2028, subject to a presidential decision. The proposals introduce another source of uncertainty for global copper flows and regional pricing. Copper Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalCopper priceAbove $6.70/lbPrice trendSix consecutive sessions higherGlobal mine production, H1 2026-1.1% y/yEstimated disruption impact~600,000 tonnesChilean productionWeakPower-grid demandStrongAI data-centre demandStrongDefence demandStrongProposed US tariff, 202715%Proposed US tariff, 202830% Copper Prices Today: Sixth Straight Session of Gains Copper's move above $6.70 per pound marks another significant step higher after six consecutive sessions of gains. The immediate driver remains concern over supply rather than a sudden change in global economic demand. Markets are increasingly focused on whether mining companies can increase production sufficiently to meet consumption requirements as demand from electrification, data centres and infrastructure continues to expand. The latest production data suggests that supply is struggling to respond even while prices remain elevated. This creates an important market dynamic: higher prices are not necessarily producing an immediate supply response because mine development, expansion and grade improvements require substantial time and capital. Global Copper Mine Production Falls Global mined copper production declined 1.1% year over year during the first half of 2026, according to the information cited by Sprott Asset Management. A decline in global mine output would be particularly significant because copper demand continues to expand across multiple industries. Sprott expects global mined copper production could decline this year for the first time since 2017, despite record-high prices. This suggests the current supply constraints are increasingly structural rather than simply a temporary response to weaker commodity prices. Indonesia and Democratic Republic of Congo Disruptions Supply disruptions at major mines in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have further tightened the outlook. The disruptions are estimated to have removed approximately 600,000 tonnes from expected annual production. For a market already experiencing weaker mine output, the loss of hundreds of thousands of tonnes can materially alter the expected annual balance. Further operational problems, weather disruptions, labour issues or regulatory developments could therefore create additional upside pressure. Chilean Copper Output Remains Weak Weak Chilean production is another important concern for the global copper market. Chile remains one of the world's most important copper-producing countries, meaning sustained weakness from the country's mining sector can have a significant impact on global availability. Declining ore grades are also becoming a structural challenge. As existing deposits mature, miners must process increasing amounts of material to produce the same quantity of copper. This can increase costs and make production growth more difficult. AI Data Centres Increase Copper Demand Artificial intelligence infrastructure is becoming an increasingly important source of copper demand. AI data centres require substantial electricity infrastructure, including power generation, transmission equipment, transformers and electrical connections. Copper's electrical conductivity makes it particularly important to these systems. The rapid expansion of data-centre capacity therefore creates an additional source of demand at a time when global mine supply is struggling to expand. Power Grids and Electrification Support Demand Copper demand is also benefiting from investment in electricity grids. The expansion and modernisation of power networks requires large quantities of copper for cables, transformers and other electrical infrastructure. The broader electrification trend creates a long-term demand component that is less dependent on traditional construction or manufacturing cycles. This gives copper a structural demand story beyond short-term economic growth. Defence Demand Adds Another Demand Driver Defence investment is also supporting copper consumption. Modern defence systems require substantial electrical and electronic infrastructure, while increased investment in military production can raise demand for copper-intensive components. Combined with power-grid investment and AI infrastructure, this creates several independent demand drivers operating simultaneously. US Copper Tariffs Become a Major Market Risk US trade policy is becoming another important factor for copper markets. The Commerce Department has proposed tariffs of 15% from January 2027 and 30% from 2028, although the proposals remain subject to a presidential decision. Potential tariffs could alter the flow of copper into the US market and influence regional price premiums. They could also encourage changes in global trade patterns as producers and consumers adjust sourcing strategies. For traders, the issue is therefore not simply the level of the tariff but how the policy could reshape physical copper flows. Bullish Sentiment 1. Falling Global Mine Production Global mine production declined 1.1% year over year in the first half of 2026, strengthening concerns over physical supply. 2. Major Mine Disruptions Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo disruptions have removed an estimated 600,000 tonnes from expected annual production. 3. Weak Chilean Output Weak production and declining ore grades in Chile add another constraint to global supply growth. 4. AI Infrastructure Rapid investment in AI data centres is increasing demand for electricity infrastructure and copper-intensive equipment. 5. Power-Grid Investment Grid expansion and electrification provide a structural source of copper demand beyond the traditional economic cycle. 6. Defence Demand Higher defence investment provides another source of industrial copper consumption. Bearish Sentiment 1. Elevated Prices Copper trading above $6.70 per pound could eventually encourage demand substitution, efficiency improvements and additional supply investment. 2. US Tariff Risk Potential US tariffs could disrupt international copper trade and reduce demand within the US market if higher import costs affect consumption. 3. Demand Destruction Sustained high copper prices can eventually place pressure on manufacturers and other industrial consumers, potentially reducing discretionary demand. 4. Future Mine Investment Persistently high prices could incentivise miners to expand existing operations, develop new projects and invest in technologies that increase recovery rates. 5. Economic Growth Risk Although structural demand remains strong, a significant slowdown in global industrial activity could weaken copper consumption and offset some of the supply-side pressure. Copper Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Copper's move above $6.70 per pound and its sixth consecutive daily gain demonstrate the strength of current market momentum. The fundamental question is whether supply constraints will continue to outweigh potential demand-side pressure created by elevated prices and tighter financial conditions. The supply picture remains a major variable. If global mine production continues to decline and disruptions persist, the market could remain sensitive to even relatively small changes in available inventories. Conversely, evidence that mine output is recovering, demand is slowing or tariff-related trade disruption is reducing US consumption could moderate the rally. Copper Supply Outlook The supply outlook remains constrained by several factors. Production disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have reduced expected output, while weak Chilean production and declining ore grades create longer-term challenges. Copper mines also have long development timelines. Even when prices provide strong economic incentives, bringing new capacity online can take years because of exploration, permitting, financing, construction and commissioning requirements. This limits the speed at which the supply side can respond to sustained price increases. Copper Demand Outlook The demand outlook remains supported by several structural themes. AI infrastructure, electricity-grid investment, electrification and defence spending are all creating additional copper requirements. The key question is whether these structural sources of demand can continue expanding quickly enough to absorb potential increases in mining supply. If they do, the copper market could remain relatively tight even if global economic growth moderates. Copper Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Copper is likely to remain highly sensitive to supply headlines as traders assess whether the current production weakness represents a temporary disruption or a more persistent structural constraint. Markets will be watching: Global mine production Indonesia and DRC mining disruptions Chilean output Copper ore grades AI data-centre investment Power-grid spending Global industrial demand US copper tariff decisions US and Chinese economic activity The market is currently being driven by a combination of declining mine supply and strong structural demand. The biggest risk to the bullish narrative would be evidence of substantial demand destruction or a faster-than-expected recovery in global mine production. Currency Hedger View Copper's dollar-denominated pricing also means that currency movements can influence the effective cost faced by international buyers. For businesses purchasing copper, electrical equipment or other commodities internationally, managing the associated FX exposure can be an important part of controlling overall procurement costs. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping clients manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and cross-border financial commitments. Currency Hedger Today Markets View Copper has extended its rally to a sixth consecutive session, moving above $6.70 per pound as supply concerns continue to dominate the market. The bullish case is supported by falling global mine production, major disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, weak Chilean output and strong structural demand from AI data centres, electricity grids and defence. The bearish case centres on elevated prices, potential demand destruction, future mining investment and uncertainty surrounding proposed US copper tariffs. For now, the market's central theme remains the difficulty of expanding copper supply quickly enough to match growing structural demand. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Octalas Group Ltd, on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger, provides market commentary and analysis for informational purposes only. This material does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Platinum Price Forecast: Platinum Holds Near $1,800 as Dollar Strength Offsets Tight Supply Fundamentals

Platinum futures traded around $1,800 an ounce, remaining rangebound as opposing macroeconomic forces kept prices contained. A firmer US dollar created headwinds for the precious metal, while falling oil prices reduced inflationary pressures and eased concerns over further interest-rate increases. The retreat in oil prices has been linked to increasing diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict and restore energy flows. Lower energy costs can reduce inflation expectations, potentially lowering the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as platinum. However, the Federal Reserve remains a significant source of uncertainty. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have reinforced expectations for a tighter US interest-rate outlook following last week's first rate hike in three years, providing support for the dollar and limiting platinum's upside momentum. Against this mixed macroeconomic backdrop, platinum's underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects industrial demand to increase by 5% in 2026, partly driven by demand associated with artificial intelligence infrastructure. Automotive demand, however, is forecast to decline by 4%, creating an important counterweight. Platinum Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalPlatinum priceAround $1,800/ozPrice actionRangeboundUS dollarFirmerOil pricesDecliningInflation pressureEasingUS interest-rate outlookHawkish / tighter2026 industrial demand+5% forecast2026 automotive demand-4% forecast2026 projected balance265,000 oz surplusAbove-ground stocksAround 3.4 months of global demand Platinum Prices Today: Macro Forces Keep the Market Rangebound Platinum is currently being pulled in opposite directions. A stronger US dollar generally creates pressure on dollar-denominated precious metals because it can make them more expensive for international buyers. At the same time, falling oil prices are easing inflationary concerns. If lower energy prices translate into softer inflation expectations, markets may reduce expectations for additional monetary tightening. That creates a more favourable environment for platinum because the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding precious metal can decline when expectations for higher interest rates weaken. For now, however, the market is balancing these two forces rather than establishing a clear directional trend. Falling Oil Prices Reduce Inflationary Pressure Oil prices have continued to decline as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict increase and expectations improve for the restoration of energy flows. Lower crude prices can have important implications for platinum through the broader interest-rate channel. Energy is a major component of headline inflation. A sustained decline in oil prices could therefore reduce inflationary pressure and make aggressive additional monetary tightening less necessary. For platinum, this is potentially supportive because lower interest-rate expectations can reduce the relative attractiveness of holding cash and other interest-bearing assets. However, this positive influence is being offset by the continued strength of the US dollar. Federal Reserve Outlook Remains a Major Catalyst Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations for a tighter US interest-rate outlook. This remains one of the most important short-term risks for platinum. Higher interest rates generally increase the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not generate interest income. A more hawkish Fed can also support the US dollar, creating an additional headwind for dollar-priced platinum. The market is therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to further Fed commentary, inflation data and changes in expectations surrounding future monetary policy. Platinum Industrial Demand Outlook The industrial demand outlook provides an important source of fundamental support. WPIC forecasts 5% growth in industrial platinum demand during 2026, with part of the increase expected to come from infrastructure associated with artificial intelligence. The expansion of data centres and related infrastructure can increase demand for platinum across certain industrial applications, adding another source of demand beyond the automotive sector. This is significant because platinum demand is not solely dependent on vehicle production. Automotive Demand Faces Pressure The automotive sector remains an important source of platinum demand, but WPIC expects automotive demand to decline by 4% in 2026. This creates a significant counterbalance to stronger industrial demand. Automotive platinum demand is closely connected to vehicle production and emissions-control technologies. Changes in vehicle production, powertrain composition and substitution between platinum and other platinum-group metals can therefore influence overall consumption. The expected decline means the industrial sector will need to provide meaningful additional demand to offset weakness from automotive applications. Platinum Supply and Market Balance WPIC projects a 265,000-ounce surplus in 2026, indicating that total annual supply is expected to exceed demand. On the surface, this would represent a bearish fundamental signal. However, the size of the projected surplus needs to be considered alongside the market's relatively limited above-ground inventories. WPIC expects above-ground stocks to remain equivalent to only around 3.4 months of global demand, following substantial deficits in previous years. This means the market can technically move into surplus while still retaining a relatively small inventory buffer. Above-Ground Stocks Remain a Key Support The limited inventory cushion is one of the most important features of the current platinum market. Previous deficits have reduced available above-ground stocks, leaving the market more sensitive to unexpected changes in mine supply, industrial consumption or investment demand. If demand exceeds expectations or supply experiences an interruption, the relatively small inventory buffer could amplify price movements. Conversely, if the projected 2026 surplus materialises and demand remains weaker than expected, inventories could begin rebuilding. Bullish Sentiment 1. Industrial Demand Growth WPIC's forecast for 5% growth in industrial demand in 2026 provides a fundamental source of support. 2. AI Infrastructure Increasing investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to contribute to industrial platinum demand, potentially creating a structural source of consumption. 3. Low Above-Ground Stocks Stocks equivalent to only around 3.4 months of global demand leave the market with a relatively limited buffer against unexpected supply disruptions. 4. Lower Oil Prices Falling oil prices are easing inflationary pressure, potentially reducing expectations for additional interest-rate increases and lowering the opportunity cost of holding platinum. 5. Previous Market Deficits The projected 2026 surplus follows substantial deficits in previous years, meaning the current inventory position remains relatively tight despite expectations for improved annual supply. Bearish Sentiment 1. Stronger US Dollar A firmer dollar is creating direct pressure on dollar-denominated platinum prices. 2. Hawkish Federal Reserve Hawkish Fed commentary is reinforcing expectations for tighter US monetary policy, potentially increasing the opportunity cost of holding platinum. 3. Projected 2026 Surplus WPIC's forecast for a 265,000-ounce surplus represents a fundamental supply-demand headwind. 4. Automotive Demand Decline Automotive platinum demand is forecast to fall 4% in 2026, potentially offsetting part of the expected growth in industrial consumption. 5. Higher Interest-Rate Expectations If markets continue pricing a tighter US monetary-policy outlook, precious metals could face additional pressure through higher yields and a stronger dollar. Platinum Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The platinum market currently lacks a single dominant catalyst. The $1,800/oz area is being influenced by a combination of dollar strength, interest-rate expectations, falling oil prices and underlying physical-market fundamentals. The near-term direction will depend heavily on whether macroeconomic pressures or supply-demand fundamentals take control. A stronger dollar and continued hawkish Fed guidance could keep platinum contained or place renewed pressure on prices. Conversely, further declines in oil prices, softer inflation expectations and evidence of stronger industrial demand could improve sentiment. The relatively low level of above-ground stocks also means that unexpected supply disruptions could produce a disproportionately strong reaction. Platinum Supply Outlook The projected 2026 surplus suggests that supply conditions could become less restrictive than in previous years. However, the market is entering this period with inventories that remain relatively limited compared with total global demand. This creates an important distinction between annual market balance and available inventory. Even if production exceeds consumption over the full year, the relatively small inventory buffer could continue to provide support if physical availability tightens temporarily. Platinum Demand Outlook Demand is likely to remain divided between different end-use sectors. Industrial demand is expected to expand, supported partly by AI-related infrastructure investment. Automotive demand is expected to contract, creating a drag on total consumption. The performance of these two sectors will therefore be important in determining whether the projected 265,000-ounce surplus materialises or whether stronger-than-expected industrial demand narrows the balance. Platinum Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Platinum is likely to remain sensitive to movements in the US dollar and changes in Federal Reserve expectations. Traders will be monitoring: US dollar direction Federal Reserve commentary US inflation expectations Oil prices Middle East diplomatic developments Industrial platinum demand Automotive demand Platinum inventory levels AI infrastructure investment The market's key tension remains clear: the 2026 supply balance is expected to move into surplus, but above-ground stocks remain relatively tight after previous deficits. Currency Hedger View Platinum's dollar-denominated pricing means movements in the US dollar can have an important secondary impact on international buyers and businesses exposed to platinum-related costs. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and cross-border financial commitments. For businesses purchasing commodities or operating across multiple currencies, managing the FX component of an underlying commodity transaction can help separate currency risk from the underlying price exposure. Currency Hedger Today Markets View Platinum remains rangebound around $1,800 an ounce as conflicting macroeconomic and fundamental forces prevent a decisive move. The bullish case is supported by expected industrial demand growth, AI infrastructure investment, falling oil prices and relatively low above-ground stocks following previous market deficits. The bearish case centres on a projected 265,000-ounce surplus in 2026, declining automotive demand, a firmer US dollar and renewed expectations for tighter US monetary policy. The coming sessions are therefore likely to remain highly dependent on the interaction between Federal Reserve expectations and platinum's physical-market fundamentals. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Octalas Group Ltd, on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger, provides market commentary and analysis for informational purposes only. This material does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Energies

September 22, 2026

European Natural Gas Price Forecast: TTF Gas Rebounds as Middle East Risks and Low German Storage Keep Winter Supply in Focus

European natural gas prices rebounded toward €74 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, recovering after falling almost 8% in the previous session to a two-week low. The sharp reversal highlights how quickly European gas markets are responding to changes in geopolitical risk, LNG shipping conditions and expectations for winter supply. The latest decline had been driven by renewed diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the Middle East conflict, alongside improving vessel flows from the Gulf. Markets are now closely watching potential developments involving US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, with any progress toward negotiations potentially reducing concerns over prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, reports that increasing numbers of LNG tankers and crude carriers are finding alternative routes out of the Gulf have helped ease immediate fears of a severe supply disruption. However, the improvement in shipping conditions has not eliminated the underlying risks facing European energy markets as the winter heating season approaches. European Natural Gas Market Snapshot FactorCurrent Market SignalEuropean natural gasAround €74/MWhPrevious sessionNearly 8% declineRecent lowTwo-week lowGeopolitical driverMiddle East diplomatic effortsShipping conditionsImproving alternative vessel flowsGermany storageHistorically low levels remain a concernWinter outlookSupply risk remains elevatedKey catalystUS-Iran diplomatic developments European Gas Prices Today: Volatility Returns The recovery toward €74/MWh demonstrates that the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. European gas prices initially fell sharply as traders priced a lower probability of an extended disruption to Gulf energy flows. Improving vessel movements also reduced the immediate risk premium attached to LNG and crude transportation. However, the subsequent rebound indicates that traders are not yet convinced that geopolitical risks have been permanently removed. The European market remains particularly exposed because LNG has become increasingly important to the region's overall gas supply balance. Any disruption to global LNG transportation can therefore affect European prices even when the disruption occurs outside Europe itself. Middle East Diplomacy Becomes a Key Gas Market Driver Potential diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran are now an important market variable. A credible reduction in tensions could ease concerns surrounding energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. For European natural gas, the significance extends beyond pipeline supply. The region competes in the global LNG market, meaning disruption to shipping routes can alter LNG availability, freight costs and competition between importing regions. A sustained improvement in the geopolitical situation could therefore reduce the risk premium embedded in European gas prices. However, negotiations remain uncertain, meaning traders are likely to continue reacting rapidly to headlines. LNG Shipping Flows Improve Another factor weighing on European gas prices has been the reported increase in LNG tankers and crude carriers using alternative routes out of the Gulf. Improving vessel flows can reduce concerns that physical energy supplies will become trapped or delayed by regional disruption. This is particularly important for Europe because LNG cargoes can be redirected between markets depending on price signals, shipping costs and perceived geopolitical risk. If alternative routes remain available and shipping volumes continue to recover, the European gas market could face less immediate pressure. The opposite scenario would create renewed upside risk if vessels again face significant restrictions or transportation costs increase sharply. Germany Gas Storage Remains a Major Risk Despite the recent improvement in sentiment, Germany's gas-storage position remains an important concern. Lower-than-expected volumes sought in Germany's latest gas-storage tenders added downward pressure to prices, suggesting that near-term purchasing requirements may be less aggressive than previously anticipated. However, historically low storage levels remain a fundamental vulnerability ahead of the winter heating season. Storage provides an important buffer against demand spikes and supply disruptions. Lower inventories therefore leave the market with less protection if temperatures become unusually cold or if LNG deliveries are disrupted. This creates a major tension in the current market: Short-term supply conditions are improving, while the underlying winter supply cushion remains relatively weak. Bullish Sentiment 1. Historically Low German Storage Germany's relatively low storage position remains one of the strongest arguments for maintaining a risk premium in European natural gas. A colder-than-expected winter could rapidly increase withdrawals and place additional pressure on wholesale prices. 2. Geopolitical Risk Has Not Disappeared Although diplomatic efforts are helping reduce immediate concerns, the Middle East conflict continues to represent a potential threat to global energy transportation. Any deterioration in negotiations could quickly restore the geopolitical premium in European gas. 3. LNG Shipping Disruptions Could Return The improvement in vessel flows is supportive, but it also demonstrates how dependent the market has become on reliable maritime transportation. A renewed disruption around Gulf shipping routes could tighten global LNG availability and push European prices higher. 4. Winter Demand Risk The approach of the European heating season remains a fundamental bullish factor. If temperatures fall significantly below seasonal averages, gas demand for heating and power generation could increase rapidly. 5. Limited Storage Buffer Lower inventories mean the market has less capacity to absorb unexpected supply interruptions. This can amplify price movements when new supply concerns emerge. Bearish Sentiment 1. Diplomatic Progress Could Reduce the Risk Premium Successful US-Iran negotiations could substantially reduce fears surrounding energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. That could remove part of the geopolitical premium currently embedded in European gas prices. 2. Improving Vessel Flows The increasing number of LNG tankers and crude carriers finding alternative routes suggests that physical transportation conditions are improving. Continued improvement could reduce fears of immediate supply shortages. 3. Lower German Tender Demand The latest German storage tenders attracted lower-than-expected volumes, indicating that immediate purchasing requirements may be weaker than anticipated. That could limit short-term demand for additional gas. 4. Potentially Softer Physical Demand If European economic activity remains subdued and industrial gas consumption stays restrained, demand could remain below levels normally associated with a stronger economic cycle. 5. High Volatility Creates Downside Risk After the sharp decline of almost 8% in the previous session, the market has demonstrated how quickly prices can fall when geopolitical risk is removed. Further diplomatic progress could therefore trigger another wave of selling. European Natural Gas Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate direction of European natural gas prices is likely to depend on the interaction between geopolitical developments, LNG shipping flows and European storage levels. A sustained reduction in Middle East tensions could encourage prices to move lower as the geopolitical premium is removed. However, the downside could be limited by Germany's historically low storage position and the approaching winter demand period. The market therefore remains highly headline-sensitive. A continuation of improved vessel flows and successful diplomacy would create a more bearish environment, while renewed conflict, shipping disruption or unexpectedly strong winter demand could quickly reverse the trend. European Gas Supply Outlook The European gas supply outlook has improved from the immediate concerns that drove recent volatility, but the market remains exposed to external shocks. LNG availability is particularly important because European buyers compete for cargoes in a global market. Any disruption that increases Asian LNG demand, reduces available cargoes or raises shipping costs could tighten Europe's supply balance. Germany's storage position adds another layer of sensitivity because lower inventories leave less flexibility to respond to sudden increases in consumption. European Gas Demand Outlook Demand is entering a seasonally important period as temperatures begin to influence heating requirements across Europe. The most important variable will be the pace at which storage facilities are replenished and subsequently drawn down once winter demand increases. A mild winter would reduce pressure on inventories and could reinforce the bearish impact of improving geopolitical conditions. A colder winter would have the opposite effect, increasing withdrawals and potentially exposing the market's limited storage buffer. European Natural Gas Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions European gas prices are likely to remain volatile as traders balance improving short-term physical conditions against persistent winter supply risks. The move back toward €74/MWh following the previous session's nearly 8% decline shows that the market remains unwilling to completely remove its risk premium. For the coming sessions, traders will be watching: US-Iran diplomatic developments Energy flows through and around the Strait of Hormuz LNG tanker movements European storage levels German storage tenders Weather forecasts for the European winter Changes in global LNG demand The market could remain caught between two competing forces: improving geopolitical and shipping conditions on one side, and low European storage levels and winter demand risk on the other. Currency Hedger View For businesses exposed to European energy costs, movements in natural gas prices can have wider implications for EUR-denominated operating costs, procurement budgets and international cash flows. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping clients manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and cross-border financial commitments. For companies purchasing energy, equipment or other commodities in euros, effective currency management can be particularly important when commodity prices and exchange rates are both volatile. Currency Hedger Today Markets View European natural gas has entered another period of heightened volatility. The sharp decline in the previous session reflected renewed optimism surrounding Middle East diplomacy and improving vessel flows, but the rebound toward €74/MWh shows that traders remain cautious. The fundamental picture is therefore mixed. Bearish factors include improving LNG shipping conditions, potential diplomatic progress and lower-than-expected German storage tender demand. Bullish factors include historically low German storage levels, approaching winter heating demand and the possibility that geopolitical or shipping disruptions could return. The key question for the market is whether improving geopolitical conditions will persist long enough to remove the risk premium before winter demand places renewed pressure on Europe's gas balance. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Octalas Group Ltd, on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger, provides market commentary and analysis for informational purposes only. This material does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Coffee Price Forecast: Arabica and Robusta Fall to 3-Month Lows as Record Supply Weighs on Prices

Coffee prices came under renewed pressure on Monday, with both arabica and robusta futures falling to three-month lows as expectations for abundant global supplies continued to dominate market sentiment. December ICE arabica coffee settled 4.10 points lower at 277.10, down 1.46%, while November ICE robusta coffee declined 59 points to 3,335, a loss of 1.74%. The coffee market has been under pressure for approximately three weeks as traders increasingly focus on expectations for record global production during the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons. The International Coffee Organization has projected a return to a global surplus, while the latest USDA outlook points to another record crop in 2026/27. Improving growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam are adding to the bearish supply narrative. Brazil's current harvest is nearing completion, allowing large volumes of coffee to enter export markets, while beneficial rainfall in Brazil's Minas Gerais region could support flowering and the next arabica crop. However, the supply outlook is not without risks. ICE arabica inventories remain historically low despite their recent recovery, while the potential impact of El Niño on Brazil's 2026/27 crop provides an important medium-term bullish counterweight. The market is therefore balancing an increasingly comfortable global supply outlook against weather risks that could disrupt production later in the cycle. Coffee Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DevelopmentPrice ImpactDecember Arabica-4.10, -1.46%BearishNovember Robusta-59, -1.74%Bearish2025/26 Global Production – ICO183.6M bags, +4.4% y/yBearish2025/26 Global Balance – ICO3M-bag surplusBearishBrazil August Coffee Exports4.155M bags, +31% y/yBearishBrazil August Arabica Exports2.87M bags, +26% y/yBearishBrazil August Robusta Exports953,592 bags, +54% y/yBearishVietnam Jan-Aug 2026 Exports1.33M MT, +13.7% y/yBearishICE Arabica Stocks258,415 bagsMixedICE Robusta Stocks5,043 lotsBearishUSDA 2026/27 Global Crop189.7M bags, +6% y/yBearishUSDA 2026/27 Global Ending Stocks26.3M bags, +1.9MBearishUSDA 2026/27 Brazil Crop71.9M bags, +14% y/yBearish Coffee Prices Today: Futures Hit Three-Month Lows December arabica and November robusta both declined sharply enough to reach three-month lows as traders continued to price in expectations for larger global coffee availability. The selling pressure has intensified over the past three weeks as production estimates have become increasingly bearish. The ICO's latest assessment points to a return to surplus conditions, while the USDA is forecasting another record global crop for 2026/27. The immediate market narrative is therefore centred on supply. For arabica, the biggest pressure is coming from Brazil, where the current harvest is approaching completion and substantial export volumes are entering the international market. For robusta, Vietnam is providing an additional source of supply pressure, with higher exports and expectations for increased production during the 2025/26 season. Global Coffee Market Returns to Surplus One of the most important bearish developments is the International Coffee Organization's latest global balance estimate. On September 10, the ICO projected 2025/26 global coffee production at a record 183.6 million bags, representing an increase of 4.4% year-over-year. At the same time, global consumption was projected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. The result is an estimated 3 million-bag global surplus, which would represent the first surplus in five years. This marks a significant change in the supply-demand balance following several seasons in which weather problems and production disruptions kept the market relatively tight. A return to surplus conditions is therefore providing a substantial fundamental headwind for prices. Brazil Coffee Exports Surge Brazil's export data reinforces the bearish supply picture. Cecafe reported on September 10 that Brazilian coffee exports reached 4.155 million bags in August, an increase of 31% year-over-year and a record for the month of August. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports surged 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazil's Trade Ministry also reported that August coffee exports increased 44.6% year-over-year to 206,618 metric tons, representing the strongest export volume in eight months. The increase comes as Brazil's harvest approaches completion, allowing the large crop to move into international markets. The resulting increase in physical availability is putting downward pressure on futures prices, particularly as traders anticipate continued export flows. Brazil Weather Supports the Next Crop Weather conditions are also currently favouring higher production expectations. Somar Meteorologia reported that 33.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais during the week ending September 20. That represented approximately 242% of the historical average for the region. Minas Gerais is Brazil's main arabica-producing region, making rainfall during the flowering period particularly important. Adequate moisture during this stage can support flowering and subsequent cherry development, potentially improving prospects for the 2026/27 arabica crop. This is therefore another bearish factor for prices, particularly when combined with expectations for a record Brazilian crop. Vietnam Supply Weighs on Robusta Vietnam's production and export outlook is particularly important for robusta coffee. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and its latest export data points toward significantly greater availability. Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported on September 2 that coffee exports during January-August 2026 increased 13.7% year-over-year to 1.33 million metric tons. Vietnam's full-year 2025 coffee exports also increased 17.5% to 1.58 million MT. Meanwhile, 2025/26 Vietnamese coffee production is projected to increase 6% year-over-year to 1.76 million MT, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. The combination of higher production and stronger exports is creating additional pressure on robusta prices. Arabica Inventories Remain Historically Tight One of the key differences between arabica and robusta is the inventory situation. ICE arabica coffee inventories recently fell to just 217,646 bags, the lowest level in 27 years. Stocks subsequently recovered to 258,415 bags, a 1.5-month high, but inventories remain historically low. This provides an important bullish argument for arabica. Low certified inventories can make the market more sensitive to any disruption in physical availability, particularly if exporters or roasters need to source deliverable coffee quickly. The recent inventory recovery is bearish at the margin, but the absolute level remains an important underlying support factor. Robusta Inventories Move Higher Robusta has a very different inventory profile. ICE robusta inventories climbed to approximately 5,043 lots, the highest level in 9.5 months. Rising stocks suggest that physical availability is improving and reinforce the bearish production narrative surrounding Vietnam and other robusta-producing regions. This inventory divergence is one reason arabica and robusta may not necessarily follow identical price paths even though both are currently being pressured by the broader global supply outlook. USDA Forecasts Record 2026/27 Coffee Production The latest USDA biannual outlook is another significant bearish factor. On July 22, the USDA forecast 2026/27 global coffee production at 189.7 million bags, an increase of approximately 6% year-over-year, or 10.8 million bags. The USDA expects global arabica production to increase approximately 12%, while robusta production is projected to decline by around 0.7%. Global ending stocks are also expected to rise by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. The combination of higher production and higher ending inventories suggests that the USDA expects global availability to improve substantially. Brazil 2026/27 Crop Could Reach Record Levels Brazil is central to the USDA's bullish production outlook. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecast on June 3 projected a record 71.9 million bags for Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop, representing an increase of 14% year-over-year. If achieved, such a crop would significantly increase global arabica availability. The forecast also explains why beneficial rainfall in Minas Gerais is currently receiving close attention from traders. If weather remains favourable through the flowering and development stages, expectations for a large Brazilian crop could become increasingly entrenched. El Niño Creates Medium-Term Coffee Risk Despite the strong production outlook, weather remains the biggest potential threat to the bearish narrative. Coffee trader Commercial warned that El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, the period when coffee trees normally flower. A delayed or inadequate rainfall pattern could negatively affect the 2026/27 Brazilian crop, potentially undermining the current record-production expectations. The US Climate Prediction Center said on July 8 that the El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Such a weather pattern can produce significant variations in rainfall and temperatures across major agricultural regions. For coffee, this creates a potential medium-term supply risk across both South America and Asia. Bullish Sentiment 1. Historically Low Arabica Inventories ICE arabica stocks recently fell to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags, demonstrating that immediately deliverable supplies remain historically tight. 2. El Niño Weather Risk A potentially strong El Niño could disrupt rainfall patterns across Brazil and other coffee-producing regions, threatening the 2026/27 crop. 3. Brazilian Flowering Vulnerability September and October are critical for Brazil's coffee flowering cycle. Any prolonged dryness during this period could reduce the potential size of the next crop. 4. Weather Volatility in Asia and South America Potential floods, droughts and temperature fluctuations associated with El Niño could create production risks even while current supply estimates remain strong. 5. Arabica Supply Remains More Constrained Than Global Headlines Suggest Although global production is expected to rise, extremely low ICE arabica inventories indicate that the physical market does not have unlimited immediately deliverable supply. 6. Potential Divergence Between Arabica and Robusta The historically low arabica inventory situation contrasts with rising robusta stocks, creating the potential for different price responses between the two coffee varieties. Bearish Sentiment 1. Global Coffee Surplus The ICO expects a 3 million-bag global surplus for 2025/26, the first surplus in five years. 2. Record Global Production The ICO estimates 2025/26 production at a record 183.6 million bags, while the USDA expects production to rise further to 189.7 million bags in 2026/27. 3. Brazil Export Growth Brazilian coffee exports surged 31% year-over-year in August, reaching a record for the month and increasing physical availability. 4. Strong Vietnamese Supply Vietnam's January-August coffee exports increased 13.7%, while 2025/26 production is expected to reach a four-year high. 5. Rising Robusta Inventories ICE robusta stocks have climbed to a 9.5-month high of 5,043 lots, reinforcing the bearish supply outlook for robusta. 6. Higher Global Ending Stocks The USDA expects global ending stocks to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags in 2026/27. 7. Beneficial Brazilian Rainfall Rainfall in Minas Gerais reached 242% of the historical average during the latest reported week, potentially supporting the next Brazilian crop. Coffee Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The coffee market is currently facing a significant shift in its fundamental balance. The bearish argument is straightforward: global production is increasing, the ICO expects a surplus, the USDA forecasts another record crop, Brazilian exports are surging and Vietnamese supplies are improving. However, the market is not completely bearish. Arabica inventories remain exceptionally low, and the possibility of El Niño disrupting Brazilian flowering provides a significant medium-term risk. If Brazilian rainfall deteriorates during the critical September-October period, expectations for a record 2026/27 crop could be revised lower. The next major directional move is therefore likely to depend heavily on Brazilian weather, flowering conditions, export flows and certified inventories. For robusta, the supply picture is currently more comfortable because Vietnamese exports are increasing and ICE inventories are rising. Coffee Supply Outlook The global supply outlook is currently expanding. Brazil is approaching the end of its harvest with substantial coffee moving into export channels, while Vietnam is reporting stronger exports and higher production expectations. The USDA's projection for 189.7 million bags of global production in 2026/27 reinforces the expectation of abundant supply. However, the Brazilian crop remains highly weather-dependent. The current beneficial rainfall pattern is supportive, but any significant change during flowering could quickly alter the production outlook. The supply story therefore remains strongly influenced by weather rather than production estimates alone. Coffee Demand Outlook The return of a global surplus suggests that production is currently outpacing consumption. The ICO expects 2025/26 consumption to fall 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, while production increases 4.4%. This creates a potentially challenging environment for prices unless consumption strengthens or supply expectations are reduced. The key question for the market is whether lower prices eventually stimulate consumption sufficiently to absorb the additional production. If demand improves while arabica inventories remain historically low, the downside could become more limited. Conversely, continued weak consumption alongside record production would reinforce the bearish market structure. Coffee Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Coffee is entering a period in which Brazilian weather will become increasingly important. The immediate market narrative remains bearish because of record global production expectations, strong Brazilian exports, improving Vietnamese supply and rising robusta inventories. Nevertheless, arabica's historically low ICE stocks and the potential impact of El Niño prevent the supply outlook from being entirely one-directional. For the coming sessions, traders are likely to focus on rainfall across Minas Gerais, Brazilian flowering conditions, export volumes and changes in ICE inventories. A continuation of favourable Brazilian weather would reinforce expectations for a large 2026/27 crop and could maintain pressure on prices. A deterioration in rainfall or evidence of flowering stress could revive the weather-risk premium. Currency Hedger View Coffee importers, roasters and international businesses face exposure not only to coffee prices but also to the currency in which those purchases are settled. With coffee predominantly traded internationally in US dollars, movements in the dollar can change the effective cost of coffee for businesses operating in euro, sterling and other currencies. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping clients manage international currency requirements alongside their broader financial planning. For businesses purchasing coffee internationally, managing currency exposure can provide greater visibility over landed costs when commodity prices and exchange rates are both volatile. Today Markets View Coffee prices have entered a more supply-driven phase, with both arabica and robusta falling to three-month lows as traders respond to expectations for abundant global production. The bearish case is supported by the ICO's projected 3 million-bag surplus, the USDA's forecast for 189.7 million bags of global production in 2026/27, strong Brazilian exports, rising Vietnamese supply and increasing robusta inventories. At the same time, arabica inventories remain historically low, while El Niño introduces a potentially significant weather risk to Brazil's next crop. Bullish sentiment is therefore concentrated around low arabica stocks and future weather risks, while bearish sentiment is dominated by expanding production and improving physical availability. The next major catalyst is likely to come from Brazil. Continued favourable rainfall during flowering would strengthen the record-crop narrative, while a deterioration in weather could force traders to reassess current 2026/27 production expectations. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Disclaimer: Today Markets is a division of Octalas Group Ltd. The information provided is for general market commentary and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, trading or other professional advice. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Currency Hedger is a division of Octalas Group Ltd and provides information relating to foreign exchange and currency management services. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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September 22, 2026

Cocoa Price Forecast: Cocoa Recovers From 8-Week Lows as Dry Weather and West African Crop Risks Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis Cocoa prices recovered from eight-week lows on Monday as short-covering emerged amid concerns that forecast dry weather in the Ivory Coast could place additional stress on cocoa trees and reduce yields during the 2026/27 crop season. December ICE NY cocoa settled 24 points higher at 5,354, while December ICE London cocoa #7 gained 27 points to 3,948. The recovery comes after cocoa prices came under significant pressure during the previous three weeks as evidence of stronger production from the Ivory Coast and rising exchange inventories encouraged bearish sentiment. However, the market is now balancing those supply improvements against growing concerns about the next West African crop, particularly as weather conditions, disease and poor pod development become increasingly important to the outlook. The fundamental picture remains mixed. Current-season production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana has been strong, while ICE inventories have reached their highest level in two years. At the same time, early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast and Ghana crops point toward potentially lower production, while the prospect of El Niño-related heat and dryness adds a medium-term supply risk. Cocoa Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DevelopmentPrice ImpactDecember NY Cocoa+24 points, +0.45%BullishDecember London Cocoa+27 points, +0.69%BullishIvory Coast 2025/26 harvest2.06 MMT, +30% y/yBearishIvory Coast port shipments2.14 MMT, +18% y/yBearishICE Cocoa Inventories3.43 million bagsBearishGhana 2026/27 estimate650,000 MT, -13% y/yBullishIvory Coast early 2026/27 estimate~1.8 MMT, -18% y/yBullishGlobal 2026/27 surplus – StoneX25,000 MTMixed/BullishGlobal 2026/27 surplus – Transgraph80,000 MTMixedQ2 European grindings-4.6% y/yBearishQ2 North American grindings+7.7% y/yBullishQ2 Asian grindings+25% y/yBullish Cocoa Prices Today: Short-Covering Follows Eight-Week Low December NY cocoa and December London cocoa both moved higher on Monday as traders responded to forecasts for drier conditions in the Ivory Coast. The move represents a recovery from the recent eight-week lows and suggests that traders are beginning to reassess the downside after the market's three-week decline. The immediate catalyst is weather. Dry conditions at this stage of the crop cycle can reduce soil moisture, increase stress on cocoa trees and potentially damage yield prospects. This has encouraged short-covering as traders consider whether the recent decline has already priced in much of the current-season production improvement. However, the recovery does not remove the bearish supply evidence currently weighing on the market. Ivory Coast Production Creates Bearish Pressure The Ivory Coast remains the most important factor for global cocoa supply, and production data for the current season has been particularly strong. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported on September 2 that the country harvested 2.06 million metric tons of cocoa between June 2025 and June 2026. That represented an increase of approximately 30% from the 1.58 million MT harvested a year earlier. Strong production has contributed to expectations that global cocoa availability is considerably better than during the severe supply shortages that pushed prices to record levels during the previous El Niño-related crisis. Bloomberg also reported that Ivory Coast farmers had shipped approximately 2.14 million MT of cocoa to ports during the international cocoa marketing year through September 13, an increase of 18% from the corresponding period a year earlier. There is, however, an important calendar distinction. The Ivory Coast changed its domestic marketing year this year to begin on September 1, while the international cocoa marketing year traditionally begins on October 1. Reuters reported that under the Ivory Coast's new marketing-year calendar, deliveries during September 1-13 were approximately 26,000 MT, down 45.8% from the comparable period of the previous season. This creates some uncertainty when comparing shipment statistics across the two reporting systems. Cocoa Inventories Reach Two-Year High Exchange inventories remain another major bearish factor. ICE cocoa inventories climbed to approximately 3,436,742 bags on September 4, the highest level in two years. Stocks were still close to that level at approximately 3,431,944 bags on Monday. Higher certified inventories indicate that immediately available cocoa supplies are substantially more comfortable than during the extreme shortage conditions seen previously. For the futures market, continued inventory accumulation could limit the upside unless physical demand strengthens or expectations for the 2026/27 crop deteriorate materially. The inventory trend will therefore remain one of the key indicators for traders assessing whether the recent recovery represents the beginning of a broader reversal or simply a temporary correction. West African Weather Creates New Supply Risk The medium-term outlook is becoming more complicated. Cocoa prices had previously reached an 11.75-month high on August 31 in New York and an 11.75-month high in London on September 1, partly because of concerns about the quality of the upcoming West African crop. Cloudy weather and limited sunshine across the Ivory Coast and Ghana have created conditions favourable for black pod disease, which can damage cocoa pods and reduce bean quality. The combination of disease and weather stress is particularly important because the market is now transitioning from assessing the strong 2025/26 crop toward determining the potential size and quality of the 2026/27 main crop. Ivory Coast 2026/27 Crop Outlook Early surveys of the Ivory Coast crop have provided a more supportive signal. Initial assessments reportedly show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees. Cherelles are young developing cocoa pods, and poor formation can signal weaker production later in the season. Early estimates have placed Ivory Coast's 2026/27 production around 1.8 million MT, approximately 18% below the estimated 2.2 million MT produced during 2025/26. If this reduction is confirmed, the market could move from a period of abundant current-season supply toward tighter conditions during the next marketing year. That transition is one of the most important bullish arguments currently supporting cocoa. Ghana Production Risks Increase Ghana provides another potentially significant source of supply pressure. Ghana's Cocoa Board said on August 20 that its field survey indicated a 2026/27 crop of approximately 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT in 2025/26. COCOBOD subsequently projected on July 30 that 2026/27 production could potentially fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 MT, compared with approximately 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26. The lower projections have been attributed to a combination of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and potentially adverse El Niño weather conditions. However, Ghana's current-season production remains strong. COCOBOD reported on August 26 that approximately 750,000 MT had already been harvested during the 2025/26 season, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. This creates an important distinction for traders: current supply is strong, but forward supply expectations are deteriorating. Global Cocoa Balance Becoming Tighter Global balance estimates also provide some support to the medium-term cocoa outlook. StoneX reduced its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to only 25,000 MT, down sharply from its previous estimate of 149,000 MT. The revision reflected increased risks to West African production and expectations for El Niño-related weather. Transgraph Consulting also expects the global surplus to narrow substantially, forecasting an 80,000 MT surplus in 2026/27, compared with 415,000 MT in 2025/26. Its forecast assumes global cocoa production will decline to approximately 4.87 million MT, compared with 5.11 million MT in 2025/26. The important point is that neither forecast currently signals a major global deficit. Instead, the market appears to be moving toward a much smaller surplus, leaving cocoa prices increasingly sensitive to any additional production disruption. El Niño Remains a Medium-Term Bullish Risk Weather is likely to become increasingly important as the 2026/27 season progresses. The US Climate Prediction Center said on July 8 that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Historically, El Niño can contribute to warmer and drier conditions in West Africa. For cocoa producers, this can reduce soil moisture, increase tree stress and negatively affect yields. The effect will ultimately depend on the intensity, duration and geographic distribution of the weather pattern. Nevertheless, the possibility of a significant El Niño provides cocoa with an important medium-term supply risk. Cocoa Demand Sends Mixed Signals Demand remains less straightforward. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year-over-year to 316,366 MT in Q2, according to the European Cocoa Association. The decline was larger than the expected 1.5% reduction and represented the weakest second-quarter grinding volume in six years. That is a significant bearish demand signal because Europe remains one of the world's major cocoa processing regions. However, North American and Asian processing data provide a contrasting picture. The National Confectioners Association reported that North American Q2 cocoa grindings increased 7.7% year-over-year to 109,659 MT, substantially outperforming expectations for a 1% decline. Asian cocoa grindings were even stronger, increasing 25% year-over-year to 224,646 MT, according to the Cocoa Association of Asia. Consequently, the demand picture is not uniformly weak. European consumption and processing remain under pressure, but stronger North American and Asian grinding figures suggest that global demand has not collapsed. Bullish Sentiment 1. Dry Ivory Coast Weather Forecast dry conditions in the Ivory Coast are encouraging short-covering and raising concerns about crop stress during the early stages of the 2026/27 season. 2. Lower West African Crop Expectations Early assessments point toward weaker production in both the Ivory Coast and Ghana, creating a potentially tighter supply environment ahead. 3. Ghana Production Risks Swollen shoot disease, aging farms and possible El Niño weather effects could significantly reduce Ghana's 2026/27 production. 4. El Niño Weather Risk A potentially strong El Niño creates a longer-term threat to soil moisture and cocoa yields across West Africa. 5. Smaller Global Surplus StoneX and Transgraph both expect the global cocoa surplus to shrink substantially during 2026/27. 6. Strong Asian and North American Demand Q2 grinding data from Asia and North America showed substantial year-over-year growth, offsetting some of the weakness seen in Europe. Bearish Sentiment 1. Strong Ivory Coast Current-Season Production Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT, up approximately 30% year-over-year, demonstrating the strength of current supply. 2. Higher Ivory Coast Shipments Shipments during the international marketing year were reported at approximately 2.14 MMT, up 18% year-over-year. 3. Two-Year-High ICE Inventories ICE cocoa inventories remain near 3.43 million bags, providing evidence of significantly improved available supply. 4. Strong Ghana 2025/26 Crop Ghana has harvested approximately 750,000 MT during the current season, representing a 25.6% increase from the previous year. 5. Weak European Grindings European Q2 grindings fell 4.6%, reaching their lowest Q2 level in six years and highlighting ongoing demand pressure. 6. Short-Term Correction Risk Cocoa's recent recovery follows a sharp decline and could attract additional selling if inventories continue rising or production data remain strong. Cocoa Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The cocoa market is currently caught between strong current-season supply and increasingly uncertain forward production. The bearish case centres on high Ivory Coast production, strong Ghanaian output, elevated ICE inventories and weaker European processing demand. These factors provide evidence that physical availability has improved considerably from the extreme shortage conditions of previous years. The bullish case is increasingly focused on the next crop. Poor cherelle formation, disease risks, lower Ghana production estimates and potential El Niño-related dryness could reduce 2026/27 output. As a result, cocoa prices may remain highly sensitive to incoming weather and crop-development reports. A sustained recovery would require evidence that the next crop is deteriorating sufficiently to offset the current inventory surplus. Conversely, continued strong arrivals and stable weather could keep the market under pressure. Cocoa Supply Outlook The supply outlook is likely to become increasingly dependent on the transition between the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons. Current production remains strong, particularly in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. However, early indications for the next season are less encouraging. The market therefore faces a potential timing mismatch: abundant nearby supply versus potentially tighter forward supply. This can create significant volatility because futures traders must continually adjust expectations as weather, disease and crop-development data become available. Cocoa Demand Outlook Global demand remains mixed rather than uniformly weak. Europe is showing clear signs of pressure, with Q2 grinding volumes falling sharply. However, North American grindings increased 7.7%, while Asian grindings surged 25%. This divergence means cocoa demand needs to be monitored region by region rather than judged solely through European processing figures. If Asian and North American demand remains strong while West African production declines, the smaller projected global surplus could disappear more quickly than currently expected. Cocoa Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Near-term cocoa trading is likely to remain driven by the interaction between weather forecasts, West African arrivals, ICE inventories and technical short-covering. The immediate recovery from eight-week lows indicates that traders are responding to the prospect of crop stress in the Ivory Coast. However, inventories near a two-year high provide a substantial counterweight. The market could therefore remain volatile as traders weigh two competing narratives: strong current supply versus potentially weaker 2026/27 production. For the coming sessions, fresh weather developments in the Ivory Coast and Ghana will be particularly important. Any evidence of worsening dryness or disease could strengthen the bullish narrative, while continued strong arrivals and rising inventories would reinforce the bearish case. Currency Hedger View For businesses exposed to cocoa prices, the current market highlights the importance of managing both commodity-price risk and currency exposure. Cocoa is globally traded in US dollars, meaning that changes in the dollar can materially affect the effective cost of cocoa purchases for businesses operating in euro, sterling or other currencies. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services for business and personal clients, helping clients manage international currency requirements alongside their wider financial planning. For companies purchasing cocoa, food ingredients or other commodities internationally, managing the underlying currency exposure can help provide greater visibility over future costs when commodity prices are already volatile. Today Markets View Cocoa has moved into a particularly sensitive phase of the 2026/27 outlook. The current fundamental picture still contains significant bearish elements, particularly strong Ivory Coast production, elevated ICE inventories and weak European grindings. However, the forward supply outlook is becoming more supportive as early crop assessments point toward weaker production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. The central question for cocoa traders is whether the expected decline in the 2026/27 crop will be large enough to absorb the substantial inventories accumulated during the stronger 2025/26 production cycle. Bullish sentiment is being driven by dry-weather risks, disease, poor pod development, lower Ghanaian production forecasts and El Niño concerns. Bearish sentiment remains centred on high inventories and strong current-season West African production. This leaves cocoa positioned between improving near-term availability and increasing medium-term production uncertainty, with weather and crop-development data likely to determine the next major directional move. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Disclaimer: Today Markets is a division of Octalas Group Ltd. The information provided is for general market commentary and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, trading or other professional advice. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Currency Hedger is a division of Octalas Group Ltd and provides information relating to foreign exchange and currency management services. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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September 22, 2026

Sugar Price Forecast: NY Sugar Recovers as Global Deficit Risks Clash With Weak Physical Demand

Sugar prices recovered from three-and-a-half-week lows on Monday, with NY World Sugar #11 finishing higher while London white sugar closed slightly lower. The market remains caught between short-term demand concerns and longer-term risks of a tightening global sugar balance. October NY World Sugar #11 closed 0.12 points higher at 17.52 cents per pound, a gain of 0.69%, while December London ICE White Sugar #5 fell 1.30 points to 503.20 dollars per tonne, down 0.26%. The recovery in New York sugar was partly linked to strength in the Brazilian real, which reached a one-week high against the US Dollar. A stronger real can discourage Brazilian producers from selling sugar into export markets because the local-currency value of export revenues becomes less attractive. However, the physical market remains a significant concern. The expiry of the October London sugar contract resulted in 499,350 metric tonnes of sugar being delivered, up 91% year-on-year and among the largest October contract deliveries on record. The unusually large delivery has raised concerns about weak physical demand and the availability of sugar for delivery. At the same time, longer-term supply forecasts remain increasingly divided. The International Sugar Organization projects a 200,000-tonne global deficit for 2026/27, while StoneX has forecast a substantially larger 1.7 million-tonne deficit. Covrig Analytics has also shifted toward a deficit scenario, while other forecasts point to continued production growth and higher ending stocks. This divergence means traders are increasingly focused on Brazilian production, Indian weather, Thailand's crop outlook, global consumption and the direction of speculative positioning. Sugar Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalOctober NY Sugar #1117.52¢/lb+0.69%October NY Sugar Change+0.12HigherDecember London White Sugar$503.20/MT-0.26%October London Contract Deliveries499,350 MT+91% y/y2026/27 ISO Global Balance-200,000 MTDeficit2025/26 ISO Balance+1.1 MMTSurplusStoneX 2026/27 Forecast-1.7 MMTDeficitCovrig 2026/27 Forecast-300,000 MTDeficit2027/28 Czarnikow Forecast-2.9 MMTDeficitIndia Monsoon Rainfall15% below normalBearish for productionThailand 2026/27 Production10 MMT projected-17% y/yBrazil Center-South June Production3.903 MMT-26.3% y/yUSDA 2026/27 Global Production184.854 MMT-6.5% y/yUSDA 2026/27 Consumption179.991 MMTRecord highUSDA 2026/27 Ending Stocks44.410 MMT+2.0% y/y Sugar Prices Today: New York Recovers From Three-Week Low NY World Sugar #11 initially fell to its lowest level in approximately three-and-a-half weeks before recovering during Monday's session. October sugar eventually closed 0.12 points higher at 17.52 cents per pound. The recovery suggests that buying interest emerged after the recent decline, particularly as the Brazilian real strengthened. The London market was less resilient. December ICE White Sugar #5 closed 1.30 points lower, leaving the two major sugar markets with slightly different signals. The divergence highlights the uncertainty currently surrounding the market. Brazilian Real Strength Supports Sugar Currency movements remain important for sugar because Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. The Brazilian real rallied to a one-week high against the US Dollar on Monday. A stronger real can reduce the incentive for Brazilian mills to sell sugar into international markets because exporters receive fewer reais when converting Dollar-denominated revenues. This can temporarily support international sugar prices by reducing the attractiveness of aggressive Brazilian export selling. However, currency support can change quickly. If the real weakens again, Brazilian producers could regain an incentive to increase export sales. Weak Physical Demand Creates a Major Headwind One of the clearest bearish signals currently comes from the physical market. A total of 499,350 MT of sugar was delivered against the October London contract when it expired last Tuesday. That represented an increase of 91% from the same period last year and was one of the largest deliveries ever recorded for an October contract. Large deliveries can indicate that substantial quantities of physical sugar are available for delivery and can raise questions about underlying demand. This is particularly important because sugar prices had recently reached a 17.25-month high on September 10 on expectations of a developing global deficit. The subsequent decline therefore reflects a reassessment of how quickly supply tightness may actually emerge. Speculative Positioning Could Increase Volatility Commodity funds have also accumulated substantial long exposure. The latest weekly Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their net-long NY sugar positions by 791 contracts during the week ending September 15. Total net-long positioning reached 161,342 contracts, the highest level in almost three years. Heavy long positioning can support prices when the market is rising, but it can also increase downside pressure if traders begin liquidating positions. This creates an important risk for sugar. If fundamental news fails to justify the premium embedded in futures, long liquidation could accelerate a market decline. Global Sugar Deficit Forecasts Remain Divided The long-term sugar outlook remains dominated by conflicting forecasts. The International Sugar Organization projects a 200,000-tonne global deficit in 2026/27, compared with a projected 1.1 million-tonne surplus in 2025/26. StoneX has adopted a significantly more bullish supply outlook, forecasting a 1.7 million-tonne deficit for 2026/27, compared with its previous estimate of a 550,000-tonne deficit. Covrig Analytics has also moved toward a deficit, forecasting a 300,000-tonne shortfall. Czarnikow has projected an even larger 2.9 million-tonne deficit for 2027/28, citing lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings and weather-related production risks. These forecasts indicate that several major industry analysts expect the global sugar balance to tighten. However, the size of the projected deficits varies considerably. India Weather Becomes Increasingly Important India remains one of the world's largest sugar producers, making monsoon conditions critical to the global supply outlook. India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall 15% below normal as of September 21. Although the rainfall deficit has improved substantially from 42% below normal on June 30, the overall season remains significantly drier than normal. The Indian Meteorological Department has warned that the current monsoon could be the weakest in 17 years. A prolonged rainfall deficit could affect sugar cane yields and therefore tighten future global supplies. However, the USDA has a more constructive outlook for India's 2026/27 production, forecasting output to rise 12% year-on-year to 33.6 MMT. This is one of the major areas where global sugar forecasts diverge. India Allows Tax-Free Sugar Imports India has already taken a notable step that highlights concerns about domestic supply. On August 20, India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced that up to 1 MMT of raw sugar could be imported without taxes through October 31. India is normally a significant sugar exporter. The decision is therefore notable because substantial imports have not been common since the 2017/18 season. If Indian domestic supplies remain constrained, additional imports could remove sugar from the international market and provide support to global prices. Thailand Production Risks Increase Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter and another key component of the global supply outlook. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected 2026/27 production at 10 MMT, representing a decline of approximately 17% from the previous year. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service has a similar direction of travel, forecasting Thai sugar production to fall 15.6% to 9.5 MMT. Lower Thai output would reduce available export supply and could tighten the global market. This is particularly important if production declines occur simultaneously in Brazil, India or other major producing regions. Brazil Sugar Production Remains a Key Risk Brazil remains the dominant producer in the global sugar market. Unica reported that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 MMT. Lower Brazilian production provides an important bullish signal, particularly given the country's enormous influence on global exports. However, Brazil's mills also have the flexibility to allocate cane between sugar and ethanol. Higher energy prices can encourage greater ethanol production, potentially reducing the amount of cane processed into sugar. Conversely, weaker crude oil prices can reduce the relative attractiveness of ethanol production and encourage mills to produce more sugar. That relationship is particularly important for the outlook after Monday's sharp decline in crude oil. El Niño Adds Weather Risk Weather remains one of the most important long-term variables for sugar. A strong El Niño pattern can disrupt rainfall across major producing regions including Brazil, India and Thailand. Reduced rainfall could negatively affect sugar cane production and reinforce expectations of a global deficit. However, weather forecasts remain inherently uncertain and the ultimate impact depends on the timing, duration and geographical distribution of rainfall. Traders will therefore continue to monitor weather developments alongside crop estimates rather than relying on a single seasonal forecast. USDA Presents a Different Global Picture The USDA's latest biannual outlook provides a somewhat different perspective from the more aggressive deficit forecasts issued by some private analysts. The USDA expects global 2026/27 sugar production to decline 6.5% year-on-year to 184.854 MMT, compared with 186.056 MMT in 2025/26. At the same time, global human consumption is expected to increase 0.4% to a record 179.991 MMT. The USDA nevertheless forecasts global ending stocks to increase 2% to 44.410 MMT. This suggests that, despite lower production and record consumption, the USDA does not currently expect the same degree of immediate supply tightness projected by some private analysts. Bullish Sentiment 1. Global Deficit Forecasts Are Increasing The ISO expects a 200,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27, while StoneX forecasts a significantly larger 1.7 MMT deficit. 2. Thailand Production Could Fall Sharply Thailand's sugar production is forecast to decline between approximately 15.6% and 17%, potentially reducing global export availability. 3. Brazilian Production Has Weakened Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell 26.3% year-on-year, providing a significant supply-side support factor. 4. Indian Weather Remains Concerning Cumulative Indian monsoon rainfall remains 15% below normal, increasing uncertainty around future sugar cane yields. 5. India Has Opened the Door to Imports India's decision to allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes highlights potential domestic supply constraints. Bearish Sentiment 1. Physical Deliveries Were Extremely Large The expired October London contract received 499,350 MT of deliveries, up 91% year-on-year, raising concerns about weak physical demand. 2. Speculative Long Positions Are Elevated Funds held 161,342 net-long NY sugar positions, the highest level in almost three years, increasing the potential for long liquidation. 3. USDA Still Forecasts Higher Ending Stocks The USDA expects 2026/27 global ending stocks to increase 2% to 44.410 MMT. 4. India's Production Could Recover The USDA forecasts Indian 2026/27 production at 33.6 MMT, up 12% year-on-year, which could offset production losses elsewhere. 5. Crude Oil Has Fallen Sharply Lower crude oil prices can reduce the incentive for Brazilian mills to divert cane toward ethanol, potentially increasing sugar production. Sugar Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching NY sugar closed Monday at 17.52 cents per pound, recovering after falling to a three-and-a-half-week low. The immediate technical and fundamental question is whether the recovery represents renewed demand or simply short covering following the recent decline. The strongest bullish arguments are centred on potential global production deficits, weaker Brazilian output, Thai production risks and uncertain Indian weather. The main bearish risks are large physical deliveries, elevated speculative long positioning, potentially higher Indian production and increased Brazilian sugar availability if lower energy prices favour sugar over ethanol. The key market map is: Bullish: Global deficit forecasts → weaker Brazil/Thailand output → Indian weather risks → potential supply tightening Bearish: Large physical deliveries → weak demand → elevated fund positioning → potential long liquidation → higher available production Sugar Supply Outlook The global sugar market is moving toward a potentially tighter supply environment, but the timing remains uncertain. The ISO expects the market to shift from a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26 to a 200,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27. StoneX sees a considerably larger deficit, while Czarnikow expects the supply shortfall to become even more pronounced in 2027/28. At the same time, USDA forecasts show that global ending stocks could actually rise during 2026/27. This divergence is central to the sugar market. If production losses in Brazil, India and Thailand are greater than currently expected, deficit forecasts could increase further. If weather improves and production estimates recover, the market could retain more supply than the current bullish forecasts imply. Sugar Demand Remains the Critical Test Supply concerns alone may not be sufficient to sustain a prolonged rally. The large October London contract delivery highlights the importance of physical demand. The market therefore needs evidence that consumption and import demand can absorb available supply. China, India and other major consuming countries will remain important, while global refining and ethanol economics will influence the allocation of sugar cane between competing uses. Sugar Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Sugar enters the latest session with a mixed fundamental backdrop. NY Sugar #11 recovered 0.69%, while London White Sugar declined 0.26%. The stronger Brazilian real helped support New York prices, but the market remains under pressure from concerns about physical demand. The longer-term picture is more constructive in several private forecasts, with the ISO, StoneX, Covrig and Czarnikow all identifying potential future deficits. However, USDA projections remain less aggressive, forecasting higher global ending stocks in 2026/27. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by Brazilian export activity, currency movements, Indian weather, Thai production estimates, crude oil prices, physical demand and speculative positioning. Currency Hedger View Sugar is a globally traded commodity with prices influenced by Brazilian currency movements, energy markets, weather, international trade and global demand. For businesses involved in agricultural commodities, food production or international trade, currency volatility can materially affect transaction costs and margins. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between commodities, currencies, interest rates, inflation, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments to help businesses understand international currency exposure. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account: For businesses making international payments or operating across agricultural and commodity supply chains, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account: For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Today Markets View Sugar prices remain caught between near-term demand weakness and longer-term supply risks. October NY Sugar #11 recovered to 17.52 cents per pound, while December London White Sugar settled at approximately $503.20 per tonne. The market's recent decline has been reinforced by the unusually large 499,350 MT delivery against the expired October London contract, suggesting that physical demand and available supply remain important concerns. However, the longer-term supply picture is becoming more uncertain. Brazilian production has weakened, Thailand is expected to produce substantially less sugar, Indian monsoon rainfall remains below normal and several major industry forecasts now point toward a global deficit in 2026/27 and beyond. The major disagreement is over the scale of that tightening. The ISO forecasts a 200,000-tonne deficit, StoneX expects 1.7 MMT, while USDA forecasts rising global ending stocks. This leaves sugar traders balancing two competing narratives: Bullish: Production risks in Brazil, India and Thailand → potential global deficit → tighter export availability Bearish: Large physical deliveries → weak demand → elevated fund positioning → potential long liquidation The next major catalysts are Brazilian production and exports, the Brazilian real, Indian monsoon conditions, Thai crop estimates, global physical demand and crude oil prices. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Disclaimer: This market analysis is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, trading or other professional advice. Octalas Group Ltd provides this content on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. Market prices can move rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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September 22, 2026

Cotton Futures Rally as US-China Trade Hopes Boost Market Risk Appetite

Cotton futures rallied strongly across the board on Monday as traders returned to the market with increased risk appetite ahead of this week's US-China meeting. Contracts closed 110 to 247 points higher, led by the front months. October 2026 cotton gained 247 points to 79.85 cents per pound, while December futures advanced 227 points to 83.42 cents. March 2027 cotton rose 229 points to 86.08 cents. The rally came despite a stronger US Dollar Index and another sharp decline in crude oil prices, with crude falling $4.81 per barrel during the session. The latest US crop data showed that 65% of the US cotton crop had bolls opening by September 20, while 13% had been harvested. Crop conditions deteriorated, with only 34% rated good to excellent, down two percentage points from the previous week. Meanwhile, traders increased risk exposure ahead of the latest US-China discussions, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meeting Chinese counterparts over the weekend in preparation for this week's meeting between the countries' leaders. Cotton Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalOctober 2026 Cotton79.85¢/lbStrongly higherOctober Change+247 pointsBullishDecember 2026 Cotton83.42¢/lbHigherDecember Change+227 pointsStrong gainMarch 2027 Cotton86.08¢/lbHigherMarch Change+229 pointsBullishUS Cotton Bolls Opening65%Crop progressingUS Cotton Harvest13% completeEarly harvestCrop Good/Excellent34%Down 2 pointsBrugler500 Index295Down 1 pointThe Seam Sales2,496 bales77.26¢/lbCotlook A Index92.30¢/lbDown 205 pointsICE Certified Stocks35,748 balesDown 869 balesAdjusted World Price68.92¢/lbDown 59 pointsCrude Oil-$4.81LowerUS Dollar Index+0.255Dollar firmer Cotton Prices Today: Futures Surge Across the Board Cotton futures posted substantial gains on Monday, with all major contracts moving higher. October cotton climbed 247 points to 79.85 cents per pound, while December futures gained 227 points to 83.42 cents. March 2027 cotton advanced 229 points to 86.08 cents. The front-month strength suggests that buying interest was particularly strong in the nearby contracts. The rally occurred despite two traditionally challenging factors for commodities: a stronger US Dollar and lower crude oil prices. This indicates that traders were placing greater emphasis on US-China trade developments and the condition of the US cotton crop. US-China Trade Talks Put Cotton Demand in Focus US-China relations remain an important factor for the cotton market because China is a major participant in global textile and cotton markets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese counterparts over the weekend ahead of this week's meeting between the countries' leaders. The meetings have encouraged traders to increase risk exposure in anticipation of potentially improved trade relations. For cotton, any reduction in trade tensions could improve the outlook for international agricultural and textile demand. However, the market will need actual evidence of stronger Chinese purchasing activity before the trade optimism can be considered a sustained demand catalyst. The coming discussions therefore represent an important short-term event risk for cotton prices. US Cotton Crop Progress Remains Important The latest Crop Progress report showed that 65% of the US cotton crop had bolls opening by September 20. Harvest had reached 13% complete. The crop is therefore moving through the final stages of development and into the harvest period. The transition toward harvest is important because the market will increasingly focus on actual production rather than crop development alone. Weather conditions during the final stages of the growing season can still affect yields and fibre quality. US Cotton Conditions Deteriorate US cotton crop conditions weakened during the latest reporting week. Only 34% of the crop was rated good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from the previous week. The Brugler500 index also declined by one point to 295. The deterioration provides some support to the supply-side argument because weaker crop conditions can increase uncertainty surrounding final production. However, crop condition ratings are only one part of the production picture. With 13% of the crop already harvested, actual yield results will become increasingly important as the season progresses. Physical Cotton Market Remains Under Pressure The physical cotton market provided mixed signals. The Seam reported sales of 2,496 bales on Friday, with an average sale price of 77.26 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index, meanwhile, declined 205 points to 92.30 cents per pound on September 18. The difference between futures and physical-market indicators is worth monitoring. Cotton futures rallied sharply on Monday, while the Cotlook A Index had recently weakened. This suggests that financial-market positioning and expectations surrounding trade developments are currently playing an important role in futures pricing. ICE Certified Cotton Stocks Decline ICE certified cotton stocks declined by 869 bales on September 18, leaving certified inventories at 35,748 bales. Lower certified stocks can provide some support to nearby futures by reducing immediately deliverable exchange stocks. However, the level of certified stocks needs to be considered alongside broader US production, exports and global inventories. The market will therefore continue monitoring certified stock movements as the harvest progresses. Adjusted World Price Moves Lower The Adjusted World Price declined 59 points to 68.92 cents per pound during the latest reporting period. The AWP provides another reference point for the US cotton market and reflects international price conditions relative to US cotton. The decline indicates that international pricing conditions remain under some pressure despite Monday's futures rally. This reinforces the importance of distinguishing between speculative futures positioning and underlying physical-market conditions. Crude Oil Falls Sharply Crude oil declined $4.81 per barrel on Monday. Lower oil prices can influence cotton through several channels. Energy costs affect transportation, agricultural production and synthetic-fibre competition. At the same time, weaker crude prices can reduce broader commodity-market inflation pressures and alter investor positioning across commodity markets. The fact that cotton rallied strongly despite the sharp decline in crude suggests that Monday's move was driven primarily by cotton-specific and trade-related factors rather than a broad energy-led commodity rally. Stronger US Dollar Creates a Headwind The US Dollar Index increased 0.255 points on Monday. A stronger Dollar can create pressure on dollar-denominated commodities because it makes US-origin commodities relatively more expensive for international buyers using other currencies. Cotton therefore faces a currency headwind even as futures prices rise. If the Dollar continues strengthening, it could eventually limit export competitiveness and put pressure on international demand. However, expectations surrounding US-China trade developments currently appear to be offsetting some of that pressure. Bullish Sentiment 1. Cotton Futures Posted Broad Gains October cotton jumped 247 points, while December and March futures gained more than 220 points, demonstrating strong buying interest. 2. US-China Trade Discussions Could Support Demand Senior US and Chinese officials have been preparing for this week's meeting between the two countries' leaders, creating expectations for potentially improved trade relations. 3. US Crop Conditions Are Deteriorating Only 34% of the US crop is rated good to excellent, down two percentage points, potentially increasing uncertainty around final production. 4. ICE Certified Stocks Are Declining Certified cotton inventories fell by 869 bales to 35,748 bales, reducing immediately deliverable exchange stocks. 5. Harvest Remains Relatively Early Only 13% of the US cotton crop has been harvested, leaving considerable uncertainty surrounding final yields and production. Bearish Sentiment 1. The US Dollar Is Firmer The Dollar Index rose 0.255 points, creating a potential headwind for US cotton exports and dollar-denominated commodity prices. 2. Crude Oil Fell Sharply Crude oil declined $4.81 per barrel, reducing broader commodity-market inflation support and potentially affecting synthetic-fibre economics. 3. Cotlook A Index Has Weakened The Cotlook A Index declined 205 points to 92.30 cents per pound, indicating softer physical-market pricing. 4. Adjusted World Price Declined The Adjusted World Price fell 59 points to 68.92 cents per pound, providing another indication of weaker international pricing conditions. 5. US Harvest Is Progressing With 13% already harvested, additional physical supplies will increasingly become available to the market. Cotton Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching October cotton closed at 79.85 cents per pound, after gaining 247 points on Monday. December cotton settled at 83.42 cents, while March 2027 reached 86.08 cents. The immediate focus will be whether the futures market can maintain Monday's strong momentum. The most important near-term catalyst is likely to be developments surrounding the US-China meeting. Stronger Chinese purchasing interest could provide additional demand support, while disappointing trade developments could remove some of the risk premium that entered the market on Monday. At the same time, traders will monitor US harvest progress and actual production results. The key fundamental map is therefore: Bullish: US-China trade optimism → potential stronger demand → deteriorating crop conditions → declining certified stocks Bearish: Stronger US Dollar → lower crude oil → weakening physical price indicators → accelerating US harvest Cotton Supply Versus Demand The cotton market is entering an increasingly important transition period. The US crop is moving toward harvest, with 13% already harvested and 65% showing opened bolls. At the same time, crop conditions have deteriorated. This creates uncertainty around the final size and quality of the US crop. On the demand side, US-China trade discussions could become an important catalyst. If improved relations result in stronger Chinese purchases, export demand could strengthen at a time when the US crop is entering the market. If demand does not improve, however, increasing physical availability could place greater pressure on futures. Global Cotton Demand Remains Critical Cotton demand depends heavily on the global textile industry and consumer spending. China's role remains particularly important because of its position within the global textile manufacturing and cotton supply chain. This makes the outcome of the latest US-China discussions significant for market sentiment. However, traders will need to distinguish between diplomatic optimism and actual cotton purchasing activity. Sustained gains would require evidence that stronger trade relations are translating into increased physical demand. Cotton Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Cotton begins the new week with strong futures momentum. October futures gained 247 points, while December and March advanced more than 220 points. The rally was supported by increased risk appetite ahead of US-China discussions and concerns surrounding US crop conditions. However, several countervailing factors remain. The US Dollar strengthened, crude oil declined sharply, and the Cotlook A Index recently fell by more than 200 points. Meanwhile, the US harvest is progressing and Brazilian and other global supply developments will remain important as the season advances. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by US-China trade developments, US harvest results, export demand and physical cotton prices. Currency Hedger View Cotton is a globally traded agricultural commodity, making its market particularly sensitive to currency movements, international trade, global textile demand and commodity-market conditions. For businesses involved in cotton production, manufacturing, importing or exporting, changes in exchange rates can affect transaction costs and international margins. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between commodities, currencies, interest rates, inflation, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments to help businesses understand the factors influencing international currency exposure. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account: For businesses making international payments or operating across agricultural and textile supply chains, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account: For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding: Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Cotton futures rallied strongly on Monday, with contracts closing 110 to 247 points higher as traders increased risk exposure ahead of this week's US-China meeting. October cotton gained 247 points to 79.85 cents per pound, while December rose 227 points to 83.42 cents and March 2027 advanced 229 points to 86.08 cents. The fundamental picture remains mixed. US crop conditions weakened, with only 34% of the crop rated good to excellent, while just 13% has been harvested. ICE certified stocks also declined to 35,748 bales. However, the physical market remains less supportive. The Cotlook A Index fell 205 points to 92.30 cents, while the Adjusted World Price declined 59 points to 68.92 cents. The stronger US Dollar and sharp decline in crude oil also provide potential headwinds. The major short-term catalyst is therefore the US-China meeting. If trade developments translate into stronger Chinese agricultural and textile demand, cotton could receive additional support. If expectations fail to translate into actual demand, the market could refocus on the accelerating US harvest and softer physical-market indicators. The key fundamental map remains: Bullish: US-China trade optimism → potential demand improvement → weaker crop conditions → declining certified stocks Bearish: Stronger Dollar → lower crude oil → weaker physical prices → increasing US harvest supply The next major catalysts are US-China trade developments, US cotton harvest progress, export demand and physical cotton prices. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 22, 2026

Live Cattle Futures Surge as Tight Placements and Strong Beef Prices Support Market

Live cattle futures rallied sharply on Monday, with contracts closing $3.87 to $5.95 higher as traders responded to tightening cattle supplies, strong wholesale beef prices and the latest US Cattle on Feed data. October 2026 live cattle settled at $220.950, up $5.025, while December futures gained $5.375 to $222.000. February 2027 live cattle advanced $5.750 to $223.100. Feeder cattle futures also posted substantial gains. September feeder cattle closed at $337.475, up $3.90, while October gained $6.75 to $330.250 and November advanced $8.10 to $326.100. The rally came despite relatively quiet cash trade at the beginning of the week, with feedlots still compiling showlists. Fundamentally, the cattle market continues to receive support from unusually tight placements. USDA's latest Cattle on Feed report showed August placements at just 1.617 million head, a record low for the month and 9.16% below last year. At the same time, wholesale beef prices strengthened significantly, with Choice boxed beef rising $4.41 to $376.35 per hundredweight. Cattle Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalOctober 2026 Live Cattle$220.950Strongly higherOctober Change+$5.025BullishDecember 2026 Live Cattle$222.000HigherDecember Change+$5.375BullishFebruary 2027 Live Cattle$223.100HigherFebruary Change+$5.750Strong gainSeptember 2026 Feeder Cattle$337.475HigherSeptember Change+$3.900BullishOctober 2026 Feeder Cattle$330.250HigherOctober Change+$6.750Strong gainNovember 2026 Feeder Cattle$326.100HigherNovember Change+$8.100Strong gainCME Feeder Cattle Index$339.05Down 67 centsAugust Placements1.617M headRecord lowAugust Placement Change-9.16% y/ySupply supportiveAugust Marketings1.519M head-3.31% y/ySeptember 1 On-Feed Inventory11.163M head+0.75% y/yChoice Boxed Beef$376.35+$4.41Select Boxed Beef$355.77+$2.51Monday Cattle Slaughter105,000 headBelow last yearUS Pasture Good/Excellent17%DeterioratingBrugler500 Pasture Index242Down 6 points Live Cattle Prices Today: Futures Surge Across the Curve Live cattle futures posted substantial gains on Monday as traders responded to evidence of tightening supply and stronger wholesale beef values. October live cattle rose $5.025 to $220.950. December gained $5.375 to $222.000, while February 2027 advanced $5.750 to $223.100. The strength across multiple contracts indicates that buying interest was not limited to the nearby delivery month. Feeder cattle also rallied sharply. October feeders gained $6.75, while November feeders climbed $8.10. The November contract therefore approached the daily limit of $10.75, although it did not quite reach it. Cattle on Feed Report Shows Tightening Supply One of the most important fundamental developments remains the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report. August placements were reported at only 1.617 million head. That was a record low for August and represented a decline of 9.16% from the same month last year. Lower placements mean fewer cattle are entering feedlots, potentially limiting the number of market-ready animals available later in the production cycle. August marketings were also lower, declining 3.31% year-on-year to 1.519 million head. September 1 cattle on feed inventory stood at 11.163 million head, only 0.75% above the same period last year. The relatively modest increase in total inventory, combined with sharply lower placements, provides an important supply-side factor for the cattle market. Lower Placements Could Support Future Cattle Prices The placement data are particularly significant because cattle placed into feedlots today generally require time before reaching market weight. A 9.16% year-on-year decline in August placements could therefore have implications for finished cattle supplies later in the production cycle. This does not necessarily translate into an immediate reduction in beef production because existing cattle inventories and feeding periods also influence slaughter numbers. However, sustained lower placements can eventually reduce the flow of market-ready cattle. That is one reason traders are closely monitoring the latest Cattle on Feed figures. Wholesale Beef Prices Strengthen Wholesale boxed beef prices provided another important source of support on Monday. Choice boxed beef increased $4.41 to $376.35 per hundredweight. Select boxed beef also advanced, rising $2.51 to $355.77. The strength in wholesale beef values indicates continued demand for beef products despite the elevated price environment. Higher boxed beef prices can improve packer economics and provide additional support to cash cattle negotiations if demand remains firm. Cash Cattle Trade Remains Quiet Despite the strong futures rally, cash cattle trading began the week relatively quietly. Feedlots were still compiling showlists, meaning the market had not yet established a clear weekly cash price. This makes the coming cash trade particularly important. If feedlots resist lower bids and packers require cattle to maintain slaughter schedules, cash prices could provide additional confirmation of the futures rally. Conversely, weaker cash trade could challenge some of Monday's futures momentum. US Cattle Slaughter Remains Below Last Year USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 105,000 head on Monday. That was: 2,000 head above last Monday 4,283 head below the same Monday last year The year-on-year decline reinforces the broader picture of constrained cattle availability. Lower slaughter does not automatically indicate weaker beef demand, particularly when boxed beef prices are rising. Instead, it can reflect the availability of market-ready cattle. With Choice beef prices moving higher while slaughter remains below last year's level, the supply-demand balance remains an important factor for the market. Feeder Cattle Rally as Supplies Tighten Feeder cattle futures also advanced sharply on Monday. September feeders closed at $337.475, up $3.90. October futures gained $6.75 to $330.250, while November rose $8.10 to $326.100. The October and November contracts approached the daily limit but stopped short. The CME Feeder Cattle Index, however, declined 67 cents on September 17 to $339.05. This divergence between the index and futures is worth monitoring. The futures market is currently pricing in a stronger outlook than the latest index reading alone would suggest, making subsequent cash and index movements important confirmation signals. Oklahoma City Feeder Market Shows Mixed Physical Demand The Monday Oklahoma City feeder cattle auction had an estimated 5,700 head available. Prices were mixed depending on weight and class. Heavier steers were approximately $4 higher, while lighter steers were around $4 lower. Heifers declined between $1 and $5. Steer calves were mixed, ranging from $5 higher to lower, while heifer calves fell approximately $5 to $10. The physical feeder market therefore does not show the same uniform strength seen in futures. That distinction will be important as traders assess whether the futures rally can be supported by actual cattle prices. Pasture Conditions Deteriorate The latest Crop Progress report showed only 17% of US pasture rated good to excellent. That was down 2 percentage points from the previous week. The Brugler500 pasture index also declined 6 points to 242. Poorer pasture conditions can increase feeding costs and affect decisions regarding cattle placement and grazing. The deterioration therefore adds another supply-side consideration to the market. However, the effect varies considerably by region and depends on feed availability and weather conditions. Bullish Sentiment 1. August Cattle Placements Fell to a Record Low Placements were only 1.617 million head, down 9.16% year-on-year and representing a record low for August. 2. On-Feed Inventory Is Only Slightly Above Last Year September 1 inventory was 11.163 million head, just 0.75% above last year, limiting the degree of additional supply available. 3. Wholesale Beef Prices Are Rising Choice boxed beef increased $4.41 to $376.35, while Select gained $2.51, showing strong wholesale pricing. 4. Cattle Slaughter Remains Below Last Year Monday slaughter was 4,283 head below the same day last year, reinforcing concerns about market-ready cattle availability. 5. Live and Feeder Futures Posted Broad Gains Live cattle gained as much as $5.75, while feeder cattle advanced as much as $8.10, reflecting strong buying interest. Bearish Sentiment 1. Cash Trade Has Not Yet Confirmed the Futures Rally Cash cattle trading remains quiet early in the week, with feedlots still compiling showlists. 2. US Corn and Feed Availability Remain Important Lower cattle placements can support prices, but feed costs and availability will continue to influence feedlot economics and marketing decisions. 3. Feeder Cattle Physical Prices Were Mixed The Oklahoma City auction showed weaker prices for several classes, including lighter steers and heifers. 4. Pasture Conditions Are Deteriorating Only 17% of US pasture was rated good to excellent, down two percentage points, while the Brugler500 index declined to 242. 5. The CME Feeder Index Recently Declined The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell 67 cents to $339.05, showing that physical-market indicators have not uniformly followed the strength in futures. Live Cattle Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching October live cattle closed at $220.950, up $5.025, while December settled at $222.000. The immediate focus will be on whether cash cattle prices follow the futures market higher. The strongest fundamental support comes from the combination of record-low August placements, relatively stable total feedlot inventories, lower slaughter and stronger boxed beef prices. However, the physical feeder market remains mixed and cash cattle trade has yet to develop. The key market map is therefore: Bullish: Lower placements → tighter future supplies → stronger boxed beef → reduced slaughter availability Bearish: Quiet cash trade → mixed feeder prices → deteriorating pasture conditions → potential resistance from packers Cattle Supply Tightness Remains Central The latest Cattle on Feed data suggest that the supply side remains one of the most important drivers of the cattle market. August placements were down more than 9% year-on-year, reaching the lowest August level on record. At the same time, September 1 inventories were only marginally higher than last year. This combination suggests that the market does not have a substantial increase in feedlot inventory available to offset the decline in new placements. The effect is particularly important further down the production cycle. If lower placements persist, the number of finished cattle available for slaughter could become increasingly constrained. Beef Demand Provides Additional Support The wholesale market is also providing support. Choice boxed beef increased by more than $4 per hundredweight on Monday, while Select prices also moved higher. This indicates that beef values remain firm despite elevated cattle prices. The relationship between boxed beef prices and cash cattle prices will be important in the coming sessions. If wholesale demand remains strong, packers may need to pay more for cattle to maintain slaughter volumes. However, packer margins and consumer demand will ultimately determine how much higher cattle prices can move. Feeder Cattle Market Remains Volatile Feeder cattle futures were particularly strong on Monday. October futures rose $6.75, while November gained $8.10. The physical Oklahoma City market was more mixed, however. Heavier steers gained around $4, while lighter steers declined by approximately $4. Heifers were also lower. This difference between futures and physical feeder markets means traders will be watching upcoming auction results closely for confirmation of the strength currently reflected in futures. Cattle Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The cattle market begins the new week with strong futures momentum and several supportive fundamental factors. The latest USDA report showed record-low August placements, while wholesale beef prices moved substantially higher. Slaughter remains below last year's level, while total on-feed inventory is only marginally above the previous year. Against that backdrop, the market has a strong reason to remain focused on supply availability. However, Monday's physical feeder auction showed mixed results and cash cattle trading has not yet established a weekly direction. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by cash cattle prices, boxed beef values, slaughter levels and additional information regarding feedlot supplies. Currency Hedger View The cattle market is influenced by a combination of feed costs, commodity prices, consumer demand, international trade and currency movements. For businesses involved in international agricultural trade, fluctuations in the US Dollar can affect the cost of livestock, feed, meat products and cross-border transactions. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between commodities, currencies, interest rates, inflation, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments to help businesses understand the factors influencing international currency exposure. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account: For businesses making international payments or operating across agricultural supply chains, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account: For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding: Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Live cattle futures surged on Monday, with contracts closing $3.87 to $5.95 higher, while feeder cattle futures advanced as much as $8.10. The fundamental backdrop remains heavily influenced by tight cattle supplies. USDA's latest Cattle on Feed report showed August placements at a record-low 1.617 million head, down 9.16% from last year, while September 1 on-feed inventory was only 0.75% higher than the previous year. Wholesale beef prices also strengthened, with Choice boxed beef rising $4.41 to $376.35 and Select gaining $2.51 to $355.77. At the same time, Monday cattle slaughter was 4,283 head below the same day last year, reinforcing the importance of available market-ready cattle. The main counterweight is the physical market. Cash cattle trading remains quiet, while the Oklahoma City feeder auction produced mixed results and the CME Feeder Cattle Index recently declined. The market therefore enters the coming sessions with strong futures momentum but important confirmation still required from cash cattle and feeder markets. The key fundamental map remains: Bullish: Record-low placements → tighter cattle supplies → strong boxed beef prices → lower slaughter Bearish: Quiet cash trade → mixed feeder prices → deteriorating pasture conditions → potential packer resistance The next major catalysts are cash cattle trade, wholesale beef prices, cattle slaughter and the development of feedlot supply conditions. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 22, 2026

Corn Futures Rally as US Exports Surge and US-China Trade Hopes Build

Corn futures rallied strongly on Monday as money flowed back into the market ahead of this week's US-China meeting, with buyers increasing exposure across the futures curve. Corn contracts closed 3¼ to 15½ cents higher, led by the front months. December 2026 corn settled at $5.43 per bushel, up 15½ cents, while March 2027 gained 15¼ cents to $5.56¾. The national average cash corn price rose 15½ cents to $4.98¾. The latest US crop data provided a mixed but generally supportive backdrop. Approximately 58% of the US corn crop was mature as of September 20, while harvesting reached 13% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 11%. Crop conditions also improved, with 57% of the crop rated good to excellent, up one percentage point from the previous week. Export demand provided one of the strongest bullish signals. US corn shipments reached 1.938 million metric tons, or approximately 76.32 million bushels, during the week ending September 17. That was 24.9% higher than the previous week and 39.87% above the same week last year. Corn Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalDecember 2026 Corn$5.43BullishDecember Change+15½ centsStrong gainNearby Cash Corn$4.98¾+15½ centsMarch 2027 Corn$5.56¾HigherMarch Change+15¼ centsBullishMay 2027 Corn$5.63HigherMay Change+14¾ centsStrong gainUS Corn Mature58%Crop progressingUS Corn Harvest13% completeAhead of averageFive-Year Harvest Average11%Harvest aheadCrop Good/Excellent57%ImprovedBrugler500 Index347SteadyWeekly Corn Exports1.938 MMTStrong demandWeekly Change+24.9%BullishChange vs Same Week Last Year+39.87%Very strong2026/27 Marketing-Year Exports4.139 MMTStrongMarketing-Year Change+15.94% y/yBullishTop Export DestinationJapan591,923 MTBrazil First-Crop Planting27% completeAhead of last yearBrazil Planting Last Year25%Comparison Corn Prices Today: Futures Surge as Buyers Return Corn futures recorded a broad-based rally on Monday, with the strongest gains concentrated in the front months. December corn rose 15½ cents to $5.43, while March futures gained 15¼ cents to $5.56¾. May 2027 corn also advanced 14¾ cents to $5.63. The national average cash corn price climbed 15½ cents to $4.98¾. The strength reflects renewed buying interest ahead of this week's meeting between US and Chinese leaders. The latest export data also provided a strong fundamental reason for the rally, with weekly shipments almost 40% above the same week last year. US-China Trade Talks Put Corn Demand in Focus US-China relations are becoming increasingly important for agricultural markets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese counterparts over the weekend ahead of this week's meeting between the leaders of the two countries. For the corn market, the discussions are particularly important because stronger agricultural trade between the world's largest economies could support US export demand. The latest data already show strong US corn shipments. Japan was the largest destination during the latest reporting week, followed by Mexico and Colombia. If improved US-China relations result in increased Chinese purchases of US agricultural commodities, corn could receive additional demand support. However, the market will ultimately require actual purchasing commitments rather than expectations alone to sustain the current rally. US Corn Exports Deliver a Strong Demand Signal US corn export shipments reached 1.938 MMT, equivalent to approximately 76.32 million bushels, during the week ending September 17. That was: 24.9% above the previous week 39.87% above the same week last year Japan was the largest destination, taking 591,923 MT. Mexico followed with 540,979 MT, while Colombia received 259,441 MT. The cumulative export picture is also encouraging. Marketing-year exports for 2026/27 have reached 4.139 MMT, or approximately 162.93 million bushels. That is 15.94% above the same period last year. The combination of strong weekly shipments and higher cumulative exports provides an important demand-supportive backdrop for corn futures. Japan and Mexico Drive Current Export Demand Japan was the largest buyer in the latest weekly export data, taking almost 592,000 MT of US corn. Mexico was close behind at approximately 541,000 MT. Colombia accounted for another 259,441 MT. The broad distribution of demand is important because it shows that US corn exports are not dependent on a single destination. Nevertheless, China remains a major potential catalyst. Any increase in Chinese purchases of US corn following this week's diplomatic discussions could provide another source of export demand at a time when the US harvest is accelerating. US Corn Harvest Is Ahead of Average The US corn harvest reached 13% complete as of September 20. That compares with a five-year average of 11%. Approximately 58% of the crop was mature, meaning a substantial portion of the crop is moving toward harvest. A faster harvest can create seasonal pressure because additional physical supplies become available to the market. However, strong export demand can absorb some of that supply. The current situation therefore creates an important balance between increasing US availability and stronger international demand. US Corn Crop Conditions Improve US corn crop conditions improved slightly during the latest reporting week. The percentage of the crop rated good to excellent increased to 57%, up one percentage point. The Brugler500 index remained unchanged at 347. The improvement in crop ratings provides some reassurance regarding US production prospects. However, the market is increasingly shifting its attention away from crop condition ratings and toward actual harvested yields and export demand. With harvest already at 13%, the coming weeks should provide greater clarity regarding production levels. Brazilian Corn Planting Runs Ahead of Last Year Brazil's first corn crop is also progressing. AgRural estimated that planting had reached 27% complete as of Thursday, compared with 25% at the same point last year. The faster planting pace is an early indication of solid progress in Brazil. However, it is still relatively early in the South American production cycle. Weather conditions, planted area and eventual yields will determine the scale of Brazilian production and the amount of corn available for international markets. A strong Brazilian crop could eventually increase global export competition, particularly if US prices remain elevated. Corn Market Balances Strong Demand Against Rising Supply The corn market is currently being pulled in two directions. On the demand side, US exports are performing strongly. Weekly shipments increased almost 40% year-on-year, while cumulative marketing-year exports are nearly 16% above last year's level. On the supply side, the US harvest is already ahead of average and Brazilian planting is also progressing faster than last year. This creates a fundamental contest between strong export demand and expanding supply availability. The outcome of that balance will be particularly important as the US harvest accelerates through October. Bullish Sentiment 1. US Corn Exports Are Surging Weekly US corn shipments increased 39.87% from the same week last year, providing a strong signal of international demand. 2. Marketing-Year Exports Are Above Last Year Cumulative 2026/27 exports have reached 4.139 MMT, running 15.94% above the same period last year. 3. US-China Trade Discussions Could Support Demand US and Chinese officials are meeting ahead of discussions between the two countries' leaders, creating the possibility of stronger agricultural trade. 4. Corn Futures Posted Broad-Based Gains December, March and May futures all advanced by more than 14 cents, demonstrating strong buying across the futures curve. 5. Harvest Is Not Far Enough Advanced to Eliminate Supply Uncertainty Although the US harvest is ahead of average, only 13% of the crop has been harvested, meaning actual production results remain an important market variable. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Harvest Is Progressing Ahead of Average The US corn harvest is 13% complete, compared with an 11% five-year average, increasing physical availability. 2. Crop Conditions Improved The good-to-excellent rating increased to 57%, potentially supporting expectations for solid US production. 3. Brazilian Planting Is Ahead of Last Year Brazil's first corn crop is 27% planted, compared with 25% last year, indicating strong early progress. 4. Rising Supply Could Limit Price Gains As the US harvest accelerates, increasing physical availability could create pressure on nearby futures if demand does not keep pace. 5. US-China Trade Expectations Could Disappoint The market has increased exposure ahead of this week's US-China meeting. If agricultural trade developments fail to meet expectations, some of the recent risk premium could fade. Corn Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching December corn closed at $5.43, after gaining 15½ cents on Monday. The immediate focus is whether the market can maintain its upward momentum as traders assess US export demand and the progress of the US harvest. The strongest fundamental support currently comes from exports. Weekly shipments of 1.938 MMT were almost 40% above the same week last year, while cumulative exports are nearly 16% higher. The US-China meeting provides another potential catalyst. However, the market must also contend with increasing US physical supply as harvest progresses. The key fundamental map is therefore: Bullish: Strong exports → US-China trade optimism → potential additional agricultural demand Bearish: Faster US harvest → increasing physical availability → improving Brazilian supply prospects Corn Demand Versus Harvest Pressure The central issue for corn is whether export demand can keep pace with the increasing supply becoming available from the US harvest. With 13% of the crop already harvested, physical availability is rising. Normally, this can generate seasonal pressure on nearby futures. However, the latest export figures show that demand is currently strong enough to offset some of that pressure. Shipments of 1.938 MMT were significantly above both the previous week and the same week last year. If that pace continues, exporters could absorb a substantial portion of the new-crop supply entering the market. If export demand slows while harvest accelerates, the balance could shift toward greater supply pressure. US-China Trade Remains a Major Market Catalyst This week's US-China meeting could become an important short-term driver for corn. The market is already positioning for potentially stronger agricultural trade between the two countries. The latest US export data demonstrate that international demand is already strong, but additional Chinese purchases could provide another layer of support. The key issue will be whether diplomatic discussions translate into actual agricultural purchases. Until there is confirmation, the market remains sensitive to headlines from the negotiations. Brazilian Corn Supply Enters the Picture Brazil's first corn crop is progressing ahead of last year. Planting has reached 27%, compared with 25% at the same point last year. While the early pace is encouraging, the ultimate size of the Brazilian crop will depend on weather and yields over the coming months. Brazil is a major corn exporter, meaning a strong crop could eventually increase competition with US exporters. For now, however, the immediate market focus remains on US harvest progress and export demand. Corn Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Corn enters the new week with strong momentum after Monday's rally. The strongest fundamental factor is US export demand, with weekly shipments up 39.87% year-on-year and cumulative marketing-year exports 15.94% above last year's level. The US-China meeting provides another potentially important catalyst. At the same time, traders must monitor the accelerating US harvest and improving Brazilian planting progress. The coming sessions will therefore be driven by the interaction between export demand, US harvest results and US-China agricultural trade developments. Currency Hedger View Corn is a globally traded commodity, meaning its international price is closely connected to US Dollar movements, agricultural supply chains, global trade and geopolitical developments. For agricultural businesses importing or exporting corn, currency movements can materially affect the cost of international transactions. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between commodities, currencies, interest rates, inflation, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments to help businesses understand the factors influencing international currency exposure. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account: For businesses making international payments or purchasing agricultural commodities in foreign currencies, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account: For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding: Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Corn futures surged on Monday as buyers returned to the market ahead of this week's US-China meeting. December corn closed at $5.43, up 15½ cents, while March futures gained 15¼ cents to $5.56¾. The fundamental backdrop is supported by strong US export demand. Weekly shipments reached 1.938 MMT, up 24.9% from the previous week and 39.87% from the same week last year. Cumulative 2026/27 exports have reached 4.139 MMT, which is 15.94% above the same period last year. At the same time, the US harvest is progressing ahead of average, with 13% harvested compared with an 11% five-year average, while Brazil's first corn crop is 27% planted, ahead of last year's 25% pace. The market therefore faces a clear balance between strong export demand and increasing global supply availability. For the coming sessions, traders will focus on whether US export demand remains strong, whether US-China discussions produce additional agricultural trade and how quickly the US harvest progresses. The key fundamental map remains: Bullish: Strong US exports → US-China trade optimism → potential additional demand Bearish: Faster US harvest → increasing US supply → improving Brazilian production prospects The next major catalysts are US export data, US-China trade developments and US harvest progress. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Soybeans Rally as US Export Demand and US-China Trade Hopes Support Prices

Soybean futures rallied strongly on Monday as traders returned to the market with increased risk appetite, lifting prices across the complex. Front-month soybean futures closed 15 to 24 cents higher, while soybean meal and soybean oil also advanced. November 2026 soybeans settled at $13.28 per bushel, up 24½ cents, while January 2027 futures gained 24 cents to $13.44. March 2027 soybeans closed at $13.51¾, up 22¼ cents. The latest US crop data showed that 62% of the soybean crop had dropped leaves by September 20, while harvesting reached 12% complete, ahead of the five-year average pace of 8%. Export demand also provided a significant bullish signal. US soybean shipments reached 759,193 metric tons, or approximately 27.9 million bushels, during the latest reporting week, up 11.6% from the previous week and 34.2% above the same week last year. China was the largest destination, receiving 446,789 MT, reinforcing expectations that US-China trade developments could have a major influence on soybean prices. Soybean Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalNovember 2026 Soybeans$13.28BullishNovember Change+24½ centsStrong gainJanuary 2027 Soybeans$13.44HigherJanuary Change+24 centsStrong gainMarch 2027 Soybeans$13.51¾HigherMarch Change+22¼ centsBullishNearby Cash Beans$12.69¾+24½ centsSoybean Meal+$5.60 to +$12HigherSoybean Oil+44 to +63 pointsHigherSoybeans Dropping Leaves62%Crop progressingUS Soybean Harvest12% completeAhead of averageFive-Year Harvest Average8%Harvest aheadCrop Good/Excellent58%SteadyBrugler500 Index3521 point lowerWeekly Soybean Shipments759,193 MTStrongWeekly Change+11.6% w/wBullishChange vs Same Week Last Year+34.2% y/yStrong demandMarketing-Year Shipments36.848 MMTStrongMarketing-Year Change+1.8% y/yAbove last yearChina Shipments446,789 MTMajor demandBrazil Planting1.2% completeAhead of last year Soybean Prices Today: Futures Surge as Buyers Return Soybean futures experienced a broad-based rally on Monday as traders increased exposure to the market. November soybeans gained 24½ cents, settling at $13.28 per bushel. January futures rose 24 cents to $13.44, while March futures climbed 22¼ cents to $13.51¾. The strength extended beyond the soybean market itself. Soybean meal futures gained between $5.60 and $12 across the front months, while soybean oil advanced between 44 and 63 points. The simultaneous gains across beans, meal and oil indicate broad buying interest throughout the soybean complex. The main catalysts were stronger US export data and renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade discussions. US-China Trade Talks Put Soybeans Back in Focus US-China relations remain one of the most important variables for the soybean market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese counterparts over the weekend ahead of a meeting between the two countries' leaders later this week. The discussions have encouraged traders to increase exposure to agricultural commodities in anticipation of potentially improved trade relations. China is the world's largest soybean importer, meaning changes in Chinese purchasing patterns can have a substantial effect on US soybean export demand. The latest export data already provide evidence of strong Chinese participation. China purchased 446,789 MT of US soybeans during the latest reporting week, substantially more than any other destination. If US-China trade relations improve and Chinese purchases of US agricultural products increase, soybean export demand could receive additional support. However, the market remains dependent on the actual outcome of the discussions rather than expectations alone. US Soybean Exports Provide Strong Bullish Signal US soybean export inspections were particularly encouraging. Shipments totalled 759,193 MT, equivalent to approximately 27.9 million bushels, during the week ending September 17. That represented an 11.6% increase from the previous week and a substantial 34.2% increase from the same week last year. China accounted for 446,789 MT, while Mexico received 68,773 MT and the Netherlands took 59,652 MT. The cumulative picture is also improving. Marketing-year soybean shipments have now reached 36.848 million metric tons, or approximately 1.354 billion bushels. That is 1.8% above the same period last year. The combination of strong weekly shipments and a positive year-on-year cumulative figure provides a significantly more supportive demand backdrop than the market has seen in some recent agricultural reports. China Remains the Critical Soybean Buyer China's role in the latest export figures is particularly important. The country accounted for approximately 446,789 MT of shipments during the latest reporting week, making it the dominant destination. The timing is also significant because US and Chinese officials are holding discussions ahead of a meeting between the countries' leaders. A reduction in trade tensions could encourage Chinese buyers to increase purchases from the US. That would provide support to both export volumes and soybean futures. However, Chinese sourcing decisions also depend on price competitiveness, South American availability, currency movements and domestic demand. The market will therefore be watching actual purchase commitments rather than relying solely on diplomatic headlines. US Soybean Harvest Is Running Ahead of Average The latest USDA Crop Progress report showed that 12% of the US soybean crop had been harvested by September 20. That compares with a five-year average of only 8%. The harvest is therefore progressing ahead of the normal seasonal pace. A faster harvest can have mixed implications for the market. On one hand, the availability of freshly harvested soybeans can increase physical supply and potentially pressure nearby prices. On the other hand, rapid harvest progress reduces uncertainty surrounding production and allows exporters and processors to access new supplies. With export demand currently strong, the additional availability from the US harvest could be absorbed by the market if Chinese and other international purchases remain elevated. US Soybean Crop Conditions Remain Relatively Stable Approximately 62% of the US soybean crop had dropped leaves by September 20. Crop conditions were unchanged at 58% good to excellent. However, the Brugler500 index declined by one point to 352, reflecting a small deterioration in the distribution of crop condition ratings. The overall picture remains relatively stable. The market is now transitioning from concerns about crop development toward the actual harvest and yield results. The final production outcome will depend increasingly on harvested yields rather than weekly condition ratings. Brazilian Soybean Planting Begins Ahead of Last Year South American supply is also beginning to enter the market's focus. AgRural estimated that Brazilian soybean planting had reached 1.2% complete as of Thursday. That compares with only 0.9% at the same point last year. The early planting pace is therefore slightly ahead of last year's level. Brazil is one of the world's largest soybean producers and exporters, meaning the development of the Brazilian crop will become increasingly important as the Northern Hemisphere harvest progresses. Favourable planting conditions could eventually provide additional supply competition for US exporters. However, it is still extremely early in the Brazilian growing season, meaning weather developments over the coming months will remain critical. Soybean Prices Face Competing US and South American Supply Signals The soybean market is currently balancing strong US export demand against increasing availability from the US harvest and the beginning of Brazilian planting. The US harvest running at 12%, compared with an 8% five-year average, means new-crop supplies are entering the market faster than usual. At the same time, cumulative US soybean shipments are 1.8% above last year's pace. This creates an important tension. If export demand remains strong enough to absorb the additional US supply, futures could retain support. If South American production expectations increase and Chinese buyers shift more purchases toward Brazil later in the season, competition could increase for US exporters. Bullish Sentiment 1. US Soybean Exports Are Strong Weekly shipments increased 34.2% from the same week last year, providing a clear positive signal for export demand. 2. China Was the Largest Buyer China purchased 446,789 MT during the latest reporting week, highlighting continued importance of Chinese demand for US soybeans. 3. Cumulative Shipments Are Above Last Year Marketing-year shipments have reached 36.848 MMT, running 1.8% ahead of the same period last year. 4. US-China Trade Talks Could Improve Agricultural Demand US and Chinese officials are meeting ahead of discussions between the two countries' leaders, raising expectations for potentially stronger agricultural trade. 5. The Entire Soybean Complex Advanced Soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil all moved higher on Monday, demonstrating broad-based strength across the complex. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Harvest Is Ahead of Average The US soybean harvest is already 12% complete, compared with an 8% five-year average, increasing near-term physical availability. 2. Crop Conditions Remain Relatively Stable The crop remains at 58% good to excellent, meaning there is currently no major deterioration in US production expectations. 3. Brazilian Planting Is Ahead of Last Year Brazilian soybean planting has reached 1.2%, compared with 0.9% last year, indicating a strong start to the new South American production cycle. 4. South American Supply Could Increase Competition As Brazil's crop develops, expectations for another large South American harvest could eventually put pressure on US export demand. 5. Trade Expectations Could Disappoint The soybean rally is partly linked to expectations surrounding US-China discussions. If those talks fail to produce stronger agricultural purchasing commitments, some of the recently priced-in optimism could fade. Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The November soybean contract closed at $13.28, after gaining 24½ cents. The immediate focus is whether buyers can maintain momentum following Monday's sharp rally. The fundamental picture currently contains several supportive factors, particularly strong US exports and the possibility of improved US-China agricultural trade. However, the market is also entering a period of increasing physical availability as the US harvest accelerates. The key market map is therefore: Bullish: Strong US exports → Chinese demand → improved US-China trade expectations → stronger soybean prices Bearish: Faster US harvest → rising domestic availability → increasing South American competition → pressure on futures The next major confirmation will come from US export demand, the outcome of US-China discussions and the pace of the US harvest. Soybean Demand Versus Harvest Pressure The most important short-term question is whether export demand can continue absorbing the additional supply coming from the US harvest. With 12% of the crop already harvested, physical soybean availability is increasing. Normally, this can create seasonal pressure on nearby futures. However, the latest export data show that international demand remains strong. Shipments of 759,193 MT were more than one-third higher than the same week last year, while cumulative marketing-year shipments are already 1.8% above last year's level. China's participation is particularly important. If Chinese purchases accelerate following this week's diplomatic discussions, export demand could offset some of the seasonal pressure created by the US harvest. If purchases instead slow or shift toward South American suppliers, the market could become more sensitive to increasing US availability. South American Supply Becomes Increasingly Important Brazilian planting has only just begun, but the early pace is already ahead of last year. AgRural's estimate of 1.2% planted, compared with 0.9% last year, provides an early indication of favourable progress. However, planting progress alone does not determine the size of the Brazilian crop. Weather conditions through the growing season will remain the critical factor. As the Brazilian crop develops, traders will increasingly compare South American production prospects with US export demand. A large Brazilian crop could provide additional global supply and increase competition for Chinese soybean demand. Soybean Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions Soybeans enter the new week with a stronger fundamental backdrop following Monday's broad rally. The combination of strong US exports, substantial Chinese purchases and expectations surrounding US-China trade discussions has encouraged traders to put risk back into the market. At the same time, the US harvest is progressing faster than average and Brazilian planting has started ahead of last year's pace. This means the market remains highly sensitive to new information. The next US export reports will be particularly important. Continued shipments above last year's pace would reinforce the demand argument, while weaker Chinese buying could reduce some of the current support. The outcome of the US-China discussions will also be closely watched because agricultural purchases are a major component of the wider trade relationship. Currency Hedger View Soybeans remain closely connected to global trade, agricultural supply chains, commodity prices and currency movements. For international agricultural businesses, changes in the US Dollar can directly affect the cost of soybean purchases, exports and cross-border payments. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between commodities, currencies, interest rates, inflation, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments to help businesses understand the factors influencing international currency exposure. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account: For businesses making international payments or purchasing agricultural commodities in foreign currencies, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account: For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding: Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Soybean futures rallied sharply on Monday as traders returned to the market with increased risk appetite. November soybeans closed at $13.28, up 24½ cents, while January futures gained 24 cents to $13.44. The fundamental backdrop is currently mixed but contains significant demand support. US soybean shipments reached 759,193 MT, up 34.2% from the same week last year, while cumulative marketing-year shipments have reached 36.848 MMT, 1.8% above last year's pace. China accounted for 446,789 MT of the latest weekly shipments, making US-China trade developments particularly important. At the same time, the US harvest is progressing quickly, with 12% already harvested compared with an 8% five-year average, while Brazilian soybean planting has reached 1.2%, slightly ahead of last year's pace. The market therefore faces a clear balance between strong export demand and increasing global supply prospects. For the coming sessions, traders will focus on whether strong Chinese demand continues, whether US-China discussions lead to additional agricultural purchases and whether the accelerating US harvest begins to create greater physical supply pressure. The key fundamental map remains: Bullish: Strong US exports → Chinese demand → US-China trade optimism Bearish: Faster US harvest → rising US availability → expanding South American supply prospects The next major market catalysts are US export inspections, US-China trade developments and the continued progress of the US and Brazilian soybean crops. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 22, 2026

Wheat Prices Rise as Black Sea Tensions Support Markets

Wheat futures moved higher across all three major US exchanges on Monday as tensions surrounding the Black Sea failed to ease over the weekend, keeping concerns about global grain supplies and export flows in focus. Chicago SRW wheat futures gained between 5 ¾ and 12 ¾ cents, while KC HRW futures advanced 4 to 10 ¾ cents. Minneapolis spring wheat also strengthened, rising between 4 ½ and 5 ¾ cents. The December 2026 CBOT wheat contract settled at $7.26¾ per bushel, up 12½ cents, while March 2027 CBOT wheat closed at $7.42¾, up 12¾ cents. The December KC HRW contract finished at $7.94½, up 10¾ cents, while December Minneapolis wheat settled at $7.46½, up 4¼ cents. Despite the price gains, US export demand remains a significant concern. Weekly wheat shipments fell sharply from the previous week and remain substantially below last year's pace, creating a fundamental counterweight to the geopolitical supply risks supporting prices. Wheat Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalDecember CBOT Wheat$7.26¾BullishDecember CBOT Change+12½ centsStrong daily gainMarch CBOT Wheat$7.42¾HigherMarch CBOT Change+12¾ centsStrong daily gainDecember KC HRW$7.94½HigherDecember KC HRW Change+10¾ centsBullishDecember Minneapolis Wheat$7.46½HigherDecember Minneapolis Change+4¼ centsModerate gainUS Spring Wheat Harvest96% completeNear completionWinter Wheat Planting17% complete4 points behind 5-year averageWinter Wheat Emergence2%Early stageWeekly Wheat Shipments335,253 MTLowerWeekly Shipment Change-29.12% w/wBearish demand signalShipments vs Same Week Last YearNearly one-third lowerWeak exportsMarketing-Year Shipments6.028 MMTBelow last yearMarketing-Year Change-31.49% y/yBearish demand signalLargest Weekly DestinationMexico98,954 MTVietnam Shipments66,023 MTKey destinationPhilippines Shipments65,069 MTKey destination Wheat Prices Today: Futures Rise Across All Three Exchanges The wheat complex started the week on firm footing, with CBOT, KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat futures all posting gains. The strongest move came from Chicago SRW wheat, where the December contract climbed 12½ cents to $7.26¾. March CBOT wheat gained even more, rising 12¾ cents to $7.42¾. KC HRW wheat also recorded substantial gains, with December futures closing at $7.94½, up 10¾ cents. The broad-based advance indicates that the market is responding to developments affecting the wider wheat complex rather than a move isolated to a single production region. The immediate catalyst was continued uncertainty surrounding the Black Sea, where traders remain concerned about the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on grain production, exports and shipping routes. Black Sea Tensions Support Wheat Prices The Black Sea remains one of the most important regions for global wheat supply. Continued geopolitical tension creates uncertainty around export infrastructure, shipping routes and the ability of major exporters to maintain uninterrupted grain flows. When traders perceive an increased risk to Black Sea exports, wheat futures can receive a risk premium as markets attempt to price the possibility of tighter international availability. That risk premium provided support on Monday. However, the direction of wheat prices will depend on whether the geopolitical situation results in actual disruptions to exports or remains primarily a risk to future supply. A sustained disruption would provide a stronger fundamental argument for higher prices, while continued exports could eventually reduce some of the geopolitical premium. US Spring Wheat Harvest Nears Completion The latest US Crop Progress data showed that 96% of the US spring wheat crop had been harvested by Sunday. The pace was broadly in line with the average. With harvesting now approaching completion, the market's attention will gradually shift away from the spring wheat harvest and toward winter wheat planting conditions and the next stage of the US growing cycle. The near-complete harvest provides greater visibility over production, although weather and planting conditions remain important for the next crop. Winter Wheat Planting Falls Behind the Five-Year Average The US winter wheat planting campaign is developing more slowly. By Sunday, approximately 17% of the winter wheat crop had been planted, which was 4 percentage points behind the five-year average. Only 2% of the crop had emerged. The slower planting pace is not yet necessarily a major supply problem, but it is an important market variable because planting progress can influence expectations for next year's production. If planting delays persist or weather conditions become less favourable, traders could begin to price additional production risk into wheat futures. Conversely, a return to normal planting progress would reduce some of that concern. US Wheat Exports Remain a Major Bearish Factor While geopolitical concerns supported wheat futures, the US export data presented a very different picture. US wheat export inspections totalled 335,253 metric tons, equivalent to approximately 12.32 million bushels, during the week ending September 17. Shipments fell 29.12% from the previous week and were nearly one-third below the same week last year. The decline highlights continued weakness in US wheat export demand. Mexico was the largest destination, taking 98,954 MT, followed by Vietnam with 66,023 MT and the Philippines with 65,069 MT. The weakness becomes even more significant when looking at the cumulative marketing-year figure. US wheat shipments have now reached approximately 6.028 million metric tons, or 221.47 million bushels, but remain 31.49% below the same period last year. That substantial year-on-year decline represents one of the largest fundamental obstacles to a sustained wheat rally. Wheat Export Demand Could Limit Further Gains The wheat market therefore faces two opposing forces. On one side, geopolitical risk and concerns about Black Sea exports are increasing the risk premium attached to wheat. On the other, US export shipments are running substantially below last year's levels. This creates an important test for the market. If Black Sea disruptions intensify at the same time that global buyers increase purchases of US wheat, the combination could create a much stronger bullish fundamental environment. However, if Black Sea exports remain available and US export demand continues to underperform, higher futures prices could face resistance. The next export-inspection reports will therefore be important for determining whether the current price strength is being confirmed by physical demand. Global Wheat Supply Remains Sensitive to Geopolitical Risk Wheat is particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments because major exporting regions can influence global availability. The Black Sea remains central to the international wheat market, meaning any disruption to shipping, ports, infrastructure or agricultural production can have an immediate effect on futures pricing. Traders will therefore continue monitoring developments affecting Russia, Ukraine and other major Black Sea exporters. The market is also watching weather conditions in major producing countries as the Northern Hemisphere moves through the transition between the current harvest and the next planting cycle. Bullish Sentiment 1. Black Sea Tensions Remain Elevated Continued geopolitical uncertainty around the Black Sea is supporting a risk premium in wheat futures and raising concerns about potential disruption to grain exports. 2. All Three Major US Wheat Markets Advanced CBOT, KC HRW and Minneapolis wheat futures all closed higher on Monday, demonstrating broad-based strength across the wheat complex. 3. Winter Wheat Planting Is Behind Average US winter wheat planting was only 17% complete, 4 percentage points behind the five-year average, creating some concern over the development of the next crop. 4. Geopolitical Supply Risk Could Tighten Global Availability Any significant disruption to Black Sea production or exports could reduce global wheat availability and encourage additional buying of futures contracts. 5. CBOT Wheat Closed Near the Session Highs December CBOT wheat finished at $7.26¾, after gaining 12½ cents, indicating strong buying interest during Monday's session. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Wheat Exports Remain Weak Weekly export inspections fell 29.12% from the previous week, highlighting weak near-term demand for US wheat. 2. Marketing-Year Shipments Are 31.49% Below Last Year Cumulative US wheat shipments of 6.028 MMT remain substantially below the same period last year. 3. Spring Wheat Harvest Is Almost Complete With 96% of the US spring wheat crop harvested, uncertainty surrounding the current crop is declining. 4. Black Sea Risk Has Not Yet Produced a Confirmed Global Supply Shock Geopolitical concerns are supporting prices, but the longer-term effect will depend on whether actual export disruptions materialise. 5. Stronger Prices Could Encourage Additional Producer Selling If futures prices continue to rise, producers holding unpriced wheat may have greater incentive to lock in prices, potentially increasing available physical supply. Wheat Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate direction of wheat futures will depend on the balance between Black Sea geopolitical risk and weak US export demand. The December CBOT contract closed at $7.26¾, while March futures settled at $7.42¾. The market will be watching whether Monday's gains attract follow-through buying during the next sessions. Continued strength would keep the recent highs in focus and could encourage traders to price a greater geopolitical risk premium into wheat. However, a failure to extend the rally could expose the market to profit-taking, particularly if upcoming US export data remain weak. The key fundamental map is therefore: Bullish: Black Sea disruption → tighter global availability → stronger import demand → higher wheat prices Bearish: Weak US exports → ample availability → reduced demand for US wheat → pressure on futures US Wheat Export Demand Is the Key Fundamental Test The most important counterweight to the current rally is US export performance. Shipments of 335,253 MT during the latest reporting week were significantly below both the previous week and the same period last year. The cumulative deficit of 31.49% versus last year suggests that US wheat remains under pressure from international competition and relatively weak buying interest. For the rally to become more fundamentally supported, traders will want to see evidence that international buyers are returning to the US market. Mexico, Vietnam and the Philippines were the three largest destinations during the latest week, but overall volumes remain below last year's levels. Future export-inspection reports will therefore provide an important confirmation signal. Wheat Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions The wheat market enters the new week with a clear conflict between supply-risk concerns and weak demand data. The Black Sea remains the primary geopolitical variable. Any escalation affecting grain production, ports or shipping routes could quickly increase the value of wheat's risk premium. At the same time, the US crop is progressing through harvest and planting stages, while export demand remains substantially weaker than last year. This means wheat prices may remain highly sensitive to new headlines. The market will also monitor winter wheat planting progress closely. If planting continues to lag the five-year average, concerns about next year's crop could provide additional support. If planting accelerates toward normal levels, some of that supply concern could fade. Currency Hedger View Wheat remains an important commodity for businesses exposed to food costs, agricultural inputs, international trade and currency fluctuations. Currency movements can significantly affect the local cost of internationally traded agricultural commodities, particularly for importers and businesses purchasing wheat in US Dollars. Currency Hedger monitors the relationship between commodity prices, interest rates, central-bank policy, inflation, currencies and geopolitical developments to help businesses understand the broader factors influencing international payments and currency exposure. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account: For businesses making international payments or purchasing commodities in foreign currencies, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account: For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding: Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Wheat futures began the week on a firm footing, with CBOT, KC HRW and Minneapolis wheat all closing higher as Black Sea geopolitical tensions continued to support supply-risk premiums. December CBOT wheat closed at $7.26¾, up 12½ cents, while March futures gained 12¾ cents to $7.42¾. However, the fundamental picture remains mixed. US spring wheat harvesting is now 96% complete, while winter wheat planting is running 4 percentage points behind the five-year average at 17%. The more significant concern for the bulls is US export demand. Weekly shipments of 335,253 MT were down 29.12% from the previous week, while cumulative marketing-year shipments of 6.028 MMT are 31.49% below last year's pace. The market therefore has two competing forces. Supply risk: Black Sea tensions and slower winter wheat planting. Demand risk: Weak US export shipments and substantial year-on-year declines. For the coming sessions, traders will be watching whether geopolitical concerns continue to generate enough buying interest to overcome the weakness in US export demand. The key fundamental map remains: Bullish: Black Sea tensions → export disruption risk → tighter global supply Bearish: Weak US exports → ample availability → reduced US demand The next major confirmation will come from US export inspections and winter wheat planting progress, while developments around Black Sea grain flows remain the most important geopolitical variable for wheat prices. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 21, 2026

Chart of the Day: European Gas (NATGAS.EU) below 80 EUR, but Goldman Sachs warns of 105 EUR/MWh.

In the European gas market (Dutch TTF benchmark), we are observing a sharp sell-off today, with prices falling below the key level of 80 EUR/MWh. Recently, we have seen a strong correlation with oil prices, linked to shared concerns over Middle Eastern supply and rising demand in Asia for both oil and gas. Today, despite local calm, an analysis of market fundamentals and the latest forecasts from investment bank Goldman Sachs indicate that the European fuel market is entering the heating season on highly volatile ground. European gas leads today's declines in the commodities market, following crude oil prices. Source: XTB Why is gas falling today and what is the link to oil? Today's drop in natural gas prices on the TTF exchange shows a strong correlation with the situation in the broader energy commodities market, including crude oil. Common trade risk denominator: Oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) share key logistical hubs, primarily the Strait of Hormuz. Any reports concerning supply continuity or military actions in the Middle East immediately translate into the pricing of risk premiums in both assets. A temporary easing of sentiment in the oil market directly leads to reduced buying pressure on gas contracts. Although official data indicates a significant drop in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, other data shows that over the past week, Saudi Arabia was able to transport up to 3 million bpd through the strait. The phenomenon of backwardation and withholding purchases: In the futures market, a discount structure is present (spot prices are higher than future prices). Analysts point out that European importers are intentionally withholding part of their purchases in hopes of further price declines, fearing to buy fuel at local peaks. The huge gap between current prices and summer prices does not encourage restocking. Buying at high prices now means selling at a loss later. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Market fundamentals in Europe: Low storage levels and the flight of US LNG While investors react to news headlines, hard market data from September 2026 points to a growing supply deficit in Europe. EU storage fill level: According to data as of September 21, 2026, European gas storage facilities are filled at 69.4%. This level is significantly lower than the 5-year average for this period (85.1%) and lower than the level recorded in the same period of 2025 (81.6%). Outflow of LNG volumes to Asia and Egypt: For the first time in a while, less than 42% of US LNG exports headed to Europe (down from over 50% a month earlier). American suppliers redirected cargoes to Asia due to a higher price premium on the JKM index ($17.33/MMBtu vs $13.19/MMBtu on TTF) and to Egypt, which imported a record 1.06 million tons of fuel. Storage capacity levels are significantly lower than the 5-year average and last year's levels. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Goldman Sachs warns: Base case and extreme risk scenario Goldman Sachs issued a report warning that the gas market is currently pricing in a "two-sided game" dependent on the functionality of sea routes in the Persian Gulf. Base Case Scenario Target TTF price: approx. 70 EUR/MWh (~25 USD/MMBtu) by the end of the year. Assumptions: Gradual normalization of LNG transport through the Strait of Hormuz and moderate winter weather conditions. Bull Case Scenario (Extreme Risk) Target TTF price: 105 EUR/MWh (~35 USD/MMBtu). Assumptions: Continued blockades or disruptions in Persian Gulf LNG exports under average winter weather conditions. Demand Destruction Mechanism Goldman Sachs estimates that crossing the threshold of 30 USD/MMBtu (approx. 88–90 EUR/MWh) will trigger a sharp drop in industrial demand. In Asia (e.g., India), industry will begin curtailing gas consumption, and in China, a massive switch from gas to cheaper coal will occur. At the moment, gas withdrawals from European storage systems are running below the 5-year average. Hope for European consumers lies in a delayed start to the heating season, as occurred during strong El Niño years like 2015 and 2023. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Macroeconomic Pressure and the ECB An increase in TTF prices toward the projected 105 EUR/MWh would immediately translate into higher energy costs for European industry and households. This could spark a second wave of inflation, forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to reconsider interest rate hikes. Summary and Technical Analysis The current price pullbacks on the TTF exchange are purely tactical and technical in nature. The fundamental supply-demand balance in Europe remains tight due to lower storage inventories (69.4%) and price competition for LNG cargoes with the Asian market. From a technical standpoint, European gas remains in a clear uptrend that pushed prices from around 40 in the second half of June up to the 84.47 area, where a local peak formed. We are currently observing a correction of this dynamic move, with the price retracing to 75.82 toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 73.95. This is the first significant test for buyers following the recent bullish wave. The structure still favors the bulls. Quotes remain above both key moving averages—the SMA25 at 72.77 and the rising SMA50 at 65.66, with the moving averages aligned in a classic bullish trend. Importantly, the 23.6% retracement zone nearly coincides with the SMA25, creating double support between 72.80 and 73.95. Defending this area would signal that this is merely a breather before another attempt at the highs. Holding this support opens the door to retesting the 84.47 barrier, and breaking above it would continue the move north. An alternative scenario activates only upon a sustained break below 72.77, which would turn attention toward the 38.2% retracement at 67.44, reinforced by the SMA50 at 65.66. However, as long as price holds above the moving average cluster, the bulls maintain the advantage, with energy supply disruptions acting as the fundamental fuel for further gains.

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Banks

September 21, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ rate check limits yen downside – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen initially weakened sharply after the latest BoJ policy update, with USD/JPY briefly above 158.00 before retreating towards 157.00. Reports of a BoJ rate check signalled readiness to intervene, capping near-term Yen weakness as USD/JPY approaches 160.00. MUFG sees a “new phase” of policy consistent with rate hikes roughly every three months, with external factors like higher US yields and energy prices still pressuring the Yen. BoJ signals limited yen weakness tolerance "The yen initially weakened sharply after the BoJ’s latest policy update on Friday resulting in USD/JPY hitting a high of 158.05 but has since dropped back towards the 157.00." "The trigger for the yen rebound late on Friday were reports that the BoJ had conducted a rate check during the New York trading session sending a clear signal that they are prepared to intervene again if the yen continues to weaken." "The rate check should help to dampen market expectations for how much the yen will be allowed to weaken in the near-term as USD/JPY moves closer to the 160.00-level." "We believe that the “new phase” for monetary policy is consistent with a rate hike every three months." "The combination of higher energy prices and widening yield spreads is making it more difficult for Japanese policymakers to prevent a weaker yen, and increasing pressure to intervene again to buy more time."

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Banks

September 21, 2026

US Dollar: Post-FOMC gains face higher hurdle – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has held a firmer tone after the FOMC’s 25 bp hike and a higher rate path, supported by elevated US Treasury yields. However, he stresses that further USD upside now likely requires another leg higher in yields or stronger US data, with key resistance around 100.32–100.60 and support near 99.90–99.20 guiding near-term price action. Fed repricing lifts Dollar but cautiously "For now, the Fed’s renewed tightening bias and still-elevated UST yields should keep some support under the USD. But after the repricing last week, the hurdle for another meaningful leg higher may be higher. Further gains may increasingly require another move up in yields or firmer US data that reinforce expectations for additional tightening." "This week, US PMIs and Fed communication could matter for whether the post-FOMC USD rebound has further room to run." "DXY last closed at 100.22 levels. Daily momentum is bullish though recent rise in RSI showed signs of moderation near overbought conditions." "Last Fri’s price pattern showed that the push higher is losing some conviction around resistance – consistent with near term upside fatigue but short of calling it a reversal. We should continue to watch price action if any bearish follow-through plays out." "Resistance at 100.32 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 100.60. Support at 99.90 levels (50, 100 DMAs), 99.4 (38.2% fibo, 21 DMA) and 99.2 levels (200 DMA)."

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Banks

September 21, 2026

Euro: Downside risks persist despite ECB hike call – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole explains that despite political noise in Germany and an additional ECB hike now expected in December, ING keeps its EUR/USD profile unchanged with a 1.160 year-end target. He sees similar front-end pricing for EUR and USD, expects dovish repricing on lower energy prices, but highlights mostly downside risks for EUR/USD this week, especially if Brent rises and Fed hike odds increase. ECB shift but profile unchanged "Alongside our Fed call, we’ve changed our ECB forecast and now expect another hike in December. However, we’ve kept our EUR/USD profile unchanged, still targeting 1.160 for year-end. The main reason is that EUR and USD front-end swaps – the most relevant for FX – look quite similar." "There are 33-37bp priced in by year-end and 80-90bp by July. Since we see only one more hike by both central banks this year and then a prolonged pause, the dovish repricing should be similar in size. That is often associated with a slightly higher EUR/USD as lower USD rates tend to have a positive knock-on effect on global risk sentiment." "Incidentally, we expect that repricing to happen on the back of lower energy prices, also a EUR/USD positive." "For this week, we still see mostly downside risks for EUR/USD, though. A retest of the 1.1320-30 lows from June looks premature and is not supported by our short-term fair value model. Nevertheless, it would become a realistic scenario if Brent moves back towards $110/bbl and markets increase pricing for an October Fed hike."

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Markets

September 21, 2026

The Week Ahead: Fuel Prices, Bond Markets and PMI Data in Focus

Financial markets enter the final weeks of the third quarter with uncertainty and volatility still elevated, although a decline in oil prices and renewed optimism surrounding US-China engagement have provided some relief to equities at the start of the week. Brent crude has fallen back toward $101.70 a barrel, while European shares and US equity futures opened higher on Monday as investors responded to easing oil prices and expectations for further diplomatic engagement. Global bond markets have also shown signs of stabilisation after a prolonged period of rising yields, although the average 10-year yield across G7 economies remains around its highest level since 2008. The key issue for financial markets this week is whether lower crude prices can translate into lower refined fuel costs and ultimately reduce inflation pressure. At the same time, investors will monitor sovereign bond markets, UK public finances, global PMI surveys and a busy schedule of Federal Reserve speakers for clues about how far interest rates may need to remain restrictive. The Week Ahead Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalBrent CrudeAround $101.70Lower oil pricesBrent Weekly Move-3% last weekEasing energy pressureUS 10-Year YieldAround 4.96%ElevatedG7 10-Year Yield AverageAround 4.2%Highest since 2008UK Public Borrowing ForecastAround £15.7bnFiscal pressureUK Public DebtAround 94% of GDPElevatedUK Composite PMI Forecast52.3ExpansionUK Services PMI Forecast52.1ExpansionUK Manufacturing PMI Forecast52.7ExpansionUS Composite PMI Forecast55.2ExpansionUS Manufacturing PMI Forecast53.6ExpansionUS Services PMI Forecast56.0ExpansionFed Policy Rate3.75%-4.00%RestrictiveKey Equity DriverAI / technologySupportiveMain Market RiskSovereign bond yieldsVolatility risk Oil Prices Fall as Markets Monitor Middle East Diplomacy Brent crude began the week lower, extending a decline that saw prices fall approximately 3% last week. The latest weakness has been associated with expectations that diplomatic efforts could reduce the disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Brent has remained above $100 a barrel, however, meaning energy prices continue to represent a significant inflation risk for the global economy. The decline in crude prices has nevertheless provided immediate relief for equity markets. Lower oil prices can reduce expectations for headline inflation and lessen pressure on central banks to maintain or increase interest rates. However, crude oil is only part of the inflation equation. The performance of refined products such as diesel and petrol is becoming increasingly important because these prices feed directly into household and business costs. Why Diesel and Petrol Prices Matter for Bond Markets The relationship between energy prices and sovereign bonds is becoming increasingly important. Higher fuel prices can feed into consumer inflation, transportation costs, logistics expenses and industrial production. That can cause bond investors to demand higher yields if they believe inflation will remain elevated for longer. The result is particularly important for long-duration government bonds. Even if crude oil prices decline, persistent strength in diesel, petrol and other refined products could keep inflation expectations elevated. This creates a difficult environment for central banks because weaker economic growth would normally argue for easier policy, while persistent energy inflation could require interest rates to remain restrictive. For financial markets, therefore, refined fuel prices may provide an important signal about the future direction of inflation and bond yields. Sovereign Bond Markets Remain Under Pressure Government bonds remain one of the most important areas of financial-market risk. Global bond yields have experienced a prolonged period of upward pressure, with investors reassessing inflation, government borrowing requirements and the outlook for monetary policy. The average 10-year government bond yield across G7 economies has reached around 4.2%, its highest level since 2008. The Federal Reserve's latest rate increase has not eliminated concerns about future inflation. Instead, investors are now assessing whether higher energy prices and resilient economic growth could force central banks to maintain restrictive policy for longer. This makes upcoming economic data particularly important. If PMIs remain strong while energy prices stay elevated, bond markets could face renewed pressure from expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. UK Gilts Face Fiscal Test Ahead of the Budget The UK government bond market enters an important period with investors monitoring public borrowing and the country's broader fiscal position. UK public-sector net borrowing data are due on Tuesday, with the latest market calendar showing expectations of approximately £15.7 billion for August. The figure will be closely watched because stronger-than-expected borrowing could increase concerns about the supply of government debt and the sustainability of public finances. UK government debt remains around 94% of GDP, leaving fiscal developments particularly relevant to the Gilt market. The Bank of England's decision to slow the pace of quantitative tightening has also changed the market backdrop. The question for investors is whether reduced central-bank selling pressure can provide lasting support for long-dated Gilts, or whether fiscal and inflation concerns remain the dominant drivers of yields. If long-term UK yields continue to rise despite a slower QT programme, attention could increasingly shift toward inflation expectations, government borrowing and the broader fiscal outlook. French Bond Markets Add to European Fiscal Concerns French sovereign bonds have also experienced renewed pressure. Recent increases in French yields have highlighted concerns surrounding fiscal policy and government borrowing requirements within the euro area. The wider European bond market is therefore dealing with several competing forces. On one side, lower oil prices could reduce inflation pressure. On the other, elevated government debt levels and continued uncertainty over fiscal policy could keep risk premiums higher. This means European sovereign bonds remain sensitive to both inflation data and political developments surrounding national budgets. Why Are Equities Remaining Resilient? Equity markets have shown greater resilience than sovereign bonds despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. US and Asian equity markets were among the stronger performers last week, while the VIX declined. Technology and semiconductor stocks have continued to provide support to US equities, with the artificial-intelligence investment theme remaining an important driver of market sentiment. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained approximately 1.5% last week, highlighting the continued strength of semiconductor-related equities despite concerns about the sustainability of AI investment. Monday's market action has reinforced this trend, with European stocks rising and US futures pointing higher as lower oil prices and renewed US-China engagement improved sentiment. However, equity-market resilience remains dependent on earnings growth and the continued willingness of investors to maintain exposure to technology stocks. If bond yields rise sharply again, higher discount rates could eventually place greater pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. Geopolitical Risks Continue to Threaten Energy Markets Energy markets remain highly exposed to geopolitical developments. Attacks affecting Saudi energy infrastructure have disrupted some crude shipments to European refiners, while Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly affected Russian refining capacity. Reuters reported that half of Russia's six largest diesel-producing refineries had significantly reduced or halted production during September following drone attacks. Further attacks on Russian refining infrastructure have added to concerns over global refined-fuel availability. Saudi Arabia has also experienced disruptions following attacks on energy infrastructure, with Aramco reportedly telling some European refining customers that they would receive no crude deliveries in October. This combination means the energy market remains vulnerable even as crude oil prices decline. A further escalation could reverse the recent fall in oil prices and put renewed pressure on inflation expectations and sovereign bonds. US-China Talks Could Influence Global Risk Sentiment Markets are also watching high-level US-China engagement this week. President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, while officials from both countries have already been holding preparatory discussions. Investors are watching for progress on trade, technology, artificial intelligence and broader economic relations. Any reduction in trade tensions could support global risk sentiment, industrial commodities and equity markets. Conversely, renewed disagreement over trade, technology or geopolitical issues could increase volatility across currencies, commodities and equities. The market reaction will therefore depend not simply on whether discussions take place, but on whether investors see tangible progress. UK Public Finances in Focus on Tuesday The UK public-sector finances report will be one of the week's most important domestic economic releases. The market currently expects August public-sector net borrowing of approximately £15.7 billion. A larger-than-expected deficit could increase concerns about future government borrowing requirements and potentially put additional upward pressure on longer-dated Gilt yields. A smaller deficit would provide some relief to the bond market, particularly if accompanied by evidence that government finances are stabilising. The data will therefore have implications beyond the UK fiscal outlook. Higher Gilt yields can influence mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs and the relative attractiveness of Sterling-denominated assets. Global PMI Data Take Centre Stage Flash PMI data will provide one of the clearest real-time indicators of economic activity this week. The UK, euro area and US will all publish September PMI figures. Current forecasts show the UK composite PMI around 52.3, with services at 52.1 and manufacturing at 52.7. US forecasts point to a composite PMI of 55.2, services at 56.0 and manufacturing at 53.6. The figures will be important because markets are attempting to determine whether economic activity remains resilient despite elevated energy prices and restrictive monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected PMI could reinforce expectations that interest rates need to remain higher for longer. A significant deterioration could instead increase expectations that economic weakness will eventually require monetary easing. Federal Reserve Speakers Return to the Market The Federal Reserve will remain a major focus after last week's 25-basis-point rate increase, which lifted the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak during the week, including policymakers such as Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Philip Jefferson, Thomas Barkin and Michelle Bowman. Investors will be listening carefully for indications about whether additional tightening remains likely. The central question is whether inflation remains sufficiently persistent to justify further increases, particularly with energy prices still elevated. Fed commentary could therefore influence: US Treasury yields → US Dollar → equities → gold → commodities The impact could be particularly strong if officials provide materially different assessments of inflation risks or the future policy path. Wednesday's PMI Data Could Move GBP/USD Sterling enters the week after a difficult period, with GBP/USD having fallen sharply last week. The UK PMI data will therefore be particularly important. If the figures show continued resilience in business activity, investors could reassess expectations for the UK economy and Bank of England policy. A weaker set of PMI figures could have the opposite effect by reinforcing concerns about slowing growth. The market calendar shows the UK flash PMI releases scheduled for Wednesday, alongside the US and German PMI reports. GBP/USD will consequently remain sensitive to the relative performance of UK and US economic data. Bullish Sentiment 1. Lower Oil Prices Could Ease Inflation Pressure Brent crude has fallen for several consecutive sessions and is now around $101.70, reducing some of the immediate inflation pressure created by the energy market. 2. Equity Markets Remain Resilient European equities and US futures opened higher on Monday, while technology and semiconductor stocks continue to benefit from strong AI-related investment expectations. 3. US-China Engagement Could Improve Risk Sentiment The planned Trump-Xi meeting has created expectations for progress on trade and technology discussions, potentially supporting global risk appetite. 4. Strong PMI Data Could Support Risk Assets If September PMI surveys confirm continued economic expansion, markets could interpret the data as evidence that global economies remain more resilient than previously expected. 5. Lower Bond-Market Stress Could Support Equities A sustained decline in government bond yields would reduce the discount-rate pressure facing equities, particularly growth and technology stocks. Bearish Sentiment 1. Refined Fuel Prices Remain Elevated Even with crude oil falling, disruptions to refining capacity and fuel supplies could keep diesel and petrol prices elevated and maintain inflation pressure. 2. Sovereign Bond Yields Remain High The G7 10-year yield average remains around its highest level since 2008, leaving bond markets vulnerable to renewed inflation and fiscal concerns. 3. UK Borrowing Could Increase Gilt Pressure A larger-than-expected UK borrowing figure could reinforce concerns about government debt issuance and push longer-dated Gilt yields higher. 4. Geopolitical Escalation Could Reverse the Oil Decline Further attacks against energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Russia or elsewhere could quickly tighten refined-product supplies and send crude prices higher again. 5. Further Fed Tightening Could Pressure Risk Assets If Fed officials signal that additional rate increases remain necessary, US Treasury yields and the Dollar could rise while higher discount rates weigh on equities. The Week Ahead: What Traders Are Watching The main market variables for the week can be summarised as: Energy: Brent crude around $101-$102 Bonds: US 10-year yield around 4.96% UK: Public-sector borrowing on Tuesday PMIs: UK, eurozone and US flash data on Wednesday Fed: Multiple policymakers speaking throughout the week Geopolitics: Middle East energy infrastructure and Russia-Ukraine attacks US-China: Trump-Xi engagement and trade/technology discussions Equities: AI and semiconductor stocks versus rising bond yields The interaction between these factors will determine whether the recent improvement in equity sentiment can continue. Oil Prices and Bond Yields Remain Closely Connected The relationship between energy markets and sovereign bonds will remain particularly important. If crude and refined fuel prices continue falling, inflation expectations could moderate and bond markets could stabilise. If refined-product prices remain elevated despite weaker crude prices, however, investors may continue demanding higher yields to compensate for inflation risks. This distinction could become increasingly important as central banks assess whether recent energy inflation is temporary or becoming embedded within broader price pressures. Currency Markets Face a Busy Week Foreign-exchange markets are also likely to experience significant volatility. The US Dollar remains supported by expectations of restrictive Federal Reserve policy, while Sterling faces an important test from UK economic data. The Japanese Yen remains sensitive to intervention concerns and Bank of Japan policy expectations, while commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars could react strongly to changes in global risk sentiment and China-related developments. The US-China summit is therefore particularly relevant for the broader FX market because changes in trade expectations can influence the Dollar, Yuan, Australian Dollar and other Asia-Pacific currencies simultaneously. Currency Hedger View The week ahead highlights the increasingly close relationship between energy prices, interest rates, sovereign bonds and foreign-exchange markets. For businesses and individuals with international currency exposure, the direction of interest rates and inflation can materially influence the cost of future international payments. Currency Hedger monitors central-bank policy, inflation, interest rates, commodities, geopolitical developments and currency markets to help clients understand the factors influencing FX markets. The current environment is particularly important for companies exposed to USD, GBP, EUR and commodity-linked currencies, as movements in energy prices can quickly alter inflation expectations and interest-rate expectations. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account: For businesses receiving or making international payments, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around changing market conditions. Personal Account: For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Business & Personal Onboarding: Currency Hedger Onboarding — currencyhedger.numito.com/onboarding Today Markets View The week ahead is dominated by the interaction between fuel prices, sovereign bond yields, inflation expectations and central-bank policy. The recent decline in Brent crude toward $101.70 has provided some relief to equity markets and helped reduce immediate concerns about further inflation acceleration. However, the broader energy market remains vulnerable because disruptions to Russian and Saudi refining and export infrastructure continue to create supply risks. For the bond market, the key question is whether lower oil prices can translate into lower inflation expectations. The answer will depend heavily on refined fuel prices, economic activity and upcoming PMI data. The UK public-sector finances on Tuesday will provide an important test for the Gilt market, while global PMI data on Wednesday will offer a real-time assessment of economic resilience. At the same time, a busy schedule of Federal Reserve speakers could influence expectations for additional US rate increases. The key market map for the week is therefore: Bullish for risk: Lower oil prices → softer inflation expectations → lower yields → stronger equities Bearish for risk: Higher refined fuel prices → persistent inflation → higher yields → tighter financial conditions Key economic events: UK borrowing → Global PMIs → Fed speakers Key geopolitical risks: Middle East energy infrastructure → Russia-Ukraine attacks → US-China relations With markets entering the final weeks of Q3, investors will be watching whether the recent decline in oil prices develops into a broader easing of inflation and bond-market pressure, or whether geopolitical supply risks and resilient economic activity keep interest rates and sovereign yields elevated. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 21, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Above $66 as Fed Policy and Middle East Risks Drive the Outlook

Silver prices are consolidating around $66.35 per ounce at the start of the week after posting a strong recovery through the second half of last week. The white metal remains above its short-term trend support, but gains have paused as traders assess the Federal Reserve's renewed tightening cycle, changing expectations for inflation and developments surrounding the Middle East. Spot silver closed around $66.35 on Friday, after rising sharply from the week's low near $62.30. The September 18 session saw silver trade between approximately $65.35 and $67.34, highlighting the elevated volatility that continues to characterise the precious-metals market. The immediate macroeconomic focus is on the relationship between oil prices, inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. Brent crude fell to around $101.71 and WTI to approximately $98.15 on Monday as markets responded to renewed hopes for diplomatic progress involving the United States and Iran. Lower oil prices can reduce concerns about a prolonged inflation shock, potentially limiting expectations for aggressive monetary tightening and improving the relative appeal of non-yielding precious metals such as silver. However, the Federal Reserve remains a significant counterweight. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high across the US economy and is not simply the result of higher energy prices. He also supported the Fed's latest rate increase to 3.75%-4.00%. Silver therefore enters the week with competing fundamental forces: easing oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty can support precious metals, while persistent US inflation and expectations of additional Fed tightening can limit upside. Technically, the market remains constructive while silver holds above the 20-day EMA around $65.22. The next major upside hurdle is the August 28 high near $71.12. Silver Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Level / OutlookXAG/USD~$66.35Friday close~$66.35September weekly low~$62.30Immediate support$65.22Secondary support$63.00-$63.50Major psychological support$60.00Immediate resistance$67.27September resistance zone$67.30-$68.30Major resistance$71.1220-day EMA$65.22RSI~54Fed funds target3.75%-4.00%Brent crude~$101.71WTI crude~$98.15Primary themesFed policy, inflation, oil, geopolitics, industrial demand Silver Price Today: XAG/USD Consolidates Near $66.35 Silver is trading in a relatively tight range around $66.35, following a strong recovery from the mid-September sell-off. Market data shows that XAG/USD closed September 18 around $66.22, after reaching an intraday high above $67.30. The metal has therefore recovered a substantial portion of its earlier decline, but buyers have so far struggled to establish a sustained break above the upper-$67 area. The pause is understandable given the number of competing macroeconomic signals. Oil prices are falling, which reduces some of the immediate inflation pressure that previously supported expectations for higher interest rates. At the same time, Fed officials continue to warn that inflation remains too high. This leaves silver caught between a potentially supportive decline in inflation expectations and a still-restrictive US monetary-policy environment. Falling Oil Prices Reduce Inflation Pressure Oil prices have fallen for a fourth consecutive session as markets assess the possibility of diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Brent crude declined to around $101.71 per barrel, while WTI fell to approximately $98.15. Reuters reported that the decline followed renewed expectations for potential US-Iran diplomatic discussions. For precious metals, lower oil prices can have an important second-order effect. When energy prices fall, markets may reduce expectations for persistent inflation and therefore reduce the need for increasingly restrictive monetary policy. That can benefit silver because it reduces the relative disadvantage of holding an asset that does not generate interest. However, the relationship is not one-directional. If lower oil prices are interpreted as evidence of weaker global demand rather than simply easing supply-risk premiums, the resulting deterioration in economic expectations could weigh on silver's industrial-demand component. Fed Policy Remains a Major Silver Driver The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 3.75%-4.00% last week, resuming a tightening cycle after a lengthy period without an increase. This is important because higher interest rates generally increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Silver can therefore face pressure when Treasury yields and expectations for future Fed increases rise. Yet silver's recent price action demonstrates that the relationship is not mechanical. The metal advanced even as the Fed raised rates, with silver gaining around 3.1% for the week according to market coverage, while Friday's move alone was approximately 2.3%. This suggests that other factors — including precious-metal demand, geopolitical uncertainty and easing oil-price pressures — are currently offsetting some of the negative effect from tighter monetary policy. Kashkari Warns Inflation Remains Broad-Based Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has provided a clear indication that the central bank remains concerned about inflation. Kashkari said inflation is still too high across the US economy and stressed that price pressures extend beyond energy and food. He also pointed to resilient economic growth as an additional factor contributing to inflation. That message matters for silver because it reduces the likelihood that the market can simply assume the Fed will quickly reverse course. If inflation remains broad-based, the central bank may need to maintain restrictive policy for longer or consider additional rate increases. For silver, this creates a fundamental ceiling unless inflation expectations begin to ease without a significant deterioration in industrial demand. Middle East Developments Remain Important The Middle East remains another major source of volatility. Comments from US President Donald Trump regarding potential discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have increased expectations of possible diplomatic engagement, contributing to the decline in oil prices. A sustained improvement in the geopolitical situation could reduce the safe-haven premium embedded in precious metals. At the same time, a renewed escalation could have the opposite effect by increasing demand for defensive assets and raising concerns over energy supplies and inflation. Silver therefore remains sensitive to developments in both directions. Silver's Dual Role Supports the Longer-Term Fundamental Story Unlike gold, silver has an unusually strong industrial component. The metal is widely used in electronics, electrical applications, solar technology and other industrial processes. That means silver can benefit from stronger manufacturing and technology investment but can also be vulnerable to weaker global industrial activity. This dual role makes silver different from a pure monetary precious metal. When monetary conditions become more supportive, investment demand can lift silver. When industrial activity accelerates, physical demand can provide another source of support. But when interest rates rise aggressively at the same time as manufacturing activity deteriorates, silver can face pressure from both sides. Silver Technical Analysis The technical structure remains moderately constructive. XAG/USD is holding above the 20-day EMA around $65.22, while the RSI is near 54, indicating positive but not overbought momentum. FXStreet's technical analysis identifies the 20-day EMA as the immediate downside reference and the August 28 high at $71.12 as the major upside hurdle. Independent technical data places the current pivot around $66.32, with initial support near $65.30 and resistance near $67.27. The structure therefore creates a clearly defined short-term range. A move above $67.30 would strengthen the recovery and put the $68.30 region back into focus. A sustained break through $71.12 would represent a much more significant technical development because it would take silver above the late-August swing high. Conversely, a daily close below $65.22 would weaken the immediate bullish structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction. Bullish Sentiment 1. Silver Holds Above the 20-Day EMA The metal remains above the $65.22 20-day EMA, preserving its short-term constructive structure. As long as this level holds, buyers retain a technical platform from which to challenge higher resistance. 2. Falling Oil Prices Could Reduce Rate Pressure Brent and WTI have both fallen sharply as markets assess potential diplomatic developments. Lower energy prices could reduce inflation expectations and, over time, ease pressure for additional monetary tightening. That would improve the environment for non-yielding precious metals. 3. Silver Has Demonstrated Resilience Despite Fed Tightening Silver gained around 3.1% over the week despite the Federal Reserve raising rates. The ability to hold above $65 after the rate decision indicates that monetary tightening alone has not been sufficient to reverse the recent recovery. 4. Geopolitical Uncertainty Remains Even if oil prices decline, unresolved geopolitical risks can continue to support demand for precious metals. Any renewed escalation in the Middle East could increase safe-haven demand and simultaneously raise concerns about inflation and global supply chains. Bearish Sentiment 1. Persistent US Inflation Kashkari's comments indicate that inflation remains a broad-based concern rather than simply an energy-price problem. If inflation remains elevated, markets may continue pricing additional Fed tightening. 2. Higher Interest Rates Increase Silver's Opportunity Cost A Fed funds rate of 3.75%-4.00% makes interest-bearing assets relatively more attractive than non-yielding metals. Further increases in US yields could therefore put renewed pressure on silver. 3. Failure Below $67-$68 Silver has so far struggled to convert its recovery into a sustained break above the upper-$67 area. Failure to clear this resistance zone could encourage profit-taking and return the metal toward the $65.22 support region. 4. Industrial Demand Risk Silver's industrial exposure can become a disadvantage if global manufacturing and investment weaken. A deterioration in Chinese or global industrial activity would potentially reduce one of the key sources of physical silver demand. Silver Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate technical map is relatively clear. Bullish scenario: $67.27 — first resistance $68.30 — next upside area $69.50-$70.00 — psychological resistance zone $71.12 — August 28 high and major breakout level Above $71.12 — broader recovery structure strengthens Bearish scenario: $65.30 — immediate technical support $65.22 — 20-day EMA $63.50-$63.00 — recent consolidation/support region $62.30 — September low $60.00 — major psychological support The $65.22-$67.30 region is therefore the key short-term battlefield. A sustained move above $67.30 would improve the upside structure, while a break below $65.22 would indicate that bullish momentum is weakening. Silver Price Outlook: Fed Versus Inflation and Industrial Demand The fundamental outlook for silver remains dependent on whether the market focuses more heavily on monetary policy or on the combination of industrial demand, geopolitical uncertainty and falling oil prices. The Fed's renewed tightening cycle is clearly a headwind. However, silver's recent resilience suggests that investors are not treating higher interest rates as the only factor determining the metal's value. The interaction between US inflation and energy prices is particularly important. If oil continues falling, headline inflation pressure could ease. That could reduce expectations for additional tightening and support precious metals. If oil prices rebound sharply because of renewed Middle East disruption, the outcome becomes more complicated. Higher oil could increase demand for inflation hedges, but it could also force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy. Silver therefore remains highly sensitive to the direction of both variables. Silver and the US Dollar The US Dollar remains another important driver of XAG/USD. Because silver is priced in dollars, a stronger US currency generally makes the metal more expensive for international buyers and can create downward pressure. The dollar has recently remained relatively firm as markets reassess the Fed's policy trajectory. For silver to establish a sustained move above $67-$68, the market may therefore need either a stabilisation or decline in the dollar, lower US yield expectations, stronger commodity demand, or a combination of these factors. Conversely, renewed dollar strength alongside higher Treasury yields would increase the pressure on XAG/USD. Fundamental Outlook Silver enters the week with a mixed but closely balanced fundamental backdrop. The supportive factors include: Falling oil prices Potential easing in inflation expectations Strong recent silver demand Persistent geopolitical uncertainty Industrial applications Continued interest in precious metals The negative factors include: Fed tightening Broad-based US inflation Higher interest rates Potential US Dollar strength Uncertainty around global industrial demand This means the next major directional move is likely to depend on whether the market begins pricing a prolonged period of restrictive Fed policy or instead shifts toward expectations that lower energy prices will gradually ease inflation pressure. Today Markets View Silver begins the week around $66.35, consolidating after a strong recovery from the $62.30 September low. The technical structure remains constructive while XAG/USD holds above the $65.22 20-day EMA, with the $67.27-$68.30 area representing the first major upside test. The larger technical hurdle remains $71.12, the August 28 high. Fundamentally, the market remains divided. Falling oil prices are easing some inflation concerns, while potential diplomatic developments in the Middle East could reduce the energy-price shock. At the same time, Fed officials continue to emphasise that inflation remains too high and broad-based, keeping the possibility of additional monetary tightening in view. The key levels for traders are therefore $65.22 on the downside and $67.27-$68.30 on the upside. A sustained move through $71.12 would provide a more significant technical signal, while a daily close below the 20-day EMA would weaken the current recovery structure. For now, silver remains caught between Fed tightening, easing oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and industrial-demand expectations. The metal's ability to remain above $65 despite the latest Fed rate increase keeps the broader recovery structure intact, but a decisive break above $67-$68 is still required before the market can establish stronger upside momentum. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Disclaimer: This market analysis is provided for general informational and educational purposes only by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. It does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor is it a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Financial markets are subject to significant risk and prices can move rapidly in response to economic, geopolitical and market developments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances and risk tolerance before making any financial decision.

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Markets

September 21, 2026

Iron Ore Price Forecast: Iron Ore Rises Above CNY 715 as Chinese Mills Restock Ahead of Golden Week

Chinese iron ore futures climbed above CNY 715 per tonne on Monday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session as steel mills increased purchases ahead of China's extended National Day Golden Week holiday in early October. The recovery comes after iron ore recently traded near one-month lows, with pre-holiday restocking providing an important short-term demand catalyst. The improvement in sentiment is also linked to efforts by several Chinese steelmakers to reduce production and steel inventories as profitability deteriorates. While lower steel output normally represents a headwind for iron ore consumption, production cuts can reduce finished-steel inventories and potentially improve mill margins, creating a more sustainable demand environment if steel prices stabilise. However, the underlying iron ore fundamentals remain mixed. Inventories at China's 35 major ports increased by 840,000 tonnes week-on-week to 144.33 million tonnes as of September 18, reversing the earlier destocking trend. SMM data also showed that daily port departures declined slightly to around 3.21 million tonnes, while elevated seaborne shipments continued to feed additional supply into China. At the same time, China's steel industry remains under pressure. Steel mills are facing weak downstream demand and shrinking margins, while blast-furnace operating rates and hot-metal output have begun to soften as mills increase maintenance and production controls. Data for September 16 showed blast-furnace utilisation across 242 monitored mills at 88.93%, with daily hot-metal production falling by about 3,700 tonnes to approximately 2.399 million tonnes. The market is therefore balancing a short-term restocking cycle against a broader supply-demand picture in which iron ore inventories remain high and steelmaking profitability remains weak. Iron Ore Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market ViewIron Ore FuturesAbove CNY 715/tonneRecent DCE LowAround CNY 707.5Key SupportCNY 710Secondary SupportCNY 707.5Major SupportCNY 700First ResistanceCNY 718-720Major ResistanceCNY 730-74035-Port Inventory144.33 million tonnesWeekly Inventory Change+840,000 tonnesDaily Port DeparturesAround 3.21 million tonnesBlast-Furnace Operating Rate88.93%Daily Hot Metal OutputAround 2.399 million tonnesKey Demand CatalystPre-Golden Week restockingKey Supply HeadwindRising port inventoriesKey Steel RiskWeak mill profitability Iron Ore Price Today: CNY 715 Becomes the Key Short-Term Battleground Iron ore has recovered from its September lows, with the Dalian contract rebounding after reaching approximately CNY 707.5 earlier in the month. SMM data showed the most-active DCE contract at CNY 710.5 on September 17, compared with CNY 718 at the start of the previous week. The move above CNY 715 therefore represents a recovery from the recent correction rather than a confirmed change in the longer-term fundamental trend. The immediate question for traders is whether pre-holiday buying can carry prices through the CNY 718-720 region and toward CNY 730-740, or whether rising inventories and weak steel margins eventually pull prices back toward CNY 700-710. Trading activity has already responded to the approaching holiday. Seaborne iron-ore cargo trading volume surged 43% to 1.41 million tonnes on September 16, according to Trading Economics, as Chinese steelmakers increased purchases ahead of the National Day holiday. Golden Week Restocking Supports Near-Term Demand The approaching National Day holiday is one of the strongest short-term bullish factors for iron ore. China's Golden Week holiday begins in early October, and steelmakers traditionally build inventories ahead of periods when logistics and trading activity can be disrupted. This restocking demand is particularly important because it can temporarily offset weaker underlying steel consumption. SMM said pre-holiday stockpiling was providing support to iron ore prices, although it also noted that the recent rebound in port inventories meant the market was likely to consolidate rather than enter an unrestricted rally. The distinction is important. Restocking can lift iron ore prices even when final steel demand remains relatively weak. That makes the current rally potentially more dependent on inventory management than on a major improvement in China's construction or manufacturing demand. Chinese Steel Mills Are Cutting Production Several steelmakers have pledged to reduce production as profitability deteriorates. At first glance, lower steel production is bearish for iron ore because blast furnaces consume less raw material. But the market response is more complicated. If mills reduce output enough to stabilise steel inventories and prices, their margins could eventually improve. That could create a healthier demand environment for iron ore once production resumes. SMM reported that steel-mill losses had widened and maintenance-driven production cuts were accumulating, while demand during China's traditional September-October peak season remained weaker than expected. This creates a delicate balance: Lower steel output is negative for immediate iron-ore consumption, but successful production controls could improve the profitability of the steel sector. Steel Profitability Remains a Major Headwind The profitability of Chinese steel mills remains one of the most important variables for iron ore. Higher raw-material costs, particularly coking coal and coke, have increased pressure on steel margins, while downstream steel demand remains relatively subdued. SMM reported that the losses of blast-furnace mills had expanded and that higher coke costs were forcing mills to consider additional maintenance. This limits the ability of steelmakers to aggressively increase iron-ore purchases once the Golden Week restocking cycle ends. For iron ore to sustain a stronger rally beyond the holiday period, the market will likely need evidence that steel profitability is improving rather than simply that mills are rebuilding short-term inventories. Chinese Iron Ore Port Inventories Rise to 144.33 Million Tonnes The clearest bearish fundamental signal is the renewed increase in port inventories. SMM reported that inventories at China's 35 major ports rose 840,000 tonnes week-on-week to 144.33 million tonnes on September 18. The increase reversed the earlier destocking trend. The sequence is important. Inventories had fallen from 143.91 million tonnes on September 4 to 143.49 million tonnes on September 11, before increasing to 144.33 million tonnes one week later. That means the market is now receiving evidence that stronger seaborne supply is beginning to reach Chinese ports. If inventories continue increasing after the Golden Week restocking period, the bearish fundamental argument would become stronger. Seaborne Supply Is Increasing Supply from major exporters has also been rising. SMM data showed iron-ore departures from 123 ports increasing from 30.32 million tonnes in the week of August 28 to 34.45 million tonnes in the week of September 4 and then to 37.41 million tonnes in the week of September 11. That represented an increase of roughly 23% over two weeks. Arrivals at 61 Chinese ports also increased and remained elevated at around 26.91 million tonnes in the week of September 11. This supply flow is becoming increasingly important because it suggests the recent increase in inventories is not simply a temporary statistical move. Higher shipments combined with weak steel consumption could leave Chinese buyers with ample raw-material stocks after the holiday. Coking Coal Supply Could Reduce Cost Pressure The outlook for coking coal is another factor affecting iron ore. Following the fatal mine accident in Shanxi earlier this year, widespread safety inspections temporarily reduced domestic coking-coal production and tightened availability. Production has subsequently resumed at a number of mines, although the pace of recovery has varied. SMM reported in September that Shanxi mines were gradually resuming production, although actual supply releases remained limited and safety inspections continued to restrict output. A broader recovery in coking-coal supply during September and October could reduce raw-material cost pressure on steelmakers. That could have two opposing effects on iron ore. Lower coking-coal prices could improve steel margins, supporting steel production and eventually iron-ore demand. But if steel prices remain weak, cheaper coking coal could simply reduce input costs without generating a meaningful increase in output. China's Property Sector Remains a Structural Drag The property market remains a longer-term concern for Chinese steel demand. Recent Chinese data showed continued weakness in new-home prices, highlighting the prolonged pressure on the property sector. Trading Economics noted that the property downturn remains a drag on steel demand despite the short-term restocking cycle. This matters because construction is a major source of demand for long steel products and therefore indirectly influences iron-ore consumption. Government support measures and infrastructure investment can offset some of this weakness, but the current market has not yet demonstrated a broad-based acceleration in end-use steel demand. Steel Inventories Are Showing Some Improvement There is, however, a more constructive development within the Chinese steel market. Mysteel data showed inventories of the five major carbon-steel products held by traders fell 2% week-on-week to 18.5 million tonnes as of September 17. Rebar inventories fell 3.5%, while hot-rolled coil inventories declined 1.6%. This indicates that finished-steel inventories are being reduced even while iron-ore inventories are rebuilding. If this trend continues, it could eventually provide a better foundation for steel prices and mill margins. For iron ore, however, the key question is whether steel inventory reductions are being driven by genuine end-user demand or simply by lower production. Iron Ore Technical Analysis The technical picture is improving after the recovery from the CNY 707.5 area. The first important upside zone is CNY 718-720, followed by the broader CNY 730-740 range. A sustained break above CNY 720 would strengthen the recovery structure and put the September highs back into focus. On the downside, CNY 710 is the first area traders may watch, followed by CNY 707.5 and then the psychologically important CNY 700 region. Current market analysis from Guangzhou Futures places iron ore within a broader CNY 690-740 range and characterises the ferrous complex as facing relatively weak supply-demand conditions. That suggests the current move above CNY 715 should be viewed within a broader trading range rather than automatically treated as the beginning of a sustained trend. Bullish Sentiment 1. Pre-Golden Week Restocking Is Increasing Demand Chinese steelmakers are increasing purchases ahead of the extended National Day holiday, with seaborne cargo trading volumes jumping 43% in one recent session. 2. Steel Inventories Are Declining Trader inventories of major steel products declined 2% week-on-week, with particularly strong reductions in rebar and HRC inventories. 3. Production Cuts Could Stabilise Steel Prices Steel mills are cutting output as losses increase. If those cuts reduce excess steel inventories, they could eventually support steel prices and improve mill economics. 4. The CNY 707.5 Area Has Provided Recent Support Iron ore recovered from approximately CNY 707.5, demonstrating that buyers remain active below the CNY 710 area. 5. Peak-Season Demand Could Improve September and October are traditionally important periods for Chinese construction and industrial activity, while infrastructure spending and seasonal restocking could provide additional demand. Bearish Sentiment 1. Port Inventories Are Rising China's 35 major ports held 144.33 million tonnes of iron ore on September 18, an increase of 840,000 tonnes from the previous week. 2. Seaborne Supply Has Increased Iron-ore departures from major ports have risen sharply, with SMM data showing a roughly 23% increase over two weeks. 3. Steel-Mill Margins Remain Weak Higher raw-material costs and weak downstream steel demand continue to pressure steel profitability, encouraging further production cuts. 4. Coking-Coal Supply Is Gradually Recovering As more Shanxi mines resume production following earlier safety inspections, coking-coal availability could improve and reduce some of the raw-material scarcity premium. 5. Chinese Property Demand Remains Weak The prolonged property-sector downturn continues to constrain construction-related steel demand and limits the upside potential for raw materials. Iron Ore Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate technical map is: Upside levels:CNY 718-720 → CNY 730 → CNY 740 Support levels:CNY 710 → CNY 707.5 → CNY 700 A sustained move above CNY 720 would strengthen the short-term recovery and shift attention toward CNY 730-740. A failure to hold CNY 710, particularly if accompanied by another increase in port inventories, would increase the risk of a retest of CNY 707.5 and potentially CNY 700. The wider market remains range-bound between improving seasonal demand and a substantial supply overhang. Iron Ore Outlook: Restocking Versus Rising Inventories The central question for iron ore is whether the Golden Week restocking cycle is strong enough to absorb the additional supply entering China. On one side, mills are buying ahead of the holiday, steel inventories are declining and production controls could help stabilise the finished-steel market. On the other, iron-ore inventories have already turned higher, seaborne shipments are elevated and steel mills remain under pressure from weak profitability. This means the current rally has a clear fundamental catalyst, but it has not yet resolved the underlying supply-demand imbalance. The market will therefore be watching what happens after the pre-holiday restocking wave. If port inventories begin falling again after the holiday, the current recovery could develop into a broader move higher. If inventories continue to rise while steel production falls, the CNY 730-740 region could become difficult to sustain. Iron Ore Fundamental Outlook Iron ore enters the final weeks before Golden Week with a two-speed fundamental picture. The short-term outlook is supported by restocking, with Chinese mills increasing purchases before the holiday and finished-steel inventories declining. The medium-term outlook remains constrained by supply, with major exporters maintaining strong shipment volumes and Chinese port inventories rebuilding. Steel profitability is likely to remain the critical variable. If production controls successfully reduce finished-steel inventories and allow margins to recover, iron-ore demand could strengthen beyond the holiday. If steel demand remains weak and mills continue cutting output, the current restocking cycle may prove temporary and leave iron ore facing renewed downward pressure once the holiday demand has passed. Today Markets View Iron ore's fourth consecutive session of gains reflects stronger pre-holiday buying rather than a complete reversal in the underlying fundamentals. The main bullish catalysts are Golden Week restocking, declining steel inventories, production controls and the potential stabilisation of Chinese steel prices. The principal bearish factors remain 144.33 million tonnes of port inventories, rising seaborne supply, weak steel-mill profitability, recovering coking-coal production and continued weakness in China's property sector. The CNY 715 area is now an important short-term reference point. A sustained move through CNY 720 would put CNY 730 and CNY 740 into focus, while a break below CNY 710 would reopen the CNY 707.5-CNY 700 support zone. For traders, the key question is whether pre-Golden Week restocking develops into genuine improvement in steel demand or remains a temporary inventory-building cycle. Port inventories, blast-furnace utilisation, hot-metal output, steel margins and post-holiday demand will be critical indicators. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets This market analysis is provided by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading leveraged products and commodities involves substantial risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.

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Markets

September 21, 2026

Palm Oil Price Forecast: CPO Holds Near RM4,900 as Supply Risks and Indian Demand Support Prices

Malaysian palm oil futures are holding near the RM4,900 per tonne area after recent weakness, with firmer competing vegetable oils, improving Indian demand and growing concerns over future production providing support to the market. Palm oil remains caught between tightening medium-term supply expectations and softer near-term production and export data, leaving traders focused on whether the market can regain the RM5,000 level. The supply outlook remains an important bullish factor. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate is expected to divert more palm oil toward domestic fuel consumption, potentially reducing export availability. At the same time, the developing El Niño weather pattern has increased concern that hotter and drier conditions could affect yields in both Indonesia and Malaysia. Demand is also improving. India's palm oil imports increased 7% month-on-month to 782,761 tonnes in August, the highest level since February, as refiners replenished inventories ahead of the country's festival season. India is the world's largest importer of vegetable oils, making changes in Indian purchasing patterns particularly important for the Malaysian market. However, the market is not facing an immediate physical shortage. Malaysian CPO futures recently came under pressure from higher production, rising stocks and weaker exports. On September 18, the October 2026 contract closed at RM4,698, while November settled at RM4,800. Analysts cited by Bernama identified RM4,900 as an important support area and RM5,050 as resistance. The next major catalyst could come from India, where the government is considering reducing vegetable-oil import taxes. A reduction could stimulate additional import demand, although the final policy decision and size of any cut remain uncertain. Palm Oil Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market ViewPalm Oil / CPONear RM4,900/tonneKey SupportRM4,900Secondary SupportRM4,850Major ResistanceRM5,050Psychological ResistanceRM5,000October 2026 CPORM4,698 on Sept. 18November 2026 CPORM4,800 on Sept. 18India August Imports782,761 tonnesIndia Monthly Change+7%Malaysia October Reference PriceRM4,452.66/tonneMalaysian Export Duty10%Key Supply RiskEl Niño / dry weatherIndonesia BiodieselB50Key Demand CatalystPotential Indian import-tax cut Palm Oil Price Today: RM4,900 Remains the Key Battleground The RM4,900 area has become an important technical and psychological level for Malaysian palm oil futures. Recent trading has shown that the market can recover when competing vegetable oils strengthen, but rallies have struggled to remain above the RM5,000 region. MPOC data show the CPO settlement moving from RM4,814 on September 11 to RM4,850 on September 14, RM4,884 on September 16 and RM4,936 on September 17. That recovery was followed by renewed pressure on September 18 as higher production expectations, weaker exports and softer soybean and crude-oil prices weighed on sentiment. The resulting market structure is therefore increasingly dependent on whether buyers defend RM4,900 and push prices back toward RM5,000. Indonesia's B50 Biodiesel Programme Tightens the Supply Outlook Indonesia's B50 biodiesel programme remains one of the most important structural factors for palm oil. By increasing the palm-oil component used in biodiesel, the programme raises domestic consumption and potentially reduces the amount available for export. Reuters has previously reported that the B50 programme requires a blend containing 50% palm-based biodiesel, increasing domestic demand for palm oil. For Malaysian producers, this can create a supportive second-order effect because Indonesia is the world's largest palm-oil producer. If more Indonesian palm oil is absorbed domestically, international buyers may need to rely more heavily on Malaysian supply. However, the bullish impact depends on actual biodiesel consumption, production growth and the economics of palm-based biodiesel relative to conventional diesel. El Niño Raises Medium-Term Production Risks Weather is another major support factor. Developing El Niño conditions have raised concerns that hotter and drier weather could affect palm yields across Indonesia and Malaysia. Malaysian regulators have already highlighted concerns about potential severe weather effects on the country's palm-oil sector and are asking publicly listed companies to strengthen their preparedness for El Niño-related risks. The timing is important because palm trees respond to weather conditions with a lag. A period of drought does not necessarily create an immediate production collapse, but prolonged heat and insufficient rainfall can eventually affect fruit development and yields. This gives the market a potentially bullish medium-term supply narrative even while current production remains relatively healthy. Malaysian Production and Exports Remain the Near-Term Headwind The immediate market picture is less bullish than the longer-term supply story. Bernama reported that Malaysian CPO futures were pressured on September 18 by expectations of higher production and weaker exports. Recent rainfall in Kalimantan also reduced some weather-related production concerns. Malaysian exports for September 1-15 were estimated at approximately 560,000 tonnes, nearly 18% below the corresponding period in August, while southern Malaysian palm-oil production was estimated to have increased 26.62% over the same comparison period. This creates an important fundamental conflict: Production is currently providing downside pressure, while future supply risks are providing upside support. The market therefore needs stronger exports or evidence of declining production before a sustained move above RM5,000 becomes technically convincing. India Demand Provides an Important Bullish Catalyst India's palm-oil demand has improved significantly. August palm-oil imports rose 7% to 782,761 tonnes, the highest level since February. Refiners were rebuilding stocks ahead of the festival season, supporting purchases of both palm oil and competing vegetable oils. India's overall vegetable-oil market is particularly important because the country imports roughly two-thirds of its vegetable-oil requirements. Palm oil competes directly with soybean and sunflower oil, meaning changes in relative pricing can quickly alter buying patterns. The potential Indian import-tax reduction therefore represents an important upside catalyst. If import duties are reduced, Indian refiners could become more aggressive buyers of imported vegetable oils, potentially increasing international demand for Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil. India Import-Tax Decision Could Move the Market India is considering a reduction in vegetable-oil import taxes as food-oil prices have risen significantly. Reuters reported that the government was considering a possible 5% reduction in the basic import duty, although no final decision had been announced at the time of the report. The government is balancing consumer food inflation against the interests of domestic oilseed producers. For palm oil traders, the significance is straightforward. A lower import tax could improve the economics of imported palm oil and encourage additional purchases from India. That would potentially tighten export availability in Southeast Asia and provide support to international vegetable-oil prices. However, traders will need to distinguish between expectations of a tariff reduction and the actual policy announced by the Indian government. Malaysia Raises October Reference Price While Duty Remains at 10% Malaysia has raised its October crude palm oil reference price to RM4,452.66 per tonne, from RM4,392.32 in September, while retaining the maximum 10% export duty. The Malaysian export-duty structure reaches its maximum rate when CPO prices exceed RM4,050 per tonne. With the October reference price comfortably above that threshold, exporters will continue to face the 10% duty. The higher reference price reflects the elevated value of Malaysian CPO but does not provide exporters with a reduction in the tax burden. Soybean Oil and Dalian Markets Remain Important Palm oil competes directly with soybean and sunflower oil in the global vegetable-oil complex. Stronger soybean-oil prices have recently provided support to Malaysian CPO, while weakness in soybean oil has contributed to selling pressure. This relationship was visible during September trading, with Bernama repeatedly identifying soybean-oil movements as a major influence on Malaysian palm oil futures. For traders, this means palm oil cannot be assessed in isolation. A sustained rally in soybean oil could improve palm oil's relative demand prospects, while falling soybean oil prices can make palm oil comparatively less attractive. Crude Oil and the Ringgit Add Two More Variables Crude oil is another important influence because palm oil is increasingly linked to the biodiesel market. When crude oil rises, palm-based biodiesel can become more competitive, potentially supporting palm oil demand. Conversely, falling crude prices can reduce the economic incentive to substitute palm oil into fuel markets. The stronger Malaysian ringgit is also a headwind for CPO because palm oil is priced internationally while Malaysian producers receive revenue in ringgit. A stronger currency can make Malaysian exports relatively more expensive for international buyers. The combination of softer crude oil and a firmer ringgit has therefore recently limited the upside response in palm oil. Palm Oil Technical Analysis The technical structure remains centred on the RM4,900 level. The market has repeatedly treated this region as important support. Bernama analysts have recently identified RM4,900 as support and RM5,050 as resistance. A sustained move above RM5,000 would improve the short-term technical structure and bring RM5,050 into focus. Conversely, a decisive break below RM4,900 would expose the market to a deeper correction toward the mid-RM4,800s. The technical picture therefore remains a contest between a medium-term supply-tightening narrative and near-term evidence of higher Malaysian production. Bullish Sentiment 1. India Import Demand Is Recovering India's 782,761-tonne August palm-oil import figure represents a six-month high and demonstrates stronger refinery demand ahead of the festival season. 2. A Potential Indian Tariff Cut Could Increase Imports A reduction in Indian vegetable-oil import taxes could improve import economics and encourage additional buying from Southeast Asian producers. 3. B50 Reduces Indonesian Export Availability Indonesia's B50 biodiesel programme increases domestic palm-oil consumption and can reduce the volume available to the international market. 4. El Niño Creates Medium-Term Supply Risk Hotter and drier conditions could affect yields in Indonesia and Malaysia, providing a potential supply constraint further into the crop cycle. 5. RM4,900 Has Acted as Important Support Market analysts have repeatedly identified the RM4,900 region as a significant technical support zone, meaning a successful defence could encourage buyers to target higher levels. Bearish Sentiment 1. Malaysian Production Is Increasing Higher production expectations are currently limiting the bullish supply narrative, particularly after stronger production estimates in September. 2. Exports Have Been Weak September 1-15 Malaysian exports were estimated to have fallen almost 18% from the corresponding August period, raising concerns about immediate demand. 3. Soybean Oil Weakness Can Pressure Palm Oil Weakness in competing vegetable oils reduces palm oil's relative pricing advantage and can encourage substitution toward soybean oil. 4. Lower Crude Oil Reduces Biodiesel Support Falling crude oil prices can reduce the economic incentive to use palm oil as a feedstock for biodiesel. 5. RM5,000-RM5,050 Remains a Major Technical Barrier Palm oil has struggled to maintain sustained upside momentum above the psychologically important RM5,000 area, while recent market commentary places resistance around RM5,050. Palm Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate technical map is relatively clear: Upside levels:RM4,950 → RM5,000 → RM5,050 Support levels:RM4,900 → RM4,850 → RM4,800 A sustained move above RM5,000 would put RM5,050 into focus and would indicate that buyers are beginning to overcome the recent production and export concerns. A break below RM4,900, meanwhile, would weaken the near-term structure and expose the market to another test of the RM4,850-RM4,800 area. The broader fundamental picture remains more complicated. Stronger Indian demand, B50 biodiesel consumption and El Niño risks provide medium-term support, but current Malaysian production and export data remain a near-term constraint. Palm Oil Outlook: Supply Tightness Versus Current Availability The central issue for palm oil traders is the timing of the supply story. Current Malaysian production is not showing the characteristics of an immediate shortage. August production was strong, September production has remained elevated and exports have recently weakened. But the forward-looking supply picture is different. Indonesia's B50 programme can structurally increase domestic consumption, while El Niño could reduce future yields. At the same time, India is rebuilding inventories and could potentially increase purchases if import duties are reduced. That creates a market in which near-term fundamentals are mixed but medium-term supply risks remain significant. For prices to establish a stronger bullish trend, traders will likely want confirmation through improving exports, stronger Indian buying and evidence that weather conditions are beginning to affect production. Palm Oil Fundamental Outlook The palm oil market enters the next phase with several competing forces. On the bullish side, India is restocking, the potential Indian tariff reduction could stimulate demand, Indonesia's B50 programme is increasing domestic consumption and El Niño creates a credible medium-term production risk. On the bearish side, Malaysian production remains relatively strong, exports have been disappointing and softer crude and competing vegetable-oil prices have limited the market's ability to extend gains. This makes RM4,900 a particularly important level. If buyers continue defending that area while Indian demand strengthens and supply concerns become more prominent, the market could return toward RM5,000-RM5,050. If exports remain weak and production continues to rise, however, the market could remain trapped below RM5,000 and revisit the RM4,800s. Today Markets View Palm oil is currently balancing a stronger medium-term supply narrative against weaker near-term Malaysian fundamentals. The key bullish catalysts are India's rising imports, a potential Indian import-tax cut, Indonesia's B50 biodiesel programme and El Niño-related production risks. The main bearish factors are higher Malaysian production, weaker exports, softer crude oil and weakness in competing vegetable oils. The RM4,900 area remains the key technical battleground. Holding above it keeps the door open toward RM5,000 and RM5,050, while a sustained break below it would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward RM4,850 and RM4,800. For traders, the next major developments to monitor are India's decision on vegetable-oil import duties, Malaysian export data, production estimates, soybean-oil prices, crude oil and evidence of whether El Niño begins translating into lower palm yields. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets This market analysis is provided by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading leveraged products and commodities involves substantial risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.

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Energies

September 21, 2026

European Natural Gas Price Forecast: TTF Gas Falls Below €79 as Middle East Diplomacy and Winter Supply Risks Collide

European natural gas prices fell below €79/MWh on Monday, retreating after a sharp rise in the previous session as traders monitored diplomatic developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and their potential impact on global LNG supplies. The decline came as oil prices also moved lower following renewed expectations of diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump said he would probably be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the United Nations General Assembly this week. Any progress toward de-escalation could eventually improve LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in European gas prices. Reuters reported that only 12 commodity vessels passed through the Strait over the weekend, compared with around 125 vessels per day before the conflict, highlighting the continuing disruption to regional shipping. However, the European gas market remains structurally vulnerable. European storage is only around 67%-69% full, well below the level that would normally provide greater comfort ahead of winter. Reuters reported storage at approximately 67%, compared with the EU's target of reaching 80% by December. At the same time, Europe is competing with Asian buyers for available LNG cargoes, while Norwegian infrastructure maintenance can periodically restrict pipeline supply. Qatar's LNG exports have also been severely affected by the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, leaving European buyers more dependent on alternative sources including US LNG. With the Northern Hemisphere heating season approaching, the European gas market remains highly sensitive to weather, storage injections, LNG availability and geopolitical developments. European Natural Gas Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market ViewDutch TTF GasBelow €79/MWhRecent TTF reference~€78-79/MWhRecent September high~€84.50/MWhImmediate resistance€80.60/MWhHigher resistance€83.05-€83.40/MWhMajor resistance€84.50/MWhInitial support€76.50/MWhSecondary support€75.60/MWhMajor support€72.90-€73.30/MWhEU storage~67%-69% fullEU winter target80% by DecemberKey supply riskStrait of Hormuz / LNG disruptionMajor pipeline supplierNorwayKey competing marketAsiaMain seasonal riskWinter heating demand Recent TTF market analysis places the nearest downside support around €75.60-€76.50/MWh, with the previous breakout zone around €72.90-€73.30/MWh. On the upside, €80.60/MWh is an important initial resistance area, followed by €83.05-€83.40/MWh and the recent September high near €84.50/MWh. European Gas Price Today: TTF Falls Below €79 The Dutch TTF benchmark has pulled back from its recent highs as traders assess whether diplomatic developments could eventually improve energy flows from the Middle East. TTF futures recently climbed above €79/MWh and reached approximately €84.50/MWh before momentum eased. The retreat has therefore not removed the broader supply-risk premium from the market. The important distinction is between a short-term decline caused by improved geopolitical expectations and a genuine improvement in physical supply. At present, the latter has not yet occurred. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major bottleneck for LNG shipments, while European storage remains below normal seasonal comfort levels. Middle East Diplomacy Reduces Some Immediate Risk The latest decline in European gas prices has been partly linked to renewed diplomatic expectations surrounding the Middle East. President Trump indicated that he could be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly, although Tehran had not confirmed an equivalent commitment. For the European gas market, the significance is primarily related to energy supply. A reduction in geopolitical tensions could eventually allow LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to normalise, increasing the availability of cargoes for Europe and Asia. However, the shipping disruption remains substantial. Reuters reported that only 12 commodity vessels passed through the Strait over the weekend, compared with roughly 125 vessels per day before the conflict. That means the physical supply risk remains elevated even as prices respond to diplomatic headlines. LNG Supply Remains the Central European Gas Risk The European gas market has become increasingly dependent on LNG since the loss of much of its previous Russian pipeline supply. US LNG has become particularly important. Reuters reported that US LNG now accounts for around 22% of European gas demand, compared with less than 5% in 2021. However, Europe is not competing for LNG in isolation. Asian buyers are also attempting to secure cargoes, particularly as Middle Eastern supply disruptions force countries to look for replacement volumes. Reuters estimates that the disruption to LNG exports from the Middle East has removed approximately 36 million tonnes of LNG supply, increasing competition between European and Asian buyers. This creates a potentially important price mechanism. If Asian buyers are prepared to pay more for flexible LNG cargoes, European buyers may have to increase prices to attract those same shipments. European Gas Storage Remains Below Seasonal Comfort Levels Storage is one of the most important fundamental variables heading into winter. European storage levels are currently around 67%-69%, depending on the reporting date and source, compared with the 80% target for the end of the year. The deficit is particularly significant because storage must provide flexibility during periods of high winter demand. Germany remains one of the more vulnerable markets, with storage reported at only around 53% full in early September. Europe has diversified its supply infrastructure considerably since the 2022 energy crisis, but low inventories mean that the market remains sensitive to unexpected disruptions. The issue is therefore not necessarily an immediate physical shortage. Instead, the major risk is that Europe may have to pay substantially higher prices to secure enough LNG and pipeline gas if winter demand rises unexpectedly. Norway Remains Critical to European Supply Norway has become Europe's largest gas supplier following the reduction in Russian pipeline flows. Norwegian pipeline deliveries therefore remain critical to maintaining European energy security. However, maintenance at Norwegian gas infrastructure can temporarily reduce available flows. Kpler reported that scheduled maintenance across Norwegian fields and processing facilities was expected to affect supply during September, while broader European pipeline and LNG maintenance was also limiting the amount of gas available for storage injections. This makes Norwegian availability an important variable alongside LNG shipments. Competition Between Europe and Asia for LNG The European gas market is increasingly competing directly with Asia for flexible LNG. If the Middle East disruption continues, Asian buyers may increase purchases from the United States and Atlantic Basin suppliers. That could increase the price Europe must pay to attract additional cargoes. Kpler reported that European LNG imports had recently declined by around 19.4% week-on-week, while TTF maintained a premium over Asian JKM pricing that was sufficient to attract cargo diversions toward Europe. This illustrates the role of price. Europe can attract LNG when its benchmark price is sufficiently high relative to alternative destinations. However, the resulting higher price becomes an additional burden for European industry and consumers. Winter Weather Could Determine the Next Major Move The approach of winter is now becoming increasingly important. Gas consumption can change dramatically depending on temperatures, particularly across Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. A mild winter would reduce heating demand and give Europe more time to replenish inventories. A colder-than-expected winter would have the opposite effect, increasing withdrawals from storage and intensifying competition for LNG. Reuters reported that a particularly cold winter could increase European gas demand by approximately 30 bcm, creating significantly greater pressure on inventories and LNG availability. This makes weather forecasts increasingly important for the TTF forward curve. European Natural Gas Technical Analysis TTF prices recently reached approximately €84.50/MWh before pulling back toward the €78-79/MWh region. The decline has reduced short-term momentum, but the broader structure remains supported by the underlying supply risks. Recent technical analysis identifies €80.635/MWh as the first significant upside recovery level. Above that, resistance emerges around €83.045-€83.415/MWh, followed by the September high near €84.50/MWh. On the downside, €76.50/MWh is the first important support zone, followed by €75.60/MWh. A deeper correction could bring the previous breakout area around €72.90-€73.30/MWh back into focus. Technical indicators from September 18 showed TTF trading above several key moving averages, although some shorter-term momentum indicators were already approaching overbought conditions. Bullish Sentiment 1. Low European Storage European storage remains below the 80% winter target, leaving less of a safety margin if demand rises sharply. 2. Strait of Hormuz LNG Disruption The continuing disruption to LNG shipments from the Middle East represents one of the largest upside risks for European gas. The loss of approximately 36 million tonnes of LNG supply has tightened the global market and increased competition for replacement cargoes. 3. Asian Competition for LNG Europe may need to compete with Asian buyers for flexible US and Atlantic Basin LNG. Higher Asian demand could therefore force European prices higher to attract sufficient cargoes. 4. Winter Demand Risk A colder-than-expected winter could rapidly increase gas withdrawals and expose the limited storage cushion. 5. Norwegian Maintenance Temporary reductions in Norwegian pipeline supply can further tighten the European balance at a time when LNG availability is already constrained. Bearish Sentiment 1. Diplomatic Progress Could Reduce the Risk Premium Any sustained progress toward resolving the Middle East conflict could improve LNG shipping conditions and reduce the geopolitical premium embedded in European gas prices. 2. Higher Prices Can Reduce Demand Elevated gas prices can encourage industrial users to reduce consumption, switch fuels where possible and improve energy efficiency. This creates a natural demand response that can limit sustained price increases. 3. Increased US LNG Availability Europe has significantly expanded its ability to receive LNG and has become an important destination for US cargoes. This diversification provides a larger supply base than was available during the 2022 energy crisis. 4. Mild Winter Scenario If temperatures remain relatively mild through the heating season, European storage withdrawals could be lower than feared. That would reduce the urgency to secure additional LNG cargoes and could place downward pressure on TTF prices. 5. Technical Correction Failure to reclaim €80.60/MWh could leave the market vulnerable to a deeper correction toward €76.50 and potentially €72.90-€73.30/MWh. European Natural Gas Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The European gas market is currently balancing two opposing forces. The bearish force is the possibility that Middle East diplomacy improves LNG availability and reduces the geopolitical risk premium. The bullish force is the physical supply situation: low European storage, restricted LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, competition with Asia and seasonal winter demand. That means a diplomatic headline can trigger an immediate decline, but the market's underlying physical balance may prevent prices from falling substantially unless actual LNG flows improve. European Gas Technical Map Upside levels: €80.60/MWh — first major recovery level €83.05-€83.40/MWh — resistance zone €84.50/MWh — recent September high €90/MWh — next psychological area if supply fears intensify Downside levels: €76.50/MWh — initial support €75.60/MWh — secondary support €72.90-€73.30/MWh — major previous breakout zone €70/MWh — psychological support A sustained move above €84.50/MWh would indicate that the recent supply concerns are again dominating the market. Conversely, a sustained move below €75.60/MWh would suggest that the geopolitical risk premium is being unwound more aggressively. European Gas Market: Physical Supply Versus Financial Pricing The current market demonstrates why European natural gas cannot be assessed solely through headline price movements. Prices can fall rapidly when traders anticipate diplomatic progress, even before physical LNG flows improve. Conversely, prices can rise sharply when traders anticipate a future shortage. The critical variables are therefore: European storage levels LNG arrivals Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions Qatar LNG exports US LNG availability Norwegian pipeline flows Asian LNG demand European weather forecasts Industrial gas consumption The interaction between these factors will determine whether the current decline becomes a broader correction or merely a temporary pullback within a structurally tight market. Fundamental Outlook European natural gas prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments as winter approaches. The current decline below €79/MWh reflects improved expectations surrounding diplomacy, but the physical supply situation remains uncertain. European storage is still well below the 80% winter target, while Middle Eastern LNG supply remains constrained and Qatar's ability to expand exports is being affected by the continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters also reported that QatarEnergy's North Field expansion projects could face delays because of difficulties receiving critical equipment during the crisis. At the same time, Europe's ability to attract US LNG and its diversification away from Russian pipeline gas provide important buffers. The result is a market with significant upside risk but also substantial potential for sharp corrections when geopolitical conditions improve. Today Markets View European natural gas remains caught between diplomatic optimism and physical supply risk. The move below €79/MWh reflects expectations that improved US-Iran diplomatic engagement could eventually restore LNG flows and reduce the geopolitical premium. However, the underlying market remains vulnerable. European storage is only around 67%-69% full, substantially below the 80% winter target, while LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily disrupted. Europe is also competing with Asia for flexible LNG cargoes, while Norwegian maintenance can periodically reduce pipeline availability. Technically, €80.60/MWh is the first important resistance, followed by €83.05-€83.40/MWh and €84.50/MWh. On the downside, €76.50 and €75.60 provide the first areas of support, with €72.90-€73.30 representing a much deeper technical level. The key issue for traders is whether diplomatic progress translates into actual improvement in LNG flows. Until that happens, low storage and approaching winter demand leave the European gas market exposed to renewed supply shocks. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets General Disclaimer:Octalas Group Ltd, on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger, provides market commentary and analysis for informational and educational purposes only. The information presented does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading leveraged financial products involves significant risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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September 21, 2026

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Holds Above $4,350 as Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns

Gold held above $4,350 an ounce on Monday after advancing for a second consecutive session, as falling oil prices eased some concerns over renewed inflation and the prospect of additional Federal Reserve interest-rate increases. Spot gold recently reached around $4,360 an ounce, recovering from a near six-week low after lower oil prices and a weaker US dollar supported demand for the non-yielding precious metal. Gold also benefited from a decline in US Treasury yields following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The decline in crude prices has become an important short-term driver for precious metals. Brent crude fell more than 2% to $101.71 a barrel, while WTI declined more than 2% to $98.15, with markets responding to increased diplomatic efforts surrounding the Middle East conflict and signs that regional oil flows are recovering. At the same time, gold's recovery remains complicated by the Federal Reserve's renewed tightening cycle. The Fed raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first rate increase in three years, while inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target. Fed officials are now reinforcing the message that inflation remains too high. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that price pressures extend beyond the original oil shock and remain elevated across the US economy. Reuters reported that markets are pricing the possibility of additional rate increases extending into 2027. This leaves gold at an important technical and fundamental crossroads, with lower oil prices and safe-haven demand supporting the metal while higher-for-longer interest-rate expectations remain a significant counterweight. Gold Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market ViewGold priceAbove $4,350/ozRecent directionSecond consecutive session of gainsRecent spot priceAround $4,360/ozImmediate resistance$4,407Next major resistance$4,470Psychological resistance$4,500Key support$4,342Secondary support$4,300Major downside support$4,260Federal Funds Rate3.75%-4.00%Fed inflation target2%Brent crudeAround $101.71/bblWTI crudeAround $98.15/bblUS Dollar IndexAround 100.23Primary macro driversOil, Fed policy, Treasury yields, US dollar, geopolitics Gold Price Today: Why Gold Is Holding Above $4,350 Gold's latest recovery is being driven by a combination of lower energy prices, easing Treasury yields and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The metal has recovered sharply from its recent decline, with spot gold reaching $4,360.36 an ounce last week after falling to a near six-week low. Reuters attributed the rebound partly to declining oil prices and a weaker US dollar, which reduced the cost of gold for buyers using other currencies. Gold is particularly sensitive to movements in US real yields because it does not generate interest income. When Treasury yields rise, investors have greater incentive to hold interest-bearing assets. When yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines. That relationship is particularly important now because the Federal Reserve has resumed tightening while oil prices are moving in the opposite direction. Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns Oil prices have fallen for four consecutive sessions, reaching their lowest levels since September 10 as markets responded to signs of improving energy flows and renewed diplomatic efforts. Brent crude dropped to approximately $101.71, while WTI fell to around $98.15. Saudi Arabia has also increased crude exports, helping offset disruptions caused by the conflict and pipeline damage. Lower oil prices can benefit gold indirectly. Energy prices are an important component of inflation expectations. If crude continues to decline, markets may become less concerned that the Middle East conflict will generate another sustained inflationary shock. That could reduce pressure on central banks to continue raising rates. However, the relationship is not one-directional. Geopolitical developments could quickly reverse the decline in oil prices, particularly while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted. Reuters reported that only 12 commodity vessels passed through the strait over the most recent weekend, compared with approximately 125 vessels per day before the conflict. Federal Reserve Tightening Creates a Major Gold Headwind The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on September 16, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The FOMC said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending remained resilient and inflation remained elevated. The central bank reiterated its commitment to returning inflation to its 2% objective. This represents a significant change for gold markets. The Fed had not raised rates for three years before the September decision. The renewed tightening cycle means the market must once again assess the impact of higher US rates and Treasury yields on precious-metal demand. The key question is whether falling oil prices will eventually reduce inflation pressure sufficiently to limit additional rate increases, or whether broader service-sector and domestic inflation will keep monetary policy restrictive. Kashkari Warns Inflation Is Broad-Based Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reinforced the more hawkish side of the debate over the weekend. Kashkari said inflation remains too high across the US economy and is no longer simply a consequence of the initial oil-price shock. He specifically pointed to persistent price increases across services and other categories. That matters for gold because a broader inflation problem gives the Federal Reserve less room to ease policy. If inflation remains above target while economic growth stays resilient, Treasury yields could remain elevated and the dollar could receive additional support. Gold would then need to rely more heavily on safe-haven demand and physical-market demand to maintain upward momentum. US Dollar Remains a Key Variable The US Dollar Index was around 100.23 on Monday after strengthening following last week's Federal Reserve decision. Gold and the US dollar frequently move inversely because gold is priced internationally in dollars. A stronger dollar increases the effective cost of gold for international buyers, while a weaker dollar can improve demand. The recent gold recovery therefore received an additional boost from the dollar's earlier decline. Reuters reported that the combination of lower oil prices and a weaker US currency helped drive gold's more than 2% recovery last week. For the current week, however, the dollar remains a potential obstacle if Fed officials continue to support further tightening. Middle East Diplomacy Remains Central to the Gold Outlook Geopolitical developments remain another major variable for gold. President Donald Trump said he would “probably” be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the United Nations General Assembly this week, while diplomatic discussions could also involve Persian Gulf leaders. The prospect of negotiations has contributed to the decline in oil prices. For gold, the implications are mixed. Successful diplomacy could reduce demand for safe-haven assets as geopolitical risk premiums decline. However, any deterioration in relations or disruption to energy flows could quickly restore safe-haven demand. This creates a two-sided relationship between Middle East developments and gold: de-escalation can reduce the geopolitical premium, while renewed conflict can increase demand for defensive assets. Treasury Yields Remain Important for Gold US Treasury yields remain one of the most important variables for gold traders. Following the Federal Reserve's September decision, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to around 4.939%, helping precious metals recover. The subsequent direction of yields will therefore be important. If yields continue to decline alongside oil prices, gold could receive additional support from a lower opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. If yields resume their upward trend because markets anticipate more Fed tightening, gold could face renewed resistance. Gold Technical Analysis Gold is currently trading above $4,350, placing the market close to an important technical resistance area. Current technical data show support around $4,341.90, a pivot near $4,370.78 and initial resistance around $4,407.27. The broader technical picture becomes increasingly important above $4,400. A sustained move through $4,407 would place the market back toward the $4,470 region, while $4,500 represents a major psychological barrier. On the downside, failure to hold the $4,300-$4,340 area would weaken the immediate recovery structure and bring $4,260 into focus. Previous technical analysis identified $4,300 as an important support area and $4,530 as a significant resistance level for the broader recovery structure. Bullish Sentiment 1. Gold Holds Above $4,350 Gold has recovered from its recent six-week low and is now holding above $4,350. The ability to remain above this region keeps the recent recovery structure intact. 2. Falling Oil Prices Reduce Inflation Pressure Brent and WTI have both fallen sharply in recent sessions. Lower energy prices could reduce inflation expectations and potentially reduce the pressure on central banks to maintain aggressive tightening. 3. Treasury Yields Have Pulled Back The decline in US Treasury yields following the Fed decision has improved the relative attractiveness of gold compared with interest-bearing assets. 4. Geopolitical Risk Remains Elevated Although diplomatic efforts are increasing, the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt shipping and energy infrastructure. That uncertainty can continue to support demand for defensive assets. 5. Dollar Weakness Can Support Gold The earlier decline in the US dollar helped gold recover more than 2% last week, demonstrating the continuing sensitivity of the metal to currency movements. Bearish Sentiment 1. Federal Reserve Tightening The Fed has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, and officials continue to warn that inflation is too high. Further tightening remains a potential risk for gold. 2. Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates If inflation remains persistent, Treasury yields could remain elevated or rise further, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. 3. US Dollar Strength The Dollar Index remains around 100.23, and further Fed tightening could provide additional support for the US currency. 4. Middle East De-escalation Successful diplomatic negotiations could reduce safe-haven demand for gold and remove part of the geopolitical premium currently incorporated into precious-metal prices. 5. Resistance Above $4,400 Gold remains below the $4,407-$4,470 resistance area. A failure to break through this zone could leave the market vulnerable to renewed consolidation or profit-taking. Gold Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is the $4,350-$4,400 region. Gold has regained the $4,350 area, but the next technical test comes around $4,407. A sustained move above that level would place $4,470 and then $4,500 on the technical map. On the downside, traders are watching $4,342 as immediate support, followed by $4,300 and $4,260. Gold Technical Map Upside levels $4,350 — current recovery area $4,407 — immediate technical resistance $4,470 — next major resistance $4,500 — major psychological resistance $4,530 — broader technical resistance Downside levels $4,342 — immediate support $4,300 — important psychological/technical support $4,260 — deeper support The interaction between these levels and the direction of US Treasury yields, the dollar and oil prices will remain central to the next major move. Gold's Fundamental Outlook Gold enters the latest trading week with opposing fundamental forces. On one side, falling oil prices, lower recent Treasury yields, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed safe-haven demand are supporting the metal. On the other, the Federal Reserve has restarted its tightening cycle and continues to warn that inflation is too high. The critical issue is whether the decline in oil prices becomes persistent enough to ease broader inflation pressures. If energy prices continue falling and Treasury yields moderate, the macroeconomic environment could become more supportive for gold. If oil prices rebound because of renewed Middle East disruptions, however, the resulting inflation shock could create a more complicated environment. Higher inflation would normally support gold as an inflation hedge, but if it simultaneously forces the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, higher yields and a stronger dollar could offset that benefit. That makes the relationship between oil, inflation, rates and the dollar particularly important for gold during the current phase of the market. Currency Hedger View Gold's price is directly influenced by movements in the US dollar, while businesses and investors outside the United States also face an additional currency component when managing precious-metal exposure. A change in the dollar can alter the effective local-currency cost of gold even when the underlying metal price is unchanged. Currency Hedger monitors the macroeconomic factors influencing global currencies, including interest rates, inflation, central-bank policy, commodities and geopolitical developments. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Accounts Currency Hedger provides managed foreign-exchange solutions for businesses managing international payments, collections, supplier obligations and currency exposure. The service combines market analysis with practical FX execution and hedging considerations. Personal Accounts For personal clients with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides professional FX services designed around international transfers, currency conversion and managing exchange-rate exposure. For more information, visit Currency Hedger and its online onboarding service. Today Markets View Gold's move back above $4,350 leaves the market balancing falling oil prices against renewed Federal Reserve tightening. Lower crude prices are currently easing some inflation concerns and have helped Treasury yields and the dollar moderate from recent pressures. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, while officials including Neel Kashkari continue to emphasise that inflation remains too high. The technical picture now centres on $4,350, $4,407, $4,470 and $4,500 on the upside, with $4,342, $4,300 and $4,260 providing important downside reference levels. The direction of oil prices, US Treasury yields, the dollar and developments in the Middle East will remain the principal factors shaping gold's next move. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 21, 2026

Platinum Price Forecast: Platinum Holds Above $1,800 as Falling Oil and Supply Constraints Support the Market

Platinum futures climbed above $1,800 an ounce, extending gains for a third consecutive session as falling oil prices reduced concerns over persistent inflation and the possibility of further aggressive interest-rate tightening. The retreat in crude prices has lowered some of the pressure on non-yielding precious metals, while investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve's outlook following last week's rate increase. The decline in oil prices has become an important short-term driver for platinum. Brent crude fell to around $101.71 a barrel on Monday, while WTI slipped to approximately $98.15, as markets responded to increased Middle East oil flows and renewed hopes for diplomatic progress. Lower energy prices can reduce inflationary pressure and therefore potentially lessen the interest-rate burden on precious metals. At the same time, platinum's longer-term fundamentals remain supported by constrained supply and diversified industrial demand. The World Platinum Investment Council expects the market to remain structurally tight over the medium term, with average deficits of approximately 331,000 ounces per year from 2026 through 2030 in its five-year outlook. The immediate outlook, however, remains sensitive to Federal Reserve policy. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, while policymakers indicated that another increase could still occur during 2026. That creates an important counterweight to platinum's improving commodity fundamentals. Platinum Market Snapshot IndicatorCurrent Market ViewPlatinum priceAround $1,800/ozRecent directionThird consecutive session of gainsTechnical resistance$1,800-$1,819Next upside resistance$1,870-$1,890Key medium-term resistance$1,900Technical support$1,772Major support$1,700Federal Funds Rate3.75%-4.00%Fed outlookFurther 2026 tightening remains possible2026 WPIC balance265,000 oz surplus forecast2025 revised deficitMore than 1.4 million oz2026-2030 structural balanceAverage deficit of 331,000 oz annuallyIndustrial demandForecast to rise 5% in 2026Automotive demandForecast to fall 4% in 2026 Platinum Price Today: Why Platinum Is Rising Above $1,800 Platinum's latest advance reflects a combination of lower oil prices, changing expectations around inflation and persistent longer-term supply constraints. The metal is particularly sensitive to changes in real yields and expectations for monetary policy because it does not generate interest income. When markets expect higher rates for longer, the opportunity cost of holding platinum tends to increase. Conversely, when inflation concerns ease and rate expectations become less restrictive, precious metals can regain investor interest. That relationship has become particularly important following the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed increased rates to 3.75%-4.00%, its first rate increase in three years, while maintaining that inflation remains elevated. Policymakers' projections point to the possibility of another increase before the end of 2026. Platinum therefore faces two competing forces: easing energy-price pressure is supportive, while the prospect of additional US monetary tightening remains a potential headwind. Falling Oil Prices Reduce Inflation Pressure Oil prices have retreated sharply from their recent highs as Middle East supply flows improve and diplomatic activity increases. Brent fell more than 2% to $101.71 on Monday, while WTI declined more than 2% to $98.15. Saudi Arabia has also increased crude exports as alternative routes and shipping flows help compensate for earlier disruptions. For platinum, lower oil prices can be supportive through two channels. First, cheaper energy reduces the probability that inflation expectations will rise further. Second, it can reduce pressure on central banks to continue raising interest rates aggressively. This matters because platinum competes for investor capital with interest-bearing assets. If Treasury yields and real rates remain elevated, the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding metal remains relatively high. A sustained decline in oil prices could therefore improve the macroeconomic environment for platinum, although geopolitical developments remain capable of reversing the move. Federal Reserve Policy Remains a Key Risk The Federal Reserve remains one of the most important short-term variables for platinum. The central bank raised its policy rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, citing elevated inflation while noting resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth and robust capital investment. Fed officials have subsequently continued to emphasise inflation risks. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high across the US economy, while other officials have also highlighted the persistence of price pressures. Reuters reported that Fed policymakers' latest projections imply another rate increase during 2026, followed by a period of restrictive policy. For platinum, this creates a delicate balance. If oil prices continue falling and inflation expectations decline, markets could become less concerned about additional tightening. But if energy prices rebound sharply or inflation remains stubbornly high, higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar could pressure platinum. Structural Platinum Supply Remains Tight The longer-term platinum story is considerably different from the immediate 2026 market balance. The latest WPIC quarterly outlook forecasts a 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026, following a revised 2025 deficit of more than 1.4 million ounces. Despite the forecast surplus, above-ground inventories are expected to remain critically depleted, with year-end stocks equivalent to only around 3.4 months of global demand. This means that the headline 2026 surplus does not necessarily represent a return to abundant supply. The WPIC's five-year outlook continues to anticipate average platinum market deficits of approximately 331,000 ounces per year from 2026 through 2030. Mine supply is also structurally difficult to expand quickly. Higher prices have encouraged additional recycling, but WPIC says recycling growth has so far fallen short of expectations, while there is limited scope for substantial increases in mine production over the short-to-medium term. Industrial Demand Provides a Second Pillar of Support Platinum is no longer dependent solely on traditional precious-metal investment demand. WPIC forecasts 5% growth in industrial platinum demand during 2026, helping offset an expected 4% decline in automotive demand. Industrial applications include emissions-control systems, glass manufacturing, electronics, hydrogen technologies and emerging applications connected to artificial intelligence infrastructure. This diversification is important because platinum demand is being reshaped by technological investment. AI and Data Centres Could Create New Platinum Demand Artificial intelligence is emerging as an increasingly important long-term theme for platinum. WPIC has highlighted platinum's use in several technologies connected with AI infrastructure, including optical communications, data storage and other advanced industrial applications. China has also earmarked almost $300 billion for AI infrastructure development through 2030, creating potential additional demand across multiple platinum-related applications. Valterra Platinum has separately estimated current AI-related platinum-group-metal consumption at approximately 200,000-400,000 ounces annually, with the potential for significant growth toward 2030 as data-centre infrastructure expands. The scale and timing of this demand remain uncertain, but the development adds another structural component to the platinum market beyond automotive applications. Hydrogen Demand Offers Longer-Term Potential Hydrogen represents another important long-term source of platinum demand. Platinum is used in proton-exchange-membrane technology for hydrogen production and fuel-cell applications. However, the timing of hydrogen-related demand growth remains uncertain. WPIC's January 2026 research reduced its near-term expectations for platinum demand from electrolysis because some projects have been deferred and technology choices are shifting toward alkaline systems, which generally use fewer platinum-group metals. Nevertheless, WPIC continues to regard hydrogen as a meaningful long-term demand segment, particularly as energy-security considerations encourage investment in alternative energy infrastructure. Automotive Demand Remains a Long-Term Debate The transition toward battery-electric vehicles remains one of the most important structural risks for platinum. Battery-electric vehicles do not require the same catalytic-converter systems used by internal-combustion vehicles, creating a long-term challenge for traditional automotive platinum demand. However, the transition is not occurring uniformly across markets. Hybrid and internal-combustion vehicles continue to represent an important part of global vehicle production, while tighter emissions regulations can increase platinum-group-metal loadings in catalytic converters. WPIC therefore expects automotive demand to remain relatively resilient even while forecasting a 4% decline in automotive platinum demand during 2026. The result is a changing rather than disappearing source of platinum demand. Platinum Technical Analysis Platinum is currently testing the important $1,800 psychological and technical threshold. Recent technical analysis showed platinum trading around $1,796.53, with first support near $1,771.86, a pivot around $1,794.82, and resistance near $1,819.32. The broader technical structure becomes more constructive if platinum can establish sustained trading above the $1,800 region. A successful break could bring the $1,870-$1,890 area into focus, while the $1,900 level remains an important medium-term technical barrier. On the downside, a failure to hold the $1,770 area would expose the market to deeper support around $1,700, which has been identified as an important medium-term level. Bullish Sentiment 1. Platinum Holds Above the $1,800 Threshold A sustained move through $1,800 would represent an important technical development after repeated attempts to break the area. The next significant resistance zone is around $1,870-$1,890, followed by $1,900. 2. Structurally Tight Supply Although WPIC forecasts a modest surplus in 2026, inventories remain depleted following several years of significant deficits. The organisation expects average deficits of approximately 331,000 ounces annually between 2026 and 2030 in its medium-term outlook. 3. Falling Oil Prices Could Reduce Rate Pressure Lower crude prices can ease inflationary pressure and reduce concerns about additional monetary tightening. That could improve the environment for non-yielding precious metals. 4. Industrial and AI Demand Industrial demand is forecast to grow 5% in 2026, while AI infrastructure, data centres, electronics and hydrogen applications are creating additional potential sources of platinum consumption. Bearish Sentiment 1. Further Federal Reserve Tightening The Fed has already raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, and policymakers' latest projections indicate that another increase remains possible during 2026. Higher rates can increase the opportunity cost of holding platinum. 2. Elevated Treasury Yields Higher US yields can strengthen the dollar and reduce demand for non-yielding precious metals. This remains an important macroeconomic risk while the Fed maintains a restrictive stance. 3. 2026 Market Surplus WPIC currently forecasts a 265,000-ounce platinum surplus for 2026, reflecting weaker investment demand and improved supply. While inventories remain low, the surplus could temporarily limit upward pressure on prices. 4. Battery-Electric Vehicle Transition The long-term expansion of BEVs represents a structural challenge to platinum demand from catalytic converters. WPIC expects automotive demand to decline 4% in 2026, even as industrial demand expands. 5. Platinum Below $1,900 Despite the recent advance, platinum has not yet established a sustained move above the major $1,900 resistance area. Until that level is overcome, the market remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Platinum Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate focus is the $1,800 level. A sustained move above $1,800 would put $1,819 into focus initially, followed by the $1,870-$1,890 region. A further break through that zone would place $1,900 firmly back on the technical map. Conversely, failure to maintain momentum above $1,800 could bring the $1,772 area back into focus. A decisive move below that level would increase attention on the broader $1,700 support region. Platinum Technical Map Upside levels $1,800 — immediate psychological resistance $1,819 — near-term technical resistance $1,870-$1,890 — next major resistance zone $1,900 — major medium-term resistance Downside levels $1,772 — first significant support $1,700 — major medium-term support The interaction between these levels and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook will be important for determining whether the current recovery develops into a broader technical move or encounters renewed selling pressure. Platinum's Fundamental Outlook Platinum enters the final part of 2026 with an unusual combination of short-term macroeconomic pressure and longer-term structural support. The 2026 market is currently expected to record a 265,000-ounce surplus, but this follows a revised 1.4 million-ounce-plus deficit in 2025, leaving above-ground inventories exceptionally low. At the same time, WPIC expects average deficits of 331,000 ounces annually from 2026 through 2030, suggesting that the longer-term market balance remains considerably tighter than the current annual surplus headline might imply. The demand profile is also becoming more diversified. Automotive applications remain important, but industrial uses, hydrogen, electronics and AI-related infrastructure are increasingly relevant to the longer-term platinum story. For traders, this means platinum is being influenced simultaneously by two very different forces: short-term monetary policy and long-term physical-market fundamentals. Currency Hedger View For businesses and investors with platinum exposure, the interaction between commodity prices, the US dollar and interest rates remains important. Platinum is predominantly priced in US dollars, meaning currency movements can materially affect the effective cost for international buyers. A stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of platinum even when the underlying metal price is stable. Currency Hedger monitors the macroeconomic factors influencing major currencies, including central-bank policy, inflation, interest rates, commodities and geopolitical developments. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Accounts Currency Hedger provides managed foreign-exchange solutions for businesses managing international payments, collections, supplier obligations and currency exposure. The service combines market analysis with practical FX execution and hedging considerations. Personal Accounts For personal clients with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to professional FX services designed around international transfers, currency conversion and managing exchange-rate exposure. For more information, visit Currency Hedger and its online onboarding service. Today Markets View Platinum's move above $1,800 places the metal at an important technical and fundamental crossroads. In the near term, falling oil prices are reducing some of the inflation pressure that has complicated the precious-metals outlook, while the Federal Reserve's latest rate increase and the possibility of another hike remain significant headwinds. Beyond the immediate macroeconomic environment, however, platinum continues to face constrained mine supply and depleted inventories. WPIC's medium-term projections point to recurring deficits, while industrial demand from AI infrastructure, electronics, hydrogen and emissions-control applications is broadening the market's demand base. The key technical levels remain $1,800, $1,819, $1,870-$1,890 and $1,900 on the upside, with $1,772 and $1,700 providing important downside reference points. For traders and businesses exposed to platinum, the combination of Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, the US dollar, physical inventories and industrial demand will remain central to the market outlook. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 21, 2026

Corn Price Forecast: Global Supply Deficit Supports Corn Futures Near 2023 Highs

Corn futures remain elevated near $5.30 per bushel, with December corn recently trading around $5.27-$5.30 after retreating from the September advance. The market remains supported by tightening global supply expectations, with the USDA forecasting global corn consumption to exceed production by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27, potentially creating the largest global production deficit in more than three decades. At the same time, the US harvest is advancing slightly faster than normal, creating an important counterweight to the bullish global supply story. USDA data showed 8% of the US corn crop harvested by September 13, compared with a five-year average of 6%, while 57% of the crop was rated good to excellent. The crop was also 42% mature, four percentage points ahead of the five-year average. The combination of a large US crop, accelerating harvest and weaker recent export momentum is limiting the immediate upside. However, the global supply deficit, disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments, stronger Brazilian ethanol demand and concerns over longer-term grain acreage are keeping the underlying fundamental picture supportive. Reuters reported that corn futures rallied 16% in August, highlighting how strongly markets have already responded to the tightening global balance. Corn Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalDecember Corn FuturesAround $5.27-$5.30ElevatedRecent Contract High$5.49¾Major resistanceFirst Resistance$5.40Upside barrierSecond Resistance$5.44-$5.45Key resistanceImmediate Support$5.30Near-term supportSecondary Support$5.23¼Important supportMajor Chart Support$5.09Structural supportUS Corn Harvest8% completeAhead of averageFive-Year Harvest Average6%BenchmarkUS Crop Good/Excellent57%MixedGlobal 2026/27 Production DeficitNearly 30 MMTBullish fundamentalBrazil Ethanol DemandHigherReduces export availabilityAugust Corn Rally16%Strong momentum Corn Price Today: Futures Remain Elevated Despite Harvest Pressure The corn market has entered a more complicated phase after a powerful August advance. December corn futures recently reached around $5.49¾, establishing the current contract high, before momentum began to stall. By September 18, December corn had fallen to $5.2750, its lowest close since August 25, marking a third consecutive daily decline and a second straight weekly loss. The retreat reflects increasing harvest pressure as US farmers bring a large crop to market. However, the decline has not eliminated the underlying supply concerns. Instead, the market is balancing the immediate availability of US corn against a much tighter projected global balance for the 2026/27 marketing year. This leaves corn futures caught between near-term harvest pressure and longer-term global supply concerns. Global Corn Supply Deficit Supports the Market The most important bullish fundamental factor remains the projected global production deficit. The USDA forecasts global corn consumption to exceed production by almost 30 million metric tons in 2026/27. Reuters reported that this would represent the largest production shortfall in more than 30 years. The deficit is particularly significant because it comes despite another large US crop. Reduced production among major exporters, disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments and relatively stagnant global grain acreage are contributing to the tighter outlook. The market is therefore looking beyond the immediate US harvest and increasingly focusing on whether global supplies will be sufficient to meet consumption over the full marketing year. Black Sea Disruptions Add to Global Supply Concerns The Black Sea remains an important source of uncertainty for global grain markets. Continued disruption to grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine is contributing to tighter international availability and increasing the importance of other major exporters. Reuters noted that the global grain rally has occurred despite the beginning of the US harvest because supply concerns elsewhere are offsetting the apparent abundance of American corn. Any further deterioration in Black Sea export flows could therefore provide additional support to corn and other agricultural commodities. Conversely, an improvement in regional shipments would remove some of the supply-risk premium currently embedded in prices. Brazil Ethanol Demand Could Reduce Corn Exports Brazil is another important factor for the corn market. Higher domestic ethanol demand is diverting additional corn toward fuel production, reducing the amount potentially available for export. Recent analysis from Pro Farmer noted that stronger Brazilian ethanol demand had already prompted a reduction in projected Brazilian corn exports despite an increase in production estimates. This creates an important tightening mechanism because Brazil has become a major participant in global corn exports. If domestic ethanol consumption continues increasing, Brazil may have less corn available to compete in international markets, potentially increasing demand for supplies from the United States and other exporters. US Corn Harvest Creates Near-Term Bearish Pressure The biggest bearish factor for corn is the advancing US harvest. USDA reported that 8% of the national corn crop had been harvested as of September 13, compared with a five-year average of 6%. Crop maturity was also running ahead of normal, with 42% mature versus a five-year average of 38%. A faster harvest means more physical corn is becoming available to the market. That can pressure futures because farmers, elevators and commercial participants begin dealing with increasing supplies during the seasonal harvest period. Farm Futures reported that accelerating harvest activity was already placing pressure on December corn, while weather forecasts suggested fieldwork could accelerate further later in September if drier conditions return. The harvest therefore represents an important short-term obstacle for the bulls. US Crop Conditions Remain Mixed The US crop was rated 57% good to excellent as of September 13, up from 56% a week earlier. However, that figure remained 10 percentage points below the 67% reading from the same period last year. This creates a mixed signal. The improving weekly crop rating suggests that a significant portion of the crop remains in relatively good condition, supporting expectations for substantial production. But the year-on-year deterioration indicates that crop quality is not uniformly strong and leaves the market sensitive to further weather developments. The balance between final yields and harvested acreage will therefore remain important as the US harvest progresses. US Corn Export Demand Requires Monitoring Export demand represents another variable that could determine whether corn can challenge its recent highs. Farm Futures reported that weekly corn export sales dropped sharply after a brief surge, while shipments remained below year-earlier levels. USDA export inspections for the week ending September 10 were 1.525 million metric tons, down 9% from the previous week and 0.6% below the same week a year earlier. That weaker export momentum could limit the market's ability to absorb the additional supply arriving from the US harvest. Stronger international buying, however, would provide an important counterweight to harvest pressure. US-China Trade Talks Could Support Agricultural Demand US-China trade relations remain another potential market catalyst. Initial US-China discussions were described positively, raising expectations for greater Chinese purchases of US agricultural commodities. Although recent trade developments have generated particular attention around soybean purchases, any meaningful increase in Chinese demand for US corn would provide an additional source of support for the market. The significance is therefore not limited to confirmed corn purchases. Expectations surrounding broader agricultural trade flows can influence positioning across the grain complex. Corn Technical Analysis Technically, the December corn market remains above the major support zone established during the September correction, but the recent uptrend has lost some momentum. Pro Farmer identified the $5.49¾ contract high as the next major upside objective, with initial resistance around $5.40 and further resistance around $5.44-$5.45. Initial support was identified around $5.30, followed by $5.23¼, while a close below $5.09 would represent a more significant deterioration of the broader chart structure. Reuters technical analysis similarly identified approximately $5.43 as an important resistance area, with a break above it potentially opening the way toward $5.48¾-$5.52¼. Immediate support was placed around $5.33¾, followed by the $5.28-$5.30¾ region. The technical picture therefore remains constructive above the major support areas, but the market needs to regain upside momentum before the contract high can come back into focus. Bullish Sentiment 1. Global Production Is Forecast Below Consumption The projected nearly 30 million metric ton global corn deficit for 2026/27 is the most significant fundamental support for the market. 2. Global Grain Supplies Are Tightening Reduced production among major exporters, Black Sea disruptions and relatively stagnant grain acreage are contributing to tighter global availability. 3. Brazilian Ethanol Demand Is Increasing More Brazilian corn is being directed toward ethanol production, potentially reducing export availability. 4. US Crop Conditions Are Below Last Year Although 57% of the US crop remains rated good to excellent, the figure is 10 percentage points below the same period last year. 5. Corn Remains Above Major Technical Support The market continues to trade above the $5.23¼ area and well above the major $5.09 chart support level identified by Pro Farmer. 6. Chinese Agricultural Demand Could Increase Positive US-China trade discussions could potentially increase Chinese purchases of US agricultural products, providing another demand catalyst. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Harvest Is Advancing Ahead of Average With 8% of the crop harvested versus a five-year average of 6%, physical supplies are increasing at a relatively fast pace. 2. Crop Maturity Is Also Ahead of Average USDA reported 42% of the crop mature compared with a five-year average of 38%, suggesting that additional supply could reach the market relatively quickly. 3. Export Momentum Has Weakened Recent US corn export sales and inspections have shown signs of slowing, limiting one potential source of demand during harvest. 4. The Recent Uptrend Has Stalled December corn has retreated from the $5.49¾ contract high, and recent technical analysis has identified signs that bullish momentum has weakened. 5. A Break Below $5.23 Could Increase Downside Pressure The $5.23¼ area is an important near-term support level. A sustained break lower could increase attention toward the $5.20 area and ultimately the $5.09 chart support level. Corn Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching The immediate technical battle is centred on the $5.30-$5.40 region. A recovery through $5.40 would put the $5.44-$5.45 resistance zone back into focus, while a sustained move through that area would increase attention on the $5.49¾ contract high. A break above the contract high would represent an important technical development, with Reuters identifying potential upside toward approximately $5.48¾-$5.52¼ if resistance around $5.43 is overcome. On the downside, failure to hold $5.30 could expose $5.23¼, followed by $5.20. A deeper decline through $5.09 would weaken the broader technical structure and indicate that the recent rally has come under substantially greater pressure. The current technical map is therefore: Upside: $5.40 → $5.44-$5.45 → $5.49¾ → $5.52¼ Support: $5.30 → $5.23¼ → $5.20 → $5.09 Global Supply Versus US Harvest Remains Central Corn is currently being pulled in two different directions. The US harvest is increasing physical availability and creating seasonal pressure, while the global balance sheet is pointing toward a potentially significant production deficit. This divergence is important because the US remains one of the world's most important corn exporters. If the US harvest produces large yields and international demand remains subdued, prices could remain under pressure during the harvest period. However, if global demand remains strong while production problems persist in other exporting regions, the market could increasingly focus on declining global inventories rather than temporary US harvest pressure. The next several weeks should therefore provide important information about whether the global supply deficit is strong enough to offset the seasonal increase in US availability. Currency Hedger View Corn prices are particularly important for businesses exposed to agricultural commodities, food production, animal feed, biofuels and international agricultural trade. Currency movements can also affect the effective cost of internationally traded corn because global commodity transactions are predominantly denominated in US Dollars. For businesses purchasing corn internationally, movements in both corn futures and USD exchange rates can therefore influence the final cost of procurement. Currency Hedger focuses on foreign-exchange markets, currency risk management and market intelligence covering interest rates, inflation, commodities and geopolitical developments. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account:For businesses making international commodity payments or managing foreign-currency exposure, Currency Hedger can assist with planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account:For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding:Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Corn futures remain supported by a significant underlying global supply concern, with the USDA projecting consumption to exceed production by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27. However, the market is facing substantial near-term pressure from the advancing US harvest. With 8% of the crop already harvested and maturity running ahead of the five-year average, additional physical supplies are entering the market. The key issue for corn is therefore whether tightening global supplies can continue to outweigh the seasonal pressure created by the US harvest. Technically, $5.40 is an important near-term resistance level, followed by $5.44-$5.45 and the $5.49¾ contract high. On the downside, $5.30 and $5.23¼ represent important areas of support, while $5.09 remains the major level that would signal a deeper deterioration in the technical structure. For traders, the combination of the global production deficit, Black Sea disruption, Brazilian ethanol demand, US harvest progress and international buying will remain central to the direction of corn prices through the remainder of September. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 21, 2026

Wheat Climbs Nearly 2% as US-China Trade Optimism Raises Prospects for Agricultural Demand

Wheat climbed nearly 2% toward $7.30 per bushel in mid-September, rebounding from a three-week low recorded on September 18, as renewed US-China trade engagement increased optimism ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. Officials from both countries, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, met over the weekend. Bessent described the discussions as “very successful,” while Lifeng said the talks were conducted in a “good atmosphere.” US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in the United States on September 24, with agricultural markets closely monitoring whether the meeting produces additional commitments from China to purchase US agricultural products. US-China Trade Talks Support Wheat Prices The possibility of stronger Chinese purchases of US agricultural commodities is providing support to wheat futures. The Trump administration has said Beijing pledged to purchase at least $17 billion of US farm exports, in addition to a separate commitment to purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually. With soybean purchases already forming a significant part of those commitments, traders are assessing whether any additional agricultural buying could extend to other US commodities, including wheat. A further increase in Chinese demand for US wheat would provide an additional export outlet for American producers and could improve the demand outlook for the grain market. Bullish Sentiment The recent price rebound is being supported by improving expectations surrounding US-China trade relations and the possibility of additional Chinese agricultural purchases. Bullish FactorPotential Market ImpactUS-China trade discussionsImproves expectations for agricultural tradePotential Chinese wheat purchasesCould strengthen export demand$17 billion US farm-export commitmentProvides broader support for US agricultural commodities25 million-tonne annual soybean commitmentDemonstrates China's potential agricultural buying capacityTrump-Xi meetingCreates scope for additional trade commitmentsRebound from three-week lowIndicates renewed buying interest Bearish Sentiment Despite the rebound, wheat remains exposed to uncertainty surrounding the actual scale and timing of any additional Chinese purchases. The reported agricultural commitments do not necessarily guarantee significant additional demand for wheat, particularly if China's future purchases remain concentrated in soybeans or other agricultural commodities. The market could therefore experience renewed selling if the Trump-Xi meeting fails to produce further commitments. Wheat prices also remain sensitive to global production, export competition, weather conditions and broader agricultural market sentiment. Any deterioration in expectations for US agricultural exports could reduce the support generated by the latest trade developments. Wheat Market Outlook Wheat enters the latest session with a more constructive tone after recovering nearly 2%, with the market focusing heavily on developments in US-China trade relations. The upcoming Trump-Xi meeting on September 24 will be particularly important for agricultural markets as traders assess whether China announces additional purchases of US farm products. While wheat could benefit from any expansion of agricultural buying, the scale of future demand remains uncertain. For now, the combination of improved US-China trade sentiment and the prospect of additional Chinese agricultural purchases provides a supportive backdrop for wheat. However, traders will continue to monitor trade announcements, export commitments, global supply conditions and broader agricultural demand before assessing whether the recovery can extend further. Currency Hedger Contributor For businesses involved in international agricultural trade, movements in commodity prices can also interact with foreign-exchange exposure, particularly where purchases, sales and supplier payments are conducted across multiple currencies. Currency Hedger, a contributor to Today Markets, provides foreign-exchange, international payment and currency-management solutions for eligible businesses with cross-border requirements. Currency Hedger: Currency Hedger Manage Your International Currency Exposure International commodity transactions can create exposure to both commodity-price movements and currency fluctuations. Currency Hedger provides eligible businesses with access to foreign exchange and international payment solutions designed to support cross-border commercial activity. Explore Currency Hedger: Open a Currency Hedger Account Today Markets View more: Today Markets

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September 21, 2026

Copper Extends Rally for Fifth Session as Chinese Demand Strengthens and Mine Disruptions Tighten Supply

Copper futures climbed to around $6.65 per pound on Monday, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session as stronger indicators of Chinese demand and concerns over tightening global supply continued to support the market. The Yangshan copper premium, an important indicator of physical copper demand in China, rose to $121 per tonne last week, its highest level since November 2022. The increase suggests stronger appetite for imported copper and provides a supportive signal for near-term physical demand. Longer-term demand expectations are also contributing to the bullish outlook. Copper consumption is expected to benefit from continued investment in data centres, electricity infrastructure, renewable energy and electrification, all of which require substantial quantities of the metal. Supply Disruptions Add Further Support The supply side is providing another source of upward pressure. Major copper-producing regions including Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have experienced disruptions at key mines, with operational problems, fatal accidents and severe weather affecting production. If disruptions persist, the market could face tighter availability at a time when demand expectations remain firm. This combination of stronger consumption and constrained production is supporting the recent upward momentum in copper prices. US Copper Tariffs Remain a Key Market Risk Traders are also monitoring developments surrounding US copper tariff policy, which could influence international trade flows, regional premiums and the distribution of available copper supplies. Changes in US trade policy could create distortions between regional markets, potentially increasing demand for copper in some areas while reducing flows into others. The uncertainty means tariff developments remain an important variable for copper traders. Bullish Sentiment The current bullish case is supported by several factors: Bullish FactorMarket ImpactHigher Yangshan premiumSignals stronger Chinese physical demandMine disruptionsRestricts global copper supplyData-centre investmentIncreases long-term copper consumptionRenewable energy expansionSupports structural demandElectrificationCreates additional copper requirementsFifth consecutive session of gainsConfirms strong recent price momentum Bearish Sentiment Despite the recent rally, several risks could limit further gains. Copper prices around elevated levels could become vulnerable to profit-taking if momentum slows. A deterioration in global manufacturing activity or Chinese industrial demand could also undermine consumption expectations. US tariff developments represent another potential source of volatility. If tariffs disrupt trade flows or weaken industrial activity, copper demand could be affected even while regional supply imbalances remain. A stronger US dollar could also weigh on dollar-denominated copper prices by increasing the cost of the metal for international buyers. Copper Outlook Copper enters the latest session with strong bullish momentum, supported by improving indicators of Chinese demand, mine supply disruptions and expectations of sustained structural consumption from data centres, renewable energy and electrification. However, traders should continue monitoring Chinese economic activity, Yangshan premiums, mine production, US tariff policy, the US dollar and global manufacturing data. These factors will help determine whether the current rally develops into a broader sustained move or encounters renewed selling pressure. For businesses with significant copper-related currency exposure, developments in the copper market can also have implications for international procurement costs and foreign-exchange requirements. Currency Hedger provides FX and currency-management solutions for eligible businesses operating across international markets. Today Markets View more: www.todaymarkets.com

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September 19, 2026

Nestlé Stock Outlook: Russia Asset Seizure Sends Shares Lower as Geopolitical Risk Returns to Focus

Nestlé shares fell nearly 3% after Russia placed the Swiss food giant’s Russian assets under temporary external administration, highlighting the continuing geopolitical and ownership risks facing Western companies that retain operations inside the Russian Federation. The move, which also affects French retail groups Auchan and Lemana Pro, formerly Leroy Merlin, places the companies’ Russian operations under the control of an entity called L.E.V. Management. For investors, the immediate issue is the potential loss of control over Nestlé's Russian assets, including local production and supply-chain operations. The longer-term question is how much value the company could ultimately lose if temporary administration develops into a permanent transfer of ownership. The news has therefore created both a fundamental corporate risk and a clear technical deterioration in Nestlé's share price. Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DevelopmentMarket SignalNestlé Share PriceShares fell nearly 3% following the Russia announcementBearishRussian AssetsPlaced under temporary external administrationBearish RiskL.E.V. ManagementTaking control of affected Russian operationsBearish RiskNestlé ProductionRussian facilities include Nescafé and KitKat productionNegativeGeopolitical RiskWestern corporate assets remain exposed in RussiaBearish RiskTechnical SupportMulti-month consolidation range has brokenBearishPoint of Control78.69 CHF has been lostBearishKey Recovery Zone77.00–78.70 CHFResistance / Confirmation Zone Russia Asset Seizure Puts Nestlé Investors on Alert The Russian government's decision represents a significant escalation in the risks surrounding Western corporate assets operating in the country. Under the presidential decree, the Russian operations of the affected companies are being placed under temporary external administration through L.E.V. Management. The Kremlin has described the arrangement as temporary external management. However, similar mechanisms have previously been used in cases involving Western-owned assets in Russia, creating uncertainty over whether companies will ultimately regain full control. For Nestlé shareholders, that uncertainty is particularly important because the company has maintained a presence in Russia despite substantially limiting its operations there. The potential consequence is not simply the loss of a revenue stream. Nestlé could also lose control over factories, supply-chain infrastructure and physical assets located within Russia. Nestlé's Russian Operations Face Increasing Uncertainty Nestlé's Russian business includes local production associated with major products such as Nescafé coffee and KitKat. The company's exposure therefore goes beyond a straightforward financial investment. Physical manufacturing facilities and distribution networks can be considerably more difficult to recover once effective control has been transferred. The immediate financial impact remains dependent on the ultimate treatment of the assets and the degree to which Nestlé is able to retain or recover their economic value. Investors will therefore be watching closely for any assessment from Nestlé concerning the potential effect on its balance sheet, revenue and future earnings expectations. The Broader Geopolitical Risk for Western Companies The Nestlé development also highlights a broader issue for multinational companies maintaining Russian operations. Switzerland historically maintained a policy of neutrality, but it adopted many European Union sanctions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Moscow has subsequently rejected Switzerland's traditional neutrality in its dealings with Russia. For Swiss companies operating in Russia, this creates an additional layer of geopolitical exposure. The latest action against Nestlé also comes alongside measures affecting Auchan and Lemana Pro, demonstrating that continued commercial operations inside Russia do not necessarily eliminate the risk of government intervention. The experience of other Western companies, including Carlsberg, Danone and Fortum, provides additional context for investors assessing the potential consequences of state intervention. Why the Nestlé Stock Reaction Matters The nearly 3% decline in Nestlé shares represents an immediate repricing of the risk associated with the company's Russian exposure. Investors are effectively having to consider whether the economic value previously assigned to those assets can still be realised. This is particularly relevant when a company owns physical infrastructure inside a jurisdiction where the government has established mechanisms for taking control of foreign-owned assets. The market response therefore reflects more than the potential loss of Russian revenue. It also reflects uncertainty over asset ownership, recoverability, future cash flows and valuation. Technical Analysis: Nestlé Breaks Below Key Consolidation The fundamental news has coincided with an important technical deterioration in Nestlé shares. According to the technical analysis provided by XTB, the stock has broken below a multi-month consolidation range while simultaneously losing its Point of Control at 78.69 CHF. The timing of the technical breakdown is significant because the Russian asset announcement appears to have provided the catalyst for increased selling pressure. The loss of the previous consolidation structure indicates that sellers have gained greater control of the short-term price action. The 77.00–78.70 CHF region now becomes particularly important. Until Nestlé can recover this range, the technical setup remains exposed to continued supply-side pressure. Bullish Sentiment 1. Russia Represents Only Part of Nestlé's Global Business The impact of losing or reducing exposure to Russia needs to be considered in the context of Nestlé's much broader international operations. The company is not dependent exclusively on the Russian market, meaning the fundamental impact could ultimately be contained relative to its overall global business. 2. A Recovery Above 78.70 CHF Would Improve the Technical Picture A sustained move back above the 77.00–78.70 CHF area would provide an important technical signal that sellers are losing control. A recovery above the 78.69 CHF Point of Control would also weaken the immediate bearish interpretation of the breakdown. 3. Further Corporate Guidance Could Reduce Uncertainty Investors are awaiting more precise information from Nestlé concerning the value and financial significance of its Russian assets. Greater clarity around the potential balance-sheet and earnings impact could reduce some of the uncertainty currently incorporated into the share price. Bearish Sentiment 1. Potential Loss of Control Over Physical Assets The biggest fundamental concern is that Nestlé may no longer have effective control over its Russian factories, distribution infrastructure and related operations. The longer such uncertainty persists, the more difficult it becomes for investors to assign a reliable valuation to those assets. 2. Russian Government Intervention Creates Additional Risk The use of temporary external administration introduces uncertainty over whether foreign companies can ultimately recover control of their Russian businesses. Previous cases involving Western-owned assets demonstrate why investors are closely monitoring the development. 3. Technical Breakdown Reinforces the Fundamental Shock The loss of the multi-month consolidation range and the 78.69 CHF Point of Control adds a technical dimension to the fundamental selling pressure. If the stock remains below the 77.00–78.70 CHF zone, the current supply-side advantage could remain intact. 4. Geopolitical Risk May Require a Higher Risk Premium The Nestlé case demonstrates that companies maintaining physical assets in Russia can face risks that are difficult to quantify using traditional earnings forecasts alone. Investors may therefore assign a greater geopolitical risk premium to Western companies with remaining Russian exposure. What Traders Are Watching Next The next developments for Nestlé shares are likely to centre on both the company's response and the technical structure of the stock. Key areas to monitor include: Nestlé management's assessment of the Russian assets Potential balance-sheet impact Effect on annual revenue and earnings expectations Whether control of the Russian operations remains temporary Developments involving L.E.V. Management The 77.00–78.70 CHF technical zone The 78.69 CHF Point of Control Whether the stock can reclaim its previous consolidation range Further geopolitical actions affecting Western-owned assets in Russia The interaction between fundamental news and technical price action will be particularly important. Today Markets View The Nestlé situation demonstrates how geopolitical risk can quickly become a direct equity-market issue. The immediate nearly 3% decline in the shares reflects investor concern over the potential loss of control and economic value associated with Nestlé's Russian operations. However, the longer-term impact remains dependent on how the Russian authorities ultimately treat the assets and how Nestlé accounts for the situation. Technically, the picture has also deteriorated. The break below the multi-month consolidation range and the loss of the 78.69 CHF Point of Control have strengthened the bearish technical setup. The 77.00–78.70 CHF region is now a key area for investors to monitor. A sustained recovery above that zone would change the immediate technical structure, while continued trading below it would leave the shares exposed to further selling pressure. For global investors, the broader lesson is that geopolitical exposure can represent a material component of corporate valuation when a company maintains physical assets in a jurisdiction where government intervention can alter ownership or operational control. The market will now focus on how Nestlé quantifies the financial consequences and whether the company can provide greater clarity over the future of its Russian business. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 19, 2026

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Recovers Toward $4,400 as Dollar Rally Loses Momentum

Gold prices are heading into Monday trading with renewed upside momentum after XAU/USD rebounded 0.89% on Friday and climbed back toward $4,379, recovering from the nearly two-month low of $4,235 reached earlier in the week. The recovery is notable because it comes despite the Federal Reserve delivering a 25-basis-point rate hike, taking its benchmark interest-rate range higher and reinforcing expectations that another increase could follow in October. Gold's rebound has instead been supported by a combination of softer Oil prices, a Dollar that has struggled to extend its recent gains and renewed demand for the precious metal amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty. However, the recovery is facing an important technical obstacle at $4,400. The US 10-year Treasury yield is also approaching 5%, creating a significant headwind for non-yielding bullion. The next moves from Federal Reserve officials, upcoming US economic data and changing expectations for the October rate meeting could therefore determine whether Gold can break higher or returns toward its recent lows. Gold Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalGold (XAU/USD)$4,379Mildly bullishFriday Change+0.89%PositiveFriday High$4,399ResistanceImmediate Resistance$4,400Key technical barrierNext Resistance$4,450Upside targetPsychological Resistance$4,500Major barrier100-Day SMA$4,320First major support50-Day SMA$4,288Secondary supportSeptember 16 Low$4,235Major downside levelUS 10-Year Yield4.996%Headwind for GoldDXY100.29Dollar remains elevatedOctober Fed Hike ProbabilityAround 55%Potential Gold headwind Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Rebounds From $4,235 Gold has staged a significant recovery after falling to $4,235 earlier in the week. The move higher accelerated on Friday as the US Dollar struggled to extend its recent gains and Oil prices retreated. XAU/USD reached approximately $4,399, bringing the psychologically important $4,400 level directly into focus. The recovery indicates that buyers have returned to the market, but the metal now needs to overcome resistance before the bullish move can develop into a larger trend. A sustained break above $4,400 would shift attention toward $4,450 and then $4,500. Failure to clear the level, however, could leave Gold vulnerable to another pullback. Why Is Gold Rising Despite the Fed Rate Hike? The Federal Reserve's latest rate increase would normally create pressure on Gold because higher interest rates can increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. However, the Gold market is currently being influenced by several competing forces. The Fed's decision has supported Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield approaching 5%. That remains a significant obstacle. At the same time, the US Dollar has struggled to extend its advance, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to encourage demand for defensive assets. This combination has allowed Gold to recover despite the Fed's more restrictive policy stance. The market is therefore balancing higher yields and tighter monetary policy against geopolitical risk and Dollar weakness. US Dollar Momentum Is Losing Some Strength The US Dollar Index remains elevated around 100.29, but has been unable to sustain a stronger advance despite the Federal Reserve's rate increase. That matters for Gold because XAU/USD is priced in US Dollars. When the Dollar weakens, Gold can become relatively more affordable for international buyers, potentially supporting demand. The latest retreat in Oil prices has also reduced some of the inflationary pressure that could otherwise reinforce expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. As a result, the Dollar has not received the full benefit that might otherwise have followed the Fed's latest decision. Treasury Yields Near 5% Remain a Major Gold Headwind The biggest challenge facing Gold remains the US Treasury market. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4.996%, approaching the important 5% threshold. Higher yields increase the relative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets compared with non-yielding Gold. If the 10-year yield continues above 5%, it could limit XAU/USD's ability to sustain a move through $4,400. Conversely, a decline in Treasury yields would remove one of the most significant obstacles currently facing bullion. Gold traders should therefore continue monitoring Treasury yields alongside the Dollar rather than focusing solely on the precious metal's technical chart. Fed October Rate-Hike Expectations Remain Important Markets are currently pricing approximately a 55% probability of another 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the October meeting. That expectation creates a potential headwind for Gold. If incoming US economic data remains strong and Fed officials continue to support additional tightening, Treasury yields and the Dollar could rise again. That scenario could place renewed pressure on XAU/USD. However, weaker US economic data could produce the opposite reaction by reducing expectations for additional rate increases. Next week's US calendar includes Federal Reserve speeches, jobs data, S&P Flash PMIs and Durable Goods Orders, giving traders several potential catalysts for the next major Gold move. Oil Prices Are Adding Another Layer to the Gold Outlook Oil markets remain closely linked to the current macroeconomic environment. Despite continuing concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, WTI prices have remained relatively subdued. Lower Oil prices can reduce immediate inflation pressure and therefore potentially reduce the need for additional aggressive monetary tightening. For Gold, this creates a complicated relationship. Geopolitical disruptions can increase demand for defensive assets, supporting bullion, while lower energy prices can reduce inflation expectations and potentially limit that support. The direction of Oil therefore remains an important variable for both the Federal Reserve outlook and Gold. Gold Technical Analysis: $4,400 Is the Key Barrier XAU/USD's immediate technical challenge is clearly defined. Gold reached approximately $4,399 on Friday before retreating, placing the $4,400 psychological level directly above the market. A sustained break above $4,400 would strengthen the recovery and expose: $4,450 → $4,500 The $4,500 level would represent another major psychological resistance zone. On the downside, the first important technical level is the 100-day SMA at $4,320. Below that sits the 50-day SMA at $4,288, followed by the September 16 low at $4,235. RSI Turns Bullish as Gold Recovers The Relative Strength Index has turned bullish as Gold rebounds from its recent low. This suggests that short-term momentum has shifted toward buyers. However, the RSI should be interpreted alongside price resistance. Gold can maintain positive momentum while still failing to break $4,400. A sustained move above that level would provide stronger confirmation that the recovery is developing into a broader bullish phase. Bullish Sentiment 1. Gold Has Recovered From $4,235 The rebound from the $4,235 low demonstrates renewed buying interest after the sharp correction earlier in the week. 2. RSI Momentum Has Turned Bullish The RSI is now favouring buyers, supporting the possibility of another attempt at $4,400. 3. A Weaker Dollar Can Support XAU/USD The DXY has struggled to extend its advance, providing Gold with some relief despite elevated US yields. 4. Geopolitical Risk Remains Elevated Continued conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East can increase demand for traditional defensive assets such as Gold. 5. $4,400 Break Would Open Higher Levels A sustained move through $4,400 would put $4,450 and $4,500 into focus. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Treasury Yields Are Near 5% The 10-year Treasury yield around 4.996% remains a major obstacle for Gold. 2. Fed Tightening Expectations Remain Elevated Markets are pricing around a 55% probability of another 25-basis-point rate increase in October, which could support yields and the US Dollar. 3. $4,400 Has Already Produced Resistance Gold reached approximately $4,399 before retreating, showing that sellers remain active around the psychological barrier. 4. A Break Below $4,320 Would Weaken the Recovery The 100-day SMA at $4,320 is the first major downside level. A sustained break below it would expose the 50-day SMA at $4,288. 5. September's $4,235 Low Remains Important A break below $4,235 would significantly weaken the current recovery structure and return the market's focus to lower technical levels. Gold Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Monday The central question for Monday is whether Gold can finally establish a sustained break above $4,400. The bullish pathway is: $4,400 → $4,450 → $4,500 A successful break through $4,500 would represent a further extension of the recovery. On the downside, traders will first monitor $4,320, corresponding with the 100-day SMA. Below this level, the focus moves toward: $4,288 → $4,235 The combination of these levels creates a clear technical framework for the start of the week. Gold, the Fed and Treasury Yields Remain Closely Linked The next major move in Gold is likely to depend heavily on expectations for US monetary policy. A more hawkish Federal Reserve could push Treasury yields and the Dollar higher, creating renewed pressure on XAU/USD. Conversely, softer economic data or less aggressive Fed commentary could reduce rate-hike expectations and allow yields to retreat. That would potentially give Gold greater room to challenge the $4,400-$4,500 region. Fed speakers and incoming US economic data will therefore be particularly important during the coming sessions. Currency Hedger View Gold's performance is closely connected to the US Dollar, interest rates and Treasury yields, making currency-market developments an important component of the bullion outlook. Currency Hedger monitors FX markets alongside central-bank policy, inflation, commodities, interest rates and geopolitical developments. For businesses and individuals with international currency exposure, changes in the US Dollar can directly influence the effective cost of Gold and other dollar-denominated commodities. With XAU/USD approaching $4,400, the Dollar and US interest-rate outlook will remain important variables for international buyers and sellers of Gold. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account:For businesses receiving or making international payments, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account:For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding:Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Gold enters Monday trading with a constructive short-term bias, but the recovery now faces its most important immediate test at $4,400. The rebound from $4,235 and the bullish RSI signal suggest that buyers have regained some control. However, the US 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% and expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase remain significant obstacles. A sustained break above $4,400 would open the way toward $4,450 and $4,500. Failure to clear the resistance zone could instead trigger another correction toward the 100-day SMA at $4,320, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,288 and the September 16 low at $4,235. For Monday, the key battle is therefore between $4,400 resistance and $4,320 support, with Treasury yields, the US Dollar and Federal Reserve commentary likely to determine which side gains the upper hand. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 19, 2026

Silver Price Outlook: Silver Holds Above Key Support as XAG/USD Targets $68 Resistance

Silver prices are heading into Monday trading with a constructive near-term bias after XAG/USD advanced on Friday and reached around $66.76, its highest level since September 10. Silver is also on track to finish the week more than 3% higher, although the broader technical picture remains cautious as trend strength continues to show limited conviction. The latest recovery has been helped by a pullback in the US Dollar as traders took profits following its strong weekly advance. However, elevated US Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance remain important obstacles for precious metals. XAG/USD is currently trading above both its 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, keeping the near-term structure constructive. At the same time, the RSI at 55 points to mild bullish momentum without indicating overbought conditions, while the ADX at 12 highlights the lack of a strong directional trend. The immediate upside level is $68.11, followed by $72.17 and the 200-day SMA at $73.18. Silver Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalSilver (XAG/USD)$66.76Mildly bullishWeekly PerformanceMore than +3%Positive100-Day SMA$66.00Immediate support50-Day SMAAround $63.00Key support23.6% Fibonacci$63.09SupportRSI55Mild bullish biasMACDSlightly negativeMomentum remains mixedADX12Weak trend38.2% Fibonacci$68.11Initial resistance50.0% Fibonacci$72.17Major resistance200-Day SMA$73.18Major resistanceHigher Fibonacci Level$76.23Upside targetHigher Fibonacci Level$82.01Major supply zone Silver Price Today: XAG/USD Rebounds Above $66 Silver has regained momentum after moving lower earlier in the week, with XAG/USD reaching $66.76 on Friday. The move has coincided with a weaker US Dollar during the session as traders took profits following the Greenback's strong weekly performance. For silver, movements in the US Dollar remain particularly important because the metal is priced in dollars. A weaker Dollar can make silver relatively cheaper for international buyers and can improve demand for the metal. The recovery therefore comes from a combination of technical support, Dollar weakness and renewed buying interest in precious metals. However, the rally has not yet developed into a strong trend. US Treasury Yields Remain a Major Headwind for Silver One of the main risks to the silver recovery is the level of US Treasury yields. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets such as precious metals. If Treasury yields continue to rise, silver could find it more difficult to extend its recent gains. The Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point rate increase has also reinforced the importance of US monetary policy for precious metals. The Fed has indicated that additional tightening may still be required to bring inflation back toward its 2% target, leaving markets sensitive to incoming US economic data and changes in interest-rate expectations. This creates a fundamental obstacle for silver even as its technical structure improves. Federal Reserve Policy Keeps Silver Traders Cautious The Federal Reserve remains one of the most important variables for XAG/USD. Higher US interest rates and expectations for further tightening generally provide support for the US Dollar and Treasury yields, both of which can weigh on precious metals. However, if markets begin to anticipate a less restrictive US monetary-policy path, the Dollar and Treasury yields could come under pressure. That would potentially provide silver with additional room to move higher. For Monday and the sessions ahead, traders will therefore continue monitoring the relationship between silver, the US Dollar, Treasury yields and Fed rate expectations. Silver Technical Analysis: 50-Day and 100-Day SMAs Hold The daily technical structure remains constructive because XAG/USD is trading above both the 50-day SMA near $63 and the 100-day SMA around $66. The 100-day SMA is particularly important because it sits close to the current market price. As long as silver remains above this area, the medium-term technical structure retains support. The 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63.09 create a second layer of support. Below these levels, attention would shift toward the broader structural low around $55. $68.11 Becomes the First Major Silver Resistance The first major upside obstacle is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $68.11. A sustained move through $68.11 would strengthen the recovery and place $72.17 into focus. The $72.17 area is particularly important because it corresponds with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, while the 200-day SMA at $73.18 creates another significant technical barrier immediately above it. A sustained break through this broader resistance cluster would significantly improve the technical structure and could expose the higher Fibonacci levels at $76.23 and $82.01. RSI Shows Mildly Bullish Momentum The Relative Strength Index currently stands around 55, which gives silver a mildly bullish momentum reading. Importantly, the RSI is not yet approaching overbought territory. This leaves room for additional upside if buyers maintain control. However, the RSI should be viewed alongside the other indicators rather than in isolation. The MACD remains slightly negative, suggesting that bullish momentum has not yet become decisive. Meanwhile, the ADX reading of 12 indicates a weak trend environment. The combination is therefore important: silver has a constructive bias, but the technical indicators do not yet confirm a powerful directional trend. Bullish Sentiment 1. Silver Is Trading Above the 100-Day SMA Holding above the $66 100-day SMA keeps the near-term technical structure constructive. 2. XAG/USD Has Recovered More Than 3% This Week The weekly gain demonstrates that buyers have returned to the market following the earlier weakness. 3. RSI Remains Above Neutral An RSI reading of 55 provides a mild bullish signal while leaving room for further upside before the market reaches overbought conditions. 4. $68.11 Is the Immediate Upside Trigger A sustained break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $68.11 could open the way toward $72.17. 5. A Weaker US Dollar Could Support Silver If the recent Dollar strength continues to reverse, silver could benefit as the metal becomes relatively more attractive to holders of other currencies. Bearish Sentiment 1. Treasury Yields Remain Elevated Higher US yields can increase the opportunity cost of holding silver and create a headwind for precious metals. 2. Fed Tightening Expectations Could Support the Dollar If markets increase expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, the US Dollar could regain strength and place pressure on XAG/USD. 3. ADX Shows Weak Trend Strength An ADX reading of 12 indicates that silver remains in a relatively weak trend environment. This means the recent advance has not yet developed into a clearly established strong trend. 4. MACD Remains Slightly Negative The MACD is still slightly negative, suggesting that upside momentum has yet to become decisive. 5. $68.11-$73.18 Represents a Significant Resistance Zone Silver faces several important technical barriers between $68.11 and $73.18. Failure to clear this region could result in another period of consolidation or a return toward support. Silver Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching Monday The $66 level is the first area to watch because it corresponds closely with the 100-day SMA. If buyers successfully defend this area, attention will remain focused on $68.11. A break above $68.11 would put $72.17 into focus, followed by the 200-day SMA at $73.18. A sustained move above $73.18 would then expose $76.23 and potentially $82.01. On the downside, a sustained break below the 100-day SMA would weaken the current structure and bring the 50-day SMA around $63 and $63.09 Fibonacci support into focus. A deeper move below this broader support zone would increase the importance of the structural low around $55. Key Silver Levels Bullish breakout: $68.11 → $72.17 → $73.18 → $76.23 Immediate support: $66.00 Secondary support: $63.09 / around $63.00 Major structural support: around $55 Silver, the US Dollar and Global Interest Rates Silver remains highly sensitive to the interaction between precious-metals demand, the US Dollar and global interest rates. The current environment is particularly important because the Federal Reserve has moved toward tighter monetary policy while Treasury yields remain elevated. At the same time, silver's industrial characteristics mean the metal is also influenced by global economic growth and manufacturing demand. This creates a dual market for silver: it can respond to precious-metals factors such as real yields and the Dollar while also reacting to industrial-demand expectations. For Monday, the interaction between these forces could determine whether the current move above $66 develops into a larger recovery or remains a short-term rebound. Currency Hedger View Silver's price is denominated in US Dollars, making the relationship between XAG/USD and the Dollar particularly important for businesses and individuals with international currency exposure. Currency Hedger monitors the FX factors that can influence precious-metals markets, including US interest rates, Treasury yields, inflation, central-bank policy, commodities and geopolitical developments. For clients with international payment or currency requirements, movements in USD can have a direct impact on the effective cost of silver and other dollar-denominated commodities. The current technical levels around $66, $68.11 and $73.18 provide important reference points as markets assess whether the latest silver recovery can continue. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Business Account:For businesses receiving or making international payments, Currency Hedger can assist with managing currency exposure and planning FX transactions around market conditions. Personal Account:For individuals with international currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to FX services designed around cross-border payment and currency-management needs. Visit Currency Hedger:Currency Hedger Business & Personal Onboarding:Currency Hedger Onboarding Today Markets View Silver enters Monday trading with a mildly bullish near-term structure, but the latest indicators suggest that the market has not yet developed strong trend momentum. Holding above the 100-day SMA around $66 keeps buyers engaged, while the $68.11 Fibonacci resistance represents the first major test of the current recovery. A sustained move above $68.11 would shift attention toward $72.17 and the $73.18 200-day SMA. Beyond that resistance cluster, the higher Fibonacci levels at $76.23 and $82.01 become relevant. However, elevated Treasury yields, Federal Reserve tightening expectations and a still-negative MACD could limit the advance. On the downside, $66 is the first important support, followed by the $63-$63.09 region and then the broader structural area around $55. The key question for Monday is therefore whether silver can convert its recent recovery into a sustained break above $68.11, or whether resistance and higher yields force another consolidation phase. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Banks

September 19, 2026

Taiwan Dollar: CBC holds rates but flags inflation risks – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Henry Hao report that Taiwan’s CBC kept its policy rate at 2.0% for a tenth straight meeting, signalling a patient stance. The bank slightly raised its 2026 inflation and GDP forecasts, sees strong growth from AI-related semiconductor demand, and suggests policy could stay unchanged in December but start hiking in Q1 2027 if price pressures persist. Neutral stance with upside risks "The Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% yesterday, in line with market expectations. The CBC, which meets quarterly, has now kept the policy rate unchanged for 10 consecutive meetings." "His comments suggest the CBC sees little urgency to tighten at present, judging the current policy stance sufficiently restrictive to contain inflation. The bias appears firmly towards maintaining a wait-and-see stance for now." "CBC slightly raised its headline inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.0% from 1.9% previously, reflecting expectations that global energy prices remain elevated and services inflation stays sticky. CBC expects inflation to ease in 2027 to 1.8%." "The CBC also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 11.5% from 9.5%. The economy expanded 14.2% in H1, supported by strong AI-related demand for semiconductors and robust investment growth." "Overall, the policy outlook appears closer to neutral than to an explicit tightening bias. Strong growth momentum should allow policymakers to focus on inflation risks if price pressures pick up in the months ahead."

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Banks

September 19, 2026

South Korean Won: Foreign equity flows keep KRW heavy against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes that the Korean Won remains under pressure as foreign selling of Korean equities persists and elevated US yields after the FOMC continue to weigh. Large-cap technology stocks are at the centre of outflows, though the broader KOSPI has held up. Wong highlights that easing US yields, a softer Dollar and lower Oil may cap near-term USD/KRW upside, but a sustained KRW recovery likely needs foreign equity selling to slow. Flow pressure weighs as USDKRW tests resistance "KRW weakened further as persistent foreign selling of Korean equities remained the main drag, while still-elevated US yields post-FOMC continued to weigh despite easing overnight." "Foreign investors sold another KRW2.3tn of KOSPI shares on Thursday, taking cumulative selling to around KRW14tn over the past seven sessions. Large-cap technology names remain at the centre of the outflows, even as the broader KOSPI has held up relatively well." "Nevertheless, the external backdrop has turned somewhat less negative overnight, with UST yields and the USD easing from their post-FOMC highs, while lower oil prices should also offer some relief." "This may temper further upside in USD/KRW near term, but a more sustained recovery in KRW probably requires foreign equity selling to slow." "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact, though RSI shows signs of moderation after the recent rise. Support at 1373, 1365 levels (21 DMA). Resistance at 1387 (23.6% fibo retracement of the sharp decline from Jul to Sep), 1410 levels (38.2% fibo, 50 DMA)."

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Banks

September 19, 2026

Japanese Yen: Dovish BoJ hike weighs on yen – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Japanese Yen (JPY) is down sharply versus the US Dollar (USD) after a dovishly delivered 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike and Governor Ueda’s cautious guidance. Markets are disappointed by the pushback against consecutive hikes, undermining efforts to rebuild confidence in the Yen. For USD/JPY, they flag key moving averages near 158–159 and the psychologically important 160 level, with support around 155. Yen slides as markets fade BoJ "The yen is weak, down 1.2% vs. the USD on the back of a dovishly-delivered hike from the BoJ as market participants digested a 7-2 vote along with a cautious and equivocal message from Gov. Ueda as he discussed the rate outlook." "The Gov. pushed back on expectations for consecutive hikes as he also struck a more patient tone in the overall assessment of the outlook. The dovish hike has disappointed markets seeking to rebuild confidence in the yen following a turbulent 2026." "For USD/JPY, we note the potential importance of the 50 and 200 day MA’s at 159.09 and 158.42, respectively, and highlight the critical psychological importance of the 160 level. Support is now once again expected at 155."

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Banks

September 19, 2026

Singapore Dollar: Strong NODX but USD still drives USD/SGD – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong highlights that Singapore’s August NODX surged 46.2% year-on-year, far above consensus, with electronics exports jumping on AI-related demand and broad-based strength across markets. OCBC Economists upgraded their 2026 NODX forecast to 20% year-on-year, but Wong notes this solid external backdrop is unlikely to drive spot near term. USD/SGD has eased with lower US yields and a softer Dollar, and future SGD performance will hinge on US yield and Dollar dynamics. USD/SGD guided by yields and Dollar "August NODX jumped 46.2% y/y, well above the 35.3% consensus and up sharply from 24.1% in July. Electronics exports surged 131.8%, led by AI-related demand for ICs, disk media products and PCs, while non-electronics also rose." "The strength was broad-based across most major markets, although a favourable base effect also contributed to the headline jump." "Our Economists upgraded our 2026 NODX forecast from 15.2% to 20% y/y, taking into account that NODX already surged 22.4% y/y in the first 8 months and even after factoring a moderation to 15.6% YoY for the remaining four months of the year." "The data reinforce an already solid external-growth backdrop but are unlikely to be the main driver of spot in the near term. Overnight, USD/SGD eased lower, taking cues from UST yields and USD. If UST yields continue to ease, SGD should be relatively well placed to benefit, while renewed USD strength/ higher UST yield would likely keep USD/SGD supported." "Daily momentum is bullish but RSI eased lower from near overbought conditions. A death cross appears to be in the making (50 DMA cuts 200 DMA to the downside)." "We watch further price action for confirmation for any bearish reversal or if bearish signals are being nullified. Area of resistance at 1.2790 (50% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high) - 1.2810 (50, 100, 200 DMAs). Next level at 1.2840 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.2740 (61.8% fibo), 1.27 (21 DMA)."

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Banks

September 19, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Pre-summit support and firmer bias – DBS

Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights that USD/CNH is easing toward 6.70 despite a stronger Dollar, with the Renminbi (RMB) supported by a lower USD/CNY fixing below 6.76. He links this to possible goodwill from China ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and expects RMB to strengthen further into next Thursday’s meeting as markets hope for an extended US–China trade truce. USD/CNH drift and Trump–Xi summit "USD/CNH has been easing gradually towards 6.70 in defiance of a stronger USD." "The stronger RMB is supported by a steady decline in the USD/CNY fixing to below 6.76 yesterday, which is perhaps a goodwill gesture from China ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington next week." "The US is also reportedly holding back a planned announcement of new tariffs related to alleged excess manufacturing capacity, at least until next week’s summit." "With the leaders set to discuss wide-ranging issues related to trade, Iran and AI, markets could hope for an extension of the US-China trade truce beyond November." "We expect Renminbi (RMB) to strengthen further into the Trump-Xi summit next Thursday."

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Banks

September 19, 2026

Singapore Dollar: Range trade persists against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that USD/SGD has slipped into a short-term range phase after a sharp pullback, with intraday trading expected between 1.2735 and 1.2775. However, the 1–3 week outlook remains constructive, with the advance from late last week intact unless 1.2710 breaks, and upside levels at 1.2800 and 1.2835 still in focus. Dollar-Singapore range but bias positive "24-HOUR VIEW: Following the sharp rally two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that “while strong momentum could outweigh the current deeply overbought conditions, it remains to be seen whether USD can reach 1.2800.” We indicated the following: “support is at 1.2760; the next support at 1.2740 should hold for now.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. USD pulled back sharply to 1.2738 before recovering to close 0.20% lower at 1.2758. The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. Today, USD is likely to trade between 1.2735 and 1.2775." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 1.2780), we highlighted that “the outlook for USD remains positive.” We also highlighted that “the levels to watch are 1.2800 and 1.2835.” Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 1.2710 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the advance from late last week is pausing."

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Banks

September 19, 2026

Malaysian Ringgit: External pressure but scope for reversal – OCBC

Christopher Wong at OCBC writes that the Malaysian Ringgit weakened during Thursday’s Asian session on a firmer US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields after the FOMC, with USD/MYR briefly trading above 4.10 in an orderly move. He notes some pressure eased as the Dollar and yields retreated and Oil pulled back. Wong expects cautious MYR trading if US yields and the Dollar rise again, but sees room for recent weakness to reverse as post-Fed moves settle and domestic fundamentals remain supportive. USD/MYR overbought as fundamentals support "MYR weakened on Thursday Asian time zone amid firmer USD and higher UST yields post-FOMC. USD/MYR briefly traded above 4.10, although the move remained orderly and there was little sign of Malaysia-specific stress." "That said, some pressure eased overnight as the USD and UST yields came off their highs, while oil also pulled back. Near term, MYR may trade cautious if UST yields and the USD push higher again." "But as the post-Fed rates move starts to settle, there should be room for some of the recent weakness to reverse, with domestic fundamentals still broadly supportive." "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI rose into overbought conditions. Lack of follow-through to the upside may see USD/MYR turn lower and close the earlier post-holiday gap." "Support at 4.0870, 4.0730 levels (50 DMA). Resistance here at 4.10, 4.12 levels"

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Geopolitics

September 19, 2026

Markets Week Ahead September 21, 2026: Fed, Trump-Xi Meeting, Middle East War, AI and Global Central Banks

Global financial markets enter the week of September 21, 2026 facing several competing macroeconomic forces, with the Middle East war, central-bank policy, US-China trade relations, AI investment and major economic data releases likely to dominate investor attention. Energy prices remain particularly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with disruptions to oil and gas supply creating inflation risks just as major central banks are attempting to manage price pressures. At the same time, concerns over the pace of artificial-intelligence investment could affect the technology sector, which has been an important driver of global equity markets, corporate credit issuance and commodity demand. The highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will also attract significant attention, particularly around trade, technology and the broader US-China economic relationship. The economic calendar is equally busy. The United States will publish durable goods orders, while purchasing managers' indices will provide fresh information on economic activity across the US, Eurozone, Japan, Australia and India. Australia will release labour-market data, India will publish infrastructure-output figures, and central-bank decisions are scheduled in China, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Mexico and Indonesia. Markets therefore face a week in which monetary policy, geopolitical risk, trade policy and economic-growth data could all interact. Global Markets Week Ahead Snapshot Market DriverKey DevelopmentPotential Market ImpactMiddle East WarOngoing conflict and supply risksOil & gas volatilityUS-China RelationsTrump-Xi meetingTrade & risk sentimentUS EconomyDurable goods ordersDollar & Treasury yieldsGlobal PMIsUS, Eurozone, Japan, Australia & IndiaGrowth expectationsUS AI SectorDebate over AI investment/advancementTechnology & creditChinaCentral-bank decisionYuan & Chinese assetsSwitzerlandCentral-bank decisionCHF & European marketsSwedenCentral-bank decisionSEK & European marketsNorwayCentral-bank decisionNOK & energy marketsMexicoCentral-bank decisionMXN & emerging marketsIndonesiaCentral-bank decisionIDR & Asian marketsAustraliaLabour-market dataAUD & rate expectationsIndiaInfrastructure outputINR & growth expectations Why Are Global Markets Focused on the Middle East War? The Middle East conflict remains one of the most important variables for financial markets. Energy prices are particularly sensitive to developments in the region because any disruption to production, transportation or export infrastructure can quickly alter global supply expectations. Higher oil and gas prices can feed into inflation through transportation, manufacturing and energy costs. That creates a difficult environment for central banks. If energy prices rise sharply while economic growth slows, policymakers face a potential combination of persistent inflation and weaker activity. Markets will therefore continue monitoring geopolitical developments for signs of further supply disruption or potential de-escalation. Oil and Natural Gas Remain Key Market Variables Energy markets are likely to remain highly reactive to geopolitical headlines. Higher crude oil prices can support energy-producing currencies and equities while increasing inflation expectations and potentially pushing bond yields higher. Natural gas markets are also exposed to developments affecting global LNG supply and transportation. For energy-importing economies, a sustained increase in energy prices can negatively affect trade balances and household purchasing power. For energy exporters, the same price movement can increase revenues and improve external balances. This creates significant cross-market effects involving commodities, currencies, equities and bonds. Trump-Xi Meeting Could Dominate Global Trade Sentiment The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be one of the week's most closely watched political and economic events. Trade policy will be a major focus, with markets monitoring developments involving tariffs, technology, industrial policy and supply chains. Any indications of reduced trade tensions could improve global risk sentiment. Conversely, renewed disagreement over tariffs or strategic industries could increase uncertainty for multinational companies and manufacturers. The implications extend beyond the United States and China. Europe, Japan, Australia, emerging markets and commodity-producing economies are all exposed to global trade flows. AI Investment Becomes a Major Market Question The rapid expansion of artificial-intelligence investment has been an important driver of technology-sector valuations and corporate capital expenditure. However, increasing calls to slow the pace of AI advancement could create uncertainty around future investment. The issue extends beyond technology companies. AI-related capital expenditure has generated demand across semiconductor manufacturing, data centres, electricity infrastructure, construction and commodities. A significant reduction in expected AI investment could therefore affect several sectors simultaneously. Financial markets will be watching whether concerns over AI development translate into actual changes in corporate spending plans. US Durable Goods Orders Take Centre Stage US durable goods orders will be one of the week's most important American economic releases. The data provides insight into demand for long-lasting manufactured products and business investment. A stronger-than-expected result could indicate resilient economic activity and potentially reinforce expectations for relatively restrictive US monetary policy. A weaker reading could provide evidence of slowing demand and increase attention on the broader US growth outlook. The reaction will also depend on how the data interacts with inflation, employment and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Global PMI Data Will Provide a Growth Check Purchasing managers' indices will be released across several major economies. The United States, Eurozone, Japan, Australia and India will all provide PMI data. These surveys are closely watched because they can provide an early indication of changes in manufacturing and services activity. A broad improvement in PMIs would suggest stronger global economic momentum. Weak readings, particularly across multiple major economies, could reinforce concerns about slowing global growth. Markets will also monitor the relative performance between manufacturing and services. Federal Reserve Policy Remains Central to Markets Although the week's US calendar is not dominated by another Fed decision, monetary policy will remain a major market theme. The Federal Reserve recently increased its federal funds target rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%. A majority of FOMC members projected another rate increase this year. Markets will therefore continue assessing incoming US data for evidence about whether another hike is likely. The combination of energy prices, economic growth and inflation will be particularly important. Higher energy prices could complicate the Fed's inflation outlook, while weaker economic data could increase concerns about excessive monetary restriction. China's Central Bank Decision in Focus China will be among the countries making a central-bank decision during the week. The decision will be closely watched against the backdrop of trade uncertainty, domestic economic conditions and Beijing's broader efforts to support growth. Chinese monetary policy can have consequences well beyond domestic markets. Changes in Chinese liquidity conditions can affect the yuan, Asian currencies, commodities and global risk sentiment. Commodity markets will also be watching for evidence that Chinese demand is strengthening or weakening. Mexico Central Bank Decision Could Move USD/MXN Mexico will also announce a monetary-policy decision. The peso remains particularly sensitive to the relationship between Mexican and US interest rates. Banxico's benchmark rate currently stands at 6.50%, while the Federal Reserve's target range is 3.75%-4.00%. The recent narrowing of the relative interest-rate advantage has already contributed to renewed pressure on the peso after it reached 16.98 per US dollar on September 11 before weakening toward 17.2. The upcoming Banxico decision could therefore generate increased volatility in USD/MXN. Switzerland, Sweden and Norway Also Set to Decide Rates Several European central banks will also be in focus. Switzerland's central-bank decision will be particularly important for the Swiss franc and European currency markets. Sweden's decision will influence the Swedish krona and expectations for Scandinavian monetary policy. Norway's decision will be closely watched alongside developments in the energy market because of Norway's role as a major European energy producer. Changes in oil and gas prices can influence Norway's external revenues, inflation expectations and currency. Australia Labour Data Could Move the Australian Dollar Australia's labour-market figures will provide an important assessment of economic conditions. Employment data can influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's future monetary policy. A stronger labour market could reinforce expectations for higher or more persistent interest rates. A weaker labour market could increase expectations for monetary easing. The Australian dollar is also sensitive to global commodity prices and Chinese economic activity, giving the currency multiple potential drivers during the week. India Infrastructure Output Provides Growth Signal India will publish infrastructure-output data. Infrastructure activity remains an important indicator of the country's domestic investment cycle. Stronger infrastructure production could reinforce expectations of sustained economic growth. The Indian rupee will also be influenced by oil prices because India is a major energy importer. Higher crude prices can increase the country's import bill and create pressure on the external balance. Bullish Sentiment 1. Global Economic Activity Could Remain Resilient PMI data from major economies could provide evidence that global growth remains relatively strong. 2. US Manufacturing Demand Could Remain Firm Stronger durable goods orders would indicate continued business and consumer demand. 3. US-China Dialogue Could Improve Trade Sentiment A constructive Trump-Xi meeting could reduce some uncertainty surrounding global trade. 4. Strong AI Investment Continues to Support Technology Continued corporate spending on AI infrastructure could support technology stocks, semiconductor demand and related commodities. 5. Central Banks Could Provide Additional Policy Support Decisions across China, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Mexico and Indonesia could create opportunities for easing depending on individual economic conditions. Bearish Sentiment 1. Middle East Conflict Could Drive Energy Prices Higher Further supply disruptions could increase oil and gas prices and reignite inflation concerns. 2. Higher Energy Prices Could Complicate Monetary Policy Central banks could face renewed inflation pressure even as economic growth slows. 3. US-China Trade Tensions Could Escalate Disagreements over tariffs, technology or strategic industries could weaken global trade sentiment. 4. AI Investment Concerns Could Affect Technology Stocks Reduced expectations for AI capital expenditure could pressure sectors that have benefited from the investment boom. 5. Weak PMI Data Could Reinforce Global Growth Concerns Broad deterioration in business activity would increase concerns about the global economic outlook. 6. Central-Bank Divergence Could Increase Currency Volatility Different monetary-policy paths could create sharp moves across major and emerging-market currencies. The Week Ahead Is Dominated by Four Major Themes Global markets are entering the week with four interconnected themes. The first is geopolitical risk, particularly the Middle East conflict and its implications for energy prices. The second is monetary policy, with several central banks making decisions while markets assess the implications of the Fed's latest rate increase. The third is US-China relations, with the Trump-Xi meeting potentially influencing trade, technology and global risk sentiment. The fourth is economic growth, with durable goods orders and PMI data providing fresh information about the strength of major economies. These themes are closely connected. Higher energy prices could increase inflation. Higher inflation could influence central-bank policy. Tighter monetary policy could affect growth. Slower growth could then influence commodity demand, currencies and equity markets. Currency Markets Face a Particularly Volatile Week Currency markets could experience increased volatility as several central banks make policy decisions while the Federal Reserve remains focused on inflation. The US dollar will be influenced by US economic data and expectations for another Fed hike. The Mexican peso will be sensitive to Banxico. The Australian dollar will respond to employment data as well as commodity and Chinese-growth developments. The Norwegian krone could respond to both monetary policy and energy prices. The Swiss franc and Swedish krona will be affected by their respective central-bank decisions. This divergence creates a particularly important environment for international businesses managing currency exposure. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger, the FX specialist division of Octalas Group, will be monitoring the week's central-bank decisions, economic data, energy markets and geopolitical developments for their potential impact on global currencies. The combination of the Fed's 3.75%-4.00% target range, Mexico's 6.50% benchmark rate, upcoming European and Asian central-bank decisions and continued Middle East uncertainty creates multiple potential sources of currency volatility. For businesses making international payments, receiving overseas revenues or holding exposure across multiple currencies, these movements can materially affect transaction costs and cash flows. Currency Hedger provides managed FX services and market intelligence for business and personal clients, with analysis focused on interest rates, central-bank policy, commodities, inflation, geopolitics and global currency markets. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency requirements and provides personal clients with FX solutions for cross-border transfers and foreign-currency needs. The service combines FX execution with market intelligence to help clients understand the factors driving currency markets. Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger What Traders Are Watching This Week Middle East Developments Any escalation or de-escalation could have an immediate impact on energy prices and global risk sentiment. Trump-Xi Meeting Markets will monitor developments on trade, tariffs, technology and supply chains. US Durable Goods Orders The data will provide a fresh indication of US business and consumer demand. Global PMI Releases PMIs from the US, Eurozone, Japan, Australia and India will provide a broad assessment of global economic momentum. Central-Bank Decisions China, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Mexico and Indonesia will all be in focus. Australian Employment Labour-market data could influence expectations for Australian monetary policy and the Australian dollar. Indian Infrastructure Output The data will provide another indication of the strength of India's investment cycle. AI Investment Markets will monitor whether concerns about slowing AI advancement begin affecting technology-sector investment expectations. Today Markets View The week beginning September 21, 2026 is set to be dominated by the interaction between geopolitics, monetary policy, trade and economic growth. The Middle East war remains the immediate energy-market risk, while the Trump-Xi meeting introduces an important potential catalyst for global trade and risk sentiment. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's 3.75%-4.00% interest-rate range and the possibility of another hike keep US monetary policy at the centre of global currency and bond markets. The week's central-bank decisions across China, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Mexico and Indonesia could create additional currency volatility, particularly where policy paths diverge from the Federal Reserve. Economic data will provide another critical layer. US durable goods orders and global PMI releases will help determine whether economic activity remains resilient or whether signs of slowing growth are becoming more widespread. Meanwhile, Australia's labour data and India's infrastructure output will provide important regional growth signals. The major market question is therefore whether geopolitical and inflationary pressures remain dominant, or whether economic-growth and monetary-policy developments begin to take greater control of markets. “The week ahead brings together almost every major market driver at once: energy and geopolitical risk, central-bank policy, US-China trade relations, AI investment and high-impact economic data. Currency markets are likely to remain particularly sensitive as investors reassess interest-rate differentials across the major economies.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 19, 2026

Lithium Price Forecast: Lithium Carbonate Falls to 8-Month Low as China Supply Outlook Improves

Lithium carbonate prices in China fell below CNY 135,000 per tonne in September, reaching their lowest level of the year as a major upward revision to Chinese stockpiles caused markets to reassess the global supply outlook. The revision came after industry group SMM changed its methodology for compiling inventory data, resulting in a 175,000-ton increase in reported Chinese stockpiles. The adjustment was approximately double previous estimates and significantly changed perceptions of available supply. Additional pressure came from a stronger outlook for Australian lithium production. Mineral Resources restarted the Bald Hill lithium mine following an 18-month suspension, while Core Lithium restarted its Finniss project. However, the decline in lithium prices has been limited by renewed disruption at CATL's Jianxiawo mine, China's largest lithium mine by capacity and a significant source of global supply. Chinese authorities revoked environmental approvals for the mine, extending uncertainty around its ability to resume or expand operations. The developments come as Beijing continues its campaign against excessive industrial capacity and what it describes as disorderly competition. The lithium market is therefore being pulled between rising supply expectations and renewed disruption at a major Chinese mine. Lithium Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalChinese Lithium Carbonate<CNY 135,000/tonneBearishPrice Position8-month lowBearishChinese Stockpile Revision+175,000 tonnesBearishPrevious Inventory Estimate~87,500 tonnesBearishBald Hill MineRestartedBearishBald Hill Suspension18 monthsSupply returningFinniss ProjectRestartedBearishCATL Jianxiawo MineDisruptedBullishJianxiawo Global Supply~4%BullishEnvironmental ApprovalRevokedBullishChinese Anti-Involution CampaignOngoingPotentially bullishChinese Supply OutlookMore comfortableBearish Why Is Lithium Falling Today? The primary catalyst behind the latest lithium decline is the sharp upward revision to Chinese inventories. SMM changed its methodology for compiling stockpile data, resulting in an additional 175,000 tonnes being incorporated into reported Chinese inventories. The increase was approximately twice previous estimates. For lithium traders, the revision materially changes the perceived balance between supply and demand. Higher inventories indicate that more lithium carbonate is available within the Chinese market than previously believed. That reduces concerns about immediate supply shortages and creates additional pressure on prices. The market is now reassessing whether the recent lithium recovery can be sustained in an environment of greater-than-expected stockpiles. Chinese Lithium Stockpiles Rise Sharply The inventory revision has become one of the most important bearish developments for the lithium market. SMM's methodological change resulted in a 175,000-ton increase in Chinese stockpiles. Inventory data is particularly important for lithium because the market has previously experienced significant swings between perceived shortages and oversupply. Higher stockpiles mean manufacturers and downstream consumers have greater available supply. That can reduce their urgency to secure additional material and potentially weaken spot-market pricing. The revised inventory figures therefore provide a much more comfortable supply backdrop. Australian Lithium Supply Is Returning The supply outlook is also becoming more bearish because Australian producers are restarting previously suspended operations. Mineral Resources restarted the Bald Hill lithium mine after an 18-month suspension. Core Lithium has also restarted its Finniss project. The return of these operations increases the potential availability of lithium raw materials. If production ramps up as expected, additional Australian supply could eventually reach global markets and further reduce the risk of a shortage. For lithium prices, this represents a significant shift from the supply disruptions that supported prices during previous periods of market tightening. CATL Mine Disruption Limits the Downside Despite the increasingly comfortable supply outlook, the lithium market has not collapsed because of renewed disruption at CATL's Jianxiawo mine. The mine is China's largest by capacity and accounts for approximately 4% of global lithium supply. Chinese authorities revoked the environmental approvals required for the mine to continue operating or expand under its previous arrangements. That creates uncertainty over the timing of any potential restart. For a market already highly sensitive to supply disruptions, the loss of approximately 4% of global supply represents a meaningful bullish factor. The disruption is therefore offsetting some of the bearish impact created by higher Chinese inventories and Australian production restarts. China's Anti-Involution Campaign Adds a New Variable The Jianxiawo situation is also occurring against the backdrop of China's broader campaign against industrial overcapacity. Beijing has been attempting to address what it views as excessive competition and inefficient production across several industrial sectors. For lithium, this could have important implications. If authorities restrict inefficient or environmentally non-compliant production, supply growth could become more constrained even when inventories remain high. That could eventually create a tighter market. However, the immediate impact is difficult to determine because the inventory revision has already significantly increased the estimated amount of lithium available in China. Lithium Market Is Moving From Shortage Concerns Toward Supply Comfort The latest price decline highlights how quickly lithium market expectations can change. Previously, investors focused heavily on mine disruptions, constrained production and the potential for stronger electric-vehicle demand. The latest inventory revision has shifted attention toward the opposite side of the market. Chinese stockpiles are now estimated to be substantially higher than previously reported. At the same time, Australian production is returning. This combination creates a more comfortable near-term supply environment. However, the CATL mine disruption means the market cannot yet assume that supply will continue expanding without interruption. Lithium Demand Remains Critical While supply developments are currently dominating price action, demand remains an important longer-term driver. Lithium is a critical raw material for rechargeable batteries and therefore remains closely linked to electric-vehicle production, battery manufacturing and energy-storage investment. If battery demand accelerates, higher lithium consumption could eventually absorb some of the additional supply. Conversely, weaker EV growth or slower battery-sector expansion could leave the market with a prolonged surplus. This makes Chinese inventory levels particularly important. If stockpiles continue increasing despite stable battery demand, the market could remain under pressure. Australian Production Could Increase Global Supply The restart of Bald Hill and Finniss represents a potential increase in global supply capacity. Both projects had previously been affected by the challenging lithium-price environment. Their restart suggests producers see sufficient conditions to resume operations. However, the impact on actual global supply will depend on how quickly production ramps up. A mine restart does not necessarily translate into immediate full-capacity output. Traders will therefore monitor production guidance, shipment volumes and operating rates over the coming months. Bullish Sentiment 1. CATL's Jianxiawo Mine Remains Disrupted The mine represents approximately 4% of global lithium supply, making the disruption significant for the global market. 2. Chinese Environmental Approvals Have Been Revoked Regulatory action creates uncertainty over when the mine can fully resume operations. 3. China's Anti-Involution Campaign Could Restrict Excess Capacity Efforts to reduce inefficient production could eventually limit supply growth. 4. Mine Restarts May Take Time to Reach Full Production Although Bald Hill and Finniss have restarted, production may not immediately return to maximum capacity. 5. Lithium Remains Strategically Important to Battery Supply Chains Demand from EVs, batteries and energy storage remains an important long-term source of lithium consumption. Bearish Sentiment 1. Chinese Lithium Prices Have Fallen Below CNY 135,000 Per Tonne Prices have reached their lowest level of the year and an 8-month low. 2. Chinese Stockpiles Were Revised Higher by 175,000 Tonnes The substantial inventory adjustment significantly improves the perceived supply position. 3. SMM's Revised Methodology Indicates More Available Supply The inventory methodology change suggests previous estimates may have understated available Chinese stocks. 4. Bald Hill Has Restarted Mineral Resources restarted the mine following an 18-month suspension, adding potential supply. 5. Finniss Has Also Restarted Core Lithium's return to production adds another source of supply to the market. 6. The Overall Chinese Supply Picture Is More Comfortable Higher inventories and returning production reduce immediate concerns about shortages. 7. EV and Battery Demand Must Absorb Additional Supply If demand growth fails to keep pace with production, the market could remain oversupplied. The Lithium Market Is Being Pulled in Two Directions The lithium market currently has two very different fundamental narratives. The bearish argument is centred on the 175,000-ton increase in reported Chinese stockpiles, the restart of Australian mines and a more comfortable overall supply outlook. The bullish argument is concentrated around the disruption at CATL's Jianxiawo mine, which represents approximately 4% of global supply, combined with China's efforts to restrict excessive production capacity. This creates an unusual situation in which a major supply disruption is occurring at the same time as inventories are being revised significantly higher. The result is increased uncertainty over the true underlying balance of the lithium market. China's Inventory Data Is Now a Key Market Variable The change in SMM's inventory methodology means traders will be watching Chinese stockpile data particularly closely. The 175,000-ton upward adjustment is large enough to alter the market's perception of supply availability. Future inventory reports will help determine whether the revision represents a one-off statistical adjustment or whether Chinese lithium stocks are genuinely much higher than previously believed. If inventories continue to rise, the bearish interpretation could strengthen. If stocks begin declining as mine disruptions affect supply, the market could begin to focus more heavily on the potential tightening effect. CATL Supply Disruption Could Become More Important The Jianxiawo mine remains the most significant bullish counterweight to the higher inventory figures. With approximately 4% of global supply potentially affected, a prolonged disruption could eventually tighten the physical market. The duration of the regulatory restrictions will therefore be critical. If the mine remains offline for an extended period, other producers may need to compensate for the lost supply. If approvals are eventually restored, some of the bullish pressure could disappear. What Traders Are Watching Next Chinese Lithium Inventories Future SMM inventory reports will be closely monitored following the 175,000-ton upward revision. Jianxiawo Mine The timing of any regulatory resolution at CATL's mine will remain a major price driver. Australian Production Traders will monitor whether Bald Hill and Finniss successfully ramp up toward commercial production levels. Chinese Government Policy Beijing's anti-involution campaign could affect lithium production capacity and the behaviour of domestic producers. EV Battery Demand Electric-vehicle and battery production trends will determine how much additional lithium the market can absorb. Lithium Carbonate Prices The move below CNY 135,000 per tonne will remain an important reference point following the latest sell-off. Global Supply Balance The key question will be whether returning Australian supply and elevated Chinese inventories outweigh the impact of the CATL disruption. Commodity Markets and Currency Exposure Lithium is priced and traded through a global supply chain, meaning commodity-price movements can create secondary currency exposure for producers, manufacturers, exporters and international suppliers. For lithium companies operating across Australia, China and other major battery-supply markets, movements in the US dollar, Chinese yuan and Australian dollar can affect the effective value of international revenues, procurement costs and cross-border payments. A decline in the underlying commodity price can therefore coincide with significant FX movements, changing the economics of international transactions. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger is the FX specialist division of Octalas Group, providing managed foreign-exchange services and market intelligence for businesses and personal clients exposed to international currencies. For commodity businesses, FX risk can be particularly important because revenues, operating costs and financing can be denominated in different currencies. A lithium producer receiving US dollars while paying operating expenses in Australian dollars, for example, has a different currency exposure from a Chinese battery manufacturer purchasing imported materials in US dollars. Currency Hedger combines managed FX services with market intelligence, helping clients understand how interest rates, central-bank policy, commodities, geopolitical developments and global currency movements can affect international transactions. Currency Hedger does not provide investment advice or guarantee future exchange rates. FX markets involve risk, and businesses should consider their own circumstances and risk requirements when managing currency exposure. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Currency Hedger provides FX solutions for businesses making or receiving international payments, as well as personal clients managing cross-border currency requirements. For companies operating across commodity and manufacturing supply chains, effective FX management can help provide greater visibility over the currency component of international transactions. Currency Hedger Business Account For companies managing international payments, supplier invoices, overseas revenues or multi-currency exposure. Currency Hedger Personal Account For individuals managing international transfers and foreign-currency requirements. Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger Today Markets View Lithium prices have fallen below CNY 135,000 per tonne, with the market responding strongly to the substantial upward revision in Chinese inventories. The 175,000-ton increase in reported stockpiles has changed the immediate supply narrative, while the restart of Bald Hill and Finniss adds further potential production. However, the market is not facing a straightforward supply surplus. CATL's Jianxiawo mine, which represents approximately 4% of global lithium supply, remains disrupted following the revocation of its environmental approvals. China's broader anti-involution campaign could also eventually constrain excessive production and reduce the amount of inefficient capacity operating in the market. The key issue for lithium prices is therefore whether higher Chinese inventories and returning Australian supply outweigh the loss of production from Jianxiawo. For commodity companies and international battery supply chains, the lithium price is only one component of the financial equation. Movements in the US dollar, Australian dollar and Chinese yuan can materially change the effective value of revenues, procurement costs and international payments. Currency Hedger provides the specialist FX perspective, combining managed currency solutions with market intelligence for businesses and personal clients exposed to international currencies. “Lithium is facing a significant shift in market expectations after Chinese inventories were revised sharply higher. The restart of Australian production adds further supply, but the disruption at CATL's Jianxiawo mine introduces an important counterweight. The direction of lithium prices will depend on whether the newly identified inventory cushion proves sufficient to offset the loss of major Chinese production capacity.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 19, 2026

US Stocks Close Mixed as Treasury Yields Rebound and Energy Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Concerns

US stocks closed mixed on Friday as a rebound in Treasury yields renewed concerns about higher-for-longer interest rates, energy-driven inflation and a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. The S&P 500 edged 0.2% higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 95 points and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7%. Rising Treasury yields and renewed uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern oil supplies pushed fuel and natural gas prices higher, reinforcing concerns that another wave of energy inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The latest market reaction highlights the increasingly complicated relationship between US equities, Treasury yields, energy prices, inflation and Federal Reserve policy. While technology and semiconductor shares provided support for the Nasdaq, banks, asset managers and other credit-sensitive sectors weakened as borrowing costs moved higher. On the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 733 points, while the Nasdaq gained 2.6% and the S&P 500 advanced 0.7%. Why Did US Stocks Close Mixed? The primary driver was a renewed rise in Treasury yields as investors reassessed the inflation implications of elevated energy prices. Persistent uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern oil supplies has pushed crude oil, fuel and natural gas prices higher. This creates a difficult environment for financial markets because sustained increases in energy costs can feed into transportation, production and consumer prices. The Federal Reserve's latest rate decision has therefore become particularly important for equity investors. The Fed raised interest rates this week, while most FOMC members indicated that another rate increase could be necessary. That message has increased sensitivity across equity markets, particularly in sectors that depend heavily on financing conditions. Higher yields can also make government bonds relatively more attractive compared with equities, while increasing the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings. Treasury Yields Rebound as Energy Inflation Raises Rate Concerns The rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield was one of the most important developments for Friday's session. The move came as energy markets remained under pressure from uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern supply. Higher oil and natural gas prices raise concerns about renewed inflation, particularly if elevated prices persist for an extended period. For investors, the problem is straightforward. If energy prices remain elevated, inflation could prove more persistent than previously expected. That could force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer or potentially deliver another rate increase. This creates a particularly important risk for high-growth technology companies whose valuations are more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Nasdaq Outperforms as Chipmakers Offset AI Stock Losses Despite the rise in Treasury yields, the Nasdaq gained 0.7% on Friday. The technology-heavy index received support from semiconductor companies, with Broadcom rising 3% and Micron gaining 3.9%. The strength in chipmakers helped offset weakness elsewhere within the technology sector. AI-related companies have increasingly relied on significant capital expenditure to expand computing infrastructure, data centers and artificial intelligence capabilities. That spending has also resulted in substantial debt issuance across some of the industry's largest companies. Higher borrowing costs therefore represent an important consideration for investors assessing the sustainability of the current AI investment cycle. AI Hyperscalers Face Pressure From Rising Debt Costs AI hyperscalers were mostly lower as concerns over their growing capital expenditure and debt issuance weighed on sentiment. Meta fell 2.4%, while Oracle declined 2%. The companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure are committing enormous amounts of capital toward data centers, networking equipment, chips and computing capacity. Although the long-term demand for AI infrastructure remains a major market theme, rising Treasury yields can increase the cost of financing those investments. This creates two competing forces for technology stocks: AI investment and earnings growth can support valuations. Higher interest rates and financing costs can pressure valuations. Friday's session demonstrated this divergence, with semiconductor stocks gaining while several major AI-related companies declined. Banks and Asset Managers Fall as Credit Conditions Tighten Credit-sensitive sectors underperformed as yields moved higher. Bank of America declined 0.8%, while Goldman Sachs fell 1%. Higher interest rates can have mixed effects on banks. While elevated rates can support lending margins in some circumstances, tighter financial conditions can also reduce credit demand and increase concerns about borrowers' ability to service debt. Asset managers and other financial companies are similarly sensitive to market liquidity, credit conditions and investor risk appetite. The weakness in financial shares therefore provided another indication that Friday's session was not simply a broad risk-on move despite the gains in the major technology indices. S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Weekly Performance The three major US equity benchmarks produced different results over the week. US Stock IndexFriday MoveWeekly MoveMarket SignalS&P 500+0.2%+0.7%Resilient despite yield concernsNasdaq Composite+0.7%+2.6%Technology and semiconductors provided supportDow Jones-95 points-733 pointsGreater sensitivity to economic and financial conditions The weekly performance demonstrates that the technology sector continues to provide significant support for US equities even while concerns over interest rates and energy inflation remain elevated. Energy Prices Are Becoming a Major Equity Market Risk Energy markets have become increasingly important for US stocks because higher oil and natural gas prices can influence both inflation and corporate costs. A sustained increase in energy prices can affect: Consumer purchasing power Transportation costs Manufacturing expenses Corporate profit margins Inflation expectations Treasury yields Federal Reserve policy Equity valuations The current environment is therefore more complicated than a simple relationship between economic growth and stock prices. If energy prices remain elevated, investors may have to price in both higher inflation and tighter monetary policy. Federal Reserve Policy Remains Central to the Equity Outlook The Federal Reserve's latest rate increase has shifted the focus toward what happens next. Most FOMC members indicated that another hike may be required, meaning the market cannot assume that the latest rate increase represents the end of the tightening cycle. This is particularly important because equity valuations have benefited from expectations surrounding economic resilience, corporate earnings and AI-related investment. A higher-for-longer interest-rate environment could challenge those assumptions. The next major market debate will therefore revolve around whether energy inflation remains temporary or becomes sufficiently persistent to influence the Fed's future decisions. Bullish Sentiment 1. Nasdaq Continues to Show Relative Strength The Nasdaq gained 0.7% Friday and 2.6% for the week, demonstrating continued demand for technology stocks despite higher Treasury yields. 2. Semiconductor Stocks Remain Strong Broadcom gained 3% while Micron advanced 3.9%, providing significant support to the technology sector. Continued demand for AI chips, memory and data-center infrastructure remains an important bullish factor. 3. S&P 500 Still Finished the Week Higher The S&P 500 gained 0.7% over the week, showing that rising yields have not yet translated into broad-based equity liquidation. 4. AI Capital Expenditure Remains a Major Growth Theme Large technology companies continue to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. If these investments generate strong future revenue growth, the earnings expansion could provide support for technology valuations even in a higher-rate environment. 5. Energy Supply Disruptions Could Support Energy Stocks Although higher energy prices create inflation risks, companies operating in the oil and gas sector can benefit from stronger commodity prices and tighter physical markets. Bearish Sentiment 1. Treasury Yields Are Moving Higher A renewed rise in the 10-year Treasury yield represents a direct headwind for equity valuations. Higher yields increase the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets while raising the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings. 2. Energy Inflation Could Force More Fed Tightening If oil and natural gas prices remain elevated, inflation could prove more persistent. That could increase expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. 3. Banks and Credit-Sensitive Stocks Are Weakening The declines in Bank of America and Goldman Sachs highlight pressure within credit-sensitive parts of the market. Further tightening could increase concerns over borrowing costs and credit conditions. 4. AI Debt Issuance Creates Financing Risk The enormous capital expenditure requirements of AI infrastructure are increasingly being financed through debt. Higher yields could therefore increase the cost of funding the AI expansion. 5. Middle Eastern Supply Risks Remain a Major Uncertainty Any further disruption to oil or natural gas supplies could push energy prices higher. That would create another inflationary shock for consumers and businesses while potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. The Key Conflict: AI Growth Versus Higher Interest Rates The US stock market is currently being driven by two powerful but opposing forces. On one side is the continued investment boom surrounding artificial intelligence, semiconductors and data-center infrastructure. On the other is the increasing cost of capital created by higher Treasury yields and tighter monetary policy. This conflict is particularly visible in the technology sector. Semiconductor companies can benefit from continued AI demand, while companies undertaking enormous infrastructure investments may face greater financing costs. The result could be increasingly selective performance within the technology sector rather than a uniform technology rally. What Traders Are Watching Next Investors will be watching several factors closely: US Treasury yields — further increases could pressure equity valuations. Crude oil prices — persistent energy inflation could influence Fed expectations. US natural gas prices — higher gas prices could reinforce inflation concerns. Federal Reserve commentary — markets will assess whether another rate hike is likely. AI capital expenditure — investors will increasingly focus on whether spending produces sufficient revenue growth. Semiconductor performance — chipmakers remain a key driver of Nasdaq strength. Bank earnings and credit conditions — financial-sector performance will provide clues about the impact of tighter monetary policy. Middle Eastern energy supplies — developments affecting oil and gas flows could quickly change inflation expectations. Currency Hedger View US equities are increasingly sensitive to the interaction between interest rates, Treasury yields, energy prices, inflation and the US dollar. For international investors and businesses, this creates an additional layer of currency exposure. A rise in US yields can influence the dollar, while higher energy prices can simultaneously affect currencies of major energy importers and exporters. Businesses with USD revenues, USD expenses, overseas investments or international supplier payments therefore need to consider the FX implications alongside their underlying market exposure. Currency Hedger provides a managed FX service designed to help business and personal clients manage currency exposure while keeping market developments at the centre of the decision-making process. The service considers factors including central-bank policy, interest-rate expectations, commodity markets, energy prices, geopolitical developments, macroeconomic data and currency movements. For businesses making international payments or receiving foreign currency, managing the FX conversion can be just as important as the underlying commercial transaction. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and provides access to managed FX and currency-market intelligence through its programme and regulated payment infrastructure partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information is not a guarantee of future exchange rates or market outcomes. Today Markets View US equities remain caught between strong technology investment and increasingly challenging macroeconomic conditions. The Nasdaq's 2.6% weekly gain demonstrates continued investor demand for technology and AI exposure, while the weakness in the Dow and financial stocks highlights the sensitivity of other parts of the market to higher yields and tighter financial conditions. The most important variable for the broader equity market may now be the relationship between energy prices and Federal Reserve policy. If Middle Eastern supply concerns keep oil and natural gas prices elevated, inflation expectations could remain under pressure and Treasury yields could stay elevated. Conversely, if energy markets stabilize, pressure on inflation and interest-rate expectations could ease. For now, the US stock market remains highly sensitive to every move in Treasury yields, energy prices, Federal Reserve policy and AI investment expectations. “The US equity market is increasingly being pulled in two directions — strong AI and semiconductor investment on one side, and higher yields and energy-driven inflation on the other. Treasury yields and energy prices will remain critical variables for equity investors.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 19, 2026

US Natural Gas Futures Rebound as Low Storage Builds, European Gas Shortages and LNG Demand Offset Cooler Weather

US natural gas futures recovered on Friday after falling to a one-week low, with October Nymex natural gas closing 1.1 cents higher at $2.86/MMBtu, up 0.38%, as pre-weekend short covering helped prices recover despite increasingly cooler US weather forecasts. The natural gas market remains caught between competing fundamental forces. Cooler US temperatures, record-high projected storage and rapidly rising domestic production are bearish, while below-average weekly storage injections, stronger US electricity generation, elevated European gas prices and the potential for increased US LNG demand provide support. October natural gas initially moved lower as weather forecasts shifted cooler for late September and early October. The Commodity Weather Group said above-average temperatures are now expected to cover a smaller portion of the South and Southeast between September 23 and October 2, potentially reducing air-conditioning demand from US power generators. However, European natural gas markets remain exceptionally strong, providing an important source of support for US gas through LNG exports. Natural Gas Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalOct 2026 Nymex Natural Gas~$2.86/MMBtu+0.38%Lower-48 Dry Gas Production113.8 Bcf/day+4.9% y/yLower-48 Gas Demand75.7 Bcf/day-0.6% y/yUS LNG Net Flows19.2 Bcf/day+0.7% w/wWeekly EIA Storage Build+44 BcfBullishExpected Storage Build+48 BcfBelow expectations5-Year Average Build+74 BcfWell below averageStorage vs. 5-Year Average+3.7%Adequate supplyStorage vs. Last Year-3.9%BullishEIA Oct Storage Projection3,985 Bcf10-year highEIA Oct Storage vs. 5-Year Avg.+5%BearishEuropean Storage69% fullBelow averageEuropean 5-Year Average85% fullBullishUS Electricity Generation94,427 GWh+16.1% y/yUS Gas Rigs1343-year high Why Are US Natural Gas Futures Rising Today? Friday's recovery was driven partly by pre-weekend short covering, but the market also received support from tighter-than-expected US storage injections and elevated European gas prices. The EIA reported a 44 Bcf increase in US natural gas inventories for the week ending September 11. That was below the expected 48 Bcf increase and significantly below the 74 Bcf five-year average build. A smaller-than-normal injection is generally supportive because it means less gas is being added to storage ahead of winter. However, the broader storage situation remains comfortable. Inventories were still 3.7% above the five-year seasonal average as of September 11. This leaves the market with a mixed storage signal: the latest weekly injection is bullish, but overall inventories remain adequate. US Natural Gas Storage Build Comes in Below Expectations The latest EIA storage report was one of the strongest bullish factors for natural gas. The market expected a 48 Bcf build, but inventories increased by only 44 Bcf. More importantly, the five-year average build for the same period was 74 Bcf. The 30 Bcf difference between the latest build and the seasonal average represents a meaningful tightening relative to normal seasonal patterns. Inventories were also 3.9% below last year's level. That provides a stronger bullish signal than the headline storage surplus versus the five-year average. However, natural gas traders must distinguish between a smaller-than-normal injection and an outright shortage. Storage remains 3.7% above the five-year seasonal average, meaning the United States is not currently facing an immediate inventory deficit. European Natural Gas Prices Provide Support for US Gas European natural gas markets are providing another important bullish influence. European gas prices surged to a 3.75-year high, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sharply reduced Middle Eastern gas supplies creating additional concerns ahead of winter. European storage is only 69% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of 85%. That leaves Europe significantly below its normal pre-winter inventory position. If European gas supplies remain constrained, European buyers could place greater value on LNG cargoes from the United States. That creates a potential transmission mechanism from European gas prices into the US natural gas market. Higher European prices can improve the economics of US LNG exports and encourage strong flows from US liquefaction facilities. US LNG Exports Remain a Major Demand Driver Estimated net flows to US LNG export terminals reached 19.2 Bcf/day on Friday, up 0.7% week over week. That represents a substantial source of structural demand for US natural gas. The stronger European gas market could potentially increase this demand if European buyers compete more aggressively for LNG cargoes. For US natural gas producers, LNG exports provide an increasingly important outlet for domestic production. This means the US market is no longer determined solely by domestic heating and electricity demand. Global LNG prices and international supply disruptions can increasingly influence Henry Hub prices. Cooler US Weather Is Limiting the Near-Term Rally Weather remains one of the most important short-term variables. The Commodity Weather Group reported that forecasts shifted cooler on Friday, with above-average temperatures expected to cover a smaller part of the South and Southeast between September 23 and October 2. That matters because late-summer heat supports electricity demand for air conditioning. When temperatures moderate, gas-fired power generation can decline. The result is lower natural gas demand from electricity providers. This explains why prices initially moved lower on Friday before recovering later in the session. A Potential Super El Niño Is a Medium-Term Bearish Risk The weather outlook becomes even more important looking toward the winter. The market is increasingly focused on the potential for a “Super El Niño” to produce warmer-than-normal conditions across the Northern Hemisphere during the fall and winter. Warmer weather would reduce demand for natural gas used for residential and commercial heating. That would leave more gas available for storage and could weaken winter pricing. For natural gas, this is a particularly important bearish risk because the market is heading into the period when heating demand normally becomes the dominant seasonal driver. If winter temperatures are significantly warmer than normal, the large storage position could become even more comfortable. US Natural Gas Production Is Rising US lower-48 dry gas production reached 113.8 Bcf/day on Friday, according to BNEF. That represents a 4.9% year-over-year increase. Rising production is one of the biggest structural bearish factors facing the US natural gas market. More domestic supply makes it easier to replenish storage and reduces the probability of a severe winter supply shortage. The market therefore needs demand growth, particularly from LNG exports and power generation, to absorb the additional production. US Gas Demand Is Slightly Lower Lower-48 state natural gas demand was estimated at 75.7 Bcf/day, down 0.6% year over year. That decline reinforces the pressure created by rising production. If production is increasing while domestic consumption is flat or falling, additional gas must be absorbed by storage or exports. LNG therefore becomes increasingly important. The stronger European market is helping provide an outlet for some of that excess supply. US Electricity Generation Provides a Bullish Signal Electricity demand remains one of the strongest supportive factors. The Edison Electric Institute reported US lower-48 electricity output of 94,427 GWh for the week ending September 12, an increase of 16.1% year over year. Over the preceding 52 weeks, electricity output increased 3.3% to 4,405,549 GWh. Higher electricity generation can support natural gas demand from gas-fired power plants. However, the relationship is highly dependent on weather. If temperatures become cooler and power demand declines, gas-fired generation could also weaken. EIA Sees Record-High October Storage The longer-term storage outlook remains one of the biggest bearish factors. The EIA projected that US natural gas inventories could reach 3,985 Bcf at the end of October. That would represent the highest October storage level in 10 years and approximately 5% above the five-year average. Such a large inventory cushion would significantly reduce fears of a winter shortage. It would also leave the market with substantial gas available if winter demand disappoints. This is why the weather forecast is so important. A mild winter combined with near-record storage could place significant downward pressure on natural gas prices. US Gas Production Could Rise Further in 2027 The EIA also raised its 2027 US dry natural gas production forecast to 116.0 Bcf/day, up from its previous estimate of 115.3 Bcf/day. That represents another bearish structural factor. The market is therefore facing the possibility of continued production growth even as storage remains relatively comfortable. Natural gas prices will need stronger demand from LNG exports, power generation or winter heating to absorb the additional supply. US Natural Gas Rig Count Reaches a Three-Year High Baker Hughes reported that active US natural gas rigs increased by two to 134 rigs during the week ending September 18. That matches the three-year high first established in February 2026. The rise in drilling activity is another indication that producers remain willing to invest in additional supply. In the medium term, higher drilling activity can increase production and place downward pressure on prices. However, rig counts do not translate into immediate production increases. The market therefore needs to monitor whether the higher rig count eventually translates into sustained production growth. Bullish Sentiment 1. EIA Storage Build Was Below Expectations Inventories increased only 44 Bcf, compared with expectations for 48 Bcf. That suggests the market absorbed more gas than anticipated. 2. Storage Build Was Far Below the Five-Year Average The 44 Bcf injection was well below the 74 Bcf seasonal average. This represents a significant tightening relative to normal seasonal patterns. 3. European Gas Prices Are Extremely Strong European natural gas prices have reached a 3.75-year high, increasing the incentive for LNG imports. 4. European Storage Is Well Below Normal European storage at 69% full is far below the 85% five-year average. That could increase demand for US LNG as winter approaches. 5. US LNG Flows Are Rising LNG net flows reached 19.2 Bcf/day, up 0.7% week over week. 6. US Electricity Generation Is Strong Electricity generation increased 16.1% year over year in the latest weekly data, supporting gas demand from the power sector. 7. Inventories Are Below Last Year's Level US gas inventories remain 3.9% below last year's level, despite being above the five-year average. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Production Is Up 4.9% Year Over Year Lower-48 dry gas production reached 113.8 Bcf/day, creating a significant supply cushion. 2. Cooler Weather Is Reducing Cooling Demand Forecasts for September 23-October 2 have shifted cooler, reducing the area expected to experience above-average temperatures. 3. Super El Niño Could Reduce Winter Heating Demand Warmer-than-normal winter conditions could significantly reduce natural gas consumption. 4. October Storage Could Reach a 10-Year High The EIA expects storage to reach 3,985 Bcf, potentially the highest October level in a decade. 5. Storage Is Already Above the Five-Year Average Despite the smaller weekly injection, inventories remain 3.7% above the five-year seasonal average. 6. Natural Gas Demand Is Slightly Lower Lower-48 demand is running 0.6% below last year. 7. Gas Drilling Activity Is Increasing The US gas rig count has reached a three-year high of 134 rigs, increasing the potential for further production growth. The Natural Gas Market Is Being Pulled in Two Directions The current natural gas market has a clear split between tightening international conditions and comfortable US domestic supply. Europe is struggling with below-average storage and reduced gas availability, creating stronger demand for LNG. The United States, meanwhile, is producing gas at 113.8 Bcf/day, with storage already above its five-year average and potentially reaching a 10-year October high. That means the US does not currently have a fundamental shortage. Instead, the bullish argument depends heavily on LNG export demand, electricity consumption and the possibility that winter weather becomes colder than currently expected. The bearish argument depends on continued production growth, high storage and warmer weather. US Natural Gas Versus European Gas: The LNG Connection The divergence between the US and European gas markets is becoming increasingly important. Europe is entering winter with storage significantly below its historical average. The United States has comparatively comfortable inventories and rapidly growing production. That creates an economic incentive to move American gas into international markets through LNG. The stronger European price becomes, the greater the incentive to maximize US LNG exports. For Henry Hub, this creates a structural floor that did not exist to the same degree when US gas was primarily determined by domestic supply and demand. What Traders Are Watching Next US Weather Forecasts The market will closely monitor whether forecasts continue shifting cooler or whether renewed heat develops across the South and Southeast. Weekly EIA Storage The size of each weekly injection will be critical in determining whether the market is moving toward the EIA's projected 3,985 Bcf October inventory. European Storage Europe's 69% storage level versus an 85% five-year average remains a major LNG demand signal. US LNG Flows Higher LNG exports could absorb additional US production and provide support to Henry Hub. US Production The market will monitor whether production remains around or above 113 Bcf/day. Winter Weather The potential for a Super El Niño and warmer-than-normal Northern Hemisphere temperatures could become increasingly important as the heating season approaches. Rig Activity The 134-rig count indicates continued producer activity and will be watched for evidence of future supply growth. Currency Hedger View Natural gas is increasingly a global market, particularly as US LNG exports connect Henry Hub pricing with European and Asian energy markets. For businesses exposed to energy costs, LNG transactions, international suppliers or revenues in multiple currencies, the commodity price is only one part of the overall financial exposure. A move in the US dollar can materially change the effective cost of natural gas or LNG for companies operating outside the United States. Currency Hedger provides a managed FX service combined with market intelligence, helping clients understand the broader forces influencing currency markets, including interest rates, central-bank policy, energy prices, commodity markets and geopolitical developments. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Currency Hedger is designed for clients who want more than a simple currency conversion. The service combines FX solutions with market information and analysis, helping clients understand the factors influencing exchange rates and consider potential levels when managing their currency exposure. Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and operates through regulated payment infrastructure provided by its regulated partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information cannot guarantee future exchange rates or future market outcomes. Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger Today Markets View US natural gas futures recovered on Friday, but the market remains fundamentally divided. The immediate bullish signals are significant: the latest EIA storage injection was only 44 Bcf versus a 74 Bcf five-year average, US inventories remain below last year's level, European gas storage is well below normal, European prices are elevated and LNG flows remain strong. But the medium-term bearish picture remains equally important. US production has risen 4.9% year over year to 113.8 Bcf/day, storage is already 3.7% above its five-year average, the EIA expects October inventories to reach 3,985 Bcf, and the potential for a Super El Niño could reduce winter heating demand. The key variable is therefore whether rising US production can be absorbed by LNG exports, power generation and winter heating demand. If European gas remains expensive and US LNG flows stay strong, Henry Hub could retain support despite high domestic inventories. If cooler weather fails to materialize and the Northern Hemisphere experiences a warmer winter, the combination of high production and elevated storage could become increasingly bearish. “US natural gas is being pulled between a comfortable domestic supply balance and an increasingly valuable international LNG market. The next major price move will depend on whether European demand and US LNG exports can absorb rising production before winter heating demand becomes decisive.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 19, 2026

WTI Crude Oil Falls 1.6% as Middle East Diplomacy Eases Supply Fears Despite Tight Global Oil Markets

WTI crude oil futures fell on Friday as hopes for renewed Middle East diplomacy eased immediate fears of a prolonged supply disruption, although the broader oil market remains fundamentally tight because of disrupted Middle Eastern and Russian flows. October WTI crude oil closed $1.61 lower at $100.36 per barrel, down 1.58%, while October RBOB gasoline moved in the opposite direction, rising 2.03 cents to $3.51 per gallon, up 0.58%. The decline in crude came after oil had rallied to a 3.75-month high on Tuesday following the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's key East-West pipeline and escalating attacks on regional energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia is now seeking to restore approximately half of the pipeline's capacity within days, while reports that China privately asked Iran to help rein in Houthi militants added to hopes that disruption to Red Sea shipping and Middle Eastern energy flows could eventually ease. However, the bearish price reaction remains constrained by a much tighter global supply picture. Middle Eastern crude exports have been disrupted, Russian oil infrastructure has been damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks, Saudi crude exports have fallen sharply, and US gasoline and distillate inventories remain well below seasonal averages. Oil Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalOct 2026 WTI Crude$100.36-$1.61 / -1.58%Oct 2026 RBOB Gasoline—+2.03¢ / +0.58%Saudi East-West Pipeline7M bpd capacityPartial restart plannedMiddle East crude export disruption~2M bpdBullishRussian crude export disruption~2M bpdBullishSaudi August crude exports~3M bpd9-year lowSaudi August crude production6.238M bpdLowest since 1990US crude inventories0.8% above 5-year averageBearish/neutralUS gasoline inventories4.8% below 5-year averageBullishUS distillate inventories12.8% below 5-year averageBullishUS crude production13.944M bpdNear recordUS active oil rigs452+2 weeklyTanker-stored crude76.39M barrels1-year low Why Is WTI Crude Oil Falling Today? Friday's decline is primarily a reaction to reduced expectations of an immediate escalation in Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Oil markets had priced in increasingly severe risks after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was shut down following drone attacks. The 750-mile pipeline has capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day and provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative route for moving crude away from the Persian Gulf toward the Red Sea. Its closure therefore created significant concerns about the ability of Saudi Arabia to maintain exports if maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea became increasingly difficult. The prospect of restoring part of the pipeline's capacity has reduced some of that immediate risk premium. However, the underlying supply situation remains considerably tighter than it was before the latest disruptions. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline Becomes the Key Near-Term Supply Signal The East-West pipeline has become one of the most important factors in the current oil market. Saudi Arabia has indicated that it wants to restore approximately 50% of the pipeline's capacity within days. If successful, that would allow more crude to bypass the Persian Gulf and reach export terminals on the Red Sea. That would reduce the immediate pressure created by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The market is therefore watching the actual restoration of pipeline flows rather than simply the announcement. A faster-than-expected recovery would be bearish for WTI and Brent. A delay, technical problem or renewed attack could have the opposite effect. Middle East Diplomacy Is Taking Some Risk Premium Out of Oil Reports that China privately asked Iran to help restrain Houthi militants have added another potential path toward improved regional energy flows. The Houthis have targeted energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and moved toward the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a strategically important chokepoint at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Any reduction in attacks could improve shipping conditions and reduce the amount of oil being forced onto alternative routes. For crude futures, that would remove part of the geopolitical premium that has developed over recent sessions. However, the market remains highly sensitive to any deterioration in the situation. Strait of Hormuz Flows Are Critical Another important development came from the US Energy Secretary, who said approximately 18 million barrels of crude oil and refined products passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. That figure provides evidence that significant volumes are still moving through the world's most important oil chokepoint despite the wider regional conflict. Continued flows would reduce fears of a complete global supply shock. But any major deterioration around Hormuz could rapidly reverse that assumption. For oil traders, the distinction between reduced flows and completely disrupted flows is critical. Global Oil Supply Has Already Been Reduced The bearish reaction to Friday's diplomatic developments needs to be considered against an already constrained global supply environment. Vitol Group estimated that approximately 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude exports have been lost, while a further 2 million barrels per day from Russia have been affected by Ukraine's drone attacks. Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa data showed Saudi Arabia's August crude exports falling to approximately 3 million barrels per day, the lowest level in nine years. That represents a substantial reduction in physical supply reaching international markets. Consequently, even if Middle Eastern disruptions begin to ease, inventories and export flows remain important constraints. Saudi Crude Production Has Fallen Sharply Saudi Arabia reported August crude production of just 6.238 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990. The decline highlights how severe the recent disruption to Saudi energy infrastructure has become. Saudi Arabia remains one of the world's most important sources of spare oil capacity. When its production or export infrastructure is disrupted, the impact on global pricing can be disproportionately large. The ability of Saudi Arabia to restore production and export capacity will therefore remain one of the most important variables for crude futures. Russia's Oil Industry Is Also Under Pressure Russia is facing a separate supply problem. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure, damaging production and refining facilities. EA Analytics estimated that Russian crude-processing rates averaged just 3.51 million barrels per day in July, the lowest level in 24 years. Secondary-source estimates published by OPEC put Russian crude production at 8.89 million barrels per day in July, the lowest in six years. Russian gasoline production has also been under pressure. Reuters reported that August gasoline production fell to approximately 80,000 tonnes per day, equivalent to only around 70% of domestic demand, contributing to shortages within Russia. The combination of reduced crude production, refinery disruption and export constraints adds another layer of tightness to the global oil market. Oil Tanker Inventories Are Falling Vortexa reported that crude oil stored on tankers that had remained stationary for at least seven days fell 23% week over week to 76.39 million barrels during the week ending September 11. That was the lowest level in a year. Falling volumes of crude sitting stationary on tankers can indicate that previously stranded or delayed barrels are being moved into the physical market. This is potentially bearish from a near-term availability perspective. However, the low level also suggests there is less oil being held in floating storage as a buffer against additional supply disruptions. That creates another potential source of price volatility if geopolitical conditions deteriorate. US Crude Inventories Are Comfortable but Refined Products Are Tight The latest EIA data provide a mixed picture for US oil fundamentals. US crude inventories as of September 11 were 0.8% above the seasonal five-year average. That is not an exceptionally tight crude-stock situation. US production also remains extremely high. Crude output fell slightly to 13.944 million barrels per day, just below the record 13.947 million barrels per day recorded during the week of September 4. However, the refined-products picture is considerably tighter. Gasoline inventories were 4.8% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories were 12.8% below the five-year average. This helps explain why crude and gasoline futures are moving in different directions. RBOB Gasoline Rises While WTI Falls October RBOB gasoline gained 2.03 cents, or 0.58%, even as WTI crude declined 1.58%. The divergence highlights the importance of refined-product inventories. Gasoline stocks remain below their seasonal average, while crude inventories are comparatively comfortable. That can support refining margins and gasoline prices even when the underlying crude contract is under pressure. Distillate inventories are even tighter. At 12.8% below the five-year seasonal average, diesel and heating-oil supply remain a significant concern heading toward the colder months. US Oil Production Remains Near a Record US crude production continues to provide an important bearish counterweight. Output of 13.944 million barrels per day remains extremely close to the record level. That means the United States continues to supply large volumes of crude to the domestic and international markets. If US production remains near record levels while Middle Eastern supply disruptions ease, global supply conditions could become less restrictive. However, the current geopolitical environment creates uncertainty over how much of the apparent US supply cushion can offset disruptions elsewhere. US Oil Rig Count Rises Baker Hughes reported that the number of active US oil rigs increased by two to 452 rigs for the week ending September 18. That remains just below the 455-rig 1.25-year high recorded during the week of August 14. The increase indicates that US producers continue to maintain significant drilling activity despite the volatility in global crude prices. More drilling capacity is potentially bearish over the medium term because it can support future US production. But rig counts operate with a considerable lag, meaning they do not immediately solve a current physical supply shortage. Bullish Sentiment 1. Middle Eastern Supply Has Been Disrupted Approximately 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude exports have reportedly been lost amid the regional disruptions. That is a substantial supply shock. 2. Saudi Exports Have Fallen to a Nine-Year Low Saudi August crude exports reportedly dropped to around 3 million barrels per day, demonstrating the impact of the current disruptions on physical flows. 3. Saudi Production Is at a Multi-Decade Low August production of 6.238 million barrels per day was the lowest since 1990. 4. Russian Oil Infrastructure Is Under Attack Ukraine's continued drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are affecting both production and refining. 5. US Gasoline Inventories Are Below Average Gasoline inventories are 4.8% below the five-year seasonal average, providing support for refined-product prices. 6. US Distillate Inventories Are Even Tighter Distillate stocks are 12.8% below the seasonal five-year average, creating additional upside risk for refined products heading toward winter. 7. The IEA Sees a Larger Supply Deficit The IEA has raised its projected global oil deficit for the year to 1.7 million barrels per day, from its previous estimate of 1.3 million barrels per day. Bearish Sentiment 1. Middle East Diplomacy Could Restore Supply Any successful diplomatic progress that reduces attacks could allow oil flows to normalize. 2. Saudi Arabia Plans to Restore Pipeline Capacity A rapid restart of approximately half of the East-West pipeline would reduce the immediate supply risk. 3. Hormuz Flows Remain Significant Approximately 18 million barrels per day of crude and refined products reportedly passed through Hormuz on Tuesday. Continued flows reduce fears of a complete supply shutdown. 4. US Crude Inventories Are Above Average US crude stocks are 0.8% above the five-year seasonal average. 5. US Production Is Near a Record Production of 13.944 million barrels per day remains extremely high. 6. US Oil Rigs Are Increasing The active rig count increased to 452, suggesting continued investment in future US production capacity. 7. OPEC+ Has Increased Production OPEC approved a final 188,000-barrel-per-day increase for September, completing the restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts made in 2023. The IEA Sees Falling Demand but a Delayed Global Surplus The oil market is facing a particularly unusual fundamental situation. The IEA expects high prices and restricted supply to produce the largest annual decline in global oil demand since the COVID-19 pandemic. That is a significant bearish warning. Higher oil prices can eventually become self-defeating because they encourage consumers and businesses to reduce fuel consumption while increasing efficiency and substitution. Yet the IEA has simultaneously increased its projected oil deficit to 1.7 million barrels per day. The agency also expects the return of a global surplus to be delayed until 2027, later than its previous expectation of late 2026. This illustrates the central conflict in the oil market: Demand is being damaged by high prices, but supply disruptions are damaging the market even faster. OPEC+ Supply Growth Could Limit the Rally OPEC+ has already restored the 1.65 million barrels per day of supply cuts introduced in 2023. The group approved another 188,000 barrels per day of production increases for September and has indicated that output will then remain steady for the remainder of the year. Under normal circumstances, increased OPEC+ production would represent a significant bearish factor. The problem is whether producers can actually deliver those volumes while geopolitical disruptions continue. OPEC's August crude production fell 900,000 barrels per day to 19.91 million barrels per day, illustrating how difficult it can be for producers to maintain planned output when infrastructure and logistics are disrupted. Oil Prices Are Now Caught Between Supply Risk and Diplomatic Relief The latest crude selloff does not necessarily mean the underlying supply crisis has disappeared. Instead, Friday's decline reflects a reduction in the immediate risk premium. Traders are beginning to price the possibility that: Saudi Arabia restores part of its East-West pipeline capacity. Middle Eastern attacks decrease. Red Sea shipping conditions improve. Hormuz remains open. Russian export flows stabilize. US production remains near record levels. If those developments occur simultaneously, crude could face substantial downward pressure. But if even one of the major supply routes deteriorates again, the market could rapidly reprice the risk. What Traders Are Watching Next Saudi Pipeline Restart The speed at which the East-West pipeline returns to operation will be critical. Strait of Hormuz Flows Continued tanker traffic through Hormuz remains essential for global supply stability. Red Sea Shipping Houthi activity around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait will remain a major risk factor for crude and refined-product logistics. Russian Production and Refining Further Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure could reduce crude exports and refined-product availability. US Inventories Traders will monitor whether crude stocks remain above average while gasoline and distillate inventories continue running below seasonal norms. US Production Production near the 13.947 million-barrel-per-day record provides an important supply buffer. OPEC+ Output The market will watch whether planned production increases actually translate into additional physical barrels. Global Demand High prices could increasingly damage demand, particularly if crude remains above the $100-per-barrel threshold for an extended period. Currency Hedger View Oil prices and foreign exchange markets are closely connected. For businesses purchasing energy, selling commodities, importing refined products or receiving revenues in different currencies, a change in crude prices can be accompanied by a significant currency impact. The US dollar remains particularly important because crude oil is globally priced in dollars. A business buying oil in USD while generating revenue in EUR, GBP or another currency therefore carries both commodity-price exposure and FX exposure. Currency Hedger provides a managed FX service alongside market intelligence, helping business and personal clients monitor the wider forces driving currencies, including central-bank policy, interest rates, energy markets, commodity prices and geopolitical developments. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Currency Hedger is designed for clients who want more than a straightforward currency exchange. The service combines FX solutions with market intelligence to help clients understand the macroeconomic and market factors affecting exchange rates and consider potential levels when managing their currency exposure. Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and operates through regulated payment infrastructure provided by its regulated partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information cannot guarantee future exchange rates or future market outcomes. Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger Today Markets View WTI crude oil fell 1.58% to $100.36 on Friday as traders reduced the geopolitical risk premium following signs that diplomacy could eventually improve Middle Eastern supply flows. The immediate bearish catalysts are clear: Saudi Arabia plans to restore part of its East-West pipeline, significant volumes are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, US crude inventories are above their seasonal average, US production remains close to record levels and US drilling activity is holding firm. But the bullish supply story remains equally significant. Saudi crude exports have fallen to approximately 3 million barrels per day, Saudi production is at its lowest level since 1990, Russian oil infrastructure remains under attack, Middle Eastern exports have been disrupted and US gasoline and distillate inventories remain below seasonal averages. The result is a market where diplomatic progress can quickly push crude lower, but any renewed disruption could send prices sharply higher again. The biggest issue for oil traders is therefore no longer simply whether supply is tight. It is whether the current geopolitical disruptions are temporary enough for Saudi, Russian and regional flows to recover before inventories become critically depleted. “Oil prices are now trading between two powerful forces: diplomatic efforts that could restore disrupted supply and a physical market already dealing with major losses from the Middle East and Russia. Until those supply routes are demonstrably restored, the downside in crude remains vulnerable to renewed geopolitical risk.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 19, 2026

Live Cattle Futures Hold Firm Despite Weekly Losses as Record-Low Placements Tighten US Cattle Supply

Live cattle futures finished mixed on Friday, but the underlying US cattle supply picture is becoming increasingly supportive as August cattle placements fell to a record low for the month and September 1 on-feed inventories remained only marginally above last year. October live cattle closed at $215.925, up 27.5 cents, while December gained 37.5 cents to $216.625 and February 2027 added 7.5 cents to $217.350. Despite Friday's gains, October live cattle finished the week $3.75 lower, showing that the broader market remains under pressure after recent highs. Feeder cattle futures were weaker, with September falling $1.25 to $333.575, October down 87.5 cents to $323.500, and November losing 65 cents to $318.000. September feeder cattle were $4.25 lower on the week. The major fundamental development was the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report. August placements fell 3.3% to 1.617 million head, well below market expectations, representing a record low for August and a 9.16% decline from last year. That tightening supply signal contrasts with softer wholesale beef prices, reduced managed-money exposure and a weekly cattle futures decline. Cattle Market Snapshot Market IndicatorLatest DataMarket SignalOct 2026 Live Cattle$215.925+$0.275Dec 2026 Live Cattle$216.625+$0.375Feb 2027 Live Cattle$217.350+$0.075Sep 2026 Feeder Cattle$333.575-$1.250Oct 2026 Feeder Cattle$323.500-$0.875Nov 2026 Feeder Cattle$318.000-$0.650Oct Live Cattle Weekly Move-$3.75Bearish short-termAug Placements1.617M head-9.16% y/yAug PlacementsRecord low for AugustBullish supply signalSep 1 On Feed11.163M head+0.75% y/yAug Marketings1.519M head-3.31% y/yCME Feeder Cattle Index$342.50-$0.67Managed Money Live Cattle45,262 net longPosition reducedChoice Beef$371.94-$0.21Select Beef$353.26+$1.38Weekly Slaughter Estimate529,000 head-30,270 y/y Why Are Live Cattle Futures Holding Firm Despite Weekly Losses? The cattle market is being pulled in two different directions. Short-term futures momentum has weakened, with October live cattle down $3.75 over the week, while feeder cattle have also posted sizeable weekly losses. However, the latest Cattle on Feed report provides a potentially important longer-term bullish signal. August placements of 1.617 million head were not only below expectations but also represented the lowest August placement figure on record. Placements determine how many cattle will eventually move through feedlots and ultimately become available for slaughter. A sustained reduction in placements can therefore tighten future beef supplies. The market is consequently dealing with a situation in which near-term price action is softer while the forward supply picture is becoming increasingly restrictive. USDA Cattle on Feed Report Sends a Bullish Supply Signal The USDA report was one of the most important developments for cattle futures this week. August placements fell 3.3% to 1.617 million head, which was 9.16% below the same month last year. The figure was also described as a record low for August. That is significant because fewer cattle entering feedlots today can translate into fewer market-ready cattle several months from now. At the same time, August marketings declined 3.31% to 1.519 million head. September 1 cattle on feed totaled 11.163 million head, only 0.75% above last year. The combination suggests that feedlot inventories are not expanding aggressively despite the relatively high cattle price environment. For the cattle market, this creates a potentially supportive medium-term supply structure. Record-Low August Placements Could Tighten Future Beef Supplies The most important figure in the report may be the placement number rather than the total on-feed inventory. An inventory that is only slightly above last year does not necessarily tell traders how cattle availability will evolve several months ahead. Placements provide a forward indication. With August placements at a record low, the number of cattle entering the production pipeline has fallen substantially. If this pattern continues, the market could eventually face tighter supplies of market-ready cattle. That would potentially provide support to live cattle prices, particularly if beef demand remains healthy. The key question is whether demand can remain strong enough to absorb high cattle and beef prices. Cash Cattle Remains Firm Cash cattle trade was reported at $350-$355 dressed in the North, with several live sales reported at $222-$223. These prices remain an important reference point for the futures market. Cash cattle has not collapsed despite the recent decline in futures. That creates an interesting divergence. Futures have weakened over the week, while physical cattle prices remain comparatively firm. If cash trade continues to hold at elevated levels, futures could eventually receive support as traders reassess the relationship between physical and paper markets. However, sustained weakness in wholesale beef prices could eventually put pressure on packer margins and cash bids. Wholesale Beef Prices Send a Mixed Signal The Friday PM boxed beef report was mixed. The Choice boxed beef price fell another 21 cents to $371.94, while Select increased $1.38 to $353.26. The Choice-Select spread therefore remains important for gauging demand for higher-quality beef. The mixed performance indicates that wholesale demand is not moving uniformly in one direction. Choice beef has experienced some pressure, but Select values are showing greater resilience. The market will need to see whether Choice prices stabilize or continue falling. A sustained decline in wholesale values would represent a bearish risk for cattle futures, particularly if packers become less willing to bid aggressively for cash cattle. Cattle Slaughter Remains Below Last Year USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 529,000 head for the week, including Saturday. That represents a 24,000-head increase from the previous week, partly reflecting the holiday-adjusted schedule. However, slaughter remains 30,270 head below the same week last year. The year-over-year reduction is important. Lower slaughter generally indicates fewer cattle moving through the beef production system. That can eventually restrict beef availability and provide support to cattle prices. However, traders must also consider why slaughter is lower. If cattle supplies are tightening because fewer animals are available, the signal is bullish. If packers are reducing slaughter because beef demand or margins are weakening, the interpretation becomes more complicated. Managed Money Cuts Its Live Cattle Position CFTC data showed managed money reducing its live cattle net long position by 1,988 contracts during the week ending September 15. That left funds with a 45,262-contract net long position. Funds therefore remain bullish on a net basis, but the latest reduction shows that speculative conviction has weakened. This is important after October live cattle lost $3.75 over the week. If managed money continues reducing exposure, futures could face additional technical selling. On the other hand, the relatively large remaining net long position means the market still has a significant amount of speculative length that could potentially provide support if fundamentals improve. Feeder Cattle Faces Additional Pressure Feeder cattle futures were weaker across the board. September feeder cattle closed at $333.575, down $1.25. October fell 87.5 cents to $323.500, while November declined 65 cents to $318.000. The CME Feeder Cattle Index fell 67 cents on September 17 to $342.50. September feeder cattle are now $4.25 lower than last Friday. Feeder cattle remain particularly sensitive to feed costs, expected finished-cattle prices and the availability of replacement cattle. If feed costs remain manageable and finished cattle prices stay firm, feeders can retain support. But declining live cattle futures and weaker beef prices can pressure feeder valuations. Bullish Sentiment 1. August Placements Fell to a Record Low The 1.617 million head August placement figure represents the most important bullish fundamental development. Fewer placements today can mean fewer market-ready cattle later. 2. Placements Were 9.16% Below Last Year The year-over-year decline confirms that the reduction was not merely a small monthly fluctuation. The cattle pipeline is receiving fewer animals. 3. Cattle on Feed Inventories Are Barely Above Last Year September 1 inventories were only 0.75% above 2025. That limits the amount of additional supply available compared with last year. 4. Slaughter Remains Below Last Year Weekly slaughter was 30,270 head below the same week last year. Continued reductions in slaughter could reinforce the tighter supply narrative. 5. Cash Cattle Remains Firm Cash trade around $350-$355 dressed in the North and $222-$223 live indicates that physical cattle markets remain resilient. 6. Managed Money Remains Net Long Despite reducing its position, managed money still held 45,262 net-long contracts. That indicates speculative positioning has not turned outright bearish. Bearish Sentiment 1. October Live Cattle Lost $3.75 This Week The weekly decline shows that short-term momentum remains negative. 2. Feeder Cattle Are Also Lower September feeder cattle lost $4.25 over the week, showing weakness further down the cattle production chain. 3. Managed Money Is Reducing Exposure Funds cut nearly 2,000 live cattle contracts, reducing an important source of speculative demand. 4. Choice Beef Prices Are Falling Choice boxed beef declined another 21 cents to $371.94. Further declines could pressure packer margins and eventually cash cattle bids. 5. August Marketings Declined Marketings were down 3.31% to 1.519 million head. While lower marketings can contribute to tighter supply, they can also indicate slower cattle movement through feedlots. 6. High Cattle Prices Could Challenge Beef Demand With cash cattle and boxed beef values elevated, consumers and downstream buyers may become increasingly sensitive to price. A sustained reduction in beef demand would make it harder for cattle futures to maintain premium valuations. The Cattle Market Has a Tightening Supply Story but a Softer Price Signal The latest data create an unusual cattle market environment. The supply fundamentals are increasingly supportive, particularly when looking beyond the immediate cash market. Record-low August placements, below-year-ago slaughter and relatively stable on-feed inventories all point toward a tighter future supply structure. Yet futures have weakened. That is partly because markets trade expectations rather than simply current supply conditions. Traders are also dealing with softer Choice beef values, reduced fund length and uncertainty over consumer demand at elevated beef prices. The result is a market where the longer-term fundamental picture may be more supportive than the current futures price action suggests. Cash Prices and Futures Are Sending Different Signals The difference between cash cattle and futures deserves close attention. Physical cattle prices remain firm, while October futures have fallen $3.75 over the week. If cash prices remain stable while futures continue to weaken, the futures discount could eventually become difficult to maintain. Conversely, if boxed beef prices continue declining and packers become more cautious, cash cattle could eventually follow futures lower. The next several weeks will therefore be important in determining whether futures weakness is simply a correction or the beginning of a deeper repricing. What Traders Are Watching Next Cash Cattle Trade The next round of cash cattle transactions will help determine whether the physical market is resisting the futures decline. Boxed Beef Prices Choice and Select values will remain critical for determining whether beef demand is absorbing elevated cattle prices. Feedlot Placements Another round of weak placements would reinforce the tightening-supply argument. Cattle Slaughter Traders will monitor whether slaughter remains below last year's levels. Fund Positioning The market will watch whether managed money continues cutting its 45,262-contract net long position or begins rebuilding exposure. Feeder Cattle Index The relationship between the CME Feeder Cattle Index and feeder futures will remain important as traders assess replacement-cattle values. Currency Hedger View For cattle producers, feedlots, meat processors, exporters and international buyers, cattle prices are only one part of the commercial equation. Currency movements can materially influence the economics of international beef trade, particularly where transactions involve US dollars, euros, pounds or other major currencies. A move in the USD can change the effective cost of cattle, feed, beef or related agricultural transactions even when the underlying commodity price remains unchanged. Currency Hedger combines managed FX services with market intelligence, helping business and personal clients understand the wider forces influencing currencies, including central-bank policy, interest rates, commodities, energy markets and geopolitical developments. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Currency Hedger is designed for clients who want a more informed approach to managing currency exposure rather than simply executing a currency conversion. The service provides access to FX solutions alongside market information and analysis that can help clients assess potential currency levels and understand the factors driving exchange rates. Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and operates through regulated payment infrastructure provided by its regulated partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information cannot guarantee future exchange rates or future market outcomes. Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger Today Markets View Live cattle futures finished mixed on Friday, but the broader weekly picture remained softer, with October live cattle down $3.75 and September feeder cattle down $4.25. However, the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report provides an important counterweight to the bearish futures action. August placements fell to just 1.617 million head, a record low for the month and 9.16% below last year, while September 1 on-feed inventories were only 0.75% above 2025. At the same time, weekly slaughter remained 30,270 head below last year, reinforcing evidence of a tightening supply environment. The bearish signals are coming primarily from price momentum, reduced fund exposure and mixed wholesale beef demand. The bullish argument rests on the increasingly restrictive cattle pipeline. For traders, the key question is whether tightening future cattle supplies can overcome near-term pressure from weaker futures momentum and softer Choice beef values. “The cattle market is increasingly defined by a conflict between short-term futures weakness and a tightening supply pipeline. Record-low August placements could become increasingly important for prices as fewer cattle move toward the slaughter chain.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 19, 2026

Wheat Futures Fall Across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis as US Export Sales Lag and Funds Turn Bearish

Wheat futures moved lower across all three major US exchanges heading into the weekend, with Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat futures all under pressure as traders reduced risk and speculators shifted toward more defensive positioning. Weak US export sales, slower-than-average shipment commitments and renewed fund selling added to the bearish tone, while uncertainty surrounding Black Sea exports provided an important counterweight for wheat prices. December CBOT wheat fell 12 3/4 cents to $7.14 1/4, while March 2027 CBOT wheat dropped 13 cents to $7.30. December KC HRW wheat declined 10 3/4 cents to $7.83 3/4, while March KC wheat fell 9 3/4 cents to $7.97 1/4. December Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 11 1/4 cents to $7.41 1/4, with March 2027 Minneapolis wheat down 9 3/4 cents to $7.62 3/4. The latest positioning data also showed a shift in sentiment. Speculative funds in Chicago wheat moved back to a net short position, while managed money reduced its net long exposure in Kansas City wheat. At the same time, US 2026/27 wheat export sales remain well behind last year's pace and the five-year average. Wheat Market Snapshot ContractCloseDaily MoveWeekly ContextDec 2026 CBOT Wheat$7.14 1/4-12 3/4¢-11¢Mar 2027 CBOT Wheat$7.30-13¢LowerDec 2026 KC HRW Wheat$7.83 3/4-10 3/4¢-14 3/4¢Mar 2027 KC HRW Wheat$7.97 1/4-9 3/4¢LowerDec 2026 Minneapolis Wheat$7.41 1/4-11 1/4¢-3 3/4¢Mar 2027 Minneapolis Wheat$7.62 3/4-9 3/4¢LowerUS 2026/27 Wheat Sales9.178 MMT—-30% y/yUSDA Export Projection Pace44%—vs. 53% averageChicago Spec Position4,706 contracts net short—Bearish shiftKC Managed Money45,758 contracts net long—Position reduced Why Are Wheat Futures Falling Today? The latest decline reflects a combination of fund liquidation, weak export demand and broader weakness across the agricultural complex. Chicago SRW wheat futures fell between 6 and 13 cents, while Kansas City HRW futures dropped as much as 10 3/4 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat was also firmly lower, falling between 4 1/4 and 11 1/4 cents. The selling comes as traders head into the weekend with limited fresh bullish catalysts. US wheat export commitments are particularly important. Total 2026/27 wheat sales have reached 9.178 million metric tons, which is 30% below the same point last year. More importantly, current sales represent only 44% of the USDA's full-season export projection, compared with a 53% five-year average pace. That leaves the market needing either stronger export demand or a supply-side disruption to improve the fundamental outlook. US Wheat Export Sales Are Falling Behind Export demand remains one of the clearest bearish factors for US wheat futures. The 9.178 MMT of 2026/27 commitments represents a substantial year-over-year decline. The current pace is also below the historical average, suggesting that US wheat is not capturing enough international demand at this stage of the marketing year. For futures markets, the problem is not simply that sales are lower. The market is also watching whether the gap can narrow as the season progresses. If US wheat becomes more competitive against Russian, European, Australian or other origins, export sales could accelerate. However, if international buyers continue sourcing aggressively from competing origins, the current US export deficit could persist. That creates a significant bearish risk for Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat. Black Sea Exports Provide a Major Counterweight The bearish US export picture is being partly offset by uncertainty surrounding Black Sea supplies. Exports from Russia and Ukraine remain limited despite recent calls for de-escalation. That matters because Russia remains one of the world's most important wheat exporters, while Ukraine also plays a major role in global grain trade. Any prolonged disruption to Black Sea export flows could quickly change the supply equation. Reduced Russian or Ukrainian availability would force international buyers to look elsewhere, potentially increasing demand for US wheat. This is one of the biggest reasons traders cannot treat weak US export sales as an isolated signal. US demand is weak, but global supply availability remains exposed to geopolitical and logistical risks. Chicago Wheat Funds Turn Net Short Speculative positioning has also deteriorated. As of September 15, managed money in Chicago wheat futures and options reduced its position by 8,968 contracts, moving to a net short position of 4,706 contracts. That represents an important shift in market positioning. Funds had previously been holding a net long position, but the latest data show that bearish or defensive positioning has returned. A move back into net-short territory can add momentum to downside moves because futures selling can reinforce existing fundamental weakness. However, positioning also creates potential for sharp rallies if a bullish catalyst emerges. If Black Sea exports deteriorate, weather threatens a major producing region, or US export demand suddenly improves, short positions could become vulnerable to liquidation. Kansas City Wheat Funds Reduce Their Long Position Managed money in Kansas City wheat also became less bullish. Funds reduced their net long position by 5,490 contracts, leaving managed money with a net long of 45,758 contracts. Unlike Chicago wheat, KC wheat remains net long. That distinction is important. The market is therefore not seeing uniformly bearish positioning across all wheat contracts. Instead, the latest data show a broad reduction in bullish exposure, with Chicago already moving into net-short territory. If additional liquidation develops, KC and Minneapolis wheat could remain under pressure even if their fundamental characteristics differ from Chicago SRW. Wheat Prices Are Also Being Pressured by the Broader Grain Complex Wheat did not sell off in isolation. The broader agricultural complex has been under pressure as traders reassess supply, demand and fund positioning across grains. When soybean and corn futures weaken, wheat can also come under pressure as traders reduce exposure across agricultural commodities. That does not necessarily mean wheat's individual fundamentals have changed dramatically. Instead, it can create a broader risk-off environment in which traders become less willing to maintain long positions. The result is often amplified downside movement when speculative positioning is already being reduced. Bullish Sentiment 1. Black Sea Export Disruptions Could Tighten Global Supply Limited exports from Russia and Ukraine remain a significant bullish risk. If Black Sea availability deteriorates further, importers could increase purchases from the US and other origins. 2. Chicago Wheat Is Vulnerable to Short Covering The move to a 4,706-contract net short position means a bullish catalyst could trigger short covering. That could create a rapid futures rebound even without a major change in the underlying supply-demand balance. 3. Global Wheat Demand Has Not Disappeared Weak US sales do not mean global wheat consumption is collapsing. International buyers still require wheat for food, feed and industrial uses, meaning changes in export competitiveness can quickly redirect demand between origins. 4. Geopolitical Risk Remains a Supply Threat Any renewed escalation around the Black Sea could affect shipping, insurance, infrastructure and export logistics. That risk is particularly important for a commodity as globally traded as wheat. 5. Lower Prices Could Improve US Competitiveness A sustained decline in US wheat futures could eventually make American wheat more attractive to international buyers. If exporters become more competitive, the current sales deficit could begin to narrow. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Wheat Sales Are 30% Below Last Year The most obvious bearish signal is the 9.178 MMT of 2026/27 US wheat commitments, down approximately 30% year over year. 2. Export Sales Are Behind the Historical Pace US commitments are currently at just 44% of the USDA export projection, compared with a 53% five-year average pace. That suggests the market still needs a significant improvement in export demand. 3. Chicago Funds Have Returned to Net Short Managed money moving to a 4,706-contract net short position indicates that speculative sentiment has weakened. Additional fund selling could create further downside pressure. 4. KC Funds Are Also Reducing Long Exposure Although KC managed money remains net long at 45,758 contracts, the reduction of 5,490 contracts shows that traders are taking money off the table. 5. Weekend Risk Is Encouraging Liquidation The latest selling occurred heading into the weekend, when traders often reduce exposure to geopolitical, weather and macroeconomic risks. That can create additional short-term pressure independent of changes in wheat fundamentals. 6. Competing Export Origins Remain Important US wheat must compete with supplies from Russia, Ukraine, Europe, Australia and other major exporters. If competing origins remain available at attractive prices, international demand may continue to bypass the US. The Wheat Market Is Caught Between Weak US Demand and Black Sea Risk The central conflict in the wheat market is becoming increasingly clear. On one side, US export performance is weak, speculative positioning is deteriorating and futures are falling across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis. On the other, Black Sea export uncertainty remains a potentially powerful bullish factor. This creates a market where traders can be bearish on current US demand while remaining cautious about becoming aggressively short because of geopolitical supply risks. That tension is likely to remain one of the defining characteristics of the wheat market. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major wheat price signals will come from several areas. US Export Sales The market needs evidence that weekly export commitments are beginning to accelerate. A continued shortfall from the five-year average would reinforce the bearish demand narrative. Black Sea Shipments Russian and Ukrainian export activity remains critical. Any major deterioration could quickly change global wheat pricing dynamics. Fund Positioning Chicago wheat has already moved back to a net-short position. Traders will watch whether funds continue adding shorts or begin covering. Global Wheat Competitiveness Prices from Russia, Ukraine, Europe and Australia will influence whether international buyers return to US wheat. Weather Weather remains an important longer-term variable because wheat production is highly sensitive to growing conditions across major producing regions. Currency Hedger View For wheat traders, producers, exporters and international buyers, the commodity price is only part of the equation. Currency movements can materially change the economics of international grain trade. A stronger or weaker US dollar can influence the competitiveness of US wheat against Russian, European, Australian and other export origins. For businesses purchasing or selling wheat across borders, the underlying currency transaction can therefore affect the final commercial outcome even when the wheat futures price itself is unchanged. Currency Hedger provides a managed FX service combined with market intelligence, helping business and personal clients stay informed about developments across currencies, central banks, energy markets, commodities and geopolitical events. For businesses exposed to USD, EUR, GBP or other currencies through international payments, imports, exports or commodity transactions, managing the FX side of the transaction can be just as important as monitoring the underlying market. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Currency Hedger is designed for clients who want more than a simple currency conversion. The service combines access to the FX market with market analysis and information designed to help clients understand the factors influencing currency movements and consider potential levels when managing their exposure. Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group, with payment services provided through regulated partner infrastructure. FX markets involve risk, and market information cannot guarantee future exchange rates or market outcomes. Open an account and speak with Currency Hedger about your FX requirements: Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger Today Markets View Wheat futures finished the week under broad pressure, with Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat all declining as traders reduced risk and speculative positioning became less supportive. The biggest bearish signal remains the US export picture. With 2026/27 commitments at 9.178 MMT, down 30% from last year and running at only 44% of the USDA projection compared with a 53% five-year average, the market needs stronger demand to justify a sustained bullish move. Fund positioning is adding to the pressure, with Chicago managed money returning to a net-short position and Kansas City funds reducing their net long. However, the bearish case is not without significant risks. Limited Black Sea exports, geopolitical uncertainty and the potential for short covering could quickly change the tone of the market. For now, wheat remains a market caught between weak US export demand and the possibility of tighter global availability if Black Sea supplies become more restricted. “Wheat is entering a critical phase where weak US export demand and renewed fund selling are weighing on futures, but Black Sea supply risks remain capable of producing sharp rallies if global availability deteriorates.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 19, 2026

Corn Futures Fall as US Export Commitments Trail Last Year and China Buying Disappoints Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks

Corn futures weakened on Friday as the market absorbed pressure from lower soybean and wheat prices, falling crude oil and a disappointing US export picture ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. December 2026 corn closed at $5.27 1/2, down 3 cents, while March 2027 corn fell 3 cents to $5.41 1/2. May 2027 corn declined 2 1/2 cents to $5.48 1/4. The national average cash corn price fell 3 cents to $4.82 1/4. December corn also finished the week 2 3/4 cents lower, highlighting the difficulty the market is having generating sustained upside momentum despite substantial speculative positioning and strong pockets of international demand. The biggest concern is US exports. US corn export commitments for the 2026/27 marketing year have reached approximately 17.4 million metric tonnes, but that is 27% below the same period last year. Commitments currently represent only around 21% of the USDA's full-year export projection, compared with 28% at the same point last year and the five-year average. With China remaining notably absent from the US corn export wire ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, traders are increasingly focused on whether a breakthrough in US-China trade relations could unlock additional demand. At the same time, South Korean buyers remain active, purchasing another 130,000 tonnes of corn in an overnight tender after buying 260,000 tonnes the previous day. The corn market is therefore facing a split picture: US export demand is lagging, China is quiet, but Asian buyers are still actively purchasing corn. Why Are Corn Futures Falling Today? Corn came under pressure from weakness across the broader agricultural and commodity complex. Soybeans and wheat both posted double-digit losses, while crude oil also moved lower. The weakness in related markets matters because corn competes for acreage, influences agricultural sentiment and is closely linked to the broader grain and energy complex. Lower crude oil prices can also weigh on corn through the biofuel market. Ethanol demand and margins remain an important component of US corn demand, meaning changes in energy prices can influence the economics of converting corn into fuel. Friday's move was therefore not driven by a single bearish corn-specific event. Instead, it reflected a combination of: Weakness in soybeans Weakness in wheat Lower crude oil Disappointing US export commitments Lack of Chinese corn purchases Large speculative positioning Corn Market Snapshot Corn Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactDecember 2026 Corn$5.27 1/2Down 3 centsMarch 2027 Corn$5.41 1/2Down 3 centsMay 2027 Corn$5.48 1/4Down 2 1/2 centsNational Cash Corn$4.82 1/4Down 3 centsDecember weekly change-2 3/4 centsBearishManaged Money Net Long426,842 contractsLarge bullish positioningWeekly fund change+1,671 contractsSlightly bullish2026/27 US export commitments17.4 MMTBelow expectationsYoY export commitment change-27%BearishShare of USDA export forecast21%Below normalSame point last year28%BenchmarkFive-year average28%BenchmarkSouth Korean tender130,000 MTBullish demandPrevious South Korean purchase260,000 MTStrong Asian demand US Corn Export Commitments Are Falling Behind The most important bearish fundamental in the current corn market is the pace of US export commitments. The latest USDA export data put 2026/27 commitments at approximately 17.4 million tonnes. That is 27% below the comparable period last year. More importantly, only 21% of the USDA's full-year export projection has been committed. Last year and the five-year average were both around 28% at the same stage. That gap is significant. If US exports continue to lag historical levels, the market could face larger ending stocks than previously expected. Larger stocks would increase domestic availability and potentially keep pressure on futures. The market therefore needs to see a meaningful acceleration in export demand. China Is Missing From the US Corn Export Wire China is one of the biggest potential catalysts for US corn prices. Yet heading into next week's meeting between President Trump and President Xi, the US export wire has been notably quiet regarding Chinese corn purchases. This is important because traders have been watching the meeting for signs of increased agricultural trade. Corn, soybeans and other US agricultural products could potentially benefit from stronger Chinese buying if trade conditions improve. But so far, the physical market has not provided evidence of a major Chinese purchasing programme. That leaves corn traders waiting for confirmation. Trump-Xi Talks Could Become a Major Corn Catalyst The upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi has become an important event for the agricultural markets. For corn traders, the key issue is whether China increases purchases of US agricultural commodities. The absence of significant Chinese corn sales ahead of the meeting means the market is still waiting for evidence that trade relations could translate into actual demand. Any major increase in Chinese purchases could alter the US export balance quickly. But until those purchases appear in the export data, the market must continue to deal with current commitments rather than anticipated demand. That distinction is critical. Potential Chinese demand is bullish. Actual Chinese purchases are the confirmation the market needs. South Korea Is Providing a Stronger Demand Signal While China remains quiet, South Korea continues to demonstrate strong demand. South Korean importers purchased approximately 130,000 tonnes of corn in an overnight tender. That followed another 260,000 tonnes of purchases on Thursday. Combined, the two rounds of buying represent approximately 390,000 tonnes of corn demand. This provides a useful counterbalance to the weak US export commitment figures. It demonstrates that international buyers are active. The problem is that US exporters need sustained demand from multiple destinations to compensate for the slower pace of commitments. South Korean buying is therefore supportive, but the market will need more evidence of broad-based international demand. Managed Money Remains Heavily Long Corn CFTC data provide another important part of the market picture. Managed money increased its net-long position in corn futures and options by 1,671 contracts during the week ending September 15. That left funds with a substantial 426,842-contract net-long position. This is a very large bullish position. The increase is also important because it shows that funds were still willing to add exposure despite the weaker export outlook. However, the size of the position creates a potential risk. If export demand continues to disappoint, funds could eventually begin liquidating. A significant reduction in the net-long position could add considerable selling pressure to corn futures. Conversely, a major improvement in Chinese or broader export demand could encourage funds to add further to their already substantial position. The Corn Market Needs Export Demand The central issue facing corn is simple: The market needs buyers. US production is entering the market at a time when export commitments are running below last year's pace. The USDA is currently forecasting a substantial export programme. But with only 21% of the projection committed compared with 28% historically, the market needs the pace of sales to accelerate. That acceleration could come from: China Mexico South Korea Japan Other Asian importers Ethanol demand Feed demand Without stronger demand, the market could struggle to maintain current price levels. Crude Oil Adds Another Layer of Pressure Corn is also sensitive to energy prices because of the importance of ethanol production. When crude oil prices fall, the economics of biofuel production can become less attractive relative to petroleum. That can reduce some of the indirect support that energy markets provide to corn. Friday's lower crude oil prices therefore contributed to the broader bearish tone. The relationship is not one-to-one, however. US ethanol demand is also influenced by mandates, blending economics, gasoline consumption and ethanol margins. Nevertheless, the energy market remains an important variable for corn traders. Bullish Sentiment 1. South Korean Demand Is Strong South Korean buyers purchased 130,000 tonnes overnight following 260,000 tonnes the previous day. That demonstrates continued international demand. 2. China Could Become a Major Buyer The absence of Chinese purchases means there is potentially significant upside if trade discussions lead to increased US agricultural buying. 3. Funds Are Still Adding to Their Long Position Managed money increased its net-long corn position by 1,671 contracts. That shows speculative sentiment has not yet broken down. 4. The Existing Fund Position Can Amplify a Rally If export demand improves, funds could potentially add to their already large 426,842-contract position. 5. Global Feed Demand Remains Important Corn remains one of the world's most important feed grains, providing structural demand from the livestock sector. 6. Trade Developments Could Change the Export Balance Quickly A meaningful improvement in US-China agricultural trade could alter export expectations relatively quickly. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Export Commitments Are 27% Below Last Year This is currently the clearest fundamental warning signal. 2. Only 21% of the USDA Export Projection Is Committed That compares with 28% last year and the five-year average. The market therefore needs a significant acceleration in sales. 3. China Has Not Been Buying US Corn The quiet export wire ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting suggests that expected Chinese demand has not yet materialised. 4. Funds Are Holding a Very Large Long Position A 426,842-contract net long creates significant liquidation risk if market fundamentals deteriorate. 5. Crude Oil Is Lower Lower energy prices can reduce some of the support corn receives through ethanol economics. 6. Soybeans and Wheat Are Weak Weakness across the broader grain complex can encourage additional selling in corn futures. Corn Faces a Battle Between Expected and Actual Demand The current market is essentially trading the difference between potential demand and confirmed demand. Potentially, China represents a huge source of additional US corn demand. But confirmed US export commitments remain weak. South Korea is actively buying. But total US commitments remain well behind last year. Funds remain heavily bullish. But that position could become vulnerable if demand fails to accelerate. This makes the next several weeks particularly important. The Trump-Xi Meeting Could Reset Agricultural Trade Expectations The upcoming meeting has the potential to influence market expectations well beyond corn. US agricultural exporters are looking for greater access to Chinese demand, while Chinese buyers have multiple international supply options. The corn market therefore needs to see actual purchases rather than simply positive diplomatic headlines. If Chinese buying appears in the USDA export sales data, the market could quickly reassess the current export outlook. If Chinese purchases remain absent, traders are likely to continue focusing on the current 27% year-on-year deficit in US export commitments. What Traders Are Watching Next US-China Trade Discussions The meeting between Trump and Xi remains the most important potential demand catalyst. Chinese Corn Purchases Actual purchases will matter considerably more than expectations. US Export Sales The market needs weekly commitments to accelerate toward or above historical levels. South Korean Demand Further tenders could provide evidence that Asian demand remains strong. CFTC Positioning Traders will monitor whether funds continue building their 426,842-contract net-long position or begin liquidating. Crude Oil Energy prices will continue influencing ethanol economics and broader commodity sentiment. US Harvest Progress As new-crop corn becomes increasingly available, the market will focus on yields, production and storage requirements. Currency Hedger View Corn is priced in US dollars, but the businesses buying and selling it operate across multiple currencies. Agricultural importers, exporters, feed companies, commodity traders and international businesses can face significant FX exposure alongside their commodity exposure. For example, an importer purchasing US corn may see the underlying corn price move in its favour while simultaneously experiencing an adverse currency move that increases the final cost. This is why commodity risk and currency risk often need to be considered together. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, provides a managed FX service designed to help business and personal clients navigate international currency exposure. Our market intelligence considers: Central-bank policy Interest-rate expectations Inflation US dollar movements Energy markets Commodity prices Geopolitical developments Economic data Futures and forward FX markets International capital flows The focus is on understanding the broader FX environment, identifying potential currency levels and considering how exchange-rate exposure can be managed around actual commercial requirements. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Whether you are importing agricultural commodities, exporting products, paying overseas suppliers, receiving international revenues or managing personal international transfers, Currency Hedger provides a managed FX service built around market intelligence and international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Stay Connected to the Currency Markets Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and operates through regulated payment infrastructure provided by its regulated partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information should not be interpreted as a guarantee of future exchange rates or future market outcomes. Today Markets View Corn futures are entering a critical period with US export demand lagging historical levels, China remaining largely absent from the US corn export wire and managed money holding an enormous net-long position. The bearish side of the market is currently straightforward. Export commitments are down 27% from last year. Only 21% of the USDA's full-year export projection has been committed. Crude oil is lower. Soybeans and wheat are under pressure. And funds are holding a position that could become vulnerable to liquidation if demand fails to improve. But the bullish side should not be ignored. South Korean buyers have purchased 390,000 tonnes across the latest two tenders, while China remains a potentially significant source of additional demand. The next stage of US-China trade discussions could therefore become a major catalyst. For now, corn needs actual export sales rather than anticipated demand. If Chinese purchases emerge and US export commitments begin accelerating, the current large fund position could provide additional upside momentum. If China remains absent and export commitments continue trailing historical levels, the market may increasingly question whether the USDA's current export projection can be achieved. “Corn is waiting for confirmation that international demand can absorb the coming US supply. South Korean buying provides an encouraging signal, but the market still needs stronger US export commitments — particularly from China — before the current speculative positioning can be fully justified.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Today Markets Analysis | Corn Futures | Corn Prices | US Corn Exports | China Corn Demand | US-China Trade | Corn Market Outlook | 2026/27 Corn Prices

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September 19, 2026

Soybean Futures Fall 17 Cents as Fund Longs Retreat and China Trade Uncertainty Returns Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks

Soybean futures sold off sharply on Friday, with contracts falling 9 to 17 cents across the board, as traders reduced exposure following a significant build-up in speculative long positions and the market focused on the uncertain outlook for US-China soybean trade, Chinese inventories and large US export commitments. November soybeans held onto a 7-cent weekly gain, but Friday's decline erased a significant portion of the week's momentum. November 2026 soybeans closed at $13.03 1/2, down 16 1/4 cents, while January 2027 soybeans fell 17 cents to $13.20. March 2027 soybeans declined 16 1/4 cents to $13.29 1/2. The national average cash soybean price also weakened, falling 16 1/4 cents to $12.44 1/4. Soymeal futures were lower by approximately $7 to $14.10 in the front months, although October soymeal still recorded a $7.80 weekly gain. Soybean oil also came under pressure, falling 89 to 129 points on Friday, with October soybean oil down 149 points for the week. The market is now facing a complicated combination of large US export demand, record speculative positioning, Chinese purchasing uncertainty, substantial Chinese domestic inventories and potentially significant US-China trade discussions. Why Are Soybean Futures Falling Today? The biggest immediate factor is positioning. CFTC data showed managed money reducing its previously record net-long position in soybean futures and options by 21,321 contracts during the week ending September 15. That left managed money with a net long position of approximately 244,710 contracts. While the position remains extremely large, the reduction is significant because it shows speculative traders are beginning to take some exposure off the table. When a market has accumulated a large speculative long position, even modest changes in sentiment can generate substantial selling pressure. Friday's decline therefore appears to reflect a combination of profit-taking, position reduction and uncertainty surrounding the next phase of Chinese soybean demand. CFTC Positioning Shows Funds Are Still Heavily Long Managed money remains an important part of the soybean market. At approximately 244,710 contracts net long, funds are still holding a historically substantial bullish position. But the key issue is direction. The previous record net-long position was reduced by more than 21,000 contracts. That creates a potential technical vulnerability. If funds continue reducing their exposure, futures could face additional selling pressure even if the underlying physical soybean market remains relatively strong. Conversely, if China accelerates US purchases and trade expectations improve, the large speculative position could become a source of additional upside momentum if funds begin adding back to their positions. The soybean market is therefore particularly sensitive to changes in fund positioning. China Buys More US Soybeans for 2026/27 The bearish positioning story is being countered by fresh evidence of Chinese demand. The USDA reported a private export sale of 111,000 metric tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. That is important because China remains the world's largest soybean importer and one of the most important destinations for US soybean exports. Fresh purchases provide evidence that Chinese buyers remain active in the international market. However, the timing of those purchases is particularly important. The market is now looking ahead to major US-China discussions, meaning soybean traders are closely watching whether Chinese purchases accelerate or slow following the latest diplomatic and trade developments. Trump-Xi Talks Put Soybeans Back at the Centre of Trade Markets China-US trade remains one of the most important variables for US soybean prices. China's President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet US President Donald Trump, with trade expected to be among the issues discussed. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also travelling to China ahead of the meeting to prepare for further discussions. For soybean traders, the implications are straightforward. The US is one of the world's largest soybean producers. China is the world's largest soybean importer. That makes soybeans particularly sensitive to any changes in bilateral trade arrangements. If Chinese purchases of US soybeans increase, US export demand could strengthen considerably. If Chinese buyers continue sourcing heavily from Brazil and other origins instead, US soybean exporters could face greater competition. The market therefore has a substantial policy and trade-risk premium embedded in current expectations. US Soybean Export Demand Remains a Major Bullish Factor Despite Friday's price decline, the broader US export picture remains strong. USDA export sales data showed current marketing-year commitments for corn at 20.631 million tonnes, more than double the level during the comparable week last year. Those commitments already represent approximately 45% of the USDA's full-year export projection, compared with a five-year average of approximately 36% at this point in the season. While those figures are for corn rather than soybeans, they provide important context for the strength of US agricultural export demand more broadly. For soybeans, China remains the critical question. The 111,000-tonne private sale demonstrates that Chinese buyers are still willing to purchase US beans. The issue is whether that purchase represents the beginning of a larger buying programme or simply a relatively isolated transaction. China's Soybean Inventories Could Limit Demand One of the biggest bearish factors is China's domestic inventory position. Sinograin, China's state stockpiler, is scheduled to auction approximately 543,000 tonnes of imported soybeans. The auction is important because it indicates that China has substantial soybean stocks available domestically. Large inventories can reduce the urgency for Chinese crushers and state buyers to purchase additional beans from overseas suppliers. This creates a potential contradiction: China is buying US soybeans while simultaneously auctioning imported soybean inventories. The two developments suggest that Chinese demand is real, but the timing and intensity of future purchases remain uncertain. Brazil Remains the Key US Export Competitor US soybean exporters are also competing with South American supply. Brazil has become an increasingly important supplier to China, and its position in the global soybean trade means US export prices must remain competitive. This creates a seasonal battle for market share. As the US harvest approaches, American farmers and exporters need strong international demand to absorb the new crop. At the same time, Chinese buyers can compare US-origin beans against Brazilian supply. That competition makes Chinese purchasing decisions especially important for US futures. Soybean Meal Falls While Soybean Oil Weakens The soybean complex is also showing weakness outside the main soybean contract. Front-month soymeal futures fell approximately $7 to $14.10, although October soymeal still gained $7.80 during the week. Soymeal demand is closely connected to global livestock production and feed demand. A stronger livestock sector can support soymeal demand, while weaker margins or substitution with other feed ingredients can pressure prices. Soybean oil also declined sharply. Friday's soybean oil futures were down approximately 89 to 129 points, with October soybean oil falling 149 points for the week. Soybean oil remains heavily influenced by: Vegetable oil markets Biofuel demand Crude oil prices Palm oil Canola Renewable diesel economics US biofuel policy Weakness in soybean oil therefore adds another layer of pressure to the soybean complex. Soybean Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactNovember 2026 Soybeans$13.03 1/2Down 16 1/4 centsJanuary 2027 Soybeans$13.20Down 17 centsMarch 2027 Soybeans$13.29 1/2Down 16 1/4 centsNational Cash Soybeans$12.44 1/4Down 16 1/4 centsNovember weekly change+7 centsWeekly bullish supportFront-month SoymealDown $7 to $14.10BearishOctober Soymeal weekly change+$7.80Weekly supportSoybean Oil Friday-89 to -129 pointsBearishOctober Soybean Oil weekly-149 pointsBearishManaged Money Net Long244,710 contractsHistorically largeWeekly fund position change-21,321 contractsBearish positioning signalUS soybean sale to China111,000 MTBullish demandSinograin auction543,000 MTBearish inventory signalUS corn commitments20.631 MMTStrong export backdrop Bullish Sentiment 1. China Is Still Buying US Soybeans The 111,000-tonne 2026/27 sale demonstrates that Chinese buyers remain active in the US market. 2. US Agricultural Export Demand Is Strong Large US export commitments across agricultural commodities indicate strong international demand. 3. Trump-Xi Trade Discussions Could Change Soybean Flows Any improvement in US-China trade relations could potentially increase Chinese purchases of US agricultural products. 4. November Soybeans Still Posted a Weekly Gain Despite Friday's sell-off, November soybeans finished the week 7 cents higher, showing that underlying support has not completely disappeared. 5. Large Fund Positions Can Amplify an Upside Move If Chinese buying accelerates, managed money could potentially rebuild long exposure after the recent reduction. 6. Global Feed Demand Supports Soymeal Soymeal remains an important protein source for livestock feed, providing structural demand for the soybean complex. Bearish Sentiment 1. Funds Are Reducing Their Record Long Position Managed money cut its net-long position by 21,321 contracts. Further liquidation could create additional selling pressure. 2. China Has Large Imported Soybean Stocks The planned 543,000-tonne Sinograin auction suggests China has substantial inventories available. 3. US-China Trade Remains Uncertain The importance of the upcoming discussions means soybean prices remain sensitive to trade headlines and policy developments. 4. Brazil Provides Strong Competition Brazil remains a major supplier to China, giving Chinese buyers an alternative source of soybean supply. 5. Soybean Oil Is Weak The decline in soybean oil removes support from one important component of soybean-crush economics. 6. New-Crop US Supply Is Approaching The US harvest will add substantial physical supply to the market, increasing the importance of export demand. The Soybean Market Is Entering a Critical Trade Window The soybean market is approaching one of the most important periods of the year. The US crop is moving toward harvest. Exporters need to generate demand. China needs to secure supplies. Brazil remains a major competitor. And speculative funds are holding an unusually large long position. That combination creates the potential for significant volatility. The central question is whether Chinese demand will be strong enough to absorb the upcoming US crop at prices that keep farmers and exporters supported. China's Buying Decisions Could Set the Direction The Chinese market is particularly important because China accounts for an enormous share of global soybean imports. If Chinese buyers increase purchases from the US, futures could receive fundamental support. If China continues relying heavily on South American supply while domestic inventories remain elevated, US exporters could face a much more difficult environment. The planned Sinograin auction therefore deserves close attention. It provides a real-world test of Chinese inventory conditions rather than relying solely on government forecasts. Fund Positioning Could Amplify the Next Move The CFTC positioning data create another important dynamic. Funds remain heavily long. That means the market has significant speculative exposure already committed to the bullish side. If prices weaken and funds continue liquidating, the selling could accelerate. But the opposite is also possible. A major improvement in Chinese demand could encourage funds to rebuild long exposure, adding momentum to a fundamental rally. This makes positioning data one of the most important indicators to monitor alongside export sales. What Traders Are Watching Next Trump-Xi Trade Discussions Any developments affecting agricultural trade between the United States and China could have an immediate impact on soybean expectations. Chinese US Soybean Purchases The key question is whether the recent 111,000-tonne sale becomes the beginning of a larger purchasing programme. Sinograin's 543,000-Tonne Auction The auction should provide additional information about China's domestic soybean inventory situation. US Harvest Progress As the US harvest accelerates, the market will increasingly focus on actual yields and the size of available new-crop supplies. CFTC Fund Positioning Further liquidation from the 244,710-contract net-long position would be a bearish signal. A return to aggressive buying would indicate renewed speculative confidence. Brazilian Competition Chinese buying patterns between US and Brazilian beans will remain critical for US export demand. Soymeal and Soybean Oil The performance of the products will continue influencing soybean crush economics and overall complex sentiment. Currency Hedger View Soybeans are a global commodity, but international soybean businesses also have to manage currency exposure. Importers, exporters, commodity traders, feed producers and agricultural businesses can have significant payments and receipts in USD, EUR, GBP, CNY and other currencies. That means the final commercial cost of a soybean transaction can change even when the underlying futures price remains unchanged. A business purchasing $10 million of soybeans, for example, is exposed not only to the soybean price but also to the exchange rate required to fund that purchase. This is where Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, provides a broader managed-FX perspective. Currency Hedger monitors the factors that can influence currency markets, including: Central-bank decisions Interest rates Inflation Commodity markets Energy prices US-China trade developments Geopolitical events Economic data Futures markets Forward FX pricing Global capital flows The objective is to help businesses and individuals understand their FX exposure and consider potential currency levels around their international payment requirements. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Whether you are an agricultural importer, exporter, commodity trader, international business or individual with significant foreign-currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides a managed FX service designed around market intelligence and currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Stay Connected to the Currency Markets Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and operates through regulated payment infrastructure provided by its regulated partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information should not be interpreted as a guarantee of future exchange rates or future market outcomes. Today Markets View Soybean futures are entering a crucial period as US harvest supply, Chinese demand, fund positioning and US-China trade developments collide. Friday's decline reflects a clear change in market positioning. Managed money has begun reducing its enormous net-long position, while China's decision to auction 543,000 tonnes of imported soybeans raises questions about the urgency of additional purchases. At the same time, the market cannot ignore the bullish evidence. China has purchased another 111,000 tonnes of US soybeans for 2026/27, November futures still finished the week higher, and US agricultural export demand remains strong. The upcoming US-China discussions could therefore become an important catalyst for soybean prices. The key issue is whether China increases its purchases of US soybeans sufficiently to offset the pressure from domestic inventories, South American competition and the approaching US harvest. For now, the soybean market is caught between strong underlying export potential and an increasingly crowded speculative long position. That combination means the next major move could be driven as much by changes in Chinese buying and fund positioning as by the physical size of the US crop. “Soybeans are entering a critical period where physical supply, Chinese demand and speculative positioning are moving in different directions. The next phase of US-China trade discussions and Chinese soybean buying will be particularly important for determining whether the market can absorb the incoming US crop without further pressure on futures.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Today Markets Analysis | Soybean Futures | Soybean Prices | US Soybeans | China Soybean Demand | US-China Trade | Soybean Market Outlook | 2026/27 Soybean Prices

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September 19, 2026

Coffee Futures Rebound as Dollar Falls but Record Global Supply and Brazil Crop Outlook Cap 2026 Coffee Prices

Coffee futures recovered from early losses on Friday as a weaker US dollar triggered short covering, but the broader coffee market remains under pressure from record global production forecasts, a projected 2025/26 surplus, strong Brazil and Vietnam exports, improving growing conditions and expectations for another large 2026/27 crop. December ICE Arabica coffee closed 4 points higher at +1.45%, while November ICE Robusta coffee settled 5 points higher at +0.15%. The rebound followed a sharp three-week decline in coffee prices, with Arabica reaching a 2.5-month low on Thursday and Robusta falling to a one-week low on Friday. The immediate catalyst for Friday's recovery was the US dollar. The dollar index had climbed to a seven-week high before reversing lower, encouraging short covering in coffee futures because a weaker dollar can improve the purchasing power of international buyers and make dollar-denominated commodities more attractive. However, the bigger fundamental picture remains challenging. The International Coffee Organization is forecasting record 2025/26 global coffee production of 183.6 million bags, while consumption is expected to fall to 180.6 million bags. That leaves the global market with an estimated 3 million-bag surplus, the first surplus in five years. At the same time, Brazil is exporting coffee at record rates, Vietnam is showing stronger supply potential and USDA forecasts point toward another record global crop in 2026/27. The coffee market is therefore caught between short-term technical support from currency movements and tight Arabica inventories, and a much more bearish medium-term supply outlook. Coffee Market Snapshot Coffee Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactDecember ICE Arabica+4 / +1.45%Short-term bullishNovember ICE Robusta+5 / +0.15%Slightly bullishArabica recent low2.5-month lowBearish trendRobusta recent low1-week lowBearish2025/26 global production183.6M bagsRecord supplyGlobal production growth+4.4% YoYBearish2025/26 global consumption180.6M bagsDemand below supplyGlobal surplus3M bagsBearishBrazil August coffee exports4.155M bagsRecord AugustBrazil August exports growth+31% YoYBearishBrazil August Arabica exports2.87M bags+26% YoYBrazil August Robusta exports953,592 bags+54% YoYVietnam Jan-Aug 2026 exports1.33M MT+13.7% YoYVietnam 2025/26 production1.76M MT / 29.4M bags4-year highICE Arabica inventories258,415 bagsRecovered from 27-year lowICE Robusta inventories5,043 lots9.5-month highUSDA 2026/27 global output189.7M bagsRecord forecastUSDA 2026/27 output growth+6.0%BearishUSDA 2026/27 ending stocks26.3M bags+1.9M bagsUSDA Brazil 2026/27 crop71.9M bagsRecord / +14% Why Are Coffee Futures Recovering Today? Friday's recovery was primarily driven by the US dollar. The dollar index had reached a seven-week high before reversing lower, prompting traders to cover short positions in coffee. This is a familiar relationship in commodity markets. Coffee is priced internationally in US dollars, so fluctuations in the dollar can influence the effective cost for buyers using other currencies. A stronger dollar can place additional pressure on dollar-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for international buyers. A weaker dollar can have the opposite effect. Friday's price action therefore represents an important reminder that coffee does not trade purely on physical supply and demand. Currency markets can temporarily overpower fundamental signals. However, the dollar reversal does not change the underlying production outlook. The fundamental question remains whether the global coffee market is heading toward sustained oversupply. Current forecasts suggest that it is. ICO Forecasts the First Coffee Surplus in Five Years One of the most important bearish developments for coffee prices is the International Coffee Organization's latest global balance estimate. The ICO expects 2025/26 global coffee production to rise 4.4% year-on-year to a record 183.6 million bags. At the same time, global consumption is expected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That produces an estimated 3 million-bag surplus. The significance of this number extends beyond the size of the surplus itself. The ICO says this would represent the first global coffee surplus in five years. After several seasons in which tight supplies supported elevated coffee prices, the return of surplus production changes the fundamental backdrop. If production continues to exceed consumption, inventories can rebuild. And if inventories rebuild, some of the scarcity premium previously embedded in coffee prices can disappear. Brazil Coffee Exports Are Adding Significant Supply Brazil is currently one of the biggest bearish forces in the coffee market. The country's harvest is approaching completion, allowing substantial volumes to reach international export markets. Cecafé reported that Brazilian coffee exports increased 31% year-on-year in August to 4.155 million bags. That was a record for the month of August. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while Robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazil's Trade Ministry provided another indication of strong export activity. It reported that August coffee exports rose 44.6% year-on-year to 206,618 metric tonnes, the highest monthly level in eight months. The numbers demonstrate that Brazil is not simply producing more coffee. It is also successfully moving that coffee into international markets. That increases available supply for global buyers and creates additional pressure on futures prices. Brazil Weather Is Turning Into a Bearish 2026/27 Signal The next Brazilian crop is already becoming a major market focus. The 2026/27 Arabica crop depends heavily on conditions during the flowering period. Recent rainfall has been particularly strong in Minas Gerais, Brazil's most important Arabica-growing region. Somar Meteorologia reported 59.4 mm of rainfall during the week ending September 13, equivalent to approximately 1,212% of the historical average. Under normal circumstances, improved soil moisture during the flowering period can be positive for the next crop. For coffee futures, however, that creates a bearish supply implication. If favourable weather improves flowering and fruit development, Brazil could produce another large crop in 2026/27. That possibility is already reflected in USDA forecasts. USDA Forecasts Record Global Coffee Production The USDA's latest biannual forecast is one of the clearest bearish signals facing coffee. The USDA expects global coffee production in 2026/27 to increase 6.0%, or approximately 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags. Arabica production is expected to increase 12% year-on-year. Robusta production is expected to decline slightly by 0.7%, but the overall global production increase remains substantial. The USDA also expects world ending stocks to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. This is important because higher production combined with rising ending inventories creates a much more comfortable global supply position. The market is therefore facing the possibility of two consecutive years of strong supply growth. Brazil's 2026/27 Crop Could Reach 71.9 Million Bags Brazil is central to the USDA's bullish production outlook. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27, representing a 14% increase year-on-year. If achieved, this would provide another substantial injection of coffee into the global market. The combination of: Record Brazil production Strong Brazil exports Higher global output Rising ending stocks Improved Brazilian rainfall creates a powerful bearish fundamental argument. However, there is an important counterargument. Weather forecasts are not production guarantees. And that is where El Niño enters the picture. El Niño Creates a Major Bullish Risk for Coffee Despite the strong supply outlook, coffee bulls have one potentially powerful weapon: weather. The emergence of El Niño could create significant weather volatility across coffee-growing regions. Coffee trader Commercial has warned that El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, a critical period for tree flowering. If rainfall becomes inadequate during flowering, Brazil's 2026/27 crop could suffer. The US Climate Prediction Center has also warned that the El Niño pattern could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. That creates the possibility of: Drought conditions Excessive rainfall Flooding Higher temperatures Delayed flowering Reduced yields Crop damage across Asia and South America For coffee traders, this creates a major contradiction. Current weather is supporting production. Future weather could undermine it. Vietnam Supply Is Also Increasing Brazil is not the only major producer adding supply. Vietnam, the world's largest Robusta producer, is also showing signs of stronger production and exports. Vietnamese coffee exports during January-August 2026 increased 13.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million tonnes. That follows a 17.5% increase in 2025 exports to 1.58 million tonnes. Production is also expected to rise. Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected at approximately 1.76 million tonnes, equivalent to around 29.4 million bags. That would represent a 6% year-on-year increase and the country's highest production in four years. This is particularly important for Robusta coffee. The market had already seen Robusta prices fall sharply on expectations of increased Vietnamese supply. Vietnam Weather Is Supporting Cherry Development Vietnam's weather outlook is also becoming more favourable for production. Forecaster Vaisala reported that abundant rainfall has improved soil moisture levels across Vietnam's Central Highlands. The region is the country's most important coffee-growing area. Improved soil moisture should support cherry development and could help maintain the stronger production outlook. This creates another supply-side headwind for Robusta prices. However, as with Brazil, weather remains a variable rather than a certainty. Arabica Inventories Tell a Different Story The biggest bullish argument against the oversupply narrative comes from ICE Arabica inventories. ICE Arabica stocks fell to only 217,646 bags, a 27-year low, earlier in the week. Although inventories subsequently recovered to approximately 258,415 bags, the absolute level remains historically low. This matters because low exchange stocks indicate that immediately deliverable Arabica supplies remain relatively constrained. The market can therefore have: Record global production forecasts and tight exchange stocks at the same time. These two facts are not mutually exclusive. Production can be strong while inventories remain low because coffee is being consumed, exported and processed throughout the supply chain. This is why the Arabica market has a stronger bullish foundation than the broader global production figures might initially suggest. Robusta Inventories Are Sending a Bearish Signal Robusta presents a very different inventory picture. ICE Robusta inventories climbed to 5,043 lots, the highest level in approximately 9.5 months. That is significant because rising exchange inventories suggest increasing availability of deliverable Robusta supplies. The contrast is therefore striking: Arabica inventories: historically tight. Robusta inventories: rebuilding. This helps explain why the two coffee contracts can behave differently even when both are affected by the same global production forecasts. Bullish Sentiment 1. ICE Arabica Inventories Remain Extremely Low The fall to 217,646 bags, a 27-year low, demonstrates that available Arabica stocks remain historically tight. 2. El Niño Could Damage Brazil's Next Crop If El Niño delays September and October rainfall during the flowering period, Brazil's 2026/27 crop could fall below current expectations. 3. Weather Volatility Is Increasing Potential droughts, floods and temperature extremes could affect coffee production in both South America and Asia. 4. Arabica Production Risks Remain Higher Than the Headline Global Number Suggests USDA expects Arabica production to increase strongly, but that forecast depends heavily on favourable Brazilian growing conditions. 5. The Dollar Has Started to Reverse Lower A weaker dollar can provide temporary support to dollar-denominated coffee prices and encourage short covering. 6. Strong Consumption Can Absorb Additional Production Although the ICO expects a surplus, global coffee consumption remains enormous, meaning relatively small changes in production or demand can materially alter the balance. Bearish Sentiment 1. Global Production Is Heading Toward Records The ICO expects 183.6 million bags in 2025/26, while USDA expects 189.7 million bags in 2026/27. 2. The ICO Expects a 3 Million-Bag Surplus The projected first surplus in five years represents a major change in the global coffee balance. 3. Brazil Is Exporting Coffee at Record Levels August exports reached 4.155 million bags, up 31% year-on-year. 4. Vietnam Supply Is Increasing Vietnamese exports and production are both rising, creating additional pressure on the Robusta market. 5. Brazilian Rainfall Is Currently Favourable The extremely high rainfall recorded in Minas Gerais could support the next Arabica crop. 6. USDA Expects Higher Ending Stocks Global ending stocks are forecast to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. 7. Robusta Inventories Are Rising ICE Robusta stocks at a 9.5-month high indicate improving availability for the Robusta market. Coffee's Supply Story Is Bullish and Bearish at the Same Time The current coffee market is a classic example of why traders need to separate near-term physical availability from future crop risk. The bearish argument is dominated by the global production outlook. Brazil is exporting heavily. Vietnamese supply is increasing. The ICO sees a surplus. USDA expects another record crop. Ending stocks are forecast to rise. That is an unusually strong collection of bearish fundamentals. But Arabica has an important counterweight. ICE inventories remain historically low, while weather risks could quickly undermine the Brazilian production outlook. If El Niño causes a meaningful deterioration in Brazil's flowering conditions, the current 2026/27 production estimates could prove too optimistic. Why the Dollar Matters for Coffee Prices Friday's recovery demonstrates the importance of the currency market. Coffee is traded internationally in US dollars, meaning movements in the dollar index can influence commodity pricing even when physical fundamentals have not changed. The dollar's reversal from a seven-week high triggered short covering in coffee futures. This means traders should not look at coffee in isolation. The relationship between: US dollar → commodity purchasing power → global demand → producer economics → coffee futures can create significant short-term volatility. This is particularly relevant for international coffee businesses that have both commodity and currency exposure. What Traders Are Watching Next Brazil's 2026/27 Flowering The next several weeks will be crucial for determining whether rainfall remains beneficial or whether El Niño begins to interfere with the flowering cycle. El Niño Forecasts Any significant strengthening of El Niño expectations could quickly increase the weather premium in coffee futures. Brazilian Exports Continued record export volumes would reinforce the bearish supply argument. Vietnamese Production The size and quality of Vietnam's crop will remain especially important for Robusta. ICE Arabica Stocks A sustained recovery in Arabica inventories would weaken one of the strongest bullish arguments. A renewed decline toward the recent 27-year low would signal renewed physical tightness. ICE Robusta Stocks Further inventory increases would strengthen the bearish Robusta narrative. US Dollar A sustained dollar decline could provide technical support to coffee, while renewed dollar strength could put additional pressure on futures. USDA and ICO Forecast Revisions Any changes to global production, consumption or ending-stock estimates could rapidly alter market expectations. Currency Hedger View Coffee businesses face two markets simultaneously: the coffee market and the currency market. A coffee importer purchasing Arabica or Robusta in US dollars can face significant FX exposure even when the underlying commodity price is unchanged. The same applies to exporters receiving foreign-currency revenues, international traders, processors and companies paying overseas suppliers. A favourable coffee price does not necessarily mean a favourable commercial outcome if the currency moves against the business. This is where Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, provides a broader managed-FX perspective. Currency Hedger focuses on the complete FX environment surrounding international payments, considering factors including: Central-bank decisions Interest-rate expectations Inflation US dollar movements Commodity markets Energy prices Geopolitical developments Economic data Futures and forward pricing Market positioning The objective is to help clients understand the currency environment and consider potential FX levels around their commercial requirements. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Whether you are an international coffee trader, importer, exporter, manufacturer, investor or individual with significant foreign-currency requirements, Currency Hedger provides access to a managed FX service designed around market awareness and international currency exposure. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Stay Connected to the FX Market For more information about Currency Hedger's managed FX services and market intelligence: Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and operates through regulated payment infrastructure provided by its regulated partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information should not be interpreted as a guarantee of future exchange rates or future market outcomes. Today Markets View Coffee futures are showing a short-term recovery, but the broader fundamental backdrop remains heavily influenced by record production expectations and expanding global supply. The ICO's projected 3 million-bag surplus, record Brazil exports, stronger Vietnamese production and the USDA's forecast for 189.7 million bags of global production in 2026/27 all point toward a much more comfortable supply environment than the coffee market experienced during previous tight-supply periods. However, the bearish story is not complete. Arabica inventories remain historically low, and the potential impact of El Niño on Brazil's 2026/27 crop creates a significant upside risk. The key question for the market is therefore whether record production expectations will be confirmed by actual harvests and shipments, or whether weather disruption will force another round of supply downgrades. For now, the market appears to be giving greater weight to abundant supply. But coffee remains highly weather-sensitive. A significant deterioration in Brazil's flowering conditions could rapidly change the balance. “Coffee has moved from a scarcity-driven market toward a supply-driven market, with Brazil and Vietnam providing substantial additional availability. But historically low Arabica inventories and the potential impact of El Niño mean traders cannot ignore the weather risk surrounding the 2026/27 crop.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Today Markets Analysis | Coffee Futures | Arabica Coffee | Robusta Coffee | Coffee Price Forecast | Coffee Market Outlook | 2026/27 Coffee Prices

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September 19, 2026

Cocoa Futures Crash Over 3% as Ivory Coast Supply Surges and ICE Inventories Hit Two-Year High

Cocoa futures suffered another sharp sell-off as traders focused on abundant near-term supplies, surging Ivory Coast production and elevated ICE warehouse inventories, overwhelming longer-term concerns surrounding West African crop conditions and the potential impact of El Niño on the 2026/27 cocoa season. December ICE New York cocoa closed at 5,784, down 207 points or 3.46%, while December ICE London cocoa #7 settled at 4,240, down 125 points or 2.86%. Both contracts fell to approximately one-week lows as the market continued to unwind the powerful rally that carried cocoa futures sharply higher through the summer. The latest decline highlights the fundamental conflict currently defining the cocoa market. Near-term supply is looking increasingly comfortable, particularly in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer. At the same time, traders are already looking beyond the current harvest toward a potentially much smaller 2026/27 crop in Ghana and Ivory Coast, where disease, ageing trees, weather conditions and El Niño risks could tighten the global balance again. The result is a cocoa market with bearish immediate fundamentals but increasingly important bullish medium-term risks. Cocoa Market Snapshot Cocoa Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactDecember ICE NY Cocoa5,784Down 207 points / 3.46%December ICE London Cocoa #74,240Down 125 points / 2.86%Ivory Coast 2025/26 harvest2.06 MMTStrongly bearish near termIvory Coast production growth+30% YoYBearishIvory Coast international shipments2.14 MMT+18% YoYICE cocoa inventories~3.43M bagsNear two-year highGhana 2026/27 production estimate~650,000 MTBullish supply riskIvory Coast 2026/27 early estimate~1.8 MMTBullish supply riskStoneX 2026/27 surplus estimate25,000 MTMuch tighter balanceTransgraph 2026/27 surplus80,000 MTTighter than previous forecastGhana 2025/26 production750,000 MTStrong previous-season recoveryQ2 Europe grindings316,366 MTDown 4.6% YoYQ2 North America grindings109,659 MTUp 7.7% YoYQ2 Asia grindings224,646 MTUp 25% YoY Why Are Cocoa Futures Falling Today? The immediate catalyst is straightforward: the market has more cocoa available than traders had previously feared. Ivory Coast's cocoa regulator reported that farmers harvested approximately 2.06 million tonnes between June 2025 and June 2026, compared with 1.58 million tonnes in the previous period. That represents an increase of approximately 30% year-on-year. For cocoa traders, this is significant because Ivory Coast represents the world's largest producing origin. A major increase in production from the country's farms changes the short-term supply equation and reduces the urgency surrounding physical availability. International shipment data tell a similar story. Bloomberg data showed Ivory Coast cocoa shipments during the international marketing year reaching approximately 2.14 million tonnes, around 18% above the comparable period. The market therefore has a very clear near-term message: There is cocoa available. That has encouraged traders to remove some of the supply-risk premium that had accumulated during the previous rally. Ivory Coast Production Is the Biggest Bearish Catalyst The Ivory Coast remains the centre of the current bearish argument. The country's 2.06 MMT harvest represents a substantial recovery in production and demonstrates how quickly the physical market can change when growing conditions allow farmers to produce larger crops. The increase has helped reassure processors and commercial buyers that cocoa availability is considerably better than it was during the severe supply crisis that sent prices dramatically higher. However, there is an important complication. The Ivory Coast has changed its domestic marketing calendar, moving the beginning of its local marketing year to September 1. Under the revised calendar, Reuters data showed deliveries between September 1 and September 13 at approximately 26,000 tonnes, down 45.8% from the comparable period. Therefore, while the broader 2025/26 production numbers are extremely bearish, traders must be careful about interpreting early 2026/27 delivery figures because of the change in marketing-year timing. ICE Cocoa Inventories Remain a Major Bearish Signal Another major problem for cocoa bulls is the level of exchange-monitored inventories. ICE cocoa inventories reached approximately 3.44 million bags, close to the highest level in around two years. Stocks stood at approximately 3,436,742 bags on September 4, before remaining close to that level. That matters because warehouse inventories provide the market with a physical buffer. When inventories are extremely low, traders tend to price in a greater probability that even a modest supply disruption could create a shortage. When inventories are rebuilding, the market has more protection against production problems. This is why rising ICE stocks are currently acting as a significant bearish influence on cocoa prices. Recent market commentary has also pointed to the global cocoa market being considerably better supplied than during the 2023/24 crisis. The implication is clear: The market does not currently face the same immediate physical shortage that previously justified extreme cocoa prices. The 2026/27 Cocoa Crop Is a Very Different Story This is where the bearish argument becomes much less straightforward. While the current crop is generating abundant supply, preliminary estimates for 2026/27 point toward a meaningful deterioration in production. Ivory Coast's early production outlook has been placed around 1.8 million tonnes, compared with approximately 2.2 million tonnes previously. That would represent a potential decline of around 18%. Ghana is facing an even more complicated production outlook. Earlier estimates placed Ghana's 2026/27 crop around 650,000 tonnes, compared with approximately 750,000 tonnes during 2025/26. Other projections have suggested the possibility of an even lower production range. The reasons include: Ageing cocoa trees Swollen shoot disease Black pod disease Weather-related damage Poor flowering conditions Heavy rainfall Potential El Niño disruption Structural underinvestment in some producing regions This means traders cannot simply extrapolate the current year's strong Ivory Coast production into the next season. Cocoa Supply Estimates Are Becoming Much Tighter Several analysts have already reduced their estimates for the expected global cocoa surplus. StoneX reduced its 2026/27 surplus estimate to approximately 25,000 tonnes, from 149,000 tonnes previously. Transgraph reduced its estimate to around 80,000 tonnes, compared with an earlier forecast of 415,000 tonnes. The significance of these revisions is enormous. A market moving from a large projected surplus toward a near-balanced market has a much smaller margin of safety. A 25,000-tonne surplus is technically still a surplus. But compared with hundreds of thousands of tonnes, it leaves considerably less room for production disappointments. This is why the cocoa market can simultaneously experience bearish price pressure today and bullish supply risk for 2026/27. Ghana Cocoa Production Faces Structural Problems Ghana is another major source of uncertainty. The country produced approximately 750,000 tonnes during the 2025/26 season, representing a strong recovery of roughly 25.6% from the previous season's 597,000 tonnes. However, the recovery may not be sustainable. COCOBOD has warned about problems involving ageing farms, swollen shoot disease and weather conditions. Earlier projections suggested 2026/27 production could fall dramatically into a range of 450,000-550,000 tonnes. More recent estimates have put potential production closer to 650,000 tonnes, but the direction remains lower. The market therefore faces a potentially important supply contraction at exactly the time when traders are already reassessing global production. El Niño Could Become the Next Major Cocoa Catalyst Weather remains one of the most important variables for cocoa. A potentially powerful El Niño event could create significantly less favourable growing conditions across parts of West Africa. Cocoa trees require suitable moisture conditions and are vulnerable to prolonged periods of excessive heat or dryness. The market is therefore likely to become increasingly sensitive to weather forecasts as the 2026/27 crop develops. The important distinction is timing. El Niño is a future supply risk. High Ivory Coast production and elevated ICE stocks are current supply realities. That explains why bearish pressure can dominate prices today even while traders remain concerned about the next crop. Cocoa Demand Is Sending Mixed Signals Supply is only half of the cocoa equation. Demand has also become an important source of uncertainty after the huge price increases experienced during the previous cocoa rally. High cocoa prices have forced chocolate manufacturers and processors to manage costs aggressively. European cocoa grindings illustrate the pressure. Q2 European grindings fell 4.6% year-on-year to 316,366 tonnes, the lowest Q2 level in six years. That is a significant bearish demand signal. However, North America delivered a very different result. Q2 North American grindings increased 7.7% to 109,659 tonnes. Asia was stronger again, with Q2 grindings increasing 25% to 224,646 tonnes. The result is a fragmented demand picture. Europe is showing meaningful demand weakness, while North America and Asia are providing evidence that cocoa consumption has not collapsed globally. Bullish Sentiment 1. 2026/27 Supply Could Contract Sharply The most important bullish argument is the possibility that production declines across Ghana and Ivory Coast could substantially reduce the global supply buffer. 2. El Niño Creates Significant Weather Risk A powerful El Niño could damage the next crop and accelerate the reduction in global supply expectations. 3. Ivory Coast 2026/27 Production Could Fall 18% An early estimate of approximately 1.8 MMT versus around 2.2 MMT would represent a substantial decline from the previous season. 4. Ghana Faces Structural Production Problems Ageing farms, swollen shoot disease and weather-related issues could prevent Ghana from maintaining its recent production recovery. 5. Global Surplus Forecasts Are Shrinking StoneX and Transgraph have both reduced their projected 2026/27 surpluses significantly. A much smaller surplus leaves the market more vulnerable to any additional supply disruption. 6. Asian Cocoa Demand Remains Strong Asian Q2 grindings increased 25%, demonstrating that higher cocoa prices have not eliminated demand across every major consuming region. Bearish Sentiment 1. Ivory Coast Production Has Surged The 2.06 MMT harvest represents a 30% year-on-year increase and is currently one of the strongest bearish fundamentals in the market. 2. ICE Inventories Are Near Two-Year Highs Inventories around 3.43 million bags provide a substantial physical buffer and reduce immediate shortage fears. 3. The Global Market Is Currently Well Supplied Industry commentary indicates that physical cocoa availability is considerably healthier than during the previous supply crisis. 4. European Grindings Are Falling The 4.6% decline in European Q2 grindings suggests that high cocoa prices have already affected demand. 5. Higher Prices Can Destroy Demand Chocolate manufacturers can reformulate products, reduce cocoa content, delay purchases or pass higher costs to consumers. These mechanisms can ultimately limit how far cocoa prices can rise. 6. Current Supply Is Stronger Than Expected The market had previously priced significant West African supply risks into futures. The latest production figures show that at least some of those fears were overstated for the current crop. The Cocoa Market Is Being Pulled in Two Directions The current cocoa market can therefore be divided into two separate stories. The 2025/26 story is bearish. Production has recovered, Ivory Coast shipments are strong, ICE inventories are high and global physical availability has improved. The 2026/27 story is considerably more uncertain. Ghanaian production could decline, Ivory Coast production may fall sharply, disease remains a problem and El Niño could further damage the next crop. This distinction is extremely important for traders. A bearish short-term market does not automatically mean the longer-term supply outlook is bearish. Likewise, a potentially tighter 2026/27 balance does not automatically mean cocoa prices must immediately return to their previous highs. Cocoa Prices Previously Reached 11.5-Month Highs The scale of the recent reversal is also important. New York cocoa reached an approximately 11.5-month high on August 31, while London cocoa reached an approximately 11.5-month high on September 1. The subsequent decline shows how quickly sentiment can change when production data contradicts supply fears. The market has therefore moved from aggressively pricing supply risk toward aggressively pricing improved availability. That makes cocoa particularly sensitive to every new production, inventory and weather report. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major cocoa price moves are likely to depend on several variables. Ivory Coast Crop Development Traders will monitor early 2026/27 arrivals and production reports to determine whether the projected decline toward 1.8 MMT is realistic. Ghana Production The size of the Ghana crop will be closely watched as disease and weather concerns remain elevated. ICE Warehouse Stocks A continued rise in exchange stocks would strengthen the bearish case, while a sustained decline could quickly revive supply concerns. West African Weather Rainfall, sunshine, disease and crop development will remain critical. El Niño Any strengthening of El Niño forecasts could rapidly increase the risk premium embedded in cocoa futures. Global Grindings European, North American and Asian processing data will provide important evidence about whether high cocoa prices are continuing to destroy demand. Currency Markets The US dollar and major producer-country currencies can influence commodity pricing, producer economics and hedging decisions. Currency Hedger View Cocoa is a global commodity, but businesses exposed to cocoa prices are also exposed to foreign-exchange risk. Chocolate manufacturers, cocoa processors, importers, exporters, traders and international businesses can have substantial payments in USD, EUR, GBP and other currencies. That means managing the cocoa price is only part of the financial equation. A favourable cocoa purchase price can be affected by an adverse currency move. This is where Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, focuses on the wider FX picture. Currency Hedger provides a managed FX service for business and personal clients, combining currency execution with market intelligence and an understanding of the factors driving exchange rates. Our market approach considers areas including: Central-bank policy Interest-rate expectations Inflation Energy markets Commodity prices Geopolitical developments Economic data Currency positioning Global capital flows Futures and forward-market pricing For businesses with significant international payments, the objective is not simply to exchange currency when a payment becomes due. It is to understand the market environment, identify potential exchange-rate levels and consider how FX exposure can be managed around commercial requirements. Managed FX for Business and Personal Clients Whether you are importing commodities, paying overseas suppliers, receiving international revenues, purchasing property abroad or managing personal international transfers, Currency Hedger can help you approach the FX side of the transaction with greater market awareness. Open a Currency Hedger Account Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account To understand more about our managed FX services, market intelligence and international currency solutions: Visit Currency Hedger Currency Hedger is part of Octalas Group and operates through regulated payment infrastructure provided by its regulated partners. FX markets involve risk, and market information should not be interpreted as a guarantee of future exchange rates or trading outcomes. Today Markets View Cocoa futures are currently facing a powerful bearish combination of higher Ivory Coast production, strong export flows and elevated ICE inventories. That explains the sharp decline from the recent highs. However, the longer-term picture is far less straightforward. The projected decline in Ghanaian and Ivory Coast production, shrinking 2026/27 surplus estimates, disease concerns and the potential impact of a strong El Niño could all rebuild the cocoa risk premium if the next crop deteriorates. For now, the market is being driven by the reality of abundant current supply rather than the possibility of future shortages. That makes the next phase of the cocoa market heavily dependent on crop development. If 2026/27 production begins to confirm the more bearish estimates, cocoa could remain under pressure as inventories continue rebuilding. If weather conditions deteriorate and production forecasts are revised lower again, the market could quickly shift its focus back toward scarcity. For traders, the key question is therefore not simply whether cocoa is bullish or bearish. It is whether the current supply recovery can continue long enough to rebuild inventories before the next West African crop comes under pressure. “Cocoa is currently being priced around abundant near-term availability, but the 2026/27 crop could become the next major test for the market. The balance between rising inventories today and declining production expectations tomorrow will remain critical for cocoa prices.” Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Today Markets Analysis | Commodities | Cocoa Futures | Cocoa Price Forecast | Cocoa Market Outlook | 2026/27 Cocoa Supply

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September 19, 2026

Sugar Prices Fall to Three-Week Lows as Demand Concerns Clash With Global Supply Risks

Sugar prices fell to three-week lows on Friday before recovering slightly, with New York sugar settling lower while London white sugar finished marginally higher as demand concerns continued to weigh on the market. October NY World Sugar #11 closed at 17.39 cents per pound, down 0.06 cents or 0.34%, while December London ICE White Sugar #5 closed at $532.30 per tonne, up $0.20 or 0.04%. The market remains caught between two competing forces. On the bearish side, weak physical demand, heavy deliveries against the expiring October London contract and substantial speculative long positions are creating liquidation risk. On the other side, the medium-term supply outlook remains more supportive, with the International Sugar Organization forecasting a 2026/27 global deficit, while production risks are emerging in Thailand, India and Brazil. This leaves sugar traders balancing near-term demand weakness against the possibility of tighter global supplies in the coming seasons. Sugar Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalOct 26 NY Sugar #1117.39¢/lbDaily move-0.06¢ / -0.34%Dec 26 London White Sugar #5$532.30/MTDaily move+$0.20 / +0.04%October London sugar delivery499,350 MTDelivery change YoY+91%2026/27 ISO balance200,000 MT deficit2025/26 ISO balance1.1 MMT surplusThailand 2026/27 production estimate10 MMT, -17% YoYStoneX 2026/27 deficit estimate1.7 MMTCovrig 2026/27 deficit estimate300,000 MTCzarnikow 2027/28 deficit estimate2.9 MMTIndia monsoon rainfall15% below normalIndia raw sugar imports permittedUp to 1 MMTBrazil Center-South June production3.903 MMT, -26.3% YoY Why Are Sugar Prices Falling? The immediate pressure on sugar is coming from demand concerns and signs of weakness in the physical market. The October London sugar contract expired earlier this week with 499,350 metric tons delivered, an increase of 91% from the same period last year. The size of the delivery was one of the largest recorded for an October contract. The unusually large volume suggests that physical demand has not been strong enough to absorb available supplies at prevailing prices. That has provided a bearish signal for futures. At the same time, sugar had previously rallied strongly on expectations of a global production deficit. The market is now correcting some of those gains as traders reassess whether the anticipated supply tightness is sufficiently immediate to offset current demand weakness. Large Speculative Positions Increase Liquidation Risk Positioning is another important factor. The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money increased its net long NY sugar position by 28,055 contracts during the week ending September 8. That took the overall net long position to 160,551 contracts, the highest level in almost three years. Large speculative long positions can provide support while prices are rising. However, they can also increase downside pressure if market sentiment changes. If traders begin reducing those positions simultaneously, long liquidation can accelerate selling pressure regardless of the underlying longer-term supply fundamentals. This is particularly relevant because NY sugar had recently reached a 17-month high. The market therefore entered its current correction after a substantial speculative build-up. Global Sugar Balance Is Becoming More Supportive Despite the recent decline, the longer-term supply outlook remains an important bullish consideration. The International Sugar Organization expects the global sugar market to move from a 1.1 million-tonne surplus in 2025/26 to a 200,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27. That represents a significant change in the projected global balance. The ISO expects global sugar production to decline approximately 1% year-on-year to 180.1 MMT in 2026/27. The potential deficit is being driven by concerns over production in several major growing regions. However, forecasts differ considerably between organizations. StoneX currently sees a 1.7 MMT global deficit, while Covrig Analytics has also moved toward a deficit scenario. Czarnikow is projecting an even larger 2.9 MMT deficit for 2027/28. The differences between these estimates demonstrate the uncertainty surrounding future global production. Thailand Production Outlook Adds Supply Concerns Thailand remains one of the most important factors in the global sugar balance. The country is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, making changes in Thai production particularly important for international prices. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected that 2026/27 Thai sugar production could fall 17% year-on-year to approximately 10 MMT. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service has also projected a significant decline, forecasting Thai production at approximately 9.5 MMT. Lower production from Thailand would reduce export availability and could tighten the global market if production losses are not offset elsewhere. India's Monsoon Is Another Key Supply Factor India is also becoming increasingly important to the sugar outlook. India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall at 15% below normal as of September 16. Although that represents a substantial improvement from the 42% deficit recorded at the end of June, rainfall remains below normal. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, meaning weather conditions can have a significant influence on global availability. The Indian government has also authorized up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31. The decision is notable because India is normally an important sugar exporter. The move therefore highlights concerns surrounding domestic supply and the country's sugar balance. Brazil Production Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty Brazil remains the world's largest sugar-producing country and a critical component of global exports. Recent production data has provided some support to sugar prices. Unica reported that Center-South Brazil sugar production fell 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 MMT in June. Brazil's sugar industry is also influenced by the relative economics of producing sugar versus ethanol. Higher crude oil prices can improve the economics of ethanol production and encourage mills to allocate a greater share of sugarcane toward ethanol rather than sugar. That can reduce the amount of sugar entering the global market. Consequently, the relationship between crude oil prices, ethanol economics and Brazilian sugar production remains an important cross-market relationship for sugar traders. El Niño Creates Additional Production Risk Weather remains one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the medium-term sugar outlook. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has warned that the developing El Niño weather pattern could become one of the strongest in decades. El Niño can alter rainfall patterns across major agricultural regions. For sugar, potential reductions in rainfall across Brazil, India and Thailand could affect cane development and yields. The impact will depend heavily on the duration and severity of the weather pattern. At present, weather risk is therefore providing a potential bullish counterweight to the weaker physical demand signals. The Global Market Is Moving From Surplus Toward Deficit The fundamental story is changing. For 2025/26, the ISO expects: 182 MMT production versus 1.1 MMT global surplus For 2026/27, the organization forecasts: 180.1 MMT production versus 200,000 MT global deficit The USDA's May forecast is somewhat different. It expects 2026/27 global production of 184.854 MMT, down from 186.056 MMT in 2025/26. Global human consumption is expected to rise 0.4% to 179.991 MMT, while ending stocks are projected to increase 2% to 44.410 MMT. This illustrates why sugar prices remain difficult to assess. Some forecasts point toward tightening supply, while others still show relatively comfortable inventories. Bullish Sentiment 1. Global Deficit Forecasts Are Increasing The ISO expects the global sugar market to move into a 200,000 MT deficit in 2026/27 after a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26. 2. Thailand Production Could Decline Sharply Thai production estimates point toward a potential decline of 15%-17%, reducing export availability from one of the world's largest sugar suppliers. 3. Brazilian Production Has Been Weak Center-South Brazil sugar production fell 26.3% year-on-year in June according to Unica. 4. India Is Allowing Sugar Imports India's decision to permit up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports highlights concerns surrounding domestic supply. 5. El Niño Could Reduce Production Potentially disruptive weather across Brazil, India and Thailand could tighten global sugar supplies. 6. Longer-Term Deficit Forecasts Are Increasing StoneX estimates a 1.7 MMT deficit for 2026/27, while Czarnikow sees a potential 2.9 MMT deficit in 2027/28. Bearish Sentiment 1. Sugar Fell to Three-Week Lows NY sugar declined to its lowest level in three weeks before recovering slightly. 2. Large Physical Delivery Signals Weak Demand The expired October London contract attracted 499,350 MT of deliveries, up 91% year-on-year. 3. Speculative Long Positions Are Elevated Managed money held a net long position of 160,551 NY sugar contracts, leaving the market vulnerable to long liquidation. 4. 2025/26 Still Has a Global Surplus The ISO expects a 1.1 MMT surplus for the current 2025/26 season. 5. USDA Forecasts Relatively High Production The USDA expects 2026/27 global production to remain close to 185 MMT, while ending stocks are forecast to increase. 6. Demand Concerns Remain The large London delivery against the expiring contract indicates that physical demand is currently struggling to absorb available sugar. Sugar Prices Face a Fundamental Timing Problem One of the most important questions for traders is when the expected supply deficit will actually become visible in physical markets. The longer-term outlook may be tightening, but futures prices are influenced by the balance between current availability and expectations for future supply. At present, physical-market indicators are sending mixed signals. The very large October London delivery points toward weak immediate demand. Meanwhile, production forecasts for 2026/27 and 2027/28 increasingly point toward potential deficits. This creates a timing problem. If supply concerns materialize faster than expected, sugar could regain upward momentum. If production remains sufficient and demand stays weak, the market could continue correcting despite the longer-term deficit forecasts. What Traders Are Watching Next The major sugar-market catalysts include: Global sugar production forecasts ISO supply-and-demand revisions USDA sugar forecasts Thailand sugar production India's monsoon rainfall Indian sugar imports and exports Brazil Center-South production Brazil sugar-versus-ethanol allocation Crude oil prices El Niño developments Global sugar consumption Physical sugar demand London contract deliveries ICE sugar positioning CFTC managed-money positioning Global ending stocks Currency movements in major producing countries The relationship between crude oil and sugar will remain particularly important because stronger oil prices can improve the economics of Brazilian ethanol production. That can potentially reduce the proportion of sugarcane processed into sugar and tighten global export availability. Today Markets View Sugar prices are currently caught between weak near-term demand and increasingly significant medium-term supply risks. Friday's modest decline in New York sugar followed a move to three-week lows, while London white sugar managed to finish marginally higher. The immediate bearish signal is the 499,350 MT delivery against the expired October London contract, combined with elevated speculative long positioning. However, the longer-term fundamental picture is less straightforward. The ISO expects the global market to move from a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26 to a 200,000 MT deficit in 2026/27, while other analysts see substantially larger deficits. At the same time, Thailand faces potentially lower production, India's rainfall remains below normal and Brazil has reported significant production weakness. The key question for the market is therefore whether demand weakness and available inventories can continue to offset emerging production risks. For now, the market is showing that traders are focused more heavily on current physical demand than on longer-term deficit projections. That balance could change quickly if weather conditions deteriorate or production estimates are revised lower. “Sugar is currently a market of competing timelines. Near-term physical demand remains a source of pressure, while production risks in Brazil, India and Thailand are increasingly shaping the medium-term outlook. The size of speculative long positions adds another layer of volatility, leaving the market particularly sensitive to changes in supply forecasts, weather and physical demand.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 19, 2026

Cotton Futures Fall as Export Pace Lags Expectations — What Happens Next for Cotton Prices?

Today Markets Analysis Cotton futures extended their weekly decline on Friday as selling pressure returned across the front months, with weaker export momentum, reduced managed-money exposure and falling crude oil prices adding to the bearish tone. October 2026 cotton futures closed at 77.38 cents per pound, down 103 points, while December cotton settled at 81.15 cents, down 102 points. March 2027 cotton closed at 83.79 cents, also down 102 points. The December contract finished the week approximately 491 points lower, highlighting the extent of the selling pressure that has developed across the cotton market. Crude oil also weakened sharply on Friday, falling $2.38 per barrel, while the US dollar index declined 0.040. The combination of weaker energy prices, softer futures momentum and evidence that speculative positioning is being reduced has created a more cautious environment for cotton. However, the fundamental picture is not uniformly bearish. US cotton export commitments remain 13% above the five-year average, while ICE certified stocks remain relatively low at 36,617 bales. The key question for traders is therefore whether the current decline represents a deeper deterioration in cotton fundamentals or a correction following the market's recent advance. Cotton Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalOct 26 Cotton77.38¢/lbDaily move-103 pointsDec 26 Cotton81.15¢/lbDaily move-102 pointsDec 26 weekly move-491 pointsMar 27 Cotton83.79¢/lbDaily move-102 pointsManaged money net long97,903 contractsWeekly managed-money change-2,267 contracts2026/27 export commitments4.504 million RBExport commitments vs 5-year average+13%Commitments vs USDA forecast pace39%Average pace48%Cotlook A Index94.35¢/lbICE certified stocks36,617 balesAdjusted World Price68.92¢/lbCrude oil-$2.38 FridayUS Dollar Index-0.040 Friday USDA's September 17 export data showed 4.504 million running bales of upland cotton commitments for the 2026/27 marketing year, compared with 3.973 million a year earlier. Weekly upland sales were 71,231 RB, while shipments were approximately 142,100 RB. Why Are Cotton Futures Falling? The latest decline reflects several factors rather than one single catalyst. The most immediate pressure is coming from technical selling and weakening momentum. December cotton has fallen sharply over the week, and the market has moved away from the higher levels seen earlier in September. At the same time, managed money reduced its net-long position by 2,267 contracts, taking the position to 97,903 contracts. That remains a substantial net-long exposure, but the reduction indicates that speculative traders have started to take some exposure off the table. The CFTC's latest data also show the broader positioning structure across Cotton No. 2 futures, with the report updated September 18. This matters because a market carrying a sizeable speculative long position can become vulnerable to additional liquidation if technical support levels fail. Export Demand Remains the Key Fundamental Question US cotton exports provide a mixed signal. Total 2026/27 commitments had reached approximately 4.5 million RB as of September 10. That is 13% above the five-year average, indicating that demand has not disappeared. However, commitments are only running at approximately 39% of the USDA export forecast, compared with a normal pace of around 48%. This is the important distinction. The absolute level of commitments is relatively strong compared with historical averages, but the market is progressing more slowly than the pace normally required to reach the USDA's full-season export projection. That creates uncertainty about whether exports will accelerate later in the marketing year. Weekly sales of 71,231 RB were also down approximately 4% from the previous week and 30% below the prior four-week average, according to the latest export-sales data. Shipments Provide a More Positive Signal While new sales were relatively modest, actual shipments have been stronger. USDA data showed approximately 142,100 RB of upland cotton exports during the week ending September 10. The largest destinations included: Vietnam — 44,600 RB Pakistan — 24,700 RB India — 18,000 RB Bangladesh — 16,200 RB Mexico — 9,900 RB That indicates that existing commitments continue to translate into physical exports. This is important because shipments represent cotton that is actually moving through the international supply chain rather than simply being contracted for future delivery. Managed Money Is Still Long Cotton CFTC positioning deserves close attention. Managed money held a net-long position of approximately 97,903 cotton contracts after reducing exposure by 2,267 contracts during the week. The position remains heavily net long. That creates two opposing possibilities. If prices stabilize and fundamentals improve, the large speculative long position could provide a source of buying interest. However, if prices continue falling and technical levels are broken, traders carrying long positions may continue reducing exposure. That could amplify downside pressure. The market therefore needs to determine whether current selling represents normal profit-taking or the beginning of a larger liquidation cycle. ICE Cotton Stocks Remain Relatively Tight ICE certified cotton stocks were unchanged at 36,617 bales on September 17. The relatively limited level of certified stocks provides an underlying supportive factor for the market. Low exchange stocks can become increasingly important when nearby futures contracts approach delivery periods and physical cotton availability becomes a greater consideration. However, certified stocks are only one component of the overall cotton supply picture. The market must also consider: US production Harvest progress Export demand Mill consumption Global production Global inventories Chinese demand Brazilian exports Indian production Pakistani production Weather Therefore, the current low ICE stock figure should not be interpreted in isolation. Cotlook A Index Remains Well Above Futures The Cotlook A Index was reported at 94.35 cents per pound on September 17. That remains substantially above December futures at 81.15 cents. The difference between physical-market indications and futures pricing is noteworthy. It suggests that the physical cotton market and futures market are not currently sending exactly the same signal. Futures are increasingly reflecting expectations about future supply, demand and speculative positioning, while physical prices can respond differently depending on the availability and quality of cotton in specific regions. This spread will be important to monitor as the US harvest progresses. US Cotton Harvest Becomes Increasingly Important The US crop is now moving into the harvest period. Recent USDA-related market commentary indicates that US cotton harvest progress has moved ahead of the historical pace, with approximately 8% harvested in the latest weekly assessment. The same report showed only 36% of the crop rated good to excellent, highlighting continued concerns over crop conditions. The harvest introduces another important variable. If actual production confirms expectations for a relatively large crop, additional physical availability could weigh on futures. If yields disappoint, however, the market could quickly refocus on tightening US supply expectations. This creates a potentially important transition period for cotton. Crude Oil Is Adding Pressure Crude oil fell $2.38 per barrel on Friday. Energy prices matter to cotton for several reasons. Lower oil prices can reduce the relative attractiveness of competing synthetic fibres such as polyester, while energy costs also influence transportation, processing and agricultural input costs. Cotton therefore has a complex relationship with energy markets. A sustained decline in crude oil could remove some support from the broader commodity complex and reinforce risk-off positioning among commodity funds. At the same time, lower energy costs can reduce production and transportation expenses for growers and processors. The ultimate impact therefore depends on the duration and magnitude of the oil-price move. The US Dollar Remains an Important Variable The US dollar index declined 0.040 on Friday. Because cotton is priced in US dollars, currency movements can influence international purchasing power. A stronger dollar can make US cotton more expensive for overseas buyers when measured in their domestic currencies. A weaker dollar can have the opposite effect. This means cotton traders must watch the relationship between: US dollar + export demand + global purchasing power. Currency movements could therefore become increasingly important if the dollar begins a sustained trend in either direction. Bullish Sentiment 1. Export Commitments Remain Above the Five-Year Average US cotton export commitments are approximately 13% above the five-year average. That indicates that underlying international demand remains significant. 2. Physical Shipments Remain Active Weekly upland shipments were approximately 142,100 RB, with Vietnam, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh among the leading destinations. 3. ICE Certified Stocks Remain Limited Certified stocks remain at 36,617 bales. Low exchange stocks can provide underlying support, particularly when nearby delivery becomes more important. 4. Managed Money Still Holds a Large Net-Long Position Although managed money reduced its position, funds remain net long by approximately 97,903 contracts. If market sentiment improves, that positioning could provide potential buying support. 5. Physical Cotton Prices Remain Above Futures The Cotlook A Index at 94.35 cents remains significantly above December futures. That indicates that physical-market values continue to provide an important counterpoint to the weakness in futures. Bearish Sentiment 1. December Cotton Fell 491 Points This Week The size of the weekly decline indicates substantial selling pressure. 2. Export Sales Are Behind the Normal Pace Although commitments are 13% above the five-year average, they represent only approximately 39% of the USDA forecast, compared with a normal pace of 48%. 3. Managed Money Is Reducing Long Exposure Funds reduced their net-long position by 2,267 contracts. Further liquidation could increase downside pressure if prices continue weakening. 4. Weekly New Sales Remain Modest Upland sales of 71,231 RB were below the previous week and the prior four-week average. 5. Crude Oil Fell Sharply Oil declined $2.38 per barrel, potentially adding broader pressure to commodity markets. 6. Harvest Pressure Is Increasing As the US harvest progresses, the market will receive more information about actual production and physical availability. A larger-than-expected crop could increase supply pressure. Cotton Is Approaching an Important Technical Test The December contract closed Friday at 81.15 cents per pound. That places the market close to the 80-cent area, which is likely to become an important psychological and technical reference point. Recent market commentary identifies December support around 82.60, 82.00 and 80.40, with resistance around 86.70, 88.80 and 91.10. The market therefore faces an important technical question. If December cotton can stabilize around the low-80-cent area, the recent decline could develop into a consolidation phase. If that area fails decisively, traders may begin looking toward lower technical support zones. Conversely, a recovery back above the mid-80-cent region would indicate that selling pressure is losing momentum. Technical levels should be viewed alongside the underlying fundamental data rather than in isolation. The Supply-Demand Balance Is Becoming More Important Cotton is currently caught between two competing narratives. The first is demand resilience. Export commitments are above the five-year average, shipments remain active and the Cotlook A Index remains elevated. The second is forward-market caution. Export commitments are behind the normal seasonal pace relative to the USDA forecast, managed money is reducing long exposure and futures have suffered a substantial weekly decline. That creates an increasingly important question: Will physical demand strengthen enough to absorb the additional cotton entering the market during the US harvest? If demand accelerates, current futures levels could attract renewed buying interest. If demand remains sluggish while production proves strong, the market could face additional pressure. What Traders Are Watching Next The major cotton-market catalysts include: US harvest progress US crop condition ratings US cotton production USDA export sales Weekly export shipments China cotton demand Vietnamese cotton demand Pakistan cotton demand Indian production Brazilian exports ICE certified stocks Cotlook A Index Adjusted World Price CFTC managed-money positioning US dollar movements Crude oil prices Global textile demand Polyester prices Weather across major cotton-producing regions The next USDA export report will be particularly important because the market needs evidence that export demand can accelerate sufficiently to close the gap between the current commitment pace and the full-season forecast. Currency Hedger View Cotton is a US-dollar-denominated commodity, meaning international buyers and sellers can face two separate sources of price exposure. The first is the cotton price itself. The second is the exchange rate between the buyer's or seller's domestic currency and the US dollar. For example, a textile manufacturer purchasing US cotton may see the dollar value of the cotton remain unchanged while the company's domestic currency weakens against the dollar. The effective cost of the purchase can therefore increase even without a change in the underlying cotton price. This creates a combined exposure: Cotton price + USD exchange-rate risk. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group Ltd, provides managed FX services for businesses and individuals with international currency requirements. Our approach considers the wider market environment, including: Central-bank policy Interest-rate expectations Inflation Commodity prices US dollar trends Economic data Technical market levels Futures markets Geopolitical developments For businesses involved in cotton, textiles, agriculture or international trade, managing the currency component of a transaction can be an important part of managing overall commercial exposure. Business Account Open a Currency Hedger Business Account Personal Account Open a Currency Hedger Personal Account Visit Currency Hedger www.currencyhedger.com Today Markets View Cotton futures ended the week under significant pressure, with December futures falling approximately 491 points and closing at 81.15 cents per pound. The market is now approaching an important area where export demand, harvest expectations and speculative positioning will increasingly determine direction. The bullish case remains supported by export commitments above the five-year average, active physical shipments, relatively limited ICE certified stocks and a Cotlook A Index substantially above futures. However, the bearish case is becoming more visible through the large weekly decline, slower-than-normal export progress relative to the USDA forecast, reduced managed-money exposure, increasing harvest availability and weaker crude oil prices. The critical issue is whether international demand accelerates quickly enough to absorb US production as the harvest progresses. For now, cotton remains caught between firm underlying physical-market indicators and increasingly cautious futures-market positioning. The 80-cent area in December cotton, export sales, shipment volumes, harvest progress and managed-money positioning will be particularly important indicators over the coming sessions. “Cotton is entering an important transition period. Physical-market indicators remain relatively firm, but futures are increasingly pricing concerns about export pace, harvest availability and speculative liquidation. The next phase of the market will depend heavily on whether international demand accelerates enough to absorb new-crop supplies.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Banks

September 18, 2026

Swiss Franc: Consolidation holds below 0.8300 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF remains in a consolidation phase after a sharp rally, with intraday trading expected between 0.8225 and 0.8265. He stays positive over the 1–3 week horizon but says it is still too early to confirm a break above 0.8300, while a move below 0.8185 would negate this view. Dollar consolidates below key resistance "24-HOUR VIEW: Following the sharp rally in USD that reached a high of 0.8265 two days ago, we indicated yesterday that “the sharp rally appears to be overdone, and USD is unlikely to rise much further.” We highlighted that USD “is more likely to consolidate between 0.8225 and 0.8275.” USD then traded within a 0.8220/0.8262 range, closing slightly lower by 0.12% at 0.8243. The price action is likely an ongoing consolidation phase. Today, USD is likely to trade between 0.8225 and 0.8265." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on USD one week ago. Yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 0.8250), we stated that “while momentum remains strong, it is too early to tell whether it is sufficient for USD to break above 0.8300.” Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 0.8185 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that 0.8300 is not coming into view."

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Banks

September 18, 2026

Czech Koruna: CNB pause before potential November hike – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that the Czech National Bank (CNB) kept its policy rate at 3.75% with a dovish tone versus market pricing, but ING economists now expect a hike in November due to higher inflation forecasts and elevated global energy prices. While EUR/CZK trades around 24.300–24.350, ING sees a stronger Dollar lifting the pair near term before potential CNB hawkishness supports the Koruna. CNB stance and Koruna outlook "The Czech National Bank yesterday left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% in a unanimous decision. The CNB press conference struck a dovish tone relative to market pricing, as expected, but signalled a "no-change" stance compared to the August meeting. The CNB Board remains open to further rate hikes yet sees no need to rush at this moment." "However, our economists changed their forecast from unchanged rates to a hike in November, given our upside revision in the Czech inflation forecast and elevated global energy prices." "While the initial market reaction was dovish, rates ultimately ended the day unchanged from pre-decision levels. The CNB outlook remains a mixed bag; four rate hikes are still priced in, and the yield curve saw only slight steepening." "Looking ahead, we anticipate the CNB adopting a more hawkish stance in the coming weeks and months. This should shift the curve from steepening to flattening and support the currency." "EUR/CZK briefly touched 24.350 yesterday but closed lower. For now, the 24.300–24.350 range appears fair, though we expect a stronger US dollar to push the pair higher in the coming days."

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Forex Trading

September 18, 2026

Trade of The Day – AUD/USD

Facts: The pair bounced off the key resistance area near 0.7130 AUDUSD sits below the 100-period moving average from H4 interval Recommendation: Trade: Short position on AUDUSD at market price Target: 0.7067, 0.7000 Stop: 0.7165 Opinion: AUDUSD has been trading in an upward trend recently, but the pair may be experiencing a trend reversal. Looking at the H4 interval, one can see that the price bounced off the key 0.7130 resistance area. The green area near 0.7130 handle on the chart below is marked with previous price reactions and lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles). According to the Overbalance strategy, invalidating 1:1 geometry may herald a resumption of a downward trend. As long as the price sits below 0.7130, the further downward move is the base case scenario. We recommend going short AUDUSD at market price with two targets: 0.7067, 0.7000. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.7165. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

September 18, 2026

Chart of The Day – Yen in a Trap. BoJ Hike That Weakened the Currency

The Bank of Japan did exactly what the market expected, raising the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995. In a textbook scenario, such tightening should support the currency. Meanwhile, the yen reacted with a weakening, and the USDJPY pair dynamically returned above the 157 barrier. This is the best proof that the market cares today not about the decision itself, but about the signal regarding the future path, and this one turned out to be disappointingly dovish. Two Dissenters Ruin the Narrative The key is the vote breakdown, which was 7 to 2. Voting against the hike were Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, the two newest board members nominated by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, known for their favorability toward loose monetary and fiscal policy. The market read this unambiguously. Two distinct camps emerged within the Bank of Japan, and the bank is less united on the pace of further tightening than assumed just a few days ago. The bar for further moves has just risen, and the hawkish tone of the statement was effectively diluted by the mere existence of the split. Fed Wins the Rhetoric Duel The background remains relentless for the yen. Two days earlier, the Fed not only raised rates but, through Kevin Warsh, communicated a hard stance in the spirit of "higher for longer," driving US bond yields toward 5 percent. The effect is simple. The rate divergence between the United States and Japan still strongly favors the dollar, and carry trade—borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad—remains attractive. A hawkish Fed paired with a less hawkish BoJ is a simple recipe for a weak yen, even despite the formal hike in Tokyo. BoJ Forecasts: The Paradox of a Weak Currency It is worth looking deeper into the bank's projections, because that is where the biggest paradox lies. The BoJ forecasts that core inflation, excluding fresh food, will accelerate clearly above 2 percent from the second half of fiscal year 2026, driven by the pass-through of earlier oil price increases, rising semiconductor and AI-boom-related components, and, most importantly, yen depreciation translating into durable goods prices. The bank expects inflation to return to the 2 percent target only later in the forecast horizon. Additionally, there are rising inflation expectations and the risk that companies will increasingly boldly raise wages and prices. Technical Analysis and Z-Score On the USDJPY daily chart, quotes around 157.2 have just broken above the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement at 157.15, determined for the downward move from the 164.07 to 152.87 region. Maintaining above this level opens the way toward the 50 percent retracement at 158.47, and then the key 61.8 percent resistance in the 159.79 region. This is where the barrier deciding on the return to the broader upward trend runs. Support remains at the 23.6 percent retracement at 155.51, the breach of which would direct attention back toward the lows around 152.87. Statistical analysis based on the z-score—the price deviation from its averages in terms of standard deviations—provides interesting conclusions. In each of the examined horizons, from 75 sessions, through one and two years, to five years, the indicator is currently in the neutral zone. The short-term 75-session z-score is minus 0.82, meaning the price is slightly below its recent average, signaling a pause rather than exhaustion of the move. On the other hand, the two-year z-score at 0.69 and the five-year z-score at 1.05 confirm that in the long term, the exchange rate remains above averages, and the structural yen weakening trend remains in force. In other words, we are not dealing with extreme overbought or oversold conditions, which leaves room for the continuation of the upward move without the risk of an immediate, sharp reversal. One salvation remains for the yen. Ueda would have to present a significantly more hawkish perspective in the near future, which could negate the impact of the two dovish BoJ members. Without this support, in the face of such a strong Fed, the Japanese currency may struggle with a lasting strengthening.

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Banks

September 18, 2026

Equities: Strong rebound supported by earnings growth – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team reports a strong rebound in global equities, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Stoxx 600 and Kospi all posting solid gains despite a recent Fed hike and further tightening priced. The team argues that robust consensus earnings growth of 35% and rising estimates make a sustained equity sell-off difficult, advocating a barbell strategy favouring global tech over industrials as valuations adjust. AI-led rally and barbell strategy "Equities rebounded strongly on Thursday. The S&P 500 advanced 1.2%, the Nasdaq gained 1.7% in its best session since early August, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.9%, and Kospi is surging a remarkable 2.7% at the time of writing." "We must therefore conclude that a Fed hike (along with the four additional hikes priced over the next 12 months) was not the end of the world for risk assets. The gravitational force on equities remains higher." "Consensus earnings growth of 35% this year, with estimates still trending upward, makes a sustained equity sell-off, or even a pause, increasingly difficult. As earnings compound, valuation multiples contract rapidly, which provides a cushion to higher rates." "As the regional performance reveals, the AI trade was once again the standout. Semiconductor and memory stocks led the advance, but big tech also posted solid gains. Intel, AMD and Micron all rallied between 6-8%." "On the back of the reasoning above, we advocate a barbell strategy: buying global tech with historical earnings growth and undemanding valuations, financed by an underweight position in global industrials, where valuations remain elevated despite significantly weaker earnings." "Notably, industrials were among yesterday's weakest performers despite the broader risk-on backdrop, perhaps signalling that investors are becoming increasingly selective."

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Banks

September 18, 2026

Oil: Prices fall as supply risks reassessed – MUFG

MUFG notes that Oil prices have declined as markets reassess supply risks tied to the US-Iran war and regional chokepoints. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to restore the East-West pipeline and continued tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside diplomatic moves by the US, Gulf nations, China and Iran, have supported a rally in risk assets and global duration. Supply concerns ease with diplomacy "Oil prices fell, risk assets rallied, while global duration did better after enduring a meaningful sell-off over the past few weeks." "Part of this was driven by some easing of oil supply concerns as the markets looked forward the next round of diplomacy that will shape the US-Iran war." "Saudi Arabia in particular has moved to restore the damaged East-West pipeline to its Red Sea coast, aiming to return about half its capacity within days." "At the same time, some tankers continue to traverse the contested Strait of Hormuz." "Reuters also reported that Beijing privately asked Iran to help rein in Houthi militants after an appeal to China by Riyadh, with the militant group making advances in Yemen towards the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint in recent days."

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Banks

September 18, 2026

Euro: Downtrend extends toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang maintains a bearish stance on EUR/USD after recent declines, expecting the pair to trade intraday between 1.1460 and 1.1500 as momentum eases. Over the coming weeks, the Euro (EUR) is seen potentially extending losses toward 1.1435 and 1.1400, with strong resistance at 1.1545 and EMAs signalling further downside. Euro-Dollar bias stays to downside "24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, EUR plunged to a low of 1.1460. Yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1470, we indicated that “while further EUR weakness is not ruled out, deeply oversold conditions suggest any decline could stay within a 1.1435/1.1505 range.” EUR then edged to a low of 1.1450, rebounded to 1.1497 before closing little changed at 1.1474 (+0.09%). Downward momentum has eased somewhat, and today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1460 and 1.1500." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Reiterating our negative view from one week ago, we indicated yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 1.1470) that EUR “could continue to decline to 1.1435, with potential extension to 1.1400.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1545 (no change in level) is not breached. "

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Markets

September 18, 2026

Gold sticks to gains on softer bond yields and subdued USD; hawkish Fed caps upside

Gold attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction. Retreating US bond yields keep USD on the back foot and lend support to the commodity. The hawkish Fed and Middle East woes limit USD losses, capping the upside for the bullion. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it remains below the weekly top through the Asian session on Friday amid mixed cues. US bond yields retreat further from multi-year highs as the recent pullback in crude oil prices helped alleviate immediate fears of runaway inflation. This, in turn, keeps US Dollar (USD) bulls on the back foot and supports the bullion. However, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook acts as a tailwind for the Greenback, which, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the non-yielding yellow metal. The US central bank voted unanimously to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 at the end of the September meeting on Wednesday. Adding to this, the so-called dot plot revealed that Fed officials expect one more interest rate increase this year. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh underscored the importance of stabilizing consumer prices to grow the US economy and said that inflation was too high for too long. Moreover, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support crude oil prices, fueling worries about energy-driven inflation and underpinning prospects for further Fed tightening. UOB flags renewed Dollar upside as Fed hiking cycle widens US rate gap Analysts at UOB Group highlight that the Federal Reserve’s return to a renewed hiking cycle is reshaping the Dollar outlook. They note that, “as we now expect two further Fed rate hikes, the narrowing of US rate differentials relative to G-10 peers – which have been weighing on the DXY since late 2024 – is likely to reverse and underpin the DXY going forward.” Against this backdrop, UOB now sees its previously cautious stance on the Dollar as increasingly challenged. “Putting this together, we now see upside risks to our USD forecasts against both G-10 and Asian currencies,” the bank says. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a 54% chance of another Fed rate hike at the October meeting and the probability of a move in December stands at around 88%. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD, keeping a lid on the Gold price. In the latest development, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it struck a Togo-flagged tanker that attempted an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said that he was approaching a major decision on whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran. This, in turn, favors USD bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the precious metal's recovery from a six-week low, touched on Wednesday. Traders now look forward to Friday's second-tier US macro data – Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the Gold price later during the North American session. Traders will also take cues from further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis to grab short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD pair heading into the weekend. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The XAU/USD pair fails near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,368, which keeps the near-term bias tilted bearish despite staying above key Fibonacci support. The commodity hovers just above the 50.0% retracement at $4,320, which acts as a fragile floor after the recent pullback. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.52 sits near neutrality, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -19.60 remains in negative territory, hinting that downside pressure still prevails. This, in turn, suggests that the Gold price could face initial resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,408, followed by the 100-day EMA at $4,368, with stronger barriers emerging at the 23.6% retracement at $4,516 and the $4,692 swing high. On the downside, immediate support aligns at the 50.0% retracement at $4,320, ahead of deeper Fibonacci levels at $4,232 and $4,107, with the $3,947 zone marking a more distant structural floor should selling extend.

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Energies

September 18, 2026

WTI Oil Price Forecast: Middle East Tensions Keep Bulls in Control as $98.55 Resistance Caps the Rally

WTI crude oil prices are consolidating below the mid-$96 area on Friday after failing to extend the latest rebound from $94.65, but the broader technical structure remains constructive as escalating Middle East tensions keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate is trading around $96.35 per barrel, down roughly 0.20% on the session, while remaining close to its highest level since May 20. The latest developments around the Middle East are keeping crude traders focused on the possibility of further disruption to regional oil flows. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had struck a Togo-flagged tanker that attempted what it described as an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump also said he was approaching a major decision regarding whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran. These developments are preventing the market from fully removing the geopolitical premium from crude oil, even as WTI struggles to break decisively above the $98.55 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level. Technically, WTI remains above important moving-average and Fibonacci support levels, while momentum indicators continue to point toward positive underlying momentum. The immediate question for traders is whether the market can convert the current consolidation into another upside breakout. Why Is WTI Oil Price Consolidating Near $96? WTI has established a significant recovery from the lower levels seen during the previous corrective phase, but the rally has encountered resistance before reaching the psychologically important $100 area. The latest decline to $94.65 created an important short-term test of demand. Buyers subsequently stepped back in, pushing crude back toward $96, but the recovery has not yet produced a decisive break above the mid-$96s. The market is therefore caught between two competing forces. Bullish forces include: Escalating Middle East geopolitical risk. Potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. WTI trading above major technical support. Positive MACD momentum. RSI remaining above the neutral 50 level. The established medium-term uptrend. Bearish or limiting forces include: Failure to sustain gains above $98.55. Profit-taking after the sharp recovery. WTI remaining below the recent $107.11 cycle high. The possibility that geopolitical risk premiums could unwind if tensions ease. The result is a market consolidating beneath resistance rather than one showing a clear technical reversal. Middle East Tensions Keep the Oil Risk Premium Elevated Geopolitical developments remain the dominant fundamental catalyst for crude oil. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because it represents a critical route for global energy shipments. Any sustained disruption to tanker movements through the waterway could potentially tighten physical oil markets and generate another sharp increase in risk premiums. The latest tanker incident involving Iran adds to those concerns. At the same time, Trump's comments regarding a potential decision on further military action against Iran introduce additional uncertainty into the market. For oil traders, the key issue is not simply the military rhetoric itself. The bigger question is whether developments translate into actual disruptions to crude production, exports, refining infrastructure or tanker traffic. That distinction is crucial. Oil prices can rise rapidly on expectations of disruption, but sustained gains generally require a measurable deterioration in physical supply availability. WTI Technical Outlook Remains Constructive Above $91.82 The technical structure continues to favor the bulls while WTI remains above its major Fibonacci and moving-average support levels. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July corrective decline sits at $91.82, providing the first major downside reference. WTI is also trading above the 100-day Simple Moving Average, which is positioned around $85.24. Momentum indicators reinforce the constructive technical picture. The MACD remains in positive territory, suggesting that upward momentum has not yet been completely exhausted. Meanwhile, the RSI is around 61, comfortably above the neutral 50 threshold but not yet at traditionally overbought levels. This leaves room for additional upside momentum if a fresh fundamental catalyst emerges. $98.55 Is the Critical WTI Resistance Level The immediate technical battle is taking place below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $98.55. WTI has so far struggled to establish a sustained move above this level. A decisive break and sustained close above $98.55 would strengthen the technical case for another leg higher and put the recent $107.11 cycle high back into focus. The $100 psychological level would also become an important intermediate target because of its significance to both traders and the physical energy market. However, repeated failures around $98.55 could encourage profit-taking and leave WTI vulnerable to another test of lower support. WTI Support Levels to Watch The first major support remains the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $91.82. A sustained move below that level would weaken the immediate bullish structure and expose the next Fibonacci support around $87.10, representing the 50% retracement. Further below, the 100-day SMA near $85.24 becomes increasingly important. The deeper 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $82.38 represents another downside reference should the correction become more substantial. This creates a clearly defined technical framework: WTI Technical LevelPriceMarket SignificanceRecent Cycle High$107.11Major bullish breakout target78.6% Fibonacci$98.55Immediate resistanceCurrent WTI Price~$96.35Consolidation zone61.8% Fibonacci$91.82First major support50% Fibonacci$87.10Secondary support100-Day SMA~$85.24Major trend support38.2% Fibonacci$82.38Deeper correction level Bullish Sentiment 1. Middle East Geopolitical Risk Continued tension involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. Any evidence of actual disruption to regional supply or shipping could accelerate the upside move. 2. WTI Remains Above Major Technical Support WTI is still comfortably above the $91.82 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day moving average. The broader technical structure therefore remains constructive. 3. Positive MACD Momentum The MACD remains in positive territory, supporting the argument that the recent advance has not yet been technically invalidated. 4. RSI Remains Above Neutral An RSI near 61 indicates positive momentum without reaching traditionally extreme overbought conditions. That leaves room for momentum to strengthen if crude breaks through resistance. 5. $98.55 Break Could Reopen the Path Toward $107 A sustained move above the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $98.55 would represent an important technical development. The next major upside reference would then be the $107.11 cycle high. Bearish Sentiment 1. Failure Below $98.55 The most immediate bearish argument is that WTI has repeatedly struggled to convert the $98.55 level into support. Without a decisive breakout, traders may continue taking profits near resistance. 2. Geopolitical Premium Could Reverse A reduction in Middle East tensions, improved tanker flows or a lower probability of further escalation could remove some of the premium currently incorporated into crude prices. 3. $94.65 Remains a Recent Short-Term Low The recent move toward $94.65 demonstrates that selling pressure remains present beneath the market. A break below that level would increase the probability of a deeper retracement. 4. $91.82 Is the Key Technical Test A sustained move below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $91.82 would weaken the current bullish technical structure. That could expose $87.10 and eventually the $85.24 100-day SMA. The WTI Bull-Bear Battle Is Concentrated Between $91.82 and $98.55 The current market structure provides traders with a relatively clear range to monitor. Above $91.82, the broader recovery remains technically intact. Above $98.55, bullish momentum could accelerate and bring $100 and eventually $107.11 back into focus. Below $91.82, the technical picture becomes considerably less constructive, with $87.10 and $85.24 becoming the next major reference points. This makes the area between $91.82 and $98.55 particularly important for short-term WTI price action. What Traders Are Watching Next WTI traders are likely to focus on five major catalysts: Middle East developments — particularly any changes involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker movements — whether shipping through the region remains disrupted or normalizes. Military escalation risk — whether geopolitical developments produce actual supply interruptions. $98.55 resistance — a sustained break would strengthen the upside technical case. $91.82 support — a break below this level would signal increasing downside pressure. The most important distinction for crude traders will remain whether geopolitical headlines translate into physical supply disruption rather than simply increasing market volatility. Currency Hedger View For international oil buyers, refiners and businesses with USD exposure, movements in WTI are only one component of the overall cost equation. Crude oil is predominantly priced in US dollars, meaning a stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of energy imports even when the underlying WTI price is unchanged. Conversely, businesses exposed to USD revenues may experience a different impact when oil and the dollar move in opposite directions. With WTI currently trading around $96 and geopolitical risk elevated, companies with significant future energy requirements may want to monitor both oil-price exposure and USD currency exposure rather than treating them as separate risks. Currency Hedger, part of the Octalas Group, focuses on FX and hedging solutions designed to help businesses manage currency exposure associated with international payments, imports and cross-border transactions. Today Markets View WTI remains in a constructive technical structure, but the market is approaching a critical resistance zone. The immediate battle is between persistent Middle East geopolitical risk and the inability of crude to establish a sustained move above $98.55. Above $98.55, attention would turn toward the $100 psychological level and the $107.11 cycle high. On the downside, $91.82 is the key level that needs to hold to preserve the current bullish technical structure, followed by $87.10 and the 100-day SMA near $85.24. For now, the market remains caught between geopolitical upside risk and technical resistance, making $98.55 the critical level for the next major WTI move. “WTI remains technically constructive while it holds above $91.82, but the market needs a sustained break above $98.55 to turn the current consolidation into another decisive upside move.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 18, 2026

Nasdaq Surges – After Fed Rate Hike as Falling Oil and Treasury Yields Fuel US Tech Rebound

US technology stocks staged a powerful rebound Thursday despite the Federal Reserve delivering its first interest-rate increase since 2023, with the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.7%, the S&P 500 rising 1.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.6%. At first glance, the move appears counterintuitive. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, while policymakers signaled that further tightening remains possible as inflation remains above target. The decision was unanimous, and the latest projections point to a median federal funds rate of 4.1% at the end of 2026. Normally, higher interest rates and rising Treasury yields create pressure for technology stocks because higher discount rates reduce the present value investors assign to future earnings. Yet the market's reaction has been driven by something more immediate: Oil prices fell sharply, Treasury yields retreated and concerns surrounding the post-Fed bond-market shock eased. Brent crude moved toward $102 per barrel during Thursday's session before recovering toward approximately $105, while the US 10-year Treasury yield fell after briefly moving sharply higher following Wednesday's Fed decision. The result was a significant relief rally across US equities. The market is effectively demonstrating that, for now, the direction of oil and bond yields matters at least as much as the Fed rate decision itself. Why Are US Tech Stocks Rising After a Fed Rate Hike? The answer lies in the interaction between interest rates, Treasury yields and energy prices. The Fed's 25-basis-point increase was broadly anticipated. That meant the rate hike itself was not necessarily a new shock for investors. What mattered more was the guidance surrounding the decision and how financial markets interpreted the consequences. The initial reaction was negative. Treasury yields increased and equities came under pressure as investors absorbed the prospect of further tightening. But on Thursday, the direction changed. Oil prices declined sharply, long-term Treasury yields eased and investors began reversing some of the previous day's defensive positioning. That combination is particularly supportive for growth-oriented technology stocks. The Nasdaq therefore rebounded strongly, gaining 1.7%. The Fed Raised Rates to 3.75%-4.00% The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking its first rate increase since July 2023. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and policymakers emphasized persistent inflation concerns and the strength of the US economy. Reuters reported that the Fed's decision effectively acknowledged that inflation remains a problem and that further tightening could be required. The latest projections are particularly important. The median Fed forecast places the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, while the latest market interpretation continues to allow for additional increases. Sixteen of the 18 Fed policymakers reportedly see at least one further rate increase by the end of this year. So the equity rally does not mean the Fed has suddenly turned dovish. The opposite is closer to the truth. The rally reflects the fact that other market variables moved in a more supportive direction. Treasury Yields Are Becoming More Important Than the Fed Rate For technology investors, the 10-year Treasury yield can be more important than the headline federal funds rate. The Fed directly controls the short-term policy rate. The 10-year Treasury yield is determined by the market and reflects expectations surrounding inflation, economic growth, future monetary policy and demand for government debt. When the 10-year yield rises sharply, the valuation pressure on long-duration technology stocks can become significant. That is exactly what happened following Wednesday's Fed decision. But Thursday brought a reversal. The 10-year yield fell as the bond market recovered, helping remove one of the biggest immediate pressures on the Nasdaq. This is why the equity market was able to rally even though the Fed had just raised rates. Oil Prices Have Become a Major Driver of US Interest-Rate Expectations The other major piece of the puzzle is crude oil. The Middle East conflict has pushed energy prices significantly higher, creating a direct inflation risk for the US economy. Higher oil prices can feed into gasoline, transportation, production and other consumer costs. That can make the Fed's job substantially harder. But Thursday brought relief. Brent crude fell toward $102 per barrel, although prices subsequently recovered toward approximately $105. The decline in crude prices reduced some of the immediate inflation pressure being priced into the bond market. That helped Treasury yields decline. And when Treasury yields decline, high-growth technology stocks can receive a significant valuation boost. The relationship can therefore be summarized as: Lower oil → lower inflation expectations → lower Treasury yields → less valuation pressure on technology stocks. This is one of the key explanations for Thursday's Nasdaq rebound. The Nasdaq Is Particularly Sensitive to Bond Yields Technology stocks are often valued using expectations for earnings and cash flows that extend far into the future. When Treasury yields rise, those future cash flows are discounted at a higher rate. That can put pressure on the valuations of high-growth companies. Conversely, when long-term yields decline, some of that valuation pressure can ease. This explains why the Nasdaq's 1.7% gain was significantly stronger than the Dow's 0.6% rise on Thursday. The market was not simply celebrating higher rates. It was responding to a change in the rate-and-oil environment surrounding the Fed decision. Figure 1: 10-Year US Government Bond Yields (06.2026 - 09.2026) The Market Is Reassessing the Inflation Shock The most important question now is whether the recent oil decline can continue. If crude prices remain elevated because of Middle East supply disruptions, inflation expectations could remain under pressure. That would make the Fed's projected tightening path more important for equity valuations. But if oil prices continue to retreat as Saudi supply routes recover and additional barrels reach the market, some of the inflation premium could disappear. That could allow Treasury yields to stabilize or decline even while the Fed maintains a relatively restrictive policy. This distinction is critical. The stock market does not necessarily need the Fed to cut rates immediately. It needs the bond market to stop repricing rates sharply higher. US Economy Remains Resilient The Fed has another reason for maintaining a relatively firm policy stance: the US economy remains resilient. The latest Fed assessment cited solid economic activity, strong productivity and robust investment, including continued investment associated with artificial intelligence. The labour market has also avoided the type of sharp deterioration that would normally force the central bank toward rapid easing. That creates a potentially important environment for equities. If economic growth remains strong enough to support corporate earnings while inflation gradually moderates, stocks could theoretically absorb higher rates more easily than if monetary tightening were occurring alongside a severe economic contraction. However, this remains dependent on the inflation path. Figure 3: Market-Implied Fed Interest Rate Path (2026 - 2027) AI Investment Remains a Major Nasdaq Driver The technology sector also has a structural catalyst that is independent of short-term monetary policy: artificial-intelligence investment. The Fed has specifically highlighted strong capital investment and AI-related spending as part of the current economic backdrop. That creates an unusual environment. The same AI investment boom that supports technology-sector earnings expectations can also contribute to strong economic activity and therefore complicate the inflation outlook. For investors, this produces two competing effects: Bullish: AI investment supports revenue, capital expenditure and future earnings expectations. Bearish: Strong investment and demand can make it harder for inflation to fall quickly enough to allow rapid monetary easing. The Nasdaq's response will therefore depend on which effect dominates. Trump's Rate-Cut Demands Add Another Market Variable President Donald Trump has continued to call for substantially lower US interest rates. Following Wednesday's Fed decision, Trump said rates should be 1% or lower and called for them to be reduced quickly. At the same time, Trump said he continued to have confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh despite disagreeing with the decision. The disagreement between the White House and the Federal Reserve is relevant to markets because investors care about the credibility and independence of monetary policy. The Fed's unanimous decision and Warsh's defense of the rate increase provided a clear indication that the central bank is currently prioritizing inflation control despite political pressure for lower rates. For markets, the important issue is not the political disagreement itself but whether investors continue to view the Fed as able to set policy based on its economic mandate. Figure 4: US Initial Jobless Claims (2025 - 2027) US Tech Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DevelopmentImpact on US TechNasdaq Composite+1.7%BullishS&P 500+1.1%BullishDow Jones+0.6%BullishFed Rate3.75%-4.00%BearishFed September Hike+25 bpsBearishFed Median 2026 Rate4.1%BearishBrent CrudeFell toward $102, later ~$105Bullish for equities10-Year Treasury YieldFell after initial post-Fed riseBullish for techUS InflationStill elevatedBearishUS EconomyResilientBullishAI InvestmentStrongBullishFurther Fed HikesStill possibleBearishMiddle East Energy RiskElevatedBearish Bullish Sentiment 1. Treasury Yields Have Reversed Lower The sharp easing in Treasury yields following the initial post-Fed reaction reduces immediate valuation pressure on growth and technology stocks. 2. Oil Prices Have Fallen From Recent Extremes Brent's move toward $102 temporarily reduced concerns about an additional energy-driven inflation shock. 3. US Economic Growth Remains Resilient A strong economy can support corporate revenues and earnings even when interest rates are relatively high. 4. AI Investment Remains Strong Continued investment in artificial intelligence and related infrastructure provides a structural growth catalyst for major technology companies. 5. The Fed Decision Was Absorbed Without a Continued Equity Sell-Off After the initial post-decision weakness, investors returned to equities aggressively, producing a 1.7% Nasdaq gain. Bearish Sentiment 1. The Fed Has Begun Tightening Again The move to 3.75%-4.00% represents a clear reversal from the easing expectations that had dominated earlier in the year. 2. Further Rate Increases Remain Possible The Fed's projections indicate that monetary tightening may not be finished, with 16 of 18 policymakers seeing at least one further hike this year. 3. Inflation Remains Too High Warsh has emphasized that inflation remains elevated, providing the central bank with a reason to maintain restrictive policy. 4. Oil Could Reverse Higher Again The recent decline in crude prices may prove temporary if Middle East supply disruptions intensify again. A renewed oil rally could push inflation expectations and Treasury yields higher. Figure 2: Brent and WTI Crude Oil (2026) 5. Technology Valuations Remain Sensitive to Long-Term Yields Any renewed rise in the 10-year Treasury yield could quickly recreate pressure on long-duration technology stocks. The Critical Relationship: Oil, Bonds and Technology Stocks The current market is increasingly defined by a three-way relationship: Oil → Inflation → Treasury yields → Technology valuations If oil rises sharply, inflation expectations can increase. If inflation expectations rise, Treasury yields can move higher. If Treasury yields rise rapidly, technology valuations can come under pressure. The opposite relationship is also possible. A sustained decline in oil could reduce inflation concerns, allowing Treasury yields to stabilize or fall and providing support to technology stocks. This is why the direction of crude oil may currently be almost as important to Nasdaq traders as the next Fed meeting. Middle East Risks Remain the Biggest External Threat The geopolitical situation remains critical. The oil market has already demonstrated how quickly Middle Eastern disruptions can affect energy prices, inflation expectations and Treasury yields. A renewed surge in Brent could therefore create a second-order impact on equities. The concern is not simply that expensive oil increases costs. It could also change expectations for the Fed's policy path. If energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, markets could price a more restrictive monetary-policy environment. Conversely, improving supply conditions could remove some of that pressure. That makes the Middle East an increasingly important macroeconomic variable for Wall Street. What Traders Are Watching Next US equity traders will be monitoring: Brent crude, particularly the $102-$105 area and whether the recent decline continues. US 10-year Treasury yields and whether the post-Fed decline holds. Future Fed rate decisions and evidence of additional tightening. US inflation data and whether energy prices begin feeding through more strongly. Employment data and signs of acceleration or deterioration. AI-related capital expenditure and technology-sector earnings. Middle East energy supply developments. USD movements, particularly as interest-rate expectations change. Nasdaq reaction to Treasury yields, which remains a critical valuation relationship. The immediate question is whether Thursday's rebound represents the beginning of a more durable stabilization or simply a relief rally following the initial Fed shock. Currency Hedger View The interaction between US rates, oil and the dollar is particularly important for international businesses. A higher US interest-rate path can support the dollar by increasing relative US yields, while falling oil prices can reduce inflation pressure and alter expectations for future Fed policy. For companies with USD revenues, USD costs or international technology and energy exposure, this can create significant currency variability even when the underlying business remains unchanged. Currency Hedger, the FX and hedging division of Octalas Group, focuses on helping businesses manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and commercial transactions. The current environment demonstrates why companies exposed to US markets need to consider both interest-rate risk and FX risk, rather than looking at either variable in isolation. Today Markets View The US technology market has delivered a striking response to the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled that additional tightening remains possible. Yet the Nasdaq subsequently surged 1.7%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.1%. The explanation is not that higher interest rates suddenly became bullish for technology stocks. Instead, the market has shifted its focus toward what happens to oil prices and long-term Treasury yields next. Brent's decline toward $102 and the subsequent retreat in Treasury yields relieved some of the inflation and discount-rate pressure that had hit equities immediately after the Fed announcement. The market is therefore sending a very specific signal. The Fed remains hawkish, but falling oil and lower bond yields are currently overpowering the negative impact of higher policy rates on US technology stocks. That creates a delicate setup. If oil continues lower and the 10-year Treasury yield remains contained, the Nasdaq could continue finding support despite a restrictive Fed. If Middle East tensions push crude sharply higher again, however, the relationship could reverse quickly: higher oil → higher inflation expectations → higher Treasury yields → renewed pressure on technology valuations. For now, traders should therefore watch Brent crude and the US 10-year Treasury yield alongside the Nasdaq, rather than interpreting the equity rally as a simple reaction to the Fed decision. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 18, 2026

Trade of The Week – Brent Oil Price Struggles Above $105 as Saudi Pipeline Repairs, Hormuz Transits and Record Supply Cap the Rally

The oil market entered the week with traders expecting a potentially sharp increase in crude prices after a major escalation in Middle Eastern supply risks. Attacks by the Houthis, an Iranian-backed group, targeted more than 70 sites in Saudi Arabia, including the strategically important East-West pipeline, which allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reach international customers through the Red Sea. The attacks caused a halt in production equivalent to approximately 4 million barrels per day, creating an immediate threat to global oil supply. Yet despite the scale of the disruption, the response in the futures market has been relatively restrained. Brent crude briefly climbed above $108 per barrel on Monday, but failed to reclaim the highs reached in May. That raises the central question for oil traders: Why has Brent remained below its previous highs despite a major disruption to Saudi oil infrastructure? The answer lies in the market's assessment of how quickly the damaged infrastructure can be restored, the continued movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and the availability of alternative sources of crude supply. The physical oil market is showing considerably more stress than the futures market, with physical barrels trading at significant premiums as transportation, insurance and logistical costs increase. Futures, meanwhile, are behaving more like a financial asset, with traders balancing geopolitical risk against the possibility that supply disruptions will prove temporary. Why Has Brent Oil Not Rallied More Sharply? The initial reaction to the attacks was straightforward. A major Saudi pipeline was disrupted, production was halted and tanker traffic through two critical Middle Eastern routes came under pressure. Under normal circumstances, such a disruption would be expected to generate a substantial crude-price premium. Instead, Brent's rally has so far stalled around $108 per barrel. Several factors explain the relatively limited upside. The first is the expected speed of repairs to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. The second is evidence that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not completely stopped. The third is the availability of alternative crude supplies from outside the immediate region. The fourth is record US oil production, which provides an additional source of global supply. Together, these factors have prevented traders from pricing the disruption as a prolonged loss of millions of barrels per day. Saudi Arabia Plans to Restore East-West Pipeline Capacity The East-West pipeline is strategically important because it provides Saudi Arabia with a route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks therefore created two separate concerns. First, Saudi production was disrupted. Second, the country's ability to move crude around the Strait of Hormuz was compromised. American officials reportedly assessed the pipeline damage as relatively straightforward to repair, while Saudi Arabia has indicated that the pipeline should begin operating at approximately 50% capacity in the coming days. That expectation has significantly altered the market's assessment of the disruption. If half of the affected capacity returns quickly, traders have less reason to price the full production interruption as a long-lasting global supply deficit. The speed of the repair process is therefore one of the most important variables for Brent prices. Strait of Hormuz Traffic Has Not Completely Stopped The second major factor limiting Brent's upside is tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation remains precarious, with tankers having been attacked and the security environment remaining highly uncertain. However, tankers are still reportedly making "dark transits", whereby vessels turn off their transmitters while navigating the region. Some reports suggest that this could restore as much as 70% of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic. If accurate, that dramatically changes the supply implications of the disruption. The market does not require completely normal traffic to avoid a total supply shock. Even partial restoration can materially increase the volume of crude and petroleum products reaching international buyers. For Brent traders, the key question is therefore not simply whether the Strait is safe. It is how much oil is still moving through it. Alternative Oil Supplies Are Limiting the Supply Shock The global oil market is not dependent exclusively on Saudi Arabia. Crude is continuing to enter the global system from alternative sources. A notable example is Venezuela, where a record amount of oil is reportedly flowing into the US. Meanwhile, US oil production itself is running at a record-high pace. That additional supply provides some protection against the loss of Middle Eastern barrels. It does not completely eliminate the geopolitical risk premium. But it means traders have to assess the net global supply loss, rather than simply the volume temporarily removed from Saudi production. This is one of the reasons the futures market has been more restrained than the physical market. Physical Oil Prices Are Showing More Stress The relatively contained move in Brent futures should not be interpreted as evidence that the physical oil market is unaffected. Physical crude prices are trading at significant premiums. The physical market must account for the rapidly rising costs associated with: Tanker transportation Insurance Security Longer shipping routes Supply-chain disruption Availability of specific crude grades These additional costs can remain elevated even when futures prices are comparatively stable. This creates an important divergence. Physical oil can remain tight and expensive while futures prices struggle to extend their rally. That difference is particularly important for refiners, physical traders and companies that actually need to source barrels rather than simply trade oil futures. Futures Traders Are Treating Oil More Like a Financial Asset The futures market is currently focused on probability rather than simply physical scarcity. Traders are weighing the severity of the Saudi attacks against the likelihood that infrastructure will be repaired quickly. They are also assessing whether tanker traffic can continue through the Strait of Hormuz, whether alternative supplies can compensate for disrupted barrels and whether US production can continue providing additional crude. This explains why Brent has struggled to move decisively beyond $108 per barrel. The market is effectively asking whether the disruption represents a temporary logistical shock or the beginning of a much larger and longer-lasting supply crisis. So far, futures pricing is reflecting considerable uncertainty rather than assuming the worst-case scenario. Oil Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest SituationImpact on BrentBrent Monday HighAbove $108/barrelKey resistanceSaudi Production Disruption~4M bpd equivalentBullishSaudi East-West PipelineDamagedBullishPlanned Pipeline Capacity~50% in coming daysBearish/reliefStrait of HormuzTanker traffic disrupted but continuingMixedDark TransitsPotentially restoring up to 70% of trafficBearish/reliefSaudi Crude DeliveriesSome European deliveries cancelledBullishVenezuelan Oil to USRecord flowsBearishUS Oil ProductionRecord-high paceBearishPhysical Oil PremiumsSignificantBullishTanker & Insurance CostsElevatedBullishBrent Initial Support$105TechnicalBrent Secondary Support$103.10TechnicalPsychological Support$100TechnicalStronger Support$95-$96TechnicalKey Resistance$108Technical Bullish Sentiment 1. Saudi Production Has Been Disrupted The attacks caused a production interruption equivalent to approximately 4 million barrels per day. If the disruption lasts longer than currently expected, global supply concerns could intensify. 2. East-West Pipeline Damage Creates a Strategic Supply Risk The pipeline provides Saudi Arabia with a route around the Strait of Hormuz. Any prolonged reduction in its capacity increases the market's dependence on the already-sensitive maritime route. 3. Strait of Hormuz Remains Precarious Even though tankers continue to move, attacks and security concerns mean the risk of further disruption remains high. A significant reduction in traffic could rapidly increase the global crude risk premium. 4. Physical Oil Markets Are Tight Physical barrels are trading at substantial premiums as transportation and insurance costs rise. This indicates that the disruption is having a more pronounced effect on the physical market than the headline futures price suggests. 5. Geopolitical Risk Can Escalate Quickly Oil is currently being driven primarily by geopolitics rather than technical setups. Another major attack on infrastructure, tankers or export facilities could rapidly change market expectations. Bearish Sentiment 1. Saudi Arabia Expects Partial Pipeline Restoration The expected return of approximately 50% of East-West pipeline capacity in the coming days reduces the probability that the full disruption will persist. 2. Tankers Are Still Moving Through Hormuz Dark transits could potentially restore as much as 70% of Strait of Hormuz traffic, according to reports. Even partial traffic would significantly reduce the potential global supply shortfall. 3. Alternative Sources Are Supplying the Market Record Venezuelan oil flows into the US demonstrate that crude can be sourced from outside the immediate Middle Eastern disruption. 4. US Oil Production Is at Record Levels High US production provides another source of crude supply and limits the extent to which the global market must depend on disrupted Middle Eastern barrels. 5. Brent Has Failed to Break Its Previous Highs Despite briefly moving above $108, Brent has not returned to its May highs. That suggests traders remain cautious about pricing a prolonged supply shock into futures contracts. Technical Levels: $108 Resistance, $103.10 Key Support Although geopolitics is dominating oil markets, several technical levels remain important. Resistance: $108 per barrel The Monday high above $108 is currently the most important upside reference point. A sustained move above this area would indicate that traders are placing a larger premium on the possibility of prolonged supply disruption. Initial Support: $105 The first level to watch on a pullback is around $105 per barrel. A break below this level would indicate that some of the immediate geopolitical premium is being removed. Key Support: $103.10 The next important level is $103.10. A decisive move below this area would bring the $100 psychological level back into focus. Psychological Support: $100 A move toward $100 would represent an important shift in sentiment because the market would be giving back a substantial portion of the geopolitical premium generated by the recent attacks. Major Support: $95-$96 Chart 1: Brent crude oil Source: XTB. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The $95-$96 area corresponds with the 20-day simple moving average, providing a more substantial technical reference point. However, technical levels should currently be treated as secondary indicators. Geopolitics remains the primary driver of crude prices. The Critical Battle: Supply Disruption Versus Repair Speed The next major move in oil will depend heavily on how quickly traders can determine whether the Saudi disruption is temporary or prolonged. If the East-West pipeline returns to 50% capacity as expected, while tanker traffic through Hormuz remains operational and alternative crude supplies remain available, the market could continue struggling to move significantly above $108. But if repairs are delayed, tanker traffic deteriorates further or new attacks occur, the supply-risk premium could increase sharply. That is why oil remains particularly difficult to trade using technical indicators alone. The fundamental picture can change in hours. What Traders Are Watching Next Oil traders will be monitoring: East-West pipeline repairs and the timing of the expected 50% capacity restoration. Saudi oil production levels following the disruption. Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic and the continuation of dark transits. Further attacks on Saudi infrastructure or tankers. Saudi crude deliveries to Europe and other customers. Venezuelan crude exports and US imports. US oil production, which remains at record levels. Physical crude premiums and regional price differentials. Tanker insurance and freight costs. Brent's $108 resistance level. $105 and $103.10 support, followed by $100 and the $95-$96 20-day SMA. Any change in geopolitical risk that could alter the current supply assumptions. Currency Hedger View The oil market's geopolitical volatility also creates significant foreign-exchange exposure for international energy businesses. Crude oil is predominantly priced in US dollars, meaning companies purchasing or selling oil in dollars can experience a second layer of volatility through currency movements. For an importer, a sharp rise in oil prices combined with a weaker domestic currency can substantially increase the effective cost of energy. Conversely, exporters receiving US-dollar revenues can have different FX exposure depending on their operating and reporting currencies. Currency Hedger, the FX and hedging division of Octalas Group, focuses on helping businesses manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and international commercial transactions. For businesses exposed to oil, separating commodity risk from currency risk can provide a clearer picture of total financial exposure during periods of extreme market volatility. Today Markets View Oil markets are facing one of their most complicated geopolitical setups in recent months. The attacks on Saudi Arabia and the East-West pipeline created a disruption equivalent to approximately 4 million barrels per day, while risks around the Strait of Hormuz have added another layer of uncertainty. Yet Brent has so far remained relatively restrained, with Monday's high above $108 per barrel failing to return the market to its May highs. The explanation is largely based on supply expectations. Saudi Arabia expects to restore around 50% of East-West pipeline capacity, tankers are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, alternative sources such as Venezuelan crude are supplying the market, and US oil production remains at record levels. At the same time, physical oil markets remain significantly tighter, with higher tanker, insurance and logistical costs creating substantial premiums. The futures market is therefore balancing two competing possibilities: a temporary supply disruption that can be repaired and supplemented by alternative sources, versus a prolonged geopolitical escalation that could remove substantially more crude from global markets. Technically, $108 remains the key resistance level, while $105 and $103.10 provide initial downside levels. A break below $103.10 would put $100 back into focus, while the $95-$96 region around the 20-day SMA represents a more substantial technical support zone. For now, however, oil traders should treat technical levels as secondary to geopolitics. The oil market can change direction rapidly if the physical supply situation changes, making disciplined risk management and caution particularly important while the Middle East remains the dominant price driver. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 18, 2026

US Heating Oil Prices Fall From Record $5.26 as Inventories Rise but Tight Supplies and Middle East Risks Persist

US heating oil prices eased to around $5.05 per gallon, retreating from a record high of $5.26 reached earlier this week as rising distillate inventories and potential alternative routes for Middle Eastern crude offered some relief to an exceptionally tight market. The pullback remains limited, however, with US distillate inventories still 13% below their five-year average and geopolitical risks continuing to threaten crude and refined-product supply. The latest EIA data showed US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended September 11. While the inventory build provided some bearish pressure, stockpiles remain historically low heading into the winter heating season. At the same time, Saudi Arabia was reportedly working to restore around half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days after drone attacks disrupted the key route to the Red Sea, while additional crude cargoes were reportedly being offered to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port. The market therefore remains caught between improving inventories and potential supply rerouting on the bearish side, and low distillate stocks, winter demand and renewed Middle East attacks on the bullish side. Why Are US Heating Oil Prices Falling Today? The decline in heating oil prices reflects signs that the immediate supply shock may be easing. Prices had surged to a record $5.26 per gallon earlier this week as disruptions to Middle Eastern crude logistics raised concerns about the availability of feedstock for refineries and refined products. The subsequent decline toward $5.05 followed evidence that additional barrels could reach the market through alternative transportation routes. Saudi Arabia's reported efforts to restore part of the East-West pipeline and arrange additional crude shipments by sea provide potential relief for refiners concerned about feedstock availability. At the same time, US distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. That combination has reduced some of the immediate scarcity premium in heating oil. However, the market remains structurally tight. US Distillate Inventories Remain Well Below Average The most important fundamental statistic remains the level of US distillate inventories. According to the latest EIA data, inventories of diesel, heating oil and other distillates rose by 1.6 million barrels during the week ended September 11. That is a bearish development in isolation because additional inventories mean more available supply. But total stocks remain 13% below their five-year average. This distinction is crucial. The market is not simply asking whether inventories increased this week. Traders are assessing whether inventories are sufficient heading into a period when heating demand can rise substantially. At current levels, the answer remains uncertain. The inventory deficit means the US enters the colder months with less of a supply cushion than normal. Winter Heating Demand Could Tighten the Market Further The timing of the current supply situation is particularly important. Winter is approaching, and heating oil demand can increase significantly as temperatures decline across the US Northeast and other regions that rely on distillate fuels for heating. If consumption accelerates while inventories remain well below their five-year average, the market could face renewed pressure. The current inventory build therefore provides only partial relief. A series of larger inventory increases would be needed to materially improve the supply cushion before winter demand intensifies. Otherwise, heating oil could remain highly sensitive to refinery outages, crude supply disruptions and changes in weather forecasts. Saudi Arabia Seeks Alternative Routes for Crude Supply The Middle East remains central to the heating oil outlook because crude availability directly affects refinery feedstock. Saudi Arabia was reportedly seeking to restore approximately half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days after drone attacks halted the key link to the Red Sea. The pipeline is strategically important because it provides an alternative route for moving Saudi crude toward export markets. Saudi Arabia was also reportedly offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port. If these alternative routes successfully increase the flow of crude to refiners, some of the immediate supply pressure could ease. That is one reason heating oil prices have retreated from their record high. Middle East Supply Risks Have Not Disappeared Despite the potential for alternative crude routes, geopolitical risk remains elevated. Fresh strikes were reported between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces, keeping the possibility of further disruption in the region firmly on the market's radar. For energy markets, the issue is not simply whether one pipeline can be restored. Traders must also consider whether infrastructure, shipping routes, ports and refinery supply chains remain exposed to additional attacks. Any renewed disruption could quickly reverse the recent decline in heating oil prices. Refinery Maintenance Could Become a Major Winter Risk Refinery maintenance represents another potential source of pressure. Refineries convert crude oil into products such as diesel and heating oil. When maintenance reduces refinery utilization, the supply of finished distillates can decline even if crude inventories remain adequate. That creates a particular problem when distillate stocks are already 13% below the five-year average. If maintenance coincides with stronger winter demand, inventories could draw down rapidly. This is one of the key reasons the heating oil market remains vulnerable to further price spikes despite the recent retreat. Heating Oil Is Facing a Tight Supply Cushion The current market can be summarized through three competing forces. First, inventories are increasing. The latest EIA data showed a 1.6 million-barrel build, providing some immediate relief. Second, inventories remain historically low. Stocks are still 13% below their five-year average, leaving the market with a relatively thin cushion. Third, geopolitical and refinery risks remain elevated. Potential restoration of Saudi pipeline capacity could improve supply, but additional attacks or refinery maintenance could quickly reverse those gains. The result is a market where short-term prices have eased without necessarily eliminating the underlying supply risk. Heating Oil Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactUS Heating Oil Price~$5.05/galElevatedRecent Record$5.26/galMajor resistance/reference levelDistillate Inventory Change+1.6 million barrelsBearishDistillate Stocks vs 5-Year Average-13%BullishWinterApproachingPotentially bullish demandSaudi East-West PipelinePartial restoration targetedPotentially bearishAlternative Saudi Crude ShipmentsShip-to-ship transfers off SoharPotentially bearishSaudi-Houthi StrikesFresh attacks reportedBullish riskRefinery MaintenanceApproaching/ongoing riskBullishOverall Supply CushionHistorically tightBullish Bullish Sentiment 1. Distillate Inventories Remain 13% Below Average The most important bullish fundamental is the size of the inventory deficit. Even after the latest 1.6 million-barrel increase, US distillate stocks remain 13% below their five-year average. That leaves less protection against unexpected demand or supply disruptions. 2. Winter Demand Could Accelerate The approaching heating season could increase demand for heating oil and other distillate products. If colder-than-expected weather develops, inventory withdrawals could accelerate. 3. Refinery Maintenance Could Restrict Product Supply Maintenance can temporarily reduce refinery output at precisely the wrong time for a market already carrying below-average inventories. Reduced production could put renewed upward pressure on heating oil prices. 4. Middle East Infrastructure Remains Vulnerable Fresh strikes involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces mean the possibility of further disruption remains. Another attack on oil infrastructure or shipping could quickly increase the risk premium. 5. The Record High Demonstrates Extreme Market Sensitivity Heating oil already reached $5.26 per gallon earlier this week. The rapid move demonstrates how aggressively the market can respond when traders perceive a threat to distillate or crude supply. Bearish Sentiment 1. Inventories Increased by 1.6 Million Barrels The latest EIA report showed a sizeable inventory increase, indicating that additional distillate supply is reaching the US market. Further builds would reduce concerns about winter shortages. 2. Saudi Arabia Is Seeking to Restore Pipeline Capacity Restoring approximately half the East-West pipeline capacity could provide an important alternative route for moving crude and reduce some of the current supply disruption. 3. Additional Crude Could Reach Asian Refiners by Sea Ship-to-ship transfers near Oman's Sohar port provide another potential supply channel. More barrels reaching refiners could reduce competition for available crude. 4. Prices Have Already Fallen From the Record The move from $5.26 to around $5.05 indicates that part of the geopolitical supply premium has already been removed. If infrastructure recovery progresses smoothly, further price normalization could follow. 5. Demand Is Not Guaranteed to Surge Although winter is approaching, actual distillate consumption will depend heavily on temperatures. A relatively mild winter could reduce heating demand and allow inventories to recover. The Critical Question: Can Inventories Rebuild Before Winter? The next phase of the heating oil market will depend heavily on whether US inventories can continue increasing before winter demand accelerates. The latest 1.6 million-barrel build is encouraging from a supply perspective. But with stocks still 13% below the five-year average, the market needs considerably more inventory accumulation to establish a comfortable cushion. That creates a narrow window. If inventories continue building while Saudi Arabia restores disrupted crude logistics, heating oil could continue retreating from its record. If inventory growth stalls, however, the market could remain highly exposed to any combination of colder weather, refinery maintenance or renewed Middle East disruption. What Traders Are Watching Next Heating oil traders will be closely monitoring: Weekly EIA distillate inventories and whether the recent build continues. US heating oil and diesel demand as temperatures decline. Weather forecasts for the US Northeast and other heating-oil-consuming regions. Saudi East-West pipeline restoration and actual throughput. Middle East attacks and infrastructure risks. Crude shipments through alternative routes, including ship-to-ship transfers. Refinery utilization and maintenance schedules. Global diesel and distillate cracks, which indicate refinery economics and product tightness. Winter demand expectations and the pace of inventory rebuilding. The most important signal will be whether inventories can recover meaningfully before cold-weather demand arrives. Currency Hedger View Heating oil and refined energy products are heavily influenced by US dollar-denominated crude and product prices. For international energy companies, fuel distributors, industrial businesses and commercial users, this creates two separate exposures: the underlying commodity price and the currency used to purchase or sell it. A company purchasing heating oil or related energy products in US dollars may face a higher effective cost if its domestic currency weakens against the dollar, even when the underlying heating oil price is unchanged. Currency Hedger, the FX and hedging division of Octalas Group, focuses on helping businesses manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and commercial transactions. For businesses exposed to energy markets, separating commodity-price exposure from FX exposure can help provide a clearer picture of total financial risk. Today Markets View US heating oil prices have retreated to around $5.05 per gallon after reaching a record $5.26, with the latest decline reflecting improving inventory levels and the possibility that Saudi Arabia can restore alternative crude transportation routes. However, the market remains fundamentally vulnerable. US distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels, but stocks are still 13% below the five-year average. That means the inventory cushion remains considerably weaker than normal as winter approaches. At the same time, Saudi efforts to restore pipeline capacity and move additional crude by sea could ease some of the immediate supply pressure. The effectiveness and speed of those measures will be important for prices. The bullish and bearish forces are therefore clearly divided. Rising inventories, alternative crude routes and potential infrastructure restoration are bearish for heating oil, while low distillate stocks, winter demand, refinery maintenance and renewed Middle East attacks remain significant bullish risks. The next major test will be whether US distillate inventories can continue rebuilding before winter demand strengthens. If stocks recover steadily and Middle Eastern supply routes normalize, heating oil could continue to retreat from its record. If inventory growth stalls or another disruption occurs, the market could once again become extremely sensitive to supply shortages. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 18, 2026

US Natural Gas Futures Fall Over 1% to $2.85 as Cooler Weather Forecasts and Record Production Pressure 2026 Prices

US natural gas futures fell more than 1% on Friday to around $2.85/MMBtu, reversing the previous session’s gains as cooler weather forecasts reduced expectations for late-September cooling demand. The latest forecasts show above-average temperatures covering a smaller portion of the South and Southeast from September 22 through October 1, potentially reducing natural gas demand from power generators for air conditioning. The bearish weather outlook comes despite a tighter-than-expected weekly storage build and continued concerns about the US inventory surplus. The market remains caught between strong production and softer weather-driven demand on the bearish side, while tighter storage fundamentals and LNG export demand provide important bullish counterweights. Lower 48 production averaged 113.1 bcfd in September, above August's record monthly average of 112.2 bcfd, while average flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities were expected to fall to a three-week low of 17.5 bcfd, largely because of maintenance at Cameron LNG in Louisiana. Why Are US Natural Gas Prices Falling Today? The immediate catalyst behind Friday's decline is a shift in the weather outlook. Natural gas demand typically rises during periods of extreme summer heat because gas-fired power plants supply electricity for air conditioning. The latest forecasts, however, indicate that above-normal temperatures will cover a smaller area of the South and Southeast between September 22 and October 1. That potentially reduces electricity-sector gas consumption at a time when the market is already dealing with exceptionally strong production. The combination creates a familiar pressure point for natural gas: More production + less weather-driven demand = greater potential for injections into storage and weaker prices. However, the market is not facing an entirely bearish fundamental picture. Thursday's rally demonstrated that traders remain sensitive to storage data, with the latest EIA report showing a smaller-than-average inventory build. Natural Gas Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactUS Natural Gas Price$2.85/MMBtuBearishFriday MoveMore than -1%BearishWeatherCooler forecasts from Sep. 22-Oct. 1BearishStorage Surplus vs 5-Year Average118 BcfBearish, but narrowingPrevious Storage Surplus148 BcfImprovement in fundamentalsSeptember Lower 48 Production113.1 bcfdBearishAugust Production112.2 bcfdRecord monthly averageMajor LNG Export Facility Flows17.5 bcfd expectedBearish near termLNG Flow ChangeThree-week lowBearishCameron LNGMaintenanceBearish for feedgas demand US Natural Gas Storage Surplus Is Narrowing One of the most important bullish signals underneath the market is the recent improvement in the US storage balance. The EIA reported a below-average storage build for the week ended September 11, causing the inventory surplus relative to the five-year average to narrow to 118 Bcf from 148 Bcf one week earlier. That represents a meaningful reduction in the surplus. The smaller storage build indicates that gas consumption was stronger than expected, with late-season heat increasing demand from the power sector. This is why Thursday's natural gas rally was significant. Even though US production remains extremely high, demand was strong enough to produce a tighter-than-normal weekly storage injection. The problem for bulls is that the weather forecast has now become less supportive. If cooler conditions reduce power-sector demand while production remains around record levels, future storage injections could begin to look less constructive. Record US Natural Gas Production Remains a Major Bearish Factor Production is arguably the biggest structural bearish factor facing the natural gas market. Lower 48 production averaged 113.1 bcfd during September, exceeding August's record monthly average of 112.2 bcfd. That means the market is entering the end of the summer cooling season with exceptionally high supply. The significance is straightforward. If production continues to exceed demand growth, more gas can flow into underground storage. That could prevent the recent narrowing of the storage surplus from continuing. For natural gas bulls, the key question is therefore whether demand can absorb this additional production. So far, LNG exports and power-sector consumption have provided important outlets for US gas. But both are currently facing potential near-term limitations. Cooler Weather Could Reduce Power-Sector Natural Gas Demand Weather remains one of the most important short-term drivers of US natural gas prices. The latest forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures will cover a smaller area of the South and Southeast from September 22 through October 1. That matters because these regions can generate substantial natural gas demand from electricity producers during periods of intense air-conditioning use. As temperatures moderate, electricity demand for cooling can decline. Gas-fired power generation may therefore require less fuel. This creates a potentially bearish combination with record production. If the weather turns cooler faster than expected, the market could lose one of its most important late-season demand supports just as supply remains elevated. LNG Export Demand Faces a Temporary Headwind US LNG exports have become one of the most important sources of structural natural gas demand. However, average flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities were expected to fall to 17.5 bcfd, their lowest level in approximately three weeks. The decline was primarily attributed to maintenance at Cameron LNG in Louisiana. Lower LNG feedgas demand means more natural gas remains available within the domestic US market. That can place additional pressure on prices, particularly when domestic production is already running at record levels. The maintenance issue is important, however, because it does not necessarily represent a permanent deterioration in LNG demand. Once maintenance is completed, feedgas flows could recover. Storage, Production and LNG Demand Are Pulling the Market in Different Directions The current natural gas market is being driven by several competing forces. On one side, the storage data has improved. The surplus against the five-year average has narrowed from 148 Bcf to 118 Bcf, suggesting the market has become tighter relative to historical norms. On the other side, production has reached new highs. At 113.1 bcfd, September output is running above the previous record monthly average. Meanwhile, LNG feedgas demand is temporarily weaker because of maintenance, while cooler weather threatens to reduce power-sector consumption. The result is a market where the fundamental picture cannot be reduced to a single indicator. Storage is improving, but supply remains abundant. Demand has been strong enough to tighten the surplus, but weather forecasts are becoming less supportive. LNG exports remain structurally important, but current flows are temporarily weaker. Bullish Sentiment 1. Storage Surplus Is Narrowing The storage surplus has declined to 118 Bcf from 148 Bcf, demonstrating that recent demand has been strong enough to tighten the market relative to the five-year average. 2. Below-Average Storage Build The EIA's latest below-average injection provided evidence that late-season demand remains capable of absorbing significant volumes of natural gas. 3. Power-Sector Demand Could Remain Resilient Although the latest forecasts are cooler, temperatures across parts of the South and Southeast remain important. Any renewed heat could quickly increase air-conditioning demand and gas-fired power generation. 4. LNG Exports Remain a Structural Demand Driver US LNG exports continue to represent a major source of natural gas demand. The current reduction in feedgas flows is linked largely to maintenance, meaning demand could recover when facilities return to normal operations. 5. Weather Forecasts Can Change Quickly Natural gas remains highly sensitive to changes in weather models. A renewed period of hotter temperatures could quickly reverse some of the current bearish pressure. Bearish Sentiment 1. US Production Is at Record Levels September Lower 48 production is averaging 113.1 bcfd, above August's record 112.2 bcfd. This provides the market with substantial supply and increases the risk of larger future storage injections. 2. Cooler Weather Reduces Cooling Demand The latest forecasts show a smaller area of above-average temperatures between September 22 and October 1, potentially reducing gas demand from power generators. 3. LNG Feedgas Flows Are Falling Flows to major US LNG export facilities are expected to decline to 17.5 bcfd, a three-week low. Until maintenance-related disruptions ease, that leaves more gas available for the domestic market. 4. The Storage Surplus Still Exists Although the surplus has narrowed, inventories remain 118 Bcf above the five-year average. That means the market has not eliminated the excess supply accumulated relative to historical norms. 5. Strong Production Could Overwhelm Demand The most important bearish risk is that production continues rising while both weather-related demand and LNG feedgas demand soften. That combination could cause the storage surplus to widen again. The Key Battle: Record Supply Versus Tightening Storage The central question for natural gas traders is whether the recent improvement in storage fundamentals can continue. A 30 Bcf reduction in the storage surplus is constructive. But it occurred during a period when late-season heat supported power demand. If cooler weather reduces consumption while production remains above 113 bcfd, the market could quickly lose some of that improvement. This makes upcoming EIA storage reports particularly important. Traders will be watching whether injections remain below historical averages or begin to accelerate as temperatures moderate. What Traders Are Watching Next Natural gas traders will be monitoring several key variables: US weather forecasts for late September and early October. EIA weekly storage injections and changes in the 118 Bcf surplus. Lower 48 production, particularly whether output remains above 113 bcfd. LNG feedgas flows as Cameron LNG maintenance progresses. Power-sector gas demand as cooling requirements decline. Hurricane and extreme-weather developments that could disrupt production or demand. Forward natural gas prices as traders assess winter storage requirements. The biggest potential market catalyst remains the interaction between weather and production. Currency Hedger View For international energy companies, LNG businesses, commodity traders and industrial consumers, the natural gas price is only one component of total financial exposure. Natural gas is primarily priced in US dollars, meaning companies operating with revenues or costs in euros, pounds, UAE dirhams or other currencies can face an additional FX risk when natural gas prices move. A fall in US natural gas prices may therefore have a different financial impact depending on the company's underlying currency exposure. Currency Hedger, the FX and hedging division of Octalas Group, focuses on helping businesses manage currency exposure associated with international payments, receipts and commercial transactions. For companies exposed to energy markets, separating the commodity-price risk from the currency risk can provide a clearer view of overall financial exposure. Today Markets View US natural gas futures are under pressure as cooler weather forecasts threaten to reduce power-sector demand just as production remains at record levels. The move to around $2.85/MMBtu reflects the market's concern that supply could once again outpace demand as the summer cooling season fades. However, the bearish picture is not complete. The EIA's latest report showed a below-average storage build, while the surplus against the five-year average narrowed significantly from 148 Bcf to 118 Bcf. LNG exports also remain a major structural source of US gas demand, even though Cameron LNG maintenance is temporarily reducing feedgas flows. The market therefore faces a clear fundamental conflict. Record production, cooler weather and weaker LNG flows are bearish, while tightening storage balances, resilient power demand and the potential recovery in LNG exports provide bullish counterweights. For traders, the next major signal will come from whether storage injections remain below historical norms as temperatures moderate. If production stays above 113 bcfd while demand weakens, the pressure on natural gas prices could intensify. Conversely, renewed heat, stronger LNG flows or another series of below-average storage builds could provide support. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 18, 2026

Copper Futures Hold Above $6.55 as China Demand Surges, Mine Disruptions Tighten Supply and LME Inventories Rise

Copper futures held above $6.55 per pound on Friday, extending a three-session winning streak as stronger signals from China helped offset concerns about rising exchange inventories and ample near-term availability. The latest move higher has been driven by a combination of stronger Chinese physical demand, long-term consumption expectations from data centers and renewable-energy infrastructure, and supply disruptions at several major copper mines. A key indicator of Chinese copper demand has strengthened significantly. The Yangshan copper premium climbed to $121 per ton on Thursday, its highest level since November 2022. The premium is closely watched by the market because it reflects the willingness of Chinese buyers to pay above international benchmark prices for imported copper. However, the rally remains complicated by increasing inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses. Fresh copper deliveries pushed LME inflows to their highest level in almost four weeks, helping drive the London market into contango, a structure that indicates greater near-term availability. Copper therefore remains caught between stronger Chinese demand and longer-term electrification demand on one side, and improving short-term physical availability on the other. Copper Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactCopper FuturesAbove $6.55/lbBullishRecent Price Trend3 consecutive sessions higherBullishYangshan Premium$121/tonBullishYangshan Premium HighHighest since Nov. 2022BullishChina DemandStrengtheningBullishData Center DemandLong-term growth expectedBullishRenewable Energy DemandLong-term growth expectedBullishMajor Mine DisruptionsOngoing supply concernBullishLME Warehouse DeliveriesHighest inflows in nearly 4 weeksBearishLME Market StructureContangoBearishNear-Term AvailabilityIncreasingBearishUS Refined Copper Tariff DecisionPostponedUncertain Why Are Copper Futures Rising Today? The immediate catalyst is stronger evidence of physical demand from China. China is the world's dominant copper-consuming economy, meaning changes in Chinese import demand can have a significant impact on global copper prices. The strongest signal currently comes from the Yangshan premium. The premium rose to $121 per ton, its highest level since November 2022. A rising Yangshan premium generally indicates that Chinese buyers are willing to pay more to secure imported copper. That provides a stronger physical-market signal than futures prices alone. The latest increase therefore suggests that Chinese demand is improving despite the recent volatility in copper futures. For traders, the critical question is whether this increase represents a temporary improvement in buying interest or the beginning of a more sustained acceleration in Chinese copper demand. China's Copper Demand Is Becoming a Major Bullish Catalyst The increase in the Yangshan premium is particularly important because copper demand has faced questions surrounding China's economic growth and industrial activity. A sustained increase in the premium would indicate that physical buyers are becoming more aggressive in securing copper. That could tighten the international market if stronger Chinese imports begin absorbing available inventories. Copper is particularly sensitive to changes in Chinese demand because of its extensive use in: Construction Manufacturing Power infrastructure Electrical equipment Electric vehicles Renewable-energy systems Data centers Grid expansion Consequently, stronger Chinese physical demand can quickly alter the balance between available supply and consumption. Data Centers Are Creating a Structural Copper Demand Story Copper's bullish long-term case extends beyond China. Data-center construction is becoming an increasingly important source of copper demand because modern data centers require substantial quantities of electrical infrastructure, power distribution equipment, cooling systems and grid connections. The expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure has strengthened expectations for continued investment in data centers. This creates a potentially durable source of copper consumption rather than a short-lived commodity-cycle demand boost. For copper traders, the implication is that demand growth could remain structurally strong even if some traditional industrial sectors experience periodic weakness. Renewable Energy Is Supporting Long-Term Copper Demand Renewable-energy investment is another major structural demand driver. Solar installations, wind projects, electricity transmission infrastructure, energy storage systems and grid upgrades all require substantial electrical infrastructure. Copper's electrical conductivity makes it an important material throughout these systems. The global transition toward greater electrification therefore provides a long-term demand foundation for copper. This is one reason the market continues to monitor copper not only through the traditional industrial cycle but also through the longer-term themes of electrification, renewable energy and artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Major Mine Disruptions Are Tightening the Supply Outlook Copper is also receiving support from supply-side disruptions at several major mines. Mining disruptions can have an outsized impact on copper prices because new mine supply takes years to develop. When existing production is interrupted, the market has limited ability to immediately replace lost output. This creates a potentially bullish environment if strong Chinese demand coincides with reduced mine production. The combination of higher demand and disrupted supply is one of the strongest fundamental arguments supporting copper prices at current levels. Rising LME Inventories Are Limiting the Rally The main bearish counterweight is the increase in LME warehouse deliveries. Warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange recorded fresh copper inflows, with deliveries reaching their highest level in nearly four weeks. The increase in warehouse stocks indicates that additional physical metal is becoming available to the market. That is important because a sustained rally in copper generally becomes more difficult to maintain when exchange inventories are increasing rapidly. Higher inventories can signal that supply is sufficient to meet immediate demand, particularly if the increase continues. Copper Moves Into Contango The increase in LME inventories has also pushed London copper into contango. Contango occurs when futures prices for later delivery trade above prices for nearer delivery. In the physical commodities market, this structure can indicate that supplies are sufficiently available in the near term and that there is less urgency to secure immediate metal. This is an important bearish signal because it contrasts with the rising Yangshan premium. The market is therefore receiving two different messages: China: Physical demand appears stronger. LME: Near-term availability is increasing. The direction of copper prices will depend partly on which signal becomes dominant. US Copper Tariff Uncertainty Remains in the Background Copper prices also remain sensitive to US trade policy. Earlier in the week, copper futures fell to multi-week lows following reports that the Trump administration had postponed a decision concerning potential tariffs on refined copper. The delay removes some immediate uncertainty from the market but does not eliminate the underlying policy risk. Tariff developments can influence global copper flows because changes in US import requirements can redirect physical metal between regions. That means traders will continue monitoring developments around potential refined-copper tariffs and their implications for global inventories, premiums and trade flows. Bullish Sentiment 1. Chinese Physical Demand Is Strengthening The Yangshan premium has climbed to $121 per ton, its highest level since November 2022. That indicates stronger willingness among Chinese buyers to pay for imported copper. 2. Copper Is Benefiting From Structural Data-Center Demand The expansion of data centers and AI infrastructure is expected to support long-term copper consumption through electrical and power infrastructure requirements. 3. Renewable Energy Requires Large Quantities of Copper Grid expansion, renewable generation and electrification provide structural sources of copper demand beyond the traditional industrial cycle. 4. Major Mine Disruptions Are Restricting Supply Disruptions at major mines can remove significant quantities of copper from the global market and support prices when inventories are not sufficient to compensate. 5. Copper Has Recovered From Recent Multi-Week Lows The latest three-session advance demonstrates that buyers have returned to the market following the earlier decline. Bearish Sentiment 1. LME Copper Deliveries Are Increasing Fresh deliveries into LME warehouses reached their highest level in nearly four weeks. If inventories continue rising, concerns about immediate physical shortages could diminish. 2. London Copper Has Moved Into Contango The shift into contango indicates greater near-term availability and represents a bearish signal for the physical market. 3. Near-Term Supply Is Currently Ample The increase in warehouse inventories suggests that copper availability is not currently as constrained as the stronger Chinese premium might imply. 4. US Tariff Policy Remains Uncertain A delayed decision on potential refined-copper tariffs has already contributed to significant price volatility. 5. China's Demand Recovery Must Be Sustained The increase in the Yangshan premium is encouraging, but traders will need to see sustained strength in Chinese buying before concluding that demand has entered a stronger and more durable phase. China Demand Versus LME Inventories Is the Key Battle The central issue for copper prices is increasingly the divergence between Chinese physical demand and Western exchange inventories. The Yangshan premium is sending a distinctly stronger-demand signal. At the same time, rising LME warehouse deliveries and the move into contango indicate that copper is available in sufficient quantities in the near term. If Chinese demand continues strengthening, rising imports could eventually absorb the additional metal entering exchange warehouses. Conversely, if LME inventories continue rising while the Yangshan premium retreats, the market could conclude that current Chinese demand is insufficient to tighten global physical balances. This makes the relationship between Chinese premiums, LME inventories and the futures curve particularly important. What Traders Are Watching Next Copper traders will be focused on: The Yangshan premium — continued increases would reinforce evidence of stronger Chinese physical demand. LME warehouse inventories — further inflows could strengthen the bearish near-term supply argument. The LME futures curve — whether contango deepens or begins to narrow will provide an important availability signal. Chinese copper imports and industrial demand — confirmation of stronger consumption could support further price gains. Major mine disruptions — additional production interruptions could tighten the global supply balance. US refined-copper tariff policy — any announcement could rapidly affect global trade flows and prices. Data-center investment — continued AI infrastructure expansion could strengthen the long-term copper demand outlook. Renewable-energy and grid investment — sustained electrification spending remains an important structural demand driver. Currency Hedger View Copper is priced internationally in US dollars, meaning commodity-market participants can face both copper-price risk and foreign-exchange risk. For producers, exporters, manufacturers and industrial consumers operating outside the United States, changes in the dollar can alter the effective local-currency value of copper transactions. A stronger US dollar can increase the local cost of dollar-denominated copper for international buyers, while currency movements can also influence producer margins and export revenues. This makes monitoring copper futures alongside relevant currency pairs important for businesses with significant copper exposure. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, focuses on foreign-exchange exposure and currency-risk management, providing an additional perspective for companies managing international commodity revenues, purchases and operating costs. Today Markets View Copper is currently being pulled in two directions. The bullish side is gaining support from stronger Chinese physical demand, with the Yangshan premium reaching $121 per ton, its highest level since November 2022. Longer-term demand expectations from data centers, AI infrastructure, renewable energy and electrification also provide structural support, while mine disruptions are creating additional supply concerns. The bearish side is centred on increasing LME warehouse deliveries and the move into contango, both of which suggest that near-term copper availability remains relatively comfortable. The market's next major test will be whether stronger Chinese demand can absorb the additional metal entering exchange warehouses. If the Yangshan premium remains elevated while LME inventories stop rising, the physical market could signal tightening conditions. If inventories continue building and contango persists, the market may continue to view near-term supply as sufficient. For now, copper remains a market where China's physical demand, global mine supply disruptions and exchange inventories are competing to determine the next major price direction. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 18, 2026

Coffee Futures Fall to 2.5-Month Low as Record Global Supply Outlook, Brazil Exports and Vietnam Crop Gains Pressure 2026 Coffee Prices

Coffee futures extended their weekly losses on Thursday as the market continued to price in the prospect of abundant global coffee supplies, with December arabica falling to a 2.5-month low. December ICE Arabica Coffee closed at -5.05 points, or -1.79%, while November ICE Robusta Coffee fell -39 points, or -1.14%. The bearish pressure has intensified over the past three weeks following forecasts for a record global coffee crop and a return to surplus, while large Brazilian exports and improving growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam are adding to expectations of stronger supplies during the 2026/27 season. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected that 2025/26 global coffee production will rise 4.4% year over year to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is expected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That would leave the global coffee market with an estimated 3 million-bag surplus, marking the first global surplus in five years. However, the supply picture is not uniformly bearish. ICE arabica inventories have fallen to a 27-year low of just 217,646 bags, while the potential impact of El Niño on Brazil's 2026/27 crop introduces significant weather risk. This leaves coffee traders balancing an increasingly abundant production outlook against exceptionally tight certified arabica inventories and the possibility of adverse weather later in the year. Coffee Market Snapshot Market FactorLatest DataMarket ImpactDecember Arabica Coffee-5.05 (-1.79%)BearishNovember Robusta Coffee-39 (-1.14%)BearishArabica Price Trend2.5-month lowBearish2025/26 Global Coffee Production183.6M bags, +4.4% y/yBearish2025/26 Global Consumption180.6M bags, -0.9% y/yBearishGlobal Coffee Balance3M-bag surplusBearishBrazil August Coffee Exports4.155M bags, +31% y/yBearishBrazil August Arabica Exports2.87M bags, +26% y/yBearishBrazil August Robusta Exports953,592 bags, +54% y/yBearishVietnam 2026 Jan-Aug Exports1.33M MT, +13.7% y/yBearishVietnam 2025/26 Production1.76M MT, +6% y/yBearishICE Arabica Stocks217,646 bagsBullishICE Robusta Stocks5,043 lotsBearishUSDA 2026/27 Global Production189.7M bags, +6% y/yBearishUSDA 2026/27 Global Ending Stocks26.3M bags, +1.9MBearishUSDA Brazil 2026/27 Crop71.9M bags, +14% y/yBearishEl Niño RiskPotential major weather disruptionBullish risk Why Are Coffee Futures Falling Today? The dominant driver behind the latest decline is the changing global supply outlook. Coffee prices have been under pressure for roughly three weeks as traders increasingly anticipate that global production will exceed consumption. The ICO's latest projection is particularly important because it represents a shift from the tight supply conditions that supported coffee prices during previous seasons. The ICO expects 183.6 million bags of global coffee production in 2025/26, up 4.4% from the previous year, against consumption of 180.6 million bags. That produces an estimated 3 million-bag surplus. It would also represent the first global coffee surplus in five years. For futures markets, the significance is substantial. A market that moves from persistent deficit conditions toward surplus can experience considerable downward pressure as buyers become less concerned about immediate shortages and producers have more coffee available to bring to market. The market is therefore increasingly looking beyond current tightness and toward the potential availability of coffee during the next production cycle. Brazilian Coffee Exports Are Adding Heavy Supply Pressure Brazil is currently one of the biggest bearish factors for coffee prices. As the Brazilian harvest moves toward completion, coffee is increasingly reaching international export markets. Cecafe reported that Brazilian coffee exports rose 31% year over year in August to 4.155 million bags, making it a record August for Brazilian coffee exports. The increase was broad-based. Brazilian arabica exports climbed 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports surged 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazil's Trade Ministry separately reported that August coffee exports increased 44.6% year over year to 206,618 MT, representing the country's highest export volume in eight months. The combination of a large Brazilian crop and exceptionally strong export flows means substantial quantities of coffee are moving into global supply chains. This is particularly important for futures because the market is not simply dealing with expectations of future production. Physical Brazilian coffee is already entering international markets. That can create additional selling pressure as exporters and producers hedge physical inventories and buyers have greater access to available supply. Brazil Weather Is Becoming a Bearish Factor for 2026/27 Weather developments in Brazil are currently adding another bearish component to the market. Above-normal rainfall has arrived during the critical flowering period for coffee trees, potentially improving prospects for the next crop. Somar Meteorologia reported that 59.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais during the week ending September 13, equivalent to 1,212% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil's principal arabica-producing region, making rainfall during flowering particularly important. Under normal circumstances, better soil moisture and favourable rainfall during flowering can improve the prospects for fruit development and ultimately increase production. That is precisely why the current rainfall pattern is weighing on prices. Instead of creating immediate supply concerns, the latest Brazilian weather data is encouraging traders to consider the possibility of another strong crop in 2026/27. Vietnam Coffee Supplies Are Also Increasing Vietnam is providing another major source of supply pressure, particularly for robusta coffee. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and export data indicates that substantial volumes are reaching the international market. Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports during January-August 2026 increased 13.7% year over year to 1.33 million MT. The country's full-year 2025 coffee exports had already increased 17.5% to 1.58 million MT. Production expectations are also improving. Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected at 1.76 million MT, or approximately 29.4 million bags, representing a 6% increase year over year and the highest production level in four years. Forecaster Vaisala also reported that abundant rainfall has improved soil moisture across Vietnam's Central Highlands. The Central Highlands are Vietnam's largest coffee-producing region, meaning better soil moisture conditions could support cherry development and improve the outlook for the upcoming crop. This is particularly bearish for robusta futures because Vietnam is such a dominant producer in that segment. ICE Arabica Inventories Provide a Major Bullish Counter-Signal Despite the broad supply story, the physical availability of certified arabica coffee remains exceptionally tight. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to 217,646 bags, a 27-year low. This is one of the most important bullish factors in the coffee market. The global production outlook may be improving, but certified exchange stocks represent immediately deliverable supplies against futures contracts. A prolonged decline in ICE arabica inventories can therefore provide support to futures even when broader production estimates are rising. It also highlights an important distinction between global production and immediately available exchange-certified stocks. Coffee can be plentiful globally while deliverable inventories remain relatively constrained. That helps explain why the market continues to have a bullish fundamental argument underneath the current bearish price trend. Robusta Inventories Tell a Different Story The inventory picture is considerably less supportive for robusta. ICE robusta inventories climbed to 5,043 lots, a 9.5-month high. Rising certified inventories suggest that physical availability is improving and reduce concerns over immediate shortages. The contrast between arabica and robusta inventories is therefore significant: Arabica inventories: 217,646 bags, a 27-year low — bullish. Robusta inventories: 5,043 lots, a 9.5-month high — bearish. This divergence is one reason the two coffee contracts can respond differently to the same global supply developments. USDA Forecasts Record Global Coffee Production The USDA's latest biannual forecast reinforces the bearish supply narrative. On July 22, the USDA projected 2026/27 global coffee production at a record 189.7 million bags, an increase of 6.0%, or 10.8 million bags, from the previous season. Improved growing conditions in Brazil are expected to be a major contributor to the increase. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise approximately 12% year over year, while robusta production is forecast to decline by only 0.7%. The global ending-stock forecast is also increasing. World coffee ending stocks are projected to rise by approximately 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Higher production combined with higher ending stocks creates a fundamentally bearish backdrop for futures prices. Brazil's 2026/27 Crop Could Reach a Record 71.9 Million Bags Brazil represents the biggest component of the USDA's bullish production assumptions. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecast on June 3 projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year over year. If realised, that would represent a substantial increase in global availability. Brazil's importance to the international coffee market means even relatively small changes in its production outlook can have an outsized impact on futures prices. The combination of: improving rainfall, strong flowering conditions, a large current harvest, record exports, and expectations for a record 2026/27 crop is currently creating substantial downward pressure on coffee futures. El Niño Creates a Major Bullish Weather Risk The largest threat to the bearish production narrative is El Niño. Coffee traders are closely monitoring the potential impact of the weather pattern on Brazil and other major growing regions. Commercial, the coffee trader, has warned that El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, exactly when coffee-tree flowering normally occurs. If rainfall becomes insufficient during this critical period, the next Brazilian crop could suffer despite the currently favourable moisture conditions. The US Climate Prediction Center said on July 8 that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. That raises the possibility of significant weather volatility. Potential floods, droughts and temperature fluctuations later this year could affect coffee-producing regions across Asia and South America. Therefore, while current weather is broadly supportive of production, El Niño creates a significant tail risk for the 2026/27 supply outlook. Bullish Sentiment 1. ICE Arabica Stocks Are at a 27-Year Low ICE arabica inventories of just 217,646 bags indicate extremely tight certified supplies. If stocks continue falling, the market could face renewed concerns about deliverable coffee availability. 2. El Niño Could Damage the 2026/27 Crop A powerful El Niño could disrupt rainfall patterns across Brazil and other producing regions. Any deterioration in flowering or cherry development could quickly reverse the current bearish production narrative. 3. Brazil's Critical Flowering Period Is Approaching The September-October period is particularly important for Brazil's next crop. If rainfall becomes delayed or inadequate, current production expectations could prove too optimistic. 4. Record Production Does Not Guarantee Immediate Availability Global production forecasts can increase while exchange-certified inventories remain low. That distinction leaves the arabica market vulnerable to renewed supply concerns if physical stocks continue tightening. 5. Coffee Weather Risk Remains Elevated The combination of El Niño and the concentration of coffee production in weather-sensitive regions means the market remains vulnerable to sudden supply shocks. Bearish Sentiment 1. Global Coffee Production Is Heading Toward a Record The USDA expects 189.7 million bags of global coffee production in 2026/27, a record high. The ICO also expects record production for 2025/26. 2. The Global Market Is Moving Into Surplus The ICO estimates a 3 million-bag surplus for 2025/26. That represents the first global surplus in five years and significantly weakens the scarcity narrative that previously supported prices. 3. Brazil Is Exporting Coffee at Record Levels Brazil's August exports reached a record 4.155 million bags, up 31% year over year. The availability of Brazilian coffee is therefore increasing precisely when global production expectations are rising. 4. Vietnam Production and Exports Are Increasing Vietnam's exports and production are both rising. That is particularly negative for robusta prices, with Vietnam supplying a major portion of the world's robusta coffee. 5. Robusta Inventories Are Rising ICE robusta stocks at a 9.5-month high of 5,043 lots indicate that supplies are becoming more readily available. 6. Brazilian Growing Conditions Are Currently Favourable The extreme rainfall reported in Minas Gerais has improved soil moisture and could support flowering and crop development. That is a bearish factor if favourable conditions persist. The Coffee Market Is Facing a Fundamental Tug-of-War Coffee futures are currently caught between two very different fundamental narratives. The first is the record-supply narrative. Production is expected to increase, Brazil is exporting aggressively, Vietnam's supply outlook is improving and the ICO sees the global market moving into surplus. The second is the tight-certified-stock and weather-risk narrative. ICE arabica inventories are at a 27-year low, while El Niño could disrupt rainfall during a crucial stage of Brazil's next crop. This creates a market in which the longer-term supply outlook is bearish, but short-term weather developments can still produce sharp rallies. Arabica and Robusta Are Sending Different Signals The divergence between arabica and robusta inventories is particularly important. Arabica futures are facing record production expectations and strong Brazilian exports, but certified stocks are extremely tight. Robusta has the opposite combination: increasing Vietnamese production and exports alongside rising ICE inventories. Consequently, the bearish supply narrative currently has a more direct impact on robusta, while arabica retains a significant underlying support factor through its exceptionally low exchange inventories. What Traders Are Watching Next Coffee traders will be focused on several developments: Brazilian September and October rainfall — particularly during the flowering period. El Niño developments — any evidence of delayed or disrupted rainfall could rapidly change market sentiment. Brazilian export volumes — continued record shipments would reinforce the bearish supply outlook. Vietnamese production and exports — particularly important for robusta. ICE arabica inventories — further declines could strengthen the bullish physical-supply argument. ICE robusta inventories — continued increases would add pressure to robusta futures. USDA crop estimates — revisions to the 2026/27 Brazilian and global production outlook will be closely watched. Global consumption — whether demand can absorb the expected increase in production will determine whether the projected surplus materialises. Currency Hedger View Coffee is a globally traded commodity, meaning producers, exporters, roasters and international buyers can face significant foreign-exchange exposure alongside commodity-price risk. For Brazilian coffee exporters, movements in the Brazilian real against the US dollar can influence the local-currency value of dollar-denominated coffee revenues. For international buyers and traders, exchange-rate movements can similarly alter the effective cost of physical coffee. This means the coffee market cannot always be assessed through futures prices alone. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, focuses on foreign-exchange exposure and currency-risk management, providing a relevant perspective for businesses whose coffee revenues, purchases or operating costs span multiple currencies. For coffee-market participants, monitoring both coffee futures and USD/BRL currency movements can therefore provide a more complete picture of the effective commercial price environment. Today Markets View Coffee futures are under significant pressure as the market increasingly prices in larger global production, record Brazilian exports, stronger Vietnamese supplies and the possibility of a global surplus. The ICO's projected 3 million-bag surplus and the USDA's forecast for 189.7 million bags of global production in 2026/27 provide the market with a substantial bearish supply narrative. Brazil is particularly important. Record August exports, favourable rainfall in Minas Gerais and the USDA's projected 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop all point toward greater availability. However, the bearish case is not without major risks. ICE arabica inventories have fallen to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags, while the potential impact of a strong El Niño pattern on Brazil's September-October flowering period could dramatically change the 2026/27 production outlook. For now, coffee futures are responding primarily to the prospect of abundant supplies. But with certified arabica stocks exceptionally tight and weather risk increasing, the market remains highly sensitive to any deterioration in Brazil's crop outlook. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 18, 2026

Cocoa Futures Crash Over 3% as Ivory Coast Output Surges and ICE Inventories Hit Two-Year High

Cocoa futures fell sharply on Thursday, with New York cocoa dropping more than 3% and London cocoa nearly 3% as traders focused on improving near-term supplies, rising Ivory Coast production and elevated ICE inventories. The sell-off comes despite significant longer-term concerns over West African crop quality, Ghanaian production and potential El Niño-related supply disruptions. December ICE NY Cocoa closed at 5,784, down 207 points, or 3.46%, while December ICE London Cocoa #7 closed at 4,240, down 125 points, or 2.86%. Both markets fell to one-week lows. Cocoa has been under pressure for approximately two weeks as evidence of stronger production in the Ivory Coast has reduced concerns over immediate supply availability. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported that the country harvested approximately 2.06 MMT of cocoa between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier. More recent shipping data has also pointed toward substantial supply availability. Bloomberg reported that cumulative Ivory Coast cocoa shipments reached 2.14 MMT during the international cocoa marketing year from October 1, 2025 through September 13, 2026, up 18% year-on-year. However, the country's own marketing calendar has shifted this year, creating an important statistical distinction. Ivory Coast moved its marketing year start forward to September 1. Reuters reported that deliveries under the new Ivory Coast marketing year totaled 26,000 MT between September 1 and September 13, down 45.8% from the comparable period of the previous season. The market is therefore receiving conflicting signals depending on the reporting period used. At the same time, ICE cocoa inventories have climbed sharply. Stocks reached a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags on September 4 and remained close to that level at 3,429,167 bags on Thursday. The combination of strong recent production, large export flows and elevated exchange inventories is weighing heavily on near-term prices. However, the longer-term supply outlook remains considerably more uncertain. Ghana is forecasting a smaller 2026/27 crop, while early assessments of the Ivory Coast main crop indicate poor pod development. Weather conditions are also becoming an increasingly important risk factor. The potential development of a strong El Niño could bring warmer and drier conditions to West Africa, potentially reducing cocoa yields. The result is a market caught between adequate near-term supply and increasingly uncertain future production. Cocoa Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalDec 26 NY Cocoa5,784Daily move-207 / -3.46%Dec 26 London Cocoa #74,240Daily move-125 / -2.86%NY cocoa trend1-week lowLondon cocoa trend1-week lowIvory Coast 2025/26 harvest2.06 MMTIvory Coast harvest YoY+30%Ivory Coast international-year shipments2.14 MMTIvory Coast shipments YoY+18%Ivory Coast Sep 1-13 deliveries26,000 MTSep deliveries YoY-45.8%ICE cocoa inventories3,429,167 bagsRecent inventory high3,436,742 bagsGhana 2025/26 harvest750,000 MTGhana harvest YoY+25.6%Ghana 2026/27 crop estimate650,000 MTGhana crop estimate YoY-13%Ghana COCOBOD potential 2026/27 range450,000-550,000 MTIvory Coast early 2026/27 estimate~1.8 MMTIvory Coast early estimate YoY-18%StoneX 2026/27 global balance+25,000 MT surplusTransgraph 2026/27 global balance+80,000 MT surplusQ2 European grindings316,366 MTEuropean grindings YoY-4.6%Q2 North American grindings109,659 MTNorth American grindings YoY+7.7%Q2 Asian grindings224,646 MTAsian grindings YoY+25% Why Are Cocoa Futures Falling Today? The immediate reason for Thursday's decline is the perception that near-term cocoa supplies are adequate. Cocoa futures had rallied strongly in late August and early September, with New York cocoa reaching an 11.5-month high on August 31 and London cocoa reaching an 11.5-month high on September 1. That rally was supported by concerns over West African crop quality and future production. The subsequent improvement in supply data has caused traders to reassess that outlook. Ivory Coast's reported harvest of 2.06 MMT, representing a 30% increase from the previous year, has provided the market with evidence that current production is substantially stronger. Export shipments have also remained high when measured against the international cocoa marketing year. The result is a reduction in immediate supply anxiety. With futures now falling, speculative and commercial traders are also reassessing positions established during the previous rally. Ivory Coast Cocoa Production Is Driving the Near-Term Bearish Outlook Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa producer, making production and export data from the country particularly important for global prices. The cocoa regulator reported 2.06 MMT harvested between June 2025 and June 2026, compared with 1.58 MMT a year earlier. That represents an increase of approximately 30%. Bloomberg's international marketing-year data also showed shipments of 2.14 MMT, up 18% year-on-year. Taken together, those figures provide a strong near-term supply signal. However, there is an important complication. Ivory Coast has changed its own marketing year this season, moving the start date to September 1 rather than the international October 1 starting point. Reuters' figures based on the new local marketing year showed only 26,000 MT of deliveries from September 1-13, down 45.8% from the comparable previous-season period. This means traders need to be careful when comparing the two datasets. The international-year shipment data remains strong, while the new local marketing-year data shows a substantial early-season decline. ICE Cocoa Inventories Reach a Two-Year High Exchange inventories are providing another bearish signal. ICE cocoa stocks climbed to 3,436,742 bags on September 4, the highest level in two years. Stocks remained elevated at 3,429,167 bags on Thursday. Rising exchange inventories indicate that cocoa availability for delivery against futures contracts has increased substantially. That is particularly important following the sharp price rally seen during late August and early September. If inventories remain elevated or continue rising, traders may have less incentive to price in an immediate physical shortage. However, inventory levels alone do not determine the longer-term supply outlook. The condition of the upcoming West African crops remains a significant variable. Global Cocoa Market Is Well Supplied for Now Barry Callebaut, the world's largest cocoa processor, said earlier this month that the global cocoa market is currently well supplied. The company also indicated that the market is better prepared to manage supply risks than it was during the 2023/24 El Niño event, when cocoa prices reached record highs. That assessment supports the current bearish pressure. If processors have adequate stocks and physical supplies remain available, immediate demand for additional cocoa becomes less urgent. However, the current situation could change if the next major West African crops disappoint. That is where the longer-term supply outlook becomes increasingly important. Ghana Cocoa Production Faces a Major Decline Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer and represents one of the most important sources of global supply. The country's Cocoa Board estimated that the 2026/27 crop could reach approximately 650,000 MT, down 13% from the 750,000 MT produced in 2025/26. COCOBOD has provided an even wider and more bearish production range. It projected that 2026/27 production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 MT. The potential decline has been attributed to swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and adverse weather risks. If production falls toward the lower end of that range, the global balance could tighten significantly. However, the current marketing year has been considerably stronger. Ghana reported 750,000 MT harvested for 2025/26, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. This helps explain why near-term supply remains adequate despite concerns over the next crop. Ivory Coast's Next Crop Could Be Much Smaller While current Ivory Coast production is strong, early assessments of the next main crop are considerably less encouraging. Early surveys indicate below-average cherelle formation, a development that can signal weaker pod production later in the crop cycle. Initial estimates put the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop at approximately 1.8 MMT, around 18% below the roughly 2.2 MMT produced in 2025/26. This creates one of the most important contradictions in the cocoa market. Current production is strong, but early indicators for the next crop are weak. That distinction could become increasingly important as traders shift their attention away from current inventories and toward the next harvest. West African Weather Remains a Major Cocoa Risk Weather remains one of the largest uncertainties facing the cocoa market. The potential development of a strong El Niño pattern could bring warmer and drier conditions to West Africa. For cocoa trees, reduced rainfall can lower soil moisture and increase stress, potentially reducing yields. The US Climate Prediction Center said in July that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. If the weather pattern produces prolonged dryness across the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the impact could become visible in future crop estimates. That would potentially shift the market's focus away from current supply availability and toward future production risk. Cocoa Crop Quality Is Becoming More Important The quantity of cocoa available is only one part of the market equation. Quality is also becoming increasingly important. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have created conditions that can encourage the spread of black pod disease. Black pod can damage cocoa beans and reduce crop quality. This is one reason cocoa prices were able to rally sharply despite improving production figures. If quality deterioration becomes widespread, processors may need to pay premiums for suitable beans even when total production remains relatively strong. Cocoa Demand Is Sending Mixed Signals Demand data is also divided geographically. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year-on-year in Q2 to 316,366 MT, according to the European Cocoa Association. The decline was larger than the expected 1.5% fall and represented the weakest Q2 grinding level in six years. That is a significant bearish demand signal. However, North American demand moved in the opposite direction. The National Confectioners Association reported Q2 North American cocoa grindings of 109,659 MT, up 7.7% year-on-year. Asian demand was even stronger. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported Q2 grindings of 224,646 MT, an increase of 25% year-on-year. The global demand picture is therefore far from uniform. European demand is weakening, while North American and Asian grinding activity has strengthened. Bullish Sentiment 1. Ghana's 2026/27 Crop Could Fall Sharply Ghana's Cocoa Board estimates production at 650,000 MT, down 13%, while COCOBOD has warned that output could potentially fall as low as 450,000-550,000 MT. 2. Ivory Coast's Next Crop Looks Weaker Early assessments point toward an approximately 1.8 MMT 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop, around 18% below the previous season. 3. West African Crop Quality Is a Concern Cloudy weather, limited sunshine and black pod disease could reduce cocoa quality in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. 4. El Niño Could Damage Future Production A strong El Niño could produce warmer and drier conditions across major West African cocoa-producing regions. 5. Global Surplus Forecasts Are Shrinking StoneX has reduced its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to just 25,000 MT, down from 149,000 MT previously. 6. Asian Cocoa Demand Is Strong Asian Q2 grindings increased 25% year-on-year to 224,646 MT, substantially exceeding expectations. 7. North American Grindings Increased North American Q2 cocoa grindings rose 7.7%, contradicting concerns about a broad collapse in global demand. Bearish Sentiment 1. Ivory Coast Current Production Is Much Higher The Ivory Coast reported 2.06 MMT harvested, up 30% year-on-year. 2. Ivory Coast Shipments Are Strong International marketing-year shipments reached 2.14 MMT, up 18% year-on-year. 3. ICE Inventories Are Near a Two-Year High ICE stocks remain at 3,429,167 bags, close to the two-year high recorded earlier this month. 4. Physical Supply Is Currently Considered Adequate Barry Callebaut has described the global cocoa market as well supplied. 5. Ghana's Current Crop Is Strong Ghana harvested approximately 750,000 MT in 2025/26, up 25.6% year-on-year. 6. European Cocoa Demand Is Weak European Q2 grindings fell 4.6%, reaching the lowest Q2 level in six years. 7. Heavy Supply Is Pressuring Futures NY cocoa fell 3.46% and London cocoa declined 2.86% on Thursday as traders reacted to improving near-term supply conditions. The Cocoa Market Has Two Completely Different Supply Stories The most important feature of the current cocoa market is the difference between current supply and future supply. Current supply is relatively comfortable. Ivory Coast production is higher. International shipments are strong. ICE inventories are elevated. Barry Callebaut says the market is well supplied. But future supply is considerably less certain. Ghana's next crop is expected to decline. Early Ivory Coast crop indicators are weak. Crop quality remains vulnerable to disease. And El Niño could create additional weather stress. This means the market is not simply bullish or bearish. Instead, traders are weighing comfortable near-term availability against potentially tighter future production. The Market Is Watching the Transition From Old Crop to New Crop The next phase of cocoa trading will increasingly depend on the transition between the current and upcoming crops. The current production figures have helped push prices lower because they demonstrate that physical cocoa is available. However, traders will eventually need to price the next crop. If early production indicators deteriorate further, the current inventory surplus could prove temporary. Conversely, if the next crop performs better than currently expected, the market could remain well supplied for longer. This makes upcoming crop surveys, weather patterns and West African arrivals particularly important. Cocoa Prices Are Also Vulnerable to Positioning The recent rally to an 11.5-month high in New York and London created substantial room for profit-taking. Once prices began falling, the market's attention shifted toward the strong current supply data. The result has been a sharp reversal. Thursday's decline of more than 3% in New York demonstrates how quickly sentiment can change when a heavily watched commodity moves from supply concerns toward evidence of adequate availability. Further declines could occur if inventories continue rising and West African shipments remain strong. However, any deterioration in the next crop could quickly restore supply concerns. What Traders Are Watching Next The major cocoa-market catalysts include: Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals Ivory Coast crop assessments Ghana cocoa production Ghana COCOBOD forecasts West African cocoa quality Black pod disease Cherelle formation ICE cocoa inventories Global cocoa grindings European cocoa demand North American cocoa demand Asian cocoa demand El Niño developments West African rainfall Brazilian cocoa production Global cocoa balance forecasts StoneX supply estimates Transgraph global balance estimates Barry Callebaut processing commentary The most important near-term question is whether rising inventories and strong Ivory Coast production continue to outweigh concerns over the next West African crop. Currency Hedger View Cocoa is traded internationally in US dollars, creating currency exposure for processors, manufacturers, exporters and international buyers. For a European, Asian or other non-US cocoa buyer, movements in the US dollar can materially change the effective cost of cocoa even when futures prices remain unchanged. A weaker domestic currency against the dollar can increase the local-currency cost of imported cocoa. Conversely, currency appreciation can reduce the effective cost of dollar-denominated purchases. This creates a combined exposure: Cocoa price risk + USD exchange-rate risk. For cocoa processors, confectionery manufacturers and international commodity businesses, managing the currency component can therefore be an important part of controlling overall input costs and protecting margins. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group Ltd, focuses on foreign-exchange exposure and currency-risk management for businesses operating across international markets. Today Markets View Cocoa futures are under significant short-term pressure as the market responds to adequate current supplies, stronger Ivory Coast production and elevated ICE inventories. The 3.46% decline in New York cocoa and 2.86% fall in London cocoa demonstrate how quickly the market has shifted from the supply concerns that drove the late-August rally. However, the longer-term outlook remains considerably less straightforward. Ghana's next crop is expected to decline, early Ivory Coast assessments point toward lower production, crop quality remains vulnerable to disease and El Niño could create additional weather stress across West Africa. Demand is also mixed, with European grindings falling while North American and Asian grinding activity increases. The key question is therefore whether comfortable current inventories can persist long enough to offset the potential deterioration in future West African production. For now, near-term supply is dominating price action. But the cocoa market remains highly sensitive to West African weather and crop-development data, meaning the current bearish momentum could be challenged if evidence emerges that the next crop is materially smaller than expected. “Cocoa has moved rapidly from supply anxiety toward near-term supply comfort. Strong Ivory Coast production and elevated ICE inventories are currently dominating the market, but the next crop presents a very different picture. Ghana and Ivory Coast production risks, crop quality and El Niño remain critical variables that could determine whether today's surplus conditions persist.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 18, 2026

Sugar Futures Crash Over 3% as Long Liquidation Hits Despite 2026/27 Global Sugar Deficit

Sugar futures tumbled to three-week lows on Thursday, with NY sugar falling more than 3% and London white sugar dropping nearly 3% as weak physical demand triggered long liquidation. The sell-off comes despite growing forecasts for a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 and mounting production risks across Brazil, India and Thailand. October NY World Sugar #11 closed at 17.45 cents per pound, down 0.55 cents, or 3.06%, while December London ICE White Sugar #5 closed at $508.20 per tonne, down $15.40, or 2.94%. The latest decline extends a week-long slide and has pushed sugar futures to their lowest levels in three weeks. The immediate pressure is coming from evidence of weak physical demand and the potential for significant long liquidation following a major build-up in speculative long positions. A total of 499,350 MT of sugar was delivered against the October London sugar contract, which expired Tuesday. That was 91% higher than a year earlier and represented one of the largest October contract deliveries on record. The exceptionally large delivery is being interpreted as a sign of weak physical demand. At the same time, commodity funds have accumulated a substantial net-long position in NY sugar. The latest weekly Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their NY sugar net-long position by 28,055 contracts during the week ending September 8, taking total net longs to 160,551 contracts, the highest level in almost three years. That positioning creates additional downside vulnerability if traders continue liquidating long positions. Yet the broader supply outlook remains supportive. The International Sugar Organization recently projected a 200,000 MT global sugar deficit for 2026/27, compared with a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26. Other analysts have projected considerably larger deficits. StoneX has forecast a 1.7 MMT deficit, while Czarnikow has projected a 2.9 MMT deficit for 2027/28. The market is therefore facing a significant conflict: Weak physical demand and heavy speculative positioning are pressuring prices today, while tightening global production expectations and weather risks could support prices further forward. Sugar Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalOct 26 NY Sugar #1117.45 cents/lbDaily move-0.55 cents / -3.06%Dec 26 London White Sugar #5$508.20/MTDaily move-$15.40 / -2.94%NY sugar trend3-week lowLondon sugar trend3-week lowOctober London delivery499,350 MTDelivery YoY+91%NY sugar fund net longs160,551 contractsWeekly fund position change+28,055 contractsISO 2026/27 balance-200,000 MT deficitStoneX 2026/27 balance-1.7 MMT deficitCovrig 2026/27 balance-300,000 MT deficitCzarnikow 2027/28 balance-2.9 MMT deficitISO 2025/26 balance+1.1 MMT surplusISO 2026/27 production180.1 MMTISO 2025/26 production182 MMTUSDA 2026/27 production184.854 MMTUSDA 2026/27 consumption179.991 MMTUSDA 2026/27 ending stocks44.410 MMTThailand 2026/27 production estimate9.5-10 MMTIndia 2026/27 production forecast33.6 MMTBrazil 2026/27 production forecast42.5 MMT Why Are Sugar Futures Falling Today? The immediate catalyst is the combination of weak physical demand and excessive speculative positioning. Sugar prices had previously rallied strongly on expectations of a tightening global balance. NY sugar reached a 17-month high last Thursday, while London sugar reached a three-week high. The subsequent reversal has created an environment in which traders holding profitable long positions have an incentive to reduce exposure. The enormous October London delivery has added to those concerns. Nearly 500,000 MT was delivered against the expiring contract. That volume was 91% higher year-on-year, making it one of the largest October deliveries on record. The market is interpreting the delivery volume as evidence that physical buyers are not taking sufficient quantities of sugar directly from the futures market. That creates a potentially bearish near-term signal. However, it does not necessarily eliminate the longer-term supply concerns. Massive London Sugar Deliveries Signal Weak Physical Demand The 499,350 MT October delivery is one of the most important developments behind Thursday's decline. A large delivery against an expiring futures contract can indicate that substantial quantities of physical sugar are being made available for delivery rather than being absorbed through normal commercial demand. The fact that deliveries were 91% above last year makes the figure particularly notable. For traders, this raises questions about the strength of current physical demand. If demand remains weak, producers and merchants may face greater pressure to move inventories, potentially weighing on futures. However, the market must also consider whether the delivery surge is a temporary positioning event associated with contract expiration or evidence of a broader deterioration in physical consumption. That distinction will become clearer as the market moves beyond the October contract. Commodity Funds Are Heavily Long Sugar Speculative positioning represents another major source of downside risk. The latest COT data showed commodity funds increasing their NY sugar net-long position by 28,055 contracts. Total net longs reached 160,551 contracts, the highest level in almost three years. That is significant because heavily long markets can become vulnerable to rapid liquidation. When prices begin falling, funds may reduce positions to protect profits or limit losses. That selling can accelerate downside momentum even when the underlying fundamental outlook has not changed dramatically. Thursday's more than 3% decline in NY sugar is therefore occurring against a market with substantial speculative exposure. If liquidation continues, futures could remain under pressure even while longer-term production forecasts remain supportive. The Global Sugar Balance Is Turning Tighter The bearish short-term price action contrasts sharply with the increasingly supportive longer-term supply outlook. The International Sugar Organization expects the global market to move from a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26 to a 200,000 MT deficit in 2026/27. That represents a significant change in the global balance. The ISO expects 2026/27 production to decline approximately 1% year-on-year to 180.1 MMT. Other analysts see a considerably larger deficit. StoneX has projected a 1.7 MMT global deficit, while Covrig Analytics has forecast a 300,000 MT deficit. Czarnikow has gone further, projecting a 2.9 MMT deficit in 2027/28. The different estimates demonstrate substantial uncertainty surrounding future global production. The common theme, however, is that the market could move from surplus toward tighter supply conditions. Brazil Sugar Production Faces Pressure Brazil remains critical to the global sugar market because it is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. Lower Brazilian sugar output would therefore have an outsized impact on global availability. Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South June sugar production fell 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 MMT. StoneX has also forecast a decline in Brazilian production for 2026/27. Its latest forecast puts Brazil's production at approximately 42.5 MMT, down around 3% year-on-year. The relationship between sugar and ethanol production is also important. Brazilian mills can allocate cane toward either sugar or ethanol. Higher crude oil prices can encourage greater ethanol production, potentially reducing the quantity of cane processed into sugar. That creates an important link between the energy market and sugar prices. Thailand Sugar Production Could Fall Sharply Thailand is another major factor for the global sugar balance. The country is the world's second-largest sugar exporter. Thai Sugar Millers Corp has projected that 2026/27 production could fall 17% year-on-year to approximately 10 MMT. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has also forecast a significant decline, projecting Thai production at approximately 9.5 MMT, down 15.6%. A substantial reduction in Thai production would tighten export availability in the international market. That could become increasingly important if production losses occur simultaneously in other major producing countries. India's Monsoon Is a Major Sugar Risk India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, making its weather outlook particularly important. India's Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 15% below normal as of September 16. Conditions have improved significantly from the 42% deficit recorded on June 30, but rainfall remains below normal. India's Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year's monsoon could be the country's weakest in 11 years. Because sugar cane requires substantial water availability, continued weather stress could affect yields and future production. India's government has already taken steps that demonstrate concerns about domestic supply. India Allows Sugar Imports India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced in August that the country would permit up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports free of taxes until October 31. That is notable because India is normally a major sugar exporter. The country last imported substantial quantities of sugar during the 2017-18 season. The decision therefore highlights concerns over domestic supply and demonstrates how weather conditions can quickly alter India's position in the global sugar market. If Indian imports remain elevated, they could tighten internationally traded sugar availability. El Niño Creates Additional Production Risk Weather remains one of the biggest long-term risks facing the sugar market. The development of a strong El Niño pattern could disrupt rainfall across major producing regions. Brazil, India and Thailand are particularly important because together they represent three of the world's most significant sugar-producing areas. The US Climate Prediction Center said in July that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. A sustained weather disruption could reduce cane and beet yields and potentially push the global market further into deficit. However, weather forecasts remain subject to change, meaning the eventual impact on production is uncertain. Global Sugar Production Remains Near Record Levels Despite the increasingly supportive 2026/27 outlook, the market is still coming from a period of substantial global production. The ISO expects 2025/26 global sugar production to reach a record 182 MMT, up around 3.5% year-on-year. It forecasts a 1.1 MMT surplus for the season. The USDA has also projected elevated global production. Its 2026/27 forecast calls for 184.854 MMT, compared with 186.056 MMT in 2025/26. The USDA expects global human consumption to increase 0.4% to a record 179.991 MMT. It also forecasts global ending stocks of 44.410 MMT, up approximately 2% year-on-year. These figures demonstrate why the market is not facing an immediate global supply shortage. Instead, the market is transitioning from a relatively well-supplied period toward potentially tighter balances. Bullish Sentiment 1. Global Sugar Balance Could Move Into Deficit The ISO forecasts a 200,000 MT global deficit for 2026/27, compared with a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26. 2. StoneX Projects a Much Larger Deficit StoneX estimates a 1.7 MMT global deficit, significantly larger than the ISO projection. 3. Thailand Production Could Fall Sharply Thai production forecasts point to declines of roughly 15.6%-17%. As the world's second-largest sugar exporter, reduced Thai production could tighten international availability. 4. Brazilian Production Is Under Pressure Brazil's Center-South June sugar production declined 26.3% year-on-year. Lower Brazilian production could reduce global export availability. 5. India's Weather Remains a Risk Indian rainfall remains below normal, while government action to permit tax-free raw sugar imports highlights domestic supply concerns. 6. El Niño Could Disrupt Major Producers A strong El Niño could reduce rainfall across Brazil, India and Thailand, creating additional production risks. 7. Longer-Term Deficit Forecasts Are Increasing Czarnikow expects a 2.9 MMT global deficit in 2027/28, suggesting supply concerns could extend beyond the current season. Bearish Sentiment 1. Sugar Futures Have Fallen More Than 3% October NY sugar declined 3.06%, while December London sugar fell 2.94%. 2. Physical Deliveries Are Extremely High The October London contract recorded 499,350 MT of deliveries, up 91% year-on-year. The scale of deliveries points to weak physical demand. 3. Commodity Funds Are Heavily Long Funds held 160,551 net-long NY sugar positions, the highest level in almost three years. That creates significant liquidation risk. 4. Long Liquidation Could Accelerate the Decline The combination of high speculative exposure and falling prices could encourage additional fund selling. 5. Global Stocks Remain Large The USDA expects 2026/27 global ending stocks of 44.410 MMT, up approximately 2% year-on-year. 6. 2025/26 Production Was a Record The ISO expects 2025/26 production of approximately 182 MMT, creating substantial available supply entering the new marketing period. 7. India Could Produce More Sugar The USDA FAS forecasts Indian 2026/27 production at 33.6 MMT, up 12% year-on-year. If that forecast is achieved, it could offset some production losses elsewhere. Sugar Is Caught Between Demand Weakness and Supply Tightness The central issue facing sugar traders is the divergence between near-term demand and longer-term supply fundamentals. Physical demand currently appears weak. The enormous London delivery against the October contract provides evidence of substantial sugar availability. Speculative positioning also remains elevated. But the supply outlook further ahead is becoming increasingly restrictive. Brazilian production is under pressure. Thailand's crop is expected to decline significantly. India faces monsoon uncertainty. And several analysts are now forecasting global deficits. The result is a market where the short-term fundamental picture is bearish while the longer-term balance is becoming increasingly supportive. That distinction is likely to remain central to price formation. The Speculative Positioning Risk Could Be Critical The 160,551-contract net-long position held by commodity funds is particularly important. When speculative positioning reaches elevated levels, a relatively modest fundamental change can trigger disproportionate price movements. Thursday's decline illustrates that dynamic. Sugar had recently rallied to a 17-month high in New York, creating substantial potential for profit-taking. As prices reversed, long liquidation became an increasingly important source of selling pressure. The key question now is whether liquidation ends once speculative exposure is reduced or whether falling prices begin attracting additional selling. If funds continue reducing their positions, the futures market could remain under pressure even if production forecasts continue to deteriorate. What Traders Are Watching Next The major sugar-market catalysts include: Commodity fund positioning NY sugar open interest London sugar deliveries Brazil Center-South production Brazilian cane crushing Brazil sugar-versus-ethanol allocation Crude oil prices Indian monsoon rainfall Indian sugar production Indian sugar imports Thai sugar production El Niño developments Global sugar consumption Global ending stocks ISO supply-and-demand forecasts StoneX global balance estimates Czarnikow long-term forecasts Global sugar export availability The immediate focus will be whether the liquidation of speculative positions continues and whether physical demand begins improving. Currency Hedger View Sugar is traded internationally in US dollars, creating an additional layer of exposure for producers, exporters, refiners and international buyers. A change in the US dollar can alter the effective local-currency price of sugar even when NY or London futures remain unchanged. For example, a sugar buyer operating in euros, pounds, rupees or another currency may experience a significant change in effective purchasing costs because of movements in the dollar exchange rate. For exporters, the currency effect can influence the value of dollar-denominated revenues once converted back into the company's operating currency. This creates a combined exposure: Sugar price risk + USD exchange-rate risk. For businesses purchasing or selling sugar internationally, managing the currency component can therefore be an important part of controlling total commodity costs and margins. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group Ltd, focuses on foreign-exchange exposure and currency-risk management for businesses operating across international markets. Today Markets View Sugar futures are currently being pulled in opposite directions. Near-term demand indicators are bearish. The enormous 499,350 MT London delivery, weak physical demand signals and heavy speculative positioning have created substantial liquidation pressure. At the same time, the medium- and longer-term supply outlook is becoming more supportive. The ISO expects the global market to move from a 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26 to a 200,000 MT deficit in 2026/27, while StoneX expects a considerably larger 1.7 MMT deficit. Brazilian production is under pressure, Thailand is expected to produce substantially less sugar, India's monsoon remains below normal and El Niño presents an additional threat to global yields. The critical question for the market is therefore whether near-term liquidation can overwhelm tightening fundamentals. For now, speculative selling and weak physical demand are dominating price action. But if fund positioning normalizes while production risks continue to build, the market could increasingly refocus on the tightening global balance. “Sugar is currently caught between heavy speculative liquidation and a deteriorating longer-term supply outlook. The immediate price signal is bearish, with futures falling to three-week lows and physical deliveries highlighting weak demand. However, declining production forecasts across key producers mean the longer-term supply picture remains an important counterweight.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 18, 2026

Cotton Futures Fall Over 200 Points as Weak US Export Sales Clash With Strong Cotton Shipments

Cotton futures fell sharply across the board on Thursday, with front-month contracts losing more than 200 points as weak new-crop export sales, lower benchmark prices and a decline in crude oil added pressure to the market. Cotton futures posted losses across the board, with front-month contracts declining between 179 and 219 points. Crude oil fell $1.34 per barrel on the session, while the US dollar index slipped 0.024 points. The latest USDA Export Sales report showed just 71,231 RB of 2026/27 cotton sales for the week ending September 10, highlighting relatively subdued new-crop demand. Vietnam was the largest buyer with 28,200 RB, followed by Guatemala with 14,000 RB. New-crop 2027/28 sales totaled just 6,160 RB. However, physical shipments provided a more supportive signal, reaching 142,078 RB, which was 17.91% above the same week last year. Vietnam was again the leading destination, receiving 44,600 RB during the week. The market is therefore facing a mixed demand picture: weak new sales commitments but significantly stronger physical shipments. Meanwhile, The Seam reported an average sale price of 75.22 cents per pound in Wednesday's sale covering 300 bales. The Cotlook A Index declined 5 points on September 16 to 94.60, while ICE-certified cotton stocks fell by 1,313 bales to 36,617 bales. The Adjusted World Price also weakened, falling 59 points to 68.92 cents per pound. Cotton Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalOct 26 Cotton78.41 cents/lbDaily move-203 pointsDec 26 Cotton82.17 cents/lbDaily move-219 pointsMar 27 Cotton84.81 cents/lbDaily move-208 points2026/27 export sales71,231 RB2027/28 new-crop sales6,160 RBWeekly shipments142,078 RBShipments YoY+17.91%Top buyerVietnam — 28,200 RBTop shipment destinationVietnam — 44,600 RBThe Seam average price75.22 cents/lbCotlook A Index94.60ICE certified stocks36,617 balesWeekly ICE stock change-1,313 balesAdjusted World Price68.92 cents/lbCrude oil-$1.34/bblUS Dollar Index-0.024 Why Cotton Futures Are Falling The primary pressure point in Thursday's market was the weakness in cotton futures themselves, with all three highlighted contracts losing more than 200 points. The decline comes against a backdrop of relatively light new-crop export commitments. The latest Export Sales report showed only 71,231 RB of 2026/27 sales, while 2027/28 commitments were just 6,160 RB. That suggests buyers are not aggressively extending forward commitments despite the beginning of the new crop marketing period. Vietnam was the largest buyer, accounting for 28,200 RB, while Guatemala purchased another 14,000 RB. The relatively limited level of new sales is therefore weighing on sentiment. However, the demand picture is not uniformly negative. Actual shipments were considerably stronger, reaching 142,078 RB, up 17.91% from the same week last year. The market must therefore distinguish between new demand commitments and physical demand already being fulfilled. Export Shipments Provide a Supportive Signal While new sales were disappointing, weekly shipments provided an important counterbalance. Shipments reached 142,078 RB, significantly above the same period last year. The 17.91% year-on-year increase indicates that cotton is continuing to move through the export channel at a healthy pace. Vietnam was the largest destination, receiving 44,600 RB. That is important because strong shipments can indicate that previously booked export business is being converted into actual physical demand. The question for traders is whether this stronger shipment pace can eventually encourage additional buying. If new sales begin to accelerate while shipments remain elevated, the demand picture could improve. If shipments remain strong but new commitments stay weak, the market could continue viewing the current export environment as supportive for existing demand but less encouraging for future sales. Cotton Prices and Physical Markets Remain Under Pressure The Seam reported an average sale price of 75.22 cents per pound in Wednesday's sale involving 300 bales. The Cotlook A Index also declined, falling 5 points to 94.60 on September 16. The combination of lower futures prices and a weaker physical benchmark suggests that the pressure is not confined solely to the futures market. The Adjusted World Price fell another 59 points to 68.92 cents per pound on Thursday. The lower AWP adds another indication that the international pricing environment has weakened. For producers, merchants and processors, the relationship between futures, physical cotton values and the AWP will remain important as the new crop develops. ICE Certified Stocks Are Declining One of the more supportive elements in the latest data is the decline in ICE-certified cotton stocks. Certified stocks fell by 1,313 bales on September 16, leaving total certified inventories at 36,617 bales. Lower certified stocks can provide a supportive signal because exchange-certified inventory represents cotton available to satisfy futures delivery requirements. However, the decline needs to be considered alongside the broader demand picture. If certified stocks continue falling while export shipments remain strong, physical availability could become a more important market consideration. If export demand weakens and stocks subsequently stabilize or rebuild, the supportive impact of declining certified inventories could diminish. Crude Oil and the US Dollar Add to the Pressure The broader commodity environment also provided little assistance to cotton on Thursday. Crude oil declined $1.34 per barrel, while the US dollar index fell 0.024 points. Energy prices can influence cotton indirectly through competition with synthetic fibres and through agricultural production and transportation costs. The direction of the US dollar is also important for US cotton because exchange-rate movements affect the competitiveness of American exports in international markets. Thursday's dollar move was relatively small, but currency conditions remain an important variable for global cotton demand. For international buyers, changes in the dollar can alter the effective cost of US cotton even when the futures price itself remains unchanged. Bullish Sentiment 1. Export Shipments Are Above Last Year Weekly shipments reached 142,078 RB, up 17.91% year-on-year. That indicates that physical export movement remains relatively strong. 2. ICE Certified Stocks Are Falling Certified stocks declined by 1,313 bales to 36,617 bales. Continued reductions could provide a supportive signal for exchange-deliverable supply. 3. Vietnam Remains an Important Buyer Vietnam purchased 28,200 RB of 2026/27 cotton and was also the leading shipment destination with 44,600 RB. The country's continued presence in both sales and shipments demonstrates ongoing participation in the US cotton market. 4. Physical Demand Is Outperforming New Sales Although new export commitments were relatively weak, actual shipments remained strong. That suggests previously booked demand continues to translate into physical movement. 5. Lower Certified Inventory Could Become More Significant If certified stocks continue declining while shipments remain elevated, available exchange stocks could become increasingly relevant to price formation. Bearish Sentiment 1. New-Crop Export Sales Are Weak 2026/27 sales totaled only 71,231 RB during the latest reporting week. That indicates relatively limited fresh forward demand. 2. 2027/28 Commitments Are Also Limited New-crop 2027/28 sales were only 6,160 RB, suggesting buyers have so far shown limited appetite for extending commitments further into the future. 3. Cotton Futures Fell More Than 200 Points October cotton declined 203 points, December fell 219 points, and March 2027 dropped 208 points. The broad-based decline indicates significant selling pressure across the futures curve. 4. The Cotlook A Index Is Falling The Cotlook A Index declined to 94.60, reflecting additional weakness in benchmark physical cotton values. 5. The Adjusted World Price Declined The AWP fell 59 points to 68.92 cents per pound, adding to the evidence of weaker pricing conditions. 6. Crude Oil Prices Declined Crude oil fell $1.34 per barrel, removing a potential supportive factor from the broader commodity complex. The Key Question Is Whether Shipments Can Translate Into New Demand The most important feature of the latest cotton data is the difference between sales and shipments. New 2026/27 sales were only: 71,231 RB while shipments reached: 142,078 RB That means shipments were almost twice the level of new sales during the reporting week. This creates a two-sided interpretation. The positive interpretation is that previously booked cotton continues to move at a healthy pace. The negative interpretation is that buyers are currently committing to significantly less new business than the volume being shipped. For the market, the next question is therefore whether export sales begin catching up with the current shipment pace. A sustained improvement in new commitments would provide a stronger demand signal. Conversely, continued weak sales could reinforce concerns that current shipment strength is primarily the result of earlier bookings rather than accelerating fresh demand. Vietnam Remains Central to the Export Picture Vietnam featured prominently in both the sales and shipment data. The country purchased 28,200 RB in the latest 2026/27 sales report and accounted for 44,600 RB of shipments. This makes Vietnam an important market to monitor in the coming reports. Continued Vietnamese buying would help support the export demand picture. A reduction in purchases, particularly if accompanied by weaker buying from other major textile-producing countries, could place additional pressure on US cotton export expectations. The Futures Curve Remains Under Pressure The latest settlements show: October 2026: 78.41 cents December 2026: 82.17 cents March 2027: 84.81 cents All three contracts declined by more than 200 points. The structure of prices also shows higher values further along the curve, with March 2027 trading above the nearby October and December contracts. That structure will remain important as traders assess the transition from the current crop into the new crop. The market will be watching whether nearby weakness begins to spread further into deferred contracts or whether longer-dated prices begin finding greater support. What Traders Are Watching Next The major cotton-market catalysts include: USDA weekly Export Sales 2026/27 new-crop sales 2027/28 forward commitments Weekly export shipments Vietnamese cotton demand Chinese cotton demand ICE-certified stocks Cotlook A Index Adjusted World Price The Seam physical prices Crude oil prices US dollar movements US crop conditions Harvest progress Global textile demand Global cotton inventories Weather across major producing regions The most immediate focus will be whether the next Export Sales reports show an improvement in new-crop commitments. Currency Hedger View Cotton is a globally traded commodity, meaning currency movements can materially influence the effective price paid by international buyers and the competitiveness of exporters. US cotton is predominantly priced in US dollars, while textile manufacturers and commodity buyers may generate revenues or hold operating costs in other currencies. A move in the US dollar can therefore change the effective local-currency cost of cotton independently of movements in the underlying futures price. For example, a buyer whose operating currency weakens against the dollar could face a higher effective cotton cost even if ICE cotton futures remain unchanged. This creates a combined exposure: Cotton price risk + USD exchange-rate risk. For cotton merchants, textile manufacturers, exporters and international buyers, managing the currency component can therefore be an important part of managing the overall commodity exposure. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group Ltd, focuses on foreign-exchange exposure and currency-risk management for businesses operating across international markets. Today Markets View Cotton is facing a market of conflicting signals. Futures are under significant pressure, new-crop export sales remain relatively weak, the Cotlook A Index and Adjusted World Price have declined, and crude oil prices have fallen. At the same time, physical shipments are running 17.91% above last year and ICE-certified stocks have declined by 1,313 bales. The central issue for traders is therefore whether the strong shipment pace can translate into stronger forward sales. For now, the futures market appears to be placing greater weight on the weakness in fresh export commitments than on the stronger physical shipment figures. The next series of USDA Export Sales reports should provide an important indication of whether this divergence is temporary or represents a broader change in international cotton demand. “Cotton is currently caught between strong physical shipments and weak new-crop commitments. The 17.91% increase in shipments provides evidence of ongoing demand, but the relatively low level of fresh sales is keeping pressure on futures. The next export reports will be important in determining whether buyers return to the market or whether the recent weakness continues.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 18, 2026

Cattle Futures Slide as Border Reopening Adds Supply Pressure Ahead of USDA Report

Today Markets Analysis Live cattle futures fell sharply on Thursday, while feeder cattle also posted substantial losses as traders reacted to the planned reopening of the Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing and positioned ahead of Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report. Live cattle futures declined between $2.80 and $3.95, while feeder cattle futures dropped between $3.55 and $5.27. Cash cattle trade was reported at $350-$355 dressed in the North, with live trade around $222-$223 and some bids reaching $224 in the South. The Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange auction offered 1,514 head, but recorded no sales despite bids of $222-$223. The major catalyst behind the futures weakness was the USDA announcement that the Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing is scheduled to reopen next Thursday. The reopening could improve cattle flows and alter the balance of supply available to U.S. feedlots and processors. Meanwhile, USDA Export Sales showed 14,155 tonnes of beef sales for 2026 during the week ending September 10, the highest level in five weeks. However, shipments were only 9,881 tonnes, the lowest weekly total in a year. The market is also awaiting Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report. August placements are expected to be down 3.3%, while marketings are projected to decline 4%. September 1 cattle-on-feed inventories are estimated to be 1.7% above the same period last year. The result is a cattle market facing competing forces: tight slaughter numbers and reduced placements versus increased potential supply from border reopening, weaker beef shipments and uncertainty surrounding feedlot inventories. Cattle Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalOct 26 Live Cattle$215.650Daily move-$2.800Dec 26 Live Cattle$216.250Daily move-$3.950Sep 26 Feeder Cattle$334.825Daily move-$3.650Oct 26 Feeder Cattle$324.375Daily move-$5.275Northern cash cattle$350-$355 dressedSouthern live cattle$222-$223Beef export sales14,155 MT — 5-week highBeef shipments9,881 MT — 1-year lowBorder crossingSanta Teresa reopening next ThursdaySep 1 cattle on feedEstimated +1.7% YoYAug placementsEstimated -3.3% YoYAug marketingsEstimated -4% YoY Why Cattle Futures Are Falling The immediate catalyst was the announcement that the Santa Teresa border crossing is scheduled to reopen. The border is important to the North American cattle supply chain, and the reopening could improve the movement of cattle into the United States. That creates a potential increase in available supply and has therefore placed pressure on futures. The market was already showing weakness before Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report. With September 1 inventories expected to be higher than last year, traders are assessing whether feedlot supplies could remain sufficiently large to maintain slaughter levels despite lower recent marketings. At the same time, cash cattle prices remain historically elevated, creating an important divergence between the physical market and futures. Cash Cattle Remains Firm Despite the sharp futures decline, cash cattle remained relatively firm. Northern dressed trade was reported at $350-$355, while Southern live trade was around $222-$223, with some bids reaching $224. However, the Fed Cattle Exchange auction produced no transactions from the 1,514 head offered. The lack of completed sales provides limited confirmation of where the broader cash market is heading. The relationship between cash prices and futures will therefore remain important. If cash cattle continues holding firm while futures decline, the market could be signalling expectations for weaker prices further forward rather than immediate physical weakness. Beef Demand Provides a Mixed Signal USDA Export Sales provided an important positive signal on demand. Beef sales reached 14,155 tonnes, the highest weekly level in five weeks. That suggests international demand remains active. However, shipments were considerably weaker. Only 9,881 tonnes were shipped during the week, the lowest weekly total in a year. That creates an unusual combination: Strong new sales commitments + weak physical shipments. Traders will therefore need to determine whether the higher sales figure translates into stronger shipments in the coming weeks. If it does, export demand could provide additional support to cattle prices. If shipments remain depressed, the recent increase in sales could prove less supportive than the headline figure suggests. USDA Cattle on Feed Report Is the Next Major Catalyst Friday's Cattle on Feed report could significantly influence cattle futures. Current expectations point toward: August placements: -3.3% August marketings: -4% September 1 cattle on feed: +1.7% Lower placements are potentially supportive for the longer-term supply outlook because fewer cattle are entering feedlots. However, a higher overall on-feed inventory suggests that available supplies remain substantial. Marketings are also expected to decline. The report could therefore create volatility depending on how the actual figures compare with expectations. A smaller-than-expected inventory could strengthen concerns about future beef supplies. A larger-than-expected inventory could reinforce the bearish pressure already visible in futures. Slaughter Numbers Remain Below Last Year USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 107,000 head on Thursday, bringing the weekly total to approximately 420,000 head. The weekly figure was substantially higher than the previous week because of the holiday adjustment. However, it remained 43,870 head below the same week last year. That is an important supply-side signal. Lower slaughter relative to last year can limit near-term beef production and potentially support wholesale beef prices. But wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker on Thursday. Wholesale Beef Prices Are Falling The afternoon boxed-beef report showed additional pressure. Choice boxed beef declined $3.66 to $372.15, while Select fell $2.69 to $351.88. The decline indicates that wholesale beef values are currently losing momentum despite relatively constrained slaughter. If boxed-beef prices continue falling, processors could face reduced margins, potentially increasing pressure throughout the cattle complex. The relationship between boxed beef, packer margins and cash cattle will therefore be an important indicator for the next phase of the market. Bullish Sentiment 1. Lower Cattle Placements August placements are expected to decline 3.3% from a year earlier. Reduced placements can tighten future market-ready cattle supplies. 2. Cattle Slaughter Remains Below Last Year Weekly slaughter is currently 43,870 head below the comparable week last year. Reduced slaughter can constrain beef production. 3. Beef Export Sales Reached a Five-Week High The latest USDA report showed 14,155 tonnes of beef sales, the highest weekly level in five weeks. That provides evidence that international demand remains active. 4. Cash Cattle Prices Remain Elevated Northern dressed cattle traded around $350-$355, while Southern live cattle traded around $222-$223. Firm cash prices could eventually provide support to futures if the physical market remains resilient. 5. Lower Future Supply Could Become Important If placements remain below previous-year levels, the reduction in animals entering feedlots could eventually translate into tighter supplies of market-ready cattle. Bearish Sentiment 1. Border Reopening Could Increase Supply The planned reopening of the Santa Teresa border crossing could improve cattle flows into the United States. That could increase available supplies and reduce some of the scarcity premium currently reflected in the market. 2. Futures Fell Sharply Live cattle declined as much as $3.95, while feeder cattle dropped more than $5 in the October contract. The broad-based decline indicates significant selling pressure. 3. Cattle on Feed Inventories Are Expected to Increase September 1 cattle-on-feed inventories are estimated to be 1.7% higher than last year. A larger inventory could provide additional supply pressure. 4. Beef Shipments Fell to a One-Year Low Weekly beef shipments were only 9,881 tonnes, the lowest total in a year. If weak shipments persist, international demand may provide less support to the market. 5. Boxed Beef Prices Are Declining Choice and Select boxed beef prices both fell on Thursday. Continued weakness in wholesale beef could place pressure on packer margins and eventually filter through to cash cattle. The Border Reopening Could Reshape the Supply Picture The Santa Teresa reopening is particularly important because the cattle market has been operating under significant supply constraints. Additional cross-border flows could change that balance. The effect will depend on the speed and scale of cattle movement following the reopening. If supplies increase substantially, feedlots could gain additional flexibility when sourcing animals. If flows remain limited, the psychological impact on futures could prove larger than the actual physical impact. For traders, the key issue is therefore not simply whether the border reopens, but how much additional cattle supply reaches the U.S. market afterward. Cash Prices and Futures Are Sending Different Signals One of the most important features of the current market is the divergence between cash and futures. Cash cattle remain around: $222-$224 live while October live cattle futures settled at: $215.65 That spread indicates that futures are pricing in a degree of caution about the forward market. The difference could reflect expectations surrounding: Border reopening Feedlot inventories Beef demand Boxed-beef prices Friday's Cattle on Feed report Seasonal changes in cattle supplies The next several sessions should provide a clearer indication of whether the futures discount is justified by changing fundamentals. What Traders Are Watching Next The major cattle-market catalysts include: Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report September 1 cattle-on-feed inventory August placements August marketings Santa Teresa border reopening Cash cattle prices Fed Cattle Exchange results Weekly slaughter levels Choice boxed beef prices Select boxed beef prices Beef export sales Beef export shipments Packer margins Feeder cattle supplies Corn and feed costs The relationship between feed costs and feeder cattle will also remain important. Higher feed costs can reduce feedlot profitability, while lower feed costs can support demand for feeder cattle. Currency Hedger View Cattle producers, feedlots, processors and exporters can face both commodity-price risk and foreign-exchange risk. The U.S. cattle market is primarily priced in dollars, but the broader North American supply chain involves cross-border transactions. Currency movements can therefore affect the effective cost of cattle, feed, meat and other inputs when transactions involve different currencies. For international meat buyers, a stronger U.S. dollar can increase the local-currency cost of U.S. beef even if the underlying cattle price remains unchanged. For exporters, the relationship can work in the opposite direction depending on the currency in which revenues and costs are generated. This creates a combined exposure: Cattle price + beef price + USD exchange-rate risk. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group Ltd, focuses on foreign-exchange exposure and currency-risk management for businesses operating across international markets. Currency Hedger Today Markets View The cattle market is entering an important period of price discovery. Thursday's futures decline reflects growing concern that the planned reopening of the Santa Teresa border crossing could increase available cattle supplies, while Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report could provide another major catalyst. At the same time, the physical market remains relatively firm. Cash cattle are holding around $222-$224 live, placements are expected to decline, slaughter remains below last year's level and beef export sales have reached a five-week high. Against that, on-feed inventories are expected to be higher, beef shipments have fallen to a one-year low, boxed-beef prices are declining and the border reopening could improve cattle availability. The market is therefore balancing tight current supply conditions against expectations of potentially greater future availability. The USDA report and the subsequent response in cash cattle will be particularly important in determining whether Thursday's futures decline develops into a broader trend or proves to be a reaction to the immediate supply headlines. “The cattle market is approaching a critical supply test. Cash prices remain firm and placements are expected to decline, but the planned border reopening and higher on-feed inventories are changing expectations for future availability. Friday's USDA report could provide the next major signal for whether traders continue pricing in tighter supplies or shift toward a more balanced market.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 18, 2026

Wheat Prices Extend Losses as Export Demand Weakens and Black Sea Risks Shift

Today Markets Analysis Wheat futures remained under pressure on Thursday, with all three major U.S. wheat markets closing lower as export demand remained below last year's levels and traders assessed changing risks around Black Sea supplies. Chicago SRW wheat futures fell between 3¾ and 6¾ cents, while KC HRW contracts declined 5 to 8½ cents. Minneapolis spring wheat futures also finished lower, losing between 1 and 3½ cents. The weakness came despite signs that geopolitical disruptions are continuing to affect Black Sea wheat flows. USDA Export Sales data showed 325,935 tonnes of U.S. wheat sales for the 2026/27 marketing year during the week ending September 10. Although that represented a three-week high, sales remained 14.65% below the same week last year. The Philippines was the largest buyer with 189,600 tonnes, followed by Mexico with 70,300 tonnes and South Korea with 51,500 tonnes. Meanwhile, Turkey proposed an agreement aimed at ending strikes affecting Black Sea shipping. No response to the proposal had been reported, leaving uncertainty around the potential impact on regional wheat exports. SovEcon estimates combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports between July and September at approximately 8 million tonnes, compared with 16.4 million tonnes during the same period last year. The wheat market is therefore facing competing forces: weaker U.S. export demand and pressure from global supply availability versus significantly reduced Black Sea export flows and ongoing geopolitical risk. Wheat Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalDec 26 CBOT Wheat$7.27/bushelCBOT daily move-3¾ centsMar 27 CBOT Wheat$7.43/bushelDec 26 KC HRW Wheat$7.94½/bushelDec 26 Minneapolis Wheat$7.53½/bushelU.S. wheat export sales325,935 MTYoY export sales14.65% below last yearLargest buyerPhilippines — 189,600 MTRussia + Ukraine Jul-Sep exportsEstimated 8 MMTPrevious-year comparison16.4 MMTBlack Sea situationTurkey proposes deal to end strikes Why Wheat Prices Are Falling Wheat futures extended their declines on Thursday as traders focused on relatively soft U.S. export demand. The latest Export Sales report showed 325,935 tonnes of wheat commitments for 2026/27. Although the figure was the highest in three weeks, it remained significantly below the comparable period last year. That creates a demand-side headwind for U.S. wheat. The Philippines accounted for more than half of the weekly purchases, while Mexico and South Korea were also significant buyers. The figures suggest that international demand remains present, but the pace of U.S. sales is not currently matching last year's levels. At the same time, traders are assessing whether geopolitical disruption in the Black Sea will ultimately reduce global availability enough to offset softer U.S. demand. Black Sea Supply Remains the Key Bullish Factor The biggest potential source of upside risk remains the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine are two of the world's most important wheat-exporting regions, meaning disruption to shipments can have a significant impact on global prices. SovEcon's estimate of approximately 8 million tonnes of combined Russian and Ukrainian exports between July and September compares with 16.4 million tonnes during the same period last year. That represents a substantial reduction in regional export volumes. The reasons behind the decline include ongoing geopolitical disruption and restrictions affecting Black Sea shipping. For wheat traders, the critical question is whether these lower export flows become a temporary disruption or develop into a more persistent reduction in global availability. Turkey's Proposal Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty Turkey has proposed an agreement intended to end strikes affecting Black Sea shipping. The proposal could become an important development for wheat markets if it results in a meaningful improvement in shipping conditions. However, no response to the proposal had been reported. This means the market does not yet have confirmation that Black Sea trade will return to normal. If shipping restrictions ease, additional Russian and Ukrainian wheat could become available to international buyers. That could increase global competition and place further pressure on U.S. wheat prices. If disruptions persist, however, concerns about global availability could return to the forefront. U.S. Export Demand Remains a Major Test U.S. wheat exporters are facing an increasingly competitive global market. The latest sales figure of 325,935 tonnes was encouraging on a weekly basis because it represented a three-week high. However, the year-on-year comparison remains weaker. Sales were 14.65% below the same week last year, highlighting the challenge facing U.S. exporters. The market will therefore be watching subsequent USDA reports closely. A sustained improvement in weekly sales could provide support to wheat futures. Conversely, continued underperformance against last year's export pace would reinforce the bearish demand argument. Bullish Sentiment 1. Black Sea Export Disruptions Reduced Russian and Ukrainian exports could tighten global availability. The estimated 8 million tonnes of combined July-September exports is substantially below the 16.4 million tonnes recorded during the same period last year. 2. Geopolitical Risk Remains Elevated The continuation of strikes affecting Black Sea shipping creates uncertainty around the reliability of major wheat-export routes. Any escalation could quickly increase risk premiums. 3. Potential Shipping Restrictions If Black Sea shipping remains disrupted, international buyers may need to source additional wheat from alternative origins. That could provide support for U.S. and other competing exporters. 4. Turkey's Diplomatic Initiative Could Highlight the Scale of the Problem The proposal to end Black Sea strikes demonstrates that restoring shipping stability remains an important regional issue. The market will be watching closely for any developments. 5. Export Sales Have Improved Sequentially Although still below last year's level, the latest U.S. wheat sales figure represented a three-week high. A continuation of that improvement could provide a more supportive demand signal. Bearish Sentiment 1. U.S. Export Sales Remain Below Last Year The latest 325,935-tonne figure was 14.65% below the comparable period last year. That indicates weaker year-on-year demand for U.S. wheat. 2. Wheat Futures Are Falling Across All Three Exchanges Chicago SRW, KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat all closed lower. Broad weakness across the complex indicates that the pressure is not isolated to a single wheat variety. 3. Black Sea Shipping Could Improve If Turkey's proposal results in an agreement to end strikes, shipping conditions could improve. That could allow additional Russian and Ukrainian wheat to reach international markets. 4. Global Competition Remains Strong U.S. wheat must compete with supplies from Russia, Ukraine and other major exporting nations. If Black Sea exports recover, U.S. exporters could face additional competitive pressure. 5. Demand Has Yet to Provide a Strong Confirmation Signal The latest export-sales report was better than the previous two weeks but remains below last year's pace. Until demand accelerates more decisively, rallies could struggle to maintain momentum. The Black Sea Is Creating a Supply-Demand Imbalance The wheat market is currently being pulled in two different directions. On one side: Lower Black Sea exports → tighter potential global availability On the other: Weaker U.S. export demand → greater pressure on American wheat prices This creates an important distinction between global supply risk and U.S. export competitiveness. The Black Sea disruption is bullish for global wheat availability concerns, but it does not automatically translate into stronger U.S. prices. U.S. wheat needs to attract additional international buyers for the bullish supply story to translate into sustained price appreciation. What Traders Are Watching Next The next important wheat-market catalysts include: USDA weekly Export Sales Russian wheat export volumes Ukrainian wheat shipments Black Sea shipping conditions Turkey's proposed agreement Geopolitical developments affecting grain routes Global wheat export competition U.S. crop conditions Harvest progress International tender activity CBOT-KC-Minneapolis price spreads Currency movements affecting exporter competitiveness The reaction of international buyers will be particularly important. If Black Sea disruptions persist and buyers increasingly turn toward U.S. wheat, export demand could improve. If shipping conditions normalise, Russian and Ukrainian supplies could regain market share. Currency Hedger View Wheat demonstrates how closely commodity markets and foreign exchange markets are connected. Because international agricultural commodities are predominantly traded in U.S. dollars, movements in the dollar can influence the effective cost of wheat for buyers using other currencies. A stronger dollar can make U.S. agricultural exports more expensive for international purchasers, potentially affecting the competitiveness of U.S. suppliers against exporters from Russia, Ukraine, Europe and other producing regions. For agricultural businesses, exporters and importers, this creates two interconnected risks: Commodity price risk + currency risk. A company purchasing wheat in dollars while generating revenue in another currency may face increased costs from both a rising wheat price and an unfavourable exchange-rate movement. Conversely, exporters receiving U.S.-dollar revenue while paying operating expenses in local currencies may have a different currency exposure. Octalas Group Ltd's Currency Hedger division focuses on foreign-exchange exposure, international payments and currency-risk management for businesses operating across multiple currencies. Currency Hedger Today Markets View Wheat remains caught between weak U.S. export demand and significant Black Sea supply risks. The latest futures declines indicate that traders are currently giving greater weight to the softer U.S. demand picture. However, the reduction in combined Russian and Ukrainian exports remains an important bullish consideration. The proposed Turkish agreement could become a major catalyst. If Black Sea shipping conditions improve, additional wheat supplies could return to international markets and increase competitive pressure on U.S. exporters. If disruptions continue, the market could refocus on the substantial reduction in Black Sea export volumes and the potential tightening of global availability. For now, the wheat market remains highly sensitive to the interaction between export demand, Black Sea logistics and geopolitical developments. “Wheat is currently trading between two competing narratives. U.S. export demand remains below last year's pace, creating pressure on futures, while the sharp reduction in Russian and Ukrainian shipments keeps a significant supply-risk premium in the background. The direction of Black Sea trade could ultimately determine which force dominates.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 18, 2026

Corn Slides Toward $5.30 as Weak U.S. Sales and Falling Oil Weigh on Prices

Today Markets Analysis Corn futures moved lower on Thursday, with prices falling between 1 and 4¾ cents as weaker U.S. export demand, lower crude oil prices and the approaching harvest placed pressure on the market. December 2026 corn futures closed at approximately $5.30½ per bushel, down 3¾ cents, while March 2027 corn fell 4¼ cents to $5.44½. May 2027 futures declined 4½ cents to $5.50¾. The latest move highlights a market facing increasing seasonal supply pressure while export demand remains below last year's pace. U.S. corn export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year totalled approximately 1.027 million tonnes during the week ending September 10. Although the volume remains substantial, it was 16.6% below the comparable week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer, purchasing approximately 626,000 tonnes, while Japan accounted for another 150,200 tonnes. International demand was nevertheless evident elsewhere. Several South Korean importers purchased approximately 260,000 tonnes of corn in an overnight tender, although the origins of the supplies were not immediately identified. Crude oil also declined by approximately $1.34 per barrel, creating an additional headwind for corn through the energy and biofuel markets. The result is a corn market being pulled between international buying interest and potential export demand on one side, and weaker U.S. sales, lower energy prices and seasonal harvest pressure on the other. Corn Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalDecember 2026 Corn$5.30½/bushelDecember daily move-3¾ centsMarch 2027 Corn$5.44½/bushelMay 2027 Corn$5.50¾/bushelNearby Cash Corn$4.85¼/bushel2026/27 weekly export sales1.027 MMTYear-on-year comparison-16.6%Top buyerMexico — 626,000 MTJapan150,200 MTSouth Korean tender260,000 MTCrude oil-$1.34Harvest outlookIncreasing seasonal supply pressure Why Corn Prices Are Falling The primary pressure on corn comes from a combination of weaker export sales and increasing expectations of seasonal U.S. supply. The latest USDA export-sales figures showed 1.027 million tonnes of 2026/27 corn sales. That is still a significant volume, but the year-on-year comparison is less encouraging. Sales were approximately 16.6% below the equivalent week last year, suggesting that international demand has not maintained the same pace seen during the previous marketing year. That creates a concern for traders entering the U.S. harvest period. If production is strong while export demand remains below last year's level, the market could face increasing pressure from growing available stocks. Mexico Remains a Major Buyer Mexico accounted for approximately 626,000 tonnes of the latest U.S. corn sales. That represents more than half of the week's reported export volume. Mexico remains an important destination for U.S. agricultural exports, making its continued participation an important source of demand for American corn producers. Japan purchased another 150,200 tonnes, providing additional support. However, the overall export figure remains below last year's comparable level. This means traders will be watching whether Mexican and Japanese demand can accelerate sufficiently to offset the broader year-on-year slowdown. South Korea Adds Another Demand Signal The South Korean market provided a separate bullish signal. Several South Korean importers purchased a combined 260,000 tonnes of corn through an overnight tender. The origins were not announced, meaning it is not yet clear how much, if any, of that demand will ultimately translate into U.S. purchases. Nevertheless, the tender demonstrates that international buyers remain active in the global corn market. For traders, the question is whether additional tenders from Asian buyers will develop into sustained demand or remain focused on alternative origins. Crude Oil Adds Pressure Crude oil prices declined by approximately $1.34 per barrel during the session. That matters for corn because the agricultural and energy markets are closely connected through the U.S. ethanol industry. Corn is the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol production. Lower crude oil prices can reduce the economic attractiveness of ethanol relative to conventional gasoline, potentially affecting expectations for corn demand from the biofuel sector. The relationship is not one-to-one, but energy prices remain an important component of the broader corn demand equation. The Harvest Is Becoming the Main Supply Story The approaching U.S. harvest is another major factor. As combines move into the fields, physical corn supplies should increasingly reach elevators, processors and exporters. That seasonal increase in availability can create pressure on futures prices, particularly if farmers begin selling newly harvested supplies at the same time. The market therefore needs strong demand to absorb the incoming crop. If export sales accelerate, ethanol demand remains firm and domestic consumption stays robust, harvest pressure could be absorbed relatively quickly. If demand disappoints, the market could face greater inventory accumulation. Bullish Sentiment 1. Mexico Remains a Strong Buyer Mexico purchased approximately 626,000 tonnes in the latest reporting week, accounting for the largest share of U.S. corn export sales. 2. South Korean Importers Bought 260,000 Tonnes The overnight South Korean tender provides evidence that international buyers continue to seek significant volumes of corn. 3. Japan Provides Additional Demand Japan purchased approximately 150,200 tonnes, adding another major importer to the U.S. demand picture. 4. International Feed Demand Remains Important Corn remains a critical feed grain for the global livestock industry. Continued demand from major importers could help offset some of the seasonal pressure created by the U.S. harvest. 5. Lower Prices Could Encourage Additional Buying The recent decline could eventually attract price-sensitive importers and commercial buyers looking to secure supplies at more competitive levels. Bearish Sentiment 1. U.S. Export Sales Are Down 16.6% Year on Year The most significant bearish signal is the slower pace of U.S. export demand. Weekly sales of 1.027 MMT were 16.6% below the comparable week last year. 2. Harvest Pressure Is Increasing The arrival of the U.S. crop will increase physical availability and could encourage additional farmer selling. 3. Crude Oil Prices Are Falling The $1.34 decline in crude oil adds pressure through the ethanol and broader energy markets. 4. Futures Remain Under Pressure December corn fell 3¾ cents, while March and May contracts declined even further. The weakness across several delivery months indicates that the pressure is not isolated to the nearby contract. 5. Strong Production Could Increase Stocks If U.S. yields prove strong while export demand remains below last year's pace, inventories could build and place further pressure on prices. The Export Market Is Becoming Critical Corn now faces an important demand test. The U.S. is entering the period when the physical supply picture becomes clearer, making export demand increasingly important for determining the balance between production and stocks. Mexico is providing strong demand, Japan remains active and South Korean buyers are seeking additional supplies. But the overall U.S. export-sales figure remains below last year's level. That creates the central question for the market: Can new international buying accelerate quickly enough to absorb the incoming U.S. crop? Corn and the Energy Market The relationship between corn and crude oil deserves particular attention. U.S. ethanol production creates an important source of structural corn demand. When crude oil prices decline, however, expectations for fuel-market margins can change. This does not necessarily translate directly into lower corn demand, but it can influence the economics surrounding ethanol production and therefore the amount of corn ultimately consumed by the biofuel industry. For corn traders, the combination of: Lower crude oil + approaching harvest + slower exports creates a particularly important near-term bearish combination. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major corn catalysts include: Weekly USDA export sales U.S. corn harvest progress U.S. yield estimates Mexico's import demand Chinese corn demand South Korean tenders Japanese purchases U.S. ethanol production Ethanol margins Crude oil prices U.S. dollar direction South American crop prospects Global feed demand U.S. ending-stock estimates The most important near-term variables will likely be harvest progress and export demand. Currency Hedger View Corn is another commodity where the underlying market price is only one part of the equation for international buyers and sellers. Because corn is predominantly traded in U.S. dollars, movements in the dollar can materially change the effective cost for importers purchasing U.S. supplies. For an overseas feed producer, livestock operator or agricultural importer, the exposure can therefore involve two separate variables: Corn price risk + USD currency risk. A weaker dollar can make U.S. corn more competitive internationally, potentially supporting export demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar can increase the local-currency cost of U.S. corn even when the underlying futures price remains unchanged. Octalas Group Ltd operates Currency Hedger as its foreign-exchange and currency-risk division, providing commentary on FX exposure, international payments and hedging considerations for businesses operating across global markets. Today Markets View Corn is entering a more challenging period as the U.S. harvest approaches while export demand remains below last year's pace. The latest 1.027 MMT in 2026/27 sales demonstrates that international demand remains substantial, with Mexico accounting for 626,000 tonnes and Japan purchasing another 150,200 tonnes. The South Korean tender for 260,000 tonnes provides an additional indication that global buyers remain active. However, the overall U.S. sales figure was still 16.6% below the comparable week last year, while crude oil declined by $1.34 and the approaching harvest threatens to increase physical availability. The market therefore faces a straightforward fundamental test: If export demand accelerates and international buyers continue securing large volumes, corn could find stronger support. If harvest supplies arrive faster than demand, seasonal pressure could intensify. “Corn is entering a critical supply-demand window. International buyers remain active, but U.S. export sales are running below last year's pace while the harvest approaches and crude oil prices weaken. The ability of export demand and ethanol consumption to absorb the incoming crop will be central to the next major move.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 18, 2026

Soybeans Hold Near $13.20 as China Demand Surges but Heavy Rains Threaten Harvest

Today Markets Analysis Soybean futures finished mixed on Thursday after correcting from earlier intraday strength, as exceptionally strong U.S. export sales and renewed Chinese buying competed with concerns over heavy rainfall across key producing states. November 2026 soybeans closed at approximately $13.19¾ per bushel, down ¾ cent, while January 2027 futures slipped ¼ cent to $13.37. March 2027 soybeans bucked the trend, gaining ½ cent to $13.45¾. The relatively narrow price movements mask a much more important fundamental development: U.S. soybean export demand is running substantially ahead of last year's pace, with China accounting for more than 875,000 tonnes of new purchases in the latest reporting week. At the same time, weather could slow the arrival of the new crop. NOAA's seven-day forecast continues to indicate heavy rainfall across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas, extending eastward through Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. That could restrict early harvest progress and potentially delay the movement of freshly harvested beans into the market. The result is a soybean market being pulled between strong export demand and potential harvest delays on one side, and seasonal supply pressure, weak domestic meal demand and continued uncertainty over the size of the U.S. crop on the other. Soybean Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalNovember 2026 Soybeans$13.19¾/bushelNovember daily move-¾ centJanuary 2027 Soybeans$13.37/bushelMarch 2027 Soybeans$13.45¾/bushel2026/27 export sales1.7 MMT in latest weekYear-on-year comparisonNearly double the same week last yearChina purchases875,300 MTUnknown destinations218,900 MTMexico purchases138,600 MTU.S. weatherHeavy rain forecast across major growing statesHarvest outlookPotentially delayedSoymeal+$3.60Soybean oilLower Why Soybeans Are Holding Near $13.20 The soybean market remains relatively resilient despite the approach of the U.S. harvest season. Normally, the arrival of a large new crop creates seasonal pressure as farmers begin harvesting and commercial supplies increase. This year, however, export demand is providing an important counterweight. USDA data showed U.S. exporters sold approximately 1.7 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2026/27 marketing year during the week of September 10. That was nearly twice the volume recorded during the comparable week last year. Even more significant was the composition of those sales. China purchased approximately 875,300 tonnes, making it the largest identifiable buyer during the reporting period. Mexico purchased another 138,600 tonnes, while approximately 218,900 tonnes were sold to unknown destinations. The scale of Chinese buying is particularly important because China is the world's largest soybean importer and a critical source of demand for U.S. producers. China Returns as a Major Demand Driver China's participation in the latest export-sales report is one of the most important bullish developments for soybeans. The country accounted for more than half of the reported 2026/27 soybean purchases during the week. That provides evidence of substantial forward demand for U.S. soybeans heading into the new marketing year. The market will now be watching whether this represents the beginning of a sustained acceleration in Chinese purchases or simply a period of concentrated buying. For soybean prices, the distinction is important. If Chinese buying continues at elevated levels, export demand could absorb a meaningful portion of the incoming U.S. crop. If purchases slow again, the market could become increasingly focused on domestic production and the size of stocks available after harvest. Weather Could Slow the U.S. Harvest Weather is providing another source of support. NOAA's seven-day forecast calls for heavy rainfall across a large section of the U.S. Midwest and Plains. The affected areas include: South Dakota Nebraska Kansas Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin Illinois Indiana Ohio The timing is significant. The U.S. soybean harvest is approaching, meaning persistent rainfall could restrict fieldwork and delay early harvesting. A slower harvest can temporarily limit the flow of physical soybeans into the commercial market. However, rainfall does not automatically translate into crop damage. The ultimate impact will depend on rainfall intensity, duration, field conditions and how quickly farmers can return to harvesting once conditions improve. Soymeal Provides Additional Support Soymeal futures moved sharply higher, gaining approximately $3.60. That is important because soybean processors generate both soybean meal and soybean oil when crushing beans. Stronger meal prices can improve crush economics and provide additional incentive for processors to maintain soybean demand. However, the latest export data showed soybean meal bookings of approximately 210,507 tonnes, toward the lower end of the reported estimate range. Of that total, approximately 23,673 tonnes were for the current marketing year and 186,834 tonnes were for 2026/27. The contrast between strong whole-bean exports and more moderate meal bookings is worth monitoring. Soybean Oil Moves in the Opposite Direction Soybean oil was weaker, with futures declining between approximately 13 and 52 points. Export bookings were also relatively limited. Soybean oil sales totalled approximately 4,372 tonnes, including a net reduction of 163 tonnes for 2025/26 and sales of 4,535 tonnes for 2026/27. This creates a mixed picture across the soybean complex. Soybeans → strong export demand Soymeal → higher prices Soybean oil → weaker That divergence suggests traders are assessing the different supply-and-demand fundamentals affecting each component of the crush market. Bullish Sentiment 1. Chinese Demand Is Strong China purchased approximately 875,300 tonnes of U.S. soybeans during the latest reporting week. That represents a substantial source of demand heading into the 2026/27 marketing year. 2. Export Sales Nearly Doubled Year on Year Total new soybean sales of approximately 1.7 MMT were nearly twice the volume recorded during the same week last year. That provides a significant demand signal for the U.S. market. 3. Heavy Rain Could Delay Harvest Large areas of the Midwest and Plains are facing significant rainfall over the next seven days. If field conditions deteriorate, early harvest progress could be delayed. 4. Soymeal Prices Are Rising Soymeal futures gained approximately $3.60, potentially supporting soybean crush economics and underlying demand for beans. 5. Strong Forward Demand Could Absorb New-Crop Supply If export sales remain elevated through the early stages of harvest, strong international demand could reduce some of the seasonal pressure normally associated with the arrival of the U.S. crop. Bearish Sentiment 1. Harvest Pressure Is Approaching The U.S. soybean harvest is approaching its seasonal acceleration. As more beans reach elevators and processors, physical availability is likely to increase. 2. Weather Does Not Necessarily Mean Crop Damage Although heavy rain could delay fieldwork, rainfall itself does not automatically reduce yields. If conditions improve quickly, farmers could potentially make rapid harvest progress. 3. Soybean Oil Is Weak Soybean oil prices declined despite strength in soybeans and soymeal. That indicates that demand across the soybean complex remains uneven. 4. Soymeal Export Bookings Are Moderate Soymeal sales of approximately 210,507 tonnes were toward the lower end of the reported estimate range. That suggests international demand for processed soybean products is not uniformly strong. 5. Seasonal Supply Remains a Major Risk The incoming U.S. crop could still generate substantial supply pressure. Even strong export demand may not be sufficient to prevent prices from weakening if production exceeds expectations and harvest-related selling accelerates. China Is the Key Demand Variable For soybean traders, China remains one of the most important variables. The latest export-sales data provide a clear bullish signal, but the market needs to determine whether the buying represents a sustained shift in demand. The next several weeks will therefore be critical. If Chinese purchases continue at elevated levels, the market could begin reassessing expectations for U.S. ending stocks. If the buying slows, attention is likely to return to the size and timing of the U.S. harvest. That creates an important tension: Strong Chinese demand → supportive versus Large U.S. harvest → potentially bearish Harvest Versus Exports The soybean market is entering a period where two major fundamental forces will collide. Supply Side U.S. harvest approaching Potentially large new crop Increasing physical availability Seasonal farmer selling Demand Side Strong 2026/27 export sales Significant Chinese purchases Mexican demand Stronger soybean meal prices The balance between these forces will determine whether soybean prices can maintain their current levels. What Traders Are Watching Next The next important soybean catalysts include: Chinese soybean purchases Weekly USDA export sales U.S. harvest progress NOAA weather forecasts Midwest rainfall U.S. crop yields Soybean export inspections Soymeal demand Soybean oil prices Crush margins U.S. dollar direction China's livestock-feed demand South American planting expectations U.S. ending-stock estimates The most important near-term question is whether exceptionally strong export demand can keep pace with the arrival of the U.S. harvest. Currency Hedger View Soybeans demonstrate the close relationship between agricultural commodities, international trade and foreign exchange. The United States sells soybeans into a highly competitive global market, meaning currency movements can influence the relative cost of U.S. agricultural exports for overseas buyers. A stronger U.S. dollar can make dollar-denominated soybeans more expensive for international purchasers, potentially affecting export competitiveness. For exporters, importers, agricultural processors and international commodity businesses, this creates an additional layer of currency exposure alongside the underlying commodity-price risk. The combination can be significant: Soybean price risk + USD currency risk = increased exposure to international purchasing costs and margins. Octalas Group Ltd operates Currency Hedger as its foreign-exchange and currency-risk division, providing commentary on FX exposure, international payments and hedging considerations. Today Markets View Soybeans are entering a critical period as exceptionally strong export demand collides with the approaching U.S. harvest. The latest USDA figures are clearly supportive, particularly with China purchasing approximately 875,300 tonnes and total 2026/27 soybean sales reaching around 1.7 MMT for the week. At the same time, heavy rainfall across major producing states could slow the initial harvest process and temporarily restrict the arrival of new-crop supplies. But the bullish case still faces an important test. The U.S. harvest is approaching, soybean oil remains weak and soybean meal bookings are relatively moderate. The key question is therefore whether China's renewed buying represents the beginning of sustained export demand or a concentrated burst of purchases ahead of the new crop. “Soybeans are entering a critical transition period. Strong Chinese buying and potentially slower harvest progress are providing support, but the arrival of the U.S. crop will test whether export demand can absorb new supply quickly enough. The next phase of the market will depend heavily on the interaction between Chinese purchases, U.S. harvest progress and the size of the incoming crop.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Commentary

September 17, 2026

Trade of The Day – OIL

Facts Brent crude futures (OIL) have pulled back from the local high of $110 seen on Friday, September 11, to around $104.3 at approximately 11:00 CET on Thursday, September 17. Donald Trump said the U.S. may be approaching the end of the war with Iran and confirmed that talks with Tehran are being conducted directly, without intermediaries. Saudi Aramco is working to bypass the damaged section of the 1,200-km East-West Pipeline and aims to restore around half of its capacity within days. Full operations are expected to be restored in approximately six weeks. According to an assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the war with Iran had cost the United States at least $38 billion through the end of July. Recommendation Short OIL at market price Take profit: $95.5 Stop loss: $110 View The prospect of renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations roughly six weeks before the U.S. congressional midterm elections may give Tehran an opportunity to negotiate more favorable terms for a potential agreement. The United States has already committed substantial financial resources to the war in the Middle East, while American households have also felt the economic cost through record fuel prices and, potentially, higher borrowing costs following the Fed’s latest rate hike. Against this backdrop, the political challenges facing Republicans, combined with the risk of the conflict spreading toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, appear to reduce the incentive for further escalation from current levels. All sides, including Iran, whose oil exports have been significantly disrupted, have already raised the stakes to economically painful levels. If Saudi Aramco succeeds in rapidly restoring the East-West Pipeline and the Houthis refrain from further attacks on critical energy infrastructure, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices could continue to decline. In the short term, this would shift the risk-reward balance toward further downside in oil prices. Oil futures are still up more than 40% from their local lows reached in late June. We therefore recommend a short position in OIL, with a target at $95.5 based on price-action methodology and a stop loss at the round $110 level, which coincides with the local highs from last Friday. Source: xStation5 Market Analysis & Disclaimer Prepared by: Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency HedgerDate and time of preparation: 17 September 2026, 13:33Date and time of publication: 17 September 2026, 13:48Intended audience: Readers, clients and prospective clients of Today Markets and Currency HedgerInformation sources: Publicly available market data, financial news agencies, commodity and financial-market exchanges, economic releases, company announcements and other sources considered reliableTime horizon: Until the relevant market conditions, technical levels or fundamental factors materially changeProjected date of actualisation: Unspecified The market information, analysis, commentary, forecasts and opinions contained in this publication have been prepared by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger using information and data obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Octalas Group Ltd, Today Markets and Currency Hedger do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information presented and accept no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon information contained herein, to the extent permitted by applicable law. Market forecasts, expectations and opinions are based on analysis of available information and a number of assumptions regarding economic, financial, political and market conditions. Such assumptions may prove to be incorrect, and actual market developments may differ materially from those described or anticipated. Nothing contained in this publication constitutes investment advice, financial advice, a personal recommendation, an offer, solicitation or invitation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in any financial instrument or investment product. The information is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, experience or particular circumstances of any individual reader. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Financial markets, including foreign exchange, commodities, equities, derivatives and other financial instruments, involve risk and prices can move rapidly. Readers should conduct their own independent research and, where appropriate, obtain advice from an appropriately authorised financial professional before making any investment or trading decision. Where this publication refers to Today Markets, it represents market news, research, analysis and commentary published for informational purposes. Where Currency Hedger is referenced, it represents commentary concerning foreign exchange, currency exposure, international payments and hedging-related topics. References to particular financial instruments, markets, companies, currencies or commodities should not be interpreted as a recommendation to transact in them. Octalas Group Ltd, Today Markets and Currency Hedger may have commercial interests or relationships with businesses, financial-service providers, technology providers or other market participants mentioned in their publications. Where relevant, such relationships or interests may create potential conflicts of interest. Appropriate measures are intended to be taken to ensure that published analysis and commentary are presented objectively and that commercial considerations do not determine the substance of market analysis. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author or contributors at the time of publication and may change without notice as market conditions develop. Readers should not assume that any information contained herein has been updated following publication. © 2026 Octalas Group Ltd. All rights reserved.Published on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger.

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September 17, 2026

Chart of the day – Gold rebounds 1.3% despite hawkish Fed stance

Gold is rebounding by more than 1.3% after the decline triggered by the Fed’s first rate hike in more than three years. Higher interest rates are usually negative for gold, which does not generate yield, but the market had already priced in the Fed move to some extent, so the reaction has remained relatively limited. The next direction for gold will depend primarily on how many additional Fed rate hikes the market begins to price in. Donald Trump publicly commented on the decision, saying that U.S. interest rates should fall to 1% and that the Fed should cut them immediately. The base-case scenario assumes one more rate hike this year, possibly in December, followed by a longer pause in the tightening cycle. However, falling oil prices could become the key factor. If crude continues to move lower, markets may quickly revise their expectations for future Fed policy. GOLD chart (H1, D1 timeframe) Looking at gold, the price has managed to move back above the 50-period exponential moving average, EMA50 (orange line), but the key hurdle remains the 200-period EMA200, which has capped the market since the beginning of September. This makes the $4,370 per ounce area the key short-term resistance level, while support remains around $4,250. Source: xStation5 The importance of the $4,370 per ounce area is also confirmed by the 200-period EMA200 (red line) on the daily chart, with the 50-period moving average also converging nearby. The RSI remains close to neutral levels, and although gold has pulled back from around $4,600, it is still up roughly 10% from this year’s low below $4,000 per ounce. A break above $4,370 could open the way toward the recent local highs near $4,575 per ounce, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the winter 2026 downward impulse is located. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 17, 2026

Nickel Rebounds From 8-Month Low

Today Markets Analysis Nickel traded around $16,230 per tonne, rebounding from its lowest level in eight months as the recent selloff attracted fresh buying interest. The move represents a technical recovery after the sharp decline, but the broader fundamentals remain challenging. Weak Chinese downstream demand continues to weigh on the nickel market, with nickel salt procurement and spot stockpiling subdued while some precursor producers have reduced operating rates. The supply picture is also creating additional pressure. Indonesia has revised its nickel ore benchmark price formula, sharply lowering the HPM for low-grade 1.2% nickel ore to approximately $24.89 per wet tonne, nearly half the previous level. Lower feedstock costs could improve the economics of high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations and encourage greater utilisation of lower-grade nickel reserves. At the same time, inventories remain elevated across the nickel supply chain, pointing to continued destocking and limiting the potential for the latest price rebound to develop into a sustained recovery. The nickel market is therefore facing a clear conflict between technical buying after an extended decline and persistent fundamental pressure from weak demand, high inventories and potentially lower production costs. Nickel Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalNickel priceAround $16,230/tonneRecent trendRebounding from 8-month lowChinese downstream demandWeakNickel salt procurementSubduedSpot stockpilingLimitedPrecursor producersSome reducing operating ratesIndonesian ore benchmarkHPM sharply reducedLow-grade 1.2% oreAround $24.89/wet tonneHPAL feedstock costsPotentially lowerNickel inventoriesElevatedSupply-chain activityOngoing destockingNear-term outlookFundamentally constrained Why Nickel Is Rebounding Nickel's move back toward $16,230 per tonne follows a significant selloff that took prices to their lowest level in eight months. The initial recovery appears to be attracting buying interest from traders looking to take advantage of lower prices. From a technical perspective, a prolonged decline can create conditions for short-term bargain hunting, particularly when prices reach multi-month lows. However, the fundamental backdrop has not changed sufficiently to confirm a broader reversal. Chinese downstream demand remains subdued, while elevated inventories indicate that the market is still working through excess material. That means the latest rebound should be viewed against a backdrop of technical recovery rather than confirmed fundamental tightening. China Remains a Major Demand Risk China remains central to the nickel outlook. Demand for nickel salts has remained weak, while spot stockpiling activity has also been subdued. Some precursor producers have responded by reducing operating rates, reflecting limited downstream demand and pressure on margins. This creates a difficult environment for nickel. Lower prices can encourage some buyers to return to the market, but if end-user demand remains weak, those purchases may simply represent short-term restocking rather than the beginning of a sustained demand recovery. For nickel bulls, a meaningful improvement in Chinese downstream activity will therefore be important. Indonesia Is Changing the Supply Equation Indonesia continues to play a critical role in global nickel supply. The country's revised nickel ore benchmark pricing formula has sharply reduced the HPM for low-grade 1.2% nickel ore to approximately $24.89 per wet tonne. The change could have significant implications for producers using lower-grade feedstock. Lower ore costs can improve the economics of HPAL processing and potentially encourage producers to make greater use of lower-grade reserves. That could increase the availability of nickel feedstock and place additional pressure on prices if downstream demand does not improve at the same time. The development therefore represents an important bearish consideration for the market. Bullish Sentiment 1. Technical Rebound From an 8-Month Low Nickel's decline to its lowest level in eight months has attracted fresh buying interest. The market may continue to see short-term technical support as traders reassess prices following the selloff. 2. Lower Prices Could Encourage Restocking If nickel remains at comparatively depressed levels, consumers could eventually become more willing to rebuild inventories. A sustained increase in physical buying would provide stronger evidence that demand is beginning to respond to lower prices. 3. Producer Operating Rates Are Being Reduced Some Chinese precursor producers have already reduced operating rates because of weak downstream conditions. If production cuts become more widespread, they could eventually help reduce excess supply. 4. Further Destocking Could Improve Market Balance Although high inventories are currently bearish, sustained inventory reductions would eventually tighten available material. The pace of destocking will therefore remain an important indicator for the market. Bearish Sentiment 1. Chinese Downstream Demand Remains Weak Nickel salt procurement and spot stockpiling remain subdued. Without stronger Chinese demand, the market could struggle to absorb existing inventories. 2. Indonesian Ore Costs Have Fallen Sharply The revised HPM formula has significantly reduced the benchmark price for low-grade nickel ore. Lower feedstock costs could improve the economics of HPAL production and encourage greater use of lower-grade reserves. 3. Inventories Remain Elevated High inventories across the nickel supply chain indicate that the market continues to work through excess material. This creates a significant obstacle to a sustained price recovery. 4. Continued Destocking Limits Immediate Demand Downstream users appear focused on using existing inventories rather than aggressively rebuilding stocks. That reduces the immediate physical demand impulse. 5. The Rebound Is Not Yet Supported by a Clear Fundamental Turnaround The latest price recovery has followed an extended decline, but there is limited evidence so far of a major improvement in the underlying supply-demand balance. Indonesia's Low-Cost Supply Advantage Indonesia's growing influence over global nickel production remains one of the most important structural factors for the market. The lower benchmark price for low-grade ore could make additional feedstock economically viable for processing facilities. For nickel prices, the concern is straightforward: Lower ore costs → improved processing economics → greater potential utilisation → additional supply pressure. This is particularly important while demand remains weak. If Indonesian producers can maintain or increase output while Chinese consumption remains subdued, the global market could remain oversupplied. Inventories Are Sending a Warning High inventories remain one of the clearest bearish signals for nickel. Large stocks provide consumers with a buffer against supply disruptions and reduce the urgency to purchase additional material. This can create a feedback loop: High inventories → weaker spot buying → lower operating rates → continued destocking → limited price recovery. The market needs to see a meaningful reduction in inventories before the current supply surplus begins to look less significant. Until then, rallies could continue to attract selling from participants focused on the underlying oversupply. The Key Question: Technical Recovery or Fundamental Reversal? Nickel's rebound from an eight-month low is significant, but the market now needs to determine whether the move represents the beginning of a broader recovery or simply a technical bounce. A sustainable recovery would likely require several factors to develop simultaneously: Stronger Chinese downstream demand Higher nickel salt procurement Increased spot stockpiling Rising precursor operating rates Continued inventory reductions Greater producer discipline Evidence that Indonesian supply growth is moderating Without those developments, the market could remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. What Traders Are Watching Next The next important nickel-market indicators include: Chinese nickel salt demand Chinese precursor operating rates Spot nickel purchasing Indonesian nickel ore pricing HPAL production economics Indonesian mine and processing output Global nickel inventories LME nickel stocks Downstream stainless-steel demand Battery-sector demand USD direction Global industrial activity Inventory trends will be particularly important. A sustained decline in stocks alongside improving Chinese demand would provide a stronger foundation for the recovery. Currency Hedger View Nickel is priced internationally in U.S. dollars, making currency movements an important secondary consideration for producers, manufacturers and international buyers. A stronger dollar can increase the effective cost of nickel for companies purchasing the metal in other currencies, potentially adding another layer of pressure to already weak physical demand. For producers, the relationship can be different. Mining and processing costs may be incurred in local currencies while revenues are linked to dollar-denominated commodity prices. This creates potential exposure to both commodity-price risk and foreign-exchange risk. For businesses with significant nickel purchases, sales or production costs across different currencies, managing the underlying FX exposure can therefore be an important part of the broader risk-management strategy. Currency Hedger, a contributor to Today Markets, focuses on international payments, foreign-exchange exposure and currency-hedging strategies for businesses operating across global markets. Today Markets View Nickel's recovery toward $16,230 per tonne provides some technical relief after the market reached an eight-month low, but the underlying fundamentals remain challenging. Weak Chinese downstream demand, elevated inventories and lower Indonesian feedstock costs continue to constrain the outlook, while reduced operating rates and the prospect of further destocking provide potential support. The key question is whether lower prices can eventually stimulate enough physical demand to absorb existing inventories. For now, the market remains caught between technical buying at depressed price levels and a fundamental backdrop still characterised by abundant supply and subdued demand. “Nickel's latest rebound demonstrates that lower prices are attracting buyers, but a technical recovery is not necessarily a fundamental turnaround. The next decisive signal will come from Chinese demand and inventory trends, while Indonesia's lower ore costs remain an important supply-side risk.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Currency Hedger — Contributor

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Markets

September 17, 2026

Steel Firms Up on Output Curb Pledge

Today Markets Analysis Steel rebar futures held above CNY 3,120 per ton on Thursday, remaining close to two-month highs as Chinese steelmakers pledged to curb production and reduce elevated inventories amid sharply deteriorating margins. The move comes as China's steel industry faces an increasingly difficult operating environment. The China Iron and Steel Association, together with 45 major steelmakers including China Baowu Steel Group, has urged producers across the industry to firmly implement output controls in an effort to bring down elevated inventories. Profitability has deteriorated sharply as high production costs collide with weak steel demand. Some producers have already reduced operations and scheduled maintenance, creating the possibility of tighter near-term supply. However, the demand outlook remains challenging. China's property market continues to act as a major drag on steel consumption, with new home prices falling again in August. The prolonged downturn in residential construction continues to weigh on one of the country's most important sources of steel demand. The result is a market caught between potentially tighter supply from production controls and persistently weak demand from China's property sector. Steel Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalSteel rebar futuresAbove CNY 3,120/tonRecent trendNear two-month highsChinese steelmakersOutput controls being encouragedMajor producers involved45 steelmakersInventoriesElevatedSteelmaker marginsSharply deterioratingProductionSome mills reducing operationsChina property marketContinued weaknessNew home pricesFalling in AugustNear-term supply outlookPotentially tighterDemand outlookWeak Why Steel Prices Are Rising Steel's latest strength is being driven primarily by developments on the supply side. Chinese steelmakers are facing a combination of weak demand and high production costs, leaving margins under significant pressure. Rather than maintaining production at previous levels, some mills are reducing operating rates and scheduling maintenance. The industry's latest pledge to control output could reinforce that trend. The China Iron and Steel Association and 45 major steelmakers are calling for producers to implement measures aimed at reducing inventories. For the steel market, this matters because China's enormous production base means even relatively small changes in operating rates can have a significant impact on regional and global supply expectations. If the announced production controls translate into sustained reductions in output, the market could begin moving toward a better balance between supply and demand. The Property Sector Remains the Major Headwind The biggest obstacle for steel prices remains China's domestic demand. Steel is heavily exposed to construction, infrastructure and manufacturing, making the health of China's property sector particularly important. The latest decline in new home prices provides another indication that the property downturn has not yet fully stabilised. A weak property market can reduce demand for: Reinforcing bar Construction steel Structural steel Steel products used in residential development Related industrial materials This creates a difficult environment for Chinese steelmakers. Even if production is reduced, weaker construction activity can continue to absorb less steel. That means the market needs to see both supply discipline and an improvement in demand for a more durable recovery to develop. Bullish Sentiment 1. Chinese Production Controls The commitment from the China Iron and Steel Association and 45 major steelmakers to implement output controls is the clearest immediate bullish factor. Reduced production could help bring elevated inventories down and limit excess supply. 2. Falling Steelmaker Margins Weak profitability is already encouraging some producers to reduce operations and schedule maintenance. If margins remain depressed, additional production cuts could follow. 3. Elevated Inventories Could Begin Declining The industry's focus on reducing stockpiles could provide an important catalyst if inventory levels begin falling consistently. A sustained inventory drawdown would strengthen the argument that supply is finally being brought into line with demand. 4. Rebar Near Two-Month Highs Holding above CNY 3,120 per ton and remaining near two-month highs indicates that traders are already responding to the possibility of tighter supply. A continuation of production restrictions could reinforce that momentum. 5. Supply Discipline Could Improve Market Balance China's enormous steel-producing capacity has historically contributed to periods of oversupply. Meaningful and sustained production controls could change that balance by limiting the amount of steel entering the market. Bearish Sentiment 1. China's Property Downturn Continues The housing market remains the biggest demand-side risk. Falling new home prices indicate that China's property sector has yet to achieve a sustained recovery. 2. Weak Steel Demand High production costs are occurring alongside weak demand, putting pressure on steelmakers' profitability. If demand remains subdued, production cuts may not be enough to generate a sustained price recovery. 3. Elevated Inventories The fact that producers are being urged to reduce inventories demonstrates that excess supply remains an important issue. Large stockpiles can continue weighing on prices even when production is being reduced. 4. Construction Demand Remains Vulnerable Residential construction is a major source of steel consumption. Continued weakness in property investment could restrict the amount of steel that can be absorbed by the domestic economy. 5. Production Cuts May Not Be Fully Implemented There is a difference between industry commitments and actual production reductions. The bullish case will depend on whether mills meaningfully reduce output rather than simply announcing plans to do so. China's Steel Industry Faces a Margin Squeeze The current situation highlights the fundamental problem confronting Chinese steelmakers. Producers are dealing with: High costs + weak demand + elevated inventories = declining profitability. That combination creates pressure to reduce production. But reducing output can also create problems for individual producers because fixed costs continue to exist even when mills operate at lower utilisation rates. This is why the industry's response is important. If production reductions become widespread rather than isolated to individual mills, the impact on the broader steel market could become considerably more significant. The Property Market Is Still the Key Demand Indicator For steel traders, China's property data remain one of the most important indicators to monitor. A sustained recovery in: New home sales Housing starts Property investment Construction activity Developer confidence would potentially create a stronger demand foundation for steel. At present, that recovery has not clearly emerged. The continued decline in new home prices therefore represents an important bearish counterweight to the industry's supply-control measures. Can Production Cuts Overcome Weak Demand? This is ultimately the central question facing the steel market. The bullish argument is straightforward: Lower production → lower inventories → tighter supply → stronger prices. But the bearish argument is equally important: Weak property demand → lower steel consumption → inventories remain elevated → production cuts have limited impact. The market therefore needs evidence that inventory reductions are becoming sufficiently large to offset the demand weakness. If inventories fall rapidly, the current price strength could gain further fundamental support. If inventories remain high despite production controls, the recent rally could face greater resistance. What Traders Are Watching Next The next important steel-market indicators include: Chinese steel production Rebar inventories Steel mill operating rates Steelmaker profit margins China property prices New home sales Housing starts Property investment Chinese infrastructure spending Construction activity Iron ore prices Coking coal prices Further production-control announcements The most important combination will be falling production and falling inventories. If both occur simultaneously, it would provide stronger evidence that China's steel market is moving toward tighter conditions. Today Markets View Steel is receiving meaningful support from China's push for production discipline, with major producers under pressure from weak margins and elevated inventories. However, the demand side remains unresolved. The bullish case rests on production cuts translating into lower inventories and tighter physical supply, while the bearish case remains centred on China's struggling property sector and weak construction demand. The market therefore needs confirmation that production controls are being implemented at scale. “China's steel market is being pulled between supply discipline and weak domestic demand. Production cuts could provide an important floor for prices, but a more durable recovery will require evidence that inventories are falling and the property sector is beginning to stabilise.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Banks

September 17, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI liquidity withdrawal tempers risks – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s India analysis shows the Reserve Bank of India stepping up liquidity absorption via INR1trn of government bond sales and continued VRRR operations, FX swaps and open-market actions. The measures aim to align money-market rates with the 5.25% policy rate. Despite higher short- and intermediate-term yields, USD/INR stayed near 95.96 as RBI intervened to curb volatility. Bond sales and FX intervention "Foreign investors net sold USD201.7mn of government bonds yesterday, following USD503.1mn last Friday, the largest single-day outflow in five months. The sell-off followed the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) announcement on Friday that it would sell INR1trn of government securities from its portfolio to absorb surplus banking-system liquidity." "The liquidity surplus is estimated at around INR10trn, the highest since late 2021, boosted partly by around USD127bn mobilised through the RBI's special foreign-currency schemes. These include the FCNR(B) deposits, external commercial borrowings (ECB), and overseas foreign currency borrowings (OFCB)." "RBI is set to issue INR500bn of government securities today, followed by INR250bn on both 21 and 28 September. The first auction includes securities concentrated in the shorter and intermediate segments of the curve. It will also provide banks with assets of similar maturity to their FCNR(B) deposit liabilities. The bond sales provide a more durable means of withdrawing liquidity than the short-term variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) operations, where participation has been weak. Yesterday’s INR1tn VRRR auction attracted just INR403bn of bids." "Nevertheless, RBI is likely to continue using a combination of VRRRs, open-market bond sales, and FX swaps to manage liquidity, depending on market conditions. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has emphasised that the RBI has several instruments available and will use them flexibly to align money-market rates more closely with the policy rate." "Looking ahead, the INR1tn bond sales will absorb only around one-tenth of the current liquidity surplus, suggesting that RBI is taking a measured approach initially. Further bond sales or other liquidity-absorption measures are possible if the surplus persists. With RBI expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at its next meeting on 7 October, near-term policy attention is likely to remain on liquidity sterilisation. The liquidity withdrawal should put greater upward pressure on the shorter and intermediate portions of the curve than the long end. The 5Y government bond yield has risen 24bp to 6.76%." "In FX, USD/INR was steady at around 95.96 yesterday, despite pressure from elevated global crude oil prices. Reports suggested that RBI sold USD to curb volatility. The central bank has stepped up its intervention in recent weeks, supported by higher FX reserves following measures to attract foreign capital. RBI’s liquidity-absorption measures should have a limited direct impact on the INR."

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Banks

September 17, 2026

Equities: Pressured by higher yields – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that the first Federal Reserve hike since 2023 and a more hawkish dot plot weighed on US equities. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since July, with blue-chip names and banks underperforming, although tech indices were more resilient. Overnight, S&P 500 futures reversed prior losses, pointing to a tentative improvement in risk sentiment. US stocks react to Fed shift "The hawkish Fed repricing weighed on risk assets. The S&P 500 closed -0.45% lower, having traded a few tenths higher earlier in the day thanks to the decline in oil prices." "Tech stocks helped limit the size of the aggregate decline, with the Nasdaq (-0.01%) and the Mag-7 (-0.11%) outperforming as the Philly Semiconductor Index (+0.63%) advanced. There were sharper losses amid blue chip names, with the Dow Jones (-1.21%) falling to a three-month low, while banks (-2.30%) and energy stocks (-2.97%) led the losses for the S&P 500." "The market mood has improved somewhat overnight with S&P 500 futures (+0.60%) reversing yesterday’s losses and NASDAQ futures (+0.69%) similarly stronger. This has left a mixed backdrop in Asian markets overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+0.15%), South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.89%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.35%) are all advancing. Elsewhere, Chinese equities are under pressure." "The Hang Seng (-0.75%) is leading the losses as the HKMA mirrored the Fed’s move by raising rates +25bps to 4.25%, while the Shanghai Composite (-0.35%) and the CSI 300 (-0.36%) are modestly lower." "The Stoxx 600 (+0.46%), DAX (+0.53%), CAC 40 (+0.62%) and FTSE 100 (+0.28%) all recovered from multi-week lows, while yields fell back from Tuesday’s multi-year highs, with 10yr bund (-3.1bps), OAT (-4.0bps), and BTP (-5.4bps) yields all lower. "

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Banks

September 17, 2026

British Pound: Oversold Sterling still seen weaker against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD plunged to 1.3375 and closed at 1.3380, a move seen as excessive but still pointing to further downside. Intraday, they see scope for a test of 1.3350 while holding above 1.3300, and over 1-3 weeks expect continued weakness toward 1.3350 with possible extension to 1.3300 as long as resistance at 1.3460 caps rebounds. Sterling weakness targets 1.3350 support "24-HOUR VIEW: GBP traded within a relatively narrow range of 1.3465/1.3501 two days ago. When it was at 1.3480 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “the slight increase in downward momentum suggests GBP could edge lower and test 1.3450.” However, we held the view that “the major support at 1.3410 is unlikely to come into view.” We were right on the first count, but not the second, as GBP plunged to a low of 1.3375. The sharp decline appears excessive, but there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3350 before stabilisation is can be expected. We do not expect the next support at 1.3300 to come into view. On the upside, any recovery should hold below 1.3435, with minor resistance at 1.3410." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a negative GBP view since last Friday. In our most recent narrative from two days ago (15 Sep, spot at 1.3500), we highlighted that “the price action points to further GBP weakness” However, we indicated that “the next major support at 1.3410 may not come into view so soon.” In an abrupt move during the NY session yesterday, GBP broke below 1.3410 as it plummeted to a low of 1.3375. The price action continues to suggest further GBP weakness, likely toward 1.3350. A break below this level is not ruled out, but given the deeply oversold short-term conditions, it remains to be seen whether GBP has sufficient momentum to reach the next technical target at 1.3300. We will maintain our negative view as long as GBP holds below the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.3460 (level was at 1.3540 yesterday)."

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Markets

September 17, 2026

Copper Price Rebounds to $6.45 as Fed Rate Hike, AI Demand and Supply Risks Clash

Today Markets Analysis Copper futures climbed to around $6.45 per pound on Thursday, extending gains for a third consecutive session as the broader metals complex rebounded after the Federal Reserve delivered its widely anticipated interest-rate increase. The rally comes despite a more complicated macro backdrop. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points and signalled that further tightening could still be required as policymakers continue to confront persistent inflation. That creates a fundamental conflict for copper. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar can weigh on industrial commodities by increasing financing costs and reducing demand expectations. At the same time, copper continues to benefit from powerful longer-term demand drivers including AI data centres, electricity grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles and broader electrification. Supply is also becoming increasingly important. Global mine production has been affected by disruptions and declining output at several major producers, while Chile's Codelco recently said its restructuring plan could be delayed and its production target has been revised lower. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration's decision to delay a potential tariff on refined copper has removed one of the immediate bullish catalysts that had previously pushed prices sharply higher. The result is a copper market being pulled in opposite directions: strong structural demand and constrained mine supply versus higher rates, uncertain tariffs and increasing near-term availability outside the United States. Copper Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalCopper futuresAround $6.45/lbRecent trend3 consecutive sessions higherFed25bp rate increaseUS monetary policyFurther tightening remains possibleLong-term demandAI, data centres, grids, renewables, EVsMine supplyDisruptions and constrained growthUS refined copper tariffsDecision delayedLME inventoriesRecent inflows increasing availabilityLME curveMoved into contango Why Copper Is Rising Again Copper has rebounded after suffering a sharp setback earlier in the week. The immediate catalyst is a broader recovery across metals following the Federal Reserve's rate decision. But the copper story is much larger than the Fed. Copper remains one of the most important industrial metals for the global electrification economy. Data centres require large quantities of copper for power distribution, transformers, cabling and electrical infrastructure, while renewable-energy systems and electricity-grid investment are also structurally copper-intensive. This means investors continue to see a potential long-term mismatch between available mine supply and future consumption. The International Copper Association Australia notes that global mine disruptions and tariff-related inventory movements are creating significant short-term distortions, while grid investment, renewable generation, EVs and data centres continue to support the longer-term demand outlook. The Fed Is Creating a Major Headwind The Federal Reserve's latest rate increase is an important short-term risk for copper. Higher interest rates can slow economic activity, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing and capital investment. Copper is heavily exposed to these areas. If monetary policy becomes increasingly restrictive, investors may begin reducing expectations for industrial demand. A stronger U.S. dollar can add another layer of pressure because copper is priced internationally in dollars. A stronger dollar increases the effective cost for buyers using other currencies. That is why copper's latest three-session rally needs to be viewed carefully. The metal is rising despite a monetary-policy environment that is not inherently supportive of industrial commodities. Structural Demand Remains the Long-Term Bull Case The strongest argument for copper remains the energy and technology transition. Modern data centres require enormous amounts of electricity, while the infrastructure needed to generate, transmit and distribute that electricity requires substantial quantities of copper. The same applies to: AI data centres Electricity grids Solar power Wind power Electric vehicles Battery infrastructure Industrial electrification Power transmission Renewable-energy systems Research published in Renewable Energy in September 2026 identified a growing potential gap between future copper supply and energy-transition demand, with solar PV and EVs among the major sources of projected demand growth. That gives copper a structural demand story that is very different from a conventional cyclical commodity. Mine Supply Is Becoming Increasingly Important The supply side is equally important. Copper production has struggled to expand rapidly enough to comfortably accommodate the expected growth in consumption. Recent industry data show global mine output declined by approximately 1.1% during the first half of 2026, with disruptions affecting major producers including Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Chile provides another example. State-owned Codelco has revised its production goal down to approximately 1.3 million tonnes, well below an earlier target of 1.7 million tonnes, while the company's restructuring plan could be delayed until the end of 2026. For copper traders, this matters because developing new mines takes years. A sudden increase in demand cannot necessarily be met with an equally rapid increase in production. Bullish Sentiment 1. AI and Data-Centre Demand The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is creating significant demand for electricity-generation and transmission equipment. Copper is essential throughout that electrical infrastructure. The long-term expansion of data centres therefore provides an important structural demand driver. 2. Mine Supply Remains Constrained Global copper mine output has been affected by disruptions at major operations, while some major producers are struggling to meet earlier production targets. 3. Renewable-Energy Investment Solar, wind, electricity grids and EV infrastructure all require significant copper inputs. That creates demand that is less dependent on traditional construction cycles. 4. Third Consecutive Session of Gains The move toward $6.45 per pound represents a meaningful short-term recovery after copper's earlier decline. If momentum continues, traders could begin testing whether the metal can recover some of the ground lost after the tariff-related selloff. 5. A Potential Supply Deficit Remains a Longer-Term Theme The combination of constrained mine development and increasing electrification demand remains one of the strongest structural arguments supporting copper prices. Bearish Sentiment 1. Higher Interest Rates The Fed's latest rate increase and signal that further hikes may be required could weigh on industrial demand. Copper remains particularly sensitive to global manufacturing and construction activity. 2. The Strong Dollar A stronger dollar can create additional pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. If U.S. rates remain elevated relative to other economies, the currency could remain a significant headwind. 3. LME Deliveries Are Increasing The LME has recently seen fresh copper deliveries, with warehouse inflows reaching their highest level in almost four weeks. That has pushed the London market into contango, indicating that immediate physical availability has become less restrictive. This is an important bearish signal. The long-term supply story may be tight, but traders are currently seeing more metal becoming available in the near-term. 4. Chinese Demand Is Showing Price Sensitivity China imported 382,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in August, down from 425,000 tonnes in July and the weakest August figure in six years. January-August imports were 6.7% below the same period a year earlier. That suggests high prices are already beginning to constrain physical demand in the world's largest copper-consuming market. 5. U.S. Tariff Expectations Have Changed The White House has delayed a decision on tariffs covering refined copper as officials weigh the potential benefits of encouraging domestic production against the possibility of higher manufacturing costs. That removes an immediate source of support that had previously encouraged stockpiling and pushed copper prices higher. The Copper Tariff Story Has Become Complicated U.S. tariff policy has been one of the biggest catalysts in copper markets this year. Expectations of potential tariffs encouraged traders and industrial users to move refined copper into the United States, contributing to unusually large U.S. inventories while reducing availability in other markets. But the administration has delayed a decision on broader refined-copper tariffs. Reuters reported that officials are weighing the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining against concerns that tariffs could increase manufacturing costs. That creates two opposing possibilities. If tariffs are imposed: U.S. buyers could accelerate stockpiling while copper outside the United States becomes tighter. If tariffs are abandoned or substantially delayed: the incentive to move additional copper into the U.S. could weaken, potentially allowing inventories elsewhere to rebuild. That uncertainty is now an important source of volatility. LME Contango Sends an Important Warning The move into contango on the London Metal Exchange deserves close attention. When nearby copper trades below later-dated contracts, the market is signalling that immediate physical availability is less constrained than it was previously. This does not invalidate the long-term supply shortage argument. Instead, it highlights the difference between short-term physical availability and long-term structural demand. That distinction is crucial for copper traders. The market can simultaneously have: Near-term availability → improving while also having: Long-term supply outlook → increasingly constrained The price will ultimately depend on which story dominates investor positioning. China Is the Other Major Demand Test Copper's long-term demand story is compelling, but China remains the largest immediate physical-demand variable. The decline in Chinese imports indicates that elevated prices are beginning to affect purchasing behaviour. If Chinese manufacturers and fabricators continue reducing purchases because of high prices, copper could face a period where speculative demand remains strong while physical demand weakens. That would create an important test for the rally. Conversely, if Chinese demand recovers while mine disruptions continue, the physical market could tighten again rapidly. The Market Is Now Trading Two Copper Stories The copper market can effectively be divided into two separate time horizons. Short Term Fed tightening Dollar strength LME inventory inflows Contango Chinese demand sensitivity U.S. tariff uncertainty Long Term AI infrastructure Data centres Electricity grids Renewable energy EVs Electrification Constrained mine development Production disruptions This explains why copper can rebound strongly even while some physical-market indicators are becoming less bullish. Investors are increasingly pricing the future supply-demand balance rather than simply today's inventories. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major copper catalysts include: U.S. refined-copper tariff decision LME warehouse inventories LME cash-to-three-month spread Chinese copper imports Chinese manufacturing activity Major mine production updates Codelco's restructuring and production outlook Fed interest-rate expectations US dollar direction AI and data-centre infrastructure investment Global electricity-grid spending Copper's ability to sustain the $6.45/lb recovery The interaction between U.S. inventories and LME inventories will be particularly important. If copper continues moving toward the United States while inventories outside the U.S. decline, the global physical market could become increasingly fragmented. Currency Hedger View Copper is one of the clearest examples of how commodity prices and foreign exchange interact. Because copper is predominantly priced in U.S. dollars, movements in the dollar can materially affect the purchasing power of international buyers. A stronger dollar can therefore create a double headwind for non-U.S. consumers: Higher copper price + stronger USD = higher effective local-currency cost. For mining companies, the relationship can work differently because revenues are often dollar-linked while a portion of operating costs may be denominated in local currencies. This makes USD exposure, local-currency costs and commodity-price risk important components of the overall hedge strategy. Currency Hedger specialises in foreign exchange exposure, currency risk and hedging strategies for companies operating across international markets. Today Markets View Copper's three-session rebound is significant because the metal is recovering despite a Federal Reserve that remains focused on inflation and is signalling that additional tightening may still be required. That creates a genuine test for the market. If copper can continue rising while the dollar and interest rates remain relatively restrictive, it would demonstrate the strength of the structural supply-demand story. But the bearish signals cannot be ignored. LME inventories are increasing, the curve has moved into contango, Chinese imports have weakened and the U.S. copper tariff decision has been delayed. The bullish case therefore depends increasingly on whether long-term demand expectations and mine disruptions are strong enough to overpower the near-term increase in available metal. “Copper is increasingly being pulled between two very different time horizons. Near-term inventories and tariff uncertainty are creating pressure, while AI infrastructure, electrification and constrained mine supply continue to support the longer-term outlook. The next phase of the rally will depend on which of those forces dominates physical demand.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Copper has rebounded toward $6.45 per pound for a third consecutive session, but the market remains caught between powerful bullish structural forces and increasingly important near-term bearish signals. The long-term story remains compelling. AI data centres, electricity-grid investment, renewable energy, EVs and broader electrification are expected to require increasing volumes of copper, while mine disruptions and slower production growth are limiting the industry's ability to respond quickly. But the immediate picture is more complicated. The Federal Reserve remains restrictive, the dollar can pressure dollar-denominated commodities, Chinese copper imports have weakened, and increasing LME deliveries have pushed the market into contango. Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S. refined-copper tariffs remains a major source of volatility after the White House delayed a decision. For traders, the central question is now straightforward: Can structural copper demand and constrained mine supply overwhelm improving near-term availability and tighter monetary conditions? That battle is likely to determine whether the latest rebound develops into another leg higher or becomes a temporary recovery within a more volatile market. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 17, 2026

Palm Oil Price Surges Above MYR 5,000 as Tight Supply, India Demand and Crude Oil Fuel Rally

Today Markets Analysis Malaysian palm oil futures surged more than 2.5% to around MYR 5,015 per tonne, extending their recent advance as trading resumed following a holiday. The rally is being driven by a powerful combination of tighter future supply expectations, strong Indian buying, a weaker Malaysian ringgit and crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel. The market is also responding to Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel programme, which increases the amount of palm-based biodiesel absorbed domestically and potentially reduces the volume available for export. Indonesia formally launched its mandatory B50 programme in July 2026. At the same time, there are clear limits to the bullish narrative. Malaysian exports have weakened sharply during the first half of September, while Malaysia's decision to retain a 10% export duty could add to the cost of Malaysian-origin palm oil. Palm Oil Market Snapshot FactorCurrent SignalMalaysian palm oilAround MYR 5,015/tRecent move+2.5%+Crude oilAbove USD 100/bblIndonesia B50Increasing domestic CPO demandIndia August imports782,761 tonnesIndia monthly change+7%Malaysia October CPO reference priceMYR 4,452.66/tMalaysian export duty10%Early-September exportsDown 17.8%–25.6% vs comparable August period Why Palm Oil Is Rallying The palm oil market is being pulled higher by a tightening supply-and-demand equation. Indonesia's B50 mandate is particularly important because palm oil is being redirected into the domestic biodiesel market. Indonesia's government says the programme uses a 50% biodiesel blend and is intended to reduce dependence on imported diesel while increasing domestic absorption of palm-based feedstock. For palm oil traders, the critical issue is not simply how much Indonesia produces, but how much of that production remains available to the international export market. If domestic biodiesel consumption increases, exporters may have less supply available even without a major decline in headline production. That creates a potentially tighter global market, particularly if Malaysia simultaneously faces weather-related production risks. India Demand Adds Another Major Bullish Signal India is providing another important demand catalyst. Palm oil imports increased 7% month-on-month to 782,761 tonnes in August, the highest level since February, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Refiners increased purchases as they rebuilt inventories ahead of India's festival season. That matters because India is one of the world's largest vegetable-oil import markets. The timing is particularly significant. Increased Indian buying ahead of the August-November festival period can provide additional physical demand at exactly the point when traders are becoming increasingly concerned about future palm oil availability. The question for the market is therefore whether Indian restocking continues strongly enough to offset weaker Malaysian export flows. Crude Oil Above $100 Strengthens Palm Oil's Biodiesel Appeal The rally in crude oil is another important component of the palm oil story. Brent has remained above USD 100 per barrel, increasing the economic attractiveness of vegetable oils as biodiesel feedstocks. Recent Malaysian palm oil gains have already been linked to rising crude prices, while traders have simultaneously cited Indonesia's B50 policy and potential El Niño production risks. This creates an important cross-commodity relationship: Higher crude oil → stronger biodiesel economics → greater potential demand for palm oil. With Indonesia already increasing biodiesel consumption through B50, sustained high crude prices could reinforce the incentive to divert more palm oil into energy markets. Weather Risk Adds Another Layer to the Supply Story Weather is becoming another variable for palm oil traders. The possibility of El Niño-related dryness in Indonesia and Malaysia has raised concerns over future production conditions. Recent market reporting has highlighted the combination of B50 demand and potential weather disruption as a key reason traders are becoming more cautious about future supply. The important distinction is that weather risk affects future production, while B50 affects current and future domestic consumption. If both factors intensify simultaneously, the effect on export availability could become considerably more significant. Bullish Sentiment 1. MYR 5,000 Has Been Reclaimed The move above MYR 5,000 per tonne represents an important psychological development for the market. A sustained move above this level would indicate that traders are willing to price a tighter supply outlook despite the recent weakness in Malaysian exports. 2. Indonesia's B50 Programme Indonesia's B50 programme creates a structural source of additional domestic palm-oil demand. The government's stated objective includes increasing CPO absorption while reducing diesel imports. That potentially reduces export availability from the world's largest palm oil producer. 3. Strong Indian Buying India's August imports of 782,761 tonnes were the highest since February and rose 7% month-on-month. If refiners continue replenishing stocks into the festival period, international demand could remain firm. 4. Crude Oil Above $100 High crude oil prices improve the relative attractiveness of palm oil for biodiesel production, strengthening the connection between energy prices and vegetable-oil demand. 5. El Niño Risk Any meaningful deterioration in growing conditions across Indonesia or Malaysia could reinforce concerns over future production. Bearish Sentiment The rally is not without significant risks. 1. Malaysian Exports Are Weak Cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments fell between 17.8% and 25.6% during the first half of September compared with the corresponding period of August. That is a substantial decline. If exports remain weak through the rest of September, it could indicate that current prices are encountering demand resistance despite the broader bullish supply narrative. 2. Malaysia Keeps the 10% Export Duty Malaysia increased its October CPO reference price to MYR 4,452.66 per tonne, up from MYR 4,392.32 in September, while maintaining the export duty at 10%. The 10% duty remains at the maximum rate because the reference price is above the threshold for the highest export-tax band. Higher costs for Malaysian-origin cargo could reduce competitiveness relative to alternative vegetable oils and origins. 3. High Prices Could Encourage Substitution Palm oil does not compete only against crude oil. It also competes with soybean oil, sunflower oil and other vegetable oils. If palm oil prices rise too aggressively, refiners may have an incentive to switch part of their purchases toward alternative oils where economics allow. 4. Demand Still Needs to Catch Up With the Price Rally The sharp rise toward MYR 5,000 has occurred while Malaysian export data remain weak. That creates a potential divergence between price momentum and physical export demand. Traders will therefore want confirmation that the rally is supported by sustained physical buying rather than predominantly by expectations of future supply tightness. Malaysia's Export-Duty Decision Matters Malaysia's October reference price of MYR 4,452.66 per tonne keeps crude palm oil within the highest 10% export-duty band. The September reference price was MYR 4,392.32 per tonne, also carrying a 10% duty. For the international market, this means Malaysian exporters are operating in an environment where the government is not providing additional tax relief as prices rise. That could become increasingly important if Indonesian domestic demand continues absorbing more palm oil. The Ringgit Is Another Price Driver The Malaysian ringgit has also played a role in the rally. A weaker ringgit can make Malaysian palm oil more competitive for overseas buyers because international purchasers paying in US dollars effectively face a lower foreign-exchange cost for Malaysian-origin cargo. This means palm oil is currently benefiting from a combination of: Higher crude oil + weaker ringgit + stronger Indian demand + Indonesian biodiesel demand + supply/weather risks. That is a powerful combination for the bulls. However, the weaker Malaysian export data demonstrate that the currency advantage has not yet translated into uniformly stronger shipment volumes. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major signals for palm oil traders are: Malaysian September exports — to determine whether the early-month weakness persists. MPOB production and stock data — particularly whether inventories are building or tightening. Indonesia's B50 implementation and CPO absorption — a major structural demand variable. Indian imports — whether August's increase develops into sustained festival-season buying. Crude oil prices — particularly whether Brent remains above USD 100. El Niño developments — especially rainfall and production conditions across Indonesia and Malaysia. Soybean and sunflower oil prices — because substitution can limit palm oil's upside. MYR 5,000 per tonne — whether the market can establish sustained trade above this psychological threshold. Malaysia's official palm-oil statistics are particularly important because the Malaysian Palm Oil Board publishes monthly data covering production, stocks, exports and imports. Currency Hedger View Palm oil's latest rally demonstrates why commodity traders cannot ignore foreign exchange. The combination of a weaker ringgit and higher palm oil prices is particularly significant for Malaysian exporters because the commodity is internationally priced while production costs and a large portion of the supply chain are linked to the local currency. For international buyers, movements in USD/MYR can therefore amplify or partially offset changes in the underlying palm oil price. The broader relationship is straightforward: Palm oil higher + ringgit weaker = potentially stronger export economics. But if the ringgit strengthens while palm oil prices remain elevated, Malaysian exporters could face a more challenging competitive environment. For businesses exposed to commodity purchases, FX hedging can therefore be just as important as monitoring the underlying commodity itself. Currency Hedger provides specialist analysis of foreign exchange exposure, currency risk and hedging strategies. Today Markets View Palm oil has entered a critical phase. The move above MYR 5,000 per tonne is being supported by a genuine combination of structural and cyclical factors: Indonesia's B50 biodiesel programme is increasing domestic CPO absorption, Indian imports have strengthened, crude oil remains above USD 100 and weather risks are creating uncertainty over future production. At the same time, the market cannot ignore the sharp decline in Malaysian exports during the first half of September. That creates the central trading question: Is the market preparing for a genuine supply squeeze, or has palm oil moved too far ahead of current physical demand? The answer will increasingly depend on Malaysian production and stock data, Indonesian biodiesel consumption and whether Indian buying remains strong. “Palm oil is being supported by a rare combination of energy-market strength, biodiesel demand and supply uncertainty. But with Malaysian exports weakening sharply, traders need confirmation from physical-market data before assuming that the rally can continue uninterrupted.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Palm oil is firmly bullish in the near term, but the rally is facing an important test. Prices around MYR 5,015 per tonne reflect growing expectations of tighter supply as Indonesia's B50 programme absorbs more palm oil domestically, while El Niño risks threaten production and India has increased imports ahead of its major festival season. Crude oil above USD 100 provides an additional demand catalyst by improving palm oil's attractiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. However, Malaysian exports falling 17.8%–25.6% in the first half of September is the clearest bearish warning in the current market. If weak exports persist while inventories build, the rally could lose momentum. For now, the palm oil market is being driven more by future supply tightness and energy-linked demand expectations than by the latest export numbers. The next major test is whether the physical market confirms the bullish narrative. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 17, 2026

Zinc Price Falls Below $3,800 as Strong Dollar and Hawkish Fed Hit Metals, But Supply Shortage Limits Downside

Today Markets Analysis Zinc prices have come under renewed pressure, falling toward and below the $3,800-per-tonne area as a stronger US dollar and the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy outlook weigh on industrial metals. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in more than three years, while policymakers signalled that another hike could still be required before the end of 2026. The dollar subsequently climbed to a seven-week high around 100.33 on the DXY, increasing pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. For zinc, the macroeconomic pressure is particularly important because the metal is heavily exposed to industrial demand. A stronger dollar increases the local-currency cost for buyers outside the United States, while higher interest rates can weigh on construction, manufacturing and broader economic activity. However, zinc is not simply another commodity caught in a dollar-driven selloff. The physical market continues to show evidence of constrained mine supply, extremely low treatment charges and tight availability outside China. Reuters recently reported that global mined zinc production fell 2.6% in the first half of 2026, with disruptions and lower output at several major mines contributing to the squeeze. That creates a significant conflict between the short-term bearish macro environment and the longer-term physical fundamentals. Zinc Market Overview FactorCurrent SituationZinc ImpactZinc priceBelow $3,800/tBearish near termUS dollarSeven-week highBearishFed rate3.75%-4.00%BearishFurther Fed hikeStill possible in 2026BearishMine supplyConstrainedBullishTreatment chargesExtremely low/negativeBullishLME inventoriesLow by historical standardsBullishWestern physical availabilityTightBullishConstruction demandUnder pressureBearishChinese demandKey variableMixed The Strong Dollar Is Hitting Zinc The immediate catalyst behind the latest decline is the renewed strength of the US dollar. The Fed's rate increase and hawkish guidance pushed the dollar index to approximately 100.33, its highest level since July 31. Two-year Treasury yields also reached their highest level since July 2024, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained close to 5%. That combination is negative for zinc. Because zinc is priced internationally in US dollars, a stronger greenback increases the effective cost for consumers using euros, yen, yuan and other currencies. At the same time, higher interest rates can reduce economic activity in sectors that consume large quantities of zinc. Zinc is heavily linked to: Construction Galvanised steel Infrastructure Automotive production Manufacturing Industrial equipment Consumer durables Consequently, a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy can weaken the demand side of the zinc equation. Bullish Sentiment 1. The physical zinc market remains tight The most important bullish argument is that the price decline is occurring against a backdrop of constrained raw-material availability. Reuters reported that global mined zinc production fell 2.6% during the first half of 2026, with lower output reported at several major operations including mines in Peru, Alaska, Australia and Sweden. That matters because zinc smelters require concentrate from mines as feedstock. If mine supply remains constrained, refiners can struggle to secure sufficient material even when end-user demand is not particularly strong. This creates a physical-market floor underneath prices. 2. Treatment charges have collapsed Treatment charges are an important indicator of the balance between zinc concentrate supply and smelting capacity. When concentrate is plentiful, miners generally have less negotiating power and smelters can demand higher treatment fees. When concentrate becomes scarce, that relationship reverses. Recent LME analysis highlights deeply negative zinc treatment charges, indicating that smelters are effectively competing aggressively for limited concentrate. This is one of the strongest signals that the zinc market's weakness is not being caused by abundant mine supply. 3. LME stocks remain relatively low LME inventories remain low compared with historical levels, even after some recent increases. Westmetall data showed LME zinc stocks at 111,225 tonnes on September 15, compared with around 97,950 tonnes at the end of August. Despite that increase, inventories remain relatively small compared with the scale of global zinc consumption. Low exchange inventories can become particularly important when physical supply is disrupted. If demand suddenly improves, consumers may find it difficult to replenish stocks quickly. 4. Western physical availability remains particularly constrained The supply issue is not necessarily evenly distributed across the global market. Recent analysis indicates that China has been comparatively better supplied, while Western markets have faced tighter availability and increasing dependence on imported refined metal. That geographic imbalance is important. A headline global supply figure can suggest adequate metal availability while individual regions experience significantly tighter conditions. 5. Supply disruptions could become more important than macroeconomic weakness Zinc's mine supply base is vulnerable to operational disruptions, declining ore grades and delays to new projects. If additional production problems emerge while inventories remain low, the market could quickly refocus on physical scarcity. That would make the current dollar-driven decline more difficult to sustain. Bearish Sentiment 1. The US dollar is creating a major headwind The strongest immediate bearish factor is the dollar. The DXY has climbed to around 100.33 after the Fed's hawkish policy decision, making dollar-priced commodities more expensive for international buyers. If the dollar continues higher, zinc could remain under pressure even if physical fundamentals remain tight. 2. Higher interest rates threaten industrial demand The Fed has moved the US economy into another period of monetary tightening. Higher borrowing costs can reduce investment in construction, property development, manufacturing and infrastructure. That matters directly for zinc because a significant portion of global demand is linked to galvanised steel and construction-related activity. The latest LME weekly review specifically identified weak construction demand as a counterweight to zinc's constrained mine supply. 3. China remains a major demand risk China is critical to the global zinc market. Any slowdown in Chinese construction, manufacturing or infrastructure activity could reduce refined-zinc consumption and offset some of the supply-side tightness. This is particularly important because zinc's physical scarcity does not automatically guarantee higher prices if demand weakens sufficiently. 4. Global industrial activity could deteriorate The combination of higher rates, elevated energy prices and tighter financial conditions could weigh on global manufacturing. If industrial production slows across Europe, the United States and Asia, zinc consumption could weaken. This would create a situation in which concentrate remains scarce but finished zinc demand is insufficient to push prices significantly higher. 5. Recent LME inventory increases cannot be ignored Although inventories remain relatively low, LME zinc stocks have increased from late-August levels. Westmetall data show stocks rising from approximately 97,950 tonnes on August 28 to 111,225 tonnes on September 15. That does not eliminate the physical-tightness argument, but it does provide a counterpoint to the assumption that exchange stocks are continuously falling. Zinc's Biggest Contradiction: Tight Supply, Weak Demand This is arguably the most important feature of the current zinc market. The supply side is sending one message: Zinc concentrate is difficult to obtain. The demand side is sending another: Higher rates and weak construction activity could reduce consumption. That creates a market where prices can remain volatile in both directions. If demand deteriorates faster than mine supply contracts, zinc can continue falling. But if demand stabilises while concentrate availability remains tight, smelters could struggle to secure feedstock and zinc prices could rebound sharply. The current negative treatment-charge environment suggests the physical supply issue should not be ignored simply because the headline price is falling. Zinc Versus Copper and Other Base Metals Zinc is increasingly developing a different fundamental profile from some other industrial metals. While many base metals are primarily trading on expectations for Chinese demand, zinc currently has an additional supply-side story involving mine disruptions and constrained concentrate availability. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group's April outlook had projected 2026 global zinc mine production growth of only 0.3%, to around 12.55 million tonnes, with declines expected at several major operations. That relatively limited mine-supply growth contrasts with the structural challenges highlighted by more recent market data. The next ILZSG statistical bulletin is scheduled for September 23, making it an important upcoming source of updated information on the global zinc balance. What Zinc Traders Are Watching Next The next major catalysts for zinc include: US dollar direction Federal Reserve policy expectations US Treasury yields Chinese industrial activity Chinese property and construction data Global manufacturing PMIs LME zinc inventories Cancelled LME warrants Zinc treatment charges Mine production Smelter operating rates Chinese zinc exports European industrial demand New mine projects and disruptions September ILZSG supply-demand data The September 23 ILZSG release will be particularly important because it should provide a fresh assessment of mine production, refined output, consumption and inventories. $3,800 Becomes an Important Zinc Test With zinc trading around the $3,800-per-tonne region, traders are now watching whether the market can stabilise despite the dollar's renewed strength. A sustained move below this area would reinforce the argument that macroeconomic pressure is overwhelming the physical supply story. However, if zinc begins recovering while the dollar remains strong, that would suggest the physical market is exerting increasing influence. The more important signal may therefore not be the absolute price level but how zinc behaves when the dollar strengthens. If the metal refuses to fall despite rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, the market could be signalling that physical tightness is becoming increasingly dominant. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Zinc is a clear example of why currency movements can materially affect commodity markets. A stronger US dollar raises the effective purchasing cost for international zinc consumers, potentially reducing demand even when the underlying physical market remains tight. For manufacturers and industrial businesses with zinc exposure, the interaction between commodity prices and currency rates therefore becomes an important part of overall procurement and cost management. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Zinc is currently being pulled in opposite directions. The macroeconomic picture is bearish. The Federal Reserve has resumed tightening, US Treasury yields are elevated and the dollar has climbed to a seven-week high. But the physical zinc market is sending a much more supportive signal. Mine production has been constrained, treatment charges have fallen sharply into negative territory and Western physical availability remains tight. Reuters recently described the LME market as experiencing a significant supply squeeze, with global mined production declining during the first half of 2026. That makes the current zinc decline particularly interesting. “Zinc is being pressured by exactly the macro forces that normally weigh heavily on industrial metals — a stronger dollar, higher interest rates and concerns over industrial demand. But underneath that weakness, the physical market remains tight. The key question is whether weakening demand can overcome a shortage of concentrate.” Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Zinc has fallen below the $3,800-per-tonne area, with the stronger US dollar and the Federal Reserve's renewed tightening cycle creating a significant short-term headwind. The Fed's move to 3.75%-4.00% has lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, increasing the cost of dollar-priced commodities for international buyers and raising concerns over industrial demand. But zinc's physical fundamentals remain considerably tighter than the price action might suggest. Global mined production fell during the first half of 2026, treatment charges have moved deeply negative and LME inventories remain relatively low. This leaves zinc facing a genuine macro-versus-physical-fundamentals battle. The bearish case is centred on the dollar, higher rates, weaker construction activity and potentially softer Chinese demand. The bullish case rests on constrained mine supply, scarce concentrate, low treatment charges and tight Western physical availability. The next major test will be whether zinc can stabilise around the $3,800 region despite continued dollar strength. The upcoming September 23 ILZSG data could provide an important new indication of whether the physical market is tightening further or whether refined supply is beginning to catch up with demand. Currency Hedger remains focused on the currency and macroeconomic implications of the changing dollar and commodity environment. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Gold Price Struggles Below $4,300 as Hawkish Fed, Strong Dollar and Higher Rates Clash With Geopolitical Risk

Today Markets Analysis Gold remains under pressure around the $4,300-per-ounce area as investors digest the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate increase in three years and its signal that another hike could follow before the end of 2026. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 15-16 meeting. The decision was unanimous, while the updated projections showed policymakers still expecting restrictive monetary policy as inflation remains above target. The Fed's projections put median 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7% and median core PCE inflation at 3.4%, both above the central bank's 2% objective. The median federal funds projection for year-end 2026 is 4.1%, indicating that the current tightening cycle may not yet be finished. Gold's reaction, however, has been more complicated than the traditional rate relationship would suggest. Reuters reported spot gold rising more than 1% on Thursday to around $4,310 an ounce, even as December futures declined almost 1%. This indicates that safe-haven demand, technical factors and the extent to which the Fed decision was already priced into markets are competing with the negative impact of higher interest rates. Gold Market Overview FactorCurrent SituationGold ImpactGoldAround $4,300-$4,310/ozKey support/resistance zoneFed rate3.75%-4.00%BearishFed outlookFurther tightening signalledBearish2026 PCE inflation projection3.7%Bearish for rate-sensitive goldUS dollarStrengthening after FedBearishTreasury yieldsElevatedBearishMiddle East tensionsRemain significantBullishOilAbove $100/barrelMixedSupply concernsSome easingPotentially bearishSafe-haven demandStill elevatedBullish The Fed Has Changed the Gold Equation Gold traditionally benefits when real interest rates fall because the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset declines. The opposite is now becoming an important market force. The Fed has raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, while its September projections point to another increase in the current year. Sixteen of the 18 policymakers reportedly see at least one further increase in 2026. That creates a significant headwind for gold. Higher rates can increase the attractiveness of Treasury securities and other interest-bearing assets relative to bullion. At the same time, a stronger US dollar can make gold more expensive for international buyers. This combination can place substantial pressure on precious metals even when geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. But gold has not simply followed that textbook relationship. Bullish Sentiment 1. Geopolitical risk continues to support safe-haven demand The Middle East remains an important source of uncertainty for financial markets. Gold continues to benefit from its traditional safe-haven characteristics whenever investors become concerned about military escalation, energy infrastructure or disruption to global trade routes. That support is particularly important because gold is simultaneously facing a higher-rate environment. 2. Oil prices remain an inflation risk Crude oil remains above $100 per barrel, maintaining pressure on global inflation expectations. Although falling oil prices can reduce some immediate inflation pressure, a renewed energy-price shock could force central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. That creates a complicated environment for gold. Higher inflation can support bullion as an inflation hedge, although the monetary-policy response to that inflation can initially be negative for gold. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has specifically highlighted the risk that higher energy prices could broaden into wider inflation, while noting that monetary policy cannot directly control oil or food prices. 3. Gold has demonstrated resilience despite the Fed hike The market reaction itself is significant. Rather than collapsing immediately after the Fed decision, spot gold moved higher on Thursday and reached approximately $4,310.49 according to Reuters. That resilience suggests investors may already have priced a significant portion of the Fed's expected tightening into gold. If the dollar and Treasury yields stop accelerating, gold could potentially regain momentum even without an immediate shift toward easier monetary policy. 4. Central-bank and physical demand remain important Gold's longer-term demand structure is broader than US monetary policy alone. Central-bank buying, physical demand and investment flows can provide support during periods when traditional rate-sensitive investors are reducing exposure. This is one reason the relationship between gold and US interest rates has become less mechanically predictable. Bearish Sentiment 1. The Fed is signalling that rates may go higher The biggest near-term obstacle for gold is the Fed's policy trajectory. The September projections show a median federal funds rate of 4.1% at the end of 2026, above the current 3.75%-4.00% target range. If incoming inflation data remain elevated and markets increase expectations for additional tightening, Treasury yields and the dollar could rise further. That would create renewed pressure on bullion. 2. The US dollar remains a major headwind Gold is predominantly priced in US dollars. When the dollar strengthens, gold generally becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. The post-Fed dollar rally therefore represents one of the clearest short-term risks to the gold price. A sustained dollar advance could make it difficult for gold to establish a fresh upside move even if geopolitical demand remains strong. 3. Higher Treasury yields increase gold's opportunity cost Gold does not pay interest. When Treasury yields rise, investors can obtain higher returns from US government securities without taking the same commodity-price exposure. This increases the opportunity cost of holding bullion. The relationship is particularly important now because the Fed is signalling that monetary policy may remain restrictive rather than moving rapidly toward rate cuts. 4. Easing oil-supply concerns could reduce some inflation pressure The energy market has also started providing less support for inflation fears. Saudi Arabia is working to restore its East-West pipeline capacity, while US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that around 18 million barrels of crude and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week. Reuters also reported that Saudi Arabia had offered additional crude supplies, helping push oil prices lower. If energy supply conditions continue to normalise, some of the inflation premium embedded in commodities could begin to fade. That would remove one of the secondary supports for gold. Gold Versus the Fed: The Central Market Battle The critical issue for bullion is no longer simply whether the Fed raises or cuts rates. It is why the Fed is moving rates. If rates rise because the economy remains resilient while inflation stays stubbornly high, gold can face pressure from higher real yields and a stronger dollar. But if rates rise because of an energy-driven inflation shock while geopolitical uncertainty simultaneously increases, gold can receive safe-haven and inflation-hedging demand. That distinction is crucial. The September Fed projections show 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7%, before falling toward 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Therefore, markets are now effectively balancing two competing narratives: Hawkish narrative:Higher rates → higher yields → stronger dollar → pressure on gold. Inflation/geopolitical narrative:Higher energy prices → persistent inflation → geopolitical uncertainty → safe-haven demand for gold. The relative strength of those two forces should determine the next major move. $4,300 Becomes the Key Gold Battleground The $4,300 area has become an important psychological level for the market. A sustained move below this region would reinforce the argument that the Fed's renewed tightening cycle is beginning to overwhelm safe-haven demand. Conversely, continued trading above $4,300 — particularly if gold can reclaim higher levels while the dollar remains firm — would demonstrate considerable underlying demand. Reuters' latest market report showed spot gold already recovering above that level on Thursday, despite the Fed's hawkish stance. That makes the price action particularly important. The market is effectively testing whether $4,300 can transition from a psychological support area into a platform for another recovery. What Gold Traders Are Watching Next The next major catalysts for bullion include: US inflation data US employment figures Federal Reserve speeches Treasury yields US dollar index Expectations for another 2026 Fed hike Middle East developments Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions Saudi oil infrastructure restoration Crude oil prices Central-bank gold demand Gold ETF flows Physical demand from Asia The interaction between US yields and geopolitical risk will remain particularly important. If Treasury yields rise sharply while geopolitical tensions ease, gold could face a stronger headwind. If geopolitical tensions intensify while yields stabilise, safe-haven demand could become increasingly important. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Gold's relationship with the US dollar is particularly important for international businesses and investors. A stronger dollar can simultaneously increase the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated commodities while putting pressure on gold prices measured in USD. For businesses exposed to both precious metals and foreign exchange, the current environment therefore requires monitoring gold, USD and interest-rate expectations together rather than independently. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Gold is entering an important phase as the Federal Reserve begins a new tightening cycle while geopolitical and energy-market risks remain elevated. The Fed's message is clear: inflation remains too high and policymakers are prepared to keep monetary policy restrictive. The September projections show another rate increase embedded in the median 2026 policy outlook. That creates a significant structural headwind for bullion. However, the immediate market response shows that gold is not behaving as a simple inverse function of interest rates. The metal's ability to trade back above $4,300 despite the Fed hike demonstrates the strength of competing safe-haven and inflation concerns. “Gold is now caught between two powerful forces. The Fed's renewed tightening cycle is pushing yields and the dollar higher, but geopolitical risk and elevated energy prices are preventing investors from abandoning the traditional safe-haven trade. The $4,300 area will be important because it shows whether monetary-policy pressure or defensive demand ultimately dominates.” Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Gold remains under pressure from the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy outlook, higher US interest rates, elevated Treasury yields and renewed US dollar strength. The Fed has lifted rates to 3.75%-4.00% and its latest projections indicate that another increase could still occur before the end of 2026. That is clearly negative for a non-yielding asset such as gold. However, the bullish case has not disappeared. Persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, elevated oil prices and safe-haven demand continue to provide important support. Thursday's recovery in spot gold toward $4,310 demonstrates that buyers remain active even after the Fed's hawkish shift. The next major battle is therefore around $4,300. A sustained break below the level would increase the significance of the Fed-driven bearish narrative, while continued resilience above it would indicate that geopolitical and inflation concerns are still powerful enough to offset some of the pressure from higher US rates. For traders, the key variables remain US Treasury yields, the dollar, oil prices and geopolitical developments. Currency Hedger remains focused on the currency and macroeconomic implications of the changing interest-rate and commodity environment. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 17, 2026

Trump Threatens Massive EU Tariffs Over Canada Alliance as New Trade War Risk Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets

Today Markets Analysis A fresh U.S.–European trade confrontation is emerging after President Donald Trump threatened “very serious tariffs” against the European Union — and potentially reduced trade with the bloc — if Brussels proceeds with plans to make Canada its first associate member. The threat followed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's announcement on September 16 that she wanted to open the door for Canada to become the EU's first “associate member.” The proposed status does not currently exist under EU treaties and would require further discussion and ratification by member states. Trump said he could impose significant tariffs or stop trading with Europe on certain goods if he considered the EU's move to be hostile toward the United States. His comments add another layer of uncertainty to already strained U.S.–Canada and U.S.–EU trade relations. The European proposal would seek to deepen cooperation between Canada and the EU beyond their existing CETA free-trade agreement, with discussions potentially extending across trade, energy, critical minerals, technology, manufacturing and defence. For financial markets, the immediate question is whether Trump's comments remain a political warning or develop into concrete tariff measures. U.S.–EU Trade Conflict Market Overview Market DriverCurrent SituationPotential Market ImpactTrump tariff threatNew tariffs against EU possibleBearish risk assetsEU–Canada proposalAssociate membership being exploredTrade diversificationExisting CETAAlready provides extensive EU–Canada trade accessSupports Canada–EU commerceEU treaty positionAssociate membership not currently establishedSignificant uncertaintyU.S.–EU tradeLarge two-way commercial relationshipHigh economic exposureCanadaSeeking broader international partnershipsPotential trade reorientationEuropean manufacturingExposed to U.S. demandTariff-sensitiveU.S. consumersPotentially exposed to higher import costsInflation riskEUR/USDSensitive to trade and growth expectationsVolatility riskGlobal equitiesVulnerable to tariff escalationRisk-off potential Bullish Sentiment Although the immediate headline is negative for global trade sentiment, several factors could limit the economic impact. 1. The EU–Canada Relationship Could Expand The proposed Canadian associate membership is designed to deepen an already significant relationship. Canada and the EU already operate under CETA, their comprehensive economic and trade agreement. The proposed arrangement would move cooperation into a broader strategic framework covering areas such as energy, technology, critical minerals and defence. For Canada, deeper European integration could provide additional avenues for trade diversification. For Europe, Canada offers resources and strategic capabilities in areas including critical minerals, energy and Arctic cooperation. 2. Canada Is Looking to Diversify Its Trade The proposal comes as Canada seeks to reduce its dependence on the United States. The U.S. remains Canada's overwhelmingly dominant trading partner, meaning any deterioration in bilateral relations creates a powerful incentive for Ottawa to develop alternative markets. Reuters and other reporting describe the EU initiative as part of a broader effort to strengthen Canada's international economic relationships. Greater Canadian access to European markets could eventually provide additional demand for Canadian commodities and manufactured goods. 3. Europe Has an Interest in Critical Minerals Canada possesses significant natural resources that are strategically important to European industry. Closer EU–Canada cooperation could strengthen European access to critical minerals and energy resources while reducing reliance on individual external suppliers. That could become increasingly important for European manufacturing, electric vehicles, batteries and advanced technology. 4. Trade Diversification Could Reduce Long-Term Concentration Risk The broader economic argument behind the EU–Canada initiative is diversification. Canada already trades extensively with Europe, while the EU has been attempting to strengthen supply chains and economic-security relationships with trusted partners. The proposed “Alliance for the Future” would seek to expand those links beyond the existing trade agreement. If implemented successfully, the arrangement could eventually create additional trade routes rather than simply redirecting existing commerce. Bearish Sentiment The immediate market concern is that the dispute could escalate into another major tariff confrontation. 1. Trump Has Threatened New EU Tariffs Trump has explicitly warned that the United States could impose “very serious tariffs” on European goods if he regards the Canadian initiative as hostile. He has also raised the possibility of reducing or stopping trade with Europe in certain areas. No new tariff schedule covering the EU has been established solely as a result of this latest statement, meaning the market is currently pricing risk rather than a confirmed new tariff regime. That distinction is important. 2. European Exporters Could Face New Costs Europe's major industrial economies remain heavily dependent on international trade. Automobiles, machinery, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, industrial equipment and luxury goods are among the sectors that can be sensitive to tariff barriers. If additional U.S. tariffs were introduced, European exporters could face higher costs accessing the American market. The effect would depend heavily on the eventual tariff rate, product coverage and whether exemptions were negotiated. 3. U.S. Import Costs Could Also Increase Tariffs do not affect exporters alone. Higher import duties can increase the landed cost of foreign goods entering the United States. Depending on the products affected and how businesses respond, that can create additional inflation pressure for U.S. consumers and companies. This becomes particularly important because the Federal Reserve has recently shifted toward a more restrictive policy stance. Additional tariff-driven inflation could therefore complicate the U.S. interest-rate outlook. 4. Global Supply Chains Could Become More Fragmented The bigger issue may be the cumulative effect of repeated trade barriers. Businesses increasingly have to consider not just production costs but also: Tariff exposure Country-of-origin rules Supply-chain concentration Shipping routes Political risk Currency volatility Export restrictions A more fragmented trading system can increase operating costs and reduce the efficiency of international supply chains. 5. Canada–EU Associate Membership Is Still Undefined There is another major uncertainty. Associate membership is not currently an established EU treaty category. Von der Leyen's proposal would require further negotiations and agreement among EU member states. The precise rights and obligations — including market access, political participation and other forms of cooperation — have not been fully defined. Therefore, markets should not treat Canada becoming an EU associate member as an established outcome. Why This Matters for the Dollar The latest development comes at a particularly important time for the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve has just raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%, while signalling that another increase could occur before the end of 2026. A new tariff escalation could therefore create two opposing forces for the dollar. The first is safe-haven demand. If investors become concerned about global trade and economic growth, capital can move toward traditionally defensive assets, including U.S. government securities and the dollar. The second is inflation risk. If tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, U.S. inflation could become more persistent. That could keep U.S. interest rates higher for longer, potentially supporting the dollar but simultaneously putting pressure on economic growth. The result could be significant volatility rather than a simple one-directional currency move. European Markets Face a Complicated Equation For the euro, the calculation is equally complex. Additional U.S. tariffs could reduce European exports to the world's largest economy, potentially weighing on industrial activity and corporate earnings. However, greater European trade diversification could eventually reduce the bloc's dependence on the United States. The Canada initiative is therefore potentially part of a much broader restructuring of Europe's international economic relationships. Von der Leyen described the proposed relationship as an effort to move beyond the existing trading relationship toward a broader strategic partnership covering economic security, energy, manufacturing, AI and critical minerals. Canada Becomes the Key Swing Factor Canada is at the centre of the latest dispute. Ottawa is already attempting to diversify its international relationships as tensions with Washington increase. Prime Minister Mark Carney has described the desired relationship with Europe as a “unique alliance,” while also making clear that Canada is not currently seeking full EU membership. The distinction between full membership, associate membership and an enhanced strategic partnership will therefore be critical. Canada already has a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU. The proposed initiative is primarily about expanding that relationship into a much broader strategic framework. What Traders Are Watching Next Financial markets will be watching several developments closely: Whether the U.S. announces specific EU tariff measures The eventual details of the proposed Canada–EU arrangement EU member-state reaction Canada–U.S. trade negotiations EUR/USD volatility USD/CAD volatility European industrial data U.S. inflation expectations U.S. Treasury yields European equity markets Canadian commodity exports EU–Canada negotiations ahead of their next summit The most important distinction for traders is between rhetoric and implementation. Trump's latest comments create a clear risk premium, but actual economic consequences would depend on whether new tariffs are formally introduced, which products are targeted and how the EU responds. Currency Hedger View Trade disputes can quickly become currency events. For Canadian businesses, increased European trade could increase exposure to EUR/CAD alongside the existing USD/CAD relationship. For European companies, the possibility of additional U.S. tariffs creates uncertainty around future dollar revenues, import costs and international payment flows. For American businesses, tariffs on European imports could increase the dollar cost of goods purchased from the EU, while exporters could face retaliatory measures from trading partners. The result is a potentially more volatile FX environment in which companies may need to manage both trade-policy risk and currency risk simultaneously. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View The latest Trump–EU confrontation is significant because it connects three separate developments: U.S. tariff policy, Canada's attempt to diversify its trade relationships, and Europe's push for deeper strategic partnerships. The immediate bearish risk is further escalation of tariffs, potentially damaging trade flows and increasing costs for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. The counterargument is that Canada and the EU already have a substantial trading relationship through CETA, while broader cooperation could eventually create new supply chains and markets. The biggest uncertainty is therefore what happens next. Trump's threat is clear, but the proposed Canadian associate membership remains an initiative rather than an established EU status. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets “Markets will be watching the difference between political rhetoric and actual trade policy. The Canada–EU initiative has the potential to reshape trade relationships over time, but the immediate risk comes from whether the United States responds with concrete tariffs. For currencies, equities and commodities, the uncertainty itself can become a major source of volatility before any new tariff is actually implemented.” Bottom Line President Donald Trump's threat of very serious tariffs against the European Union has introduced a fresh source of uncertainty into global trade markets after Brussels proposed opening the door for Canada to become the EU's first associate member. The proposed associate status does not currently exist under EU treaties, and its eventual structure would require further negotiations and approval by EU member states. For markets, the key risks are clear: Higher U.S.–EU tariffs could pressure European exporters, raise import costs and disrupt global supply chains. At the same time, deeper Canada–EU cooperation could accelerate trade diversification and create new commercial opportunities across energy, critical minerals, technology, manufacturing and defence. The next major catalyst will be whether Washington moves from tariff threats to specific measures. Until then, traders should monitor EUR/USD, USD/CAD, European equities, U.S. Treasury yields and industrial commodities for signs that the latest political confrontation is beginning to produce measurable economic effects. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Currency Hedger Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Forex Trading

September 17, 2026

US Dollar Surges to Seven-Week High as Hawkish Fed Signals More Rate Hikes and Inflation Risks Persist

Today Markets Analysis The U.S. dollar remained around 100.3 on Thursday, holding close to a seven-week high after the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate increase in three years and signalled that monetary policy may need to tighten further. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16. The decision was unanimous and marked the first Fed rate hike since July 2023. Policymakers also raised their year-end rate projections, with the median outlook implying another increase before the end of 2026. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised that inflation remains too high and that policymakers are focused on achieving a more timely return toward the central bank's 2% objective. Persistent inflation, resilient economic activity and elevated energy prices have all complicated the outlook for monetary policy. The immediate result has been a renewed advantage for the dollar, as higher U.S. interest rates increase the relative return available from dollar-denominated assets. At the same time, President Donald Trump has publicly called for U.S. interest rates to be reduced to 1% or lower, creating a sharp contrast between the administration's preferred rate path and the Fed's current inflation-focused approach. U.S. Dollar Market Overview Market DriverCurrent SituationPotential ImpactDollar IndexAround 100.3BullishFed rate3.75%-4.00%BullishFed outlookFurther tightening signalledBullishU.S. inflationStill elevatedBullishTreasury yields10-year above 5%BullishOilAbove $100/barrelMixedBoJExpected to raise rates FridayBearish riskBoEPolicy decision ThursdayFX volatilityPolitical rate pressureCalls for much lower ratesLonger-term uncertainty Bullish Sentiment The dollar currently has several powerful fundamental supports. 1. Federal Reserve Has Turned More Hawkish The biggest support for the dollar is the Federal Reserve itself. The September rate increase moved the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%, while the Fed's projections indicate that policymakers expect another increase before the end of the year. This represents a significant change from the rate-cut expectations that dominated parts of the market earlier in 2026. Higher rates generally increase the attractiveness of dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, particularly when other major central banks are not moving as aggressively. 2. Inflation Remains Too High The Fed's decision was heavily influenced by persistent inflation. Warsh said inflation remains too high and that recent data do not provide sufficient evidence that underlying price pressures are returning rapidly enough toward the 2% target. That creates a potentially important feedback loop for the dollar: Higher inflation → tighter Fed policy → higher yields → stronger dollar. If inflation remains elevated, markets may continue pricing a higher U.S. terminal rate. 3. Treasury Yields Are Supporting the Dollar U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply alongside the Fed's hawkish shift. The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, reaching its highest level in many years, while shorter-dated yields also rose as markets adjusted to the possibility of additional tightening. Higher yields can attract international capital toward U.S. assets, creating another source of dollar demand. 4. The U.S. Economy Remains Resilient The Fed's willingness to raise rates despite the potential economic consequences reflects policymakers' assessment that the economy remains sufficiently resilient. Strong consumer spending, capital investment and economic activity have all been highlighted as factors supporting continued monetary tightening. If U.S. growth continues to outperform other major economies, the relative attractiveness of the dollar could remain elevated. 5. Oil Prices Are Still Creating Inflation Risk Although crude oil prices have eased from recent highs, oil remains above $100 per barrel. The energy market continues to be affected by Middle East supply disruptions, including damage to Saudi infrastructure. Any renewed deterioration in energy flows could push crude prices higher again. That would potentially strengthen the inflation argument for the Fed and provide another source of support for the dollar. Bearish Sentiment Despite the dollar's current strength, several factors could eventually limit its upside. 1. Bank of Japan Tightening The biggest immediate challenge may come from Japan. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate on Friday to a level not seen in approximately three decades, while signalling that further tightening remains possible. A more hawkish BoJ could strengthen the yen and put downward pressure on USD/JPY, potentially limiting broader dollar gains. The yen has already experienced substantial volatility as markets reassess the end of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. 2. Policy Divergence Could Narrow The dollar's current advantage is largely based on the interest-rate differential between the United States and other major economies. If the Fed continues tightening but the BoJ and European central banks begin moving more aggressively, that differential could eventually narrow. The result would be less support for the dollar from relative interest-rate expectations. 3. Political Pressure for Lower Rates President Donald Trump has publicly called for rates to fall to 1% or below, arguing that lower borrowing costs would benefit the U.S. economy. The Fed's current policy direction is substantially different. The central bank has maintained that its decisions are focused on its inflation and employment mandates rather than political preferences. Warsh has also emphasised the Fed's commitment to price stability. For currency markets, the important issue is not the political argument itself but whether expectations surrounding future Fed independence and policy direction change. 4. A Future Inflation Decline Could Reverse Dollar Momentum The dollar's current strength is closely linked to expectations for higher U.S. rates. If inflation begins falling more rapidly, the Fed could eventually have less reason to continue tightening. That could lead Treasury yields lower and remove an important pillar of dollar support. 5. Safe-Haven Demand Can Be Two-Sided Geopolitical uncertainty has supported demand for the dollar as a traditional safe-haven currency. However, geopolitical shocks are also contributing to higher oil prices and inflation. If markets begin to interpret energy disruptions primarily as a threat to U.S. and global economic growth rather than as an inflationary shock, the dollar's response could become more complicated. The Fed Versus the Market The most important theme for the dollar is the changing interest-rate narrative. Earlier in 2026, the market had been positioned around the possibility of lower U.S. rates. The Fed has now moved in the opposite direction. The September decision demonstrated that policymakers are willing to accept higher borrowing costs in order to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. That has forced markets to reconsider the expected path of U.S. monetary policy. For the dollar, this is significant because currency markets are driven not only by the current interest-rate level but by expectations for where rates are going next. The U.S. Dollar and Global Central Banks The next phase of dollar trading will be heavily influenced by what other central banks do. The Bank of England's September monetary-policy decision is due on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its decision on Friday. This creates an unusually important 48-hour period for the major currency markets. If the BoE remains relatively cautious while the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, the dollar could retain an interest-rate advantage against sterling. Meanwhile, a BoJ rate hike could create significant volatility in USD/JPY. Key Currency Relationships EUR/USD:The euro could remain vulnerable if the Fed maintains a significantly tighter policy stance than the European Central Bank. GBP/USD:The pound faces a particularly important test from the Bank of England's decision and its guidance on future policy. USD/JPY:This is potentially the most volatile major pair as markets assess whether the BoJ is entering a more sustained tightening cycle. USD/CHF:The Swiss franc remains another important defensive currency, particularly if global risk sentiment deteriorates. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major dollar catalysts include: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision Bank of England monetary-policy decision U.S. inflation data U.S. employment data Treasury yields Federal Reserve speeches Oil prices U.S. consumer spending Global risk sentiment Further changes in Fed rate expectations The most important question is whether the dollar can sustain its seven-week high after the initial reaction to the Fed decision. If U.S. yields remain elevated and inflation proves persistent, dollar demand could remain strong. If inflation begins cooling and other central banks become more aggressive, the current U.S. rate advantage could begin to narrow. Currency Hedger View The dollar's renewed strength has significant implications for companies operating across multiple currencies. A stronger dollar can increase the cost of U.S.-dollar-denominated imports for businesses whose revenues are generated in euros, pounds or other currencies. At the same time, exporters receiving dollars can benefit from converting those revenues into weaker local currencies. For companies with significant international payment exposure, the key issue is therefore not simply whether the dollar rises or falls, but how quickly the exchange rate moves and how long the trend persists. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View The U.S. dollar has regained significant momentum after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years. The immediate bullish argument is straightforward: higher U.S. rates, elevated inflation, rising Treasury yields and expectations for another Fed hike are supporting the dollar. However, the outlook is not one-directional. A more aggressive Bank of Japan could strengthen the yen, while declining U.S. inflation could eventually reduce the need for further Fed tightening. Political pressure for lower rates also remains a factor surrounding the broader policy debate, although the Fed's current decisions remain focused on its mandate. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets “The dollar has been given a fresh fundamental catalyst by the Fed's decision to raise rates, but the next stage of the move will depend on whether inflation continues to justify tighter policy. With Treasury yields elevated and the Bank of Japan preparing to tighten, currency markets are entering a period where interest-rate divergence could produce significant volatility across the major pairs.” Bottom Line The U.S. dollar is holding near a seven-week high around 100.3 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% and signalled that another increase could follow before the end of 2026. The combination of persistent inflation, elevated Treasury yields and a more hawkish Fed has strengthened the dollar's near-term fundamental backdrop. However, traders now face several competing forces. The Bank of Japan's expected rate increase, future U.S. inflation data, Treasury yields and the trajectory of global energy prices will determine whether the dollar can extend its recent advance. For FX markets, the central theme remains interest-rate divergence. As long as U.S. rates remain comparatively high and the Fed continues to signal that inflation requires restrictive policy, the dollar has an important source of support. But any meaningful change in inflation, Fed expectations or policy from other major central banks could quickly increase volatility. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Currency Hedger Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 17, 2026

Platinum Price Falls Toward $1,780 as Hawkish Fed, Strong Dollar and High Oil Prices Clash With Critical Supply Deficits

Today Markets Analysis Platinum futures remained under pressure around the $1,780-per-ounce area, with the precious metal trading close to two-week lows as a stronger U.S. dollar and a more hawkish Federal Reserve offset longer-term supply concerns. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, while policymakers indicated that another increase could come before the end of 2026. The resulting rise in yields and dollar strength has increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals. Platinum has nevertheless retained an important structural support factor: tight physical supply. The World Platinum Investment Council's latest September outlook forecasts a modest 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026, largely reflecting investment outflows during the first half of the year. However, inventories remain critically depleted following several years of substantial deficits. WPIC estimates that above-ground stocks could end 2026 at only around 3.4 months of global demand cover. That creates a market where short-term macroeconomic pressure is bearish, while the longer-term physical supply picture remains considerably tighter. Platinum Market Overview Market DriverCurrent SituationMarket ImpactPlatinum priceAround $1,780/ozBearish near termFederal Reserve25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%BearishU.S. dollarStrengthening after Fed decisionBearishU.S. yieldsHigher-rate environmentBearishOilStill above $100/barrelMixed/Bullish2026 platinum balance265,000 oz surplus forecastBearishAbove-ground stocksCritically depletedBullish2027-2030 supply outlookPersistent deficits expectedBullishIndustrial demandAI, hydrogen and other applicationsBullishBEV transitionReduces autocatalyst demandBearish Bullish Sentiment Despite the recent decline, platinum retains several powerful fundamental supports. 1. Structural Supply Constraints The most important bullish argument is that the 2026 surplus does not represent a return to comfortable physical supply conditions. WPIC says the forecast 2026 surplus follows three consecutive years of significant deficits and is not large enough to meaningfully rebuild depleted above-ground inventories. This distinction is crucial. A market can move into a temporary annual surplus while inventories remain historically low. If demand rises unexpectedly or mine supply suffers another disruption, available metal can tighten rapidly. 2. Longer-Term Deficits Remain a Major Support WPIC's June five-year outlook expects platinum market deficits to average approximately 331,000 ounces per year from 2026 through 2030. This provides a fundamentally different picture from the short-term 2026 surplus. The market may have a temporary surplus this year, but the longer-term supply-demand balance remains structurally constrained. 3. Industrial Demand Is Expanding Platinum is not purely a precious-metal investment asset. It is also an industrial metal with applications across emissions control, hydrogen technologies, glass production and other advanced industrial processes. WPIC's September outlook forecasts 5% growth in industrial demand during 2026, which it expects to offset a 4% decline in automotive demand. The growing use of platinum in emerging technologies provides an additional source of demand that is separate from traditional jewellery and investment flows. 4. AI and Data-Centre Applications The platinum market is also gaining exposure to the rapidly expanding technology infrastructure sector. WPIC has highlighted platinum's increasing strategic importance in AI and data-centre infrastructure, adding another potential source of industrial demand beyond its traditional applications. This is particularly important because it creates potential demand growth from sectors that were not historically major platinum consumers. 5. Inflation Remains a Longer-Term Risk Oil prices remain elevated, with crude still above the $100-per-barrel level cited in the market update. Although easing concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions have reduced some of the immediate oil premium, elevated energy costs can continue to feed into inflation expectations. That creates a complicated environment for platinum. Higher inflation can increase pressure on central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy, but persistent inflation and commodity-price volatility can also increase interest in scarce real assets. Bearish Sentiment The immediate macroeconomic environment remains a significant obstacle for platinum. 1. Hawkish Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve's September rate increase is one of the clearest short-term bearish factors. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, while the latest projections showed most policymakers expecting another increase before year-end. Higher interest rates increase the relative attractiveness of yield-bearing assets. That raises the opportunity cost of holding platinum, which generates no interest income. 2. Stronger U.S. Dollar The dollar strengthened following the Fed decision, adding another layer of pressure to dollar-denominated platinum. A stronger dollar generally makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for international buyers. This can reduce demand at the margin and place additional pressure on futures prices. 3. 2026 Surplus Forecast The latest WPIC numbers provide a genuine bearish argument for the current year. WPIC now forecasts a 265,000-ounce platinum surplus in 2026, reversing its previous expectation of a deficit. The change has been driven largely by investment outflows during the first half of the year. The surplus therefore cannot simply be ignored. If investment demand remains weak, the market could continue to experience periods of excess availability despite the longer-term structural deficit. 4. Electric Vehicles Challenge Autocatalyst Demand The transition toward battery-electric vehicles represents a longer-term headwind for platinum. BEVs do not require traditional platinum-based catalytic converters, meaning continued growth in battery-electric vehicle adoption could gradually reduce one of platinum's most established sources of automotive demand. WPIC currently forecasts a 4% decline in automotive platinum demand during 2026, although industrial demand is expected to more than offset that decline. 5. Higher Prices Encourage Recycling Higher platinum prices can eventually stimulate additional recycling. As the value of platinum rises, recycling economics become more attractive, potentially increasing secondary supply and limiting the speed at which prices can rise. This represents another reason why the market's structural deficit does not automatically translate into a continuous price rally. Platinum's Two-Speed Market The platinum market is increasingly divided between two competing narratives. The short-term narrative is macroeconomic. The Fed is tightening, the dollar is stronger and yields are higher. These factors can pressure precious metals and have already contributed to platinum's recent weakness. The longer-term narrative is physical supply. Years of deficits have depleted above-ground stocks, while new mine supply remains constrained and industrial applications are expanding. That creates the possibility of substantial price volatility in both directions. The latest WPIC research notes that platinum and gold have been highly correlated since 2025, meaning macroeconomic expectations can dominate the near-term price action even when platinum's underlying physical fundamentals remain tight. What Traders Are Watching Next Platinum traders will be watching several variables closely: U.S. dollar direction Treasury yields Further Federal Reserve rate expectations Investment and ETF flows Platinum mine supply Recycling volumes Automotive demand Hydrogen-sector investment AI and data-centre demand Gold and broader precious-metal performance Global economic growth Oil prices and inflation expectations The next major catalyst is likely to remain the interaction between monetary policy and investment demand. If markets begin pricing fewer future Fed hikes, platinum could regain support alongside the wider precious-metals complex. Conversely, another leg higher in yields and the dollar could keep platinum under pressure even if physical supply remains tight. Currency Hedger View Platinum's price is particularly sensitive to movements in the U.S. dollar because it is traded internationally in dollars. For businesses purchasing platinum, industrial users, manufacturers and companies exposed to commodity-linked revenues, the combination of metal-price volatility and FX volatility can materially alter effective costs. A weaker dollar could provide support to platinum by improving purchasing power for non-U.S. buyers, while renewed dollar strength could compound downward pressure. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Platinum is currently caught between a hawkish monetary-policy environment and a structurally constrained physical market. The short-term bearish case is straightforward: higher U.S. rates, a stronger dollar and weaker investment demand are pressuring the metal. The bullish case is more structural. Above-ground inventories remain depleted, industrial demand is expanding and WPIC continues to expect substantial deficits over the medium term despite the temporary 2026 surplus. This makes the $1,780 area particularly important to watch, with traders likely to focus on whether platinum can stabilise as the initial reaction to the Fed decision fades. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets “Platinum is facing a classic conflict between macroeconomic pressure and physical fundamentals. The Fed has made the short-term environment more difficult for non-yielding metals, but the underlying supply picture has not disappeared. The key question is whether weaker investment demand can continue to outweigh depleted inventories and growing industrial demand.” Bottom Line Platinum remains close to two-week lows around the $1,780-per-ounce area, with the stronger U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve tightening weighing on the metal. The latest data, however, shows why the longer-term platinum story remains more complicated. WPIC expects a 265,000-ounce surplus in 2026, but inventories are forecast to remain critically depleted after years of substantial deficits. Beyond 2026, WPIC expects platinum deficits to average approximately 331,000 ounces annually through 2030. The market therefore has two competing forces: near-term monetary tightening versus longer-term physical scarcity. For traders, the most important signals will be the dollar, Treasury yields, Fed expectations, investment flows and evidence of changes in industrial and automotive demand. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Currency Hedger Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Energies

September 17, 2026

European Natural Gas Prices Slide Below €78 but Winter Supply Crisis Risks Keep TTF Gas Near Multi-Year Highs

Today Markets Analysis European natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday, falling below €78/MWh, but the decline remains relatively modest against the scale of the supply risks facing the European market. The Dutch TTF benchmark remains close to multi-year highs as traders assess whether Europe can rebuild gas inventories sufficiently before the 2026/27 heating season. The central concern is increasingly clear: Europe is entering winter with unusually low storage while global LNG supply remains constrained. EU gas storage was around 68.5% full as of September 14, substantially below the roughly 80.6% level recorded at the same point last year and below the five-year average. At the same time, disruptions affecting LNG flows through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have tightened the global market, forcing European and Asian buyers to compete more aggressively for available cargoes. Wood Mackenzie has described Europe's position as its weakest winter storage position in almost two decades. European Natural Gas Market Overview Market FactorCurrent SituationPotential ImpactEuropean gas storageAround 68% fullBullishWinter demandHeating season approachingBullishLNG supplyPersian Gulf disruption continuesBullishAsian LNG demandCompeting for available cargoesBullishGermany storageBelow desired levelsBullishEuropean renewablesPotentially stronger winter generationBearishWeather outlookMild conditions could reduce demandBearishCurrent TTF pricesBelow €78/MWh after recent highsMixed The European Commission has stressed that there is no immediate EU gas-security crisis, pointing to increased LNG import capacity, diversified supply and structurally lower gas demand compared with previous years. However, it is also monitoring the situation closely because Middle Eastern disruptions and low storage levels are creating significant price volatility. Bullish Sentiment Several factors continue to support European natural gas prices. 1. Low European Storage Storage is the market's biggest structural concern. At roughly 68% full, European inventories remain well below the levels seen during a normal pre-winter build. The latest tracker data shows Europe would need to add approximately 22 percentage points to reach a 90% storage level by November 1. That leaves the market with considerably less flexibility if temperatures become colder than expected. 2. Persian Gulf LNG Disruptions The LNG market remains particularly sensitive to developments around the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has removed a significant quantity of LNG from the global market, while Qatar's LNG production remains affected. ACER estimates that if Qatari production remained offline into December, the resulting global LNG shortfall could reach approximately 26 bcm, potentially increasing European spot LNG demand substantially. 3. Europe and Asia Are Competing for LNG Europe is not competing for LNG alone. Asian buyers are also seeking supply as they prepare for their own winter demand. This creates a potentially powerful feedback mechanism for TTF prices: if Asian LNG demand accelerates, European buyers may have to pay increasingly competitive prices to attract flexible cargoes. That could make winter restocking considerably more expensive. 4. Germany Could Become a Major Buyer Germany remains an important variable for the European gas market. Reuters reported on September 16 that Germany's economy minister was preparing market incentives designed to encourage higher gas storage levels ahead of winter. The proposal is intended to encourage private-sector participation rather than direct government gas purchases. Any acceleration in German purchasing could add another layer of demand to an already tight European market. Bearish Sentiment Despite the supply risks, there are also important factors capable of limiting or reversing the gas-price rally. 1. Lower European Gas Demand European gas consumption has structurally declined compared with the years preceding the energy crisis. Greater renewable generation, energy efficiency and weaker industrial gas demand have reduced the amount of natural gas required across the region. The European Commission says the EU is better prepared than during the 2021/22 crisis because of increased LNG capacity, diversification and lower demand. 2. Potentially Mild Winter Weather could ultimately determine whether low storage becomes a genuine physical supply problem or primarily a pricing problem. Current forecasts point toward the possibility of a relatively mild European winter, while an expected strong El Niño could increase wind generation and reduce heating demand in some parts of Europe. If temperatures remain moderate, European inventories could prove sufficient despite starting the winter at historically low levels. 3. Renewable Energy Could Reduce Gas-Fired Power Demand Germany and other European economies have increasingly relied on renewable electricity generation. Higher wind output during the winter could reduce gas-fired power generation and therefore reduce withdrawals from underground storage. That creates an important bearish scenario for TTF: low storage does not necessarily translate into a physical shortage if demand remains subdued. 4. Europe Has More LNG Infrastructure Europe's ability to respond to supply disruptions is significantly greater than it was during the 2021/22 energy crisis. The European Commission highlights expanded LNG import capacity and greater supply diversification as important buffers against disruptions. This means the market can potentially respond to shortages through additional cargoes from the United States and other LNG suppliers, although the price required to attract those cargoes could remain elevated. The Germany Factor Germany is particularly important because of its size and role in Europe's industrial and energy system. Any decision by German utilities or policymakers to accelerate gas purchasing could provide additional support to TTF prices. Reuters reported that Berlin is considering market incentives to increase storage ahead of winter rather than directly entering the market as a major buyer. For traders, the key question is therefore not simply whether Germany buys more gas, but how quickly it needs to do so and at what price. Global LNG Competition Is Becoming the Critical Variable The European gas market increasingly needs to be viewed as part of a global LNG market rather than an isolated regional market. Europe needs additional cargoes. Asia needs additional cargoes. At the same time, Middle Eastern supply remains disrupted. That combination can produce substantial price volatility even without a physical shortage. The market has already demonstrated how quickly TTF prices can react to changes in LNG availability. Analysts at ING have highlighted tight global LNG balances, storage around 68% and the difficulty Europe faces in reaching its lower pre-winter storage objective. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major variables for European natural gas include: EU gas-storage injections Germany's purchasing and storage policy Qatar LNG production and export developments Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions U.S. LNG export availability Asian LNG demand European temperature forecasts European wind-power generation TTF front-month versus winter-contract spreads The storage injection rate is particularly important. If inventories continue increasing rapidly, the market could begin pricing out some winter-supply risk. Conversely, a slowdown in injections while LNG disruptions persist could place renewed upward pressure on TTF. Currency Hedger View For businesses exposed to European energy costs, the natural-gas story also has a significant foreign-exchange component. Elevated European gas prices can affect inflation expectations, corporate margins, trade balances and ultimately the euro. Companies importing LNG or paying energy costs in euros while generating revenues in other currencies can therefore face a combined commodity and FX exposure. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View European gas prices are pulling back, but the underlying market remains exceptionally sensitive to supply developments. The bearish case rests on lower structural European gas demand, stronger renewable generation and the possibility of a mild winter. The bullish case is centred on historically low storage, constrained LNG availability, Persian Gulf disruption and competition from Asian buyers. The crucial distinction for traders is that Europe does not necessarily need to run out of gas for prices to rise sharply. A shortage of flexible LNG cargoes can force European buyers to pay significantly more to secure supply. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets “The European gas market is increasingly trading the risk of insufficient flexibility rather than simply the risk of physical shortage. Storage remains low, LNG supply is constrained and Europe is competing with Asia for cargoes. If winter demand rises faster than expected, the market could react violently because there is far less room for error than in a normal year.” Bottom Line European natural gas prices have eased below €78/MWh, but the decline does not remove the underlying winter supply risk. With European storage around 68% full, disrupted LNG flows and competition from Asian buyers, the market remains vulnerable to further volatility. The biggest bearish counterweights are lower structural gas demand, expanding renewable generation and the possibility of mild winter weather. For traders, the critical indicators are therefore storage injections, LNG flows, Asian demand, German purchasing activity and winter weather forecasts. If those variables deteriorate simultaneously, European gas could quickly return toward its recent multi-year highs. If supply improves and winter demand remains subdued, the market has room to unwind some of its risk premium. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Currency Hedger Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Coffee Prices Slide to 2.5-Month Low as Record Global Supply, Brazil Rains and Rising Vietnam Exports Pressure Futures

Today Markets Analysis: Coffee futures extended their three-week decline on Wednesday, with arabica falling to a 2.5-month low as expectations for abundant global supplies continue to outweigh support from historically low arabica inventories and potential El Niño-related crop risks. December ICE NY Arabica coffee closed at 281.10 cents per pound, down 2.10 points, or 0.74%, while November ICE Robusta coffee fell 51 points to 3,419, down 1.47%. The market is being pressured by forecasts for record global production, strong Brazilian exports, improving growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, and rising robusta inventories. However, ICE arabica stocks have fallen to their lowest level in 27 years, creating an important bullish counterweight. Coffee Futures Remain Under Pressure Both major coffee contracts declined on Wednesday, extending the market's three-week retreat. ContractCloseChangeDec 2026 Arabica Coffee281.10¢/lb-2.10Nov 2026 Robusta Coffee3,419-51 Arabica has now fallen to a 2.5-month low, while robusta recently reached a three-month low as traders increasingly focus on improving global supply prospects. The contrast between extremely low arabica inventories and expectations for record future production is becoming one of the market's most important themes. Bullish Sentiment Several factors could provide support for coffee prices: ICE arabica inventories fell to just 217,646 bags, the lowest level in 27 years. El Niño could disrupt Brazil's 2026/27 crop if it delays rainfall during the critical September-October flowering period. Brazil's next crop remains vulnerable to weather volatility, particularly if rainfall patterns become erratic during flowering and fruit development. The US Climate Prediction Center has warned that the current El Niño pattern could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. A combination of floods, droughts and temperature fluctuations could create production risks across South America and Asia. Extremely low arabica exchange stocks could become increasingly significant if physical demand strengthens or the next Brazilian crop disappoints. Any deterioration in Brazil's flowering conditions could quickly change expectations surrounding the currently projected record 2026/27 crop. These factors mean that the current bearish supply narrative remains vulnerable to a significant weather-driven reversal. Bearish Sentiment The immediate fundamentals remain heavily weighted toward increased supply: The International Coffee Organization expects record 2025/26 global production of 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year on year. ICO expects global consumption to fall 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, creating a 3 million-bag global surplus. The surplus would be the first global coffee surplus in five years. USDA forecasts 2026/27 global production to rise 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags. USDA expects global arabica production to increase 12% year on year. USDA forecasts global ending stocks to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast by USDA at a record 71.9 million bags, up 14%. Brazil's August coffee exports reached a record 4.155 million bags, up 31% year on year. Vietnam's January-August 2026 coffee exports increased 13.7% to 1.33 MMT. ICE robusta inventories increased to a 9.5-month high of 5,043 lots. The combination of strong current exports and expectations for another record global crop is keeping significant pressure on prices. Brazil Rainfall Creates a Bearish Supply Signal Brazil is currently one of the most important factors behind the decline in arabica coffee. The country's harvest is nearing completion, meaning increasing volumes are reaching export markets. At the same time, weather conditions are improving the outlook for the next crop. Somar Meteorologia reported that 59.4 mm of rain fell in Minas Gerais during the week ending September 13, equivalent to 1,212% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil's main arabica-producing region. The substantial rainfall is potentially beneficial for flowering and early crop development, creating a bearish influence on prices if favourable conditions persist. However, timing is critical. Coffee trees require appropriate rainfall during flowering and subsequent fruit development, meaning the market will be closely monitoring whether the current moisture levels translate into improved crop potential. Brazil Exports Reach Record August Levels Brazilian exports are adding further supply to the international market. Cecafé reported that total Brazilian coffee exports in August increased 31% year on year to 4.155 million bags, the highest August total on record. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazil's Trade Ministry separately reported that August coffee exports increased 44.6% year on year to 206,618 tonnes, the highest level in eight months. The increase in exports comes as the Brazilian harvest concludes, creating additional availability at a time when traders are already anticipating higher production during the next season. This combination represents an important near-term bearish factor. Vietnam Supplies Continue to Increase Vietnam is also adding to global coffee availability. The country is the world's largest robusta producer, making its export performance particularly important for the robusta market. Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that January-August 2026 coffee exports increased 13.7% year on year to 1.33 MMT. For full-year 2025, Vietnamese coffee exports increased 17.5% to 1.58 MMT. Production is also expected to increase. Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to rise 6% to 1.76 MMT, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. Improved rainfall has also increased soil moisture across Vietnam's Central Highlands, supporting cherry development in the country's most important coffee-growing region. For robusta traders, the combination of higher exports, rising production and increasing exchange inventories remains a significant bearish signal. Arabica and Robusta Inventories Are Moving in Opposite Directions Inventory data provides one of the clearest contrasts in the coffee market. ICE arabica inventories fell to 217,646 bags, their lowest level in 27 years. That exceptionally low stock level is potentially bullish because it leaves relatively little exchange-certified inventory available to absorb unexpected supply disruptions or stronger demand. Robusta is showing the opposite trend. ICE robusta inventories climbed to 5,043 lots, a 9.5-month high. This divergence helps explain why arabica and robusta can respond differently to the same global supply story. The market is therefore watching not only total global production, but also where the available coffee is located and what type of coffee is available. El Niño Creates a Major Weather Wildcard Weather remains the largest potential challenge to the bearish production narrative. The current El Niño pattern could affect coffee-growing regions in both South America and Asia. For Brazil, coffee traders are particularly focused on September and October because rainfall during this period is important for flowering. Commercial has warned that El Niño could delay Brazilian rains during this critical period, potentially damaging the 2026/27 crop. The US Climate Prediction Center has also said that the current El Niño could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. If the weather pattern produces prolonged drought, excessive rainfall or damaging temperature fluctuations, current record-production forecasts could be revised lower. For now, however, favourable rainfall in key Brazilian growing areas is providing the market with a more comfortable supply outlook. Global Production Forecasts Point to Abundant Supply The global production outlook remains the strongest bearish argument. The ICO expects 2025/26 production to reach a record 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year on year. At the same time, consumption is expected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That leaves an estimated 3 million-bag surplus, the first global surplus in five years. The USDA's outlook for 2026/27 is even larger. It forecasts global production of 189.7 million bags, an increase of 6% and another record. The USDA expects arabica production to increase 12%, although robusta output is forecast to decline slightly. World ending stocks are also expected to increase to 26.3 million bags. The scale of these forecasts means that coffee prices will need evidence of either stronger demand or production disruption to overcome the current supply narrative. USDA Brazil Forecast Highlights Production Potential Brazil is at the centre of the USDA's bullish-production assumption. The USDA forecasts a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop for 2026/27, up 14% from the previous season. This forecast is based largely on improved growing conditions. If realised, the increase would represent a substantial addition to global arabica availability. However, the forecast remains dependent on weather conditions over the coming months. The September-October flowering period is particularly important, meaning traders will continue to compare actual rainfall and crop development against the assumptions embedded in the USDA forecast. Demand Signals Remain Secondary to Supply The current price decline is being driven primarily by the supply outlook rather than a dramatic collapse in consumption. The ICO expects global consumption to decline 0.9% in 2025/26, contributing to the projected 3 million-bag surplus. If demand remains softer while production reaches record levels, the surplus could persist. However, coffee consumption is relatively resilient in many major markets, meaning a significant improvement in demand could change the balance. The market will therefore be watching consumption estimates alongside production and inventories as the new season develops. What Traders Are Watching Next The next phase of the coffee market is likely to revolve around several competing forces: Brazilian flowering conditions — particularly rainfall during September and October. Brazil's 2026/27 crop potential — and whether the USDA's 71.9 million-bag forecast remains achievable. ICE arabica inventories — whether the 27-year low continues to decline. Vietnamese production and exports — particularly for robusta. ICE robusta inventories — whether stocks continue rising. Global production forecasts — especially the projected 189.7 million-bag USDA crop. Global consumption — and whether demand begins closing the projected surplus. El Niño developments — including rainfall and temperature effects across Brazil and Asia. Brazilian export volumes — following the record August shipments. The arabica-ro​busta supply balance — as the two markets continue to show different inventory trends. A continuation of favourable weather and strong exports would reinforce the current bearish supply narrative. Conversely, a deterioration in Brazilian flowering conditions combined with further declines in arabica inventories could provide a foundation for a recovery. Currency Hedger View Currency movements can have a significant influence on coffee pricing because the global coffee trade is predominantly conducted in US dollars. For Brazilian and Vietnamese producers, exchange-rate movements can alter the local-currency value of export revenues and influence the incentive to sell physical coffee into international markets. For international roasters, importers and traders, currency volatility can simultaneously affect the effective cost of coffee purchases. The current combination of volatile commodity prices and changing currency conditions therefore makes commodity exposure and FX exposure closely connected. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Coffee is currently facing a strong supply-driven bearish narrative, with record global production forecasts, strong Brazilian exports and improving growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam weighing heavily on futures. However, the market is not without potential sources of support. ICE arabica inventories are at a 27-year low, while the possibility of El Niño disrupting Brazilian flowering conditions remains a significant medium-term risk. The key issue is whether the projected record 2026/27 crop materialises. “Coffee is currently being driven by expectations of abundant supply, but the market is entering a critical weather period for Brazil. Record production forecasts can place significant pressure on prices, yet the exceptionally low arabica inventory level means that any meaningful crop disruption could quickly change the balance.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Coffee futures remain under pressure as record global production forecasts, strong Brazilian exports and improving growing conditions point toward abundant supply. The bearish case is reinforced by the ICO's projected 3 million-bag global surplus, USDA expectations for record 2026/27 production and rising robusta inventories. However, arabica inventories at a 27-year low and the potential for El Niño-related disruption in Brazil provide important counterweights. The key signals to watch are Brazilian flowering conditions, ICE arabica inventories, Vietnam's export pace, robusta stocks, global production revisions and the development of El Niño. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Cocoa Prices Rise as Ghana Crop Risks and West African Weather Concerns Clash With Surging Ivory Coast Supply

Today Markets Analysis: Cocoa futures moved higher on Wednesday as the market continues to trade within a broad sideways range, balancing rising inventories and stronger Ivory Coast production against concerns over Ghana's 2026/27 crop, West African weather risks and cocoa quality. December ICE NY cocoa closed at 5,924, up 56 points, or 0.95%, while December ICE London cocoa #7 gained 63 points to 4,378, up 1.46%. London cocoa received additional support from a weaker British pound, which fell to a 1.5-month low. Because London cocoa is priced in sterling, a weaker pound can improve the relative attractiveness of the contract and contribute to buying interest. The market remains caught between evidence of abundant current supply and growing concerns about the next West African crop. Cocoa Futures Recover as London Market Gains Momentum Both major cocoa contracts finished higher, although London cocoa outperformed New York. ContractCloseChangeDec 2026 NY Cocoa5,924+56Dec 2026 London Cocoa #74,378+63 Cocoa remains within the broad trading range established between last Tuesday's three-week low and the 11.5-month highs recorded around the end of August and beginning of September. The market has therefore not yet established a clear directional breakout. Bullish Sentiment Several factors continue to provide potential support for cocoa prices: Ghana's 2026/27 crop is expected to decline, with the country's Cocoa Board estimating production could fall to 450,000–550,000 MT because of swollen shoot disease, aging farms and adverse weather risks. Ghana's Cocoa Board separately estimates the 2026/27 crop at 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT in 2025/26. Early assessments of the Ivory Coast crop indicate weaker pod development, with preliminary estimates suggesting production around 1.8 MMT, potentially 18% below approximately 2.2 MMT in 2025/26. West African cocoa quality is under pressure, with cloudy weather and limited sunshine encouraging the spread of black pod disease. El Niño represents a significant medium-term weather risk, with the potential to bring warmer and drier conditions to West Africa. StoneX has reduced its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus forecast to just 25,000 MT, from 149,000 MT previously. Transgraph Consulting expects the global surplus to shrink to 80,000 MT in 2026/27, compared with 415,000 MT in 2025/26. Ghana has proposed increasing cocoa farmer compensation by 6% for the 2026/27 season, which could encourage farmers to delay sales while seeking improved prices. North American cocoa grindings increased 7.7% year on year in Q2, exceeding expectations. Asian cocoa grindings rose 25% year on year, substantially above the expected 9% increase. These factors suggest that although current supply is strong, the balance could become tighter if production problems develop across West Africa during the new season. Bearish Sentiment The market also faces significant downside considerations: Ivory Coast cocoa production has increased sharply, with the country's cocoa regulator reporting 2.06 MMT harvested from June 2025 through June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 MMT previously. Ivory Coast cocoa shipments reached 2.14 MMT during the October 1, 2025–September 13, 2026 period, up 18% year on year. ICE cocoa inventories remain close to a two-year high, standing at 3,429,334 bags on Wednesday. Barry Callebaut has stated that the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving it better positioned to absorb supply disruptions than during the 2023/24 El Niño period. Ghana's current 2025/26 crop has been strong, with 750,000 MT harvested, up 25.6% from the previous season. European cocoa grindings declined 4.6% in Q2, reaching their lowest Q2 level in six years. Higher current production and elevated inventories could continue limiting upside if demand fails to accelerate. The central bearish argument is that the market currently has more physical cocoa available than it did during the extreme supply shortages of 2023/24. Ivory Coast Supply Creates a Major Market Counterweight Ivory Coast remains the most important supply variable for cocoa traders. The country's cocoa regulator reported that 2.06 MMT was harvested between June 2025 and June 2026, representing a 30% increase year on year. Bloomberg data also showed cumulative shipments of 2.14 MMT, up 18% from the corresponding period a year earlier. However, there is an important timing distinction. Ivory Coast has moved its domestic marketing year forward to begin on September 1, whereas the international cocoa marketing year traditionally begins October 1. Reuters reported that deliveries under the new Ivory Coast marketing year amounted to 26,000 tonnes during September 1–13, down 45.8% from the comparable period of the previous season. This means traders need to distinguish between the different marketing-year definitions when interpreting shipment statistics. The large overall harvest and shipment figures remain bearish for current availability, while the lower early-season delivery figure could become more relevant if it signals weaker supply entering the new crop cycle. Ghana Crop Risks Are Increasing Ghana represents another important supply-side concern. The country's Cocoa Board has warned that the 2026/27 crop could fall substantially because of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms and potential adverse weather. One projection places production at 450,000–550,000 MT, while a separate field survey estimated approximately 650,000 MT. Both estimates would represent a decline from the 750,000 MT produced in 2025/26. The contrast between the strong current crop and potentially weaker next crop is important. Ghana harvested 750,000 MT during 2025/26, up 25.6% year on year, meaning the current supply environment is considerably healthier than the forecasts for the upcoming season. Traders are therefore increasingly focused on whether the anticipated decline is temporary or becomes part of a broader structural reduction in West African production. Cocoa Inventories Remain a Bearish Signal ICE cocoa inventories reached 3,436,742 bags on September 4, the highest level in two years. Stocks stood at 3,429,334 bags on Wednesday, remaining close to that recent high. Elevated exchange inventories provide an important counterweight to the bullish crop-risk narrative. Higher stocks indicate that physical cocoa is available to the market, reducing the immediate scarcity premium that helped drive cocoa prices dramatically higher during the previous supply crisis. If inventories continue increasing, it could reinforce the argument that current supply is sufficient. If stocks begin declining rapidly, however, traders could place greater emphasis on the potentially weaker 2026/27 West African crop. Weather Risk Remains a Major Wildcard Weather could ultimately determine which side of the supply debate becomes more important. The US Climate Prediction Center has warned that the current El Niño pattern could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. El Niño can produce warmer and drier conditions across parts of West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture and placing additional stress on cocoa trees. This is particularly relevant because early crop assessments are already reporting poor pod development in Ivory Coast. However, weather risk should be viewed as a potential supply threat rather than a confirmed production loss. The extent of the impact will depend on rainfall patterns, disease development and conditions throughout the growing season. Cocoa Quality Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty Cocoa prices have also received support from concerns about bean quality. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine across Ivory Coast and Ghana have contributed to the spread of black pod disease, which can reduce cocoa bean quality. This creates a different type of supply risk. Even if total production remains relatively high, lower-quality beans can reduce the quantity of cocoa suitable for particular processing and chocolate-production requirements. The market will therefore be watching both crop volume and crop quality as the new season develops. Global Cocoa Demand Sends Mixed Signals Demand indicators remain inconsistent across major processing regions. The European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European grindings fell 4.6% to 316,366 MT, the lowest Q2 level in six years. That decline was larger than the expected 1.5% fall and provides evidence of continued pressure in the European processing market. North America presented a very different picture. The National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American grindings increased 7.7% year on year to 109,659 MT, substantially exceeding expectations for a 1% decline. Asian demand was even stronger, with the Cocoa Association of Asia reporting Q2 grindings up 25% to 224,646 MT, compared with expectations for 9% growth. The regional divergence is therefore significant. Weak European processing demand is bearish, while strong North American and Asian grindings indicate that global cocoa consumption has not weakened uniformly. Global Surplus Forecasts Are Narrowing The global balance is becoming another major focus. StoneX has reduced its 2026/27 surplus forecast to 25,000 MT, down from 149,000 MT in April. Transgraph Consulting expects the surplus to decline to approximately 80,000 MT, compared with 415,000 MT during 2025/26. A smaller surplus means that the market would have less room to absorb a production shortfall. This is particularly important given the concentration of global cocoa production in West Africa. If Ghanaian or Ivory Coast production falls materially while demand remains firm, a relatively small projected surplus could quickly disappear. What Traders Are Watching Next The next phase of the cocoa market is likely to revolve around several competing forces: Ivory Coast production — particularly early pod development and new-season arrivals. Ghana's 2026/27 crop — and whether production falls toward the lower forecasts. ICE cocoa inventories — whether stocks remain near two-year highs or begin declining. West African weather — particularly rainfall, sunshine and El Niño developments. Black pod disease — and its effect on cocoa quality. Global grindings — particularly whether strong Asian and North American demand offsets weaker European processing. Global surplus forecasts — and whether the projected surplus continues shrinking. The British pound — given its influence on London cocoa prices. Ghanaian farmer pricing — and whether higher proposed compensation changes farmer selling behaviour. A continued rise in inventories combined with strong Ivory Coast arrivals would keep the market focused on abundant current supply. Conversely, declining arrivals, weaker Ghanaian production and worsening weather conditions could shift attention toward the emerging 2026/27 supply risks. Currency Hedger View Currency movements are particularly relevant to London cocoa because the contract is priced in sterling. The British pound fell to a 1.5-month low on Wednesday, helping accelerate gains in London cocoa. For international cocoa traders, processors and manufacturers, currency movements can therefore change the effective cost of physical purchases even when the underlying commodity price remains relatively stable. Companies purchasing cocoa in USD or GBP while generating revenues in another currency may face additional exposure when commodity prices and exchange rates move simultaneously. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Cocoa remains caught between strong current supply and increasingly important risks surrounding the next West African crop. The large Ivory Coast harvest, elevated ICE inventories and Barry Callebaut's assessment that the market is well supplied provide substantial bearish arguments. However, the outlook for Ghana and the next Ivory Coast crop is less comfortable, while El Niño, black pod disease and poor pod development could tighten availability if weather conditions deteriorate. Demand is also sending mixed signals, with European grindings weakening while North American and Asian processing activity has strengthened considerably. “Cocoa is increasingly becoming a market of two timeframes: current inventories and Ivory Coast supply remain substantial, while the outlook for the next West African crop is becoming less certain. Traders will need to watch new-crop arrivals and weather conditions closely to determine whether today's ample supply can persist.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Cocoa futures are rising, but the market remains fundamentally divided. Strong Ivory Coast production and near-record exchange inventories are keeping a lid on immediate supply concerns, while weaker European demand adds another bearish factor. At the same time, Ghana's declining crop outlook, weaker early Ivory Coast crop assessments, black pod disease and potential El Niño disruption are creating growing medium-term supply risks. The key signals to watch are West African arrivals, ICE inventories, Ghanaian and Ivory Coast production forecasts, weather conditions, cocoa quality and global grindings. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Sugar Prices Under Pressure as Huge London Deliveries Hit Demand, While Global Supply Deficit Risks Grow

Today Markets Analysis: Sugar futures are showing mixed performance after falling to 1.5-week lows, with the market caught between evidence of weak physical demand and a growing body of longer-term supply concerns. October NY World Sugar #11 recovered to finish slightly higher, while December London white sugar remained under pressure. October NY World Sugar #11 closed at 17.57 cents per pound, up 0.03 points, or 0.17%, while December London white sugar fell 2.30 points to $521.80 per tonne, down 0.44%. The immediate pressure is being driven by unusually large deliveries against the expired October London contract, a stronger US dollar and heavy commodity-fund positioning. However, forecasts for tighter global supplies in 2026/27, lower production expectations in Thailand and Brazil, and weather risks across major producing regions continue to provide an important bullish counterweight. Sugar Futures Show Mixed Performance The two major sugar contracts moved in different directions on Wednesday, reflecting contrasting near-term conditions across the NY raw sugar and London white sugar markets. ContractCloseChangeOct 2026 NY Sugar #1117.57¢/lb+0.03Dec 2026 London White Sugar #5$521.80/tonne-$2.30 The divergence between the contracts comes as the London market absorbs a very large physical delivery against the October contract, while longer-term traders continue to assess forecasts for a potential global deficit. Bullish Sentiment Several fundamental factors continue to provide potential support for sugar prices: The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 200,000 tonnes, reversing from its projected 1.1 million-tonne surplus for 2025/26. Thailand's 2026/27 sugar production is expected to decline sharply, with the Thai Sugar Millers Corp projecting output of around 10 MMT, down 17% year on year. StoneX has forecast a much larger 1.7 MMT global deficit for 2026/27, compared with its earlier 550,000-tonne deficit estimate. Brazilian sugar production has been under pressure, with Unica reporting Center-South June production down 26.3% year on year to 3.903 MMT. India has authorised up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31, an unusual move for a country that is normally a significant sugar exporter. Weather risk remains significant, particularly if El Niño conditions reduce rainfall across Brazil, India and Thailand. Czarnikow has projected a 2.9 MMT global sugar deficit for 2027/28, citing lower cane and beet plantings and potential weather disruption. India’s monsoon rainfall remained 15% below normal as of September 15, according to the India Meteorological Department, despite a substantial improvement from earlier in the season. These factors suggest that the current weakness in sugar prices does not necessarily eliminate the possibility of tighter supply conditions developing further ahead. Bearish Sentiment The near-term market continues to face several significant pressures: The October London sugar contract received 499,350 tonnes of physical deliveries, 91% above the 260,750 tonnes used to settle the October contract last year. The size of the delivery was among the largest recorded for an October contract and is being interpreted as a sign of weak immediate physical demand. The US Dollar Index climbed to a one-month high, encouraging liquidation in dollar-denominated sugar futures. Commodity funds are carrying a substantial long position. The latest COT report showed funds increased their net NY sugar longs by 28,055 contracts to 160,551, the highest level in almost three years. A heavily positioned speculative market can amplify downside pressure if traders begin reducing long exposure. The 2025/26 season is still expected to produce a record global sugar crop, with ISO forecasting production of 182 MMT and a 1.1 MMT surplus. The USDA expects global 2026/27 ending stocks to rise 2.0% to 44.410 MMT, despite lower production. The USDA also expects India's 2026/27 production to increase 12% to 33.6 MMT, assuming favourable rainfall and increased acreage. The combination of heavy speculative positioning and large physical deliveries therefore creates a potentially difficult short-term environment even while longer-term supply forecasts are becoming tighter. Large London Sugar Deliveries Raise Demand Questions One of the most important developments this week has been the scale of physical deliveries against the October London white sugar contract. A total of 499,350 tonnes was delivered when the contract expired on Tuesday. That compares with 260,750 tonnes used to settle the October contract last year, representing an increase of approximately 91%. The size of the delivery is significant because it suggests that a substantial quantity of physical sugar was available for delivery into the exchange mechanism. For traders, the immediate question is whether this represents temporary positioning around contract expiry or a broader indication that physical demand remains weaker than expected. If demand remains subdued, the large delivery could continue to weigh on London prices. Conversely, if buyers absorb the available supply, the market could eventually shift its attention back toward tightening production forecasts. Commodity Funds Hold a Large Long Position Speculative positioning has become another important factor. The latest Commitment of Traders data showed commodity funds increasing their net NY sugar long position by 28,055 contracts during the week ending September 8, taking total net longs to 160,551 contracts. That was the largest net-long position in almost three years. Large long positioning can provide underlying support while prices are rising because it reflects substantial speculative demand. However, it also creates a potential source of selling pressure if market sentiment changes. The recent retreat from the highs therefore creates an important technical and positioning question: whether funds continue holding their positions or begin reducing exposure. If liquidation accelerates, sugar could experience additional short-term volatility even without a major deterioration in underlying crop fundamentals. Global Supply Forecasts Are Becoming More Supportive The longer-term fundamental picture is increasingly focused on the possibility of a global deficit. The ISO expects the 2025/26 season to produce a 1.1 MMT surplus, with global production reaching a record 182 MMT. For 2026/27, however, the organisation expects production to fall approximately 1% to 180.1 MMT, producing a projected 200,000-tonne deficit. Other analysts are forecasting considerably larger deficits. StoneX has projected a 1.7 MMT deficit, while Covrig Analytics expects a deficit of approximately 300,000 tonnes. Czarnikow has also warned of a potentially larger structural deficit in 2027/28, forecasting a 2.9 MMT shortfall as lower cane and beet plantings combine with weather-related production risks. The wide variation between forecasts highlights the uncertainty surrounding the next production cycle. India Becomes a Key Supply Indicator India remains one of the most important markets to watch. India's Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 15% below normal as of September 15. Although this represents a major improvement from the 42% deficit recorded on June 30, the rainfall deficit remains relevant because the monsoon is critical to sugar-cane development. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, meaning changes in production can have a substantial effect on global availability. The decision to permit up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31 is also notable. India has historically been a major exporter, and substantial imports are unusual. The policy therefore provides another indication that domestic supply conditions are being monitored closely. Brazil Production Adds to Supply Risk Brazil remains the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, making production developments there particularly important. Unica reported that Center-South June sugar production fell 26.3% year on year to 3.903 MMT. The Brazilian industry is also facing a changing balance between sugar and ethanol production. Higher crude oil prices can improve the economics of ethanol production, potentially encouraging mills to allocate more cane toward ethanol rather than sugar. That can reduce the amount of sugar entering the global market and provide additional support to prices if sustained. The Brazilian crop will therefore remain one of the most important supply-side indicators for the global sugar market. El Niño Creates Additional Weather Risk Weather remains another major variable. An El Niño pattern has developed across the equatorial Pacific, with the US Climate Prediction Center warning that the event could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. For sugar, the potential consequences are significant because Brazil, India and Thailand account for a substantial proportion of global production and exports. Reduced rainfall or adverse weather during critical growing and harvesting periods could lower yields and tighten global availability. However, the eventual effect will depend on the strength, duration and regional distribution of the weather pattern. This means El Niño represents a potential bullish risk rather than a guaranteed production decline. USDA Forecasts Provide a More Mixed Picture The USDA's 2026/27 projections present a somewhat different balance. The agency expects global sugar production to fall 6.5% year on year to 184.854 MMT, compared with 186.056 MMT in 2025/26. At the same time, global human consumption is forecast to increase 0.4% to a record 179.991 MMT. The USDA nevertheless expects global ending stocks to increase by 2.0% to 44.410 MMT. Regional production forecasts are also mixed: Brazil: 42.5 MMT, down 3.0% year on year. India: 33.6 MMT, up 12%. Thailand: 9.5 MMT, down 15.6%. The differing forecasts demonstrate why sugar traders need to monitor both production and inventories rather than relying solely on headline deficit estimates. What Traders Are Watching Next The next phase of the sugar market is likely to revolve around several competing forces: Physical demand — whether the unusually large London delivery signals persistent weakness. Commodity-fund positioning — whether the substantial NY sugar long position is maintained or liquidated. Brazilian production — particularly Center-South output and the sugar-versus-ethanol allocation. Indian monsoon conditions — and their implications for the 2026/27 crop. Thailand production — given the country's importance as the world's second-largest sugar exporter. Global deficit forecasts — particularly the wide differences between ISO, StoneX, Covrig and other estimates. El Niño developments — and whether weather disruption begins affecting production expectations. US dollar direction — given the impact of currency movements on dollar-denominated commodity prices. Global inventories — particularly whether projected increases in ending stocks materialise. A stabilisation in physical demand combined with deteriorating production expectations could shift attention back toward the global deficit narrative. Conversely, continued weak demand, heavy speculative positioning and a stronger dollar could keep sugar prices under pressure in the near term. Currency Hedger View For sugar producers, refiners, merchants and international buyers, currency movements can have a significant effect on the effective cost of transactions. Sugar is predominantly priced in US dollars, meaning changes in the dollar can influence purchasing costs for buyers whose operating currencies are different. The recent rise in the US Dollar Index to a one-month high has therefore added another layer of pressure to the sugar market. Companies with significant future USD-denominated sugar purchases or sales may need to consider currency exposure alongside the underlying commodity price, particularly while global supply expectations remain volatile. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Sugar is currently being pulled in two directions. The near-term picture is under pressure from weak physical demand, an unusually large London delivery, a stronger US dollar and substantial speculative long positioning. At the same time, the medium- to longer-term supply outlook is becoming more constructive, with the ISO projecting a 2026/27 deficit and several private analysts forecasting substantially larger shortfalls. The market therefore needs to distinguish between current physical availability and potential future tightening. “Sugar is facing a clear divergence between near-term physical-market pressure and increasingly supportive longer-term supply forecasts. The key issue for traders is whether current demand weakness and speculative liquidation can outweigh the emerging production risks in the next crop cycle.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Sugar futures remain caught between short-term bearish pressure and increasingly significant longer-term supply risks. The massive October London delivery, stronger US dollar and large commodity-fund long position create potential for additional volatility and liquidation pressure. However, declining production expectations in Thailand and Brazil, India's unusual decision to permit raw sugar imports, below-normal monsoon rainfall and the potential impact of El Niño provide important bullish considerations. The key signals to watch are physical demand, fund positioning, Brazilian and Thai production, Indian weather conditions, global deficit forecasts and the US dollar. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Cotton Futures Under Pressure as Dollar and Fed Outlook Weigh on Demand

Today Markets Analysis: US cotton futures are coming under renewed pressure as a firmer US dollar, weaker crude oil prices and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook combine to create a challenging near-term environment for the fibre market. October 2026 cotton was the weakest of the actively traded contracts, closing at 80.44 cents per pound, down 66 points. December slipped 12 points to 84.36 cents, while March 2027 declined 10 points to 86.89 cents. The market is now looking ahead to whether weaker prices can attract additional physical demand, while traders assess the implications of higher US interest rates and the possibility of another rate increase later this year. Cotton Futures Remain Under Pressure The weakness is concentrated at the front of the futures curve, with October cotton falling significantly more than the deferred contracts. ContractCloseChangeOct 2026 Cotton80.44¢/lb-66 pointsDec 2026 Cotton84.36¢/lb-12 pointsMar 2027 Cotton86.89¢/lb-10 pointsCotlook A Index96.15¢/lb-150 pointsAdjusted World Price69.51¢/lb-441 points The spread between the nearby and deferred contracts remains important. It suggests that traders are currently pricing greater pressure into the immediate physical market, while maintaining higher values further along the curve. Bullish Sentiment Several factors could provide support for cotton as the market moves into the next phase of the season: Lower futures prices could encourage additional mill and merchant buying if physical demand improves at current levels. ICE certified stocks remain relatively limited, with inventories at 37,930 bales after a further reduction of 532 bales. The weaker front-month contract could eventually attract value-driven demand, particularly if traders begin anticipating tighter nearby availability. The US dollar remains a key variable. Any reversal of the recent dollar strength could improve the competitiveness of US cotton in international markets. If global textile demand improves, the current price structure could provide room for cotton to recover from recent pressure. Bearish Sentiment The immediate backdrop remains challenging: A stronger US dollar makes US cotton relatively more expensive for overseas buyers. The Federal Reserve's latest rate decision leaves the possibility of another rate hike this year, potentially keeping financial conditions restrictive. Crude oil fell $3.69 per barrel, weakening an important broader commodity-market support factor and potentially reducing expectations for stronger synthetic-fibre pricing. The Cotlook A Index fell to 96.15 cents, indicating continued pressure across the international physical market. The Adjusted World Price fell sharply to 69.51 cents per pound, reinforcing the softer global pricing environment. The large decline in the October contract indicates that near-term selling pressure remains stronger than deferred-market pressure. The US Dollar Is Becoming Increasingly Important Currency movements are likely to remain a major driver for cotton traders. The US Dollar Index gained 0.719 points, while the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated that another increase could still be possible during 2026. For cotton, this creates a potentially important headwind. A stronger dollar can raise the effective cost of US cotton for international buyers when translated into their domestic currencies. The market will therefore be watching both US monetary policy and global currency markets alongside traditional cotton fundamentals. If expectations for additional US rate increases strengthen, the dollar could remain supported. Conversely, any shift toward a less restrictive Fed outlook could remove some of the pressure currently facing US export competitiveness. Physical Cotton Prices Show Continued Weakness The physical market is also providing a softer signal. The Seam reported an average sale price of 80.51 cents per pound in Tuesday's sale involving 2,380 bales. That figure is close to the October futures settlement of 80.44 cents, indicating that the nearby futures market is currently trading broadly in line with the physical market. Meanwhile, the Cotlook A Index has fallen to 96.15 cents, while the Adjusted World Price has dropped to 69.51 cents. The divergence between these benchmarks will be important to monitor because it provides a broader indication of how international cotton values are developing relative to US futures. Certified Stocks Remain a Supportive Factor ICE certified cotton stocks declined by another 532 bales on September 15, leaving inventories at just 37,930 bales. While certified stocks alone do not determine the direction of the entire cotton market, relatively low exchange stocks can become increasingly relevant if nearby demand strengthens. This creates a potential counterweight to the current bearish macroeconomic environment. The question heading into the coming weeks is whether physical demand can absorb available supply quickly enough to turn low certified inventories into a stronger price-supporting factor. Crude Oil Adds Another Layer of Pressure Crude oil prices fell $3.69 per barrel, removing some broader commodity-market support. Oil matters to cotton indirectly through the relationship between natural fibre and synthetic alternatives such as polyester. Higher energy prices can increase the cost base for synthetic fibre production, potentially improving cotton's relative competitiveness. The reverse can also apply. If crude remains under pressure, synthetic fibre costs could become less restrictive, potentially limiting cotton's ability to attract substitution-driven demand. For cotton traders, therefore, oil is another market to monitor alongside the dollar and interest rates. What Traders Are Watching Next The next phase of the cotton market is likely to revolve around several competing forces: Federal Reserve policy — whether another rate increase becomes more firmly priced into markets. US dollar direction — particularly its impact on US export competitiveness. Physical cotton demand — whether lower prices begin stimulating additional buying. ICE certified stocks — whether inventories continue to decline. Global cotton benchmarks — particularly the Cotlook A Index and Adjusted World Price. Crude oil prices — and their influence on cotton's competitiveness against synthetic fibres. The October-to-deferred spread — whether nearby weakness begins spreading further along the futures curve. A stabilization in the dollar combined with improving physical demand could create a different setup for cotton. Conversely, persistent dollar strength, restrictive monetary policy and weak global fibre demand would leave the market exposed to further downside pressure. Currency Hedger View For international cotton buyers, merchants and producers, the current currency environment is becoming increasingly important. A stronger US dollar can materially alter the effective cost of cotton for buyers outside the United States, while exporters can face changing competitiveness as exchange rates move. Currency risk should therefore be considered alongside the underlying cotton price rather than in isolation. Companies with significant future USD-denominated purchases or sales may need to monitor their exposure as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook develops. Currency Hedger provides specialist foreign-exchange and currency-risk analysis for businesses managing international payments and currency exposure. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Cotton is entering a period where macro factors could remain just as important as the underlying crop fundamentals. The immediate picture remains pressured by a stronger dollar, weaker crude oil and expectations that US interest rates could remain elevated. However, relatively low certified stocks and the potential for lower futures prices to stimulate physical demand provide counterbalancing factors. The key question for the coming weeks is whether the market can find sufficient demand to absorb the current selling pressure. “Cotton is increasingly being driven by the interaction between physical demand, the US dollar and broader interest-rate expectations. Traders should watch whether lower prices begin to attract demand before assuming that the current weakness will extend indefinitely.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line US cotton futures remain under pressure, with October cotton leading the decline, while the stronger US dollar and potential for another Fed rate increase create a difficult macro backdrop. At the same time, low ICE certified stocks and the possibility of stronger value-driven demand provide potential sources of support. The outlook is therefore balanced between near-term bearish pressure and the possibility of stabilization if physical demand improves. The dollar, global cotton benchmarks, certified stocks and evidence of renewed buying will be the key signals to watch next. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Cattle Futures Slide as Beef Prices Weaken Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

Today Markets Analysis: US cattle futures are heading into the next session under pressure, with live cattle falling $2.10 to $3.77 and feeder cattle posting losses of $1.80 to $6.72 on Wednesday. The weakness comes as cash trade remains largely inactive, wholesale beef prices decline and traders position ahead of Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report. The supply outlook is providing a counterweight to the current weakness. August placements are expected to fall 3.3% year-on-year, while marketings are projected to decline 4%. However, September 1 cattle on feed inventories are still expected to be 1.7% above last year, leaving the market with conflicting signals as it looks toward the final months of 2026. Live and Feeder Cattle Futures Move Lower October 2026 live cattle futures fell $2.25 to $218.45, while December declined $3.15 to $220.20. February 2027 live cattle dropped $3.775 to $220.90, showing that selling pressure is extending across the forward contracts. Feeder cattle were also under pressure. September futures fell $1.80 to $338.475, October dropped $4.20 to $329.65, and November declined $5.80 to $323.10. The scale of the feeder cattle losses indicates that traders are becoming more cautious about cattle values and feeding economics heading into the next reporting period. Bullish Sentiment Lower expected placements: August cattle placements are expected to decline 3.3% year-on-year, potentially limiting future finished-cattle supplies. Lower expected marketings: August marketings are projected to fall 4%, pointing toward slower movement through feedlots. CME Feeder Cattle Index remains elevated: The index increased $1.16 to $342.74 on September 15. Cattle slaughter remains below last year: Wednesday's estimated federally inspected slaughter was 37,998 head below the same week last year, indicating tighter throughput. Forward supply could tighten: Continued reductions in placements could eventually reduce the number of cattle available for slaughter later in the year. Bearish Sentiment Sharp futures losses: Live cattle and feeder cattle both posted significant declines Wednesday. Cash trade has not started: Limited cash-market activity leaves uncertainty around where packer bids and negotiated prices will ultimately establish. No Fed Cattle Exchange activity: The Wednesday online auction saw no bids or sales against 1,514 head offered. Boxed beef prices weakened: Choice beef fell 27 cents to $375.81, while Select dropped $1.79 to $355.57. On-feed inventory remains above last year: September 1 cattle on feed is expected to be 1.7% higher year-on-year. Feeder cattle selling pressure: November feeder cattle declined $5.80, reflecting significant pressure in the forward market. Friday's Cattle on Feed Report Could Set the Next Direction The biggest scheduled catalyst for the cattle market is Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report. Analysts currently expect August placements to be 3.3% below last year, with marketings down approximately 4%. At first glance, lower placements would be supportive for future cattle prices because fewer animals entering feedlots can eventually translate into tighter supplies of finished cattle. However, the September 1 on-feed inventory is expected to remain 1.7% above last year. That means traders will need to assess not just the headline placement number but the entire supply pipeline. If placements come in below expectations and inventories begin tightening in subsequent months, the market could increasingly focus on future supply constraints. If inventories remain comfortably above last year's levels, the market may continue to focus on current beef demand and packer margins instead. Cash Cattle Market Remains in Limbo Cash cattle trading has yet to get underway meaningfully this week. Bids have been reported around $224 per hundredweight live in the South and $345–$348 dressed in the North, but the absence of significant completed trade leaves the market without a firm cash-price signal. The lack of activity was reinforced by Wednesday's Fed Cattle Exchange auction, where 1,514 head were offered with no bids or sales. This creates additional uncertainty for futures traders because cash trade will eventually provide an important benchmark for determining whether the recent futures decline is justified by the physical market. Boxed Beef Prices Add Near-Term Pressure Wholesale beef prices weakened in Wednesday afternoon trading. Choice boxed beef declined 27 cents to $375.81, while Select fell $1.79 to $355.57. The softer boxed-beef market is a bearish near-term signal because it suggests that wholesale demand is not currently providing enough support to offset the pressure in cattle futures. However, the market will need to determine whether this represents a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a more sustained deterioration in beef demand. Cattle Market Snapshot Cattle Market FactorCurrent Market SignalOct 2026 Live Cattle$218.450October daily move-$2.250Dec 2026 Live Cattle$220.200December daily move-$3.150Feb 2027 Live Cattle$220.900February daily move-$3.775Sep 2026 Feeder Cattle$338.475September daily move-$1.800Oct 2026 Feeder Cattle$329.650October daily move-$4.200Nov 2026 Feeder Cattle$323.100November daily move-$5.800CME Feeder Cattle Index$342.74Index daily move+$1.16Choice boxed beef$375.81Choice daily move-$0.27Select boxed beef$355.57Select daily move-$1.79Expected Aug placements-3.3% YoYExpected Aug marketings-4% YoYExpected Sep 1 on-feed inventory+1.7% YoYWednesday slaughter102,000 headWeekly slaughter313,000 headKey market tensionCurrent beef weakness vs potentially tighter future supply Slaughter Remains Below Last Year's Pace USDA estimated Wednesday's federally inspected cattle slaughter at 102,000 head, taking the weekly total to approximately 313,000 head. The weekly figure is higher than the previous week because of the holiday-related comparison, but it remains 37,998 head below the same week last year. That lower slaughter pace is potentially supportive from a longer-term supply perspective because fewer cattle are moving through the processing system. However, reduced slaughter can also reflect operational and calendar effects, meaning traders will need to assess whether the decline persists once normal scheduling resumes. The Market Is Looking Beyond Current Weakness The current decline in futures does not necessarily settle the question of where cattle prices go next. The market is dealing with two competing time horizons. In the near term, weaker boxed beef, limited cash trade and falling futures are creating pressure. Further out, lower expected placements could begin to reduce available finished cattle, potentially tightening supplies if the trend persists. Friday's Cattle on Feed report will therefore be important because it could help traders determine whether the current supply pipeline is becoming tighter or whether the above-year-ago inventory level remains sufficient to keep pressure on prices. What Traders Are Watching Next The focus will remain firmly on Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report. Traders will also monitor: August cattle placements August marketings September 1 on-feed inventory Cash cattle negotiations Fed Cattle Exchange results Choice and Select boxed beef prices Weekly slaughter numbers Feeder cattle index movements Feed costs and feeding margins Consumer beef demand Cattle futures spreads Currency Hedger View Cattle markets are primarily driven by domestic supply and demand, but currency movements can still influence the international competitiveness of US beef and the cost structure of global meat trade. Movements in the US dollar can affect export demand by changing the effective price of US beef for overseas buyers. Currency volatility can therefore become an additional consideration for producers, exporters and international meat businesses managing revenues and costs across different currencies. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Cattle markets are entering the next few sessions with near-term pressure but an increasingly important future supply question. The immediate signals are bearish: futures have fallen sharply, cash trade remains unresolved, the Fed Cattle Exchange recorded no bids or sales and boxed beef prices have weakened. However, the expected decline in August placements could become increasingly significant if it translates into tighter finished-cattle supplies later in the year. Friday's Cattle on Feed report will therefore be critical. A larger-than-expected reduction in placements could shift market attention toward future supply, while a stronger inventory figure could keep the focus on current beef demand and the weaker cash and wholesale markets. “The cattle market is being pulled in two directions. Current cash and boxed-beef signals are creating pressure, but lower expected placements could tighten the supply pipeline ahead. Friday's Cattle on Feed report should provide an important indication of which factor is likely to dominate the market in the weeks ahead.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Live cattle futures declined sharply on Wednesday, with October 2026 futures falling $2.25 to $218.45, while February 2027 contracts dropped $3.775. The bullish case is centred on lower expected placements, slower marketings, cattle slaughter remaining below last year's level and the potential for tighter supplies further ahead. The bearish case is focused on falling futures, weaker boxed beef prices, limited cash-market activity and on-feed inventories expected to remain above last year's level. The next major test is Friday's Cattle on Feed report. The data could determine whether traders increasingly price in tighter future supplies or continue to focus on the current weakness in beef values. For now, the cattle market remains caught between near-term demand pressure and the possibility of tighter supplies developing further ahead. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Soybeans Edge Higher as Traders Await US Export Demand Signals

Today Markets Analysis: US soybean futures are heading into the next session with a modestly firmer tone, after contracts gained 1¾ to 3½ cents on Wednesday. November 2026 soybeans closed at $13.20½ per bushel, while January and March 2027 futures also moved higher. However, weakness across soymeal and soybean oil is tempering the broader bullish signal, leaving the market focused on whether export demand can provide further support. The next major catalyst will be Thursday's USDA Export Sales report, with analysts expecting between 0.9 and 2.4 million tonnes of 2026/27 soybean sales. At the same time, rising Canadian soybean production and mixed product-market performance could limit the upside if demand fails to accelerate. Soybean Futures Move Higher Into the Close November 2026 soybeans gained 1¾ cents to $13.20½, while January 2027 futures added 2 cents to $13.37¼. March 2027 soybeans increased 2¼ cents to $13.45¼, while the national average cash soybean price rose 1¾ cents to $12.62¾. The gains indicate that buyers remain engaged, but the relatively modest size of the move suggests the market is still looking for a stronger fundamental catalyst before establishing a more decisive direction. Bullish Sentiment Firm soybean futures: November, January and March contracts all moved higher. US export demand potential: Analysts expect 0.9–2.4 MMT of 2026/27 soybean sales in Thursday's report. Lower Canadian canola production: Canada's 2026/27 canola crop is estimated at 22.05 MMT, down 0.8% year-on-year. Export data could provide a fresh demand signal: Strong bookings would reinforce evidence that US soybeans remain competitive in global markets. Front-month strength: The continued upward movement across nearby contracts indicates that the market is retaining some underlying support. Bearish Sentiment Soymeal weakness: Soymeal futures declined between 20 cents and $2.10, removing an important source of support from the soybean complex. Soybean oil weakness: Soybean oil fell 50 to 69 points, signalling weaker product-market momentum. Higher Canadian soybean production: Canada's soybean crop is forecast at 7.456 MMT, up 7.8% from last year. Large North American supply potential: Increased Canadian soybean production could add to regional availability. Export expectations remain wide: The 0.9–2.4 MMT forecast range highlights uncertainty surrounding the strength of upcoming US demand. US Export Sales Become the Next Major Test The soybean market is now looking toward Thursday's USDA Export Sales report for confirmation of international demand. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect US soybean sales for the 2026/27 marketing year to fall between 900,000 and 2.4 million tonnes for the latest reporting week. Soymeal bookings are expected to range between 150,000 and 650,000 tonnes, while soybean oil expectations range from net cancellations of 10,000 tonnes to combined sales of 10,000 tonnes. A result toward the upper end of expectations could strengthen the demand narrative and give soybean futures another reason to push higher. A weaker-than-expected report, however, would leave the market more exposed to supply-side concerns and the recent weakness in soybean products. Canadian Production Adds to the Supply Equation Statistics Canada estimates Canada's 2026/27 soybean crop at 7.456 MMT, an increase of 7.8% from last year. That increase represents an additional source of North American soybean supply heading into the new marketing year. By contrast, Canada's canola production is forecast at 22.05 MMT, down 0.8% year-on-year. For soybeans, the larger Canadian crop could become increasingly relevant if US export demand does not strengthen sufficiently to absorb available supplies. The market will therefore be watching not only the size of the US crop and export program, but also how production across North America affects regional supply availability. Soybean Market Snapshot Soybean Market FactorCurrent Market SignalNov 2026 Soybeans$13.20½/bushelNovember daily move+1¾ centsJan 2027 Soybeans$13.37¼/bushelJanuary daily move+2 centsMar 2027 Soybeans$13.45¼/bushelMarch daily move+2¼ centsNearby cash soybeans$12.62¾Cash daily move+1¾ centsSoymeal-20 cents to -$2.10Soybean oil-50 to -69 pointsUS soybean sales expectation0.9–2.4 MMTSoymeal sales expectation150,000–650,000 MTSoybean oil expectation-10,000 to +10,000 MTCanadian 2026/27 soybeans7.456 MMTCanadian soybean production YoY+7.8%Canadian 2026/27 canola22.05 MMTCanadian canola production YoY-0.8%Key market tensionExport demand vs rising North American soybean supply Soybean Products Could Determine the Next Move The performance of soymeal and soybean oil will remain important because soybean futures do not trade in isolation from the products generated through crushing. Wednesday's weakness in both products provides a counterweight to the higher soybean futures. Soymeal futures fell as much as $2.10, while soybean oil declined 50 to 69 points. If product prices remain under pressure, soybean futures could find it harder to extend their recent gains. Conversely, a recovery in meal or oil alongside stronger export demand could provide additional support to the soybean complex. The next few sessions should therefore reveal whether Wednesday's soybean strength represents the beginning of a broader improvement in demand sentiment or simply a modest rebound within a mixed market. Canadian Soybean Growth Adds a Longer-Term Supply Headwind The increase in Canadian soybean production to 7.456 MMT adds another supply consideration for the months ahead. An 7.8% year-on-year increase would provide additional beans to the North American market and could increase competition for storage, processing capacity and export demand. That does not necessarily mean lower prices, however. The impact will depend on how quickly production reaches the market and whether domestic and international demand expands sufficiently to absorb the additional supply. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus will be Thursday's USDA Export Sales report. Traders will also monitor: US soybean export commitments Soymeal and soybean oil demand US harvest progress and yield results Canadian soybean production and harvest conditions Brazilian soybean planting prospects Global soybean export competition Soybean crush margins Chinese and broader Asian import demand US dollar movements and export competitiveness Soybean futures spreads Currency Hedger View Soybeans remain highly exposed to currency movements because Brazil, the United States and other major producers compete for international buyers. Changes in the US dollar and Brazilian real can alter the relative cost of soybean exports even when futures prices remain unchanged. For international agricultural businesses, this means the effective price of soybeans can be influenced by both the underlying commodity market and the currency in which the transaction is ultimately settled. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Soybeans are entering the next phase of trading with modest upward momentum but limited confirmation from the wider soybean complex. The immediate opportunity for further gains lies in stronger US export demand. If Thursday's sales data comes in toward the upper end of expectations, it could reinforce the current price strength and shift attention toward improving demand. The opposing risk is that higher Canadian soybean production, combined with weaker soymeal and soybean oil prices, could limit the ability of soybean futures to extend their gains. The market's next direction will therefore depend heavily on whether export demand can overcome the emerging supply and product-market headwinds. “Soybeans are showing resilience, but the next move will require confirmation from demand. Strong US export bookings could extend the current strength, while weaker sales combined with rising North American production would leave the market vulnerable to renewed supply pressure.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Soybean futures moved higher on Wednesday, with November 2026 soybeans rising 1¾ cents to $13.20½, while January and March contracts also advanced. The bullish case is centred on firmer futures, the potential for strong US export sales and a modest decline in Canadian canola production. The bearish case is focused on weaker soymeal and soybean oil prices, together with Canada's 7.8% increase in soybean production to 7.456 MMT. The next major signal will come from US export demand. Strong bookings could provide the catalyst for further gains, while disappointing demand would leave the market increasingly focused on rising North American supply. For now, soybeans remain caught between potentially stronger export demand and a growing supply cushion, making Thursday's data particularly important for the market's near-term direction. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 17, 2026

Corn Futures Slip as Ethanol Stocks Rise and Canadian Production Expands

Today Markets Analysis: US corn futures finished Wednesday lower across the board, with contracts declining 1½ to 2¼ cents as traders weighed rising ethanol inventories, expectations for Thursday's export data and a larger Canadian corn crop. December 2026 corn closed at $5.34¼ per bushel, down 1½ cents, while March and May 2027 contracts also fell 1½ cents. The fundamental picture remains mixed. US ethanol production continues to run above year-ago levels, supporting domestic corn demand, but rising ethanol stocks and stronger Canadian production are providing counterweights. Meanwhile, Thursday's US Export Sales report could provide the next significant catalyst for prices. Corn Futures Finish Lower Across the Curve December 2026 corn futures closed at $5.34¼, down 1½ cents. March 2027 corn also fell 1½ cents to $5.48¾, while May 2027 declined 1½ cents to $5.55¼. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price slipped 1½ cents to $4.89. The relatively uniform weakness across the futures curve suggests that traders remain cautious rather than aggressively repositioning in either direction. Bullish Sentiment Strong ethanol production: US ethanol production averaged 1.099 million barrels per day, remaining 4.17% above the same week last year. Higher ethanol usage: Refiner inputs increased to 911,000 barrels per day, indicating continued demand from the domestic fuel sector. Higher ethanol exports: Exports rose by 14,000 barrels per day to 161,000 bpd, providing an additional outlet for US ethanol. Export demand potential: Traders are expecting 700,000 to 2 million tonnes of US corn sales for 2026/27 in the week ending September 10. Strong domestic processing: Ethanol production remaining above year-ago levels continues to underpin an important source of US corn demand. Bearish Sentiment Rising ethanol inventories: US ethanol stocks increased by 33,000 barrels to 25.22 million barrels. Stocks remain above last year: Ethanol inventories are now 11.58% above the same week last year, potentially indicating that supply is running ahead of demand. Larger Canadian crop: Statistics Canada estimates Canadian corn production at 16.55 MMT, up 11.3% year-on-year. Corn supply remains substantial: Higher Canadian production adds to North American availability and could increase competition within the regional market. Futures closed lower: All three quoted futures contracts ended Wednesday in negative territory, showing that current demand support was insufficient to lift prices on the session. Ethanol Production Remains a Key Source of Corn Demand The US ethanol market continues to provide an important demand signal for corn. Weekly production was reported at 1.099 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous week and 4.17% higher than the same week last year. Refiner inputs increased by 3,000 barrels per day to 911,000 bpd, while ethanol exports climbed by 14,000 bpd to 161,000 bpd. The production figures therefore remain supportive for corn consumption. However, ethanol inventories increased by 33,000 barrels to 25.22 million barrels, putting stocks 11.58% above year-ago levels. This creates an important tension for the market: production and usage remain strong, but inventories are also building. If ethanol demand continues expanding, the higher production rate could translate into sustained corn consumption. If inventories continue rising faster than demand, however, the supportive effect of the ethanol sector could weaken. US Export Sales Become the Next Major Catalyst The market will receive the latest US Export Sales figures on Thursday morning. Traders are looking for total US corn sales of approximately 700,000 to 2 million tonnes for the 2026/27 marketing year during the week ending September 10. A result toward the upper end of that range could reinforce the demand side of the corn market, particularly if export commitments demonstrate that US supplies remain competitive internationally. Conversely, disappointing sales could increase attention on the expanding supply picture and reinforce the pressure created by rising ethanol stocks and larger Canadian production. Canadian Corn Production Jumps 11.3% Statistics Canada estimates Canadian corn production at 16.55 million tonnes, representing an 11.3% increase from last year. The larger crop adds to North American supply availability at a time when traders are already assessing the size and condition of the US crop. For the corn market, the increase is a bearish supply factor because additional Canadian production can improve regional availability and increase competition among suppliers. The ultimate price impact will nevertheless depend on harvest conditions, domestic consumption and export demand. Corn Market Snapshot Corn Market FactorCurrent Market SignalDec 2026 Corn$5.34¼/bushelDecember daily move-1½ centsMar 2027 Corn$5.48¾/bushelMarch daily move-1½ centsMay 2027 Corn$5.55¼/bushelMay daily move-1½ centsNearby cash corn$4.89Cash daily move-1½ centsEthanol production1.099 million bpdProduction YoY+4.17%Ethanol stocks25.22 million barrelsStocks YoY+11.58%Refiner inputs911,000 bpdEthanol exports161,000 bpdCanadian corn production16.55 MMTCanadian production YoY+11.3%Expected US corn sales0.7–2.0 MMTKey market tensionStrong demand vs expanding supply Strong Ethanol Demand Meets Rising Inventories The ethanol data presents one of the clearest examples of the competing forces currently influencing corn prices. On one side, production is running above last year's level, refiner inputs are increasing and exports have strengthened. All three factors point toward continued demand for ethanol and, indirectly, corn. On the other side, ethanol stocks are also higher, with inventories now more than 11% above last year's level. The market therefore needs to determine whether higher production reflects healthy underlying demand or is beginning to create excess inventory. That distinction could become increasingly important for corn prices if ethanol production remains elevated while inventories continue to accumulate. North American Supply Outlook Adds Pressure The 11.3% increase in Canadian corn production introduces another supply-side headwind. With Canadian output estimated at 16.55 MMT, North American availability could be larger than previously anticipated. For US corn producers, the implications will depend heavily on domestic demand, export competitiveness and the eventual size of the US harvest. A strong export program could absorb some of the additional supply, while weaker exports would leave the market more exposed to harvest-related pressure. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus will be Thursday's US Export Sales report, with traders looking for evidence that international demand can absorb available US corn supplies. Markets will also monitor: US corn export commitments US harvest progress and yield reports Ethanol production and inventory levels Ethanol exports and refiner demand Canadian harvest conditions Global corn production estimates South American planting conditions US dollar movements and export competitiveness Corn futures spreads and cash-market premiums Currency Hedger View Corn is a globally traded commodity, meaning currency movements can influence the competitiveness of major exporters and the effective cost faced by international buyers. Movements in the US dollar, Canadian dollar and currencies across major South American producers can alter export economics even when the underlying corn price remains unchanged. For agricultural businesses with international revenues, purchases or sales, this creates a second layer of price exposure alongside the commodity itself. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Corn is currently balancing solid underlying ethanol demand against evidence of expanding supply and rising ethanol inventories. The fact that ethanol production remains above year-ago levels is supportive, while higher refiner inputs and exports provide additional demand signals. However, ethanol stocks are also significantly higher than last year, and the larger Canadian crop adds another supply-side consideration. Thursday's export data could therefore be important in determining the market's next direction. Strong US sales would provide evidence that demand is capable of absorbing available supplies, while weaker bookings could shift attention back toward the expanding North American supply picture. “Corn remains caught between resilient domestic demand and an increasingly important supply question. Ethanol continues to provide support, but rising inventories and larger Canadian production mean export demand will be critical in determining whether prices can regain upward momentum.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Corn futures finished Wednesday lower, with December 2026 corn falling 1½ cents to $5.34¼ and March and May contracts also declining 1½ cents. The bullish case is centred on ethanol production remaining 4.17% above last year, stronger refiner inputs, increased ethanol exports and the potential for substantial US corn export bookings. The bearish case focuses on ethanol inventories rising 11.58% year-on-year, Canadian corn production increasing 11.3% and the broader question of how much supply the global market will need to absorb. For now, the corn market remains a contest between strong domestic ethanol demand and an expanding North American supply outlook, with Thursday's US Export Sales report providing the next major demand signal. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 17, 2026

Wheat Futures Push Higher as Global Supply Outlook Tightens

Wheat markets finished Wednesday on firmer ground, with all three major U.S. wheat exchanges posting gains as traders weighed tighter production expectations and shifting global export prospects. Chicago SRW futures ended the session 1½ to 6½ cents higher, while KC HRW contracts gained between 1 and 5 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat also strengthened, with contracts rising 2½ to 7½ cents. Currency Hedger, the FX and hedging division of Octalas Group, contributed to the market assessment, with the analysis focusing on the interaction between commodity supply fundamentals, export flows and currency movements. Export demand in focus The next major catalyst comes Thursday morning with the release of U.S. Export Sales data. Reuters-surveyed analysts are expecting weekly wheat bookings for the period ending September 10 to fall between 150,000 and 500,000 metric tonnes. Stronger-than-expected export commitments could reinforce the recent positive momentum, while a weak figure could expose the market to renewed selling pressure. Canadian production forecast falls Canada's wheat outlook provided another supportive factor. Statistics Canada estimates 2026/27 wheat production at 36.12 million metric tonnes, representing a 10.9% decline from the previous year. Spring wheat production is also expected to fall 10.9%, to approximately 26.45 million tonnes. Reduced Canadian output could tighten North American availability, particularly if production losses are accompanied by stronger export demand. French export outlook revised lower France is also seeing changes to its wheat balance sheet. FranceAgriMer has reduced its estimate for French wheat exports outside the European Union to 6.3 million tonnes, down 0.7 million tonnes from its previous forecast. Exports within the EU were also cut by 0.3 million tonnes to 7.1 million tonnes. French ending stocks are now estimated at 3 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.65 million tonnes from the previous estimate. The lower export forecasts are bearish from a demand perspective, but the decline in projected ending stocks provides some offsetting support to the broader supply picture. Ukraine acreage adds another supply concern Ukraine's agriculture ministry estimates that 2027 winter wheat acreage will fall to approximately 4.5 million hectares, down 200,000 hectares from the previous year. The reduction in planted area could become increasingly significant for future global supply if adverse weather or other production constraints compound the decline in acreage. Black Sea exports remain a key factor SovEcon estimates combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine at 8 million tonnes between July and September, well below the 16.4 million tonnes recorded during the same period last year. The sharp decline in exports could ultimately tighten global availability, although traders will continue to monitor whether weaker shipments reflect reduced supply, logistical constraints or changes in export demand. Bullish Sentiment Gains across Chicago, KC and Minneapolis wheat futures. Canadian 2026/27 wheat production forecast down 10.9%. Lower French ending-stock expectations. Ukraine planning a smaller winter wheat area. Significantly lower combined Russian and Ukrainian exports. Bearish Sentiment French export forecasts have been reduced. Global wheat markets remain exposed to substantial international supply. U.S. export demand remains uncertain ahead of Thursday's data. A disappointing Export Sales report could trigger renewed selling pressure. Currency Hedger Analysis Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, notes that wheat's near-term direction will depend on whether tightening supply expectations are confirmed by stronger physical and export demand. Currency movements also remain relevant to international competitiveness. Changes in major agricultural exporters' currencies can influence export pricing and alter the relative attractiveness of wheat from different origins. For now, the combination of lower Canadian production, reduced Ukrainian planting intentions and weaker Black Sea shipments provides a constructive fundamental backdrop. However, the market still needs confirmation from U.S. export demand before the recent gains develop into a broader trend. Today Markets View Wheat enters the next session with bullish and bearish forces competing for control. Supply-side developments are providing support, while uncertainty over export demand remains the principal counterweight. Thursday's U.S. Export Sales figures therefore become an important near-term test for the market. Strong bookings would provide additional support to the current positive tone, while weaker-than-expected demand could bring renewed pressure to futures. Today Markets will continue to monitor wheat futures, global export flows, currency movements and changing supply estimates as the market develops.

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Markets

September 16, 2026

Chart of the Day: What’s next for the US stock market?

The US technology sector has run out of steam following months of buoyant growth. Although the Nasdaq 100 index still boasts a solid year-to-date return of 14.6%, recent weeks have brought a marked cooling in sentiment. Over the past month, the index has slipped by 3.7%, and it now stands 5.6% below its record highs. Investors are holding their breath as market tension mounts ahead of today's Federal Reserve decision. Figure 1: Dashboard for Nasdaq 100 (15.09.2026) Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026 Return of the Hawks? There are strong indications that the ongoing correction on Wall Street is not merely a technical pause, but rather the result of aggressive interest rate repricing. Money markets are currently pricing in a more than 90% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at today's meeting. Furthermore, market participants are convinced that another such move will follow before December. This would mark the first rate hike since 2023. Figure 2: Change in Market-Implied Probability of September Fed Rate Hike (2025 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026 Behind this hawkish turn lie renewed inflation concerns, fuelled by rising energy commodity prices. Brent crude has approached USD 107-108 per barrel in recent days, while WTI has crossed the USD 104 mark. Figure 3: Brent and WTI Crude Oil (2026) Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026 The impact of this anxiety is clearly visible in the debt market, where 10-year US Treasury yields have surged above 5%, testing levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Figure 4: US 10-Year Government Bond Yields (08.2026 - 09.2026) Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026 Moment of Truth for the New Fed Chair The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, faces a crucial credibility test. The White House is exerting immense pressure on the central bank. Kevin Hassett, the President's chief economic advisor, explicitly stated that whilst Donald Trump "100 percent respects" the Fed Chair's independence, he certainly "would not be very happy" about a potential rate increase. For the markets, the situation is particularly intriguing given that Warsh openly aligned himself with Trump prior to taking office, criticizing former Chair Jerome Powell for cutting rates too slowly. A pause in the current tense economic environment could be interpreted as a political surrender and a definitive loss of central bank independence. Of two evils, a rate increase appears to pose significantly less reputational risk for both the institution and Warsh himself. However, the US dollar might not necessarily benefit from a potential rate hike. The move is already almost fully priced in, meaning attention will focus heavily on Warsh's commentary. The Fed Chair may struggle to live up to demanding market expectations, particularly in light of his preference for keeping communication to a minimum. Figure 5: Major Currencies vs US Dollar (09.2026) Source: XTB Research, 16.09.2026 AI Debate and Sector Valuations Valuations of tech giants are being weighed down by more than just tightening monetary policy expectations. Within the artificial intelligence sector, which served as the primary growth engine for the Nasdaq 100, a fierce debate over safety has erupted. It began with the dramatic resignation of Jacob Coxon from Anthropic, who warned that AI "could kill us all by the end of the decade". This triggered a flurry of extreme reactions from political and tech leaders: President Donald Trump described AI safety concerns as a "hoax" and a "sick conspiracy", adding that only China would benefit from slowing down progress. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang echoed this view, contending that the market will self-regulate and that new regulations are unnecessary. Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) called for independent oversight, with his plea to monitor the pace of development backed by Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Elon Musk, among others. Mark Zuckerberg noted that Meta voluntarily delayed the deployment of its Muse model by several months to focus on safety, but voiced opposition to an industry-wide artificial slowdown. Despite these apocalyptic discussions, capital continues to flood into the sector. OpenAI is currently holding early discussions regarding a new funding round that would value the company at an astronomical USD 1.2 trillion ahead of its public market debut. Technical Analysis Figure 6: US100 [D1] (04.03.2026 - 16.09.2026) Source: XTB, 16.09.2026 The price has broken down and currently trades below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA 50, indicated by the yellow line on the chart). This moving average has now been pushed into a role of key resistance. Quotations are currently trapped between the 50-day EMA and the 100-day moving average (EMA 100, represented by the red line). Applying a Fibonacci retracement to the powerful upward rally from March to early June shows that the price is fighting desperately to hold around the first major support level, the 23.6% retracement. A sustained break below this threshold (along with a breach of the EMA 100) could trigger a technical selling impulse, opening the door to a deeper correction.

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September 16, 2026

Trade of The Day – Copper Price Correction Creates New Buying Opportunity as Bullish Trend Remains Intact

Copper is attempting to stabilise after its latest correction, with the broader technical structure continuing to point toward an underlying bullish trend. The metal has recently experienced increased volatility after reaching record levels, with the latest pullback taking prices toward an important technical support area. On September 16, copper was recovering around the $14,000-per-tonne region after briefly falling to approximately $13,926 per tonne, its lowest level since August 20. The current setup leaves copper at an important technical decision point: buyers are attempting to defend support while the longer-term trend remains constructive. Recommendation Long position (BUY) on COPPER at market price Target price (Take Profit; TP): 15,200 Stop Loss (SL): 13,650 The setup reflects the potential for copper to resume its broader upward movement following the recent correction, while the stop-loss level provides a defined point at which the bullish scenario would be considered invalidated. Copper Technical Setup Copper remains positioned within a broader upward structure, despite the recent decline from its highs. The 60-, 100- and 200-period exponential moving averages remain aligned with the shorter-term average above the longer-term averages. This configuration continues to indicate positive underlying momentum. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has moved back toward neutral territory, reducing the overbought conditions that accompanied the earlier rally. Copper is also trading toward the lower side of its longer-term regression structure. This area is significant because previous corrections have tended to attract buying interest rather than develop immediately into sustained trend reversals. The technical picture therefore presents a combination of long-term bullish structure and short-term corrective pressure. Bullish Sentiment The bullish case is supported by several factors. First, the underlying EMA structure remains positive. The 60-period EMA continues to sit above the 100-period and 200-period averages, indicating that the broader trend has not yet been technically broken. Second, the recent correction has brought momentum back toward neutral levels. An RSI around 49 suggests that copper is no longer displaying the heavily extended momentum conditions seen during its strongest advances. Third, copper is approaching an area where Fibonacci and regression-based support become increasingly relevant. Previous corrections have shown buyers stepping back into the market as prices approach these deeper retracement zones. The fundamental backdrop also remains supportive. Copper demand continues to be linked to electrification, power infrastructure and industrial investment, while supply constraints remain an important longer-term consideration. The International Energy Agency has highlighted the combination of supply disruptions, rising demand and constrained mining capacity as important factors behind copper's elevated price environment. Bearish Sentiment The bearish argument is centred on the scale of the recent rally and the possibility that the current correction has further to run. Copper recently traded above $14,800 per tonne before reversing sharply, demonstrating how quickly profit-taking can develop after an extended advance. Rising LME inventories also represent a near-term risk to the bullish case. Higher warehouse stocks can indicate that immediate supply pressure is easing, potentially reducing one of the catalysts that helped drive copper toward its recent highs. Macro conditions are another consideration. Copper remains highly sensitive to global manufacturing expectations, interest rates, the U.S. dollar and broader risk appetite. A decisive break below the major support structure would therefore weaken the bullish setup and increase the probability of a deeper correction. Key Copper Levels LevelSignificance15,200Take-profit target14,800+Recent record-high / major resistance regionAround 14,000Current psychological and market support area13,650Stop-loss / key downside invalidation level The 15,200 target represents the next major upside objective if copper successfully completes the current correction and resumes its broader advance. The 13,650 level is equally important from a risk-management perspective. A sustained move through this area would materially weaken the current bullish setup. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus is whether copper can build a base around its current support region. A recovery toward the recent highs would indicate that buyers are regaining control and could place 15,200 back into focus. Conversely, continued weakness through the current support zone would increase the risk of a deeper Fibonacci retracement. The market is also likely to remain sensitive to developments in China, the world's largest copper consumer, as well as U.S. monetary policy and movements in the dollar. Recent Chinese economic data has provided some support for copper, while rising inventories have provided a counterweight. This combination is creating a market where both demand expectations and supply data can produce significant short-term price movements. Copper Market Outlook Copper's longer-term structure remains constructive, but the metal is now moving through a much more important technical phase. The recent correction has removed some of the excess momentum from the earlier rally without, so far, completely breaking the broader trend structure. That creates the potential for buyers to re-enter around established technical support, while the bearish scenario remains centred on a deeper breakdown below the current support region. For traders following the setup, the relationship between the 13,650 stop-loss level and the 15,200 upside target provides a clear framework for monitoring whether the bullish thesis is developing or failing. Today Markets View Copper remains in a technically constructive but volatile environment. The longer-term EMA structure continues to support the bullish case, while the recent decline and rising inventories demonstrate that the market is not moving higher without resistance. The key question is whether the current correction can stabilise above the major downside level. A successful recovery would bring the recent highs and the 15,200 target back into focus. A sustained break toward 13,650, however, would significantly change the technical picture and indicate that the correction has developed into a deeper reversal. Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets: “Copper's broader trend remains constructive, but the latest correction has brought the market into an important technical decision zone. The key now is whether buyers can defend support and rebuild momentum toward the previous highs and the 15,200 target.” Bottom Line Recommendation: Long position (BUY) on COPPER at market price Take Profit: 15,200 Stop Loss: 13,650 Copper remains supported by a constructive longer-term trend structure and important underlying demand themes, but traders should remain alert to the risks created by elevated inventories, macroeconomic conditions and the possibility of further short-term correction. The 15,200 target provides the upside objective, while 13,650 represents the key risk-management level for the bullish setup. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Today Markets Recommendation Disclaimer The information contained in this market analysis is provided by Today Markets for informational and educational purposes only. Any trading recommendation, including the stated entry level, Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL), represents the market view of Today Markets at the time of publication and should not be considered personalised investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Trading commodities and other leveraged financial instruments involves a high level of risk and may result in losses exceeding the initial amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market prices can move rapidly and may be affected by economic data, monetary policy, geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions and other factors. The Long (BUY) recommendation on COPPER, with a Take Profit of 15,200 and Stop Loss of 13,650, is based on the technical and market conditions available at the time of preparation. These levels may become outdated as market conditions change. Investors should independently assess whether any transaction is appropriate for their individual circumstances, financial objectives, experience and risk tolerance and, where appropriate, seek independent professional advice. Today Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or continued relevance of the information presented and accepts no responsibility for losses arising from reliance upon this analysis. Today Markets — Market Analysis & Trading Intelligence

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Banks

September 16, 2026

Swiss Franc: Watching break of 0.8205 against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CHF consolidating just below major resistance at 0.8205 after trading between 0.8164 and 0.8198. They flag potential for a brief move above 0.8205, though a sustained break is uncertain, and maintain that a firm hold above this level is needed to target 0.8245, with strong support near 0.8145. Dollar capped near key resistance "24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected USD to “consolidate between 0.8150 and 0.8195.” USD subsequently traded within a range of 0.8164/0.8198. While the price action did not result in any clear increase in upward momentum, USD could rise above the major resistance at 0.8205. However, based on the current momentum, it may not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. The next resistance at 0.8245 is also unlikely to come into view. Support is at 0.8175, followed by 0.8160." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Yesterday (15 Sep, spot at 0.8175), we highlighted that USD “must break and hold above 0.8205 before a move to 0.8245 can be expected.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, should USD break below 0.8145 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.8130 yesterday), it would mean that the upside pressure from late last week has run its course."

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Banks

September 16, 2026

Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank weighs inflation and growth – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke highlights uncertainty over whether Norges Bank will hike in September or wait until December. Inflation remains above target despite a recent downside surprise, while growth is described as close to normal. The regional network survey is seen as decisive, with Oil prices and Middle East developments still the main drivers for NOK. Norges Bank decision and NOK drivers "Up in the far north, in Norway, things are also likely to be interesting whether Norges Bank will raise its policy rate as early as September or choose to wait and see." "Furthermore, inflation remains well above the 2% target (the headline rate in July was 3% yoy, the core rate 2.7%), and the rapid rise in business costs in recent years will help keep inflation at elevated levels going forward." "The big question, therefore, will be whether Norges Bank will look past this effect and revise its (new) inflation forecasts downward in September or not." "If the report shows that businesses are anticipating solid demand, rising wages, and high capacity utilization, the rate hike could take place as early as next week." "If companies sound less positive about the outlook for the next six months, Norges Bank is likely stand pat and wait for the December meeting; after all, it will have more information available by then."

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Banks

September 16, 2026

Oil: Supply risks and central bank pressures – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights escalating Middle East tensions, with Houthi attacks and damage to Saudi infrastructure forcing more Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. He notes increased supply risks via Bab el-Mandeb and potential mines, and says it has updated its energy forecasts as higher crude and refined product prices draw renewed political scrutiny. Escalating risks reshape energy outlook "The situation in the Middle East remains on an escalatory path, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia now a regular event. Attacks have already damaged the east-west pipeline, which allowed Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz." "The damage to the pipeline increases Iran’s leverage. It forces Saudi Arabia to pivot back to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz." "Further supply risks follow from the Houthis taking key areas around the Bab el-Mandeb strait and rumours they have laid mines in the waterway, which puts new constraints on tanker movements. Following the unfolding escalation in the Middle East, we have updated our energy forecasts." "The energy market had already shifted higher on the news of re-escalation, and prices of crude and refined products are drawing new attention from motorists and lawmakers. Yesterday, US Senate Majority Leader Thune said he is “open to exploring” a diesel export ban if that helps ease domestic price pressures." "Or could these new supply chain disruptions be the catalyst for more countries to send military assets to the region?"

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Banks

September 16, 2026

US Dollar: Warsh guidance keeps Greenback supported – ING

ING strategists Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky note that markets fully expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25bp to 4.0%, with a surprise hold seen as materially negative for the Dollar. They argue the FOMC is likely aware of Treasury risks and will keep a hawkish tone, with Chair Kevin Warsh’s openness to further tightening supporting the Dollar and discouraging large USD shorts. Fed hike and guidance in focus "Markets are fully expecting a 25bp hike to 4.0% today, and a surprise hold or strong dovish dissent could have a materially negative impact on the dollar. But that’s a small risk, as the FOMC is likely mindful of any adverse Treasury-market implications. Openness to further hikes by Warsh can leave the dollar broadly supported." "We expect the Fed to raise rates by a consensus 25bp to 4.0% today. Markets are pricing in 23bp for today, 52bp by year-end, and 89bp by June. A surprise hold would likely deliver a big blow to the dollar: both through the dovish repricing in front-end rates and a likely selloff in the back end." "That, in our view, also argues for a hawkish message. A dovish hike may not be enough to convey the monetary policy discipline bond investors currently demand, particularly given the amount of tightening already priced into swaps. Recent bond market headlines may even have helped bring some FOMC members behind a hike, reducing the likelihood of visible dissent, at least for now." "If anything, the new economic projections pose some risk of dovish disappointment. Inflation may be revised slightly lower, while our economists expect the median dot plot at 4.0% in both 2026 and 2027, well below market pricing. Even so, we think Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will be the key driver of the market reaction." "Incidentally, the external picture argues against building sizeable USD shorts at this stage. Brent is aiming for $110/bbl, as Iran-Gulf negotiations are delayed again, and softness in tech stocks is weighing on overall sentiment. These conditions suggest markets are more likely to fade a negative dollar reaction to the Fed today, unless triggered by a significant dovish surprise, rather than a positive one."

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Banks

September 16, 2026

Equities: Consumer sectors under pressure from energy shock – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team observes that global equities closed lower on Tuesday, with Energy the only sector in positive territory as Oil prices surged. The bank notes that selling was concentrated in consumer discretionary and staples, reflecting concerns that higher energy costs will hurt consumers. Despite equities being up over 10% year to date, consumer discretionary is now the worst-performing sector, down more than 5%. Consumer complex bears brunt of selloff "Equities closed lower across regions yesterday as oil gained another 4%. Oil has now risen in ten of the past eleven sessions, advancing almost 30% over that period. Unsurprisingly, Energy was the only sector in positive territory." "The more revealing signal came from the rest of the market. Excluding Energy, this was not a conventional defensive rotation. Instead, the selling was concentrated in the consumer complex, with consumer discretionary leading the decline but consumer staples also under pressure. Investors increasingly view consumers as the main casualty of higher energy prices and are reducing exposure accordingly." "Despite the broader equity market still being up more than 10% year to date, consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector and is down more than 5%. Importantly, neither consumer discretionary nor consumer staples has experienced the largest earnings downgrades." "The underperformance therefore reflects investors demanding a higher risk premium in the consumer sectors rather than merely responding to weaker earnings estimates." "Oil is easing from its highs this morning, supporting Asian equities, while European and US futures are marginally higher."

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Banks

September 16, 2026

British Pound: Rising price pressures challenge BoE – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja notes that United Kingdom (UK) inflation rose in August, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.1% year-on-year, its highest since December last year. While Core CPI and food inflation remained subdued, energy and services prices showed worrying strength. Raja highlights that inflation is running above Bank of England (BoE) projections and expects CPI to approach 4% around year-end, complicating policy decisions. Inflation ascent raises policy questions "UK inflation did what most forecasters thought it would in August: it went up. Headline CPI rose to 3.1% y/y – marking its highest print since December last year." "First, to state the obvious, inflation is on the rise. Energy prices made the biggest positive contribution to headline CPI in August, as pump prices rose by 7% m/m and heating oil prices also rose by 13% m/m. With Brent prices still picking up, more pain for households is likely with further rises in pump prices expected." "Second, there were some worrying trends in services price momentum. Private rents saw their biggest monthly jump since November 2024 (0.49% m/m). Catering prices also jumped by its highest rate since February this year at 0.45% m/m. Health services were up 0.4% m/m. While headline metrics tell one story, there is another: cost of living pressures is intensifying." "Third, relative to the Bank of England’s projections, inflation momentum is running hotter than expected. Indeed, headline CPI is now 0.25pp above the Bank’s forecast. Services CPI sits 20bps above the Bank’s projection. The one point of comfort for the Bank will be on food inflation which continues to buck the trend. Food inflation (including non-alcoholic beverages) sat still at 1.3% y/y – nearly 0.7pp below the Bank’s forecast." "Bottom line, inflation is on the ascent with an unknown destination. Events in the Middle East continue to add to inflationary pressures. On our estimates, the upcoming Ofgem Price Cap is due to rise by over 20% in January. Food prices, whilst weak today, remain poised to rise on the back of the recent heatwaves, droughts, and a potential El Niño event. For the Bank of England, its job to keep inflation at 2% has become harder. Our own projections point to CPI on course to get close to 4% around the turn of the year. Rates may be restrictive, but the key policy question for the MPC will remain: are they restrictive enough? Risk management considerations have become stronger, and the likelihood of rate hikes have strengthened of late."

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Banks

September 16, 2026

Indian Rupee: Inflation and trade reshape INR – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economists note India’s August CPI rose to 4.8% year-on-year, above the RBI midpoint but still below the central bank’s full-year forecast. They see a more finely balanced policy outlook, with a likely hawkish hold at 5.25%. A narrower trade deficit and strong capital inflows should support INR, even as higher Oil prices pressure inflation and the currency. Higher CPI but supportive external mix "August CPI inflation rose to 4.8% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 4.9%) vs 4.5% in July. This was the highest reading since December 2024 and the third consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% midpoint target." "Inflation averaged around 3.8% year-to-date, remaining below the RBI's FY2026-2027 forecast of 5.0% and in the lower half of its 2-6% target range. Nevertheless, if oil prices remain high for an extended period, the risk is to the upside." "Nevertheless, the policy outlook has consequently become more finely balanced. RBI is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at its next meeting on 7 October, but it could be a hawkish hold. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said last Friday that underlying price pressures remain low, suggesting limited urgency to tighten monetary policy for now." "On trade, the August trade deficit narrowed more than expected to USD26.9bn (Bloomberg consensus: USD32.2bn) vs USD32.0 in July." "The narrower trade deficit should support India's external position after the current account swung to a USD4.2bn deficit in Q2 from a USD6.5bn surplus in Q1. At the same time, measures aimed at attracting foreign capital have strengthened the financial account." "In FX, USD/INR rose 0.4% to 95.96 yesterday, just below the psychologically important 96.00 level. INR had weakened due to higher crude oil prices and the firmer USD."

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UOB

September 16, 2026

Euro: Downside pressure toward 1.1490 against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a cautious stance on EUR/USD after the pair closed almost unchanged near 1.1543. They note slowing downside momentum intraday but still see room for a move toward 1.1520, while the broader 1–3 week view points to potential losses toward 1.1490 unless resistance at 1.1585 is breached, suggesting sustained downside pressure. Momentum still favors mild downside "24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR fell more than we expected on Monday, we highlighted yesterday that “there is a chance for EUR to drop to 1.1520 before a more sustained rebound can be expected.” We added, “the next support at 1.1490 is unlikely to come under threat.” While EUR fell as expected, it recovered from 1.1525 to close largely unchanged at 1.1543 (-0.03%). Downward momentum is starting to slow, but there is still a chance for EUR to decline toward 1.1520. A breach of this level is not ruled out, but based on the prevailing momentum, the major support at 1.1490 is still unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 1.1550, followed by 1.1565." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (15 Sep, spot at 1.1550) remains valid. As highlighted, “the sharp increase in momentum suggests EUR could decline toward 1.1490.” On the upside, a breach of the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1585 (level was at 1.1600 yesterday) would indicate that the downward pressure from late last week is easing."

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Markets

September 16, 2026

Live Cattle Futures Fall as Feeder Cattle Slide Despite Strong Boxed Beef Prices

Today Markets Analysis: US live cattle futures moved lower across the board on Tuesday, while feeder cattle suffered a sharper decline as traders balanced weaker futures against firm cash cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values. October 2026 live cattle settled at $220.70 per cwt, down $1.55, while December fell $1.80 to $223.35. Feeder cattle futures dropped as much as $4.00, despite the CME Feeder Cattle Index remaining near $342 and strong gains at the weekly Oklahoma City feeder auction. The market is now facing a key divergence between falling futures prices and firm underlying cash and boxed-beef fundamentals. Live Cattle Futures Retreat as Feeder Cattle Lead the Decline Live cattle futures fell $1.42 to $1.90 across Tuesday's contracts, while feeder cattle futures posted losses of $2.80 to $4.00. October live cattle closed at $220.70, with December at $223.35 and February 2027 at $224.675. The feeder market was weaker still, with September 2026 feeder cattle falling $3.30 to $340.275 and October dropping $4.00 to $333.85. The declines came despite evidence that cash cattle and physical feeder markets remain relatively firm. Bullish Sentiment Cash cattle remain elevated: Last week's cash trade reached $222–$225, $1–$6 above the previous week. Boxed beef prices strengthened: Choice beef increased 77 cents to $376.08, while Select gained $1.81 to $356.36. Strong feeder auction prices: Oklahoma City sales showed steers gaining $15–$25 and heifers $10–$20. Limited cattle slaughter: Weekly federally inspected slaughter is 21,182 head below the same week last year, indicating tighter available supplies. Firm CME Feeder Cattle Index: The index remains at $341.58, keeping physical feeder values historically elevated. Bearish Sentiment Live cattle futures declined: All three listed live cattle contracts finished lower Tuesday. Feeder cattle selling intensified: Futures dropped as much as $4.00. Cash trade has not yet started this week: The absence of fresh cash transactions leaves uncertainty over whether last week's higher prices can be maintained. Slaughter volumes increased sharply week-on-week: Tuesday's 108,000-head kill pushed the weekly total to 211,000, although the comparison is distorted by the holiday. Futures are disconnecting from wholesale strength: The decline in futures despite higher boxed beef prices suggests traders are becoming more cautious about forward cattle values. Cash Cattle Remains the Critical Price Signal Cash cattle trading has yet to get underway this week, leaving last week's $222–$225 range as the most recent benchmark. Those prices were $1–$6 higher than the previous week, demonstrating continued strength in the physical market. The next round of cash transactions will therefore be closely watched. If packers are willing to pay similar or higher prices, futures could regain some of Tuesday's losses. Conversely, weaker cash bids could reinforce the selling pressure already visible in futures. Boxed Beef Prices Provide Fundamental Support Wholesale beef values moved higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxed beef increased 77 cents to $376.08, while Select gained $1.81 to $356.36. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $19.72. Stronger wholesale values provide a constructive signal for packer margins and underlying beef demand. However, futures traders appear to be looking beyond the immediate boxed-beef market and assessing whether current strength can persist into the coming weeks. Feeder Cattle Market Shows Strong Physical Demand The physical feeder market remains notably firm despite the futures decline. The CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped only 13 cents to $341.58 on September 14, while the Oklahoma City auction recorded strong gains. Sales of 5,198 head saw steers increase $15–$25 and heifers rise $10–$20. This creates an important divergence: cash and auction feeder prices remain strong while futures have moved sharply lower. That gap will be an important indicator of whether Tuesday's futures decline represents a temporary correction or a broader change in market expectations. Cattle Market FactorCurrent Market SignalOct 2026 Live Cattle$220.70October daily move-$1.55Dec 2026 Live Cattle$223.35December daily move-$1.80Feb 2027 Live Cattle$224.675February daily move-$1.625Sep 2026 Feeder Cattle$340.275September daily move-$3.30Oct 2026 Feeder Cattle$333.85October daily move-$4.00Nov 2026 Feeder Cattle$328.90November daily move-$3.875CME Feeder Cattle Index$341.58Last week's cash cattle$222–$225Choice boxed beef$376.08Select boxed beef$356.36Choice daily move+$0.77Select daily move+$1.81Tuesday cattle slaughter108,000 headWeekly slaughter211,000 headSlaughter vs year ago-21,182 headOKC auction volume5,198 headKey market tensionFirm physical prices vs weaker futures Cattle Slaughter Remains Below Last Year's Pace USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at 108,000 head on Tuesday, bringing the weekly total to 211,000 head. The weekly figure is substantially above the previous week because of the holiday-adjusted comparison, but it remains 21,182 head below the same week last year. The lower year-on-year slaughter pace is potentially supportive for cattle prices because it indicates fewer animals moving through the processing system. However, traders will need to monitor whether slaughter numbers increase as the week progresses. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus is on cash cattle trade and whether this week's transactions maintain the $222–$225 range established last week. Traders will also monitor: Choice and Select boxed beef prices The Choice-Select spread Weekly cattle slaughter CME Feeder Cattle Index movements Oklahoma City and other feeder auctions Feedlot marketings Packer demand and margins The spread between cash cattle and futures The key question is whether firm physical markets eventually pull futures higher or whether futures weakness begins to feed back into cash negotiations. Currency Hedger View For international meat producers, processors and traders, cattle prices are only one part of the commercial equation. US dollar movements can influence the competitiveness of American beef in overseas markets, while importers face additional currency exposure when purchasing US-denominated products. Managing FX exposure alongside commodity-price risk can therefore help businesses protect margins when cattle and currency markets move in opposite directions. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View The cattle market is showing a clear divergence between strong physical fundamentals and weaker futures sentiment. Cash cattle finished last week at elevated levels, boxed beef prices strengthened Tuesday and feeder cattle remained firm at Oklahoma City. Yet futures declined sharply, particularly in the feeder market. The next cash trade will therefore be critical. A continuation of firm cash prices could challenge the recent futures weakness, while softer bids would provide confirmation that traders are beginning to price a less supportive forward market. “The cattle market is sending two different signals. Physical markets remain firm, with higher boxed beef and strong feeder auction prices, while futures are pulling back sharply. The next cash trade should provide an important test of whether this divergence can continue.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Live cattle futures fell Tuesday, with October 2026 cattle declining $1.55 to $220.70, while feeder cattle dropped as much as $4.00. The bullish case is supported by last week's $222–$225 cash trade, higher boxed beef prices, strong feeder auction values and slaughter running below last year's level. The bearish case centres on the sharp futures decline, uncertainty ahead of this week's cash trade and increased weekly slaughter volumes. For now, the cattle market remains defined by the gap between firm physical fundamentals and weakening futures prices. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 16, 2026

Soybean Futures Rise as US Harvest Rain and Soymeal Strength Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis: US soybean futures moved higher across the front months on Tuesday, supported by a sharp rally in soymeal, while wet weather across parts of the US Midwest raised concerns about near-term harvest progress. November 2026 soybeans closed at $13.18¾ per bushel, up 14½ cents, while January and March contracts each gained 15 cents. The rally is being supported by weather and product-market strength, but the fundamental picture remains mixed. Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop is forecast at a record-sized 181.64 MMT by CONAB, while the USDA projection is even higher at 186 MMT, creating a significant supply headwind for the longer-term outlook. Soybean Futures Rally Across the Front Months November soybeans gained 14½ cents, with January and March 2027 futures both rising 15 cents. Soymeal provided an important source of support, gaining between $6.30 and $9.90, while soybean oil showed a more mixed performance, with nearby contracts higher and deferred contracts lower. The combination suggests that strength in the soybean complex is being driven more heavily by meal demand and concerns over physical soybean availability during the US harvest period. Bullish Sentiment Wet US weather: More than 1–3 inches of rain is expected across parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, northern Missouri and the Eastern Corn Belt, potentially slowing harvest. Soymeal strength: Soymeal futures rallied sharply, providing direct support to soybean processing margins and the broader complex. Lower soybean oil stocks: NOPA soybean oil inventories fell 3.5% year-on-year to 1.201 billion pounds. US crush remains above last year: August soybean crush was still 8.24% above the previous year, indicating strong processing activity. Brazil crop revision: Although small, CONAB's reduction of the 2025/26 estimate adds a marginally supportive element to the current supply balance. Bearish Sentiment Large Brazilian crop: CONAB estimates Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 181.64 MMT, while the USDA is forecasting 186 MMT. US crush below expectations: August NOPA crush of 205.46 million bushels was well below the 211.55 million-bushel estimate. Global supply potential: Strong Brazilian production could increase export competition and limit upside potential for US soybeans. Harvest pressure: The current US crop is moving toward harvest, which can increase physical availability once weather conditions improve. Mixed soybean oil market: Nearby soybean oil gains were offset by declines in several deferred contracts. US Harvest Weather Creates a Short-Term Supply Risk Weather has become an important near-term factor for soybean prices. Forecast rainfall of more than 1–3 inches across parts of the Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt could delay fieldwork and slow the movement of newly harvested soybeans into the commercial market. That creates a temporary supply constraint if wet conditions persist. However, the effect could prove short-lived if fields dry quickly and harvest resumes at a faster pace. The market therefore needs to distinguish between a temporary harvest delay and a genuine reduction in crop size. NOPA Crush Falls Short of Expectations NOPA reported August soybean crush of 205.46 million bushels, below the market estimate of 211.55 million bushels. Although the figure was still 8.24% above last year's level, the shortfall versus expectations provides a bearish counterweight to Tuesday's price gains. Soybean oil stocks stood at 1.201 billion pounds, down 3.5% from a year earlier. The decline in oil inventories offers some support to the vegetable-oil side of the complex, although the overall impact is being offset by the weaker-than-expected crush figure. Brazil's Record Crop Outlook Limits the Longer-Term Upside Brazil remains the most important supply variable for the soybean market. CONAB estimates the country's 2025/26 crop at 180.4 MMT, only 0.06 MMT below its previous estimate. More importantly, its initial 2026/27 forecast is 181.64 MMT. The USDA is currently more bullish on Brazilian production, forecasting 186 MMT for 2026/27. If production approaches those levels, Brazil would have substantial exportable supplies available to compete with US soybeans, particularly during the second half of the marketing year. Soybean Market FactorCurrent Market SignalNov 2026 Soybeans$13.18¾/bushelNovember daily move+14½ centsJan 2027 Soybeans$13.35¼January daily move+15 centsMar 2027 Soybeans$13.43March daily move+15 centsNearby cash beans$12.60Cash daily move+14½ centsAugust NOPA crush205.46 million bushelsNOPA estimate211.55 million bushelsCrush vs last year+8.24%Soybean oil stocks1.201 billion lbsSoybean oil stocks YoY-3.5%Brazil 2025/26 CONAB180.4 MMTBrazil 2026/27 CONAB181.64 MMTBrazil 2026/27 USDA186 MMTUS weatherHeavy rain riskKey market tensionHarvest disruption vs expanding Brazilian supply Soymeal Strength Is Supporting the Soybean Complex Soymeal was one of the strongest components of the soybean complex on Tuesday, gaining as much as $9.90. That strength can encourage processors to maintain or increase soybean demand, particularly when meal demand remains firm. At the same time, the divergence between meal and deferred soybean oil contracts indicates that traders are not uniformly bullish across the entire complex. Product-specific fundamentals remain important for determining where soybean prices go next. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus will be on US weather and harvest progress, particularly whether heavy rainfall materially delays fieldwork across the Midwest. Traders will also monitor: US soybean harvest pace and yield results Further NOPA crush data Soymeal and soybean oil spreads Brazilian planting conditions Updates to CONAB and USDA production forecasts Export demand for US soybeans Currency movements affecting Brazilian and US export competitiveness Currency Hedger View Soybeans are particularly sensitive to currency movements because Brazil and the United States compete directly in global export markets. A weaker Brazilian real can improve the competitiveness of Brazilian soybean exports, while a stronger US dollar can make US supplies less attractive to international buyers. For exporters, processors and international commodity buyers, managing FX exposure can therefore be almost as important as managing the underlying soybean price. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Soybeans are currently caught between short-term weather support and a potentially bearish long-term supply outlook. Heavy rainfall could slow the US harvest and temporarily tighten nearby physical availability, while stronger soymeal prices are providing additional support. However, the large Brazilian production outlook and the below-expectation August crush figure prevent the market from presenting a straightforward bullish fundamental picture. The next major signal is likely to come from the US harvest. If weather delays persist, soybean prices could retain their near-term strength. If harvesting accelerates once fields dry, attention may quickly return to the large South American supply outlook. “Soybeans are benefiting from a combination of harvest-weather risk and strong soymeal prices, but the longer-term supply picture remains a significant constraint. The market needs sustained weather disruption or stronger demand to overcome the scale of Brazilian production expected for 2026/27.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Soybean futures climbed on Tuesday, with November 2026 soybeans rising 14½ cents to $13.18¾ and January and March contracts gaining 15 cents. The bullish case is centred on heavy Midwest rainfall, potential harvest delays, strong soymeal prices and declining soybean oil inventories. The bearish case remains focused on the large Brazilian 2026/27 crop outlook and an August US soybean crush that fell below expectations. For now, the soybean market remains a battle between near-term US harvest disruption and expanding South American supply expectations. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 16, 2026

Wheat Futures Rise as Ukraine-Russia Energy Conflict and Algeria Tender Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis: Wheat futures strengthened across all three major US exchanges on Tuesday, with Chicago SRW, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts closing higher. The rally reflects a combination of geopolitical risk surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, fresh international demand from Algeria and tighter expectations for French wheat production. December 2026 CBOT wheat settled at $7.28½ per bushel, while December KC HRW wheat closed at $7.96¼ and December Minneapolis wheat reached $7.49½. However, the market remains finely balanced between geopolitical supply risks and the prospect of ample global production. Wheat Futures Gain Across All Three US Exchanges Chicago SRW wheat posted gains of 5¼ to 8½ cents, Kansas City HRW futures rose 2¾ to 6¼ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat advanced 9 to 12¼ cents. The strongest move came in Minneapolis spring wheat, suggesting renewed buying interest in higher-protein wheat markets. Deferred contracts also remained firm, indicating that Tuesday's strength was not limited to the nearby delivery month. The rally comes as traders assess developments in the Black Sea region alongside fresh export demand. Bullish Sentiment Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure attacks: Renewed strikes are keeping geopolitical and supply-chain risks elevated across the Black Sea region. Algerian demand: Algeria purchased nearly 500,000 metric tonnes of wheat, providing a significant demand signal for international exporters. French production downgrade: France's 2026 wheat crop estimate was reduced to 31.7 MMT, down 0.2 MMT from the previous estimate. Black Sea uncertainty: Any disruption to Russian or Ukrainian agricultural infrastructure could affect export flows and global availability. Strong Minneapolis performance: Spring wheat's larger gains indicate additional support in higher-quality wheat markets. Bearish Sentiment Global supply remains substantial: Wheat prices still face competition from major exporters, limiting the impact of individual production reductions. French crop remains large: Despite the downward revision, estimated French production of 31.7 MMT represents significant supply. Geopolitical headlines can reverse quickly: Any reduction in military or infrastructure disruption could remove part of the current risk premium. Export competition: Russia and other major exporters remain important sources of global wheat supply. Higher prices could encourage selling: Continued gains may attract producer hedging and speculative profit-taking. Russia-Ukraine Energy Conflict Keeps Wheat Risk Premium Elevated Geopolitical developments remain a major variable for wheat markets. President Donald Trump called on Ukraine to halt attacks against Russian energy infrastructure on Monday, raising the prospect of reduced disruption between the two sides. However, further strikes on energy infrastructure on Tuesday appeared to complicate those expectations. For wheat traders, the significance extends beyond energy markets. Russia and Ukraine are major participants in global grain exports, meaning disruption to ports, electricity infrastructure, storage facilities, transport networks or other agricultural infrastructure can quickly affect market expectations. The immediate question is therefore whether the latest attacks represent a temporary escalation or the beginning of a more sustained disruption to Black Sea agricultural flows. Algeria Wheat Tender Provides a Fresh Demand Signal International demand is providing another source of support. Algeria's tender resulted in purchases of nearly 500,000 MMT of wheat, reinforcing the importance of North African import demand for global exporters. Large tenders can provide short-term support when they coincide with geopolitical uncertainty, particularly if buyers are securing supplies ahead of potential disruptions. For US wheat, however, the longer-term impact will depend on where Algeria sources the grain and how competitive US offers remain against European and Black Sea suppliers. French Wheat Production Estimate Falls to 31.7 MMT France's agriculture ministry reduced its estimate for the country's 2026 wheat production to 31.7 MMT, down 0.2 MMT from the previous forecast. The reduction adds a modest bullish element to the European supply outlook, particularly when combined with strong international tender activity. However, the revision is relatively small compared with the overall size of the crop. Traders are therefore likely to focus more heavily on export flows, weather developments and the availability of Black Sea wheat. Wheat Futures: Key Market Levels Wheat Market FactorCurrent Market SignalDec 2026 CBOT Wheat$7.28½/bushelCBOT daily move+6½ centsMar 2027 CBOT Wheat$7.44½Mar CBOT daily move+5¼ centsDec 2026 KC HRW$7.96¼KC daily move+3¾ centsMar 2027 KC HRW$8.09¾Mar KC daily move+3 centsDec 2026 Minneapolis Wheat$7.49½MPLS daily move+12¼ centsMar 2027 Minneapolis Wheat$7.69¼Mar MPLS daily move+11¾ centsFrench 2026 wheat estimate31.7 MMTFrench estimate revision-0.2 MMTAlgeria tenderNearly 500,000 MT purchasedKey market tensionGeopolitical risk and demand vs global supply What Traders Are Watching Next The wheat market is likely to remain highly sensitive to Russia-Ukraine developments, particularly any further attacks involving energy or agricultural infrastructure. Traders will also monitor additional international tenders, European production estimates and Black Sea export flows. The key question is whether Tuesday's rally develops into a broader trend or remains a short-term reaction to geopolitical risk and fresh export demand. Currency Hedger View For international wheat buyers and exporters, movements in the US dollar and European currencies can materially alter the competitiveness of wheat between major exporting regions. A stronger dollar can make US wheat more expensive for overseas buyers, while currency weakness among European or Black Sea exporters can improve their export competitiveness. Companies with recurring wheat purchases or sales therefore need to consider both the underlying commodity price and the associated foreign-exchange exposure. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Wheat markets are receiving support from geopolitical uncertainty, international demand and a modest reduction in French production expectations, but the bullish case is being balanced by substantial global supply and continued competition among major exporters. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains the most important wildcard. If infrastructure attacks continue, wheat could retain a geopolitical risk premium. If tensions ease and export flows remain uninterrupted, the market may refocus more heavily on global supply and competition. “Wheat is responding to a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and fresh international demand, but the rally still faces the reality of substantial global supply. The next sustained move will depend heavily on whether Black Sea disruption becomes a genuine supply issue or remains primarily a risk premium.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Wheat futures moved higher across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis on Tuesday, with Minneapolis spring wheat recording the strongest gains. The bullish case is being supported by renewed Russia-Ukraine infrastructure risks, nearly 500,000 MT of Algerian purchases and a lower French 2026 production estimate. The bearish case remains centred on substantial global availability, export competition and the possibility that geopolitical tensions do not materially disrupt grain flows. For now, wheat remains a market caught between geopolitical risk and fundamental supply. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 16, 2026

Corn Prices Rise as Brazil Crop Forecast Jumps While US Harvest Faces Weather Risk

Today Markets Analysis: Corn futures edged higher on Tuesday, with December 2026 corn rising 2½ cents to $5.3575 per bushel, as the grain complex recovered alongside a sharp increase in crude oil prices. The move came despite a potentially bearish supply outlook from Brazil, where CONAB increased its 2025/26 production estimate and issued an initial 2026/27 forecast above the USDA's current projection. At the same time, wet weather across parts of the US Corn Belt could slow early harvest activity, creating a near-term supply and logistics consideration for the market. Corn Futures Recover as Grains and Oil Strengthen December corn futures closed at $5.3575, while March 2027 corn settled at $5.5025 and May 2027 at $5.5675. The gains followed a weaker morning session, with corn finding support alongside the broader grain complex and a $4.09-per-barrel increase in crude oil. Nearby cash corn also strengthened, rising 3 cents to approximately $4.905 per bushel. The market is now balancing short-term harvest conditions against increasingly large South American production expectations. Bullish Sentiment Several factors are providing support to corn prices: US harvest delays: Rainfall of 1–3 inches is expected across parts of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and the eastern Corn Belt, potentially slowing early harvest progress. Wet conditions: Heavy precipitation in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Missouri could create additional harvesting and field-access problems. Crude oil strength: Higher energy prices can support agricultural commodity values through increased production, transportation and ethanol-related costs. Harvest uncertainty: Delays to fieldwork can temporarily restrict the flow of newly harvested corn into the physical market. Strong deferred prices: March and May contracts remain above December, indicating continued value further along the forward curve. Bearish Sentiment The supply outlook is becoming increasingly difficult for corn bulls: Brazil's 2025/26 crop forecast increased: CONAB raised its estimate by 1.04 million tonnes to 144 million tonnes. Large 2026/27 Brazilian crop: CONAB's initial forecast stands at 148 million tonnes. CONAB exceeds USDA: The Brazilian forecast is 9 million tonnes above the USDA's 139 million-tonne estimate. Expanding South American supply: A larger Brazilian crop increases competition with US corn in global export markets. Harvest is approaching: Once weather allows fieldwork to accelerate, additional US supply could enter the physical market. Higher production expectations: Larger Brazilian output could increase global availability and limit the upside potential for futures. Brazil's Corn Crop Becomes a Major Supply Signal CONAB's latest figures are particularly important because Brazil is becoming an increasingly significant supplier to the global corn market. The agency raised its 2025/26 production estimate to 144 million tonnes, an increase of 1.04 million tonnes from its previous forecast. More importantly, CONAB's initial 2026/27 estimate of 148 million tonnes is substantially above the USDA's current projection of 139 million tonnes. That nine-million-tonne difference creates an important forecasting gap for traders. If Brazilian production ultimately approaches CONAB's estimate, the additional supply could increase export availability and place pressure on international corn prices. Corn Market FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember 2026 corn$5.3575/bushelDecember daily move+2.5¢Nearby cash corn$4.905/bushelCash daily move+3¢March 2027 corn$5.5025March daily move+2.25¢May 2027 corn$5.5675May daily move+1.5¢Brazil 2025/26 crop — CONAB144 MMTCONAB revision+1.04 MMTBrazil 2026/27 — CONAB148 MMTBrazil 2026/27 — USDA139 MMTForecast difference9 MMTUS harvest weatherPotential delaysCrude oil+$4.09/bblKey market tensionUS harvest disruption vs expanding Brazilian supply US Harvest Weather Creates a Near-Term Supply Risk Weather is becoming increasingly important as the US harvest gets underway. Forecast rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across parts of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and the eastern Corn Belt could slow fieldwork during the coming week. Heavier totals are expected across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Missouri, potentially creating more significant harvesting and transportation challenges. For corn prices, the effect depends on how long the disruption lasts. A short-lived delay could simply postpone deliveries without materially changing total production. A more persistent period of wet weather, however, could increase concerns about harvest quality, field losses and the timing of physical supply reaching the market. Crude Oil Adds Support to Agricultural Commodities Crude oil gained $4.09 per barrel on Tuesday, providing an additional supportive influence across the commodity complex. Higher energy prices can increase the cost of farming inputs, transportation and grain handling. Oil is also closely connected to the economics of ethanol production, making energy-market developments particularly relevant to US corn demand. However, the impact of higher crude prices must be weighed against the potentially bearish effect of larger Brazilian corn supplies. Brazil and the US Set Up a Global Supply Competition The corn market is entering a period where US harvest progress and Brazilian production expectations will increasingly interact. The US remains a major global corn supplier, but Brazil's large crop has strengthened its position in international trade. If US harvest delays restrict near-term availability while Brazilian production continues to expand, the two markets could produce opposing signals: tighter immediate US physical supply versus greater global availability further ahead. That dynamic is likely to keep corn futures sensitive to both weather forecasts and production revisions. What Traders Are Watching Next Corn traders will be focused on: US harvest progress as rainfall moves across the Corn Belt. Crop conditions and harvest yields once more fields are brought in. CONAB's Brazilian production updates following the new 2026/27 estimate. The USDA's response to the nine-million-tonne difference between its forecast and CONAB's projection. Brazilian export competitiveness as the new crop enters the market. Crude oil prices, particularly given their influence on ethanol economics and agricultural costs. The December-to-deferred futures structure for indications of changing supply expectations. Currency Hedger View Corn is a globally traded commodity, meaning movements in the US dollar and producer-currency exchange rates can influence export competitiveness and margins. For grain traders, exporters, processors and agricultural businesses, combining commodity-price hedging with FX risk management can help reduce the impact of simultaneous moves in corn futures and currency markets. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Corn is currently caught between near-term weather support and an increasingly comfortable medium-term supply outlook. Wet conditions could slow the US harvest and temporarily restrict physical availability, while stronger crude oil prices are adding support to the broader commodity complex. However, CONAB's new Brazilian forecasts introduce a significant bearish consideration, particularly with the 2026/27 crop estimated at 148 million tonnes versus the USDA's 139 million tonnes. The next major question is whether US harvest disruption can generate enough short-term tightness to offset expectations for expanding Brazilian supply. “Corn has near-term support from wet US harvest conditions and stronger energy prices, but Brazil's rising production outlook is becoming an increasingly important bearish factor. The market is therefore balancing immediate supply disruption against a potentially larger global supply base.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Corn prices edged higher Tuesday as wet US harvest conditions and stronger crude oil supported the grain complex. The bullish case is centred on potential harvest delays, higher energy prices and temporary restrictions on new-crop supply. The bearish case is increasingly driven by Brazil, where CONAB forecasts 144 million tonnes for 2025/26 and 148 million tonnes for 2026/27, with the latter significantly above the USDA estimate. For now, US harvest weather is the immediate driver, while Brazilian production expectations represent the larger medium-term supply risk. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 16, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall as Brazil Rain Boosts 2026/27 Crop Outlook

Today Markets Analysis: Coffee prices came under renewed pressure on Tuesday, with December arabica coffee falling 2.36% to 283.25 cents per pound and November robusta declining 1.53% to $3,476 per tonne. The latest weakness reflects improving crop conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, record Brazilian exports and expectations for a larger global coffee surplus. However, the market remains divided. Falling ICE arabica inventories, potential El Niño-related weather disruptions and longer-term crop risks provide support, while rising production forecasts and strong export flows remain significant bearish factors. Arabica and Robusta Prices Extend Their Decline December ICE arabica closed down 6.85 cents, while November robusta fell 54 points, extending the recent pressure across both major coffee contracts. Brazil is currently at a critical stage of the 2026/27 arabica crop cycle, with flowering conditions becoming an important indicator for next year's production. Above-normal rainfall in Minas Gerais is improving moisture availability, increasing expectations that the next Brazilian crop could benefit from favourable growing conditions. Vietnam is also seeing improved conditions, with abundant rainfall raising soil moisture across the Central Highlands and potentially supporting cherry development. Bullish Sentiment Several factors continue to provide support for coffee prices: ICE arabica inventories: Stocks fell to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags, highlighting tight certified availability. El Niño risk: Potential disruptions to rainfall patterns in Brazil and other producing regions could damage the 2026/27 crop. Brazil flowering period: September and October remain particularly important for the development of next year's crop. Global weather uncertainty: Flooding, drought and temperature fluctuations could create production problems across South America and Asia. Robusta production risk: Vietnam remains vulnerable to weather-related disruptions despite currently favourable rainfall. Supply tightness in certified stocks: The sharp decline in ICE arabica inventories contrasts with the improving production outlook. Bearish Sentiment The immediate fundamental picture remains heavily influenced by expanding supply: Brazilian exports surged: August total coffee exports increased 31% year-on-year to a record 4.155 million bags. Brazilian arabica exports: Shipments increased 26% to 2.87 million bags. Brazilian robusta exports: Shipments jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazilian production outlook: The USDA expects a record 71.9 million bags from Brazil in 2026/27, up 14%. Global production: USDA forecasts 2026/27 global coffee output at a record 189.7 million bags, up 6%. Global surplus: The ICO expects a 3 million-bag surplus in 2025/26, the first surplus in five years. Vietnam exports: January-August 2026 exports rose 13.7% year-on-year. Robusta inventories: ICE robusta stocks climbed to a 9.5-month high of 5,043 lots. Brazil Rainfall Improves the 2026/27 Coffee Crop Outlook Weather in Brazil has become one of the most important short-term drivers. Somar Meteorologia reported 59.4 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ending September 13, equivalent to 1,212% of the historical average for that period. Minas Gerais is Brazil's main arabica-producing region, making the rainfall particularly significant as trees enter the flowering phase. For coffee prices, the market is therefore balancing two opposing signals: the rainfall is bearish because it improves the prospects for next year's crop, but weather forecasts remain vulnerable to sudden changes during the critical flowering period. Brazil's Record Exports Keep Pressure on Coffee Brazil's current crop is reaching international markets at a rapid pace. Total August coffee exports reached a record 4.155 million bags, with both arabica and robusta shipments recording substantial annual increases. Brazil's Trade Ministry separately reported that August coffee exports rose 44.6% year-on-year to 206,618 tonnes, the highest level in eight months. The strong export performance is providing physical-market supply at a time when futures traders are already anticipating increased global production. Global Coffee Supply Is Moving Into Surplus The International Coffee Organization's latest outlook represents a significant change in the global supply balance. The ICO expects 2025/26 production to rise 4.4% to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is forecast to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That leaves an estimated 3 million-bag surplus, marking the first global surplus in five years. The USDA's outlook is even more expansive for 2026/27, forecasting global production at 189.7 million bags, an increase of 10.8 million bags. Coffee Market FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember Arabica283.25¢/lbArabica daily move-2.36%November Robusta$3,476/tonneRobusta daily move-1.53%ICE Arabica stocks217,646 bagsArabica inventory signal27-year lowICE Robusta stocks5,043 lotsRobusta inventory signal9.5-month highBrazil August exports4.155m bagsBrazil export growth+31% YoYBrazil 2026/27 crop forecast71.9m bagsBrazil crop growth+14%USDA global 2026/27 crop189.7m bagsGlobal crop growth+6%ICO 2025/26 balance3m-bag surplusVietnam Jan-Aug exports1.33m tonnesKey market tensionGrowing supply vs tight arabica inventories Vietnam Adds to the Global Supply Outlook Vietnam's production and export figures are particularly important for the robusta market. The country's January-August 2026 coffee exports increased 13.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million tonnes, while 2025 exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million tonnes. The 2025/26 Vietnamese crop is also estimated at 1.76 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags, representing a four-year high. Improved rainfall across Vietnam's Central Highlands is now adding to expectations for healthy cherry development. That combination is weighing more heavily on robusta than arabica, particularly with ICE robusta inventories simultaneously rising. El Niño Remains the Major Weather Wildcard The bearish production outlook is not without risk. Coffee traders continue to monitor the developing El Niño weather pattern, which could disrupt rainfall across major producing regions. Commercial Coffee has warned that El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, potentially damaging flowering and reducing the 2026/27 crop. The US Climate Prediction Center has also indicated that the developing El Niño could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This creates an important distinction between the current supply outlook and the longer-term crop risk. Current rainfall is improving Brazil's crop prospects, but a sustained change in weather conditions could quickly alter expectations. Coffee Inventory Signals Are Sending Mixed Messages The inventory picture is unusually divided between arabica and robusta. ICE arabica inventories at 217,646 bags are at a 27-year low, providing a strong underlying supply argument for arabica futures. Robusta presents the opposite picture. ICE robusta inventories have climbed to 5,043 lots, their highest level in approximately 9.5 months. This divergence helps explain why the two contracts can respond differently to changes in supply expectations. What Traders Are Watching Next Coffee traders will be watching several factors closely: Brazilian flowering conditions as the 2026/27 crop develops. Brazilian export volumes following the record August shipments. Vietnamese rainfall and crop development in the Central Highlands. ICE arabica inventories, which remain historically low. ICE robusta inventories, which are moving in the opposite direction. El Niño forecasts and their potential impact on Brazil, Vietnam and other producing regions. USDA and ICO revisions to global production and consumption estimates. The key question is whether improving production expectations can continue to outweigh historically tight arabica inventories and emerging weather risks. Currency Hedger View Coffee is particularly sensitive to currency movements because Brazil and Vietnam are major exporters and changes in the US dollar against producer currencies can influence farmer selling and export economics. For coffee importers and roasters, the combination of volatile futures prices and currency movements can create significant changes in landed costs. Forward contracts and structured hedging can help businesses manage that combined commodity and FX exposure. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Coffee is currently caught between strong near-term supply signals and significant longer-term production risks. The bearish case is being reinforced by Brazil's record exports, favourable rainfall, rising Vietnamese supply and forecasts for record global production. At the same time, historically low ICE arabica inventories and the possibility of El Niño-related crop disruption prevent the supply outlook from being one-directional. The divergence between falling arabica stocks and rising robusta inventories is particularly important. It suggests that the market should not treat all coffee supply signals as identical. “Coffee prices are being pressured by an increasingly comfortable global supply outlook, but the exceptionally low level of certified arabica inventories and the risk of El Niño disrupting next year's flowering cycle leave an important layer of uncertainty beneath the bearish trend.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Coffee prices are under pressure as favourable weather in Brazil and Vietnam, record Brazilian exports and expectations for record global production strengthen the supply outlook. The bearish case is led by rising production, strong exports and the expected global surplus. The bullish case is centred on historically low arabica inventories, El Niño risks and the possibility that weather conditions deteriorate during the critical flowering period. For now, the market remains focused on whether improving 2026/27 crop prospects can overcome tight certified arabica stocks and rising weather uncertainty. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 16, 2026

Sugar Prices Fall Toward Two-Week Low as Strong Dollar Meets Growing 2026/27 Supply Deficit

Today Markets Analysis: October NY World Sugar No. 11 futures fell 1.21% to 17.92 cents per pound on Tuesday, reaching a 1.5-week low, while October London ICE white sugar declined 0.48% to $522.50 per tonne. A stronger US dollar triggered long liquidation, putting pressure on sugar prices after the market recently reached multi-month highs. The short-term picture is bearish, but the medium-term outlook remains more complicated. Growing expectations of a global sugar deficit in 2026/27, declining production forecasts for major producers and worsening weather risks are providing underlying support. Sugar Prices Retreat as Long Positions Come Under Pressure The stronger dollar was the immediate catalyst behind Tuesday's decline, encouraging investors to reduce bullish positions in sugar futures. The scale of speculative positioning could make this liquidation particularly important. The latest Commitment of Traders data showed commodity funds increased their net-long NY sugar positions by 28,055 contracts during the week ending September 8, taking total net longs to 160,551, the highest level in almost three years. With NY sugar having reached a 17-month high last Thursday, the market had accumulated substantial bullish positioning. A reversal in momentum therefore has the potential to generate additional selling if funds continue reducing exposure. Bullish Sentiment 2026/27 global deficit: The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 200,000 MT global deficit, reversing from a projected 1.1 MMT surplus in 2025/26. StoneX deficit forecast: StoneX expects a substantially larger 1.7 MMT global deficit for 2026/27. Thailand production: Thai Sugar Millers expects 2026/27 output to fall 17% to 10 MMT. Brazil production: Recent Center-South sugar production has been significantly weaker year-on-year. India imports: India has authorised up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31, highlighting domestic supply pressure. El Niño: Potentially hotter and drier conditions could threaten production across Brazil, India and Thailand. Longer-term deficit: Czarnikow forecasts a 2.9 MMT global deficit for 2027/28. Bearish Sentiment Stronger US dollar: Dollar appreciation increases pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Heavy speculative positioning: Funds hold their largest NY sugar net-long position in almost three years. Long liquidation risk: A reversal following the recent 17-month high could accelerate selling. 2025/26 surplus: The ISO expects a 1.1 MMT global surplus for the current season. Record production: Global 2025/26 sugar production is forecast at approximately 182 MMT. India's longer-term outlook: USDA forecasts Indian 2026/27 production to rise 12% to 33.6 MMT. Global inventories: USDA expects 2026/27 ending stocks to increase 2% to 44.41 MMT. Global Sugar Supply Is Moving Toward a Deficit The central fundamental story is changing. The 2025/26 season remains relatively well supplied, with the ISO forecasting record global production of around 182 MMT and a 1.1 MMT surplus. However, expectations for 2026/27 have deteriorated sharply. The ISO now expects production to fall around 1% to 180.1 MMT, producing a 200,000 MT deficit. StoneX's forecast is considerably more bullish, projecting a 1.7 MMT deficit, while other analysts have also moved away from earlier surplus expectations. This shift is important because the market is transitioning from a period of comfortable supply toward one where production disruptions could have a greater effect on prices. Brazil, India and Thailand Remain Critical The world's three major sugar-producing regions are at the centre of the supply debate. Brazil is already showing signs of production pressure, with Center-South June sugar output falling 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 MMT. Thailand is also facing a significant production reduction, with Thai Sugar Millers projecting 2026/27 output at only 10 MMT, down 17%. India presents a more mixed picture. The country has allowed up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31, despite usually being a major exporter. At the same time, USDA forecasts India's 2026/27 production could recover to 33.6 MMT, which would partially offset production losses elsewhere. Sugar Market FactorCurrent Market SignalOctober NY sugar17.92¢/lbNY sugar daily move-1.21%October London sugar$522.50/MTLondon sugar daily move-0.48%Recent NY high17-month highFund net-long positions160,551Fund weekly position increase+28,0552025/26 ISO balance+1.1 MMT surplus2026/27 ISO balance-200,000 MT deficit2026/27 StoneX forecast-1.7 MMT deficit2026/27 Thailand production10 MMTThailand annual change-17%Brazil Center-South June output3.903 MMTBrazil annual change-26.3%India authorised importsUp to 1 MMTIndia monsoon rainfall15% below normalKey market tensionLong liquidation vs tightening future supply India's Weak Monsoon Adds Another Supply Risk India's monsoon is another important variable for the sugar market. Cumulative rainfall for the June-September monsoon season was 15% below normal as of September 15, although conditions have improved substantially from the 42% deficit recorded at the end of June. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, meaning prolonged rainfall shortages could affect cane development and future production. The country's weather outlook therefore remains important for the 2026/27 balance, particularly alongside concerns over production in Thailand and Brazil. El Niño Could Tighten the Global Sugar Market Weather is becoming an increasingly important bullish factor. The US Climate Prediction Center has warned that the emerging El Niño pattern could be among the strongest in more than 75 years. A strong El Niño can produce drier conditions in important agricultural regions, including Brazil, India and Thailand. For sugar, this raises the possibility of lower cane yields and reduced production. If adverse weather persists into critical crop-development periods, current deficit forecasts could become even more pronounced. The US Dollar and Speculative Positioning Are the Immediate Risks Despite the tightening medium-term supply outlook, sugar remains vulnerable to a technical correction. The combination of a stronger dollar and exceptionally large speculative long positions creates a clear liquidation risk. With funds holding their largest net-long position in almost three years, even a relatively modest deterioration in price momentum could encourage traders to lock in profits. This is particularly relevant after NY sugar reached a 17-month high only days before Tuesday's decline. What Traders Are Watching Next Sugar traders will be focused on whether Tuesday's decline develops into a broader liquidation move or remains a short-term correction within a tightening fundamental market. Key indicators include: Commodity-fund positioning The US dollar index Brazilian Center-South production Indian monsoon conditions Thailand's 2026/27 production outlook Global sugar production estimates El Niño developments India's import and export policies Evidence of changing global sugar inventories The market's ability to hold above recent lows will be important for determining whether speculative selling is beginning to dominate the fundamentals. Currency Hedger View Sugar producers, processors and international buyers face a combination of commodity-price and foreign-exchange exposure, particularly when contracts are priced in US dollars. For commercial participants, a stronger dollar can increase local-currency procurement costs even when the underlying sugar price is unchanged. Currency hedging can therefore help manage the additional volatility created by movements in both sugar and the US dollar. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Sugar's latest decline is being driven primarily by positioning and currency markets rather than a fundamental collapse in the longer-term supply outlook. The bearish case is clear in the short term: the stronger dollar, record speculative net-long exposure and the recent 17-month high create conditions for further liquidation. However, the underlying supply picture is becoming progressively tighter. The ISO has moved from a projected surplus in 2025/26 to a deficit for 2026/27, while StoneX is forecasting an even larger shortfall. Production risks in Brazil and Thailand, India's weak monsoon and the potential impact of El Niño add further uncertainty. “Sugar is experiencing a short-term positioning correction while the longer-term supply picture is becoming tighter. The key question is whether fund liquidation overwhelms the emerging 2026/27 deficit story or simply creates a deeper correction before fundamentals regain control.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line October NY sugar fell 1.21% on Tuesday to a 1.5-week low, while London white sugar declined 0.48%, as a stronger US dollar triggered long liquidation. The bearish case is centred on heavy speculative positioning, the current-season global surplus and stronger dollar pressure. The bullish case is supported by growing 2026/27 deficit forecasts, weaker production expectations in Brazil and Thailand, India's below-normal monsoon and increasing El Niño risks. For now, sugar remains caught between near-term speculative selling and a potentially much tighter global supply balance ahead. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 16, 2026

Cocoa Prices Fall as Ivory Coast Supply Rises While West Africa Crop Risks Build

Today Markets Analysis: December ICE New York cocoa futures fell 1.66% to 5,920 on Tuesday, while December ICE London cocoa declined 1.55% to 4,307. The latest move lower reflects growing evidence of adequate near-term supply, particularly from Ivory Coast, although concerns over the quality and size of the next West African crop continue to provide medium-term support. The cocoa market is therefore facing a clear split: strong current production and rising inventories are bearish, while lower crop forecasts, disease, weather risks and expectations of tighter future supply remain bullish. Cocoa Prices Retreat as Supply Signals Improve The latest decline follows evidence that Ivory Coast has delivered substantially more cocoa to ports than during the comparable period last season. Cumulative Ivory Coast shipments reached approximately 2.14 million metric tons between October 1, 2025 and September 13, 2026, according to Bloomberg data, representing an 18% increase from the previous year. However, the picture becomes less straightforward when the country's revised marketing calendar is considered. Ivory Coast has moved the start of its marketing year to September 1, and deliveries between September 1 and September 13 were reportedly 26,000 MT, down 45.8% from the comparable period. This creates an important distinction between strong completed-season production and potentially weaker early indications for the new crop. Bullish Sentiment Ghana crop forecast: Ghana's 2026/27 production estimate has been cut to around 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT. Ivory Coast crop concerns: Early assessments point to poor pod development and below-average cherelle formation. West African disease: Cloudy weather and limited sunshine are contributing to black pod disease concerns. El Niño risk: Warmer and drier conditions could reduce soil moisture and pressure cocoa yields. Global surplus shrinking: StoneX reduced its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to only 25,000 MT from 149,000 MT. Ghana farmer prices: A proposed 6% increase in farmer payments could encourage producers to delay selling. Future supply: Several forecasts point toward lower West African production during the coming season. Bearish Sentiment Ivory Coast shipments: Cumulative deliveries remain substantially above the previous year's level. Ivory Coast production: The regulator reported 2.06 MMT harvested for the June 2025–June 2026 period, up 30% year-on-year. ICE inventories: Exchange stocks remain close to a two-year high at 3.42 million bags. Global supply: Barry Callebaut has described the global cocoa market as well supplied. Ghana's current crop: Ghana harvested approximately 750,000 MT in 2025/26, up 25.6% year-on-year. European demand: Q2 European cocoa grindings fell 4.6%, reaching their lowest level for the quarter in six years. Recent price strength: New York and London cocoa recently reached 11.5-month highs, leaving the market vulnerable to profit-taking. Ivory Coast Supply Provides Near-Term Price Pressure Ivory Coast remains the dominant variable for the cocoa market. The country's reported 2.06 MMT harvest for the latest season represents a significant increase from the previous year and provides evidence that supply conditions have improved substantially. The increase in cumulative port arrivals is reinforcing that bearish signal. However, traders are increasingly looking beyond the completed crop and toward the quality and development of the 2026/27 harvest. Poor pod formation and disease concerns could become more important if the new crop fails to match earlier production expectations. Cocoa Inventories Remain a Bearish Signal ICE cocoa inventories have risen to levels not seen for around two years. Stocks reached 3,436,742 bags on September 4 before easing modestly to 3,421,650 bags on Tuesday. High exchange inventories indicate that physical availability remains relatively comfortable, reducing the immediate scarcity premium in cocoa futures. That is particularly important after the market's strong rally during August, when New York cocoa reached an 11.5-month high. Cocoa Market FactorCurrent Market SignalDecember NY cocoa5,920NY cocoa daily move-1.66%December London cocoa4,307London cocoa daily move-1.55%Ivory Coast cumulative shipments2.14 MMTShipment growth+18% year-on-yearIvory Coast latest harvest2.06 MMTHarvest growth+30%ICE cocoa inventories3.42 million bagsGhana 2026/27 crop estimate650,000 MTGhana 2025/26 harvest750,000 MTStoneX 2026/27 surplus estimate25,000 MTEuropean Q2 grindings-4.6%North American Q2 grindings+7.7%Asian Q2 grindings+25%Key market tensionStrong current supply vs future crop risks Ghana and Ivory Coast Crop Risks Keep the Bullish Case Alive While current production data are bearish, the outlook for the next crop is considerably less comfortable. Ghana's Cocoa Board estimates the 2026/27 crop at 650,000 MT, while earlier projections from Ghana's cocoa regulator have placed possible production even lower, at between 450,000 and 550,000 MT, reflecting concerns over swollen shoot disease, ageing farms and adverse weather. Ivory Coast is also facing questions about the next main crop. Early surveys reportedly show below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development, with some estimates placing the coming crop around 1.8 MMT, compared with approximately 2.2 MMT previously. If those forecasts prove accurate, the current supply surplus could narrow considerably. El Niño Creates a Medium-Term Weather Risk Weather remains one of the biggest upside risks for cocoa prices. An El Niño pattern can produce warmer and drier conditions across West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture and stressing cocoa trees during critical development periods. The market is therefore pricing two different time horizons. Near-term fundamentals point toward adequate availability, while the medium-term weather outlook raises the possibility of declining production. That distinction could keep volatility elevated even if inventories remain high. Cocoa Demand Sends a Mixed Signal Demand indicators are also divided geographically. European Q2 cocoa grindings fell 4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than expected and the weakest Q2 result in six years. North American grindings, however, rose 7.7% year-on-year to 109,659 MT, significantly exceeding expectations. Asian demand was stronger still, with Q2 grindings increasing 25% to 224,646 MT, according to the Cocoa Association of Asia. The regional divergence suggests that the demand outlook is not uniformly weak, but Europe's decline remains an important bearish factor for the global market. What Traders Are Watching Next The key question is whether the cocoa market continues to focus on comfortable current supply or begins to price in the risks surrounding the 2026/27 West African crop. Traders will be watching: New Ivory Coast arrivals and early-season production data ICE certified inventories Ghana crop-development reports Black pod disease and other crop-quality indicators West African rainfall and sunshine levels El Niño developments Global cocoa grindings Producer selling behaviour following Ghana's proposed farmer-pay increase A continued rise in inventories would reinforce the bearish case, while evidence of weaker-than-expected crop development could shift attention back toward future supply shortages. Currency Hedger View Cocoa is priced internationally in major currencies, making USD movements an important secondary factor for producers, processors and commercial buyers. A stronger dollar can affect purchasing costs and international demand, while currency volatility can complicate forward procurement and margin planning. For companies with significant cocoa exposure, the combination of commodity-price volatility and foreign-exchange risk makes structured hedging increasingly relevant. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Cocoa is currently caught between strong present-day supply and increasingly concerning future crop fundamentals. The bearish argument is supported by higher Ivory Coast production, strong cumulative shipments, elevated ICE inventories and evidence that the global market is currently well supplied. The recent decline in European grindings also provides a demand-side warning. Against that, Ghana's lower crop forecast, poor early pod development in Ivory Coast, disease risks and the potential impact of El Niño create a significant medium-term bullish argument. “Cocoa is increasingly becoming a two-horizon market. Current inventories and Ivory Coast production are weighing on prices today, but the next West African crop carries enough disease and weather risk to keep the longer-term supply outlook uncertain.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line December New York and London cocoa futures fell more than 1.5% on Tuesday as evidence of adequate supply and elevated inventories encouraged selling. The bearish case is centred on stronger Ivory Coast production, higher cumulative shipments, large ICE inventories and weaker European grinding demand. The bullish case rests on lower Ghana crop expectations, deteriorating crop-quality indicators, disease risks and the potential impact of El Niño on West African yields. For now, cocoa remains a market where strong current supply is competing directly with the risk of tighter future production. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 16, 2026

Cotton Futures Hold Near 84 Cents as US Crop Progress, Oil Prices and Dollar Set Market Direction

Today Markets Analysis: US cotton futures were mixed on Tuesday, with the nearby October contract edging higher while deferred contracts moved lower as traders balanced improving US crop conditions against rising energy costs and currency-market pressure. October cotton settled at 81.10 cents per pound, up 46 points, while December fell 7 points to 84.48 cents and March 2027 declined 13 points to 86.99 cents. The market is being pulled between improving evidence of US crop development and several external factors that could influence demand and production economics, including higher crude oil prices and a firmer US dollar. Cotton Futures Show Mixed Performance The cotton market remains relatively divided across the futures curve. October cotton posted a modest gain, while December and March contracts declined. The difference suggests traders are assessing near-term supply conditions separately from expectations further into the marketing year. The latest US Crop Progress data showed that 57% of the US cotton crop had reached the boll-opening stage as of Sunday, while 8% had been harvested. Crop conditions also improved, with 36% of the crop rated good or excellent, up two percentage points from the previous week. However, the improvement was not uniform. Poor and very poor ratings also increased by two percentage points, leaving the Brugler500 index unchanged at 298. Bullish Sentiment Several factors could provide support for cotton prices. Improving crop conditions remain uneven: Although good/excellent ratings increased, poor/very poor ratings also rose. Harvest progress is still limited: Only 8% of the US crop had been harvested, leaving production exposed to weather and field conditions. Higher crude oil prices: Rising energy costs can increase agricultural production, transportation and processing expenses. Lower Adjusted World Price: The AWP declined to 69.51 cents/lb, potentially affecting the economics of US cotton. Certified stocks remain relatively contained: ICE certified stocks were steady at 38,462 bales. Bearish Sentiment The market also faces several factors that could restrict upside. US crop development is progressing: With 57% of the crop at the boll-opening stage, the market is receiving greater visibility on potential supply. Harvesting has begun: The 8% harvested figure confirms that new-crop supply is beginning to enter the market. Stronger US dollar: A firmer dollar can make US cotton less competitive for international buyers. Lower Cotlook A Index: The Cotlook A Index declined 205 points to 96.15, signalling softer international benchmark pricing. Deferred contracts are weaker: December and March futures both closed lower, indicating some caution further along the curve. US Crop Progress Becomes the Key Supply Indicator The US crop is entering an increasingly important stage. With 57% of the crop showing opened bolls and 8% already harvested, traders are gaining greater visibility on eventual production. The improvement in good/excellent ratings provides a constructive supply signal, but the simultaneous increase in poor/very poor ratings highlights continued variation across growing regions. The next several crop-progress reports will therefore be closely watched for evidence of whether improving conditions translate into stronger production expectations or whether weather and field conditions create further uncertainty. Cotton Market FactorCurrent Market SignalOctober 2026 cotton81.10¢/lbOctober daily move+46 pointsDecember 2026 cotton84.48¢/lbDecember daily move-7 pointsMarch 2027 cotton86.99¢/lbMarch daily move-13 pointsUS crop with open bolls57%US crop harvested8%Good/excellent condition36%Good/excellent weekly change+2 percentage pointsBrugler500 index298ICE certified stocks38,462 balesCotlook A Index96.15Adjusted World Price69.51¢/lbCrude oil+$4.09/bblUS dollar index+0.249Key market tensionCrop progress vs energy, currency and demand pressures Crude Oil Adds Pressure to Cotton Production Costs Crude oil rose $4.09 per barrel during the session, adding another variable to the cotton market. Higher energy prices can increase costs throughout the agricultural supply chain, including fuel, transportation, machinery operation and processing. This can provide a degree of fundamental support for commodity prices, although the effect on cotton is not necessarily immediate. If higher energy prices also contribute to broader inflation and a stronger dollar, demand conditions could become more complicated. The US Dollar Remains Important for Export Demand The US dollar index also increased during the session, rising 0.249 points. Because cotton is traded internationally in US dollars, currency movements can influence the purchasing power of overseas buyers. A stronger dollar can make US-origin cotton more expensive in local-currency terms, potentially creating a headwind for export demand. This makes the relationship between cotton and the dollar particularly important as traders assess international demand alongside the developing US crop. International Cotton Prices Signal Caution The Cotlook A Index fell 205 points to 96.15 on September 14, providing another indication that international cotton pricing remains under pressure. The Adjusted World Price also declined 441 points to 69.51 cents per pound. The divergence between futures prices and international benchmarks will be important for traders because it can influence the relative competitiveness of US cotton and the economics of physical trade. What Traders Are Watching Next The cotton market is entering a period where supply visibility should increase rapidly. Traders will be watching: Further increases in the US harvested percentage. Whether good/excellent crop ratings continue improving. Whether poor/very poor ratings continue to rise. Changes in the Brugler500 crop index. ICE certified stock levels. The direction of the Cotlook A Index and Adjusted World Price. Crude oil prices and their effect on production costs. US dollar movements and international cotton demand. Whether December cotton can maintain the 84-cent area. Currency Hedger View For cotton producers, exporters and international textile businesses, the combination of commodity-price volatility and US dollar movements creates an additional layer of financial risk. A stronger dollar can affect the competitiveness of US cotton exports, while volatile energy prices can alter transportation and production costs. Businesses with cross-border cotton exposure therefore need to consider both cotton-price risk and currency risk when managing forward revenues and costs. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Cotton is currently being pulled between improving US crop visibility and a more complicated macroeconomic backdrop. The increase in good/excellent crop ratings and the beginning of harvest provide evidence that supply is progressing, but the simultaneous rise in poor/very poor ratings means the crop picture remains uneven. Meanwhile, stronger crude oil prices could increase production costs, while a firmer US dollar and weaker international benchmarks may create pressure on export competitiveness. “Cotton is moving into a critical transition period as the US harvest begins to provide clearer evidence of available supply. Improving crop conditions are a bearish influence, but uneven ratings, higher energy costs and currency movements are preventing the market from developing a straightforward direction.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Cotton futures were mixed, with October settling at 81.10 cents, while December closed at 84.48 cents and March 2027 at 86.99 cents. The bullish case is supported by limited harvest progress, uneven crop conditions, higher crude oil prices and the potential for continued supply uncertainty. The bearish case centres on improving crop development, the beginning of the US harvest, a stronger dollar and softer international cotton benchmarks. The next major signal will come from US crop-progress data and the pace of harvesting, while crude oil, the dollar and international cotton prices will remain important secondary drivers. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com

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Energies

September 16, 2026

Saudi Oil Shipments Cut as Supply Disruptions Push Brent Above $107

Today Markets Analysis: Crude oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday as overlapping supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia and Libya intensified concerns over global availability. Brent crude gained 0.9% to $107.39 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 1.17% to $103.51. The latest move follows Saudi Arabia's decision to cancel part of its September oil shipments to selected European refineries after a drone attack damaged pumping infrastructure and forced the shutdown of the country's strategic East-West pipeline. With repairs potentially taking several weeks, Saudi Arabia is attempting to redirect more exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while tanker shortages and sharply higher freight rates are adding another layer of pressure to the physical market. At the same time, Libya has suspended production at two oilfields following pipeline blockades, while planned maintenance in Kazakhstan and continuing disruptions to Russian fuel production are adding to the broader supply-risk picture. Brent Holds Above $107 as Supply Risks Intensify Brent has remained around the $107 per barrel region for several sessions, with traders increasingly focused on whether the current supply disruptions will persist. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is particularly important because its capacity of around 7 million barrels per day provides an alternative route for moving crude without relying on the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline shutdown therefore reduces Saudi Arabia's flexibility at precisely the moment when geopolitical tensions are making the maritime route more complicated. Industry estimates suggest repairs could take approximately three to five weeks, leaving the market exposed to a potentially prolonged reduction in available export capacity. Bullish Sentiment Several factors are currently supporting higher oil prices: Saudi shipment cancellations: Selected European refineries are receiving less Saudi crude for September. East-West pipeline shutdown: The 7 million-barrel-per-day system remains unavailable following infrastructure damage. Libyan production disruptions: The Hamada and Al-Tahara oilfields have been shut following pipeline blockades. Potential force majeure: Libya's National Oil Corporation has indicated that force majeure could be considered. Higher tanker costs: Limited tanker availability and rising freight rates are increasing the cost of moving Gulf crude. Russian fuel disruptions: Ongoing interruptions to Russian fuel production are adding another source of supply uncertainty. Kazakhstan maintenance: Planned maintenance could temporarily reduce additional supplies. Bearish Sentiment Despite the supply concerns, several factors could limit the upside in crude: Saudi export rerouting: Riyadh is attempting to increase shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. US naval escorts: US Navy escorts for merchant vessels could help maintain maritime flows through the region. Demand sensitivity: Oil prices above $100 can increase fuel costs and potentially weaken demand. Overbought technical conditions: The 14-day RSI has moved above 70, indicating that recent price momentum has entered traditionally overbought territory. Price consolidation: Crude has remained around $107 for several days rather than accelerating continuously higher. Saudi Arabia Faces a Critical Export Bottleneck The Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown has become one of the most important developments for the oil market. The pipeline normally provides a route that allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, making its loss strategically significant while regional tensions remain elevated. Saudi Arabia is now working to increase exports through the maritime corridor, but the alternative route is facing logistical constraints. Tanker availability has tightened significantly, while charter rates from Saudi ports to China reportedly exceeded $1 million at the end of last week. That combination means that even if crude remains physically available, the cost and complexity of transporting it to international buyers has increased. Libya Adds Another Layer of Supply Risk The situation in Libya is adding further pressure to the global supply picture. The state-owned National Oil Corporation has suspended production at the Hamada and Al-Tahara oilfields after protesters blocked pipelines. The NOC has also indicated that it could invoke force majeure if the disruption continues. For traders, the importance of the Libyan disruption is not simply the barrels removed from production. The broader concern is that several supply interruptions are occurring simultaneously, reducing the market's ability to absorb another unexpected outage. Oil Market FactorCurrent Market SignalBrent crude$107.39Brent daily move+0.9%WTI crude$103.51WTI daily move+1.17%Saudi East-West pipelineShut downPipeline capacityAround 7 million bpdEstimated repair time3–5 weeksSaudi September exportsSome shipments cancelledLibyaHamada and Al-Tahara production suspendedTanker marketLimited availability / higher freight ratesKazakhstanPlanned maintenanceRussian fuel productionOngoing disruptions14-day RSIAbove 70Key market tensionSupply disruption vs overbought conditions Strait of Hormuz Becomes Increasingly Important The disruption to Saudi Arabia's alternative export route is increasing the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is attempting to compensate by increasing exports through the waterway, while US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has announced that US Navy vessels are escorting merchant ships through the maritime corridor near Oman. The move could help maintain physical oil flows, but it does not eliminate the underlying logistical constraints. If tanker availability remains limited and freight costs stay elevated, buyers may have to pay significantly more to secure available cargoes. This creates a potentially bullish physical-market signal even if benchmark prices begin to consolidate. Technical Momentum Is Entering Overbought Territory The fundamental supply picture is strongly supportive of crude prices, but the technical structure is becoming more stretched. Oil has been trading around $107 a barrel for nearly three days, while the 14-day RSI has moved above 70. An RSI above 70 is traditionally interpreted as an overbought condition. It does not necessarily mean that prices must fall, particularly during a supply-driven rally, but it indicates that upward momentum has become extended. The current setup therefore creates an important divergence between strong physical-market fundamentals and stretched technical momentum. A sustained move above recent highs would indicate that buyers remain in control, while a failure to extend the rally could encourage profit-taking. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major signals for oil traders will include: Whether Saudi Arabia can successfully increase exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The timeline for repairing the East-West pipeline. Further cancellations of Saudi crude shipments to European buyers. Whether Libyan production remains suspended. Any declaration of force majeure by Libya's NOC. Tanker availability and freight-rate developments. Planned maintenance in Kazakhstan. Further disruptions to Russian fuel production. Whether Brent can sustain levels above $107. Whether the 14-day RSI remains above 70 or begins to signal fading momentum. Currency Hedger View For companies exposed to energy imports, the current oil-market environment creates a dual risk from higher crude prices and currency movements. A sustained increase in Brent can raise the cost of dollar-denominated energy purchases, while fluctuations in the US dollar can amplify or reduce the impact for businesses operating outside the United States. For importers, the combination of elevated oil prices and an unfavourable currency move can create significantly higher effective costs, making forward planning and hedging increasingly important. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Oil is being supported by an unusually concentrated cluster of supply risks. Saudi Arabia's pipeline shutdown and European shipment cancellations are occurring alongside Libyan production losses, Russian fuel disruptions and planned maintenance elsewhere. However, the technical picture is becoming more stretched, with crude holding around $107 and the 14-day RSI above 70. The market is therefore balancing genuine physical supply concerns against the risk of an overextended rally. “The oil market is facing a rare combination of supply disruptions across several producing regions, making the Saudi pipeline outage particularly significant. But with crude already around $107 and RSI entering overbought territory, the next phase could depend on whether physical shortages translate into further buying or simply encourage profit-taking.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Brent crude rose 0.9% to $107.39, while WTI gained 1.17% to $103.51 as Saudi and Libyan supply disruptions intensified concerns over global oil availability. The bullish case is centred on Saudi shipment cancellations, the East-West pipeline shutdown, Libyan production losses, higher tanker costs and continuing geopolitical supply risks. The bearish case is centred on Saudi Arabia's efforts to reroute exports through the Strait of Hormuz, US naval escorts supporting maritime flows, demand risks from elevated prices and technically overbought conditions. With Brent holding near $107 and the 14-day RSI above 70, the market is increasingly caught between tightening physical supply and the risk that the recent rally has become technically stretched. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com

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Cryptocurrencies

September 16, 2026

Bitcoin Slides Toward $75,000 as US Crypto Regulation Setback Hits Sentiment

Today Markets Analysis: Bitcoin fell toward $75,000 in mid-September, approaching a more than three-week low as investors reacted to the US Senate's failure to advance a major cryptocurrency regulation bill. The Clarity Act failed to clear a procedural vote, with the measure receiving 49 votes in favour and 50 against, below the 60 votes required to advance. The setback has increased uncertainty around the future US regulatory framework for digital assets, while Bitcoin is also facing pressure from a less supportive macroeconomic environment. With the Federal Reserve's policy decision due later today, traders are assessing whether monetary policy and liquidity conditions could add further pressure to speculative assets. Bitcoin Falls Toward $75,000 Bitcoin has weakened toward $75,000, extending its decline as investors reassess the regulatory outlook for the US cryptocurrency sector. The Senate setback is significant because the Clarity Act was designed to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, including a greater role for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in overseeing the sector. The failure to advance the legislation does not remove the possibility of future crypto regulation, but it leaves market participants facing greater uncertainty over the timing, structure and jurisdiction of future rules. That uncertainty can influence investment decisions by crypto businesses and institutions, particularly when combined with a tighter monetary environment. Bullish Sentiment Several factors could still provide support for Bitcoin. Long-term regulatory demand: The setback could increase pressure for policymakers to eventually establish clearer rules for digital assets. Institutional participation: Greater regulatory clarity remains a potential catalyst for institutional involvement once the framework becomes more defined. Limited supply: Bitcoin's fixed supply structure remains a longer-term fundamental feature supporting its investment case. Potential monetary-policy shift: Any indication that the Federal Reserve could become less restrictive in the future could improve liquidity conditions for risk assets. Price recovery potential: A stabilisation around the $75,000 area could encourage buyers to return if selling pressure begins to fade. Bearish Sentiment The immediate backdrop contains several factors weighing on Bitcoin. Crypto legislation setback: The Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act leaves regulatory uncertainty elevated. Tighter liquidity: Higher interest rates and restrictive monetary conditions can reduce demand for speculative assets. Fed uncertainty: The market is heavily focused on whether the Federal Reserve will maintain or reinforce a restrictive policy stance. Institutional caution: Regulatory uncertainty could delay investment decisions by institutions and crypto-related businesses. Recent price weakness: Bitcoin is trading near a more than three-week low, indicating that sellers currently have greater short-term influence. US Crypto Regulation Remains a Major Market Variable The Senate vote has brought regulation back into focus as a key Bitcoin market driver. The proposed Clarity Act was intended to provide greater definition around the regulatory treatment of digital assets and assign primary oversight of many assets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its failure to advance leaves the US crypto industry without the additional clarity investors had been anticipating. For businesses, the uncertainty could affect decisions involving investment, operations and the location of crypto-related activities. For institutional investors, the regulatory environment remains an important consideration alongside liquidity, custody, market structure and compliance requirements. Bitcoin Market FactorCurrent Market SignalBitcoin priceAround $75,000Recent trendMore than three-week lowClarity ActFailed to advanceSenate vote49-50Votes required60Proposed regulatorCommodity Futures Trading CommissionUS crypto frameworkGreater uncertaintyInterest ratesRestrictive backdropLiquidityLess supportive for speculative assetsKey market tensionRegulatory uncertainty vs potential monetary-policy support The Federal Reserve Becomes the Next Catalyst Bitcoin's regulatory setback comes just hours before the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. Markets are widely expecting the central bank to deliver its first rate hike in around three years, making the accompanying statement and forward guidance particularly important for cryptocurrencies. Higher rates generally make liquidity conditions less favourable for speculative assets, while a more restrictive policy outlook can increase the attractiveness of traditional yield-bearing assets relative to non-yielding investments. Conversely, any indication that the current tightening cycle is approaching its peak could improve sentiment across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Regulation and Liquidity Are Pulling Bitcoin in Opposite Directions Bitcoin is currently facing two distinct forces. The first is regulatory uncertainty, following the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act. The second is the broader macroeconomic environment, where higher rates and tighter liquidity are creating pressure across speculative markets. These forces are particularly important because regulatory clarity and institutional participation are closely connected. A more predictable framework could encourage greater participation over the longer term, while uncertainty can encourage investors to remain cautious. The Fed's decision therefore arrives at a critical point for Bitcoin sentiment. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus will be the Federal Reserve decision and its guidance on future interest rates. Traders will be watching: Whether the Fed delivers the expected rate increase. Whether policymakers signal another increase later this year. Changes in Treasury yields and broader liquidity conditions. Whether Bitcoin can stabilise around $75,000. Further developments surrounding US cryptocurrency regulation. Institutional reaction to the continuing regulatory uncertainty. A sustained break below the recent low could increase downside pressure, while a recovery above recent resistance would suggest that buyers are beginning to absorb the regulatory and macroeconomic risks. Currency Hedger View For businesses with exposure to Bitcoin and other dollar-denominated digital assets, the current environment highlights the interaction between cryptocurrency volatility, US monetary policy and currency risk. Changes in Federal Reserve expectations can affect both the dollar and broader risk appetite, potentially creating simultaneous movements in cryptocurrency and foreign-exchange markets. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Bitcoin is facing a combination of regulatory uncertainty and restrictive macroeconomic conditions. The Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act removes an anticipated source of regulatory clarity at a time when investors are already reassessing speculative assets ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. At the same time, the longer-term case for Bitcoin remains linked to institutional adoption, limited supply and the potential for more supportive liquidity conditions if the rate cycle eventually changes direction. “Bitcoin is being hit by a double layer of uncertainty: the regulatory framework in the US remains unresolved while tighter liquidity is reducing appetite for speculative assets. The Fed decision could determine whether the current decline develops into a deeper correction or attracts buyers back into the market.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Bitcoin has fallen toward $75,000, approaching a more than three-week low after the US Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act. The bullish case rests on the longer-term potential for clearer regulation, greater institutional participation and a future improvement in liquidity conditions. The bearish case centres on the immediate regulatory setback, tighter monetary conditions and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the Fed decision now approaching, Bitcoin's next major move is likely to depend on the interaction between regulatory developments and the direction of US monetary policy. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Forex Trading

September 16, 2026

Dollar Nears One-Month High as Fed Decision Takes Centre Stage

Today Markets Analysis: The US dollar index climbed toward 99.7 on Wednesday, approaching its highest level in a month as markets positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike remain firmly embedded in prices, with markets assigning roughly a 92% probability to the move. The focus is now shifting beyond the expected decision itself. Traders will be watching whether the Federal Reserve signals another increase later this year, while rising energy costs, elevated Treasury yields and growing fiscal concerns are adding another layer of uncertainty for the dollar. Dollar Strengthens Ahead of the Federal Reserve The dollar has gained momentum as investors prepare for what would be the Fed's first rate increase in around three years. With inflationary pressures still elevated, markets are looking for guidance on how aggressively policymakers intend to continue tightening monetary conditions. Expectations for another rate increase in October or December have also increased, providing additional support for the dollar. However, much of the immediate policy move is already priced into markets, meaning the Fed's communication could ultimately prove more important than the 25-basis-point increase itself. Bullish Sentiment Several factors are currently supporting the dollar. Fed hike expectations: Markets are pricing roughly a 92% probability of a 25bp increase. Potential further tightening: Expectations for another hike later this year are providing additional support. Higher Treasury yields: Rising US yields are increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. Inflation pressures: Higher energy costs could encourage the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Dollar momentum: The index is approaching its strongest level in around a month. Bearish Sentiment The dollar also faces several risks if the Federal Reserve delivers a less hawkish message than markets expect. Hawkish expectations are already priced: A rate hike alone may provide limited additional upside. Risk of no further hikes: If policymakers signal that the current increase could be sufficient, dollar positioning could unwind. Fiscal concerns: Growing concerns surrounding the US fiscal outlook could undermine confidence in Treasury assets. Elevated yields: A sharp rise in borrowing costs can eventually increase pressure on economic activity. Potentially sharp reversal: Analysts have warned that the dollar could weaken significantly if the Fed keeps rates unchanged or fails to signal additional increases. Treasury Yields Add to Dollar Momentum US Treasury yields are playing an increasingly important role in the dollar's advance. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Higher yields can support the dollar by increasing returns available on US fixed-income assets, although they also raise financing costs throughout the economy. The combination of elevated yields and higher energy prices therefore creates a complicated backdrop. The former can support the dollar, while the latter increases inflation risks and could keep pressure on consumers and businesses. Dollar Market FactorCurrent Market SignalDollar indexAround 99.7Recent trendNear one-month highFed hike probabilityAround 92%Expected move25bpFurther Fed hikeOctober or December expectationsUS 10-year yieldBriefly above 5%Yield levelHighest since 2007Energy costsRising — increasing inflation pressureFiscal concernsIncreasingKey market tensionFed tightening expectations vs policy repricing risk Energy Prices Complicate the Fed's Outlook Rising energy prices are becoming another important variable for the dollar. Higher oil and energy costs can feed into headline inflation, potentially giving the Federal Reserve another reason to maintain restrictive monetary policy. This supports the argument for further rate increases and can keep Treasury yields elevated. However, sustained energy inflation also threatens economic growth by increasing costs for households and businesses. If growth expectations deteriorate alongside higher borrowing costs, the dollar's reaction could become less straightforward. The Fed's Forward Guidance Is the Critical Catalyst The market reaction is likely to depend heavily on what policymakers say about the path beyond the current decision. A signal that another increase remains likely later this year could reinforce dollar strength and keep Treasury yields elevated. Conversely, if policymakers indicate that the current move may be sufficient, traders could reduce expectations for additional tightening. That distinction is particularly important because the 92% probability of a 25bp hike means the actual decision itself is unlikely to be a major surprise. What Traders Are Watching Next The main focus is the Federal Reserve's rate decision and accompanying guidance. Traders will assess: Whether the Fed delivers the widely expected 25bp increase. Whether policymakers maintain expectations for another hike this year. The direction of US Treasury yields following the decision. How the Fed assesses rising energy-related inflation. Whether fiscal concerns begin to influence demand for US assets. Whether the dollar can sustain its move toward the 99.7 area or experiences a post-decision reversal. Currency Hedger View For companies with significant USD exposure, the current environment highlights the importance of managing currency risk around major central-bank events. A stronger dollar can increase the domestic-currency cost of US-denominated imports, while businesses receiving dollar revenues may experience the opposite effect. The combination of elevated yields, energy prices and changing Fed expectations also creates the potential for increased currency volatility around policy announcements. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View The dollar is entering the Federal Reserve decision with positive momentum, but the next move may depend more on forward guidance than the rate decision itself. A 25bp hike is already heavily anticipated, while another increase later this year remains an important source of dollar support. At the same time, the dollar could face a sharp reversal if policymakers signal that further tightening is no longer necessary. “The dollar has entered the Fed decision with a strong tailwind from higher Treasury yields and expectations of further tightening, but the market has already priced in much of the immediate move. The real test will be whether policymakers provide enough guidance to justify another leg higher.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line The dollar index has climbed toward 99.7, supported by expectations of a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike and rising US Treasury yields. The bullish case for the dollar is centred on continued Fed tightening, elevated inflation pressures and higher yields. The bearish case rests on the possibility that the Fed does not signal further rate increases, alongside growing fiscal concerns and the economic pressure created by elevated borrowing costs. With the rate decision largely anticipated, the Fed's guidance on future policy is likely to determine whether the dollar extends its advance or undergoes a post-decision reversal. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Energies

September 16, 2026

European Gas Climbs Above €81 as Winter Supply Risks Intensify

Today Markets Analysis: European natural gas prices climbed back above €81/MWh on Wednesday, reversing the previous session’s decline as concerns over winter supply security continue to build. With the heating season approaching, traders are increasingly focused on the combination of restricted LNG flows, below-average European storage and temporary reductions in Norwegian pipeline supplies. The market is facing a tightening supply picture at a time when Europe normally seeks to enter winter with inventories close to maximum levels. European Gas Rebounds as Supply Concerns Return European gas prices have moved back toward levels last associated with the severe energy disruption of previous years, with the latest advance reflecting renewed concern over the availability of supply. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely inaccessible to commercial shipping, severely restricting Qatari LNG flows. Qatar is a major LNG supplier, making prolonged disruption particularly significant for European buyers competing for alternative cargoes. At the same time, European storage is around 68% full, leaving the region with less of a buffer than would normally be expected ahead of winter. Bullish Sentiment Several factors are supporting higher European gas prices. Restricted Qatari LNG: Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is limiting LNG exports available to Europe. Storage below seasonal norms: Inventories at around 68% remain below the level typically expected at this stage of the year. Winter demand risk: Colder weather could quickly increase demand for heating and accelerate withdrawals from storage. Norwegian maintenance: Scheduled maintenance is temporarily reducing pipeline flows into Europe. Competition for LNG: Prolonged supply disruptions could force Europe to compete more aggressively for available global LNG cargoes. Bearish Sentiment There are also factors that could limit the upside if supply conditions improve. Storage is still substantial: At around 68%, Europe retains a sizeable volume of gas in reserve. Temporary Norwegian disruption: Maintenance-related reductions in pipeline flows are scheduled rather than necessarily permanent. Demand uncertainty: Mild winter weather would reduce heating demand and could ease pressure on inventories. Price-driven LNG competition: Higher European prices could attract additional flexible LNG cargoes if shipping routes and supply availability normalise. Previous-session decline: The latest rebound follows a drop in the prior session, showing that the market remains volatile rather than moving in a straight line. Qatari LNG Becomes a Critical Supply Variable The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is particularly important for European gas because it restricts access to Qatari LNG. If the disruption persists, European buyers may have to compete with Asian markets for alternative cargoes. That could increase both the cost of securing supply and the sensitivity of European gas prices to developments in global LNG markets. A restoration of normal shipping conditions, however, could quickly reduce some of the current supply premium. European Storage Enters Winter in a Vulnerable Position Storage levels are another major focus. European facilities are around 68% full, which provides an important buffer but remains below the seasonal average. The significance is greater because inventories would normally be approaching their seasonal peak before winter demand accelerates. JERA Global CEO Yukio Kani has warned that Europe's relatively low inventories could leave the region exposed to prolonged supply disruptions and increased competition for LNG cargoes. European Gas FactorCurrent Market SignalGas priceAbove €81/MWhRecent moveRebound after previous-session declineEuropean storageAround 68% fullSeasonal positionBelow averageQatari LNGSeverely restrictedStrait of HormuzCommercial shipping largely inaccessibleNorwegian supplyTemporarily reduced by maintenanceWinter riskHigher vulnerability to prolonged disruptionKey market tensionSupply security vs available inventories Norwegian Maintenance Adds Near-Term Pressure Norway remains an important source of pipeline gas for Europe, meaning scheduled maintenance can have an outsized short-term impact when the wider market is already concerned about supply. The temporary reduction in Norwegian flows comes at an awkward time for European buyers, adding another layer of supply tightness while Qatari LNG availability remains constrained. The duration of these maintenance disruptions will therefore be closely monitored by traders. What Traders Are Watching Next The market will be watching European storage levels, Norwegian pipeline flows, LNG availability and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Weather forecasts will also become increasingly important as winter approaches. A colder-than-normal winter could accelerate withdrawals and expose the region's relatively limited storage cushion, while mild conditions could reduce demand and ease some of the current supply pressure. The key question is whether current disruptions prove temporary or develop into a prolonged global LNG supply squeeze. Currency Hedger View European gas prices have important implications for businesses with significant EUR exposure, particularly energy-intensive companies facing uncertain input costs. Sharp changes in gas prices can influence inflation expectations, European interest-rate expectations and ultimately the euro. For businesses with cross-border energy payments, monitoring both commodity prices and EUR currency exposure can therefore become increasingly important as winter approaches. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View European gas prices are being supported by a combination of restricted LNG availability, below-average storage and temporary Norwegian supply reductions. The market nevertheless retains some downside protection if shipping conditions normalise, maintenance ends or winter demand proves weaker than feared. The balance between those forces is likely to determine whether prices merely remain elevated or move substantially higher as the heating season approaches. “Europe is entering the critical winter preparation period with less storage flexibility than usual, while global LNG availability is being constrained. The longer these supply disruptions persist, the greater the premium traders may demand for winter security.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line European natural gas has climbed back above €81/MWh as traders reassess winter supply risks. The bullish case centres on restricted Qatari LNG, below-average storage, Norwegian maintenance and the possibility of stronger winter demand. The bearish case rests on existing inventory levels, the potentially temporary nature of some supply disruptions and the possibility of additional LNG availability if global shipping conditions improve. For now, the market remains highly sensitive to developments affecting Europe's ability to secure sufficient gas before winter demand accelerates. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Energies

September 16, 2026

Oil Retreats Below $105 as US Inventory Build Offsets Middle East Supply Risks

Today Markets Analysis: Crude oil has fallen back below $105 per barrel, retreating from four-month highs after US industry data showed a surprisingly large increase in crude inventories despite worsening supply disruptions across the Middle East. The pullback highlights the growing tension between a bearish US inventory signal and an increasingly fragile global supply picture. API data showed US crude stockpiles rising by 7.14 million barrels last week, sharply reversing the previous week’s 300,000-barrel decline and challenging expectations for another drawdown. At the same time, disruptions around Saudi Arabia and Libya continue to keep the physical supply outlook uncertain, limiting the downside pressure created by the inventory build. Oil Pulls Back From Four-Month Highs Crude oil has retreated below $105, with the unexpected increase in US inventories triggering profit-taking after the recent rally. The 7.14 million-barrel increase reported by the API was significantly different from expectations for another decline in stockpiles. The build suggests that near-term US supply conditions may be less constrained than the broader geopolitical picture implies. However, the inventory data comes against a backdrop of significant Middle East disruption, meaning traders remain focused on whether the US stockpile increase represents a temporary development or the beginning of a more meaningful easing in the physical oil market. Bullish Sentiment The bullish case for oil remains closely linked to global supply risks: Saudi oil loadings at Yanbu port remain suspended. The crucial East-West pipeline remains shut with no clear restart timeline. The pipeline provides an alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz, increasing its importance during regional disruption. Iran-backed Houthi militants have renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia. Libya has suspended operations at two oilfields and a pumping station. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to create the possibility of further supply interruptions. If disruptions persist or expand, the physical supply deficit could outweigh the bearish impact of higher US inventories. Bearish Sentiment The clearest bearish signal comes from the US inventory data. API figures showed crude stockpiles increasing by 7.14 million barrels, following a 300,000-barrel decline the previous week. That result challenges expectations for tighter US inventories and could indicate that domestic supply is currently sufficient to absorb some of the disruption elsewhere. A sustained build in US inventories would weaken the argument for an immediate supply shortage and could encourage further profit-taking after oil’s sharp advance. The other major risk is that geopolitical disruptions fail to translate into a significant reduction in global production or exports. Saudi Supply Disruptions Remain Critical The situation around Saudi Arabia remains one of the most important factors for the oil market. Oil loadings at Yanbu port remain suspended following the shutdown of the East-West pipeline, which normally provides an alternative transportation route around the Strait of Hormuz. There is currently no clear timeline for when the pipeline will resume operations. With renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia, traders must therefore consider the possibility that the disruption could persist longer than initially expected. Any further deterioration in Saudi infrastructure or export capacity would strengthen the bullish supply-risk argument. Libya Adds Another Supply Risk Libya has also introduced another layer of uncertainty after the national oil company suspended operations at two oilfields and a pumping station amid ongoing protests. However, the impact on total Libyan supply remains relatively limited so far, with overall production reported at approximately 1.4 million barrels per day. This means the Libyan disruptions are important for market risk but have not yet produced the same scale of supply concern as the Saudi pipeline disruption. The key question is whether the protests remain contained or spread to additional production infrastructure. Oil Is Now Balancing Inventory and Geopolitical Risk The current oil market is being pulled in two different directions. The US inventory increase represents a clear bearish signal, suggesting that available crude supplies may be more comfortable than expected. Meanwhile, Middle East disruptions are generating a bullish geopolitical risk premium, particularly because the Saudi East-West pipeline provides an important alternative export route when the Strait of Hormuz faces heightened risk. Oil Market FactorCurrent SignalOil priceBelow $105Recent trendPullback from four-month highsUS crude inventories+7.14 million barrelsPrevious US inventory change-300,000 barrelsYanbu loadingsSuspendedSaudi East-West pipelineShutdownHouthi attacksRenewedLibyaTwo oilfields and pumping station suspendedLibya outputAround 1.4 million barrels per dayOverall marketSupply risks vs inventory pressure What Traders Are Watching Next The next major focus will be whether the API inventory build is confirmed by official US inventory data and whether subsequent reports show continued accumulation. Traders will also closely monitor the Saudi East-West pipeline and Yanbu export operations for signs of either further disruption or a return toward normal operations. Developments involving Houthi attacks will remain particularly important because additional damage to Saudi infrastructure could quickly increase the market’s geopolitical risk premium. In Libya, the market will be watching whether protests spread to other production facilities or remain contained. Currency Hedger View Oil’s latest move also highlights the relationship between energy prices, inflation expectations and currency markets. A sustained oil rally can increase inflationary pressure and influence expectations for central-bank policy, while a sharp reversal in energy prices can have the opposite effect. For businesses exposed to energy costs or international currency movements, the interaction between commodity prices and foreign exchange can therefore become increasingly important. Currency Hedger, part of the Octalas Group, specialises in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging, providing market perspective on the relationship between commodities, currencies and international business exposure. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Today Markets View Oil’s retreat below $105 reflects the first meaningful challenge to the recent rally, with the unexpectedly large US inventory build encouraging profit-taking. However, the broader supply picture remains fragile. Saudi pipeline and export disruptions, renewed attacks and the additional uncertainty in Libya mean the inventory data has not removed the geopolitical risk premium from the market. The near-term direction will therefore depend on whether US inventories continue to build or whether Middle East supply disruptions begin producing a more substantial reduction in available global supply. “The oil market is being pulled between a surprisingly large US inventory build and an increasingly fragile Middle East supply picture. The next move will depend on which signal ultimately proves more persistent.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Crude oil has pulled back below $105 per barrel as the sharp increase in US inventories offsets some of the bullish momentum created by Middle East supply disruptions. The 7.14 million-barrel US inventory build is a clear bearish signal, but the suspension of Saudi oil loadings and continued regional attacks keep the possibility of further supply disruption firmly in focus. For traders, the key issue is whether the US inventory build develops into a sustained trend or is overwhelmed by continued geopolitical pressure on global supply. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com

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Markets

September 16, 2026

Palladium Rebounds as Dollar Weakness and Supply Risks Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis: Palladium has rebounded toward $1,320 per ounce, recovering from a three-week low as a softer US dollar and renewed short covering provide support ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The recovery comes alongside broader gains across precious metals, with markets pricing a 92.4% probability of at least a 25-basis-point rate hike. Fluctuations in Treasury yields have also encouraged buying of dollar-denominated commodities, while stretched bearish positioning following recent losses has increased the potential for further short covering. At the same time, palladium continues to face important supply-side risks, particularly in South Africa, while trade and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russian palladium remain an additional source of market support. Palladium Attempts to Stabilise Above $1,300 Palladium has moved higher after touching a three-week low, with prices returning toward the $1,320 area. The softer US dollar has helped improve the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, while movements in Treasury yields have added another layer of volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. The rebound also appears to have been amplified by short covering. Following recent losses, bearish positioning had become increasingly stretched, creating conditions for traders to close short positions as palladium stabilised. Bullish Sentiment Several factors are currently supporting palladium: A softer US dollar is improving conditions for dollar-denominated commodities. Short covering is providing additional buying pressure after recent losses. Broader strength across precious metals is supporting palladium sentiment. Supply vulnerabilities in South Africa remain a concern for future mine output. Elevated operating costs and power-grid instability could constrain South African production. Trade and geopolitical risks involving Russian palladium continue to create uncertainty around supply. If the dollar remains under pressure and supply concerns intensify, palladium could retain its recovery momentum. Bearish Sentiment Despite the rebound, palladium continues to face several downside risks. The Federal Reserve remains central to the near-term outlook. Although markets are pricing a high probability of a 25bp rate hike, a more hawkish policy signal could push Treasury yields and the US dollar higher. A stronger dollar would potentially reduce demand for dollar-denominated commodities and could reverse some of the recent buying. Palladium also remains vulnerable to profit-taking if the current short-covering move loses momentum, particularly given the metal’s recent decline. South African Supply Remains a Key Risk South Africa remains one of the most important supply-side factors for palladium. Elevated operating costs and ongoing instability within the country’s power grid continue to create concerns around mine production. Any deterioration in operating conditions could tighten the physical supply outlook and provide additional support to prices. However, supply concerns need to be balanced against the possibility that weaker industrial demand could limit the impact of production disruptions on prices. Russian Palladium Adds Geopolitical Risk Trade and geopolitical risks surrounding Russian palladium remain another important factor for the market. Russia is a major source of palladium supply, meaning restrictions, trade disruptions or changes in international access to Russian material could affect the global supply balance. This creates an additional risk premium, although the precise impact on prices will depend on whether geopolitical developments translate into actual restrictions or physical supply disruptions. Federal Reserve Decision Could Set the Next Direction The Federal Reserve decision is likely to be the immediate catalyst for palladium. Markets are pricing a 92.4% chance of at least a 25bp rate hike, meaning much of the expected policy move is already reflected in prices. The greater market reaction could therefore come from the Fed’s forward guidance and its assessment of future rate decisions. A more hawkish message could strengthen yields and the dollar, creating pressure on palladium. Conversely, if the market interprets the decision as less restrictive than expected, the dollar and yields could lose momentum, potentially extending the recovery in precious metals. Key Palladium Drivers FactorCurrent Market SignalPalladium priceAround $1,320Recent trendRebounding from a three-week lowUS dollarSofter — supportiveShort positioningStretched — supporting short coveringTreasury yieldsVolatile ahead of Fed decisionFederal Reserve25bp hike largely pricedSouth African supplyOperating and power-grid risksRussian palladiumTrade and geopolitical uncertaintyPrecious metalsBroader gains supporting sentiment What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus will remain on the Federal Reserve and the reaction across the US dollar and Treasury yields. Traders will also monitor whether the recent short-covering rally develops into sustained buying or simply represents a temporary rebound following the three-week decline. On the supply side, developments affecting South African mine production and Russian palladium trade flows will remain important. A combination of a weaker dollar, contained yields and persistent supply concerns could keep the recovery supported, while renewed dollar strength and higher yields could put palladium back under pressure. Currency Hedger View For currency-sensitive commodity markets, palladium’s current rebound highlights the importance of movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields. A weaker dollar can provide support for dollar-denominated commodities, while renewed dollar strength can have the opposite effect. This makes the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance particularly relevant for traders and businesses managing commodity exposure and currency risk. Currency Hedger, part of the Octalas Group, specialises in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging, providing additional market perspective on the relationship between currency movements and commodity prices. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Today Markets View Palladium’s move back toward $1,320 represents an attempt to stabilise following a three-week decline, with the softer dollar and short covering providing immediate support. The bullish case is strengthened by supply vulnerabilities in South Africa and continued geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russian palladium. However, the recovery remains vulnerable to a renewed rise in Treasury yields and the US dollar if the Federal Reserve delivers a more hawkish policy signal. The key question is therefore whether the current rebound develops into a broader reversal or remains primarily a short-covering recovery. “Palladium is benefiting from a softer dollar, short covering and persistent supply risks, but the Federal Reserve’s guidance could determine whether this rebound develops into a broader recovery or fades as quickly as it began.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Palladium has recovered toward $1,320 after reaching a three-week low, with dollar weakness and short covering helping to stabilise prices. Supply concerns in South Africa and geopolitical risks surrounding Russian palladium provide an additional supportive backdrop, but the outlook remains highly sensitive to the direction of the US dollar and Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve decision and subsequent market reaction could therefore provide the next major directional signal for palladium. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com

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Markets

September 16, 2026

Gold Reclaims $4,300 as Yield Momentum Fades

Today Markets Analysis: Gold has climbed back above $4,300 an ounce, recovering after two consecutive sessions of losses as the recent momentum in oil prices and global bond yields began to fade ahead of the latest US Federal Reserve policy decision. The move higher comes as markets reassess the competing forces driving bullion. Lower momentum in oil and bond yields is providing some relief for gold, while continued Middle East supply disruptions are keeping geopolitical risk elevated. At the same time, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate move remain a major source of uncertainty. Gold Recovers Above $4,300 Gold has regained the $4,300 level after falling for two consecutive sessions, with the moderation in bond yields helping to reduce some of the pressure on the non-yielding precious metal. The pullback in oil prices is also significant. US crude inventories unexpectedly increased, prompting oil prices to retreat from their recent multi-month highs. However, the decline in crude has been limited by continuing supply disruptions linked to the Middle East. This leaves energy markets vulnerable to further volatility and keeps inflation expectations in focus. Bullish Sentiment The immediate backdrop for gold has become more supportive. The recent rise in global bond yields has lost momentum, reducing the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets compared with gold. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and ongoing disruptions to energy supplies continue to support demand for traditional safe-haven assets. A sustained moderation in oil prices could also ease concerns about another inflationary shock, potentially reducing pressure on central banks to maintain aggressive monetary tightening. If yields remain contained while geopolitical uncertainty persists, gold could continue to attract defensive demand. Bearish Sentiment The major downside risk remains the global interest-rate outlook. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with investors focusing less on the widely anticipated move itself and more on what policymakers signal about future rate increases. Expectations are building around another possible hike later in the year, potentially in October or December. A more hawkish Fed could push Treasury yields and the US dollar higher, creating renewed headwinds for gold. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise borrowing costs this week, while the Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged. Diverging monetary-policy paths could create additional volatility across currencies and bond markets, indirectly affecting precious metals. Oil Remains a Key Inflation Signal Oil remains an important part of the gold equation. Crude prices have recently been supported by supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, raising concerns that higher energy costs could feed back into inflation. The unexpected increase in US crude inventories has now provided some relief, but the broader supply situation remains uncertain. For gold, the key issue is whether the recent oil strength develops into a renewed inflationary impulse or whether the inventory increase marks the beginning of a more sustained easing in energy prices. Central Banks Take Centre Stage This week's central-bank decisions could determine whether gold's recovery develops further. The Federal Reserve remains the primary focus for global markets, particularly because US interest rates and Treasury yields have a direct influence on the opportunity cost of holding gold. The Bank of Japan's expected rate increase could also influence global bond markets and currency flows, while the Bank of England's decision to hold rates steady would provide another indication of how major economies are responding to persistent inflationary pressures. The combination creates a potentially volatile environment for precious metals. Key Gold Drivers FactorCurrent Impact on GoldGold priceAbove $4,300Bond yieldsRecent rise losing momentum — supportiveOil pricesPulling back from multi-month highsMiddle East tensionsSafe-haven supportUS crude inventoriesUnexpected increase — potentially easing inflation pressureFederal ReserveExpected 25bp rate hikeFuture Fed policyFurther hikes remain a downside riskBoJExpected to raise ratesBoEExpected to hold rates What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus is the Federal Reserve's policy decision and accompanying guidance. A signal that rates could remain higher for longer would likely keep pressure on gold through higher yields and dollar strength. Conversely, if policymakers indicate that the current tightening cycle is approaching its later stages, gold could receive additional support as investors reassess the future path of real yields. Oil prices will also remain important. A renewed surge in crude caused by further Middle East supply disruptions could revive inflation concerns, while continued weakness in oil would reduce one of the current sources of inflationary pressure. Today Markets View Gold's recovery above $4,300 comes at an important point for the precious-metal market. The recent loss of momentum in oil prices and bond yields has created a more supportive environment for bullion, while geopolitical tensions continue to provide a safe-haven argument. However, the recovery is not without risks. The Federal Reserve's expected 25-basis-point rate increase and its guidance on future policy remain the biggest potential source of renewed pressure. If markets interpret the Fed as preparing for another hike later this year, yields and the dollar could strengthen and limit gold's upside. For now, the market is balancing bullish safe-haven demand and softer yield momentum against the bearish impact of potentially higher interest rates. The next significant move in gold is therefore likely to depend less on the expected rate decision itself and more on what central banks say about the path ahead. “Gold is benefiting from the loss of momentum in yields and continued geopolitical uncertainty, but the Fed's guidance could determine whether the recovery above $4,300 develops into a sustained move.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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September 15, 2026

FOMC Preview – Will Trump dissuade Fed from a rate hike?

We are facing the most anticipated central bank meeting of 2026. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates. The market currently seems almost convinced that the statement, scheduled for release at 7:00 PM, will mention a 25 basis point rate increase, the first since July 2023. What does the data say? The rise in bets on a rate hike has been very dynamic in recent days, which appears somewhat surprising given that fundamentals have largely remained unchanged. Figure 1: Change in Market-Implied Probability of the September Fed Rate Hike (2025 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026 Last week's inflation reading, which according to Christopher Waller was supposed to tip the scales one way or another, did not provide a definitive answer, showing a decline in core inflation to 2.4% year-on-year. Markets focused on the slightly higher-than-expected monthly rise (0.3%), though in our view this is insufficient to prove the necessity of a rate hike. Figure 2: CPI Inflation in the United States (2026 - 2027) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026 Arguments for monetary tightening can be found in elevated services sector inflation (3.1%), but here too momentum is not overly concerning. According to the Fed Wage Growth Tracker, wage growth is accelerating (4.1% in August), which could stimulate consumption in the coming months, though current levels (less than 1% in real terms) do not seem poised to fundamentally alter the outlook. This is particularly true given that American consumer spending in recent months (and indeed quarters) has relied heavily on dwindling savings that will sooner or later need to be rebuilt. This does not mean, of course, that a rate increase is unwarranted or macroeconomically irrational. It can be justified in many ways. A key factor that could explain an upward move is the tight situation in energy commodity markets. High prices for crude oil and LNG have not yet spilled over into the broader US economy to a significant degree, but an intensification of this process in the coming months cannot be ruled out. The Fed could certainly opt for a hike as a form of front-loading, acting proactively to prevent the potential need for much sharper tightening in the future. If the Fed indeed decides on such a move on Wednesday, it may raise questions as to why it did not hike in July, as macroeconomic data published since then have offered little additional support for the tightening thesis. Front-loading was, in fact, the argument presented at the time by policymakers who broke consensus and voted for a hike. Figure 3: Brent and WTI Crude Oil Prices (2026) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026 The decision will be perceived as politicised under any scenario From a macroeconomic perspective, the decision can be viewed through various lenses across a broad range of data. However, the discourse surrounding the meeting, inflamed by recent comments from President Trump and the White House's chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, means that under any scenario the move will be seen as politicised. Crucial in this context, of course, are the upcoming mid-term elections. Although Hassett stressed that President Trump "100% respects Warsh's independence" and gives him "100% support", he also noted that the President would not be "very happy" if a rate hike actually occurred. Markets remember well the pressure faced during the final months of his term by former Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who in Trump's view kept interest rates insufficiently low. It is also impossible to ignore the context surrounding Lisa Cook, who was "fired" by President Trump. Quotation marks are deliberate here: the ruling was later overturned by the Supreme Court, and Cook remains an FOMC member participating in Wednesday's deliberations. If a rate hike does happen, as many indicators currently suggest, we can expect another tirade from the US President. An intriguing question is how Warsh himself would be treated by Trump. It is worth recalling that despite his hawkish past (during his tenure on the FOMC from 2006 to 2011, he advocated for higher interest rates despite the Global Financial Crisis), Warsh often signalled support for rate cuts before taking office. Just over a year ago, he openly aligned himself with the President, stating on FOX News that Trump's frustration with Powell's handling of monetary policy was fully justified. At the time, he criticized the institution for reducing rates too slowly and relying excessively on backward-looking economic data. For the Fed and Warsh himself, raising rates is the lesser of two evils A pause could be interpreted by markets as the Fed caving to pressure from Donald Trump, signalling a loss of independence for the world's most critical financial institution. This would result in a further rise in long-term bond yields (with 10-year Treasury yields reaching their highest level since 2007 today) and a revival of the debasement trade, a strategy involving a shift away from fiat currencies towards hard assets with limited supply, such as precious metals and Bitcoin. Figure 4: US 10-Year Treasury Yields (2006 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026 A rate hike does not necessarily mean a stronger dollar Raising rates does not automatically guarantee an appreciation of the American currency. Given that such a move is almost fully priced in, a relatively hawkish and, above all, credible narrative is also required. If Warsh, as in July, fails to convince the markets, bets on further rate hikes could fall, putting pressure on the US dollar. Figure 5: Market-Implied Fed Rate Path (2026 - 2027) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026 This seems plausible. The hawkish repricing seen recently was, in our view, overly aggressive. We do not expect the market baseline scenario of four Fed rate hikes before the end of the first half of 2027 to actually materialise. A retreat in rate hike expectations would naturally not be good news for the dollar. Figure 6: Major Currency Performance Against the US Dollar (01.09.2026 - 15.09.2026) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026

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Markets

September 15, 2026

Cocoa slips 3% and test important technical support zone

ICE cocoa futures (COCOA) are down around 3% today as the market once again focuses on improving near-term physical availability and elevated inventories. Pressure on prices is being reinforced by strong cocoa arrivals at ports in Côte d’Ivoire and ICE-monitored inventories remaining at relatively high levels. This is easing concerns about immediate supply shortages ahead of the main crop harvest. Major processors are currently signaling sufficient cocoa availability in the global market, while chocolate manufacturers have rebuilt part of their inventories, reducing the urgency for spot purchases. Today’s decline may also partly reflect profit-taking following the earlier price rebound and a reduction in long positions by funds. Supply-side risks have not disappeared. The market continues to monitor crop diseases, excessive rainfall and plantation conditions across West Africa, particularly in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. For now, investors appear to be placing greater emphasis on high inventories and the current availability of physical cocoa than on potential supply problems in the coming months. The contract has pulled back today toward the lower boundary of the ascending price channel. If the $5,700-$6,000 area fails to hold, this could trigger a bearish impulse toward $5,000 per tonne. The $6,050-$6,200 zone now represents an important resistance area. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 15, 2026

Gold loses ahead of Fed decision

Gold breaks important support levels a day ahead of the Fed decision, during which the market is largely confident of an interest rate hike Gold is down about 0.75% today, pulling back toward $4,266 per ounce on the eve of the Federal Reserve decision. Short-term investors fear position reductions in gold due to sharply rising yields. On the other hand, in the long term, gold is more indifferent to interest rates, but correlates more with long-term inflation and may respond to rising fiscal risks in the US. In the context of the upcoming Wednesday, key will be not only the Fed decision itself, but the projections (dot plot) and the tone of the press conference. It may turn out that Kevin Warsh decides to hike rates, but sends a message indicating that this is merely an adjustment move. On the other hand, there is a possibility of emphasizing his desire to fight inflation, but at the same time a scenario without a rate hike cannot be ruled out. The market is certain of a rate hike on Wednesday, and is pricing in over 3 hikes by June 2027. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The backdrop is complicated by rising oil prices. Higher commodity prices boost inflation expectations, which traditionally supports gold as a hedge, but simultaneously increases the prospect of Fed rate hikes, which is killer for gold in the short term. Today, the market is pricing in the second interpretation: more expensive oil works against the metal, not in its favor. However, it is worth paying attention to the aspect regarding further reserve diversification by central banks. China has clearly increased its gold purchases in recent months, buying 20 tons of gold for the second consecutive month, representing up to 10% of quarterly demand from all central banks. PBOC significantly increases gold purchases. Source: WGC Technical analysis Gold prices recently broke two important structures at once: an ascending trendline drawn along the lows from late July and early August, and a horizontal support zone in the $4,310–4,330 range, which coincides with the SMA100 (4,327) and constitutes a potential neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern. This is the first clear signal of weakening bullish momentum since the start of the August rally. The price is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upward wave ($4,266) and the SMA50 (4,274), which was breached to the downside. Remaining below this zone at the session close would open the door toward $4,158 (78.6%), and in an extreme scenario to the psychological barrier of $4,000, where a full retracement of the move lies. For the bulls, the minimum task is a return above 4,330. Only reclaiming 4,437 (SMA25) and the 4,500 zone would invalidate the current bear market signal and restore the scenario for an attack on the highs near 4,692. It is worth noting that the price remains clearly below the SMA200 (4,548), which keeps the initiative on the supply side in the medium term. The chart structure indicates that the Fed decision will be the decisive catalyst. Current levels are a sensitive point from which the market will make a move in one direction or the other. It is also worth noting the strong correlation with the EURUSD pair. If the wind stops blowing into the dollar's sails, it could also be an important signal for gold. Source: xStation5 High correlation between gold and EURUSD. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

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Energies

September 15, 2026

Commodity Talk – Natgas, Coffee, Oil, Gold

Commodity Overview The current session in the commodity market brings a marked strengthening of the energy sector, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. WTI crude oil is up 1.90% today, continuing a strong weekly rally of +7.34%, which places both WTI (+1.89σ) and Brent (+1.93σ) at extremely high levels relative to their 5-year averages. These sharp surges, driving Brent crude prices toward USD 108, are a direct response to drone attacks on Saudi transmission infrastructure and unrest in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising justified concerns over global supply stability. In the agricultural commodities and metals segments, we observe a more mixed market picture. The leader in daily gains during yesterday's session was orange juice (+6.01%), while lean hogs lost the most yesterday (-3.35%), and today zinc holds the second place in declines (-1.61%). Zinc's weekly discount of 7.66% stems from persistently weak domestic demand in China, although over the long term this metal, similar to copper (+2.46σ), remains historically expensive. In the near term, Fed interest rate decisions and news from the Middle East will be crucial for markets, directly determining the further valuation of strategic commodities, including gold (+1.54σ), which remains at high levels. It is worth noting the low RSI on the part of coffee, gold, and nickel, while at the same time an extremely high level is found on oil and European gas. Source: XTB Natgas The natural gas market exhibits significant geographic divergence between Europe and North America. European natural gas quotes (NATGAS.EU) as of September 15, 2026, stand at 83 EUR/MWh, showing a powerful upward momentum (+32.26% m/m and +186.42% YTD), fueled by concerns over the stability of seaborne LNG supplies. In turn, American natural gas (NATGAS) is valued at 2.878 USD/MMBtu (+6.71% m/m, but -20.98% YTD), remaining in broad consolidation. In terms of technical indicators, NATGAS.EU is in a strong uptrend (RSI at 77 signals strong overbought conditions and proximity to resistance at 85.00), while American NATGAS shows neutral-to-bearish signals with an RSI of 48, key resistance in the 3.00 USD region, and support at 2.75 USD. European Natgas is already trading around 83 EUR/MWh, approaching resistance associated with the 127.2 Fibonacci retracement of the March-April downward wave. Source: xStation5 Fundamental and Market Context Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of shipping disruptions at strategic chokepoints (including the Strait of Hormuz) are increasing the risk premium across the global energy market and threatening the continuity of LNG supplies to Europe and Asia. Chinese refiners are shifting away from depleting their own energy reserves toward an active return to spot market purchases, paying high premiums for cargoes, which intensifies direct price competition for available LNG volumes with European buyers. Local seasonal preparations for the winter period in the Northern Hemisphere are forcing European importers to maintain a high rate of storage injection, even at record spot prices. The rise in 10-year US Treasury yields above 5% and a strong US dollar elevate financing and gas inventory holding costs, curbing upward price momentum in the US market. The latest EIA gas storage report showed a larger-than-expected build, demonstrating that we are exiting the cooling season, while the current El Niño should delay the start of the heating season, potentially driving US gas inventories toward 5-year highs. On the other hand, structural long-term trends, including AI technology developments and growing data center electricity demand, sustain natural gas demand as a transition fuel in the energy sector. Storage gas levels in Europe currently stand at 68%, compared to a 5-year average of 84%. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The number of short positions on American NATGAS has risen quite significantly to extremely high levels, similar to 2017, 2020, 2021, and 2024. However, this did not always generate a bullish signal. Nevertheless, net positioning currently resides in deeply oversold territory. Source: XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score indicators reflect a clear divergence in valuation between the two gas markets. For European NATGAS.EU, the one-year Z1Y score reaches +2.94, Z2Y stands at +3.88, and the 5-year Z5Y has risen in recent months from -0.40 to +0.47, signaling strong market overheating and a growing geopolitical risk premium. Conversely, for American NATGAS, the indicators point to continued undervaluation: Z1Y stands at -0.72, Z2Y at -0.90, and Z5Y sits at -0.48 (following a gradual recovery from -0.61 recorded a month ago). This implies that the European gas market carries a high risk of a downside correction in the event of de-escalation, whereas the American market has limited room for further declines and a greater potential for an asymmetric rebound. Recently, an overbought signal appeared relative to the 1-year and 2-year moving averages. In the past, such signals offered good prospects over a one-month period. Source: XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Further escalation of Middle East tensions and disruptions in maritime LNG transit, combined with China's aggressive return to spot purchases and cold weather forecasts ahead of winter, will drive upward waves in both markets. Breaking resistance at 85.00 EUR/MWh on NATGAS.EU will open the path toward 90.00–98.50 EUR/MWh, while a sustained return of American NATGAS above 3.00 USD will unlock room to test the 3.15–3.30 USD levels. Bearish Scenario: De-escalation of conflicts, stabilization of LNG transport routes, and higher-than-expected inventory levels during a mild autumn will cool market sentiment. In the European market, profit-taking from extremely high RSI levels will pull NATGAS.EU quotes down toward the SMA50 average (63.50–58.00 EUR/MWh region). In the US market, falling industrial demand and a break of support at 2.75 USD will direct NATGAS valuation toward year-to-date lows at 2.60–2.45 USD. Coffee As of September 15, 2026, coffee prices stand at 289.05, representing a daily gain of nearly 2%, marking an attempt to recover from recent declines. From a broader perspective, however, the commodity displays weakness, losing 0.30% weekly and as much as 7.73% on a monthly basis. The long-term downtrend is confirmed by negative returns of -18.61% year-to-date (YTD) and -29.23% compared to the same period last year. The RSI indicator has dropped to an extremely oversold level of 12, technically foreshadowing an impending turning point, even though the MACD maintains a bearish signal and the price resides 9.48% below its 50-day moving average, despite long-term moving averages remaining structurally bullish (SMA: bullish). Coffee prices have experienced a clear pullback in recent weeks, but have halted slightly below 290 cents per pound, where support stems from local lows from late July and early August 2025. Additionally, we have the 50% retracement of the major 2023-2025 bullish wave and the 61.8% retracement of the short-term bullish wave from late June and early July of the current year. Source: xStation5 Fundamental and Market Context Coffee quotes at 289.05 demonstrate strong daily upward dynamics of 1.79%, significantly outpacing the average daily change for the broader commodity market, which currently stands at 0.42%. Weaker-than-projected August retail sales data in China and a deepening decline in construction investments there spark serious concerns regarding coffee demand in this key, rapidly developing Asian market. The coffee market contends with strong medium-term supply pressure, highlighted by a 7.73% price drop over the past month, forcing producers to re-evaluate their margins. The price decline is linked to the normalization of conditions following the earthquake in Colombia, which had caused a temporary halt in exports. A deep annual price discount in coffee reaching 29.23% reflects structural market shifts and growing investor fears regarding global demand stability amid an economic slowdown. Current financial investor positioning and market sentiment for coffee are classified as neutral, which, near current price lows, could favor stabilization and local bottom formation. Significant price distance below the 50-day moving average (-9.48%) points to severe technical overextension of the downtrend, historically increasing the probability of a sharp, corrective upward bounce. An extremely low RSI reading of 12 suggests selling pressure has reached near-total exhaustion, leaving the market highly vulnerable to sudden short-covering by hedge funds. Macroeconomic turmoil in Asia, including necessary bond market stabilization measures in South Korea, constrains speculative liquidity and prompts investors to reduce coffee market exposure. An economic slowdown in major consuming countries impacts the premium coffee segment, forcing global roasters into conservative inventory management and withholding spot purchases. Despite negative signals from the medium-term trend and a bearish MACD indication, long-term moving averages (SMA) maintain a bullish status, indicating that coffee's multi-year uptrend is not yet definitively broken. The main driver dragging coffee prices down is expectations of record harvests in Brazil, Vietnam (despite El Niño), Ethiopia, and Uganda, which are projected to push global coffee production to nearly 190 million bags against a demand of around 180 million bags, which is also expected to be record-breaking. However, it is worth noting that forecasts from the USDA and regional institutions like CONAB differ significantly. In previous years, discrepancies in expected Brazilian production reached up to 10 million bags. The USDA estimates production in Brazil above 70 million bags. A key moment will be October, when the Robusta harvest begins in Southeast Asian countries, providing insight into production prospects during the El Niño period, which typically brings drought to this region. Conversely, Brazil is experiencing abundant rainfall, which usually improves production prospects, though initial indications from the current season showed slightly poorer bean quality, high harvest volumes, and logistical hurdles. Notably, Arabica coffee stocks on the ICE exchange have fallen to their lowest level in nearly three years, providing strong support for valuations. Conversely, Robusta valuation is weighed down by rising inventories (highest in 5 months) and a massive YoY export increase of over 20% from Vietnam. Production in Brazil is expected to reach above 70 million bags due to a significant rebound in Arabica production. Source: USDA Coffee prices typically fell in the second half of the year when El Niño began. The most significant recent events were 1997 and 2015. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, USDA, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) Historical coffee valuation measured by Z-score metrics shows negative deviations over short- and medium-term horizons, where both the one-year Z1Y and two-year Z2Y current scores stand at -0.84. In a 5-year perspective, the Z5Y indicator assumes a positive value at +0.52. Analyzing the dynamics of this long-term indicator over the last six months reveals clear fluctuations in investor sentiment. Six months ago, the 5-year Z-score stood at +0.76, after which it dropped significantly in subsequent months, reaching a near-neutral level of +0.02 three months ago. Subsequently, this metric rebounded sharply to +1.20 a month ago, before sliding again over the last thirty days to its current reading of +0.52. Such volatility suggests that despite the recent strong sell-off, coffee remains relatively highly valued in a broader 5-year perspective compared to its historical mean. The current Z-score level signals moderate investment risk, where room for further drastic price declines is gradually diminishing, yet the market has not reached extreme undervaluation levels over a multi-year horizon, warranting caution when building long-term positions. It is worth noting that coffee is trading below its 1-year and 2-year averages, but these do not yet represent extreme oversold conditions. Nevertheless, the 5-year moving average has served as support for coffee since September 2025, currently residing above the 250 cents per pound level. Source: XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: For a sustained reversal of the negative trend, the coffee market must respond to extreme technical oversold conditions signaled by the RSI indicator at 12, initiating a wave of short-covering by institutional investors. A fundamental catalyst would be a weakening US dollar triggered by declining US Treasury yields and improved consumer sentiment in Asia, particularly China. From a technical analysis perspective, breaking through the 50-day moving average barrier will open the door to a more durable recovery. Under this setup, coffee prices should bounce dynamically, aiming first at resistance at 315.00, and with a stronger demand impulse, toward 335.00. Bearish Scenario: Continuation of the downtrend will occur if weak macroeconomic data from China translates into a real drop in bean imports, and persistently high US interest rates continue to support the dollar, placing pressure on soft commodities. Technically, a lack of demand response to extremely low RSI readings and further negative signals generated by MACD will confirm total bear dominance. In this scenario, upon breaking psychological support at 280.00, coffee prices will enter another sell-off phase. The target level for sellers will then become the 265.00 area, with potential deepening down to long-term support at 250.00. Oil The global crude oil market is experiencing a strong, dynamic upward surge, driving quotes for both major benchmarks above the 100 USD per barrel threshold for the first time since July 2026. As of September 15, 2026, WTI crude stands at over 103 USD (+22.41% m/m, +79.79% YTD), while Brent crude is valued at 107 USD (+17.65% m/m, +76.39% YTD). Both benchmarks trade significantly above their 50-day moving averages (WTI by +21.16%, Brent by +19.13%). Technical indicators from MACD and SMA unequivocally favor the demand side; however, RSI readings (85 for WTI, 84 for Brent) signal extreme overheating and heavy overbought conditions for both assets. Key resistance lies at 103.40 USD (WTI) and 110.00 USD (Brent), with primary support levels located at 99.00 USD and 103.00–100.00 USD, respectively. From a weekly perspective, oil clearly struggles to break above the 105–110 USD per barrel zone, while a strong supply zone sits above 112 USD. Source: xStation5 Fundamental and Market Context Escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, including attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and tanker incidents in the Persian Gulf, drastically elevates risk premiums as well as freight and marine insurance costs. The threat of navigation paralysis through the Strait of Hormuz has sparked global supply constraint fears, driving a rapid surge in valuations and speculation regarding potential further price spikes. Speculation regarding pumping station repairs on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline suggests work could extend to 5-6 weeks. Conversely, reports indicate partial operability could be restored within a few days. The Houthis taking control of the Yemeni coastline near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait raises fears over vessel departures from Yanbu port heading toward Asia. However, data does not show a drastic shift in the actual situation yet. Chinese refineries, facing depleted capacity to draw from strategic reserves, have aggressively returned to spot market purchasing, paying record premiums for cargoes from Russia, Africa, and the Americas. A rebound in Chinese petroleum product exports alongside solid industrial production figures encourages domestic refiners to maintain high crude throughput despite weaker retail consumption data. Historical Valuation (Z-score) Historical Z-score analysis for both oil grades reveals very similar, extreme levels of deviation from long-term moving averages. For WTI crude, the one-year Z1Y stands at +1.61, Z2Y reaches +2.41, and the 5-year Z5Y surged over the past month from +0.23 to +1.82. For Brent crude, these values stand at: Z1Y at +1.64, Z2Y at +2.44, and Z5Y at +1.86 (up from +0.48 a month ago). This metric evolution clearly demonstrates that the oil market transitioned from equilibrium to deep statistical overvaluation in a very short span. Elevated Z-score readings combined with overbought momentum indicators highlight significant risk of a severe corrective pullback should geopolitical risk factors ease. An overbought signal appears on Brent crude relative to its two-year average, whereas no clear overvaluation is observed relative to the 1-year and 5-year averages. Source: XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Further military escalation in the Middle East, additional attacks on production infrastructure, and a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will cause supply deficits. The need to rebuild inventories by Asian refiners will further boost spot market rates. A sustained breakout above resistance at 103.40 USD (WTI) and 110.00 USD (Brent) will open the path toward further upside target ranges of 108.00–112.00 USD per barrel for WTI and 115.00–125.00 USD per barrel for Brent. Bearish Scenario: Diplomatic de-escalation of the conflict and restoration of safe maritime navigation will lead to an immediate deflation of the geopolitical premium. Given extremely high RSI readings (84–85), rapid profit-taking, long liquidation, and a price slide will ensue. Breaking support at 99.00 USD on WTI and 103.00 USD on Brent will bring quotes down toward 95.00–92.00 USD for WTI and 100.00–95.00 USD for Brent, respectively. Gold Gold price as of September 15, 2026, stands at USD 4,276, representing a noticeable pullback of 2.39% weekly and 2.73% monthly. Year-to-date (YTD), the precious metal is down a symbolic 0.82%, though on an annual basis it maintains a solid gain of 16.42%. The RSI indicator has dropped to a borderline level of 30, signaling strong market oversold conditions, while moving averages (SMA) and the MACD generator render explicitly bearish signals. Despite this, current valuation resides slightly above the 50-day moving average, and overall market sentiment remains neutral, pointing to key support around USD 4,250–4,270 and resistance at USD 4,350. Gold potentially breaks below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, but simultaneously remains above support linked to the SMA-50 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward impulse. Source: xStation5 Fundamental and Market Context Gold prices in the key Indian market stabilized in mid-September, exhibiting minimal volatility and remaining nearly unchanged, reflecting a temporary balancing of physical supply and demand. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries crossed the 5% threshold, exerting strong downward pressure on gold valuation by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance declared readiness to take immediate steps to stabilize the domestic bond market if necessary, indicating growing stress across global debt markets that could translate into volatile capital flows into safe-haven assets. Escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical turmoil, including renewed attacks on critical infrastructure and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf region, maintains an elevated risk premium that historically offers strong support for bullion prices. Concerns regarding East Asian debt market stability and the need for tight yield monitoring by local policymakers force institutional investors into cautious positioning, limiting aggressive gold sell-offs. Growing pressure on Beijing to deploy additional economic stimulus packages could boost gold demand over the medium term if announced reforms and liquidity support achieve their intended effect. Increased investor interest in multi-manager hedge funds in 2026 influences futures market positioning structures, with managers emphasizing hedging strategies against macroeconomic volatility using gold. Gold remains a key reserve asset, evidenced by continued central bank purchases in Q3 of this year, with central banks from Poland, China, and Uzbekistan extending their buying momentum. Recent actions by certain central banks, such as the Netherlands, to repatriate gold reserves from the US to Europe to enhance reserve liquidity are also worth noting. The current drawdown closely resembles the 2008 pattern, suggesting potential for a return to all-time highs within a 1-2 year horizon. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Market-implied Fed funds rate for June 2027 stands at 4.5%. Similar conditions in 2023 marked local peaks or consolidation phases. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Long positions have recently increased alongside a reduction in short positions; however, net positioning sits barely above its 2-year average, leaving ample headroom for prospective buyers. Source: CFTC, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score metric analysis points to varying degrees of gold valuation across different time horizons. The annual Z1Y indicator currently stands at -0.43, suggesting mild short-term undervaluation, while the two-year Z2Y metric sits at +0.69, and the five-year Z5Y reaches +1.57. Examining the trajectory of the five-year Z-score over the past six months reveals a distinct downward trend. Six months ago, this score stood as high as +3.05, before dropping to +1.80 three months ago and +1.73 last month, reaching its current level of +1.57. This systematic compression of the five-year Z-score indicates a gradual unwinding of historical gold overvaluation and a return toward balanced levels. From a risk assessment standpoint, this dynamic reduces the likelihood of a sharp, disorderly price correction, rendering current levels more appealing to long-term investors, though still requiring prudence given the metric's position above historical means. Gold currently displays no overvaluation signals, yet fails to indicate relatively low valuation versus recent historical levels. Source: XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: A necessary prerequisite to reverse the current pullback is a decline in US Treasury yields below the five percent threshold and a renewed escalation of Middle East geopolitical stress, driving capital back into safe havens. From a technical view, strong oversold conditions signaled by the RSI at 30 must trigger a decisive demand response around support near USD 4,270. An added impulse would stem from aggressive stimulus measures announced by Beijing to revive domestic retail demand. Under these conditions, gold prices should breach resistance at USD 4,350 and head toward USD 4,500 per ounce. Bearish Scenario: Persistent 10-year US Treasury yields above five percent, coupled with a deepening economic slowdown in China and weak retail sales data, could permanently tilt the scale toward sellers. If Asian bond markets destabilize further and global investors favor cash over precious metals, a firm breakdown below the 50-day moving average will occur. Bearish signals from SMA and MACD indicators would strengthen, which, in the absence of support defense, will deepen the sell-off and push gold prices down first to USD 4,200, and in an extreme case, to test the psychological USD 4,050 per ounce barrier.

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Markets

September 15, 2026

Chart of the Day: Gold at five-week lows – what stands behind the decline?

Gold continues its September sell-off. An ounce is currently trading below $4,270, representing its lowest level in five weeks. The precious metal has lost nearly 9% relative to its August peak, with September alone bringing a drop of over 3%. Figure 1: Gold and US 10-Year Treasury Yield [Inverted Axis] (2026) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026 Oil and yields weigh on precious metals The primary driver of the sell-off remains rising expectations of interest rate hikes in the US. The market is currently pricing in a 92% probability of a rate increase at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, which would mark the first rate hike in three years. The catalyst for this hawkish repricing came from recent inflation data and an escalation in the oil market; following the temporary shutdown of the East-West pipeline by Saudi Arabia, Brent crude breached the $108 per barrel mark. September's price increase has now reached nearly 20%. Rising energy costs are fuelling inflation concerns, which, combined with growing public debt, is pushing the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds to levels not seen in nearly two decades (5.04%, the highest since 2007). Higher yields traditionally act as a headwind for gold, which yields no interest. Demand from funds and central banks remains stable Interestingly, the price decline is accompanied by a recovery in assets under management in gold ETFs, which are returning towards pre-July trough levels. Meanwhile, central banks, according to World Gold Council data, remain in reserve accumulation mode. Therefore, the drop in prices does not appear to stem from an outflow of long-term demand, but rather from short-term market positioning ahead of a Fed rate hike. Harmony Gold mine accident in the background An additional, though currently secondary, factor for the market is a tragic accident at the Mponeng mine, owned by Harmony Gold in South Africa. Following a seismic event in the underground workings, a worker lost their life, and operations have been suspended pending an investigation by the relevant authorities. Mponeng is one of the deepest gold mines in the world; potential prolonged outages could impact global bullion supply over the longer term, although at present the market is not pricing this in as a material factor for prices. Awaiting the Fed decision In the coming days, the Fed meeting will be crucial for gold and other precious metals. Indications suggest that the first interest rate hike since July 2023 could take place on Wednesday at 7:00 PM. For a long time, there were doubts over whether the committee would indeed decide on such a move, particularly given the ambiguous communication from the new chair, Kevin Warsh. Currently, however, markets are pricing it in at over 90%. Figure 2: Change in Market-Implied Probability of September Fed Rate Hike (2025 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 15.09.2026 A pause could be interpreted as the Fed giving in to pressure from Donald Trump, who has been vocal in advocating for lower rates. This would likely result in a further rise in long-term bond yields and a resurgence of the debasement trade, a strategy involving a shift away from fiat currencies towards hard assets with capped supply, including precious metals and Bitcoin. This would certainly not be positive news for the US dollar, which has enjoyed a relatively successful period. Technical Analysis Figure 3: GOLD [D1] (15.03.2026 - 15.09.2026) Source: xStation, 15.09.2026 Gold prices have fallen below all three exponential moving averages (EMA 50, 100, and 150), which are currently converging in a narrow band between $4,344 and $4,365, forming a resistance zone. Price previously managed to bounce off this moving average cluster in August and rally towards $4,700, but the move proved unsustainable and was completely unwound in September. The current price level coincides with prior support from late July and early August, making this zone critical for the next directional move; a decisive breakdown would open the path towards the June-July lows in the $4,000 area. The RSI stands at a neutral 43 level, comfortably away from oversold territory. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory, with the MACD line sitting below the signal line and signaling no immediate trend reversal. Thus, the technical picture remains aligned with the fundamentals: until there is a shift in the narrative surrounding oil prices and Fed monetary policy, the advantage remains firmly with the bears.

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Forex Trading

September 15, 2026

Trade of the Day: EUR/GBP

Market Bias: Bearish Technical Setup EUR/GBP has rejected the 0.8585 resistance level, reinforcing the recent bearish structure. On the daily timeframe, the pair is also trading below its 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), keeping the broader technical bias tilted to the downside. The 0.8585 area represents an important technical confluence zone, with resistance aligning with the upper boundary of the current 1:1 structure, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the 100-period EMA. Trade Setup Instrument: EUR/GBPBias: Bearish / ShortEntry: Market priceTarget 1: 0.8469Target 2: 0.8415Stop Loss: 0.8628 Today Markets View EUR/GBP remains under pressure following its rejection from the 0.8585 resistance area. The pair's position below the daily 100-period EMA adds weight to the bearish case, while the rejection of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement suggests that the recent corrective move may be losing momentum. From an Overbalance perspective, the bearish structure remains valid while EUR/GBP trades below 0.8585. A sustained move beneath this resistance would therefore keep the focus on the downside, with 0.8469 representing the first potential objective and 0.8415 the second. A move back above 0.8585, particularly if followed by a break of 0.8628, would weaken or invalidate this bearish setup. Trade Bias: 🔴 Bearish Risk note: This is technical market analysis, not personal investment advice. Trading leveraged FX and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Today Markets Analysis | Currency Hedger Today Markets provides market intelligence and trading analysis, while Currency Hedger focuses on FX markets, currency risk and hedging solutions as part of the Octalas Group.

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Banks

September 15, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI support tempers depreciation risks versus US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan assesses Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) June 2026 FX measures and their impact on the Indian Rupee and USD/INR. He notes a large build-up of FX reserves and liquidity, and argues these measures have reduced tail risks of sharp INR depreciation. However, MUFG still expects USD/INR to rise gradually into 2027, with INR underperforming other Asian currencies. RBI FX inflows reshape INR outlook "Following RBI’s FX measures announced in June 2026 to support the Indian Rupee, the amount of Dollars attracted through the various facilities including FCNR(B) deposits now stands at a meaningful US$136bn as of 31 Aug, and likely still rising as we speak. With this huge deluge of money, it made sense in retrospect for RBI to have closed the FCNR(B) facility earlier than expected." "Note that there is no spot FX transaction unless RBI actively chooses to intervene in the INR FX market. As such it’s not surprising that USD/INR did not move much immediately in the first instance. These Dollar inflows do give RBI far bigger firepower to defend against INR weakness, but they also bring about their own set of challenges, namely INR liquidity management." "From an FX perspective, we continue to think that RBI’s measures have significantly reduced the left tail risk of sharp INR depreciation. Nonetheless, given still strong underlying Dollar demand including from gross FDI repatriation and a strong IPO issuance pipeline, we are still forecasting USD/INR to move higher directionally." "We are forecasting USD/INR at 95.50 by Dec 2026 and 96.50 by June 2027, implying a gradual depreciation in INR against the Dollar and a modest underperformance against other Asian currencies."

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Banks

September 15, 2026

Oil: Saudi pipeline outage supports prices – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices have surged as the Saudi East–West pipeline shutdown tightens supply and keeps ICE Brent near recent resistance around $110/bbl. They highlight persistent uncertainty over damage and outage duration, with Saudi storage at Yanbu only offering temporary relief and risks that port stocks deplete before flows resume, leaving prices well supported in the near term. Saudi outage keeps Brent supported "Oil prices surged yesterday amid broader escalation in the Middle East and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s 7m b/d East-West pipeline. ICE Brent traded to an intraday high of just below $110/bbl, a level at which the market has faced tough resistance over the last 3 days." "Plenty of uncertainty remains over the extent of damage and the duration of the outage for the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Prices are likely to remain well supported until we get clarity." "Reports suggest the pipeline could be offline for several weeks. The Saudis have oil in storage tanks at Yanbu, which should sustain exports for several days." "The risk is that port stocks run out before the pipeline resumes. Some suggest the Saudis are looking to increase exports via the Strait of Hormuz amid the pipeline outage." "Given the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, that may be easier said than done. Despite Trump stating that Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt hitting each other’s energy infrastructure, we’ve seen little relief in middle distillate cracks."

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Banks

September 15, 2026

Japanese Yen: Higher Q4 range projected – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park and Nicholas Chia expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver a 25bps rate hike in September but maintain a gradual normalisation path. They argue that USD/JPY is unlikely to fall on BoJ tightening alone and project the pair returning to the upper half of the 155-160 range in Q4, as recent JPY positives appear fully priced. BoJ hike seen yet Yen upside limited "We expect the BoJ to raise the policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% at its 17-18 September meeting, while avoiding an overly hawkish message." "We therefore view a September move as a pre-emptive hike, followed by a more patient phase of policy normalisation." "We have maintained that outsized rate hikes by the BoJ or swift repatriation by the GPIF are unlikely." "In other words, we think the JPY’s positives are already priced in, and therefore see a low bar for the market to be surprised negatively on either front." "We see USD/JPY returning higher to the upper half of the 155-160 range in Q4."

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Energies

September 15, 2026

WTI Climbs Back Above $99 as Middle East Tensions Fuel Further Upside Risks

Today Markets Analysis: WTI crude oil has reclaimed the $99 per barrel level, extending its recent advance as escalating Middle East tensions raise concerns over regional supply and keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. With crude trading close to its highest levels since May, the market remains focused on the potential for further supply disruption and whether the latest geopolitical developments can push prices towards the $100–$107 region. Middle East Tensions Keep Supply Risk Elevated WTI has maintained a positive bias as renewed tensions in the Middle East increase concerns over energy infrastructure and regional supply routes. Recent attacks involving Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, alongside limited prospects for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran, have reinforced concerns that the conflict could remain prolonged. For oil markets, the immediate issue is therefore not simply current production levels, but the possibility that the conflict could disrupt future supply, transportation routes and regional energy infrastructure. This geopolitical premium is helping crude prices remain elevated even as broader demand concerns continue to influence the market. Supply Disruption Risk Becomes the Key Driver Oil markets are particularly sensitive to developments involving the Middle East because of the region's importance to global energy supply and transportation. A sustained escalation could increase the risk premium embedded in crude prices, particularly if tensions spread to major production or shipping infrastructure. The current market therefore has two competing forces: Market FactorCurrent DirectionImpact on WTIMiddle East tensionsElevatedBullishSupply disruption riskIncreasingBullishGeopolitical risk premiumHigherBullishOil pricesNear recent highsBullishGlobal demand concernsPersistentBearishUS DollarFirmBearishTechnical momentumPositiveBullish Technical Momentum Remains Constructive WTI's move above the $91.00 area was an important technical development, as the level represented both a significant horizontal resistance zone and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous May–July decline. The subsequent move towards $99 has strengthened the technical picture. Momentum indicators also remain supportive. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, while the MACD remains positive. This suggests that buyers continue to control the near-term trend, although increasingly stretched momentum means the market could become vulnerable to short-term profit-taking. The key technical levels are now: $99.00 – important psychological level $98.57 – immediate technical support $91.78 – major Fibonacci support $87.01 – next downside level $85.39 – 100-day moving average $82.24 – deeper support $76.33 – further structural support $107.23 – major upside resistance Could WTI Test $100? The ability of WTI to remain above the high-$90s will be important. A sustained move above $99–$100 would reinforce the bullish technical structure and potentially open the way towards the previous cycle high around $107.23. However, the closer oil moves towards $100, the more important the distinction becomes between geopolitical risk and fundamental demand. If tensions continue to escalate while physical supply becomes genuinely threatened, the market could sustain prices above $100. If geopolitical concerns ease without an actual disruption to supply, some of the risk premium could unwind quickly. What Traders Are Watching Next The key factors for the oil market are: Developments involving Iran and the United States Houthi activity and regional shipping risks Any disruption to Middle Eastern production or infrastructure OPEC+ supply policy US crude inventories Global oil demand expectations WTI's ability to hold above $98–$99 Price action around the $100 psychological level The most important distinction for traders will be whether geopolitical developments remain a risk premium or turn into an actual reduction in available supply. Currency Hedger View Higher oil prices also have important implications for corporate currency management. For businesses that import energy or energy-intensive goods, a sustained move towards or above $100 per barrel can increase the underlying cost of imports. The impact can be even more significant when combined with a stronger US Dollar. For companies purchasing oil or other dollar-denominated commodities, this creates a potential double cost pressure: higher commodity prices and an unfavourable exchange-rate move. Energy importers should therefore avoid looking at oil and FX exposure in isolation. A company may have a relatively stable oil price budget but still experience a significant increase in its local-currency cost if the dollar strengthens at the same time. For currency hedgers, this reinforces the value of monitoring both commodity exposure and USD exposure when setting forward hedge ratios. Today Markets View WTI's recovery above $99 keeps the near-term outlook constructive as Middle East tensions continue to support the geopolitical risk premium. The technical picture also favours further gains, with the $107.23 area representing the next major upside reference if crude can establish itself above $100. However, the market is becoming increasingly dependent on geopolitical developments. A further escalation or genuine supply disruption could accelerate the move higher, while any credible diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a rapid reduction in the risk premium. For businesses exposed to energy costs, the combination of oil above $99 and a firm US Dollar deserves particular attention. Bottom Line WTI has reclaimed $99 per barrel as escalating Middle East tensions keep supply concerns at the forefront of the oil market. The technical structure remains bullish, with $100 acting as the next psychological test and $107.23 the major upside resistance. For corporate hedgers, the bigger concern is the potential combination of higher crude prices and a stronger US Dollar, which could materially increase local-currency energy costs. Until geopolitical risks begin to ease, meaningful dips in WTI may continue to attract buyers. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 15, 2026

Palm Oil Pushes Above MYR 4,850 as Oil and Weather Risks Clash With Rising Inventories

Today Markets Analysis: Malaysian palm oil futures extended their gains above MYR 4,850 per tonne, supported by a weaker Malaysian ringgit, higher crude oil prices and growing concerns over dry weather in Southeast Asia. However, the rally is facing significant bearish headwinds, with Malaysian inventories at an eight-month high, production increasing and exports weakening. The palm oil market is therefore being pulled in two directions: tightening future supply risks and stronger energy prices are supporting prices today, while weak exports and elevated inventories are limiting the bullish case. Bullish Forces: Oil, Currency and Weather Several factors are currently supporting palm oil prices. The weaker ringgit is providing an important tailwind. Because palm oil is traded internationally in US dollars, a weaker Malaysian currency can improve the competitiveness of Malaysian exports and provide additional support to local futures prices. Crude oil is another bullish factor. Oil prices have moved above $100 a barrel amid persistent Middle East tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Higher crude prices can improve the relative attractiveness of vegetable oils for biofuel production, strengthening the broader energy-linked demand outlook for palm oil. Weather is also becoming increasingly important. Extra-dry conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia are raising concerns about future palm production. While the impact on immediate output may be limited, prolonged dryness can affect palm yields and therefore tighten the supply outlook in subsequent months. These factors create a credible bullish argument: Bullish FactorCurrent SignalPotential ImpactMalaysian ringgitWeakerSupports export competitivenessCrude oilAbove $100Supports biofuel demandSoutheast Asian weatherIncreasingly dryRaises future supply risksMiddle East tensionsElevatedSupports energy pricesFuture production outlookWeather-sensitivePotentially bullish Bearish Forces: Inventories and Weak Exports The biggest challenge to the bullish argument is the latest Malaysian supply data. Malaysian palm oil inventories increased 7.5% month-on-month, reaching an eight-month high. At the same time, production rose 1.4%, while exports fell 7.5%. That is an uncomfortable combination for the bulls. Higher production combined with weaker exports means more palm oil is remaining in domestic inventories. Unless export demand improves or production slows, the accumulation of stocks could place increasing pressure on prices. Early September export data provides little reassurance. Cargo surveyors reported that Malaysian palm oil shipments during the first 10 days of September were down between 11.7% and 17.5% from the same period in August. This suggests that the weakness in exports may not have been limited to August. India and China Add More Demand Uncertainty Demand conditions among major buyers are also sending mixed signals. In India, heavy edible-oil purchasing has created congestion at major ports, delaying vessel unloading as storage tanks approach capacity. That could reduce near-term import demand because buyers may need to work through existing inventories before committing to additional cargoes. China is another important variable. August economic data was mixed, pointing towards an uneven domestic demand environment. As one of the world's major palm oil buyers, China's consumption trends remain important for the outlook. The demand picture is therefore not sufficiently strong to offset the bearish signal coming from Malaysian inventories. Dalian Edible Oils Limit the Upside Palm oil is also facing competition from other edible oils. Softer prices in Dalian's edible-oil markets have limited the upside in Malaysian palm oil futures. This matters because vegetable oils compete with one another across food and industrial applications. When competing oils weaken, palm oil can struggle to sustain a sharp rally unless it has a clear fundamental advantage. For now, that advantage is coming primarily from energy prices and supply-side weather risks, rather than exceptionally strong physical demand. Bullish vs Bearish Balance The current market can be viewed as a battle between short-term bullish momentum and medium-term bearish fundamentals. FactorSentimentWhy It MattersCrude oil above $100BullishSupports biofuel economicsWeaker ringgitBullishImproves export competitivenessDry weatherBullishRaises future production risksMiddle East tensionsBullishSupports energy marketsMalaysian inventoriesBearishEight-month highMalaysian productionBearishOutput increased 1.4%Malaysian exportsBearishAugust exports fell 7.5%Early September shipmentsBearishDown 11.7–17.5%India port congestionBearishCould reduce near-term importsDalian edible oilsBearishCompeting vegetable oils weakerChinese demandMixed/BearishRecovery remains uneven What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate question is whether the bullish external factors can overcome the increasingly bearish palm-oil-specific fundamentals. Traders should monitor: Malaysian palm oil inventories September export data Indonesian and Malaysian weather Crude oil prices Malaysian ringgit movements Indian import demand Chinese edible-oil consumption Dalian soybean and palm oil prices A continued rise in inventories alongside weak exports would strengthen the bearish case. Conversely, evidence of production losses from dry weather, stronger exports or sustained crude prices above $100 would reinforce the bullish argument. Today Markets View Palm oil is currently a two-sided market. The move above MYR 4,850 per tonne shows that bulls still have momentum, particularly with crude oil above $100 and the ringgit weakening. But the underlying Malaysian data remains difficult to ignore. Inventories at an eight-month high, higher production and falling exports represent a substantial bearish counterweight. If exports remain weak through September, the market could begin questioning whether the current rally is justified by physical fundamentals. The bullish case therefore depends heavily on future supply risks and energy prices, while the bearish case is already visible in current inventory and export data. For now, the balance is cautiously bullish in the short term but fundamentally vulnerable to a bearish reversal if Malaysian stocks continue to build. Bottom Line Palm oil has extended its gains above MYR 4,850 per tonne, helped by a weaker ringgit, crude oil above $100 and concerns over dry weather in Southeast Asia. However, the rally is facing significant fundamental resistance. Malaysian inventories are at an eight-month high, production is rising and exports are falling, while weaker competing edible oils and potential demand constraints in India and China add further pressure. The next major signal will come from September export and inventory data. If exports recover while weather threatens future production, the bullish case strengthens. If inventories continue rising and shipments remain weak, the bearish case could quickly regain control. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Iron Ore Slides to Three-Week Low as Supply Builds and China’s Steel Demand Weakens

Today Markets Analysis: Iron ore futures have fallen below CNY 710 per tonne, reaching a three-week low as rising global shipments and weakening Chinese steel demand reinforce concerns that the market remains oversupplied. While steel mills could return to the market to replenish inventories ahead of China’s October National Day holiday, the underlying demand picture remains challenging. Rising Shipments Add to Supply Pressure The latest industry data showed global iron ore shipments rising by 1.59 million tonnes to 35.17 million tonnes in the week ended September 13. That increase reinforces the supply-side pressure facing the market. With more material reaching global markets while Chinese steel consumption remains subdued, producers are facing a more difficult pricing environment. For iron ore bulls, the immediate problem is therefore not simply the level of demand, but the combination of ample supply and softer downstream consumption. Chinese Steel Demand Remains the Bigger Problem China remains the critical driver of the iron ore market, and the latest signals from the property sector continue to disappoint. China's new home prices extended their decline in August, highlighting the continuing weakness in the country's property market. Construction activity has been a major source of steel demand, meaning prolonged weakness in residential development is directly relevant to iron ore consumption. The third quarter has therefore offered little evidence of a meaningful turnaround in steel demand. For the iron ore market, this creates a difficult feedback loop: Market FactorCurrent DirectionImpact on Iron OreGlobal shipmentsHigherBearishChinese property marketWeakeningBearishSteel demandSoftBearishCoke pricesElevatedBearishSteel mill marginsUnder pressureBearishPre-holiday restockingPotentially higherSupportive Higher Coke Prices Squeeze Steel Mills Another complication is the continued strength of coke prices, which is putting additional pressure on steelmakers' margins. When steel mills face weaker selling prices while input costs remain elevated, production becomes less attractive. Some producers have responded by scaling back operations or scheduling maintenance. That matters for iron ore because lower blast-furnace utilisation ultimately reduces the amount of raw material required by mills. In other words, even if iron ore prices fall enough to become more attractive, mills may not increase purchases substantially if their own profitability remains under pressure. Could October Holiday Restocking Provide a Floor? There is one potentially important counterweight. China's extended National Day holiday in early October could encourage steel mills to replenish iron ore inventories beforehand. This type of seasonal purchasing can create a temporary increase in physical demand, particularly if mills want to ensure sufficient raw material availability while logistics and production schedules are disrupted during the holiday period. However, traders will need to distinguish between inventory replenishment and genuine demand growth. A short-term increase in purchases does not necessarily indicate that China's steel market has turned higher. If mills are simply bringing forward purchases ahead of the holiday, the resulting support could prove temporary. What Traders Are Watching Next The key question for iron ore is whether the market can find support around current levels without a meaningful improvement in Chinese steel demand. Traders should focus on: Chinese property prices and construction activity Steel mill operating rates and maintenance Global iron ore shipment volumes Steel and coke prices Chinese iron ore port inventories Steel mill profitability Pre-National Day restocking activity A sustained recovery in steel margins would be particularly important because it could encourage mills to increase production and raw-material purchases. Until that happens, rallies may continue to attract selling from traders focused on the supply-demand imbalance. Today Markets View Iron ore's move below CNY 710 reflects a market increasingly focused on fundamentals rather than short-term speculation. The potential for pre-holiday restocking could provide some support over the coming weeks, but it is difficult to establish a durable bullish case while China's property sector remains weak and global shipments are increasing. The bigger signal to watch is therefore not simply whether Chinese mills buy more iron ore before the holiday, but whether steel production and profitability begin improving afterwards. For now, the balance remains tilted towards the downside, with CNY 710 becoming an important psychological level for the market. Bottom Line Iron ore has fallen to a three-week low as higher global shipments, weak Chinese construction demand and squeezed steel margins weigh on the market. Pre-holiday inventory replenishment could temporarily slow the decline, but a more durable recovery in iron ore is likely to require evidence of improving Chinese steel demand and healthier mill profitability. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Gold Rebounds From $4,280 Support as Fed Bets and a Stronger Dollar Cap the Upside

Today Markets Analysis: Gold is attempting to stabilise after falling to a more than one-month low, with XAU/USD recovering from the $4,284–$4,283 area during Asian trading. The rebound shows buyers are still defending important technical support, but the broader environment remains challenging as markets price a Federal Reserve rate hike and US Treasury yields push higher. Gold's immediate recovery therefore looks more like a technical bounce than a confirmed trend reversal. Fed Decision Becomes the Main Driver The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting is now the dominant event for gold markets. Recent US inflation data has strengthened expectations for an imminent rate hike, but the decision itself may not be the most important part of the announcement. Investors will be watching the Fed's updated economic projections and, particularly, the dot plot for clues about the future path of interest rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will also be closely scrutinised. For gold, the distinction is crucial. A rate cut or dovish message can support bullion by reducing yields and weakening the dollar, while a hawkish outlook could extend the pressure on a non-yielding asset. 5% Treasury Yields Create a Major Headwind The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, reaching a level not seen since 2023. That creates a significant opportunity-cost problem for gold. Gold does not generate interest income. When Treasury yields rise, investors have a greater incentive to hold income-producing dollar assets instead. The recent rise in yields has also been driven by concerns over persistent inflation, higher energy costs and increased government and corporate borrowing. This means the pressure on gold is coming from several directions simultaneously. A Stronger Dollar Adds Another Layer of Pressure The US dollar remains close to a nearly two-week high as investors seek safety amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty. That matters because gold is priced in dollars. When the dollar strengthens, bullion becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially reducing international demand. The current combination of higher yields and a firmer dollar is therefore particularly difficult for gold. Geopolitical risk would normally provide a bullish argument for bullion, but the current environment is unusual: investors are also using the US dollar itself as a safe-haven asset. That has limited gold's ability to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty. Middle East Risks Complicate the Outlook The Middle East remains an important variable. An attack by Iran-backed Houthis on a Saudi air base and the absence of immediate progress toward renewed US-Iran negotiations are keeping geopolitical risk elevated. However, the market response has favoured the dollar rather than gold. That highlights an important distinction for traders: safe-haven demand does not automatically mean gold demand. When geopolitical stress coincides with rising US yields and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, the dollar can capture a disproportionate share of defensive capital. Gold's Technical Picture Remains Cautious The technical setup suggests that gold is consolidating rather than beginning a confirmed bullish reversal. The metal remains above its 50-day SMA around $4,275, but momentum indicators are not yet showing strong buying pressure. The RSI is around 45, indicating relatively subdued momentum, while the MACD remains negative. The first major upside test is the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $4,323. A sustained break above that level would improve the technical picture and put the 38.2% retracement around $4,412 into focus. Beyond that, the 23.6% retracement near $4,522 becomes the next significant resistance zone. Key Gold Levels LevelSignificance$4,52223.6% Fibonacci resistance$4,41238.2% Fibonacci resistance$4,32350% Fibonacci resistance$4,284–$4,283Recent rebound zone$4,27550-day SMA / immediate structural support$4,23461.8% Fibonacci support$4,10878.6% Fibonacci support$3,947Deeper structural support The most important near-term test is therefore straightforward: can buyers reclaim $4,323? Until they do, the recovery remains vulnerable to another wave of selling. What Traders Are Watching Next The Fed decision and subsequent press conference will determine whether the current rebound can develop into something more substantial. Three scenarios matter most: Hawkish Fed: Higher yields and a stronger dollar could push gold back toward $4,275 and potentially $4,234. Dovish Fed: Falling yields and dollar weakness could allow gold to break above $4,323, opening the way toward $4,412. Neutral Fed: Gold could remain range-bound while traders wait for clearer signals from inflation and Treasury markets. Currency Hedger View Gold's current behaviour also demonstrates why FX and precious-metals exposure increasingly need to be considered together. For international investors and businesses, the return on gold is not determined solely by the XAU/USD price. Currency movements can materially alter the effective value of the position when translated back into euros, pounds, dirhams or other operating currencies. The current environment is particularly important because a stronger US dollar is simultaneously pressuring gold and changing the effective FX cost for international buyers. Businesses purchasing precious metals or commodities in US dollars therefore face two separate variables: the underlying commodity price and the USD exchange rate. Currency Hedger's view is that these exposures should be assessed independently when managing corporate cash flows. A company may be comfortable with its gold or commodity price exposure while still carrying substantial USD currency risk. Today Markets View Gold has found buyers around the $4,284–$4,283 area, but the rebound has yet to change the underlying market structure. The combination of Fed rate-hike expectations, Treasury yields above 5% and a firmer US dollar continues to limit the upside. The 50-day SMA around $4,275 is the critical technical defence. If it holds, gold could attempt another move toward $4,323. A convincing break above $4,323 would improve the outlook and expose $4,412 next. However, failure to hold $4,275 would shift attention toward $4,234, with deeper support around $4,108. For now, the market remains caught between gold's traditional safe-haven appeal and the powerful yield and dollar forces working against it. “Gold is finding technical support, but the market needs more than a bounce from the 50-day average to establish a new bullish trend. Until yields and the dollar lose momentum, rallies remain vulnerable.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Gold is attempting to recover from its recent low, but the broader environment remains bearish-to-neutral. The immediate battleground is between $4,275 support and $4,323 resistance. A break above $4,323 would suggest that buyers are regaining control, while a decisive move below $4,275 could expose the $4,234 and $4,108 areas. The Federal Reserve's decision, its updated rate projections and the direction of the US 10-year yield will likely determine which side wins that battle. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Silver Slides Toward $63 as 5% Treasury Yields Put Pressure on Precious Metals

Today Markets Analysis: Silver is facing renewed selling pressure as rising energy prices, firmer inflation expectations and surging US Treasury yields strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy. XAG/USD fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, trading around $63.20 per troy ounce during Asian hours. The move highlights a difficult combination for silver. While geopolitical uncertainty and elevated commodity prices can normally support precious metals, a stronger US dollar and sharply higher real and nominal yields are currently outweighing that safe-haven demand. Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Surge Markets have dramatically increased expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. According to CME FedWatch pricing cited in the market, the probability of a hike has risen above 92%, compared with roughly 60% a week earlier. The shift follows stronger-than-expected inflation signals from the US economy. August CPI data showed renewed price pressure, while core inflation recorded its largest monthly gain in four months. Higher energy prices are adding another layer of concern. With oil prices remaining elevated, investors are increasingly worried that the inflationary impact could prove more persistent rather than simply reflecting temporary price movements. For silver, this creates a significant headwind because the metal provides no yield. As the return available on cash and government bonds increases, the opportunity cost of holding precious metals rises. Treasury Yields Become the Bigger Problem for Silver The US 10-year Treasury yield has moved toward the psychologically important 5% level, driven by inflation concerns as well as broader fiscal worries. That is an important development for precious metals. When Treasury yields rise sharply, investors can earn considerably more from relatively low-risk dollar-denominated assets. This can reduce demand for non-yielding assets such as silver and gold. The effect is amplified when higher yields coincide with a stronger dollar. For international silver buyers, a stronger US currency makes dollar-denominated silver more expensive, potentially reducing demand and adding another layer of pressure to XAG/USD. Silver's Next Move May Depend on Rates Rather Than Inflation Silver is particularly interesting because it sits between a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Longer term, industrial demand can provide fundamental support through areas such as solar technology, electronics and electrification. But in the short term, monetary policy can dominate price action. The current market is effectively asking whether inflation will force the Fed to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. If Treasury yields continue moving toward and above 5%, silver could struggle to regain its previous momentum even if geopolitical risks remain elevated. Conversely, any evidence that inflation is cooling or that Treasury yields have reached a peak could quickly improve the relative attractiveness of precious metals. Systematic Funds Could Amplify the Next Move TD Securities' latest CTA analysis suggests trend-following funds currently hold only a modest long position in silver. That is important because systematic positioning can change quickly when a market establishes a clear trend. A deeper sell-off could encourage CTA and other systematic strategies to reduce long exposure, potentially adding further selling pressure. A stabilisation in price, however, could leave room for these positions to rebuild if the broader trend turns higher again. The result is a market where positioning may become increasingly important alongside traditional supply, demand and macroeconomic factors. What Traders Are Watching Next Market driverWhy it matters for silverFed rate decisionA hawkish signal could reinforce pressure on non-yielding metalsUS 10-year yieldA sustained move toward/above 5% would increase the opportunity cost of holding silverUS inflationPersistent inflation could keep monetary policy restrictiveOil pricesHigher energy prices risk creating another inflationary impulseUS dollarDollar strength makes silver more expensive for overseas buyersCTA positioningFurther price weakness could trigger additional systematic selling Currency Hedger View From a foreign-exchange perspective, silver's decline is also a reminder that commodity prices cannot be viewed independently from the dollar. Silver is priced globally in US dollars, meaning movements in USD can materially change the economics for international buyers, manufacturers and businesses with commodity exposure. A stronger dollar combined with higher US yields creates a particularly challenging environment for commodities priced in USD. Companies purchasing silver or other industrial metals internationally therefore need to consider both the underlying commodity price and the FX rate at which the transaction is ultimately settled. For businesses with recurring dollar-denominated commodity purchases, Currency Hedger sees value in separating the two risks: managing the underlying silver exposure while also considering whether the corresponding USD exposure should be hedged. That becomes increasingly important when monetary-policy expectations are producing large moves in the dollar. Today Markets View Silver's current weakness is less about a sudden deterioration in its long-term industrial story and more about a rapidly changing macroeconomic environment. The combination of 92%+ Fed hike expectations, Treasury yields approaching 5%, elevated oil prices and a firmer dollar has created a powerful short-term headwind. The key question now is whether yields continue climbing. If the 10-year Treasury yield breaks decisively above 5%, silver could face another wave of pressure as investors reassess the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. If yields stabilise, however, silver could find room to recover as industrial demand and geopolitical risk regain influence. For now, the $63 area is the level traders are watching closely, with the next major move likely to be dictated more by US rates and the dollar than by silver-specific fundamentals. “Silver is being caught between two forces: persistent inflation is supportive for hard assets over the longer term, but the policy response to that inflation is creating a significant short-term headwind.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Silver has entered a more challenging phase as the market prices a substantially higher probability of further US monetary tightening. With XAG/USD around $63.20, Treasury yields approaching 5% and the dollar benefiting from stronger rate expectations, the immediate risk remains tilted to the downside. The next major catalyst is the Federal Reserve. A hawkish policy signal could extend the pressure on silver, while any indication that the current tightening cycle is close to its peak could provide the catalyst for a rebound. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Wheat Struggles as Weak US Exports Offset Harvest Progress

Today Markets Analysis: Wheat futures finished mixed on Monday, but the underlying fundamentals remain challenging. US spring wheat harvest is essentially complete, winter wheat planting is beginning, and export shipments continue to trail last year's pace significantly. At the same time, a larger Ukrainian crop estimate is adding to global supply expectations. The result is a wheat market caught between seasonal US crop developments and a lack of convincing export demand. US Spring Wheat Harvest Nearly Complete The US spring wheat harvest is now 93% complete, putting progress 1 percentage point ahead of the normal pace. That removes much of the uncertainty surrounding the spring crop and shifts attention toward winter wheat, where planting has reached just 8%, running 4 percentage points behind the five-year average. The planting delay is worth monitoring, particularly if weather conditions deteriorate during the remaining planting window. However, at this stage, the market appears more concerned about demand than acreage timing. US Wheat Exports Remain the Major Weakness The latest export inspection figures provide the clearest bearish signal. US wheat shipments totaled 456,720 metric tonnes, or approximately 16.78 million bushels, during the week ending September 10. That was: 5.9% below the previous week 39.8% below the same week last year Taking marketing-year shipments to 5.676 million tonnes Marketing-year shipments are now 27.8% below last year's comparable period Japan was the largest destination at 118,788 tonnes, followed by Mexico at 111,415 tonnes and Thailand at 93,003 tonnes. The problem for bulls is therefore not simply one weak weekly number. The cumulative export pace is also materially behind last year. Ukraine Adds More Global Supply Ukraine is providing another reason for wheat traders to remain cautious. APK-Inform has raised its estimate for Ukraine's 2026/27 wheat crop to 25 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4 million tonnes from its previous forecast. Ukrainian wheat exports are projected at 10.5 million tonnes for the marketing year. For global buyers, additional Ukrainian availability increases competition for US wheat, particularly in price-sensitive markets where origin can be switched relatively easily. That makes the US export deficit even more important for Chicago wheat. Wheat Futures Finish Unevenly The different wheat contracts reflected the lack of a clear bullish catalyst. ContractCloseChangeDec 2026 CBOT Wheat$7.22-3¼¢Mar 2027 CBOT Wheat$7.39¼-2¢Dec 2026 KC Wheat$7.92½-6¢Mar 2027 KC Wheat$8.06¾-5¼¢Dec 2026 Minneapolis Wheat$7.36¼-8¾¢Mar 2027 Minneapolis Wheat$7.58½-6¾¢ Chicago wheat held up better than Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts, but the broader complex still lacks evidence of a sustained demand-driven rally. The Market Needs an Export Catalyst Wheat can remain supported by weather risks and geopolitical uncertainty, but those factors need to translate into actual buying. For now, the export numbers are pointing in the opposite direction. A 27.8% year-on-year decline in marketing-year shipments leaves the US needing either stronger foreign demand, a supply disruption elsewhere, or a meaningful weather threat to change the balance. Without one of those catalysts, rallies could continue to attract selling from producers and commercial participants. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major signals for wheat will be: US winter wheat planting progress Whether planting delays widen beyond the current 4-point deficit Weekly US export inspections and whether the year-on-year gap begins to narrow Import demand from Japan, Mexico and other major buyers Ukrainian crop and export developments Weather across the US Plains as winter wheat establishment progresses Currency movements affecting the competitiveness of US wheat exports The export data will be particularly important. A recovery in weekly shipments would give the market evidence that US wheat is becoming more competitive internationally. Currency Hedger View For wheat, currency movements are directly linked to export competitiveness. A stronger US dollar can make US wheat more expensive for international buyers, particularly when exporters are competing against Ukraine and other Black Sea suppliers. This makes the dollar an important part of the wheat equation. If the US currency remains firm while Ukrainian supply expectations increase, US exporters may face an increasingly difficult pricing environment. From a corporate perspective, grain exporters and international agricultural buyers should also consider how forward FX rates affect contracted wheat costs and margins. Currency Hedger's role is particularly relevant where commodity purchases, export receipts and operating costs are denominated in different currencies. Today Markets View The headline says mixed trade, but the underlying wheat story is leaning cautious. The US spring harvest is virtually complete and winter wheat planting has begun, yet the more important signal is demand. US marketing-year exports are running almost 28% below last year's pace, while Ukraine is now expected to produce a larger crop. That combination limits the bullish argument. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Wheat has a supply story that is relatively manageable, but the demand picture is harder to ignore. Until US export shipments begin to recover, rallies are likely to face resistance.” The market can still turn quickly if weather disrupts winter wheat establishment or a major international buyer steps back into the US market. For now, however, the burden of proof remains with the bulls. Bottom Line Wheat futures are struggling to build momentum because US export demand remains substantially weaker than last year, while larger Ukrainian production estimates add to global competition. The next test is whether US export shipments can improve as winter wheat planting gets underway. Until that happens, $7 wheat remains vulnerable to further pressure, particularly if the US dollar stays firm and Black Sea supplies remain competitive. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Corn Starts the Week Higher as US Harvest Progress Meets Resilient Demand

Today Markets Analysis: Corn futures opened the new trading week on firmer footing, with contracts gaining between 1¼ and 3½ cents as traders balanced accelerating US crop maturity against relatively stable export demand and changing global supply expectations. December corn finished at $5.33¼, up 3 cents, while the nearby cash market climbed 3¼ cents to $4.87. The move suggests that, despite harvest pressure beginning to build, the market is not yet seeing enough additional supply to overwhelm demand. US Corn Crop Moves Rapidly Toward Harvest The latest Crop Progress report showed 86% of the US corn crop dented as of September 13. More importantly, 42% was already mature, while national harvest progress reached 8%. The crop is therefore moving quickly toward the point where physical supply will become increasingly available to the market. Yet crop conditions improved slightly rather than deteriorating. The good-to-excellent rating increased 1 percentage point to 57%, while the Brugler500 index remained unchanged at 347. That combination creates an interesting setup for futures. Harvest is progressing quickly, but there is no major deterioration in crop quality currently forcing prices lower. Instead, traders are increasingly waiting to see how large the actual harvested supply will be and whether demand can absorb it. Export Demand Remains Surprisingly Resilient US corn export inspections totalled 1.525 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 60.06 million bushels, during the week ending September 10. Shipments were 8.91% below the previous week and just 0.54% below the same week last year. That year-on-year comparison is important. Despite the weekly decline, US corn exports are effectively tracking last year's pace at the beginning of the new marketing year. Mexico was the largest destination, taking 478,113 tonnes, followed by South Korea with 275,525 tonnes and Japan with 207,502 tonnes. Total marketing-year shipments have reached approximately 2.174 million tonnes, or 85.57 million bushels, during the first 10 days. That is only 0.46% below the comparable period last year. For the bulls, maintaining export demand while the US harvest expands would provide an important counterweight to seasonal harvest pressure. Corn Futures Firm Across the Curve ContractCloseChangeDec 2026 Corn$5.33¼+3¢Nearby Cash$4.87+3¼¢Mar 2027 Corn$5.48+2½¢May 2027 Corn$5.55¼+2¼¢ The positive move across the curve indicates that Monday's strength was not simply a short-term reaction in the expiring September contract. September corn itself expired at $5.12, up 1¾ cents. Brazil's Next Crop Is Already Ahead of Schedule Brazil's 2026/27 first corn crop was estimated at 22% planted as of Thursday. That compares with 17% at the same stage last year. Brazil therefore enters the new production cycle with planting progress ahead of the previous season. For US corn producers, Brazil represents an increasingly important competitor in global export markets. Faster planting does not guarantee a larger crop, but it increases the potential for South American supply to compete with US-origin corn later in the marketing year. Weather will become the next major variable. Ukraine Adds More Potential Global Supply Ukraine is also contributing to the changing global supply outlook. APK-Inform raised its estimate for the country's 2026/27 corn crop by 2.5 million tonnes to 32.3 million tonnes. It also expects Ukrainian corn exports to reach approximately 22 million tonnes for the marketing year. That is a meaningful increase in potential export availability and could add further competition to the global market. The bigger picture is therefore becoming more balanced: US demand remains firm, but Brazil and Ukraine are pointing toward substantial international supply. Harvest Pressure Versus Demand The central question for corn now is whether the market can maintain prices as US harvest activity accelerates. Historically, increasing physical availability during harvest can put pressure on futures as producers deliver grain and commercial inventories begin to rebuild. But the current export numbers provide a degree of protection. If US shipments continue to run close to last year's pace, the market may absorb the incoming crop more comfortably than a purely supply-driven outlook would suggest. Conversely, any significant slowdown in export sales or inspections could leave futures more vulnerable as harvest expands. What Traders Are Watching Next The key factors for corn traders are now: US harvest: currently 8% complete. Crop maturity: 42% mature, with 86% dented. Crop conditions: improved to 57% good/excellent. US exports: running only 0.46% below last year's pace. Mexico: remains the largest immediate destination. Brazil: planting ahead of last year's pace. Ukraine: crop estimate increased to 32.3 million tonnes. Harvest pressure: likely to become increasingly important through the next several weeks. Currency Hedger View Corn is another US-dollar-denominated commodity where currency movements can influence international demand. For overseas buyers, the effective cost of US corn depends not only on the futures price but also on the exchange rate against the US dollar. That makes the dollar an important variable as US exporters compete with Brazilian, Ukrainian and other origins. A stronger dollar can reduce the purchasing power of foreign buyers and make US corn less competitive internationally, while a weaker dollar can improve the economics of US-origin supply. Currency Hedger, the FX division of Octalas Group, therefore sees the corn market as a combination of commodity-price risk and currency exposure for producers, exporters, importers and other participants operating across borders. With Brazil and Ukraine becoming increasingly important competitors, movements in major agricultural-market currencies could become more significant in determining relative export competitiveness. Today Markets View Monday's gains suggest the corn market is not yet overwhelmed by incoming US harvest supply. The biggest positive signal is that US export shipments remain remarkably close to last year's level despite the beginning of a new marketing year. At the same time, the supply side is becoming more significant. US harvest is advancing, Brazil is planting ahead of last year's pace and Ukraine has raised its production outlook. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Corn is entering the part of the season where supply becomes increasingly visible, but demand has so far held up well. The critical question is whether export demand can remain strong enough to absorb the US harvest while Brazil and Ukraine add further competition to global supply.” Bottom Line Corn futures began the week higher, with December corn closing at $5.33¼, up 3 cents. The market is benefiting from resilient export demand, with early marketing-year shipments running almost level with last year's pace. However, the supply picture is becoming increasingly important. US harvest is already 8% complete, Brazil's planting campaign is ahead of schedule and Ukraine has raised its production estimate. For now, the market appears balanced between seasonal harvest pressure and surprisingly durable demand. The next several weeks should reveal whether that balance can hold as significantly more US corn reaches the physical market. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Soybeans Rebound as Export Demand and Domestic Crushing Offer Fresh Support

Today Markets Analysis: Soybean futures recovered on Monday, with contracts gaining between 5 and 9¾ cents, as traders weighed improving harvest progress against stronger export shipments and expectations for continued domestic crushing demand. The rebound comes as the US crop moves further into harvest, while export flows remain below last year's pace and the market looks ahead to fresh domestic processing data. Soybean Futures Recover Across the Curve November soybeans led the move higher, closing at $13.04¼, up 7¾ cents. January futures added 8¼ cents, while March gained 9¼ cents, suggesting the buying interest extended beyond the nearby contract. ContractCloseChangeNov 2026 Soybeans$13.04¼+7¾¢Jan 2027 Soybeans$13.20¼+8¼¢Mar 2027 Soybeans$13.28+9¼¢Nearby Cash$12.45¼+7¾¢ Soymeal also strengthened, with futures rising around 40 cents, while soybean oil gained between 35 and 56 points. The broad-based strength across the soybean complex indicates that Monday's move was not confined to beans themselves, with meal and oil both contributing to the firmer tone. Harvest Is Advancing Ahead of Average The latest US Crop Progress figures showed 44% of the soybean crop had dropped leaves, while harvest reached 6% complete. That compares with a historical average of just 3%, confirming that the US crop is moving into the harvest window relatively quickly. Crop condition ratings were unchanged at 58% good/excellent, while the Brugler500 index remained at 353. For the market, the combination creates a mixed fundamental picture. Faster harvesting increases the amount of physical supply becoming available, but stable crop conditions do not indicate a significant deterioration in yield potential. Export Shipments Improve, but China Remains Critical US soybean export shipments increased sharply on the previous week, reaching 672,750 metric tonnes for the week ending September 10. That was 44.8% higher week-on-week, although shipments remained 18.2% below the same week last year. China accounted for almost half of the weekly total, taking 328,245 tonnes. Indonesia followed with 74,200 tonnes, while Japan received 65,070 tonnes. Marketing-year shipments have reached approximately 914,826 tonnes, still 15.8% below the comparable period last year. This leaves China at the centre of the soybean demand story. Stronger Chinese buying could provide an important catalyst for US prices, particularly as the American harvest increases available supply. NOPA Crush Data Becomes the Next Test Traders will turn to Tuesday's NOPA report for confirmation of domestic processing demand. The market is looking for soybean crushings of approximately 211.55 million bushels, alongside soybean oil stocks estimated at around 1.257 billion pounds. A stronger-than-expected crush number would reinforce the argument that domestic demand is absorbing a meaningful portion of the incoming harvest. Conversely, a weaker result could put renewed emphasis on export demand and the pace at which the US crop is entering storage. New Crush Capacity Highlights Long-Term Demand CHS also announced plans for a new soybean crushing facility in Evansville, Wisconsin, with annual capacity of approximately 80 million bushels. The facility is targeted for completion in autumn 2028. While the project has little immediate influence on the current futures contract, it reinforces the longer-term expansion of US soybean processing capacity. The additional capacity reflects growing demand for soybean meal and vegetable oil and could gradually increase the importance of domestic crushing relative to raw-bean exports. Brazil's New Crop Is Only Beginning Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting campaign has barely started, with AgRural estimating planting at just 0.4% as of Thursday. That means the South American crop remains a major future supply variable rather than an immediate source of pressure. Weather across Brazil will become increasingly important as planting accelerates. A strong Brazilian crop would increase global supply competition later in the marketing cycle, while weather problems could tighten the international balance sheet. What Traders Are Watching Next The soybean market now has several competing forces: US harvest: 6% complete, ahead of the historical pace. Crop conditions: 58% good/excellent and unchanged. Exports: improving week-on-week but still below last year's level. China: remains the dominant destination for US shipments. NOPA crush: expected to provide the next major demand signal. Soybean oil and meal: both strengthening alongside beans. Brazil: planting has barely begun, leaving weather risk ahead. The key question is whether improving domestic and export demand can offset the additional physical supply arriving from the US harvest. Currency Hedger View For international soybean trade, the US dollar remains an important secondary driver. Soybeans are priced globally in dollars, meaning movements in the dollar can materially change the effective cost for overseas buyers even when the underlying futures price is unchanged. The latest export figures highlight why currency matters. With China accounting for 328,245 tonnes of weekly US soybean shipments, changes in the USD/CNY exchange rate can influence purchasing economics and the competitiveness of US supplies against South American alternatives. From a Currency Hedger perspective, the soybean market therefore needs to be viewed through both commodity and FX lenses. A stronger dollar can make US-origin soybeans more expensive for foreign buyers, while a softer dollar can improve international purchasing power and support export competitiveness. For producers, exporters and agricultural businesses with future dollar receipts or payments, managing the currency exposure can be almost as important as managing the underlying soybean price. Today Markets View Monday's rebound is encouraging for soybean bulls, but the market still faces a significant supply test as the US harvest accelerates. The most constructive element is the combination of stronger weekly shipments, firm domestic crushing expectations and continued demand for soybean meal and oil. However, export volumes remain below last year's pace, while the US crop is entering harvest faster than average. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Soybeans are entering a critical period where supply is becoming increasingly visible, but demand is still capable of absorbing a significant portion of that production. The next move will depend heavily on whether exports and domestic crushing can keep pace with the harvest.” Bottom Line Soybeans started the week on firmer footing, with November futures rising 7¾ cents to $13.04¼. The market is being supported by stronger weekly export shipments, expectations for solid domestic crushing and strength across the wider soybean complex. But the bullish case faces a clear test: US harvest progress is already running ahead of average, while total marketing-year exports remain below last year's pace. With NOPA crush data due next and Brazil's new crop cycle only beginning, traders have several major demand and supply signals to assess before deciding whether Monday's rebound can develop into a broader recovery. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Cattle Surge as Tight Cash Supplies Drive Futures Higher

Today Markets Analysis: Cattle futures started the week sharply higher, with live cattle and feeder cattle contracts posting broad gains as stronger cash prices and a powerful move in the feeder market reinforced expectations of continued strength across the US cattle complex. Live cattle futures gained between $2.07 and $2.92, while feeder cattle led the move with gains of as much as $5.75. The rally comes as last week's cash trade moved higher and the CME Feeder Cattle Index posted one of its strongest recent daily advances, pointing to a market where available cattle remain valuable. Cash Cattle Sets a Stronger Floor Last week's cash cattle sales were reported at $222-$225, between $1 and $6 higher than the previous week. That is an important signal for futures because the cash market remains the fundamental anchor for live cattle pricing. With negotiated prices moving higher, traders appear increasingly willing to price deferred contracts at elevated levels rather than assume an immediate reversal. The December live cattle contract closed at $225.150, up $2.925, putting it firmly above the top end of last week's reported cash range. Feeder Cattle Takes the Lead The feeder market delivered the strongest move of the session. The CME Feeder Cattle Index jumped $10.49 on September 11 to $341.71, while the September feeder contract finished Monday at $343.575, up $5.750. The weekly Oklahoma City feeder cattle auction provided further confirmation of the strength in the physical market. Sales involving approximately 5,800 head saw steers rise $15-$25 and heifers increase $15-$20. That is a significant move and suggests buyers remain aggressive despite already elevated cattle prices. Pasture Conditions Improve The latest Crop Progress data showed US pasture conditions improving modestly. The proportion of pasture rated good or excellent increased to 19%, up one percentage point on the week, while the Brugler500 index climbed 5 points to 248. The improvement is constructive for producers because better pasture conditions can help support cattle weights and reduce some feeding pressure. However, the overall pasture rating remains low, meaning the improvement does not necessarily translate into an immediate increase in market-ready cattle. Boxed Beef Sends a Mixed Signal The wholesale beef market was less uniformly bullish. Choice boxed beef prices fell 63 cents to $375.31, while Select increased $1.42 to $354.55. That narrowed the Choice-Select spread to $20.76. The mixed wholesale performance suggests downstream beef demand is not accelerating at the same pace as the cash cattle market. For futures traders, this creates an important question: how long can cattle prices continue climbing if wholesale values fail to follow? For now, the strength of the cash and feeder markets appears to be outweighing that concern. Slaughter Volumes Remain Important USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter at approximately 106,000 head on Monday. That was substantially above the previous week, although the comparison was affected by the holiday schedule. Importantly, Monday's slaughter was still 3,967 head below the same week last year. That year-on-year reduction matters because tighter slaughter availability can help support finished-cattle prices, particularly when demand remains firm. Live Cattle and Feeder Futures ContractCloseDaily ChangeOctober 2026 Live Cattle$222.250+$2.575December 2026 Live Cattle$225.150+$2.925February 2027 Live Cattle$226.300+$2.300September 2026 Feeder Cattle$343.575+$5.750October 2026 Feeder Cattle$337.850+$5.350November 2026 Feeder Cattle$332.775+$4.600 The futures structure remains elevated, but the feeder market is clearly showing greater momentum. The sharp rise in the Feeder Cattle Index is particularly significant because it indicates that the strength is not confined to speculative futures trading — physical cattle are commanding substantially higher prices as well. What Traders Are Watching Next The cattle market now enters a period where several indicators will determine whether Monday's rally can extend: Cash cattle prices — further gains would strengthen the bullish futures narrative. Feeder cattle values — continued strength would signal that buyers remain aggressive. Pasture conditions — improving grass could influence producer decisions and cattle weights. Boxed beef prices — wholesale demand needs to keep pace with rising live-cattle values. Weekly slaughter numbers — year-on-year declines remain supportive if they persist. Cattle placements and marketings — upcoming supply data will be critical for assessing availability into the final quarter. Currency Hedger View Cattle is primarily a US-dollar-denominated market, meaning currency movements can influence the economics of international beef trade even when the underlying futures market is being driven by domestic US supply conditions. A stronger dollar can make US beef more expensive for overseas buyers, potentially creating a headwind for export demand. For international meat traders and businesses purchasing or selling US-dollar-denominated agricultural commodities, the combination of cattle prices and FX exposure therefore becomes important. Currency Hedger, the FX division of Octalas Group, considers currency risk alongside commodity exposure particularly relevant when physical contracts extend across multiple settlement dates. Today Markets View Monday's cattle rally has a stronger fundamental foundation than a simple futures-market momentum move. Cash cattle prices have moved higher, feeder values have surged and the CME Feeder Cattle Index jumped more than $10 in a single session. At the same time, year-on-year slaughter remains lower, suggesting the supply of market-ready cattle continues to provide underlying price support. The main warning sign is the wholesale beef market. Choice boxed beef fell, while Select gained, indicating that end-market pricing is not moving uniformly higher. That leaves the cattle market at an important point: tight supply and strong cash prices are currently dominating, but wholesale demand will need to validate increasingly expensive cattle. “The strength in feeder cattle is particularly significant because it shows that buyers are still prepared to pay substantially more for available supply. The next test is whether wholesale beef demand can catch up with the rapidly rising cattle complex.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Cattle began the week with a powerful rally, led by feeder cattle and supported by stronger cash prices. The CME Feeder Cattle Index jumped $10.49, while Oklahoma City auction prices rose as much as $25 per head depending on category. With live cattle also trading firmly above last week's cash levels, the immediate market bias remains bullish. However, the rally is moving into a more demanding phase. Wholesale beef prices and consumer demand will need to remain supportive if futures are to sustain these elevated levels. For now, the combination of strong cash markets, tight availability and lower year-on-year slaughter keeps the cattle market firmly supported. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Cotton Slides as US Harvest Progress and Stronger Dollar Weigh on Prices

Today Markets Analysis: Cotton futures came under renewed pressure Monday as the market weighed improving US crop conditions, advancing harvest activity and a firmer US dollar against signs that physical cotton supplies remain relatively tight. The October contract fell 174 points to 80.64 cents per pound, while December cotton dropped 151 points to 84.55 cents. March 2027 futures also weakened, closing 144 points lower at 87.12 cents. The decline came despite crude oil rising $1.84 per barrel, an important factor for cotton because higher energy prices can increase production and transportation costs. The stronger dollar, however, provided a more direct headwind by making US agricultural commodities less competitive internationally. US Crop Progress Points to Increasing Supply The latest USDA crop-progress data showed 57% of the US cotton crop had reached the boll-opening stage as of Sunday, while 8% had already been harvested. More importantly for the market, crop conditions improved. The share of the crop rated good or excellent rose to 36%, up two percentage points from the previous week. The Brugler500 index was unchanged at 298, although the percentage rated poor or very poor increased by two points. The numbers suggest the US crop is continuing to move toward harvest with conditions broadly stable to improving. That creates a growing supply narrative for traders, particularly if favourable weather allows more cotton to reach harvest without significant quality losses. Certified Stocks Remain a Counterweight The supply picture is not entirely bearish. ICE-certified cotton stocks fell by 3,164 bales on September 11, leaving certified inventories at just 38,462 bales. That remains a relatively tight level of immediately deliverable exchange-certified cotton and provides an important counterweight to the improving US crop outlook. The Cotlook A Index also increased 100 points to 98.20 cents per pound on Friday, indicating that physical-market pricing remains considerably firmer than the futures market. The divergence between futures weakness and physical-market values is something traders will be watching closely. Dollar Strength Adds Pressure The US Dollar Index gained 0.609 points Monday. For a US-exported commodity such as cotton, a stronger dollar can become a headwind because it raises the effective cost for overseas buyers using other currencies. This is particularly relevant as the cotton market enters a period when export demand must compete with increasing availability from the US harvest. For international buyers, the currency component can therefore influence purchasing decisions even when underlying physical demand remains steady. Adjusted World Price Falls The Adjusted World Price was reduced by 441 points from the previous week to 69.51 cents per pound. The lower AWP adds another indication that global pricing conditions remain challenging despite the tightness visible in ICE-certified stocks. The market is therefore caught between two opposing forces: near-term physical tightness and the prospect of increasing US supply as harvest accelerates. Cotton Futures ContractCloseDaily ChangeOctober 202680.64¢/lb-174 pointsDecember 202684.55¢/lb-151 pointsMarch 202787.12¢/lb-144 points The futures curve continues to price higher levels further out, with March 2027 trading roughly 6.5 cents above October. That structure suggests traders are not pricing an immediate collapse in cotton values, even though nearby contracts are facing harvest-related pressure. What Traders Are Watching Next The next phase of the cotton market will depend heavily on whether the improving US crop narrative translates into actual harvested supply. Key factors include: US harvest progress and whether favourable weather accelerates fieldwork. Crop condition revisions as the harvest approaches. ICE-certified stocks, which remain historically important at current levels. US export demand as international buyers assess competing origins. The US dollar, particularly if broader monetary policy expectations continue supporting the currency. Crude oil prices, which influence production costs and the relative economics of cotton versus competing crops. A sustained improvement in US harvest data could keep pressure on nearby futures. Conversely, continued tightness in certified stocks or stronger export demand could limit the downside. Currency Hedger View For global cotton merchants, textile manufacturers and other participants with exposure to US-dollar-denominated commodity purchases, the currency market is becoming an increasingly important part of the equation. The stronger US dollar is currently working against cotton futures, but its impact extends beyond the futures market. Importers purchasing cotton in dollars can see their effective procurement costs rise even when the underlying commodity price is falling. This creates a situation where cotton price risk and FX risk need to be considered together. Currency Hedger, the FX division of Octalas Group, sees currency exposure as an important variable for businesses managing international commodity purchases, particularly where contracted cotton prices and settlement dates extend across several months. Today Markets View Monday's decline looks more like a market adjusting to the approaching US harvest than a fundamental breakdown in cotton demand. The improvement in crop conditions and growing harvested acreage provide a credible reason for futures to come under pressure, while the stronger dollar adds another layer of resistance. However, ICE-certified stocks of only 38,462 bales show that the physical market is not awash with readily deliverable cotton. The key question is therefore whether incoming harvest supply can overwhelm that tightness. If harvest conditions remain favourable, cotton could face further pressure in the near term. But if export demand strengthens or physical stocks remain constrained, the downside may prove limited. “Cotton is entering the point in the cycle where expectations of new supply begin to compete directly with physical-market tightness. The next few weeks of harvest and export data will be critical in determining which side ultimately wins.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Bottom Line Cotton futures started the week under pressure as US harvest progress, improving crop conditions and a stronger dollar outweighed the supportive influence of higher crude oil and still-low certified stocks. The market is approaching a critical transition: from concerns about available supply toward the reality of the new US crop. For now, the bias is cautious, but 38,462 bales of ICE-certified stocks means the supply picture is far from comfortable. The next major signal will come from the pace and quality of the US harvest — and whether international demand is strong enough to absorb the additional supply. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Sugar Holds Near Recent Highs as Global Supply Outlook Tightens

Today Markets Analysis: Sugar prices remained close to recent highs on Monday as the market continued to digest a tightening global supply outlook, with production risks in major growing regions increasingly offsetting the large crop and surplus expected for the current season. October NY world sugar #11 finished 0.06% higher, while October London white sugar gained 0.32%. The modest gains came after a much stronger rally last week, when New York sugar reached a 17-month high. The market is now consolidating those gains rather than reversing them, with higher crude oil prices providing an additional source of support. Crude Oil Is Changing the Sugar-Ethanol Equation One of the most important factors supporting sugar prices is the sharp rise in crude oil. WTI crude reached a 3¾-month high, increasing the economic incentive for Brazilian mills to allocate more sugarcane toward ethanol production rather than crystal sugar. That matters because Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. When ethanol becomes more profitable relative to sugar, mills can reduce the amount of cane processed into sugar. Even a relatively small shift in the Brazilian production mix can have a significant impact on global availability. The relationship between crude oil and sugar has therefore become increasingly important as energy prices remain elevated. The 2026/27 Market Could Move Into Deficit The biggest change in the sugar story is occurring in the outlook for the next season. The International Sugar Organization now expects a 200,000-metric-ton global deficit in 2026/27, compared with a projected 1.1 million-ton surplus in 2025/26. That represents a substantial shift in the supply balance. Other analysts are even more bearish. StoneX has projected a 1.7 million-ton deficit for 2026/27, while Covrig Analytics expects a deficit of approximately 300,000 tons. The estimates vary considerably, but the direction is increasingly consistent: the global sugar balance is expected to tighten. Thailand Faces a Significant Production Decline Thailand is another major reason for the changing supply outlook. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp expects 2026/27 production to fall approximately 17% to 10 million tons. Thailand is the world's second-largest sugar exporter, meaning a significant decline in its crop could have consequences well beyond the domestic market. Czarnikow has also warned of longer-term supply pressure, forecasting a 2.9 million-ton global deficit in 2027/28. It expects global production to fall 0.7% to 177 million tons, with weather disruptions in India, the European Union and Thailand contributing to the decline. India's Monsoon Creates Another Supply Risk India's weather outlook is becoming increasingly important. The India Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 15% below normal as of September 9. Although that represents a substantial improvement from the 42% deficit recorded on June 30, rainfall remains below normal. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, making monsoon conditions critical to the country's agricultural output. India's Earth Science Ministry has also warned that this year's monsoon could become the country's weakest in 11 years. The supply implications are already being reflected in government policy. India has authorised up to 1 million metric tons of raw sugar imports without taxes through October 31. That is notable because India is traditionally a major sugar exporter. A return to meaningful imports indicates that domestic supply conditions are becoming sufficiently tight to warrant intervention. Brazil's Production Is Also Under Pressure Brazil is providing another bullish signal. Unica reported that Center-South sugar production fell 26.3% year-on-year to 3.903 million tons in June. The decline is particularly significant given Brazil's importance to the global market. At the same time, higher crude prices are increasing the incentive for Brazilian mills to divert more cane toward ethanol. This creates a potentially powerful combination for sugar: Lower cane availability + weaker sugar production + stronger ethanol economics. If crude oil remains elevated, the incentive to maximise ethanol output could become an increasingly important price driver. El Niño Adds Another Layer of Risk Weather is becoming the biggest uncertainty in the medium-term sugar outlook. The developing El Niño pattern could reduce rainfall across some of the world's most important sugar-producing regions, including Brazil, India and Thailand. The US Climate Prediction Center has warned that the current El Niño could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. That creates the possibility of simultaneous production pressure across several major origins. For a market already moving toward a projected global deficit, another significant weather disruption could rapidly tighten the balance further. Not All Supply Data Is Bullish The longer-term bullish narrative needs to be balanced against the current-season outlook. The International Sugar Organization expects 2025/26 global production to reach a record 182 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year. It still expects a 1.1 million-ton surplus for the current season. The USDA also forecasts substantial global availability, although its 2026/27 projections point toward lower production. The USDA expects global 2026/27 sugar production to fall approximately 6.5% to 184.854 million tons. At the same time, human consumption is expected to increase 0.4% to a record 179.991 million tons. This means the market is transitioning from a period of relatively comfortable supply toward a potentially tighter environment. Sugar Market FactorImpact2025/26 global productionBearish2025/26 global surplusBearish2026/27 global deficit forecastsBullishBrazilian sugar productionBullishHigher crude oilBullishThailand production outlookBullishWeak Indian monsoonBullishEl Niño riskBullishRising global consumptionBullish The Market Is Pricing the Next Crop This distinction between the current and next seasons is becoming increasingly important. The market is not simply trading today's sugar availability. Instead, traders are increasingly looking ahead toward the 2026/27 crop cycle, where production forecasts are deteriorating across several major origins. That helps explain why sugar can remain near multi-month highs despite the current season still carrying a surplus. The market is effectively beginning to price the possibility that today's comfortable supply conditions will not persist. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major catalysts will include Brazilian cane crushing data, ethanol production, crude oil prices and the progress of the Indian monsoon. Thailand's crop estimates will also remain important, particularly if production expectations continue to deteriorate. Traders will also be watching for evidence that El Niño is beginning to affect rainfall patterns across Brazil, India and Thailand. The key question is whether the emerging 2026/27 deficit becomes large enough to justify another leg higher or whether the current-season surplus continues to cap prices. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger, the FX division of Octalas Group, sees currency movements as an important secondary factor for the sugar market, particularly through USD/BRL. Brazil is the world's dominant sugar exporter, meaning changes in the Brazilian real can influence producer economics and export incentives. A weaker real can increase the local-currency value of dollar-denominated sugar revenues and potentially encourage Brazilian producers to sell more aggressively. A stronger real can reduce that incentive. The interaction between crude oil, ethanol margins, USD/BRL and Brazilian sugar exports therefore remains an important component of the global sugar balance. Today Markets View Sugar's recent rally has moved beyond a simple speculative bounce. The market is increasingly responding to a fundamental shift in the expected supply balance. The current season still offers plenty of supply, but forecasts for 2026/27 are becoming progressively tighter, with the ISO forecasting a deficit and StoneX projecting an even larger shortfall. At the same time, Brazil faces pressure from lower production and stronger ethanol economics, Thailand is expected to produce substantially less sugar, India's monsoon remains below normal and El Niño presents a significant weather risk. That does not guarantee a sustained rally. But it does mean the market has a credible fundamental reason to remain close to its recent highs. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Sugar is increasingly becoming a story about what comes next rather than what is available today. The current season still carries a surplus, but the projected shift toward deficit in 2026/27, combined with Brazil's ethanol economics and weather risks across Asia, gives the market a much stronger bullish foundation.” Bottom Line Sugar prices are consolidating near recent highs as traders assess an increasingly uncertain supply outlook. The 2025/26 market remains relatively well supplied, but expectations for 2026/27 are moving toward deficit, with production risks emerging across Brazil, Thailand and India. Higher crude oil prices could further tighten availability by encouraging Brazilian mills to favour ethanol over sugar. For now, the market is holding its gains rather than accelerating higher. But if production estimates continue to deteriorate and weather risks intensify, the current consolidation could ultimately become a platform for another move higher. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Coffee Market Snaps Three-Week Slide as Short Covering Sparks Rebound

Today Markets Analysis: Coffee prices staged a sharp recovery on Monday as short covering and technical buying interrupted a three-week decline, giving the market its first meaningful bounce after heavy selling pressure. December arabica coffee gained 1.68%, while November robusta rose 0.28%. The rebound came after arabica initially fell to a 2½-month low, with traders still digesting a powerful combination of record Brazilian exports, expectations for abundant global supplies and improving production prospects. The immediate recovery is therefore less about a sudden improvement in coffee fundamentals and more about a market that had become heavily oversold. Brazilian Supply Continues to Weigh on Prices Brazil remains at the centre of the bearish supply story. Cecafe reported that Brazil exported 4.155 million bags of coffee in August, up 31% year-on-year and the highest August total on record. Arabica exports increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazilian supply is reaching international markets rapidly as the country's harvest approaches completion. The Trade Ministry also reported that August coffee exports rose 44.6% year-on-year to 206,618 metric tons, the strongest monthly result in eight months. For the market, this means the physical supply pipeline remains strong even after the recent price decline. Record Global Production Changes the Bigger Picture The International Coffee Organization has added to the bearish outlook by forecasting a record global coffee crop for 2025/26. Production is expected to reach 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year-on-year, while consumption is projected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That would leave the global market with a 3 million-bag surplus, marking the first surplus in five years. The shift from deficit to surplus is potentially important for prices because it reduces the urgency for commercial buyers to compete for available supply. Weather Could Still Disrupt the Bearish Story The supply outlook is not entirely straightforward. Rainfall across Brazil has increased dramatically, potentially improving flowering conditions for the next crop. Somar Meteorologia reported 59.4 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ending September 13, equivalent to 1,212% of the historical average. That is currently a bearish signal because favourable moisture can support the development of Brazil's next crop. However, the weather outlook remains highly uncertain. The developing El Niño pattern could alter rainfall patterns during the critical September and October flowering period, potentially creating new production risks. That leaves coffee traders facing a delicate balance: abundant supply expectations today versus weather uncertainty for the next crop. Vietnam Keeps Pressure on Robusta Robusta faces its own supply challenge. Vietnam's coffee exports rose 13.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million metric tons during January-August 2026. The country's 2025 exports also increased 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise approximately 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, or around 29.4 million bags. That improving supply picture helped drive robusta to a three-month low earlier this month. The inventory data reinforces the difference between the two coffee markets. Arabica Inventories Offer a Bullish Counterweight Despite the broader supply story, arabica has one significant bullish factor: inventories. ICE arabica stocks fell to just 217,932 bags last Friday, their lowest level in 27 years. That suggests that while production forecasts may be improving, immediately available certified arabica remains exceptionally tight. Robusta tells the opposite story. ICE robusta inventories climbed to 5,043 lots on Monday, the highest level in approximately nine and a half months. This divergence could become increasingly important if physical demand strengthens. FactorArabicaRobustaMonday move+1.68%+0.28%ICE inventories27-year low9.5-month highSupply outlookImprovingIncreasingMain bullish riskWeather / El NiñoLimitedMain bearish factorBrazil exportsVietnam supply The Short-Covering Rally Matters Monday's recovery needs to be viewed in the context of the previous three weeks. Coffee had fallen far enough to push speculative positioning into extremely oversold territory. That created an opportunity for funds to lock in profits on short positions. Short covering can generate powerful rebounds even when the fundamental outlook has not changed. That appears to be the principal driver behind Monday's move. The important test now is whether fresh buyers enter the market or whether the rebound simply gives bearish traders an opportunity to rebuild short positions at higher levels. USDA Forecast Keeps the Long-Term Supply Outlook Bearish The latest USDA projections reinforce the possibility of a much larger global coffee supply base. The agency expects 2026/27 global coffee production to increase 6% to a record 189.7 million bags. Arabica production is forecast to rise 12%, while robusta production is expected to decline slightly. Global ending stocks are also projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Brazil is again the major contributor, with the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service forecasting a record 71.9 million-bag Brazilian crop, up 14% year-on-year. If those forecasts are realised, coffee could face a substantially more comfortable supply environment over the coming year. What Traders Are Watching Next The market now needs to prove whether Monday's recovery has genuine follow-through. Key indicators include: Brazilian export volumes as the current harvest enters the international market. ICE arabica inventories, which remain exceptionally low. Vietnamese exports and production, particularly for robusta. Brazilian rainfall and flowering conditions. The developing El Niño pattern and its impact on South American and Asian crops. Speculative positioning following the recent three-week selloff. The biggest short-term question is whether the market has completed its correction or whether Monday's rally is simply a pause within a larger bearish trend. Currency Hedger View Currency Hedger, the FX division of Octalas Group, sees the Brazilian real as an important secondary variable for coffee markets. Brazilian producers receive export revenues in US dollars while much of their cost base is denominated in Brazilian reais. Movements in USD/BRL can therefore influence the incentive to sell coffee into international markets. A weaker real can make dollar-denominated coffee revenues more attractive in local-currency terms, potentially encouraging producer selling. A stronger real can have the opposite effect. This makes the interaction between Brazilian coffee prices, USD/BRL and export flows an important consideration for traders assessing how quickly Brazilian supply reaches the global market. Today Markets View Monday's rebound should not yet be interpreted as a fundamental reversal. The market remains confronted by a powerful bearish supply narrative: record Brazilian exports, rising Vietnamese supply, a projected global surplus and expectations for record production in 2026/27. But the extreme tightness in certified arabica inventories means the downside is not without risk. With ICE arabica stocks at a 27-year low, any disruption to Brazilian production or deterioration in flowering conditions could quickly change the balance. For now, the most convincing explanation for Monday's move is technical short covering following an aggressive three-week decline. The next phase will depend on whether fundamental buyers return — or whether improving global supply continues to dominate the market. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Coffee has bounced because the market became technically stretched, but the fundamental picture has not yet turned bullish. The key issue is whether exceptionally low arabica inventories and weather risk can offset the increasingly comfortable global production outlook.” Bottom Line Coffee's latest rebound is a reminder that heavily sold commodity markets can recover sharply even without an immediate change in fundamentals. The bigger battle remains between record supply expectations and unusually tight arabica inventories. Brazilian exports and next year's crop prospects currently favour the bears, while El Niño and the exceptionally low arabica inventory position provide the bulls with their strongest arguments. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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September 15, 2026

Cocoa Rises as Ghana Crop Risks Offset Growing West African Supplies

Today Markets Analysis: Cocoa prices moved higher on Monday as concerns over Ghana's upcoming crop and deteriorating crop quality in West Africa outweighed evidence of stronger current supplies from the Ivory Coast. December New York cocoa futures settled 1.04% higher, while December London cocoa gained 1.20%, with the market continuing to balance potentially tighter future production against increasingly comfortable near-term inventories. Ghana Farmer Payments Could Tighten Supply One of the key bullish developments is coming from Ghana. The country's cocoa regulator has proposed increasing farmer payments by 6% for the 2026/27 season. Higher producer prices could encourage farmers to hold back beans while waiting for more favourable selling opportunities, potentially reducing the amount of cocoa reaching the market in the short term. More importantly, Ghana's longer-term production outlook remains concerning. The Cocoa Board has estimated that the 2026/27 crop could fall to around 650,000 metric tons, down from approximately 750,000 tons in the previous season. A separate projection from COCOBOD has placed potential production even lower, at 450,000–550,000 tons, citing swollen shoot disease, ageing farms and the potential impact of adverse weather. Ivory Coast Is Providing a Powerful Bearish Counterweight The supply picture is considerably stronger in the Ivory Coast. Farmers had shipped approximately 2.14 million metric tons of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025 and September 13, 2026, an increase of 18% from the same period a year earlier. The country's regulator has also reported production of approximately 2.06 million tons between June 2025 and June 2026, up around 30% from the previous season. That creates an important distinction for cocoa traders. The current supply situation is relatively comfortable, while concerns are increasingly focused on the 2026/27 crop. Cocoa Inventories Are Also Rising Exchange inventories provide another bearish signal. ICE cocoa stocks reached a two-year high of 3.44 million bags on September 4. Although inventories have eased slightly, they remained elevated at around 3.42 million bags on Monday. Higher inventories indicate that physical availability is currently much less constrained than it was during the extreme supply shortage that drove cocoa prices to record highs. Barry Callebaut, the world's largest cocoa processor, recently described the global cocoa market as well supplied, suggesting the industry is better positioned to absorb supply disruptions than it was during the 2023/24 El Niño period. Weather and Crop Quality Remain the Biggest Bullish Risk Despite strong current supplies, weather is keeping the longer-term cocoa outlook uncertain. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine across parts of the Ivory Coast and Ghana are increasing the risk of black pod disease, which can reduce bean quality. Early assessments of the next Ivory Coast crop have also shown weak cherelle formation and poor pod development. Current estimates suggest Ivory Coast's 2026/27 production could average around 1.8 million tons, approximately 18% below the estimated 2.2 million tons produced during the previous season. That potential decline is one of the main reasons cocoa prices have remained supported despite rising inventories. Global Surplus Expectations Are Falling Several industry forecasts have also become more supportive. StoneX recently reduced its estimate for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to just 25,000 tons, down sharply from its previous forecast of 149,000 tons. Transgraph Consulting expects the global surplus to shrink to approximately 80,000 tons, compared with 415,000 tons in 2025/26. The underlying message is clear: the current market may be well supplied, but the expected surplus is becoming considerably smaller. Cocoa Market Balance FactorMarket ImpactGhana crop forecastBullishGhana farmer payment increasePotentially bullishIvory Coast shipments +18%BearishIvory Coast production +30%BearishICE inventories near two-year highBearishBlack pod disease riskBullishWeak West African crop developmentBullishPotential El Niño conditionsBullishFalling global surplus forecastsBullishMixed global grindingsNeutral/Mixed Demand Signals Are Mixed Demand is providing little clear direction. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year-on-year in Q2, reaching their lowest level for the second quarter in six years. North America provided a much more positive signal, with grindings rising 7.7% year-on-year. Asian demand was even stronger, with Q2 grindings increasing 25% year-on-year. This creates another important divide in the cocoa market: European demand remains weak, while North American and Asian processing activity is showing considerably greater resilience. Sterling Adds Another Layer for London Cocoa The decline in the British pound also helped support London cocoa prices. Because London cocoa is priced in sterling, a weaker pound can make the commodity relatively more attractive in other currencies and can influence the pricing dynamics of the futures market. Sterling weakness therefore provided an additional short-term catalyst for the move higher in London cocoa. What Traders Are Watching Next Cocoa traders will be focused on several developments: The final outcome of Ghana's farmer-payment policy. Early harvesting data from the Ivory Coast. Weather conditions across West Africa. Evidence of black pod disease and crop-quality deterioration. ICE warehouse inventories. Global cocoa grindings. El Niño developments and their impact on West African weather. Whether the projected 2026/27 global surplus continues to shrink. The key question is whether current strong supplies can offset the possibility of a significantly smaller West African crop next season. Currency Hedger View Currency movements are becoming increasingly relevant to cocoa pricing, particularly for London cocoa, where sterling fluctuations can amplify moves in the futures market. For cocoa producers, processors and international buyers, changes in GBP/USD and West African currencies can affect realised revenues and procurement costs even when the underlying commodity price is unchanged. The current combination of cocoa volatility and uncertain currency conditions reinforces the importance of managing both commodity exposure and FX risk rather than viewing them as separate risks. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Cocoa's latest rally is not simply a reaction to tighter current supply. The market is effectively looking beyond today's strong Ivory Coast production numbers and increasingly focusing on the possibility that 2026/27 supply could deteriorate sharply. That creates a two-sided market. Near-term inventories and strong Ivory Coast shipments argue against another immediate supply crisis, while Ghana's declining production outlook, disease risks and potential El Niño effects provide a powerful medium-term bullish argument. The result is likely to be a market that remains highly sensitive to weather reports, crop surveys and physical supply data. Bottom Line Cocoa prices are rising as traders balance strong current supplies against growing risks to next season's West African crop. Ghana's weaker production outlook, crop-quality concerns and falling global-surplus estimates are providing support, while the Ivory Coast's strong shipments and elevated ICE inventories are limiting the bullish case. For now, the cocoa market remains caught between comfortable present supply and increasingly uncertain future production. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets With contribution from Currency Hedger — currencyhedger.com

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Markets

September 15, 2026

Copper Slides to Seven-Week Low as Supply Concerns Ease

Today Markets Analysis: Copper prices remained under pressure Tuesday, trading near $6.30 per pound and close to seven-week lows as fresh deliveries into London warehouses eased concerns over tight global supply. The retreat follows a sharp rally to record highs last week and highlights how quickly positioning can change when physical availability improves and tariff expectations shift. London Deliveries Ease Supply Concerns Copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange (LME) recorded their largest inflows in almost four weeks. The increase in available metal has pushed London copper prices into contango, a market structure in which forward prices trade above the spot price. That shift is important because it suggests the immediate supply shortage concerns that helped drive copper sharply higher are beginning to moderate. For traders, the question is now whether the latest inventory increase represents a temporary flow adjustment or the beginning of a more sustained improvement in physical availability. Record Highs Give Way to a Sharp Reversal Copper surged to record levels last week as traders redirected shipments towards the United States ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper. The prospect of tariffs created an unusual divergence between regional markets, encouraging traders to move metal into US warehouses and contributing to tighter availability elsewhere. However, copper reversed sharply after reports indicated that the Trump administration had postponed a decision on the tariff issue. That removed some of the urgency behind the inventory build and allowed attention to return to underlying global demand and supply conditions. The Federal Reserve Adds Another Headwind Copper is also facing a broader macroeconomic challenge. Markets are preparing for an expected US Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this week, putting pressure on the wider metals complex. Higher interest rates can weigh on industrial commodities through tighter financial conditions, a potentially stronger US dollar and concerns that economic activity will slow. For copper, which is heavily exposed to global manufacturing and construction activity, the direction of monetary policy is particularly important. China Remains the Key Demand Variable China remains central to the copper outlook because it is the world's largest consumer of the metal. Recent Chinese economic data present a mixed picture. Industrial production expanded more strongly than expected in August, suggesting that manufacturing activity remains relatively resilient. However, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and new-home prices continue to point towards weakness elsewhere in the economy. That creates an important distinction for copper. Strong manufacturing activity can support demand for the metal, but weakness in property and fixed investment can offset some of that support through reduced construction and infrastructure demand. Copper Market Balance FactorCurrent SignalImpact on CopperLME warehouse inflowsIncreasingBearishLondon market structureContangoBearishUS tariff uncertaintyDecision reportedly delayedReduces immediate supply premiumFed policyRate hike expectedBearishChinese industrial productionStronger than expectedSupportiveChinese property/investmentContinued weaknessBearishRecent price actionSharp retreat from record highsBearish near term Is the Supply Story Changing? The biggest issue for copper traders is whether last week's record rally represented a genuine change in the physical market or was amplified by positioning around US tariffs. The latest LME inflows suggest that at least some of the perceived shortage has eased. However, copper remains strategically important to the global economy because of its role in power infrastructure, electrification, renewable energy, construction and industrial manufacturing. That means a temporary increase in warehouse inventories does not necessarily eliminate the longer-term structural demand argument. Instead, the market may now be moving back towards fundamentals after an unusually strong tariff-driven rally. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major signals for copper will include: Further changes in LME warehouse inventories The structure of the London copper futures curve Any decision from Washington on refined copper tariffs The Federal Reserve's rate decision and guidance Chinese property investment Chinese infrastructure spending Manufacturing activity and export demand Developments in global mine supply and smelter availability A sustained rise in inventories combined with continued weakness in Chinese investment would strengthen the bearish case. Conversely, falling inventories and renewed Chinese demand could quickly revive concerns about physical tightness. Currency Hedger View Copper's outlook is also closely linked to the US dollar. A stronger dollar can make dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers, while tighter US monetary policy can increase pressure on emerging-market currencies and global liquidity. For businesses exposed to copper prices through manufacturing, construction or industrial procurement, the combination of commodity-price volatility and currency movements creates an additional layer of risk. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Copper's latest decline should not automatically be interpreted as the end of the broader bullish structural story. The immediate market has changed, however. Last week's rally was heavily influenced by concerns surrounding US tariffs and the movement of refined metal into American warehouses. The latest increase in LME deliveries suggests that some of that supply pressure is now reversing. At the same time, the global macroeconomic environment is becoming less supportive, with tighter US monetary policy expectations and persistent weakness in parts of the Chinese economy. The result is a copper market caught between long-term structural demand and short-term cyclical pressure. Bottom Line Copper has retreated sharply from its record highs as fresh LME deliveries ease supply concerns and uncertainty over US tariffs removes some of the urgency behind the recent rally. The near-term outlook will depend heavily on whether inventories continue to build and whether Chinese investment weakness begins to weigh more heavily on industrial demand. For now, $6.30 per pound marks a significant test of whether the copper rally was driven by genuine physical tightness or by temporary positioning around tariff expectations. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets With contribution from Currency Hedger — currencyhedger.com

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Markets

September 15, 2026

Michael Burry Rebalances His Portfolio: Capitulation or Smarter Risk Management?

Today Markets Analysis: Michael Burry has once again adjusted his portfolio, reigniting debate over whether the investor is backing away from his bearish technology thesis or simply managing the risk of being early. Burry's latest portfolio update, published on September 9, shows reductions in several positions linked to his bearish view on technology and artificial intelligence. The changes are significant, but interpreting them as outright capitulation would be premature. Instead, the latest positioning appears to highlight a more fundamental problem facing any investor betting against expensive growth stocks: being right about valuation is not enough if the timing is wrong. Burry Reduces Some of His AI-Related Shorts One of the clearest changes is a reduction in Burry's bearish exposure to broadly defined technology companies, including stocks closely associated with the AI investment boom. Burry explained on social media that part of the decision was related to the time decay of options. That distinction matters. A put option can eventually become profitable if the underlying stock falls, but the investor still faces the cost of waiting. As expiration approaches, the option loses time value, meaning a bearish investor can be correct about an overvalued company but still lose money if the expected decline arrives too late. Burry nevertheless continues to hold long-dated put positions against Palantir and the QQQ ETF, with expirations extending into 2027. The Bullish Side of Burry's Portfolio Is Equally Interesting Burry's largest disclosed long positions remain concentrated in Lululemon, Molina Healthcare and MercadoLibre. Lululemon is particularly interesting because Burry has been involved in the stock for some time, having built exposure while the shares were already substantially below their previous peak. The investment demonstrates two uncomfortable realities of value investing: A stock can look cheap for a very good reason. A stock that looks cheap can become even cheaper. Burry's thesis is that Lululemon has the potential for a significant recovery, drawing comparisons with companies such as Abercrombie & Fitch and Ralph Lauren. However, the market has yet to confirm that turnaround thesis. The company's deteriorating performance and weak share-price trend remain important challenges for investors betting on a recovery. Palantir and Nvidia Present a Different Challenge The more controversial part of Burry's portfolio concerns companies such as Palantir and Nvidia, where the fundamental debate is centred on valuation and the sustainability of exceptionally strong growth. Both companies have demonstrated characteristics associated with so-called hyper-growth stocks, including rapid revenue expansion and strong margins. The difficulty for a bearish investor is that extraordinary valuation does not automatically produce an immediate correction. Burry's earlier concerns around accounting practices also illustrate the danger of allowing a valuation thesis to become dependent on a specific fundamental accusation. If the anticipated accounting problem does not materialise, the bearish argument becomes much harder to sustain. That does not necessarily invalidate concerns about valuation. It does, however, demonstrate the difference between saying “this stock is expensive” and successfully identifying the catalyst that will cause the market to reprice it. Oracle and Nebius: The Debt Argument Burry's bearish exposure to Oracle and Nebius offers another angle. The concern centres partly on debt levels and the scale of depreciation and amortisation associated with major technology infrastructure investments. This is particularly relevant during the current AI investment cycle, where companies are committing enormous amounts of capital to data centres, computing infrastructure and related technology. The bearish argument is straightforward: if expected growth fails to justify the enormous investment required, companies could face pressure from financing costs, depreciation and lower returns on capital. But again, the market needs a catalyst. A company can carry significant financial risks while its shares continue rising if investors remain convinced that future earnings will justify today's valuation. The Real Lesson: Timing Can Matter More Than Valuation Burry's latest move may therefore be less about abandoning his thesis and more about controlling the cost of waiting for that thesis to work. This is especially important when options are involved. Imagine an investor correctly identifies a stock as significantly overvalued. If the stock remains elevated for another two years before finally falling, a put option expiring before that decline can still become worthless. The investor was fundamentally correct — but financially wrong. That is why reducing some short exposure while retaining longer-dated positions can be interpreted as an attempt to preserve flexibility. Burry's Portfolio Sends a Mixed Signal PositionDirectionMarket InterpretationLululemonLongContrarian recovery thesisMolina HealthcareLongDefensive/growth exposureMercadoLibreLongLong-term growth convictionPalantirPutContinued AI/valuation concernQQQPutBroader technology bearishnessOraclePutDebt and infrastructure concernsNebiusPutAI infrastructure riskNvidiaPutValuation/growth concern The overall picture is therefore more nuanced than simply “Burry is bearish.” He remains positioned for a technology correction, but appears less willing to absorb unlimited option decay while waiting for that correction to arrive. Is This Capitulation? Probably not — at least not yet. Reducing bearish positions does not necessarily mean that Burry has abandoned his fundamental view. It could mean that he recognises the market's momentum remains firmly against him. Technology valuations can remain elevated for longer than a short seller expects, particularly when earnings growth continues to provide investors with justification for paying high multiples. At the same time, reducing portions of long positions can indicate that Burry is also becoming less comfortable with individual company-specific assumptions. The result is a portfolio that looks increasingly designed around flexibility rather than conviction alone. What Traders Are Watching Next The most important signals will be whether Burry continues reducing his technology puts or instead uses future weakness to rebuild bearish exposure. Markets will also be watching: AI earnings growth versus current valuations. Nvidia's revenue and margin trajectory. Palantir's valuation relative to future earnings growth. Oracle's debt and capital-investment requirements. AI infrastructure spending and returns on capital. Lululemon's ability to stabilise revenue and margins. The timing and size of any broader technology-sector correction. The eventual performance of these positions will depend not only on whether Burry's fundamental assumptions prove correct, but also on when the market begins to agree with him. Currency Hedger View From a broader market perspective, Burry's repositioning highlights the importance of risk management when valuations become stretched. For currency and global markets, a major repricing in US technology stocks could have wider consequences through equity flows, risk appetite, the US dollar and demand for defensive assets. However, the current portfolio changes do not by themselves establish that a major technology correction is imminent. They demonstrate something more practical: even sophisticated investors must manage the cost of maintaining a bearish position when markets refuse to move in the expected direction. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Burry's latest portfolio update should not be interpreted as proof that he has abandoned his long-running concerns about technology valuations. The more interesting interpretation is that he is adjusting the way he expresses that view. Reducing some short exposure while maintaining longer-dated puts gives Burry greater flexibility and reduces the damage caused by time decay if the anticipated correction takes longer to arrive. That is arguably the most important lesson from the portfolio. A valuation thesis can be completely correct and still produce a poor investment result if the catalyst arrives too late. At the same time, the continued bearish exposure to areas of the AI trade shows that Burry has not simply turned bullish on technology. The portfolio increasingly looks like a balance between conviction and patience — acknowledging that the market can remain expensive, irrational or simply early for considerably longer than a bearish investor expects. Bottom Line Michael Burry's latest portfolio changes look less like outright capitulation and more like a tactical rebalance around timing and risk. He remains positioned against parts of the technology and AI trade, while maintaining major long positions in companies where he sees significant recovery or growth potential. The bigger question is no longer simply whether Burry is right about expensive technology stocks. It is whether his timing will ultimately be right as well. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets With contribution from Currency Hedger — currencyhedger.com

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Energies

September 15, 2026

European Gas Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruption Tightens Winter Supply Outlook

Today Markets Analysis: European natural gas prices remained above €82/MWh on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since late 2022 as traders increasingly focused on the potential for prolonged disruption to global LNG supplies and Europe’s already fragile winter storage position. The combination of uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, reduced LNG tanker traffic and ongoing maintenance at Norwegian gas facilities is creating a more challenging supply outlook just as Europe enters the critical winter preparation period. Hormuz Disruption Raises LNG Supply Concerns The Strait of Hormuz has become a major focus for European gas traders. The waterway remains largely closed to commercial traffic amid military conflict and security concerns, while diplomatic efforts to restore normal shipping conditions have stalled. The implications extend well beyond crude oil. A significant portion of global LNG flows can be affected when shipping through major maritime chokepoints is disrupted. With LNG tanker traffic through Hormuz falling sharply, European buyers are increasingly competing with Asian markets for available cargoes. That competition could push European gas prices higher if the disruption persists. Europe Enters Winter With a Storage Disadvantage Europe's gas storage position provides another reason for concern. Inventories are reportedly around 68% of capacity, approximately 17 percentage points below the seasonal norm. That gap is significant because European storage facilities would normally be approaching maximum levels at this stage of the year ahead of the winter heating season. Lower starting inventories mean Europe has less of a buffer against: A prolonged cold spell. Further LNG supply disruption. Reduced pipeline deliveries. Higher Asian LNG demand. Additional infrastructure outages. The market therefore has less room for unexpected supply shocks. Norwegian Maintenance Adds Further Uncertainty Norway remains one of Europe's most important sources of pipeline gas, making maintenance at Norwegian facilities particularly relevant. Planned and unplanned maintenance can temporarily reduce available supply, and in the current environment even relatively modest disruptions can have an outsized impact on prices. With LNG availability already under pressure, Europe has fewer easy alternatives if Norwegian flows fall unexpectedly. The €82/MWh Level Is More Than a Price Move The rise above €82/MWh is important because it signals that traders are increasingly pricing a risk premium into European gas. The market is not necessarily forecasting an immediate physical shortage. Instead, prices are reflecting the possibility that Europe could enter winter with less flexibility than usual. If the geopolitical situation improves and LNG shipping resumes normally, some of this premium could unwind quickly. However, if Hormuz remains disrupted while storage remains below seasonal norms, European buyers may be forced to compete aggressively for incremental LNG cargoes. European Gas Market Balance FactorMarket ImpactStrait of Hormuz disruptionStrongly bullishReduced LNG tanker trafficBullishEuropean storage below seasonal normBullishNorwegian maintenanceBullishIncreased Asian LNG competitionBullishDiplomatic reopening of HormuzPotentially bearishWarmer European winterPotentially bearish What Traders Are Watching Next The most important variable is likely to be how long the disruption around Hormuz lasts. Traders will also monitor European storage injections, Norwegian pipeline flows, LNG arrivals and weather forecasts as the region moves closer to winter. A combination of low storage, strong Asian LNG demand and continued shipping disruption would create a particularly bullish setup. Conversely, a reopening of Hormuz and restoration of normal LNG flows could trigger a rapid correction as the geopolitical premium begins to disappear. Currency Hedger View European gas prices are also an important currency story. A sustained rise in energy costs increases the inflation burden facing European economies and can weaken the euro through higher import costs, particularly if Europe needs to compete aggressively for LNG cargoes priced in US dollars. The combination of elevated energy prices and weaker storage levels could therefore create a difficult environment for the European Central Bank, forcing policymakers to balance inflation risks against slowing economic activity. For currency markets, the key question is whether the gas-price shock remains temporary or develops into a prolonged European energy-cost problem. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Europe's gas market is entering a potentially dangerous period. The immediate issue is not simply that prices have reached their highest level since 2022. It is that prices are rising while storage remains materially below normal seasonal levels and global LNG logistics are being disrupted. That combination leaves Europe increasingly exposed to another supply shock. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “European gas is being driven by a combination of geopolitical risk and a weaker-than-normal storage position. The market can absorb a short disruption, but a prolonged interruption to LNG flows would force European buyers to compete much more aggressively for available cargoes.” Bottom Line European natural gas prices above €82/MWh reflect a growing risk premium around the region's winter supply outlook. The combination of Hormuz disruption, lower LNG availability, below-normal storage and Norwegian maintenance leaves the European market with less flexibility than usual. The next major catalyst will be whether shipping through Hormuz resumes. Until then, the risk remains that Europe's winter gas market could become significantly tighter — and substantially more expensive. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets With contribution from Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com

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Energies

September 15, 2026

Oil Edges Higher as Supply Risks Mount Across the Middle East

Today Markets Analysis: Crude oil climbed above $102 per barrel on Tuesday, as traders continued to price heightened uncertainty around global supply and the risk of further disruption across key Middle Eastern energy routes. The latest move comes as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remains shut following drone attacks. The pipeline provides an alternative route for Saudi crude that can reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, making its continued closure an important factor for the physical oil market. Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Keeps Supply Risk Elevated The East-West pipeline is strategically important because it allows Saudi Arabia to move crude towards the Red Sea rather than relying entirely on the Strait of Hormuz. With the pipeline still offline and no clear timetable for a full restart, traders are increasingly focused on how long the disruption could persist and whether alternative export routes can compensate. The longer the outage continues, the greater the potential for regional supply premiums to remain embedded in crude prices. Hormuz Tensions Add Another Layer of Risk Diplomatic efforts to address the situation around Hormuz have also faced setbacks. A planned meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab states was reportedly postponed, while Iran claimed that a supertanker attempting to enter a restricted area in the Strait exploded after striking mines. Iran has also indicated that it will not enter negotiations with the United States until its demands are met. For oil markets, the significance is straightforward: Hormuz remains one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, and any credible threat to shipping through the region can quickly translate into a higher geopolitical risk premium. Eastern Europe Creates a Second Supply-Side Variable The geopolitical picture is not limited to the Middle East. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is prepared to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia does the same. That position contrasts with US President Donald Trump's claim that Moscow and Kyiv had already agreed to suspend attacks against each other's energy infrastructure. The disagreement matters for energy markets because repeated attacks on Russian refining and energy infrastructure have the potential to affect regional fuel availability and crude flows. A genuine reduction in attacks could therefore remove some supply risk, while a continuation or escalation could reinforce the bullish argument for energy prices. Oil Market Balance FactorMarket ImpactSaudi East-West pipeline shutdownBullishStrait of Hormuz uncertaintyStrongly bullishIran-Gulf diplomatic uncertaintyBullishPotential disruption to tanker trafficBullishPossible Ukraine-Russia energy trucePotentially bearishContinued attacks on energy infrastructureBullish What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus for crude traders is likely to remain on physical supply disruption rather than conventional demand indicators. Key developments include: Any timetable for reopening Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. Further developments involving Iran and Gulf states. Whether attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure decline. Signs that crude inventories are beginning to reflect the disruption. Whether Brent and WTI can sustain their recent gains above psychologically important levels. The critical question is whether the current geopolitical premium remains temporary or begins to develop into a genuine physical supply shortage. Currency Hedger View For currencies, sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel create a particularly important inflationary risk. Higher energy prices can increase import costs for oil-dependent economies while putting additional pressure on central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy. That creates potential implications for the US dollar, euro, yen and major emerging-market currencies, particularly if energy prices remain elevated for several weeks rather than days. Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging. Today Markets View Oil is increasingly trading as a geopolitical asset as much as an economic commodity. The combination of a disrupted Saudi export route, uncertainty surrounding Hormuz and continuing tensions involving Iranian and Russian energy infrastructure leaves the market vulnerable to another sharp move higher if physical supply is affected. At the same time, traders should be careful not to assume that every geopolitical headline will translate into a lasting shortage. Diplomatic progress, restored infrastructure or a reduction in attacks could quickly remove part of the current risk premium. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “The oil market is now being forced to price the possibility that several supply routes could become constrained at the same time. The key issue is no longer simply whether crude can move above $100, but whether these disruptions persist long enough to create a genuine physical shortage.” Bottom Line Crude oil above $102 per barrel reflects a market increasingly concerned about the reliability of global supply routes. The Saudi pipeline shutdown and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remain the most immediate risks, while developments involving Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure add another layer of uncertainty. For now, the bias remains risk-sensitive and potentially bullish, but the sustainability of the move will depend on whether physical supply disruptions deepen or begin to ease. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets With contribution from Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com

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Markets

September 15, 2026

Gold Holds Decline as Oil Surge Strengthens Fed Rate Hike Bets

Today Markets Analysis: Gold has remained under pressure below $4,300 an ounce, trading close to its lowest levels in more than a month as surging oil prices reinforce expectations for tighter US monetary policy. Rising energy costs are adding to inflation concerns just as the Federal Reserve prepares for its September policy decision, while higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are creating additional headwinds for non-yielding bullion. Oil Prices Create a New Problem for Gold The latest weakness in gold is closely connected to the sharp increase in energy prices. Brent crude has moved above $100 a barrel, with prices pushed higher by continuing disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes. For gold, the problem is that higher oil prices can feed directly into inflation expectations. If energy costs remain elevated, central banks may have less room to ease monetary policy and could instead maintain tighter interest rates to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. That increases the opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no interest income. Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthen The Federal Reserve is meeting on September 15-16, with markets increasingly expecting a 25-basis-point rate increase. The move is already heavily reflected in market pricing, meaning the more important question for gold may be what the Fed signals about future policy. If policymakers indicate that persistent inflation could require rates to remain higher for longer, Treasury yields and the US dollar could receive additional support. That would create another headwind for bullion. Treasury Yields Add Pressure to Bullion US Treasury yields have also become an important driver of gold's recent decline. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, reflecting concerns surrounding inflation, energy prices and the fiscal outlook. Higher yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to gold. This does not necessarily mean investors are abandoning gold as a long-term hedge. However, in the short term, rising yields can encourage capital to move towards US fixed-income markets. A Stronger Dollar Adds Another Headwind The US dollar has been strengthening as expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy increase. Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger US currency makes bullion more expensive for international buyers. That can reduce demand and reinforce downward pressure on gold. The current combination is therefore significant: Higher oil prices. Stronger inflation expectations. Higher Treasury yields. Increased Fed rate-hike expectations. A stronger US dollar. Together, these factors are creating a difficult short-term environment for gold. Gold's Safe-Haven Role Is Being Tested Normally, escalating geopolitical tensions would be expected to support gold through safe-haven demand. The current market is behaving differently. Despite continuing tensions across the Middle East and disruptions to global energy supplies, gold has remained under pressure. The reason is that investors are increasingly focused on the inflationary consequences of higher energy prices and the possibility of tighter monetary policy. The US dollar and Treasury market are also attracting defensive capital. This means geopolitical risk remains supportive for gold over the longer term, but monetary-policy expectations are currently dominating the short-term price action. Bank of Japan Adds Another Central-Bank Risk The Federal Reserve is not the only major central bank facing renewed inflation pressure. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise interest rates on Friday, with higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty complicating its inflation outlook. A more hawkish stance from major central banks could reinforce the broader global shift towards higher borrowing costs. For gold, that would represent another challenge if bond yields continue rising internationally. Gold Market Balance FactorImpact on GoldHigher oil pricesBearishFed rate-hike expectationsBearishRising US Treasury yieldsBearishStronger US dollarBearishMiddle East tensionsBullishEnergy supply disruptionsMixedSafe-haven demandSupportiveHigher global interest ratesBearishCentral-bank buyingSupportive The immediate balance remains tilted toward the bearish side because monetary-policy expectations are currently overwhelming gold's traditional geopolitical safe-haven support. What Traders Are Watching Next The Federal Reserve decision will be the most important near-term event for gold. Traders will be watching: The Fed's interest-rate decision. Updated economic projections. The tone of the Fed's policy guidance. US Treasury yields. The US dollar reaction. Oil prices and Middle Eastern supply developments. Further inflation data. Bank of Japan policy on Friday. Gold's ability to hold the $4,300 area. The key question is whether the Fed delivers a hike that is already largely priced into markets or signals that additional tightening could follow. Currency Hedger View From a currency perspective, gold is facing a particularly difficult combination of a stronger US dollar and rising US yields. If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone, the dollar could receive another boost, potentially creating additional downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold. However, the longer-term picture is less straightforward. Persistent geopolitical risk, elevated government debt and continued demand for reserve diversification can continue to support gold as a strategic asset even if the short-term trading environment remains bearish. Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging, contributed to this analysis. Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com Today Markets View Gold is currently caught between two powerful forces. On one side, geopolitical tensions and energy-market disruptions continue to provide a fundamental reason for investors to maintain exposure to precious metals. On the other, higher oil prices are creating inflationary pressure that is pushing interest-rate expectations higher. The latter is currently dominating. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Gold is facing an unusual environment where geopolitical risk is clearly elevated, yet the metal is still under pressure because the inflationary consequences of higher oil prices are strengthening expectations for tighter monetary policy. The immediate direction of gold will likely depend less on the geopolitical headlines themselves and more on how the Federal Reserve responds to the inflation problem.” Bottom Line Gold remains under pressure below $4,300 an ounce as higher oil prices strengthen expectations for tighter monetary policy. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are adding further pressure to the non-yielding metal, while the Federal Reserve's September meeting has become the dominant short-term market catalyst. The broader geopolitical environment remains supportive for gold, but until yields and the dollar begin to reverse, the metal could remain vulnerable to further downside. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets With contribution from Currency Hedger — www.currencyhedger.com

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Forex Trading

September 15, 2026

Dollar Extends Gains as Markets Brace for First Fed Rate Hike Since 2023

The US dollar extends its winning streak to five sessions as traders prepare for a pivotal Federal Reserve decision, with rising oil prices adding fresh pressure to the inflation outlook. The US dollar continued to strengthen on Tuesday, with the Dollar Index moving above 99.5 and recording its fifth consecutive session of gains. The latest advance comes ahead of what could be a major turning point for US monetary policy, with markets expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week. A 25-basis-point increase would represent the first increase in US borrowing costs since 2023 and would mark a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's recent policy direction. Markets prepare for the Fed The rate decision is likely to dominate financial markets this week. While a 25bp increase is broadly expected, the more important question for investors is what comes next. The Federal Reserve will also release updated economic projections, giving markets a fresh indication of where policymakers see inflation, economic growth and interest rates heading. For the dollar, a more hawkish-than-expected message could provide another leg higher. Conversely, if policymakers signal that this week's increase could be largely isolated, the recent dollar rally could lose momentum as traders lock in profits. Oil creates another inflation problem One of the biggest complications for the Federal Reserve is the sharp increase in oil prices. Brent crude has moved above $100 per barrel amid growing geopolitical disruption and concerns about global energy supplies. Higher energy prices can feed directly into headline inflation while also increasing transportation, production and operating costs across the economy. That creates a difficult environment for central banks. Even if underlying inflation begins to moderate, a sustained oil shock could slow the process and force policymakers to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer. For the dollar, this is potentially supportive. If markets begin pricing a higher probability of additional Fed tightening, US yields can rise relative to other developed markets, increasing demand for dollar-denominated assets. The dollar's advantage The current move in the Dollar Index reflects a combination of monetary-policy expectations and a more defensive market environment. Investors are reassessing expectations for US interest rates at the same time as concerns over equities and global growth are encouraging demand for traditional defensive assets. Technology stocks have also come under pressure as investors question the enormous investment being made in artificial intelligence and whether the expected returns will justify the scale of spending. That combination is helping reinforce the dollar's position. The US currency can benefit when investors seek safety, but it can also gain when US interest rates are expected to remain comparatively attractive. What about the UK and Japan? The Federal Reserve is not the only major central bank in focus this week. The Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan is also approaching an important policy decision on Friday. The divergence between the major central banks could become increasingly important for foreign exchange markets. If the Fed moves towards tighter policy while the BoE and BoJ remain comparatively cautious, interest-rate differentials could continue to favour the dollar. However, the situation is not one-directional. The Bank of Japan's policy path remains particularly important because any further move towards higher Japanese rates could support the yen and potentially create volatility across major currency pairs. Can the dollar rally continue? Five consecutive sessions of gains demonstrate strong short-term momentum, but the Dollar Index is now approaching an area where traders may begin looking for signs of exhaustion. The immediate catalyst will be Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. A straightforward 25bp increase may already be largely priced into the market. The bigger move could therefore come from the Fed's guidance. A signal that additional increases may be required because of persistent inflation and higher energy prices could push the Dollar Index higher. A less aggressive outlook could produce the opposite reaction. Currency Hedger View From an FX perspective, the dollar is entering an important period. The combination of higher oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and expectations of tighter US monetary policy is creating a favourable environment for the US currency. However, much of the immediate Fed move may already be reflected in prices. The key question for currency markets is therefore not simply whether the Fed hikes, but whether policymakers indicate that another hike could follow. If markets begin pricing a sustained tightening cycle, the dollar could retain its recent momentum. If Wednesday's message suggests that the Fed is nearing the end of the tightening process, traders could quickly reassess the current dollar positioning. Today Markets View: The dollar remains firmly supported, but Wednesday's Fed decision could determine whether the five-session rally develops into a broader trend or becomes a classic pre-event positioning move. Market analysis for Today Markets, with contribution from Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Trade of the Day: USDIDX

Facts A Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September Fed meeting is almost fully priced into futures contracts (approx. 89% market-implied probability). The situation in the debt market remains tense, with 30-year US Treasury yields remaining close to 20-year highs (5.35%). WTI crude oil prices are approaching May highs, while the RSI indicator signals overbought conditions (71.2). Recommendation Position: Short (SELL) on USDIDX at market price (99.261). Target price (Take Profit, TP): 98.300 Stop Loss (SL): 100.100 Figure 1: USDIDX (09.10.2025 - 14.09.2026) Source: xStation5, 14.09.2026 (12:10) Opinion USDIDX has recently been supported by both rising expectations of Fed rate hikes and climbing energy commodity prices (alongside an accompanying shift away from risk among investors). Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting will decisively shape market conditions (and not only in FX). Given that a rate hike is currently priced in at nearly 90%, the move itself may not suffice to strengthen the US dollar. A relatively hawkish and - crucially - credible narrative is also required. If Warsh fails to convince markets once again, bets on further rate hikes could fall, exerting downward pressure on the American currency. An even greater risk lies in a potential pause in rate hikes, which - amidst the recent escalation of pressure from President Trump for looser monetary policy - could reignite concerns over the erosion of US institutional integrity. This might drive a further rise in US Treasury yields and fuel the so-called 'debasement trade', namely a move away from fiat currency towards alternatives with fixed (or near-fixed) supply, such as precious metals or Bitcoin. Any significant improvement in the Middle East situation that would lead to a drop in oil prices would also be unfavourable for the dollar. These prices have recently been pushed very high. Certain technical indicators, such as the RSI, suggest overbought conditions. Figure 2: OIL.WTI (25.02.2026 - 14.09.2026) Source: xStation, 14.09.2026 Lower crude oil prices are unfavourable for the US dollar for two reasons. Firstly, a decline should prompt investors to turn towards riskier assets (including higher-beta currencies). Secondly, the United States is a net exporter of crude oil. Methodology The recommendation has been prepared based on a fundamental analysis of the balance of risks for the US dollar ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, as well as a technical analysis of the USDIDX chart. The direction of the recommendation was established through an assessment of these risks. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were determined using Fibonacci retracements (TP slightly above Fibo 38.2, which also serves as a key psychological level at 100; SL positioned between Fibo 78.6 and Fibo 100, TP2 slightly above Fibo 100, SL near Fibo 78.6).

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Chart of the Day: AI to Slow Down? US100 Drops 1.7% as Investors Reassess the AI Trade

sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. The new week has brought a sharp deterioration in sentiment across technology markets, with the US100 falling around 1.7% at the opening. The decline comes as investors increasingly question whether expectations surrounding artificial intelligence have moved too far ahead of reality. For years, AI has been one of the dominant drivers of the technology market. Massive investment in data centres, semiconductors and increasingly powerful AI models has helped push technology stocks to record valuations. Now, however, the market is beginning to ask a different question: How much of the future AI boom is already priced into technology stocks? AI enthusiasm meets reality The debate surrounding the pace and safety of AI development has intensified, with technology leaders increasingly discussing the risks associated with increasingly powerful models. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been among the industry's prominent voices warning about the potential risks of rapid AI development. The wider debate has also involved figures such as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk. For investors, however, the underlying issue is less about the technology debate itself and more about what it means for corporate investment and future earnings. The technology industry is spending enormous amounts on AI infrastructure. . Data centres, advanced processors, energy infrastructure and AI research require substantial capital expenditure. The market has so far been willing to accept that spending because investors expect AI revenues and productivity gains to eventually justify it. That assumption is now facing greater scrutiny. If AI monetisation develops more slowly than expected, or companies are forced to spend substantially more before seeing meaningful returns, technology valuations could remain under pressure. The AI race is also becoming geopolitical The United States remains a global leader in artificial intelligence, but China is rapidly expanding its own AI capabilities. Beijing is increasingly treating artificial intelligence as a strategic technology, with implications for economic growth, industrial competitiveness and national security. That creates an additional challenge for US policymakers. Restrictions designed to control the development or export of advanced AI technology may address certain security concerns, but they could also make it easier for Chinese competitors to close the technological gap. The AI race has therefore become much larger than a competition between individual technology companies. It is increasingly a competition between entire technological ecosystems. Are technology valuations finally becoming more attractive? Despite the negative headlines, the valuation picture is not as extreme as it was during the strongest stages of the AI rally. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 has fallen towards the low-20s, bringing valuations closer to the lower end of their recent historical range. That is important. A falling valuation does not necessarily mean that the technology market is entering a bear market. It can also mean that investors are already pricing in a significant amount of bad news. If corporate earnings remain strong while valuations continue to decline, technology stocks could become increasingly attractive to longer-term investors. The opposite is also true. If lower valuations are accompanied by falling earnings expectations, the market could face a much deeper correction. The technical picture matters The latest decline is also testing an important area of the US100's broader uptrend. The volume profile highlighted in the underlying market analysis shows several areas where significant trading activity has taken place since the beginning of the year. The latest consolidation is now being tested from the downside. A sustained break below this area could encourage sellers to target the next major volume cluster, potentially around the lows created during the sharp market declines seen in early August. For now, however, the longer-term uptrend has not necessarily been broken. That distinction is important. A 1.7% decline is significant, but it does not by itself signal the end of the technology bull market. The next few sessions will be important in determining whether Monday's move represents a normal correction or the beginning of a deeper reassessment of technology valuations. What investors should watch The most important indicators for the AI trade are increasingly becoming fundamental rather than simply technological. Investors will be watching: AI-related revenue growth Technology company capital expenditure Data-centre investment Semiconductor demand AI adoption by businesses Productivity gains from AI Operating margins Free cash flow Forward earnings expectations If these indicators remain strong, the current weakness could eventually be viewed as a valuation reset within a continuing AI expansion. If spending continues to rise while returns disappoint, however, investors may begin questioning whether the enormous AI investment cycle can generate the earnings growth currently embedded in technology valuations. Today Markets View The latest US100 decline does not yet signal the end of the AI boom. But it does highlight a change in investor psychology. The market is moving away from simply asking how big AI can become and increasingly asking how much investors should pay for that future growth today. That distinction could become increasingly important. The AI story remains one of the most significant long-term technological developments in global markets. But after years of extraordinary optimism and massive capital investment, investors are likely to become more selective. For the US100, the next major direction could therefore depend on whether strong AI earnings and productivity gains can continue to justify the enormous amount of capital being committed to the sector. Currency Hedger Contributor View: The long-term AI trend remains powerful, but the market may be entering a more selective phase. Valuations, capital expenditure and actual AI monetisation are likely to matter increasingly more than headlines alone. Market analysis for Today Markets, with contribution from Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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Commentary

September 14, 2026

The Week Ahead: Central Banks, Oil Shock and a Market Facing Three Major Tests

Markets enter one of the most important weeks of September The week ahead brings an unusually concentrated combination of monetary policy decisions, inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. Investors will be watching the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, while oil markets remain under pressure following disruptions to Saudi energy infrastructure and continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The result is a difficult environment for global markets. Rising energy prices threaten to feed directly into inflation at precisely the moment investors had hoped that the global interest-rate cycle was becoming more predictable. For traders and investors, the key question is increasingly straightforward: Is the global economy facing another inflation shock just as central banks are being forced to decide whether interest rates need to move higher? 1. The Federal Reserve Takes Centre Stage The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday will be the defining event of the week. Markets have significantly increased expectations for further monetary tightening following recent US inflation data and the sharp rise in energy prices. Higher oil prices threaten to work their way through transportation, manufacturing and consumer costs, potentially making inflation more persistent. The decision itself will matter, but the accompanying guidance may be even more important. Markets will be watching for answers to three questions: Does the Fed view the latest inflation data as temporary or persistent? How concerned is the Fed about the impact of rising oil prices? Will policymakers leave the door open to further tightening? A more hawkish message could strengthen the US dollar and place further pressure on technology stocks, precious metals and other rate-sensitive assets. 2. Oil Remains the Biggest Inflation Risk The energy market has rapidly become one of the most important macroeconomic stories. Brent crude has moved above the $100 level, while WTI has approached $100 per barrel following disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and continuing uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The importance of this development extends far beyond the oil market. Higher crude prices affect: Transport and logistics costs Manufacturing Consumer inflation Central-bank policy Corporate profit margins Household disposable income The immediate market risk is that an extended disruption could create a second-round inflation effect across major economies. That would leave central banks facing an uncomfortable choice between protecting economic growth and preventing inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. Currency Hedger View For businesses with international energy exposure, the combination of higher oil prices and volatile exchange rates creates a double layer of risk. A European importer, for example, may not simply face a higher dollar price for crude or energy products. A weaker domestic currency against the US dollar can increase the effective cost even further. This is where currency exposure and commodity exposure increasingly need to be considered together. 3. The Bank of England Faces a Difficult Decision The Bank of England meets on Thursday against a backdrop of persistent inflation concerns and renewed pressure from energy markets. UK employment and inflation data earlier in the week will help shape expectations ahead of the decision. Sterling has remained relatively resilient, but GBP/USD continues to face pressure from a stronger US dollar and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive stance. The key levels in GBP/USD will remain closely watched, particularly around the 1.3500 area. For businesses managing GBP/USD exposure, this week's combination of UK inflation data, the Fed decision and the Bank of England meeting could produce significant volatility. Currency Hedger View Central-bank weeks can create rapid moves in currency markets that are difficult for businesses to predict. For importers, exporters and companies with international payrolls or supplier payments, the issue is often not forecasting the exact direction of GBP/USD or EUR/USD. It is understanding the level of exchange-rate exposure and deciding how much of that risk should remain open. 4. The Bank of Japan Could Trigger Another Yen Move Friday brings the Bank of Japan. Markets are watching closely for further policy tightening, with expectations focused on whether Japanese policymakers will continue moving away from the ultra-low interest-rate environment that defined the previous era. The yen has strengthened significantly as expectations of higher Japanese rates have encouraged the unwinding of carry trades. This has implications far beyond USD/JPY. For years, low Japanese interest rates encouraged investors to borrow yen and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. A sustained tightening cycle could force further adjustments across global asset markets. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY could therefore all experience elevated volatility. Currency Hedger View The Japanese yen is becoming increasingly important for international businesses because the market is no longer operating under the assumption that Japanese rates will remain permanently close to zero. A structural shift in Japanese monetary policy could change hedging decisions, borrowing costs and international capital flows. Markets to Watch Gold: Inflation vs Interest Rates Gold remains caught between two powerful forces. Geopolitical uncertainty and higher inflation can support demand for the metal, but rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar can create significant pressure. The Fed's decision will therefore be critical. A hawkish outcome could place further pressure on gold, while a more cautious approach towards additional tightening could allow buyers to return. The market remains highly sensitive around the recent $4,250–$4,300 support region. Oil: Can Supply Disruption Continue to Support Prices? Oil remains one of the week's most important markets. The key issue is no longer simply whether prices have risen too quickly. It is whether the disruption to infrastructure and shipping routes becomes prolonged. If supply routes remain constrained, Brent and WTI could remain supported despite concerns that significantly higher energy prices may eventually reduce demand. A rapid restoration of infrastructure and shipping capacity, however, could remove part of the geopolitical premium currently embedded in prices. Equities: Technology Stocks Face a Double Problem The Nasdaq and broader US equity market enter the week under pressure. Technology stocks remain particularly vulnerable to two developments: Higher interest-rate expectations Growing uncertainty surrounding AI valuations and regulation Higher rates increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which can place disproportionate pressure on companies whose valuations depend heavily on long-term growth expectations. At the same time, questions surrounding AI development, investment requirements and safety are beginning to create another layer of uncertainty. The Fed's decision could therefore determine whether the recent weakness develops into a deeper correction or a renewed recovery. The Economic Calendar Tuesday UK employment data German ZEW survey Chinese economic data Wednesday UK CPI US retail sales Federal Reserve interest-rate decision US crude inventories Thursday Bank of England interest-rate decision US jobless claims Philadelphia Fed survey Friday Bank of Japan policy decision Japanese inflation data Industrial production data Today Markets Outlook The coming week represents a significant test for the global market. The central issue is whether policymakers can continue controlling inflation without placing excessive pressure on already fragile areas of the global economy. Oil has reintroduced a major inflation risk. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are now approaching critical decisions from very different economic positions, while currency markets could react sharply to any divergence between their respective policy paths. For investors, this is not simply another central-bank week. It is a test of whether the global economy can absorb another energy shock without forcing a broader reassessment of interest rates, inflation expectations and asset valuations. The biggest market theme may therefore be volatility. With three major central banks making decisions in the space of three days, alongside elevated geopolitical risk and a rapidly changing energy market, the potential for sharp moves across currencies, commodities and equity indices is substantial. Today Markets will be following the week's major developments across global equities, commodities, currencies and central-bank policy. Currency Hedger, part of Octalas Group, provides market insight into the foreign-exchange and currency-risk implications of major global economic developments.

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Wheat Price Forecast: Tight US Supplies and Black Sea Risks Keep Futures Range-Bound

Today Markets Analysis: Wheat futures are expected to remain broadly range-bound through late 2026, with Chicago SRW wheat likely to trade around $5.50–$6.50 per bushel under the current supply-demand balance. Tight US supplies and persistent Black Sea export risks provide a potential floor for prices, while improving global production and competition from major exporters could limit sustained upside. The market is therefore caught between two opposing forces: relatively constrained US supplies and geopolitical risks on one side, and the ability of global producers to increase exports on the other. Wheat Prices Face a Two-Sided Market The central question for wheat traders is whether supply concerns will become severe enough to push futures materially above the current trading range. Base-case forecasts point toward $5.50–$6.50 per bushel for Chicago SRW wheat through late 2026. However, more bullish scenarios suggest prices could move toward $7.62–$8.87 if significant production or export disruptions emerge. That creates a relatively wide risk distribution around an otherwise range-bound market. FactorMarket ImpactTight US wheat suppliesBullishBlack Sea export disruptionBullishLower global stockpilesBullishImproving international productionBearishStrong global export competitionBearishMajor supply shockPotentially strongly bullish US Supply Provides a Potential Price Floor US wheat production remains an important part of the bullish argument. The USDA Economic Research Service has highlighted historically weak US production, creating a tighter domestic supply environment than would normally be expected in a well-supplied global market. That does not necessarily mean wheat prices must rally sharply. However, lower US availability can reduce the amount of downside pressure that the market can absorb before buyers become more active. For traders, this makes the $5.50 area an important reference point in the broader forecast range. Black Sea Risks Remain Critical The Black Sea remains one of the most important variables for global wheat pricing. Russia and Ukraine are major participants in international grain markets, meaning disruptions to ports, shipping routes, infrastructure or export volumes can quickly change the global supply equation. The market does not necessarily need an outright loss of production to become bullish. A reduction in export availability can be enough to create a temporary supply shock as importers compete for alternative cargoes. This is particularly important because wheat is a globally traded commodity. A disruption in one major exporting region can rapidly alter freight costs, export premiums and purchasing behaviour elsewhere. Global Production Could Limit the Upside The bearish counterargument is that higher prices eventually encourage production. If farmers in major producing regions respond to improved prices with increased acreage, fertiliser application or investment, additional supply can gradually return to the market. That is why longer-term forecasts become considerably less bullish. Some 2027 projections place wheat around $7.60 per bushel, while more bearish scenarios see prices moving closer to $6.20 as international production adjusts. Further ahead, some long-term projections point toward a broader $4.50–$7.00 range between 2028 and 2030, assuming agricultural productivity continues to improve and global supply responds to periods of elevated prices. Wheat's Longer-Term Outlook Depends on Supply Response The longer-term wheat market is therefore less about a permanent shortage and more about the speed at which producers can respond to changing market conditions. Higher prices create an incentive for additional production. Improved yields and agricultural technology can also increase global availability over time. However, weather remains a major uncertainty. A favourable production cycle could push prices toward the lower end of the longer-term range, while drought, extreme temperatures, disease or geopolitical disruption could rapidly move the market in the opposite direction. What Traders Are Watching Next The most important variables for wheat futures are likely to be: US crop production and yield estimates US and global ending stocks Russian and Ukrainian export volumes Black Sea shipping and infrastructure risks Weather across major producing regions Global wheat demand and import activity Changes in agricultural acreage The pace at which global production responds to higher prices The distinction between a temporary supply disruption and a genuine deterioration in the global balance will be particularly important. Today Markets View Wheat currently appears to have a reasonable fundamental argument for remaining above its lower forecast range, but the market lacks an obvious catalyst for a sustained move substantially higher. The $5.50–$6.50 range therefore remains a useful base-case framework, with the $7.62–$8.87 region representing a more aggressive upside scenario should Black Sea disruption or another major supply shock materially tighten global availability. The longer-term picture is less straightforward. If global production continues to respond to price incentives and agricultural efficiency improves, wheat could gradually move back toward the $4.50–$7.00 range. “Wheat is being pulled in two different directions. Tight US supplies and Black Sea risks provide a fundamental floor, but the global agricultural system has a powerful ability to respond when prices rise. The key issue for traders is whether current supply risks develop into a genuine global shortage or remain temporary disruptions that can be absorbed by other exporters.” Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets Bottom Line Late-2026 base case: $5.50–$6.50/bushelBullish scenario: $7.62–$8.87/bushel2027 scenarios: approximately $6.20–$7.60Longer-term 2028–2030 range: approximately $4.50–$7.00 Wheat's near-term outlook remains balanced between tight US supplies and Black Sea geopolitical risks on one side and global production recovery and agricultural efficiency on the other. A major supply disruption would be the clearest catalyst for a sustained breakout above the current range. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets.

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Energies

September 14, 2026

Coal Holds Near Three-Month High as Energy Disruptions Revive Demand

Today Markets Analysis: Coal prices held above $145 per tonne in mid-September, remaining close to their highest levels in three months as disruptions across global energy markets encouraged a renewed shift toward coal-fired power generation. The latest move highlights an important change in the global energy balance. While the Middle East is not a major coal-producing region and relatively little coal passes through the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions to oil, natural gas and LNG supplies are making coal increasingly attractive as an alternative fuel for power generation. The International Energy Agency has consequently revised its outlook and now expects global coal demand to increase 1.2% to a record 8.94 billion tonnes this year, reversing its previous forecast for a modest decline. LNG Disruptions Push Utilities Back Toward Coal The primary driver behind the stronger coal outlook is the disruption to global gas markets. The Middle East conflict has pushed oil and natural gas prices higher while LNG shipments have fallen sharply. For utilities across Europe and Asia, this changes the relative economics of power generation. Where coal-fired generation remains available, higher gas prices can make coal more competitive even when environmental and emissions costs are considered. This creates an important energy-market transmission mechanism: LNG disruption → higher gas prices → coal becomes more competitive → coal-fired generation increases → coal demand rises. The development demonstrates that disruptions in one part of the energy system can quickly create additional demand for another fuel. IEA Raises Global Coal Demand Forecast The IEA now expects global coal consumption to reach a record 8.94 billion tonnes, representing growth of approximately 1.2% this year. That revision is significant because the agency had previously anticipated a slight decline in global coal demand. The change suggests that the current energy shock is strong enough to temporarily reverse the longer-term trend toward lower coal consumption. Europe and Asia are particularly important to this equation because both regions have been exposed to disruptions in LNG availability and higher imported energy costs. China Adds Another Source of Coal Demand China is providing an additional source of support. Higher oil prices have encouraged increased coal consumption in China's chemical industry, adding industrial demand alongside power-generation requirements. China remains critical to the global coal market because of the scale of its electricity system and industrial base. At the same time, developments within China's domestic coal industry could tighten the physical market. Chinese Mine Inspections Threaten Production The IEA expects global coal output to decline in 2026, with developments in China playing an important role. Following a major mine accident in May, Chinese authorities introduced extensive safety inspections. The inspections have significantly reduced domestic coal production. That creates an unusual combination for the market. Demand is being supported by higher energy prices and substitution away from gas, while production is facing additional restrictions in one of the world's largest coal markets. If reduced Chinese output persists, international coal prices could remain supported even if the Middle East energy situation begins to stabilise. Coal Market: Bullish and Bearish Forces FactorMarket ImpactLNG shipment disruptionsBullishHigher natural gas pricesBullishShift toward coal-fired powerBullishGlobal coal demand forecast +1.2%BullishChinese chemical-sector demandBullishChinese mine safety inspectionsBullishLower global coal output forecastBullishStabilisation of LNG suppliesBearishNormalisation of Middle East energy marketsBearishLong-term transition away from coalBearish Coal's Role in the Broader Energy Market Coal is increasingly becoming the shock absorber of the global electricity system. When natural gas becomes expensive or unavailable, countries with existing coal-fired capacity can increase coal consumption to protect electricity supply. This does not necessarily represent a reversal of the long-term energy transition. Instead, it demonstrates how quickly energy security can override longer-term decarbonisation objectives when supply becomes constrained. The current environment therefore creates a potentially important distinction between structural coal demand and cyclical coal demand. Structural demand may continue to face pressure from renewable energy investment, emissions policy and the gradual expansion of cleaner generation. Cyclical demand, however, can rise sharply when gas and LNG become expensive or unavailable. What Traders Are Watching Next The key question for coal markets is whether the current energy disruptions persist long enough to create a sustained increase in coal consumption. Traders will be watching: Global LNG shipment volumes European and Asian natural gas prices Middle East energy infrastructure Chinese domestic coal production Chinese mine-safety inspections Power-sector coal demand Asian coal imports Oil and gas substitution economics Further IEA revisions to global demand forecasts Today Markets View Coal's move above $145 per tonne is becoming less about coal itself and more about the broader global energy system. The important development is the interaction between oil, natural gas, LNG and coal. Disruptions to LNG supplies are making coal more economically attractive, while restrictions on Chinese production are simultaneously limiting supply. That combination has pushed the IEA to abandon its previous expectation of falling global coal demand and instead forecast another record year of consumption. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Coal is benefiting from a classic energy-substitution effect. When LNG becomes more expensive or less available, utilities have to look for alternatives, and coal remains an important part of the generation mix across Asia and parts of Europe. The more interesting question is whether this is a temporary response to the current energy shock or whether constrained Chinese production and persistent LNG risks create a tighter coal market for longer.” Bottom Line Coal is holding above $145 per tonne, close to a three-month high, as the global energy crisis reshapes fuel demand. The IEA now expects global coal consumption to reach a record 8.94 billion tonnes, up 1.2%, while global production is expected to decline in 2026. For traders, the key relationship is increasingly clear: Higher oil and gas prices + disrupted LNG supplies + constrained Chinese coal production = stronger support for coal prices. If LNG flows recover and energy markets stabilise, some of that demand could reverse. Until then, coal remains an important beneficiary of the global energy-security trade. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Copper Extends Fall as Hawkish Fed Bets and Tariff Uncertainty Weigh on Industrial Metals

Today Markets Analysis: Copper futures fell to around $6.40 per pound on Monday, extending last week's losses and reaching a six-week low as expectations for tighter US monetary policy weighed on risk-sensitive industrial metals. The decline comes as markets increasingly price a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday, while renewed oil supply disruptions are adding another inflationary pressure point for the US economy. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs on refined copper imports is creating additional pressure on the outlook for American manufacturing and industrial demand. Hawkish Fed Expectations Pressure Copper Copper has become increasingly sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations because the metal sits at the centre of global industrial activity. Following stronger-than-expected US inflation data on Friday, traders sharply increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Markets are currently pricing an approximately 86% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at Wednesday's meeting. Higher interest rates can weigh on copper through several channels. A stronger US dollar can make dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for international buyers, while higher borrowing costs can reduce investment and construction activity. Copper is particularly exposed because it is heavily linked to manufacturing, construction, infrastructure and global capital expenditure. The result is a familiar macroeconomic equation: Higher rates → stronger dollar → tighter financial conditions → weaker industrial demand expectations → pressure on copper. Oil Prices Create a Second Inflation Problem The copper sell-off is also occurring against a sharp rise in energy prices. Saudi Arabia reportedly shut down the critical East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route for crude exports that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has increased concerns about the reliability of global oil supply routes. For the Federal Reserve, higher oil prices create a difficult policy environment. Energy costs feed directly into headline inflation and can also raise transportation, manufacturing and production costs throughout the economy. If the energy shock persists, markets may have to consider the possibility that inflation remains elevated even as economic growth slows. That combination would be particularly uncomfortable for industrial metals. US Copper Tariff Uncertainty Adds Pressure Copper suffered a much sharper decline last Thursday, falling almost 5%, after reports that the Trump administration had delayed a decision on tariffs covering refined copper imports. The reported concern was that tariffs could push US copper prices significantly higher and increase costs for domestic manufacturers. This creates an unusual situation for the copper market. Tariffs could potentially support US domestic copper prices by restricting imports, but higher input costs could simultaneously weaken demand from manufacturers and other industrial users. For copper traders, the question is therefore not simply whether tariffs are bullish or bearish. It is who ultimately absorbs the additional cost. If higher copper prices are passed through to manufacturers, companies may reduce purchases, delay investment or seek alternative materials. If producers absorb part of the cost through lower margins, the effect could instead appear in corporate profitability. Copper's Industrial Role Makes the Fed Particularly Important Copper is often described as a barometer of global economic activity because of its extensive use across manufacturing, construction, electrical infrastructure, renewable energy and technology. That makes monetary policy particularly important. If the Fed becomes more restrictive, the impact can extend well beyond the United States through the dollar, global financing conditions and investor risk appetite. At the same time, copper's long-term structural demand story remains intact. Electrification, grid investment, data centres and energy infrastructure all require significant quantities of copper. The immediate market, however, is being driven by the macroeconomic cycle rather than the longer-term supply-demand narrative. Copper Market: Key Bullish and Bearish Forces FactorMarket Impact86% Fed hike probabilityBearishStronger US inflationBearishHigher US interest ratesBearishStronger dollarBearishHigher oil pricesBearish through inflation/ratesUS refined copper tariff uncertaintyBearish for demand, potentially supportive for US pricesGlobal infrastructure demandBullishElectrification and grid investmentBullishLong-term copper supply constraintsBullish What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus is Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and, more importantly, the language surrounding the decision. A rate hike that is already largely priced into markets may not necessarily trigger another major copper decline. The bigger question will be whether policymakers signal that further tightening could follow. Traders will also monitor: The US dollar following the Fed decision Treasury yields and real-rate expectations Further developments around US copper tariffs Saudi oil infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz developments Chinese industrial demand Global manufacturing data Copper inventories and physical premiums Today Markets View Copper's decline is increasingly becoming a story about monetary policy rather than copper alone. The metal is being squeezed by stronger US inflation, rising Fed expectations, higher oil prices and uncertainty over US trade policy. While long-term electrification and infrastructure demand remain important structural supports, those themes can be temporarily overwhelmed when financial conditions tighten. The key risk is that higher energy prices force central banks to remain restrictive at precisely the time when industrial demand is already becoming more sensitive to borrowing costs. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Copper is facing a difficult combination of higher interest-rate expectations and renewed energy inflation. The important issue for traders is that these forces reinforce each other: higher oil prices can keep inflation elevated, while higher rates and a stronger dollar increase pressure on industrial commodities. The long-term copper story remains compelling, but the market is currently trading the macroeconomic cycle rather than the structural electrification story.” Bottom Line Copper is trading around $6.40 per pound, its lowest level in approximately six weeks, as markets increasingly price a 25-basis-point Fed hike. The immediate direction of copper will likely depend on three interconnected factors: US monetary policy, the dollar and global industrial demand. US tariff uncertainty adds another layer of complexity, while higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated and make the Fed's policy path more restrictive. For now, the macroeconomic environment remains a headwind for copper. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 14, 2026

WTI Rebounds Toward Four-Month Highs as Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Revives Supply Risks

Today Markets Analysis: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rebounded toward nearly four-month highs after Saudi Arabia shut its major East-West crude pipeline following drone attacks, highlighting renewed risks to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. The disruption comes as diplomatic efforts to establish a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz have been postponed, leaving traders focused on whether alternative export routes can continue to protect global supply. WTI recovered to around $99.40 per barrel during Asian trading on Monday after falling almost 4% in the previous session. The rebound reflects renewed concern that the latest attacks could create a more persistent disruption to regional crude flows. Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Adds Fresh Supply Risk Saudi Arabia suspended operations on its East-West pipeline following Thursday's drone attacks. The pipeline is particularly important because it provides an alternative route for transporting Saudi crude to Red Sea ports without relying on the Strait of Hormuz. With a capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day, the infrastructure represents a significant part of Saudi Arabia's ability to redirect exports away from the Gulf's most strategically sensitive shipping corridor. The temporary shutdown therefore carries significance beyond the immediate loss of pipeline flows. It raises questions about how much spare logistical capacity remains available if disruptions around Hormuz persist. Hormuz Shipping Talks Face Another Setback The pipeline disruption comes against an increasingly uncertain diplomatic backdrop. Talks involving Iran and several Gulf nations aimed at establishing a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly been postponed. Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi confirmed the delay, while reports indicated that Saudi Arabia had reservations about the proposal. Bahrain has also stated that it would not participate. For oil markets, the postponement matters because Hormuz remains one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. Any prolonged uncertainty surrounding the corridor increases the risk premium embedded in crude prices, even if physical supply has not yet been materially reduced. Seven Million Barrels a Day Highlights the Scale of the Risk The East-West pipeline was designed in part to provide Saudi Arabia with an alternative export route should shipping through Hormuz become constrained. Its roughly 7 million-barrel-per-day capacity makes the current shutdown particularly significant. The market is therefore dealing with two related risks: Market factorPotential impact on crudeSaudi East-West pipeline shutdownBullish7 million bpd alternative-route capacity affectedBullishHormuz shipping uncertaintyBullishPostponed diplomatic talksBullishPrevious WTI sell-offPotential bargain buyingRestoration of Saudi pipeline flowsBearishSuccessful Hormuz shipping agreementBearish The key issue is duration. A temporary precautionary shutdown would have a very different market impact from an extended disruption. Oil's Geopolitical Risk Premium Remains Elevated The recent decline in crude prices does not necessarily signal that geopolitical risk has disappeared. Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad has argued that geopolitical uncertainty remains an important constraint on any sustained downside in oil prices. That creates an important distinction for traders. Crude can fall sharply when immediate supply fears ease, but if the underlying infrastructure and shipping risks remain unresolved, sellers may struggle to generate a sustained bearish trend. For WTI, the market is therefore balancing short-term profit-taking against a still-elevated geopolitical risk premium. Higher Oil Prices Create a Second Market Problem The implications extend beyond the crude market itself. A sustained rise in oil prices can feed directly into transportation, industrial and consumer energy costs. That can complicate the inflation outlook at precisely the moment when financial markets are already focused heavily on central-bank policy. This creates a potentially difficult combination for risk assets: Geopolitical escalation → higher crude prices → higher inflation expectations → tighter monetary-policy expectations → higher yields → pressure on equities and risk-sensitive currencies. That transmission mechanism is increasingly important for traders because the oil market is no longer operating in isolation. Currency Hedger: Oil Creates a Major FX Transmission Channel For currencies, the direction of crude prices can produce very different effects depending on whether an economy is a major energy exporter or importer. Higher oil prices can support currencies such as the Canadian dollar, while creating greater pressure on energy-importing economies through deteriorating trade balances and higher imported inflation. The more persistent the oil shock becomes, the greater the potential impact on central-bank expectations and interest-rate differentials. Currency Hedger therefore views the current oil market as a broader macroeconomic event rather than simply a commodity-price move. The relationship between crude, inflation, interest rates and currencies could become increasingly important if WTI remains close to $100. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus for crude traders is likely to remain on: Whether Saudi Arabia restores the East-West pipeline quickly. Whether further attacks target regional energy infrastructure. Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Any renewed diplomatic negotiations involving Iran and Gulf nations. US crude inventories and refinery demand. Whether WTI can sustain prices near the $100 psychological level. The impact of higher oil prices on inflation and central-bank expectations. The $100 level is likely to become an important psychological reference point. A sustained move above it would reinforce the perception that geopolitical risk is becoming structurally embedded in crude pricing. Today Markets View WTI's rebound is significant because the market is confronting a combination of infrastructure disruption and unresolved geopolitical risk. The Saudi East-West pipeline was specifically designed to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Its shutdown therefore demonstrates that even alternative energy routes remain vulnerable when regional attacks escalate. “The most important issue for oil markets is not simply whether WTI can trade above $100. It is whether the infrastructure designed to protect Gulf energy exports from a Hormuz disruption can actually remain operational during a prolonged regional crisis. If the Saudi pipeline remains offline while uncertainty around Hormuz continues, the geopolitical risk premium could become much more persistent.” — Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets Bottom Line WTI has rebounded toward $99.40 per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut its 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline following drone attacks. The postponed Hormuz shipping talks add another layer of uncertainty, while the pipeline shutdown demonstrates that alternative export infrastructure remains exposed to regional security risks. For traders, the next major question is whether this is a temporary disruption or the beginning of a more persistent supply-risk premium in crude. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Bears Retain Control Below $64.75–$64.85

Today Markets Analysis: Silver begins the new week on a subdued footing, holding just above $64.00 as traders remain reluctant to establish large directional positions ahead of a heavy central-bank calendar. The technical structure remains bearish, with XAG/USD trading below key resistance around $64.75–$64.91. Central Banks Put Silver Traders on Alert Silver is entering the week with monetary policy firmly in focus. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. For silver, the central-bank decisions are particularly important because the metal does not generate interest income. Expectations for interest rates and real yields can therefore have a significant influence on investor demand. A more hawkish-than-expected Fed could reinforce the dollar and pressure precious metals, while a more dovish policy signal could provide silver with renewed upside momentum. $64.75–$64.91 Remains the Key Technical Barrier The immediate technical picture continues to favour sellers. XAG/USD remains below: $64.78 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement $64.91 — 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart $64.75–$64.85 — broader resistance/confluence zone The MACD remains below zero, while the RSI around 42 indicates that momentum has weakened following the recent pullback. This combination suggests that buyers have yet to regain sufficient momentum to challenge the recent highs. A sustained move above the 200-period SMA would therefore be important because it would begin to undermine the current bearish technical structure. Silver Support Levels Come Into Focus If sellers maintain control, the first significant downside reference is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $62.86. Below that level, attention turns to: LevelTechnical significance$62.8650% Fibonacci retracement$60.9461.8% Fibonacci retracement$58.21Deeper structural support$54.74Major downside floor A sustained break below $62.86 would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward $60.94. Conversely, reclaiming $64.78 and then breaking decisively above $64.91 would weaken the bearish setup. Bulls Need to Reclaim $64.91 The upside path is relatively clear. A sustained move above the 200-period SMA could expose the next resistance around $67.15, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that, traders would likely turn their attention toward the previous cycle-high region around $70.99. The distinction is important: an intraday move above $64.91 would not necessarily invalidate the bearish structure. The market would need to hold above the level and demonstrate acceptance before the technical outlook meaningfully changes. Currency Hedger: Silver Is Also a Dollar and Rates Trade From a Currency Hedger perspective, silver's next major move could be determined as much by the dollar and interest-rate expectations as by precious-metals-specific factors. Silver sits at the intersection of several markets: Fed policy → US yields → US dollar → precious-metals demand → XAG/USD If US yields rise and the dollar strengthens, the cost of holding a non-yielding metal can increase for investors, creating additional pressure on silver. However, a dovish Fed outcome could produce the opposite reaction, particularly if falling yields weaken the dollar. That makes Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision the week's most important macro catalyst for XAG/USD. What Traders Are Watching Next The key levels and catalysts are: $64.78: first major Fibonacci resistance $64.91: 200-period H4 SMA and key bearish-bias invalidation area $67.15: next upside resistance $70.99: cycle-high region $62.86: first major downside support $60.94: next downside target Fed decision: Wednesday BoE decision: Thursday BoJ decision: Friday US dollar and Treasury yields: critical cross-market indicators Today Markets View Silver remains technically vulnerable while it trades below the $64.75–$64.91 resistance zone. The current setup favours further downside, but the market is approaching a major macroeconomic test. The Federal Reserve's decision could rapidly change the relationship between yields, the dollar and precious metals. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets: “Silver's technical structure remains bearish, but traders should be careful not to treat the current pattern in isolation. The Fed decision could quickly alter the dollar and Treasury-yield environment that is driving precious metals. For now, $64.91 is the critical level. A failure below it keeps the downside structure intact, while sustained acceptance above it would signal that buyers are beginning to regain control.” Bottom Line XAG/USD remains around $64, with bears retaining the technical advantage below $64.75–$64.91. A break below $62.86 would open the door toward $60.94, while a sustained recovery above $64.91 would weaken the bearish case and put $67.15 back into focus. For both Today Markets and Currency Hedger, the key issue this week is the interaction between silver, the US dollar and central-bank policy rather than technical levels alone. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets.Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence.

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Palm Oil Rebounds Above MYR 4,850 as Crude Strengthens and Supply Risks Persist

Today Markets Analysis: Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded above MYR 4,850 per tonne after recently falling to a two-week low, with bargain hunting and strength across rival edible oils helping prices recover. Firmer crude oil has provided an additional source of support by improving palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock, although rising Malaysian inventories and weaker exports are limiting the upside. Palm Oil Recovers After Two-Week Low Malaysian palm oil futures recovered after recent losses, with traders returning to the market following the decline to a two-week low. The rebound has been supported by gains across competing edible oils, while bargain hunting has provided additional buying interest after the recent sell-off. However, the recovery remains fragile because the latest Malaysian supply data points towards a more comfortable physical market. Malaysian Inventories Rise to Eight-Month High Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board provided a significant bearish counterweight to the recovery. August palm oil inventories increased 7.5% to 2.82 million tonnes, the highest level in eight months. At the same time: Production: +1.4% to 1.82 million tonnes Exports: -7.5% to 1.29 million tonnes Inventories: +7.5% to 2.82 million tonnes The combination is important because rising production alongside weaker exports naturally increases the amount of palm oil remaining in storage. For the market, this means the recent price rebound is occurring despite a less supportive underlying Malaysian balance. September Exports Remain Weak Early September shipment data has reinforced concerns about demand. Cargo surveyors reported Malaysian palm oil exports falling between 11.7% and 17.5% during the first 10 days of September compared with the equivalent period in August. If that weakness continues throughout the month, inventories could remain elevated and create additional pressure on futures. The market therefore faces an important test: whether stronger demand from major buyers can offset the current weakness in Malaysian exports. Crude Oil Provides a Biodiesel Tailwind One of the strongest arguments supporting palm oil is coming from outside the vegetable-oil market. Crude oil prices have strengthened amid escalating Middle East tensions, increasing the relative attractiveness of vegetable oils as biodiesel feedstocks. When petroleum prices rise, biofuel economics can improve, potentially increasing demand for palm oil and other vegetable oils. This creates an important link between crude oil, energy markets and agricultural commodities. Supply and Demand Balance Market FactorImpact on Palm OilCrude oil prices higherBullishBiodiesel competitivenessBullishBargain huntingBullishDry conditions in Southeast AsiaBullishReduced fertiliser useBullishMalaysian inventories +7.5%BearishMalaysian exports -7.5%BearishEarly September exports weakerBearishHigher Malaysian productionBearish Weather Creates a Longer-Term Supply Risk Despite the bearish inventory data, supply concerns have not disappeared. Unusually dry conditions across parts of Indonesia and Malaysia, combined with reduced fertiliser application, could eventually affect yields. The impact may not be immediately visible in production figures because weather and fertiliser decisions can take time to feed through into crop output. This means traders are effectively looking at two different timeframes. Near term: inventories are high and exports are weak. Medium term: weather and lower fertiliser use could reduce production growth. That conflict is helping to keep volatility elevated. China Demand Becomes the Next Test China remains one of the world's major palm oil buyers, making its economic activity an important demand indicator. Traders are therefore watching China's August economic data for evidence of whether domestic activity is strengthening or weakening. Stronger industrial and consumer activity could support vegetable-oil demand, while disappointing data could reinforce concerns about demand growth. The Chinese data therefore has the potential to influence palm oil alongside the commodity's more immediate supply and biodiesel fundamentals. Currency Hedger: Palm Oil Is Also an FX and Energy Story Currency Hedger Market Intelligence: Palm oil's price direction cannot be viewed independently from currency and energy markets. Malaysia and Indonesia are major palm oil producers, meaning movements in their currencies can influence producer revenues and export competitiveness. At the same time, palm oil competes with other vegetable oils and fossil fuels. A stronger crude oil market can improve biodiesel economics, while currency movements can alter the relative attractiveness of different origins for international buyers. For global traders, this creates a three-way relationship between palm oil prices, energy markets and foreign exchange. A weaker producer currency can partially offset lower dollar-denominated commodity prices for exporters, while a stronger currency can have the opposite effect. Currency Hedger therefore sees the current palm oil market as part of a broader macroeconomic chain linking Middle East energy risk → crude prices → biodiesel economics → vegetable-oil demand → producer currencies. What Traders Are Watching Next The key variables for palm oil markets are: Malaysian monthly production Malaysian palm oil inventories Export shipments during the remainder of September Indonesian production and export policy Weather conditions across Southeast Asia Fertiliser usage and future yields Crude oil prices Rival soybean and rapeseed oil prices China's economic activity and palm oil demand MYR and IDR currency movements Today Markets View Palm oil's rebound above MYR 4,850 per tonne is being driven more by renewed buying interest and external energy-market support than by a clear improvement in the physical supply balance. The latest Malaysian data is still bearish: inventories have reached an eight-month high, production has increased and exports have fallen sharply. The more interesting question is whether these bearish conditions persist long enough to overwhelm the longer-term risks created by dry weather and lower fertiliser use. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets: “Palm oil is caught between a bearish physical balance and a more supportive energy market. The rise in Malaysian inventories and the decline in exports suggest that supply is currently outpacing demand, but higher crude prices are improving the economics of palm-based biodiesel. The next major test is whether weaker exports persist or whether energy prices and Chinese demand begin to tighten the balance again.” Bottom Line Malaysian palm oil has rebounded above MYR 4,850 per tonne, but the recovery faces significant resistance from rising inventories and weaker exports. August inventories climbed 7.5% to 2.82 million tonnes, while exports fell 7.5% to 1.29 million tonnes. Early September shipments have also remained weak. At the same time, higher crude oil prices, biodiesel demand and potential weather-related production risks are preventing the market from becoming decisively bearish. For now, palm oil remains a battle between near-term surplus conditions and medium-term supply and energy risks. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets. Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence.

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Cocoa Prices Retreat as Ghana Farmgate Increase Triggers Short-Covering and Supply Concerns

Today Markets Analysis: Cocoa prices have retreated towards the end of the week after a brief mid-week recovery, with the market continuing to balance improving supply prospects against renewed concerns over West African production. Ghana's proposal to increase its 2026/27 cocoa farmgate price by around 6% has encouraged some short-covering while raising concerns that higher producer prices could influence the pace at which farmers release cocoa into the market. The move comes after an exceptionally volatile year for cocoa, with London futures trading across a very wide range as the market moved from extreme supply shortages towards expectations of a more balanced global market. Cocoa Prices Retreat After Mid-Week Recovery New York cocoa was trading around $5,912.65–$5,913 per metric tonne in the latest market assessment. The London market provides another important benchmark. ICE London cocoa futures were around £4,114 per tonne on September 11, down from the previous close of £4,153. The contract's 52-week range was approximately £1,997–£5,250 per tonne, illustrating just how dramatically cocoa prices have moved over the past year. The International Cocoa Organization's daily data also shows the London market moving substantially lower from July levels. London futures averaged £4,154.67 per tonne on July 17, compared with around £3,901 on July 27 before subsequently recovering into September. London Cocoa Futures MeasureLondon CocoaLatest referenced price~£4,114/tonnePrevious close£4,15352-week high£5,25052-week low£1,99752-week change~-18%Contract size10 tonnes The one-year comparison is particularly important. Despite the recent rebound, London cocoa remains significantly below its 52-week high, reflecting the market's transition from extreme shortage fears towards a more uncertain supply-demand outlook. Ghana's 6% Farmgate Proposal Changes the Supply Equation Ghana's cocoa regulator has proposed increasing the price paid to farmers for the 2026/27 season by approximately 6%, taking the proposed farmgate price to 2,737 Ghanaian cedis per 64kg bag, from 2,587 cedis. The proposal still requires formal approval, but the announcement has already attracted market attention. The higher price could encourage farmers to sell through official channels, but it also creates a different concern: if producers believe prices could rise further, some may delay selling in anticipation of better returns. There is also a cross-border dimension. Ghana's proposed price would create a significant differential with neighbouring Ivory Coast, potentially increasing incentives for cocoa to move across borders. Industry estimates suggest substantial volumes of Ghanaian cocoa were already diverted into neighbouring countries during the previous season. West African Production Remains the Key Risk The market is not simply dealing with a pricing-policy issue. Ghana's cocoa board has indicated that the country's 2026/27 crop could fall by at least 16% to around 650,000 tonnes, compared with more than 750,000 tonnes previously. Weather and disease are important contributors, with renewed El Niño risks, adverse weather and black pod disease adding uncertainty to the production outlook. Ivory Coast is facing similar concerns, with estimates for the country's 2026/27 crop also being revised lower by some analysts. That creates an important contradiction for cocoa traders: Short-term supply may be improving globally, while production risks for the next crop remain significant. Global Supply and Demand Outlook The cocoa market is moving towards a more balanced environment after the extraordinary supply shock that drove prices to historic highs. However, forecasts remain divided because production estimates are highly sensitive to weather conditions in West Africa. The major factors are: FactorPotential Market ImpactHigher Ghana farmgate pricePotentially bullishLower Ghana productionBullishLower Ivory Coast production estimatesBullishEl Niño riskBullishDisease pressureBullishHigh global inventoriesBearishWeak chocolate demandBearishHigh cocoa prices reducing consumptionBearishImproved supply expectationsBearish Demand remains a major constraint. Chocolate manufacturers have faced exceptionally high cocoa costs and have been adjusting purchasing behaviour, while elevated retail prices can eventually reduce consumer demand. This creates a feedback mechanism: high cocoa prices encourage additional supply but simultaneously incentivise manufacturers and consumers to reduce demand. Recent market analysis has highlighted the return of supply-surplus expectations alongside still-elevated inventories, although weather risks have again made the 2026/27 outlook less certain. European Traceability Rules Add Another Supply Risk Another issue that could become increasingly important is regulation. Ivory Coast, which accounts for roughly 40% of global cocoa production, is introducing a new traceability system ahead of the European Union's anti-deforestation rules taking effect on January 1, 2027. The system is designed to establish the origin of cocoa, but traders and cooperatives have reported difficulties implementing the new technology and documentation requirements. Because Ivory Coast sends around 70% of its cocoa exports to Europe, disruption during the transition could affect the physical market even if global production itself remains adequate. Currency Hedger: Cocoa's FX Connection Currency Hedger Market Intelligence: Cocoa is also an important currency story because the world's major producers operate in currencies that can move substantially against the US dollar and British pound. For Ghanaian producers, a stronger cocoa price in dollar terms does not automatically translate into the same increase in local purchasing power. The relationship between cocoa prices, the Ghanaian cedi and producer pricing can influence farmer selling behaviour and government pricing decisions. For international cocoa buyers, the GBP/USD and USD/GHS exchange rates can also affect the effective cost of cocoa depending on the market and settlement currency. This is particularly relevant for European manufacturers and traders. A weaker pound can alter the sterling value of London cocoa futures, while a stronger US dollar can influence the cost of dollar-denominated cocoa for international buyers. Currency Hedger therefore sees cocoa as more than a commodity-price story. It is also a combination of commodity risk, currency risk, producer economics and inflation exposure. What Traders Are Watching Next The next major variables for cocoa markets include: Ghana's final decision on the proposed 6% farmgate increase 2026/27 Ghana and Ivory Coast production estimates El Niño developments across West Africa Black pod disease and other crop-health indicators Farmer selling rates Global cocoa inventories European chocolate demand European traceability implementation London and New York futures spreads GBP/USD and producer-currency movements Today Markets View The cocoa market is no longer trading purely on scarcity. The extraordinary rally of the previous cycle has given way to a much more complicated battle between improving supply expectations and renewed production risks. The proposed Ghanaian farmgate increase adds another layer to that equation. Higher producer prices could encourage official selling, but they could also change farmer behaviour and widen the price differential with neighbouring Ivory Coast. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets: “Cocoa has moved from a straightforward supply-shortage story into a much more complicated market. Prices have fallen substantially from their highs, but that does not mean the underlying supply risks have disappeared. Ghana's proposed 6% farmgate increase, declining production estimates and renewed El Niño concerns are all reminders that the 2026/27 balance remains uncertain. At the same time, weak demand and high inventories are preventing the market from simply returning to its previous bullish trend.” Bottom Line Cocoa prices remain significantly below their 52-week highs, with London cocoa around £4,114 per tonne compared with a 52-week high of approximately £5,250. The market is being pulled in two directions. Higher inventories, cautious chocolate demand and improved supply expectations are bearish, while West African production risks, El Niño, disease and Ghana's proposed 6% producer-price increase provide potential support. The result is a cocoa market that remains highly volatile and particularly sensitive to changes in production forecasts. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets. Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence.

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Arabica Coffee Prices Fall to Seven-Week Low as Brazil Harvest Boosts Supply

Today Markets Analysis: Arabica coffee prices have fallen to a seven-week low as strong Brazilian harvest output increases global supply and puts renewed pressure on prices. The larger crop is improving availability and reducing supply-cost concerns, leaving the market increasingly focused on whether demand can absorb the additional production. Brazilian Harvest Weighs on Coffee Prices Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange settled around 284 to 289.95 cents per pound, with prices falling to their lowest level in approximately seven weeks. The main pressure is coming from Brazil, the world's dominant coffee producer. Strong harvest output is increasing the volume of coffee entering the global market, easing concerns over near-term availability. Higher production can also reduce the cost pressure faced by roasters and traders, particularly when inventories and export flows remain healthy. Supply Growth Changes the Market Balance The Brazilian crop is becoming an increasingly important factor for coffee prices because stronger production gives international buyers more supply options. For the market, this creates a relatively straightforward dynamic: Market FactorImpact on ArabicaStrong Brazilian harvestBearishHigher global coffee availabilityBearishLower supply costsBearishWeakening prices toward seven-week lowsBearishStrong consumer demandPotential support The key question is whether Brazil's stronger harvest represents a temporary increase in supply or the beginning of a more sustained improvement in the global coffee balance. Seven-Week Low Puts Focus on Demand With prices now at a seven-week low, traders will increasingly look beyond production figures and towards demand. If consumption remains strong enough to absorb the additional Brazilian supply, prices could eventually find support. However, if inventories continue building while exports remain strong, the market could face further downward pressure. This makes upcoming Brazilian export data, global inventories and signs of consumer demand particularly important for determining the next direction of Arabica prices. What Traders Are Watching Next The main factors for coffee traders are: Brazilian harvest and export volumes Global coffee inventories Weather conditions across major producing regions Consumer demand and roasting activity Currency movements affecting producer revenues and export competitiveness Today Markets View The coffee market is increasingly being driven by the supply side. Brazil's strong harvest is removing some of the scarcity premium that previously supported Arabica prices, while the move to a seven-week low indicates that bearish sentiment is becoming more established. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets: “The key development in Arabica is the improvement in physical supply. Brazil's strong harvest is giving the market more coffee at a time when prices had been supported by concerns over availability. The question now is whether demand can absorb that additional supply. If exports and inventories continue to rise, the market could remain under pressure, but any disruption to production or logistics could quickly change the balance.” Bottom Line Arabica coffee prices have fallen to a seven-week low as strong Brazilian harvest output increases global supply and reduces supply pressure. Prices around 284–289.95 cents per pound leave the market vulnerable to further declines if Brazilian exports remain strong, although weather, inventories and global demand remain important potential sources of support. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets.

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Energies

September 14, 2026

Brent Crude Jumps to Four-Month High as Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Intensifies Supply Risk

Today Markets Analysis: Brent crude surged toward $108 a barrel, reaching a four-month high after gaining more than 9% last week, as Saudi Arabia shut a major crude pipeline following drone attacks. The disruption has exposed another vulnerability in Middle Eastern energy infrastructure at a time when uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is already keeping oil markets on edge. The Saudi decision comes as diplomatic efforts to establish a temporary shipping corridor through Hormuz have been postponed, leaving the market with fewer immediate alternatives if disruption to the world's most important oil transit route continues. Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Adds Fresh Supply Risk Saudi Arabia suspended operations on its East-West pipeline as a precaution following Thursday's drone attacks. The pipeline is strategically important because it allows Saudi crude to reach Red Sea export terminals without having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day, the route provides Saudi Arabia with an important alternative export channel. Its closure therefore has significance beyond the immediate loss of pipeline capacity. It demonstrates that the region's alternative energy infrastructure is itself becoming exposed to geopolitical risk. Hormuz Remains the Critical Pressure Point The Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of the market's concern. Talks involving Iran and several Gulf nations over establishing a temporary shipping corridor through the strait were postponed, according to Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi. Reports indicated that Saudi Arabia had concerns over the proposal, while Bahrain said it would not participate. The delay means traders still have limited visibility over how energy shipments through Hormuz will develop. For the oil market, this uncertainty is particularly important because Hormuz is not simply another shipping route. It is a critical artery for global energy flows. Any prolonged disruption could therefore have consequences well beyond the Middle East. Brent's 9% Weekly Rally Shows How Quickly Risk Is Being Priced Brent has already gained more than 9% in the previous week, with the latest Saudi pipeline shutdown pushing prices toward $108. The speed of the move suggests that traders are increasingly pricing a geopolitical risk premium rather than simply responding to changes in normal supply and demand fundamentals. The market is now effectively assessing several potential scenarios: Market FactorImpact on BrentSaudi East-West pipeline shutdownBullishStrait of Hormuz uncertaintyStrongly bullishDelayed shipping-corridor talksBullishDrone attacks on infrastructureBullishPotential disruption to Gulf exportsStrongly bullishRestoration of pipeline operationsBearishSuccessful Hormuz agreementBearishDe-escalation of regional conflictBearish The longer the disruption continues, the greater the possibility that the temporary risk premium becomes embedded in physical crude pricing. The Inflation Problem Is Becoming More Important The consequences extend beyond the oil market. A sustained move in Brent toward or above $100 would increase pressure on transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices, particularly if refined-product markets tighten at the same time. That creates a difficult environment for central banks. Higher energy prices can increase headline inflation while simultaneously weakening economic activity through higher household and business costs. For markets, this creates the possibility of stagflationary pressure — weaker growth combined with persistent inflation. That dynamic is particularly relevant for currencies and interest-rate markets. Currency Hedger: Oil Creates a Second Market Shock Currency Hedger sees the oil move as an important development for foreign-exchange markets because a prolonged energy shock can alter both inflation expectations and central-bank policy expectations. For oil-importing economies, a sustained increase in crude prices can deteriorate trade balances and increase imported inflation. For major energy exporters, the opposite can occur as higher export revenues provide additional support to the domestic currency. This means the oil shock is unlikely to affect all currencies equally. The key question for FX markets is therefore not simply “How high can oil go?”, but “Which economies are most exposed to the resulting inflation and trade-balance effects?” That distinction becomes increasingly important if Brent remains above $100 for an extended period. What Traders Are Watching Next The immediate focus will be on: Whether Saudi Arabia restores East-West pipeline operations. Further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Whether a temporary shipping corridor can be established. Iranian and Gulf diplomatic developments. The reaction of major oil-importing economies. Inflation expectations following the surge in energy prices. Central-bank responses to renewed energy inflation. The most important variable may ultimately be duration. A short-lived disruption could produce a substantial but temporary risk premium. A prolonged disruption would represent a much more significant change to the global energy balance. Today Markets View Brent's move toward $108 is increasingly becoming a story about infrastructure vulnerability rather than simply crude supply. The Saudi East-West pipeline was specifically designed to provide an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Its shutdown demonstrates that even alternative routes are vulnerable when geopolitical tensions escalate across the region. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “The most important development is not simply that Brent has reached $108. It is that the market is beginning to question the reliability of the alternative infrastructure designed to protect Gulf energy exports from a Hormuz disruption. If the pipeline remains offline while uncertainty around Hormuz continues, the risk premium in crude could become significantly more persistent.” For oil traders, the next phase of the rally will depend heavily on whether this remains a temporary infrastructure disruption or develops into a broader restriction of Middle Eastern energy flows. For Currency Hedger, the implications extend into FX: sustained oil above $100 could reshape inflation expectations, trade balances and central-bank policy across both energy exporters and importers. Bottom Line Brent crude has climbed toward $108 a barrel, its highest level in four months, following a 9%+ weekly rally. The shutdown of Saudi Arabia's approximately 7 million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline has added another layer of supply risk while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. If disruptions persist, the consequences could extend well beyond crude oil into inflation, interest rates, currencies and global economic growth. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets.Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence.

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Gold Remains Under Pressure as Oil Surge Revives Fed Rate-Hike Bets

Today Markets Analysis: Gold prices struggled near $4,300 an ounce on Monday after falling for three consecutive weeks, as a sharp rise in oil prices strengthened expectations for tighter US monetary policy and reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion. The latest pressure on gold comes from a combination of higher energy prices, persistent inflation and increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. With markets pricing an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on Wednesday, gold is facing a difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Oil Prices Create a New Headwind for Gold The latest move in gold is closely linked to developments in the oil market. Oil prices moved toward four-month highs after Saudi Arabia closed a key pipeline used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz following drone attacks. The disruption has added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global energy market. The relationship with gold is important. Higher oil prices can feed directly into inflation through transportation, energy and production costs. If markets begin to believe that the resulting inflation will remain persistent, central banks may have less room to ease monetary policy. That is particularly significant for gold because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding an asset that does not generate interest. Inflation Keeps the Federal Reserve in Focus US inflation remained firm in August. Consumer inflation held at 3.4% year-on-year, unchanged from July and broadly in line with expectations. However, monthly CPI increased 0.4%, representing the strongest monthly increase in three months. Producer prices also accelerated during August as higher wholesale energy costs added to inflationary pressure. At the same time, labour-market data continued to point toward resilience in employment. The combination of persistent inflation and relatively resilient employment gives the Federal Reserve more justification to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Fed Rate Expectations Pressure Precious Metals Markets are currently pricing an approximately 86% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase on Wednesday. For gold, the issue is not simply whether the Fed raises rates. The bigger question is whether the current inflationary environment forces policymakers to maintain higher interest rates for longer. That creates a challenging environment for precious metals. Gold DriverMarket ImpactHigher oil pricesBearishRising inflation pressureBearishHigher Fed rate expectationsBearishStrong employment dataBearishGeopolitical uncertaintyBullishSafe-haven demandBullishPersistent global riskBullish The important point is that gold still has significant structural support from geopolitical risk, but the immediate macroeconomic environment is working against it. Geopolitical Risk Is Not Enough — For Now Ordinarily, escalating conflict and disruption to major energy routes would be strongly supportive for gold. However, the market is currently dealing with an unusual situation where geopolitical risk is simultaneously pushing oil prices higher and interest-rate expectations higher. That creates a competing force. Gold benefits from uncertainty and safe-haven demand, but it can struggle when the inflationary consequences of that uncertainty lead investors to expect tighter monetary policy. This is why gold has been unable to convert the latest geopolitical developments into sustained upside momentum. What Traders Are Watching Next The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday is likely to dominate the near-term outlook. Traders will be watching: The size of the Fed rate decision. The language used by policymakers. The Fed's assessment of inflation. Any changes to the expected path of future rates. Oil prices and further developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Whether gold can regain momentum above the $4,300 area. The key risk for gold is that another escalation in energy prices produces another upward revision to inflation and interest-rate expectations. Conversely, any evidence that the inflationary shock is temporary could allow gold to recover as investors refocus on geopolitical and safe-haven demand. Today Markets View Gold is currently caught between two powerful forces. Geopolitical instability, supply-chain disruption and heightened uncertainty remain fundamentally supportive for bullion. But those same geopolitical developments are pushing energy prices higher, potentially creating another inflationary impulse that could keep the Federal Reserve more restrictive. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Gold is facing an unusual macroeconomic conflict. Geopolitical risk normally creates a straightforward safe-haven bid, but when that risk simultaneously drives oil prices and inflation expectations higher, it can strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy. For gold, the next major question is whether safe-haven demand can outweigh the pressure created by higher real-rate expectations.” For traders, the Fed decision and the trajectory of oil prices may therefore prove more important than geopolitical headlines alone. Bottom Line Gold remains under pressure near $4,300 an ounce after three consecutive weekly declines. The combination of higher oil prices, persistent US inflation, resilient employment and an 86% probability of a Fed rate hike is currently limiting the upside for bullion. The medium-term safe-haven case remains intact, but gold needs either a moderation in inflation expectations or a decline in US rate expectations to regain stronger upward momentum. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets.

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Energies

September 14, 2026

US Heating Oil Hits Record High as Tight Distillate Supplies Face Fresh Supply Risks

Today Markets Analysis: US heating oil prices have climbed to around $5.10 per gallon, reaching a record high as mounting disruptions across global crude and refined-product supply chains intensify pressure on an already-tight distillate market. With US inventories well below their historical average, refinery capacity close to its limits and the winter heating season approaching, the market is becoming increasingly vulnerable to further supply shocks. Global Oil Disruptions Tighten Refinery Feedstock Supplies Saudi Arabia's closure of its East-West oil pipeline has added another constraint to global crude flows, compounding existing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The combination is raising concerns over the availability of crude reaching refineries and the amount of feedstock available for producing diesel and heating oil. For heating oil, this is particularly important because distillate markets are already operating with relatively limited inventory buffers. Red Sea Disruptions Add Further Pressure The supply risks extend beyond the Gulf. Disruptions along Yemen's Red Sea coast are constraining shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another critical route connecting energy suppliers with international markets. Reduced shipping capacity increases transportation risks and can force cargoes to take longer or more expensive routes. For refined products, that can amplify regional shortages even when global inventories remain available elsewhere. Russian Refinery Attacks Hit Diesel Supplies The distillate market is also facing pressure from Russia. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are reducing refining capacity and adding to concerns over diesel availability, while Russian export restrictions are further limiting international supplies. This creates a particularly challenging environment for heating oil because diesel and heating oil are closely linked within the broader middle-distillate market. A disruption to one part of that supply chain can therefore affect several refined-product markets simultaneously. US Distillate Inventories Remain Deeply Below Average US inventory data highlights just how limited the market's safety cushion has become. According to EIA data, US distillate inventories remained approximately 13% below the five-year average in the week ended September 4. That is significantly tighter than the gasoline inventory position discussed elsewhere in the energy market. Low inventories mean the market has less ability to absorb unexpected refinery outages, shipping disruptions or stronger-than-expected demand. This is particularly important as the northern hemisphere moves toward the winter heating season. Refiners Have Limited Capacity to Respond US refineries were operating at approximately 97.8% of capacity. That leaves relatively little room to increase production further if demand rises or international supplies deteriorate. The market therefore faces a difficult combination: Low distillate inventories. High refinery utilisation. Reduced international refining capacity. Disrupted shipping routes. Increasing seasonal demand. Even if refiners have strong economic incentives to produce more distillates, physical capacity limits their ability to respond quickly. Winter Demand Could Tighten the Market Further The timing of the current price surge is significant. Seasonal agricultural activity is already increasing demand for diesel and other distillate products, while the winter heating season is approaching. That creates the potential for demand to strengthen at precisely the moment when supply buffers are unusually thin. If inventories fail to rebuild before colder weather arrives, heating oil could remain particularly sensitive to even relatively modest disruptions. Heating Oil Market Balance FactorImpact on Heating OilSaudi East-West pipeline closureBullishStrait of Hormuz disruptionsBullishBab el-Mandeb shipping disruptionsBullishRussian refinery attacksBullishRussian export curbsBullishUS distillate inventories 13% below averageStrongly bullishRefinery utilisation at 97.8%BullishAgricultural demandBullishApproaching winter heating seasonBullish Unlike gasoline, where US inventories recently recorded a modest increase, the heating oil market is facing a much more pronounced inventory deficit. What Traders Are Watching Next The heating oil market is likely to remain highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments and US inventory data. Traders will be watching: US weekly distillate inventory changes. US refinery utilisation and production. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi oil infrastructure and pipeline operations. Russian refinery outages and export restrictions. Shipping activity through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. Agricultural diesel demand. Weather forecasts ahead of the winter heating season. The most important question is whether US distillate inventories can rebuild before seasonal winter demand accelerates. Today Markets View Heating oil is entering a potentially dangerous period for consumers and industrial users. The market is already starting from a position of unusually low inventories, while US refineries are operating close to maximum capacity. That means there is limited spare production capability if global supply disruptions intensify. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Heating oil is arguably one of the most vulnerable parts of the energy market right now because the inventory cushion is already so thin. With US distillate stocks 13% below the five-year average and refineries operating at 97.8% of capacity, there is very little room for a major supply disruption to be absorbed without a significant price response. The approaching winter heating season makes the timing particularly important.” Bottom Line US heating oil prices have reached a record high near $5.10 per gallon, reflecting an increasingly tight global distillate market. US inventories remain 13% below the five-year average, while refinery utilisation at 97.8% leaves limited scope to increase production. With Russian refinery disruptions, Middle Eastern supply risks, Red Sea shipping problems and the approaching winter heating season all converging, heating oil could remain one of the most sensitive segments of the energy market. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 14, 2026

European Gas Jumps as Middle East Tensions Persist

European natural gas prices jumped more than 3% to above €82/MWh on Monday, the highest level since December 2022, as tensions in the Middle East persist. Saudi Arabia has closed a critical oil pipeline after drone attacks, while an advance by Yemen’s Houthis fueled concerns over further disruptions to global energy supplies. Meanwhile, a meeting scheduled for later today between Iran and Gulf states to discuss a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was postponed. Europe is struggling to rebuild its gas inventories, with storage levels remaining below historical norms amid curtailed LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf, primarily from Qatar. Although the European Commission recently said there is no immediate risk to gas security this winter, a prolonged disruption to Gulf LNG supplies could tighten the global market further, forcing European buyers to compete more aggressively with Asia, potentially driving prices even higher as heating demand begins to rise.

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Energies

September 14, 2026

US Gasoline Prices Near Seven-Week High as Global Supply Disruptions Intensify

Today Markets Analysis: US gasoline prices have risen to around $3.37 per gallon, approaching a seven-week high as a series of disruptions across the global oil and refining network raise concerns about crude availability and refined-product supplies. From Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea and Russian refineries, multiple supply risks are emerging simultaneously, increasing the pressure on an already tight energy market. Global Supply Disruptions Drive Fuel Prices Higher The latest move in gasoline prices is being driven less by a single disruption and more by the accumulation of several supply risks. Saudi Arabia's closure of its East-West oil pipeline has added to concerns over crude transportation and availability, while continuing attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing uncertainty over Middle Eastern supply. At the same time, disruptions along Yemen's Red Sea coast are affecting shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another strategically important route for global energy flows. The combined effect is a growing risk premium across crude and refined petroleum markets. Russian Refinery Attacks Add Refined-Product Risk The supply problem extends beyond crude oil. Attacks on Russian refineries are creating additional uncertainty around global refined-product supplies. Refinery disruptions can be particularly important for gasoline markets because even when crude remains available, reduced refining capacity can restrict the amount of finished fuel reaching consumers. This distinction matters for US gasoline prices. The market is not simply responding to concerns about crude production; traders are increasingly pricing the possibility of disruptions across the entire supply chain from crude transportation to refining and distribution. US Gasoline Inventories Remain Below Average US inventory data provides another reason for the market to remain sensitive to supply shocks. According to EIA data, US gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels during the week ended September 4. However, inventories remained approximately 5% below the five-year average. That leaves the market with less of a cushion if further disruptions occur. A modest inventory build therefore does not necessarily remove bullish pressure. If stocks remain below their seasonal norm while geopolitical risks increase, even relatively small supply interruptions can have a disproportionate impact on prices. Refiners Have Limited Room to Increase Output US refineries have been operating close to full capacity, but fuel production nevertheless declined. This creates an important constraint. Strong refining margins are already encouraging refiners to maximise production, meaning there may be limited additional capacity available to compensate for further disruptions. In other words, the market has strong economic incentives to produce more gasoline, but the physical refining system may have limited ability to respond. That makes inventory levels and refinery utilisation increasingly important indicators for gasoline traders. Retail Prices Remain Elevated The pressure is also being felt at the pump. According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline reached approximately $4.30 per gallon on September 11. The difference between wholesale gasoline futures and retail prices also highlights the broader transmission mechanism between crude markets, refining margins, inventories, transportation costs and consumer fuel prices. If elevated crude prices persist, the pressure could eventually feed further into transportation costs and broader inflation expectations. Gasoline Market Balance FactorImpact on GasolineSaudi East-West pipeline closureBullishStrait of Hormuz disruptionsBullishRed Sea shipping disruptionsBullishRussian refinery attacksBullishUS inventories +1.3m barrelsBearishInventories 5% below five-year averageBullishRefineries near full capacityBullishDeclining fuel productionBullishStrong refining marginsBullish The balance remains skewed toward higher prices because the bearish inventory build is being outweighed by the market's relatively limited supply cushion and growing geopolitical risks. What Traders Are Watching Next The gasoline market is likely to remain highly sensitive to developments across both crude and refined-product markets. Traders will be watching: Further developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi oil infrastructure and pipeline operations. Shipping activity through the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea. Additional attacks on Russian refineries. Weekly US gasoline inventory changes. US refinery utilisation and gasoline production. Brent and WTI crude prices. Whether gasoline futures can break above the current seven-week range. The critical question is whether the current disruptions remain temporary or begin creating a sustained reduction in global refined-product availability. Today Markets View The gasoline market is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a supply shock. US inventories have improved slightly, but stocks remain below their five-year average while refiners are already operating at high utilisation rates. That means the market has relatively little spare capacity to absorb another major disruption. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “The important development in gasoline is not simply that prices are rising. It is that several independent supply risks are appearing at the same time while US inventories remain below their historical average. Refiners are already incentivised to maximise production, so if crude or refined-product flows are disrupted further, the market may have limited capacity to respond. That creates the potential for gasoline prices to move sharply higher if the geopolitical situation deteriorates.” Bottom Line US gasoline prices have climbed toward $3.37 per gallon, approaching a seven-week high as global energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions intensify. Although US gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels, stocks remain 5% below the five-year average, while domestic refiners have limited room to significantly increase production. With risks emerging across the Middle East, Red Sea shipping routes and Russian refining infrastructure, the gasoline market is increasingly being driven by the possibility of a broader supply disruption rather than a single isolated event. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Forex Trading

September 14, 2026

Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of Fed Meeting

The dollar index rose toward 99.2 on Monday, gaining for a fourth consecutive session as investors prepared for the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting while assessing the impact of surging oil prices. Markets are currently pricing in an 86% probability that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with another hike expected later this year. Data released Friday showed US consumer inflation held steady at 3.4% in August, matching July’s reading and market expectations, while underlying inflation came in above forecasts as core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month. US producer prices also accelerated in August, while labor-market data pointed to continued resilience in employment. Higher oil prices added further inflationary pressure after Saudi Arabia shut down the critical East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz.

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Soybeans Hold Near $13 as Strong Chinese Buying Offsets Record US Crop Forecast

Today Markets Analysis: Soybean futures held around $13 per bushel, close to their highest level since December 2023, as strong Chinese demand and a sharp rise in oil prices provided support despite the USDA raising its forecast for US soybean production to a record level. The market is therefore facing a familiar commodity tension: ample supply on one side and stronger-than-expected demand and energy-market support on the other. Record US Crop Keeps Supply in Focus The USDA's September WASDE report increased its forecast for 2026/27 US soybean production to 4.535 billion bushels, up from 4.519 billion in August. US soybean yields were projected at 52.8 bushels per acre, reinforcing expectations for another substantial American harvest. The USDA also raised the outlook for US ending stocks to 310 million bushels, although that figure was below the 320 million forecast for August. Stocks nevertheless came in above market expectations. The combination suggests that the underlying US supply picture remains relatively comfortable. For soybean bulls, therefore, the challenge is clear: demand needs to remain strong enough to absorb the additional production without allowing inventories to build significantly. China Returns to the US Soybean Market Demand from China is providing an important counterweight. China reportedly purchased approximately 1 million metric tons of US soybeans last week, as the world's largest soybean importer increases purchases ahead of an expected visit by President Xi Jinping to Washington later this month. The timing is significant. Chinese buying has the potential to provide an important source of demand for US exporters at a time when the USDA is forecasting record American production. For the soybean market, the question is not simply how large the US crop will be. It is whether export demand can keep pace with that supply. If Chinese purchases continue at elevated levels, the market could absorb more of the anticipated production than current inventory projections imply. Higher Oil Prices Add Another Layer of Support Soybeans are also receiving support from the energy complex. Oil prices jumped following new Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on shipping in the Gulf, adding to supply concerns after the closure of a key Saudi oil pipeline. Higher crude prices can influence soybean demand because vegetable oils, including soybean oil, are widely used in biofuel production. This creates an additional transmission channel between the energy and agricultural markets. If crude oil remains elevated, biofuel economics could provide additional support for soybean oil demand, indirectly strengthening the broader soybean complex. The Market Is Balancing Three Forces Soybeans are currently being pulled in three different directions: FactorMarket ImpactRecord US production forecastBearishStrong Chinese soybean purchasesBullishHigher oil prices and biofuel demandBullishHigher-than-expected US ending stocksBearishPotential improvement in US exportsBullish The result is a market that remains supported near $13, but without a clear fundamental justification for an unchecked rally. The key distinction is between production potential and realised demand. A record harvest does not automatically mean lower prices if exporters can find buyers for the additional supply. What Traders Are Watching Next The most important signals for soybean traders are likely to be: Chinese purchasing activity: Continued large US soybean purchases would strengthen the demand argument and could provide further support. US export commitments: Strong export sales would help determine whether the additional US crop can be absorbed without a significant increase in inventories. Crude oil prices: Further disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies could strengthen soybean oil and biofuel economics. US harvest conditions: As the harvest progresses, actual yields will become increasingly important compared with USDA estimates. Ending stocks: The market will be watching whether inventory projections begin moving higher or whether stronger demand limits the expected increase. Today Markets View Soybeans are approaching an important fundamental test. The USDA is pointing towards record US production, which should normally create downward pressure on prices. However, stronger Chinese buying and rising energy prices are currently preventing the supply story from dominating the market. The next move may therefore depend less on the size of the US crop itself and more on whether global demand can absorb it. “Soybeans are being supported by a powerful combination of Chinese demand and higher energy prices, but the record US crop means the market still has a substantial supply cushion. The critical question is whether export demand can expand quickly enough to prevent that additional production from translating into higher inventories. For now, the demand story is keeping the bears under pressure.” Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets Bottom Line Soybeans remain near $13 per bushel, supported by strong Chinese purchases and higher oil prices despite expectations for record US production. The market has not yet broken free from its supply constraints, but continued Chinese buying could provide the catalyst for a sustained move higher. For traders, the key question is becoming increasingly straightforward: will stronger global demand absorb America's record soybean crop? Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 14, 2026

Corn Futures Hold Near Multi-Year Highs as US Crop Forecast Falls and Black Sea Risks Persist

Today Markets Analysis: Corn futures are holding around $5.30 per bushel, remaining close to their highest level since mid-2023 as tightening US production estimates and persistent risks to Black Sea grain flows provide support. Traders are now assessing the latest USDA supply-and-demand forecasts alongside growing concerns over Ukrainian export infrastructure and the potential impact on global corn availability. USDA Cuts US Corn Yield and Production Forecasts The latest USDA report provided fresh support for corn prices after lowering its outlook for the 2026/27 US crop. The USDA reduced its US corn yield forecast to 178.5 bushels per acre, down from 180.7 bushels, while projected production was cut to 15.8 billion bushels from 16.013 billion. US ending stocks were also lowered to 1.567 billion bushels, compared with the previous estimate of 1.653 billion. The revisions reflect expectations for a smaller harvest following a period of hot summer weather and continuing concerns surrounding crop conditions. For the market, the significance is straightforward: lower production combined with reduced ending stocks leaves less room for supply disruptions and strengthens the potential sensitivity of prices to further changes in crop estimates. Black Sea Risks Add a Second Supply Threat While the US crop outlook has become less comfortable, the global supply picture is also being influenced by developments in the Black Sea. Continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and logistics infrastructure are threatening the country's ability to move grain efficiently through its traditional export routes. Ukraine has consequently been forced to reroute an increasing portion of exports through the Danube. The disruption does not necessarily eliminate Ukrainian exports, but it can increase logistical costs, extend transportation routes and reduce the efficiency of the country's export network. For corn traders, that creates another layer of supply uncertainty at a time when the US crop outlook has already deteriorated. Argentina Benefits From Disrupted Ukrainian Supply One of the clearest beneficiaries of the disruption is Argentina. Argentine corn exports are expected to reach a record 10 million metric tons during August and September, with stronger demand partly reflecting the gap created by disrupted Ukrainian supplies. This highlights an important feature of the global grain market. Supply disruptions do not automatically translate into permanent shortages. International buyers can shift toward alternative suppliers. However, those adjustments can change trade flows, transportation costs and regional price differentials. Argentina's ability to capture additional demand therefore provides some relief to the global market, but it does not completely remove the underlying geopolitical risk. Corn Market Faces a More Complicated Supply Picture The combination of a lower US harvest estimate and continued Black Sea disruption leaves corn traders balancing two competing forces. On one side, additional Argentine exports and the ability of global buyers to switch suppliers can help prevent a severe supply squeeze. On the other, lower US production, reduced inventories and geopolitical risks affecting Ukrainian exports leave the market more vulnerable to further disruptions. That makes the next round of crop-condition data particularly important. If US production estimates are cut again, or if Black Sea export disruptions intensify, the market could begin pricing a tighter global balance more aggressively. Conversely, improved US crop conditions or a rapid normalisation of Ukrainian export flows could take some of the risk premium out of corn prices. What Traders Are Watching Next The key variables for corn are now increasingly concentrated around US crop yields, ending stocks, Black Sea logistics and global buying patterns. FactorMarket ImplicationLower US yield forecastBullishLower US productionBullishLower US ending stocksBullishUkrainian export disruptionBullishHigher Argentine exportsBearish / offsets supply riskImproved US crop conditionsBearishNormalisation of Black Sea exportsBearish The immediate question is whether the latest USDA reductions represent the beginning of a broader tightening cycle or simply a temporary adjustment to weather-related concerns. Today Markets View Corn is entering an increasingly important phase. At around $5.30 per bushel, prices are already reflecting a meaningful degree of supply concern, but the fundamental picture remains capable of supporting further gains if US production estimates continue to fall or Black Sea disruptions worsen. The key issue is therefore not simply whether corn has bullish fundamentals. It is how much of those fundamentals are already priced into the market. Argentina's record export expectations provide an important counterweight to the US and Ukrainian supply risks, demonstrating that global grain markets can adapt when traditional supply routes are disrupted. But adaptation takes time — and markets tend to price the risk of disruption before the physical shortage actually appears. “Corn is being supported by two separate supply stories: a weaker US crop outlook and continued uncertainty around Black Sea exports. Argentina can absorb some of the displaced demand, but that does not eliminate the risk premium. For traders, the next question is whether the market is approaching a genuine tightening of the global balance or simply pricing temporary supply disruptions.” — Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets The Bottom Line Corn's move towards $5.30 per bushel reflects a market increasingly focused on supply risk. Lower US yield and production forecasts have reduced the cushion available to the world's largest corn producer, while continued disruption to Ukrainian export infrastructure is adding geopolitical uncertainty. Argentina's stronger exports may prevent a more severe global supply squeeze, but the balance remains sensitive to further changes in US crop conditions and Black Sea logistics. For traders, the USDA's next crop revisions and developments in Ukrainian export routes will remain key catalysts for corn prices. Follow Today Markets for continued analysis of agricultural commodities, global supply trends and macroeconomic developments affecting markets. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 13, 2026

When Financial Journalism Starts Telling Readers What to Think

Today Markets Analysis: Financial journalism has one fundamental responsibility: to give readers the facts, the numbers and the economic relationships needed to reach their own conclusions. When reporting begins to tell readers which conclusion they should reach, journalism moves away from informing and towards interpretation. That distinction matters more than ever. Across much of the modern media landscape, readers increasingly complain that news coverage feels politically framed. The accusation is often expressed in blunt terms — “left-wing”, “right-wing”, “woke”, “partisan” or “biased”. Some of those labels may be justified in individual cases. But the more interesting question is not whether every journalist belongs to one political camp. It is why apparently factual journalism can increasingly feel political even when the underlying facts are technically correct. The answer is often found not in the facts themselves, but in selection, emphasis, language and context. Facts are not the same as framing A journalist can report ten completely accurate facts and still produce a highly directional article. Consider immigration and the economy. A report could state that immigration increases the available workforce. That can be factually correct. It could also report that population growth increases demand for housing. Also correct. It could report that migrants can fill labour shortages. Correct. It could report that rapid population growth can place additional pressure on housing, healthcare, transport and public infrastructure where supply fails to keep pace. Again, economically logical and potentially measurable. The problem begins when journalism presents one relationship while treating another as politically uncomfortable, irrelevant or morally suspect. The reader is then given facts — but not necessarily the economic framework required to understand them. That is the difference between reporting information and explaining reality. Financial journalism should be particularly careful here because economics is fundamentally about relationships. A number on its own tells us very little. Inflation matters because of its effect on purchasing power. Interest rates matter because of their effect on borrowing, investment, housing and demand. Government spending matters because it must ultimately be financed. Migration matters not simply because the population changes, but because additional people create both additional economic output and additional economic demand. AI matters not simply because companies are investing billions in it, but because it can change productivity, labour demand, wages, capital allocation and ultimately the structure of employment. The journalist's job is to explain those relationships. The problem with the modern opinion-news boundary There has always been opinion journalism. That is not the problem. Readers understand that an editorial, column or opinion programme is supposed to contain a point of view. The problem occurs when the distinction between reporting and interpretation becomes increasingly difficult to identify. The Reuters Institute's 2026 Digital News Report captures part of the problem. Global trust in news has fallen to 37%, the lowest level recorded in its survey since measurement began in 2015. At the same time, social media and video networks have become more important sources of news than television and publishers' own websites and apps. That creates an uncomfortable environment for traditional publishers. They are competing not only against other newspapers and broadcasters, but against millions of commentators, influencers, YouTubers, podcasts and politically aligned creators. The Reuters Institute reports that 27% of its global sample now gets information each week from news creators. These creators are often considered more entertaining and easier to understand than traditional media, although they are also generally viewed as less trustworthy and less impartial. The result is an increasingly competitive information market. And competition changes journalism. The economics of attention Traditional financial newspapers once operated in a relatively straightforward environment. A newspaper had journalists, editors, subscribers and advertisers. The digital economy introduced something much more powerful: attention became measurable. Editors can now see what people click. They can see how long readers remain on an article. They can see which headlines generate subscriptions, which stories are shared and which subjects produce the strongest reactions. That creates an economic incentive to make stories more compelling. And sometimes the most compelling story is not: “Here are the facts and their economic implications.” It is: “Here is what this means.” That distinction is subtle but enormously important. The first gives the reader the tools to form a conclusion. The second gives the reader a conclusion and then supplies the evidence. Neither approach is necessarily dishonest. But they are fundamentally different forms of journalism. The Reuters Institute itself notes that news organisations are operating in an environment where audiences increasingly encounter news through platforms, creators and highly opinionated sources. It also notes that audiences continue to support impartiality in principle even while expressing dissatisfaction with how major issues are covered. That should concern traditional journalism. Language can change the economics of a story One of the least obvious forms of editorial framing is language. Compare: “Government increases spending on welfare.” with: “Government invests in vulnerable households.” The underlying policy may be identical. But the second sentence contains an implicit moral interpretation. The same applies in financial markets. A central bank can: “support economic growth” “stimulate demand” “devalue the currency” “ease financial conditions” Depending on the context, those descriptions may all refer to the same policy decision. Similarly, a company can: “cut costs” “restructure” “streamline its workforce” “reduce headcount” Again, the underlying event may be identical. Words matter because they determine the emotional and political lens through which facts are received. This does not mean journalists should write mechanically or without context. It means they should be conscious of the distinction between describing an event and evaluating it. Selection is often more powerful than bias Perhaps the greatest source of perceived bias is not what a journalist writes. It is what the journalist chooses not to write. Imagine a government announces a major migration programme. One article concentrates on labour shortages. Another concentrates on housing demand. A third focuses on cultural integration. A fourth examines the fiscal contribution of migrants. All four could contain accurate statistics. But readers would come away with four very different impressions. That is why claims of media bias are so difficult to measure. Bias does not necessarily require fabricated information. It can exist through story selection, source selection, headline construction, sequencing and omission of relevant economic relationships. This is particularly important in financial journalism because economic outcomes are rarely one-dimensional. A serious analysis should normally ask: Who benefits? Who pays? What is the short-term effect? What is the long-term effect? What happens to productivity? What happens to prices? What happens to employment? What happens to government finances? What happens if the underlying assumption proves wrong? Those questions are not left-wing or right-wing. They are economics. Financial journalism has a special responsibility There is a reason this matters more in financial journalism than in much political commentary. Readers use financial journalism to make decisions. They allocate capital. They assess businesses. They evaluate governments. They trade currencies, commodities, equities and bonds. They decide whether to buy property. They decide whether economic policy is sustainable. The consequences of bad analysis are therefore measurable. If a journalist tells a reader that a particular government policy is “good”, that is an opinion. If the journalist instead explains: how much the policy costs; who receives the money; how it is financed; what economic activity it is expected to generate; what assumptions underpin the forecast; and what evidence exists that those assumptions are correct; the reader can make the judgement. That is journalism doing its job. The same principle applies to markets Consider a central-bank interest-rate decision. A headline might say: “Central Bank Delivers Relief to Borrowers.” That is an interpretation. A more analytical approach would say: “Central Bank Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points as Inflation Continues to Moderate.” Then explain what the decision means. Mortgage costs may fall. Savings returns may decline. Credit conditions may loosen. The currency may weaken. Asset valuations may rise. Inflationary pressure could return if demand accelerates too quickly. Now the reader has the information necessary to decide whether the decision is positive or negative. That is the difference between financial journalism and financial advocacy. Journalism does not need to be politically neutral to be intellectually honest There is an important distinction here. Nobody should pretend journalists have no opinions. They do. Editors do. Publishers do. Readers do. And different publications have different editorial cultures. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters and other major financial organisations are not identical institutions, and their opinion sections are not the same thing as their news reporting. The problem is not that journalists have political beliefs. The problem arises when those beliefs become invisible within supposedly objective reporting. A reader should be able to distinguish: This is what happened. from: This is what the journalist thinks it means. And from: This is what the journalist thinks should happen next. Those are three different statements. They should not be presented as though they are the same. Why trust is falling The declining trust figures should therefore be taken seriously. The Reuters Institute's 2026 research found that overall trust in news had fallen to 37% globally, while trust in the United States had fallen to just 25%. It also found that 42% of people globally now say they sometimes or often avoid the news. That does not prove that journalists have suddenly become less accurate. It does demonstrate something else: A significant part of the public increasingly feels disconnected from the way news is presented. That distinction is crucial. Trust can be lost without every fact being false. Readers can distrust a publication because they believe the facts have been selectively presented, because they believe certain perspectives are routinely excluded, or because the language used appears to tell them how they should interpret the evidence. And once trust disappears, even accurate reporting becomes less effective. The answer isn't to abandon mainstream journalism There is an equally serious danger on the other side. If traditional journalism becomes too distrusted, people may migrate towards commentators who offer absolute certainty. That creates its own problems. The Reuters Institute finds that news creators are increasingly influential, but audiences generally see them as less trustworthy and less impartial than traditional news organisations. The solution therefore isn't to replace journalists with influencers. It is to make journalism better. More transparent. More analytical. More economically literate. And more willing to show competing consequences of the same policy. The standard should be simple A good financial journalist should be able to say: Here are the facts. Here is the evidence. Here is the economic relationship between them. Here are the assumptions. Here is what we know. Here is what we don't know. And here are the possible consequences. Then let the reader decide. That doesn't mean journalism should become emotionless. It doesn't mean journalists cannot challenge governments, corporations or institutions. It doesn't mean every argument deserves equal weight. And it certainly doesn't mean journalists should avoid uncomfortable conclusions. It means the conclusion should emerge from the evidence rather than the evidence being assembled around the conclusion. Today Markets View Financial journalism should not be a political instruction manual. Its value is precisely that it can give investors and readers something increasingly scarce: a coherent explanation of how the world actually works. Markets do not care whether an economic policy is fashionable. They respond to inflation, interest rates, earnings, productivity, employment, liquidity, debt, supply and demand. Those relationships exist regardless of political ideology. The same principle should apply to journalism. If immigration increases the labour force, explain the effect on labour supply. If it increases population, explain the effect on housing demand. If AI increases productivity, explain what happens to employment and wages. If government spending supports demand, explain how it is financed. If interest rates fall, explain who benefits and who loses. Do not hide the uncomfortable relationship simply because one side of the political debate may dislike the implication. Give the reader the facts. Explain the economics. Show the competing consequences. Then let the reader think. That is not anti-left. It is not anti-right. It is simply what good financial journalism should be. “The job of financial journalism isn't to tell readers what they should think. It's to give them enough of the facts and economic relationships to think for themselves.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 13, 2026

Europe’s Labour Paradox: More Workers, or More Productive Workers?

Today Markets Analysis: Europe has spent years treating demographic decline as fundamentally a shortage of people. But the economic problem is more complicated. A larger population does not automatically mean a more productive economy. As artificial intelligence, automation and productivity-enhancing technology change the amount and type of labour businesses require, Europe faces a more fundamental question: should it be maximising the number of workers, or the economic value of each additional worker? Europe is ageing. Birth rates are low, populations are becoming older and many industries genuinely face labour shortages. That part of the argument is straightforward. But the policy response has increasingly focused on increasing the supply of people available to work. The more difficult economic question is whether population growth and productivity growth are the same thing. They are not. More people means more labour — but also more demand An additional worker can add to economic output, tax receipts and the available labour supply. But that same person also becomes an additional consumer of housing, healthcare, transport, energy, food, education and public infrastructure. That is not a political opinion. It is basic economics. If a country has five million residents and its population rises significantly while the supply of housing, hospitals, schools, roads and other infrastructure does not increase at the same rate, the additional population creates additional demand against a constrained supply of resources. The result can be higher prices, greater congestion and pressure on public services. Housing provides perhaps the clearest example. EU house prices increased 5.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while rents increased 3.0%. Over the period from 2015 to Q3 2025, EU house prices had risen 64.9% and rents 21.8%. Migration is not the only reason for those increases. Housing construction, planning restrictions, financing conditions, investment demand, income and demographics all matter. But there is no economic mystery surrounding the demand effect: more residents require more homes. If supply does not keep up, the additional demand puts upward pressure on scarce housing. The same principle applies to healthcare. More residents mean more potential patients. If the number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and appointments does not increase sufficiently, capacity becomes tighter. Waiting lists can therefore become longer even if the healthcare system itself has not become less efficient. The same calculation applies to roads, public transport, schools and other infrastructure. This is why the economic value of the additional population matters. The worker has to generate more than the worker consumes This is where Europe’s migration debate should become much more economically sophisticated. The relevant question is not simply: “Is this person working?” It should be: “What is this person’s net economic contribution?” That calculation includes several variables: productivity; wages; taxes paid; benefits received; demand for public services; housing demand; healthcare utilisation; infrastructure requirements; participation in the labour force; and the extent to which the worker fills a genuine labour shortage. A highly skilled engineer earning €100,000 and filling a shortage in a strategically important industry represents a very different economic proposition from a low-productivity worker earning €25,000 in a sector where labour supply is already abundant. Both are workers. Their economic contribution is not necessarily equivalent. That distinction is becoming increasingly important. Europe’s own data shows a significant skills difference The argument does not require claiming that all migrants are unskilled. The data does not support that. But neither does the data support the idea that Europe’s additional labour supply is automatically composed of highly skilled workers. Eurostat’s latest migrant integration statistics show that in 2025, 41.1% of non-EU citizens had a low level of educational attainment, compared with 19.5% of nationals. At the other end of the scale, 37.6% of non-EU citizens had tertiary education compared with 45.8% of nationals. There has been substantial improvement. Among non-EU citizens aged 25–34, the share with tertiary education increased from 24.2% in 2014 to 36.7% in 2024. But it remained below the 45.1% recorded among nationals of the reporting countries. That matters because education and skills influence productivity, wages, employment and fiscal contribution. Eurostat’s 2025 figures also show unemployment was substantially higher among people with low educational attainment: 10.5%, compared with 4.7% for medium education and 3.6% for high education. The economic conclusion is therefore fairly obvious: If Europe needs additional workers, it should care about the productivity and skills of those workers — not simply their number. Even highly educated migrants can be underutilised There is another problem that is often overlooked. Migration does not automatically convert education into economic productivity. The ECB reports that in 2024, 40% of non-EU citizens with tertiary education were working in medium- or low-skilled occupations, nearly twice the rate for nationals. The ECB explicitly identifies this mismatch as a drag on productivity because workers employed below their qualification level are not contributing their full potential. This creates an extraordinary inefficiency. Europe can spend years educating or attracting highly qualified people, only to place some of them into jobs that do not use their capabilities. The solution is therefore not merely: “More migration.” It is: “Better matching between migration, skills and economic demand.” The AI equation changes the argument This is where the debate becomes considerably more important. Europe is entering an economy where the amount of labour required to produce a given amount of economic output may fall in some industries. Artificial intelligence is already spreading rapidly. The ECB reported in August 2026 that the proportion of workers using AI at work had increased from 26% in 2024 to 41% in 2025 and 52% in 2026. The adoption gap is also significant: 61% of highly educated workers reported using AI compared with 37% of workers with lower levels of education. The ECB’s research does not suggest that AI has already produced a massive aggregate employment collapse. It does, however, show that AI has the potential to change production processes and employment significantly. In its research covering 5,000 European firms, two-thirds reported that their employees were already using AI, while around one-quarter reported investing in AI. This changes the demographic equation. If one company can eventually produce the same output with 100 AI-assisted employees that previously required 150 employees, simply increasing the labour supply is not necessarily the optimal economic strategy. The value increasingly lies in productivity per worker. Europe may have a labour shortage — but also a productivity problem This is the central paradox. Europe genuinely has labour shortages. The ECB reports that foreign workers accounted for more than half of euro-area labour-force growth over the past four years, equivalent to approximately 4.2 million additional workers, increasing their share of the euro-area labour force from around 8% in 2021 to 10%. So migration has clearly expanded the labour supply. But the same ECB analysis warns that matching workers to appropriate occupations remains a major challenge. That distinction is crucial. Europe can solve a headcount problem without necessarily solving a productivity problem. And if the additional population requires housing, healthcare, education, transport and other public infrastructure, the economic return from additional labour needs to be considered against those costs. The housing calculation cannot simply be ignored This is perhaps where the political debate has become detached from economics. Governments cannot increase population indefinitely and assume infrastructure will automatically catch up. If 500,000 additional people arrive in a country, those people do not arrive carrying 500,000 newly constructed homes with them. They compete for the existing housing stock while new housing is built. If construction cannot keep pace, prices rise. The same principle applies to healthcare capacity. It applies to schools. It applies to roads. It applies to public transport. It applies to energy and water infrastructure. The fact that migration can also generate economic activity does not invalidate this calculation. It means policymakers have to calculate both sides of the equation. The fiscal question is even more important There is an uncomfortable question at the centre of this debate: What is the lifetime fiscal contribution of the additional worker? A high-income professional paying substantial income tax, social contributions and consumption taxes may make a very different contribution to public finances than a low-income worker requiring subsidised housing, healthcare, education or other public expenditure. This does not mean that low-income workers have no economic value. They clearly perform necessary work. But policymakers should stop pretending that every additional worker produces the same economic return. The marginal economic contribution matters. And so does the marginal cost. Europe should compete for skills, not simply population Europe’s demographic problem is real. But there are several ways to respond to an ageing population. One is to increase immigration. Another is to increase productivity. Another is to encourage higher labour-force participation. Another is to invest in automation and AI. Another is to extend productive working lives. Another is to improve education and vocational training. The strongest strategy is likely to involve all of these, rather than treating migration as the primary solution to every demographic problem. And immigration itself can be designed around economic requirements. If Europe has shortages in: doctors; nurses; engineers; AI specialists; software developers; skilled construction; energy; advanced manufacturing; scientific research; financial technology; then immigration policy should actively compete for those skills. That is fundamentally different from pursuing population growth for its own sake. The productivity premium is becoming more important The next decade could make this distinction even more important. AI is likely to increase the productivity of some workers while reducing demand for some routine occupations. Highly educated workers are currently much more likely to use AI at work than lower-educated workers. That does not mean every highly educated worker will prosper or every low-skilled worker will lose their job. It means the economic premium attached to skills that complement technology may become increasingly important. Europe therefore faces a choice. It can compete globally for people. Or it can compete globally for productive human capital. Those are not necessarily the same thing. Today Markets View Europe should stop measuring the success of migration policy primarily through the number of people entering the labour force. The more important metric is economic output and fiscal value generated per additional worker relative to the additional demand placed on housing, healthcare, infrastructure and public finances. Migration can be economically beneficial when it fills genuine labour shortages, raises productivity and expands the tax base. But population growth without sufficient productivity growth can create a different problem: more people competing for limited housing and public capacity. That is particularly relevant when Europe is simultaneously entering an era of rapid AI adoption. The question facing policymakers is therefore no longer simply: “How many workers does Europe need?” It is: “What kind of workers does Europe need, and how much economic value can each additional worker create?” “Europe has spent years treating demographics primarily as a numbers problem. But the next phase of the European economy may make productivity far more important than population size. If AI can allow businesses to produce more with fewer people, the economic case for simply maximising the labour supply becomes weaker. The objective should be to attract, develop and retain workers whose skills complement Europe’s future economy — while ensuring that housing, healthcare and infrastructure expand alongside population where population growth is required.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets The question Europe cannot avoid Europe does need workers. But it does not necessarily need more workers at any economic cost. It needs workers who can contribute to productivity, fill genuine shortages, generate tax revenue and participate effectively in the economy. At the same time, policymakers need to recognise the other side of the equation: every additional resident creates additional demand. That demand has to be accommodated. The economic calculation is therefore simple in principle, even if politically difficult in practice: Additional economic output + additional tax revenue + productivity gains versus Additional housing + healthcare + infrastructure + public expenditure + integration costs. The migration policy that produces the largest population is not necessarily the migration policy that produces the strongest economy. And as AI continues to change the relationship between labour and output, Europe’s most important demographic question may ultimately become: Does Europe need more workers — or more productive workers? Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Earnings

September 12, 2026

Adobe Delivers Strong Results, but Falls Short of Expectations. The Market Fears the Impact of AI

Today Markets Analysis: Adobe delivered another strong quarter, with double-digit revenue growth, record operating cash flow, very high margins and continued expansion in recurring revenue. Yet Adobe shares came under pressure following the results as investors focused on guidance for the next quarter, which fell short of elevated market expectations. The reaction highlights an increasingly important issue for Adobe: the market is no longer judging the company solely on the strength of its existing business. Investors are increasingly asking whether artificial intelligence will ultimately strengthen Adobe’s ecosystem or undermine the software model that has made the company one of the most profitable names in the creative industry. For now, Adobe’s financial results provide little evidence of a business in decline. Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth Adobe generated USD 6.76 billion in revenue during the third quarter of fiscal 2026, representing growth of 13% year over year. Net income reached USD 1.83 billion, while non-GAAP earnings per share came in at USD 6.13. The company also maintained an exceptionally strong operating margin of approximately 44%. These figures matter because the current debate around Adobe can sometimes obscure the underlying performance of the business. Adobe continues to operate a large, growing and highly profitable software ecosystem. There is currently no obvious collapse in customer demand, profitability or cash generation. Record Cash Flow and Growing Recurring Revenue Adobe's operating cash flow reached a record USD 2.52 billion during the quarter. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased to USD 27.5 billion, up 10.2% year over year. This remains one of the strongest aspects of Adobe's business model. The company generates significant recurring revenue from a deeply embedded software ecosystem spanning creative professionals, enterprises and individual users. That creates a substantial financial buffer as Adobe navigates the rapid development of generative AI. The question is therefore not whether Adobe currently has a profitable business. It clearly does. The question is whether that business can maintain its pricing power and customer base as AI makes increasingly sophisticated creative tools available at lower prices. AI Is Becoming a Revenue Opportunity There is an important counterargument to the idea that AI is simply a threat to Adobe. Adobe's AI-first ARR increased approximately 150% year over year, indicating that artificial intelligence is already beginning to generate meaningful commercial value for the company. Adobe is integrating AI capabilities across products including Firefly, Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro and Acrobat. This creates a potentially powerful strategic advantage. Rather than competing against AI from the outside, Adobe can incorporate AI directly into the software ecosystem that millions of customers already use. The challenge is monetisation. Adobe needs to demonstrate that AI features increase the value of its subscriptions rather than simply replacing functionality that customers were already paying for. The AI Threat Has Not Yet Appeared in the Financial Statements This is where the market reaction becomes particularly interesting. Investors have spent considerable time asking whether AI could eventually disrupt Adobe's core business. Generative AI can already perform tasks that historically required professional design software, including image creation, editing, text generation and increasingly sophisticated video and content production. That creates genuine long-term risks. Customers could potentially require fewer traditional tools. New competitors could offer cheaper alternatives. Some functionality that previously justified a paid subscription could eventually become widely available through low-cost or free AI platforms. But these remain forward-looking risks rather than evidence of current deterioration. Adobe's latest results still show: Revenue growing at 13% year over year ARR increasing by more than 10% Operating margins around 44% Record operating cash flow AI-first ARR growing 150% The financial statements therefore do not yet show a company being displaced by AI. They show a company attempting to monetise it. Guidance Becomes the Problem The immediate reason for the negative market reaction was not a collapse in Adobe's operating performance. It was guidance. Adobe expects fourth-quarter revenue of approximately USD 6.80–6.85 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of USD 6.30–6.35. For the full 2026 financial year, the company expects: Revenue: USD 26.58–26.63 billion Non-GAAP EPS: USD 24.45–24.50 Operating margin: approximately 45% Those numbers remain strong. The problem is that the market had already priced in a considerable amount of strength. When expectations become extremely high, merely delivering strong growth is no longer enough. Companies need to consistently exceed those expectations. Adobe therefore finds itself in a difficult position: its underlying business can continue improving while its shares nevertheless struggle because investors expect even more. Adobe Is Being Priced for the Future The most important distinction for investors is between business performance and market expectations. Adobe's current business remains highly profitable and cash generative. But the market is trying to determine what Adobe will look like several years from now. Will AI: Increase the value of Adobe's existing ecosystem? Create a major new revenue stream through AI-powered products? Put pressure on subscription pricing? Reduce demand for traditional creative software? Or ultimately do all of these things simultaneously? At present, the answer is still unclear. Adobe's strategy suggests the company believes AI can be incorporated into its ecosystem and monetised rather than simply becoming a source of disruption. Why the Sell-Off May Be Overdone From a fundamental perspective, the immediate reaction appears difficult to reconcile with the actual financial performance. Adobe has not reported a material deterioration in revenue. It has not lost its exceptionally high margins. It continues to generate billions of dollars in operating cash flow. ARR continues to grow. And AI-related ARR is expanding rapidly. The market is therefore not selling Adobe because the company's current business has suddenly broken down. It is selling because investors want greater confidence that AI will not eventually weaken the company's competitive position. That distinction is critical. A weaker-than-expected outlook can reinforce the bearish AI narrative, but it does not prove that the narrative is correct. Adobe's Investment Debate AreaCurrent PictureKey Investor QuestionRevenueUSD 6.76bn, +13% YoYCan double-digit growth continue?ARRUSD 27.5bn, +10.2%Can Adobe maintain subscription growth?AI-first ARR+150% YoYCan AI become a major incremental revenue driver?Operating margin44%Can margins remain this high while AI investment increases?Operating cash flowUSD 2.52bnCan cash generation continue growing?Q4 guidanceUSD 6.80–6.85bn revenueIs the outlook conservative or evidence of slowing momentum?AI threatUnproven financiallyWill AI strengthen or cannibalise Adobe's core products? Today Markets View Adobe's latest results present a classic case of strong fundamentals meeting exceptionally high expectations. The company is still growing, highly profitable and generating substantial amounts of cash. More importantly, AI is already becoming a meaningful part of Adobe's commercial strategy, with AI-first ARR increasing 150% year over year. The bearish argument is therefore primarily about the future, rather than the current financial performance. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Adobe's results do not look like the financial profile of a company being displaced by AI. Revenue, recurring revenue, margins and cash generation remain exceptionally strong, while AI-related ARR is growing rapidly. The market is effectively asking a different question: whether these numbers can remain this strong as AI changes the economics of creative software. Until the financial data begins to show meaningful customer erosion or margin pressure, the AI disruption thesis remains a risk scenario rather than an established fact.” The key issue for Adobe now is not whether it can continue generating strong results. It is whether those results are strong enough to overcome the increasingly demanding expectations embedded in its valuation. That makes the coming quarters particularly important. If Adobe can demonstrate that AI is adding value to its ecosystem rather than cannibalising it, the current weakness could eventually prove to be an opportunity. If growth continues to slow while AI competition intensifies, however, investors may become increasingly unwilling to assign Adobe the premium valuation it has historically commanded. For now, the numbers continue to favour Adobe. The market remains focused on what could happen next. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Earnings

September 12, 2026

Oracle Earnings: Strong Cloud Growth, but Cash Flow and Debt Concerns Remain

Today Markets Analysis: Oracle delivered a stronger-than-expected earnings report after the close of the US session on September 10, with particularly impressive growth across its cloud infrastructure business. However, while the headline numbers were positive, the results leave investors with important questions about cash generation, capital expenditure and the quality of Oracle’s rapidly expanding backlog. Oracle shares rose approximately 5–6% in pre-market trading following the release, although the stock remained below Thursday’s opening level after falling as much as 5.3% ahead of the earnings announcement. The results were good. The question is whether they were good enough to materially change the market’s perception of Oracle’s financial position. Revenue Beats, While Earnings Outperform More Clearly Oracle reported revenue of USD 19.34 billion, above expectations of approximately USD 19.05 billion. That represents year-over-year growth of around 30%, although the revenue beat itself was relatively modest given the scale of the company and the expectations surrounding its AI and cloud expansion. The stronger part of the earnings statement came from profitability. Non-GAAP earnings per share reached USD 1.92, compared with expectations of approximately USD 1.73. EPS increased around 24% year over year. However, the improvement in profitability needs some qualification. Oracle’s effective tax rate declined from 20.5% to 16.9%, meaning part of the earnings improvement was supported by a lower tax burden rather than purely by underlying operational performance. For investors, therefore, the headline EPS beat is encouraging, but it should not be viewed in isolation. Cloud Remains the Central Growth Story The most important figures from the earnings release are arguably not revenue or EPS, but Oracle’s cloud growth and remaining performance obligations. Overall cloud revenue increased approximately 62%, reaching USD 11.6 billion and accounting for more than half of total company revenue. More importantly, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) delivered extraordinary growth. OCI revenue increased approximately 121% year over year, accelerating from 93% growth in the previous quarter. That acceleration is significant. It suggests Oracle is continuing to capture substantial demand for cloud infrastructure, particularly from customers requiring large-scale computing capacity for artificial intelligence and other data-intensive applications. The question for investors is increasingly shifting from whether Oracle has demand to whether that demand can ultimately translate into sustainable free cash flow and attractive returns on the capital being invested. RPO Reaches USD 664 Billion Oracle’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) increased to approximately USD 664 billion, slightly above consensus expectations. The figure is enormous and provides considerable visibility into future contracted revenue. However, the size of the backlog alone does not tell investors everything they need to know. The market still needs greater visibility into: Customer concentration The financial quality of major customers Contract duration The timing of revenue recognition Required infrastructure investment Margins associated with those contracts The amount of capital required before those contracts generate meaningful cash returns Oracle therefore has an extraordinary backlog, but the economic value of that backlog cannot be assessed simply by looking at its headline size. Free Cash Flow Provides the Biggest Positive Surprise One of the clearest positive surprises came from free cash flow. Oracle reported negative USD 5.4 billion, compared with expectations of approximately negative USD 9.5 billion. That is a materially better result than the market had anticipated. It suggests that Oracle may be exercising greater discipline over spending and capital deployment than some investors had feared. This is particularly important because Oracle is simultaneously investing heavily in data-centre infrastructure to support its cloud and AI expansion. The critical question now is whether the improvement in free cash flow represents the beginning of a sustainable trend or simply a temporary improvement within an extremely capital-intensive investment cycle. Abilene Investment Progress Management also addressed questions surrounding Oracle’s investments in Abilene. According to management, six of the eight buildings have already been commissioned, while approximately 75% of the targeted capacity is now in place. Oracle delivered approximately 850 MW of data-centre capacity during the quarter. This demonstrates that the company is making tangible progress in converting its enormous infrastructure commitments into operational capacity. However, investors were not provided with sufficient qualitative or financial detail to completely determine how attractive these investments will ultimately be. The infrastructure is being built. The demand appears to be there. The outstanding question is what level of sustainable cash return the infrastructure will generate once fully operational. The Cash Flow Statement Remains the Difficult Part The most difficult element of the results to interpret remains Oracle’s cash-flow profile. Approximately 49% of operating cash flow came from customer prepayments. There is a positive interpretation of this. Customer prepayments provide funding ahead of future service delivery and can reduce some near-term financing pressure. However, they do not eliminate the underlying capital requirements associated with Oracle’s infrastructure expansion. The true economics of the current investment cycle will become much clearer once the newly constructed data-centre capacity is fully operational and begins contributing to revenue and cash generation. Until then, the market is effectively trying to assess the eventual economics of a business that is still in the middle of a massive investment programme. Raised Guidance Strengthens the Bull Case Perhaps the most important signal from management was the increase in forward guidance. Annual EPS guidance was raised by USD 0.05 to USD 8.10, while revenue is expected to reach at least USD 90 billion. This gives investors another reason to remain constructive. Oracle is not simply reporting strong historical cloud growth; management is simultaneously increasing expectations for the year ahead. That combination of accelerating OCI growth, a massive RPO figure and higher guidance represents a compelling growth narrative. But it still needs to be measured against the enormous capital requirements supporting that growth. Oracle: Strong Growth, But Quality Matters The earnings call therefore leaves investors with a mixed but improving picture. The positive elements are clear. Cloud is growing rapidly. OCI growth is accelerating. RPO has reached an extraordinary level. Free cash flow was significantly better than expected, and management raised guidance. However, not every positive number necessarily represents a fundamental improvement in Oracle’s underlying financial position. The lower effective tax rate supported EPS growth. Customer prepayments contributed substantially to operating cash flow. Meanwhile, the company continues to commit enormous amounts of capital to data-centre infrastructure. This makes free cash flow one of the most important metrics to monitor over the coming quarters. Key Oracle Figures MetricReportedExpectation / ContextRevenueUSD 19.34bn~USD 19.05bnRevenue growth~30% YoY—Non-GAAP EPSUSD 1.92~USD 1.73Effective tax rate16.9%20.5% previouslyCloud revenueUSD 11.6bn~62% YoY growthOCI growth121% YoY93% previous quarterRPOUSD 664bnSlightly above consensusFree cash flow-USD 5.4bn~-USD 9.5bn expectedAnnual EPS guidanceUSD 8.10Raised by USD 0.05Revenue guidanceAt least USD 90bnRaised outlook Today Markets View Oracle's results provide enough evidence to keep the long-term AI and cloud growth story alive, but they do not completely remove the financial concerns surrounding the company. The strongest evidence in Oracle’s favour is the combination of 121% OCI growth, a USD 664 billion RPO backlog and substantially better-than-expected free cash flow. The biggest uncertainty remains the conversion of that growth into sustainable cash generation. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Oracle has delivered the kind of cloud growth that investors want to see, particularly with OCI accelerating to more than 120%. The more difficult question is what happens underneath that growth. A USD 664 billion backlog is impressive, but investors ultimately need to see how much capital is required to fulfil those contracts and how much sustainable free cash flow they generate. The improvement in free cash flow is encouraging, but one quarter is not enough to establish a trend.” For investors, Oracle therefore remains a company with exceptional growth potential but equally significant capital requirements. The next stage of the story will be less about whether Oracle can win cloud contracts and more about whether it can convert those contracts into durable, high-quality cash flows. That distinction could become increasingly important for the valuation of Oracle and the wider AI infrastructure trade. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Three Markets to Watch Next Week: USD/JPY, Gold and Nasdaq 100 Face Major Central-Bank Test

Today Markets Analysis: The past week leaves financial markets facing a potentially significant increase in volatility as investors prepare for an unusually concentrated run of central-bank decisions. Oil prices surge more than 8% over five sessions, Brent remains above $104 per barrel, and persistent supply disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure keep inflation risks elevated. At the same time, the latest US CPI reading shifts expectations towards a more hawkish Federal Reserve, contributing to weakness across major US equity indices. The Nasdaq 100 is around 1.4% lower month-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down almost 1.8%, although Friday's session produces an attempt at a rebound. The real test now comes next week. Between Wednesday and Friday, markets face policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The unusual concentration of major central-bank events creates the potential for heightened volatility across foreign exchange, precious metals and equity markets. Against that backdrop, three markets stand out for Monday and the sessions that follow: USD/JPY, Gold and the Nasdaq 100 (US100). 1. USD/JPY — Yen Strength Faces a Major BoJ Test USD/JPY enters the new week around 153.30, after the dollar loses significant ground against the Japanese yen. The move reflects both changing US policy expectations and growing speculation that the Bank of Japan is moving further towards monetary-policy normalisation. The BoJ decision on Friday, September 18, is therefore likely to become one of the week's defining events. Markets expect the Japanese central bank to raise its main policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, representing another step away from the ultra-loose monetary policy that has characterised Japan for decades. Before the decision, investors receive Japan's CPI inflation data at 1:30 AM on Friday, with consensus looking for annual inflation to accelerate to 2.0% from 1.9%. A stronger inflation reading would provide additional justification for further tightening. The Fed-BoJ Comparison Is Crucial For USD/JPY, however, the most important factor may not be the BoJ decision in isolation. The market will compare the Bank of Japan's communication with the Federal Reserve's decision and guidance earlier in the week. Expectations for Japanese tightening are already relatively aggressive. That means the bar for further yen appreciation is high. If the BoJ raises rates and clearly signals that additional increases remain possible, pressure could return to yen-funded carry trades. The carry trade involves borrowing in a low-yielding currency such as the yen and investing in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. When Japanese rates rise and the yen strengthens, those positions become increasingly expensive to maintain. That creates the potential for further position unwinding. However, the risk works in both directions. If the BoJ delivers a hike but provides a softer message regarding future increases, investors could quickly conclude that the tightening cycle is already well priced. That could weaken the yen and send USD/JPY higher again. Monday Watch For Monday, the immediate focus is whether the recent yen strength can extend or whether USD/JPY begins stabilising ahead of the major central-bank decisions. The direction of US Treasury yields, Federal Reserve expectations and positioning in yen-funded carry trades should remain particularly important. 2. GOLD — Fed Guidance Becomes More Important Than the Rate Decision Gold enters the new week close to historically elevated levels after breaking above $4,389 per ounce on Friday and gaining more than 1.6% during the session. Despite Friday's recovery, gold remains slightly lower over the full week. The metal has recently faced pressure from a stronger US dollar and elevated bond yields, but the underlying bullish forces remain significant. The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday therefore represents the central catalyst. Markets expect the Fed to maintain rates at approximately 3.75%, meaning the policy decision itself may already be largely reflected in prices. The greater market-moving event could therefore be the economic projections and the tone of the Fed's communication. Gold Faces Conflicting Forces Gold remains caught between two opposing forces. Higher interest rates and elevated real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, creating a bearish influence. At the same time, falling real yields, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns surrounding global financial and fiscal stability can increase demand for bullion. Those competing forces are likely to become particularly visible next week. The latest inflation data has strengthened expectations for a hawkish Fed, but if the central bank communicates a greater willingness to ease than markets currently anticipate, gold could regain significant upside momentum. A move towards recent local highs would then become possible. Conversely, a more restrictive Fed message combined with higher Treasury yields could trigger a correction towards the $4,250–$4,300 support region. US Retail Sales Add Another Test Wednesday also brings US retail-sales data at 2:30 PM, ahead of the Fed decision. Markets expect monthly retail sales to rebound by approximately 0.9%, following a 0.6% decline previously. A strong number would reinforce the argument that the US economy remains sufficiently resilient to tolerate restrictive monetary policy. That could strengthen the dollar and Treasury yields before the Fed even begins its communication. Monday Watch Gold therefore begins Monday in a technically and fundamentally important position. The key question is whether investors continue to treat elevated geopolitical and fiscal risks as a reason to hold precious metals despite high yields. If gold remains resilient while yields stay elevated, that would be an important signal heading into Wednesday's Fed decision. 3. US100 — Technology Stocks Face the Fed The Nasdaq 100 remains under pressure on a monthly basis, falling approximately 1.4%, although the US100 contract stages a rebound during Friday's session. The earnings season is largely behind the market, leaving monetary policy and geopolitical developments as the dominant potential catalysts. That makes the Federal Reserve particularly important for technology stocks. Many technology companies are valued on expectations of strong future cash flows and growth. Consequently, changes in interest-rate expectations can have an outsized effect on their valuations. Higher rates increase discount rates and can reduce the present value investors assign to future earnings. Oil Creates an Additional Problem The sharp rise in oil prices adds another layer of risk. Brent remains above $104 per barrel after gaining more than 8% during the week. If elevated energy prices persist, inflation expectations could remain under pressure, potentially reducing the Federal Reserve's room to ease monetary policy. That creates a difficult environment for high-growth technology stocks. However, the opposite scenario is also possible. If the Fed delivers a less restrictive message and investors interpret the policy outlook as increasingly supportive of lower rates, US100 could have considerable room for a rebound. US Data Could Reinforce Volatility Thursday provides another important test with the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. The consensus expects the index to fall sharply to 28.6 from 47.4. A significantly weaker reading could raise concerns about a slowdown in US industrial activity. Weekly jobless claims are also released on Thursday, followed by US industrial-production data on Friday. This creates an unusual combination for technology investors: monetary policy, growth data and geopolitical developments all arrive within a short period. Monday Watch The first question for Monday is whether Friday's rebound can continue. A sustained recovery would suggest that investors are willing to look through higher rates and geopolitical risks. Failure to extend the rebound, however, would leave the Nasdaq 100 vulnerable to renewed selling if the Fed adopts a more cautious or hawkish tone. What Else Is on the Calendar? The three central-bank decisions dominate the week, but several secondary economic releases could influence positioning before and after them. Tuesday German ZEW economic expectations are expected to improve to 40.0 from 34.2, providing an early indication of European investor sentiment. Chinese industrial production is also expected to accelerate to approximately 4.8%, making the release relevant for industrial commodities and global growth expectations. Wednesday UK CPI inflation is expected to rise to 3.1% from 2.9%. The timing is important because the data arrives shortly before the Bank of England's Thursday decision, with markets expecting the UK policy rate to remain at approximately 3.75%. A stronger inflation reading could complicate the Bank of England's communication. US DOE crude-oil inventories will also be closely watched after the exceptional weekly rally in energy prices. Thursday and Friday The Bank of England decision takes centre stage on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday. This creates the potential for a significant repricing across major currency pairs, particularly where expectations for future rate differentials are already elevated. The Three Markets That Matter Most MarketKey DriverBullish CatalystMain RiskUSD/JPYBoJ vs Fed policy divergenceSofter BoJ guidanceFurther Japanese tighteningGoldFed guidance, yields & geopoliticsDovish Fed / falling real yieldsHawkish Fed / higher yieldsUS100Fed, yields & growthDovish policy signalHawkish Fed / higher oil Today Markets View The coming week has the potential to be one of the most important weeks for global markets in September. Three major central banks deliver decisions within three days, while investors are already dealing with elevated oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. For USD/JPY, the critical issue is whether the Bank of Japan validates increasingly aggressive expectations for policy normalisation. For gold, the focus shifts towards whether the Federal Reserve's communication reinforces higher-rate expectations or instead opens the door to a more accommodative policy path. For US100, the central question is whether Friday's rebound marks the beginning of a recovery or simply provides temporary relief before another test of technology valuations. “Next week is less about individual economic releases and more about the interaction between monetary policy, inflation and market positioning. With the Fed, BoE and BoJ all communicating within three days, the market has very little room for complacency. USD/JPY, gold and the Nasdaq 100 offer three very different ways of measuring how investors respond to that policy shock.” — Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets Monday's Starting Point The new week begins with markets already carrying significant positions. Oil remains elevated. Inflation expectations remain sensitive. US equities are attempting to recover. Gold is holding at historically high levels. And the yen has strengthened materially against the dollar. That leaves Monday as an important positioning session before the central-bank decisions arrive. Traders should therefore watch whether the moves seen on Friday gain confirmation at the beginning of the new week — particularly in USD/JPY, gold and US100. The coming sessions could determine whether recent market moves develop into broader trends or prove to be temporary reactions ahead of the central-bank decisions. Follow the developing macroeconomic, equity and commodities picture with Today Markets, with additional FX and hedging intelligence available through Currency Hedger. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Weekly Market Recap: Wall Street Shrugs Off Hot Inflation as Oil Retreats Despite Geopolitical Risks

Today Markets Analysis: Global markets close the week with investors balancing hotter-than-expected US inflation, shifting Federal Reserve expectations, falling oil prices and escalating geopolitical risks. Wall Street stages a strong rebound despite the renewed prospect of tighter monetary policy, while precious metals recover and crude oil records a sharp correction after a powerful weekly rally. As markets move into the weekend, attention now turns to Monday's opening, with investors assessing whether Friday's risk appetite can continue or whether the inflation and geopolitical risks that have dominated the week return to the forefront. The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision remains the central macroeconomic event, while developments across the Middle East, energy markets, European monetary policy and technology stocks are likely to shape sentiment at the start of the new week. Macroeconomics: Inflation Raises Fed Pressure, but Consumers Remain Resilient The latest US inflation data provides a hawkish signal heading into the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. August core inflation comes in above expectations, while the unofficial SuperCore inflation measure rises 0.5% month-on-month, taking its annual rate to approximately 3%. The figures reinforce concerns that underlying price pressures remain persistent. Markets consequently move close to fully pricing a Federal Reserve rate increase at the upcoming meeting. Yet Wall Street's reaction is notably different from what might normally be expected from a hawkish inflation surprise. Rather than triggering a broad risk-off move, US equities rebound strongly, with investors instead focusing on falling oil prices, corporate earnings and continued strength in the technology sector. That divergence is one of the most important signals heading into Monday. If equities continue to absorb higher-rate expectations without a significant deterioration in risk appetite, it would suggest that investors are increasingly looking beyond the immediate monetary-policy threat. European monetary policy also remains in focus. Expectations surrounding further ECB tightening continue to influence the euro-area outlook, while Poland's market remains positioned for a relatively prolonged pause in domestic monetary policy. Meanwhile, BRICS finance chiefs call for reforms to global development-finance institutions, seeking to reduce the dominance of traditional Western financial systems and diversify international sources of capital. The resilience of the US private sector provides another important counterweight to monetary-policy concerns. American household net worth increases by approximately $12.803 trillion in the second quarter, highlighting the strength of household balance sheets despite elevated interest rates and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. What It Means for Monday The key question for the new week is whether Friday's equity resilience represents genuine confidence in the economic outlook or simply a temporary willingness to look through higher inflation. The Fed remains the dominant catalyst, but investors also have to contend with the possibility that strong household balance sheets and resilient corporate earnings allow the US economy to withstand restrictive monetary policy for longer. Wall Street: Four-Day Losing Streak Ends US equities finish Friday's session with a strong rebound, breaking a four-day losing streak. Investors largely dismiss the hawkish implications of the latest inflation data, instead focusing on falling crude oil prices and encouraging technology earnings. As of the Friday 19:44 snapshot: MarketFriday SessionWeekly PerformanceS&P 500+1.00%-0.49%Dow Jones+1.10%-1.14%DE40+0.93%-1.93%WIG20+0.68%+1.38%Tesla+0.55%+3.30%Meta+0.83%+5.32% The weekly figures show that Friday's rebound does not completely erase the pressure accumulated during the week, particularly across major European indices. Technology Remains a Major Market Driver Corporate earnings provide an important source of support. Oracle attracts significant attention after reporting a 30% increase in total revenue, while cloud infrastructure revenue surges 121%, supported by strong demand associated with artificial intelligence projects. Dell also performs strongly following a positive recommendation from RBC, which highlights approximately $16.4 billion in AI-server sales during the second quarter. Adobe provides a contrasting example. Although its results remain solid, the company's performance fails to satisfy elevated market expectations, highlighting how selectively investors are currently evaluating technology valuations. Tesla also remains in focus after announcing the European market debut of its Semi electric truck, opening a potential new revenue stream in the strategically important European freight market. Monday Watch The major question for Monday is whether Friday's rebound develops into a broader recovery or represents a temporary relief rally. Technology earnings remain a powerful source of support, but elevated Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook continue to provide an important counterweight. Commodities: Oil Retreats While Precious Metals Recover Crude oil experiences one of the week's sharpest reversals on Friday. WTI falls approximately 3.95%, while Brent declines 4.05% during the session, despite an intensification of geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf. The decline is largely attributed to significant profit-taking following the strong rally earlier in the week. WTI nevertheless finishes the week approximately 9.44% higher, while Brent remains 9.07% higher on a weekly basis. The contrast between Friday's sharp correction and the broader weekly gain is important. Oil remains heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, but extremely strong recent gains create conditions for aggressive profit-taking. The International Energy Agency's reduction in its 2026 global supply forecast by approximately 1.4 million barrels per day would normally provide additional support for prices. Instead, technical selling dominates Friday's session. Geopolitical risks remain elevated. Rebels damage a key Saudi East-West pipeline, while tanker freight rates on the route from the Middle East towards China surge to approximately $800,000 per day. The disruption creates further pressure across global energy supply chains, with the US administration also considering use of the Defense Production Act to encourage additional domestic refining capacity. Precious Metals Recover Gold and silver respond positively after initially coming under pressure from the latest US inflation data. Silver rebounds sharply from a three-week low and returns to approximately $64.45 per ounce, while gold regains the important 100-day simple moving average. The recovery suggests that investors continue to view precious metals as a potential hedge against geopolitical and monetary uncertainty, even as higher US yields remain a structural headwind. Friday's commodity snapshot: CommodityFriday SessionWeekly PerformanceGold+1.04%-1.54%Silver+1.44%-2.60%WTI Crude-3.95%+9.44%Brent Crude-4.05%+9.07%Copper+0.50%-0.92%Corn-0.71%-2.01% Agriculture and Industrial Metals Corn and other grains remain under pressure following the latest WASDE report. Although the US Department of Agriculture lowers crop-yield forecasts, US ending stocks of approximately 1,567 million bushels exceed market expectations of 1,521.5 million bushels. The larger-than-expected inventory figure creates immediate downward pressure on grain prices. Copper remains close to historically elevated levels, with its five-year z-score around +2.65. The metal therefore remains an important indicator for global industrial demand and expectations surrounding the energy transition. Markets are also beginning to assess the potential impact of El Niño on agricultural and industrial commodities, given its historical ability to create significant global price volatility. Currencies: Dollar Strength Fails to Fully Overwhelm Sterling The US inflation surprise provides renewed support for the dollar, but Friday's currency moves remain relatively contained. EUR/USD edges lower, while EUR/GBP moves towards 0.8580 as the euro struggles to generate upside momentum from European monetary policy expectations. The British pound performs better. Sterling resists the broader dollar-strengthening environment, supported by more constructive expectations surrounding UK economic growth. Friday's snapshot: PairFriday SessionWeekly PerformanceEUR/USD-0.01%-0.05%GBP/USD+0.15%+0.08% For Monday, currency markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to changes in US rate expectations, Treasury yields and the relative outlook for European and UK monetary policy. Cryptocurrencies: Ethereum Leads as Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure Crypto markets finish Friday on a firmer footing, led by Ethereum. Bitcoin remains relatively stable but still records a weekly decline, while Ethereum recovers strongly and finishes the week higher. AssetFriday SessionWeekly PerformanceBitcoin+0.63%-2.93%Ethereum+4.58%+2.48% Zcash attracts particular attention after its five-year z-score reaches an extreme +5.12, indicating exceptionally stretched conditions. That level points to significant medium-term overbought risk and leaves the token vulnerable to a sharp correction. For Monday, the relative strength of Ethereum versus Bitcoin is worth monitoring for signs of continued capital rotation within the cryptocurrency market. Geopolitics: Energy and Shipping Risks Remain Elevated Geopolitical developments remain one of the biggest risks heading into Monday. Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly take control of the strategic island of Perim, providing a stronger position around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world's most important maritime routes. Any sustained deterioration in shipping conditions around the Red Sea and Persian Gulf could quickly feed into freight rates, energy prices and inflation expectations. The US Treasury also signals that new sanctions against a major financial institution could be introduced as early as Monday as Washington increases financial pressure on Iran. Meanwhile, Israeli forces announce the destruction of a major underground Hezbollah command centre, further highlighting the intensity of the regional conflict. For financial markets, the important issue is increasingly the economic transmission mechanism: geopolitical escalation can affect oil, shipping costs, inflation expectations, central-bank policy and ultimately global risk appetite. Monday Market Outlook The weekend provides markets with a brief opportunity to digest a week in which several seemingly contradictory forces emerge. US inflation is hotter than expected. Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations rise sharply. Treasury yields remain elevated. Yet Wall Street rebounds strongly. Oil prices fall sharply despite worsening geopolitical risks. Gold and silver recover. Technology stocks continue to attract capital. This combination suggests that investors are not responding mechanically to macroeconomic headlines. Instead, capital is rotating between individual themes according to perceived earnings strength, geopolitical risk and the expected path of monetary policy. For Monday, several areas deserve particular attention: US Equities: Can Friday's rebound extend into the new week despite higher rate expectations? Oil: Does the sharp correction continue, or do geopolitical supply risks reassert themselves? Silver: Can the recovery from the three-week low develop into a broader move higher? Copper: Does the metal's proximity to historic highs continue to signal underlying industrial optimism? Currencies: Can sterling maintain its relative strength while the dollar remains supported by higher US rate expectations? Ethereum: Does Friday's strong outperformance represent the beginning of a broader rotation into higher-beta crypto assets? Zcash: Does its extreme technical reading trigger profit-taking? Today Markets View The most important takeaway from the week is that markets are refusing to react to individual macroeconomic signals in isolation. The hotter US inflation reading strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy, yet equities recover. Oil falls despite geopolitical escalation, while precious metals rebound despite elevated Treasury yields. That tells us that positioning, expectations and cross-asset correlations are becoming just as important as the headline economic data. “Friday's market action is particularly interesting because investors absorb a hawkish inflation surprise without abandoning risk assets. Going into Monday, the question is whether this resilience represents genuine confidence in the economic outlook or simply a temporary willingness to look through higher rates. The answer is likely to emerge as markets increasingly focus on the Federal Reserve's next move and the guidance surrounding it.” — Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets The new week therefore begins with a delicate balance between inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, energy supply risks and geopolitics. For investors and traders, the ability of markets to maintain Friday's recovery while these risks remain elevated will provide an important early signal for the direction of the week. Stay ahead of the developing global market picture with Today Markets, with additional currency and hedging intelligence available through Currency Hedger. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 12, 2026

The Monday Trade: Silver — Precious Metals Set Up for a Volatile Week Ahead of the Fed

Today Markets Analysis: Silver enters Monday’s session with precious metals supported by a combination of persistent inflation concerns, elevated US Treasury yields and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. Markets are currently pricing an approximately 88% probability of a rate hike, making the decision itself increasingly well anticipated. The bigger question for silver is therefore likely to be how markets respond to the Fed’s decision and subsequent guidance, rather than simply whether rates rise. With August core inflation holding at 2.4% while three-month annualised core inflation remains below 2%, the Federal Reserve faces a difficult balance between persistent inflation and signs of softer underlying price pressures. At the same time, the US 30-year Treasury yield remains around 5.33%, close to levels last seen around two decades ago. For silver, this creates the potential for significant volatility as investors reassess interest rates, real yields, fiscal risks and confidence in US institutions. Silver Enters the Week With Fed Expectations Already Heavily Priced The latest inflation data has pushed expectations for a September rate hike sharply higher, from around 70% previously to just under 90%. That means a rate increase is increasingly becoming the market's base case. Ordinarily, higher interest rates and elevated real yields create a challenging environment for non-yielding precious metals. Yet silver and other precious metals remain resilient rather than experiencing the broad sell-off that might normally accompany a significant repricing of monetary policy. That resilience is important. If the Federal Reserve delivers the widely anticipated hike on Wednesday but fails to provide sufficiently hawkish guidance, the market reaction could prove considerably more supportive for silver than the headline rate decision suggests. What Matters Most on Wednesday The focus is likely to move quickly from the rate decision itself to the accompanying communication. Markets will be watching closely for signals regarding the future path of interest rates and the Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation, growth and financial conditions. A rate hike accompanied by relatively cautious or unconvincing guidance could leave investors questioning whether monetary policy is becoming sufficiently restrictive. For silver, that could reinforce demand for precious metals as an alternative store of value. The role of Kevin Warsh and the rhetoric surrounding the future direction of US monetary policy also remains important. Any perception that monetary policy is becoming increasingly influenced by political or institutional pressures could strengthen concerns surrounding the long-term purchasing power of the US dollar. Why Silver Remains Attractive Several factors continue to provide a bullish counterweight to the higher-rate environment. US core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's longer-term target, while the three-month annualised measure is considerably softer. This divergence suggests that the inflation picture is not straightforward. At the same time, the Trimmed Mean PCE measure stands at 2.2% for July, indicating that underlying inflation pressures are moderating even as headline measures remain sticky. US interest rates are also already relatively high compared with the European Central Bank and several other G10 central banks. Real US rates remain positive, creating a restrictive monetary backdrop. The market therefore faces a significant question: how much further can the Federal Reserve tighten before weaker demand becomes a more important consideration? That uncertainty can support silver, particularly if investors begin to anticipate that the current rate cycle is approaching its limits. US Fiscal and Institutional Risks Monetary policy is not the only driver of the precious-metals outlook. US fiscal policy and increasingly unpredictable presidential actions remain potential upside catalysts for silver. If concerns surrounding government spending, debt levels, institutional independence or the long-term value of fiat currencies intensify, investors may increasingly favour assets that are perceived as protection against monetary and fiscal debasement. That makes the reaction to the Fed particularly important. A rate hike that fails to convince investors that inflation and fiscal risks are under control could ultimately have a very different effect on silver than a conventional hawkish policy surprise. Monday's Silver Trade Setup TradeLevelBUY / LONG Silver64.434Take Profit72.041Stop Loss54.666 The setup is based on the expectation that silver remains supported into a potentially volatile Federal Reserve week. The upside objective at 72.041 represents the 50% Fibonacci level identified in the underlying methodology, while the 54.666 stop-loss level represents the Fibonacci 0 level. The trade therefore carries substantial room for volatility, making position sizing and risk management particularly important around Wednesday's decision. Key Risks to the Trade The principal risk to the bullish silver view is a significantly more hawkish Federal Reserve than markets currently anticipate. If the Fed raises rates and simultaneously delivers convincing guidance that rates need to remain restrictive for an extended period, Treasury yields and the US dollar could strengthen further. That combination could place renewed pressure on precious metals. Conversely, if the Fed hikes but its guidance is less convincing, or if the central bank signals greater concern about slowing demand, silver could benefit from a decline in expectations for future tightening. A decision not to hike would represent an even more significant potential bullish catalyst for silver, although current market pricing makes that outcome considerably less likely. Today Markets View Silver enters Monday with a favourable asymmetric setup, but the key catalyst remains ahead rather than behind the market. The rate hike is increasingly priced in. The opportunity therefore lies in the reaction function — whether investors accept the Fed's message as sufficiently hawkish or instead focus on inflation persistence, fiscal pressures and broader concerns surrounding the US financial system. “The market is increasingly pricing the September rate decision as a known event. For silver, the greater opportunity lies in how investors respond to the policy guidance that follows. If higher rates fail to weaken precious metals, that resilience could signal that fiscal, institutional and debasement concerns are becoming more important drivers of the market.” — Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets Trade Methodology The trade direction is determined through a combination of: US macroeconomic conditions Changing Federal Reserve rate expectations August inflation data US Treasury yields and real rates Cross-asset reaction to changing Fed expectations The balance of bullish and bearish risks surrounding precious metals ahead of Wednesday's decision The trade levels are derived using Fibonacci analysis, with the stop loss positioned at Fibonacci 0 and the take-profit target at Fibonacci 50. The Week Ahead Silver begins the new week with monetary policy expectations already heavily priced into markets. That places greater emphasis on what the Federal Reserve communicates and how investors interpret the policy outlook. For traders, Wednesday's decision is therefore likely to represent the week's defining catalyst. Until then, silver's ability to maintain its underlying strength despite elevated Treasury yields remains an important signal for the broader precious-metals market. Follow the developing macroeconomic and commodities picture with Today Markets, while Currency Hedger provides additional market intelligence across currencies, rates and global financial conditions. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Energies

September 12, 2026

Commodity Talk: How Long Can Oil Prices Stay Elevated?

Today Markets Analysis: Energy markets dominated the commodity landscape this week as the escalating US-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude back above the psychologically important $100 per barrel threshold. Brent gained 8.3% on the week, returning to levels last seen in May, while natural gas has surged around 30% over the past month. With no ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran heading into the weekend, the outlook for energy prices remains heavily dependent on developments across the Middle East. At the same time, falling US crude inventories, renewed Chinese buying and disruptions to regional energy infrastructure are adding further pressure to an already constrained supply picture. The key question for markets is increasingly straightforward: how long can oil remain above $100? Energy: Geopolitical Risk Keeps Oil Elevated Oil prices fell around 3% on Friday, but Brent crude remained above $104 per barrel, leaving the benchmark significantly higher over both the week and the month. A sustained return below $100 is likely to require more than a temporary pullback. Markets need evidence that attacks on energy infrastructure are slowing and that tanker traffic through critical shipping routes can resume safely. The situation around the Red Sea has added another layer of risk. Reports that Houthi forces had taken control of a strategically important Red Sea island raised concerns over shipping security and the movement of Saudi Arabian oil during the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz remains an even larger concern. Without a formal arrangement allowing tankers to pass safely through the strait, the market is likely to continue pricing a significant geopolitical risk premium into crude. Iran has also threatened energy infrastructure across the Middle East in response to further US attacks, while Washington has indicated that the conflict could continue for an extended period. That creates the possibility of further supply disruptions in the weeks ahead. Inventories and Supply Pressures US crude inventories declined by almost 400,000 barrels last week to 424.1 million barrels. Although the draw was smaller than expected, the direction remains supportive for prices when combined with geopolitical supply risks. China is also reportedly returning to the oil market to secure additional supplies, potentially providing another source of demand just as regional production and transportation remain under pressure. Brent is now around 18% higher over the past month, increasing the likelihood that major banks and analysts will revise their energy-price forecasts higher. Goldman Sachs, for example, has raised its December 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80, respectively, while warning that Brent could exceed $120 in 2027 if Gulf production remains substantially below pre-war levels. The conflict has also pushed US diesel prices to record levels. Damage to regional energy infrastructure, including attacks on Saudi facilities, has contributed to temporary operational disruptions and a significant decline in Saudi oil production. For consumers and businesses, the impact is extending well beyond crude itself. Precious Metals: Gold Faces a Critical Fed Test Gold has been considerably more stable than energy markets, although the precious metal still declined around 2% this week. XAU/USD recovered approximately 0.5% on Friday following stronger-than-expected US CPI data for August and was trading below $4,430 per ounce. The major issue for gold now is monetary policy. Following the inflation data, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting increased sharply, with markets pricing an approximately 86% probability of an increase. Higher interest rates generally create a headwind for gold because the metal does not generate income. A more aggressive Fed could therefore place additional pressure on precious metals. However, the opposite scenario could produce a substantial reversal. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged despite the market pricing heavily for a hike, gold could see a significant rebound, potentially targeting the 200-day SMA around $4,547 and beyond. The combination of an energy-price shock, elevated inflation and unchanged interest rates would be particularly important for gold. Such an environment could increase demand for the metal as investors seek protection against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold Levels to Watch LevelTechnical significance$4,430Current area / near-term reference$4,547200-day SMA$4,500+Potential recovery zone Fed Watch: The Key Event for Commodities The FOMC meeting on September 15–16 is the dominant scheduled macro event for commodity markets next week. Only months ago, markets were positioning for Fed rate cuts during the second half of the year. The sharp rise in energy prices and renewed inflation concerns have dramatically changed that outlook. Markets are now pricing an approximately 86% probability of a rate hike. That positioning has already supported the US dollar and created a more complicated environment for commodities. For gold, copper and other economically sensitive assets, higher interest rates can weigh on demand. For energy, however, the relationship is more complicated. Can Higher Rates Eventually Break the Oil Rally? Central banks have limited ability to directly control inflation caused by an energy supply shock. If oil prices remain elevated, policymakers can primarily respond by restricting economic demand through higher borrowing costs. Over time, this can produce demand destruction, slowing economic activity and eventually reducing energy consumption. That creates a potential two-stage process for oil. Initially, geopolitical supply disruption can overwhelm monetary-policy tightening and keep crude prices elevated. But if central banks remain aggressively hawkish, weaker economic activity could eventually place a ceiling on energy demand. The market therefore faces an unusual combination of supply-driven inflation and tighter monetary policy. Industrial Metals: Copper Pulls Back From Record Highs Copper has also come under pressure as expectations for higher US interest rates increase. World Bank data continues to point to resilient base-metal demand during the third quarter, alongside copper-specific supply disruptions. However, the prospect of higher borrowing costs has raised concerns over global economic growth. Copper remains particularly sensitive to the economic cycle, meaning an extended period of monetary tightening could weigh on prices. Nevertheless, we do not expect a deep or prolonged collapse in copper. The metal remains fundamental to the global AI infrastructure build-out, alongside electrification, power-grid investment and broader technology infrastructure. These structural demand drivers should provide an important long-term floor beneath the market. The 50-day SMA around $1,393 is therefore a key short-term support level to monitor. UK Markets: Energy Inflation Returns to Focus The renewed oil-price surge is also creating important implications for UK markets. Shell and BP remain direct beneficiaries of higher crude prices, although both companies also face exposure to supply-chain disruption across the Gulf. For now, the positive impact of higher oil prices appears to be outweighing those concerns. BP shares rose approximately 5% this week, highlighting how rapidly rising energy prices can feed through to energy-sector valuations. The bigger concern for the UK economy is inflation. Unleaded petrol prices have reached their highest level in approximately four years, adding further pressure to household costs. Higher fuel prices could therefore complicate the Bank of England's policy outlook at precisely the same time that the Federal Reserve is reassessing its own response to renewed inflationary pressure. Week Ahead: Three Markets, One Central Theme The coming week will be dominated by the interaction between geopolitical risk, inflation and monetary policy. Oil remains the clearest expression of the geopolitical shock. Gold provides a hedge against inflation and uncertainty but faces pressure from higher interest rates. Copper sits between the two, balancing structural demand against the threat of slower global growth. The key events are: September 15–16: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting September 16: Fed rate decision Throughout the week: Developments in the US-Iran conflict Throughout the week: Energy infrastructure and tanker-traffic developments Throughout the week: Further revisions to oil-price forecasts Today Markets View The commodity complex is entering a critical week in which geopolitics and monetary policy could pull prices in opposite directions. “The immediate direction of oil remains firmly tied to the Middle East. As long as energy infrastructure and critical shipping routes remain under threat, the market is likely to maintain a substantial geopolitical premium. The bigger question is what happens if the conflict persists while central banks respond with higher rates. Initially, supply risk can overwhelm monetary tightening, but sustained rate hikes could eventually weaken demand and place a ceiling on oil prices.” — Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets For gold, the Fed decision could produce the larger immediate volatility event. A hike would reinforce the pressure created by higher yields and a stronger dollar, while a surprise hold could rapidly revive demand for defensive assets. Copper remains more fundamentally supported, with AI infrastructure and electrification providing structural demand even as higher rates threaten the broader economic outlook. For ongoing coverage of oil, precious metals, industrial commodities and global markets, follow Today Markets. Currency and commodity-risk developments are also monitored through Currency Hedger. Key commodities to watch:Brent crude: Above $104 — geopolitical risk remains dominantGold: Below $4,430 — Fed decision is the key catalystCopper: 50-day SMA around $1,393 — important short-term support Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence Source: XTB Chart 2: Gold Source: XTB Chart 3: Copper Source: XTB

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: Bears Retain Control as XAG/USD Fails to Reclaim Key Neckline

Today Markets Analysis: Silver prices recovered more than 1% from their two-day lows on Friday, but the rebound has yet to change the short-term technical picture. XAG/USD remains below the key $64.10–$64.15 head-and-shoulders neckline, leaving sellers in control while momentum indicators continue to favour the downside. Silver Rebounds, but Neckline Remains a Barrier Silver traded around $64.24, recovering from an intraday low of $62.94. Despite the rebound, the white metal has failed to decisively reclaim the neckline around $64.10–$64.15. That failure is important from a technical perspective. The head-and-shoulders structure remains intact while prices trade below the neckline, meaning the latest recovery could represent a corrective bounce rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its neutral 50 level. Although the indicator is attempting to turn higher, it continues to signal that short-term momentum is tilted toward sellers. XAG/USD Technical Outlook A sustained break above $65.00 would begin to improve the technical picture and could open the way toward the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $66.94. A move through $66.94 could then expose the $67.00 area, followed by the psychological $70.00 level. Beyond $70.00, the next major technical reference is the 200-day SMA at $73.05. LevelTechnical significance$65.00Initial upside breakout level$66.94100-day SMA$67.00Secondary resistance$70.00Major psychological resistance$73.05200-day SMA For the bullish scenario to gain credibility, silver would need to reclaim the neckline and then establish itself above $65.00. Downside Risks Increase Below $62.55 The immediate support level is around $64.00, but a renewed deterioration in momentum could quickly bring the 50-day SMA at $62.55 into focus. A decisive break below $62.55 would strengthen the bearish technical structure and expose the $61.01 area, corresponding with the July 22 high-turned-support. If $61.01 also fails, the next major downside target would be the psychological $60.00 level. LevelTechnical significance$64.00Immediate support$62.5550-day SMA$61.01July 22 high-turned-support$60.00Major psychological support Silver's Broader Technical Picture The current setup leaves silver at an important technical crossroads. The recovery from $62.94 demonstrates that buyers remain active, but the inability to reclaim the neckline means the bounce has not yet invalidated the bearish formation. For now, the $64.10–$64.15 neckline remains the key level to watch on the upside, while $62.55 represents the critical downside trigger. A sustained move above $65.00 would shift the balance toward a recovery, whereas a break below $62.55 would reinforce the bearish scenario. Today Markets View Silver's latest rebound should be treated cautiously. The 1%+ daily gain looks constructive on the surface, but the more important signal remains the failure to establish a sustained break above the head-and-shoulders neckline. “Silver has bounced sharply from its two-day lows, but the technical structure remains vulnerable while XAG/USD trades below the $64.10–$64.15 neckline. The $62.55 area is now particularly important: a break below it would strengthen the bearish setup and bring $61.01 and $60.00 into focus.” — Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets For continued coverage of precious metals, commodities and global markets, follow Today Markets. Currency and commodity-risk developments are also covered through Currency Hedger. Key levels:Resistance: $64.10–$64.15 → $65.00 → $66.94 → $67.00 → $70.00Support: $64.00 → $62.55 → $61.01 → $60.00 Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence

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Banks

September 12, 2026

Taiwan Dollar: CBC seen on hold before December hike – DBS

DBS Group Research expects Taiwan’s central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged on September 17, before raising it to 2.125% in December. Analysts Taimur Baig and Chang Wei Liang highlight subdued August CPI, but anticipate a somewhat hawkish tone as the CBC remains vigilant on supply‑side inflation risks, higher wages and recovering domestic consumption. CBC to stay vigilant on inflation risks "We expect the central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at the September 17 policy meeting, before hiking rates to 2.125% at the next meeting in December." "That said, we expect the CBC to retain a somewhat hawkish tone." "The central bank is likely to remain vigilant about the risk of persistent supply-side inflation, particularly given the renewed rise in global oil prices amid prolonged tensions in the Middle East." "Policymakers are also likely to highlight the risk of second-round inflationary pressures stemming from a potential rise in inflation expectations, higher wages, and a recovery in domestic consumption." "August CPI data suggest little urgency for the CBC to hike rates: headline CPI came in slightly below expectations at 2.0% YoY, while core CPI eased marginally to 2.3%."

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Energies

September 12, 2026

WTI Crude Oil Falls as Hormuz Talks Ease Supply Risk, but Tight Inventories Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis: WTI crude oil fell sharply before recovering part of its losses as reports of diplomatic efforts surrounding the Strait of Hormuz reduced some of the immediate supply-risk premium in oil markets. However, severely depleted global inventories, disrupted Gulf production and elevated freight costs continue to provide an important floor beneath prices. WTI Pulls Back on Hormuz Arrangement Talks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $97.00, down around 3.4%, putting the benchmark on course for its first lower session in five. The decline followed reports that Gulf foreign ministers are due to meet their Iranian counterpart in Salalah, Oman, in an effort to secure support for a temporary arrangement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of a workable shipping arrangement has encouraged traders to reduce part of the geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices. However, the physical oil market has not yet returned to normal. Hormuz Transit Remains Severely Disrupted Vessel tracking showed only seven ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on September 10, compared with 11 the previous day. Before the war began on February 28, the waterway handled roughly 125 cargo vessels a day and around one-fifth of global seaborne crude oil and LNG shipments. Gulf producers have attempted to maintain exports by moving cargoes to waiting tankers rather than sending fully loaded vessels through the strait. This has allowed exports to remain stronger than transit figures alone would suggest, but at a substantially higher logistical cost. Tanker earnings have surged as a result, meaning Friday's decline in crude prices reflects changing expectations around future freight and supply risks rather than a full restoration of normal shipping conditions. Saudi Arabia's August production also fell by around 1.9 million barrels per day, while recent Houthi attacks have added further pressure to regional energy infrastructure. Energy Prices Continue to Feed Into Inflation The latest US inflation data underline the importance of energy prices for monetary policy. US CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month in August, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%, broadly matching expectations. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% during the month and accounted for more than one-third of the overall monthly CPI increase. Fuel costs were around 28% higher year-on-year, while diesel prices were up approximately 52%. Core CPI also increased 0.3% month-on-month, above the 0.2% consensus estimate, although annual core inflation eased to 2.4%. The combination leaves energy prices as an important consideration for the Federal Reserve ahead of its September policy decision. Global Oil Inventories Provide a Significant Floor The International Energy Agency's latest monthly report highlighted the scale of the physical supply disruption. The IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast by a further 940,000 barrels per day, taking the expected full-year decline to 2.5 million barrels per day. At the same time, global supply is projected to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day during 2026 to around 100.7 million barrels per day. More than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production remained shut in through August, while August global production was estimated at 100.1 million barrels per day, down 1.6 million from July. Despite weaker demand expectations, inventories have absorbed much of the supply shortfall. Observed global inventories have fallen by approximately 507 million barrels since the war began, equivalent to an average draw of around 2.8 million barrels per day. August alone accounted for roughly 95 million barrels of inventory declines. That depletion could become increasingly important if supply disruptions persist. WTI Technical Outlook WTI's recent advance remains technically constructive despite Friday's sharp pullback. Resistance is seen around $100.50, followed by the psychological $101.00 level. Above that, the next major zone sits just above $103.00, followed by the late-April peak below $107.50. On the downside, the $95.50 area is the immediate support zone. A break would expose Thursday's low near $93.00, followed by the $90.00 level. The technical bias remains higher while $95.50 holds, with $100.50 the first upside objective. Key WTI Levels LevelSignificance$107.50Major upside resistance$103.00Key resistance zone$101.00Psychological resistance$100.50Initial resistance / upside objective$97.00Approximate current price$95.50Initial support$93.00Key technical support / invalidation$90.00Major psychological support A daily close below $93.00 would weaken the current bullish technical structure and suggest that the September advance is losing momentum. Today Markets View Crude oil markets are being pulled between two opposing forces. The prospect of a temporary Hormuz shipping arrangement is reducing the immediate geopolitical premium, while the physical market remains unusually tight and global inventories have been heavily depleted. The key question is whether Monday's diplomatic discussions produce an arrangement that insurers, tanker operators and producers are actually willing to use. If they do, some of the recent supply-risk premium could unwind quickly. If negotiations fail, the market may refocus on disrupted production, depleted inventories and the cost of keeping Gulf exports moving. “The oil market is pricing the possibility of a solution to the Hormuz disruption, but the physical balance has not yet normalised. With global inventories already significantly depleted, a failure to establish a workable shipping corridor could quickly return supply risk to the forefront. Technically, $95.50 remains the key near-term level for maintaining the bullish structure.”— Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets For broader energy-market coverage, follow Today Markets. For specialist currency and macro-market intelligence, Currency Hedger provides additional analysis of the forces influencing global markets. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence

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Banks

September 12, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Bullish bias fades against dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann reports that USD/CNH has bounced sharply to 6.7153, with intraday gains likely capped near 6.7200. The bank’s earlier negative stance has softened as downward momentum fades, and over the next one to three weeks, it now expects the pair to edge higher within a 6.7040–6.7290 range. From downside bias to gentle rebound "24-HOUR VIEW: We indicated yesterday that USD “could trade between 6.7030 and 6.7100.” USD then dipped to 6.7043 before rising sharply to 6.7153. While the sharp rise has scope to extend, any advance is expected to face strong resistance at 6.7200. Support is at 6.7085." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a negative USD stance since the start of the month. In our most recent narrative from Monday (07 Sep, spot at 6.7070), we noted that “downward momentum has increased further, and if USD breaks and holds below 6.7000, it could decline further to 6.6900.” Yesterday, USD rose sharply to 6.7153. Although our ‘strong resistance’ level at 6.7160 has not been breached yet, downward momentum has largely faded. The increasing upward momentum suggests USD could edge higher, but currently, any advance should stay within a 6.7040/6.7290 range."

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Banks

September 12, 2026

Bank of Japan: Gradual path toward neutral rate – ING

ING analysts Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey argue the Bank of Japan is likely to hike 25bp to 1.25% and then proceed cautiously. They see government resistance to aggressive tightening and project two additional 25bp hikes in January and April, taking the policy rate to 1.75%, which they view as near‑neutral ahead of a temporary consumption tax cut. BoJ seen hiking but staying cautious "Formal communication from the BoJ this year has acknowledged that the real policy rate is negative and needs to be raised. Various BoJ speeches have discussed the concept of a neutral rate, which most see in the 1.1-2.5% range in nominal terms." "We doubt the BoJ would want to shock investors and Scott Bessent by leaving the policy rate unchanged at 1.00%. A 25bp rate hike to 1.25% looks likely. The marginally bigger risk than unchanged rates is a 50bp rate hike, perhaps as part of a broader understanding with Washington designed to sustainably push USD/JPY lower, reduce the need for large-scale dollar selling intervention from the BoJ and help stabilise JGBs." "However, the Japanese government has an aggressive pro-growth strategy and will no doubt express its views against a more aggressive tightening cycle. Maybe we are underestimating a shift here, but it is hard to see government officials backing a much faster tightening cycle of either a 50bp hike in September or back-to-back hikes in September and October. Instead, our house view is for two further 25bp rate hikes next January and April, which would take the policy rate to 1.75%." "A near-neutral 1.75% policy rate next April seems an appropriate target before the consumption tax on food and non-alcoholic beverages is cut from 8% to 1% that month for two years. That will sharply depress headline inflation – perhaps for the next two years – and would create a difficult environment in which to deliver further tightening." "When it comes to prices, the BoJ narrative has firmly shifted towards inflation moving onto a sustainable path. One central theme now is that higher input/producer prices are more likely to feed through into broader CPI. The most recent Tankan business survey showed output price expectations rising sharply and the BoJ is focusing heavily on the 7% year-on-year growth in corporate goods prices."

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Markets

September 12, 2026

US Inflation Keeps Fed Rate-Hike Bets Firm as Consumer Sentiment Weakens

Today Markets Analysis: US inflation accelerated in August as gasoline prices surged, while core inflation also came in above expectations. The combination of renewed energy-price pressure and persistent underlying inflation has strengthened expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy, pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on the economic outlook even as US equity futures found some relief. US CPI Accelerates as Gasoline Prices Surge US consumer prices increased 0.4% month-on-month in August 2026, accelerating sharply from 0.1% in July and matching expectations. The increase was the largest monthly rise in three months and was driven primarily by a 3.9% jump in gasoline prices, reflecting the sharp increase in crude oil prices amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Shelter costs also accelerated, rising 0.3% compared with 0.1% in July, while food prices increased 0.1% for a second consecutive month. Additional upward pressure came from communication services, lodging away from home, airline fares, education and used cars and trucks. These increases were partly offset by declines in medical care and motor vehicle insurance costs. The annual headline inflation rate remained at 3.4%. Core Inflation Exceeds Expectations The more closely watched core CPI measure, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-on-month, compared with 0.2% in July and above the 0.2% market forecast. However, the annual core inflation rate eased to 2.4%, down from 2.5% in July and its lowest level since March 2021. The combination creates a complicated picture for the Federal Reserve. Annual underlying inflation continues to move lower, but the stronger monthly reading suggests that the disinflation process remains uneven. More importantly for markets, renewed energy inflation risks feeding into broader price expectations if elevated oil prices persist. Treasury Yields Remain Near Elevated Levels The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.92%, close to its highest levels since 2023. Following the CPI release, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase at next week’s meeting strengthened significantly. Markets moved to price approximately a 90% probability of a hike, compared with around 70% before the inflation data. The rise in rate expectations reflects the stronger-than-expected monthly core CPI reading and continued concerns surrounding energy-driven inflation. For longer-duration bonds, the combination of higher inflation expectations and tighter monetary policy creates a challenging environment, particularly while oil prices remain elevated. Equity Futures Find Some Relief Despite the inflation data, US equity futures moved higher on Friday, ending a four-session losing streak. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 were around 0.7% higher, as oil prices and Treasury yields temporarily paused their recent advances. The recent market weakness has been closely linked to the sharp rise in energy prices following the escalation of US-Iran tensions in the Persian Gulf. A stabilisation in crude therefore provided some relief for equities even as inflationary risks remained elevated. Credit-sensitive areas of the market, including heavily indebted AI infrastructure companies and banks, remained under pressure during the week, highlighting concerns over the effect of higher financing costs. Consumer Sentiment Falls as Inflation Expectations Rise The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 in early September, down for a second consecutive month and well below the 51.0 market expectation. The reading represented the weakest level since May's record low and reflected growing concerns about household finances and economic conditions. Consumers are increasingly concerned about higher fuel costs and trade tensions, with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 4.6%, the highest level since June. Five-year inflation expectations also edged higher to 3.4%, from 3.3%. Overall sentiment is now approximately 16% below February levels and 13% below the level recorded a year earlier. The deterioration is important because higher inflation expectations can become self-reinforcing if households and businesses begin adjusting spending, wages and pricing behaviour accordingly. The Fed Faces a Difficult Policy Balance The latest data leaves the Federal Reserve facing a difficult trade-off. On one side, annual core inflation has continued to decline and consumer sentiment is weakening. On the other, monthly core inflation has accelerated, gasoline prices have surged and energy markets remain vulnerable to further geopolitical disruption. A rate increase could reinforce the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, but tighter policy also risks putting additional pressure on households, businesses and credit-sensitive parts of the economy. This creates an increasingly important question for markets: how much of the recent inflation pressure is temporary and energy-driven, and how much is becoming embedded in the broader economy? Today Markets View The August CPI report does not represent a broad-based inflation acceleration across every category, but it does highlight the difficulty of declaring victory over inflation while energy prices remain elevated. The decline in annual core inflation is encouraging, yet the stronger monthly reading and rising inflation expectations give the Federal Reserve a reason to remain cautious. “The US inflation picture is becoming increasingly two-sided. Annual core inflation continues to improve, but the acceleration in monthly core prices and the surge in gasoline costs are making it harder for the Fed to ease policy without risking a renewed inflation impulse.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets For traders and investors, the relationship between oil, inflation, Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy is likely to remain one of the dominant themes across US markets. Today Markets continues to monitor these cross-asset developments, while Currency Hedger focuses on the implications for currencies, rates and global macro markets. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Global Bond Markets: Brazilian Yields Fall as Rate-Cut Bets Rise, While UK and US Yields Remain Elevated

Today Markets Analysis: Global bond markets remain highly sensitive to inflation, central-bank expectations and energy prices. Brazilian 10-year yields have eased as softer inflation strengthens expectations for further monetary easing, while UK and US government bond yields remain elevated as markets reassess the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Brazilian 10-Year Yield Falls on Rate-Cut Bets Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 14.14% in September, a three-month low, following softer-than-expected inflation data. Brazil’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.22% in August 2026, from 4.44% in July and slightly below the 4.27% forecast. Inflation has therefore moved further inside the central bank’s 1.50%–4.50% target range, strengthening expectations that the Banco Central do Brasil could reduce the Selic rate by another 25 basis points at next week’s Copom meeting. The decline in bond yields reflects the growing possibility of monetary easing, although Brazil’s still-high domestic interest rates continue to provide significant carry support for local assets. Political developments are also increasingly influencing market expectations. Recent polling has shown Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground in the presidential race, with markets generally viewing the Bolsonaro camp as more fiscally restrictive. At the same time, elevated borrowing costs and relatively weak business activity continue to weigh on Brazil’s economic outlook. Institutional tensions have added another layer of uncertainty, with an intensifying dispute involving Supreme Court justices Alexandre de Moraes and André Mendonça contributing to concerns surrounding Brazil’s political and institutional environment. UK Gilt Yields Ease but Remain Near Multi-Decade Highs The UK 10-year gilt yield dipped toward 5.3% as the recent energy-price rally paused and investors assessed economic data ahead of next week’s monetary-policy meetings in both the UK and US. Despite the decline, yields remain close to 19-year highs, while the 30-year gilt yield remains near 6%, a level last seen in 1998. UK economic activity has provided some support for yields. GDP increased 0.4% month-on-month in July, exceeding expectations, while growth over the three months to July also remained at 0.4%. Markets currently expect the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged next week. Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that future policy decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic and geopolitical developments, pushing back against expectations that another immediate rate increase is inevitable. However, inflation risks remain significant. Elevated oil prices continue to create concerns around renewed price pressures, with markets pricing substantial additional tightening through mid-2027. US Treasury Yields Remain Elevated The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.92% on Friday, slightly below Thursday’s level but still close to its highest levels since 2023. The market continues to focus heavily on inflation. US core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.2% in July and exceeding the 0.2% forecast. Annual core inflation nevertheless slowed to 2.4%, while headline CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month, leaving the annual rate at 3.4%. The stronger monthly core reading materially changed interest-rate expectations. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase next week rose to approximately 90%, compared with around 70% before the inflation release. The Treasury market also absorbed another buyback operation, although demand was weaker than expected. The US government repurchased $5.2 billion of bonds against a $6 billion maximum, while approximately $10.5 billion of securities had been offered. Today Markets View Bond markets are increasingly being driven by the interaction between energy prices, inflation and central-bank policy. Brazil represents a contrasting story, with easing inflation creating room for lower rates and supporting a decline in long-term yields. The UK and US remain more complicated. Persistent energy-price pressures and resilient economic data are keeping inflation expectations elevated, limiting the scope for near-term monetary easing and maintaining upward pressure on longer-dated government bond yields. “The direction of global bond markets is increasingly being determined by whether energy-driven inflation proves temporary or becomes embedded. Brazil is gaining room to ease as inflation moves deeper into target, while the UK and US remain constrained by elevated price pressures and tighter monetary-policy expectations.” — Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets For investors monitoring rates, currencies and sovereign yields, Today Markets provides ongoing market analysis, while Currency Hedger focuses on the implications of rates, currencies and macroeconomic developments for FX markets. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Week Ahead: Oil, Inflation and Central Banks Set the Tone for Global Markets

Today Markets Analysis: Global markets enter the week of September 14 with investors balancing geopolitical developments, elevated energy prices and a heavy calendar of economic and central-bank events. The possibility of constructive discussions surrounding tanker flows between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran has helped halt the latest surge in oil and natural gas prices. However, the energy market remains highly sensitive to any deterioration in the geopolitical situation. That makes the coming week particularly important for financial markets. Persistent energy inflation could complicate the outlook for monetary policy, increase borrowing costs and place renewed pressure on equities and bonds. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision will therefore be a central focus, while monetary-policy decisions in the United Kingdom and Japan will add another layer of significance for global markets. United States: Retail Sales, Industry and the Fed The US economic calendar is particularly important this week, with investors watching incoming data for further evidence about the strength of the economy and the persistence of inflation. Key releases include: US retail sales US trade data US industrial production Federal Reserve interest-rate decision The combination of economic activity data and the Fed's policy decision could have significant implications for Treasury yields, the US dollar and equity valuations. Energy prices will remain an important variable. If crude oil resumes its recent advance, markets could become increasingly concerned that higher fuel costs will slow the progress being made on inflation. This relationship between energy, rates, currencies and risk assets will be closely monitored by Today Markets, with additional cross-market analysis available through Currency Hedger. United Kingdom: Inflation and Monetary Policy The UK also faces an important week of economic data. Investors will focus on: UK inflation Wage growth Retail sales Bank of England monetary policy Inflation and wages will be particularly important in determining expectations for the Bank of England's policy path. Any evidence that underlying price pressures remain persistent could limit the scope for monetary easing, while weaker wage or consumer data could strengthen expectations for a more accommodative stance. Sterling and UK government bond yields are likely to remain sensitive to the incoming data. Japan: Monetary Policy in Focus The Bank of Japan will also take centre stage. Markets continue to assess the direction of Japanese monetary policy against the backdrop of inflation, wage growth and the country's evolving interest-rate environment. Any change in policy guidance could have implications well beyond Japan, particularly through the yen and global bond markets. Currency movements will remain an important part of the broader macro picture, with the yen's reaction potentially influencing risk sentiment across global markets. Europe: Germany and the Euro Area European markets will also have several important releases to digest. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment indicator will provide an updated view of investor confidence in Europe's largest economy. The euro area will release: Goods trade data Industrial production The data will help investors assess the underlying strength of European economic activity at a time when the region remains exposed to energy-price developments and global trade uncertainty. For European investors, the interaction between economic growth, energy costs and the European Central Bank's policy outlook remains a key theme. China: A Heavy Economic Calendar China enters the week with one of the busiest data schedules. Markets will receive updates on: Industrial production Retail sales Unemployment Housing prices Credit aggregates The data will be closely watched for evidence of whether domestic demand and industrial activity are gaining momentum. China's economic performance remains particularly important for the commodities complex, with changes in industrial activity and credit growth capable of influencing expectations for demand across energy, metals and agricultural markets. Oil and Gas: Geopolitics Remain the Immediate Risk Energy markets remain the most immediate geopolitical transmission mechanism for global financial markets. The possibility of improved dialogue surrounding tanker movements between the GCC and Iran has reduced some of the immediate upside pressure on crude oil and natural gas. However, the situation remains fluid. Any renewed disruption to shipping routes or escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly restore the geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. Conversely, evidence of sustained diplomatic progress could lead to a reduction in the premium that has recently been embedded in crude oil prices. This makes oil particularly important for the week ahead because the market is simultaneously dealing with geopolitical risk and growing concerns about inflation. BRICS Meeting Adds Another Geopolitical Focus A meeting of BRICS nations is also scheduled during the week. Investors will be watching for developments relating to trade, investment, energy markets and the broader evolution of economic relationships between member states. Any announcements affecting commodity trade or international financial flows could have implications for currencies and emerging-market assets. Today Markets View The week ahead has the potential to produce significant volatility across equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. The immediate focus will remain on whether the apparent stabilisation in energy prices can continue. If crude oil remains contained, markets may be able to focus more heavily on economic data and central-bank policy. If oil resumes its advance, inflation expectations and bond yields could quickly become the dominant market drivers again. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “The coming week brings together several of the market's most important drivers: energy prices, inflation, central-bank policy and global growth. The immediate direction of crude oil will be critical because a renewed energy rally could quickly alter expectations for inflation and interest rates. At the same time, the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan decisions give investors multiple potential catalysts for volatility.” The interaction between these themes will be particularly important rather than any single economic release in isolation. Key Events to Watch RegionKey EventsUnited StatesRetail sales, trade data, industrial production, Federal ReserveUnited KingdomInflation, wages, retail sales, Bank of EnglandJapanBank of Japan monetary policyGermanyZEW economic confidenceEuro AreaGoods trade, industrial productionChinaIndustrial production, retail sales, unemployment, housing, creditGlobalBRICS meeting, GCC-Iran developments, oil and gas markets The Bottom Line The week of September 14 is likely to be dominated by the interaction between geopolitics, energy prices, inflation and monetary policy. A stabilisation in oil and gas prices would give financial markets some breathing room, while renewed disruption around Gulf shipping could quickly reverse that relief. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve decision, UK and Japanese monetary policy, US retail sales and industrial data, Chinese economic releases and European indicators will provide multiple catalysts for markets. For daily coverage of global equities, commodities and macroeconomic developments, visit Today Markets. For currency and cross-market analysis, visit Currency Hedger. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. The analysis reflects market observations and opinions at the time of publication and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, futures contract or financial instrument. Financial markets involve significant risk and market conditions can change rapidly. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment and trading decisions and should conduct independent research and consider appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Geopolitics

September 12, 2026

Wall Street Breaks Four-Day Losing Streak as Oil and Treasury Yields Ease

Today Markets Analysis: US equities rebounded on Friday, ending a four-session losing streak as crude oil prices and Treasury yields paused their recent advances. The recovery provided some relief to investors after a volatile week dominated by geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs and renewed concerns over inflation and interest rates. The S&P 500 gained 0.9%, the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 509 points. The move higher came as long-dated Treasury yields eased from multi-year highs and oil prices stopped extending their sharp weekly rally. Energy markets had surged following escalating US-Iran tensions and a series of strikes involving shipping and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Oil and Yields Remain Central to the Equity Outlook The pause in energy prices provided an important source of relief for equity markets. Higher crude oil prices have become an increasing concern for investors because sustained energy inflation can feed directly into headline inflation while also raising costs for businesses and consumers. US headline inflation reached 3.4% in August, keeping inflation firmly above the Federal Reserve's longer-term objective and reinforcing expectations surrounding the Fed's upcoming policy decision. The relationship between energy markets, inflation and interest rates remains a key cross-market theme. Today Markets continues to monitor these developments across equities, commodities and rates, while Currency Hedger provides additional analysis of the currency and cross-market implications. Technology and Financial Stocks Lead the Recovery The rebound was relatively broad, with several major technology and financial stocks participating in the advance. Alphabet gained 1.5%, while Amazon rose 1.9% as credit-sensitive areas of the market benefited from the moderation in oil prices. Financial stocks also recovered, with JPMorgan rising 0.8%. Chipmakers were among the stronger performers: AMD +2.5% Intel +2.6% The technology sector's recovery helped support the Nasdaq, although investors remain sensitive to the direction of Treasury yields given the impact of higher discount rates on growth-oriented equities. Oracle Fades Despite Strong Results Oracle provided a notable contrast to the broader technology rally. The stock initially moved higher following strong results but subsequently reversed course, finishing 1.8% lower. The reaction highlights the increasingly demanding expectations surrounding large technology companies, where strong headline results may not be sufficient to sustain gains if forward expectations or valuations remain elevated. Dell Hits Record High Dell Technologies surged 11.9% to an all-time high following an RBC Outperform initiation. The move made Dell one of the strongest individual performers in the session and provided another example of the continued appetite for companies exposed to the artificial-intelligence and technology infrastructure investment cycle. Weekly Performance Despite Friday's rebound, the major indices remained lower for the week. IndexFridayWeekly PerformanceS&P 500+0.9%-0.6%Nasdaq 100+0.9%-0.7%Dow Jones+509 pts-426 pts The weekly declines underline that Friday's move represents a recovery from recent selling pressure rather than confirmation that the broader correction has ended. Today Markets View The immediate equity reaction to Friday's decline in oil prices and Treasury yields is constructive, but the broader market remains highly sensitive to developments in energy and rates. The key question for investors is whether the recent surge in crude oil and bond yields was a temporary geopolitical shock or the beginning of a more persistent inflationary impulse. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Friday's rebound provides some relief for equities, but the market remains highly dependent on the direction of crude oil and Treasury yields. If energy prices stabilise and yields continue to ease, equities have room to recover. However, another sustained move higher in oil would quickly bring inflation and monetary-policy concerns back to the forefront.” The next phase of the equity market is therefore likely to be determined less by Friday's individual gains and more by whether the pressure coming from energy and bond markets continues to moderate. What to Watch Next Markets will remain focused on several key drivers: US-Iran tensions and any further disruption to Gulf energy supplies or shipping. Crude oil prices, particularly whether the recent rally resumes. US Treasury yields and their response to incoming inflation data. Federal Reserve policy, with the next rate decision expected to remain a major market catalyst. Corporate earnings and guidance, particularly across technology and financial stocks. Inflation expectations, as elevated energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. For continued coverage of US equities, commodities, rates and global markets, visit Today Markets. Cross-market FX developments and the relationship between currencies, rates and commodities are also covered by Currency Hedger. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. The analysis reflects market observations and opinions at the time of publication and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security, futures contract or financial instrument. Investing and trading involve significant risk, and market conditions can change rapidly. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment and trading decisions and should conduct independent research and consider appropriate professional advice before making financial decisions.

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Soybean Oil Holds Range as Biofuel Demand, Chinese Buying and Energy Risks Support Prices

Today Markets Analysis: Soybean oil remains firmly supported by a combination of strong biofuel demand, elevated crude oil prices and renewed Chinese buying of US soybeans. At the same time, the market remains technically trapped within a well-defined range, leaving traders focused on whether buyers can eventually reclaim the 73.5 area or whether sellers regain control below 65. The broader soy complex continues to take direction from developments across energy, agricultural and global trade markets. Crude oil has remained elevated amid the continuing conflict involving Iran and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, while Indonesia's move toward a B50 palm oil biodiesel blend is reinforcing demand across competing vegetable oils. China has also emerged as an important demand driver, with roughly 1 million metric tons of US soybeans reportedly purchased during the week. Cumulative 2026 purchases are moving toward approximately half of the country's 25 million-ton annual commitment, ahead of President Xi Jinping's planned September 24 visit to Washington. US soybean crop conditions have meanwhile remained steady, with 58% of the crop rated good to excellent. Biofuel Policy Continues to Support Soybean Oil The energy complex remains an important fundamental driver for soybean oil. With crude oil trading at elevated levels, biodiesel and renewable diesel feedstock demand remains a key source of underlying support. The EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard rule, finalized on March 27, 2026, established record biomass-based diesel volumes of 5.4 billion gallons for 2026. That policy backdrop helped drive a substantial rally in soybean oil during the first half of the year. Indonesia's progression toward a B50 biodiesel blend adds another layer of support to vegetable oil demand, particularly as soybean oil competes with palm oil and other feedstocks in the global biofuel market. Energy markets therefore remain an important component of the soybean oil outlook, with developments closely monitored across the commodities complex by Today Markets and Currency Hedger. What the Market Has Done Soybean oil staged a powerful advance from the 50 area to 65 (Daily Level 4) between December 2025 and March 2026. The rally coincided with increasing expectations surrounding the EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard and ultimately pushed the market through 65, a major daily resistance level that had been relevant since 2023. From there: The market encountered responsive sellers around 70 and consolidated between 65 and 70 into mid-April. Buyers subsequently regained control, pushing prices above 70 and continuing higher into May. The advance reached the 73.5 area (Daily Level 3), where buyers initially managed to hold prices. The market then extended the rally toward 80 (Daily Level 2) in June. The move above 80 was rejected sharply, returning the market toward 73.5. Buyers ultimately lost control at 73.5, resulting in a move back toward 65 (Daily Level 4). At 65, buyers again stepped in and successfully defended the level. Since then, the market has developed a two-way consolidation between 65 and 73.5, defined as Range 1. Throughout the consolidation, buyers have continued to defend the yearly VWAP. The result is a market caught between established technical boundaries, with neither side yet able to generate sustained acceptance outside the range. Key Levels for the Coming Weeks The primary levels to monitor are 73.5 (Daily Level 3) on the upside and 65 (Daily Level 4) on the downside. These levels represent the current battle lines between buyers and sellers and should provide the clearest indication of the market's next directional move. Neutral Scenario If sellers continue to defend 73.5, soybean oil could rotate back toward 65, where buyers have demonstrated a willingness to defend prices. That would maintain the existing two-way consolidation within Range 1. A relatively muted outcome from the Trump-Xi summit, combined with crude oil remaining elevated but failing to extend significantly higher, could help preserve this range-bound environment. Bullish Scenario A decisive break and acceptance above 73.5 would strengthen the technical outlook and potentially open the way toward 80 (Daily Level 2). The 80 area is likely to attract responsive sellers again. However, sustained acceptance above 80 would shift attention toward 85 (Daily Level 1), a significant level dating back to 2022. From a fundamental perspective, a larger-than-expected Chinese purchase announcement following the September 24 Washington summit could provide a catalyst for the bullish scenario. Further escalation of the Iran conflict, particularly if it pushes crude oil materially higher, could also increase demand expectations for biodiesel feedstocks and strengthen soybean oil. Bearish Scenario The bearish setup would become more compelling if buyers fail to defend 65 and the market establishes acceptance below that level. A sustained break lower could expose 60, followed by 56.5 (Daily Level 5), a significant level from 2025. Potential catalysts include a sudden ceasefire or meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East that causes crude oil to retreat sharply, or weaker-than-expected Chinese soybean purchases following the Washington summit. Today Markets View Soybean oil remains fundamentally supported, but the technical structure is increasingly important. 65 and 73.5 are the key levels. Until one of those boundaries gives way with sustained acceptance, the market remains a range rather than an established directional trend. The fundamental backdrop, however, creates the potential for a significant breakout. Biofuel mandates provide structural demand, elevated energy prices maintain a degree of support for vegetable oil feedstocks, while Chinese soybean buying introduces an important demand catalyst. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, said: “Soybean oil remains caught between strong structural support from biofuel demand and a well-defined technical range. The 65–73.5 zone is currently the key battleground, but the combination of Chinese demand, energy prices and the outcome of the Washington summit could provide the catalyst required to break that range.” The Bottom Line Soybean oil remains at an important technical crossroads. The 65 area has repeatedly attracted buyers, while 73.5 has so far capped the upside. A break above 73.5 would place 80 and potentially 85 back into focus, while sustained acceptance below 65 would expose 60 and 56.5. Fundamentally, record biofuel mandates, elevated crude oil prices and Chinese soybean demand continue to provide support. Conversely, any meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East or disappointment on Chinese purchases could quickly weaken the bullish case. For now, the market remains in Range 1, but the next sustained move outside 65–73.5 could establish the direction for the next major phase of the soybean oil market. For continued agricultural, energy and commodities analysis, visit Today Markets. For FX and cross-market analysis, Currency Hedger provides additional market intelligence across global financial markets. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence Disclaimer This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. The analysis reflects market observations and opinions at the time of publication and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, security or financial instrument. Futures and derivatives trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Losses may exceed initial margin deposits, and market conditions can change rapidly. Any scenarios, price levels or market expectations discussed are hypothetical and are intended solely to illustrate potential market behaviour. They do not represent actual trading results or guarantees of future performance. Readers are solely responsible for their own trading decisions and risk management. Independent research and appropriate professional advice should be considered before engaging in futures or derivatives trading.

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Energies

September 12, 2026

Natural Gas Prices Ease as Storage Build Beats Expectations

Today Markets Analysis: US natural gas futures edged lower on Friday as a larger-than-expected weekly storage build reinforced concerns over adequate supply, although persistent heat across parts of the United States and strong electricity demand continue to provide underlying support. October Nymex natural gas futures (NGV26) closed 0.003 lower, or 0.11%. The latest developments are being closely monitored by Today Markets, with additional currency and cross-market analysis available through Currency Hedger, both part of the Octalas Group. EIA Storage Build Weighs on Prices Natural gas prices came under pressure following Thursday's weekly EIA storage report, which showed US inventories increasing by 40 Bcf during the week ending September 4. The build exceeded the market expectation of 34 Bcf, reinforcing concerns that US natural gas supplies remain comfortable heading into the autumn shoulder season. However, the increase remained below the five-year seasonal average build of 52 Bcf, preventing the report from being entirely bearish. As of September 4, US natural gas inventories were 2.7% below year-ago levels, but 4.8% above the five-year seasonal average. The inventory position therefore points to adequate overall supply, although the year-on-year deficit provides some underlying support. Warm Weather Supports Electricity Demand Weather remains an important near-term bullish factor. The Commodity Weather Group expects above-normal temperatures across the South and Southeast through September 20, potentially increasing natural gas demand from power generators as air-conditioning requirements remain elevated. Strong electricity consumption is already supporting gas-fired power generation. The Edison Electric Institute reported Thursday that US lower-48 electricity output during the week ending September 5 increased 19.69% year-on-year to 100,302 GWh. Electricity generation over the preceding 52 weeks also increased 3.00% year-on-year to 4,392,478 GWh. The combination of elevated temperatures and stronger electricity consumption is therefore providing an important offset to the bearish storage picture. US Gas Production Remains Elevated Supply continues to represent a major headwind for natural gas prices. According to BNEF, US lower-48 dry natural gas production was running at approximately 113.8 Bcf/day, up 4.4% year-on-year. Lower-48 gas demand stood at 75.8 Bcf/day, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, estimated net flows to US LNG export terminals reached 19.8 Bcf/day, up 1.5% week-on-week. Strong production combined with robust LNG demand is keeping the US market well supplied, although continued LNG exports are helping absorb a portion of the country's growing gas output. Super El Niño Could Weigh on Winter Demand The medium-term outlook remains more challenging for natural gas bulls. Market expectations for a potentially powerful “Super El Niño” could result in warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere during the autumn and winter. If realised, warmer conditions would reduce heating demand for natural gas and potentially lead to further inventory accumulation. This is particularly important because the market is already carrying above-average storage levels. The EIA projected on August 11 that US natural gas inventories could reach approximately 3,985 Bcf by the end of October, which would represent the highest end-October storage level in a decade and approximately 5% above the five-year average. EIA Raises Future Production Forecast The supply outlook is also becoming increasingly bearish. The EIA raised its estimate for US dry natural gas production in 2027 to 116.0 Bcf/day, compared with its previous July forecast of 115.3 Bcf/day. Higher production capacity could keep downward pressure on prices if demand growth fails to keep pace with supply. For a market already facing elevated storage, stronger production expectations represent a significant medium-term risk. Europe Remains Below Seasonal Storage Levels European gas storage provides a contrasting signal. As of September 8, European storage facilities were approximately 67% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of 84%. The relatively low level of European inventories could provide some support to global LNG demand as the Northern Hemisphere moves toward winter. However, the impact on US prices will depend heavily on LNG export utilisation and the relative price relationship between US gas and European benchmark markets. This is one area where broader cross-market analysis from Currency Hedger can be useful, particularly when assessing the interaction between energy prices, currencies and international demand. Natural Gas Rig Count Near Three-Year High Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US natural gas drilling rigs increased by two to 132 rigs during the week ending September 11. The total is only slightly below the three-year high of 134 rigs recorded in February 2026. The continued strength in drilling activity suggests US producers remain confident in the longer-term economics of natural gas production, adding another potential source of supply growth. Today Markets View The natural gas market remains caught between strong short-term demand and comfortable medium-term supply. Warm temperatures, rising electricity generation and relatively low European storage are providing support, while US production growth, above-average domestic inventories and the potential for a strong El Niño create significant downside risks. The key issue for the market is whether elevated power-sector demand can continue absorbing increasing US production before the arrival of cooler weather. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, commented: “Natural gas is currently balancing two very different narratives. Near-term electricity demand remains strong, but the storage position and continued production growth suggest the market has little room for a significant deterioration in demand. The winter weather outlook will ultimately determine whether today's comfortable supply position becomes a larger surplus.” From a broader market perspective, Currency Hedger Contributor analysis also highlights the importance of watching energy markets alongside currency movements, particularly as changes in commodity prices can influence inflation expectations, interest-rate expectations and major currency pairs. For ongoing natural gas, energy and commodities analysis, visit Today Markets. For FX, currency and cross-market analysis, visit Currency Hedger. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today MarketsCurrency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence

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Energies

September 12, 2026

WTI Crude Oil Falls as Demand Concerns Clash with Middle East Supply Risks

Today Markets Analysis: WTI crude oil prices retreated on Friday following Thursday’s sharp 6.7% rally, as traders weighed deteriorating global demand expectations against mounting concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. October WTI crude oil futures (CLV26) closed $2.43 lower, or 2.37%, while October RBOB gasoline (RBV26) fell 8.60 cents, or 2.53%. For the latest energy-market intelligence and commodities analysis, visit Today Markets. IEA Raises Deficit Forecast Despite Demand Weakness The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Friday that high oil prices and restricted supply are expected to produce the largest annual decline in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the IEA simultaneously raised its forecast for this year’s global oil deficit to 1.7 million barrels per day, up from its previous estimate of 1.3 million bpd. The agency attributed the widening deficit to supply restrictions associated with the ongoing US-Iran conflict, while also pushing back its forecast for the return of a global oil surplus until 2027, later than its previous projection for late 2026. That combination of weaker demand and tighter supply is creating an increasingly volatile fundamental environment for crude markets. Middle East Conflict Keeps Supply Risk Elevated Geopolitical risk remains one of the strongest supportive factors for crude oil. Reports indicated that two ships were struck by unidentified projectiles near Oman on Thursday, with Iran reportedly considered a possible source. Tehran has also warned that it is prepared for a more intense conflict and could escalate retaliatory attacks if the US continues targeting Iranian territory and infrastructure. The possibility of a prolonged conflict that restricts crude production, exports or shipping routes across the Middle East continues to underpin oil prices. Yemen's Houthi rebels are adding another layer of risk after targeting Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, forcing several oil facilities to suspend production. Saudi Arabia reported Thursday that August crude production fell to 6.238 million bpd, its lowest level since 1990. Red Sea Shipping Risk Increasing The Houthi takeover of the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha has further increased concerns surrounding regional shipping. Mokha lies approximately 50 miles from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on Red Sea routes for crude exports. However, escalating Houthi activity over the past two months has disrupted that alternative export corridor. The combination of Hormuz disruption and increased Red Sea risk has created an unusually significant transportation threat for global oil markets. Global Supply Tightening Vitol Group said global oil markets are continuing to tighten, estimating that approximately 2 million bpd of Middle Eastern crude exports have been lost, with another 2 million bpd affected in Russia following Ukrainian drone attacks. Data compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa indicated that Saudi Arabia's August crude exports fell to approximately 3 million bpd, the lowest level in nine years. These developments provide an important counterbalance to concerns over weakening global demand. Israel-Iran Conflict Adds Further Risk Crude oil prices are also supported by the possibility that Israel could become more directly involved in the US-Iran conflict. Israeli Defense Minister Katz warned last Thursday that an Iranian attack on Israel would remove existing restrictions on Israel's response against the Iranian regime. Israel has simultaneously intensified attacks against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, while continuing military operations against Hamas in Gaza. The continued expansion of regional hostilities reduces the likelihood of a rapid resolution and could delay the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Russian Oil Production Under Pressure Ukraine's intensified drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is also reducing Russian crude production and processing capacity. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest level in 24 years, following damage to energy infrastructure from Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. Secondary-source estimates published by OPEC showed Russian crude production falling to 8.89 million bpd in July, a six-year low. Russia is also experiencing domestic fuel shortages. Reuters reported on August 28 that Russian gasoline production had fallen to approximately 80,000 tonnes per day in August, equivalent to only around 70% of domestic demand. The disruption represents another potential source of tightening in global refined-product markets. OPEC+ Supply Increases Provide a Bearish Counterweight Despite the geopolitical risks, OPEC+ supply policy remains a bearish factor. OPEC delegates approved their final planned production increase of 188,000 bpd for September on August 2. The increase completes the restoration of the 1.65 million bpd supply reduction introduced in 2023, with the group indicating that production should remain broadly steady for the remainder of the year following the September increase. However, actual production may struggle to reach planned levels while military attacks continue to disrupt oil infrastructure across the Middle East. OPEC crude production fell by approximately 900,000 bpd in August to 19.91 million bpd, highlighting the difference between official production targets and actual supply availability. Tanker Storage Falls Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that had remained stationary for at least seven days fell 16% week-on-week to 92.64 million barrels during the week ending September 4. The decline suggests that some previously stranded crude is moving back into the market, although the broader disruption to Middle Eastern shipping remains a significant concern. US Inventories Provide Mixed Signals Thursday's EIA report was broadly bearish for crude oil and refined products. US crude inventories declined only 391,000 barrels, substantially less than the expected 1.35 million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased by 1.27 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.25 million-barrel decline. Distillate inventories also rose by 2.09 million barrels, versus expectations for a 700,000-barrel draw. US crude production increased 0.6% week-on-week to a record 13.947 million bpd. The main supportive element was Cushing crude inventories, which fell by 684,000 barrels. The EIA reported that as of September 4: US crude inventories were 0.1% above the seasonal five-year average. Gasoline inventories were 5.5% below the seasonal five-year average. Distillate inventories were 14.0% below the seasonal five-year average. The record level of US production remains a significant bearish consideration for crude prices, although relatively tight gasoline and distillate inventories provide some support to refined products. US Oil Rig Count Edges Higher Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs increased by one to 450 rigs during the week ending September 11. The total remains modestly below the 1.25-year high of 455 rigs recorded during the week of August 14. The relatively stable US drilling activity suggests domestic producers remain capable of maintaining elevated production levels despite the recent volatility in global crude markets. Today Markets View The crude oil market remains fundamentally conflicted. On one side, record US production, weak demand expectations, the EIA's larger-than-expected product inventories and the completion of OPEC+'s planned supply restoration all argue for lower prices. On the other, the physical supply picture is becoming increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks affecting Red Sea shipping, reduced Saudi exports and continuing damage to Russian energy infrastructure create substantial upside risk. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, commented: “The oil market is being pulled in two opposing directions. Demand fundamentals are deteriorating, but the market is increasingly pricing the risk that geopolitical disruptions could remove significant volumes of crude from global supply chains. Until there is greater clarity around Hormuz and the wider Middle East conflict, downside moves in crude are likely to remain vulnerable to sharp reversals.” The immediate direction of crude prices will therefore depend heavily on whether supply disruption or demand destruction becomes the dominant market narrative. For further oil, energy and commodities analysis, visit Today Markets. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Coffee Futures Ease as Record Brazil Exports and Rising Global Supply Weigh on Prices

December Arabica coffee futures (KCZ26) closed lower on Friday, falling 2.45 points, or 0.85%, while November ICE Robusta coffee (RMX26) declined 29 points, or 0.82%. Arabica prices consolidated just above Thursday’s seven-week low as the market continued to digest evidence of increasing global coffee availability. Brazil remains a key source of bearish pressure, with export volumes accelerating as the country’s harvest approaches completion. Brazilian exporter group Cecafe reported late Thursday that total Brazilian coffee exports in August increased 31% year-on-year to 4.155 million bags, a record for the month. Arabica exports rose 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. Brazil’s Trade Ministry also reported that August coffee exports increased 44.6% year-on-year to 206,618 metric tonnes, marking the highest monthly volume in eight months. Global Supply Outlook Coffee prices have also been pressured by the International Coffee Organization’s latest assessment of global supply and demand. The ICO projects 2025/26 global coffee production at a record 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% year-on-year, while consumption is expected to decline 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. That would leave the global market with an estimated 3 million-bag surplus, representing the first surplus in five years. Weather developments in Brazil are also adding to the bearish outlook. Somar Meteorologia reported 8.9 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais during the week ending August 30, equivalent to 127% of the historical average. Above-normal rainfall could support flowering ahead of next year’s crop. Vietnam Robusta Supply in Focus Robusta prices remain vulnerable to increasing Vietnamese exports and production expectations. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports during January-August 2026 increased 13.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million tonnes. Full-year 2025 exports rose 17.5% to 1.58 million tonnes. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to increase 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately 29.4 million bags. However, heavy rainfall across Vietnam’s Central Highlands is providing some support to robusta prices, with concerns that flooding could damage farms and disrupt production in the country’s major coffee-growing region. Inventories Provide a Diverging Signal ICE inventories are sending different signals across the two markets. ICE Arabica stocks fell to 217,932 bags on Friday, the lowest level in 27 years. Falling exchange inventories remain a supportive factor for arabica prices. Robusta inventories are moving in the opposite direction. ICE robusta stocks reached a 9.5-month high of 5,004 lots on September 2, before easing slightly to 4,972 lots on Friday. El Niño Risk Remains a Key Bullish Factor Despite the improving supply outlook, weather remains an important upside risk. Coffee trader Commercial has warned that an El Niño weather pattern could delay rainfall across Brazil during September and October, potentially affecting the flowering period and reducing the potential of the 2026/27 crop. The US Climate Prediction Center previously warned that the emerging El Niño could become one of the strongest such events in more than 75 years. If confirmed, the resulting shifts in rainfall, temperatures and extreme-weather risks could affect coffee production across both South America and Asia. USDA Forecast Points to Record Production The latest USDA biannual forecast remains bearish for the medium-term coffee outlook. The USDA expects 2026/27 global coffee production to rise 6.0%, or 10.8 million bags, to a record 189.7 million bags, largely reflecting improved growing conditions in Brazil. Global arabica production is forecast to increase 12% year-on-year, while robusta production is expected to decline 0.7%. World ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. For Brazil specifically, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts a record 71.9 million-bag 2026/27 crop, representing a 14% year-on-year increase. Today Markets View The coffee market is currently caught between strong near-term supply and longer-term weather risk. Record Brazilian exports, rising global production estimates and improving supply expectations are creating a bearish fundamental backdrop, particularly for arabica. At the same time, historically low ICE arabica inventories and the potential impact of El Niño prevent the market from becoming decisively bearish. For robusta, Vietnamese export growth and rising ICE inventories remain significant headwinds, although excessive rainfall in the Central Highlands could provide temporary support. Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets, commented: “Coffee remains a market of competing fundamentals. The immediate supply picture is clearly improving, with Brazil and Vietnam delivering stronger export volumes, but the market is already looking beyond the current harvest. Extremely low arabica inventories and the potential impact of El Niño on the next Brazilian crop could create renewed upside volatility if weather conditions deteriorate.” For further commodities analysis, market intelligence and trading insights, visit www.todaymarkets.com. Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Cocoa Futures Ease as Supply Concerns Offset Crop Risks

Cocoa futures finished slightly lower on Friday, with December ICE New York cocoa settling down 1 point at 4,xxx and December ICE London cocoa falling 14 points, or 0.32%. Prices eased after gaining momentum earlier in the week, as improving supply prospects continued to offset concerns surrounding the outlook for the 2026/27 West African crop. Ghana provided some support midweek after the country’s cocoa regulator proposed increasing farmer payments by 6% for the 2026/27 season. Higher producer prices could encourage farmers to hold back beans in anticipation of better returns, potentially tightening near-term availability. However, global supply remains a bearish influence. Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is currently well supplied and better positioned to manage weather-related risks than during the 2023/24 El Niño season, when cocoa prices surged to record highs. Ivory Coast production and arrivals continue to weigh on the market. Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports reached 2.14 million metric tons for the October 1, 2025 through August 30, 2026 marketing year, up 19% from the same period last year. The country’s cocoa regulator also reported that production reached 2.06 million metric tons between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 million tons a year earlier. ICE cocoa inventories remain elevated. Stocks reached a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags last Friday before edging lower to 3,415,952 bags by Friday. Despite the recent pullback, cocoa retains underlying support from concerns over West African crop quality. Cloudy conditions and limited sunshine across Ivory Coast and Ghana have increased the risk of black pod disease, potentially reducing bean quality. Ghana’s crop outlook remains particularly concerning. The Cocoa Board estimated on August 20 that the 2026/27 crop could reach approximately 650,000 MT, down 13% from 750,000 MT last season. COCOBOD later projected a potentially much lower range of 450,000 to 550,000 MT, citing swollen shoot disease, aging farms and potential El Niño-related weather risks. The Ivory Coast outlook is also being closely monitored. Early assessments for the 2026/27 main crop indicate below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development. Initial estimates point to production of around 1.8 million MT, approximately 18% below the estimated 2.2 million MT produced in 2025/26. Global balance estimates have also become more supportive. StoneX recently reduced its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus forecast to 25,000 MT from 149,000 MT, citing potential El Niño risks to West African production. Transgraph Consulting expects the global surplus to decline to 80,000 MT in 2026/27 from 415,000 MT in 2025/26, largely due to an expected reduction in global production. Weather remains a key medium-term driver. The US Climate Prediction Center has warned that the developing El Niño pattern could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. El Niño conditions can bring warmer and drier weather to West Africa, reducing soil moisture and placing additional stress on cocoa trees. Demand signals remain mixed. European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% year-over-year in Q2 to 316,366 MT, marking the weakest second-quarter result in six years. North American grindings, however, increased 7.7% to 109,659 MT, while Asian grindings surged 25% to 224,646 MT, providing some evidence of improving demand outside Europe. Today Markets Analyst Louis Roche said the cocoa market remains caught between strong current supply and increasingly uncertain forward production prospects. “The near-term fundamentals remain relatively well supplied, but the market is increasingly focused on what the 2026/27 crop will deliver. West African weather, disease and early pod development will remain critical price drivers as the new season develops.” Cocoa Futures December 2026 ICE New York Cocoa: down 1 point, or 0.02% December 2026 ICE London Cocoa: down 14 points, or 0.32% Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets.

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Sugar Prices Fall as Crude Oil Gives Back Some Gains

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) on Friday closed down -0.58 (-3.10%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -15.20 (-2.82%). Sugar prices moved lower due to Friday’s decline of more than -2% in WTI crude oil prices, which gave back part of Thursday’s +6.7% surge to a 3.5-month high.  Lower crude prices undercut ethanol prices and could prompt the world’s sugar mills to divert less cane crushing to ethanol production and more to sugar, boosting sugar supplies. Sugar prices also had some positive carryover from Monday, when the Thai Sugar Millers Corp projected that 2026/27 Thailand sugar production could fall -17% y/y to 10 MMT. Thailand is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter.  Last Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 17-month high, and London sugar posted a 2-week high on the outlook for a global deficit.  Last Tuesday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT versus a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war.  Looking ahead, Czarnikow on August 14 predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. India’s Meteorological Department reported Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 15% below normal as of September 9, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for sugar prices.  A super El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Cotton Futures Close Lower as Outside Markets Pressure Prices

Cotton futures closed lower on Friday, with contracts down 14 to 226 points across the board and the front months leading the decline. A weaker tone across outside markets and a broader risk-off approach heading into the weekend weighed on prices. December cotton finished the week 27 points lower. Crude oil fell $2.49 per barrel on the session, while the US Dollar Index gained 0.038. The USDA’s latest Crop Production report lowered the US cotton yield estimate by 22 pounds to 776 pounds per acre, while production was cut by 410,000 bales to 13.2 million bales. Monthly WASDE data also showed old-crop US cotton stocks reduced by 50,000 bales to 4.15 million, while new-crop carryout fell 400,000 bales to 3.6 million due to the production and carryover adjustments. The latest NASS Cotton Ginnings report showed 222,700 running bales ginned through September 1, down 34.2% from the same period last year. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money reducing its net-long position by 7,806 contracts as of Tuesday, leaving the position at 100,170 contracts. Export Sales data was delayed this week. For the week ending September 3, 2026/27 sales totaled 73,854 running bales, nearly half the level reported for the same week last year but well above the previous week. New-crop 2027/28 sales totaled 2,454 running bales. Shipments reached 177,774 running bales, 36.53% above the same week last year. The Seam reported sales of 419 bales on September 10 at an average price of 84.65 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index rose 110 points on Thursday to 97.20. ICE-certified cotton stocks fell by 8,789 bales on September 10 to 41,626 bales. The Adjusted World Price declined 441 points on Thursday afternoon to 69.51 cents per pound. Cotton Futures October 2026 Cotton: 82.38, down 226 points December 2026 Cotton: 86.06, down 216 points March 2027 Cotton: 88.56, down 210 points

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Wheat Faces Friday Weakness, as USDA Hikes World Wheat Stocks

The wheat complex faced pressure across the three markets heading into the weekend. Chicago SRW contracts saw 8 ¼ to 16 ¼ cent losses across the board, with December slipping 6 ½ cents on the week. KC HRW futures saw weakness, with contracts 10 to 20 ¼ cents lower, as December was down 8 ¾ cents since last Friday. MPLS spring wheat was under pressure, with contracts 12 ½ to 20 ¼ cents in the red and December steady for the week. As expected this month, USDA left the US production estimate alone, as they wait for the Small Grains Summary on September 30. The rest of the US balance sheet was left unchanged, as US carryout was steady at 717 mbu.  On the world side, stocks are seen were raised by 3.04 MMT to 276.29 MMT. That same as Russian and Ukrainian exports were cut by a combined 4 MMT, as Australia output was up 3 MMT and Canada was up 1 MMT. Export Sales data was delayed to this morning due to the Monday holiday. The report showed 2026/27 wheat sales of just 194,233 MT, which was short of trade estimates of between 250,000 and 500,000 MT in the week ending on September 3. That was down 37.64% from last year and 36.39% below the same week last year.  Weekly CFTC data showed managed money cutting back 10,392 contracts from their fresh net long in Chicago wheat futures and options to 4,262 contracts as of September 3. Specs in KC wheat added 964 contracts to their net long to 51,248 contracts on Tuesday.  Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.07, down 16 1/4 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.25 1/4, down 16 cents, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.84, down 7 3/4 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.98 1/2, down 20 1/4 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.30 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.45, down 17 1/2 cents,

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Uncategorized

September 12, 2026

Soybeans Face Friday Pressure as USDA Increases Production

Soybeans fell into the Friday close, with contracts down 21 to 35 ¾ cents across the board, as money came off the table. November was down 13 ¼ cents for the week. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was down 36 cents at $12.38 ½. Soymeal futures were down $1.50 to $4.20 at the close, with October down $1.40 this week. Soy Oil was 135 to 227 points lower across the board, as October held on for a 30 point gain for the week. There was just 1 delivery issued against September soybeans overnight, with 3 for soybean meal and 134 deliveries against September bean oil. They expire on Monday. USDA’s monthly Crop Production report showed soybean yield at 52.8 bpa, up 0.1 bpa from the August projection and compared to estimates of 52.4 bpa. Production was 16 mbu higher to 4.535 bbu, as harvested acres were also raised by 100,000 acres to 85.881 million acres.   Old crop US stocks were unchanged this month at 325 mbu. With the increase to production, USDA cut carryout for 2026/27 soybeans by 10 mbu to 310 mbu as exports were raised by 10 mbu. Monthly WASDE data showed the 2025/26 world ending stocks estimate up 0.15 MMT to 125.27 MMT, as new crop was down 0.19 MMT to 124.02 MMT.  Weekly Export Sales data from this morning showed 175,309 MT in net cancellations for the week of 9/3 for old crop. New crop sales were seen at 2.637 MMT, as 672,381 MT were rolled over from unshipped 2025/26 sales.  Soybean meal sales in the week of 9/3 came in at 42,552 MT for 2025/26, with 284,535 MT for 2026/27 and in the middle of the expected range of 150,000 to 950,000 MT. Bean oil sales were tallied at just 83 MT, vs, estimates of 0 to 12,000 MT. Commitment of Traders data indicated the managed money spec funds in soybean futures and options adding 24,848 contracts to their net long in soybean futures and options. That stood at a record net long on Tuesday at 266,031 contracts. Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $12.80 1/4, down 35 3/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $12.38 1/2, down 36 cents, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $12.96 1/2, down 35 3/4 cents, Jan 27 Soybeans  closed at $13.12, down 35 1/4 cents,

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Corn Fades Lower into Fridays Close Despite USDA Yield Cut

Corn futures closed out the Friday session with contracts 2 ¾ to 5 cents lower, selling the fact on the lower yield number. December was down 6 ½ cents on the week. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 3 1/4 cents at $4.84 3/4.  USDA reported a private export sale of 264,000 MT this morning, all to Mexico for 2026/27 shipment. The monthly Crop Production report from NASS showed US corn yield down 2.2 bpa to 178.5 bpa, and in line with trade estimates. Production was down 213 mbu from August at 15.8 bbu as harvested acres were trimmed by 87,000 acres to 85.506 million acres. Via the WASDE, old crop ending stocks were down 23 mbu to 1.922 bbu as the World Ag Outlook board increased exports by 25 mbu and added 2 mbu to imports. New crop carryout was cut by 86 mbu on the production adjustment and carryover, to 1.567 bbu. They also adjusted feed and residual 150 mbu lower. World ending stocks were 2.55 MMT higher for 2025/26 this month to 301.38 MMT, as old crop Brazilian production was up 1 MMT to 141 MMT. New crop world carryout was 2.55 MMT lower, to 272.10 MMT Export Sales data from this morning, with a total of 79,788 MT of 2025/26 sales in the week of 9/3 to round out the marketing year. Sales for new crop in the week ending on September 3 were tallied at 1.929 MMT, with 993,349 MT in unshipped sales carried over from 2025/26.  The weekly commitment of Traders update from CFTC showed managed money trimming back 5,891 contracts from their previously record net long in corn futures and options. That net long stood at a still large 425,171 contracts on September 3. Sep 26 Corn  closed at $5.10 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $4.84 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $5.30 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $5.45 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

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Markets

September 12, 2026

Cattle Rally into the Weekend

Live cattle futures closed the Friday session rallying $1.75 to $2.85 into the final bell, as October was $6.72 higher for the week. Cash trade picked up on Friday, with sales noted $1-6 higher at $222-225. The Friday morning Fed Cattle Exchange showed $225 sales on 45 of the 952 head offered, with $223-224 bids on other lots. Feeder cattle futures posted gains of $3.85 to $5.40 across the board on Friday, as September futures were $13 higher for the week The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $2.26 on September 10 to $331.22. Export Sales data from USDA showed beef sales for 2026 at just 8,581 MT for the week ending on 9/3. That was an 8-week low. Shipments were tallied at 11,521 MT, which was a 4-week low. Commitment of Traders data from CFTC showed managed money in live cattle futures and options trimming just 664 contracts from their net long in the week ending on September 3, taking it to 47,250 contracts. In feeder cattle futures and options, spec traders cut 727 contracts from their net long, with a net position at 6,781 contracts on Tuesday. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Friday afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel widening to $22.81. Choice boxes were down $2.43 at $375.94, with Select $1.07 higher to $353.13. USDA estimated the weekly Federally inspected cattle slaughter at 505,000 head. That is well shy of the same non-holiday week last year and 21,000 head below last week. Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $219.675, up $1.850, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $222.225, up $2.625, Feb 27 Live Cattle  closed at $224.000, up $2.850, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $337.825, up $5.250, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $332.500, up $4.950, Nov 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $328.175, up $5.400,

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Gold Rebounces Ahead of CPI

Gold market investors await a verdict in the form of the CPI inflation release, which could set the tone for gold just days before the Fed's interest rate decision. Today's US CPI inflation reading is likely the most important macro release of this quarter. The Federal Reserve meeting, for which we still have high expectations regarding a potential rate hike, takes place next week on September 15 and 16. Fed members, led by Governor Christopher Waller, openly state that their decision depends on whether today's data shows progress in disinflation. The market has long been pointing to hikes, but a lower-than-expected reading could delay this move at least until after the midterm elections. What Does the Market Expect? Market consensus points to headline inflation at 3.4% YoY, exactly the same as in July. Core inflation is expected to fall to 2.4% YoY, indicating that high energy prices do not yet have a strong second-round effect. The market expects monthly inflation to grow by 0.4% MoM and 0.2% MoM for the core reading. The 1-year inflation swap currently sits at 2.37%, but has clearly bounced back from low levels below 2% last month. What interesting insights do forecasts reveal? Annual core inflation is projected to drop to its lowest level since March 2021, while headline inflation is expected to remain elevated at 3.4%. This is a direct consequence of the energy shock following the outbreak of the war with Iran. Gasoline prices rose 4.5% MoM in August (after falling 2.9% in July), which will add about 16 basis points to the headline reading according to Bloomberg Economics calculations. Fuel-related inflation is currently the main driver of the elevated CPI indicator. Outside of fuel, the rest of the basket remains relatively calm. Shelter costs continue to be the main contributor, though they are systematically slowing down. Why This Reading Is Exceptionally Hard to Price In The Fed doesn't look at CPI, but rather at the PCE deflator, which won't be published until September 30. The problem is that the exact same CPI data can yield drastically different PCE inflation readings depending on the breakdown of the report: A strong CPI driven by goods alongside cool services could result in a PCE reading that is lower than CPI. A weaker CPI, but with strong categories carrying heavy weight in PCE (software, recreational services), could result in PCE coming in higher than CPI. Nonetheless, a reading today that significantly diverges from consensus could awaken both hawks and doves. Ultimately, the devil is in the details, and the market will need to digest the components within minutes of publication, which is precisely what the Fed will focus on ahead of the upcoming decision. The threshold for keeping rates unchanged is around 0.23% MoM for core PCE. Above this level, annual PCE dynamics could rise from 3.3% to 3.4%. Bloomberg Economics estimates the reading to come in between 0.25–0.30%, which is above the threshold. A separate factor is the BEA's methodological revision on September 30 (covering portfolio management services, software, and legal services retroactively to 2021), which will lower the annual base by about 0.2 percentage points, technically "erasing" this acceleration. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has his own metric, which he mentioned at Jackson Hole: the share of 199 PCE components rising faster than 3%. At the time of his speech, it was 54% on a 12-month basis and 49% on a 6-month annualized basis. If this second figure drops after today's report, the scales will tip toward keeping rates unchanged. How Will Gold Respond? Gold is correcting its August breakout. Following the peak at 4692, we have seen three lower supply reactions and a pullback to exactly the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire wave from 4000 to 4692. Currently, gold prices have fallen below the red 25 SMA, which had acted as support throughout the August impulse. This shifts the market structure from bullish to corrective. Higher up, we still have the 200 SMA at 4547. As long as price remains below it, the medium-term outlook stays neutral. The green ascending trendline drawn from the late-July low was also broken. Price is currently defending just above the 100 SMA (4334). It's worth noting that gold is forming a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern with the neckline around $4,310. The target range for this pattern in the event of a breakdown could be near key support at $4,000. Scenarios The key level is 4311, which serves as the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern. If core inflation comes in hot—at 0.3% monthly or higher—gold should immediately test 4311. Breaking below this level with a daily close under it activates the pattern, opening the path first to 4265 (where the 61.8% retracement coincides with the 50 SMA), then to 4150, and ultimately targeting the 4000 zone. A reading in line with Bloomberg's forecast—0.24% monthly and 2.4% YoY—will likely keep the market range-bound between 4311 and 4445 without a clear advantage for either side. A softer surprise below expectations—at 0.2% or lower—should push price back above the 4428 to 4445 zone. However, true confirmation of a bounce will only come after a close above 4470, with the next target being the 200 SMA at 4547.

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Energies

September 11, 2026

Brent Holds Weekly Gain as Hormuz Risks Persist

Brent crude slipped below $105 a barrel on Friday but remained almost 9% higher for the week as investors weighed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions around the Strait of Hormuz against continued fighting across the Middle East. Gulf foreign ministers are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart in Oman on Monday as part of efforts to secure support for a temporary arrangement to manage shipping through the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency sharply downgraded its outlook for oil demand, forecasting a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day contraction in 2026, the largest annual decline since the Covid-19 pandemic as higher fuel prices and tighter supplies weigh on consumption. The IEA said demand could fall further if the Iran conflict persists. OPEC has also reduced its 2026 demand-growth forecast for a fifth consecutive time. However, renewed advances by Iran-backed Houthi militants towards the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have raised fresh concerns over supply disruptions.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Chart of The Day – Gold at a Crossroads: Bull or Bear Market?

Higher-than-expected U.S. CPI data for August, due today at 14:30, could trigger volatility in gold and the broader metals market. Precious metals may therefore remain in focus both before and after this key U.S. macroeconomic release. Gold has already rebounded twice from the $4,300 area in recent weeks, and a return above the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart, together with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, appears to be the main near-term target for bulls. In theory, a softer-than-expected CPI reading, particularly for core inflation, could support such a move. GOLD chart (H1 interval) So far, partly due to rising bond yields, gold has been unable to hold above $4,500 and has returned to a downward trend. However, the hourly chart offers some encouragement for bulls, as demand has re-emerged in an important support area and the metal appears unwilling to give up without a fight. The RSI has moved higher, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover that may point to improving short-term momentum. Source: xStation5 On the daily chart, gold is trading slightly below the 200-day EMA, suggesting a cautious approach toward precious metals and continued uncertainty among investors regarding the durability of the recent rebound. From a technical perspective, the medium-term trend remains bearish. A breakout above $4,440 could begin to challenge this weakness. At the same time, a small head-and-shoulders pattern has developed over recent weeks, with a local peak near $4,700 and the neckline close to current levels around $4,340. The RSI has fallen below the neutral 50 level, while the MACD averages continue to suggest that sellers retain the upper hand. The key medium-term resistance zone remains at $4,600–4,700, while $4,300 is the main support level. Source: xStation5

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Banks

September 11, 2026

Swedish Krona: Higher Oil and ECB stance pressure currency – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team explains that Sweden’s July Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicator was weak, but underlying domestic activity appears stronger, with solid services and consumption data. Despite this, a weak Swedish Krona, high Oil prices and the rate spread versus the European Central Bank (ECB) mean they still expect clear guidance for a hike this year, likely in November, while recent market moves show EUR/SEK drifting higher on the latest shocks. Weak GDP but hike still expected "In Sweden, the July GDP indicator was weak at 2.5% y/y and -0.8% m/m, although June was revised higher, while production looked somewhat better at 3.6% y/y driven by stronger services." "The domestic economy still appears stronger than the GDP print suggests, with solid services activity, high retail sales and weekly consumption data pointing to growth, while manufacturing and construction remain volatile." "The figure was closer to the Riksbank's June forecast, which may worry the doves on the Riksbank's board, but with a weak SEK, high oil prices and rate spread versus the ECB, it should not materially affect the September rate decision." "We still expect clear guidance for a hike this year, and we believe the hike will take place in November." "The combination of a rising oil price and a hawkish ECB was clearly negative for the SEK, with EUR/SEK rising from 11.16 towards 11.26."

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Banks

September 11, 2026

US Dollar: CPI outcome to steer rate expectations – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the stronger United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, with around 18 bps now priced for next week’s FOMC meeting. He notes that today’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI), especially core CPI at a forecast 0.2% M/M, will be crucial for US rate expectations, the Dollar and US Treasuries. CPI print key for Fed path The sell-off in global bond markets was also reinforced by the release of the stronger than expected US PPI report for August which has added more weight to the case for the Fed to begin hiking rates next week." "There are now 18bps of hikes priced into the US rate market ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting up from 13bps at the end of last week highlighting that market participants are now leaning more heavily in favour of a hike." "The PPI report revealed that the components that feed into the PCE deflator were firmer than expected. According to Bloomberg, they are likely to add close to 0.1ppt to the August print. Healthcare costs rose by 0.3%M/M and airfares by 3.2%M/M." The stronger PPI report makes it even more important that the release of today’s US CPI report comes in softer than expected if the Fed is to keep rates on hold for longer while the energy price shock is getting worse. The dollar index initially strengthened after the US PPI report was released but has quickly given back those gains." "The key focus today will be on the core CPI reading. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 0.2%M/M. If the reading is in line with the forecast or stronger the US rate market will continue to expect the Fed to hike rates supporting the USD. Whereas a softer reading could trigger a bigger sell-off by encouraging the US rate market to scale back Fed rate hike expectations while other major central banks are expected to continue tightening policy. "If the Fed stays on hold for longer it could fuel fears that it is falling behind the curve weighing more heavily on the US dollar and long-term US Treasuries."

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Banks

September 11, 2026

Australian Dollar: Fresh downside momentum targets 0.7120 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann flag a sudden AUD/USD selloff to 0.7156, with intraday momentum pointing to further losses toward 0.7140, though 0.7120 is seen as strong support for now. Over the next one to three weeks, the bank now expects the pair could decline toward 0.7120 unless it rebounds above 0.7210. Selloff shifts focus to lower supports "24-HOUR VIEW: AUD traded between 0.7210 and 0.7238 two days ago and closed largely unchanged at 0.7217 (+0.01%). When it was at 0.7220 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted that “momentum indicators are mostly flat,” and we expected AUD “to trade in a range between 0.7200 and 0.7235.” The subsequent price action did not unfold as expected. Instead of trading in a range, AUD staged a sudden and sharp selloff that reached a low of 0.7156. The rapid increase in momentum suggests further AUD downside toward 0.7140. Given the oversold conditions, AUD is unlikely to reach the major support at 0.7120. To keep the momentum going, AUD must hold below 0.7190, with minor resistance at 0.7175." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held the same view since last Friday (04 Sep, spot at 0.7205), when we indicated that AUD “could edge higher, but any advance is likely to stay within a 0.7160/0.7240 range.” After edging higher for several days and reaching a high of 0.7238 two days ago, AUD plunged and closed 0.83% lower at 0.7157 yesterday. The rapid increase in downward momentum indicates that AUD could decline toward 0.7120. However, if AUD were to break above 0.7210 (‘strong resistance’ level), it would mean that it is likely to continue to trade in a range."

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Banks

September 11, 2026

British Pound: Strong data clashes with dovish BoE view – ING

Francesco Pesole at ING argues that despite stronger United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and resilient Sterling, the move in Gilts is largely externally driven and not about domestic fiscal fears. ING maintains its view that the Bank of England will not hike further, warning of a potential dovish repricing and targeting higher EUR/GBP and lower GBP/USD into the fourth quarter. BoE seen resisting further tightening "Gilts took another blow yesterday, underperforming European peers. The 10-year is now eyeing 5.5%, and the 30-year is very close to 6.0%. Sterling held up well yesterday, confirming this was a purely externally driven move in gilts (which simply have higher beta to US Treasuries) and not caused by heightened fiscal concerns. " "Chancellor John Healey’s pledge to budget discipline is working in that sense. But it equally highlights how limited the room for any pro-growth government measure is." "That, among other things, sits at odds with markets’ mammoth bets on monetary tightening: 48bp by year-end, 110bp by July. Our baseline is still that the Bank of England won’t hike at all, leaving sterling in front of a potential cliff-edge dovish repricing." "UK GDP surprised to the upside this morning, rising 0.4% MoM after June's strong 0.3% gain. Around half the increase came from IT, continuing a familiar trend." "GBP is a tad stronger on the back of that, but these monthly growth prints have not had much impact on BoE decisions." "We continue to see upside room for EUR/GBP and downside for GBP/USD, with 4Q targets of 0.87 and 1.33."

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Banks

September 11, 2026

Polish Zloty: NBP turns cautious as inflation rises – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke reports that the Polish central bank kept its key rate at 3.75%, while Governor Glapiński signalled no cuts until year-end after previously sounding dovish. With rate cuts now seen as unrealistic given higher inflation and geopolitical risks, the completed policy U-turn should underpin the Zloty, though future moves will depend on whether the council follows through with hikes if inflation rises further. No cuts and conditional hike bias "It was widely expected that the Polish Central Bank (NBP) would leave its key rate unchanged at 3.75% this week. More interesting was what Central Bank Governor Adam Glapiński would say about the future path of interest rates, given that he had sounded dovish in July, signaling rate cuts, but started to change his wording on the sidelines of the G2 summit in light of rising inflation rates." "At yesterday’s press conference, it became clear that there will be no interest rate cuts until the end of the year, even though decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Glapiński noted that inflation could exceed the target and that geopolitical uncertainty remains high. He acknowledged that he had been dovish as recently as this summer but that, given the escalation in the Middle East, rate cuts are now unrealistic." "This marks the completion of the U-turn, and interest rate cuts are off the table for now - a development that should provide underlying support for the zloty. Nevertheless, the question remains as to how the NBP will proceed in the coming months." "While Glapiński made it clear that the Monetary Policy Council would consider interest rate hikes if inflation and inflation forecasts rise, the same applies in reverse for rate cuts. In the coming months, it will therefore be important to see whether, should inflation continue to trend upward, Glapiński - or rather, the Monetary Policy Council - will actually stand by its word and be prepared to raise the key interest rate. This will be key for the zloty going forward."

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Iron Ore Extends Fall as Steel Margins Weaken

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 720 per ton, extending losses for a third straight session as weakening steel margins in China clouded the demand outlook for the key steelmaking ingredient. Industry data showed that only around 8% of Chinese mills remained profitable, down on both a weekly and annual basis from roughly 30% and 60%, respectively. The figure also marked the lowest level since September 2024, as persistently elevated coke prices continued to squeeze profitability. China’s state-owned iron ore importer, China Mineral Resources Group, has also reportedly advised several steelmakers to avoid purchasing Rio Tinto Group’s key Pilbara Blend ore. Meanwhile, South Korean logistics and shipping company HMM signed a long-term shipping agreement with Brazilian miner Vale worth around US$3.5 billion to transport iron ore starting in 2030.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Steel Drops to 3-Week Low

Steel rebar futures slipped toward CNY 3,060 per ton, reaching a three-week low as worsening profitability across China’s steel sector weighed on sentiment. Industry data showed that only around 8% of Chinese mills were profitable, down from roughly 30% a week earlier and 60% a year ago. The reading was also the weakest since September 2024, with persistently elevated coke prices continuing to erode margins. Meanwhile, China’s leading industry association reportedly called on steelmakers last month to voluntarily curb output, with the aim of reducing inventories and restoring profitability after a challenging first half. However, analysts see limited willingness among mills to implement substantial production cuts, particularly as steel demand shows signs of stabilizing. Despite the weak fundamentals, investors expect consumption to receive a seasonal boost during September’s peak construction period.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Nickel Falls to 2-Month Low

Nickel traded around $16,550 per tonne, falling to its lowest level since July, as prospects for increased Indonesian supply weighed on prices. Indonesia’s Weda Bay Nickel, one of the world’s largest nickel mining operations, restarted mining after four months of care and maintenance, potentially bringing additional ore supply back to the market, although the ramp-up will be gradual and production volumes for the remainder of the year remain uncertain. Additionally, Indonesia’s 2026 mining quota was set at 250–260 million wet tonnes, below 379 million tonnes in 2025, limiting the scope for higher Indonesian ore supply. At the same time, the US 10-year yield approached 5%, while the dollar index climbed above 99, weighing on base metals broadly. Meanwhile, cuts to Chinese HPAL and MHP output have tightened intermediate supply, providing a countervailing factor to the Indonesian supply outlook.

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Banks

September 11, 2026

Brent: Supply risks and Saudi cuts support prices – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent and WTI have rallied sharply as Middle East tensions escalate and Saudi Arabia reports a steep drop in output. They highlight rising risks to Saudi energy infrastructure and Red Sea exports, alongside stronger Chinese crude buying and tight US inventories, suggesting Oil markets are increasingly focused on supply vulnerabilities. Middle East risks and Chinese demand "Oil prices surged, with ICE Brent settling more than 6% higher. In early morning trading today, prices neared $110/bbl. Oil’s resilience reflects a market now repricing both the duration and severity of the conflict, along with a clearer recognition of the mounting threat to regional supply." "And while meaningful volumes are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, flows remain well below pre‑war levels, underscoring how fragile the situation has become. Saudi energy infrastructure and crude oil exports from the Red Sea are increasingly at risk, with the Houthis in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia. As the Houthis have taken control of the Red Sea port of Mokha in Yemen, recent events increase the threat to shipping around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait." "Another market concern will be the August production numbers Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC. The latest monthly report shows Saudi Arabia produced 6.24m b/d, the lowest level since the 90’s. Saudi Arabia did supply more to the market than it produced." "These renewed supply concerns coincide with stronger Chinese buying in the physical market. Independent refineries in China have been steadily increasing run rates after bottoming in July. Data from JLC shows independent refiners running at almost 63%, up from 45% in July." "The latest EIA inventory data show US commercial crude oil inventories fell by just 391k barrels last week. After accounting for SPR releases, total US crude oil inventories declined by 1.64m barrels. In a sign of relief to refined product markets, gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 1.27m barrels and 2.09m barrels, respectively."

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Banks

September 11, 2026

Euro: Downside risks while 1.1585 holds against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight growing downside momentum in EUR/USD after a sharp drop to 1.1591, though they see limited scope for a sustained break below 1.1585 in the very near term. Over the coming weeks, a daily close under 1.1585 would raise the risk of a move toward 1.1565, while resistance is seen around 1.1645. Key support at 1.1585 in focus "24-HOUR VIEW: Following Wednesday’s price action, we indicated yesterday that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum,” and we expected EUR “to trade in a range between 1.1610 and 1.1650.” However, EUR staged a sharp decline during the NY session, dropping to a low of 1.1591 before recovering to close at 1.1610 (-0.19%). Downward momentum is increasing, albeit not significantly. Today, as long as EUR holds below 1.1630 (minor resistance is at 1.1620), it could test the major support at 1.1585. Based on the prevailing momentum, a continued decline below this level appears unlikely." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been expecting EUR to trade with an upside bias since late last week. On Monday (07 Sep, spot at 1.1625), we highlighted that “the upside bias remains intact, but EUR should stay within a narrower range of 1.1585/1.1670.” Yesterday, EUR fell to a low of 1.1591. Downward momentum is starting to build, but it is insufficient to indicate a sustained decline. However, if EUR were to close below 1.1585, it would increase the odds of a break below the next major support at 1.1565. On the upside, a breach of 1.1645 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that EUR is likely to continue to trade in a range."

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Silver Price – XAG/USD slips below $63.50 amid rising Fed rate hike odds

Silver declines as markets price in a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week. August US Producer Price Index rose 5.4% year-over-year, outpacing analyst expectations and fueling inflation worries. Escalating US-Iran conflict and Houthi advances near the Red Sea push oil prices higher, pressuring Silver. Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $63.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. Silver prices are declining as expectations grow for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a greater than 72% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase next week, a notable jump from the 61% chance recorded prior to the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data release. Investors are also closely bracing for the upcoming United States (US) consumer price index report, which could further solidify these monetary tightening expectations. This downward pressure comes on the heels of a hotter-than-expected PPI report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The report showed that the headline PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year in August, climbing from July's 4.8% increase and outpacing analyst forecasts of 5.3%. On a monthly basis, headline PPI matched expectations with a 0.4% increase, while core PPI rose by 0.2%, coming in slightly softer than initial estimates. Beyond monetary policy concerns, Silver is also contending with headwinds from surging oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict, which has heightened broader inflation fears. Compounding these geopolitical tensions, BBC sources report that Yemen's Houthis have seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha from Saudi-backed pro-government forces. This tactical capture places the Iran-backed group just 75 km (46 miles) away from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical southern gateway connecting essential trade routes between Asia and Europe. Industrial precious metals slump as rates rise and base metals falter According to TD Securities, “industrial precious metals, such as silver and PGMs, are taking a beating as rising rates and weakness across base metals weigh heavy,” underscoring how the more cyclical segments of the precious metals complex are bearing the brunt of the current macro backdrop.

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Forex Trading

September 11, 2026

United States Dollar Index holds onto gains above 99 ahead of US CPI data

The US Dollar trades firmly above 99.00 ahead of the US CPI data for August. The US headline CPI is seen remaining unchanged at 3.4% YoY. Stronger-than-expected US PPI growth has prompted Fed interest rate hike expectations. The US Dollar (USD) clings to its Thursday gains in early session on Friday, driven by faster-than-expected growth in the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher at around 99.12. On Thursday, the US PPI report showed that headline producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 4.8% in July. The headline inflation at the wholesale level was expected to arrive at 5.3%. The core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – grew at a faster pace of 4.6% YoY, as expected, compared to the previous reading of 4.3%. Higher-than-projected US PPI figures have prompted hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed raising interest rates at the policy meeting next week have increased to 72.4% from 61.2% seen before the data release. Later in the day, investors will pay close attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. US inflation risks seen tilted higher as TD flags tariff-related uncertainty According to economists at TD Securities, August inflation likely showed only modest further progress. They “project that core CPI rose 2.3% on a y/y basis, down 10 bps vs July, while headline inflation likely stayed unchanged at 3.4% y/y.” However, they caution that “risks to our forecasts” are “skewed to the upside” given their assumption of “a number of large price declines in tariff-exposed goods categories,” leaving some uncertainty around the near-term disinflation path. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 99.13. The near-term bias stays bearish as price holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 99.27 and below the key 50% Fibonacci retracement at 99.72, keeping recent rebounds capped within a broader corrective phase. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered toward the mid-40s, hinting at easing downside momentum, but it still falls short of signaling a decisive bullish shift while the index trades under these overhead levels. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 99.24 and the 20-period EMA at 99.27, with further barriers at the 50% retracement at 99.72 and then the 38.2% level at 100.21; a sustained break above this band would be needed to challenge the 23.6% retracement at 100.81. On the downside, support emerges at the 78.6% retracement around 98.54, ahead of the 100% Fibonacci anchor at 97.66, where a failure would expose a deeper bearish extension.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Gold eyes $4,300 break as USD sticks to gains amid Fed hike bets, ahead of US CPI

Gold is seen consolidating near its lowest level in over a week amid a broadly firmer USD. The US PPI report lifted Fed hike bets and underpins the buck, capping the commodity. Geopolitical risks further benefit the safe-haven USD ahead of the crucial US CPI report. Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to register any meaningful recovery and languishes near a one-and-a-half-week low, touched during the Asian session on Friday. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report lifted Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets, which continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for the non-yielding bullion. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday that the headline PPI accelerated to a 5.4% YoY rate in August, compared to the previous month's upwardly revised print of 4.8% and estimates of 5.3%. Stripping out food and energy, the core gauge matched forecasts and rose 4.6% YoY from 4.3% in July. This comes on top of inflation risks stemming from elevated energy prices and reaffirms expectations that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs next week. In fact, crude oil prices shot to the highest level since May 21 amid further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. The US Treasury plans to sanction a large, undisclosed bank on Monday as part of its ongoing economic pressure campaign against Iran. Moreover, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen seized the crucial Red Sea city of Mocha, expanding control over the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait and adding to growing market concerns about a prolonged disruption to oil supplies. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that the Iran war will likely continue until after the November midterm elections. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which might continue to support crude oil prices and the safe-haven Greenback. Hence, a strong US CPI number would push the USD higher, warranting some caution before placing bullish bets on gold. Nevertheless, the commodity remains on track to register weekly losses and depreciate further. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The precious metal trades marginally above the 50% retracement at $4,320 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,313, keeping price supported by key medium-term trend references. However, momentum indicators are softening, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below the 50 line, hinting at a waning bullish impulse rather than an outright reversal. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,409, followed by a stronger barrier at the 23.6% retracement of $4,519. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50% retracement at $4,320, reinforced by the 200-day EMA at $4,313. A break below this area would expose the 61.8% retracement at $4,231 and then the 78.6% level at $4,104, with the prior cycle low around $3,943 acting as a more distant floor.

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Forex Trading

September 11, 2026

Today Markets – Pick of The Week – USD/JPY

If you want to trade a volatile asset class right now, foreign exchange, specifically yen crosses and USD/JPY, is the place to find it. The yen has seen a huge uplift in its volatility in recent days, and is higher by more than 1.5% so far this week. A story of intervention The yen is a product of official Japanese and US pressure to strengthen the currency. Japanese officials first started intervening in the currency back in May when USD/JPY first hit 160.00. This round of physical intervention to buy the yen and strengthen the currency did not work, and USD/JPY climbed back to a high just below 164 at the end of July. At this point, the US joined forces with the Japanese to prop up the currency and buy yen. It is very rare that the US intervenes in a foreign currency, and the FX market has taken note. This marked a high point for USD/JPY, and since then it has dropped more than 10 big figures. This week, there has been another sharp drop in USD/JPY, from 160.00 to 153, the currency is trading just above this level at the time of writing. This time it is not known if US or Japanese authorities psychically bought the yen, however, there has been indirect intervention. The US controls the yen Earlier this week, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said ‘I am the house’, when it came to where the yen goes next. This is a powerful statement, he is basically saying that he has more information than the general market and if the US wants a stronger yen, they will get one. He also said the market can try and test his resolve, hinting that they will lose. This is an unusual style of jawboning, but it has worked and USD/JPY dropped another 70 pips on the back of these comments on Wednesday. What next for the yen The question now is, will the market listen to Bessent and will the yen keep strengthening, weakening USD/JPY? We think that the market will take Bessent, who was a former hedge fund manager who traded in FX for decades, at his word. The multilateral intervention in July to strengthen the yen marked a line in the sand for the Japanese currency, and it has weakened since then. Because the yen is being manipulated higher by Japanese and US officials, technical analysis can get tricky, however, we can assert the following: Momentum is firmly to the downside for USD/JPY 160.00 is still resistance, and we do not see this pair going above this level in the long term. 155.00 is key ST resistance, we do not think that Scott Bessent staked his reputation by saying he was ‘the house’, to see USD/JPY return to this level. A move to 150.00 appears inevitable. It is folly to try to beat the ‘House’ and bet against the US and Japanese authorities at this stage. What is Bessent and the US change their minds about the yen? But, what happens below 150? This gets tricky. Some analysts are looking for a move back to 140 for USD/JPY, the lowest level since 2023, but we think this will take some time. Added to this, there may be a limit to how much the US wants the yen to strengthen. Although a weak dollar boosts US trade, a strong yen along with rising Japanese bond yields could mean that Japanese investors start selling their holdings of US Treasuries. This is something that Bessent will not want to see, since Japan is the world’s largest holder of US Treasuries and US yields have already risen to multi year highs in 2026. What the (near term) future may hold If we see USD/JPY drop below 150 in the next few days, we think that a move to 140 will take much longer. An unruly unwind of USD/JPY could have unintended consequences for global financial markets. If Bessent is the house, then he should be able to make the yen rise and fall according to his timetable, and USD/JPY may not be a one-way bet in the longer term. Chart 1: USD/JPY, how the mighty fall Source: XTB, Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Copper Holds Decline as Tariff Fears Ease

Copper futures traded around $6.45 per pound on Friday after plunging nearly 5% in the previous session, pressured by reports that the US is reconsidering plans to impose import tariffs on refined metals. US officials were reportedly concerned that the proposed levies could push domestic copper prices even higher and increase manufacturing costs. The metal surged to record highs earlier this week as traders redirected shipments to US warehouses to capitalize on tariff-driven gains in local prices, tightening global supplies. This came amid ongoing shortages of sulfuric acid for major copper refiners worldwide, as supply pressures from GCC countries prompted China to suspend exports. Mined supply has also weakened, with Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan reportedly posting double-digit production declines, shortly after the International Copper Study Group pointed to a 1.1% drop in global output during the first half of the year.

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Energies

September 11, 2026

US Heating Oil Surpasses $5

US heating oil prices climbed to around $5.12 per gallon, their highest level on record, amid persistent tight distillate supplies. EIA data showed that US distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.1 million barrels in the week ended September 4, but remained 13% below the five-year average, indicating that inventories remain low. US refineries also operated at 97.8% of capacity during the week, leaving limited room to further increase distillate production. The supply squeeze comes as global supply risks intensify on multiple fronts, with Houthi attacks targeting Saudi energy infrastructure, prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries further constraining diesel supplies amid Russia’s export curbs. Meanwhile, seasonal agricultural activity and the approaching winter heating season could further boost distillate demand, putting additional pressure on already-tight supplies.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Soybeans Trade Above $13

Soybean futures traded above $13 per bushel, near their highest level since December 2023, supported by a fresh wave of Chinese buying of US supplies ahead of Friday’s widely anticipated USDA supply-and-demand report. China has bought around 1 million metric tons of US soybeans this week, including 340,000 tons of purchases confirmed by the USDA, bringing Chinese purchases close to half of the 25 million tons it has committed to buy annually through 2028. The buying comes ahead of a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, raising hopes for progress on agricultural trade and potentially lower tariffs on US farm goods. Traders are also watching the USDA report for changes to its US soybean production, yield and ending-stock estimates, which could provide further direction for prices. The USDA’s latest assessment showed that 58% of crops were rated good to excellent, unchanged from the prior week and above expectations.

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Energies

September 11, 2026

European Gas Climbs as Gulf LNG Disruptions Persist

European natural gas prices rose above €82/MWh on Friday, their highest level since December 2022, amid persistent disruptions to LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf. Fighting between the US and Iran has intensified over the past two weeks, centering on who controls the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing blockade has already disrupted around 20% of global LNG flows, primarily affecting shipments from Qatar. Europe has struggled to rebuild its depleted inventories, with storage sites around 67% full, the lowest level for this time of year in records dating back to 2009. While the European Commission said there is no immediate risk to gas security this winter, a sustained disruption to Gulf LNG supplies could further tighten global supply and force Europe to compete more aggressively with Asia and other buyers for alternative cargoes, potentially driving prices even higher as heating demand begins to increase. European gas prices have surged over 14% this week, marking their fifth weekly gain.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Corn Hovers Near 3-Year High

Corn futures hovered above $5.1 per bushel, near their highest since mid-2023, supported by tightening global supply as disruptions to Ukrainian exports reshape trade flows. Argentina is on track for record corn exports as buyers turn to its supplies following disruptions to Ukrainian shipments caused by Russian attacks on Black Sea ports. Argentina is expected to ship around 10 million metric tons in August and September, more than triple its typical volume for the period, supported by a record 71.7 million-ton harvest. Traders now await Friday’s USDA supply-and-demand report for changes to US corn production, yields and ending stocks, which could provide further direction for prices. The USDA’s latest assessment showed that 56% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, down from 57% a week earlier. Meanwhile, a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this month is also raising hopes for progress on agricultural trade and potentially lower tariffs on US farm goods.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Zinc Holds Decline

Zinc prices hovered below $3,900 per tonne after pulling back sharply from an over four-year high, amid a broader, sentiment-driven selloff across the base-metals complex. The downturn was triggered by a report that the White House was hesitating over import tariffs on refined copper, prompting traders to unwind bullish positions and take profits. Increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike next month also boosted the US dollar, reducing the appeal of dollar-denominated metals, while the prospect of increased Chinese export deliveries to the LME eased some supply concerns. Zinc has surged in recent months amid tightening supply conditions, with production disruptions at several mines, including in China, while the Middle East tensions have restricted Iranian ore shipments. LME warehouse inventories remain low relative to historical levels, while physical availability remains particularly tight outside China. The tightness is also evident in sharply lower smelter treatment charges.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Palm Oil Set for Third Straight Weekly Decline

Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower, hovering below MYR 4,900 per tonne and extending their recent decline amid bearish monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. In August, inventories rose 7.48% mom to an eight-month high of 2.82 million tonnes, while exports fell 7.5% to 1.29 million tonnes. Production, meanwhile, rose 1.39% to 1.82 million tonnes, adding to concerns over ample supplies. Early September shipments also remained weak, with cargo surveyors reporting that palm oil exports fell 11.7–17.5% in the first 10 days of the month from the same period in August. Higher crude oil prices capped weakness, with Brent rising above US$100 a barrel amid Middle East uncertainty, boosting palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Unusually dry conditions and low rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past six weeks, exacerbated by reduced fertiliser application, also offered some support. Contracts are heading for a third straight weekly drop, down around 0.9% so far.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Arabica Coffee Falls Sharply on ICO Projections for Record Coffee Production

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down -3.90 (-1.34%) on Thursday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed up +82 (+2.36%). Coffee prices are mixed today, with arabica falling to a 7-week low and robusta climbing to a 1.5-week high.  Arabica coffee prices fell Thursday amid projections from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) for a record global coffee crop and a surplus.  The ICO projects 2025/26 global coffee production will climb +4.4% y/y to a record 183.6 million bags and consumption will fall -0.9% y/y to 180.6 million bags, leaving the global coffee market in a 3 million bag surplus, the first surplus in five years. The end of Brazil’s coffee harvest is boosting arabica supplies and also weighing on prices.  On Tuesday, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported Brazil's Aug coffee exports rose +44.6% y/y to 206,618 MMT, the most in 8 months.    Also, above-normal rainfall in Brazil may benefit flowering for next year’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 8.9 mm of rain, or 127% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 30 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Robusta coffee has support from concern that heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-producing region, may flood farms and damage the country’s coffee crop.  Last Thursday, robusta fell to a 3-month low on signs of bigger coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.  Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported last Wednesday that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Aug) rose by +13.7% y/y to 1.33 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 218,467 bags on Thursday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots last Wednesday. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Cocoa Prices Gain as Ghana May Raise Farmer Pay

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +11 (+0.18%) on Thursday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed up +29 (+0.67%). Cocoa prices settled higher for a second day on Thursday amid carryover support from Wednesday when Ghana’s cocoa industry regulator proposed raising cocoa farmers’ pay by +6% for the 2026/27 season.  The proposed increase could push Ghana's cocoa farmers to withhold sales and seek higher prices for their cocoa sales. Last Wednesday, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving the market better prepared to manage risks than it did during the 2023/24 El Niño weather event that drove cocoa prices to record highs. Larger cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast are bearish for prices after last Tuesday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 30, 2026), up +19% from the same period a year ago.  Also, Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported last Wednesday that the Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, up +30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,436,742 bags last Friday. Cocoa prices recently strengthened, with NY cocoa posting an 11.25-month high last Monday and London cocoa posting an 11.25-month high last Tuesday.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices.  Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins this month.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported on August 26 that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  On August 21, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Sugar Prices Climb as Crude Oil Soars

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.33 (+1.79%) on Thursday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +4.00 (+0.75%). Sugar prices rallied on Thursday, with NY sugar posting a 1-week high and London sugar posting a 2.5-week high.  Soaring crude oil prices are supporting sugar, as WTI crude (CLV26) rose more than +6% on Thursday to a 3.5-month high. Higher crude prices support ethanol prices and could prompt the world’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, reducing sugar supplies. Sugar prices also have some positive carryover from Monday, when the Thai Sugar Millers Corp projected that 2026/27 Thailand sugar production could fall -17% y/y to 10 MMT. Thailand is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter.  Last Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 17-month high, and London sugar posted a 2-week high on the outlook for a global deficit.  Last Tuesday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT after a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  An excessively long position by funds in NY sugar could exacerbate any price downturn.  Last Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that funds boosted their long NY sugar positions by 28,526 to a net-long 132,496 positions in the week ended September 1, the highest in three years.  Green Pool Commodity Specialists on August 27 projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  Also, the European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said August 27 that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT. On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 15% below normal as of September 9, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Cotton Rallies with Support from Outside Factors

Cotton futures got spillover strength on Thursday from the outside markets, as contracts were up 40 to 101 points at the close. Crude oil rallied $7.88 per barrel higher on the session, with the US dollar index up 255 points.  Export Sales data is delayed to Friday due to the Monday holiday.  The Cotlook A index was up 10 points on Wednesday on 9/9 at 96.10. ICE certified cotton stocks were up 3,999 bales on September 9, with the certified stocks level at 50,415 bales. The Adjusted World Price was back down 441 points on Thursday afternoon to 69.51 cents/lb. Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 84.64, up 91 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 88.22, up 94 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 90.66, up 101 points

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Seasonal Trend Alert – Soybeans

https://youtu.be/klavp0Zkt_U?si=Dv7b7p8hkoQdXz-z This material is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures or options contract, and it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please see the full disclosures at the end of this piece. To get all the graphics for the full article, use the link at the bottom of this article The SetupSoybeans have been on a run. November beans traded to new highs today, RSI is sitting around 74.65, and price is stretched well above every major moving average on the daily chart — roughly 67 cents above the 50-day area and well above the longer-term average. The 14-day average true range has expanded to about 23 cents, so the market is not just higher, it is moving faster.The move has real fundamental support behind it. That is not in dispute:Routine flash sales to ChinaHigher energy prices lifting the vegetable oil complexPoor weather across parts of the U.S. over the last several weeksForward-looking concerns about El NiñoSo why write a piece about the downside?Because three separate, independent things are lining up at the same time, and one of them is a calendar event that arrives tomorrow. When the seasonal window, fund positioning, and the technical picture all point the same direction at once, that is worth understanding — whether you're bullish or bearish.

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Corn Squares Up Ahead of USDA Report Day

Corn futures were busy squaring up ahead of the Friday USDA report, closing Thursday with gains of 5 to 7 cents across the board. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was up 6 cents at $4.87.  The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production at 1.099 million barrels per day in the week of 9/4, down 11,000 bpd from the week prior. Stocks saw a 152,000 barrel increase to 25.187 million barrels, which is 10.29% above the same week last year.  USDA will release Export Sales data on Friday, with traders looking for net cancellations of 600,000 MT to net sales of 50,000 on old crop corn sales in the last few days of the marketing year. Sales for new crop in the week ending on September 3 are seen at 1-1.9 MMT.  A Bloomberg survey of traders shows expectations for USDA to cut yield on Friday by an average of 2.6 bpa, to an average of 178.1 bpa. Production is seen dropping 236 mbu from August to 15.777 bbu. Ending stocks for old crop are seen at down just 7 mbu to 1.938 bbu, with new crop expected to be down 142 mbu lower to 1.511 mbu.  Sep 26 Corn  closed at $5.14, up 6 1/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $4.87, up 6 cents, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $5.33 3/4, up 6 cents, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $5.49 1/4, up 6 cents,

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Wheat Joins in on the Grain Rally

The wheat complex rallied across the three exchanges on Thursday. Chicago SRW contracts posted gains of 5 ¾ to 12 ½ cents across the board. KC HRW futures saw higher trade of 10 ¼ to 12 ¾ cents at the close. MPLS spring wheat saw contracts close 12 ½ to 15 ¾ cents in the green. USDA will likely leave the US production estimates alone in this month’s WASDE, as they wait for the Small Grains Summary on September 30. They will have a chance to update the rest of the balance sheet, with traders looking for few changes, as a Bloomberg survey shows an average guess of 718 mbu, just 1 mbu above August.  On the world side, stocks are seen down 0.3 MMT to 273 MMT.  Export Sales data is delayed to Friday due to the Monday holiday. Traders surveyed by Reuters are looking for between 250,000 and 500,000 MT in the week ending on September 3. Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.23 1/4, up 12 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.41 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.04 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.18 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.43 3/4, up 15 3/4 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.63 1/2, up 14 1/2 cents,

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Soybeans Break to New Highs

Soybeans were in rally mode on Thursday, with contracts 13 to 22 cents higher across most contracts. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 22 1/2 cents at $12.74 ½. Soymeal futures saw gains of $2.30 to $5.50, as Soy Oil rallied 102 to 135 points.  USDA reported private export sale announcements of 272,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2026/27 and 206,500 MT of 2026/27 beans to unknown destinations this morning. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Friday morning, with analysts surveyed by Reuters looking for no sales to net cancellations of 500,000 MT for 2025/26 soybeans. New crop sales are seen in a range of 1 to 2.6 MMT in the week of September 3. Soybean meal sales are expected to be in a range of 150,000 to 950,000 MT, with 0 to 12,000 MT  The USDA will update their data on Friday, with traders surveyed by Bloomberg looking for yield to be trimmed by 0.3 bpa to 52.4 bpa on average. Production is estimated to be down 27 mbu to 4.492 bbu. Old crop stocks are seen dropping 5 mbu to 320 mbu, as new crop US carryout is expected to be down 29 mbu to 291 mbu. Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $13.18 1/4, up 23 cents, Nearby Cash  was $12.74 1/2, up 22 1/2 cents, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $13.32 1/4, up 22 3/4 cents, Jan 27 Soybeans  closed at $13.47 1/4, up 22 cents,

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Markets

September 11, 2026

Cattle Post Strength

Live cattle futures posted gains of 12 cents to $1.97 across the board. The Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange showed no sales on the 952 head offered, with $220 live bids. Feeder cattle futures closed Thursday with gains of $1.25 to $2.87 on the session. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $1.53 on September 9 to $328.96.  Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were down in the Thursday afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel widening to $26.31. Choice boxes were down $2.40 at $378.37, with Select 28 cents lower to $352.06. USDA estimated the Thursday Federally inspected cattle slaughter at 109,000 head, with the weekly total at 329,000 head. That is well shy of last week’s total due to the Monday holiday. Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $217.825, up $1.975, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $219.600, up $1.125, Feb 27 Live Cattle  closed at $221.150, up $0.825, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $332.575, up $2.875, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $327.550, up $1.725, Nov 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $322.775, up $1.425,

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Trade of The Day – XAU/USD

Facts: GOLD price bounced off the resistance at 4426 Main trend from the end of August remains downward Recommendation: Trade: Short position on GOLD at market price Target: 4316, 4288 Stop: 4450 Opinion: The gold market has been trading in a downward move recently. Looking at the technical situation, one can see that the precious metal bounced off the key resistance at $4426. This resistance is a result of previous price reactions, as well as the upper limit of 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below $4426, one should expect the price to continue to fall. In addition the price sits below the 100-period moving average from H1 interval. We recommend going short GOLD at market price with two targets: 4316 and 4288. We recommend placing a stop loss order at 4450. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 10, 2026

The Unbelieved Bull Market: Why Valuations May Be Among the Most Attractive in Years

Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are trading very close to their all-time highs and have recorded double-digit gains since the start of the year, fundamental analysis points to an unusual discrepancy. Contrary to the intuitive perception of an ‘expensive market’, according to selected financial metrics, US share valuations are currently at multi-year lows. This phenomenon is well illustrated by a comparison of four key market indicators, two of which I have included in the post below. When analysing the current cycle as a whole, there is a lack of the widespread euphoria characteristic of speculative bubbles. Currently, only 27 companies in the S&P 500 index are trading at a forward P/E ratio exceeding 40x. This figure is similar to the levels observed during the market panic of 2020 and at the trough of the 2022 bear market. This suggests that investors are approaching the highest-valued companies with great caution. The main driving force behind the current situation is the phenomenon whereby solid financial results have outpaced share prices. To illustrate this, it is worth analysing two interesting charts: 1. The PEG ratio for the S&P 500 is at multi-year lows The PEG (Price/Earnings-to-Growth) ratio, which adjusts the traditional P/E ratio for the expected rate of earnings growth, stands at 0.9x for the broader market. Historically speaking, readings below 1.0x indicate that future earnings per share (EPS) growth is relatively undervalued relative to market prices. The current rally in the indices is therefore largely a result of a sharp improvement in the profitability of US businesses, which valuations, in relative terms, are simply failing to keep pace with. 2. Compression of indicators on the Nasdaq 100 index A similar structural shift is taking place in the technology sector. The second chart shows the forward P/E ratio for the Nasdaq 100 index. Despite the index itself having risen sharply, the multiple has compressed significantly, falling to around 23x . This figure has broken below the 126-day moving average, moving towards the lower bounds of the standard deviation. This indicates that the net profits of key technology companies are growing faster than their market capitalisation. Furthermore, the Nasdaq’s deviation from its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) has normalised (to around 7.6 per cent), which removes the risk of extreme short-term overheating from the market. Conclusions and risks From an analytical perspective, the current bull market differs from the episodes seen in 1999 or 2021, as it is underpinned by strong earnings fundamentals. In terms of valuation ratios, the market is currently pricing in earnings growth at its lowest level for years. It must, however, be categorically emphasised that ratios and multipliers are merely theoretical valuation models, and not a guarantee of future rates of return. They represent historical and analytical forecasts which, under the influence of a changing macroeconomic environment, may be subject to drastic revision. Financial markets, by their very nature, remain unpredictable, and ‘cheap’ fundamental valuations offer no protection against a potential correction or a shift in market sentiment. One must always take into account the risk of unexpected events that could dramatically change the landscape.

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Forex Trading

September 10, 2026

EUR/USD Price Consolidates around 1.1640 in countdown to ECB’s policy decision

The Euro remains sideways at around 1.1640 against the US Dollar ahead of the ECB’s interest rate announcement. The ECB is widely expected to tighten its monetary policy. Investors also await the US PPI data for August. The Euro (EUR) trades in a tight range at around 1.1640 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT. In the policy meeting, the ECB is widely anticipated to hike its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%. Firm ECB interest rate hike expectations underscore the monetary policy statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference as key triggers for the euro’s next move. Analysts at Danske Bank expect the ECB to deliver another modest tightening step at its upcoming meeting, noting that “in the euro area, the ECB will announce its deposit rate” and that “we expect the ECB to raise policy rates by 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, in line with consensus and market pricing.” They anticipate that President Lagarde will “retain full optionality over the future rate path and provide no firm guidance,” stressing that they “do not expect Lagarde to rock the boat materially, but keeping all options open, which should limit the market reaction in our view.” On the US Dollar front, investors await the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline PPI is expected to come in higher at 5.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 4.7% in July. The core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – rose by 4.6% YoY, stronger than the previous reading of 4.2%. EUR/USD Technical Analysis In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1637. The pair maintains a near-term bullish bias as price holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1609, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 58 keeps a positive tilt without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that buyers still have some room to extend the advance while the short-term trend stays constructive. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 1.1609, and a daily close below this level would ease the current bullish pressure and open the door to a deeper corrective pullback. As long as EUR/USD defends this moving average on closing bases, the broader technical structure favors further consolidation with an upside bias, with any dips likely to attract fresh buying interest rather than signaling a decisive trend reversal.

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Banks

September 10, 2026

Turkish Lira: Easing path and carry appeal – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to keep its policy rate at 37% for now, after normalising liquidity and lowering the effective funding rate. Weaker 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and gradual disinflation should allow two 100bp cuts to 35% in Q4, with markets already pricing a dovish path into year-end. ING sees continued disinflation driving further repricing and maintains forecasts of USD/TRY at 52 by year-end and 63 by end‑2027. CBRT on hold before gradual cuts "We expect the CBRT to keep rates unchanged at 37% today. It is too early to resume easing after the bank restarted weekly repo auctions and brought the effective funding rate down from 40% to the policy rate." "Still, weaker-than-expected 2Q GDP and a continued gradual decline in inflation should allow two 100bp cuts to 35% in Q4." "As liquidity conditions have normalised, market pricing has turned more dovish and moved closer to our year-end forecast. The CBRT rate is now priced at 34.50% by year-end." "However, markets remain sceptical about the scope for easing next year, pricing only around 100bp of cuts. Continued disinflation could drive further dovish repricing in this part of the curve." "The FX outlook is broadly unchanged. Long TRY positioning has already returned to pre-US-Iran conflict levels, despite the CBRT’s dovish August stance and the prospect of renewed easing. At the same time, the continued recovery in central bank FX reserves should support investor demand for the TRY carry trade. We forecast USD/TRY at 52 by year-end and 63 by the end of next year."

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Banks

September 10, 2026

Swiss Franc: Range trading with limited momentum against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a range-trading view on USD/CHF around 0.8100, after the pair held between 0.8065 and 0.8109 and closed near 0.8099. They now expect a slightly narrower 0.8060–0.8135 band to contain moves in the coming weeks. On a 1–3 month horizon, they see scope for further rebound but doubt a retest of the July peak at 0.8206. Swiss Franc pair seen confined in band "24-HOUR VIEW: Following Tuesday’s price action, we highlighted yesterday that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum, and the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.8075 and 0.8115.” USD then traded within a lower range of 0.8065/0.8109 before closing little changed at 0.8099 (+0.06%). We are unable to derive much from the price action. Today, USD could trade between 0.8075 and 0.8115." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from Monday (07 Sep, spot at 0.8100), we highlighted that, for the time being, we expect USD to trade in a range between 0.8055 and 0.8155. We continue to expect range-trading, but a narrower range of 0.8060/0.8135 is likely enough to contain the price movements in USD for now."

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Banks

September 10, 2026

Euro: Difficult path for gains against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that markets fully price today’s ECB rate hike and see around 85 basis points of additional tightening by mid-2027, heavily driven by Oil dynamics. He argues this leaves little room for the ECB to meet expectations, making a clearly hawkish surprise necessary for Euro strength, while any disappointment could weigh on EUR/USD. High expectations constrain euro upside "There is little doubt that the ECB will announce its second interest rate rise of the year today. This outcome is priced in at 100%, and almost all of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg (including ours) are expecting it. The actual interest rate decision is thus likely to be of virtually no significance for the euro." "The recent rise in oil prices has led to expectations of more than two further interest rate rises by the middle of next year (with a total increase of 85 basis points priced in), with an additional 25 basis points being priced in over the last week alone. As we have often pointed out, expectations of ECB interest rate rises depend heavily on the oil price. But these high expectations are making it increasingly unlikely that the ECB will be able to meet them." "Even if the ECB and its president, Christine Lagarde, were intent on delivering so many interest rate rises (which would already be ambitious), officials would certainly not want to commit to this today. Instead, they are likely to wait and see how the situation in the Middle East develops and what further price pressures lie ahead. In short, achieving a positive outcome for the euro is likely to be very difficult." "The risks are thus rather asymmetrically distributed today: for a stronger euro, the ECB would have to adopt a very hawkish stance, whereas for a weaker euro, it would only need to disappoint the market's advanced expectations."

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Banks

September 10, 2026

European Central Bank: Higher energy lifts rate hike expectations – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank reports that rising Oil and natural gas prices are pushing European yields to multi‑year highs and prompting markets to price a more hawkish European Central Bank path. The bank’s European economists expect small upward revisions to GDP for 2026‑2027 and higher headline inflation for 2027‑2028, while the ECB is likely to maintain a data‑dependent stance without formal forward guidance. Markets price more ECB tightening "Meanwhile in Europe, investors also priced in a more hawkish path for the ECB, with an additional +9.0bps of hikes priced in by the June 2027 meeting, meaning that 86bps of further hikes are now priced by then." "Looking forward, European rates will stay in the spotlight today, as we have the ECB’s latest policy decision at 13:15 London time." "For the decision, they’re widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike today, taking their deposit rate up to 2.5%." "Our European economists think that there’ll be small upward revisions to the GDP projections for 2026 and 2027, along with higher headline inflation for 2027 and 2028." "Otherwise, their view is that the ECB won’t give formal guidance today, and will instead repeat the “data dependent, meeting by meeting, no precommitment” mantra."

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Banks

September 10, 2026

Japanese Yen: Structural support from regional flows – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Japanese Yen (JPY) strength is reshaping APAC (Asia-Pacific) FX dynamics by easing prior effective exchange rate pressures and allowing more nominal appreciation in regional currencies. The report stays structurally constructive on JPY as long as current-account support holds, but cautions that a renewed Oil shock would reverse gains and force further reserve-asset liquidation across Asia. Stronger Yen reshapes Asia FX dynamics "JPY’s importance in regional FX trade-weighted baskets is often overlooked outside of USD/JPY." "While the U.S. is clearly fixated on USD/JPY, JPY is a major trading partner and competitor with economies in the region." "A weak JPY was already pushing up the real- and nominal effective exchange rates of these currencies, which allowed little scope for appreciation elsewhere." "JPY’s move and U.S. tolerance for clear dollar weakness has created space for the rest of the region to appreciate their own currencies in nominal terms: a stronger JPY offsets any gains on the dollar leg, and strong current U.S. inflation also prevents excessive dollar weakness in real terms." "Stay structurally constructive on JPY, KRW and CNY while current-account support holds, but monitor energy prices closely: a renewed oil shock would weaken regional FX and raise the risk of further reserve-asset liquidation."

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Iron Ore Slips on Weakening China Demand

Iron ore futures slipped toward CNY 730 per ton, pulling back from six-week highs amid rising concerns over demand in top consumer China as steel margins continued to deteriorate. Industry data showed that only around 30% of steelmakers were profitable as of September 4, down from 32.5% a week earlier and 61% during the same period last year. Another report indicated that China’s blast furnace operating rate fell to 89.08%, down 0.48 percentage point week-on-week, while average daily pig iron output declined by 5,200 mt to 2.4028 million mt. China’s state-owned iron ore importer, China Mineral Resources Group, has also advised several steelmakers to avoid purchasing Rio Tinto Group’s key Pilbara Blend ore. Meanwhile, South Korean logistics and shipping company HMM signed a long-term shipping contract with Brazilian miner Vale worth around US$3.5 billion to transport iron ore starting in 2030.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Steel Pressured by Declining Profit Margins

Steel rebar futures traded around CNY 3,105 per ton, hovering close to two-week lows as profitability across China’s steel industry continued to deteriorate. Industry data showed that only around 30% of steelmakers were profitable as of September 4, down from 32.5% a week earlier and 61% during the same period last year. Meanwhile, China’s blast furnace utilization rate declined 0.48 percentage point week-on-week to 89.08%, while average daily pig iron production fell by 5,200 mt to 2.4028 million mt. Despite the weak fundamentals, investors expect steel consumption to improve on seasonal demand amid the peak construction period in September. In other news, China Mineral Resources Group, the country’s state-owned iron ore importer, has reportedly instructed several steel mills to avoid purchasing Rio Tinto Group’s Pilbara Blend ore.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Nickel Extends Gains

Nickel traded around $16,900 per tonne, extending gains from the previous session and tracking broader strength across industrial metals. Copper prices remained near fresh record highs, reinforcing continued strength across the industrial metals sector. Battery-sector demand also showed signs of improvement, with recycled nickel sulphate production rising nearly 6% month-on-month in August, driven by stronger ternary cathode precursor demand and a relatively high share of high-nickel products. Meanwhile, elevated nickel inventories and subdued stainless steel demand continued to cap gains. Rising rate-hike expectations also weighed on dollar-priced commodities.

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Forex Trading

September 10, 2026

Chart of The Day – USD/JPY under the influence of Bessent and the BoJ

The yen has recently been one of the strongest currencies in the world, and this market has a new player who openly says he is playing with "loaded" cards. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, during a speech at a Texas university, challenged traders by saying “I am the house now". This means that such a player always wins. He added that he has asymmetric information, i.e., knowledge of what Japanese policymakers and the Bank of Japan are planning, which allows him to appropriately steer the situation in the currency market. Investors can bet against him but, as he suggested, they have no chance against him. Even with a monthly change, nearly 4% is a lot for the currency market. Source: XTB Macro and Geopolitics: An unusual alliance between Washington and Tokyo What we are observing is quite a phenomenon, even though we have already seen similar movements in the yen in 2024. Usually, it is Japan that seeks US approval to support its own currency. This time, Washington itself joined in a joint intervention, selling European assets from its foreign exchange reserves to buy yen. We have observed verbal interventions many times since, and last week's first clear wave of yen strengthening from the 160 level just before the start of the US session may suggest another move by the US Treasury. Bessent's motivation is purely American. He argues that an excessively weak and unstable yen could force Japan, the largest foreign creditor of the US, to sell US Treasury bonds to fund the intervention. This, in turn, pushes up yields and borrowing costs for American households. In other words, defending the yen has become an element of defending the US debt market. The second factor behind the move is the Bank of Japan itself. Rhetoric from BoJ members has clearly hardened. Hajime Takata speaks openly about a “regime change" in 2026, driven by a return of inflation and wage pressure. The market is aggressively pricing in a rate hike at the September 17–18 meeting. The USDJPY exchange rate almost touched the 164 level at the end of July, which was close to Goldman Sachs' target and was the weakest level for the yen in 40 years. This rate has now plummeted to around the 153 level, and Bessent himself suggested a move down to 150. However, this is where the main risk of the whole puzzle lies. If the bank raises rates on September 18 but without hawkish forward guidance, the market will get a textbook “sell the fact”. Positioning: reduction of positions just before a strong move COT data shows why the move is so violent. By July, speculators had built a very large short position on the yen – about 265,000 sell contracts, with a net position reaching about –170k, i.e., below the lower band of extremes. This structure began to crumble as the number of shorts was significantly reduced in recent weeks, although just before the start of the pullback at the beginning of September, we observed a slight return of sellers. Certainly, the latest CFTC data should show a return to the reduction of shorts and an increase in longs. Key takeaway: perhaps 60% of the extreme has been squeezed out, but the market is still net short on the yen. For comparison, during a similar move related to the reduction of the carry trade in 2024, the net position did not stop halfway but shifted clearly into positive territory. The ammunition for further yen strengthening still exists. Technical analysis On the D1 interval, the picture has changed qualitatively: The uptrend line drawn from the lows of April 2025 has been broken – the first violation of this structure in a year and a half. Today, it runs in the vicinity of 158–159. The price is between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the entire 139 - 163.5 impulse. Below, the 61.8% level awaits at key support at 150, although the range of the correction from July 2024 indicates a potentially larger move. The 158.0–159.0 zone is now key resistance – the 23.6% retracement, the spring-summer consolidation, the broken trend line, and the annual average (158.28) all converge there. A lasting return above this would invalidate the bearish scenario. The analogy with July–August 2024 is very clear: the same mechanism, similar dynamics. Back then, the move amounted to –13% in five weeks. The current one is –6%, i.e., roughly halfway there. Statistics also look interesting. The Z-score relative to the annual average reached –2.0 – this is the first such extreme since around 2020 and is historically a zone generating rebounds. However, readings for longer horizons are neutral: the two-year average is 153.5 (i.e., exactly the current price, Z-score +0.1), and the five-year average of 148.65 lies below the market. The conclusion is twofold, and it is what defines USDJPY today: tactically, the move is already oversold, but strategically, the weak yen trend has not yet been broken. The price has returned only to the two-year average. If "regime change" in Japan is real, the room for USDJPY declines is just opening up. However, this is largely a move from the BoJ and the tone from the Fed. The ideal scenario would be an indecisive Warsh next Wednesday and a very concrete Ueda.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Economic Calendar – ECB decision and hawkish Bank of Japan in focus

Today's session on the financial markets will be dominated by the European Central Bank's interest rate decision (14:15) and the subsequent press conference (14:45). Consensus assumes a 25 basis point hike in the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the deposit rate to 2.5%. Another key point of the day will be afternoon US publications (14:30) regarding producer inflation (PPI) and weekly jobless claims, which will shape expectations ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Overnight, investor attention focused on hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan, which translated into a strengthening yen. The geopolitical situation remains tense following reports of damage to US military aircraft in Jordan and Ukrainian attacks on a Russian Caspian Sea port. Key publications from the Asian session United Kingdom: RICS House Price Balance for August showed a reading of -28% against a consensus of -30% (previously -29%). The decline in housing market prices turned out to be slightly milder than expected. Australia: MI Inflation Expectations came in at 4.9%, remaining unchanged from the previous month and suggesting price pressures remain anchored at an elevated level. Japan: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Board Member Masu signaled the need to quickly raise interest rates to a neutral level and exit negative real rate territory, triggering a surge in the yen. President Trump during his speech promised a $5,000 voucher payout for every American if Republicans win the midterms. Earlier, he also indicated that he has no intention to negotiate with Iran, but does not rule out the possibility and wants to end the war after the midterms. Macroeconomic calendar 08:00 Germany - Final CPI MoM. Consensus: 0.2%. Previous reading: 0.2%. 10:00 Italy - Industrial Production MoM. Consensus: 0.3%. Previous reading: -1.0%. 14:15 Eurozone - Interest Rate Decision (main refinancing rate). Consensus: 2.65%. Previous reading: 2.40%. 14:15 Eurozone - Monetary Policy Statement. 14:30 US - Core PPI MoM. Consensus: 0.3%. Previous reading: 0.2%. 14:30 US - PPI MoM. Consensus: 0.4%. Previous reading: 0.0%. 14:30 US - Jobless Claims. Consensus: 205k. Previous reading: 206k. 14:45 Eurozone - ECB Press Conference. 15:00 Poland - Post-MPC decision press conference featuring Prof. Glapiński. 16:00 US - Existing Home Sales. Consensus: 3.98M. Previous reading: 4.06M. 16:00 US - Final Wholesale Inventories MoM. Consensus: 1.2%. Previous reading: 1.3%. 16:30 US - Natural Gas Storage Change. Consensus: 35 billion cubic feet (bcf). Previous reading: 30 billion cubic feet (bcf). 18:00 US - Crude Oil Inventories Change. Consensus: -1.3M barrels. Previous reading: -4.5M barrels. 19:01 US - 30-Year Bond Auction. Previous reading: 5.22|2.4. Corporate earnings Oracle - after market close Markets to watch EURUSD - The currency pair will come under heavy volatility pressure due to a concentration of key events: the ECB decision (14:15), press conference (14:45), and US PPI inflation readings (14:30). USDJPY - The hawkish tone of Masu from the BOJ regarding necessary rate hikes supports the Japanese currency. An additional factor is the record yield spread (316.7 bps) between 10-year Chinese and US bonds. Natural Gas (NATGAS) - The release of the weekly US gas storage report at 16:30 (expected increase of 35 billion cubic feet) will determine the price direction for this instrument in the second half of the day. EURUSD returns to an upward trend, but position behavior shows that significant selling pressure remains in the market. EURUSD will need a very hawkish ECB and ambiguous signals from the US ahead of next week's Fed decision. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Gold holds steady above $4,400 as traders seem hesitant ahead of US inflation data

Gold turns positive for the second straight day, though bulls seem hesitant ahead of US inflation data. The USD remains depressed amid the BoJ-inspired JPY rally, lending some support to the bullion. Inflation risks fuel hawkish central bank expectations and cap the upside for the XAU/USD pair. Gold (XAU/USD) hovers around the $4,400 mark through the Asian session on Thursday as traders seem hesitant to place directional bets ahead of US inflation figures. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be published later this Thursday, while the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Friday. The key data will provide more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path, which, in turn, should influence US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding bullion. USD path hinges on US CPI as Fed decision looms Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman stress that Friday’s US August CPI release is “the main market driver that will decide the Fed’s September 16 rate decision.” They argue that “a hot CPI print would all but seal a September hike and underpin a firmer USD,” whereas “a cooler reading would strengthen the case for a hold and leave USD vulnerable to a dovish Fed repricing.” In the meantime, markets are pricing in around a 60% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at its upcoming policy meeting on September 15-16. The bets were lifted by the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report last Friday. Moreover, inflation risks stemming from persistently higher energy prices underpin prospects for immediate Fed tightening. In fact, crude oil prices touched a fresh three-month high earlier today as a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play. In the latest developments, Iran attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US announced it had sunk five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island. This adds to concerns about a prolonged disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East and continues to support the black liquid, which further backs the case for a more hawkish stance from other major central banks. In fact, traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) later today and by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at its September 17–18 meeting. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also weighing a potential rate increase later this month. Meanwhile, US bond yields remain elevated amid the disappointment from the US Treasury's announcement that it would buy back up to $6 billion in 10-year to 20-year maturities, up from $2 billion previously. Media reports, however, suggested expectations had been for at least $10 billion. However, a hawkish BoJ-inspired rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps USD bulls on the back foot, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for the Gold price. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis On the 4-hour chart, the precious metal holds above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,362 but remains below the 100-period SMA at about $4,491, leaving the broader tone neutral to slightly capped. Moreover, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $4,427 sits just overhead as immediate resistance. The positive move still appears tentative beneath this nearby ceiling despite a modestly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 51. Sustained strength above the said barrier, however, should pave the way for additional gains to the 100-period SMA near $4,491, with the 23.6% retracement up at $4,530 acting as a higher hurdle if buyers gain traction. On the downside, the $4,362 region, where the 200-period SMA aligns above the 50% retracement near $4,344, offers initial support, with deeper cushions at the 61.8% level around $4,260 and the 78.6% retracement near $4,141 if selling pressure resumes.

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Forex Trading

September 10, 2026

United States Dollar Index weakens ahead of critical US inflation reports

US PPI and CPI reports will dictate Federal Reserve monetary policy and interest rate expectations. Strong US jobs data has traders pricing in over a 60% chance of a rate hike. Reuters poll indicates that the Fed will hold interest rates steady through year-end, defying market hike expectations. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the fourth consecutive day and trading around 98.70 during Asian hours on Thursday. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming US Producer Price Index data due to be released on Thursday and Consumer Price Index data on Friday, as these inflation reports could provide vital hints regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook ahead of its meeting next week. Following recent stronger US jobs data, traders have increased their bets on an interest rate hike, with the CME FedWatch Tool pricing in over 60% odds for a rate increase at the central bank's upcoming policy meeting. However, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate steady at its September 15-16 meeting and for the rest of this year, once again defying market expectations for a series of hikes. Economic data have mostly come in strong in recent weeks, and several economists noted that the August Consumer Price Index data will be crucial for solidifying their outlook on future interest rates. Bond outflows deepen as higher yields sap demand Strategists at BNY observe that investor risk appetite has cooled, noting that "iFlow Mood narrowed at a faster pace as investors reduced core sovereign bond exposure more aggressively than global equities." They add that "higher global yields are increasingly weighing on bond flows," underscoring how rising rate pressures are prompting a more pronounced pullback from core sovereign debt relative to stock markets. Technical Analysis: DXY holds below moving averages In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 98.70, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA remains beneath the longer EMA, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (14) at about 37 stays in bearish territory, suggesting ongoing downside pressure despite some stabilization in the FXS Fed Sentiment Index around 125.72. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the nine-day EMA, with a more significant cap at the 50-day EMA, which together outline the band the index must reclaim to alleviate the current bearish bias. In the absence of identifiable technical supports from the provided dataset, traders may look to recent lows and psychological round numbers below 98.75 for potential demand zones, while any recovery attempts are likely to struggle as long as price trades under the clustered EMAs.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

XAG/USD trades firmly near $67.60 ahead of US PPI, CPI data

Silver price rises to near $67.60 as the US Dollar faces selling pressure. The US PPI report will likely show faster growth in inflation at the producer level. Investors will pay close attention to the US CPI data scheduled for Friday. Silver price (XAG/USD) trades higher at around $67.60 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The white metal reflects strength as the US Dollar is under pressure ahead of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 98.75. The USD Index is close to its two-week low of 98.60 posted on Wednesday. A lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors. Investors will closely track the US producer inflation data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The US PPI report is expected to show that headline inflation at the factory level accelerated to 5.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 4.7% in July. The core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is also expected to arrive higher at 4.6% YoY against the previous reading of 4.2%. Signs of price pressures accelerating at the producer level would prompt expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes in the near term, a scenario that diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver. This week, the major trigger for the Silver price and the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be released on Friday. Silver Technical Analysis In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $67.60. The near-term bias appears bullish as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly $66.02, suggesting the recent advance remains supported by the short-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 keeps a positive yet not overbought tone, hinting that upside momentum is intact but not stretched. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at $66.02, reinforcing a deeper demand zone if a pullback develops. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 is the critical hurdle for the Silver price.

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Energies

September 10, 2026

European TTF gas futures hit highest level since 2022 as inventories remain low ahead of winter

European gas prices are rising, with the front-month TTF contract climbing above €79/MWh on Wednesday morning to its highest level since December 2022. The US–Iran war is restricting LNG availability as Europe prepares for winter with unusually low inventories. At the same time, high near-term delivery prices are making storage less profitable and hampering efforts to rebuild reserves at attractive prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) argues that supply security requires not only adequately filled storage facilities, but also larger strategic reserves, flexible contracts and cooperation between countries. Buying activity could pick up. The Hormuz blockade and damage to Qatari facilities constrain supply Since the beginning of the year, front-month TTF futures have traded between approximately €26.50 and €79/MWh. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have increased the risk premium, as threats to LNG supplies directly affect the cost of securing gas for European buyers. Before the conflict, around 20% of global LNG trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Its effective closure has blocked these shipments for several months, reducing the volume of gas available on the global market. Strikes in March severely damaged two production units at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, taking around 17 billion cubic meters of annual capacity offline. According to IEEFA, this represents approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, while the IEA estimates that repairs will take three to five years. The supply problem therefore extends beyond simply restoring shipping through Hormuz. Since the 2022–2023 energy crisis, Europe has added more than 50 billion cubic meters of annual LNG import capacity, replacing a substantial share of Russian pipeline gas with seaborne supplies. More terminals do not, however, guarantee gas availability: European buyers still need to secure cargoes in a competitive global market. Why are high prices making storage harder to refill? Gas purchased in summer is usually cheaper than winter deliveries, allowing companies to profit from storing it and selling it later. However, the current crisis has pushed up near-term prices, while the market expects supply conditions to improve later in the year. This price structure weakens the financial incentive to refill storage in some European countries. Low inventories do not automatically mean that Europe will run out of gas. EU consumption remains around 15–20% below its 2021 level, allowing the economy to function with smaller reserves . However, this smaller safety buffer comes at the cost of greater reliance on ongoing LNG deliveries during winter. The EU target calls for storage facilities to be 90% full by November 1, although deviations are permitted under unfavorable market conditions. The IEA advocates a more flexible application of these requirements, supported by coordinated purchasing and emergency arrangements. Poland currently faces the least pressure on this front , with storage levels very high at around 96.5% as of September 8. Germany and the Netherlands face difficulties, while the EU average of 67% is historically low. Source: AGSI Gas above €100/MWh? Goldman Sachs outlines a risk scenario Goldman Sachs estimates that, if Middle Eastern exports recover slowly, attracting enough LNG cargoes to Europe may require the December TTF contract to rise above €100/MWh. This is not the bank’s base case, which assumed €50/MWh, but a scenario dependent on persistent supply constraints. Higher energy costs are adding to inflationary pressure. Eurozone inflation reached 3.3% in August, driven primarily by rising energy prices, even as underlying price pressures eased. Ahead of tomorrow’s ECB decision, investors are almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate increase. Such a move would raise the deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5%; however, this remains a market expectation rather than an announced decision, which is still around 24 hours away. Concerns that inflation and interest rates will remain elevated for longer are fueling a sell-off in European government bonds. Rising yields mean higher borrowing costs for governments as they refinance maturing debt. IEA: strategic reserves should complement commercial inventories In its “Gas Reserve Mechanisms and Flexibility Options” report, published today, the IEA proposes greater use of gas held outside the commercial market and released only in an emergency. Such reserves would provide an additional safeguard, rather than leaving countries reliant solely on mandatory storage targets and competition for LNG supplies. Poland, Italy and Spain are among the countries that already hold national strategic gas reserves. According to IEA estimates, around 12 billion cubic meters of gas was held under such arrangements across the EU in 2025, equivalent to roughly 3.5% of annual consumption and 12% of working gas storage capacity. The agency encourages governments to expand these mechanisms and consider coordinating them at the EU or international level. Its recommendations align with the European Commission’s AccelerateEU strategy, which includes coordinated purchasing, flexible inventory management, demand reduction and measures to protect consumers from high energy costs. Reserves abroad, flexible supplies and Ukraine’s potential Countries could finance emergency gas stocks held abroad or jointly secure the right to purchase additional LNG cargoes in the event of shortages. More flexible contracts and supply swaps would make it easier to direct gas to where it is needed most. The IEA also points to the possibility of storing 10–15 billion cubic meters of gas in Ukraine. However, this would require an end to the war with Russia, which currently appears unlikely, as well as assurances that the facilities are safe. It is therefore not an option for the coming winter. Other options under consideration include using older LNG vessels as temporary storage and releasing some of the gas normally retained in underground storage facilities. The agency stresses that these solutions require further study. Expanding reserves also requires agreement on who owns the gas, who pays to hold it and under what circumstances it can be released. The IEA notes, however, that while building emergency stocks carries a cost, being unprepared for a crisis could prove far more expensive. TTF gas futures chart (D1 timeframe) Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Wheat Retreat’s

The wheat complex was in retreat mode, with contracts lower across the three exchanges. Chicago SRW contracts closed in on the lows at the final bell, down 17 to 19 cents. KC HRW futures fell back 12 to 15 ½ cents across most contracts. MPLS spring wheat was down 2 to 6 cents on the day. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed 86% of the US spring wheat crop harvested by Sunday, 3% ahead of the normal pace. The winter wheat crop was lagging the 5 year average for planting pace, by 3 percentage points at 2% complete. USDA will leave the US production estimates alone in this month’s WASDE, as they wait for the Small Grains Summary on September 30. They will have a chance to update the rest of the balance sheet, with traders looking for few changes, as a Bloomberg survey shows an average guess of 718 mbu, just 1 mbu above August.  South Korean importers purchased 100,000 MT of wheat from the US (50,000 MT) and Canada. Sovecon estimates the Russian wheat export total for 2026/27 at 41.4 MMT, a 3.2 MMT drop from last month’s number. Canadian wheat stocks as of July 31 were tallied at 6.649 MMT, according to Stats Canada, which was up 56.8% from last year. Wheat excluding durum was at 5.547 MMT, up 48.8% from last year. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimates the Argentina wheat crop at 21 MMT for 2026/27, up 0.5 MMT from the previous estimate. Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.11 1/4, down 19 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.28 3/4, down 18 1/4 cents, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.91 3/4, down 13 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.06 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.27, down 2 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.48, down 6 cents,

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Cotton Bulls Fight Back

Cotton futures posted gains of 5 to 109 points across most contracts at the close.  Crude oil was $3.64 per barrel higher on the session, with the US dollar index holding steady on the day.  Weekly Crop Progress data showed condition ratings at 34% good/excellent, down 5 percentage points on the week. The Brugler500 index was down another 6 points to 298. Ratings in Texas were down another 8 points to 252 on the Brugler500 index. The Seam reported sales on 632 bales at an average of 76.26 cents/lb in Tuesday’s sale. The Cotlook A index was again unchanged on 9/8 at 96.00. ICE certified cotton stocks unchanged on September 8, with the certified stocks level at 54,414 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by another 240 points on Thursday to 73.92 cents/lb. Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 83.73, up 109 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 87.28, up 96 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 89.65, up 94 points

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Coffee Prices Settle Higher on Tight ICE Inventories and Vietnam Weather

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed up +0.75 (+0.26%) on Wednesday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed up +14 (+0.40%). Coffee prices settled higher on Wednesday, with robusta posting a 1-week high.  Tightness in near-term supplies is bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 218,838 bags on Tuesday.  Robusta coffee has support on concern that heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-producing region, may flood farms and damage the country’s coffee crop.  On Tuesday, arabica coffee fell to a 2-month low on ramped-up coffee exports from Brazil after Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported Brazil's Aug coffee exports rose +44.6% y/y to 206,618 MMT, the most in 8 months.    Last Thursday, robusta fell to a 3-month low on signs of bigger coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.  Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported last Wednesday that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Aug) rose by +13.7% y/y to 1.33 MMT.  Above-normal rainfall in Brazil may benefit flowering for next year’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 8.9 mm of rain, or 127% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 30 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 218,838 bags on Tuesday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots last Wednesday. Late last month, arabica coffee rallied to an 8-month high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Arabica coffee also has support from last month's devastating earthquake in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  The 7.4 magnitude quake hit the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Cocoa Prices Gain After Ghana Proposes Raising Farmer Pay

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +38 (+0.64%) on Wednesday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed up +20 (+0.47%). Cocoa prices rose on Wednesday after Ghana’s cocoa industry regulator proposed raising cocoa farmers’ pay by +6% for the 2026/27 season, which sparked short covering in cocoa futures as the proposed increase could push Ghana farmers to seek higher prices for their cocoa sales. On Tuesday, cocoa prices tumbled to 2-week lows as supply concerns eased.  Last Wednesday, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving the market better prepared to manage risks than it did during the 2023/24 El Niño weather event that drove cocoa prices to record highs. Also last Wednesday, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported that the Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, up +30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier.  Larger cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast are bearish for prices after last Tuesday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 30, 2026), up +19% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,436,742 bags last Friday. Cocoa prices have recently strengthened, with NY cocoa posting an 11.25-month high last Monday and London cocoa posting an 11.25-month high last Tuesday.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices.  Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins this month.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported on August 26 that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  On August 21, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Sugar Prices Finish Sharply Higher as Crude Oil Surges

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.30 (+1.66%) on Wednesday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +15.50 (+2.99%). Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Wednesday on the +3% surge in crude price (CLV26) to a 3.25-month high.  Higher crude prices support ethanol prices and could prompt the world’s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, reducing sugar supplies. Sugar prices also have some positive carryover from Monday, when the Thai Sugar Millers Corp projected that 2026/27 Thailand sugar production could fall -17% y/y to 10 MMT. Thailand is the world’s second-largest sugar exporter.  Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past week amid speculation that India will import less sugar than initially expected.  The Indian government last week reduced the sugar dealer stock-holding limit to 200 MT from 400 MT, effective Sep 15 through Nov 20, to curb hoarding and boost domestic availability.  The action will help push more sugar stockpiles onto the market, potentially reducing India's need to import sugar.      An excessively long position by funds in NY sugar could exacerbate any price downturn.  Last Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that funds boosted their long NY sugar positions by 28,526 to a net-long 132,496 positions in the week ended September 1, the highest in three years.  Last Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 17-month high, and London sugar posted a 2-week high on the outlook for a global deficit.  Last Tuesday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT after a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  Green Pool Commodity Specialists on August 27 projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  Also, the European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said August 27 that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT. On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported Monday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 14% below normal as of September 7, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Copper Holds Near Record Highs

Copper futures traded around $6.76 per pound on Thursday, staying close to record highs as ongoing supply concerns and tariff uncertainty continued to support prices. Markets were awaiting the Trump administration’s decision on imposing new tariffs on refined metal imports, while the persistent premium for copper futures on New York’s Comex continued to create arbitrage opportunities. Traders have continued redirecting shipments toward US warehouses, contributing to sharply declining inventories at warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Major copper-producing countries in South America have also faced operational disruptions this year, weighing on production and exports. Meanwhile, supply has struggled to keep pace with rising demand from data centers, renewable energy projects and electricity grids.

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Markets

September 10, 2026

Palm Oil Dips Ahead of MPOB Data

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped more than 1% to around MYR 4,900 per tonne, extending their decline to a one-week low. Weaker edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago, along with a stronger ringgit, weighed on sentiment. Traders also turned cautious ahead of monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board later today. Meanwhile, exports remained sluggish, with cargo surveyors estimating August palm oil shipments fell between 6.5% and 14.9% from July. In India, heavy vegetable oil buying has congested major ports, delaying vessel unloading by up to 10 days as storage tanks overflow, potentially dampening near-term import demand. Still, losses were tempered by firm crude oil prices after Brent breached US$100 a barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions, boosting the appeal of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. Simultaneously, unusually dry weather across Southeast Asia fueled concerns over palm yields following fires and haze in Borneo and Sumatra.

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Energies

September 10, 2026

European Gas Hovers Near Multi-Year Highs

European natural gas prices steadied at €79/MWh on Thursday, hovering close to its highest level in more than three years, amid rising concerns over the region’s gas supply outlook. European gas inventories remain below historical norms as escalating attacks in the Middle East continue to disrupt LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route handling roughly 20% of global gas flows, mainly from Qatar. In the latest development, Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near the strait and warned it would step up strikes if Washington continued attacks on its territory, raising fears of deeper and more prolonged supply disruptions. Meanwhile, maintenance in Norway and lower Algerian flows to Italy are also limiting pipeline supplies to Europe. These supply risks come as Europe nears the end of its summer storage injection season, threatening to further intensify competition for global gas supplies during the winter.

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Japanese Yen: Supported by policy shift expectations – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened, driving USD/JPY back towards 153.00, as comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforce expectations of policy changes in Japan. The bank highlights growing market conviction that the Bank of Japan will accelerate rate hikes this month, helping the Yen rebound without further joint FX intervention. Yen gains on BoJ shift expectations "The yen has continued to strengthen overnight resulting in USD/JPY falling back towards the 153.00-level." "The stronger yen has been encouraged by bullish comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent overnight who stated that “I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do…and you can bet against me if you want”." "He pushed back against his critics who have criticized the decision to intervene alongside Japan to support the yen by stating “whenever people say, ‘Oh, well, Treasury Secretary is taking a risk’, - well, it’s my dream, I have asymmetric information”." "The comments will reinforce expectations that the Japan has agreed to change domestic policies to provide more support for the yen and back up support from joint intervention." "It already appears increasingly likely the BoJ will speed up the pace of rate hikes this month which is helping the yen to rebound without the need for further intervention."

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Polish Zloty: Policy on hold keeps PLN supported against Euro – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues expect the NBP to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, with Governor Glapiński emphasising flexibility and data dependence. Given worsening inflation and the removal of a near‑term cut, they see policy as supportive for the Zloty and expect EUR/PLN to remain biased towards the 4.30 area over the coming quarters. NBP stance underpins Zloty versus Euro "In CEE, the NBP is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% today, taking dovish rhetoric of Governor Glapiński's in its stride." "Since the remarks in July, the inflation backdrop has worsened with headline CPI accelerating to 3.4% yoy, driven largely by higher fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions. That shift has effectively taken a September rate cut off the table." "Glapiński reminded investors last week that policy should remain flexible and data dependent. MPC member Duda has already indicated rates could remain unchanged through end-2026." "Our house view is for status quo until at least 2Q27. Against this backdrop, the policy outlook remains supportive for the currency and should help to keep EUR/PLN biased towards the 4.30 handle."

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Copper: Record highs driven by tariff uncertainty – ING

ING’s commodities team notes Copper has surged to fresh records on the LME, with three‑month futures nearing $14,800/t, as traders position for potential US tariffs on refined Copper imports. They argue policy expectations have tightened availability outside the US and squeezed shorts, warning that prices could correct sharply if proposed tariffs are delayed, softened or rejected while demand remains subdued. Policy risk keeps copper elevated "Copper rose to another record on the LME yesterday, with three-month futures nearing $14,800/t. The rally continues to be driven by expectations of US tariffs on refined copper imports." "Tariff positioning has pulled large volumes of metal into the US, with COMEX inventories rising to record levels. Meanwhile, less metal is available outside the US, tightening the London market and putting pressure on short positions." "The market is waiting for President Trump’s decision on refined copper tariffs. The proposal is for a 15% duty from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. If approved, tariffs would keep drawing metal into the US." "Another exemption or delay could unwind the trade and ease tightness elsewhere." "We expect copper prices to remain elevated while tariff uncertainty persists. The rally looks increasingly policy-driven. Prices could correct sharply if tariffs are delayed or ruled out, particularly as demand remains subdued."

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Platinum Rises Toward Multi-Month Highs

Platinum futures rose above $1,860 an ounce, moving back toward multi-month highs as expectations for stronger industrial demand and constrained mine supply continued to support the market. Industrial demand is forecast to rise 9% this year, supported by a sharp recovery in platinum use in the glass industry, while mine supply remains constrained, particularly in major producer South Africa. Platinum has gained around 6% over the past month despite remaining well below its record high of $2,919 reached in January. However, the longer-term outlook has become less supportive, with the World Platinum Investment Council now expecting the global market to swing to a surplus of 265,000 ounces in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast for a 297,000-ounce deficit. The shift reflects heavy ETF outflows and weaker demand, which fell 16% year-on-year in Q2 to 1.7 million ounces. Jewelry demand plunged 32%, while auto demand fell 6%, with Chinese platinum jewelry fabrication tumbling 76%.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Aluminum Holds at 4-Week High

Aluminum futures in the UK were at $3,330 per tonne, their highest level in four weeks, supported by persistent supply tightness and shrinking inventories. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has crimped aluminum flows from the Middle East, with GCC output falling 44% year-on-year in July. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE inventories fell 3% from the previous week, underscoring tight conditions in the physical market. Meanwhile, the Alunorte plant in Brazil, the world’s largest alumina refinery outside China, temporarily cut production to 50% of capacity in August, although output was subsequently restored to full capacity following a temporary terminal access agreement with its gas supplier. Some of these supply pressures could also be partly eased by planned capacity restarts and expansion projects among several producers, as well as rising exports from China, the world’s largest producer.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Zinc Tops $4,000 Amid Supply Concerns

Zinc prices surpassed $4,000 per tonne for the first time since 2022, as the market faced significant supply pressures. Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability, while heightened tensions in the Middle East have restricted Iranian ore shipments. Major zinc mines, including Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska, have seen output decline as they work through lower-grade sections of their ore bodies, while several producers have also reported weaker production. At the same time, LME warehouse inventories remain low relative to historical levels, while physical zinc availability remains particularly tight outside China. The tightness is also evident in sharply lower smelter treatment charges, signaling a shortage of zinc concentrate for processing. However, rising zinc exports from China could provide some relief to supply conditions in other major markets.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Trade of The Day – Coffee

Facts: The EMA100 moving average crossed below the EMA200 moving average. The RSI [14] level is around ~35. The price is below the regression line from the last 24 months. Recommendation: Short position (Sell) on COFFEE at the market price. Target price (Take Profit, TP): 220 Stop Loss (SL): 347 COFFEE (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION: After the breakout from a double top pattern, the price is highly likely to be entering a new market regime, with the current target direction defined by a parallel descending channel. The downward move is strongly supported by the so-called “Death Cross” (EMA100 and EMA200). Based on the deviation from the regression line and Fibonacci retracement levels, a likely target for the price move can be set at the 161.8 extension (220). The bearish setup would be invalidated by a clear breakout from the current descending channel; therefore, the protective order should be placed at 347 USD. Another significant risk to further declines may be the RSI level, which at around 35 points already signals an oversold condition. However, as shown on the RSI chart, when the price entered a strong downtrend it tended to fall even further, toward the 25 area. The more likely scenario, however, is a temporary consolidation and RSI normalization in the 50–40 range before the decline deepens. Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels. The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels. The stop loss protective order was determined based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and is based on a Fibonacci level.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Economic calendar: Macro releases overshadowed by the Middle East conflict

Wednesday’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively light and does not include any releases that are likely to independently set the direction for global markets. We already received the latest data from China overnight, where CPI inflation accelerated to 0.8% YoY in August, while PPI rose by 3.8% YoY . Later in the day, attention may turn mainly to speeches by Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel , the weekly ADP US employment report , and the auction of 10-year US Treasury bonds. With no major macroeconomic releases on the agenda, investors will primarily focus on developments in the US–Iran conflict . Tensions have escalated again following attacks on US and Iranian vessels and shipping infrastructure, with an increasing part of the conflict now centred around oil tankers and the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the oil market remains strongly supported, with OIL trading around $99 and OIL.WTI near $95 . Further headlines regarding attacks on vessels, the security of shipping through Hormuz, or potential de-escalation may have a greater impact today on oil, equities, the US dollar, and gold than the macroeconomic calendar itself. 02:30 AM GMT – China: August CPI +0.8% YoY , PPI +3.8% YoY; consensu CPI +0.8% YoY, PPI +3.6% YoY 07:45 AM GMT – France: July industrial production; actual -0.4 MoM ; consensus +0.2% MoM 01:15 PM GMT – US: Weekly ADP employment change report 06:00 PM GMT – Eurozone: Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel 06:01 PM GMT – US: 10-year Treasury auction 09:30 PM GMT – US: Weekly API crude oil inventories report

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Banks

September 9, 2026

European Central Bank: Further hikes risk skewed to upside – Nomura

Nomura strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates this week, taking the depo rate to 2.50%, and to keep it there for the foreseeable future. They see another hike after a 2025 cut back to neutral to counter Iran war-related inflation risks, and do not foresee ECB rate cuts in coming years. ECB seen hiking and staying elevated "We expect the ECB to raise rates this week, following its June hike. We think the central bank will raise rates again after cutting to around neutral in 2025 to signal that it will counter any second-round inflation effects from the Iran war. We do not forecast further rate hikes from the ECB after September, but highlight that risks to our forecast are skewed squarely towards further hikes due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and we do not foresee any ECB rate cuts in the coming years." "Euro area GDP growth has been close to potential in recent quarters. If we exclude volatile Ireland from the GDP calculations, it has been fairly stable at around 0.3% q-o-q since the start of 2024. This rate of growth is in line with the plausible range of estimates for potential economic growth (0.27-0.33% q-o-q), which we think increases reasons to raise the ECB’s depo rate." "However, there has been a more recent shift in estimates of nominal neutral ranges by central banks with the ECB’s estimate moving up from around 1.25%-2.50% in H2 2023 to 1.75%-2.50% in 2026 (i.e. a higher lower bound and midpoint), while the Riksbank’s estimate is lower than in recent years (albeit updated infrequently) and is 1.50%-3.00%. Thus, with the ranges now sharing similar midpoints, the two central banks have naturally seen more aligned policy rates in recent years, while Sweden's lower bound – now below the ECB’s – explains the Riksbank's lower policy rate at present." "While at times their policy rates have moved closely together, the Riksbank, Norges Bank and SNB do not necessarily follow ECB policy. All of these European central banks are facing the effects of the global energy price shock due to the Iran war at present, making them more likely to raise rates. However, different pre-existing inflation backdrops, levels of rates compared to neutral, FX moves and policy rate transmission mechanisms, among other structural reasons, create different policymaker reaction functions."

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Energies

September 9, 2026

WTI Oil erases losses and returns above $92.00 as hostilities in the Gulf escalate

WTI Oil hits session highs at 92.70 on Wednesday, its highest level in the last three months. Crude prices keep rising amid fears that Iran's war will escalate into a regional war. Goldman Sachs experts affirm that shipping disruptions could push Oil prices to $120. Crude prices maintain their bullish tone on Wednesday, as the situation in the Middle East risks escalating into an all-out regional war. The US Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has retraced previous losses to hit fresh three-month highs at $92.70, with the early-June highs of $94.87 in sight. The war in Iran escalated to a new level on Tuesday as the US and Iran exchanged attacks, while the Iran-backed Houthi militias from Yemen entered the conflict, hitting oilfields in neighbouring Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have retaliated, striking targets in Yemen, in escalating dynamics that threaten to push the region into a wider conflict. Shipping strains deepen as canal disruptions and fuel concerns mount Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil traffic limited in a waterway that used to carry about 20% of the global supply before the war. Rabobank analysts underscore that “maritime nations are warning that global shipping rules are collapsing, which could take much global trade with it as some worry if there is enough bunker fuel for the ships to use.” The bank notes that rerouting is already evident, with “the Suez Canal (…) seeing more passages as tankers try to avoid Hormuz,” even as the “Panama Canal is warning of deeper transit cuts as the El Niño drought threat intensifies.” Together with still-tight energy markets, these developments underscore mounting stress across key shipping arteries and the potential for renewed cost pressures along global supply chains. Earlier this week, Dean Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, warned that Oil prices might reach $120 per barrel in an interview at Bloomberg TV, as "the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one."

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Silver Price XAG/USD approaches $67.00 as bulls await trading range breakout

Silver regains positive traction on Wednesday and climbs to the top end of the weekly range. Sustained strength beyond the 100-SMA on the H4 should pave the way for further upside. The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Silver (XAG/USD) builds on its intraday ascent and climbs back closer to the weekly high, around the $67.00 neighborhood during the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal, however, remains confined within a familiar range held over the past week or so, warranting some caution for bulls ahead of the crucial US inflation figures. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD bulls need to wait for acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently pegged just ahead of the $67.00 mark, before placing fresh bets. This will also mark a fresh breakout through the trading range and pave the way for additional near-term gains. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the mid-50s, hinting at stabilizing momentum. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a modest positive reading after a shallow dip, suggesting that the downside pressure is fading but not yet reversed, while the XAG/USD remains below the 100-SMA. On the topside, momentum beyond the $67.00 mark could extend further towards retesting the monthly swing high, around the $68.00 round figure. Some follow-through buying would ease any near-term bearish tone and reaffirm a constructive outlook. On the downside, immediate support is seen near x$65.40-$65.30 or the lower boundary of the trading range. A convincing break below would shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and expose the monthly swing low, around the $63.35-$63.30 region, and drag the XAG/USD further below the $63.00 mark, towards the 62.20 support zone. XAG/USD 4-hour chart

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Polish Zloty: Rate cuts seen off table through year-end – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% and sees the key question as whether the MPC formally drops earlier dovish language. With fuel-driven inflation pressures and a weaker Zloty, he argues that Glapinski’s prior hints at imminent cuts are obsolete and that rate reductions are unlikely before year-end, which could modestly support PLN. NBP shift from dovish to cautious stance "Poland’s National Bank (NBP) will announce its September monetary policy decision later today and hold its usual press conference tomorrow: the analyst consensus is unanimous that the base rate will stay unchanged at 3.75%. This outcome is now unsurprising. The more interesting question is no longer whether NBP will cut the rate, but whether or not the MPC will formally move away from the dovish language which Adam Glapinski had introduced at the July press conference." "Glapinski had then described himself as “decidedly dovish” and openly floated the possibility of a 25bp cut motion at the September sitting if no fresh shock were to arrive. But the shock did arrive. Middle East tensions have escalated again, oil prices have risen, and the reversal of the fuel VAT cut on 1 September has produced a sharp jump in Polish pump prices." "Reflex data showed petrol prices up by 18.3%w/w and diesel up by 14.4%w/w as of 3 September, with further increases likely. This means that fuel will give another major boost to September CPI." "Even before this latest fuel move, the inflation picture had already turned less comfortable. CPI inflation accelerated to 3.4%y/y in August (our preferred seasonally-adjusted month-on-month rate of increase has accelerated the fastest in Poland among CE3 and has breached the 2.5% target level in the past two months). Against this backdrop, Glapinski’s earlier signal about rate cuts being imminent became obsolete." "While the shift from dovish to cautious was forced rather than proactive, we reckon that rate cuts are now off the table through year-end in our view. An official signal to this effect will likely modestly support the exchange rate."

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Equities: Broad US pullback as tech limits losses – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists note a broad-based decline in US equities, with the S&P 500 down 0.58% and more than 70% of its constituents lower. Technology stocks proved relatively resilient as chipmakers recovered, while European markets were largely subdued and Asian equities struggled for traction outside South Korea. US equity futures point to a modestly firmer start. Broad US decline, with tech outperforming "In the US, the S&P 500 (-0.58%) fell back as part of a broad-based decline, with more than 70% of the index lower on the day." "The Nasdaq (-0.32%) and the Mag-7 (-0.35%) saw slightly smaller declines thanks to a recovery in chipmakers, which also sent the Philly semiconductor index (+1.30%) higher for a 4th consecutive session. " "Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.05%) slipped back again slightly, with the continent’s indices generally seeing little movement. So the FTSE 100 (-0.10%) and FTSEMIB (-0.10%) posted modest declines, whilst the CAC 40 (+0.14%) eked out a gain. Stoxx futures are around half a percent lower this morning. " "In Asia, tech continues to support the KOSPI (+1.63%) which is again outperforming regional peers. Elsewhere, Japan's Nikkei (+0.07%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.02%), China's CSI 300 (+0.10%) and ASX (-0.17%) are all struggling to gain meaningful traction." "S&P 500 futures are up +0.09% with Nasdaq 100 futures advancing +0.22%."

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Equities: Tech leadership with Astra boost – Danske Bank

Danske Bank notes European equities were broadly flat on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 unchanged and OMX Nordic slightly higher, while Asian markets rallied in thin trading as US markets were closed for Labor Day. The bank highlights strong performance in technology, particularly semi-conductors and AI-linked hardware, while rising bond yields weighed on real estate and other rate-sensitive sectors. Tech strength offsets rate headwinds "European equities were little changed on Monday, while Asian markets rallied sharply, but in thin trading as US markets were closed for Labor Day." "The Stoxx 600 finished flat and OMX Nordic gained 0.4%. Tech led performance, with semi-conductors and AI-linked hardware at the forefront, ignited by ChatGPT's launch of its new Astra model on Friday. " "Astra is designed to handle more complex reasoning tasks, which also increases the need for compute power, memory capacity and GPU intensity. Astra challenges that narrative." "The market reaction reflected this yesterday. Korean equities rallied 5% and another 2% this morning. European technology stocks also performed well, although gains elsewhere were constrained by another rise in bond yields." "Real estate and other rate-sensitive sectors lagged. US equity futures are broadly unchanged this morning."

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Oil: Risk premium builds with Persian Gulf tensions – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Oil prices are grinding higher, with ICE Brent close to $100/bbl as Middle East tensions escalate and OPEC output falls. They highlight US strikes on Iranian tankers, Iranian missile responses, and disruptions to Saudi supply, arguing that the market will likely keep a sizeable risk premium while flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover only gradually. Brent nears $100 with OPEC cuts "The oil market continues to move higher this morning as Middle East tension escalates. ICE Brent is close to breaking above $100/bbl. Given developments in the region, it seems only a matter of time before the market tests this key level." "The US carried out additional strikes on Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island, hitting 5 vessels in response to Iran attempting to strike a US Navy warship. This resulted in Iran firing ballistic missiles towards Jordan, while also warning vessels in the Persian Gulf could be targeted. Recent developments only reinforce the view that we’re still some way from a restart in talks." "In the meantime, the market is likely to continue to price in a sizeable risk premium." "Preliminary production numbers for OPEC are starting to come in. A Bloomberg survey estimates output in August fell 900k b/d month-on-month to 19.91m b/d. The decline was driven by Saudi Arabia, where output is estimated to have fallen by 1.12m b/d amid the escalation seen through August." "China’s still‑sizeable crude inventories mean lower import levels are broadly sustainable — a dynamic the market may actually need, particularly if Middle East escalation triggers renewed supply disruptions."

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Japanese Yen: Focus on strength and BoJ path – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights ongoing strength in the Japanese Yen, with recent USD/JPY volatility seeing the pair drop toward 152.88 before stabilizing near 153.26. Mixed Japanese data, including stronger labour cash earnings and softer GDP, have not altered expectations for a 25 bps BoJ rate hike in September, keeping attention on BoJ communication and Yen-supportive policy signals. Yen strength, BoJ path and risks "The focus in our part of the world is still on the ongoing strength in the Japanese Yen, while also keeping an eye out on other global factors such as spikes in oil, the US Treasury’s buyback plans, coupled with importantly US CPI later this week." "We saw some volatility over the past day in USD/JPY, with the pair falling to as low as 152.88, and settling around 153.26 at the time of writing." "Overall, these numbers do not seem to have changed the pricing of BOJ rate hike for September, with markets essentially fully priced for a 25bps hike, and with the focus of the markets likely to be on the BOJ’s communication for the longer-term rate path." "Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent challenged traders and the market to counter his efforts to strengthen the Yen, essentially saying he has more information than others on what Japanese policymakers and the BoJ will do." "Looking back at history, sharp moves lower in USD/JPY of 10% or more are not uncommon, but whether this happens due more to domestic factors, or external drivers such as risk-off episodes and with that a sharp pick-up in vol also matter for other markets." "So far, the moves are more consistent with domestic drivers in Japan as the dominant factor, and as such EM in general and also carry trades have remained very resilient, but this is still a risk to watch for moving forward."

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Banks

September 9, 2026

Euro: Volatility eyed into late week – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that EUR/USD is likely to stay relatively quiet until later in the week, when the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US inflation data could trigger stronger moves. She highlights that market expectations for further ECB rate hikes may need to be revised lower, potentially weighing on the Euro, while stronger US inflation could give the Dollar a modest lift. ECB and US data to drive moves "Things won’t really get exciting for EUR/USD until the end of the week - specifically, tomorrow with the ECB meeting and on Friday with the US inflation figures for August." "At the ECB meeting, the key question will be whether the Governing Council signals further rate hikes after tomorrow’s expected rate increase, as the market still sees a chance of another rate hike by year-end and even beyond, whereas our experts are more skeptical and expect the rate-hiking cycle to end." "If the market has to revise its expectations downward, the euro is likely to weaken." "The market is hoping that the US inflation data for August will provide clues as to whether the Fed will indeed take action next week and raise the federal funds rate, as it is not yet entirely certain about this. So if the data comes in stronger than expected, adjustments to interest rate expectations could give the dollar a small upward boost." "As dull as today is likely to be on the foreign exchange market (in contrast to the energy market following the latest escalation in the Middle East) ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Friday’s US data, EUR/USD could become quite volatile toward the end of the week."

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Gold recovers further from one-week low, retakes $4.400 amid sustained USD selling

Gold attracts some buyers after touching a one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday. The USD remains depressed amid the BoJ-inspired JPY rally, lending some support to the commodity. Fed hike bets and geopolitical risks could limit USD losses and cap the bullion ahead of US inflation data. Gold (XAU/USD) builds on its intraday recovery from a one-week low and reclaims the $4,400 mark heading into the European session on Wednesday. The commodity, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak amid a weaker US Dollar (USD), which remains depressed near its lowest level in over two weeks amid the Bank of Japan (BoJ)-inspired rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, hawkish central bank expectations might keep a lid on any meaningful appreciation for the non-yielding bullion. A 25 basis point (bps) rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday is considered a done deal. Moreover, traders have fully priced in a BoJ rate hike at the September 17–18 meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also weighing a potential rate increase later this month. Meanwhile, the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revived bets for a September interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) amid inflation risks stemming from persistently higher energy prices. BNY sees September Fed hike as imminent after strong US jobs data Strategists at BNY argue that the latest labour market data have firmly re‑anchored expectations for further Fed tightening. They note that “after an exceptionally strong jobs print on Friday, even Governor Christopher Waller’s somewhat equivocal comments on Thursday don’t seem to be enough to change our view that a rate hike is imminent.” According to BNY, “after dropping somewhat last Thursday on the basis of Waller’s remarks, the expectation for a September hike is back to over 60%. We would be surprised to not get one.” Adding to this, escalating US-Iran tensions could help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD and cap gold prices. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, the US attacked Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island. Iran responded by firing over 30 missiles at US forces stationed at the Al Azraq base in Jordan. Moreover, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that ships in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports hosting US forces could also be targeted. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, lifting crude oil prices to a three-month high and fueling inflation fears. This underpins prospects for Fed tightening, which should act as a tailwind for the USD and keep a lid on gold prices. Traders might also await the release of US inflation figures – the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively – for cues about the Fed's policy path before placing fresh directional bets on the XAU/USD pair. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis The precious metal finds support near the $4,345-$4,340 confluence – comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% retracement level of the July-August upswing. This should act as a key pivotal point. Meanwhile, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 42, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in negative territory, hinting that the latest bounce is more a stabilization above trend support than an impulsive bullish leg. The technical setup, in turn, suggests that the upside momentum remains fragile and is likely to face immediate resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,427. However, a break higher would expose the 23.6% retracement barrier near $4,529. On the downside, initial support is aligned near the 200-period SMA around $4,352.88, followed by the 50.0% retracement at $4,344. A clear drop below this band would open the door toward deeper Fibonacci supports at $4,262 and then $4,144.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Today Markets – Oil, Apple and JPY in focus

Oil prices are rising on Wednesday as tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and the US threaten oil supplies as the two sides battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Stock futures have switched their attention from a strong earnings season to the challenges ahead, including a 10-year Treasury yield that is hovering close to the 4.8% level. European and US indices all point to a lower open later today, as the environment for risky assets hits a speed bump. Why $100 oil matters The oil price is climbing further on Wednesday as Middle Eastern energy supplies have been actively targeted in the latest escalation of the conflict. Brent crude oil is mere cents away from reaching $100 per barrel, and is up a further 1% on Wednesday. $100 is a psychological level that matters for markets. If the oil price rises above this level it will give many central banks no choice but to hike rates, it will increase costs for businesses and consumers and ultimately could weigh on economic growth. Still no TACO There is no sign yet of the TACO trade, and President Trump does not seem in a hurry to deescalate the situation. Winter of Discontent, as natural gas prices surge Some analysts argue that movements in the oil price could be worse. The price for Brent crude did not immediately surge to $100 per barrel or higher after the resumption of attacks in the Middle East. The reason is that exports of oil from the Persian Gulf have remained elevated, and were more than likely to be higher than data suggests. This is not the case for Natural Gas, as Qatar’s LNG exports are taking longer than expected to return to pre-war levels. This is why European Natural Gas has risen to its highest level since 2022, and has surpassed the highs reached when the war first broke out in February. The fact that we are moving into winter and European gas stocks are low is sending the Nat Gas market into overdrive, and is one reason why the price has spiked above $78. If prices stay at this level then this is what a winter of discontent could look like. USD/JPY: don’t fight the Treasury Secretary The yen is strengthening once again on Wednesday, after US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent dared traders to bet against the yen. USD/JPY is close to the 153 handle this morning, as intervention is holding for now. While Beesent’s comments may sound bizarre, it is true. The US will do what it takes to protect its Treasury market and prop up the yen. Bessent has signalled this is the end of Abenomics, and the BOJ are likely to back him up with a rate rise next week. A move back to 150 in USD/JPY is desirable for the Japanese and US authorities. We do not expect a broad move lower than this in the short term, as it could become a disorderly unwind of the global carry trade, which could also have negative implications for global financial markets. Stocks feel the heat As we move into the middle of the week, stocks are starting to feel the heat from geopolitical risks. US and European stock futures are pointing to a lower open today. US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, the Dow Jones fell more than 1% and there is a clear preference for European indices during this period of stress. The FTSE 100 suffered a mild loss on Tuesday, the Dax index was flat and the Cac managed to rise by 0.1%. We will need to see if European stocks follow US indices lower on Wednesday. Why is volatility not higher? Stock market volatility also increased on Tuesday, but it remains at low levels. Overall, the backdrop for markets is extremely reactive to changes in interest rate expectations and energy prices. Volatility is likely to persist even if the Vix index remains contained for now. Can the foldable iPhone keep Apple at the top of the Magnificent 7? Apple is also in focus as the market waits for its latest product launch later today. A foldable iPhone and the new iPhone 18 are expected to be unveiled. The stock sold off 1% on Tuesday, however, it is still higher by 16% YTD, and is the second best performing stock in the Magnificent 7 so far this year. If the launch goes well, then we could see further gains. However, that will depend on how the foldable iPhone, in particular, is received and whether analysts think consumers will upgrade. Apple’s latest pricing strategy will also be scrutinised. Gearing up for CPI Overall, the spike in energy prices complicates the picture for the US CPI report on Friday. If inflation right now is rising, then the August CPI report is already outdated. Even if August CPI is weaker than expected, fears will remain about where CPI could go next, which limits the chance of a recovery in global bonds or a reduction in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Until the tensions in the Middle East ease, it is hard to see the following market moves: A recovery in bonds A boost in the gold price A recovery in stocks Change is on the agenda for financial markets this September, and it could be a painful adjustment.

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Energies

September 9, 2026

Commodity Talk – Wheat, Oil.WTI, Gold, Natgas.EU

Market Situation On Tuesday, September 8, 2026, gains dominate the energy sector in the commodities market, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Brent crude is up by 1.61% and approaching $100 per barrel following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and a rebound in Chinese import demand. Meanwhile, European natural gas is up 2.48% today, supported by low inventory levels in Europe and production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. At the other end of the spectrum is the soft commodities sector, where price declines in cocoa and lean hogs are visible for another consecutive day. Investors' attention is primarily drawn to extreme, multi-year price deviations in the metals segment. Copper (+2.95σ from the 5Y mean) and zinc (+2.20σ) lead the industrial rally, aligning with long-term optimism from institutions like BlackRock. Equally strong deviations above historical norms are noted in precious metals, led by gold (+1.69σ), whose valuation remains near $4,400 per ounce in response to unrest in the Middle East. In the near term, the key factor for further commodity price dynamics will be the development of the geopolitical situation around Saudi oil facilities. Investors should also closely monitor the upcoming Bank of Japan interest rate decision, which could significantly impact global liquidity and sentiment toward tangible assets. Wheat The current price of wheat is $750, representing an increase of nearly 3% on a daily basis, despite a decline of about 3.5% over the week. In longer time horizons, the commodity exhibits strong upward momentum, gaining 18.01% over the month, a full 49.83% year-to-date (YTD), and 45.73% year-over-year. Technical indicators such as SMA and MACD send clear bullish signals, with the price currently sitting 12.82% above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA50). However, an RSI level of 72 signals overbought conditions, which could trigger a short-term downside correction in the absence of new catalysts. It is worth noting that net positioning in wheat has entered an extreme overbought territory, last observed in 2022. Fundamental and Market Context Late-summer heatwaves are rapidly accelerating crop maturation, forcing agricultural producers to prepare for an early harvest, which could result in a sudden surge in grain supply on the market. Rising crude oil prices approaching $100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions are drastically increasing farm fuel and crop transport costs. A global diesel shortage, expected to persist through the coming winter, poses serious logistical risks to the distribution and transport of wheat in international markets. Currently, the biggest challenge for the wheat market is the disruption of large supply volumes from Russia and Ukraine via Black Sea ports. The lack of prospects for an agreement is driving volatility higher in both wheat and corn. The risk of winter natural gas shortages in Europe, particularly in Germany, could curtail nitrogen fertilizer production, drastically raising crop costs for the next growing season. The impressive nearly 50% YTD rise in wheat prices reflects concerns over global food security and shrinking inventories among key global exporters. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on Saudi energy facilities and threats around the Strait of Hormuz, indirectly contribute to higher ocean freight rates for grain transport. A monthly price increase of 18.01% confirms that market demand significantly exceeds current supply, fueling market momentum and attracting institutional investors to the wheat market. Market positioning and overall investor sentiment toward wheat remain decisively optimistic, further supporting demand pressure on commodity exchanges. Historical Valuation (Z-score) Historical Z-score valuation metrics for wheat stand at +2.70 for the 1-year horizon and +3.73 for the 2-year horizon, while the 5-year metric currently sits at +0.62. Analyzing the trajectory of the 5-year indicator over the past six months reveals a strong upward trend. Six months ago it stood at -0.62, before rebounding slightly to -0.54 three months ago, and continuing higher to -0.23 a month ago, finally reaching its current positive value. This evolution shows a dramatic shift from undervaluation to moderate overvaluation on a 5-year scale, significantly raising the risk of a downside correction. Such high deviations, especially in 1-year and 2-year terms, suggest that the market is currently overheated and vulnerable to profit-taking by investors. Scenarios Bullish scenario: For the upward trend to be sustained, factors related to further logistical bottlenecks from diesel shortages and an escalating European energy crisis must coincide, driving a surge in fertilizer prices. Additionally, if the early harvest caused by heatwaves results in poorer grain quality and lower yields than expected, demand pressure will rise. Breaking key local resistance levels while maintaining strong MACD and SMA signals could test the psychological $780.00 barrier, and under a strong impulse scenario, prices could move toward $810.00. Bearish scenario: The bearish scenario assumes that heat-accelerated harvesting brings a swift influx of grain to the market, temporarily satisfying demand and triggering seller pressure. Furthermore, profit-taking driven by a strongly overbought RSI and any easing of crude oil market sentiment would lower transport costs. An agreement regarding Black Sea agricultural exports could reduce the significant premium in the grain market. Under these conditions, wheat prices could break local support and fall toward the SMA50 around $672.00, testing $650.00 in a deeper correction. Gold As of September 8, 2026, the price of gold is trading below $4,400, marking a modest daily decline of about 0.3%, while showing gains of 0.15% weekly, 0.09% monthly, and 1.44% YTD. On an annual basis, the precious metal shows a strong gain of 21.18%, though it is currently in a local consolidation phase, as indicated by neutral market sentiment and trading 3.28% above its 50-day moving average (SMA50). Technical indicators, such as an RSI of 41 and bearish signals from SMA and MACD, suggest supply dominance in the short term. Key short-term resistance remains near recent highs around $4,500, while primary technical support lies near $4,250 and at the SMA50. Short-term support is positioned near $4,337 at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downward wave. Gold prices remain in a major divergence from US T-Note bond prices. Fundamental and Market Context Gold prices remain elevated below $4,400, reflecting an impressive 21.18% annual rise that confirms a strong long-term uptrend. On the other hand, relative to its recent short-term peak, gold appears to be losing upward momentum. The correlation between gold and Bitcoin has fallen to very low levels by historical standards, indicating a decoupling of these two asset classes and independent price action for the metal. Historically, gold prices tend to rally strongly prior to the onset of major bull runs in the cryptocurrency market, a pattern clearly visible in the 2020–2021 and 2024–2025 cycles. Rising counterparty risk in the global economy creates highly favorable conditions for gold, which alongside Bitcoin is viewed as a crucial hedge against traditional financial system instability. Concerns regarding Federal Reserve interest rates and hawkish US monetary policy put pressure on non-yielding gold, limiting its potential for an immediate breakout from its current consolidation. The Fed's decision takes place next Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 60% probability of a rate hike—a likelihood that rose following solid NFP data. Friday's CPI inflation report could be the decisive factor for the Fed. Escalating Middle East tensions, including strikes between the US and Iran as well as attacks on energy infrastructure, sharply increase global risk aversion—theoretically favoring gold, but simultaneously raising risks of persistent inflation and rate hikes. Gold is increasingly positioned by fund managers as a wealth insurance policy, gaining importance amid elevated tech valuations and potential macroeconomic turbulence. Long-term physical gold demand prospects remain robust, driven by ongoing central bank reserve diversification amid rising global debt and geopolitical fragmentation. Buyers slightly trimmed long positions last week, which may be linked to rising US yields. Source: CFTC, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score analysis for gold reveals a nuanced valuation picture across different timeframes. The short-term 1-year Z-score (Z1Y) currently stands at -0.13, indicating the price is slightly below its 1-year average. On a 2-year horizon, Z2Y reaches +0.83, while the long-term 5-year Z5Y is +1.69. Examining the evolution of the 5-year Z-score over the past six months highlights a clear downward trend. Six months ago, this metric stood at +3.28, falling to +1.84 three months ago, +1.72 a month ago, and stabilizing at +1.69 currently. This trend reflects a gradual easing of the extreme historical overvaluation seen earlier in the year. The decline in the Z5Y metric reduces the risk of a sharp pullback and suggests gold is undergoing a healthy consolidation, bringing valuations closer to long-term averages. Scenarios Bullish scenario: A surge in systemic financial stability concerns and counterparty risk could drive safe-haven flows into gold. Dovish Fed pivot signals or falling Treasury yields in response to economic slowing would add tailwinds. Technically, a sustained breakout above $4,500 with MACD turning positive would open the door toward historic highs near $4,750–$4,800. Bearish scenario: A Fed rate hike driven by persistent inflation concerns would strengthen the dollar and boost yields, reducing gold's appeal. Technically, breaking SMA50 support with RSI dipping below 40 would signal a deeper selloff, potentially pushing gold below $4,300 toward structural support at $4,150. WTI Crude Oil WTI crude oil (OIL.WTI) trades just below $94 on September 8, 2026, marking a solid daily gain of 1.3%, ~4% weekly, and under 15% monthly, backed by an impressive ~64% YTD gain and +50% YoY. Technical indicators point to a strong uptrend, with both moving averages (SMA) and MACD generating bullish signals, while prices sit 15.40% above the 50-day moving average. An RSI reading of 72 signals overbought technical conditions, which alongside bullish market sentiment could foreshadow tests of $95.00 resistance and the psychological $100.00 level, while key support rests near the recently breached $92.00 level. Fundamental and Market Context The recent surge in oil prices is a direct market reaction to escalated military conflict in the Middle East following exchanges between the US and Iran. WTI futures surged past the key $94.00 per barrel mark to reach their highest levels since mid-June, reflecting panic buying among physical buyers and speculators. The futures curve currently shows steepening backwardation. Direct threats to Persian Gulf oil supply stability emerged from Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, who threatened further strikes on Saudi targets after attacking energy infrastructure. Supply disruption fears are compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, amplifying WTI price volatility. A strong bullish impulse for WTI also stems from Europe, where Brent crude nearly touched the psychological $100 benchmark following Saudi oil field attacks. Demand-side pressure is boosted by pre-winter fuel deficit concerns, which amid constrained global refining capacity significantly raises crack spreads and drives crude buying. OPEC+'s recent decision to maintain output quotas met expectations, though producers remain unable to ramp up output to target capacity levels. Calendar spreads remain elevated but show signs of stabilizing, which on one hand could limit near-term upside, but on the other suggests prices may remain anchored at elevated levels longer. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Noteworthy is that recent gains are concentrated in crude oil itself, while crack spreads are not advancing rapidly. This may indicate easing urgency from refiners to procure crude at current high prices. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Crude oil is in a seasonal bullish window that typically peaks around session 200, near late October. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Net positioning rebounded to average levels, though long positions remain relatively low given the massive price rally. Source: CFTC, XTB Historical Valuation (Z-score) Historical Z-score valuation metrics for WTI crude oil sit at elevated levels, standing at +1.15 for the 1-year horizon (Z1Y), +1.81 for 2 years (Z2Y), and +1.19 for 5 years (Z5Y). Tracking the 5-year Z-score over the last six months shows marked volatility. Six months ago it stood at +0.87, rising slightly to +0.98 three months ago, before sharply falling into negative territory at -0.11 a month ago, only to rebound aggressively to its current +1.19 level. This trajectory highlights a rapid shift from relative undervaluation to significant overvaluation relative to historical norms. It signals elevated downside correction risk should geopolitical premiums fade, as current prices rely heavily on risk pricing rather than demand fundamentals alone. Scenarios Bullish scenario: Further Middle East escalation through attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure or a Hormuz block, supported by bullish MACD/SMA technicals, would sustain upward pressure. Under these conditions, WTI could breach $95.00 resistance toward $100.00, with extended potential toward $103.50. Bearish scenario: Diplomatic de-escalation between the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia would rapidly deflate geopolitical risk premiums. Paired with profit-taking on an overbought market (RSI > 72) and hawkish Fed concerns, WTI could retreat below $92.00 support toward its SMA50 near $81.80. Natgas.EU European natural gas (NATGAS.EU) quotes show strong bullish momentum as of Sept 8, 2026, reaching 75.42—up 2.95% daily and 2.53% weekly. Medium- to long-term gains are substantial: up 22.08% monthly, 161.88% YTD, and 130.08% YoY. Technical indicators confirm buyer dominance: RSI has reached overbought levels at 70, while SMA and MACD signals remain strongly bullish, with price sitting 26.10% above its 50-day moving average. Nearest key technical resistance sits in the 78.00–80.00 region, while key support is marked by the psychological 70.00 level and the SMA50. Fundamental and Market Context Benchmark month-ahead TTF natural gas contracts rose 2.9% on Monday to €73.31 per MWh, up from €71.20 last Friday. European natural gas prices show significantly stronger bullish reactions to recent geopolitical developments compared to other energy commodities. LNG outflows from key production regions have been constrained, directly reducing supply to the European market. Tight LNG supply leaves European gas markets highly vulnerable to supply shocks ahead of the 2026–2027 heating season. Persian Gulf geopolitical tensions and shipping restrictions raise security of supply concerns for gas deliveries to Europe ahead of winter. Transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, with vessel traffic at low levels, complicating flexible balancing of European gas demand. Investors are closely watching potential Tehran-Oman talks regarding Hormuz management, as any shipping improvements could ease price pressures. Seasonality is becoming a key factor as approaching winter forces European buyers to step up purchases to secure storage volumes. Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score historical valuation for European gas points to growing futures market pressure. The 1-year Z-score stands at +2.70, while the 2-year Z-score reaches +3.51, reflecting substantial upward price deviation from historical averages. Analyzing the 5-year Z-score shows clear upward momentum over six months: standing at -0.30 six months ago, -0.26 three months ago, -0.15 one month ago, and rising to positive +0.31 currently. This transition indicates European natural gas has moved from relative undervaluation to trading above its 5-year average. Risk-wise, this suggests a tightening market where upside without corrections may be limited due to high historical deviation, raising profit-taking risk if risk factors ease. Scenarios Bullish scenario: Escalating Middle East tensions paralyzing Hormuz LNG transit could force European buyers to compete aggressively for spot cargoes. Early winter cold snaps accelerating inventory drawdown would amplify this. Technically, RSI holding overbought alongside a breakout above 78.00 could drive prices toward 85.00, or up to 92.00 per MWh in severe deficit conditions. Bearish scenario: De-escalation in the Gulf, including an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement, would restore LNG export flows. A mild, windy autumn in Europe would further reduce heating demand. A breakdown below 70.00 support would signal a correction toward SMA50 (~59.80), with potential to reach 55.00 under sustained calm.

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Energies

September 9, 2026

Brent Nears $100 on Mideast Hostilities

Brent crude rose above $99 a barrel on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in nearly seven weeks and approaching the key $100 threshold after Iran said it had struck two American vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf. The escalation heightened concerns over further disruptions to global oil supplies. Tehran also launched ballistic missiles toward Jordan and warned vessels in the Persian Gulf, urging tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports to “immediately abandon their vessels.” The latest attacks followed US strikes on five Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic’s main oil export hub. Elsewhere, Iran-backed Houthi militants targeted energy infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia, including the 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery. Meanwhile, stronger Chinese oil demand is lifting prices for African, Canadian and Latin American crude as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push refiners to seek alternative supplies from more distant markets.

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Energies

September 9, 2026

Heating Oil Moves Toward Record High

US heating oil prices rose above $4.63 per gallon, moving back toward their record high as refineries grapple with increasingly constrained refined-product supplies. The Middle East war continued to escalate as Iranian-backed Houthis launched strikes on Saudi energy facilities, including the Jazan oil refinery. This comes on top of ongoing disruptions and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are further limiting global diesel supplies, adding to the impact of Moscow’s existing export restrictions. Meanwhile, demand could increase as seasonal agricultural activity picks up, while the approaching winter heating season could add to pressure on distillate supplies. US refineries were already operating at 98% of capacity in the week ended August 28, leaving limited room to further increase distillate production. EIA data also showed that US distillate fuel stocks were 14% below the five-year average in late August.

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Energies

September 9, 2026

European Gas Extends Rally

European natural gas prices climbed above €76/MWh on Wednesday, extending gains for a fourth session to their highest level since December 2022, as continuing strikes in the Middle East heightened concerns over further supply disruptions. The US military said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island on Tuesday in response to attacks on its warships, while Tehran retaliated against US targets in Jordan. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen also launched drones and missiles at energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia. These underscored mounting challenges to restoring normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The sustained disruptions have forced Qatar to suspend shipments and extend force majeure on cargoes to Europe and Asia through autumn. The reduced LNG deliveries have slowed European storage injections, with gas inventories remaining below the seasonal average, leaving the market increasingly vulnerable as the winter heating season approaches.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Copper Slips on Profit-Taking

Copper futures eased to around $6.66 per pound on Wednesday, retreating from record levels as traders took profits while reassessing market fundamentals. The metal had surged to fresh all-time highs earlier this week amid tariff uncertainty and tightening global supply. The persistent premium for copper futures on New York’s Comex continued to offer arbitrage opportunities, even as the White House has yet to decide on proposed tariffs for the metal. Meanwhile, major copper-producing nations in South America have encountered operational difficulties this year, weighing on production and exports. Supply has also struggled to keep up with growing demand from data centers, renewable energy projects and electricity grids. In China, demand is expected to strengthen as the market enters the traditional peak season for manufacturing activity.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Corn Retreats Ahead of USDA Report

Corn futures fell below $5.10 per bushel, pulling back from an over three-year high of $5.21 hit on September 1, as traders adjusted positions ahead of Friday’s widely anticipated USDA supply-and-demand report. The decline came despite expectations for weaker US yields, which have continued to provide a floor for prices. Commodity brokerage StoneX lowered its estimate of the average US 2026 corn yield to 182.9 bushels per acre from 184.8 in its previous monthly forecast, raising concerns over tighter supplies. Meanwhile, warmer and drier weather across the US Midwest in the coming weeks is expected to limit harvest delays and reduce frost risks, potentially allowing fieldwork to progress quickly. The USDA reported that 5% of the US corn crop had been harvested as of last Friday, while 56% was rated good to excellent. Traders are also watching risks to Black Sea grain exports as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatens to disrupt supplies and tighten global grain markets.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Palm Oil Weighed by Weak Exports, India Bottleneck

Malaysian palm oil futures remained subdued, trading near MYR 4,960 per tonne, pressured by a stronger ringgit and weaker edible oil prices in the Dalian and Chicago markets. Meanwhile, exports remained sluggish, with cargo surveyors estimating August palm oil shipments fell between 6.5% and 14.9% from July, while inventories climbed to a five-month high in July. In India, heavy vegetable-oil buying congested major ports, delaying vessel unloading by up to 10 days as storage tanks overflow, potentially dampening near-term import demand. In top supplier Indonesia, new technical regulations tightened central government control over key export commodities, including palm oil, under President Prabowo Subianto’s plan to boost state earnings from natural resources. Still, losses were cushioned by firmer crude oil amid renewed Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, unusually dry conditions across Southeast Asia raised concerns over yields after triggering fires and haze in Borneo and Sumatra.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Cattle Rally Out of Labor Day Weekend

Live cattle futures closed the Tuesday session with contracts $2.37 to $4.50 gains across most contracts at the close. Cash trade saw light action last week with sales ranging from 218-220, with a few up to $222. Feeder cattle futures rounded out the Tuesday session with contracts $4.05 to $5.72 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 60 cents on September 7 to $326.98. Tuesday’s Crop Progress report showed the US pasture rating at 18% gd/ex, unchanged on the week prior. The Brugler500 index fell 2 points to 243. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Tuesday afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel widening to $22.18. Choice boxes were up $1.40 at $377.57, with Select 48 cents lower to $355.39. USDA estimated the Tuesday Federally inspected cattle slaughter at 109,000 head. Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $217.025, up $4.075, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $219.225, up $4.500, Feb 27 Live Cattle  closed at $220.450, up $3.875, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $328.875, up $4.050, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $325.450, up $5.300, Nov 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $320.450, up $5.725,

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Arabica Coffee Prices Fall on Increased Supplies from Brazil

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down -4.30 (-1.45%) on Tuesday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed up +53 (+1.56%). Coffee prices settled mixed on Tuesday, with arabica falling to a 2-month low.  Ramped-up coffee exports from Brazil weighed on arabica prices Tuesday after Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported Brazil's Aug coffee exports rose +44.6% y/y to 206,618 MMT, the most in 8 months.    Robusta coffee rose Tuesday as forecasts for heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-producing region, may flood farms and damage the country’s coffee crop.  Last Thursday, robusta fell to a 3-month low on signs of bigger coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.  Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported last Wednesday that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Aug) rose by +13.7% y/y to 1.33 MMT.  Above-normal rainfall in Brazil may benefit flowering for next year’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 8.9 mm of rain, or 127% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 30 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 218,838 bags on Tuesday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots last Wednesday. Late last month, arabica coffee rallied to an 8-month high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest. Coffee prices also have support from the devastating earthquake last month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Easing Supply Concerns Weigh on Cocoa Prices

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed down -275 (-4.44%) on Tuesday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed down -224 (-4.96%). Cocoa prices sank to 2-week lows on Tuesday and settled sharply lower as cocoa supply concerns ease.  Last Wednesday, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving the market better prepared to manage risks than it did during the 2023/24 El Niño weather event that drove cocoa prices to record highs. Also last Wednesday, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported that the Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, up +30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier.  Larger cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast are bearish for prices after last Tuesday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 30, 2026), up +19% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,436,742 bags last Friday. Cocoa prices have recently strengthened, with NY cocoa posting an 11.25-month high last Monday and London cocoa posting an 11.25-month high last Tuesday.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices.  Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins this month.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported on August 26 that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  On August 21, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

NY Sugar Prices Recover as Thailand’s Sugar Output Set to Decline

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.03 (+0.17%) on Tuesday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -7.20 (-1.37%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Tuesday. NY sugar recovered early losses and posted modest gains amid forecasts for lower sugar production in Thailand, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter.  On Monday, the Thai Sugar Millers Corp projected that 2026/27 Thailand sugar production could fall -17% y/y to 10 MMT. Sugar prices have been under pressure since last Wednesday amid speculation that India will import less sugar than initially expected.  The Indian government last week reduced the sugar dealer stock-holding limit to 200 MT from 400 MT, effective Sep 15 through Nov 20, to curb hoarding and boost domestic availability.  The action will help push more sugar stockpiles onto the market, potentially reducing India's need to import sugar.      An excessively long position by funds in NY sugar could exacerbate any price downturn.  Last Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that funds boosted their long NY sugar positions by 28,526 to a net-long 132,496 positions in the week ended September 1, the highest in three years.  Last Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 17-month high, and London sugar posted a 2-week high on the outlook for a global deficit.  Last Tuesday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT after a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  Green Pool Commodity Specialists on August 27 projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  Also, the European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said August 27 that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT. On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported Monday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 14% below normal as of September 7, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Cotton Posts Mixed Trade

Cotton futures were mixed on Tuesday, with contracts closing 22 points higher to 26 points lower.  Crude oil was back up $2.77 per barrel on the day, with the US dollar index slipping $0.335.  Weekly Crop Progress data showed 40% of the US cotton crop with bolls opening as of Sunday, with 7% of the crop with harvested. Condition ratings were pegged at 34% good/excellent, down 5 percentage points on the week. The Brugler500 index was down another 6 points to 398. The Cotlook A index was unchanged on September 7 at 96.00. ICE certified cotton stocks were down 8,678 bales on decertification on Friday, with the certified stocks level at 54,414 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by another 240 points on Thursday to 73.92 cents/lb. Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 82.64, up 22 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 86.32, down 1 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 88.71, up 9 points

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Wheat Post Gains Following Peace Talks

The wheat complex came out of the long weekend with gains across the board. Chicago SRW contracts were 6 ¼ to 14 ¼ cents higher at the close. KC HRW futures posted gains of 4 to 18 cents on Tuesday. MPLS spring wheat saw strength of 8 ½ to 11 cents to close out the session. A US envoy visited Russia and Ukraine over the weekend to discuss options for a peace deal between the two countries. The talks made little immediate progress as Russia struck Ukraine’s capital overnight and Ukraine’s president Zelensky stated that he expects the war to continue into winter. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed 86% of the US spring wheat crop harvested by Sunday, 3% ahead of the normal pace. The winter wheat crop was lagging the 5 year average for planting pace, by 3 percentage points at 2% complete. Tuesday’s weekly Export Inspections report showed wheat shipments of 342,733 MT (12.59 mbu) in the week of 9/3. That was 20.66% below the week prior and 20.13% below the same week last year. Mexico was the largest destination of 68,658 MT, with 68,049 MT shipped to Indonesia and 65,885 MT to Vietnam. Shipments for the marketing year are now 5.13 MMT (188.5 mbu) of wheat, which is 27.75% below the same period last year. The Saudi Arabia tender for 535,000 MT was cancelled after offer submitted were unsuitable. South Korean importers tendered for 100,000 MT of wheat from the US and Canada. Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.30 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.47, up 13 cents, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.04 3/4, up 18 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.19, up 16 3/4 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.29, up 9 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.54, up 9 cents,

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Corn Faces Weakness

Corn futures posted losses of 1 to 3 ¼ cents across most front months on Tuesday. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 3 3/4 cents at $4.87 3/4.  This week’s Crop Progress report showed 76% of the US corn crop dented as of September 6, with 25% listed as mature and harvest at 5% complete. Condition ratings were down 1 percentage point this week at 46% in good to excellent condition, as the Brugler500 index was steady at 347. Tuesday morning’s Export Inspections report showed corn shipments at 1.662 MMT (65.4 mbu) in the week of September 3. That was up 10.11% from the week prior and 15.2% above the same week last year. Of that, 1.027 MMT was for old crop , with the marketing year total via Inspections data at 84.83 MMT (3.34 bbu). There was 635,789 MT shipped for new crop. Mexico was the largest destination of 399,572 MT, with 355,910 MT shipped to Japan and 294,096 MT to Colombia.  Sep 26 Corn  closed at $5.11, down 1 cent, Nearby Cash  was $4.87 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $5.33 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $5.49, down 3 1/4 cents,

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Markets

September 9, 2026

Soybeans Come Out of Labor Day with Gains

Soybeans closed the day with contracts 6 ½ to 10 cent gains across the board on Tuesday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 6 1/2 cents at $12.57 1/4. Soymeal futures were down $1.50 to $5.30 at the close, with Soy Oil 94 to 155 points higher. There were no deliveries against September soybean futures overnight, with 106 deliveries for September meal and 11 for bean oil.  Monday’s Crop Progress data from NASS showed 26% of the US soybean crop dropping leaves. Condition ratings were steady at 58% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 353. USDA’s FGIS tallied soybean export shipments at 422,016 MT (15.5 mbu) during the week ending on September 3. That was 48.57% above the week prior and 9.66% lower than the same week last year. Of that, 212,196 MT was for old crop, with the marketing year total via Inspections data at 40.89 MMT (3.34 bbu). There was 209,820 MT shipped for new crop.  Egypt was the top destination of 115,187 MT, with 72,520 MT headed to Italy and 58,374 MT to Germany. Chinese import data showed August imports at 12.14 MMT, which was up 5.7% from the same month last year. Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $13.02 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $12.57 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $13.16 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents, Jan 27 Soybeans  closed at $13.32, up 7 cents,

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Energies

September 8, 2026

Brent Crude Nearing $100

Tanker attacks, the Strait of Hormuz dispute, and record US fuel prices fuel the next wave of the energy crisis. Oil prices on global exchanges are surging, with the valuation of a barrel of Brent dangerously approaching the $100 mark, reaching over $98. The American benchmark, WTI crude, is climbing above $93. The main driver of the recent sharp increases is the rapid escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and persistent attacks on refinery infrastructure. Oil prices have been are rising at a double-digit rate during the last 30 days. Source: XTB Escalation in the Middle East The situation in the markets is being exacerbated by direct clashes and an exchange of blows between US and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf region. Following American strikes on Iranian tankers, Tehran threatened to introduce a maritime exclusion zone and completely change the rules of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is key to global trade. Although Iran is holding talks with Oman regarding a new agreement on ship traffic control and transit fees, investors are skeptical about the chances of rapid stabilization. Rising military risks and potential blockades are dramatically increasing transportation and insurance costs. Highest US Fuel Price Levels During the Holiday The oil crisis directly affects consumers’ pockets. In the United States, the average price of gasoline reached a historic high of $4.15 per gallon during the Labor Day weekend, surpassing the previous maximum from 2012 ($3.82). It is worth noting that these are not the record levels for the entire year, as levels of $5 per gallon were recorded in 2022 when the war between Russia and Ukraine began. Diesel fuel has become even more expensive, with its price in the US reaching $5.90 per gallon. The global supply of finished fuels is further depleted by renewed Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries deep inside Russia and strikes on facilities in Saudi Arabia. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and ANZ warn that the illusion of commodity abundance has definitively passed. Given the lack of prospects for an imminent cessation of fighting, investment banks are raising price forecasts and expecting disruptions in oil flow until 2027, not ruling out testing the $120 per barrel level with further intensification of fighting at sea. Brent Crude Technical Chart The oil price is in a strong uptrend after defending the low around $70.00 at the turn of June and July. In the current trend, we observe a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The price is currently testing the key resistance around $98.50–$100.00, and the moving average system (SMA 50, SMA 100, and SMA 250) confirms the dominance of demand. Key Price Levels: Resistances: $100.00–$101.31: Main psychological barrier and 38.2% Fibo retracement. This is also the zone associated with the supply gap from May $107.23: 23.6% Fibo retracement. $120.95: This year's high Supports: $90.81–$94: First defense zone (SMA 100 and 50.0% Fibo). $86.59–$88.95: Former resistance (SMA 50 and 61.8% Fibo). $79.78–$80.00: Long-term support (SMA 250 and 78.6% Fibo). Market Scenarios: Bullish (continuation): A daily candle close above $101.31 will open the way for increases towards $107.23 and the high at $120.95. Corrective: A clear candle wick around $98-$100 may trigger a pullback to the nearest supports in the range of $94

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Chart of the Day: Wheat rebounds 3% after pulling back from multi-year highs

Chicago wheat futures (WHEAT) are up more than 3% today as investors price in a more persistent reduction in supply amid the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, with both sides targeting exports and disrupting key logistics routes. Despite visits by U.S. diplomats Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv, hopes for diplomatic progress in the Russia-Ukraine war have once again proved short-lived. The declines seen in recent days prompted some profit-taking, as a potential agreement could have facilitated grain exports through the Black Sea again. The prospect of renewed negotiations itself reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium, but that premium is now gradually returning as talks appear to have stalled and failed to deliver any significant breakthrough. Moscow has suspended export duties on wheat, barley and corn until the end of 2026 in an effort to lower exporters' costs and improve the economics of alternative export routes. However, rail and port capacity constraints remain in place. These bottlenecks continue to limit shipment volumes and sustain concerns about global supply. WHEAT chart (D1 interval) Over the past several sessions, selling pressure in wheat was visible across all major commodity exchanges, from the U.S. to France's MATIF. The pullback after wheat reached levels not seen since February 2023 was bound to be sharp. Following yesterday's U.S. holiday, CBOT traders are returning to the market and are once again buying wheat after an approximately 10% decline. At present, the key support area appears to be around 730 cents per bushel, while resistance is located near 790-795 cents per bushel based on price action. Below that, an important support zone could be found around 700-710 cents per bushel, where we have also seen significant price reactions in the past. Wheat is currently trading around 20% above its 200-day EMA, a situation that has historically been relatively rare and points to a very dynamic upward trend. Selling volumes clearly dominated in recent sessions. The RSI has cooled to around 60, while the MACD is showing a potentially bearish crossover of its moving averages. Source: xStation What did the latest Commitment of Traders report show for the wheat market? The latest CoT report for Chicago wheat shows a clear divergence between producer positioning and speculative capital. Managed Money, representing large speculators, made a strong move toward the long side over the week, while Commercials, particularly Producers/Merchants, which are the most important part of the commercial category, significantly increased their short exposure. Importantly, this happened alongside a 27,029-contract increase in open interest to 470,560 contracts, which suggests that fresh capital entered the market rather than the move being driven solely by the closing of existing positions. Managed Money currently holds 109,614 long contracts versus 94,710 short contracts, leaving the group approximately 14,900 contracts net long. One week earlier, funds were still around 2,200 contracts net short. This means their net position improved by roughly 17,100 contracts over the week. Even more important is the structure of that move: funds increased gross longs by as much as 22,113 contracts while simultaneously reducing shorts by 6,388. This indicates genuine new positioning for higher prices rather than only short covering. Commercials are positioned on the other side. Producers/Merchants currently hold 42,440 long contracts and as many as 144,846 short contracts, leaving them around 102,400 contracts net short. One week earlier, their net short position was approximately 79,800 contracts, meaning their negative net exposure increased by around 22,600 contracts in just one week. The shift is very clear: commercials reduced long exposure by 8,545 contracts and at the same time added as many as 20,413 new shorts. Producers and merchants are therefore using current elevated price levels to hedge future sales. This means that large speculators are increasingly building a bullish scenario, while the physical side of the market is aggressively selling into the rally . The sharp increase in commercial short positions is also a warning that higher prices are attracting increasingly strong natural hedging supply. Source: CFTC, Commitment of Traders, September 1

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Banks

September 8, 2026

Hungarian Forint: Inflation surprise and HUF dynamics – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that Hungarian inflation rebounded to 1.3% in August but stayed below expectations and the NBH’s forecast, with price growth seen remaining under target this year. Markets are focused on a potential pause in rate cuts and a lower inflation target ahead of Euro adoption, while EUR/HUF could move back above 364 if rising energy prices curb recent forint strength. Benign inflation but policy watch "Today's data confirmed the expected rebound in Hungarian inflation, from 1.2% in July, the lowest reading in nearly 10 years, to 1.3% in August, though it again came in below market expectations. Even so, we expect inflation to remain below the central bank’s target for the rest of the year. The NBH had forecast 1.8% for August, implying a forecast miss of 0.5pp, compared with 0.7pp in July." "The inflation outlook remains benign, but the NBH story has become more compelling since Bloomberg reported last week that the central bank was considering pausing rate cuts in September to pave the way for a lower inflation target ahead of euro adoption." "Subsequent NBH comments suggest that any policy shift will have to wait until the September meeting and its new forecast. Since last week, the curve has flattened sharply and the Hungarian forint has strengthened, moves that today’s data are unlikely to reverse." "We expect euro-area spreads to tighten further, although higher global energy prices may limit additional forint gains. EUR/HUF has fallen below 364, but if gas and oil prices continue to rise, we may return above this level again given how the forint has recently returned to its previous high-beta behaviour."

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Banks

September 8, 2026

Equities: Tech leadership with Astra boost – Danske Bank

Danske Bank notes European equities were broadly flat on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 unchanged and OMX Nordic slightly higher, while Asian markets rallied in thin trading as US markets were closed for Labor Day. The bank highlights strong performance in technology, particularly semi-conductors and AI-linked hardware, while rising bond yields weighed on real estate and other rate-sensitive sectors. Tech strength offsets rate headwinds "European equities were little changed on Monday, while Asian markets rallied sharply, but in thin trading as US markets were closed for Labor Day." "The Stoxx 600 finished flat and OMX Nordic gained 0.4%. Tech led performance, with semi-conductors and AI-linked hardware at the forefront, ignited by ChatGPT's launch of its new Astra model on Friday. " "Astra is designed to handle more complex reasoning tasks, which also increases the need for compute power, memory capacity and GPU intensity. Astra challenges that narrative." "The market reaction reflected this yesterday. Korean equities rallied 5% and another 2% this morning. European technology stocks also performed well, although gains elsewhere were constrained by another rise in bond yields." "Real estate and other rate-sensitive sectors lagged. US equity futures are broadly unchanged this morning."

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Banks

September 8, 2026

Euro: Range-bound risks against US Dollar with ECB focus – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes EUR/USD is holding near 1.16 as a softer US Dollar (USD) and firmer Euro-area data offset higher Oil prices. Strong expectations for a 25bp European Central Bank (ECB) hike and improving Euro-area sentiment are seen limiting Euro downside in the near term, though elevated Oil and political uncertainty in Germany keep risks two-sided ahead of the ECB meeting and US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Euro steadies as ECB looms "EUR/USD held up around the 1.16 handle overnight despite the continued rise in oil prices. A softer USD backdrop and firmer euro-area sentiment data offered some support, while markets remain heavily positioned for a 25bp ECB hike this Thursday." "Higher energy prices have also complicated the outlook for the ECB’s tightening cycle, with inflation risks becoming less comfortable against a backdrop of only moderate growth. Political uncertainty has edged higher following the AfD’s strong result in Saxony-Anhalt, although the broader implications for federal politics appear contained for now." "Firm ECB tightening expectations, together with signs of improving euroarea activity, should help limit EUR downside in the near term, although we remain cautious about chasing the pair higher." "EUR last at 1.1620 levels. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is flat. 2-way risks likely to persist. Support at 1.1560 (100 DMA), 1.1510 (50 DMA). Resistance at 1.1630 (200 DMA), 1.1710 levels." "Elevated oil prices remain a two-way risk for the euro, reinforcing inflation and ECB tightening risks while at the same time weighing on the region’s terms of trade and growth outlook. Focus now turns to the ECB meeting and US CPI later this week for the next directional catalyst."

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Banks

September 8, 2026

Japanese Yen: Strengthens against US Dollar on BoJ outlook – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan notes the Japanese Yen has strengthened below 154 against the US Dollar (USD), its firmest level since February, as markets price faster Bank of Japan tightening. A 25 bps hike at the 18 September Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting is seen largely priced, with focus shifting to future rate guidance. Wan projects USD/JPY drifting towards the low 150s over time as the BoJ hikes in September and January. Yen strength and BOJ path "The Japanese Yen strengthened to below the 154 level against the Dollar, its strongest since 23 February, amidst holiday-thinned US trading, likely positioning adjustments ahead of upcoming risk events, coupled with ongoing market pricing on a faster pace of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan." "A 25bps hike at the BOJ’s 18 September meeting has already been largely priced in, while attention is shifting towards the BOJ’s communication about the broader path of rate hikes at subsequent meetings." "Latest data from the CFTC as of 1 Sep suggests that Yen shorts started to rebuild post the joint US-Japan intervention at the end of July, and the recent moves in USD/JPY corroborate with some potential reduction in Yen shorts given the scale of the existing positioning coupled with being consistent with historical patterns." "Meanwhile, Japan's Foreign Reserves data for August also highlighted the potential magnitude of intervention. Japan’s foreign reserves fell by 6.2% to USD$1,208bn, with securities holdings in particular declining by USD$87.8bn to USD$839.6bn." "Overall, our Japan and global teams are forecasting USD/JPY to move towards the low 150s level over time, with the BOJ hiking in the September and January policy meetings."

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Oil Nears $100 per Barrel, USD/JPY Tumbles Again.

Asian equities are gaining, supported by the semiconductor sector. The broad MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi is rising by nearly 2.54%, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are among the strongest performers. Nasdaq 100 futures are up around 0.2%. Brent crude futures (OIL) are gaining nearly 1%, trading above $98 per barrel. The market is awaiting details of an agreement between Iran and Oman concerning shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while strong crude purchases by China are providing additional support to prices. The U.S. dollar remains under moderate pressure, with the dollar index down around 0.1% and the 10-year Treasury yield falling by 1 basis point to 4.77%. The weaker dollar is supporting gold, which is up 0.5% at around $4,440 per ounce, while silver is gaining 0.8%. Bitcoin is falling for a second consecutive session. After retreating from around $80,000, the cryptocurrency is testing the $78,500 level. In agricultural commodities, wheat futures (WHEAT) are attracting attention with a 4% rebound following steep declines over the previous three sessions, during which the price fell by around 10%, from approximately $7.90 to $7.30 per bushel. Copper has reached a record high for a second consecutive session, climbing to $14,617 per tonne. Prices are being supported by concerns over tighter near-term supply and the possibility of U.S. tariffs on refined copper. The yen continues to strengthen, pushing USDJPY to its lowest level since February as markets increase bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike at its September 18 meeting. USDJPY briefly fell below 153, with the Japanese currency gaining around 1% after rising 1.2% on Monday. The yen’s rally, initially supported by actions and communication from the Japanese and U.S. authorities, is increasingly being backed by fundamentals. Stronger-than-previously-estimated Japanese GDP growth and the fastest wage growth in nearly three decades are strengthening the case for further monetary policy normalization. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the authorities’ readiness to respond to excessive currency-market volatility and pledged further action to maintain orderly market conditions. Today’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively light in both Europe and the U.S. The U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released at 11 AM GMT. Market attention this week is focused primarily on Friday’s U.S. CPI report. Later in the week, investors will also analyze Thursday’s earnings from Oracle and Adobe for further indications about the strength of AI infrastructure spending and the impact of the investment boom on the software sector. USDJPY and OIL charts, D1 interval The pair recently plunged below its 200-day EMA (red line), moving into a downtrend. Following yesterday’s decline, we are seeing another downward impulse of a similar magnitude today. However, the candle’s long lower wick suggests that USDJPY may have reacted to support in the 152–153 area, where price action from January points to a potential double bottom. Source: xStation5 Oil has posted a strong rally and today reached levels not seen since late May and early June, rising by around 40% from its local lows near $70 per barrel. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Palm Oil Holds Gains Around MYR 5,000

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their upward momentum, hovering around MYR?5,000 per tonne as a weaker ringgit and stronger edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago lent support. Crude oil’s rally, driven by fears of prolonged Middle East conflict and supply risks, added further momentum. At the same time, an unusually severe El?Niño has deepened dry conditions across Southeast Asia, sparking fires and haze in Borneo and Sumatra, with more than 202,000 hectares reportedly burned, heightening concerns over crop yields. Yet gains were tempered by sluggish exports, with cargo surveyors estimating August shipments fell between 6.5% and 14.9% from July, while inventories climbed to a five-month high. In India, heavy vegetable-oil buying has congested major ports, delaying vessel unloading by up to 10 days as storage tanks overflow and refiners struggle to clear cargo, a bottleneck that could dampen near-term import demand.

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Silver Price – XAG/USD jumps to near $37 amid drop in US Dollar, bond yields

Silver price capitalizes on a lower US Dollar, US Treasury Yields. Investors keenly await the US PPI and CPI data for August. The US headline CPI is expected to remain stronger due to elevated energy prices. Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 1.25% to near $67.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) Treasury Yields come under pressure, with investors shifting their focus to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of August scheduled for Friday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.83 even after recovering some of its early losses. 10-year US Treasury Yields are down 0.17% to near 4.77%. Lower US bond yields result in an improvement in the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Investors will pay close attention to the US CPI data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. TD Securities sees core inflation contained even as headline CPI firms According to TD Securities, the August CPI report is likely to show that “underlying inflation stayed under control,” with core prices “rising 0.19% m/m (2.3% y/y).” The bank expects the “services segment” to be the main driver of gains, while “core goods prices likely acted as a drag by posting a modest m/m drop.” In contrast, TD looks for “headline CPI” to post “a stronger 0.37% m/m (3.4% y/y) due to rising energy prices and a slight pickup in food inflation.” The bank also cautions that “risks to our forecasts” are “skewed to the upside,” noting that its projections assume “a number of large price declines in tariff-exposed goods categories, including apparel and household goods.” Before the US consumer inflation data, investors will focus on the Producer Price Index (PPI) data of August, which will be released on Thursday. Silver Technical Analysis In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.97. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $66.49, suggesting the recent pullback is being supported rather than reversed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 keeps a mildly positive tone, hinting that bullish momentum is still intact without yet pushing into overbought territory. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the nine-day EMA at $66.49, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper consolidation toward lower levels not yet defined by the present indicators. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 could act as key hurdle.

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Gold benefits from weak USD; eyes $4,450 as focus remains on US CPI data

Gold regains some positive traction on Tuesday as the USD extends its JPY-led decline. Fed rate hike bets and geopolitical risks could limit USD losses and cap the commodity. The upside seems limited as traders seem hesitant ahead of the key US inflation data. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak as the recent US Dollar (USD) pullback from a three-week high gains momentum amid the rallying Japanese Yen (JPY). However, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, offer some support to the safe-haven buck and cap the non-yielding bullion. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the latest US inflation figures, due later this week. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Thursday and will be followed by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The crucial data will be looked at for more cues about the Fed's policy path amid inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Meanwhile, traders ramped up bets for a Fed rate hike later this month after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that job growth accelerated in August. USD support seen as markets await key US CPI Strategists at OCBC describe the latest US payrolls report as "supportive of the USD at the margin, but not sufficient on its own to drive a sustained leg higher." They argue that the stronger jobs data "reinforces the resilience of the US economy and should keep the risk of Fed tightening alive, which in turn may restrain USD downside." However, with "wage pressures still contained," OCBC expects markets will "require firmer inflation evidence before pricing a Sept hike with greater conviction." In this context, they note that "focus therefore shifts to this week’s CPI, where an upside surprise could provide the catalyst for renewed USD strength, while a softer print would likely keep price action more two-way." Furthermore, the widening US-Iran confrontation keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should limit losses for the safe-haven Greenback. In the latest development surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran threatened to retaliate against any new US attacks on its assets, warning that energy infrastructure across the Gulf was vulnerable. Adding to this, Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said that Tehran is preparing to enforce a full blockade around the Strait of Hormuz in response to economic sanctions, intensifying fears of a prolonged disruption to oil supplies. Investors remain worried that elevated energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures, underpinning prospects for Fed policy tightening. This, in turn, backs the case for the emergence of USD dip-buying and warrants caution for XAU/USD bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move for the Gold price and an extension of the recovery from an over one-month low, touched last week. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The precious metal holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly $4,288 and above a dense Fibonacci support band, keeping the near-term bias constructive despite fading momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 suggests a neutral-to-mildly positive tone. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero with a negative reading around -24 hints at waning upside pressure after the recent pullback. The mixed technical setup suggests that the Gold price could face first resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August upswing, around $4,523. This is followed by the recent swing-high zone anchored by the upper Fibonacci reference near $4,697.36, where a break would reopen the path for a renewed leg higher. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $4,415, followed by the 50.0% level at about $4,328 and the 61.8% retracement around $4,241.94, with the 200-day EMA near $4,288 adding broader trend backing just below the market.

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Markets

September 8, 2026

The State of “Memory Stocks”

Infrastructure development takes place in cycles. This is because large-scale projects require certain conditions and justifications, such as funding or synergies with the rest of the economy – and these justifications arise cyclically. This rule applies to roads, railways, schools and hospitals, but also to IT infrastructure, including AI. Whilst the timeframes, scale and resources may vary, the underlying mechanisms remain the same. This is why companies producing computer components, including DRAM, are cyclical companies. The market is keen to see the current market trend as a break from this pattern, but at present there is nothing to suggest that ‘this time will be any different’. Over time, the memory chip market also appears to have recognised the fragility of the growth scenario for the sector, which triggered devastating sell-offs. At the peak of the sell-off, memory chip companies lost between 40–60 per cent; today, they are ‘only’ 20–30 per cent below their most recent peak. The key questions regarding the industry’s future prospects are: What actually triggered the correction Where does the company stand fundamentally today What are the prospects for the memory market over the next few years? The question regarding the memory market is not ‘whether’ the cycle will repeat itself, but ‘when’ and ‘how’ this will happen. However, current valuation levels are already significantly weighed down by concerns about the sustainability of profits, whilst for companies with such strong growth momentum, the risk of inaccurate forecasts is very high and very costly. Revision of expectations Importantly, the sell-off in June and July was not a sudden revision of expectations regarding the company, driven by a thorough fundamental analysis. The sell-off was mainly triggered by the unwinding of leverage on memory companies, which (primarily) retail investors had built up over recent months. This movement was further exacerbated by a temporary deterioration in sentiment and the outlook for the entire ‘AI’ sector. This means that it was not earnings or expectations that fell – but the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Currently, companies in the sector have P/E ratios ranging from a conservative ~22 for Micron to a suspiciously low ~7 for SK Hynix. A low price-to-earnings ratio is no guarantee of growth; moreover, a low price-to-earnings ratio without any obvious signs of problems at the company – such as poor results or debt – implies hidden risks or, more broadly, investor unease. However, if such a low multiple appears in the valuation of a company with such extreme growth momentum as, for example, Micron or SK Hynix, this creates an asymmetric risk of having to make a sudden and drastic upward revision to expectations. The next test of current valuations will be Micron’s results on 30 September, which will allow us to assess which growth scenario the company is currently following and whether it is consistent with its valuation. Not all memories are the same In a sense, a huge proportion of the company’s terminal value lies in the RAM market. The problem with basing one’s assumptions on the behaviour of this market is that such an approach may be doomed to failure due to its complexity and volatility. Firstly, it is a completely mistaken assumption that we have to wait until new factories come on stream for the supply of memory on the market to increase – this is not the case. The supply of HBM memory should not be measured in dollars, but in bits. The effective supply of bits can be increased by improving yields, changing the production mix, ‘node shrink’, better HBM packaging and expansion into the Chinese market. At the same time, software optimisation is hampered by the correlation between the increase in computing power and memory requirements. Currently, HBM (high-bandwidth memory) accounts for approximately 20 per cent of the global (input) volume of silicon wafers, and this is set to rise to around 30 per cent by the end of 2027 (a key figure to monitor). However, this type of memory currently accounts for around 10 per cent of the total number of DRAM ‘bits’ reaching the market, and this figure is set to rise to 15 per cent over time. This is significant because it means that simply by optimising production methods, it is currently possible to squeeze out a few extra per cent of bit supply, which could eliminate a significant proportion of the shortages anticipated by the market. China Another weakness in the current forecasts for memory and semiconductor companies is China. CXMT currently has a processing (input) capacity of around 300,000 wafers per month and plans to reach around 600,000 within a few years at most. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers: They don’t need to worry about the margin, They do not have to compete for capital Nor do they need to compete at the very top level. Taking over the less advanced memory segments will suffice. Since the last correction in the memory sector, significant but difficult-to-verify reports have emerged suggesting that China is finally set to acquire “Immersion” DUV lithography machines. Should China acquire significant quantities of these machines, CXMT would likely be one of the first recipients. ‘Immersion’ DUV machines are not sufficient to enter the HBM memory segment, but they significantly improve the ‘yield’ of DRAM/LPDDR memory. AI models are evolving much faster than the hardware on which they run. New compression and computing techniques, along with changes to existing architecture, are sufficient to significantly reduce memory requirements. Subsequent generations and the synergy of various solutions from outside the HBM industry have already been able to realistically reduce costs and bottlenecks by an order of magnitude. We should not expect this process to suddenly come to a halt, nor that memory companies will, in an unprecedented manner, maintain equally unprecedented growth and profit margins at the expense of the rest of the sector. Contracts It is also worth looking at accounting policies and the complexities of memory supply contracts, as this is an aspect the market seems to understand the least. Many contracts signed by, for example, Micron contain a number of clauses relating to maximum and minimum prices, deposits and CAPEX financing. What does this mean in practice? Maximum and minimum prices protect both suppliers and customers. The market thrives on volatility, but companies do not necessarily do so. Optimising production processes and AI models will support supply, but the impact on contracts will be delayed. The moment new production capacity actually comes on stream, revenues may fall suddenly and drastically without warning, masked by previous batches of contracts that are out of step with market realities. “Tech-stack” A ‘tech stack’ is a group of subsystems and products within the much larger process of building, training and using AI models. These include, amongst others: Computational layer Data layer Software layer Energy layer Cloud layer Ect. And many others. The key point is that demand for memory is not only cyclical, but is also inextricably linked to other elements of the technology stack. At present, many investment projects have slowed down or come to a standstill as a result of memory shortages. This shortage is currently being addressed on the supply side, which will cause the bottleneck to spread to the rest of the ecosystem and various ‘stacks’ – this is not speculation; IBM’s latest results have demonstrated this unequivocally and emphatically. At present, other stacks, such as switches and software, remain under-invested. This will lead to a further shortage further down the investment cycle, and this shortage will trigger a build-up in the memory module market. This means that not only will the current shortage not persist despite the rise in investment, but there is a very strong likelihood that it will turn into a surplus more quickly than most people can imagine. This suggests that current forward valuation indicators may not represent an opportunity, but rather a harbinger of a scenario that has played out many times before.

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Copper is breaking ATH. What does KGHM have to say about this.

Copper prices have soared to record highs, breaking through the US$14,530 per tonne barrier on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Despite disappointing data from China – which traditionally drives demand for industrial metals – the market is experiencing an unprecedented short squeeze and a supply panic. Against the backdrop of a global scramble for physical supplies of the metal, investors’ attention on the Warsaw Stock Exchange is naturally turning towards KGHM Polska Miedź – one of the world’s largest producers of this commodity. The disconnect between Chinese fundamentals and market valuations Historically, the price of copper has been closely correlated with the state of the Chinese economy, which accounts for around half of global demand. We are currently seeing a significant divergence, with the metal having completely ignored the negative credit sentiment in Asia. July’s macroeconomic data from China was disappointing: retail sales rose by just 0.6% year-on-year, industrial production slowed to 4.5%, and new house prices fell by 3.2%. Despite the deepening crisis in the Chinese property market, copper is set to rise by around 15 per cent in 2026, with an annual rate of return approaching 45 per cent. This resilience stems from powerful long-term factors – the ongoing energy transition and the exponential growth in demand for infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres. These new sectors effectively offset the weakness in the traditional construction sector. Backwardation and warehouse drawdowns: the US vs China The key driver behind the current bull market is a severe shortage of physical metal. The situation on the LME is characterised by the highest backwardation (a premium for spot delivery over futures contracts) since 2021. At times, the spot price has exceeded three-month futures contracts by a staggering USD 400–543 per tonne. Such a forward curve is a clear indicator of panic amongst buyers. Why is there a shortage of copper on the physical market? The spectre of US tariffs: Fears that Donald Trump’s administration will soon impose tariffs on refined copper have triggered a wave of arbitrage. Traders are aggressively buying up the metal in Europe and Asia, transferring it to the US COMEX exchange. Critical LME stock levels: Global stocks tracked by the London Metal Exchange have shrunk to around 200,000 tonnes, having fallen continuously for a record 42 days. Nearly half of this volume has already been set aside for physical delivery, leaving the market with a dramatically low supply of liquid metal. Bottlenecks at Chinese smelters: Chinese copper smelters are being forced to cut production due to shortages of suitable-quality ore and tighter controls on the copper scrap market, which are further constraining supply. KGHM Polska Miedź: The main beneficiary of the supply panic For KGHM, a giant in the Lower Silesian copper basin and one of the global leaders in copper and silver mining, the current market environment is a powerful catalyst for its share price. Historically, KGHM shares have shown an almost direct correlation with copper prices, further amplified by the currency effect (the USD/PLN exchange rate). The current ‘short squeeze’ is affecting the company in several ways: A sharp improvement in operating margins: Mining costs at KGHM’s mines are relatively stable. Breaking through historical highs and the price approaching USD 14,500–15,000 per tonne means that every additional zloty from the sale of the raw material goes directly into the company’s operating profit. Supply reliability premium: When there is a shortage of physical metal in exchange warehouses, producers with an integrated value chain (from their own mines, through smelting, to their own refineries) have enormous bargaining power over their customers. Silver bonus: The rise in silver prices (which have deviated by +2.95σ from the five-year average) is further boosting the profits of KGHM, one of the world’s leading producers of this metal. Interestingly, the ongoing pressure on funds holding short positions on the LME could result in further forced buy-ins, driving prices up to around US$15,000 per tonne. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to sustain demand for commodities as a safe haven, KGHM could be set for one of the most profitable quarters in its history. Copper is hitting new all-time highs, whilst KGHM shares remain slightly below ‘their’ historical range. Source: xStation

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Copper Moves Toward Record High

Copper futures climbed to around $6.7 per pound on Tuesday, nearing fresh record highs as expectations of new US import tariffs on the metal continued to encourage traders to redirect shipments toward US warehouses, tightening supplies elsewhere. The persistent premium on copper futures traded on New York’s Comex continued to create arbitrage opportunities, even as the White House has yet to finalize the proposed levies. The tariff-driven trade triggered a major squeeze and backwardation on the LME last month, although new deliveries have helped ease some of the immediate supply pressure. Major copper-producing countries in South America have also faced operational challenges this year, contributing to weaker output and exports. Meanwhile, supply has struggled to keep pace with rising demand from data centers, renewable energy projects and power grids.

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Geopolitics

September 8, 2026

Iran’s warns economic warfare will be met by maritime exclusion zone

Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, warned on Tuesday that Tehran would respond to what it calls US "economic warfare" by imposing a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf. "Economic warfare will be met by a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter," said Rezaei, adding the zone would extend to the edge of the US naval blockade currently in place around Iranian ports. "In recent days, Washington has received a clear warning from Iran's new missiles," Rezaei said in a post on X. Rezaei stated that the country's military posture toward American forces had been "fundamentally recalibrated.” Rezaei was likely referring to the Qassem Basir ballistic missile that Iranian media reported was fired at US warships near the Strait of Hormuz. The US military said its warships evaded any missile attacks. Market reaction At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.02% on the day at $93.15.

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Forex Trading

September 8, 2026

US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles below 99.00, two-week low as traders eye US inflation data

DXY drifts lower for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five. USD bulls continue to trim long positions amid the rallying JPY and ahead of the key US inflation data. Rising Fed hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions could lend support to the safe-haven Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day and drops to an over two-week low during the Asian session on Tuesday. The index currently trades around the 98.80 region, down 0.10% for the day, though it manages to hold above a three-month trough, touched in August, as traders await this week's US inflation figures. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The crucial data will be looked at for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path, which, in turn, would play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the US Dollar (USD). In the meantime, a surging Japanese Yen (JPY) is seen adding significant momentum to the recent pullback in the DXY from a nearly three-week high, touched last Wednesday. Meanwhile, the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released last Friday, increased the chances of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting amid inflation risks stemming from elevated energy prices.  In fact, crude oil prices sit near July 24 highs amid heightened fears of prolonged disruptions to supplies on the back of US-Iran confrontations around the Strait of Hormuz. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and could support the safe-haven Greenback. USD support seen as markets await key US CPI Analysts at OCBC describe the latest US payrolls report as "supportive of the USD at the margin, but not sufficient on its own to drive a sustained leg higher." They argue that the stronger jobs data "reinforces the resilience of the US economy and should keep the risk of Fed tightening alive, which in turn may restrain USD downside." However, with "wage pressures still contained," OCBC expects that markets will "require firmer inflation evidence before pricing a Sept hike with greater conviction." In this context, they note that "focus therefore shifts to this week’s CPI, where an upside surprise could provide the catalyst for renewed USD strength, while a softer print would likely keep price action more two-way." DXY daily chart Technical Analysis The DXY maintains a bearish near-term tone beneath the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 99.52 and the key Fibonacci retracement band above 99.00. The loss of the 61.8% retracement at 99.23 leaves the index capped by a dense overhead cluster, suggesting rallies are likely to face supply while price remains lodged below these medium-term resistance levels. Immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 99.23, followed by the 200-day EMA at 99.52 and the 50.0% retracement near 99.72, with higher hurdles at the 38.2% level around 100.20 and the 23.6% retracement at 100.80. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 98.55, ahead of a lower structural floor around 97.67, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the decline.

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Energies

September 8, 2026

WTI slips below $90.50 despite rising Middle East supply risks

WTI may rise as Iran threatens regional energy infrastructure following last week's nearly 10% price surge. Escalating attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi facilities spark severe Middle East supply disruption fears. Below-average US fuel inventories are tightening global oil markets further despite ongoing Persian Gulf exports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower and is trading around $90.40 per barrel during Asian hours on Tuesday. However, crude oil prices may regain ground as Iran vowed to strike energy infrastructure across the Middle East in response to further United States (US) attacks on its assets, marking the latest escalation in a conflict that has sharply reduced regional oil supply. Oil prices surged nearly 10% last week as renewed fighting raised fears of deeper energy disruptions, with both sides stepping up attacks over the weekend on ships and military vessels around Hormuz. Saudi Aramco’s facilities in Jazan near the Red Sea were targeted again on Monday, though damage remained limited. Additionally, Iran announced that an agreement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing completion, fueling concerns over Tehran’s growing control of the key waterway. Compounding these supply risks, the United States, the world's largest oil producer and consumer, is facing tight domestic inventory levels. Reuters cited PVM Energy analysts, noting that US stocks of gasoline and distillate fuel are substantially below year-ago and five-year seasonal averages, indicating a slightly direr picture than just a few weeks prior. Despite these heightened geopolitical and supply risks, oil continues to flow out of the Persian Gulf, with roughly 7 million barrels a day of crude and refined products currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent support seen holding as Societe Generale downplays risk of major correction Analysts at Societe Generale argue that the current uptrend in Brent remains intact, noting that "signals of a large pullback are not yet visible." They add that "last week's low near $89 could provide short-term support," reinforcing their view that downside risks appear limited for now.

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Earnings

September 8, 2026

European Gas Climbs Amid Supply Concerns

European natural gas prices rose to €73.7/MWh on Tuesday, hovering at their highest level in more than three and a half years, as LNG supply from the Persian Gulf remained severely disrupted amid heightened US-Iran tensions. The escalation in fighting between the two nations underscored the difficulty of reaching a resolution to the conflict that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran on Monday warning that energy infrastructure across the region, including US oil and gas facilities, could be vulnerable to further attacks. Qatar has largely suspended LNG shipments and extended force majeure on cargoes bound for European and Asian markets through the autumn, as shipping disruptions continue along the critical waterway. The reduced inflow has slowed the pace of gas storage injections in Europe, with EU storage facilities around 66% full, below the seasonal average, leaving the gas market increasingly vulnerable as the heating season approaches.

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Markets

September 8, 2026

Wheat Futures Rise as US Peace Efforts Falter

Wheat futures rose above $7.30 per bushel, rebounding from losses on September 4, as Washington’s renewed push to end the Russia-Ukraine war failed to deliver a meaningful breakthrough toward restoring Ukrainian and Russian grain exports. Over the weekend, US representatives met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Putin reportedly ordered a three-day pause in Russian attacks on Kyiv to coincide with the US delegation’s visit to Ukraine, but stressed that the two sides had not agreed to a broader ceasefire. President Putin is reportedly determined to bring the entire Donetsk region under Russian control within six months, while Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries on Monday. The intensifying conflict has disrupted grain trade, as attacks on Black Sea terminals and export infrastructure hamper agricultural exports.

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Markets

September 7, 2026

Chancellor keeps Budget under wraps, as he promotes growth, growth, growth

John Healey’s first speech as Chancellor has had a minimal effect on UK Gilt markets. The 2-year yield is up less than 2 basis points this morning, and the 10-year Gilt yield is up by 1bp, in line with the movement in yields elsewhere. Sterling is also up a notch, but overall, the new Chancellor has not rocked the boat for financial markets. No floating of Budget plans for Healey This much-anticipated speech affirmed Healey’s commitment to the fiscal rules, and he also said that he would maintain a buffer to protect the economy from unexpected challenges. However, tax and spend decisions that may be included in the Budget were conspicuous by their absence. Healey would not be drawn on tax plans, aside from saying that he would stick to the manifesto promises to not raise VAT, income tax and corporation tax. He would not speculate on the content of next month’s Budget, aside from saying there is a need to bring down welfare costs. If Healey wants growth he has to ditch tax rise hopes Rather than focus on the details of his Budget, instead Healey wants his focus to be on growth. Although he did not rule out tax increases, which may lead to concerns that taxes will be raised. However, we think that the fact he is talking about growth, and one reason why growth is under pressure in the UK is because of a record high tax burden, suggests that tax rises in this budget would not help him to reach his mission of growth in every postcode. Markets favour Healey’s approach to Budget Unlike previous budgets, where plans have been floated in advance, Healey is doing the opposite. The Budget is under wraps for now. This is why the market impact from this speech has been minimal and he has not rocked the boat, which we can assume is exactly what John Healey wanted. Decentralisation the focus of Healey’s growth plans The main focus of his speech was de-centralisation and growing business investment. This is one way to boost public sector spending without adding pressure to the national debt, since this spending is outside of Healey’s fiscal rules. The Chancellor followed Andy Burnham’s line on decentralisation. He said that he wants to decentralise investment and wants a road map to fiscal devolution, that could include a share of income tax. This is a bold change, however, the plan was lacking in detail, so we can assume that it won’t happen in this parliament. Healey doesn’t forget London He talked up London, calling it the UK’s powerhouse. However, he said that the UK needs to follow the lead from France and Germany with boosting city regions. This could attract some criticism especially since the UK grew at a faster pace than France and Germany in Q2. However, Healey should be praised for pushing for more investment and growth and trying to be more positive about the outlook for the UK economy, especially compared to his predecessor. Healey won’t rule out scrapping the pension triple lock There were also questions on spending, after recent criticism of the pension triple lock. Healey refused to comment on spending cuts, but he did say that welfare reform is necessary. Could there be a change to the triple lock, in return for cutting national insurance for young people to reduce NEETS? We believe that this option is looking increasingly likely for next month’s Budget. It would be the easiest way to reduce youth unemployment, and it would give Burnham’s government credibility on bringing the UK’s spending problem under control.The main takeaway from Healey’s speech is that the Budget is on 28th October, and he won’t be disclosing his plans before then.

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Forex Trading

September 7, 2026

Chart of the Day – USD/JPY lowest since February – what stands behind the decline?

The yen continues its appreciation, which began on September 2. On a weekly basis, the Japanese currency has strengthened against the US dollar by over 3%. Figure 1: G10 Currency Performance (31.08.2026 - 07.09.2026) Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026 Shift in Fundamentals? There are many indications that the move was not the result of direct market intervention, but was supported by hawkish repricing following a change in rhetoric from Bank of Japan officials. On September 2, during a speech to business leaders in Sapporo, Hajime Takata, one of the BoJ policymakers, described the current year as a "regime change year," implying greater flexibility in responding to incoming data. He stated at the time that the bank should be more aggressive than the market expects, pointing to the need for dynamic interest rate hikes to quell gathering inflation pressure. Rate hike expectations were further fueled on the same day by Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda himself. As he highlighted: "we have concluded that within our monetary policy, we must pay greater attention than before to the risk of further inflation increases." The next meeting is as soon as September 18 (next Friday). Investors have little doubt that it will bring an interest rate hike. What will be more important is whether another hike will follow before the end of the year (and whether there is a chance for another upward move as early as October). Figure 2: Market-Implied BoJ Interest Rate Path (2026 - 2027) Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026 Reserves Are Shrinking A significant shift in the BoJ's monetary policy is exactly what the markets have been waiting for. In previous months, we saw regular interventions from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan - however, they did not lead to a lasting stabilization of the exchange rate. This does not mean, of course, that they are not still a valuable tool in the arsenal of the MoF and BoJ. Foreign exchange reserves, although shrinking by a record $80 billion in August, remain at a very high level ($1.21 trillion), corresponding to nearly 20 months of imports. This is several times more than in most other developed economies. Moment of Truth? USDJPY pair will, of course, depend not only on developments in the Land of the Rising Sun. Market attention this Friday will turn to the August US CPI inflation reading, which could ultimately decide the FOMC's decision at next week's meeting. In this context, it is worth recalling the words of Christopher Waller, who stated last Thursday that the disinflation process is progressing, and core inflation looks even better than the main indicators suggest. He noted at the time that unless the upcoming CPI inflation reading presents a negative surprise, he will likely support keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting. Figure 3: Change in Market-Implied Probability of a September Rate Hike in the US (2025 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026 Technical Analysis Figure 4: USDJPY [D1] (08.08.2025 - 07.09.2026) Source: xStation, 07.09.2026 As a result of the recent combined intervention and hawkish statements from BoJ officials, the rate fell significantly below all established moving averages (EMA 50, 100, 150). The pair broke below the previous low from the second half of April (around 155). The RSI indicator entered a deep oversold zone (25.8), which may suggest a slowdown in aggressive declines, increasing the probability of an upward correction in the coming days. However, MACD does not signal a trend reversal at this point.

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Banks

September 7, 2026

British Pound: BoE repricing risk weighs on Sterling – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that United Kingdom (UK) July Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected flat month-on-month, is unlikely to alter Bank of England (BoE) expectations. The swaps curve implies 75 bps of tightening to 4.50%, which Haddad deems too aggressive, warning this leaves British Pound (GBP) exposed to a dovish BoE repricing given the negative output gap, above-midpoint policy rate and prospects for tighter fiscal policy. Market pricing seen too aggressive "UK July GDP is due Friday but is unlikely to shift the dial on Bank of England (BOE) rate expectations. Real GDP is expected at 0.0% m/m vs. +0.3% in June, as July’s decline in retail sales volumes offset an improvement in the composite PMI. For reference, the BoE’s baseline Q3 forecast is 0.1% q/q." "The swaps curve implies 75bps of BOE rate hikes in the next twelve months to 4.50%. That’s too aggressive in our view and leaves GBP vulnerable to a dovish BoE repricing." "The UK’s negative output gap, a policy rate above the mid-point of the BoE’s 2% to 4% neutral range estimate and the prospect of tighter fiscal policy all argue for a less aggressive hiking cycle." "UK Chancellor John Healey has pledged to build a solid fiscal “buffer against uncertainty” in the October 28 Budget. That points to a mix of tax rises and spending cuts as higher borrowing costs are estimated to have halved the government’s fiscal headroom to around £12bn."

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Banks

September 7, 2026

US Dollar: Strong payrolls fail to sustain Dollar gains – MUFG

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes the Dollar strengthened after a stronger-than-expected August US jobs report, with Nonfarm Payrolls and labour participation surprising to the upside while wage growth eased. Markets now price a significant chance of further Federal Reserve tightening by December, but DXY remains little changed since Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, suggesting investors are not yet convinced of a sustained Dollar rally. Jobs data bolster Fed tightening risks "The US dollar ended last week on a firmer footing after a much stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls report. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162k in August, well above consensus expectations of 55k, while July employment was revised higher to a gain of 21k from an initially reported decline. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% and labour force participation improved to 61.6%, pointing to a labour market that remains resilient." "Meanwhile, average hourly earnings slowed slightly to 3.1%yoy from 3.2%yoy, suggesting wage pressures continue to ease gradually." "Importantly, markets continue to price more than 60% probability of a 25bps Fed hike at the September FOMC meeting and approximately 35bps of cumulative tightening by December, equivalent to around 1.4 hikes by year-end." "DXY gained 0.3% on Friday, though essentially unchanged since Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. This divergence suggests dollar bulls may not be convinced yet that higher yields can generate a sustained dollar rally." "Renewed calls by President Trump for lower interest rates, together with his threat to stop trading with countries that the US has a trade deficit with, may also contribute to some negative policy premium on the dollar."

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Banks

September 7, 2026

Oil: Prices climb on supply risks – UOB

According to UOB strategists Oil prices extended gains, with Brent crude settling above $96 and posting a strong weekly rise as disruptions to Middle East supply routes and renewed geopolitical tensions supported energy markets. Brent and WTI futures advanced further, with weekly gains approaching 8% and 10% respectively, while markets watch developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and WTI log strong week "Oil prices also advanced, with Brent crude settling above US$96/bbl and notching a strong weekly gain, as ongoing disruptions to Middle East supply routes and renewed geopolitical tensions continued to support energy prices." "Oil prices gained more than 7% for the week after the US and Iran resumed military exchanges in the seventh month of their conflict, while US diesel prices hit a record high." "Brent crude futures gained 76 cents to close at $96.28/bbl, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 18 cents to settle at $91.48/bbl." "Brent was up nearly 8% for the week and WTI gained almost 10%." "Financial markets will be keeping a close watch on developments in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, with any signs of further disruption to energy supplies likely to influence risk sentiment and oil prices."

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Banks

September 7, 2026

Euro: Support at 180 eyed against Yen on BoJ risk – DBS

DBS strategist Philip Wee argues that downside risk in EUR/JPY is less straightforward than in CHF/JPY. He notes that Euro (EUR) strength versus the Swiss Franc (CHF) and British Pound (GBP), and an anti-USD trade, support the Euro as markets price in rate hikes from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, he warns EUR/JPY could fall below 180 if the BoJ accelerates normalization. Euro support but BOJ a risk "The downside risk in EUR/JPY is less straightforward." "First, the EUR and its anti-USD trade could remain supported by the USD debasement theme." "Second, strength in EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP provides a synthetic tailwind for the EUR from the European Central Bank’s relatively more hawkish stance compared to its Swiss and British counterparts." "Markets are pricing in a 95-100% probability of rate hikes at both Thursday’s ECB meeting and next week’s BoJ meeting." "However, JPY may gain the upper hand if the BoJ affirms an accelerated pace of normalization, pushing EUR/JPY below its psychological support at 180."

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Markets

September 7, 2026

Economic Calendar: ECB decision, Oracle results, and US inflation – what to expect?

This week will be dominated primarily by Friday's release of US inflation data for August. For many FOMC policymakers, these figures could ultimately tip the balance towards either a pause or an interest rate hike at next week's meeting. CPI Inflation (Friday, 11.09) In this context, it is worth recalling the words of Christopher Waller, who stated last Thursday that the disinflation process is progressing, and core inflation actually looks even better than the headline indicators suggest. He noted at the time that if the upcoming CPI inflation reading does not present a negative surprise, he will most likely support keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting. ECB Meeting (Thursday, 10.09) When discussing monetary policy, it is impossible not to mention Thursday's decision by the European Central Bank. Figure 1: ECB Implied Policy Path [Number of Priced Hikes] (2026 - 2027) Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026 As a rate hike is currently fully priced in by the markets, attention will focus on any guidance regarding subsequent moves. Recently, bets on more aggressive monetary policy tightening have increased (primarily due to the dynamic rise in TTF gas prices). The market expects a total of three upward moves by mid-2027. Oracle Results (Thursday, 10.09) On Thursday, after the Wall Street market close, Oracle will present its financial results. Investors' attention will focus primarily on the revenue growth in the cloud segment and the value of the backlog of future orders, which serve as the main indicator of monetising the growing demand for AI infrastructure. As with other companies in the broader AI ecosystem, the bar is set exceptionally high. Current data will be highly important, but the guidance will be critical. 🌏 Key Macroeconomic Releases The end of last week was dominated by the key release of NFP data. This week has started quietly - with inflation data from Sweden and industrial production from Germany. Friday United States The headline reading, i.e. the change in non-farm payrolls, rose to its highest level since March (162k), landing significantly above expectations. Food services (+59k) and local government education (+42k) accounted for over 60% of the August increase. However, the share of industries expanding employment rose to 55.6% (the highest level since December 2024). The data for the previous two months were revised upwards by 55k. However, the market reaction was not as strong as might be inferred from the above figures. The key unemployment rate remained unchanged (4.1%), and wage growth surprised only very slightly on the upside in annual terms (3.1%). The lack of a decline in the unemployment rate was largely due to an increase in the participation rate (to 61.6%). The market-implied probability of a September rate hike rose to 60% (compared to approximately 50% before the release). Figure 2: Change in the Market-Implied Probability of a September Rate Hike (2025 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 07.09.2026 Monday Sweden Inflation data surprised on the downside. Both the CPIF (0.7%; calculated at constant interest rates) and the CPI (0.3%) came in lower than expected. A rate hike in September is currently not considered a realistic option by investors (approx. 10% market-implied probability). The base scenario is an upward move only in December. Germany Hard data on industrial production for July failed to match the trend previously outlined by the leading PMI figures. The indicator fell by 1.1% month-on-month. 📆 Economic Calendar Today, Labour Day is celebrated in the United States, meaning Wall Street will remain closed. Attention will shift to European markets. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, it will not be an intensive day. Monday Eurozone: GDP growth in Q2 (revision)Time: 10:00 AMPreliminary reading: 0.4% q/q Time: 10:00 AM Preliminary reading: 0.4% q/q Tuesday Japan: Wage growth in JulyTime: 12:30 AMPrevious: 2.8%Consensus: 3.9% Time: 12:30 AM Previous: 2.8% Consensus: 3.9% Hungary: CPI inflation in AugustTime: 07:30 AMPrevious: 1.2%Consensus: 1.4% Time: 07:30 AM Previous: 1.2% Consensus: 1.4% 🗂️ Corporate earnings releases None - Labour Day in the US. 3 markets to watch OIL: The lack of optimistic headlines from the Middle East has led to further increases in the prices of key energy commodities. A barrel of Brent crude is currently trading near 100 dollars (an increase of over 10% on a weekly basis). EU50: In the absence of trading on the US market, market attention will focus on European indices. Red dominates in early trading. EURUSD: A stronger-than-expected NFP reading supported the dollar, though the move was modest. The pair is waiting for two events of fundamental importance: Thursday's ECB meeting (especially guidance from President Lagarde) and Friday's CPI inflation data from the United States.

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Markets

September 7, 2026

The Week Ahead

Key takeaways Political change in Europe is the euro’s biggest long term problem What an upside payrolls surprise means for markets this month CPI data to determine the September FOMC rate decision President Trump complicates picture for Fed Fed independence on the line The market outlook Can JPY strength last? 3 events to watch The Week Ahead: US CPI to determine whether the Fed pulls the trigger this month Markets are quiet at the start of a new week. The euro is mostly stable, even though the AfD, a far right party in Germany, won the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday. This is the first time a far right party has held power at state level since the Second World War. Political change in Europe is the euro’s biggest long term problem FX traders may be focused on JPY intervention, but the AfD has said that one of its policies would be to quit the euro and restore ties with Russia. While the AfD are still some distance from holding power in Berlin, this development is dangerous for the longer term stability of the single currency. In France, the far-right candidate for next year’s Presidential elections, Marine Le Pen, is in the lead in the polls. In the past she has been critical of the euro and has championed a return to a national currency. The next few years could see waves of political change in Europe and a shift to the right in the two largest economies. This may not be a problem for FX traders today, but it is a problem for tomorrow, and it could explain why the euro is the one of the weakest currencies compared to its peers so far in 2026. What an upside payrolls surprise means for markets this month It’s a holiday-shortened week in the US, with US markets closed on Monday. This could lead to a delayed reaction to Friday’s upside surprise in US Payrolls. The bounce back in job creation in the US, the economy created 162,000 jobs, well above the 53k expected, was consistent with the view at the Federal Reserve that the US labour market is stable. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Job creation was plentiful last month and the labour force participation rate rose. This means that the Fed is right to focus on inflation, and it adds extra significance to this week’s CPI reading. CPI data to determine the September FOMC rate decision The CPI report for August is released on Friday, and the outcome of this report will determine expectations for the next FOMC meeting on 16th September. There will be a clear bias for a rate hike if the data on prices does not show progress on disinflation. The reaction to the payrolls report was sharp. Stocks and bonds fell, and US Treasury yields jumped once more. Investors also increased bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates this month. The probability of a rate hike rose to 60%, up from 50% before the report. President Trump complicates picture for Fed Complicating the picture for US interest rates is President Trump. After slowing down his attacks on Iran, the President has turned his attention to US interest rates, which is bad news for Treasuries. The President posted on social media about the great jobs report, but he said that the Fed should cut rates and not hike them. He also said that because the US economy is growing so much, the US should have the lowest rates in the world. The President is espousing unorthodox monetary policy that is reminiscent of Turkey’s President Erdogan, who called for lower interest rates to bring down high inflation in 2021, which sent the Turkish lira to a record low. Usually a strong economy and hot inflation is a reason to do the opposite of what President Trump wants. Fed independence is on the line This is the first time that the President has actively called for rate cuts since Kevin Warsh took over as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The Fed meeting on 16th September, will be a big test of its independence. We think that there is a very low chance that Warsh will acquiesce to the President, but if he does then this could seriously damage Fed credibility. The President is not the only member of the White House that is commenting on Fed rate policy. The Vice President and the Treasury Secretary have all recently urged the Fed not to raise interest rates, which is an unusual amount of pressure for government officials to put on the Fed ahead of a rate decision. Due to the pressure from the White House, could some Fed members feel it is their duty to vote for a rate hike to reaffirm their independence? If there is any sign that the Fed is under pressure from the White House, then we could see Treasuries face a steep sell off and yields surge, which would be hard for the Fed to manage. Added to this, a rate hike to counter the effects of comments from President Trump could hurt the economy down the line. Fed enters quiet period The President also threatened to stop trading with countries that have a trade surplus with the US if the Fed does not cut rates. This is a particularly unusual intervention from the President since the Federal Reserve has no control over global trade. Now that the Fed is in its quiet period ahead of the meeting later this month, we will need to wait to see how Kevin Warsh responds to the President’s comments. Warsh is likely to be asked about these comments at his next press conference, and may chose to ignore them, also, the President may backtrack on his comments. This highlights the confusing backdrop as we lead up to the next FOMC decision. The market outlook US stocks were surprisingly resilient to rising fed rate hike bets, higher energy prices and rising bond yields last week. US stock indices including the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 eked out a gain even though Brent crude oil rose by 7% last week and closed the week above $96 per barrel. This is a reminder for markets that the war in Iran is not over, and geopolitics can continue to be a source of surprise. The aftermath of the payrolls report means that the market needs to adjust to a rate hiking bias, which could knock stocks as we move towards Q4. Treasury yields were also higher, theUS 10-year yield rose 7bps to just below 4.8%, and the 30-year Treasury yield closed the week just below 5.25%. With a $40 trillion debt load, these yields are extremely uncomfortable for the US Treasury. In the past month, yields have risen sharply at the long end and the short end of the Treasury curve. The UK, Europe and Japan have also seen large increases in their bond yields, so investors need to watch where sovereign yields go next. If we get another month of large increases in yields, stocks and other markets could come under pressure. Gold fell sharply last Friday and was down 0.5% for the week overall. The yellow metal closed below $4,500, which is a psychologically important level. Gold is extending losses on Monday and is down a further 0.5%. Where gold goes next will depend on the CPI report later this week. Higher inflation and a rising probability of a Fed rate hike could trigger further declines in the gold price in the coming days. Chart 1: Gold Source: XTB Can JPY strength last? The yen will remain in focus this week, after rumoured intervention last week pushed the yen up by more than 2% on a broad basis. USD/JPY slumped after the US Treasury Secretary called on the Bank of Japan to hike interest rates in an effort to stabilize their currency. The yen had its best week in a month, as the market takes a potential monetary regime shift seriously at the BOJ. The BOJ is also expected to hike rates later this month, the question now is, will they hike by 25bps or 50bps, and will they signal that more tightening is likely? This is not usually the BOJ’s style, but if they want to get real about controlling inflation, a succession of rate hikes will be necessary. USD/JPY is down a touch today and remains below 156. After a strong earnings season, the drivers of financial markets are changing as we leave the summer behind. September is traditionally a tough month for stocks, for now, volatility is rising but it remains at low levels. Semiconductor stocks roared back to life on Friday, suggesting that the AI trade isn’t over yet. Instead, volatility is centred on bonds, commodities and FX. Shrewd investors will be wondering when stocks will follow suit. Below, we look at key event risks for the week ahead. Macro Watch 1, US CPI The last CPI report before the Fed’s September rate decision will be released this Friday. The market is expecting a pick up in price growth for August compared to July, with a 0.3-0.4% monthly gain, vs a 0.1% rise in headline and a 0.2% rise in core inflation for July. The war in Iran has kept commodity prices elevated in recent weeks, retail gas prices are high, and diesel costs in the US recently reached a record, which will add upward pressure to the CPI index. Food prices, especially beef, have also been running hot in recent weeks, which is fuelling fears that the Fed will need to hike interest rates to combat the effect of rising costs. A strong reading, especially in core inflation, will add to hawkish bets that the Fed will hike rates on the 16th September. In contrast, a softer reading would give the doves a chance to state their case at the FOMC. Since we know that energy prices are likely to rise, it is worth watching shelter prices closely. These are an important component of core inflation, and if they continue to recede, as they have done recently, then they may counter some of the effect of higher energy prices. Shelter costs could keep core inflation stable, even if headline prices rise strongly. If you are looking to this report for guidance on what the Fed does next, watch shelter costs. 2, The ECB The ECB meets this Thursday and is expected to hike interest rates by 25bps, taking the main deposit rate to 2.5%. In July, the ECB remained on hold, however this was framed as an explicit pause, which is why a rate hiking cycle is still expected. The driver for higher rates is the Middle East energy price shock. ECB rates are lower than elsewhere, so they have room to hike rates without too much economic disruption. The ECB also has less political pressure compared to the US. From the euro’s perspective, President Lagarde’s press conference will be watched closely for the tone of any forward guidance. If the ECB hikes rates this Thursday and Lagarde strikes a cautious tone, then future rate hike expectations could be scaled back and the euro may fall. However, if a rate hike is paired with hawkish forward guidance, then there is scope for euro upside. The euro rose slightly vs the USD last week, $1.1670 is short term resistance to watch for ahead of this meeting. Chart 2: EUR/USD remains range bound as we wait for the ECB Source: XTB 3, UK GDP The monthly July GDP report is released for the UK this Friday. The market is expecting a weak report, and the economy may have contracted in July. Signs suggest that the UK consumer is pulling back ahead of the ‘tough budget’ touted by the chancellor at the weekend. UK retail sales slumped 0.5% YoY in July, which adds to concerns about retail spending in the UK. Growth is expected to slow from the 0.3% rate in June, and the Bank of England is expecting a flat reading for GDP for Q3. Because consensus is skewed towards a negative print for UK GDP, watch out for an upside surprise. If the market is right, and growth comes in at -0.1% or lower, it will reinforce the dilemma facing the BOE: energy price shocks vs a weakening economy. We think that a negative growth print may reduce expectations for a BOE rate hike next week, and instead we think it will bolster expectations that the Bank could remain on hold for the rest of the year.

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Banks

September 7, 2026

Equities: Labour data weighs on stocks – Danske Bank

Danske Research notes that a strong US labour market report increased expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, pressuring global equities. The S&P 500 declined while the Stoxx 600 posted a small gain, with cyclicals outperforming and rate-sensitive sectors underperforming. The team highlights that, despite Friday’s weakness, it was broadly a cyclical week, with Financials, Communication and Technology outperforming defensives. Cyclicals outperform as defensives lag "A strong US labour market report reignited fears of a more hawkish Fed and pushed equities broadly lower on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Stoxx 600 edged 0.1% higher." "Cyclicals held up relatively well like it should given the growth implications of stronger labour market data. Industrials, semiconductors and materials outperformed. " "However, rate-sensitive areas such as biotech, software and real estate lagged and ultimately, higher rates trumped stronger growth expectations for most stocks, with roughly 65% of US stocks finishing lower on the day." "Despite Friday's weakness, this concludes a generally cyclical week. Sector moves have not been dramatic, but the direction has been consistent." "Financials, communication and technology have gained around 2% over the past week, while more defensive areas such as energy, consumer staples and healthcare have fallen 0.5-1%." "US markets are closed for Labour Day today."

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Banks

September 7, 2026

CEE FX: Hawkish pricing versus dovish banks – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy CEE data and policy calendar, with Hungary’s inflation seen edging up, the National Bank of Poland and Central Bank of Turkey expected on hold, and Romania’s inflation falling sharply on base effects. He argues markets overprice tightening in Czech Republic and Poland, seeing scope for narrower rate differentials and moderate CEE currency weakness, especially in EUR/CZK and EUR/PLN. Rates repricing to weigh on CEE FX "With the start of a new month, the CEE calendar is again packed with local events. Today brings July industrial production data from the Czech Republic and Hungary. Tomorrow, Hungary releases August inflation, which we expect to edge up from 1.2% to 1.4% after several months of disinflation." "On Wednesday, we expect the National Bank of Poland to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% and remain on hold for the rest of the year. Following the governor’s dovish remarks in July, inflation has risen over the past two months, effectively closing the door to a near-term rate move." "On Thursday, the Central Bank of Turkey is also likely to hold rates at 37%. We believe it will wait before resuming cuts after restarting repo auctions two weeks ago, which lowered the effective market rate. Finally, Romania’s August inflation is due on Friday. We expect it to fall sharply from 8.2% to 6.5% year-on-year, largely due to base effects, despite some acceleration in monthly price growth." "In the Czech Republic, the CNB blackout period starts on Thursday and we should see more headlines from the bank board in the coming days. We expect a more dovish tone versus aggressive hawkish market pricing." "Regional rates rallied last week after global relief, reducing expectations of rate hikes in the Czech Republic and Poland. Even so, markets still price around 80bp of tightening in both countries, which we view as excessive. A further unwinding of these bets should narrow interest-rate differentials and weigh moderately on CEE currencies." "We therefore see upside risks to EUR/CZK, which could move back above 24.250 unless the CNB delivers a hawkish surprise this week. EUR/PLN also appears to have reached a local low and could rise if the NBP maintains its dovish bias despite higher inflation."

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Banks

September 7, 2026

US Dollar: Volatility risks around Fed decision – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the latest US labour market report does not materially alter expectations for a September Fed rate move, leaving August US inflation as the key driver. Market pricing of roughly a 60% probability for a hike suggests divided positioning, with potential for significant USD volatility around the Fed meeting depending on how inflation prints relative to forecasts. Fed pricing keeps USD on edge "Ultimately, there is only one important conclusion to draw from Friday’s US labour market report, which delivered a surprisingly strong increase in employment: it does not stand in the way of a Fed rate hike this month, but neither does it make such a move significantly more likely. " "As we argued last week already, this week’s US inflation data for August are likely to be the key determinant of the Fed’s upcoming policy decision. Unsurprisingly, the dollar’s post-payrolls rally proved short-lived." "As for the inflation data, there is currently little room for interpretation. If the figures come in broadly in line with analysts’ expectations, markets are likely to maintain their current assessment until the Fed meeting, barring any materially different signals from FOMC officials." "At present, markets are pricing in a probability of just under 60% that the Fed will raise rates in less than two weeks. An upside inflation surprise would likely increase expectations of a rate hike further and support the US dollar, while weaker-than-expected inflation would have the opposite effect." "If, by contrast, the inflation figures push market expectations clearly in one direction or the other, the risk for an increase in volatility may initially rise ahead of the meeting, as investors would have to face the risk that the Fed ultimately disappoints those newly established expectations." "As a result, a substantial share of market participants would be caught off guard by the Fed’s eventual decision. In that case, pronounced volatility in USD exchange rates on the day of the Fed meeting would once again be likely, much as it was following the previous policy decision."

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Banks

September 7, 2026

Oil: Tanker risks support prices – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil remains supported as tensions between the US and Iran escalate in the Persian Gulf. They highlight continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz, aided by US Navy escorts, and unchanged OPEC+ quotas. Speculative net longs in ICE Brent have risen, while disruptions mean many producers stay below quota. Persian Gulf tensions underpin crude "The oil market remains well-supported with little sign of a peace between the US and Iran. The US struck several Iranian-linked tankers in response to Iran targeting US warships. Iran says it has also taken action against tankers navigating unauthorised routes, and now plans to enforce a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could put additional vessels in the Gulf of Oman at risk." "Despite the escalation, oil continues to flow. The US energy secretary said oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is averaging a little more than 9m b/d, made possible by US Navy escorts." "OPEC+ kept its output quotas unchanged for October, which comes as no surprise. The group announced increases this year, which fully unwind voluntary cuts of 1.65m b/d. However, given ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf, most members will produce well below their quota." "Given the recent flare-up between Iran and the US, it's not surprising that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent over the last reporting week. Speculators bought 37,837 lots to leave them with a net long of 261,435 lots as of last Tuesday. While fresh buying and short covering were relatively sizeable, most of the increase came from short covering." "While oil price action has been more modest with the latest developments in the Middle East, European gas prices have seen more upside. The TTF was trading almost 4% up in early morning trading today. Unfortunately, LNG has not been flowing out as much as crude oil, leaving the gas market increasingly vulnerable as we near the 2026/27 heating season."

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Banks

September 7, 2026

Euro: Range holds before key data against US Dollar – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports EUR/USD trading in a narrow 1.1610–1.1620 range after quickly reversing losses from a stronger US jobs report. They highlight a thin data calendar with United States (US) markets closed, and note that attention will shift to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a rate hike is widely expected, and to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures later in the week. Pair steadies in tight trading band "In the euro area, retail sales fell by 0.6% m/m in July (cons: 0.2%), following a small increase in June. Fuel sales weighed on the headline figure, but sales excluding fuel also declined by 0.6% m/m, returning to levels seen in Q1." "The positive growth recorded in July PMIs therefore does not appear to have been driven by private consumption. As consumers remain cautious, companies may find it harder to pass on higher energy costs, which could help explain why these pressures have not spilled over into core inflation." "In Germany, AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt was broadly in line with expectations, winning 44% but falling short of an outright majority. The result confirms AfD's momentum, though mainstream parties rule out a coalition and the direct federal impact is limited." "EUR/USD is relatively stable in a 1.1610-1.1620 range, as it quickly reversed the initial decline seen after the stronger US jobs report on Friday. " "The data calendar is thin today as the US market is closed due to Labor Day. Later this week, focus turns to the ECB meeting on Thursday, where a hike is widely expected, and the US CPI figures on Friday."

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Markets

September 7, 2026

Iron Ore Hits 5-Week High

Iron ore futures rose toward CNY 740 per ton, approaching five-week highs as elevated freight costs and expectations of pre-holiday restocking in top consumer China supported prices. Shipping costs remained elevated amid strong energy prices as the US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Middle East over the weekend, keeping supply risks high. Investors also anticipated that Chinese steel mills would rebuild iron ore inventories ahead of the National Day holidays in October, while hoping for a seasonal improvement in construction activity this month. Industry data showed average daily hot metal output, a key indicator of iron ore demand, edged higher last week after declining for two consecutive weeks. However, iron ore prices could face resistance as profit margins at Chinese steel mills continue to deteriorate.

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Markets

September 7, 2026

Palm Oil Holds Gains Ahead of Monthly Data

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,950 per tonne, extending recent gains as firmer edible oil prices on Dalian markets and higher crude oil prices lifted sentiment amid heightened concerns over a prolonged supply disruption from the Middle East. Rising El Niño risks added a bullish factor, with drier conditions threatening Southeast Asian production. Output in top grower Indonesia is projected to fall 2.9% yoy in 2027. Demand prospects also improved in India, where refiners imported record volumes of soyoil and the most palm oil in six months ahead of festivals. However, gains were capped by a weaker ringgit and a lack of direction from Chicago markets, which were closed for a public holiday. Meanwhile, ample supply remained a headwind, with Malaysian inventories at a five-month high in July. Weak exports added pressure, as cargo surveyors noted August shipments fell 6.5–14.9% from July. Traders now brace for monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board later this week.

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Markets

September 7, 2026

Copper Eases on Fed Rate Hike Concerns

Copper futures slipped to around $6.55 per pound on Monday, ending a two-day rally as stronger-than-expected US jobs data strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, weighing on the demand outlook for industrial metals. Investors also assessed rising inflation risks after oil prices extended their gains as the US and Iran exchanged strikes on ships over the weekend. Still, copper remained near record highs amid persistent concerns over supply. Analysts pointed to a recent export ban in Congo, weaker production from major producers Chile and Peru, and disruptions associated with El Nino. Data showed top producer Chile recorded its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years. The country also lowered its full-year production forecast for a second consecutive quarter and now expects output to decline 2.6%. Elsewhere, uncertainty over tariffs continues to encourage copper shipments into the US, pushing Comex inventories to record levels.

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Cryptocurrencies

September 7, 2026

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC consolidates near recent highs, ETH and XRP defend key bullish supports

Bitcoin trades around $79,800 on Monday, after gaining over 3.4% last week. Ethereum maintains a constructive bullish bias as price holds above key EMAs. XRP trades above the 200-day EMA at $1.353, defending a key long-term support level. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) maintain a constructive outlook on Monday after gaining more than 3.4%, 4% and 4.8%, respectively, last week. BTC holds steady near $80,000 while ETH and XRP show resilience and defend key support zones. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests consolidation or a mild pullback before an upside move. Bitcoin consolidates near recent highs Bitcoin price trades at $79,806 on Monday after gaining over 3.4% in the previous week. BTC maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered between roughly $70,000 and $72,700.  BTC’s price above this EMA stack suggests a sustained uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 65 points to firm but not yet extreme buying pressure, even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns negative, hinting at waning momentum within an overall positive structure. On the downside, initial support is seen around the 200-day EMA at $72,749, reinforced by the 50-day EMA just below $72,100 and the 100-day EMA near $70,274, which together form a broad demand band before deeper horizontal support at $66,500 and $62,300. On the topside, the next significant barrier aligns with the horizontal resistance at $85,000, and a daily close above this level would reopen the path toward fresh highs. In contrast, a break back through the EMA cluster would signal a deeper corrective phase within the broader uptrend. BTC/USDT daily chart Ethereum faces resistance near $2,550 mark Ethereum trades at $2,502 on Monday, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as price holds above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs clustered between roughly $2,090 and $2,190. The RSI near 65 suggests upside momentum remains in play, though the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints that the latest advance is losing some traction and could slip into consolidation before attempting fresh highs. On the downside, initial support aligns with the nearby horizontal level at $2,500, ahead of the 50-day EMA around $2,192 and the 200-day EMA close to $2,183, which together form a key demand zone if a deeper pullback unfolds. On the topside, the next notable resistance is the key $2,550 mark, ahead of the psychological $3,000 barrier, where a clear break would reopen the path toward broader continuation of the medium-term uptrend. ETH/USDT daily chart XRP defends key 200-day EMA XRP price trades at $1.407 on Monday. XRP holds a constructive bias as price extends above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, with the long-term 200-day EMA rising near $1.353 and reinforcing an underlying uptrend structure.  The RSI eases from prior overbought extremes to hover just below 60, suggesting bullish momentum is moderating but not broken. At the same time, the MACD slips marginally negative, hinting at consolidation rather than a completed top as long as price stays over the main moving average belt. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the recent opening region and the 200-day EMA cluster near $1.353, ahead of a horizontal floor at $1.300. Meanwhile, deeper pullbacks would bring the 50-day and 100-day EMA zone around the mid-$1.200s into focus before a more distant base at $1.000. On the topside, bulls face the next key hurdle at the horizontal resistance around $1.900, and a sustained break above this level would reopen the path toward higher highs within the prevailing daily uptrend. XRP/USDT daily chart

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Markets

September 7, 2026

XAG/USD holds losses near $66.00 due to Fed rate hike bets

Silver struggles as stronger US jobs data boosted expectations of an imminent September Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.1% and wage growth slowed moderately. Escalating US-Iran geopolitical tension near the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns. Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after opening at a bearish gap, remaining in negative territory and trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Silver prices remain under pressure as stronger-than-expected United States (US) employment data fuels expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, August Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 162,000, significantly outperforming the 56,000 forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, and annual wage growth slowed less than anticipated to 3.1%. Following these figures, traders rapidly priced in tighter monetary policy, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 58.3% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in September. Hammack flags need for more Fed tightening as inflation stays too high Fed’s Hammack delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.6/10 historical average, signaling a clear shift toward tighter policy rhetoric. The assertion that Fed policy is “not restrictive” and that inflation is “too high,” combined with local contacts indicating “now is time for Fed to hike,” underscores a bias toward additional rate increases and challenges any market expectation of an imminent pivot. This tone supports a stronger Dollar narrative as markets reprice the path of policy toward further tightening. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.14 points to 125.72, reinforcing that overall Fed communication remains firmly in hawkish territory according to the FXS Speechtracker. With the index well above the neutral 100 mark, the latest move suggests incremental but meaningful reinforcement of higher-for-longer rate expectations, a backdrop typically supportive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive currencies. Adding to Silver's headwinds, rising crude oil prices have stoked fears of rekindled inflationary pressures following a geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran over the weekend. The conflict intensified after the US targeted three Iranian tankers in response to missile attacks on its warships, leading Tehran to establish a new restricted zone around the Strait of Hormuz. Technical Analysis: In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.10. The near-term tone is neutral as price holds above the longer-term 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but sits just under the shorter-term nine-day EMA, hinting at consolidation after the recent advance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.70 stays slightly above neutral, suggesting modest positive momentum without entering overbought conditions. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the nine-day EMA around $66.33, and a clear break above this dynamic cap would be needed to revive a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA near $64.91; a daily close below this level would expose a deeper corrective phase, while holding above it would keep the broader constructive structure intact. XAG/USD: Daily Chart

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Markets

September 7, 2026

XAU/USD falls below $4,400 as strong US jobs data raise the prospects for Fed rate hike

Gold price slumps to around $4,395 in Monday’s early Asian session.  US NFP rose by 162K in August, stronger than expected.  US and Iran traded retaliatory attacks on ships over the weekend.  Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,395 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal extends the decline as robust US employment data boost US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets.  The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 162K in August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday. This figure followed July's increase of 21K and beat market expectations of 56K by a wide margin. The upbeat US jobs data boosted expectations that the US central bank could raise interest rates as soon as this month, denting non-yielding bullion's appeal. “Gold stumbles badly as a huge headline print, and an overall strong report, makes a September rate hike much more likely unless we get a weak CPI report," independent analyst Tai Wong said. Traders will take more cues from the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reports later this week for further clues on the Fed's policy path. Markets dialled up bets on a rate hike in September, pricing in a roughly 58.3% likelihood versus an even chance earlier in Friday’s session, according to the CME FedWatch tool.  Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East could stoke oil-driven inflation fears and contribute to the yellow metal’s downside.  Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Iran said that it targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized route through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a number of US-linked ships, in retaliation for US attacks on Iranian tankers over the weekend.  Gold rebound underpinned as Fed hike doubts grow According to Commerzbank, the latest upswing in Gold prices “reflects growing doubts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September meeting after all.” The bank notes that these doubts have “recently been fueled primarily by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller,” whose remarks have led markets to reassess the likelihood of further tightening and, in turn, helped underpin the metal’s rebound. Technical Analysis: Gold price retains a mildly bullish bias above the 100-day SMA In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish despite the recent pullback from higher highs. Price is now trading below the 20-day Bollinger mid-line, suggesting a consolidation phase within an overall uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 51 hints at neutral but stabilising momentum after overbought readings unwound. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 20-day Bollinger middle band near $4,465, with the upper Bollinger band around $4,675 acting as a farther cap if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support sits close to the latest close around $4,405, ahead of the 100-day SMA near $4,350; a deeper slide would expose the lower Bollinger band support near $4,260, where dip-buying interest could reappear.

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Energies

September 7, 2026

WTI rises to near $90.00 on escalating US-Iran conflict

WTI advances as direct strikes on tankers and naval warships trigger heightened fears of long-term energy supply disruptions. Tehran established new restricted transit zones, countering US naval blockade operations designed to safeguard shipping. Kpler data reveals Hormuz tanker traffic dropped to 10 vessels daily, confirming real physical market constraints. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gains ground after registering losses in the previous trading day, hovering around $90.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices climb following a fresh escalation of military strikes between the United States (US) and Iran, raising widespread fears of prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. The conflict intensified over the weekend when the US targeted three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks against US Navy warships. Tehran responded by declaring a new restricted zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz, stretching across part of the Persian Gulf and encompassing the US Navy's blockade line. Despite the heightened tensions, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that the American military will maintain its naval footprint in the region. This strategy aims to enforce the blockade against Iranian oil exports while securing safe passage for commercial shipping through the Strait. However, market data highlights a growing divergence between official accounts and commercial reality. Tracking from Kpler reveals that shipping traffic through Hormuz has plummeted to a multi-month low of just 10 vessels per day, directly contrasting US Navy statements about increased escort operations. This gap underscores tangible physical supply constraints in the transit route, keeping the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in global oil prices. Brent outlook clouded as Strait of Hormuz flows remain in doubt Analysts at Commerzbank stress that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz “remains unclear in many respects,” noting in particular “conflicting reports regarding how much oil is currently flowing through the strait each day.” They add that upcoming “market reports from energy agencies and China’s trade balance figures this week promise to provide some clarity,” with the data expected to shed light on both actual crude flows and underlying demand conditions.

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Energies

September 7, 2026

Oil Rises as US and Iran Exchange Fire

Crude oil rose toward $92 per barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains as the US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Middle East, fueling concerns over prolonged disruptions to energy flows from the region. The US targeted three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks on US Navy warships. In response, Tehran attacked oil tankers and other vessels linked to the US and would introduce a “restricted” maritime zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US would maintain its naval presence in the Middle East, including the blockade designed to curb Iranian oil exports and help ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through Hormuz. Fighting between the two sides resumed last week after roughly a month of relative calm, pushing oil prices about 10% higher as markets reassessed geopolitical and supply risks.

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Energies

September 7, 2026

European Gas Jumps as US-Iran Conflict Escalates

European natural gas prices jumped 4% to above €74/MWh on Monday, their highest level in more than three and a half years, amid escalating US-Iran tensions that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. Iran said it had targeted oil tankers and several US-linked vessels and plans to establish a restricted maritime zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. This followed US strikes on Iranian oil tankers, which Washington said were carried out in retaliation for Tehran’s missile attacks on US Navy warships. The continuing tit-for-tat escalation is heightening concerns that Qatari LNG shipments to Europe could be delayed even further. Europe is approaching the end of its summer storage injection period, with gas storage facilities currently around 62% full, below the five-year seasonal average. This increases the risk of tighter competition for supplies, leaving the region more exposed to price spikes during the colder months.

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Energies

September 7, 2026

Heating Oil Hovers Near Record Highs

US heating oil prices hovered near $4.60 per gallon, remaining close to the record high of $4.73 touched on September 2 and about 98% higher than a year earlier amid concerns over increasingly tight supplies. EIA data showed that distillate fuel stocks rose by 796 thousand barrels in the week ended August 28 but remained 14% below the five-year average for this time of year. This comes as demand is expected to rise as agricultural states enter their harvest and planting seasons, while the approaching winter heating season could put further pressure on distillate supplies. Reflecting the market's tightness, average US diesel prices have reached a record high. The market has remained constrained by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as the US and Iran continued to exchange fire, while ongoing disruptions to Russian refining capacity and an extended Russian diesel export ban further limited global distillate supplies.

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Three Markets to Watch Next Week

The past week brought a major surprise to the markets in the form of the US labour market report (NFP). An increase in employment of 162,000 jobs (against a forecast of just 55,000) drastically altered expectations regarding the outlook for interest rates in the US. This turn of events strengthened the dollar and put immediate pressure on commodities. As we enter the new week, attention is shifting to the next key drivers: central bank decisions, inflation figures and corporate earnings reports, which will shape volatility in the coming days. In light of this, it is worth keeping an eye on markets such as the US100 (Nasdaq 100 futures), EURUSD and GOLD (Gold). US100 (Nasdaq 100) The US technology index managed to recoup some of its losses from the previous week, despite mixed market performance following the release of the NFP report. Nevertheless, the data shows that the US economy remains strong. However, Thursday’s financial reports will be the real test of this optimism. The release of results by Oracle (with a forecast earnings per share of US$1.75) and Adobe will be key. In particular, it is worth paying attention to the value of Oracle’s contracted but not yet fulfilled orders and its forecasts for the coming quarters, as the company acts as a barometer for spending on cloud computing and artificial intelligence. On Friday, tech company valuations will be influenced by the US CPI inflation reading. EURUSD The main currency pair will start the coming week with diminished hopes that interest rates will remain unchanged. With very strong labour market data and high oil prices, the balance is clearly tipping towards a potential rate rise. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its decision on interest rates. The market currently prices in a rate rise as almost certain. This decision will send a clear signal that inflation in Europe is still viewed as too high. However, the tone of the press conference and the ECB’s new economic forecasts will be crucial for the euro exchange rate. As for the dollar, Friday’s CPI inflation reading (forecast: 3.4% y/y) will determine the direction; following the strong labour market report, this has gained significance in assessing the Fed’s next moves. GOLD (Gold) It seemed that gold was set for a marked rebound this week, but rising expectations of a rate rise in the United States could lead to further short-term pressure on the precious metal. Nevertheless, investors’ attention, aside from US economic data (primarily inflation), will focus on ongoing problems in the US bond market. Despite the increased risk of interest rate rises, the market is seeing growing fiscal problems in the US, as illustrated by the continued high levels of gold holdings in ETFs and the further unwinding of long positions in futures contracts on the US and Chinese markets.

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Lululemon Under Fire: Burry Bets on the Fallen Giant, but the Market Says “No”

Key takeaways Lululemon shares have fallen by 20 per cent following the worst results in the company’s history. Michael Burry, the legendary investor from *The Big Short*, has announced aggressive buying. Who is right? Lululemon Athletica (LULU) shares fell nearly 20% on Friday, hitting their lowest level in eight years, after the Canadian athletic apparel maker cut its annual forecast for the second time this year and reported its first-ever simultaneous decline in comparable sales across all key markets. The company, which just two years ago was a Wall Street darling, is now trading around $100 per share — 81% below its all-time high. Results That Spooked the Market In the second fiscal quarter of 2026, Lululemon's revenue fell 4.3% year-over-year to $2.42 billion, disappointing analysts who had expected $2.46 billion. Comparable sales (comp sales) contracted by 9% — significantly worse than the consensus estimate of a 6.2% decline. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.06 after tariff refund adjustments, beating expectations ($1.79), but the market ignored the positive margin surprise, focusing instead on what really hurts: customers are turning away from the brand. North America, the company's largest market, saw revenue decline 8%, with comparable sales plunging 12%. Mainland China — until recently the growth engine with +24% momentum a year earlier — shocked with an 8% decline on a constant currency basis, versus market expectations of nearly 8% growth. That's a sequential collapse of 2,100 basis points in just one quarter. Leggings No Longer Sell Themselves Interim CEO Meghan Frank acknowledged on the earnings call that global sales of women's leggings — accounting for over 20% of the company's revenue — fell 20% in the quarter. New collections are meeting with an "inconsistent" response from customers, and key product categories are losing their appeal. It's worth noting that women's leggings, the company's flagship product, account for over 20% of total revenue (it used to be even more when the company focused exclusively on this category). "The overall response to our product launches remains inconsistent, and we've continued to see pressure on the brand in both of our largest markets," Frank said. Management pointed to several factors weakening the brand: negative social media buzz surrounding the proxy battle with founder Chip Wilson, the Texas Attorney General's investigation into PFAS substances in the company's products, and in China — a controversial marketing campaign on the Great Wall featuring a Japanese taiko drum, which triggered a wave of criticism among Chinese consumers. Guidance Slashed to the Bone Lululemon drastically lowered its expectations for the full fiscal year 2026: Revenue: $10.35–$10.50 billion (a 5–7% decline), down from previous guidance of $11.0–$11.15 billion Earnings per share: $9.48–$9.73, down from previous guidance of $10.95–$11.15 Q3: revenue expected to decline 10–11%, with EPS of just $0.93–$0.98 — 60% below the market consensus of $2.37 At least 12 brokerages cut their price targets on Friday. Burry Goes Against the Grain Standing in stark contrast to the market panic is Michael Burry — the investor famous for betting against subprime mortgages in 2008, immortalized in the film "The Big Short." Burry announced that Lululemon is his largest portfolio position and pledged to buy aggressively below $100. "Lululemon is the trickster in my portfolio. This time the trickster is my largest position, and it does seem determined to take me where mermaids fear to tread," Burry wrote on his blog, drawing a comparison to his earlier investment in Tailored Brands, which ended in the company's bankruptcy. Burry also suggested that a potential long-term scenario for Lululemon could be a private equity takeover — which, for a company with a strong brand but weak operational management, would not be unprecedented in the industry. New CEO Walks Into a Fire New CEO Heidi O'Neill will officially take the reins next week, stepping into the role at one of the most challenging moments in the company's history. Analysts expect her to quickly present a turnaround plan, but warn that rebuilding a premium brand is a process measured in quarters, not weeks. "Lulu is a powerful brand but an overstretched one," said Simeon Siegel of Guggenheim. "It needs to return to what made it special, but that's hard — because appealing to everyone means moving past what made it so specialized." Morningstar analyst David Swartz expects a slowdown in store expansion, cost cuts, and a possible "operational realignment." The company also needs to win back customers who have defected to competitors — brands like Alo Yoga and Skims. Valuation Is Tempting, but Risk Remains At its current price, Lululemon trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 11.5x — well below Nike (20.8x) and Adidas (13.4x). For value investors like Burry, that's a signal of opportunity. For the market — it's a signal that something is fundamentally wrong. The key question is: is the decline in comparable sales a temporary problem fixable by new management, or the beginning of a permanent erosion of premium brand value? When a premium brand starts posting negative comps, the market begins pricing in a permanent decline in brand value. That's a much harder narrative to reverse. The stock has virtually never faced a selloff wave of this momentum in its history. The $100 per share price was last seen in 2018. Source: xStation

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Daily Summary: “Heat” of the NFP Print Cools Market Sentiment

• NFP report as the main driver of market volatility. The U.S. economy created 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, tripling the market consensus of approximately 55,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month. The surprisingly strong data pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting to approximately 58%, up from just under 50% the day before. Two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest level since January 2025, and investors faced the paradox where good economic news became bad news for markets. • Trump vs. the Fed and new trade threats. President Donald Trump demanded an immediate interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve shortly after the release of the labor market data, arguing that a strong economy means better creditworthiness for the country. In a post on his Truth Social platform, he issued an unprecedented ultimatum: if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh does not cut rates, Trump will block trade with countries against which the U.S. runs a trade deficit. Markets treated these remarks more as verbal pressure than a real policy announcement, focusing instead on macroeconomic fundamentals. Economists point out the paradox of this threat, as cutting off trade would trigger a supply shock and an inflation spike, which would force the Fed to tighten monetary policy even further. • Geopolitical tensions drive energy prices higher. A renewed escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent crude toward its strongest weekly gain since July, with prices holding near $90 per barrel. The price of diesel in the United States hit a record $5.85 per gallon, representing a nearly 60% year-over-year increase. Conflicts in Ukraine and around Iran are destroying refining capacity, triggering a global supply crisis for petroleum products. The high price of diesel, which is an input cost for transportation, agriculture, and logistics, poses a serious pro-inflationary risk that could force the Fed to act regardless of other data. • Macro data confirm the strength of the U.S. economy, but inflation raises concerns. The manufacturing PMI came in at 54.6 points in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion, while the services index rose to 55.4 points with a very strong business activity index at 61.7 points. At the same time, the ISM manufacturing prices index remained at an alarmingly high level of 71.1 points, and price pressures in services reached their highest level in nearly four years. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that his September decision would depend primarily on inflation data, and that a renewed acceleration in price growth could lead him to support a rate hike. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries approached approximately 4.8% this week, reflecting a growing premium for fiscal and inflationary risk. • U.S. indices under pressure following the labor market report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 258 points, or 0.5%, heading toward a weekly loss of around 0.3%. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% during the session, although it maintained a slight weekly gain of 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite also pulled back 0.3%, but was up 0.4% on the week. Investors could not celebrate the strong employment data, as it increased the risk of further monetary policy tightening by the Fed. • European and Asian indices in mixed sentiment. Japan's JP225 stood out with a 1.52% gain, Poland's W20 rose 1.22%, while China's CHN.cash added 1.16%. European indices performed more weakly, with Spain's SPA35 rising 0.22%, while Germany's DE40 was virtually flat and Italy's ITA40 lost 0.40%. Volkswagen shares jumped 6% after the company announced plans to cut 50,000 jobs as part of its "Future Plan 2030" transformation program in response to tariff pressures and competition from China. • Lululemon in a historic selloff, Tesla disappoints with Cybercab. Lululemon Athletica shares plunged nearly 20% to their lowest level in eight years after the company cut its annual forecasts for the second time this year and reported the first-ever simultaneous decline in comparable sales across all key markets, including a 12% drop in North America and a surprising 8% decline in China. Sales of its flagship women's leggings, accounting for over 20% of revenue, fell 20% in the quarter. Tesla lost 6% after the long-awaited Cybercab robotaxi presentation disappointed investors with a lack of new information on pricing, production timeline, and regulations, while CEO Elon Musk did not appear at the closed event in Austin. On the positive side, DocuSign shares rose after better-than-expected quarterly results and raised full-year guidance. • Dollar strengthens, yen's outlook uncertain. The USDIDX dollar index gained 0.14% following the strong NFP report, and USDJPY rose 0.16% to 156.08, reflecting growing expectations for a rate hike in the U.S. The Japanese yen, despite strengthening significantly during the week on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, may weaken after the actual decision in a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, according to currency strategists. The euro and pound weakened slightly against the dollar, with EURUSD falling 0.09% to 1.1613 and GBPUSD dropping 0.06% to 1.3513. The Polish zloty weakened slightly, with USDPLN declining 0.06% to 3.7123 and EURPLN losing 0.19% to 4.3112. • Gold and silver retreat after strong labor market data. Gold fell 1.22% to $4,417.90 per ounce, heading toward its second consecutive weekly decline, and during the session hit a low of $4,370, representing a more than 2% weekly loss. Silver dropped even more sharply, losing 1.66% to $65.81 per ounce, while shares of mining companies such as Kinross, Franco-Nevada, and Eldorado Gold fell more than 3.5%. Brent crude pulled back 0.16% to $95.64 per barrel, and WTI lost 0.83% to $90.90, although on a weekly basis both grades were heading for clear gains driven by tensions surrounding Iran. Natural gas gained 0.99% to $2.95, and record diesel prices in the U.S. remain a key inflationary risk factor for the entire economy. • Cryptocurrencies remained in the shadow of traditional markets. Major cryptocurrencies were not in the spotlight on a day dominated by the labor market report and its implications for Fed monetary policy. Rising expectations for an interest rate hike and a stronger dollar traditionally act as negative factors for digital assets. The attention of cryptocurrency market participants is now turning to upcoming inflation data, which will determine the further direction of Fed policy and could decide the short-term sentiment across the entire risky asset segment.

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Banks

September 5, 2026

Malaysian Ringgit: BNM hawkish tilt supports MYR – Commerzbank

Commerzbank highlights that Bank Negara Malaysia kept the OPR at 2.75% but shifted to a more hawkish bias, removing language that policy is "appropriate" and signalling vigilance on cost pressures. Strong growth and benign inflation allow patience, yet the bank appears to prepare markets for a possible hike later this year or early 2027, with USD/MYR seen in a 4.00–4.07 range. Hawkish BNM stance underpins MYR "Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 2.75% yesterday, as widely expected, but the statement contained a distinctly more hawkish tilt. The policy bias appears to have shifted from neutral towards tightening, although an imminent hike is not on the horizon." "BNM removed the description of the current monetary-policy stance as "appropriate", which had appeared in every statement since September 2025, and instead said the current stance was "consistent with" price stability and sustainable growth. It also dropped July's assessment that overall price pressures would remain contained and said it would "remain vigilant to cost pressures and domestic demand conditions."" "The shift reflects stronger-than-expected growth and growing concern that elevated global commodity prices stemming from the Middle East conflict could eventually feed through into domestic prices and wages. With inflation currently low and government fuel subsidies cushioning the energy-price shock, BNM can afford to wait. However, it appears to be preparing the market for a possible hike later this year or in early 2027." "Growth remains strong, with GDP expanding 6.0% yoy in Q2 and 5.7% in H1, supported by stronger-than-expected exports, particularly technology-related demand, alongside resilient household spending and investment. BNM now expects 2026 GDP growth of around 5%, near the top of its previous 4-5% forecast range, and expects growth to remain resilient in 2027, supported by electronics and semiconductor industries, technology exports, tourism, investment, and stable labour-market conditions." "Inflation remains relatively benign, with headline and core inflation averaging 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively, in the first seven months of 2026. BNM is projecting headline and core inflation at 1.5-2.5% and 1.8–2.3% for this year, respectively." "USD/MYR was just slightly lower yesterday after BNM’s meeting, down 0.1% to 4.0420. The slightly more hawkish BNM tone and strong growth backdrop could provide some support for MYR. USD/MYR has traded between the 3.88-4.16 range this year, and we look for the 4.00-4.07 range for now."

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Banks

September 5, 2026

Indonesian Rupiah: Two-way risks around support levels – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that USD/IDR has pulled back as a softer Dollar and lower UST yields support the Indonesian Rupiah. He highlights Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti’s emphasis on a stability-first approach, prioritizing Rupiah and macro stability while still supporting growth. Wong sees near-term support for IDR but flags elevated Oil prices and high global yields as constraints. Stability-first stance supports Rupiah "Speaking at the Sarasehan 100 Ekonom Indonesia in Jakarta on Thursday, BI Governor Destry Damayanti reinforced the stability-first message she had set out earlier in the week, stressing that policy cannot be viewed solely through the domestic inflation lens given the “higher-for-longer” global rate environment and the need to keep Indonesian assets attractive to foreign investors." "Her remarks were consistent with earlier signals of policy continuity, with rupiah and macro stability remaining key priorities even as BI continues to support growth through its broader policy mix." "Together with the pullback in UST yields and softer USD, this should provide some near-term support to IDR, although elevated oil prices and still-high global yields remain constraints." "Immediate support at 17620 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). If broken, opens way for next support at 17444 (50% fibo). Resistance at 17710 (100 DMA), 17800 levels (21 DMA)." "USD/IDR closed at 17660. Momentum on daily chart is flat while RSI fell."

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Banks

September 5, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Services PMI rebound keeps PBoC cautious – Commerzbank

Commerzbank says China’s August Services PMI rebound highlights some resilience in private-sector activity, but weak retail sales, soft inflation and higher unemployment still point to fragile domestic demand. The stronger PMI reduces the urgency for immediate PBoC easing, while leaving room for further support if growth weakens into year-end. Fragile demand keeps PBoC easing options open "China's private services sector activity rebounded more strongly than expected in August, offering a bright spot in an otherwise subdued domestic demand picture. The RatingDog China Services PMI rose to 51.4 (Bloomberg consensus: 50.6) vs 50.4 in July." "The print marks a recovery from a near two-year low in July and pushed the composite PMI to 52.1 from 50.8. The result stands in contrast to the official non-manufacturing PMI, which remained unchanged at 49.0 in August." "The divergence between the private and official gauges warrants attention. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which captures a broader universe of state-linked service providers and includes construction, remained at 49.0, weighed down by a continued slump in construction activity." "The August services PMI rebound, while encouraging, does not materially alter the broader policy calculus for the PBoC. Retail sales growth of just 0.6% yoy in July and a surveyed jobless rate that ticked up to 5.2% indicate that the consumption recovery remains uneven and fragile." "With CPI running well below target and PPI softening, the PBoC retains room to ease further if growth conditions deteriorate into year-end. The services PMI print reduces the urgency of immediate action but does not close the door on RRR cuts or targeted lending facility expansions in the coming months."

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Banks

September 5, 2026

Malaysia: Hawkish pause keeps options open – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng notes that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% while dropping language that the current level is appropriate. DBS expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026 but sees risks tilted towards a one-off policy normalisation. BNM holds but signals flexibility "Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% on September 3, extending its pause for a seventh consecutive decision." "We maintain our view for BNM to stay on hold for the remainder of 2026, given contained inflation amid a resilient economy, but see the balance of risk tilted towards a possible one-off policy normalisation." "In its monetary policy statement, BNM notably flagged two key areas that warrant vigilance in assessing the inflation outlook." "First, policymakers will continue to evaluate the still fluid and unresolved conflict in the Middle East, which will likely keep global commodity prices, particularly energy prices, elevated relative to a year ago, and generate upward cost pressures through the supply-side shock." "Second, the authorities will monitor whether strong economic growth (potentially around 5% in 2026 and resilient in 2027), partly driven by robust artificial intelligence-related tailwinds, translates into stronger demand-pull price pressures due to rising wage growth. Thus far, the capital-intensive nature of this expansion has limited spillovers to domestic inflation." "The door is now open for a normalisation of July 2025’s 25bps insurance OPR cut in subsequent meetings if incoming economic activity data and external developments evolve favourably and inflationary pressures rise."

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Banks

September 5, 2026

Indian Rupee: Dollar inflows support INR but impulse may fade – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that strong foreign-currency inflows linked to the RBI’s special measures have bolstered the Indian Rupee (INR) and strengthened the central bank’s FX buffer. However, with the FCNR(B) window now closed, the exceptional near-term dollar supply is expected to fade, potentially leading to more two-way RBI management. Wong adds that USD/INR remains under bearish pressure, though oversold conditions may slow the pace of decline, with support at 94.30 and 94.15. RBI-backed inflows support INR, but near-term dollar supply may fade "USD/INR gapped down in the open yesterday. It was reported that RBI’s special measures attracted US$136.4bn of foreign-currency inflows, including US$127.2bn through FCNR(B) deposits." "The scale of the inflows materially strengthens the RBI’s FX buffer, but has also pushed banking system liquidity to a record INR9.7tn and lifted its forward dollar liabilities to around US$137bn." "With the FCNR(B) window now closed (as of 31 Aug), the exceptional near-term dollar supply should fade." "Potentially, there may be more two-way management from here, with the RBI potentially using periods of INR strength to absorb USD or reduce its forward exposure rather than allowing appreciation to run unchecked." "USD/INR closed at 94.50 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI fell to oversold conditions. Moderation in pace of decline is not ruled out." "Support at 94.30 levels, 94.15 (Jun low). Resistance at 96.74 (76.4% fibo), 95.10 (61.8% fibo retracement of Jun low to Jul high)."

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Banks

September 5, 2026

Eurozone: Inflation above target into 2027 – Nordea

Nordea expects Eurozone inflation dynamics to stay persistent, with headline inflation projected above the ECB’s target at least until spring 2027. They see recent data as slightly weaker than the ECB’s June projections, partly due to soft food prices, but anticipate only modest downward revisions. Core inflation is projected to remain above 2% through 2028, supporting further ECB rate hikes. Inflation seen persistent and above target "Beyond energy, recent headline inflation data have come in slightly weaker than the ECB projected in June, partly because of weak food price inflation." "We therefore expect small downward revisions to the 2026 and 2027 headline inflation forecasts, although the adjustments are likely to be modest." "Inflation should nevertheless remain above the ECB's target at least until spring 2027." "Core inflation developments have been broadly in line with the June projections, and we therefore expect the projected core inflation profile to remain largely unchanged." "This would imply that core inflation remains above 2% through the end of 2028, which, in our view, supports the case for further ECB rate hikes."

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Week Ahead – Sep 7th

Signs of tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf will be monitored after the outbreak of strikes between Iran and the US, prolonging the shock to energy supply from the region. The US will publish consumer and producer inflation rates, the last major releases before the Federal Reserve's September decision. Other key data includes Michigan consumer sentiment and existing home sales. In turn, Canada and Brazil will publish inflation rates. Meanwhile, the ECB will decide on interest rates, Germany will unveil industrial production, and the UK will release monthly GDP data. In Asia, a busy week will feature goods trade flows from China following renewed tariffs by the US, in addition to fresh CPI figures. Also, Japan is set to post its PPI, current account, and wages aggregates. Lastly, trade data from Taiwan could offer hints on AI infrastructure demand.

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Energies

September 5, 2026

Gasoline Extends Gains

US gasoline futures rose above $3.15 a gallon, extending gains for a second session amid tightening fuel supply. Elevated tensions between the US and Iran remain an upward pressure, threatening further constraints to production and supply. Adding to the pressure, persistent attacks from Ukraine in Russian refineries pushed runs to multi-year lows. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories fell 1.173 million barrels in the week ending August 28th, reflecting continued drawdowns in recent weeks while US refiners are largely out of capacity to boost further production, with facilities in Midwest operating at over 103% capacity and some delaying maintenance to keep production elevated. On September 4th, the US national average regular gasoline edged higher to $4.15 a gallon, its highest price ever for September, according to AAA. Earlier in the week, President Trump met with fuel refiners in an effort to bring down gasoline prices, although no measures were announced.

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Energies

September 5, 2026

Crude Oil Posts Strongest Weekly Gain Since July

Crude oil traded around $91.2 a barrel on Friday and was up more than 9% for the week, marking its strongest weekly performance since mid-July, as the war in the Middle East continued with little prospects of peace. Iran and the US exchanged missile strikes this week, while Israel’s defense minister threatened “crippling” attacks on Iran’s infrastructure, including energy facilities. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said the US does not plan to hold peace talks with Iran until it stops attacking ships in Hormuz, adding to upward pressure on oil prices as Iran signals its determination to maintain a hard-line response to the latest US strikes. The EU has formally joined the US-led sanctions campaign against Iran, while South Korea said it is considering a military role. The rally could lose momentum if shipments through the Strait increase. Reports on Iraqi oil exports indicate an average of 2.35 million barrels per day in August, mostly shipped through southern routes.

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Energies

September 5, 2026

Crude Oil Prices Push Higher Ahead of Holiday Weekend

October WTI crude oil (CLV26) closed up +0.18 (+0.20%) on Friday, and October RBOB gasoline (RBV26) closed up +0.0797 (+2.54%). Crude oil and gasoline prices recovered from early losses and settled higher on Friday.  Pre-weekend short covering lifted crude prices on Friday ahead of the three-day US Labor Day holiday weekend.  Crude oil initially moved lower on Friday amid no news of military action between the US and Iran.  Also, Saudi Aramco’s unexpected decision to keep the price of its crude unchanged for Asian customers for October delivery weighed on crude prices. Crude prices were pressured on Friday after Saudi Aramco kept the price of its Arab Light crude for October delivery to Asian customers unchanged, versus expectations of a $5 a barrel increase. Crude prices rose to a 6-week high on Thursday amid signs of tighter global oil supplies.  Data compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa showed that Saudi Arabia's Aug crude exports dropped to about 3 million bpd, the lowest amount in 9 years.  Also, hostilities have escalated this week between the US and Iran, dampening hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened anytime soon.    Gains in crude oil prices are contained on signs that crude flows are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz.  President Trump said Thursday that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz and, “We’re taking out 30, 40 boats a night, and a lot of oil is coming out of there.” Also, CNN reported that the US military escorted 40 vessels carrying 18 million bbl of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, easing supply concerns. President Trump recently said that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports is putting pressure on the country, and he has no timeline for resolving the US-Iran conflict.  Crude prices also have support on concerns that Israel could be dragged back into the US-Iran conflict. Israeli Defense Minister Katz said on Thursday that an Iranian attack on Israel would free Israel from any existing restrictions in a response against the regime in Iran.  Israel has ramped up attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, dampening the prospects of ending hostilities in the Middle East and a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  In addition, Israel has struck Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, while the Yemen- based Houthis have attacked ships in the Red Sea. In a supporting factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, released on August 12, that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, even as oil demand is taking a hit from the war and high prices.  The IEA said global oil inventories will fall in Q3 at twice the previously estimated rate because of ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, curbing Russian crude production and exports.   According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure knocked Russia’s crude production in July to 8.89 million bpd, the lowest in six years, according to secondary source estimates published by OPEC.  Meanwhile, Reuters reported last Friday that Russia’s gasoline production fell to about 80,000 tons a day in August, only 70% of domestic demand, leading to shortages throughout the country. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September.  The group has now restored all of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  The production increases by OPEC+ might prove difficult to achieve amid renewed US-Iran military attacks in the region.  OPEC's July crude production rose by +1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd.  Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +7.1% w/w to 107.58 million bbl in the week ended August 28. Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of Aug 28 were +0.7% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -14.0% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending Aug 28 rose +0.1% w/w to 13.862 million bpd, matching the record high first posted in November 2025. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended September 4 rose by +2 to 449 rigs, modestly below the 1.25-year high of 455 rigs from the week of August 14.

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Energies

September 5, 2026

Nat-Gas Prices Gain on Hotter US Weather Forecasts

October Nymex natural gas (NGV26) on Friday closed up +0.062 (+2.13%). Nat-gas prices settled higher on Friday but remained below Thursday’s 1.75-month nearest-futures high.  Nat-gas prices rose on Friday as US weather forecasts shifted to hotter for mid-September, potentially boosting nat-gas demand from electricity providers as air-conditioning use increases. According to weather forecaster Vaisala, forecasts shifted warmer across the western half of the US for September 9-13 and trended slightly hotter across the central and southern US for September 14-18.  US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 114.3 bcf/day (+5.1% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 80.6 bcf/day (+7.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 19.1 bcf/day (-1.8% w/w), according to BNEF. As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 29 rose +12.56% y/y to 96,357 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending August 29 rose +2.63% y/y to 4,375,966 GWh. As a bearish factor, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on August 11 projected that US nat-gas storage levels will swell to 3,985 bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average.  On Monday, the EIA raised its 2027 US dry natural gas production estimate to 116.0 bcf/day from 115.3 bcf/day projected in July. A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand.  Thursday's weekly EIA report supported nat-gas prices, showing a +30 bcf increase in US nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 28, below expectations of +33 bcf and below the 5-year weekly average of +37 bcf.  As of August 28, nat-gas inventories were down -1.8% y/y and +5.2% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of September 2, gas storage in Europe was 66% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 83% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended September 4 fell by -2 to 130 rigs, just below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Coffee Prices Consolidate Above Thursday’s Lows

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed up +0.25 (+0.08%) on Friday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed up +56 (+1.66%). Coffee prices settled higher on Friday, consolidating this week’s losses.  On Thursday, arabica coffee dropped to a 1-month low and robusta fell to a 3-month low.  Coffee prices have sold off sharply over the past week on the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to add more supply to the market.  Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as space fills up, suggesting farmers holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to increase coffee sales as storage space dwindles.  Bigger coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, are also weighing on robusta prices.  Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported Wednesday that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Aug) rose by +13.7% y/y to 1.33 MMT.  Above-normal rainfall in Brazil may benefit flowering for next year’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 8.9 mm of rain, or 127% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 30 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 223,712 bags on Thursday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots on Wednesday. Last Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.75-month high and robusta posted a 3-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  Safras & Mercado reported on Monday that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% completed as of August 26, behind 100% last year and the 5-year average of 98%. Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 96% complete, behind last year's 99%.  Also, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported Wednesday that 91.9% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 28, up 4 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 94.9% a year earlier. Coffee prices also have support from the devastating earthquake last month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report on August 13 quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Cocoa Prices Settle Higher on Pre-Weekend Short Covering

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +14 (+0.23%) on Friday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed up +4 (+0.09%). Cocoa prices posted modest gains on Friday on some pre-weekend short covering as prices consolidated above Thursday’s 1-week lows.  On Thursday, cocoa prices fell to 1-week lows amid signs of sufficient short-term cocoa supplies.  On Wednesday, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving the market better prepared to manage risks than it did during the 2023/24 El Niño weather event that drove cocoa prices to record highs. Also on Wednesday, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported that the Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, up +30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier.  Larger cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast are bearish for prices after Tuesday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 30, 2026), up +19% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,436,742 bags on Friday. Cocoa prices have recently strengthened, with NY cocoa posting an 11-month high on Monday and London cocoa posting an 11-month high on Tuesday.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices.  Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins this month.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  On July 21, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Sugar Prices Pressured as Supply Risks Ease

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed unchanged on Friday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -3.50 (-0.66%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Friday and have been under pressure the last two sessions amid speculation that India will import less sugar than initially expected.  This week, the Indian government reduced the sugar dealer stock-holding limit to 200 MT from 400 MT, effective Sep 15 through Nov 20, to curb hoarding and boost domestic availability.  The action will help push more sugar stockpiles onto the market, potentially reducing India's need to import sugar.      On Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 16.75-month high, and London sugar posted a 1-week high on the outlook for a global deficit.  On Tuesday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT after a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Thursday projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  Also, the European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said last Thursday that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT. On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported Friday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 13% below normal as of September 4, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Cotton Eased Lower into Labor Day Weekend

Cotton futures posted front month losses of 12 to 94 points and deferreds up 2 to 68 points, as December fell 505 points on the week.  Crude oil was down 8 cents per barrel on the day, with the US dollar index up $0.240. The market will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. CFTC data showed managed money closing in on a record net long in cotton futures and options as of Tuesday, raising the position by 12,135 contracts to 107,976 contracts.  Export Sales has the total export business for 2026/27 upland cotton at 4.36 million RB, which is already up 19% from the same week last year. That is 38% of the USDA export projection and lags the 45% 5-year average.  The Cotlook A index was down 250 points on Thursday at 98.25. ICE certified cotton stocks were unchanged on September 3, with the certified stocks level at 63,092 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by another 240 points on Thursday to 73.92 cents/lb. Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 82.42, down 94 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 86.33, down 12 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 88.62, down 18 points

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Cattle Face Some Pressure Ahead of the Long Weekend

Live cattle futures posted losses of 52 cents to $1.40 on Friday, though October held up $1.22 for the week. Cash trade saw light action this week with sales ranging from 218-220, with a few up to $222. Feeder cattle futures saw mixed trade, with contracts down $1.02 to 85 cents higher. September was up $3.92 this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up 53 cents on September 3 to $328.80. The market will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed managed money slashing another 9,527 contracts from their net long in live cattle futures and options, taking it to 47,914 contracts by Tuesday. In feeder cattle, specs added 1,213 contracts to their net long, at 7,508 contracts as of 9/1. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Friday afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel widening to $20.30. Choice boxes were down 73 cents at $376.17, with Select $5.15 higher to $355.87. USDA estimated the weekly Federally inspected cattle slaughter at 526,000 head, down 16,000 head from the previous week. Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $212.950, down $1.350, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $214.725, down $1.400, Feb 27 Live Cattle  closed at $216.575, down $1.150, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $324.825, down $1.025, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $320.150, down $0.950, Nov 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $314.725, down $0.575,

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Wheat Bulls Take Money Off the Table Ahead of the Holiday Weekend

The wheat complex is showing money flow come out ahead of the long weekend, the three exchanges facing pressure. Chicago SRW contracts were down 20 to 21 ½ cents on Friday, with December dropping back 50 cents this week.  KC HRW futures were 11 ¾ to 15 cents lower at the close, with December slipping back 42 cents from last Friday’s close. MPLS spring wheat was 19 ½ to 22 cents in the red on Friday, with December down 24 ¼ cents this week. The market will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. A US envoy is expected to visit Russia over the weekend to discuss options for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine Commitment of Traders data showed managed money flipping back to a net long of 14,654 contracts in CBT wheat futures and options the week of September 1, a move of 28,825 contracts. Spec funds were adding to their KC wheat net long by 6,222 contracts to 50,284 contracts.  Export Sales data from Thursday showed US wheat export commitments for 2026/27 at 8.66 MMT, which was down 31% from the same period last year. That is also 41% of the USDA export projection and lags the 49% 5-year average pace. Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.16, down 20 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.34, down 20 1/4 cents, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.86 3/4, down 28 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.02 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.20, down 39 3/4 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.45, down 20 1/2 cents,

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Soybeans Correct Lower into the Long Weekend

Soybeans posted Friday losses of 6 ½ to 12 ½ cents, as November saw a 21 ¾ cent gain on the week. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was down 6 1/4 cents at $12.51 3/4. Soymeal futures were mixed as contracts were down $1.90 to 20 cents higher on the Friday session, with October up $5.70 this week. Soy Oil was 29 to 81 points lower, as October fell 193 points since last Friday. The market will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. USDA reported private export sales of 250,600 MT to unknown destinations during the reporting period this morning for 2026/27 shipment. That took the weekly total of announced sales to 939,600 MT to both unknown and China. The weekly CFTC report indicated managed money increasing their net long in soybean futures and options by 42,929 contracts to a near record 241,183 contracts, mainly via new longs. Specs in soybean meal were reported at their largest recorded net long of 158,741 contracts as of Tuesday, a shift of 61,705 contracts.  Export Sales data has old crop bean commitments at 41.86 MMT, down 18% from the same week last year. That is 101% of the USDA export projection. Sales for new crop have accumulated to 16.28 MMT, which is now more than double the same week last year and already 36% of USDA’s projection. Brazil soybean shipments were pegged at 9.81 MMT during August according to trade ministry data. That was down from July, but still 5.17% above the August 2025. Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $12.93 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents, Nearby Cash  was $12.51 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $13.09 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents, Jan 27 Soybeans  closed at $13.25, down 6 1/2 cents,

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Markets

September 5, 2026

Corn Bulls Take Money Off the Table Ahead of the Three-Day Weekend

Corn futures slipped lower ahead of the long weekend, with contracts fractionally to 4 cents in the red, as December was just a tick higher over the course of the week. Money flow out ahead of the holiday weekend was likely a factor. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 4 cents at $4.91 1/2. The market will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money exploding to their largest reported net long in corn futures and options as of September 1 at 431,062 contracts. That was an increase of 54,549 contracts via shorts exiting and longs increasing. USDA Export Sales data from Thursday shows old crop export commitments at 86.93 MMT, which is 24% above the same week last year. That is 101% of the USDA export projection and inline with average. New crop corn export commitments are at 14.443 MMT, which is now 30.9% above the same time last year. That is 17.4% of the current USDA number for 2026/27. Brazilian export data was released on Friday, with a total of 4.655 MMT of corn shipped in August. That was well above the previous month but down 32.03% from the 2025. Sep 26 Corn  closed at $5.12, down 3 1/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $4.91 1/2, down 4 cents, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $5.36 3/4, down 4 cents, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $5.52 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

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Forex Trading

September 4, 2026

Trade of The Day – USD/ZAR

Facts US core CPI inflation fell to its lowest level since February (2.5%) in July. The 3-month annualised average fell to 1.6%. The August report is scheduled for publication on 11 September. The market-implied probability of a Fed interest rate hike in September increased to 60% following the release of the NFP report. The price of gold has risen by approximately 10% from its July lows. The RSI (14) indicator does not suggest that USDZAR is oversold. Recommendation Position: Short (SELL) on USDZAR at market price (15.9600). Take Profit (TP): 15.6430 Stop Loss (SL): 16.3108 Figure 1: USDZAR (04.01.2025 - 04.09.2026) Source: xStation, 04.09.2026 (3:22 PM) Opinion Over the last month, the South African rand has strengthened against the US dollar by over 2.5%. The reasons for this movement can be found in two key factors: rising gold prices and an increase in bets for interest rate hikes by the SARB. Figure 2: USDZAR (Reverse Axis) and Gold (2021 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 04.09.2026 The period of greatest difficulty for the South African energy sector is behind us. Since Eskom restored stable energy supplies, the correlation between the price of gold and the rand exchange rate has strengthened once again. The precious metal has recently returned to favour among investors, driven by, among other things, a decline in investor confidence regarding American institutionalism. If interest rates are not hiked at the upcoming Fed meeting (16 September), gold should continue to gain. Recently, President Donald Trump has been pushing harder for a pause (or even a cut, although this seems unlikely). His statements are doubly beneficial for gold; they lead to a withdrawal of some bets on rate hikes, while also limiting faith in the independence of American institutions (strengthening the so-called debasement trade). A few days after the Fed meeting, the SARB meeting will take place (23 September). During the last vote (23 July), as many as 2 out of 6 policymakers voted in favour of a hike. Due to South Africa's high dependence on energy commodity imports, the lack of easing tensions in the Middle East is having a marked impact on domestic inflation. In July, the core measure rose for the 5th time in a row, standing at 4.2%. A rate hike by the SARB in September is currently our base scenario. In a scenario where the United States and Iran reach a quick agreement that at least partially unblocks the Strait of Hormuz, the probability of a rate hike by the SARB naturally decreases. However, such a development should lead to a broad improvement in market sentiment, strengthening emerging market currencies. Currencies of countries highly dependent on imports from Middle Eastern countries should gain particularly strongly from the fall in energy commodity prices (the rand is in this group; approximately 65% of South Africa's refined oil imports come from this region). We have observed such a regularity in recent months. Figure 3: Structure of South African Refined Oil Imports (2024) Source: OEC, 04.09.2026 Methodology The recommendation was prepared based on fundamental analysis of macroeconomic data from the USA and South Africa and their assessment in the context of market valuations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the SARB. The direction of the recommendation was determined using an assessment of the outlook for the aforementioned valuations and an analysis of the situation in the precious metals market. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were determined using moving averages, Fibonacci retracements (SL at 16.3108, near EMA 100 and Fibo 38.1) and local lows (TP at 15.6430, around the January low).

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Gold drops sharply following strong NFP

Highest employment growth since March renews expectations for a Fed rate hike in September The price of gold dropped by about $80 per ounce to levels below $4,400 per ounce in the initial reaction following strong NFP data. The better-than-expected reading triggered an immediate strengthening of the US dollar and a rise in US Treasury yields. Strong impulse from the US: Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 162k in August against a forecast of 55k, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Return of rate concerns: A surprisingly resilient labor market sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates further. Reaction of other assets: The EURUSD pair immediately fell below 1.16, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 4.79%, and US stock indices opened under selling pressure. Strong US data shows not only huge employment growth, but also a positive revision of previous data. Wage growth fell slightly to 3.1%, but some forecasts pointed to 3.0% YoY. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. Gold quickly erases all gains from Thursday's session. Similarly, we are observing a sharp drop in TNOTE. Comments from Fed members will be crucial regarding how to interpret this data. It is worth emphasizing that next Friday we will learn US CPI inflation, which could provide a final picture regarding the prospects for US interest rates.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

NFP with a massive upside; EURUSD dips

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Aug: 162K (est 55K; prev -23K, prevR 21K) - Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (est 4.1%; prev 4.1%) - Avg Hourly Earnings (M/M): 0.3% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%) - Avg Hourly Earnings (Y/Y): 3.1% (est 3.1%; prev 3.2%) US stocks and bonds declined after a remarkably strong August jobs report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. The labor market showed unexpected momentum as the US added 162,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, significantly surpassing economic forecasts. Alongside this robust job growth, the national unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent. Consequently, Treasury yields advanced and the US dollar strengthened. Source: XTB

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Banks

September 4, 2026

Gold: Rebound on softer Fed expectations – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports Gold rebounded over 2% towards 4510 as Waller’s comments led markets to pare September Fed hike expectations, lowering UST yields and the Dollar. Wong remains constructive but notes near-term direction will hinge on Fed repricing, with upcoming payrolls, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) key. Geopolitical tensions are marginally supportive, while higher Oil poses a two-sided inflation risk. Constructive but data-sensitive gold outlook "Gold rose more than 2% towards 4510 intra-session high as Waller’s comments prompted markets to pare Sept Fed hike expectations, pulling UST yields and the USD lower." "The rebound partly reverses the sharp sell-off earlier in the week, when Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and the rise in global yields had weighed on precious metals." "We remain constructive, although near-term direction is likely to stay highly sensitive to Fed repricing. Payrolls tonight may drive the next move in yields and the USD, while next week’s CPI and PPI should be more decisive in determining whether the recent disinflation trend is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold." "Geopolitical tensions remain supportive at the margin, though higher oil prices are a two-sided risk if they feed back into inflation expectations and yields." "Gold last at 4474 levels. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. 2-way risks with bias to buy dips. Immediate resistance at 4520/30 levels (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to Aug high). Decisive break may reopen room for gold to make another attempt around 4700 levels. Support at 4410 (38.2% fibo), 4360 (100 DMA)."

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Forex Trading

September 4, 2026

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD Ahead of NFP. The Fed Caught Between Warsh and Waller

Friday’s EURUSD session is dominated by expectations ahead of the most important release of the week, the NFP report. Over the past few days, the outlook for US monetary policy has become significantly more complicated. Kevin Warsh sounded particularly hawkish during the Jackson Hole symposium, arguing that inflation remains too high and that the Fed still has a lot of work to do. Christopher Waller, meanwhile, struck a much more dovish tone yesterday, suggesting that rates could remain unchanged in September if inflation continues to improve. US Treasury yields have also risen sharply in recent weeks. The market now has to assess whether today’s labor market report will reinforce Warsh’s hawkish stance or support Waller’s view and the possibility of no rate hike in September. Source: xStation5 Key factors currently shaping EURUSD Warsh raises the bar for a dovish Fed The biggest change compared with previous weeks has been the communication from the new Fed Chair. During his Jackson Hole speech, Kevin Warsh argued that the Fed cannot consider the fight against inflation over simply because recent readings have improved somewhat. Warsh pointed out that the improvement in inflation data is still not strong enough to provide confidence that inflation is moving toward the target at the right pace. In his view, the Fed still has work to do, while financial conditions are not restraining the economy enough. This matters for markets because even weak labor market data may no longer automatically signal the end of rate hike expectations. Today’s NFP therefore needs to be assessed on more than just the headline payroll number. Wage growth, the unemployment rate and revisions to previous figures will be equally important. Waller takes a much more dovish stance Christopher Waller presented a much more dovish assessment the following day. In his view, recent data provide enough reason to wait for additional information. If August inflation continues to show improvement, Waller said he would be willing to support keeping rates unchanged at the Fed’s September meeting. His comments came only days after Warsh delivered a strongly hawkish message. The market responded by reducing expectations for a September rate hike. The probability of such a move fell to around 50%, compared with well above 60% just a few days earlier. Waller did not rule out a rate hike, however. His position is conditional on the incoming data. If inflation continues to slow, he favors keeping rates unchanged. If price pressures accelerate again, he could support a hike. The Fed therefore remains highly dependent on the next economic releases. The bond market sends an important signal Another key part of the current picture is the US Treasury market. Bond yields have risen significantly in recent weeks, with the 10 year Treasury yield reaching around 5%, its highest level in almost three years. Yields eased somewhat on Thursday following Waller’s dovish comments. Investors now have to determine whether elevated yields are mainly the result of expectations for higher Fed rates or whether structural factors are also playing a role, including heavy Treasury supply, the fiscal outlook and elevated commodity prices. This matters for EURUSD. If Treasury yields continue to rise, the dollar could remain supported even if the Fed does not immediately deliver another rate hike. If the bond market instead begins to price lower rates more aggressively, pressure on the dollar could increase. NFP is now the key test Today’s labor market report will be an important test of current market expectations. The consensus calls for around 56,000 to 58,000 new nonfarm payrolls in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.1%, while wage growth is expected to slow to around 3% year over year. The market is therefore not expecting a strong rebound in the US labor market. After payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, only a moderate increase is forecast for August. The report could also be distorted by one off factors, which means the headline NFP number alone may not provide a complete picture. Investors will be watching wages, unemployment and revisions to previous figures closely. A weak NFP may no longer mean a strong EURUSD rally In previous weeks, weak labor market data were almost automatically interpreted as an argument for the end of Fed rate hikes. The situation is different now because Warsh has placed a clear focus on inflation. If today’s NFP is weak, EURUSD could initially move sharply higher. Treasury yields could fall and markets could further reduce expectations for a September rate hike. However, if wage growth remains elevated, unemployment does not increase and revisions to previous figures are not particularly negative, the initial reaction could quickly fade. The August CPI report on September 11 could also prove more important for the Fed than the NFP itself. A strong NFP could revive the higher rates scenario If payroll growth comes in significantly above expectations and wage growth remains strong, markets could once again increase the probability of a September rate hike. In that case, the data would provide support for Warsh’s message from Jackson Hole. US Treasury yields could move higher again, giving the dollar additional support. For EURUSD, that would mean renewed downside pressure. However, what matters more than simply beating the consensus by a few thousand jobs is whether the report changes investors’ view of the Fed’s ability to raise rates on September 16. The euro remains relatively well supported Against the changing expectations surrounding the Fed, the euro continues to receive support from the interest rate market. The European Central Bank is still on a path that markets view as more hawkish than they did just a few weeks ago. Markets are pricing another ECB rate hike in September, while part of the curve also points to the possibility of further tightening before the end of the year. EURUSD is therefore being pulled in two directions. On one side, there is Warsh’s hawkish stance and elevated US Treasury yields. On the other, there is Waller’s dovish approach, a weaker US labor market and relatively hawkish expectations for the ECB. Today’s NFP could determine which of these factors has the greater influence on the currency market in the coming days. Key takeaways The situation has become significantly more complicated over the past few days. Warsh has made it clear that the Fed cannot consider the fight against inflation finished, while Waller believes that the central bank can wait if the incoming data continue to improve. Today’s labor market report will provide another important piece of evidence. A weak NFP could reduce expectations for a Fed rate hike and support EURUSD, but after Warsh’s comments the reaction may be more limited than before. A strong report, particularly if accompanied by solid wage growth, could increase expectations for higher rates and support the dollar. Even today’s report is unlikely to provide the final answer. On September 11, markets will receive the August CPI data, and inflation could ultimately determine whether the Fed makes another move. EURUSD is entering the most important part of the week with a clear divergence in expectations for the Fed. Warsh is calling for continued focus on inflation, Waller wants to wait for more data, while the bond market continues to price in elevated risks. Today’s NFP could show which of these narratives will matter most for the market in the days ahead.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Iron Ore Set for Second Weekly Gain

Iron ore futures climbed toward CNY 730 per ton and were on track for a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by elevated ocean freight costs and expectations of pre-holiday restocking in top buyer China. Poor weather in the Pacific, higher oil prices, and increased transshipment volumes from Guinea have pushed up freight costs, providing support to iron ore prices. Industry data also showed that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports declined in the latest week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly drop and signaling potential for restocking. Elsewhere, Brazilian miner Usiminas temporarily suspended operations at its Samambaia iron ore plant in Itatiaiuçu from September 2, citing weaker ore prices and sharply higher freight costs. Meanwhile, iron ore prices may face a ceiling as margins at Chinese steel mills continue to shrink.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

US Employment Expected to Bounce Back

The US economy is expected to have added 56K jobs in August 2026, marking a modest rebound after a surprising decline of 23K in July. The private sector is forecast to have accounted for 45K of those gains. Local government education employment is expected to recover and a rebound is also anticipated in the leisure and hospitality industry. However, these gains could be offset by the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for hundreds of thousands of Haitian immigrants, which has affected their work authorization and ability to remain employed. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 4.1%, hovering near a one-year low. Average hourly earnings are projected to have increased 0.3% from the previous month and 3.0% from a year earlier, which would mark the weakest annual growth since May 2021. Overall, the report is expected to point to a relatively stable, albeit subdued, labor market.

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Banks

September 4, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI inflows and reduced tail risks – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan notes strong Indian Rupee (INR) outperformance driven by larger-than-expected US Dollar (USD) inflows from Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FCNR(B) measures, which now exceed US$130bn. Wan still expects USD/INR to trend higher over time but argues that RBI’s FX measures have reduced left-tail depreciation risks. MUFG also sees scope for higher Indian rates given robust macro conditions and forecasts a 50 bps RBI hike from December. Rupee support and rate outlook "In particular, we saw strong outperformance in the Indian Rupee, driven by much higher than expected Dollar inflows from RBI’s FCNR(B) FX measures, reaching above US$130bn in total as of 31 Aug." "Our key message to clients is that we still think USD/INR should trend higher over time, but RBI’s FX measures has given authorities meaningful firepower and ammunition, and as such we continue to think the left tail risk of sharp INR depreciation has been removed." "We are somewhat less circumspect from a rates perspective however, and we think that incremental pricing in the market can shift towards rates moving higher, given the broader macro dynamics of strong credit and GDP growth, supportive fiscal policy, and interaction with adverse weather conditions." "We continue to see RBI hiking rates by 50bps starting in the December meeting."

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Banks

September 4, 2026

US Dollar: Fed outlook stays data-dependent after Waller – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team highlights that Fed Governor Waller is inclined to keep rates unchanged in September if August inflation shows further progress, but would consider a hike if inflation comes in hot. His remarks pushed September hike pricing closer to a 50/50 call and weighed slightly on the Dollar, while strong ISM services data and the upcoming US jobs report keep the Fed outlook firmly data-dependent. Waller shifts focus to inflation and jobs data "On the wires, Fed's Waller said he is inclined to support keeping the policy rate unchanged at the September meeting if August inflation data shows continued progress. However, he also noted that if inflation comes in hot, he would consider a September rate hike." "The comments put further emphasis on the upcoming inflation release as key for the Fed's near-term policy decision. The USD weakened slightly after the remarks, while market pricing for a September hike moved closer to a 50/50 call from around 60/40 in favour of a hike prior to the comments." "In the US, the ISM services index rose to 55.4 in August (cons: 54.2, prior: 54.1), coming in stronger than expected and pointing to solid momentum in the services sector. The details were also firm, with business activity, new orders and prices all increasing notably, while the employment index ticked up only slightly and remained in contractionary territory." "The US Jobs Report, the week's most important data release, is due. We expect nonfarm payrolls at +65k, slightly above consensus, and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.1%, suggesting a still-tight labour market. We expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m. A solid report could put further pressure on the Fed to hike rates." "In the US there was also an initial decline on the back of Fed Wallers comments, but then yields began to rise in the afternoon and 10Y Treasuries ended unchanged."

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Banks

September 4, 2026

Oil: Elevated prices face fragile support – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices, including ICE Brent above US$95/bbl, remain supported by heightened US-Iran tensions and robust Iraqi exports routed via the Strait of Hormuz. However, they highlight that if Hormuz flows remain uninterrupted and Saudi Arabia’s unchanged official selling prices signal looser fundamentals, upward pressure on Oil may fade despite tight refined product markets. Brent strength tested by Hormuz flows "Oil prices remain elevated, with ICE Brent holding above US$95/bbl amid a pickup in hostilities between the US and Iran this week. This included Iran firing missiles into neighbouring Gulf countries. Escalation is propping up crude, but the rally may lose traction if Hormuz shipments keep moving smoothly." "According to reports, Iraq exported the highest amount of oil since the start of the US-Iran war in August – a total of 2.35m b/d. Of that, around 2.26m b/d was exported from southern routes. This would need to eventually go through the Strait of Hormuz." "Furthermore, Saudi Arabia kept its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light unchanged at a $2/bbl discount for October loadings. The expectation had been for an increase, suggesting the market is not as tight as thought." "However, refined product markets remain significantly tight. The latest data from Insights Global shows that refined product inventories in the ARA region fell by 118kt week-on-week to 4.15mt. The decline was led by naphtha, gasoil and jet fuel." "Unless Persian Gulf and/or Russian diesel flows recover, the market is likely to tighten further as we head towards winter. This tightness in middle distillates is not isolated to Europe. US diesel cracks remain above $100/bbl, while retail diesel prices in the US have hit their highest level since mid-2022."

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Economic Calendar – Key NFP Report Takes Center Stage

Global equity and bond markets are eagerly awaiting the week's main event – the publication of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for August. Yesterday's session on Wall Street ended in positive territory following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled a readiness to hold or cut interest rates if incoming data confirms a further cooling in inflationary pressures and the labor market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a rebound in crude oil prices continue to weigh on market sentiment and maintain elevated uncertainty. Today's NFP print will be crucial in verifying this dovish narrative and determining the magnitude of potential Fed rate cuts at the upcoming September meeting. Key Asian Session Releases 01:30 Japan - Household Spending y/y for July was -3.6%. Consensus: -1.6%. Previous: -3.3%. The reading came in weaker than expected, highlighting persistent weakness in private consumption. Economic Calendar 08:00 Germany - Industrial Orders m/m. Consensus: 0.3%. Previous: 3.1%. 11:00 Eurozone - Retail Sales m/m. Consensus: 0.3%. Previous: -0.3%. 11:00 Eurozone - Retail Sales y/y. Consensus: 1.1%. Previous: 0.7%. 14:30 USA - Nonfarm Payrolls. Consensus: 55K. Previous: -23K. 14:30 USA - Unemployment Rate. Consensus: 4.1%. Previous: 4.1%. 14:30 USA - Average Hourly Earnings y/y. Consensus: 3.0%. Previous: 3.2%. 14:30 USA - Labor Force Participation Rate. Consensus: N/A. Previous: 61.4%. 14:30 Canada - Employment Change. Consensus: 15.0K. Previous: 8.2K%. 14:30 Canada - Unemployment Rate. Consensus: 6.4%. Previous: 6.4%. 19:00 USA - Baker Hughes Rig Count. Consensus: N/A. Previous: 447. 3 Markets to Watch Today: EUR/USD (and US Dollar Index - DXY): The primary beneficiary of the NFP report. A reading below consensus would align with Waller's dovish remarks yesterday, placing downward pressure on the dollar and boosting EUR/USD. Gold: Highly sensitive to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and shifting Fed rate expectations. Confirmation of further labor market cooling will provide support for the precious metal. S&P 500 / US500: Equity markets will gauge whether softer labor market data is interpreted as a signal for prompt rate cuts or if it triggers broader concerns about an economic slowdown.

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Banks

September 4, 2026

Japanese Yen: Policy signals support JPY against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that recent interventions by Japanese authorities and the US Treasury have largely lost impact, with the Japanese Yen giving back gains against the Dollar and US yields returning to prior levels. She highlights unclear policy objectives and credibility issues, noting that fiscal concerns remain a headwind for the US Dollar and that markets still view USD/JPY 160 as a key line. Policy signals and fiscal headwinds "Both the interventions by the Japanese authorities and those by the US Treasury have more or less fizzled out. The Japanese yen has already surrendered part of the gains it made against the US dollar following the historic intervention at the end of July, all within just a few weeks. Likewise, US Treasury yields have returned to the levels seen before the Treasury announced increased bond buybacks." "Fiscal concerns therefore remain a headwind for the US dollar." "Interventions do not work solely through the physical purchase or sale of assets. Equally, if not more, important is their signaling effect: policymakers use them to indicate a change in policy stance or hint at future policy measures." "Nevertheless, the 160 level is likely to be viewed as an implicit line in the sand for the time being, particularly because the Bank of Japan adopted a markedly hawkish tone after that level was recently reached, as my colleague noted yesterday." "As long as governments fail to credibly address market concerns about the trajectory of public debt, investors are likely to continue demanding a risk premium on both the yen and the US dollar."

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Energies

September 4, 2026

WTI Bulls await acceptance above $90.00 and 61.8% Fibo. amid Iran risks

WTI sticks to a bullish bias as US-Iran tensions keep the geopolitical risk premium in play. Clashes over the Strait of Hormuz fuel supply concerns and also support the black liquid. The technical setup backs the case for an extension of an over one-week-old uptrend. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – trades below the $90.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday and remains close to its highest level since July 24, touched earlier this week. The commodity remains on track to register its steepest weekly gains since mid-July amid renewed US-Iran hostilities and supply concerns due to clashes over the Strait of Hormuz. In further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran targeted US military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Thursday. Meanwhile, South Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy military assets to support freedom of navigation in the strategic Strait of Hormuz and aims to dispatch them before the end of the year. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and validates the near-term positive outlook for crude oil prices. Even from a technical perspective, the near-term bias stays bullish as the black liquid holds above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-July decline and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, constructive momentum indicators suggest a firm underlying floor after the latest advance. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 63, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains in positive territory. This, in turn, hints that buyers retain the upper hand even as conditions edge toward overbought. However, a move beyond the initial hurdle near the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $92.01 is needed to back the case for additional gains towards the next barrier near $98.76 at the 78.6% retracement. A sustained break higher would expose the prior swing high around $107.36. On the downside, immediate support comes at the 50% retracement at $87.26, followed by the 100-day SMA near $85.17. A deeper pullback would find additional demand around $82.52 and then $76.65, where lower Fibonacci levels converge to reinforce the broader uptrend. WTI daily chart

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Can NFP Confirm Waller’s Dovish Turn?

📈 Stock Market Yesterday's session on Wall Street ended very successfully, confirmed by clear gains in key benchmarks: the flagship S&P 500 index rose by 1%, the Dow Jones gained about 1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq performed best, surging 1.4%. Elon Musk's empire also recorded a highly successful session, with Tesla shares rising by nearly 5.5% and SpaceX gaining close to 6.5%. Gains extended to tech giants, including Microsoft and Meta, which gained 2.7% and 3%, respectively. Asian stock markets are gaining clearly on Friday, with tech companies performing particularly well in response to declining expectations of a September Fed rate hike. The improvement in sentiment across Asian markets followed dovish comments by Christopher Waller, which caused the probability of a rate hike to drop from around 63% to 50%. At the time of writing this briefing, Asian indices are growing at a significant pace: the Kospi is up by about 2.5%, Japan's Nikkei is gaining close to 1.5%, and China's Hang Seng is posting a gain of around 2%. Investors in Asia remain cautious, however, awaiting today's NFP report, which could once again impact expectations regarding Fed policy. 🏛️ Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy The primary fuel for Wall Street's gains was a speech by Christopher Waller, which was perceived by the market as distinctly dovish. Waller assesses that the latest data shows clearer signs of easing inflationary pressure, which increases his comfort level regarding future Fed policy. The Fed official noted that upcoming inflation readings will be crucial – if they bring no negative surprises, Waller leans toward keeping interest rates unchanged in September, while remaining open to altering his stance should inflation prove higher than expected. Investor focus today centers on US labor market data, where the latest NFP reading (change in US non-farm payrolls) will be released at 14:30 The RBNZ raised interest rates by 25 bps to 2.75%, although the bank's statement suggested a more cautious approach to subsequent hawkish moves. The RBNZ's latest forecasts were interpreted as a signal that the next rate hike is more likely in December than in October. Market pricing currently indicates only about a 30% chance of an RBNZ move in October, whereas a full rate hike is already fully priced in by December. Household spending in Japan fell by 3.6% YoY in July, exceeding the expected decline of 1.6%. The reading recorded in Japan represents the largest decline since January 2024 and marks the eighth consecutive month in which consumption has contracted. Data from Japan confirms that rising living costs continue to weigh heavily on consumers, serving as a significant argument for the Bank of Japan when making decisions on further interest rate hikes. 🕊️ Geopolitics JD Vance stated that the US does not intend to hold talks with Iran until Tehran ceases attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington emphasizes using all available means to maintain the flow of oil and gas through the strait, while avoiding setting a firm deadline for the conclusion of operations. Vance conceded that the timing of when Iran will stop attacking ships remains unknown, warning that further escalation could impact global energy markets. According to the US administration, US pressure is taking an increasing toll on the Iranian economy, with sanctions and the oil export blockade restricting Tehran's access to currencies and key commodities. Daily loadings of Iranian crude have fallen drastically from around 1.7 million to a mere 260 thousand barrels. Donald Trump suggests that renewed military actions should not last long, although at present there is no breakthrough in US-Iran relations. 👑 Commodities and Precious Metals A cautious session prevails in the precious metals market ahead of the NFP report publication. Gold is trading slightly in the red, hovering around the $4,470 per ounce level. Silver is under heavier selling pressure, recording a drop of about 0.6% to the level of $66.5. 🪙 Cryptoassets The cryptoasset market opens Friday's session in a cooler mood. Bitcoin is down by about 0.8%, bringing its valuation to a test of the $81,000 level. Ethereum trades slightly in the red, maintaining quotes around the $2,500 level.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

XAU/USD consolidates below $4,500 as bulls look to US NFP for Fed rate cues

Gold bulls turn cautious as the USD recovers slightly ahead of the crucial US NFP report. Energy-driven inflation fears underpin Fed tightening prospects and further cap bullion. Receding Fed hike bets and soft US bond yields cap the USD, supporting the commodity. Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and consolidates below the $4,500 mark during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity, however, remains close to the weekly high, which it touched the previous day, as traders keenly await the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked upon for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path amid receding bets for a rate hike in September. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion. Gold traders eye US jobs data as Fed tone turns more hawkish According to TD Securities, "Non-farm payrolls this Friday will be the next piece of data with keen interest for precious metals" as markets grapple with "the renewed hawkish tone from the Fed and the latest escalation in the energy market." However, the bank strikes a more constructive note beyond the immediate data risk, adding that "looking forward, we do not anticipate material downside as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain." Heading into the key data release, Governor Christopher Waller stated on Thursday that he is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady at the September FOMC meeting, provided there are no surprises from upcoming inflation data. Investors responded by pushing US bond yields and the USD sharply lower, which, in turn, assisted the Gold price to build on its recovery from a four-week low touched on Wednesday. However, inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices leave the door open for a rate hike later this month. This helps the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, bounce off a one-and-a-half-week low and cap the upside for the commodity. In fact, crude oil prices sit near their highest levels since July 24 amid renewed US-Iran hostilities and clashes over the Strait of Hormuz. In further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran targeted US military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Thursday. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said that US President Donald Trump has a series of options available at his disposal to deal with Tehran, including economic, military, diplomatic, and covert measures. Adding to this, South Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy military assets to support freedom of navigation in the strategic Strait of Hormuz and aims to dispatch them before the end of the year. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, which supports crude oil prices and might continue to underpin the safe-haven USD. However, the near-term direction hinges on the highly anticipated US jobs report. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair, for now, seems to have stalled its recent corrective decline from the vicinity of the $4,700 mark, or the highest level since May 14, and remains on track to register modest weekly gains. That said, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,500 round figure is needed to back the case for any meaningful appreciating move. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis The precious metal maintains a constructive near-term tone above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent leg down. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line lodged above zero with a positive histogram suggest firm but not overextended bullish momentum while the Gold presses into the nearby 50% retracement barrier ahead of $4,500. Further up, the 61.8% level near $4,540, followed by the 78.6% retracement at $4,609 and the swing high cluster around $4,698 could be key hurdles. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,442, ahead of the 23.6% level near $4,381, with the 200-period SMA at $4,322 and the structural floor around $4,283.63 reinforcing a broader bullish bias.

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Forex Trading

September 4, 2026

United States Dollar Index weakens as Fed’s Waller signals rate pause

US Dollar Index struggles as Fed Governor Waller signals potential rate pause, contrasting with Warsh's hawkish tone. Market probability for a September Fed rate hike fell to 50.2% following the remarks. Investors await US August payrolls data, expected to add 56,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.1%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the third consecutive day and trading around 99.00 during Asian hours on Friday. The Greenback is facing notable downward pressure following comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated a preference for keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming September meeting, provided upcoming inflation data contains no major surprises. Fed Waller's dovish tone stood in sharp contrast to the hawkish stance delivered by Chairman Kevin Warsh just a week earlier. In response to these remarks, market expectations shifted significantly, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating that the probability of a September rate hike dropped to 50.2%, down sharply from 63.2% the previous day. Investors and market participants are now shifting their focus toward the release of the US August employment report for further clues on monetary policy trajectory. Current market consensus projects Nonfarm Payrolls to increase by 56,000 jobs, while the Unemployment Rate is forecasted to remain steady at 4.1%. Adding further headwinds to the Greenback is a surging Japanese Yen, as traders remain on high alert for potential official currency interventions and continue to price in the possibility of more aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of Japan later this year. Yen extends sharp gains as intervention speculation intensifies Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the Japanese currency has staged an outsized move, noting that “the yen is up a shocking 1.5% vs. the USD, building on Wednesday’s impressive gains that sparked renewed speculation around the possibility of official intervention.” They point out that the latest advance comes on top of prior strength, reinforcing market focus on whether authorities may step in to curb further Dollar weakness against the Yen. Technical Analysis: DXY struggles as bearish bias prevails In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 98.98, extending a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which now act as overhead barriers. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the midline near 40, hinting that downside pressure persists even as the latest pullback slows, while the softening FXS Fed Sentiment Index suggests a waning policy-support backdrop for the dollar. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 9-period EMA around 99.26, with the 50-period EMA near 99.79 reinforcing a broader supply zone above current levels. A daily close back above these clustered EMAs would be needed to ease the immediate downside bias; failing that, the index remains vulnerable to further slippage toward prior lows not yet reclaimed on the daily chart.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

XAG/USD trades below $67.00 amid mixed setup as US NFP looms

Silver struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days. A bearish USD could support the commodity as traders await the US NFP. The mixed technical setup warrants caution for aggressive bullish traders. Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak to the weekly high set the previous day. The white metal, however, lacks bearish conviction and currently trades below the $67.00 mark, down 0.30% for the day, as traders await the release of the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Heading into the key data risk, receding bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September and sliding US bond yields keep the US Dollar (USD) near its lowest level in over a week. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for USD-denominated commodities, including the XAG/USD. That said, the technical setup warrants some caution for bullish traders and positioning for an extension of this week's goodish rebound from the $63.30 area. The XAG/USD trades below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.84 and the mid-range Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July decline. Moreover, mixed technical momentum indicators suggest that rallies remain capped for now. In fact, the Relative Strength Index hovers in the mid-50s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips into negative territory, hinting at waning upside pressure and validating the near-term cautious outlook. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 38.2% retracement at $67.83, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50.0% retracement at $71.89 and the 200-day SMA at $72.84. A sustained strength above this cluster would be needed to ease the broader downside bias and expose the 61.8% level near $75.95. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. level at $62.81, with a deeper floor at the prior cycle low around the 0.0% retracement at $54.69, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if selling accelerates. XAG/USD daily chart

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Energies

September 4, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Increase

US natural gas futures rose to $2.92 per MMBtu on Friday after sliding 1.5% in the previous session, as investors weighed forecasts for hot weather and improving LNG export activity against ample domestic supplies. Hot weather across the continental US kept cooling demand elevated, supporting gas consumption for power generation. At the same time, average gas flows to the nine major LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd in early September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, as major facilities in Texas returned to full operations after maintenance. The developments coincided with stronger demand for US LNG in Europe and Asia, where buyers are seeking supplies to refill storage ahead of the winter heating season, amid continued disruptions to LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. Still, abundant domestic supplies are limiting the upside for prices. Gas inventories were 5.2% above their five-year seasonal average as of August 28, while average output in the Lower 48 states remained at record highs.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Cattle Futures Rally

Live cattle futures were $2.45 to $4.125 higher at the Thursday close. Cash trade has picked up in the north this week at $345-350 dressed, steady on the week, with early live sales at $218. Some bids across the country were picked up at $219-220 on Thursday. The Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange online auction showed $343 dressed sales on 80 head, with a few bids of $218-219 on other lots. Feeder cattle futures were rallying on the session, with contracts $5.65 to $6.95. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 91 cents on September 2 to $328.27. Export Sales data from USDA showed beef sales for 2026 at just 12,937 MT for the week ending on 8/27. That was a 3-week high. South Korea was the buyer of 4,700 MT, with 1,700 MT sold to Hong Kong. Shipments were tallied at 12,026 MT, which was back up from last week. The top destination was South Korea at 3,400 MT, with 3,000 headed to Japan.  Beef exports in July were tallied at 198.95 million lbs according to Census data converted to a carcass basis. That was the lowest July total since 2009. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices continued lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel widening to $26.18. Choice boxes were down $1.88 at $376.90, with Select $2.86 lower to $350.72. USDA estimated the Wednesday Federally inspected cattle slaughter at 105,000 head, with the weekly total at 412,000 head. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week. Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $214.300, up $4.125, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $216.125, up $4.100, Feb 27 Live Cattle  closed at $217.725, up $3.725, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $325.850, up $6.875, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $321.100, up $6.725, Nov 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $315.300, up $6.950,

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Markets

September 4, 2026

The Outlook for More Global Supply Weighs on Coffee Prices

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down -2.75 (-0.92%) on Thursday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed down -32 (-0.94%). Coffee prices extended their week-long slide on Thursday, with arabica dropping to a 1-month low and robusta falling to a 3-month low.  Coffee prices have sold off sharply over the past week on the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to add more supply to the market.  Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as space fills up, suggesting farmers holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to increase coffee sales as storage space dwindles.  Bigger coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, are also weighing on robusta prices.  Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported Wednesday that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Aug) rose by +13.7% y/y to 1.33 MMT.  Above-normal rainfall in Brazil may benefit flowering for next year’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 8.9 mm of rain, or 127% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 30 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Last Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.75-month high and robusta posted a 3-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  Safras & Mercado reported on Monday that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% completed as of August 26, behind 100% last year and the 5-year average of 98%. Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 96% complete, behind last year's 99%.  Also, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported Wednesday that 91.9% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 28, up 4 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 94.9% a year earlier. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 223,712 bags on Thursday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots on Wednesday. Coffee prices also have support from the devastating earthquake last month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report on August 13 quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Cocoa Prices Retreat as Supply Fears Abate

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed down -99 (-1.58%) on Thursday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed down -65 (-1.42%). Cocoa prices settled lower for a third day on Thursday amid signs of ample cocoa supplies.  On Wednesday, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving the market better prepared to manage risks than it did during the 2023/24 El Niño weather event that drove cocoa prices to record highs. Also on Wednesday, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported that the Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, up +30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier.  Larger cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast are bearish for prices after Tuesday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 30, 2026), up +19% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,411,776 bags on Tuesday. Cocoa prices had strengthened over the past week, with NY cocoa posting an 11-month high on Monday and London cocoa posting an 11-month high on Tuesday.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices.  Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins this month.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  On July 21, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Sugar Prices Fall on Speculation India Will Import Less

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed down -0.63 (-3.37%) on Thursday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -12.60 (-2.34%). Sugar prices settled sharply lower on Thursday as speculation that India will import less sugar than initially expected fueled long liquidation in sugar futures.  The Indian government reduced the sugar dealer stock holding limit to 200 MT from 400 MT, effective Sep 15 through Nov 20, to curb hoarding and boost domestic availability.  The action will help push more sugar stockpiles onto the market, potentially reducing India's need to import sugar.      An excessively long position by funds in London sugar could exacerbate any long liquidation pressures. Last Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed funds boosted their long positions in London ICE white sugar by 2,830 net-long positions in the week ended Aug 25 to a record 70,766, the most since data began in 2011. On Wednesday, NY sugar posted a 16.75-month high, and London sugar posted a 1-week high.  Sugar prices are rallying on the outlook for a global deficit.  On Tuesday, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT after a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Thursday projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  Also, the European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said last Thursday that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT. On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported on Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 13% below normal as of September 2, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move further signals the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Platinum Trades Above $1,800

Platinum futures traded above $1,800 an ounce after climbing from a two-week low, as a weaker US dollar boosted demand for precious metals. The rally followed dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged if inflation continues to ease, prompting investors to scale back bets on a Fed hike this month. Traders now await US jobs data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Still, renewed fighting in the Gulf and higher oil prices kept inflation concerns in focus, potentially complicating the Fed’s policy path. Meanwhile, platinum’s industrial demand is expected to rise 9% this year to 2.24 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council. Valterra Platinum highlighted China’s rapidly expanding hydrogen-truck sector as a potential new demand catalyst, estimating around 6 million ounces of additional global demand if hydrogen trucks reach a 20% share of the global fleet.

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Energies

September 4, 2026

European Gas Prices Fall for 2nd Day

European natural gas prices fell for a second session to around €71.5 per MWh on Friday as investors assessed renewed tensions in the Middle East. The latest flare-up came after a US attack on Iran triggered retaliatory strikes on American bases across the region, sending European gas prices to their highest level in more than three years. Although President Trump indicated that renewed strikes on Tehran would not last too long, tensions remain high around the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping paralysis continues to hamper Gulf LNG supplies to Europe, slowing the pace of inventory replenishment. Europe’s gas inventories for the upcoming winter remain abnormally low, raising the risk of tighter competition and leaving the region vulnerable to price spikes during colder months. Despite the recent decline, European gas prices have climbed more than 6% this week, their fourth consecutive weekly gain.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Soybean Futures Hold Above $13

Soybean futures held above $13 per bushel, near their highest level since December 2023, as fresh Chinese purchases supported demand despite weak US export sales. China has continued buying US soybeans as part of its commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The USDA confirmed a 192,000-ton fresh sale to China for 2026/27, following purchases of 202,000 tons a day earlier and 136,000 tons on September 1. US and Chinese officials are also expected to announce measures on agriculture and non-tariff barriers during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington this month, raising hopes for lower Chinese tariffs on US farm products. Meanwhile, the latest USDA weekly report showed a net reduction of 94,200 tons in 2025/26 soybean sales for the week ended August 27. However, accumulated exports reached 40.76 million tons, while outstanding sales stood at 1.10 million tons. New-crop demand remained firm, with 2026/27 outstanding sales at 16.28 million tons.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Palm Oil Subdued, Heads for Second Straight Weekly Loss

Malaysian palm oil futures steadied near MYR 4,900/t after recent declines, as firmer Dalian edible oil prices were offset by softer Chicago soyoils. Meanwhile, crude oil prices strengthened amid renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities, raising supply concerns and supporting sentiment. Rising El Niño risks added a bullish factor, with drier conditions threatening Southeast Asian production. Output in top producer Indonesia is projected to fall 2.9% to 56.8 million tons in 2027. Indonesia is also set to maintain its B50 biodiesel mandate next year, with implementation reportedly reaching 80% so far. Demand prospects improved in India, where refiners imported record soyoil volumes and the most palm oil in six months ahead of festivals. However, futures were set for a second weekly loss, pressured by weak exports, as cargo surveyors estimated August shipments fell 6.5–14.9% from July. Meanwhile, ample supply persisted, with Malaysian inventories at a five-month high in July.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Copper Holds Gains as Supply Risks Persist

Copper futures traded around $6.57 per pound on Friday, holding recent gains as ongoing supply-side challenges continued to support prices. Analysts highlighted a recent export ban from Congo, along with weaker output from major producers Chile and Peru and disruptions linked to El-Nino. Chile’s copper production fell 9.4% year-on-year in July due to severe weather and mine maintenance. China’s refined copper production also declined 3% to 1.1 million tons in June. Meanwhile, tariff uncertainty continues to encourage shipments into the US, pushing Comex inventories to record highs while tightening supplies elsewhere. On the demand side, renewed hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns that elevated energy prices could weigh on global economic activity and metals demand.

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Markets

September 4, 2026

Corn Holds Near 3-Year High

Corn futures held above $5.10 per bushel, trading near their highest level in more than three years, as concerns over disruptions to Black Sea grain exports added support ahead of the region’s peak corn export season. The peak export window for Black Sea corn begins in October, raising concerns over global supplies as attacks continue to disrupt shipments from Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine accounts for roughly 10-11% of global corn exports, making prolonged disruptions a potential source of tighter supply. Meanwhile, the latest USDA weekly report showed a net reduction of 829,600 metric tons in US corn sales for the 2025/26 marketing year in the week ended August 27, although accumulated exports reached 85.06 million tons, up from 83.49 million a week earlier. Traders are also monitoring US crop prospects ahead of the harvest and await USDA’s updated crop estimates on September 11.

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Euro: ECB succession and data support resilience – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Eurozone assets remain supported by steady composite PMI readings and improving signs in German demand, while speculation over ECB leadership succession grows. He highlights Friedrich Merz’s upcoming meeting with ECB officials and questions surrounding Christine Lagarde’s tenure and a possible German candidate for the presidency. Leadership questions meet steady PMIs "German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet ECB officials next week ahead of the bank’s rate decision, with markets expecting a 25bp hike to 2.50%. The meeting gives Merz an opportunity to discuss Germany’s improving economic outlook, but it also comes amid growing speculation over the ECB’s leadership succession." "President Christine Lagarde may not complete her term, due to run until October 2027, while Berlin is weighing whether to back Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel as a potential successor. Germany has never held the ECB presidency, although securing the role could prove difficult given that German officials already occupy several senior European posts." "Euro area composite PMI for August held at 52.0 points, unchanged from July’s eight-month high and signaling another solid month of private sector growth. The services PMI eased slightly to 51.6 from 51.7, while manufacturing momentum strengthened, helping keep overall activity firm." "Germany’s services PMI for August edged down to 49.7 points from 49.8 in July, remaining just below the 50-point threshold and signaling another marginal contraction in activity. Underlying demand improved, however, with new business rising for a second month and export orders increasing for the first time since February, at the strongest pace since May 2023." "Price pressures were broadly stable and still elevated vs. pre-Iran war levels, while business confidence held steady."

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ meeting to decide JPY path – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen as USD/JPY repeatedly breaks above 160 despite record FX interventions. He argues that expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, rather than intervention, now drive the currency, with recent hawkish comments boosting speculation. Pfister warns that failure to deliver a hike at the upcoming BoJ meeting could see the Yen weaken again. Yen recovery hinges on BoJ action "Following the last Fed meeting (and shortly before the BoJ meeting), coordinated fx market interventions have once again reached a new record level. But they have merely delayed the upward trend in USD-JPY. In other words, the interventions initially pushed the exchange rate significantly lower, but the upward trend subsequently resumed." "Since yesterday morning, however, the yen has started to move. Due to several sharp downward swings in USD-JPY it is now trading below 158 again rather than above 160. This made the yen one of the big winners on the FX market yesterday." "These expectations have recently gained significant momentum, and were further fuelled this week by comments from the US Treasury Secretary urging officials to raise interest rates. Yesterday, these were reinforced by comments from a BoJ hawk, who refused to commit to a 25-basis-point increase for the upcoming rate hike and did not rule out back-to-back rate hikes." "Comments made in recent weeks nevertheless suggest that the BoJ may be inclined to increase the pace of its interest rate hikes significantly (currently roughly every six months). As we have repeatedly stated, a sustained recovery in the yen depends primarily on the actions of the Bank of Japan (and fiscal risks)." "For example, if the BoJ does not raise interest rates in two weeks' time, the yen is likely to weaken again. Should there be further fx interventions following the meeting and the subsequent light trading due to public holidays, these would again be no game changer. In other words, the fate of the yen now hinges directly on the upcoming meeting in two weeks' time."

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Markets

September 3, 2026

Wheat Eases From 3-Year Peak

Wheat fell below $7.30 per bushel, easing from over a three-year high, amid expectations of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin stated there was a chance of a peace agreement to end the war with Ukraine, which triggered profit taking by traders. The EU also stated it was looking into "all possible lanes" to support grain exports from Ukraine, citing concerns over food security. As Ukraine and Russia account for more than a quarter of global exports, nearly two months of persistent attacks on commercial vessels in the Black and Azov seas raised concerns over further grain supply disruptions. The conflict resulted in a decline in wheat exports from Russia by more than 50%, which suspended its floating export duty on wheat through the end of 2026, and from Ukraine by 34% in 2026 so far. The disruption adds to the pressures building within global food commodities amid adverse weather and higher fertilizer and fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Federal Reserve: September hike bias shifts – ING

ING’s James Knightley argues Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech has shifted the Federal Reserve’s reaction function toward a September rate hike, even though ING’s macro projections suggest the Fed could wait. The analysis highlights inflation above target, robust activity but pressured households, and concludes that a 25bp move is now more likely than a hold, with rates then stable into 2027. Warsh tilts Fed toward hiking "Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium, we were comfortable with the view that the Fed would be patient and hold rates steady well into 2027. However, Chair Warsh took a notably more hawkish stance in his keynote address. He emphasised a focus on inflation, which has been above target for 65 consecutive months, and a sense that financial conditions aren’t tight in an environment of full employment." "Given this, we need to change the way we think about the September Fed decision. Previously, it was that the Fed would hold unless the data justifies a hike. Now it is that the Fed will hike, unless the data justifies a pause." "There are two key August data points ahead of that decision; the 4 September jobs report and the 11 September CPI print. Before Jackson Hole, we would have said it requires a non-farm payrolls figure of 75k+, the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% with core CPI coming in at 0.3% month-on-month or above to result in a vote in favour of a rate hike. Now, we suspect it will likely require a jobs figure below 25k, possibly even net job losses, with a core CPI MoM reading below 0.2% MoM, to prevent/delay a hike." "After having sounded hawkish in June and then backtracked in July, what would it mean to Warsh’s credibility to have gone hawkish again in August only to turn more dovish in September? His emphasis on trends rather than individual data points also suggests he has made his mind up and, with no-one on the FOMC openly hostile to a rate hike, we have to say that a 25bp increase now looks more likely than a hold." "Ordinarily the assumption is that if the Fed hikes, they don’t do just one. However, this time around we think that may be the case as the soft jobs figures and cooling inflation data calm Fed worries. Market and consumer inflation expectations remain in check, so we see parallels with the late 1990s – cuts in early 1996 before a pause, then one 'risk management' hike in March 1997 before a long pause through late 1998."

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Energies

September 3, 2026

WTI Oil hits highs near $91 as risks of an all-out war in the Middle East grow

WTI Oil reaches session highs at $90.95 and posts a nearly 10% weekly rally so far. Reciprocal US-Iran attacks and escalating threats are boosting concerns of an all-out war in the Middle East. Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with US inventories falling fast. Crude prices resumed their upside trend on Thursday after some hesitation on Wednesday, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate reaching session highs a few cents below $91.00 per barrel, almost 10% up on the week so far. The resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran this week is pushing Oil prices higher amid growing concerns that the region can slide into an all-out war involving neighbouring countries, which would strain Crude exports from the Gulf countries even further. US President Donald Trump’s comments affirming that the US can strike Iran “at a much harder and higher level” have not helped to ease tensions. Trump made these remarks warning Iran against retaliation, as Tehran accused the US military of targeting a civilian wedding on Tuesday’s strikes, killing four people, and injuring dozens. Oil traffic to Hormuz remains limited to a trickle Meanwhile, sea traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, despite comments by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright affirming that more than 17 million barrels of Oil crossed the strategic corridor on Monday, which he considered a record traffic since the war started in late February. Data from ship tracking services, however, contradicts those statements. Kpler traffic monitoring services reported only five ships crossing Hormuz on Monday, the day US and Iran resumed their hostilities, a 50% decline from 10 days before and a marginal percentage of the 130 average ships that used to cross the waterway before the war started. On Wednesday, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that inventories continue depleting, which contributed to boost prices higher. Commercial Crude Oil stocks declined by 4,45 million barrels in the last week of August, according to EIA data, well beyond the 1.1 million drawdown forecasted by market analysts and following a 0.095 million increase in the previous week.

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Banks

September 3, 2026

US Dollar: Near-term stabilization view – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) is softer mainly against the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc, with Brent Oil nearing $100. Haddad expects the Dollar to stabilize in the near term except versus the Japanese Yen, and sees elevated Fed rate hike pricing into the September FOMC, but ultimately anticipates a dovish repricing as the Fed holds rates. Fed pricing and Dollar outlook "The ADP August private payrolls data showed labor demand remains unimpressive. The economy added +38k private sector jobs in August (consensus: +47k) vs. +46k in July, the lowest reading since January. Of note, the correlation between monthly change in ADP private payrolls and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is weak." "Meanwhile, the latest Fed Beige Book remained indicative of solid economic activity and stable labor markets. “The general outlook for the coming months was positive…Employment rose very slightly overall.” The inflation outlook was mixed." "August Services ISM is the other highlight (3:00pm London, 10:00am New York). The data should remain indicative of resilient demand and sticky inflation pressures. The headline index is seen at 54.1 for a second straight month, and the Prices Paid index is expected at 70.0 vs. 70.3 in July." "We expect USD to stabilize in the near-term, except against JPY. Fed funds rate hike pricing will remain elevated into the September 16 FOMC decision, with the August CPI print on September 11 the decisive test." "We don’t expect the FOMC to hike this month, which will ultimately lead to a dovish repricing against USD. Wage growth is consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and Fed policy is already somewhat restrictive, assuming a nominal neutral rate of 3.00%."

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Markets

September 3, 2026

Gold Price – XAU/USD recovery, likely to be challenged around $4,470

XAU/USD reaches session highs at $4,440 after bouncing from $4,380 on Wednesday. US Dollar gives away gains as ADP jobs data disappoints and Fed's Williams tempers rate hike hopes. Gold bulls are likely to meet resistance at $4,470 ahead of the 200-day SMA. Gold (XAU/USD) is trading higher on Thursday, returning to levels above $4.400 after bouncing from three-week lows near $4,280 on Wednesday. The precious metal is drawing support from a weaker USD, as ADP employment data disappointed and New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams tamed rate hike expectations, but Fed tightening bets remain solid, and bulls are likely to face significant resistance at $4,470.US Data released on Wednesday revealed that private employment rose 38K in August, the weakest reading since January and well below the 47K increase expected.  Apart from that, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said that rising bond yields are due to a solid economy, rather than to inflation fears, and suggested that the central bank should “wait and see” before taking decisions on interest rates. This cooled hopes of an immediate rate hike, although futures markets are still pricing a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike at September's meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Technical Analysis: Gold bulls have significant resistance ahead XAU/USD has bounced up from lows and is trading returning to the $4,430 area, but keeps a mildly bearish near‑term tone following an impulsive reversal from last week's highs near $4,700. Momentum indicators are in neutral territory, with the daily Relative Strength Index (14) at 52 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, which shows that the bullish impulse is fragile. Gold bulls are likely to be tested at the August 31 high, near $4,470, and, above here at the key 200‑day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,533, which closes the path to last week's high, at $4,690. On the downside, a break of the August 14 low in the $4,310 area confirms a "Head and Shoulders" pattern, and adds pressure towards the August 6 low of $4,220 and the late July lows near $4,000.

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Swiss Franc: Swiss data supports dip-buying case – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note Swiss August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprised to the upside, triggering profit-taking in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF but leaving Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy expectations unchanged. They point out that wider G10/SNB rate differentials and low FX volatility may encourage EUR/CHF dip-buying, while warning that renewed focus on French fiscal and political risks could revive Swiss Franc (CHF) strength. Stronger Swiss data, cautious Franc risks "Elsewhere, Swiss August CPI and 2Q GDP surprised to the upside this morning, sparking profit taking in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF." "The data should not shift the outlook for SNB policy. Inflation is averaging 0.6% so far in 3Q which is in line with the June forecast. " "The projection is for inflation to "initially continue to increase slightly in the coming quarters, before declining again somewhat in the first half of 2027. " Buyers on dips in EUR/CHF and G10/CHF more generally may be tempted, drawing support from wider G10/SNB differentials and low FX volatility." "The caveat and tail risk for EUR/CHF is a revival of the inverse correlation with the 10y OAT/Bund spread which has completely broken down since June." "Will tensions around the French budget and presidential elections cede advantage to the Franc? "

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Energies

September 3, 2026

Oil Prices Swing

Crude oil prices remained volatile on Thursday, swinging around $91 a barrel and trading near their highest levels in more than a month as investors continued to monitor the situation in the Middle East, including the evolving strikes and their impact on oil supplies through Hormuz. Hostilities resumed earlier this week for the first time since July, with the US striking Iran and Tehran responding with attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq. Meanwhile, US President Trump said on Wednesday that the renewed hostilities in the Middle East would not last “too long”. Despite the escalation, there were signs that crude supplies were still reaching the market. Six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 on Tuesday and compared to the 10-day average of nearly 13, according to Reuters. In addition, Iraq’s oil exports increased to around 2.34 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, with exports expected to rise further in September.

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Earnings

September 3, 2026

Broadcom Delivers Record Results. The Market Is Already Looking Much Further Ahead

Broadcom closed its third fiscal quarter of 2026 with results that, on an operational level, are difficult to describe as anything other than outstanding. Revenue reached $29.59 billion, up 86% year over year and above analysts’ expectations. Earnings growth was even more impressive. Key figures: Revenue: $29.59 billion, up 86% year over year GAAP operating income: $15.96 billion, up 171% year over year GAAP net income: $13.09 billion, up 216% year over year GAAP earnings per share: $2.68, up 215% year over year Cash flow from operations: $14.20 billion, up 98% year over year Free cash flow: $13.67 billion, up 95% year over year What stands out most is that such a substantial improvement in results was not driven by a single one-off event. There was no transaction or extraordinary revenue item in the third quarter that would explain the 171% year-over-year increase in operating income and the 216% increase in net income. A lower effective tax rate had some positive impact on net income, but its contribution was relatively small compared with the scale of the overall improvement. The primary drivers of growth therefore remain rapidly rising sales and the high profitability of Broadcom’s core business. The main source of this growth continues to be sales of chips designed for computing infrastructure. Revenue in the Semiconductor Solutions segment reached $20.84 billion, up 127% from the third quarter of the previous year. Data center chip sales were particularly strong. They reached $16.7 billion in the third quarter, representing a 221% year-over-year increase and a 54% increase compared with the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Broadcom expects data center revenue to rise to $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter. That would represent an increase of roughly 30% sequentially and 236% year over year. The main issue from an investor perspective is not the quality of the quarter that has just ended, but the level of expectations for the next one. Broadcom forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $34.8 billion, up 93% from the same quarter a year earlier. The guidance itself is very strong, but it proved insufficient against the market’s extremely high expectations. That is why the initial investor reaction was negative, even though the company expects revenue to remain almost twice as high as it was a year earlier. More interesting than the guidance for the next quarter is the outlook for the next several years. Broadcom expects approximately $58 billion in data center chip revenue in fiscal 2026, around $115 billion in 2027, and as much as $230 billion in 2028. That would represent growth of roughly 98% in 2027 compared with 2026, followed by another increase of about 100% in 2028 compared with 2027. With assumptions this ambitious, the market will naturally demand regular confirmation through actual results. It is precisely this potential scale of long-term growth that could matter more to shareholders than a few billion dollars of difference in near-term quarterly guidance. Broadcom is no longer presenting merely a short period of exceptionally strong growth. Instead, it is outlining a plan to multiply the scale of its computing infrastructure business several times over. At the same time, such ambitious targets increase the risk of disappointment, particularly if investment by the company’s largest customers begins to slow or competition from internally designed chips proves stronger than expected. Broadcom delivered a very strong report, and the negative stock-market reaction is primarily a reflection of the fact that the market expected even more. Year-over-year growth of 86% in revenue, 171% in operating income and 216% in net income, combined with $13.7 billion in free cash flow, demonstrates the extraordinary scale of the company’s current growth. For investors, the key question now is whether Broadcom can maintain a pace of expansion sufficient to deliver on its very ambitious 2027 and 2028 targets. Against this backdrop, weaker-than-expected guidance for a single quarter looks more like a problem of an exceptionally high bar than a sign of deteriorating fundamentals. Źródło: xStation5

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Canadian Dollar: BoC inflation focus and valuation divergence – MUFG

Derek Halpenny at MUFG notes the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) immediate advance after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% but signalled greater concern over inflation. Communications hinted at a possible earlier hike, yet MUFG doubts a sustained CAD rebound, citing short‑term valuation models that suggest USD/CAD should trade higher, with Oil and Middle East risks also shaping CAD performance. CAD reaction to BoC and Oil "The Canadian dollar advanced immediately yesterday in response to the decision of the Bank of Canada to leave its monetary stance unchanged at 2.25% with the rhetoric accompanying the decision indicating a greater concern over the inflation outlook than market participants were expecting." "However, the communications were certainly indicative of a possible rate hike coming much sooner. The reference to the policy stance being appropriate to achieving the inflation goal was omitted and the emphasis certainly shifted more to the upside inflation risks. Even with underlying inflation well contained there was a “heightened risk” that energy prices would spill over into broader measures of inflation." "In the press conference the impact of tariffs on the economy was certainly the focus from a growth risk perspective but Governor Macklem added that the tariffs were applied to a ‘relatively narrow base’ and because of that the BoC did not expect a ‘big ongoing impact on overall economic activity’.” "Our short-term valuation model for USD/CAD points to the USD/CAD level currently undershooting which is similar to the current divergence on the co-movement between USD/CAD and the 2-year swap spread. Both indicate USD/CAD should be trading between 1.40-1.41." “That CAD upside risk related to oil is now more relevant given it also now appears to up the prospect of a BoC rate hike and that will help strengthen the CAD/Oil correlation given it’s now more closely associated to the BoC’s reaction function.”

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Polish Zloty: NBP language turns cautious after FX pressure – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski used G20 remarks to shift towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. With August CPI surprising hawkishly and the Zloty underperforming CE3 peers, the bank is seen on the back foot. Ghose expects unchanged rates on 9 September but doubts this will curb PLN underperformance. Glapinski moves away from dovish guidance "Poland’s National Bank (NBP) governor Adam Glapinski used remarks at the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads in North Carolina to portray a subtle shift towards a more neutral signal: Poland’s MPC is not pre-committed to any particular rate path, and monetary policy must remain flexible, data-driven and based on forecasts and the balance of risks." "But, against the latest backdrop, the language matters because Glapinski did not take the opportunity to repeat his earlier dovish signal about rate cuts being imminent." "NBP is clearly seeing this depreciation and is being pushed on to the back foot. Even without saying anything explicitly hawkish, Glapinski’s remarks mark a shift away from dovish guidance and towards a more cautious approach." "The 9 September MPC sitting should bring unchanged rates, but the key question will be about whether or not NBP is prepared to transition to a more hawkish stance, formally." "For the zloty, however, this may prove too little too late: NBP is turning cautious only after FX pressure has moved against it – a minor change of language may not be enough to curtail PLN underperformance."

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Australian Dollar: Pullback eases with upside focus on 0.7200 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report AUD/USD dipped to 0.7122 before a strong rebound to 0.7176, leaving intraday price action in a 0.7140–0.7180 range. Downward momentum is fading and a break above 0.7190 would confirm 0.7120 is out of reach. On a 1–3 month horizon, the pair is seen poised to clear 0.7200, targeting the year-to-date high near 0.7280. Australian Dollar consolidates after rebound "24-HOUR VIEW: While we expected AUD to “edge lower” yesterday, we pointed out that “based on prevailing momentum, the major support at 0.7120 is likely out of reach.” We added that “resistance is at 0.7160; a breach of 0.7170 would mean that the current downward pressure has eased.” Our view was not wrong as AUD declined to 0.7122. However, we did not expect the subsequent strong rebound that reached a high of 0.7176. The downward pressure has eased, and today, we expect AUD to trade in a range, most likely between 0.7140 and 0.7180." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted on Monday (31 Aug, spot at 0.7160) that “the almost month-long AUD strength has ended.” We also highlighted that AUD “could pull back further toward 0.7120.” Yesterday, AUD dipped to within a couple pips of 0.7120 with a low of 0.7122 before rebounding strongly to close at 0.7170 (+0.34%). Downward momentum is starting to ease, and if AUD breaks above 0.7190, it would mean that 0.7120 is out of reach."

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Banks

September 3, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention jitters linger – ING

Chris Turner at ING notes that a near 1% drop in USD/JPY within minutes, followed by another slide, sparked talk of renewed Japanese intervention after the Bank of Japan’s earlier $96 billion sales. Authorities appear satisfied with price action, but Turner says a likely Fed hike in mid-September should keep USD/JPY supported unless the Bank of Japan turns much more hawkish. Authorities watch sharp Yen moves "The near 1% fall in USD/JPY over a couple of minutes yesterday afternoon, and another slide overnight, sparked talk of another round of intervention." "This follows the $96bn sold by the Bank of Japan in late July/early August. Traders seemed to doubt that this was an intervention, given the lack of dislocation in the FX electronic matching systems at the time." "US and Japanese authorities must be satisfied by yesterday’s price action and keen to encourage a sense of urgency for those long USD/JPY and EUR/JPY above 160 and 186, respectively." "That said, a Fed hike in mid-September looks likely to keep USD/JPY relatively bid this month and any sustainable turn lower in USD/JPY now probably requires a much more hawkish Bank of Japan and some new initiatives to encourage domestic investment in Japan."

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Markets

September 3, 2026

XAG/USD struggles to extend upside above $66.25, NFP data awaited

Silver price faces resistance near $66.25 in the countdown to the US NFP data. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates in the policy meeting this month. Higher oil prices could pressurize the Silver price. Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend Wednesday’s strong recovery move above $66.25 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal could remain sideways as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be released on Friday. US jobs rebound seen keeping Fed on hold despite hawkish risks According to TD Securities, August Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to “rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k,” with the firm cautioning that “risks to our payrolls forecasts appear hawkish, and we would not rule out an outsized positive surprise.” The unemployment rate is projected to have “gone sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks,” suggesting only limited change in headline labour market conditions. Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP report as it is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Analysts at TD say that “a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed's attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes,” as they “continue to expect that inflation data can print modestly, allowing the Fed to keep rates on hold for now.” According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a two-in-three chance that the Fed will increase interest rates in the September policy meeting. Elsewhere, higher oil prices due to restricted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, could fizzle out the recovery move in the Silver price. Higher oil prices prompt global inflation expectations, a scenario that increases fears of interest rate hikes from central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver. Silver Technical Analysis In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.00. The pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.51, keeping the near-term bias constructive as price extends its recovery from the mid-$50s area. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 53.04 sits in neutral territory but leans higher, which suggests buyers still have the upper hand without the market being overstretched. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at $65.51, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand. Looking up, the August high near $71 is expected to remain a key barrier.

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Banks

September 3, 2026

US Dollar: Hedging impulse fades as holdings stabilize – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the July FOMC-driven Dollar hedging impulse has largely run its course, with early signs of USD buying returning against EUR, MXN and CAD. Trade-weighted Dollar holdings are historically light, suggesting scope for stabilization, but a sustained recovery still depends on stronger U.S. asset demand and renewed real-rate leadership. Dollar hedges unwind after FOMC "Our flows are showing the first signs of dollar stabilization after a difficult August. After spending much of Q2 and Q3 significantly overheld as part of the “U.S. exceptionalism” trade, the dovish interpretation of the July FOMC meeting prompted a flurry of dollar hedging." "One day doesn’t signal a trend, but the past three weeks indicate there was no appetite to add aggressively to dollar hedges. The Fed’s signal that it’s willing to continue rate hikes removes the main driver for dollar sales in early August." "Overall USD holdings remain elevated, but without any re-opening of a policy gap between the U.S. and peers, we don’t see any additional constraints on dollar performance. Tariffs notwithstanding, stronger performance against the currencies of key U.S. trading partners also represents incremental tightening through pass-through." "We expect dollar holdings to stabilize around current levels now that Fed expectations have adjusted. There are idiosyncratic reasons for markets to avoid adding to MXN, CAD and EUR aggressively, while CNY’s impact is diminishing." "Shifting the dollar toward a case of holdings recovery requires strong asset interest and leadership in real rates. Qualitatively, this requires the Fed to shift toward restrictive policy – a stance that all but precludes asset performance, especially in equities."

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Forex Trading

September 3, 2026

Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts: Main trend remains upward from the end of June The pair bounced off the key technical support near 1.1580 Recommendation: Trade: Long position on EURUSD at market price Target: 1.1677, 1.1745 Stop: 1.1535 Opinion: EURUSD has been trading in an upward trend recently. Looking at the D1 interval, one can see that the recent downward correction reached the key support, where buyers appeared twice .The area 1.1580 is marked with previous price reactions and lower limit of 1:1 structure. In addition the price sits above the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. According to the classic technical analysis and Overbalance methodology, continuation of the upward move looks to be the base case scenario. We recommend going long EURUSD at market price with two targets: 1.1677 and 1.1745. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.1535. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

September 3, 2026

Chart of the Day: USDJPY sees another sharp drop; the pair is already down 1.25% intraday

The USD/JPY pair saw a sharp sell-off today, falling by over 1.2 per cent and testing the day’s low at 156.35 . The market is rapidly pricing in the growing risk of direct intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) and signs of a hawkish shift in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy. 1. Fundamental Background: The BoJ and the Green Light from the US Signals from the US Treasury: The assurances and lack of opposition from the US Treasury weaken the case for continuing to defend a strong dollar at the expense of the yen, giving the Japanese authorities the green light to defend their currency. BoJ hawkish pivot: The market is increasingly pricing in potential interest rate rises in Japan, which is narrowing the interest rate differential between the US and Japan and leading to a further unwinding of carry trade positions. Fears of intervention: The breach and loss of the 160.00 level triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders, pushing the price down to levels not seen for a month. Just a moment ago, however, press reports citing sources at the BoJ stated that the Bank of Japan intends to raise rates by 0.25 per cent whilst maintaining a ‘flexible approach’ regarding further moves. Given investors’ strongly pro-yen positioning in recent days, this lack of resolve on the part of the BoJ could provide a pretext for profit-taking on short positions in the USD/JPY pair and a reversal of the current trend. 2. Technical Analysis of the Chart (USD/JPY, D1) Momentum and daily candlestick: The daily chart shows a bearish Marubozu candlestick, which has broken below the previous consolidation range. The daily low was 156.347 , with the current price around 156.65 (a fall of -1.25%). Volume Profile: The area of highest volume (POC) and the consolidation seen over recent weeks remained high within the range of 158.00 – 159.50 . A break below this volume node paved the way for a rapid downward move due to the lack of significant historical volumes in the 156.50 – 158.00 range. The nearest key cluster from this year is located precisely in the 156–157 yen per USD range, which is currently being tested. RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index has fallen sharply to 31.57 , approaching the oversold zone (<30). This indicates strong bearish momentum, although in the short term it may signal the potential for a corrective rebound.

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Energies

September 3, 2026

Time to take a breather, oil price pullback helps markets recover

Key takeaways When will we get a sustained market recovery? Get used to a high rate environment Payrolls in focus Improved relations for China/ US Broadcom fails to deliver strong enough results, but will it impact the AI trade? Broadcom: what it tells us about hyperscaler spending trends As we move into the second half of the week, the oil price is dipping and there are signs of stabilisation in the bond market and in stocks. US indices snapped a 3-day losing streak on Wednesday, Asian indices rose overnight and futures prices point to more stabilisation today, with the FTSE 100 expected to open higher. Treasury yields are also easing on Thursday, after the 10-year Treasury yield rose to a multi-year high on Wednesday. This does not mean that inflation concerns have gone away or that bonds won’t sell off again. 10-year US Treasury yields are still higher by 13bps this week. However, after a rough start to September, it could be time to take a breather, and UK and European yields may follow suit. UK yields have been under intense pressure this week, but the sell off eased on Wednesday and we expect UK yields to moderate further on Thursday. What will it take for markets to recover? For a recovery in market sentiment to be sustained, we would need energy prices to pull back to early summer levels. Brent and WTI prices are both lower today, Brent is lower by 1% and is trading around $94.50 per barrel, after President Trump said that renewed hostilities with Iran would not last long. However, the President also said that the US is prepared for more military strikes at any time, and US ally Kuwait said that it is still facing Iranian missile strikes. Until there is a complete stop to attacks from both sides it is hard to see commodity prices pull back in a meaningful way, or bonds stage a long term recovery as central banks will remain wary about inflation risks. Get used to a high rate environment It is also worth noting that natural gas prices in Europe remain elevated and above $70, their highest levels since 2023. And we do not think that central banks will shift from their hawkish stances any time soon. US and European stock futures are improving as we wait for the market to open, although the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are both pointing to a mildly lower open later today. However, futures for the FTSE 100 have turned positive. Payrolls in focus The focus will shift to Friday’s US payrolls report, which could seal the deal on a September rate hike from the Fed. There is already a 62% chance of a hike priced in, but a stronger than expected payrolls reading, that bucks the trend of recent lower jobs growth in the US, could see this rise even further. Improved relations for China/ US News that Donald Trump and President Xi will meet in Washington later this month could calm fears that the fighting between Iran and the US will be ongoing. The war will loom large over the summit, especially since the latest round of US sanctions on Iran could target its trading partners, including China. While summits between Xi and Trump have yielded fairly minimal results in the past, it could ease fears about trade wars between the world’s two largest economies, especially as Trump has been targeting trading partners in recent weeks. Broadcom fails to deliver strong enough results, but will it impact the AI trade? The AI trade will also be in focus on Thursday, after Broadcom’s results last night. The chip giant posted stronger profits, with earnings per share at $3.32, beating expectations of $3.24. Revenue for last quarter was also stronger at $29.59bn. However, the stock price was volatile after the company’s current quarter guidance fell short of expectations at $34.8bn, markets had been expecting $35.03bn. Lofty expectations have been an issue for other companies linked to the AI trade because growth has been so rapid in recent years. Broadcom’s share price initially dipped by 5% even though revenue rose by 86% compared to a year ago and profits tripled. The company has been a big winner from the AI capex binge. It designs custom chips for the likes of Google, Meta and OpenAI, however, its share price has lagged its peers and the overall market, and is up only 4% this year. It is down 4% in the past month. Broadcom and the bigger AI picture Broadcom managed to claw back early post-market losses, but the stock price fell by 1.9% overnight. If revenue guidance is not meeting expectations, it could be a sign that the capex boom is showing early signs of cooling down, which could hit the entire chip sector hard. For now, a sell off in Broadcom shares looks fairly contained. Nvidia’s share price rose in overnight markets and losses for Micron and AMD have been mild so far. However, if Broadcom’s results do spook the market, and there is a sell off in AI names later today, it could be tough for the US indices to stage a recovery. Overall, Broadcom’s results suggest that if companies are reliant on hyperscaler spend, it does leave them exposed to changes in their AI strategies. Overall, it will be worth watching the chip sector closely later today.

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Markets

September 3, 2026

Soybeans Rise Above $13

Soybean futures rose above $13.0 per bushel, near their highest level since December 2023 as fresh Chinese buying and signs of tightening crop conditions supported prices. Private exporters reported fresh sales of 202,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, following a 136,000-ton purchase a day earlier. The latest deals brought Chinese purchases announced since the start of September to 338,000 tons, reinforcing expectations for stronger US export demand as the new marketing year gets underway. Looking ahead, a potential late-September meeting between Trump and Xi could shape agricultural trade. Meanwhile, the latest USDA crop-progress report showed US soybean conditions deteriorating, with the good-to-excellent rating falling two percentage points in the week ended August 30, adding to supply concerns ahead of harvest. Traders now await the USDA’s weekly export-sales report for further signals on overseas demand, particularly from China.

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Markets

September 3, 2026

Corn Futures Fall on Profit-Taking

Corn futures fell below $5.2 per bushel, easing from a three-year high as traders took profits following the recent rally. Still, concerns over US yields and potential export demand continued to support prices. The latest USDA report showed the corn crop holding at 57% good-to-excellent as of August 30, while recent field assessments pointed to mixed and, in some areas, lower-than-expected yields, raising doubts over the size of this year’s harvest. Meanwhile, Chinese officials are reportedly discussing purchases of US agricultural products, including corn, ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting. Global supply concerns also persist, with the EU forecasting its 2026 maize harvest at nearly a 20-year low, while disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments remain a risk to exports. Ahead of the USDA’s weekly export sales report, traders expect US old-crop corn sales of up to 200,000 metric tons and new-crop sales of as much as 1.6 million tons, keeping attention on overseas demand.

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Markets

September 3, 2026

Palm Oil Rebounds on Dalian Gains, El Niño Risks

Malaysian palm oil futures strengthened, trading near MYR 4,990 per tonne after recent losses, lifted by firmer edible oil prices on the Dalian market. Sentiment was also supported by rising El Niño risks, which could bring drier conditions to Southeast Asia. Palm oil output in top supplier Indonesia is expected to fall 2.9% to 56.8 million tonnes in 2027. Indonesia will also maintain its B50 biodiesel mandate next year, with implementation reportedly reaching 80% so far. In India, refiners imported a record volume of soyoil in August and the most palm oil in six months, ahead of the festive season, providing additional demand support. However, gains were capped by a stronger ringgit and weaker crude oil prices. Export prospects also remained weak, with cargo surveyors estimating Malaysian palm oil shipments fell between 6.5% and 14.9% in August from July. Meanwhile, ample supply remained a headwind, with Malaysian palm oil inventories rising to a five-month high in July.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Cocoa down 4% as Mondelez International calms market supply fears

The cocoa market remains strongly supported by concerns over weather conditions in West Africa, but the fundamental picture is far from uniformly bullish, with ICE cocoa futures (COCOA) down more than 4% today . Industry giant Mondelez has pointed out that relatively healthy cocoa inventories provide a buffer that could soften the impact of a modest supply deficit. Since June, cocoa futures have surged by around 80%, driven mainly by expectations of a much smaller global surplus and risks linked to this year’s strong El Niño. However, Mondelez’s latest comments have helped cool the rally. A cocoa market deficit is far from certain despite El Niño The main cocoa harvest season in Ivory Coast began this week, with production in the world’s largest producer expected to decline, potentially leading to a smaller global surplus. BMI analysts expect the global cocoa surplus to fall from 442,000 tonnes in the 2025/26 season to 82,000 tonnes in 2026/27. According to BMI, such a sharp contraction should create a higher fundamental floor for cocoa prices and limit the scope for deeper declines. The key source of uncertainty remains West Africa, as Ivory Coast and Ghana together account for around half of global production. This means that any weather-related disruption in the region can have a disproportionately large impact on prices. Still, the actual impact of El Niño on harvests is not yet clear and has not yet become visible in hard production data. Mondelez itself stressed that, at this stage, the market is largely trading the risk of such a scenario rather than confirmed evidence of production losses. Hedgepoint expects the global cocoa surplus in 2026/27 to fall to around 111,000 tonnes, showing that not every forecast is aligned with BMI’s estimate. Both projections, however, point to a much tighter market balance, but still not an outright deficit. The deterioration in the balance is expected to reflect both an approximately 2% decline in production and roughly 2.5% growth in cocoa grindings. This matters because the market is approaching a point where even a relatively small additional deterioration in supply could quickly eliminate the remaining surplus. South America helps stabilize cocoa prices vulnerable to African production risks One stabilizing factor is rising production in South America. Ecuador and Brazil in particular are becoming increasingly important as alternative sources of supply, gradually reducing the market’s dependence on West Africa. Ecuador is emerging as the most important challenger to traditional producers and aims to become the world’s second-largest cocoa producer within the next two years. If this expansion continues, it could structurally reduce the risk premium associated with the geographic concentration of global supply. On the demand side, the picture is also less bullish than chocolate sales alone might suggest. In recent years, manufacturers have reduced cocoa content and adjusted product sizes, meaning that stronger snack demand does not necessarily translate one-for-one into higher demand for cocoa beans. The key takeaway for the market is that the recent rally has a solid fundamental basis in a tighter supply-demand balance and elevated weather risks, but healthy inventories, rising South American production and lower cocoa intensity in food manufacturing could limit the scale of further upside. COCOA chart (H1 interval) Since the beginning of June, we have already seen two downward impulses similar in magnitude to the current move, both of which pushed RSI close to 30. A comparable setup is developing now. If El Niño begins to materially affect actual production in Africa this year, a rebound toward $7,000 per tonne and above may become possible. However, if the impact remains limited, cocoa could just as easily consolidate within the $5,500–$6,200 per tonne range for a prolonged period. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

September 2, 2026

Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts: Euro area inflation expectations according to the ECB are lower than expected inflation according to the University of Michigan over the analogous period (3.5 vs. 4.2). US CPI inflation came in at 3.4% versus 3.3% CPI inflation in the euro area. US GDP growth was 1.5% versus 0.4% in the euro area (QoQ). As of 09.02.2026, futures contracts price in 1.59 rate hikes in the US by the end of 2026, versus 1.92 rate hikes in the euro area. RSI [14] remains around 51 points. Recommendation: Short position (Sell) on EURUSD at the market price. Target price (Take Profit, TP): 1.101 Stop Loss (SL): 1.204 EURUSD (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION : On the EURUSD pair, a clear repricing of both the probability and the scale of interest rate hikes can currently be observed, which should trigger a correction in the euro versus the US dollar. Price growth in Europe is weaker than in the US, inflation expectations are lower over analogous periods than in the US, and economic growth is clearly lower than in the US. This not only implies asymmetric risk between an economic slowdown and further price increases for Europe (to the detriment of the economy), but also clearly shows a trend in which the macro environment in the US is much more supportive of rate hikes in the US than in Europe. Despite this, futures contracts suggest as many as 1.92 rate hikes in Europe by the end of 2026 and as many as 3.1 by July next year. Over the analogous period, rates in the US are expected to rise by 1.59 and 2.53, respectively. In terms of the absolute change in the policy rate, this implies a difference of +0.792 for the euro and +0.644 for the USD. It is worth remembering that the current ECB deposit rate is 2.25% versus the Fed rate of 3.625% (average). Even if the entire hiking cycle fully materializes, the Fed’s rate remains clearly higher. From a technical analysis perspective, this move is confirmed by the “death cross” formation, i.e., the EMA100 crossing below the EMA200. Methodology and assumptions The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels, as well as fundamental analysis of the FX market. The target level was determined based on a linear regression from 2019 to 2026 and a Fibonacci level. The protective stop loss order was determined based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and based on a Fibonacci level.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Agricultural Commodities Retreat

COTTON & WHEAT down more than 2% 🔥 Agricultural commodities have seen a strong wave of gains, driven mainly by supply and logistics concerns. These stem from a combination of worries about fertilizer prices, the security of terminals in the Black Sea, and weather anomalies following El Niño. WHEAT (D1) Chart Source: xStation5 Wednesday, however, brings a correction of the recent gains in agricultural commodities. Coffee, wheat, and cotton contracts are down about 2%. Corn is also posting visible declines. Contract prices are under pressure for several reasons. Overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, another exchange of fire between Iran and the US could be observed. The market is increasingly pricing in a return to regular military operations, despite assurances from the US administration about shifting to “economic” warfare. The mechanism of the negative impact is fairly complex: unrest involving Iran raises fertilizer and oil prices, which fuels inflation fears. Higher inflation means higher interest rates and yields, which may support the dollar and, at the same time, may put pressure on US exports. Also significant is the pullback toward the average. Many agricultural commodities have risen by double-digit percentages, from the teens to several dozen percent. “Overstretched” RSI indicators could, sooner or later, have contributed to profit-taking.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Iron Ore Falls on Strong Supply Outlook

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 710 per ton in early September, retreating from one-month highs on expectations of strong supply in the second half of the year. Industry data showed global iron ore shipments increased by 2.73 million tons week-on-week to 35.72 million tons from August 24-30. However, iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports fell by 7.66 million tons to 19.52 million tons over the same period. Meanwhile, global iron ore production growth is expected to accelerate to an average of 2.2% a year over 2026-2030, up from 1.2% over the previous five years, lifting annual output to 3.04 billion tons by 2030, according to research firm BMI. On the demand side, the outlook for industrial metals weakened as surging oil prices heightened inflationary risks and reinforced expectations of imminent interest rate hikes. Higher borrowing costs could eventually slow global economic growth, dampening demand for industrial metals.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Steel Pulls Back on Demand Uncertainty

Steel rebar futures fell to around CNY 3,100 per ton in early September, pulling back from multi-month highs as surging oil prices heightened inflationary risks and reinforced expectations of imminent interest rate hikes, weighing on the demand outlook. Higher rates could eventually slow global economic growth, dampening demand for industrial metals. Meanwhile, steel prices rallied sharply in August as investors anticipated a recovery in demand due to seasonal factors ahead of the September peak construction season. China’s National Development and Reform Commission also reportedly held meetings in recent weeks, urging local governments to accelerate the construction of major projects. However, China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, held steady at 49.0, matching July’s reading and remaining at its weakest level since December 2022.

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Banks

September 2, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention risk may revive tactical longs – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu says JPY selling has largely run its course, while USD/JPY’s return toward 160 keeps intervention risk firmly in focus. The bank notes that positioning has not yet turned decisively long JPY, but sees scope for tactical yen buying to re-emerge if markets again anticipate official intervention. Intervention risk anchors USD/JPY levels "Exposures are rotating rather than reversing. JPY selling has largely run its course as intervention risk caps USD/JPY near 160, institutional investors are replacing retail as the marginal buyer of EM APAC semiconductors, and cross-border demand for long-end USTs is weakening without turning into outright selling. The common thread is greater selectivity: investors are still willing to own risk, but with less tolerance for policy, leverage, and duration uncertainty." "Our data show that JPY selling – both on an aggregate basis and on the dollar leg – has largely ended. Heavy sales came through after the initial round of intervention in July, a sign that the market was using the opportunity of a stronger JPY to either re-engage in carry trades or hedge local exposures. Even the headwinds introduced by the July FOMC decision and more recent Treasury buyback announcement didn’t alter the path." "After spending close to $96.4bn (with additional support from the U.S. Treasury), USD/JPY is back to 160, validating the JPY shorts and USD/JPY longs." "However, JPY sales have ceased. Notwithstanding IMF rules around intervention, the 160 level appears to be the hard “cap” for markets. The market isn’t fully turning into long JPY yet (or reducing shorts), but a repeat of early July – pre-intervention buying – is possible." "At current valuations, the market is fully vigilant of intervention at any point."

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Banks

September 2, 2026

Equities: Global stocks extend declines as yields rise – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that rising nominal and real yields pressured global equities, with US and European stocks falling and losses extending across Asia. US technology shares underperformed, while European declines were more moderate. Futures for major US and European indices also pointed to continued weakness. Global indices under broad pressure "Meanwhile in the US, the 10yr Treasury (+4.8bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.80%, and in Japan 10yr yields have crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years. With nominal and real yields rising, that meant equities took a decent hit as well, with the S&P 500 (-0.71%) and Stoxx 600 (-0.56%) both falling yesterday. Asia has continued the declines with the Nikkei (-2.95%) and the Kospi (-3.79%) leading losses." "The combination of higher yields and commodities also meant that equities took a hit yesterday, with stocks falling on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US that was led by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Exchange Index (-2.14%), followed by the Nasdaq (-1.03%) and Mag 7 (-0.72%)." "In Europe, markets closed before the news of new US strikes against Iran, so the Stoxx 600 (-0.56%), FTSE 100 (-0.32%) and CAC 40 (-0.39%) posted more moderate declines while the DAX (-1.10%) underperformed. Stoxx futures are down around half a percent as I type this morning." "In Asia, as mentioned at the top, the Nikkei and Kospi are sharply lower with the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.04%) also trading notably weaker, with stronger-than-expected GDP data reinforcing expectations of another RBA rate hike later this year." "Additionally, the CSI 300 (-1.25%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.82%) and the Hang Seng (-0.96%) are also lower as I type. S&P (-0.10%) and Nasdaq (-0.26%) futures are lower following last night's sell-off."

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Banks

September 2, 2026

Brent: Geopolitical risk keeps cracks elevated – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent has pushed back above $95/bbl as escalating Persian Gulf tensions revive supply risk and a geopolitical premium. They highlight record ICE gasoil cracks, extreme backwardation and ongoing disruptions to Middle East and Russian diesel exports. ING expects middle distillate cracks to stay highly elevated and volatile into seasonally stronger demand. Brent and diesel cracks stay tight "Brent pushed back above $95/bbl, reaching its highest level in more than a month, as Persian Gulf tensions escalated further. After weekend strikes, Iran hit two oil tankers in the region yesterday. The US, meanwhile, carried out additional overnight strikes on Iranian targets, adding fresh geopolitical risk premium to the market." "Developments in recent days brought risks to regional oil supplies back into focus. We’ve seen oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite the stalemate between the US and Iran, but rising tensions clearly put crossings at risk. The US energy secretary said 17m barrels of oil flowed through the strait on Monday, the highest volume since the conflict began." "Escalation in the Middle East also dashes any hope for a recovery in refined product flows, leaving markets tight. This is mostly reflected in the diesel market, where the ICE gasoil crack traded to record highs yesterday of around $79/bbl, while the diesel crack in the US is trading well above $100/bbl. Timespreads reflect this acute tightness, with the ICE gasoil Sep/Nov spread trading at a backwardation of $80/t." "Given disruptions to Middle East and Russian diesel exports, and with little sign of an imminent recovery, middle distillate cracks are likely to remain highly elevated and volatile, particularly as we move towards seasonally stronger demand. The global refining system has little slack to make up for the disruptions we are currently seeing." "The latest API numbers show US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6m barrels over the last week. The picture was more mixed for refined products, with gasoline inventories up 300k barrels while distillate stocks fell by 300k barrels. The move in distillate stocks will do little to help ease tightness concerns."

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Markets

September 2, 2026

RBNZ raises interest rates again, yet NZD falls after the decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Wednesday. Annual CPI inflation accelerated to 4.1% in Q2 , largely due to higher fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. However, the RBNZ emphasized that underlying inflationary pressures remain considerably weaker. Excluding motor fuels, inflation fell to 2.9% , while core inflation, wage growth, and inflation expectations remain consistent with headline inflation returning to the 1–3% target range by mid-2027 and reaching 2% later next year. RBNZ Raises Rates to 2.75%, but Its Outlook Weighs on NZD The macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed. The RBNZ believes New Zealand's economic recovery has resumed following weak growth in the second quarter and expects activity to gradually broaden, supported by resilient external demand and strong export prices. Domestic conditions, however, remain considerably weaker. Subdued household spending, elevated unemployment, job insecurity, and weak house prices are weighing on consumption and residential investment, particularly in Auckland and Wellington. The central bank therefore continues to balance upside inflation risks stemming from energy prices against still-significant spare capacity in the economy. Dovish Tone Overshadows the Rate Hike Despite the rate increase, the overall message was interpreted as relatively dovish. The RBNZ argued that gradual tightening now should reduce the risk of more aggressive rate hikes being required in the future and reiterated that the future path of the OCR is not predetermined. Four committee members assessed the risks to inflation as tilted to the upside, particularly if elevated energy and petrochemical prices become embedded in broader price-setting behavior. Two members viewed the risks as broadly balanced. Economists generally assessed the projected rate path as less aggressive than some market participants had feared, reducing expectations that the OCR could ultimately rise toward 4% . The New Zealand dollar weakened sharply following the announcement, losing almost 1.0% against the U.S. dollar . The reaction suggests that investors had been positioned for a more hawkish signal given headline inflation of 4.1%. Instead, the RBNZ emphasized a gradual approach and the temporary nature of the inflation shock. The near-term outlook for the NZD will likely depend on whether oil prices remain elevated and whether domestic inflationary pressures begin to broaden beyond fuel-related components.

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Banks

September 2, 2026

US Dollar: August inflation key to September Fed decision – Commerzbank

Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that markets now price nearly a 70% chance of a September Fed hike after Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech, but stresses upcoming US inflation data will be decisive. She downplays the jobs report as a linchpin and questions how long the Dollar can benefit from a potential rate hike amid renewed political risks. Dollar support may prove short-lived even if the Fed hikes "Admittedly, expectations for a hike have risen significantly once again following Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech last Friday and now stand just shy of 70%. However, there are still important data releases on the horizon that could change the picture once again." "I’m referring less to Friday’s jobs report, which may surprise some. It certainly has the potential to move the dollar. But since Warsh assumes that full employment prevails, the jobs report is unlikely to be the linchpin in the decision on whether to raise the Fed funds rate in mid-September." "Much more important will be the August inflation figures, which will be released next Friday. After all, prices rose only moderately in July, which could justify the Fed standing pat. However, the inflation rate in August may have risen more sharply again due to the renewed increase in energy prices." "Will the August rate be high enough to convince more than the three FOMC members who voted for a hike at the last rate-setting meeting - and perhaps even Warsh himself - that a rate hike is now unavoidable? That is likely to be the big question. Which is why, in my view, any back-and-forth fluctuations in the dollar in the run-up to these figures Friday next week make little sense." "But even if next week’s inflation figures turn out to be surprisingly high, interest rate expectations receive another upward push, and the Fed does indeed raise rates in mid-September, I’m not sure whether the dollar can benefit from this for long. So far, there has been no comment from the White House on Warsh’s monetary policy, but that could change with an interest rate hike. The conflict with the president's wishes could flare up again."

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Banks

September 2, 2026

British Pound: Downside risk toward 1.3480 against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD broke below its anticipated intraday range, dropping to 1.3507 as downside momentum starts to build. Intraday, they expect a bearish bias with potential tests of 1.3500 and the major 1.3480 support, provided prices stay below 1.3545. Over one to three weeks, they keep a downside risk focus, with 1.3480 as the key level unless 1.3570 resistance is breached. Pound under pressure toward support "24-HOUR VIEW: GBP traded between 1.3531 and 1.3565 two days ago and closed little changed at 1.3549 (+0.06%). Yesterday, we stated that “the price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase,” and we were of the view that GBP “could trade in a higher range of 1.3535/1.3570 today.” However, instead of trading in a range, GBP declined to a low of 1.3507. Downward momentum is building tentatively, and today we expect GBP to trade with a downside bias, potentially testing the major support at 1.3480 (there is another support level at 1.3500). To sustain the momentum build-up, GBP must hold below 1.3545, with minor resistance at 1.3530." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from Monday (31 Aug, spot at 1.3540) still stands. As highlighted, “the risk for GBP remains on the downside, and the level to watch is 1.3480.” On the upside, a breach of 1.3570 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.3600) would indicate that the downward pressure from last Friday has eased. "

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Banks

September 2, 2026

Euro: Pressured as ECB hike looms – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD slipped below 1.1600 as the US Dollar strengthened on a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and geopolitical tensions. The team highlights that Euro area inflation has moved back above 3%, reinforcing expectations for a September ECB rate hike. Manufacturing data show a rebound led by Germany, while unemployment remains historically low. Range trade as Dollar firms "In the Euro area, HICP inflation increased to 3.3% y/y (cons: 3.3%, prior: 2.9%), while core inflation declined to 2.4% (cons: 2.5%, prior: 2.5%). The increase in headline inflation was driven entirely by higher energy prices, as food inflation was unchanged and core inflation declined." "The decline in core inflation reflected lower services inflation, while goods inflation increased. Momentum in core inflation remains very low with little signs of energy prices spilling over to underlying inflation, as the 3m/3m SAAR measure edged down to 2.6% from 2.7%. With inflation back above 3%, a September hike looks like a done deal." "Also from the Euro area, final manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, broadly in line with the flash reading of 52.8. New data for Spain and Italy showed PMIs falling slightly below the 50-mark, while the German PMI was revised up to 54.3 from 54.1. Euro area manufacturing is thus showing a rebound, with Germany in the driver's seat, which is very different from what we have seen over the past couple of years." "Finally in the Euro area, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% in July (cons: 6.3%, prior: 6.4%), slightly higher than expected." "In the currency markets, the EUR/USD moved below 1.16, while yen moved above the 160-level versus the dollar. However, the movements are small."

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Energies

September 2, 2026

WTI declines to near $89.00 despite US-Iran tensions

WTI price drifts lower to near $89.10 in Wednesday’s early European session.  US crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ending August 28, API showed.   Iran launched retaliation after US strikes on IRGC targets across Iran.   West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $89.10 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. WTI declines as traders take some profits. However, the potential downside of black gold might be limited amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.  Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it has launched a “heavy” ballistic missile attack on Prince Hassan airbase and a US Marine base in Jordan in response to earlier US strikes that killed civilians.  The US military said that its forces completed a wave of strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday after what it said were attempted attacks by Iran against commercial shipping and American service members. US President Donald Trump warned of more attacks to come if Tehran responded. Escalating tensions in the Middle East could raise fears of oil supply disruption and boost the WTI price.  US crude oil inventories dropped more than expected last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending August 28 fell by 2.6 million barrels, compared to a rise of 4.2 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a decline of 800,000 barrels. Traders await the release of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is due later on Wednesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might undermine the WTI price. Energy risk premia build as US–Iran tensions expose fragile Gulf security According to TD Securities, the latest flare-up between the US and Iran underscores just how precarious the geopolitical backdrop remains for energy markets. Strategists at the bank stress that the “latest escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran continues to highlight how flimsy any deal or MoU headlines really are,” reinforcing the sense that headline-driven truces offer little durable assurance for flows through key chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive bullish bias in the near term In the daily chart, WTI US Oil sits comfortably above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger middle band, suggesting a constructive bullish bias while the uptrend remains supported by these underlying levels. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 62 points to firm but not yet extreme upside momentum as price edges closer to the upper Bollinger band. On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band near $89.55; a daily close above this cap would open the way for further gains. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day MA around $85.10, ahead of the Bollinger midline near $83.15, with the lower band down at $76.70 acting as a more distant safety net should a deeper correction unfold.

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Forex Trading

September 2, 2026

United States Dollar Index hold gains above 99.50 as Treasury yields hit multi-year highs

US Dollar Index rises on Fed rate hike fears as global bond selloff pushed US 10-year Treasury yields to 4.80%. Escalating US-Iran tensions boosted crude oil prices, amplifying concerns over persistent inflation and potential Fed tightening. BBH warns rising interest expenses will increase US Treasury term premiums, leaving the dollar vulnerable to fiscal stress. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the second successive day and trading around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The Greenback has strengthened amid rising bond yields and surging oil prices, which have reignited concerns over persistent inflation and the likelihood of potential interest rate hikes. Driven by a global bond selloff, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.80%, reaching its highest level since early 2025. Compounding these inflationary pressures, crude oil prices jumped significantly following escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran, intensifying worries over potential energy flow disruptions from the Middle East. Meanwhile, recent economic data from the US offers a mixed backdrop for broader market sentiment. July JOLTS job openings fell below market expectations at 7.27 million, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased slightly from 55.6 to 54.6 in August. Despite missing forecasts, the PMI remains firmly in expansion territory, pointing to a resilient manufacturing sector. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming ADP employment report and Friday's nonfarm payrolls to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Dollar support tempered by rising fiscal risk premium Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that Bessent has pushed back against the view that the latest rise in Treasury yields primarily reflects mounting worries over US fiscal sustainability, pointing instead to the “outperformance of US 10-year Treasuries relative to other major bond markets.” They caution, however, that this “relative outperformance does not make the fiscal risk disappear,” warning that “rising interest expense will ultimately push up the US Treasury term premium, leaving USD more vulnerable to periods of fiscal stress.”

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Markets

September 2, 2026

 XAG/USD slips below $64.00 as inflation fears increase

Silver declines as global bond selloff drives 10-year US Treasury yield to a 2025 high of 4.80%. Rising US-Iran conflict spikes crude oil prices, threatening Middle East energy supplies. Mixed US economic data leaves investors watching upcoming employment reports for Fed clues. Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $63.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding Silver declines as a global bond selloff drove the US 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.80%, hitting its highest point since early 2025. This surge in yields reignited market anxieties surrounding stubborn inflation and the possibility of further interest rate increases. Compounding these inflationary concerns, crude oil prices spiked due to intensifying geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran, which threatens energy supplies out of the Middle East. According to TD Securities, the latest flare-up between the US and Iran is reinforcing the sense that the regional backdrop remains highly unstable. Strategists there argue that the renewed tensions “continue to highlight how flimsy any deal or MoU headlines really are,” underscoring the market’s sensitivity to further disruptions and helping to sustain a risk premium across the energy complex. Meanwhile, recent economic data from the United States offered a mixed picture for investors. July JOLTS job openings fell short of expectations, landing at 7.27 million. At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in the previous month. While the PMI missed estimates, it stayed comfortably in expansion territory, indicating ongoing strength in the manufacturing domain. Market focus is now shifting to the upcoming ADP employment report and Friday's nonfarm payrolls for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's rate strategy. Fed’s Barr keeps hawkish bias as inflation risks keep rate hike option alive Fed’s Barr delivered a slightly more hawkish-than-usual message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 versus a 6.8/10 historical average, underscoring concern that inflation “remains too high” despite a stable labor market and “solid” AI-driven growth. The conditional guidance — favoring steady rates only if there is confidence inflation is moderating, but explicitly flagging a potential rate hike if it does not — reinforces an asymmetric reaction function tilted toward tightening. Overall, the tone signals a low tolerance for renewed price pressures and keeps upside risks for the Dollar intact. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.42 points to 128.86, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, while the immediate speech tone was only marginally above the established baseline in the FXS Speechtracker, the broader policy backdrop stays clearly hawkish, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still signaling a bias that supports the Dollar against lower-yielding currencies.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Gold bounces off four-week low; remains vulnerable near $4,300 amid Fed hike bets

Gold attracts some follow-through selling as oil-driven inflation risks reaffirm Fed hike bets. Escalating US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven USD, further weighing on the commodity. The market focus remains glued firmly on the release of the crucial US NFP report on Friday. Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from a nearly four-week low, which it touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, and currently trades just above the $4,300 mark, still down over 0.50% for the day. The escalating Middle East conflict lifted crude oil prices to a fresh high since July 24, stoking inflation fears and reaffirming US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets. Adding to this, some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying is seen exerting downward pressure on the bullion and should cap the upside. Tensions between the US and Iran reignited following a US strike on Iranian rocket launchers near Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. This was the first US strike since late July, prompting an Iranian counterattack on US-linked targets in the region. Adding to this, the Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Tuesday that US forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets. In response, Iran escalated the confrontation and launched heavy ballistic missile and drone attacks on American interests in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan on Wednesday. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, supporting crude oil prices and the safe-haven Greenback. Meanwhile, investors remain worried that elevated energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the US Fed, to adopt a more hawkish stance. Adding to this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday continue to fuel expectations of a rate hike in September. Furthermore, concerns about fiscal debt led to a deepening global bond market sell-off, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury to its highest level since January 2025. This is seen as another factor that continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding Gold and backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move. US 10-year yields seen grinding toward 5% Societe Generale’s rates strategists warn that the latest sell-off leaves the US curve vulnerable to further upside in long-end yields, noting that “at this pace, US 10s are on track for 5%.” They frame the move as part of an ongoing bear steepening, with investors increasingly testing how much additional term premium the market will demand as policy expectations remain skewed toward further Fed tightening. Traders, however, might opt to wait for the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial labor market data will be looked at for more cues about the Fed's future policy outlook, which, in turn, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Hence, any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out quickly. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis An intraday break below the 50% retracement level of the recent recovery from the year-to-date low, touched in July, could be seen as a key trigger for XAU/USD bears. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is deeply negative and below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 44, hinting at fading bullish momentum. However, some follow-through selling below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,276 is needed to back the case for further losses. The said support is followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at around $4,236, which, if broken, would expose the 78.6% retracement near $4,111 and the prior swing low region around $3,952. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement near $4,324, ahead of a tighter hurdle at the 38.2% retracement around $4,412, with a stronger barrier further up at the 23.6% level near $4,521.

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Energies

September 2, 2026

Heating Oil Surges to Record High

US heating oil prices surged past $4.70 per gallon in early September, hitting a fresh record and leaving prices about 100% higher than a year earlier amid tightening distillate markets. Supply risks have intensified as escalating tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have further constrained global refining capacity. US refinery utilization has now remained at or above 95% for 12 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since 2000, indicating that refiners are already operating near capacity with limited room to increase output. Industry data showed that US distillate inventories fell by 300,000 barrels in the week ending August 28, leaving stockpiles under pressure ahead of the winter heating season. Broader refined-fuel markets are also signaling tight conditions, with US diesel futures reaching a 52-month high and the diesel crack spread climbing to a record level.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Platinum Hits 2-Week Low

Platinum futures fell below $1,740 an ounce, hitting a two-week low as rising global bond yields and a stronger US dollar weighed across the precious metals complex. The escalating conflict between the US and Iran continued to push oil prices higher, fueling concerns that persistent inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month. The greenback strengthened as markets now see a roughly 70% chance of a September rate hike, up sharply from around 40% a week earlier, while the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.8%, near a three-year high. Meanwhile, platinum’s mine supply remains constrained, while industrial demand is expected to rise 9% this year to 2.24 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council. Valterra Platinum highlighted China’s rapidly expanding hydrogen-truck sector as a new demand catalyst, with potential global demand estimated at around 6 million ounces if hydrogen trucks reach a 20% share of the global fleet.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Nickel Falls to Over 1-Month Low

Nickel traded around $16,600 per tonne, reaching its lowest level since early July, as ample near-term supply weighed on prices. Indonesia imported 11.4 million tonnes of nickel ore from the Philippines in January-July, up from 6.82 million tonnes a year earlier, indicating continued feedstock availability for Indonesian smelters despite tighter mining quotas. Additionally, MHP supply recovered somewhat as sulfur arrivals improved production at some Indonesian projects, while weak nickel sulfate prices pressured payables, suggesting tighter ore availability has yet to cause a broad shortage across the processing chain. At the same time, LME nickel inventories rose to 268,314 tonnes at end-August, keeping a sizeable stock overhang. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 2026 mining quota is reportedly down to 260–270 million tonnes from 379 million tonnes in 2025, while producers are considering HPAL cuts of around 30%, which could further limit downside if implemented.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Palm Oil Retreats on Weak Demand, Heavy Supply

Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,950 per tonne, ending their recent rally as weaker edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges weighed on sentiment. Weak exports added pressure, with cargo surveyors estimating Malaysian palm oil shipments fell 6.5%–14.9% in August from the prior month. Ample supply also remained a concern, with inventories rising to a five-month high in July. Meanwhile, EU palm oil imports for the 2026/27 season, which began in July, plunged 21% yoy, pointing to weaker demand from a key market. Demand from India could face headwinds as refiners favour cheaper soyoil, although expectations for strong August vegetable oil imports may provide some support. Losses were partly cushioned by a weaker ringgit, which makes palm oil cheaper for overseas buyers. Firmer oil prices provided further support amid concerns over supply disruptions, while rising El Niño risks raised worries about drier conditions and potential production losses across Southeast Asia.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Copper Falls on Demand Concerns

Copper fell toward $6.4 per pound on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in a month as rising oil prices and global bond yields kept inflationary risks and interest rate concerns in focus, weighing on the demand outlook. Oil prices advanced for a third consecutive session amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, complicating efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Global bond yields climbed on mounting inflationary pressures and worsening fiscal conditions, reinforcing expectations that major central banks may need to raise interest rates soon. Higher borrowing costs could eventually slow global economic growth, dampening demand for industrial metals such as copper. Still, tight global copper supply offered some support, with top producer Chile reporting a 9.4% decline in output in July. Traders also continued redirecting copper shipments toward the US ahead of potential new import tariffs, with the White House yet to make a decision on the issue.

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Energies

September 2, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Rise

US natural gas prices rose to $2.94/MMBtu, reaching their highest level in nearly eight weeks, as hot weather persisted and LNG export activity strengthened. Forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain mostly above normal across the central US through mid-September, likely keeping demand for gas-fired power generation elevated. At the same time, average gas flows to the nine major LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd in early September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, as Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi facility and Freeport LNG in Texas returned to full operations following maintenance. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border, although no significant operational disruptions were reported at LNG facilities in the region so far. On the supply side, production in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 111.5 bcfd in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, keeping the market well supplied and limiting the upside for prices.

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Energies

September 2, 2026

Coal Hits 11-Week High

Coal prices rallied to around $145 per ton in early September, reaching their highest levels in eleven weeks amid robust global energy demand and persistent supply risks. The fossil fuel also advanced despite China reporting that solar power had become the country’s single largest source of electricity capacity, surpassing coal-fired power for the first time amid its push toward renewable energy. Still, coal remains the world’s largest source of power generation, producing nearly 11,000 TWh in 2026, while surging electricity demand is slowing efforts to replace the fuel with renewable energy. The IEA also expects coal to remain the largest single source of power generation through 2030, with no individual alternative expected to come close to replacing it. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has tightened global LNG supplies and driven energy prices higher, further strengthened the outlook for coal demand.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Global bond market sell off

Key takeaways The UK’s debt servicing bill spirals How to stabilise the bond market Budget looms for Healey and Burnham BOE set to keep rates on hold, yet Gilts get caught in the crossfire Ceasefire in the Middle East could be the only way to calm bond markets Global bond market sell off haunts markets Global sovereign bonds are selling off as we start a new month. The UK is, unsurprisingly, taking the biggest hit. Two and 10-year yields rose by 10 basis points at one point on Tuesday, and are currently higher by 7 and 8bps respectively. The UK’s debt servicing bill spirals UK 10-year yields are at their highest levels for nearly 20 years, while 30-year yields are at their highest level for nearly 30 years. This poses a major challenge for the chancellor ahead of next month’s budget. Every basis point increase in the cost of borrowing in the UK adds to debt servicing costs, which needs to be paid by the public purse. Since the Spring, the UK’s interest only bill has risen by up to £6bn by the end of this parliament. This is a large hole for the Chancellor to fill next month. The UK is well used to pockets of Gilt market volatility, but today’s massive jump in yields, could sting for the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, who will face MPs at the commons later today. Increasingly, Labour backbenchers’ spending demands look unfeasible and unaffordable. Soon-to-be former MP Kier Starmer and Rachel Reeves could not push through relatively small spending cuts in recent years; unless Healey and Burnham can bite the bullet and slow down spending growth or make cuts, then UK borrowing costs will continue to rise. How to stabilise the bond market The global backdrop is not looking good for highly indebted countries. Japanese bonds were the first to sell off on Tuesday, and US Treasuries needed the US to provide a $1 trillion facility to stabilise yields. So, what can the UK do?The BOE could slow down its bond sales further, however, there is a limit to how much the BOE can intervene, as any threat to the BOE’s independence could aggravate the Gilt market even more. Of greater importance for the bond market is the upcoming budget. If bond yields continue to rise then the chancellor will be forced to focus on spending cuts, not giveaways on October 28th. Even if Burnham funds spending by new tax hikes, this may not tame the bond market, since it will lead to more fears about the UK’s economic growth. Budget looms for Healey and Burnham The chancellor and the PM are in a tricky position as we lead up to the Budget. The bond market vigilantes are watching every move Burnham makes. The UK Gilt market will act as a mirror to how well they can execute this Budget when the UK has a debt load that is close to £3trillion, and a debt interest bill of £109bn a year. Oil price dents bond market sentiment Rising oil prices are partly to blame for rising yields on Tuesday. The Brent crude oil price is up by nearly 2% again on Tuesday, and is trading above $92 per barrel. This is an increase of 6% in less than a week. Fears about inflation are leading to a repricing of interest rate risk. Rates are expected to rise in Japan and the Eurozone this month, with a 66% chance of a hike from the Federal Reserve after Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ Jackson Hole speech opened the door to near term hikes. BOE set to stay on hold, yet Gilts get caught in the crossfire Ironically, although UK yields have underperformed peers on Tuesday, the BOE is not expected to hike interest rates this month, with only a 15% chance of a hike priced in, although this could rise as we lead up to the meeting on September 17th, especially if oil prices continue moving higher. However, this puts even more pressure on the government to make fiscal adjustments to ease pressure on Gilt yields. Ceasefire in the Middle East could be the only way to calm bond markets Today’s rout in sovereign bond markets is souring sentiment towards stocks. European markets are down sharply, including a 1.25% decline for the Dax. US indices are pointing to a lower open later today, and Nasdaq futures are currently predicting a 1.15% drop. So far, the sell off in UK Gilts is not spreading to other UK asset classes, the FTSE 100 is outperforming peers on Tuesday, and the pound remains above $1.35 vs. the USD, and is a mid-table performer in the G7 FX space. It is worth noting that a ceasefire in the Middle East could reverse this move in oil prices and in bond markets, but until this happens it could be a choppy start to the month. Chart 1: Brent crude oil price Source: XTB

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Coffee Prices Pressured by Rising Supplies

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down -2.05 (-0.66%) on Tuesday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed down -68 (-1.93%). Coffee prices settled lower on Tuesday, with arabica falling to a 1-month low and robusta sliding to a 2.75-month low.  Coffee prices have sold off sharply over the past week on the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to add more supply to the market.  Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as space fills up, suggesting farmers holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to increase coffee sales as storage space dwindles.  Above-normal rainfall in Brazil may benefit flowering for next year’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 8.9 mm of rain, or 127% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 30 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Last Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.75-month high and robusta posted a 3-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  Safras & Mercado reported on Monday that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% completed as of August 26, behind 100% last year and the 5-year average of 98%. Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 96% complete, behind last year's 99%.  Also, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported last Wednesday that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 21, up 6 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 91.3% a year earlier. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 223,911 bags on Tuesday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9.25-month high of 4,956 lots on Tuesday. Coffee prices also have support from the devastating earthquake last month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report on August 13 quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Cocoa Prices Fall on Larger Supplies from the Ivory Coast

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed down -200 (-2.95%) on Tuesday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed down -42 (-0.86%). Cocoa prices retreated on Tuesday, with London cocoa falling from an 11-month high.   Larger supplies from the Ivory Coast pressured cocoa prices on Tuesday.  Cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 30, 2026), up +19% from the same period a year ago.  Also, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, said on Tuesday that it aims to boost the country’s cocoa processing capacity to 1.3 MMT in 2026/27 from 650,000 MT in 2025/26.    Losses in London cocoa were limited on Tuesday after the British pound (^GBPUSD) fell to a 2-week low.  The weaker pound boosts cocoa that is priced in sterling. Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,411,776 bags on Tuesday. Cocoa prices have strengthened over the past week, with NY cocoa posting an 11-month high on Monday and London cocoa posting an 11-month high on Tuesday.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices.  Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins this month.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  On July 21, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

September 2, 2026

Sugar Prices Rally on the Outlook for a Global Deficit

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.55 (+3.09%) on Tuesday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +19.60 (+3.81%). Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Tuesday after the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projected a global sugar deficit.  ISO on Tuesday projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT after a projected +1.1 MMT surplus for 2025/26.  Sugar prices have rallied sharply over the past month, with NY sugar posting a 16.5-month high last Friday and London sugar posting a 17-month high on Aug 20.  The European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said last Thursday that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT.  Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Thursday projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/25 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.  Sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. An excessively long position by funds in London sugar could exacerbate any long liquidation pressures. Last Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed funds boosted their long positions in London ICE white sugar by 2,830 net-long positions in the week ended Aug 25 to a record 70,766, the most since data began in 2011. India’s Meteorological Department reported on Monday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 14% below normal as of August 31, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  On July 31, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move is a further sign of the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and a global sugar surplus.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and projects a 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate of 1.1 MMT, down from a May forecast of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1% y/y to 180.1 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -200,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Softs

September 2, 2026

Cotton Falls Back Lower

Cotton posted Turnaround Tuesday losses of 115 to 169 points at the Tuesday close.  Crude oil was $4.92 per barrel higher on the day, with the US dollar index up $0.235. Weekly Crop Progress data showed 89% of the US cotton setting bolls as of Sunday, with 29% of the crop with bolls opening. Condition ratings were pegged at 39% good/excellent, up 2  percentage points on the week. The Brugler500 index was down another 2 points to 302 as poor/very poor ratings were up 3%. Ratings in Texas slipped another 2 points to 260. The Seam reported sales of 75 bales on August 31 at an average price of 85.63 cents/lb. ICE certified cotton stocks were unchanged bales on Monday, with the certified stocks level at 63,178 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by another 190 points last week to 71.52 cents/lb.  Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 90.01, down 169 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 91.55, down 159 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 93.68, down 146 points

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Gold Drops 1.5% – Are Precious Metals Heading Lower Again?

The rise in oil prices is putting pressure on the precious metals market today, with gold down nearly 1.5% and silver falling close to 2.5%. The move comes alongside higher bond yields and growing expectations for faster interest-rate hikes in the U.S. Volatility may increase this afternoon when the U.S. JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing data are released at 3 PM GMT. Weaker data could support precious metals, while stronger readings and a high manufacturing prices index could theoretically favor sellers. Gold’s weakness began after weekend comments from Kevin Warsh revived concerns about the future path of U.S. interest rates. Despite short-term pressure from higher yields and expectations for a more restrictive Fed, long-term structural demand for gold remains very strong. According to the latest World Gold Council data, central banks bought a net 289 tonnes of gold in Q2, more than five times the 57 tonnes purchased in Q1 and the highest figure ever recorded for a second quarter. A WGC survey shows that 45% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months. Purchases are broadly distributed geographically, suggesting that demand is not being driven by just one or two major buyers. The People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 20 tonnes in July to a record 2,377.5 tonnes. In total, China has added 60 tonnes so far in 2026. Poland has been even more aggressive, increasing its reserves by 82 tonnes this year to 632 tonnes. Even during price corrections, gold continues to benefit from very strong institutional demand from central banks. GOLD chart (D1 interval) Gold is defending its 200-day exponential moving average today, a key technical level separating the broader bearish and bullish trends. A close below $4,350 per ounce could point to more prolonged weakness in precious metals. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

September 1, 2026

Eurozone Inflation Comes In Below Forecasts, Unemployment Rises. EUR/USD reacts

The euro is recovering slightly after its recent losses despite unfavorable data from the euro area, where CPI inflation rose at a slower pace than expected and the unemployment rate increased to 6.4%, exceeding forecasts. Eurozone – CPI inflation y/y rose to 3.3%, in line with forecasts, from 2.9% previously. Eurozone – CPI inflation m/m came in at 0.4% versus 0.5% expected and 0.2% previously. Eurozone – core CPI inflation y/y fell to 2.4% versus 2.5% expected and 2.5% previously. Eurozone – the unemployment rate increased to 6.4% versus 6.3% expected and 6.3% previously. EURUSD (M15 interval) Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

September 1, 2026

Currency Talk – GBP/AUD, EUR/GBP, GBP/CAD

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises solely the Overbalance methodology, which enables the identification of points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of their 1:1 correction patterns GBPAUD The GBPAUD exchange rate remains within a long-term downtrend. In June and July this year, we observed an attempt to break out of the green geometric pattern, the upper boundary of which was at the 1.9190 level. However, the price failed to break above this level on a sustained basis and, furthermore, did not breach the 127.2% retracement level of the entire green correction – a breach of which would have been required to trigger a shift to an uptrend. The price therefore returned within the pattern below the 1.9190 level and subsequently extended its downward movement. Furthermore, the local upward trend line drawn from the May low was negated, with its lower boundary at the 1.9111 level. According to the Overbalance methodology, this increases the likelihood of a further deepening of the decline towards the mid-May low, i.e. around 1.8584. GBPAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation5 EURGBP The EURGBP exchange rate has been on a downward trend since November 2025. The largest correction, which may contain the entire downward move, is approximately 170 pips and is marked in red. If the current upward correction continues, the key resistance level remains at 0.8630, which marks the upper boundary of the aforementioned pattern. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price remains within the red pattern, the downtrend remains in place. Only a sustained break above 0.8630 could alter the current scenario. EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation5 GBP/CAD GBPCAD prices followed an upward trend from May to July, after which a significant correction took place; we are now seeing a shift in sentiment according to the Overbalance methodology. Currently, the largest correction within the local downtrend is the pattern marked in red, with its upper boundary at 1.8924. Despite the lack of significant downward momentum, the price remains within this pattern; therefore, the main scenario anticipates a move towards the low of 29 July, around 1.8710. Conversely, for a return to an uptrend to be considered, the price would need to break above the 1.8924 level on a sustained basis. GBPCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Chart of the Day – DE40 Falls for a Second Straight Session – Dismal German Retail Sales Data.

German retail sales disappointed sharply in July, falling 3.4% m/m versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. This was a significant downside surprise, pointing to weaker private consumption. Moreover, Destatis revised the June reading to 0.0% m/m from the previously reported 0.7% decline. The weak data are not encouraging for equities and the valuations of companies focused mainly on the German market, although DAX and MDAX companies appear less exposed to any further deterioration in domestic demand in Germany. Even so, DE40 is posting its second declining session this week. The biggest drag came from petrol stations, where sales fell 9.1% m/m after a fuel discount that had been in place in May and June expired. On a year-over-year basis, petrol station sales were down 9.3%. The non-food segment also looked weak, with sales falling as much as 4.8% m/m. Also somewhat concerning, online and mail-order sales declined 5.6% m/m and 0.8% y/y. Real food sales fell more moderately, by 0.8% m/m and 0.3% year over year. Overall retail sales were 2.5% lower in July than a year earlier. The data suggest that weakness in the German consumer remains an important issue for the economy. Part of the July decline was admittedly one-off in nature, linked to the expiry of the fuel discount, but the broad weakness in non-food retail and e-commerce shows that the pressure was not limited to fuel alone. DE40 (D1 interval) The DAX futures contract is falling for a second consecutive session and has moved back below 26,200 points. Nevertheless, despite the weak start to the week, the contract remains within an upward price channel, while investors’ reaction to rather worrying signals from the industrial sector, which continues to face pressure from high energy costs, appears relatively calm. Source: xStation5

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Dow Jones futures fall as surging oil prices stoke inflation concerns

Dow Jones futures slip as soaring energy costs renewed inflation fears and pushed Treasury yields higher. Traders increased bets on a September Federal Reserve rate hike following recent hawkish signals from Fed officials. Wall Street opened the week lower, with investors bracing for manufacturing data and Friday’s crucial August jobs report. Dow Jones futures fall by 0.45% to trade near 53,000 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline by 0.5%, to trade around 7,660, while Nasdaq 100 futures lose 0.83% to trade around 29,270. US stock futures slid as investors absorbed a sudden surge in oil prices driven by renewed conflict in the Middle East. The resulting spike in energy costs has reignited inflation fears, driving Treasury yields upward and firming market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September. Traders rapidly increased their bets on a rate increase following recent comments from Fed officials, who signaled that further tightening remains on the table until inflation moves convincingly back toward the central bank's 2% target. This pre-market pressure follows a weak start to the trading week on Wall Street, where all three major indices closed lower on Monday. The Dow Jones led the declines with a 0.7% drop, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.33% and 0.12%, respectively. Markets remain on edge as investors brace for a dense slate of economic data that will offer fresh clues about the trajectory of monetary policy. Key reports on U.S. manufacturing and services sector activity are expected later today, setting the stage for Friday's critical August Nonfarm Payrolls report.

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Banks

September 1, 2026

Polish Zloty: Fiscal risks cap gains against Euro – Societe Generale

Societe Generale notes that the Polish Zloty strengthened while domestic bonds sold off as August inflation and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded expectations and the government presented its 2027 budget. The draft foresees a 7.1% of GDP deficit and a tax overhaul shifting burden toward corporates, raising concerns about ratings risks and borrowing costs despite recent supportive macro data for EUR/PLN and POLGB yields. Zloty firms as fiscal deficit looms "In Poland, the zloty strengthened and domestic bonds sold off yesterday after inflation and GDP both exceeded expectations and the government unveiled details of its 2027 budget." "Headline inflation accelerated to a 14-month high of 3.4% in August from 3.0% in July. Final 2Q GDP was revised up by 0.1pp to 1.0% qoq (3.9% yoy). The data lifted the 10y POLGB yield above 6.0% for the first time since January 2025." "EUR/PLN retreated below 4.33 from the verge of 4.35. The draft budget projects a fiscal deficit of 7.1% of GDP, broadly unchanged from the expected 2026 level. It also includes a tax overhaul aimed at easing the burden on middle-income households through higher corporate taxation, delivering on a key campaign promise ahead of next year’s elections." "PM Tusk had sought to keep the deficit below 7% but argued that doing so would come at the expense of economic growth. Rating agencies have previously warned that the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan could raise the risk of a downgrade and higher borrowing costs."

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Banks

September 1, 2026

CEE FX: Hawkish repricing supports regional currencies – ING

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky reports that Polish inflation surprised to 3.4% on higher fuel prices, while food prices fell, and a busy data calendar looms for Central and Eastern Europe. He notes regional markets have shifted back into hawkish mode after recent Federal Reserve comments and geopolitical tensions, with Czech and Polish curves pricing multiple hikes, which should limit further CEE FX weakness. Inflation data and rate expectations in CEE "Regional markets are firmly back in hawkish mode following the Fed chair’s comments and renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict. With UK markets closed yesterday and CEE trading subdued, some catch-up is likely today." "Polish inflation surprised to the upside in August, rising from 3.0% to 3.4%, mainly due to higher fuel prices, as the statistics office likely did not account for the government’s VAT reduction in the latter part of the month. By contrast, food prices fell further, offering a dovish signal for inflation elsewhere in the region." "On Thursday, the Czech Republic will release second-quarter wage data, where we expect growth to slow from the unexpectedly strong 8.1% recorded in the first quarter. Turkey’s August inflation is also due; we forecast only a modest decline from 1.8% to 1.6% month on month." "On Friday, Czech inflation should rise from 1.7% to 1.9%, in line with the central bank's forecast, while the Czech Republic and Hungary will publish retail sales data." "The Czech market is still pricing in almost four rate hikes and the Polish market nearly three, which should limit further weakening and could support gains today given further widening of rate differentials versus euro."

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Banks

September 1, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI tightening path seen shallow – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered strategists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deliver a total of 50bps of repo rate hikes in FY27, split between October and December 2026, citing resilient activity and hawkish August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes. They highlight upside risks if inflation surprises higher, but still see a shallow hiking cycle, framing the moves as policy normalization from current levels. Repo hikes seen as normalization "We now forecast 50bps of repo rate hikes (previously: on hold), split equally between October and December 2026, against a backdrop of resilient economic activity and hawkish August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes." "With most members explicitly open to a scenario of higher rates if inflationary pressures become generalised, an earlier hike now appears probable." "Most notably, the RBI governor stated that as inflation normalises from 2% last year towards 5% in FY27, a recalibration of the repo rate from 5.25% may be needed." "We see two risks to our call for 50bps of repo rate hikes. First, if inflationary pressures are stronger than expected – for example owing to continued geopolitical tensions – we could see one or two additional hikes. Currently, our FY27 CPI forecast is at 4.9%. Second, the MPC could begin hiking in December rather than October. However, waiting until December could make its reaction function appear delayed, in our view, as the inflation print immediately after the October MPC meeting is likely to rise above 5%. " "Overall, while we expect rate increases and see upside risk to the number of hikes if inflation is higher, we expect the current hiking cycle to remain shallow."

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Banks

September 1, 2026

Euro: Proactive ECB seen as supportive – Commerzbank

Michael Pfister at Commerzbank notes that several central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have already raised rates following the inflation shock linked to the Iran conflict. He stresses that markets reward central banks that react proactively rather than label shocks as transitory. For the Euro, he views the ECB’s more forceful stance as a positive sign after years of disappointment. ECB reaction improves Euro’s standing "In recent weeks, expectations regarding central banks worldwide have been revised to varying degrees following a significant shift towards higher interest rates in the aftermath of the conflict in Iran. But several central banks have already delivered rate hikes since the conflict began." "While we do not currently expect this from the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have already raised interest rates since the start of the conflict. Admittedly, inflation risks in Australia had already risen significantly prior to the war, which also explains the three rate rises that have already taken place." "But it is also clear that central banks which proactively react to an inflation shock - rather than describing it as transitory - will be rewarded by the market in the medium term. Should another shock occur, market participants would probably expect these central banks to respond more forcefully." "For the euro, this is a positive sign after many years of disappointment, as the ECB has not traditionally been known for taking proactive action."

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Disastrous German Retail Sales Data. Is the Economy Losing Momentum?

German retail sales disappointed sharply in July, falling 3.4% m/m versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. This was a significant downside surprise, pointing to weaker private consumption. Moreover, Destatis revised the June reading to 0.0% m/m from the previously reported 0.7% decline. The weak data are not encouraging for equities and the valuations of companies focused mainly on the German market, although DAX and MDAX companies appear much less exposed to any further deterioration in domestic demand in Germany. The biggest drag came from petrol stations, where sales fell 9.1% m/m after a fuel discount that had been in place in May and June expired. On a year-over-year basis, petrol station sales were down 9.3%. The non-food segment also looked weak, with sales falling as much as 4.8% m/m. Also somewhat concerning, online and mail-order sales declined 5.6% m/m and 0.8% y/y. Real food sales fell more moderately, by 0.8% m/m and 0.3% year over year. Overall retail sales were 2.5% lower in July than a year earlier. The data suggest that weakness in the German consumer remains an important issue for the economy. Part of the July decline was admittedly one-off in nature, linked to the expiry of the fuel discount, but the broad weakness in non-food retail and e-commerce shows that the pressure was not limited to fuel alone.

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Banks

September 1, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations shape FX – MUFG

Michael Wan at MUFG notes continued dispersion in Asia FX, with USD/JPY trading just below 160. NHK reports US officials urging Japan to raise interest rates, while markets already price a 92% chance of a September Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike. Communication on the full path of rate increases is seen as key for Japanese Yen (JPY) and JGB sentiment. BoJ path in focus "In Asia, we had continued dispersion across currencies driven by the factors mentioned above, with USD/JPY a touch below 160, KRW outperforming with USD/KRW below 1370, with some underperformance in PHP." "NHK reported that US Secretary Scott Bessent told Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda that Japan’s next step should be to raise interest rates, on the sidelines of the G20 finance minister and central bank governor meeting in North Carolina. " "Overall, with markets already pricing in a 92% chance of a September rate hike by BoJ, what matters more may not just be the September meeting but also communication about the whole path of rate hikes in upcoming BoJ meetings."

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Markets

September 1, 2026

XAG/USD looks for direction above key support at $65.50 area

XAG/USD is trading in a narrow range between Monday's high, at $67.47, and key support at $65.50. Precious metals are looking for direction as investors await key US releases for further insight about the Fed's monetary policy. Silver is holding above an ascending trendline support from late July lows. Silver (XAG/USD) remains practically flat on Tuesday, holding most of Friday’s losses and trading at $66.60 at the time of writing, with price action contained within the previous day’s range. The broader bullish trend from late July lows remains in play, but failure to breach Monday’s high, at $67.47, might increase pressure on a key support area around $65.50. Precious metals are looking for direction in a calm trading session on Tuesday, with US Dollar volatility subdued. The impulse from the US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments on Friday has worn off, and investors await key employment data due later this week for a better assessment of the outcome of September’s monetary policy decision. Technical Analysis: Holding above the ascending trendline support XAG/USD trades at $66.47, following a sharp reversal from the $71.00 area last week. The near-term structure remains positive, but Friday's bearish engulfing candle is an important bearish sign, and a clear break of the $65.50 area where trendline support crosses Monday's low would confirm a deeper reversal. Momentum indicators in the daily chart offer a mixed picture, with the Relative Strength Index (14) mildly positive above the 50 level, whereas the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative, reinforcing the idea of a waning bullish phase and increasing risk of a corrective pullback. Bulls should break Monday's high at $67.47 to shift the focus again towards the resistance area between the mid-June highs, at $71.75 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.64. On the downside, below the mentioned $65.50 area, bears might be attracted by the August 19 low, at the $62.20 area.

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Banks

September 1, 2026

Brent Oil: Geopolitics delay supply recovery – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong raise their end-2026 Brent forecast to USD 80/bbl from USD 75/bbl as Middle East supply disruptions prove more prolonged. They note falling inventories, rising transport costs and emerging diesel shortages as key constraints. Brent has traded above USD 90/bbl on escalating US–Iran tensions and persistent risks around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher path on Middle East risks "Brent crude rose above USD90/bbl overnight as Middle East tensions escalated, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in roughly a month and new concerns emerging over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.", "More than five months into the Middle East conflict, oil prices remain driven by geopolitics. We raise our end-2026 Brent forecast to USD80/bbl from USD75/bbl, reflecting a slower recovery in Middle East supply as US-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled." "Inventories are falling, transport costs are rising, and diesel shortages are emerging as the key constraint, keeping geopolitical risk firmly embedded in prices." "The oil market has largely adjusted to crude supply disruptions, but only by depleting buffers. The key bottleneck is no longer crude. It is diesel."

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Banks

September 1, 2026

Equities: Geopolitics and yields pressure stocks – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that global equities ended August on a softer footing as escalating US-Iran tensions and a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh weighed on risk sentiment. The S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 declined on Monday, while tech stocks proved relatively resilient as semiconductor shares stabilized. The cautious tone carried into Asian markets overnight, with most major indices trading modestly lower. Higher yields pressure US equities "Markets finished August on a softer note with equities and bonds weighed down on Monday by the weekend escalation between the US and Iran, having also lost ground last Friday following a hawkish speech from Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole." "Monday’s challenging geopolitical backdrop weighed on equities on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 falling -0.33% after a -0.36% decline Friday, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 slumped by -0.62% (after +0.51% Friday)." "Tech stocks saw a slightly better performance yesterday, with the Nasdaq down -0.12% after -0.52% Friday, which was thanks to a stabilization in the Philly semiconductor index (+0.57%) after its -3.47% slump on Friday. Remaining tech earnings this week include Palo Alto Networks and Dell today, as well as Broadcom and Snowflake tomorrow." "Cautious risk sentiment has largely carried over into Asian markets overnight with major indices posting modest declines. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-1.00%) is the biggest underperformer while the KOSPI (-0.08%), Nikkei (-0.26%), the CSI 300 (-0.06%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.32%) are all trading slightly in the red as well."

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September 1, 2026

British Pound: Downside risk focuses on 1.3480 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that GBP/USD remains in a short-term range after last week’s sharp drop, with intraday trade expected between 1.3535 and 1.3570. Despite deeply oversold conditions limiting sustained declines, they still see downside risk toward 1.3480 over the next 1–3 weeks, as long as the British Pound (GBP) stays below 1.3600. Longer-term, the pair is seen range-trading. Pound holds range but bias still lower "24-HOUR VIEW: After GBP fell sharply to a low of 1.3527 last Friday, we indicated yesterday that “conditions remain deeply oversold, and further sustained decline appears unlikely.” We also highlighted that GBP “may edge lower, but any decline should remain within a range of 1.3520/1.3570.” GBP subsequently traded between 1.3531 and 1.3565, closing little changed at 1.3549 (+0.06%). The price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase. That said, the firmer underlying tone suggests GBP could trade in a higher range of 1.3535/1.3570 today." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: While we highlighted last Friday (28 Aug, spot at 1.3595) that GBP “could edge lower,” we were of the view that “any decline could be contained within a 1.3550/1.3645 range.” After GBP dropped to a low of 1.3527, we highlighted yesterday (31 Aug, spot at 1.3540) that “the risk remains on the downside, and the level to watch is 1.3480.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as GBP holds below 1.3600 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level)."

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Banks

September 1, 2026

Euro: Modest rebound against US Dollar as yields rise – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD has modestly rebounded above 1.16 following recent Dollar strength after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They also highlight contained underlying inflation pressures across major euro-area economies, while markets await the region’s flash inflation, unemployment and final manufacturing PMI data. Pair recovers above 1.16 level "In the euro area, we receive the flash inflation data for August. National releases from France and Spain were broadly as expected in headline terms, while the German print came in slightly lower than expected." "In Germany, HICP inflation increased to 2.9% y/y in August (cons: 3.1%, prior: 2.8%), slightly below expectations. The details showed higher energy and core goods inflation, while services and food inflation declined, leaving core CPI unchanged at 2.4% y/y. " "Goods prices increased strongly for the second consecutive month, suggesting we are starting to see some indirect effects from higher energy prices, but services momentum remained very low at 0.15% m/m s.a. Overall, core inflation momentum is still contained at 2.5% 3m/3m SAAR, indicating that energy prices are not transmitting broadly to underlying inflation - similar to the picture in France and Spain last week." "Importantly, underlying inflation pressures remained contained across the three countries: core inflation either declined or was unchanged with a continued muted momentum. This suggests that the energy price shock has not yet spilled over to underlying inflation. We therefore expect headline inflation to rise to 3.2% y/y, while core inflation should decline to 2.4% y/y." "In the currency market there was a modest rebound in the EURUSD, which is back above 1.16, while USDJPY moved below 160 after the strengthening of the dollar on the back Fed Chairman Warsh's speech on Friday at the conference at Jackson Hole." "Also from the euro area, we get data on unemployment which is expected to stay at 6.3% and the final manufacturing PMI for August that is expected to confirm the flash release of 52.8."

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Markets

September 1, 2026

September risks rise: rate hikes, oil prices and bond yields, plus, the end of an era for Apple

Key takeaways September, the month for rate hikes Japanese bonds no longer risk free asset If Shein was a tech company… September could be a tough month for risk A short-lived resumption of hostilities The end of an era at Apple Tesla outperforms the market G20 meeting and the FX impact Stocks are pointing to a lower open in Europe later today, as the oil price continues to climb, and bond yields also jump. The Brent crude oil price is back above $91 per barrel, as tensions between Iran and the US heat up. A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, which adds to supply fears as we start a new month. September, the month for rate hikes September will also be a big month for the global bond markets. The Bank of Japan and the ECB are expected to raise interest rates in the coming weeks, while there is a growing chance that the Fed could join them. Japanese bonds no longer risk free asset Bond yields are rising on Tuesday and have been led higher by the Japanese 10-year yield, which crossed the 3% barrier overnight. The rapid rise in Japanese yields could soon see Japanese debt yield more than European debt. Germany’s 10-year yield is currently only 33bps higher than Japan’s 10-year yield, which highlights the major shift in fiscal risk that we have seen in recent months. Japanese debt has been virtually risk free for decades, that is now changing and it will have repercussions for global markets. While we do not believe that it will lead to a stampede back into Japanese assets by domestic investors, the Nikkei could well be supported in the coming months, and the yen could also rise, however, it is lower on Tuesday, as the USD makes a comeback. If Shein was a tech company… Elsewhere, Shein’s market debut in Hong Kong has flopped. The stock is down 9% already, after raising $1.74bn in its initial listing. The company had originally planned to list in London, back when the company was valued by private markets at $100bn in 2023. However, the company has seen its valuation fall by nearly three quarters since then to $26.5bn. If Shein was a tech company, this IPO could have been different, and the stock price may have surged as demand for AI remains robust. However, today’s price action suggests that fast fashion is out of fashion right now. Overall, August was a good month for risk seekers, especially in the US and Asia. Tech roared back to life, and helped the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq post their first monthly gain since May. The Dow Jones posted its fifth monthly gain in a row last month. Fiscal concerns and volatility caused by the on-again-off-again negotiations between the US and Iran barely dented risk sentiment. September could be a tough month for risk However, September comes with a whole new set of challenges. Firstly, the US and Iran resumed trading fire at the start of the week, after a month of no physical hostilities. This is boosting the energy sector, which was the best performer in the US at the start of the week. In recent weeks investors had got used to the conflict in Iran shifting to an economic stand off between the two sides. However, the tit-for-tat strikes in recent days is another risk that investors need to price in, especially since September is seasonally a weak month for stocks. A short-lived resumption of hostilities For now, we think that the resumption of the bombing will be short lived. Although President Trump said that he would continue to strike Iran, Tehran authorities said that their attacks on US airbases in Jordan would be limited and contained. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that the US would win the war through economic sanctions, as he talked down the possibility of prolonged military conflict. We are now just two months away from the US Mid-Term elections, and President Trump shows no sign of scaling back the war in Iran to win votes, even though the conflict is not popular at home. This could trigger volatility in the coming weeks, as investors fret that elevated oil prices could be here to stay. Overall, as long as the oil price remains below $100 per barrel, and for as long as oil supplies are plentiful, as they are now, we think that the economy can withstand the pain from a prolonged conflict between Iran and the US. The end of an era at Apple Today is not just the start of September, it is also the end of an era at Apple. Tin Cook, Steve Jobs’ successor, is stepping down as CEO and handing the reins to John Ternus. Under Cook’s tenure Apple’s stock price rose more than 2000%, so he can leave with his head held high. The stock price dropped by 0.8% on Monday, after it was reported that another senior executive was leaving, this time the head of the App Store. The stock price sold off mildly overnight, as the market digests this news. It suggests that there will be major personnel changes at Apple under the new CEO, and the incredibly successful company could move in a new direction. The market has absorbed news that Tim Cook is stepping down well, Apple’s share price is up by 16% YTD, and performing at the same level as Nvidia. Overall, we do not expect too much of a reaction in Apple’s share price today. The next test for Apple will be the September 9th iPhone launch event, where the company is expected to unveil the new iPhone 18 range, as well as an iPhone Ultra, which will be foldable. The company is expected to increase prices at this event, which could boost profitability and margins, especially if the new product launch is successful. Thus, there is plenty of opportunity for Apple share price volatility later this month. Tesla outperforms the market Elsewhere, Tesla was the top performer on the S&P 500 on Monday, it was higher by 5%, however, it sold off slightly in overnight markets. The stock has been on a tear in recent weeks, and jumped 18% in August, outperforming the overall market. Investors are excited about its energy segment, and its cybercab launch that is set to take place this Thursday. The technical outlook for Tesla is also interesting, the stock price closed above the 50-day sma at $359 on Monday, and $378 is now in view for this stock, the high from July. G20 meeting and the FX impact The G20 meeting is also taking place in the US over the next two days, and this usual non-event could be more interesting this time around. The US Treasury Secretary said that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates to boost the yen. The BOJ meets just after the Federal Reserve this month, on 17th and 18th September, and the market is already expecting a hike, with a 80%+ probability already priced in. Bessent’s assertion that a rate hike was close helped the yen to rise by 0.2% vs. the USD, and USD/JPY backed away from the critical 160.00 level after these comments, although the yen is faltering on Monday and is within striking distance of 160. This suggests that Bessent’s comments alone won’t be enough to support the yen. Overall, September could be a tricky month for investors, and volatility could be on the rise. Chart 1: Tesla tests the 50-day sma Source: XTB

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September 1, 2026

Economic Calendar – U.S. JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing in focus. What will Eurozone CPI show?

Today, market attention will focus on euro area data, including unemployment figures and, above all, the preliminary CPI inflation reading for August. However, the main focus for FX and equity markets will be the U.S. JOLTS report on job openings and the August ISM Manufacturing Index, which is expected to ease slightly while remaining at a very high level above 55 points. Economic calendar 09:15 Spain – Manufacturing PMI: forecast 50.5 pts, previous 50.2 pts 09:30 Switzerland – Manufacturing PMI: forecast 54.0 pts, previous 53.2 pts 09:50 France – Final Manufacturing PMI: forecast 51.5 pts, previous 51.5 pts 09:55 Germany – Final Manufacturing PMI: forecast 54.1 pts, previous 54.1 pts 10:00 Eurozone – Final Manufacturing PMI: forecast 52.8 pts, previous 52.8 pts 10:00 Italy – Q2 GDP q/q: forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2% 10:00 Italy – Q2 GDP y/y: forecast 1.0% 10:30 UK – Final Manufacturing PMI: forecast 51.5 pts, previous 51.5 pts 10:30 UK – Mortgage Lending: forecast GBP 5.7bn, previous GBP 7.727bn 10:30 UK – Mortgage Approvals: forecast 59.35k, previous 58.2k 10:30 Eurozone – Consumer Credit: forecast EUR 1.7bn, previous EUR 1.807bn 10:30 Italy – Unemployment Rate: forecast 5.6%, previous 5.7% 11:00 Eurozone – Unemployment Rate: forecast 6.3%, previous 6.3% 11:00 Eurozone – CPI Inflation y/y, preliminary: forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9% 11:00 Eurozone – Core CPI Inflation y/y, preliminary: forecast 2.5%, previous 2.5% 11:00 Italy – HICP y/y, preliminary: forecast 3.4%, previous 2.9% 11:00 Italy – CPI y/y, preliminary: forecast 3.3%, previous 2.9% 11:00 Italy – CPI m/m, preliminary: forecast 0.4%, previous 0.3% 11:00 Italy – HICP m/m, preliminary: forecast 0.3%, previous -1.0% 15:45 US – Final S&P Manufacturing PMI: forecast 53.4 pts, previous 53.5 pts 16:00 US – JOLTS Job Openings: forecast 7.313mn, previous 7.359mn 16:00 US – ISM Manufacturing PMI: forecast 55.2 pts, previous 55.6 pts 16:00 US – ISM Prices Paid: forecast 70.8 pts, previous 71.1 pts 16:00 US – ISM Employment Index: forecast 52.5 pts, previous 52.8 pts 16:00 US – ISM New Orders Index: forecast 56.8 pts, previous 56.7 pts 16:00 US – Construction Spending m/m: forecast 0.0%, previous -0.1% Central bank speakers 10:30 – ECB Kocher 14:30 – ECB Nagel 15:05 – Fed Barr 17:30 – ECB Vujcic EURUSD chart (D1 interval)

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September 1, 2026

Oil Fuels Market Uncertainty. Wall Street and Gold Under Pressure

Rising geopolitical tensions have weighed on market sentiment. Equities, government bonds and precious metals are declining, while oil prices are moving higher, increasing concerns about renewed inflationary pressures and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 has erased its August gains, while U.S. index futures are down around 0.1%–0.2% today. Investors will focus today on preliminary August CPI data from the euro area and final PMI readings from European economies, but above all on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the JOLTS job openings report, both due at 16:00 Polish time. The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes again for the first time in around a month. U.S. forces hit targets on an island near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran responded with strikes on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. The escalation in the Middle East pushed U.S. crude oil prices above $90 per barrel yesterday, and prices remain above that level. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since January 2025. The renewed hostilities are weakening hopes for a stabilization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices have led money markets to price in a 57% probability of an interest-rate hike as early as this month. Despite a stronger U.S. dollar and higher yields, cryptocurrencies are outperforming equity indices and posting modest gains. Ethereum is holding near $2,450, while Bitcoin remains close to $78,000. So far, Bitcoin has maintained its roughly 25% rebound, with fresh demand helping to absorb waves of profit-taking. In Asia, attention turned to China, where the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August from 50.9 previously, above expectations of 51.0, pointing to a further improvement in manufacturing activity. South Korea’s trade surplus widened to $34.75 billion from $30.39 billion previously, with exports rising 68.7% y/y, above the 65% forecast, while imports increased 22.5% y/y, slightly below expectations. South Korea’s manufacturing PMI nevertheless fell to 52.3 from 53.1, while Japan’s manufacturing PMI edged down to 54.9 from 55.1. Australian data were weaker. Building approvals fell 3.6% m/m versus expectations for a 5.0% decline and a 7.2% increase previously, while private house approvals dropped 4.2% m/m. The current account balance came in at -AUD 27.2 billion versus -AUD 27.1 billion previously. Cryptocurrencies are outperforming equity indices and are posting modest gains. Ethereum is holding near $2,450, while Bitcoin remains close to $78,000. So far, Bitcoin has maintained its roughly 25% rebound, with fresh demand helping to absorb waves of profit-taking. Nvidia will invest $3.5 billion in MediaTek, deepening the companies’ cooperation and expanding the ecosystem of chipmakers supporting Nvidia’s dominant data-center infrastructure. Donald Trump said in a speech yesterday that he had ruled out the use of nuclear weapons in Iran, although the United States could continue striking selected targets. Trump’s approval rating remains at 33%, the lowest level of his political career, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Iranian media reported that a Saudi oil tanker had been stopped while passing through the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz. There has been no confirmation from Saudi Arabia. Apple has asked a U.S. federal court to expedite discovery in its case concerning the alleged misuse of trade secrets by OpenAI. According to Apple, new evidence emerged from a MacBook provided by OpenAI on August 21 as part of the legal proceedings. Apple alleges that one of the defendants trained an AI agent using proprietary Apple information and accessed a power-converter circuit schematic while at OpenAI. GOLD chart (D1 interval) Source: xStation5

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September 1, 2026

The Week Ahead

Key takeaways The key takeaways from Warsh’s speech Rising oil prices and rate hike expectations make September a tricky month for stocks Tesla shines August favours Asia and US over European stocks Seasonality could also weigh on market sentiment AI momentum remains strong ahead of key earnings Macro week ahead: Payrolls risk ahead of key FOMC meeting Earnings focus: can Broadcom keep the AI trade turning? High hopes for Broadcom The week ahead: Payrolls in focus as Fed rate hike As we start a new week, the market is digesting the fallout from Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Traders are also faced with a resumption of air strikes between the US and rising oil prices, and renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as September. The key takeaways from Warsh’s speech The key takeaways from Warsh’s speech last Friday include: his laser focus on inflation, which he considers to be too high, his complete rejection of forward guidance in any form, his assessment that US economic growth is solid and his high level of optimism for AI and its potential productivity gains, and his assessment that financial conditions are not overly restrictive. The last point is worth noting. Warsh clearly sees inflation as being too high, and economic growth in his view is solid. Due to this, the Fed has room to hold rates higher for longer or even raise rates as early as the September meeting. Rising oil prices and rate hike expectations make September a tricky month for stocks Rising oil prices, Brent crude is back above $90 per barrel on Monday as traders price in renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, combined with a 66% surge in expectations for a September rate hike, is taking the edge off risk sentiment as we end August. It also means that there is a tricky backdrop for stocks as we start a new month. US stocks are mildly lower on Monday, although there are large gains for Nvidia, Tesla and SpaceX. Tesla shines Tesla is up over 4% today, and is the second best performer on the S&P 500, the share price is at a 1-week high, and is above its 50-day sma. The pop in the share price is down to positive news about Optimus production, Musk’s humanoid robot, and because of a recent executive order by the President that bans imports of foreign manufactured power equipment, which should benefit domestic suppliers. This is good news for Tesla’s Energy Generation and Storage segment. Chart 1: Tesla, reaching the 50-day sma Source: XTB August favours Asia and US over European stocks Overall, apart from pockets of activity, it is generally a quiet end to the month. However, August has been good to stock market bulls, with strong gains for Asian stocks and US indices. European stocks did not fare as well. The FTSE 100 fell 0.4% this month, while the Eurostoxx 600 index is basically flat. Seasonality could also weigh on market sentiment The focus will be on the new month ahead, and what September could hold. September is seasonally the weakest month for the S&P 500, and it is the only calendar month that has a negative average return across long-term historical data. AI momentum remains strong ahead of key earnings Momentum in markets, especially tech and AI linked stocks, was strong into the end of August, driven by exquisite results for Nvidia and a strong rebound for software names, as they continue their recovery after a rough start to the year. Although it’s been a quiet start to the week, there is plenty of event risk ahead. This includes the latest Non Farm payrolls report for the US and Broadcom’s results. These events will test market sentiment as global indices approach record highs. Although the index is lower on Monday, the S&P 500 is less than 1% from the high reached in mid-August. Propping up the index has been an incredibly strong Q2 earnings season for the US; the S&P 500 is reporting its strongest quarterly earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. Payrolls risk ahead of key FOMC meeting However, earnings could be old news as we move through this week, and there are several events that could impact market sentiment. Firstly, the US labour market report that is scheduled for release this Friday. The market is expecting 45,000 jobs to have been created, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise a notch to 4.2% from 4.1%. July’s weaker than expected payrolls reading weighed on the dollar and triggered concern about the strength of the US economy, which led to a reduction in interest rate expectations. US Treasury yields also fell earlier in the month, although they reversed course on Friday after Warsh’s hawkish speech. For this trend to continue, we will need to see a continuation of this theme, ie, another weak reading for payrolls, or a bounce back, which could open the door to further hikes, especially after Fed chair Kevin Warsh continued to sound concerned about the inflation outlook in his Jackson Hole speech. This payrolls report comes at an auspicious time. Inflation data was hotter than expected in July, and, combined with a bounce back in US payrolls growth, this could trigger significant market volatility as the prospect of a near term rate hike comes back into focus. As we lead up to the September 16th Federal Reserve meeting, there is currently a 66% chance of a hike. However, now that the Fed is not giving explicit forward guidance under new chair Kevin Warsh, investors are scrutinizing economic data even more, and each Fed meeting is potentially a ‘live’ meeting. So we expect the volatility after this Friday’s payrolls reading to be even higher than normal. Elsewhere, it is worth watching the Eurozone’s CPI reading for August. This is the last inflation report before the ECB meeting on 10th September, where markets are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate hike, with a further hike expected by December. Due to this, the CPI data could meaningfully impact the euro and Eurozone bond yields and the euro. EUR/USD rose 0.7% this month, and is the second best performer in the G7 FX space. Higher than expected CPI could bring $1.20 back into focus. Chart 2: EUR/USD Source: XTB In the UK, flash PMI readings will be worth watching to get a sense of how the economy is performing as we move through Q3. Elsewhere, the central bank of New Zealand is expected to raise rates, the Reserve Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates on hold. Earnings focus: can Broadcom keep the AI trade turning? This Wednesday we get another earnings test for the AI trade. Broadcom will report results and the market wants to know if Broadcom will offer the same positive outlook for revenues as Nvidia did, after the latter forecast revenue growth of $108bn for the current quarter. High hopes for Broadcom Broadcom provides custom chips for Google, its longest standing partner, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and Apple. Along with Marvell, Broadcom has a 70% market share of the custom accelerator chip market, which is central to agentic AI. Considering its main customers are still boosting capex spending to reach their AI ambitions, expectations are high that Broadcom could beat revenue and earnings guidance. Analysts are expecting revenue to come in at $29.3bn for last quarter, and for earnings per share to come in at $3.22, which would make Broadcom more profitable on a per-share basis than Nvidia. Any hint of disappointment in this earnings report would be a major downside surprise, and could weigh on the AI trade and market sentiment especially towards the US and Asian indices in South Korea and Japan.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Can You Beat the Bond Market?

Partly outside the spotlight of retail investors and public opinion, one can observe changes in the bond market which, although not very impressive in nominal terms, have enormous implications. The buzz of speculation, theories, and fears was partly fueled by Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. Many investors and analysts expected the new Fed chair to, in a sense, support efforts to fight for low interest rates and an election victory being pursued by Donald Trump and Scott Bessent. But it turned out differently. Kevin Warsh struck a very hawkish tone, though in his usual style, avoiding specifics. Politics Is Theater Many people like to think that monetary policy is a unique bastion of technical expertise, verifiable data, and de facto technocracy that maintains decorum even when surrounded by the sensation and populism of the mainstream. But that conclusion is very superficial. Monetary policy is just as much theater, rhetoric, and spectacle as, for example, presidential debates or campaign rallies. The differences in messaging stem from the nature of the target audience, but the pattern of shifts remains the same. The actors on stage have now become Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent. So where does the idea come from that the intentions and declarations of probably the two most important people in the world of finance may be insincere? A collision course between fiscal and monetary policy inside the administration forces us to consider three possible variants of the situation: Kevin Warsh was appointed by D. Trump with full awareness that Trump would sabotage his policy and plans. Scott Bessent suddenly starts making mistakes he spent most of his career trading against. The Fed and the Treasury Department are coordinating actions as part of a broader strategy under a specific plan of the president’s administration. Everyone involved in the process understands that the current U.S. strategy of managing the yield curve has no chance of long-term success and is only a temporary measure. So why is the U.S. administration digging in its heels? High long-term bond yields are painful for the U.S. because they not only force borrowing at a fixed, high rate, but long-term bonds are also a benchmark for, for example, mortgage loans. Neither the Fed nor the Treasury can solve the root cause, namely the budget deficit and inflation, so they try to manage the curve through issuance. By limiting issuance of long-term paper, its supply falls, and thus its price rises, which mechanically lowers yields. However, borrowing needs remain, so the U.S. borrows at shorter maturities. For now, the success of this strategy is limited. The problem is not the disappointing effect of this financial engineering, but the potential risk. Rollover Shorter maturities mean more frequent debt rollovers, which carries a number of implications and risks. Long-term bonds have higher yields because they include a risk premium: more time to maturity means more risk. But if the U.S. government shifts more debt into the short term, the risk does not disappear. It is simply that with long-term bonds the government pays for the risk upfront, while with short-term bonds it pays for it at rollover. If inflation and the deficit grow faster than the economy, yields will also rise faster; and with more frequent rollovers, the results of fiscal policy will be reflected in the debt market more quickly, because they will be stripped of long-term inertia. After some time, the government may find itself in a situation even worse than the problem it wanted to solve. Unless this is only part of a larger and longer strategy. Informational Advantage In one of his recent statements, Scott Bessent noted that the Treasury has a “ disproportionate informational advantage .” These are words with huge, almost ominous implications. Why? A desperate attempt to manage yields through issuance makes long-term sense only if we expect long-term yields to fall to attractive levels (as quickly as possible), one way or another. One particularly interesting phenomenon in this context is the so-called yield curve inversion, the moment when short-term bonds pay more than long-term ones. Almost universally, this phenomenon accompanies financial crises or recessions. Does Scott Bessent see an approaching crisis that justifies his poker moves? Is it the bursting of the AI bubble? Or a military conflict that will shake the market again? Or could the cause be another of Scott Bessent’s initiatives? The Treasury Secretary is heavily involved in developing the “stablecoin” market, i.e., crypto tokens backed by safe assets, which in theory is meant to make them safe digital money. Setting aside the usefulness of such an instrument, it is important to Scott Bessent for another reason. Stablecoins have to buy short-term U.S. Treasuries to back their assets and maintain liquidity. That is why Scott Bessent is working so hard on their expansion: these instruments will implement his policy. And how could this lead to a crisis? Bessent himself points out that hundreds of billions of dollars of deposits could flow into stablecoins. But those billions are already somewhere today: they are in banks. Draining liquidity from the financial sector is almost a textbook recipe for a financial crisis. This is especially important in the context of Bessent’s frequent and vocal comments (and those of the rest of the U.S. administration) about the need for further deregulation of the banking sector. If Bessent managed to push large funds into stablecoins and then into bonds, he would obtain cheaper short-term debt and at the same time lay the foundations for a financial crisis that would force the Fed to cut rates deeply. That would allow a return to a normal issuance mix at prices significantly lower than what the market sees today. This is not a forecast or even a base-case scenario, but the hypothesis may prove to be a valuable reference point in the context of future comments and decisions by the Fed chair and the Treasury Secretary.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Arabica Coffee Posts Moderate Losses as Prices Consolidate

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down 1.35 (-0.43%) on Monday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) did not trade, as markets were closed in the UK for a holiday. Arabica coffee settled lower on Monday as prices consolidated above last Thursday’s 3-week low. Last Thursday, arabica coffee fell to a 3-week low, and robusta dropped to a 2-month low on the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to add more supply to the market.  Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as space fills up, suggesting farmers holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to increase coffee sales as storage space dwindles.  Last Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.75-month high and robusta posted a 3-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported last Wednesday that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 21, up 6 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 91.3% a year earlier.  Also, Safras & Mercado reported today that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% completed as of August 26, behind 100% last year and the 5-year average of 98%.  Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 96% complete, behind last year's 99%.  Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 223,976 bags last Friday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots last Tuesday. Coffee prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report on August 13 quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Above-normal rainfall in Brazil may benefit flowering for next year’s coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 8.9 mm of rain, or 127% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 30 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Cocoa Prices Rise on Concern Over West African Cocoa Quality

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +123 (+1.85%) on Monday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) did not trade, with markets in the UK closed for a holiday. NY cocoa extended its sharp three-session rally on Monday and posted an 11-month high.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices.  Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  Last Friday, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Also, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,411,016 bags on Monday. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Global Supply Fears Underpin Sugar Prices

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.25 (+1.42%) on Monday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) did not trade, with markets closed in the UK for a holiday. NY sugar settled sharply higher on Monday but remained below last Friday’s significant high as the outlook for a global sugar deficit underpins prices.  Sugar prices have rallied sharply over the past month, with NY sugar posting a 16.5-month high last Friday and London sugar posting a 17-month high last Thursday.  The European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said last Thursday that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT.  Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Thursday projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/25 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.  Sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. An excessively long position by funds in London sugar could exacerbate any long liquidation pressures. Last Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed funds boosted their long positions in London ICE white sugar by 2,830 net-long positions in the week ended Aug 25 to a record 70,766, the most since data began in 2011. India’s Meteorological Department reported today that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 14% below normal as of August 31, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  On July 31, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 20, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move is a further sign of the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on August 18 raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Wheat Futures Fall on Black Sea Export Hopes

Wheat futures fell to around $7.50 per bushel in early September, slipping away from a more than three-year high reached on August 28 as prospects for renewed grain shipments through the Black Sea eased supply concerns. Turkey said it is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine regarding the safe passage of grain exports and expressed its willingness to help revive the UN-backed agreement that previously facilitated Ukrainian grain shipments during the war. Wheat prices surged more than 16% in August as the Russia-Ukraine conflict severely disrupted grain flows through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, key export routes that historically handled roughly 70% of Russia's grain exports. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East have heightened concerns over potential energy supply disruptions from major oil-producing regions, driving crude oil prices higher and adding to broader uncertainty across commodity markets.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Palm Oil Extends Gains as Malaysian Markets Reopen

Malaysian palm oil futures jumped near 2% to near MYR 4,900 per tonne, extending the previous session’s rally and hitting a one-week high as traders returned from a holiday. Sentiment was lifted by firmer edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges, along with a weaker ringgit. Stronger crude oil prices also provided support amid renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, growing El Niño risks added to concerns over drier conditions and potential production losses across Southeast Asia. However, gains were tempered by weak export demand and ample supplies. Cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil exports fell between 11.4% and 20% during August 1-25 from the same period in July, while inventories climbed to a five-month high in July, reinforcing concerns over supply pressure. Demand from India could also face headwinds as refiners favour cheaper soyoil, although expectations for strong August vegetable oil imports may provide some underlying support.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Soybeans Hit Nearly 3-Year High

Soybean futures climbed above $12.8 per bushel, hitting their highest level in almost three years as the Trump administration’s latest biofuel policy boosted expectations for soybean demand. The EPA granted 1.76 billion renewable fuel credits in small-refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year, nearly double its earlier estimate. However, the agency plans to shift the difference between projected and actual exemptions into the 2026 and 2027 mandates, effectively preserving the lost biofuel demand in future years. The move eased concerns that expanded refinery waivers would trigger a significant decline in crop demand. Soybeans are a key biodiesel feedstock, making biofuel mandates crucial for demand. Meanwhile, Chinese buying has remained supportive, with US exporters reporting multiple sales to China for 2026/27 delivery, including 333,000 metric tons on August 26, following purchases of 488,000 tons on August 3, 238,000 tons on August 7 and 244,000 tons on August 12.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Copper Rises on Tighter Supply

Copper futures rose above $6.6 per pound on Tuesday, extending gains for a second consecutive session amid ongoing supply-side constraints. Data showed that copper output in top producer Chile fell 9.4% in July from a year earlier, highlighting tightening conditions in global markets. Mining disruptions in Chile, as well as in major producers Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have further fueled concerns over supply. Meanwhile, a recent supply squeeze in London showed signs of easing, with the premium for spot copper over three-month futures narrowing. The London Metal Exchange also reported improving inventories as metal deliveries increased. However, traders continued redirecting copper shipments toward the US ahead of potential new import tariffs, with the White House yet to make a decision on the issue.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Palladium Extends Losses

Palladium futures fell to around $1,350 per ounce, extending losses for a second session after hitting three-month highs, as a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields weighed on the metal following hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Palladium also faced pressure from increased expectations of a September rate hike, with markets awaiting key US labour market data, including the ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls, for further clues on the Fed’s policy path. Meanwhile, higher oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz lifted inflation expectations, adding to pressure on palladium. The metal fell more than 4.3% on Monday after Warsh signalled that policymakers may need to do more if inflation fails to move back toward the Fed’s 2% target. On the supply front, constrained mine output in major producing regions continued to provide some support, though supply concerns were outweighed by broader macroeconomic pressures.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Zinc Climbs to Over 4-Year High

Zinc prices rose above $3,950 a ton, hitting their highest level since April 2022, amid tightening supply conditions. The metal posted a fifth consecutive monthly gain in August and is up 27% so far this year, outperforming other major base metals. Supply concerns have been fueled by disruptions at several mines, including in China, while Middle East tensions have constrained Iranian ore shipments. The squeeze is also reflected in sharply lower smelter treatment charges, signaling a shortage of zinc concentrate available for processing. At the same time, stockpiles at LME warehouses remain relatively low by historical standards, while physical availability outside China is particularly tight. Meanwhile, Chinese inventories have risen significantly, creating a notable divergence between the world’s largest zinc consumer and other major markets.

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Energies

September 1, 2026

WTI holds above $85.50 as Middle East risks tighten global supply

WTI advances due to resumed US-Iran strikes and threats to Kharg Island, sparking intense energy supply concerns. A supertanker mine strike highlights severe operational risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries further tighten fuel supplies, pushing margins to record highs. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price gains ground for the second successive day, trading around $85.60 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices are climbing following a fresh wave of hostilities in the Middle East that has renewed fears over potential disruptions to regional energy flows. The escalation broke a month-long lull as US forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, prompting Tehran to strike targets in the UAE and Jordan. Escalating the rhetoric, President Donald Trump warned of potential military action against Kharg Island, which serves as Iran's primary oil export hub. Maritime risks in the region were highlighted when a supertanker caught fire after striking two naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these severe hazards, crude shipments through the critical choke point have not ground to a complete halt, with major Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, continuing to ship partial volumes. Compounding the pressure on global energy markets, drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries have squeezed overall refining capacity. This reduction in fuel processing capabilities, combined with Middle Eastern supply anxieties, has driven refined-product margins to new record highs. US–Venezuela oil deal claims add to energy market uncertainty BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that President Trump has injected a fresh source of uncertainty into energy markets by announcing that the US has struck a deal with Venezuela “to secure majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves.” Chong notes that Trump has framed the agreement as coming at “no cost” to US taxpayers and has claimed it would “strengthen bilateral ties while helping to lower gasoline prices.” However, Chong points out that the lack of detail on the legal terms and implementation, set against already elevated energy costs and tighter global crude flows, leaves investors cautious about how and when any purported benefits might feed through to the market.

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Forex Trading

September 1, 2026

Japan’s Katayama: Confirmed with Bessent that continued, coordinated action on FX is needed

Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said Tuesday that he confirmed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that continued, coordinated action on FX is needed. Additional quotes Shared understanding with Bessent on the significance of joint FX intervention.Can't comment on FX rates when asked if current Yen rates are in order.Hard to say how specific factors could affect FX moves, when asked whether recent yen moves were orderly or not.Confirmed with Bessent that our joint efforts with the US continue to benefit global financial market stability.Can't comment on current JGB yield levels.No change; when asked if there is any change to stance, said that Tokyo is ready to take decisive action against disorderly FX movements.True that speculative forex moves not reflecting fundamentals have been on the rise.FX moves ought to be reflecting fundamentals, but many times they do not. Market reaction These comments have little to no impact on the Japanese Yen (JPY), as USD/JPY remains in its range around 159.80, as of writing.

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Markets

September 1, 2026

Gold Pressured by Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold traded below $4,450 an ounce on Tuesday, hovering near two-week lows as rising oil prices and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh strengthened expectations for a US rate hike this month. Oil prices advanced for a second straight session after US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran responded with attacks on the UAE and Jordan. Higher energy costs stoked inflation concerns, strengthening the case for a near-term Fed rate increase, which is typically negative for bullion. Meanwhile, Chair Warsh said the Fed would “have work to do” without clearer evidence that inflation is moving back toward its 2% target. Markets are now pricing in a more than 65% chance of a September hike, up from around 36% before his remarks. Despite the recent decline, gold still gained about 10% in August after the US Treasury announced plans to double liquidity-support buybacks of longer-dated bonds, reviving the so-called debasement trade.

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Energies

September 1, 2026

Heating Oil Nears 5-Month High

US heating oil prices rose to around $4.45 per gallon, nearing a five-month high and leaving prices about 80% higher than a year earlier, as US distillate inventories remain well below seasonal norms. Distillate stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels to 103.4 million barrels in the week ending August 21, their lowest August level in comparable records and about 14% below the five-year average. The drawdown comes as demand is set to strengthen in the coming months, with winter heating needs and seasonal farming activity in both hemispheres likely to lift consumption. At the same time, Middle East conflict has disrupted refined-fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia’s diesel export restrictions and attacks on its refining infrastructure are further tightening global supplies. Strong demand is encouraging US refiners to raise output and exports, but additional shipments remain insufficient to offset supply disruptions elsewhere, keeping the refined-fuel market tight.

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Energies

September 1, 2026

European Gas Extends Gains

European natural gas prices extended rally, climbing above €70/MWh on Tuesday, the highest level since January 2023, as the flare-up in US-Iran tensions heightened concerns over Europe’s gas supply security heading into the heating season. The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in a month over the weekend, threatening to prolong the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade normally passes. The prospect of sustained disruption has intensified competition with Asian buyers, tightening supplies bound for Europe during the critical gas-storage refill season. EU gas storage facilities were around 64% full, below historical levels for this time of year. Low storage levels and uncertainty over LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf are putting upward pressure on prices, offsetting milder weather forecasts for early September that could limit near-term demand.

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Energies

August 31, 2026

Chart of the Day: Middle East escalation boosts oil prices

Crude oil has once again become a hostage of geopolitics. Attacks in the Persian Gulf region and increasing restrictions on transit in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed demand fundamentals into the background. Although backwardation at the short end of the oil market curve is not as strong as it was 5 months ago, this same short end is currently trading significantly higher. The geopolitical premium in the oil market is priced at at least a dozen dollars per barrel and it does not seem likely to dissipate anytime soon. Leaving aside the strong price changes in cocoa from Friday, oil and gas are the strongest commodities today. Source: XTB A decomposition of the factors affecting the price of crude oil clearly indicates that geopolitical risk became the main driver of price increases in August. While the impact of demand remains slightly negative, according to the Bloomberg Economics price impact model, and other supply factors have stabilized, mounting military tensions in the Middle East region have led to a risk premium reaching a dozen dollars per barrel. Key factors affecting crude oil prices Physical availability of oil restricted in the Strait of Hormuz: The direct exchange of missile strikes between US and Iranian forces around Larak Island and the retaliatory attack on bases in Jordan led to a jump in Brent oil prices above 91 USD/bbl, and WTI to around 86 USD/bbl. Before the war, 20 million barrels per day flowed through Hormuz. In the meantime, levels as low as 6-8 million barrels per day were reached, while currently this number may be even twice as low. Extreme backwardation on the forward curve: The term structure of Brent oil contracts is characterized by a steep drop in prices in subsequent months and years (deep backwardation). Contracts for the coming months are priced significantly higher than series for delivery in 2027–2028 (where the valuation drops to 70–80 USD/bbl). This reflects market concerns about an immediate, physical shortage of the raw material "right now," with no concerns about long-term resource depletion. Refining bottlenecks and jump in fuel prices: Rising raw material prices combined with attacks on refining infrastructure in Russia and the Middle East led to a strong increase in distillate margins. Retail diesel prices in the US have risen as much as 60% this year, while in September diesel rates in the United Arab Emirates jumped by over 13% m/m. Political pressure before the US elections: The rise in market fuel prices directly impacts the political situation in the United States ahead of the November Congressional elections. The correlation between the rising average gasoline price in the US (exceeding 4 USD/gallon) and the decline in the Republican Party's chances of maintaining control of the House of Representatives (falling to approx. 11% on prediction markets) shows that the political cost of the conflict for the White House is becoming critical. Protective and diplomatic actions: In response to the crisis, Washington announces weekly tightening of financial sanctions on institutions handling trade with Iran. Parallel steps are being taken to secure long-term supply resources – including plans to take control over reserves in Venezuela (100-year concessions) for the purpose of rebuilding US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). The forward curve remains in strong backwardation. Although the calendar spreads on the short end are not as large as they were 5 months ago, the entire curve is clearly higher. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP The chances of Republican Party dominance in the House of Representatives have fallen to 11%. On the other hand, there is a much clearer correlation between the probability of continued dominance in the Senate and gasoline prices in the US. If the Republicans hold the Senate, the current situation in the US will not change. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB WTI oil prices above 100-SMA Crude oil prices opened with a clear upward gap and currently the price is testing the vicinity of the 100-period average and 23.6 Fibo retracement from recent July upward wave. Closing above the 87 USD per barrel would open a path even to 90 USD per barrel. On the other hand, with a possible deescalation in the Middle East with a halt of the fire exchange could bring down the price below 85 USD per barrel.

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BNY

August 31, 2026

Euro: Inflation test for ECB hike odds – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that upcoming German CPI and Eurozone flash CPI are critical for European Central Bank expectations, with markets already pricing a near-certain September hike. While services inflation is softening and second-round wage effects remain unclear, stronger headline readings could reinforce hawkish ECB messaging and challenge Europe’s fragile cyclical recovery and activity improvements. Inflation data to steer ECB path "We fully acknowledge that the odds are stacked against the doves as the week ahead sees key inflation releases in Germany and the broader Eurozone. Upside surprises in France and Spain have provided validation for the hawks, and OIS markets now suggest a 97% chance of a hike in the September meeting." "We still see risk reward in fading the “certainty,” especially at current levels, but the ECB is likely intent on pushing for additional preemptive action." "Headline inflation globally has its own supply challenges, but we believe the ECB is also making a judgment on the reaction function to wages, which still seems excessive. Even some of the more hawkish members have highlighted that there’s no clear evidence of second-round effects, as President Christine Lagarde acknowledged at the July meeting." "We also stress that services inflation, which is a better gauge of wage pressures and domestic demand, continues to decline across Europe." "The ECB’s pre-decision quiet period begins in the coming days, leaving the inflation and PMI figures the core releases for central bank signaling. German CPI aside, Eurozone flash CPI is out on Tuesday, where a rise in headline inflation would reinforce pressure on ECB rate expectations – validating Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel’s extremely hawkish messaging." "Final PMIs across the Eurozone and U.K. will show whether recent improvements in activity are holding, but the embedded price indices will provide further examples of pass-through risk."

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Banks

August 31, 2026

Gold: Fed hawkishness caps upside – ING

ING’s commodities team, led by Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, reports that Gold came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced a higher-for-longer rates narrative, supporting the Dollar. They add that upcoming US inflation and labour data, central bank buying and geopolitics will shape Gold’s near-term performance, with upside seen as constrained by rate expectations. Dollar strength weighs on bullion "Gold came under pressure on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signalled that policymakers remain focused on returning inflation to the 2% target. This dampens expectations for an imminent easing in monetary policy. The comments supported the US dollar and weighed on gold prices." "Warsh stressed that inflation progress remains insufficient and reiterated that interest rates remain the Fed's primary tool for achieving its objectives. Markets interpreted the remarks as reinforcing a higher-for-longer rates outlook, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold." "Gold is likely to remain sensitive to incoming US inflation and labour market data. While central bank buying and geopolitical risks should continue to provide underlying support, a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rate expectations could limit near-term upside momentum."

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Banks

August 31, 2026

US Dollar: Warsh speech supports greenback – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that the US Dollar (USD) recovered after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, as futures pricing restored a meaningful probability of a September FOMC rate hike. Wee stresses that Warsh reaffirmed his inflation-first stance and avoided detailed forward guidance, leaving structural long-bond and de-dollarisation risks for the USD still unresolved over the longer term. Fed signals lift Dollar near term "The USD regained its composure after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday. The futures market reinstated the possibility of a Fed hike (58% odds) at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Markets latched onto Warsh’s conditional comment that the Fed still has “work to do” if underlying inflation does not move towards 2% “clearly and with sufficient speed.”" "His articulation of broad policy principles should not be confused with the European Central Bank’s more structured framework guidance. Warsh has restored a policy compass, not the decision-making map that markets have been seeking. He remains opposed to forward guidance and again declined to specify a reaction function." "Warsh steered clear of the controversy surrounding the overlap between monetary and Treasury debt management. The tension was visible after Jackson Hole. As markets raised the probability of a September Fed hike, yields rose across the Treasury curve." "The put refers to Bessent’s August 18 announcement that the Treasury would at least double the maximum size of its long-end buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, effective September 9. The timing creates an awkward gap." "For now, the USD benefits from hawkish Fed signals and the cushioning effect of the “Bessent Put." The greenback’s longer-term structural risks remain intact." "Payrolls arrive on September 4, followed by the US Labor Day holiday on September 7, leaving September 8 as a window to test the Treasury before the facility takes effect. Bessent is not necessarily powerless. He could again emphasize the Treasury General Account (TGA), estimated at some $1 trillion." "The move was not confined to the policy-sensitive 2Y yield; the 10Y and 30Y yields rose as well. A stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls (+55k consensus vs. -23k previous) this Friday (September 4) could push the 30Y yield back above its August high of 5.34% and test the “Bessent Put.”"

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Markets

August 31, 2026

Steel Hits 2-½-Month Highs

Steel rebar futures jumped above CNY 3,140 per ton, reaching their highest levels since mid-June as investors anticipated a recovery in demand due to seasonal factors ahead of the September peak construction season. Construction activity in top consumer China typically picks up ahead of winter, strengthening the outlook for demand for steel and raw materials. China’s National Development and Reform Commission also reportedly held meetings in recent weeks urging local governments to accelerate the construction of major projects. Meanwhile, China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, held steady at 49.0, matching July’s reading and remaining at its weakest level since December 2022. Sweeping regulatory changes for China’s crisis-hit property sector announced last week also drove shares in smaller developers sharply lower, amid expectations of further consolidation across the industry.

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Markets

August 31, 2026

Iron Ore Hits 1-Month High

Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 720 per ton, reaching a one-month high as investors anticipated a recovery in demand due to seasonal factors ahead of the September peak construction season. Construction activity in top consumer China typically picks up ahead of winter, strengthening the outlook for demand for steel and raw materials. China’s National Development and Reform Commission also reportedly held meetings in recent weeks urging local governments to accelerate the construction of major projects. Meanwhile, higher freight and oil costs provided additional support for iron ore prices, although rising coking coal prices continued to squeeze steel mill margins. Industry data also showed that the blast furnace operating rate among Chinese steel mills edged lower last week, while daily hot metal output also declined.

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Geopolitics

August 31, 2026

USA and Iran exchange blows, oil prices rise, and markets fear a hawkish Fed

🌐 Geopolitics Direct military escalation between the US and Iran shook financial markets over the past weekend. US forces conducted a strike on targets located on the Iranian island of Larak, justifying it by the detection of preparations to deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran carried out a massive missile barrage, directly targeting US military bases in Jordan. Additionally, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that a supertanker allegedly moving illegally on a southward course burst into flames after striking two sea mines, raising serious concerns about a total paralysis of shipping in this key region. Scott Bessent announced regular, weekly imposition of new secondary sanctions on entities linked to Iran. The next step for the US administration could be the complete cutting off of key Iranian institutions from the global dollar settlement system. The atmosphere was heated up by Donald Trump, who published an AI-generated video suggesting the destruction of a key Iranian oil terminal on Kharg Island. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of North Korea issued an official statement emphasizing that its nuclear status remains inviolable and will be constantly strengthened. 📊 Macroeconomics A hawkish speech by Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Warsh during the Jackson Hole symposium triggered deep reshuffling in market expectations regarding US interest rates. Analysts at Barclays bank revised their previous forecasts and now expect two more rate hikes of 25 basis points – respectively in September and December. Meanwhile, according to BofA, pressure is growing for a hawkish Fed move as early as the upcoming September FOMC meeting, which has caused strong pressure on the debt market. However, the market is pricing in less than a 50% chance of such a move. France is becoming a major source of concern in the European debt market due to deepening political paralysis and a growing budget deficit. The country's debt servicing costs are rising sharply, approaching the highs last recorded during the 2008 crisis. Macroeconomic data from the Asia-Pacific region indicates an ambiguous pace of economic recovery. China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 points, exceeding market forecasts, but still remaining below the threshold separating growth from contraction. The Japanese bond market saw a sharp rise in yields, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since September 1996, and 5-year notes recording a record yield near 2.21%. This results directly from investors' growing expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. 🛢️ Commodities Oil prices rose sharply at the beginning of the week following reports of direct military clashes and a supertanker fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The market fears a physical blockage of oil supply routes from the Middle East, which, combined with the threat of new sanctions on Iran, is creating strong demand pressure. Additionally, coking coal prices in China are heading for record monthly increases due to shrinking supplies for the steel industry. Gold prices continue to fall, dropping below the psychological barrier of 4400 dollars per ounce for the first time in over a week. The precious metal remains under pressure from a stronger US dollar and high Treasury yields, which is a direct reaction to the hawkish tone from Jackson Hole. In the soft commodities market, cocoa in Europe and the US continues dynamic gains caused by a supply deficit, while sugar is recording a strong downward correction. As of 07:32, gold is losing 0.49%, while WTI crude is gaining 2.86% 💱 Currencies The Japanese yen managed to strengthen during the Asian session, despite the earlier rise of USDJPY above the 160 level. Investors are anxiously awaiting a possible currency intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, while Scott Bessent calms the market by stating that the yen's volatility is within acceptable limits. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that despite the turmoil, selected carry trade strategies based on the relative strength of the yen should continue to yield profits. The Australian dollar managed to stay above the 0.7150 level thanks to a temporary halt in the appreciation of the US dollar, however, fears of further rate hikes by the Fed and the escalation of geopolitical tensions are limiting the currency's growth potential. The Swiss franc, on the other hand, shows stabilization with a tendency towards slight strengthening, reflecting its status as a safe haven during periods of heightened military risk in the world. As of 07:32, the USDJPY pair is losing 0.19%, while the dollar index is losing 0.07% 📈 Stocks and Indices Futures on US stock indices are recording slight declines in reaction to the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, yet Wall Street is heading towards closing its fifth consecutive growth month. Indices in Asia, including the Japanese Nikkei 225, are subject to a heavy sell-off due to rising bond yields and war tensions. Chinese airline stocks are losing heavily due to concerns about operational profitability amid skyrocketing oil prices. As of 07:32, the S&P 500 index is losing 0.23%, the Nasdaq 100 is falling by 0.16%, and the Dow Jones is losing 0.24% 🪙 Cryptocurrencies The digital assets market is recording a noticeable downward correction, which is a direct consequence of investors fleeing risk towards safe havens following reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin and Ethereum are subject to declines, breaking local support levels and reacting to the general deterioration of sentiment in global markets. The largest losses are recorded by smaller altcoins, including tokens related to the US political scene and selected utility projects. 💡 Suggested for observation WTI Crude (OIL.WTI) — Rising dynamically after military strikes in the Strait of Hormuz; the threat of a blockade of transport routes and potential destruction of oil infrastructure in Iran could trigger a strong short-squeeze. Japanese Yen (USDJPY) — The pair tested a key psychological barrier at the 160.00 level, which drastically raises the risk of direct currency intervention by the Bank of Japan and may shake global carry trade positions. Gold (GOLD) — The precious metal is becoming cheaper due to rising yields in the US, however, the escalation of the armed conflict in the Middle East could at any moment provoke a sharp return of capital to this safe asset. Zcash (ZCASH) — Despite the ongoing correction, this cryptocurrency exhibits a very high, rare statistical deviation from its long-term average, making it an interesting object for quantitative analysis.

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Banks

August 31, 2026

Japanese Yen: Market needs more than BoJ pricing – OCBC

OCBC FX Strategist Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has already benefited from aggressive market pricing for Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening, with an 85% chance of a September hike implied. They argue further JPY gains may require additional policy tools beyond rate increases, such as measures to encourage repatriation of overseas assets, as BoJ faces constraints on how far and fast it can raise rates. BoJ tightening expectations already rich "A September move would break from the BoJ's pattern in the current tightening cycle, where rate increases have typically come about every six months. The last hike was delivered in June. Even so, it will be difficult for the BoJ to out-hawk market expectations." "Japan's rates market is already pricing an roughly 85% chance of a September hike, alongside a faster pace of tightening thereafter. Current pricing implies the policy rate rising from 1.00% to 1.75% by July 2027." "Given the constraints on how quickly and how far the BoJ can raise rates, additional measures may still be needed to counter more persistent JPY depreciation pressures. One option could be policies aimed at encouraging the repatriation of overseas assets." "Looking ahead, attention will turn to the September BoJ meeting, a potential Ueda-Takaichi meeting, and this week's G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors gathering for further policy signals." "Future JPY gains may require policy support that goes beyond the pace and extent of rate increases."

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Banks

August 31, 2026

Brent: Hormuz tensions keep prices supported above $90 – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that oil prices, including ICE Brent, started the week stronger after US strikes on Iran raised concerns over Persian Gulf supply. They highlight Strait of Hormuz flows and Russia’s extended diesel export ban as key factors supporting the oil complex. Brent underpinned by Gulf tensions "Oil prices started the week stronger following the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month. ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading. The US struck Iranian launchers over the weekend amid suggestions that Iran was about to launch mines into the Strait of Hormuz." "Obviously, the key is whether this ignites further rounds of strikes from both sides, and whether it leaves shippers hesitant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz." "Oil producers in the region have grown more comfortable shuttling crude through the key chokepoint in recent weeks. Reports have 6-8m b/d transiting the strait, although we assume an average of 5m b/d. Further escalation could put these flows under renewed pressure." "Unsurprisingly, Russia announced over the weekend that it would extend its ban on diesel exports by another month until the end of September 2026. This move will only add to the supply stress facing the global diesel market amid disruptions from the Persian Gulf and Russia. The market is moving toward stronger demand."

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Banks

August 31, 2026

British Pound: Downside risks with 1.3480 in sight against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD fell sharply to 1.3527 and closed at 1.3540, contradicting expectations for range trading. Intraday, they see limited further losses within 1.3520–1.3570 due to oversold conditions. Over the coming weeks, risk stays skewed lower toward 1.3480 while the pair remains capped below 1.3600. Pound under pressure near supports "24-HOUR VIEW: Last Thursday, GBP fell to a low of 1.3571 before recovering to close little changed at 1.3594 (-0.03%). When GBP was at 1.3595 on Friday, we highlighted that “oversold conditions, combined with slowing momentum, suggest that instead of continuing to decline today, GBP is more likely to trade in a range of 1.3570/1.3620.” We were incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, GBP fell sharply to a low of 1.3527 before settling 0.40% lower at 1.3540. Conditions remain deeply oversold, and further sustained decline appears unlikely. Today, GBP may edge lower, but any decline should remain within a range of 1.3520/1.3570." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned slightly negative on GBP last Friday (28 Aug, spot at 1.3595), indicating that “there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, and GBP could edge lower.” However, we highlighted that “based on the prevailing momentum, any decline could be contained within a 1.3550/1.3645 range.” We did not anticipate downward momentum to increase so quickly, as GBP plunged to a low of 1.3527. The risk remains on the downside, and the level to watch is 1.3480. Overall, GBP is likely to remain under pressure as long as it holds below 1.3600 (‘strong resistance’ level). "

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Banks

August 31, 2026

Euro: Warsh speech weighs on EUR against US Dollar – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed EUR/USD lower, with markets now pricing September as nearly a coin-flip for a rate hike. The team highlights that the Dollar strengthened versus both the Euro and Japanese Yen, while EUR/USD is broadly unchanged in early Asian trading despite the repricing in US rates. Hawkish Fed rhetoric pressures Euro "In the US, Fed Chairman Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone in his speech at Jackson Hole, reaffirming that the 2% PCE target is "firm" and "fixed" and signalling that more work remains if inflation does not move towards target with sufficient speed." "This represents a step away from his July press conference tone, where Warsh had emphasised markets' role in determining the direction of rates. The remarks sent EUR/USD lower. Overall, Warsh's message was consistent with a central banker open to hiking at the next meeting, with September now priced as nearly a coin-flip." "Also on the wires, Fed's Hammack, who voted for a rate hike at the last meeting, struck a hawkish tone, calling for immediate action on rate hikes and warning that waiting risks creating further pain. She expects inflation to end the year around 3%, well above the 2% target, and does not view current financial conditions as restrictive." "Focus turns to the German flash inflation figures for August, ahead of the euro area release tomorrow. Headline HICP inflation is expected to increase to 3.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%), driven by energy prices. Attention will centre on momentum in underlying inflation, which remained unaffected by the energy shock in the figures from Spain and France last week." "This week we have another crucial event for the US market with the labour market report for August, which is released on Friday. On top of this we have inflation data from the eurozone."

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Markets

August 31, 2026

Gold pares intraday losses to sub-$4,400 levels on softer USD; not out of the woods yet

Gold attracts some follow-through selling on Monday amid rising September Fed rate hike bets. US-Iran tensions lift crude oil prices and fuel inflation fears, bolstering hawkish Fed expectations. The USD struggles to lure buyers, holding back XAU/USD bears from positioning for deeper losses. Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from sub-$4,400 levels – a one-and-a-half-week low – touched during the Asian session on Monday, though the upside potential seems limited. A softer US Dollar (USD) offers some support to the precious metal and helps trim a part of its intraday losses. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on curbing inflationary pressures on Friday lifted bets for an interest rate hike, which might keep a lid on any meaningful recovery for the non-yielding bullion. Speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Warsh acknowledged that inflation is running hot and also hinted that interest rates could need to move higher if more progress isn’t made on easing price pressures. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around a 60% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 88% probability of a December increase, which lifted the USD to a two-week high on Friday and led to an over 3% fall in the Gold price. The selling bias remains unabated at the start of a new week as escalating US-Iran tensions lift crude oil prices and fuel inflation fears, bolstering hawkish Fed expectations. US forces struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first American strikes on the Islamic Republic since late July, prompting Iran to retaliate by launching ballistic missiles at two US bases in Jordan. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that new secondary sanctions were likely to be unveiled weekly in the effort to pressure Iran. Despite the supportive fundamental backdrop, the safe-haven USD struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid soft US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing fresh bearish bets on the Gold price and helps limit the downside. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of USD bulls, suggesting that any recovery in the XAU/USD pair is likely to be sold into. Traders now look to key US macro releases, scheduled for the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis Friday's break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, for the first time since early August, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the commodity is now trading below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from late July lows, validating the near-term negative outlook. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deeply negative, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory near 25, hinting at persistent downside pressure even if a short-lived corrective bounce cannot be ruled out. Hence, a subsequent fall towards the next relevant support at the 50.0% retracement near $4,346.16, ahead of the 61.8% level at $4,263.27, looks like a distinct possibility. A break below the latter would expose deeper structural floors at $4,145.27 and $3,994.96. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,429.04, followed by the 100-period SMA around $4,475.07 and the 23.6% Fibo. level near $4,531.59, while the cycle high at $4,697.36 marks a more distant barrier for any sustained recovery.

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Energies

August 31, 2026

Iran’s IRGC says will respond decisively to any further hostile military aggression

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Monday that its aerospace forces carried out retaliatory drone and ballistic missile strikes against US targets at two air bases in Jordan earlier in the day, Reuters reported. IRGC said in a statement that the strikes were in response to the "U.S. and Israeli air aggression" against Iran's southern Larak Island in Hormozgan province on Sunday night.” Iranian military emphasized that it will respond decisively to any further hostile military aggression, adding that the IRGC is also out saying that "all ships must comply with its rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz." Meanwhile, Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said on Monday that his country "does not seek war" but will respond to "aggressions," following the crossfire reported between Washington and Tehran on Sunday. Market reaction At the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 2.22% on the day at $84.60.

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Energies

August 31, 2026

WTI rises to near $84.50 as IRGC claims supertanker struck by mines in Hormuz

WTI jumps after Iran claims a supertanker hit naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched missile barrages toward the Strait to avenge a recent US strike on Larak Island. The US struck Iranian mine-laying positions, breaking a month-long pause in direct military action. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rebounds and continues its intraday gains, trading around $84.40 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices spike following claims by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that a rogue supertanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting two naval mines along the waterway's southern passage. IRGC officials stated the vessel was attempting to pass through the strait illegally, adding a stern warning that all maritime traffic must strictly comply with Iranian rules for passage through the area. In a sharp escalation, Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles from multiple locations across the country, including Tehran, Lorestan, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Shiraz. Targeted toward positions in the Strait of Hormuz, the missile strikes were launched in direct response to an earlier United States strike on Iranian launcher facilities at Larak Island, which the IRGC vowed to avenge. The preceding US military action targeted Iranian rocket sites prepared to lay naval mines in the strategic waterway, marking the first direct strike on Iranian military positions in over a month. While US forces maintained close monitoring of the Strait to safeguard global trade routes, the strike represented a sudden shift from Washington's recent baseline strategy, which had largely relied on economic sanctions over direct force to push Tehran back to negotiations. Brent gains seen capped as Persian Gulf exports recover Brown Brothers Harriman cautions that, despite recent strength in Brent, “upside pressure on crude oil prices appears limited.” The firm points to Goldman Sachs estimates that “oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels as more vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz,” suggesting that improving regional supply dynamics are likely to temper further gains. Technical Analysis: In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $84.40, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as price holds above both the short-term nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the medium-term 50-period EMA. The alignment of price above these averages suggests a supportive trend structure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.13 stays in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting at steady upward momentum rather than overbought conditions. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-period EMA around $83.19 and the 50-period EMA near $81.82. As long as WTI holds above these clustered supports, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective pauses within the broader advance, leaving the path open for buyers to press the uptrend toward higher levels once fresh resistance is defined by future price action.

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Banks

August 31, 2026

United States: Labour market watch – NBC Economics and Strategy

NBC Economics and Strategy report that U.S. nominal personal income rose 0.4% in July, double expectations, while spending increased 0.2% and real disposable income climbed 0.4% with flat real spending. They expect August nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 80K, keeping unemployment at 4.1% as participation edges up, and note PCE inflation holding at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. Income, jobs and PCE inflation "After advancing 0.2% in June, nominal personal income rose 0.4% in the United States in July, surpassing the median economist forecast calling for a +0.2% print. Nominal personal spending, for its part, grew 0.2% in the month, led by a 0.6% gain in the services sector. After adjusting for inflation, disposable income rose 0.4%, while spending was flat." "Still in the U.S., the headline PCE deflator in July printed at 3.7% on a 12-month basis, unchanged from the prior month and one tick above consensus expectations (3.6%). The 12-month core measures also stayed unchanged, at a consensus-matching 3.3%. On a monthly basis, both the headline and the ex-food and energy indices moved up 0.2%." "In the U.S., the release of the August nonfarm payroll figures is expected to attract considerable attention. Based on the decent weekly data released by ADP and previously published “soft” employment indicators, such as S&P Global's flash composite PMI, job creation likely rebounded in the month. Layoffs, for their part, may have remained very limited, judging by the extremely low number of initial jobless claims." "These two factors combined should, in our view, result in an increase of 80K in nonfarm payrolls. The household survey could also show a healthy gain which should, however, leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% if, as we anticipate, the labour force participation rate rose by one-tenth to 61.5%."

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Energies

August 31, 2026

US Natgas Prices Drop Further

US natural gas prices fell to $2.87/MMBtu on Monday, extending their retreat from a five-week high as traders weighed the prospect of increased supply. Energy Transfer LP’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline in Texas is set to begin service on September 1 and will eventually be able to transport about 2.2 Bcf/d of natural gas from the Permian Basin to East Texas, which may increase domestic gas supplies in Erath, Louisiana. On top of that, output in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 111.4 bcfd so far in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July. However, losses were capped by forecasts for warmer weather, with the Commodity Weather Group saying on Friday that above-average temperatures are expected across the eastern two-thirds of the US from September 2-11, keeping cooling demand elevated. Meanwhile, data showed gas demand from LNG export plants improved, as Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi facility and Freeport LNG in Texas resumed operations after maintenance.

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Markets

August 31, 2026

Copper Edges Lower as Dollar Strengthens

Copper futures eased to around $6.55 per pound on Monday, falling for a fourth straight session as the dollar strengthened amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month following hawkish remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh. A stronger dollar makes greenback-priced commodities such as copper more expensive for buyers using other currencies, weighing on near-term demand. There were also signs that the supply squeeze may be easing, with the premium for spot copper over three-month futures narrowing. Additionally, LME inventories have improved recently as metal deliveries increased. However, traders continued diverting copper shipments toward the US ahead of potential new import tariffs, tightening supplies in global markets. Mining disruptions in major producers Indonesia, Congo and Chile also added to concerns over supply.

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Cryptocurrencies

August 31, 2026

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC pauses, ETH faces $2,500 resistance, XRP holds 200-day EMA key support

Bitcoin trades around $77,900 on Monday, consolidating after pausing its gains following a massive rally in recent weeks. Ethereum faces resistance near $2,500 and fell slightly last week. XRP finds support near the 200-day EMA at $1.21, with a sustained hold above this level suggesting gains ahead. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) have paused their gains after facing a slight pullback last week following their recent massive gains. BTC trades around $77,900 on Monday, and ETH faces selling pressure near the key $2,500 resistance level. Meanwhile, XRP corrects and finds support around a key level that could determine its next directional move. Bitcoin consolidates following a massive rally in recent weeks Bitcoin price trades at $77,893 on Monday, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between roughly $69,700 and $72,300.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69 hovers just below overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive but becoming stretched. On the topside, the next notable resistance aligns with the horizontal barrier at $85,000.  On the downside, initial demand appears around the 200-day EMA at $72,254, then the 50-day EMA at $69,681, followed by the 100-day EMA at $68,887; below these, deeper support emerges at the previously charted horizontal levels of $66,500 and $62,300. BTC/USDT daily chart Ethereum faces rejection near $2,500 mark Ethereum price trades at $2,421 on Monday, holding a bullish near-term bias as price remains comfortably above the key EMAs. The 50-day EMA at $2,101, together with the 100-day EMA at $2,037 and the 200-day EMA at $2,161, forms a broad underlying demand zone that reinforces the constructive structure while ETH consolidates near recent highs.  Momentum remains supportive, with the RSI hovering around 66 and avoiding extreme overbought territory, while the MACD stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained but moderating upside pressure. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier near $2,500, ahead of a more significant cap at $3,000, where profit-taking could intensify if bulls extend the rally. On the downside, initial support sits around the 200-day EMA at $2,161, followed by the 50-day EMA at $2,101 and the 100-day EMA at $2,037, which should cushion deeper pullbacks. A break below the psychological $2,000 level would expose the distant structural floor at $1,505, while sustained trading above the clustered moving averages keeps the broader bullish tone intact. ETH/USDT daily chart XRP finds support near 200-day EMA XRP price trades at $1.350 on Monday, maintaining a broadly bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $1.204 and $1.209, respectively. However, the pair is now testing the 200-day EMA at $1.351 as immediate support, capping further downside for now.  The RSI around 59 suggests constructive but not overextended momentum, while the positive MACD reading with a small positive value hints at waning yet still supportive bullish pressure after the recent sharp rally. On the topside, initial resistance sits at the horizontal level of $1.900. On the downside, the first meaningful support appears at the 200-day EMA at $1.351, followed by the $1.300 horizontal level, ahead of a supportive cluster formed by the 100-day EMA at $1.209 and the 50-day EMA at $1.204. At the same time, a deeper structural floor sits at the $1.000 handle.  As long as XRP stays above the $1.300 area, the technical backdrop would continue to favor consolidation with potential for renewed upside attempts toward the recent high around $1.699 and beyond the $1.900 mark. XRP/USDT daily chart

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Banks

August 31, 2026

United States Dollar: Rebound needs stronger payrolls data – TD Cowen

TD Cowen’s Washington Strategy team, led by Chris Krueger, notes that a durable rebound in the Dollar hinges on stronger US policy follow-through and renewed upside surprises in US data. The analysts remain broadly bearish on the Dollar for now, highlighting limited upside versus the Canadian Dollar and Chinese Yuan as markets await key US payrolls and inflation releases. USD outlook tied to data strength "Durable USD rebound requires stronger policy follow-through & renewed upside in US data." "US payrolls likely to post a meaningful rebound in Aug after very disappointing July showing. EUR's CPI release also top of mind for markets." "While US rates digest the updates to the Treasury's buyback program, the curve remains flatter & term premium has dipped. US markets will focus on payrolls next week, w/ a stronger print likely to cause a sharper reaction than a subdued employment report."

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Markets

August 31, 2026

Gold drifts lower below $4,450 as hawkish Warsh remarks lift Fed hike bets

Gold price declines to around $4,445 in Monday’s early Asian session. Fed’s Warsh warned the central bank still has ‘work to do’ on inflation.  US military strikes Iranian rocket launchers in first attack in weeks.  Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $4,445 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal edges lower on a surprisingly hawkish speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.  The Fed Chairman warned on Friday that inflation is not slowing significantly and that unless policymakers become confident it is, the central bank has “work to do.” Traders raise their bets on a September rate hike following Warsh’s speech, marking the closest he has come to acknowledging interest rate hikes ‌may be needed to ease price pressures. Markets now ‌see a 56.9% probability of a US rate hike in September, compared to 39.9% before Warsh’s comments, and an 88.7% odds of a December increase, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high. “Gold is getting slapped hard as Chair Warsh affirms that inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and the Fed has ‘work to do.’ While it ‌may once again be ‘speak loudly and carry a short stick,' this will make the market price the September meeting as a coin flip,” independent analyst Tai Wong said. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East could raise oil-driven inflation concerns, weighing on the yellow metal. Bloomberg reported on Sunday that the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, following weeks of relative calm. The attack by the US was the first military action against Iran in more than a month, as US President Donald Trump has switched to a campaign to squeeze Tehran’s economy. Gold sentiment seen resilient even if Fed tone turns more hawkish According to TD Securities, a shift in tone from Fed Chair Warsh could test the recent optimism in precious metals, but is unlikely to fully derail it. The bank argues that “a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Warsh would be a catalyst for some reversal in the yellow metal,” yet stresses that “the bar is likely high to reverse the improved sentiment in precious metals,” with positioning and underlying narratives still broadly supportive. Warsh flags unfinished inflation work as financial conditions stay loose Fed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish-leaning message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 7.4 versus a 6.5 historical average, underscoring that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to target or “we have work to do.” Warsh highlighted healthy consumer spending, stable labor markets, and rapid business investment alongside “hard-pressed” characterizations of financial conditions as restrictive, while stressing that better summer inflation prints do not yet signal a meaningful shift in underlying trends and that the predominant focus must remain on prices. The emphasis on a firm 2% PCE target, durable-yet-fragile inflation expectations, and limited signs of policy restraint in credit and loan markets reinforces a bias toward keeping policy tight for longer, a backdrop typically supportive of the Dollar against lower-yielding peers. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged on the day, moving 0.00 points to hold at a still-elevated 129.70, firmly in hawkish territory despite the lack of incremental shift. The combination of a stable but high index reading and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score signals that Fed communication continues to lean hawkish overall, maintaining support for the Dollar while keeping markets sensitive to incoming inflation data and expectations. Technical Analysis: Gold price is well-supported above the 100-day SMA In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, suggesting a well-supported uptrend despite the recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 keeps momentum in mildly positive territory, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand but without overbought conditions. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 20-day Bollinger upper band near $4,725, where a sustained break would open the way to fresh record highs. On the downside, initial support is seen around the current area and the Bollinger middle band at $4,430, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,370; a deeper pullback could extend toward the Bollinger lower band at $4,135, where buyers would be expected to reappear.

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Markets

August 31, 2026

XAG/USD falls to near $66.00 amid Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone

Silver falls following hawkish Jackson Hole remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaling potential further rate hikes. CME FedWatch tool suggests that markets are pricing in a 57.5% chance of a 25-bps Fed rate hike next month. Silver struggles as oil prices rise after Iran launched a coordinated missile strike across multiple locations. Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The non-yielding Silver declined following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh said on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers will "have work to do" if they were not confident cost-of-living pressures were easing for Americans. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” said Warsh. “Otherwise, we have work to do,” he added. Moreover, the Fed's next interest rate decision will be made on September 15-16. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in nearly a 57.5% odds of at least 25 basis points (bps) next month, up from 35% before Fed Chair Warsh’s speech. Silver also remained pressured by higher oil prices after Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles across multiple locations, including Tehran, Lorestan, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Shiraz. The strikes, targeting positions toward the Strait of Hormuz, came in direct response to a vow by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to avenge a Sunday United States (US) strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island. The preceding US strike marked the first direct attack on Iranian military positions in over a month, explicitly targeting rocket sites prepared to lay mines in the strategic waterway. While American forces reported closely monitoring the Strait to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global trade, Washington's broader strategy had recently favored economic sanctions over direct military actions to compel Tehran back to the negotiating table. However, TD Securities cited that the backdrop for precious metals has improved as investors reassessd the policy stance of the Fed and the outlook for the Dollar. Strategists note that, "beyond the Fed's willingness to look past an energy-driven inflation shock, the re-ignition of the dollar debasement theme has also fueled renewed macro discretionary appetite in precious metals," helping to draw fresh interest into the complex.

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Commentary

August 31, 2026

United States: Labour market watch – NBC Economics and Strategy

NBC Economics and Strategy report that U.S. nominal personal income rose 0.4% in July, double expectations, while spending increased 0.2% and real disposable income climbed 0.4% with flat real spending. They expect August nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 80K, keeping unemployment at 4.1% as participation edges up, and note PCE inflation holding at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core. Income, jobs and PCE inflation "After advancing 0.2% in June, nominal personal income rose 0.4% in the United States in July, surpassing the median economist forecast calling for a +0.2% print. Nominal personal spending, for its part, grew 0.2% in the month, led by a 0.6% gain in the services sector. After adjusting for inflation, disposable income rose 0.4%, while spending was flat." "Still in the U.S., the headline PCE deflator in July printed at 3.7% on a 12-month basis, unchanged from the prior month and one tick above consensus expectations (3.6%). The 12-month core measures also stayed unchanged, at a consensus-matching 3.3%. On a monthly basis, both the headline and the ex-food and energy indices moved up 0.2%." "In the U.S., the release of the August nonfarm payroll figures is expected to attract considerable attention. Based on the decent weekly data released by ADP and previously published “soft” employment indicators, such as S&P Global's flash composite PMI, job creation likely rebounded in the month. Layoffs, for their part, may have remained very limited, judging by the extremely low number of initial jobless claims." "These two factors combined should, in our view, result in an increase of 80K in nonfarm payrolls. The household survey could also show a healthy gain which should, however, leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% if, as we anticipate, the labour force participation rate rose by one-tenth to 61.5%."

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Markets

August 31, 2026

Corn Extends Rally as US Crop Concerns Mount

Corn futures climbed further above $5.1 per bushel, reaching a fresh high since July 2023 as mounting concerns over US crop prospects and tightening global supplies continued to support prices. The USDA cut its 2026 US corn yield forecast by 2.3 bushels per acre to 180.7, while the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found that extreme July heat and excessive rainfall had damaged crops across parts of the Corn Belt. Rising disease pressure following heavy August rainfall has further clouded the outlook. Meanwhile, prolonged heat and drought have weakened European corn production, with French crop conditions falling to just 28% good-to-excellent, while constrained Ukrainian exports are adding pressure to global supplies. The USDA also raised its US corn export forecast by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion, reflecting stronger global demand. Corn futures gained 5.5% last week and 15.6% in August, putting them on track for their strongest monthly gain since April 2021.

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Energies

August 31, 2026

Oil Rises as US Strikes Iranian Rocket Launchers

Crude oil climbed above $85 per barrel on Monday, starting the week higher after the US military targeted Iranian rocket launchers preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such attack in more than a month. US forces also said they are closely monitoring the waterway and remain prepared to safeguard the free flow of commerce. The US last launched missiles at Iranian targets in late July but has since shifted its focus toward squeezing the country’s economy through sanctions to push Tehran back to the negotiating table. An Iranian official said Friday that resuming diplomacy with the US “isn’t impossible” following constructive discussions with Qatar, a mediator in the conflict. Meanwhile, reports indicated that around 6 to 8 million barrels of crude are still flowing through Hormuz each day despite the absence of a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran.

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Markets

August 31, 2026

US Futures Slip to Start the Week

US stock futures slipped on Monday as oil prices jumped after the US military targeted Iranian rocket launchers preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such attack in more than a month. Investors also digested hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who reiterated his commitment to bringing inflation down, strengthening bets for an interest rate hike in September. Meanwhile, the Dow is up 2.05% in August, on track for its fifth consecutive monthly gain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have also advanced 2.96% and 4.05%, respectively, this month, supported by strong performance in technology stocks. Investors now turn their attention to Friday’s August jobs report for further clues about the health of the economy. On the corporate front, earnings are due this week from Broadcom, Dell, Palo Alto Networks and Snowflake, among others.

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Markets

August 31, 2026

Gold Extends Fall on Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold fell below $4,450 an ounce on Monday, extending a sharp drop in the previous session as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh revived expectations for an imminent interest rate hike. In his Jackson Hole address on Friday, Warsh warned that inflation is not easing significantly and reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, while noting that financial conditions are not currently restrictive. Markets are now pricing in around a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, up sharply from roughly 40% a week earlier. Gold also remained pressured by rising oil prices after the US military targeted Iranian rocket launchers preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such attack in more than a month. Still, the metal is on track to gain over 10% for the August, driven in large part by the so-called debasement trade.

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Energies

August 31, 2026

European Gas Rises on Fresh Middle East Fighting

European natural gas prices rose near €69/MWh, the highest level since January 2023, as renewed fighting in the Middle East raised concerns over further delays to LNG exports from the Persian Gulf. Iran said on Sunday that it had launched an attack on US air bases in Jordan, hours after US forces struck two Iranian launchers in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening fears of further disruptions to shipping through the key waterway. The disruptions have already constrained LNG exports from major Gulf producers such as Qatar, tightening supplies to Europe during the critical gas-storage refill season. European gas storage facilities were 63% full in the final week of August, well below historical averages and among the lowest levels recorded for this time of year. Although the European Commission has recently indicated there is no immediate concern over gas supplies or storage levels, the risk remains that intensified competition with Asia for supplies could push prices even higher.

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Forex Trading

August 31, 2026

Dollar Holds Gains on Hawkish Warsh Remarks

The dollar index traded around 99.6 on Monday after rising sharply in the previous session, as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh led traders to increase bets on an imminent interest rate hike. In his Jackson Hole address on Friday, Warsh warned that inflation is not slowing meaningfully and reaffirmed that policymakers remain committed to returning inflation to their 2% target. Markets are now pricing in around a 57% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September, up sharply from about 40% a week ago. A surprise upward revision to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index also provided support for the dollar. Investors now turn their attention to Friday’s August jobs report for greater clarity on the outlook for US monetary policy. Elsewhere, oil prices jumped after the US military targeted Iranian rocket launchers preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, boosting safe-haven demand for the greenback.

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Forex Trading

August 29, 2026

Three markets to watch next week

Last week was dominated by uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, tensions involving Russia and, of course, Nvidia’s outstanding earnings and expectations ahead of Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. That is now in the past, however, and the coming days are likely to bring another dose of volatility given several key macroeconomic releases and other important events. Investors should pay particular attention to next Friday’s U.S. labor market data, Tuesday’s eurozone inflation reading, and interest rate decisions from the central banks of New Zealand and Canada. In this context, instruments such as US500, EURUSD and USDCAD are worth watching closely. US500 This week has been positive for Wall Street investors, largely thanks to Nvidia’s phenomenal earnings and its very optimistic revenue growth outlook. Next week, the key test for the S&P 500 index and US500 futures will be a series of U.S. economic data releases. On Tuesday, investors will receive the ISM Manufacturing Index and the JOLTS report, followed on Wednesday by the ADP employment report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, while Thursday will bring the ISM Services Index. The main event of the week will be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. After the unexpected decline in employment in July, the current market consensus points to an increase of around 60,000 jobs. Historically, sharp downside surprises in NFP data have triggered Wall Street sell-offs on recession fears, while moderate employment growth has supported the “soft landing” scenario and helped equity indices return toward their highs. It is also worth noting that Broadcom and HP will report earnings after the market close on Wednesday. EURUSD The world’s most important currency pair is entering a period packed with key economic releases. Next Tuesday, investors will focus on the preliminary eurozone CPI inflation reading as well as PMI data. These figures will shape expectations ahead of the ECB meeting on September 9–10. Markets are almost fully pricing in a rate cut, meaning the inflation reading could be particularly important for the euro’s valuation. The second half of the week will test the strength of the U.S. dollar, with a speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday and, above all, Friday’s NFP report. The euro may also become increasingly sensitive to changes in energy commodity prices, including European TTF natural gas. USDCAD Canadian dollar-related instruments could face a double dose of volatility next week. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem. The most important moment, however, will come on Friday, when labor market reports from both the U.S. and Canada are released at the same time. Historically, simultaneous employment data from the two economies have generated some of the largest monthly volatility moves in USDCAD. If the BoC delivers a dovish message while U.S. NFP exceeds expectations, the pair could see a strong upward impulse. Beyond the data, trade disputes and oil price developments will remain important drivers.

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Banks

August 29, 2026

Natural Gas: Hormuz risks and Qatari LNG disruption – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Middle East tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping key energy supply routes at risk. Qatar’s extended force majeure on LNG exports threatens European winter gas balances and could re-ignite inflation pressures, while Brent, WTI and Dutch TTF prices reflect a fragile equilibrium in Oil and gas markets. Hormuz bottlenecks threaten European gas "Qatar extended force majeure on LNG supplies to European and Asian buyers as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, keeping a major source of global gas supply offline." "The key risk for Europe is a prolonged tightening in gas supply ahead of winter, with LNG prices already close to double pre-war levels." "Continued disruption would intensify competition with Asian buyers for alternative cargoes, raise import costs and potentially rebuild inflation pressure through energy and industrial channels." "Europe therefore remains highly exposed to any failure to reopen Hormuz and restore Qatari LNG flows." "Iran also indicated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could form part of a broader deal if unspecified U.S. conditions are met, keeping the shipping route central to any de-escalation."

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Banks

August 29, 2026

South Korean Won: Higher rates and chip boom support gains – ING

ING’s Chris Turner reports that the Korean Won (KRW) continues to advance, driven by back-to-back Bank of Korea (BoK) rate hikes to 3.00% and a Dot Plot pointing to 3.25% in six months. Upgraded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts linked to a chip export boom underpin the currency, though authorities may worry about KRW/JPY highs and USD/KRW looks due for consolidation. BoK tightening and export-led growth "The Korean won continues its advance. The driver this week has been back-to-back rate hikes from the Bank of Korea, with the policy rate now a reasonably high 3.00%. The Bank of Korea has its own, Fed-like, Dot Plot." "The median expectation is for the policy rate to reach 3.25% in six months' time. The good news is that rate hikes are not only being driven by above-target inflation, but by broadening and strengthening growth prospects. GDP forecasts have been revised substantially higher for 2026 and 2027 as the chip export boom filters across large parts of the economy." "However, KRW/JPY has quickly returned to the highs seen in 2023/24. This might be a problem for Korean authorities fearful of Japanese competition in third markets. Yet having suffered such a weak won for so long, we suspect local authorities will be prepared to tolerate current strength." "There is an outside risk to 1350, but USD/KRW has come a long way in a short space of time and is probably due some consolidation."

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Banks

August 29, 2026

Philippine Peso: BSP tightening bias on inflation risks – DBS

DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng note that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0% to anchor inflation expectations and support the Peso. Philippine Peso (PHP) is the only ASEAN-6 currency weaker in 3Q26 versus the Dollar, and DBS flags above-target inflation as leaving room for one more measured BSP hike this year. Peso underperforms peers in 3Q26 "The Philippines’ BSP hiked its benchmark rate by 25bps to 5.0% yesterday, in line with our expectations, in a bid to contain inflation expectations and support the currency." "The peso is the only ASEAN-6 currency to have underperformed so far in 3Q26 (-0.8% vs the USD), while the others have appreciated by 0.9-1.7% over the same period." "Our baseline view is that ASEAN-6 central banks will remain on hold through the rest of 2026, with the Philippines as the sole exception. Above-target inflation leaves open the possibility of one final, measured BSP rate hike." "Such developments could bring BI and the BSP back into the tightening conversation first, while other central banks would respond more gradually."

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Banks

August 29, 2026

Malaysian Ringgit: BNM seen on steady policy path – DBS

DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep its Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 2.75% on September 3, maintaining the stance adopted after its July 2025 insurance cut. They highlight contained Malaysian inflation and robust 2026 growth near 5%, arguing there is little urgency for rate hikes despite some market expectations. BNM expected to stay on hold "We expect BNM to maintain its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% on September 3, unchanged since its 25bps insurance rate cut in July 2025." "The central bank will likely continue assessing that the current monetary policy stance remains conducive to supporting economic growth amid ongoing price stability." "As a result, overall growth could be around 5% in 2026." "While some market participants expect BNM to reverse its previous insurance easing with a rate hike over the next couple of meetings, we see little urgency for the central bank to do so." "Malaysia’s headline inflation has remained contained despite the Middle East shock, easing to 1.8% yoy in July 2026, the lowest since March, and within policymakers’ 2026 average forecast of 1.5-2.5%."

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Banks

August 29, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Undervaluation and export gains questioned – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur challenges recent internal analysis on CNY undervaluation and exports, arguing that China’s exchange-rate management and gold purchases point to deliberate weakening. He highlights China’s outsized export and trade-surplus gains since 2019 and notes that a roughly 20% real exchange-rate advantage is unlikely to be neutral for global trade flows. Exchange-rate policy and export dominance "Between 2019 and the end of 2025, China increased its real exports by 47%, while global trade grew by only 15% over the same period. China has therefore gained market share somewhere in the world. During the same period, China’s trade surplus rose from about USD 400 billion to USD 1,180 billion." "Looking exclusively at manufactured goods, China’s trade surplus in 2025 amounted to 1.75% of global gross domestic product. Even in their best years, the world’s top exporters - Germany and Japan - did not even reach this figure combined." "Unlike the D-Mark or the JPY - which, however, appreciated sharply against the US dollar in the late 1980s - the real exchange rate of the CNY depreciated by about 10% on a trade-weighted basis between 2019 and 2025, and by as much as 22% against the euro." "Now, certainly not all of this can be attributed to the undervalued CNY. In economics, there is rarely (if ever) just one reason for a particular outcome. And in some product groups, China has actually created a global export market where none existed before." "But as an economist, I find it nevertheless difficult to argue that a 20% price difference has no effect on supply and demand."

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Banks

August 29, 2026

South Korean Won: Strong exports support KRW and KOSPI – DBS

DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect South Korea’s August exports to stay strong near 60% year-on-year, underpinning the outlook for the KOSPI and Korean Won (KRW) even as growth moderates from June’s peak. They also see headline and core CPI around 3%, reinforcing its view that further Bank of Korea (BoK) rate hikes are likely this year. Exports robust, inflation reaccelerating "August trade and inflation data will be the key focus in the week ahead. Exports are expected to remain strong at around 60% yoy in August, as inferred from the first 20 days of data (+56% yoy), resulting in a strong trade surplus of around USD30bn." "This should provide fundamental support for the outlook for the KOSPI and KRW. That said, export growth likely peaked at 70.4% yoy in June and is set to moderate for a second consecutive month in August, corroborating our view that the AI supercycle is approaching a peak." "On the prices front, headline CPI is expected to rebound to around 3% yoy in August, after temporarily moderating to 2.8% in July. Core CPI is also expected to edge up further to around 3%, converging with headline CPI." "This should reinforce the case for further BOK rate hikes in the remainder of the year." "In addition to lingering supply-side inflation pressures amid uncertainty over energy prices, demand-side inflation is expected to gradually build as consumption recovers and downstream pricing power improves."

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Energies

August 29, 2026

Heating Oil Market Tightens as US Inventories Hit Record Low

US heating oil prices remained around $4.25–$4.50 a gallon, more than 80% higher than a year ago, as supplies fell to their lowest seasonal level on record. US distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell to 103.4 million barrels in the week ending August 21, the lowest level recorded for this time of year since comparable data began in the early 1980s. The situation is particularly concerning as demand typically rises in the autumn, driven by winter heating, Northern Hemisphere harvests and Southern Hemisphere planting. The Iran war has disrupted refined-fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while Russia’s suspension of diesel exports and ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries are further tightening global availability. US refiners are benefiting from exceptionally strong demand, with diesel refining margins reaching record levels and exports rising sharply. However, increased US shipments remain insufficient to offset the global supply shortfall.

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Week Ahead – Aug 31st

Global markets are underpinned by long-term interest rates, which remained elevated at the turn of September amid high energy prices, ample AI-related corporate debt issuance, and wide budget deficits against signs of resilient economic growth. Economic data from the US will be centered on the labor market as FOMC members note the US is at full employment, headlined by the BLS Employment Situation report. ISM PMIs are also featured. In Europe, Eurozone inflation and unemployment rates are awaited. PMIs will also be the focus in China for its first batch of August data. A busy week in Japan will include retail sales, the unemployment rate, industrial production, and consumer confidence. GDP data is due from Brazil, India, and Australia, while central banks in Canada and New Zealand will decide on policy.

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Hawkish Fed Chair Warsh Boosts the Dollar and Sinks Gold

The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 2-week high on Friday and finished up by +0.61%.  The dollar jumped on Friday on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh, who warned inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and vowed that policymakers will return inflation to their 2% target.   The chance of a Fed rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting rose to 57% from 36% before Warsh’s speech.  Friday’s unexpected upward revision in the University of Michigan US Aug consumer sentiment index also supported the dollar.  Limiting gains in the dollar was the unexpected downward revision to US 2026 nonfarm payrolls, signaling the labor market was weaker than previously stated, a dovish factor for Fed policy.  Also, the unexpected contraction in the Aug MNI Chicago PMI is negative for the dollar. Fed Chair Warsh said he's impressed by the economy, which appears to have strengthened, and said inflation data don't suggest the trend has meaningfully improved.  He added that policymakers must be confident inflation will return to their 2% target; otherwise, the Fed has "work to do." The US Aug MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -10.5 to 47.1, weaker than expectations of an increase to 57.9 and the steepest pace of contraction in 8 months. The University of Michigan US Aug consumer sentiment index was revised upward by +0.7 to 51.7, stronger than expectations of no change at 51.0. The University of Michigan US Aug 1-year inflation expectations were unexpectedly revised downward to 4.0% from 4.3% versus expectations of an upward revision to 4.4%.  The Aug 5-10 year inflation expectations were kept unrevised at 3.3%, right on expectations. The annual benchmark revisions to 2026 US nonfarm payrolls showed an unexpected decline of -79,000 jobs, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of a +183,000 increase. The markets are discounting a 57% probability of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) fell to a 1-week low on Friday and finished down by -0.62%.  The euro tumbled on Friday after the dollar rallied on a hawkish tone in Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.  The euro also has some negative carryover from Wednesday’s report from Bloomberg that said Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end.  A supportive factor for the euro was Friday’s report on Eurozone Aug economic confidence, which rose more than expected to a 7-month high.  The Eurozone Aug economic confidence index rose +1.3 to a 7-month high of 98.4, stronger than expectations of 97.5. The markets are discounting a 94% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) rose by +0.44% on Friday.  The yen dropped to a 4-week low against the dollar on Friday after hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Warsh pushed the dollar and T-note yields higher.  The yen also continues to suffer from weak interest rate differentials, with the BOJ's current policy rate of 1.00%, well below the Fed's federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75%. The yen found some support on Friday’s economic news that showed Japan’s July jobless rate unexpectedly declined, a sign of strength in the labor market.  Also, the Aug Tokyo CPI rose as expected, a sign of inflation pressures that are hawkish for BOJ policy.  The yen has underlying support from increased expectations of a BOJ rate hike in either September or October. The government favors a rate hike to support the yen and prevent inflationary pressures stemming from the weak yen.  Finally, the yen has ongoing support from the recent coordinated US-Japan intervention and fears that further intervention might be forthcoming if the yen remains weak. The markets are discounting an 84% chance of a +25 bp BOJ rate hike at the September 18 policy meeting.  The Japan July jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 2.4%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 2.5%. The Japan Aug Tokyo CPI rose to +1.9% y/y from +1.8% y/y in July, right on expectations.  The Aug Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food and energy rose to +2.0% y/y from +1.8% y/y in July, in line with expectations. October COMEX gold (GCV26) closed down -133.10 (-2.88%) on Friday, and September COMEX silver (SIU26) closed down -2.436 (-3.51%). Precious metals plunged to 1-week lows on Friday and settled sharply lower after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Warsh pushed the dollar index to a 2-week high.  Mr. Warsh’s comments boosted the chance of a Fed rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting to 57% from 36% before he spoke, slamming precious metals prices.  Also, higher global bond yields on Friday were bearish for metals prices.  Recent fund support for precious metals is bullish for prices, as long holdings in gold ETFs climbed to a 4-month high today.  Long holdings in silver ETFs also rose to a 4.75-month high on Tuesday. Strong central bank demand for gold is supportive of gold prices, following the Aug 7 news that bullion held in China's PBOC reserves rose by +640,000 ounces to 76.08 million troy ounces in July, the twenty-first consecutive month the PBOC boosted its gold reserves.

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Energies

August 29, 2026

Nat-Gas Prices Fall Ahead of Opening of Texas Pipeline

October Nymex natural gas (NGV26) on Friday closed down -0.026 (-0.89%). Nat-gas prices settled lower on Friday ahead of Energy Transfer LP’s scheduled start date next week for its Hugh Brinson pipeline in Texas.  The pipeline, scheduled to begin service on September 1, will be able to move about 2.2 bcf/day of gas from the Permian Basin to East Texas, potentially boosting domestic nat-gas supplies at Erath, Louisiana, where benchmark US gas futures are traded at the Henry Hub.  Losses in nat-gas prices were limited on Friday ahead of hot US weather next week, which could boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning use.  According to the Commodity Weather Group, above-average temperatures are expected across the eastern two-thirds of the US from September 2-11. As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 22 rose +6.1% y/y to 100,895 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending August 22 rose +2.2% y/y to 4,365,212 GWh. US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 113.0 bcf/day (+4.5% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 78.9 bcf/day (+8.2% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 19.5 bcf/day (+10.0% w/w), according to BNEF. As a bearish factor, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on August 11 projected that US nat-gas storage levels will swell to 3,985 bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average.  US nat-gas inventories are currently +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, a sign of robust supplies.  A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand.  Thursday's weekly EIA report supported nat-gas prices, showing a +15 bcf increase in US nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 21, right on expectations but below the 5-year weekly average of +33 bcf.  As of August 21, nat-gas inventories were down -1.0% y/y and +5.5% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of August 25, gas storage in Europe was 64% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 81% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended August 28 rose by +5 to a 5-month high of 132 rigs, just below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.

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Energies

August 29, 2026

Dollar Strength and Increased Middle East Oil Flows Weigh on Crude Prices

October WTI crude oil (CLV26) closed down -0.13 (-0.16%) on Friday, and October RBOB gasoline (RBV26) closed up +0.0598 (+2.00%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled mixed on Friday.  Crude prices posted modest losses on Friday after the dollar index ($DXY) rallied to a 2-week high.  Also, signs of larger crude supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz are bearish for crude.  Losses and crude were limited after President Trump signaled the US has no interest in returning to the terms of the deal it signed with Iran in June, casting doubt on oil flows from the Middle East returning to normal anytime soon.  Crude prices are under pressure on signs of larger oil supplies leaving the Middle East. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have risen to 15 million to 16 million bpd, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.  Crude prices also weakened on Friday amid reports that Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC, which could increase the chances of a price war as the remaining members of the cartel compete with one another for customers and market share. Crude prices had dropped more than -8% this week to a 2-week low on Wednesday amid signs of easing Middle East tensions and larger supplies of crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported the US State Department is preparing to send US diplomats back to embassies in the Middle East that were evacuated before and during the war with Iran, suggesting that the Trump administration does not anticipate a return to all-out hostilities with Iran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the US will begin a campaign to sever Iran from the global economy, warning that any country doing business with Iran risks facing US sanctions.  He said the US is focusing on five of Iran's "most vital lifelines," including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, and that countries will have a defined timeline to shut down economic cooperation with Iran; if they don't, the Treasury will act unilaterally.  President Trump has said that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports is putting pressure on the country, and he has no timeline for resolving the US-Iran conflict.  Also, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the US is playing the long game with Iran, implying the US has no plans to de-escalate the conflict, potentially limiting crude supplied from the Middle East. Crude prices also have support amid fresh Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, dampening the prospects of ending hostilities in the Middle East and a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  In addition, Israel has struck Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the Yemen- based Houthis have attacked ships in the Red Sea, and several vessels have been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. In a supporting factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, released on August 12, that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, even as oil demand is taking a hit from the war and high prices.  The IEA said global oil inventories will fall in Q3 at twice the previously estimated rate because of ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war. Crude also has support on concerns that Russian crude production could be disrupted further after a Bloomberg News report on Wednesday said that Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end.  Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, curbing Russian crude production and exports.  Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure knocked Russia’s crude production in July to 8.89 million bpd, the lowest in six years, according to secondary source estimates published by OPEC.  Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Friday that Russia’s gasoline production fell to about 80,000 tons a day in August, only 70% of domestic demand, leading to shortages throughout the country. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September.  The group has now restored all of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  The production increases by OPEC+ might prove difficult to achieve amid renewed US-Iran military attacks in the region.  OPEC's July crude production rose by +1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd.  Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -11% w/w to 97.71 million bbl in the week ended August 21. Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of Aug 21 were +1.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -14.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending Aug 21 rose +0.1% w/w to 13.843 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in November 2025. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 28 fell by -5 to 447 rigs, modestly below the 1.25-year high of 455 rigs from the week of August 14.

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Falling ICE Inventories Boosted Arabica Coffee Prices

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed up +3.20 (+1.03%) on Friday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed down -26 (-0.73%). Coffee prices settled mixed on Friday as they consolidated above Thursday’s lows.  Arabica has support on tight supplies after ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low on Friday.  Robusta coffee is under pressure after ICE robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 9-month high on Tuesday. On Thursday, arabica coffee fell to a 3-week low, and robusta dropped to a 2-month low on the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to add more supply to the market.  Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as space fills up, suggesting farmers holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to increase coffee sales as storage space dwindles.  On Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.5-month high and robusta posted a 3-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported on Wednesday that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 21, up 6 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 91.3% a year earlier.  Also, Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%.  Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%.  Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 27-year low of 223,976 bags on Friday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots on Tuesday. Coffee prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report on August 13 quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should speed up the pace of the country's coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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August 29, 2026

Cocoa Prices Surged on West African Crop Risks

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +475 (+7.69%) on Friday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed up +385 (+8.77%). Cocoa prices soared for a second straight day on Friday and posted 11-month highs.  Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are pushing cocoa prices sharply higher.  The lack of sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana is allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.    Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices.  Ghana’s Cocoa Board said last Thursday that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Also, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Current cocoa supplies are adequate, a bearish factor for prices.  Last Friday, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Also, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,390,667 bags on Friday. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Sugar Prices Retreated on Long Liquidation Pressures

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed down -0.63 (-3.46%) on Friday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -9.90 (-1.89%). Sugar prices gave up an early advance on Friday and sold off sharply, as weakness in the Brazilian real prompted long liquidation in sugar futures.  The real (^USDBRL) fell to a 2-week low against the dollar on Friday, encouraging export sales from Brazil’s sugar producers. An excessive long position by funds in London sugar could exacerbate any long liquidation pressures. Friday’s weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed funds boosted their long positions in London ICE white sugar by 2,830 net-long positions in the week ended Aug 25 to a record 70,766, the most since data began in 2011. Sugar prices have rallied sharply over the past month, with NY sugar posting a 16.5-month high on Friday and London sugar posting a 17-month high on Thursday.  The outlook for smaller global sugar supplies is underpinning prices.  The European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory said Thursday that EU 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop -19% y/y to 13.4 MMT. Also, on Thursday, Green Pool Commodity Specialists projected a 2026/27 global sugar deficit of -3.2 MMT and cut its global 2025/25 sugar surplus estimate to 4.85 MMT from a July estimate of 4.93 MMT.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.  Sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported on Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 13% below normal as of August 26, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  On July 31, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  Last Thursday, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move is a further sign of the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX last Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Cotton Saw Profit Taking Pressure to Close the Week

Cotton futures faced pressure to close the week with Friday losses of 19 to 114 points across the board. December still held up for a weekly gain of 303 points. Crude oil was down 9 cents per barrel, with the US dollar index $0.533 higher. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money adding another 17,173 contracts to their net long in cotton futures and options during the week ending on August 25. That net long stood at 95,841 contracts on Tuesday. Export Sales data has the 2026/27 cotton export commitment level at 4.332 million RB, which is up 27% from a year ago. That is also 38% of USDA’s export projection, well ahead of the 30% pace last year, but lagging the 5-year average.  The Seam reported sales of 2,212 bales on Thursday at an average price of 87.19 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index was up 70 points on August 27 at 98.30 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks were unchanged on 8/27, with the certified stocks level at 66,327 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by another 190 points on Thursday to 71.52 cents/lb.  Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 89.92, down 114 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 91.38, down 103 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 93.34, down 106 points

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Wheat Extended Rally to 3-Year Highs into the Weekend

The wheat complex extended the move to 3-year highs for the winter wheats into the weekend. Chicago SRW contracts rallied 10 ½ to 24 ¼ cents across the board on Friday, with September 85 ½ cents higher on the week. KC HRW futures saw gains of 10 to 24 ¼ cents in the front months, as September was 71 ½ cents higher since last Friday. MPLS spring wheat joined in on the rally, with contracts 8 ¼ to 12 ½ cents higher, as September was up 47 cents this week. Export disruptions and limitations out of the Black Sea has added premium to the market, with a merchant vessel off the Romanian coast catching fire late on Thursday and sinking. It was reportedly struck though no additional info was available  Export Sales data shows wheat sales for the current marketing year at 8.342 MMT, down 31% from the same week last year. That is 40% of the USDA export projection and behind the 52% average.  CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cutting back another 12,314 contracts from their CBT wheat net short position in the week of 8/25 to a net short of 14,171 contracts. Nearby Chicago has rallied 82 cents since Tuesday’s close. In KC wheat, specs added another 9,227 contracts to their net long to 44,062 contracts. Ukraine’s Ag minister expects that the 2027 winter wheat crop “will definitely” be down from the 4.7 million hectares 11.61 million acres. Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.67, up 24 1/4 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.84, up 23 1/4 cents, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.27 3/4, up 24 1/4 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.44 1/4, up 22 1/4 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.45 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.69 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Soybeans Rallied with the Products on Friday

Soybeans posted 14 to 30 cent gains across most contracts on the Friday session. September was up 51 ¼ cents on the week, as November rallied 48 ½ cents. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 20 1/2 cents at $12.53 3/4. Soymeal futures were $1 to $8.10 higher on the day, led by the front months, as September was up $20.50 on the week. Soy Oil was back up 167 to 259 points, with September 124 higher this week. USDA reported a private export sale of 182,000 MT to China this morning for 2026/27, with 226,000 MT during the reporting period to unknown. Another 200,000 MT of soybean meal was sold to both Germany and the Netherlands at 100,000 MT each.  Commitment of Traders data from CFTC showed managed money adding another 46,592 contracts to their net long position in the week ending on August 25. That took their net long to 198,254 contracts. Following reports that the EPA was looking to approve additional small refinery exemptions this week, Reuters reported that the White House is contemplating an increase of quotas for 2027 by 500 million gallons to offset the higher than originally thought exemptions. Nothing has been officially announced by the administration. The weekly Export Sales report showed old crop soybean sales totaling 41.95 MMT, both shipped and unshipped, down 17% from last year. That is 101% of the USDA export projection and in line with last year. Accumulated 2026/27 sales have totaled 14.334 MMT, which is nearly double the same time last year and the 4th largest for the current week in the last 10 years.  Sinograin, a Chinese state stockpiler, is set to auction just 68,000 MT of soybeans on September 2. Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $12.76 1/4, up 19 3/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $12.53 3/4, up 20 1/2 cents, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $12.88, up 20 cents, Jan 27 Soybeans  closed at $13.02 3/4, up 19 3/4 cents, New Crop Cash  was $12.31 1/2, up 21 cents,

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Metals

August 29, 2026

Corn Pushed Gains into the Weekend as Specs Expand Length

Corn futures held onto the Friday gains into the close, with contracts settling 1 to 4 cents higher. September rallied 28 ¼ cents on the week, with December 28 cents. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was back up 2 1/4 cents at $4.84 1/4. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money in corn futures and options adding a total of 126,008 contracts to their net long as of August 25. That net long was tallied at 376,513 contracts, which was the largest since April 2022, but still over 52,000 contracts shy of the Tuesday record going back to 2006.  Specs held a total of 465,500 contracts of outright longs by Tuesday, the largest on record. Export Sales data shows corn commitments for 2025/26 at 87.758 MMT, which is 102% of the USDA export projection and in line with last year’s sale pace, The marketing year ends on Monday.  Accumulated sales new crop for 2026/27 were are at 12.458 MMT, which is down 33.6% from the same week a year ago, but still the 4th largest for the current week going back 30 years.  Safras & Mercado estimates the 2026/27 Brazilian corn crop at 145.6 MMT, a 0.6 MMT increase from their previous number and well above the current 139 MMT USDA estimate. Sep 26 Corn  closed at $5.12, up 1 3/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $4.84 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $5.36 1/2, up 3 cents, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $5.51 1/4, up 4 cents, New Crop Cash  was $4.88 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

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Markets

August 29, 2026

Cattle Markets Breakdown and End the Week on a Sour Note

The Cattle futures markets opened higher on Friday and traded to their respective highs. The markets then worked their way lower eventually reaching their lows for the day. A late rally gave hope we could close in positive territory but that was dashed at the close and the markets settled in the lower end of their ranges. The markets didn’t accomplish much with Friday’s price action with Feeders trading within Thursday’s range and fat cattle dipping below its Thursday low but bouncing off that decline. There wasn’t any major news in the market today unless you count a tweet from the White house that the President is “authorizing legal documents to be drawn in order to allow Farmers and Ranchers to be given the right to PROCESS THEIR OWN FOOD” as earth shattering news. Packers ended up paying their highest price for the week at one point on Friday as some live sales reached 222.00. Cutouts were weaker and they are expected to slaughter 542,000 head this week which is likely the highest slaughter of the summer and maybe for the year. Why? Because it looks like they are making bank at cash prices have collapse off their highs and cutout prices are in the high end of their range for the year, in my opinion. Cattle supply remains tight but the constant pressure forces outside of the producers’ control have taken price to the woodshed but has not pressured the beef price. This has the packer once again taking control of the price action in the cash market and keeping producers on their heels. The plant shutdowns, the border opening and of course the White House’s desire to control the price of beef has led to an exodus of bullish traders from the market. Of course, this has done nothing to affect the price of beef, so the packer is once again laughing on its way to the bank. We’ll see!... October Feeder Cattle made its high at 319.25. This fell short of resistance at 319.45 and price dropped. It made its way to the low at 315.15, stopping just shy of Thursday’s low at 314.90. It Kept trying to work higher but ended up settling closer to the low at 316.525. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 314.20. Support then comes in at 311.90. If settlement holds, we could revisit the Friday high and its nearby resistance. Resistance then comes in at 321.00. October Cattle made its high at 214.00. It failed just below resistance at 214.325. The ensuing breakdown took price to its low at 210.825. This was just below Thursday’s low at 211.375 and support at 210.975. Price held its ground , tried to rally and the pullback into the close saw it settle at 211.725. If settlement holds price could revisit the Friday high. Resistance then comes in at 215.60. A failure from the low could see price test support at 208.80 and then 207.725.

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds above $4.600 with all eyes on Fed Warsh’s speech

XAU/USD flatlines at $4.600 after rejection at $4,700 earlier this week. Investors bide their time on Friday, awaiting Fed Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. Gold maintains a bullish bias while above the 200-day SMA. Gold (XAU/USD) trades practically flat for the second consecutive day on Friday, with the rejection from three-month highs near $4,700 hit earlier in the week contained at a previous resistance area, just below $4,600. Market volatility remains subdued on Friday, with investors focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, due later in the day.  Investors expect Warsh to overcome his distaste for forward guidance and show some hints about the central bank’s near-term policy plans to tame price pressures, amid calls for interest rate hikes from board members. On Thursday, Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt said on CNBC that inflation is “still sticky and we've got to continue to find ways to break through", Later on the day,  Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated that it is “time to act” to bring inflation back to target. Technical Analysis: Bulls remain in charge while above the 200-day SMA XAU/USD trades at $4,599 with the broader bullish stance in play as spot price holds well above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now around $4,525. Momentum indicators in the daily chart endorse the bullish view, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.48 after pulling back from overbought extremes, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding within positive territory. Bears remain contained above late-May highs in the $4,590 area so far, closing the path to the mentioned 200-day SMA at $4,527. Below there, the next downside target would be the August 13 high and August 20 low, at the $4,450 area. Upside attempts remain capped ahead of the $4,700 level (Tuesday's high), ahead of the May 12 high at $4,773 and April's peak, near $4,900.

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Banks

August 28, 2026

European Central Bank: September hike seen with energy risks – Nomura

Nomura’s Euro area team expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting, citing higher HICP inflation and resilient growth. They highlight hawkish comments from ECB officials and note that Brent and Dutch TTF price dynamics could shape additional tightening risks into December 2026. Hawkish officials and energy-linked risks "We expect the ECB to raise rates at its 10 September meeting by 25bp to 2.50% in light of rising HICP inflation, due to the Iran war, and the euro area’s economic resilience. There are clear risks of further rate hikes beyond September, however." "In a similar vein the ECB’s Radev made hawkish comments yesterday, suggesting that the neutral rate is “probably around 2.50%” and that the ECB may eventually be required to raise rates into restrictive territory." "We maintain our view that the ECB will raise rates by 25bp at its 10 September meeting to 2.50%. In the near term, market pricing for the ECB by December 2026 is driven largely by the price of Brent crude oil, as we continue to focus on US-Iran headlines." "However, there are clear risks that a December rate hike could occur should the price of Dutch TTF natural gas rise further. The bulk of the pass-through of moves in the price of Brent crude oil is largely contemporaneous and occurs via the vehicle fuel component within the HICP basket." "However, the pass-through of moves in the price of Dutch TTF natural gas is more lagged and gradual, resulting in more persistent and broader inflationary pressures."

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Banks

August 28, 2026

British Pound: Month-end rebalancing and UK policy mix – BNY

BNY's Geoff Yu notes that month-end rebalancing flows leave the British Pound (GBP) vulnerable, with GBP seen as particularly exposed after strong performance and stretched GBP/USD levels. United Kingdom (UK) assets react to Chancellor Healey’s emphasis on fiscal discipline under the Labour government, while business confidence improves and pricing intentions ease, shaping expectations for the Pound and gilts. Pound exposure and shifting UK backdrop "MXN stood out as the clearest carry expression, while GBP and EUR benefited from hedging flows and relatively supportive rate profiles." "GBP looks particularly exposed given stretched GBP/USD levels and the associated earnings-translation drag, while EUR faces a similar, if slightly less acute, risk." "U.K. Chancellor John Healey said fiscal discipline will be the bedrock of the Labour government’s first budget under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, pledging to remain within existing fiscal rules while deferring decisions on raising defense spending to 3% of GDP until next year's spending review." "The broader policy challenge is balancing tighter fiscal constraints with growing defense and resilience demands, as the U.K. responds to higher security risks, hybrid threats and pressure to increase military preparedness without undermining confidence in the public finances." "The U.K.’s August 2026 Lloyds’ Business Barometer showed business confidence rose 4 points to 53% in August, the highest since March and above the 12-month average of 47%."

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Trade of The Day – COCOA

Facts: EMA60 crossed above EMA200 and EMA100 from below EMA100 is narrowing the distance to EMA200 (from below) Price broke above the 100 level of the FIBO channel RSI [14] is at 66 Recommendation: Long position (buy) on COCOA at the market price Target price (Take Profit, TP): 8530 Stop Loss (SL): 4575 COCOA (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION : The technical situation on the COCOA chart strongly indicates a gaining-momentum trend reversal after an extended correction. This is shown primarily by the behavior of the EMA averages and the FIBO levels. The price broke through resistance around ~5100 and is currently hovering around 6300, which is a favorable starting point for further gains. Fundamentally, the long position is contrarian, but it takes advantage of risk asymmetry on the supply side of the cocoa market. Quarterly publications by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) indicate that the 2025/2026 season may end with a surplus of around 415 million tons, which justifies the sharp decline from levels close to 10,000 a year ago. However, this surplus may be more fragile than it appears. Initial signals from Côte d’Ivoire (a key producer) indicate that harvests and deliveries are delayed. At the same time, Oxford Economics forecasts that a combination of El Niño effects and rising fertilizer prices could reduce yields by about 20% next year. Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels, as well as fundamental analysis of the cocoa market. The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels. The protective stop loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, trend chanels and is based on a Fibonacci level.

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Banks

August 28, 2026

British Pound: Energy-driven inflation risks support GBP against US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG highlights that rising European natural gas prices are reviving inflation risks, which could push the Bank of England toward another rate hike and underpin the Pound. While crude Oil remains contained, UK natural gas futures have surged, and the bank notes that this divergence in energy dynamics may support both the Euro and Pound against peers. Natural gas surge underpins BoE hike risk "As we have highlighted this week, the natural gas backdrop in Europe is certainly pointing to upside inflation risks. Crude oil prices have been more contained but the UK natural gas front future price has gained 62.5% since the start of July and the close yesterday was the highest since January 2023 following the surge in price after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict." "In the July Monetary Policy Report the BoE as always used the futures curve in a 15-day period to a certain date prior to the release (in July’s report it was 20th July) which basically had the natural gas futures prices peaking at a little over 123p in Q4 before declining to under 60p at the end of the forecast period." "Still, the hawks on the MPC, like Catherine Mann, will no doubt highlight the energy-related inflation risks that have actually worsened and therefore makes it more difficult to ignore due to the offsetting weaker domestic economic conditions." "For the BoE, the backdrop does not look as urgent and the data provides continued scope for the BoE to remain more patient than the ECB. Today’s panel topic does not suggest Catherine Mann will use this opportunity to provide an update on her monetary policy views but given her hawkish leanings any comment would likely focus on the potential need to act." "A hike by the BoE is priced by year-end and that is looking more realistic given the natural gas price backdrop. The natural gas price moves in Europe will fuel divergence and provide support for the euro and pound."

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Banks

August 28, 2026

Japanese Yen: Weak currency and cheap burgers – Nordea

Nordea’s Helge J. Pedersen argues that the Japanese Yen appears significantly undervalued versus the Dollar on both OECD purchasing power parity estimates and The Economist’s Big Mac Index. Despite Japan’s strong trade and current account surpluses suggesting room for Yen appreciation, persistently low Japanese interest rates versus the US continue to weigh on JPY and limit sustained currency strength. Yen undervaluation versus Dollar highlighted "It is not every day that the US and Japan join forces in the currency market to strengthen the yen. But that is exactly what happened in late July, after the Japanese currency had approached its lowest level in nearly four decades. The intervention worked – but only briefly." "This is an analysis where economists traditionally look at the so-called purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate – the rate at which an identical basket of goods in Japan and the US would cost exactly the same. This is a rate that the OECD, among others, attempts to calculate on an annual basis, and the latest figures suggest that the yen is significantly undervalued." "And in this year's edition, the message is very clear: Asian currencies, and the yen in particular, look cheap against the dollar. The weakening of the yen has in fact been so dramatic that a Big Mac in Japan is now markedly cheaper than in China, measured in dollars." "Since Japan runs a large trade surplus with the US and a considerable current account surplus more broadly, all of this points to strong competitiveness – and suggests that a strengthening of the currency should be well within reach." "And unless the interest rate gap narrows – for example through further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan – this dynamic will persist, with ever-cheaper Japanese burgers as a consequence."

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Banking

August 28, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Trade war clouds Q2 GDP rebound – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is trading just above its 200‑day moving average near 1.3840 as Canada’s Q2 GDP is expected to rebound strongly, with real GDP seen rising 3.4% SAAR versus a slight Q1 contraction. However, Haddad warns a worsening US–Canada trade war could cut the rebound short and sees current Bank of Canada hike pricing as too aggressive. Loonie faces growth and policy crosswinds "USD/CAD is trading just above support at its 200-day moving average (1.3840). Canada’s economy is expected to recover in Q2 boosted by domestic demand and exports (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York)." "Real GDP is seen rising 3.4% SAAR vs. -0.1% in Q1, which would be stronger than the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2.5% projection. Statistics Canada’s advanced July GDP estimate will also offer an early read on Q3." "However, the worsening US-Canada trade war threatens to cut the rebound short." "Encouragingly, core inflation near 2% gives the BOC room to stay on hold and cushion the economy." "As such, market pricing 75bps of BOC hikes in the next twelve months look too aggressive, leaving scope for a dovish repricing and USD/CAD firmer near 1.4000."

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Banks

August 28, 2026

“Anything else would likely put the Japanese Yen under significant pressure”: Commerzbank on why BoJ should hike rates

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding within a narrow trading range against the US Dollar (USD) at around 159.35, but pressures are rising following an acceleration in Tokyo inflation data. With Tokyo headline CPI reaching 1.9% in August and service sector price gains hitting nearly a one-year high, market odds for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike in September have surged.  While technical indicators point to short-term range-bound action, economists warn that any delay by the BoJ to tighten policy risks triggering renewed downside pressure on the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY daily chart. Source: FXStreet. Accelerating Tokyo inflation strengthens case for September BoJ hike According to Commerzbank, Tokyo’s inflation metrics confirm that price pressures in Japan have firmly reached the central bank's 2% target, particularly across underlying service categories. With the BoJ's current policy rate sitting at the bottom of its neutral range, failing to raise rates in September would risk undermining JPY stability. Nothing stands in the Bank of Japan’s way anymore (...) A bit of uncertainty emains. However, the signs clearly point to an interest rate hike in September. Anything else would likely put the JPY under significant pressure. Technical momentum confines USD/JPY to broad 157.90-159.80 channel Analysts at UOB observe that USD/JPY remains firmly trapped within established technical parameters. Despite a minor uptick in upward momentum, price action reflects consolidation rather than the beginning of a directional trend. Although there has been a slight increase in upward momentum, this is likely to lead to a higher range of 159.15-159.65 rather than a continued advance (...) Our most recent narrative was that USD is likely to trade in a range between 157.90 and 159.80. We continue to hold the same view for now. Will the Bank of Japan raise rates in September? Based on the combined perspective of both institutions, USD/JPY is caught between near-term technical range constraints and mounting fundamental rate hike pressures. While UOB expects the currency pair to remain bound within the 157.90 to 159.80 range over the coming weeks, Commerzbank emphasizes that the ultimate trajectory depends on the BoJ meeting in September, where a failure to deliver the priced rate hike could trigger a sharp depreciation in the Yen.

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Forex Trading

August 28, 2026

Chart of The Day – USD/JPY Eyes 160.00 Again. Will FX Intervention Withstand The Pressure?

The Japanese yen was handed catalysts for gains in the form of higher Tokyo inflation and falling Japanese unemployment, yet it is losing ground against all G10 currencies. USDJPY is dangerously close to its post-intervention peak (160.00; today: +0.12% to 159.500), and a potential impulse following Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole could test the pain threshold for both Tokyo and Washington. Technical Analysis: USDJPY (D1) For a month, USDJPY has been attempting to rebuild its uptrend and sustainably return above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200; black line) following the recent currency intervention. Taking small steps, the exchange rate is approaching the psychological 160.00 level, widely perceived by market participants as the upper limit acceptable to Tokyo and Washington. Price action remains bounded by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level and two moving averages: EMA30 (light purple) and EMA100 (dark purple). Together with the EMA200, they form a narrow corridor (158.00–160.00) that could define a consolidation range for an extended period until either the Fed or the BOJ adopts a more aggressive rate-hiking path. Source: xStation5 What is driving USDJPY today? Tokyo's core CPI (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 1.8% YoY in August from 1.7% in July, rising for the third consecutive month and beating consensus expectations (1.7%). Meanwhile, the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy), closely watched by the Bank of Japan, rose to 2.0% YoY compared to 1.8% in July. Price increases in Tokyo were driven by steady growth in food costs and the gradual pass-through of higher energy and commodity prices from businesses to consumers. Inflationary pressure is further exacerbated by the yen's weakness in recent months (Japan imports 85%–90% of its energy) alongside robust demand in the AI sector. The data confirms that inflation is approaching the Bank of Japan's 2% target, thereby boosting expectations for Japanese rate hikes. Markets are currently pricing in an ~84% probability of a hawkish move in September (the last rate hike occurred in May 2026, raising the policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%).However, given the central bank's history of falling "behind the curve," the market may penalize the yen if inflation leaves the BOJ further behind—leaving the yen under pressure even if the BOJ hikes without signaling a clear tightening trajectory. USDJPY is breaking away from broader FX market trends today, where most G10 pairs are moving sideways with fluctuations below 0.1% ahead of Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. While the greenback has stabilized after recent US debt market turbulence, market demand for policy clarity remains high; a failure to deliver guidance could weaken the dollar and pull USDJPY back from the 160.00 pain threshold.

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Banks

August 28, 2026

Indian Rupee: GDP data to show resilience – DBS

DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect India’s 1QFY27 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to confirm that the economy has weathered geopolitical disruptions better than initially feared. They note stronger consumption gauges, improving production, and ongoing support from services and exports, even as muted wealth effects, soft fuel demand and higher energy costs weigh on some sectors and the external balance. Growth holding up despite disruptions "GDP growth in 1QFY27 is likely to suggest that the economy weathered geopolitical disruptions better than initially factored in." "Our consolidated consumption gauge strengthened during the quarter, even as sentiment indicators, pointed to a more cautious backdrop and wealth effects remained muted amid subdued capital market performance." "Production activity picked up, although demand for industrial fuels and downstream petroleum products remained soft following a series of price adjustments." "Meanwhile, the services sector continued to provide support to overall growth, as reflected in robust bank credit expansion, PMIs remaining in expansionary territory, higher e-way bill generation, and resilient export growth." "Corporate earnings indicators were also broadly constructive, with aggregate revenue growth across listed firms remaining resilient, although higher energy prices weighed on the profitability of oil marketing companies."

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Gold Price – XAU/USD holds gains above $4,600 as bullish bias prevails

Gold may find the primary resistance at the three-month high of $4,697.07. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 67 shows strong bullish momentum. The nine-day EMA of $4,557.72 acts as the primary support. Gold (XAU/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $4,610 during the European hours on Friday. The price of the precious metal is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias. The XAU/USD pair is retaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the short- and medium-term trends aligned to the upside. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 67, hovering in bullish territory but shy of extreme overbought conditions, which suggests upside momentum is still dominant though increasingly stretched. Gold price may rise toward the three-month high of $4,697.07, reached on August 25. A break above this level would open the doors for the XAU/USD pair to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around $4,850.00. On the downside, the immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of $4,557.72, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around $4,500. A break below this confluence support zone would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the Gold price to test the 50-day EMA at $4,336.84, followed by the three-week low of $4311.04, which was recorded on August 14. Gold could soften as real yields firm, Oil extends gains Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight a firmer backdrop in rates and commodities, noting that the "10y US Real Yield @ 2.34 // 2 bp" and "10y US Breakevens @ 2.33 // 1 bp" both edged higher, alongside a rise in "10y German Breakeven @ 2.13 // 2 bp." Credit markets were broadly steady, with "iTraxx Europe 125 @ 51 // unch," "CDX 125 @ 50 // unch," and "CDX EM @ 98.4 // unch," while financial indices were little moved as "iTraxx Sen Fin @ 54 // unch" and "iTraxx Sub Fin @ 87 // +1" showed only marginal shifts. In commodities and FX, Deutsche Bank points to "WTI Oil^ @ 83.13 // +1.94%" and a slightly softer Euro as "EUR/USD^ @ 1.165 // -0.10%." Equity sentiment in Asia was constructive, with the "NIKKEI @ 66624 // +0.74%" and "Hang Seng @ 25685 // +0.47%," while volatility eased as the "VIX @ 14.51 // -0.70" slipped further. Against this backdrop of rising real yields and stronger Oil, the bank notes that "Gold^ @ 4579 // -0.85%" came under pressure.

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Banking

August 28, 2026

Silver: Consolidation near resistance as positioning builds – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong describes Silver as constructive with room for participation to build, as ETF holdings and managed-money positioning rise from light levels. Technical bias is mildly bullish, but momentum is fading near the 70.60–72 resistance band. A decisive break higher, likely requiring softer yields and a weaker Dollar, could open a move towards 80.30. Mildly bullish but needs breakout "Silver momentum has also eased alongside gold after the sharp rebound seen earlier in the month. Our weekly dashboard also noted that ETF holdings have picked up, while managed-money net positioning increased. Importantly, futures positioning remains considerably lighter than in gold, leaving more room for fresh participation if the precious-metals rally resumes." "The increase in speculative positioning appears to have been driven partly by short covering rather than aggressive new longs, suggesting conviction is not yet particularly stretched. That leaves scope for positioning to build further if the macro impulse turns favourable again." "Silver price action shows consolidation over the past week near important resistance. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact though there are signs of it waning while RSI is near overbought conditions." "We remain constructive, though a cleaner extension higher likely requires renewed weakness in yields, USD and a decisive break above the 70.60–72 resistance area." "A sustained break above this zone would provide stronger confirmation that the recovery has further to run, potentially towards 80.30 (38.2% fibo of 2026 high to low)." "Support at 61.30 – 62 area (21, 50 DMAs) before 54-55 levels (2026 low). Recovery bias would be nullified on downside breach."

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Banks

August 28, 2026

US Dollar: Warsh speech risks asymmetric USD reaction – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes the US Dollar has stabilized after last week’s setback, with Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech seen as the next key test. Baur expects little in terms of forward guidance on a September rate hike but highlights potential discussion of changing the Fed’s inflation measure away from the PCE deflator, which could be read as dovish for the Dollar. Warsh guidance and inflation target risks "After the setback at the end of last week, the US dollar stabilized this week and managed to appreciate slightly against the euro as well as most other currencies. Today, however, brings the next test: Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole." "For the markets, two things in particular are likely to be the focus: First, how clearly he speaks regarding a possible interest rate hike in September. And second, whether he hints that the Fed might, as part of the five working groups, change the specific figure to which the Fed’s inflation target refers." "Such a hint would likely nip rate hike expectations in the bud and be interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. The US dollar could come under pressure as a result. The starting point for the US dollar today is therefore somewhat asymmetrical." "The second point is quite interesting. For even though Warsh has repeatedly emphasized in recent weeks that the Fed’s 2% target is non-negotiable, he has never explicitly mentioned the PCE deflator in this context. It could therefore be that the Fed is at least considering applying a different measure of inflation. In this context, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Inflation has been mentioned repeatedly in recent weeks. And for the moment, this looks significantly better than the PCE deflator" "While I consider a hawkish surprise hinting at an interest rate hike unlikely, it would certainly provide significant support for the US dollar. Statements regarding a shift away from the PCE deflator, on the other hand, would likely have a less pronounced immediate impact."

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Banks

August 28, 2026

Euro: Focus on Fed signals and Jackson Hole – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists note that EUR/USD traded at 1.165 as markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, which could shift expectations for the September Fed meeting. They highlight that market pricing still assigns a 35% probability to a hike, and recent Fed commentary shows a divide on how restrictive policy should be. Jackson Hole and divided Fed views "Before we get on to that however, the market focus today will be on the Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Warsh is speaking at 3pm London time. This is a significant one, as the speech is often used by Fed Chairs to make big announcements or send policy signals. Indeed, last year saw former Chair Powell acknowledge “the shifting balance of risks”, which set the stage for rate cuts to resume the following month." "And with market pricing for the September Fed meeting still in the balance (35% chance of a hike), today's speech is particularly important." "With all that to look forward to, we actually heard from several Fed speakers yesterday, which demonstrated the current divide on policy. Some suggested that more restrictive policy was required, including Cleveland Fed President Hammack, who voted for a hike last time. She reiterated that “I think it’s appropriate for us to put some restraint there to help bring inflation back down to target”." "But Boston Fed President Collins said that “I continue to see rates as mildly restrictive”. And Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he wanted “evidence that this inflation shock is not going to be persistent”, but he also said “I’m OK with waiting as we’re getting that.”" "Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Hammack and the ECB’s Schnabel."

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Banks

August 28, 2026

Japanese Yen: Range trading remains intact against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY held in a narrow band around 159.35, with a slight uptick in upward momentum. They expect this to translate into trading between 159.15 and 159.65 rather than a sustained advance. Over the coming weeks, they maintain a neutral stance, looking for range-bound price action between 157.90 and 159.80. Dollar-Yen seen confined to broad band "24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, USD traded within a range of 159.10/159.52, closing little changed at 159.39 (+0.06%). Although there has been a slight increase in upward momentum, this is likely to lead to a higher range of 159.15/159.65 rather than a continued advance." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Tuesday (25 Aug, spot at 159.15), when we highlighted that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 157.90 and 159.80.” Although USD traded in a quiet manner over the past few days, we continue to hold the same view for now."

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Banks

August 28, 2026

New Zealand Dollar: Bearish stance maintained on rate hike pricing – TD Securities

TD Securities’ FX strategist Howard Du maintains a bearish New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bias, noting that Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) tightening is largely priced and NZD positioning has normalized. They expect AUD/NZD to remain supported above 1.20 with a 1.22 year-end forecast, and see a high bar for NZD/USD to sustain gains above 0.60 despite broader US Dollar (USD) weakness. AUD/NZD supported as NZD stays pressured "We hold bearish NZD bias and stick with 1.22 as our AUD/NZD year-end forecast." "Since the hawkish July RBNZ rate hike, FX market has sharply pared back its short NZD positioning vs both the USD and AUD. NZ data releases since then have not provided enough evidence for market pricing to deviate from the RBNZ's latest OCR guidance. As a result, consensus continues to expect another RBNZ rate hike at the upcoming meeting." "Cumulative RBNZ rate hike pricing in the market for rest of 2026 now appears to be elevated vs rest of the world. The NZ Q2 non-tradable CPI was more muted than headline, suggesting risk may be skewed toward NZ inflation also converging lower toward RoW in the coming months, alleviating some rate hike pressure for the RBNZ." "Our base case is for AUD/NZD to stay supported above 1.20 in the coming months (2026 year-end forecast is at 1.22). As for NZD/USD, we believe the bar for NZD/USD to rally above 0.60 remains high, despite the broad-based bearish USD momentum in market."

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Energies

August 28, 2026

Rising Natgas Prices: Winter Outlook

Natural gas prices are gaining due to concerns about supplies to Europe and high temperatures in the USA. Natural gas prices on both sides of the Atlantic are recording dynamic increases, although they are driven by different fundamental dynamics. While the American market is reacting to the current heatwave, the Old Continent is struggling with mounting concerns about supply ahead of the upcoming heating season. Although natural gas prices in the US and Europe remain at opposite poles when looking at returns this year, we have recently observed dynamic increases on both sides of the Atlantic. Source: XTB Europe: supply race against time and risk of a jump to 100 EUR The European market is under the strong influence of concerns about the winter fuel balance. Filling of gas storage in the EU is only about 63–64%, which is significantly lower not only than the 5-year average of 81%, but also below the 5-year minimum. Analysts estimate that storage can be filled to at most approx. 70% before winter, which risks their drainage to a level below 20% at the end of the season. On the other hand, it is worth remembering that the supply situation is slightly better than during the previous energy crisis in Europe. In 2021, when supply problems from Russia began, it was possible to fill storage to 77%, while in 2022, after a very weak end to the heating season (filling fell to 25%), storage was eventually filled to 95%, which was due to the fact that high filling also took place in October. Filling of gas storage in Europe. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP The current situation is further fueled by the tense situation in the Middle East and unfavorable weather. A drop in generation from RES (among others, due to Saharan dust limiting production from photovoltaics in Germany and southern Europe) forces higher gas consumption in the energy sector. To effectively compete with Asia for LNG cargoes from the US, prices in Europe could reach as much as 90-120 EUR/MWh this winter, which is not currently visible in the forward structure of the gas market, but at the same time the differences between winter and summer contracts for 2027 are reaching their highest levels since 2022. Excluding 2021 and 2022, however, current prices are even 20-30 EUR/MWh higher than in previous years. The forward structure remains in clear backwardation after the winter season. It is worth emphasizing, however, that the forward structure does not reflect concerns related to price increases to levels around 100 EUR/MWh. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB USA: heatwave vs. record production In the United States, high temperatures are an impulse for buyers. The Cooling Degree Days index has clearly risen, boosting power plants' demand for gas to power air conditioning and limiting the expected weekly increase in inventories to just 15 bcf (compared to the 5-year norm of 33 bcf). The long-term growth potential of the American raw material still faces hard resistance, however. Very high production of associated gas in the Permian Basin and the expansion of transmission infrastructure (including the Hugh Brinson pipeline) maintain high inventory levels and make it difficult for prices to sustainably move above 3.00 USD/MMBtu. The number of cooling degree days in the USA significantly exceeds the 5-year range, which shows that at a time when temperatures should be falling, they remain at high levels. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Demand for gas oscillates above the 5-year average, and the trend indicates a slow fade towards the beginning of October. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Inventories in the USA have slowed their growth slightly recently, which aids a price rebound towards 3 USD/MMBtu. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Futures structure: short-term fever and long-term calm The futures curves show a clear difference between current tension and the market's long-term expectations: TTF (Europe): The market is in a deep structure of backwardation. Current spot valuations and for the nearest winter (approx. 65–68 EUR/MWh) drop drastically in subsequent years. Valuations for 2027–2028 go down to 30–40 EUR/MWh, and in the 2030 horizon, they tend towards 20–25 EUR/MWh. This shows that investors are paying a high premium for security "here and now," but assume a gradual stabilization of the market in the future. It is also important that a potential gas shortage problem during this winter is not perceived, although at the same time prices currently remain at levels higher than in recent years (not counting 2021 and 2022). Henry Hub (USA): The curve structure maintains classic seasonality. Price peaks fall on winter months (January 2027 and 2028 reaching 4.00–4.70 USD/MMBtu). At the same time, the nearest series of contracts remain suppressed by strong domestic supply. It is worth noting, however, that compared to the curve from a month ago, prices in the short term have risen, showing increased demand now, but at the same time are falling for winter (a drop from around 4.20 to 4.00 for the January contract). The forward structure and its change compared to the situation a month ago show currently growing demand and weakening expectations regarding high consumption during winter, which may result from expectations of lower demand due to El Niño. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Gas prices return to increases Although the fundamentals of American and European gas are different, the situation in the Middle East and LNG gas connect these two worlds, which causes increases on both sides of the ocean. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Stock of the week: NVIDIA: The Best Company in the World?

There are companies that grow rapidly, companies that can increase the scale of their operations for years, and then there is NVIDIA. Yesterday’s results once again showed how difficult it is to find another company on the global market that combines growth, profitability, and scale of operations at a similar level. Revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2027 reached $96.2 billion, clearly exceeding market expectations, while guidance for the following quarter was raised to $108 billion. Even more importantly, NVIDIA is achieving these results with revenue growth of more than 100% year over year, while its core market—AI computing infrastructure—is still only in the early stages of global expansion. This is precisely why the thesis that NVIDIA is the best company in the world is no longer merely a catchy slogan. It is a question of whether there is another company in the market capable of simultaneously growing at such a pace, generating such high margins, and sitting at the very center of the largest investment cycle in technology in decades. What is most remarkable about this story, however, is that NVIDIA is not achieving these results thanks to a one-off boost or a short-lived surge in demand. The company is at the very center of a fundamental transformation in the way the world builds computing power. Successive generations of its chips are being deployed in data centers designed to train and run increasingly advanced artificial intelligence models, and the scale of these investments is growing every quarter. This creates a unique situation for NVIDIA. The larger the models become, the more important inference becomes, and the more companies want to use AI in their real-world operations, the greater the demand for the infrastructure NVIDIA provides. That is why the key question for the company is no longer whether AI will be an important technology of the future. The question is how quickly the world will need to increase computing capacity to build that future—and how much of that market NVIDIA will be able to capture. Results That Raise the Bar Once Again NVIDIA ended the second quarter of fiscal 2027 with revenue of $96.2 billion, representing an 18% increase quarter over quarter and as much as 106% year over year. The result was significantly better than market expectations. Earnings growth looks even more impressive. GAAP net income reached $59.7 billion, compared with $26.4 billion a year earlier, while earnings per share reached $2.46. On a non-GAAP basis, net income was $54.0 billion and earnings per share were $2.22. NVIDIA once again demonstrated something particularly impressive at this scale of operations. Revenue exceeding $96 billion continues to grow at a triple-digit rate, while the company simultaneously maintains a gross margin of 75%. Key figures from the second quarter of fiscal 2027: Revenue: $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter Data Center revenue: $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter Operating income: $63.7 billion, up 124% year over year Net income: $59.7 billion, up 126% year over year GAAP EPS: $2.46, up 128% year over year Non-GAAP EPS: $2.22, up 120% year over year Gross margin: 75.0%, compared with 72.4% a year earlier Edge Computing revenue: $7.2 billion, up 27% year over year Guidance for the third quarter: Projected revenue for the next quarter: $108.0 billion Projected gross margin: 74.0% The results are primarily driven by the Data Center segment, whose revenue reached a record $89.0 billion. That already represents more than 92% of NVIDIA’s total revenue, showing just how strongly the company’s profile has become tied to the development of AI infrastructure. Particularly significant is the fact that growth has not stalled despite the enormous base established in previous quarters. Data Center revenue increased by 117% year over year, meaning NVIDIA can still nearly double the scale of its most important business. At the same time, gross margin remained at 75%, demonstrating that rapid sales growth continues to go hand in hand with exceptional profitability. Even more important than the report itself, however, is the guidance provided by management. NVIDIA expects $108 billion in revenue in the third quarter, with the possibility of a 2% deviation in either direction. This means the company itself is assuming it will exceed the $100 billion quarterly revenue threshold, while its forecast does not include any revenue from data centers in China. Moreover, despite the continued increase in scale, management expects a gross margin of 74%. NVIDIA therefore not only beat expectations for the completed quarter, but immediately raised the benchmark for the next one. This is where the report begins to look truly exceptional. With a company generating nearly $100 billion in quarterly revenue, one might expect growth to gradually slow. Yet NVIDIA is still increasing revenue by more than 100% year over year, more than doubling net income, and maintaining margins at levels that most technology companies have never achieved. Following the results, Jensen Huang emphasized that artificial intelligence is now at a turning point because models are beginning to perform useful, revenue-generating work, and as a result demand for computing power is increasing. According to management, the current cycle is broader than it was a year ago because the largest AI laboratories, startups, open-source models, and applications related to so-called physical AI are all developing simultaneously. This leads to the most important conclusion from the entire report. NVIDIA no longer needs to prove that demand for its products exists. Its main challenge now is to increase its ability to meet that demand. The company reported that its commitments related to deliveries and production capacity had risen to $279 billion, partly due to securing memory supplies. This shows that management is preparing the company for another phase of growth rather than simply maintaining the current level of sales. In NVIDIA’s case, this may be one of the most important pieces of information in the entire report: the company is not behaving like a business preparing for demand normalization. It is behaving like a company assuming that demand for AI infrastructure will continue to grow. Blackwell and the Coming Era of Vera Rubin The current growth of NVIDIA is driven primarily by the Blackwell architecture, which has become the foundation of the latest generation of AI infrastructure. Its importance, however, goes beyond the performance of the chips themselves. NVIDIA is increasingly selling customers complete computing infrastructure, meaning that as data centers grow in scale, the value of individual deployments also increases. Blackwell, followed by its enhanced version, Blackwell Ultra, is currently the main driver of Data Center revenue and will remain so for the next several quarters. At the same time, NVIDIA is already preparing its next generation. Vera Rubin is expected to begin broader deployments in the second half of 2026, and according to the company, the platform is already in full production. Rubin is designed to provide a significant increase in performance for training and running AI models and, above all, to improve the economics of entire data centers. This second element may prove to be the most important. At the current scale of customer investments, every improvement in performance and computing costs increases the economic attractiveness of subsequent generations of NVIDIA infrastructure. The timeline is just as important as the technology itself. The first Vera Rubin systems are expected to reach customers in the second half of 2026, with the largest technology companies and cloud providers among those preparing deployments. This means the transition from Blackwell to Rubin will not be a single event, but another stage in an ongoing investment cycle. NVIDIA therefore finds itself in a situation where the current generation is still generating record revenue while the next generation is already being prepared for deployment. For investors, this primarily means one thing: today’s record Blackwell sales do not necessarily mark the peak of the current cycle; they may instead form the foundation for the next one. It is worth paying attention to the way NVIDIA manages its successive product generations. The company is consistently working to shorten the cycle between new architectures, meaning customers do not have to wait several years for a significant increase in infrastructure capabilities. Blackwell is currently the main driver of results, but its successor is already prepared for deployment, and NVIDIA is announcing additional generations on a similar schedule. From a business perspective, this creates a highly favorable situation. The company does not have to rely on a single product being sold for many years. Instead, it can regularly persuade the same customers to increase their spending on successive generations of infrastructure. With demand for computing power rising, this model could allow NVIDIA to maintain strong revenue growth even when the growth rate of an individual generation gradually begins to slow. NVIDIA: A Financial Machine If revenue growth demonstrates the scale of NVIDIA’s success, its income statement shows just how extraordinary the quality of this business is. The company is not only increasing sales at a rate exceeding 100% year over year, but is doing so with a gross margin of 75%. Moreover, as the company expands, NVIDIA is not losing control over costs. In the second quarter, operating income reached $63.7 billion, while net income amounted to $59.7 billion. This means that for every $100 of revenue, the company retains approximately $62 in net profit after operating expenses. Such profitability is exceptional even among the largest technology companies and shows that NVIDIA’s advantage is not based solely on sales volume, but also on the exceptionally attractive economics of its entire business. Even more important is the company’s ability to convert those profits into cash. NVIDIA generates enormous cash flows, allowing it to simultaneously finance further growth, secure the supplies needed to produce subsequent generations of chips, and return capital to shareholders. In the second quarter alone, the company allocated approximately $26 billion to share buybacks and dividends, while after the end of the quarter it still had approximately $99 billion of authorization available for additional buybacks. This is significant because it shows that at its current scale, NVIDIA does not have to choose between investing in the future and rewarding shareholders. It can do both at the same time. The balance sheet is equally strong. NVIDIA has enormous liquidity and does not need to rely heavily on debt to finance the current investment cycle. This gives the company substantial flexibility in an environment where the overall AI market is still growing rapidly. Importantly, its current financial strength has not been built at the expense of investment. NVIDIA is increasing spending while simultaneously increasing cash flow, which is one of the best possible combinations for a company in an expansion phase. The result is a business that combines high profitability, enormous cash generation, a strong balance sheet, and the ability to continue increasing its scale. What is most impressive, however, is that all these characteristics exist simultaneously. NVIDIA is not a company that has to sacrifice margins in order to gain market share. Nor is it a company that generates high accounting profits while struggling with cash flow. Finally, it does not need significant debt to finance its expansion. Its model works in exactly the opposite way. The larger the AI infrastructure becomes, the more money the company generates, and the more money it generates, the greater its ability to invest in future generations of products and develop the broader ecosystem. This combination of growth, profitability, cash generation, and balance-sheet strength is one of the strongest arguments behind the thesis that NVIDIA is currently one of the best, if not the best-quality company on the global market. The AI Bull Market Is Only Gaining Momentum The biggest question for investors is no longer whether technology companies will spend money on artificial intelligence. They already are—and at a scale that would have seemed unrealistic just a few years ago. The largest cloud providers continue to increase spending on data centers, computing hardware, and the infrastructure required to support AI models, while according to the latest forecasts NVIDIA expects approximately 70% revenue growth in the next fiscal year. Importantly, management is not currently signaling any clear slowdown in demand. Quite the opposite: it points to demand expanding beyond the largest hyperscalers to AI laboratories, enterprises, government customers, and the industrial sector. This expansion of the market could be one of the most important elements of the next phase of the AI boom. Until now, the main source of demand has been the largest technology companies, which have been building infrastructure for their own models and cloud services. NVIDIA is increasingly trying to create a situation in which access to computing power becomes much broader. In August, the company announced cooperation with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR, aimed at mobilizing more than $500 billion in external capital for the development of AI infrastructure. This is not direct NVIDIA revenue, but strategically the initiative is extremely important. The company is attempting to ensure that the development of AI is no longer constrained simply by a lack of capital to build data centers. In practice, NVIDIA is therefore beginning to play a role much broader than that of a chip manufacturer. It wants to participate in building the entire computing-power market, which will subsequently generate demand for its next generations of products. If institutional capital finances the construction of new data centers, cloud providers increase the availability of computing capacity, and enterprises and AI laboratories rent that capacity, NVIDIA can benefit from every subsequent stage of the chain. This creates a highly favorable dynamic. The easier it is to finance infrastructure construction, the more infrastructure can be built, and the more infrastructure that is built, the greater the demand for NVIDIA chips. There is another important signal as well. NVIDIA is not only securing supplies of key components, but is also participating in the construction of future AI factories together with partners from other parts of the ecosystem. Cooperation with SK Group includes, among other things, the development of data centers and long-term security of the memory supplies required for future generations of AI systems. The scale of these projects shows that companies throughout the supply chain are preparing for continued growth in demand rather than for a rapid end to the current cycle. Of course, this is precisely where the biggest risk in the entire story emerges. The larger AI investments become, the more important the question of their economic return will be. Today’s boom is based on the assumption that enormous computing power will eventually translate into productivity gains, new revenue streams, and entirely new business models. If that happens, current investments could be only the beginning of a multi-year infrastructure cycle. If, however, AI monetization proves slower than the pace at which data centers are being built, the market will have to deal with excess computing capacity. For now, NVIDIA’s data suggests that demand remains significantly stronger than supply, and the company continues to prepare for another phase of expansion. This is precisely why NVIDIA is now more than just the biggest beneficiary of the AI boom. It is one of the key players attempting to extend, broaden, and build an entire financial and technological infrastructure around this boom. If this strategy succeeds, the current cycle may prove not to be the end of NVIDIA’s exceptional growth, but merely the first stage of a much larger economic transformation. Key Takeaways After analyzing the results, financial position, and successive product generations, it is difficult to find another company on the global market that combines so many advantages simultaneously. NVIDIA is growing at a rate that seems almost unbelievable given its current scale of operations, while at the same time maintaining margins and generating cash flows characteristic of the most profitable technology businesses. In the second quarter, revenue increased by 106% year over year, Data Center revenue by 117%, and management forecasts $108 billion in revenue for the following quarter. An even stronger signal is the expected approximately 70% increase in revenue in the next fiscal year, significantly above Wall Street’s previous expectations. The second element of the equation is technological leadership. Blackwell is currently the main driver of growth, but NVIDIA is already moving toward the next generation in the form of Vera Rubin. This means the company does not have to wait for the current cycle to run out before launching another one. If demand for computing power continues to increase, NVIDIA can increase the value of its products with each successive generation. This combination of a growing market and a very rapid product cycle could allow the company to maintain its advantage for much longer than a traditional analysis of the semiconductor cycle might suggest. The third advantage is the sheer size of the market itself. The largest hyperscalers continue to allocate enormous amounts of money to expanding AI infrastructure, but demand is clearly beginning to move beyond a handful of major technology companies. NVIDIA points to the growing importance of AI laboratories, enterprises, government customers, startups, and industrial applications. The company is also attempting to expand this market by involving institutional capital in financing additional data centers and AI infrastructure. If this process continues, the market available to NVIDIA could be significantly larger than the spending of its biggest customers today. All of this leads back to the thesis with which we began this article. NVIDIA may be the best company in the world today not because it is the largest, but because its most important advantages reinforce one another. It has technology that the market needs, products positioned at the center of the largest investment cycle in technology, exceptional profitability, enormous cash generation, and the ability to rapidly introduce successive generations. Moreover, instead of simply benefiting from the AI boom, NVIDIA is increasingly participating in the construction of the market that is intended to drive that boom for years to come. Of course, this is also where the greatest risk lies. At NVIDIA’s scale, the company can no longer simply grow. It has to keep growing faster than the market expects. Any slowdown in AI spending, faster development of proprietary chips by its largest customers, supply-chain problems, or pressure on margins could have a much greater impact than in the case of an ordinary technology company. There is also the question of whether the enormous investments in AI infrastructure will ultimately generate sufficiently high returns. For now, however, NVIDIA’s financial results and forecasts indicate that the cycle is still accelerating rather than fading. Therefore, describing NVIDIA as the best company in the world should not be interpreted as a statement that it is the safest investment or that its stock price must continue to rise. It is primarily an assessment of the quality of the underlying business. In terms of the combination of growth, profitability, technological advantage, balance-sheet strength, and its position within the most important technological trend of our time, it is difficult to find another company that is equally complete. NVIDIA is not merely selling the products needed to build the AI-powered future. Increasingly, it is becoming one of the companies actually designing that future. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Jackson Hole Focus

Jackson Hole focus: is Nvidia is more important than the Fed? As we get to the end of the trading month for the UK, the focus will shift from the corporate back to the macro. Nvidia’s stunning 8% rally after its Q2 earnings report reignited the AI trade on Thursday, with a broad-based rally that lifted the Nasdaq 100 by more than 1.4% and the S&P 500 by 0.7%, led by a 3% gain in the tech sector. World waits for Warsh to speak The rally could pause on Friday, and futures prices are pointing to some small declines for Nvidia and a 0.3% drop in the Nasdaq 100 later today, as the focus shifts to Jackson Hole and the speech from Kevin Warsh that the whole world is waiting for. Huang’s warning on memory costs Thursday’s rally is worth revisiting. Nvidia’s CEO essentially jump-started the AI trade when he said that the company would double its supply commitments to $279bn, primarily due to memory costs. However, the memory chip makers did not benefit from this rally. SanDisk and Micron saw their share prices surprisingly fall on Thursday. This is possibly due to Huang’s warning that the AI build out could slow down due to memory costs, which could put pressure on these companies to keep their prices in check in future. Software stocks roar back to life Memory makers were sidelined by software stocks. Salesforce and Crowdstrike surged independently of Nvidia’s earnings. Salesforce was higher by more than 20%, after it announced an upgrade to its revenue and profit forecasts for this year. However, the main trigger for its best-ever daily performance was the announcement of a tie-up with Anthropic’s Claude, creating a ‘Claudeforce’ plugin to boost its software capabilities. AI trade not just about Nvidia This has put to bed fears that AI will replace the world’s largest legacy software firms. In Q1 software giants sold off sharply, however, since April they have surged. The ishares Software ETF is up 50% and is making new YTD highs. This suggests that the AI trade is no longer just about Nvidia. Software firms are teaming up with Anthropic and OpenAI to co-create products that use AI models. This is a powerful driver of growth for the software giants. Enterprise software stocks have something the AI model makers don’t: customers. Anyone who thought that these companies were dead or would be slashing jobs in the future, need not have worried. Today’s price action shows that they are more alive than ever, and they are likely to be creating jobs in the future. Focus shifts to Warsh Now that the Tech trade is on a more solid footing, the focus can shift to Jackson Hole, where global central bankers have gathered for the Federal Reserve's annual conference. The theme of this year’s conference is the effects of technical innovation on global payments systems and on economic policy making. However, from a market perspective, the focus is on Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s speech, which will take place at 1500 BST. The question for investors is whether this speech will be worth waiting for ahead of a UK bank holiday weekend? In the past, Fed governors have used this address to signpost the future direction of monetary policy. Due to this, it has always been a market-moving event, directly impacting the price of bonds, the dollar and gold. What will Warsh say if he doesn’t give forward guidance? However, there is virtually no chance that Warsh will follow in his predecessors’ footsteps, since he has said on multiple occasions that he does not think forward guidance is useful outside of economic crises. So what will he say if he doesn’t offer forward guidance? Warsh to focus on changes at the Fed This speech could focus on bigger issues, such as how he plans to run the world’s most important central bank, and also what changes he will make and when. While not offering direct guidance on the future of interest rates, everything he says will be scrutinised by investors, and changes that he plans to make could still trigger market volatility. Warsh has set up 5 task forces to consider a new framework for how the Fed operates. He is expected to use today’s address to tell financial markets about: Changes to the Fed’s communications strategy Balance Sheet policy in the wake of recent bond market turbulence How the Fed will improve the quality of US economic data that it collects How gains in AI will change how the Fed looks at and assesses the US economy Update the market on how the Fed will react to the drivers of inflation as the US and global economy evolve Interest rates and inflation in focus There is speculation that Warsh, who is concerned about inflation being above target but has voted for US interest rates to remain on pause, could dismiss the view that raising interest rates will quell inflation. Primarily this is because the main drivers of inflation are international and not domestic. The inflation outlook is also impacted by the AI build out and rapidly rising costs in this space. This is also something the Fed may not want to hold back with increasing rates. Are hawkish and dovish relevant in the era of Warsh? It is hard to predict what Warsh will say and what tone he will strike. If he doesn’t give forward guidance then can anything he says be classified in the old way of ‘dovish’ and ‘hawkish’. A patient tone with rising inflation could boost dollar alternative assets like gold and crypto, while weighing on the dollar, and ironically pushing up bond yields, as investors express concern about rising inflation. The backdrop to this meeting is fairly benign. US stock markets are higher by approximately 12% this year, with the Nasdaq up 6% in the past month. Although inflation is rising and job growth is falling, the inflation picture is impacted by global events, and the jobs data is more nuanced, with recent jobless claims falling, and remaining at low levels. Bond yields have stabilised after recent ructions, and the 10-year Treasury yield is down by 6bps in the past month. The dollar is lower by 2% on a broad basis in the past month, but has stabilised this week, while the gold price has had one of its best-ever months and is higher by 14%. If Warsh gets his way, then his speech will not be market-moving. As we said earlier this week, Nvidia is more important than the Fed at this stage of the AI revolution. Kevin Warsh should be happy about that. Chart 1: Salesforce’s record-breaking day Source: XTB

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Markets freeze before Jackson Hole. Bitcoin back below 80K USD

Indices and Companies Futures on main US indices have slowed significantly and are trading flat ( US100 : -0.05%; US500 : +0.02%) following a fade in volatility generated by Nvidia's earnings (+8.5% yesterday). Stagnation dominates the session for now, with investors holding their breath ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, where all attention will focus on comments from Kevin Warsh. Sentiment in Asia is mixed and trading volumes are muted as investors await Warsh's speech today. South Korea performed worst in the region (KOSPI: -1.3%) due to waning tech enthusiasm following Nvidia's results (SK Hynix: -1.5%, Samsung: -2.5%). Japan outperformed the region (Nikkei 225: +0.6%), while Chinese markets (Hang Seng and HSCEI: +0.4%) and Australia (S&P/ASX: +0.5%) are also trading slightly in the green. 🌍 Economy and Geopolitics Tokyo CPI inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 1.8% YoY in August (previous and consensus: 1.7%), while the core-core index (excluding fresh food and energy) rose to 2.0%. The data reflects slowing food price growth, a broader pass-through of energy costs creating pressure across the economy, and yen weakness. The unemployment rate also fell (from 2.5% to 2.4%). Markets slightly raised expectations for a BOJ interest rate hike in September, with the data supporting recent hawkish comments from BOJ officials. A Reuters poll revealed that 27 out of 31 surveyed economists expect a second consecutive rate hike in New Zealand in September (to 2.75%). The commander of United States Central Command reported that recognized international transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared of Iranian naval mines. 💱 Currencies and Commodities On FX, a similar decline in volatility is visible, with movements across most G10 currency pairs not exceeding 0.1%. The exception is the New Zealand dollar ( NZDUSD : +0.2%), supported by hawkish expectations among economists. The yen is losing ground despite higher-than-expected inflation ( USDJPY : +0.12%). The Dollar Index is adding a modest 0.05%. EURUSD is trading flat at 1.1644. Precious metals are giving back most of yesterday's gains. Gold is down 0.5% to $4,580 per ounce, and silver is losing 0.6% to $68.80 per ounce. Brent crude futures are pulling back by a modest 0.5% to $88.10 per barrel, while natural gas continues its gains both in Europe ( NATGAS.EU : +0.7%) and on NYMEX ( NATGAS : +0.3%). 🪙 Crypto Crypto markets are experiencing moderate profit-taking ahead of Jackson Hole. Bitcoin is down 0.45%, falling back below $80,000 ($79,930). Ethereum is losing 0.4% to $2,497.

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Energies

August 28, 2026

Gasoline Hovers Near 5-Week High

US gasoline futures traded around $3.38 per gallon, near a five-week high, as supply concerns intensified amid rising geopolitical risks. US-Iran diplomatic efforts remained stalled after Washington ruled out reviving the terms of a June agreement and said it was not currently negotiating with Tehran. The US has instead intensified pressure through new sanctions earlier this week, which Iran condemned as hostile and ineffective. Meanwhile, Black Sea shipments faced heightened risks as Russia considers intensifying military pressure on Ukraine after determining that peace negotiations have reached a dead end, while strikes on Russian refineries pushed refinery runs toward multi-year lows. In the US, EIA data showed gasoline inventories fell by 2.536 million barrels in the week ending August 21, well above expectations, leaving stocks 6% below the five-year average and underscoring continued tightness in the fuel market.

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Energies

August 28, 2026

Heating Oil Holds Gains

US heating oil futures traded around $4.26 per gallon, holding most of their gains from the previous session as supply concerns intensified amid rising geopolitical risks. US-Iran diplomatic efforts remained stalled after Washington ruled out reviving the terms of a June agreement and said it was not currently negotiating with Tehran. The US has instead intensified pressure through new sanctions earlier this week, which Iran condemned as hostile and ineffective. Meanwhile, Black Sea shipments faced heightened risks as Russia considers intensifying military pressure on Ukraine after determining that peace negotiations have reached a dead end. At the same time, strikes on Russian refineries have disrupted refining capacity, adding to regional fuel supply concerns. In the US, EIA data showed distillate stockpiles fell by a larger-than-expected 2.2 million barrels last week, compared to expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel decline, pointing to tight inventories.

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Energies

August 28, 2026

European Gas Rises on Middle East Uncertainty

European natural gas prices rose to €68.6/MWh on Friday, extending gains from the previous session and moving back toward their highest level since January 2023, as supply risks remain amid uncertainty over a Middle East peace deal. Prices jumped on Thursday after reports that President Trump was not interested in returning to the terms of a June deal with Iran. This reversed losses from earlier this week, which were driven by progress in talks between Pakistan and Iran to end the conflict and an agreement between Tehran and Oman on control and revenues tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The near-closure of the Strait has continued to disrupt LNG supplies from Qatar, while extreme summer heat-driven cooling demand diverted supplies from storage. These have left Europe scrambling to secure supplies, heightening fears that the region could enter the winter heating season with insufficient reserves. For the week, European gas prices climbed more than 3%, the third straight weekly gain.

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Soybean Futures Extend Rally

Soybean futures climbed further above $12.6 per bushel, extending their rally to the highest level since December 2023 as concerns over crop conditions and strong Chinese demand continued to support prices. US exporters have reported a series of soybean sales to China for the 2026/27 marketing year, including a fresh 333,000 metric ton purchase announced on August 26. The latest deal adds to several large sales earlier this month, with USDA reporting purchases of 488,000 tons on August 3, 238,000 tons on August 7, and another 244,000 tons on August 12. Meanwhile, extreme heat and heavy rainfall across major Chinese growing regions are threatening soybean quality and yields, potentially increasing the country’s reliance on imports. US crop concerns also supported prices after the USDA’s good-to-excellent soybean rating fell to 60% from 61% a week earlier. Markets now await a potential late-September meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi that could shape agricultural trade.

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Energies

August 28, 2026

US Natgas Prices Hold at 5-Week High

US natural gas prices held around $2.91/MMBtu, the highest level in five weeks, supported by a smaller-than-usual storage injection and forecasts for continued warm weather. EIA data showed that energy firms added 15 Bcf of gas to storage for the week ended August 21, below the 20 Bcf forecast and the 33 Bcf five-year average for the period. Gas prices also gained amid forecasts of record-high temperatures across the Southwest through this weekend, while the Commodity Weather Group said on Thursday that above-average temperatures are expected across nearly the entire US from September 1-10, keeping cooling demand elevated. However, strong domestic production is capping further price gains, with output in the Lower 48 states averaging a record 111.4 bcfd so far in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July. Meanwhile, average gas flows to the nine major LNG export facilities fell slightly to 17.1 bcfd from 17.2 bcfd in July, although LNG demand is showing signs of recovery.

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Markets

August 28, 2026

Corn Holds Near 3-Year High

Corn futures held above $5.1 per bushel, staying near their highest level since July 2023 as mounting crop concerns and weather risks supported prices. Extreme heat and heavy rainfall have hit major Chinese corn-growing regions, threatening yields and quality. China imported 1.36 million tons of corn from January–July, up 61.3% year-on-year, which could increase import demand if weather damage worsens. Meanwhile, concerns over the US crop are adding further support, with the USDA’s latest report showing the share of corn rated good-to-excellent falling three percentage points to 57% for the week ended August 23. Strong export demand is also underpinning prices, with cumulative shipments up 26% from a year earlier despite a recent easing in weekly shipments to 1.3 million tones. USDA reported a recent sale of 286,097 tons of US corn to Mexico, including 29,808 tons for 2026/27 delivery and 256,289 tons for 2027/28.

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Energies

August 28, 2026

Coal Surges to 2-Month High

Coal prices climbed toward $140 per ton in late August, reaching a two-month high as robust global energy demand coincided with persistent concerns over supply. Coal remains the world’s largest source of power generation, producing nearly 11,000 TWh in 2026, while surging electricity demand is slowing efforts to displace the fuel with renewable energy. The IEA also expects coal to remain the largest single source of power generation through 2030, with no individual alternative coming close to replacing it. The prolonged Middle East conflict, which tightened global LNG supplies and drove energy prices higher, further strengthened the outlook for coal demand. Meanwhile, as many as 45 coal-fired power plants in India are operating with critically low coal stocks as electricity demand rises amid a strong El Niño, while supply has been disrupted by monsoon rains.

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Energies

August 28, 2026

Brent Slips as Traders Monitor Hormuz Flows

Brent crude slipped toward $88 per barrel on Friday, paring gains from the previous session as traders continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels amid increased flows through Hormuz. Total crude exports from the region have reportedly risen to 15-16 million barrels per day, still around 7-8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels but well above a trough of 5-6 million barrels in March. Iran and Oman also reached a revenue-sharing agreement over the strategic waterway, although Tehran stressed that the arrangement does not guarantee an immediate reopening of the strait. Meanwhile, the Trump administration told mediators that it has no interest in returning to the terms of a preliminary deal reached with Iran in June that later collapsed.

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Oil: Hormuz supply recovery eases risk premium – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY notes that improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz are easing Oil supply fears and supporting a lower Brent price profile. Kuwait and Qatar have restored crude shipments to about 70% of pre-war levels, lifting total Hormuz flows. As more Gulf barrels reach the market, the disruption premium in Oil prices continues to compress despite ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions. Brent pressured by supply normalization "Improving Hormuz flows are providing further reassurance on inflation. Kuwaiti and Qatari crude shipments have reportedly recovered to around 70% of pre-conflict levels, while broader traffic through the strait is also rising. Brent is falling again as supply fears ease, removing some of the energy-driven pressure on the global disinflation outlook." "Brent crude is holding near $87/bbl, well below its late-April peak above $120, as rising oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz ease fears of a prolonged supply shock. Kuwait and Qatar have restored shipments to around 70% of pre-war levels, while total flows through the strait have climbed to roughly 7mn to 8mn barrels a day from about 4mn in mid-July." "With more Gulf barrels reaching the market, the supply disruption premium in oil has continued to compress, even though Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked over control of the strait."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Japanese Yen: Himino signals hawkish shift – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the Japanese Yen reaction to Deputy Governor Himino’s speech was limited, even as his comments aligned with market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. The BoJ is seen shifting toward a faster pace of tightening, with FX developments increasingly central to its inflation outlook, while Jackson Hole and Naoki Tamura’s participation frame the near-term policy narrative. BoJ hike expectations stay elevated "The Fed on hold on 16th September looks likely to then be followed by a hike by the BoJ. Today, Deputy Governor Himino gave a key speech and with pricing for a rate hike at over 80% it was important that Himino’s comments were seen to endorse that. His comments were generally consistent with a policy board that appears to be shifting its strategy and considering a faster pace of rate hikes." "The yen weakened back in response to his speech suggesting some disappointment that Himino was not more explicit but while he did not explicitly give a signal of a hike next month, his general tone was certainly on the hawkish side. Himino gave a speech and then later a press conference and on both occasions stated that the BoJ needed to “pay more attention to upside inflation risks than before”. That to us is the closest you will get to guidance that the pace of rate hikes could be increased." "Himino also confirmed that the BoJ did not need to have the full data on assessing the impact of past rate hikes before moving again. The BoJ has also upped the emphasis on the importance of FX to the inflation outlook which shows alignment with the MoF in not wanting the yen to continue weakening." "With nearly all the rate hike pricing still intact after the meeting we would say the job has been done by the BoJ in giving a clear signal of intent. Jackson Hole will now come into focus, and Naoki Tamura will attend Jackson Hole instead of Governor Ueda. He is an interesting choice to attend given he is a vocal proponent of a faster pace of monetary tightening having stated in June that his view was a rate hike “at intervals of a few months” to get the policy rate to the neutral rate around 2.00% more quickly." "There is no top tier economic data today so we would expect a subdued day for the markets ahead of the Warsh speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow at 15:00 BST."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA hold view caps near-term upside against US Dollar – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the only G10 currency gaining this week as hotter July inflation and strong household spending fuel hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations. ING’s macro team still favours a prolonged RBA hold, expecting benign inflation and a steady Fed to reduce urgency, with AUD/USD targeted at 0.730 by year-end but near-term gains limited as rate pricing is unwound. Hot data versus prolonged RBA hold "The Aussie dollar is the only G10 currency gaining ground this week amid a broad USD rebound. Hotter-than-expected inflation for July (3.5% headline, 3.6% trimmed mean) has caused a rapid rebuilding of hawkish expectations, with markets now pricing in a 28bp by year-end. That’s around a 15bp jump since the start of the week." "This morning, Australia reported very strong household spending data for July (7% YoY), further helping the case for more tightening. However, our macro team is still leaning towards a prolonged hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but we admit the hawkish risks have increased." "House prices are declining and unemployment has edged higher, trends that should become clearer in the 2Q GDP data. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely wait for another set of quarterly numbers before concluding that the pickup in inflation is anything more than a one-off." "Ultimately, we expect the inflation trajectory to prove benign enough to avert another hike, with our call for a Fed on a prolonged hold also diminishing any sense of urgency in Australia." "Markets are pricing in 12bp for the 29 September meeting, and we expect that pricing to be unwound, limiting AUD gains for now. Our view on AUD/USD remains upbeat into year-end with a 0.730 target, but that’s relying on our dovish Fed call, which should have a net-positive impact on the pair even if a dovish repricing in the AUD curve happens."

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Tin Holds Near 2-Month High

Tin futures in the UK were above $54,800 per tonne, holding most of the recent rally that topped at the two-month high of $56,780 amid the outlook of strong demand. Tin demand remained underpinned to the strong outlook on AI infrastructure due to the metal's utility in data centers. Soaring order growth for Nvidia, per their latest results, and memory producers Samsung and SK Hynix, supported the outlook for continued development of AI infrastructure. The metal's soldering capabilities, which are useful in precision soldering in AI infrastructure, prompted industry players to signal that tin demand in AI servers should triple by 2030. Meanwhile, supply from major producer Indonesia remained low as Jakarta pulled back on the issuance of export licenses. On top of that, Jakarta further tightened mining permits and seized 500 tonnes of metal from mines without licences.

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Forex Trading

August 27, 2026

Trade of The Day – GBP/USD

Facts: GBPAUD is trading below the 100-period moving average from H1 interval The pair broke below the support at 1.3600 The pair invalidated 1:1 structure Recommendation: Trade: Short position on GBPUSD at market price Target: 1.3525, 1.3480 Stop: 1.3630 Opinion: GBPUSD has been trading in an upward trend recently. However the pair may be experiencing a trend reversal. Looking at the pair at the H1 interval, one can see that the price broke below the lower limit of the 1:1 structure which, according to the Overbalance strategy, may herald a resumption of a downward trend. As long as the price sits below the 1.3600, the further downward move is the base case scenario. In addition the price sits below the 100-period moving average from the H1 interval. Taking this into account, continuation of the downward move looks to be the base case scenario for now. We recommend going short GBPUSD at market price with two targets: 1.3525 and 1.3480. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 1.3630. Source: xStation5

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Energies

August 27, 2026

WTI Price – Bears have the upper hand below $82.10-$82.15 confluence hurdle

WTI drifts lower on Thursday amid fresh optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play, limiting the downside for the commodity. The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciating move. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some selling following the overnight bounce from the $79.30-$79.25 region, or an over two-week low, though the downside remains cushioned. The commodity trades just above the $81.00 mark during the first half of the European session on Thursday, down less than 0.50% for the day. The optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz turns out to be a key factor exerting some pressure on crude oil prices. However, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi warned on Tuesday that the strategic waterway will not fully reopen until the US fulfils its commitments under an interim peace deal signed in June. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the black liquid. The overnight bounce struggled to find acceptance above the $82.10-$82.15 confluence – comprising the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recovery from the monthly low. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative with the line under its signal and both below zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 40 suggests subdued momentum. The broader technical setup, in turn, hints that rallies could stay capped beneath the clustered resistance overhead despite the recent recovery from oversold territory. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 50.0% retracement at $80.47, followed by the 61.8% level at $78.83 if selling pressure resumes. Bulls, on the other hand, need to wait for sustained strength above the $82.10-$82.15 confluence resistance before placing fresh bets and positioning for any further gains. The next relevant hurdle is seen at the 23.6% retracement at $84.13 and the structural anchor near $87.40, levels that would need to be cleared to negate the current bearish tone. WTI 4-hour chart

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Polish Zloty: Import pass-through risks challenge cuts – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Euro strength is amplifying import price pass-through risks for Poland, with EUR/PLN gains feeding into higher import prices. The Monetary Policy Council’s guidance of unchanged rates contrasts with market pricing for a return above 4%. Yu sees Poland as facing the clearest hawkish risk in Central and Eastern Europe, making expectations for rate cuts increasingly vulnerable. Polish import prices pressure NBP stance "The benign outlook may lead to unintended consequences. A stronger euro and reflation are normally healthy, but in the near term, risks exacerbate some of the inflation risk arising from supply shocks. Due to supply chain linkages, pass-through remains very strong across Europe, and recent moves in the euro lead to some additional hawkish risk in policy pricing." "For example, Poland has not enjoyed the “re-rating shock” in Hungary, which generated policy-neutral inflows. The latest data show that between March and May, import prices have increased materially even without significant upward moves in EUR/PLN. The risks of a further gain through Q3 are stronger, as EUR/PLN has made significant gains." "The current policy setup faces challenges. The Monetary Policy Council envisages no change in interest rates for the rest of the year, but forward pricing suggests rates need to move back above 4%. Much will hinge on the ECB." "It is manageable for the NBP to allow for June’s precautionary move, but the risk of a more sustained cycle will require a catch-up. Meanwhile, fiscal impulse remains strong, which can amplify domestic demand, a dynamic that is not helpful in a rising import price environment. At the very least, cuts need to be taken off the agenda entirely." "Position for greater NBP and Riksbank vigilance. Take Polish cuts off the table, favor earlier Riksbank tightening, and treat further upside in EUR/PLN and EUR(SEK as increasingly self-limiting."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

US Dollar: Warsh speech keeps markets cautious – ING

ING strategist Francesco Pesole sees recent United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as consistent with disinflation but too gradual to force Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes this year. Pesole still expects the Fed to hold rates on 16 September and anticipate a weaker Dollar, but warns that hawkish market pricing and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could lift hike odds and support DXY near 99.0. Fed hold view faces market pressure "Data releases in the US yesterday were a mixed bag, offering some support to the dollar but failing to solve the market's conundrum about the September FOMC (pricing now 9bp)." "Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, printed in line with expectations at 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, suggesting disinflation remains on track but at a frustratingly gradual pace. Headline PCE came in slightly firmer at 0.2% MoM and 3.7% YoY, prompting a small hawkish repricing in the USD curve." "The growth side of the report was softer. Real personal spending was unchanged in July despite higher real disposable income, with households opting to save rather than spend. Real household disposable income has effectively flatlined for more than a year." "Our concern is that, if markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a hike by decision day, the likelihood of a hike would increase, as the Committee may be reluctant to risk triggering bond market volatility." "Tomorrow’s speech at Jackson Hole by Kevin Warsh remains a potentially pivotal event for FX, and markets may be reluctant to build excessive USD shorts today. DXY may find support above 99.0 into the speech despite some upbeat risk sentiment after strong Nvidia results." "Overall, we remain reasonably confident in our call for the Fed to hold on 16 September and, by extension, in a weaker dollar. That said, the next three weeks may need to bring a more convincing combination of data and Fedspeak before markets move closer to a hold outcome."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Brazilian Real: Rate cuts may support BRL against US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists observe that the Brazilian Real (BRL) largely ignored softer inflation data, which still supports a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) rate cut in September followed by a pause into elections. A broader easing cycle could attract bond inflows and support the BRL, with USD/BRL expected to remain in a narrow range and key support around 5.05/5.04 highlighted. Soft inflation supports easing cycle "In Latam, the BRL largely ignored friendly inflation data which keeps the BCB on track to lower rates in September. We think a pause then follows into the election. Mid-August IPCA inflation decelerated to 4.24% from 4.52% in mid-July." "Our economist points out that disinflation was broad-based except for household goods and communication. The decrease -0.4% mom was the largest in four years and could be indicative of weakening demand alongside food price normalization." "The downside surprise should cement a cut by the BCB next month and opens perspectives for a longer easing cycle which would be a fillip for bond portfolio inflows and the BRL. The 10y BRLGB yield has come down to 14.50% from 14.80% earlier this month. Medium-term inflation expectations are likely to remain closely tied to election outcomes." "The BRL could also draw support from the country’s foreign trade and agri export position if El Niño causes disruption to global harvests" "Banxico raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.5% from 1.1% and moved back the timeline for inflation to reach the 3% inflation target to 4Q27 from 2Q27 in its quarterly report yesterday." "For USD/BRL, the narrow range may prevail in the short term as investors choose to carry light exposure until after the presidential vote; the low achieved earlier this month around 5.05/5.04 is key support."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Mexican Peso: Carry-driven strength extends against US Dollar – Rabobank

Rabobank's Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz highlight that USD/MXN has broken below 17 for the first time since May 2024, prompting a forecast revision toward 16.5 in coming weeks. They see strong carry demand and subdued volatility keeping MXN supported, while a mild retracement is projected for next year, with the pair staying within recent ranges and not breaking below 16.25. Technical break reinforces MXN strength "We expect strong demand for carry to remain supportive MXN and the recent break down through 17 opens up a move to 16.5 in the near term. We do have a mild retracement baked in for next year but well within recent ranges." "USD/MXN price action confirmed a close below the 17 handle (a close below followed by a subsequent lower close) which we have been monitoring closely as that opened up thin air down to mild support at 16.45/49 before strong support at 16.25. That move lower triggered warning signals in our proprietary reversal indicator and we did see bullish divergence form." "In light of this we are targeting USD/MXN hitting 16.5 in the coming weeks, and while we cannot rule out an extension below there, we do not expect the pair to break below 16.25." "On the flipside, if volatility spikes, we’ll be back at price congestion in the mid-17s in the blink of an eye with a move back above 18 more than feasible in short order." "We have revised our forecast for USD/MXN lower to reflect the confirmed close below critical support at the 17 handle and our view that the outlook for FX volatility has structurally shifted within the current regime and that MXN’s reaction function to volatility has also been reduced."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Turkish Lira: Inflation expectations outpace CBRT forecasts – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose revisits Turkish inflation dynamics, noting seasonally-adjusted price momentum above 2% m/m and warning that disinflation is unlikely. Market participants have raised year-end Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations to 29.5% y/y, above Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's (CBRT) 28% forecast. Ghose argues CBRT repeatedly chases private forecasts, undermining credibility, while persistent high monthly inflation keeps the Turkish Lira (TRY) under pressure after breaking 48.10 against the US Dollar (USD). CBT credibility and lira pressure "Turkey’s seasonally-adjusted inflation momentum was still running faster than 2%m/m, which makes disinflation a highly unlikely outcome in the medium-term. The central bank’s (CBRT’s) latest market participants survey now adds another uncomfortable detail: market participants have lifted their year-end inflation forecast further to 29.5%y/y." "The market has not moved down towards CBRT’s forecast – CBRT has moved towards the market. This is the usual pattern every year: CBRT begins with a good-looking year-end forecast, then progressively revises it higher as the horizon approaches and the original number becomes unbelievable." "This matters for credibility. A central bank forecast is supposed to help anchor expectations, not merely capitulate with a lag." "If private forecasters repeatedly move first, and CBRT only catches up at scheduled Inflation Report rounds, then the market will eventually treat inflation reports and mid-term plans as presentation documents rather than genuine forecasting tools." "Meanwhile, the underlying data still offer no comfort: CBRT’s own seasonally-adjusted July estimate showed headline CPI rising by 2.3%m/ m, with services up by 2.9%m/m. Such a rate of fresh price increase remains incompatible with medium-term targets. The lira has recently broken through the 48.10 level against the dollar and will continue to be under pressure."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Norwegian Krone: Valuation headwinds temper NOK against Euro – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that stronger Oil prices have improved Norway’s terms of trade, but EUR/NOK gains have pushed up the I-44 import price index. While Norges Bank can focus on domestic factors thanks to NOK’s year-to-date performance, Yu warns that high investor holdings and a weaker valuation case make short EUR/NOK trades unattractive, with risks tied to wages and inflation expectations. Import pass-through and positioning weigh on NOK "The surge in oil prices this year generated a significant terms-of-trade improvement for Norway. The gains are not as strong as the 2022 surge, which means there isn’t a tailwind from central bank sales to generate further NOK weakness. Like other EUR crosses, EUR/NOK also strengthened materially during Q2, which significantly pushed up the I-44 import price index." "There are already signs that Norwegian import prices are following Sweden’s path, where the basket is diverging more from EUR/NOK itself, raising pass-through risk." "Despite the risks, the strength of NOK performance year-to-date is a robust buffer against inflation figures, allowing Norges Bank to remain fully focused on domestic factors. The energy-dominant nature of current supply shocks means the currency’s reaction function to external factors differs markedly from peers'. Nonetheless, vigilance is necessary, as higher import prices also risk pushing up inflation expectations and generating second-round effects that Norges Bank must respond to." "Risk reward is poor to be short EUR/NOK. Compared to the likes of PLN and SEK, the valuation case for NOK is far weaker. We also highlight that our data point to very high-level holdings of NOK relative to G10 peers, which is a perennial headwind against further performance." "Unlike PLN and SEK, NOK will likely respond far more strongly to domestic triggers, especially wages. Transmission from import costs to labor takes longer, but history shows Norges Bank will react proactively to any such risks."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA hike repricing supports gains – DBS

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes AUD/USD has risen 2.2% in August after a 1.5% gain in July, leaving the Australian Dollar near year-to-date highs and the best-performing G10 currency in 2026. The move is driven by swift repricing of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike in November following hawkish minutes and upside surprises in July CPI. Australian Dollar holds near yearly highs "AUD/USD appreciated by 2.2% this month, as of August 26, adding to July’s 1.5% gain. At 0.7178, the currency is stronger than the 0.70 level seen at the hawkish June 17 FOMC meeting. Among the G10 currencies, the Oz remains 2026’s best performing currency (+7.6% YTD) and has the highest policy rate." "The recent repricing of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in November has been swift, triggered by Tuesday’s hawkish August minutes amid sticky inflation. The board debated whether “pre-emptive” tightening might be necessary due to upside risks to their inflation forecasts." "July’s CPI data crystallized those risks with headline inflation coming in at 3.5% YoY, above market expectations of 3.3%, while trimmed mean inflation remained unchanged at 3.6% rather than declining to 3.5%." "It remains to be seen if AUD/USD can break above the 0.6833 to 0.7278 range set after Operation Epic Fury. To do so¸ AUD would also need two external factors. First, the currency recovery across most of Asia, its largest export destination, must extend, especially for the CNY, KRW, and JPY." "Second, USD should remain weak amid a shifting backdrop in which aggressive Fed hike expectations have been overtaken by policy credibility concerns following the US Treasury's bond buybacks aimed at stabilizing long-dated bond yields." "Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow will be important for the USD; the market is not ruling out a hike after the November 3 US midterm elections."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Equities: Tech earnings lift futures after quiet session – Deutsche Bank

The Deutsche Bank strategists describe a modestly positive shift in equity sentiment following Nvidia’s earnings. After a quiet cash session for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Nvidia’s revenue beat and bullish AI outlook pushed its shares up 4.7% after-hours, lifting S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures. Salesforce and CrowdStrike results further supported global tech-linked equities. Nvidia-led rebound in equity futures "After a mixed session yesterday, the market mood has turned more positive again overnight following Nvidia’s earnings last night. The chipmaker’s results delivered a moderate revenue beat, with revenue guidance for the current quarter also coming slightly ahead of expectations ($108bn vs $105.2bn est.)." "Crucially, this was accompanied by a bullish medium-term outlook from the company’s management on the conference call, who expected revenue growth of around 70% in the next fiscal year that starts in January 2027. So this signaled greater optimism that current runaway growth in AI demand would continue into next year." "Nvidia’s shares were up by +4.7% by the end of after-hours trading, after a -1.59% decline in yesterday’s regular session, helping futures on the S&P 500 (+0.48%) and Nasdaq (+0.83%) to decent gains overnight. The tech mood has also been helped by encouraging results from Salesforce, which released a slightly stronger-than-expected sales outlook and a deepening of its partnership with Anthropic, as well as CrowdStrike, whose shares jumped by nearly +10% after-hours." "The positive tech sentiment has supported gains in Asia this morning, with the Kospi (+1.49%) leading the way, while the CSI 300 (+0.50%), Shanghai Composite (+0.60%) and Nikkei (+0.18%) are also all in the green, although the Hang Seng (-0.46%) is drifting lower."

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Banks

August 27, 2026

Euro: Lower against US Dollar after PCE surprise – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation surprise triggered a hawkish market reaction, pushing US rates higher and weighing on EUR/USD. The pair dropped to 1.1650 as the US Dollar (USD) found support from stronger data. Markets also increased pricing for a potential September Fed rate hike, reinforcing downside pressure on EUR/USD. Dollar strength weighs on Euro "In the US, headline PCE inflation came in slightly above expectations at 3.7% y/y in July, unchanged from the previous month and above consensus at 3.6%. On a monthly basis, headline PCE rose 0.2% m/m versus expectations of 0.1%. Core PCE was in line with expectations at 3.3% y/y and 0.2% m/m." "Markets reacted hawkishly to the print, with rates moving higher across both the short and long ends of the curve, while EUR/USD moved lower. Market pricing of a September Fed rate hike increased after the release." "The USD found support in somewhat stronger-than-expected PCE inflation reading, with EUR/USD dropping to 1.1650." "In the US, Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference will take place. This year's topic is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy". The main market mover during the conference is Fed chairman Warsh's speech on Friday. Markets will look for any hints about monetary policy in September. We expect Warsh to continue his pattern of providing little to no forward guidance." "In the euro area, the minutes from the ECB's July meeting will be published today at 13:30 CET. They will reveal discussions from the meeting where the ECB held policy rates steady. We expect the minutes to show a bias for a rate hike in September, which is also fully priced in by markets. There will likely be limited signals beyond September, so it is not expected to be a market mover."

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Chart of The Day – Why is wheat gaining so strongly?

Wheat prices are currently driven by various overlapping geopolitical risks and rapidly deteriorating global harvest prospects. Recent gains have clearly accelerated, and US wheat contract quotes have reached the 751.1 USD level, making it one of the absolute commodity market leaders recently. How have wheat prices changed recently? Wheat prices are in an uptrend. In the last session, they rose by 0.46%, weekly by 7.94%, and monthly by 13.61%. Since the beginning of the year, the increase has been 48.40%, while compared to the same period last year, the price is 42.08% higher. In terms of monthly changes in the agricultural commodity market, wheat is second only to sugar. Looking more broadly, silver and platinum are also gaining more strongly. Wheat is extremely overbought looking at the 2-year average and the RSI indicator. Source: XTB Main drivers of wheat price growth Escalation in the Black Sea region: Fears of paralysis of export routes and destruction of port infrastructure in Ukraine have caused investor panic. On the Chicago (CBOT) and Kansas City (KC) exchanges, prices rose so sharply that they hit daily growth limits (45 cents), which forced the exchanges to extend the limits for subsequent sessions up to 70 cents. Putin's threats: Yesterday, information appeared about the planned escalation in Ukraine, which could disrupt exports and harvests. Ukraine is an important exporter of agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat, or sunflower oil. Quality problem in Europe: Heavy rains in France and Germany during the harvest have drastically reduced grain quality (a drop in EU soft wheat exports to just 2.38 million tons since July). Global importers have been forced to shift demand to North America. Weather pressure in the USA and Canada: Heat waves and droughts in key states (e.g., North Dakota) have damaged spring wheat crops, lowering the percentage of crops in 'good to excellent' condition and threatening a shortage of high-protein grain. Rising freight and inventories: Tensions on other routes (e.g., crisis in the Strait of Hormuz) are driving up transport insurance costs, while global ending stocks are shrinking to their lowest levels in years. Technical analysis and extreme overbought Although the moving average setup (price is 15.69% above SMA50) and the MACD indicator remain strongly bullish, the market is sending overheating signals. The RSI indicator has reached an extreme level of 83, which in the past has almost always heralded a correction. Historical deviation Z-score indicators also signal increasing overvaluation – the 5-year Z5Y indicator has risen from -0.71 (half a year ago) to +0.57 now, completely erasing the previous price discount. Real overvaluation is visible, however, on lower averages like the 3-month average, or above all the 2-year average, where we already have 4 standard deviations from the average. Relative to the 2-year average, wheat was this strongly deviated in 2022. Source: XTB Market scenarios Bullish scenario: A sustained break of the 770–780 USD resistance will occur in the event of further attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure and official cuts to stock forecasts in subsequent USDA (WASDE) reports. Bearish scenario: Profit-taking and a drop to local supports will materialize if tensions in the east de-escalate and harvest forecasts in the southern hemisphere (Australia, Argentina) improve significantly. Wheat prices are experiencing powerful gains, which are linked to the possible escalation of the war in Ukraine. Additionally, one should remember the rising costs associated with fertilizers and oil prices. El Nino and dry weather in the United States also have a significant impact on prices. The overlap of these factors indicates the possibility of attempting to test at least 800 cents per bushel at the 38.2 retracement of the downtrend wave started in May 2022. On the other hand, it is worth noting that the divergence with oil currently indicates wheat overvaluation, so any de-escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine could erase the recent wheat premium and direct it to the vicinity of 680 cents, and subsequently 630 cents per bushel.

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Earnings

August 27, 2026

Nvidia wows with results again

Stocks and Companies American giant Nvidia published excellent results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, exceeding analyst forecasts in terms of revenue and earnings per share. In the initial post-session reaction, the stock fell by about 3%, but this was followed by a quick rebound of over 5% in overnight trading, mainly thanks to excellent forecasts for the next year. CFO Colette Kress announced that the company expects revenue growth in fiscal year 2028 of approximately 70%, which significantly exceeded the market consensus of 44%. CEO Jensen Huang revealed that actual demand is growing at a rate close to 100%, and the only limitation for the company remains supply bottlenecks in the memory area, which may last until 2028. Additionally, the company finalized the acquisition of the Hugging Face platform for $12.9 billion USD. Chinese startup Z.ai recorded an 8% increase in quotes after presenting a new artificial intelligence model that operates exclusively on Chinese-made integrated circuits. This step is highly significant in the context of the ongoing technological rivalry with the US and China's pursuit of hardware independence. Clothing giant Shein plans to debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange, valuing its Initial Public Offering (IPO) at $26.5 billion USD. As of 07:10 AM CET, S&P 500 futures are at 7716, gaining 0.08% (and gaining 0.37% for the whole week), while Nasdaq 100 futures are at 29,475, gaining 0.16% (and gaining 0.35% for the whole week), and Nvidia is at 209.77, losing 1.52% (and losing 2.26% for the whole week). The contract for the German DAX index (DE40) is gaining 0.2% before the open, while the Eurostoxx 50 (EU50) contract is rising by as much as 0.46%. 📊 Macroeconomics The profit growth of China's industrial sector sharply slowed down in July to 11.2% year-on-year, which is the lowest reading this year. Cumulatively, profit growth for the first seven months of the year amounted to 17.6% compared to 18.7% recorded in the first half of the year. This slowdown raises questions about whether the previous recovery driven by global demand for artificial intelligence hardware is beginning to lose momentum, which could negatively impact demand for cyclical commodities. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gave a hawkish speech, calling for timely interest rate hikes to stabilize inflation around the 2% target. He pointed to the weak yen and rising global demand for AI technologies as the main pro-inflationary factors, which directly translate into higher export prices for Japanese chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. The Bank of Korea decided to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, which is the second consecutive increase and the highest rate level since January 2025. Australian household spending rose by 1.1% month-on-month in July, almost tripling economists' forecasts of 0.4%. Year-on-year, this growth accelerated to 7.0% from 6.1%, which, combined with earlier hot CPI inflation data, reinforces market expectations for a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. French presidential candidates presented radically different economic plans for the country's future to business leaders. These diverging visions are causing investor anxiety about the fiscal stability and financial health of the euro zone's second-largest economy. Investors in the Asia-Pacific region are showing great caution, awaiting Friday's speech by the new head of the US Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, during the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. 🛢️ Commodities The raw materials markets widely commented on reports from the British agency UKMTO about an attack on a Kuwaiti tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly carried out by Iran. Although the information gained wide publicity on Thursday, the agency specified that the incident took place on August 25, which led to a calming of sentiment and stabilization of oil prices at relatively low levels. Wheat quotes rose to their highest levels in three years due to reports of a possible escalation of Russian attacks on Ukraine, which poses a direct risk of disrupting global exports of this commodity. Gold prices returned near the $4,620 USD per ounce level, supported by concerns about the depreciation of the American currency and the rapidly growing public debt of the United States. Analysts at UBS bank raised their target forecast for gold to $5,400 USD per ounce, citing the progressive trend of global de-dollarization. As of 07:10 AM CET, gold is at 4,620, gaining 0.56% (and gaining 0.37% for the whole week), while WTI crude oil is at 81.80, losing 0.09% (and losing 5.59% for the whole week), while copper is at 14,217, losing 0.8% (and gaining 0.27% for the whole week), and WHEAT is at 754.11, gaining 0.87% (and gaining 8.37% for the whole week). 💱 Currencies The Australian dollar remains strong due to capital inflows from hedge funds that speculate on the AUD's advantage over the New Zealand dollar due to the RBA's hawkish policy and political tensions in New Zealand. The British pound is consolidating below the 1.3600 level, remaining near its weekly lows in the face of anticipation of a hawkish tone in Kevin Warsh's speech. Analysts at ING bank forecast further weakening of the Canadian dollar due to uncertainty and customs-tariff chaos in North America, despite the temporary stabilization of the currency's quotes. As of 07:10 AM CET, GBPUSD is at 1.3587, losing 0.01% (and losing 0.32% for the whole week), while USDJPY is at 159.35, gaining 0.06% (and gaining 0.34% for the whole week), while USDCHF is at 0.8054, gaining 0.14% (and gaining 0.62% for the whole week), and the dollar index is at 99.08, gaining 0.01% (and gaining 0.41% for the whole week). 🪙 Cryptocurrencies The main cryptocurrency shows low volatility, stabilizing above the key $78,600 USD threshold, while investor attention shifts to the traditional market ahead of the Fed chairman's speech. The VeChain project recorded a strong, over 7% surge, leading the gains in the segment of smaller capitalization altcoins and catching up with the rest of the market. As of 07:10 AM CET, Bitcoin is at 78,601, losing 0.03% (and gaining 1.11% for the whole week). 🗺️ Geopolitics Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to intensify military operations after concluding that peace negotiations have reached a stalemate. Additionally, a merchant ship near the Ukrainian port of Izmail was reported damaged by fragments of a downed drone, and the European Union is analyzing the possibility of using profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. The Israeli government analyzed the possibility of expelling British diplomats from the structures of an international center intended to support the post-war reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. The Chinese Foreign Minister met with the US Ambassador in Beijing, declaring the need to eliminate barriers in dialogue and better manage differences of opinion, while noting that mutual relations are still fraught with many risks. Pyongyang, through the official agency KCNA, condemned the US decision to approve the sale of weapons to South Korea, describing it as a direct threat to security in the region and announcing a decisive response to hostile actions. 🔍 Suggested for Observation WHEAT — Wheat quotes reached three-year highs after reports of the escalation of military operations by Russia, which directly threatens the global grain supply chain. COPPER — Despite a slight decline of -0.80%, copper is characterized by an extremely high 5-year Z-score of +2.77, suggesting strong market overheating in the long term. AUDUSD — The currency is characterized by a high Z-score of +2.23 and is enjoying demand from hedge funds due to the divergence in RBA and RBNZ policy. VECHAIN — The leader of gains in the cryptocurrency sector with a low 5-year Z-score of -1,35, which may signal the potential for further catching up with the rest of the market.

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Earnings

August 27, 2026

Nvidia mesmerizes markets: is it too early to doubt the AI bull market?

Nvidia has done it again: delivered an exceptional quarter and issued very strong guidance. The shares rose after results that beat Wall Street consensus and once again showed that, even with a market capitalization of around $5.5 trillion, the company is still growing at a pace that would not look out of place at a much smaller startup. There is only so many times one can write that Nvidia keeps publishing guidance that looks almost “absurdly strong,” only to beat it a few months later and raise the bar again for the next report. The remarkable part is that the company has been doing this consistently since 2023. Nvidia’s results and outlook seem to send a clear message: it may still be too early to doubt the bull market in AI-related stocks. Of course, no tree grows to the sky. But there is also no obvious alternative group of companies positioned to benefit from AI on a comparable scale to U.S. technology and semiconductor firms. And a technology boom of this magnitude may only come once. Revenue grew by more than 100% year over year, Data Center revenue increased even faster, and guidance for $108 billion in revenue next quarter again came in clearly above market expectations. Management also suggests that the AI infrastructure boom is not slowing: purchase commitments are rising, Rubin infrastructure is entering production, and cloud partners are preparing millions of additional GPUs and gigawatts of new capacity. At the same time, the picture is not completely free of risks. Operating expenses are rising quickly, customer concentration remains high, and enormous purchase commitments will increasingly weigh on working capital in the coming quarters. Even so, it is difficult to argue that the fundamental AI story is starting to crack, because Nvidia’s demand, cash flow and profitability are still moving higher. That does not mean the share price has to rise without interruption or that the current valuation is cheap, but the results once again show that the market is not paying only for dreams. The company’s net income rose by as much as 126% year over year, while gross margin held at 75%, virtually unchanged quarter over quarter despite the enormous scale of growth and around 2.5–2.6 percentage points higher than a year ago. That continues to point to a strong product mix and significant pricing power, even with competition already present and gradually becoming more visible. The key question is how long Nvidia can maintain such an exceptional growth rate before scale itself begins to work against it. Inventories rose from $21.4 billion to $31.6 billion, while receivables increased from $38.5 billion to $63.1 billion. If the pace of business expansion were to start slowing, these would likely be among the first places where signs of deteriorating quality would appear. But is that risk clearly visible or something investors should be worried about today? Not really. Data Center sales increased 117% to $89 billion, while hyperscaler revenue jumped nearly 29% quarter over quarter. That confirms that the largest cloud platforms are still aggressively expanding AI infrastructure, and Nvidia remains one of the most direct beneficiaries of those ambitions. The strong report also looks like a degree of relief for the market after a nervous period. Recent weeks have been dominated by headlines and commentary suggesting that the AI rally is losing momentum and that capital is rotating away from semiconductors, perhaps for good. We do not know whether this particular report will be enough to restore investor confidence in AI infrastructure and trigger another wave of buying. What we do know is that if the world’s largest listed company is still able to grow its business by more than 100% year over year, it may be too early to declare the end of the technology bull market. Big Tech is still spending enormous sums on artificial intelligence, and it seems overly simplistic to argue that this is driven only by greed or competitive pressure. It may simply be that the technology giants understand what they are doing, and that trillions of dollars will continue flowing into the infrastructure companies underpinning the entire AI investment cycle and the expansion of global computing capacity over the next several years. Nvidia is unquestionably one of the major winners in that process, while a forward P/E of around 24 times expected 12-month earnings does not look extreme relative to the company’s current growth rate. The biggest risks to the continuation of the AI bull market may come instead from the broader economic cycle, yet even there it is difficult to find obvious signs of a collapse in global GDP growth or demand. In that sense, Nvidia has come through the Strait of Hormuz crisis with little fundamental damage and remains positioned to challenge new all-time highs in its share price, following the record-breaking trajectory of its business. The final market reaction will be decided during Today’s Wall Street session.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

XAG/USD holds above $69.00 as traders assess Fed stance

Market participants closely await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. July’s PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.7%. Safe-haven demand and strong industrial needs in solar, EV, and AI sectors continue supporting Silver prices. Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after posting losses in the previous day, trading around $69.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Investors are closely tuning into Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Meanwhile, Silver prices are holding firm as market participants continue to evaluate the trajectory of Federal Reserve monetary policy leading into next month's crucial meeting. This steadying comes alongside fresh economic data released Wednesday, which showed July’s PCE price index accelerating to 0.2% month-on-month, beating the 0.1% forecast, while pushing the annual inflation rate up to 3.7%. Beyond interest rate expectations, precious metals remain supported by the "debasement trade," with investors seeking protection against potential US debt crisis risks and a weakening dollar. Silver is receiving an extra boost from strong fundamental drivers, enjoying robust industrial demand tied directly to green energy technologies, solar photovoltaic panels, electric vehicles, and the expanding infrastructure required for artificial intelligence data centers. According to TD Securities, the recent strength in precious metals is unlikely to translate into an immediate retest of record highs for Gold. While the supportive backdrop has helped Silver, the bank warns that, “with the market still pricing in hikes for 2027, and the energy market remaining a notable risk, we caution this rally may be too early for a renewed run back to record highs for the yellow metal.”

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Gold scales higher on softer US yields as traders await Fed Chair Warsh’s speech

Gold regains positive traction as the US Treasury’s buyback strategy keeps US bond yields depressed. The US inflation data fuels Fed rate hike bets, which support the USD and might cap the commodity. Traders also opt to wait for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday for cues about the policy path. Gold (XAU/USD) catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Thursday, reversing a major part of the previous day's losses to the $4,583 region, or the weekly low. The precious metal, however, remains below its highest level since May 14, touched on Tuesday, as traders await US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for cues about the future policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion. In the meantime, the slightly hot US inflation data released on Wednesday backed the case for at least one Fed rate hike by the end of this year. In fact, data published by the Commerce Department showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remained unchanged at 3.7% in the 12 months through July, coming in higher than expectations. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.3%, as anticipated. This points to still-sticky inflation and is likely to intensify the debate over whether interest rates should be lifted or held steady. Despite hawkish Fed expectations, US bond yields remain depressed on the back of the US Treasury's buyback strategy. Adding to this, the latest optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz cap the upside for the USD and offer some support to gold. In fact, media reports suggest that the US and Iran have reached a new ceasefire deal that would be announced in the coming days. Furthermore, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Tuesday that Tehran and Oman have agreed on a temporary maritime route for ships travelling through the waterway. Gharibabadi, however, warned that the Strait will not fully reopen until the US fulfills its commitments under an interim peace deal signed in June, keeping the geopolitical risk premium in play. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices and the safe-haven Greenback, which might keep a lid on the gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying and a sustained move beyond the $4,700 mark before positioning for the resumption of the XAU/USD pair's upward trajectory witnessed since the beginning of this month. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The precious metal holds a bullish near-term bias above the $4,525-$4,515 confluence – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-June decline. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68.21 hovers near overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory. These indicators together suggest that upside momentum is still constructive but increasingly stretched. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a move beyond the 50% retracement level and the $4,700 mark before positioning for further gains. The subsequent move up could lift the Gold price to the 61.8% level at $4,861.14. Further north, the 78.6% retracement at $5,107.11 and the cycle high region near $5,420.42 form a broader bullish objective if buyers extend the advance. On the flip side, the $4,525-$4,515 confluence might continue to protect the immediate downside. A deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% level at $4,301.87 before the structural floor around the cycle low at $3,956.35.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Wheat Futures Hit Over 3-Year Peak

Wheat futures climbed toward $7.40 per bushel in late August, hitting its highest level since June 2023, as the escalating Russia-Ukraine war fueled concerns over further disruptions to supplies from one of the world’s key grain-producing regions. Russia is set to ramp up attacks on Ukraine, including infrastructure strikes, after concluding that peace talks have reached an impasse. Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, raising fears of renewed food-price pressures amid elevated energy and transport costs stemming from Middle East conflict. Ukraine’s agricultural exports are already expected to fall by more than half this season from previous estimates, while Russian wheat exports are projected to drop over 50% in August from a year ago. Adding to upward pressure on prices, US wheat export inspections fell to 425,668 metric tons in the week ended August 20, from 514,363 tons a week earlier and well below the 1.05 million tons recorded a year ago.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Palm Oil Gains Despite Weak Export Momentum

Malaysian palm oil futures climbed above MYR 4,850 per tonne, rebounding from recent losses as a weaker ringgit boosted competitiveness and firmer edible oils on the Dalian exchange lent support. Bargain buying also emerged after prices touched a one-week low. Weather risks added to sentiment, with signs of a developing El Niño raising concerns over potential dryness and output cuts in Indonesia and Malaysia. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate is slated for full implementation on October 1, reinforcing expectations of stronger domestic consumption and tighter export supply. Still, gains were capped by softer soybean oil prices on the Chicago exchange and a further retreat in crude oil. On the demand side, cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil product exports for August 1–25 fell 11.4%–20% from the same period in July, underscoring sluggish momentum. Ample supply also weighed, with Malaysian inventories rising to a five-month high in July.

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Energies

August 27, 2026

Heating Oil Resumes Decline

US heating oil futures resumed their decline to around $4.20 per gallon on Thursday, after gaining in the previous session, as markets weighed mixed geopolitical developments. Iran and Oman agreed on how to divide their respective shares of the Strait of Hormuz’s waters and related revenues, though Tehran said an agreement with Oman alone would not be enough to reopen the key waterway. Crude also appeared to be moving out of the Persian Gulf. Limiting losses, Russia is reportedly preparing to intensify its attacks on Ukraine after determining that peace negotiations have reached a dead end. The developments raised concerns over prolonged Russian refined-product export restrictions as Ukrainian strikes pushed refinery runs toward multiyear lows. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US distillate stockpiles fell by a larger-than-expected 2.2 million barrels last week, versus expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel decline, pointing to tight inventories.

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Energies

August 27, 2026

Gasoline Turns Lower

US gasoline futures fell to around $3.26 per gallon on Thursday, trimming gains from the previous session as markets weighed mixed geopolitical developments. Iran and Oman reached an agreement on the allocation of their respective shares of the Strait of Hormuz’s waters and related revenues, although Tehran cautioned that the deal alone would not be sufficient to reopen the vital waterway. Crude also appeared to be flowing out of the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly preparing to intensify attacks on Ukraine after determining that peace negotiations have reached a dead end, capping the decline. The developments fueled concerns over prolonged Russian refined-product export restrictions, as Ukrainian strikes pushed refinery runs toward multiyear lows. Against this backdrop, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories fell by 2.536 million barrels in the week ending August 21, more than expected, leaving stocks 6% below the five-year average.

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Energies

August 27, 2026

European Gas Prices Advance

European natural gas prices rose above €66 per megawatt-hour on Thursday after a two-day decline, as investors assessed diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Iran’s military said Tehran and Oman had reached agreements on the sharing of control and revenues from the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran stressed that a deal does not imply an immediate reopening of the waterway and warned that the strait will remain closed if the US does not accept the proposal’s terms, raising uncertainty over when energy flows can return to normal. Continued restrictions in the strait have disrupted LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, causing severe delays to shipments from major exporter Qatar. At the same time, extreme summer heat has boosted demand for gas-fired power generation, leaving European gas storage just 63% full, the lowest level for this time of year since 2009. As a result, prices remain vulnerable to further volatility, particularly if supply disruptions persist into the heating season.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Soybeans Rally to 26-Month High

Soybean futures climbed to around $12.5 per bushel, hitting their highest level since May 2024 as strong Chinese demand for US supplies boosted the market. USDA reported a private sale of 333,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery, adding to a broader wave of buying by the world’s largest soybean importer. US soybean sales for 2026/27 have already reached 1.723 million tonnes in the latest reporting week, of which China accounted for 1.131 million tonnes, or nearly two-thirds of total sales. China’s Sinograin also sold 222,782 tons of the 290,000 tons of imported soybeans through an auction, showing continued strong demand. Markets are now watching a potential late-September meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi that could shape agricultural trade. Meanwhile, concerns over the US crop are adding further support after the USDA’s latest crop report showed the share of soybeans rated good-to-excellent falling to 60% from 61% a week earlier.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Cattle Post Mixed Action

Live cattle futures came back to close Wednesday mixed, with contracts mostly 37 to 82 cents higher and October down 17 cents. Cash trade picked up to $220 Wednesday, firming $2 from Tuesday, with a few dressed sales of $345 in the north. The Wednesday morning Fed Cattle Exchange online auction showed no sales on 2,000 head offered and bids of $218 to $220. Feeder cattle futures closed the session down 27 to 97 cents across the front months on Wednesday, with other contracts up 92 cents to $3 in some deferreds. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $1.19 on August 25 to $334.27.  Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were lower in the Wednesday PM report, with the Chc/Sel widening to $22.45. Choice boxes were up $3.40 at $385.13, with Select $6.30 higher to $362.68. USDA estimated Wednesday’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter at 105,000 head, with the weekly total at 310,000 head. That is up 1,000 head from the previous week, but 35,746 head below the same week last year. Aug 26 Live Cattle  closed at $218.475, up $0.375, Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $210.775, down $0.175, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $212.575, up $0.450, Aug 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $332.750, down $0.975, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $319.000, down $0.275, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $314.250, up $0.925,

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Coffee Prices Slump on the Outlook for Larger Brazil Coffee Supplies

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down -13.35 (-3.98%) on Wednesday, and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) closed down -77 (-2.09%). Coffee prices dropped to 1-week lows on Wednesday and settled sharply lower as the outlook for Brazil’s coffee harvest to put more supplies into the market has sparked long liquidation in coffee futures.  Most warehouses in Brazil are no longer accepting new coffee supplies as space fills up, suggesting farmers holding back sales in hopes of higher prices will have to increase coffee sales as storage space dwindles.  Robusta coffee is also under pressure after ICE robusta coffee inventories jumped to a 9-month high on Tuesday. On Tuesday, arabica coffee posted a 7.5-month high and robusta posted a 2.5-week high due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported on Wednesday that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 21, up 6 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 91.3% a year earlier.  Also, Safras & Mercado reported on August 14 that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%.  Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%.  Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 224,617 bags on Wednesday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots on Tuesday. Coffee prices also have support from the devastating earthquake earlier this month in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by the 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report on August 13 quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should speed up the pace of the country's coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Cocoa Prices Pressured by Abundant Supplies

December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +2 (+0.03%) on Wednesday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed down -4 (-0.10%). Cocoa prices settled little changed on Wednesday.  Prices have been under pressure this week on signs of abundant global cocoa supplies. Last Friday, Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. Also, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5. Last Thursday, cocoa prices rallied to 3-week highs on concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.  Ghana’s Cocoa Board said last Thursday that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Also, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Signs of Weak European Sugar Production Support Prices

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.32 (+1.85%) on Wednesday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -3.00 (-0.58%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Wednesday, with London sugar falling to a 1.5-week low.  NY sugar found support Wednesday on signs of lower sugar production in France, Europe’s largest producer, after the French association of sugar beet and sugar producers (AIBS) said French sugar output this year is seen slumping more than -20% below the five-year average because of prolonged drought and heat. However, London sugar prices slipped on Wednesday amid speculation that India will import less sugar than previously estimated.  People familiar with the matter said India’s sugar refiners will divert 350,000 MT of sugar into the local market to ease a supply crunch, below the 1 MMT quota approved by the Indian government.  Last Thursday, NY sugar posted a 15-month high, and London sugar posted a 17-month high on the prospects of tighter global supplies.  The Indian government said last Thursday that it will cut import duties on sugar to boost supplies and lower prices ahead of an expected surge in demand during festival season.  India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move is a further sign of the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Sugar prices have surged this month, driven by the outlook for tighter future sugar supplies.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists on July 29 raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT.  StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.  Sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported on Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 13% below normal as of August 26, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  On July 31, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  On August 14, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX last Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

August 27, 2026

Cotton Rounds Out with Gains

Cotton futures posted strength on the Wednesday session with contracts up 25 to 93 points at the close. Crude oil was down 45 cents per barrel, with the US dollar index $0.227 higher. The 7-day forecast remains relatively dry for much of Texas, with scattered light totals not seen over 0.25 inch. The Gulf is expected to see totals nearing an inch. The Cotlook A Index was unchanged on Tuesday at 98.20 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks were up 2,567 on August 25, with the certified stocks level at 66,327 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by 143 points last week to 69.62 cents/lb.  Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 87.77, up 69 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 89.14, up 80 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 91.07, up 84 points

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Geopolitics

August 26, 2026

Are markets reacting to Putin’s threats?

The failure of peace negotiations and Moscow's return to a strategy of direct escalation is a clear signal that previous diplomacy has hit a dead end. Reports of mass ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv being prepared by Russia, including on the city center and critical infrastructure, show that the Kremlin is using leaks as an element of negotiation pressure following the CIA chief's visit. Sanction pressure or Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are unlikely to force Putin to make concessions: for the regime, a lack of military success makes compromise an existential threat. The reaction of financial markets after 6:00 PM, when information emerged regarding Putin's lack of willingness to negotiate, was quite clear among indices and on the currency market. It is worth noting, however, that when various types of information appeared earlier, mainly regarding the CIA chief's visit to Moscow, some markets reacted calmly to it. How are markets reacting? Indices, commodities, and currencies The spike in oil prices due to the lack of prospects for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz somewhat confuses the market picture related to what is happening in the East. Concerns about higher inflation have triggered a sell-off in US Treasury bonds (a rise in their yields), which has increased the cost of money and hit the valuations of risky assets and gold. Today we learned about PCE inflation, which remained at a high level, and additionally, the publication of "trimmed" inflation from Dallas shows a return above 2%, which renews concerns about potential rate hikes. However, how does the market reaction relate to the situation related to Russia? Indices Polish assets can serve as an effective barometer for the geopolitical situation in the East related to Putin's actions. Delayed WIG20 reaction: The WIG20's +0.78% increase is solely due to the fact that the cash session in Warsaw closed at 5:05 PM, i.e., before the publication of key Bloomberg reports around 6:00 PM. The opening of the next session carries the direct risk of a downward adjustment gap. A better barometer may be the USDPLN pair, although the reaction there is also related to the strengthening of the dollar itself. Pullback on Wall Street and in Europe: Contracts on DE40 and US500 noted a clear decline in the late afternoon and early evening hours. The main sentiment on stock exchanges deteriorated (S&P 500 -0.17%, DAX -0.09%, Dow Jones -0.32%), reflecting the growing geopolitical risk premium. Indices in Europe retreated after news about Putin. Source: XTB USDPLN increased after the release of the inflation data in the US and after Bloomberg highlights about Putin. Source: xStation5 Gold Pressure from higher yields: Although gold serves as a safe haven, the sell-off of US bonds and a stronger dollar raise the opportunity cost of holding the bullion. This effectively prevents an immediate price rally in response to war headlines. After breaking the long-term downward channel and moving out of the 4000 USD area, the metal encountered resistance in the 4600 USD region. The current correction is the result of profit-taking and the direct impact of rising debt yields and oil prices. Gold retreats mainly due to increasing chances of the interest rate hike in the US after recent economic data from the US that left some inflationary picture. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Meta’s share price surges on legal agreement, but there could be trouble ahead

The main story in the tech world was expected to be Nvidia’s earnings that are released later today, however, Meta is grabbing the headlines, as it faces paying $16.7bn in damages after reaching an agreement on a long running legal battle with 29 US states who sued the social media giant. The case against Meta was linked to its alleged failures to protect children who use its apps including Facebook and Instagram, and how these apps promote social media addiction in the young. Meta forced to make lasting changes to Facebook and Instagram The agreement includes several requirements that Meta must implement going forward, including daily usage limits for children, nighttime blocks, enhanced age assurance measures and additional tools for parents to control how their children are interacting with Meta’s apps. Pressure on Meta to change its ways The States who sued Meta said that this agreement will make social media safer for children. This remains to be seen, a judge still needs to ratify the agreement, however, it would be in Meta’s best interests to implement these changes and pay the fine as soon as possible, otherwise its own lawyers said that the case, and other cases like it, could cost the company hundreds of billions of dollars in potential fines. Meta’s share price shrugs off fine, but for how long? The financial impact from the fine can be absorbed by Meta. It generated $60.8bn in revenues in Q2, a 28% increase in a year. However, a fine of this scale, could make a serious dent in its future quarterly earnings reports as a one-off charge. This is likely to impact Q4 earnings, or even 2027 numbers, due to the lags in payment. Meta has also said it will hold back $5.3bn, unless Youtube and TikTok pay the same amount. Meta is justifying this move by arguing that teens move fluidly across platforms. Further fines for Meta expected There could be further fines to come for Meta. The European Commission has issued two findings of non-compliance against Meta under its Digital Services Act, including utilizing addictive design features and not protecting teens from harmful content. These are similar allegations that were used in the US case, so the EU could push for a chunky fine of the same scale as the US. If Meta is found guilty of these breaches, then it could face a fine of up to 6% of global annual revenue that it will need to pay in the EU. Other countries could also follow suit, and we may see an accumulation of fines in the coming years for Meta, which could have a meaningful impact on its future earnings and profitability levels. The longer term impact on the stock price In the aftermath of today’s ruling, Meta’s share price has reversed early losses and is now higher by 0.8%. This is likely a relief rally that the court case won’t go ahead in the US, and the fine will be a maximum of $16.7bn. As mentioned, Meta is facing further legal action around the world, which could limit its share price recovery. Meta is one of the weakest performers in the Magnificent 7 this year, and its share price is down 13% YTD. We believe that concerns about legal costs, and the company’s spending on its AI ambitions could keep the stock subdued in the medium term. However, the longer term direction of the stock could be dependent on how the business reacts to legal requirements that will restrict access to its main apps by younger teens and children. If younger children can’t access Facebook and Instagram, will it hurt Meta’s ability to get them to use their apps when they are adults? This raises other questions, such as will this impact advertising revenues and its broader AI ambitions? Could it hurt Meta’s profitability? It is too early to know at this point, but if it does, Meta could see its share price struggle in the long term. Chart 1: Meta, daily price chart, its approaching its 50-day sma resistance at $591 Source: XTB

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Energies

August 26, 2026

Oil reverses declines despite Trump’s assurances, while Wall Street awaits Nvidia’s judgment report

It is clear that Wall Street investors are unsure of what to expect in the near future. Volatility in recent days has decreased significantly, and a sideways trend has appeared on the chart. Investors are waiting today for the results of the American chip giant, Nvidia, while the broader market sentiment will depend not so much on the data as on Kevin Warsh's words during his speech in Jackson Hole this Friday. Nevertheless, the PCE inflation data in the US published before the opening turned out not to significantly change the picture of the American economy, and the earlier sell-off in the crude oil market brought investors another moment of respite, although at the same time investors completely ignored positive words from Trump, which later led to a significant rebound in prices. Market situation: Macro, oil and indices The publication of the July report on Americans' income and spending brought mixed conclusions. The headline PCE inflation rate was 0.2% m/m (and slightly more than expectations on an annual basis at 3.7% y/y). In turn, core PCE inflation was 0.3% m/m and 3.3% y/y (in line with expectations). Real consumer spending turned out to be flat (0.0% m/m), signaling a cooling of demand after June driven by promotional campaigns such as Amazon Prime Day. A sell-off was visible in the commodities market during the first part of the day. WTI oil and Brent oil lost up to 1%, but we are currently observing a clear demand reaction. Nevertheless, the earlier declines were triggered by information about Iran and Oman taking up talks regarding a "temporary framework" for unblocking ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical situation is being heated up by statements from President Donald Trump, who suggested that Iran's supreme leader was seriously injured, but at the same time indicates that as many as 10 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. What is the situation on futures contracts? The contract for the technical Nasdaq 100 index (US100) lost as much as 0.3% before the start of the session, but despite the negative cash opening, we are currently observing a flat move at 0.01%. Tech markets are holding their breath ahead of Nvidia's report and Salesforce results. US500 on the S&P 500 index is also flat but after initial declines it us up by 0,11%, oscillating around 7700 points. Barclays strategists warn of rising macro volatility and seasonal weakness ahead of the midterms. The contract for the small-cap Russell 2000 index is doing the best and gained as much as 0.1% during the first minutes Volatility on key stocks starts rather flat, except for clearly losing Alphabet or gaining AMD. The industrial and hardware sectors, represented by Apple, Dell, and Cisco, are doing relatively well. Source: XTB US100 Technical Analysis US100 contract quotes were still trying to break out of the triangle formation in the first half of August, attacking levels of 30,500 points. Later, however, a correction occurred and the range of the triangle formation was realized after a downward breakout. However, US100 is holding support around 29,000 points, which is strengthened by the 23.6 retracement. If today's session ends with an increase, it could mean an attempt to break out of the current short-term downward trend. 4. Company news (Yahoo Finance / Premarket) Nvidia (NVDA.US) (-0.3%): The market is pricing in an implied move of about 5.4% after the results are published. Although the P/E valuation is near local lows, analysts point to rising credit risk (CDS) for Nvidia relative to other large tech companies and a surge in HBM4 memory costs. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.US) (+30%): Shares are rising after reporting a $100 million return on duties and after raising the full-year sales growth forecast and beating expectations in Q2 results. Intuit (INTU.US) (-3.4%): The financial software company is losing heavily after presenting disappointing full-year profit and revenue forecasts, which adds to concerns about AI pressure on traditional IT. Zoom Communications (ZM.US) (-6.12%): Share sell-off following the presentation of cautious revenue forecasts for the current quarter, which overshadowed progress in the commercialization of AI solutions. Boston Scientific (BSX.US) (-4.3%): The stock price is falling in response to an announcement about a global cybersecurity incident that disrupted the company's IT systems. JM Smucker (SJM.US) (+4.2%): The food producer raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast thanks to high margins in the coffee and snacks segment. Summit Therapeutics (SMMT.US) (+11.7%): A sharp increase in quotes after successful results of phase III clinical trials for a drug for biliary tract cancer (ivonescimab). After the last great quarter and revenues of $81.6 billion, the latest data are expected to show revenues of $92 billion. However, given the expectation of a significant beat of expectations of at least 5%, anything below $97 billion may be considered a failure by investors. That is why the appearance of a three-digit number in revenues would be a certain milestone for the company. Source: XTB

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Trade of The Day – WHEAT

Facts: The price is above the EMA 5, 20, 100, and 200 averages. EMA 100 is above EMA 200. RSI [14] is around 68. The MACD line is above the signal line. The price has broken above a local high at around 710. The USDA forecast indicates consumption exceeding supply by 7 million tons. Recommendation: Long position (Buy) on WHEAT at market price. Target price (Take Profit, TP): 785 Stop Loss (SL): 684 WHEAT (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION : The wheat (WHEAT) chart currently shows a forming opportunity from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Despite strong gains in recent weeks, driven by concerns about exports via the Black Sea, the price has surpassed the latest peak, confirming strong demand and an upward trend. The uptrend is confirmed by the EMA alignment and MACD. The base scenario is for the price to continue following the upper boundary of the expanding rising channel toward the 161 Fibonacci extension of the last upward wave, below which the TP level is located. From a fundamental perspective, wheat also retains upside arguments, as the conflict in Ukraine is only one of many supply factors. Production in the US is expected to decline, and in India the monsoon season has turned out to be exceptionally dry. Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical chart analysis, in particular EMAs, Fibonacci levels, and fundamental analysis of the wheat market. The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels. The protective stop loss order was set based on a favorable risk to reward ratio and based on a Fibonacci level.

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Chart of the Day – US100 ahead of Nvidia earnings – will semiconductors get hit or get fresh fuel?

The Nasdaq 100 futures contract ( US100 ) will be closely watched by global markets today ahead of earnings from Nvidia (NVDA.US), the world’s largest listed company by market capitalization, due after the U.S. market close. The results are likely to shape investor sentiment toward chipmakers and sectors linked to AI infrastructure. Investors expect the company to report nearly 100% year-over-year revenue growth, but simply beating consensus and raising guidance may not be enough to push sentiment materially higher. To reignite momentum across semiconductors, Nvidia may need to surprise investors with something genuinely new or provide more detail on developments that have appeared in global media over recent weeks. One such development is the reported 15% price increase for Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell server infrastructure. If the company raises its margin outlook while maintaining strong sales guidance, the semiconductor sector could regain momentum, potentially supporting a move in US100 back above 30,000 points. If Nvidia delivers excellent numbers but fails to offer any meaningful new catalyst, the market reaction could be mixed. In a negative-surprise scenario affecting any of the key metrics, a pullback toward around 28,600 points cannot be ruled out, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downward move. Wolfe Research data indicate that momentum stocks are struggling to reclaim key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently acting as resistance. This weakness increases the importance of Nvidia’s earnings, which could determine the short-term direction of a broad group of growth and semiconductor stocks, where capital has been concentrated to an unprecedented degree over the past two years. The Nasdaq 100 currently trades at an average P/E ratio of around 23x, compared with roughly 30x at the peak of the dot-com boom and a 20-year average of about 20x. Valuations therefore remain demanding, but so far they have been supported by strong fundamentals, including the AI investment boom and rapid earnings growth. US100 chart (D1 interval) Over the past 30 days, US100 has gained around 4%, but the index has also gone through several weaker sessions and failed to remain above 30,000 points for long. The key resistance levels today are 29,500 and 30,000 points, while important support zones to watch are 28,600, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and 28,000 points. The index recently found support around the EMA200 and has maintained its medium-term upward trend since then, despite the loss of momentum seen over the past few weeks. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Economic calendar – Wall Street holds its breath: US PCE data and Nvidia earnings in focus

Today's calendar is relatively busy, with the key releases concentrated in the afternoon, shortly before the Wall Street open. The main focus will be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for July, together with fresh data on U.S. household income and consumption. The releases could trigger a sharp increase in volatility in EURUSD and, once again, in the bond market. At the same time, Nvidia will symbolically "close" the U.S. earnings season when it reports results for fiscal Q2 2027, corresponding to calendar Q2 2026, after today's U.S. market close. The release will be one of the most important tests for the broader AI rally. The market expects revenue of around $93–95 billion, implying growth of nearly 96% y/y, while the EPS consensus stands at approximately $2.05–2.10. The main areas to watch will be data center revenue, the pace of the Blackwell ramp and the company's guidance for the next quarter. Investors will also closely monitor gross margins, which have remained near a very high 78% in recent quarters. A clear decline could point to rising competitive pressure or weaker pricing power. Expectations for Nvidia are already so elevated that merely meeting consensus may not be enough to sustain the stock's upward momentum. The earnings call will be just as important as the headline numbers, as management's commentary could provide important clues about the future pace of hyperscaler spending and whether demand for AI infrastructure, as well as the build-out itself, is still expanding fast enough. Economic calendar 9:00 AM GMT – Switzerland: ZEW Expectations Index, previous: 10 12:00 PM GMT – US: MBA Mortgage Applications, previous: -0.4% 1:30 PM GMT – US: PCE Price Index YoY, forecast: 3.6%; previous: 3.7% 1:30 PM GMT – US: PCE Price Index MoM, forecast: 0.1%; previous: -0.1% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core PCE Price Index YoY, forecast: 3.3%; previous: 3.3% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core PCE Price Index MoM, forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.1% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core PCE, preliminary reading, forecast: 3.4%; previous: 3.4% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Durable Goods Orders, previous: 0.5% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Core Durable Goods Orders, forecast: 0.6%; previous: 0.7% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Consumer Spending MoM, forecast: 0.1%; previous: 0.3% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Personal Income MoM, forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.2% 1:30 PM GMT – US: Real Personal Consumption MoM, forecast: 0.0%; previous: 0.4% 1:30 PM GMT – US: GDP QoQ, second estimate, previous: 1.5% 1:30 PM GMT – US: GDP Price Index, forecast: 6.2%; previous: 6.2% 1:30 PM GMT – US: GDP Deflator, preliminary reading, previous: 6.3% 3:30 PM GMT – US: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, forecast: +1.58 million barrels; previous: +4.405 million 3:30 PM GMT – US: EIA Gasoline Inventories, forecast: -1.1 million barrels; previous: +0.688 million 3:30 PM GMT – US: EIA Distillate Inventories, forecast: -1.9 million barrels; previous: -1.530 million 3:30 PM GMT – US: Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, no forecast; previous: -1.314 million barrels 4:45 PM GMT – US: Fed's Thomas Barkin speaks Nvidia: fiscal Q2 2027 earnings release after the U.S. market close EURUSD chart (D1 interval) Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Oil tumbles to $85, markets await Nvidia earnings

U.S. stock indices recovered a small part of their recent losses yesterday as oil prices and bond yields declined, modestly improving risk appetite ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release after the U.S. market close — a key event for the broader AI rally. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, while semiconductor stocks rebounded after several weaker sessions. Today, Wall Street futures are slightly lower, with attention focused not only on Nvidia’s results but also on U.S. PCE data at 1:30 PM GMT and the oil market, where prices have fallen sharply to around $85 per barrel. Brent crude futures (OIL) fell to around $85 per barrel amid hopes that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could resume and signs that the risk of further conflict escalation may be easing. Lower energy prices reduced inflation concerns and supported government bonds. Gold is down around 0.3% today, pulling back to $4,650 per ounce, while Bitcoin is holding in the $78,000–79,000 range. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose about 1%, supported by gains of nearly 3% in Samsung and SK Hynix and broader strength across the semiconductor sector. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by around 7 bps as oil prices declined. The Canadian dollar weakened following an escalation in the Canada-U.S. trade dispute. AUDUSD is rising after stronger-than-expected inflation data from Australia. Headline CPI increased by 3.5% y/y versus 3.3% expected and 3.8% previously, while trimmed mean inflation came in at 3.6% y/y versus 3.5% expected and 3.6% previously. ANZ Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 bps in November. Yesterday’s macroeconomic data were mixed. U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year as assessments of business conditions and labor-market prospects deteriorated. Investors remain relatively cautious ahead of today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. According to unconfirmed media reports, the U.S. and Iran may have reached an agreement on a ceasefire, with an official announcement potentially coming in the coming days. Russian outlet RIA Novosti was among the first to report the information, which markets interpreted as lending some credibility to such a scenario. The potential agreement is said to include freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and a resumption of negotiations under the Islamabad memorandum. Earlier, Axios reported that Marco Rubio had indicated that attacks on Iran would be suspended, at least temporarily. Washington and Tehran have not confirmed any agreement , although Oman and Iran have separately proposed an interim mechanism aimed at restoring traffic through the strait. Iranian sources suggest that negotiators are still demanding that the U.S. return to the original memorandum and implement Clause 5, which Tehran interprets as granting it the right to determine transit rules through the Strait of Hormuz. The positions of both sides therefore appear relatively unchanged, suggesting that progress remains limited. Yesterday, five vessels carrying commodities passed through the Strait of Hormuz, well below the 10-day average of 15 vessels. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the European economy appears to be developing at an increasingly solid pace and that a stronger economy requires higher interest rates. At the same time, she noted that the situation in energy and gas markets remains concerning. Intuit and Zoom Communications reported earnings after the U.S. close yesterday. Despite relatively solid results, their shares are down around 10% and 5%, respectively. Oil chart (OIL, D1 interval) Oil futures have reached the 200-session EMA200 for the first time since mid-June and have so far stabilized around that level, as indicated by the lower candle wicks. The technical setup still appears to favor the bears, with a double top visible near $93.5-94. If the $85 level fails to hold as support, the next key zone lies between $78 and $80 per barrel based on price action. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Gold remains depressed below $4,650 on firmer USD; looks to US PCE for Fed rate outlook

Gold is seen consolidating in a range as bulls keenly await the release of the US PCE data. Fading Fed hike bets and sliding US bond yields weigh on the USD, supporting the bullion. The bullish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside. Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to modest losses below $4,650 heading into the European session on Wednesday, though it lacks bearish conviction and remains confined within the previous day's broader range. The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction amid some repositioning ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and is seen as weighing on the commodity. Adding to this, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday might offer more cues about the interest rate path. The outlook, in turn, will drive the USD and the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, expectations have shifted toward a policy hold at the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting in the wake of cooling price pressures and a sluggish labor market. Moreover, the US Treasury's buyback strategy leads to a further decline in US bond yields. Meanwhile, two senior officials indicated that the Treasury could use its near $1 trillion General Account to fund its recently announced plans to increase buybacks of longer-term bonds. Furthermore, positive developments surrounding the Middle East crisis weigh on crude oil prices, easing inflation fears and exerting additional pressure on US bond yields. This, in turn, might cap gains for the USD and acts as a tailwind for the Gold price. Crude oil prices dropped to a nearly two-week low after Iran said that it had restarted talks with Oman to manage commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The countries said they had discussed a joint temporary navigational corridor through the strategic waterway. Adding to this, the US offered Iran sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade in exchange for reopening the Strait and halting attacks carried out by its regional proxies. This revived hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war, which could further dent the Greenback's reserve currency status and support the Gold price. Hence, strong follow-through selling is needed to confirm a near-term top for the XAU/USD pair. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The recent breakout through the $4,500 psychological mark confluence hurdle – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June decline – was seen as a key trigger for XAU/USD bulls. The subsequent move up, however, struggles to find acceptance above the 50% retracement level, warranting some caution before positioning for any further gains. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) near 72 signals overbought conditions and hints that upside momentum, although strong, could be vulnerable to consolidation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, 9) stays in positive territory, reinforcing the constructive tone despite stretched momentum. Nevertheless, XAU/USD bulls might still wait for a move above $4,700. A sustained break above the said handle would open the way toward the 61.8% level at $4,856, the 78.6% retracement at $5,104, and the cycle high area around $5,421. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA at $4,522 and the nearby 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,508, with deeper pullbacks likely targeting the 23.6% retracement at $4,292 and the structural floor anchored near $3,944.

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Banks

August 26, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA waits as inflation sticks – Commerzbank

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in wait-and-see mode after three rate hikes, assessing how inflation and the labor market evolve. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 3.5% but missed expectations, with trimmed-mean inflation stuck at 3.6%. He expects a hawkish tone at the September meeting but still doubts another rate hike is likely. Stubborn CPI and RBA stance "In the minutes of the most recent monetary policy meeting released yesterday, it became clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia intends to take a wait-and-see approach for now to consider its next move. After three interest rate hikes at the beginning of the year, the bank sees itself in a good position and wants to first assess how inflation and the labor market continue to develop." "Although the annual inflation rate fell to 3.5% in July from 3.8% in June, the median consensus forecast, according to Bloomberg, had anticipated a decline to 3.3%. This was likely due primarily to the fact that the energy component did not come in as low as expected." "Looking ahead, falling real estate prices are likely to weigh on the housing component of inflation. At the moment, however, there is no sign of this in the current figures." "Admittedly, the RBA’s next meeting isn’t until September 29. Another labor market report will be released by then, and even though the CPI figures for August won’t be published until a day later, the RBA will likely get a preview during the meeting." "For now, however, it appears the RBA will need to strike a hawkish tone again next month to signal its readiness. We still do not believe, however, that another rate hike is likely."

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Banks

August 26, 2026

US Dollar: Core PCE and Warsh remarks in focus – OCBC

OCBC Bank strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that lower energy prices have helped pull US and European yields down, supporting a more benign macro backdrop without stoking USD debasement fears. Markets are watching US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) reaction function and commitment to the 2% inflation target could influence USD support and volatility. Core PCE and Jackson Hole watched "Lower energy prices helped pull US and European bond yields lower." "This reinforces the view that a more benign macro backdrop, rather than interventions such as the Treasury’s surprise buyback announcement, can support lower yields across the curve without sparking concerns over USD debasement that increases USD volatility." "Today's key event risk is US core PCE inflation. While the data is unlikely to alter the broader narrative of sticky inflation remaining modestly above target, it could keep hawkish Fed risks alive even if policymakers are expected to remain on hold in September." "Questions around the Fed’s reaction function, and growing concerns that it may be placing less emphasis on inflation control, have heightened market focus on Chair Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole." "The USD could find support if Warsh and other Fed officials push back against debasement concerns and reaffirm their commitment to returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% target."

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Banks

August 26, 2026

Equities: Tech-led gains with softer Oil – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank notes that Nvidia’s earnings have become a major macro catalyst, although the impact of positive surprises has faded in recent quarters. Ahead of the latest results, a rebound in Nvidia and semiconductor stocks helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while European equities were also mostly firmer. Asian markets are broadly higher as lower oil prices and bond yields support risk sentiment, with the KOSPI leading gains, while Australian equities underperform after inflation came in above expectations. US, Asian and European indices firm "As we said at the start of the week, in the past few years Nvidia’s earnings have often been a big macro event, with reactions on par with US jobs reports and CPI prints. But in the most recent quarters, the positive earnings surprises haven’t been as big as those in 2023-24, and after each of the last four earnings reports, Nvidia’s share price actually fell the next day." "Ahead of the release, Nvidia (+2.19%) and the Philly Semiconductor Index (+1.44%) recovered yesterday. With the AI trade seeing more volatility over the summer, the Philly Semiconductor index is down -20.8% from its June peak, though it’s down only -1.9% from its level at the time of Nvidia’s last results on May 20 and is still up +63.6% YTD." "The boost in AI sentiment helped the S&P 500 (+0.32%) and the Nasdaq (+0.66%) advance yesterday even as most S&P constituents fell on the day. US equity futures are little changed this morning." "Asian equity markets are mostly advancing this morning supported by lower oil prices and bond yields. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.97%) is leading gains. The Nikkei (+0.76%), CSI 300 (+1.03%), Hang Seng (+0.82%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.72%) are also clearly higher with tech stocks rising ahead of Nvidia’s results. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.15%) is bucking the regional trend after Australia’s inflation overshot estimates." "European equities were also mostly stronger yesterday, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.35%), DAX (+0.61%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.29%) moving higher, though the CAC (-0.16%) fell back."

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Banks

August 26, 2026

British Pound: Upside remains intact above 1.3605 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann maintain a positive 1–3 week outlook for GBP/USD, with 1.3700 still in sight as long as the pair holds above 1.3605. While the near-term tone has softened and spot has slipped below the bank’s expected 1.3630–1.3665 intraday range, the broader upside scenario remains valid unless strong support at 1.3605 gives way. 1.3700 remains in focus while 1.3605 holds "24-HOUR VIEW: Following Monday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum,” and we held the view that GBP “is likely to continue to trade in a range between 1.3615 and 1.3660.” GBP then traded within a narrower range than expected (1.3623/1.3655) before closing modestly higher at 1.3650 (+0.15%). While further range-trading appears likely today, the firmer underlying tone suggests GBP is likely to trade in a higher range of 1.3630/1.3665." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540). On Friday (21 Aug, spot at 1.3640), we indicated that GBP “could continue to rise to 1.3700.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3605 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3585), it will mean that 1.3700 is out of reach."

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Banks

August 26, 2026

Euro: Holds near 1.1670 against US Dollar as rate moves offset – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports that EUR/USD remained little changed around 1.1670, with the chart showing only a modest pullback from overnight highs before a partial recovery. Lower US yields and softer oil prices weighed on the Dollar, but declining European rates limited the Euro’s upside, leaving the pair without a clear directional signal. EUR/USD stays broadly stable despite softer US yields "US yields and oil prices moved lower yesterday, with Brent falling below USD90, as rumours stirred that there might be renewed hope for diplomacy between the US and Iran. EUR/USD was little changed however, as European rates declined as well." "In the euro area, The German Ifo index rose by more than expected in August. The current assessment index rose to 88.5 (cons: 87.0, prior: 86.6) which is the highest level since 2024. Expectations rose to 89.1 (cons: 87.5, prior: 86.6) and are thereby almost back at the pre-war level." "The evidence of a clear rebound in the German economy is thus piling up, particularly driven by the manufacturing sector. We expect the rebound to continue going forward as orders are up markedly and fiscal policy supports activity." "In the US, consumer confidence weakened further in August, with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index falling to 89.4, below consensus expectations of 91.2 and the previous reading of 90.8. The assessment of the current situation improved, while expectations for the future declined." "Labour market perceptions also strengthened, as more respondents viewed jobs as plentiful, although overall labour market sentiment remains on the weak side. Plans for major purchases were mixed, with intentions to buy cars and homes declining, while planned vacations increased. Overall, the release does not provide a clear market signal." "In the US, the July PCE inflation figures, the Fed's preferred measure, will be released in the afternoon. In June, PCE inflation was 3.7% y/y, still way above the Fed's target. Core inflation also remains elevated and was at 3.3% in June. Keep in mind that US Bureau of Economic Analysis will update their methodology for their calculation of PCE at the September release, which is expected to decrease core PCE by 0.2 percentage points for the August PCE figures."

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Energies

August 26, 2026

European Gas Prices Extend Decline

European natural gas prices dropped more than 5% to below €64 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session as signs of progress in the Middle East talks eased fears of a squeeze on energy supplies. Iran’s and Oman’s foreign ministers said that they discussed plans for a temporary transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, along with a project to clear mines from the waterway. Pakistan also said on Tuesday that it had made significant progress in talks with Tehran aimed at ending the war. The US decision to return diplomats to the Middle East also allayed fears of a further escalation in the conflict. However, supply risks remain as the ongoing maritime blockade continues to disrupt physical LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, with shipments from major exporter Qatar facing severe delays. Persistent hot weather across Europe is also driving higher electricity demand for cooling, slowing the pace of seasonal gas storage injections.

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Energies

August 26, 2026

US Natgas Prices Rebound

US natural gas prices rose to around $2.81/MMBtu on Wednesday, recovering from a one-week low reached in the previous session as forecasts for hotter weather lifted expectations for stronger cooling demand. According to the Commodity Weather Group, forecasts shifted toward hotter conditions, with above-average temperatures anticipated across the Gulf, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic regions from August 30 through September 8. However, price gains were capped by strong domestic production, which added to oversupply concerns. Lower-48 output averaged a record 111.4 bcfd so far in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, while inventories remained 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average as of August 14. Softer LNG export activity has also weighed on prices, with average gas flows to the nine major LNG export facilities falling slightly to 17.1 bcfd so far this month from 17.2 bcfd in July, leaving more natural gas available for domestic use.

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Copper Hits Fresh Record High

Copper futures climbed above $6.7 per pound on Wednesday, reaching a new all-time high as supply-side risks persisted despite a recent easing of the market squeeze. Traders continued to divert shipments toward the US amid elevated premiums and expectations of new tariffs under the Trump administration, with the White House yet to make a final decision on the matter. Copper inventories in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange have fallen by almost half since mid-May following a 42-day streak of declines. Elsewhere, Zijin Mining warned that flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo could cut its share of production by as much as 57,000 tons this year, underscoring ongoing risks to global supply. On the demand side, Chinese smelters have faced difficulties securing feedstock, increasing the need for imports.

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Corn Hits 3-Year High on US Crop Concerns

Corn futures jumped above $5 per bushel, hitting their highest level since July 2023 as mounting concerns over US crop yields pointed to tighter supplies. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour recently estimated the 2026 US corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, well below the USDA’s latest forecast of 180.7 bushels, while production was projected at 15.34 billion bushels. The bearish supply outlook was reinforced by the USDA’s latest crop report, which showed the share of corn rated good-to-excellent falling three percentage points to 57% for the week ended August 23. Weather remains a key concern, with heat stress and excessive rainfall affecting parts of the Midwest and potentially limiting yields ahead of harvest. Meanwhile, US corn export inspections remain strong, with cumulative shipments up 26% from a year earlier despite a recent easing in weekly shipments to 1.3 million tones. Elsewhere, disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments continued to raise concerns over global supplies.

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Palm Oil Retreats to One-Week Low

Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses, trading below MYR 4,900 per tonne and touching their lowest level in a week as traders returned from a holiday. Sentiment was pressured by a stronger ringgit and weaker soyoil prices on the Chicago market, while crude oil fell on renewed hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. Demand concerns also weighed, with cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services noting that palm oil product exports for August 1–25 dipped 20% from the same period in July. Ample supplies added to the bearish tone, as Malaysian palm oil inventories climbed to a five-month high in July. Separately, exports by top grower Indonesia fell 9.2% yoy in June, according to palm oil association GAPKI. Still, losses were capped by firmer Dalian soyoil prices. Concerns that a developing El Niño could intensify dryness and curb output in Indonesia and Malaysia also provided support, along with Indonesia's planned full implementation of its B50 mandate from Oct 1.

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Wheat Futures Hit 1-Month High

Wheat futures climbed toward $7 per bushel in late August, reaching their highest level since July 23, as intensifying Russia-Ukraine attacks threatened to further disrupt grain shipments from the Black Sea. The worsening conflict has raised concerns over the ability of the two major wheat exporters to move their crops to global markets, particularly as the new harvest gathers pace. Russia is expected to ship 46 million metric tons of wheat in the current marketing year, while Ukraine is projected to export 13.5 million tons, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Adding to upward pressure on prices, US wheat export inspections fell to 425,668 metric tons in the week ended August 20, from 514,363 tons a week earlier and well below the 1.05 million tons inspected during the same week last year. Meanwhile, the US spring wheat harvest was advancing rapidly, with 62% of the crop in the bin as of Sunday, compared with 41% a week earlier and above the five-year average of 52%.

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Markets

August 26, 2026

Soybeans Hold at 1-Month High

Soybean futures held above $12.2 per bushel, staying near a four-week high as weaker US crop conditions and fresh export demand supported prices. The USDA’s national soybean rating dipped over the past week, with the share of the crop rated good-to-excellent falling 1 percentage point to 60% for the week ended August 23. Although 91% of the crop had reached the pod-setting stage, traders remain focused on whether further deterioration could reduce production potential and tighten the balance sheet ahead of harvest. Meanwhile, private exporters reported a sale of 132,000 tonnes of new-crop US soybeans to an unknown destination, with traders speculating that China could be the buyer. The potential purchase comes as US-China trade tensions remain in focus, with the prospect of new US tariffs on Chinese goods adding uncertainty around future soybean demand. Markets are also watching a potential late-September meeting between Trump and Xi that could shape agricultural trade.

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Banks

August 25, 2026

Gold: Tariff conflict fuels safe haven bid – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch reports that Gold has surged to a three‑month high near USD 4,700 per ounce as US–Canada tariff tensions escalate and concerns over US debt intensify. Silver and Platinum have also rallied. Strong ETF inflows, particularly in North America, suggest sustained investor interest, and the bank sees indications that Gold prices will continue to rise. Tariffs and ETFs support rally "The rise in the price of gold continued at the start of the new trading week. Having already risen by more than 5% last week, the price reached almost USD 4,700 per troy ounce overnight, its highest level in more than three months." "As in previous phases of escalation in the tariff dispute, the price of gold rose significantly, as this could further damage the US dollar’s reputation as a reserve currency and safe haven." "According to the World Gold Council, gold ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflows in 10 months, totalling 46.7 tons. Of this, 30.4 tons were attributed to North America and 13.8 tons to Europe." "Given the current news situation, there are strong indications that ETF purchases will continue and that the price of gold will rise further."

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Banks

August 25, 2026

US Dollar: Fragmentation risks and reserve diversification – MUFG

Michael Wan at MUFG discusses US threats of economic punishment on countries dealing with Iran and new sanctions on over 60 entities. He argues that rising geoeconomic fragmentation encourages countries to diversify reserves, trade and financial links away from reliance on any single system, including the Dollar-based one. Wan also references ongoing US–Canada trade tensions and perceived uncertainty around US trade agreements. Geoeconomic fragmentation and reserve shifts "US 10-year yields fell a touch to 4.69% as news reports emerged that the US Treasury could use the Treasury General Account – essentially the US Treasury’s “savings account” at the Fed – for buyback auctions." "This is even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent refrained from providing any further signals on revamping US debt management, and that the US Treasury will continue with regular program of debt auctions as announced in the last quarterly refunding." "All this comes as the US threatened economic punishment against any country doing business with Iran as part of an “economic D-Day” campaign to isolate the country, with Scott Bessent saying that countries will face a specific timeline to shutdown links with Iran or face unilateral US punishment." "The US also unveiled sanctions against more than 60 entities, focusing on five of Iran’s “most vital lifelines”, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping." "Beyond whether these measures will be effective in achieving the US’ aims and objectives, the broader macro picture is that with greater geoeconomic fragmentation, it seems rational for countries around the world to diversify their reserves, trade and financial linkages further to prevent themselves from being too reliant on any one system, including our current Dollar-based one." "This also perhapsincludes ongoing trade tensions that we see playing out right now between the US and Canada, and certainly in Asia there is also a quiet and unspoken sense that trade deals and agreements with the US are written more on pencil rather than with a pen, as Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said."

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Banks

August 25, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA risks and carry support – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Australian Dollar (AUD) largely ignored the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) August Minutes, which reiterated Governor Michele Bullock’s warning that another rate hike is quite possible. Futures imply around 60% odds of a final 25 bps hike to 4.60% by year-end. Haddad sees risks skewed toward an extended pause but highlights Australia’s attractive carry and strategic commodity exposure as key AUD tailwinds. RBA path and AUD tailwinds "AUD ignored the release of the RBA August meeting Minutes. The Minutes reinforced Governor Michele Bullock’s warning that another rate hike was “quite possible.”" "According to the Minutes “Several members judged that it was quite possible that the upside risks to the inflation forecast would crystallise, requiring some further tightening.”" "RBA cash rate futures continue to imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%." "In our view, the risk is skewed towards a more extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle because policy is already somewhat restrictive." "Still, Australia’s attractive carry alongside the country’s strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defense remain key AUD tailwinds."

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Banks

August 25, 2026

British Pound: Range trading outlook against Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses the British Pound's (GBP) recent performance, noting it is currently the top G10 currency on a 1‑day view but only middling over longer horizons. Foley expects EUR/GBP to trade in a range over the coming weeks, with a mild upside bias later in the year as fiscal realism and reduced BoE rate hike risk weigh on Sterling. Sterling resilience and fiscal constraints "The pound is sitting pretty this morning as the top performing G10 currency on a 1-day view, though its performance in most other time frames can be better described as ‘middling’." "There have been some better-than-expected UK economic data released in recent weeks. This means that the UK economy, along with that of the Eurozone, can be described as ‘resilient’ through Q2 and into the summer." "We expect further range trading in EUR/GBP over the coming weeks, with a mild upside bias later in the year as fiscal realism weighs and BoE rate hike risk is further priced out." "In view of the energy price crisis stemming from the Iran war, this is a better outcome than most forecasters had expected." "It remains Rabobank’s central view that the MPC will continue to side-step a rate hike this year." "Since the market still sees some risk of higher rates this year, steady policy, in line with our view, could undermine the pound." "We maintain a 3-month EUR/GBP forecast of 0.87."

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Banks

August 25, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Trade conflict keeps downside risks alive against US Dollar – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights escalating US-Canada trade tensions, with new US tariffs on Canadian autos and parts announced for early next year. He notes both sides remain entrenched in conflict territory and argues the recent rebound in USD/CAD has room to extend beyond 1.390, as trade risks and broader Dollar dynamics continue to influence the pair. US-Canada dispute underpins USD/CAD "On Canada, the situation is still in the escalation phase. Trump has announced 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and parts from 1 January." "The US-Canada dispute could incidentally amplify that negative dollar reaction." "The distant implementation date suggests some caution around disrupting the auto sector ahead of the midterms, while also leaving ample room for negotiations." "At the same time, both sides remain firmly in trade-conflict territory." "We think the rebound in USD/CAD can extend beyond 1.390."

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Banks

August 25, 2026

Japanese Yen: Range trade within 157.90 and 159.80 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe USD/JPY as locked in a range-trading phase, with a slightly firmer tone keeping the pair in a higher intraday band of 158.80–159.45. Their 1–3 week view is now neutral after earlier downside bias faded, and they expect the pair to oscillate between 157.90 and 159.80 rather than extend losses in the near term. Neutral bias within defined band "24-HOUR VIEW: USD traded between 158.33 and 159.13 last Friday, closing little changed at 158.93 (-0.08%). When USD was at 158.95 yesterday, we stated that “the price action provides no fresh clues.” We added that USD “could trade between 158.55 and 159.30.” USD subsequently traded within a range of 158.59/159.28 and closed little changed at 159.08 (+0.09%). The price action appears to be part of a rangetrading phase, but the firmer underlying tone suggests USD is likely to trade in a higher range of 158.80/159.45 today." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our USD view to slightly negative last Thursday (20 Aug, spot at 158.30). We highlighted that “downward momentum is starting to build, but it is insufficient for a sustained decline.” We also highlighted that USD “could edge lower, but any decline should be contained within a 156.60/159.60 range.” Since then, USD traded mostly in a range, and the build-up in downward momentum has faded. From here, instead of edging lower, USD is more likely to trade in a range between 157.90 and 159.80."

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Markets

August 25, 2026

Trade of the day: DE40

Facts: DE40 broke above the resistance at 26225 German index is trading in a long-term upward trend Recommendation: Trade: Long DE40 at market price Target: 26580 Stop loss: 26130 Opinion: DE40 has been trading in a downward correction move recently. However, taking a look at the H1 internal, we can see that the price bounced off the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 26065, which according to the Overbalance strategy heralds a resumption of the upward trend. In addition the price broke above the key resistance at 26225 which confirms the upward scenario. According to the classic technical analysis, as long as the price sits above the aforementioned 26225 resistance an upward move looks to be a more probable option .We recommend going long DE40 at market price with a target of 26580 pts. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 26130. Source: xStation5

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Energies

August 25, 2026

Commodity Wrap – Natgas, Cocoa, Gold, Oil

Market Situation During today's session on the commodities market, slight declines prevail, with the average decrease amounting to -0.26% and only 7 out of 26 assets rising. The growth leaders remain agricultural commodities and European natural gas, which has gained over 8% this week. Precious metals are undergoing a correction today, including platinum (-1.67%) and silver (-1.54%). Despite this, the entire group of bullion, along with copper noting an extreme deviation of +2.77σ, remains historically expensive relative to the five-year average. Copper's strong position is supported primarily by low inventory levels on the LME exchange and stable demand from the USA. In the oil sector, WTI prices are under pressure from a stronger dollar, but deeper declines are limited by geopolitical tensions around Iran and Russia and announcements of production cuts in Kazakhstan. In the coming days, key factors for commodity price directions will be the behavior of bond yields, the dollar exchange rate, and the sustainability of the economic recovery in the Eurozone, as indicated by today's better-than-expected reading of the German Ifo index. From the perspective of the last month, there are few commodities that have lost value. Source: XTB Natgas Natural gas (NATGAS) quotations on the American market are consolidating around the level of 2.787 USD/MMBtu. In daily terms, we observe a cosmetic decline of just over half a percent, however, in the broader perspective of recent weeks, the market shows a slight recovery, growing by 0.29% on a weekly scale and by 0.72% on a monthly scale. The price remains slightly below the resistance at 2.8 USD, clearly limiting the attempt to rebound at the beginning of the last full week of August, but at the same time, it remains above the 14-period average and stays in an upward sequence of higher lows and highs. Despite this local stabilization, the long-term market picture remains strongly bearish. Since the beginning of the year (YTD), the commodity has lost as much as 23.48%, not including strong rollovers of futures contracts, and compared to the same period last year, the price is lower by 1.21%. This testifies to the still strong supply pressure that dominated the market in the first half of 2026. From a technical analysis perspective, the situation on the NATGAS chart remains ambiguous, which heralds a struggle to shape a more permanent bottom. The RSI indicator is at 62 points, which moves us away from the oversold zone and suggests a moderate advantage for buyers in the short term. Confirmation of this is a pro-growth signal on the MACD indicator (bullish crossover). On the other hand, long-term moving averages (SMA) are sending bearish signals, and the current exchange rate is 5.13% below the key 50-day moving average (SMA50). Market sentiment remains neutral. The key resistance for market bulls is the zone around 2.95–3.00 USD, while strong support is located at the 2.65 USD level, the breaking of which could open the way to this year's lows. The fundamentals of the American natural gas market remain under the influence of high stock levels, which, despite an initial clear drop below the 5-year average, may suggest an approach towards 4000 BCF before the start of the heating season. Although summer heatwaves in the USA generated solid demand from the power sector (air conditioning power), it was not sufficient to permanently reduce the excess inventory. A key factor stabilizing prices at current levels is the continued high export of LNG from the USA to Europe and Asia, where geopolitical anxieties in the Middle East force importers to secure alternative supplies. Lack of chances for an early resumption of full supplies from Qatar will mean that demand, primarily from Europe, will remain at a high level in the early autumn, which may stimulate prices to stronger increases than follows from the term structure. At the same time, it should be remembered that the ongoing El Niño phenomenon may cause the start of the heating season in both Europe and North America to be clearly delayed. Forecasts of elevated temperatures may keep gas demand at an elevated level. Simultaneously, maintaining such forecasts in a monthly perspective will mean a delay in the start of the heating season. Source: NOAA Recently, a slowdown in the growth rate of gas inventories was visible. Exactly a year ago, we observed an acceleration in inventory growth at the beginning of the autumn period, which was related to a warm autumn. However, if this growth does not occur, it will be possible to boost prices towards 3.00 USD/MMBTU. Source: EIA Historical Valuation (Z-score) Statistical deviation analysis (Z-score) confirms that natural gas is historically undervalued. Z-score indicators for the annual (Z1Y: -0.87) and two-year (Z2Y: -1.04) periods clearly point to a valuation below the average. From a 5-year perspective (Z5Y), the indicator currently stands at -0.54. Analysis of this indicator's trajectory (currently -0.54, a month ago -0.51, 3 months ago -0.46, 6 months ago -0.59) shows that the deviation from the long-term average has stabilized in a narrow range. Three months ago, the undervaluation was the smallest, after which it slightly deepened, suggesting a lack of a strong impulse return to the average (mean reversion) and prices being trapped in a sideways trend. Natgas is currently oversold relative to all analyzed averages, but this is not extreme overselling that would generate any stronger signal. Source: XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Permanent breakthrough of the 3.00 USD/MMBtu barrier. A necessary condition is a clearly lower growth in gas inventories in several consecutive reports and early forecasts of a cold autumn, as well as maintaining maximum transmission capacities in LNG export terminals while limiting domestic production by key shale producers. Bearish Scenario: Price drop below support at 2.65 USD, opening the way to the 2.50 USD level. The catalyst for such a movement would be a forecast of an exceptionally warm September and October, further inventory growth above historical maximums, and possible technical downtime in key export terminals on the Gulf Coast. Cocoa The cocoa price on the New York Stock Exchange currently stands at 5915.0 USD per ton, after noting a drop in the first session of this week at a level of less than 1%. On a weekly scale, the market moves in a sideways trend (-0.02%), however, in the monthly horizon, a strong demand pressure is visible, which translated into an 11.02% increase. The movement result since the beginning of the year (YTD) came out at a slight plus (+0.44%), which is a signal of stabilization after the gigantic turbulence of last year. In year-on-year terms, the cocoa price is still 22.30% lower. This shows that after last year's speculative bubble burst, the market is looking for a new point of equilibrium, just before the start of the new harvest season, about which there is still a lot of uncertainty, while being after a season in which harvests were very high (particularly in its first phase). Technical indicators for the cocoa market present a mixed picture, reflecting a consolidation phase with elevated volatility. The RSI indicator at 45 points indicates neutral market conditions, giving space for movement in both directions. Moving averages (SMA) generate growth (bullish) signals, and the current price is as much as 9.33% above the 50-day moving average (SMA50), which confirms the strength of the medium-term upward trend started last month. In turn, the MACD indicator generated a sell (bearish) signal, suggesting a risk of a short-term downward correction. General technical sentiment remains neutral, with key resistance at the 6150-6200 USD level and support in the region of 5600 USD. Behind the latest monthly price rally are primarily concerns about harvest sizes in the coming 2026/2027 season in West Africa (Ivory Coast and Ghana account for nearly 60% of global supply). It is indicated that tree diseases, expensive fertilizers, and a further reduction in prices paid to farmers may influence production limitation in the upcoming season, although at the same time, the spread of forecasts is quite large. To a large extent, this may depend on weather conditions, which during periods of strong El Niño were not very good. Additionally, rigorous European Union regulations concerning deforestation (EUDR) force importers to seek certified raw materials, which drives up physical cocoa prices on the European market. From a demand perspective, high prices are starting however to slowly limit global consumer demand for chocolate, which is confirmed by data on lower cocoa grinding in Europe and North America. Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score indicators show interesting dynamics. The annual Z-score is +0.64, the two-year Z2Y: -0.45, and the five-year Z5Y ranks at +0.30. The trajectory of the 5-year deviation is key here: it currently stands at +0.30, whereas a month ago it was +0.12, three months ago -0.38, and half a year ago -0.43. We thus see a clear trend: overvaluation is mounting. Cocoa has emerged from the zone of historical undervaluation and is dynamically climbing relative to long-term averages. This is a strong warning signal for buyers at the peaks. Cocoa is no longer overbought relative to the 3-month average, and simultaneously deviations from other long-term averages indicate growing upward potential. Source: XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Exchange rate return above the 6200 USD boundary with a target at 6500 USD per ton. Such a development will occur in the case of reports returning of drought caused by weather phenomena in West Africa or a sudden drop in harvest estimates (given by ICCO) for the coming season. Bearish Scenario: Support break at the 5600 USD level and drop towards 5200 USD. The condition is the realization of an optimistic weather scenario in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which would translate into higher than expected port arrivals and a further drop in demand from global confectionery concerns. Gold The gold price continues its spectacular march north, reaching a staggering level of 4640.57 USD per ounce. Although today's session brought a symbolic pullback, which may be treated as profit-taking, in weekly terms the bullion gained over 2.5%, and on the scale of the last month, it became more expensive by an impressive nearly 14%. The rate of return since the beginning of the year stands at a solid +7.14%, whereas in the twelve-month horizon, gold became more expensive by as much as 36.75%. Although these numbers indicate a continuation of the bull market, prices still remain approx. 1000 USD lower compared to historical peaks. From a technical point of view, the gold market shows signs of extreme overbought conditions, which warrants caution. The RSI indicator soared to 76 points, which is a clear warning signal before a potential correction. Interestingly, long-term moving averages (SMA) give a bearish signal (probably due to the very dynamic, parabolic price departure from historical averages), while the spot price stands as much as 10.90% above the 50-day moving average (SMA50). The MACD indicator maintains a strong buy (bullish) signal. Technical sentiment remains neutral, reflecting the market split between strong upward momentum and the technical need to cool down the indicators. The key resistance is the psychological barrier of 4700 USD, and support is marked by the 4500 USD level. The main driver behind such strong increases in gold prices is the change in investor attitude regarding the situation in the Middle East, which in the longer term may cause an inflation problem. Institutional investors and central banks are mass-escaping towards safe-haven assets. Additionally, sentiments on the gold market are supported by growing concerns about USA fiscal stability. Famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized the US Treasury buyback program, calling it a "mistake" costing a loss of credibility, which strengthened the narrative about the necessity of owning hard assets in the face of a potential debt crisis. Stable demand from central banks of emerging markets, aiming for de-dollarization of their reserves, constitutes an additional, hard foundation supporting high valuations of the bullion. Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score analysis indicates extreme historical overvaluation of the bullion. The annual Z-score is +0.54, the two-year +1.17, and the five-year (Z5Y) reaches as much as +1.96. Looking at the Z5Y trajectory (now: +1.96, 1M ago: +1.45, 3M ago: +2.14, 6M ago: +3.45), we see that the extreme overvaluation from six months ago underwent partial normalization, however, the latest monthly rally by 13% again pushed the indicator up (from +1.45 to +1.96). This means that upward deviation is mounting again, which increases the risk of correction, although historically it still remains low compared to extremely high levels of the last 2 years. Looking at moving averages and rolling deviations, gold is not overbought in the longer term, whereas short-term overbought conditions may occur soon. Source: XTB Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Breakthrough of the 4700 USD level and movement towards 4850 USD. Such a scenario will materialize if the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz undergoes further escalation (e.g., direct strikes on oil infrastructure) and American bond yields start falling sharply in the face of worsening macroeconomic data in the USA. Bearish Scenario: Deep corrective realization below support 4500 USD, with a target at the 4380 USD level (SMA50 vicinity). The condition is the signing of an armistice or working out a diplomatic solution to the crisis with Iran, which would lead to a sudden outflow of capital from ETF funds based on gold back to the stock and bond market. Oil The WTI oil price (OIL.WTI) oscillates around the level of 84.5 USD per barrel, noting a moderate decline during today's session, although during the Asian session the decline was nearly 1%. On a weekly scale the price is almost flat (-0.24%), while in monthly terms the commodity gained 2.80%. Looking from a broader perspective, WTI oil is having a sensational year. Since the beginning of January (YTD) it became more expensive by 47.01%, and compared to last year the price is 33.03% higher. These impressive rates of return show how deeply the oil market was reformatted by geopolitical events in 2026. The technical situation on the WTI oil chart indicates a strong upward trend, which however starts to encounter a supply barrier. The RSI indicator at the level of 72 points signals an overbought state of the market, which increases the probability of a local downward correction. Moving averages (SMA) give a neutral signal, however the spot price stands 7.06% above the 50-day moving average (SMA50), which confirms the strong structure of the market. The MACD indicator generates a buy (bullish) signal. Technical sentiment is described as neutral. The key resistance for the price remains the psychological barrier of 85.00 USD (and recent local peaks in the region of 86.00 USD), while the main support is at the 81.50 USD level. The crude oil market is continuously dependent only and exclusively on the situation in the Middle East, ignoring for the most part supply signals from the rest of the world. The USA administration has just launched "Operation Economic Outcast", which is the heaviest sanctions campaign in history aimed at Iran, not excluding China from the sanctions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent termed it an "economic D-Day". Parallelly, a crisis is ongoing around the Strait of Hormuz, through which normally flows nearly 20 million barrels of oil daily. Additionally, the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan informed about planned maintenance works, which will lower production on the gigantic Karachaganak field by 400–450 thousand tons, which will even further tighten the physical market. As reported by Bloomberg, markets exhibit an incredible ability to adapt to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (among others through alternative pipeline routes in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and increased freight from other regions, e.g. Basra in Iraq). Technically we are dealing with a reaction to a strong supply zone in the vicinity of the downward trend line and the level of 85 USD per barrel. However, it should be remembered that despite the market stabilization through releasing reserves, the fuel market remains strongly tense. Source: xStation5 Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score analysis for WTI oil indicates moderate overvaluation relative to historical averages. The annual Z-score is +0.60, the two-year +1.07, and the five-year (Z5Y) is shaped at the level of +0.46. Analysis of the Z5Y trajectory (currently: +0.46, 1M ago: +0.91, 3M ago: +0.92, 6M ago: -0.85) provides key conclusions: deviation is decreasing. After a strong growth in valuation 3-6 months ago, when the Z-score jumped from deeply negative (-0.85) to strongly positive (+0.92), we currently observe stabilization and return towards the average (+0.46). This suggests that despite high nominal prices, the market has "tamed" these levels and the risk of a sudden bubble burst is smaller than a quarter ago. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Return above 86.00 USD and rally towards 90.00 USD per barrel. The condition is the hard enforcement of USA sanctions against Chinese entities buying Iranian oil, which would realistically eliminate approx. 1 million barrels daily from the market, with simultaneously no production increase by OPEC+. Bearish Scenario: Breakthrough of support at the 81.50 USD level and drop towards 78.00 USD. This scenario will materialize if concerns about global recession (weak PMI data from Europe and China) take precedence over geopolitics, and American shale producers sharply increase production, benefiting from high spot prices.

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Forex Trading

August 25, 2026

Chart of the Day: EURUSD Under Pressure from the Dollar. Bessent, PCE and Jackson Hole to Determine the Next Direction

Tuesday’s EURUSD session is seeing the dollar strengthen slightly, but the situation in the foreign exchange market remains much more complicated than it was just a few days ago. The euro-dollar pair has pulled back from around 1.17, but a number of developments are emerging in the background that could have a much greater impact on the US currency over the coming weeks. One of the most important issues is the activity of the US Treasury Department, led by Scott Bessent, in the bond market. The Treasury has decided to double the size of its quarterly buyback operations for longer-term bonds. At the same time, Bessent announced that the regular schedule of US debt auctions would remain unchanged. The first larger operations are expected to begin in September. Bessent’s actions could become one of the most important themes for the dollar. The Treasury is attempting to reduce pressure on long-term yields, while the US bond market continues to grapple with high debt levels, substantial borrowing needs and elevated debt-servicing costs. At the same time, tomorrow we will receive the latest US PCE inflation data, the consumer inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve. The market currently expects core PCE inflation to remain around 3.3% year over year, unchanged from June. In Europe, meanwhile, today’s German data attracted attention. Gross domestic product rose by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the second quarter, stronger than the previous estimate had indicated. All of this leaves EURUSD at a particularly interesting juncture. On the dollar side, there is short-term support coming from high bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty, but there are also growing questions surrounding US Treasury policy and the situation in the debt market. On the euro side, the picture of the German economy has improved somewhat, while expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy from the European Central Bank remain in place. Source: xStation5 Factors currently shaping EURUSD Scott Bessent is becoming increasingly important for the dollar market In recent days, the US bond market has become one of the most important themes in financial markets. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds had previously risen to its highest level since 2007. In response, the Treasury Department decided to increase the scale of its buyback operations for longer-term debt. Bessent is seeking to improve market liquidity and reduce pressure on the long end of the yield curve. At the same time, the Treasury does not intend to reduce regular bond auctions, which is significant given that the US government still requires enormous amounts of financing. This is particularly interesting from the perspective of EURUSD. The Treasury’s actions show that high bond yields have become a sufficiently serious issue for US authorities to actively attempt to influence market functioning. This does not mean, of course, that Treasury bond buybacks are equivalent to the quantitative easing conducted by the Federal Reserve. These are operations related to debt management and market liquidity. Their significance lies in the fact that they demonstrate the growing sensitivity of the US administration to the level of long-term yields. If investors conclude that the Treasury’s actions are effective, yields could decline and pressure on the dollar could increase. If, however, the market decides that buybacks do not solve the problem of high debt levels and enormous US borrowing needs, long-term yields could move higher again. Markets await US PCE inflation data Another major event will be Wednesday’s release of PCE inflation data from the United States. In June, core PCE inflation stood at 3.3% year over year, compared with 3.4% in May. Current market expectations point to the figure remaining around 3.3% in July. Such a reading would not be a major surprise, but it would also mean that inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This is important because the market currently has to reconcile two different signals coming from the US economy. On the one hand, weaker labor market data have reduced expectations for further monetary tightening. On the other hand, inflation has still not returned to a level that would allow the Federal Reserve to focus entirely on supporting the labor market. If PCE comes in below expectations, US Treasury yields could come under pressure and the dollar could lose some of its strength again. For EURUSD, this would be a positive signal. A stronger-than-expected reading would have the opposite effect. In such a scenario, markets could once again price in a greater likelihood of interest rates remaining elevated in the US, providing additional support for the dollar. German GDP gives the euro another argument On the euro side, today’s German data were somewhat better than previously expected. German GDP increased by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the second quarter and by 1% year over year. The previous estimate had pointed to quarterly growth of 0.2%. This is not yet evidence of a strong recovery in the German economy. However, the data suggest that the situation is somewhat better than previously assumed. For the euro, this is also important in the context of European Central Bank policy. If the economy of the euro area’s largest country begins to show greater resilience, the arguments for a more cautious approach to interest-rate cuts become stronger. The market still expects the ECB could decide to raise interest rates in September. In addition, the Ifo index is being released today, providing insight into how German companies assess current conditions and the economic outlook. This is another important piece of the puzzle for the euro. The Fed and Treasury are becoming equally important to the market This is currently one of the most interesting aspects of the EURUSD story. Until recently, the main issue for the dollar was the difference between Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy. The situation is now more complicated. Markets must simultaneously assess Federal Reserve policy, the US fiscal situation and the actions of the Treasury Department. High bond yields are a problem for both the US government and the broader economy. On the one hand, they increase the cost of servicing government debt; on the other, they raise financing costs for businesses and households. This is why Bessent’s actions also matter for the foreign exchange market. If the Treasury becomes increasingly active in trying to limit the rise in yields, this could weaken one of the dollar’s important advantages stemming from high interest rates and elevated US Treasury yields. At the same time, the Treasury’s actions are raising more questions about Bessent’s credibility and the effectiveness of the measures being taken. The market initially reacted positively to the news of the buyback operations, but yields subsequently began rising again. This could be an important signal for the dollar. If investors begin to believe that US authorities have limited ability to influence the long end of the yield curve, elevated yields could remain one of the key themes for the US currency. Jackson Hole could be another turning point The list of events that matter for EURUSD does not end there. On Friday, markets will focus on a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. It will be particularly important because investors are looking for clues about the future direction of monetary policy. Warsh faces a difficult balancing act. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, long-term bond yields are high, while the labor market is showing weaker signals. Another issue is the growing importance of fiscal policy and Treasury actions. Markets will therefore pay attention not only to what Warsh says about interest rates, but also to his views on inflation, bond yields and the independence of the Federal Reserve. If Warsh adopts a more hawkish tone, the dollar could receive additional support. If, on the other hand, he signals a greater willingness to ease monetary policy, pressure on the US currency could increase. Key takeaways Scott Bessent’s actions in the US Treasury market are becoming one of the more important themes for the dollar. The Treasury has doubled the size of its quarterly buyback operations for longer-term bonds, increasing the minimum value of each operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. At the same time, the Treasury does not intend to reduce regular debt auctions, highlighting the scale of the US government’s financing needs. Tomorrow, markets will receive the latest PCE inflation data, with core PCE currently expected to remain around 3.3% year over year. A higher-than-expected PCE reading could increase expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated and support the dollar. A weaker-than-expected reading could push bond yields lower again and increase pressure on the dollar. German GDP grew by 0.3% quarter over quarter in the second quarter, stronger than the previous estimate of 0.2%, providing the euro with another fundamental argument. On Friday, markets will focus on Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, which could be crucial for expectations surrounding the future course of Federal Reserve policy. The key question for EURUSD is currently not only what the Federal Reserve will do, but also whether Treasury actions will be able to reduce pressure on the US debt market.

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Markets

August 25, 2026

Nvidia Goes to Space. SpaceX Is Building Satellites Powered by Its Chips

Imagine a moment when a data center is no longer a building somewhere in Texas, but a satellite orbiting hundreds of kilometers above our heads. Sounds like science fiction? Elon Musk apparently believes it can become a business. SpaceX is accelerating its plans to build orbital AI infrastructure. The first satellites are expected to be launched into orbit by late 2027, with the project set to scale up significantly the following year. What is particularly interesting for investors is that Nvidia’s technology is expected to sit at the heart of this system. For investors, the key point is not simply that Nvidia is going into space, but that this is another sign of the market for its technology continuing to expand. Nvidia is increasingly moving beyond the traditional model of primarily selling GPUs for data centers. Vera is expected to become part of a broader infrastructure designed to support AI agents, systems that do more than simply generate responses and can execute entire sequences of tasks. SpaceX is another major customer using this architecture, alongside companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. This reinforces the view that Nvidia is trying to capture as much of the infrastructure spending associated with the next phase of AI development as possible, rather than competing only in the market for individual chips. The satellite project itself, however, needs to be viewed with some caution. At this stage, it is not a development that should change Nvidia’s financial model. The first launch is still ahead of us, while the economics of putting data centers into orbit remain a major question mark. The cost of launching equipment, servicing it, dealing with power and thermal constraints, as well as communication bandwidth, all raise doubts about whether space based data centers can compete with infrastructure built on Earth. For NVDA investors, what matters far more today is the demand for Vera and AI infrastructure as a whole than the potential billions of dollars that orbital data centers could generate several years from now. From a stock market perspective, however, there is one very strong takeaway. If SpaceX actually scales up its demand for computing power, Nvidia is on the right side of that trend. The company does not need to own the satellites to benefit from their development. It simply needs to provide the critical computing infrastructure. That is why this news should primarily be viewed as another signal confirming the breadth of demand for Nvidia’s technology. It does not fundamentally change the company’s valuation, but it strengthens the picture of Nvidia as a supplier of the infrastructure needed to power the entire AI ecosystem, from traditional data centers and AI agents to potential orbital applications in the future. More importantly, this story shows why the market is paying such close attention to Nvidia’s next moves. Investors are no longer looking only at how many chips the company will sell next quarter. Increasingly, the question is how many new applications for AI infrastructure can emerge over the coming years and how much of that spending will flow to Nvidia. If SpaceX continues to scale the project, it will be another example of AI development generating demand for computing power in an entirely new segment. At this stage, it is difficult to talk about any meaningful impact on Nvidia’s revenue, but from a long term perspective, it is another piece of the puzzle. For Nvidia shareholders, this primarily means another strong long term catalyst remains in place. The obvious risks are still the company’s valuation and the question of how long spending on AI infrastructure can continue growing at its current pace. Today’s SpaceX news does not answer those questions, but it does highlight something important: the market for AI applications is still expanding, and Nvidia continues to position its products across new segments. And that, rather than the simple fact that its chips may be sent into space, is the most important takeaway for investors. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 25, 2026

Strong Crypto, Weaker Nasdaq and Another Chapter in the US–Canada Trade War

Stock Market Yesterday's session on Wall Street ended on a mixed note, with the Dow Jones being the only major U.S. index to stay in the green, closing up nearly 0.3%. The remaining flagship indices suffered losses, as the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the session down 0.8%. Sharp sell-offs hit the semiconductor and memory chip sectors, where Nvidia, Intel, and AMD each dropped nearly 3%, while Micron and Sandisk lost about 6%. Pressure on the tech sector comes just two days before Nvidia's quarterly earnings release, which will serve as a pivotal test for sustaining high expectations around AI-related companies. Asian stock markets initially opened lower, tracking weak sentiment from Wall Street and pressure on the tech sector. During trading, several Asian markets managed to erase losses, bringing the Japanese Nikkei into positive territory, while the South Korean KOSPI almost completely erased earlier declines, and the Australian ASX 200 gained. Initial market pressure significantly faded, though stock exchanges in Hong Kong, India, and parts of Southeast Asia remained weaker. Geopolitics and Trade Policy Donald Trump is sharply escalating the trade war with Canada following the collapse of trade negotiations, targeting Prime Minister Mark Carney and suggesting that Canada needs to "get in line." The heaviest hit is projected to be a 50% tariff on Canadian cars, trucks, and auto parts starting January 1, 2027. This move could severely damage the Canadian automotive industry, while simultaneously raising production costs in the U.S. due to highly integrated supply chains. Canada is promising a tough response, with Prime Minister Carney declaring retaliatory tariffs. Doug Ford suggested Ottawa could leverage energy and critical raw material exports as bargaining power, including electricity, nickel, uranium, and potash. This escalates the risk of further friction between two deeply interconnected economies and places strain on businesses and consumers on both sides of the border. The U.S. is launching a broad campaign aimed at severing Iran from the global financial system, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing sanctions targeting oil trade, shipping, gold, technology, aviation, and cryptocurrencies. Bessent warned that countries conducting business with Iran risk being subjected to U.S. sanctions themselves, emphasizing that no one, including China, is off-limits. Washington has held off on secondary sanctions against major Chinese banks for now, offering Iran's partners time to scale back cooperation, as China remains a key buyer of Iranian crude. The U.S. goal is to choke off Tehran's primary revenue sources and force economic isolation, which concurrently increases the risk of oil market friction and deteriorating U.S.-China relations. Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy RBA minutes reveal that the August decision to hold interest rates at 4.35% was no mere formality. Members of Australia's central bank actively debated a preemptive 25 bps rate hike, citing persistently elevated inflation and the risk of re-acceleration. Ultimately, the argument prevailed that past tightening is sufficiently cooling the economy, while a weaker labor market and signs of a slowdown give the RBA time to monitor incoming data, though the door remains open for a future rate hike. Japan is considering tax incentives for retail investors buying Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to increase domestic household participation in funding sovereign debt. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that program specifics are yet to be finalized, but the core objective is encouraging households to step up engagement in the Japanese bond market. Commodities and Precious Metals Precious metals face downward pressure, causing gold prices to dip slightly and slide back below the $4,700 level. Silver experienced a sharper pullback than gold, declining by around 1.3% and breaking below $68. Cryptocurrencies Significantly stronger sentiment is taking hold across the digital asset space, showcasing a distinct rebound in crypto markets. Bitcoin broke above the $80,000 mark for the first time in three months, validating an improvement in risk appetite and a return of market demand. Ethereum continues its upward momentum, with prices currently testing the $2,950 level.

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Markets

August 25, 2026

Iron Ore Gains on China Demand Hopes

Iron ore futures rose toward CNY 720 per ton, moving further away from 14-month lows on hopes for stronger demand in top consumer China ahead of the September peak construction season, while Beijing signaled fresh policy support. Markets are anticipating restocking ahead of the seasonal peak in steel demand as construction activity picks up before winter. China will also introduce a new package of measures to expand domestic demand and support economic growth, according to Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. Additionally, China’s National Development and Reform Commission reportedly held consecutive meetings last week urging local governments to accelerate the construction of major projects. Meanwhile, industry data showed that blast furnace operating rates at Chinese steel mills increased last week, signaling firmer demand for iron ore.

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Energies

August 25, 2026

US Natgas Prices Decline

US natural gas prices fell to around $2.74/MMBtu on Tuesday, retreating after a two-day advance as strong production, ample inventories, and weaker LNG feedgas demand weighed on the market. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 111.5 bcfd in August so far, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, adding to supply pressure as gas inventories are 6.7% above their five-year seasonal average. At the same time, gas flows to the nine major LNG export facilities eased to 17.1 bcfd so far this month from 17.2 bcfd in July, leaving more supply available to the domestic market. Reports showed Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG plant in Texas continued to record lower natural gas intake on Monday, indicating that maintenance work is still ongoing. Meanwhile, weather forecasts turned slightly cooler than previously expected, although above-average temperatures are still forecast across Texas and the Southwest through September 7, keeping demand for cooling elevated.

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Markets

August 25, 2026

Gold moves away from multi‑month top as Fed rate fears and Middle East jitters support USD

Gold attracts some sellers following an intraday rise to a fresh multi-month high on Tuesday. Fed rate-hike bets amid inflation risk and the Middle East crisis underpin the safe-haven USD. Traders now look to the US PCE data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech for fresh impetus. Gold (XAU/USD) faces rejection ahead of the $4,700 mark on Tuesday and witnessed an intraday turnaround from its highest level since May 14, touched during the Asian session. Despite tamer July US inflation data, traders are still pricing in around a 75% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from volatile crude oil prices. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) build on its recovery from a three-month low, prompting some profit-taking around the precious metal. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Monday that the US is launching a campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy. Bessent also warned that any country conducting business with Iran risks facing US sanctions. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, had said that the Islamic Republic would halt all oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and anywhere else in the Persian Gulf if economic war continues. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the Greenback. Meanwhile, the initial downward push on US bond yields following the Treasury Department's expanded buyback strategy was short-lived amid concerns over the growing US national debt, which crossed $40 trillion. This has revived the so-called "debasement trade", which might continue to underpin demand for bullion as an alternative store of value. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bullish bets on the USD and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path amid shifting expectations toward an on-hold decision at the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Wednesday. Adding to this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday will be scrutinized for more interest rate cues, which, in turn, will influence the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the XAU/USD pair has topped out and positioning for a further depreciation. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The recent breakout through a confluence hurdle near the $4,500 psychological mark – comprising a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June decline – favors XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive above the zero line, hinting that buying pressure is still dominant even as conditions look stretched. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in overbought territory near 71 and fails to assist the Gold price in building on intraday gains beyond the 50% retracement level. Nevertheless, momentum indicators remain constructive, suggesting that any corrective slide is more likely to be bought into and remain limited. Initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% retracement confluence, ahead of $4,500, while a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% Fibo. level around $4,294 as a more distant floor. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement around $4,680.86, with additional hurdles at the 61.8% retracement near $4,853.70 and then the 78.6% level at about $5,099.77 ahead of the prior swing high around $5,413.22.

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Markets

August 25, 2026

XAG/USD corrects below $68 in countdown to US PCE Inflation data

Silver price declines to near $67.87 amid caution ahead of the US PCE Inflation data for July. The US core PCE Inflation is seen remaining steady at 3.4% YoY. Investors also await the outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.6% to near $67.87 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal is under pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to the US core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook. Fed’s preferred gauge seen staying in strike zone as US spending cools According to TD Securities, July’s inflation data should keep the Fed’s preferred gauge comfortably aligned with its objectives, with analysts expecting that "core PCE inflation is expected to hit the Fed's strike zone for a second consecutive report in July, despite picking up to 0.24% m/m." They anticipate that "headline prices likely rose by a tamer 0.15%," while stressing that "more importantly, we expect the market-based core PCE to stay contained at 0.13% m/m." On the activity side, TD highlights that "weak retail sales data point to slowing in consumer spending to 0.2% m/m in July and a softer 0.1% in real terms," and, looking further ahead, notes that "we look for gradual disinflation to resume in 2027." According to the FX Economic Calendar, the annualized core PCE inflation is expected to have grown at a steady pace of 3.4%. Higher inflationary pressures prompt fears of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Such a scenario bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver. This week, the major trigger for the Silver price will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at theJackson Hole Symposium on Thursday. Historically, Warsh is known to avoid providing “forward guidance” on interest rates, but will likely warn of upside inflation risks. Silver Technical Analysis XAG/USD trades at around $67.87, maintaining a bullish near-term tone as price holds decisively above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $64.64. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 61.7, staying in positive territory and suggesting that upside momentum remains constructive even after the latest consolidation. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $64.64 area where the 20-day EMA aligns as the first significant demand zone, with any deeper pullback likely viewed as corrective while price holds above this moving average. On the upside, the white metal needs to break above the August 21 high near $70 to extend the rally towards the June 15 high at $71.33, followed by the June high at 77.00.

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Energies

August 25, 2026

Heating Oil Holds Losses

US heating oil futures traded around $4.28 per gallon, holding most of their losses from the previous session, as markets assessed intensified US economic pressure on Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration announced plans to impose secondary sanctions on entities facilitating Iran’s economy as part of a new campaign dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US was targeting Iran’s financial connections globally and urging other countries to cease economic ties with Tehran. Still, markets remain uncertain whether the measures will ease Iran’s grip on the key waterway or instead prolong disruptions. Meanwhile, elevated diesel refining margins and low US distillate inventories highlighted persistent tightness in refined-product markets, with stocks around 12–13% below the five-year average ahead of the fall maintenance and winter heating season.

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Energies

August 25, 2026

Gasoline Holds Decline

US gasoline futures traded around $3.27 per gallon, holding onto their previous-session losses as investors weighed intensified US economic pressure on Iran. The Trump administration announced plans to impose secondary sanctions on entities facilitating Iran’s economy as part of a new campaign dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US was targeting Iran’s financial connections globally and urging other countries to cease economic ties with Tehran. Still, markets remain uncertain whether the measures will ease Iran’s control of the key waterway or instead prolong disruptions. On the demand side, China’s top refiner Sinopec reported that gasoline consumption fell 8% in the first half of 2026, as higher prices and growing electric-vehicle adoption weighed on demand. Meanwhile, US refineries have been running above 95% capacity for more than 11 weeks, the longest sustained stretch in over 25 years.

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Forex Trading

August 25, 2026

Dollar Steadies as US Tightens Iran Sanctions

The dollar index steadied near 99 on Tuesday after gaining some ground in the previous session, supported by safe-haven demand as the US moved to cut Iran off from the global financial system, highlighting the greenback’s central role in international trade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans on Monday to isolate Iran through sanctions targeting countries doing business with the Islamic Republic. Still, the dollar remained near three-month lows as the Treasury Department announced an expansion of its buyback program for long-dated government debt in an effort to contain rising borrowing costs. However, markets speculated that the plan may offer only a temporary solution, while renewing concerns over the risks of a US debt crisis and dollar weakness. Elsewhere, investors looked ahead to the latest US PCE price index data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium this week for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook.

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Energies

August 25, 2026

European Natural Gas Holds Gain

European natural gas prices held above €68/MWh, the highest level since January 2023, as fresh US measures against Iran intensified concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. The US Treasury said expanded secondary sanctions would target Iran’s digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping sectors. It also imposed new sanctions on nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels allegedly involved in generating oil revenues for Iran, procuring weapons, and supporting cyber operations. These developments have added to already elevated supply risks in Europe, where the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has constrained LNG deliveries from Qatar. The disruption has coincided with stronger cooling demand amid persistent heatwaves, making it more difficult for Europe to rebuild gas inventories and heightening fears that the region could enter the winter heating season with insufficient supplies.

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Cryptocurrencies

August 25, 2026

Bitcoin Surges Above $80,000

Bitcoin surged above $80,000 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since May and bringing its gains since mid-August to about 28%. The move was fueled by a series of positive signals, including renewed interest in the “debasement trade” after the US Treasury announced plans to increase purchases of longer-dated government bonds, weighing on long-term yields and the dollar. US spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded their strongest weekly inflows in 10 months, attracting $1.92 billion, while expectations of continued support for cryptocurrency from the Trump administration added to demand. The advance triggered a major short squeeze, with about $7.2 billion in leveraged bearish crypto positions liquidated last week. Despite the rebound, Bitcoin remains well below its record high of around $126,000 reached last October, while analysts caution that the move may be driven largely by short covering rather than sustained demand.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

US-Canada trade conflict escalates

It is no longer an exaggeration to say that trade and diplomatic relations between the United States and Canada have reached their most serious deadlock since the USMCA entered into force. USDCAD Chart (D1) USDCAD expierenced increase of aprox. 0,3% on the news, although its worth pointing out that the pair was already over-sold in terms of RSI. Source: xStation5 After negotiations collapsed, the US administration imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods worth around USD 20 billion per year. Ottawa suspended the talks and announced proportional retaliation starting on 8 September. The new US tariffs cover, among other things, wine, dairy, furniture, cement, clothing, fishing and hockey equipment. The United States already applies 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, tariffs on cars and components that do not contain a sufficient share of US production, as well as duties on construction lumber and some interior furnishings. Unlike earlier restrictions, these measures also apply to goods that meet USMCA rules. However, energy, potash, certain strategically important raw materials, civil aircraft, and products already covered by separate sector-specific tariffs have been excluded. In this context, the question naturally arises: what exactly is the US trying to achieve by completely unprovoked and seemingly pointless antagonizing of Canada, a country on which the US, despite the huge imbalance, still has local but very serious dependencies. Canada is preparing its response Retaliatory tariffs are expected to target, among other things, US steel, dairy products, agricultural machinery, home appliances, electronics, and paper goods. The government in Ottawa also maintains 25% retaliatory tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and cars, covering imports worth as much as CAD 51.4 billion. Negotiators were close to a partial agreement as recently as last week. However, the talks broke down over technical and political issues.The parties could not agree on how to calculate the share of US components in vehicles or on restrictions related to dairy. The parties could not agree on how to calculate the share of US components in vehicles or on restrictions related to dairy. Although the talks focused mainly on trade and economic issues, it is hard to ignore demands that quite clearly undermine Canadian sovereignty. The US demanded veto rights over future trade agreements signed by Canada and demanded the removal of French as an official language in Quebec. The stakes are high The value of bilateral trade in goods and services in 2025 was about USD 872 billion. The US exported about USD 426 billion in goods and services to Canada, importing about USD 446 billion. The dependence remains clearly asymmetric. The United States accounts for more than two thirds of Canadian exports. For the US, Canada is the largest or one of the largest trading partners, but exports to Canada amount to only about 1.5% of the American economy. Energy is the exception. Canada supplies about 63% of the oil imported by the United States. Excluding energy from the new tariffs shows that Washington wants to increase pressure on Ottawa without destabilizing its own refineries and fuel prices. The most dangerous precedent, aside from the attempt to deprive Canada of sovereignty, is not the value of the new tariffs itself, but the gradual weakening of the USMCA. The agreement is the foundation of trade across the continent and one of the few remaining reasons why Canada and Mexico trade more with the US than, for example, with China. This trend is reverse for US - which due to its trade wars was forced to buy more and more from outside China. Analytical centers estimate that if the conflict expands to cover most trade, Canada could lose 1–4% of GDP, depending on the scale of the restrictions. Both sides have reasons to compromise Pressure on Canada is economic in nature, but an unjustified trade war with its closest trading partner and the ostentatious support for separatists in the province of Alberta has triggered a wave of public support for the Canadian government. In the US, the situation is the opposite. Canada’s impact on the US economy is very small, but trade tensions will hit companies in border states the hardest. It is in Pennsylvania, Maine, Massachusetts, and Ohio that Republicans face the biggest challenges ahead of the upcoming elections. Undecided voters in this area may choose to show the Donald Trump government a red card.

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Energies

August 24, 2026

European gas continues to climb

NATGAS.EU up more than 3% European gas contracts are rising by nearly 3% in Monday’s session, while US gas is up just under 1%. This is due to specific factors currently affecting Europe, which is dependent on gas imports. Technical analysis of NATGAS.EU (D1) On the chart, the price can be seen approaching the upper boundary of a narrowing upward trend. If resistance is broken, there is a significant probability that the uptrend will continue. In that scenario, the most clearly defined resistance zone is a broad range between approximately 76 and 81 euros. For sellers, support lies primarily at the lower boundary of the trend and at the level of the most recent peaks, around 64 euros. Source: xStation5 Supply tensions triggered by the conflict in the Persian Gulf have been a known factor for many months. Today’s noticeable, though not yet panic-driven, price increase may have been prompted by Goldman Sachs publications. The investment firm points mainly to relatively low storage levels in Europe. As of today, Reuters reports average storage at only 62%, versus 74% a year ago. Goldman analysts note that, given low inventories, competition for supplies from Asia, and the risk of a harsh winter, prices could rise significantly even from current levels. European Commission representatives are trying to reassure markets, stating that “there is currently no direct threat to supplies.”

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Will Jackson Hole be a turning point for the dollar?

Last week was dominated by debt market events. On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of the bond buyback programme, known as the liquidity support buyback. The programme primarily concerns the long end of the curve, i.e., Treasury bonds with longer maturities. The maximum threshold for individual buyback operations will be increased at least twofold (from 2 to 4 billion USD). The intervention occurred as 30-year bond yields rose to 19-year highs (5.33%). The market reaction was swift: 30-year bond yields fell immediately by 10 bps, and the dollar weakened by 0.9% against the reference euro. Figure 1: G10 FX Dashboard [vs. USD] (14.08.2026 - 21.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 24.08.2026 In the following days, the market erased over half of Wednesday's move in the debt market. The dollar, which remains under pressure from fiscal and institutional concerns, was unable to recoup most of the losses. The modest appreciation of the US currency that we observed today and on Friday seems to be mainly the result of a slight increase in market pricing for an interest rate hike in the autumn. Such action could be treated as a balancing tool. The market-implied probability of an upward move in September is currently around 40%. In October, it is slightly more than 60%. US Dollar (USD) Investors will be watching all actions aimed at stabilising the debt market situation very closely in the coming days. We are convinced that this topic will be extensively discussed at one of the most important central banker conferences of the year: the symposium in Jackson Hole. On Friday in the early afternoon, Kevin Warsh will be able to address the entire situation; for him, this event is of critical importance. Why? When Donald Trump nominated Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chair in March, the market labelled him as someone susceptible to influence, ready to opportunistically change his approach to monetary policy to satisfy the US President who was demanding interest rate cuts. While Warsh managed to some extent to detach this label with the June conference, presenting relatively hawkish rhetoric, the repetition of the same messages in July did not meet with enthusiasm. He stuck to his then-decision regarding the lack of forward guidance. He avoided answering questions regarding the legitimacy of a pause, as well as those concerning the current economic situation. That will not be possible this Friday. Warsh has recently been favoured by macroeconomic data that suggested no need for immediate monetary policy tightening. Investors, however, still want to ensure that he has a solid action plan and is independent in his actions. If his statements prove unconvincing again, the dollar may continue the sell-off initiated after the last meeting. Two days before the speech, which is crucial for the further outlook of the dollar, we await the publication of PCE inflation data. The measure, although delayed, has historically been preferred by FOMC policymakers when making monetary policy decisions. The consensus assumes a 0.2% increase on a monthly basis, which is unlikely to raise major concerns. On the same day, after the US market closes, Nvidia's quarterly report will be released. This is a test for the durability of the entire bull market driven by artificial intelligence development. Results worse than the very high expectations would likely lead to a deterioration in risk sentiment, weighing on risky assets, not just in the equity market. In such a situation, the winner, paradoxically, could be the dollar. Euro (EUR) Less is happening on the other side. Stability serves the single currency. An interest rate hike at the September (10.09) meeting remains almost fully priced in, and incoming macroeconomic data continues to generally surprise on the upside. In recent days, we have received the August PMI indicators. The composite index reached its highest level in 9 months, driven by excellent industrial performance (51-month high). A significant improvement in the situation in Germany is noteworthy, aided by growing demand for technology equipment related to artificial intelligence and higher defence spending. In our opinion, the fiscal stimulus programme amounting to 500 billion euros, presented in March 2025 by Friedrich Merz, is of considerable importance in this context. Canadian Dollar (CAD) Figure 2: G10 FX Dashboard [vs. USD] (24.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 24.08.2026 The Canadian currency is experiencing a relatively significant weakening today. Why? Talks regarding a new trade agreement between Washington and Ottawa unexpectedly ended in failure. Negotiations were broken off on Friday, which meant the entry into force of 50% tariffs on Canadian products exported to the US. These will cover goods with a total value of approximately 20-28 billion dollars (5-7% of total Canadian exports to the US). The tariff list includes, among others, timber, cement, furniture, selected dairy products, wine, electrical equipment, and hockey equipment. President Donald Trump firmly defends the decision. On social media, he accused Canada of wanting to reap the benefits of being a state without being one. Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, accuses the US of introducing unfair and economically harmful demands at the last minute, including attempts to limit Canada's ability to conclude trade agreements with other countries. The US side (represented by Jamieson Greer) rejects these accusations, claiming that it was the Canadian negotiators who broke the previously developed compromise with new demands. According to Carney's announcements, Canadian tariffs aimed at US exports of similar value (dollar for dollar, as the Prime Minister himself says) are to come into force on September 8th. They will hit sectors such as steel, agricultural machinery, household appliances, electronics, and dairy products. Incidentally, the selection is not accidental; they are intended to be felt quickly in politically key US states, which may be of particular importance in the face of the fast-approaching midterm elections.

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Forex Trading

August 24, 2026

Trade of the day: AUDNZD

Facts The AUDNZD exchange rate returned today to its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10; yellow). New Zealand retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.5% q/q in real terms in Q2 2026 (Bloomberg consensus: +0.2%). The 10-year government bond yield spread between Australia and New Zealand has widened by 10 bps since August 3. Recommendation Position: Long (BUY) on AUDNZD at market price Take Profit (TP): 1.20750 (TP1), 1.21210 (TP2) Stop Loss (SL): 1.19400 Source: xStation5 Opinion The AUDNZD pair has been trading within a relatively narrow consolidation range (1.1910–1.2120; largely contained within the black Bollinger Bands) since the end of July 2026, after retreating from historical highs in response to the gradual normalization of monetary policy in both economies (the RBA has slowed the pace of rate hikes, while the RBNZ has moderated its rate cuts). Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand presented updated, higher inflation forecasts, which, amid elevated oil prices and the ongoing economic recovery, shifted market expectations towards interest-rate hikes. The OIS market is currently pricing in two full rate hikes in New Zealand by the end of 2026. However, this hawkish stance was tempered by a higher-than-expected rise in unemployment (5.6% vs. 5.4% forecast and 5.4% previously, revised up from 5.3%) and an unexpected decline in real retail sales (-0.5% q/q vs. 0.2% forecast and 0.9% previously) in Q2 2026. The August data flow has pushed the 10-year government bond yield spread between Australia and New Zealand approximately 10 bps higher, providing the pair with fresh fundamental support. The balance between the two central banks' policies supports the continuation of the consolidation range; however, the disappointing New Zealand retail sales data should favor a short-term move towards the upper end of the range. Methodology The recommendation is based on a technical analysis of the AUDNZD chart and a fundamental analysis of the economies discussed (monetary policy in Australia and New Zealand). The direction of the recommendation was determined using moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and expectations regarding monetary policy. The Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were determined using Fibonacci retracement levels and price action (TP1 at the 78.6 Fibonacci level, TP2 at the 100.00 Fibonacci level, and SL slightly below the 23.6 Fibonacci level, at the lower Bollinger Band).

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Euro: Rally vulnerable to reversal against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro (EUR) is softer against the Dollar (USD) after an almost 3% rally from late July, with price action turning defensive. German IFO data and rising political risks, including widening Bund–BTP spreads and French budget talks, are in focus. Technically, EUR/USD remains bullish, with resistance above 1.1700 and support around 1.1580/1.1600. Euro soft after August surge "The EUR is soft and entering Monday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD. Price action is somewhat defensive and notable in the aftermath of the EUR’s impressive near-3% rally from late July, opening up the possibility of a more meaningful reversal." "Fundamental releases have been limited and this week’s highlight will be the German IFO business sentiment figures scheduled for Tuesday. Yield spreads have pulled back slightly, eroding some of the EUR’s support as US Treasury yields have climbed over the past week or so." "Political risk appears to be rising as we note the renewed widening in intra-euro area government bond yields with a blowout in the bundBTP spread. Market participants are eyeing this week’s French budget negotiations as well as polls showing solid potential results for far right candidate Marine Le Pen." "Bullish – the RSI is bullish and hovering around the overbought threshold at 70, pulling back slightly from last week’s peaks around 73." "Recent price action has revealed clear near-term resistance above 1.1700 following a notable break above the 200 day MA (1.1631). We see limited additional resistance ahead of 1.1800 and see near-term support in the 1.1580/1.1600 area. "

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Federal Reserve: Warsh faces a communication test – DBS

DBS Bank strategist Philip Wee argues that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s rejection of forward guidance is amplifying market volatility and complicating the policy mix with the Treasury. He warns that without a clear framework, reduced guidance could be seen less as a return to market price discovery and more as a source of uncertainty for financial conditions and Fed independence. Warsh’s strategy and market volatility "The Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 27-29 is shaping up to be an important test for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, whose rejection of forward guidance has contributed to increased market volatility." "Warsh needs to explain how a Fed without forward guidance intends to anchor expectations, how much tightening the Fed is prepared to tolerate through long-term yields, and the policy boundary between the Fed and the Treasury." "The market needs a coherent policy framework." "Without one, reduced forward guidance risks becoming less a return to market price discovery and more a source of uncertainty." "While Warsh and Bessent need to work together to stabilize financial markets, they must ensure that their efforts do not raise concerns about Fed independence by casting the Treasury as activist and dominant."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

US Dollar: Policy risks keep downside bias – ING

ING’s Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky note the Dollar starts the week soft as markets await US policy signals from the White House. Sanctions on Iran, renewed US-Canada trade tensions and possible fiscal consolidation are in focus, alongside US core PCE and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They see scope for further Dollar long-squeezing and DXY consolidation within a defined range. DXY seen consolidating near recent lows "We made the point last week that we tend to favour a more pro-risk, benign dollar decline than some, but there are many in favour of sharper dollar losses on a return of the 'debasement' trade. That could be tested later today, with US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, announcing a new set of sanctions on Iran. " "With a new chapter in the US-Canada trade war opening up over the weekend, the question will be to what degree the new sanctions on Iran threaten US trade ties with China again, where China remains the largest buyer of Iran's energy imports. Given the febrile mood in the market and positioning, a big re-escalation in the tariff war is probably a dollar negative." "Also, important this week are Wednesday's release of US core PCE inflation for July and Friday afternoon's keynote speech from Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium." "While he is unlikely to shed much/any light on what the Fed will do with monetary policy next month, he will have to double-down on the Fed's inflation-fighting credentials - this after his July press conference triggered a sell-off at the long-end of the Treasury market." "DXY dollar index can probably see further consolidation in a 98.50-99.00 range today, with greater risk seen on the downside."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Euro: Range consolidation against US Dollar as growth gap narrows – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes EUR/USD has retraced half of its drop from above 1.20 to 1.1325 and is now stuck in a range as markets await fresh US data. He highlights that 2026 US growth forecasts have been revised down to 2.1%, while Eurozone forecasts were raised to 0.8%, with relative rates tracking relative growth expectations. Growth and rate differentials steer pair "After retracing 50% of the fall from January’s high above 1.20 to the low at 1.1325, EUR/USD is leaving me humming nursery rhymes – the dollar is neither up nor down, waiting to find out whether soft US July employment and retail sales data will be repeated." "We have already seen US consensus growth forecasts for 2026 revised back down a touch (to 2.1%) and Eurozone forecasts revised up (to 0.8% from 0.5% just a few weeks ago)." "This has told a consistent story since the Spring: Relative rates are tracking relative growth forecasts, and the exchange rate is following." "The bad news is that unless we see US growth expectations deteriorate further, we will see EUR/USD settle into the current range, unless something new comes along."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Trade war escalation threatens recent strength – MUFG

MUFG's Derek Halpenny argues the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) reaction to the new US tariffs on USD 20bn of Canadian exports will hinge on escalation risks rather than the initial measures. CAD has underperformed in G10 after talks broke down, and Halpenny warns that tit-for-tat tariffs and fading support from higher Oil could intensify CAD downside if the dispute remains unresolved. Tariff spiral risk weighs on Canadian Dollar "There was always a risk of a breakdown in negotiations on reaching a deal to avoid a US import tariff on USD 20bn worth of Canada exports, so we are unlikely to see a large sell-off of the Canadian dollar in response to the breakdown, confirmed late on Friday night. However, CAD is the clear underperformer in G10 so far today." "The medium-term FX and broader market response in Canada will be dictated not by this breakdown but by the evidence that this could escalate quickly and end with investors pricing greater economic harm for Canada. By promising to match dollar for dollar that risk of spiral is real." "At this juncture the tariff of 50% on USD 20bn worth of US imports from Canada account for just 5% of Canada’s exports to the US. The tariffs took effect on Saturday morning at 12:01am applying to a range of goods from beer, wine, spirits, milk products and hockey equipment." "Covering the post-covid period, starting in 2022, USD/CAD and the 2-year swap rate spread has moved very tightly together over most of that period and the current 2-year US-CA swap spread suggests USD/CAD has over-extended to the downside and should currently be trading a little above the 1.4000 level, or around 2.0% higher than the spot close on Friday." "A quick retaliation by the US will undoubtedly force PM Carney to follow “dollar for dollar” that could see investor confidence hit more severely. CAD downside risks will intensify the longer there is no resolution to this escalating trade war."

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Cryptocurrencies

August 24, 2026

Bitcoin posts its second-best week since 2021 as Dollar weakens

Bitcoin gained 23.6% in the week to 21 August 2026, its second-best weekly performance since February 2021, according to CoinDesk. Expanded U.S. Treasury bond buybacks pushed yields and the dollar lower, lifting risk assets. Bitcoin gained 23.6% in the week to 21 August Bitcoin gained 23.6% over the five sessions to 21 August 2026, its second-best weekly performance since February 2021, according to CoinDesk's analysis of Glassnode data. Only the rally that followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 was larger. The token climbed from about $62,000 to a high of $79,500, then settled near $77,000. Other trackers put the weekly move slightly higher, at 24.6%, a spread that reflects different snapshot times for the week's open and close. Ether rose 31.3% and outpaced Bitcoin Ether gained 31.3% over the same week, rising from below $1,900 to above $2,520 before easing back under $2,500, according to CoinDesk. The tracker InflowScan recorded a 34.1% gain across the period. Both readings place ether ahead of bitcoin for the week. A Treasury buyback plan pushed yields and the Dollar lower The move followed a change in U.S. debt management. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of Treasury bond buybacks on 19 August 2026, raising the maximum per operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The 30-year Treasury yield had reached 5.337% the previous day, its highest since 2007. Yields and the dollar fell after the announcement, and both moves supported risk assets. The change takes effect on 9 September 2026. CoinDesk reported that crypto had spent several months in a narrow range before the announcement, with volatility at multi-year lows, which left positioning sensitive to any catalyst. Both assets closed above their 200-day moving averages The rally carried bitcoin and ether above their 200-day simple moving averages, according to CoinDesk. That measure tracks an asset's longer-term price trend. CoinDesk also reported that shorter-term averages have started to turn higher, which raises the prospect of a golden cross, the point at which the 50-day average rises above the 200-day average. Traders watch that crossover as a momentum signal. It has not yet occurred for either asset. ETF inflows reached their highest level since October U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drew $1.92 billion over the five trading sessions from 17 to 21 August 2026, and spot ether funds took $697 million, according to SoSoValue data. Both totals were the strongest since October 2025. Outside crypto, CoinDesk reported that the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.9, below its 200-day average of 99.1, while gold rose above $4,600 after a 15% gain over the past month, moving above its own 200-day average of $4,504. CoinDesk tied the move to renewed talk of the "debasement trade", a term for investors shifting into scarce assets such as bitcoin and gold to guard against a loss of purchasing power in fiat currencies caused by rising debt, money creation or persistent inflation. Bitcoin traded at $77,779 on Monday Bitcoin traded at $77,779 on 24 August 2026, up 1.0% over the previous 24 hours and 22.4% over the past seven days, a rolling window that differs from the Monday-to-Friday week (CoinPaprika, 24 August 2026). Its 24-hour trading volume reached $28.6 billion. Bitcoin remains 38.3% below the record of $126,173 it set on 6 October 2025. Ether traded at $2,468, up 29.8% over seven days, and remains 50.1% below its own record of $4,946, set on 24 August 2025.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Gold extends rally as markets await US PCE and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech

Gold extends last week’s strong rally and climbs to its highest level since May 15. Traders await US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech later this week. XAU/USD keeps a bullish technical bias above key daily moving averages, though the RSI signals overbought conditions. Gold (XAU/USD) holds intraday gains at the start of American trading hours on Monday, building on the strong rally seen last week following the US Treasury’s buyback announcement. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,658, up nearly 1.2% on the day at levels last seen on May 15. The Treasury’s decision to increase its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government bonds weighed heavily on the Greenback, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) plunging to a three-month low. Gold received a double boost from the move, benefiting from a weaker USD while also attracting safe-haven demand as investors focused on concerns surrounding US fiscal policy and rising government debt. Strategists at OCBC highlight that “USD debasement has re-emerged as a market theme” after the US Treasury unexpectedly expanded its long-end buyback programme, a move they say signals “discomfort with the recent rise in long-dated yields.” They add that the “resulting unwind of US steepener positions has likely reinforced other debasement trades, including a weaker USD, a rebound in gold and higher US inflation breakevens.” However, long-term US Treasury yields remain elevated despite the buyback announcement, which could put the brakes on Gold’s advance. The 30-year Treasury yield trades around 5.24%, close to its recent 19-year high of 5.33%. Higher yields can weigh on the non-yielding metal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding Gold. The US Dollar is also firmer on Monday after last week’s sharp decline. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.97, up about 0.12% on the day. Market attention now turns to key US event risks later this week, with the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due on Wednesday before Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Investors will watch the PCE report closely to assess whether the recent moderation in inflation is enough for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged again at its September meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 38% probability of a rate hike. Still, energy-driven inflation risks remain in focus as Middle East tensions restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The US is set to unveil fresh “economic D-Day” sanctions on Iran later on Monday, while Tehran says it will use all available bilateral means to counter the measures. Technical analysis: Buyers hold the upper hand as RSI turns overbought XAU/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above both the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA. The metal is advancing within a strong uptrend, supported by a moderately firm Average Directional Index at 33, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 71 has entered overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is stretched but still dominant. A positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces the constructive tone, with the broader structure favoring further gains as long as price stays above the key moving averages and upper Fibonacci supports. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,685, followed by the cycle high anchor near the 100.0% retracement at $4,886. On the downside, first support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $4,528, closely backed by the 200-day SMA at $4,516, forming a nearby demand cluster. Deeper support levels emerge at the 50.0% retracement at $4,417 and the 100-day SMA at $4,379, with additional structural floors at the 38.2% retracement at $4,307 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,170, where buyers would likely attempt to defend the broader bullish trend if a corrective pullback unfolds.

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Australian Dollar: Cooling inflation but carry remains supportive – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) to ease, with headline and trimmed mean inflation drifting lower, in line with softer labor conditions and wage growth. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes and Q2 capex will shape rate expectations, with futures still pricing a 60% chance of one more hike. Haddad sees risks skewed toward an extended pause, but highlights attractive carry and commodity exposure as AUD tailwinds. Inflation eases as RBA seen pausing "Australia CPI inflation seen easing in July (Wednesday). Headline CPI is expected at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.8% in June while trimmed mean CPI is expected at 3.5% y/y vs. 3.6% in June. The monthly CPI is Australia’s primary measure of inflation, but the RBA continues to focus on trimmed mean inflation from the quarterly CPI." "The RBA projects the trimmed mean CPI to edge down to 3.3% y/y by end-December from 3.6% y/y in Q2, consistent with softening labor market conditions and cooling private sector wage growth. "The RBA Minutes of the August meeting (Tuesday) will offer some insights on the likelihood of another hike, while Q2 private capital expenditure data (Thursday) will help shape GDP forecasts ahead of the September 2 release. RBA cash rate futures continue to imply 60% odds of one final 25bps hike by year end to 4.60%." "In our view, the risk is skewed towards a more extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle because policy is already somewhat restrictive. Still, Australia’s attractive carry alongside the country’s strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defense remain key AUD tailwinds."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

CEE FX: Koruna leads as policy diverges – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reviews recent CEE FX performance, noting that the euro’s strength above 1.17 has supported high-beta PLN and HUF, while the Czech koruna has also gained despite its lower beta profile. He highlights the divergence in regional monetary policy, with the CNB expected to tighten further while the MNB remains in an easing cycle and the NBP moves closer to potential rate cuts. As a result, he sees CZK as the strongest near-term performer, supported by a more favourable domestic policy backdrop and its defensive characteristics. Beta support but CNB stands out "The Middle East conflict remains unresolved and oil has moved back above USD 90/bbl, but latest bond market developments have, nevertheless, weakened the dollar. The euro’s resulting rally beyond 1.17 predictably supported high-beta CEE currencies last week." "Both the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint appear to have formed interim bottoms and recovered modestly last week, with EUR-HUF retreating from 365.0 towards 362.0. In other words, beta is still alive and well." "But strikingly, the lower-beta Czech koruna also strengthened once the euro began to appreciate (see chart below). This suggests an additional country-specific driver." "The Czech National Bank (CNB) is the only regional central bank likely to raise rates in coming months – a move already priced in by FRAs – whereas its Polish and Hungarian counterparts remain distinctly less hawkish. NBP Governor Adam Glapiński recently indicated that rate cuts could be near, even if he may soon backtrack on that guidance." "MNB, meanwhile, remains in an easing cycle and is expected to cut by 25bp tomorrow and probably again in September. Pro-inflationary developments may merely pause easing by MNB; but an outright hawkish pivot looks remote." "Overall, the koruna offers the strongest near-term prospects: the global risk backdrop remains vulnerable to reversal, which will favour the low-beta candidate, while domestic monetary policy is comparatively the most supportive."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Hungarian Forint: MNB easing and HUF carry prospects – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu describes Hungary as a constructive story within EMEA, with post-election re-rating and scope for continued MNB easing. Yu notes corporate flows are strong, spreads still compensatory, and argues Hungarian Forint (HUF) can make a stronger case as a carry currency if inflation stays contained, even as power and energy constraints justify caution on duration and fiscal risks. Constructive on HUF and MNB path "Hungary is the first test. Hungary now tests whether easing can continue despite supply and fiscal constraints. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) meets this week after a strong post-election re-rating, including a 200bp drop in the 10y government yield." "Hungary is constructive. We remain bullish on Hungary, although client positioning argues for selectivity. Duration is expensive given fiscal slippage risk, and sovereign flows, while positive, are weaker than in Q1 and Q2." "Given the easing in financial conditions across the Eurozone and the U.S. Treasury’s actions, HUF can make a stronger case for carry status as long as inflation figures remain contained. Clear supply constraints in power and energy justify some caution, but activity is slowing sufficiently for MNB to continue easing." "Corporate flows tell a stronger story, surging to their strongest level in six months. Public-sector institutional reforms are beginning, and markets appear to expect positive spillovers into the private sector. Spreads still offer enough compensation to sustain demand." "Hungary now tests whether easing can continue despite supply and fiscal constraints. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) meets this week after a strong post-election re-rating, including a 200bp drop in the 10y government yield. The full-year deficit remains on track to reach 7.5% of GDP but record monthly surpluses in June and July change the near-term picture."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Canadian Dollar: GDP rebound supports Loonie – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence expect Canada’s Q2 National Accounts to show a sharp rebound in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, driven by stronger exports and solid services activity. They forecast expenditure-based GDP at 3.5% annualized and industry-level GDP up 0.3% m/m, with July flash data likely keeping Q3 GDP above potential output, reinforcing a constructive backdrop for the Canadian Dollar. Exports seen driving Q2 recovery "Q2 National Accounts provide the main risk event this week, where TD looks for a sharp rebound from the Q4/Q1 slowdown with expenditure-based growth of 3.5% (market: 3.3%) on stronger exports." "We look for expenditure-based GDP to post a sharp rebound in Q2 with annualized growth of 3.5%, underpinned by stronger exports." "Industry-level GDP for June should mirror the Q2 strength with a 0.3% m/m increase, above flash estimates for a 0.2% print." "We also look for new flash estimates to show continued momentum into July to leave Q3 GDP tracking above potential output." "Thursday's payroll employment report will provide a final look into June growth conditions when released Thursday alongside the current account balance for Q2."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

US Dollar: Debasement narrative caps upside – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the US Treasury’s expanded long-end buyback programme has revived market fears of Dollar debasement, driving a weaker USD, stronger Gold and higher breakevens. They stress this is not classic QE, but highlight rising US policy uncertainty, questions over Fed independence and Jackson Hole risks as key constraints on the Dollar outlook. Debasement fears weigh on Dollar "USD debasement has re-emerged as a market theme after the US Treasury unexpectedly expanded its long-end buyback programme, signalling discomfort with the recent rise in long-dated yields." "The resulting unwind of US steepener positions has likely reinforced other debasement trades, including a weaker USD, a rebound in gold and higher US inflation breakevens." "Several factors help explain why the buyback announcement has reignited debasement concerns. However, the view that larger buybacks amount to quantitative easing appears misplaced. The Treasury is purchasing longer-dated bonds while effectively funding the operation through increased Treasury bill issuance, rather than expanding the money supply." "Second, investors appear increasingly uneasy with what they see as a more activist Treasury. The timing of the buyback announcement, together with the earlier intervention in EURJPY, departs from the Treasury's long-standing commitment to a "regular and predictable" approach. Rising concerns over US policy uncertainty are typically USDnegative" "Third, markets are questioning whether the Fed could face pressure to keep rates lower than otherwise warranted in order to contain government financing costs, rather than focusing solely on inflation and employment objectives. Uncertainty around the Fed's reaction function and growing doubts about its willingness to prioritise inflation have sharpened focus on Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. The USD could face further downside if Chair Warsh and other Fed officials fail to push back against growing debasement concerns." "Renewed policy uncertainty is constraining the scope for USD gains and puts our moderately constructive USD view over the next one to two quarters at risk. That said, rising real yields, driven by AI-related investment demand competing with heavy government borrowing, remain consistent with a resilient US economy. This should limit the risk of an overly dovish Fed and help contain USD downside. For now, we prefer to remain neutral on the USD rather than chase the latest bout of USD weakness."

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Banks

August 24, 2026

Gold: Breakout sustains upward momentum – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts highlight that Gold has broken out of a small base formation, reclaimed its 200‑DMA and is enjoying an extended rebound. The move is framed within broader Dollar debasement concerns and rising term premium. The bank flags successive upside hurdles at $4,730/$4,770 and the April peak at $4,890, with the 200‑DMA near $4,510 seen as key support. Key hurdles and moving average "Gold broke out of a small base formation earlier this month and has now reclaimed the 200-DMA, resulting in an extended rebound." "A cross above this longer-term moving average denotes a resurgence of upward momentum." "Defence of the moving average, now near $4,510, will be crucial for the persistence of this phase of rebound." "For Gold, the next potential hurdles could be located at $4,730/$4,770 before the April peak at $4,890."

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Forex Trading

August 24, 2026

Chart of the Day: Trump drives the Canadian dollar sell-off

The week has begun with relatively low volatility in the currency market. An exception is the Canadian dollar, which is weakening against the US dollar today by over 0.4%. Figure 1: G10 Currency Dashboard (24.06.2026) Source: XTB Research, 24.08.2026 Where can the reasons for such a move be found? Return of the Trade War Talks regarding a new trade agreement between Washington and Ottawa have unexpectedly failed. Negotiations were broken off on Friday, which resulted in the implementation of 50% tariffs on Canadian products exported to the USA. These will cover goods with a total value of approximately 20-28 billion dollars (5-7% of all Canadian exports to the USA). The tariff list includes timber, cement, furniture, selected dairy products, wine, electrical equipment, and hockey gear, among others. President Donald Trump is firmly defending the decision. On social media, he accused Canada of "wanting to reap the benefits of being a state without being one." Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney accuses the US of introducing unfair and economically harmful demands at the last minute, including attempts to limit Canada's ability to enter into trade agreements with other nations. The American side (represented by Jamieson Greer) rejects these accusations, claiming that it was the Canadian negotiators who broke the previously reached compromise with new demands. Planned Retaliation According to Carney’s announcements, Canadian tariffs aimed at US exports of similar value are to come into force on 8 September ("dollar for dollar," as the Prime Minister himself says). They will hit sectors such as steel, agricultural machinery, household appliances, electronics, and dairy products. Incidentally, the selection is not accidental; they are intended to be felt quickly in politically key US states (which may be of particular importance in view of the fast-approaching midterm elections). Debt, PCE, and Jackson Hole On the dollar side, three elements will attract attention. The first will be the situation in the debt market. The decline in the yield of 30-year US bonds resulting from Treasury Department intervention proved unsustainable. It currently stands at 5.24%, which means it is approx. 6 bps above Thursday's lows. If further statements appear signalling an increased supply of dollars in the market, we should expect further currency depreciation. The second is Wednesday's publication of PCE inflation data. This is a reading significantly lagged relative to the CPI measure, but historically preferred by FOMC policymakers. The publication naturally takes on particular significance in light of the recent valuation change. After Scott Bessent's last failed intervention, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in the autumn has risen. The September hike is priced at approx. 40%. The October one at just over 60%. The third, and perhaps most important, may prove to be the Jackson Hole symposium, which will run from Thursday to Saturday. On Friday, around 11:00 AM, Chair Warsh will take the podium. It seems that a lack of forward guidance is not an option. Markets are expecting clarity; its absence may add to the already significant pressure on the US dollar. The Fed Chair has announced he will treat Jackson Hole as a kind of clean slate. The question is how he intends to write on it. Technical Analysis Figure 2: USDCAD [D1] (31.03.2026 - 24.08.2026) Source: xStation, 24.08.2026 In the medium term, the advantage still lies with the supply side, which is confirmed by the price position below all key moving averages. The 50, 100, and 150 EMA averages, together with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, create a strong resistance zone. The RSI indicator at 37.9 is, however, slowly rising from the oversold zone, which allows room for further upward movement as part of a correction.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Oil prices heading back down?

According to reports from Axios, Friday night saw increased activity in the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 16 million barrels were reportedly transported, representing nearly 80% of the standard volume prior to the outbreak of the war. Movement was primarily observed off the coast of Oman, with an estimated 40 tankers transiting in both directions. 🛢️ Commodities As crude oil prices reached local peaks at the end of last week, approaching levels seen a month ago, the threshold for further gains remains high. Investors are awaiting announcements from Scott Bessent, who is expected to outline measures the US will take to exert economic pressure on Iran. As he noted in the Financial Times: "at dawn, economic 'D-Day' will begin – the largest financial offensive in history directed against an enemy." The start of the week is marked by modest declines. Brent crude is currently trading at approximately $93 per barrel (-1.4%). WTI crude is priced at around $85.50 (-1.6%). LNG prices are also retreating. Liquefied natural gas on the Dutch TTF exchange is currently trading at approximately $66 per MWh (-0.6%). Figure 1: Oil [H1] (17.08 - 24.08) Source: XTB Research, 24.08.2026 🌍 Geopolitics News from the Middle East remains concerning, yet it no longer dominates the headlines of the trade press. Over the weekend, attention shifted towards cyberattacks originating from Iran. 📈 Equities The equity market passed through the weekend without significant disruption. Both US S&P 500 and German DAX futures are oscillating near Thursday's closing levels. Red dominates Asian exchanges. Declines are evident in the Japanese Nikkei 225 (-0.5%), the Chinese Hang Seng (-1.9%), and the Korean Kospi, where the scale of the movement is more pronounced at -3.2%. The primary theme is a more than 8% drop in Samsung shares. Investors reacted unfavourably to news regarding plans to redistribute between $65 billion and $80 billion in profits; expectations were for a higher sum and more specific details regarding share buyback programmes. Alibaba is also losing ground (nearly -10%) following the announcement of plans to raise approximately $10 billion through a new share issuance. The highlight of the week for equity markets will be Nvidia's quarterly results, scheduled for Wednesday. The tech giant's report is viewed by the market as a critical test for the sustainability of the AI-driven bull market. Investors will be scrutinising not only the financial results for the last three months but, more importantly, forecasts for future demand for next-generation chips. Any deviation from analysts' high expectations will undoubtedly trigger sharp volatility across major indices, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. 📈 Macroeconomic data and monetary policy Following Nvidia's report, all eyes will turn to Jackson Hole for one of the two most significant central banking conferences of the year. The event will run from Thursday to Saturday. On Friday morning local time (approximately 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM UK time), Kevin Warsh is set to speak. The market seeks greater clarity, with Warsh himself stating he will treat Jackson Hole as a "blank slate." In terms of valuations, following the recent dovish correction, market bets on an autumn interest rate hike are rising (potentially in response to Scott Bessent's intervention in the debt market). An upward move in September is priced at approximately 40%, rising to just over 60% for October. On Wednesday, alongside Nvidia's report, PCE inflation data will be released. Although this measure significantly lags CPI, it is historically favoured by Federal Reserve policymakers. 🪙 Precious metals The decline in 30-year US Treasury yields resulting from the Treasury Department's intervention proved transitory. Yields currently stand at 5.24%, approximately 6 bps above Thursday's lows. The prevailing market distrust regarding the actions of the US administration is supporting precious metals. Gold is trading at approximately $4,650 per troy ounce, nearing a three-month high. Silver is currently priced at around $69 per troy ounce. 💱 Currencies Figure 2: G10 Currency Performance (24.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 24.08.2026 Currency market volatility remains low this morning. The Canadian dollar is a notable exception, recording a 0.2% loss against the greenback. This follows the collapse of US-Canada negotiations, which resulted in the imposition of 50% tariffs on a large portion of Canadian exports. According to Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, retaliatory measures are to be expected. ₿ Cryptocurrencies The cryptocurrency market lacks a clear direction today, mirroring the weekend's performance. We are observing a period of consolidation following the impressive gains seen last week. As with gold, the decline in confidence regarding US administration actions following the unsuccessful Treasury intervention in the debt market proved pivotal. The price of Bitcoin has risen by nearly 25% over the past seven days, currently oscillating around $74,500. Ethereum has seen a move of over 30%, currently approaching the key psychological barrier of $2,500.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Steel Drops to 4-Week Low

Steel rebar futures fell to around CNY 3,070, retreating from multi-week highs to four-week lows as weak construction activity and elevated rebar inventories continued to weigh on sentiment. China’s property market remained under pressure, with new home prices falling year-on-year in July, while rebar stockpiles stayed above year-ago levels. Weak mill profitability also limited buying appetite, with only about one-third of steelmakers profitable at the end of July. However, improving blast-furnace operating rates and expectations of seasonal restocking ahead of the September peak construction season offered some support. Beijing also signalled further measures to boost domestic demand, while the NDRC urged local governments to accelerate major projects, raising hopes for a gradual improvement in steel consumption.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Copper Falls as Inventories Ease Supply Concerns

Copper futures fell to around $6.55 per pound on Monday, retreating from recent gains as a sharp build-up in exchange inventories eased concerns over near-term supply tightness. LME-monitored copper inventories stood at 238,575 tons on August 20, about 16% above their February low, while SHFE-monitored stocks jumped 28.4% last week to 89,548 tons. The rise in inventories, along with a sharp narrowing in the LME cash premium over three-month copper, pointed to improved near-term availability and weighed on prices. Meanwhile, Zijin Mining warned that flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo could reduce its share of production by as much as 57,000 tons this year, highlighting continued risks to global supply. A weaker US dollar helped limit the decline, while investors await the Jackson Hole meeting and the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech for clues on interest rates.

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Energies

August 24, 2026

European Gas Holds Firm

European natural gas prices remained near multi-year highs, hovering around €65.8/MWh on Monday, as investors awaited details of a US plan to economically isolate Iran that could further disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East. Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference later today and has threatened to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran. This follows President Trump’s threat last week to impose sanctions on countries that continue trading with Tehran. Iran, however, dismissed the threats as a sign of desperation, saying the new sanctions would fail to defeat Tehran. For Europe, concerns over gas inventories are becoming increasingly pressing, as ongoing tensions between the two sides have kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, delaying Qatari LNG deliveries to Europe. This, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, has slowed the pace of inventory replenishment, leaving European storage levels under greater pressure ahead of winter.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Soybeans Trade Near Multi-Week High

Soybeans traded above $12.20 per bushel, hovering near multi-week highs as strong demand offset a limited increase in US crop prospects. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour put the US soybean yield at just 0.6 bushels per acre above the USDA’s August estimate, implying only 53 million bushels more production, suggesting the findings may have a limited impact on the supply outlook. Instead, traders are turning their attention to weather as much of the crop still needs to mature, with flooding and disease risks in parts of the eastern Midwest adding uncertainty over final yields and harvested acreage. Demand remains a key source of support, with China and unknown destinations purchasing nearly 53 million bushels of new-crop US soybeans in recent flash sales. Traders are also watching whether strong export demand continues into the new marketing year, when Chinese imports typically increase.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Iron Ore Weakens Despite China Stimulus

Iron ore futures hovered around CNY 710 per ton, with underlying demand concerns persisting despite fresh Chinese stimulus signals. China’s steel output fell 3.6% year-on-year to 76.93 million tons in July, the lowest for the month since 2017, while inventories remained elevated. Weak property activity weighed on demand, with home prices down 3.2% year-on-year, while only about one-third of steelmakers were profitable. China’s July iron ore imports also fell 4% month-on-month to 108.09 million tons as shrinking steel margins prompted some mills to undertake maintenance. Meanwhile, fresh stimulus measures and expectations of stronger demand ahead of the September peak season offered support, with the government planning measures to boost domestic demand and growth and the NDRC urging local governments to accelerate major projects.

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Energies

August 24, 2026

WTI slips below $85.00 as traders take profits before new US sanctions on Iran

Investors take profits ahead of stricter US sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports and trading partners. Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions fail to prevent oil's short-term decline. WTI retains its bullish bias, holding firm above both the short-term nine-period and 50-period EMAs. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates after two days of gains, trading around $84.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices decline as investors took profits ahead of an expected US announcement regarding stricter sanctions against Iran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington plans to impose the "toughest" sanctions in history, framing the measures as an unprecedented campaign of economic isolation designed to compel Iran and its trade partners into compliance. This policy shift threatens to further constrain global energy markets, particularly as Iranian oil shipments face severe disruptions and offers to Chinese buyers have dropped off amid an ongoing US naval blockade. Tehran dismissed the impending measures as merely another ineffective attempt to exert economic pressure. Iranian officials emphasized that the country has decades of experience navigating blockades and possesses the resilience to sustain its economy and international trade relationships. Concurrently, geopolitical friction around the Strait of Hormuz remains acute, with vessel traffic through the critical oil transit corridor remaining significantly below historical averages. Strait of Hormuz tensions and tight diesel stocks keep energy markets on edge Commodity strategists at Commerzbank stress that “developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the focus of the energy markets,” with geopolitical risks continuing to dominate near‑term sentiment. They add that “since no other major reports are scheduled, attention is also likely to turn to inventory trends,” noting that “on the oil market, diesel inventories are particularly tight,” which reinforces the supportive backdrop for Brent. Technical Analysis: WTI declines despite prevailing bullish bias WTI US Oil trades at $84.80, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as price holds above both the short-term nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of price over these key EMAs suggests underlying demand remains in control, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.06 stays in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting at steady rather than overstretched upside momentum. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-period EMA at $83.91, with a deeper floor at the 50-period EMA near $81.62 should a corrective pullback unfold. As long as WTI holds above these supports, the broader path of least resistance remains to the upside, with any dips likely to attract buyers rather than signal a decisive trend reversal. WTI US Oil: Daily Chart

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Gold gains momentum above $4,600 on US Treasury buyback plans

Gold gains momentum above $4,600 on US Treasury buyback plans Gold price edges higher to near $4,625 in Monday’s early Asian session.  Bessent said he may increase the government's repurchases of Treasuries further.  Iranian official dismissed the threat of a fresh round of US economic sanctions as a “desperate” ploy.  Gold price (XAU/USD) gains traction to around $4,625 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal climbs to the highest since May 15 as the US Treasury's buyback support plan weighs on the US Dollar (USD). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday the government could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, a day after the department unveiled plans to double buybacks of longer-dated securities.  This development has cooled Treasury yields and dragged the USD lower. It’s worth noting that because gold is priced in the USD, a weakening currency makes it significantly cheaper and more attractive to foreign buyers.  "A big factor, of course, is technical... next step is $4,700 if this momentum continues, but also I think it's been very much driven by a drop in the U.S. dollar," said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. On the other hand, energy-driven inflation concerns amid ongoing Middle East tensions could raise the prospect of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes in the coming months. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the threat of a fresh round of US economic sanctions as a “desperate” ploy and said the expected new measures would fail to defeat Tehran, per Reuters. US President Donald Trump last week announced a new campaign to increase the pressure on the Iranian economy, calling it “the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country”.   Treasury support at the long end underpins Gold as Fed looks through energy According to TD Securities, “the signal of the Treasury looking to support the longer end may offer enough support on its own,” particularly for Gold and the broader precious metals complex. This is reinforced by “a Fed willing to look past higher energy prices,” which, in their view, helps sustain the current higher trading range and keeps the door open to further upside as trend-following flows respond to the evolving policy backdrop. Technical Analysis: Gold maintains a constructive outlook amid overbought RSI momentum In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as it extends above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend supported. However, the latest 14-period Relative Strength Index at 70.81 shows overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum could be stretched even as price pushes toward the upper Bollinger band. On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band at roughly $4,675.80, where fresh supply could emerge if buyers attempt another leg higher. On the downside, initial support is seen at the current price area as a nascent floor, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,379.39 and the Bollinger middle band at $4,305.50, while a deeper correction would expose the lower Bollinger band near $3,935.20.

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Forex Trading

August 24, 2026

United States Dollar Index softens below 99.00 on US fiscal concerns

US Dollar Index weakens to around 98.80 in Monday’s Asian session.  Treasury bond buybacks raise concerns over the deteriorating fiscal outlook.  Bessent said he will hold a press conference on Monday to explain fresh US sanctions against Iran. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 98.80 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY declines to near three-month lows as a market unsettled by the US Treasury's promise to buy back more long bonds.  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that it would double its long-end bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation to cap surging 30-year yields. The announcement came one day after the department surprised markets by pledging to at least double the size of its buybacks of longer-dated debt in an effort to rein in bond yields. "Bessent’s efforts to suppress U.S. yields haven't done much for U.S. yields, but it's undermined the dollar," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. "The market is pushing back,” Chandler added.   Recent US inflation data show signs of easing, though some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials said they would need to see more evidence that price pressures were receding. Markets are now pricing a 41.0% chance ‌of a Fed rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting, down from 47% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.   Later on Monday, Scott Bessent is scheduled to hold a press conference after threatening "the toughest sanctions in history" on Iran, with traders focused on whether he will target China.  Last week, US President Donald Trump announced the most severe economic action ever taken against Iran, saying this will be economic conflict and isolation on an unprecedented scale and the countries allowing financial aid to Iran will face severe economic consequences. Rising tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the USD against its rivals in the near term.  Dollar seen bearing brunt of US fiscal worries as yields capped Strategists at Scotiabank argue that the current policy mix leaves the currency particularly exposed to fiscal concerns. With authorities aiming to keep long-dated borrowing costs in check, they note that “efforts to suppress long-term yields means that the USD will bear a greater—negative—burden from US fiscal policy concerns,” reinforcing their view that the Dollar is likely to remain under pressure as fiscal uncertainty persists. Fed's Musalem flags upside inflation risks, keeps Dollar bulls alert despite neutral stance Fed's Musalem delivers a speech that aligns with the 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score, broadly in line relative to the historical average, but with a subtly more hawkish tilt beneath an ostensibly neutral policy description. By stating that monetary policy is “neutral or accommodative” while warning that underlying inflation is stuck around 2.5%-3%, that current rates carry a lower probability of reaching 2%, and that hiking now could avert more aggressive action later, the remarks lean toward pre-emptive tightening despite acknowledging strong growth, accommodative financial conditions, and potential supply shocks like a Super El Nino. The emphasis on preserving Fed credibility, keeping monetary policy independent of fiscal policy, and focusing on core inflation under supply shocks reinforces a price-stability-first narrative that is modestly supportive for the Dollar and U.S. yields. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.34 points to 132.42, signaling a minor pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the 100 neutral line. This configuration suggests that, while the immediate tone is slightly less hawkish than recent communications, the broader policy backdrop stays in hawkish territory, consistent with a 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score and a Fed still biased toward further tightening if inflation fails to move convincingly back to 2%. Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index remains capped below the 100-day SMA In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot maintains a bearish near-term bias as it sits below the 100-day moving average and the Bollinger middle band. Price is pressing into the lower half of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 30 suggests the index is approaching oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but still dominant as long as it remains capped beneath these overhead averages. On the topside, initial resistance aligns at the 100-day moving average near 99.70, followed closely by the Bollinger 20-period simple moving average at 99.75, forming a tight supply zone before the upper Bollinger band at 101.00. On the downside, the immediate cushion is the lower Bollinger band at 98.50, where a clear break would open the door to a continuation of the downtrend, while a bounce from this area would likely see the index retesting the clustered resistance just above 99.50.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

XAG/USD holds bullish below $70.00/two-month high set on Friday

Silver kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a range below a two-month high. Last week’s breakout through key technical barriers favors bulls and backs the case for further gains. A move beyond the 50% Fibo. near the $72.00 mark is needed to reaffirm the constructive outlook. Silver (XAG/USD) seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses around the $69.00 mark through the Asian session on Monday. The white metal, however, remains within striking distance of a two-month high, around the $70.00 psychological mark touched on Friday, and seems poised to appreciate further. The XAG/USD holds a near-term bullish bias following last week's breakout above the $66.65-$66.70 horizontal resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July decline. Moreover, the white metal holds above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which, along with positive oscillators, underpins the advance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays marginally positive, hinting that the upward trajectory is still in place but moderating. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 66 suggests strong buying pressure, though the approach toward overbought territory could slow the pace of gains. Hence, a subsequent move up might confront initial resistance at the 50.0% retracement at $71.95, ahead of the 61.8% level at $76.08, with further barriers at the 78.6% retracement at $81.97 and the cycle high at $89.47. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the reclaimed 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $67.81, followed by the 23.6% level at $62.70 and the 200-period SMA at $60.93, while a deeper setback would expose the structural floor anchored around $54.43. XAG/USD 4-hour chart

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Energies

August 24, 2026

Heating Oil Retreats

US heating oil futures fell to around $4.40 per gallon, retreating from their highest level since early April, tracking a decline in benchmark crude prices as markets await Washington’s announcement of new sanctions on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to outline the measures at a press conference, warning that the US could impose what he described as the “toughest sanctions in history.” President Donald Trump has also threatened penalties on countries that continue trading with Tehran. The US efforts to isolate Iran could increase the risk of retaliation and deeper disruptions to global energy markets. Meanwhile, tighter Canadian crude supplies could put upward pressure on refined product prices by constraining refinery feedstock, particularly in the US Midwest, where refiners rely on Canada for around 70% of their crude. Fuel supply concerns have also intensified after Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries disrupted production and led to shortages in several regions.

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Markets

August 24, 2026

Corn Futures Rally to 17-Month High

Corn futures climbed toward $5 per bushel, hitting a seventeen-month high as growing concerns over US crop yields fueled expectations of tighter supplies. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the national corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, well below the USDA’s August forecast of 180.7 bushels and implying production of 15.344 billion bushels, around 670 million below the government’s estimate. Yield results from all seven states surveyed by the tour came in below last year’s levels, with Illinois at 184.19 bushels per acre, down from 199.57 a year earlier. Strong export demand is adding to the bullish outlook, with US corn export commitments already 24% above last year and exceeding the USDA’s full-year projection. Meanwhile, hot and dry conditions across parts of the US Corn Belt have added to crop stress, while adverse weather in Europe and continued disruptions to Ukrainian grain shipments are raising concerns over global supplies.

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Forex Trading

August 22, 2026

Three markets to watch next week

The previous week brought turmoil regarding US debt to the markets, which visibly impacted the valuation of assets such as the dollar and gold. Despite the summer holiday mood, the end of August could feature higher volatility across global financial markets. Attention is focused on three key events: the Jackson Hole symposium starting on Thursday, Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, and the release of July PCE data for the US. In this context, investors should primarily observe markets such as US100 (Nasdaq 100 futures), gold (GOLD), and the USDJPY currency pair. US100 (Nasdaq 100 fut.) The index encompassing the key technology companies faces a fundamental test. Wednesday's Nvidia report will show whether demand for artificial intelligence solutions justifies its high valuation. The earnings of this company have repeatedly served as a market catalyst, setting the trend for all of Wall Street. Corporate results in the US have so far exceeded expectations, setting the bar very high for Nvidia. Any negative surprise could deepen the correction across the broader tech index. Gold (GOLD) The precious metal is regaining popularity among investors amid rising uncertainty. Turmoil in the US debt market served as a reminder of its role as a safe haven. The most important data points of the week will be Wednesday's report on US personal income and spending, alongside the preferred inflation measure of the Fed, the PCE index. It will reveal whether the Fed has room to pause interest rate hikes despite rising oil prices. A key moment will be Friday's speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. The market will analyze his assessment of inflation, economic growth, and the future path of interest rates. However, it is worth keeping in mind Warsh's previous announcements regarding communication limits, which means the anticipated speech might not deliver explicit signals. USDJPY USDJPY remains one of the more volatile currency pairs amid turmoil in the bond market. Last week's issues with US debt only heightened the uncertainty stemming from rising yields in both the US and Japan. Wednesday's PCE inflation readings and Friday's speech by Kevin Warsh could directly impact the dollar valuation and bond yields. In the past, sharp shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations often led to a rapid narrowing of the yield spread between the US and Japan, resulting in a sudden strengthening of the yen.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Week ends with a shallow rebound

USA Volatility and trading volume in the US market remain limited. This is mainly due to investors waiting for Nvidia’s results, which will be released next week and will be key to determining the market’s next direction. US index futures are up around 0.2% to 0.6% late in the session. After a bearish week in financial markets, Friday’s session brings a moderate correction of negative sentiment. However, this rebound does not stem from a fundamental improvement in corporate performance, but rather from a mechanical relationship between debt yields and the attractiveness of equity returns. The decline in yields, which supports demand for stocks, is seen as artificial. It remains to be seen whether Scott Bessent’s intervention in the bond market will have a lasting effect. Donald Trump reaffirmed his stance on Iran and ordered a halt to negotiations. The next step in the strategy toward Iran is expected to reduce military pressure in favor of economic pressure, but there are still no concrete details from the US. Company News, USA Newmont Mining (NEM.US): Gold miners are rising on expectations of fiscal unrest. Shares are up about 2.5%. Strategy (MSTR.US): Gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum support sentiment toward crypto linked companies, especially “treasury” type firms. The stock is up about 6%. Ubiquiti (UI.US): The networking solutions provider beat investor expectations with Q2 2026 results, reporting USD 937 million in revenue versus about USD 870 million expected. Shares are down about 4%. Ross Stores (ROST.US): The US discount retailer is strengthening mainly on the back of a sharp improvement in guidance. The better than expected outlook is driven primarily by higher foot traffic and customer visits at Ross and DD’s Discounts stores. Shares are up about 6%. Broadcom (AVGO.US): The company is preparing to challenge Nvidia in the chip market. To that end, it is seeking, in cooperation with Apollo Asset Management, loans and investments totaling around USD 60 billion. Macroeconomic Data, USA US releases were dominated by the August services and manufacturing PMI readings.Services PMI: 56.8 (Expected: 54.0)Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 (Expected: 53.9)A sharp rise in activity in the services sector helped offset a notable slowdown in growth in manufacturing. The industrial sector appears to remain under pressure from energy costs and logistical issues. Expansion in the larger services segment could prompt the Fed to moderately tighten its messaging on interest rates. Services PMI: 56.8 (Expected: 54.0) Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 (Expected: 53.9) A sharp rise in activity in the services sector helped offset a notable slowdown in growth in manufacturing. The industrial sector appears to remain under pressure from energy costs and logistical issues. Expansion in the larger services segment could prompt the Fed to moderately tighten its messaging on interest rates. Europe European markets are also correcting the bearish sentiment that dominated most of the week, supported by rising bond prices and falling yields. Gains in Europe are additionally supported by moderately positive economic data. Nearly all major European indices are posting moderate advances, led by Switzerland and Spain, where SUI20 and SPA35 futures are up about 1%. Company News, Europe JD Sports: Shares rose 5%, recovering losses after Thursday’s drop triggered by news that the sportswear retailer cut its annual profit forecast. Nibe Industrier: The stock gains 8% after the Swedish heat pump maker released its second quarter results. Straumann: The implant manufacturer fell 3% after receiving a negative recommendation from an investment bank. Macroeconomic Data, Europe Eurozone data are better than individual readings from France and Germany might suggest. The composite PMI rose to 52.1, with manufacturing performing particularly strongly, especially in Germany. Services remain the weaker element, falling below 50 in both of the two largest economies. At the same time, lower inflation expectations may give the ECB slightly more room, so the current setup can be assessed as moderately supportive for European assets. Forex Deputy Finance Minister Liao Min said Beijing is preparing new fiscal and financial measures for the second half of the year. AUD and NZD are very sensitive to China’s outlook, so the market immediately bought both currencies. Both are up about 0.8% versus the US dollar. Commodities In agricultural commodities, wheat stands out for volatility, rising due to a worsening supply situation triggered by conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. The energy sector is operating amid uncertainty about the next steps by the parties to the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude is slightly lower, below USD 92 per barrel. European gas is rising, reaching EUR 66. Gold and silver gains are accelerating. Precious metals are benefiting from concerns about the stability and predictability of fiscal policy and debt, mainly in the US. Crypto The cryptocurrency market is among the main beneficiaries of turbulence in the US debt market and the increasingly weak quality of US fiscal policy. Strong gains are being recorded across nearly the entire market.Bitcoin is up more than 6%, returning to USD 77,000.Ethereum adds another 4% to its recent wave of gains, reaching around USD 2,440.Solana rises by just under 5% to above USD 91. Bitcoin is up more than 6%, returning to USD 77,000. Ethereum adds another 4% to its recent wave of gains, reaching around USD 2,440. Solana rises by just under 5% to above USD 91.

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Earnings

August 22, 2026

Ross Stores: “Only” good earnings, or a recession signal?

One of the less exciting, yet moderately important U.S. companies reporting earnings today was Ross Stores. Ross Stores operates several discount retail chains, meaning stores aimed at less affluent customers. Ross Stores’ stated and target customer group is “middle income,” but looking at the U.S. retail landscape, the USD 80,000 to 90,000 annual income bracket that dominates among Ross Stores customers is hard to describe as “middle income” in the current environment. Earnings The headline financial figures were good, though meaningfully distorted. Revenue rose to USD 6.3 billion, slightly above the consensus of about USD 6.15 billion. Comparable sales (like for like) increased by 10%. The report indicates this growth was a mix of higher engagement from existing customers and an influx of new ones. EPS (GAAP) came in at USD 2.66 versus the USD 1.94 consensus. Crucially, USD 0.60 of that total came from a refund of customs duties. After adjusting for this, EPS beat consensus by 6%, not 37%. Despite the significant impact from tariffs, operating margin improved organically by 205 basis points, so the company showed a real, not merely on paper, improvement in operating efficiency. Investors reacted most positively to the clear upward revision of growth forecasts for the coming quarters. This reflects noticeably higher traffic in the company’s stores. Ross Stores price chart (D1) In the context of Ross’s own rally and potential positioning for a “recession,” a retailer with “only” a decent growth pace and a P/E of around 33 suggests that a meaningful premium tied to a weakening consumer is already priced in. Source: xStation5 Macroeconomic implications More interesting than the results themselves are the macroeconomic observations suggested by the latest quarter’s results from retailers and consumer companies. Two important trends are visible, and they closely mirror what is happening in the broader economy. Budget retailers such as Ross and Target handled earnings well. Mid to upper mid priced brands also did well, such as Estée Lauder. Meanwhile, previous market leaders like Walmart and Costco fell sharply after earnings. Why? In July, U.S. retail sales declined by 0.6% month over month, the first drop in nine months. At the same time, they were 5% higher than a year earlier. Earlier data pointed to continued growth in real consumption, but also a decline in the savings rate to 2.7%. This means demand remains resilient, although households’ financial buffer is shrinking. In such a situation, companies that offer households the best price to quality ratio benefit, as do “aspirational” brands focused on customers who are not yet under financial pressure. As with retailers’ earnings, everything suggests that consumption growth is becoming lower quality and more fragile. Cost pressure from expensive gasoline, which affects consumers as well as distributors and producers, will only reinforce the current trends.

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Energies

August 22, 2026

Hot US Weather Forecasts Push Nat-Gas Prices Higher

September Nymex natural gas (NGU26) on Friday closed up +0.040 (+1.46%). Nat-gas prices settled higher on Friday as forecasts for hotter US weather could potentially boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air conditioning use.  The Commodity Weather Group said on Friday that forecasts shifted to hotter, with above-average temperatures across Texas, the Southwest, and the Interior West through September 4.  Also, nat-gas prices rose as forecasts for record-high temperatures in West Texas over the next week support nat-gas demand.  The largest Texas electric grid, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, forecast peak power demand on Friday through next Tuesday that will exceed the all-time record set in July.  US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 113.1 bcf/day (+4.4% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 80.9 bcf/day (+2.7% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 17.7 bcf/day (-2.6% w/w), according to BNEF. As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 15 rose +2.36% y/y to 101,498 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending August 15 rose +2.24% y/y to 4,359,446 GWh. As a bearish factor, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) last Tuesday projected that US nat-gas storage levels will swell to 3,985 bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average.  US nat-gas inventories are currently +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, a sign of robust supplies.  Nat-gas prices have some negative carryover from August 4, when Energy Transfer announced that the Hugh Brinson pipeline will be able to operate at its full transportation capacity of 1.5 bcf/day by September 1, allowing more gas supplies to flow from the Permian Basin to the US benchmark Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, boosting US domestic supplies.  A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand.  Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish as it showed a +16 bcf increase in US nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 14, above market expectations of +14 bcf, but below the 5-year weekly average of +29 bcf.  As of August 14, nat-gas inventories were down -0.9% y/y and +6.2% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of August 19, gas storage in Europe was 62% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 79% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended August 21 fell by -1 to 127 rigs, modestly below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.

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Energies

August 22, 2026

Crude Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Hostilities Persist

October WTI crude oil (CLV26) closed up +0.23 (+0.26%) on Friday, and October RBOB gasoline (RBV26) closed up +0.0377 (+1.25%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled higher on Friday, with gasoline posting a 3.5-week high.  Crude prices were supported on Friday by threats from President Trump to crush Iran’s economy, dampening any hopes of a resolution to the US-Iran war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  However, gains were limited on Friday due to comments from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who called for an end to the US-Iran war.  On Thursday, President Trump threatened Iran and its trading partners with economic isolation.  Mr. Trump said any country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face tremendous consequences.  Markets await Monday’s press conference, when US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration would give details on plans to isolate Iran’s economy.  Comments on Friday from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian limited gains in crude when he said, “It would be better to end the war today, now that we are strong and have dignity, with the whole world acknowledging our victory.”  On Monday, President Trump said he's not interested in extending the expiring agreement with Iran, dimming prospects for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  Also, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the US is playing the long game with Iran, implying the US has no plans for de-escalation of the conflict, potentially limiting crude supplied from the Middle East. Crude prices also have support amid fresh Israeli attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, dampening the prospects of ending hostilities in the Middle East and a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  In addition, Israel has struck Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza, the Yemen- based Houthis have attacked ships in the Red Sea, and several vessels have been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Gains in crude prices are contained as many Gulf countries can successfully transit crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's attacks on shipping through the strait. Last week, US Energy Secretary Wright said that 9 million bpd crossed through the strait over the past seven days, higher than expectations of 4 million bpd.  According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa, the UAE, Qatar, Iraq and Kuwait have all been shipping crude oil out of the Persian Gulf by turning off the transponders on their oil tankers, or “dark” transits.  There have been no signs of progress toward a US-Iran agreement to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military spokesperson said last Thursday that no ship can safely pass the Strait of Hormuz without Iran's authorization and supervision and that President Trump's claims of control over the Strait are "nothing more than lies." The Iranian statement was in response to President Trump's comment last Tuesday that the US has "total control over the Hormuz Strait" and that "we own it."  In a supportive factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, released last Wednesday, that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, even as oil demand is taking a hit from the war and high prices.  The IEA said global oil inventories will fall in Q3 at twice the previously estimated rate because of ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war. Crude prices have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.  Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure knocked Russia’s crude production in July to 8.89 million bpd, the lowest in six years, according to secondary source estimates published by OPEC. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September.  The group has now restored all of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  The production increases by OPEC+ might prove difficult to achieve amid renewed US-Iran military attacks in the region.  OPEC's July crude production rose by +1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd.  Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -5.8% w/w to 108.02 million bbl in the week ended August 14. Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of Aug 14 were +0.3% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -12.7% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending Aug 14 rose +0.2% w/w to 13.83 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in November 2025. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 21 fell by -3 to 452 rigs, falling back from the 1.25-year high of 455 rigs the week of August 14.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Coffee Prices Slip on Brazil Harvest Pressures

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) is down -0.25 (-0.08%) today, and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) is down -86 (-2.32%). Coffee prices are falling today, with robusta sharply lower.  Arabica coffee is under pressure on expectations for drier weather in Brazil to speed up the pace of the country’s coffee harvest.  Robusta is retreating amid rising inventories as ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,732 lots today. On Wednesday, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported that 81.1% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 14, up 7 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 86.1% a year earlier. Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should speed up the pace of the country's coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. On Wednesday, arabica prices surged to a 6.5-month high as the slow pace of Brazil's coffee harvest is limiting coffee supplies.  Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%.  Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%.  Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 229,214 bags on Tuesday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to an 8.75-month high of 4,722 lots today. Coffee prices also have support from last Monday's devastating earthquake in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by Monday's 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report last Thursday quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Cattle Markets Crash and Bounce Back As News Alert Roils Markets

The Cattle futures markets gap opened lower on Friday as news from the White House sent prices reeling. In an attempt to lower beef prices, the US will allow for the next three months additional ground beef to come in tariff free. There will be 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef imported with no out of quota tariff. This beef will be sold at 25% below current market prices for the American consumer. “This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again” the post stated. I guess I forgot the power of the tweet in my statement on Thursday. This news pressured futures and cash prices early as the selling was fast and furious. The good news for the market was futures didn’t go limit down and price stabilized fairly quickly. The open saw September Feeder Cattle break down to its low at 321.325, consolidate and then work higher the rest of the session to its high at 329.475 and then settle near the high at 329.025. October Live Cattle fell to its low at 212.675 and then reversed course and traded higher the rest of its session to the high at 218.225. It settled near the high at 217.925. The reversal was likely a short-covering rally as we headed into the weekend and the uncertainty that the Cattle on Feed report would bring to the market so traders reduced exposure. I had a lot of people talking on how it will probably be a bullish Cattle on Feed report and this early news release was a way to temper that report. The results are below and looking at the placements we could consider the report bullish as the placements came in well below expectations. Will that have a positive effect on the market on Monday? Normally, I would say yes but with the border with Mexico  scheduled to open on Monday, who knows what the market reaction will be, in my opinion. The breakdown took cattle prices to new lows for the down move and the rally took price back to test resistance. We could look at this as a bullish reversal technically  but the trade will be watching the border and cattle movement which could temper sentiment. We’ll see!... The early collapse in Feeders took price near support at 321.00 and the rally breached resistance at 329.075. Settlement was just under resistance. If price takes out the Friday high, we could see a test of resistance at 332.05. Resistance then comes in at the declining 8-DMA now at 333.10. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 326.875. Support then comes in at 321.00. The opening breakdown in October Cattle  saw price open below support at 214.325. It attempted to rally, trading up to the key level at 215.60 and failed to hold it and fell to its low. It found support at the low and rallied past resistance at 217.75. It was able to settle above resistance. A rally past the Friday high could see price test resistance at 218.625. Resistance then comes in at the declining 8-DMA at 219.20 and then the key level at 220.05. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 215.60 and then 214.325. The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 341.00 as of 08/20/2026 settlement.  Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts fell 4.24 to 385.69 and select dropped 2.42 to 361.32. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 24.37 and the load count was 91. Friday’s estimated slaughter is 99,000, which is below last week’s 100,000 and last year’s 100,872. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 15,000, which is above last week’s 1,000 and last year’s 2,911. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 523,000, which is above last week’s 517,000 and below last year’s 555,676. The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate demand in Nebraska. Compared to Wednesday, live purchases in Nebraska have been unevenly steady from 223.00-226.00, mostly 225.00-226.00. The last established dressed market in Nebraska was Thursday at mostly 356.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. There have been a few live purchases from 220.00-225.00 and a few dressed purchases from 350.00-355.00, but not enough at any one price level for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday with live purchases from 225.00-226.00, mostly 225.00, and dressed purchases at mostly 355.00. Last weeks market in Kansas was at 228.00. The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 221.00 – 227.00 and from 350.00 – 360.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.  United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent  Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on August 1, 2026. The inventory was 2 percent above August 1, 2025.  Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.42 million head, 11 percent below 2025. Net placements were 1.37 million head. Placements were the lowest for July since the series began in 1996. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 310,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 320,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 322,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 185,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.  Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.62 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.  Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during July, 8 percent above 2025. Trade Strategy: February 2027 Live Cattle Options Conservative Strategy  Sell the February 2027 Live Cattle 250/230 put spread at 17 cents. Premium collected: $6,800, less commissions and fees Maximum risk: $1,200, plus commissions and fees Margin requirement: $1,104 Risk management: Consider limiting risk to 200 points ($800) plus commissions and fees Profit objective: Work a bid to buy back the spread at 7 cents Potential gain: Approximately $4,000, less commissions and fees February 2027 Live Cattle Options Aggressive Strategy Buy the February 2027 224 call and sell the February 2027 234/224 put spread. Net cost to enter: Even money, excluding commissions and fees Margin requirement: $2,884 Risk management: Limit risk to 500 points ($2,000) from entry Market outlook: We believe February cattle have the potential to rally back into the mid-230s Profit objective: If the market reaches that target, consider offering the three-way option position at 800 points Potential gain: Approximately $3,200, less commissions and fees

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Cocoa Prices Retreat as Global Supplies Improve

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down -98 (-1.61%) on Friday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed down -10 (-0.23%). Cocoa prices settled lower on Friday amid signs of larger global supplies after Bloomberg reported that Nigeria’s July cocoa bean exports rose +18% y/y to 16,052 MT.  Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. On Thursday, cocoa prices rallied to 2-week highs on concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.  Ghana’s Cocoa Board said Thursday that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Also, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  On the bearish side, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5. In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Sugar Prices Consolidate Recent Rally

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.09 (+0.51%) on Friday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -0.60 (-0.11%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Friday, as prices consolidated recent sharp gains.  Concerns that the global sugar market will soon be in deficit are underpinning prices. On Thursday, NY sugar posted a 15-month high, and London sugar posted a 17-month high on the prospects of tighter global supplies.  The Indian government said on Thursday that it will cut import duties on sugar to boost supplies and lower prices ahead of an expected surge in demand during festival season.  India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move is a further sign of the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Sugar prices have surged this month, driven by the outlook for tighter future sugar supplies.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists on July 29 raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT.  StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.  Sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported on Friday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 13% below normal as of August 21, although it had substantially improved from 42% below normal on June 30.  On July 31, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  Last Friday, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX last Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Cotton Closes Steady on Friday

Cotton futures were up 1 to 7 points in the front months on Friday, with contracts down 8 points to 20 points higher. December was up 355 points on the week. Crude oil was down 19 cents with the US dollar index $0.063 lower. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money adding another 5,798 contracts to their net long in cotton futures and options during the week ending on August 18. That net long stood at 78,668 contracts on Tuesday. Export Sales data from Thursday now has the 2026/27 cotton export commitments at 4.235 million RB, which is 31% above last year. That is also 37% of the USDA export projection and lags the 43% averages sales pace but is ahead of the 29% pace from last year. The Cotlook A Index was back up 300 points on August 20 at 98.90 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks were steady on Thursday, with the certified stocks level at 70,643 bales. The Seam reported just 55 bales sold in the 8/20 auction at 81.6 cents/lb. The Adjusted World Price was raised by 143 points on Thursday to 69.62 cents/lb.  Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 87.07, up 5 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 88.35, up 1 point, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 90.15, up 7 points

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Wheat Faded Lower into the Weekend

The wheat complex is in the red across the three exchanges on Friday. Chicago SRW contracts were fractionally to 1 ¼ cents lower on Friday, with September up 6 ¾ cents on the week. KC HRW futures posted losses of 1 ¾ to 6 cents on the session, with September holding onto a 2 cent gain for the week. MPLS spring wheat was down 2 ½ to 4 cents lower at the close, with September rallying 20 cents on the week. September options expired today. CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cutting back 4,916 contracts from their CBT wheat net short position in the week of 8/18 to a net short of 26,485 contracts. In KC wheat, they added back 7,173 contracts to their net long to 34,835 contracts. The weekly USDA Export Sales report has tallied 2026/27 wheat sales at 7.936 MMT, now down 31% from last year. That is 38% of the current USDA export estimate and lags the 49% pace from last year and the 45% average.  Sovecon estimates the Russian wheat crop at 88.2 MMT for 2026, a 0.3 MMT decline from the previous number. Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.81 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.99 1/4, down 3/4 cent, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.56 1/4, down 6 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.72 1/2, down 4 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $6.98 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.25 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Soybeans Firm Higher Late on Friday

Soybeans pushed higher late on Friday, with contracts up 1 to 4 ¼ cents at the close. September was up 47 ¼ cents on the week, with November 47 cents higher. September options expired today. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 3 1/4 cent at $12.02. Soymeal futures posted gains of $2 to $3.60 on the day, with September up $7.50 on the week. Soy Oil posted losses of 56 to 184 points, with September slipping 9 points since last Friday. USDA reported a total of 712,000 MT of 2026/27 soybeans to China this morning, with 720,000 MT sold to unknown destinations Following this week’s Crop Tour, Pro Farmer estimates the US national yield at 53.3 pba, with production at 4.572 bbu. Commitment of Traders data from CFTC showed managed money adding back 50,300 contracts to their net long position in the week ending on August 18. That took their net long to 151,662 contracts. Export Sales data from Thursday has 2025/26 soybean sales at 39.992 MMT, which is down 18% from the year prior. That is 97% of the USDA export projection and matches the last couple years sales pace. New crop commitments are at 11.85 MMT, which is double the same week last year and the largest in 4 years. China’s Sinograin will auction 290,000 MT of imported soybeans next Wednesday Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $12.25, up 4 1/4 cents, Nearby Cash  was $12.02 1/1, up 3 1/4 cents, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $12.39 1/2, up 3 cents, Jan 27 Soybeans  closed at $12.53 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents, New Crop Cash  was $11.83 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,

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Softs

August 22, 2026

Corn Rallies into Friday’s Close Following Week of Weaker Tour Yields

Corn futures found late strength on Friday with contracts 2 ¾ to 6 ½ cents higher across the board. September was 24 ¾ cents higher on the week, with December rallying 25 ¼ cents. September options expired today. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was up 5 cents at $4.52 ½. USDA reported 205,000 MT of corn sold during the reporting period to unknown destinations this morning.  Following this week’s Crop Tour, Pro Farmer estimates the US national yield at 173.2 pba, with production at 15.344 bbu. Weekly CFTC data tallied managed money spec traders in corn futures and options at a net long of 250,505 contracts by 8/18. That was a 83,735 contracts increase on the week, coming from a mix of new length and shorts covering. USDA Export Sales data from Thursday now has old crop corn commitments at 87.74 MMT, which is 24% above last year. That is also 102% of the USDA projection and matching the pace from last year. Accumulated sales for new crop are now at 11.391 MMT, which lags last year by 21.7%. That is still the 4th largest forward book since 2000. Sep 26 Corn  closed at $4.83 3/4, up 5 cents, Nearby Cash  was $4.55, up 5 cents, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $5.08 1/2, up 5 cents, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $5.23 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents, New Crop Cash  was $4.59 7/8, up 5 cents,

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Forecasting the upcoming week: Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut and US inflation test a soft US Dollar

The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week near even with Thursday, holding near 98.80. Like Thursday, DXY traded down to the 98.50s before recovering later in the session. The US Dollar Index trades near its lowest since May. The softness owes less to the data than to the plumbing: the US Treasury's move to at least double its buybacks of longer-dated debt pulled yields lower and took the shine off the Greenback, even as Friday's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys showed US activity still accelerating. Gold surged on Friday to a three-month peak above $4,600, the Australian Dollar climbed to a multi-month high, and Crude Oil held near a four-week high as Middle East tensions simmered. The coming week is back-loaded. There is little for the Dollar early on, but Wednesday brings the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, and Friday delivers a double-header: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) preliminary annual benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls. T he symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City under the theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," takes center stage. With the Dollar already near its lows, any dovish lean from Warsh, or a heavy downward revision to the jobs numbers, could deepen the slide. Elsewhere, the Eurozone calendar picks up with Germany's IFO survey and the final second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading on Tuesday, the accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting on Thursday, and flash August Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation on Friday, framed by speeches from Cipollone and Schnabel. Japan closes the week with Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that feeds the Bank of Japan (BoJ) debate, while Australia is busy with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes on Monday, monthly inflation on Tuesday and second-quarter capital expenditure on Wednesday. Canadian GDP rounds out Friday, and the unresolved Iran standoff hangs over the lot. EUR/USD ends the week around 1.1680, capped below 1.1700 after another failed run at the figure. The domestic calendar offers little to move it before Friday's flash inflation print, so the pair stays largely a Dollar story keyed to Jackson Hole. A firmer HICP reading would trim the modest easing still priced for the ECB and lend the euro a floor into month-end. GBP/USD trades in the mid-1.3600s as it closes the week, off midweek highs. With almost nothing on the UK calendar, Cable has no domestic anchor and rides the Dollar and Friday's Jackson Hole address; the risk is a quiet drift until Warsh speaks, then a sharp repricing in either direction. USD/JPY ends the week just above 159.00, a soft Dollar offset by a yen still weighed down by wide rate differentials. Friday's Tokyo inflation figures are the domestic focus, feeding a BoJ debate where swaps price roughly an 80% chance of a hike at the September 18 meeting. A firm print would harden those bets and press the pair toward its 200-day average. AUD/USD trades near 0.7170, its best in months and the standout of the majors. The RBA minutes open the week, but Tuesday's monthly CPI is the key test, with headline inflation expected to ease toward 3.2% from 3.8%. A cooler number would pare the little RBA tightening still priced in and could finally test the Aussie's run, while Wednesday's capital-expenditure data offers a read on business investment. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil ends the week in the high-$80s, near a four-week high, with no oil-specific data due. The crude story stays geopolitical: Washington's pivot toward economic sanctions on Iran rather than further strikes has eased the immediate threat of a supply shock, but reports that talks have stalled keep a floor under prices. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a defiant note, saying those who "sit across the border and invite the enemy to invade" are "not Iranians." Gold ends the week above $4,600, at a three-month peak after a run built on the sliding Dollar, softer real yields and a Middle East safe-haven bid. With no top-tier catalyst of its own, the metal takes its cue from Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Jackson Hole keynote: a dovish read from Warsh would extend the move, while any hint of caution on rates could invite the first real pullback in weeks.

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Banks

August 22, 2026

Bank of Canada: Tariff deal unlikely to accelerate hikes – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Robert Both expects the Bank of Canada to remain cautious even if a tariff agreement is reached. The Bank wants more data on how lower tariffs affect exports and output, with key trade figures not available until November. TD forecasts the BoC staying on hold through 2026 and delivering its first rate hike in January despite a narrowing output gap. BoC seen patient despite easing trade risks "We look for the Bank of Canada to proceed cautiously even if this deal is finalized by Saturday." "The Bank will want to see more data on the impact of lower tariffs, which won't be available until November." "We continue to look for the Bank to stay on hold through 2026 before hiking in January." "The Bank of Canada has been heavily focused on trade tensions as a dovish risk to its outlook, stating as recently as June that "significant new trade restrictions on Canada" could force it to cut rates again." "Even if we can't rule out further spillovers from high oil prices, the backdrop of excess supply should allow the Bank of Canada to stay patient and see how exports respond."

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Banks

August 22, 2026

United Kingdom: Resilient growth outlook – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank Research, led by Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan, highlights the United Kingdom (UK) economy’s surprising resilience to the Iran-related energy shock in 2026. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.6% q-o-q in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, making the UK the fastest-growing G7 economy. Softer inflation, strong household spending, robust business investment and stockpiling support Deutsche Bank’s view that 2026 GDP could exceed its 1.1% forecast. Growth beats expectations despite energy shock "But after a thumping Q1-26, where GDP growth outshot forecaster expectations, rising by 0.6% q-o-q, Q2-26 GDP growth didn’t disappoint either. For a second straight quarter, the UK economy outshot forecasters’ expectations, expanding by 0.4% q-o-q. To be sure, the UK is now the fastest growing economy in the G7 so far this year, with the economy growing at an annualised pace of 2%." "And yet again, forecasters will have been left revising up their projections with more upside risks brewing around 2026 GDP forecasts. Crucially, the recent upside in growth begs the question: why has the economy been so resilient in spite of the Iran energy shock? Indeed, household spending shot up by 0.85% in H1-26." "Big picture, UK GDP continues to show more resilience than many expected. Summer survey data have already outshot our own expectations, with the latest PMI data pointing to a firming in activity (the August flash composite index jumped to 52.5 from 52.2). And we now see more upside to our H2-26 growth projections, particularly in Q3-26." "A strong carry-over effect, plus sustained momentum could see GDP push a tenth higher to 0.2% q-o-q (our current projection has GDP growth projected at 0.1% q-o-q in Q3 and Q4)." "All in all, while we see GDP growth tracking at 1.1% this year, there’s some upside risk brewing. Risks are skewed to yet another upward revision in the coming months."

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Banks

August 22, 2026

South Korean Won: Cautious tightening path expected from BoK – DBS

DBS economists Taimur Baig and Radhika Rao expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to raise its base rate by 25bps to 3.00% at the August meeting, alongside upgraded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts. They highlight stronger-than-expected first-half growth, persistent core inflation and rising housing prices, but also note a hawkish hold is possible as financial conditions tighten and South Korean Won (KRW) appreciates. Rate hike with inflation concerns "We expect the Bank of Korea to raise the base rate by a further 25bps to 3.00% at this meeting, alongside an upgrade to its annual macroeconomic forecasts." "There is significant room for the BoK to revise up its 2026 GDP growth forecast to around 3.5%, from the current 2.6%, given the stronger-than-expected 1H growth of 3.8% yoy." "There is also room to revise up its 2027 CPI inflation forecast to close to 3.0%, from the current 2.3%. Although headline CPI moderated slightly to 2.8% yoy in July, from 3.2% in June, core CPI continued to edge up to 2.6% from 2.5%, while housing prices also increased further, to 2.7% from 2.6%." "These developments should keep the BOK cautious about the risk of inflation remaining above its 2% target for an extended period." "A hawkish hold at this meeting cannot be ruled out, however. This view mainly reflects the recent tightening in financial market conditions, driven by strong KRW appreciation and heightened KOSPI volatility. The BOK could therefore keep rates unchanged at this meeting while signalling the possibility of a further hike at the October meeting."

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Banks

August 22, 2026

Malaysian Ringgit: Robust trade supports MYR – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Moses Lim notes Malaysia’s July exports rose 38.0% year-on-year, marking a fourth month of double‑digit growth led by electronics and machinery. The bank highlights resilient external demand, strong shipments to the US and China, and an AI‑driven electronics cycle. USD/MYR has fallen for four sessions, with the Malaysian Ringgit slightly outperforming other Asian currencies versus the Dollar. Strong external demand underpins Ringgit "July exports rose 38.0% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 35.0%) vs 45.5% in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of double-digit growth. The report suggests external demand remains resilient despite supply-chain disruption risks from renewed Middle East tensions. Growth was broad-based, led by electronics and machinery shipments, with AI-related infrastructure demand from hyperscalers remaining a key driver." "Imports rose more than expected by 36.4% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 31.8%) vs 43.1% in June. This was driven by robust capital goods imports (+24.0%), suggesting healthy investment momentum. The trade surplus widened more than expected to MYR22.5bn (Bloomberg consensus: MYR22.9bn) vs MYR15.8bn previously." "In FX, USD/MYR fell 0.3% to 4.05 yesterday. The pair has declined for the fourth consecutive session, and it is approaching its lowest level since early June due to a weaker USD. Year-to-date, MYR is up 0.4% vs the USD, outperforming the average for Asian ex-Japan currencies of -1.5%." "Meanwhile, the AI-driven electronics cycle should continue to support semiconductor shipments as hyperscalers fulfil their capex commitments. Exports to the US surged 79.8% in July, while shipments to China rose 30.2%, highlighting continued support from key trading partners." "Looking ahead, export growth could face headwinds from high base effects, geopolitical uncertainties, and weather-related disruptions from El Niño. However, downside risks may be partly offset by resilient external demand. While Malaysia faces a 10% US tariff following the Section 301 forced labour investigation, around two-thirds of its exports to the US remain exempt."

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Banks

August 22, 2026

Thai Baht: Extended policy pause expected from Bank of Thailand – DBS

DBS economists Taimur Baig and Radhika Rao expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% in August, extending the pause after June’s unanimous decision. They cite uneven economic growth, easing but still elevated headline inflation within the 1–3% target range, and scope for accommodative policy to support recovery alongside fiscal measures. Accommodative stance to support recovery "We expect the BoT to maintain its policy rate at 1.00% at its August meeting, extending the pause following June’s unanimous decision." "Economic growth remains uneven, with both private consumption and foreign tourism weak but stabilising, while goods exports and private investment remain strong." "Headline inflation, although elevated, has eased for three consecutive months, falling to 1.9% yoy in July from rates near the upper end of the BoT’s 1-3% target range, largely due to lower energy prices." "Given the uneven pace of economic growth and headline inflation remaining within the central bank’s target range, the BoT retains scope to keep monetary policy unchanged and accommodative in order to support the economic recovery and complement fiscal policy amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties."

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Banks

August 22, 2026

Malaysian Ringgit: Supported by strong fundamentals against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong stress that the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) remains relatively well supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and robust domestic fundamentals. July exports surged and the trade surplus widened, underpinned by strong electronics and firmer palm Oil prices, though he cautions that elevated Oil and long-end US Treasury yields may temper the immediate FX impact. Exports and trade surplus underpin MYR "MYR remained relatively well supported, helped by the softer USD backdrop and still-favourable domestic fundamentals." "Trade data released yesterday saw July exports rose 38.0% YoY, stronger than expected, while the trade surplus widened to MYR22.5bn, adding to the picture of resilient growth following the strong 2Q26 GDP print." "The continued strength in electronics exports and firmer palm oil prices should also remain supportive for Malaysia’s external position." "That said, the immediate FX impulse from the strong data may be more modest, particularly with oil and long-end US Treasury yields still elevated." "We continue to see MYR relatively well placed within the region, especially if the broader USD pullback extends." "USD/MYR last closed at 4.0450 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact though RSI fell into oversold conditions. Pace of decline may moderate with risk of rebound not ruled out in the interim. But bias to lean against rebound." "Resistance at 4.0610 (38.2% fibo retracement of May low to June high), 4.08 levels. Support at 4.0320 (100, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo), 4 levels (61.8% fibo)."

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Commentary

August 22, 2026

US Business Growth Hits 52-Month High as Services Activity Surges, Despite Factory Growth Slowing

US Factory Growth Slows to 5-Month Low: S&P Global The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.2 in August 2026 from 53.9 prevously, undershooting market expectations of 53.9, flash estimates showed. The latest reading pointed to a moderation in manufacturing activity, with growth at its weakest since March, held back by higher fuel costs, reduced inventory building and raw material shortages linked to supply delays. Output growth slowed for a third consecutive month, reaching its weakest pace since July last year. New orders held up better but also lost momentum, expanding at their slowest rate since March. Input purchases fell for the first time since February, weighing on the PMI, while supply times lengthened sharply again, Employment rose modestly at the fastest pace since May. Price pressures moderated, especially in terms of selling price inflation, although nput cost inflation remained elevated by historical standards.due to high energy prices, squeezed supply lines, and tariffs. Lastly, business sentiment improved. US Services Activity Rises Most in 20 Months The S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 56.8 in August of 2026 from 54.6 in the previous month, well above market expectations of a drop to 54, to reflect the sharpest expansion in services activity since December 2024. New business wins expanded sharply in the sector, fast enough to expand backlogs for firms as clients made up for the decline in orders after the outbreak of war in the Middle East dampened demand in the second quarter of the year. Consistently, staffing levels were firmly higher. Meanwhile, input costs continued to rise at a marked pace, although inflation eased a bit from the 14-month high in July. Despite this, average output charge inflation softened to a six-month low. Looking ahead, confidence improved for a third month. US Business Growth Hits 52-Month High in August The US flash S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 56 in August 2026 from 54.5 in July, marking the strongest expansion since April 2022. The improvement was driven primarily by a revival in the services sector, where activity reached its fastest pace since December 2024 and more than offset a slowdown in manufacturing growth. Goods production recorded its weakest increase in 13 months, partly reflecting reduced inventory building and supply disruptions. Delivery times also lengthened significantly, contributing to a further accumulation of outstanding orders across both sectors. Stronger demand encouraged companies to increase hiring, with employment growing at its fastest pace since early 2025. Business confidence also improved, with expectations for future activity reaching a nine-month high. Meanwhile, price pressures showed some moderation, particularly in selling prices, although input costs remained elevated, largely due to higher energy prices.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Baltic Dry Index Rises for 2nd Day, Still Posts Weekly Loss

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index, which monitors rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, advanced for a second session on Friday, rising by 1.8% to 2,841 points, driven by gains across all vessel segments. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes including iron ore and coal, also gained for a second day, climbing by 2.8% to 4,552 points; and the panamax index, which tracks vessels carrying around 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, snapped a seven-day losing streak, up 0.7% to 2,108 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index rose to fresh July highs. The benchmark index recorded a weekly decline of 0.8%.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Week Ahead – Aug 24th

The outlook on global interest rates and long-term sovereign yields will remain in the market's forefront as investors grapple with elevated energy prices, increasing deficit spending, and soaring corporate credit issuance. The Fed's monetary policy and its holding of duration will be updated with FOMC speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Also, earnings by Nvidia will remain a bellwether for global AI demand in a period that sees ambitious outlooks clash against some skepticism of overspending on infrastructure. Personal income and spending, PCE prices, and durable goods data for July, in addition to the annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls, are awaited. Elsewhere, the ECB will release its meeting accounts. Germany is due to publish consumer and business confidence indicators while Spain and France are set for CPI prints. Meanwhile, Japan will release consumer confidence and its unemployment rate, while rate decisions are due in Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand.

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Markets

August 22, 2026

Gold Advances to Over 3-Month High

Gold climbed to over $4,600 an ounce on Friday, its highest level since mid-May, and extended weekly gains to around 5%. The rally was supported by renewed concerns over US fiscal sustainability after the Treasury unexpectedly increased its planned purchases of longer-dated government debt, pushing bond yields and the dollar lower. The intervention has raised questions about Washington’s ability to manage rising borrowing costs and reinforced demand for gold as an alternative store of value. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that further buybacks could follow, while the administration is preparing additional measures to address elevated financing costs. Meanwhile, rising oil prices could limit further gains by keeping inflation pressures elevated and reducing expectations for interest-rate cuts. The US campaign to intensify economic pressure on Iran has also weakened hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, supporting energy prices.

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Cryptocurrencies

August 22, 2026

Bitcoin Surges as Risk Appetite and ETF Inflows Improve

Bitcoin surged 6% to around $77,370 on Friday, extending gains to over 20% this week, its strongest weekly gain in more than three years, boosted by a broader improvement in risk appetite. The US Treasury announced plans to at least double its purchases of longer-dated government bonds, pushing long-term yields lower and the dollar weaker. The move also triggered a major short squeeze, with billions of dollars in bearish crypto positions liquidated over recent days. Investor sentiment was further supported by President Donald Trump’s meeting with cryptocurrency industry leaders and his call for progress on a new crypto market-structure bill. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also attracted more than $1 billion in weekly inflows, adding to demand. Despite the sharp rebound, Bitcoin remains well below its record high above $126,000 reached last October.

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Energies

August 22, 2026

European Stocks Close Higher

European stocks closed higher on Friday, trimming loses from the week with support from heavyweight banks and luxury brands. The Euro STOXX 50 rose 0.6% to 6,458 and the STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.5% to 653. Santander surged 2.7%, while BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, BBVA, and Nordea rose more than 1% to limit losses on the week as the US Treasury signal that it would intervene in bond market weakness on Wednesday raised volatility for benchmark credit costs. In turn, Italian lenders underperformed amid a wave of M&A possibilities in the sector, with UniCredit closing 0.3% higher while Intesa Sanpaolo fell 0.7%. Banca MPS simultaneously launched bids on Banco BMP and Banca Generali, jointly worth €34 billion, as it fends off Intesa's takeover bid. Meanwhile, LVMH, Adidas, Hermes, and Ferrari jumped between 2.3% and 1.5% for a positive session for luxury brands. The Euro STOXX 50 lost 1.3% and the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.6% on the week.

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Energies

August 22, 2026

Oil Holds Near Highs as Iran Conflict Uncertainty Persists

Crude oil was little changed around $94 a barrel on Friday, as investors assessed signs that Iran may be seeking an end to the conflict with the US. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would prefer to conclude the war while it remains in a position of strength, describing the existing memorandum with Washington as a victory for Iran. The comments provided some relief after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would impose its toughest-ever sanctions on Tehran and intensify economic pressure on the Iranian regime. Amidst the conflicting signals, oil prices rose more than 5% for the second week. Meanwhile, the US military said it had helped tankers transport more than 660 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz since early May, suggesting that substantial volumes continue to move through the critical energy corridor despite the conflict and heightened geopolitical risks.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Trade of The Day – US100

Facts: The price is currently trading above the EMA50 (29,301.49), the EMA100 (28,644.80) and the EMA200 (27,326.57). The RSI(14) indicator remains at 50.4. Recommendation: Long position in US100 at market price Stop Loss: 28 445 Take Profit: 30 500 Opinion: The recommendation to go long on the US100, with a target (take profit) around 30,500 points and a stop loss at 28,445 points, is based on a combination of technical analysis and fundamental arguments. On the daily chart, the price is trading above the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA200 moving averages, which are forming a clear uptrend, whilst the RSI (14) at around 50.4 indicates that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further gains without any reversal signals. Furthermore, the most recent downward move ended at the 50-day EMA, which may indicate the market’s willingness to maintain the current uptrend. From a fundamental perspective, the index is not expensive. The forward P/E ratio on a comparative scale from 2024 onwards shows that the index is currently trading below one negative standard deviation, even though the distance from the 200-day EMA fluctuates around slightly elevated values of the normal distribution within the same historical range. This situation may indicate that the valuation is not keeping pace with the growth in earnings generated by the companies comprising the Nasdaq 100 index (see appendix below). Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation was based on a technical and fundamental analysis of the US100 chart. Classical technical analysis was used to assess the situation and analyse the trend. Essential appendices: <figure> <img alt="" src="https://xas-new-cdn.xtb.com/default/0104/75/02a5b51b-8dc1-469d-a431-b6c82521d169/nasdaq-100-forward-p-e-2.png"> <figcaption> </figcaption> </figure> Fundamental Basis – forward P/E multiple valuation on a comparative scale from 2024 onwards shows that the index is currently trading below one negative standard deviation, even though the distance from the 200-day EMA fluctuates around slightly elevated values of the normal distribution within the same historical range. This situation may indicate that valuations are not keeping pace with the growth in earnings generated by the companies comprising the Nasdaq 100 index. Source: Bloomberg Financial Lp

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Silver tests $70 and breaks key resistance

Key takeaways Silver tests $70: The price has risen by over 20% in a month, breaking key technical resistances. Main causes: Increases are driven by a weak dollar, uncertainty in the debt market, and long-term inflationary pressure causing a rise in gold and, indirectly, silver prices. Forecast: Maintaining the $70 level opens the way to $72.50; key support is at $65. Silver is gaining 2% today, marking the third consecutive session of strong gains triggered by turmoil in the debt market and a weak dollar. Sharp turmoil in the debt market, which affected the weakness of the US dollar, triggered a massive wave of demand for precious metals. Silver is dynamically breaking above the 100-period moving average and is showing up in the $69.40-$70.00 per ounce range, noting an impressive monthly increase of over +20.5%. What is behind the rise in silver prices in the short and long term? Debt market turmoil and weak dollar Growing uncertainty surrounding treasury bond markets and the decline in the value of the USD are forcing capital to flee toward hard assets. We are observing a rebound in demand for silver from ETFs, although in the case of futures contracts, we do not see significant interest. Inflationary pressure and expensive oil Tensions in the Middle East and WTI crude heading towards $90/bbl are boosting global inflation expectations. While high energy prices in recent months acted rather negatively on bullion from a short-term inflation-spike perspective, it currently seems that inflation will stay with us for longer, which in the long run acts positively on gold, and with it, silver as well. The gold-to-silver price ratio has started to fall again. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Global copper supply issues It is worth remembering that silver is usually mined as a byproduct of other metals, including primarily copper. When supply problems appear in the copper market, it also affects the silver market. Furthermore, in the event of a continued energy crisis, we may again see an increase in demand for alternative energy sources in which copper and silver are increasingly used. What next? Key levels for silver Bullish scenario: A sustained move above $70.00 opens the way to resistance in the $72.50 area, where the 50.0 retracement of the last downward impulse is located. If this is a lasting recovery, an increase above the recent local peaks from May and breaking $90 per ounce will be possible. A return to a bull market in the silver market could even mean an attack on new historical highs in the long-term perspective. Assuming a similar situation to November 2025, the target could even be $130 per ounce. Correction scenario: High RSI and the Z-score valuation indicator (+3.21) call for caution. The first significant support is at the $65.00 level, and the key demand barrier runs at the 50-day average (approx. $61.30). Source: xStation5 In the case of the silver market, the second half of the year usually brings higher volatility. A common turning point is around the September Fed meeting. If Walsh were to show an even more dovish side, which would be a move consistent with the Treasury Department's latest strategy (return to T-Bill buybacks), silver along with other precious metals could continue to rise. Seasonality in the silver market.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

European Indices Rise, CTS Eventim Falls After Earnings. Metals Gain Amid Bond Market Strains

Key takeaways European indices opened Friday higher, with the Euro Stoxx 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 gaining around 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, even as elevated bond yields and higher oil prices remain key risks for valuations. Eurozone data are moderately supportive for the market: the composite PMI rose to 52.1, while manufacturing rebounded strongly, particularly in Germany. Investors are also focusing on the relative strength of commodities, precious metals and Bitcoin. CTS Eventim is trading lower despite solid results: second-quarter revenue rose by around 13% year over year. What did the company reveal? European indices opened Friday’s session higher, with the Euro Stoxx 600, Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX gaining around 0.4–0.5% , although they may still end the week with a second consecutive decline. The gains are accompanied by a cautious rebound in Wall Street index futures, with US100 up more than 0.3%. The biggest strategic problem for markets remains high bond yields — the relief following the U.S. Treasury’s actions faded quickly, and even Scott Bessent’s comments yesterday about potentially larger interventions than previously indicated failed to provide meaningful support to bonds. Higher oil prices are adding another layer of pressure, driven by the stalemate around the Strait of Hormuz and tougher rhetoric from Washington toward Iran. Despite all this, equity indices are holding up surprisingly well. One theme attracting increasing attention is the “return to hard assets” , with Bitcoin and precious metals among the assets performing relatively well. Eurozone data are better than individual readings from France and Germany might suggest. The composite PMI rose to 52.1, with manufacturing performing particularly well, especially in Germany. Services remain the weaker part of the picture, with readings in both of the region’s largest economies falling below 50. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could give the ECB slightly more room for manoeuvre, making the overall setup moderately supportive for European assets. U.S. Treasury yields are rising again, even though Scott Bessent suggested that debt buybacks could be increased further and mentioned the possibility of fiscal consolidation. Basic resources are the strongest sector, gaining around 1.5%, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and higher gold prices, with bullion up nearly 1% today and approaching $4,600 per ounce. The situation around Iran is creating additional pressure. Bessent announced the “toughest sanctions in history,” reducing hopes for a rapid and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is trading slightly lower after the rollover but remains above $90. More expensive energy is once again increasing inflation risks, putting upward pressure on yields and potentially weighing on margins in parts of the corporate sector. ASML is gaining around 1.5% despite reports surrounding potential U.S. efforts to take further steps in the sector. Germany and the broader eurozone are issuing record amounts of debt, adding to upward pressure on bond yields. The yield on 30-year German Bunds has reached around 3.8%, the highest since 2011, while long-term French yields are close to 5%. Higher financing costs mean more expensive borrowing for governments, companies and households, which could eventually act as a drag on economic activity. EU50 chart (D1 interval) Bulls in Euro Stoxx 50 futures are clearly trying to reclaim the 6,500-point area. The EMA50, shown by the orange line, provides an important support zone around 6,400 points, while the 6,600 area, corresponding to the latest highs, remains the key medium-term resistance. Source: xStation5 European macro data The eurozone flash composite PMI rose to 52.1 in August versus expectations of 51.7, pointing to a somewhat stronger pace of economic activity. The French manufacturing business climate index rose to 103 points, above expectations of 101 and the previous reading of 101. France’s flash manufacturing PMI increased to 51.5 from 49.8, beating the 50.0 consensus and moving back above the expansion threshold. France’s flash services PMI fell to 48.4, below expectations of 49.4 and the previous reading of 49.6. The French flash composite PMI slipped to 48.8 versus 49.5 expected and 49.4 previously, indicating continued weakness in overall activity despite the improvement in manufacturing. Germany’s flash services PMI fell to 48.5, below expectations of 50.1 and the previous reading of 49.8, remaining in contraction territory. Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose to 54.1 from 52.2, clearly beating the 52.1 consensus and signaling stronger expansion in the sector. Germany’s composite PMI eased to 51.0 versus 51.3 expected and 51.3 previously, meaning overall activity is still expanding, but at a slightly slower pace than the market had anticipated. Eurozone one-year inflation expectations fell to 2.9% in July from 3.0%, while three-year expectations eased to 2.7% from 2.8%, suggesting a modest improvement in the medium-term inflation outlook. The Euro Stoxx 50 remains close to historical highs, trading only around 1.3% below its record, while 64% of its constituents remain above the SMA200 and 62% above the SMA50, indicating that market breadth is still relatively healthy. Valuation does not look extreme compared with the U.S., but it is no longer cheap either: a P/E of 19.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.8x suggest investors are already paying a clear premium for the quality and resilience of Europe’s largest companies. Today, technology is down around 3.6% and industrials around 2.7%, while energy gains 1.5% and healthcare 1.7%, highlighting a visible rotation away from more yield-sensitive segments toward defensives and commodities. Interestingly, technology remains one of the strongest sectors year to date, with a gain of around 30%, even though its current P/E is as high as 47x, meaning the market has little tolerance for disappointment in this part of the index. Financials, by contrast, trade at a P/E of around 11.7x and have delivered solid returns this year, which could continue to attract capital if bond yields remain elevated. Source: XTB Research Today’s Euro Stoxx 50 structure points to clear stock selection rather than a broad-based index move. Banks dominate the gainers, with Santander up 2.2%, BNP Paribas 1.0% and BBVA 1.0%, while Bayer, L’Oréal and Rheinmetall are among the weaker names. Valuation differences are significant, which matters in the current yield environment: Santander and BNP trade at P/E multiples of around 10.9x and 9.5x respectively, while Siemens Energy and Rheinmetall remain considerably more expensive at roughly 59.2x and 77.9x. Capital still appears willing to move toward sectors offering more reasonable valuations and visible earnings improvement rather than paying indiscriminately for growth. Source: XTB Research Germany attempts to rebound DAX futures (DE40) enter Friday’s session higher after Thursday’s 0.4% decline to 25,983 points, when rising oil prices and another increase in bond yields weighed on the market. On the corporate side, Fresenius is attracting attention as it continues to reduce its stake in Fresenius Medical Care. The company sold around 7.8 million FMC shares worth close to EUR 300 million to institutional investors. Bond supply is expected to remain very high in the coming years. Commerzbank estimates that gross German government bond issuance will rise to a record EUR 400 billion in 2027 from EUR 349 billion in 2026, while Barclays expects gross eurozone issuance to reach a record EUR 1.54 trillion. At the same time, the ECB continues to shrink its balance sheet and is no longer fully reinvesting maturing securities, meaning private investors must absorb an increasingly large share of new supply. The market is already showing signs of greater caution. Germany recently sold EUR 3.8 billion of 10-year bonds versus EUR 6 billion planned, while some asset managers are avoiding the very long end of the curve. The main drivers of this supply are higher defence and infrastructure spending, rising social costs and persistently large fiscal deficits, particularly in France, where the deficit is expected to remain above 5%. DE40 chart (D1 interval) DAX futures are attempting to erase yesterday’s losses. The key short-term resistance area is around 26,300 points. Source: xStation5 Fresenius Medical Care shares (FME.DE) Source: xStation5 CTS Eventim attempts to recover after quarterly results CTS Eventim, one of Europe’s largest entertainment and ticketing groups, is among the more interesting German names following its latest results. In the first half of the year, revenue increased by 16.9% to EUR 1.513 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose by 12.4% to EUR 225.4 million and EPS climbed by 34.2% to EUR 1.25. Jefferies maintained its Buy recommendation after the report with a EUR 100 price target, but the market reaction has been far from euphoric. Operationally, the results were solid, but the EBITDA margin declined to 14.9% from 15.5%. CTS Eventim delivered another solid second quarter, although growth slowed noticeably compared with the start of the year. Revenue increased by around 13% year over year to just over EUR 899 million, adjusted EBITDA rose by around 6% to more than EUR 106 million, and net profit jumped 30% to EUR 56.7 million. Ticketing remains the main growth engine, supported additionally by preparations for the Los Angeles Olympic Games. The shares initially fell almost 10%, then recovered most of the losses and were down around 1% by late morning, while still trading roughly 27% lower year to date. Investors do not appear to be questioning the quality of the business, but they are becoming increasingly sensitive to the pace of growth and valuation, which remains relatively demanding with a P/E close to 20x. The numbers were also better than expected. According to Berenberg, revenue came in around 8% above consensus, while JPMorgan argued that business momentum remains intact. The key issue is that revenue growth slowed from 23% in the first quarter to 13% in the second, while EBITDA increased much more slowly than sales. Investors want to see that rising scale translates into stronger margin expansion and faster EBITDA growth. Expectations around a high-quality business have been set high, so even a moderate slowdown in growth is being punished quickly. If ticketing continues to expand and margins begin to improve again, the current valuation reset could eventually look more constructive. CTS Eventim shares (EVD.DE, D1 interval) The shares are trading around 50% below their historical peak and roughly 15% below the 200-session moving average. Higher bond yields are not helping the stock, but the underlying business continues to grow despite the weakness in the market valuation. Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 21, 2026

US Dollar: Limited upside as fiscal plans questioned – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that the US Dollar has weakened as investors focus on potential US Treasury measures to stem the decline in Treasury yields, while Japanese inflation data supports expectations for a 25bp BoJ rate hike in September. He remains sceptical that the US will deliver credible fiscal consolidation and sees limited scope for further EUR/USD upside in the near term. Dollar pressured by fiscal doubts "The US dollar has weakened further today after stabilising yesterday with investors focused on potential further action by the US Treasury to stem the decline in UST bond yields." "Yields are broadly unchanged today although JGB yields have jumped following the release of nationwide CPI data for July which revealed a rebound back toward the 2.0% level. The core-core CPI rate jumped to 1.9% with underlying inflation lifted by certain foods and dining out." "The data backs up current market pricing, and our view, that the BoJ will hike rates by 25bps at the next policy meeting in September." "The US now looks to be signalling it is heading in the opposite direction after Scott Bessent stated that the Treasury would announce today or early next week “an increased focus on fiscal consolidation”." "Obviously, we, like many market participants, are very sceptical of the US announcing anything of any significance that would lead to credible fiscal consolidation." “A US fiscal initiative that lacks credibility won’t help UST bonds or the dollar but the appetite to sell the dollar remains contained by Middle East risks. For Europe that is evident through the steady rise in natural gas prices.” "It’s difficult to envisage in these circumstances much further upside for EUR/USD over the short-term."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

United Kingdom: Burnham sentiment bounce – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a sharp improvement in sentiment towards Prime Minister Burnham and Labour. Their dbDIG household survey shows optimism about stronger United Kingdom (UK) economic growth under the new government, but households are notably more cautious about their own personal finances, with optimism skewed towards younger and higher-income respondents. Households optimistic on UK growth "Just a month into his premiership, Prime Minister Burnham has already seen a bounce in sentiment. The latest polls now have Labour as the most popular party, ahead of Reform for the first time in about 18 months." "PM Burnham’s popularity has fed through into the economy too. Our own dbDIG household survey highlighted two things." "First, when asked whether Burnham would be able to deliver stronger economic growth in the UK than the previous government, households were optimistic. In fact, with a positive net balance of 21%, more households are confident that the new government can deliver better economic growth, particularly among younger respondents (those aged 18-34). Across income groups, higher-income households are the most optimistic, with those earning more than GBP 50k reporting a net balance of +37% on economic optimism." "Second, when it comes to households’ own personal finances, the responses are more mixed, suggesting an interesting paradox between perceptions of economic growth and their own financial outlook. Across the survey as a whole, only 2% more households think they will be financially better off under the new government. The results vary significantly across cohorts, with younger respondents the most optimistic and older age groups considerably less so." "Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

United States: Yields risk renewed surge – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior US Strategist Philip Marey discusses United States (US) Treasuries, noting that the Treasury Department’s surprise move to boost buybacks of longer-term bonds has only briefly interrupted rising yields. Marey highlights unchanged macro fundamentals such as elevated inflation, widening budget deficits and AI-related investment demand, and argues that unpredictable issuance and limited buyback firepower could ultimately push yields higher and force Federal Reserve (Fed) intervention. Treasury buybacks and yield dynamics "The Treasury Department’s extraordinary announcement to unexpectedly boost buybacks of longer-term bonds has only temporarily interrupted the rise in yields." "The real question is: can yields be stopped from rising when the macroeconomic fundamentals − elevated inflation, rising budget deficits, AI-related investment demand − remain entirely unchanged?" "While Congress and the White House actually have the power to address some of these fundamental drivers, the Treasury has resorted to market intervention instead." "This introduces a whole new set of complications. By making debt issuance less predictable, it fuels market volatility. Ironically, this could force investors to demand an even higher risk premium on Treasury yields." "The ultimate problem with the Treasury’s intervention is that it costs money. For now, the Treasury is funding this by shifting from longer-term debt to shorter-term debt. But with the total federal debt constrained by the debt ceiling, the Treasury will eventually run out of ammunition."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

Swedish Krona: Riksbank keeps tightening option open – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke reports that the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and maintained a restrictive stance, still seeing a hike later this year as likely. Riksbank is ready to tighten further if inflation proves more persistent, with decisions linked to Middle East conflict developments, though the latest move is seen as neutral for the Swedish Krona (SEK). Policy rate on hold but guidance hawkish "As expected, the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% yesterday. It maintained its restrictive stance and still considers an interest rate hike later this year to be likely. The Riksbank is even prepared to take further tightening measures: If the unexpectedly high inflation during the summer were to be the start of a larger and more lasting upturn in inflation, the Riksbank would adjust its monetary policy in a tighter direction." "Both growth and inflation have been higher than was forecast in June, and there is still a risk of underlying inflation becoming too high in the wake of the supply shocks." "When and by how much the Riksbank will raise the policy rate will depend on developments in the Middle East conflict, which it identifies as the primary and most significant source of uncertainty. By the time of its next meeting in late September, the Riksbank will have more information available to help it decide when the time might be right for a first rate hike." "The interest rate decision was in line with market expectations, so it should have a neutral impact on the SEK. Furthermore, a change in interest rate expectations has only a minor impact on the SEK, as my colleague Michael explained this week in an FX Hotspot."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

Japanese Yen: Weakness offsets intervention impact – MUFG

MUFG's Michael Wan notes that US longer-end yields have returned close to pre-buyback levels, with the 10-year at 4.7% and 30-year at 5.24%, weighing on risk assets. From an FX angle, the Dollar Index’s (DXY) recovery is seen as largely driven by Japanese Yen (JPY) underperformance, with USD/JPY nearing 159 and EUR/JPY rising toward 185.71, despite recent joint FX intervention. Underperformance drives Dollar strength "From an FX perspective, the Dollar Index initially sold off but subsequently rose through the trading session, but we note that this seems to reflect factors specific to Japanese Yen underperformance, with USD/JPY rising closer to the 159 levels, and EUR/JPY in particular rising to 185.71 levels." "Overall, there is no irony lost that in both cases of key market intervention over the past month that levels are now closer to that seen before the action – first in the joint FX-intervention in the Japanese Yen between the US and Japan on 30 July, and second through the buyback announcement in the US Treasury market on 19 August." "The big picture as the global team and ourselves have been saying is that fundamentals matter, and for intervention to truly work in changing market trends be it as it may in FX or rates some underlying macro has to shift."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

Swiss Franc: Funding role grows as volatility stays low – ING

Chris Turner at ING explains that USD/CHF’s sharp drop after the US Treasury buy-back announcement was mainly position adjustment after a hawkish Fed narrative had favoured longs. If Treasury support is risk-positive, low volatility should sustain carry trades, with the Swiss Franc (CHF) increasingly preferred over the Japanese Yen (JPY) as a funding currency and EUR/CHF seen returning toward the 0.9400 area. Swiss Franc seen as key funding currency "Wednesday's US Treasury announcement on buy-backs saw USD/CHF lead the dollar lower. This recalled events of April 2025, when concerns over policy credibility hit all US [asset] classes and the dollar and the Swiss franc were preferred. Our take on this week's events is different." "We think the sharp sell-off in USD/CHF was driven by position adjustment after the June narrative of a more hawkish Fed had favoured USD/CHF longs." "If we're right that greater interest in protecting the Treasury market is more a risk-positive story, then volatility will stay low, and interest will remain firm in the carry trade." "Here, we think the Swiss franc rather than the yen will increasingly become the preferred funding currency and send EUR/CHF back to 0.9400. We are encouraged by the EUR/CHF bounce back above 0.9350 since Wednesday."

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Forex Trading

August 21, 2026

European PMIs stronger than expected. EUR/USD approaches 1.17 level

The eurozone flash composite PMI rose to 52.1 in August, beating the 51.7 forecast and pointing to a somewhat stronger pace of overall economic activity. The French manufacturing business climate index rose to 103 points, above expectations of 101 and the previous reading of 101. France’s flash manufacturing PMI increased to 51.5 from 49.8, clearly beating the 50.0 consensus and moving back above the expansion threshold. France’s flash services PMI fell to 48.4, below expectations of 49.4 and the previous 49.6 reading. The French flash composite PMI slipped to 48.8 versus 49.5 expected and 49.4 previously, pointing to continued weakness in overall activity despite the improvement in manufacturing. Germany’s flash services PMI fell to 48.5, below expectations of 50.1 and the previous reading of 49.8, remaining in contraction territory. Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI rose to 54.1 from 52.2, clearly beating the 52.1 consensus and signaling stronger expansion in the sector. Germany’s flash composite PMI eased to 51.0 versus 51.3 expected and 51.3 previously, meaning overall activity is still expanding, but at a slightly slower pace than the market had anticipated. Eurozone 1-year inflation expectations fell to 2.9% in July from 3.0% previously, while 3-year expectations eased to 2.7% from 2.8%, suggesting a modest improvement in the medium-term inflation outlook. What does European PMIs show? The eurozone data are better than the headlines from France and Germany might initially suggest. The flash composite PMI at 52.1 points to a broader improvement in activity, and the strongest part of the picture is clearly manufacturing, where both France and Germany surprised to the upside. Germany’s manufacturing PMI at 54.1 is especially important because it suggests that the industrial side of Europe’s largest economy is finally gaining some traction after a long period of weakness. The services side is much less convincing. France remains in contraction, Germany also slipped below 50, and that matters because services are the larger part of both economies. So this is not a clean acceleration story yet. It looks more like a recovery that is becoming increasingly dependent on industry while domestic demand and services remain softer. The inflation expectations data are quietly supportive. One-year expectations fell to 2.9% and three-year expectations to 2.7%, which suggests that households are not becoming more worried about a renewed inflation spiral. That gives the ECB a little more breathing room, especially if growth continues to improve without a corresponding rebound in inflation expectations. My read is that the eurozone is moving into a more balanced phase: growth is no longer obviously weak, but it is also not strong enough to remove policy concerns. The most constructive development is that manufacturing is improving at the same time as inflation expectations are easing. If that combination persists, it would be a much healthier backdrop for European equities than a recovery driven by higher prices or fiscal stimulus alone. EURUSD (D1 interval) Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 21, 2026

US Dollar: Consolidation around 99.00 after buyback news – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Chang Wei Liang notes that the Dollar has firmed slightly as US Treasury yields recover, with DXY consolidating near 99.00 after the US Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks. He argues buyback tweaks have only transient market impact without fiscal change, and warns tighter US sanctions on Iran could lift inflation expectations, US yields and the Dollar. DXY tracks long-end yield recovery "The USD has firmed up slightly, tracking a modest recovery in long-end US Treasury yields. " "As we expected, DXY is consolidating around 99.00 following the US Treasury’s announcement of an expansion of long end bond buybacks." "Without any meaningful change to the US fiscal trajectory (given that the US budget is set by Congress and not the Treasury), tweaks around buybacks can only have a small, transient impact on markets." "Meanwhile, an expected tightening of US sanctions on Iran to be announced on Monday could pose unintended consequences, including risks of bolstering inflation expectations that lift both US yields and the USD."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

Japanese Yen: September BoJ risk builds – Commerzbank

Volkmar Baur at Commerzbank argues that July inflation and strong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data in Japan suggest price dynamics would not block a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. While he still expects the BoJ to raise rates only in the fourth quarter, he concedes that the latest data would not preclude an earlier move in September, keeping Japanese Yen (JPY) policy risks in focus. Inflation and PMI support rate hike case "Admittedly, today’s inflation figures from Japan are probably of little significance. First, they are for July, while Tokyo’s August figures are due out next week." "And second, the nationwide August figures will also be available when the Bank of Japan meets for its next policy meeting on September 18. But at least today’s figures make it clear that inflation would not stand in the way of an interest rate hike, even in September." "The overall inflation rate rose to 1.9%, and the picture is similar for core rates - excluding fresh food (1.8%) and, additionally, excluding energy (1.9%) - with the rate of price increases appearing to stabilize at the desired 2%." "Added to this were quite positive figures released this morning from the purchasing managers’ indices, which point to a continued positive economic trend. The PMI for the manufacturing sector improved once again and, at 55.1, is back at a very good level, while the services component improved by more than one index point to 52.3." "We still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates only in the fourth quarter. However, today’s data would not preclude a rate hike as early as four weeks from now."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

British Pound: Upward momentum targets 1.3700 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports GBP/USD at 1.3640 remains supported after breaking key resistance levels, with intraday gains likely capped between 1.3605 and 1.3670. Over the next 1–3 weeks, he expects the Pound to continue rising toward 1.3700, provided it holds above 1.3570, while longer-term signals still point to range trading. Pound advance eyes major resistance "24-HOUR VIEW: GBP soared to a high of 1.3630 two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: “The sharp rise appears to be overdone. This, combined with deeply overbought conditions, suggests that instead of continuing to rise, GBP is more likely to consolidate between 1.3570 and 1.3630.” Our view of consolidation was incorrect as GBP rose to a high of 1.3661. GBP closed 0.19% higher at 1.3632. Further GBP strength is not ruled out, but deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance could be contained within a 1.3605/1.3670 range. Even if GBP breaks above 1.3670, it is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.3700." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted on Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540) that “the upside bias in GBP remains intact, but any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3600.” After GBP surged and broke above 1.3600, we highlighted yesterday (19 Aug, spot at 1.3600) that “further GBP strength remains likely, but with negative divergence forming on momentum indicators, this time around, any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3655.” We underestimated the strength of the upward momentum as GBP subsequently broke above 1.3655 with a high of 1.3661. Having surpassed 1.3655, GBP could continue to rise toward 1.3700. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold above 1.3570 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3535 yesterday)."

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Banks

August 21, 2026

Euro: Gentle upside against US Dollar as greenback softens – ING

ING’s Chris Turner says EUR/USD remains well supported by broad Dollar softness. Expected mild eurozone growth in the August PMIs and elevated inflation expectations keep the case for another European Central Bank (ECB) hike alive. EUR/USD is seen consolidating in the 1.1670-1.1710 range before potentially edging higher, although high natural gas prices remain a risk. Euro supported by soft Dollar story "EUR/USD remains well supported, and, as above, we favour the kind of benign decline in the dollar that tends to float all boats. Not that anyone is expecting it, but should some true US fiscal consolidation emerge, the combination of tighter fiscal policy and looser monetary policy would be dollar-negative." "Fiscal consolidation seems unlikely though, with Washington wanting to spread its pro-growth mindset to the entire G20 when finance ministers and central bank governors meet later this month." "Today's eurozone data calendar focuses on the August PMIs. For the eurozone as a whole, these are expected to indicate a continued mild expansion and one which supports another European Central Bank hike in September. " "There will also be focus on the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey, where three-year inflation expectations reached 3.0% in March and are expected to remain elevated at 2.8%." "EUR/USD can consolidate in a tight 1.1670-1.1710 range today, before potentially edging higher." "With emerging market currencies performing well, we prefer a continued gentle rise in EUR/USD. High natural gas prices remain a concern, but since the eurozone economy seems to be coping with these better now, EUR/USD can focus on the soft dollar story."

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Cryptocurrencies

August 21, 2026

Chart of the Day: Bitcoin Breaches $75K to Challenge 300-EMA First Time Since January

Bitcoin is gaining nearly 4% today, approaching its 300-day exponential moving average for the first time since the beginning of the year. The rebound in the cryptocurrency market stems both from White House pressure to pass an official regulatory framework for digital assets and capital outflows from the dollar amid concerns over US public finances. What is driving Bitcoin's gains today? Regulatory Momentum: Donald Trump pressured Congress to pass the Clarity Act, which would establish a legal framework for digital assets. The White House's engagement in talks with crypto executives and political momentum provided the market with a long-awaited boost of optimism. Macro & Debasement Trade: Recent dollar weakness and pressure on yields following the US Treasury Department's announcement of accelerated bond buybacks injected liquidity and reinforced the "debasement trade" amid fears of a growing US budget deficit. Short Squeeze & Technical Breakout: The sudden price surge also triggered a short squeeze, liquidating nearly $1 billion in short positions betting on further Bitcoin weakness in a matter of hours. Forced buying and Bitcoin's charge above its 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages heightened optimism, lifting the price above key resistance around $75,000. Technical Analysis: BITCOIN (D1) Bitcoin broke sharply above previous resistance levels, testing the key zone highlighted by the yellow area (approx. 73,200–77,400), where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 300-day EMA reside. Maintaining a position in this zone will be essential to preserving bullish momentum, while a close above the EMA200 should secure recent gains. A retreat toward the EMA200 could exert profit-taking pressure, which—given the heavily overbought RSI (83 points)—would favor a local pullback. Nevertheless, supportive fundamentals, including regulatory catalysts, a weak dollar, and concerns over US debt, should offer solid support over a longer horizon. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Economic Calendar – A Batch of PMI reports will move attention away from bonds?

Recent sessions have been marked by stress surrounding the rising cost of servicing global debt. A rapid rebound in US yields—despite announcements of accelerated bond buybacks—underscored that the market's patience with public finances is running out, with investors expecting real structural changes rather than financial engineering. Declines on Wall Street have stabilized somewhat, and today's wave of macro data will attempt to shift focus away from the spotlight on bonds. Following inflation data from Japan and UK retail sales, the main event remains a series of flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports across major economies. Key Releases from the Asian Session & Morning: Japan: July CPI inflation rose to 1.9% y/y (previously 1.6%), while core CPI settled at 1.8% y/y, matching market forecasts. August's preliminary Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 55.1 pts (from 54.5 pts), signaling strong health in the manufacturing sector. New Zealand: The July trade balance disappointed sharply, revealing a deep deficit of -NZD 1,949 million (against an expected surplus of NZD 320 million). The preliminary Services PMI fell in August to 52.9 pts (from 53.6 pts), while Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.0 pts. United Kingdom: Retail sales came in below forecasts, reversing sharply after the previous session's very strong reading. On a monthly basis, sales dropped by -0.5% (consensus: -0.3%, previous: +1.0%), while year-over-year growth slowed to 1.6% (consensus: 2.3%, previous: 4.2%). However, the data had little negative impact on sterling, which continues to gain against most G10 currencies (GBP/USD: +0.1%). Macroeconomic Calendar (all times CET): 08:45 France - Business Confidence Index (August). Consensus: 100 | Previous: 101 09:00 Poland - BIEC Welfare Index (August). Previous: 93.6 09:15 France - Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 49.9 | Previous: 49.8 09:15 France - Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 49.7 | Previous: 49.6 09:30 Germany - Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 52.0 | Previous: 52.2 09:30 Germany - Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 50.2 | Previous: 49.8 09:30 Poland - Business Climate Index (August) 10:00 Eurozone - Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.9 | Previous: 51.9 10:00 Eurozone - Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.5 | Previous: 51.7 10:30 United Kingdom - Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.6 | Previous: 51.9 10:30 United Kingdom - Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.9 | Previous: 52.1 15:45 USA - Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 53.9 | Previous: 53.9 15:45 USA - Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 54.0 | Previous: 54.6 19:00 USA - Baker Hughes Rig Count. Consensus: 456 | Previous: 455 3 Markets to Watch Today: EUR/USD (FX) – Investors face a marathon of flash PMI indicators from both the Eurozone and the US. Morning readings from France (09:15), Germany (09:30), and the broader Eurozone (10:00) will go head-to-head this afternoon with data from the US economy (15:45). Any divergence in economic activity will set the trajectory for the eurodollar heading into the weekend. GBP/USD (FX) – Sterling remains under the immediate influence of UK retail sales data. Further volatility will be driven at 10:30 by preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings. Any deterioration in sentiment across the UK services sector could weigh on sterling's valuation before the weekend. Crude Oil / WTI (Commodities) – Commodity prices will react to the comprehensive wave of PMI indices highlighting actual manufacturing activity across major economies. An additional catalyst late in the session will be the weekly Baker Hughes US rig count report at 19:00 (consensus: 456).

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Bitcoin surges to $75k, Wall Street tries to stabilize

Yesterday's session on Wall Street ended distinctly weaker. Bond yields quickly bounced back after an earlier dip, as investors concluded that the Treasury Department's actions might offer only short-term support for the debt market. The S&P 500 lost about 0.9%, with sentiment further dampened by a sharp decline in Walmart shares following a weaker quarterly report. 📊 Indices and Companies Wall Street index futures paused after yesterday's sell-off, entering the European session slightly in the green. The marginal gains reflect persistent pressure in the debt market—US Treasury yields erased most of the losses caused by the announcement of accelerated buybacks by the Treasury Department. The Russell 2000 is rebounding the most (US2000: +0.35%) alongside Nasdaq (US100: +0.15%), while the DJIA (US30) and S&P 500 (US500) remain flat. Asian markets are closing Friday's session slightly higher. South Korea's KOSPI is leading the bounce (+0.8%). China is also trading in the green (CHN.cash: +0.6%, HK.cash: +0.5%), while the cash Nikkei 225 is losing around 0.25% amid rising CPI inflation. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics (both +3%) fueled gains in Korea in response to massive shareholder-return plans. In Hong Kong, Alibaba fell 3% following a >75% drop in quarterly profit driven by a surge in AI capex ($10B), while developer Henderson Land jumped over 7% on solid H1 results. European index futures are recording modest gains ahead of the cash market open. Focus will shift to preliminary service and manufacturing PMI data from major European economies (UK, France, Germany, Eurozone), followed by the US. Preliminary European consumer sentiment data will be published at 4:00 PM CEST. Nvidia denied reports that it is developing a specialized LPU product exclusively for the Chinese market. The company emphasized that such a chip is not currently on its product roadmap and that earlier reports were incorrect. Broadcom is reportedly in talks to finance its latest AI project valued at over $60 billion, with the structure potentially including around $30 billion in junior debt and a secured senior tranche. Blackstone and Apollo may potentially participate in the financing, highlighting the scale of capital needed to further build out AI infrastructure. 🌍 Economy and Geopolitics Japanese core CPI inflation accelerated in July to 1.8% YoY (headline to 1.9%), reinforcing the case for BOJ monetary policy tightening. The OIS market currently prices in an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike at the central bank's upcoming September meeting. Japan's Flash Composite PMI rose to 53.4 in August (up from 52.7 in July), reaching a 6-month high. Growth was driven by manufacturing (PMI 55.1) thanks to the strongest export orders since 2018 (AI and semiconductor sector). Services also accelerated (PMI 52.3). Cost pressures eased to a 5-month low, while business optimism reached its highest level since February. 💱 Currencies and Commodities The Dollar Index is returning to declines (USDIDX: -0.1%), signaling further capital outflows from the US following recent shifts in the debt market. Antipodean currencies are the strongest today, supported by local PMI data (AUDUSD, NZDUSD: +0.4%). USDJPY is trading flat just below 159.00. EURUSD is approaching 1.1700 again (+0.15%). Gold (GOLD +0.3% today, +2.7% for the week) — The metal reached its highest levels since June (price: $4,536) and is heading for its third consecutive week of gains. Profits are driven by dollar weakness and investor positioning for the "debasement trade" amid concerns over US public finances. Silver (SILVER +1% today, +4.8% for the week) — Continues strong, three-day gains, approaching $69 per ounce amid elevated market volatility, driven by fundamentals similar to gold. Brent crude (OIL -1.6% today) — Recording daily losses despite reports of slowing tanker traffic in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. Support for battery metals: The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced $500 million in grant awards for domestic lithium and cobalt processing, as well as battery manufacturing projects. Natural gas (NATGAS, NATGAS.EU) – Futures are trading flat, cooling off after yesterday's gains, particularly in European contracts. 🪙 Cryptocurrencies BITCOIN (BITCOIN +3.43% today, +16.94% for the week) — Bitcoin rebounds sharply to $75,120. Cryptocurrencies are gaining as investors flee fiscal risks tied to US debt. CURVE DAO (CURVEDAO +14.03% today, +30.28% for the week) — Leading daily gains among altcoins, staging a strong recovery after a long-term decline. Dynamic altcoin rally: The broader crypto sector is registering strong, double-digit weekly gains, led by ETHEREUM (+1.58% today, +23.68% for the week) and RIPPLE (+4.27% today, +31.03% for the week). Bitcoin chart (D1 interval) Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Copper Rises as Supply Concerns Persist

Copper futures climbed above $6.5 per pound on Friday, recovering losses from earlier in the week as tight physical supply continued to underpin prices. The copper market remains vulnerable after months of outflows, partly due to metal being diverted to the US ahead of anticipated tariffs. Top producer Chile also expects copper output to decline this year as ongoing disruptions continue to weigh on mines and development projects. However, a recent increase in metal deliveries to London Metal Exchange warehouses helped ease a historic supply squeeze. Elsewhere, copper prices were supported by a weaker dollar as skepticism over the US government’s bond buyback plan reduced the greenback’s appeal, boosting demand for metals and other currencies. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments as the US prepares sweeping new economic sanctions against Iran, pushing oil prices higher and adding to inflation concerns.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Platinum Hits 11-Week High

Platinum futures climbed above $1,870 an ounce, hitting an eleven-week high, as a weaker US dollar and renewed demand for precious metals lifted the market. The greenback came under pressure amid concerns over the US fiscal outlook and skepticism about the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback program, which investors viewed as unlikely to provide a lasting solution to elevated borrowing costs. Lower yields earlier in the week also boosted demand for non-yielding assets, while expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep rates unchanged in September further supported precious metals. Platinum was additionally underpinned by a tight global supply-demand balance, with persistent supply deficits and low inventories limiting available metal. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices continued to fuel inflation and economic uncertainty, encouraging demand for precious metals as a hedge.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Palm Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Gain in Near Six Months

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their gains, trading around MYR 4,990 per tonne and reaching their highest level since December 2024. The contract is also on track for its biggest weekly rise in 24 weeks, up nearly 6% so far, marking its third straight weekly advance. The rally was supported by strength in Dalian vegetable oils, while in top producer Indonesia, buyers have stepped up purchases ahead of the full implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate in October. Meanwhile, the developing El Niño raised concerns of worsening dryness that could curb output in Indonesia and Malaysia. Still, upside was capped by ample supply, with Malaysian inventories climbing to a five-month high in July. Demand risks also weighed, as India’s refiners may favor cheaper soyoil, with record imports expected in August. Meanwhile, cargo surveyors estimated palm oil shipments during August?1–20 fell 5.5%–13.2% from the same period in July, underscoring weak export momentum.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Technical Analysis – Silver Rises 2% Despite Dollar Rebound – Key Resistance Broken?

Precious metals had an excellent session yesterday, supported by the U.S. Treasury Department’s announcement of an intervention in the Treasury market aimed at bringing yields lower. Interestingly, today’s rebound in the dollar — additionally supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. macro data — has not stopped silver prices from advancing. On the contrary, despite a modest decline in gold, silver — which often tends to amplify moves in gold — is continuing higher today and has broken above a key resistance level: the 200-session EMA200, shown by the red line on the chart. If the $70 per ounce barrier is cleared, the next resistance based on price action could come only around $78. The $65–66 area remains an important support zone in the event of a cooling in short-term momentum. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Cattle Firms up

Live cattle futures posted gains of 77 cent to $1.125 at the close, with August 7 cents lower. Cash trade has picked up a few at $355-360 dressed and $226. The Thursday morning Fed Cattle Exchange online auction showed no sales on the 1,520 head offered, with bids of $223 to 225. Feeder cattle futures were down $1.55 to $2.12 higher across the board. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another 51 cents on August 19 to $341.85.  Export Sales data from USDA showed beef sales for 2026 at 9,299 MT for the week ending on 8/13. That was a 5-week low. Mexico was the buyer of 1,600 MT, with 1,400 MT to South Korea. Shipments were tallied at 12,646 MT, which was a 6-week high. South Korea was the destination of 3,600 MT, with 3,200 MT headed to Japan. Cattle on Feed data will be released on Friday, with traders looking for July placements down 6.7% and marketings down 7.2% from a year ago. August 1 on feed data is seen up 2.4%. \ Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel narrowing to $26.19. Choice boxes were down $5.06 at $389.93, with Select 43 cents lower to $363.74. USDA’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter for Thursday was estimated at 103,000 head, taking the total to 412,000 head for the week. That is down 4,000 head from the previous week and 39,893 head below the same week last year. Aug 26 Live Cattle  closed at $223.350, down $0.075, Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $218.000, up $0.775, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $218.275, up $1.125, Aug 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $335.300, down $1.550, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $328.925, down $0.200, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $322.700, up $0.650,

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Arabica Coffee Settles Higher on Supply Concerns

September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up +4.10 (+1.14%) on Thursday, and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed down -16 (-0.43%). Coffee prices settled mixed on Thursday.  Arabica coffee closed higher as it consolidated below Wednesday’s 6.5-month high, and robusta is under pressure from rising inventories as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 5.25-month high of 4,622 lots on Tuesday. Gains in arabica were limited as drier weather in Brazil has allowed for the pace of the country’s coffee harvest to accelerate.  Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reported on Wednesday that 81.1% of the harvest was complete as of Aug 14, up 7 points from the prior week but still down slightly from 86.1% a year earlier. Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should speed up the pace of the country's coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 0.6 mm of rain, or 11% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 16 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. On Wednesday, arabica prices surged to a 6.5-month high as the slow pace of Brazil's coffee harvest is limiting coffee supplies.  Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%.  Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%.  Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 229,214 bags on Tuesday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 5.25-month high of 4,622 lots on Tuesday. Coffee prices also have support from last Monday's devastating earthquake in Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica beans.  Among the areas hit by Monday's 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report last Thursday quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Smaller Ghana Cocoa Crop Supports Prices

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up +42 (+0.69) on Thursday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed up +20 (+0.47%). Cocoa prices rallied to 2-week highs on Thursday and settled higher on concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.  Ghana’s Cocoa Board said Thursday that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT last year.    Gains in London cocoa were limited on Thursday after the British pound (^GBPUSD) rallied to a 6-month high.  The stronger pound undercuts cocoa that is priced in sterling. Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Also, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  On the bearish side, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5. In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Sugar Prices Extend Recent Rally as India Eases Sugar Import Duties

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed down -0.03 (-0.17%) on Thursday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +10.00 (+1.84%). Sugar prices added to this week’s gains on Thursday, with NY sugar posting a 15-month high and London sugar posting a 17-month high.  However, prices fell from their best levels and settled mixed on profit-taking by commodity funds in a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact move. The prospects of tighter global supplies are underpinning sugar prices after the Indian government said on Thursday that it will cut import duties on sugar to boost supplies and lower prices ahead of an expected surge in demand during festival season.  India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said it will allow up to 1 MMT of raw sugar imports into the country free of any taxes until October 31. The move is a further sign of the supply strain facing the global sugar market, as India is usually a sugar exporter and last imported sugar in substantial volumes during the 2017-18 season. Sugar prices have surged this month, driven by the outlook for tighter future sugar supplies.  On August 3, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists on July 29 raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT.  StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.  Sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. India’s Meteorological Department reported on Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 13% below normal as of August 19, a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30.  On July 31, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  Last Friday, Czarnikow predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of -2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings.  The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on August 6 that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX last Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Gold advances to fresh high since June amid renewed USD selling, fading Fed hike bets

Gold regains positive traction as the USD hangs near a three-month low amid receding Fed rate-hike bets. Inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices support US bond yields, which could help limit USD losses. The US-Iran standoff keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and warrants some caution for USD bears. Gold (XAU/USD) hits a fresh high since early June, around the $4,544 region, during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the momentum above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Traders scaled back their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after the latest US inflation data released last week pointed to signs of cooling price pressures. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level in over three months, touched on Thursday, and turns out to be a key factor supporting the non-yielding bullion. Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices, bolstered by the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to this, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group claimed to have targeted eight oil tankers since declaring a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping in late July, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict and lifting oil prices to a three-week high on Thursday. This, to a large extent, overshadows the US Treasury Department's plan to double the size of some long-dated debt buyback operations and remains supportive of elevated US bond yields. Meanwhile, Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that Fed officials indicated the need to raise interest rates soon unless there was more progress on bringing down inflation. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are still pricing in around a 68% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the year-end. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, could help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven buck and hold back bullish traders from positioning for any further appreciating move for gold. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US will launch the "most crushing economic operation" against Iran. Furthermore, Trump threatened to impose severe penalties on any nation that helps Tehran evade sanctions or does business with Iran. Adding to this, Vice President JD Vance said that economic pressure is the most effective tool against Iran. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, backing the case for the emergence of some USD buying at lower levels, which, in turn, might keep a lid on the Gold price. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The XAU/USD pair seems to have found acceptance above the 200-day SMA, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June decline before placing fresh bets. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, reinforcing the upward bias. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.70 flirts with overbought territory, hinting at strong but potentially stretched bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests a constructive near-term tone. Hence, sustained strength above the 61.8% Fibo. at $4,529 should pave the way for additional gains to the 78.6% retracement at $4,687, ahead of the cycle high at $4,889. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $4,529.03, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,514.16 and then the 50% retracement near $4,417. Deeper floors emerge at the 38.2% level at $4,306.50, the 23.6% retracement around $4,168, and the structural low anchored near $3,946.

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Energies

August 21, 2026

WTI consolidates around $86.00; bulls potential intact amid US-Iran impasse

WTI steadies following the previous day’s late pullback from a three-week high. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz lends support to the commodity. The black liquid seems poised to register gains for the second successive week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – oscillates in a range around the $86.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday and remains well within striking distance of a three-week high, touched the previous day. The black liquid seems poised to register gains for the second consecutive week and build on a two-week-old uptrend amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. The US and Iran remain at loggerheads over restoring safe commercial navigation through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, fueling supply concerns and acting as a tailwind for crude oil prices. Adding to this, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group claimed to have targeted eight Saudi oil tankers since late July, when it declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the US will launch the most crushing economic operation against Iran and threatened severe penalties on any nation that helps Tehran evade sanctions or does business with Iran. Moreover, Vice President JD Vance said that economic pressure is the most effective tool against Iran. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and validates the positive outlook for oil prices. Bulls, however, seem hesitant to place fresh bets and opt to wait for fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. The broader fundamental backdrop, however, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity remains to the upside. Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into and remain limited. WTI 4-hour chart Technical Analysis WTI keeps a constructive bullish tone above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August slide and the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The cluster of underlying Fibonacci supports between $85.02 and $80.65 suggests the recent advance is underpinned by a solid structural base, with buyers retaining control while price stays north of these levels. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at $88.14, ahead of the recent swing-high region at $92.11. On the downside, initial support is seen at the reclaimed 61.8% retracement at $85.02, followed by the 50% level at $82.84 and the 200-period EMA at $81.28, with deeper floors at the 38.2% retracement at $80.65 and lower Fibonacci anchors at $77.94 and $73.56.

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Forex Trading

August 21, 2026

United States Dollar Index trades around 99.75-99.70, hangs near three-month low

DXY struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest bounce from an over three-month trough. Receding Fed-hike bets undermine the USD, though geopolitical risks help limit any further losses. Inflation risks support US bond yields, warranting caution for USD bears amid the US-Iran standoff. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's modest bounce from the vicinity of mid-98.00s, or the lowest since May 14. The index currently trades around the 98.80-98.75 region, down 0.10% for the day, and seems poised to register heavy weekly losses. Traders pared their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of soft US inflation figures last week, which is seen as acting as a headwind for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the immediate market reaction to the US Treasury Department's announcement that it will double the size of some long-dated debt buyback operations fades rather quickly amid inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices. In fact, crude oil prices touched a fresh three-week high on Thursday after President Donald Trump said that the US will launch the most crushing economic operation against Iran. Trump also threatened severe penalties on any nation that helps Iran evade sanctions or does business with Iran. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, which might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets on the safe-haven Greenback. Moreover, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors are still pricing in around a 68% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US bond yields and should limit further losses for the DXY. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for any further USD-depreciating move. DXY daily chart Technical Analysis The DXY keeps a bearish near-term tone beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 99.16 and key Fibonacci retracement levels overhead. The failed attempt to sustain above the 78.6% retracement at 98.52 earlier in the week leaves price exposed to further downside while rallies are likely to be capped by the dense cluster of resistance formed by the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% retracement at 99.22.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Silver Price – XAG/USD surges to near $69.00 amid heightened volatility

Silver jumped nearly 6% this week as investors fled volatile currency and bond markets. Massive US debt buybacks initially drove yields and the dollar lower, supporting precious metal gains. Middle East tensions and rising oil prices raise inflation risks that could cap further Silver’s upside. Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around $68.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. Silver prices rise as investors turn to safe-haven metals amid heightened volatility across global currency and bond markets. Silver price is up nearly 6% this week after the US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double its long-term debt buybacks. This move aimed to contain borrowing costs, driving Treasury yields and the dollar sharply lower. Silver continued its upward momentum even after yields reversed Wednesday’s decline, fueled by concerns that government efforts to rein in long-term borrowing costs may only offer a temporary fix. US yields rebound as Dollar slide extends after Treasury buyback move Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad observes that “US long-term Treasury yields have retraced most of Wednesday's drop triggered by the US Treasury’s buyback announcement, while USD has extended its decline.” He frames the buyback initiative as a debt-management exercise that has largely unwound the initial move in longer-dated yields even as the Dollar continues to soften, underscoring lingering market unease around the policy signal embedded in the Treasury’s action. However, further gains for non-yielding Silver could be capped by rising oil prices, which continue to highlight persistent inflationary risks and boost expectations for interest rate hikes. These energy market pressures stem from escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran over control of the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Oil supply fears persist as Iran tensions keep crude flows tight According to TD Securities, the backdrop for crude remains constrained, with “negotiations on hold for weeks and a shift toward economic pressure” reinforcing the view that “crude flows in the market will remain critically tight.” The bank also warns that “Iranian aggression in the Oman lane will likely remain the norm,” underscoring ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to support a structurally tight oil market. Washington is preparing to severely restrict Iran's economy in an initiative labeled an "economic D-day," with formal details expected on Monday. The proposed US measures seek to sever Tehran's access to global commercial and financial networks by targeting banks, shipping registries, cash transfers, and smuggling operations to force negotiations over its nuclear program and regional transit.

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Energies

August 21, 2026

European Gas Remains Near Multi-Year Highs

European natural gas prices slipped below €65 per MWh on Friday but remained near their highest level since January 2023, as the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict muddied the outlook for Gulf LNG supplies. The two sides continued to clash over the Strait of Hormuz, with the conflict entering a new phase of economic pressure. Traders are concerned about Europe’s readiness for the upcoming winter as the maritime blockade has stranded Qatari LNG cargoes, forcing European utilities into more intense and costly competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes. Heatwave-driven demand for cooling is also limiting gas injections into storage. Europe's storage levels are at just 62%, the lowest seasonal level in records dating back to 2009, leaving the region with limited time to replenish inventories before the heating season begins. Despite this, the European Commission said that gas supplies in the bloc are not immediately at risk. Prices are up more than 5% this week.

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Cryptocurrencies

August 21, 2026

Bitcoin Eyes Best Week in Over 2 Years

Bitcoin continued its bullish run toward $75,000 in August, hitting its highest level since late May and poised for a weekly gain of about 19%, its strongest since February 2024, after President Donald Trump urged Congress to pass a key regulatory bill. Trump called on lawmakers to advance a “fair version” of the Clarity Act, legislation backed by the crypto industry that aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. The rally triggered more than $1 billion in Bitcoin short-position liquidations within about an hour, while total crypto short liquidations reached a record $2.7 billion. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $517 million in net inflows, their highest since May. Elsewhere, the US Treasury’s decision to substantially expand its purchases of 20-year and 30-year bonds pushed yields sharply lower, further boosting the appeal of riskier assets such as Bitcoin.

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Markets

August 21, 2026

Palladium Extends Gains to One-Week High

Palladium futures gained to around 1,350 per ounce, extending gains to a one-week high, as a weaker US dollar and renewed demand for precious metals supported prices. The dollar weakened after the US Treasury unexpectedly increased long-dated debt buybacks, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling purchases could exceed $4 billion per issue, initially easing yield pressures and supporting non-yielding metals. Palladium also benefited from broader precious-metals gains, with gold on track for a third straight weekly gain. However, rebounding Treasury yields and higher energy prices could limit gains by keeping inflation risks and rate-hike expectations elevated. Meanwhile, heightened tensions between the US and Iran, including threats of tougher economic measures, supported safe-haven demand. On the supply side, concerns over lower Russian palladium output and reduced refined production from South African processing disruptions continued to provide underlying support.

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Energies

August 20, 2026

Oil Rises by Over 2%

Crude oil climbed more than 2% to around $86.70 a barrel on Thursday, reaching its highest level since July 24, after President Donald Trump announced a sweeping package of economic measures targeting Iran. The proposed restrictions are aimed at cutting Tehran off from international financial and commercial channels, including activities involving banks, businesses, shipping registries, cash transfers and smuggling networks. Washington is seeking to intensify economic pressure on Iran and push it toward negotiations over the conflict, its nuclear programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The US is maintaining a blockade of Iranian ports, although crude from other Gulf producers continues to move through the strategic waterway despite heightened risks to shipping. Trump said significant volumes of oil were still passing through Hormuz. The measures came a day after the UAE suspended economic ties with Iran following accusations that Tehran had launched missiles at its territory.

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Aluminum Eases from 8-Week High

Aluminum futures in the UK fell to $3,200 per tonne from the eight-week high of $3,360 on August 11th, as higher supply from China offset the disruption from the war in the Middle East. Exports of aluminum from China, the world's top producer, surged by 18.7% in the year to July. The country has stepped up exports as muted demand allowed producers to ship metal despite Beijing's output cap of 45 million tons, easing shortages from the Middle East due to the war in Iran. The Alunorte plant in Brazil, the world's largest alumina plant outside of China, was forced to cut operations to half capacity amid the lack of natural gas from its supplier. This added to detriment to its client Norsk Hydro, which already declared two force majeures on aluminum sales after its joint Qatari venture Qatalum plant was forced to shut off production on natural gas shortages. LNG supply from the Middle East, essential for aluminum refining, has been scarce due to tanker blockades from the US and Iran.

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Walmart falls 6% despite strong results. What did the largest U.S. retailer reveal?

Key takeaways Walmart’s revenue rose 5.9% YoY to $187.9 billion, while adjusted EPS came in at $0.81 versus $0.74 expected, confirming the solid condition of one of the key U.S. retailers. U.S. comparable sales increased, while growth across Walmart’s business remains broad-based and is not driven solely by traditional retail. Walmart raised its full-year sales and EPS guidance, yet the shares are down around 6% in premarket trading. This raises an important question: how is the company currently valued? Walmart’s results for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 confirm that the U.S. consumer remains in relatively good shape, while demand is still strong enough for the country’s largest retailer to raise its full-year guidance. Revenue and adjusted earnings per share beat expectations, e-commerce and advertising grew strongly, and comparable sales remained positive. Despite this, Walmart shares are down around 6% in premarket trading, as investors focus on a more cautious outlook for the third quarter and a very high expectations bar. Walmart confirms the strength of the U.S. consumer Walmart’s results for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 confirm that the U.S. consumer remains in relatively good shape, while demand is still strong enough for the country’s largest retailer to raise its full-year guidance. Revenue and adjusted earnings per share beat expectations, e-commerce and advertising grew strongly, and comparable sales in the U.S. remained positive. Despite this, Walmart shares are down around 6% in premarket trading, as investors focus on a less impressive outlook for the third quarter, a decline in reported net income, and a very high expectations bar. Walmart’s revenue rose 5.9% YoY to $187.9 billion , versus expectations of around $186.75–186.8 billion, while adjusted EPS came in at $0.81 versus the $0.74 consensus , beating forecasts by $0.07. Walmart U.S. comparable sales, excluding fuel, increased by 2.6% , global e-commerce grew by 23% , and U.S. e-commerce by 24% ; the global advertising business expanded by 38% , with Walmart U.S. advertising also up 38%. Walmart raised its FY2027 net sales growth guidance to 4–5% from 3.5–4.5%, while adjusted EPS guidance was lifted to $2.80–2.87 from $2.75–2.85. For the third quarter, the company expects sales growth of 3.0–3.75% in constant currency, adjusted operating income growth of 2–4% , and adjusted EPS of $0.62–0.64 . The consumer remains strong The most important takeaway from Walmart’s report remains positive for the broader picture of U.S. consumption. U.S. comparable sales increased by 2.6%, despite an approximately 80 bps negative impact from the health and wellness segment, while growth was supported by a higher number of transactions. This is important because it suggests consumers are still spending and that growth is not being driven solely by higher prices. The company also pointed to strength in categories such as groceries, beauty, personal care, pet supplies, toys, and apparel. The digital side of the business looks even stronger. Global e-commerce sales rose by 23%, while growth in the U.S. reached 24%, supported by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery, marketplace, and advertising. At the same time, the global advertising business grew by 38%, with Walmart U.S. advertising revenue also up 38%. Walmart is no longer simply a volume-driven retailer — it is increasingly monetizing the scale of its platform, customer traffic, and logistics infrastructure. The profitability picture also contains several strong points, although it is more nuanced. Gross margin increased by 96 bps , largely due to tariff-related refunds, while operating income rose by 28.8% , or 17.4% on an adjusted constant-currency basis. At the same time, reported net income fell by 8.7% YoY to $6.5 billion , while diluted EPS declined by 9.1% to $0.88 . The market therefore received a strong operating picture, but not an entirely clean one. Higher guidance supports the fundamentals, but Q3 looks more subdued The increase in full-year guidance reinforces the positive fundamental picture. Walmart now expects net sales growth of 4–5% , while adjusted EPS is projected at $2.80–2.87 , compared with the previous range of $2.75–2.85. The midpoint of the new range is approximately $2.835 , versus $2.80 previously. The company also expects adjusted operating income to grow by 7.0–8.5% in FY2027. The shorter-term outlook raises more questions. For the third quarter, Walmart expects adjusted EPS of $0.62–0.64 , with the midpoint at $0.63 versus $0.62 a year earlier. The company also expects a more than 100 bps negative impact on sales growth due to the timing shift of Flipkart’s Big Billion Days between the third and fourth quarters. This is not weak guidance, but at a very high valuation it does not provide a strong argument for further multiple expansion. CFO John David Rainey also noted that benefits from tariff refunds received in the second quarter will be directed toward investments in customer experience and pricing in the second half of the year. This means that part of the current margin improvement may not fully translate into a sustained increase in profitability. For investors, that is an important nuance. Walmart can continue to grow at a healthy operating pace, but not every incremental benefit will flow directly to the bottom line. Walmart chart (D1 interval) — were expectations too high? Shares are down around 6% despite the company beating expectations on revenue and adjusted EPS and raising its full-year guidance. The market is not questioning the strength of the consumer or the quality of Walmart’s business. In this setup, the issue is more likely valuation and the fact that, after the earlier rise in the share price, a good quarter is no longer enough to act as a catalyst. The core thesis therefore remains unchanged: Walmart confirms that the U.S. consumer is still spending and that the company’s fundamentals remain strong, but the market had been expecting an almost flawless report. Under these conditions, even higher guidance and solid growth may not be enough if near-term earnings momentum looks less impressive than before. The shares are trading below the 200-session exponential moving average (EMA200), which points to a medium-term downtrend, while the post-earnings reaction confirms the dominance of sellers. The stock is likely to open today in the $108–110 range. Key support is located near $106 based on price action, while the important resistance level is the EMA200 around $117 . Source: xStation5 Valuation, inventories, free cash flow and return on capital Importantly, the market is paying for quality — but it is paying a very high price. At around $114.28 per share and a market capitalization of roughly $917 billion , Walmart trades at 40.3x trailing earnings, 39.6x expected earnings over the next 12 months (forward P/E), and 21.9x EV/EBITDA , levels much closer to those of a high-quality growth company than a traditional food retailer. At this valuation, the market is effectively paying in advance for sustained margin improvement, high ROIC, and a growing contribution from higher-margin businesses, which means that even good results may prove insufficient if the pace of monetizing these advantages falls short of expectations. The first chart illustrates Walmart’s business model well: this is an operation of enormous scale, where even small movements in working capital can materially affect quarterly free cash flow. Inventories at the end of the latest period stood at around $62.6 billion and have remained structurally above pre-2022 levels for several years, which is a natural consequence of both sales growth and the larger scale of the omnichannel business. At the same time, quarterly FCF fell to around -$1.9 billion , but a single negative quarter should not be interpreted as a deterioration in business quality, because retail cash flows are highly seasonal and heavily influenced by changes in inventories and supplier payables. Far more important is ROIC at 12.9% , which remains solid for a capital-intensive retail business with an enormous base of stores, distribution centers, and logistics infrastructure. Walmart does not generate spectacular margins, but it turns capital very quickly, and that asset turnover is one of the main sources of its economic advantage. Net debt also does not look aggressive: Debt/Equity stands at around 0.7x , meaning the company does not need to rely on high financial leverage to generate attractive returns for shareholders. My view is that Walmart’s greatest strength is not high FCF in every individual quarter, but an exceptionally efficient operating machine that can consistently generate a double-digit return on invested capital despite low margins. Source: XTB Research Revenue is growing — the real battle is over margins The second chart shows a business that continues to scale: quarterly revenue now stands at around $177.8 billion , compared with roughly $140–150 billion several years ago. Sales growth itself is not especially fast, however — the eight-quarter revenue CQGR is around 0.7% , reminding investors that Walmart has already reached such a large scale that double-digit organic growth for the entire group would be difficult to sustain. The key question is therefore whether each additional dollar of sales can gradually generate more profit, while the current EBIT margin of 4.2% shows how little room for error exists in mass-market retail. EBIT in the latest period stands at around $7.5 billion , while the net margin is close to 3.0% , meaning that even a few dozen basis points of sustained profitability improvement can have a major impact on the company’s value. This is where e-commerce, advertising, marketplace, and additional services may matter more than sales growth in groceries alone, because they have the potential to improve the group’s overall margin mix. One concern is that over the past eight quarters, EBIT has recorded a CQGR of around -0.8% , while EPS has grown by 5.7% , meaning that part of the improvement in earnings per share is not currently coming from pure operating profit expansion. In my view, the most important investment story for Walmart over the coming years is not revenue growth itself, but the ability to turn its enormous customer base into a slightly higher-margin business through advertising, marketplace, and logistics — even an increase in EBIT margin from 4.2% toward 5% could have a very significant impact on enterprise value. Source: XTB Research

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Forex Trading

August 20, 2026

Trade of The Day – GBP/CHF

Facts GBPCHF returned today above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50; dark violet) and the lower 2-week Bollinger Band (black). The yield spread between UK and Swiss 10-year government bonds is 2.7 bps below its August 14 level (4.625% vs. 4.652%), which marked the local peak for the pair. Recommendation Position: Long (BUY) on GBPCHF at market price Take Profit (TP): 1.09354 (TP1), 1.09670 (TP2) Stop Loss (SL): 1.08070 Source: xStation5 Opinion Yesterday, the GBPCHF exchange rate slid to its lowest level since July 31, 2026, driven by a proportionally larger appreciation of the Swiss franc than the pound relative to the US dollar following the US Treasury's announcement of accelerated long-term bond buybacks. Switzerland, with its highly conservative public finances (a debt-to-GDP ratio of 16.1% in 2025, compared to 94.3% in the UK), remains a classic beneficiary of debt market realignments. Aside from broader global bond market trends, key core fundamentals for GBPCHF support the continuation of the broader trend despite yesterday's sell-off. The magnitude of the decline in the 10-year yield spread between the two economies was far smaller than the drop in the spot market—the spread has already recovered roughly half of its losses from the last two sessions and is trading just below its local peak. Additionally, options market positioning shows no major shifts, though a higher premium continues to be paid for downside hedging on GBPCHF. Recent broad-based strength in the pound also reflects favorable investor sentiment toward the new government (particularly regarding the more fiscally cautious Chancellor). Consequently, Andy Burnham's political honeymoon period could provide an extra tailwind for GBPCHF upside momentum. Methodology This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the GBPCHF chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (monetary policy in Switzerland and the UK). The directional bias was determined using moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and bond market trends. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were established using Fibonacci retracements and price action: TP1 is set at the 23.6% Fibonacci level; TP2 is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level; SL is placed at the 100.0% Fibonacci level, representing the low since July 13.

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Banks

August 20, 2026

United States: Slow growth but data understate jobs – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner analyzes recent U.S. employment trends, noting that Nonfarm Payroll growth has slowed sharply, with average monthly gains of just 32,000 over the past year. He argues that official data likely understate job creation and expects a positive benchmark revision of about 250,000 jobs for March 2026, though this will not materially alter the current softening labor market trend. Positive revision prospects "U.S. employment has grown only slowly in recent quarters. Unlike in previous years, however, the published figures appear to slightly underestimate job growth. The upcoming annual revision is likely to be positive." "Employment in the U.S. is now growing at a relatively slow pace. In July, it was only 0.24% higher than a year earlier. Average monthly job growth over the past 12 months amounted to just 32,000." "In December 2025, the QCEW figures show job growth of 299,000 compared to December 2024 (an increase of 0.2%). By contrast, the nonfarm payrolls from the employment report show only a minimal increase of 69,000 jobs. This means they underestimated actual employment by 230,000." "Therefore, there is a good chance that a similar discrepancy will exist between the two data series in March, leading to an upward revision of payrolls for the first time in four years. We expect a revision of about +250,000 jobs. This corresponds to just under 0.16%." "While the revision does change the baseline—even if it won’t be incorporated into the data until next year—it is unlikely to lead to a reassessment of labor market developments since March. After all, a smaller revision also indicates that statisticians have improved their models, which should also benefit the quality of current labor market data."

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Banks

August 20, 2026

Australian Dollar: Softer jobs data keeps RBA sidelined – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD is holding gains on broad US Dollar weakness despite a soft July Australian labor report. The economy unexpectedly lost jobs, with rising unemployment and falling hours worked pointing to weaker labor demand. Haddad argues easing labor conditions support the Reserve Bank of Australia staying on hold, though attractive carry and commodity exposure remain key Australian Dollar tailwinds. Weak labor data, supportive AUD carry "AUD/USD is holding on to yesterday’s gains triggered by broad USD weakness. Australia’s July labor force report was soft. The economy unexpectedly lost -15.8k jobs in July (consensus: +12k) vs. +80.2k in June, driven by lower part-time employment (-32.2k vs. +31.4k in June)." "Encouragingly, full-time employment rose 16.3k in July and the previous month’s gain was revised 20k higher to +48.9k." "More concerning, the unemployment rate rose 0.1ppt to 4.5% (consensus: 4.4%) despite a lower participation, while hours worked fell -0.6% m/m. This suggests weakness in labor demand rather than an increase in labor supply. " "The continued easing in labor market conditions reinforces the case for the RBA to remain on hold for some time. Regardless, Australia’s attractive carry alongside the country’s strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defense remain key AUD tailwinds."

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Banks

August 20, 2026

US Dollar: Downside risks grow as yields contained – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart highlight that the US Treasury’s unscheduled expansion of long-end buybacks triggered the largest daily US Dollar drop since March outside intervention episodes. They argue the move underscores growing concern over US yield levels, could undermine confidence in US assets, and leaves the Dollar more vulnerable on the downside even if yields are contained. Treasury buybacks weigh on Dollar "The US Treasury unscheduled announcement yesterday that it would increase US Treasury bond buybacks resulted in the biggest daily drop for the US dollar since March when you exclude the two episodes of USD selling intervention in April/May and July. The buyback announcement could more than double the total from the original plan of a “maximum” of USD 2bn to “at least” USD 4bn and will be focused on 10-year and longer." "Well, if Scott Bessent really believes that then the US Treasury could play a key role here by of course addressing the ever-expending fiscal deficit with fiscal consolidation. We all know that’s not going to happen and hence the danger now following this announcement (and the FIMA report comment to Japan following intervention) is that it proves counter-productive and leads to reduced appetite for either holding US assets (UST bond sales) or reduced appetite for exposure to the US dollar (dollar selling) or both. Even if the Treasury buy-back plan does contain yields, the US dollar now remains more vulnerable to the downside on the fact that yields are potentially lower." "What this buyback announcement does mean is that the Jackson Hole speech next week by Fed Chair Warsh has now become more important. There is no hiding the fact that the latest move higher in yields was triggered by the FOMC and Warsh’s press conference." "Finally, we should also not ignore the prospect of inflation continuing to subside – that would be an important fundamental backdrop for helping contain yields. That could ease credibility risks related this announcement but of course then the markets would likely remove the tightening currently priced which would also weigh on US dollar performance. There appears to now be more avenues opening for US dollar weakness ahead rather than dollar strength."

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Banks

August 20, 2026

Euro: Benefits from US Dollar weakness – DBS

Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights that EUR/USD has rallied toward 1.17, with the Euro the main beneficiary of Dollar softness. July Eurozone CPI matched expectations for both headline and core, reinforcing market conviction in a European Central Bank rate hike in September, with around 26 basis points priced and a very high implied probability. Eurozone inflation supports ecb pricing "EUR/USD rallied towards 1.17, with EUR being the prime beneficiary of USD weakness." "Eurozone’s July CPI came in line with expectations yesterday, with both headline and core inflation matched consensus of 2.9% y/y and 2.5% y/y respectively." "This has entrenched expectations of an ECB rate hike for Sep, with markets pricing in a 26bps hike with over 90% probability." "On the other hand, the Fed’s next rate move is less clear given recent economic data softness, and upcoming mid-term elections in November."

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Forex Trading

August 20, 2026

Chart of The Day – USD/JPY Falls Ahead of a Key Test for the Yen

The USDJPY pair weakened by over 0.9% yesterday, significantly moving away from the key psychological barrier at the 160 level. Currently, the rate is oscillating around 158.5, awaiting the release of key data for the Japanese currency. Department of the Treasury Intervention Crucial for yesterday's move were, of course, the words of Scott Bessent, the US Secretary of the Treasury, who announced plans yesterday to double the purchase of long-term US bonds. The program is scheduled to take effect on September 9 and run at least until November 4, when the Department of the Treasury will release new quarterly plans. The focus will be mainly on the long end of the curve, i.e., the purchase of Treasury bonds with long maturities. The decision means an increased supply of dollars on the market, which naturally led to a depreciation of the US currency. The yen was among the biggest beneficiaries. Figure 1: Performance of Selected Currencies (19.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 20.08.2026 Inflation Data July inflation data from Japan is scheduled for release on Friday. The reading is expected at 12:30 AM. An hour later, we will receive the August PMI data. Figure 2: Japan CPI Inflation (2010 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 20.08.2026 Appetite for a hawkish surprise was whetted by the leading indicator for Tokyo published at the end of July. Core inflation in the Japanese capital unexpectedly accelerated from 1.6% to 1.9% y/y, beating the market consensus (1.7%). If Friday's reading confirms this trend and shows rising price pressure, the Bank of Japan will gain further arguments for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy course. The next meeting is in less than a month, on September 18. Let us recall that in July, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged (1%). A decision to hike could be a significant declaration for the market, leading to an increase in bets on further upward moves in the coming months. Technical Analysis Figure 3: USDJPY [D1] (18.12.2025 - 07.08.2026) Source: xStation, 20.08.2026 Since April 2025, the USDJPY pair has been in a clear, stable uptrend. After setting a local peak around the 164 level, the market entered a phase of a very dynamic, deep downward correction. The current price is oscillating around 158.5, and the market is clearly looking for a solid bottom from which it could stage a more lasting rebound. The key barrier for the demand side currently remains the strategic resistance zone located around the psychological level of 160 (marked with a thick green line). This is a point of dual technical significance, as it almost coincides with the 100-period moving average. In recent days, buyers attempted to initiate an uptrend, but after reaching the vicinity of the 50% Fibo retracement and testing the long-term 150-period moving average (blue line, level around 159.2), they ran out of steam. The price fell below the key moving averages (EMA 50 and EMA 100). The RSI indicator, after a previous strong plunge, managed to rebound, but is currently sliding back to the 40.6 level. The positive bars of the MACD histogram are also shrinking.

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Asian Stocks in the Green, Bitcoin Rallies 8% – Has Risk Appetite Returned?

Most Asian indices are trading in the green today. The Chinese Hang Seng is up 1.1%, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 has gained 1.3%. Meanwhile, the Korean KOSPI is trading significantly higher, up 5.9%. 📈 Equities The primary catalyst for these gains can be attributed to yesterday's announcements by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. His remarks led to a substantial decline in long-term bond yields (-1.8% or 9 bps in the case of the 30-year) and a notable (-0.9%) weakening of the US dollar. A portion of this capital has been redirected toward the equity markets, which has subsequently benefited Asian exchanges. The KOSPI is further bolstered by a more than 12% rise in SK Hynix shares, following the company's announcement yesterday of a 40 trillion won (approximately $29 billion) share buyback plan. The firm intends to acquire and cancel up to 24 million shares by 19 November. Regarding the Treasury Department's actions, the programme aims to: At least double the maximum threshold for individual buyback operations (from $2 billion to $4 billion); Focus on the long end of the curve, specifically the purchase of long-dated Treasury bonds (resulting in increased liquidity); Commence on 9 September and remain in effect until at least 4 November, when the Treasury Department will release new quarterly plans. 🧈 Precious metals The decline in bond yields naturally supported gold prices, which were driven 4.4% higher yesterday. Today, we are observing a slight correction in this area (-0.7%). A similar trend occurred yesterday with silver, which gained 5.8%. The current price for a troy ounce of gold is approximately $4,490, while silver is trading at $67. ₿ Cryptocurrencies Major cryptocurrencies also appreciated in value. Bitcoin's dynamic climb past $69,000 was underpinned by political pressure from Donald Trump, who is urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. These efforts coincided with a meeting with industry representatives at the White House, which strongly reignited market hopes for favourable regulations. 💱 Currencies The situation on the traditional foreign exchange market appeared differently. The trade-weighted dollar index fell by 0.9% yesterday, reaching its lowest level since May. A similar move was observed in the EURUSD pair (+0.9%), which approached 1.17. A weakening of this magnitude was last seen following the July Fed meeting, which led investors to withdraw a significant portion of their bets on interest rate hikes. While technically yesterday's actions by the Treasury Department do not constitute monetary easing (which falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve), the market effect was similar. The decision implies a greater supply of dollars in the market, which naturally led to the currency's depreciation. Figure 1: Performance of Selected Currencies (19.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 20.08.2026 Today, the situation is stabilising. Currencies typically sold in carry trade transactions are particularly losing ground. The Australian dollar is also performing poorly, weighed down by macroeconomic data released in recent hours. Figure 2: Performance of Selected Currencies (20.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 20.08.2026 📈 Macroeconomic data and monetary policy Today, our focus will primarily be on yesterday's minutes, the transcript of the debate from the most recent FOMC meeting. What did we learn? "Many" policymakers concluded that further monetary tightening would likely be necessary if inflation fails to subside. The Committee remains deeply divided on the assessment of inflation prospects. While a "majority" of participants anticipate a gradual decline in inflation later this year, "many" remain concerned that it could stay stubbornly elevated. It was noted that core inflation indicators remain worryingly high, and inflation expectations have reached levels exceeding those seen prior to the conflict in Iran. Those policymakers who advocated for maintaining interest rates at current levels in July argued that a pause would allow for a more accurate diagnosis of the situation. Since that meeting, the publication of weaker labour market data and slightly softer inflation readings has significantly strengthened their position. Members voting for a hike estimated that such a move would likely mitigate the need for more aggressive and potentially more costly economic tightening at a later stage. 🌍 Geopolitics Finally, a brief mention of recent reports from Axios. Citing American officials, the portal reported that the US military has been discreetly operating a secure shipping corridor through the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz, just off the coast of Oman, for several weeks. Between 15 and 20 tankers are reportedly being escorted through the strait each night, allowing for daily exports of approximately 10 million barrels of oil – nearly half the volume recorded before the conflict. On certain nights, this volume reportedly reaches as high as 15-20 million barrels. US forces are said to be directly facilitating the export of both loaded vessels departing the Gulf and empty ships arriving to collect crude. 🛢️ Energy commodities Thus far, these reports have not had a material impact on global oil or gas prices. Brent crude oil is currently priced at just over $92 per barrel, representing an increase of approximately 4% compared to levels seen a week ago. WTI crude prices have risen at a similar rate, with a barrel now costing just under $85. Over the same period, European gas prices have increased by approximately 6%. Currently, the price for a MWh of liquefied natural gas on the Dutch TTF exchange is roughly $63.50.

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Economic Calendar: FOMC Minutes Out, PMIs and Japanese Inflation Ahead

Yesterday was marked by the publication of the FOMC Minutes – a transcript from the last meeting of the committee. What did these show? And what does market await now? 🌏 Key macroeconomic publications Wednesday USA Yesterday, the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting were released, providing a transcript of the debate. What did we learn? “Many” policy makers concluded that further tightening of monetary policy would highly likely be necessary if inflation does not subside. The Committee remained deeply divided regarding the assessment of these inflationary prospects. Although the “majority” of participants anticipate a gradual decline in inflation later this year, “many” fear it could remain persistently elevated. It was noted that core inflationary indicators remain worryingly high, and inflation expectations have reached levels exceeding those seen before the outbreak of the war in Iran. Deciders who advocated for maintaining interest rates at an unchanged level in July argued primarily that a pause could allow for a more accurate diagnosis of the situation. Since that meeting, weaker labour market data and slightly softer inflation readings have been published, significantly strengthening their position. Those voting for a rate hike assessed that such a move would most likely limit the need for deeper and potentially more costly tightening (from an economic perspective) at a later stage. Thursday Poland Wage growth accelerated in July to 6.8% (against a consensus of 6.2%). Producer price inflation (2.8%) and industrial production (5.1%) also exceeded expectations. The data suggest a higher probability than previously thought of second-round effects occurring, namely the translation of supply-shock-driven inflation into demand-driven factors. It is currently difficult to consider a scenario where the interest rate cut proposal announced by Governor Glapiński at the last MPC meeting finds broader support within the Council. However, immediate interest rate hikes also remain unlikely. Japan The current account recorded an unexpectedly high deficit (exceeding 69 billion JPY in July), primarily due to higher oil prices and a large outflow of dividends abroad. Australia The consumer inflation expectations survey, published by the Melbourne Institute, showed a reversal of the positive trend seen in previous months. In August, consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9% on an annual basis. Labour market data, meanwhile, proved to be a major negative surprise for the markets. The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% (consensus 4.4%), while the change in employment was -15.8 thousand jobs (consensus +11.7 thousand). This represents a clear slowdown compared to a very strong June, when over 80 thousand jobs were added. 📆 Economic calendar Thursday USA: Weekly Jobless ClaimsTime: 1:30 PMPrevious: 209kConsensus: 210k Time: 1:30 PM Previous: 209k Consensus: 210k Friday New Zealand: Trade Balance (July)Time: 11:45 PMPrevious: 23mConsensus: -175m Time: 11:45 PM Previous: 23m Consensus: -175m Japan: CPI Inflation (July)Time: 12:30 AMPrevious: 1.6%Consensus: 1.8% Time: 12:30 AM Previous: 1.6% Consensus: 1.8% Japan: PMI Index (August)Time: 1:30 AMPoprzedni: 52,7 Time: 1:30 AM Poprzedni: 52,7 UK: Retail Sales (July)Time: 7:00 AMPoprzedni: 4,2% Time: 7:00 AM Poprzedni: 4,2% France: PMI Index (August)Time: 8:15 AMPoprzedni: 49,4 Time: 8:15 AM Poprzedni: 49,4 Germany: PMI Index (August)Time: 8:30 AMPoprzedni: 51,3 Time: 8:30 AM Poprzedni: 51,3 Eurozone: PMI Index (August)Time: 9:00 AMPoprzedni: 52 Time: 9:00 AM Poprzedni: 52 🗂️ Corporate earnings releases Walmart Inc ($WMT.US) – before market open (BMO) Kandi Technologies Group ($KNDI.US) – before market open (BMO) Canaan Inc - ADR ($CAN.US) – before market open (BMO) Bioline Rx Ltd - ADR ($BLRX.US) – before market open (BMO) Deere & Co. ($DE.US) – before market open (BMO) Newegg Commerce Inc ($NEGG.US) – before market open (BMO) 3 markets to watch OIL: Axios, citing US officials, reported that the US military has been quietly maintaining a secure shipping corridor through the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz, just off the coast of Oman, for several weeks. However, oil prices remain close to local highs. EURUSD: Yesterday's movement was one of the strongest this year. The dollar lost 0.9% against the euro, primarily influenced by communications from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Tomorrow brings another test in the form of August PMI indicators. USDJPY: The pair has moved significantly away from the critical barrier at 160. Tomorrow's release of inflation data may indicate the further direction.

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Steel Falls on Demand Concerns

Steel rebar futures fell toward CNY 3,010 per ton, retreating from three-week highs as signs of persistently weak demand in top consumer China weighed on the market. Chinese steelmakers continued to struggle with deteriorating margins and a prolonged property sector downturn, limiting demand for steel products. Industry data showed that China’s daily crude steel output fell 11% in July from the previous month to 2.48 million tons, while daily hot metal production declined 2.2% to 2.2 million tons. China’s property market has remained in a prolonged slump for five years, with real estate values continuing to decline, financially strained households being forced to sell properties, and heavily indebted developers facing mounting pressure after accumulating massive debt on speculative projects. Export opportunities for Chinese steel mills were also constrained by growing protectionist measures from foreign governments.

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Banks

August 20, 2026

Indian Rupee: Elevated Oil keeps INR lagging against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure despite broader US Dollar (USD) weakness, as high Oil prices and importer Dollar demand weigh on the currency. RBI-linked USD sales are containing USD/INR, but the pair’s risks are skewed to the upside, with resistance at 95.90–96. The early closure of the FCNR(B) swap window removes a source of incremental FX inflows. Rupee struggles despite weaker Dollar "INR remained under pressure despite the broader USD decline, with elevated oil prices and importer dollar demand continuing to weigh. RBI-linked USD sales appear to have helped contain losses and keep USD/INR from extending higher." "The overnight USD sell-off and lower US Treasury yields should offer some relief, but the divergence is telling - INR has so far struggled to benefit fully from the weaker USD backdrop while elevated oil prices remains the key headwind given India’s import dependence." "As such, INR may continue to lag the broader Asian complex unless crude prices ease more meaningfully." "The early closure of RBI’s concessional FCNR(B) swap window at end-August also removes one source of incremental FX inflow support earlier than expected, although the sizeable inflows so far and potential last-minute rush before 31 Aug may still add to buffer." "USD/INR last closed at 95.76. Daily momentum shows signs of turning mild bullish while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 95.90, 96 levels. Support at 95.40 (50 DMA), 95.10 levels."

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Banks

August 20, 2026

Equities: Yield relief and healthcare gains lift markets – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists note that equities rebounded as a sharp decline in long-end US Treasury yields helped the S&P 500 end a three-day losing streak. Strong gains in Moderna and Merck further supported the market through a surge in healthcare stocks, offsetting renewed weakness in semiconductors, while the positive tone extended into Asian trading even as European equities lagged. Equities rebound on yield relief "For equities, the last 24 hours have seen a relatively better performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.21%) finally ending a run of 3 consecutive declines. That was primarily driven by the sharp decline in long-end yields, and S&P 500 futures saw a clear move higher following the US Treasury’s announcement." "On top of that, there were huge gains for Moderna (+176.97%) and Merck & Co. (+12.60%) after they announced successful trial results for a skin cancer vaccine, which led the S&P 500 healthcare sector (+3.52%) to its best day since April 2025." "In fact, US equities would have seen an even stronger performance were it not for a fresh decline in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index (-2.12%) losing ground again." "That positivity has also been clear overnight, with S&P 500 futures up another +0.17%, whilst the major indices in Asia have also moved higher. That includes a sharp bounceback for the KOSPI (+6.25%), alongside gains for the Nikkei (+1.18%), the Hang Seng (+1.14%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.28%) and the CSI 300 (+0.21%)." "Earlier in Europe, markets didn’t do as well as their US counterparts, as they didn’t directly benefit as much from the US Treasury announcement, and were more exposed to the latest gain in energy prices. So equities struggled, and the STOXX 600 (-0.11%) posted a 6th consecutive decline for the first time since 2023."

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Banks

August 20, 2026

British Pound: Further gains face 1.3655 cap against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD spiked to 1.3630 before easing, leaving short‑term conditions overstretched. They still expect further British Pound (GBP) strength in the days ahead, but warn that momentum divergence suggests firm resistance at 1.3655, while a break below 1.3535 would signal that this upside target is unlikely to be reached. Pound advance seen capped near 1.3655 "24-HOUR VIEW: GBP soared to a high of 1.3630 yesterday before easing to close at 1.3606 (+0.55%). The sharp rise appears to be overdone. This, combined with deeply overbought conditions, suggests that instead of continuing to rise, GBP is more likely to consolidate between 1.3570 and 1.3630." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We highlighted on Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540) that “the upside bias in GBP remains intact, but any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3600.” In a sudden move yesterday, GBP surged and broke above 1.3600, printing a high of 1.3630. Further GBP strength remains likely, but with negative divergence forming on momentum indicators, this time around, any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3655. Overall, only a breach of 1.3535 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3510) would indicate that 1.3655 is not coming into view."

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Banks

August 20, 2026

Euro: Spikes higher against US Dollar on Treasury buybacks – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD jumped after the US Treasury increased buyback volumes of longer-dated US Treasuries, flattening the bond curve and pulling the 10-year yield below Tuesday’s peak. The move in US yields only partially transmitted to Europe, where primary issuance remains active. Treasury buybacks lift Euro against Dollar "EUR/USD spiked higher after the US Treasury announced an increase in the buyback volumes of longer-dated Treasury bonds and the bond curve flattened. At 4.64% currently, the 10Y UST is now 10bp below the peak on Tuesday. The move in US yields only partly spilled over to Europe, where the primary market has opened with plenty of SSA and covered bond deals." "In the US, the FOMC minutes from the July meeting contained no major surprises. Views on inflation diverged, with 'many' participants assessing that "policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline". Some also noted that financial conditions might not be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%, consistent with hold-voters signalling openness to future hikes following the meeting." "In the euro area, final inflation data confirmed the flash estimate of 2.9% y/y, with core inflation at 2.5% y/y. Underlying inflation measures were broadly unchanged, with only small increases, suggesting it remains quite sticky, but price pressures have not risen significantly following the energy shock." "Separately, the Q2 Labour Cost Index eased to 3.1% y/y from 3.2% y/y in Q1, suggesting that wage pressures continue to moderate and should remain a disinflationary force. We therefore continue to expect only one further 25bp rate hike from the ECB." "In the euro area, the ECB publishes the minutes from its July meeting, at which policy rates were left unchanged. We expect the minutes to show a bias towards a rate hike in September, which is also fully priced in by markets. Guidance beyond September is likely to remain limited."

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Iron Ore Falls on Weak Fundamentals

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 700 per ton, approaching 14-month lows amid signs of persistently weak steel demand and abundant global supply. Chinese steelmakers continued to face deteriorating margins and a prolonged property sector downturn, weighing on demand for the key steelmaking ingredient. Industry data showed that China’s daily crude steel output fell 11% in July from the previous month to 2.48 million tons, while daily hot metal production declined 2.2% to 2.2 million tons. Meanwhile, Australian mining giant Fortescue reported higher annual profit, supported by increased iron ore shipments and stronger realized prices. The company posted a record annual shipment of 201.3 million metric tons of iron ore. Elsewhere, Singaporean authorities said they had received reports concerning Radiant World, one of the world’s largest iron ore traders, although no further details were provided.

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Palm Oil Hovers Near 5-Month High

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their upward momentum, hovering around MYR 4,920 per tonne and holding near their highest level since early April. Firmer edible oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange supported sentiment, while elevated crude oil prices provided additional support amid sporadic attacks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council projected palm oil prices to remain firm above MYR 4,600 in September, citing tightening supply and trade disruptions. However, high inventories could limit further gains, with Malaysian palm oil stocks climbing to a five-month high in July. In India, record soyoil imports expected in August could weigh on palm oil demand, as refiners may favor cheaper soyoil ahead of the festive season. Export signals were also mixed. Intertek estimated shipments fell 7.9% during August 1–15 from the same period in July, while AmSpec reported a 3.2% increase, underscoring uncertainty over near-term demand and keeping traders cautious.

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Markets

August 20, 2026

Corn Extends Rally to 3-Month High

Corn futures climbed above $4.70 per bushel, extending their rally to the highest level since May 18, as disappointing US crop-tour results deepened concerns over tightening global corn supplies. According to the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, corn yields in Western Iowa and Illinois, the nation’s two largest corn-producing states, fell below last year’s levels. The findings followed weaker-than-expected yield estimates from four other key Midwestern states surveyed earlier in the week, with results also trailing the tour’s three-year average. Supply concerns have been amplified by adverse weather, as severe storms and extreme summer heat affected crops across the US Corn Belt. Beyond the US, Europe has endured successive heat waves, with France projected to record its smallest corn harvest since 1980. Meanwhile, ongoing attacks in the Black Sea region have disrupted grain shipments from Ukraine, further fueling concerns over global supplies.

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Energies

August 20, 2026

Heating Oil Consolidates Near April Highs

US heating oil futures held above $4.40 per gallon, consolidating near their highest level since early April, on fading hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump unveiled a new package of measures, describing it as an unprecedented campaign targeting Iran’s economy. This came after Trump said no talks with Iran were taking place or planned, while asserting that the US naval blockade remained active and that the strait was open. Iran, however, countered that the waterway would remain closed until the US fulfilled its prior conditions. The lack of resolution heightened expectations of prolonged supply disruptions from the region. Tanker flows remained subdued, with limited vessels still passing through the strategic route as shipowners stayed cautious. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.53 million barrels in the week ended August 14.

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Energies

August 20, 2026

European Gas Advances as Hormuz Remains Shut

European natural gas prices rose above €64 per MWh on Thursday as restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to raise concerns over global LNG supplies. President Donald Trump vowed on Wednesday to impose “tremendous punishment” on countries that help or do business with Iran, ramping up economic pressure on Tehran to reopen the critical waterway. His threats came a day after he said there were no ongoing talks and that the naval blockade of Iran remained in force, while Tehran maintained that the waterway remained closed. The blockade has halted Qatari LNG deliveries, forcing European utilities to compete aggressively for available cargoes in an already tight global market. Reduced LNG inflows, combined with heatwave-driven cooling demand, have slowed Europe’s seasonal gas storage injections. This has amplified concerns that Europe could enter the winter heating season with insufficient reserves, keeping upward pressure on gas prices.

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Banks

August 19, 2026

China: Policy support and structural shifts – HSBC

HSBC strategists review July data and the latest China Politburo guidance. Retail sales and Fixed Asset Investment softened, while Industrial Production and exports were supported by AI-related and green technology demand. Policymakers maintained a proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary stance, signalling faster bond-funded spending, targeted liquidity tools, infrastructure investment in the “six networks”, and a services-led consumption strategy. Policymakers lean on fiscal support "Policymakers broadly maintained the current policy stance, reiterating “proactive” fiscal policy and a “moderately loose” monetary policy, while noting the economy is increasingly led by new growth drivers. They also flagged continued headwinds and revived calls to “strengthen counter-cyclical” support – wording that was not used during the April meeting – reflecting softer domestic momentum. Exports have helped cushion growth, but pressure for additional policy support is building." "The Politburo called for faster spending and greater bond utilisation, starting with the deployment of existing annual quotas. Issuance has lagged versus last year: Special Local Government Bond (SLGB) issuance is 55% year-to-date (Wind) compared with 63% over Jan-July last year, while refinancing bond issuance has reached 84% of the annual quota – highlighting local fiscal constraints and a tilt towards refinancing over new investment." "Meanwhile, the stance around monetary policy suggests less urgency for broad interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts. Support is more likely via targeted structural tools and liquidity operations (e.g., Open Market Operations and treasury bond purchases)." "Accelerated fiscal spending is expected to support investment in the “six networks” – power, water, computing, information and communications technology, urban infrastructure, and logistics – which was also part of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has cited over RMB7trn of investment this year (Xinhua, 25 May), though detailed plans are yet to be unveiled. A stronger infrastructure push should provide counter-cyclical support needed to lift domestic demand." "Policy continues to prioritise domestic consumption, with a focus on services and human capital investment, consistent with the 15th Five-Year Plan (e.g., tourism, healthcare, sport, elderly care, childcare). This suggests support may be more targeted at services than durable goods (e.g., trade-in programmes) where policy support appears to

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Banks

August 19, 2026

Euro: Domestic demand resilience supports EUR – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s warning that Europe’s post-war growth model is eroding as global trade fragments and cheap energy fades. Lagarde argues Euro area resilience now relies on domestic demand, which drove 2025 growth and Q2 2026 expansion. She stresses the need to deepen the Single Market and capital markets, with AI investment hampered by fragmented regulation and financing. Lagarde shifts focus to demand "ECB President Christine Lagarde said Europe's post-war growth model is eroding as global trade fragments, cheap energy disappears and geopolitical risk reshapes investment decisions." "She argued that the euro area’s resilience increasingly depends on domestic demand, which drove all of last year's 1.5% growth and contributed positively to Q2 2026 expansion of 0.4% q/q." "The policy challenge is to turn that resilience into higher long-run productivity by deepening the Single Market and integrating capital markets." "Lagarde highlighted AI as a key test, noting euro area firms expect around 9% of investment to go into AI this year, but fragmented regulation and financing still prevent firms from scaling." "Her message was that Europe must convert market size into scale, investment and productivity."

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Banks

August 19, 2026

US Dollar: Fed minutes watched as rate doubts grow – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke says markets will scrutinize the latest Fed minutes for clues on how close policymakers remain to another rate hike after weaker US labour and inflation data reduced expectations for a hike by year-end. Any repricing of a September rate hike could provide some support for the US Dollar, but a fundamental shift in Fed rate expectations and sharp Dollar moves remain unlikely. Fed minutes and Dollar rate repricing "The minutes from the Fed meeting at the end of July are likely to draw attention tonight, at least insofar as the market may try to discern just how close the FOMC members ultimately were and still are to raising interest rates. The new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, intends to comment less on monetary policy and let the market do its job." "After all, the Fed - and the Fed alone - is responsible for price stability through its setting of the federal funds rate, not the market. That is why I also think that, in the absence of clear statements in the press release and at the press conference following the Fed meeting, the market might try to learn a little more about the discussions among FOMC members from the minutes." "Whether this will be successful remains to be seen - especially since, following the Fed's last meeting in late July, the labor market and inflation figures had already come as a surprise with weaker-than-expected results. Which is why the market is no longer fully pricing in an interest rate hike by the end of the year." "At the very least, should an interest rate hike in September have been a real possibility after all, the market could raise its rate hike expectations for the Fed slightly again and thereby provide support for the dollar, provided the fundamentals warrant it." "However, a fundamental reassessment of interest rate expectations - and the resulting sharp movements in the dollar - is unlikely to occur."

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Banks

August 19, 2026

Indonesian Rupiah: Policy continuity supports currency – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts Galvin Chia and Kunal Kundu note that Bank Indonesia kept the BI rate at 5.75%, with deposit and lending facility rates unchanged, reinforcing Rupiah stability and inflation control. They see the decision as marginally positive for IDR FX and yields, while highlighting a prudent but uncomfortable policy pause constrained by external uncertainty and a fragile Rupiah. BI hold seen as Rupiah supportive "BI left the BI rate unchanged at 5.75%, in line with our expectations. Deposit and lending facility rates were also unchanged at 4.75% and 6.50% respectively." "Crucially, Gov-nominee Destry delivered her first policy meeting without surprises and with a strong nod towards policy continuity. In a market that has seen a string of negative policy surprises over the last 12 months, a steady outcome today and at last week’s Presidential budget speech have proven to be incremental positives." "For markets, we think today’s decision was well received overall, and remains marginally positive for IDR FX and yields." "In general, it reinforces BI’s commitment to rupiah stability amid global volatility and keeps inflation anchored within the 2.5% ±1% target, while complementary liquidity and macroprudential measures can continue supporting credit and growth." "In essence, today’s hold is consistent with the same reaction function BI has been using: protect the rupiah, keep inflation within target, and weigh external financial conditions against domestic growth." "That said, the decision highlights BI’s policy bind, with a fragile rupiah and external uncertainty effectively limiting monetary support for the domestic economy." "If currency pressure persists or food inflation rises during the dry season, BI could face renewed needs for policy tightening despite the associated growth cost."

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Target shares fall despite strong results and guidance. Is the US consumer still holding up?

Key takeaways Quarterly EPS came in at $4.11, compared with analysts’ expectations of $2.33. Revenue reached $26.54 billion, versus consensus of approximately $26.13–26.14 billion. Target expects full-year net sales growth of around 5%, compared with previous guidance of around 4%. Full-year EPS guidance including the tariff refund is $9.90–10.90, versus analysts’ consensus of $8.47. EPS guidance excluding the tariff refund is $8.25–9.25, compared with the previous range of $7.50–8.50. One of the largest retailers in the US, Target (TGT.US), ended the second quarter with higher sales and earnings per share significantly above analysts’ expectations. The strong results appear to confirm the solid condition of the US consumer. Revenue came in at $26.54 billion, while comparable sales increased by 3.8%. At the same time, the company’s financial results were boosted by a one-off tariff refund, which increased net income by $752 million. Following the release, the home and consumer goods retail giant raised its full-year guidance, although management stressed that the business turnaround still requires further improvement. Target is closely watched by analysts because the scale of its business and the sector in which it operates can provide useful insight into the condition of US households. Key takeaways Target reported EPS of $4.11 ($2.46 excluding the tariff refund), compared with analysts’ expectations of $2.33, beating the consensus by $1.78. Revenue came in at $26.54 billion versus market expectations of approximately $26.13–26.14 billion. Net income reached $1.88 billion, although $752 million came from the one-off tariff refund. Target raised its EPS guidance to $9.90–10.90, compared with analysts’ consensus of $8.47. Target’s second-quarter results Target showed a clear improvement in sales in the second quarter. Revenue reached $26.54 billion, exceeding analysts’ consensus of approximately $26.13–26.14 billion. Net sales increased by 5.3% year over year. An even more important signal for the health of the underlying business was the 3.8% increase in comparable sales. The market had expected growth of around 2.4%, meaning the result came in clearly above forecasts. Target also reported earnings per share of $4.11 versus analysts’ expectations of $2.33 . This represented a $1.78 beat versus consensus. However, the significant impact of the one-off tariff refund needs to be taken into account when interpreting this difference. The company also said that sales growth was broad-based and covered all six of its major product categories. Food and beauty were the strongest segments, while apparel and home continued to lag behind other categories. Example: Target changed around 75% of its decorative home accessories assortment. According to management, the new products have already started to support comparable sales growth in this category, although a full recovery is expected to take several years. Tariff refund provides a major boost to Target’s earnings Target’s reported earnings were significantly boosted by a one-off settlement related to tariff refunds. Net income amounted to $1.88 billion, or $4.11 per share, compared with $935 million, or $2.05 per share, a year earlier. Of this amount, $752 million, or $1.65 per share, came from the tariff refund . At the gross margin and operating income level, the company recognized a pre-tax benefit of $994 million. This is also important when comparing the reported result with market expectations. Reported EPS of $4.11 was $1.78 above analysts’ forecast of $2.33, but a significant part of that difference can be linked to the one-off tariff refund. Target raises full-year guidance Following the stronger quarter, Target raised its expectations for both sales and earnings. The company now expects net sales growth of around 5%, which is 1 percentage point higher than previously forecast. Target expects full-year EPS of between $9.90 and $10.90 including the tariff refund. The midpoint of this range is $10.40, well above analysts’ consensus estimate of $8.47. Excluding the one-off impact of the tariff refund, EPS guidance stands at $8.25–9.25 per share. The company had previously expected $7.50–8.50, meaning the guidance increase is not solely attributable to the one-off settlement. Digital sales and same-day delivery support growth Digital remains one of the key drivers of Target’s improving performance. Digital comparable sales increased by 8.7% in the second quarter. Same-day delivery grew even faster, rising by more than 25%. This is important because Target is seeking to combine its extensive physical store network with services that allow customers to receive or collect orders more quickly. The company is also continuing to invest in traditional retail. Target opened 17 new stores in the second quarter. It has also cut prices on more than 10,000 products and plans further reductions. These measures are intended to support store traffic at a time when some households remain cautious about spending. Do the results signal a sustainable recovery at Target? Two consecutive stronger quarters suggest an improvement in operating trends, but they do not yet confirm a sustainable return to growth. In the previous quarter, Target reported its first positive comparable sales figure in five quarters, with growth of 5.6%. The latest quarter confirms that the improvement was not an isolated event. Sales increased again, comparable sales beat expectations, and the digital channel maintained strong momentum. CEO Michael Fiddelke remains cautious, however. Management stresses that the objective is not simply to deliver a few strong quarters, but to achieve sustainable growth in both revenue and earnings over the longer term . The biggest challenge remains improving performance in weaker categories, particularly apparel and home. At the same time, the consumer environment may continue to limit the pace of the recovery, as some customers remain under pressure from the cost of living and are managing their spending more cautiously. Target shares (TGT.US, D1 interval) Ahead of the earnings release, Target shares had already experienced a strong period of gains. The closing price stood at $152.5, representing an increase of more than 20% over the previous three months and 54% over the past 12 months. Despite better-than-expected results, the shares fell by around 4% in pre-market trading following the release. This shows that market reaction does not depend solely on whether a company beats revenue or EPS expectations. One factor investors may have taken into account was the significant impact of the one-off tariff refund on reported earnings. Looking ahead, the sustainability of comparable sales growth, improvement in underlying profitability, and the performance of weaker product categories may prove more important. After a sharp decline in previous quarters, Target has gradually returned to growth, with the shares trading nearly 25% above the 200-session EMA200 moving average (red line), although they still remain around 50% below their historical peak. Source: xStation5 Valuation and business growth indicators Target’s revenue has remained relatively stable over recent years, with clear seasonality and quarterly peaks above $30 billion, highlighting the mature nature of the business and its limited organic growth dynamics. The latest revenue level stands at approximately $25.4 billion, while the absence of a sustained upward trend confirms that the company’s main challenge is currently not scale, but a visible improvement in efficiency. EBIT in the latest quarter stands at around $1.1 billion, while the EBIT margin is 4.5%, indicating an improvement compared with weaker periods. Even so, the margin still provides only a relatively narrow buffer, which is typical for the retail sector. A net margin of around 3.1% shows that Target has recovered part of the profitability lost in 2023 , although it remains below the strongest readings seen at the beginning of the period under review. It is also worth noting that margins fluctuate much more than revenue, suggesting that operating costs, product mix, promotions, and inventory management remain the key drivers of earnings. From a fundamental perspective, improving margins alongside stable revenue are a positive signal because they suggest that part of the earnings growth may be generated through internal efficiency improvements rather than sales growth alone. However, there is still no clear evidence of a lasting breakthrough, so the company’s future performance should be assessed primarily in terms of whether Target can maintain its EBIT margin around current levels while also reaccelerating revenue growth. Source: XTB Research Target’s inventory levels remain relatively high, but after the peaks observed in 2023 and 2025, greater stabilization is visible, suggesting that inventory is becoming better aligned with the pace of sales. EBITDA has remained within a relatively narrow range in recent quarters, with the latest reading at around $1.9 billion, indicating no clear acceleration in operating profitability. The most important qualitative signal is the decline in ROIC to around 9.1% , showing that the company is generating a lower return on invested capital than during the strongest periods of previous years. At the same time, the Debt/Equity ratio stands at around 1.1x, well below the levels seen in 2023–2024, indicating an improvement in the financing structure and lower pressure from leverage. From a fundamental perspective, the reduction in financial leverage is therefore positive, although it has not yet been accompanied by an equally strong improvement in capital efficiency. Inventory stabilization could support margins in the coming periods if the company avoids excessive discounting and further inventory accumulation. Overall, the chart shows a business with an improving balance-sheet profile, but still only moderate returns on capital and no clear signal of sustained EBITDA growth. Target is valued at a P/E ratio of 20.1x , meaning the market is paying around $20 for every $1 of earnings generated over the past 12 months. The forward P/E ratio stands at 18x , below the trailing multiple, suggesting that consensus expectations point to earnings growth in the coming periods. Meanwhile, an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.6x indicates a moderate valuation of the enterprise relative to the EBITDA it generates. Source: XTB Research

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Chart of The Day – US100

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) has been showing signs of a noticeable slowdown in recent days. The index is currently around 3.8 per cent below its all-time highs (ATH). During yesterday’s session alone, it fell by 1.7 per cent. The index is being dragged down by shares in companies such as Meta Platforms, Broadcom and Cisco Systems. Source: XTB Despite this short-term nominal weakness, from a multiplier perspective, the market is starting to look increasingly interesting. A cooling-off of the indicators and a fall below the standard deviation The forward P/E ratio (price to forecast earnings for the next 12 months) for the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen to around 23.0. Most importantly, the forward P/E ratio has fallen below the lower limit of one negative standard deviation when analysing the range since the start of 2024. The median (average) for this indicator over the period under review is higher, at 24.2. This pattern suggests that the US100 index is becoming relatively cheaper. Since the multiple is falling below standard deviations, this means that earnings forecasts (the denominator of the ratio) are holding up strongly, whilst the fall in share prices (the numerator) is ‘cooling’ the market, removing some of the excess optimistic overvaluation. Technical situation on the chart (D1 timeframe) Looking at the daily chart, the US100 contract price is currently fluctuating around 29,626 points. If the current selling pressure persists and investors continue to reduce their positions, the zone defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, located around 27,923 points, as well as the range of the two daily candles from 29 and 30 July, when we saw increased trading volume, indicating a possible rise in demand in this zone. Source: xStation

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Energies

August 19, 2026

Will Europe make it before winter?

European NATGAS price back at 4 weeks hights Despite local pullbacks, the price of European gas futures is still following a clear upward trend. The chart price is currently holding around ~€63. From a technical analysis perspective, the €64 area is a key price level to watch. A sustained break above it would change the current technical structure; one of the levels implied by the 161.8 Fibonacci projection is an area roughly 25% above the current price. Source: xStation5 From a fundamental standpoint, there are a number of factors that currently support, but do not guarantee, further price increases. The supply side is clearly tight, although despite unfavorable circumstances it is not without a response. Source: Bloomberg Finance Estimated storage levels have broken below the maximum seasonal trend, setting a multi-year record. As of today, European storage facilities are filled to the lowest level in the last 10 years, including the turbulent 2022 to 2023 period. Currently, European storage fill according to Bloomberg data is around ~61% versus a seasonal average of ~71%. Source: Bloomberg Finance More interesting is the shipping situation. Despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in February and being cut off from key producers such as Qatar, the amount of gas at sea rose by several hundred percent, reaching a multi-year high in April. However, the supply situation is not clear-cut. Looking at import data, August shows a clear divergence between Europe and the rest of the world. Imports in India, Egypt, and Taiwan fell by 5% to 20%. In Europe, mainly France, the Netherlands, and Spain, imports are holding at 2025 levels or exceeding them. On the supply side, apart from Qatar and other Persian Gulf countries mentioned earlier, all natural gas producers such as Russia, Australia, and the US are maintaining or accelerating production. Importantly, record-low levels were not recorded in 2022/2023 but in 2016/2017/2018, when exceptionally low temperatures forced higher consumption. In practical terms, this means Europe has a meaningful chance of avoiding shortages or even a sharp price surge from current levels, but only if average winter temperatures turn out to be within the normal range.

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Wall Street is losing momentum. Are fundamentals still keeping up with the bull market?

Despite the recent pullbacks, the S&P 500 remains close to its all-time highs, so the natural question is whether the market has already gone too far. The problem is that index levels alone do not tell the full story. In recent quarters, earnings and earnings expectations have been improving fast enough that the market rally cannot be explained solely by valuation expansion. S&P 500 earnings rose by nearly 50.4% y/y in the latest quarter, compared with earlier expectations of 23.2%. This was the strongest growth rate since Q3 2021. Part of this result, however, came from Alphabet and Amazon, where gains related to SpaceX and Anthropic were recognized. Excluding these effects, earnings growth would have been closer to 32% y/y, still around 10 percentage points above the increase in the S&P 500 itself. This was already the second consecutive quarter with earnings growth above 20% and the seventh straight quarter of double-digit growth. Revenue growth is also accelerating, rising by around 15% y/y, the strongest pace since Q4 2021. Even excluding energy and technology, revenue growth would have been around 9.7%. The improvement is not limited to the largest technology companies. As many as 8 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are posting double-digit earnings growth. Energy earnings are up by around 135% y/y, while communication services and consumer discretionary are growing by nearly 110%. This weakens the argument that the entire bull market is being driven solely by a handful of megacaps. US500 chart (D1 interval) Looking at the S&P 500 contract (US500), the key price-action support is located around 7,620 points and is additionally reinforced by the 50-session EMA50 (orange line). The key resistance levels are 7,800 and 8,000 points. Source: xStation5 The growth rate of the 12-month forward EPS forecast for S&P 500 companies has risen to around 35% y/y (even though there was no recession last year!), confirming clear fundamental support. Source: XTB Research The S&P 500 is expensive, but not extremely expensive With the index trading close to record highs, valuations remain elevated, but they are still not comparable with the most extreme periods in history. The 12-month forward P/E stands at around 21.8x. This is clearly above most of the levels seen since 1980, but still below the extremes reached during the dot-com bubble or the post-pandemic rebound. More important, however, is the relationship between the index level and earnings expectations. The S&P 500 is rising, while the forward P/E is not increasing at the same pace. This means that part of the index gains is being absorbed by rising EPS expectations , rather than being driven only by investors' willingness to pay higher valuation multiples. This is an important distinction. The market may remain expensive in absolute terms, but if earnings forecasts rise faster than share prices, its relative valuation stops deteriorating. The current setup therefore looks more like a market supported by improving fundamentals than a classic phase of pure multiple expansion. Source: XTB Research Earnings revisions are breaking historical patterns This is even more visible in analysts' earnings forecasts. Historically, S&P 500 earnings estimates usually start the year relatively high and are then gradually revised down. On average since 2000, revisions have fallen by around 9%. In 2026, the opposite is happening. Forecast earnings growth is approaching 30%, while expectations have already been raised by around 15% since the beginning of the year. Such strong positive revisions are a historical outlier rather than a standard feature of the cycle. 2027 is also expected to remain strong, although revenue growth should gradually normalize from current levels. Analysts expect index revenues to increase by around 11.3% y/y in Q2 and 10.9% in Q4 2026. In 2027, the pace is expected to slow to around 8.4%. This still points to a very solid growth scenario. At the same time, it raises the question of whether the bar has already been set so high that it will become increasingly difficult to raise expectations further in the coming quarters. Source: LSEG, BlackRock, Truist, FactSet AI CAPEX keeps rising and continues to support the cycle Hyperscalers are not behaving as though they expect a meaningful slowdown in demand for AI infrastructure. Combined projected CAPEX for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle has increased from around USD 560 billion to USD 612.5 billion. That is an increase of USD 52.5 billion, or around 9.4%. Alphabet raised its guidance from USD 185 billion to USD 200 billion, Amazon from USD 200 billion to USD 220 billion, Meta from USD 135 billion to USD 137.5 billion, while Oracle increased its outlook from USD 40 billion to USD 55 billion. In Oracle's case, this represents a revision of as much as 37.5%. On a quarterly basis, this means roughly another USD 50 billion in additional AI-related spending. This matters for the entire infrastructure chain, from data centers and cloud computing to semiconductors. Big Tech continues to deliver solid results in cloud businesses as well, while rising investment suggests that the largest companies still see no reason to step away from the current cycle. At the same time, expectations for semiconductors are exceptionally high. Forecast EPS growth for the S&P 500 semiconductor sector over the next 12 months stands at around 143% y/y. This highlights both the scale of potential growth and the scale of expectations that companies will need to meet. Source: XTB Research The market is paying for future earnings, not the past The difference between trailing P/E and forward P/E is also noteworthy. The multiple based on historical earnings remains much more stretched, while forward P/E is relatively more stable. The market is therefore clearly assuming that the coming quarters will bring further earnings improvement. As long as EPS forecasts continue to be revised higher, this valuation setup remains internally consistent. The problem would emerge if revisions started to slow while share prices remained elevated. This is one of the most important elements of the current market environment. The risk today is not only the high P/E level itself, but also the extent to which that P/E depends on a very strong earnings-growth scenario. Source: XTB Research Wall Street is expensive, but fundamentals remain solid It is difficult to reduce the current market environment to the simple conclusion that the S&P 500 is at record highs and therefore must be overvalued. Fundamentals are stronger than in previous quarters, the breadth of earnings growth is improving, revisions are exceptionally positive, and AI-related CAPEX continues to rise. At the same time, this is not a market with a large margin for error. Investors are already pricing in further EPS improvement, sustained high investment levels and continued AI monetization. If these elements continue to be delivered, the index may keep rising without a significant expansion in valuation multiples. If, however, the pace of earnings revisions starts to weaken, the current 21–22x forward earnings multiple could quickly become less comfortable. Wall Street therefore remains expensive, but current valuations are being supported more by earnings than by investor optimism alone. The key question for the coming quarters is no longer whether earnings will be good, but whether they will be strong enough to lift expectations that are already set at a very high level.

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Forex Trading

August 19, 2026

Trade of The Day – USD/CAD

Facts: USDCAD is trading in a downward trend since the beginning of July The pair reacted to the key resistance at 1.3907 Recommendation: Trade: Short USDCAD at market price Target: 1.3828, 1.3806 Stop: 1.3911 Opinion: USDCAD has been trading in a local downward move since the beginning of July. Looking at the pair at the H1 interval, one can see that the price reacted to the key resistance at 1.3907, following a local upward correction. The resistance is a result of the previous low from August 12. In addition the price returned below the upper limit of 1:1 structure, which according to the Overbalance methodology supports a downward scenario. The pair also sits below the 100-period moving average from the H1 interval. We recommend going short USDCAD at market price with two targets: 1.3828 and 1.3806 . We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.3911. Source: xStation

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Economic Calendar: All Eyes on the FED Minutes

What is driving the market today? Geopolitics and tariffs: Trade tensions have eased slightly after US President Donald Trump suspended the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs on goods from Canada for three days, announcing that an “agreement” had been reached. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rise amid ongoing tensions and uncertainty regarding the free passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Waiting for the Fed: Following three consecutive sessions of falls for the S&P 500 index, triggered by a global bond sell-off, investors’ attention is now turning to today’s publication of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting. UK inflation data: At 08:00, the UK CPI inflation figure for July was released, coming in at 2.9% y/y, which was in line with the consensus forecast. Core inflation, meanwhile, came in at 2.6% y/y, slightly above expectations of 2.5% y/y. The situation on the markets this morning (as at 09:00): Stock market indices: Trading on European and US markets this morning is characterised by caution and low volatility. The German DE40 is up by a symbolic 0.08 per cent, the British UK100 is up by 0.05 per cent, whilst the Polish W20 is down by 0.23 per cent. In the US, futures on the US500 and US100 are edging down slightly, by 0.02 per cent and 0.09 per cent respectively. In Asia, declines were widespread, with the Japanese JP225 losing 0.57% in the wake of global pressure on the technology sector. Commodities and currencies: Gold ( GOLD ) is up 0.30% this morning, benefiting from a slight fall in US bond yields. Oil prices are also rising – the OIL.WTI contract is up 0.30%. The US dollar remains weak against the major currency pairs; the EURUSD exchange rate is up 0.22%, and the GBPUSD is up 0.16%. Highlights of today’s calendar: 11:00 – Eurozone, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) year-on-year for July Target: In the US pre-market, attention will focus on the financial results of Target, whose shares have risen by over 55 per cent since the start of the year. 16:30 – USA, Change in crude oil and petrol stocks 20:00 – USA, FOMC meeting minutes

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Banks

August 19, 2026

Asia FX: Lower US yields offset Oil risk – MUFG

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that the Korean Won (KRW) and Taiwan Dollar (TWD) are leading Asia FX gains as softer US yields and a resilient technology cycle support sentiment. In Indonesia, recent Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) stabilization may allow Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep rates at 5.75%, though a weaker trade balance and tight US Dollar (USD) liquidity warrant caution. Tech-linked currencies outperform peers "August price action thus far suggests that markets are becoming increasingly selective in their Asia FX outlook. The strongest gains were concentrated in KRW and TWD, pointing to investor preference for currencies leveraged to a softer US rates environment and a resilient global technology cycle." "Meanwhile, several ASEAN currencies have strengthened month to date despite Brent crude prices staying around $90/bbl, suggesting that lower front-end US yields are partly supportive of regional FX gains." "That said, any renewed surge in Brent prices would likely pose headwinds for the baht and peso – both of which are experiencing an economic slowdown." "In Indonesia, the recent rupiah stabilisation, partly helped by BI policy measures, is likely to give room for BI to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.75% today." "But Indonesia’s weakened trade balance and still tight dollar liquidity conditions warrant caution on the rupiah’s outlook."

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Banks

August 19, 2026

Japanese Yen: JGB spillover supports firmer JPY against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that rising long-end Japanese government bond yields are increasingly influencing global curves and the Japanese Yen. Markets now price a high probability of a September BoJ rate hike, but policymakers’ appetite for further tightening is uncertain. The strategists keep their end-2026 USD/JPY target at 163, turning more constructive only if BoJ signals a more aggressive hiking path. BoJ path and JGB yields in focus "Part of the rise in long-end yields, particularly in the US, reflects higher real yields driven by persistent fiscal deficits and increasing AI-related corporate financing needs. However, these factors do not fully explain the move." "Another factor that should not be overlooked is the spillover from rising long-end Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. Concerns over JPY weakness and perceptions that the BoJ remains behind the curve have not been fully alleviated despite coordinated Japan-US FX intervention and growing debate over a faster pace of BoJ rate hikes." "Markets are increasingly pricing in a September BoJ rate hike, with implied odds rising to around 80% from 50% at the start of August. If the BoJ accelerates policy normalisation and the JPY sheds its status as a low-yielding funding currency, the currency should strengthen over time." "Quarterly rate hikes through 2027 would be a key catalyst for a more durable JPY appreciation. However, it remains unclear how much appetite policymakers have for additional tightening beyond September or October." "We maintain our end-2026 USD/JPY target of 163 but could become more constructive on the JPY if the BoJ signals a more aggressive rate hiking path or if Japan actively encourages capital repatriation, including through institutions such as the GPIF."

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Banks

August 19, 2026

Indonesian Rupiah: BI seen hiking to anchor rupiah – UOB

UOB strategists highlight Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy meeting, with consensus expecting no change but its macro team forecasting a 25 bps hike to 6.00%. They see risks around the Indian Rupee (IDR), divided views on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and rising global inflation. They project three hikes in total, taking the BI rate to 6.50% by end-2026, as USD/IDR has recently pushed higher. BI tightening to support currency "Focus turns to Bank Indonesia (BI) today where it will make its latest monetary policy decision this afternoon at about 3:20pm SGT." "Market consensus expects BI to keep its policy BI rate unchanged at 5.75% but our macroeconomic team is expecting a further 25-bps hike instead to 6.00%, With risks to the rupiah’s trajectory, divided market expectations of US Fed’s policy direction, and upside risks to global inflation forecasts amid rising energy prices, our macroeconomic team believes BI is likely to remain focused on anchoring currency stability and inflation expectations." "As such, we expect two 25-bps hikes in 3Q26 and a final 25-bps in the 4Q26, bringing the policy rate to a terminal level of 6.50% by end 2026." "In South East Asia, USD/IDR recovered from 17,820 to 17,850 as USD/MYR pushed back up from 4.05

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Markets

August 19, 2026

UK Inflation Hits Four-Month High as Core Inflation Holds Steady and Producer Price Growth Eases

UK Producer Inflation at 4-Month Low of 3.1% Factory gate prices for UK-manufactured goods advanced 3.1% year-on-year in July 2026, slowing from a 3.5% growth in June, marking the softest increase in four months. Eight of the 10 product groups made upward contributions to the annual rate, led by a jump in prices of coke and refined petroleum products (30.1% vs 41.3% in June) amid higher energy costs. Inflation accelerated for other manufactured products (4.6% vs 4.5% in June) and basic metals, fabricated metal products, and machinery (5.0% vs 5.2%). Meanwhile, motor vehicles and other transport equipment made the largest downward contribution, with prices declining 1.6%, followed by food products, where prices fell 0.8%. On a monthly basis, factory gate prices rose 0.2%, after a revised 0.1% drop in June. UK Core Inflation Holds at 2.6% for Third Month UK's annual core inflation rate remained at 2.6% in July 2026, unchanged for the third consecutive month. It stayed at its highest level since March and slightly above market expectations of 2.5%. The annual rate for CPI goods accelerated (2.2% vs 1.7% in June), while CPI services inflation eased (3.4% vs 3.6%). On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose 0.2%, slowing from 0.3% increases in both June and May and marking the softest monthly reading since January. UK Inflation Rises to 4-Month High annual inflation rate in the UK rose to 2.9% in July 2026, the highest in four months, from 2.6% in June and in line with market expectations. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (4.1% vs 2.7% in June), particularly gas and electricity. Prices of furniture and household goods (1% vs -0.2%) and clothing and footwear rebounded (0.5% vs -0.5%). On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3%, following a 0.1% rise in the previous month.

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Apple bucks deepening Nasdaq selloff! Perfect anti-AI hedge?

Apple (AAPL.US) shares add about 1.5% despite deepening fall of the Nasdaq 100 index (US100: -1.4%). The stock benefits from a just announced resolution of the company's dispute with the European Commision, as well as from the outflows of AI-centred sectors amid rising debt and inflation fears. The company announced revisions to its European Union developer terms to settle an ongoing antitrust dispute under the Digital Markets Act following a previous €500 million fine. Effective October 1, the updates unify developer terms under a single framework, adjust commission rates, and introduce safeguards barring apps from redirecting users under 13 away from the App Store for external payments. The changes address EU regulatory mandates requiring platforms to permit alternative app distribution and unhindered customer steering toward third-party purchase options. The European Commission welcomed the adjustments and plans to oversee their implementation, helping Apple avert potential non-compliance penalties of up to 10% of annual worldwide revenue. Technical Analysis: AAPL.US (D1) Apple shares are staging a steady recovery after finding resilient support in the highlighted demand zone near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($300). This floor held firm following the post-earnings pullback triggered by concerns over softer Chinese demand. Crucially, the price remains resilient above the rising 100-day EMA ($298.53), keeping the primary bullish trend intact. Currently pushing above the 50.0% retracement ($309.11) and EMA10 ($309.06), Apple is approaching an immediate test of the 30-day EMA ($312.15). A clean breakout above this dynamic hurdle could clear the path toward $317.46 (38.2% Fibo). Source: xStation5 Does Apple Remain a Valid "Anti-AI" Trade? Today’s gains in Apple shares also highlight its growing role as a hedge against the broader AI trade. The stock is trading in the green while semiconductor and memory heavyweights face renewed risk-off pressure ( Nvidia : -2.3%, ASML : -4.6%, SK Hynix : -8.3%, SanDisk : -8.6%) as rising bond yields compress tech risk premiums. This divergence first became prominent during the pre-FOMC selloff in AI names. Rather than committing massive capital expenditure to proprietary computing infrastructure, Apple has opted for strategic partnerships, driving its correlation with the semiconductor sector into negative territory. However, this positioning comes with trade-offs. Soaring AI-driven demand has inflated memory component costs, threatening hardware margins ahead of key product launches. Furthermore, trading at 32 times forward earnings with moderating sales growth, Apple faces heightened valuation scrutiny and a string of analyst downgrades. Even so, bulls contend that Apple's pristine balance sheet, aggressive buybacks, and decoupling from the chip cycle make it an attractive defensive haven whenever sentiment around aggressive AI infrastructure spending cools. Year-to-Date returns of Apple and Nasdaq 100 futures. The two diverged heavily in July, revealing Apple’s anti-AI hedging capacity. Source: XTB Research

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Markets

August 19, 2026

The Dollar Weakens Ahead of Minutes. What Do You Need to Know This Morning

Futures contracts on US and European indices are hovering around zero, whilst Asian markets, including Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi, have recorded sharp falls following a third consecutive session of losses on Wall Street. The main factor driving market sentiment is the global sell-off in the bond market, which has pushed yields on long-term government bonds in the US and Europe (including German and French bonds) to multi-year highs. Investors are assessing whether higher borrowing costs will harm the economy and are awaiting today’s (20:00) publication of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next moves. On the commodities market, crude oil prices are rising for the fourth day in a row, with Brent crude futures trading above US$91 per barrel (WTI is up 0.30 per cent), driven by fears that transport through the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked following the expiry of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Meanwhile, the US dollar is weakening and hovering near multi-month lows – the dollar index (USDIDX) is down 0.08 per cent – which coincides with a temporary pause in the rise in bond yields ahead of the publication of the Fed minutes. The Japanese yen is performing relatively well today, whilst we are seeing increased downward pressure on the Australian dollar, amongst others. Source: xStation Among the various sectors of the economy, technology and telecoms companies are currently performing the worst, having lost over 2 per cent on the US stock market this week, whilst the VanEck Semiconductor ETF index fell by 4.1 per cent on Tuesday amid rising interest rates. Source: XTB The US energy sector, however, is performing best, with refining companies, amongst others, hitting new highs, buoyed by record refining margins and geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. Target’s shares have risen by over 55 per cent this year, and investors are eagerly awaiting today’s financial report (to be published before the market opens) to assess the effectiveness of the turnaround plan led by CEO Michael Fiddelke. The Chinese robot manufacturer Unitree Robotics made its debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with its shares rising by nearly 630 per cent at one point, reflecting retail investors’ huge appetite for technological innovations. South Korean giant Samsung Electronics has announced a $158 million investment in a new production line for cooling systems in Gwangju, yet its shares fell by more than 7 per cent amid a wider sell-off in the Asian technology sector. Semiconductor and equipment manufacturers such as Teradyne, Marvell and Micron recorded significant losses of between 7 and 9 per cent on Tuesday, buckling under the pressure of high bond yields. Today’s session will also see the quarterly results of other retail and consumer goods giants

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Gold struggles to capitalize on recovery from weekly low as traders await FOMC Minutes

Gold stages a modest recovery from a fresh weekly low amid the emergence of some USD selling. Oil-driven inflation risks remain supportive of elevated US bond yields and should limit USD losses. Traders await FOMC Minutes for interest-rate cues before placing directional bets on the bullion. Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday bounce from the weekly low, touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, and currently trades just below $4,350. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some sellers, stalling this week's goodish recovery from a two-month low and helping the commodity reverse a part of the previous day's heavy losses. Traders, however, opt to wait for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path before placing fresh directional bets on the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes amid inflationary jitters stemming from rising energy prices due to the Middle East crisis. In fact, crude oil prices climb to a nearly three-week high amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has asserted that the US is not engaged in talks with Iran and that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force. Furthermore, Trump posted a map on Truth Social depicting the strategic Strait of Hormuz as the new US territory. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the critical waterway would remain closed until the US fulfills conditions agreed to a June memorandum of understanding. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and lifting the longer-end 30-year US bond yield to its highest level since June 2007. Furthermore, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in around a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike by the year-end. Analysts at ING highlight that the US Dollar index (DXY) has “rebounded from the range lows at 99.40,” underlining that “the Dollar is not quite ready to make a sustained break lower just yet.” They point to “higher energy prices and rising 30-year Treasury yields” as the two key factors providing near-term support, noting that “both of these, should they extend, could put a September hike from the Fed back on the agenda.” On the energy side, ING observes that “news that Washington seemingly has little interest in extending the 60-day ceasefire with Iran has seen oil and gas prices creep higher again.” While “in which direction the next big leg for energy prices emerges is anyone's guess,” the bank stresses that “higher energy is a Dollar positive – both through US energy independence and the Fed's reaction function.” Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties might hold back bearish traders from placing fresh bets on the safe-haven Greenback, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciation in the Gold price. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been struggling to find acceptance above the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline and remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This keeps the near-term bias tilted bearish despite the metal consolidating near recent highs. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero, though it has slipped back toward the signal, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.24 stays in positive territory. This suggests that bullish momentum is still present but vulnerable to further corrective pressure while the Gold price fails to reclaim the aforementioned resistance levels. Overhead, the 50% retracement at $4,406 is the first hurdle, with the longer-term SMA at $4,509 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,519.36 reinforcing a broader ceiling. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,292, guarding the pullback before the 23.6% retracement at $4,152 and the structural floor around $3,925.

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Energies

August 19, 2026

WTI Price Sits near three-week high, below $85.00 as bulls eye 100-SMA breakout

WTI sticks to a positive bias for the fourth straight day and climbs to a nearly three-week high. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues to act as a tailwind for the commodity. A move beyond the 100-day SMA is needed to back the case for a further appreciating move. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – touches a nearly three-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it struggles to build on the momentum beyond the $85.00 mark. The commodity, however, sticks to a positive bias for the fourth straight day and seems poised to appreciate further amid geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff. President Donald Trump posted a map on Truth Social depicting the strategic Strait of Hormuz as the new US territory and said that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, on the other hand, said the critical waterway would remain closed until the US fulfills conditions agreed under a June memorandum of understanding. This keeps the war-risk premium in play and validates the near-term positive outlook for crude oil prices. From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a near-term bullish bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.90 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.47 both suggest mildly constructive momentum. The broader structure still points to limited upside while price remains capped below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance at $86.09 and the 50.0% retracement at $87.06. This is followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level at $91.73, which would mark a stronger bullish trigger if reclaimed. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $82.38, ahead of deeper structural floors at $76.60 and $67.25, where buyers would be expected to show more robust interest on a larger pullback. WTI daily chart

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Commentary

August 19, 2026

UK CPI set to show inflation accelerated in July, bolstering case for BoE rate hike

The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will publish the July CPI data on Wednesday. Annual UK headline inflation is set to pick up in July, while core CPI is expected to cool slightly. The UK CPI report is set to rock the British Pound as bets on a September interest-rate hike by the BoE build. The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July at 06:00 GMT.  The inflation data could significantly affect market expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike in September, stirring volatility in the British Pound (GBP) as traders assess the impact of energy price swings driven by the Middle East war. What to expect from the next UK inflation report? The UK Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in July, up from 2.5% in June. If the reading comes as anticipated by economists, it would be the highest in four months and surpass the BoE’s forecast of 2.8%, moving further away from its 2% target. Core CPI inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, is expected to ease slightly to 2.5% YoY in the reported period. According to industry experts, official data is expected to show that service inflation, a key measure for BoE policymakers, arrived at 3.4% YoY in July. Meanwhile, the British monthly CPI is seen rising by 0.3% in the same period after a 0.1% growth in June. How will the UK Consumer Price Index report affect GBP/USD? Amid signs of a disinflationary trend in the UK, the upcoming CPI data will be critical to gauging whether the trend is reversing and significant enough to nudge the BoE to consider an interest rate hike at its September 17 monetary policy meeting. It’s the inflation print covering the month of the renewed outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, which lifted Oil prices up by roughly 22%. Therefore, an uptick in headline British inflation, both monthly and annual, may not come as a surprise. However, it remains to be seen whether the pick-up in inflation will likely sustain amid still elevated Oil prices, as US President Donald Trump said he has ruled out extending the Iran ceasefire deal. This matters as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in his post-monetary policy meeting press conference in July that "if the Mideast conflict persists and we get second-round effects, we will likely need to raise rates.” The July Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) read that "risks to inflation forecasts are tilted to upside, but scope remains for outlook to change materially depending on Iran war,” adding that "policy could need to react before inflation persistence risks materialise conclusively." Back in July, Bailey and company left rates unchanged at 3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, as expected. However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 to hold rates, a more divisive vote than the 7-2 split ​predicted.  Let’s analyse two main potential scenarios for the UK CPI release. Hotter-than-expected annual and monthly core CPI readings could lift the odds of a rate hike in September, as markets could view it as an insurance hike by the British central bank. In such a case, the Pound Sterling will receive fresh impetus, likely driving GBP/USD back above 1.3600. Conversely, a surprise cool-off in core inflation could push back against BoE rate hike bets, checking the pair’s recent uptrend and fuelling a corrective pullback. Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and explains: “GBP/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as spot remains comfortably above the major daily simple moving averages (SMA) clustered between roughly 1.3380 and 1.3440, suggesting a well-supported uptrend rather than a mere short-covering bounce. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 62 hints that buyers still retain control. On the downside, initial support is seen at the confluence zone of the 21-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs around 1.3420, forming a dense demand band just below. A deeper pullback would expose the 50-day SMA support at 1.3381, where dip-buying interest would be expected to emerge. Alternatively, recapturing the 1.3600 psychological level is critical to sustaining a meaningful uptrend. The next topside target is seen at the May high of 1.3658,” Dhwani adds.

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Markets

August 19, 2026

XAG/USD extends decline to near $63 amid continued energy supply risks

Silver price falls further to near $63 as global inflation projections remain de-anchored. US President Trump confirms no talks with Iran are going on. Investors await the FOMC Minutes of the July policy meeting. Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.5% to near $63.00 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal extends its Tuesday’s decline amid fears of prolonged inflation concerns on the back of continued energy supply disruption. As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades close to its two-week high at $85.11. Higher oil prices de-anchor global inflation expectations, a scenario that prompts fears of interest rate hikes from global central banks. Such a case diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets, like Silver. The energy supply disruption seems unlikely to get fixed anytime soon as US President Donald Trump has confirmed that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran”. Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting takes the centre stage, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors should not anticipate major cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook, as Chairman Kevin Warsh remained stick to “no forward guidance” on policy rates. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the September policy meeting. Silver Technical Analysis XAG/USD trades at $63.04, trading close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.41, suggesting a cautious near-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.59 stays in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is still present but no longer overstretched. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $62.41, where buyers are likely to defend the uptrend if corrective pressure extends, followed by the $60 round-level. Looking up, the August 10 high at around $66 act as key supply area.

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Palm Oil Hovers at 20-Week High

Malaysian palm oil futures rose further, trading near MYR 4,900 per tonne and reaching their highest level since early April. Support came from firmer edible oils in Dalian and Chicago markets, alongside stronger crude oil prices amid continued uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and potential disruptions to global trade flows. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council projected prices to stay firm above MYR 4,600 in September, citing tightening supply and trade disruptions. However, upside momentum was tempered by elevated inventories, with July stocks climbing to a five-month high. In India, record soyoil imports expected in August could dent palm oil demand, as refiners may favor cheaper soyoil ahead of festive-season consumption. Export signals were mixed: Intertek reported shipments down 7.9% during August 1–15 from the same period in July, while AmSpec estimated a 3.2% rise, leaving traders cautious on near-term direction.

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Copper Extends Fall as Supply Squeeze Eases

Copper futures slipped to around $6.45 per pound on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s losses as a pickup in metal deliveries to London Metal Exchange warehouses helped relieve a historic supply squeeze. LME copper inventories climbed by 20,000 tons on Tuesday, marking their biggest daily increase since April, with Trafigura Group reportedly responsible for a substantial portion of the inflows. Copper had rallied to record highs earlier this month as tightening global supply fueled gains, largely reflecting an arbitrage trade ahead of potential US import tariffs. Meanwhile, top producer Chile expects copper output to decline this year as ongoing disruptions continue to affect mines and development projects. The broader metals complex also faced pressure from elevated global bond yields and firmer oil prices, keeping inflationary pressures and interest rate risks at the forefront of investor concerns.

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Markets

August 19, 2026

Zinc Hovers Near 4-Year High

Zinc futures traded around $3,700 per tonne, near a four-year high, supported by tightening near-term supply, production disruptions, and low inventories. Heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of China, the world’s largest zinc producer, have threatened mining and smelting operations. On top of that, production adjustments at a mine in Southwest China are expected to reduce August zinc concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a smelter in Central China could cut refined production by another 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Supply concerns have also spread to other major producers. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production fell in the first half of 2026, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate output declined quarter-on-quarter and MMG’s production decreased year-on-year in Q2. Moreover, LME zinc inventories have dropped to their lowest level since December, while high canceled warrants and falling on-warrant stocks signal that less metal is readily available for immediate delivery.

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Energies

August 19, 2026

Heating Oil Extends Advance

US heating oil futures climbed above $4.50 per gallon on Wednesday, extending gains to their highest level since March, as the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns about prolonged supply disruptions. President Donald Trump said that no talks with Iran were taking place or planned, asserting that the US naval blockade remained active and that the strait was open after mines were cleared. Iran, however, countered that the waterway would remain closed until the US fulfilled its prior conditions. Traffic through the critical chokepoint came to a standstill over the weekend following attacks on vessels, underscoring persistent security risks to energy shipments. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted domestic fuel supplies, resulting in gasoline rationing in at least two regions and tighter controls on refined-product exports, with Russia extending its ban on petrol exports until January 2027 and diesel exports until August 2026.

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Energies

August 19, 2026

European Gas Rises Further as Supply Risks Mount

European natural gas prices rose further above €64 per MWh on Wednesday, the highest since January 2023, as concerns over a potential winter supply crunch intensified amid a lack of progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said that no talks with Iran are currently taking place or scheduled and that the US naval blockade remains in full force. He added that the strait is open and operating, in contrast to Iran’s position that the key waterway will remain closed until Washington meets its conditions. Traffic through the waterway has fallen to a standstill, stranding Qatari LNG tankers and delaying deliveries to Europe. The reduced inflow, combined with summer heatwaves that have boosted demand for gas-fired power generation for cooling, is slowing the seasonal buildup of gas inventories. As a result, traders are increasingly concerned that Europe could enter the winter heating season with insufficient reserves, keeping upward pressure on gas prices.

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Energies

August 18, 2026

Oil Prices Fall Following Trump’s Comments. Will Tehran Allow the U.S. to Take Control of the Strait of Hormuz?

President Donald Trump has posted a series of strong statements on Truth Social: No negotiations: “No talks are taking place with the Islamic Republic of Iran, nor are any planned.” The naval blockade continues: The US Navy operation targeting Iranian ports remains in full force. The Strait of Hormuz is ‘open’: The waterway is operational, and US forces have confirmed that all sea mines have been removed or detonated. Market reaction: Oil takes a breather Crude oil prices have fallen slightly following these comments. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and clearing the sea mines suggests that the physical flow of crude oil (which accounts for around 20 per cent of global supplies) may resume. Source: xStation A geopolitical shift in the balance of power Trump’s statements confirm what Washington has been announcing for some time: the US intends to exercise de facto unilateral control over the Strait of Hormuz . In recent days, the President has even suggested treating the strait as an area subject to US jurisdiction. This is a brutal move to strip Tehran of its most important bargaining chip. Until now, the threat of closing this chokepoint has been the main tool of Iran’s energy blackmail. What does Iran have to say about this? Chess or asymmetric warfare? For Tehran, losing control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a blow to its reputation and a strategic setback. Although the Iranian navy is on the defensive, a response is already taking shape and will be of an asymmetric nature. The Iranian military command has already commented on the opening of the strait, warning that ships may pass through it freely, but “once they have left it, they may find a few holes in their hulls”. Washington is attempting to demonstrate that it will use military force to enforce freedom of navigation and cripple the Iranian economy through a blockade. Iran, for its part, unable to engage in an open confrontation with the US Navy, will most likely revert to tactics of sabotage, drone attacks and shadow warfare to prove to the world that without Tehran’s consent, no oil transport from the Persian Gulf is entirely safe, and this casts a shadow over today’s downward trend in oil prices.

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Coffee Surges 3.4%

Spot market scarcity pushes calendar spreads to record highs 📈 Coffee futures are rallying strongly, climbing nearly 3% today as acute short-term supply constraints collide with contract expiry dynamics. The rally highlights an increasingly fractured market where prompt availability is under intense pressure even as medium-term production prospects look more balanced. Term Curve Dynamics: Backwardation and Steepening The coffee futures forward curve is exhibiting significant steepening in deep backwardation, where prompt delivery contracts trade at an aggressive premium relative to deferred maturities. Live pricing data shows September futures surging toward $3.47–$3.60/lb, while contracts further out the curve taper off sharply toward $3.18/lb for December and below $3.00/lb for deferred 2027/2028 tenors. This steep downward-sloping curve signals severe spot-market tightness. When prompt physical beans are scarce, buyers pay a substantial convenience yield for immediate delivery rather than waiting for future harvests to reach consuming ports. Coffee futures forward curves (current in white, yesterday’s in blue, one month ago in yellow). Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Why the September–December Gap Is Widening? The price gap between the near-term September contract and the later-dated December contract has widened dramatically, reaching nearly 30 cents/lb (up from 27.20 cents/lb at previous close). Key Drivers Behind the Spread Surge Imminent Contract Expiry & Short Squeeze: As the September arabica contract approaches expiry, short position holders face a forced choice: deliver physical certified coffee or buy back their paper contracts. This rush to cover has triggered an aggressive short squeeze, sharply reducing open interest and boosting spot prices. Depleted Exchange Inventories: ICE certified stockpiles have fallen consistently for over a month, sinking to multi-year lows. Harvest & Logistics Bottlenecks: Harvest delays in Brazil have slowed early arrivals to the market. Concurrently, severe logistical hurdles in Colombia following a major earthquake, compounded by mid-crop rainfall damage, have constrained near-term export flows. Spot Scarcity vs. Future Surplus: While immediate physical supplies are stranded or delayed, market consensus still anticipates a substantial Brazilian crop later in the 2026/27 cycle. This creates a sharp bifurcation: high prices today, followed by anticipated relief tomorrow. Coffee calendar spreads are at multiyear highs. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Weather Outlook across Key Growing Regions Physical market fundamentals remain heavily tethered to weather patterns across key arabica and robusta origins: Brazil: Experiencing seasonal dryness across central growing belts, which remains unfavorable for tree recovery and bean development. Colombia & Central America: Colombia contends with lingering export disruptions from excessive rainfall and seismic damage, while Mexico reports favorable crop conditions. East & West Africa: Ivory Coast, Ghana and East African producers (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania) see isolated to scattered showers with near-to-above normal temperatures. Asia-Pacific: Vietnam benefits from mostly favorable monsoon showers supporting robusta development, while Indonesia experiences fair conditions alongside continuing seasonal dryness. Technical Analysis: COFFEE (D1) Arabica futures rebound aggressively today, staging a decisive breakout above the EMA30 ($318.85) while price holds firmly around the EMA10 level ($323.36). Despite recent multi-week consolidation and the sharp dip triggered by the contract rollover, the technical backdrop remains bullish. The moving average alignment reinforces an underlying bullish structure, with EMA10 positioned above EMA30 and EMA100. Sustaining momentum above the EMA10 support keeps the broader upward trajectory intact, clearing the way for buyers to target the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ($330.07) and recent local swing highs near $350. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Commodity Wrap – Copper, Oil, Gold, Natgas

Market Situation During today's session on the commodities market, the agriculture and food sector is performing best, where orange juice (+3.18%) and sugar (+2.67%) continue strong weekly gains. Despite generally mixed sentiments – only 11 out of 26 observed assets are becoming more expensive – extremely high long-term valuations draw attention. Industrial and precious metals, led by copper (+3.19σ from the 5Y average) and gold (+3.11σ), remain drastically deviated upwards from their multi-year norms. In the short term, however, we are observing a slight correction in the precious metals segment (platinum -1.36%, silver -1.10%), mainly caused by the strengthening of the dollar and an increase in US Treasury bond yields. These factors pushed the price of gold below the level of 4400 USD per ounce, momentarily neutralizing the demand for safe havens. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco refineries, maintain a high risk premium in the fuel market. In the near future, observing further changes in the US debt market and the development of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz will be key for investors, which will directly affect the volatility of oil and bullion prices. European gas, wheat, cotton, zinc, and soybeans remain clearly overbought relative to the 2-year average. Technically, precious metals other than gold remain quite clearly oversold. None of the commodities currently show extreme overselling in the medium term. Source: XTB Copper Copper spot prices fell to 14008.0 USD per ton after an earlier test of around 14400 USD, reflecting an extremely strong market structure despite the slight current cooling. At the beginning of the new week, the price failed to close at a new historic high. The highest intraday level was 14515 reached on January 29, when we dealt with a metal market collapse (mainly gold and silver). On a daily basis, the price fell by 0.77%, and on a weekly scale, it slipped by 0.53%, which should be interpreted as natural profit-taking after previous dynamic increases. In the monthly horizon, copper gained 2.86%, has grown by 12.52% since the beginning of the year (YTD), and over the last twelve months, the rate of return is an impressive 44.68%. Such high annual dynamics confirm that this metal is in a structural bull market, driven by both macroeconomic factors and tensions in the physical supply chain. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at level 71 signals copper's entry into the overbought zone, which explains the minor downward correction observed in recent days. Moving averages (SMA) and the MACD indicator maintain strong bullish signals, and the price itself is 2.57% above its 50-day moving average (SMA50), confirming the dominance of buyers. Overall market sentiment remains bullish. The key resistance for further increases is the psychological barrier of 14200 USD and historical highs, while the most important technical support is placed in the SMA50 region at approximately 13650 USD, and in the case of a deeper retreat, at the round level of 13000 USD. The most important driver of current copper prices is the unprecedented tension in the physical market caused by the massive redirection of supplies to the United States. As reported by Bloomberg, importers and speculators are aggressively buying and shipping metal to the US, trying to get ahead of a potential decision by the Donald Trump administration to impose import tariffs on refined copper. This buying fever led to extreme market tightening (squeeze) on the LME exchange, where the spot price exceeded the three-month contract by as much as 400-500 USD per ton. Such a state of backwardation is the highest since the historic supply crisis of 2021 and clearly indicates the lack of physically available metal in warehouses. ING, in its latest commentary regarding copper, indicates that these supply constraints will strongly support prices in the near future. Long-term demand remains unshaken due to the energy transition, the expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence (AI), and difficulties in financing and launching new mining projects. Forward curve from the copper market, where the spot market from a perspective of a few days is distant by as much as several hundred dollars on one ton. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP The difference between the spot price and the 3-month futures contract on the LME reaches over 400 USD. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Inventories on the three largest exchanges are falling, which is primarily related to the shrinking of inventories in London and Shanghai. US inventories are growing all the time. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Copper inventories in China are extremely low, while almost the entire drop in London is related to the transfer of inventories to the US. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Historical Valuation (Z-score) Analysis of standard deviation indicators (Z-score) indicates a significant historical overvaluation of copper, especially in the long horizon. The Z-score for the 1-year period (Z1Y) is +1.25, for the 2-year period (Z2Y) it reaches +1.80, and for the 5-year period (Z5Y) it stands at a very high level of +3.17. Analyzing the trajectory of the 5-year Z-score (currently +3.17, a month ago +3.01, three months ago +3.22, six months ago +3.34), we see that after a period of slight cooling of valuations from late spring and summer, the pressure on overvaluation in the last month has again begun to mount (increase from +3.01 to +3.17). This is a clear warning signal for medium-term investors, suggesting that the market is currently paying a high premium for the risk of physical shortage of the raw material. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Breaking resistance at the level of 14200 USD will open the way to a rally towards 14800 USD. The technical condition is for the price to stay above the SMA50, while the fundamental one in the medium term is the official introduction of tariffs by the US and further deepening of backwardation on the LME, testifying to the lack of real deliveries. Bearish Scenario: Breaking support at the level of 13650 USD (SMA50) may trigger cascading profit-taking with a target around 13000 USD. This scenario will materialize if the US administration withdraws from tariff rhetoric, leading to the resolution of logistical bottlenecks and the return of copper to LME warehouses. Gold The price of gold on the spot market currently stands at 4391 USD per ounce (Source: xStation5). On a daily basis, the bullion is recording a drop of 0.61%, and on a weekly scale, it is losing 0.43%, which constitutes a momentary breather after the extremely dynamic rally of recent weeks. On a monthly basis, gold is recording a spectacular increase of 9.51%, contrasting with the relatively flat result since the beginning of the year (YTD +1.33%). An annual return at the level of +32.38% confirms, however, that gold remains one of the most desired hedging assets in 2026, reacting to a sudden jump in global geopolitical risk. After a highly speculative beginning of the year and an increase in negative correlation with US yields, investors are again turning to gold in the context of hedging against risk, both geopolitical and market-related associated with high valuations in the market. The RSI for gold is 74, which means the market is technically overbought and susceptible to short-term profit-taking. Interestingly, despite the MACD generating bullish signals and the price being as much as 5.77% above its 50-day moving average (SMA50), the long-term SMA arrangement is described as bearish, which may result from previous multi-month consolidation. Market sentiment is currently neutral. The key resistance level remains the psychological boundary of 4450-4500 USD per ounce, while the most important support is the SMA50 level, located around 4150 USD. The main driver of gold as the "most effective commodity investment of 2026" is a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds rose to their highest levels since 2007 (just before the outbreak of the global financial crisis), which usually weighed on non-interest-bearing gold. However, in current conditions, investors treat this increase in yields as a warning signal against entrenched, high inflation caused by the Middle East crisis and rising US debt. The ongoing conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and the failure of peace talks between the US and Iran build a powerful fear premium. Additionally, market attention is focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, which will determine further dollar movements, while silver consolidates around 65 USD, waiting for an impulse from the gold market. Apart from strong demand from central banks in Q2 (almost 300 tons), we currently observe a clear return of speculative and long-term capital: the former in the form of an increase in long positions on COMEX and in Shanghai, and the latter in the form of a recovery on the side of ETF funds. We continue to observe a recovery from buyers in China, but long and net positions on the American COMEX have also started to rebound. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB ETF funds continue to buy gold and the current rebound from mid-July is already greater than that recorded in April. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB A weighing factor for gold may be the recent increase in yields, although at the same time it may result from long-term concerns about inflation (gold in the long term is positively correlated with inflation) and concerns about the fiscal situation in the USA. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gold is currently around the 100-period average, still resisting the resistance at the 50.0 retracement, which is at the level of 4400. The range of the rebound from April would indicate the possibility of testing around 4500 USD per ounce. Source: xStation5 Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score indicators for gold appear ambiguous depending on the time horizon. The short-term Z1Y is only +0.08, suggesting a valuation close to the annual average, while Z2Y is +0.92. The true deviation is seen in the 5-year view, where Z5Y is as high as +3.11. Analysis of the historical Z5Y trajectory (currently +3.11, a month ago +2.75, three months ago +3.57, six months ago +4.54) provides key conclusions: after a sharp drop in overvaluation from an extreme level of +4.54 half a year ago to +2.75 a month ago, in recent weeks overvaluation has begun to grow again (+3.11). This means that after a period of summer normalization, the market is again entering a phase of slight overheating. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 4450 USD will open the way for a test of the 4600 USD level, although there is also an important resistance zone at 4500 USD ahead of us. The fundamental condition is further long-term concern about inflation and a lack of reaction from the American Fed, which may affect the weakening of the dollar. Bearish Scenario: A drop below support at the 4300 USD level could bring the price towards the SMA50 (4150 USD). The condition for such a development of events would be a sudden agreement between Washington and Tehran and a hawkish surprise from the Fed, raising real interest rates. Oil WTI The price of WTI oil is slightly above 84 USD per barrel. On a daily basis, the commodity was rising by about 0.3%, but just before 12, almost the entire upward move was neutralized. Nonetheless, since Monday, we have still been observing a large upward move related to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. On a weekly scale, it brought an increase of 2.14%, and on a monthly scale by 2.34%. Crude oil is one of the unquestionable leaders in rates of return in 2026, as since the beginning of the year (YTD) its price has risen by 47.26% (nominal rate of return not including futures contract rollovers), while in annual terms it has gained 36.04%. These data show that the oil market has permanently broken out of previous low oscillation ranges and moved to higher price levels, reacting to geopolitical supply blockades. The RSI indicator for WTI oil is 50, which indicates full market neutrality and a lack of signals about overbuying or overselling. Both moving averages (SMA) and MACD generate bullish signals, and the current price is 7.51% above its 50-day moving average (SMA50). Technical market sentiment is described as bullish. The nearest and key resistance is the zone around 88.00-90.00 USD per barrel, which has been preventing stronger increases for a long time. Key support is at the SMA50 level (approx. 78.40 USD) and at the psychological boundary of 80.00 USD. The fundamental situation in the oil market is dominated by a geopolitical impasse in the Middle East. According to the AFP agency, hopes for a quick agreement between the US and Iran on opening the Strait of Hormuz collapsed after Donald Trump refused to extend the 60-day truce, and Tehran considered the current memorandum dead. Additional tension was triggered by Trump's threats regarding a possible strike on Oman if it interfered with American plans for control of the strait. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced for next week the imposition of sanctions on Iran on a scale "the world has not seen yet." On the demand-supply side, JODI/OPEC data indicate some cooling of domestic demand in China, which forced local refineries to increase fuel exports by 6.7% m/m (although y/y exports fell by 12.9% due to swelling domestic inventories). Despite this, concerns about a physical blockade of deliveries through Hormuz prevail over weaker data from Asia. In the United States, we still see huge tension in the fuel market. The spread between diesel and oil already reaches 100 USD on a barrel and equals the levels observed in 2022. An important factor in the context of fuels is the ongoing El Niño, which statistically led to less intense hurricanes in the autumn period in the United States, which may mean normal fuel production in the coming weeks. The diesel premium over the oil price in the US rose above 100 dollars per barrel. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The current forward curve resembles the shape of the curve from 4 months ago, which may mean that with the current status in the Middle East maintained, the current curve may be an important determinant. Brent oil is valued at 80 USD per barrel in July 2027. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP The crude oil market in July was relatively balanced, which was possible thanks to a rebound in production in the Middle East and demand destruction in Asia. A price increase to 100 USD could lead to a further drop in demand. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB WTI oil pulls back slightly from its highest levels since the end of July. However, the price remains below the key resistance zone at 88-90 USD and below the downward trend line. Source: xStation5 Historical Valuation (Z-score) Z-score indicators suggest that despite strong YTD gains, the valuation of WTI oil in a broader time horizon remains relatively moderate. The 1-year Z-score (Z1Y) is +0.65, 2-year (Z2Y) is +1.09, and 5-year (Z5Y) stands at +0.84. Analysis of the Z5Y trajectory (currently +0.84, a month ago +0.72, three months ago +2.02, six months ago -0.24) reveals interesting dynamics. After a sudden jump in valuation 3 months ago (+2.02), which was a reaction to the outbreak of the crisis, the market underwent a deep normalization to the level of +0.72, and is currently showing a delicate upward trend (+0.84). This means that the current price is stabilizing close to historical averages, which reduces the risk of a sudden speculative bubble burst. Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Breaking resistance at the 88.00 USD level and moving towards 95.00 USD per barrel. This scenario will materialize in the event of further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, and above all an American strike on oil infrastructure in Iran. Bearish Scenario: Falling below support at the 80.00 USD level with a target at the SMA50 (78.40 USD). The technical condition is a permanent break of the 80 USD barrier, and the fundamental one – de-escalation of the conflict through Oman's diplomacy and further growth of commercial inventories in the USA and China, with a simultaneous slowdown in global demand. Natgas As of August 18, 2026, natural gas prices in the US (NATGAS) are at 2.692 USD/MMBtu. On a daily basis, the commodity records a cosmetic loss of -0.19%, fitting into a broader, strongly downward trend observed in recent weeks. On a weekly scale, gas is becoming cheaper by 3.48%, and in a monthly perspective, the drop already reaches almost 5%. The most telling, however, is the rate of return from the beginning of the year (YTD), which amounts to as much as -26.08%, which clearly testifies to the structural weakness of this market in 2026. Compared to the same period last year, the price is lower by 2.39%. These data show that the natural gas market in the US is under high supply pressure, even though during the winter period stocks fell clearly below the 5-year average. From a technical perspective, the NATGAS market image remains under the dominant influence of the bears. The price of the instrument is as much as 9.45% below its 50-day moving average (SMA50), confirming a strong, medium-term downward trend. Nevertheless, some short-term indicators are starting to send warning signals for sellers. The MACD indicator generated a bullish signal, which may herald an attempt to determine a local bottom or transition into a consolidation phase. The RSI oscillator is at 47, which means neutral territory and leaves space for movement in both directions without the risk of immediate overbuying or overselling of the market. Overall market sentiment is described as neutral. The key support level for market bulls remains the psychological barrier of 2.50 USD/MMBtu, while the nearest important technical resistance is the region of 2.95 USD/MMBtu (coinciding with the SMA50) and the 3.00 USD/MMBtu level. The fundamental situation in the natural gas market is torn between record-high domestic supply in the US and growing global geopolitical tension, which indirectly affects the global LNG market. According to current reports from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the high level of shale gas production in the United States and high stock levels (significantly exceeding the 5-year average for this time of year) effectively suppress demand pressure. The situation is also not favored by seasonality: in the second half of August, the market enters the so-called shoulder season, when the demand for energy for air conditioning begins to fall, and the heating demand has not yet appeared. This will lead to a clear increase in inventories again. On the other hand, the global energy landscape is extremely tense due to events in the Middle East. The price of Brent oil exceeded the barrier of 91 USD per barrel, and TTF gas, whose price is linked to the global LNG market, rose to 62 EUR/MWH after an unidentified missile hit a commercial ship passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Although this incident directly hits the oil market (WTI consolidates below 84.50 USD, showing a strong upward structure), it is of colossal importance for gas. The Strait of Hormuz is a key artery for Qatari LNG. As indicated by the latest Bloomberg Intelligence report, the so-called "Hormuz Strait shock" forces Gulf countries to deeply revise investment plans towards building infrastructure resilience. ADNOC (UAE national concern) is considering building an LNG terminal on the east coast so as not to be dependent on the flow of gas carriers through the strait. A possible blockade or further escalation in the region could cut off a significant part of global liquefied gas supplies to Europe and Asia, which would trigger a rapid increase in LNG gas prices. Theoretically, natural gas prices in the USA could also react upwardly, despite clearly supply-side foundations in the USA. Additionally, improving economic sentiment in Europe (the German ZEW institute index rose in August to 34.2 points, outperforming forecasts at 30.0 points) may, in the long term, herald a stronger recovery in industrial demand for blue fuel on the Old Continent. Gas demand remains at a high level, while prices continue to fall. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The implied change for inventories this week indicates balanced supply and demand. Standardly, however, already in the second half of August we have a clear drop in short-term demand. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gas stocks in the USA are above the 5-year average. High production, which already reaches 114 bcfd with limited demand in subsequent weeks, may cause stock replenishment to end close to 4000 BCF. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The number of short positions on American gas has risen to an extremely high level. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB If temperatures in the USA fall, a return of downward pressure will be possible after the next futures contract rollover. At the same time, we observe the potential formation of an inverted head and shoulders (iH&S) formation with a neckline around 2.8. Source: xStation5 Historical Valuation (Z-score) Statistical analysis based on standard deviation indicators (Z-score) clearly indicates that natural gas is currently valued significantly below its historical averages. Short-term Z-score indicators for the annual period (Z1Y: -1.04) and two-year period (Z2Y: -1.07) suggest a clear undervaluation of the commodity. Key conclusions, however, are provided by the analysis of the trajectory of the 5-year Z-score indicator (Z5Y). It currently stands at -0.55, while a month ago it was at -0.39, three months ago it was -0.30, and half a year ago -0.28. Such dynamics mean that the negative deviation from the 5-year average is systematically growing (undervaluation is deepening). This is a strong warning signal that shows that the market does not show a tendency to return to the mean (mean reversion), but undergoes further price degradation, which historically often heralded an extension of the bear market period. Scenarios Bullish Scenario Fundamental conditions: To realize this scenario, it is necessary to have an even greater disruption of LNG supplies from the Middle East or a sudden appearance of forecasts heraldings an extremely frosty start to winter in the USA and Europe, which with the ongoing El Niño is currently unlikely. An additional impulse would be the limitation of production by American shale producers, confirmed by EIA stock reports showing a decrease. Price levels: Breaking resistance at 2.8 USD/MMBtu, and later at the level of 2.95 USD/MMBtu (SMA50) will open the way to a quick test of the psychological barrier of 3.00 USD/MMBtu. A permanent breakout above this level could fuel a short-squeeze rally towards 3.40–3.50 USD/MMBtu. Bearish Scenario Fundamental conditions: Maintaining the current record-high gas production in the US while at the same time a lack of weather anomalies in the autumn (warm September and October). A quick de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a return to safe shipping in the Persian Gulf region would eliminate the geopolitical premium, leaving the market under the pressure of local oversupply. Price levels: Falling below key support at the 2.50 USD/MMBtu level. Breaking this technical barrier will open the way to deepening the historical undervaluation (in accordance with the Z5Y indicator trend) and testing lows in the 2.20 USD/MMBtu region, and in extreme cases even the psychological 2.00 USD/MMBtu level.

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Swiss Franc: Growing role as funding currency – ING

Chris Turner at ING highlights low volatility weighing on the Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY), with investors increasingly favouring franc funding to avoid potential Yen intervention. Short CHF/JPY is seen as a carry-positive way to express a Yen view. For EUR/CHF, a move toward 0.95 likely needs higher Oil prices and broadly higher rates, given the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) anchored zero-rate stance. Franc funding and CHF/JPY carry appeal "Low volatility is continuing to weigh on key funding currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. While the yen may be preferred as a funding currency because of its deeper liquidity pools, we think investors will increasingly turn to franc funding – not only for cheaper borrowing costs but also to avoid the risk of sudden yen buying intervention from Tokyo and Washington." "And if investors do believe intervention is going to be effective, short CHF/JPY positions will become increasingly popular. This is not only because short CHF/JPY is one of the few ways to express a carry-positive yen view, but because the two currencies have similar investment characteristics." "As to EUR/CHF, a break towards 0.95 probably requires higher oil prices and higher interest rates across the board, where the Swiss National Bank’s anchored zero rate policy leads to franc underperformance."

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Thailand: Middle East shock tests growth – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng reviews Thailand’s latest macro data, noting Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 1.9% year-on-year in 2Q26 from 2.8% in 1Q26, bringing 1H26 growth to 2.4%. He raises the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1%, citing a less severe Middle East shock, policy support, strong Goods exports and resilient private investment, while expecting the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its policy rate at 1.00%. Growth, consumption and policy outlook "GDP growth slowed to 1.9% yoy in 2Q26 from a strong 2.8% yoy in 1Q, bringing 1H26 growth to 2.4% yoy. We raise our 2026 growth forecast to 2.1%, due to a less severe-than-expected Middle East shock and policy support." "Overall economic weakness in 2Q26 was driven by slower private and government consumption growth, despite strong investment expansion. Private consumption growth eased to its lowest rate since the end of 2021, but could be supported by government stimulus introduced from June 2026." "While visitor arrivals rebounded in July 2026, sustained momentum into the year-end peak season will be key to support the recovery. Goods exports remain in solid shape and are providing strong support to the economy in 2026 amid global artificial intelligence tailwinds, while the investment upcycle remains intact in 2Q26, with growth sustaining strong momentum at close to its highest rate since 1Q15." "We think the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will have little urgency to adjust policy in the near term. The BoT will aim to support growth, which is low and uneven, as it expects inflation to ease alongside energy prices." "We continue to expect the BoT to keep its policy rate stable at 1.00% through the remainder of 2026."

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Banks

August 18, 2026

China: Credit-light growth reshapes loan demand – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Carol Liao and Moriarty Lam analyze slowing loan growth in China despite stable real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and recent reflation. They note broad-based weakness across housing-related lending and other sectors, as new services and high-tech growth engines are more credit-light and rely more on direct financing. This transition is seen as critical for China’s debt sustainability and financial-market development. Loan growth slowdown and structural shift "China’s loan growth has continued to decelerate, despite relatively stable real GDP growth and recent reflation." "The slowdown is broad-based: housing-related lending has contracted, and loan growth in the rest of the economy has also slowed since 2023, including in relatively resilient sectors such as light industries and services." "China’s emerging growth engines, such as services and high-tech industries, are less loan-intensive than traditional growth drivers such as housing and infrastructure." "This shift matters for China’s debt sustainability and financial-market development." "Furthermore, with savings remaining abundant while loan demand softens, interest rates are likely to remain low for longer."

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Japanese Yen: Bearish bias within tight range against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY’s slight increase in upward momentum after trading between 158.82 and 159.59 still falls short of signaling a sustained advance, keeping intraday price action likely confined to 159.00–159.80. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the bias remains tilted to the upside, with a 158.00–160.20 range expected to contain moves. Japanese Yen stays under mild pressure "24-HOUR VIEW: We highlighted yesterday that “the outlook is unclear, and USD could trade between 158.80 and 159.60.” USD subsequently fluctuated between 158.82 and 159.59, closing little changed at 159.43 (+0.08%). The price action has resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum, but it is insufficient to indicate a sustained advance. Today, USD could edge higher, but it is likely to stay within a 159.00/159.80 range." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held the view that “the bias for USD is on the upside” since a week ago. In our most recent narrative from last Friday (14 Aug, spot at 159.40), we highlighted the following: “While USD has been unable to make much headway on the upside, the underlying tone still appears to be firm, and the bias remains tilted to the upside. That said, a narrower range of 158.00/160.20 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.” We continue to hold the same view."

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Brent: Rally extends above $91/bbl – ING

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Brent Oil has extended its rally, trading above $91/bbl as geopolitical risks and supply concerns support prices. They highlight US President Donald Trump's decision on the US-Iran peace agreement, security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify export routes away from the Persian Gulf. Geopolitics and supply underpin Brent "Oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive session, with ICE Brent trading above $91/bbl. Sentiment remained supported by US President Donald Trump's decision not to extend the US-Iran peace agreement and continued security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of supply disruptions." "Saudi Arabia is reportedly offering crude cargoes from locations off the coast of Oman, signalling efforts to expand export routes outside the Persian Gulf. Saudi Aramco is marketing Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades via ship-to-ship transfers from terminals including Sohar." "Chinese refinery throughput fell 15.8% year-on-year to 12.5m b/d in July, highlighting weak refining activity. Apparent oil demand also declined 17.5% YoY to 12.04m b/d amid softer industrial activity, weak refining margins and growing EV adoption." "Middle distillates strengthened further, with the ICE gasoil crack nearing $76/t. Support came from reports of Ukrainian attacks on Russia's Ust-Luga processing facility and ongoing Russian diesel export restrictions." "Reflecting tighter market expectations, speculative net-long positions rose for a sixth consecutive week to their highest level since February."

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Euro: Overvaluation and energy risks weigh against US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG’s Halpenny notes that EUR/USD remains capped near its 200-day moving average at 1.1630 and is 2.5%-3.0% overvalued in the bank’s short-term model. He warns that energy-driven growth risks and broader inflation pressures could weaken yield support for the Euro, leaving it vulnerable to underperformance. Euro faces technical and macro headwinds "The worsening US dollar sentiment following the data releases last week that has helped ease Fed rate hike expectations has not translated into any great sell-off – as mentioned yesterday, DXY remains supported above the 200-day moving average level of 99.185. " "A break of that level could add momentum to this dollar turn and extend the move. With EUR key in the DXY basket, the equivalent EUR/USD level is close as well – the 200-day moving average is offering resistance at 1.1630." "Yield has played a key role supporting EUR but that support would likely start to fade if growth concerns pick up on energy price concerns or signs of broader inflation in for example food." "Our short-term regression model for EUR/USD already indicates current spot is about 2.5%-3.0% overvalued and if these factors start to impact sentiment and economic activity, we could start to see EUR underperform." "Today’s ZEW Expectations index will be interesting to see whether any of these risks are beginning to play a role in dampening sentiment. It could be a signal of building downside risks for EUR over the coming months."

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Banks

August 18, 2026

United Kingdom: Stagnation with stabilisation signs – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja notes that while the United Kingdom (UK) economy has exceeded expectations, the labour market remains stagnant, with the jobless rate stuck at 4.9% and payrolled employees falling. Wage growth continues to slow, but stabilisation signals are emerging in vacancies, redundancies, claimant count and labour market flows, leaving the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) likely sidelined ahead of key inflation data. Labour data hint at stabilisation "While the UK economy has outperformed expectations, the labour market remains stagnant." "On the quantities side of the labour market, the jobless rate stayed flat at 4.9% (against our expectation of a slight drop to 4.8%). HMRC payroll data, though volatile, also showed a 13k drop in monthly payrolled employees. On wage growth, the slowdown in private sector pay continued, with Average Weekly Earnings slowing to 2.8% (3m/YoY)." "But it’s not all bad news. If you look closer, there may be some tentative signs of stabilisation brewing in the labour market. First, job vacancies – the best proxy for jobs demand – slowed, but only to 707k (from 711k) in the three months to July. To be sure, vacancies have been moving in a very tight range all year – signalling that we may be near the nadir in jobs demand. The vacancy to unemployment ratio – a good gauge of labour market tightness – has also been stable for a few months now at 0.4." "Second, the number of redundancies over the same period slowed to 106k – its lowest level since July 2025. Third, the claimant count also dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%. " "Fourth, labour market flows point to some momentum in activity too. The underemployment rate dropped from 8.6% in Q1-26 to 8% in Q2-26. Job churn (i.e. job to job moves) also rose in Q2-26 to 2.4%. And the UK quits rate picked up for the first time since spring last year (0.8%)." "Put simply, while the labour market may seem stagnant on the surface, there are some signs of stabilisation on the horizon. For the MPC, today’s data won’t do much to move the dial. Weakness in headline indicators should keep the MPC stuck on the sidelines for now as markets turn their focus to tomorrow’s inflation data."

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Fragile recovery tied to US – Commerzbank

Commerzbank FX analyst Michael Pfister highlights that the Canadian Dollar’s recent weakness contrasts with a fragile recovery in Canada’s real economy. Labour market data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprises and stronger PMIs point to improving conditions, while CAD remains heavily influenced by Oil prices and relatively unattractive Canadian interest rate expectations versus the US. Commerzbank’s forecasts see EUR/CAD around 1.60–1.62 and USD/CAD easing toward 1.35 by late 2027. CAD recovery versus oil and US risks "It has now become a familiar picture: the Canadian dollar is once again among the worst performers of the G10 currencies this year. But the conditions were actually much more favourable this time around. The Bank of Canada had practically exhausted its scope for further interest rate cuts, and the conflict in Iran had driven energy prices significantly higher, which benefits Canadian exports." "These expectations have since been revised by the market, with expectations for the BoC now falling even behind those for the Bank of Japan. This is one of the main reasons for higher USD/CAD levels: fewer interest rate hikes are expected from the Bank of Canada, while more are priced in for the Fed." "The performance of the Canadian dollar has understandably been closely linked to the oil price in recent months. This trend is likely to continue unless the Strait of Hormuz is kept open on a sustained basis. Volatility in the oil markets, however, has obscured the fact that the Canadian real economy has begun a fragile recovery in recent months. The relationship with the US remains crucial to this upturn, and thus as well as to the Canadian dollar." "Leading indicators suggest that this trend is likely to continue. The Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector has stabilised firmly in expansionary territory, and exports have also increased recently. In short, even though we only have a few months' worth of data so far, it seems that the Canadian real economy is improving again, at least for the time being." "We remain fundamentally optimistic that this recovery will be more sustainable this time and that the Canadian dollar will finally start to appreciate again in the coming months. But it will likely be a long road, with setbacks caused by the US President along the way."

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Forex Trading

August 18, 2026

Trade of The Day: EUR/AUD

Facts: Short term sentiment remains downward The price reacted to the horizontal resistance area at 1.6300 Recommendation: Trade: Short EURAUD at market price Target: 1.6250, 1.6233 Stop: 1.6330 Opinion: Looking at the EURAUD chart from a short-term perspective, we can see that the price bounced off the key resistance today. The area at 1.6300 is marked with previous price reactions. According to the classic technical analysis, the further downward move looks to be the base case scenario. In addition the price sits below the 100-period moving average from the H1 interval. We recommend going short EURAUD at market price with two targets: 1.6250 and 1.6233. We also recommend placing stop loss at 1.6330. Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 18, 2026

British Pound: Softer as jobs data cools hikes – ING

ING’s Chris Turner reports a firmer EUR/GBP after UK labour data, with economist James Smith highlighting a cool jobs market and minimal wage pressures, implying little impetus for Bank of England hikes this year. Sterling money markets still price 60bp of BoE tightening into next year, which Turner expects to be gradually priced out, with EUR/GBP biased toward 0.8570/0.8580. Jobs data temper BoE expectations "EUR/GBP has opened up a little firmer on the release of the latest jobs data." "Nothing particularly earth-shattering in the latest UK jobs figures. Payrolled employment is down a touch – though this masks big differences between government (which is still actively hiring), consumer services (where job numbers are consistently falling and the pace of decline is getting worse) and the remaining private sector, which is flatlining." "The unemployment rate is up a touch, though the ONS has already revealed there are temporary sampling issues with the labour force survey underpinning it (on top of the well-publicised existing problems), so I'd take that data with a pinch of salt." "Still, the basic story is the same – the jobs market remains cool,

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Banks

August 18, 2026

US Dollar: Carry-supported but rangebound near term – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that still-attractive US Dollar (USD) carry and softer United States (US) data, which have reduced the odds of a September Fed hike, should keep the Dollar rangebound. They argue that as long as long-end US yields do not rise significantly further, risk assets and carry trades should stay supported. Markets now focus on the July FOMC minutes for clarity on Fed inflation views and rate intentions. Fed expectations and carry trades "Oil, yields and geopolitics are keeping markets on edge. Still, reduced Fed tightening expectations should keep the USD rangebound and preserve support for carry trades." "The combination of still-attractive USD carry and a pause in the USD's bullish momentum, following softer US economic data that has reduced the likelihood of a September Fed hike, should keep the greenback rangebound in the near term." "Provided long-end US yields do not rise significantly further, the broader risk backdrop should remain supportive of carry trades." "This week's key event is the release of the July FOMC minutes. Markets will look for greater clarity on policymakers' inflation views and the extent of support for keeping rates unchanged, beyond the three regional Fed presidents reportedly favouring higher rates." "While the minutes have been partly overtaken by softer July labour market

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Equities: Stagflation fears weigh on US stocks – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists note that rising oil prices are reinforcing stagflation concerns and weighing on equities globally. The S&P 500 posted its worst session of August so far as market breadth weakened sharply, while European shares also declined and the negative momentum extended into Asian markets overnight. Stagflation pressure hits equities "Indeed, Brent crude oil (+2.65%) closed above $90/bbl yesterday for the first time in two weeks, and this morning we’ve seen a further +0.72% rise to $91.52/bbl. So that’s led to pressure across the board, with the S&P 500 (-0.52%) slipping back, and futures are pointing to another -0.32% decline today. " "For equities, the stagflationary impulse from higher oil prices meant it was a similar story of declines on both sides of the Atlantic. So by the close, the S&P 500 (-0.52%) posted its worst day of August so far, and it would have been worse had it not been for a rebound in chip stocks, as the Philly semiconductor index closed up +1.64% on the day." "Otherwise though, the S&P 500 saw the most daily decliners (367) since early July as all major sector groups except energy fell on the day, and the equal-weighted index (-0.92%) also had its worst day in over a month." "Over in Europe, markets closed before the weakening fully played out, but the STOXX 600 (-0.22%) still posted a 4th consecutive decline, alongside bigger losses for the DAX (-0.38%) and the CAC 40 (-0.66%)." "That negative trend has been clear overnight in Asia, where most of the major indices have lost ground this morning, including the Nikkei (-1.64%), the KOSPI (-0.60%), the Hang Seng (-0.65%), CSI 300 (-0.79%) and

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Gold remains depressed below $4,400 as USD firms amid oil-driven inflation fears

Gold struggles to capitalize on a two-day uptrend amid the emergence of some USD buying. Rising oil prices keep inflation risks and Fed rate hike bets on the table, underpinning the buck. The US-Iran standoff further benefits the USD’s safe-haven status and weighs on the commodity. Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to modest intraday losses below the $4,400 mark heading into the European session on Tuesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the overnight bounce from a two-month trough as inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices underpin prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Moreover, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and further underpins the safe-haven Greenback, which, in turn, is seen exerting pressure on the precious metal. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump said that Iran should surrender to end a nearly six-month-long war. Trump added that the US is not seeking an extension of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which expired on Monday. Furthermore, Trump repeated his idea of declaring the critical Strait of Hormuz as a US territory and warned that he would target Oman if it hindered actions to reopen the strategic waterway. This comes as the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen escalated their campaign against Saudi Arabia. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group used several ballistic missiles to target a Saudi military landing ship and four accompanying patrol boats off the coast of Mokha. This could further disrupt commercial shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait – one of the world's most important trade routes – and fuel energy supply concerns, lifting crude oil prices to a two-week high. Investors remain worried that higher energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures, which, along with hawkish Fed expectations, remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. According to TD Securities, the Fed is likely to "remain on hold over our forecast horizon," with the policy stance anchored by the view that "inflation should remain high for the rest of the year" and that "the labor market has stabilized, allowing the FOMC to shift focus to its inflation mandate." The bank adds that, "if the Fed were to move this year, we believe that move is more likely to be a hike than a cut," noting that under "a new management that espouses a blurrier reaction function, data dependence will likely gain prominence for determining the path ahead for monetary policy." This offsets last week's soft US inflation and Retail Sales data, which forced investors to scale back their bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning around a 64% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at the September 2026 meeting. Investors, however, are still pricing in a greater possibility that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The outlook helps revive demand for the Greenback and prompts some intraday selling around the non-yielding Gold, though the downside seems limited. Traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciation. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the precious metal continues its struggle to find acceptance above the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline. Momentum indicators, however, stay constructive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.47 holds in bullish territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, hinting that selling pressure is corrective rather than impulsive. However, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond last week's swing high, around $4,450, before positioning for further gains toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,508. On the downside, first support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,302.33, with further demand expected at the 23.6% level at $4,164.44 and then around the structural floor anchored near $3,941.54, where buyers would likely attempt to arrest a deeper correction.

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI inflow strategy recalibrated – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts describe how the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) early closure of the FCNR(B) swap window follows strong FX inflows and rising liquidity costs. The move removes a source of bond demand and rupee liquidity, while RBI’s larger reserves and forward book reduce the need for further liabilities. USD/INR remains range-bound, with intervention containing volatility and depreciation risks. FCNR window closure and INR outlook "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that it will close its concessional FX swap facility for FCNR(B) deposits on 31 August, a month ahead of the original 30 September deadline. RBI attributed the early closure to the “encouraging response to the swap facility for FCNR(B) deposits and the resulting FX inflows”. As of 13 August, the facility had attracted USD52.3bn." "The decision was unexpected and surprised markets as RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had said just over a week earlier that there was no proposal to close the scheme prematurely. Measures to support inflows via overseas foreign currency borrowing (OFCB) and external commercial borrowing (ECB) remain in place until 31 December." "The early termination likely reflects a combination of diminishing benefits and rising liquidity and balance-sheet costs. The FCNR(B) inflows generated substantial rupee liquidity, part of which flowed into government bonds and helped compress yields, particularly at the shorter end and belly of the curve. The early closure therefore removes a source of incremental liquidity and bond demand." "The decision therefore looks more like a cost-benefit recalibration than a signal that the RBI has become outright bullish on INR." "In FX, USD/INR rose 0.2% to 95.61 yesterday following RBI’s surprise decision to end the FCNR(B) facility early. The pair has remained broadly range-bound between 94.70-96.70 since early July, with RBI intervention helping suppress volatility." "Near-term INR headwinds could come from higher precious metal imports,

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Banks

August 18, 2026

Euro: Upside bias needs confirmation above 1.1615 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that EUR/USD briefly broke above major resistance at 1.1610 to 1.1614 before fading, leaving the Euro in a near-term consolidation between 1.1560 and 1.1600. The 1–3 week outlook remains positive, but the pair must break and hold above 1.1615 to open 1.1655, with strong support anchored at 1.1525. Euro consolidates after failed breakout "24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose sharply to a high of 1.1585 last Friday. Yesterday, we indicated that “the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but as long as 1.1545 (minor support is at 1.1555) is not breached, EUR could rise to 1.1590.” We added, “based on the prevailing momentum, a sustained rise above this level appears unlikely, and the major resistance at 1.1610 is unlikely to come under threat.” While EUR held above 1.1545 (low was 1.1558), it broke above 1.1610, reaching a high of 1.1614. However, EUR was unable to hold on to its gains, as it retreated to close little changed at 1.1579 (+0.09%). EUR appears to have entered a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1560 and 1.1600." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our EUR view from neutral to positive yesterday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1570). We highlighted the following: “The price action suggests that EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias from here. Currently, it is unclear whether EUR has sufficient momentum to reach the major resistance at 1.1610. On the downside, a break below 1.1525 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR is likely to continue range-trading.” We did not expect EUR to rise sharply and briefly to 1.1614. While the upside bias remains intact, given that there is no significant increase in upward momentum, EUR must break and hold above 1.1615 before a move to 1.1655 can be expected. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ remains unchanged at 1.1525."

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Chart of The Day – The End of The Idyll in Japan? JP225 Loses Over 2%.

After a wave of strong gains in the first half of August, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index recorded a sharp drop of over 2% today. The index contract is currently at 67400, deepening its declines along with falling contracts on US indices. If the current downward momentum continues at the end of the Asian session, it could be the deepest one-day correction since late July. Investor optimism hit a wall, and risk aversion prevailed in markets across the Asia-Pacific region. Behind such a sharp deterioration in sentiment in Japan is a combination of several key factors: from escalating geopolitical tensions, through rising bond yields, to yesterday's disappointing economic data. JP225 could potentially be breaking out of its current short-term uptrend. Source: xStation5 Reasons for the decline in Japanese stock prices 1. Jump in oil prices and the specter of escalation in the Middle East Geopolitics became the trigger for the sell-off. US President Donald Trump categorically ruled out extending the temporary ceasefire with Iran, and his harsh rhetoric (including threats against Oman) raised concerns about the security of commodity supplies. The market reaction was immediate: the price of Brent oil broke the level of 91 USD per barrel, and American WTI rose above 84 USD. For Japan, an economy almost entirely dependent on energy imports, this is terrible news. A sharp rise in oil prices means higher costs for companies and hits margins, which naturally prompts investors to sell stocks on the Tokyo floor. 2. Japanese bond yields at levels from 1996 Another massive burden on the stock market is the debt market. Yields on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) shot up to around 2.95%, the highest reading since September 1996. Rising interest rates on safe government bonds make them an increasingly interesting alternative to the risky stock market. In an environment of rising yields, valuations of tech firms, from which capital is flowing toward "safe havens," particularly suffer. 3. A weak yen compounds the pain (rising USDJPY) In the currency market, we are observing a weakening of the Japanese currency. The USDJPY exchange rate is rising and approaching the 159.7 level. Usually, a weak yen was welcomed on the Tokyo stock exchange with enthusiasm because it supported the competitiveness of Japanese export giants. However, in the current situation, this phenomenon is a double-edged sword. With the Brent oil price exceeding 91 USD, the depreciating yen drastically raises the costs of imported energy, directly hitting the domestic economy and consumers' wallets. 4. Weak GDP and waiting for Friday's inflation Local macroeconomic fundamentals also do not provide reasons for optimism. Yesterday's data on Japan's GDP turned out to be rather weak (annualized growth for Q2 at 1.1% vs. expected 2.1% and previous 1.9%), which dampened the enthusiasm for buying stocks and raised concerns about the country's economic growth pace. Moreover, investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude before Friday's key inflation reading in Japan. This data could decide the next steps in the central bank's monetary policy, especially in the context of the aforementioned "imported inflation" and escaping yields. Although an interest rate hike itself is generally negative for the stock market, raising the cost of money now could lead to the end of the yen's weakness. 5. What to expect next? Today's plunge on the Nikkei 225 is a classic example of a flight from risk in the face of accumulating problems. After a successful first half of August, the market was susceptible to a correction, and the trigger turned out to be geopolitics and oil, which exposed the weaknesses of the Japanese economy: dependence on raw material imports and pressure related to the most expensive financing cost (JGB yields) in nearly three decades. Increased volatility may persist on the Tokyo stock exchange until Friday's inflation data. The Nikkei 225 contract is the worst-performing index-based instrument today. Although technically the index still looks positive in the medium term, it simultaneously remains quite heavily overbought relative to the 2 and 5-year averages. The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone. Source: XTB

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Macro Calendar – US housing market in the spotlight of investors

The start of Tuesday's session is marked by rising oil prices, a still weaker dollar, and waiting for further data from the United States. Today's calendar is not very extensive but contains several important publications from the USA regarding the housing market and international trade prices. After the last series of weaker data, today's reports on the housing market will show whether the situation has also deteriorated in this market, taking into account elevated inflation and concerns about hikes. Key publications from the Asian session 🌏 Westpac consumer confidence index for Australia was 6.0%, which means a strong rebound compared to the previous period. Representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a hawkish rhetoric, giving short-term support to the local currency before the opening of European markets. Asian markets felt increased supply pressure as a delayed reaction to Monday's disappointing data on Japan's GDP growth dynamics. Macroeconomic calendar 📊 08:00 UK - Unemployment rate. Consensus: 4.8%. Previous reading: 4.9%. 11:00 Germany - ZEW index for August. Consensus: 30; Previous reading: 26.3 14:30 USA - Building permits. Consensus: 1.37M. Previous reading: 1.37M. 14:30 USA - Housing starts. Consensus: 1.35M. Previous reading: 1.42M. 14:30 USA - Import price index. Consensus: 0.1%. Previous reading: 0.3%. 15:00 USA - Pending home sales index. Consensus: 0.1%. Previous reading: -5.4%. Key financial results of companies from Wall Street and Europe 💼: The Home Depot (pre-market) Amer Sports (pre-market) Keysight Technologies (post-market) Toll Brothers (post-market) Markets worth paying attention to today 📈: Australian Dollar (AUDUSD). The improvement in consumer confidence in Australia provides support for the currency, but a potential strengthening of the US dollar in the afternoon may create significant supply pressure on this pair. It is worth paying attention to mixed global signals: rising copper prices and weakness in China. US Dollar Index (DXY). Upcoming readings from the housing sector will be thoroughly analyzed in terms of their potential impact on future Federal Reserve decisions, which should generate local volatility impulses. The economic symposium in Jackson Hole is also approaching. Construction and development sector. The cumulative publication of quarterly results of industry giants, such as The Home Depot or Toll Brothers, combined with hard macro data on building permits, may lead to very strong moves in the stocks of these companies after the bell in New York.

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Forex Trading

August 18, 2026

EUR/USD Reverses Its Technical Trend

Is this the end of the U.S. dollar's relative strength❓ On Monday, the EUR/USD exchange rate broke through an important technical barrier marked by the 200-day exponential moving average, also briefly breaching the 1.16 zone and reaching levels not seen for almost two months. Maintaining this momentum and closing the intraday candle above this level could seal a reversal of the long-term trend towards a more bullish one. The sell-off in the US currency is continuing despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Although the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is keeping Brent crude prices around $89 a barrel, the dollar – traditionally regarded as a safe haven and supported by the US’s position as a net exporter of crude – is failing to gain ground. Weak data are causing a reassessment of expectations regarding the Fed The current weakness of the US currency is primarily due to disappointing macroeconomic data. This has prompted the markets to significantly revise their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future moves. Market pricing of the interest rate path has cooled dramatically compared with the situation four weeks ago. According to the latest data, investors are no longer pricing in a rate rise at either the September or October meetings. The probability of a rate rise at the final meeting in December has fallen to around 85 per cent. Source: XTB The key factor tempering the Fed’s ambitions is the state of the economy. The US labour market has entered a ‘low fire-low hire’ phase, as indicated by weaker NFP figures, even though the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims continue to hover around multi-year lows. A marked slowdown is evident in consumption – Friday’s figures revealed the first fall in retail sales in nine months (-0.6 per cent m/m), which concerned analysts all the more as the negative result persisted even after excluding sales of cars and fuel. Meanwhile, last week’s CPI (in line with expectations) and PPI (lower than forecast) inflation figures allayed market fears of a resurgence of sharp price pressures. Markets currently assess the likelihood of so-called second-round inflationary effects as low, which buys the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) time to assess the impact of the energy shock on the economy. Politics casts a shadow over the central bank’s independence The dollar’s depreciation is also accompanied by growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s own independence. Speculation has intensified following reports of renewed attempts by the former president to dismiss one of the FOMC’s decision-makers, Lisa Cook. Political pressure is causing the bond yield curve to steepen. Yields on short-term bonds are falling in line with dovish expectations, whilst yields on long-term, 30-year bonds remain close to 25-year highs. In the coming days, market attention will focus on Friday’s release of the US PMI figures. However, the key event of the month for the dollar and future interest rate expectations remains the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, scheduled for 27–29 August, during which markets will be looking for the Fed to make a clear statement on the weakening economic outlook. On Monday, EURUSD broke through an important technical barrier marked by the 200-day exponential moving average, also breaching the 1.16 zone (although some of the upward momentum was subsequently reversed) and reaching levels not seen for almost two months. The RSI remains elevated on a 14-day average, but has yet to breach the textbook 70-point level, which is sometimes regarded by parts of the market as a potential overbought zone. Source: xStation

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Cryptocurrencies

August 18, 2026

Technical Analysis: Ethereum

Ethereum prices, much like Bitcoin, have been consolidating for some time now. Since mid-July, the price has been trading within a very narrow range between the 100-period exponential moving average and the support level at $1,845. It appears that only a breakout from this consolidation could lead to a more significant trend movement. Should the price break through the upper boundary of the consolidation zone and simultaneously breach the moving average, the upward move could reach as high as $2,420, where the upper boundary of the broad 1:1 pattern marked in yellow is located. Conversely, a return below the lower boundary of the consolidation, i.e. the $1,845 level, could lead to a marked acceleration of the sell-off, with a move towards $1,450 then becoming the base-case scenario. Ethereum – D1 timeframe. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 18, 2026

SpaceX Isn’t Giving Up – What Could Stop the buying pressure of Musk’s “Stellar” Company?

SpaceX shares (SPCX.US) continued their upward trend on Monday, retesting the recent local highs of 12 August. A sharp rebound from the $106 level and growing institutional involvement have enabled the market to successfully absorb the recent first tranche of share releases; however, the coming months may pose a more serious test for the company’s elevated valuations. The company’s share price chart confirms strong upward momentum following the summer correction. The company’s shares are once again approaching a key resistance level of around USD 147. The return to steady gains is largely driven by reports of a significant inflow of capital from the market’s largest players. Source: xStation According to the latest regulatory filings, Harvard Management has taken a stake in SpaceX worth US$2.2 billion (approximately 12.94 million shares), which currently accounts for more than half of its disclosed US equity portfolio. Alongside Harvard, other institutional investors have also accumulated significant stakes, including Intesa Sanpaolo (approximately $966 million) and the University of California (approximately $1 billion). The current share price remains comfortably above the IPO price ($135), valuing the entire company at around $1.85 trillion. The schedule for the expiry of lock-up periods for early shareholders remains a key factor determining the share price’s performance in the coming quarters. The market has already seen the first large tranche of shares released (up to 911.5 million). Contrary to the fears of some market participants, this event did not trigger supply pressure. On the contrary, it provided the backdrop for a dynamic rebound from support levels around US$106, recorded just before the expiry of the lock-up period. Source: Bloomberg Financial Lp However, analysts are raising questions about the market’s reaction to subsequent tranches. The table above sets out the schedule for upcoming releases, the largest of which – potentially involving up to 1.3 billion shares – will take place following the publication of the second financial report (around October).

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Markets

August 18, 2026

XAG/USD falls to near $65.50 amid US-Iran peace uncertainty

Silver weakens as Trump’s refusal to renew the Iran deal and naval blockades elevate global geopolitical tensions. Weak US payrolls and modest inflation trim expectations for a Fed interest rate hike. CME FedWatch shows Fed rate hike expectations falling to 35% for the September meeting, down from 47% last month. Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after two days of gains, trading around $65.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver prices fall as traders remain wary of potential inflation risks as prospects for a new diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran dimmed following statements from both sides. US President Donald Trump indicated he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal, citing the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports as evidence of Washington's leverage and reiterating his proposal to declare the critical waterway as US territory under total American control. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei asserted that an agreement remains elusive due to security complexities and the "obstructionist behavior of destructive elements," insisting that the US must first lift its blockade. However, Silver prices could rebound amid fading expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). A recent, unexpected decline in July US Nonfarm Payrolls, combined with last week's modest consumer price inflation data, has significantly reduced market anticipation of a monetary tightening next month. Consequently, expectations for a Fed rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting have dropped to 35%, down from 47% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors are now looking ahead to the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. According to strategists at TD Securities, a confluence of macro factors has driven a notable repositioning in precious metals. They highlight that “the combination of modest inflation, a lackluster U.S. employment environment, little market concern that oil will have another major rally, along with prices moving convincingly into a higher trading range prompted money managers to aggressively increase their long gold exposure.” This backdrop, in their view, has encouraged investors to lean more heavily into Gold as prices establish themselves in a stronger trading band. Technical Analysis: In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $65.60, holding a bullish near-term bias as price remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one reinforces a constructive trend tone, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.51 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the metal holds above these dynamic supports. The Fed Sentiment Index cooling toward 134.61 hints at a less aggressive policy backdrop for Silver. On the downside, immediate support is located at the nine-day EMA at $64.27, followed by the 50-day EMA at $63.33, with a more distant structural floor at the horizontal line near $55.63. On the topside, the next notable barrier emerges at the horizontal resistance around $90.03, with the current configuration hinting that dips toward the clustered moving averages may attract buyers while that upper cap remains untested.

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Forex Trading

August 18, 2026

United States Dollar Index holds ground on safe-haven demand

The US Dollar Index steadies as Trump’s refusal to renew the Iran deal and naval blockades elevate global geopolitical tensions. Weak payrolls and modest inflation data reduce Fed rate hike bets. CME FedWatch shows Fed rate hike expectations falling to 35% for the September meeting, down from 47% last month. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is inching higher after three days of losses and trading around 99.60 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The DXY receives minor support from safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to the geopolitical tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. US President Donald Trump announced he has no interest in renewing the expiring agreement with Iran, citing the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports as evidence of Washington's leverage and reiterating his idea of declaring the critical waterway as US territory under total American control. Moreover, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei asserted that an agreement remains elusive due to security complexities and the "obstructionist behavior of destructive elements," demanding that the US first lift its blockade. The Greenback may face challenges as hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook fades. A recent, unexpected decline in July US Nonfarm Payrolls, combined with last week's modest consumer price inflation data, has significantly reduced market anticipation of an interest rate increase next month. Consequently, expectations for a Fed rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting have dropped to 35%, down from 47% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Strategists at Scotiabank report that the "USD got roughed up a bit last week and Dollar trends continue to soften broadly on Monday," pushing the DXY "just below the base of the August consolidation range and to the lowest point since early June." They note that "soft US data reports are dampening Fed tightening expectations" and argue that "the 25bps of tightening still priced in by year-end is too much from our perspective." At the same time, Scotiabank highlights "clear signs of market angst about US fiscal dynamics," a concern they say is "reflected in the steepening US yield curve." Technical Analysis: United States Dollar Index Spot trades around 99.60, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds beneath both the nine-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 99.79 and the 50-period EMA at 100.21. The configuration of short- and medium-term EMAs above spot suggests the index remains capped, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.51 stays below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure despite a lack of outright oversold readings.

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Markets

August 18, 2026

XAU/USD drifts lower as oil-driven inflation risks and US-Iran tensions bolster USD

Gold struggles to capitalize on a two-day uptrend amid the emergence of some USD buying. Rising oil prices keep inflation risks and Fed rate hike bets on the table, underpinning the buck. The US-Iran standoff further benefits the USD’s safe-haven status and weighs on the commodity. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick on Tuesday, stalling a two-day move higher from the $4,300 neighborhood. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the overnight bounce from a two-month trough as inflation risks stemming from higher crude oil prices underpin prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and further underpins the safe-haven Greenback, which, in turn, is seen exerting pressure on the precious metal. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump said that Iran should surrender to end a nearly six-month-long war. Trump added that the US is not seeking an extension of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which expired on Monday. Furthermore, Trump repeated his idea of declaring the critical Strait of Hormuz as a US territory and warned that he would target Oman if it hindered actions to reopen the strategic waterway. This comes as the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen escalated their campaign against Saudi Arabia. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group used several ballistic missiles to target a Saudi military landing ship and four accompanying patrol boats off the coast of Mokha. This could further disrupt commercial shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait – one of the world's most important trade routes – and fuel energy supply concerns, lifting crude oil prices to a two-week high. Investors remain worried that higher energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures, which, along with hawkish Fed expectations, remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. According to TD Securities, the Fed is likely to "remain on hold over our forecast horizon," with the policy stance anchored by the view that "inflation should remain high for the rest of the year" and that "the labor market has stabilized, allowing the FOMC to shift focus to its inflation mandate." The bank adds that, "if the Fed were to move this year, we believe that move is more likely to be a hike than a cut," noting that under "a new management that espouses a blurrier reaction function, data dependence will likely gain prominence for determining the path ahead for monetary policy." This offsets last week's soft US inflation and Retail Sales data, which forced investors to scale back their bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning around a 64% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at the September 2026 meeting. Investors, however, are still pricing in a greater possibility that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The outlook helps revive demand for the Greenback and prompts some intraday selling around the non-yielding Gold, though the downside seems limited. Traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciation. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the precious metal continues its struggle to find acceptance above the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline. Momentum indicators, however, stay constructive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.47 holds in bullish territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, hinting that selling pressure is corrective rather than impulsive. However, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond last week's swing high, around $4,450, before positioning for further gains toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,508. On the downside, first support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,302.33, with further demand expected at the 23.6% level at $4,164.44 and then around the structural floor anchored near $3,941.54, where buyers would likely attempt to arrest a deeper correction.

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Energies

August 18, 2026

WTI Price Bulls retain near two-week top, above $84.00 and 38.2% Fibo.

WTI is seen consolidating its recent move higher to a two-week top, set earlier this Tuesday. Supply concerns stemming from the  US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz lend support. The bullish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent upward trajectory. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – enters a bullish consolidation phase after hitting an over two-week high during the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades around the $84.20 region. Uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keep the geopolitical risk premium in play and continue to act as a tailwind for the black liquid. From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a near-term bullish bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide. Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive and back the case for a further near-term appreciating move. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 56, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is above zero and edging higher. Bullish pressure, however, still needs to clear a key structural barrier near the $86.65-$86.70 confluence – comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward-sloping trend line. The 50.0% Fibo. level reinforces the overhead hurdle at $87.23, which, if cleared, should pave the way for an extension of the upward trajectory towards the stronger resistance near the 61.8% Fibo. level, at $91.93. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $82.53, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $76.72 if sellers regain control. Some follow-through selling would expose the monthly swing low, around mid-$73.00s, before WTI eventually drops to test sub-$70.00 levels. WTI daily chart

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Cryptocurrencies

August 18, 2026

Ripple and Stellar outlook – Remain under bearish pressure as corrective declines cap upside

XRP remains under pressure, gravitating below the $1 support on Tuesday. XLM extends its corrective decline, holding below $0.157 and all major EMAs, signaling continued weakness. Mixed derivatives and on-chain metrics with a slight bearish tilt show cautious sentiment and limited upside potential for both tokens. Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) remain under pressure as broader market uncertainty and weak technical momentum weigh on both altcoins. XRP is hovering below the key $1 mark on Tuesday while XLM continues its corrective decline below $0.157. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives and on-chain signals indicate cautious sentiment, leaving both cryptocurrencies vulnerable to further downside. Mixed derivatives cap recovery Derivatives data shows mixed sentiment with a mild bearish tilt among traders. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for XRP and XLM reads 0.80 and 0.87, respectively, on Tuesday, nearing their lowest levels in a month.  A ratio below one indicates bearish sentiment, as traders bet asset prices will fall. XRP long-to-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass XLM long-to-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass In addition, the XRP funding rate flipped positive on Monday and read 0.0042% on Tuesday, indicating that longs are paying shorts and reflecting a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the XLM rate flipped negative, reading -0.0054% on Tuesday. This negative rate indicates that short traders are paying longs and reflects a bearish bias. XRP funding rate chart. Source: Coinglass XLM funding rate chart. Source: Coinglass Cautious optimism among traders CryptoQuant’s summary data shows cautious optimism. XRP’s futures markets show large whale orders, while other metrics remain neutral, supporting a potential recovery. However, XLM shows selling-side dominance in both markets, and large whale orders, hinting at cautious sentiment among traders. XRP summary chart. Source: CryptoQuant XLM summary chart. Source: CryptoQuant XRP technical outlook: Slips below key support XRP price trades at $0.99 on Tuesday, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.07, the 100-day EMA at $1.15 and the 200-day EMA at $1.34. XRP also remains under the broken descending trendline reference at $1.00 and the horizontal barrier at $1.00, underscoring persistent overhead pressure.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 35 stays in weak territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is slightly negative, hinting at lingering downside bias rather than a decisive reversal. On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the psychological $1.00 mark, followed closely by the former trendline break level at $1.00. Above this area, the 50-day EMA at $1.07 is the next hurdle, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.15 and the horizontal barrier at $1.30, with the 200-day EMA at $1.34 and a higher horizontal line at $1.90 marking more distant caps.  With no clear support levels defined below the current price in the current dataset, any further slide would leave XRP vulnerable to downside price discovery until fresh demand emerges.  XRP/USDT daily chart XLM technical outlook: Extends correction below key EMAs XLM price trades at $0.156 on Tuesday, extending its corrective phase below all major EMAs, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. The 50-day EMA at $0.173, the 100-day EMA at $0.178 and the 200-day EMA at $0.190 all sit overhead as trend-defining resistance, reinforcing a capped tone after the recent slide. The RSI near 31 hovers close to oversold territory, while the MACD indicator turns marginally positive around the zero line, hinting at fading downside momentum but not yet signaling a clear recovery as long as price holds beneath these clustered averages and Fibonacci retracements. On the topside, initial resistance aligns around the $0.173 area, where the 50-day EMA converges with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the prior horizontal barrier at $0.177 and the 100-day EMA at $0.178. Higher up, the 200-day EMA at $0.190 precedes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.200, with subsequent Fibonacci levels at $0.218, $0.237 and $0.260 capping any medium-term recovery, ahead of the cycle high near $0.298. On the downside, immediate focus rests on the support band between the horizontal floor at $0.142 and the structural low around $0.139; a decisive break under this zone would likely open the door to a deeper bearish extension despite the already stretched momentum backdrop. XLM/USDT daily chart

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Copper Falls on Profit-Taking

Copper futures fell to around $6.55 per pound on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low as investors locked in profits after the metal surged to record highs earlier this month. The broader metals market also remained under pressure from rising oil prices, which kept inflationary risks and interest rate concerns in focus. The moves came as prospects for a new agreement between the US and Iran dimmed after President Donald Trump said he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal. Meanwhile, signs of tightening global copper supply continued to provide a floor for prices, as the metal keeps flowing to the US and China while becoming increasingly scarce elsewhere. Top producer Chile also expects copper production to fall 2.6% this year amid persistent setbacks at mines and development projects.

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Energies

August 18, 2026

Oil Extends Gains as Peace Prospects Dim

Crude oil climbed above $85 per barrel on Tuesday, rising for a third consecutive session as prospects for a new agreement between the US and Iran weakened after President Donald Trump said he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal. The memorandum of understanding signed in June, which was intended to give both sides 60 days to negotiate a longer-term peace agreement, officially expired on Monday. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman continue to negotiate an arrangement for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the US is not involved in the talks. Washington is unlikely to back any deal that fails to ensure unrestricted passage through the strategically vital shipping route. At the same time, Middle Eastern producers appear to be becoming increasingly adept at covertly moving oil through Hormuz to global buyers while also supplying cargoes from outside the key chokepoint.

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Energies

August 18, 2026

Brent Extends Gains as Peace Prospects Dim

Brent crude climbed above $91 per barrel on Tuesday, rising for a third consecutive session as prospects for a new agreement between the US and Iran weakened after President Donald Trump said he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal. The memorandum of understanding signed in June, which was intended to give both sides 60 days to negotiate a longer-term peace agreement, officially expired on Monday. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman continue to negotiate an arrangement for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the US is not involved in the talks. Washington is unlikely to back any deal that fails to ensure unrestricted passage through the strategically vital shipping route. At the same time, Middle Eastern producers appear to be becoming increasingly adept at covertly moving oil through Hormuz to global buyers while also supplying cargoes from outside the key chokepoint.

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Energies

August 18, 2026

Heating Oil Hits Over 4-Month High

US heating oil futures rose to around $4.45 per gallon on Tuesday, reaching their highest level since early April, as fading hopes for a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict heightened expectations of prolonged supply disruptions from the region. President Donald Trump said he was not interested in extending an agreement with Tehran that technically expired on Monday, while disagreements over the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate negotiations. Iran is holding separate talks with Oman on managing the waterway, with Trump threatening to bomb Oman if it interferes with a US blockade. Still, continued crude shipments through the Persian Gulf waterway have eased some supply concerns. Elsewhere, frequent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted fuel supplies, prompting gasoline rationing in at least two regions and restrictions on refined-product exports. Russia has since extended its existing diesel export ban until January 2027.

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Soybeans Hit 3-Week High

Soybean futures rose above $12 per bushel, hitting a three-week high as stronger soybean crushing activity and higher crude oil prices supported the market. The National Oilseed Processors Association data showed members crushed 216.647 million bushels of US soybeans in July, up 1.1% from June and 10.7% from a year earlier. However, the daily crush rate eased to 6.989 million bushels from 7.145 million a month earlier. Traders now await the Pro Farmer field tour for fresh indications on US soybean yields after the USDA lowered its official yield forecasts last week. Heavy Midwest rainfall has also raised concerns over excess moisture and crop conditions. Elsewhere, Chinese demand continued to provide support, with traders reporting that China had already purchased around 7 million metric tons of US soybeans. Meanwhile, disruptions to Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea, including reduced loadings at Russian ports, added broader support to agricultural markets.

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Corn Holds Rally Near 3-Month Peak

Corn futures held their recent rally to above $4.6 per bushel, near a thirteen-week high as traders weighed fresh crop assessments from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and robust export demand. Early field observations pointed to drought damage in South Dakota and uneven crop maturity in Ohio, raising concerns that actual yields could fall short of USDA’s latest estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre. USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 76% of the US corn crop had reached the dough stage by August 16, with 29% dented and 4% mature, while the share rated good-to-excellent fell to 60% from 61% a week earlier. Meanwhile, weekly US corn export inspections jumped 81.7% year-on-year to 1.91 million tonnes, with Mexico, Japan and Colombia among the top destinations. Cumulative shipments reached 80.95 million tonnes, or 26.1% above the same period last year, underscoring firm overseas demand. Brazil’s second-crop harvest was also only 85% complete, below the 94% average pace, adding further support.

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Energies

August 18, 2026

European Gas Extends Gain

European natural gas prices extended gains, rising above €62 per MWh on Tuesday, amid fading hopes for a Middle East peace deal that could facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said he was in no rush to resolve the conflict and warned of military action against Oman if it obstructed US efforts to reach an agreement with Iran. Also, talks between Iranian and Omani officials over a provisional framework to manage shipping through the strait have yet to yield any concrete results. The continued maritime blockade has delayed LNG shipments from Qatar, limiting supplies available to Europe. At the same time, intense heatwaves across parts of Europe have boosted gas-fired power demand for air conditioning. These factors are slowing the pace of inventory replenishment, leaving European storage levels under greater pressure ahead of the winter heating season.

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Markets

August 18, 2026

Palm Oil Hits Over 4-Month High Above MYR 4,800

Malaysian palm oil futures extended recent gains, hovering above MYR 4,800 per tonne and reaching their highest level since early April. Firmer edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago markets supported sentiment, while higher crude oil prices provided an additional boost as prospects for a deal to end the Middle East war appeared increasingly distant. However, a stronger ringgit limited further gains. Elevated inventories also remained a headwind, with Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rising to a five-month high in July as production outpaced exports. In top consumer India, record soyoil imports expected in August could weigh on palm oil demand, as competitive prices encourage refiners to favor the cheaper alternative ahead of festive demand. Export signals were mixed, with Intertek Testing Services estimating Malaysian palm oil product shipments fell 7.9% in August 1–15 from a month earlier, while AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported a 3.2% increase.

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Cocoa Gains 1% as Prices Test $6,000 — What Is Fund Positioning Telling Us?

Key takeaways Cocoa futures are up around 1–2% as West African supply risks, weaker crop expectations, lower ICE inventories and a softer U.S. dollar support prices. Managed Money remains net short and added more bearish exposure, with the net position at -6,667 contracts as of August 11. Commercials are also net short but reduced part of their short hedges, while falling open interest points to lower overall market participation rather than aggressive new positioning. Cocoa futures ( COCOA ) on ICE are volatile today, trading around 1–2% higher near $5,850, as the market once again focuses on supply risks in West Africa. The main concerns relate to the outlook for the 2026/27 crop in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where irregular rainfall, insufficient sunshine, and El Niño-related risks are worsening pod development conditions. The move higher is also supported by lower production forecasts and reduced estimates for the global supply surplus. Another factor is the EU’s anti-deforestation regulation, which could complicate exports of some cocoa to Europe due to geolocation and traceability requirements. The market is also watching a gradual decline in ICE-monitored inventories and a weaker U.S. dollar, which improves the purchasing power of foreign market participants. On the other hand, gains are being limited by still-high port arrivals and relatively good physical availability of cocoa. Ghana reported that production in the 2025/26 season reached 750,000 tonnes, up 25.6% year over year. Demand remains another risk, as some chocolate manufacturers are reducing cocoa usage or reformulating products after the period of very high prices. To take a deeper look at the cocoa market, it is worth examining the latest Commitment of Traders report. What does COT positioning show in the cocoa market? The latest COT report shows that Managed Money funds remain net short cocoa and have increased their bearish exposure further. As of August 11, they held 22,955 long contracts versus 29,622 short contracts, resulting in a net position of -6,667 contracts. Over the week, short positions increased by 2,147 contracts, while longs rose by only 150, meaning speculative positioning deteriorated by almost 2,000 contracts on a net basis. A different picture emerges from the Producer/Merchant/Processor/User category, which represents commercial participants directly involved in the physical cocoa market. Commercials held 53,235 long contracts and 73,711 short contracts, giving a net position of around -20,476 contracts, although their short bias narrowed slightly over the latest week. Short positions fell by 3,717 contracts, while longs decreased by 3,285, making the group’s net position slightly less negative. Managed Money (large speculators) increased its net short bias, indicating continued caution among funds toward the cocoa price outlook. Commercials (producers and other physical-market participants using futures mainly for hedging) remain clearly net short, but have partially reduced their short-side hedges. Open interest fell by 12,507 contracts, suggesting a broader reduction in market participation rather than aggressive new position building. Taken together, the two groups provide a mildly bearish speculative signal, but not an extreme one: funds are adding shorts, while commercial participants are not increasing their net short exposure. In practice, the most important signal at the moment is the behavior of Managed Money — speculative funds are leaning more clearly to the downside. Commercial positioning should not be interpreted as a straightforward bearish signal, because producers and processors primarily use futures to hedge their exposure to physical cocoa, and their natural position is often net short. Source: CFTC COCOA (D1 interval) Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

August 17, 2026

Trade of The Day – USD/CAD

Facts USDCAD pulled back after Canada’s July CPI inflation data. Gasoline prices in Canada rose by 25.7% year over year, compared with 20.5% in June. CPI inflation increased by 3.0% versus a 2.9% forecast and 2.8% previously, while the monthly rate came in at 0.5% versus a 0.4% consensus. The unemployment rate stood at 6.4%, while employment increased by 75.1 thousand. Prices of travel tours rose by 15.2% year over year, while airfares increased by 12% year over year. The preliminary GDP estimate points to annualized growth of 3.4% in Q2. Recommendation Short position on USDCAD at the market price Take Profit: 1.3582 Stop Loss: 1.3938 Opinion Against the backdrop of recent macroeconomic data, the balance of risks for USDCAD may gradually be shifting to the downside. U.S. CPI inflation came in line with expectations and the latest PPI report showed weaker price pressures, while Canada’s July CPI accelerated to 3.0% year over year and exceeded the consensus. Importantly, core inflation measures also came in above forecasts, which may limit the Bank of Canada’s room to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy. The pressure was not limited to fuel prices. CPI Core Trim rose to 1.9%, Core Median to 2.0%, and inflation excluding food and energy to 1.9% year over year. All three measures came in above consensus. At the same time, U.S. data did not provide a comparable inflationary impulse: CPI was in line with expectations, while PPI weakened. This divergence may support the CAD if it begins to translate into relatively more hawkish expectations for the Bank of Canada compared with the Fed. The Canadian economy is also not currently sending unambiguous signals that would require rapid monetary easing: employment rose by 75.1 thousand, while the preliminary estimate points to annualized GDP growth of 3.4% in Q2. The market is pricing in the first possible BoC rate hike only in January, so a further series of stronger inflation readings could leave room for a shift in interest-rate expectations and additional support for the CAD. From a USDCAD perspective, this creates an argument for a possible further pullback, as the relative inflation path is beginning to look more favorable for the Canadian dollar. The key point is not the 3.0% CPI reading itself, as part of the increase came from fuel, transport and World Cup-related factors, but rather the fact that several core measures also exceeded expectations. The Canadian dollar remains sensitive to oil prices, global risk sentiment and the condition of the U.S. economy, while a single CPI report does not determine a change in BoC policy. However, if subsequent data confirm more persistent inflation in Canada alongside further easing of price pressures in the U.S., relative expectations for the BoC and the Fed could increasingly favor the CAD, raising the risk of a further decline in USDCAD. Canada’s annual consumer inflation rate accelerated to 3.0% in July, exceeding market expectations of 2.9%. The renewed increase, following the slowdown to 2.8% in June, was driven primarily by sharp increases in fuel prices as well as higher travel and transport costs, supported by stronger activity around the football World Cup. Although inflation remains elevated, this does not automatically imply a return to hawkish expectations for rate hikes, so we recommend taking a short position in the pair with a relatively tight stop-loss level defined by the 200-period exponential moving average, EMA200, shown by the red line, and recent price reactions around 1.393, with a target level at 1.3582. USDCAD chart (D1 interval) Source: xStation5 Supporting graphics Source: XTB Research

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention risk near 160 highlighted – DBS

Philip Wee of DBS Group Research notes that markets still focus on Japan’s struggle to support the Japanese Yen, while underplaying broader USD implications. He stresses that Washington’s stance gives Tokyo political cover to keep intervention on the table and warns that further operations in USD/JPY cannot be ruled out around or above the pivotal 160 level. Tokyo retains cover for renewed action "Markets should not misread US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s request to the Fed to expand the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility from the current limit of $60 billion per counterparty borrowing limit for a JPY-negative development." "Washington recognised Tokyo’s increasingly determined and coordinated efforts to defend the JPY, with unwanted spillovers into the US bond market." "By publicly keeping the door open to another coordinated operation, Bessent has given Tokyo the political cover to make it costly for JPY bears to hold their short JPY positions." "Despite USD/JPY’s recovery from its 155 low on August 3 to 159 last week, the JPY is still 2.5% stronger from its pre-intervention levels." "Markets cannot rule out more interventions in USD/JPY around or above the pivotal 160 level."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Japan: BoJ path questioned on weak demand – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists Reo Sakida and Jin Kenzaki say Japan’s 2Q GDP data were weaker than expected, with consumption and capex both disappointing. A higher GDP deflator may support near-term BoJ hike expectations, but persistent weakness in private demand could challenge a faster and higher rate path and worsen the debt/GDP ratio through front‑loaded fiscal spending relative to private investment. Weak demand complicates BoJ hiking outlook "Headline growth missed consensus, with consumption and capex—the two drivers we had expected to support growth—both disappointing." "The higher GDP deflator should support near-term BoJ hike expectations, but if weakness in consumption and capex continues, it would raise concerns over a faster and higher hiking path." "Continued services weakness would flash a yellow light for the BoJ." "One implication for Takaichi’s investment-focused policy is that fiscal spending could come through well before private investment and potential growth respond, temporarily worsening the debt/GDP ratio—a negative for JGBs." "This is an important component to watch, as sustained weakness in services consumption would raise a warning flag for the BoJ’s faster and higher rate-hike path."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI move tightens liquidity – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that India’s bonds sold off after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly advanced closure of its special Dollar deposit window to end-August. The change reduces anticipated Indian Rupee (INR) liquidity, lifts 5-year and 10-year yields, and may slow reserve accumulation and Rupee appreciation as authorities grow wary of future liabilities and forward-premium costs. Early window closure hits bonds "India’s bond market sold off after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly brought forward the closure of its special dollar deposit window for overseas residents, reducing the amount of rupee liquidity investors had expected to enter the system." "The facility, which has already attracted more than $50bn, will now close at the end of August rather than a month later. 5y yields rose as much as 9bp to 6.44%, while the 10y yield climbed 4bp to 6.80%." "The earlier closure could also slow further reserve accumulation and limit rupee appreciation after reserves rose above $700bn." "The move suggests the RBI is becoming more sensitive to the future liability and forward-premium costs associated with sustaining the scheme."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

United States: Sideways growth and sticky inflation – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2025 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran conflict create stagflationary risks, keeping the Fed on hold. They see GDP growth slightly below trend in 2026, with 2.1% Q4/Q4, unemployment near 4.3%, and only gradual disinflation resuming in 2027. Sideways growth with stagflationary risks "We expect output growth to move sideways this year, reflecting the lingering impact of the oil shock. The Iran conflict presents stagflationary risks, which we expect will keep the Fed on hold for the entire year. AI and high-income consumers have supported underlying growth." "GDP growth will likely remain slightly below trend in 2026, ending with 2.1% Q4/Q4. Stable growth should result in a still-low unemployment rate of 4.3% by Q4 2026. The labor market has signaled stabilization, and while we expect that to continue, rising input costs from the oil shock create further uncertainty that could weigh on hiring." "We assign 25% odds to a US recession over the next year." "With supply chains stressed, we do not see substantial disinflation as feasible this year. We expect core CPI inflation to be 2.6% y/y in Q4 2026, ending the year higher than it started. The numbers are similarly high in core PCE terms (see table below)." "Most of the impact of higher oil prices will filter into headline inflation. We look for gradual disinflation to resume in 2027."

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Forex Trading

August 17, 2026

Canadian CPI slightly higher than expected – USD/CAD reacts

Canadian CPI YoY: 3% (Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8%). Canada’s headline inflation accelerated to 3% in July, slightly above expectations, mainly because higher Middle East tensions pushed gasoline prices sharply higher. USDCAD weakens after the data. Gasoline prices rose 25.7% year over year, up from 20.5% in June, while CPI excluding gasoline stayed much softer at 2.2%, suggesting energy costs have not yet spread broadly across the economy. Core inflation remained subdued, with the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures averaging about 1.95%, still below the 2% target. Other inflation pressures came from travel tours and airfares, which rose strongly amid World Cup demand and higher jet fuel costs. Grocery inflation eased to 3.1% from 3.9%, while shelter inflation slowed to 1.3%, its weakest pace since May 2020. The inflation report comes alongside firmer economic data, including a 6.4% unemployment rate, strong job creation and preliminary GDP growth of 3.4% annualized in Q2, which may keep the Bank of Canada cautious despite soft core inflation. Source: XTB Research, Statiscis Canada, Macrobond Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 17, 2026

EU chip stocks surge on Anthropic’s earnings! AstraZeneca halts trials for lung cancer therapy

Indices and Companies The session in Europe is running fairly quietly, characterized by cosmetic reshuffling between key markets and sectors. Futures on the broad Stoxx 50 (EU50) gain 0.2%. Futures on the German DAX (DE40), Dutch AEX (NED25), and Spanish IBEX 35 (SPA35) are trading flat. Losses are more visible in France (FRA40: -0.15%) and Switzerland (SUI20: -0.35%). The WIG20 is down about 0.9%. Friday's Anthropic results (a 14-fold jump in quarterly revenue) are driving gains in the semiconductor sector (ASML: +2.7%, STMicro: +3.9%, Infineon: +0.8%, Soitec: +2.7%). Meanwhile, capital is mainly flowing out of software (SAP: -0.8%) and consumer goods (Tesco: -2%, Nestle: -2%, L’Oréal: -1%). AstraZeneca halted clinical trials of the lung cancer drug volrustomig because it did not prove more effective than existing therapies. Despite this, the company's shares are gaining about 0.8% thanks to positive test results for the drugs Tagrisso and Enhertu. The firm plans further studies on volrustomig in the treatment of other cancers. Argenx shares jumped 11% following positive Phase 3 trial results for VYVGART Hytrulo in myositis. The drug met its primary endpoint in patients with IMNM, enabling a regulatory submission. Although statistical significance was not reached in the dermatomyositis (DM) subgroup, analysts view the results as very promising. Volatility in the Stoxx 50 is concentrated in the technology sector. Source: XTB Research, xStation5 data The Stoxx 50 contract paused near record highs, constrained by a nearly overbought RSI. Source: xStation5 🌍 Economy and Geopolitics Sources close to media outlet Al Arabiya indicate the possibility of extending the 60-day agreement between Iran and the US. Furthermore, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported talks with Qatar, which is expected to play a key role in de-escalation efforts. Meanwhile, Donald Trump emphasized that the primary goal for the US is to strip Iran of any chance of acquiring a nuclear weapon. 💱 Currencies, Commodities, and Cryptocurrencies The US dollar maintains its losses from the Asian session (USDIDX: -0.15%), while Antipodean currencies continue to gain the most from rising risk appetite (AUDUSD: +0.7%; NZDUSD: +0.75%). EURUSD briefly crossed the psychological 1.1600 level, but is currently trading just below this resistance (+0.3%). Crude oil futures returned to gains (OIL: +0.6% to $89.20 per barrel), while European natural gas futures trimmed their bullish opening slightly (NATGAS.EU: +1.6%; previously +2%). Precious metals accelerate thanks to sustained dollar weakness. Gold (GOLD) gains 0.6% to $4,400 per ounce, while silver (SILVER) adds 1.5% to $65.70 per ounce. Platinum and palladium futures also remain in the green. Bitcoin gains 1.15% to $63,680, and Ethereum adds 1.7% to $1,908. The P/E ratio between the European Stoxx 50 and the US S&P 500 jumped during the ongoing earnings season. Source: XTB Research

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Gold gains and returns to $4,400. Are precious metals betting on a dovish Fed?

Gold prices opened the week higher on global markets, with gold rising 0.5% to around $4,400 and extending Friday’s gains, while silver is up nearly 1.5%. Precious metals appear to have responded positively to the latest set of U.S. macroeconomic data. Friday’s data showed an unexpected decline in U.S. retail sales and weaker consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan survey. The figures followed relatively “reassuring” July CPI and PPI inflation reports. The latest NFP report also disappointed, while gold appears to be reacting to a reduction in hawkish expectations ahead of the Fed’s autumn policy decisions. Gold price chart (H4, D1) On the 4-hour chart, gold remains above $4,300 per ounce and recently halted its decline around this important Fibonacci retracement level (23.6%). RSI and MACD still appear to leave some room for further gains, while an important Fibonacci resistance level is located near $4,600, where stronger price action can also be seen, including the May consolidation that preceded the subsequent decline. Source: xStation5 On the daily chart, the $4,300 area looks even more important because the 200-session EMA200 (red line) is located there. After briefly falling below this moving average, gold quickly returned to growth. The proximity of the EMA200 itself appears to suggest that, in a scenario where the upward trend resumes, gold could still have considerable room to rise—especially if expectations regarding Fed and ECB policy become more dovish and oil prices gradually decline toward $70–80 per barrel. Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Canadian Dollar: CPI and US tariffs weigh on outlook – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) to keep core inflation below 2%, reinforcing an extended Bank of Canada (BoC) pause. He flags looming 50% US tariffs on nearly USD 20 billion of Canadian imports as an additional headwind, arguing that anchored core inflation and trade friction leave room for BoC rate-hike expectations to be repriced lower, potentially weighing on CAD. Sub‑2% core CPI and tariff risks "Canada July CPI to show underlying inflation contained under 2% (Monday). Headline CPI is seen at 2.9% y/y vs. 2.8% in June, core CPI (ex. food & energy) is expected at 1.8% y/y vs. 1.8% in June, and core CPI (average of trim and median) is projected at 1.85% for a second straight month." "For reference, the BoC projects headline CPI at 2.5% y/y, and core CPI (average of trim and median) at 2.0% y/y over Q3." "On Wednesday, unless trade talks yield a breakthrough, the US will impose 50% tariffs on nearly $20 billion in imports from Canada (0.85% of Canada’s GDP). The tariff would apply to a range of products from wine to hockey sticks to cement." "The tariff will not apply to energy, potash, products subject to tariffs under Section 232, and other goods like fish or critical minerals." "Bottom line, core inflation anchored below the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2% target and ongoing US-Canada trade friction support an extended BoC pause. As such, there is room for BoC rate hikes bets (65bps in the next twelve months) to adjust lower against CAD."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

US Dollar: Softer data challenges resilience – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Lee Hardman note that weaker United States (US) data and lower short-term Treasury yields are undermining US Dollar (USD) support, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds above its 200-day moving average near 99.200. They highlight softer retail sales, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) hike pricing, and expect the Dollar to weaken modestly heading into next year. Softer data weigh on Dollar outlook "The steeping of the US yield curve driven by the move lower for short-term US yields is creating an unfavourable backdrop for US dollar performance although it has not been sufficient yet to trigger another leg lower for the dollar index so far this month." "The dollar index has not yet tested support from the 200-day moving average which comes in at around 99.200." "The run of softer US economic data has encouraged market participants to scale back Fed rate hike expectations." "On 24th July, the US rates market was pricing in around 57bps of Fed hikes by April of next year including a hike in September which was fully priced." "Overall, recent developments are supportive of our forecasts for the US dollar to re-weaken modestly heading into next year."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Polish Zloty: Slow NBP hawkish shift weighs on PLN – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Polish headline and core inflation have re-accelerated, with seasonally adjusted monthly rates now clearly above target. This makes earlier signals from National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski about possible rate cuts obsolete. However, because the central bank is turning hawkish more slowly than inflation is rising, the development is seen as negative for the Polish Zloty (PLN). Re-accelerating prices challenge NBP guidance "Polish CPI inflation was confirmed accelerating to 3.0%y/y in July from 2.5%y/y in June, matching the original consensus. The acceleration was overwhelmingly fuel-driven: passenger fuel prices jumped by 13.9%m/m, taking the annual fuel inflation rate to 15.8%y/y from 5.3%y/y in June. Core inflation also moved in the wrong direction. " "Poland’s Central Bank (NBP) reported that its main core indicator, excluding food, drinks, fuel and energy, accelerated to 3.1%y/y in July from 3.0%y/y in June. The 15% trimmed mean held at 2.8%y/y, but other core measures accelerated, with the index excluding regulated prices accelerating to 2.8%y/y and the index excluding the most volatile prices to 3.4%y/y." "As usual, this year-on-year summary is not our main point: the more relevant seasonally-adjusted month-on-month rates of increase have re-accelerated sharply during June and July and are now clearly above-target. This means that NBP governor Adam Glapinski’s earlier indication that rate cuts may soon follow should now be treated as obsolete." "The development is negative for the zloty because inflation is accelerating faster than NBP is turning hawkish; NBP will at best signal unchanged rates for longer, which may not satisfy the FX market."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

British Pound: Data-heavy week risks BoE repricing – ING

Chris Turner at ING notes that a busier United Kingdom (UK) data calendar, including jobs, wages and July Consumer Price Index (CPI), could challenge the 55bp of Bank of England (BoE) tightening still priced in. ING’s UK economist James Smith expects the data to be too soft to justify that path, which could allow EUR/GBP to move back toward 0.8575/0.8585, while ING maintains slightly negative views on Sterling. Soft data could weigh on Sterling "After a quiet few weeks, the UK data calendar picks up. Jobs and wage data are released tomorrow, and then the July CPI figures on Wednesday." "Our UK economist, James Smith, thinks that the data will not be strong enough to support the 55bp of Bank of England tightening still priced into UK money market curves." "If so, EUR/GBP should have an opportunity to work its way back to the 0.8575/85 area." "Additionally, recall that the suspicion of faulty seasonal adjustments means that UK activity data typically comes in softer in the second half of the year than the first." "We are still hanging on to slightly negative sterling views, even though M&A inflows may be providing temporary support."

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Is the World Facing a Physical Copper Shortage?

Key takeaways Extreme divergence: Copper prices show high resilience and are rising despite a clear economic slowdown in China, which accounts for approximately 50% of global demand. Short squeeze phenomenon: Strong pressure on physical deliveries and record backwardation on the LME (price difference between spot and futures contracts) are driving dynamic price increases. Upside outlook: In the face of warehouse depletion and customs uncertainty, analysts forecast the possibility of breaking the $14,500, or even $15,000 per ton barrier. Copper prices in London rose by over 1% at the start of the session to the highest levels of 2026 Copper prices at the start of today's session continued the dynamic gains that began in late June and early July. Today's rise brought prices to their highest daily levels since January, but at $14,236 per ton, there is a chance for the highest historical close. This results from a growing "squeeze" on London contracts and a fierce battle for physical delivery. The bull market for this commodity continues despite disappointing data from the Chinese economy, which is responsible for about 50% of the total demand for this raw material. Weak data from China vs. the strength of industrial metals July macroeconomic data from China, the world's second-largest economy, strongly disappointed markets. Retail sales grew by only 0.6% y/y against the expected 1.5%. Additionally, industrial production slowed to 4.5% y/y, and new home prices recorded a 3.2% y/y decline. Another worrying signal is the unexpected rise in unemployment to 5.2%. A clear economic slowdown and the ongoing crisis in the real estate market are hitting demand, which affects, among other things, steel production. It is worth mentioning that China is still the largest recipient of copper in the world, mainly due to the use of this material in infrastructure. Nevertheless, copper is becoming increasingly important in the ongoing energy transformation and artificial intelligence. In the past, data from China was an important determinant for copper. Currently, we observe a huge divergence between the leading indicator in the form of the credit impulse and the rising price of copper. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Despite such a negative macroeconomic background, industrial metals are showing particular resilience. Copper is recording an extreme deviation of +3.31σ above the 5-year average. Precious metals maintain an equally strong position: gold (+3.13σ) and silver (+2.95σ) represent a safe haven against global geopolitical and economic risks. Logistics tensions in the Middle East, in the Red Sea region, remain a key risk factor, forcing Asian recipients to change supply routes not only for oil but also for key industrial metals. Standard deviations from the 5-year mean for the most important commodities. Source: XTB The Short Squeeze phenomenon and massive Backwardation on the LME The main driver of copper prices is an extremely strong physical premium in London and a collapse in inventory levels. The price of copper for immediate delivery (spot) on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was at one point $543.50 per ton higher than three-month contracts. Such a difference, known as backwardation, is the largest observed since the sudden market squeeze in 2021. Furthermore, the premium of the most liquid August contracts over September ones reached $370. The price difference between the cash price in London and the 3-month price. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP We are seeing a massive short-term backwardation in the copper market. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Global inventories tracked by the LME have shrunk to just over 200,000 tons. They fell continuously for 42 days, marking the longest such downward streak since 2014. Additional pressure comes from the fact that nearly half of those 205,000 tons of copper in the LME system are already reserved for withdrawal by buyers, leaving the rest of the market with critically low metal availability. Warehouse depletion is supported by the actions of powerful trading groups such as Mercuria, Trafigura, and Vitol, which have been withdrawing copper in recent weeks. Global copper inventories in exchanges are falling, but in a historical context they do not appear to be extremely low, mainly due to the huge increase in US inventories over the last 1.5 years. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Inventory Divide: Massive inflow to the US and empty warehouses in China The current situation exposes the specific distribution of global inventories: while warehouses in China are empty, US inventories are growing. A substantial flow of metal to the US stems from expectations that Donald Trump's administration may soon impose further tariffs on refined copper. This creates an arbitrage stimulating traders to export copper to the US Comex exchange, where prices were breaking records as recently as last year and deviated from London prices by as much as $1,000 per ton. The market is still waiting for a final White House decision, which only fuels uncertainty and increases imports across the ocean. At the same time, Chinese copper smelters have been forced to cut production due to raw material shortages. This problem is compounded by a drop in quality (metal content) in delivered ores and a severe shortage of copper scrap, caused by tightened invoice controls in the Chinese recycling industry. Limited supply from smelters means that some Chinese customers are increasingly relying on importing dwindling inventories from Asian LME warehouses. Future Outlook All these phenomena—supply panic, approaching contract settlement deadlines, and a customs war—have caused copper prices to rise by nearly 15% this year. LME quotes have broken the $14,000 per ton barrier. In analysts' view, the ongoing pressure on entities holding short positions could result in further forced buybacks at increasingly higher prices. It is predicted that in the face of such drastic physical shortages, copper may soon return to its historical highs, breaking the $14,500 barrier and even targeting the vicinity of $15,000 per ton. Copper prices have increased by over 15% this year. Source: XTB Interestingly, we still see a prevalence of short positions over long positions in the London copper market. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Copper prices are recording strong gains at the beginning of the week, breaking out of a multi-day consolidation. Although globally we are not dealing with problems, the local nature of markets may cause a further squeeze, which could push prices to new historical highs. Source: xStation5

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Energies

August 17, 2026

Brent Fluctuates on Monday

Brent crude oil fluctuated on Monday, rising to $89.30 a barrel before easing to around $88.70, as investors assessed the uncertain outlook for the US-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions. Renewed fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz added to concerns that tensions could persist, while stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran limited hopes for a swift resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had not decided whether to resume talks with the US, while President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices as the conflict continues. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also slowed significantly over the weekend following attacks on tankers. Data showed only five commodity vessels transited the waterway on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with 31 during the previous weekend. Despite the heightened risks, the absence of major supply outages limited further gains in oil prices.

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Soybeans Near 3-Week Top

Soybean futures rose above $11.8 per bushel, hitting nearly a three-week high, as firm Chinese demand continued to support prices. According to traders, China had already purchased about 7 million metric tons of US soybeans, while China’s Sinograin said it would auction 360,000 tons of imported soybeans, its fourth sale since late July, in an effort to free up storage space for incoming US supplies. Last week, the USDA raised its 2026 US soybean production estimate by by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels but lowered its yield forecast in the monthly report to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53, reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest. Looking ahead, forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve crop prospects after weeks of heat and dryness supported prices. Traders are also monitoring a major US field tour this week for further indications on soybean and corn yield prospects.

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Banks

August 17, 2026

British Pound: Uptrend intact toward 1.3600 cap against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes GBP/USD invalidated a recent neutral call by breaking above 1.3555 and closing higher near 1.3532. Intraday, the British Pound (GBP) may extend toward 1.3570, with 1.3600 as firm resistance. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the upside bias remains intact while above 1.3495, though gains are expected to stall near 1.3600. Sterling maintains constructive upside bias "24-HOUR VIEW: We expected GBP “to trade between 1.3475 and 1.3515” last Friday. We were incorrect, as GBP soared to a high of 1.3561 before pulling back to close at 1.3532 (+0.33%). While upward momentum has slowed somewhat with the pullback, GBP could rise further toward 1.3570. We do not expect the major resistance at 1.3600 to come into view. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold above 1.3510, with minor support at 1.3525." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After holding a slightly positive GBP view for about two weeks, we revised our view to neutral last Friday (14 Aug, spot at 1.3490). We highlighted that “upward momentum has largely faded.” We also highlighted that “for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3440 and 1.3540.” Our shift in view was premature, as GBP rose sharply, breaking above the major resistance at 1.3555 (high was 1.3561). While we would have preferred a more decisive break above 1.3555, the move is sufficient to indicate that the upward bias remains intact. That said, any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3600. Overall, only a breach of 1.3495 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that GBP is not ready to move toward 1.3600."

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Canada CPI expected to show rising inflation in July

Canadian inflation is expected to rise by 2.9% YoY in July. The core CPI is still seen well above the BoC’s 2% target. The Canadian Dollar has been steadily appreciating vs the US Dollar. Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention when published on Monday. Indeed, Statistics Canada data will provide markets with an update on price pressures following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) July 15 gathering, when officials kept the interest rate steady at 2.25%, broadly in line with the consensus among analysts. This time, economists expect the headline CPI to rise by 2.9% in the year to July, still above the central bank’s goal and up from June’s 2.8% annual increase. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise by 0.7%. The bank will also closely monitor its core measure (which strips food and energy costs), expected to rise by 2.2%, up from the 2.1% YoY gain recorded in the previous month. In the current context of heightened geopolitical volatility, crude Oil dynamics are likely to keep inflationary pressures anything but abated. Adding to this scenario, we should not forget the impact of US tariffs on domestic consumer prices.  Still around data, the bank’s preferred gauges, CPI-Common, Trimmed Mean, and Median, receded in June to 2.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively. What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate? Inflation lost some momentum in June, although market participants remain somewhat sceptical about the continuation of this trend into July. At its latest gathering, the BoC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. While the reduced annual economic growth projection and current economic slack argue against extra tightening, the combination of higher anticipated inflation and confidence in the recent recovery, plus Governor Tiff Macklem’s specific caution against successive rises, means the BoC is attentive to continued oil-driven price pressures. So far, market participants expect just over 18 basis points of tightening by year-end. When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD? Markets will fully focus on Monday at 12:30 GMT, when Statistics Canada publishes July’s inflation prints. If inflation reverses the recent decline, bets on further rate hikes should likely increase, providing fresh legs for the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes that USD/CAD has been in a steady downtrend since late July, almost entirely tracking developments in the Middle East conflicts and their impact on the Greenback. Piovano points out that USD/CAD has recently broken below the 1.3900 support level for the first time since early June. In doing so, it has also left behind its provisional 100-day SMA in the 1.3920 region. Further losses carry the potential to confront the critical 200-day SMA in the mid-1.3800s. If bulls regain control, the interim 55-day SMA around 1.4060 becomes the immediate target, followed by the August ceiling at 1.4080 (August 4) and the weekly peak at 1.4129 (July 28). “Momentum could prompt some technical correction,” he adds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is entering the oversold threshold near 29, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 30 suggests a firm trend.

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention risks cap losses against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that September Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike odds have risen sharply, but the Japanese Yen (JPY) has reacted only modestly. They argue a sustained Yen recovery likely needs clearer commitment to faster policy normalisation. For now, they expect intervention risks to cap USD/JPY near 160. Yen needs stronger policy normalisation signal "Bloomberg reported that the Takaichi administration supports an early BoJ rate hike, helping lift market-implied odds of a September hike to 80%, from 50% at the start of August." "This points to growing alignment between the BoJ, which remains concerned about inflationary pressures from a weak JPY, and the government, which is seeking to enhance the effectiveness of JPY-buying intervention." "Despite the shift in expectations, the JPY's response has been muted. Should the BoJ deliver another rate hike in September, it would mark its third increase in nine months and the fastest pace of policy tightening since the collapse of Japan's asset bubble in 1989." "However, it remains unclear how much appetite the government has for additional rate hikes beyond September or October." "A more meaningful and sustained JPY recovery will likely require a stronger signal from the BoJ that policy normalisation can proceed at a faster pace. For now, intervention risks should help cap USD/JPY near 160..."

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Economic Calendar: Light Monday may channel the bulls. NYC and housing market data

The new week begins with relative calm on Wall Street. There are no major macroeconomic data releases on the calendar, nor are there any earnings reports from major companies. However, the market continues to be moved by Friday's series of US data, which once again lowered expectations for Fed interest rate hikes. While investors reacted with uncertainty at the end of last week to the drop in retail sales and the emerging weakness of the US consumer, the observed euphoria in Asia suggests a return of the bull market. Key Releases from the Asian Session and Morning Japan (GDP): Preliminary Q2 GDP data disappointed proponents of faster rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Annualized GDP grew by just 1.1% (consensus: 2.1%, previous: 1.9%), while quarterly seasonally adjusted GDP came in at 0.3% QoQ (versus the projected 0.5% QoQ). The main culprit was weakness in the domestic consumer. Japan (Industrial Production): A bright spot from the Land of the Rising Sun came from June industrial production data, which significantly beat market expectations. The seasonally adjusted figure rose 1.9% MoM (consensus: 1.3% MoM), while rebounding to 4.9% YoY on an annual basis (forecast: 4.2% YoY, previous: -2.1% YoY). USDJPY moves away from the psychological 160 barrier again. Source: xStation5 Macroeconomic Calendar 11:30 AM Eurozone – Speech by ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane 2:30 PM US – NY Empire State Index for August (Consensus: 10.8 | Previous: 15.6) 4:00 PM US – NAHB Housing Market Index for August (Consensus: 33 | Previous: 34) 10:00 PM US – Monthly Net Capital Inflows for June (Previous: $132.2B) 10:00 PM US – Long-term Capital Inflows for June (Consensus: $151.4B | Previous: $232.7B) Key Corporate Earnings Releases BHP Group Fabrinet 3 Markets to Watch Today USDJPY (FX): Lower-than-expected Q2 economic growth data in Japan (annualized GDP at 1.1% vs. 2.1% forecast) takes some pressure off the Bank of Japan for rapid tightening, although broad US dollar weakness keeps the currency pair trading below 160. S&P 500 / US500 (Stock Index): The US index futures contract is trading just 0.3% below the all-time high set last week. The first regional test of US economic conditions will be the NY Empire State reading at 2:30 PM (forecasted drop to 10.8 points). A result significantly deviating from forecasts will set the risk tone for the New York open. EURUSD (FX): The major currency pair is breaking out of its two-week consolidation to two-month highs. In the absence of hard European economic data, investors will look for impulses in central bankers' speeches and afternoon US housing market indicators (NAHB).

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Markets

August 17, 2026

EUR/USD at 2-month high! Rate hike bets keep shrinking

📊 Indices and Companies After an uncertain Friday session, US index futures resume gains near historical highs. Nasdaq futures are gaining the most (US100: +0.3%). S&P 500 futures (US500: +0.15%) and Russell 2000 futures (US2000: +0.05%) are also up. Declines in DJIA futures (US30: -0.05%) suggest a continued capital shift toward tech stocks. Asia is seeing a rally driven by falling expectations for US interest rate hikes following weak Friday consumer data (a drop in retail sales and sentiment indices). Gains were led by Hong Kong (HK.cash: +1.1%) and China (CHN.cash: +1.15%). Nikkei 225 futures (JP225) gained 0.3% despite significantly weaker Japanese GDP data. Australia is trading flat, while South Korea is closed for a holiday. The semiconductor sector led gains in Japan and China (including Kioxia +7.6%, SMIC +7.1%, and Cambricon +5%). Alibaba added 1.5% following reports of a planned sale of gaming studio Lingxi Games (valued at >$1.5 billion). In Australia, select companies fell sharply after reporting earnings: retailer JB Hi-Fi and bank NAB (down over 3.5% following warnings of a slump in the mortgage market). 🌍 Economy and Geopolitics Japanese GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% in Q2 (0.3% QoQ), falling well below the 2% consensus. An unexpected drop in domestic demand was the main driver behind the miss. Private consumption fell for the first time in two years (-0.02% QoQ), while CAPEX contracted by 1.2% QoQ due to supply chain uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East. These declines offset the positive impact of net exports, which were buoyed by demand for AI equipment and hybrid vehicles. Conversely, industrial production delivered a positive surprise (4.9% YoY; forecast: 4.2%, previous: -2.1%), reflecting the optimism recently signaled in the Tankan survey. Foreign ministers from eight nations (including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt) along with Hamas condemned Israel's rejection of the Board of Peace plan. Turkish President Erdogan stated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains a top priority. 💱 Currencies, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies The dollar index is down for a third consecutive session (USDIDX: -0.15%), touching lows that marked key support in mid-June. Rising risk appetite in Asia is confirmed by broad gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars (AUDUSD: +0.4%, NZDUSD: +0.6%). The yen is strengthening despite weak GDP data (USDJPY: -0.15%). EURUSD (+0.2%) is trading at a two-month high near 1.1585. Brent futures (OIL) remain glued to Friday's close (around $88.50 per barrel) amid a lack of material changes in the Middle East. European natural gas futures opened higher (NATGAS.EU: +2%, NATGAS: -2%). Declining expectations for Fed rate hikes are once again driving precious metals. Gold gains 0.4% to $4,393 per ounce, while silver adds 1.6% to $65.70 per ounce. Platinum and palladium futures are also trading in the green. In crypto, moderate optimism prevails. Bitcoin adds 0.9% to $63,520, while Ethereum gains 1.3% to $1,900.

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Markets

August 17, 2026

XAG/USD approaches $66.00 favoured by a softer US Dollar

XAG/USD trades near $66.00 on Monday after bouncing from $63.50 lows on Friday. Weak US data curbed hopes of a September Fed rate hike and weighed on the US Dollar last week. The key resistance area for Silver bulls is around $67.00. Silver (XAG/USD) trades on a strong footing on Monday, reaching levels above $65.80 at the European session opening times, after bouncing from the $63.50 area on Friday. Precious metals are being boosted by US Dollar (USD) weakness, as recent US macroeconomic data has curbed hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year. US data released on Friday endorsed this view, as July's Retail Sales dropped 0.6% against market expectations of a 0.1% gain, following a 0.2% increase in June. These figures follow relatively soft producer and consumer price figures released earlier in the week and another disappointment in Nonfarm Payrolls in the previous week. Against this background, investors have dialed back bets of a Fed hike in September to 30%, from above 50% one week ago, according to data by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the $67.00 area XAG/USD reached the target of a bullish Head & Shoulders pattern at the $67.00 area last week, and has been consolidating ever since, with bearish attempts limited above previous highs, at $63.30. The pair, thus, holds a constructive near-term pattern and momentum indicators in the daily chart remain within bullish territory. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering above 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line maintains a firm positive reading near 0.81, highlighting persistent upside pressure. Bulls remain capped below the $66.00 area on Monday, which is closing the path towards the June 22 high, at $67.17. Further up, there is a heavier supply zone defined by the June 17 high, at $71.56, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $71.70. On the downside, the mentioned $63.30 area is expected to challenge bears, ahead of the August 6 and 7 lows, around $62.00 and the late July lows, in the mid-range of the $56.00s.

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Swedish Krona: Riksbank steady as currency lags – BNY

BNY's Wee Khoon Chong note Sweden’s Riksbank appears comfortable with its current policy stance as inflation stays below target, leaving two hikes in the repo path mainly as a risk acknowledgment. Despite favorable real-rate dynamics, Swedish Krona (SEK) performance is constrained by valuation concerns and a high KIX level. Chong expects the Riksbank to avoid aggressive SEK-supportive action while CPI remains anchored. Riksbank comfortable despite weak krona "We believe Sweden’s Riksbank – along with the Swiss National Bank – is the most “at ease” with its current policy path as inflation remains well below target levels." "Given the favorable outlook on prices and real rates, SEK performance might leave much to be desired." "The KIX, Sweden’s import-weighted exchange rate index, remains at the upper end of its recent range, which would normally prompt the Riksbank to state that the currency is undervalued." "The June Monetary Policy Report envisaged the KIX at an annualized average of 116.18, which is already an adjustment to reflect a weaker SEK (i.e., import prices go up)." "Swedish producer prices are clearly moving in tandem, but as long as CPI is anchored, we expect the Riksbank to hold off on being more assertive by bringing forward the two hikes currently in the repo path."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Equities: Mixed performance across regions – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a mixed global equity picture, with the Nikkei, CSI 300, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng all advancing, while US equity futures, led by NASDAQ, also point higher. They note that underwhelming domestic growth has weighed on China’s main indices, which are flat year-to-date versus strong gains in the S&P 500, Stoxx 600 and Nikkei. Regional stock indices show divergent trends "European equities were more subdued, with the STOXX 600 (-0.36%, -0.21% Friday), the CAC (-0.90%, -0.16% Friday) and the FTSE 100 (-1.38%, -0.21% Friday) falling back, though the DAX (+0.46%, +0.53% Friday) reached a new record. And in Asia, we saw strong gains for the KOSPI (+11.49%) and Nikkei (+4.74%), which saw their best weeks since May and June respectively." "While bonds struggled, US equities put in a more positive performance. The S&P 500 rose +0.36% despite a -0.17% pullback on Friday from Thursday’s record high, with the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.12%, +0.51% Friday) also reaching a record high. " "Underwhelming domestic growth has also contributed to the underperformance in China’s equity market, with the main indices essentially flat YTD, in contrast to a +13.7% rise for the S&P 500, +11.1% for the Stoxx 600 and +36.5% for the Nikkei." "Following Japan’s GDP data, the Nikkei (+0.30%) is slightly higher but underperforming gains in China’s markets including the CSI 300 (+0.76%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.84% ) as well as the Hang Seng (+1.61%) in Hong Kong." "Equity futures are also advancing, with NASDAQ futures (+0.35%) leading those on the S&P 500 (+0.10%) and Europe’s Stoxx 50 (+0.30%) this morning." "As the earnings season begins to wind down, the spotlight will be on the US retailers Home Depot (Tuesday), Target, TJX (Wednesday) and Walmart (Thursday) to gauge the health of the US consumer. Other names to watch include Analog Devices and Deere in the US and Alibaba and Baidu in China."

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Banks

August 17, 2026

Japanese Yen: Nominal growth underpins cautious strength – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says solid nominal growth and higher-than-expected inflation should keep pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates again as early as September or October. Alongside a potentially improving fiscal outlook, these factors support a modestly stronger Japanese Yen (JPY) despite continued market caution after recent interventions. Higher inflation keeps BoJ under pressure "The Japanese economy grew by 0.3% in real terms in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, which was significantly slower than most analysts had expected. In nominal terms, however, the economy grew by 1.2% compared to the previous quarter, as expected, meaning that overall economic inflation (the deflator) was higher than anticipated." "The Japanese yen has shown little reaction to this news this morning. However, there are two reasons why this should actually provide support for the yen:" "First, growth of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter is still robust. Although the details were somewhat weaker, an annualized growth rate of 1.1% is still positive for Japan. The higher inflation should also keep up the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again as early as September or October, which should support the JPY." "Furthermore, there have been regular reports in recent weeks suggesting that Japan’s fiscal problems and high debt levels are weighing on the Japanese yen. We consider this view to be exaggerated. After all, Japan has one of the lowest budget deficits among the G10 countries, and while its debt level is high, it is at least declining." "However, rising yields on Japanese government bonds are making many market participants nervous. From this perspective, the high nominal growth should have a positive effect, as it should lead to higher tax revenues and thus an improved fiscal situation. The market remains cautious in the wake of the interventions. In our view

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Banks

August 17, 2026

British Pound: Data mix limits sustained gains against US Dollar – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad says improving United Kingdom (UK) disinflation alongside solid Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should support the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR), but sees limited scope for a lasting rally. With spare capacity allowing markets to trim Bank of England (BoE) hike expectations, upcoming labour, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data are expected to broadly match BoE projections. Disinflation supports but caps Pound "Signs the UK disinflation trend is gaining traction, following the recent solid Q2 real GDP print, would improve the growth-inflation mix and underpin GBP vs. USD and EUR. However, ample spare capacity in the UK economy leaves room for markets to trim BoE rate hike bets (60bps in the next twelve months) and argues against a sustained GBP rally." "UK June labor market to show wage growth slowing (Tuesday). The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.8% vs. 4.9% in May and the policy-relevant private sector regular pay growth is seen slowing to 2.8% y/y vs. 2.9% in May. If so, both data would match the Bank of England’s forecast." "UK July CPI to show underlying inflation easing (Wednesday). Headline CPI is expected at 2.9% y/y (BoE projection: 2.8%) vs. 2.6% in June, core CPI is seen at 2.5% y/y vs. 2.6% in June, and services CPI is projected at 3.4% (BoE projection: 3.4%) vs. 3.6% in June." "UK July retail sales are set for payback after two unusually strong months (Friday

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Iron Ore Falls on Demand Concerns

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 700 per ton, hovering near 14-month lows amid persistent concerns over demand in top consumer China. Recent data showed China’s new yuan loans posted a record contraction in July as seasonal factors and weak household credit demand weighed on lending activity. This points to subdued property and infrastructure investment, key drivers of steel consumption in China, and in turn signals weaker demand for iron ore. Meanwhile, industry data showed blast furnace operating rates among Chinese steel mills rose to 82.64% last week, up 0.32 percentage points from the previous week. Elsewhere, reports indicated that China’s state iron ore buyer reached an agreement with Anglo American in April on an annual supply contract for the key steelmaking ingredient.

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Energies

August 17, 2026

UK Natural Gas Rises Further on Supply Risks

UK natural gas prices rose above 154 pence a therm on Monday, reaching a fresh three-week high amid continued disruption to LNG supplies from the Gulf as US-Iran negotiations stalled. Renewed Israeli strikes against Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with the latest US threats of additional sanctions on Iran, have further clouded prospects for an imminent agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the waterway has fallen sharply following recent attacks on vessels, highlighting persistent security risks. For Europe, concerns over gas inventories are becoming increasingly pressing, as storage levels remain below historical averages and are lagging the pace needed to comfortably meet pre-winter storage targets. Efforts to rebuild inventories have also been hampered by heatwaves across Southern and Central Europe, which have boosted demand for gas-fired power generation, diverting supplies from storage.

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Markets

August 17, 2026

XAU/USD sticks to modest gains around $4,400 amid weaker USD; remains below June 5 high

Gold attracts some follow-through buyers on Monday, though it lacks bullish conviction. Receding Fed rate hike bets continue to undermine the USD and support the commodity. Geopolitical risks help limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the precious metal. Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains at the start of a new week and remains below its highest level since June 5, which it touched last Thursday. The commodity, however, sticks to a positive bias for the second straight day and currently trades just below the $4,400 mark amid mixed fundamental cues. Data released on Friday showed that US Retail Sales dropped 0.6% in July, marking the first fall in nine months and the biggest monthly decline since May last year. Adding to this, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in August to 51 from 55.2 in the previous month. This comes on top of signs of cooling US inflation and further tempers expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the non-yielding bullion. Investors, however, remain worried that volatile energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and force the Fed to stick to a hawkish stance. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the Gold price. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is preparing to hit Iran with economic measures that have never been seen, as soon as this week. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the buck. In other developments, President Donald Trump said that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the US must agree to Tehran's conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway and that there were no negotiations currently taking place. Apart from this, fresh Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries remain supportive of higher oil prices, keeping inflation fears and bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 on the table. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in around a 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This, in turn, warrants some caution for USD bears and before positioning for any further appreciating move in the Gold price as traders await further cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might influence the USD and the precious metal. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $4,400 mark, or the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline, warrant some caution for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the precious metal remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader tone capped despite the recent recovery. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.43 leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory. Improving momentum indicators, however, only hint that buyers are attempting a rebound within a still bearish, resistance-heavy backdrop. Nevertheless, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,400 mark (50% retracement level) should allow the Gold price to test the 200-day SMA near $4,506 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,509. Further barriers are seen at the 78.6% Fibo level at $4,666 and the cycle high zone at $4,865. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,290, ahead of the 23.6% level at $4,154, while a deeper slide would expose the structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor near $3,935.

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UOB

August 17, 2026

Euro: Upside bias targets 1.1590 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD surged to 1.1585, leaving the Euro (EUR) with a firmer tone against the US Dollar (USD). Intraday, the pair could extend gains toward 1.1590, though 1.1610 is seen as strong resistance. Over 1–3 weeks, EUR/USD is expected to trade with an upside bias while holding above 1.1525, with 1.1610 a key hurdle. Euro retains constructive short term tone "24-HOUR VIEW: While we expected EUR to “trade in a range” last Friday, we pointed out that “the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests it is likely to trade within a higher range of 1.1515/1.1550.” EUR subsequently dipped to 1.1524, but it surged during the NY session, reaching a high of 1.1585. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but as long as 1.1545 (minor support is at 1.1555) is not breached, EUR could rise to 1.1590. Based on the prevailing momentum, a sustained rise above this level appears unlikely. The major resistance at 1.1610 is unlikely to come under threat." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our EUR view from conditional positive to neutral last Thursday (13 Aug, spot at 1.1525), indicating that EUR “appears to have entered a range-trading phase, between 1.1480 and 1.1580.” On Friday, EUR broke slightly above 1.1580 with a high of 1.1585. EUR closed 0.36% higher at 1.1569. While we would have preferred a more decisive close above 1.1580, the price action suggests that EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias from here. Currently, it is unclear whether EUR has sufficient momentum to reach the major resistance at 1.1610. On the downside, a break below 1.1525 would indicate that EUR is likely to continue range-trading."

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Cryptocurrencies

August 17, 2026

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC holds critical support, ETH awaits directional move, XRP weakens

Bitcoin finds support around the $62,300 horizontal floor on Monday after a 3.08% drop last week. Ethereum continues to consolidate between the 50- and 100-day EMAs, with a potential breakout ahead. XRP is under pressure, trading at $1.00, with weakening momentum suggesting deeper losses. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) begin the week on a cautious note after slipping over 3%, 1.5%, and 3.5%, respectively, in the previous week. BTC finds support around the key $62,300 level while ETH continues to trade sideways. Meanwhile, XRP hovers around $1.00, with weakening momentum suggesting deeper losses. Bitcoin finds support around key $62,300 mark Bitcoin price trades at $63,135 on Monday, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains capped beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,306 and well below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $66,388 and $71,800, respectively. Momentum readings reinforce the downside skew, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering at 44 in neutral-to-weak territory and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator entrenched in negative territory, suggesting lingering selling pressure despite the recent stabilization above $63,000. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day EMA near $64,306, with a stronger cluster emerging around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing at $65,547 and the 100-day EMA at $66,388, just ahead of the horizontal barrier at $66,500; a daily close above this zone would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward the 50% retracement level at $67,940. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $62,586, followed by the horizontal floor at $62,300, where a break would likely expose deeper losses toward the lower end of the broader range. BTC/USDT daily chart Ethereum continues to be range-bound Ethereum price trades at $1,892 on Monday, holding above the 50-day EMA at $1,867 but remaining capped beneath the 100-day EMA at $1,919; it has traded sideways since mid-July.  The RSI near 53 hints at modest positive momentum, yet the MACD stays negative, suggesting buying pressure is tentative rather than impulsive. On the topside, initial resistance sits at the 100-day EMA around $1,919; a break there would expose the psychological horizontal barrier at $2,000 before the more strategic 200-day EMA at $2,118.  On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $1,867 provides immediate support; a daily close below this level would open the door to the more distant horizontal support zone near $1,385, where a major structural floor emerges on the longer-term chart. ETH/USDT daily chart XRP shows caution signals XRP price trades at $1.00 on Monday, keeping a bearish bias as price holds beneath the 50-day EMA at $1.07 and the 100-day EMA at $1.15. The broader trend backdrop remains heavy with the 200-day EMA far above at $1.35, while the RSI around 37 and a negative MACD reading both hint at lingering downside pressure rather than an imminent bullish reversal. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA near $1.07, followed by the 100-day EMA around $1.15 and the horizontal barrier at $1.30, with a more distant cap reinforced by the 200-day EMA near $1.35 and the structural high around $1.90.  On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the psychological and horizontal floor at $1.00, where a sustained break would expose fresh lows and deepen the prevailing bearish structure. XRP/USDT daily chart

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Energies

August 17, 2026

Heating Oil Hovers Near 4-Month High

US heating oil futures traded near $4.30 per gallon, hovering close to a four-month high, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed while talks between the US and Iran remained at a standstill. No peace deal between the US and Iran appears in sight, as President Trump signaled plans to intensify economic pressure on Iran, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said new sanctions could be announced this week. Meanwhile, more vessels were attacked in the key passageway late last week. Still, Middle Eastern oil producers continue to move substantial volumes of crude through the Persian Gulf despite the incidents. Elsewhere, frequent Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted fuel supplies, prompting gasoline rationing in at least two regions and restrictions on refined-product exports. Russia has since extended its existing diesel export ban until January 2027, maintaining restrictions on supplies of the middle distillate used in heating oil.

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Energies

August 17, 2026

European Gas Climbs as Supply Risks Persist

European natural gas prices climbed above €62 per MWh on Monday, hitting a fresh three-week high amid continued disruption to LNG supplies from the Gulf as US-Iran negotiations stalled. Renewed Israeli strikes against Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with the latest US threats of additional sanctions on Iran, have further clouded prospects for an imminent agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the waterway has fallen sharply following recent attacks on vessels, highlighting persistent security risks. For Europe, concerns over gas inventories are becoming increasingly pressing, as storage levels remain below historical averages and are lagging the pace needed to comfortably meet pre-winter storage targets. Efforts to rebuild inventories have also been hampered by heatwaves across Southern and Central Europe, which have boosted demand for gas-fired power generation, diverting supplies from storage.

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Energies

August 17, 2026

Gasoline Holds Near Two-Week High

US gasoline futures held around $3.18 per gallon, near a more than two-week high, as crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz slowed while US-Iran negotiations stalled. Prospects for a peace deal remain limited after President Trump signaled plans to increase economic pressure on Tehran, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said new sanctions could be announced this week. Meanwhile, more vessels came under attack in the key waterway late last week, including ships linked to Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Despite the disruptions, Middle Eastern producers continue to transport substantial volumes of crude through the Persian Gulf. Elsewhere, repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted fuel supplies, prompting gasoline rationing in at least two regions and restrictions on refined-product exports. Russia has since extended its existing diesel export ban until January 2027, maintaining restrictions on global middle-distillate supplies.

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Wheat Futures Hover Near 1-Month High

Wheat prices traded around $6.7 per bushel in mid-August, remaining at its highest level since July 24, as escalating tensions in the Black Sea continued to fuel concerns over global grain supplies. Russia rejected the prospect of a Black Sea ceasefire with Ukraine, saying it saw no basis for “half-measures” that would provide relief to its opponent. Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea in recent weeks, disrupting trade flows and driving grain prices higher. Reflecting these risks, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its outlook for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, cutting its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports to 46 million tonnes and Ukraine’s to 13.5 million tonnes. Additional support came from deteriorating crop conditions in the southern US Plains, where persistent dryness has raised concerns ahead of the planting season for the 2027 winter wheat crop, which is set to begin in roughly a month.

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Energies

August 17, 2026

US Natural Gas Prices Decline

US natural gas prices dropped more than 2% to around $2.66 per million British thermal units on Monday, hovering near three-month lows as robust production and comfortable inventory levels offset weather-driven demand. An EIA report showed energy firms injected 36 bcf of gas into storage in the week ended August 7, larger than expectations of a 31 bcf build and the five-year average increase of 33 bcf. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 111.3 bcfd so far in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, keeping inventories above their five-year average since March. Adding to the downward pressure, gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities eased to 17.1 bcfd in August from 17.2 bcfd in July, reducing the volume of gas processed for export and leaving more supply available to the domestic market. However, hotter-than-normal weather is expected to persist through the end of August, likely prompting utilities to use more gas for power generation to meet cooling demand.

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Copper Jumps on Supply Concerns

Copper futures jumped above $6.7 per pound on Monday, moving toward fresh record highs amid further signs of tightening global supply. China’s refined copper output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month in August as persistent shortages of copper concentrate and other smelter feedstocks continue to weigh on operating rates, highlighting increasingly tight raw material availability. At the same time, tighter domestic tax-invoice regulations have reduced the availability of VAT-compliant recycled copper, limiting another key source of smelter feedstock and putting further pressure on refined output. In top producer Chile, state-owned miner Codelco reportedly expects copper production to decline this year as it faces setbacks at its mines and development projects. Traders also remained cautious about potential US import tariffs on copper, which have continued to divert metal away from international markets and into US warehouses.

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Markets

August 17, 2026

Palm Oil Climbs to Highest Level Since April

Malaysian palm oil futures surged over 2% to around MYR 4,820 per tonne, marking their highest level since early April and rebounding from recent weakness. Firmer edible oils on the Dalian exchange lifted sentiment, while bargain hunting added support. Demand prospects improved as India's edible oil imports hit a 10-month high in July, with refiners replenishing palm oil and soyoil stocks ahead of the festival season. However, gains were capped by a stronger ringgit and weaker soyoil futures in Chicago markets. Meanwhile, elevated inventories remained a drag, with Malaysia’s July palm oil stocks climbing to a five-month high as production outpaced exports. Simultaneously, export prospects softened, with Intertek estimating shipments fell 7.9% in August 1–15 from the same period in July. Traders also turned cautious ahead of China’s July activity data, including retail sales and industrial output, which could provide fresh clues on demand in another key market.

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Trader Talk – EUR/USD tried to reverse the trend; Wall Street marked its third consecutive week of gains

The main factor driving market volatility : The main driver of the markets remains the US corporate earnings season, which is drawing to a close and has delivered historically strong earnings figures. Earnings growth for the broader market currently stands at nearly 50 per cent year-on-year, confirming solid fundamental support. Investors are digesting this sensational data following a series of recent gains on Wall Street and are entering a phase of stabilisation. At the same time, weaker consumer data is easing inflation concerns and reducing pressure for interest rate rises. Geopolitics : Investors continue to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, including the passage of ships through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. There has been no breakthrough in the US-Iran talks. The Houthi Group, meanwhile, attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Najran using a drone. The attack was in response to what Yemen described as a violation of its sovereignty by Saudi fighter jets, which entered airspace north-east of Saada Macroeconomic data : The US economy has shown signs of weakness, with an unexpected fall in July’s retail sales and a marked deterioration in consumer sentiment in August. In Europe, the situation appears somewhat more stable thanks to accelerating economic growth, with EU GDP rising by half a per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. Inflation in France rebounded slightly to 2.1 per cent year-on-year, driven by rising prices for services and energy. In Germany, wholesale prices rose noticeably, mainly due to higher fuel tax rates and international turmoil. Indices : The US S&P 500, having hit an all-time high yesterday, is trading slightly lower today, but is still on course for its third consecutive week of gains. Leading valuation indicators suggest that, despite being close to its highs, the technology market is not extremely overheated and remains below the average levels observed since 2023. European stock markets are trading without a clear direction, with futures on the main indices trading flat. The German DAX is posting modest gains, supported by IT companies. Shares : The technology sector in Europe is clearly gaining ground on the back of reports of a possible takeover of Workday, whose shares jumped by nearly 18 per cent yesterday. Today’s trading session, however, is seeing a natural profit-taking on this stock, with declines of several per cent. Across the Atlantic, shares in domestic drone manufacturers are climbing sharply, reacting enthusiastically to the imposition of tariffs on foreign competitors. Cisco Systems is performing less well following a downgrade by analysts due to concerns about a slowdown in growth. Currencies : The US dollar is losing ground at the end of the week, giving way to a rising euro. The European currency is attempting to break through an important long-term price average, which could pave the way for further gains on the charts. The Japanese yen is behaving surprisingly, as it is once again under supply pressure despite expectations of a tightening of the central bank’s policy. Commodities : On the crude oil market, Brent futures have given up their initial gains and are stabilising at around $87 per barrel. Precious metals are slowly recouping their losses following yesterday’s correction. Gold is rising in price and has broken through the $4,360 per ounce mark, whilst silver is following suit, reaching almost $65 per ounce. Natural gas prices are also continuing to rise. Cryptocurrencies : The digital assets market is seeing slight declines today, in line with a broader cooling of market sentiment. Bitcoin has slipped to around $62,900, losing a fraction of a per cent compared with yesterday’s close. The sector is still awaiting impetus from institutional investors and is laying the foundations for a possible break from its correlation with the stock markets. Upcoming central bank decisions remain a key indicator for the future direction of speculative capital in the digital space.

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Forex Trading

August 15, 2026

Three Markets to Watch Next Week

In the past week, financial markets focused once again on the geopolitical situation, mainly related to the Middle East, but due to the lack of major narrative shifts, investors shifted their focus increasingly toward incoming macroeconomic data. Once again, we saw a series of data releases that should keep the Fed away from potential interest rate hikes. This week will bring investors a series of key macroeconomic and corporate catalysts. The spotlight will be on the release of the minutes from the July Fed meeting (FOMC Minutes), financial results from major US retail chains (led by Walmart), a series of inflation readings (including from Japan and the UK), and preliminary PMI indicators for major economies. Given this schedule, the markets with the highest potential for volatility this week will be USDJPY, US500, and GBPUSD. USDJPY The Japanese currency faces a week packed with significant macroeconomic releases that could set the direction for the USDJPY pair in the coming weeks. At the start of the week, the market is analyzing Japan's Q2 GDP estimates. Meanwhile, on Friday, a key CPI inflation reading from Japan and the preliminary PMI indicator for the economy will be published. On the dollar side, Wednesday's minutes from the recent Fed meeting ("FOMC minutes") will be crucial. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains under pressure due to rising living costs and wage pressures. In the past, higher CPI inflation readings sparked speculation about faster monetary policy tightening by the BoJ, leading to sharp reactions in the yen. Currently, the market is already pricing in an 80% chance of a rate hike in September, which could support recent efforts by the governments of Japan and the US to strengthen the yen. If Friday's inflation surprises to the upside and Wednesday's Fed minutes reveal greater concerns among American policymakers about an economic slowdown, the USDJPY pair could come under downward pressure. US500 (S&P 500 futures) US stock indices are entering a test of domestic consumer health. Although earnings season is nearly over, financial reports from retail giants lie ahead: Home Depot (Tuesday), Target and Lowe's (Wednesday), and Walmart (Thursday). Completing the picture of the US economy will be Wednesday's minutes from the last Fed meeting and Friday's preliminary manufacturing and services PMI readings from the US. It is worth noting that Walmart's earnings serve as a litmus test for assessing nearly 70% of US GDP generated by consumption. Historically, guidance from Walmart's management regarding consumer demand could trigger strong movements across the entire S&P 500 index. Weaker forecasts combined with FOMC minutes pointing to persistent inflation risks could become a pretext for profit-taking in the stock market. At the same time, the US stock market will remain sensitive to changing expectations regarding interest rate prospects. GBPUSD The third market worth special attention is the so-called "Cable", namely the GBPUSD pair, primarily due to an exceptionally tight calendar for the UK economy. On Tuesday, we will get labor market data from the UK (unemployment rate forecast at 4.9%), on Wednesday a key CPI inflation report (forecasted reading of 2.6% YoY), and on Friday preliminary PMI indicators and retail sales data. Market pricing of future Bank of England (BoE) interest rates is extremely sensitive to wage pressure and services sector inflation. Higher-than-expected UK CPI readings in recent months effectively prevented the BoE from making a dovish pivot, but at the same time, the Bank of England itself did not decide to raise interest rates this year like the ECB, even though during the ongoing energy crisis up to 3 or 4 hikes were priced in for this year. Currently, the market expects only or as many as a single move by the end of this year. If Wednesday's inflation surprises to the upside while US PMI data disappoints on Friday, the GBPUSD pair could receive a strong upward boost.

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Cryptocurrencies

August 15, 2026

JPMorgan severs banking ties with Polymarket amid regulatory concerns

JPMorgan ended its banking relationship with Polymarket in October 2025, citing regulatory concerns surrounding the prediction market platform. Polymarket continues to face regulatory scrutiny, including a reported CFTC investigation and legal challenges over prediction market restrictions. JPMorgan reportedly remains interested in underwriting a potential Polymarket IPO despite ending its formal banking relationship with the platform. JPMorgan Chase ended its banking relationship with prediction market platform Polymarket in late 2025 over regulatory concerns, according to a Financial Times report. JPMorgan cuts banking ties with Polymarket The report noted that JPMorgan told Polymarket in October 2025 that it would need to find another banking partner. Polymarket has since moved to another lender, though it has not disclosed the new banking partner's identity. The decision came as Polymarket was working to reestablish its presence in the US following a regulatory settlement that previously prevented it from serving users in the region. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket's parent company, Blockratize, $1.4 million in a civil penalty in January 2022 for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange. The platform was also required to wind down markets that failed to comply with federal derivatives regulations. Polymarket has since taken steps to return to the US market. The company acquired QCX and QC Clearing in 2025 and secured a CFTC staff letter providing limited no-action relief for certain reporting and recordkeeping requirements. The CFTC's registry currently lists QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, as a designated contract market. The regulator also amended the company's designation in November to allow futures commission merchant intermediation. However, the banking split did not appear to end all ties between the two companies. Polymarket reportedly maintains a close relationship with JPMorgan across multiple entities, operational integrations and customer fund flows. JPMorgan is also reportedly interested in potentially underwriting a future Polymarket initial public offering. In June, Bloomberg reported that the CFTC  opened another investigation into the prediction market platform, although the agency is yet to confirm any such probe. Legal challenges involving prediction markets have also continued in the U.S. Polymarket and Kalshi received preliminary relief against Minnesota's prediction market ban on July 27, although the court emphasized that the preliminary injunction did not represent a final ruling. On August 12, the New York City Council announced an inquiry into the marketing of prediction markets and requested information from Polymarket and three other platforms. The banking decision comes as Polymarket continues to seek investor interest. The predictions market platform reportedly plans to raise roughly $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), invested $1 billion in Polymarket in October 2025 and announced an additional $600 million direct investment in March.

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Banks

August 15, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Activity data and PBOC stance guide FX – MUFG

MUFG’s Asia FX Weekly highlights that China’s July activity indicators, following weak Q2 GDP, will be central for the Chinese Yuan and regional FX. The authors stress ongoing weakness in fixed asset investment and property-sector challenges, and question whether domestic demand is stabilizing and whether PBOC will tolerate continued CNY strength. They also note PBOC has been guiding USD/CNY lower via its daily fixing. China data and fixing steer CNY "In China, attention will centre on July activity indicators, following a weak Q2 GDP print." "Fixed asset investment is likely to remain weak, underscoring ongoing challenges in the property sector." "The key question for FX markets is whether domestic demand shows signs of stabilization and whether PBOC is comfortable allowing continued strength in CNY." "Any weaker-than-expected Chinese activity data could weigh on regional

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Banks

August 15, 2026

South Korean Won: Foreign inflows and exporters support KRW – Commerzbank

Commerzbank notes that the Kospi has rebounded 29.5% from its 30 July low, supported by strong tech earnings and improved sentiment toward semiconductor and memory chipmakers. They note USD/KRW has retreated nearly 8.9% from its July high as exporters’ repatriation and foreign portfolio inflows bolster the Korean Won. Despite a modest 0.3% rise to 1,421 on a stronger Dollar, KRW is the second-strongest Asian currency this year, up 1.5% versus USD and outperforming the regional ex-Japan average of -2.1%. Further volatility moderation in equities may offer near-term KRW support. USD/KRW retreats from July peak "The South Korean equity benchmark Kospi rose 3.6% yesterday, following a 3.7% rally on Wednesday. The index has now rebounded by 29.5% from its 30 July low. The recovery was driven by strong tech earnings, which boosted market sentiment toward semiconductor names and lifted South Korean chipmakers." "This combination of recovering semiconductor sentiment and easing Kospi volatility has enticed foreign investors to re-enter the market. Since 30 July, foreign investors have net bought USD1.9bn of South Korean equities. A further moderation in volatility could support additional portfolio inflows and provide near-term support for the KRW." "USD/KRW rose 0.3% to 1,421 yesterday, driven by a stronger USD. Nonetheless, the pair has fallen by nearly 8.9% from its July high of 1,559, as exporters' repatriation activity and foreign portfolio inflows continue to support the KRW." "Year-to-date, KRW is up 1.5% vs the USD, well above the average for Asian currencies ex-Japan of -2.1%."

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Banks

August 15, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Steady appreciation backed by PBoC stance – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts highlight CNY’s firm trend, with the currency advancing to 6.7424, its strongest level since February 2023, on Dollar weakness and lower US yields. The PBoC reiterates an accommodative stance and targeted support while avoiding explicit rate or RRR cut signals, as 10-year CGB yields fall below 1.70%. Policy support underpins currency strength "CNY maintains steady appreciation path: The CNY advanced to 6.7424 today, its strongest level since February 2023, supported by broad-based dollar weakness and lower US yields." "In its latest quarterly monetary policy implementation report, the PBoC reiterated its commitment to maintaining an appropriately accommodative policy stance and deploying targeted support measures when needed, while stopping short of explicitly signalling policy rate or RRR cuts." "Chinese bonds continue to demonstrate notable resilience, with the 10y CGB yield falling below 1.70% for the first time in a year after the PBoC’s first mid-month overnight reverse repo (liquidity injection)." "Separately, the Ministry of Finance successfully sold 50y special sovereign bonds at an average yield of 2.2831%."

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Silver Price – XAG stalled as yields cap recovery

XAG/USD rebounds from daily lows, but yields cap gains. Bullish RSI supports short-term recovery despite bearish market structure. Break below $63.28 exposes 50-day SMA and $56.57. Silver price advanced by some 0.39% on Friday, capped by rising US yields, even though US data was softer than expected. XAG/USD trades at $64.70, after bouncing off daily lows of $63.51. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook The white metal remains downward biased despite signs of bottoming around the $54.70 area, near the yearly low of $54.77. Momentum is bullish in the short term, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but from a market structure perspective, it remains bearish. For a bullish continuation, the first resistance for XAG/USD would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.76. Above, the first key resistance is the 200-day SMA at 71.64, ahead of the $72.00 mark On the downside, if Silver drops the July 6 high of $63.28, the next support would be the 50-day SMA at $61.35. Below the next stop would be the August 3 low of $56.57, followed by the yearly low of $54.77. XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver daily chart

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Week Ahead – Aug 17th

The ongoing standstill between Iran and the US should continue to dictate energy prices and influence global interest rates, after the US prolonged its economic pressure on Iran instead of signaling efforts of diplomacy. Rates will also take the spotlight with minutes from a divisive meeting from the Federal Reserve, which included three dissents. The ECB will also post meeting accounts. Data from the US will be headlined by flash S&P PMIs, building permits, trade terms, and industrial production. PMIs will also be published for the Eurozone, Japan, Australia, India, and the UK. Meanwhile, both the UK and Canada will release inflation and retail sales. The Eurozone and Germany will release ZEW Economic Sentiment indices. Japan will release its Q2 GDP, trade balance, and inflation rate. In the meantime, China will publish industrial production, retail sales, housing prices, and join Australia, the UK, and Canada in unveiling unemployment figures. Sveriges Riksbank will set rates.

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Markets

August 15, 2026

TSX Retreated From Record High

The S&P/TSX Composite Index shed 0.1% to close at 36,730 on Friday, retreating slightly from the record reached in the prior session amid losses in the technology and retail sectors. The technology sector tracked weakness among Wall Street-listed hyperscalers, with Shopify losing 3%, Constellation Software down 2.3% and Celestica tumbling 4%. Meanwhile, Canadian retailers traded lower amid disappointing US data pointing to a slowdown in the sector. ATD shed 0.7% and Loblaw lost 1.1%. The industrial sector was also mostly lower, with Enbridge down 1.2% despite fresh data showing growth in Canada’s factory sales. Financials traded mostly higher despite energy-driven inflationary pressures, as signs of macroeconomic headwinds in the US supported expectations of a Fed rate hold at the next FOMC meeting. TD Bank added 0.5% and CIBC gained 0.8%. Gold prices rose on expectations for US monetary policy, lifting miners. Agnico Eagle rose 2.9%, while WPM and Barrick gained 1.3%.

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Cattle Faced Losses on Friday

Live cattle futures faced Friday pressure, but bounced off the lows to close with contracts 85 cents to $2.60 lower. August was $8.07 lower on the week. There were no new deliveries issued against August futures on Friday. Cash trade rounded out the week with $225-228 sales in the North and some $228 Southern sales. Feeder cattle futures saw losses of $2 to $4.05 across the board on Friday, with August falling $10.82 on the day. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $3.43 on August 13 to $348.50.   Late on Thursday, Tyson announced it will shut its Joslin, IL plant (3,000 hd/day) and sell it’s Pasco, WA plant (2,000 hd/day). They also announced the Amarillo, TX plant will ramp up production after cutting back kill last fall.  Commitment of Traders data showed managed money trimming another 1,405 contracts from their net long in live cattle futures and options to 64,662 contracts as of Tuesday. In feeder cattle futures and options specs added just 133 contracts to their net long of 8,738 contracts in the week of August 11. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Friday afternoon report, narrowing the Chc/Sel spread to $24.06. Choice boxes were down 60 cents at $375.30, with Select up $2 to $351.24. USDA’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter for this week was estimated at 517,000 head through Saturday. That is up 8,000 head from the previous week and 18,913 head below the same week last year. Aug 26 Live Cattle  closed at $223.625, down $2.600, Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $218.875, down $1.175, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $218.375, down $1.075, Aug 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $340.825, down $2.000, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $334.550, down $2.650, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $325.425, down $3.375,

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Coffee Prices See Support from Slow Brazil Harvest

September arabica coffee (KCU26) on Friday closed up +5.00 (+1.50%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed down -45 (-1.23%). Coffee prices have support from the slow pace of Brazil's coffee harvest.  Safras & Mercado reported Friday that the Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest was 90% completed as of August 12, behind 97% last year and the 5-year average of 94%.  Brazil's arabica coffee harvest was 86% complete, behind last year's 95%. Meanwhile, the harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 74.6% complete as of August 7, behind last year's comparable figure of 80.4%, according to a report released on Wednesday. Coffee prices were mixed Friday as market participants assess the extent of disruptions to coffee exports from Colombia due to Monday's devastating earthquake.  Among the areas hit by Monday's 7.4 magnitude quake were the coffee-growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which account for about a quarter of Colombia's production.  Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, which handles most of Colombia's coffee exports, according to a Bloomberg report Thursday quoting the head of Colombia's coffee exporters association, Asoexport.  Yet, traffic through the port remains intermittent and limited.  The report said the earthquake caused no significant damage to coffee processing and milling facilities, according to exporters. Falling inventories are bullish for arabica coffee prices, as ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 231,445 bags on Friday.  By contrast, rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 5-month high of 4,537 lots on Friday. Below-normal rainfall in Brazil should speed up the pace of the country's coffee harvest, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 5.8 mm of rain, or 92% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 9 in Brazil's Minas Gerais, the country's main arabica-coffee growing region. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil's coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags). The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Cocoa Sees Some Support from Weak Dollar

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) on Friday closed up +86 (+1.52), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed up +4 (+0.10%). Cocoa prices on Friday saw support from the -0.3% decline in the dollar index, which was bullish for commodities in general. However, cocoa prices on Friday consolidated just mildly above this week’s 2-week low, which was sparked by reports earlier this week of exceptional growing conditions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana.  The favorable weather has fostered new flowering on cocoa trees ahead of the start of the main crop harvest next month. Last Monday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Rising cocoa inventories are negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,384,965 bags last Wednesday, although inventories have since fallen back to 3,335,656 as of Thursday. In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  However, production is strong for the current marketing year.  Ghana’s cocoa board reported last Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  Cocoa prices have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Also, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Sugar Prices Fall Back from Wednesday’s 1.25-Year Highs

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) on Friday closed down -0.22 (-1.31%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -6.70 (-1.29%). NY and London sugar prices on Friday saw some apparent pre-weekend long liquidation pressure after both contracts rallied to 1.25-year nearest-futures highs on Wednesday. Sugar prices saw underlying support after Czarnikow, in a report released Friday, predicted a 2027/28 global sugar deficit of 2.9 MMT due to lower sugar cane and sugar beet plantings. The group forecast that 2027/28 global sugar production will fall -0.7% yr/yr to 177 MMT, driven mainly by weather disruptions in India, the EU, and Thailand. Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  India’s Meteorological Department reported Thursday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall (June-Sep) was 12% below normal as of August 13, unchanged from the previous several days, but a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30. On July 31, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  India is the world's second-largest sugar-producing country.  Lower sugar output in Brazil is bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported last Thursday that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT. Brazil is the world's largest sugar-producing country. Sugar prices in August have surged due to the outlook for tighter future sugar supplies.  Last Monday, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus.  Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists on July 29 raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT.  StoneX on July 28 raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT.  Sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts global sugar production to fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, with a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX last Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Cotton Moved into the Weekend with Strength

Cotton futures were back to rally mode on Friday, with front month up 116 to 130 points at the close. December was 40 points higher on the week. Crude oil was $1.15 per barrel higher, with the US dollar index $0.320 lower. Commitment of Traders data showed managed money adding another 10,591 contracts to their net long in cotton futures and options during the week ending on August 11. That net long stood at 78,870 contracts on Tuesday, the largest in over 2 years. Export Sales data has 2025/26 accumulated export business at 11.977 million RB, which is 107% of the USDA export projection. Accumulated shipments were 11.198 million RB to round out the marketing year. New crop business at 4.026 million RB is 25% above the same period last year.  The Cotlook A Index was steady on August 13 on Wednesday at 94.95 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks were down 1,779 bales on Wednesday, with the certified stocks level at 75,985 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by 190 points on Thursday to 68.19 cents/lb. Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 83.6, up 124 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 84.8, up 130 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 86.68, up 126 points

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Soybeans Find Strength to Close the Week

Soybeans posted gains of 5 ½ to 11 ¾ cents across most contracts on Friday, with September up 18 ¾ cents on the week. November was up 16 ¼ cents. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 10 3/4 cents at $11.50. Soymeal futures closed the session with contracts up a dime to $2.80, with September up $1.30 this week.  Soy Oil were 9 to 65 points higher, with September 120 in the green for the week. August futures across the complex expired today. USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China this morning for 2026/27 shipment. That took the total sales announced for the week to 641,000 MT all to China.  Commitment of Traders data from CFTC showed managed money cutting back 24,104 contracts from their net long position in the week ending on August 11. That took their net long to 101,362 contracts. USDA Export Sales data now has old crop soybean sales at 41.79 MMT, or 101% of the USDA forecast, which is near the 102-103% average sales pace from the last few years. Shipments are 39.587 MMT, which is 96% of the USDA number. New crop bean sales are 10.13 MMT, which is a 4-year high and more than double the same period last year.  NOPA data will be released on Monday, with traders looking for an estimated 221.5 million bushels of soybeans crushed during July, which would be more than 25 mbu above the same month last year if realized. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.454 billion lbs.  China’s Sinograin will auction off another 360,000 MT of imported beans on Wednesday.  Aug 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.73 3/4, up 9 cents, Nearby Cash  was $11.51, up 10 3/4 cents, Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.77 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.92 1/2, up 10 1/4 cents, New Crop Cash  was $11.35 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Wheat Bulls Put Premium in Heading into the Weekend

The wheat complex led the grain rally on Friday, following more Black Sea news. Chicago SRW contracts were up 11 3/4 to 22 cents on Friday, with a weekly gain of 35 cents. KC HRW futures led the wheat rally, with contracts up 15 to 33 cents on Friday, as September was 40 ¼ cents higher on the week. MPLS spring wheat closed the session with contracts 9 to 10 ¾ cents higher, as September was 1 ¼ cents lower this week.  Russia rejected the Ukrainian proposal for a ceasefire in the Black Sea region on civilian vessels and port infrastructure. Recent increases in strikes on export infrastructure has led to limited shipments out of key ports in the Black Sea in a period where wheat shipments typically ramp up after harvest for one of the world’s key wheat exporting regions.  CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding back another 7,615 contracts to their CBT wheat net short position in the week of 8/11 to a net short of 31,401 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 5,432 contracts from their net long to 27,662 contracts. Export Sales data has total wheat sales for 2026/27 at 7.538 MMT, which is 36% of the current export estimate from USDA and lags the 44% average sales pace.  Taiwan flour mills purchased a total of 97,200 MT of wheat in a tender from the US overnight.  Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.74 3/4, up 22 cents, Dec 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.89 1/2, up 21 1/4 cents, Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.54 1/4, up 33 3/4 cents, Dec 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.67 3/4, up 33 cents, Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $6.78 1/4, up 9 cents, Dec 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.04 1/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

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Markets

August 15, 2026

Corn Followed Wheat Higher on Friday

Corn futures rounded out the week in rally mode, as contracts were up 5 to 11 ¼ cents across the board on Friday September rallied 20 cents on the week with December up 21 ¼ cents. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was up 11 3/4 cents at $4.30. Continued spillover support from a wheat-led rally on rising Black Sea tensions has helped to extend corn’s bounce into the weekend. Weekly CFTC data tallied managed money spec traders in corn futures and options at a net long of 166,770 contracts by 8/11. That was a 15,176 contracts reduction on the week, mainly coming from new short interest. Export Sales data has old crop corn sales at 87.503 MMT, which is 104% of the USDA number and ahead of the last few years’ pace. Accumulated shipments are 80.066 MMT, or 95% of the USDA export projection. New crop corn sales are now down 23.5% below the same period last year at 10.575 MMT.  Sep 26 Corn  closed at $4.59, up 11 cents, Nearby Cash  was $4.30, up 11 3/4 cents, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $4.83 1/4, up 11 1/4 cents, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $4.99, up 11 1/4 c

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Energies

August 15, 2026

Crude Prices Higher as Iran Continues to Disrupt Vessel Traffic in Strait of Hormuz

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Friday closed up +1.15 (+1.42%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0561 (+1.79%). Crude oil saw support Friday after reports that Iran on Thursday night attacked two Abu Dhabi oil vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.  Those attacks suggested that Iran intends to continue threatening vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to impose long-term control over the Strait, gaining a strong geopolitical lever and possibly collecting lucrative tolls down the road.  However, oil prices on Friday were still down from Tuesday's 2-week high as the Trump administration pivots to economic pressure rather than fresh US military attacks to try to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the administration will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran that "have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of a country." The economic measures would add to the current US naval blockade of Iranian ports.  There have been no signs of progress toward a US-Iran agreement to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military spokesperson said Thursday that no ship can safely pass the Strait of Hormuz without Iran's authorization and supervision and that President Trump's claims of control over the Strait are "nothing more than lies." The Iranian statement was in response to President Trump's comment late Tuesday that the US has "total control over the Hormuz Strait" and that "we own it."  Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains slow, tightening global crude supplies and boosting oil prices.  Energy Aspects said on Monday that only an average of five vessels are transiting through the Strait, down from 14 ships a day seen after the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding in June. In a supportive factor, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, released on Wednesday, that the global oil supply deficit will worsen, even as oil demand is taking a hit from the war and high prices.  The IEA said global oil inventories will fall in Q3 at twice the previously estimated rate because of ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war. Crude prices have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.  Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second-highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates averaged 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on August 2 approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September.  The group has now restored all of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  The production increases by OPEC+ might prove difficult to achieve amid renewed US-Iran military attacks in the region.  OPEC's July crude production rose by +1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd.  Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -0.7% w/w to 119.28 million bbl in the week ended August 7. Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories rose by 17.4 million bbl, the largest increase in more than three years.  The increase was mainly due to a sharp drop in US crude oil exports.  Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell by -968,000 barrels, slightly less than the expected -1.15 million bbl decline. Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of Aug 7 were -1.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -5.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending Aug 7 rose +0.01% w/w to 13.805 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in November 2025. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 14 rose by +1 to a 1.25-year high of 455 rigs.

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Energies

August 15, 2026

Nat-Gas Prices Move Higher on Warm US Forecasts

September Nymex natural gas (NGU26) on Friday closed up +0.006 (+0.22%). Nat-gas prices closed higher on Friday as forecasts indicated warm US weather in the final weeks of August, which would boost nat-gas demand from utilities to meet increased air-conditioning demand.  Commodity Weather Group is forecasting above-normal temperatures across the South in particular through the end of August.  Vaisala is forecasting above-normal temperatures for the West for Aug 22-26.  As a bearish factor, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday projected that US nat-gas storage levels will swell to 3,985 bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average.  US nat-gas inventories are currently +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, a sign of robust supplies.  Nat-gas prices have some negative carryover from last Tuesday when Energy Transfer announced that the Hugh Brinson pipeline will be able to operate at its full transportation capacity of 1.5 bcf/day by September 1, allowing more gas supplies to flow from the Permian Basin to the US benchmark Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, boosting US domestic supplies.  A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand.  US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 114.4 bcf/day (+4.0% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 81.6 bcf/day (+1.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 18.1 bcf/day (-0.9% w/w), according to BNEF. As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 8 rose +7.0% y/y to 99,864 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending August 1 rose +2.3% y/y to 4,357,109 GWh. Thursday's bearish weekly EIA report showed a +36 bcf increase in US nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 7, larger than market expectations of +31 bcf and the 5-year weekly average of +33 bcf.  As of August 7, nat-gas inventories were down -1.0% y/y and +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of August 9, gas storage in Europe was 59% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 76% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended August 14 rose by +4 to 128 rigs, modestly below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Wheat Soars as Black Sea Tensions Escalate

Wheat prices climbed more than 3% to around $6.70 a bushel on Friday, reaching a three-week high and bringing weekly gains to over 5%, the strongest performance since mid-July. The rally followed reports of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian Baltic port and Moscow’s rejection of a proposed Black Sea truce, reviving concerns over grain export disruptions. Ukraine’s military said it targeted a gas condensate processing facility at Ust-Luga, raising fresh worries about the security of Russia’s export infrastructure despite no reported damage to grain facilities. Earlier in the week, Ukrainian authorities had reportedly proposed halting attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, but Russia rejected the idea of a ceasefire. The risks are significant for global wheat supplies, as Russia and Ukraine are expected to account for nearly 30% of world wheat exports in the 2026/27 season.

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Energies

August 14, 2026

Crude Extends Gains to 5% This Week

Crude oil rose to $81.8 a barrel on Friday, gaining nearly 5% this week as the US increased economic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would impose unprecedented economic measures while maintaining its naval blockade of Iranian ports, with further announcements expected next week. The International Energy Agency also warned of a deeper global supply deficit, forecasting the widest shortfall in 2026 in five years. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have yet to reach an agreement on reopening Hormuz, despite earlier optimism that a deal was close. US officials said American forces are increasing their ability to escort vessels through the strait, although shipping remains risky, with some tankers switching off transponders. In the Red Sea, Iran-backed Houthi militants also targeted Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery. Meanwhile, additional Middle Eastern crude is expected to reach the US, offering some relief to low inventories.

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Metals

August 14, 2026

Silver Rises More than 2% This Week

Silver rebounded to around $65 an ounce on Friday after falling 1.4% in the previous session, bringing its weekly gain to more than 2%. Softer-than-expected US inflation data suggested that the impact of energy-price shocks linked to the Iran conflict eased in July, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive monetary stance. Investors will now focus on upcoming US employment data and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium later this month. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East could push energy prices higher and revive inflation concerns, creating uncertainty for precious metals. Beyond monetary policy and geopolitical developments, silver continues to benefit from strong industrial demand, particularly from solar-panel production and investment in electricity grids. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes.

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Metals

August 14, 2026

Gold Extends Gains for 2nd Week

Gold rose above $4,380 an ounce on Friday, recovering from earlier losses and securing a second consecutive weekly gain as investors assessed the outlook for US monetary policy. Recent US CPI and PPI data showed inflation pressures remaining contained, suggesting that the impact of higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict eased in July and reducing expectations of an aggressive Federal Reserve stance. Markets now see roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate hike in September, although upcoming employment data and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium could influence expectations. Geopolitical risks remain another key factor, as renewed tensions could push energy prices higher and revive inflation concerns. Meanwhile, strong central-bank demand continues to support gold, with China adding around 20 tonnes to its reserves in July, marking its 21st consecutive month of purchases.

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Indonesia: Policy continuity supports Rupiah – ING

ING’s Lynn Song expects Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% this week, prioritizing Rupiah stability while avoiding an immediate hike. The report highlights BI’s growing reliance on non-rate tools such as SRBI yields and FX intervention. Leadership transition at BI is seen reducing the likelihood of an August move, with continuity the key message. BI seen holding benchmark rate steady "We expect Bank Indonesia to hold the benchmark rate at 5.75% on Wednesday." "BI’s unexpected July hold showed that policymakers are increasingly balancing rupiah stability against the need to support growth." "While exchange-rate stability remains the main priority, BI appears more willing to use non-rate tools, including Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI) yields and FX intervention, rather than raising borrowing costs immediately." "The ongoing BI leadership transition also lowers the probability of an August move, as Acting Governor Destry Damayanti is likely to use her first meeting to signal continuity rather than deliver a surprise hike."

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Forex Trading

August 14, 2026

British Pound advances as weak US sales deepen USD slide

GBP/USD edges up as weak US Retail Sales pressure Dollar. Consumer sentiment drops, reinforcing Fed hold bets for September. UK GDP strength shifts focus to inflation and jobs data. The Pound Sterling rises by some 0.40% on Friday as a batch of US data justifies the Fed's dovish approach, with consumer sentiment deteriorating while the disinflation process improved. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3545 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3482. GBP/USD climbs as soft US spending and sentiment boost Fed hold bets In the week, GBP/USD is poised to finish the week in the green. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against six currencies, is down 0.40% to 99.54, set to end near weekly lows as traders priced out Fed interest rate hikes. US July Retail Sales snapped nine months of straight gains, declining 0.6%, below forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Sales in the control group, used in the calculation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), dropped as well by -0.4%, after registering a 0.4% growth in June, according to the US Commerce Department. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, in its preliminary August reading, deteriorated as households remained concerned about elevated prices. The index fell from 55.2 in July to 51.0, snapping two straight months of improvement. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, while expectations for 5 years remained unchanged at 3.3%. After the data, money markets expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged, with odds at 70% and the chance of a rate hike at 30%, as depicted by Prime Terminal. In the UK, the weekly economic schedule was anaemic, except for the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which showed that the economy expanded at a 0.3% pace in June, the strongest among G7 developed countries. Next week, the UK schedule will feature inflation and employment data, as well as Retail Sales. In the US, housing data, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, jobless claims and Flash PMIs. GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook GBP/USD daily chart In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3549, extending its recovery above the key simple moving averages cluster around 1.3374 and former trend-line caps at 1.3423 and 1.3508, which now underpin the bullish near-term bias. The pair holds comfortably over these reclaimed supports while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 63.9 leans toward overbought territory, suggesting upward momentum remains constructive but increasingly stretched. On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent breakout area near 1.3508, followed by the former downward resistance trend-line level at 1.3423 and the triple simple moving average region around 1.3374, with an additional structural floor at 1.3342 reinforcing the broader base. On the topside, the rising support trend line turned barrier at 1.3590 marks the next resistance to beat; a sustained move above this level would open the door to further gains, while failure to clear it may trigger a corrective pullback toward the 1.3508 zone.

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Japanese Yen: Policy risks support gains against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret observe USD/JPY trading near 159, with modest Japanese Yen (JPY) gains offering reassurance to the Ministry of Finance (MoF) after recent weakness. They highlight material efforts to counter Yen depreciation via coordinated Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed) actions. With BoJ considering a possible hike in the fall and Q2 GDP due next week, they flag policy commentary as key, seeing resistance above 159.50 and support just above 158.50. MoF reassurance and BoJ hike risk "The yen is up a modest 0.2% vs. the USD, trading in tandem with the EUR while showing relative underperformance against most of the G10 currencies." "The modest gains are likely providing considerable reassurance to key officials at the Ministry of Finance, given ongoing concerns about the yen’s downward trajectory." "Efforts to push back against JPY weakness have been material, with coordinated action from both the BoJ (on behalf of the MoF) and the Fed (on behalf of the US Treasury)." "The BoJ outlook remains critical as policymakers consider the possibility of a hike this fall. Near-term domestic risk lies with the release of Q2 GDP data early next week, and we remain attentive to policymakers’ comments on their plans for near-term tightening." "For USD/JPY, we see resistance above 159.50 and support just above 158.50."

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Markets

August 14, 2026

SanDisk Gains 40% in Just Two Weeks

Shares in the US storage manufacturer SanDisk (SNDK.US) have risen by over 40 per cent over the past two weeks. This sharp rise is the result of growing optimism on Wall Street, fuelled by the company’s new long-term financial forecasts and strategic changes to its business model, which are designed to reduce the industry’s historical cyclicality and fully capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom. SanDisk’s share price rose by nearly 6.5% today alone, extending the 12% rally from the previous trading session. The immediate catalyst for the rise was Investor Day, during which the management presented its targets for 2028–2030. Key drivers of growth Ambitious long-term forecasts: SanDisk expects annual revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens between 2028 and 2030. The company also expects to maintain its gross margin (non-GAAP) at around 80 per cent. New Business Model (NBM): The company is moving away from short-term orders in favour of multi-year contracts with data centre operators. SanDisk has entered into agreements worth at least US$93.9 billion, which secure minimum prices and guarantee revenue stability. In the 2027 financial year, around half of production is expected to be sold under these contracts. Support from Wall Street: Bank of America has maintained its ‘Buy’ recommendation with a target price of US$2,500. Analysts emphasise that the market continues to be too cautious in its assessment of the sustainability of current profits, which are being driven by growing demand for memory used in artificial intelligence. Development of HBF technology: SanDisk, in collaboration with South Korea’s SK hynix, is developing the High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) standard. The new technology is intended to bridge the gap in the market between expensive HBM memory and high-capacity NAND memory, meeting the growing demands of data centres. The technical situation on the chart SanDisk’s rebound from around the $1,000 support level was extremely sharp, propelling the share price above key moving averages. From a technical analysis perspective, it is worth noting that SanDisk shares are currently testing an important resistance level marked by the 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band on the 22-day moving average – which is roughly the average number of trading days in a month. Breaking through this resistance level could pave the way for further gains and a return towards all-time highs; however, it is worth bearing in mind that the memory sector remains sensitive to global supply and the actions of competitors. The stabilising effect of long-term contracts will now be crucial for the company’s future share price.

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Forex Trading

August 14, 2026

Euro climbs as fading Fed hike expectations pressure US Dollar

EUR/USD rallies to a two-month high as softer US data weighs on the US Dollar. Markets price a 70% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged next month. Markets expect the ECB to deliver its second rate hike of the year in September. EUR/USD rallies on Friday, erasing all the losses recorded earlier this week as broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (USD) lifts the Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1580 near its highest level since June 17. The US Dollar weakens as the latest batch of US economic data tempers expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.50, down 0.47% on the day. US Retail Sales fell by 0.6% in July, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and reversing the previous month’s 0.2% gain. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan (UoM) showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2, while the Consumer Expectations Index dropped to 50.6 from 55.4. The data follows this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which showed that price pressures eased for a second consecutive month, suggesting that the inflationary impact of the recent energy shock is fading. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see around a 70% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of an increase. However, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keeps Oil prices elevated. The Michigan survey’s one-year inflation expectation edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the five-year measure held steady at 3.3%. On the Euro side, markets widely expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates in September, which would mark its second hike this year. Economists at Commerzbank expect the ECB’s September move to bring the deposit rate to 2.5%, noting that at this level “a level would be reached that Governing Council members view as the upper limit of the neutral interest rate—one that neither stimulates nor slows the economy and leads to medium-term inflation.” Looking further ahead, Commerzbank argues that “toward the end of 2027, the ECB is likely to lower interest rates again,” as “inflation should gradually decline over the course of the coming year and come close to reaching the inflation target.”

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Gold: Upside seen as Fed hike bets fade – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold has rallied to its highest level since early June as markets scale back expectations for further Fed rate hikes. He highlights reduced implied tightening in Fed Funds futures, a lower probability of a September hike, and renewed ETF inflows, arguing that Gold retains upside potential even after a brief pullback. Lower Fed expectations support bullion "The gold price rose at times yesterday to USD 4,450 per troy ounce, its highest level since early June. Since the start of the month, the gold price has risen by up to 10%. This has been driven by a steady reversal of the excessive expectations regarding Fed interest rate hikes." "At the end of July, Fed Funds futures were still pricing in a year-end Fed rate of 4%. The figure currently stands at 3.86%. This means that 14 basis points of previously expected rate hikes have been priced out of the market." "As we expect the Fed not to raise interest rates, the gold price therefore still has further upside potential. The fact that this will not happen in a straight line is illustrated by the price fall since yesterday to USD 4,320 per troy ounce. Another positive factor for the price of gold is the renewed buying interest from ETF investors." "According to Bloomberg data, these investors have been buying gold over the past six trading days. This is the longest period of uninterrupted ETF inflows since April. The inflows total almost 21 tons."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Federal Reserve: Labour strength supports further hikes – Nordea

Nordea analysts Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich argue that the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver three more rate hikes over coming quarters to bring inflation back to target. They highlight falling unemployment, constrained labour supply and rising core PCE and service price inflation as key drivers. The authors stress that wage pressures and higher goods prices could justify additional policy firming. Fed path tied to labour and inflation "But at the end of the day, the interest rate decision will come down to unemployment and inflation." "Perhaps even more tellingly from the June-meeting minutes; in the case of a stable labour market and still-elevated inflation, “almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted”." "If government employment turns around, job growth could easily become more than sufficient to push unemployment lower, especially given the weak growth in the labour supply." "All in all, we see reason to expect the stable — if not strengthening — labour market that FOMC members had in mind in their scenario." "We could even be heading for higher wage pressure and stronger service price inflation."

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Markets

August 14, 2026

S&P 500 Holds Recent Rise

US stock indices were little changed on Friday as optimism from recent tech earnings weighed against macroeconomic risks. The S&P 500 was flat near its record high, while the Nasdaq 100 and Dow also hovered with little movement. Chip producers extended their strong gains from earlier in the week, with Sandisk adding more than 5% following its 14% surge yesterday, while Micron jumped 4% on bullish recommendations from analysts and brokers. The fresh wave of long positions on AI infrastructure were also underpinned by signals of more spending by hyperscalers, with both OpenAI and Anthropic aiming for IPOs this year, while the latter moved to acquire Decart. Still, inflationary risks maintained some bets that the Federal Reserve may raise rates this year, with President Trump stating economic pressure on Iran will remain for longer, halting oil exports from the region. Industrials and banks continued to underperform. Also, Applied Materials dropped 5% despite beating forecast estimates.

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Forex Trading

August 14, 2026

US Dollar Approaches 2-Month Low

The US dollar index fell past 99.6 on Friday, approaching the two-month low of 95.53 on August 7th as the latest economic data limited positions on a Federal Reserve rate hike. The retail sales control group unexpectedly dropped in July, challenging the view of sharp resilience from US consumers, even though volatile seasonal effects distort the reading. The results were released after both producer and consumer inflation softened in the period, seemingly pausing the urgency for the Fed to deliver a rate hike in their September meeting. Still, foreign funds remained relatively underweight on long-dated US Treasury bonds compared to earlier this year on concerns that high price indices and Fed complacency on inflation raised could lift inflation in the longer term. With the pressure on the currency, the DXY hovered close to its bottom after the US Treasury completed its joint intervention on the foreign exchange market with Tokyo to support the yen.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Wall Street Slows Down Ahead of the End of a Successful Week

The main US stock market indices have opened Friday’s session amid mixed sentiment, following Thursday’s new all-time high set by the S&P 500. Early trading has seen the S&P 500 rise slightly by 0.03 per cent and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.18 per cent, whilst the Dow Jones is down by around 0.1 per cent. The main factor driving today’s markets is the deeply disappointing US retail sales data for July. This indicator fell unexpectedly by 0.6 per cent month-on-month, against a forecast of a 0.1 per cent rise, raising legitimate concerns amongst investors about the actual state of the US consumer. In addition, the markets continue to be affected by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This is due to the US’s announcement of unprecedented economic isolation of Iran and the indefinite continuation of the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. By sector, the Dow Jones index is led by the communications services sector, up 0.97 per cent, and the energy sector, up 0.57 per cent. The discretionary goods sector is performing the worst, with a fall of 0.73 per cent, whilst industrial companies and those in the healthcare sector are also seeing relatively modest declines. Company information Reddit’s shares are up 12% following the news that the company will join the prestigious S&P 500 index on 18 August, replacing AvalonBay Communities. Applied Materials is down by more than 3 per cent, as the company’s quarterly results in its key semiconductor systems division fell short of investors’ high expectations. Meanwhile, Fox Corporation shares are up by around 4% following an upgrade in their rating by JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, against the backdrop of the momentum surrounding the acquisition of the Roku platform. SanDisk is also continuing to post strong gains (+4.27%), following an upgrade to ‘overweight’ by JPMorgan due to the massive demand for NAND flash memory driven by the growth of AI. SpaceX is also making headlines in the tech sector, having finalised a massive $60 billion takeover of the start-up Cursor in order to compete more effectively with the giants in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence sector.

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Gold: Fed pause keeps systematic demand supported – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) net long positioning in Gold is becoming more entrenched as discretionary demand improves. A Fed likely to remain on hold should help keep the precious metal supported at the upper end of its range, while nearby CTA triggers are expected to drive only limited position changes. Silver also stands out for near-term systematic flows, with a break above $66.80/oz likely to attract further buying. CTA long positioning gains firmer support "CTA net long positioning in gold is becoming more entrenched alongside renewed discretionary appetite." "A Fed likely to remain on hold amid weaker economic data, and despite upside in energy prices, is likely to see the yellow metal well-supported in the higher range." "Nearest CTA triggers on both sides are only likely to catalyze minimal shifts in positioning, highlighting a growing support for systematic positions." "Silver continues to stand out for near-term CTA flows in the precious complex, with prices above $66.80/oz likely to see further buying." "Furthermore, when looking at pricing simulations, CTAs are likely to add another 2-5% of historic max length under all pricing scenarios into next week."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ policy story having little effect – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that despite sharp moves in Japanese money markets, the Japanese Yen is not finding lasting support. Markets now price a high probability of a Bank of Japan hike in September, narrowing US–Japan swap differentials, yet USD/JPY remains elevated as carry trades persist. He sees rising risks for Yen funding and expects USD/JPY could fall below 158 if Fed rates stay unchanged. BoJ tightening odds and carry risks "Despite some sharp moves in Japanese money markets this week, the yen is failing to find any lasting support. Here, the big story is that the Japanese government might be more tolerant of a faster tightening cycle by the Bank of Japan." "Markets now price close to a 75% chance that the BoJ hikes 25bp in September. That has seen two-year US:Japan swap differentials narrow nearly 40bp since mid-July." "That should be weighing on USD/JPY. The fact that it is not may owe to benign conditions that continue to favour the yen-funded carry trade." "That said, the risks to funding in yen are squarely increasing, and if we are right with our call for unchanged Fed rates in September, USD/JPY could well be trading back below 158." "And to play independent yen strength in the interim, expect a lot more focus on short CHF/JPY positions."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

European Central Bank: Inflation keeps three rate hikes in play – Nordea

Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver three additional 25bp rate hikes, taking the deposit rate to 3%. They see gradually building inflation pressures from earlier energy price rises, strained supply chains, solid Euro-area growth and low unemployment. The authors note wide risks around the rate path, driven by Middle East developments and energy-market disruptions. ECB seen extending hiking cycle "The ECB’s message at the July meeting was still in line with further rate hikes to come." "We continue to expect three more 25bp increases, taking the deposit rate to 3%, but revised the expected path of these hikes last month from consecutive to quarterly moves." "Our updated baseline assumes 25bp rate hikes in September, December and March 2027." "A quick and durable peace in the Middle East could reduce the pressure on the ECB to hike further, while a more notable escalation and longer-lasting disruption to energy markets could lead to faster and potentially more rate increases." "Even with a slower ECB hiking pace, we still see room especially for longer bond yields to climb, supported by ample bond supply, Eurosystem reductions in bond holdings and higher inflation-risk premia."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Norwegian Krone: Dovish turn risks NOK appeal – Societe Generale

Societe Generale notes Norway’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% and softened its hawkish tone. The bank still anticipates one further rate increase, but removed explicit guidance for a near-term hike. With new forecasts due in September, the report warns that a more dovish stance could reduce the attractiveness of the Krone for investors. Norges Bank softens hawkish guidance "Norway’s central bank kept rates on hold at 4.25% but toned down the hawkish language. It still sees one rate increase but there is no urgency." "The explicit guidance for a rate hike "at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings" was dropped from the statement and replaced with the following: “It may thus still become necessary to raise the policy rate”. “Inflation has slowed and been lower than projected by the bank this summer." "It is still judged too high and it is too early to conclude that the inflation outlook has changed materially. New forecast will be published in September but a dovish turn could potentially diminish the appeal of the krone." "The AUD and CAD lead gains and the NOK is the only currency where the 2y UST/NGB spread has widened (+4.4bp), choking off tactical support for the krone."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

US Dollar: Lower short-term yields weigh on the Greenback – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) is trading on a softer footing as Fed rate hike expectations are scaled back following weaker labour data and a mixed United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Short-term US yields are declining, yet the Dollar index still holds above its 200-day moving average. Strong US equities, especially AI-related tech stocks, and robust S&P 500 earnings are providing offsetting support. Dollar soft as Fed repricing continues "The US dollar has continued to trade on a softer footing this week encouraged by the scaling back of Fed rate hike expectations." "The slowdown in private employment and wage growth in recent months alongside limited evidence of higher energy prices spilling over into core inflation since the US-Iran conflict started is providing more leeway for the Fed to leave rates on hold." "As a result, the Fed is likely to place less weight on the upside inflation surprise in July." "The ongoing decline in short-term US rates has been providing a headwind for the US dollar performance this month but has not yet been sufficient to trigger another leg lower after the sell-off at the end of last month." "The dollar index continues to trade above support from the 200-day moving average at around 99.20."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Oil: War-driven price effects and inflation – UBS

UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how the Gulf war has lifted Oil prices and pushed consumer price inflation above target in major economies. He notes that Energy has a relatively small direct weight in US and EU consumer baskets, but its indirect impact via transport and production is significant. Donovan highlights the complexity of isolating war-related price effects from overall inflation. War impact on global oil inflation "The Gulf war has pushed up oil prices and increased consumer price inflation around the world—but by how much?" "“Energy” (including non-oil energy) is just over 7% of the US consumer price basket. In the EU, it is almost 11%. Core inflation “excluding food and energy” does not exclude all the effects of energy (or, indeed, food). Energy is embedded in things like airfares and delivery costs." "Measuring an economy’s oil consumption also does not help. If a good is manufactured in China and sold in Europe, Europe is effectively importing the oil used in the manufacturing and transport processes—over and above direct domestic oil consumption." "Just focusing on crude oil prices misses the rise of refined oil prices, as Gulf refining capacity has been damaged. Since February, the crude oil futures price has risen 26%, but US diesel prices are almost 50% higher. China’s vehicle energy prices are up only 5%, meaning that the oil cost embedded in US imports from China are likely less than the oil costs embedded in US production." "Stripping away the price of war from consumer inflation is therefore very complex. However, for major economies, the price consequences of the war are the dominant reason inflation is currently above target."

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Baltic Dry Index Rebounds on Friday, Records Weekly Drop

The Baltic dry index increased 0.7% to 2,863 on Friday, recovering after four consecutive sessions of losses. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes, including iron ore and coal, rose 1.5% to 4,538. Also, the supramax index went up 0.6% to 1,622, its highest since July 28. On the other hand, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, decreased 1.5% to 2,228. For the week, the Baltic dry index fell 7.3%.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

TSX Futures Edge Lower on Mideast Tensions

Futures tracking Canadian stocks edged lower on Friday amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East. The US threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, reviving concerns about disruptions to crude supplies from the region. Oil prices moved higher, fueling inflationary pressures and weighing on financials and other credit-sensitive shares. Meanwhile, gold prices rebounded after earlier losses, lending support to mining stocks. On the earnings front, Bird Construction beat second-quarter profit estimates, prompting at least three brokerages to raise their price targets on the stock. Air Canada’s revenue for September and October is likely to reach records for the two months as more premium travelers avoid the heat and summer crowds in Europe and Japan, according to a senior executive. Canadian Tire beat estimates for both EPS and revenue in the second quarter. Onex said its second quarter showed progress toward several strategic goals.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Trade of The Day – WHEAT

Facts Chicago wheat futures (WHEAT) are rising for a third consecutive session and have gained around 15% since the end of June. Ukraine’s grain exports fell 75% year-on-year in the first part of August. S&P Global Energy sees continued upside risk for wheat prices amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is disrupting exports through the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports. Russian grain exports in August are expected to amount to less than half of the five-year average. According to Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi, if the ports remain closed, around 30 million tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural exports may fail to reach the global market. Alternative export routes are currently unable to fully replace the volumes normally shipped through Black Sea ports. Recommendation Long WHEAT at market price Take Profit: 704 Stop Loss: 627 Opinion The wheat market is currently facing several sources of supply risk, with the most significant concentrated around the Black Sea. Ukrainian attempts to de-escalate tensions may periodically trigger corrections, but at this stage they do not change the fundamental picture. For the wheat market, actual export flows, port and vessel availability, and freight costs remain key. Weather risks are also emerging alongside geopolitical pressures, with Russia and Ukraine recently intensifying attacks on grain infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea region. Another global weather factor that could support wheat prices this year is an exceptionally strong El Niño, which is increasing uncertainty over future harvests. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports. At the same time, three major terminals in Novorossiysk suspended operations following a drone attack, while no vessels entered Ukraine’s Greater Odesa ports in August. Ukrainian grain exports fell 75% year-on-year in the first part of the month, while Russian shipments in August are expected to amount to less than half of the five-year average. These figures cover the broader grain market rather than wheat alone, but their scale illustrates the extent of the disruption to exports from the region. The timing is particularly important. Black Sea wheat is typically among the cheapest sources of grain on the global market at this point in the year, meaning that the disruptions are occurring precisely when Russian and Ukrainian supply would normally play a major role in international trade. Importers are already responding. Indonesia, the world’s second-largest wheat importer, has purchased Australian wheat for September and October delivery. Other buyers in Southeast Asia have also turned to Australian wheat, while Bangladesh has sought offers from Romania. Inquiries have also been directed toward North America. If this trend persists, part of global demand could shift toward more expensive sources of supply, while improving the relative competitiveness of U.S. wheat. Freight costs are another important signal. The cost of August shipments from Ukraine to Indonesia has risen from around $70 to almost $90 per tonne, yet charterers are still struggling to find shipowners willing to enter the conflict-affected region. Alternative rail and port routes may alleviate some of the pressure, but they cannot replace the capacity of Black Sea ports. I view Ukraine’s attempts to de-escalate the situation primarily as a source of short-term volatility. Reports of a possible halt to reciprocal attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea were enough for wheat futures to give back earlier gains. However, unless political statements are followed by an actual resumption of shipping and exports, it is difficult to argue that the geopolitical risk premium can be sustainably removed from wheat prices. A second argument supporting higher prices comes from weather conditions in Europe. Persistent drought and high temperatures are increasing the risk of disruption to autumn planting for the 2027 harvest. Low soil moisture is becoming a concern for winter wheat planting. In Bavaria, rainfall since the beginning of April is at its lowest level since 2015, while some longer-term forecasts point to continued dry conditions across northern France, Germany and Poland. With the current soil-moisture deficit, the risk is increasingly extending to next year’s production potential. From the perspective of CBOT wheat futures, the combination of these two factors is important. In the short term, grain availability from one of the world’s most important export regions is constrained, while risks are simultaneously emerging for the next European growing season. Chicago wheat futures have already gained around 15% since the end of June, so corrections should be expected, particularly following reports confirming any potential de-escalation of the conflict. In the base-case scenario, however, a further rise in CBOT Wheat futures from current levels appears likely. The main factors supporting this view are deteriorating physical availability of Black Sea wheat, rising transportation costs and the first signs of import demand being redirected toward alternative suppliers. Weather risks in Europe provide an additional argument and may become increasingly important as the winter wheat planting season approaches. The main risk to this scenario is an effective de-escalation in the Black Sea. Until an improvement becomes visible in actual grain flows, the balance of risks for CBOT Wheat remains tilted toward higher prices. I recommend taking a long position in WHEAT with a target price of 704 cents per bushel and a stop-loss order at 627 cents per bushel, with both levels determined using price-action methodology. WHEAT chart (D1 interval) Source: xStation5 This recommendation is based on fundamental analysis of the wheat market and information obtained from market commentary. The target levels were determined using Price Action analysis. Supporting charts Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: EU Commission, Coceral, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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Energies

August 14, 2026

WTI Oil rebounds as supply tensions overshadow demand concerns

WTI Oil rises 0.40% on Friday after two days of correction, supported by persistent concerns over energy supply disruptions. Iran says it is not holding discussions with the US over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Demand concerns cap the upside in Oil prices following further downward revisions to global consumption forecasts. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil rebounds on Friday and trades around $80.80 at the time of writing, up 0.40% on the day. Oil prices recover some of their losses after two days of correction as investors remain concerned about energy supply disruptions in the Middle East. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to support prices. Commodity vessel traffic picks up slightly on Thursday but remains well below levels seen before the conflict. According to Kpler data cited by Reuters, the number of transits remains below the daily average of 12 recorded so far in August, compared with around 130 to 140 vessels per day before the war. Supply risks also remain elevated around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Together with the Strait of Hormuz, these two waterways account for around 27% of global energy supply, maintaining a significant risk premium in Oil markets as long as navigation remains severely disrupted. On the diplomatic front, Iran says it is not engaged in any discussions with the United States (US) about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, however, says it is in the final stages of talks with Oman over the collective management of navigation through the strategic waterway. However, concerns about global demand could limit WTI's upside potential. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowers its forecast for global Oil demand growth this year to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd), from 780,000 previously, marking a fourth consecutive downward revision. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also trims its demand outlook, warning that prolonged conflicts and elevated prices are beginning to weigh on consumption. WTI Oil therefore remains caught between opposing forces. Persistent supply risks in the Middle East support prices in the short term, while the deteriorating global demand outlook could limit a stronger recovery. Oil volatility persists as Hormuz disruption drives inventories toward historic lows Strategists at Rabobank note that since the end of June’s memorandum of understanding, “Brent crude has swung between roughly $72- 102/bbl, following every rumor of a peace deal or renewed escalation,” underscoring the sensitivity of Oil prices to headlines around the Hormuz crisis. They highlight that tanker “transits are still running at roughly 3 to 10 ships a day against 130-140 before the war and would need to recover to ~80 to stabilize energy markets,” even with current diversionary flows routed through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to the Yanbu export terminal and the UAE’s Fujairah oil terminal. At the same time, Rabobank warns that “the ongoing stockpile drawdown has left global inventories heading toward historic lows, especially in refined products,” reinforcing their view that the market remains acutely exposed to further supply shocks. WTI US Oil technical analysis In the one-hour chart, WTI US Oil trades at $80.68, retaining a mildly bearish bias as it remains capped beneath the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $81.18 and the downward resistance trend line now acting as overhead supply near $81.94. Price still holds above the 200-hour SMA at $78.75 and the horizontal floor at $80.00, suggesting a corrective pullback within a broader constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 leans slightly to the downside without signaling oversold conditions. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-hour SMA at $81.18, followed by the trend-line level near $81.94, with stronger barriers aligning at $83.57 and then $84.50. On the downside, initial support is located at the $80.00 horizontal line, ahead of the 200-hour SMA at $78.75, and a sustained break below these levels would likely open the way to a deeper bearish extension in the near term.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

UoM Consumer Sentiment Index set to ease as inflation, labour market worries loom

The Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to ease to 54.5 from 55.2 in July US consumers’ optimism has improved to levels close to those seen before the US-Iran war began. August’s UoM Consumer Sentiment is unlikely to change the view on the Fed’s monetary policy, which is the main USD driver. The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of August’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. The UoM report, which analyses US consumers’ feelings about their personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing plans, is expected to show a moderate decline, yet remain relatively close to levels in January and February, when concerns about Iran’s war and the economic impact of the energy shock were absent. US consumers’ confidence is expected to have ticked down to 54.5 in August from 55.2 in July, as measured by the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index. These numbers would highlight fairly resilient sentiment in the face of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, a deteriorating labour market, and stubbornly high price pressures. Source: University of Michigan The risk on the US Dollar (USD), thus, is skewed to the downside. A positive surprise on August’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is unlikely to change the prevailing view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stand pat on rates in September, while a weak sentiment report might heighten doubts about the momentum of the US economy, pushing Fed rate hikes further back and adding pressure on the Greenback What to expect from August’s UoM Consumer Sentiment Index report? Investors will be attentive to Friday’s data to see how US consumers are responding to the Middle East deadlock and the persistently high prices.US macroeconomic data released earlier this week revealed some moderation in inflation, yet with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) growing at a 3.4% year-over-year rate in July, a whole percentage point above the levels seen in January and February, before the Middle East conflict sent Oil prices surging.If this was not enough, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that net employment contracted unexpectedly in July, highlighting a sharp deterioration of the labour market, which, sooner or later, is highly likely to dent consumers’ confidence. July’s University of Michigan report highlighted a broad-based improvement, although, looking from a wider perspective, the overall sentiment remains well below its historical average. The Director of the Survey of Consumers, Johanne Hsu, noted that “sentiment is 11% below a year ago, reflecting a generally somber view of the economy amid five years of elevated inflation and persistently high prices.” Bearing this in mind, the landscape has not given reasons to contemplate a positive surprise on Friday. Quite the contrary. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices are more than 15% above the levels in early July, when the interviews for last month’s report took place, and the situation in the Middle East remains stalled, pushing energy prices and overall inflation higher.  Inflation expectations for the year ahead eased in July to 4.2% from 4.6% in June, but recent developments might have prompted some recovery in August, adding pressure on the overall sentiment. When will the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index be released, and how could it affect the US Dollar? The University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment Index, together with the Consumer Inflation Expectations survey, on Friday at 14:00 GMT. The market consensus hints at a moderate pullback from July’s reading, although showing levels not far from the 2026 peak. The US Dollar remains weighed by dwindling hopes of Fed rate hikes, although the cautious market mood, amid growing uncertainty about the fate of the US-Iran peace process, has kept the safe-haven Greenback buoyed this week. The USD Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currency peers, has been showing a mild upside bias over the last few days, after finding some support at the 99.45 area.  Bulls, however, have been unable to find acceptance above the 100.00 psychological level at the time of writing. The 4-hour chart highlights a neutral-to-bearish near-term bias, with the Relative Strength Index (14) drifting below the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram marginally in negative territory. This hints at a fading bullish undertone rather than a bearish reversal. Bulls would need a clear break of the 100.00 resistance zone to shift the focus towards a previous support area near 100.45, which capped bulls on July 31, ahead of the July 30 high, a few pips above 101.00. On the downside, Wednesday’s low in the 99.60 region is likely to test bears’ confidence, although the key support area is the mentioned 99.40, the bottom of the last two months’ trading range.

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Banks

August 14, 2026

US Dollar: Looking for a shift in Fedspeak – ING

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that post-CPI summer conditions are suppressing FX volatility and keeping the Dollar broadly stable. They still see scope for a weaker Dollar as market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening look overstated. Upcoming Fedspeak, Jackson Hole and second-tier US data are seen as potential catalysts, while Gulf developments mainly affect relative-value trades. Fed expectations and muted volatility "The post-CPI midsummer environment is understandably weighing on FX vols. We argued yesterday, that this could remain the norm for at least the next couple of weeks. At the same time, we retain a preference for dollar downside, as we still believe market conviction around further tightening by the Federal Reserve is too strong." "For now, Fedspeak offers the clearest potential catalyst for market moves. There is still considerable uncertainty over the message that could emerge from the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium, particularly after a CPI report that leaned dovish without delivering a definitive signal." "Today’s US calendar includes July retail sales, expected at a modest 0.1% month-on-month, and the University of Michigan surveys, which are expected to show little change from July. These second-tier releases would likely need to deliver significant surprises to trigger a meaningful dollar reaction." "Meanwhile, headline fatigue surrounding the Middle East remains elevated. US-Iran negotiations appear to be at a stalemate, but Brent declined yesterday, providing some support for global bonds. The bar for the dollar to rebuild a strong direct relationship with oil prices remains quite high, and the impact of developments in the Gulf may remain more visible in G10 relative-value trades, where pairs such as NOK/SEK and AUD/NZD continue to track the energy story quite closely." "Post-CPI summer trading conditions continue to keep FX volatility subdued, leaving EUR/USD largely anchored. Still, our models are pointing to some short-term undervaluation in the pair, supporting our moderately bullish bias for coming weeks. Gulf headlines remain a marginal factor for FX, more visible in some relative value trades than USD crosses "

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Japanese Yen: Bearish bias within 158.00–160.20 band against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann judge USD/JPY price action as inconclusive intraday, with trading expected between 159.00 and 159.70 after a tight 159.01–159.56 range. Over 1–3 weeks, they keep an upside bias, seeing the pair confined within a narrower 158.00–160.20 range, while longer-term charts suggest the advance can extend as long as it holds above the 21-day EMA near 161.00. Dollar-Yen retains firm underlying tone "24-HOUR VIEW: Subsequent to USD price action on Wednesday, we indicated yesterday that “we are not able to derive much from the price action.” We also indicated that USD “could trade between 158.70 and 159.70.” However, USD traded within a relatively tight range of 159.01/159.56, closing largely unchanged at 159.48 (+0.04%). We are still unable to derive much from the price action. Today, USD could trade between 159.00 and 159.70." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 159.20), when we highlighted that “while the bias for USD is tilted to the upside, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 157.00/160.20.” While USD has been unable to make much headway on the upside, the underlying tone still appears to be firm, and the bias remains tilted to the upside. That said, a narrower range of 158.00/160.20 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Brazilian Real: Election risks threaten Real – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish flags growing election and fiscal risks weighing on Brazilian assets. BRL has underperformed in LatAm, with USD/BRL nearing its 200-day moving average at 5.2042 and Bovespa breaking below its long-term average. A sustained move above the 200-day would target 5.34–5.38, while a Lula fourth term with a divided Congress is seen as the base case. Political risk clouds currency outlook "Election risks weigh on Brazilian assets: The BRL is the main laggard in LatAm this month, with a negative total return of 1.7% contrasting with profits of around 2% for the CLP and MXN." "Our economist Dev Ashish assigns a 65% probability to a base-case scenario in which President Lula secures a fourth term alongside a divided Congress, a combination that could weigh further on the real." "USD/BRL is approaching the 200dma at 5.2042, while the Bovespa has already violated the long-term average after retreating to a seven-month low of 167k." "From a technical standpoint, a sustained break above the 200dma would open 5.34-5.38 in USD/BRL." "This is proof that investors are increasingly repricing election and fiscal risks ahead of the presidential vote, with some fund allocations possibly rotating toward the MXN as a relatively more attractive carry/ politically neutral destination."

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Reddit joins the S&P 500, shares surge 12%. From a niche forum to the heart of Wall Street

Key takeaways Reddit will be added to the S&P 500 on August 18, and its shares rose more than 12% in after-hours trading following the announcement. Reddit’s latest quarterly revenue and earnings per share beat Wall Street expectations, supported by strong performance in its advertising business. With the stock trading at around $178 in pre-market trading, Reddit’s market capitalization stands at more than $33 billion, although its shares traded above $270 last year. Reddit will join the S&P 500 before the opening bell on August 18, replacing AvalonBay Communities. The market reacted decisively: following the announcement, RDDT shares rose 12% in after-hours trading. The inclusion comes after a more challenging few months — at Thursday’s close, the stock was down around 30% year-to-date and remained well below last year’s record high of more than $270. With a market capitalization of approximately $29.5 billion, Reddit is joining the most important U.S. equity index at an interesting point in its development: operating performance remains strong, but investors are paying increasingly close attention to the sustainability of user growth and the impact of AI on the company’s business model. Reddit is joining the S&P 500. Why did the stock react so strongly? Inclusion in the S&P 500 generates demand from passive capital. Index funds and ETFs tracking the benchmark have to add RDDT to their portfolios, meaning that part of the share-price reaction is technical in nature. The scale of this effect depends, among other factors, on the weighting Reddit receives in the index and on positions previously built by active investors anticipating its inclusion. The 12.6% jump therefore does not mean that the market reassessed Reddit’s long-term business prospects by a similar magnitude in a single evening. For the company, this also marks an important milestone in its relatively short history as a publicly traded business. Reddit debuted on the NYSE in March 2024, and speculation about its potential inclusion in the S&P 500 had already surfaced before. In July, however, the available spot went to Ferguson Enterprises. This time, the opportunity arose from Equity Residential’s acquisition of AvalonBay Communities. Once the transaction is completed, the combined company is expected to operate under the name Vivmark Residential and remain in the S&P 500, while Reddit will take the seat vacated by AvalonBay. The timing of RDDT’s inclusion is far removed from the typical image of a company entering a major index at the peak of a stock-market rally. Before the announcement, the shares were down more than 30% since the beginning of 2026, while the company’s market valuation had fallen well below the levels seen last year. The stock has struggled to sustain its upward momentum since 2024. Against this backdrop, investor attention may now shift away from the index inclusion itself and toward whether the earlier sell-off has adequately priced in the risks surrounding user traffic and the structural changes taking place in internet search. Is the path higher now open? That remains to be seen. Reddit’s valuation depends on the quality of future growth The fundamentals give Reddit some arguments to support its elevated valuation. In its latest quarterly report, the company beat Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings per share, with advertising remaining an important source of growth. The platform has a large and highly engaged user base organized around specific interests. From an advertiser’s perspective, this environment can be particularly valuable because the context of a conversation often reveals user intent far more clearly than simply scrolling through a general social-media feed. At a market capitalization of roughly $29.5 billion, however, investors are pricing in further improvement in the business. Potential growth drivers include better monetization of users outside the United States, where revenue per user remains lower, as well as the development of advertising products and the commercial use of Reddit’s data. The more effectively Reddit can convert community activity into revenue without compromising the user experience, the easier it will be to justify a valuation premium over slower-growing internet platforms. Traffic acquisition remains a weaker part of the story. Management has pointed to volatility in traffic and uneven search referrals. This matters particularly for Reddit because, for years, a huge number of users have arrived on the platform through Google while searching for answers to very specific questions. If this channel begins to weaken structurally, direct traffic, the Reddit app and the company’s ability to build habitual platform usage independent of external search engines will become increasingly important. In an internet landscape being reshaped by AI, this is a challenge facing virtually every website built around searchable content. AI is changing the economics of content created on Reddit The development of generative AI adds another layer of complexity. Search engines increasingly provide ready-made answers without requiring users to visit the website where the underlying information originated. For Reddit, this creates a risk of losing some of the users who previously reached the platform through Google. A decline in these visits could reduce available advertising inventory and, at a larger scale, also affect the pace of new user acquisition. Search-traffic volatility is therefore becoming one of the more important metrics to watch in Reddit’s upcoming earnings reports. At the same time, the value of Reddit’s own content library is rising alongside demand from AI models for high-quality, human-generated data. The platform contains well over a decade of discussions covering products, technology, finance, travel and everyday problems. Much of this information is difficult to replicate using traditional websites: it contains first-hand experiences, comparisons, arguments and community reactions. Such material can be valuable both for model training and for the development of AI-powered search. For RDDT’s valuation, the key question will ultimately be how much of the economic value generated by this data Reddit can retain. The company has opportunities to monetize content licensing and partnerships with technology companies, while at the same time needing to protect its own distribution. If users receive answers generated from Reddit discussions without ever visiting the platform, some of the economic value may shift toward the search engine or AI-model provider. The coming quarters should provide a clearer picture of whether Reddit can simultaneously expand its advertising business, increase direct user engagement and monetize the data asset that has become one of the company’s most distinctive resources. Reddit stock chart (D1 interval) Reddit shares have struggled in recent quarters, but they have still delivered an impressive gain of around 350% since the company’s market debut, despite falling more than 40% from the all-time high near $275. Following the company’s inclusion in the S&P 500, passive index funds will now be required to buy Reddit shares. This does not, however, guarantee further gains, as the same funds may also sell RDDT shares in a scenario where the broader market comes under pressure. Joining the S&P 500 is nevertheless a major achievement for Reddit and an important milestone in the company’s development. The next challenge will be remaining in the index over the longer term. To do so, Reddit will likely need to continue optimizing its business model and demonstrate to the market that artificial intelligence does not ultimately pose a material threat to its growth prospects. From a technical perspective, the chart shows a formation resembling a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, with the head near $270 and two local peaks around $225 and $205 per share. An important support area currently lies around $125, reinforced by previous price reactions in this zone. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Euro Area Shows Signs of Resilience as Trade, Employment and Growth Strengthen

Eurozone Employment Inches Up as Expected The number of employed persons in the Euro Area grew by 0.1% from the previous quarter to 176.577 million in the second quarter of 2026, the same pace as the first quarter, and aligned with market expectations, according to a first estimate. It was the bloc's 21st consecutive quarter of employment growth, extending the slow but consistent trend of increasing jobs in the European labor market, even though high energy prices and sluggish productivity led economic headwinds in the period. Job growth remained sharp in Spain (0.5% vs 0.3% in Q1) while net employment for a third period in France. Meanwhile, employment fell for a fifth straight quarter in Germany (-0.1% vs -0.1%). From the previous year, employment growth in the Eurozone was unchanged at 0.5%. Euro Area GDP Growth Unrevised at 0.4% The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, in line with flash data and accelerating from flat growth in the previous quarter, second estimates showed. It marked the bloc's strongest quarterly expansion since the first quarter of 2025, as robust AI-related investment, solid government spending, and one-off factors helped offset the impact of the conflict in Iran and higher energy costs. Among the largest euro area economies, Spain once again led growth, with GDP rising 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the first quarter and above forecasts. The Netherlands expanded by 0.4%, twice the expected pace, while France returned to growth with a 0.2% increase after a 0.1% contraction. Germany and Italy also grew by 0.2%, easing slightly from the previous quarter but exceeding market expectations. Year-over-year, the Eurozone economic growth accelerated to 1% in the second quarter from a revised 0.5% three months earlier, also the same as in the flash estimate. Euro Area Posts Surprise Trade Surplus The Euro Area recorded a trade surplus of €8.6 billion in June 2026, up from €4.8 billion in June 2025 and better than market expectations of a €2.2 billion gap. This was the largest monthly trade surplus since February, as goods exports surged by 14.4% to an over one-year high of €272.5 billion while imports rose at a slower 13.1% to €264 billion. The latest figure represented an improvement of €3.8 billion compared to the same period a year ago, supported primarily by a stronger surplus in chemicals and related products and additional surpluses in other manufactured goods and food and drink, which more than offset the larger energy deficit. The machinery and vehicles surplus also registered a modest improvement

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Forex Trading

August 14, 2026

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY declines to 99.75-99.70 amid receding Fed hike bets

DXY retreats further from a two-week low as signs of cooling inflation temper Fed hike bets. Geopolitical risks and inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices could support the USD. A break below a two-week-old trading range is needed for the case for further depreciation. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, continues to lose ground through the first half of the European session on Friday and retreats further from a two-week high, touched the previous day. The index currently trades around the 99.75 region, down 0.20% for the day, though it seems poised to register modest weekly gains amid mixed cues. Signs of cooling US inflation forced investors to further scale back their expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the US Dollar (USD). However, traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, could help limit the downside for the safe-haven buck. From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so might be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the decline from the July monthly swing high. Moreover, the overnight failure near the trading range hurdle and the subsequent slide favor DXY bears. Furthermore, momentum indicators reinforce this negative outlook. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slipping further below the zero line, hinting at lingering downside pressure on the 4-hour chart. However, it will be prudent to wait for a convincing break below the trading range support near the 99.40 area before positioning for the resumption of the month-to-date declining trend. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-period SMA at 100.35, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open room for a more meaningful recovery. The broader technical setup, however, suggests that rallies are likely to remain shallow while the DXY trades under the said pivotal hurdle. DXY 4-hour chart

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Federal Reserve: RMP pause and QT timing – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks analyze the Federal Reserve’s decision to halt Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) after tapering from $40bn to $10bn per month. They argue the pause reflects soft money market rates and an ample reserve buffer, not imminent Quantitative Tightening (QT), and expect RMP to resume at a reduced pace in November 2026 before any balance sheet changes in 2027. Fed pauses RMP, QT seen distant "Markets may worry that this is the first step on the road back to Quantitative Tightening (QT), but we believe the halt will be temporary and purchases will resume in November to help smooth over money market functioning ahead of year-end." "In the meantime, the Fed will likely hold RMP at zero for a few months until the buffer they have built above the lowest comfortable level of reserves (LCLOR) declines marginally, allowing money market rates to stabilize." "We view the halt to RMP as a pause, not a permanent stop. As such, there are several factors that should help drive the Fed to resume RMP at a $5-10bn/month pace as soon as November" "We do not see the stop to RMP as a signal that the Fed will imminently restart QT. The Fed's implementation instructions still direct the New York Fed to "increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills"."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

British Pound: Growth resilience supports gains against US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the British Pound (GBP) is the best performing major currency in August, with GBP/USD back above 1.3500. The United Kingdom (UK) economy is proving resilient to the energy price shock linked to the US-Iran conflict, with Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1. Strong private consumption, recovering business investment and robust services and IT activity are supporting the currency. UK data and carry back Pound strength "The pound is continuing to perform well this year." "It has been the best performing major currency so far in August with cable rising back above the 1.3500." "The pound has been supported by further evidence yesterday that the UK economy is proving more resilient than expected to the negative energy price shock triggered by the US-Iran conflict." "It was revealed yesterday that the UK economy expanded by 0.4% in Q2 following strong growth of 0.6% in Q1." "After stagnating following the Brexit vote in 2016 until the COVID shock in 2020, business investment has since regained upward momentum providing a tailwind for the UK economy."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

US Dollar: Carry trades supported as Fed seen on hold – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that softer United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and lower US Treasury yields have led markets to scale back expectations of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, limiting US Dollar (USD) upside. Crude Oil stays in the USD80s, and a constructive risk backdrop supports carry trades. However, they warn that higher long-term US yields driven by fiscal and financing pressures remain a key risk. Fed path, yields and carry trade risks "The USD was mixed overnight despite lower US Treasury yields, as softer-than-expected July PPI reinforced expectations that the Fed will remain on hold in September." "Markets now price around a 35% probability of a rate hike next month, down from about 55% before last week's labour market report." "However, the risk of further tightening remains if upcoming inflation and employment data show limited progress on disinflation." "A broadly range-bound USD and a constructive risk backdrop should continue to support carry trades, despite ongoing oil market volatility and persistent FX intervention risks for JPY." "The main threat to this favourable environment is a further rise in long-term US yields, driven by strong AI-related investment demand, persistent fiscal deficits, and continued resilience in US economic growth."

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Wheat Climbs as Black Sea Supply Risks Mount

Wheat prices climbed more than 2% to above $6.60 a bushel on Friday, bringing weekly gains to over 4%, the strongest performance since mid-July. The rally was driven by growing concerns over disruptions to Black Sea exports amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia and Ukraine remain critical to the global wheat market, together accounting for almost 30% of projected world wheat exports in the 2026/27 season, leaving prices particularly vulnerable to prolonged interruptions. Supply concerns intensified after Russia halted grain loadings at its main Black Sea and Azov Sea ports. Operations at all three major terminals in Novorossiysk have now been suspended following Ukrainian drone attacks earlier in the week. The disruptions could force Russia to reduce exports further this month, tightening global availability. However, there were signs of a possible diplomatic opening, with Ukraine reportedly proposing that both sides stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea.

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Energies

August 14, 2026

Brent Rises, Set for Over 5% Weekly Gain

Brent crude rose above $88 a barrel on Friday, gaining more than 5% this week as the US increased economic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would impose unprecedented economic measures while maintaining its naval blockade of Iranian ports, with further announcements expected next week. The International Energy Agency also warned of a deeper global supply deficit, forecasting the widest shortfall in 2026 in five years. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have yet to reach an agreement on reopening Hormuz, despite earlier optimism that a deal was close. US officials said American forces are increasing their ability to escort vessels through the strait, although shipping remains risky, with some tankers switching off transponders. In the Red Sea, Iran-backed Houthi militants also targeted Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery. Meanwhile, additional Middle Eastern crude is expected to reach the US, offering some relief to low inventories.

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Japanese Yen: Shifting rate expectations and currency support – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that Japanese government support for an imminent Bank of Japan rate hike has reinforced market expectations rather than surprised them. Probabilities now favor a hike as early as September, with October fully priced and another move in December possible. These evolving rate expectations, alongside intervention risks, are helping to stabilize the Japanese Yen. BoJ hike odds and JPY stability "Yesterday morning, shortly after we sent out our Daily Currency Briefing, a news ticker reported that the Japanese government had reportedly expressed its support for an imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. On the one hand, this is significant." "While the Bank of Japan is nominally independent, it is obligated to coordinate closely with the government to fulfill its price stability mandate. On the other hand, this merely confirmed what the market had already been increasingly pricing in over the past few days. Consequently, it was not surprising that the JPY did not appreciate more significantly in response to this news." "Since the recent intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan’s last meeting, things have started to shift somewhat." "So it seems that it is not just the fear of further intervention that is currently preventing the market from weakening the JPY more significantly. Expectations are also slowly adjusting and stabilizing the currency." "After the market had long assumed that the key interest rate would remain unchanged in September and would likely not be raised until December, there is now seen to be about a 75% chance that a rate hike could come as early as September. A rate hike in October was already fully priced in as of yesterday, and for December, there is now even the possibility of another rate hike."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI support offsets wider trade gap – Societe Generale

Societe Generale notes India’s headline CPI rose slightly to 4.45% year-on-year in July, backing the RBI’s decision to keep policy unchanged. The central bank has reportedly been active in FX markets as the trade deficit widened. Higher Oil and Gold prices countered dovish Federal Reserve repricing, while non-resident inflows into Indian Government Bonds have helped support the Rupee. RBI activity and bond inflows aid rupee "India headline CPI edged up modestly to 4.45% yoy in July from 4.38% in June, reinforcing the latest decision by the RBI to keep policy on hold." "At the same time, the central bank has reportedly remained active in FX markets as the trade deficit widened to $31.98bn in July from $30.4bn the previous month." "The rebound in both oil and gold prices offset the dovish repricing of Fed policy expectations." "Non-resident investors have ploughed $2.5bn into IGB securities so far in August, helping to support the INR. "

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Australian Dollar: Upside risk intact above support against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD is consolidating intraday between 0.7050 and 0.7075 after a brief spike to 0.7091 failed to build momentum. On a 1–3 week view, they maintain that upside risk persists as long as the Australian Dollar holds above strong support at 0.7025, with a close above 0.7075 opening scope toward 0.7100 and a broader resistance zone at 0.7075/0.7090. Australian Dollar holds constructive bias "24-HOUR VIEW: AUD rose briefly to 0.7091 on Wednesday and then dropped back down. When AUD was at 0.7065 in the early Asian session yesterday, we pointed out that “the brief advance did not result in any increase in upward momentum,” and we held the view that AUD “is likely to trade in a range between 0.7050 and 0.7085.” However, AUD dipped to 0.7044, rebounded to 0.7067 before settling at 0.7060 (-0.04%). The price movements did not lead to any increase in either downward or upward momentum, and we continue to expect AUD to trade in a range, most likely between 0.7050 and 0.7075." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Since early last week (as annotated in the chart below), we have been of the view that the risk for AUD is on the upside. Two days ago (11 Aug, spot at 0.7055), we highlighted that “the upside risk will remain intact as long as AUD holds above 0.7025 (‘strong support’ level).” We also highlighted that “should AUD close above 0.7075, it could continue to rise toward 0.7100.” While upward momentum is starting to slow, only a breach of 0.7025 would indicate that the upside risk has faded."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Brent: Geopolitical premium eases after six-day rally – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that Brent Oil has finally broken a six-day winning streak, with prices pulling back modestly as some geopolitical risk premium is removed. Despite intraday volatility linked to Houthi and Iranian headlines, the bank notes that refined product markets remain tight and that Brent is still significantly above pre-Iran war levels. Risk premium partially unwinds in Oil "Over the last 24 hours, investors have continued to dial back the chances of a Fed rate hike, sending the S&P 500 (+0.65%) to fresh highs. The biggest catalyst was a downside surprise in the US PPI inflation print, while lower oil prices gave the doves an extra tailwind, with Brent crude (-2.15%) finally snapping a six-day winning streak" "The dovish momentum received further help yesterday from lower oil prices, which finally ended their run of gains over the last week. It wasn’t a huge fall, but Brent crude was down -2.15% by the close to $87.07/bbl, ending a run of 6 consecutive daily gains." "Brent did rise from its intraday low of $85.85/bbl after the Houthi-run Saba news agency reported that the Houthis were targeting the Aramco refinery in the Jizan region. And earlier on in the session, Iran’s state-run IRIB cited a joint military command spokesman, who said that no ship could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz without approval." "But overall, in the absence of material news, some of recent run up in geopolitical risk premium was taken out of oil markets, not least given the sizeable recent shipping via Hormuz by shuttle transfers and ships operating without transponders. " "So while crude oil prices are down by over 25% from their spring peak, the decline in refined product prices has been more modest. For perspective, while Brent crude is now +20% above pre-Iran war levels, US wholesale gasoline prices are about +50% higher and European diesel prices are about +60% higher."

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Energies

August 14, 2026

European Gas Near Multi-Week Highs

European natural gas prices rose toward €61 per MWh on Friday, hovering near a more than two-week high, amid persistent concerns over Europe’s gas supply security ahead of winter. The US on Thursday threatened to maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, increasing pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have stalled. The standoff has heightened uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides making competing claims of control over the strategic waterway. The disruption has severely delayed LNG cargoes from Qatar, forcing European buyers to compete aggressively with Asian importers for limited supplies. This is making it harder and more costly for Europe to rebuild gas inventories before winter, with storage facilities currently only 59% full, below historical averages. Meanwhile, heatwaves across Southern and Central Europe have boosted gas-fired power generation to meet cooling demand, diverting supplies from storage. European gas prices have risen over 8% this week.

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening debate supports JPY – Rabobank

Rabobank strategist Elwin de Groot highlights that Japanese policymakers are increasingly focused on achieving the inflation target sustainably and supporting the Japanese Yen. Following recent FX intervention, He argues that exchange-rate management ultimately needs monetary policy backing. With USD/JPY retracing part of its earlier decline, he notes that the case for another Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike is gradually strengthening. BoJ stance underpins Japanese Yen "In Japan, the debate looks even more skewed towards further tightening." "Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has once again stressed the importance of Bank of Japan independence while also emphasising the need to achieve the inflation target sustainably." "Following the recent intervention to support the yen, policymakers are increasingly aware that exchange-rate management ultimately requires support from monetary policy." "As USD/JPY retraces some of its earlier decline, the case for another BoJ hike is gradually strengthening."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

US Dollar: Softer tone with falling yields – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) is trading on a softer footing as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations are scaled back following weaker labour data and a mixed United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Short-term US yields are declining, yet the Dollar index still holds above its 200-day moving average. Dollar soft as Fed repricing continues "The US dollar has continued to trade on a softer footing this week encouraged by the scaling back of Fed rate hike expectations." "The slowdown in private employment and wage growth in recent months alongside limited evidence of higher energy prices spilling over into core inflation since the US-Iran conflict started is providing more leeway for the Fed to leave rates on hold." "As a result, the Fed is likely to place less weight on the upside inflation surprise in July." "The ongoing decline in short-term US rates has been providing a headwind for the US dollar performance this month but has not yet been sufficient to trigger another leg lower after the sell-off at the end of last month." "The dollar index continues to trade above support from the 200-day moving average at around 99.200."

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Forex Trading

August 14, 2026

Chart of the Day – Speculations Around Faster Rate Hikes in Japan — Could USD/JPY Reverse Its Trend?

Key takeaways The BOJ could raise interest rates as early as September, but for the yen, what the central bank does next may be even more important — Reuters sources suggest the entire rate-hike cycle could accelerate. Markets are already reacting: investors are pricing in around an 80% probability of a September rate hike, while the yield on 5-year Japanese government bonds has reached a record high. The yen remains close to 160 per U.S. dollar despite the earlier intervention, and the BOJ’s September meeting could prove to be a key test for the next move in USD/JPY. USDJPY is edging lower today, partly due to a weaker U.S. dollar, although the yen also appears to be supported by reports from Reuters. According to three anonymous sources familiar with the Bank of Japan’s thinking, the BoJ could raise interest rates as early as September 2026. The central bank is also reportedly considering accelerating the pace of monetary tightening from its recent rate of around two hikes per year. The sources pointed to the possibility of a move at the September 17–18 meeting, although the BoJ has not commented on the reports. For the yen, this could represent an important shift in the narrative, as the market may need to consider not only another rate hike but also potentially shorter intervals between subsequent moves. The BoJ’s policy rate currently stands at 1%, its highest level in 31 years, after the central bank left rates unchanged at its July meeting. Markets are pricing in around an 80% probability of a September rate hike, while the yield on 5-year Japanese government bonds has risen to a record high. The yen remains close to 160 per U.S. dollar despite the joint Japan-U.S. intervention in the FX market in July. Why could the BoJ accelerate rate hikes? The main argument in favor of faster monetary tightening is Japan’s increasingly uncomfortable inflation backdrop. Annual wholesale inflation remained around three-year highs in July, while surveys of inflation expectations among households, businesses and economists show readings approaching or exceeding 2%. The exchange rate is particularly important. A weak yen raises the cost of imported energy, commodities and other goods, potentially adding to inflationary pressure across the economy. In July, the Japanese currency fell to its weakest level in around 40 years, and the subsequent rebound was not enough to produce a lasting reversal. With oil prices also elevated, the weak yen has become increasingly relevant to the BoJ’s efforts to control inflation. A change in stance can also be seen in the central bank’s communication. The summary of opinions from the July meeting showed that some BoJ board members favored faster rate hikes to prevent monetary policy from falling behind inflation. Governor Kazuo Ueda has also indicated that the pace of tightening could be accelerated if financial conditions prove too accommodative. What would faster rate hikes mean for the yen? For the yen, the key issue is not necessarily a single September hike, but the potential change in the entire interest-rate path. Japan maintained extremely low borrowing costs for years while U.S. interest rates were considerably higher. This gap increased the attractiveness of strategies involving borrowing or funding positions in yen and investing in higher-yielding assets. If the BoJ does move from roughly two hikes per year toward more frequent tightening, the yield differential between Japanese and foreign assets could begin to narrow more quickly. The bond market suggests investors are already partially pricing in such a scenario: following the Reuters report, the yield on 2-year Japanese government bonds, which is particularly sensitive to BoJ policy expectations, moved higher, while the 5-year yield reached a record high. The prospect of higher Japanese interest rates does not automatically imply sustained yen appreciation. USDJPY also depends on U.S. Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, energy prices and global demand for the dollar. Elevated U.S. bond yields continue to provide the dollar with a relative advantage, while higher oil prices are unfavorable for Japan as a major energy importer. This also helps explain why the joint Japan-U.S. intervention in July failed to produce a lasting change in the exchange rate trend. Intervention can sharply alter short-term market dynamics, but on its own it may struggle to overcome interest-rate differentials and other macroeconomic forces. For the yen’s longer-term direction, the key question may therefore be whether a September hike — if it happens — would be an isolated move or the beginning of a faster BoJ tightening cycle. USDJPY chart (D1, H1) The pair has recovered part of the losses triggered by the intervention, which does not represent a lasting mechanism for shaping free-market forces. USDJPY remains within an upward price channel, and as long as it stays above 155 and the 200-session exponential moving average (EMA200, red line, around 159), the broader uptrend remains the baseline scenario. A renewed decline toward 156 could increase the probability of a trend reversal and cannot be ruled out if the BoJ delivers a meaningful shift in monetary policy. Source: xStation5 On the hourly timeframe, USDJPY remains within a short-term ascending channel. A break below its lower boundary could trigger a 1:1 correction and potentially push the pair toward the 150 area. Source: xStation5 The chart of speculative positioning in yen futures shows a clear change following the latest interventions. Data released last Friday, covering positions as of the previous Tuesday, showed a rotation from net short to net long positioning. In the past, shifts of this magnitude have tended to provide additional support for the yen. The key question is what the latest positioning data, covering this Tuesday and due to be released today, will show. Source: XTB

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Energies

August 14, 2026

Brent Rises on Middle East Risks

Brent crude climbed above $88 per barrel on Friday, recovering losses from the previous session as talks to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked, keeping investors alert to the risk of further escalation. Vessels passing through the vital waterway continue to face persistent threats, although crude is still moving out of the Persian Gulf, with some tankers transiting while their transponders are switched off. The US also claims that up to 9 million barrels of oil per day is currently passing through the waterway. On the demand front, the IEA lowered its global oil demand outlook this week, warning that prolonged conflict and elevated prices are increasingly weighing on consumption. However, the group expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day, or around 4%, this year, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East threaten to push the global oil market deeper into deficit.

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Norwegian Krone: Weaker after Norges Bank holds rates – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that Norges Bank left its policy rate at 4.25% and kept a tightening bias despite weaker summer inflation. They still expect one final hike in September, though the odds have fallen and the decision is now finely balanced. NOK weakened after the announcement and softer Oil investment and wage data were seen as broadly neutral to slightly positive for Norges Bank. Rate path uncertain as NOK softens "In Norway, Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected. The Monetary Policy Committee maintained its tightening bias, acknowledging weaker-than-expected inflation over the summer but stressing that inflation is still too high. They repeated that it "may still become necessary to raise the policy rate"." "Also in Norway, Statistics Norway's quarterly oil investment survey showed upward revisions for both 2026 and 2027. The revisions point to small nominal declines in oil investment of 0.1% this year and 0.9% next year, leaving the release broadly neutral for Norges Bank." "The more important signal came from the wage figures, where annual wage growth slowed to 4.0% y/y in Q2 from 4.3% in Q1, below Norges Bank's 4.5% estimate for 2026. Together with the latest inflation figures, this should be positive news for Norges Bank and may suggest that wage growth is slowing faster than expected." "The most notable movement in the FX market yesterday was the NOK that weakened after Norges Bank held interest rates unchanged and the oil price dropped. SEK recovered a bit and EUR/USD was about flat on the day." "We maintain our call for a final hike in September, although the probability has clearly fallen and it is now a close call. Much will depend on whether August core inflation moves back above 3% and on the incoming growth figures."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

British Pound: Locked in tight ranges against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD price action remains confined, with intraday moves seen between 1.3475 and 1.3515 as momentum has faded. For the coming 1–3 weeks, they expect the Pound to trade in a broader 1.3440–1.3540 band after a brief test of 1.3540, while longer-term signals point to range-trading with supports at 1.3210/1.3160 and resistance at 1.3610/1.3655. Pound momentum fades into ranges "24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 two days ago before dropping back down to a low of 1.3488. When it was at 1.3500 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “the current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase between 1.3475 and 1.3525.” Our view of range-trading was not wrong, even though GBP traded within a narrower range than expected (1.3475/1.3513). The price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3475 and 1.3515." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a slightly positive GBP view since last Monday. In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.3510), we indicated that while GBP “could test 1.3555, based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 two days ago and then pulled back, printing a low of 1.3475 yesterday. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.3460 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. For the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range, most likely between 1.3440 and 1.3540."

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Euro: Showing some undervaluation against US Dollar – ING

ING FX Strategist Francesco Pesole highlights that EUR/USD appears modestly undervalued, with short-term fair value estimated around 1.160–1.1650 based on swap spreads. He maintains a positive bias on EUR/USD but doubts a near-term break above 1.160 without a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve. For now, he sees strengthening technical support around 1.1500, while Eurozone GDP revisions are expected to be minor. Fair value signals and key levels "Our models suggest EUR/USD’s short-term fair value sits in the 1.160-1.1650 area. That’s primarily on the back of the c.10bp tightening in two-year swap rate spreads, which retain a significantly higher beta than other drivers." "That supports our positive bias on EUR/USD, even though we aren’t convinced a break above 1.160 is on the cards in the coming days unless communication from the Fed starts to surprise on the dovish side. For now, EUR/USD bulls like us may be content with strengthening technical support around 1.1500." "In the eurozone, the second release of 2Q GDP will be released today, with no expectations for meaningful changes to the advance 0.4% quarter-on-quarter print. "

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Banks

August 14, 2026

Equities: US stock rally broadens as S&P 500 hits new high – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists report that United States (US) equities, led by the S&P 500, have reached new record highs as softer inflation data and lower Oil prices reinforce expectations that the Fed can stay on hold. Rate-sensitive sectors and major tech indices, including the NASDAQ and semiconductor stocks, have participated in the rally, with breadth improving via equal-weighted benchmarks. US equities extend record-setting rally "In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-0.93%) and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (-1.01%) are under pressure, while mainland Chinese benchmarks are seeing modest declines, with the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) edging lower." "And in turn, all this dovish newsflow benefited US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.65%) at another record." "This was aided by a recovery for the Magnificent 7 (+1.20%) as well as tech stocks more broadly as the NASDAQ (+0.81%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.46%) also advanced. But it was a positive day more broadly with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.74%) outperforming and hitting a new high as well. " "Earlier in Europe, markets hadn’t been quite as resilient, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) edging lower for a second consecutive session." "In Asia this morning, the KOSPI (+1.99%) continues its recent comeback, extending its rally to a fifth straight session, with the Nikkei (+0.56%) also firm." "S&P 500 futures are flat with the Nasdaq equivalent -0.15%. European futures are back up a quarter to half a percent."

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Economic Calendar – U.S. Retail Sales and UoM Data in Focus

Today’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively busy, with investors focusing primarily on data from the eurozone and the United States. The second estimate of eurozone GDP for Q2 will be released in the morning, while U.S. retail sales will be the key publication later in the day. The session will also feature Canadian data and the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment survey for August. Economic Calendar (August 14) 07:45 AM GMT France – July CPI: previous 2.1% YoY and 0.6% MoM. 07:45 AM GMT France – Final July HICP: previous 2.4% YoY and 0.6% MoM. 10:00 AM GMT Eurozone – Second estimate of Q2 GDP: expected 1.0% YoY and 0.4% QoQ; previous 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively. 10:00 AM GMT Eurozone – Q2 employment change: previous 0.1% QoQ. 01:30 PM GMT U.S. – July retail sales: expected +0.1% MoM; previous +0.2% MoM. 01:30 PM GMT U.S. – July core retail sales: expected +0.2% MoM; previous -0.2% MoM. 01:30 PM GMT U.S. – Retail sales: previous 6.7% YoY. 01:30 PM GMT Canada – June wholesale sales: expected +2.7% MoM; previous 0.0%. 01:30 PM GMT Canada – June manufacturing sales: expected -0.1% MoM; previous +1.3%. 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August: expected 55.0; previous 55.2. 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Expectations: expected 55.2; previous 55.4. 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan Current Conditions: expected 54.8; previous 54.8. 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations: expected 3.3%; previous 3.3%. 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations: expected 4.2%; previous 4.2%. 03:00 PM GMT U.S. – June business inventories: expected +0.1% MoM; previous +0.3% MoM. EURUSD (D1 interval) Given today’s data calendar, EURUSD could see a noticeable increase in volatility in either direction. Weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales could influence investors’ expectations for U.S. interest rates this year and would likely significantly reduce the probability of any rate hike, especially if accompanied by a weak University of Michigan sentiment reading and lower inflation expectations. For EURUSD, such a scenario could theoretically support an attempt to move back above 1.16 and potentially break above the line of least resistance near 1.155. On the other hand, strong retail sales and improving consumer sentiment could push the currency pair back toward its underlying downward trend. The second estimate of eurozone GDP is likely to be of secondary importance for EURUSD, as investors do not expect any significant revisions. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 14, 2026

XAG/USD extends correction as energy supply concerns remain intact

Silver price slumps to near $63.80 as global supply concerns keep inflation projections de-anchored. Traffic through key passages, the the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Strait, remains almost negligible. The Fed is unlikely to deliver an interest rate hike in the September meeting. Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1% to near $63.80 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as financial markets remain worried about the global energy supply disruption due to the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Strait, which together account for almost 27% of global energy supply. Minimal traffic through these straits is keeping oil prices higher, a scenario that boosts inflation expectations and prompts fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver. As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades flat at around $80.45. The oil price has faced slight selling pressure in the past few days; however, supply concerns are expected to keep the downside limited. Oil momentum cools, but TD Securities still sees upside ahead According to TD Securities, the recent loss of steam in the rally has seen “easing near-term momentum” and has “also catalysed modest selling in WTI crude on the day.” However, the bank’s commodity strategists “continue to highlight that fundamental tightness across crude and product markets should ultimately support further upside,” suggesting that the latest bout of selling is viewed as a temporary setback within an otherwise constructive medium-term outlook for Oil prices. Meanwhile, traders pricing out the possibility of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in the September meeting due to a slight slowdown in United States (US) inflation growth and rising labor market concerns are expected to limit the downside in the Silver price. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 65%. This is a sharp turnaround from a 75% chance that the Fed would deliver two interest rate hikes by the end of the September policy meeting, recorded a month ago. Silver Technical Analysis XAG/USD trades at around $63.78, extending its advance above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.78 and hinting at a bullish near-term bias. The metal is holding comfortably over its short-term trend indicator, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, suggesting that buyers retain control but still have room to push prices higher. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $61.78, which underpins the current bullish structure and would be the first level to watch on any pullback. A deeper slide would expose the broader momentum floor implied by the RSI zone around 56, where dip-buying interest could re-emerge as long as price holds above the $61 handle. On the upside, the June 16 high near $71.20 would be the key hurdle.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Gold finds some support ahead of $4,300 as USD remains depressed on receding Fed hike bets

Gold attracts some follow-through selling for the second consecutive day on Friday. Geopolitical risks act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD, weighing on the bullion. Receding Fed rate hike bets could help limit losses for the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling for the second consecutive day and retreats further from its highest level since June 5, around $4,450, which it touched the previous day. The commodity, however, finds some support ahead of the $4,300 mark as traders refrain from placing aggressive directional bets amid mixed fundamental cues. Data released on Thursday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in July, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% rise. Adding to this, the yearly rate decelerated from 5.5% in June to 4.7%, also coming in below the 4.9% estimate. This, along with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday, points to a slowdown in overall inflation and gives the US Federal Reserve (Fed) room to keep interest rates unchanged, which keeps US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and offers some support to the non-yielding bullion. Economists at DBS Group Research highlight that the latest US inflation print did little to shift the broader Dollar narrative, with "US CPI inflation came in very much in line with market expectations, not strong enough or weak enough to break the DXY Index out of its lower 99.4-100.1 range set after USD/JPY’s sell-off from the joint US-Japan interventions." According to DBS, the softer data backdrop has also fed directly into the policy outlook, as "the markets reduced the probability of a September Fed hike to 40% overnight from 72% at the end of July, driven by last Friday's negative nonfarm payrolls and slower CPI inflation readings." Adding to this, mixed comments from influential FOMC members forced traders to scale back expectations for an immediate policy tightening. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pointed out that recent price spikes are largely driven by temporary tariff and energy factors, favoring patience rather than aggressive monetary tightening. However, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that progress on inflation is still insufficient, asserting that further rate increases may be needed to secure price stability. Nevertheless, Fed funds futures ​indicate just over a 65% probability of a rate hike by year-end, down from nearly 85% a week earlier, though geopolitical uncertainties could support the safe-haven buck. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is going to apply measures that have never been seen on Iran. Meanwhile, a senior IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said that Tehran's strategy is to make any conflict so costly that future US administrations think twice before taking military action against Iran. This comes on top of rising tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps the war-risk premium in play and supports the USD. President Donald Trump again claimed that the US has "total control" over the strategic waterway, while Iran pledged to keep the strait closed until all its demands are met. Moreover, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen escalated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and also claimed a drone strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery. This raises the risk of a broader regional conflict and favors USD bulls. The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop, in turn, warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets on the Gold price. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair, for now, seems to have stalled the monthly upswing from the vicinity of the $4,000 psychological mark, though the downside potential seems limited. Traders now look forward to the US macro data – monthly Retail Sales and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for some impetus later during the North American session. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis The precious metal holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, and a dense cluster of Fibonacci supports, suggesting the broader uptrend is still intact despite the latest pullback. However, momentum has softened, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero and its signal line, and the Relative Strength Index near 42, hinting that upside impulses are waning. Meanwhile, immediate support appears at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest leg up from the August swing low, at $4,285. This is followed by deeper structural floors at the 50.0% retracement near $4,234 and the 61.8% level at $4,184, with the 200-period EMA reinforcing demand slightly below. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 23.6% retracement at $4,347, ahead of the cycle high anchor around $4,448.40, where a sustained break would reopen the path toward additional gains.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Iron Ore Rises on Improving Fundamentals

Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 710 per ton, recovering modestly from multi-month lows as signs of tightening supply and improving steel demand in top consumer China provided support. Industry data showed iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports edged down to around 156.8 million tons, pointing to potentially tighter supply conditions in the coming weeks. Daily hot metal production at Chinese steel mills also increased to 2.38 million tons, up 0.17 million tons from the previous week, while mill profitability improved to 33.77%, rising 1.74 percentage points from the previous month. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, which could provide additional support to economic activity by improving liquidity and credit availability.

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Markets

August 14, 2026

Palm Oil Set for Second Straight Weekly Rise

Malaysian palm oil futures extended gains, hovering around MYR 4,725 per tonne and heading for a second consecutive weekly advance, supported by firmer edible oils on the Dalian markets and improving export prospects. Cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil shipments rose between 2.6% and 14.8% in the first 10 days of August from the same period in July. Demand prospects also strengthened after edible oil imports in top buyer India climbed to a 10-month high in July, as refiners increased purchases of palm oil and soyoil to replenish inventories ahead of the festival season, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. Higher oil prices also lent support amid U.S. threats to maintain a naval blockade of Iran. However, gains were capped by a stronger ringgit and weaker soyoils on the Chicago exchange. Meanwhile, Malaysia lowered its September crude palm oil reference price, although the adjustment was insufficient to bring the export duty below 10%.

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Another round of inflation figures from the US – what did they reveal?

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 9,000 to 209,000 on the first week of August, above market expectations of 202,000. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment in the US, declined by 22,000 to 1,777,000 in the earlier week. The data pointed to some resilience in the US despite weaker signals from the latest BLS jobs report, broadly aligning with statements from FOMC members that see the US economy in full employment. Meanwhile, initial claims filed by federal employees, which have been under scrutiny due the administration's efforts in decreasing the number of public workers, fell by 49 to 401. US Core Producer Prices Rise Less than Expected Core producer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy goods, rose 0.2% from the previous month in July of 2026, slowing from the upwardly revised 0.4% increase in the previous month. This contrasted with market expectations of a 0.3% increase, reflecting a soft initial transmission of the rebound in energy prices to underlying sections of wholesale trade. From the previous year, core producer inflation rose by 4.2%. US Producer Prices Flat in July US producer prices were unchanged in July 2026, following a revised 0.1% fall in June and compared with market expectations of a 0.2% gain. A 0.2% increase in the index for services and a 2.2% advance in prices for construction offset a 0.7% decrease in the index for goods. Services prices rose at a slower pace than in June (0.2% vs 0.5%), while portfolio management costs jumped 6.5%, contributing significantly to the increase. By contrast, transportation and warehousing services fell 1.8%. Goods prices declined for a second consecutive month (-0.7% vs -1.4%), largely due to a 3.1% drop in energy prices, including a 5.7% plunge in gasoline prices. Food prices also fell 0.9% (vs -0.5%), while prices for goods excluding food and energy edged up 0.1% (vs 0.2%). Year-on-year, producer prices increased 4.7%, well below 5.5% in June and forecasts of 4.9%. Meanwhile, core producer prices rose 0.2%, below forecasts of 0.3% and the annual core rate came in at 4.2%, in line with expectations.

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Coffee Down 5% on ICE. Profit-Taking Hits the Market Despite Low Arabica Inventories

Arabica coffee futures on ICE are down around 5% today, pulling back sharply after the strong rebound from their June lows. Prices are coming under pressure from expectations of a large Brazilian crop and the prospect of harvesting activity accelerating as weather conditions improve. Today’s sell-off, however, contrasts with a still-tight physical market, where ICE-certified stocks remain close to their lowest levels in roughly two and a half years. At the same time, the market continues to price in risks associated with El Niño, which could become more relevant for Brazilian production in the next season. The roughly 5% decline therefore appears primarily to reflect a renewed focus on abundant near-term supply, while risks surrounding the availability of high-quality Arabica remain elevated. Arabica futures on ICE are down around 5% today, even though the market benefited from low inventories and a weather premium as recently as last week. The key bearish factor remains the supply outlook: the USDA forecasts record global coffee production of 189.7 million bags in the 2026/27 season, up 6% year-on-year. According to the USDA, Brazil could harvest around 71.9 million bags of coffee, 14% more than a year earlier, providing a fundamental counterweight to low exchange inventories. At the same time, ICE-certified Arabica stocks have recently fallen to around 244,000 bags, their lowest level in approximately two and a half years. Brazil’s harvest has progressed more slowly than a year ago, but drier conditions could allow producers to accelerate fieldwork, increasing supply pressure on the market. The quality of part of Brazil’s new Arabica crop remains a concern, with reports pointing to weaker cup quality and bean size, potentially limiting the pace at which ICE inventories can be replenished. El Niño remains a key risk for the remainder of the season. Potential disruptions to rainfall and temperatures could affect flowering conditions and the outlook for future crops. Record Crops Return to the Forefront The prospect of very high supply in the 2026/27 season remains the main fundamental argument for sellers. The USDA expects global coffee production to rise 6% to a record 189.7 million bags, with Arabica output increasing by around 12% year-on-year. Global ending stocks are also projected to rise by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million. Brazil remains crucial to this outlook. The USDA forecasts production of 71.9 million bags, which would represent an increase of around 14% year-on-year. Moreover, drier weather conditions could now help accelerate harvesting activity following earlier delays caused by rainfall. The prospect of Brazilian coffee reaching the market at a faster pace is currently the strongest supply-side argument. Following the previous strong rebound in prices, investors may therefore be shifting their attention back towards the size and availability of the current crop rather than focusing exclusively on future weather risks. Low ICE Inventories Limit the Bearish Case The problem is that a large crop does not automatically translate into an equally large supply of coffee eligible for delivery against ICE contracts. Certified Arabica stocks have recently fallen to around 244,000 bags, their lowest level in approximately two and a half years and significantly below levels seen a year ago. There are also concerns about the quality of Brazil’s harvest. According to information cited by Vesper based on a Sucafina report, part of the new crop has disappointed in terms of both cup quality and bean size. This means that even a large harvest may not quickly solve the shortage of coffee meeting exchange delivery requirements. The market therefore has plenty of coffee in production forecasts, but still only a limited buffer of coffee readily available through the ICE delivery mechanism. This divergence helps explain why Arabica remains highly volatile and why weather-related developments can trigger sharp price reactions. El Niño Remains a Risk for the Next Season Another factor preventing an unequivocally bearish interpretation of today’s decline is El Niño. In recent weeks, the market had started rebuilding a weather premium, with Arabica previously staging a strong rebound from its early-June lows. For Brazil, the key period will be flowering between September and November. Higher temperatures and irregular rainfall could increase plant stress and weaken the production potential of future crops. El Niño therefore represents primarily a risk to future supply, while the large Brazilian harvest is influencing the market here and now. This distinction is crucial: today’s sell-off may reflect the current dominance of the near-term supply argument, but the balance could change quickly once the flowering period begins. Today’s move should also be viewed in the context of the previous rebound. At the beginning of August, Arabica was still trading around 30% above its June low as investors priced in El Niño risks and exceptionally low ICE inventories. The market is therefore caught between two very different narratives. On one side, record global production, a large Brazilian crop and the prospect of faster harvesting argue for lower prices. On the other, exceptionally low certified stocks, quality concerns surrounding part of Brazil’s Arabica crop and El Niño risks continue to constrain the physical market. The decline strengthens near-term supply pressure but does not resolve the tight availability of high-quality coffee. The pace of Brazil’s harvest and producer selling, developments in ICE inventories and, as September approaches, weather conditions during the crucial flowering period will be particularly important for Arabica’s next directional move. Coffee Chart (D1 Interval) Following distribution in the 340–350 area, the contract has pulled back towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downward move, located around 317. This is also an important technical area because the 200-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, EMA200 and EMA50, converge nearby. A sustained break below this zone could open the way towards 290, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, a rebound from the current area could bring prices back towards 360, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement coincides with significant price reactions observed earlier this year. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Orange Juice Futures Near Multi-Year Lows – What Does the CoT Report Show?

ICE-listed orange juice futures (ORANGE) are trading near multi-year lows, while the latest Commitments of Traders report for Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) futures points to a significant shift in speculative positioning. Large speculators in the Managed Money category remain net short, but over the past week they simultaneously increased long positions and significantly reduced shorts, shifting their net position by 444 contracts in a bullish direction. With total open interest at just 9,794 contracts, the move is large enough to be difficult to dismiss as statistical noise. At the same time, producers and other commercial participants substantially increased their short exposure, while Other Reportables remain firmly positioned on the long side. The COT structure does not yet signal a complete trend reversal, but speculative positioning in FCOJ is becoming noticeably less bearish. Managed Money remains net short by 1,136 contracts: funds hold 2,379 longs versus 3,515 shorts. The weekly change in Managed Money positioning is clearly positive: funds added 200 longs and closed 244 shorts, improving their net position by 444 contracts. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User participants increased short exposure, adding 528 shorts while reducing longs by 47 contracts. Other Reportables remain firmly net long: 2,390 longs versus just 169 shorts translate into a net position of +2,221 contracts. Open interest fell by 127 to 9,794 contracts, while the four largest traders control as much as 42% of gross short positions. The orange juice market is at an interesting juncture, as prices have fallen to around 139, levels not seen in several years, while speculative positioning no longer reflects extremely bearish sentiment . Speculators’ net position currently stands at approximately +1.1K contracts, remaining below its long-term average but well above the extremes observed during periods of peak pessimism. The composition of positioning is particularly noteworthy, with the long side of the market showing signs of rebuilding recently. Historically, the largest price moves have tended to occur when price action was accompanied by a decisive shift in positioning, so the current setup should be viewed as an early stage of sentiment stabilization rather than confirmation of a trend reversal . The key question for the futures market is whether further growth in long positions and a reduction in shorts near multi-year price lows will begin to coincide with a recovery in prices. Such a combination would provide a much stronger signal that selling pressure is beginning to lose momentum. Source: XTB Research Source: CFTC Managed Money: Still Bearish, but the Direction of Flows Is Changing Managed Money remains the most important category for assessing speculative sentiment. Funds currently hold 2,379 long contracts, 3,515 shorts and 251 spreading positions, leaving them net short by 1,136 contracts. Shorts account for 35.9% of total open interest, compared with 24.3% for longs. The weekly change is considerably more interesting than the absolute level of positioning. Managed Money increased longs by 200 contracts while simultaneously reducing shorts by 244, improving its net position by 444 contracts – from approximately -1,580 to -1,136. Funds are simultaneously reducing bearish bets and increasing their exposure to potential upside. This is a stronger signal than an improvement driven exclusively by short covering. It does not yet represent a full reversal in sentiment, however, as Managed Money remains clearly net short. Commercials Increase Short-Side Hedging The Producer/Merchant/Processor/User category, which includes producers, merchants and other participants directly involved in the physical market, holds 1,656 longs and 3,267 shorts, resulting in a net short position of approximately 1,611 contracts. Over the week, long positions declined by 47 contracts, while shorts increased sharply by 528. This move should not be interpreted in the same way as an increase in short positions among speculative funds. For producers, processors and users of the physical commodity, futures are primarily a tool for managing price risk. The increase in commercial shorts may therefore reflect greater hedging activity rather than a direct expectation that FCOJ prices will decline. This distinction is crucial when interpreting COT positioning in commodity markets. Other Reportables Remain Firmly Bullish The most one-sided positioning can currently be seen in the Other Reportables category. This group holds 2,390 long contracts against just 169 shorts, producing a substantial net long position of +2,221 contracts. Over the past week, longs increased by another 64 contracts, while shorts were cut by as many as 303. Long positions held by this group now account for 24.4% of total open interest, compared with only 1.7% for shorts. Other Reportables currently provide a clear counterweight to the bearish positioning of Managed Money. This category should not, however, be treated as equivalent to hedge funds, as it includes large reportable traders that are not classified within the other main CFTC categories. Low Open Interest Amplifies the Importance of Positioning Changes Total open interest stands at 9,794 contracts, down 127 from the previous week. FCOJ remains a relatively small futures market, meaning that flows of several hundred contracts can carry considerably more weight than they would in the most liquid commodity markets. The 444-contract weekly improvement in Managed Money's net position alone represents approximately 4.5% of total open interest. Moreover, the four largest traders control 42.0% of gross shorts, while the eight largest account for as much as 56.7%. The high concentration of short positions increases the market's vulnerability to a potentially dynamic short-covering move. If several large participants were to reduce their short exposure simultaneously, the relatively limited depth of the FCOJ market could amplify the resulting price move. What Is the COT Report Telling Us About Orange Juice? The key feature of the current setup is the divergence between the absolute level and the momentum of speculative positioning. Managed Money continues to hold a substantial net short position, but improved it by as many as 444 contracts in a single week through a combination of adding longs and reducing shorts. The next COT reports will therefore be particularly important. If funds continue to increase long exposure while reducing shorts, this could indicate a gradual reversal in speculative positioning rather than a one-off episode of short covering. An even stronger signal would be a move by Managed Money towards a neutral net position accompanied by rising open interest. FCOJ positioning remains bearish in absolute terms, but speculative flows are clearly becoming less bearish. This does not yet confirm a lasting trend reversal, but the pace of short reduction makes fund positioning one of the most important factors to monitor in the coming COT reports. ORANGE Chart (D1 Interval) Following the sharp decline that began around the turn of 2024 and 2025, the orange juice market has failed to stage a sustained recovery and has remained in a downtrend for many months. Repeated rebound attempts have been capped near the market's "line of least resistance," which currently runs around the 150 level. The contract is now trading close to its recent lows, at price levels previously seen in early 2022. From a technical perspective, the persistence of lower price levels means that the broader trend remains under pressure despite the recent improvement in speculative positioning. Importantly, today's ORANGE futures trading session opens at 1:05 PM GMT. Source: xStation5

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Energies

August 13, 2026

Oil declines under the weight of inventories

Brent Crude loses over 1% due to long-term forecasts and an unexpected increase in US commercial inventories Oil prices are undergoing clear declines during Thursday's session, continuing yesterday's movement, due to factors including a massive increase in US inventories, theoretically progressing peace talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and fears of a slowdown in global demand. The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, combined with a decline in long positions on contracts and a strong dollar, has pushed oil prices below $88 per barrel for Brent and below $82 per barrel for WTI crude. Apart from the DOE report on inventory status, we have recently seen several important publications from institutions related to the oil market. Oil production in OPEC and OPEC+ The cartel's July report indicates a partial recovery in Middle East output as regional tensions ease: OPEC+ Results: The countries covered by the agreement increased production in July by 1.37 million b/d (to 28.92 million b/d). Despite the increase, the group remains as much as 6.91 million b/d below the designated quotas. In the entire DoC group, which the OPEC report still includes the UAE, production rose to 37.655 million b/d, representing an increase of 1.42 million b/d. Main Producers: The increase was driven by Saudi Arabia (+590 thousand b/d to 7.35 million b/d), Iraq (+665 thousand b/d to 2.62 million b/d), and Kuwait (+393 thousand b/d to 1.85 million b/d). Iran's Situation: Iran produced 2.478 million b/d in July (+26 thousand b/d m/m). Although this is the second consecutive month of increase, production remains about 700 thousand b/d below the pre-war level (~3.2 million b/d). Although production remains stable, July data shows a clear increase in exports to nearly 1 million b/d. UAE Status: After leaving the alliance in May, the United Arab Emirates maintained production at around 3.78–3.8 million b/d, reaching volumes about 400 thousand b/d higher than at the beginning of the conflict. Looking from the perspective of the last quarter of 2025, current production is about 5-6 million b/d lower, which, combined with demand destruction already exceeding 3 million b/d, means the global deficit remains low. However, it is worth remembering that the deficit is heavily constrained by the coordinated release of inventories and reserves onto the market. Source: OPEC Monthly IEA and EIA reports Energy agencies present diversified perspectives on the demand and supply balance for the coming quarters: International Energy Agency (IEA): Deepened estimates for the drop in global oil demand in 2026 to 1.6 million b/d (previously -1.0 million b/d) due to high fuel prices and logistical disruptions. Despite this, the IEA forecasts a market deficit in the third quarter of 1.8 million b/d due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The report anticipates a strong rebound in 2027, where demand is expected to increase by 2.4 million b/d and supply by 8.3 million b/d. EIA Forecasts (STEO Report): The U.S. Energy Information Administration assumes an average Brent oil price in 2026 of $87/bbl (compared to $69/bbl in 2025 and 2027), with stable US output at 13.8 million b/d. Average Brent crude oil prices this year are expected to reach $87 per barrel, roughly around current levels. A significant drop is expected next year. Source: EIA EIA expects the oil market deficit to persist in the fourth quarter, but this, of course, assumes at least a partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Source: EIA DOE inventory report: Massive jump in US inventories Weekly data from the U.S. Department of Energy showed the largest jump in commercial crude inventories since January 2023, which may be a significant surprise given the current state of the market. This is related to an import-export mismatch: Commercial Crude Inventories: Increased by 17.42 million barrels, sharply missing market expectations for a decline of approx. 1.4 million barrels. Import Spike and Export Decline: US oil imports rose by over 1 million b/d (highest since November 2024) due to the return of Saudi oil, Canadian deliveries, and an increase in imports from Venezuela to the highest level in 9 years. At the same time, US crude exports fell sharply. Refined Product Inventories: Gasoline inventories fell by 0.97 million barrels, less than the expected 1.6 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell minimally by just 10 thousand barrels. Coast Concentration: As much as 14.7 million barrels of the total increase occurred in the Gulf Coast region. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): Another 6.1 million barrels were released from reserves, bringing the total level of US strategic reserves below the 300 million barrel threshold for the first time since the 1980s. US commercial inventories have increased significantly to 5-year average levels. If this state of affairs continues in the coming weeks, concerns regarding inventory levels will clearly diminish. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The coordinated release of strategic reserves globally has led to US reserves falling below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s. Theoretically, reserves will drop to around 240 million barrels. At the current rate of decline, this would give us about 10-12 weeks of further oil market stabilization, at least in the United States. The IEA has expressed readiness for another global release of inventories onto the market. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Price Situation The price continues yesterday's declines, although the movements are not as dynamic. The level of $90 per barrel remains a very strong resistance, slightly above the 23.6 retracement. A lack of escalation in the global situation could lead to an attempt to test $85 per barrel. On the other hand, a breakout of the falling trend line could first lead to a test of the $92-95 zone, and then to the $98-100 level.

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Indian Rupee: RBI seen delaying rate hikes – MUFG

Michael Wan at MUFG reports that India’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 4.45% year-on-year, slightly below consensus but above June’s 4.38%, driven mainly by higher food prices. With inflation still within the RBI’s 2–6% band, Wan expects the central bank to keep a neutral stance for now and delay a projected 50 basis points hiking cycle to start in December 2026. Inflation supports later tightening path "Meanwhile in India, July CPI printed at 4.45%yoy, marginally below consensus estimates of 4.5%yoy but accelerating from 4.38%yoy in June." "Food prices drove the uptick, with consumer food inflation rising to 5.52%yoy from June’s 5.32%yoy, highlighting vulnerability to weather and external shocks." "Although headline inflation remained above the maintenance level of 4.0%yoy for a second consecutive month, it is still comfortably within RBI’s target inflation band of 2-6%." "We believe that the RBI will continue to maintain its neutral stance for now, but we see some signs that inflation is likely to broaden out more moving forward given firm domestic demand, accelerating credit growth and overall supportive fiscal position." "We continue to see RBI hiking rates by 50bps this cycle but we have recently pushed out the timing of hikes to start from December 2026 instead."

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Banks

August 13, 2026

US Dollar: Markets remain hawkish after CPI – ING

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that the Dollar strengthened after an in-line US CPI, as markets had positioned for a hotter print. Despite core inflation running at a 1.6% three‑month annualised pace, Fed expectations remain hawkish, with 9bp still priced for September and a full 25bp hike for December, keeping FX volatility subdued into the Jackson Hole Symposium. Dollar supported by stubborn Fed pricing "The dollar had a short-lived negative reaction to the spot-on consensus 0.1% headline and 0.2% core month-on-month CPI print yesterday. The driver was a small dovish repricing in Fed rate expectations, which told us that markets were positioned for a slightly hotter print than consensus. In any case, the release did not provide a conclusive answer for front-end rates and FX direction, and the dollar ended the day stronger, perhaps on some net long rebuilding after this round of US data." "In our assessment, core inflation running at a 1.6% three-month annualised is weakening the case for Fed tightening. But markets remain hawkish. The jobs and CPI reports have together knocked 5bp off September FOMC expectations, but 9bp remains in the price." "This tells us two important things for FX. First, there is reluctance to price out further Fed tightening, which is keeping dollar bulls active. Hawkish Fed communication is the main culprit." "Next week’s FOMC minutes should offer some insight into the Committee’s latest thinking, but unless we see a major surprise in today’s PPI data or other second-tier releases over the coming weeks, Fed pricing may settle and FX volatility may compress further. Even so, we expect Fed communication to gradually soften its hawkish tone and keep risks on the downside for USD." "In all this, the Gulf situation may regain some relevance for FX, in particular through the risk-sentiment implications of the Strait of Hormuz negotiations."

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Recovery not just about Oil – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues Canada’s recent economic improvement is not solely driven by higher Oil and gas prices linked to the Iran conflict. He notes real energy exports bottomed last August and have risen steadily, while labour market and GDP data show services and non-energy sectors leading the upturn. He concludes sustainable Canadian growth and reduced tariff uncertainty are prerequisites for Bank of Canada hikes and a lasting Canadian Dollar recovery. Broader drivers behind Canada’s upturn "While it is true that US exports in particular have risen significantly since March - a trend that is almost certainly attributable to the conflict in Iran - these figures are not price-adjusted. In real terms, energy exports reached their lowest point in August last year and have been rising steadily ever since; the trend since March has been more of a continuation than an acceleration." "Labour market figures also suggest that a low point was reached last summer. The goods-producing sector accounts for only a small part of the labour market anyway, and within the energy sector, only a very small proportion of the workforce is employed." "While a positive impact from the oil and gas sector on GDP was observed in April and May, this was not the case in March, when energy prices rose most sharply. Canada’s recent return to stronger growth was therefore primarily due to other sectors." "The Iran conflict cannot change this. It is only once the Canadian real economy has recovered sustainably that the Bank of Canada is likely to consider interest rate hikes, and it is only then that the CAD is likely to recover." "In short, the figures suggest that the real economy is slowly recovering for other reasons. The recovery in the PMIs, the rise in exports and stronger growth suggest that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is gradually easing. While this means that the oil price is a decisive factor for the CAD in the short term, in the medium term it is likely to be the negotiations with the US that determine whether the upturn is sustainable. "

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations support JPY against US Dollar – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen has strengthened modestly as markets anticipate a faster pace of Bank of Japan policy tightening. A Bloomberg report suggests Prime Minister Takaichi’s government supports a near-term BoJ hike, likely in September or October, while Kyodo highlights that joint FX intervention was enabled by Governor Ueda’s hawkish stance. Rising USD/JPY towards 160.00 keeps intervention risks in focus. BoJ hike expectations and FX intervention "The yen has strengthened modestly overnight supported by building expectations for a faster pace of BoJ policy tightening. The main trigger has been a Bloomberg report stating that Prime Minister Takaichi’s government is supportive of a near-term BoJ hike, with the next move likely in either September or October, according to people familiar with the matter. The report goes on to add that the BoJ’s fears over yen weakness driving up prices and the government’s desire to strengthen the impact of the recent US-Japan currency intervention are aligning them on the need for a near-term hike." "The impact on Japanese rate market pricing has been relatively limited given that market participants had already moved in recent weeks to fully price in a hike by October and there are currently around 19bps of hikes priced in by September. The Bloomberg report fits with our own initial view that there was likely an agreement to allow the BoJ to continue to normalize policy in exchange for the US providing support for the yen through joint intervention at the end of July." "Kyodo news had also reported earlier this week that joint intervention was reportedly made possible by BoJ Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments at the 31st July policy meeting. Governor Ueda had stated explicitly that, if necessary, the BoJ would “accelerate the pace of rate hikes”. The US was reportedly concerned that delays in raising rates would lead to excessive yen weakness, which in turn could fuel further inflation and higher long-term interest rates, with repercussions across financial markets." "The report went on to conclude that the BoJ has “effectively left itself with no option other than a rate hike at its next Monetary Policy Meeting on 17th-18th September”." "With USD/JPY rising back towards the 160.00-level, market participants will be watching closely to see if Japan is willing to step back into the FX market to support the yen. At the very least Japanese policymakers will be hoping the heightened threat of intervention helps to slow the pace of yen weakness. Recent price action highlights that it will be difficult for the BoJ to avoid hiking rates in September and disappointing market expectations which would encourage further yen selling."

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Forex Trading

August 13, 2026

Chart of The Day – GBP/USD down on slower UK GDP growth! Unbreakable sideways trend?

The pound snaps its winning streak following the release of the latest UK GDP data. Economic growth slowed noticeably, although June figures point to a fairly resilient consumer. UK bond yields remain largely unchanged, but GBP/USD—trapped in consolidation—found a reason to resume its decline after bouncing off immediate resistance. Technical Analysis: GBPUSD (D1) GBP/USD is trading in a firmly entrenched sideways trend, partially reflecting monetary policy uncertainty in both economies, with the exchange rate currently sitting right where it started the year. Following yesterday's breakout above the local peak at 1.3545, quotes are currently testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3480), which coincides with the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10; yellow). Holding the price above the cluster of moving averages (EMA10, EMA30, and EMA100 at 1.3400–1.3470) will be crucial to preserving the recent rebound and attempting to break out of the sideways trend. The RSI (14) at 58.2 leaves room for upside, though the absence of a bullish macroeconomic impulse also means there is no springboard for a sharp rally. The main resistance remains the local peak at 1.3545, while key support lies at 1.3440 (38.2% Fibo). Source: xStation5 What is driving GBP/USD today? UK GDP growth decelerates: UK GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in Q2 from 0.6% in Q1. However, June came in better than expected, with the economy expanding 0.3% against forecasts of a 0.1% decline. Services-led expansion: Growth was overwhelmingly driven by a 0.5% jump in the services sector, led by a 2.7% gain in information and communication. Construction output rose 0.3%, while industrial production remained flat across the quarter. Consumer resilience vs. looming headwinds: UK economic resilience has been sustained primarily by consumers who maintained their spending, buoyed by sunny weather and the World Cup atmosphere—benefiting small retail, hospitality, and advertising. However, this resilience could gradually evaporate as Middle East conflict disruptions and a 13% increase in the energy price cap hit household budgets. Chancellor John Healey emphasized the need to drive growth nationwide amid these ongoing challenges.

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Australian Dollar: Upside risk intact above 0.7025 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report AUD/USD briefly broke above 0.7075 to 0.7091 before retreating to close almost unchanged at 0.7063. They expect a 0.7050–0.7085 intraday range, but keep an upside bias over 1–3 weeks as long as the pair holds above 0.7025, with potential for a move toward 0.7100 if 0.7075 is closed above. Australian Dollar supported with key levels nearby "24-HOUR VIEW: Following Tuesday’s price action, we indicated yesterday that “the slight increase in upward momentum suggests AUD could edge higher, but based on the current momentum, a sustained break above 0.7075 appears unlikely.” AUD broke above 0.7075 during the NY session, printing a high of 0.7091 before dropping back quickly to close largely unchanged at 0.7063 (+0.02%). The brief advance did not result in any increase in upward momentum, and today, AUD is likely to trade in a range between 0.7050 and 0.7085." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Since early last week (as annotated in the chart below), we have been of the view that the risk for AUD is on the upside. Two days ago (11 Aug, spot at 0.7055), we highlighted that “the upside risk will remain intact as long as AUD holds above 0.7025 (‘strong support’ level).” We also highlighted that “should AUD close above 0.7075, it could continue to rise toward 0.7100.” Yesterday, AUD rose briefly to a high of 0.7091, retreating quickly to close at 0.7063 (+0.02%). While upward momentum is starting to slow, only a breach of 0.7025 would indicate that the upside risk has faded."

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Energies

August 13, 2026

Brent Halts 6-Day Rally

Brent crude fell below $88 a barrel on Thursday, ending a six-session rally as investors shifted their focus toward weakening demand prospects and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency lowered its global oil demand outlook, warning that the prolonged Middle East conflict and higher prices are increasingly weighing on consumption. The agency estimates the global oil market could face a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels a day this quarter, more than twice its previous forecast, while supply remained 6.3 million barrels a day below year-earlier levels in July. Meanwhile, US crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels last week, their largest weekly increase since January 2023. Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran to end the conflict and reopen Hormuz have made little progress, with attacks on shipping continuing and rhetoric intensifying. Despite Thursday’s decline, Brent remained nearly 5% higher for the week.

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Swiss Franc: Soft profile sustained on SNB stance – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the Swiss Franc (CHF) has weakened toward their year-end EUR/CHF target of 0.94, making it a preferred funding currency for carry trades. With domestic inflation subdued and near-term imported inflation risks limited, they expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to keep rates at zero for the rest of the year, pointing to continued CHF softness amid mixed growth signals. SNB policy underpins CHF weakness "The CHF has weakened in recent months, moving closer to our year-end EUR/CHF target of 0.94. A dovish SNB, coupled with potential intervention risks in the JPY, has strengthened the case for CHF as a preferred funding currency for carry trades. As a result, the CHF is the worst-performing G10 currency against the USD so far in 3Q26." "Near-term inflation risks remain limited. While the recent depreciation of the CHF may eventually lift imported inflation, the impact is unlikely to be felt for at least another two quarters. Domestic inflation remains subdued and below the midpoint of the SNB's 0-2% price stability range." "Against this backdrop, we expect the SNB to keep policy rates at zero for the rest of the year, reinforcing the outlook for continued CHF softness. Growth signals also remain mixed. Strength in the pharmaceutical sector contrasts with softer industrial activity and weaker consumer-facing earnings, offering little justification for a more hawkish policy stance."

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Norwegian Krone: Dovish risks but bullish view against Euro – ING

Francesco Pesole at ING sees some downside risks for the Norwegian Krone from Norges Bank’s meeting, as benign CPI‑ATE prints could tilt communication slightly less hawkish. He still expects rates to stay at 4.25% today and another hike later this year, but is less convinced about multiple moves. Despite limited upside for front‑end NOK rates, ING keeps a bullish NOK stance with a 10.75 EUR/NOK year‑end target. Norges Bank tone versus NOK fundamentals "This morning’s Norges Bank meeting carries some downside risks for NOK. In this article, we discuss why we think policymakers will keep rates at 4.25% (in line with expectations), but still expect them to hike rates again later this year." "However, we cannot ignore the two benign 2.7% CPI-ATE prints in June and July and how they might tilt the balance to a slightly less hawkish tone. We see little upside room for front-end NOK rates anyway at this stage." "Markets are pricing in 27bp of tightening by year-end, broadly in line with our base case, but we have become less convinced about another hike and even less convinced about the prospect of more than one." "That is not a major concern for our bullish NOK views, however. Fundamentals and an attractive carry regardless of another hike, and we remain bullish on the krone with a 10.75 target versus EUR at the end of December."

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Russian Ruble: Trade boost from Oil seen fading – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports Russia’s June merchandise trade surplus rose to USD 12.5bn, up over 50% year-on-year, as higher Oil prices and improved Urals pricing supported exports. IMF trade data confirm a jump in exports and surplus by April, but he cautions the improvement is not trend-altering and may fade as export prices ease. With USD/RUB only weakly tied to fundamentals, he expects continued Ruble depreciation over the coming year. Oil-driven trade gains lack durability "Russia’s June merchandise trade data show that the rise in the oil price and better Urals price realisation since March began to have a positive effect on the trade balance since around April. According to the latest official data, the merchandise trade surplus reached USD 12.5bn in June (up by 52.3%y/y)." "We still choose to showcase the IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics for trends in Russian trade (as opposed to local Russian statistics, whose reliability became questionable – partly because of stated official policy – since the Ukraine war began). The IMF data are delayed, which means that the latest available data are for April rather than June. Still, one can observe the effect already by April." "The up to date official data suggest that the trade balance has not improved much further since then and may, in fact, begin to fade in July as the oil export price begins to average lower. Crucially, our chart shows that the trade balance improved to a multi-year high, but did not really increase to a level beyond what Russia had enjoyed in preceding years." "In this sense, the development is not “trend altering” although better Urals pricing did help the Russian economy. The USD/RUB “technical fix” began to drift up around the same time because the geo-political environment deteriorated, while the exchange rate has only a weak link to underlying trade fundamentals. We expect the ruble to keep depreciating over the coming year."

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Banks

August 13, 2026

US Dollar: Fed-driven hedge rebuilding revives selling pressure – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that the July Fed meeting marked a peak in Dollar dehedging rather than an end to U.S. exceptionalism. Cross-border investors are rebuilding USD hedges, reducing effective unhedged U.S. exposure while maintaining broadly solid underlying demand for U.S. assets. Dollar selling is concentrated against GBP, EUR and CAD, while JPY and CNY remain notable exceptions. Fed decision shifts Dollar hedging "The July Fed appears to have marked a dollar dehedging peak rather than an end to U.S. exceptionalism. Cross-border investors are adding USD hedges again, with net U.S. asset exposure falling sharply after the July 29 decision. Dollar selling is concentrated in GBP, EUR and CAD, while JPY and CNY remain notable exceptions." "Our USD “net hedge” indicator moved from an excess hedge position of close to 15% to around half its trailing 12-month level by the July 29 Fed meeting. The speed of that shift highlights how strongly investors had re-engaged with the dollar." "Our data indicate that between July 29 and August 5, net U.S. asset exposure fell from 0.47 to 0.34, a significant drop in the “U.S. exceptionalism” view. However, the long-term average for net U.S. exposure is close to flat – changes in USD hedges tend to track asset values. So overall U.S. exceptionalism remains solid." "Stripping out month-end effects, the data show that the Fed outlook remains material for hedging levels. The Fed will therefore need to remain sensitive to such FX effects, especially if the dollar is increasingly viewed as an inflation pass-through channel." "Express concerns around the Fed through higher USD hedge ratios, rather than outright reductions in U.S. asset exposure."

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Iron Ore Falls on Demand Worries

Iron ore futures declined toward CNY 700 per ton, approaching 14-month lows as weak profitability among Chinese steelmakers continues to constrain the potential for a meaningful recovery in ore demand. Recent data also showed China imported 108.086 million tons of iron ore and concentrates in July, down 4.09% from June but still 3.5% higher than a year earlier. Meanwhile, slower consumer and producer inflation in China last month pointed to persistent weakness in domestic demand. On the supply side, however, tightening shipments continued to offer some support to prices. Industry data showed global iron ore shipments fell by 1.38 million tons in the week through August 9 to around 32 million tons, while volumes arriving at Chinese ports dropped by 13.1 million tons to 18.9 million tons.

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Aluminum Extends Decline

Aluminum futures in the UK fell to around $3,270 per tonne, retreating further from a seven-week high, after Emirates Global Aluminium reaffirmed its timeline to restore full production at the Al Taweelah smelter by Q1 next year, easing concerns over supply from the Gulf. The company was forced to cut output after the smelter was hit by Iranian missiles and drones during the early stages of the war. The restoration is expected to improve supply prospects from the Middle East, which accounted for around 10% of global aluminum production prior to the conflict. Prices had jumped recently amid lower feedstock production at Norsk Hydro’s plant in Brazil, adding to concerns over Gulf supply as uncertainty persisted over a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for regional smelters. Further easing supply fears, the owners of Australia’s largest aluminum smelter secured a $1.8 billion government bailout, allowing operations to continue.

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Equities: AI rally and CPI relief lift US stocks – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 closed just below its record high as US CPI data reduced urgency for further Federal Reserve hikes. Front-end Treasuries rallied and semiconductor strength supported equities, while volatility fell to its lowest level since January. They note that AI-related names and broader US indices continue to benefit from the benign inflation backdrop. US equities buoyed by softer Fed fears "Meanwhile, US equities were the clearer beneficiaries as concerns over imminent Fed hikes eased. The S&P 500 (+0.26%) closed just -0.12% below its record high from August 7, while its equal-weighted equivalent (+0.16%) reached a new high of its own. Both the Nasdaq (+0.54%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.61%) saw larger gains, while the Mag-7 (-1.05%) lost ground. With a CPI risk event being avoided, there was also a sense of an August lull taking hold, as the VIX volatility index fell to its lowest level since January (-0.73pts to 14.55pts)." "The main equity excitement remained in semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +2.49%. That leaves the index up +75.1% year-to-date and +18.7% from its low on July 29 though still -15.3% beneath its June record." "CoreWeave (+19.28%) and Super Micro (+19.02%) both soared yesterday following their upbeat outlooks on Tuesday evening. Nebius (+34.14%) then added to the positive mood before yesterday’s US open, reporting a +454% year-on-year rise in revenue to $582m, alongside stronger-than-expected margins." "Tencent’s results after the Hong Kong close also offered a positive revenue message out of China, with +11% sales growth, though its shares are down -3.81% this morning as profits were weaker-than-expected as the company stepped up AI capex spending. As a result, the Hang Seng (+0.05%) is broadly flat." "Looking at the broader market moves in Asia this morning, the subdued US CPI release and continued tech-rally are also propelling indices forward. South Korea’s KOSPI (+4.46%) has now recovered from its late July lows, putting the index into a technical bull market. Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 (+1.75%) CSI 300 (+0.49%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.42%) are also advancing. Only the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.39%) has pulled back this morning. " "European stock markets were softer yesterday. The Stoxx 600 fell -0.16%, ending a run of 7 consecutive gains. The CAC 40 lost -0.46%, with the DAX (-0.23%) and FTSE 100 (-0.10%) also slipping. Nevertheless, the major European indices remain very close to recent records, with all four indices within 1% of their highs"

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Indian Rupee: Contained inflation supports RBI pause – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s FX team notes India’s July CPI rose slightly to 4.5% year-on-year but stayed within the Reserve Bank of India’s target band, with core inflation steady at 3.9%. The bank expects RBI to keep the repo rate at 5.25% as food and energy pressures remain contained, while FX reserves near USD693bn give ample scope to smooth USD/INR volatility. Stable rupee with strong reserve buffer "July inflation rose slightly more than expected by 4.5% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 4.4%) vs 4.4% in June. It marked the highest reading since December 2024, although it remained within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2-6% target range. Year-to-date, inflation averaged 3.6%, remaining below RBI’s 4.0% mid-point target and its FY2026-2027 forecast of 5.0%." "On monetary policy, the contained inflation reading supports the view that RBI is likely to leave the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the foreseeable future. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said earlier this week that “inflation is more or less under check”, consistent with RBI's relatively sanguine assessment of underlying price pressures." "While RBI expects inflation to rise in the coming months and peak in Q3, the improved monsoon backdrop and partial retreat in crude oil prices have reduced near-term inflation risks. This supports RBI's neutral policy stance and a continued wait-and-see approach. A renewed tightening bias would likely require clearer evidence of second-order pass-through from higher food and energy prices into broader inflation." "RBI has ample firepower to smooth short-term volatility, with FX reserves rising USD10.5bn to USD693bn in the week ending 31 July, equivalent to 10.4 months of import cover. This was the largest weekly increase in six months and lifted reserves to a near three-month high. The increase was supported by inflows under RBI's FCNR(B) deposit scheme, which had attracted USD36.7bn by end-July." "In FX, USD/INR fell 0.1% to 95.33 yesterday. USD/INR has remained within the 94.00-96.80 range for the past two months. There were reports that RBI sold USD in the onshore market to support INR amid elevated crude oil prices"

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Oil: Supply disruptions raise deficit risks – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Oil prices have eased, with Brent crude ending largely flat as US-Iran talks remain in deadlock and Russian port infrastructure escapes major damage. EIA data showed a large US crude inventory build, while International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) forecasts diverge on 2026 demand and supply, highlighting growing deficit risks and Middle East disruption concerns. Inventories surge as deficits loom "Oil prices edged lower through much of yesterday’s session; Brent crude ended the day largely flat. There was little in the way of fresh developments between the US and Iran, with both sides remaining in a deadlock. Meanwhile, the latest large drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port appears to have spared oil infrastructure, with no reports of damage to oil terminals as of now." "The EIA’s weekly report was fairly bearish, with US commercial crude oil inventories increasing by a significant 17.42m barrels over the last week. This is the largest weekly increase since January 2023. Total crude stocks actually rose by 11.31 million barrels once the 6.12 million barrels of SPR releases are included." "The International Energy Agency expects the global oil market to be in a 1.8m b/d deficit in 3Q26, which has grown since last month, given the renewed disruptions in the Middle East. While global oil supply grew by 2.4m b/d in July, it remains 6.3m b/d lower year-on-year, and full-year oil supply is now expected to fall by 4.3m b/d in 2026. Aggressive downward revisions were also made to demand." "The IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 1.6m b/d YoY in 2026 due to Persian Gulf disruptions and elevated fuel prices." "OPEC also released its latest monthly report yesterday. The group remains more upbeat when it comes to demand, expecting global demand to grow by 580k b/d YoY. This seems fairly optimistic given the price levels that we have seen refined products trading this year."

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Banks

August 13, 2026

Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1562 on the US CPI release before reversing to 1.1524. They now see further pullback risks contained within 1.1510–1.1545 intraday and judge that upward momentum has faded, with the pair likely to range-trade between 1.1480 and 1.1580 over the coming 1–3 weeks. Euro-Dollar momentum fades into consolidation "24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR traded in a quiet manner two days ago and closed largely unchanged at 1.1540, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect EUR to trade between 1.1530 and 1.1560. That said, should EUR break above 1.1560, it could trigger a quick rise toward 1.1580.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. EUR spiked to a high of 1.1562 during the NY session and then pulled back sharply to close slightly lower at 1.1524 (-0.14%). Further pullback is not ruled out, but given that downward momentum has not increased significantly, any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1510/1.1545 range." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (11 Aug, spot at 1.1545), we highlighted that “the hurdle for further gains has risen,” and EUR “must close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected." Yesterday, EUR rose briefly to 1.1562 and then pulled back to a low of 1.1519. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1515 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. EUR appears to have entered a range-trading phase. For the time being, we expect EUR to trade within a 1.1480/1.1580 range."

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Gold weakens further below $4,400 as USD sticks to gains amid Fed bets, Iran tensions

Gold struggles to capitalize on Asian session gains to the highest level since June 5. Inflation fears stemming from volatile oil prices keep Fed rate-hike bets on the table. Geopolitical risks further benefit the USD, which contributes to the intraday pullback. Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday retracement slide from the highest level since June 5, around the $4,450 area touched earlier this Thursday, and slides further below the $4,400 mark heading into the European session. The initial market reaction to signs of moderating US inflation fades quickly as investors remain worried that higher energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures. This underpins prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased in line with market expectations, from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY in July. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% and 2.5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, matching consensus estimates. This comes on top of last Friday's weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and gives the Fed more room to hold interest rates steady in September, which offered some support to gold. Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices due to the US-Iran standoff. In fact, President Donald Trump again claimed that the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has pledged to keep the vital waterway closed until all its demands are met. Moreover, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen escalated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, targeting Saudi ships. This has led to increased war-risk premiums, which continue to lend some support to crude oil prices. This continues to fuel inflation fears and backs the case for some Fed tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in a nearly 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in 2026. This, in turn, helps the US Dollar (USD) build on the previous day's bounce from the post-CPI swing low and exerts some downward pressure on the commodity. However, some follow-through selling below the $4,400 mark is needed to back the case for a meaningful corrective decline in the Gold price. Traders now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket, featuring the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive USD demand and provide some impetus to the precious metal. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility across global financial markets and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the Gold price. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis The previous day's close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a subsequent move beyond the 50% retracement level of the April-June downfall favor XAU/USD bulls. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains elevated, reinforcing constructive momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.44 hovers near overbought territory, hinting that upside pressure persists but may be nearing a stretched condition. Hence, strength beyond the daily swing high might confront initial resistance near the 200-day SMA at $4,502. This is closely followed by the 61.8% retracement at $4,525.18, above which the Gold price could climb to the next barriers at $4,683 and $4,885. On the downside, weakness below the 100-day SMA could drag the Gold to the 38.2% Fibo. at $4,302 and the 23.6% level at $4,164.38, before a more significant structural floor emerges near $3,941.47.

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Soybeans Sideways Near Multi-Week Lows

Soybean futures hovered below $1,160 per bushel, trading in a sideways range near multi-week lows as markets weighed a lower US yield forecast against expectations for a record crop. The USDA cut its 2026 soybean yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53, reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest. However, higher planted acreage lifted projected production by 44 million bushels to a record 4.519 billion bushels, up 6% from 2025 and above the previous record set in 2021. The larger crop also pushed projected 2026/27 ending stocks up to 320 million bushels from 310 million previously. While recent heat and dryness supported prices, forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve crop prospects. Meanwhile, China provided a fresh demand boost, with the USDA confirming a sale of 244,000 metric tons of US soybeans for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Corn Holds at 2-Week Top

Corn futures traded above $4.5 per bushel, staying near a two-week high as strong demand and tighter supply forecasts supported prices. The USDA raised its 2025/26 US corn export forecast by 75 million bushels to a record 3.4 billion, citing robust demand from Mexico and other major importers. It also lifted the 2026/27 export outlook by 75 million bushels to 3.275 billion, helping drive projected ending stocks down to 1.653 billion bushels from 1.79 billion previously. Meanwhile, the USDA cut its 2026 corn yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183, below market expectations of 182.4, reflecting the impact of extreme heat and dryness across parts of the Midwest. However, higher planted acreage pushed projected production up to 16.013 billion bushels, slightly above the previous estimate and reinforcing expectations for the second-largest crop on record. Looking ahead, forecasts for cooler temperatures and ample rainfall in August and September could improve crop prospects.

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Markets

August 13, 2026

Copper Slips as China Demand Slows

Copper futures fell below $6.55 per pound on Thursday, reaching an over one-week low as elevated prices weakened demand and discouraged buyers in top consumer China. The Yangshan premium, which reflects the premium paid above the benchmark LME copper price for refined copper imported into China, declined to $96 per ton after reaching $115 a ton last month. However, concerns over tightening supply continued to underpin prices amid expectations for constrained global mine output. Chilean state-owned miner Codelco reportedly expects lower copper production this year as it faces setbacks at its mines and development projects. The company has abandoned its previous target of producing 1.34 million metric tons this year, compared with last year’s revised output of 1.307 million tons. Traders also remained cautious about potential US import tariffs on copper, which have continued to divert metal away from international markets and into US warehouses.

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Gold gains 1.5%

Precious metals rise following U.S. CPI data Gold prices are up more than 1.5% and remain close to their highest levels in around two months following the release of the July U.S. CPI report. The data came in line with expectations: headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core inflation stood at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. The absence of an upside inflation surprise is supportive for precious metals, as following the earlier weakness in U.S. labor market data, it reduces pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates again as soon as September. Gold is trading around $4,420 per ounce. Following the CPI release, futures markets are pricing in around a 60% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September, compared with just over 45% a week earlier. This is an important shift for gold, as a lower risk of further rate increases reduces the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Today’s move extends the stronger momentum already visible after the weaker U.S. jobs report. Gold posted its strongest weekly performance since January last week and on Tuesday reached its highest level since June 5. Demand factors unrelated directly to Fed policy also remain important. Renewed ETF inflows, central bank purchases and strong demand from China are supporting the market, helping gold remain resilient even amid persistent pressure from elevated energy prices. Inflation risks have not disappeared entirely. Oil remains expensive amid tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and persistently high fuel prices could complicate the disinflation process in the coming months and limit the Fed’s room to ease monetary policy. Gold’s reaction nevertheless suggests that investors are currently placing greater weight on the combination of a softer labor market and CPI coming in line with consensus. Unless upcoming data show a renewed acceleration in price pressures, expectations for another near-term Fed rate hike may gradually fade. From the perspective of the gold market, today’s CPI report can therefore be viewed as moderately positive. The data were not weak enough to fundamentally change the Fed’s narrative, but at the same time they provided no argument for an urgent continuation of monetary tightening. This matters in the current market environment: gold is benefiting simultaneously from a lower risk of further rate hikes, institutional demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The key question now is whether the metal can use this backdrop to stage a sustained breakout above its recent local highs. Gold chart (D1 interval) Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Brazil: Lula victory could deepen fiscal risks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts Brendan McKenna and Dev Ashish outline scenarios for Brazil’s 2026 election, assigning a 65% probability to President Lula winning a fourth term and 30% to Flavio. They argue another Lula administration would feature loose fiscal policy, rising debt and continued state intervention, with congress composition crucial for Brazil’s debt trajectory and broader macro stability. Election scenarios and fiscal trajectory "We believe Brazil will push back on Latin America’s broad shift to the political right and President Lula will secure a 4th term in office." "Base Case (65%): Lula capitalizes on resilient local economic and markets trends as well as slowing opposition momentum." "Flavio Wins (30%): Would need to be cleared of alleged connections to local scandals and/or for Lula to make a policy mistake." "Lula 1st round win (5%): Allegations surrounding Flavio intensify and a replacement candidate is chosen too late in the electoral cycle." "Another Lula administration is likely to resemble prior terms: loose fiscal, rising debt and state intervention across the economy."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Emerging Markets: Steepening Treasuries curb appeal – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that sovereign bonds from commodity-based EM economies have seen accelerated selling after the Fed decision, despite a weaker Dollar and lower U.S. real yields. South Africa failed to attract inflows even with higher Gold prices, as EM duration remains challenged by insufficient nominal yields, inflation risks and fiscal stress versus comfortable U.S. yield dynamics. Commodity-linked bonds face duration headwinds "Sovereign debt issued by commodity-based EM economies normally benefits from USD-funded trades in a dovish Fed environment, but selling accelerated after the Fed decision. There are some early signs of reversal, yet South Africa, which should be one of the clearest beneficiaries of higher gold prices, failed to register a single inflow session until a full week after the decision. This suggests the environment remains difficult for EM duration." "Front- and back-end nominal yields are simply not high enough to compensate for inflation risk and fiscal stress. Given the current global growth outlook and the unexpected fiscal burden arising from the Iran conflict, we have some sympathy with this view. Central banks can’t impose fiscal discipline in the way bond markets can, and the required price adjustment hasn’t yet been reached for a sustained EM asset recovery." "Despite high inflation, developed market sovereign bonds found strong domestic support throughout the Iran conflict. Local investors don’t face FX risk, while limited movement in breakevens keeps real yields attractive. This remains broadly true in Europe, but the Fed decision was a game-changer for U.S. breakevens: the 5y5y forward measure has risen 20bp over the past month and almost 30bp from its March lows." "Even so, the decline in U.S. real yields has been insufficient to generate strong flows into commodity-linked bonds because Treasury curve steepening has offset much of the benefit. The weaker-dollar view is intact, but that doesn’t automatically translate into stronger commodity prices or stronger commodity-linked economies, particularly while U.S. investors remain comfortable with domestic nominal and real yields." "Commodity economies therefore need to generate their own growth and total-return narrative before they can fully benefit from easier global financial conditions. The earlier combination of a wide yield advantage over the U.S. and strong Chinese demand boosting export revenues isn’t returning."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

US Dollar: Bearish momentum extends after CPI – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists note that July US inflation came in broadly in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.1% m/m and core CPI increasing 0.2% m/m. They see contained tariff pass-through and signs of normalization in services inflation as reducing the need for tighter Federal Reserve policy, while maintaining their view that the Fed will keep its policy stance unchanged this year. Dollar weakens as Fed seen on hold "Consumer price inflation matched expectations in July, with the headline rising 0.1% m/m (0.074% before rounding; TD: 0.15%, consensus: 0.1%). This was partly explained by still retreating energy prices (gasoline -3% m/m) and slowing food inflation." "The core segment also printed on top of expectations, growing 0.2% m/m (0.215% before rounding; TD: 0.20%, consensus: 0.2%). The rebound in the core was broad-based with both services and goods resuming modest momentum after a soft June showing. As expected, the supercore bounced back to 0.19% m/m after falling 0.20% in the last report." "Notably, July's goods prices indicate tariff passthrough was firm, with some categories exposed to trade picking up. With that said, passthrough remains modest. Vehicle prices, communication, recreation, and other goods were among the key drivers of strength in the goods basket. All in, we expect July CPI data to translate into slightly softer core PCE inflation at 0.18% m/m." "Today's report should continue to bring relief to the Fed regarding the need for tighter policy, at least in the near horizon. Signs of normalization in services prices along with tariff pass-through that remains under control bode well for concerns around sticky core inflation. All in, we remain of the view that the Fed will keep its policy stance unchanged this year." "Markets remain relatively unchanged in the wake of the July report, with the pricing for a hike in the September meeting still sitting just under 50%. All in all, the print is supportive of a Fed hold, but we are still waiting on further data before the September meeting since the Fed has lowered the bar for a rate hike. In addition, the PPI report carries some risks to our 0.18% m/m preliminary PCE forecast."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Brazil: Lula victory could deepen fiscal risks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts Brendan McKenna and Dev Ashish outline scenarios for Brazil’s 2026 election, assigning a 65% probability to President Lula winning a fourth term and 30% to Flavio. They argue another Lula administration would feature loose fiscal policy, rising debt and continued state intervention, with congress composition crucial for Brazil’s debt trajectory and broader macro stability. Election scenarios and fiscal trajectory "We believe Brazil will push back on Latin America’s broad shift to the political right and President Lula will secure a 4th term in office." "Base Case (65%): Lula capitalizes on resilient local economic and markets trends as well as slowing opposition momentum." "Flavio Wins (30%): Would need to be cleared of alleged connections to local scandals and/or for Lula to make a policy mistake." "Lula 1st round win (5%): Allegations surrounding Flavio intensify and a replacement candidate is chosen too late in the electoral cycle." "Another Lula administration is likely to resemble prior terms: loose fiscal, rising debt and state intervention across the economy."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

British Pound: Improving sentiment supports gains against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is posting fractional gains versus the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming G10 peers as improving sentiment supports price action. They point to Thursday’s United Kingdom (UK) data, including Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and production figures, as key. Short-term technicals are bullish, with RSI at fresh highs, upside targets in the mid-1.35s to mid-1.36s, and support near 1.3400 and a near-term range of 1.3480–1.3580. Pound leads G10 with bullish technicals "The pound is showing fractional gains vs. the USD and outperforming all of the G10 currencies in mixed trade." "Fundamental releases have been limited and we continue to highlight the importance of Thursday’s data that include the preliminary (2nd) Q2 GDP figures, and monthly trade and industrial production data." "The next upside target is the mid-July high in the mid-1.35s and we also note the May 1 peak in the mid-1.36s." "Support is expected at 1.3400. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3480 and 1.3580."

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Earnings

August 12, 2026

Was Michael Burry wrong Nebius shares jump 16% after earnings report

Shares in Nebius Group (NBIS.US) soared by over 14–16% in pre-market trading, reaching around $225.30 (having previously closed at $193.23). The key drivers behind this surge were strong second-quarter financial results and a significant upward revision to operational forecasts, which far exceeded market expectations. The company’s current pre-market share price. Source: Yahoo Finance What surprised the market the most? (Key figures for Q2) Nebius demonstrated not only tremendous revenue growth, but above all a massive surge in operating profitability: Total revenue: $582.3 million (an increase of +454% year-on-year ), exceeding the analysts’ consensus ($557–$572.75 million). Revenue from the AI Cloud segment: $574.9 million (accounting for approximately 98% of the business as a whole; year-on-year growth for the segment exceeded 500%). Adjusted EBITDA: $236.2 million – significantly exceeding market estimates of $157.9 million. AI Cloud’s Adjusted EBITDA margin: It jumped to 50% (compared with 24% in Q4 2025). Annual recurring revenue (ARR): This reached $3 billion at the end of June, representing a sharp increase from the $1.9 billion reported at the end of March. Upward revision of capacity forecasts (2026 Guidance): The company has raised its target for contracted power at the end of 2026 from the original >4 GW to 5 GW (a five-fold increase in this figure since August 2025). Why such an enthusiastic reaction from investors? The market’s positive reception stems from several key fundamental factors: Pricing power and rising demand for AI infrastructure: Nebius is raising its prices for computing power rentals, capitalising on the huge demand for NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs). Contracts worth billions: In the past quarter, the company secured four landmark AI Cloud contracts , each with an average value of over $1 billion . The total value of contracts secured increased almost fourfold compared with the previous quarter. Financial security (Prepayments): Around 70% of the contracts signed during this period included prepayments from customers, which cover between 50% and 60% of the associated capital expenditure (CapEx). Business confidence: The fact that the company has maintained its full-year forecasts for 2026 and is continuing to expand its infrastructure shows that it is consolidating its leading position in the so-called neoclouds sector. Market Crash: The Michael Burry Story and the Spectre of a Short Squeeze The most interesting backdrop to this rally is the recent moves by the legendary investor Michael Burry. Burry’s short position: Just a few days before the results were published, Burry disclosed that he had opened a short position in Nebius shares at a price of $211.77 , describing the move as “like shooting fish in a barrel”. Potential for a short squeeze: With the short float standing at around 31% , such a strong upward momentum is forcing investors betting on a fall to hastily close their positions (buying back shares from the market), which could create an additional wave of demand and drive the valuation even higher. If the company’s shares open at their current pre-market levels, they will break above the 50-day EMA and the zone of recent local highs, which could invalidate the recent resistance zones. Source: xStation

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Trade of the Day: US100

Facts The US inflation data for July provided no surprises; both the headline and core measures moderated to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. The market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike currently stands at approximately 50%. Tomorrow at 12:30 PM, data regarding PPI inflation and weekly US jobless claims will be published. The RSI (14) indicator does not suggest that the US100 is overbought. The MACD indicator does not currently signal a change in the uptrend. Recommendation Position: Long (BUY) on the US100 at market price (29869.59). Target Price (Take Profit): 30900 (TP) Stop Loss (SL): 29085 Figure 1: US100 (29.10.2025 - 12.08.2026) Source: xStation, 12.08.2026 (1:39 PM) Opinion The July US inflation reading yielded no surprises. Both measures remained consistent with expectations, on both an annual and monthly basis. For the market, however, this proved sufficient to sustain dovish repricing regarding the projected path of Federal Reserve interest rates. Figure 2: Fed Implied Policy Path Before the July Inflation Reading [Number of Hikes] (2025-2026) Source: XTB Research, 12.08.2026 Figure 3: Fed Implied Policy Path After the July Inflation Reading [Number of Hikes] (2025-2026) Source: XTB Research, 12.08.2026 It appears the market is increasingly convinced that the FOMC will maintain interest rates at the current level in September. A further decline in valuations in this regard should provide support for the US equity market. The opportunity for further reducing bets on interest rate hikes will arise tomorrow, driven by the PPI inflation reading and weekly jobless claims (both to be released at 12:30 PM). Subsequently, there will be an extended period of silence on the geopolitical front, which, in the absence of major developments in the Middle East, may allow investors to refocus on the concluding earnings season. This has proven exceptionally successful for US companies. In the case of the S&P 500, over 85% of companies reported earnings per share (EPS) exceeding expectations, representing the strongest result in this regard since the second quarter of 2021. Company profits were, on average, nearly 30% higher than the consensus, although this figure was slightly distorted by unrealised net gains from securities reported by Alphabet and Amazon. The US100 index remains approximately 3.5% below its June peak. However, it is recovering losses following a recent correction. Compared to the low from the final days of July, the appreciation has reached nearly 9.5%. We expect a continuation of the uptrend. From a technical perspective, this is supported by the configuration of moving averages (EMA 50 above EMA 100 and EMA 150), the MACD histogram, and the RSI (57.3) indicator, which still does not suggest overbought conditions. Methodology The recommendation was prepared based on a fundamental analysis of US macroeconomic data and an assessment within the context of market valuations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The direction of the recommendation was determined by evaluating the prospects for the aforementioned valuations and analysing the results of Nasdaq 100 companies in the second quarter of the year. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were determined using key psychological levels (TP at 30900, slightly below the ATH) and Fibonacci retracements (SL at 29085, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci level).

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Earnings

August 12, 2026

CoreWeave earnings: Reassured shareholders, double-digit gains

The “neo-cloud” company published its results for the latest quarter. The stock has suffered severe losses on the chart over recent months; since June alone, it is down about 50%. The sell-off was driven by growing doubts about investments in AI and, above all, who will ultimately be the real beneficiary. While the business model and the way the company finances its capital expenditures still leave a lot to be desired, operationally the company pushed many investors’ concerns into the background. The shares are up about 18% at the open after the release. Earnings Weak sentiment may have helped the reception to some extent, but it should be stated clearly that the release is good and shows not only nominal growth, but above all an improvement in quality. Revenue exceeded USD 2.57 billion versus expectations of USD 2.56 billion. The beat was minimal, although it still represents growth of more than 100%. Backlog increased to USD 104.2 billion, nearly 5% quarter over quarter. The real surprise was operating profitability. Favorable pricing on new contracts points to rapid monetization of deployed capacity, which is crucial for a company with this business model. Operating profit came in at USD 128 million, almost twice the expected USD 66 million. In addition, the operating margin rose to 5%. That is nearly a fivefold increase versus the previous quarter. Despite a significant beat, CoreWeave is still the same company. Net loss was USD 567 million, though that is less than the roughly USD 677 million expected. The loss is a consequence of the company’s investments. CAPEX totaled USD 9.35 billion, above the upper end of market expectations at around USD 9 billion. If not for this, the market reaction to the results would likely have been better. Guidance Management’s guidance supports the thesis that the company’s fundamentals are improving. Annual revenue is expected to exceed USD 12.4 billion. ARR is expected to rise to more than USD 18.5 billion by year end. Profit could potentially reach as much as USD 1.15 billion. CAPEX is projected at USD 35 to 39 billion, versus the prior USD 31 to 35 billion. Conclusion CoreWeave delivered an excellent report that beat market expectations where it needed to, and at a time when investors most needed a reason to keep believing in the company. The operational improvement is visible and real; it is also hard to expect results to deteriorate meaningfully in the near term. Most important for the bull case is that the company retains enormous operating leverage, which is only beginning to show up in the numbers. Revenue is posting double-digit growth, but EBITDA and margins are rising even faster. Even the net loss has narrowed clearly, and the company is close to turning net profitable. If the current growth pace is maintained, shareholder profits could be enormous within just a few quarters. However, that is not the end of the story. The difference between EBIT and EBITDA is as much as USD 1.3 billion. This stems from the massive amortization and depreciation the company records. This is one of the key weaknesses of data center based businesses, though unlike CoreWeave, for most of them it is ordinary infrastructure rather than the primary vehicle for making money. Coverage of liabilities is only 0.41; while the company can afford this for now, a material deterioration in conditions or sentiment in the corporate debt market could make it insolvent. CoreWeave remains one of the most one-sided and risky bets on the AI revolution, but the current earnings call shifted the center of gravity toward gains. CoreWeave technical analysis (D1) The long-term trend on the chart remains moderately negative, which is clearly visible when drawing a broad descending channel from the peak in mid-2025. In the short term, the situation is also problematic due to frequent dips below the 200-day EMA. However, the latest earnings call should help the stock break above the 200-day EMA and move close to the upper boundary of the downtrend, creating a chance to break the negative technical streak. A strong resistance zone around USD 69 clearly provides a hard floor that supply has not been able to break below, and there are few signs that this is about to change. Source: xStation5

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Earnings

August 12, 2026

Lumentum earnings: The photonics industry is accelerating thanks to AI

Lumentum’s Q2 FY2026 earnings call went clearly better than expected, and an even bigger positive surprise was the outlook for the coming months. The optical components manufacturer is benefiting from a further sharp rise in investment in AI data centers, which is driving demand for optical switches and advanced lasers. The company’s shares are up about 8% at the open in post-earnings trading. Earnings The company’s revenue exceeded the psychological threshold of USD 1,00 billion, versus market expectations of around USD 988 million.This represents growth of about 109% year over year and 24% quarter over quarter. This represents growth of about 109% year over year and 24% quarter over quarter. EPS reached USD 3.23, beating the consensus of about USD 2.9 to 3.0.Earnings per share rose by a staggering 267% year over year, materially above even the optimistic end of management’s guidance. Earnings per share rose by a staggering 267% year over year, materially above even the optimistic end of management’s guidance. This outsized profit growth was one of the key elements for investors. Non-GAAP gross margin increased to 50.4% from 47.9% in the prior quarter, while operating margin reached 36.6%, exceeding the upper end of the company’s earlier forecast. The reported GAAP net loss of USD 7.16 billion looks dramatic, but it does not reflect Lumentum’s operating condition.It stems primarily from a one-off, non-cash accounting loss related to debt conversion. It stems primarily from a one-off, non-cash accounting loss related to debt conversion. Lumentum is effectively using strong demand to bring to market a more favorable product mix. The growth is not only large but also higher quality and, as company representatives claim, it is only the beginning. Guidance This is clearly the strongest point of the earnings release. Lumentum management expects revenue in the range of USD 1.225 to 1.275 billion. The prior consensus was about USD 1.16 billion. Adjusted EPS guidance is USD 4.05 to 4.35, versus expectations of around USD 3.60. Conclusion The main growth engine remains infrastructure built for artificial intelligence. The company is at the forefront of the photonics industry, meaning the use of optical components to transmit data. This industry will likely be absolutely crucial in the next stages of AI infrastructure buildout. That follows from hard limits of today’s data center architecture. Traditional cables and switches imply an upper speed limit based on the physical properties of the components. In addition, these components heat up, wasting energy by converting it into heat first, and then again when that same heat has to be removed to maintain operational efficiency. Photonics uses lasers, fiber optics, and glass to avoid most of these problems, while increasing transmission speeds close to the limit set by our current understanding of the laws of physics. Until recently, large-scale deployment of photonics simply did not make sense. But in the face of unprecedented investment and an insatiable appetite among technology companies for computing power, this field is shifting from a curiosity into a foundation of the entire investment boom. The results are only starting to show up in the numbers. OCS switch shipments doubled versus the previous quarter, and in the next period their sales are expected to clearly exceed USD 100 million. The company is also ramping production of 1.6T transceivers as well as EML, CW, and high-power lasers. Demand remains strong enough that production capacity in some categories still limits the pace of order fulfillment. The results confirm that Lumentum is one of the main beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout. At the same time, the very high share valuation means the market is expecting further upward revisions to guidance and near-flawless scaling of production. Assessing the attractiveness of the stock itself is becoming increasingly demanding, especially after a strong rise in the share price. Lumentum technical analysis (D1) Despite a significant repricing in April to June, the uptrend was defended after a rebound from around 620. The price has moved away from the EMA200, and as long as it remains above the 100% Fibonacci level of the previous upward wave, the technical picture remains bullish, with a potential move toward the peak marked by the 161.8% Fibonacci level. Source: xStation5

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Cryptocurrencies

August 12, 2026

Crypto News: Bitcoin Is Building a Bottom but Still Lags Wall Street. Have Whales Stopped Selling?

Key takeaways Bitcoin’s largest holders have shifted from selling to accumulation after offloading roughly $40 billion worth of BTC since October 2025, potentially signaling that one of the market’s key sources of supply pressure is fading. Institutional capital is starting to return to crypto, with digital asset funds recording a fifth consecutive week of inflows and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting around $853.5 million over the past week. The macro backdrop is becoming less restrictive for BTC following weaker U.S. labor market data, although a more decisive move toward $100,000 would likely require a stronger shift in Fed expectations toward lower interest rates. Despite improving fund flows and renewed whale accumulation, Bitcoin continues to significantly underperform Wall Street, suggesting that the current setup looks more like a bottoming process than the confirmed start of a new bull market. Bitcoin is attempting to regain its footing after a weak start to the year. There are early signs that the most aggressive phase of selling pressure may already be behind us. Nevertheless, the crypto market remains weak. According to CoinShares, the largest BTC holders have shifted from selling to accumulation, while crypto funds have recorded a fifth consecutive week of inflows. At the same time, weaker U.S. labor market data have reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, taking some pressure off high-volatility assets. The problem is that Bitcoin continues to significantly underperform equities on a relative basis, and there is still no confirmation of a lasting change in this trend — something also reflected in on-chain data. Short-term fundamentals are therefore improving faster than the price itself would suggest, which may point to an ongoing bottoming process rather than the obvious beginning of a new, powerful bullish impulse. Have Bitcoin whales stopped selling? One of the most important changes currently taking place in the market is the behavior of the largest BTC holders. According to CoinShares data, whales have sold roughly $40 billion worth of Bitcoin since October 2025, creating one of the largest sources of selling pressure in the current cycle. That process, however, has started to fade. CoinShares points to three consecutive weeks of accumulation among the largest holders, a pattern that has historically appeared at similar stages of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. If this shift proves sustainable, the market could be losing one of the key sources of supply that has weighed on prices in recent months. Since October 2025, whales have sold around $40 billion worth of BTC. Bitcoin has now recorded three consecutive weeks of accumulation, and if the price begins to recover toward $70,000, the cyclical low may already be behind the market. This does not automatically mean the beginning of a new bull market. Until the autumn, consolidation and a potential test of the $80,000 area may be more likely, although a decline toward $50,000 or below also remains possible. This distinction is important: the end of a major selling wave removes a significant headwind, but does not by itself create enough demand to establish a sustainable uptrend. If fresh supply emerges, Bitcoin could deepen its losses and experience a percentage decline comparable with previous bear markets. Capital is slowly returning to crypto funds A more positive signal comes from capital flows. Digital asset investment products attracted approximately $1.05 billion in the week ended August 7, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows. This looks particularly interesting against the preceding eight-week period, during which investors withdrew a record $8 billion. In a relatively short period, the market has therefore shifted from aggressive exposure reduction toward renewed accumulation. A similar picture can be seen in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. They attracted around $853.5 million in the week ended August 7, the strongest result since mid-April. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone accounted for roughly $700 million of those flows, while its net assets stood at approximately $48.5 billion. Combined with the fading selling pressure from whales, this creates a more constructive supply-demand setup than just a few weeks ago. The largest holders are reducing the amount of BTC they bring to market just as institutional capital is beginning to return. However, investor interest in equities and equity funds remains clearly stronger than demand for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The Fed remains key to a return toward $100,000 U.S. interest rates remain the most important macroeconomic catalyst for Bitcoin. Weaker labor market data have reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, helping BTC rebound from this year’s lows. According to the CoinShares scenario, however, simply scaling back rate-hike expectations may not be enough to trigger a much larger move. A return toward $100,000 would likely require clearer signs of deterioration in employment and a more pronounced shift in market expectations toward lower interest rates. The market therefore remains in an uncomfortable position. The data are weak enough to ease concerns about further monetary tightening, but not yet weak enough to force the Fed into a decisively more dovish stance. The Jackson Hole symposium could provide more clues, although CoinShares does not expect an explicitly dovish message from the central bank. Oil remains another important variable. De-escalation around Iran could reduce energy prices and inflationary pressure, indirectly improving the macro environment for Bitcoin, while renewed escalation could quickly reverse this effect. Bitcoin continues to lag Wall Street This is the strongest argument against declaring the end of crypto weakness too early. Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has yet to regain relative strength against major equity indices. Over the past 90 days, BTC has fallen around 20%, while the S&P 500 has gained approximately 5%. The divergence is even greater year-to-date. Bitcoin is down around 35% and altcoins have lost an average of 57%, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are up approximately 38% and 31%, respectively. Some commodities have performed even better, with gold up around 60%, copper 66%, and silver 107%. Glassnode describes the current setup as an equity-led market. In other words, improving flows and whale accumulation are constructive signals, but the real test will come when Bitcoin starts consistently outperforming the major stock indices. July brought an important shift — what about regulation? The first signs of such a change may have emerged in July. During a sharp correction in AI and semiconductor stocks, chip ETFs fell by more than 20% and the Nasdaq 100 declined almost 7%. Over the same month, Bitcoin gained around 9% and Ethereum rose 20%. Just a few months earlier, such divergence would have been much less likely because of BTC’s very strong correlation with technology stocks. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq reached 0.89 in May, while K33 Research data showed that its 30-day correlation had fallen to 0.43 by late July. BlackRock argues that Bitcoin’s declining dependence on equities increases its potential usefulness as a portfolio diversifier. This could become one of the more important trends to watch over the coming months. If Bitcoin can continue to perform relatively well during Nasdaq corrections, its narrative may gradually shift away from being perceived primarily as a “technology risk-on asset” and toward becoming a more independent asset class. The weaker part of the picture remains U.S. regulation. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has fallen to only around 15% on Polymarket. The Senate is not expected to vote on the crypto market-structure bill before the summer recess. CoinShares nevertheless believes that a delay would be more problematic for Ethereum and stablecoin-related projects than for Bitcoin itself. At the same time, the debate in Washington is increasingly shifting away from questions about crypto’s legitimacy or its place in the financial system and toward ethical concerns — particularly whether public officials should be allowed to issue and profit from their own tokens. Has Bitcoin already built a bottom? The market picture has become noticeably more constructive, but one element is still missing: confirmation from price action. On the one hand, the multibillion-dollar selling wave from the largest holders is fading, funds are attracting capital again, and the interest-rate environment is becoming less restrictive. On the other hand, Bitcoin remains one of the weakest major assets of 2026 and has yet to regain an advantage over equities. The current setup therefore looks more like a bottoming process than the confirmed beginning of another bull-market leg. What is particularly interesting, however, is the changing market structure: lower supply from whales is meeting returning institutional demand at the same time as Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq begins to decline. The next phase will largely depend on three factors: Fed policy, the behavior of the largest BTC holders, and whether inflows into ETFs and other investment products can be sustained. If these factors are accompanied by improving relative strength against Wall Street, the argument that Bitcoin remains trapped in an equity-dominated market will begin to weaken. Only then would there be much stronger evidence that the current cycle of Bitcoin weakness has genuinely come to an end. Bitcoin chart (D1 interval) BTC remains well below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest major downward move, located around $73,000. Bitcoin is clearly struggling to initiate a strong rebound from current levels and has twice encountered significant resistance around $65,000–66,000. The $60,000–62,000 area appears to be an important support zone, reinforced by previous price reactions. A break below $60,000 could point to another stronger bearish impulse and potentially new lows in the ongoing bear market. Source: xStation5 Bitcoin ETF flows Recent weeks have brought significant volatility in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, but the latest reading of approximately +$4.9 million effectively points to a balance between demand and supply. This represents a clear improvement from the previous session, when outflows reached roughly $180 million, although a single positive day is not enough to confirm a lasting return of capital. Looking more broadly, July and early August saw large inflows exceeding $200 million alternate with equally sharp outflows, highlighting the lack of clear conviction among investors. BlackRock remains the main source of demand during inflow sessions, while flows across other funds are considerably less consistent — a pattern that is also visible over longer periods. For Bitcoin, the more constructive signal would therefore not be one exceptionally strong inflow session, but a series of positive days showing that institutional investors are once again systematically building exposure. Source: XTB Research Cumulative Bitcoin ETF flows After 649 sessions since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, cumulative net flows remain impressive at approximately $50.9 billion, highlighting the scale of structural demand that has developed around the asset class. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust is the clear leader, with inflows exceeding $61.2 billion, while Fidelity has attracted more than $10.1 billion, demonstrating the strong concentration of capital in the two largest products. The main counterweight remains Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which has recorded more than $25.6 billion in outflows — without this supply, the cumulative result for the entire segment would be significantly higher. Importantly, the group’s overall balance remains positive despite periods of heavy outflows in 2026, making it difficult to argue that Bitcoin’s long-term institutionalization trend has reversed. The key takeaway, however, is that the success of Bitcoin ETFs has been highly uneven: the market has clearly picked its winners, with BlackRock emerging as the dominant gateway for investors seeking regulated BTC exposure. Source: XTB Research Bitcoin ETFs compared with the largest traditional-market ETFs Cumulative inflows of approximately $50.9 billion put spot Bitcoin ETFs in an interesting position relative to some of the largest products in the traditional ETF market. Over a comparable period since launch, the Bitcoin ETF segment has already attracted more capital than the flows shown for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, Vanguard Information Technology ETF and SPDR Gold Shares, although it still trails the largest Vanguard and iShares broad-equity funds. Particularly notable is the speed at which Bitcoin has built this capital base — U.S. spot ETFs have only been operating since January 2024. The data confirm that spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the key bridges connecting crypto with the traditional asset-management industry, although the pace of inflows has clearly weakened in recent months. For Bitcoin, the most important point is therefore not simply the $50.9 billion figure, but the fact that BTC has built an investment product capable of competing for capital with some of the world’s largest and most recognizable ETFs in such a short period. Source: XTB Research Largest ETF inflows and outflows versus Bitcoin’s price Comparing extreme ETF flows with Bitcoin’s price shows that ETFs are an important part of the market structure, but they should certainly not be treated as a simple buy or sell indicator. The largest historical inflows have often occurred near local peaks or during mature stages of bullish impulses, when rising prices attracted additional capital rather than initiating a new rally. The same mechanism works in reverse: the largest outflows often appear after substantial declines, when investors reduce exposure in response to deteriorating momentum. This is an important observation because it suggests that ETF flows are partly reactive and can amplify an existing trend rather than anticipate it. With Bitcoin trading around $64,200, the key signal would therefore not be a single strong inflow session, but sustained positive flows over several consecutive weeks. Only such a change would provide stronger evidence of a more durable return of institutional demand. Source: XTB Research

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Markets

August 12, 2026

US Inflation Slows as Core CPI Matches Forecast at 2.5%

US Annual Core Inflation Matches Forecasts at 2.5% The US core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, eased for the second month to 2.5% in July 2026, the lowest in five months, matching market forecasts. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% in July, after being flat in the prior month and in line with market expectations. US Core Consumer Prices Rise as Expected Core consumer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in July of 2026, gaining traction from the hold in the previous month, and in line with market expectations. Prices rose sharply for medical care devices (0.6% vs -0.1% in June), transportation services (0.3% vs -0.3%), and used cars and trucks (0.4% vs -0.2%). Meanwhile, inflation was softer for shelter (0.1% vs 0.1%). From the previous year, core consumer prices rose by 2.5%. US Inflation Rate Slows as Expected The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a second consecutive month to 3.4% in July 2026, from 3.5% in June, in line with market expectations and easing further from the 2023 high of 4.2% reached in May. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.4% decline in June, which marked the first monthly drop since May 2020, also as expected. The index for shelter rose 0.1%, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all items increase. In contrast, energy prices were down 1.5%. Core consumer prices went up 0.2%, following a flat reading in June, while the annual core inflation rate eased to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month, matching forecasts.

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Morgan Stanley Issues a “Space-Age” Forecast for SpaceX. Norges Bank Reveals Its Position

SpaceX is up just under 1% ahead of the U.S. market open after Norges Bank disclosed a position of 7.3 million shares in the company. Elon Musk’s flagship business is becoming increasingly difficult to analyze solely through the lens of rockets and Starlink. Since its stock market debut, a growing part of the valuation debate has shifted toward AI, potential orbital data centers, and the acquisition of Cursor. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and a $300 base-case price target, while its bull case sees the shares reaching $600. At that level, SpaceX would be valued at roughly $8 trillion, potentially making it the world’s largest publicly traded company. The key point, however, is that the path toward such a valuation depends largely on businesses that have yet to reach the scale assumed in the most optimistic forecasts. $600 is a transformation scenario, not a conventional growth case Morgan Stanley’s bull case assumes much more than an increase in rocket launches or continued growth in Starlink subscribers. In practice, it envisions SpaceX evolving from a space and telecommunications company into a global infrastructure operator combining orbital transportation, satellite connectivity, and AI computing capacity. Starship remains the most important piece of that equation. Morgan Stanley assumes the fully reusable system will eventually fly frequently and cheaply enough to materially reduce the cost of deploying computing infrastructure into orbit. Under the bullish scenario, the cost of building orbital computing capacity could fall to roughly half its current level. This distinction matters from a valuation perspective. A successful Starship creates value on its own, but substantially greater optionality emerges if cheaper access to orbit enables entirely new markets. Morgan Stanley is therefore assuming not only the success of a product, but also the emergence of an economic ecosystem that barely exists today. Starlink could eventually connect more than just people The second pillar of the $600 scenario is a major expansion of Starlink’s addressable market. Over the longer term, the network could provide connectivity not only to households, businesses and mobile devices, but also to autonomous AI-powered machines. Morgan Stanley’s scenario assumes that by 2040, hundreds of millions — potentially even billions — of robots could be connected through Starlink, generating average monthly revenue per user of around $35. If such a market develops, Starlink’s economics could look fundamentally different from what they do today. The satellite network would no longer be merely an alternative way of accessing the internet; it could become a global communications layer for autonomous devices. At the same time, this is one of the most distant assumptions embedded in the valuation. Investors assigning value to this opportunity today must account not only for SpaceX’s technological execution risk, but also for uncertainty surrounding the pace of global automation and future competition in machine-to-machine connectivity. Cursor is becoming an important part of the SpaceX valuation story The roughly $60 billion acquisition of Cursor significantly expands SpaceX’s exposure to AI. The all-stock transaction is expected to close before the end of August. Cursor develops an AI platform that helps programmers write, edit, debug and analyze code, and the service is reportedly used by more than 50,000 companies and over 64% of Fortune 500 firms. The strategic value of the transaction therefore extends beyond the product itself. SpaceX gains an established distribution channel into corporate customers, a substantial user base, and access to data generated through interactions between developers and AI models. The two companies have already been working together since April, including on training Grok 4.5 using Cursor data and integrating the model into the platform. Strategically, the acquisition could shorten the path between AI model development and commercial deployment. Morgan Stanley expects extremely rapid growth from Cursor The forecasts for the acquired business are aggressive. Morgan Stanley estimates Cursor could generate around $2.5 billion in revenue in 2026 and $13 billion in 2027, representing roughly 10% and 19% of projected SpaceX AI revenue, respectively. Annual recurring revenue is expected to reach approximately $8 billion by the end of this year and around $33 billion by 2030. Under those assumptions, the $60 billion acquisition price begins to look very different. If Cursor actually approaches $33 billion in ARR, the current transaction value would represent less than two times that future recurring revenue base. The main risk sits on the cost side. Rapid AI revenue growth can require equally aggressive spending on data centers, energy and computing accelerators. For SpaceX’s long-term valuation, Cursor’s ability to convert growth into durable cash flow may therefore matter just as much as the headline revenue numbers. Morgan Stanley currently estimates that the AI business accounts for roughly $12 per SpaceX share, implying a discount to some competing neocloud businesses. Morgan Stanley has also previously argued that a share price around $100 would effectively imply that the market was assigning no value to SpaceX’s AI operations. That helps explain why valuation scenarios for the company are so unusually wide. Rockets and Starlink are already functioning businesses backed by real infrastructure, customers and substantial barriers to entry. AI, orbital data centers and future connectivity for autonomous machines represent optionality. Much of the potential upside therefore does not come from simply scaling existing operations, but from SpaceX successfully creating several new revenue streams. Wall Street is bullish, but the valuation range is enormous Among the 32 analysts covering SpaceX, the average price target stands at roughly $227. The dispersion, however, is arguably more informative than the consensus itself. Raymond James sees $800, Morgan Stanley $300, J.P. Morgan $240, Deutsche Bank $235, Goldman Sachs $220, Wells Fargo $215, UBS $210 and Citi $200. Arete recently raised its target from $401 to $450 while maintaining a Buy rating. At the other end of the spectrum, Piper Sandler has a $140 target and a Hold rating, CFRA sees $115 with a Sell rating, while Phillip Securities values the shares at $75. A $75–800 range is exceptionally wide even for a high-growth technology company. It suggests that the biggest disagreement among analysts is not necessarily over the value of SpaceX’s existing businesses, but over how much value should be assigned today to businesses that may emerge over the next decade or more. Morningstar takes a considerably more conservative approach. Its estimates put the core Starlink and launch businesses at roughly $40 per share. Additional value comes from more speculative projects, while its “Moonshot” scenario reaches approximately $154 per share and is assigned only a 7% probability. Morgan Stanley’s own $75 bear case is equally revealing. Within a single analytical framework, SpaceX’s potential value varies eightfold between the bearish and most optimistic scenarios. Such dispersion is typical of companies where a large proportion of terminal value depends on technologies and markets that have not yet reached full commercialization. SpaceX is increasingly a portfolio of interconnected businesses One useful way to analyze SpaceX is to separate it into four components. The first is the launch business — technologically the most mature and supported by an operational advantage that competitors cannot easily replicate. The second is Starlink, a globally scalable telecommunications infrastructure platform. The third is Starship, which is both a product in its own right and potentially a tool for reducing the cost base of SpaceX’s other businesses. The fourth is AI, encompassing Cursor, computing infrastructure and potentially orbital compute. The most interesting part of the bull case lies in the interaction between these businesses. If Starship reduces the cost of deploying infrastructure, Starlink provides global connectivity, and Cursor supplies customers and distribution for AI, the individual assets could ultimately be worth more together than separately. In that scenario, SpaceX would not simply be a conglomerate of unrelated technologies, but a vertically integrated infrastructure platform. That is also why $600 should not be interpreted as a straightforward price target derived from today’s fundamentals. It represents a scenario in which several highly ambitious projects succeed commercially at roughly the same time. Starship needs to radically reduce launch costs, Starlink needs to move beyond conventional internet connectivity, Cursor needs to sustain exceptional growth, and AI operations need to reach sufficient scale to justify tens or potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in additional value. For shareholders, the most important signals will therefore not be Wall Street price-target increases themselves. More important will be evidence confirming or challenging the assumptions behind them: Starship’s development pace, Starlink economics, Cursor’s growth and margins, and the amount of capital required to build out SpaceX’s AI infrastructure. SpaceX is ultimately an unusual case in which the market is pricing both existing competitive advantages and substantial long-term optionality. The more of that optionality turns into revenue and cash flow, the easier higher valuations become to justify fundamentally. But if the company’s most ambitious projects face delays or weaker economics than expected, the same mechanism works in reverse, because future businesses account for a large part of the gap between conservative valuations and the $600 bull case. SpaceX chart (H1 interval) Source: xStation5 SpaceX – fundamentals reflect the scale of investment ahead of monetization SpaceX remains in a phase of exceptionally intensive expansion, meaning its current fundamentals say more about the scale of investment than about its ultimate earnings potential. Revenue has grown at an approximately 15.4% CAGR over the past eight quarters, but an EBIT margin of -41.4% and ROE of -41.1% show that growth is still coming at the expense of near-term profitability. The balance sheet is particularly important: current liabilities stand at around $24.4 billion, while net debt is approximately $6.6 billion, highlighting the capital-intensive nature of the company’s current development phase. At the same time, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.7x does not yet point to extreme financial leverage, although persistent operating losses make the company’s ability to fund future investments an important variable. The key fundamental test will therefore be whether SpaceX can translate the growing scale of Starlink, launch services and its newer ventures into sustained margin expansion and stronger cash flows. The current financial profile also helps explain the enormous dispersion in analyst valuations: the market is not valuing SpaceX primarily on today’s earnings, but on how much of today’s investment spending can eventually produce scalable, high-margin revenue. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

August 12, 2026

Why is the Japanese Yen stuck near 159.25 after the first joint US-Japan intervention since 2011?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to navigate complex market dynamics, consolidating near the 159.25 level against the US Dollar (USD) following a sharp upward push. While technical momentum keeps short-term upside risks alive for the currency pair, the fundamental backdrop has been reshaped by rare, coordinated foreign exchange intervention between Japanese authorities and the United States. As valuation gaps narrow from extreme lows, market participants are weighing technical range boundaries against the structural impact of joint official action. USD/JPY daily chart Institutional Analysis: UOB vs. DBS Group Research To compare how leading institutions view the outlook for the Yen, we highlight the core takeaways from UOB and DBS Group Research: Near-Term Technical Picture: UOB expects USD/JPY to consolidate in an intraday range of 158.95 to 159.60, with deeply overbought conditions limiting immediate upside beyond 159.60. Multi-Week Trading Band: UOB maintains an upside-tilted bias over a 1–3 week horizon within a broader 157.00 to 160.20 range, noting that medium-term strength remains intact as long as spot holds above its 21-day EMA. Official Sector Action: DBS Group Research highlights the significance of Japan's second FX market intervention of the year, emphasizing that rare joint participation by the US adds massive credibility and reduces volatility risks in the US Treasury market. Regional Currency Impact: DBS Group Research notes that limiting JPY weakness helps alleviate unwanted selling pressure on other undervalued Asian currencies, specifically the South Korean Won (KRW) and Chinese Renminbi (RMB). Technical overbought conditions anchor USD/JPY in elevated range According to Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann at UOB, Monday’s sharp USD rally has transitioned into a quiet consolidation phase near 159.25. While short-term technical indicators reflect strong underlying momentum, deeply overbought conditions make a decisive breakout above major resistance unlikely in the immediate term. Over a wider multi-week period, the pair is expected to remain contained within higher boundaries, anchored by key moving average support. "While the bias for USD is tilted to the upside, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 157.00/160.20." Coordinated US-Japan intervention narrows Yen undervaluation and stabilizes regional FX Taking a broader policy perspective, Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research stresses that the Yen's historical undervaluation has begun to narrow following joint FX intervention by US and Japanese authorities. The involvement of the US Treasury — a rare occurrence last witnessed 15 years ago in 2011 — greatly enhances the credibility of official actions while mitigating the need for massive unilateral Treasury sales by Japan. Furthermore, by stemming excessive Yen weakness, policymakers are effectively insulating broader Asian FX markets from spillover depreciation. "Co-ordinated FX intervention between the US and Japan is rare, with the last joint intervention occurring 15 years ago to weaken an excessively over-valued JPY in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake... Indeed, both the KRW and RMB are quite undervalued according to our DEER model, and so interventions to limit JPY weakness also help alleviate unwanted selling pressure on regional currencies." Banks expect elevated range-trading backed by strong intervention credibility Based on the assessments from both institutions, the banks project an environment where USD/JPY remains technically supported at high levels but subject to firm official capping. UOB anticipates that short-term price action will remain bound between 157.00 and 160.20, with overbought momentum limiting aggressive gains past 159.60. Concurrently, DBS Group Research maintains that the unprecedented backdrop of joint US-Japan intervention provides a credible structural floor for the Yen, helping to stabilize both the domestic currency and broader regional Asian FX over the coming weeks.

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention doubts as flows favor US Dollar – BNY

BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that institutional investors bought Dollar and sold Japanese Yen after the June BoJ hike, and again following late-July joint intervention to weaken USD/JPY. Despite official action, real money treated the move as a USD/JPY buying opportunity. Chong questions the durability of FX interventions as USD/JPY trades lower with long-end JGB yields elevated. Investors fade joint FX intervention "On June 17, despite a widely anticipated BoJ rate hike, institutional investors poured into USD and sold JPY due to the hawkish interpretation of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting at the helm of the FOMC." "Fast forward to the end of July, when joint intervention between the U.S. and Japan was aimed at weakening the USD/JPY cross." "Despite the move, real money bought USD and sold yen, perhaps indicating the perception of a USD/JPY buying opportunity." "With the yen having weakened since July 31, and observing the behavior of institutional investors, that begs the question of whether these interventions have any durable efficacy."

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Steel Rebounds from 1-Year Low

Steel rebar futures in China rose above CNY 3,000 per tonne, rebounding from the one-year low of CNY 2,085 on August 3rd, tracking support for other ferrous metals amid a momentary dip in iron ore supply to Chinese furnaces. More workers joined BHP's Port Hedland strike in iron ore operations. The suspension in operations on the world's largest iron ore export hub added to threats on Sino-Australian trade amid rifts with China's state-backed commodity buying authority. Still, sluggish demand maintained steel prices down year-to-date. The latest data extended the trend China's property crisis, indicating that demand for rebar will remain week for major sector. The official construction PMI fell to a record low of 47 in July, and construction starts sank by 23.4% in June annually. Export options for mills were also limited due to protectionist policies by foreign governments against ample Chines capacity. Steel and iron product exports from China fell 4.4% in volume in the year to July.

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Euro: Soft US CPI could support gains against US Dollar – ING

Chris Turner at ING notes EUR/USD remains lacklustre despite better Eurozone data and upside surprises, as high European natural gas prices and Gulf tensions weigh on the Euro. He argues that a soft US CPI print could allow EUR/USD to challenge last week’s 1.1580 high, though further gains may be limited by upcoming data and the Jackson Hole symposium before the Fed’s mid-September decision. Energy costs cap Euro upside "EUR/USD continues to trade in a lacklustre fashion. Better hard activity data and eurozone economic numbers generally surprising on the upside have failed to provide the euro with much of a lift. That may be owed to unresolved tension in the Gulf, which is keeping European natural gas prices above €60/MWh." "In terms of geopolitics, there is very little clarity here, although the latest reports suggest Pakistan and Oman are managing to bring the US and Iran a little closer together." "If the US CPI number does indeed come in on the soft side, EUR/USD should be able to challenge last week's high at 1.1580. That is about the extent of a move priced into one-day straddle options." "Much more of a move may be too much to ask in quiet summer markets, given we will also see another round of CPI and jobs data – plus the Jackson Hole Fed symposium – before the Fed decides on policy mid-September."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Looks to extend recovery against US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that the Canadian Dollar has recovered to its strongest level in two months, with USD/CAD mean‑reverting to 1.3933 from 1.4248. The pair now trades close to fair value on 2‑year spread models, and a test of 1.3900 would mark a 50% retracement of the May–June rally, helped by stronger WTI and reduced speculative shorts. Fair value nears as rally retraces "In Canada, building permits will play second fiddle to US CPI as the loonie recovers to the strongest level in two months." "USD/CAD has mean reverted to 1.3933 from 1.4248 in late June and trades close to fair value based on 2y bond spreads (Rsq 0.8)." "A test of 1.3900 would mark a 50% retracement of the May-June rally." "The loonie has been supported by the rebound in WTI above $82/b, the elimination of speculative short positions and the dovish repricing of the Fed post NFP." "Long CAD/short JPY (+0.63%) is the best carry performer in G10 so far in August."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

US Dollar: CPI-driven range signals carry focus – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that the US Dollar (USD) stayed mixed as markets waited for the key United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with Middle East tensions and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric offsetting each other. They expect CPI to be pivotal for September FOMC pricing, while a rangebound Dollar and supportive risk backdrop continue to favour carry trades in the near term. CPI to steer FOMC expectations "Markets stayed sidelined ahead of US CPI, with mixed USD performance reflecting conflicting Middle East headlines and hawkish Fed rhetoric. Today’s inflation print is likely to be pivotal for September FOMC pricing, while a rangebound USD continues to favour carry trades." "US data offered a more constructive signal. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in July from 97.4 in June, beating consensus expectations of 97.5 and reaching its highest level since August 2025. Much of the improvement was driven by a sharp rebound in hiring intentions, contrasting with last week’s softer payrolls report." "We expect the CPI release to be a key catalyst for market pricing ahead of the September FOMC meeting, which is currently viewed as a near-even split between a rate hike and a hold. A July core CPI reading of 0.3% MoM or higher, above the 0.2% consensus forecast, would likely strengthen expectations of a September hike." "In the meantime, a range-bound USD and a generally supportive risk environment should continue to underpin carry trades, despite persistent volatility in oil markets and ongoing FX intervention risks surrounding the JPY."

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Wheat Jumps as Black Sea Supply Risks Mount

Wheat prices surged more than 3% to above $6.50 per bushel on Wednesday, moving closer to the two-year high of $7.08 reached on July 22, as concerns over Black Sea supply disruptions intensified. Prices jumped after reports that major Ukrainian drone attacks had halted operations at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia’s leading Black Sea wheat export port. The attacks have raised fresh concerns over shipments during the peak export season for both Russia and Ukraine, with the two countries increasingly targeting each other’s vessels and logistics infrastructure. Russia’s wheat exports are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly a decade in August, while consultancy IKAR has cut its 2026/27 export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes. Ukraine has also lowered its grain export outlook by up to 12%. However, weak international demand, lower Russian prices and alternative export routes could limit the impact on global supplies.

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Oil: Hormuz risk supports prices – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao note that Brent and WTI firmed as markets reassessed prospects for a Hormuz deal, with the previous close at USD88.91 for Brent and USD83.20 for WTI. Iran insists the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until its conditions are met, while elevated geopolitical risks could keep energy markets tight and renew upward pressure on US inflation. Oil buoyed by Hormuz uncertainty "The conflicting signals suggest negotiations are progressing, but a deal capable of restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not yet appear imminent." "Geopolitical risks remain elevated elsewhere in the region. A US Navy helicopter fired on a cargo vessel that attempted to breach the US blockade of Iranian ports, while separate incidents involving commercial vessels were reported in the Gulf of Oman and off Yemen's Red Sea coast. European diesel prices also surged amid disruptions to refining capacity elsewhere, reinforcing concerns over already-tight energy markets." "Lower energy prices in July should help ease headline inflation, although the subsequent rebound in oil prices means energy could again place upward pressure on inflation in the coming months." "Brent oil prices rose as Iran reiterated that the Strait would remain closed until its conditions are met, despite Pakistan suggesting that Washington and Tehran were “close to some sort of arrangement”. The USD was little changed."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

British Pound: Budget uncertainty leaves Sterling vulnerable against Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley outlines a cautious stance on UK fiscal prospects and their impact on EUR/GBP. The Burnham government’s planned flexibility in fiscal rules and higher infrastructure spending could mean more gilt supply and tax speculation. Foley sees ongoing market nervousness into autumn and prefers buying EUR/GBP on dips toward 0.85, with resistance near 0.8578. Euro cross supported by UK fiscal uncertainty "Uncertainty about the budget could keep the UK market nervous into the autumn and we would look to buy EUR/GBP on dips back to 0.85, with the 50 day sma currently providing resistance around the 0.8578 area." "The market may be more forgiving if the government is borrowing to invest, but extra gilt supply will still have to be absorbed, and infrastructure projects are likely to take years before they raise capacity." "Either way, Burnham’s plans to ease the cost of living for the electorate still must be paid for." "Speculation as to which taxes may go higher is already emerging and so too has speculation that this could have a contractionary impact on growth." "This implies changing definitions of public debt to allow for more spending on infrastructure."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Indian Rupee: CPI and RBI repo rate risk skew higher – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan notes India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to edge up to 4.4% year-on-year from 4.3%. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation is largely under control, supporting expectations for rates to stay on hold near term. Wan still anticipates policy rates to rise, shifting its projected 50bps hikes to start from the December 2026 meeting. Inflation outlook and policy timing "In Asia, we will have India’s CPI inflation, which is expected to inch higher towards 4.4%yoy from 4.3% yoy previously." "RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said at an event yesterday that inflation is “more or less under check”, and reinforcing expectations from the last policy meeting that interest rates will stay on hold for now." "We continue to see policy rates heading higher in India, but we have pushed out the timing of our 50bps rate hikes to start from the December 2026 meeting instead." "Nonetheless, with domestic growth in India remaining quite robust, credit growth accelerating, the lagged impact from earlier oil price increases, fiscal policy supportive with a likely wider fiscal deficit, coupled with possible interaction with adverse weather events, we think the bias of risks tilt towards the RBI repo rate moving higher from here."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Brazilian Real: Politics weighs but carry supports – ING

ING’s Chris Turner reports the Brazilian Real (BRL) underperformed in an otherwise supportive carry environment after a bank downgraded Brazilian equities and a new poll showed President Lula widening his lead ahead of October elections. He sees this as the first real political hit to BRL but expects high implied yields and Brazil’s net energy exporter status to keep demand, with USD/BRL unlikely to break 5.22 on local news alone. Election risks versus strong carry "In an otherwise supportive market for FX carry trades, the Brazilian real was a notable under-performer yesterday. Driving that was both a sell-side bank downgrading Brazilian equities to neutral from overweight, and a new poll result ahead of Brazilian presidential elections in early October." "This seems the first day that politics has really started to hit the real this year. We would not chase the real lower, however. 13.4% implied yields through the one-month non-deliverable forwards and Brazil's position as a net energy exporter should keep the currency reasonably in demand." "Positioning is probably quite crowded long the real now, but we suspect it would require a broadly stronger dollar, rather than local news, to send USD/BRL through 5.22."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Mexican Peso: Bullish trend resumes against US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that USD/MXN failed to clear its 200‑day moving average, keeping downside momentum intact. The pair is attempting to break the lower end of a multi‑month range, with resistance at 17.17 and projected downside objectives at 16.65 and 16.50/16.25. Carry demand and low volatility continue to support the Mexican Peso in broader EM space. Range floor under pressure again "USD/MXN struggled to overcome the 200-DMA in recent rebound attempt, indicating that downward momentum remains prevalent." "The pair is attempting to break the lower limit of its multi-month range, highlighting that the downtrend may be resuming." "The high achieved earlier this week at 17.17 is first resistance. An inability to overcome this may lead to an extension of the decline." "The next objectives could be located at projections of 16.65 and 16.50/16.25."

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Banks

August 12, 2026

Japanese Yen: Remains vulnerable against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe USD/JPY consolidating near 159.25 after Monday’s sharp rise, with intraday trade expected between 158.95 and 159.60. While momentum is strong, deeply overbought conditions limit upside beyond 159.60. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the bias remains tilted to the upside within a broader 157.00–160.20 range, with medium-term gains contingent on holding above the 21‑day EMA. Dollar-Yen holds in elevated range "24-HOUR VIEW: Following the sharp rise in USD on Monday, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Strong momentum suggests USD could continue to rise, but given the deeply overbought conditions, any advance is likely to stay within a 158.60/159.60 range. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 159.60.” We did not expect USD to trade in a quiet manner between 158.92 and 159.38. The price action provides no fresh clues. Today, USD could trade between 158.95 and 159.60." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (11 Aug, spot at 159.20) remains valid. As highlighted, “while the bias for USD is tilted to the upside, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 157.00/160.20.”"

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Palladium Holds Near 2-Month High

Palladium futures climbed toward $1,370 per ounce, remaining near more than two-month highs as reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and broader strength across precious metals supported demand. Markets price in about a 50% chance of a September Fed hike, down from 60% before last week’s weaker-than-expected US jobs report, with lower rates generally supporting non-yielding precious metals. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions supported precious metals, as attacks on shipping by the US and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis and uncertainty over the Iran conflict kept safe-haven demand elevated. On the supply front, concerns over disruptions in South Africa and uncertainty over Russian exports continue to support prices, with extended maintenance at South African processing facilities reducing refined PGM output amid tight inventories. Over the past month, palladium has risen 9.58% and is up 21.67% year-on-year.

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Markets

August 12, 2026

XAU has seen the fastest gains since the start of the year

Gold is once again attracting investors’ attention, reaching its highest levels in 10 weeks ahead of today’s key US inflation figures. The price of gold rose by nearly 1% today to $4,407 per ounce. As the daily chart shows, the price is currently around 4,407.00, having successfully broken above the downtrend line and the moving averages. The metal has climbed to its highest level since 5 June, although it had previously encountered technical resistance at the 100-day and 200-day moving averages around USD 4,387. From a technical indicators perspective, the RSI stands at 67.6, indicating that it is approaching its highest levels since the start of the year, whilst the recent technical breakout has created a positive feedback loop driving further gains and initiating a confirmed uptrend. The main driver behind this impressive rally is a marked decline in market expectations of further interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve. Following recent labour market data that was weaker than expected, the probability of a rate rise in September has fallen to 50 per cent from the previous 60 per cent. This represents a favourable macroeconomic environment, as lower interest rates traditionally support gold prices, given that gold is inversely correlated with the US dollar. Investors’ attention is now focused entirely on the US CPI figures due at 14:30, which could ultimately reshape the outlook for the Fed’s monetary policy and thus determine future gold prices.

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Forex Trading

August 12, 2026

Chart of the Day: EURUSD Awaits US CPI. Inflation Could Determine the Fed’s Next Move

Wednesday’s EURUSD session is primarily focused on anticipation of the day’s most important release: US CPI inflation data. Today’s reading could play a major role in determining how the market prices the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. In recent days, expectations for further rate hikes in the US have clearly weakened. The main reason has been weaker labor market data. Both the ADP report, which showed just 44,000 new private-sector jobs, and the subsequent NFP report came in weak. In July, nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, while the market had expected an increase of around 80,000. Previous months’ data were also revised sharply lower. As a result, the market has become increasingly skeptical about further Fed rate hikes. Today’s inflation data could either reinforce that view or challenge it once again. If CPI comes in below expectations, there will be even fewer arguments for further monetary tightening. If, on the other hand, inflation surprises to the upside again, the market could quickly return to pricing higher US interest rates. On the other side is the European Central Bank. The ECB has already raised interest rates this year, and the market is pricing in another move in September. Expectations for a September rate hike are currently very high. In addition, today’s German data confirmed that inflation remains elevated. CPI rose by 0.8% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year in July. HICP increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. This puts EURUSD in a particularly interesting position. On the dollar side, we have an increasingly weak labor market and declining expectations for Fed rate hikes. On the euro side, inflation is still providing the ECB with arguments for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy. Source: xStation5 Factors Currently Shaping EURUSD Today’s CPI report is undoubtedly the most important event for EURUSD. The market expects inflation to have risen by 3.4% year-on-year in July, compared with 3.5% in June. Core inflation is expected to increase by 2.5% year-on-year. However, the actual reading will only be the first piece of the puzzle. Much more important will be the market’s reaction to the data and how expectations for future Fed policy change. If inflation comes in below expectations, the market may further reduce the probability of another rate hike. In such a scenario, US Treasury yields could fall and the dollar could come under pressure. This would be a positive signal for EURUSD. Conversely, higher-than-expected inflation could reverse part of this move. Following very weak labor market data, the market now needs another argument to return to pricing in rate hikes. A strong CPI reading could provide exactly that. It is also important to remember that inflation remains above the Fed’s target. Therefore, even a weaker reading does not automatically mean that the central bank will have to start cutting rates quickly. For the market, the more important question right now is whether the argument for further rate hikes disappears. Weak Labor Market Has Changed Expectations for the Fed Until recently, the prospect of further rate hikes in the US was much more realistic. The situation changed following a series of weaker labor market reports. The July ADP report showed private-sector employment growth of just 44,000 jobs. A few days later, the NFP report delivered an even bigger disappointment. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with expectations for an increase of 80,000. Previous data were also revised sharply lower. The labor market is now one of the main arguments against further Fed rate hikes. If the economy is clearly losing momentum in terms of employment, the central bank has fewer reasons to raise the cost of borrowing even further. Today’s CPI could therefore be the missing piece of the puzzle. Weaker inflation combined with a weak labor market would send the Fed a very clear signal that further rate hikes are not necessary. The ECB Has a Completely Different Problem The situation on the euro side currently looks different. The European Central Bank has already started a rate-hiking cycle this year, and the market expects another move in September. Importantly, expectations for the September decision are very high. This means the market is already largely pricing in another ECB move, making what the central bank does afterward even more important for the euro. If inflation remains elevated, the ECB may have arguments for maintaining a more restrictive stance. Today’s German data fit well into this picture. CPI and HICP inflation stood at 2.8% year-on-year in July, while monthly price growth also remained high. This does not, of course, mean that German inflation alone will determine ECB decisions. It is nevertheless an important part of the inflation picture across the euro area. The Difference in Fed and ECB Expectations Is Starting to Favor the Euro This is currently the most interesting aspect for EURUSD. Until recently, the main problem for the euro was the Fed’s advantage resulting from high interest rates and expectations of further tightening in the US. Now, the situation is beginning to change. The market has reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, while at the same time maintaining a high probability of another ECB rate hike in September. If today’s US CPI is weak, the divergence in expectations for the two central banks’ policies could shift even further in favor of the euro. That would provide another argument for EURUSD to move higher. If, however, US inflation comes in above expectations, the dollar could quickly regain some of its advantage. In that case, the market would once again question whether the Fed has actually reached the end of its rate-hiking cycle. Key Takeaways Today’s US CPI report is the most important event for EURUSD and could have a significant impact on expectations for the Fed’s next meeting. Weak labor market data, including a very weak NFP report and a weak ADP reading, have clearly reduced expectations for further US rate hikes. A lower-than-expected CPI reading could further confirm that the Fed will have little reason to raise rates again this year. The ECB is currently in a different position. The central bank has already raised rates this year, and the market is pricing in another rate hike in September with a very high probability. Today’s German data showed inflation at 2.8% year-on-year for both CPI and HICP, providing little evidence that the ECB should quickly move away from a restrictive monetary policy. For EURUSD, the key question now is whether US CPI confirms the weaker picture of the US economy. If it does, the divergence in monetary-policy expectations could increasingly shift in favor of the euro.

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Markets

August 12, 2026

US Inflation Rate Expected to Slow for 2nd Month

The annual inflation rate in the US is expected to slow for a second consecutive month to 3.4% in July 2026, from 3.5% in June, easing further from the 2023 high of 4.2% reached in May. On a monthly basis, the CPI is forecast to rise 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.4% decline in June, which marked the first monthly drop since May 2020. Gasoline prices are expected to have fallen nearly 3%, while airfares and jet fuel prices are also likely to have declined. New and used car prices, meanwhile, could see a slight uptick. Core consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2%, following a flat reading in June, while the annual core inflation rate is seen easing to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month. That would mark the smallest annual increase since February. Overall, the CPI report is likely to point to a further cooling in energy-related price pressures that intensified in the months immediately following the start of the US war with Iran.

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Energies

August 12, 2026

Brent Extends Gains on Hormuz Uncertainty

Brent crude strengthened above $89 per barrel on Wednesday, advancing for a sixth straight session as investors weighed conflicting signals surrounding a potential agreement between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump said the US had “total control over the Strait of Hormuz” as negotiations over the key waterway remain deadlocked. The increasingly confrontational rhetoric raised further doubts about the prospects of an immediate agreement to reopen the critical shipping route. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s defense minister said Washington and Tehran are “close to some sort of arrangement” regarding the Strait of Hormuz, while reports indicated that talks between Iran and Oman have reached an advanced stage. Elsewhere, industry data showed US crude inventories increased by 9.1 million barrels last week, marking their biggest weekly rise since February.

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Markets

August 12, 2026

FTSE Trades at Weekly Lows While The DAX Advances

FTSE 100 Trades at Over 1-Week Low The FTSE 100 traded within a narrow range of less than 0.5% in either direction for a 10th consecutive session, slipping to a more than one-week low as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over a potential Middle East peace deal. The US and Iran appeared to harden their positions in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, despite Pakistan’s defense minister saying the two sides were “close to some sort of arrangement.” Meanwhile, markets looked ahead to key US inflation data, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Oil majors Shell and BP fell 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, while AstraZeneca, GSK and Unilever also declined. Burberry, Tesco and JD Sports dropped around 1.7% to 2%. On the upside, aerospace and defense companies BAE Systems and Babcock gained around 1.5% each, supported by continued strength in the sector. DAX Advances to Fresh Highs The DAX 40 edged up to around 26,430 on Wednesday, marking a fresh high and extending its winning run to five sessions. Traders monitored more corporate earnings and eyed geopolitical developments ahead of the release of a key US inflation report. Gains were largely driven by technology and industrial stocks, outweighing losses in consumer cyclicals, telecommunications companies, and automakers. Siemens Energy and Rheinmetall performed strongly, rising 3.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Chipmaker Infineon Technologies and AI-related Hochtief followed, up around 1.6% each. TKMS jumped over 11%, as investors welcomed the naval shipbuilder’s upgraded revenue forecast in the current fiscal year. On the downside, TUI dropped nearly 2% after Europe's largest travel company missed Q3 operating profit expectations. Brenntag fell 1.6% despite reporting solid second-quarter performance, driven by higher chemical prices, and raised its full-year e

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Markets

August 12, 2026

US Inflation Key for Markets — Today’s Most Important Data Release of the Week

Wednesday’s trading session in financial markets will be dominated by key consumer inflation (CPI) releases. The main focus for global investors will be this afternoon’s US CPI reading for July. The data will have a direct impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path at upcoming meetings. Earlier in the day, markets will assess Germany’s final inflation figures, which will provide a clearer picture of price pressures in the eurozone’s largest economy. Given today’s data releases, elevated volatility is expected across FX markets, equity indices, and government bond yields. Macroeconomic Calendar 08:00 Germany – Final CPI inflation (YoY) for July: 2.8%. Consensus: 2.8%. Previous: 2.3%. 08:00 Germany – Final HICP inflation (YoY) for July: 2.8%. Consensus: 2.8%. Previous: 2.4%. 08:00 Germany – Final CPI inflation (MoM) for July: 0.8%. Consensus: 0.8%. Previous: -0.3%. 08:00 Romania – CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 7.9%. Previous: 10.4%. 09:00 Poland – BIEC Future Inflation Indicator for August. Consensus: N/A. Previous: 88.7. 10:00 Italy – Final CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 2.8%. Previous: 3.0%. 13:00 US – Weekly Mortgage Applications. Consensus: N/A. Previous: -2.9%. 14:30 US – CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 3.4%. Previous: 3.5%. 14:30 US – Core CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 2.5%. Previous: 2.6%. 14:30 US – CPI inflation (MoM) for July. Consensus: 0.1%. Previous: -0.4%. 14:30 US – Core CPI inflation (MoM) for July. Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 0.0%. 14:30 Canada – Building Permits (MoM) for June. Consensus: -1.0%. Previous: -1.7%. 16:30 US – Weekly DOE crude oil inventories. Consensus: -0.5 million barrels. Previous: +2.48 million barrels. 16:30 US – Weekly DOE gasoline inventories. Consensus: -1.6 million barrels. Previous: -1.64 million barrels. 20:00 US – Federal Budget Balance for July. Consensus: -USD 295 billion. Previous: -USD 120.3 billion. 3 Markets to Watch EUR/USD – The US CPI release at 14:30 will be the main volatility catalyst for the currency pair. A lower-than-expected reading could weaken the US dollar and support a move toward resistance levels, while higher inflation would likely strengthen the greenback. S&P 500 (US500) – Any surprises in the US inflation data will affect expectations for the Fed’s interest-rate path, with a direct impact on investors’ risk appetite and equity valuations. Crude Oil (WTI / Brent) – The DOE fuel inventory report at 16:30 will provide an update on US demand during the peak driving season. With crude inventories expected to decline by 0.5 million barrels, the data could provide a catalyst for further moves in oil prices.

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Markets

August 12, 2026

XAG/USD rises to near $65.40 with US inflation in focus

Silver price rises to near $65.40 ahead of the US CPI data for July. The US headline and core CPI are expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 3.4% and 2.5% YoY, respectively. Oil prices continue to surge due to a sharp slowdown in traffic through the Hormuz. Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.1% higher at around $65.40 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal reflects strength ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. According to estimates, the US headline CPI grew at an annual pace of 3.4%, slower than 3.5% in June. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is also seen lower at 2.5% Year-on-Year (YoY) from the previous reading of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, the headline and core inflation grew by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In the latest monetary policy announcement, Chairman Kevin Warsh warned of upside inflation risks, adding that the board is committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target. Meanwhile, surging oil prices due to restricted global energy supply on the back of Middle East conflicts will likely limit the Silver price’s upside. According to data from Kpler, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, was recorded at just six vessels on August 10, down from a recent 10-day average of about 11. This remains a massive decline from pre-war levels of 130 to 140 ships daily, Reuters reports. On Tuesday, the CME Group said that it will allow round-the-clock trading in its 100-ounce silver futures contract from September after seeing a strong response for the 1-ounce Gold futures contract, which began on July 24, Reuters reports. Silver Technical Analysis In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $65.53, extending its advance above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61.28 and reinforcing a bullish near-term bias. Price action has steadily pushed away from the prior consolidation zone, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.21 stays in positive territory but short of overbought, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive without being overstretched. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $61.28, which underpins the broader rebound and would be the first line of defense on any pullback. Looking up, the white metal would attempt to extend the advance towards the June 17 high at $71.56 if it manages to break above the August 10 high at $66.59.

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Energies

August 12, 2026

WTI Price – Bulls retain control near 38.2% Fibo.; move beyond $83.00 awaited

WTI trades with a positive bias for the third straight day, close to a nearly two-week high. The US-Iran standoff fuels supply concerns and lends some support to the black liquid. The bullish technical setup supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts buyers for the third straight day and trades just below the $83.00 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday, close to a nearly two-week high set the previous day. An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the US meets Tehran's demands. Moreover, fresh strikes by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea fuel concerns over supply disruptions in West Asia. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the commodity and underpins the case for a further near-term appreciating move. From a technical perspective, WTI holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide and maintains a near-term bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.63 remains in positive territory without yet reaching overbought, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows the line in positive territory, reinforcing that momentum remains constructive. Hence, a subsequent move up towards the next relevant hurdle, defined by the 50% retracement at $82.93, looks like a distinct possibility. This is followed by the 61.8% level at $85.13, with further barriers at the 78.6% retracement at $88.27 and the prior cycle high at $92.26. On the downside, a first layer of support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $80.73, ahead of the 23.6% level at $78.00, while the $73.60 swing low acts as a more distant structural floor if a deeper corrective pullback unfolds. WTI 4-hour chart

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Politics in Brazil more important than high rates. Why is the BRL weakening and what does it mean for commodities?

Anatomy of the BRL weakness: Politics eats into carry trade Although the Brazilian real offers an exceptionally attractive real interest rate reaching almost 10% (the Selic rate is 14% with inflation at 4.44%), the currency is under strong selling pressure, despite the generally positive sentiment for Latin American currencies. The main trigger is the growing political risk ahead of the October elections. Polls show a lead for Lula da Silva over Flávio Bolsonaro (47–48% to 39–44%), which is raising investors' concerns about the country's fiscal stability, despite the assurances of Lula's campaign about keeping finances in check. As a result, the market risk premium is rising rapidly, neutralizing the advantages of high interest rates in carry trades. Real is losing value despite the positive sentiment for Latin American currencies. The USDMXN is clearly losing, remaining at its lowest levels since 2024. Source: xStation5 The Central Bank (BCB) Dilemma The Central Bank of Brazil recently lowered the Selic rate by 25 bps to 14% (the fourth cut in a row). Brazil's interest rate picture. Despite winning the fight against inflation, interest rates remain extremely high. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Although rate cuts theoretically weaken a currency, in this case, the conclusions from the minutes of the monetary policy committee (Copom) meeting are key: Restrictiveness for longer: The Bank explicitly emphasizes that policy must remain strongly hawkish, as long-term inflation expectations for 2028 (3.8%) are still above the 3.0% target. Demand and fiscal pressure: Economic stimulus and social programs introduced by the Lula government are boosting domestic demand, making it difficult to control inflation. Higher inflation: The July CPI reading of 4.44% turned out to be higher than forecasts and is positioned dangerously close to the upper limit of the target (1.5%–4.5%). It is worth noting that the BCB has won the fight against inflation, although inflation itself is above the midpoint of the target range. The real interest rate remains extremely high. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Capital flight from the stock market (Ibovespa) Political uncertainty is directly hitting the Brazilian stock market: The Ibovespa index is falling for the sixth consecutive session. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has shrunk from over 10x at the beginning of the year to 8.2x. Stock market earnings yield is 243 basis points lower than the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which makes foreign capital choose safer debt or withdraw from Brazil entirely. Impact on the agricultural commodities market (coffee, sugar, soybeans) Brazil is the world's largest exporter of coffee and sugar and a key supplier of soybeans. The weakening of the real translates directly into these markets: Higher export profitability: A weaker BRL means that goods priced in US dollars (USD) generate higher revenue in local currency for Brazilian farmers and trading corporations. Supply pressure and hedging: Currency weakening motivates local producers to sell stocks more intensively and hedge future harvests on the New York and Chicago exchanges. Global price decline: The increase in supply from Brazil historically generates downward pressure on the prices of futures contracts for coffee (Arabica), sugar, and soybeans. Even very high interest rates will not protect the real from volatility as long as uncertainty around the election outcome and Brazil's future fiscal path dominates. The real is weakening today against the dollar, even though sentiment regarding LATAM currencies remains positive. Technically, the key resistance for USD/BRL will be the 5.20 level, where we can also draw the 23.6 Fibo level of the last major downward wave. Potentially, USD/BRL is currently testing the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders (iH&S) pattern. If this line, along with the aforementioned retracement, is broken, the scope of the pattern points even to the area around 5.55, where the 50.0 retracement and local highs from December 2025 are located.

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Metals

August 12, 2026

Asian Stocks Mostly Rise

Asian equity markets mostly advanced on Wednesday, led by a more than 4% surge in South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics rallied following reports that Singaporean state-owned investment firm Temasek Holdings plans to acquire stakes in the two companies. Sentiment was further supported by upbeat outlooks from CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer, as both companies continue to benefit from the ongoing artificial intelligence spending boom. Technology-heavy benchmarks in Japan and China also climbed, while shares in Australia and Hong Kong lagged. On the geopolitical front, investors assessed the prospects of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Pakistan’s defense minister said Washington and Tehran are “close to some sort of arrangement.”

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Energies

August 12, 2026

European Gas Holds Losses as Traders Assess Hormuz Developments

European natural gas prices hovered around €60 per MWh on Wednesday after falling in the previous session, as traders assessed diplomatic aimed at reaching a Middle East deal that could pave the way for the resumption of LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s defense minister said the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” over the waterway, while negotiations between Tehran and Oman were also reportedly making significant progress. However, uncertainty over a swift reopening of the strait persists, with both sides taking firmer positions. The ongoing disruption to shipping has severely constrained LNG shipments, leaving shipments from major exporter Qatar significantly delayed. Analysts expect European gas prices to maintain a firm floor until storage levels show clearer signs of building before the heating season begins. Hot weather across Europe is also boosting electricity demand for cooling, adding further pressure to the market.

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Energies

August 12, 2026

Gasoline Rises to 2-Week High

US gasoline futures rose to around $3.16 per gallon on Wednesday, a two-week high, tracking gains in crude prices as markets assessed the viability of efforts toward a potential deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s defense minister said the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement” over the waterway, while Iran-Oman talks have reached an advanced stage, according to a Qatari official cited by Al Jazeera. Meanwhile, API data showed gasoline stocks fell by 1.531 million barrels in the week ending August 7, following a 156,000-barrel increase the prior week. Elsewhere, escalating Russia-Ukraine attacks raised concerns over further energy disruptions after Ukraine launched a long-range drone strike on a major Russian refinery. Russia’s overseas crude shipments fell to their lowest since May, while Moscow extended its ban on gasoline and diesel exports through January 2027. At the pump, the EIA raised its retail gasoline price forecast for this year and 2027.

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Energies

August 12, 2026

Heating Oil Approaches 4-Month High

US heating oil futures advanced toward $4.30 per gallon on Wednesday, approaching a four-month high amid mounting concerns over tight distillate supplies. Yemen’s Houthis recently attacked Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, which has been shut since July 27 following an earlier strike by the group. Plans to restart the facility have since been postponed from August 15 to August 30. Russia’s fuel export restrictions have also added to global supply concerns. This comes on top of uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, where markets are assessing the prospects for a potential US-Iran agreement on the key waterway. Pakistan’s defense minister said Washington and Tehran were “close to some sort of arrangement,” while a Qatari official cited by Al Jazeera said Iran-Oman talks had reached an advanced stage. Meanwhile, US refiners are processing crude at the highest seasonal pace since 2018, despite capacity falling by 600,000 barrels per day over the same period.

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Markets

August 12, 2026

Palm Oil Retreats on Ample Supplies, Profit-Taking

Malaysian palm oil futures eased, slipping below MYR 4,720 per tonne as profit-taking set in after a two-week high. Losses tracked declines in edible oils on the Dalian exchange and were compounded by signs of ample supply: July inventories rose 3.32% to 2.63 million tonnes, while output surged 9.41% to 1.79 million tonnes. Softer Chinese inflation data underscored weak demand in the world’s top edible oil importer, further weighing on sentiment. Still, downside was cushioned by a weaker ringgit and firmer soyoil prices on the Chicago exchange. In top buyer India, festive-season demand expectations lent support after July imports hit a ten-month peak. Export prospects brightened as cargo surveyors estimated shipments rose between 2.6% and 14.8% in the first ten days of August. Meanwhile, stronger crude oil prices added a tailwind, with Middle East supply concerns, heightened by attacks on two ships and uncertainty over a U.S.–Iran peace deal, bolstering the broader commodity complex.

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Energies

August 11, 2026

Commodity Talk – Oil, Gold, Natgas, Emiss

Oil: Crude oil, after declines at the beginning of last week, returned to strong gains in the face of huge uncertainty regarding the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran indicates that it is reaching an agreement with Oman regarding the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, but at the same time announces the maintenance of its blockade until 2029 – which is until the end of Donald Trump's presidency or the moment of the return of frozen funds, the lifting of sanctions, and the withdrawal of the American military from the Middle East. During the second session this week, crude oil rose by over 2%. Brent oil is testing the area of 90 USD per barrel, while WTI oil is exceeding the level of 84 USD. On the other hand, Pakistan informs that the United States is supposed to be conducting talks with Iran regarding an agreement, which led to the reversal of the entire daily gain in the market. On a weekly scale, oil gained as much as 12%, and compared to last week, the increase was almost 8%. Currently, the dynamics of moves have been limited. The price remains above the 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year averages, with the largest overvaluation visible relative to the 2-year average. Although the Strait of Hormuz remains officially closed, the transport of the commodity through this strait continues. Nevertheless, sources suggest a drop in volume from over 4 million bbl/d last week to approx. 3 million bbl/d currently. Before the outbreak of the conflict, approx. 20 million bbl/d was transported. Current comments should not generate further drastic increases. Freezing the conflict at the current stage could keep prices in a wide range of 70–90 USD per barrel. Only a potential US attack on Iran's energy infrastructure or an intensification of Iran's actions against targets in the region could lead to a permanent breakout above the 100 USD level. Crude oil and crack spread Volatility in the crude oil market is growing, and the crack spread remains at a high level, which highlights the tense situation in the fuel market. Currently, the challenge is not access to the oil itself, but the supply of petroleum products. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Oil benchmarks and curve spreads The nearest calendar spreads remain at limited levels and may even indicate a slight overvaluation of prices. It is worth noting, however, that the oil market remains in clear backwardation. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Technical analysis of crude oil Crude oil clearly rebounded at the beginning of this week, breaking out of a downward trend, but if the price closes with a clear candle wick, pressure will arise to return below 85 USD per barrel. In the case of a green body at the end of the session, the price may try to test the 100-period average above 92 USD per barrel. Source: xStation5 Gold: Gold tested 4400 USD per ounce for the first time since the beginning of June. Since the beginning of this month, this is an upward movement of approx. 8% The main upward motif in the gold market is the change in sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve. Along with Warsh's nondescript comment at the last Fed meeting and weaker labor market data, the probability of a hike in September falls to a level of approx. 35% Gold is breaking through the 50-period average for the first time since mid-May and is testing the 100-period average. It is worth noting that gold in the short term is weakly or sometimes even negatively correlated with inflation, due to rising expectations for interest rate hikes. In the longer term, gold is positively correlated with gold. Concerns that the Fed will again miss the inflation target due to the lack of a concrete plan are causing a stronger increase in yields at the long end of the yield curve (a significant move in 30-year yields). Medium-term yields (10-year) remain at an elevated level, which may potentially indicate a slight overvaluation of gold at this moment. On the other hand, high yields may also show concerns regarding the fiscal situation in the United States, which may also be shown by the behavior of central banks. Central banks remain active in terms of gold purchases in the market, significantly increasing purchases in the second quarter of this year. At the same time, total demand in Q2 turned out to be quite weak. We are observing clear signs of improved demand: ETF funds have resumed gold purchases, which may be related to the better condition of the US stock market (gold became an asset with higher volatility at the turn of 2025/2026). At the same time, increased buyer activity is visible in the futures market in China. Gold positioning on COMEX and in Shanghai Although we still do not observe activity from investors on COMEX, in the case of the market in Shanghai, a powerful rebound in long positions is visible, to the highest levels since January. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gold price and ETF holdings ETF funds have returned to gold purchases, and the current rebound resembles the situation in April. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gold price and physical demand The sum of investment and central bank demand from the last 4 quarters is clearly falling. Currently, the perspective for a rebound in demand for Q3 is quite high, given the sell-off by ETFs in Q2, very low demand for coins, and further strong demand from central banks. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Structure of gold demand Central banks ensured that demand in Q2 was not one of the lowest in the last dozen or so years. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Technical analysis of gold The gold price is currently testing the 100-period average. A close above this level should enable a move into the vicinity of 4500 USD and a potential negation of the last downward impulse. This would open the way to a level of at least 4800 USD by the end of the year, in the face of pressure for rate hikes from the Fed. Source: xStation5 Natgas: Natural gas prices in the US rose significantly at the turn of the first and second weeks of August, which may be related to forecasts of slightly higher temperatures in the US in the second half of August. Current gas consumption in the United States is at elevated levels, which may lead to testing the range of 2.8-3.0 USD/MMBtu At the same time, the state of inventories in the US remains very high, and the current inventory replenishment season will most likely end in the vicinity of 4000 Bcf The strong El Nino phenomenon could potentially shift the start of the heating season in the US, which may affect lower prices and declines after strong rollovers of futures contracts. The United States is currently a stabilizer in the energy market in the world, also in the form of the largest exporter of LNG gas. Further closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes the demand for American gas in the world to increase. European gas prices returned to the level of 60 EUR/MWh with the prospect of further growth. At this point, it does not seem that gas prices in Europe may be exposed to further increases due to uncertainty regarding the filling of storage facilities before November 1. The filling level currently does not exceed 60%, while the target for November 1 is 90%. At the same time, however, El Nino may cause temperatures in the northern hemisphere to be higher and reduce the pressure on energy commodity price increases. Natural gas market in the USA Gas consumption for electricity production purposes is rising to the highest level this year. Additionally, overall demand is hitting the 5-year maximum, which may mean short-term pressure on price increases. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Seasonality of natural gas inventories in the USA The implied change in inventories for this week is 0, which means very high gas consumption. This may mean that the rate of inventory growth may slow down somewhat, which is, however, consistent with seasonality. Nevertheless, high gas production and the shift of the heating season could lead to inventory growth above 4000 Bcf, which could clearly limit the level of prices after strong rollovers just before the start of the heating season. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB EMISS (CO2 emission allowances): Prices for CO2 emission allowances in Europe remained below 70 EUR per ton for a long time this year due to uncertainty regarding the future of the ETS2 system. Increased demand for electricity (high temperatures, construction of AI centers) also causes increased demand for allowances. July is usually a month in which the supply of allowances at auctions falls or is adjusted due to the holiday period (lower market liquidity). Prices are currently remaining below 100 EUR/MWh due to limited economic growth and trade tensions. The construction of RES in Europe is also progressing, although weather fluctuations also cause an increase in the volatility of emission prices. The long-term perspective indicates an increase in emission prices up to 130-150 EUR/t by 2030, due to decreasing supply. Nevertheless, regulatory uncertainty means that the price increase is not certain at present. In mid-July, the EU presented a proposal for a reform of the ETS1 system, however, the changes are cosmetic in nature – they assume greater flexibility and a slight slowing down of the pace of phasing out free allowances, which was supposed to start this year. The ETS2 system is to start in 2028, but formal auctions are to take place already in 2027. To prevent a price shock and the shifting of high costs to the consumer, a frontloading of emission allowances is to be carried out in 2027 and 130% of the annual limit of allowances will be offered. Seasonality of CO2 emission allowance prices Nominal seasonality of allowance prices indicates an increase until the third week of August, and then a clear reduction and the start of an increase in October. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Technical analysis of the CO2 emission market Key support for emission prices is located in the range of 80–82 EUR per ton, while the potential of the current upward movement reaches from 85 to 87 EUR. Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Singapore: Strong growth momentum defies risks – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng highlights that Singapore’s economy is set to deliver above-trend growth for a third straight year in 2026, supported by manufacturing, wholesale trade and financial services. Following a robust 2Q26 performance and the ongoing global AI boom, DBS raises its 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 5.0%, noting MTI’s upgraded official projection and lingering geopolitical challenges. Above-trend expansion driven by AI "Singapore’s economic growth was robust in 2Q26, as confirmed by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). GDP growth was revised up to 5.9% yoy and 1.4% qoq sa, in line with our expectations." "The modest upward revision from the advance estimates of 5.7% yoy and 1.1% qoq sa reflected firmer expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors. Growth was driven by the strong performance of manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance & insurance sectors." "We are raising our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 5.0%, from 4.3%, on the back of strong 1H26 performance, and the likely persistence of the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom." "This is despite ongoing geopolitical challenges, and a moderation in the overall GDP cycle due partly to high base effects." "MTI also further upgraded its official 2026 GDP growth projection to 4.5%-5.5%, from 2.0-4.0%, considering the improved external demand outlook, despite continuing to acknowledge downside risks to the global economy."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Gold: ETF inflows and sceptical outlook – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold breaking above USD 4,400 per ounce despite a sharp Oil rally, with Fed rate expectations only modestly higher after weak US labour data. ETF investors added 14.5 tons over four days, and global Gold ETFs saw July inflows of 23.5 tons, mainly in Europe and Asia. Fritsch remains sceptical that Gold can defy higher Oil and rates for long. Price surge driven by ETF demand "This morning, the gold price rose above the USD 4,400 per troy ounce mark for the first time since early June." "Despite the higher oil price, interest rate expectations have risen only slightly and remain lower than they were before Friday’s disappointing US labour market data." "Gold is receiving a boost from ETF investors." "According to data from Bloomberg, there have been inflows into gold ETFs totalling 14.5 tons over the last four trading days." "We view the recent price rise with scepticism, as interest rate expectations are unlikely to decouple from higher oil prices on a sustained basis."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA holds hawkish bias with steady rates – ING

ING’s Chris Turner reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates at 4.35%, while Governor Michele Bullock delivered a hawkish message, stressing upside inflation risks and revealing that a hike was discussed. Short-dated Australian yields reversed higher. ING’s FX team does not expect further RBA hikes this year but still projects AUD/USD rising toward 0.73 by year-end. Hawkish RBA and AUD/USD upside "The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.35% today. Some argue that the added description of the policy as 'somewhat restrictive' means that the RBA is less likely to hike in future." "However, Governor Michele Bullock proved quite hawkish at the press conference, reminding the audience that the RBA sees inflation risks as skewed to the upside and admitting that the RBA did discuss the possibility of a rate hike at today's meeting." "Our team does not see a further RBA rate hike this year, but from an FX perspective, we still see AUD/USD heading up to 0.73 by year-end."

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Forex Trading

August 11, 2026

Trade of The Day: AUS/USD

Facts AUDUSD has been holding above the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10; yellow) for seven consecutive sessions. Michele Bullock, Governor of the RBA: "We may need further interest rate hikes." The probability of an interest rate hike in Australia by the end of 2026 increased from approx. 50% to approx. 67% over the past week. Recommendation Position: Long (BUY) on AUDUSD at market price Target Price (Take Profit; TP): 0.71400 (TP1), 0.71850 (TP2) Stop Loss (SL): 0.70000 Source: xStation5 Opinion The AUDUSD exchange rate has been moving in an uptrend since early July, reinforced by the dovish tone of the July FOMC meeting. Currently, the swap market prices in roughly a 50% chance of a September rate hike, marking a sharp decline from expectations prior to the Fed's latest decision (when probability sat near 100%). Monetary support for the dollar weakened further following an unexpected decline in US payrolls according to the latest NFP report. Furthermore, consensus estimates for the upcoming inflation report project CPI falling to 3.4% YoY—its lowest level since April 2026. Despite a recent correction, US Treasury yields remain higher than before Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair, meaning that even a higher-than-expected CPI reading is unlikely to back the Fed into a corner regarding rate hikes, thereby limiting the potential for a pro-dollar surprise. Conversely, market pricing for Australian rate hikes shifted higher following today's RBA decision. While the Australian central bank kept interest rates on hold at 4.35% and presented more dovish economic forecasts, Governor Michele Bullock's comments keep markets on high alert. In addition to acknowledging the potential need for further hikes, Bullock signaled that the RBA requires more time to feel confident that inflation is cooling down—especially given the recent record employment surge of 76,000 jobs. Recent shifts in central bank communications, alongside dynamics in bond and interest rate markets, support a continuation of the AUDUSD uptrend. A potential dip in global risk appetite stemming from escalation in the Middle East remains a key risk factor, though volatility on the pair is becoming increasingly desensitized to geopolitical swings. Shift in Australian monetary policy expectations (red: current pricing, blue: one week ago, gray: 4 weeks ago). Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg WIPR OIS data. Methodology This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the AUDUSD chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (monetary policy in Australia and the US). The directional bias was determined using moving averages and market expectations regarding central bank policies. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were established using Fibonacci retracements and price action: TP1 is set at the late May / early June resistance level. TP2 is set at the 78.6% Fibonacci level. SL is placed at the July support level, which coincides with the 100-day dark violet EMA.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Cocoa loses 4% amid news from Ghana. What’s next for the market?

Key takeaways ICE cocoa futures are down around 4% today, while COCOBOD’s new financing model is easing concerns that liquidity problems in Ghana could disrupt cocoa purchases and exports. COCOBOD plans to raise around GHS 16 billion annually on the domestic market, including through 270-day commercial paper, moving away from the foreign syndicated-loan model used for more than three decades. Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer and, together with Côte d’Ivoire, accounts for around 60% of global production, making greater stability in the region’s supply chain highly relevant for cocoa prices. ICE cocoa futures have come under pressure today, falling 4% following new developments from Ghana, as the market sees scope for improved financing of bean purchases in the world’s second-largest cocoa-producing country. COCOBOD plans to begin issuing debt on the domestic market later in August, moving away from the foreign syndicated-loan model that had underpinned the sector’s financing for more than three decades. For the market, this could be a meaningful shift: better access to capital may reduce the risk that liquidity constraints disrupt purchases from farmers and the subsequent flow of cocoa into the export supply chain. Recent COCOBOD announcements concerning the sector’s outlook have already triggered profit-taking in cocoa futures, with US contracts ending last week around 4.3% below their local three-week high. In my view, the market is therefore beginning to remove part of Ghana’s financial risk premium, although this does not mean that the fundamental challenges on the production side have been resolved. COCOBOD Turns to Domestic Capital Ghana is preparing one of the most significant changes to the way its cocoa sector is financed in decades. COCOBOD plans to begin issuing Ghanaian cedi-denominated debt instruments later this month, including 270-day commercial paper, under a new funding programme expected to operate for five years. COCOBOD expects to raise around GHS 16 billion annually on the domestic financial market, primarily to finance ongoing operations and cocoa purchases. The 270-day maturity is designed to match the cocoa purchasing cycle, as around 70% of the crop is purchased by COCOBOD between September and January. The potential domestic capital base is substantial. Ghanaian pension funds manage more than GHS 100 billion in assets, meaning local institutional investors could become a key pillar of the new funding model. Part of the proceeds will be used to service COCOBOD’s existing debt, meaning not all of the newly raised capital will be available to finance future cocoa purchases. From the cocoa market’s perspective, the key issue is the potential reduction in financial risk across the supply chain. If COCOBOD gains more stable access to working capital, liquidity constraints should be less likely to disrupt purchases of beans from farmers. However, this does not solve all of the sector’s problems. Financing operations through short-term debt that must be rolled over regularly still leaves COCOBOD dependent on financial-market conditions. Ghana is therefore largely replacing the risk of access to foreign financing with refinancing risk in its domestic market. The End of a Financing Model That Lasted More Than Three Decades? For more than 30 years, Ghana financed seasonal cocoa purchases primarily through annual syndicated loans provided by international banks. The country’s debt crisis exposed the weaknesses of this model, with difficulties in securing financing eventually beginning to affect the functioning of the cocoa sector itself. Financing for 2023 was delayed, while ahead of the 2024/25 crop season the traditional syndicated-loan model ultimately ceased to function. COCOBOD consequently began shifting towards domestic and alternative sources of capital, with the planned commercial paper programme representing the next stage of that transition. The regulator still has to deal with substantial legacy obligations. In 2023, around GHS 7.93 billion of short-term Cocoa Bills were restructured into longer-dated instruments maturing between 2024 and 2028. As a result, COCOBOD continues to face significant debt-servicing costs. For a commodity trader, this is an important part of the equation. Cocoa markets naturally focus heavily on weather, crop size, tree diseases and inventories, but in West Africa the financial infrastructure connecting farmers with the global market can be equally important. Beans may physically exist on farms, but without an efficient system for financing purchases, that does not necessarily mean they will quickly reach ports and enter the global supply chain. Why Are Cocoa Prices Falling? From a futures-market perspective, the key factor is the change in perceived risk surrounding future supply. If COCOBOD can finance purchases from farmers more efficiently, the probability that the regulator’s financial difficulties become an additional constraint on physical cocoa availability declines. This is why an improvement in the funding model can be interpreted as bearish for prices in the short term. It does not imply a sudden increase in production, but it raises the probability that existing beans will move more efficiently through the purchasing system and onto the market. It is important, however, to distinguish liquidity from actual production. The new financing system will not put more cocoa pods on trees , improve weather conditions or eliminate crop diseases. Weather risks remain significant, with developing El Niño conditions raising concerns about West African production, while heavy rainfall in Ghana is creating favourable conditions for the spread of black pod disease. In my view, this is currently the key fundamental tension in the cocoa market: the financial infrastructure supporting supply may improve, while the production outlook itself remains vulnerable to significant weather-related risks. Ghana Remains a Pillar of Global Cocoa Supply The significance of COCOBOD’s reforms largely reflects Ghana’s position in the global cocoa market. Ghana remains the world’s second-largest cocoa producer after Côte d’Ivoire, with the two countries together accounting for around 60% of global production. Cocoa accounted for around 1.9% of Ghana’s GDP in Q1 2026. According to COCOBOD estimates, cocoa farming supports around 850,000 farming families. The sector generates approximately $2 billion in foreign-exchange revenues for Ghana each year. Major processors operating locally include Cargill, Barry Callebaut, Olam Group-owned ofi and Ghana’s Cocoa Processing Company. This high geographical concentration of supply is one reason why cocoa prices can react much more aggressively to developments in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire than many other major agricultural commodities. The market has relatively little margin for error when problems emerge simultaneously in its two most important producing countries. Ghana Wants to Capture More Value from Cocoa The change in financing is part of a broader reform of the sector. The government also wants to increase domestic processing, with a target of processing at least 50% of Ghana’s cocoa beans locally from the 2026/27 crop season. From an economic perspective, the rationale is clear. Ghana wants to capture a larger share of the cocoa value chain rather than remaining predominantly an exporter of raw beans. Greater domestic processing could mean that a growing share of exports eventually leaves the country as semi-finished cocoa products rather than unprocessed beans. However, I would not view the 50% target as a direct bullish argument for cocoa prices. For the global balance, the most important variables remain the size of the crop and worldwide demand for cocoa beans – where the beans are ultimately processed primarily changes the structure of trade flows. What Comes Next for Cocoa Prices? In my view, COCOBOD’s new financing model is positive for the stability of the physical market but could remain a negative factor for futures prices in the short term. The lower the risk of disruptions to cocoa purchasing and export financing, the less justification there is for futures to carry a large premium for potential supply problems in Ghana. That does not mean the fundamental supply problem has disappeared. Cocoa remains exceptionally sensitive to weather conditions. History shows that during strong El Niño episodes, global cocoa production can decline significantly , while the market, following previous weak harvests, remains vulnerable even to relatively modest supply disruptions. Three factors are therefore likely to be crucial for the direction of prices: Ghana’s actual crop size, the effectiveness of COCOBOD’s new financing system and the production outlook across West Africa. If purchasing is financed smoothly while Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire deliver larger crops, the scarcity premium could continue to decline. If improved financing coincides with weak production caused by adverse weather or crop diseases, however, cocoa could quickly return to gains as the market refocuses on the risk of a physical deficit – even if demand remains subdued. COCOA Chart (D1 Interval) Cocoa futures have recently approached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the strong 2025 downward move and are now trading increasingly close to the lower boundary of the rising price channel. An important support zone remains around $5,300–5,400 per tonne, while key resistance based on price-action methodology is located near $6,150. The new financing model is reducing the risk premium and weighing on prices in the short term, but it does not resolve issues related to crop size, weather conditions and plant diseases, which remain key risks to supply. Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Japanese Yen: Wider range with intervention support against US Dollar – HSBC

HSBC strategists discuss the sharp post-intervention drop following coordinated action by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury. They argue that joint intervention is more effective than unilateral moves but unlikely to change the broader trend without improved Japanese fundamentals. They expect USD/JPY to remain mostly range-bound, potentially in a wider band, and stay cautious on a sustained US Dollar (USD) downtrend versus Japanese Yen (JPY). Joint action, range-bound dynamics "USD/JPY fell sharply after coordinated interventions to support the JPY on 30 and 31 July by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) (Nikkei, 1 August) and the US Treasury (FT, 1 August). Both authorities confirmed the joint action on 3 August and said they will not hesitate to do more if needed (Bloomberg, 3 August)." "After the MoF’s solo intervention in April-May 2026, USD/JPY took seven weeks to return to pre-intervention levels. We believe the market will now be more cautious to rebuild speculative short JPY positions given the increasing scale of MoF intervention, involvement by the US Treasury and sharper USD-JPY declines." "Second, intervention alone is unlikely to change the underlying trend of USD/JPY. A sustained JPY recovery would likely require more attractive real interest rates (i.e., interest rates adjusted for inflation) in Japan and reduced fiscal concerns, while a major shift in residents’ capital flows should also help." "Our base case remains that USD/JPY will be mostly range-bound, capped by periodic MoF intervention but supported by persistently negative real rates in Japan. The range may now be wider due to both USD factors (recent softer US data, less predictable Fed communication and persistent geopolitical uncertainty) and JPY factors (joint intervention, potential changes involving the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Government Pension Investment Fund and tax-exempt savings accounts)." "However, unless we see much faster BoJ rate hikes, a clearer government preference for JPY strength (rather than saying that JPY weakness has both positive and negative implications) and a dialling back of fiscal expansion ambitions, we remain cautious about projecting a sustained downtrend for USD/JPY."

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Energies

August 11, 2026

Crude Oil Extends Rally on US-Iran Deal Uncertainty

Crude oil rose above $83 per barrel on Tuesday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session as hopes for a US-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz continued to fade. President Donald Trump introduced new demands on Tehran, further complicating negotiations over the strategic waterway. Trump said that Iran would be required to provide compensation for people it has killed in conflicts as part of future negotiations, following Tehran’s own calls for reparations related to the war. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry said negotiations between Oman and Iran were at an advanced stage, offering some hope of progress toward an agreement. Oil prices were also supported by concerns over US inventories, with the latest data showing that crude stocks held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had fallen to their lowest level in more than four decades.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Aluminum Rises to Near 2-Month High

Aluminum futures in the UK rose to $3,380 per tonne in August, the highest in nearly two months, on declining supply from key producers. The Alunorte plant in Brazil, the world's largest alumina plant outside of China, was forced to cut operations to half capacity amid the lack of natural gas from its supplier. The developments deepened the detriment to Norsk Hydro, the main client for Alunorte. The firm had already declared two force majeures on aluminum sales after its joint Qatari venture Qatalum plant was forced to shut off production on natural gas shortages after Iran had damaged energy and metallurgy infrastructure in the Middle East. Supply from nations in the Persian Gulf has been hampered since the start of the US-Iran conflict in March, due to both direct destruction of plants and blockades on trade routs for exports. The region is responsible for around 10% of global production pre-war. Still, futures are below four-year peaks from this year on softening Chinese demand.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Gold Rally hits pause near $4,440 with US CPI in focus

Gold price retreats from the two-month high of $4,435.40 as oil prices rise. Heightened Hormuz reopening uncertainty has prompted oil prices Investors shift their focus to the US CPI data for July. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.26% lower at around $4,380 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal comes off the two-month high of $4,435 posted earlier in the day, as oil prices have rallied further due to escalated uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. Brent extends gains as US-Iran tensions keep Strait of Hormuz in focus Analysts at Danske Bank highlight that in commodities, “Brent crude climbed to USD 87/bbl as hopes faded once again for a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.” They note that negotiations over the key shipping route “have stalled, with President Trump's latest demands on war compensation adding further uncertainty to the prospect of a deal,” leaving the oil complex firmly driven by geopolitical risk. Higher oil prices prompt global inflation expectations, a scenario that accelerates fears of interest rate hikes by global central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Gold. Meanwhile, financial markets await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday. The inflation data is expected to significantly influence Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, as Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his July monetary policy press conference that officials are committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target. ING strategists point out that “US rates ended last week with a dovish aftertaste on the back of poor payroll numbers, but the CPI figure this week should be more instrumental.” With “only two more CPI readings” before the September Fed meeting and “around 40% of a hike priced in,” they argue that markets still need to “make up their minds about the next Fed move.” ING adds that “a benign CPI could help ease fears about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turning the central bank overly dovish, which should also bring longer rates lower too,” reinforcing the idea that the inflation data will be pivotal in shaping both policy expectations and the rates curve. Gold Technical Analysis XAU/USD trades at around $4,377.89. The metal holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,174.76, keeping the short-term trend supported. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.40 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting firm upside momentum but also hinting that the latest advance could be vulnerable to a pause or shallow correction. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $4,174.76, which coincides with the July high that was the prior resistance zone. Looking up, the yellow metal needs a decisive break above the intraday high at $4,435.40 to extend the rally towards the May 29 high at $4,595.34.

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Brent: Inflation risks rise with Hormuz standoff – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that Brent Oil has broken above $85, closing near $88 as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and rhetoric between the US and Iran escalates. They notes a fourth straight Brent rally, higher 6‑month futures, and rising Euro inflation swaps, all feeding renewed speculation on more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate paths. Oil surge revives inflation concerns "If the eclipse offers a temporary darkening of the skies, markets found a darker cloud in the inflation outlook yesterday, as oil prices rose again amid the absence of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling fresh speculation about rate hikes." "In fact, Brent crude (+4.99% to $87.72/bbl) rallied past $85/bbl for the first time this month, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+6.2bps) unwound the entirety of its decline after Friday’s payrolls with September Fed hike pricing returning to above 50% ahead of tomorrow's CPI." "In addition, fears of a more protracted standoff were also gaining momentum, with the 6-month Brent future (+4.44%) also up to $80.24/bbl." "So that helped to revive inflation fears on both sides of the Atlantic, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+12.6bps) back up to 2.39% yesterday."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Federal Reserve: Dovish repricing on data and inflation focus – BNY

John Velis at BNY Markets reiterates that he expects no Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, even as risks remain skewed to the upside. A weak US jobs report has reduced the implied probability of a September hike and trimmed tightening priced along the curve, but upcoming CPI and PPI releases remain central to the Fed’s rate deliberations. No hikes view, data-dependent path "We maintain that there will be no rate hikes from the Fed this year, even though we acknowledge that the risk is to the upside." "Last week’s poor jobs report contributed to a slightly more dovish expectation for the funds rate. The probability of a September hike has fallen from more than 70% at the end of July to around 50-50 as of this writing." "Further out the curve, the market has also taken out some tightening – from more than two hikes by this time next year to something below that now, closer to 1.8 by next July." "Inflation is clearly the more important variable for the Fed to consider in its rate deliberations, and we’ll get more news on that this week with CPI and PPI to come out on Wednesday and Thursday respectively." "Should we see some disinflation later this week, we would expect the curve to reprice more dovishly."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA keeps door open – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen reports that the Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped briefly after the RBA left its policy rate unchanged, as markets interpreted the statement and downgraded growth and inflation forecasts as dovish. Governor Bullock later stressed that another hike is “quite possible” and that the economy remains above capacity, while Rabobank’s Australia strategist still expects one more rate increase in November. RBA pause but hawkish tone "The Australian dollar also slipped briefly after today’s RBA decision. The central bank kept its policy rate unchanged as expected, but traders read some dovish language in the statement, and the downward revisions to the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts." "However, RBA Governor Bullock corrected that in her press conference. She commented that policymakers debated whether to hold or to hike, adding that it is “quite possible” that the RBA needs to hike rates again." "As our Australia strategist noted prior to today’s meeting, the RBA seems to hope that the three rate hikes since the start of the year will be sufficient to dampen domestic demand. However, we are not entirely convinced that it is. Accordingly, we forecast that the central bank will have to raise rates once more, in November."

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Energy Leads Gains in Europe, ASML Rebounds While Alcon Rises 4% After Earnings

Key takeaways European and US equity indices are trading relatively flat around 4.5 hours ahead of the US market open. Oil prices are up more than 2% amid the ongoing impasse over the Strait of Hormuz. Shares of Swiss eye-care giant Alcon are rising following its earnings report, while energy stocks are leading gains across Europe. European indices remain close to all-time highs, but rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to limit investors’ risk appetite. The deadlock in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices higher again, increasing the risk of persistent inflationary pressures. At the same time, the earnings season is revealing growing divergence between sectors, while investors are becoming more demanding toward technology companies that previously benefited from the AI boom. The health of the U.S. economy also remains in focus following the weak labor market report. The next key event for global markets will be the U.S. CPI inflation release, which could shape expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves. The Stoxx Europe 600 remains close to record highs, but European equities have entered a wait-and-see phase in which geopolitical developments and energy prices are having a greater impact on short-term sentiment. Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have reached another impasse after the Donald Trump administration hardened its stance toward proposals put forward by Iran and Oman, reducing the chances of a swift de-escalation in the region. Brent crude has climbed above $84 per barrel to its highest level since late July, supporting European energy stocks while simultaneously raising costs for industry and increasing the risk of renewed inflationary pressure. The European earnings season remains broadly solid, particularly in healthcare, energy infrastructure and defense, although technology and industrial companies are facing a much more demanding response from investors. Among individual stocks, Alcon stands out, with shares rising almost 4% after the company raised its full-year earnings outlook. Markets are beginning to take a more cautious view of the AI investment boom. Heavy spending on data centers, semiconductors and AI infrastructure is no longer enough to sustain share-price gains unless it is accompanied by a clear path toward rapid revenue growth. For equity markets, the combination of high energy prices and weaker economic growth is becoming particularly important: more expensive oil can increase cost and inflation pressures, while the latest weak U.S. labor market report has raised concerns about the pace of growth in the world’s largest economy. The main macroeconomic event will be Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report. Softer inflation could ease concerns related to higher energy prices and support expectations for a more accommodative Fed, while a stronger-than-expected reading could put renewed pressure on equity valuations, particularly in the most interest-rate-sensitive areas of the market. EU50 chart (D1 timeframe) Euro Stoxx 50 futures are not experiencing any significant spike in volatility today, with sentiment across European markets remaining relatively calm. U.S. index futures are also trading without major changes. Source: xStation5 Euro Stoxx 50 – market overview The Euro Stoxx 50 remains in a very strong trend, up 12.9% year-to-date and 20.3% over the past 12 months, with the index trading close to all-time highs. Market breadth remains particularly constructive: 72% of constituents are trading above their 50-day moving average and 68% above their 200-day SMA, indicating that the rally is not being driven solely by a handful of the largest companies. At the same time, a P/E ratio of around 20x shows that investors are already paying a premium for European blue chips, meaning that further gains will require confirmation from corporate earnings and guidance. In the short term, the market therefore remains fundamentally strong, but after gaining 4.2% over the past month and approaching record highs, it has become more vulnerable to profit-taking in response to negative macroeconomic or geopolitical catalysts. Source: XTB Research Stock heatmap – ASML and energy offset weaker segments The Euro Stoxx 50 heatmap points to significant rotation within the index, with relatively calm benchmark performance masking much larger moves among individual stocks. ASML (+0.94%) remains one of the index’s key pillars due to its substantial weighting, while TotalEnergies (+1.91%) and Eni (+1.88%) are benefiting from the renewed rise in oil prices. On the other side, AB InBev (-2.31%), Prosus (-1.47%) and Airbus (-1.42%) are among the laggards, indicating that today’s gains are far from broad-based. This market structure points primarily to capital rotation between sectors rather than a broad risk-on move across European equities. The strength of European energy stocks alongside higher oil prices is also visible more broadly across the continent. Source: XTB Research Higher oil prices support energy stocks, weigh on travel Elevated oil prices are creating clear divergence between individual sectors of the European equity market. The energy sector gained around 1% as crude prices reached their highest level this month. The next move may depend largely on developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and upcoming macroeconomic data. The energy sector gained around 1%, supported by oil prices climbing to their highest levels in August. Donald Trump responded to Iran’s conditions with demands of his own, including compensation payments, potentially further complicating negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Travel and leisure stocks fell around 0.7% as higher fuel prices renewed concerns over operating costs. European technology stocks performed better, with the sector index gaining around 0.4%. Europe’s earnings season is approaching its final stages, shifting market attention toward macroeconomic data, particularly eurozone employment and GDP figures. Leaders and laggards – market rewards exposure to higher oil prices TotalEnergies (+1.91%) and Eni (+1.88%) are among the strongest performers, showing how higher crude prices are once again translating directly into relative strength among energy producers. ASML is also performing strongly, with shares up 0.94% during the session and as much as 66.7% year-to-date, although its P/E ratio of around 55x illustrates how much future growth is already priced into the stock. On the downside, AB InBev (-2.31%), Adyen (-1.53%), Prosus (-1.47%) and Airbus (-1.42%) stand out, once again highlighting the selective nature of today’s trading. From a broader perspective, however, the strongest signal comes from the energy sector. TotalEnergies and Eni are up approximately 38.5% and 48.9% year-to-date, respectively, suggesting that today’s move is a continuation of an established trend rather than merely a one-day reaction to higher oil prices. Source: XTB Research Sectors – technology and energy take the lead Technology is the strongest driver of today’s market, gaining 1.32%, while energy is another clear leader with a 1.60% advance. This creates an interesting combination of two very different investment themes: technology is benefiting from structural demand for semiconductors and AI, while energy is responding primarily to higher oil prices and the geopolitical risk premium. Communication services (-1.80%) are the largest drag, while declines in utilities (-0.82%) and materials (-0.49%) are also limiting the broader index move. From an index perspective, the key question is whether technology can maintain its momentum, as the sector’s substantial weighting means that ASML and other large constituents may have a greater impact on the direction of the Euro Stoxx 50 than the overall number of sectors trading higher. Source: XTB Research Alcon rallies after earnings and higher profit guidance Alcon shares are rising sharply following the company’s second-quarter results, as investors focus primarily on an improved outlook for the full 2026 financial year. Revenue increased 8% year-over-year and slightly exceeded analysts’ expectations, while management raised its adjusted EPS and operating margin guidance. The positive share-price reaction suggests that investors view the one-off PowerVision charge as less relevant to the underlying health of the company’s core business. Alcon generated second-quarter revenue of $2.78 billion, up 8% year-over-year and slightly above the consensus estimate of approximately $2.77 billion. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.44–$3.53, compared with analysts’ expectations of $3.41, while also increasing its full-year operating margin outlook. Full-year sales guidance was widened to $10.835–$11.041 billion, compared with a consensus estimate of approximately $11.087 billion, meaning the midpoint of the range remains below market expectations. Reported EPS fell to $0.00 from $0.35 a year earlier, although the figure was affected by a one-off, non-cash after-tax charge of approximately $287 million related to the discontinuation of intraocular lens programs acquired from PowerVision. Investors focused on the performance of Alcon’s underlying business and the improved guidance, treating the PowerVision impairment as a one-off event that does not reflect the current health of the Surgical and Vision Care segments. Alcon share price chart (D1 timeframe, ALC.CH) Source: xStation5

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Banks

August 11, 2026

US Dollar: Volatility sinks as carry trades hold – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that FX volatility is falling as investors appear comfortable with the Federal Reserve holding or potentially tightening rates in September. He highlights limited impact from upcoming US CPI on carry trades, but warns that higher US Treasury yields and heavy tech-sector issuance could threaten the benign backdrop. DXY is seen staying in a tight 99.50-100.00 range. Fed risks and bond market supply "Perhaps unsurprisingly, realised FX volatility is sinking in mid-August. The main risk event on the horizon is the Fed's policy meeting on 16 September, where the market prices exactly a 50% chance of a 25bp hike. Whether the Fed hikes or not will be determined by a few data points ahead of that meeting." "Should tomorrow's US July CPI release nudge market pricing towards or against a September Fed hike, we doubt it would have much impact on the carry trade." "The one wrinkle on the horizon is the bond market. Longer-dated US Treasury yields are at the top of recent ranges and the tech industry is planning a lot more issuance. Nvidia announced yesterday it would partner with six investment houses to arrange $500bn of debt financing for its customers." "A sell-off in the bond market probably remains one of the key threats to a benign environment over the coming months." "DXY looks set to continue trading in a 99.50-100.00 range into tomorrow's CPI release."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Japanese Yen: Yield outlook fails to lift Yen – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains the main G10 laggard despite higher domestic yields and Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening. With the 10-year JGB potentially rising toward 3.50% as further 75bp of BoJ hikes are expected, FX markets still show limited enthusiasm for the Yen, while USD/JPY trades above the 200-day moving average and near the 159 level. Higher JGB yields not supporting JPY "A quiet session overnight cemented the position of the JPY as the main laggard in G10 ten days into August, a vastly different trajectory compared to this time in 2024, when following unilateral dollar sales by Japan’s MoF, the currency was head and shoulders above the rest of G10 and scoring a 3% gain vs the dollar." "With another 75bp of tightening potentially to come by the BoJ by this time next year according to SG economists, we’re looking realistically at a 10y yield of around 3.50%, above the Bund." "The prospect of a positive premium for 10y Japanese over German yields is not sufficient however not to convince the FX markets of the attractiveness of the Yen." "EUR/JPY trades within 2.3% of all-time highs after clawing back 2.4% from the coordinated intervention low two weeks ago." "USD/JPY recovered above the 200dma and is back above 159 handle on dip buying."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Australian Dollar : Hawkish hold keeps risks alive – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo note that the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous decision, with the Statement and updated forecasts sounding less hawkish than expected. However, Governor Bullock emphasized that another hike remains possible if upside inflation risks materialize, leaving the Australian Dollar sensitive to incoming data and RBA communications. Hawkish hold with upside inflation risks "The RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 4.35% as expected in a unanimous decision. The Statement read less hawkishly than anticipated and the revised forecasts imply a less hawkish stance too. However, the Press Conference took on a hawkish tone with the Governor stressing a number of times that another hike is a possibility, a risk to our call for a prolonged RBA hold." "However, the Statement and the forecasts published today suggest a rate hike is not the Bank's central forecast, implying the bar for a follow-up RBA hike this year has been lifted." "As stated above, the RBA's forecasts don't speak to another hike and the Bank does not appear to have the appetite to hike preemptively either." "Clearly the RBA is not out of the woods. The Bank's trimmed mean CPI forecasts for Q3 and Q4 imply 0.8% q/q prints for both quarters. While the Statement and the forecasts don't signal alarm, the Governor was at pains to state where the risks lie for inflation, and they are to the upside." "Indeed, if the RBA's 4.35% cash rate did not get the job done on inflation previously and the Minutes of the June meeting noted estimates of the real neutral rate have risen over preceding years (in addition to observations detailed above), then the RBA may not have the wiggle room it needs to get inflation back

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Markets

August 11, 2026

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Supported by rising Oil prices

The US Dollar Index gains further to near 99.90 amid rising Oil prices. Traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets due to weakness in the US labor market. Investors shift their focus to the US CPI data, which will be released on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) extends its Monday recovery move on Tuesday, as rising Oil prices due to prolonged fears of energy supply disruption keep global inflation expectations de-anchored. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 99.90. Meanwhile, fears of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike have eased as the latest United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July revealed a reduction in the overall labor force and a downward revision in labor additions figures of previous months. Strategists at ING say the latest US labor market data has delivered “clearly dovish and dollar-negative” signals, reinforcing their conviction that the Fed is done hiking. They highlight that, as James Knightley notes, “the -20k payroll print was not the only concern,” with “more than 100k of downward revisions” leaving “average payroll growth at just 20k over the past three months, with health and social care still doing most of the heavy lifting.” Against that backdrop, ING argues that “our dovish Fed call is strengthening, and so is our bearish bias on the Dollar.” They point out that “despite Friday’s repricing, 11bp are still priced in for September, 28bp for December and 40bp for April,” and conclude that “there remains ample room for dovish repricing to harm the Dollar if we are right about the Fed.” The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the September meeting are 48.3%, up from 30.4% seen a month ago. Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis In the daily chart, the Dollar Index DXY trades at 99.87, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 100.32. The index has retreated from earlier highs, and the EMA now acts as immediate overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41 shows subdued momentum, hinting at a lack of strong buying interest on current dips. On the topside, the first hurdle is the 20-day EMA at 100.32, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery. On the downside, the US Dollar index could slide towards 99.00 and the May 29 low at 98.75 if it fails to hold Friday's low at 99.40.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Dow Jones futures slip as US-Iran tensions, rate hike fears weigh on sentiment

Dow Jones futures struggle as US-Iran friction raises oil supply concerns, boosting inflation fears. Iran ruled out negotiating with President Trump, stating talks will remain frozen until his term ends in 2029. Investors await key inflation data and earnings reports from Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, and Super Micro Computer. Dow Jones futures decline by 0.11% to trade around 54,000 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are steady around 7,770 and Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.12%, trading near 29,770. US stock futures are mixed as traders adopt a cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Rising concerns over potential oil supply disruptions have fueled inflation fears, leading to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel compelled to raise interest rates sooner than expected, even against the backdrop of a cooling labor market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September have climbed to nearly 52%, up from 44.4% just a day prior. Iran has explicitly ruled out any future negotiations with US President Donald Trump. Citing Iranian news outlets and a post on X by Majid Shakeri, an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reports indicate that Tehran intends to wait until the current US presidential term ends on January 20, 2029, before considering a return to the bargaining table. "Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends," Shakeri stated. Chipmakers retreat as energy and health care cushion US equity pullback Jim Reid’s team at Deutsche Bank notes that the broader US equity complex softened, with the NASDAQ (-0.32%) and Russell 2000 (-0.56%) also losing ground. They highlight that “energy (+4.63%) and health care (+1.68%) sectors helped limit the S&P 500’s decline,” even as the tech space came under renewed pressure. Leading the losses were chipmakers, with Deutsche Bank pointing out that “the Philly semi index dropping -2.94% after its +9.25% rebound last week” marked a sharp reversal for the sector. Looking ahead, investors are closely monitoring upcoming inflation data scheduled for release this week to better gauge the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Meanwhile, on the corporate front, market participants are keeping an eye on earnings reports due today from key companies, including Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, and Super Micro Computer.

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Hungarian Forint: Near-term gains against Euro before renewed pressure – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose describes recent Forint weakness as a high-beta correction that only partly erases post-election outperformance. He expects EUR/HUF to recover toward 350–355 if global risk sentiment improves, but warns that accelerating core inflation and narrowing real interest rates as MNB cuts will later weigh on HUF, limiting the durability of any interim recovery. High-beta correction then structural headwinds "The forint has corrected weaker recently through the global market risk-off. This reflects its high-beta status within the eastern European peer group." "This near-term correction should not be over-interpreted as the forint has only given up a fraction of its outperformance since the April election, which had brought regime change. The regime-change story itself has not disappointed; Tisza’s ratings remain strong, and Peter Magyar is moving ahead with reforms on multiple fronts." "If the global risk backdrop were to ease, the forint would recover a part of its losses, with EUR/HUF moving back to the 350-355 range. Later, however, the familiar constraints and a falling real interest rate will weigh down on the exchange rate." "July CPI data showed underlying core inflation measures accelerating." "Hungary’s real interest rate is likely to narrow as MNB cuts rates and as underlying inflation momentum stays elevated."

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Forex Trading

August 11, 2026

Chart of the Day: USDJPY Rises Again. Intervention Is Not Enough — Markets Await BoJ Action

USDJPY is once again moving higher, while the yen is beginning to give back some of the gains it made following the joint intervention by Japan and the United States at the end of July. It was an exceptionally strong response from the authorities, which helped push USDJPY sharply lower in a short period of time and gave the yen some much-needed relief. The problem is that just a few days later, the market is once again testing the weakness of the Japanese currency. This shows that FX intervention can be an effective tool for stopping a sharp move, but it may not be enough to produce a lasting change in the trend. In the case of the yen, the underlying problem is much deeper. The gap between interest rates in the United States and Japan remains very wide, and this has been one of the key reasons behind the persistent pressure on the Japanese currency. The market is therefore paying increasing attention to what could happen at the Bank of Japan's September meeting. There are growing signals that the BoJ could decide to raise interest rates again on September 17–18. Such a move would be far more important for the yen than intervention alone, as it would represent a genuine change in the interest-rate differential between Japan and the United States. Source: xStation5 Factors Currently Driving USDJPY Intervention Gave the Yen Some Relief, but the Effect Is Quickly Fading At the end of July, USDJPY approached levels that were difficult for Japanese authorities to accept. The response was particularly decisive, as the United States also joined Japan in taking action this time. The joint operation quickly reversed part of the previous move and led to a strong appreciation of the yen. Initially, the effect was very clear. USDJPY fell toward 157, and the market once again began to consider the possibility of a lasting trend reversal. Today, the situation looks different. The pair is rising again, while support for the yen is starting to look increasingly fragile. The market is paying attention to the fact that Tokyo did not follow up the intervention with further aggressive action, which could indicate that policymakers primarily want to limit excessive market moves rather than permanently target a specific exchange-rate level. This is precisely why intervention alone does not solve the problem. It can stop the market for several days or weeks, but if the underlying conditions remain unchanged, pressure on the yen can quickly return. The BoJ Needs to Do More Than Just Intervene The most important piece of the puzzle remains the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. The BoJ has begun the process of normalizing monetary policy and has already raised interest rates. The market is increasingly expecting that this was not the final move. Recent reports suggest that the central bank could decide to raise rates again at its September 17–18 meeting. For the yen, this would be a much more important signal than another round of FX intervention. A rate hike would narrow the interest-rate differential between US and Japanese assets, reducing the attractiveness of strategies that involve funding investments in higher-yielding currencies with the yen. For now, however, the market still needs to see whether the BoJ will actually be willing to act. The possibility of a September rate hike provides some support for the yen, but only an actual decision — combined with guidance on future moves — could change the market outlook in a more lasting way. The Interest-Rate Differential Remains a Problem for the Yen Even if the BoJ raises rates in September, the gap between US and Japanese interest rates will remain significant. This is where the main problem for the Japanese currency lies. The market may buy the yen for some time in anticipation of a BoJ move, but if the central bank signals a prolonged pause after the hike, the dollar's advantage could quickly return. For this reason, a rate hike alone may not be enough. What will matter much more is whether the BoJ can convince the market that it is beginning a longer-term process of monetary policy normalization. If that happens, USDJPY could enter a more sustained downtrend. If, on the other hand, the BoJ remains cautious while the Fed keeps rates elevated for an extended period, pressure on the yen could return despite another rate hike. The Market Is Testing Tokyo's Credibility Again The latest intervention was also exceptional because both Japan and the United States participated. Such a move strengthened the signal sent to the market and showed that authorities were prepared to act against excessive yen weakness. The problem, however, is that the market is already beginning to test how long that signal will remain effective. If USDJPY once again approaches the levels that previously triggered intervention, Tokyo will face a difficult choice. Another intervention would send a very strong signal, but it would become increasingly difficult to convince the market that government action can permanently reverse the trend without support from monetary policy. That is why the BoJ's September meeting could be more important than the intervention itself. The market will want to see whether the central bank is genuinely prepared to use interest-rate policy as the second pillar in its efforts to combat yen weakness. USDJPY Is Rising Again, but September Could Change the Picture The current rise in USDJPY shows that the effect of the joint Japan-US intervention is gradually fading. The yen received several weeks of relief, but the fundamentals of the FX market have not changed enough to suggest that a lasting trend reversal is underway. Attention is now shifting toward the Bank of Japan. If the BoJ does indeed raise rates in September and its communication signals the possibility of further moves, the yen could receive much stronger and more durable support. If, however, the Japanese central bank raises rates but leaves the market with the impression that further hikes will be difficult to achieve, USDJPY could resume its upward move. For now, the market is showing that intervention alone has not been enough. Japan needs not only to sell dollars and buy yen, but above all to narrow the interest-rate differential. This is precisely why the BoJ's September meeting could be one of the most important events for USDJPY during the entire third quarter. Key Takeaways USDJPY is rising again, showing that the effect of the latest joint Japan-US intervention is beginning to fade. The intervention helped strengthen the yen sharply, but it did not change the underlying fundamentals of the market. The key factor for the yen remains the large interest-rate differential between the United States and Japan. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of another BoJ rate hike at the September 17–18 meeting. If the BoJ signals further monetary policy normalization, the yen could receive significantly more durable support than it did from intervention alone. If the Japanese central bank remains cautious, USDJPY could come under renewed upward pressure. For the yen, the key question is therefore not whether Tokyo can intervene again, but whether the BoJ is prepared to raise rates quickly enough to actually change the fundamentals behind the Japanese currency's weakness.

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Energies

August 11, 2026

UK Gas Prices Rise Further

UK natural gas prices extended sharp gains on Tuesday, rising to 151 pence per therm, as the prospect of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded amid demands from the US and Iran. President Trump on Monday called for Iran to compensate for people it has killed in conflicts, after Tehran sought compensation for damage caused by US and Israeli attacks. This tempered hopes for an immediate resolution that would restore LNG flows through the Persian Gulf. The ongoing disruption has tightened global LNG supplies, intensifying competition with Asian buyers and hampering Europe’s efforts to replenish gas stockpiles ahead of winter. European gas storage sites recently fell to their lowest seasonal levels in records going back to 2009, heightening concerns over winter supplies. Traders are also monitoring extended supply cuts at Norway’s Ormen Lange gas field, Europe’s largest pipeline supplier, as this could further tighten Europe’s already strained gas market and amplify price volatility.

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Energies

August 11, 2026

US Heating Oil Extends Rally

US heating oil prices extended their rally above $4.20 per gallon, moving back toward a four-month high as prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz dimmed. President Donald Trump made demands on Iran, further dimming hopes for an agreement to reopen the waterway. This followed Iran’s statement that a deal with Oman on new shipping routes was close to being finalized, while warning that reopening the waterway remained conditional on Washington meeting additional demands. Meanwhile, an attack claimed by Iran-backed Houthi militants on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery in the Red Sea compounded supply concerns. Saudi authorities said the fire was extinguished early Sunday but gave no further details. Russia’s fuel export restrictions have also added to supply concerns. Refinery capacity remains strained as demand outpaces supply, with US refiners processing crude at the highest seasonal pace since 2018 despite capacity having fallen by 600,000 barrels per day over the same period.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Iron Ore Gains on Supply Concerns

Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 720 per ton, reaching near two-week highs as signs of tightening near-term supply and possible disruptions supported prices. Industry data showed global iron ore shipments declined by 1.38 million tons in the week through August 9 to around 32 million tons, while shipments arriving at Chinese ports dropped by 13.1 million tons to 18.9 million tons. Supply concerns also increased after more workers joined a strike at BHP’s Port Hedland iron ore export hub in Western Australia, although vessel loading operations have continued. Meanwhile, China imported 108.086 million tons of iron ore and concentrates in July, down 4.09% from June but up 3.5% from a year earlier, according to recent data. Figures released over the weekend also showed China’s consumer and producer inflation slowed in July, highlighting continued weakness in domestic demand.

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Banks

August 11, 2026

British Pound: Upside tests but capped near 1.3555 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD extended last week’s rally, but overbought conditions should confine intraday moves to a 1.3490–1.3535 band. On a 1–3 week horizon, the British Pound (GBP) could test 1.3555, though a sustained break above is seen as unlikely, with strong support now at 1.3460. Pound upside persists but gains seen limited "24-HOUR VIEW: GBP soared last Friday and continued to rise yesterday, closing 0.10% higher at 1.3507. While GBP could rise further, the combination of slowing momentum and overbought conditions suggests any advance is likely to be contained within a 1.3490/1.3535 range." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), but we indicated that “it remains to be seen whether it can break above 1.3555.” On Wednesday (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450), we indicated that “upward momentum has since eased, but there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” Last Friday, GBP rose sharply, and yesterday, it rose further and printed a high of 1.3530. Upward momentum has improved slightly, and GBP could test 1.3555. Based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold above 1.3460 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3410).

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening key to recovery against US Dollar – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Japan’s recent FX intervention, backed by United States (US) involvement, has not fully reversed Japanese Yen (JPY) weakness, with USD/JPY near 159 after retracing much of its post-intervention drop. They keep an end‑2026 USD/JPY forecast at 163 but say a more aggressive Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiking path and domestic capital flows back into Japanese assets could drive a more sustained JPY recovery. Yen stability hinges on BoJ decisions "Questions remain over whether Japan’s intervention, likely larger in scale and stronger in signalling power given US involvement, can reverse the JPY’s underlying weakness." "With USD/JPY approaching 159, the pair has already retraced almost 40% of its decline from the pre-intervention high of 164 to the post-intervention low near 155.50. We suspect both Japan and the US stand ready to intervene again if needed to stabilise the JPY." "We maintain our end-2026 USD/JPY forecast of 163. However, we could turn more constructive on the JPY if the BoJ follows through with a more aggressive rate hike path and if policies that encourage GPIF and NISA-related flows back into Japanese assets materialise." "Coordinated intervention has also fuelled expectations of earlier or faster BoJ tightening, helping to stabilise long-end JGB yields. The key risk is that a more stable JPY reduces the urgency for the BoJ to raise rates. With markets pricing around a 60% probability of a September hike, upward pressure on both USD/JPY and long-end JGB yields could re-emerge if the BoJ keeps rates unchanged." "Conversely, a September rate hike, combined with evidence of domestic investors reallocating capital back into Japanese assets, could drive a more sustained JPY recovery and provide longer-lasting relief for long-end JGB yields."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Oil: Upside risks persist as deal optimism fades – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices are firmer as optimism over a potential US–Iran deal fades, keeping supply risks elevated. They highlight continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz despite disruptions and stress that Middle East tensions and tight refined product stocks skew risks to the upside for Oil into the Northern hemisphere winter. Headline-driven market with upside risks "Oil prices are trading stronger as optimism over a US-Iran deal fades, leaving the market to reprice ongoing supply disruptions" "By this point, you’d think markets would be largely immune to headlines about a US–Iran deal. The pattern keeps repeating — initial enthusiasm when negotiations appear promising, only for that optimism to dissipate just as quickly. Yet the oil market remains very headline-driven, which leaves prices whipsawing." "Current rhetoric suggests any potential deal is still some way off, meaning risks remain skewed to the upside for oil prices." "Oil continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz even as disruptions persist, underscoring the market’s ability to keep flows moving despite periodic turbulence." "According to reports, Iraq’s state oil marketing company said oil shipments are around 2m b/d in August." "Prior to the war, Iraq was exporting around 3.4m b/d of oil through the Strait of Hormuz."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA holds rates but downside bias persists – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous decision, with forecasts showing higher unemployment and lower short-term inflation. While medium-term inflation risks justify the possibility of further hikes, he states that the next move is likely a rate cut, suggesting the Australian Dollar (AUD) may stay under pressure over coming months. RBA keeps rate unchanged, rate cut expected "As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged this morning. Contrary to speculation, this decision was also unanimous. Some market participants had anticipated a dissenting vote in favor of raising the benchmark interest rate, but this expectation was not met." "Furthermore, the statement does not read particularly hawkish. The new forecasts revised the expected unemployment rate upward, while short-term inflation forecasts were revised downward." "Only in the medium term were inflation forecasts revised upward, which likely explains the statement that further rate hikes are certainly conceivable and that inflation risks remain on the upside." "All in all, it must be said that the decision and the forecasts seem to be in line with market expectations; the AUD is showing little movement in its initial reaction, at least." "In the medium term, we continue to expect that the RBA’s next move will be an interest rate cut, so the AUD is likely to remain under pressure in the coming months."

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Banks

August 11, 2026

Euro: Gains capped below key resistance against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD has stalled after last week’s surge, with flat momentum pointing to a 1.1530–1.1560 intraday range. For the next 1–3 weeks, the Euro’s upside hurdle has risen, requiring a close above 1.1580 to target 1.1600 and beyond, while strong support has shifted up to 1.1515. Euro consolidates below 1.1580 barrier "24-HOUR VIEW: Having surged to a high of 1.1580 last Friday, EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1539 and 1.1569 yesterday. EUR closed slightly lower by 0.14% at 1.1542. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1530 and 1.1560." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following is from our latest update from last Friday: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase.” EUR subsequently popped to a high of 1.1580 before closing at 1.1558. There has been no significant increase in upward momentum, and the hurdle for further gains has risen, with EUR needing to close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected. The ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.1515 instead of 1.1495."

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Energies

August 11, 2026

WTI Price Forecast: Refreshes weekly high at $82.70 as oil supply uncertainty deepens

The Oil price posts a fresh weekly high near $82.70 amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening. US President Trump has also voiced a demand for war reparations. Iran and Oman are expected to finalize the Hormuz management framework soon. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 1.55% higher at around $82.70 during the European trading session on Tuesday, the highest level seen in over a week. The oil price strengthens as uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, has deepened, following remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump over Iran’s compensation demand. On Monday, US President Trump said, through a post on Truth Social, that Washington also demands reparations for the war, as Iran wants. Trump added, “Iran should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza.” This has escalated uncertainty regarding the resumption of navigation through the Hormuz. Over the weekend, Iran outlined various conditions for Hormuz opening, notably compensation for war damage, unfreezing Iranian assets, removal of the US naval blockade on Iranian sea ports, and lifting of sanctions. Meanwhile, investors seek remarks from Iran and Oman regarding their proposed framework for managing traffic near Hormuz. The finalization of the framework is expected to face backlash from global leaders who have historically endorsed freedom of navigation through the passage. WTI Technical Analysis The WTI US Oil trades sharply higher at around $82.65, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $79.76. Spot above this key trend indicator suggests underlying demand remains in control, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.11 stays in neutral territory, hinting at steady rather than overstretched upside momentum after the recent recovery from the mid-$70s. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $79.76, which reinforces the $80 area as a near-term floor, followed by deeper demand from the recent consolidation lows in the mid-$70s region. Looking up, the oil price will likely extend the advance towards the July 31 high at $85.11; above that, the July 23 high at $92.25 is the key resistance level.

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Earnings

August 11, 2026

Berkshire earnings: What do the reports say about the market’s direction?

Warren Buffett’s legendary fund, now without Warren Buffett, published its Q2 2026 results on Saturday, August 8. Expectations for the fund’s results were moderate, and although the “Oracle of Omaha” is already retired, the latest results suggest that the new management may still have trouble delivering the pace of growth and profit shareholders might expect. Earnings Revenue rose to USD 101.8 billion, versus expectations of about USD 96.5 billion. This represents year-over-year growth of around 10%. Berkshire’s operating profit increased to USD 12.9 billion, up 16% year over year. Net income (GAAP) came in as high as USD 25.6 billion, which implies investment gains of USD 12.6 billion. This is an annual increase of 107% and 155%, respectively. This translates into EPS of USD 6, significantly above the consensus of USD 5. However, the fund’s profit presented in this way is not a reliable reflection of the company’s situation in Q2 2026. Of Berkshire’s USD 12.9 billion profit itself: USD 326 million came from positive foreign-exchange differences (a year earlier, this was a loss of USD 877 million). Taking this dynamic into account, the real operating growth is only 5%. Segments and industries A segment breakdown of the holding company is more transparent. Insurance (underwriting) generated USD 1.7 billion in profit, down year over year, mainly due to GEICO, which is performing poorly. BNSF Railways delivered USD 1.56 billion, up 6%. Berkshire Energy and the service-and-retail segment increased by a further 27% and 24%, reaching more than USD 5 billion in profit.The energy segment is doing well mainly thanks to rising demand for the transmission of energy and goods.The service-and-retail segment, however, is not doing as well as the growth suggests, because a significant portion of the profit is a refund of previously paid tariffs. The energy segment is doing well mainly thanks to rising demand for the transmission of energy and goods. The service-and-retail segment, however, is not doing as well as the growth suggests, because a significant portion of the profit is a refund of previously paid tariffs. Cash flows These results mean operating cash flow increased from USD 20.9 billion to USD 21.6 billion - up 3.2%. Free cash flow totaled USD 11.02 billion versus USD 11.85 billion a year ago - down 7%. Despite this, the new CEO announced a record share buyback worth USD 4.5 billion. The market reaction is predictably cool. Shares at the open of the post-earnings session are hovering slightly below the previous close. Allocation Much more interesting for the broader market are the (still incomplete) disclosures about the company’s purchases. Purchases, because the enormous cash reserve Warren Buffett left behind (over USD 350 billion) has started to flow into the market. In Q2 2026 the fund made net purchases worth nearly USD 20 billion; this is a clear policy shift after as many as 14 consecutive quarters in which the fund was selling stocks. One of the fund’s most important positions is becoming Alphabet. The fund acquired additional shares in the technology company worth over USD 10 billion. Berkshire [BRKA.US] performance vs US500 futures Souce: xStation5 This is a very important signal in the context of where markets are today. The fund waited as long as four years to start buying again, the last time it was buying was in 2022. It is worth remembering that from the COVID-pandemic crash to today, the fund has outperformed the broader market by about 5% on an annualized basis.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Gold rallies further beyond $4,400; highest since early June

Gold attracts buyers for the third straight day and climbs to over a two-month high on Tuesday. Receding Fed hike bets turn out to be a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding bullion. Traders might opt to wait for further geopolitical developments and the latest US inflation figures. Gold (XAU/USD) scales higher for the third consecutive day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to its highest level since June 5, further beyond the $4,400 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. A weak US jobs report released last Friday pointed to signs of a cooling labor market, undermining the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates and driving flows towards the non-yielding bullion. Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile crude oil prices due to the Iran war. This keeps Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table, which helps the US Dollar (USD) preserve the previous day's modest recovery gains and could act as a headwind for the Gold price. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s demand for compensation over damages caused during the war; instead, he held Iran responsible for lives lost across the region. Meanwhile, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with Trump and said that it will wait until the US President’s term ends on January 20, 2029, to resume talks, dampening hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains choked due to the Iran-backed Houthis' naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. This led to the overnight sharp spike in crude oil prices and revived inflation fears. Moreover, traders are still pricing in at least one rate hike by the Fed in 2026. The outlook, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favors USD bulls and warrants caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for gold. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The crucial data will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, will influence the USD and the XAU/USD pair. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis An intraday breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June fall suggest that buyers retain control. This, in turn, supports prospects for additional gains to the 200-day SMA at $4,498, en route to the 61.8% retracement at $4,515 and then the higher 78.6% level near $4,669. On the downside, immediate support is offered by the 50.0% retracement at $4,406, reinforced by the 100-day SMA at $4,389, with deeper structural floors aligning at the 38.2% retracement near $4,297 and the 23.6% level at $4,162 ahead of the cycle low around $3,945.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Arabica Coffee Prices Undercut as Brazil Harvest Expected to Accelerate

September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed down -3.25 (-0.97%) on Monday, and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed up +19 (+0.50%). Coffee prices settled mixed on Monday.  Arabica closed lower as below-normal rainfall in Brazil should allow for the pace of the country’s coffee harvest to speed up, a bearish factor for prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that 5.8 mm of rain, or 92% of the historical average, fell in the week ended August 9 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-coffee growing region. Rising inventories are bearish for robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.5-month high of 4,285 lots on Monday.  By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 242,673 bags on Monday. Arabica has support due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 67.3% complete as of July 31, behind the year-earlier pace of 74.2%.  On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%.  The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On August 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Cattle See Mixed Trade, as Live Cattle Strengthen

Live cattle futures were higher on Monday, with contracts up 82 cents to $1.80 across most months. There were no deliveries issued on first notice day for August live cattle futures. Cash trade picked up last week at $235 live and $370 dressed (North) across the country. It has been quiet so far on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were down 90 cents to $1.55 higher across the board, with the nearbys the weaker. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $1.38 on August 6 to $355.98.   NASS Crop Progress data showed the US pasture rating at 25% gd/ex, steady with the week prior. The Brugler500 index was unchanged at 259. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Monday afternoon report. Choice boxes were up $7.06 at $371.42 with Select down $1.53 to $350.84. The Chc/Sel spread widened to $20.58. USDA’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter for Monday was estimated at 96,000 head. That is up 6,000 head from the previous Monday but 6,323 head below the same week last year. Aug 26 Live Cattle  closed at $233.275, up $1.575, Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $226.900, up $1.625, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $225.950, up $1.800, Aug 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $350.750, down $0.900, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $344.575, down $0.650, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $335.875, up $0.950,

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Energies

August 11, 2026

Coal Rises as Oil Prices Surge

Thermal coal futures rose toward $130 per ton in mid-August, paring recent losses as oil prices surged amid persistent uncertainty over a US-Iran deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices increase the incentive for fuel switching, particularly among energy-importing countries across Europe and Asia. Meanwhile, China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration released the “15th Five-Year Plan for Coal Industry Development,” which aims to lift the proportion of capacity from large, modernized coal mines to 87% and that from intelligent mines to 75% by 2030. The plan also calls for an annual reserve of more than 100 million metric tons of production capacity and seeks to accelerate the closure of outdated mines through market-based and legal measures, while enforcing strict replacement requirements for new capacity.

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Energies

August 11, 2026

European Gas Extends Rally

European natural gas prices climbed to €61.5 per MWh on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s rally, as hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded amid demands from the US and Iran. President Trump on Monday called for Iran to compensate for people it has killed in conflicts, after Tehran sought compensation for damage caused by US and Israeli attacks. The standoff has reduced expectations of an immediate resolution that would restore LNG flows through the Persian Gulf. The ongoing disruption has tightened global LNG supplies, intensifying competition with Asian buyers and hampering Europe’s efforts to replenish gas stockpiles ahead of winter. European gas storage sites recently fell to their lowest seasonal levels in records going back to 2009, heightening concerns over winter supplies. Traders are also monitoring extended supply cuts at Norway’s Ormen Lange gas field, Europe’s largest pipeline supplier, as further disruptions could amplify price volatility.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Platinum Futures Near 2-Month High

Platinum futures rose around $1,780 an ounce, approaching an eight-week high and tracking a broader rally across the precious metals complex. Investment demand for precious metals improved as Chinese institutional investors increased bullion holdings amid heightened market volatility, with gold-backed ETF in China recording their longest streak of inflows in months. Meanwhile, AI and data-center expansion are emerging as potential new sources of future platinum-group metals (PGM) demand. In July, Valterra Platinum said it estimated current AI-related PGM demand at 200,000–400,000 ounces annually and that it could grow fivefold by 2030, citing PGMs' electrical and thermal properties as relevant to AI infrastructure. Still, the World Platinum Investment Council expects platinum markets to remain in deficit over the longer term due to constrained mine output, particularly in South Africa, although higher prices could encourage more recycling and eventually weigh on some demand.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Corn Futures Near 1-Month Low

Corn futures traded below $4.4 per bushel, struggling to rebound from a four-week low reached on August 5, as traders continued to assess crop conditions and weather forecasts ahead of the USDA's supply-and-demand report this week. Recent rain and milder temperatures eased crop stress after several weeks of excessive heat and dryness across much of the US Midwest during July, although 28% of US corn was affected by drought, according to the USDA. Elsewhere, Ukraine, a major corn producer, cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast by up to 12% from its previous projection, citing Russian attacks on the country's southern Odessa port hub. The disruption could result in an 11 million-ton grain storage shortfall, according to Ukraine's agriculture ministry, while APK-Inform also lowered its Ukraine grain export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million tons. However, both Ukraine and Russia are harvesting large crops that could add to already ample global supplies.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Copper Edges Higher on Supply Concerns

Copper futures climbed above $6.6 per pound on Tuesday, rising for a second straight session, supported by signs of tightening global supply and expectations for constrained mine output. Traders remained cautious over potential US import tariffs on copper, which have continued to redirect metal from international markets into US warehouses. The Democratic Republic of Congo also recently imposed an export ban on copper concentrate, although the move is unlikely to have a major impact on global supplies. Meanwhile, the long-term outlook for copper extraction and production is becoming increasingly constrained by declining ore grades, environmental regulations and geopolitical risks. On the demand side, copper continues to benefit from robust consumption driven by the global shift toward electrification and the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers.

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Markets

August 11, 2026

Palm Oil Extends Strength Despite Ample Supply

Malaysian palm oil futures pushed higher, hovering above MYR 4,740 per tonne and marking the strongest level in more than two weeks, as a softer ringgit boosted export competitiveness and firmer palm olein prices on the Dalian exchange also lent support. Export estimates reinforced the bullish tone, with cargo surveyors reporting Malaysian palm oil shipments increased between 2.6% and 14.8% in the first 10 days of August. Demand prospects in top consumer India also improved, with July edible oil imports climbing to a 10-month high as refiners stepped up palm oil and soyoil purchases ahead of the festive season. However, gains were capped by signs of abundant supply. Malaysia’s July inventories rose 3.32% month-on-month to 2.63 million tonnes, while production jumped 9.41% to 1.79 million tonnes. Meanwhile, in China, another key buyer, both consumer and producer price inflation eased in July, underscoring weak domestic demand that could limit further upside in palm oil.

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Denmark: Tax cuts keep inflation below the euro area – Nordea

Nordea economist Jan Størup Nielsen notes that Danish inflation eased slightly in July, with headline consumer prices up 1.7% year-over-year and core inflation steady at 2.3%. He highlights that seasonal factors such as higher rents on summer houses and package holidays boosted monthly prices, while lower electricity tariffs and falling food prices, especially pork, helped keep Danish inflation below the Euro area. Seasonal factors and tax cuts drive CPI "In July, Danish consumer prices increased by 1.7% year-over-year, down from 1.9% in June." "Compared to June, the overall Danish consumer price index increased by 1.2%. This was the largest monthly increase in the consumer price index since July last year." "Due to the government's decision to reduce the tariffs on electricity to the EU's minimum rate from the start of the year, electricity subtracted 0.68 percentage points from the annual inflation rate." "In July, overall inflation in the eurozone was 2.9%. Thus, inflation in the eurozone is still markedly above that of Denmark." "There are two reasons why inflation in Denmark is currently markedly lower than in the eurozone. The first and largest reason is the large reduction of the electricity tax in Denmark."

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Energies

August 10, 2026

Trade of The Day – OIL

Facts: The price has moved back above the EMA200 level. The EMA100 remains above the EMA200. RSI (14) is 52.4. The low from the last 5 sessions is higher (~11%) than the monthly low at around ~70 USD. Recommendation : Long position (buy) on OIL at the market price. Target price (Take Profit; TP): 95.5 USD Stop Loss (SL): 78 USD OIL (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION: A normalized RSI together with a forming uptrend (see: green circles) creates an opportunity to trade for higher oil prices. The bullish sentiment is further confirmed by the price returning above the EMA200. The target direction for buyers should be the upper boundary of the expanding ascending trend channel (orange). Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels. The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels. The protective stop loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and based on a Fibonacci level.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Cocoa Traders Balance Crop Risks and Supply Outlook

Cocoa prices eased to around $5,700 per tonne, leaving the market little changed for the year as traders continued to assess crop prospects and weather risks. Attention remained focused on the outlook for the 2026/27 season, with expectations of lower production potentially helping to rebalance the market following a substantial global surplus in 2025/26. Production forecasts for major growers Ivory Coast and Ghana have already been reduced, while adverse weather is adding to concerns over the next crop. In Ivory Coast, below-average rainfall, overcast conditions and a recent spell of colder weather have raised concerns about the development of the September-to-February main crop, according to farmers. Supply risks are also emerging elsewhere, with estimates suggesting that Ecuador, Peru and Southeast Asia could collectively produce around 100,000 tonnes less cocoa next season.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Sugar Climbs to 10-Month High

Sugar prices climbed above 16 cents per pound, the highest level in ten months, as concerns over the global supply outlook intensified. Brazil’s suspension of its biweekly harvest and production reports had already increased uncertainty among traders before the latest data released on August 6th showed June sugar output fell 15% year-on-year. Unseasonably heavy rains linked to El Niño disrupted cane harvesting and milling, reinforcing expectations of a global deficit in the 2026/27 season. Market participants are also monitoring Brazil’s sugar-ethanol mix, with nearly 58% of cane juice diverted to ethanol in June. The country raised its mandatory ethanol blend to 32% in late July from 30% a month earlier and 27% a year earlier, potentially reducing sugar availability. Meanwhile, India is considering limiting cane use for ethanol from October and bringing forward the crushing season to increase supply and contain record prices, as demand from the Indian festival season gathers pace.

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Recovery against US Dollar faces tariff risks – Commerzbank

Michael Pfister at Commerzbank highlights a strong Canadian labour market and improving Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and exports as signs of real-economy recovery, but warns this is fragile due to threatened US tariffs. Pfister expects a United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) extension to be agreed and remains optimistic that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) will appreciate over coming months, albeit with setbacks driven by US trade policy. Stronger data but trade tensions linger "In contrast to the US labour market, the Canadian labour market delivered a very positive surprise on Friday. While the median Bloomberg consensus forecast had predicted the creation of 20,000 new jobs, roughly 75,000 were actually created. In light of these figures, the unemployment rate also fell unexpectedly to 6.4%, its lowest level in two years, marking a decline of half a percentage point over the past three months." "It almost seems as if the Canadian real economy is slowly recovering from the problems in its relationship with the US. However, this recovery is on shaky ground. The US president has announced new tariffs of 50% on certain Canadian goods if no agreement is reached by August 19th." "We nevertheless continue to expect that an agreement on a one-year extension of USMCA will ultimately be reached. Although the US president regularly claims that only Canada would benefit from it, the two economies are too closely intertwined for a possible termination not causing major problems. But it is clear that any diversification by Canada away from its largest trading partner, the US, will be a lengthy process." "We remain optimistic that the Canadian dollar will finally start to appreciate again in the coming months, but it will likely be a long road, with setbacks caused by the US president along the way."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

US Dollar: Fed pricing shifts with softer data – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists note that Friday’s mixed United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report led to a notable repricing of September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) odds, with futures-implied probability of a hike falling to 44%. They see a broadly stable labour market and expect modest monthly gains in US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), alongside steady retail sales and softer University of Michigan (UoM) sentiment data. Fed odds ease after payrolls "This all follows last Friday’s US payrolls report certainly offering a mixed assessment of labour market conditions." "Our economists view the report as consistent with a broadly stable labour market rather than a sharp deterioration, noting that demographic factors continue to weigh on participation." "Following Friday's payrolls report, which was somewhat mixed but appeared more dovish than hawkish at face value, attention this week will be firmly on July US CPI (Wednesday), which could go a long way towards tipping the balance for September FOMC pricing." "Futures pricing fell by around 10 percentage points immediately after the release on Friday, leaving the implied probability at 44%." "On this big number, our economists expect headline CPI to rise by +0.15% mom after June’s -0.42% decline, while core CPI is forecast at +0.26% mom following an unchanged reading in June." "Attention will then turn to July PPI on Thursday. Our economists expect headline producer prices to rise by +0.22% mom, with core PPI at +0.3% mom." "Friday’s US data will offer the first major read on Q3 activity. Our economists expect retail sales to increase by +0.3% mom in July, while lower fuel prices may weigh on the headline figure relative to underlying spending measures. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is expected to ease to 52.5 in August from 55.2 previously."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Norwegian Krone: Rate hike odds slashed after soft inflation – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations. Norway’s underlying inflation (CPI-ATE) stayed at 2.7% year-on-year, below consensus and the Bank’s projection, prompting markets to sharply cut the probability of a rate hike, though Haddad still expects guidance for another increase to be retained. Softer core inflation hits hike expectations "NOK is mixed. Firmer crude is offsetting the drag to NOK from lower Norges Bank rate expectations." "Norway underlying inflation undershot expectations in July. CPI-ATE was unchanged at 2.7% y/y for a second straight month, below both the 2.9% consensus and the Norges Bank’s 3.3% projection." "Headline CPI was hotter at 3.0% y/y (consensus: 2.8%) vs. 2.7% in June but is still running below the Norges Bank’s 3.1% forecast." "Markets sharply pared back Norges Bank rate hike bets for Thursday’s policy decision to 6% from 25% before the CPI release." "Still, we anticipate the Norges Bank to retain its guidance for another hike “at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings” because inflation has remained above target for several years."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Copper: Weak China imports contrast with bullish positioning – ING

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that China’s latest trade data show continued weakness in copper imports, with unwrought volumes down 11.5% year-on-year and concentrate flows also softer. However, speculative sentiment in COMEX copper turned more supportive, with net long positions rising to their highest level since February 2021 on tight physical markets and low inventories. Weak imports yet stronger Copper positioning "In industrial metals, China's latest trade data showed continued weakness in copper imports. Unwrought copper imports fell 11.5% year-on-year to 424.6kt in July, leaving year-to-date volumes down 6.2%." "Copper concentrate imports also weakened, reflecting growing pressure from tighter mine supply. In contrast, iron ore imports rose 3.3% year-on-year to 108.1mt, although lower steel margins and maintenance activity continued to weigh on demand." "On the export side, shipments of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products increased 18.6% year-on-year to 640kt as producers capitalised on supply disruptions and trade dislocations linked to the Middle East conflict. Steel exports rose 2.9% year-on-year to 10.1mt." "Speculative sentiment remained supportive across metals. Money managers raised net long positions in COMEX copper by 11,306 lots to 77,796 lots, the highest since February 2021, as tight physical markets and low inventories supported prices."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

US Dollar: Higher hurdle for sustained gains – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that weaker US jobs data have not triggered a strong reaction in Dollar or rates, as markets await key Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases and another Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) before the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Halpenny highlights softer wage growth back to pre-Covid levels, reduced inflation pressures from the labour market, and the impact of recent hawkish FOMC communications on sustaining Dollar pricing. Dollar reacts cautiously to weak jobs "Friday’s negative NFP print is likely to influence FX sentiment in the early part of the week, at least through to the CPI release on Wednesday – the key macro release of the week." "That makes a lot of sense with the two CPI reports and another NFP report before the next FOMC meeting on 16th September meaning market participants were cautious about removing too much of the pricing for a hike at that meeting – the probability of a hike has still dropped from 55% to 40%." "Still, the YoY rate for average hourly earnings fell from 3.5% to 3.2%, confirming the full retracement back to pre-covid levels and certainly underlining the lack of inflationary pressures coming from the labour market." "Let’s see what the CPI data bring on Wednesday but another weaker than expected core CPI print (which would be the third month in a row) along with last week’s weaker jobs would certainly provide compelling ammunition for the doves on the FOMC although again we may not get a big market reaction this week either given the September data points lie ahead before the FOMC meeting."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Oil: Strait risk and cautious positioning – ING

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Oil prices remain supported by uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran negotiations continue. They highlight reduced net long positions in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent, even as US oil activity recovers and US crude exports stay elevated. Gas prices at Henry Hub also gain support from warmer weather and higher LNG feedgas flows. Strait risk supports Oil complex "Oil prices remain supported by uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. While US President Donald Trump said Washington is "semi-negotiating" with Iran, suggesting a focus on economic pressure rather than military escalation, significant hurdles remain before any broader agreement is reached. Reports indicate that Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement on a shipping route through Hormuz, though a full reopening of the waterway is still likely to depend on progress in US-Iran talks." "Speculative sentiment turned more cautious last week. Money managers cut net long positions in NYMEX WTI by 7,257 lots to 101,050 lots, while net longs in ICE Brent fell by 20,361 lots to 164,722 lots, marking a second consecutive weekly decline." "US oil activity has continued to recover, with Baker Hughes data showing that the oil rig count rose by three to 454, the highest level since May 2025. Meanwhile, US crude exports remain elevated as buyers seek alternative supply sources, although much of the recent increase has been supported by inventory drawdowns rather than stronger production growth." "In gas markets, Henry Hub extended gains for a second session, supported by forecasts for warmer weather, stronger power-sector demand and higher LNG feedgas flows. Additional support came from reports that new processing capacity at the Corpus Christi LNG terminal could boost feedgas demand by around 0.8bcf/d."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Japanese Yen: BoJ tightening risks support JPY – BNY

BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong highlights that long-end JGB yields are rising on inflation and fiscal concerns, with markets pricing a roughly 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end. The BoJ’s July MPM Summary of Opinions signals accommodative conditions but a tilt toward further tightening, with risks of larger hikes if action is delayed. BoJ debate shifts to overshoot risks "Long-end JGB pressure is building. Inflation risks and fiscal concerns have pushed long-end JGB yields toward the upper end of recent ranges." "Several members argued that the bank should keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting to assess the lagged impact of the previous hike, but the overall tone favors further tightening." "The debate has shifted away from lifting inflation to 2% and onto preventing an overshoot." "Members also warned that waiting too long could force faster, larger rate hikes later, risking a “double shock.”" "Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Euro: Modest upside bias against US Dollar as Fed repricing – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent EUR/USD strength, noting it was mainly driven by a softer Dollar after weak United States (US) labour data reduced Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations. Foley highlights resilient Eurozone data but also growth headwinds and limited appetite for strong Euro appreciation. Rabobank now expects EUR/USD to reach 1.16 in three months, assuming no major Eurozone growth surprises. Euro gains on softer US outlook "At the end of last month EUR/USD lurched higher. On Friday, the currency pair traded at its highest levels since June 17. This may give the illusion of a buoyant EUR." "The release of the surprisingly soft US July labour market report was the clear trigger for the move higher in EUR/USD on Friday. The softer data dealt a blow to expectations of Fed rate hikes which knocked US yields and the greenback lower." "Indeed, it is RaboResearch’s view that the Fed will hold rates steady this year, which suggests scope for further softness in the USD." "Given than another ECB rate hike is already in the price, a move is unlikely to provide much additional upside incentive for the EUR. We see scope for a modest upside bias in EUR/USD in the months ahead, mostly reflecting a reduction in Fed rate hike speculation and we have brought forward our forecast of a move to 1.16 from 6mths to 3mth." "That said, in the absence of upside growth surprises in Q3, we are doubtful that the market will be keen to rebuild substantial EUR long positions in the coming months."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA policy pause maintained – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, noting that policy is already restrictive and that Australian activity, particularly housing, is slowing in response to earlier hikes. They highlight that lower-than-expected Q2 trimmed mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) allows the RBA to pause in August, while also expecting only limited changes to inflation forecasts despite elevated Oil prices. RBA seen holding policy steady "The RBA is in pause and observe mode as 1) policy is viewed to be restrictive, 2) activity (especially housing) is slowing in response to earlier hikes, and 3) the full impact of earlier hikes is yet to be felt." "Lower-than-expected Q2 trimmed mean CPI gives the RBA space to pause at the August meeting, with OIS markets pricing close to 0% odds of a hike." "We also get new economic forecasts in the August Statement of Monetary Policy, but we doubt the RBA would downgrade its inflation forecasts sharply amid heightened inflation risks from elevated oil prices." "We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35% (consensus: 4.35%)."

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Gold and Silver Hold Near Multi-Week Highs

Silver Holds at 7-Week High Silver prices were above $63.5 per ounce on Monday, the highest in seven weeks, amid the view that the Federal Reserve is less likely to raise interest rates this year. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped in July as the labor force declined. Lesser bets of a rate hike were also supported by oil prices remaining well below their Iran war peaks this year, easing energy inflation. Expectations that financial conditions will not tighten significantly benefited precious metals by decreasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. In turn, industrial demand for silver also supported bids. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% annually in June to 219,000 tonnes. The data was in line with an expanding production for solar panels and electricity grids. Still, lingering risks of a flare-up in energy prices maintained silver relatively close to the seven-month low of $55 per ounce from July 16th. Gold Hovers at 2-Month High Gold prices held above $4,340 per ounce on Monday, near the highest in two months, as markets scaled back bets of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Signs of a softening labor market supported rate futures to reflect more positions of a hold rather than a hike in the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision in September. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July while wages slowed, although a lower unemployment rate indicated that the labor force is declining sharply. Lower energy prices also contributed to softer risks of higher rates for bullion holders. Lesser strikes against Iran by the US were consistent with Washington's rhetoric that a deal with Iran may be reached, driving energy costs do hold below recent peaks. Elsewhere, Chinese investors continued to increase long position on gold-backed assets for safety from volatility in tech stocks and recent signs of strength in the physical market. Gold buying was also seen by central banks, especially in Asia.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Intel’s $15 Billion Funding Gap: A Financial Warning Sign or an Investment in Growth?

$15 billion. That is how much Intel plans to raise through a new share offering. For any company, that would be an enormous amount, and in Intel’s case, it is difficult to overlook. Such a large issuance means dilution for existing shareholders and could put pressure on the stock price. However, it does not automatically mean that the company has a financing problem. The key question is why Intel needs so much capital and what it plans to use it for. Intel is in a situation where the scale of its planned investments exceeds its ability to finance them solely through current cash flows. That does not necessarily indicate weakness. It may simply be the price of trying to rebuild its technological and manufacturing position at a time when demand for semiconductors, particularly those linked to AI and data centers, is growing rapidly. The company is not using the capital to finance an ordinary factory modernization program. Intel wants to expand its own manufacturing capacity, invest in new technologies, and grow its foundry business. And this is where the most important question for investors arises. It is not simply about how much Intel is spending, but, above all, what it will get in return for those billions. The $15 billion raised from the market is an enormous amount, but given the scale of Intel’s current investments, it should not necessarily be viewed as capital needed for survival. It is capital needed to execute an ambitious growth strategy. That does not, of course, mean there is no risk. Shareholders are paying for this expansion through dilution, while Intel is taking on the risk that its massive investments will not translate into higher profitability quickly enough. In semiconductor manufacturing, building factories is not enough. Intel must also ramp production, achieve adequate yields, attract customers, and generate margins that provide an attractive return on capital. Intel is therefore part of a broader trend across the semiconductor industry. SK Hynix is investing tens of billions of dollars to increase memory production, Intel is investing in its own manufacturing capabilities and foundry business, and the entire industry is preparing for continued growth in demand driven by AI infrastructure. The AI revolution is generating enormous demand, but it also requires enormous investment. One of the biggest challenges facing companies in this sector is increasingly not finding customers, but financing the production capacity needed to meet growing demand. For that reason, Intel’s share issuance can be viewed more as a signal of the scale of its planned expansion than as a sign of financial distress. Short-term pressure on the stock price is a real risk, but from a long-term perspective, what matters far more is whether Intel can turn the capital it raises into new production capacity, customers, higher revenue, and growing cash flows. Intel needs to demonstrate that it can turn this $15 billion into significantly greater future cash flow. The share issuance itself does not create value for shareholders. Value will only be created when the invested capital begins to generate a sufficiently high return. Building semiconductor fabs is a long-term and extremely capital-intensive process. If demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure continues to grow, Intel could find itself in a very strong position. If, however, the AI investment cycle begins to slow, generating an attractive return on such enormous capital expenditures could prove much more difficult. Ultimately, the most important question is not why Intel is issuing shares, but whether those $15 billion will enable the company to build a business that, several years from now, generates significantly greater cash flows than it does today. If so, today’s dilution could prove to be the price Intel had to pay to rebuild its position. If not, the share issuance will remain, above all, a costly dilution for existing shareholders.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

The Week Ahead – Three Events to Watch

Key takeaways US inflation takes centre stage: July CPI could significantly influence expectations for a September Fed rate hike, particularly if inflation comes in hotter than expected. UK and Eurozone growth in focus: Q2 GDP figures will provide fresh insight into the strength of the UK and European economies and could influence future central bank rate decisions. Markets remain sensitive to global risks: USD/JPY intervention, Middle East tensions and rising oil prices could drive volatility, while the AI-led rally continues to support global equities. Key data releases that could move stocks, FX and commodities As we start a new week the market is still digesting the main events from recent days, including a weaker than expected payrolls reading for July, the unprecedented multi-lateral intervention to strengthen the yen, and the unresolved issues in the Middle East that pushed up energy prices on Friday. Non-Farm payrolls fell last month, and the US lost 23k jobs. This unexpected loss, combined with a downwardly revised figure for June, which was revised to just 20,000, suggests that the US labour market is softening more rapidly than analysts forecast. Healthcare posted an increase in jobs, but there were job losses In education, retail and financial services. This chimes with the ISM surveys, which reported a decline in the employment sub index of the service sector. The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, its lowest level since June 2025, and the labour force participation rate fell further last month, to its lowest level since 2021, at 61.4%. This structural shift in the US labour market could keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate, even if the US economy is not producing jobs. Low hire, low fire US economy There is a low hire, low fire environment in the US right now, and hiring has slowed sharply as we have moved through 2026. This weakens the case for a rate hike in the near term. The CME Fedwatch tool sees a 43% probability of a hike next month, down from 57% before the payrolls report. The market reaction was immediate, a sharp drop in the USD on a broad basis, and a decline in US Treasury yields. Stock indices rose, reversing some of Thursday’s losses for US stocks. Overall, the sharp drop in education employment could be seasonal, especially since it has been one of the strongest sectors for employment this year. However, it certainly adds to asset price volatility at the start of August. Unprecedented intervention to stem the yen weakness is too big to fail The intervention to stem yen weakness was also a key theme last week. Japanese and US authorities sold USD and euro to strengthen the yen, and it worked. USD/JPY fell more than 2% in the past 7 trading sessions. Usually when the US intervenes in the FX market it can mark a turning point in a currency pair. Although the yen is still stronger than it was before the intervention, it did drift lower over the course of last week, rising above the 200-day sma at one stage at 158.50. USD/JPY then fell back after the weaker payrolls report, but it remains above the intervention low around 155, above 157.50. If there is a move back towards 160.00 in the coming days then this could be a major issue for financial markets. If this intervention does not work at strengthening the yen, it could trigger volatility in global bond markets, as investors get worried that Japan will sell its stock of Treasuries to boost its FX reserves. This is one reason that is being discussed as to why the US made the unusual decision to spend its own FX reserves and prop up the yen last week. Middle East developments worth watching as Brent rises back above $80 per barrel The market is also going to watch developments in the Middle East. There was a breakthrough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which included Iran charging tolls to commercial cargo ships. The US has been tight lipped about this deal, and so far the President has sounded optimistic that the escalation in the conflict will end soon and talks are ongoing. There have been no new attacks, aside from Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia at the end of last week, which so far have not derailed the alleged talks to get back to the MoU and finally agree a long-lasting peace deal. The Brent crude oil price closed last week above $80 per barrel, even though there was no new direct attacks between Iran and the US. This suggests that the market is getting impatient at the lack of progress to find a deal, especially as we get closer to the autumn months in the northern hemisphere. AI trade roars back to life The increase in the oil price did not disrupt a major recovery rally for the AI trade. Chip stocks led the pack, and South Korea’s Kospi index rose more than 11%, followed by Japan’s Nikkei up 5.8%. US stocks outperformed their European counterparts; however, European banking stocks had another strong week and rose 3.58%. This backdrop will collide with some big macro releases next week; we delve into three can’t miss events in the coming days. 1. US CPI The market is expecting a small moderation in both headline and core US CPI for July. The headline rate is expected to come in at 3.4%; the core rate is expected to moderate a notch to 2.5%. The most notable thing about this data: both core and headline inflation remain above the Fed’s 2% target rate, something the new Fed governor has said is unacceptable. Inflation data is arguably more important than payrolls right now, because of the laser focus on the Fed’s 2% target. If we get a hotter than expected CPI report for July then we could see Fed rate hike expectations for September reverse course and march higher. The CPI report will also be crucial for USD/JPY. A hotter reading could keep downward pressure on the yen, and push USD/JPY back towards 160.00, which could put US and Japanese authorities in a difficult position. Alternatively, a reading of 2.3% or below in the core CPI rate for July could help USD/JPY drop back to 156.60, the intra-day low after Friday’s weaker than expected payrolls report. 2. UK GDP for Q2 This is released on Thursday and will be a good test of the UK’s economic strength ahead of the new chancellor’s Budget in October. The market expects quarterly growth to rise 0.4%, down from the 0.6% rate in Q1. The UK economy has a bias towards stronger first half growth, before weakening in the second half of the year, so the chancellor may not want to base his decisions for tax and spend on Q2 data alone. The June GDP print is expected to be disappointing, a reading of -0.1% is expected, suggesting that there was no ‘World Cup’ effect at the start of the football tournament. It will be worth seeing how the intense heatwave in June impacted growth, especially since the heat has not eased significantly since then. A lackluster economic backdrop has not thwarted UK stock indices from reaching fresh record highs in recent days. The FSTE 100 made an intra-day record on July 31st, while the FTSE 250 reached a new record high on August 6th. The FTSE 100 was one of the weaker indices last week, rising only 0.2%, but it is higher by more than 2% in the past month, and by 6% in the last 3 months, suggesting that an uninspiring economic backdrop is not impacting interest in UK shares. 3. Eurozone GDP for Q2 It’s a big week for growth data. The Eurozone’s second reading of Q2 GDP is released at the end of this week, and it is expected to confirm that the economy expanded by 0.4% last quarter, with the annual rate hitting 1%. This is a significant change from the 0.2% decline in Q1, and the fastest pace of growth for nearly 2 years. This would make another rate hike from the ECB extremely likely. There is already an 83% chance of a rate hike priced in for the ECB’s September meeting, with 2 rate hikes expected between September and July 2027. A strong reading for European GDP may see a third rate hike get priced in, and it could lend more support to the euro, which was the third best-performing currency in the G10 last week.

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Energies

August 10, 2026

TTF gas rises over 6% near 58 EUR

Natural gas prices in Europe are reacting with a strong increase to the ongoing impasse in the Strait of Hormuz European natural gas futures (TTF) are recording significant gains today, rising over 6% and reaching a level of nearly 58 EUR/MWh. Along with European gas prices, we are also observing an increase in gas prices in the US, which is linked to a change in weather outlooks. Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that the market in the United States is heavily oversupplied, while in Europe, problems with replenishing stocks persist. What specifically is behind the rise in gas prices in Europe? Do we have reasons for concern ahead of the winter period? Unresolved crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: Talks between Iran and Oman have failed to convince investors of a rapid resumption of global LNG supplies. Although the Iranian foreign minister stated over the weekend that an agreement is "very close," he simultaneously warned that it would not open the waterway immediately. Additionally, the agreement itself between Iran and Oman would mean the start of charging giant fees from passing ships, which is unacceptable to the United States and most carriers. Critically low gas stocks: With less than three months before the start of the heating season, European gas storage facilities are filled to just under 59%. These are the lowest levels since 2009, sitting drastically below the 5-year seasonal average for this time of year, which is 76%. This puts Europe in the face of fierce competition with Asia for LNG cargoes. Stock replenishment is already the slowest in over 5 years. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gas delivery to storage facilities in Europe is running significantly below the 5-year average, and the gas infrastructure maintenance season is about to begin, which will reduce the rate of stock replenishment. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Approaching heatwaves (surge in demand): A strong heatwave is expected in Western Europe (UK, France, western Germany) in the second half of the week. Temperatures are expected to reach 33°C in London and Frankfurt and even 35-36°C in Paris, which will significantly boost electricity demand for air conditioning. Additionally, high temperatures may cause difficulties in power plant operations in cases of low river water levels. Outages and infrastructural constraints: Additional outages are complicating the supply situation. Norwegian operator Gassco reported the unavailability of the Dvalin gas field (loss of 5.9 million cubic meters per day since August 10). Furthermore, French energy giant EDF was forced to sharply cut capacity at the Gravelines and St Alban nuclear reactors, which will force the burden of power production onto gas-fired power plants. The lack of prospects for a quick return of LNG supplies from the Middle East (Qatar planned to resume supplies to Europe in September, but this is already in question), combined with the dramatically slow pace of filling European storage (visible on the charts) and growing demand caused by heatwaves, creates an ideal environment for maintaining high prices or further increases in European benchmark TTF quotes. Although the gas market in Europe is significantly more diversified than 4 years ago, it cannot be ruled out that we will witness a clear increase before the start of the winter season. The curve in the European gas market remains flat in the short term and then shifts into strong backwardation. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

August 10, 2026

Chart of the Day: USD/JPY Recovers After Disappointing Payroll Data

The USD/JPY exchange rate quickly recouped most of the losses triggered by the weak US labour market report and is trading on Monday around 158.20–158.50, virtually where the pair stood prior to the data release. Friday’s payrolls figures showed a fall in employment of 23,000 against an expected increase of 80,000, triggering a sharp sell-off in the dollar and sending USD/JPY down from around 158.30 to approximately 156.70, before buyers quickly returned to the market. The market’s attention is now turning to Wednesday’s release of the US CPI for July, which will determine whether the Federal Reserve still has scope for a rate rise in September. What the daily chart shows The attached daily USD/JPY chart (D1 timeframe) shows a clear, well-defined uptrend that has been in place since February, with the price moving consistently along or above one standard deviation below the anchored VWAP since the start of 2026 (as the main support zone for the long-term uptrend). A key element of the chart pattern is the broad resistance zone around 159,000–160,000, marked on the chart as "Resistance area" – the same level which previously, from March to May, acted as a consolidation zone and repeatedly rejected price movements (and currently constitutes the main cluster of the value zone when looking at the volume profile marked since the start of the year), Friday’s long red candle with a long lower shadow was a reaction to the weak payrolls figures – there was a sharp fall from around 163,000–164,000 towards the resistance level, followed by a rebound that saw the week close near 158,500. The current price (158,496) sits right at the lower end of the resistance zone, just below the 159,000 level, suggesting that the market is testing whether the former resistance will now turn into new support. What’s next for the couple? The balance of risks remains uncertain, but for the time being it may appear to be tilted slightly towards gains as long as tensions surrounding the US–Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz persist, which is keeping bond yields higher (10-year US bonds are still around 4.655 per cent). At the same time, the risk of another joint US–Japan intervention is likely to cap gains around the 160 level, whilst a significantly weaker CPI reading could pave the way for a decline to the 155–156 range, where investors have previously been keen to buy on dips. Wednesday’s CPI reading for July (forecast at 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% previously) will be a key test for the pair’s future direction, as it will determine whether the market will continue to scale back expectations of a Fed rate rise in September and reverse the trend, or whether the current narrative will prevail.

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Recovery against US Dollar faces tariff risks – Commerzbank

Michael Pfister at Commerzbank highlights a strong Canadian labour market and improving Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and exports as signs of real-economy recovery, but warns this is fragile due to threatened US tariffs. Pfister expects a United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) extension to be agreed and remains optimistic that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) will appreciate over coming months, albeit with setbacks driven by US trade policy. Stronger data but trade tensions linger "In contrast to the US labour market, the Canadian labour market delivered a very positive surprise on Friday. While the median Bloomberg consensus forecast had predicted the creation of 20,000 new jobs, roughly 75,000 were actually created. In light of these figures, the unemployment rate also fell unexpectedly to 6.4%, its lowest level in two years, marking a decline of half a percentage point over the past three months." "It almost seems as if the Canadian real economy is slowly recovering from the problems in its relationship with the US. However, this recovery is on shaky ground. The US president has announced new tariffs of 50% on certain Canadian goods if no agreement is reached by August 19th." "We nevertheless continue to expect that an agreement on a one-year extension of USMCA will ultimately be reached. Although the US president regularly claims that only Canada would benefit from it, the two economies are too closely intertwined for a possible termination not causing major problems. But it is clear that any diversification by Canada away from its largest trading partner, the US, will be a lengthy process." "We remain optimistic that the Canadian dollar will finally start to appreciate again in the coming months, but it will likely be a long road, with setbacks caused by the US president along the way."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Brent: Iran talks keep risk premium in focus – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that negotiations between Iran and Oman over a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz remain finely balanced, with Tehran linking any lasting arrangement to broader demands on the US. Brent Oil has rebounded from midweek lows but still ended last week sharply lower, as markets priced partial de-escalation in Middle East tensions. Hormuz negotiations steer Oil risk "The appointment of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaee to head the Supreme National Security Council reinforces hard-line influence at the centre of decision-making, even as Iranian officials insist they are close to an agreement with Oman on a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz." "Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has described the talks as being in their final stages, but Tehran has stressed that any technical agreement on shipping routes would not by itself lead to a full reopening of the waterway." "Reuters and other major outlets report that Iran continues to tie any lasting Hormuz arrangement to wider demands on the US, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees." "Investors priced de-escalation in Middle East tensions as negotiations between Iran and Oman progressed, though some of that optimism then faded as details of a potential agreement on Thursday raised questions over whether the US would accept the deal and just how free-flowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be." "Brent crude rebounded from lows of around $78/bbl on Wednesday, it still finished the week down -7.29% to $83.55/bbl (+1.29% on Friday)."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance. He expects the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to keep rates at 6.50%, sees the first cut only in January 2027, and anticipates limited EUR/RON moves near 5.25 despite some scope for a short-term Romanian Leu (RON) rally. Stable rating, delayed easing outlook "Moody’s kept Romania’s rating at Baa3 with a negative outlook, following Fitch’s unchanged decision a week earlier. This should offer some relief after ROMGBs sold off by around 15bp at the long end last week, even as the rest of the region rallied." "Today, the National Bank of Romania is expected to keep rates unchanged at 6.50%, and we see little reason for a shift in tone versus previous meetings, with our forecast still pointing to the first rate cut only in January 2027." "EUR/RON remains anchored just below 5.25, and we expect limited movement given the NBR’s lack of room to tolerate additional inflation pressure. However, relief over the unchanged rating could support a RON rally today as buyers and carry trades return to the market."

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Gold bulls seem hesitant near $4,350 as Iran risks and Fed hike bets support USD

Gold attracts some dip-buyers at the start ofa new week, though it lacks follow-through. . Oil prices fuel inflation fears and keep Fed hike bets on the table, undermining the bullion. Mideast tensions support the safe-haven USD and contribute to capping the precious metal. Gold (XAU/USD) climbs above $4,350, hitting a fresh high during the first half of the European session on Monday, though it remains below the highest level since June 17, set on Friday in reaction to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In fact, the crucial US monthly employment data showed that the economy unexpectedly lost 23K jobs in July, while the previous month's reading was also revised down to 20K from 57K. This pointed to signs of a cooling US labor market and undermined the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD) and provided a goodish lift to the non-yielding bullion. The immediate market reaction, however, turned out to be short-lived as uncertainties surrounding the Middle East crisis and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz offered some support to the safe-haven Greenback. In fact, Iran reiterated conditions for a full reopening of the critical waterway, including an end to the US naval blockade, the removal of sanctions and compensation for war damage. Moreover, Tehran has ruled out direct talks with the US, citing alleged violations of the interim peace agreement reached in June. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and underpins the USD, capping gains for gold. Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices. Investors remain worried that rising energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance. Furthermore, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favors USD bulls and backs the case for the emergence of fresh selling around gold. Traders now look to the release of the latest US inflation figures this week. According to TD Securities, “the risk of a hike lingers,” but the bank argues that upcoming inflation data could shift market pricing meaningfully. The team expects “core and headline CPI this week (0.20% m/m and 0.15% m/m, respectively)” and contends that such outcomes “would likely lead to further pricing out of hikes.” With “the majority of the recent move higher in rates driven by Fed expectations,” TD Securities adds that “rates could move lower as hikes are priced out.” XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis: Gold holds above 38.2% Fibo. as bulls await 100-SMA breakout The XAU/USD pair keeps a broadly capped tone below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $4,390 and the 200-day SMA near $4,496. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in a bullish but not yet overbought region around 64. Moreover, the commodity has reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June downfall at about $4,303.27, though the cluster of higher retracement levels and longer-term averages overhead still suggests rallies are vulnerable. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near $4,390, followed by the 50% retracement around $4,414. A daily close above these would expose the 200-day SMA at approximately $4,496 and the 61.8% retracement near $4,525, with further barriers at the 78.6% level around $4,683 and the recent cycle high close to $4,884. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement near $4,303, ahead of the 23.6% level around $4,166, while a deeper setback toward the anchor zone near $3,944.21 cannot be ruled out if sellers regain control.

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Energies

August 10, 2026

WTI comes off from day’s high as investors seeks clarity on Hormuz reopening

The Oil price retreats from the day’s high to near $77.55, but is still holding significant intraday gains. Iran wants war compensation and the withdrawal of the US naval blockade as key demands for Hormuz reopening. Iran-backed Houthis continue to attack Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, gives back some of its early gains, but it still 1.6% higher at around $77.55 during the European trading session on Monday. The oil price retreats from its day’s high as fears of a prolonged global energy supply disruption have escalated. Renewed uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, with Iran setting out new conditions before the United States (US), has boosted oil prices. Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran demands reparations to Iran for the war by the United States (US) before allowing navigation through the Hormuz, West Asia News Agency reported. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the council, set six conditions include an end to US threats against Iran and insults to what Zolghadr described as the country’s national and religious values; a permanent end to attacks against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq; the lifting of the US naval blockade and withdrawal of US naval and air forces from around Iran; compensation for damage from what he called two “imposed wars”; the lifting of sanctions; and the unconditional release of frozen Iranian assets, Al Jazeera reported. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions between Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia are also impacting the global energy supply chain. Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, said they targeted an Aramco refinery in the city of Jazan with a drone, The Guardian reported.

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention faces persistent rate gap – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management reviews recent coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities to support the Japanese Yen, recalling the sharp carry-trade unwind during the previous episode two years ago. The report argues that, despite near-term support and short positioning risks, persistent US inflation and cautious Bank of Japan tightening leave rate differentials weighing on the currency’s medium-term outlook. FX action versus rate differentials "Two years ago, global markets were jolted by a surge in the Japanese yen – triggered by authorities intervening to support the currency in FX markets, plus a surprise shift in policy rate expectations. This caused a sharp unwind of the yen “carry trade” – where traders borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding overseas assets – and it sparked widespread volatility." "Recently, Japan’s authorities stepped in again to support the yen – this time in coordination with the US – sending a strong market signal. But the backdrop today looks less supportive of a sustained yen recovery than it did in 2024. Despite firmer inflation, the Bank of Japan has been cautious about signalling a faster tightening path." "By contrast, persistent US inflation and more hawkish Fed signalling have pushed expectations towards higher US rates." "FX intervention can boost the currency in the near term. And a significant net short positioning of the yen implies risks of a sudden appreciation. But for the time being, rate differentials fundamentally weigh on the currency’s outlook."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

US Dollar: Softer labour data shifts Fed outlook – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux reports that weaker US employment data and downward revisions have sharply reduced expectations for a September Fed hike, though one move remains priced for December. He notes the Dollar has extended losses as markets reassess the Fed’s dual mandate and the implications for bonds and FX. DXY is seen needing to defend its 200-DMA at 99.18 to avoid a deeper decline. Labour softness pressures Fed expectations "The dollar carries over losses from Friday and the 2s/10s UST curve maintains bull steepening bias (45bp) after the shock decrease in US July employment and negative downward revisions blew the rate increase in September out of the water." "One hike remains on the table though for December but the sudden softening of the labour market invites a revaluation of the tactical outlook and throws open the wider the debate about the Fed’s dual mandate." "After months of obsessing about above target CPI and PCE inflation, and levelling accusations of being behind the curve, the employment situation put the Fed outlook in a different daylight and raises questions for the direction of the bond and FX markets in 2H." "The pricing for a hike in September has been whittled back to less than 50% vs 72% at the end of July." "The DXY must now defend the 200dma

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Swedish Krona: Hormuz reopening could lift SEK against NOK – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyses NOK/SEK through oil-price sensitivity and rate expectations. He finds the Norwegian Krone reacts more strongly to oil than the Swedish Krona, while Riksbank expectations adjust more to oil shocks than Norges Bank. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens sustainably, he expects SEK to appreciate significantly against NOK as oil falls and rate hikes are priced out. Hormuz scenario favours Swedish Krona "This relationship between oil prices, interest rate expectations and currency performance is likely to be reflected the most in one currency pair: Since the start of the war, the Swedish krona has lost significant ground, while the Norwegian krone has been the top performer among the G10 currencies. Does this mean that if an agreement is reached, the Swedish krona will appreciate and the Norwegian krone will depreciate?" "The data clearly show that an increase in oil prices was accompanied by Swedish krona depreciation, while the opposite was true for the Norwegian krone. But the relationship was significantly more positive for the Norwegian krone than negative for the Swedish krona. The former is likely obvious, while the latter stems from Sweden’s relatively low dependence on energy imports: the difference between energy imports and exports as a percentage of total exports is -1.8% (by comparison, Norway's figure is 57%)." "This means that the Norwegian krone is more affected by falling oil prices than the Swedish krona is affected by rising oil prices. At this point, however, a second factor comes into play. Interest rate expectations for the central banks of both countries have essentially followed the pattern I demonstrated last week." "Both currencies are likely to be affected as interest rate hike expectations are priced out, though the Swedish krona will probably be impacted slightly more. In other words: If the Strait of Hormuz opens sustainably, the Norwegian krone will be affected by falling oil prices and the pricing out of interest rate hike expectations. The effect on the Swedish krona is more balanced; however, falling oil prices are likely to offset the correction in interest rate expectations resulting in a slight SEK appreciation." "In short, should an agreement be reached, the Swedish krona is likely to appreciate significantly against the Norwegian krone."

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Banks

August 10, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA set to hold amid inflation risks – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu and David Tam expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at 4.35%, noting that markets doubt its willingness to hike despite persistent inflation and robust labor and spending data. They flag housing weakness, lack of terms-of-trade support and poor productivity as structural drags, arguing that a policy hold aligns with a cautious, ‘do no harm’ approach. Stagflation tests central bank resolve "The RBA is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.35%, but there remains some degree of uncertainty over the inflation path." "However, the market is clearly losing confidence on the RBA’s ability to hike as stagflation continues to pressure the economy." "Sentiment indicators, however, point in a different direction: the housing market, characterized by a domestic bank as “broad-based weakening,” is a drag on demand due to wealth concentration." "Weak productivity remains a challenge, with even the S&

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Energies

August 10, 2026

UK Natural Gas Prices Advance

UK natural gas prices rose above 140 pence per therm on Monday, recovering part of the losses from the previous week amid uncertainty over the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman remained short of a final agreement over the weekend after Tehran renewed a lengthy list of demands for Washington as conditions for a full reopening of the strategic waterway, indicating any immediate relief for gas supplies could remain limited. Although Iran indicated that a deal was close, it cautioned that this did not mean the strait would reopen imminently, while again ruling out any direct negotiations with the US. With a deal still elusive, disruptions to LNG shipments through the key waterway are likely to persist, delaying cargoes from major exporters such as Qatar. The ongoing delays have kept global supply balances tight, intensifying competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes and hampering Europe's winter stockpiling efforts.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Iron Ore Slips as Global Shipments Rise

Iron ore futures declined to around CNY 711 per ton, resuming their downward trend after data showed global shipments jumped 14.18% to 156.6 million metric tons in July, with Australia and Brazil accounting for much of the increase. Brazil is also entering its peak export season this quarter, while Australian shipments are expected to gradually rebound after a relatively weak start to the new fiscal year. Meanwhile, China imported 108.086 million tons of iron ore and concentrates in July, down 4.09% from June but 3.5% higher than a year earlier. Data released over the weekend also showed consumer and producer inflation in top consumer China slowed in July, pointing to persistently weak domestic demand. Elsewhere, traders monitored an expanding strike at BHP’s Port Hedland export operations in Western Australia, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Palm Oil Rises on Export Strength, Firmer Edible Oils

Malaysian palm oil futures were notably higher, trading near MYR 4,720 per tonne and snapping recent losses, as firmer edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago supported sentiment. Strong export demand added momentum, with a monthly report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showing July shipments up 14.5% from June to 1.39 million tonnes. Demand prospects in top buyer India also improved, as edible oil imports hit a 10-month high in July, with refiners stocking up on palm oil and soyoil ahead of the festive season. However, a stronger ringgit capped the gain. Meantime, Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose 3.32% mom to 2.63 million tonnes in July, while production grew 9.41% to 1.79 million tonnes, highlighting ample near-term supply. In China, a key palm oil consumer, both CPI and PPI inflation eased in July, underscoring persistently weak domestic demand. Traders now await export estimates for August 1-10 from cargo surveyors after July shipments rose 12.1%-19.5% from June.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Copper Pulls Back from Record Highs

Copper futures slipped below $6.6 per pound on Monday, retreating from record levels reached last week as traders took profits while weighing signs of tightening global supply. Concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper concentrate export ban also eased, with Goldman Sachs saying it expected the measure to have no significant impact on global copper balances. However, traders remained cautious over possible US import tariffs on copper, which continued to redirect metal from international markets into US warehouses. On the demand front, data released over the weekend showed both consumer and producer inflation in top consumer China slowed in July, pointing to persistently weak domestic demand. Data on Friday also showed China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products dropped 11.5% year on year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while imports for January-July fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes.

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Forex Trading

August 10, 2026

Dollar Index advances above 99.50 due to Middle East risks

US Dollar gains on strong safe-haven demand amid uncertainty around the Hormuz reopening. July's surprise 23,000 US payroll drop and past revision signal a cooling labor market, dampening Fed rate expectations. CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 46% chance of a September rate hike, down from 67%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after registering modest losses in the previous day and trading around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The Greenback receives support from broad risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions remaining high as the ongoing United States (US)-Iran conflict enters a critical diplomatic phase, with intense military engagements and strategic pressure surrounding the Strait of Hormuz driving market caution. Although Iranian officials noted on Sunday that Oman-mediated negotiations regarding the management of the strait are making progress, safe-haven demand for the Greenback remains firmly intact. Weaker-than-expected US employment data has dampened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) unexpectedly dropped by 23,000 in July, while sharp downward revisions to 20,000 from the previous 57,000 in June highlighted weakening labor market conditions. CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets now see around a 46% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, down from 67% a week earlier. Investors are now focused on upcoming inflation reports for further clues on monetary policy. Markets bull steepen as Fed hike expectations are pared back According to TD Securities, the rates market "bull steepened on the negative headline print despite a drop in the UE rate to 4.1%." The softer data "eased concerns over a reaccelerating labor market," prompting investors to "price out hikes," with the bank noting that "September's pricing [declined] by 3bp to 12bp of hikes." Barkin flags weak labour balance despite solid corporate earnings Fed's Barkin delivered a slightly softer tone, with a 5.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score coming in below the 5.8/10 historical average, underscoring a modestly more cautious stance. The emphasis on job data being “very consistent with a sector in weak balance” and characterized by “low hire, low fire” highlights a labour market that is stagnant rather than collapsing, tempering any aggressive policy bias. At the same time, Barkin’s focus on “quite strong” and growing corporate earnings, and the explicit watch for linkages to the job market, signals that resilient profits could limit how dovish policy can become if labour softness does not spill over more broadly. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.68 points to 137.01, indicating a pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, despite a softer tone in the latest remarks captured by the FXS Speechtracker, overall Fed communication is still anchored in hawkish territory, with markets expecting policy to stay relatively restrictive. US Dollar Index, FXS Fed Sentiment Index: Daily Chart

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Markets

August 10, 2026

XAU/USD retreats from June 17 highest amid USD uptick; holds above $4,300 pivotal support

Gold kicks off the new week on a softer note as Mideast tensions benefit the safe-haven USD. Oil prices fuel inflation fears and keep Fed hike bets on the table, also undermining the bullion. Traders look forward to this week’s US inflation figures for more Fed cues and a fresh impetus. Gold (XAU/USD) drifts lower at the start of a new week and moves away from its highest level since June 17, touched on Friday following the disappointing release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In fact, the crucial US monthly employment data showed that the economy unexpectedly lost 23K jobs in July, while the previous month's reading was also revised down to 20K from 57K. This pointed to signs of a cooling US labor market and undermined the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD) and provided a goodish lift to the non-yielding bullion. The immediate market reaction, however, turned out to be short-lived as uncertainties surrounding the Middle East crisis and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz offered some support to the safe-haven Greenback. In fact, Iran reiterated conditions for a full reopening of the critical waterway, including an end to the US naval blockade, the removal of sanctions and compensation for war damage. Moreover, Tehran has ruled out direct talks with the US, citing alleged violations of the interim peace agreement reached in June. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and underpins the USD, exerting some pressure on gold. Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices. Investors remain worried that rising energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance. Furthermore, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favors USD bulls and backs the case for a further depreciating move for gold. Traders, however, might opt to wait for the latest US inflation figures this week. XAU/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Technical Analysis: Friday's breakout through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall favors XAU/USD bulls. The said support is pegged just above the $4,300 mark, which, if broken, could prompt some technical selling and pave the way for a further depreciating move. Moreover, Gold remains below the 50% Fibo. level and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent move up witnessed over the past week or so.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

XAG/USD starts US CPI week on flat note around $63.50

Silver price trades flat at the start of the US CPI data week. Traders trim hawkish Fed bets due to soft US NFP data. Fed officials signaled in the July meeting that they are committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target. Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $63.50 during the Asian trading session at the start of the week. The white metal struggles for direction but is close to an almost seven-week high of $65.16 posted on Friday. Bullions are expected to face heightened volatility, with the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July on the radar, releasing on Wednesday. The impact of the US CPI data will likely be significant on the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, as comments in the July monetary policy statement signaled that officials are heavily concerned about high inflation and are committed to bringing price pressures down to the 2% target. Higher US inflationary pressures prompt Fed interest rate hike risks, a scenario that bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver. On Friday, the Silver price gained sharply as traders scaled back hawkish Fed bets for the September policy meeting after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which showed a reduction in the overall labor force. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising policy rates in the September meeting are 46%, a sharp decline from 67% seen a week ago. The US NFP report showed employers fired 23K workers, while they were anticipated to create 80K fresh jobs. Also, June’s NFP print was revised lower to 20K from 57K. Silver Technical Analysis XAG/USD trades at around $63.50, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot silver holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $60.14. The pair has rebounded sharply from recent lows, and holds above this key dynamic barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.28 suggests improving but not yet overbought momentum. On the topside, initial resistance is last week's high at $65.16; a break above that level would open the way for further upside towards $70.00. Looking down, the 20-day EMA at $60.14 is the key support level. The Silver price could return to its lowest low at $54.77 in the Year-To-Date (YTD) if it fails to hold the dynamic barrier.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Wheat Futures Rise as Supply Concerns Persist

Wheat prices rose to around $6.40 per bushel, remaining above a four-week low reached on August 6, as concerns over tightening global supplies outweighed improved crop prospects in Australia. Grain exports from the Black Sea region have been disrupted by intensified attacks on port infrastructure linked to the Russia–Ukraine war, while severe heatwaves across the US, Canada, and Europe have heightened concerns over crop yields and quality. In France, extreme temperatures are expected to reduce wheat production, while Canadian wheat acreage has declined from a year earlier. Meanwhile, timely rainfall across key growing regions in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria has boosted yield expectations, prompting Rabobank to raise its production forecast to as much as 30 million tons. Bendigo Bank Agribusiness has also upgraded its outlook to around 30 million tons, with output potentially reaching 33 million tons.

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Energies

August 10, 2026

European Gas Rises Amid Uncertainty Over Hormuz

European natural gas prices rose above €56 per MWh on Monday, recouping part of the losses from the previous week amid uncertainty over the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman remained short of a final agreement over the weekend after Tehran renewed a lengthy list of demands for Washington as conditions for a full reopening of the strategic waterway, indicating any immediate relief for gas supplies could remain limited. Although Iran indicated that a deal was close, it cautioned that this did not mean the strait would reopen imminently, while again ruling out any direct negotiations with the US. With a deal still elusive, disruptions to LNG shipments through the key waterway are likely to persist, delaying cargoes from major exporters such as Qatar. The ongoing delays have kept global supply balances tight, intensifying competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes and hampering Europe's winter stockpiling efforts.

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Energies

August 10, 2026

Heating Oil Rises for Fourth Session

US heating oil futures rose to around $3.96 per gallon on Monday, gaining for a fourth consecutive session, driven by uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said a deal with Oman to establish new shipping lanes was nearing completion but stressed that the waterway would only reopen if Washington met additional conditions. Tehran also said it was not engaged in direct negotiations with the US and would not initiate talks while Washington continues to breach an interim deal signed in June, despite US claims that an agreement is near. Supply concerns were further heightened after Iran-aligned Houthis said they attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have stepped up attacks on each other, raising the risk of further strikes on energy facilities after Ukraine recently carried out a long-range drone attack on a major Russian oil refinery. Against this backdrop, Moscow extended its gasoline and diesel export ban through January 2027.

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Energies

August 10, 2026

Gasoline Gains for Third Session

US gasoline futures rose above $3 per gallon on Monday, gaining for a third consecutive session, as uncertainty persisted over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said an agreement with Oman on new shipping routes was close to being finalized but warned that reopening the waterway remained conditional on Washington meeting additional demands. Tehran also ruled out direct talks with the US for now, saying it would not engage while Washington continues to violate an interim agreement reached in June, despite US assertions that a deal is close. Oil supply risks were further underscored by claims from Iran-aligned Houthis that they had struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery. Elsewhere, escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine have increased the threat of further strikes on energy facilities, following Ukraine’s recent long-range drone attack on a major Russian refinery. Moscow has since extended its ban on gasoline and diesel exports through January 2027.

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Markets

August 10, 2026

Soybeans Hold Near Multi-Week Lows

Soybean futures held around $11.5 per bushel, staying near five-week lows as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA’s upcoming crop report this week. The report will include the first survey-based estimate of 2026 US soybean yields and updated harvested acreage, potentially reshaping expectations for crop size and supplies. Meanwhile, weather has become less supportive, as warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Midwest raised concerns over soybean pod filling during August, adding uncertainty around US yields. While the USDA recently confirmed a private sale of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, the purchase did little to offset the bearish supply outlook. Traders now continued to monitor developments in the Black Sea region, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatened grain export routes, although expectations for another large harvest from the region continued to weigh on prices.

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Markets

August 8, 2026

Three Markets Set to Move Next Week

Last week brought a clear improvement in sentiment across financial markets. The publication of weaker US labor market data (NFP) reduced the pressure on the Fed regarding interest rate hikes. Additionally, there were signs of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although uncertainty remains a key issue for energy market investors. This week, the markets' attention will shift to the July inflation readings from the US, retail sales data, and the publication of key commodity reports. Therefore, investors should primarily pay attention to instruments such as the US500 (S&P 500 futures), GOLD, and OIL (Brent Crude). US500 (S&P 500 futures) The US S&P 500 index ended the previous week near record highs. The ultimate test for the sustainability of this breakout will be Wednesday's US CPI inflation report for July. Price pressures are expected to ease further. Core inflation is projected to drop to 2.4% YoY (the lowest level since March 2021), and the headline reading is expected to come in at 3.3%-3.4% YoY. On Thursday, we will see the PPI index, and on Friday, retail sales data (an expected drop of 0.5% MoM) as well as SEC 13F filings revealing fund positions. Confirmation of the disinflationary trend, coupled with an absence of a hard landing for the economy, will create room for the continuation of the bull market on Wall Street. GOLD Gold prices recorded a strong rebound last week on the back of falling US Treasury yields and a weakening dollar. This week, the main drivers of volatility for the precious metal will be the CPI and PPI inflation reports, as well as Thursday's speeches by Fed members (including Tom Barkin and Beth Hammack). A drop in core CPI inflation to around 2.4% YoY will lower real interest rates, which, from an intermarket analysis perspective, favors the prospects of further gold price increases and an attempt to break through resistance levels. A potential hawkish tone from Fed officials remains a threat. Although gold has stopped reacting nervously to rising oil prices, any news from the Middle East could have immense significance for the precious metal's quotes. OIL (Brent Crude) Crude oil enters the new week with elevated volatility, awaiting further developments in the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait regions. From a macroeconomic fundamentals perspective, the market is analyzing the latest PPI and CPI inflation data from China, which point to persistently weak demand in the Asian economy. On Wednesday, the monthly IEA and OPEC reports will be published. They will reveal the latest supply and demand balance forecasts for the upcoming quarters and show whether the fuel market is actually as tight as the difference between the price of crude oil and refined products suggests. If the agencies reduce their consumption estimates for the commodity, the oil market may find itself under renewed downward pressure.

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Earnings

August 8, 2026

Earnings Watch: Who Could Surprise Markets Next Week?

The Q2 2026 earnings season is already nearing its end, but there is still a number of interesting companies that are only now reporting. Many of them are mid cap companies where the outlook, both positive and negative, remains uncertain. Understanding their specifics can help position properly ahead of earnings and draw better conclusions from the releases. Lumentum The company is one of the key beneficiaries of the explosion in demand for computing power. Lumentum is a leader in one of the most interesting industries, one that is only just spreading its wings and may become one of the foundations of the next expansion of the technology sector. This is photonics. The company is regularly undervalued by the market. Across the last 8 earnings calls, it beat market expectations in all 8, and 6 of those were followed by a rise in the share price. The growth rate is accelerating and profits are rising exponentially. This suggests that markets are not only underestimating the company’s earnings, but as the current earnings trend continues, the misses could become larger. The current quarter points in that direction. Equally important, if not more important, profit is growing faster than revenue, which indicates high efficiency and significant operating leverage. The US government and the Department of Commerce are reportedly working on a ban on imports of optical switches from China to prevent dependence on Chinese components. While the work on the proposal is still at an early stage, the impact on results, even if not large, could already be visible. To genuinely beat market expectations, the company must maintain the pace of expansion in both margin and revenue. The market currently expects around USD 1 billion in revenue and EPS of about USD 3, with a gross margin of at least 35%. A real surprise appears only above the USD 1.02 to 1.05 billion level, with EPS around USD 3.1 to 3.2 and a gross margin no lower than 36%. Coherent Coherent is also a photonics focused company and will benefit from many of the same supportive factors as Lumentum, but there are differences. Coherent does not yet have as strong a position. The fundamentals are good, but expectations are not yet as relatively high as they are for Lumentum. The biggest contribution to profitability expansion is the product mix. This means not only a broader shift toward the data center segment, but also a focus on specific products where the company’s margins are best. This matters because while growth in the data center segment is about 40%, growth in industrial is in the low single digits. The key for the market reaction will be maintaining revenue growth dynamics above 20% year over year, while keeping gross margin above 40%. At the same time, beating USD 1.5 in EPS and presenting optimistic guidance from management will be important. Without that, the reaction to the results may be muted. The biggest risk is overly aggressive expansion of production capacity. Expanding too quickly or too expensively could scare investors due to CAPEX putting pressure on free cash flow. Brinker International Brinker is a group that owns a number of iconic US brands such as Chipotle and Chili’s. Previous quarters were fairly positive in terms of results, but in part that growth came off a relatively low base. Today the base is already fairly high and expectations are greater. Market and analyst expectations do not account for the asymmetry of risk, which is currently clearly to the disadvantage of buyers. Results from retailers and other budget chains such as McDonald’s, as well as macroeconomic data, have shown that lower income consumers are under pressure, while wealthier consumers are concentrating around businesses better tailored to them. The market will expect an increase in restaurant visits, and that may not be possible. Chipotle is particularly sensitive to gasoline, beef, and labor costs, while having fewer tools and less ability to manage them. Consensus expects roughly USD 10 to 11 EPS, and in the current environment such a result will be very difficult to achieve. International chains can manage margin, labor, and logistics on a global level, which gives them significant flexibility. Smaller groups focused on the US do not have that ability. Cardinal Health The healthcare sector has had a strong period in terms of valuations, but that has made the growth the market now expects from these companies less rational. In a way, the company has set the bar high itself by publishing guidance of USD 10.7 to 10.8 EPS for the full year. However, Cardinal Health is a unique example where profitability is not everything, because the scale of growth also matters. In the previous quarter, the stock fell after earnings despite strong EPS because it disappointed on revenue. This is due to the Global Medical segment performing very poorly, with profit down more than 30%. The company’s overall results depend on performance in the specialty pharmaceuticals segment. Conditions in that segment are currently excellent, as confirmed by analyst reports, for example on McKesson, but that may not be enough to lift the shares of the entire group. Good results are already in the price. The mentioned USD 10.8 EPS is the starting point, not the goal. The market expects revenue growth, margin expansion in growth segments, and maintaining margins where the market is shrinking. In addition, optimistic guidance for the next year will be necessary for a fully positive reception of the results.

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Markets

August 8, 2026

The Week That Was: NFP Sends Dollar Tumbling as Gold Stages a Comeback

USA The market is temporarily looking away from earnings season and the Strait of Hormuz, focusing instead on macroeconomic data. A major downside surprise in the NFP reading has significantly changed market expectations for Fed policy. Expectations for a Fed rate hike by year-end are now hovering around 30%. Major US indices are reacting with moderate gains in the 0.5% to 1% range. The Persian Gulf is in a brief phase of de-escalation. Iran and Oman are preparing to begin talks on an agreement intended to create corridors for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Given Iran’s stance, indicating an intention to charge fees and refusing to include the US in the talks, the chances of success remain low, even if the sides have temporarily stopped exchanging fire. Many signals from the Arabian Peninsula suggest Saudi Arabia may opt for a significant escalation, including a ground invasion in Yemen, to neutralize the threat from the Houthis. Company news, USA OpenAI: The company behind ChatGPT announced the existence of a model called “Astra.” Details are scarce, but everything suggests it is meant as a response to Anthropic’s “Mythos.” Atlassian Corp: Reported phenomenal growth in Q2 2026. The stock is up more than 30% at the US market open. The company clearly beat expectations across all categories, with accounts receivable growth around 40% standing out. Cloudflare: Revenue and profit expectations were beaten by around 5%, but management guidance was the focus. On the back of demand for cloud solutions, year-end revenue is expected to exceed USD 2.86 billion. Shares are up about 15%. Airbnb: The short-term rental platform operator posted Q2 2026 results showing 17% revenue growth, significantly above expectations. Shares are up about 8%. Hertz: The car rental company is continuing its rally on the back of Q2 results. According to some analysts, the World Cup proved to be a turning point and the company managed to deliver EPS nearly twice as strong as the market expected. Macroeconomic data, USA NFP came in at minus 23k versus expectations around 80k. None of the major investment banks or research centers published an accurate forecast. More and more questions are being raised about data quality and the true state of the US labor market. Negative revisions to previous months’ data do not improve the outlook.Average hourly earnings growth also slowed. On a monthly basis, the pace fell to 0.1% versus the expected 0.3%.The unemployment rate also declined, from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, this is a result of lower labor force participation. Average hourly earnings growth also slowed. On a monthly basis, the pace fell to 0.1% versus the expected 0.3%. The unemployment rate also declined, from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, this is a result of lower labor force participation. Thomas Barkin from the New York Fed held a conference today where he shared comments on AI and the labor market. He noted that AI’s impact on productivity remains unclear, and that the best measure of labor market conditions is the unemployment rate. Europe Falling expectations for Fed hikes are also supporting European indices. The leader is Germany’s DAX, with futures up about 0.5%. Moderate declines, limited to 0.5%, are seen in Poland’s WIG20 and Spain’s IBEX. Company news, Europe Genmab A/S: The Danish biotech company is up about 10% and raised its guidance after strong results. Its success is supporting valuations of other sector names, including Novo Nordisk, Abivas, and Zealand Pharma. Kingspan: The insulation manufacturer is up 15% after a significant increase in full-year profit guidance. The company is expected to benefit from improving data center efficiency. Daimler: The truck manufacturer is down about 3% after results. Improved profitability in the US was not enough to offset an overall decline in orders. Macroeconomic data, Europe German data surprised to the upside, showing industrial production growth higher than expected. The release showed 0.2% m/m instead of 0.1%. This is a slowdown versus the previous month’s 0.7% rise. Germany’s trade balance fell more than expected, showing a surplus of EUR 15 billion instead of EUR 17 billion. French unemployment in Q2 2026 rose to 8.3% (previously 8.1%). Forex The FX market is completely dominated today by a sharp decline in the dollar. The more dovish Fed monetary policy now expected by the market is putting strong pressure on the US currency.The yen and the Swiss franc are up 0.6% versus the USD. The euro and the pound are up about 0.3% to 0.4% versus the USD. The yen and the Swiss franc are up 0.6% versus the USD. The euro and the pound are up about 0.3% to 0.4% versus the USD. Commodities Sugar is up more than 5%. This reflects forecasts of a supply deficit, driven by weather, but also by increased ethanol production for the fuel market. Oil prices are not reacting to further headlines from the Middle East, but the sell-off in European gas is deepening by 4%, reaching EUR 55. The shift in market expectations for Fed policy is supporting gold and silver, up 2.2% and about 3%, respectively. Crypto Sentiment in the crypto market is mixed, with a tilt toward pessimism. Larger coins are clearly performing better.Bitcoin is up 0.3%, holding the USD 64,500 level.Solana is up about 0.7% and moves back above USD 73.Ethereum is also up 0.3% and returns above USD 1,900. Bitcoin is up 0.3%, holding the USD 64,500 level. Solana is up about 0.7% and moves back above USD 73. Ethereum is also up 0.3% and returns above USD 1,900.

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Markets

August 8, 2026

Forecasting the upcoming week: U.S. inflation takes center stage next week

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100.00 region after sinking through Friday's session. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed the US economy shedding 23K jobs against forecasts of an 80K gain, with June revised down to 20K, and Average Hourly Earnings slowing to 3.2% on the year. Markets that had spent late July pricing a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) reversed course in the morning. This coming Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI), projected at 3.4% YoY headline and 2.5% YoY on the core measure, now decides whether that repricing extends or stalls. Two Fed speakers follow on Thursday, with Hammack and Barkin both scheduled. long the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The second full week of August will test whether the US Dollar sell-off that followed July's payrolls collapse has further to run as investors turn from the labor market to prices. The spotlight falls on Wednesday's CPI report, with Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey filling out the week. On the other side of the pond, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, and the United Kingdom (UK) publishes second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. China opens proceedings on Sunday with inflation figures that will shape the tone for commodity-linked currencies. The EUR/USD pair ends the week above the 1.1550 region, near two-month peaks. The Eurozone calendar is heavy on confirmations rather than surprises: German and Italian final inflation figures land on Wednesday, followed by Spanish and French readings later in the week, while Thursday brings Eurozone Industrial Production. The main event is Friday's preliminary second-quarter GDP, expected at 0.4% on the quarter and 1% on the year, alongside the first read on Employment Change. With the European Central Bank (ECB) content to wait, the pair remains a Dollar story. GBP/USD is trading near 1.3500 as it closes the week, testing the resistance level for the second time this month. The UK finally has something of its own to trade on. Thursday delivers second-quarter GDP, forecast to slow to 0.4% from 0.6%, with monthly GDP seen contracting 0.1% and Manufacturing Production expected to fall. A soft set of numbers would complicate the Bank of England's position and give Cable its first domestic drag in weeks. USD/JPY ends the week beneath the 158.00 barrier after the Yen jumped on the US NFP miss, with traders still alert to intervention a week on from the joint Tokyo-Washington operation. Japan's calendar is thin with June Current Account figures on Sunday the only notable release. That leaves the pair hostage to US data and to the question of whether authorities return. AUD/USD trades below the 0.7100 level, its best in two months as the Aussie has gained strength. The RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday and is universally expected to hold at 4.35%, shifting attention to the accompanying statement and Governor Bullock's speech on Thursday. Chinese CPI and PPI on Sunday matter as much: consumer prices are seen slowing to 0.8% annually and factory-gate inflation to 3.8%, and softer readings would revive the growth concerns that have capped the Aussie all year. Gold ends the week above $4,300 after its strongest run since January. The metal has been carried by collapsing rate-hike expectations, which makes Wednesday's CPI the single most important release on its calendar. A soft print would confirm the move. A firm one would force a reassessment, particularly with Strait of Hormuz risk keeping

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Markets

August 8, 2026

XAG/USD clears 50-day SMA, eyes $65

XAG/USD jumps nearly 3%, reclaiming 50-day SMA and $63.00. RSI crosses above neutral, strengthening the near-term bullish bias. Break above $65.00 exposes $68.98 and $70.00 next. Silver price surges nearly 3% as it clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62.13, and reclaims the $63.00 figure as it struggles to surpass key resistance seen at $63.28, the July 6 high. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook Silver trades sideways, but bulls are gaining traction, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI crossed above its 50-neutral level, poised to hit the overbought 70 level, rather sooner than later.  This suggests that the white metal could test higher prices, once it crosses the $65.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day SMA at $68.98, before testing the psychological $70.00 mark. Once cleared, the 200-day SMA becomes the next ceiling level at $71.22. If XAG/USD retreats below the $63.00, a retracement towards the 50-day SMA is on the cards. On further weakness, Silver could fall towards the $60.00 mark, followed by the August 3 low of $56.57. XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver daily chart

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Banks

August 8, 2026

Indonesia: Modest growth outlook – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra notes Indonesia’s Q2 GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year, slowing from 5.6% but beating consensus. Stronger-than-expected H1 data leads the bank to raise its 2026 GDP forecast to 5.3%. However, a weak recovery in formal-sector employment and cautious private-sector investment suggest growth will remain modest, with government programmes and household consumption offsetting subdued external demand. Growth beats but headwinds persist "Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed to 5.3% y/y in Q2 from 5.6% in Q1 but beat market expectations of 5.1%. While a slowdown was expected as one-off factors such as Eid spending and the harvest season faded, Q2 GDP still expanded faster than in 2025." "We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.2% given stronger-than-expected H1 growth. We maintain our view that growth will remain modest, averaging 5.2% in H2, amid a weak recovery in formal-sector employment and still-cautious private-sector investment." "Despite ongoing job creation – the unemployment rate fell to 4.65% in May from 4.74% in November 2025 – formal-sector jobs, which typically offer better income security, fell to 40.7% of total employment from 42.3% over the same period." "We believe government priority programmes (including free meals, village cooperatives, social spending and infrastructure) and still-relatively healthy household consumption will support near-term growth." "This should help to offset subdued external demand and still-cautious private-sector activity."

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Banks

August 8, 2026

China: Credit demand and liquidity trends – DBS

DBS Group Research anticipates China’s credit demand to stay weak in July, with new Yuan loans around RMB 10.8 billion and M2 growth at 8% year-on-year. Corporate and household medium- to long-term lending are likely to soften amid cautious borrowing and mortgage prepayments. Elevated precautionary savings and subdued property prices are expected to constrain investment and consumption. Weak lending and elevated savings "Credit demand remains weak, with new yuan loan is expected to stay at RMB10.8bn in July." "Both corporate and household medium- to long-term lending likely softened amid cautious borrowing sentiment and continued mortgage prepayments." "M2 growth is expected to remain at 8.0% yoy." "Precautionary savings stayed elevated, while weak property prices continued to weigh on household wealth." "The wide gap between M2 and M1 growth is expected to persist, reflecting subdued corporate investment and household consumption."

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Banks

August 8, 2026

Chinese Yuan: Range trade holds with bullish tone against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to a narrow intraday range, with flat momentum suggesting consolidation between 6.7450 and 6.7550. Their 1–3 week view still anticipates the Dollar edging lower toward 6.7300 while 6.7640 caps the upside, and over 1–3 months a sustained recovery requires a break above the 21-week EMA at 6.8430. Dollar seen consolidating in tight band "24-HOUR VIEW: Following Wednesday’s price movements, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Despite the quiet price action, the underlying tone appears to be soft, and there is a chance for USD to test 6.7420. However, a continued decline below this level still appears unlikely. On the upside, resistance is at 6.7550.” USD subsequently traded in a quiet manner between 6.7457 and 6.7518, closing unchanged at 6.7483. Flat momentum indicators suggest range-trading today, most likely between 6.7450 and 6.7550." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: In our most recent narrative from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 6.7490), we highlighted that “while USD edged lower last week, there has been no clear increase in downward momentum.” However, we were of the view that USD “could continue to edge lower toward 6.7300 as long as 6.7640 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” Although USD has not been able to make further headway on the downside, we will continue to hold the same view for now."

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Banks

August 8, 2026

Singapore: GDP revision and forecast upgrade – DBS

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP to be revised up to 5.9% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, driven by stronger manufacturing and services. With first-half growth above trend, the team sees a high chance the government will raise its 2026 GDP forecast to 4.0–5.0%, while still highlighting significant uncertainty and downside risks. Growth beats trend, forecast upgrade in sight "We expect Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP print to be revised up to 5.9% yoy and 1.3% qoq sa, from the advance estimates of 5.7% yoy and 1.1% qoq sa." "The modestly higher growth figures were driven by a firmer manufacturing outturn than initially reported, alongside a possible upward revision to services growth amid stronger expansion in trade-related services, as indicated by the robust pickup in re-exports in June." "With 1H26 growth tracking well above trend, we see a high likelihood that the government will upgrade its official 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.0-5.0% from 2.0-4.0%, even as it continues to flag high uncertainty and downside risks to the outlook."

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Banks

August 8, 2026

Philippines: BSP policy outlook shifts – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at the 27 August meeting, abandoning a previously projected hike. The bank trims its 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 3.5% and lowers Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations, while still projecting rate cuts in 2027 once inflation falls below 4%. BSP rhetoric is expected to stay hawkish. BSP seen on hold but still hawkish "We now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at its 27 August meeting, versus our previous forecast of a 25bps hike." "We maintain our view of 25bps of rate cuts in Q2-2027 and Q3-2027 once inflation moderates to below 4% in Q2-2027." "Consequently, we lower our end-2026 and end-2027 policy rate forecasts to 4.75% (5% prior) and 4.25% (4.5% prior), respectively." "We lower our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% (4.0% prior) on softer-than-expected growth in H1." "We also revise down our 2026 CPI inflation forecast to 5.9% (6.5% prior) on lower-than-expected inflation to date."

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Banks

August 8, 2026

Indonesian Rupiah: Supportive domestic backdrop, capped gains – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s FX analysts, including Charlie Lay and Moses Lim, note that USD/IDR slipped slightly but stayed below the key 18,000 level as softer global Oil prices and stronger Indonesia Q2 GDP supported the Rupiah. They highlight that clearer Bank Indonesia leadership and confidence in BI’s independence should aid IDR over the coming weeks, though several structural and geopolitical risks may limit further appreciation. Rupiah supported but upside constrained "Q2 GDP rose more than expected by 5.3% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 5.1%) vs 5.6% in Q1. Growth was supported by resilient domestic demand, particularly stronger investment activity, while household consumption and government spending remained firm. In H1, the economy expanded 5.5%, slightly below the government's full-year target range of 5.6-6.0%." "On inflation, July CPI surprised to the downside, rising 2.9% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 3.2%) vs 3.3% in June. This was the softest reading in three months and moved closer to the midpoint of BI's 1.5-3.5% target range." "Separately, local media reported that President Prabowo is preparing to submit a shortlist of candidates to replace Perry Warjiyo as BI Governor. Acting Governor Destry Damayanti is widely viewed as the frontrunner. She is also regarded by markets as the candidate most likely to preserve policy continuity. Parliament is expected to review the nominations after returning from recess on 14 August. The approval process is expected to take one to two weeks." "In FX, USD/IDR dipped 0.1% to 17,918 yesterday but remained below the key 18,000 psychological level. The pair closed at its lowest level since 23 July, supported by softer global crude oil prices and improved sentiment following the strong Q2 GDP print." "Greater clarity regarding the next BI Governor appointment, alongside restored confidence in the BI's independence, should support IDR in the coming weeks. However, gains may be capped by several headwinds, including the risk of an MSCI downgrade to frontier market status, concerns that the fiscal deficit could breach the statutory 3% of GDP ceiling, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty."

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Geopolitics

August 8, 2026

Week Ahead – Aug 10th

Negotiations between Iran, the US, and GCC states on access to the Strait of Hormuz will continue to set energy prices and interest rate outlooks for the global economy. In the meantime, updates on the AI trade, which is undergoing heightened volatility, will feature earnings from Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave. The US will publish consumer inflation data as both the FOMC and financial markets are split on the Fed's rate decision next month. The US will also post the PPI, retail sales, and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. In Europe, the UK and Switzerland will post Q2 GDP figures, while the Eurozone will publish industrial production data. In Asia, Chinese monetary aggregates will be in focus, while Taiwan's GDP will unveil concrete figures on global chip production. Also, China and India will post inflation rates. For G10 monetary policy, rate decisions are due in Australia and Norway, while the BoJ will post July's Summary of Opinions.

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Markets

August 8, 2026

European Stocks Close at Records

European stocks closed higher on Friday, tracking similar developments in major equity markets amid a rebound for industrial and tech stocks. The Euro STOXX 50 added 0.4% to 6,530 and the STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.4% to 661. Software producers and AI-related infrastructure manufacturers rose for a second session, tracking US counterparts with SAP gaining 4.1%, while Infineon and Siemens rose nearly 3% each. Meanwhile, Sanofi and Argenx each gained 1.3% to close a strong weak for the European pharmaceutical sector. On the other hand, Allianz fell 1.6% despite generating a record profit on both its insurance and asset management business in the second quarter. Likewise, Munich Re dropped 1.5% despite reporting higher profits in the period.

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Energies

August 8, 2026

Nat-Gas Prices Supported by Stronger US LNG Exports

September Nymex natural gas (NGU26) closed up +0.022 (+0.83%) on Friday. Nat-gas prices settled higher on Friday as stronger US nat-gas exports draw domestic supplies down. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 18.6 bcf/day, the most in 4 weeks. Forecasts for warmer US weather are also supportive of nat-gas prices, as hotter temperatures could boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power an expected increase in air conditioning use.  The Commodity Weather Group said on Friday that forecasts shifted warmer, with above-average temperatures expected across the Northeast and western US through August 12. On Thursday, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 3.25-month nearest-futures low on a larger-than-expected storage build that pushed nat-gas inventories +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, a sign of robust supplies.  Nat-gas prices also have some negative carryover from Tuesday when Energy Transfer announced that the Hugh Brinson pipeline will be able to operate at its full transportation capacity of 1.5 bcf/day by September 1, allowing more gas supplies to flow from the Permian Basin to the US benchmark Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, boosting US domestic supplies.  A bearish factor for nat-gas prices in the medium term is speculation that a powerful El Niño weather system will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing nat-gas heating demand.  US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 112.3 bcf/day (+2.3% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 82.7 bcf/day (+6.1% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 18.6 bcf/day (+4.3% w/w), according to BNEF. Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices.  On July 7, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 111.2 bcf/day from a June estimate of 111.0 bcf/day. As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported on Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 1 rose +0.9% y/y to 100,254 GWh (gigawatt hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending August 1 rose +2.1% y/y to 4,350,538 GWh. Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 31 rose by +33 bcf, above expectations of +30 bcf and above the 5-year weekly average increase of +23 bcf.  As of July 31, nat-gas inventories were down -0.4% y/y, and +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  As of August 4, gas storage in Europe was 58% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 74% full for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended August 7 fell by -3 to 124 rigs, modestly below the 3-year high of 134 rigs set in February 2026.

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Energies

August 8, 2026

Uncertainty Over Reopening of Strait of Hormuz Lifts Crude Prices

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) closed up +0.89 (+1.15%) on Friday, and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0468 (+1.59%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled higher on Friday, supported by a decline in the dollar ($DXY) to a 7-week low.  Also, uncertainty regarding a proposed plan by Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is boosting crude prices. The oil market is monitoring progress toward a deal between Iran and Oman to partially restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A joint statement from the two countries is under review, and the route would remain active for two to four months, though the agreement does not mean a full reopening, according to Iranian officials. Iran said that a normalization of the strait will depend on the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports. Gains in crude oil are limited after President Trump said negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are "moving along."  However, the Wall Street Journal reported that Arab negotiators are concerned that Iran's diplomats may not be able to guarantee compliance with any agreement reached, as Iran's lead negotiators are under pressure from hardline officials to eke out more explicit references to Iran's role in the strait and clearer benefits.  On Thursday, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that vessels belonging to the US, Israel, or any other nation that has "caused damage" to Iran would be prohibited from the Strait of Hormuz under the proposed deal with Oman to reopen the waterway, which would restrict some oil exports from several Gulf States.  Crude prices also have support on concerns about oil supplies from the Middle East after Yemen's Houthi rebels said they targeted a Saudi oil tanker with a ballistic missile on Thursday in the Gulf of Aden.  The Houthis said they will escalate attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea to prevent them from transiting the area.  Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.  Ukraine has attacked Russian refineries, oil tankers, and major pipeline infrastructure at least 30 times in July, the second highest monthly number of attacks since the war began in 2022.  According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine.  As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities.  The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.  Russia is the world's number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa.  Robust crude supplies in China may reduce Chinese crude purchases in the near term, a bearish factor for oil prices.  China's crude inventories remain abundant, with supplies falling by only 54 million bbl since early May to around 1.2 billion bbl, according to data from Kpler. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports remains above 4 million bpd in the period to July 26 and rose to 4.13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.  Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country's refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine's drone and missile attacks. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates on Sunday approved their final increase of +188,000 bpd in crude production for September.  The group has now restored all of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to hold output steady for the rest of the year after the September hike.  The production increases by OPEC+ might prove difficult to achieve amid renewed US-Iran military attacks in the region.  OPEC's July crude production rose by +1.16 million bpd to 19.44 million bpd.  Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +4.6% w/w to 112164 million bbl in the week ended July 31. Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 31 were -6.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -11.7% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending July 31 rose +0.1% w/w at 13.804 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended August 7 rose by +3 to a 14-month high of 454 rigs.

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Markets

August 8, 2026

Cattle Closed Mostly Higher on Friday

Live cattle futures posted Friday gains of 35 to 50 cents in the front months, with August down a nickel this week. Cash trade has picked up this week at $235 live and $370 dressed (North) across the country. Feeder cattle futures were $2.95 to $3.65 higher on the day, with August up $3.625. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.43 on August 6 to $357.36.   The Friday Commitment of Traders report showed managed money trimming back another 456 contracts from their net long in live cattle futures and options to 66,067 contracts as of Tuesday. In feeder cattle futures and options spec funds were adding 1,182 contracts to the net long as of 8/4 to 8,605 contracts. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the Friday afternoon report. Choice boxes were up 50 cents at $364.36 with Select $2.59 higher to $352.37. The Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $11.99. USDA’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter for this week was estimated at 509,000 head. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week and 27,811 head below the same week last year. Aug 26 Live Cattle  closed at $231.700, up $0.475, Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $225.275, up $0.350, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $224.150, down $0.225, Aug 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $351.650, up $3.600, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $345.225, up $3.650, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $334.925, up $2.975,

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Softs

August 8, 2026

Wheat Held Higher Levels on Friday

Corn futures closed with contracts steady to fractionally higher at the close. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was unchanged at $4.09 1/2. USDA reported a private export sale of 286,097 MT of corn to Mexico, with 29,808 MT for 2026/27 and 256,289 for 2027/28 Ahead of the August Crop Production report from NASS next Wednesday, a Reuters survey of analysts shows expected yield at 182.4 bushels per acre, with a range of 180.5 to 184.8 bpa. Production is estimated at 15.934 bbu, as harvested acres are expected to be trimmed by 76,000 acres.  CFTC data released on Friday afternoon showed managed money adding just 13,547 contracts to their net long in corn futures and options in the week of 8/4. The net long was at 181,946 contracts as of Tuesday. Export Sales data from USDA updated on Thursday showed old crop corn commitments at 87.09 MMT, 23% ahead of the same period last year. With a month left in the reporting period for 2025/26 they are 103% of the USDA forecasts and ahead of the pace from each of the last three years. New crop accumulated sales are now 9.65 MMT, which lags the same pace from last year by 18.1%. That is still the 4th largest forward book for this week on record.  Sep 26 Corn  closed at $4.39, unch, Nearby Cash  was $4.09 1/2, unch, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $4.62, unch, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $4.77 3/4, up 1/4 cent

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Markets

August 8, 2026

Corn Held Steady on Friday

Corn futures closed with contracts steady to fractionally higher at the close. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was unchanged at $4.09 1/2. USDA reported a private export sale of 286,097 MT of corn to Mexico, with 29,808 MT for 2026/27 and 256,289 for 2027/28 Ahead of the August Crop Production report from NASS next Wednesday, a Reuters survey of analysts shows expected yield at 182.4 bushels per acre, with a range of 180.5 to 184.8 bpa. Production is estimated at 15.934 bbu, as harvested acres are expected to be trimmed by 76,000 acres.  CFTC data released on Friday afternoon showed managed money adding just 13,547 contracts to their net long in corn futures and options in the week of 8/4. The net long was at 181,946 contracts as of Tuesday. Export Sales data from USDA updated on Thursday showed old crop corn commitments at 87.09 MMT, 23% ahead of the same period last year. With a month left in the reporting period for 2025/26 they are 103% of the USDA forecasts and ahead of the pace from each of the last three years. New crop accumulated sales are now 9.65 MMT, which lags the same pace from last year by 18.1%. That is still the 4th largest forward book for this week on record.  Sep 26 Corn  closed at $4.39, unch, Nearby Cash  was $4.09 1/2, unch, Dec 26 Corn  closed at $4.62, unch, Mar 27 Corn  closed at $4.77 3/4, up 1/4 cent, New Crop Cash  was $4.12, unch,

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Markets

August 8, 2026

Soybeans Slip into Friday’s Close

Soybeans were mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, with August down 11 ¾ cents on the week. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean  rice was up a penny at $11.33 ¾. Soymeal futures were down $2.60, with August down $6 on the week. Bean oil was up 40 to 50 points, with bean oil up 98 cents on the week. A private export sale of 238,000 MT of soybeans was reported to China this morning for 2026/27. Wire reports suggested Chinese buyers purchased 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Thursday.  Commitment of Traders data from Friday afternoon showed spec traders cutting back 29,535 contracts from their net long position in soybean futures and options in the week ending on August 4. The net long was 125,466 contracts by Tuesday.  A Reuters survey of traders shows expectations for NASS to peg US soybean yield at 52.9 bpa next Wednesday. Harvested acres are seen 163,000 acres higher than in the June report at 84.564 million acres, with production seen at 4.472 bbu. USDA released their weekly Export Sales report on Thursday with the total accumulated sales (shipped and unshipped) at 41.715 MMT, down 19 from last year. That is still 101% of the USDA export forecast and lags the 103% pace from a year ago. New crop sales are at 8.373 MMT, not including the daily announcements from this week, which is a 4 year high and 133.9% above the same week last year.  Soybean exports out of Brazil in July totaled 13.4 MMT according to trade ministry data, which was a 9.33% increase from last year but down 7.58% from a year ago. August exports are expected to total 9.74 MMT according to ANEC, which would be 1.63 MMT from the same period last year.  China’s soybean imports totaled 11.48 MMT in July, a 1.6% decrease from the same month last year. Sinograin, a Chinese stockpiler, will auction off 516,000 MT of imported soybeans on August 12. Aug 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.56 1/2, down 3/4 cent, Nearby Cash  was $11.33 3/4, up 1 cents, Sep 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.59, down 1 cent, Nov 26 Soybeans  closed at $11.76 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents, New Crop Cash  was $11.17 1/1, down 1 1/4 cents,

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Markets

August 8, 2026

Arabica Coffee Surges on Dollar Weakness and Tight ICE Inventories

September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up +13.90 (+4.32%) on Friday, and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed down -11 (-0.29%). Coffee prices settled mixed on Friday, with arabica up sharply at a 1-week high.  Friday’s decline in the dollar index ($DXY) to a 7-week low is bullish for coffee prices. Also, arabica coffee supplies continue to tighten as ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low on Friday.  Arabica has support due to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest.  The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 67.3% complete as of July 31, behind the year-earlier pace of 74.2%.  On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%.  Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.5-month high of 4,261 lots on Friday.  By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 244,172 bags on Friday. On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that no rain fell in the week ended August 2 in Brazil’s Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-coffee growing region. The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On Sunday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

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August 8, 2026

Cocoa Prices Erase Early Losses on Dollar Weakness

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up +6 (+0.10%) on Friday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed up +4 (+0.09%). Cocoa prices recovered from early losses on Friday and posted modest gains as the decline in the dollar index ($DXY) to a 7-week low prompted short covering in cocoa futures.  Cocoa prices initially moved lower on Friday amid signs of larger cocoa supplies from Ghana. Ghana’s cocoa board reported on Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Rising cocoa inventories are also negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,384,965 bags on Wednesday. On Wednesday, cocoa prices rose to 3-week highs on positive carryover from last Friday, amid concerns over future cocoa production in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.  Last Friday, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  Cocoa prices dropped to 1-month lows last Tuesday on signs of larger global cocoa supplies amid suspect demand.  Monday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Also, Bloomberg reported on July 16 that Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT.  Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y. On the positive side, StoneX last Wednesday cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Cocoa prices have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  However, a senior manager at Expana said on July 23 that the most recent surveys show a substantial improvement in cocoa pod counts compared with the early surveys.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  The outlook for a smaller global cocoa surplus is supportive of cocoa prices.  On July 23, Transgraph Consulting forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa prices also have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  The outlook for smaller cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, supports prices.  Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. 

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August 8, 2026

Sugar Prices Soar on Global Production Worries

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.88 (+5.65%) on Friday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +16.50 (+3.39%). Sugar prices extended this week’s sharp rally on Friday, with NY sugar posting a 10-month nearest-futures high and London sugar posting an 11-month high.  Concerns over lower global sugar production are propelling prices sharply higher.  Due to drought and hot weather in Europe, sugar production in the European Union and the UK is set to decline to 14.98 MMT this year, the lowest level in 11 years, according to data from S&P Global Energy.  Lower sugar output in Brazil is also bullish for sugar prices after Unica reported on Thursday that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT. Brazil is the largest sugar-producing country in the world. Since posting a 5-month low last Thursday, sugar prices have surged on the outlook for tighter future sugar supplies.  On Monday, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus. Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Wednesday raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT, and StoneX last Tuesday raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT. Concerns over India’s sugar crop are supporting prices.  Last Friday, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the second-largest sugar-producing country in the world.  Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  India’s weather office recently lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season to 90% of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April.  Last Thursday, NY sugar matched a 5-month low amid the prospects of higher Indian sugar output as monsoon rains had improved.  India’s Meteorological Department reported on Friday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 11% below normal as of August 7, a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30.  As a bullish factor, sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts that global sugar production will fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, and that there will be a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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August 8, 2026

Cotton Rallies into the Weekend

Cotton futures saw gains of 120 to 130 points on Friday with December up 261 points on the week. Crude oil was up 21 cents per barrel, with the US dollar index $0.308 lower. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 9,869 contracts to their net long in the week ending on Tuesday to 62,279 contracts. Export Sales data updated on Thursday showed old crop cotton commitments at 11.976 million RB as we rounded out the marketing year. That was 1% above the same period last year and 102% of the USDA forecasted export total. New crop business is at 3.12 million RB, wich is 43.33% ahead of the same pace from last year.  The Seam reported 72 bales sold on the 8/6 sale, with an average price of 67.75 cents. The Cotlook A Index was up 50 points on August 6 to 93.50 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks were steady on Wednesday, with the certified stocks level at 84,632 bales. The Adjusted World Price was raised by 163 points on Thursday to 66.29 cents/lb.  Oct 26 Cotton  closed at 83.22, up 126 points, Dec 26 Cotton  closed at 84.4, up 124 points, Mar 27 Cotton  closed at 86.18, up 129 points

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August 7, 2026

Gold gains almost 3% trying to reverse the trend

Gold is posting strong gains today, with falling U.S. Treasury yields following a much weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report providing a significant boost to sentiment across the precious metals market. Friday's session is delivering another strong bullish impulse for gold prices. GOLD chart (D1 timeframe) Gold climbed to around $4,350 per ounce today, where it is testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200, red line). From a technical perspective, this is a key resistance level that is often viewed as the line separating a long-term bullish trend from a bearish one. If gold closes today's session above the EMA200, it would mark the first daily close above this indicator since June 4. The metal has already rebounded more than 10% from its recent local low, although it still trades roughly 20% below its all-time high of $5,600 per ounce. The next major resistance levels are located around $4,700 and the psychological $5,000 per ounce mark. On the downside, the $4,100 area remains an important support zone, having recently served as the starting point for the latest strong upward move. Source: xStation5

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August 7, 2026

Equities: AI profitability doubts grow – Nordea

Nordea analysts Kirsti Sunde Midttun and Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen argue that AI profitability faces structural pressure from high inference costs, rapid model depreciation and growing competition from free and open alternatives. They question the durability of current business models and point to rising investor scepticism toward AI-related equities, alongside a rotation from technology stocks into cyclical, defensive and value-oriented sectors. Nordea questions AI margin durability "With the AI buildout now driving a meaningful share of US growth, we examine the sustainability of the underlying business models and whether the recent market scepticism is warranted." "Despite AI's rapid growth, we see several challenges to profitability and present a more sceptical view of the industry's prospects." "The net effect is that inference costs remain the central economic challenge for AI developers, and a key reason why the leading model companies are, for now, not profitable." "Frontier models are, in short, best understood as infrastructure with an unusually short useful life: the value must be extracted before the technology is obsolete." "Publishing capable models free of charge suppresses willingness to pay across the market and undercuts the business models of developers who charge for access." "Taken together, the picture is this: frontier models are expensive to build, they depreciate within months, and they face growing competition not just from each other but from free, open alternatives." "Over the summer, we have also seen some scepticism towards AI-related equities. This has led to a notable rotation out of tech stocks and into cyclical, defensive, and value-oriented sectors."

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August 7, 2026

Silver: Solar demand headwinds emerge – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that the Silver price has surged over 10% this week to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June, pulling the gold/silver ratio back below 70. However, he highlights that solar-sector demand is set to decline for a second year, with Silver’s share in solar modules and total demand expected to fall despite still-elevated prices. Solar sector drag on silver demand "Prices for silver, platinum and palladium also rose sharply in the wake of gold. Since the start of the week, the silver price has risen by more than 10% to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June. As a result, the gold/silver ratio has fallen below 70 again." "The tailwind for the silver price from the solar industry could be slowing down. BNEF estimates that 19% less silver will be used in the production of solar modules this year than last year." "This would mark the second consecutive decline. The solar industry’s share of total silver demand is therefore expected to fall to 14%, down from 18% last year. BNEF’s assessment largely aligns with that of the Silver Institute in April, which also anticipates a significant decline in demand from the photovoltaic sector this year." "BNEF attributes this to a reduction in the use of silver in silicon solar cells, which is expected to fall by a further 17% this year. This was likely triggered by the sharp rise in prices, which reached a record high of USD 120 per troy ounce at the end of January." "The silver price has since fallen by roughly half, but is still around 65% higher than a year ago. According to BNEF, silver currently accounts for more than 17% of the production costs of a solar module, making it the largest component of material costs."

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Labour strength and BoC stance – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight a strong Canadian labour market, with July employment up 75k and unemployment at 6.4%. Despite employment outpacing population growth and the employment rate at its highest since February 2025, they expect the Bank of Canada to stay on hold through 2026, returning to neutral policy in early 2027. Jobs outpace population, BoC still patient "The Canadian labour market was firing on all cylinders in July with another 75k jobs created to easily surpass expectations (TD & market) for another 20k print, as the unemployment rate fell another 0.1pp to 6.4% (lowest since 2024) despite a 0.1pp increase to the participation rate." "Details were upbeat, with the private sector leading job growth and an even split between full/part-time employment. Hours worked rose 0.6% m/m, while wage growth slowed to 3.0% y/y with help from base-effects." "The Bank of Canada was reluctant to embrace the recent stabilization at its last policy decision, where it acknowledged the job growth over May/June but repeated that labour market conditions remain soft. With job growth outpacing the population over the last six months, we could see the Bank shift its tone in September." "However, there is still material slack in the economy even with a 6.4% unemployment rate, and with core inflation running below 2% the Bank can stay patient. We still look for the Bank to stay on hold through 2026, with a return to neutral in early 2027." "On the CAD side, recent developments in the Canadian economy have evolved broadly in line with our forecasts. While the data surprise is briefly pushing USD/CAD below the 1.40 support level, we think the bearish USD momentum may not sustain unless US CPI also surprises lower to allow market to price out near-term Fed rate hiking odds." "The sharp USD/CAD reaction to the contrasting payroll outcomes suggests the market remains focused on both central-bank divergence and Canada's domestic outlook. On the USD side, next week's US CPI report will be the next major test for near-term Fed rate hike pricing."

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Mexico: Banxico extended hold stance – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reports that Banxico left its policy rate at 6.50%, signalling an extended pause as inflation hovers near target and real rates sit close to neutral. The bank now sees inflation converging to target in 4Q27, while external risks from Oil prices and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve argue against further easing, keeping Mexican rates on hold for an extended period. Banxico signals prolonged neutral stance "Banxico kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% and reiterated guidance favouring an extended pause." "Middle East-driven oil price risks and a potentially hawkish Fed reduce the scope for further policy easing." "We continue to expect Banxico to keep rates on hold for an extended period." "As widely expected, the Bank of Mexico kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the current growth-inflation mix and external backdrop justifying a policy stance that is neither overtly accommodative nor restrictive." "Overall, the August decision strengthens the case that the easing cycle has ended."

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Markets

August 7, 2026

NFP much below expectations! EUR/USD spikes

07.08 - US Non-Farming Payrolls Data (July) Averge Hourly Earnings (Mon): 0,1% (Expected: 0,1%; Previously: 0,3$) Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3,2% (Expected: 3,5%; Previously: 3,4%) Non-farm Payrolls: -23k (Expected: 85k; Previous: 20k) Participation rate: 61,4% (Previously: 61,5%) Unemployment Rate: 4,1% (Expected: 4,2%; Previously: 4,2%) Despite the lower unemployment rate, the latest labor market data paint a bleak picture. Average hourly earnings have fallen sharply, and the National Labor Force (NFP) itself has contracted sharply. The only reason for the decline in the unemployment rate in these circumstances is the falling labor force participation rate. The market is reflecting these macroeconomic sentiments and is strongly discounting the dollar following the data release. EURUSD (M1) Souce: xStation5

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August 7, 2026

Oil: Prices jump on Hormuz tensions – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan notes that Oil has spiked on renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, even as Brent remains below US$85/bbl. He highlights Iran’s proposed restrictions on US and Israeli ships and regional conflict risks. Despite the move, MUFG’s base case is for Oil prices to trend lower over time, cushioned by episodic escalation and de-escalation. Hormuz tensions drive short-term spike "Oil prices jump and the Dollar strengthen on signs of renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the non-farm payrolls numbers later today." "In particular, Iran will seek to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and require compensation from hostile countries before they are allowed to use it, according to local media reports on a proposed Iran-Oman deal." "To be clear oil prices remain low in absolute terms even as it has jumped, with Brent still below US$85/bbl at the time of our writing." "This is not to say it will not change, but overall, the global economy has shown continued signs of resilience despite these shocks, with rebalancing in oil helped by lower imports from China thus far." "Our base case remains for oil prices to move lower over time, albeit perhaps continue to be buffered by escalation and de-escalation."

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Labour resilience favours CAD against US Dollar – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s July Jobs Report to confirm ongoing labour market strength, with employment rising another 20k, matching consensus and extending the recovery of 2026 job losses. They see hiring intentions improving into Q3 and project the Unemployment Rate dipping to 6.4%, while wage growth slows to 3.4% year-on-year on a large base effect from last July. Employment gains and softer wages "We look for the labour market to build on recent strength with employment forecast to rise by another 20k in July, in line with the market consensus, after recovering most of the 2026 job losses over May/June." "Monthly hiring intentions have been trending higher into Q3, with the S&P Composite Employment indicator reaching its highest level since 2024Q4 in July." "Services could see a mild headwind from a partial unwind of recent strength in accommodation/food services, but payroll employment has been on a much stronger trajectory in recent months." "A 20k print would see the unemployment rate fall 0.1pp to 6.4% (market: 6.5%), while wage growth should slow by 0.3pp to 3.4% y/y on a large base effect from last July."

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Trade of the day: US500

Facts On August 7 , the US500 is trading near 7,745 points , while the 14-period RSI stands at 62.5 . Analysts recently raised their Q3 2026 EPS forecast for the S&P 500 by 0.3% in July, to $88.95 . Historically, according to FactSet , analysts have typically revised EPS estimates lower by 1.0% to 1.9% during the first month of a quarter. This marks the second consecutive quarter and the fourth out of the past five quarters in which EPS estimates have increased at the beginning of the quarter. Analysts also raised the full-year 2026 EPS forecast for the S&P 500 by 3.2% , from $340.49 to $351.33 . Recommendation Long US500 at market price Stop Loss: 7,540 Take Profit: 8,000 Opinion Rising earnings expectations remain one of the strongest fundamental arguments supporting further upside potential for Wall Street. Equity valuations are much easier to sustain when expectations for future corporate earnings improve, as higher stock prices are justified by stronger earnings rather than solely by an expansion in valuation multiples (such as the P/E ratio). Particularly encouraging is the fact that upward revisions have also been concentrated in the Financials and Energy sectors, suggesting that improving fundamentals extend beyond the largest technology companies and reflect broader economic strength. According to FactSet, the largest upward earnings revisions in recent weeks have been recorded in the Energy (+2.6%) and Financials (+1.7%) sectors, reinforcing the view that the improvement in earnings expectations is becoming increasingly broad-based. Higher earnings forecasts also signal growing optimism regarding the profitability of US companies, while the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 19.6 remains broadly in line with its five-year average of 19.9 and only slightly above its ten-year average of 19.0 . This suggests that the market's valuation has not expanded excessively despite the strong rally. Meanwhile, the second quarter of 2026 has delivered the strongest earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2021, when year-over-year comparisons were still heavily influenced by the post-pandemic recovery. The annual earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 has improved from 23% expected in June to around 47% today , driven largely by exceptionally strong results from Alphabet and Amazon . Importantly, even excluding these two companies, earnings growth would still stand at approximately 26% , comfortably above earlier expectations. From a technical perspective, the US500 is trading near the upper boundary of its ascending price channel. However, with the RSI remaining at a relatively moderate 62.5 , bullish momentum does not yet appear overstretched and could continue, particularly if oil prices retreat below $80 per barrel once again. Looking ahead, the US administration may face increasing political pressure to reduce tensions with Iran before the end of the summer, as media attention is expected to shift toward the upcoming US midterm elections. Persistently high gasoline prices could become a significant political headwind for Republicans, providing an additional incentive to pursue de-escalation in the Middle East. Taking both the fundamental and technical backdrop into account, we recommend initiating a long position in the US500 , with a stop loss at 7,540 , defined by recent price reactions, and a take profit at the psychologically significant 8,000-point level .

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Chart of the Day: What will drive the US stock market?

The Nasdaq 100 has been recording a dynamic recovery since the beginning of August. 🌍 Crude Oil Prices Tuesday's 3.2% rally was one of the strongest this year. The index was supported by lower crude oil prices, following statements from Scott Bessent. The Treasury Secretary said on CNBC that there is a chance that as early as today or tomorrow, we will be able to reach an agreement on opening the strait and take steps towards further normalisation of the situation in this conflict. This, of course, did not materialise. Currently, oil prices are rising again, weighing on the key US technology index. The price for a barrel of WTI crude oil is nearly 78 dollars, representing an increase of approximately 4.5% from Wednesday's lows. The so-called crack spread, the difference between the price of crude oil and the prices of petroleum products derived from it (such as petrol or diesel), also remains at very high levels. Figure 1: Price and Crack Spread for WTI Crude Oil (2025 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 07.08.2026 The increases are, of course, driven by headlines from the Middle East. Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement to clear traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The deal is currently reportedly awaiting approval from the Iranian parliament. However, there is little indication that it has any real chance of being accepted by the US. Authorities in Tehran are reportedly seeking to: introduce a total ban on passage for American and Israeli vessels, implement a new system of fees covering insurance and environmental costs, among others, demand special compensation payments from hostile states in exchange for restoring navigation rights. 📈 Earnings Season The Nasdaq also benefited in the first half of the week from results published by giants. Following the release of the Q2 report, Palantir shares rose by approximately 30%, as its products are now not just a narrow niche for government contracts but a powerful business tool for the private sector. Revenue growth reached 1.94 billion dollars (+94% y/y). For Q3, the company expects a result in the region of 2.16 billion dollars. EPS reached 0.41 dollars (+256% y/y). Figure 2: Dashboard for Palantir (07.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 07.08.2026 The improvement in sentiment towards the semiconductor sector was also beneficial, with shares bouncing slightly from local lows. Companies received some support from hyperscalers, whose quarterly reports showed unabated capital expenditure. In the case of Alphabet, CAPEX is expected to reach 200 billion dollars in 2026. The scale of the July correction was so significant, however, that the SOX index, which comprises the 30 largest US companies involved in the design, manufacture, distribution, and sale of semiconductors, is currently approximately 17% below its peak. AMD's results, which, as we wrote on Wednesday, proved to be "merely" good, did not help. The company beat consensus in terms of both revenue and earnings per share. It also presented a better-than-expected forecast for the next quarter. However, its shares fell by over 10%, highlighting how high investor expectations are set and the strength of results companies in this sector must deliver just to sustain current valuations. Figure 3: Dashboard for AMD (07.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 07.08.2026 There are no further publications from giants remaining this week. The most significant attention today will likely be on reports from Take-Two Interactive, Wendy's, and Under Armour. Next week we look forward to, among others, readings from Plug Power (Monday) and Super Micro Computer (Tuesday), which are also unlikely to have significant potential to move the broader market. 📈 NFP Report Today brings what is undoubtedly the most anticipated macroeconomic data release of the week. At 1:30 PM, the NFP data will be released, which is the most important report from the US labour market. Following the July meeting, which brought neither a hike in interest rates nor greater clarity regarding further committee actions, market pricing for rate hikes fell significantly, which was decidedly supportive for the equity market. Investors appear to be increasingly doubting that the hawkish communications from the new Fed Chair will be followed by concrete actions. Recall that almost exactly a year ago, Warsh openly sided with Trump, stating on FOX News that the President's frustration with Powell's conduct of monetary policy was fully justified. He criticised the institution at the time for being too slow to lower interest rates and overly reliant on lagging economic data. As the Fed must ensure both price stability and maximum employment, signals of a cooling US labour market could lead to a further dovish revision in the expected interest rate path in the USA. This is to some extent suggested by the ADP and JOLTS data published this week, both of which came in below market expectations. However, these are either data that are secondary under standard conditions (like ADP) or significantly delayed (like JOLTS). Furthermore, their correlation with the NFP reading has been relatively small in recent years. Figure 4: NFP and ISM PMI Employment Component (2020 - 2026) Source: XTB Research, 07.08.2026 It is worth mentioning that economists have had a tendency in recent years to underestimate the number of new non-farm jobs. The NFP reading has ultimately proved better than expectations in as many as 35 of the last 50 months. Technical Analysis Figure 5: US100 [D1] (18.12.2025 - 07.08.2026) Source: xStation, 07.08.2026 The index has been in a clear, long-term upward trend since March 2026. After marking a local peak at the 30.76k level, it entered a natural downward correction phase, reducing part of its earlier gains. The current price oscillates around 29.6k, showing strong signs of completing the corrective move and returning to the main trend. The key moment for the demand side was the successful defence of strategic support zones in the second half of July. In recent days, buyers have managed to push the price with momentum back above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA 50, yellow line, level approx. 29077). This is a very significant technical signal, indicating that bulls have regained short-term control of the market. This situation is confirmed by oscillatory indicators. The RSI indicator broke above the natural 50-point barrier from below, confirming the return of positive momentum. At the same time, it remains far from the overbought zone, which leaves plenty of room for the upward move to continue.

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August 7, 2026

Equities: Stocks pressured by higher yields and energy risks – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists notes that the S&P 500 slipped as geopolitical developments and higher yields pressured sentiment. Energy outperformed while industrials and materials lagged. Asian equities are mostly weaker this morning, while Chinese markets outperform and US futures remain broadly flat ahead of the July jobs report.” Equities soften on oil and yields "Turning to equities now, the S&P 500 (-0.18%) dipped on the news of the details of the Oman-Iran deal. Tech indices saw mixed moves, with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.06%) slipping but the Mag-7 (+0.24%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.33%) managing to advance. Energy (+1.59%) was the only sector in the S&P 500 to post a clear advance, while more energy-exposed sectors including industrials (-0.83%) and materials (-0.79%) struggled. " "In European markets, which closed shortly before the Fars News report, equities put in a more positive performance in comparison to US counterparts. The Stoxx 600 (+0.16%) and CAC 40 (+0.35%) posted fresh highs, while the DAX (+0.05%) also crept up." "Only the FTSE 100 (-0.19%) underperformed. Similarly in rates, while the rise in inflation pricing was modest (+0.9bps for 5yr), nominal yields did move higher. Gilts led the rise, with the 10yr gilt yield up +4.8bps, followed by OATs (+3.3bps) and bunds (+2.9bps)." "Asian equity markets are generally weaker this morning with the exception of Chinese related markets. The KOSPI (-1.10%) is trading lower again, extending its weekly losses to more than 6% and putting the index on course for a seventh consecutive weekly decline. The Nikkei (-0.55%) is also moving lower, although it remains on track to post a weekly gain of over +1.0%." "In contrast, mainland Chinese equities are outperforming, with the CSI 300 (+0.83%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.50%) both advancing. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.15%) is trading modestly higher, while the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.03%) is struggling for direction. US equity futures and Treasuries are fairly flat this morning. "

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Oil: Volatile range trading outlook – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Joe DeLaura details how renewed United States (US)–Iran tensions and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp rally and subsequent correction in Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI). He expects Brent to oscillate within a wide range, with geopolitical headlines around Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab dictating moves. Rabobank also raises its Brent and WTI forecasts for late 2026 and 2027. Geopolitics drive wide crude ranges "As of this publishing, Brent is near $81 and WTI $76.30/bbl. We expect Brent to trade in a volatile range between $70-75 as our targeted support points on the low end and $95-$100 as the upper bounds. Increased transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab and peace deal rumors will push prices lower, while fresh escalation and consistent attacks on shipping will push crude to the upper end of this range." "We believe that a short-term deal to open up the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping is unlikely as both sides have very little common ground. It offers no permanent solutions for the key sticking points that the whole conflict centers around! Instead, it offers another 60-day window of free transits through Hormuz while further negotiations resume." "If a deal is agreed, it could be a matter of time until either party expresses frustration with the negotiations again and markets are forced to price in another few weeks of geopolitical tension." "The world is still drawing down about 2-5 mb/d per day depending if we see another call for SPR releases, and another 5-6 mb/d of refined products. The savings account of inventories won’t last forever." "Our current view is that Hormuz could only return to 50-60% of prewar flows (including diversions to Yanbu/Fujairah) by 2027 but Middle East refinery exports are assumed back to normal only by middle of 2028. This is large gulf between oil and products." "Forecast Changes: Brent Q3 2026 ↑ to $84/bbl, Q4 2026 ↑ to $80/bbl, 2027 ↑ to $76.50. WTI Q3 2026 ↑ to $80.50/bbl, Q4 2026 ↑ to $76/bbl, 2027 ↑ to $72.25/bbl.

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Czech Koruna: CZK softens against Euro as CNB waits – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that the Czech National Bank (CNB) kept its policy rate at 3.75% and returned to a wait-and-see stance after June’s 25bp hike, despite still citing upside inflation risks. Governor Ales Michl sounded less urgent and stressed a focus on core inflation over fuel-price volatility. With forecasts implying rate stability, the Koruna weakened slightly, and Commerzbank expects EUR/CZK to trade sideways near 24.20 in coming months. CNB policy pause and koruna outlook "The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, as unanimously expected. No surprise. The more relevant signal was that CNB has settled back into wait-and-see mode after the 25bp June hike, while still describing the outlook as inflationary overall." "The board continues to cite elevated core inflation, robust nominal wage growth and possible acceleration in money supply growth as upside risks. But this is now familiar language rather than a fresh hawkish escalation." "Governor Ales Michl also did not sound particularly hawkish to us. He confirmed that the previous tightening has produced a more appropriate interest rate level, which is adequate for now, although he is leaving all options open for forthcoming meetings." "Michl also emphasised that CNB will focus on core inflation, not direct fuel-price volatility from the US-Iran war. This reduces the chance that every oil price move will be mechanically translated into rate hike expectations." "Hence, the koruna depreciated modestly

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Japanese Yen: Higher US rate volatility favors safe havens – BNY

BNY's David Tam argues that rising U.S. rate volatility should favor safe-haven currencies, with the Yen historically benefiting from such episodes. Heavy speculative JPY shorts add another catalyst, as appreciation could force position unwinds and trigger a sharper squeeze. Heavy Yen shorts raise squeeze risk "We argued in our recent note that rising U.S. rate vol will lead safe-haven currencies to appreciate through a mix of safe-haven and repatriation flows. Conversely, high-beta, risk-sensitive currencies could depreciate due to a shift in global risk sentiment." "The JPY exhibits a unique property among low-yielding funding currencies. Historical bouts of increasing rate vol tend to correlate with JPY appreciation while other funding currencies tend to depreciate." "By contrast, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (IMM) data shows near-historic levels of net short positioning of non-commercial futures positions in the CHF and JPY. The JPY has seen a steady march down since April 2025, when trend-following traders such as CTAs and other momentum traders first began unwinding their historic net longs in the wake of Liberation Day." "This positioning divergence could create a trading opportunity: With real money investors preparing for defensiveness and fast money investors leaning the other way, markets could be vulnerable to a sharp squeeze. For investors who expect JPY to appreciate, the positioning divergence argues for upside in both JPY and CHF. The JPY is the cleaner trade: if speculative shorts are forced to unwind, the move should be sharper."

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Today Markets – NFP Preview

NFP preview: Will markets get the weak print they would like? The July labour market report will be released today at 1330 BST. The market expects a reading of 80k, up from 57k in June. The unemployment rate could edge up to 4.3%, mostly due to a rounding error, and wages may grow by 0.3% MoM. The range of economist estimates for the July payrolls number is between 70k and 115k. Although US stocks experienced mild losses on Thursday, markets have rallied hard into this payrolls meeting. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones have both posted record highs, while the Nasdaq experienced 1% gains on 4 straight days, only the 17th time it has done this. Elevated Treasury yields will be sensitive to payrolls reading However, this report could expose a fault line. US Treasury yields are elevated. Although 10-year yields have fallen moderately in the past month, the 10-year yield is trading above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield is trading just below 5.2%. Will payrolls break the stock market rally? The Fed meeting at the end of July saw three FOMC members vote for a rate hike. If we get a stronger than expected payrolls reading and elevated wage pressure, then this could push up expectations for a September rate hike, reinforce the ‘higher for longer’ narrative on interest rates, and break the recent rally in US stocks. The reverse is also true, a weaker than expected reading could give traders a green light to carry on with the recent rally. The lead indicators for the payrolls report have been generally weak. Although the ISM manufacturing report for July showed an increase in the employment component of the report, the ISM services sector saw the employment component slump to 47.4 from 51.2, which is deep in contraction territory. Added to this, the ADP private sector payrolls report was also weaker than expected at 44k. The market’s bias is for a weaker reading The ADP report was unexpectedly low, and we think that due to this the market is expecting a similar reading for today’s payrolls. This means that an upside surprise in payrolls could spook financial markets later today. The ADP report showed that services, including healthcare and education, were the biggest contributors to private sector payroll growth. These sectors have been driving most of the jobs growth in the US so far this year, so an upside surprise may need to see other sectors start to do some of the heavy lifting. The market reaction: It is worth watching Fed interest rate expectations in the aftermath of today’s report. A surprise reading would have the biggest impact on financial markets. Currently there is a mostly even chance of a rate hike in September. The outcome of the NFP could tip the balance in favour of a hike or remaining on hold for another month. An upside surprise would have the biggest impact on US Treasury yields, and the 10-year yield is worth watching as it could lead to a breakout above 4.6% towards 5%. USD/JPY: will payrolls disrupt yen intervention? If that happens then it could put upward pressure on the USD, and there is potential for excess volatility in USD/JPY later today, since the yen is fading the recent intervention highs. This pair is now testing the 200-day sma at 158.56, a weekly close above this level would be an extremely bullish development for this pair. A stronger than expected payrolls reading could push USD/JPY back towards 160, which may spook financial markets, as it would suggest that multilateral intervention to strengthen the yen is not working. If this happens then it could push up global bond yields, and lead to fears of a deeper financial problem if the Japanese authorities need to sell Treasuries to boost their currency in the future. Thus, the outcome of today’s payrolls report could have a broad impact on financial markets. Gold to rally further is payrolls are weak The gold price is also worth watching, especially if we get a weaker than expected payrolls reading. The gold price has been rallying into this report, it is now above $4,300, the highest level since mid-June. If we get a weaker reading, then it could extend this rally towards $4,500 per ounce. Overall, the market reaction to this report is likely to be binary. If it moves the dial for a September rate hike, then we could see sharp market reactions. Chart 1: USD/JPY Source: XTB Chart 2: Gold Source: XTB

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August 7, 2026

Gold: Breakout holds as US payrolls loom – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note Gold has retained most recent gains after breaking key resistance, supported by lower Oil, softer yields, central bank and ETF buying and technical factors. Momentum has eased as rebounding Oil revives inflation concerns and lifts US Treasury yields, with Friday’s US payrolls seen as the next test for whether the Gold rally can extend further. Bullish structure faces data test "Gold retained most of its recent gains, although momentum eased as the rebound in oil revived inflation concerns and pushed US Treasury yields higher." "The earlier rally was helped by lower oil prices, pullback in yields, USD, news of central bank, ETF purchases and technical buying after prices broke above key resistance." "Tonight’s payrolls report is the next test. A weaker print could reinforce the recent move by further reducing Fed hike expectations, while a firmer outcome may prompt some profittaking after the sharp rally." "Daily momentum is mildly bullish but rise in RSI moderated. Resistance at 4333 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4389 (100 DMA)." "Support at 4180 (50 DMA), 4082 (21 DMA)."

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Equities: Sector rotation dominates risk-off – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports equities closed lower in a 2026-style risk-off session driven by sentiment rather than macro or earnings. Higher Oil prices weighed, but the key feature was pronounced rotation from cyclicals into defensives such as energy, consumer staples and health care. AI-related concerns continue to pressure Asian technology-heavy indices. Defensives outperform as AI worries grow " Equities ended lower yesterday in what was once again a textbook 2026 style risk off session, albeit one that looked very different from a traditional risk off environment." "The move was not driven by deteriorating macro data or disappointing earnings, but rather by weaker sentiment as investors became increasingly concerned about geopolitics and the pace of AI investment." "Higher oil prices weighed on broader equities, but the dominant feature remained sector rotation rather than outright selling. Defensives outperformed, led by energy, while consumer staples and health care also advanced. " "The magnitude of the ongoing rotations between cyclicals and defensives continues to be striking and remains far larger than the underlying market moves. Yesterday also marked the first session in a week where value and min vol outperformed, while Europe emerged as the strongest regional market." "This morning, AI concerns continue to weigh on Asian markets, particularly the more technology heavy indices, while US and European futures are trading mixed."

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Euro: US payrolls could cap gains against the US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that reduced expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening have helped EUR/USD climb, but questions how justified this move is. He stresses that Kevin Warsh’s lack of forward guidance does not preclude rate hikes, and that stronger US labour data could shift expectations back toward tighter policy. Commerzbank has cut its EUR/USD forecast by two cents across its horizon as perceived Dollar hike risks rise. dollar risks reprice on Fed uncertainty "Since last week's Fed meeting, expectations of interest rate hikes have been priced out. Rather than tightening by roughly 44 basis points by the end of the year, the expectation is now for 'only' 33. This is likely the main reason why EUR-USD has recently climbed higher again." "The key point is this: the absence of forward guidance does not mean that there will be no change in interest rates. It simply means that any change will not be announced in advance. This shifts the focus to the decision itself and places greater emphasis on the data." "Today's labour market figures could provide an initial indication of the direction of future monetary policy. Our economists expect 100,000 new jobs to be created, which is a stronger increase than the current Bloomberg consensus forecast of +80,000. However, the USD’s reaction will depend not only on the headline figure, but also on the extent of revisions to previous months' figures and the unemployment rate." "If today's figures are more positive than expected, this would strongly suggest possible interest rate hikes. While we still do not believe that the Fed ultimately intends to take this step, the market is unlikely to be deterred from continuing to bet on a rate hike. This is one of the main reasons why we have revised our EUR/USD forecast downwards by two cents over our whole forecast horizon this week." "This is because, even though we have not adjusted our Fed forecast

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Brent: US-Iran tensions support prices – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note renewed strength in Oil, with ICE Brent rallying back above $82/bbl as obstacles to a US-Iran deal persist. They highlight Iranian demands around the Strait of Hormuz and limited signs of compromise. ING still expects Brent to average $80/bbl in the third quarter, while stressing significant risks and uncertainty. Brent supported by deal obstacles "Oil prices rallied yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 3.8% higher on the day, taking it back above $82/bbl. This strength continued in early morning trading today. Developments over the last 24 hours or so demonstrate once again that negotiations between the US and Iran are unlikely to proceed smoothly." "There are suggestions that Iran wants to ban US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz, while also seeking compensation from hostile countries before they can use the strait again. In addition, Iran still wants to charge fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in the form of service fees rather than a toll. There doesn’t seem to be much of a compromise, which ultimately makes it more difficult to reach a sustainable deal." "Despite clear signs of progress in recent days, the tenor of the rhetoric and growing distrust between the US and Iran mean things could go from bad to worse once again. For now, we hold onto our view that flows will start to normalise through the third quarter, which leaves us expecting Brent to average $80/bbl this quarter. However, there's plenty of risk and uncertainty to this view." "Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for almost all crude grades and to all destinations for September loadings. Arab Light into Asia was cut by S$0.50/bbl to a $2/bbl discount to the benchmark. There has been a push by Asian buyers for the Saudis to cut their official selling prices (OSPs) amid the escalation in the Red Sea." "It means that some tankers are taking the longer and more expensive shipping route around Africa."

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Banks

August 7, 2026

Euro: Rebound against US Dollar faces key cloud barrier – UOB

UOB Group’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD has staged a sharp rebound after drifting sideways, following a decline from January’s high to mid-June’s low. The pair is seen with scope to extend gains, but the analyst stresses that the 1.1560/1.1565 zone, aligned with the daily Ichimoku cloud top and a weekly trendline, is critical resistance, while support is noted at 1.1470 and 1.1445. Rebound constrained by cloud resistance "EUR/USD rose briefly to 1.2078 in late January before declining to 1.1324 in mid-June. It then drifted sideways until last week, when it rebounded sharply. Given the deeply oversold weekly slow stochastic, the rebound was not surprising." "While there is scope for EUR/USD to rebound further, it must first surpass the significant resistance at 1.1560/1.1565." "The upper boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1560 was tested a few times this week but remained intact. The declining weekly trendline from January’s high is currently near 1.1565. Looking ahead, should EUR/USD break and hold above 1.1560/1.1565, it could rise toward 1.1622, the minor peak in June." "Support is at 1.1470 (current level of the 21-day EMA), followed by the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1445. If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1445, it would mean that the top of the cloud may continue to act as significant resistance for some time."

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Soybeans Attempt Rebound

Soybean futures rose above $11.6 per bushel, attempting to rebound from a five-week low, supported by stronger Chinese demand and higher crude oil prices. Reports of renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of clarity over a deal to reopen the critical waterway lifted oil prices. Agricultural prices often tracked energy markets due to the growing use of crop-based feedstocks in biofuel production. In addition, the USDA confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year beginning September 1, following Beijing's purchase of about 1 million tons of US soybeans last week. Meanwhile, ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued to pose risks to Black Sea grain exports, although expectations of another large Black Sea harvest weighed on prices. Additional pressure came from expectations of ample global supplies, with brokerage StoneX forecasting the 2026 US soybean harvest at 4.47 billion bushels.

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Corn Rises from One-Month Low

Corn futures rose to around $4.4 per bushel, attempting to rebound from a four-week low as higher crude oil prices boosted demand for biofuel feedstocks. Reports of renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of clarity over a deal to reopen the critical waterway drove oil prices higher. Agricultural commodity prices often tracked energy markets due to the growing use of crop-based feedstocks in biofuel production. Meanwhile, expectations of abundant supplies limited gains, with brokerage StoneX projecting the 2026 US corn harvest at 16.16 billion bushels. Additionally, the USDA lowered its good-to-excellent rating for the US corn crop for a third consecutive week, though the deterioration did little to offset the market's bearish supply outlook. Traders also continued to monitor the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on Black Sea grain exports, although expectations for another large harvest from the region continued to weigh on prices.

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Gold trades above $4,250; upside seems capped as Fed hike bets support USD ahead of US NFP

Gold attracts some dip-buyers on Friday, stalling the previous day’s retracement slide. Geopolitical risks, inflation fears and Fed hike bets underpin the USD, capping gains. Traders might opt to wait for the crucial US NFP report before placing directional bets. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from levels just above the $4,300 mark, or the highest since June 18. The commodity currently trades just above $4,250 and seems poised to register its best week since January. The upside, however, seems limited amid mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks and ahead of the crucial US monthly employment details. US President Donald Trump told reporters ​on Thursday that he believed ‌the war with Iran would be over soon. However, a Saudi official said that some Iraqi militia factions, in coordination with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, are planning to attack the kingdom in the very near future. This raises the risk of a wider regional conflict and prompts traders to price in the geopolitical risk premium, which is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and might cap gains for Gold. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran is reviewing a framework agreement over the management of the Strait of Hormuz that would prohibit passage of US, Israeli, and hostile vessels until compensation was paid. This, in turn, dampens hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old US-Iran war. Moreover, Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, reviving concerns about energy supply disruptions, supporting oil prices and fueling inflation fears. This might force global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance, which should contribute to keeping a lid on the non-yielding Gold. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in an over 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This favors the USD bulls and warrants some caution before positioning for the resumption of the XAU/USD pair's recent recovery from the $4,000 psychological mark. Moreover, traders seem hesitant to place fresh directional bets and might opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The key labor market data will influence market expectations about the Fed's future policy path and drive USD demand, which, in turn, should provide meaningful impetus to Gold. Analysts at OCBC note that “near-term momentum has improved,” with the upcoming US payrolls report now seen as “key to whether the decline in yields, USD and gold’s breakout can be sustained.” They point out that gold was “last seen at $4,247 levels,” with “daily momentum is mildly bullish while RSI rose to near overbought conditions.” On the technical front, OCBC highlights “resistance at $4,333 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), $4,393 (100 DMA)” and “support at $4,160 (50 DMA), $4,077 (21 DMA),” suggesting a constructive bias while acknowledging that the sustainability of the recent move will hinge on the tone of US data. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis: Gold needs to surpass 38.2% Fibo near $4,300 to back the case for further gains This week's breakout through the $4,165 confluence – comprising the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June slide and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Momentum indicators also align with this constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.29 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) above zero with a positive latest reading. This, in turn, suggests that buying pressure remains in control while the advance faces an emerging overhead hurdle near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around $4,300. The aforementioned barrier is followed by the 50% retracement at $4,414 and the 61.8% level at $4,525, which together define a broad resistance zone before higher hurdles at $4,683 and $4,884. On the downside, immediate support is located around $4,265, with stronger demand expected at the 23.6% retracement at $4,165 and the 50-day SMA at $4,151. A deeper pullback toward the structural anchor near $3,943 would be needed to challenge the current bullish bias.

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Cattle Fall as Beef Slips Back

Live cattle futures reverted lower on Thursday, as contracts were down $2.95 to $4.55 across the board. Cash trade picked up on Thursday, with most trade at $235 live and $370 dressed (North) across the country. The Thursday Fed Cattle Exchange online auction showed no sales on the 734 head offered, with bids at $233-234 live. Feeder cattle futures faced losses of $5.12 to $7.57 across the board on Thursday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.28 on August 5 to $352.93. Export Sales data from USDA showed beef sales for 2026 at 19,845 MT for the week ending on 7/30. That was a 6-week high. South Korea was the buyer of 9,300 MT, with 6,600 MT sold to Japan. Shipments were tallied at 12,461 MT, which back up from last week. The top destination was South Korea at 3,800 MT, with 2,800 MT headed to Japan.  Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Thursday afternoon report. Choice boxes were down $4.11 at $363.86, with Select $1.72 higher to $349.78. The Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $14.08. USDA’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter for Thursday was estimated at 107,000 head, with the week to date total at 413,000 head. That is up 6,000 head from the previous week but 36,284 head below the same week last year. Aug 26 Live Cattle  closed at $231.225, down $2.950, Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $224.925, down $4.550, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $224.375, down $4.300, Aug 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $348.050, down $5.275, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $341.575, down $6.800, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $331.950, down $7.475,

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Cocoa Prices Slide as Global Supply Concerns Ease

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down -106 (-1.80%) on Thursday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed down -100 (-2.30%). Cocoa prices fell sharply for a second day on Thursday amid signs of larger cocoa supplies from Ghana. Ghana’s cocoa board reported on Wednesday that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.  Rising cocoa inventories are also weighing on prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,384,965 bags on Wednesday. On Wednesday, cocoa prices rose to 3-week highs on positive carryover from last Friday, amid concerns over future cocoa production in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.  Last Friday, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  Cocoa prices dropped to 1-month lows last Tuesday on signs of larger global cocoa supplies amid suspect demand.  Monday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Also, Bloomberg reported on July 16 that Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT.  Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y. On the positive side, StoneX last Wednesday cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Cocoa prices have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  However, a senior manager at Expana said on July 23 that the most recent surveys show a substantial improvement in cocoa pod counts compared with the early surveys.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  The outlook for a smaller global cocoa surplus is supportive of cocoa prices.  On July 23, Transgraph Consulting forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa prices also have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  The outlook for smaller cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, supports prices.  Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. 

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Sugar Prices Surge on Smaller Brazil Sugar Production

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.42 (+2.77%) on Thursday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +10.00 (+2.10%). Sugar prices rallied sharply on Thursday, with NY sugar posting a 4.25-month nearest-futures high and London sugar posting a 1-month high.  Lower sugar output in Brazil pushed prices sharply higher on Thursday after Unica reported that Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell -26.3% y/y to 3.903 MMT.  Brazil is the largest sugar-producing country in the world. Since posting a 5-month low last Thursday, sugar prices have moved higher on the outlook for tighter future sugar supplies.  On Monday, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus. Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Wednesday raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT, and StoneX last Tuesday raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT. Concerns over India’s sugar crop are supporting prices.  Last Friday, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September. India is the second-largest sugar-producing country in the world.  Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  India’s weather office recently lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season to 90% of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April.  Last Thursday, NY sugar matched a 5-month low amid the prospects of higher Indian sugar output as monsoon rains had improved.  India’s Meteorological Department reported on Wednesday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 11% below normal as of August 5, a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30.  As a bullish factor, sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices from the US-Iran war. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts that global sugar production will fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, and that there will be a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

August 7, 2026

Copper Scales Record Levels on Supply Worries

Copper futures climbed above $6.7 per pound on Friday, reaching fresh record highs as mounting global supply risks continued to support the market. The Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper concentrates, highlighting a growing trend among resource-rich nations to retain more value by expanding domestic refining and processing capacity. Concerns over potential US import tariffs on copper also continued to divert supplies from international markets into US warehouses. Meanwhile, operations at part of Codelco’s flagship El Teniente mine could remain suspended for up to two years, adding to supply concerns. On the demand side, copper remained supported by a strong outlook for power grid upgrades and data center expansion as the global shift toward electrification and artificial intelligence continued to drive consumption.

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Energies

August 7, 2026

Heating Oil Rebounds

US heating oil futures rose above $3.90 per gallon on Friday, rebounding from an over three-week low, as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz cast fresh doubt on efforts to fully reopen the vital shipping route. Iranian state media also reported that parliament is reviewing a proposal to bar ships linked to the US, Israel, and other countries deemed hostile by Tehran from transiting the Strait of Hormuz under the Oman-brokered shipping agreement until Iran receives compensation for war-related damages. Adding to supply concerns, Ukraine carried out long-range drone attacks on two Russian oil refineries, including one of the country's largest. Russia's gasoline and diesel exports plunged 60% in July, prompting Moscow to extend its gasoline export ban through January 2027. Meanwhile, EIA data showed distillate fuel inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.473 million barrels in the week ended July 31.

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Energies

August 7, 2026

Gasoline Extends Gains

US gasoline futures rose above $2.90 per gallon on Friday, extending their rebound from a nearly five-week low as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz cast fresh doubt on efforts to fully reopen the vital shipping route. Iranian state media also reported that lawmakers are considering suspending transit rights under the Oman-brokered shipping agreement for vessels linked to the US, Israel, and other countries deemed hostile by Tehran. Adding to supply concerns, Ukraine carried out drone strikes on two Russian oil refineries, including one of the country's largest in the Yaroslavl region, following a brief lull in late July that had allowed a partial recovery in fuel supplies. Russia's gasoline and diesel exports plunged 60% in July, prompting Moscow to extend its gasoline export ban through January 2027. Meanwhile, EIA data showed gasoline inventories fell by 1.64 million barrels in the week ended July 31, leaving stockpiles 7% below the five-year seasonal average.

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Markets

August 6, 2026

Stock of The Week

The larger data centers become, the less important a single processor becomes, while the network connecting thousands of computing units into one efficient system gains increasing importance. Without this infrastructure, even the most powerful hardware cannot reach its full potential. This is the foundation on which Arista Networks has built its position for nearly two decades. The company does not compete with chip manufacturers and does not develop its own artificial intelligence models. Instead, it provides the technology responsible for communication inside the world’s largest data centers. Its solutions are used by companies such as Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, all of which are among the biggest investors in AI infrastructure development. In recent years, the importance of networking infrastructure has increased significantly. The reason is straightforward. Each new generation of AI models requires more data, greater computing power and an increasing number of processors working simultaneously. As a result, the ability to exchange information quickly and efficiently between these systems has become just as important as the performance of the computing units themselves. The recently published second quarter 2026 results show that Arista continues to benefit from this trend. The company maintains strong growth momentum, expands its business scale and remains one of the key beneficiaries of record investment in data centers. The question is no longer whether Arista benefits from the AI expansion, but whether its current valuation still leaves room for further upside. Chapter 1. The biggest challenge for data centers is no longer only computing power For many years, the development of data centers was relatively simple to describe. The most important element was computing power. The more advanced the processors became, the greater the capabilities of the entire infrastructure. Today, this model is no longer sufficient. The most demanding computational tasks increasingly require thousands of chips working together simultaneously. A modern data center is no longer a collection of independent servers, but a massive interconnected system where individual components constantly exchange information. In this environment, raw computing power is no longer the only limitation. Equally important is how quickly and efficiently individual components can communicate with each other. This shift has significantly increased the importance of networking infrastructure. Until recently, networks were often viewed as a supporting element responsible mainly for transferring data between devices. Today, in the largest data centers, networking has become one of the core components of the entire architecture. The reason is simple. When thousands of processors are working together on a single task, even small communication delays can reduce the efficiency of the entire system. This transformation has major implications for infrastructure providers. The market is no longer focused solely on who produces the most advanced processors. Increasingly, investors are looking at companies responsible for connecting these components into one integrated and efficient system. Arista Networks is one of the companies benefiting from this structural change. The company operates in an area that for years remained in the shadow of the biggest technology names, but as data centers have grown in scale, it has become one of the most important parts of the entire ecosystem. The story is no longer only about increasing the number of processors. It is about building infrastructure that allows those processors to work together effectively. Chapter 2. Arista Networks: the company powering communication inside the world’s largest data centers Arista Networks is not a company that attracts attention from everyday technology users. It does not manufacture processors, create consumer applications or provide services visible on a typical computer screen. Its business operates behind the scenes. The company provides network switches and software used in the largest data centers worldwide. Its solutions enable efficient communication between servers, processors and other critical infrastructure components. This invisible layer of technology has become one of the most important areas of investment for the largest technology companies. Arista has built its position primarily through focusing on the most demanding customers. Its clients include Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, companies operating some of the largest computing environments in the world. A key element of Arista’s competitive advantage is not only its hardware, but also its proprietary network management software. The EOS operating system allows customers to efficiently manage complex infrastructure and automate network operations. This approach differentiates Arista from traditional networking equipment manufacturers. The company does not compete purely on hardware pricing. Instead, it provides solutions designed for organizations where reliability, scalability and performance are critical. For the largest data center operators, switching suppliers is not a simple decision. Network modernization requires time, testing and integration with existing systems. As a result, companies that earn the trust of major operators can build long-term competitive advantages. Arista’s history shows that the biggest investment opportunities are not always found in the most visible areas of the market. Sometimes the greatest beneficiaries of technological change are companies providing the essential infrastructure that allows the entire system to function. For Arista, that essential element is communication between devices, which becomes increasingly important as data centers continue to expand. Chapter 3. Artificial intelligence has changed the importance of networking infrastructure Until recently, data center development was mainly associated with increasing computing power. Companies invested in faster processors and more servers because these components determined the capabilities of the entire infrastructure. Today, the situation is changing. The most demanding AI workloads are no longer handled by individual chips, but by thousands of processors operating together. In such an environment, communication speed between components becomes just as important as computing capability itself. This is why networking infrastructure has gained strategic importance. Modern data centers increasingly resemble one enormous computing system where multiple devices must operate together seamlessly. If communication between these components is not fast enough, even the most advanced hardware cannot achieve its full potential. This structural shift directly benefits Arista Networks. The company provides solutions responsible for communication inside the largest data centers. Its growth does not depend on one specific processor manufacturer or a single computing technology. Its products remain essential regardless of which companies dominate future generations of AI hardware. This is the central investment argument behind Arista. The expansion of artificial intelligence does not only increase demand for processors and servers. It also creates demand for increasingly advanced networks capable of allowing thousands of computing units to function as one integrated system. The largest data center operators, including Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, are significantly increasing capital expenditure. Every new generation of infrastructure requires not only more computing equipment but also solutions enabling efficient communication between those systems. This places Arista in one of the most strategically important positions in the technology ecosystem. The company does not sell a product that attracts consumer attention. Its value comes from solving a problem that becomes increasingly important as data centers grow in complexity and scale. Chapter 4. Financial results confirm the strength of demand for AI infrastructure Arista Networks once again delivered results significantly above market expectations. The company continues to benefit from a powerful investment cycle in data centers, where growing demand for AI-related technologies requires increasingly advanced networking infrastructure. Key second quarter 2026 figures: Revenue reached approximately $3.04 billion, representing 38% year-over-year growth. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.02, compared with market expectations of approximately $0.89. Non-GAAP operating margin increased to 49.9%, highlighting the exceptional profitability of the business model. The company generated strong cash flow, maintaining high-quality growth. Third quarter revenue guidance was raised to approximately $3.3 billion. Management also increased full-year revenue growth expectations, pointing to stronger demand than previously anticipated. These results show that Arista’s growth is not simply a result of short-term enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence. The company is benefiting from a fundamental transformation in infrastructure spending among the largest cloud providers, which are expanding data centers and investing heavily in networks capable of supporting increasingly demanding workloads. The most important element for investors was the improved outlook for future quarters. The market had been concerned that after several years of exceptional growth, expansion could begin to slow. However, Arista demonstrated that demand remains extremely strong. Higher guidance suggests that investments from major customers such as Microsoft and Meta are likely to continue supporting growth. The key conclusion for investors is that Arista remains one of the major beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom. However, as expectations rise, the company faces an increasingly demanding standard. Future performance must not only remain strong but also prove that current AI infrastructure spending represents the beginning of a long-term investment cycle. Chapter 5. Financial analysis: a business of exceptional quality Arista Networks stands out among technology companies not only because of its growth rate, but above all because of the quality and consistency of its financial performance. Over the years, the company has built a business model that combines scalable revenue growth with profitability levels more typical of technology companies with strong competitive advantages rather than traditional networking equipment manufacturers. The foundation of Arista’s success is the combination of specialized networking infrastructure, proprietary software and a strong position among the largest cloud operators. The company does not compete solely on the price of its products. Instead, it provides mission critical solutions for modern data centers. This allows Arista to maintain strong pricing power and stable margins that remain significantly above the average for the broader IT infrastructure sector. The most important element of Arista’s financial profile is its ability to consistently expand the scale of its business. The company has steadily increased revenue, benefiting from long term trends such as cloud computing growth, enterprise digital transformation and rising demand for AI infrastructure. Importantly, this growth has not come at the expense of profitability. Gross margins have remained around 60 to 62% for years, demonstrating the durability of the company’s competitive advantage and the high value of its technology. Another important factor is improving operational efficiency. Arista operates a highly scalable business model, where revenue growth does not require a proportional increase in fixed costs. As the company expands, an increasing portion of additional sales flows directly into operating profit. This is reflected in consistently high operating margins and strong capital efficiency metrics. Return on equity of approximately 31% and return on invested capital above 28% demonstrate that Arista is capable of generating exceptional returns on the capital used to grow its business. One of Arista’s biggest strengths remains its ability to generate significant amounts of cash. Unlike many companies involved in the AI infrastructure boom, Arista operates a relatively asset light business model. The company does not need to finance the construction of massive data centers or invest billions of dollars into manufacturing its own processors. Its role is to provide the critical communication layer that allows these systems to operate faster and more efficiently. As a result, a significant portion of earnings is converted into real cash flow. Strong cash generation also translates into an exceptionally healthy balance sheet. Arista maintains a net cash position and does not rely on debt financing. This provides significant financial flexibility during weaker economic periods, allows continued investment in technology development and enables shareholder value creation without pressure from interest expenses. From a market perspective, the biggest challenge is not the quality of the business itself, but its valuation. Investors have recognized Arista’s exceptional position for years, and the company trades at a premium compared with many technology peers. High P/E multiples indicate that the market expects continued rapid growth and further benefits from global expansion of AI infrastructure. This means future results must not only remain strong, but also continue to justify the elevated expectations already reflected in the share price. Looking at Arista Networks from a broader perspective, the company represents a rare combination of characteristics: a growing end market, high margins, a fortress balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation. This combination places Arista among the most attractive long term beneficiaries of digital infrastructure expansion and artificial intelligence development. Chapter 6. Risks Despite its strong fundamentals, Arista Networks is not an investment without risks. The company’s current valuation reflects expectations of continued strong growth and further expansion of the AI infrastructure market. This means that any slowdown in data center investment or weaker than expected financial results could trigger a negative market reaction. The biggest risk remains elevated investor expectations. In recent years, Arista has become one of the major beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom, which has been reflected in both its share price performance and valuation. At such a high level of market confidence, investors are no longer looking only for solid results, but for continued positive surprises. For highly valued technology companies, even strong growth may not be enough if it falls short of already elevated market expectations. Another important risk is customer concentration. Arista’s growth is closely linked to spending from the largest technology companies building massive data center networks, including Microsoft, Meta and other cloud service providers. Currently, these companies are increasing capital expenditure to support rising demand for AI computing capacity. However, if investment growth slows, it could directly impact Arista’s future expansion rate. Competitive pressure is another factor that cannot be ignored. The networking infrastructure market remains highly competitive, and the largest technology companies continuously develop internal solutions while maintaining relationships with multiple suppliers. Arista has a strong market position and significant technological advantages, but maintaining current margins will require continuous investment in product development and ongoing innovation. The biggest long term question concerns the sustainability of the current AI investment cycle. The market assumes that artificial intelligence development will require years of massive spending on infrastructure. If this scenario plays out, Arista should remain one of the key beneficiaries of this trend. However, if current investment levels represent a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a long lasting transformation, the company’s valuation could become increasingly difficult to justify. Summary Arista Networks remains one of the most interesting infrastructure companies benefiting from the expansion of artificial intelligence. The company does not receive the same level of public attention as chip manufacturers or AI model developers, but it provides a critical component without which the continued growth of this market would be significantly more difficult. The networks responsible for communication between thousands of computing units are becoming increasingly important in modern data centers, and Arista has established itself as one of the leaders in this segment. The latest financial results confirmed that the company continues to successfully benefit from the current investment cycle. Strong revenue growth, exceptional profitability and improved guidance demonstrate that demand for Arista’s solutions remains extremely strong. Importantly, the company is not simply benefiting from short term AI enthusiasm. It is positioned within a long term transformation in how global technology infrastructure is built. At the same time, the current valuation shows that the market has already recognized Arista’s potential. Further share price appreciation will require not only strong results but also the continuation of exceptional growth rates over the coming years. For Arista, the key question is no longer whether the company benefits from the AI revolution. The question is whether the scale and duration of this growth will be sufficient to justify investor expectations. At present, Arista remains a company with outstanding fundamentals, a high quality business model and strategic importance for the entire artificial intelligence ecosystem. The main investment risk does not come from operational weakness, but from the very high expectations already embedded in the valuation. If the AI infrastructure boom continues, Arista has strong arguments to remain one of the major long term winners of this technological transformation.

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Markets

August 6, 2026

Wheat extends correction, falls to its lowest level since July 10 Drought, El Niño and the Black Sea in focus

Wheat futures are correcting part of their recent surge on the Chicago Board of Trade, although prices remain clearly above the levels seen at the start of the year. After almost four years of persistent declines, wheat prices have begun to recover, as investors increasingly recognise that the market’s fundamental backdrop is deteriorating. This time, the problem is not driven by a single event, but by the combination of drought, export disruptions in the Black Sea region and growing uncertainty surrounding global fertiliser supplies. Since the beginning of 2026, wheat futures have gained nearly 25%. Importantly, this move has taken place without the kind of sudden supply shock seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The current market structure is considerably more complex. On the one hand, investors are pricing in weaker crop prospects for the current season. On the other, logistical risks surrounding exports from the Black Sea region are rising. It is this combination that is bringing a risk premium back into wheat futures pricing. The Black Sea is becoming a problem again Russian missile strikes on ports in Odesa, together with Ukrainian attacks on vessels and infrastructure in the Sea of Azov, have significantly disrupted exports from the region. At the same time, increased risks to Russian Black Sea ports have pushed up freight and insurance costs. The impact is already visible in the data, with total grain shipments from the Black Sea in late July more than 40% lower than a year earlier. This is particularly important because Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 32% of global wheat trade. Some Ukrainian exports can be redirected by rail or through the Danube to Romanian ports, but these routes are more expensive and have limited capacity. Russia also lacks an easy alternative, as Baltic and Arctic ports are located far from the main producing regions and are not equipped to handle comparable volumes. Drought is beginning to weigh on global production The second major driver behind the recent rally is the worsening weather outlook. Widespread drought has affected large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, while the latest USDA projections point to a meaningful decline in production among most of the world's leading wheat exporters. The key forecasts include: Production among the world's seven largest wheat exporters is expected to decline by around 11% in the 2026/27 marketing year. Global wheat exports are projected to fall by approximately 7%. US wheat production is expected to decline by around 26%, while exports could drop by nearly 15%. Canadian wheat output is forecast to fall by approximately 15%. Australia is expected to reduce wheat plantings by around 12% due to drought conditions and elevated fertiliser costs. Argentina is also expected to produce a smaller crop, although the developing El Niño weather pattern could partially offset some of the downside risks. Although crop prospects in Russia and Ukraine remain relatively favourable compared with other producing regions, the bigger challenge is no longer production itself but the ability to move grain efficiently to global markets. As a result, logistical constraints are becoming almost as important as crop yields in determining the global wheat balance. The market is beginning to price in higher volatility As market fundamentals have weakened, implied volatility in wheat futures has also increased noticeably. Before the outbreak of the latest US-Iran conflict, volatility had remained below its 10-year average. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp spike in volatility, which later eased as hopes for a lasting ceasefire improved sentiment. Since early July, however, volatility has started to climb again. This shift suggests that investors are increasingly pricing in the risk of further supply disruptions, even though physical shortages have yet to materialise. The market is no longer reacting solely to current supply conditions but also to the growing probability that logistical bottlenecks could tighten global availability in the months ahead. The risks extend well beyond wheat itself. Export disruptions also affect Ukrainian corn and sunflower oil, while Russia remains a major supplier of fertilisers, including urea, phosphates and potash. At the same time, continued tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have increased concerns over global fertiliser shipments, potentially raising agricultural production costs far beyond Europe. Why this rally is different from 2022 The current rally bears little resemblance to the supply shock that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At that time, the market reacted to the sudden disruption of exports from one of the world's most important grain-producing regions, only for prices to retreat rapidly as alternative trade routes were established and the Black Sea Grain Initiative restored part of the lost export capacity. Today's environment is different. Although price gains have been more measured, the underlying drivers appear considerably more persistent. Smaller harvests, tighter fertiliser availability, rising transportation costs and ongoing geopolitical tensions are reinforcing one another rather than acting as isolated events. Individually, none of these factors would likely be enough to sustain a major bull market. Together, however, they are gradually tightening the global wheat balance and rebuilding a structural risk premium. If export disruptions in the Black Sea persist and global crop forecasts continue to deteriorate, wheat could remain one of the most fundamentally supported agricultural commodities during the second half of the 2026/27 marketing season. WHEAT chart (D1) Agricultural commodities remain among the most weather-sensitive and volatile asset classes. Wheat has already corrected roughly 10% from its recent highs, but the broader fundamental picture remains intact. Should sentiment stabilise after the recent pullback, the combination of tightening supply expectations and improving fundamentals could encourage buyers to re-enter the market. Source: xStation5 Commercial hedgers are increasing their hedges while funds return to the long side The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights a widening divergence between the two most influential groups in the wheat market. During the week ending July 28, Managed Money increased its long positions by 10,962 contracts, while short positions rose by just 726 contracts. The data indicate that speculative funds are becoming increasingly constructive on wheat, adding exposure in anticipation of further upside. At the same time, commercial participants increased their short positions by 2,646 contracts while reducing long positions by more than 5,000 contracts. This is a classic pattern in agricultural futures markets: higher prices encourage producers and grain merchants to lock in future sales, while speculative capital begins pricing in a tightening supply outlook. Importantly, this type of positioning should not automatically be interpreted as a bearish signal. Historically, commercial hedging often increases during the early stages of sustained bull markets as producers use higher prices to secure forward revenues. Funds are still rebuilding positions, leaving room for further upside Despite the recent wave of buying, speculative positioning remains far from stretched. Managed Money currently holds roughly 85,000 long contracts against approximately 93,000 short contracts, leaving the group with a modest net short position. In other words, recent buying appears to represent the early stages of position rebuilding rather than the final phase of speculative enthusiasm. From a market perspective, this is an important distinction. If global crop prospects continue to deteriorate and export disruptions in the Black Sea region persist, speculative funds still have considerable room to cover remaining short positions and eventually move into a net long stance. Historically, this gradual transition from net short to net long positioning has often provided one of the strongest sources of momentum during multi-week rallies in CBOT wheat futures. Source: CFTC, CoT (28 July)

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Markets

August 6, 2026

Arabica Coffee Futures Settle Below $3.1

Arabica coffee futures have fluctuated in recent weeks, before consolidating below $3.10 per pound to their lowest level in a month. Still, the market continued to be supported by tight supplies, uncertainty over the quality of Brazil's harvest, coffee growers' reluctance to sell, and weather-related risks associated with El Niño. Although a record Brazilian harvest of more than 70 million bags is expected this season, the balance between supply and demand remains tight, particularly in the higher-quality. Traders remain concerned that rains in key producing regions, including Minas Gerais and São Paulo, during June and July, may have affected the quality of part of the crop. ICE arabica coffee fell to a 2.5-year low of 251,417 bags as of August 7, down sharply from the 754,516 bags last year. At the same time, Brazilian producers continue to sell gradually, limiting immediate coffee availability. Meanwhile, the developing "super" El Niño remains a key risk to next year's harvest.

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Euro: Recovery stalls near 1.1550 resistance against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank highlights that the Euro is slightly softer versus the Dollar after touching levels last seen in mid-June, with fundamentals still supportive as yield spreads turn. Spot has nearly converged with their fair value based on the 2-year Germany–US spread. Further EUR/USD gains likely need a shift in relative central bank expectations or improved sentiment, with near-term range seen at 1.1500–1.1600. Euro aligns with yield-spread fair value "The EUR is entering Thursday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD, trading defensively following an overnight push to a fresh local high reaching levels last seen in mid-June." "Fundamentals remain supportive and the EUR’s recent recovery has closely mirrored the turn in yield spreads. Spot EUR has largely closed the gap to our FV estimate narrowly based on the 2Y Germany-US yield spread, which currently stands at 1.1538." "Further gains will likely require some further shift in the outlook for relative central bank policy or an improvement in sentiment, as risk reversals reveal a continued premium for protection against EUR weakness." "In data, the second-tier euro area retail sales figures have offered a slight disappointment for June but were balanced by stronger German factory orders—neither release appears to have had any impact on spot." "Bullish—the latest recovery in the RSI is important, climbing into bullish territory with a push to the low 60s. The gains in spot have delivered a fresh multi-week high reaching levels last seen in mid-June, however we continue to note the persistence of near-term resistance around 1.1550. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Indian Rupee: Foreign inflows to aid INR against US Dollar – ING

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song note that the Indian Rupee (INR) has given back much of its June gains as US–Iran tensions and rising Oil prices hurt sentiment. However, they remain constructive on INR, citing FCNR deposit measures and expected inflows above USD 50 billion by September. Potential global bond index inclusion and rotation from AI-driven equities are seen reviving foreign flows into India. FCNR deposits and index inclusion aid INR "The Indian rupee has unwound a significant portion of its June gains as renewed tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with steadily rising oil prices, weighed on sentiment." "We remain constructive on the INR, supported by recent measures to attract FCNR deposits." "We expect inflows to exceed USD 50bn by the time the scheme closes in September, helping to turn the anticipated balance-of-payments deficit into a surplus." "In addition, potential inclusion in major global bond indices, alongside a rotation away from AI-driven equity markets, could revive foreign inflows into India, which has seen relatively muted investor interest despite robust nominal GDP growth." "Together, these factors should support capital inflows and provide an additional tailwind for t

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Banks

August 6, 2026

United Kingdom: Confidence may unlock household spending – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman analyses United Kingdom demand prospects under Prime Minister Burnham’s shift from “securonomics” to “vibonomics”. The report argues that elevated household saving and weak confidence leave scope for a temporary consumption boost if sentiment improves. However, it stresses that lasting growth in the UK will depend on structural reforms to productivity, investment, housing, energy and real wages. Confidence, savings and UK demand "The upside is that it all leaves a buffer that stronger confidence could partly unlock. In hindsight it poses an awkward question for Starmer and Reeves. By repeatedly stressing security, discipline and repair, did they inadvertently reinforce the sense that households needed to remain defensive?" "Looking ahead, we expect the saving ratio to remain at around current levels, averaging 9.4% over the next two years, as we expect continued cautiousness amidst structural uncertainty, with interest rates remaining at elevated levels. This means that we expect the build-up of yet another £150 billion in savings." "We estimate that every one percentage point decline in the household saving ratio is equivalent to roughly 0.5% of GDP in additional demand once import leakages are taken into account. A sustained fall of around three percentage points, bringing the saving ratio back towards its pre-pandemic average, could therefore raise the level of GDP by about 1.5%. Spread over the period to the 2029 election, that could make a 1.0% growth economy temporarily look more like a 1.5% economy." "Burnham can probably improve the mood and may even buy himself a few stronger quarters. But he cannot vibe the UK out of its consumption slump. For that, the autumn reform agenda will need to tackle the structural constraints holding back both supply and living standards."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Gains hinge on 1.3970 against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but modestly outperforming other majors, trading close to their fair value estimate around 1.40. With CAD-specific news limited, USD/CAD remains driven by external factors and stabilized US/Canada spreads. Technicals stay USD-bearish, with downside focus on a break below 1.3970/80 and fading rallies toward 1.41. CAD trades near fair value versus Dollar "The CAD is effectively flat against the USD and outperforming most of the major currencies modestly on the day as a result." "CAD-specific news remains scant and the trend in funds remains largely contingent on external developments. US/Canada spreads have stabilized and broader risk appetite remains positive—while the tech/AI cycle holds." "The trend in relative US/Canada data surprises has turned a little more positive for the CAD in recent weeks. Trade concerns remain a background niggle ahead of the August 19 deadline for President Trump’s latest tariff salvo." "Our fair value estimate for spot sits just above 1.40 this morning (1.4006), suggesting that the CAD is more or less right where it should be. " "Bearish—There is little change in the CAD’s technical position. Broader chart pointers continue to lean USD-bearish after the negative technical close on the week through last Friday." "The CAD still needs to secure a break under 1.3970/80 (former high/retracement support) to drive the next phase of gains, however. Technicals suggest fading moderate USD gains to the 1.41 zone."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Copper: Tight supply keeps prices elevated – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Copper prices trading above $14,000/t on the LME and near record levels on Comex, driven by metal diversion into the US ahead of potential tariff decisions. Tight physical markets, low inventories outside the US and ongoing supply-side challenges are seen as supporting prices and possibly increasing volatility in coming sessions. Record-level prices on supply constraints "In base metals, copper prices also extended gains, with LME copper trading above $14,000/t and Comex futures remaining close to record levels. The market continues to be driven by the diversion of metal into the US ahead of potential tariff decisions. This is leaving availability tighter elsewhere and supporting prices across global exchanges." "Improving sentiment around the Middle East provided a boost to industrial metals. Hopes for progress in negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have weighed on the US dollar. Lower energy prices have reduced inflation concerns and improved the outlook for global growth-sensitive assets." "Copper fundamentals remain supportive. Tight physical markets, low inventories outside the US and ongoing supply-side challenges should keep prices well supported. Developments in US tariff policy could also trigger increased volatility in the near term." "Aluminium and zinc also moved higher alongside copper."

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Energies

August 6, 2026

Natural gas tumbles as US EIA inventories rise

U.S. natural gas inventories, according to the EIA, increased by 33 billion cubic feet (bcf), compared with market expectations of 30 bcf and the previous reading of 28 bcf. US natural gas inventories increased by 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the latest EIA report, compared with a market expectation of 30 bcf and a previous build of 28 bcf . On a year-over-year basis, inventories were 12 bcf lower . At the same time, storage levels remained 195 bcf above the five-year average of 2,922 bcf , while total working gas stayed within the historical five-year range. Looking ahead, weakening cooling demand and an expected increase in natural gas supply from the Permian Basin point to softer market fundamentals toward the end of the summer. On the other hand, the next five days could bring the final significant nationwide boost in cooling-related natural gas demand this season as hot weather persists. NATGAS chart (D1 timeframe) Source: xStation5

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Energies

August 6, 2026

Oil climbs back above $80 per barrel

Oil recovers on Iran-Oman talks and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries Oil prices are moving higher during Thursday's session as investors once again focus on geopolitical risks affecting global crude supply. Market attention is centered on negotiations between Iran and Oman over the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reports of new Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers. Additional support for prices comes from Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian refining infrastructure, adding to uncertainty over supply. Against this geopolitical backdrop, Saudi Arabia slightly lowered the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude for September deliveries to Asia. While the move points to continued competition for Asian demand, it has been largely overshadowed by geopolitical developments, which remain the primary driver of oil prices. Key facts Brent crude rises toward $81 per barrel , while WTI trades close to $76 per barrel . Negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz remain the key market focus, although the outcome is still uncertain. Ukraine carried out drone strikes on two Russian refineries and vessels involved in transporting Russian crude, increasing supply disruption risks. Iran-Oman talks remain the market's key focus The biggest driver of oil prices is currently the ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman over shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Foreign Ministry, the parties have reached an agreement on the proposed shipping route, with a joint statement expected after consultations with the remaining participants conclude. According to Reuters sources, the proposed deal could give Iran greater control over vessels entering the Persian Gulf. For the oil market, this could pave the way for a partial restoration of traffic through one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. However, investors remain cautious after previous attempts to reach a lasting agreement failed. Strait of Hormuz remains critical for global oil supply Before the conflict erupted in late February, roughly 20% of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, any developments related to the security of the waterway or the potential resumption of normal shipping activity have an immediate impact on energy prices. At the same time, shipping data indicate that crude oil and condensate exports from Gulf countries remain approximately 40% below pre-conflict levels, highlighting that physical supply has yet to fully recover. Houthi attacks increase the geopolitical risk premium Fresh reports of Houthi attacks targeting Saudi oil tankers operating in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have added another layer of uncertainty to the market. Saudi Arabia has not officially confirmed the incidents, but the reports alone have contributed to a higher geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. Analysts note that previous Houthi attacks have not significantly disrupted global oil or natural gas supplies. Nevertheless, investors remain concerned that a broader escalation could eventually translate into tangible export disruptions across the region. Iran warns of potential attacks on regional energy infrastructure According to Reuters, Iran has warned Gulf states that any new U.S. strike on Iranian territory would trigger retaliation against strategic energy infrastructure across the region. Such statements reinforce concerns over the security of Middle Eastern oil supplies and continue to support the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices. Ukraine targets Russian refineries Developments in Russia are also influencing market sentiment. Ukraine announced drone strikes on the Bashneft-Novoil and Slavneft-Yanos refineries, as well as vessels used to transport Russian crude in the Black Sea. Russian authorities said the refinery in Yaroslavl was hit during one of the largest drone attacks since the beginning of the war, causing a fire at the facility. Although the immediate impact on global oil supply appears limited, the market continues to view repeated attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as a factor that increases supply risks. OIL technical outlook (D1 chart) Oil prices have rebounded above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downward move, near $80.6 per barrel . For bulls, the next key resistance stands at $87.3 , corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement , a level reinforced by previous price reactions and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50, orange line) . On the downside, the psychological $80 per barrel level remains the first important support, followed by the recent swing lows near $78.5 per barrel . Source: xStation5

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Cryptocurrencies

August 6, 2026

Bitcoin Near $64000 as ETF Inflows Return

Key takeaways Bitcoin has moved from approximately $62988 on 1 August to around $64500–$64800 on 6 August, without establishing a clear trend beyond its recent range. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $626 million of net inflows between 3 and 5 August. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for approximately $478.5 million, or 76% of that total. Strategy sold 1638 BTC for $104.73 million between 27 July and 2 August, leaving the company with 842138 BTC. Researchers estimate that the Coldcard incident affected more than 5200 addresses and involved approximately 1816 BTC, worth around $114 million to $116 million. These figures remain preliminary. Bitcoin hovers near $64500 amid range-bound trading, as renewed US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows offset corporate sales and recent wallet security concerns. Bitcoin is trading close to $64500 on 6 August, compared with roughly $63000 on 1 August, while remaining inside a relatively narrow short-term range. The market has absorbed renewed US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, Strategy’s latest BTC sale, the Coldcard seed-generation flaw and weaker mining conditions without a decisive breakout. Options markets also show subdued expectations, with 30-day implied-volatility measures close to 36%. This calm describes current market pricing rather than an absence of risk. Why Bitcoin remains calm near $65000 Bitcoin remains calm because the positive and negative forces affecting the market are currently offsetting one another. ETF inflows provide observable demand through regulated products, while Strategy’s sale and other holders’ transactions add supply. At the same time, the Coldcard incident has raised security concerns without revealing a weakness in the Bitcoin protocol itself. Daily price data illustrate this balance. Bitcoin recorded approximately $63000 on 1 August, $62500 on 3 August, $63600 on 4 August and $64000 on 5 August before moving toward $64500 on 6 August. The recovery is visible, but the movement has not yet become a sustained breakout. Options markets provide stronger evidence for the description of a calm market. Bitcoin’s BVIV 30-day implied-volatility index fell to approximately 36% on 4 August, its lowest reading since 31 May, while the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index was also close to 36 on 6 August. Low implied volatility means options markets are pricing comparatively limited movement, but it does not predict the direction of the next move. Bitcoin ETF inflows return, but demand is concentrated US spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net inflows, although much of the new capital is entering one fund. The products recorded $170.1 million of net inflows on 3 August, $211.5 million on 4 August and $244.4 million on 5 August. The combined three-session total was $626 million. BlackRock’s IBIT received $111.4 million, $170.3 million and $196.8 million during those sessions. Its combined $478.5 million represented approximately 76% of the group’s total inflows. The figures therefore show renewed demand for Bitcoin ETF exposure, but they also demonstrate that this demand remains concentrated. The concentration is also visible at the other end of the market. Hashdex announced that its DEFI Bitcoin ETF, which had approximately $14.7 million under management on 30 July, will stop trading after 17 August and liquidate its remaining Bitcoin. Investors who still hold shares are expected to receive cash distributions around 28 August. Given the fund’s small size, the direct supply effect should be limited, but the closure shows that positive industry-wide flows do not benefit every product equally. Positive Bitcoin ETF inflows can coexist with a nearly unchanged Bitcoin price. New demand from funds may be absorbed by corporate sales, profit-taking or other spot-market supply before it produces a larger price movement. Strategy sold 1,638 BTC but retained a substantial position Strategy’s latest sale was a visible supply event, but it did not represent a broad exit from Bitcoin. The company sold 1638 BTC between 27 July and 2 August for aggregate proceeds of $104.73 million. The average sale price was $63957 per BTC. Of the proceeds, $52.4 million was used to fund dividends on Strategy’s preferred shares and $52.3 million funded repurchases of STRC stock. The transaction was therefore part of the company’s capital-management programme rather than a sale carried out solely in response to short-term Bitcoin price movements. Following the transaction, Strategy reported holdings of 842138 BTC with an aggregate purchase cost of $63.51 billion. Its average acquisition price across the remaining position was $75419 per BTC. Further sales could create additional spot supply, but the scale and timing of any future transactions remain uncertain. The Coldcard incident concerns wallet software, not Bitcoin’s protocol The Coldcard incident resulted from weaknesses in seed generation on affected firmware rather than a breach of the Bitcoin network. Coinkite warned that seeds generated on specified versions of its Mk2, Mk3, Mk4, Mk5 and Q devices could contain less randomness than intended. Fixed firmware has now been released for the affected models and software tracks. On-chain researchers estimated that four waves of suspicious transactions moved approximately 1816 BTC from more than 5200 addresses. The estimated value was around $114 million on 3 August and approximately $116 million in a later TRM Labs assessment. The totals are based partly on transaction-pattern analysis and should therefore be treated as preliminary rather than final confirmed losses. Installing corrected firmware prevents the same problem from affecting seeds generated in the future, but it does not add randomness to an existing seed. Users with affected seeds must create a new seed using corrected firmware and migrate their funds. The event highlights implementation and private-key risks associated with self-custody, but it does not indicate that Bitcoin’s consensus rules or underlying cryptography were compromised. The incident has also prompted a broader review of Bitcoin-related software. An AI-assisted campaign involving 16 developers reported 4962 findings across 390 wallets, cryptographic libraries and infrastructure projects, including 85 classified as critical and 635 as high severity. These are early, partly automated findings that still require validation, and they should not be described as 85 confirmed vulnerabilities in Bitcoin Core. Updating affected Coldcard firmware does not repair an existing vulnerable seed. Coinkite advises generating a replacement seed on corrected firmware, verifying the new wallet and moving the funds carefully, beginning with a small test transaction. Bitcoin mining difficulty points to pressure on miners Bitcoin’s mining data show weaker competition among miners than at the market’s previous peak. The current network difficulty is approximately 126.23 trillion following a 0.74% downward adjustment. That is around 14% below the highest level recorded in 2026 and 19.1% below the November 2025 record. Mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks to keep the average interval between blocks close to 10 minutes. When computing power leaves the network and blocks are produced more slowly, the next adjustment reduces the difficulty faced by the miners that remain. The latest decline therefore indicates reduced mining competition during the previous adjustment period. Difficulty was also approximately 1.1% below its year-earlier level, only the second year-on-year decline reported in Bitcoin’s history. Mining analysts have linked the contraction to weak mining revenues, regional disruptions and the movement of some energy and capital toward artificial-intelligence and high-performance-computing infrastructure. Lower difficulty eases conditions for remaining miners, but it also reflects continuing pressure on the economics of the sector. .Institutional Flows and Bitcoin Supply Institutional demand currently provides mixed signals for Bitcoin. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently recorded positive net flows following an earlier period of withdrawals, with BlackRock’s fund accounting for a significant share of the new capital. These flows are an observable measure of demand through regulated investment products, but their direction can change between trading sessions. Strategy’s sale of 1683 BTC introduced additional supply to the market. The transaction was valued at approximately $105 million and followed two other reported sales in recent weeks. Although the company still holds the largest corporate Bitcoin position, further sales could affect short-term liquidity, particularly during periods of lower trading activity. The reported Coinkite wallet breach also added a security-related event to the current market environment. Bitcoin worth almost $90 million was reportedly stolen, highlighting operational risks associated with wallet infrastructure and private-key management rather than a change to the Bitcoin protocol itself. Price Structure and Historical Market Patterns Bitcoin is currently trading below the True Market Mean, while the AVIV Ratio remains slightly below zero, indicating that the market price is below the model’s estimated average cost basis for active investors. However, the ratio remains above the −1.0 and −1.5 standard-deviation thresholds, meaning that the chart does not yet indicate the degree of valuation pressure observed during some previous bear-market phases. The corresponding −1.5 standard-deviation price band is currently located at approximately $45,000. Historically, moves toward this band have coincided with periods of pronounced market stress and relatively low valuations, although they have not consistently identified the precise timing or level of Bitcoin’s cycle bottom. Previous four-year cycles indicate that a recovery phase could begin toward the end of the year, but this pattern is descriptive rather than predictive. Until Bitcoin breaks above its main resistance levels alongside stronger spot-market activity, the price structure is likely to remain defined by consolidation between established support and resistance zones. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index remains neutral at slightly above 50. Meanwhile, the MACD crossover could point to weakening momentum unless buying demand strengthens from current levels. Based on the price action and key Fibonacci retracement levels, $60000 and $57000 represent the nearest support areas. From a price-action perspective, $66500 is an important resistance zone, defined by two previous local highs and the upper boundary of an ascending triangle formation. A decisive break above $66500 could open the way for a test of $73000, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to move above this resistance area, the probability of another test of $60000 could increase. Source: xStation, Tradingview Source: Checkonchain

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Markets

August 6, 2026

Chart of the day: DE40 hold near ATH! Siemens and Deutsche Telekom shine with earnings!

German DAX futures (DE40) remain near all-time highs despite a correction in Asia, with marginal drops appearing more technical in nature. Disappointing results from memory makers (SanDisk, Western Digital) brought pressure back to AI-related companies, but the European session continues to be supported by solid earnings reports from traditional domestic businesses. Technical Analysis: DE40 (D1) DAX futures are pulling back 0.25%, even as the cash index gains another 0.1% today. DE40 remains in a strong uptrend, trading above three key exponential moving averages on the D1 timeframe (10-EMA, 30-EMA, 100-EMA). The correction is justified both by a breakout to a new peak near the upper boundary of the volatility range typical in recent months (yellow rectangle) and the RSI reaching overbought territory for the first time in a month. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest upward wave (around 26,100) remains key support, though the primary test for the trend would be a pull back toward the 10-EMA (yellow). A close above these levels should signal a firmly established bullish posture and readiness to defend the trend. Source: xStation5 What Is Driving DE40 Volatility Today? German Industrial Orders: New orders in the German manufacturing sector rose 3.1% MoM (+6.5% YoY) in June 2026, driven by large-scale contracts in machinery (+12.7%) and electronics (+22.7%). However, excluding large-scale orders, the indicator dropped 0.5% MoM. Domestic demand surged 7.8%, while orders from the euro area fell 14.0%, and May data was heavily revised down from +1.9% to +0.3%. Deutsche Telekom (+5.5%): As the 5th largest company in the DAX index, Deutsche Telekom beat market expectations in Q2 2026, reporting adjusted EBITDAaL of €11.8 billion. In response to market volatility and strong performance, the company expanded its share buyback program by €3 billion to up to €5 billion. Additionally, free cash flow guidance was raised to around €20 billion, supported by robust results from T-Mobile US. Despite a 13.4% order intake decline at T-Systems, shares gained 5.5%, leading the German benchmark today. Siemens Pullback (-5%): On the flip side, the DAX’s largest constituent, Siemens, is dragging on the index despite posting record quarterly industrial profit and order intake (profit: +25% to €3.52B; orders: +13% to €27.90B). The primary growth driver was the Digital Industries segment (+44% profit), fueled by industrial AI demand in the US and China, prompting a full-year EPS guidance raise to €11.20–€11.50. The stock decline is likely driven by profit-taking after hitting all-time highs near €290, combined with broader negative sentiment surrounding AI-linked equities today.

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA uneasy pause – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the cash rate at 4.35% at its 11 August meeting, with no further hikes this year. Q2 core inflation and short-term expectations have eased, while the labour market has softened. However, the bank warns that another rate hike in Q4 remains a risk if demand does not slow sufficiently. RBA seen on extended hold stance "We continue to expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its 11 August meeting (see RBA – Caution rules the day). Q2 trimmed mean inflation held steady at 0.8% q/q – as we had expected – and below the RBA’s prior forecast (0.9%). This, together with the recent retracement in oil prices, should take the pressure off the RBA to tighten policy further in the near term." "Governor Bullock, in her most recent speech, referenced the unfavourable starting point for the economy in terms of excess demand and a positive output gap as reasons to remain cautious. We would point out that economic momentum appears to be slowing, evidenced by a softening labour market amid a rising unemployment rate in June, although stable job vacancies and robust employment growth still indicate some tightness in the labour market. Short-term inflation expectations fell in July below pre-war levels, but are likely too high for the RBA’s comfort." "Housing prices posted a sizeable decline in July, likely reflecting the lagged impact of the cash rate hikes, and lingering uncertainty over budgetary tax changes." "Our base case remains that the RBA is done with rate hikes in the foreseeable future. The risk to our view is skewed towards another RBA rate hike in Q4, if the central bank remains unconvinced that demand is slowing sufficiently to contain underlying price pressures." "The decline in oil prices in June could partially account for the rebound in consumer confidence alongside robust growth in household spending in June, particularly in air travel and recreational spending. The services PMI also rebounded to a six-month high in July, led by growing new orders and output price inflation rising at levels last seen in April/May."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

US Dollar: Wait-and-see mood before payrolls – ING

ING’s FX Strategist Francesco Pesole notes improved Gulf-related risk sentiment has weighed slightly on the Dollar, but stable Federal Reserve rate expectations remain supportive. With US payrolls due tomorrow, he argues that caution in markets and limited changes in Fed pricing should keep the Dollar in a broad range, even as data and Fed communication outweigh moves in Oil and geopolitical headlines. Risk-on tone but range-bound dollar "News of a deal between Iran and Oman to open a safe shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz has kept the FX market in risk-on mode, favouring a rotation from the dollar to higher-beta currencies. Even so, G10 moves have been contained this week, likely because tomorrow’s US payrolls report remains the key catalyst and a notoriously difficult one to predict." "Expectations for upcoming Fed meetings are little changed since July’s announcement, with 14-17bp consistently priced for September and 30-35bp for December. This has come during a week in which Brent fell $15/bbl: a clear testament that US rate expectations are currently being driven far more by data and Fed communication than by energy prices." "Speaking of data, ADP payrolls came in a bit soft at 44k and ISM services rose less than expected to 54.1 yesterday. The services employment subindex plummeted to 47.5, which – according to our macro team – points to some mild downside risks for tomorrow’s payrolls." "Markets are also waiting for the next headlines on US-Iran negotiations. There appears to be little pessimism left in FX markets, and positive headlines on that topic may not generate sustainable USD weakness. With payrolls looming tomorrow, a wait-and-see stance may keep volatility contained and the dollar broadly range-bound."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Indian Rupee: Gradual strengthening path outlined – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan expects USD/INR to grind lower over the next 3–6 months towards 94.00, before rebounding to 96.00 in the next calendar year. The bank links this trajectory to stronger Dollar inflows from RBI’s FX measures, tempered by IPO-related FDI outflows and limited scope for sharp Indian Rupee strength. Rupee path shaped by flows "From an FX perspective, we forecast USD/INR grinding lower over the next 3-6 months towards the 94.00 handle, before rebounding towards 96.00 next calendar year." "Net-net, the key takeaway from an FX perspective is that sharp INR strength sounds unlikely." "We now raise our forecast for inflows from RBI’s FX measures to US$87bn from US$60bn previously, with the bulk of the flows concentrated in the September quarter." "Nonetheless, with IPO announcements picking up and with that a likely rise in FDI repatriation outflows, we think this will be an important offset to stronger Dollar inflows." "Net-net, we are forecasting USD/INR to move lower towards 94.00 over the next 3-6 months, before bouncing higher to the 96.00 handle next calendar year."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Euro: Oil-price sensitivity and war-end effects – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that lower Oil prices can initially restrain the Euro (EUR) by reducing European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations. Over time, however, a lasting end to the Iran conflict could support the currency through stronger Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and improved real economic activity. Oil, rates and Euro reaction "Over the past few weeks, I have argued on several occasions that the euro might not directly benefit from an end to the war, should interest rate expectations for the ECB ease as oil prices fall. But this does not apply solely to the euro. Since the start of the Iran conflict, the trend in interest rate expectations for the major G10 central banks can, in fact, be divided into two groups:" "The greater the dependence on energy imports, the stronger the reaction of central bank interest rate expectations to a change in the oil price. In other words, if oil prices rise, so do expectations of interest rate hikes. This applies to the ECB, as well as to the BoE and the Swiss National Bank. But this also means that these expectations will be priced out again should the oil price fall." "We thus have two arguments: net energy exporters are likely to suffer deteriorating terms of trade when the oil price falls, while their interest rate expectations are less dependent on the oil price. This is likely to be the main reason why the inverse relationship (i.e. appreciation due to lower energy dependence in the event of falling oil prices) is weaker than when oil prices rise." "One point I have omitted so far is that the real economies of net energy importers would also benefit from a lasting end to the Iran conflict. Leading indicators such as the PMIs are likely to react first. But this reaction is likely to take longer than the reaction seen with interest rate expectations."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

British Pound: Gains capped below 1.3555 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3469 after briefly touching 1.3486, with short-term momentum only slightly firmer. The pair is expected to trade in a higher 1.3445–1.3495 range rather than embark on a strong rally. Over 1–3 weeks, there is still limited scope for a move toward 1.3555 as long as support at 1.3410 holds. Pound holds gains within tight band "24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected GBP to “consolidate between 1.3425 and 1.3470.” However, GBP edged higher to 1.3486 before closing slightly higher at 1.3469 (+0.12%). While upward momentum has picked up slightly, it is more likely to result in GBP trading within a higher range of 1.3445/1.3495 rather than signaling the start of a sustained advance." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” Yesterday (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450), we indicated that “upward momentum has since eased, but as long as 1.3385 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” We continue to hold the same view, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level to 1.3410 from 1.3385."

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Banks

August 6, 2026

Gold: Breakout extends as yields ease – OCBC

OCBC’s Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight a sharp rebound in Gold as easing Middle East tensions weighed on Oil and US Treasury yields, softening the US Dollar. Technical buying and short covering accelerated once resistance broke, while central bank demand from the Bank of Korea added support. Near-term momentum is mildly bullish, with key resistance at 4333 and 4393 and support at 4160 and 4077. Gold breakout on softer yields "Gold rose sharply overnight as easing Middle East tensions drove oil prices lower while US Treasury yields and USD eased. Market expectations for Fed to hike in Sep has eased. About 55% probability priced (vs. 66% a week ago). The sharp move in gold accelerated after prices cleared recent resistance, triggering technical buying and short covering." "Gold’s strength suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD." "News that the Bank of Korea is preparing to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years and that they had recently begun buying gold ETF may also have provided a modest sentiment boost, although the scale and timing of its purchases remain unclear." "Near-term momentum has improved, with Friday’s upcoming US payrolls report now key to whether the decline in yields, USD and gold’s breakout can be sustained." "Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose to near overbought conditions. Resistance at 4333 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4393 (100 DMA). Support at 4160 (50 DMA), 4077 (21 DMA)."

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Markets

August 6, 2026

Iron Ore Rebounds on Fresh Supply Concerns

Iron ore futures climbed to around CNY 715 per ton, recovering from 15-month lows as renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions resurfaced. A two-day strike is scheduled at BHP’s Port Hedland operations in Western Australia this weekend, despite progress in negotiations between the mining company and labor unions. The industrial action is expected to delay up to 16 iron ore shipments during the two-day period. BHP exports roughly $80 million worth of iron ore each day through Port Hedland, the world’s largest iron ore export terminal. Meanwhile, demand-side fundamentals remained weak, with a prolonged downturn in steel demand and deteriorating steel margins in top consumer China continuing to pressure the market. Hot metal production has fallen for several consecutive weeks as steel mills scale back output, while sluggish steel consumption has further reduced appetite for raw material purchases.

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Markets

August 6, 2026

Nickel Falls Near 1-Month Low

Nickel traded around $16,700 per tonne in August, retreating to its lowest level since mid-July as expectations of improved Indonesian supply weighed on prices. The decline followed reports that Indonesia may further relax supplementary RKAB nickel ore quotas, with a major miner expected to receive additional allocations that would significantly increase its 2026 RKAB quota and support downstream smelter feedstock availability in the second half of the year. Prices also came under pressure as easing concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reduced sulfur costs, lowering input cost pressures for nickel processing. Meanwhile, expectations that Indonesia will continue to manage nickel ore supply through RKAB quotas, along with elevated production costs, continued to provide some support.

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Markets

August 6, 2026

U.K. indices scale new heights

It may seem like a quiet start to the day, but in reality, there is a huge amount going on underneath the surface. The oil price is hovering just below $80 per barrel, after Iran said that it had reached an agreement with Oman about the route for shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, this is a prerequisite to opening the Strait freely to commercial traffic. Iran has also said that the US has agreed to return to the Memorandum of Understanding pledges, which could bring an end to the recent flare up of tensions. Caution in the oil price today is a sign that the market needs confirmation from the White House that this is all true, and the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not a false dawn. President Trump will also need to state his approval for the market to believe it. For now, Brent is likely to remain in a tight range below $80 per barrel. However, confirmation from the US could send Brent back towards $75. The UK market is also in focus today. Diageo will report results later this morning, Next is higher again today, after rising 5% after its results on Wednesday. The FTSE 100 is at a one year high, as it gains from a strong environment for risk. This is a reminder that the recent global stock market rally is not only about tech. Added to this, the FTSE 250 made an all-time intra-day high on Thursday. This comes after stronger PMI data for July suggests that the UK economy is gaining momentum as we move through Q3. Overall, UK stocks could benefit from strong upward momentum for earnings in the UK. The market expected relatively modest growth for UK Q2 earnings of 10%. However, due to incredibly strong earnings for the oil majors including BP and Shell, the final earnings growth rate for the UK could be well above the 10% expected. We have also seen stronger growth for Next and HSBC, which may also boost earnings growth this season. The tech stock rally was on pause on Wednesday, the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, stemming a rare rally when the index posted gains of more than 1% for four straight days. This downturn was driven by sharp declines for SpaceX and AMD, after their earnings disappointed expectations. There were also large declines for chip stocks and for some hyperscalers, as investors lost enthusiasm for the AI investment trade. The sell off in the US impacted Asia, South Korea’s Kospi dropped more than 4% today, and Japan’s Nikkei fell nearly 1%. So, is the tech stock rally that started last week, and marked an end to the June/ July sell off, over already? We stand by our view that the sell off is short term, and a pause rather than an abrupt shift in direction. SpaceX is higher by more than 1% in overnight trading and could attempt a recovery later today. SpaceX is worth watching closely today as it was the worst performer on the Nasdaq 100 on Wednesday, it is also a highly volatile stock, so if it recovers it could be a sign of stronger overall sentiment for the index. European stocks have opened higher, and futures prices are pointing to a mixed open for the US indices later today, the Dow and the S&P 500 are expected to open higher, while the Nasdaq may open down 0.2%. The market could be directionless on Thursday as we lead up to some major event risk, including Friday’s NFP report. The market is expecting a reading of 80k for payrolls and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.2%. Payrolls are always important, but they are taking on extra significance since the Fed has dropped forward guidance. If every meeting is a ‘live’ meeting, then a stronger ready could boost the chance of a rate hike, push up Treasury yields, increase demand for the dollar and potentially weigh on equities and risk sentiment. However, the reverse is also true. A weak reading for July payrolls may suggest that rates are on hold for the long term, and we could see a sharp reduction in September rate hike expectations, which currently stand at 54%. USD/JPY is one of the most sensitive currency pairs to the payrolls report. It has moved sideways since last week’s intervention. The payrolls will be a major test for the yen; can its recent manufactured strength withstand a stronger than expected payrolls reading? If not, then the market could have a major problem on its hands, especially if USD/JPY surges and Treasury and Japanese bond yields surge.

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Energies

August 6, 2026

Gasoline Hovers Near 4-Week Low

US gasoline futures fell to $2.82 per gallon, hovering near a four-week low as traders priced in improving supply prospects. Iran announced an agreement with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, raising expectations of more energy flows through the key waterway. Iranian officials said a joint statement was being finalized, with the route expected to remain operational for two to four months. However, they stressed that the arrangement does not amount to a full reopening of the Strait. President Donald Trump also said talks with Tehran were ongoing. However, supply concerns persisted elsewhere. In Russia, diesel and gasoline exports plunged 60% in July after Ukrainian strikes disrupted refinery operations, prompting Moscow to extend its gasoline export ban through January 2027. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories fell by 1.643 million barrels in the week ended July 31, exceeding expectations and leaving stocks 7% below the five-year seasonal average.

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Energies

August 6, 2026

Heating Oil Trades Near 3-Week Low

US heating oil futures fell below $3.80 per gallon, trading near a three-week low, as traders priced in improved supply prospects. Iran announced an agreement with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting expectations that more energy exports could flow through the strategic waterway. Iranian officials said a joint statement was being finalized and that the route was expected to remain operational for two to four months. They stressed, however, that the arrangement did not constitute a full reopening of the Strait. President Donald Trump also said talks with Tehran were ongoing. Even so, supply concerns lingered elsewhere. In Russia, diesel and gasoline exports plunged 60% in July after Ukrainian strikes disrupted refinery operations, prompting Moscow to extend its gasoline export ban through January 2027. Meanwhile, EIA data showed distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.473 million barrels in the week ended July 31.

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Earnings

August 5, 2026

SpaceX Earnings Review

SpaceX share price set to nose dive, even as results exceed expectations SpaceX’s results were released on Tuesday evening after another blistering rally that saw the S&P 500 reach a record high. Risk was back on, chip stocks soared and SpaceX’s share price jumped 9%. But, while S&P 500 futures are pointing to further gains later on Wednesday, SpaceX is nursing a hefty loss in afterhours trading, and could fall more than 7% today, as investors were not convinced by its first earnings report since its IPO. On the surface, the headlines were compelling: a 92% increase in revenue in Q2 compared to a year earlier. Revenues were $7.81bn, beating estimates of $6.93bn. The company posted a net loss of $541mn for Q2, which is nearly half the loss from a year ago when it hit $1bn. The company posted revenue beats for all the main sectors of the business. Space posted revenues of $962mn, connectivity was $4.29bn, while AI posted revenues of $2.56bn, easily beating the $2.18bn expected. The company also said that it is on target to reach $100 bn of revenue by the end of this year, after signing a number for new deals in recent months. This includes $6.7bn of new cloud computing revenue for Q3. Capex concerns sends the share price south Even with these strong numbers, the share price is down more than 7% in post-market trading. Investors are concerned about the massive surge in capex spending. It rose sixfold to $18.37bn, exceeding estimates of $13.22bn. The concern for investors is how fast expenditure growth is outpacing revenue growth. SpaceX’s AI investment was $15.83bn last quarter, in the first half of this year, AI investment amounted to $23.55bn. While SpaceX’s expenditure numbers are huge, the longer-term stock market reaction will depend on whether this rate of investment is affordable and worthwhile? The company’s cash pile has surged due to its recent IPO. It now has cash of $93.5bn, up from $24.7bn at the end of Q1. However, the company has increased its debt and leasing agreements to $36.8bn. If SpaceX continues to repeat AI spend at the Q2 rate, its healthy cash flow position could soon deteriorate. Starlink not enough to prop up the stock There were some other pockets of good news in these results. Starlink, the most profitable part of SpaceX, boosted subscriber growth to 12mn last quarter, which is double what it was a year ago. However, average revenue per user was much lower than 2025, at $66 compared to $85. Starlink is now a volume game for SpaceX, and going forward the company will need to see a large pick up in subscriber growth to justify the reduction in revenue per user. The company was very bullish about the future of Starlink and its potential to deliver the majority of the world’s internet in the future. While Starlink is a profitable part of SpaceX, it is not the part that is eating up most of the capex spend. Thus, Starlink alone cannot prop up SpaceX’s share price these days. The company confirmed that advertising revenue fell 14% compared to a year ago, which it blamed on a new advertising system. The future is AI, powered by Nvidia Elon Musk also announced that all of SpaceX’s future AI infrastructure buildout will be fueled by Nvidia chips exclusively. This suggests that Musk has secured these key components for SpaceX’s AI data centres at the same time as there is a supply crunch. A shortage of chips should not impact SpaceX, or limit its ambitions to provide AI compute for the market. This news is good for Nvidia’s share price, which is higher by 2% in post market trading. SpaceX also said that return on its AI investment is taking less than a year, and that they can deploy capital in an incredibly efficient way. This should be good news, but it has not buoyed the share price. The market reaction, and where the share price goes next Ahead of these results, SpaceX’s share price surged, rising 9% on Tuesday to more than $125. This was the biggest daily rally since June 15th, just after its IPO. However, most of these gains have been eroded and the share price is currently below $116. Overall, these results had some strong elements, but so far, the market is not convinced. When it comes to Elon Musk’s companies, you must believe his vision. However, Musk’s vision will collide with the end of another lock-in period for SpaceX pre-IPO investors on 6th August. The decline in the share price on the back of these results could be investors preempting a surge in supply, as long-term investors rush to the exit. The technical view The speed of the decline in post-market trading on Tuesday evening is concerning. Although the share price rose to $125 earlier on Tuesday, it did not stay there for long, which reinforces this level as major resistance. If the share price stays below $115 on Wednesday, then it opens the door to a steeper fall below last week’s lows of $108, if we see a surge of SpaceX shares hit the market in the next two days. Chart: SpaceX share price set for a hefty fall on Wednesday Source: XTB

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Gold surges 2%, breaks above a one-month high. Weaker dollar and oil fuel precious metals

Gold prices have staged a strong rebound, climbing to their highest level since early July as a weaker U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields boosted demand for the precious metal. Investors are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook while also monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East, which continue to shape inflation expectations and overall market risk sentiment. At this stage, gold is being driven primarily by changes in real interest rates and expectations for Fed policy, with geopolitical headlines playing a secondary role. Following the latest Fed meeting, markets scaled back some of their expectations for additional rate hikes this year, while signs of gradual diplomatic de-escalation between the United States and Iran have provided further short-term support for bullion. Weaker dollar and lower bond yields once again support gold The primary catalyst behind the latest rally has been the combination of a softer U.S. dollar and lower yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Historically, this environment has been highly supportive for gold, as falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset while a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive for investors using other currencies. Additional support came from growing optimism over improving diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran. Expectations that geopolitical tensions may ease have reduced concerns about renewed inflationary pressures stemming from energy markets. As a result, Treasury yields have declined, creating a more favorable backdrop for higher gold prices. From a macroeconomic perspective, investors are no longer focused solely on geopolitical developments themselves, but rather on how they influence inflation, monetary policy expectations and the valuation of U.S. government debt. These three factors have remained the dominant drivers of gold prices for months and continue to dictate the direction of the market. U.S. labor market data and the Fed remain the key catalysts The next major test for gold will come from U.S. labor market releases, particularly the ADP employment report and, more importantly, Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Any signs that the labor market is cooling could further reduce expectations for additional Fed tightening, typically supporting gold through another decline in Treasury yields. At the same time, many economists continue to believe that the Federal Reserve may still need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy in order to return inflation to its 2% target. Under such a scenario, real interest rates could move higher again, limiting the upside potential for gold and potentially triggering a correction below the key psychological levels currently watched by investors. Other precious metals are also showing renewed strength. Silver continues its strong upward momentum, while platinum and palladium have climbed to their highest levels since June, suggesting that improving sentiment extends well beyond gold alone. Investors appear to be rebuilding exposure to tangible assets as part of portfolio diversification amid persistent monetary and geopolitical uncertainty. GOLD chart (D1 timeframe) Gold is approaching a test of its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50, orange line) near $4,230 per ounce . A sustained move above this level would signal an improvement in short-term momentum and mark the first breakout above the EMA50 since March. During the spring, this moving average repeatedly acted as a ceiling for previous recovery attempts, making it an important technical resistance level. On the downside, the $4,000–4,050 per ounce area remains the key support zone, where buyers have consistently re-entered the market in recent months. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Gold rallies to two-week high as USD softens on Iran deal hopes, receding Fed hike bets

Gold gains strong positive traction on Wednesday as US-Iran peace deal hopes weigh on the USD. Weak oil prices ease inflation fears and temper Fed hike bets, further benefiting the yellow metal. The technical setup seems to have shifted in favor of bulls and backs the case for additional gains. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts buyers for the second consecutive day and surges past the $4,100 mark to hit a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday. The latest optimism over a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, along with receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets, prompts some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling and benefits the commodity. Despite mixed signals, investors remain hopeful about a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old US-Iran war. In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Wednesday and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict. Adding to this, Axios, citing sources, reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the strategic waterway. Furthermore, the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production from September helps ease supply concerns and dragging crude oil prices to a fresh low since June 13. This, in turn, alleviates inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations, which are seen exerting pressure on the USD and supporting the non-yielding Gold. Traders, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid signs that the US labor market is beginning to find its footing. The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job openings edged lower to 7.36 million but remained above levels seen last year. Adding to this, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson backed the case for tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates to fight inflation. This might hold back USD bears from placing aggressive bets as the focus remains on the official jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI – will be watched for short-term opportunities later during the North American session. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis should provide some impetus to the USD and the Gold price. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, seems tilted in favor of XAU/USD bulls and supports prospects for a further intraday appreciating move. XAU/USD 4-hour chart Technical Analysis: Gold bulls look to build on intraday breakout above 200-EMA on H4 From a technical perspective, an intraday breakout through the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hurdle on the 4-hour chart validates the positive outlook. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index around 65 suggests firm bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, hinting that buyers still retain control in the short term. However, the current up-move could start to struggle above $4,130, with overbought signals on momentum gauges likely to cap the upside if buying enthusiasm fades. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period EMA near $4,115, where a break would expose a deeper correction toward the daily low, near $4,065, en route to the $4,043-$4,042 region, the $4,020 level and the $4,000 psychological mark.

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Earnings

August 5, 2026

SpaceX Shares Drop 6% After Earnings. Is Space No Longer Enough for Wall Street?

Key takeaways SpaceX shares fall more than 6% following the company's quarterly earnings report. The company beat Wall Street estimates for both revenue and earnings per share, but the results failed to satisfy investors. The report marks SpaceX's first-ever public quarterly financial release. Average monthly revenue per Starlink subscriber (ARPU) declined by more than 20% year-over-year. SpaceX reported strong Q2 2026 results, beating Wall Street expectations on both revenue and operating profitability. The AI segment remained the company's primary growth engine, with revenue nearly tripling year-over-year, while Starlink continued to rapidly expand its subscriber base. SpaceX is becoming increasingly successful at diversifying its revenue streams, narrowing losses in its AI business, and strengthening its position across the space, AI, and connectivity markets. On the other hand, the company's valuation remains extremely demanding. For a business valued at $1.6 trillion generating roughly $40 billion in annual revenue while still reporting losses per share, there is very little room for execution missteps. Investors will likely need to see hyper-growth metrics sustained for years to justify the current valuation. The company's $47.5 billion backlog also appears relatively modest considering its strong exposure to government contracts. By comparison, Lockheed Martin's backlog exceeds $230 billion, while SpaceX's valuation is several times greater than the combined market capitalization of America's largest defense contractors. Key highlights from the SpaceX earnings report Revenue increased to $7.8 billion, roughly 15% above the $6.82 billion consensus estimate, representing 92% year-over-year and 44% quarter-over-quarter growth. Adjusted EPS came in at -$0.09 versus expectations of -$0.29. Adjusted EBITDA surged 191% YoY to $3.5 billion, significantly outperforming the $2.0 billion consensus. Net loss narrowed to $541 million, substantially better than analysts had expected, reflecting continued improvement in profitability. The AI segment's operating loss declined to $1.26 billion from an expected $2.39 billion, highlighting improving operating efficiency. AI remained the company's fastest-growing business, with revenue rising 247% YoY to $2.56 billion. The Connectivity segment, including Starlink, generated $4.29 billion in revenue, up 66% YoY, remaining SpaceX's largest source of sales. The Space segment delivered $962 million in revenue, representing 29% year-over-year growth. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million, slightly below expectations of 12.19 million, while average revenue per user (ARPU) declined 22% YoY to $66 per month, likely reflecting continued expansion into lower-priced markets. Backlog increased to $47.5 billion, providing strong visibility into future revenue. SpaceX ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash and investments, maintaining a solid balance sheet. Capital expenditures totaled $18.4 billion, reflecting continued aggressive investment in AI infrastructure and space technologies. Major corporate developments included the issuance of $25 billion in inaugural senior notes, the announcement of the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, $14.1 billion in contracted cloud services agreements, and more than $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government Starshield contracts. As of the end of June 2026, SpaceX also held 18,712 Bitcoin, worth approximately $1.2 billion at current market prices. SpaceX nearly doubled revenue while significantly improving profitability despite record investment The second quarter of 2026 marked another period of exceptional expansion for SpaceX. Revenue nearly doubled year-over-year, comfortably beating analyst expectations, while the company substantially reduced both its net loss and operating loss. Net loss declined to $541 million from more than $1 billion a year earlier, while operating loss narrowed dramatically from $970 million to just $143 million. One of the most impressive metrics was adjusted EBITDA, which surged 191% year-over-year to $3.53 billion, indicating that the core business is scaling much faster than net earnings alone would suggest. At the same time, SpaceX continues to execute one of the largest investment programs in the technology sector. Capital expenditures increased to $18.3 billion, up from $10.1 billion in the previous quarter and just $2.8 billion a year ago. Most of this spending was directed toward AI infrastructure, which is rapidly becoming one of the company's most important long-term growth pillars. Despite record investment, SpaceX finished the quarter with approximately $100 billion in cash and investments and total assets of $192.7 billion, preserving a comfortable liquidity position. On the other hand, total debt and finance leases increased to roughly $39.3 billion, meaning that sustaining the current pace of investment will require continued rapid growth in revenue and cash generation. AI and Starlink continue to drive growth, but expectations remain exceptionally high AI remains SpaceX's fastest-growing business, with revenue increasing 247% year-over-year to $2.56 billion. Equally important, profitability improved significantly as the segment's operating loss nearly halved compared with the previous quarter, while adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time, reaching $1.14 billion. Meanwhile, AI computing capacity expanded to 1.4 GW, and the company signed cloud services agreements worth $14.1 billion, suggesting that demand for its AI infrastructure remains exceptionally strong. Starlink continues to represent the company's second major growth engine. Subscribers doubled to 12 million, the constellation expanded to roughly 10,200 satellites covering 167 countries, and the Connectivity segment generated $4.29 billion in revenue, growing 66% year-over-year. Enterprise and government services remain the fastest-growing areas, supported by new agreements with American Airlines, additional airline partners, SoftBank, NTT Docomo, Spark NZ, and more than $6 billion in multi-year Starshield contracts awarded by the U.S. government. SpaceX expands its partnership with Nvidia SpaceX announced a strategic partnership with Nvidia to develop the new Starmind AI-1 computing payload. The project aims to bring data center-class computing capabilities into orbit by utilizing Nvidia's latest Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs. As a result, the maximum computing capacity of SpaceX satellites is expected to increase to approximately 250 kW, significantly enhancing their ability to process data and run advanced AI models directly in space. SpaceX shares (SPCX.US), D1 chart If the stock opens tomorrow near its current after-hours level, it would imply a share price of around $116, approximately 10% above the lows recorded in late July. Even after this rebound, however, the stock remains more than 50% below its post-IPO peak. Data from S3 Partners had already indicated exceptionally heavy short positioning ahead of the earnings release. Around 95% of the shares available for borrowing had been lent to short sellers, with short interest reaching 34% of the free float—an unusually high level of bearish positioning, particularly for one of America's largest publicly traded companies. While such positioning increases the potential for a powerful short squeeze if sentiment improves, the market's initial reaction to the earnings report has been negative. The definitive assessment will come after the regular trading session opens and investors fully digest both the results and management's commentary. Source: xStation5

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Energies

August 5, 2026

Coal Slips as India Production Rises

Thermal coal futures fell to around $130 per ton in early August, pulling back from more than one-month highs as India’s coal production increased 7.51% year-on-year to 69.75 million tons in July, strengthening domestic supply and reducing the country’s reliance on imported coal. India also delivered larger coal volumes to power plants and other downstream consumers. Coal prices were further pressured by a sharp decline in oil prices following reports of an imminent agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices reduced the incentive for fuel switching, particularly among energy-importing countries in Europe and Asia. Meanwhile, coal demand in China picked up after a relatively mild start to the summer gave way to hotter weather, driving higher air conditioner usage and increased electricity consumption.

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Technical Selling Weighs on Cocoa Prices

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) on Tuesday closed down -15 (-0.25%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed down -41 (-0.93%). Cocoa prices fell from 2.5-week highs on Tuesday and settled lower on technical selling.  Cocoa prices have surged more than 15% over the past three trading sessions, lifting prices into heavily overbought territory and sparking long liquidation from funds.  Cocoa prices initially rallied to 2.5-week highs on Tuesday on positive carryover from last Friday, amid concerns over cocoa production in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer.  Last Friday, Ghana's cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected Ghana's 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  Cocoa prices dropped to 1-month lows last Tuesday on signs of larger global cocoa supplies amid suspect demand.  Monday's cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Also, Bloomberg reported on July 16 that Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT.  Rising cocoa inventories are bearish for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,375,119 bags last Tuesday. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y. On the positive side, StoneX last Wednesday cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Cocoa prices have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  However, a senior manager at Expana said on July 23 that the most recent surveys show a substantial improvement in cocoa pod counts compared with the early surveys.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  The outlook for a smaller global cocoa surplus is supportive of cocoa prices.  On July 23, Transgraph Consulting forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa prices also have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  The outlook for smaller cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer, supports prices.  Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. 

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Coffee Prices Rise as Brazil Rain Forecasts May Delay Harvest

September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up +4.60 (+1.44%) on Tuesday, and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed up +68 (+1.80%). Coffee prices settled higher on Tuesday as short covering emerged after an unexpected chance of rain was forecast for Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-growing region, which could further delay the country’s coffee harvest.  Coffee prices sold off sharply on Monday as forecasts for drier conditions in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions bolstered the outlook for the pace of the country’s coffee harvest to pick up.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that no rain fell in the week ended August 2 in Minas Gerais. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supportive of coffee prices.  The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 58.3% complete as of July 24, behind the year-earlier pace of 67%.  On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%.  Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots on July 22, although inventories were mildly below that level at 4,207 lots today.  By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 253,343 bags on Tuesday. The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On Sunday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Tighter Supply Outlook Lifts Sugar Prices

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) on Tuesday closed up +0.03 (+0.20%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +3.20 (+0.69%). Sugar prices extended their 3-session rally on Tuesday, with NY sugar posting a 3.5-week high and London sugar posting a 4-week high.  The outlook for tighter future sugar supplies is propelling prices higher after Covrig Analytics on Monday said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus. Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Wednesday raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT, and StoneX last Tuesday raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT. Concerns over India’s sugar crop are supporting prices.  Last Friday, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  India’s weather office recently lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season to 90% of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April.  Last Thursday, NY sugar matched a 5-month low amid the prospects of higher Indian sugar output as monsoon rains had improved.  India’s Meteorological Department reported on Monday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 12% below normal as of August 3, a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30.  As a bullish factor, Unica reported on June 22 that 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production through May is 6.838 MMT, down -2.0% y/y as millers ramped up ethanol production. The percent of sugarcane used for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills dropped to 41.42% from 50.09% as cane crushing for ethanol production rose to 58.38% from 49.91% last year.  Also, sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts that global sugar production will fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, and that there will be a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Why Have Cocoa Prices Recovered?

While the wild price swings in 2024 and 2025 are in the cocoa futures markets’ rearview mirror, the potential for weather-related volatility remains high. Moreover, with approximately 60% of the world’s cocoa production coming from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, weather conditions in West Africa will be the critical factor guiding prices over the coming months and years.  Cocoa is now trading on the high side relative to pre-2024 prices, and a continuation of ample supplies will likely push the price back towards the $1756-$2,943 range that cocoa futures traded in from 2017 through February 2023.   Nearby ICE cocoa futures were trading near $3,950 per ton on June 15, and have rallied over the past few months, reaching over $6,000 per ton as the soft commodity rejected the 2017 to 2023 trading range.  Cocoa rallies After plunging 78%, ICE cocoa futures bottomed and turned higher.  The continuous contract monthly chart shows that cocoa futures surpassed the $5,104 per ton 1977 high in February 2024, and rose to a record $12,931 per ton peak in December 2024, where they ran out of upside momentum. Cocoa futures plunged to a low of $2,846 in March 2026, where they turned higher, rising to $6,478 in July. At over $5,900 in early August, cocoa continues to make higher lows and higher highs.  West African weather and crop disease cause more supply concerns Heavy rains in West Africa, causing flooding in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s leading cocoa-producing countries, have threatened crop yields. Moreover, expectations of a strong El Niño weather pattern and rising global chocolate demand have increased concerns of a long-term supply deficit.  The elevated West African moisture that flooded farms and damaged infrastructure used to transport cocoa beans from farms to ports for export has increased the risk of crop diseases such as brown rot. Meanwhile, forecasts of a strong El Niño, which brings warmer, drier conditions, could stress cocoa trees and reduce bean yields.  Demand surged as the price dropped Commodity cyclicality in 2024, which drove cocoa futures to nearly $13,000 per ton, led to higher inventories and declining demand as cocoa consumers sought alternatives. Chocolate manufacturers reduced portion sizes to deal with high prices, and consumers purchased fewer chocolate confectionery products. As the price plunged, consumption rebounded. The National Confectioners Association reported that North American cocoa grindings rose unexpectedly by 7.7% year-over-year, with leading chocolate manufacturers reporting increased sales.  Weather issues impacting supply and lower prices spurring demand caused cocoa futures to bottom and prices to explode higher from the March 2026 low.  Levels to watch in the cocoa futures market The twenty-year monthly continuous ICE cocoa futures contract highlights the extreme volatility and current technical support and resistance levels. The chart shows that technical support is now far below the current price level at the March 2026 low of $2,846 per ton. While resistance is at the July 2026 high of $6,478 per ton, the next upside target is the October 2025 high of $6,821 per ton.  The 2026 year-to-date continuous contract cocoa chart shows that the July 9 high was a new high for 2026, and that cocoa futures have been in a bullish trend since the early March low, making higher lows and higher highs. Short-term technical support is significantly below the current price at the May 22 low of $3,651, with resistance at the July high of $6,478 per ton.  The factors that will keep cocoa futures prices elevated over the coming months The weather and crop diseases are the most significant factors for the path of least resistance of cocoa futures prices over the coming days and weeks. Meanwhile, the following factors could influence prices aside from the issues impacting crops: Global inflation and stubbornly high interest rates increase production costs. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased insurance and shipping costs, impacting all exports, including cocoa. After falling from nearly $13,000 per ton, which destroyed demand, prices below $6,000 remain attractive to consumers, so price elasticity has moved to a much higher level after the rally to an all-time high. Cocoa production is limited by climate, making West Africa a critical producing region. Aside from the weather, political issues that affect logistics could always affect exports and global supply chains.  The bottom line is that cocoa futures have shifted from selling all rallies after late 2024 to buying dips since March 2026. No ETF or ETN tracks cocoa, so futures and futures options on the Intercontinental Exchange are the only vehicles for trading in the volatile soft commodity. In early August 2026, buying cocoa on price weakness is optimal, as the trend is a trader’s best friend until it bends. 

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Copper Climbs Toward Fresh Record High

Copper futures rose above $6.6 per pound, moving closer to fresh record highs as tightening global supply supported prices. Traders continued to ramp up shipments to the US while drawing down inventories elsewhere ahead of an expected decision by the Trump administration on copper import tariffs. Industry data showed that more than 200,000 tons of copper arrived at US ports in July, marking the largest monthly inflow in over a decade and adding to the substantial stockpiles built up over the past year. Meanwhile, copper inventories across the London Metal Exchange’s warehousing network fell to a five-month low, with traders pointing to increased shipments to China to ease a domestic supply shortage. Copper also remained supported by its strong long-term demand outlook, driven by the global transition to clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers.

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Markets

August 5, 2026

Soybeans Extend Decline Near 5-Week Low

Soybean futures fell further to around $11.5 per bushel, approaching a five-week low as weaker crude oil prices weighed on the vegetable oil market. Oil prices sharply declined following reports of a potential US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Agricultural commodity prices often tracked energy markets due to the growing use of crop-based feedstocks in biofuel production. Additional pressure came from expectations of ample global supplies, with brokerage StoneX forecasting the 2026 US soybean harvest at 4.47 billion bushels. While the USDA recently confirmed a private sale of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, the purchase did little to offset the bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor developments in the Black Sea region, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatened grain export routes, although expectations for another large harvest from the region continued to weigh on prices.

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Metals

August 5, 2026

Corn Slips as Oil Prices Slump

Corn futures fell to around $4.4 per bushel, easing from multi-week highs as weaker crude oil prices weighed on sentiment across agricultural markets. Oil prices plunged amid rising optimism over a potential US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing support for biofuel-linked crops. Agricultural commodity prices are often influenced by energy markets due to the growing use of crop-based feedstocks in biofuel production. Additional pressure came from expectations of abundant supplies, with brokerage StoneX projecting the 2026 US corn harvest at 16.16 billion bushels. The USDA also lowered its good-to-excellent rating for the US corn crop for a third consecutive week, though the deterioration did little to offset the market's bearish supply outlook. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on Black Sea grain exports, although expectations for another large harvest from the region continued to weigh on prices.

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Nasdaq 100 Up 3.2% – Is the Bull Market Back?

The Nasdaq 100 is rising by over 3% today, recording one of the strongest gains this year. This is supported by both lower oil prices, following statements from Scott Bessent, and excellent results from companies – including Palantir, whose shares are up by nearly 30% today. Equities Aside from Palantir, the top performers are from the semiconductor sector, which suffered a very deep correction in July. ARM shares are up by 15%, Marvell by 14%, Astera Labs by 12%, Sandisk by 11%, and Intel by 10%. AMD is also performing well (+8%), awaiting the publication of quarterly results, which will take place today after the US market closes. Figure 1: Heatmap for the Nasdaq 100 (04.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 04.08.2026 The market has already largely priced in future profits from the AI revolution to justify current valuations; therefore, the producer cannot simply meet analysts' expectations, but must clearly exceed them and present very optimistic forecasts for the coming months. Investors will pay attention primarily to the results of the rapidly growing Data Center segment and the profitability and development of new solutions for artificial intelligence. Any disappointment with growth dynamics or more cautious management estimates could lead to profit-taking, weighing on sentiment across the entire sector. Figure 2: Dashboard for AMD Source: XTB Research, 04.08.2026 In recent days, AMD, like other companies in the semiconductor sector, has received support from hyperscalers whose quarterly reports showed unceasing capital expenditure. In the case of Alphabet, CAPEX is expected to reach 200 billion dollars in 2026. Decreasing concerns about dynamic monetary policy tightening by the Fed after the last FOMC meeting were also favourable. Figure 3: Winners and Losers on the Nasdaq 100 (04.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 04.08.2026 All of the above-mentioned companies are, however, deep below their June peaks. On a monthly basis, losses for Sandisk or Intel oscillate around 18%. Returning to the topic of Palantir, which is driving today's broad index gains (and also remains significantly below recent peaks): Sentiment before the report's publication was not the best – there were concerns about, among other things, the sale of shares by Alex Karp or Peter Thiel (although it is worth noting that this is a regular occurrence in Palantir's case). The results published by the company turned out to be far better than expectations, showing revenue growth to 1.94 billion dollars (a 94% year-on-year increase) and EPS at 0.41 dollars (an improvement of 256% relative to Q2 2025). Palantir's products are no longer just a narrow niche for government contracts, but a powerful business tool for the private sector. The company's development dynamics remain extremely impressive. In Q3, the company expects revenue growth at a level of 2.16 billion dollars. Figure 4: Dashboard for Palantir Source: XTB Research, 04.08.2026 Upcoming publications include those from SpaceX and AMD. Both will be released after the US market closes. The former will be the first serious test for the company, which debuted on the US market in June. On the European market, the main indices also ended in the green. The Polish WIG20 gained 1.4%. The Italian MIB FTSE ended the day 1.3% up. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 strengthened by 0.9%. The German DAX ended the day 0.8% higher. Commodities One of the main topics in the markets today was the fall in energy prices after Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, announced on CNBC that an agreement regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could be reached today or tomorrow: "There is a chance that we will be able to reach an agreement on opening the strait either today or tomorrow and take steps towards greater normalisation of the situation in this conflict." "It is not just about energy. It is about fertilisers, refined products and various industrial gases." "As these prices fall, we could see a significant increase in demand resulting from price relief." Figure 5: OIL [H4] (24.03.2026 - 04.08.2026) Source: xStation, 04.08.2026 We currently have to pay less than 80 dollars for a barrel of Brent, which is over 20% less than it was less than two weeks ago. We see a slightly smaller decline in LNG – MWh TTF currently costs a little over 54 dollars (14% down relative to the local peak from 24 July). Precious metals are rising, which can be linked to, among other things, the decline in 10-year bond yields in major economies. We will currently pay less than 4,100 dollars for a troy ounce of gold (+1%), and 60 dollars for silver (+3%). Copper prices are also rising (+0.7%). Macroeconomic data Data publications were scarce today. Attention was focused on the US labour market, which will dominate the macroeconomic calendar until the end of the week. The JOLTS report for June published today brought a slight decline in the number of job openings in the US to a level of approx. 7.36 million, slightly missing the market consensus (7.45 million). The rate of layoffs and voluntary departures, however, remained at very stable levels. Ahead of us is the publication of the ADP report (Wednesday), weekly unemployment claims (Thursday), and the NFP report (Friday). The latter, in particular, will be the centre of attention – it may help determine the further path for the Fed and the dollar. Currencies The dollar remains under pressure. This is not helped by the decline in energy prices (the US is a net exporter in this regard) and the improvement in risk sentiment. The EURUSD exchange rate is oscillating around the 1.152 level. Figure 6: Selected Currency Quotes (04.08.2026) Source: XTB Research, 04.08.2026 Lower oil prices are weighing on the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar, currencies of countries highly dependent on its export. The Japanese yen is also weakening – the USDJPY exchange rate is returning to an upward trend after the recent joint intervention by the US and Japan. According to data provided by the Bank of Japan, the scale of intervention on the Japanese side could have reached as much as 59 billion dollars, which would be an unprecedented action (looking at the scale of a 1-day intervention). Although we cannot estimate the scale of US actions using official data, there are many indications that it reached 5-10 billion dollars. That is suggested at least by a note left by Scott Bessent during a meeting in Maryland. Due to the cooperation from the US side in the recent intervention aimed at strengthening the yen, the issue of broader White House policy is returning to the table. A return to actions aimed at weakening the US currency, which would be intended to support domestic exports, does not seem impossible. At the beginning of 2025, such actions were termed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord", meaning a modern attempt to repeat the assumptions of the Plaza Accord of 1985.

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Banks

August 4, 2026

US Dollar Index: Rally questioned as safe-haven role tested – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes the US Dollar (USD) has been the weakest G10 currency over the past week, with US Dollar Index (DXY) down about 2% from late July. The report reviews how the Middle East and Iran conflicts, Trump’s tariffs and rate-cut rhetoric, and Fed expectations have shaped USD sentiment. It argues recent declines revive concerns about safe-haven status and reserve-currency privilege. Dollar slide revives safe-haven doubts "The USD is the worst performing G10 currency on a 5-day view, with the DXY dollar index having lost around 2% since its late July levels. Consequently, questions are already being asked if the USD rally, which has been in evidence through the duration of the Middle East crisis, is over. The context to these questions harps back to the sharp losses in the value of the USD last spring and the sour tone that hung over the greenback into the start of the Iran war in late February." "When both the USD and US treasuries lost their footing in April 2025 following the tariffs announcements by US President Trump that month, confidence in the USD as a safe haven was undermined. This fanned the discussion about the USD’s role as the prime reserve currency, its place in international payments systems and the pace of de-dollarisation. Trump’s calls for rate cuts and concerns about Fed credibility also had a role in clouding the USD’s performance last year." "Since then, the USD has proved that it is still the primary safe haven currency. Since May, it has found additional support from Fed rate hike speculation. Nevertheless, its recent decline has stirred up fears that last year’s negative sentiment could return." "On top of that, safe haven USD buying will likely have been knocked back by the weekend announcement from Trump that he had paused further attacks on Iran on the hope of a diplomatic solution." "While the market will continue to debate the long-term outlook for the greenback and its place as the world’s primary reserve currency, its short-term outlook should continue to find support from relatively good US economic data."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Asia FX: Yen-led winners and export backdrop – MUFG

Michael Wan at MUFG explains that South Korean Won (KRW), Thai Baht (THB), Singapore Dollar (SGD) and, to a smaller extent, Philippine Peso (PHP) are the main Asian FX beneficiaries if Japanese Yen strength persists, given their higher sensitivity to USD/JPY. He notes that correlation and conditional beta to Yen moves have fallen for Chinese Yuan (CNH), Taiwan Dollar (TWD) and Indian Rupee (INR) since 2025. Robust Asia PMI data suggest strong export momentum, with growth expected to slow into 2027 but stay elevated. KRW, THB, SGD, PHP sensitivity to JPY "Overall, the Asia PMI numbers that were out yesterday suggests that export momentum remains quite robust, and this fits in as well with the lead indicators we track which tells us that export growth should slow into 2027 but remain at a high level overall." "Looking across the Asian FX complex, our analysis shows that the South Korea won, and to a smaller extent the Thai Baht, Singapore dollar and Philippines Peso in that order are more sensitive to Japanese Yen moves." "For most currencies this sensitivity has come down since 2025, and certainly for the likes of CNH, TWD and INR." "KRW is the one which stands out where both conditional beta measures and correlation have risen over the last 2 years." "As such, if the Japanese Yen strengthening moves continue, we would expect KRW, THB, SGD, and to a much smaller extent PHP to benefit in Asia FX context."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Euro: Consolidation below resistance against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s analysts observe that the Euro is consolidating around the 1.15 area against the Dollar, with limited Eurozone data to drive price action. They point to last week’s sharp move higher stalling at a broader bear-trend line and stress that a break above 1.1565 is needed to extend gains, while support is seen in the 1.1460/1.1480 region. Euro holds gains near 1.15 "The EUR is little changed on the session. There were no major data reports from the Eurozone area on the session and spot appears to be content to consolidate recent gains through the 1.15 area." "Reports suggest some net inflows into Eurozone bonds as global investors reduce exposure to US Treasury debt" "Neutral—The snap higher in EUR/USD last week stalled at a key technical point—the broader bear trend that has guided the EUR lower from the January peak." "Technical pointers lean EUR-bullish after a solid rise overall last week but a break above 1.1565 trend resistance is needed to lift the EUR further. Support is 1.1460/80."

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Energies

August 4, 2026

Gasoline Falls to Over 5-Week Low

Gasoline in the US fell below $2.90 per gallon, the lowest level since June 26, as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on energy prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that there is a chance of a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait, while Qatar announced that a draft proposal to revive US-Iran negotiations was being circulated, although officials stressed that no agreement had yet been reached. Earlier, President Donald Trump delayed planned military strikes on Iran to allow more time for diplomacy. Meanwhile, gasoline prices remain more than 30% above year-ago levels, as limited US refining capacity continues to constrain fuel supplies and restrict the industry's ability to boost production. In Russia, the government extended its diesel and gasoline export ban through January 2027 as fuel shortages persisted amid continued Ukrainian strikes on major oil refineries.

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Earnings

August 4, 2026

SpaceX earnings preview

Double whammy for SpaceX SpaceX will report its first earnings report since its June IPO later this evening, at approx. 2130 BST. This report comes at an important time, the share price crashed and burned in recent weeks, it is down 50% from its peak and is trading below its IPO price. Unsurprisingly, investors are jittery leading up to this report as it may determine the long term direction for the stock. Numbers to watch As this is the first earnings report from SpaceX, it is difficult to know what to expect. Analysts are predicting the company will report revenues of $6.93bn and earnings per share of $0.26. SpaceX is made up of three main businesses. Its space revenue is expected to come in at $835mn for Q2, connectivity revenues are expected to come in at $3.38bn, and its AI business is expected to generate $2.18bn. We already know that SpaceX is loss-making, the company lost $4.3bn in Q1, after reporting a $4.9bn loss in 2025. Thus, reporting another loss would not be a shock to the market. Instead, the market will want to see what the company capex spend is, can it afford Elon Musk’s hopes to send data centres into space? What are the supply chain disruptions, and will it make a decent return down the line? Upside risks for capex In Q1 capex spend was $10.1bn, with $7.7bn linked to AI. Analysts expect capex to grow to $13.2bn for last quarter. This will be a key metric to watch. SpaceX said in its IPO prospectus that it would prioritize growth and investment to capture significant opportunities in AI and compute infrastructure. Due to this, we think that the risks are to the upside for capex. If they are significantly higher than expectations, we could see the stock price take another lurch lower, as a high capex number could lead to fears about the cash burn rate. Last year, Starlink was SpaceX’s most profitable business, generating more than $11bn in sales, which was 61% of the total. It also generated $4.42bn of income. In June, the company rose Starlink subscriber prices, while this may be too late to have an impact on Q2 earnings, it could impact future earnings, although SpaceX may not provide future earnings guidance in its first earnings report. Why a SpaceX and Tesla merger would be a bad idea Investors will also be watching to see if Musk plans to merge Tesla with SpaceX. If Musk does suggest that this is possible, the market may not think it is wise to have two companies merge with negative cash flow and high large spending plans. Another looming risk for the SpaceX share price Earnings are not the only big event for the SpaceX share price this week. On 6th August, a lock up period for SpaceX shares will expire, which could more than double the tradable float of SpaceX shares. Thus, tonight’s numbers may not be the biggest driver for SpaceX shares. Strong earnings could become a good exit point for those who have owned pre-IPO SpaceX shares and can finally sell them. However, bad earnings and a doubled float size could add a double whammy of downside pressure to the share price later this week. The stock price impact The fact that the enhanced share float size comes so soon after the earnings report, could make a bullish path hard to find for SpaceX in the coming days. Added to this, traders have rushed to sell SpaceX shares in recent weeks, and 34% of the original float is currently sold short, the equivalent of $23.6bn. There is an uncomfortable fundamental backdrop to this earnings report. However, from a technical perspective, the $110 level is key support. This is also the level that Elon Musk said represents a massive bargain for the stock. Ater closing last week below $110, the stock has jumped above this level and is higher by 1.37% this week. However, it is still 22% below its IPO price. Momentum indicators are still to the downside for SpaceX, and the stock price remains below key moving averages. This is at odds with the overall market, which has embarked on a powerful rally in recent days and has marked the end of the sell off in tech stocks, which started on 22nd June. Key resistance to watch include $123, which is the first major hurdle for any rebound. Chart: SpaceX Source: XTB

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Energies

August 4, 2026

Commodity Wrap – Oil, Natgas, Cocoa, Wheat

Market Situation In the energy commodities market, we are seeing a strong sell-off today, led by WTI crude (-4.35%) and Brent (-3.65%), which have already lost 9.58% and 8.65% respectively on a weekly basis. This sharp sell-off is a direct reaction to media reports of advanced talks and the possible imminent opening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which has drastically reduced supply concerns and lowered the risk premium. Precious metals are trading in a completely different mood today, with platinum gaining 6.05% and palladium rising 5.09%. In the long term, the entire group of metals shows extremely high valuations relative to historical norms, as indicated by high Z-score indicators for copper (+3.23σ), gold (+2.80σ), and silver (+2.54σ). On the other hand, in the short term, precious and industrial metals are not as heavily deviated from their means. The dynamic increases in metals coincide with speculation around Fed monetary policy, while falling oil prices bring temporary relief to debt markets ahead of the publication of key macroeconomic data. In the near future, it is important to watch closely whether the de-escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz will permanently maintain downward pressure on the fuel sector. Daily changes in the commodity market. Falling energy commodity prices are boosting metals to rise. The agricultural commodity market remains calm after the recent higher volatility. Source: XTB From a two-year perspective, TTF natural gas, cotton, wheat, and zinc remain the most overbought. Source: XTB Crude Oil Brent oil prices rose at the beginning of Tuesday's session towards $85 per barrel, and WTI exceeded $81 per barrel, attempting to recover part of the 8% decline from the beginning of this week. At 1:00 PM CET, information regarding a potential agreement began to surface, and prices not only negated the entire morning's gains but began to lose even over 4% from yesterday's close. President Donald Trump announced the cancellation of a mass attack on Iran, giving Tehran a "last chance" for an agreement on unblocking transport in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian side denies direct talks with the US, but confirms advanced negotiations with Oman on creating a temporary maritime route for merchant ships. It is this factor that is causing the greatest pressure on prices at the moment. The price drop in the second part of Tuesday's session is the result of speculation about a "short-term agreement." The Qatari side points to a short-term solution but does not mention any specifics. Scott Bessent is responsible for the declines today, indicating that a potential short-term agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz could be announced later today or tomorrow. Increased investor activity was also observed in put spread options for Brent oil (including November $70/$69 positions) and WTI, aimed at hedging OTC positions. Exports from Saudi Arabia fell slightly in July due to shipping hazards, while production in Kuwait rose to its highest level since the outbreak of fighting. Saudi Arabia reports that oil exports to Asia via the Suez Canal result in an increase in delivery time by about 20-25 days. At least 30 Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure were recorded in July. Crude oil prices return to declines after an early attempt to rebound and are trading at the lowest levels since mid-July. The price is falling not only below the 50-period average but also below the 25-period average, which is an important signal of short-term supply pressure. Source: xStation5 The situation in US inventories and reserves is becoming increasingly tight, but the market is ignoring the issue of physical tension at the moment. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Natural Gas TC Energy raised its ten-year natural gas demand forecast in North America by 40% (an increase of 51 bcf per day by 2035), driven by LNG exports and the dynamic development of AI data centers (e.g., the newly announced $13 billion Meta project in Alberta). AECO gas spot prices in Alberta were 1.52 CAD/Mcf against the US benchmark of 2.70 USD/MMBtu. Low prices prompted Canada's largest producer, Tourmaline Oil, to limit production and redirect gas to storage. During the May-July period, LNG imports to India rose by 15.4% y/y to 7.08 million tons. The collapse in supplies from Qatar (-91.3% y/y) as a result of the Hormuz crisis was more than offset by increased volumes from the USA (+252.8%), Oman (+340.9%), Nigeria, and Angola. Kpler analysts predict that Asian LNG spot prices will remain high at 19-20 USD/MMBtu in the second half of the year due to limited availability and direct competition for cargoes with Europe. Gas exports in the US are accelerating but remain below the maximum capacity of approximately 20 BCfd. Temperatury in the perspective of the next two weeks are expected to remain above averages, but seasonally we are already past the peak consumption of the summer period. In view of the approaching winter period, US inventory levels remain high, and extreme El Nino may reduce heating needs in early November. Gas consumption in the summer season is already outside the seasonal peak. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB US inventory levels remain significantly above the 5-year average. Although the currently implied inventory change for the next few weeks is low, the distance from the 5-year average will most likely remain the same or even increase. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Price returns to declines and after breaking support at 2.65, the next wave could lead to testing the vicinity of 2.5 USD/MMBtu. Source: xStation5 Cocoa Cocoa futures in New York jumped over 10% at the start of the week, returning to around $6,000 per ton after earlier declines at the end of July below $5,000. The direct impulse for the increases were estimates from the Ghanaian regulator, forecasting a 16% drop in harvests in the 2026/2027 season as a result of unfavorable weather and the growing risk of a strong El Niño phenomenon. A sudden change in sentiment led to a wave of forced short covering by speculative investors. Farmers in Côte d'Ivoire and Cameroon are fighting the spread of swollen shoot and black pod diseases, intensifying chemical spraying. Large transactions on call spreads were noted on the ICE exchange in New York for July 2027, which may suggest expectations of supply problems for next year. Despite concerns regarding future supply, we observe a continued strong increase in inventories in the market, which may indicate a strong harvest season with limited demand. Since the beginning of this year, cocoa inventories on ICE have increased by over 1 million bags. The current situation resembles 2021. If inventories rise to over 4 million bags this year, the price increase above $6,000 per ton will not be justified. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The cocoa price rebounded again but shows similar behavior as at the turn of April and May, which could mean that after the current rebound, it will again test levels close to $5,000. Source: xStation5 Wheat Winter wheat harvests in the United States reached 86% (in line with the multi-year average). The condition of spring wheat ranks 55% in the good or excellent category, and the condition index rose to 97 points (compared to 96 points a week earlier). Wheat inspections for export at the end of the week in July fell by nearly 20% compared to the previous week and were simultaneously half as low as last year. US wheat deliveries in the current marketing year remain 27% below last year's levels. Western and Central Europe (including France, Germany, England) are struggling with heatwaves reaching 31-35 degrees Celsius and limited, local rainfall. Good, wet weather favors crop development in central Russia and on the Canadian prairie (outside the dry southwestern region). Uneven rains in Australia and the ongoing drought in Argentina create unfavorable conditions for vegetation. Wheat crops in Australia typically lose very heavily on a strong El Nino. On the CBOT exchange, investors were acquiring call spreads on Kansas City wheat. Wheat still remains at an elevated level, which is related to Russia's export problems, but with the start of the spring wheat harvest in the US and Europe, supply pressure should decrease, which could lead to a reduction in prices from the recent high levels. Short positions on wheat have been clearly reduced and net positions are minimally negative. At the same time, looking at the situation in recent years, net positions are at an extremely high level from the perspective of the last 3 years, which may indicate a potential return of sellers. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Wheat and other agricultural commodities are clearly correlated with crude oil prices. Nevertheless, apart from oil itself, current fundamentals do not indicate that wheat is lacking in the market, so further price reductions cannot be ruled out. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Platinum gains 6% as precious metals rebound, US Dollar weakens

Platinum is gaining more than 6% today, extending its rebound shortly after gold bounced from around $4,100 per ounce and US dollar weakened pressured by falling oil prices. One factor supporting sentiment is the recent production halt at one of the world's largest platinum mines. On July 24, Impala Platinum (Implats) suspended mining operations at its flagship Rustenburg complex following a series of fatal workplace accidents. Although the shutdown was described as a precautionary measure to conduct a comprehensive safety review, it temporarily reduced production at one of the industry's most important assets. The development is significant for the platinum market, as Rustenburg accounts for nearly half of Implats' platinum-group metals (PGM) output, while South Africa remains the world's largest producer of platinum-group metals. Key facts Implats suspended mining operations at the Rustenburg complex in South Africa between July 24 and July 28 to carry out a comprehensive safety audit. The decision followed six worker fatalities over the past 12 months , including two deaths this month . Rustenburg is Implats' largest operation , employing approximately 51,500 people . The complex accounts for nearly 50% of the company's total platinum-group metals (PGM) production , with expected FY2026 output of 1.67–1.76 million PGM ounces . During the shutdown, the company is conducting workplace inspections, safety audits, additional employee training, and a review of critical safety procedures with the support of independent specialists. Implats also announced cooperation with the manufacturer of its underground locomotive anti-collision systems after several recent incidents involved rail-bound mining equipment. Management emphasized that eliminating workplace fatalities and strengthening the company's safety culture remain top priorities. The latest events once again highlight the operational challenges of South Africa's deep-level mining industry, which remains among the most technically demanding in the world. In November 2023 , the same mining complex suffered one of South Africa's worst mining accidents in recent years, when 13 miners were killed in a shaft hoisting accident. The company estimates that the suspension will reduce production by approximately eight days during FY2027, with the final impact on output to be assessed after operations resume. While the short-term impact on global platinum supply is expected to remain limited thanks to the relatively brief shutdown and existing surface stockpiles, any further production disruptions at Rustenburg would represent an important risk for the platinum market, the automotive sector, and industries that rely on platinum-group metals. Platinum (D1 interval) Looking at the daily chart, platinum has fallen by roughly 50% from its January high, when the metal traded close to $3,000 per ounce , compared with around $1,500 just a few days ago. The recent rebound has pushed prices back toward the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) near $1,730 per ounce . If buyers manage to reclaim the 200-day EMA around $1,830 per ounce , it could signal a broader trend reversal and improve the medium-term technical outlook. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

August 4, 2026

Trade of The Day – AUD/JPY

Facts AUDJPY returned today above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200; black). Daily RSI[14] fell over the past week from approx. 65 to approx. 34. Interest rates in Australia remain higher than in Japan (4.35% vs. 1.00%). Recommendation Position: Long (BUY) on AUDJPY at market price Target Price (Take Profit; TP): 112.575 (TP1), 113.465 (TP2) Stop Loss (SL): 109.620 Source: xStation5 Opinion Recent currency interventions on the yen and a unified narrative from Japanese and US authorities standing behind the Japanese currency (US Treasury Secretary Bessent today: "The United States will do everything in its power to support the yen") led to a sharp sell-off in JPY-led pairs (AUDJPY: -3.5%, USDJPY: -3.9%, EURJPY: -2.6% change over the past week). The determination communicated by Tokyo and Washington should limit speculative selling of the yen; however, a sustained recovery in the Japanese currency will likely only be possible following stabilization in the bond market and a clear hawkish turn by the Bank of Japan. With current interest rates (Australia: 4.35%, Japan: 1.00%), the recent AUDJPY sell-off enhances the appeal of the carry trade, even in light of recent, fairly dovish remarks from the RBA. A rebound off the 200-day EMA (black), combined with a global increase in risk appetite (gains in risk assets, falling oil prices, de-escalation in the Middle East), should therefore motivate at least a local upward correction in AUDJPY. This is further supported by the fact that AUDUSD itself remains in an uptrend (trading above the EMA30 and EMA100 on the daily interval), bolstered by the recent decline in US rate hike expectations. Methodology This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the AUDJPY chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (monetary policy in Japan, Australia, and the US). The directional bias was determined using moving averages and market expectations regarding central bank policies. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were established using Fibonacci retracements and price action: TP1 is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. TP2 is set at the 23.6% Fibonacci level. SL is placed between the 100% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels, slightly below the EMA200.

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Japanese Yen: Gains against US Dollar to remain limited – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists argue that recent Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) interventions and talk of joint United States (US)/Japan action have not changed the broader USD/JPY regime. They see momentum allowing a brief dip toward 153.00, but expect the pair to hold above that level and maintain a year-end forecast of 159.00. Intervention seen as buying time only "USD/JPY fell sharply to the 200d SMA for the first time in 2026 after two days of aggregate ~$87bn intervention from the MoF and headlines of potential joint intervention from both Japan and the US." "Our trend-following model shows USD/JPY trend turned from uptrend to neutral, but it is not yet in downtrend." "In the absence of more hawkish BoJ monetary policy and prolonged direct US involvement to intervene JPY, the combination of valuation, positioning, and trend-following would suggest limited short-term USD/JPY downside to 153.00, in our view." "For now, we maintain our year-end forecast of 159.00 for USD/JPY."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

South African Rand: Rate hold seen hurting currency – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur writes that despite South Africa’s reasonable recent performance under pressure from the Iran conflict, the central bank’s July decision to leave its key rate unchanged was surprising. With reform momentum slowing and the policy anchor weakened, he expects the South African Rand to suffer from this stance for an extended period. Policy surprise undermines Rand support "Although the South African economy is grappling with the effects of the Iran conflict, it has performed reasonably well in recent months." "While the government’s reform momentum has slowed somewhat, the central bank had served as a reliable anchor." "This made its decision in July to leave the key interest rate unchanged all the more surprising." "The ZAR is likely to suffer from this for some time to come."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

US Dollar: NFP and inflation mix complicate Fed path – BNY

BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam highlight the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases as key inputs for the Fed. They see consensus around 80,000 jobs, with a breakeven near 50,000 to keep unemployment steady. A weaker print could lower 2-year yields and rate-hike expectations. They stress sticky inflation, supply shocks, AI-related capex and constrained labor supply as factors keeping US rates pricing unsettled. Jobs, CPI and policy learning "This week features the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, and market expectations currently see around 80,000 new jobs. We don’t think the payrolls “breakeven rate” is much above 50,000 per month, if that. It currently doesn’t require large monthly employment gains to keep the unemployment rate steady, thanks to a much slower labor force growth than before the pandemic." "Inflation is sticky, but it’s also being whipped around by supply shocks. The AI build is raising questions about the capex outlook and its impact on jobs and productivity." "Labor supply is restrained, making inferences about the job market fraught, and the new Fed is still being revealed. All in all, a tricky mix of factors for the market to price, and it’s unlikely we’ve reached a steady state yet." "An additional NFP print and two more CPI releases follow Friday’s NFP report. Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole at the end of the month is another key event, although given his short track record so far, we won’t be holding our breath for much specificity on rates." "The market – and economists – continue to learn about the Warsh Fed."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

New Zealand Dollar: Jobs data and RBNZ hiking path – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole expects New Zealand’s Q2 labour data to broadly match the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May projections, which implied one to two hikes in Q3. He favours a hike in September or October, with rising conviction for September. Pesole sees NZD/USD holding near 0.585–0.590, with a year-end target at 0.59 and 0.60 increasingly attainable. Labour data seen matching RBNZ view "New Zealand releases its 2Q labour market data tonight. High-frequency indicators point to only 0.1% QoQ employment growth, while unemployment is expected to edge up from 5.3% to 5.4%. That would broadly match the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May projections, which implied 1-2 hikes in 3Q. Since July’s hike, markets have continued to price around 20-25bp of tightening for the 2 September meeting." "We have long favoured a hike in either September or October, but our conviction around a September move has increased recently. The main reason is that markets may be overstating the scale of the tightening cycle, with 75bp priced in by February." "We suspect two of the six policy committee members were not fully aligned with May’s hawkish shift, meaning the narrative may ultimately settle around a smaller 50bp "insurance" tightening cycle. If so, that would argue for an earlier move in September and then a pause." "NZD has been one of the stronger performers since the Fed meeting, clearly outpacing AUD after the latter suffered a sharp dovish repricing following a soft CPI release. NZD/USD may remain around the 0.585-0.590 range for now, but a September hike delivered with a slightly dovish tone could prompt some correction and open the door to a period of AUD outperformance relative to NZD." "Our year-end target for NZD/USD is currently 0.59, though 0.60 is looking increasingly attainable."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Japanese Yen: Joint intervention threat curtails selling – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has weakened modestly in Asia, with USD/JPY near its 200‑day moving average around 158.00 after recent joint intervention by Japan and the US. Japan is estimated to have bought close to USD 87 billion of Yen, while US participation is smaller but symbolically important. MUFG expects US intervention to remain limited and stresses that fundamental changes, including faster BoJ normalization, are needed for a sustained Yen recovery. Joint action limits speculative yen pressure "The yen has weakened modestly during the Asian trading session resulting in USD/JPY rising back up to within touching distance of the 200-day moving average at around 158.00 after hitting a low yesterday at 157.18." "On balance, we expect US intervention to support the yen to remain relatively small in scale." "While joint intervention may prove more effective at helping to provide support for the yen in the near-term, we still believe that it can only buy time." "There will need to be a change in fundamentals as well to encourage a sustainable reversal of the yen weakening trend that has been in place over the last five years." "More US pressure on Japan to allow

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Australian Dollar: Upside risk capped by 0.7075 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports AUD/USD briefly tested 0.7069 before retreating sharply to 0.6984, with the move seen as overdone. Intraday, the Australian Dollar is expected to range between 0.6980 and 0.7030. On a 1–3 week view, risks remain to the upside but advances are likely to face firm resistance at 0.7075, while a breach of 0.6980 would ease upside pressure. Range trade under key resistance "24-HOUR VIEW: After AUD opened and traded on firm footing yesterday, we noted that “upward momentum is building, but not significantly.” We pointed out that AUD “could rise further, but based on the prevailing momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 0.7075.” AUD appeared to have risen briefly to 0.7069 before staging a sharp retreat to a low of 0.6984. The sharp retreat appears to be overdone, and instead of continuing to decline today, AUD is more likely to trade in a range between 0.6980 and 0.7030." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following excerpt from our update yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 0.7040) remains valid: “While AUD closed higher for the fifth straight week last Friday (0.7020, +0.49%), upward momentum has not increased much. However, the risk remains on the upside, but any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 0.7075. To put it another way, AUD must break clearly above this level before further sustained advances can be expected. On the downside, a breach of 0.6980 would mean that the upside pressure has eased.”"

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Forex Trading

August 4, 2026

Chart of the Day: USD/JPY After Japan’s Intervention. The Exchange Rate Falls Below 160, but Pressure on the Yen Remains

USDJPY remains one of the key topics in the foreign exchange market following the recent reaction by Japanese authorities to the sharp depreciation of the yen. The pair has once again come under selling pressure and moved toward the 158 area, falling below the 160 level, which has repeatedly been described by Japanese government officials as a level requiring particular attention. The currency market intervention delivered a short-term effect. The yen strengthened significantly, and USDJPY moved away from the psychological 160 level. However, the key question that remains is whether this move can be sustained. History shows that currency intervention can effectively limit sharp exchange-rate movements, but without a change in the fundamental factors behind a currency’s weakness, its impact is often limited in duration. In the short term, USDJPY may continue declining and move toward the 157 level. From a technical perspective, the market has received a signal that the area around 160 remains a level where Japanese authorities are prepared to respond decisively. In the longer term, however, the outlook for the yen remains challenging, as the main factor influencing the exchange rate — the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan — continues to work against the Japanese currency. Source: xStation5 Factors Currently Shaping USDJPY Japan’s Intervention Stopped the Move, but Did Not Solve the Yen’s Problem The most important event of recent days was the reaction of Japanese authorities to the yen’s weakening. A move above 160 on USDJPY was considered too rapid and unfavorable, increasing pressure on households and businesses through higher import costs. The actions taken in the foreign exchange market helped limit the scale of the yen’s depreciation and pushed USDJPY below the 160 level. The market received a clear signal that Japan is willing to intervene if currency movements become excessively rapid. However, the problem is that intervention does not change the underlying fundamentals. If the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan remains wide, pressure on the yen may return. Therefore, the key question is no longer whether Japan can stop USDJPY from rising, but how long it can maintain the effects of such intervention without additional support from monetary policy. Fed and BoJ: Interest Rate Differential Still Works Against the Yen One of the most important factors for USDJPY remains the monetary policy stance of both central banks. At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Markets reduced expectations for further rate hikes in the United States, but US interest rates remain at very high levels compared with Japan. On the other side, the Bank of Japan began its rate-hiking cycle this year and has clearly indicated that the current move may not be the last. Markets are pricing in the possibility of another rate increase this year, especially if inflation and wage growth remain at appropriate levels. Even if the BoJ decides on another rate hike, the scale of the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will remain significant. This factor has been the main argument behind selling the yen for many months and remains one of the biggest challenges facing the Japanese currency. Bank of Japan Is Changing Its Stance, but the Yen Needs More Support The start of a rate-hiking cycle by the Bank of Japan is an important shift after many years of ultra-loose monetary policy. Markets are increasingly focusing on the possibility of further policy normalization by the Japanese central bank. The problem, however, remains the pace of these changes. The BoJ continues to act cautiously because Japan’s economy is significantly more sensitive to higher financing costs than the US economy. For the yen, it will therefore be crucial not only whether the BoJ raises interest rates, but also whether markets believe the central bank is prepared to continue this process in the coming months. If expectations for the BoJ rise faster than expectations for the Fed, the yen could receive additional support. At this stage, however, the interest rate differential remains the main challenge for the Japanese currency. Oil and the Persian Gulf Increase Risks for the Yen Another factor affecting USDJPY is the geopolitical situation and energy prices. Tensions around the Persian Gulf and the risk of disruptions to oil supplies remain important market factors. Japan, as an economy heavily dependent on energy imports, is particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices. Higher energy costs may increase inflationary pressure in Japan, while at the same time worsening the country’s trade balance through higher import expenses. Historically, such factors have often had a negative impact on the yen. Additionally, during periods of rising geopolitical uncertainty, the US dollar often benefits as a global safe-haven currency. This means that even amid challenges facing the US economy, the dollar may remain supported against the yen. Japan’s Fiscal Risks Are Another Challenge for the Currency Beyond monetary policy, the market is paying increasing attention to Japan’s fiscal situation. Plans to increase public spending and possible tax cuts are raising questions about further growth in the country’s debt burden. For the currency market, the key issue is whether fiscal policy will support economic growth or increase concerns about the sustainability of public finances. If markets conclude that Japan will pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy without sufficient spending control, this could limit the potential for further yen appreciation. USDJPY Ahead of Another Test The current decline in USDJPY shows that the 160 level remains a threshold where Japanese authorities are prepared to intervene. In the short term, the pair may continue moving lower, particularly if markets further reduce expectations regarding Fed policy. In the longer term, however, the situation remains more complicated. The yen continues to face pressure due to the large interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, and currency intervention alone does not change the fundamental market picture. The future direction of USDJPY will depend primarily on whether the Fed begins easing monetary policy faster or whether the Bank of Japan delivers more aggressive interest rate increases. For now, the market has received a clear signal that the area around 160 is being defended by Tokyo. The remaining question is whether this will be only a short-term correction or the beginning of a more lasting change in the yen trend. Key Takeaways Japan’s intervention pushed USDJPY below the 160 level, but the sustainability of the move remains the biggest uncertainty. In the short term, the pair may move toward 157, but long-term pressure on the yen remains. The Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, and the difference between US and Japanese monetary policy remains unfavorable for the yen. The Bank of Japan has started a rate-hiking cycle, and markets are pricing in the possibility of another move, but the interest rate gap remains significant. Oil prices and geopolitical tensions may further affect the yen through higher energy import costs and increased risk aversion. The future direction of USDJPY will depend mainly on whether changing expectations regarding the Fed occur faster than further monetary policy normalization by the BoJ.

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Earnings

August 4, 2026

BP and HSBC in focus, as yen rally takes a break

The UK’s corporate sector is in focus this morning, for all the right reasons after Astra Zeneca fell 8% on Monday. HSBC and BP have both reported stellar Q2 earnings, which may help the FTSE 100 today, after it lagged global peers on Monday and fell 0.1%, while other European and US indices posted strong gains. HSBC reports stellar results Looking at HSBC first, it exceeded analyst estimates and reported profits of $10.1bn for Q2, a 60% increase YoY. It benefitted from higher net interest income, which rose by 9% in Q2 as the HSBC capitalises on elevated global interest rates. Revenue also rose by 16% last quarter. Some $2bn of the increase in profits were down to one off items, so investors may worry that this will not be repeated. However, profitability levels remain high, and the company expects its return on tangible equity, its main measure of profitability, to stay at 17% for this year. Strong results could be clouded by calls for higher taxes These results were also heavy on shareholder sweeteners, which may boost investors interest later today. HSBC announced a second dividend for this year and a share buyback of $1bn, to be completed in the next 3 months. The share price has risen by 10% in the past month, and a lot of good news may already be priced in. The share price has slipped in overnight trading in the US, and HSBC could be a victim of its own success. There is political pressure on PM Andy Burnham to tax banks more, and HSBC’s results and high profit levels could add to calls for a higher levy on the sector, which could act as a counterweight to banking stocks later on Tuesday. BP’s results suggest new direction for firm is working BP also reported results today. Markets were expecting a big report and they got one. Profits doubled in Q2 as oil price volatility surged. Replacement cost profit was $5.7bn last quarter, higher than the $5bn expected. Meg gets a helping hand from market conditions New CEO Meg O’Neil received a boost from overall market conditions, but these results are a vote of confidence in BP’s change in direction under O’Neil. She has simplified the business, made it refocus on hydrocarbons at the expense of renewables, and has navigated a period of internal volatility with the ousting of its chairman in May. Big oil criticism fails to highlight huge amounts of tax they already pay The company is likely to face calls that it is profiting from a cost-of-living crisis. O’Neil addressed this issue in the earnings report, saying that they are focussing on boosting supply of critical fuels like diesel and jet fuel, to alleviate pressures. Since commodity prices are set on global markets, there is little that BP can do about this apart from manage supply. There are already massive windfall taxes on oil and gas companies, and BP reported that its effective global tax rate is 33-37% for Q2. It also paid $1.2bn in UK tax last year and it is likely to pay significantly more this year due to rising revenues. This is unlikely to placate Big Oil’s critics, including from arch-capitalist Donald Trump, who said that US oil majors are making too much money. These comments from the President could mean that investors need to factor in trickier political waters for oil majors in the lead up to the UK Budget and the Midterms this autumn, which could stymie their share price gains. Have we reached the high point for BP? Overall, BP’s share price is already higher by 27% this year. Oil prices have been volatile in recent weeks but have generally been on a downwards trajectory in Q3, which means that profit levels may not be maintained for this quarter. This could thwart further meaningful gains in the share price on Tuesday, and any reaction to these results could be mild, as a lot of the good news for BP is already priced in. Can the tech rally be replicated? Stocks had a fantastic start to August, with the US leading the way on Monday as the tech rally continued. The question now is, how long will it last? Early on Tuesday, futures prices in Europe and the US are moderately higher, suggesting that the rally might be fading, but is yet to pause. The deep tech sell off is over as we start a new month, and Magnificent 7 names soared on Monday, with large gains for Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft. The latter has seen its share price rise 23% in the last 5 days, although it fell 0.3% in overnight trading, suggesting that the rally in tech may take a pause later today. Oil prices rise again as negotiation confusion remains The decline in the oil price was one of the drivers of animal spirits on Monday, however, Brent crude is higher by 1.5% this morning and is back above $85 per barrel after Donald Trump said that talks with Iran were going ahead, even thought Tehran has denied this is the case. Although the US called off a major strike on Iran over the weekend, there is still confusion about the status of negotiations between the US and Iran, which makes it hard to predict where the oil price will go next. If we see oil prices rise in the coming days, then it may be harder for stocks to maintain their upward momentum. Where do stocks go next? For now, a short-term pause in the tech rally is to be expected. While valuations for US stocks have fallen to attractive levels in recent weeks, they are creeping higher. For example, Microsoft’s P/E ratio fell 42% compared to last year and was at 20 times earnings before the recent rally. Now, its share price is 26 times earnings, after the recent blistering rally. Thus, while large cap growth stocks are riding a wave of enthusiasm, part of the drive higher was decent valuations. Can the rally persist in the medium term if tech stocks continue to get more expensive? Yen weakens for first time since intervention The yen is also in focus, after the unprecedented FX intervention to support Japan’s currency, The yen is lower by 0.3% on Tuesday morning after a 4% rally since Thursday. This pair is trading about 100 points from the low at 155.60 this morning. This does not mean that the intervention has failed, far from it. In the past, when the US intervened in USD/JPY it has marked a turning point for the currency. The Japanese authorities have also said that they will tap the US’s FIMA repo liquidity facility, designed for central banks to access USD liquidity without the need to sell their Treasuries, to ‘promote foreign exchange stability’ in the future. This is interesting, since it suggests that one reason why the US helped Japan is to protect its own Treasury market. If the yen became so weak that Japanese authorities had to sell assets like US Treasuries to raise cash to buy the yen, then it could have destabilized the entire financial system, pushing up Japanese and US sovereign bond yields. This intervention puts a lid on that threat, but for how long? Japanese long end bond yields rose slightly on Tuesday, and at some stage Japanese interest rates will need to reflect the reality of inflation to keep the yen on a stable path for the long term. SpaceX in focus Ahead today, SpaceX results will be in focus. These will grab the headlines, since they are the first results after its mega IPO. However, they are not necessarily a read on the broader tech or AI sector, since SpaceX is another of Musk’s idiosyncratic businesses. Chart: USD/JPY

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Equities: Cyclical rotation extends as tech recovers – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that global equities began August with fresh all-time highs in several MSCI indices. Gains were driven by sector rotation, with software rebounding 16% over the past week and lower Oil prices supporting sentiment. Defensive sectors lagged, while Asian equities traded lower on scepticism around regional tech and semiconductors despite firmer US and European futures. Global indices hit highs on sector rotation "Equities started August on a positive note with fresh all-time highs for several of the MSCI world indices." "The move was driven by a strong sector rotation, combining further relief in software, which has now recovered 16% over the past week, with lower oil prices following more constructive rhetoric around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz." "The cyclical rotation seen over the past three sessions therefore continued, while several defensive sectors lower despite the solid index gains." "In Asia this morning, sentiment is somewhat weaker as scepticism around Asian tech and semiconductors weighs on regional markets." "As a result, Asian equities trade lower even as both US and European futures move modestly higher."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Oil: Deal optimism drives sharp selloff – ING

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices, including ICE Brent, fell sharply on optimism over a potential US–Iran Middle East deal. They highlight that markets may be overreacting given ongoing uncertainty, Iranian denials of talks, and renewed security risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea. European gas also weakened, but storage and demand dynamics look more comfortable than in 2021. Middle East deal hopes hit Brent "Oil prices dropped sharply yesterday on rising optimism that the US and Iran may be moving closer to reviving a Middle East deal." "ICE Brent settled more than 7% lower on the day, after President Trump called off strikes against Iran, aiming to get a deal across the line." "He also suggested that talks between the US and Iran have already resumed. Iranian officials continue to deny that any negotiations are under way, insisting that current discussions with Oman are limited to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz." "The scale of the sell-off seems fairly overdone, given that there’s still considerable uncertainty." "And with Iran denying that any talks are underway and Trump issuing warnings if no deal materialises, the backdrop clearly leaves ample room for a renewed escalation." "In the Black Sea, recent days have seen more loading activity at the CPC terminal, which ships Kazakh oil from Russia’s coast. Loadings had been disrupted in recent weeks amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure." "There have also been risks for oil tankers operating in and around the terminal, leaving shipowners hesitant to load. For now, flows into the terminal still appear to be running below normal levels."

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Banks

August 4, 2026

Euro: Consolidation with upside trigger at 1.1565 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights EUR/USD’s recent sharp rise and subsequent consolidation after a failed attempt to sustain gains above 1.1558. Intraday, the Euro is expected to trade between 1.1485 and 1.1540, while a close above 1.1565 could open the way toward 1.1600. Longer term, a break of 1.1390/1.1410 targets 1.1210. Range trade while eyeing 1.1565 "24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, EUR fell to a low of 1.1453 and then rebounded sharply. When EUR was at 1.1530 yesterday, we highlighted that it “could continue to rebound but note that 1.1565 is expected to provide significant resistance.” We added, “to keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1495, with minor support at 1.1510.” Our view did not materialise, as EUR rose briefly to 1.1558, fell to 1.1499 and then closed at 1.1507 (-0.17%). The current price movements appear to be part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1485 and 1.1540." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR rose sharply and closed higher by 1.41% last week. Yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated the following: “The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.1455 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached."

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Markets

August 4, 2026

XAU/USD bulls seem hesitant as inflation-led Fed hike bets and US-Iran tensions support USD

Gold struggles to gain any meaningful traction as the US-Iran uncertainty supports the USD. Fed hike bets remain on the table amid inflation risks stemming from rebounding oil prices. Hawkish Fed expectations should cap the commodity as traders await the US NFP report. Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Furthermore, recovering crude oil prices keep inflation risks and US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets on the table, helping the Greenback to build on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since mid-June and cap the non-yielding bullion. On Monday, Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place with the US, sparking an angry backlash from President Donald Trump, who had cited the resumption of bilateral talks as justification for calling off attacks over the weekend. Moreover, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly attacked a US military base in Kuwait with at least three drones. This, in turn, tempers hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war, prompting traders to price in the geopolitical risk premium and supporting the safe-haven Greenback. Meanwhile, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rezaee, dismissed Trump's claims that the Strait of Hormuz is on course to reopen. Rezaee further warned that Iran will not permit any unauthorised shipping route through the critical waterway other than the one designated by the Islamic Republic and that Tehran would target US warships for that purpose. This comes on top of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels' naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and fuel concerns regarding global energy supplies, helping oil prices to recover a part of the previous day's losses. Investors remain worried that elevated energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures and force the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assigning over a 60% probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September and see over an 85% chance of a hike by the end of this year. The bets were reaffirmed by the US ISM PMI released on Monday, which showed that US manufacturing sector activity increased to the highest level in more than four years in July. This further favors USD bulls. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial data will be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the downside. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis: Gold could attract fresh sellers at higher levels amid bearish setup From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair holds well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and keeps a bearish near-term bias within a familiar range held over the past month or so. Moreover, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent decline, reaffirming the negative outlook for the Gold price. Meanwhile, momentum indicators are not yet supportive of a clear recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.48 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lacklustre buying interest. This, in turn, suggests that bounces are likely to be capped by overhead supply. The top boundary of the trading range, pegged ahead of the $4,200 mark, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. A move beyond could lift Gold to the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33. Bulls would need to reclaim a technically significant barrier to alleviate the prevailing downside bias and reopen the path toward higher highs. On the downside, immediate support is inferred from recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 region, where buyers previously emerged. A daily close below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to declining further in the absence of clearly defined floors under the said handle.

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Corn Rises Toward Multi-Week Highs

Corn futures rose around $4.5 per bushel, moving back toward multi-week highs as mounting concerns over crop losses in Europe and parts of China outweighed expectations for another strong US harvest. Persistent heatwaves and prolonged dry weather across Western Europe, particularly in France, have severely stressed corn crops, prompting lower yield forecasts and raising fears of tighter global supplies. China is also experiencing hot and dry conditions in several key agricultural regions, adding to uncertainty over global feed grain production. Still, gains were capped by generally favorable crop prospects in the US, where forecasts continue to call for timely rainfall across much of the Midwest after brief periods of heat, supporting expectations for a large harvest. Market participants are also closely monitoring upcoming USDA crop condition reports for any signs that recent warmer weather has begun to affect yield potential.

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Soybeans Hold Near 1-Month Low

Soybean futures traded around $11.7 per bushel, holding near a four-week low as favorable growing conditions across the US Midwest outweighed renewed Chinese buying. China recently purchased about 1 million metric tons of new-crop US soybeans, including 14–16 cargoes, with the USDA confirming nearly 500,000 tons in export sales. State buyers took advantage of last week's price decline, while purchases were also linked to China's commitment to increase US soybean imports ahead of President Xi Jinping's expected US visit in September. The purchases provided support to prices but were insufficient to outweigh bearish supply expectations. Market attention remains focused on crop development as favorable US weather during the critical pod-filling stage kept yield prospects favorable. Elsewhere, diplomatic progress in the Middle East and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove crude oil prices lower, weighing on biofuel demand.

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Markets

August 4, 2026

XAG/USD holds gains above $58.50 on US-Iran talk signals

Silver gains support as US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz ease global oil supply. President Trump called his latest talk offer Iran's "last chance" after canceling a major military strike against the nation. Markets are pricing in nearly a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September. Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $58.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver prices are receiving support as non-yielding assets benefit from geopolitical and economic monitoring. Investors are closely tracking developments in United States (US)-Iran talks for signals regarding the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously evaluating the broader outlook for US Federal Reserve monetary policy. Diplomatic tensions remain high after US President Donald Trump described his latest offer of discussions as a "last chance" for Iran, following his decision to call off a major military strike. Trump expressed expectations that formal negotiations would begin shortly to secure the Strait of Hormuz and address long-standing US concerns over Iran's nuclear program. However, Iranian leadership quickly dismissed the proposal. General Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, firmly rejected the conditions, declaring that Iran will absolutely not permit a second corridor in the Strait. He further warned that any foreign warships or military forces deployed for that purpose would be targeted. On the monetary policy front, market participants continue to recalibrate their expectations following the central bank's decision to hold interest rates steady in July. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in approximately a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting. Williams reiterates confidence in Fed path as markets weigh inflation risks Fed’s Williams delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score slightly above the 5.8/10 historical average, underscoring confidence that current rate policy is “well positioned” to achieve the 2% inflation goal. The repeated commitment to act if inflation drifts off the 2% path, alongside optimism that price pressures will gradually ease and that the Middle East war’s inflation impact will cool, signals a steady-hawk stance rather than an aggressive tightening bias. Acknowledgment of market pricing as “valuable information” but not binding, and the dismissal of financial stability risks from AI investment, reinforces a message of policy patience within a firmly anti-inflation framework. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.47 points to 146.76, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains deep in hawkish territory above the 100 neutral line. This suggests that, despite the slightly stronger-than-baseline tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker, markets see Williams’ remarks as consistent with an already well-telegraphed Fed stance rather than a fresh hawkish escalation.

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Energies

August 4, 2026

WTI trades with positive bias below mid-$79.00s on Iran uncertainty, supply concerns

WTI gains some positive traction on Tuesday amid the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz fuel supply concerns and also lends support. The lack of follow-through buying warrants caution before placing aggressive bullish bets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to build on the overnight bounce following an intraday slump to levels below mid-$77.00s. The commodity currently trades around the $79.40 region, up 0.75% for the day, though it lacks bullish conviction amid the uncertainty over the ongoing war in the Middle ‌East. In the latest developments, Iran said on Monday ​there were no talks underway with the US, and there is no plan for any meetings. This contradicted US President Donald Trump, who has cited resumption of negotiations as justification for calling off attacks over the weekend. Moreover, unconfirmed reports of drone strikes on US assets in Kuwait temper hopes for a potential US-Iran peace deal, prompting traders to price in the geopolitical risk premium and offering some support to crude oil prices. Meanwhile, Mohsen Rezaee, a senior military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, said that Tehran will not permit any shipping route through the strategic waterway other than the one designated by the Islamic Republic. Rezaee further warned that US vessels and forces could face serious risk and casualties if the current standoff over the strategic waterway continues. Adding to this, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels' naval blockade against Saudi Arabia further raises concerns regarding global energy supplies. Rabobank’s Benjamin Picton characterises the recurring tensions around the Strait of Hormuz as a kind of “Groundhog Day” for markets, warning that “later in the week strikes typically resume, oil prices rally, equities sell, and bond yields rise.” He cautions that there is “every chance of that happening this week,” even though, for now, the prevailing impression is one of “‘strikes for strikes’,” with investors wary that the familiar pattern of renewed action and risk-off moves could yet reassert itself. This largely overshadows the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to raise production from September and acts as tailwind for crude oil prices. The lack of strong follow-through buying, however, warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets on the commodity and positioning for any meaningful appreciation.

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Platinum Stays Near November Lows

Platinum futures traded around $1,650 an ounce, staying near late-November lows as investors weighed easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East against persistent expectations of higher US interest rates. Despite leaving interest rates unchanged last week, markets continued to price in a Fed rate hike later this year following recent hawkish signals from officials, weighing on non-yielding assets such as platinum. However, diplomatic efforts in the US-Iran conflict and discussions over the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provided support across the precious metals complex. At the same time, the long-term supply outlook remained supportive, with the platinum market still expected to post another annual deficit. South African producer Valterra Platinum also reported a sharp rise in interim profit, citing stronger platinum-group metal prices and growing demand from AI-related infrastructure, which it expects to increase significantly over the coming years.

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Cattle Fade Lower to Kick Off August

Live cattle futures were 7 to 72 cents lower across most contracts on Monday, fading early gains. Cash trade was at $232-233 last week, with a few at $235. Early bids surfaced near $233 on Monday, but no volume was reported. Feeder cattle futures saw losses of 20 cents to $2.40.  The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $1.06 on July 31 to $346.89. The Monday OKC feeder cattle auction showed 2,662 head sold, with prices listed $5-10 higher on steers and +$5-15 on heifers. Calves were steady on steers, with heifer calves up $10-15. NASS Crop Progress data showed the US pasture rating at 25% gd/ex, dropping 4% from the week prior. The Brugler500 index fell 11 points to 259. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the Monday afternoon report. Choice boxes were up $5.35 at $366.73, with Select $1.78 lower to $344.45. USDA’s Federally inspected cattle slaughter for Monday was estimated at 90,000 head. That is down 2,000 head from the previous Monday and 11,616 head below the same week last year. Aug 26 Live Cattle  closed at $231.100, down $0.650, Oct 26 Live Cattle  closed at $226.725, down $0.525, Dec 26 Live Cattle  closed at $226.225, down $0.725, Aug 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $347.825, down $0.200, Sep 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $342.550, down $1.225, Oct 26 Feeder Cattle  closed at $333.700, down $1.650,

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Harvest-Friendly Weather in Brazil Weighs on Arabica Coffee Prices

September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed down -12.60 (-3.79%) on Monday, and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed up +4 (+0.11%). Coffee prices settled mixed on Monday.  Arabica coffee closed sharply lower as drier conditions in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions should allow for the pace of the country’s coffee harvest to pick up. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that no rain fell in the week ended August 2 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supportive of coffee prices.  The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 58.3% complete as of July 24, behind the year-earlier pace of 67%.  On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%.  Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots on July 22, although inventories were mildly below that level at 4,213 lots on Monday.  By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 260,720 bags on Monday. The latest USDA biannual forecast was bearish for coffee prices.  On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.  The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On Sunday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jul) rose by +21.1% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Cocoa Prices Surge on Ghana Crop Worries

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up +542 (+10.04%) on Monday, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed up +391 (+9.75%). Cocoa prices settled sharply higher on Monday for a second session and surged to 2-week highs. Cocoa prices are rallying on positive carryover from last Friday on concerns over cocoa production in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer.  Last Friday, Ghana's cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected Ghana's 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern.  Disruptions to global cocoa supplies are another supportive factor for prices.  Global supplies could potentially be disrupted amid the near standstill of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea due to the US-Iran war.  Cocoa prices dropped to 1-month lows last Tuesday on signs of larger global cocoa supplies amid suspect demand.  Monday's cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), up +20% from the same period a year ago.  Also, Bloomberg reported on July 16 that Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT.  Rising cocoa inventories are bearish for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,375,119 bags last Tuesday. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears.  Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y. On the positive side, StoneX last Wednesday cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Cocoa prices have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  However, a senior manager at Expana said on July 23 that the most recent surveys show a substantial improvement in cocoa pod counts compared with the early surveys.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  The outlook for a smaller global cocoa surplus is supportive of cocoa prices.  On July 23, Transgraph Consulting forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  Cocoa prices also have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  The outlook for smaller cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer, supports prices.  Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. 

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Markets

August 4, 2026

Sugar Prices Climb on Forecasts for Global Deficits

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed up +0.35 (+2.39%) on Monday, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed up +7.90 (+1.71%). Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Monday, with NY sugar posting a 3-week high and London sugar posting a 2-week high.  The outlook for tighter future sugar supplies is propelling prices higher after Covrig Analytics on Monday said it now expects a global sugar deficit in 2026/27 of -300,000 MT, compared to a June forecast for a +100,00 MT surplus. Meanwhile, Green Pool Commodity Specialists last Wednesday raised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit to -3.3 MMT from a June estimate of -1.76 MMT, and StoneX last Tuesday raised its 2026/27 global sugar deficit forecast to -1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT. Concerns over India’s sugar crop are supporting prices.  Last Friday, India’s Meteorological Department said that monsoon rainfall in India during August and September “will likely be below normal.”  India’s Earth Science Ministry has warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  Last Thursday, NY sugar matched a 5-month low amid the prospects of higher Indian sugar output as monsoon rains had improved.  India’s Meteorological Department reported on Monday that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 12% below normal as of August 3, a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30.  Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  India’s weather office recently lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season to 90% of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April.  As a bullish factor, Unica reported on June 22 that 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production through May is 6.838 MMT, down -2.0% y/y as millers ramped up ethanol production. The percent of sugarcane used for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills dropped to 41.42% from 50.09% as cane crushing for ethanol production rose to 58.38% from 49.91% last year.  Also, sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts that global sugar production will fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, and that there will be a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on Tuesday raised its forecast to a global sugar deficit of 1.7 MMT from a May estimate of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecasts that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Energies

August 4, 2026

Heating Oil Holds Losses

US heating oil futures traded below $3.9 per gallon in early August, holding recent losses as markets assessed developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said his latest offer of talks was Tehran's "last chance" and expressed confidence that the key waterway would fully reopen. Although Iran denied holding direct talks with the US, it said discussions with Oman to increase shipping through the strait were making progress. Meanwhile, Gulf producers continued to pursue alternative export routes, with Turkey and Iraq extending a pipeline agreement, while Kazakhstan restarted its crude shipments through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium following a temporary disruption. Separately, Russian diesel supplies remained constrained by ongoing Ukrainian attacks on major oil refineries, prompting Moscow to extend its diesel and gasoline export ban through January 2027.

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Energies

August 4, 2026

Gasoline Near Three-Week Low

US gasoline futures traded below $3.0 per gallon in early August, holding near a three-week low as markets remained focused on developments in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said his latest offer of talks was Tehran's "last chance" and reiterated his confidence that the key shipping route would fully reopen. While Iran denied holding direct talks with the US, it said negotiations with Oman to increase traffic through the strait were making progress. Meanwhile, Gulf producers continued to develop alternative export routes, with Turkey and Iraq renewing a pipeline agreement, while Kazakhstan restored its crude flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium after a temporary disruption. In Russia, the government extended its diesel and gasoline export ban through January 2027 as fuel shortages persisted amid continued Ukrainian strikes on major oil refineries.

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Turkish Lira: Trade data underline external pressures – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose analyses Turkey’s June trade figures, highlighting a 26.2% year-on-year widening of the trade deficit to USD 10.4 billion. While exports and imports both rebounded after May’s holiday distortions, imports are running stronger than exports. Ghose stresses that the trade deficit remains around 6% of GDP, underscoring persistent balance of payments vulnerabilities. Deficit, imports and balance of payments "Turkey’s latest trade data for June showed the external trade deficit widening by 26.2%y/y to USD 10.4bn. Exports rose by 21.7%y/y to US$24.9bn, while imports increased slightly faster, up by 23.0%y/y to US$35.3bn. On the surface, this appeared to confirm a strong month for trade, although at the cost of some worsening of the trade balance." "But these headline figures are misleading. They partly reflect the reversal of holiday-related distortions in May, and the year-on-year comparison says little about the latest incremental trend. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, both exports and imports recovered after dipping in May (as the situation slightly stabilised in the Middle East). This means that the June data should not be read as a simple story of recovering trade volumes; if anything imports are running stronger than exports." "The composition of imports gives the same message. Intermediate goods imports were up by 30.0%y/y and capital goods imports by 19.6%y/y, while consumer goods imports were lower by 1.2%y/y. This supports the idea of risk aversion, with consumer confidence deteriorating while industry wanted to stock up rapidly on raw materials." "The data were not surprising, but they highlight the adverse condition of Turkey’s balance of payments despite years of attempted monetary tightening to try and correct macroeconomic imbalances such as the current-account gap." "These monthly details aside, overall, it is not a comforting picture: as far as the trade deficit is concerned, it has been more or less flat at around 6% of GDP in recent months. The deficit has not been improving in any convincing underlying sense."

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Singapore Dollar: Upside bias capped against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD slipped to 1.2809 but closed near 1.2821, with intraday bias still pointing lower. However, he highlights 1.2790 as significant support that may hold unless momentum improves, while 1.2845 marks the level that would negate the downside bias. Over the 1–3 week horizon, further losses require a clear break below 1.2790. Downside risk constrained by support "24-HOUR VIEW: USD fell to a low of 1.2809 last Friday before closing largely unchanged at 1.2821 (+0.06%). While the bias remains tilted to the downside today, given that there is no clear increase in downward momentum, any decline may not break the significant support at 1.2790. On the upside, a breach of 1.2845 would indicate that the downside bias has faded." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD fell sharply last week, closing down by 0.67% at 1.2821. Strong momentum suggests further downside risk, but USD must break and hold below the significant support at 1.2790 before further declines are likely. The risk of USD breaking clearly below 1.2790 will remain intact as long as USD holds below 1.2875 (‘strong resistance’ level). Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 1.2790 is 1.2765."

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Latin America: Duration favored over carry – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY sees Brazil and Mexico operating in a more comfortable policy environment after the Fed decision, with anchored United States (US) front-end yields supporting emerging-market duration. Yu argues that Latin American sovereign debt offers better risk-reward than FX, given crowded positioning and limited upside, while softer U.S. real rates and Dollar weakness improve the inflation outlook through the import channel for regional assets. Duration opportunity in Latam markets "Central bank decisions in Brazil and Mexico will likely take place in a slightly more comfortable policy environment due to market reaction to the Fed decision. Front-end US yields are better anchored, and the breakout in US breakeven rates have significantly undermined the case for US real yields, which matters greatly for EM duration." "Asset selection remains challenging for the region. Contrary to our expectations, the global carry trade has failed to make much headway amid cross-asset volatility and challenging geopolitics." "The fall in dollar front-end rates has improved risk-reward, but we see more potential in sovereign debt. Latin American paper performed poorly through end-June and early July, leading to clear rebalancing potential toward month end." "With the decline in US real rates and dollar softness, the inflation outlook is set to improve further through the import channel, and the region is less exposed to global supply stress in any case." "Lower hedge ratios than envisaged is a good way to pick up some FX exposure in the meantime."

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Geopolitics

August 3, 2026

Geopolitical – Pride vs. Peace. Facts vs. Fiction

Donald Trump has once again announced negotiations with Iran and an almost inevitable “deal.” The oil market reacted very sharply again, but stock market moves proved much shallower than in previous, similar episodes. What are representatives of both countries declaring, what are markets pricing in, and what is probably happening? Between inflation and elections Many market participants are unable to understand and explain many of Donald Trump’s actions and statements and often over-interpret limited information or see phenomena that are not actually occurring. The biggest misunderstanding would be to attribute desperation to the US president because of the politically lethal combination of high fuel prices and the midterm elections. In the US context, fuel prices really are crucial, but the story is not as simple as looking at the average gasoline price in the United States, especially when it comes to gasoline. Overlaying the electoral map on the fuel price map reveals a very important pattern. “Republican” (red) states have much cheaper fuel than “Democratic” (blue) states. There are several reasons, including: Emissions standards Logistics Tax rates Local supply and demand balance What is crucial to understand, however, is that despite real inflation pressure and the real problem of rising fuel prices, the situation is not as bad for Donald Trump’s voters and the Republican Party. It is also worth briefly describing the mechanism of the midterm elections facing the US. Midterms concern the House of Representatives and the Senate. Currently, even relatively optimistic forecasts for Democrats indicate that Republicans will keep the Senate, and the margin in the House will be razor-thin (around 5 to 10 members out of 435). Other indicators of the condition of the American economy, while leaving room for improvement in places, remain acceptable. Consumer spending and GDP are rising despite slower momentum. Inflation and unemployment have slowed their growth to almost zero. From a military perspective: The situation looks similar. US military assets in the Middle East region account for only 5 to 10% (depending on how they are counted) of the total. The ammunition situation is also not as “critical” as even some Pentagon representatives warn.The real and urgent problem is stocks of the most advanced interceptor missiles, mainly the PAC-3 (the so-called Patriot).Current stocks of these missiles can be estimated at a few weeks of intensive fighting. The real and urgent problem is stocks of the most advanced interceptor missiles, mainly the PAC-3 (the so-called Patriot). Current stocks of these missiles can be estimated at a few weeks of intensive fighting. As for offensive ammunition, certain shortages can be observed among tactical missiles (mainly Tomahawks and JASSM).However, this is not universal ammunition, these missiles are intended for precise long-range strikes. However, this is not universal ammunition, these missiles are intended for precise long-range strikes. The US does not have to limit the scale of attacks, stocks of simpler and cheaper ammunition are still sufficient for many years of fighting. Siege Many opinion-forming centers attribute not only initiative but often an advantage to the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is far from the truth. Iran’s economic situation is not a case of declining growth, a slowdown, or a recession, but a severe and serious humanitarian crisis that will only worsen. The minimum wage in Iran, about $85 per month, has already lost about 20% of its average real value after being raised by 60% this year. This is an average figure, because inflation in food products reaches hundreds of percent.In Iran, 70% of the minimum wage must be spent on food to ensure a level slightly above biological subsistence, making Iran one of the poorest countries on earth. In Iran, 70% of the minimum wage must be spent on food to ensure a level slightly above biological subsistence, making Iran one of the poorest countries on earth. Even worse is unemployment. An average unemployment rate of 9% plus about 25% unemployment among the young would be disastrous on its own.However, the seriousness of the situation becomes clear only when confronted with the estimated labor force participation rate, about 35%, a little more than half the values observed in developed countries. However, the seriousness of the situation becomes clear only when confronted with the estimated labor force participation rate, about 35%, a little more than half the values observed in developed countries. Despite large oil reserves, fuel and energy shortages in Iran are widespread.The fuel deficit is about 20% and the power deficit in the electricity grid already exceeds 30% today. The fuel deficit is about 20% and the power deficit in the electricity grid already exceeds 30% today. Despite episodic shelling of ships in the Strait of Hormuz and facilities on the Persian Gulf coast, Iran’s military situation today is no better than its economic one. Most of Iran’s proxies have been eliminated or neutralized, ports remain blocked, and the intensity of Iran’s missile attacks has fallen by about 90% compared with the beginning of the conflict. While Iran’s drone and missile stocks may (but do not have to) be very large, its ability to launch them is limited. Most mobile launchers have already been destroyed. Base scenario The midterm elections are not as important to Donald Trump as some might think, especially in the context of fuel prices and war, but it cannot be said that the US president does not care about his party’s fate. Therefore, to partially and/or temporarily reduce fuel prices, Trump may decide on temporary and potentially significant concessions toward the Republic of Iran. This will be aimed solely at lowering fuel costs. The core of the conflict, Iran’s nuclear program, remains unaddressed and is probably impossible to resolve through diplomacy. If Trump feels that the Republicans’ position in the Senate (key to impeaching a president) is secure, then hostilities in Iran will probably resume. After the elections, the president will be much less constrained by public opinion and may decide on escalation or even a limited ground invasion. Doubts about the feasibility of such an operation are also exaggerated. Iran is not a fortress but a prison. The IRGC and the Iranian military are capable of maintaining the current власти, but there can be no talk of a victorious confrontation with US forces. What will markets do? Such a course of events for oil outlines a fairly specific price range for oil, the dollar, and gold. The episodic and unpredictable nature of the conflict and its pauses will keep oil in a wide consolidation range between $70 and $90 per barrel. Escalation of the conflict will probably push oil prices above $100, perhaps even toward $120 per barrel, but levels significantly above that threshold are unlikely. Gold and the dollar will react to expectations regarding the Fed. Rising oil prices will mean a gradual increase in inflation expectations: If the Fed chooses inaction, gold could gain significantly on fears of a loss of purchasing power in the currency. At the same time, the dollar would weaken, possibly materially. If the Fed decides to raise rates, gold would face another wave of declines, the dollar would strengthen significantly, and indices could experience a deep correction. Taking into account the broader context and the Fed’s behavior in recent weeks, variant #2 currently has a slight edge.

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Commentary

August 3, 2026

SpaceX Preview: It’s Time to See How Much of Its Valuation Is Based on Business and How Much on Promise

SpaceX’s stock market debut was one of the most anticipated events in the market, but the first few weeks of trading quickly demonstrated how difficult it can be to translate enormous technological ambitions into a stable market valuation. The IPO price was $135 per share. The stock subsequently climbed above the $200 mark before falling back to around $110. Such significant volatility is not merely a reaction to current news. Above all, it shows that investors are trying to answer a fundamental question: how much of the current share price is supported by an established business, and how much reflects value assigned to projects that may deliver their greatest benefits only years from now? The upcoming earnings report will be SpaceX’s first real test as a publicly traded company. It may not yet determine the company’s long term value, but it could show whether the current valuation remains justified following the sharp correction from its highs. The bar has been set extremely high, both by Elon Musk, who has spent years building a narrative around breakthrough technologies, and by investors who were willing to value the company far above its IPO price. In SpaceX’s case, however, the financial results themselves may not be the most important factor. The market will be far more interested in how management describes the company’s growth trajectory, the scale of future investment, and the pace of development across its key projects. The first earnings report is expected to answer not only how much the company earned in the most recent quarter, but, more importantly, whether the business is growing quickly enough to justify the enormous expectations surrounding its future. Key Expectations and Figures IPO price: $135 per share Post IPO peak: nearly $200 Current share price: approximately $110 Revenue: $6.81 billion Net income: negative $2 billion EPS: negative $0.23 Connectivity segment, Starlink: $3.95 billion Gross margin: 54% Capital expenditures, CapEx: $13.2 billion Starlink Remains the Foundation of the Entire Story In SpaceX’s long term growth narrative, the greatest excitement surrounds Starship, the development of space infrastructure, and artificial intelligence related projects. These are the initiatives that could potentially expand the company’s scale many times over in the future. However, the company’s current value cannot be based solely on long term projects. Investors need a stable business that is already generating revenue, funding development, and supporting the company’s investment pace. That role is currently played by Starlink. The satellite internet segment is one of SpaceX’s most proven and commercially advanced businesses. Rapid growth in the customer base, expanding coverage, and the development of services for consumers, enterprises, and public institutions could make Starlink the financial foundation of the entire group. Over the next several years, Starlink could effectively serve as a cash generating engine for SpaceX’s other projects. If the business continues to scale rapidly, the revenue and cash flows it generates could fund less profitable initiatives whose potential is enormous but whose path to full commercialization remains long. For this reason, investors will focus not only on Starlink’s revenue growth but also on customer acquisition, margin expansion, and the segment’s ability to generate cash. Strong growth at Starlink could demonstrate that SpaceX already has a real, scalable business capable of supporting its most ambitious projects. Weaker figures, by contrast, would increase concerns that the company’s valuation is still based primarily on future promises. Starship Remains the Greatest Opportunity and the Largest Source of Uncertainty Starship could fundamentally transform the scale of SpaceX’s operations. The success of the program could reduce the cost of launching payloads into orbit, increase mission frequency, and open the door to new commercial and strategic applications. A significant portion of the company’s long term valuation is built around Starship. The challenge is that the project’s potential is much easier to estimate than its timeline. Any delay could push back the point at which Starship reaches full operational capability and commercialization, while also increasing the amount of capital required to fund the program. For that reason, management’s commentary on the next stages of Starship’s development will likely be more important than the company’s second quarter financial results. Investors will be looking for updates on technical progress, planned tests, the pace at which operational capabilities are expanding, and the outlook for the rocket’s commercial use. If Elon Musk presents a specific and credible timeline, it could strengthen confidence in the company’s long term growth story. If communication remains vague or cautious, the market may begin pricing in a greater risk of delays. AI Could Be a Major Opportunity, but for Now It Requires Capital Artificial intelligence related projects are becoming one of the most important elements of SpaceX’s long term strategy. The combination of satellite infrastructure, vast data resources, advanced computing systems, and collaboration with Elon Musk’s other companies could eventually create new sources of revenue. At the current stage, however, AI remains primarily an area of investment. Developing the necessary infrastructure requires enormous spending on data centers, computing hardware, and energy. Before these projects begin generating meaningful revenue, they may increase costs and weigh on cash flows for an extended period. This creates a clear tension within SpaceX’s investment story. On the one hand, AI could significantly expand the company’s long term potential. On the other hand, it requires funding that may limit free cash flow for many quarters to come. This is precisely why investors will expect specific information regarding the scale of investment, the development timeline, and potential monetization. Simply stating that SpaceX intends to participate in the AI race will not be enough. The market will want to know how much capital is required and when the first measurable benefits could emerge. Record CapEx Will Test Investor Patience According to Wall Street expectations, SpaceX’s capital expenditures could reach approximately $13.2 billion in the second quarter. For the full year 2026, CapEx is expected to approach $46 billion, before rising to nearly $87 billion in 2027. Such rapid growth in spending demonstrates the scale of the company’s ambitions. SpaceX is investing simultaneously in Starlink’s expansion, the Starship program, technological infrastructure, and artificial intelligence related projects. Each of these areas could eventually become a major business, but all of them require substantial capital. The market will therefore have to assess whether these high expenditures represent an investment in future competitive advantages or whether they are beginning to create excessive financial pressure. For mature technology companies, high CapEx can be accepted if rising expenditures quickly translate into higher revenue. SpaceX, however, is in a different position. A significant portion of its investments is directed toward projects whose full monetization may not occur for several years. Consensus estimates also point to negative free cash flow of approximately $1.9 billion in the second quarter. Negative FCF alone does not necessarily represent a negative signal. For a company developing projects that are so capital intensive, the more important issue will be whether investors receive a credible roadmap connecting current spending with future revenue. Financing Remains an Important Part of the Story SpaceX raised nearly $86 billion through its IPO and, just a few weeks later, increased its financing by approximately $25 billion in debt. The scale of the capital raised shows that investors are willing to fund the company’s ambitious plans. At the same time, it raises questions about the pace of future capital requirements. If capital expenditures increase in line with current forecasts, the market may begin to analyze not only the company’s current results but also the timing of its next capital raise and the potential valuation of future share offerings. The first earnings report could therefore provide information not only about the outlook for the second half of 2026. Management’s commentary may also help investors assess how long the company’s current financing will remain sufficient and whether SpaceX will require additional large scale sources of capital. The Lock Up Expiration Could Increase Volatility Regardless of the Results Several days after the earnings report is released, the gradual unlocking of additional shares subject to the lock up period will begin. This does not mean that all of these shares will immediately enter the market, but it increases the potential supply of shares and could raise short term volatility. This is important because the stock’s reaction to the results may be shaped not only by financial data and Elon Musk’s commentary. Even a very strong earnings report could be partially overshadowed by concerns about the increasing number of shares available for trading. On the other hand, the gradual nature of the unlock means that the market will have time to absorb the additional supply. It is also worth remembering that the ability to sell does not create an obligation to sell. Some employees and early investors may choose to take profits or diversify their portfolios, while others may retain their positions. As a result, the impact of the share unlock on the stock price will depend on the actual scale of selling and the current level of demand for the shares. Elon Musk May Matter More Than the Numbers Themselves SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report will also be the company’s first major test of communication with the public market. Investors know Elon Musk as a leader capable of building highly ambitious visions and attracting capital to projects that extend beyond the traditional boundaries of technology. This time, however, vision alone may not be enough. Following the sharp rise and subsequent selloff in the stock, shareholders will expect more concrete information. Key areas will include the development of Starlink, the Starship timeline, the scale of AI investment, the availability of semiconductor chips, and the outlook for future revenue. Musk’s commentary could have a greater impact on the share price than a small earnings beat or a modest disappointment relative to consensus expectations. The market will primarily assess management’s level of confidence and the credibility of the growth path presented. Three Possible Scenarios Positive Scenario The positive scenario assumes strong growth at Starlink, specific updates on the continued development of Starship, and a convincing strategy for monetizing artificial intelligence related projects. If management demonstrates that high CapEx is a response to growing demand and is contributing to the creation of new revenue streams, the market may view the recent correction as an opportunity to revalue the company. Neutral Scenario The neutral scenario assumes results broadly in line with expectations, continued strong growth at Starlink, and a general reaffirmation of long term plans. Such a report could stabilize investor sentiment but might not be enough to trigger a significant rebound in the share price. At the current valuation, investors may expect more specific information regarding future growth. Negative Scenario The negative scenario includes weaker momentum at Starlink, delays in Starship’s development, further increases in CapEx, and the absence of a clear path toward monetizing AI projects. In this case, the market could conclude that even a share price of around $110 still reflects an overly ambitious growth scenario. The First Earnings Report Will Test the Credibility of the Entire Story SpaceX remains one of the most ambitious technology companies in the world. It possesses genuine competitive advantages, an established Starlink business, the enormous potential of Starship, and the opportunity to develop new sources of growth in AI. At the same time, a large portion of the company’s valuation is based on projects whose full scale and profitability remain distant. The first quarterly earnings report will therefore be more than a standard financial release. It will be the first test of whether the market is receiving enough evidence to continue valuing SpaceX as one of the most important growth companies of the future. The key questions are: Is Starlink still growing quickly enough? Can the segment generate the cash needed to fund SpaceX’s other projects? What does the Starship development timeline look like? How large will future AI investments be? When could AI related projects begin generating revenue? Is rising CapEx still justified? How long can SpaceX continue funding its expansion while generating negative free cash flow? Does the current valuation still reflect an overly ambitious growth scenario? How will the market react to the increase in the number of shares available for trading? Key Takeaways SpaceX is entering its first quarterly earnings report following a highly volatile period. The stock rose from its $135 IPO price to $200 before falling back to around $110. The current valuation suggests that the market has begun to assess more critically the pace at which ambitious projects can be translated into tangible financial results. Starlink remains the company’s most important foundation. Rapid growth in the segment could confirm that SpaceX already possesses a scalable business capable of funding less profitable but potentially more promising projects. Starship remains the company’s greatest long term opportunity but also one of its main sources of uncertainty. Commentary regarding the development timeline could have a greater impact than the second quarter financial results themselves. AI increases the company’s long term potential but also requires enormous investment. Consensus estimates point to approximately $46 billion in CapEx in 2026 and around $87 billion in 2027, alongside expected negative free cash flow in the upcoming quarter. High spending may be accepted if SpaceX demonstrates that it is leading to rising revenue, continued growth at Starlink, and the creation of new sources of expansion. However, if investment increases faster than the company’s real ability to monetize its projects, the market may once again question the valuation. SpaceX’s first earnings report will therefore not be merely an assessment of the most recent quarter. Above all, it will test whether the company can convince investors that a significant portion of its future value already rests on tangible foundations rather than on promises alone. Source: xStation5

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Commentary

August 3, 2026

Currency Talk – What’s Next for the Dollar After the Fed Meeting

Key takeaways The dollar has come bottom of the G10 currency rankings for the past week. The market does not believe that Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chairman, is a hawk. Oil prices are falling, which is also putting pressure on the US dollar. Higher GDP growth and inflation are fuelling expectations of interest rate rises in the eurozone. The yen is strengthening following the first coordinated intervention by the US and Japan in 15 years. In recent months, the market has repeatedly cast doubt on Donald Trump’s promises and announcements. This phenomenon has become so widespread that it has even been given its own name (TACO, i.e. Trump Always Chickens Out). In keeping with this motto, the US President backed down from a planned attack on Iran over the weekend, which, as he himself put it, was to be “the biggest since the Second World War”. However, what proved more significant for the currency was investors’ scepticism regarding statements made by another US official. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chairman, continued to emphasise his uncompromising stance on inflation, seeking to convince the markets of his supposed hawkishness. Whilst this was sufficient in June, by July investors were expecting much more. Chart 1: Exchange rates of selected currencies [vs. USD] (27 July – 3 August) Source: Bloomberg, 3 August 2026 The US dollar has therefore come under pressure, weakening against almost every currency we analyse on a regular basis. Currencies with a higher beta (e.g. the Swedish krona or the Polish zloty) performed particularly well, as did those whose economies could suffer most from a deepening energy crisis (e.g. the South African rand or the South Korean won). At the very top of the list was, of course, the Japanese yen, which was bolstered last Thursday by the first joint currency intervention by the United States and Japan since 2011. US dollar (USD) The dollar is being weighed down by both the fall in energy commodity prices (of which it is a net exporter) and a dovish revision to market expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate path. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided last week to hold rates steady. The vote was 9 to 3. Only three policymakers voted in favour of a rate rise, and Warsh was not among them (the others were Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan). During the conference itself, the Fed Chair stuck to his decision not to provide forward guidance. Although he spoke for nearly 45 minutes, few of the words that came out of his mouth were of any great significance from a market perspective. He avoided answering both questions regarding the justification for the pause and those concerning the current economic situation. He mainly emphasised that the energy shock is hampering the committee’s work, and that the rise in CAPEX among hyperscalers should translate into future economic growth. This is largely consistent with his past comments on AI, when he argued that the productivity surge driven by artificial intelligence would, over time, have a disinflationary effect. The question is being raised once again as to whether Kevin Warsh is a dove in hawk’s clothing. The market seems increasingly sceptical that hawkish statements will be followed by concrete action, leading to a pullback in bets on interest rate rises. It currently assigns a probability of just over 60 per cent to a rate rise in September. Prior to the meeting, this was fully priced in. Chart 2: Market pricing of interest rate rises ahead of the FOMC decision (2026–2027) Source: XTB Research, 29 July 2026 Chart 3: Market pricing of interest rate rises following the FOMC decision (2026–2027) Source: XTB Research, 3 August 2026 It is worth recalling that almost exactly a year ago, he openly sided with the president, stating on FOX News that Donald Trump’s frustration with Powell’s conduct of monetary policy was entirely justified, and criticising the institution for being too slow to cut interest rates and for placing too much emphasis on historical economic data. Euro (EUR) In the eurozone, attention last week was focused not on monetary policy but on macroeconomic data. There are increasing signs that, following the pause in July, the time has come for a rate rise. The probability of a rate rise in September is estimated at almost 90 per cent. In recent days, both GDP growth (up 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter, compared with expectations of 0.2 per cent) and core inflation (2.5 per cent, consensus 2.4 per cent) have come in higher than expected. Both figures are consistent with further monetary tightening. G10 Chart 4: Exchange rates of selected currencies [vs. USD] Source: Bloomberg, 3 August 2026 Japanese yen (JPY) After reaching its highest level since 1986 (163.99), the USDJPY pair experienced a very sharp fall. This move was driven by the first coordinated intervention by the US and Japan since 2011. At that time, the yen had weakened following a massive earthquake. As emphasised by the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and the Japanese Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, both sides remain ready to take further measures to stabilise the exchange rate. According to data provided by the Bank of Japan, the scale of the Japanese intervention may have reached as much as 59 billion dollars, which would be an unprecedented move (in terms of the scale of a single-day intervention). Although we cannot estimate the scale of US operations using official data, there are strong indications that it amounted to between 5 and 10 billion dollars. This is at least what is suggested by a note left by Scott Bessent during a meeting in Maryland. Source: Reuters President Trump confirmed the US intervention at the weekend: “Japan has been very good to us, except, of course, for the attack on Pearl Harbour. (...) Their yen is weakening and they needed a bit of help. And we are always ready to help Japan.” Today, Minister Katayama published an official letter confirming the intervention.

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Metals

August 3, 2026

Eurozone PMIs: German Factory Revival Masks Underlying Stagnation 🇪🇺

The flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in slightly below expectations (51.9 vs 52 forecast; previous: 51.4; revised: 52), nevertheless remaining at a level pointing to sector expansion (50+). The biggest surprise in the report is the largest increase in output in nearly 4 years, although divergence among key economies remains deep. European industry finds its footing The flash reading for August confirms reviving momentum in European manufacturing, and the indicator holding above 50 for the seventh consecutive month highlights the sector's exceptional resilience to geopolitical turbulence stemming from the war in the Middle East. While demand, particularly domestic, remains far from dynamic and new orders are growing very slowly despite the presence of so-called “geopolitical frontloading” (i.e., mass order placement to reduce uncertainty), the clearing of backlogs helped boost factory output once again. Chart 1. Manufacturing PMI in Germany, France, and the Eurozone. Source: XTB Research, Macrobond data Is Germany pulling European manufacturing again? Among the Eurozone's four largest economies, Germany delivered the most solid performance, recording its highest PMI reading since 2022 (matching the previous peak from last March). Price pressures are currently the mildest since the outbreak in the Middle East, and production was once again supported by strong exports—partially tied to frontloading—though demand growth primarily occurred in Asia and the Americas. Conversely, the drop in intra-European demand weighed heavily on index readings in France and Spain, while Italy saw no major changes. Despite Germany's leading role in Europe's macroeconomic survey data, hard data continues to point to stagnation. Since the beginning of the year, industrial production growth was recorded only in April (+0.4% YoY), whereas the latest figures for May showed a decline in both monthly (-0.2% MoM) and annual (-1.2% YoY) terms. Despite production data being clearly lagged, the real economy has, nevertheless, a long way to go to break the downward trend and catch up with the surge in enthusiasm seen in survey data. However, fierce price competition from China and high commodity prices remain key obstacles. Chart 2. Industrial production and manufacturing sentiment in the Eurozone. Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg data Technical Analysis: EUR/USD (D1) EUR/USD opened today with a 0.15% gap up, but enthusiasm surrounding the return of Iran and the US to negotiations quickly evaporated. Lacking concrete details and awaiting the US ISM Manufacturing report (at 4:00 PM CET), the market pulled the euro-dollar pair back toward Friday’s close (1.1530). However, the exchange rate held above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA100; dark purple), indicating a residual impact from the marginally lower-than-expected European PMIs. Currently, the market is pricing in only one US interest rate hike before the end of 2026, and only a distinctly better-than-expected ISM reading with a strong price/inflation component could expose EUR/USD to another test of the EMA100. Source: xStation5

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Wheat Falls to 3-Week Low

Wheat prices fell to around $6.40 per bushel, the lowest in three weeks, after Russia announced measures to strengthen the security of shipping in the Azov-Black Sea basin and develop alternative cargo routes. The move follows an escalation in maritime attacks between Russia and Ukraine, which have disrupted grain exports from two of the world's leading suppliers. Russia's transport ministry said it had formed a task force to reroute cargo and enhance navigational safety, while port operators pledged to handle additional shipments where possible. Despite these efforts, industry groups in both countries warned that continued attacks on ports, export terminals and commercial vessels could severely disrupt Black Sea grain exports during the peak harvest season, threatening global food supplies. Meanwhile, hopes for easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also weighed on grain prices by improving the outlook for fertilizer and energy supplies.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Cocoa Rises to Over 2-Week High

Cocoa prices climbed above $5,700 per tonne, their highest level since July 15, after Ghana projected a sharp decline in cocoa production for the 2026/27 season. Market regulator COCOBOD expects output to fall by at least 16%, citing unfavorable weather, the cocoa tree's natural alternating yield cycle, disease, ageing plantations and illegal gold mining. Supply concerns were reinforced by expectations of a more than 10% decline in Ivory Coast's production next season. While crop prospects remain generally favorable, farmers said more sunshine and timely fertilizer and pesticide applications are needed, warning that excessive rainfall later in the season could increase disease risks and further tighten global cocoa supplies.

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Commentary

August 3, 2026

Chart of the Day – Yen Falls From 40-Year Highs – What’s Next?

After reaching its highest level since 1986 (163.99), the USDJPY pair recorded a very dynamic decline. The movement was driven by the first coordinated intervention by the US and Japan since 2011. At that time, the yen was weakened following a massive earthquake. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan's Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama emphasised that both sides are prepared to take further action to stabilise the exchange rate. Historic intervention According to data provided by the Bank of Japan, the scale of the Japanese intervention may have reached as much as 59 billion dollars, which would be unprecedented given the scale of a one-day intervention. Although we cannot estimate the scale of the US action using official data, many indications suggest it reached 5-10 billion dollars. This is suggested, at least, by a note left by Scott Bessent during a meeting in Maryland. Source: Reuters The US intervention was confirmed over the weekend by President Trump: "Japan has been very good to us, except, of course, for the attack on Pearl Harbor. (...) They have a weakening yen and they needed a little help. And we are always ready to help Japan." Today, an official letter confirming the intervention was published by Minister Katayama. Is the Mar-a-Lago accord returning? Due to US cooperation in the recent intervention aimed at strengthening the yen, the issue of broader White House policy is returning to the fore. A return to actions aimed at weakening the US currency, which would support domestic exports, seems possible. At the beginning of 2025, such actions were termed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," a modern attempt to repeat the premises of the 1985 Plaza Accord. What is behind the earlier weakening of the yen? Key to this was the return of the carry trade, i.e., trading on interest rate differentials. How does this work? This strategy is based on borrowing a currency (in this case, the yen) at near-zero interest rates and immediately exchanging it for another (e.g., the dollar) to make investments in a market offering higher returns. Although the Bank of Japan has moved away from its ultra-loose monetary policy and implemented five interest rate hikes in recent months, bringing the reference interest rate to its highest level in over 20 years (1%), it still remains far below levels seen in the United States (3.75%) and many other developed economies, such as Australia (4.35%), Norway (4.25%), the UK (3.75%), or the eurozone (2.4% – deposit rate). BoJ holds rates In line with market expectations, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged overnight from Thursday to Friday. The main interest rate remains at 1%. The decision was made by a vote of 8 to 1. One of the hawks, Hajime Takata, voted in favour of a hike. Due to government initiatives aimed at supporting households regarding energy prices, the BoJ revised down its inflation forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, lowering it from 2.8% to 2.5%. At the same time, the inflation forecast for 2027 was raised from 2.3% to 2.4%. The meeting was treated as a pause to assess the impact of recent tightening. Naoki Tamura, a board member, suggested the possibility of raising rates at intervals of a few months by 25 basis points until reaching a level of approx. 2%. This is largely consistent with market valuations. The market-implied probability of a hike in September can be compared to a coin toss. An upward move before the end of the year is fully priced in. It is possible that the BoJ will raise rates twice in the mentioned period. What is the inflation situation? The quarterly report published in July showed that households estimate prices will grow at a rate of 10.8% over the next five years. The survey has never shown such high values (though it should be noted that it has only been conducted for 20 years). Although this figure is inflated by the survey methodology – an average is presented, which is contaminated by irrationally high expectations of part of the society – the anxiety regarding rising price pressure cannot be underestimated. The median (5%) is also growing very dynamically, which may be a more reliable indicator in this regard. Inflation grew in the last four months by 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively on a monthly basis – when annualised, this data suggests price growth in the region of 4-5%. After excluding the most volatile energy and food prices, the situation looks better, but much still points to a significant rise in the indicator from current levels (1.6%). Significant factors may include, among others, relatively dynamic wage growth (3.2% in May). Dependence on energy imports A weaker yen is not just a matter of carry trade. The outbreak of war in the Middle East plays a significantly important role, which brought oil and LNG prices to their highest levels since 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine. Nearly 90% of Japan's energy demand comes from imports, and under normal conditions, its main suppliers are Middle Eastern countries. Figure 1: Japan's Energy Sector Trade Balance (1998 - 2026) Source: IEA, 03.08.2026 The prolonged lack of de-escalation in the conflict between the United States and Iran may translate not only into a significant increase in inflationary pressure but also into problems maintaining the continuity of key energy resource supplies. Figure 2: Structure of Japan's Crude Oil Imports (2024) Source: OEC, 03.08.2026 Technical analysis Figure 3: USDJPY [D1] (20.01.2026 - 03.08.2026) Source: xStation, 03.08.2026 After reaching a local peak near the 164 level, the market experienced a sharp collapse. The price broke through key structural supports with momentum and is currently in the 157 region. It is worth noting, however, that a long lower wick formed on one of the recent candles – this signifies the first serious attempt at defence and a reaction from demand. The price drastically broke down through the band of moving averages (EMA 50, EMA 100, and EMA 200). For a long time, these averages (blue, red, and yellow lines) served as dynamic supports in the uptrend. Currently, this setup has been negated. The closest of them (blue, around 159.3) now constitutes the first very important dynamic resistance in the case of a possible rebound. The long lower wick of the bearish candle tested the 78.6 Fibo retracement. Currently, the price has rebounded and is fighting to hold above the 61.8 retracement. The RSI indicator is at the 21.3 level. This is an extreme oversold zone (below 30). Although in strong downtrends, the RSI can stay in this zone for a long time, such a low value is a strong warning signal of a possible upward correction or at least a transition into consolidation to "cool down" the indicator. MACD confirms a strong downtrend. The lines have crossed downwards and are moving away from the zero level, and the histogram is growing in the negative zone. There are no divergences here at this moment.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Aluminum Rises to Near 6-Week High

Aluminum futures in the UK rose above $3,210 per tonne, the highest level in nearly six weeks, amid ongoing supply constraints and slower production. Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters. These pressures were compounded by China’s 45 million-ton production cap, which is expected to become more restrictive this year. Geopolitical tensions have also prompted consumers to draw down exchange inventories, with LME stocks falling to their lowest level this century. In addition, Alcoa Corp. cut its production forecast following operational issues at an Australian refinery. However, some of these supply concerns could be offset by anticipated capacity restarts and expansion progress among producers, including the restart of the Slovalco smelter in Slovakia in Q4 of 2026 and Metals’ Missouri smelter by year-end. Emirates Global Aluminium also continued restoring production at its Al Taweelah facility.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Trade of The Day – FRA40

Facts: RSI[14] reached 62.2 The price is approaching the previous peak (around 8630) The previous peak stalled at the FIBO upswing around 161.8 Recommendation: Short position (Sell) on FRA40 at market price Target price (Take Profit, TP): 8315 Stop Loss (SL): 8800 FRA40 (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION: The upward momentum suggests conditions favorable for a downward correction and an attempt to complete a double-top pattern. The RSI indicator is particularly important, as it has reached a level above which the price has regularly undergone downward corrections over recent months. Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical chart analysis, in particular EMA moving averages and Fibonacci levels. The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels, EMA moving averages, and the historical size of corrections. The protective stop loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and with reference to a Fibonacci level.

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Japanese Yen: Joint intervention reshapes FX dynamics – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister examines recent joint US–Japan intervention to support the Japanese Yen. He notes confirmation that US authorities helped Japan and that further actions are possible, but constrained by IMF rules. Pfister argues the Yen is heavily undervalued, explores motives linked to US Treasuries and JGBs, and warns markets to brace for additional interventions. US–Japan action and yen valuation "This morning, official confirmation finally arrived that the US had lent Japan a hand with its interventions to strengthen the yen for the first time in many years, something that had been clear since Friday at the latest. Officials have emphasised that they are ready to carry out further interventions, although Thursday's intervention alone is estimated to have been the largest single-day intervention to date." "The yen has been significantly undervalued for many years. According to OECD purchasing power parity, it is currently more than 60% undervalued against the US dollar. By way of comparison, the euro is undervalued by about 29%." "I suspect that the US was more concerned that US Treasuries might be sold off. Japan could have sold them to prop up the yen with the US dollars received, which would tie in with reports that Japan might make greater use of the Fed’s repo facility (i.e. deposit USTs there as collateral in exchange for cash)." "However, if Japan intervenes again in the coming days, the Ministry of Finance will have effectively used up all its options until November in order to retain that status." "Until then, market participants should brace themselves for possible interventions later in today's trading session."

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Banks

August 3, 2026

British Pound: Rally may stall near 1.3555 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights GBP/USD’s volatile session, with a spike from 1.3401 to 1.3481 and scope for further gains toward 1.3520, though overbought conditions may cap upside. For the next 1–3 weeks, he sees strong momentum but questions whether the pair can break and hold above 1.3555, with support around 1.3385. Upside momentum tempered by overbought "24-HOUR VIEW: GBP traded in a relatively volatile manner last Friday, dropping to a low of 1.3401 before rising sharply to close at 1.3481 (+0.13%). While the sharp rise has scope to extend, overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 1.3520. The major resistance at 1.3555 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 1.3450; a breach of 1.3425 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: GBP broke above the significant resistance at 1.3400 last week and soared to 1.3494. While strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the next significant resistance at 1.3555. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3385"

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Markets

August 3, 2026

The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead: Risk is back, as we wait for payrolls Stocks are in a buoyant mood as we start August. Futures are in positive territory on Monday, with European indices expected to open higher today, and US futures expected to carry on last week’s rally. The Nasdaq is currently expected to open higher by more than 0.8%. Last week, US stocks made a stunning comeback from Thursday onwards and the gains are expected to continue this week. The question now is, can US indices outperform their European counterparts this week, after falling behind for the past month? Oil price boost for markets The 5% drop in the oil price is also helping to boost sentiment. Overnight, President Trump said that negotiations to find a peace deal with Iran could start today, which has led Brent crude to fall back towards $83 per barrel. This will ease inflation fears and could also act as a dampener on bond yields, which rose sharply last week, especially at the long end, where 30-year US Treasury yields jumped to their highest level for 19 years. Economic data and earnings to spur price action This is another huge week for financial markets. Firstly, there is a large amount of fresh economic data, including the latest labour market data from the US. 20% of the S&P 500 report earnings this week, including Palantir and SanDisk. SpaceX will also release its first earnings report on Tuesday. The market wants to know if the tech selloff is over, what the yen will do next after unprecedented multilateral intervention to prop up the currency, and US Treasury yields are also in focus. If anyone thought things would be quiet for markets this August, they are only heating up. 3 main themes dominate markets Last week three main narratives dominated price action as we rounded off July trading. The first was a week of two halves for the tech trade. The first half of the week saw severe tech deleveraging, which included a 17% sell off for South Korea’s Kospi index. Then came tech earnings, and a powerful rally on Thursday that drove Microsoft higher by 16%, and gave hope that the severe drawdown in the AI favourites, that started on 22nd June, could be at an end. Nasdaq 100 Source: XTB Microsoft winning the AI race The rally in Microsoft is symbolic for a few reasons. Last week’s Q2 results showed that Copilot could be a big winner in enterprise AI. It increased the number of subscriptions to 30mn and is part of the Microsoft 365 suite of products. Thus, it is already well integrated into products that hundreds of millions of people use every day, and the growth trajectory is huge for Microsoft, which has now proven that it can monetize its AI investments. Can chip stocks make a comeback? Value in the tech space is shifting to some of the big Magnificent 7 names, after a bruising start to the year. However, there could also be a recovery in the chip sector. Several of the Magnificent 7 including Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are all increasing their AI capex plans for this year, which should give the AI trade another late summer burst of energy. Did the AI trade reach a bottom? Due to both of these factors, we could have seen the short-term bottom in the tech sell off as we march further into Q3. The question now, is there a strong rally ahead of us when August and September are traditionally the worst months for stock market returns? USD/JPY in focus The second narrative that dominated the market last week was the intervention in the yen. USD/JPY fell more than 4% last week, At the start of the week, the yen is higher by another 0.5% vs the USD and is trading at 156.60. The intervention came after a surprise hold from the Bank of Japan sent the yen sharply lower. The confirmed intervention cost the Japanese authorities $50bn, with another $10bn of support coming from the US and potentially South Korea. This time the intervention worked, but the question is, for how long? FX intervention and manually propping up a currency does not have a strong track record of working in the long term, and this rate of FX intervention is unstainable over longer time periods. Thus, will the market test the resolve of the authorities? Although the yen is off to a strong start on Monday, if it does drop this week then it will put dramatic pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in the coming months to try and naturally boost yen strength. USD/JPY Source: XTB The fallout from the Fed The third narrative from last week was Treasury yields. Long end yields surged, the US Treasury yield curve steepened sharply, the 2s-10s yield curve is 48bps, while the 2s-30s yield curve is at 98bps, up 18bps last week, which is a huge move in one week. The 10-year yield closed the week at 4.69%, while the 30-year yield rose to its highest level since 2007 and closed the week at 5.23%. The impact on the housing market could be severe and is worth watching in the coming months. Yields are rising in the US even though the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at last week’s meeting. When rates are on pause, it is natural for the yield curve to steepen, after all, inflation is above the target rate. However, it is the unrelenting rise in yields that could unnerve investors. Interetsingly, stress in the long end of the US yield curve did not impact the global equity market rally at the end of last week. However, if yields do keep surging, then we could see pressure in the equity space. While the Fed’s message was blamed for causing the volatility in the US Treasury curve, we think that this is unfair. Fed chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that the Fed would return US inflation back to the target rate, and there are some who think that he is nearly as hawkish as the three dissenting members of the FOMC who voted to hike rates last week. Interetsingly, Treasury yields are rising at the same time as the Fed is shifting to a potentially hawkish stance when there are signs that inflation is moderating and the labour market is weakening. PCE inflation was weaker than expected for Q2, and the labour market was much weaker than expected in June, we need to see if the pattern reoccurs for July. However, yields are also rising because there is huge supply of debt. It is not just governments who are funding their activities with debt, the AI infrastructure build out is also increasingly funded by debt. When supply outstrips demand, yields have to rise to attract investors. Thus, we may not see bond yields moderate any time soon. The key questions that investors are asking as we start a new week, where will the oil price go next? Have tech stocks, specifically chip stocks, bottomed out, and will a sell off in long end Treasury yields hurt equities? Below, we look at the two main events to watch in the week ahead: 1, Non Farm Payrolls While the focus on Monday is on an improving geopolitical backdrop and a falling oil price, the focus as we move through the week will be the US Non Fram Payrolls report, which will be another test of the resilience of the US labour market. This is a pivotal release for financial markets, and there are 4 things in this report that are worth watching. These include the payrolls number, the unemployment rate, wage growth and the labour force participation rate. This data will help to define the future of Fed policy, and could be a major market-moving event, especially since the Fed is no longer offering forward guidance. The Fed is particularly worried about demand side inflation fears and a wage-price spiral, so the wage data is worth watching closely. Economists currently expect a 91k increase in payrolls and for the unemployment rate to tick up a notch to 4.3%. If we get a major surprise in the data then USD/JPY is worth watching closely to see if an upside surprise weighs on the yen . 2, Earnings This is a massive week for earnings reports on both sides of the Atlantic. Tech earnings will be watched closely after strong reports for Microsoft and Amazon helped to spur a major rally. Apple did not impress with last week’s report, and its stock price slumped more than 7% on Friday, although it did show signs of stabilization overnight. Palantir, SpaceX and SanDisk are the highlights in the US earnings calendar for this week. SpaceX’s share price dropped sharply last week and fell 3% on Friday. It closed the week at a record low below $110. The question now is, can the earnings report, especially forecasts of future revenue, help the stock price to recover? SpaceX Source: XTB

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Oil: Red sea disruptions reshape global flows – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe how Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab security risks are forcing Oil cargoes onto longer, more complex routes. They highlight sharply reduced Red Sea flows, costly diversions via the Suez Canal, SUMED pipeline and Cape of Good Hope, and stress that the main challenge for Oil now lies in safe delivery rather than production. Red Sea risks lengthen oil routes "Like Odysseus navigating a succession of hazards on his voyage home, oil cargoes leaving the Red Sea are now being forced through an increasingly complex and dangerous journey. What was once a relatively direct route to Asia (pre-war) now involves detours, transhipments and multiple chokepoints, with each stage introducing new risks. The result is that a barrel of oil must travel farther and pass through more obstacles before reaching its destination." "The Bab al-Mandab has now emerged as another inevitable obstacle in this modern voyage. Based on the three confirmed incidents in the Red Sea last week and the composition of tankers that crossed successfully, the Houthis appear to be targeting Saudi-flagged vessels, while Chinese-flagged tankers carrying Saudi crude have continued to transit Bab al-Mandab. Total Red Sea oil flows have dropped by 4 mb/d since July 1, driven by a significant 3.7 mb/d decline in Bab al-Mandab traffic." "As an alternative to navigating through the Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi crude is first moved through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, where it is loaded onto a VLCC. As fully laden VLCCs cannot transit the Suez Canal, the cargo is transferred into Egypt's SUMED pipeline, reloaded in the Mediterranean, and then shipped through Gibraltar and around the Cape of Good Hope. To avoid the missile and drone threat near the Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of Aden, vessels continue across the Indian Ocean and through the Strait of Malacca before reaching their destination." "Lastly, in Kazakhstan, disruptions to CPC exports, elevated refinery outages in Russia, and recurring attacks on shipping infrastructure demonstrate that the market remains exposed to further setbacks. Just as Odysseus faced a new challenge whenever one obstacle appeared behind him, the oil market has moved from one disruption to another without returning to normality. The central theme is clear: the greatest challenge is no longer producing the oil but safely delivering it through an increasingly hazardous journey."

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Banks

August 3, 2026

US Dollar Index: Fed hike expectations support DXY – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that despite sizeable joint FX intervention in USD/JPY and lower Oil prices, the US Dollar (USD) is not broadly weaker as markets still price a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike in September. He highlights upcoming US jobs data and ISM manufacturing as key inputs, and sees the US Dollar Index (DXY) finding support near 99.35/40 and potentially breaking back above 100 this week. DXY holds as markets eye Fed "In theory, the dollar should be broadly weaker today after the US and Japanese authorities confirmed joint FX intervention and the Japanese probably sold $70-80bn over the last three days. Lower oil prices should also be weighing on the dollar on reports from US President Donald Trump that negotiation, rather than military firepower, is Washington's preferred method of engaging with Iran." "The fact that the dollar is not broadly weaker probably owes to the unresolved issue of whether the Federal Reserve will hike in September. " "For today, the focus should be on a reasonably strong July ISM manufacturing release." "It seems the only way the Fed can avoid hiking in September is if the US data is poor enough. A major input to that decision comes this week in the form of US jobs data, including JOLTS job openings, ADP, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report. On NFP, consensus is around +75-80k and probably not quite weak enough to rule out a Fed hike. In other words, the case for a sustained sell-off in the dollar has yet to be made." "The DXY dollar index will be bounced around by the USD/JPY intervention story, but with decreasing marginal impact from this news story, we suspect DXY could find support near 99.35/40 and can break back above 100 this week."

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Equities: Sector rotations shape summer performance – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that equity indices have been broadly unchanged over the summer, but sector rotations have been significant. Higher Oil prices supported energy stocks, while within technology, software has outperformed and semiconductors have lagged. Regional equity performance has mirrored these dynamics, with Emerging Markets weaker and Norway, Europe and Sweden showing relative strength. Rotations drive sector and regional moves "Equity indices have been broadly unchanged over the summer, but beneath the surface the rotations have been substantial. Higher oil prices naturally supported energy stocks, but equally important has been another significant rotation within the technology sector." "Unlike earlier this year, software has materially outperformed while semiconductors have lagged. This has not reflected disappointing earnings. Instead, investor attention has again centred around the uncertainty surrounding the longer-term AI capital expenditure cycle." "Regional equity performance has mirrored these sector dynamics. Emerging Markets have underperformed while Norway has benefited from higher energy prices." "Interestingly, both Europe and Sweden have delivered relative outperformance throughout the geopolitical escalation, a notable contrast to previous episodes earlier this year." "This morning sentiment is improving once again as lower oil prices support risk appetite. South Korea is the notable exception with equities down around 6%, while both US and European futures indicate another opening close to fresh all-time highs."

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Japanese Yen: Joint intervention signals potential turning point – MUFG

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened sharply, with USD/JPY dropping from around 164 after suspected intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and confirmed joint action with the US Treasury. He notes that past joint JPY interventions often coincide with turning points in USD/JPY, but stresses that fundamentals must shift for a durable move lower. Historic joint action in Yen markets "The Japanese Yen strengthened further below the 158 level heading into the weekend, with the media including the FT and Bloomberg reporting that the US Treasury intervened to strengthen the Japanese Yen on Friday by selling Euros to buy Yen." "In Asia morning time, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama released a statement confirming that both Japan and the US Treasury intervened on Friday, and that they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention if necessary in close coordination with the US." "Historical episodes of joint JPY intervention show that these events have typically taken place around key turning points in USD/JPY, but this is not always the case and tends to take some time before the broader trend changes." "For instance, in June 1998, USD/JPY fell sharply from 146 to 136 within a few days, helped by joint FX intervention, but it took at least two more months after that and shifts in the underlying dynamics of the Asian Financial Crisis before USD/JPY’s longer-term trend broke." "Overall, while we think that the joint intervention is certainly historic and significant, and could certainly play an important role in the short-term in clearing out Yen shorts, the fundamentals likely still need to change for a more durable move lower in USD/JPY."

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Banking

August 3, 2026

Oil: Prices slide on halted strikes – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s FX Research team reports that Brent Oil opened over 7% lower under USD84 into the Asian session after President Trump said the US would hold off on new strikes against Iran. Despite OPEC+ approving a modest output increase for September, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping Persian Gulf export disruptions and inflation concerns in focus. Trump decision hits Brent sharply "The dominant story heading into the Asian open is that Brent oil prices have opened lower by over 7% to under USD84. This followed reports over the weekend that President Donald Trump said the US would hold off on new strikes against Iran. Iran and other Gulf nations indicated they are working toward a deal." "President Trump posted on social media that he had agreed to cancel the attack “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL”, adding “Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE”. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had reportedly urged Trump to refrain from further military action." "The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, continuing to disrupt Persian Gulf oil exports and stoking inflation concerns across Asia and Africa." "On the energy front, OPEC+ approved a further increase of 188k barrels a day to collective output targets for September on Sunday, completing the theoretical unwinding of the 1.65mn barrels a day in voluntary cuts made in April 2023."

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Banks

August 3, 2026

Euro: Rebound eyes key resistance band against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes EUR/USD rebounded sharply after a dip to 1.1453, with scope to extend gains toward 1.1565 intraday, provided it holds above 1.1495. On a 1–3 week view, he sees potential for a test of 1.1565 and possibly 1.1600, while a break below 1.1455 would undermine the bullish scenario. Upside bias toward 1.1565–1.1600 "24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, USD fell to a low of 1.1453 and then rebounded sharply to close unchanged at 1.1527. EUR could continue to rebound today but note that 1.1565 is expected to provide significant resistance. To keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1495, with minor support at 1.1510." "1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After dropping to a low of 1.1353 early last week, EUR soared and ended the week 1.41% higher at 1.1527. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600. On the downside, a breach of 1.1455 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR is unlikely to break above 1.1565."

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Markets

August 3, 2026

XAU/USD holds above $4,050 as easing inflation fears curb Fed hike bets; USD bounce caps gains

Gold kicks off the new week on a positive note, though it lacks any follow-through buying. Falling oil prices ease inflation fears and temper Fed hike bets, supporting the commodity. A modest USD bounce from its lowest level since June 17 caps gains for the XAU/USD pair. Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest weekly bullish gap opening and remains below the $4,100 mark through the Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) stages a modest recovery from its lowest level since June 17 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity. The upside for the USD, however, seems limited amid renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, which, in turn, helps the non-yielding bullion to preserve gains above the $4,050 level. US President Donald Trump called off planned attacks on Iran over the weekend, claiming that Mideast allies have reached the parameters of a deal on Tehran's nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump further told reporters that the US and Iran are set to resume negotiations Monday afternoon, fueling optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old war. Adding to this, the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production in September triggered a steep decline in crude oil prices. This eases inflation fears and tempers bets for a more aggressive Fed policy tightening, which should keep a lid on any meaningful USD appreciation and support the Gold price. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place fresh bearish bets around the USD and opt to wait for further developments around the Middle East crisis. Hence, the focus remains glued to incoming geopolitical headlines, which might continue to infuse volatility in financial markets and drive the USD demand. Apart from this, traders will take cues from important US macro data, scheduled at the start of a new month, for some meaningful impetus. A busy week kicks off with the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Monday. The market attention, meanwhile, stays on the crucial US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis: Gold remains confined in a familiar range as bulls seem hesitant below $4,100 From a technical perspective, nothing seems to have changed much as the XAU/USD pair remains confined in a familiar range below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Against the backdrop of the recent downfall, this might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, close, 9) stays in positive territory with a reading near 11.6, hinting at tentative upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.1 remains neutral and suggests only limited directional conviction. Hence, any further move up might struggle to find acceptance above $4,100. The said handle is followed by the top boundary of the trading range, just ahead of the $4,200 mark, which, if cleared decisively, could lift Gold to the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33. Bulls would need to reclaim a technically significant barrier to alleviate the prevailing bearish tone and reopen the path toward higher highs. On the downside, immediate support is inferred from recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 area, where buyers previously emerged. A convincing break below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to further declines.

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Softs

August 3, 2026

Palm Oil Edges Up on Stronger Exports, India Demand Hopes

Malaysian palm oil futures inched higher to trade around MYR 4,650 per tonne, recovering from recent weakness amid a softer ringgit and firmer rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. Sentiment was further lifted by stronger export prospects, with cargo surveyors estimating Malaysian palm oil shipments in July rose between 12.1% and 19.5% from the same period in June. Prices also drew support from higher biodiesel blending mandates in Indonesia and Malaysia, weather-related risks to Malaysia's 2027 output, and expectations of stronger imports by the world's largest importer, India, between July and October ahead of the festive season. In China, another key buyer, the central bank pledged to maintain ample liquidity after last week's Politburo meeting, raising hopes for firmer demand. However, gains remained limited as Dalian palm olein softened and crude oil prices eased after U.S. President Trump refrained from launching a fresh attack on Iran.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

XAG/USD rises above $58.00 on renewed US-Iran peace talks

Silver climbs following Trump's announcement that peace talks with Iran will resume on Monday. Trump noted Middle Eastern allies urged diplomatic resolution over military strikes, while demanding the Strait of Hormuz reopen. Markets currently price in a 68% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September. Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $58.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Silver prices climb as market sentiment shifted following statements from US President Donald Trump, who announced that peace talks with Iran are set to resume on Monday. The prospect of diplomacy helped send oil prices lower, offering relief to investors concerned about rising inflation and the broader outlook for interest rates. President Trump noted that key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, had urged him to halt planned military strikes in favor of a diplomatic solution, while he reiterated his call for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are turning their attention to a busy week of US labor market data, anchored by Friday's closely watched monthly jobs report. This economic focus comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady. However, that decision was not unanimous; three Fed officials dissented, cautioning that delaying action could force the central bank into more aggressive policy tightening down the road. In response to these mixed signals, financial markets are currently pricing in roughly a 68% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's upcoming September meeting. According to analysts at Commerzbank, the outlook for the other bullion, gold, remains constrained by the policy path in the US. They argue that “the persistent expectation of Fed interest rate rises should counteract any rise in the gold price,” with ongoing tightening expectations limiting the scope for a sustained move higher even after the recent post-meeting spike.

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Commentary

August 3, 2026

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC dips, ETH consolidates, XRP stalls

Bitcoin is trading around $63,200 on Monday after correcting over 2.8% in the previous week. Ethereum consolidates between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, signaling indecision among traders. XRP trades near $1.07 after falling 2.35% last week, with weakening momentum. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) steadied on Monday after falling over 2.8%, 3.55% and 2.35%, respectively, the previous week. BTC trades below the key resistance level, ETH consolidates between the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Meanwhile, XRP steadies above the key support zone, with all three top cryptocurrencies near crucial technical levels; the next breakout or breakdown could determine their near-term direction. Bitcoin slips below key support zone Bitcoin price trades at $63,265 on Monday, keeping a bearish near-term tone as price holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $64,676, $67,205 and $73,001 respectively. The dense overhead EMA stack suggests rallies remain corrective. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 leans slightly bearish, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays below zero with a negative reading, hinting at persistent downside pressure. On the topside, initial resistance appears at the nearby horizontal level around $64,004, followed by the 50-day EMA at $64,676, which caps the first meaningful recovery attempts. Higher up, the 100-day EMA at $67,205 and the 200-day EMA at $73,001 define a broader supply zone before the major horizontal barrier near $84,410, leaving immediate downside levels undefined and suggesting any fresh selling would explore new support areas below the current price. Ethereum consolidates between 50-day and 100-day EMAs Ethereum price trades at $1,870 on Monday, with the pair capped below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1,929 and $2,153, respectively, which keeps the broader bias mildly bearish despite holding above the 50-day EMA at $1,851. The RSI sits near a neutral 51, hinting at consolidative momentum, while the MACD remains below zero with a negative reading, suggesting downside pressure is not yet fully exhausted. On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day EMA around $1,929, ahead of the psychological and structural barrier at $2,000, with the 200-day EMA near $2,153 acting as a deeper hurdle for any sustained recovery.  On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day EMA at $1,851, and a more distant structural floor emerges at the prior horizontal support level near $1,385.00. XRP’s momentum indicators show weakening signs XRP price trades at $1.076 on Monday, holding below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs at $1.121, $1.203, and $1.397, respectively, which keeps the broader tone bearish and rallies capped.  The RSI at 45 sits just under the midline. At the same time, the MACD is marginally negative, together hinting at subdued upside momentum and a market that remains vulnerable to further softening while these overhead EMAs are not reclaimed. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA near $1.121, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.203 and the horizontal barrier at $1.300, before a stronger structural ceiling at the 200-day EMA around $1.397 and the distant resistance line at $1.900. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the horizontal level at $1.000, where buyers would be expected to show interest; a daily close below this floor would reinforce the bearish bias and open the door to a deeper corrective phase.

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Forex Trading

August 3, 2026

United States Dollar Index weakens below 100.00 as Trump says new Iran talks would begin Monday

US Dollar Index softens to around 99.70 in Monday’s Asian session.  Trump said new Iran talks would begin Monday after he called off a planned attack on Iran. US NFP data will be in the spotlight on Friday.  The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.70 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY declines amid improved risk sentiment. Traders brace for the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, which will be released later on Monday. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he had called off an attack on Iran and that talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Trump suggested an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be close and added that he would also continue to pursue a path to end Iran’s nuclear program. Hopes of a breakthrough between Washington and Tehran could undermine a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar against its rivals in the near term.   All eyes will be on the US employment data on Friday. This report could offer some hints on the health of the labor market. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to increase by 91,000 in July, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to rise to 4.3% during the same period. In case of stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could help limit the DXY’s losses.  The Federal Reserve (Fed) held the interest rates unchanged at its July policy meeting last week. Markets have priced in nearly a 64.7% chance of a US rate hike in September, down from about 77% before the July Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Dollar seen under renewed pressure as Fed rate expectations fade According to analysts at Commerzbank, the Dollar is likely to come back under pressure once tensions with Iran subside, as they judge that the Fed is "unlikely to raise rates as markets have priced in." In their view, the easing of geopolitical risk would remove a key support for the currency, leaving it more vulnerable to disappointment on the US rate path.

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Energies

August 3, 2026

WTI Price Forecast: More pain likely if fails to hold $77

The oil price faces intense selling pressure as Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rally over 22% in July due to aggressive exchange of attacks between the US and Iran. Investors worry about the longevity of the US-Iran peace. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, holds onto early losses, trading 7.6% lower at around $78.60 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The oil price faces selling pressure as United States (US) President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth Social, that planned attacks on Iran have been suspended as the nation has agreed to surrender its nuclear ambitions and the total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply. “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat,” Trump wrote. The announcement from US President Trump has boosted the odds of a resumption of peace talks with Iran, a scenario that diminishes fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption. In July, the WTI Oil price gained over 22.5% due to excessive military aggression between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump called off the ceasefire. Meanwhile, financial markets still worry about whether the ceasefire between the US and Iran would sustain for longer. Analysts at IG Markets said, "The bigger focus is whether this week turns into a rinse and repeat of last ‌week — ⁠with hopes of a deal collapsing as Iran digs in its heels and continues to leverage its control over the Strait, potentially through an attack on a U.S. base or a tanker transiting the waterway," Reuters reports. WTI technical analysis The WTI US Oil trades lower at $78.70, extending a bearish near-term bias as price remains clearly below the 20-hour exponential moving average (EMA) at $81.18. The positioning under this short-term EMA suggests sellers retain control after the recent retreat from the mid-$80s, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.20 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent but not yet exhausted downside momentum. On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-period EMA around $81.18, which now acts as the first barrier to any recovery attempts and a key level that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure. Looking down, the July 28 low at $77.16 is the key support level; a break below that would expose the oil price to the July 13 low at $72.53.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Copper Gains on Tightening Supply

Copper futures climbed toward $6.5 per pound on Monday, reaching their highest level in two weeks as ongoing supply constraints continued to tighten market conditions. Analysts cited shortages of copper concentrate and scrap copper in top consumer China, driving treatment charges and market spreads higher. Traders also remained cautious over the prospect of new US tariffs on the metal, which has encouraged the diversion of copper shipments into the US. In addition, copper continued to draw support from its favorable long-term demand outlook, fueled by the global shift toward clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers. Meanwhile, private data showed China's manufacturing activity slowed to a four-month low in July as output and new orders expanded at a weaker pace, dampening the demand outlook. The Politburo also indicated last week that it would continue relying on existing policy measures instead of rolling out broad-based stimulus.

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Energies

August 3, 2026

Oil Falls as US-Iran Peace Talks Resume

Crude oil dropped more than 4% toward $80 per barrel on Monday after surging over 20% in July, as President Donald Trump announced that peace talks with Iran will resume today after he canceled a planned military strike against the Islamic Republic. Trump said key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to suspend the attacks and prioritize negotiations, while reiterating his call for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, oil prices climbed about 23% after renewed hostilities between the US and Iran shattered the interim peace agreement, with supply disruptions extending from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Meanwhile, major OPEC+ producers approved another modest increase in production quotas, completing the planned restoration of output cuts introduced in 2023 and leaving room to boost supplies further once the Middle East conflict comes to an end.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Gold Rises as US-Iran Peace Talks Eyed

Gold climbed above $4,050 an ounce on Monday, recovering losses from the previous session after President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran will resume today, sending oil prices lower and easing concerns over inflation and the interest rate outlook. Trump said key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to suspend planned strikes and pursue a diplomatic agreement instead, while reiterating his call for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also turned their focus to a packed week of US labor market data, highlighted by Friday’s closely watched monthly jobs report. Last week, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, although three officials dissented, warning that delaying action for too long could eventually require more aggressive policy tightening. Markets are currently pricing in about a 68% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September.

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Energies

August 3, 2026

European Gas Tumbles After Trump Cancels Attack on Iran

European natural gas prices declined more than 4% to around €56 per MWh on the first trading day of August after President Donald Trump called off a planned weekend attack on Iran, saying Tehran and other Middle Eastern nations had assured him they were working toward a deal. Trump said that negotiations between the parties are set to begin on Monday. The announcement provided some relief after days of escalating tensions that had driven energy prices sharply higher. European natural gas prices surged 36% in July as the conflict heightened concerns over LNG supplies from the Gulf and Europe's ability to replenish gas inventories ahead of winter. European gas facilities ended last month about 55% full, well below both the five-year average and the level recorded at the same time last year, leaving storage levels behind the pace needed to meet pre-winter inventory targets before the heating season begins in November 1.

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Energies

August 3, 2026

Gasoline Hits 3-Week Low

US gasoline futures fell toward $3.0 per gallon in early August, declining for the third consecutive session to a three-week low after President Donald Trump canceled a planned attack on Iran, easing some concerns over supply disruptions in the region. Trump said Saudi Arabia and other key Middle Eastern allies had urged him to suspend the planned strikes in favor of renewed negotiations, while reiterating his call for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Gulf producers continued seeking alternative export routes, with Turkey and Iraq extending a pipeline agreement, while Iran said talks with Oman on a new route through the Strait of Hormuz were in their final stages. In Russia, the government extended its diesel and gasoline export ban through January 2027 as fuel shortages persisted amid continued Ukrainian strikes on major oil refineries.

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Energies

August 3, 2026

Heating Oil Falls for Third Session

US heating oil futures fell toward $4.0 per gallon in early August, extending losses for a third straight session, as President Donald Trump canceled a planned attack on Iran. Trump said Saudi Arabia and other key Middle Eastern allies had urged him to halt the planned strikes and resume negotiations, while continuing to press for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The development provided some relief after days of escalating tensions, easing concerns over supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Gulf producers continued to pursue alternative export routes, with Turkey and Iraq extending a pipeline agreement, while Iran said talks with Oman on a new route through the strait were in their final stages. Separately, Russian diesel supplies remained constrained by ongoing Ukrainian attacks on major oil refineries, prompting Moscow to extend its diesel and gasoline export ban through January 2027.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Platinum Rises to 6-Week High

Platinum futures rose above $1,660 an ounce, touching a six-week high as precious metals broadly advanced after oil prices retreated amid renewed hopes of a peace deal in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran will resume after key Middle Eastern allies urged a diplomatic solution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, markets continued to price in a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year despite policymakers leaving interest rates unchanged last week, as several officials warned that waiting too long could require more aggressive tightening. The platinum market was also weighed down by expectations for softer industrial and automotive demand despite the tight supply outlook. The ongoing shift toward electric vehicles, which do not require autocatalysts, has clouded demand prospects even as the market is forecast to post a fourth straight annual supply deficit due to constrained mine supply and declining above-ground inventories.

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Markets

August 3, 2026

Zinc Climbs to Over 4-Year High

Zinc futures climbed above $3,650 per tonne, the highest level since June 2022, as prospects of reduced Chinese mine and smelter production heightened concerns over near-term supply. Production adjustments at a zinc mine in Southwest China are expected to reduce zinc concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes in August, while scheduled maintenance at a major smelter in Central China could cut production by 1,000-1,500 tonnes, further limiting concentrate availability. Among key producers, Glencore reported a 21% year-on-year decline in own-sourced zinc production in the first half of 2026, although it maintained its full-year production guidance. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production dropped 16.8% quarter-on-quarter, while MMG fell 1% year-on-year in the second quarter. Prices were also supported by a weaker US dollar, making greenback-priced commodities more attractive to overseas buyers.

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Markets

August 1, 2026

Forecasting the upcoming week: US labor market takes center stage after hawkish Fed split

The first full week of August will test whether the US Dollar can recover from its sell-off during the last week of July as investors shift their attention from central bank decisions to a fresh round of economic data. The spotlight will be on July's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, while ISM surveys, ADP Employment figures and JOLTS Job Openings will offer additional clues on the strength of the US economy. In Europe, investors will assess whether inflationary pressure is beginning to ease through Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales and Factory Orders data. Meanwhile, China will release key PMI and trade figures that could influence commodity-linked currencies, particularly the Australian Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 99.90 and will take its main direction from Friday's July employment report. Markets expect the economy to add 91K jobs, following June's 57K, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to edge up to 4.3%. Before then, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Employment will provide important signals on labor market momentum and economic activity. Stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce the Fed's hawkish bias, while softer data may revive expectations of policy easing. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.14%-0.29%0.03%-0.19%-0.21%0.35%EUR0.06%-0.09%-0.22%0.08%-0.14%-0.17%0.41%GBP0.14%0.09%-0.15%0.17%-0.06%-0.10%0.50%JPY0.29%0.22%0.15%0.36%0.14%0.10%0.68%CAD-0.03%-0.08%-0.17%-0.36%-0.21%-0.25%0.33%AUD0.19%0.14%0.06%-0.14%0.21%-0.04%0.53%NZD0.21%0.17%0.10%-0.10%0.25%0.04%0.59%CHF-0.35%-0.41%-0.50%-0.68%-0.33%-0.53%-0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The EUR/USD pair is holding onto gains near the 1.1530 price region. Next week's outlook will be driven by a busy economic calendar. Monday brings June Retail Sales and final Manufacturing PMIs, while Wednesday features Services PMIs and Producer Price Index data. German Factory Orders and another Retail Sales release later in the week will offer further insight into domestic demand and industrial activity. Sticky inflation combined with resilient activity could continue supporting the Euro, although stronger US data may cap EUR/USD upside. The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3480 as it closes the week. The United Kingdom (UK) has a relatively quiet calendar, leaving GBP/USD primarily driven by US economic releases. As a result, the pair may remain highly sensitive to ISM surveys, ADP employment and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls. USD/JPY ends July near the 159.10 level after intervention suspicion. In Japanese markets, the focus is on June Labor Cash Earnings and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Investors will look for additional evidence that wage growth remains consistent with the BoJ's tightening path following last week's policy meeting. Any signs of stronger wage inflation could provide additional support for the Japanese Yen. AUD/USD trades near the 0.7040 level. The AUD/USD pair will face an important week as China publishes Caixin Services PMI and July trade data, both closely watched given Australia's strong trade relationship with China. Domestically, Australia's Trade Balance will provide another update on external demand. Positive Chinese data could support the Australian Dollar, while weaker figures may revive concerns over regional growth. Gold ends the week near $4,050 on a lower note. Investors will closely monitor US labor-market data and Treasury yields throughout the week. Strong employment data would likely support the US Dollar and yields, limiting Gold's upside, while weaker figures could revive demand for the precious metal.

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Banks

August 1, 2026

Bank of Canada: Strong GDP lowers cut risk – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that stronger-than-expected Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data support a brighter growth outlook but do not materially change their Bank of Canada (BoC) view. They highlight that Q2 GDP is tracking above BoC projections, yet still expect policy rates to remain unchanged through 2026 before a gradual hiking cycle begins in early 2027. BoC seen on extended 2026 hold "The Canadian growth outlook looks a little brighter after industry-level GDP rose by 0.3% m/m in May (0.34% unrounded) for an upside surprise against expectations (TD & market) for a 0.2% increase and flash estimates for GDP to rise by 0.1%." "This report leaves Q2 GDP tracking at 3.4%, above BoC projections, but we look for the Bank to stay patient before hiking rates in 2027." "While this report bodes well for the near-term growth outlook, the Bank of Canada can remain patient going forward." "The upside surprise on May GDP should give the Bank some added confidence that the economy is adjusting this environment of heightened uncertainty, but we continue to look for the Bank to stay on hold through 2026 as excess supply is slowly absorbed before hiking to 2.75% in early 2027." "We continue to see the BoC staying on hold for 2026, and imagine it would feel quite comfortable with that decision after today's print."

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Banks

August 1, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention slows but does not reverse trend – ING

ING’s Chris Turner describes USD/JPY’s rollercoaster, with a 3% drop on reported Japanese intervention followed by a near 2% rebound. He notes that coordinated Fed-Treasury involvement was key in January but now sees the story as having moved on. Turner expects more Japanese FX intervention, yet believes it can only slow, not reverse, the underlying USD/JPY bull trend without a clearer Fed shift. Japanese action tempers but does not end the rally "USD/JPY has been on a rollercoaster, falling 3% yesterday on Japanese intervention, only to bounce back near 2% overnight. The Nikkei reported that Japanese authorities did indeed intervene yesterday and that the Fed, as it did in January, also checked rates yesterday afternoon." "Back in January, the Fed checking USD/JPY rates on behalf of the US Treasury was a big story which reflected the co-ordinated nature of intervention and the shared concern by the US and Japan over the weak yen." "However, the story has moved on now, and we would need to see some own-account intervention from US authorities to give USD/JPY another leg lower." "We could well see some more Japanese FX intervention today and early next week, since intervention typically comes in blocks of a few days." "But until we get a clearer signal that the Fed is not going to hike in September and the broader dollar trend clearly turns lower, intervention can only slow rather than reverse the underlying USD/JPY bull trend."

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Banks

August 1, 2026

Euro: Range seen around mid‑1.15s against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s FX team notes EUR/USD is drifting toward 1.15 after a Fed‑driven rally, with euro area CPI broadly in line with expectations and French data briefly lifting the Euro. Rate expectations are stabilizing, with about 42 bps of tightening priced by December. Their fair‑value estimate sits in the mid‑1.15s, with a near‑term 1.1450–1.1550 range. Euro consolidates Fed‑driven gains "The EUR is soft, down 0.2% vs. the USD with a drift toward 1.15 and a slight fade of this week’s rally. The preliminary euro area’s CPI release for July has offered little in terms of movement for spot, with headline coming in as expected at 2.9% y/y and core printing 2.5% y/y (vs. 2.4% exp.)." "The French CPI data, released earlier, offered a modest lift to the EUR as the figures came in well above expectations. However the impact was short-lived as broader themes took hold. Comments from the ECB have been limited and the speaking calendar is empty over the next week or so." "Rate expectations are showing signs of stabilization following their recent pullback and the market is currently pricing about 22bpts of tightening for September with a cumulative 42bpts of tightening by December. 2Y spreads (Germany-US) remain well supported and our narrow FV estimate is in the mid-1.15s." "Bullish – the RSI remains bullish in the upper 50s and has seen an impressive reversal from the oversold (sub-30) bullish levels reached in late June. The 50 day MA (1.1482) has been broken and the daily chart offers little in terms of resistance ahead of 1.16. We look to a near-term range bound between support at 1.1450 and resistance at 1.1550. "

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Markets

August 1, 2026

Three Markets to Watch Next Week

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, although Kevin Warsh himself sought to maintain a hawkish stance while not suggesting that rate hikes are expected anytime soon. The final days of July also brought a distinct improvement in sentiment across the technology sector, coinciding with financial results publications from major Big Tech companies. The Middle East situation remains a critical risk factor, even as OPEC+ countries attempt to restore as much commodity volume to the market as possible. This week, investors will analyze earnings reports from additional major companies, including recent market entrant SpaceX. Beyond this, a full marathon of economic data from the United States awaits, culminating in the cherry on top: the US labor market NFP report. Consequently, investor focus should center on markets such as US100 (Nasdaq 100 futures), USDJPY, and Brent Crude Oil. US100 (Nasdaq 100 Futures) This coming Tuesday (August 4), following the Wall Street closing bell, SpaceX will release its financial report for the first time since going public. These results will provide a strong boost to sentiment surrounding the high-tech sector. However, SpaceX is not the only crucial earnings release for Wall Street this week, as reports are also expected from companies such as AMD, Palantir, Uber, and Cloudflare. Index and futures quotes will be shaped by a series of key readings from the American economy. Early in the week, the ISM manufacturing index will be released, followed by the JOLTS report on Tuesday, the ADP reading and ISM service index on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The flagship event from a macroeconomic calendar perspective will be Friday's labor market report from the United States. Forecasts indicate moderate employment growth of 65 thousand (resulting from the expiration of temporary employment following the world cup) alongside a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. A weaker reading would support a less hawkish stance from the Fed and could fuel further gains for technology stocks. USDJPY The USDJPY currency pair registered a steep decline on the final Thursday of July following currency intervention, verbal support from the United States, and hawkish remarks from Governor Ueda after the decision to hold interest rates steady. Nevertheless, the pair remains firmly anchored near the 160 level, which previously served as resistance and now acts as support. This week, the primary catalyst for movement will be the behavior of US Treasury yields in response to US labor market releases (JOLTS, ADP, and NFP). On Wednesday (August 5), minutes from the June Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting will be published. Although this report is significantly delayed, it could shed light on Japanese policymakers' stance regarding future interest rate hikes and the second round effects of high energy prices on core inflation. If Friday's NFP data confirms a rise in US unemployment to 4.3% alongside modest job growth, downward pressure on the dollar combined with hawkish notes in the BOJ minutes will create conditions for renewed strengthening of the yen. Oil (Brent Crude) Given the tight conditions in the fuel market, OPEC+ is striving to restore as much oil to the market as possible. Although recent increases in production targets were visible only on paper, a gradual rise in output is occurring, even with the Strait of Hormuz partially closed and heightened tension in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Last week, market anxieties resurfaced due to the resumption of military strikes involving Iran. Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East generate a risk premium, while a potential escalation of military operations poses a direct threat to transit routes and supply stability for the commodity. For commodity valuations, today's US manufacturing ISM figures and Friday's foreign trade data from China will be important. The projected double-digit expansion in Chinese exports (+24.5% year over year) driven by global demand for AI equipment could provide a powerful demand boost for the energy market.

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Earnings

August 1, 2026

Who will surprise with the earnings next week

Despite the fact that the largest technology companies have already released their results, with mixed outcomes, the earnings season is still ongoing. The coming week is also very rich in major releases. The first week of August will feature earnings mainly from “second-tier” and “third-tier” technology companies as well as industrial firms. Regardless of an industry or a company’s business model, earnings season is full of companies whose results have the greatest chance of surprising, either positively or negatively. Fidelity National Information Services (FIS.US) The provider of IT services for banks and financial institutions has lost most of its valuation over recent years. This is not only the result of the “SaaS apocalypse,” but of an actual deterioration in profits. Now, however, the company appears well positioned to attempt a trend reversal. Expectations are fairly low, but roughly USD 3.4 billion in revenue and about USD 1.47 in EPS are not the most important part of the earnings call. The company is rebounding from the “bottom,” but to regain investors’ trust it will be crucial to raise the EBITDA margin while increasing revenue, (at least) maintaining FCF, and reducing leverage. Sentiment will hinge on how the results are received and on the guidance. Management needs to show or promise improvement in the Banking Solutions and Capital Markets segments, mainly through ACV growth. Technical analysis of the FIS.US chart (D1) A strong technical signal pointing to a trend reversal would be a breakout from the narrowing descending triangle, followed by reaching and holding the ~USD 60 level. Source: xStation5 Atlassian (TEAM.US) The software vendor is one of the companies the market has “doomed” because of AI, yet this is not visible in the results. The company is in a phase of rapid growth whose pace is clearly underestimated by the market. The market sees EPS at around USD 1.1, but the company has beaten expectations by low double digits to several dozen percent in its last 15 earnings calls.Importantly, this momentum is accelerating, and valuation momentum suggests the market is starting to shift its sentiment toward the company, though it is still not fully convinced. Importantly, this momentum is accelerating, and valuation momentum suggests the market is starting to shift its sentiment toward the company, though it is still not fully convinced. However, revenue or EPS is not the key.The most important metrics are cloud revenue and short-term receivables.Growth in this segment will need to stay above 25%.This matters because in the previous quarter the company achieved about 30% growth in key segments, and the market is currently pricing in normalization. The most important metrics are cloud revenue and short-term receivables. Growth in this segment will need to stay above 25%. This matters because in the previous quarter the company achieved about 30% growth in key segments, and the market is currently pricing in normalization. The company has not been this well positioned to beat expectations in a long time. Spotify (SPOT.US) The music streaming platform operator has set the bar relatively low, through its own guidance. One might even speculate that it is too low. Management has prepared the market for USD 4.8 billion in revenue, 778 million active users (including 299 million “Premium”), and a gross margin of 33.1%. Given the company’s historical growth rate, the expected pace is conservative, if not overly cautious. Operating income of EUR 630 million in the previous quarter drove the share price down about 12%, because the market expected around EUR 680 million.A rise to EUR 700 million is within reach today and well above expectations. A rise to EUR 700 million is within reach today and well above expectations. This is not a bullish thesis without risk, however. R&D/AI costs or customer churn after price increases could pressure results. Caterpillar (CAT.US) This industrial company has delivered gains more typical of technology stocks. Expectations are very high and there is almost no room for error in the results. After the rally the company has experienced, it is positioned on a path toward a post-earnings correction. Selected Caterpillar financial results The company’s recent gains are driven almost entirely by enormous demand fueled by data center expansion. The market expects about USD 19.4 billion in revenue and EPS of about USD 6.2. The “Energy & Transport” segment will be especially important. There are signs, however, that Q1 results included a meaningful seasonal normalization component. Revenue will liekly rise, but more slowly than the market expects, and the ability to expand margins may weaken. DataDog (DDOG.US) The company’s growth rate is huge, but as is often the case with growth companies and/or those with high operating leverage, there is no room for error and they are trapped by enormous market expectations. Beating the consensus of about USD 1.1 billion in revenue and USD 0.6 EPS will not be enough.Another increase in full-year guidance and growth in the number of customers in the +100k ARR segment will be necessary. Another increase in full-year guidance and growth in the number of customers in the +100k ARR segment will be necessary. In addition, the company has conditioned investors to expect around 30% year-over-year growth. Even for “hyper-growth” companies, that is a difficult level to sustain. After the share price has risen almost 100% YTD, even the smallest disappointment could trigger a sharp sell-off or profit taking. Cloudflare (NET.US) The company is doing very well in terms of growth, but the quality of the business is deteriorating. Revenue growth of 34% in Q1 surprised markets, but the margin fell from 77.1% to 72.8%.In the current market environment, this is a very negative signal. In the current market environment, this is a very negative signal. Management decided to reduce headcount by 20%.At this point it is still hard to determine whether this is optimization or a desperate attempt to boost a weakening margin. In any case, it is a risk that needs to be priced in. At this point it is still hard to determine whether this is optimization or a desperate attempt to boost a weakening margin. In any case, it is a risk that needs to be priced in. Beyond margin and profit, the market may also look at the quality of growth.For a SaaS company, that will mainly mean the level of short-term receivables, net ARR, and growth in the number of “+100k” customers. For a SaaS company, that will mainly mean the level of short-term receivables, net ARR, and growth in the number of “+100k” customers.

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Markets

August 1, 2026

What July can tell us about where stocks go next

The summer is hurtling by, but this month has been crucial for assessing the main drivers of asset prices as we move through Q2. July has seen an abrupt shift in stock market leadership. The best performing indices for 2026 so far have been the worst performing sectors this month. The Kospi is down 23%, the Shenzen index in China is lower by 16%, and Japan’s Nikkei is down 9%. In contrast, the top performers include the FTSE 100, which is higher by 4% this month, the Dax and the Eurostoxx banking index, which is higher by 5.71% this month. European banks have also been one of the top performing indices this year, and the fact that they have sustained gains even when other top performers have sold off, suggests that demand for diversification outside of tech remains among investors. From a stock index perspective, European stocks have outperformed their Asian and US counterparts. Although there has been huge volatility in the AI trade, the Nasdaq composite index is only lower by 2% this month, while the Nasdaq 100 is down 5%. The weakest US indices this month included the Nasdaq Telecommunications Index and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index, which are lower by 19% and 18% respectively. The major recovery in US tech stocks on Thursday, stopped these indices from falling into bear market territory. Without Thursday’s strong rally, the Nasdaq 100 was on course for correction territory. This suggests two things as we move towards August: 1, The AI trade is back on, but the leadership may rotate away from chip stocks and towards the hyperscalers that have evidence they can monetize their AI investments. While SanDisk and Micron were top performers on Thursday, Microsoft was the 7th best performer in the Nasdaq 100 yesterday. It has been a long time since Microsoft has led the Nasdaq 100 higher, and it could be a sign that the hyperscalers, which have sold off sharply this year, could make a comeback. Even Meta, which sold off sharply on Thursday after an underwhelming earnings report, is higher in the pre-market on Friday and is up 1%, so far. 2, Earnings season is having a major impact on the direction of markets as we move through Q3. Next week we will see a flurry of earnings reports, including SpaceX, which will also be important for sentiment towards the index. Thus, although European indices have had a strong run, the Eurostoxx 600 and the FTSE 100 have all made record highs this week, we could see US tech make a comeback as investors focus on earnings data. From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq 100 has moved well away from 200-day sma support at 26,690. The next major level of resistance that this index needs to clear is the 50-day sma at 29,590. Momentum indicators are moving into positive territory, although the MACD is not yet in oversold territory. European indices remain resilient to energy price spike While European equity strength is not the main story as we end July, it is remarkable how well the European indices have performed even though the Brent crude oil price has risen by 20% in the past month, central bankers remain concerned about inflation risks, and market-based interest rates have risen sharply. We believe that European stocks have been resilient in the face of these threats for one main reason, the oil price is high, but it is not in disaster territory and has not scaled back to $100 per barrel. This means that on an average basis the oil price is at a moderate level, which is easier for European corporates to absorb. Q2 Earnings season round up: Europe: So far, Eurostoxx 600 earnings are running well ahead of expectations, for those companies that have already reported results, headline EPS growth is 17%, well ahead of the 11% expected. Energy stocks are doing the heavy lifting, however, if you strip out energy the growth rate is a modest 7%. There is a fear that earnings growth will not be broad based. With 70% of the European index still to report, if earnings growth slips in the coming weeks, then we could see European stock struggle. US: earnings growth for the S&P 500 has been stunning so far, rising by 37% YoY, which is the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2021. Alphabet’s strong earnings report gave the earnings number a major boost last week, however, even if you strip out Alphabet, the growth rate is still a respectable 25%. Thus, as we move through Q3, we think that the focus could be on US earnings outperformance, which could give US stocks the edge for the rest of the summer. Chart 1: Nasdaq 100 Source: XTB

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Markets

July 31, 2026

Trade of the day – US100

Facts: Azure revenue grew 82% YoY , Google Cloud revenue increased 32% YoY , and AWS revenue rose 37% YoY . On July 29, 2026 , the FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% . The decision was approved by a 9–3 vote , with three members favoring a 25 bp rate hike . In June , core PCE increased by just 0.1% MoM , while headline PCE declined by 0.1% MoM . Recommendation: Position: Long US100 at market price Take Profit (TP1): 29,300 Take Profit (TP2): 30,000 Stop Loss (SL): 27,800 Source: xStation5 Opinion The recent decline in the US100 appears to be a technical correction within a broader uptrend rather than the beginning of a sustained trend reversal. The index has returned above the 28,200-point area, which previously acted as a key support zone and coincides with the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. The correction occurred despite solid quarterly earnings from the largest technology companies. The macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed but is not unequivocally negative. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, while both headline and core inflation slowed compared with the previous month. Although several FOMC members favored a rate hike, markets have interpreted the outcome of the meeting as signaling a more accommodative stance for the second half of the year. From a technical perspective, the index continues to hold above its key structural support.

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Forex Trading

July 31, 2026

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD after the Fed meeting. The market scales back rate hike expectations

Friday’s session on EURUSD is focused on the market’s continued assessment of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and the latest macroeconomic data from the United States. The market is increasingly assuming that the Fed will not rush into further rate hikes, although recent data still shows that the US economy remains relatively resilient. Wednesday’s Fed decision did not bring any change in interest rates, but the communication from the central bank was more important than the decision itself. Kevin Warsh stressed that the Fed needs to remain cautious and cannot declare victory over inflation too quickly. At the same time, the lack of a clear signal pointing towards the need for further policy tightening was interpreted by the market as confirmation that the current hiking cycle may be close to an end. Before the meeting, market pricing suggested the possibility of two more rate hikes this year. This scenario is now significantly less likely, which removes one of the key sources of support for the US dollar. Another factor affecting the US currency was yesterday’s macroeconomic data. US GDP growth is slowing, PCE inflation is gradually declining, although it remains elevated, while the labour market continues to show strong resilience. Today’s CPI inflation release from the euro area will be another important signal for future European Central Bank decisions. EURUSD is currently caught between two opposing narratives. On one side, reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes are weighing on the dollar. On the other hand, the US economy continues to perform relatively well, allowing the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance. On the euro side, the market is waiting for confirmation that inflation in Europe will continue to decline and that the ECB will have room to begin easing monetary policy. Source: xStation5 Factors currently shaping EURUSD Fed moves closer to the end of the hiking cycle The most important event for the currency market in recent days was the Federal Reserve meeting. The decision to leave interest rates unchanged was largely expected, which is why the main focus was placed on the central bank’s communication. Kevin Warsh did not reinforce expectations of further interest rate hikes. The Fed continues to emphasise the need for caution in its fight against inflation, but at the same time it is not signalling that additional increases in borrowing costs are currently the base-case scenario. This marks a significant shift compared with the situation before the meeting. Previously, the market was pricing in the possibility of further rate increases as inflation remained elevated and the US economy continued to show considerable resilience. Those expectations have now been clearly reduced. For the dollar, this means a loss of some support from the prospect of further interest rate increases. However, this does not automatically signal the beginning of a sustained downward trend for the US currency. The Fed will continue to react to incoming data, and persistent inflation leaves the possibility of keeping rates higher for longer. US data points to a slowdown, but the economy remains resilient The latest macroeconomic releases paint an increasingly complex picture of the US economy. GDP growth is gradually slowing, which reflects the impact of previous rate hikes and tighter financial conditions. Slower economic momentum reduces the scope for further monetary tightening. At the same time, PCE inflation, one of the most important indicators for the Federal Reserve, remains above levels considered consistent with the central bank’s target. However, the direction of travel is positive, as price pressures are gradually easing. The strongest argument for continued Fed caution remains the labour market. Despite high interest rates, employment conditions remain relatively strong, and consumer spending in the US continues to show resilience. For the dollar, this creates a mixed picture. Slower growth and declining inflation do not support the case for another hiking cycle, but economic resilience allows the Fed to maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. Eurozone inflation as an important test for the ECB On the euro side, the key event remains today’s CPI inflation release from the euro area. The market will focus not only on the inflation level itself, but also on the pace of price moderation. For the ECB, the key question is whether inflation is declining quickly enough to allow the central bank to begin easing monetary policy in the future. If the data show that inflation remains persistent, particularly in the services sector, this could reduce expectations for rapid rate cuts in Europe. Such a scenario would provide support for the euro. On the other hand, a stronger decline in inflation would increase expectations that the ECB has greater room to lower interest rates. In that case, the advantage from the interest rate differential could shift back in favour of the dollar. Bond yields remain crucial for the dollar Despite the change in expectations surrounding the Fed, US bond yields remain a very important factor for the currency market. A decline in inflation alone does not necessarily mean a lasting weakening of the dollar. If the Fed keeps interest rates at elevated levels for longer, dollar-denominated assets may continue to remain attractive. For this reason, the market is currently focused not only on economic data itself, but also on how central banks respond to those developments. The key issue will be how quickly expectations for future Fed and ECB policy paths change. EURUSD waits for the next catalyst The current situation on EURUSD reflects a clash between two different scenarios. The Fed has signalled that the room for further rate hikes is becoming limited, which is negative for the dollar. At the same time, the US economy remains relatively resilient, and the labour market does not yet provide a strong argument for rapid rate cuts. For the euro, inflation data and future ECB decisions will remain crucial. If inflation in Europe declines more slowly than the market expects, the euro could receive support. If the disinflation process accelerates, pressure on the common currency could increase. EURUSD therefore remains primarily a reflection of differences in monetary policy expectations. For the market, the key issue is no longer only the current inflation level, but which central bank will have more room to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer. Key takeaways The Fed left interest rates unchanged, and the lack of a clear signal for further tightening reduced expectations of additional rate hikes. The market has significantly lowered the pricing of further rate increases in the US. US data point to slower economic growth and gradually easing inflation, but the labour market remains strong. Today’s eurozone CPI inflation data will be an important signal for future ECB decisions. The direction of EURUSD will largely depend on whether the Fed’s stance changes faster or whether the ECB will be forced to maintain higher interest rates for longer.

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Markets

July 31, 2026

Nickel Holds Near 1-Month High

Nickel traded around $17,300 per tonne in late July, remaining near its highest level in over a month and up more than 5% over the month as supply concerns in Indonesia supported prices. Indonesian smelters operated by Tsingshan Holding Group, the world's largest nickel producer, suspended some export loadings of mixed hydroxide precipitate and disrupted exports of other nickel products as authorities increased inspections over possible rare-earth content in shipments. The delays raised concerns over potential supply disruptions in the world's largest nickel-producing country, although the government moved to resolve regulatory bottlenecks by coordinating with industry participants and government agencies. Additionally, expectations of tighter Indonesian production controls and higher sulfur costs continued to support prices.

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Banks

July 31, 2026

Euro: Supported by growth surprise – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that EUR/USD has broken back above 1.15 for the first time since mid-June as Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outpaced United States (US) growth in annualised terms. He highlights a very low US savings rate as a potential drag on future US GDP and sees recent inflation data making it easier for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates in September. Baur cautions that part of the latest EUR/USD move may reverse if BoJ-related flows fade. Euro benefits from relative growth "So, as of yesterday evening, we’re back above 1.15 - for the first time since June 17. And there was certainly no shortage of data yesterday to justify this jump: Looking at the details, US GDP growth was quite robust. At the end of the day, however, the 1.5% increase was lower than the consensus had expected." "And what seems even more decisive with regard to the EUR/USD exchange rate: Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, which, according to the US method of calculation (seasonally adjusted and annualized), amounts to 1.6%. That’s faster than in the US." "In addition to the growth figures, inflation data from individual EU countries and the PCE deflator from the US were also released. And while the annual rate of the PCE deflator declined slightly and the monthly figure was even slightly below expectations, the annual rates in Spain, Belgium, and Germany rose slightly - at least in terms of the overall rate. All in all, then, a picture that should make it somewhat easier for the ECB to raise interest rates again in September." "It must be noted although, that a major driver of yesterday’s movement in EUR/USD came at around 4 pm from the US dollar side and corresponded with a sudden appreciation of the Japanese yen. According to media reports, this appears to have been an intervention by the Bank of Japan with the assistance of the US Treasury Department" "Some of yesterday’s EUR/USD movement could therefore be reversed in the coming days. However, that does not change the fact that yesterday was a good day for the euro."

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Banks

July 31, 2026

Oil: Middle distillate tightness supports prices – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices have pulled back, with ICE Brent dropping below $90/bbl even as US–Iran tensions stay high. They highlight recovering flows from the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz and pipelines, and stress that US SPR constraints and Russia’s extended diesel export ban keep middle distillate markets tight, with European supply risks via the Red Sea. Brent pressured as distillates stay tight "Oil prices came under pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 1.9% lower on the day, taking it back below $90/bbl. This weakness comes despite little improvement in tensions between the US and Iran." "There are signs of an increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Ship tracking data shows that tanker crossings have increased slightly." "However, the US energy secretary has said that around 13m b/d of oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf, with roughly half coming through the strait. The other half is using pipelines to bypass the strait." "The US also appears to have ruled out further releases from its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), once the ongoing release of 172m barrels is complete. The SPR currently stands at a little under 308m barrels, and there’s growing concern over how much further this reserve could be tapped, given operational minimum levels." "Middle distillate markets are set to remain tight, with Russia extending its ban on diesel exports until 1 September. Russia is the second-largest exporter of diesel, shipping more than 700k b/d in 2025."

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Banks

July 31, 2026

Indian Rupee: Flows recovering as Dollar strength caps gains – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes India’s onshore markets are being pulled between higher Oil prices and improving capital flows. Rising crude has lifted USD/INR and long-end bond yields, while the Finance Ministry warns high energy costs could pressure the current and fiscal accounts. Portfolio inflows and swap-window funding are recovering, yet the Indian Rupee (INR) remains weaker against the US Dollar (USD). Oil shock versus improving capital flows "India’s onshore markets are currently caught between two opposing forces: higher oil prices driven by renewed Middle East hostilities (and concern over Red Sea), and a strengthening inflows picture." "A surge in benchmark crude prices pushed up USD/INR, necessitating a strong intervention response from the central bank to keep the domestic currency from revisiting record lows." "The spot-neutral nature of inflows under the swap windows, increased hedging-related demand, authorities’ preference to mop-up inflows to gradually lower their exposure in the forwards book as well as a firm US dollar due to US policy tightening expectations, have constrained the room for sharp gains in the rupee." "Overnight dollar pullback on Friday, will be briefly supportive of Asian currencies led by the yen, before the rupee returns to familiar play, with 95.00 to mark a floor." "Despite the turnaround in inflows, the rupee has depreciated 1.1% this month, and a cumulative 6% on CYTD, against the dollar."

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Banks

July 31, 2026

Bank of England: Dovish hold shapes Pound outlook – UOB

UOB strategists highlight that the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate at 3.75%, with Governor Bailey stressing no move toward a hike despite US-Iran conflict risks. The BoE reiterated it stands ready to act if inflation stays elevated, but softer price pressures led markets to scale back September hike expectations, even as a three-member minority backed a 25 bps increase. Dovish stance tempers rate hike bets "The Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, with Governor Andrew Bailey stating that the committee is not moving closer to a rate hike." "While the Monetary Policy Committee remains attentive to the inflationary risks stemming from the US-Iran conflict and the possibility of a prolonged escalation, it noted that price pressures have been softer than expected." "The BoE maintained its guidance that it "stands ready to act" should inflation remain persistently elevated." "Following the decision, traders reduced expectations of a rate increase at the September meeting." "Catherine Mann joined Megan Greene and Chief Economist Huw Pill in voting for a 25bps rate hike, while the remaining six members, including Bailey, voted to keep rates unchanged, citing softer inflationary pressures."

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Banks

July 31, 2026

Euro: Upside risks after sharp Dollar shift – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that EUR/USD broke above 1.150 as broad Dollar weakness persisted, even as the Euro underperformed some G10 peers despite stronger Eurozone data. With Eurozone CPI in focus and a September ECB hike largely priced, he sees near-term risks tilted to the upside for EUR/USD, though moves above 1.160 may prove unsustainable without further USD repricing. Euro supported but gains seen as fragile "EUR/USD broke through 1.150 with little resistance yesterday as the dollar came under broad-based pressure. While the euro initially outperformed most G10 peers after the Fed announcement, it lagged behind yesterday despite stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth (0.4% QoQ) and hotter July inflation readings in Germany and Spain." "Eurozone-wide inflation data is out today, with consensus expectations at 2.9% for headline and 2.4% for core. Still, upside room for front-end EUR rates looks somewhat contained at this stage." "With a September hike from the European Central Bank largely priced in, markets will likely need a stronger signal from either oil prices or inflation to return to pricing 2.75% by year-end." "We think the sharp shift in USD momentum leaves near-term risks tilted to the upside for EUR/USD. Some stabilisation may be seen today, but next week’s packed US calendar can provide fresh catalysts." "At this stage, we would not view a move above 1.160 as very sustainable unless markets repriced USD rates materially lower again and Middle East tensions eased. Still, EUR/USD may continue to find buyers around the 1.150 level for a while longer."

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Energies

July 31, 2026

WTI falls to near $80.50 on profit-taking, increased traffic through Strait of Hormuz

WTI slumps to near $80.50 in Friday’s early European session, down 2.60% on the day. Signs of increased oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and profit-taking drag the WTI price lower. Iran’s Parliament Speaker said the US will 'pay the price' for killing Iranian civilians. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $80.50 during the early European trading hours on Friday. WTI tumbles as traders book some profits despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.  Profit-taking set in following the previous day's sharp rally. Additionally, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up in recent days, with the US claiming its navy escorted some tankers across the waterway. Fourteen commodity vessels transited the critical waterway on Wednesday, up from single digits last week, according to Kpler. However, ongoing hostilities in the Middle East might underpin the black gold. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Thursday that the United States (US) will "pay the price" for killing Iranian civilians, per the Guardian.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that it targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain after US forces bombed a building on Iran’s Qeshm Island. IRGC further stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that the “aggressor will be punished.” US crude oil inventories fell by more than expected last week. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 24 dropped by 7.167 million barrels, compared to a rise of 2.011 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a decline of 2.5 million barrels. OPEC+ seen completing voluntary cut unwind before likely pause Analysts at ING expect OPEC+ to confirm a further supply increase when the group meets on 2 August, projecting an additional “188k b/d for September.” They note that this move “would see the full unwinding of the 1.65m b/d of voluntary cuts announced back in 2023,” effectively restoring all of the extra curbs that had been in place. However, ING also points to reports suggesting the alliance “will likely pause any further supply increases following the September increase,” signaling a more cautious stance on adding barrels beyond that point.

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Banks

July 31, 2026

Japanese Yen: Intervention and cautious BoJ stance – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervened in FX markets, with apparent US Treasury support, to address a weak Japanese Yen as Tokyo inflation stabilises around 2% with upside risks. However, the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and only hinted at a more hawkish stance, which Baur deems insufficient to alter market expectations or prevent renewed Yen weakness in coming days and weeks. BoJ caution keeps yen vulnerable "The stage was set. Yesterday’s intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) clearly showed that the government is concerned about the Japanese yen being too weak. Support from the US Treasury Department also indicated that the move would likely be met with a favorable response internationally." "This morning’s inflation data for the Greater Tokyo Area further show that inflation is now slowly stabilizing at 2%, and the momentum of recent months points more toward an upside risk." "Despite all this, however, the Bank of Japan stuck to its course this morning and acted (too) cautiously. The key interest rate remained unchanged, but this was to be expected. There were also slight hints toward a more hawkish monetary policy." "All of this is likely to be insufficient to prevent the JPY from trading weaker again in the coming days and weeks. The past few months (and yesterday) have shown that while the Ministry of Finance (MoF) is willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate that triggers such intervention appears to be shifting higher and higher toward a weaker JPY. There is therefore little reason to believe that this will change in the coming weeks."

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Earnings

July 31, 2026

Apple is still impressive, but the market is no longer impressed

At first glance, Apple’s latest results are difficult to describe as anything other than solid. The company once again beat analyst expectations, revenue surpassed $109 billion, and its most important product, the iPhone, showed significant strength. Despite that, the initial market reaction has been negative, with Apple shares falling in after-hours trading. This reaction says a lot about where the company currently stands. Investors are no longer questioning whether Apple is a great business. That has been proven for years. The question the market is asking today is whether, given the company’s current scale, Apple can still find new sources of growth that justify the extremely high expectations surrounding the stock. That does not mean the report itself deserves much criticism. Apple ended its fiscal third quarter with revenue of $109.4 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts, while earnings per share came in at $2.02 compared with expectations of $1.89. The company once again demonstrated the strength of its business model. Its massive user base, exceptional customer loyalty, and ability to maintain high profitability continue to make Apple one of the highest-quality businesses in the world. The clear highlight of the report was, once again, the iPhone. Revenue from the segment reached $54.25 billion, representing growth of roughly 22% year over year. This result shows that despite the increasing maturity of the smartphone market, Apple is still capable of generating very strong demand. Consumers remain willing to pay premium prices for the latest devices, and the ecosystem built around the iPhone continues to be the company’s greatest competitive advantage. The strength of the iPhone matters for Apple far beyond device sales alone. The company’s enormous installed base of active users creates the foundation for the entire ecosystem of services, applications, and additional products. Every iPhone sold expands the potential customer base for other parts of the business. Today’s results therefore confirm that the core of Apple’s business remains extremely strong. The Mac segment also delivered a positive surprise, returning to growth after a weaker period. Apple continues to benefit from the advantage of its own chips and its strong position among more demanding users. However, the focus of investors today is increasingly shifting toward what lies beyond the traditional hardware business. The biggest questions following the report concern services. Apple Services generated more than $30 billion in revenue and remains one of the most attractive businesses within the entire group. It is a segment with high-quality characteristics, recurring revenue streams, and strong financial margins. In recent years, services have been viewed as Apple’s natural second growth engine, gradually reducing the company’s dependence on hardware replacement cycles. The market, however, was looking for stronger momentum. This does not mean services have become a weak business. Quite the opposite, they remain one of Apple’s most valuable assets. The issue is that, at the company’s current valuation, investors expect this segment to accelerate further and play a more significant role in driving overall growth. The situation in China looks similar. Apple continues to maintain a very strong position in the market, but the results did not deliver the clear breakthrough that some investors were hoping for. China’s smartphone market has become significantly more challenging, with local manufacturers competing more effectively on both price and technology. Apple remains an exceptionally strong brand, but China is no longer an obvious catalyst for another major phase of growth. The biggest challenge for Apple remains finding new areas of expansion beyond its core device business. Today’s report once again confirmed that the iPhone remains an incredibly strong product and that Apple’s ecosystem continues to generate enormous value. At the same time, other segments did not provide investors with a clear signal that would change the long-term perception of the company. Apple remains one of the best businesses in the world. The issue is not the quality of its current operations, but the expectations surrounding its future. At a scale measured in trillions of dollars, the market is no longer satisfied with simply delivering new sales records and steady growth. Investors want to see new sources of expansion that can sustain the company’s growth trajectory in the years ahead. Today’s report is therefore a good example of how expectations have changed for the world’s largest technology companies. Apple no longer needs to prove that it can generate enormous revenue and profits. That has been demonstrated many times over. What the market wants to see is the next chapter of the growth story, and today’s results did not write that chapter yet. Apple delivered a very strong quarter, but it did not deliver a new catalyst. That is exactly why the stock is reacting negatively, even though the underlying numbers remain strong.

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Earnings

July 31, 2026

Amazon’s massive AI bet is starting to pay off

The market has only just begun analyzing Amazon’s latest earnings report, but investors’ initial reaction clearly shows how positively the published results have been received. At the time of writing, shortly before 11:00 p.m., the company’s shares are trading more than 7% higher in after-hours trading. Amazon not only met the market’s already high expectations but significantly exceeded them in the areas that mattered most to investors. Before the report was released, the key question was no longer simply about revenue growth or profit levels. The market wanted to see whether Amazon’s massive investments in data centers, AI infrastructure, and proprietary computing chips were beginning to generate tangible results. Today’s report suggests that this is exactly what is starting to happen. AWS has clearly accelerated, total group revenue surpassed the symbolic $200 billion mark, and Amazon’s artificial intelligence initiatives and custom silicon business have reached a scale that can no longer be viewed merely as a long-term promise. In other words, Amazon’s CapEx is no longer seen by the market only as a massive expense weighing on free cash flow. It is increasingly becoming visible in revenue growth. Amazon ended the second quarter with revenue of $200.6 billion, representing a 20% year-over-year increase and a result well above analysts’ expectations. The scale of the business is remarkable. Amazon is already generating quarterly sales levels that remain unattainable for most global companies even on an annual basis, while still growing at a pace more typical of a company undergoing aggressive expansion. Growth was not limited to a single segment. North American sales increased by 16%, international operations grew revenue by 15%, and the advertising business once again delivered very strong momentum. However, the most important part of the report lies in AWS. Revenue from the cloud segment increased 37% year over year to $42.2 billion. This was significantly above market expectations and represented AWS’s fastest growth rate in 18 quarters. Equally important, higher revenue was accompanied by strong profitability. AWS operating income reached $16.6 billion, compared with $10.2 billion a year earlier. AWS is currently the strongest evidence that Amazon’s record-breaking investments are beginning to translate into a larger-scale business. Demand for computing power, the development of AI models, and the growing adoption of artificial intelligence by enterprises are driving demand for cloud infrastructure. Amazon is expanding its data center capacity while becoming increasingly effective at monetizing this rising demand. The figures related to Amazon’s AI operations and proprietary chips are also particularly interesting. The company announced that both areas have surpassed a $25 billion annualized revenue run rate and are growing at triple-digit rates. This represents a significant shift in how Amazon’s own chips should be viewed. Graviton processors and Trainium AI chips are no longer merely tools designed to optimize costs within Amazon’s internal infrastructure. They are increasingly becoming part of AWS’s commercial offering and a competitive advantage in the race to serve customers adopting AI solutions. However, the spectacular net income figure should be interpreted carefully. Amazon reported $62.6 billion in net profit, or $5.75 per share, but the result was significantly boosted by more than $53 billion in non-operating income, primarily related to its investment in Anthropic. The EPS figure looks impressive, but it does not fully reflect the current operating strength of the business. This does not diminish the quality of the report, however. Operating income increased 43% year over year to $27.5 billion. This metric, combined with AWS acceleration, provides a much clearer picture of the improvement in Amazon’s core operations. The biggest point of discussion remains CapEx. Amazon is investing record amounts in property, equipment, and technological infrastructure, which has resulted in negative free cash flow. Under normal circumstances, this would be a clear warning signal. Today, however, the market is primarily focused on whether these rising expenditures are creating the foundation for future revenue growth. Today’s results provide increasingly strong evidence that this is happening. AWS acceleration, rapidly expanding AI businesses, and the development of proprietary chips suggest that Amazon’s new computing capacity is not being built solely for a distant future. The company is beginning to use these investments to serve real and rapidly growing demand. This does not mean that the full return on these record investments is already visible. The scale of spending remains enormous, and pressure on free cash flow may continue in the coming quarters. However, the market has received a clear signal that these investments are beginning to translate into expanding business scale. The outlook for the third quarter presents a slightly more mixed picture. Amazon expects revenue between $197 billion and $202 billion and operating income between $22.5 billion and $26.5 billion. The guidance remains solid, but it also suggests that after an exceptionally strong second quarter, overall group growth may begin to normalize. Nevertheless, this does not change the main conclusion from today’s report. Amazon delivered where investors were looking for the strongest signals. AWS has clearly accelerated, cloud segment profitability has improved, and AI-related businesses and proprietary chips have reached a scale that is becoming increasingly meaningful for the entire company. Amazon remains an e-commerce giant, but the company’s future potential is increasingly tied to AWS and AI infrastructure. Today’s report shows that record capital spending is no longer simply a cost burden weighing on free cash flow. It is increasingly becoming the foundation for future revenue growth. And that may be the most important change in the Amazon investment narrative following these results.

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Markets

July 31, 2026

Gold drifts lower as USD recovers amid Fed hike bets and geopolitical tensions

Gold meets with a fresh supply on Friday as the USD rebounds from a one-and-a-half-month trough. Escalating US-Iran tensions keep inflation risks and Fed rate hike bets in play, supporting the USD. The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and backs the case for further losses. Gold (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to build on gains beyond the $4,100 mark and drifts lower during the Asian session on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction and reverses part of the previous day's heavy losses to its lowest level since June 17. Furthermore, inflation risks stemming from volatile crude oil prices keep bets on an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) firmly on the table and exert some downward pressure on the non-yielding bullion. The US data released on Thursday pointed to moderating economic growth and signs of cooling inflation, which tempered bets for an immediate Fed rate hike and led to the overnight slump in the USD. In fact, the first estimate published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the previous quarter and consensus estimates. Moreover, the headline US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index fell 0.1% in June, marking the first monthly decline since April 2020 as the temporary truce in the Iran war sent gas prices lower. Adding to this, the yearly rate decelerated from 4.1% to 3.7%, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the core gauge – the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation – rose by 0.1% during the reported month compared to 0.3% in May and eased from 3.4% to 3.3% on an annual basis. However, volatile crude oil prices – due to the US-Iran standoff and concerns about significant disruptions to global energy supplies – suggest that inflation remains a concern. In the latest developments, the US military announced it had completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran, in response to Iranian missile attacks on its forces in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Iran rejected Oman's plan for a 50-50 joint management, which would see Tehran partially control the Strait of Hormuz and collect voluntary fees for using the waterway. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is building an international coalition to protect key shipping routes in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden from repeated attacks by Yemen's Houthi militias. This raises the risk of a wider regional conflict, keeping the geopolitical risk premium in play and supporting crude oil prices. Investors remain worried that rising energy prices would revive inflationary pressure and force the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in over an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which helps revive the USD demand and drives some flows away from the non-yielding Gold. Traders now look to the University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Index for some impetus. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains confined within a multi-week-old range, awaiting a fresh trigger before the next leg of a directional move. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis: Gold once again fails to find acceptance above $4,100 as setup favors bears From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past month or so might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a breakdown below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). That said, mixed momentum indicators warrant some caution. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has eased slightly from recent highs but stays in positive territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just under the 50 line, hinting at a weak recovery within a still-dominant downside backdrop. On the top side, the top boundary of the trading range, around the $4,175 area, could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of $4,200, which, if cleared, should pave the way for additional gains to the 200-day SMA at $4,490.81. Bulls would need to clear the said barrier to ease the prevailing bearish tone and open the way for a more sustained recovery. Meanwhile, immediate support is inferred from recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 area, where buyers previously emerged.

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Markets

July 31, 2026

XAG/USD declines to near $58.40 as US Dollar regains ground

Silver price tumbles to near $58.40 as the US Dollar attempts to snap a three-day losing streak. The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected. Higher oil prices will keep the upside in the Silver price restricted. Silver price (XAG/USD) is down almost 1% to near $58.40 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds slightly, attempting to snap a three-day losing streak. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% higher to near 100.20. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors. However, the Silver price could rebound as the outlook of the US Dollar has become vulnerable following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it left interest rates unchanged and committed to “no forward-guidance” policy. Dollar slides as Fed rhetoric fails to convince markets Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the USD “dropped sharply for two reasons.” They explain that, first, “markets unwounded the residual 30% odds of a July hike,” and second, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “failed to turn tough inflation rhetoric into a credible policy.” BBH warns that Warsh “may now find himself in a more consequential battle with markets that can further raise long-term yields, weaken the dollar, and force the Fed into a more painful response.” Elevated oil prices due to constrained global energy supply amid the ongoing military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran are likely to keep the Silver price’s upside limited. Higher oil prices boost global inflation expectations, which forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions. Such a scenario bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver. Silver technical analysis XAG/USD trades lower at around $58.36, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $58.91. The positioning below this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies remain corrective for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 stays in neutral territory, hinting at subdued downside momentum rather than an outright oversold condition. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $58.91; a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a deeper recovery. Looking up, the next resistance level would be the July 22 high at $60.94. On the downside, the July 28 low at $56.64 and the July 17 low at $54.77 are key support levels.

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Energies

July 31, 2026

Gasoline Retreats Further

US gasoline futures fell below $3.10 per gallon, retreating further from the two-month high of $3.50 reached on July 23, as investors weighed improving shipping activity against ongoing geopolitical risks. Oil shipments from the Middle East picked up as more vessels left the Persian Gulf with transponders turned off, while two Saudi tankers crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait undetected. Additionally, Saudi Arabia proposed an international maritime coalition to protect key shipping routes, with representatives from 43 countries participating in talks to safeguard navigation in the Red Sea following the Iran-backed Houthis' announced blockade against the kingdom. In Russia, the government extended its diesel and gasoline export ban through January 2027 as fuel shortages persisted after Ukrainian drone strikes shut another crude distillation unit. Still, gasoline remained on track for a 5% monthly gain as exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran escalated earlier this month.

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Energies

July 31, 2026

EU Gas Prices Extend Decline

European natural gas prices dropped to around €57 per MWh on Friday, extending losses from the previous session amid signs of improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz despite regional tensions and fresh LNG arrivals in Europe. Qatar sent its first LNG tanker through the waterway in more than three weeks, raising hopes that exports from one of the world's largest LNG suppliers could gradually resume. Steady LNG deliveries to Northwest Europe, along with reliable pipeline flows from Norway, also helped ease supply concerns. Despite the recent pullback, EU gas prices remain more than 33% higher in July, as renewed US-Iran hostilities disrupted Persian Gulf supplies while heatwaves boosted electricity demand, limiting Europe's ability to replenish inventories ahead of winter. EU storage facilities are about 55% full, below the seasonal five-year average and behind the pace needed to comfortably meet pre-winter storage targets before the heating season begins in November.

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Energies

July 31, 2026

Heating Oil Declines

Heating oil futures in the US fell below $4.10 per gallon in late July, pulling back from a nearly four-month high, as investors weighed improving shipping activity against ongoing geopolitical risks. Middle East oil shipments appeared to have picked up in recent days, with more vessels leaving the Persian Gulf undetected and two Saudi tankers successfully transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Separately, Saudi Arabia proposed an international maritime coalition to protect key shipping routes, with representatives from 43 countries participating in talks to safeguard navigation in the Red Sea following the Iran-backed Houthis' announced blockade against the kingdom. Meanwhile, Russian diesel supplies remained constrained by recent Ukrainian attacks on refineries, prompting Moscow to halt exports for all of July. Still, heating oil remained on track for a roughly 27% monthly gain as geopolitical tensions escalated earlier this month amid exchanges of strikes between the US and Iran.

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Earnings

July 30, 2026

Amazon Preview: AWS vs. $200 Billion in CapEx

Amazon has spent years convincing investors that it can simultaneously expand its e-commerce business, scale its advertising operations, and build one of the most profitable cloud businesses in the world. However, today’s earnings release may show that the market has started looking at the company through a completely different lens. The focus is no longer only on revenue growth rates or even profit levels. The increasingly important question is whether the hundreds of billions of dollars invested in data centers and AI infrastructure are beginning to generate measurable returns. AWS remains Amazon’s main engine of growth and profitability. The consensus expects the segment’s revenue to increase by approximately 31% year over year, reaching $40.57 billion. This would represent growth significantly above the overall company level and provide further confirmation that cloud computing remains Amazon’s most important profitability pillar. This time, however, strong growth alone may not be enough. Investors will compare AWS results with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud performance while looking for answers as to whether rising AI infrastructure spending is translating into real demand and future revenue growth. One more theme will dominate the entire report: massive capital expenditures. Amazon is significantly increasing spending on data centers, servers, and infrastructure required for AI development. The consensus expects approximately $52.5 billion in CapEx in the third quarter and more than $200 billion for the full year. The scale of these investments is enormous. The market will therefore not only focus on how much Amazon plans to spend, but above all on whether these expenditures are translating into stronger demand, better utilization of data centers, and future revenue growth. Today’s results will therefore test two things: the strength of AWS and Amazon’s ability to transform massive AI investments into real economic returns. Key Financial Expectations Total company revenue: $197.01 billion Total company revenue growth: approximately 18% year over year AWS revenue: $40.57 billion AWS revenue growth: approximately 31.3% year over year Online stores revenue: $69.92 billion Physical stores revenue: $5.87 billion Third-party seller services revenue: $46.15 billion Advertising revenue: $19.32 billion Subscription services revenue: $13.75 billion North America revenue: $113.95 billion International revenue: $42.71 billion EPS: $1.83 Operating income: $23.61 billion Operating margin: 12% Forward Guidance Expected third-quarter revenue: $203.93 billion Expected third-quarter operating income: $25.07 billion Estimated third-quarter CapEx: $52.46 billion Estimated full-year CapEx: $200.53 billion AWS Remains the Heart of Amazon’s Profits Amazon today is much more than an e-commerce company. Online stores still generate the largest share of revenue, but AWS remains the key driver of profitability growth. The consensus expects AWS revenue of $40.57 billion, representing approximately 31% year-over-year growth. This would be significantly higher than overall company growth and another confirmation that demand for cloud services remains very strong. AWS growth is particularly important because the cloud segment generates significantly higher margins than traditional e-commerce operations. Each additional dollar of AWS revenue can therefore have a greater impact on operating profit than additional sales generated by Amazon’s retail business. For Amazon, AWS is simultaneously a growth engine, a source of profitability, and the foundation of its artificial intelligence strategy. Through AWS, the company provides customers with access to computing power, infrastructure, and services needed to build and deploy AI solutions. If segment growth remains around 31%, Amazon will demonstrate that rising investments in data centers are responding to real demand. However, if growth turns out to be weaker, the market may begin questioning whether the scale of investment is moving ahead of Amazon’s ability to monetize it effectively. AWS Will Be Compared With Microsoft and Alphabet AWS results will not be analyzed in isolation from competitors. Microsoft and Alphabet are also increasing spending on data centers and AI infrastructure. All three companies are competing for customers that require increasing amounts of computing power for model training, data processing, and deployment of artificial intelligence tools. Therefore, today’s report will also serve as a test of AWS’s position relative to Azure and Google Cloud. If AWS delivers growth in line with or above consensus expectations, the market may conclude that Amazon is still successfully benefiting from global cloud demand growth. However, if competitors are growing faster, questions will emerge regarding customer acquisition pace, infrastructure availability, and AWS’s ability to maintain its competitive advantage. In the current investment cycle, the question is no longer simply who owns the largest data centers. Increasingly important is who can best utilize rising demand and transform infrastructure into durable revenue streams. AWS has enormous scale, a broad customer base, and an extensive product offering. Today’s results will show whether these advantages translate into sufficient growth momentum to maintain its leadership position. AI Is More Important Than CapEx Scale Amazon no longer needs to convince the market that it intends to invest enormous amounts of capital. The consensus expects approximately $52.5 billion in capital expenditures in the third quarter and more than $200 billion for the full year. These are levels that would have seemed almost impossible to imagine just a few years ago. Today, however, the announcement of high CapEx spending alone is no longer the biggest surprise. Investors understand the scale of the race for AI infrastructure. They know that data centers, servers, and advanced computing systems require massive investment. The most important question is therefore not how much Amazon will spend. The much more important question is whether these investments are beginning to generate returns. The market will be looking for information regarding: Growth in demand for AI services within AWS Utilization of newly built data centers Availability of computing capacity The pace of customer acquisition Development of Amazon’s own chips The impact of AI on future revenue growth and margins If management shows that new capacity is being quickly adopted by customers, high investment levels may be viewed as a strategic investment in future growth. However, if spending continues to rise without a clear acceleration in revenue growth, the market may begin focusing on pressure on free cash flow. Custom Chips Could Improve AWS Economics One of the areas investors will be watching closely is the development of Amazon’s own chips. Internally developed processors and AI-focused chips could allow Amazon to reduce dependence on external suppliers, better customize infrastructure for customer needs, and lower the cost of providing cloud services. Over the long term, proprietary chips could also improve AWS margins. If Amazon can provide competitive computing power at a lower cost, it may be able to increase margins or offer customers more attractive pricing. However, the market will need concrete evidence regarding the adoption of these solutions. The mere presence of proprietary chips in AWS’s offering will not be enough. The key question will be whether customers are actually increasing their usage of Amazon’s own chips and whether the company can use them to build a competitive advantage against rivals. E-commerce Still Generates the Largest Revenue Although AWS attracts the most attention from investors, Amazon’s core retail business remains the company’s largest source of revenue. The consensus expects approximately $69.9 billion in online store sales and $46.2 billion in revenue from services provided to third-party sellers. The second segment is particularly important for the quality of Amazon’s results. Third-party seller services include commissions, logistics, and other solutions offered to businesses using Amazon’s marketplace. Growing participation from third-party sellers allows Amazon to expand its business without having to finance the entire inventory itself. The consensus expects third-party sellers to account for approximately 60.2% of unit sales. This demonstrates how much Amazon has transformed from a traditional retailer into a broad-based services platform. Advertising remains another important pillar. Expected revenue of approximately $19.3 billion shows that Amazon is becoming increasingly effective at monetizing the traffic generated by its platform. In this way, Amazon’s e-commerce ecosystem is no longer only about selling products. It is also creating higher-margin revenue streams connected with advertising, logistics, and seller services. Guidance May Matter More Than the Q2 Results The consensus expects Amazon’s second-quarter revenue to increase by approximately 18% year over year, reaching $197.01 billion. This represents very strong growth, but the market expects the company’s overall growth rate to moderate in the current quarter. Third-quarter revenue expectations stand at approximately $203.93 billion, meaning investors will pay particular attention to management’s outlook. The second-quarter results will show what happened over the past few months. Guidance will show how Amazon views demand, sales trends, and growth momentum in the coming months. If the outlook is strong, the market may conclude that the slowdown is smaller than currently expected. However, if management provides cautious guidance, investor attention may quickly shift from very strong AWS results toward concerns about weaker overall growth. Margins Remain Strong, but Cash Flow Could Come Under Pressure The consensus expects operating income of approximately $23.6 billion and an operating margin of 12%. In the third quarter, operating income is expected to increase to approximately $25.1 billion. Operational fundamentals therefore remain very strong. Amazon has improved profitability across many segments, and the growth of AWS, advertising, and seller services is increasing the share of higher-margin businesses within the company’s results. The challenge is that strong operating income does not automatically translate into equally strong free cash flow. With annual CapEx exceeding $200 billion, a significant portion of generated cash may be reinvested into data centers and AI infrastructure. Therefore, today’s report will also be a test of the quality of Amazon’s growth. Amazon may show strong revenue growth and rising profits, but investors will want to know how much cash remains after financing record levels of investment. AWS Growth and AI Demand Will Determine the Market Reaction If AWS continues to grow rapidly and demand for AI services accelerates significantly, the market may accept pressure on free cash flow caused by elevated investment levels. However, if CapEx remains extremely high without a corresponding increase in revenue growth, investors may conclude that the return on investment is still too far away. The key issue is not whether Amazon can afford to invest at this scale. The company has the financial strength, market position, and operational capabilities to continue expanding its infrastructure. The key issue is whether these investments are creating a foundation for future earnings growth. The current AI investment cycle is different from previous technology spending cycles. Companies are not simply investing in additional capacity. They are building infrastructure that could become the backbone of future digital services, enterprise applications, and artificial intelligence platforms. For Amazon, AWS is at the center of this transformation. The company must demonstrate that its infrastructure investments are not only increasing available computing capacity but are also generating higher customer demand, stronger revenue growth, and improved profitability. Three Possible Scenarios Positive Scenario The positive scenario assumes a clear beat on consensus expectations, AWS growth above forecasts, and strong guidance for the third quarter. Additional catalysts would include information confirming increasing demand for AI services, high utilization rates of data centers, and progress in developing Amazon’s proprietary chips. In this scenario, even extremely high CapEx spending could be viewed positively. The market would conclude that Amazon is investing in response to real demand and building infrastructure capable of generating future revenue growth. Investors would likely focus on the long-term opportunity rather than short-term pressure on free cash flow. Neutral Scenario The neutral scenario assumes results broadly in line with consensus expectations, solid AWS growth, and no major new information regarding returns on AI investments. Such a report would confirm strong fundamentals but may not be enough to trigger a clearly positive market reaction, especially given the extremely high expectations surrounding CapEx spending. The company would demonstrate stability and continued execution, but investors may still wait for clearer evidence that AI investments are producing measurable economic benefits. Negative Scenario The negative scenario includes weaker AWS growth, cautious third-quarter guidance, and continued increases in spending without clear evidence of monetization. In this case, the market could focus on the risk of slower growth and increasing pressure on free cash flow. Investors may begin questioning whether Amazon is investing too aggressively ahead of actual customer demand. Amazon Faces a Test of AI Monetization Amazon has a very strong fundamental position. AWS is growing faster than the overall company and remains the primary source of earnings growth. Advertising and third-party seller services are increasing the share of more profitable businesses, while operating margins remain strong. Today’s report will provide answers to several key questions: Can AWS maintain growth of around 31%? How does AWS growth compare with Azure and Google Cloud? Is demand for AI services accelerating? How quickly are new data centers being utilized? Are Amazon’s proprietary chips increasing customer interest? Will Amazon increase its investment spending forecasts? How will high CapEx affect free cash flow? Will Prime Day confirm consumer resilience? Will third-quarter guidance exceed expectations? Amazon may deliver very strong results today. However, to convince the market, AWS will need to prove that expanding AI infrastructure is responding to real demand and that massive CapEx spending is beginning to create the foundation for future revenue growth Source: xStation5

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Earnings

July 30, 2026

Chevron preview: Has the market underestimated profit?

On Friday, before trading begins on Wall Street, oil major Chevron will publish its results. Across the entire energy sector, it stands out for the diversity and complexity of its price drivers, even in the context of ongoing market tensions linked to the changing situation in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. The market currently expects EPS to rise to around 5.25 USD per share and revenue to increase to about 63.2 billion USD. This matters because expectations at this level imply earnings per share growth of roughly 70% year over year and more than 300% quarter over quarter. At the same time, it should not be forgotten that in Q1 Chevron already beat profit expectations by about 40% (1.41 USD EPS vs. roughly 0.97 expected). Where is this growth coming from? The source of the market’s stretched expectations for the company’s results seems fairly obvious, but it does not fully cover the topic. It is, of course, not only the huge rise in oil prices, but above all, something many forget: an even bigger increase in fuel prices. This stems from a shortage of refining capacity, which is far less flexible than crude supply itself. Fuels of all kinds are a higher-margin product than crude oil; fuel price increases can persist longer than oil price increases. In addition, fuel is less susceptible to interventions such as releasing stockpiles from strategic reserves. Valero and HF Sinclair have already shown that companies with the right exposure can capture more margin than markets had suspected. Chevron may be the next surprise on this list, but on a much larger scale. However, for the market to believe that Chevron is leveraging its biggest advantages, downstream revenue above 4 billion USD will be key; otherwise, the market may question the quality of the earnings growth. Chevron should become a beneficiary of a range of investments, facilities, and agreements developed by the company over recent years, precisely at the moment when oil prices are at their highest. These include (but are not limited to): TCO (Kazakhstan) Hess (Guyana) Permian Basin Gulf of Mexico Venezuela Profit is not everything In addition to record profit from oil and fuels, cash management and cash flow will also be crucial. Investors will watch closely whether net profit translates into CFFO and how depreciation and amortization of infrastructure look in that context. Even record EPS will not be enough for the stock to rise if it does not translate into CFFO. CFFO determines whether the record profit driven by oil and fuel prices will be transferred to shareholders. In summary, for all the elements of the bullish puzzle to fall into place and truly shock the market, which is possible: EPS must come in above about 5.3 USD Downstream must be at least 4 billion USD Management must declare some form of cash transfer to shareholders In the current context, it should be at least 2.5 billion USD (derived from the CFFO/DD&A relationship) Chevron technical analysis (D1) The price is currently trapped between strong resistance zones around 195 USD and 180 USD. Demand will need a fairly strong impulse to break out of the broad consolidation channel, but the reward could be significant, as Fibonacci levels point to a potential level around 220 USD. Buyers are still supported by long-term trends on the chart (including EMA momentum). Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

July 30, 2026

Trade of The Day – GBP/AUD

Facts: GBPAUD is trading below the 100-period moving average from H4 interval The pair failed to break above the 1:1 structure Recommendation: Trade: Short position on GBPAUD at market price Target: 1.9000 Stop: 1.9235 Opinion: GBPAUD has been trading in a upward trend recently, but the pair may be experiencing a trend reversal. Looking at the pair at the H4 interval, one can see that the price failed to break above the upper limit of the 1:1 structure which, according to the Overbalance strategy, may herald a resumption of a downward trend. As long as the price sits below the 1.9186 the further downward move is the base case scenario. We recommend going short GBPAUD at market price with a target of 1.9000. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 1.9235. Source: xStation5

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Banks

July 30, 2026

US Dollar: Fed reaction function clouds dollar outlook – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged, and Chair Warsh’s failure to clearly justify the pause, triggered a sell-off at the long end of US Treasuries and modest Dollar weakness. He stresses that Fed credibility is now in question, inflation expectations have jumped, and the US Dollar outlook has deteriorated as curve steepening points to further depreciation risks. Fed uncertainty weighs on Dollar "The long-end of the US Treasury bond market sold off last night taking the US dollar weaker as well as Fed Chair Warsh spoke in detail for around 45mins but without providing any clear explanation as to why the FOMC decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged." "We see three explanations here : 1) This potential more laissez-faire approach from Warsh means a less active Fed that will therefore, increase risks of the Fed ending up behind the curve." "The 2s10s spread has had its biggest jump since August last year and we would argue the outcome of the Fed meeting is certainly US dollar negative." "The outlook ahead though is now less clear with greater uncertainty over the reaction function of the Federal Reserve." "Fed credibility is being questioned today and after a big jump in inflation expectations the US dollar outlook has certainly worsened."

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Banks

July 30, 2026

US Dollar: Hawkish hold tempers USD strength – ING

ING's Knightley and Turner highlight that a neutral‑hawkish Fed hold has slightly weakened the Dollar, reversing positioning that had shifted toward a rate hike. They argue EUR/USD is now likely to trade in a 1.14–1.15 range, with a more durable Dollar setback depending on sustained lower Oil prices and softer US jobs and inflation data that could undermine expectations for a September hike. Dollar softens after close Fed call "The FX market, perhaps more than any other class, had been shifting towards a hike today and keeping the dollar broadly bid. The decision itself has seen the dollar a little weaker, largely in line with what had been priced into the FX options market, and the dollar sold off a little more in the press conference." "Today’s events will be a disappointment for those who felt Kevin Warsh could have flexed his hawkish muscles and left the FX market back to trading US data and what volatile oil prices mean for monetary policy." "For FX, the reaction at the long-end of the bond market is partially reversing the narrative of a tough Fed assuaging concerns about the dollar de-basement trade. EUR/USD probably needs to trade more in a 1.14-15 range now, but a more sustainable rebound requires a sustained period of lower oil prices and US jobs and price data convincing the markets and the Fed that a September rate hike is no longer required." "This is especially so given Warsh’s strong pitch today that the message from the markets has become more direct – and the current message is that the Fed will hike in September." "Overall, today’s press conference can add to the sneaking suspicion that the Fed will talk tough but won’t hike and the market conviction over a September rate hike may well come under pressure."

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Banks

July 30, 2026

Federal Reserve: September hike risk stays elevated – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO strategists analyze the latest Federal Reserve decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. They highlight dissenting votes, Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on the 2% inflation target, and the Fed’s reliance on market signals. They expect rates to stay on hold in coming months but warn that high Oil prices could still trigger a September hike. Fed holds but keeps hike risk "The Fed decided to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. This was in line with our own expectations and those of the vast majority of economists. However, few would have seen the hold as a done deal." "The only take away, is that the FOMC remains more concerned about the inflation side of its dual mandate, rather than the full employment part. It noted that ‘job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little’ but that ‘inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal’. Against this background, it stressed its commitment to ‘deliver price stability’." "He [Warsh] stressed that the Fed did not have ‘a soft target’, it had a hard 2% target and the Fed would ‘not waiver’ in taking the right actions to achieve it. Part of this ‘hawkish’ communication might be designed to directly anchor inflation expectations, which the Fed Chair noted would partly also determine the inflation outlook." "It seems that the FOMC is taking the market signal to be – at least on the basis of recent data – that policy rates should eventually go higher. At the same time, higher rates were doing the Fed’s tightening job for it, which could be interpreted as making actual hikes less necessary." "Overall, the Fed clearly left the door for an interest rate hike in September wide open. However, a lot will depend on the data between now and then."

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Banks

July 30, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA sees inflation still above target – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter described Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) as slightly softer than expected, mainly due to fuel prices, but stressed inflation remains above the 2–3% band. She highlighted still-tight labor conditions and resilient employment, while weaker sentiment has yet to hit spending, leaving AUD positioned for improvement if policy follow-through materializes. CPI surprise but policy pressure "RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said Australia’s latest CPI data was “a touch softer” than expected, with the downside surprise in headline inflation mainly driven by lower fuel prices." "She said inflation remains above the 2-3% target band and the RBA must keep pressure on price growth so higher inflation expectations do not become entrenched. On the labor market, Hunter said conditions are still somewhat tight, though job growth has held up “not too badly” in the first half of the year." "She cautioned that monthly labor data are volatile, but underlying employment momentum remains resilient." "Hunter also noted that weaker consumer sentiment has not yet clearly fed through to household spending. AUD remains positioned for improvement, but policy follow-through is necessary."

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Markets

July 30, 2026

Tech Stocks Take a Breather After The Latest Round of Declines

European indices have opened Thursday’s session firmly in positive territory, continuing yesterday’s rebound despite tensions in the Middle East. Eurostoxx50 futures are up by over 1 per cent, the DAX is up by 0.50 per cent, the FTSE 100 by 0.99 per cent, whilst the Spanish IBEX (SPA35) and the Italian FTSE MIB are up by between 1.1 and 1.6 per cent Futures on Wall Street are also up – the US500 is up 0.78%, whilst the US100 tech index is up as much as 1.53% The main driver of the gains is a strong quarterly earnings season in Europe, which is overshadowing concerns about an escalation of the US-Iran conflict following fresh US air strikes on targets in Iran Sentiment is also being buoyed by better-than-expected German GDP figures for the second quarter (+0.2% q/q) and an upward revision of the first-quarter reading to 0.4%, which prompted Commerzbank to raise its growth forecast for Germany from 0.6% to 1.0% for this year Investors are also keeping a close eye on yesterday’s decision by the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged and today’s decision by the Bank of England, which, by a vote of 6 to 3, left rates at 3.75 per cent, although three MPC members voted in favour of a rate rise due to the inflationary risks arising from the conflict in the Middle East WTI crude is down by around 0.7–0.9 per cent and is trading at around $84–87 per barrel, despite the ongoing risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz The dollar remains stable, the USDIDX index is down slightly (-0.05 per cent), whilst the pound is rising following the BoE’s decision, trading at close to 1.34 against the dollar The luxury goods, industrial and financial sectors are performing best, thanks to strong results from companies such as Schneider Electric, Ferrari and BBVA, whilst consumer goods (Adidas) and the pharmaceuticals and automotive sectors (Sanofi, Stellantis) remain under pressure The technology sector is mixed – ASML and Infineon are rising, whilst SAP is falling. Company Information The key movements today are driven by second-quarter results, which are triggering widely varying reactions from investors across different sectors. Ferrari (RACE.IT) has raised its full-year forecasts following better-than-expected second-quarter results, raising its EBITDA target to at least €2.97 billion; its shares are up by more than 4 per cent Adidas is heading for a record one-day fall – its shares are down by nearly 18–20 per cent despite an upward revision to its full-year sales forecast, suggesting that investors are disappointed by other aspects of the results Sanofi has raised its full-year sales growth forecast to 10 per cent thanks to record sales of Dupixent (+38 per cent year-on-year to €5.15 billion), but its shares are down by around 4.8 per cent following the decision to discontinue the development of three experimental drugs and the lack of a ‘breakthrough’ strategy from new CEO Belen Garijo Stellantis (STLAM.IT) has disappointed with an EBIT figure below expectations, despite a 13 per cent rise in revenue, and its shares are falling by as much as 8 per cent in response to doubts about the pace of its recovery under CEO Antonio Filosa Schneider Electric leads the Eurostoxx50 index gainers with a rise of +8.12% following an upward revision to its annual forecast, whilst BBVA is rising after the Spanish bank raised its return on total equity (ROTE) targets for 2026, thanks to strong results in Mexico and South America British American Tobacco has raised its full-year earnings per share growth forecast to the mid-point of the 5–8 per cent range, thanks to rising demand for Velo nicotine pouches and strong results in the US, which offset a marked decline in sales in Asia; the group reported adjusted earnings per share of 164 pence for the first half of the year (+7.9% y/y), above the consensus estimate of 158.5 pence, whilst revenue from new categories (vaping, heated tobacco products, modern oral) accelerated to 18% growth in constant currencies; However, shares fell by as much as 3% at the open, despite the positive earnings surprise L'Oréal is up by almost 3 per cent following better-than-expected second-quarter sales, whilst LSEG is down despite narrowing its revenue forecast, as the new growth range remains below analysts’ expectations

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Earnings

July 30, 2026

Apple Preview: Strong iPhone Sales Versus Rising Memory Costs

Apple will report its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results today after the market closes. The market is approaching the report with high expectations. After a period in which investors questioned whether Apple could accelerate growth again, the company now has a chance to deliver one of its strongest sales quarters in some time. Consensus estimates point to revenue of nearly $109 billion, approximately 16% higher than a year earlier. The main growth driver is expected to be the iPhone, supported by a successful product cycle and customers’ growing willingness to replace older devices. At first glance, the outlook appears highly favorable. New models are attracting users, iPhone sales remain strong, the Services segment continues to grow, and Apple may even be gaining share in the global smartphone market. Beneath the surface, however, a problem is emerging that could dominate today’s earnings call. A global memory shortage is pushing up the prices of key components. Apple, which produces hundreds of millions of devices and uses enormous volumes of memory across iPhones, Macs, and iPads, cannot fully avoid the impact of rising costs. The company may therefore report very strong revenue while simultaneously facing pressure on margins. Today’s report will not only be a test of demand for the iPhone. It will also be a test of whether Apple can maintain high profitability in an environment of rising component costs. The key question is: will the strength of iPhone sales be sufficient to offset the pressure created by increasingly expensive memory? Key Financial Expectations Revenue: $108.85 billion Product revenue: $77.25 billion iPhone revenue: $53.60 billion Services revenue: $31.36 billion Mac revenue: $8.62 billion iPad revenue: $6.89 billion Americas revenue: $45.42 billion Europe revenue: $27.58 billion China revenue: $19.58 billion Japan revenue: $7.49 billion EPS: $1.89 Gross profit: $52.13 billion Operating expenses: $18.96 billion Research and development spending: $11.57 billion Cash and cash equivalents: $53.15 billion Estimated full-year CapEx: $12.33 billion The iPhone Is Set to Take Center Stage Again According to the Bloomberg consensus, Apple is expected to generate approximately $108.9 billion in revenue, compared with $94 billion a year earlier. This would represent growth of around 16% and confirm that the current product cycle is delivering very strong results for the company. The iPhone is expected to account for the largest share of that growth. Consensus estimates point to approximately $53.6 billion in smartphone revenue, once again demonstrating that despite the growing importance of Services and the broader Apple ecosystem, the iPhone remains the heart of the company’s business. New iPhone models may encourage users to replace older devices. For Apple, the upgrade cycle is enormously important. The company has hundreds of millions of active users, meaning that even a modest reduction in the average device replacement cycle can translate into billions of dollars in additional revenue. Strong sales of new models may also indicate that Apple is not only benefiting from its own product cycle but is beginning to take customers away from competitors. Potential market-share gains could therefore be one of the most important positive elements of the report. The smartphone market is already mature, so higher sales volumes are not driven solely by expanding demand across the industry. Increasingly, they mean gaining market share at the expense of other manufacturers. If Apple demonstrates that it is growing sales while simultaneously strengthening its market position, investors may view the current product cycle as significantly stronger than previously expected. Apple May Grow Faster Without Raising Prices One reason Apple may be gaining market share is its decision to maintain smartphone prices despite rising component costs. Such a strategy supports demand and allows the company to remain competitive, particularly in the premium segment. Apple may therefore attract customers who are considering devices from other manufacturers. On the other hand, every decision not to pass higher costs on to consumers creates greater pressure on profitability. Apple therefore faces a classic dilemma. It can raise prices and partially protect margins, but risk weakening demand. Alternatively, it can maintain prices, increase sales, and gain market share, while absorbing a larger portion of rising costs. For now, the market appears to assume that Apple is choosing the second scenario. If the company can increase sales without a meaningful deterioration in margins, it may demonstrate very high-quality growth. If, however, market-share gains come at the cost of a clear decline in profitability, investors may assess the strength of the current cycle differently. Services Remain the Quiet Pillar of Earnings While the iPhone attracts the most attention, the Services segment continues to strengthen Apple’s financial foundations. Consensus estimates point to Services revenue of approximately $31.4 billion. The segment, which includes the App Store, subscriptions, digital services, and payments, has become one of the company’s most important sources of stable growth. Services also have strategic importance for profitability. The services business generates higher margins than hardware sales, meaning that a growing share of Services in the revenue mix may partially cushion cost pressure associated with device production. This is where a natural balance may emerge. The iPhone provides scale and drives revenue growth, while Services help maintain the high profitability of the broader ecosystem. If both segments exceed expectations, Apple may demonstrate not only rapid growth but also strong growth quality. If Services momentum weakens, however, the market may focus much more heavily on rising memory costs. The Memory Shortage Is Becoming a Test of Margins The biggest challenge for Apple may currently be the situation in the memory market. The global race to develop artificial intelligence is increasing demand for advanced chips used in data centers and computing systems. Demand from AI infrastructure providers is growing rapidly, while limited supply is pushing memory prices higher. For Apple, the issue is particularly important because of the scale of its operations. The company requires enormous volumes of memory to manufacture iPhones, Macs, iPads, and its other devices. Even a small increase in the cost of an individual component can translate into billions of dollars in additional expenses at Apple’s scale. Apple has already raised the prices of certain products, citing rising memory costs. Investors will nevertheless want to know whether the measures taken so far will be sufficient to limit the impact of more expensive components on profitability. According to conservative estimates, higher memory costs could materially reduce Apple’s gross margin. This means that today’s report may be a test not only of sales but, above all, of Apple’s ability to protect margins. The market will analyze whether cost pressure will bottom out as early as this quarter or persist for longer and continue weighing on results in future periods. This is precisely why the company’s margin outlook may prove more important than simply beating the revenue consensus. Chinese Memory Could Solve One Problem and Create Another Apple is reportedly considering sourcing memory from Chinese manufacturers, including CXMT and YMTC. From a business perspective, such a move would be understandable. Diversifying its supplier base could increase component availability, reduce the risk of shortages, and improve Apple’s negotiating position with existing suppliers. At a time when memory prices are rising and availability remains limited, every additional supplier could have strategic importance. At the same time, the potential use of Chinese chips has drawn opposition from some U.S. senators. Concerns have emerged regarding national security, technology transfers, and the risk that one of America’s most important companies could become dependent on entities linked to China. Apple could therefore find itself caught between the need to secure its supply chain and growing political pressure. It is worth emphasizing that there is currently no confirmation that Chinese memory will be used in Apple devices. The reports concern discussions and the potential sourcing of components. If the issue is raised during the earnings call, investors will be looking for answers as to whether Apple is genuinely planning to expand its supplier base and how it intends to limit the impact of the memory shortage on costs. Margins May Determine the Market Reaction Apple may report very strong revenue growth. Robust iPhone sales, growing Services revenue, and potential market-share gains create a highly favorable picture. The market reaction, however, will depend on how much of that growth remains in the company’s financial results after accounting for rising component costs. The key factors will therefore be: the level of gross margin, the margin outlook for the next quarter, the impact of higher memory prices, the company’s ability to pass costs on to customers, the growth rate of the Services segment, the scale of iPhone sales, information regarding market share, commentary on the security and resilience of memory supplies. This quarter, revenue alone may not be sufficient to assess the quality of Apple’s results conclusively. The company may increase sales and gain market share while simultaneously paying more and more for components. The market will therefore try to determine whether growth remains profitable and sustainable. Three Possible Scenarios The bullish scenario assumes a clear beat of consensus expectations, very strong iPhone sales, continued growth in Services, and a stable margin outlook. An additional positive signal would be confirmation that Apple is gaining share in the global smartphone market. In that case, rising memory costs could be viewed as a temporary problem that the company can manage thanks to its scale, brand strength, and the high profitability of its services business. The neutral scenario assumes results broadly in line with expectations, strong iPhone sales, but a cautious margin outlook. Such a report would confirm the strength of demand while also showing that rising component costs are beginning to limit the quality of growth. The bearish scenario includes weaker iPhone sales, clear pressure on margins, and a deterioration in guidance due to high memory prices. Such a combination could increase concerns that the current product cycle is not strong enough to offset rising costs. Apple Faces a Test of Growth Quality Apple enters its earnings release with very high expectations. The iPhone is expected to drive sales, Services to support profitability, and the current product cycle may allow the company to gain market share. At the same time, the memory shortage is creating a new risk that could affect production costs and constrain margins. Today’s report will answer several key questions: Will iPhone sales exceed expectations? Is Apple gaining share in the global smartphone market? Are customers replacing their devices faster than before? How quickly is the Services segment growing? What impact are higher memory prices having on margins? Will Apple continue to raise product prices? How long could cost pressure persist? Will the company further diversify its sources of memory supply? Apple may report very strong revenue growth today. To convince the market, however, it will have to demonstrate that growth remains profitable despite rising component costs. Key Takeaways Apple enters its earnings release with expected revenue of approximately $108.9 billion. The iPhone is expected to be the main growth driver, supported by a strong product cycle and customers’ growing willingness to replace their devices. Strong sales may allow Apple not only to increase revenue but also to gain share in the global smartphone market. The Services segment remains the second pillar of the company’s results. Its high profitability may partially offset rising device-production costs. The biggest risk, however, remains the memory shortage. Rising component prices may weigh on margins, meaning that the company’s profitability outlook for the coming quarters could be more important than simply beating the revenue consensus. Apple is also considering expanding its sources of memory supply, including the possibility of sourcing components from Chinese manufacturers. Such a move could reduce the risk of shortages but would also increase political, regulatory, and strategic risks. Today’s results will therefore be a test of more than just demand for the iPhone. Above all, they will be a test of growth quality — whether Apple can increase sales, gain market share, and at the same time protect its high profitability in an environment of rising memory costs. Source: xStation5

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Energies

July 30, 2026

Further escalation and tense situation do not drive oil further

The oil market is experiencing extreme volatility as a result of the armed conflict between the US and Iran. Although physical supplies are facing drastic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, global refineries are recording record margins, and the market is actively analyzing every signal that could indicate an impending de-escalation or further spread of the conflict. Escalation between the US and Iran The current situation in the Middle East remains very tense, following the return to mutual attacks by the United States and Iran. The United States has decided to return to shelling Iranian positions, which was a direct response to the attack on an American military base. President Donald Trump publicly announced firm and "very strong" strikes on Wednesday evening, which sharply increased the risk premium on the commodity market and dampened the positive sentiment that had prevailed on the stock market following Kevin Warsh's conference. It is worth noting that following the recent de-escalation, which lowered WTI oil prices from approximately 93 USD to 80 USD, we are currently observing a retracement of the downward move by roughly half. WTI oil is testing a key resistance level around 85 USD and the 50.0 retracement of the entire upward wave from the start of the conflict. The crude oil price has retraced half of the recent downward wave following sharp announcements from Donald Trump. Source: xStation5 Crude oil largely copies the volatility of the 90s. If history were to repeat itself, we should expect a clear decline in the near future, but this would, of course, require a total de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Ship flow: Hormuz and alternative routes The Strait of Hormuz remains absolutely crucial for the global situation on the oil market, although strong increases in recent weeks were also linked to Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandab Strait. Despite strong restrictions, it is currently estimated that up to 13 million barrels of oil may be flowing from the Persian Gulf, which, given the clear reduction in global demand (so-called demand destruction), clearly limits the deficit. Despite the theoretical closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the number of commercial ships passing through this location has clearly rebounded and is the highest since mid-July, when a clear escalation of the situation occurred. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB The global deficit could have fallen to as low as 2 million barrels per day, although at its peak it could have been as high as 7-8 million barrels per day. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Refining boom and inventory drainage The geopolitical earthquake has an asymmetric, but very deep, impact on the oil economy. The lack of free flow of cheap oil led to a surge in prices of finished fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) well above the valuation of the raw material itself, which triggered a historical boom in the refining sector. The crack spread in the US remains at record high levels. Oil processing in China has also increased significantly, which may indicate a desire to take advantage of the high fuel price situation. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Crude oil processing in Chinese state-owned refineries has increased significantly and is around the 5-year average. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Processing in private refineries is also rebounding, although it remains close to a 5-year low. It is worth remembering that private refineries in China largely process oil from sanctioned sources, including Iran. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Global refining giants are working at maximum capacity. For example, Shell reported refinery utilization at an unprecedented level of 102% (100% capacity is only a value on paper, but in reality, processing may be higher than what would result from the declared values), and jet fuel production jumped by 20% year-on-year. Thanks to record-high margins (crack spreads), profits from trading and refining have skyrocketed. However, increased refinery activity and massive raw material processing have led to a rapid drainage of commercial oil inventories in the US, which have fallen to levels described by experts as "dangerously low." Economic costs for producers and price prospects While traders and refineries are recording above-average profits, producers themselves are feeling the painful effects of the war. The Saudi Arabian economy recorded a 4.8% year-on-year drop in GDP in the second quarter, which is the worst result since the pandemic in 2020. The direct cause is the collapse in the Saudi oil sector, which shrank by nearly 25%. Raw material extraction remains well below pre-war norms, and immobilized infrastructure (including in Qatar, which affected Shell's LNG production) limits supply. Production in Saudi Arabia fell to levels below the pandemic bottom and even after the recent rebound remains extremely low. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Prices on the markets are still characterized by high volatility. Brent crude prices are oscillating around 88 USD, while American WTI oil is valued at approximately 84-85 USD. The price today remains under pressure, even despite the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Interestingly, from the perspective of the 1-year and 5-year average, the price does not seem to be extremely overbought at the moment, although it remains above these averages. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

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Markets

July 30, 2026

Wheat Rises By Over 3%

Wheat prices climbed more than 3% to above $6.80 per bushel, approaching the two-year high of over $7 reached on July 22, as intensifying hostilities between Russia and Ukraine heightened concerns over grain exports from two of the world's largest wheat producers. The conflict has increasingly disrupted shipping activity in the Black Sea, prompting consultancy SovEcon to lower its Russian wheat export forecast for the current marketing season by around 4%. Russian authorities are also considering equipping grain vessels with machine guns and mobile missile systems to defend against Ukrainian drone strikes. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to face Russian attacks on ships, ports, and other Black Sea infrastructure, with local farm groups warning of widespread bankruptcies if maritime exports remain suspended. These disruptions coincide with the regional harvest, threatening peak-season shipments and encouraging importers to source wheat elsewhere.

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Banks

July 30, 2026

Euro: Fed split supports EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s FX Research team, including Charlie Lay and colleagues, notes that the Dollar Index fell and EUR/USD climbed after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but revealed a significant internal split. The softer Dollar tone, combined with market pricing for a possible September hike and higher long-end US yields, helped EUR/USD extend gains, reflecting shifting expectations for US monetary policy. Euro benefits from softer Dollar "The main theme overnight was the Fed's surprisingly divided decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The FOMC kept the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% for the seventh consecutive meeting, but three officials dissented in favour of a 25bp hike, highlighting a growing concern over persistent inflation." "Markets interpreted the decision as less hawkish than the dissents suggested, pushing the US 2Y Treasury yield and the USD lower. However, longer-dated yields rose sharply as investors judged the Fed's response insufficient to contain persistent inflation." "The Fed funds futures are pricing in 63% probability of a 25bp hike in September. They have pared back the total hike for this year to 33bp compared to 42bp on Tuesday." "For today, we get personal income, personal spending, PCE inflation, initial jobless claims, and the advance estimate for Q2 GDP. The market consensus is at 2% qoq annualized vs 2.1% in Q1. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is at 1.6% as of 27 July 2026." "The Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 100.89 and EUR/USD gained 80 pips to 1.1470."

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Banks

July 30, 2026

US Dollar: Real yields drive correction risk – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that US real yields and the US Dollar (USD) fell after a confusing FOMC press conference, as markets sensed the Federal Reserve (Fed) may avoid further tightening. He highlights upcoming United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data as key drivers, warning that downside surprises could weigh on the Dollar and that US Dollar Index (DXY) may correct toward 100.50 ahead of the September FOMC. Fed messaging and data steer Dollar "Last night's FOMC press conference was a little confusing. Looking at the market's reaction, the conclusion was that the Fed was not going to be as tough on fighting inflation as initially thought and might try to wriggle through this period of high inflation without hiking." "Chair Kevin Warsh's celebration of higher real yields and the more 'direct' message from the markets was taken as a view that the Fed had outsourced monetary tightening to the markets, reducing the need for hikes." "Having risen 60bp since the June FOMC meeting, two US real yields fell 7bp yesterday and undermined the dollar. Presumably, we will not receive much of a steer from the Fed before its September meeting, and it will be the data which determines whether the Fed will hike." "DXY probably risks a correction back to the 100.50 area and the two sets of CPI prints and jobs data before the 16 September FOMC meeting will determine whether DXY has topped for the year." "For today, the focus will be on the first look at 2Q GDP data (expected at 2.0% QoQ annualised) and the core PCE inflation data for June. The latter is expected to have slowed a little, with core PCE at 0.2% month-on-month and the year-on-year rate dropping to 3.3% from 3.4%. Any downside surprises here could hit the dollar given the emerging view that the Fed is trying to avoid tightening."

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Banks

July 30, 2026

Equities: Fed-driven yield spike pressures equities – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank notes that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) on-hold decision and limited detail from Chair Warsh sparked a sharp steepening in the Treasury curve, pushing the 30-year yield to 5.20% and weighing on equities. The S&P 500 suffered its worst day in seven weeks, while tech weakness dragged the NASDAQ 100 into correction territory. Asian and European equity performance is mixed. Fed decision and yields hit stocks "Last night’s on-hold Fed decision combined with a relative lack of detail from Chair Warsh triggered a sharp steepening in the Treasury curve, with the 30yr yield (+11.2bps) reaching a post-2007 high of 5.20% while a late sell-off left the S&P 500 (-1.52%) posting its worst day in seven weeks." "This rise in yields ended up weighing on equities after some big intra-day swings. The S&P 500 went from trading more than half a percent down pre-FOMC to higher on the day during Warsh’s press conference but then saw a sharp drop in the final hour of trading to close -1.52% lower." "Equities were also weighed down by another rout in chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index slumping by -5.33%. The tech declines also brought the NASDAQ 100 (-2.06%) into technical correction territory with the index now down -11.3% from its early June peak." "European equities were mostly weaker, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.29%), CAC (-0.60%) and FTSEMIB (-0.49%) all lower, though the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced (+0.34%)." "However, the equity mood is mixed across Asia this morning. The Nikkei (+0.75%) is recovering after declines over the previous two sessions, but the KOSPI (-1.30%) is moving lower following on yesterday’s steep -5.98% decline. Korea’s index had climbed as much as +5.50% early in today’s session before giving up the gains, with index heavyweight Samsung down about -2% after its Q2 earnings, which included a more than 250-fold year-on-year rise in semiconductor profits."

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Markets

July 30, 2026

Chalk and Cheese – Meta and Microsoft earnings round up

Microsoft and Meta both reported results after the US closing bell, however, the reaction to these results could not have been any different. While Meta’s stock price is falling by 10%, Microsoft is up by 2%. This means that Meta’s share price is down 11% YTD and is underwater to the tune of 18% in the past year. Below, we delve into the details about why Meta’s latest quarterly numbers have failed to woo the market. Meta fails to impress investors, and the stock price slumps Although Meta’s revenues were stronger than forecast at $60.8bn vs. $60.17bn expected, earnings per share were significantly lower than expected at $6.18, vs. expectations of $7.22. Revenue forecasts were also weaker than forecast, with the company expecting sales to come in at $62.5bn for this quarter, below estimates of $63.15bn. There were two numbers that investors were closely watching in this earnings report. The first was capex. Meta did not increase its top end forecast for capex this year, however, it did lift the lower end of the forecast. Capex spend is now expected to come in at $130bn - $145bn, up from $125bn - $140bn. The company is burning through its cash pile to afford AI investments. Free cash flow dropped below $1bn to $784mn last quarter, declining more than 90% from $8.55bn a year earlier. Total costs rose to $42.03bn for last quarter, up a whopping 55% in a year. More than $1bn of costs were linked to severance pay after the company announced a wave of layoffs. Investors also wanted to know how Meta is monetizing its AI spend. The results did not deliver good news. Meta reported that its Reality Labs division, which produces the virtual reality headsets and its wearable AI tech, had lost $4.6bn last quarter on sales of $431mn. On paper, this looks unsustainable. Meta’s cash burn rate also looks unsustainable, especially since recent announcements that data centres in Alberta and Louisiana would cost nearly $60bn to build. It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Meta’s share price, which has traded lower for ten consecutive days, its longest losing streak in its history. Although severance costs are only temporary and we could see profitability bounce back in Q3, we think that the sharp selloff in the Meta share price in the post-market is down to the astonishing burn rate of free cash flow. Mark Zuckerburg said on the earnings call that the company is selling its compute at a premium compared to its cost, however, this leaves more questions for investors – why did Meta buy it in the first place? Is Meta now a compute hire shop? Added to this, Zuckerberg also said that Meta was working on building personal AI agents for individuals and for businesses. Right now, the evidence is not there that this is paying off, and Meta’s share price is getting punished for it. Microsoft deep dive: can it maintain the stock market gain during the wider sell off? Microsoft’s earnings data has been more warmly received. It reported revenues that were higher than forecast at $90.01bn, and earnings per share of $4.74. It also reported a $3.2bn return on its investment in Anthropic, and lower than expected costs associated with its early retirement programme, which helped to preserve profitability last quarter. Microsoft is a full stack AI provider, which means that it has a problem allocating chips between its Azure cloud business and its AI research applications like Copilot assistant. It also needs to spend a fortune to continue to develop its AI product suite, and it reported capex spend for last quarter of $41bn up more than 60% in a year. Although free cash flow fell 23% compared to last year, it is still at $19.64bn, which is a more comfortable number for the market to digest compared to Meta’s. Azure cloud revenue rose above $100bn for the fiscal year 2026, for the first time ever, which means it is now bigger than Google Cloud; this has also been cheered by the market. Azure generated revenues of $40b

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Markets

July 30, 2026

Copper Rises After Fed Keeps Rates Steady

Copper futures climbed to around $6.33 per pound on Thursday, recovering from the previous session’s losses as investors welcomed the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, easing concerns about the demand outlook for industrial metals. However, three FOMC members dissented in favor of a rate hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that the decision to keep rates steady should not be viewed as a sign of policy inertia. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to updates from the Politburo meeting in top consumer China, where policymakers are widely expected to refrain from announcing major new stimulus measures and instead focus on implementing existing fiscal policies to support the slowing economy. Elsewhere, the red metal continued to draw support from its favorable long-term demand outlook, driven by the global shift toward clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers.

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Markets

July 30, 2026

XAG/USD remains below $58.00 amid Fed hawkish pause

Silver loses ground as three FOMC policy members dissented in favor of a Fed rate hike. The Fed kept interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% despite rising inflation pressures from Middle East conflicts. President Trump pledged a strong military response after Iran launched a missile attack targeting US forces in Jordan. Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $57.90 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, Silver prices gained following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy decision, supported by expectations that other major central banks will follow a similar path. During its July meeting, the Fed opted to leave rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range despite growing inflationary pressures tied to renewed conflict in the Middle East. This decision provided underlying support to Silver, as elevated borrowing costs typically dampen demand for non-yielding assets. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this week while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation. Despite the status quo, internal disagreement was evident within the Federal Open Market Committee. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed Chief Neel Kashkari all dissented, advocating instead for a 25-basis-point rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced a firm tone, noting that while the central bank will refrain from offering explicit forward guidance on future rate adjustments, it remains committed to using all necessary tools to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed Monetary Policy Statement scores 7.4/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, a clear hawkish tilt relative to the historical average of 4.9/10. By holding the key overnight rate at 3.50%-3.75% while stressing elevated inflation, solid economic activity, and strong productivity and investment, the Fed signals confidence in growth and a firm commitment to price stability. The 9-3 split vote, with three presidents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores latent tightening bias that is supportive of the Dollar on a medium-term horizon. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 128.64, confirming that the overall policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests the Fed continues to lean toward restrictive policy, a backdrop that should keep Dollar dips relatively shallow against the Euro and Yen. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence global markets. President Donald Trump pledged a decisive response following a recent attack on US forces in Jordan. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled as both sides struggle to reach a compromise, largely due to Tehran’s insistence on retaining control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

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Markets

July 30, 2026

$4,100: Gold fails near a key hurdle as Mideast tensions and Fed hike bets support USD

Gold struggles to find acceptance above $4,100 amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. Escalating US-Iran tensions and Fed hike bets support the USD, capping the commodity. The bearish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Gold (XAU/USD) attracts buyers for the second straight day, though it remains confined within the previous day's range and trades below the $4,100 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction following the previous day's post-FOMC fall and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity. Inflation concerns stemming from escalating US-Iran tensions keep US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets firmly on the table, which, in turn, is seen supporting the USD and capping the non-yielding bullion. As was widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. The central bank, however, refrained from adopting a more aggressive stance on monetary policy, which weighed heavily on the USD and lifted the Gold price to the weekly high. That said, the on-hold decision drew three dissents who preferred a 25-basis-point rate hike. Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year amid rapidly shifting inflationary dynamics due to volatile oil prices. According to TD Securities, “precious metals have remained weak in the face of hawkish market pricing for the Fed,” with renewed strength in energy markets expected to “continue to feed into this narrative.” The firm notes that this combination of tighter policy expectations and rising energy prices is keeping gold and the broader precious metals complex on the back foot, reinforcing the current downside bias. The dominant factor driving crude prices is the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, including tensions surrounding crucial shipping chokepoints – the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. In fact, the US launched strikes against Iran in response to surprise Iranian missile attacks on American forces based in the Middle East on Tuesday. Adding to this, joint US-Saudi strikes against Iran-aligned terrorists in Iraq raise the risk of a broader regional conflict. Moreover, reports suggest that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the southern Red Sea. This comes on top of the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, which added to concerns about significant disruptions to global energy supplies and led to the overnight sharp rise in crude oil prices. The latest developments fuel worries about energy-driven inflation and back the case for policy tightening by the Fed. Traders now look forward to important US macro releases – the Advance Q2 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The crucial data will be looked at for cues about the Fed's policy path, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the Gold price. XAU/USD daily chart Technical Analysis: Gold remains confined in a familiar range; bearish potential intact From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past month or so might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a breakdown below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This suggests that the path of least resistance for Gold remains to the downside despite the recent rebound from sub-$4,000 levels. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator turns positive, hinting at improving short-term momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 stays below the midline, reinforcing a capped tone rather than a sustained bullish reversal. Hence, any move up might confront a hurdle near the top end of the range, ahead of $4,200. A sustained move above should pave the way for additional gains to the 200-day SMA at $4,490.80, which is the key barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to revive a durable upside trend. On the downside, immediate support is seen at recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 area, where buyers previously emerged. As long as XAU/USD trades under the 200-day SMA pivotal resistance, any recovery is likely to be treated as corrective within a broader consolidative-to-bearish framework.

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Energies

July 30, 2026

WTI falls below $83.00 despite hostilities in the Middle East

WTI price tumbles to $82.80 in Thursday’s early Asian session.  Fears of wider conflict in the Middle East and concerns over oil supply disruption could lift the WTI price.  US crude oil inventories fell by 7.167 million barrels last week, EIA said.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.80 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. WTI falls amid some profit-taking despite escalating conflicts in the Middle East.  Traders book some profits following the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. The US central bank decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its July policy meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said during the press conference that while the Fed won’t provide hints on where rate policy is heading, it will take necessary steps to meet its 2% inflation target. However, renewed military escalation in the Middle East could raise concerns over crude flows from the region and boost the WTI price. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US would strike back at Iran after a recent attack that targeted a military base in Jordan.  The Iranian military fired ballistic missiles overnight at a US airbase and command center in Jordan, all of them intercepted, per Bloomberg. The US and Saudi Arabia also struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, ending a days-long pause in hostilities.  Meanwhile, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels are also tightening pressure on Red Sea oil flows. Reuters reported that the Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb gateway, which links the southern Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.   US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending July 24 dropped by 7.167 million barrels, compared to a rise of 2.011 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a decline of 2.5 million barrels. (This story was corrected on July 30 at 01:35 GMT to say that the US central bank decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its July policy meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected, not Thursday.) Brent slides as US extends pause on Iran strikes Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights that active Brent crude futures “fell by almost 5% yesterday as the US extended its pause on striking Iran.” He notes that Donald Trump framed the decision as an opportunity to give diplomacy another chance, indicating that the lull was underway to allow “very deep talks” with Iran, but stressing that his patience was limited, saying “either it goes fast or not at all.”

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Markets

July 30, 2026

Corn Falls from Multi-Week Highs

Corn futures fell below $4.5 per bushel, easing from a recent nine-week high reached on July 24 as favorable weather forecasts across the US Midwest eased concerns over production risks. Forecasts call for ample rainfall and milder temperatures near the end of the week, improving yield prospects after recent heat concerns. The favorable outlook reinforced expectations for another large US harvest, weighing on prices. Still, losses were limited by firm ethanol demand as elevated crude oil prices amid the Middle East conflict continued to support biofuel production. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions also underpinned grain markets, with attacks on Black Sea ports and grain infrastructure threatening export flows. Meanwhile, the longer-term outlook remained supported by a tighter global corn balance, with the USDA projecting world corn consumption to exceed production for a second straight season, leaving the market more vulnerable to weather disruptions and export disruptions.

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Markets

July 29, 2026

Gold tests $4000 ahead of the Fed decision

Today at 20:00 CET, the Fed will make a decision on interest rates. We are facing one of the most intriguing and uncertain Federal Reserve meetings. Markets are pricing in a roughly 36% chance of an interest rate hike at today's meeting, however, the situation within the Committee and the macroeconomic and political backdrop mean that today's decision and the accompanying press conference could trigger significant moves in financial markets. Of course, in line with market consensus, the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, but the tone of the conference itself could significantly impact the dollar, yields, and consequently, gold and US indices. What can we expect from today's event? Key points to consider The pricing of today's move in terms of size is low, as it stands at just over 1/3, but at the same time it remains relatively high, which is linked to a lack of proper communication from American bankers, primarily Kevin Warsh. Kevin Warsh avoids declarations, limits communication, and is waiting for autumn data revisions and reports from his working groups, which we will likely see only at the end of this year, when the market is 100% certain of a hike (or even nearly 2). The monetary policy transmission mechanism and the political calendar (midterms) suggest that a hike may take place at a later time. The biggest "black swan" remains the return of commodity inflation. Oil was trading for a moment at 100 USD per barrel, and fuel prices in the US were above 4 USD per gallon. Despite the recent drop in inflation to 3.5%, price pressure may return to the US economy. Market pricing vs. analyst consensus Analyzing the expected interest rate curve, based on futures contracts, one can see a clear rise in hawkish expectations over the last month. While four weeks ago the market assigned negligible probability to any move in July, currently, mainly due to the rise in oil prices, the probability of a hike has risen to 36%. The long-term path looks even more interesting. For September 2026, markets are fully pricing in at least one hike (+1.05), for December they are approaching two (+1.74), and in April 2027 they are pricing in more than two full hikes (+2.18). This testifies to the market's growing fears of an outbreak of a "second wave" of inflation. Expected curve for upcoming Fed meetings. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB From an economic consensus perspective, the Fed should decide to maintain the status quo. On the other hand, with over 100 votes in the Bloomberg consensus, two indicate an interest rate hike. Within the FOMC itself, we might encounter two strong hawkish votes, mainly from members who are not permanent voters on the Committee (e.g., Beth Hammack (Cleveland) and Lorie Logan (Dallas)). Although the dot-chart presented by the Fed indicated the possibility of a hike this year, at the same time half of the FOMC members see rates remaining unchanged or even cuts. On the other hand, Warsh himself indicates that the dot-chart tool is a bad idea for presenting monetary policy actions. Pricing for the Fed rate at the end of this year. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB 2. The Warsh Riddle: hawkish rhetoric, dovish actions The biggest unknown of today's meeting is the attitude of the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Since taking office, Warsh has significantly reduced communication with the market, assuming that press conferences only make sense when the central bank has significant decisions or systemic changes to convey. Warsh himself claims that he talks a lot about the need for a "real fight against inflation," however, in practice, his actions are very restrained. This raises concerns among some investors that the Fed is simply "doing nothing." Warsh has adopted a methodical, almost corporate approach. He has appointed five special working groups to investigate the nature of current inflation dynamics, whose final reports are expected only at the end of the year. Additionally, the new Fed chief is clearly waiting for the great annual revision of core PCE inflation data, scheduled for September. Speaking before Congress, he argued that, for example, demand impulses resulting from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom drive price growth in the initial phase, but in the medium and long term, productivity growth generated by AI is expected to be disinflationary. One should also consider the very fact of today's press conference. Although some see this as a sign of an unexpected hike (as a final show of strength and establishing credibility in the fight against inflation), it is much more likely that Warsh will present a new framework for institutional Fed communication, revise the format of market uncertainty communications, or share preliminary guidelines from the working groups. It is worth remembering that this will be Warsh's second conference, and if he has nothing to convey, it might be significantly shorter than the last time. 3. Political Stalemate: Midterm elections and monetary policy transmission. It is difficult to write about Federal Reserve decisions in an election year, ignoring the political context. Regardless of the officially declared apolitical nature of the Fed, before the upcoming US Congressional elections in November (midterm elections), the central bank is extremely cautious about generating shocks to the economy. Fed research clearly indicates that the real economy needs up to half a year to feel the full effect of higher interest rates, and their change is felt in the short term mainly through financial markets and loans. Consequently, the impact on inflation itself is heavily delayed. What does this mean in practice for the July meeting? A potential hike today would start to really choke the economy and hit the labor market exactly at the turn of October and November – that is, at the hottest moment of the election campaign. At the same time, by that moment, inflation would likely not have drastically decreased as a result of this move. Risking a "hard landing" right before the ballot box is a scenario that no Fed chair, even the most hawkish, wants on their record without absolute necessity. 4. Oil is still dealing the cards Ignoring all the aspects being considered, ultimately almost everything will depend on crude oil, which remains the main engine of inflation. The recent very strong rise in crude oil prices to levels around 100 USD per barrel and fuel prices reaching 4 USD per gallon at US gas stations is an alarm signal for central bankers. Fuel in the US, priced above 4 USD, acts as a consumption tax imposed on citizens, while simultaneously immediately translating into logistics and production costs in almost every sector of the economy. A supply shock of this type can destroy within a few weeks the downward inflation trend, including core inflation, that has been painstakingly built over recent quarters. Although Kevin Warsh repeats that monetary policy should not react to one-off supply spikes, history shows that the long-term stay of oil around one hundred dollars immediately spills over into core inflation measures. If the oil shock lasts until autumn, the arguments about waiting for "final working group reports" will cease to be credible to the market. If the markets are right (looking at the pricing of more than 2 hikes by April 2027), then the July suspension of action will be just the calm before the storm, and aggressive tightening will begin from September or November. On the other hand, if the situation in the Middle East is quickly brought under control, and gas and grain prices fall due to El Nino, there is a chance that inflation will be transitory (although Powell indicated something similar during the initial phase of inflation growth after 2021). 5. Conclusions All signs point to the fact that today the Fed will leave rates unchanged, accepting the fact that the short-term benefits for the credibility of the "hawkish" Warsh are smaller than the risk of unnecessarily freezing a still unstable labor market (and the risk of hitting the election period). Investors' eyes will be turned to the tone of today's conference. If Warsh continues to evolve towards a "sage who studies the market" instead of an activist, and oil stays above 90-100 USD, strong concerns about a central bank policy error may appear in the market, which in the long run will weigh on the rise in bond yields and the strengthening of the dollar. 6. How gold might react Gold is clearly losing before today's decision, although the EURUSD pair remains stable below the 1.14 level. The main motive for the drop in gold prices today is the rebound in crude oil prices following the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Gold remains at the point of key support, which without a clear change of words from Warsh should be maintained. It is hard to expect a dovish tone from Warsh, who has not yet done anything to get rid of inflation. If, however, he communicates that the Fed is ready to raise rates or at least limit the balance sheet, then a situation might arise where gold falls below 4000 USD. If the market starts to price in more than two hikes by the middle of next year, gold could fall even to the 3700-3800 range. Gold remains above 4000 USD, but at the same time below the 25-session average. Source: xStation5 Gold is currently well-valued relative to the expected interest rate, which is why potential changes in expectations could have huge significance for the perspectives of gold in the short term. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

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Energies

July 29, 2026

WTI rebounds sharply on fears of renewed escalation in US-Iran war

The Oil price recovers strongly to near $83.20 on Wednesday due to multiple tailwinds. Houthis mull fees on ships using the Southern Red Sea route. US-Saudi joint military operation against Iran-aligned Houthis helped Oil prices snap a three-day losing streak. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX trades 6% higher on the day, slightly above $83.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Oil price bounces back strongly after snapping a three-day losing streak amid fears of a prolonged energy supply squeeze due to Iran’s intentions to bring a toll system into effect at various chokepoints around the Middle East. During the day, a report from Reuters showed that Yemen's Houthis are considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the Southern Red Sea. Houthis are mulling a toll system on Bab el-Mandeb Strait, gateway to almost 7% of the global oil supply, which was hijacked by them last week. With Iran being prevented from imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of the global energy supply, by the United States (US) and other Middle East nations, Houthis' move to implement a toll system on another key shipping route could result in a fresh escalation in military aggression between both nations. Such a scenario would increase fears of prolonged energy supply disruption. The Oil price was already opened significantly higher as the joint military operation by Saudi Arabia and US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Iran-aligned Houthis in Iraq in retaliation for attacks on Saudi energy facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions, Al Jazeera reported. Analysts at Rabobank said in a note, "The Saudi-US retaliation for strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure underscored how the evolving cycle of attacks and counterattacks is keeping a firm bid under crude benchmarks."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Singapore Dollar: Range guidance around NEER band – UOB

UOB’s SGD NEER model shows the index at 1.68% above the midpoint of the policy band, after ending the previous session 171 basis points above it. The model is expected to remain between 1.40% and 1.90% above the midpoint today, implying a USD/SGD trading range of 1.2898–1.2963. With the S$NEER near the upper end of the policy band and MAS maintaining a mildly restrictive stance, the likelihood of FX intervention to curb excessive SGD strength may increase. SGD NEER guides intraday band "Meanwhile, the S$NEER index in our model fell by more than 10 bps, ending the session 171 bps above the midpoint of the policy band." "This morning, our SGD NEER model is at 1.68% from the mid-point and it is likely to remain between 1.40% and 1.90% above the mid-point for today's session." "This implies a USD/SGD range of between 1.2898 and 1.2963." "With the S$NEER trading closer to the upper end of the policy band and the MAS policy stance likely remaining mildly restrictive following the cumulative tightening moves in Apr 2026 and Jul 2026 (current estimated slope: 1.25% p.a.), the likelihood of FX intervention to curb excessive S$NEER strength could rise, thereby helping to keep domestic liquidity conditions relatively ample."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Copper: Speculative longs rise on tight supply – ING

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that speculative net long positions in LME Copper increased notably in the latest COTR data, supported by tight supply and low inventories. They note broader sentiment has improved, while positioning changes in Aluminium and Zinc were more modest, with only small increases in net long exposure among money managers. LME positioning reflects tighter fundamentals "The latest COTR report shows that the speculative net long position in LME copper increased by 12,668 lots to 60,771 lots in the week ending 24 July." "The move was driven by increased participation from both long and short positions." "Positioning changes in other base metals were more modest, with money managers increasing their net long in LME aluminium by just 96 lots to 59,264 lots, while the net long in zinc increased by 4,107 lots to 39,736 lots." "Tight supply conditions and low inventories lifted broader market sentiment."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Oil: Middle East tensions revive inflation channel – BNY

BNY reports that renewed Iranian–U.S. hostilities lifted Brent above 3%, reviving the inflation channel but remaining secondary to Fed and AI valuation drivers. The bank notes the U.S. interception of Iranian missiles and retaliatory strikes, but argues these Oil price moves are unlikely to materially affect today’s Fed decision, keeping focus on policy and risk assets. Geopolitical flare-up lifts Brent prices "The brief pause in hostilities has ended. Iran launched missiles toward U.S. forces in Jordan, while U.S. and Saudi forces struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Brent rose more than 3%, reviving the inflation channel." "The move is unhelpful but remains secondary for sentiment: the dominant drivers are now the Fed, AI valuations, and positioning rather than geopolitics alone." "The U.S. said it intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile attack on military bases in the Middle East, ending a brief lull and heightening the risk of renewed escalation. Oil prices have reacted, but we don’t see the moves materially affecting today’s Fed decision." "U.S. Central Command said IRGC forces launched multiple missiles from Iran in a surprise attack, all of which were intercepted, while U.S. and Saudi forces also struck Iran-backed militants in Iraq after 30 drone attacks in the prior 72 hours." "Iran’s state media said the IRGC fired missiles at a U.S. airbase and command center in response to U.S. actions. President Trump said diplomacy with Tehran may still progress, but reiterated threats of force."

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Forex Trading

July 29, 2026

Trade of The Day – AUD/NZD

Facts: The pair is trading below a key resistance at 1.2086 AUDNZD sits below 100-period moving average Recommendation: Trade: Short position on AUDNZD at market price Target: 1.1660 Stop: 1.2145 Opinion: AUDNZD has been trading in an upward trend recently. However looking at the D1 interval, we can see that a potential trend reversal took place. The pair broke below the lower limit of 1:1 structure, which according to the Overbalance strategy heralds a bigger downward move. It seems that as long as the price sits below the 1.2086 resistance, one should expect the price to continue to fall. In addition the price sits below the 100-period moving average form D1 interval. We recommend going short AUDNZD at market price with a target of 1.1660. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.2145. Source: xStation5

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Banks

July 29, 2026

US Dollar: Long positioning faces FOMC risk – DBS

DBS Bank’s Philip Wee notes that Dollar bulls have built substantial long USD positions ahead of the FOMC, encouraged by Brent’s sharp rebound and expectations of a surprise rate hike by Chairman Kevin Warsh. However, he highlights growing scepticism that markets have overpriced hawkishness, with softer US data and recent pullbacks in Brent and US Treasury yields tempering the outlook for further tightening. USD longs vulnerable to quiet Fed "Driven by the rebound in Brent crude from $70 to $100 in the first three weeks of July, dollar bulls accumulated long USD positions, betting that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh would deliver a surprise rate hike at his second meeting." "The sceptics believe that these USD bulls have overpriced such hawkishness, banking too much on volatile energy prices rather than data." "The US Treasury 10-year yield eased, but hawks limited the decline to 4.60%, brushing aside the weakening US economic outlook." "What markets are assured of is Warsh’s promise of “honest discussion” with his Fed colleagues and his commitment to end forward guidance." "Hence, there is a risk that speculators may have to lighten their long USD positions if today’s FOMC meeting does not turn out hawkish enough to prompt a surprise hike today or to support a tightening in September."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Federal Reserve: Poised decision keeps markets on edge – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s US economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at a highly uncertain FOMC meeting, with markets pricing a significant chance of a hike. The report notes renewed Middle East tensions complicate the inflation outlook, while July hike probabilities have swung sharply as Chair Warsh avoids strong guidance, leaving investors focused on today’s policy decision and dissents. Highly uncertain FOMC outcome "All that leaves a volatile backdrop ahead of today’s FOMC decision, which is the most finely poised in years in terms of market pricing." "With a 32% chance of a rate hike today priced as of last night, this is the most uncertain that the market has been on whether the Fed will change rates going into a meeting since December 2018, when the eventual 25bps rate hike was about 65% priced the day before." "In terms of today’s decision, our US economists expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged but see the risks of a hike as significant with the renewed escalation in the Middle East complicating the inflation outlook." "If the Fed holds rates steady, they expect at least a couple of dissents in favour of a hike." "To the day ahead now, the main event will be the Fed’s policy decision."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Oil: Persian Gulf risks support prices – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent rebounded over 4% after recent losses as renewed attacks on US troops and Saudi energy infrastructure undermine prospects for a US–Iran deal. They highlight growing risks of prolonged supply disruptions, tight middle distillate markets, halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC+ plans to unwind voluntary cuts while maintaining a broadly well-supplied market outlook through 2027. Persian Gulf tensions tighten oil outlook "After a heavy sell-off in the oil market over the last three days, prices popped higher in early morning trading, with Brent up more than 4% at the time of writing. Renewed strength comes after the US said it intercepted a surprise attack on US troops. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, which were targeting Saudi energy infrastructure." "Clearly, with Saudi oil infrastructure increasingly targeted, the risk of more prolonged supply disruptions grows. There are reports that the 400k b/d Jazan refinery in Saudi Arabia has shut following Houthi attacks over the weekend. If confirmed, this will only add to tightness concerns in the refined products market already dealing with disruptions from the Persian Gulf, as well as Russia." "The tightness, particularly in middle distillates, is well reflected in the ICE gasoil crack. It has now broken above $70/bbl to record levels. The prompt ICE gasoil timespread has surged to a backwardation of above $80/bbl." "OPEC+ is expected to announce a supply increase of 188k b/d for September when the group meets on 2 August. This would see the full unwinding of the 1.65m b/d of voluntary cuts announced back in 2023. There are reports that the group will likely pause any further supply increases following the September increase." "However, post-disruption, the announced supply increases from the group reinforce the view of a well-supplied market through 2027. The big uncertainty through 2027 will be around the group’s policy, with the potential for pushback on output quotas. Particularly given the disruptions that a number of producers have faced this year."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Euro: Softer Fed signals may lift EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to deliver a "hawkish hold", with markets already pricing at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. She highlights that recent declines in energy prices and a softer June inflation print reduce the odds of an immediate hike, limiting upside for the US Dollar and leaving EUR/USD sensitive to any scaling back of Fed tightening expectations. Dollar vulnerable if hawkish hold disappoints "In all likelihood, this overall situation should lead to a “hawkish hold” this evening. The market expects at least one interest rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year and sees a chance that more could follow next year as well. It does not want to completely rule out an interest rate hike even today, even though it sees only a low probability for this to happen." "After all, it is unlikely that Warsh will adopt an extremely hawkish stance given the recent drop in energy prices and a surprisingly low June inflation rate." "For EUR/USD today, the key question is whether these expectations will be fueled - or not." "If the market scales back its expectations because the (possibly shorter than usual) FOMC statement or Warsh’s press conference suggests that the Fed views price risks as manageable and, above all, temporary, a correction in the USD is certainly possible." "Consequently, upward pressure on the US dollar driven by rising expectations of interest rate hikes is also unlikely."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Indian Rupee: Hedging demand rises on bond gains – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that INR faces strong selling pressure from a rebalancing perspective, as Indian bonds have outperformed major peers. With INR flows broadly flat, FX exposure has risen and investors are advised to keep hedging elevated after strong duration gains. Yu sees higher-beta currencies particularly exposed to July’s fixed-income moves. Indian bonds outperformance lifts FX risk "Selling pressure is strongest in INR. Like many emerging market (EM) bond markets, Indian duration benefited from lower oil prices during the first weeks of the ceasefire as real rates improved. The latest re-escalation has not erased those gains, and Indian bonds have outperformed the major markets we track." "With INR flows broadly flat over the month, FX exposure has risen and hedging demand has increased with it." "July’s duration gains are creating meaningful rebalancing needs, especially across higher-beta currencies. The real-rate outlook is more difficult, however, as central banks show growing reluctance to tighten further." "Global supply chains will take time to normalize, leaving non-U.S. real rates vulnerable if current market pricing persists. This strengthens the case for greater FX hedging across fixed-income portfolios." "Keep INR hedging elevated after strong bond returns and treat any rotation away from U.S. assets as a shift within equities rather than a broad move into fixed income."

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Markets

July 29, 2026

Today Markets – FOMC Preview

The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold when it announces its decision later on Wednesday. While a hold in rates at 3.5- 3.75% is likely, rising oil prices means that futures markets have priced in a growing chance of a rate hike at this meeting. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that there is a 30% chance of a rate hike at tonight’s meeting. The question is, will new chair Kevin Warsh spring a ‘surprise’ hike on financial markets? The Fed Fund Futures market thinks that there is a decent chance that the Fed will embark on a preemptive rate hike to address potential inflation risks ahead of time. But is the market right to think this? If the Fed does decide to hike rates tonight, then it would not be grounded in the current labour market or inflation readings, instead it will be rooted in risk management, in case this changes in the future. The current economic data available to the Fed does not suggest that the US economy is overheating. June NFPs slowed substantially to 57,000, and the May figure was also revised lower to 129k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, but there was a sharp drop in the labour force participation rate, which fell to 61.5% from 61.8%. The inflation outlook has also moderated in recent weeks. Headline inflation fell 0.4% on a month-on-month basis in June, and the annual rate was 3.5%. Core CPI was flat on a monthly basis, but the annual core CPI rate moderated to 2.6% from 2.9%. There are also signs that inflation could moderate further in the coming months: Tarif pass through has been less than expected and should fall out of the CPI index in the second half of this year. Shelter inflation has also moderated sharply, which is a sign that super core inflation is coming back under control. Falling energy prices could lead to greater disinflationary forces on the CPI rate later this year. There are still some outstanding concerns regarding price pressures, for example, the rising costs of AI and business investment, and the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which is causing volatility in the oil price. However, we think that a preemptive rate hike at this stage would be premature, since the Fed cannot control geopolitical risks that trigger energy price rises. The problems with ending forward guidance Governor Warsh has spoken about the variety of views at the Fed, and we expect these to be on show tonight. If the Fed remains on hold, as we expect, then traditionally the market would have expected some sort of timeline to understand how long the Fed is willing to either see through energy price spikes, or when disinflation will be enough to allow for rate cuts. The problem is that Governor Warsh is no fan of forward guidance, and we do not think that he will lay out a timeline for policy change at tonight’s press conference. These increase the chance of investor confusion in the aftermath of tonight’s decision, which is one of the main risks to abandoning forward guidance. The market impact In the absence of forward guidance, the impact on financial markets from tonight’s decision is binary. We think that the markets are overstating the chances of an immediate rate hike, and therefore any decision to remain on hold, even if there are hawkish dissents, could be seen as dovish. This could weigh on Treasury yields and the dollar. The USD index is higher by 3% so far this year and is at its highest level for more than a year, we think GBP/USD could be a beneficiary if the Fed does remain on hold this evening. The dollar has held a firm defensive position against the pound for the last 6 months, as GBP/USD has fallen back from a high above $1.38, it is currently trading around $1.33. In recent weeks, GBP has been pressured by haven demand for the dollar on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East. GBP/USD has also been negatively impacted by differing expectations for the path of central bank policy. Leading up to the Fed meeting, the Fed Fund Futures market is pricing in a 33% chance of a rate hike, however, there is only a 2% chance that the BOE will hike rates this week. This differential has dampened demand for GBP/USD. However, if the Fed holds rates tonight, as we expect, then GBP could bounce back. Key near-term resistance lies at $1.3428, the 200-day sma, a move above this level would signal a bullish shift in direction for this pair. A longer-term rally could test the $1.3475 level, which is the 61.8% retracement of the May high to the June low. Overall, the FOMC meeting is a major event for financial markets. However, now that Governor Warsh has disbanded with forward guidance, we expect the major reaction to come from the rate decision. We so not expect a large impact on asset prices from his press conference, as Warsh is expected to give away little information about the Fed’s future policy path. Chart 1: GBP/USD daily chart Source: XTB

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Forex Trading

July 29, 2026

Chart of The Day – AUD/USD drops with inflation! The biggest hawk is folding its wings?

The Australian dollar is sliding today against all G10 currencies in response to lower-than-expected CPI inflation data in Australia (AUD/USD, AUD/NZD: -0.3%). Both the latest reading for June and the full Q2 report came in below 4%, delivering the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) the first fruits of months of aggressive interest rate hikes. Technical Analysis: AUDUSD (D1) AUDUSD is testing key levels amidst intensifying selling pressure. Defending the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements is essential to prevent a deeper decline toward the 0.6900 area. A move below the yellow buffer zone (0.68800–0.69000) would signal a decisive return of the downtrend, potentially exacerbated by further disinflation in Australia. The RSI remains near the neutral 50 level, leaving room for further bearish pressure. The only hope for the bulls remains a very dovish signal from the Fed and a return above the 100-day EMA (dark purple). However, this scenario seems unlikely given the strong US labor market (stable unemployment, record-low jobless claims), rising PMI readings, and Warsh's uncompromising stance on above-target inflation. Source: xStation5 What is driving the AUDUSD decline today? Inflation drops below 4% : Australia's annual CPI inflation rate fell to 3.8% YoY in June from 4.0% in May, dropping 0.1% month-on-month. In the second quarter, inflation slowed to 0.6% QoQ (4.0% YoY) compared to 1.4% QoQ in Q1. Crucially for the RBA, trimmed mean inflation came in at 3.6% YoY (0.8% QoQ), falling below the central bank's forecast (3.8%). Cheaper fuel saves the reading: The main dampening factor was a nearly 11% drop in fuel prices in June, translating into disinflation in transport and goods. On the other hand, the housing sector weighed heavily (+6.8% YoY), where new home construction costs jumped 5.8% YoY due to higher material and labor costs. Furthermore, services inflation accelerated to 4.0% YoY, pointing to ongoing domestic price pressures in the economy. Market wipes out rate hike expectations: The swap-market-implied probability of an August rate hike in Australia dropped to zero. In fact, expectations fell across all time horizons. Interest rates in Australia are currently the highest among all G10 economies (4.35%). The last rate hike occurred in May, while subsequent months brought dovish signals from the RBA governor, who indicated that the current rate level is a good place to take a breather. The market no longer pricing in a full interest rate hike in Australia until March 2027. Pricing from last week indicated a move in February with near certainty (blue line), whereas currently, we are approaching the flat curve from a month ago, which signaled a pause alongside hopes at the time for an end to the Middle East conflict. Source: XTB Research.

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Markets

July 29, 2026

Fed to Keep Rates Steady, but Odds of a Hike Persist

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2026. However, the decision remains a close call, with markets assigning nearly a 30% probability to a rate hike. Policymakers continue to navigate heightened uncertainty driven by renewed tensions between the US and Iran and elevated oil prices, even as inflation has come in softer than expected and the labor market has remained resilient. US inflation eased to 3.5% in June, marking its first decline in five months. Investors will closely monitor both the voting split which has highlighted growing divisions within the Federal Reserve, and Chair Warsh's second press conference for clues about the likelihood of a rate hike in September. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 77% probability of an increase at that meeting. Chair Warsh has repeatedly emphasized that restoring price stability remains the Federal Reserve's foremost priority.

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Oil: Volatile on Iran conflict swings – UOB

UOB strategists report that Oil prices initially fell sharply as the United States (US) military campaign against Iran remained paused, with WTI dropping to USD 79.26 and Brent to USD 84.10. However, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) later rebounded as much as 5% above USD 83 after fresh fighting and news of a US interception of an Iranian attempted surprise attack, underscoring heightened geopolitical-driven volatility. Crude swings with Middle East risk "The continued decline in oil prices amid signs of de-escalation in the Iran conflict has been a welcome development for markets, with attention now shifting to the July FOMC meeting." "That said, oil rebounded this morning (with WTI rising as much as 5% to top US$83) as fresh fighting erupted as the US military said it successfully intercepted an Iranian “attempted surprise attack” on US troops based in the Middle East." "The recent rebound in crude oil prices has led markets to price in a 35.8% probability of a 25bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting." "Oil prices fell sharply as the US military campaign against Iran remained paused, raising hopes that a resolution to the conflict could be reached in the near term." "WTI crude declined 4.1% to USD 79.26 per barrel, its lowest level since July 16, while front-month Brent crude fell 4.8% to USD 84.10 per barrel."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Japanese Yen: Fed and energy drivers outweigh BoJ – ING

ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.00% on 31 July, with any modestly hawkish shift seen as unlikely to materially boost the Yen or change the USD/JPY trajectory. They argue that energy prices and the Federal Reserve’s reaction function will dominate USD/JPY over coming months, with a year-end forecast at 158 assuming no further Fed hikes. Fed and energy seen in control "The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged on 31 July after last month’s 25bp hike to 1.00%. While some see scope for a faster tightening cycle and an October hike, we doubt any modest hawkish shift will materially boost the yen or alter the USD/JPY outlook." "Energy prices and the Fed reaction function look to be the bigger driver of USD/JPY over the coming months, rather than a potentially more hawkish BoJ. And Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will have a big say here. Barring a surprisingly dovish Fed meeting, or a sudden drop in Brent back to $70/bl, we expect to stay bid near 163/164 into the BoJ meeting." "There is an outside risk of USD/JPY making a run at 165 if Governor Ueda is insufficiently hawkish in his press conference, but the risk of FX intervention remains. Here the BoJ spent $70bn in late April/early May and has remaining FX reserves of $1.09 trillion. Without doubt, Japanese authorities would prefer to sell USD/JPY into a falling market for greater effectiveness, but likely would be called into action should the 165 area be challenged." "As to the longer-term outlook for USD/JPY, we have a year-end forecast at 158 on a baseline view that the Fed does not hike." "There is also speculation that the Japanese government is looking at measures to support the yen by encouraging Japanese investors to keep more money at home."

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Banks

July 29, 2026

Euro: Softer Fed signals may lift EUR against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to deliver a "hawkish hold", with markets already pricing at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. She highlights that recent declines in energy prices and a softer June inflation print reduce the odds of an immediate hike, limiting upside for the US Dollar and leaving EUR/USD sensitive to any scaling back of Fed tightening expectations. Hawkish hold risk for Dollar "In all likelihood, this overall situation should lead to a “hawkish hold” this evening. The market expects at least one interest rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year and sees a chance that more could follow next year as well. It does not want to completely rule out an interest rate hike even today, even though it sees only a low probability for this to happen." "For EUR/USD today, the key question is whether these expectations will be fueled - or not." "If the market scales back its expectations because the (possibly shorter than usual) FOMC statement or Warsh’s press conference suggests that the Fed views price risks as manageable and, above all, temporary, a correction in the USD is certainly possible." "After all, it is unlikely that Warsh will adopt an extremely hawkish stance given the recent drop in energy prices and a surprisingly low June inflation rate." "Consequently, upward pressure on the US dollar driven by rising expectations of interest rate hikes is also unlikely."

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Markets

July 29, 2026

Corn Holds Near Multi-Week Highs

Corn futures held above $4.5 per bushel, staying near their highest level since late May as geopolitical disruptions raised concerns over global supplies, while persistent dry weather in parts of the US Midwest threatened yields. The USDA said that 63% of the country's corn crop was rated good-to-excellent, down from 67% a week earlier and below market expectations. Meanwhile, continued attacks between Russia and Ukraine raised concerns over Black Sea grain exports, with damage to port infrastructure and shipping routes threatening supplies from one of the world's key exporting regions. Additionally, renewed fighting in the Middle East constrained fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude oil prices higher. Higher energy prices supported corn by improving the outlook for ethanol demand. The market also remained underpinned by the USDA's latest WASDE report, which cut 2026/27 US ending stocks more than expected while raising export forecasts.

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Markets

July 29, 2026

Gold consolidates near two-week low, holds above $4,000 as traders await FOMC decision

Gold remains on the defensive as traders move to the sidelines ahead of the FOMC decision. A modest USD downtick supports the commodity, though the upside potential seems limited. Recovering oil prices revive inflation fears, boost Fed hike bets, and cap the precious metal. Gold (XAU/USD) enters a bearish consolidation phase after touching an over one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it manages to hold above the $4,000 psychological mark. A softer tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD) offers some support to the precious metal. However, a fresh escalation of tensions between the US and Iran should limit the downside for the Greenback. Furthermore, traders might opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting for more cues about the path of US interest rates, which will influence the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a surprise attack and targeted US forces in the Middle East with multiple ballistic missiles late Tuesday. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted, the US Central Command (Centcom) said in a post on X, and added that US forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness. In a subsequent statement, Centcom said that the US and Saudi forces struck multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq, retaliating against more than 30 drone attacks in the past three days by Iran-aligned terrorists. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump once again warned that the US will return to strong military action against Iran and target key Iranian infrastructure if diplomatic efforts do not bring a rapid resolution to the crisis. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the safe-haven USD. Adding to this, concerns about significant disruptions to global energy supplies trigger a sharp recovery in crude oil prices, reviving inflation fears and bolstering bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US central bank. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis fired missiles at a Saudi oil tanker for violating the maritime navigation ban imposed on Saudi vessels. This comes on top of the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and helps crude oil prices to stage a goodish recovery from an over two-week low, touched on Tuesday. The fundamental backdrop validates the near-term positive outlook for the USD, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciation in the Gold price. XAU/USD daily chart Technical analysis: Gold’s bearish setup backs the case for further near-term depreciation The recent range-bound price action since June 19 might be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a breakdown below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the wide gap between spot and this longer-term SMA suggests the broader trend remains under pressure despite some recent stabilization. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43 and keeps momentum in mildly negative territory. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edges higher and hints at a tentative recovery attempt within a still-depressed structure. Hence, any attempted recovery might continue to face an immediate hurdle near the $4,050 level. Further up, the top boundary of the trading range near $4,200 should act as a key barrier to beat. A daily close above this would be needed to ease the broader bearish bias and open the door to a more sustainable advance to the 200-day SMA at $4,493.65. On the downside, the $4,000 mark, followed by the $3,965 region, or the lower end of the trading range, could offer some support to the commodity. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to further slippage unless buyers can build a base above the said support levels.

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Markets

July 29, 2026

XAG/USD gains even as oil prices rebound, Fed policy awaited

Silver price jumps to near $57.80 despite a sharp recovery in oil prices. The US CENTCOM launches attacks on Iraq, targeting Iran-backed groups. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the fifth time in a row. Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.14% higher to near $57.80 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal gains even as oil prices rebound strongly due to renewed conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran. At press time, the WTI Oil price is up 3.65% to near $81.20, snapping a three-day losing streak. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported late Tuesday that it intercepted all ballistic missiles launched by Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces. In retaliation, CENTCOM reported carrying out precision strikes in Iraq, targeting Iran-backed groups planning attacks on US forces and Saudi oil facilities. The Silver price has underperformed in the past months as higher oil prices boost inflation expectations, a scenario that forces global central banks to lean towards higher or steady interest rates. Theoretically, higher interest rates by central banks bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 69.5% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. This will be the fifth straight policy meeting when the Fed will maintain the status quo. Investors should not expect any remarks from the Fed regarding the monetary policy guidance, as Chairman Kevin Warsh explicitly said in the previous meeting that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”. Silver technical analysis XAG/USD trades higher at around $57.63 at press time, but is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at roughly $58.93. The fact that price remains capped by this short-term EMA suggests rallies are being sold into, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that downside pressure still dominates even if conditions are not oversold. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA near $58.93, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open room for a further rebound towards $60.00. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support zone.

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Energies

July 29, 2026

Heating Oil Moves Back Toward 3-Month High

US heating oil prices rose to around $4.20 per gallon, moving back toward their three-month high, as the resumption of hostilities between Iran and the US revived fears of energy supply disruptions. Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East, marking an escalation after a pause in fighting although the US Central Command said all missiles were intercepted. The US military also conducted strikes with Saudi forces in Iraq targeting Iran-backed militant groups in response to Iranian-directed drone attacks. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran rejected Oman’s proposal to split control of shipping routes, insisting the inbound route and part of the outbound route remain under Tehran’s control. Outside the Middle East, Russia’s fuel crisis has started to ease as refineries resumed operations, but the diesel export ban continues to pressure an already tight diesel market. Elsewhere, industry data showed distillate stockpiles fell by 125,000 barrels in the week ending July 24.

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Energies

July 29, 2026

Gasoline Rises on Renewed US-Iran Hostilities

US gasoline prices rose to around $3.37 per gallon, moving back toward a two-month high, as renewed tensions between Iran and the US revived concerns over energy supply disruptions. Iran fired ballistic missiles at US positions in the Middle East, escalating the conflict after a temporary lull, though the US Central Command reported that all projectiles were intercepted. The US also carried out operations alongside Saudi forces in Iraq against Iran-backed militant groups. Meanwhile, Iran rejected Oman’s proposal to share oversight of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demanding control over the inbound route and a portion of outbound traffic. Outside the region, Russia eased gasoline purchase restrictions in several areas as supply conditions improved, but the extension of its export ban through year-end continued to limit relief for global gasoline availability. Elsewhere, industry data showed gasoline inventories rose by 918,000 barrels in the week ending July 24.

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Cryptocurrencies

July 28, 2026

XRP Price – Will Ripple fall to $1 again? Analysis and forecasts

Ripple is under pressure ahead of the Fed decision. Check whether the XRP price could fall to parity, and see the latest on-chain data and technical analysis. Uncertainty ahead of the Fed decision is weighing on the entire crypto market, pushing XRP toward the $1 support level. Despite price declines, XRP outflows from exchanges and rising interest in derivatives may point to token accumulation. Major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH) are also falling, while investors are watching capital rotation from the AI sector into selected DeFi projects. XRP Price: Will Ripple fall back to parity? What does the Fed decision mean for the crypto market? The crypto market is under downward pressure ahead of a key U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on interest rates. Ripple (XRP) continues to sell off, pushing prices toward the crucial support zone at $1.00. At the same time, mixed signals are emerging. On one hand, growing interest in derivatives and shrinking token reserves on exchanges suggest that some investors may be using the dip to accumulate. On the other hand, sentiment still points to a lack of long-term prospects for a rebound. The Fed’s rate decision weighs on the crypto market Weakness in crypto and rising risk aversion stem directly from uncertainty around the Fed’s decision. Moreover, the recent sell-off in AI-related stocks is not helping crypto sentiment, given the historically strong correlation between the tech-heavy Nasdaq and leading cryptocurrencies. Although market consensus assumes rates will be left unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, and interest rate futures currently price a 36% chance of a hike, the tone of Kevin Warsh’s remarks could be the biggest driver of moves not only for traditional assets like the dollar and bonds, but also for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. Loretta Mester, former president of the Cleveland Fed, notes that central bank officials face the difficult task of assessing whether the current rate level will effectively bring inflation down to the 2% target. Meanwhile, Chair Warsh’s statements clearly suggest no tolerance for persistent price pressures. This wait-and-see stance is putting pressure on the entire industry: Mass liquidations: Coinglass data show that positions of more than 118,000 traders, worth over $400 million, were liquidated in just 24 hours. ETF outflows: Spot ETFs recorded net outflows of more than $240 million from Bitcoin funds and $70 million from Ethereum funds in recent days, although 10-session averages still point to inflows. Ripple (XRP) technical analysis: Bears remain in control XRP is currently hovering near $1.05, maintaining a bearish setup in the short term. The price has stayed above the parity level since November 2024 and sits below the middle Bollinger Band and the 50-period moving average. It is worth noting that consolidation has been visible near $1.10 since June, while the previous consolidation phase from February to May took place around $1.40. From the August 2025 highs, XRP has lost more than 70% of its value. If Ripple were to fall below $1.00, the next major support is slightly above $0.70. On-chain signals and derivatives: Open Interest rises, Binance sees XRP deposit declines Despite the price drop, market data show some bullish signals beneath the surface-level selling pressure: Open Interest jump in futures: Open Interest (OI) in XRP derivatives has risen to 2.25 to 2.35 billion XRP. Sustained demand in derivatives could stabilize the price and lay the groundwork for a rebound attempt. Falling reserves on Binance: XRP balances on Binance slipped to 2.60 billion XRP (from 2.61 billion the day before and 2.71 billion at the start of June). Moving tokens off exchanges suggests reduced immediate sell-side liquidity and a desire to accumulate in external wallets. The broader crypto market: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and rotation from AI Price pressure has also hit market leaders. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $63,000, while Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $1,870, even though earlier in the week there was speculation about a potential break above $2,000. Capital rotation: From artificial intelligence to crypto and DeFi A potentially interesting macro trend may be emerging. Some experts are declaring the “end of the AI bull market” and pointing to capital rotation into digital assets. An example of rising institutional interest is Bitmine Tom Lee’s purchase of 9,946 ETH, which pushed the ETH/BTC ratio to a three-month high. On a daily basis, the market is showing significant sector divergence: Top gainers (DeFi): Curve DAO and Uniswap are showing local resilience despite the broader market decline (where the median return was -2.38%). Projects under pressure (GameFi / Move-to-Earn): Gala, STEPN, and Zcash. Oversold signals: VeChain (-1.73σ) and SushiSwap (-1.64σ) are at standard-deviation levels suggesting historical undervaluation. The upcoming FOMC decision will determine whether the increase in capital flowing from rotation out of AI can offset macro risk aversion and protect XRP from a test of $1.00, or prevent Bitcoin from falling below $60,000.

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Markets

July 28, 2026

France Challenges Palantir, Market Reacts.

France has decided that Palantir’s solutions, used among others by the French domestic intelligence service DGSI, will be replaced in the future with domestic solutions. PLTR.US chart (D1) This is not the only factor, but it is the main driver behind the decline in Palantir, which is down about 8% in Tuesday’s session. The stock is now 40% below its peak. A dangerous precedent For the company, this news is very unfavorable, not because a single French agency intends to stop using its solutions. The valuation problem is twofold: First, this is one of the first major and significant steps aimed at making European security independent of American digital solutions. The specific case of France and Palantir shows that even in areas where the “moat” and barriers to entry are enormous, the government does not hesitate to take on the risk and costs of switching to its own solutions. Given the company’s controversial nature and the increasingly less trusted foreign policy of the US, France could become the leader that pulls the rest of Europe into a process of moving away from the company’s solutions, and such a development would be devastating for valuations. Second, the company meant to replace Palantir is ChapsVision, a fast growing firm with an impressive range of solutions, yet it still lags far behind Palantir in most financial metrics. If ChapsVision were able to deliver a solution meeting DGSI standards, it would be a clear signal that the prices and margins Palantir enjoys are not justified. Adding fuel to the fire This news hit at a very fragile sentiment among the company’s investors. Cleveland Research published a report with a clearly negative tone for the company’s valuation, pointing to “below expectations” sentiment among the company’s partners. In addition, Michael Burry once again, along with a number of other analysts, also spoke negatively about the company, pointing for example to an unsustainable growth rate and valuation multiples. Investor confidence is not helped by the fact that members of the company’s management are selling large volumes of shares just ahead of earnings. It is worth noting that this is not the first time, and such selling has not always preceded declines, but it is hard to avoid tough questions. Sentiment is not uniform, however. Analysts at Oppenheimer and Baird remain outspokenly confident in their bullish theses for the company. Market context All of this news is problematic and materially affects the share price. Hanging over the entire market is the Fed meeting, which has become an unknown since K. Warsh took the chair. Palantir is a company that is exceptionally sensitive to fragile sentiment due to extreme valuation metrics. With multiples as high as Palantir’s, even small downward revisions or disappointments lead to crushing sell offs, because a small move today has a huge impact on the company’s target value. The company will publish its results on August 3, after the close of trading on Wall Street. The market expects EPS to rise to $0.34 and revenue of $18.1 billion. Margins, customer mix, and guidance for the next quarters will also be key.

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Banks

July 28, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA keeps hike option alive – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock signaled a possible rate hike at the August 10–11 meeting, stressing inflation is still too high and productivity weak. She noted domestic demand and the labor market have softened, but the RBA stands ready to tighten further if needed, with AUD/USD slightly weaker and Australian bond yields lower. Bullock flags August hike risk "Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock signaled that an interest rate hike will be on the table at the RBA’s August 10–11 meeting." "She said inflation remains too high, with the board focused on preventing elevated cost pressures from becoming entrenched." "Bullock said domestic demand has eased and labor market conditions have softened, but weak productivity is limiting the economy’s ability to grow without reigniting inflation." "She warned that without stronger productivity, Australians will struggle to see meaningful real wage growth." "The bank is prepared to tighten further if needed to meet its mandate."

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Markets

July 28, 2026

The coffee market in the grip of weather and empty warehouses: The paradox of record Brazil harvests

Although coffee has lost value since the beginning of this year, looking at the last months or days, we observe a very strong growth dynamic. In recent days, the demand force has been gaining strength and coffee prices are marking the strongest increases in a long time. Arabica futures rose by almost 10% in just two sessions. This situation seems logical on the surface, given the highly optimistic harvest forecasts from Brazil. To understand why prices are rising despite the promise of record harvests, one must look at the market through the prism of what is happening "here and now," not what will happen in a few months. Price changes in the commodities market in the last month Coffee is growing very strongly from the perspective of the last 30 days. Source: XTB What about record harvests in Brazil? The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) expectations for a massive harvest in Brazil (exceeding 70 million bags) are still valid, but long-term market fundamentals are one thing, and the physical availability of the commodity at a given time is another. The main culprit for the current increases is the weather, which is brutally delaying harvests and may indicate that earlier forecasts were overly optimistic. Although the USDA pointed to forecasts at the level of 70 million bags of coffee in Brazil, the assessments of other institutions, including the Brazilian CONAB, remain significantly lower. In Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica growing region in Brazil, just over 32 mm of rain fell in just one week, which is as much as 2700% of the historical average for this period. These heavy rains mean that farmers have huge problems not only in harvesting but also in drying and transporting the beans. Although the potential supply on paper is huge, this coffee has not yet reached the market. What's more, market commentators point out that although the quantity of coffee will be sufficient, growers will face problems regarding the quality of the beans. Although Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and its coffee is available as part of deliveries on the ICE exchange, the lack of quality harvests may lead to drained stocks of the commodity on the ICE not increasing, despite record harvests. Warehouse collapse: Stocks almost lowest since the 90s. Delays in deliveries from Brazil are hitting the market at the worst possible moment, when exchange warehouses are empty. Stocks of certified Arabica monitored by the ICE exchange are falling drastically, recently recording the largest single-day drop (by 5.9%) since the beginning of 2025. In the course of 25 consecutive trading sessions, these stocks have shrunk by a total of as much as 26%. From historical data and inventory curves, it appears that the level of reserves is indeed approaching critical minimums not seen since the turn of the 90s and 2000s (currently falling below the limit of 300 thousand bags). In addition, the supply situation is complicated by tensions in the Red Sea. Extended transit times for ships, higher freight costs, and the need for logistics companies to maintain larger inventories mean that deliveries to consumer markets are seriously delayed. Arabica coffee price along with ICE inventories (inverted axis) Stocks tracked by ICE have fallen to their lowest levels since the turn of 2023/2024, which in turn are the lowest since the 90s. All this is taking place despite the expected record harvests in Brazil. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Is this already a change in trend to a permanently upward one? The current strong price increase is largely a short-term supply panic effect, although at the same time due to the unpredictable weather, one cannot rule out a situation in which the current increases end with reaching new historical highs. The extremely strong El Nino weather phenomenon usually affects excessive rainfall in South America and droughts in Southeast Asia, which can mean potential support for coffee crops in Brazil, but worsening logistics, while simultaneously hitting supply in Asia hard. However, the market believes that supply will not be a problem in the future. This is evidenced by the structure of the futures market itself. The difference (spread) in price between September and December contracts has widened to a record level of over 24 cents per pound. This means a powerful phenomenon of backwardation. Roasters and buyers are willing to pay a huge premium for the delivery of coffee immediately because they are afraid that it will run out in warehouses in a moment. Contracts for subsequent years are priced much lower. Forward curve for Arabica coffee currently (black line) and 6 months ago (orange line) The forward curve for coffee continues to indicate that short-term supply is the problem, while higher coffee production is expected in the future. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Summary and conclusions The coffee market is currently showing considerable concerns about short-term supply, similar to what happened in the cocoa market just a few weeks ago. However, if production is to continue to grow, and in the near future it will affect the recovery of stocks, it may turn out that prices will have difficulty rising to the highest levels in history. Theoretically, when all the coffee is harvested and starts reaching consumers around the world, we should observe this in the price already in the autumn period. If, however, prices do not start to fall from currently high levels then, it may mean that the physical situation is indeed tight, and we can simply throw paper expectations regarding high production into the bin. Coffee technical chart on the D1 interval Coffee prices have been rising very strongly since the beginning of this week, and the price is already testing the vicinity of half of the last entire large downward wave. The 350-360 cents per pound of coffee zone will be crucial. If these levels can be permanently broken, it may mean an attempt to return to 400 cents, and even an attack on historical peaks. If, however, it turns out that coffee production in Brazil will indeed be record-breaking, the price may return to 300 cents per pound faster than would follow from the forward structure, which assumes such a level only in March 2028. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

July 28, 2026

Trade of The Day – USD/NOK

Facts USDNOK returned today above the 10- and 30-day exponential moving averages (EMA10 and EMA30). The yield spread between US and Norwegian 10-year government bonds (US-NOR) has widened by approximately 8 basis points over the past month (today vs. June 26). The swap market is fully pricing in a September interest rate hike in the US. Recommendation Position : Long (BUY) on USDNOK at market price Target Price (Take Profit; TP): 9.9000 (TP1), 10.0000 (TP2) Stop Loss (SL): 9.5450 Source: xStation5 Opinion After breaking out to a 5-month high in late June, USDNOK entered a local downtrend driven by the resurgence of military actions in the Persian Gulf and rising oil prices. The ~4% correction ended on Monday, and the exchange rate is currently attempting to break out of this downtrend, aided by falling oil prices that are weakening the Norwegian krone. A rebound in USDNOK should be supported by the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance. During the central banking forum in Sintra, Kevin Warsh explicitly identified inflation as enemy number one, emphasizing that the Fed will not tolerate inflation above target and suggesting it will not take AI-driven productivity gains for granted. A hawkish Fed is also backed by the recent series of US economic data (jobless claims at their lowest since 1969, a stable unemployment rate, and better-than-expected PMI readings indicating expansion in the private sector). The gathering economic momentum, accompanied by sticky inflation above 3%, is driving interest rate expectations across all time horizons (e.g., the year-end rate implied by the swap market rose from 4.00% to 4.05% over the past month). Expectations for Norges Bank are also hawkish (the swap market is pricing in a 25 bps hike by the end of the year), but they are gaining momentum more slowly than those for the US, as evidenced by the upward trend in the 10-year yield spread between the two economies. A renewal of upward pressure on oil prices could naturally strengthen the NOK; however, geopolitical risk simultaneously supports the dollar, which should limit any non-monetary-policy-driven declines in USDNOK. Methodology This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the USDNOK chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (monetary policy in Norway and the United States). The directional bias was determined using moving averages and market expectations regarding central bank policies. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were established using Fibonacci retracements and price action: TP1 is set at the recent peak. TP2 is set at the next key resistance level. SL is placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April–May 2026 downward wave.

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Banks

July 28, 2026

Federal Reserve: Knife-edge policy risks surprise – ING

ING’s Padhraic Garvey expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave rates unchanged at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with odds seen around 60:40 for no move. He argues that calmer June inflation, reduced geopolitical tensions with Iran and vulnerabilities in the US economy outside tech support a hold. However, he notes a non-negligible risk of a surprise 25bp hike. Fed decision finely balanced at 60:40 "The upcoming FOMC meeting will be the first in quite some time that a large portion of observers will get an outcome they did not anticipate. It's practically on a knife-edge, at 60:40 in favour of no change. The logic for no change centres, in part, on the calming in June inflation readings." "Our call is for no change. We see inflation expectations tame enough for comfort. Also, the structure of the curve does not shape up for a rate hiking cycle." "Specifically, the 5yr is rich to the curve. It's unusual for the Fed to start a rate hiking cycle with the 5yr rich to the curve. If we're wrong and the Fed does hike (whether at this meeting or the next), the curve structure suggests that any hikes delivered will be subsequently reversed, and the funds rate ends up lower than it is today within a 12-month window." "That said, the Federal Reserve could be forgiven for lobbing a protective hike in. It's what central banks tend to do when there is a perceptible rise in inflation over and above preferred ranges. The market has been paving a path towards a hike for this reason, as it's the logical market discount to have." "One final point – if Warsh is minded to get a hike in (and maybe he is), better to do it at this meeting than to wait for it to be discounted by the market at the next one. The temptation to show some Fed independence vis-à-vis the market must absolutely be there. For clarity, we don't call for a hike."

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Banks

July 28, 2026

Euro: Pressured by softer ECB expectations – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight a softer Euro (EUR), with EUR/USD drifting toward the mid-1.13s and levels last seen in May 2025. The broader US Dollar (USD) tone dominates, while yield spreads show weakening support as markets fade post-September European Central Bank (ECB) hikes. Technicals are bearish, with limited support before the low-1.13s and expectations for a near-term 1.1300–1.1400 range. Support erodes as ECB expectations are repriced "The EUR is soft, down a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD while drifting toward fresh one month lows in the mid-1.13s and threatening a break to levels last seen in May 2025." "The broader tone remains dominant however yield spreads are also suggesting a loss of fundamental support on the back of a renewed softening in ECB rate expectations since last Thursday’s policy decision." "Messaging from the ECB remains hawkish as policymakers guide for a hike in September however the market looks to be starting to fade some of the tightening that was priced in beyond the next meeting. Near-term fundamental risk is limited ahead of Friday’s preliminary CPI release." "EUR/USD short-term technicals: Bearish—the latest downward drift has dragged the RSI firmly into bearish territory. We see limited support ahead of the low 1.13s and the late June low. A break would open up the risk of a push to levels last seen in May 2025, and threaten a retracement of the broader rally from parity. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1300 and 1.1400."

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Banks

July 28, 2026

Swiss Franc: Weak performance tied to carry and Gold – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists argue that the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) underperformance since the February 2026 Iran shock reflects both low-yield carry dynamics and sensitivity to Gold prices. With the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expected to keep policy on hold and sight deposits muted, they see global rate paths and commodities as key drivers for Swiss Franc (CHF) crosses, limiting further sustained CHF weakness. SNB on hold leaves CHF to globals "Since the Iran shock at the end of February 2026, CHF has become one of the worst-performing global currencies along with SEK. Risk-off sentiment only supported CHF briefly in the first half of March, before a downtrend ensued." "CHF has always been a low-yielding currency, but FX carry did not always drive CHF weaker. In fact, during the last global rate hiking cycle of 2022, when rate differential widened in favor of global currencies against CHF, CHF broadly rallied on the back of falling SNB sight deposits. Sight deposits have shown a muted change in 2026, which has allowed macro variables to dictate the direction of EUR/CHF. With the SNB likely to keep the policy rate on hold in the foreseeable future, rate paths for global central banks will matter more for CHF-crosses." "CHF has been one of the worst-performing global currencies since the Iran shock in 2026. While CHF bears have been awakened with FX market participants largely attributing CHF weakness to carry, we find falling gold price also matters. The EUR/CHF rally could end if ECB pauses rate hikes after September; falling gold prices will be a prerequisite for CHF to stay weak." "In the scenario that the ECB keeps policy rate on hold after one more hike in September, the EU-SZ rate differential would likely see its peak, and further gold selloff will be needed for the CHF to stay weak, in our view. In commodities, our research suggests gold prices could fall to $3,900/oz in the near-term before recovering into a new uptrend. As we see limited scope for a prolonged global rate hiking cycle and only modest gold price downside, our FX forecast has EUR/CHF staying around 0.93 into year-end 2026."

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Banks

July 28, 2026

Australian Dollar: RBA pause risk weighs on Aussie – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that Australian Dollar (AUD) is underperforming after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock balanced a hawkish bias with a message of patience, noting easing domestic demand and labour conditions. RBA cash rate futures cut August hike odds from about 30% to 20%, with AUD/USD edging towards key support at the 200-day moving average as BBH sees risks skewed to an extended pause. RBA patience trims hike expectations "RBA Governor Michele Bullock stuck to the bank’s hawkish bias but also hinted at patience. Bullock said the full effects of increases in the cash rate from earlier in the year will take time to materialize, adding “there’s evidence that domestic demand and labour market conditions have been easing as required to bring the economy back towards balance.” Still, Bullock reiterated that the bank is prepared to “increasing the cash rate further if needed.”" "RBA cash rate futures trimmed August rate hike bets from about 30% to 20% after Bullock’s remarks. AUD dipped against USD and most other major currencies. AUD/USD is edging down towards key support at 0.6904, the 200-day moving average." "In our view, the risk is skewed towards an extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle which is a headwind for AUD: (i) RBA projects real GDP growth to be below potential over the next two years; (ii) RBA cash rate at 4.35% currently sits near the top of the range of model-based central estimates of the nominal neutral rate."

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Banks

July 28, 2026

Canadian Dollar: Limited upside for CAD against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note USD/CAD is trading near fair value around 1.4115, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) constrained by wide short-term rate differentials versus the Dollar. Softer Oil is a mild drag, and while a Fed hold could allow some CAD gains, they do not expect meaningful improvement until rate spreads narrow later in 2026. CAD capped by wide rate differentials "The CAD is holding little changed against the generally stronger USD. Our fundamental fair value estimate suggests spot is trading right about where it should be in broad terms, with the equilibrium estimate edging up to 1.4086 today." "Softer crude oil is a mild headwind but the real constraint on the CAD still comes from wide short-term interest rate differentials relative to the USD. A Fed hold tomorrow may allow the CAD to improve a little but scope for improvement is limited absent a significant narrowing in rate differentials—which we do not expect to develop until later this year." "Neutral/bullish—The CAD’s technical situation is largely unchanged but spot is testing initial resistance 1.4115/25, ahead of 1.4160 and key resistance at 1.4250. Support is 1.4060."

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Banks

July 28, 2026

British Pound: Political risks and BoE stance shape outlook – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses British Pound (GBP) prospects around UK welfare reform, shifting voter polls and the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) decision. Foley highlights how PM Burnham’s fiscal choices and intra-Labour tensions could affect gilts and the Pound. With soft UK inflation but higher Oil prices, Foley expects steady BoE policy and sees EUR/GBP biased higher toward 0.87 over three months. Politics and BoE expectations drive Pound "These hints of fiscal restraint have pleased both the gilts market and GBP today. That said, it will be a big test of Burnham’s premiership given that Labour MPs have warned the PM that he would lose their support if he approached welfare reform with ‘punitive cuts’. For now, the markets and the electorate alike appear willing to give Burnham the benefit of the doubt." "However, welfare reform is likely to spark friction within the Labour party and could be directional for both gilts and the value of the pound." "If Burnham can demonstrate fiscal prudence, the outlook for GBP is set to turn more positive. If he can do this while maintaining coherence within the Labour party, the outlook for the pound will be even better. Realistically, however, there is significant scope for political friction to arise." "This would likely be a source of volatility for the pound in the coming months. Indeed, it is possible that Burnham’s honeymoon with voters, Labour MPs and the markets will run out of steam into the autumn, if not before." "Given the potential for disappointment over a lack of rate rises from the Bank this year, coupled with the likelihood of political friction over budget cuts, we see risk of an upside bias in EUR/GBP towards 0.87 on a 3-month view."

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Markets

July 28, 2026

$4,000 – Gold’s key support faces a crucial Fed test

Gold falls as a firmer US Dollar outweighs support from declining Oil prices. Traders await the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing a 35% chance of a rate hike. XAU/USD approaches $4,000 support, with RSI on the daily chart holding below the neutral 50 level. Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer US Dollar (USD), even as Oil prices extend their pullback on hopes of an end to the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,027, down 1.20% on the day, after failing to sustain gains above $4,100 on Monday. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the two sides were having “good talks” and that there was a “good chance something will happen,” but warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Iran denied holding direct talks with the United States. Meanwhile, Oman presented Iran with a proposal for the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz through “voluntary fees,” under which Iran would not have sole control of the key shipping route. Oil prices have erased all the gains recorded last week, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $80.30, extending its decline for a third consecutive day. Despite the sharp pullback, Oil prices remain elevated and continue to fuel inflation concerns. While the US-Iran war stays at the forefront, attention is also turning to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate decision on Wednesday, which carries an unusually high risk of a surprise rate hike. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders price in around a 35% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase. Hawkish bets have strengthened since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led his first policy meeting in June. Warsh has repeatedly stressed the need to restore price stability as inflation runs above the 2% target. Will $4,000 hold or break? For Gold, the upcoming Fed decision could prove pivotal in determining whether the $4,000 support holds or gives way to a deeper corrective decline. A surprise rate hike would put Gold at risk of falling below $4,000. Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on non-yielding assets while boosting the US Dollar and US Treasury yields. The base case is a hawkish hold, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged while keeping the door open to an increase later this year as energy-driven inflation risks persist without a lasting resolution to the US-Iran war. Such an outcome could also leave Gold vulnerable to a break below $4,000. Meanwhile, if the Fed adopts a less hawkish stance and views the energy shock as temporary, traders may scale back rate-hike bets. That could weaken the US Dollar and help Gold hold above the $4,000 support. Technical analysis: Bears retain control below middle Bollinger Band On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias as it trades below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $4,072, which also represents the middle Bollinger Band. The band structure shows spot trading in the lower half of the envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.42 stays below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that recovery attempts lack strong momentum within a still‑pressured trend backdrop flagged by an Average Directional Index (ADX) near 32, which signals persistent but moderating trend strength. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band and 20‑day SMA near $4,072, followed by the upper band around $4,179, where sellers could reassert control if tested. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $4,000 handle, ahead of the lower Bollinger band near $3,964. A daily close below this latter floor would expose deeper losses and reinforce the prevailing bearish bias.

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Markets

July 28, 2026

ASML sell-out: Dreams and rumors will not break the monopoly

Shares of ASML, the largest and, according to many, the most important company in Europe, fell as much as 8% during Monday’s session. The situation was so dramatic that the Amsterdam exchange had to halt trading in the instrument. The downward catalyst was the news that China is supposedly about to begin mass production of “DUV” systems, meaning lithography machines based on “deep ultraviolet.” But what does this really mean for the market and for ASML? Questions without answers A seemingly simple message contains a large number of implications, doubts, and questions, but almost no specifics. Phantom companies The best primary source is a Reuters article. It points to an anonymous informant from within China’s semiconductor industry, who said that a small state-owned company in Shanghai is expected to attempt production of DUV machines. The amount of information about this entity online is close to nonexistent. At the moment, it is difficult to determine whether the companies involved in the initiative even exist. The best primary source is a Reuters article. It points to an anonymous informant from within China’s semiconductor industry, who said that a small state-owned company in Shanghai is expected to attempt production of DUV machines. The amount of information about this entity online is close to nonexistent. At the moment, it is difficult to determine whether the companies involved in the initiative even exist. Not much "mass" in production “Mass production,” as some sources describe it, means a plan for 5 machines in 2026 and 20 machines in 2027. Is that mass production? ASML produces 130 such machines per year. “Mass production,” as some sources describe it, means a plan for 5 machines in 2026 and 20 machines in 2027. Is that mass production? ASML produces 130 such machines per year. A race from decade ago For ASML, DUV is a segment the company is moving away from, because it is an outdated standard compared with ASML’s core business, EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet). The current leaders in the DUV market are Nikon and Canon, both of which produce hundreds of such machines annually. So China’s “mass production” would represent not a percent, but more like a per-mille share of the market. For ASML, DUV is a segment the company is moving away from, because it is an outdated standard compared with ASML’s core business, EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet). The current leaders in the DUV market are Nikon and Canon, both of which produce hundreds of such machines annually. So China’s “mass production” would represent not a percent, but more like a per-mille share of the market. Not all DUV's are made equal If Chinese DUV machines exist, nothing is known about their resolution, reliability, throughput, or yield. Even small changes in these parameters can worsen profitability by orders of magnitude. If Chinese DUV machines exist, nothing is known about their resolution, reliability, throughput, or yield. Even small changes in these parameters can worsen profitability by orders of magnitude. ASML results by country and segment [2026] Source: ASML In summary, the DUV segment, while still important (just under 30% of sales), is one ASML is clearly withdrawing from, because the breakthrough EUV offers much better margins and growth potential, which more than compensates for the Chinese market, assuming it were to disappear quickly for the company. An indestructible monopoly? A much more important question can be asked: if China currently has DUV production technology, or at least anonymous sources claim so without providing any evidence, is it only a matter of time before China also acquires EUV technology, which is ASML’s main competitive advantage? Absolutely and under any circumstances - not . If China has gained the ability to produce DUV machines at the dizzying volume of a few units, that represents plugging a huge, gaping hole in the capabilities of China’s lithography industry, which even in light of this hypothetical revelation remains decades behind Europe’s ASML. It must be understood that ASML’s products are not consumer solutions, like consumer electronics, that can be copied. The jump from DUV to EUV is not a step or a march, but a flight, and not to the Moon bur rather - to Mars. To get where it is today, ASML had to build a network of ultra-specialized companies that, over decades, perfected every component of ASML’s machines. Even obtaining a complete ASML EUV machine, which is protected in a manner comparable to how, for example, nuclear weapons are safeguarded, would only be the beginning of building an entire production chain from scratch, and in the best case would take many years. Trying to replicate ASML’s success by any other entity through classic R&D would take, at best, 10 years and more likely around 20 years. ASML earnings [2018–2026] The current sell-off in ASML is a price move based on unconfirmed information that the market has heavily overinterpreted. The fundamentals and outlook for ASML remain unchanged.

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Banking

July 28, 2026

Swiss Franc: SNB on hold view boosts funding role – ING

ING’s Chris Turner highlights a Bloomberg source story suggesting the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may keep its policy rate at 0.00% until end-2027, aligning with ING’s own forecast. He argues this entrenches Swiss Franc (CHF) underperformance in rising global rate environments and supports using USD/CHF to express hawkish Fed views, with potential for the pair to reach 0.85 in August if the Fed hikes. Franc seen as prime funding currency "Yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg ran a source story that insiders at the Swiss National Bank felt the SNB would keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.00% until the end of 2027. Forward guidance, like this, has become exceptionally unfashionable in central banking circles this summer. Additionally, we very rarely receive source stories like this from the SNB. The opposite is true of the European Central Bank, where post-meeting source reports are now commonplace." "The SNB has yet to comment on this report, which may very well be true. Certainly, at ING, we forecast the SNB on hold throughout 2027 and have seen that as a factor which drives Swiss franc underperformance when global interest rates rise on higher oil prices – this as interest rate differentials widen against the franc." "The story will also point carry trade investors to increasingly fund out of Swiss francs rather than the yen. Funding out of Swiss francs is cheaper and also avoids the risk of the Bank of Japan intervening to the tune of $70bn, which could trigger a quick 3-4% drawdown for yen-funded carry trades." "We have also been saying this for a while, but we think Switzerland's low rate environment has made USD/CHF a very popular vehicle to express hawkish Fed views. Were the Fed to blow the doors off with a hike tomorrow, USD/CHF could be looking at 0.85 in August."

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Banking

July 28, 2026

Polish Zloty: Political fragmentation clouds zloty outlook – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Poland’s Law and Justice party has split, with Mateusz Morawiecki forming Development Plus and polling above the Sejm threshold. While this could, in theory, reduce the risk of a dominant PiS government and lower the zloty’s political risk premium, competing scenarios of a fragmented, harder-to-manage right leave the overall Polish Zloty (PLN) impact uncertain for now. PiS split complicates risk pricing "Poland’s opposition politics took a notable turn last week after Law and Justice (PiS) split, with ex-PM Mateusz Morawiecki and more than 30 MPs leaving the party after refusing to sign loyalty declarations demanded by PiS chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski." "The first polling after the break-up suggests that Morawiecki’s party would take 7.5% in an election, clearing the 5% threshold for Sejm representation. KO remains in front at 28.5%, while rump PiS drops to 15.9%. More strikingly, the far-right Konfederacja and the even farther-right Korona are polling at 13.5% and 12.3% respectively. " "On this arithmetic, KO and the Left would take 207 seats, while PiS, Konfederacja and Korona would take 222, leaving Morawiecki’s projected 31 seats as potentially decisive." "The immediate temptation is to call this zloty-positive because PiS is fragmenting. If the right-wing movement were to disintegrate in Poland, this would reduce the probability of a clean PiS return to full-spectrum power at the 2027 election, and would therefore lower the structural political risk premium on the zloty." "But such a conclusion would be premature. There are several other angles. A split could allow PiS to compete harder for right-wing voters while Morawiecki captures more moderate centre-right voters, with an unspoken plan for the two to re-combine after the election. Alternatively, a fragmented right could make coalition-building messier, not easier, especially if radical parties become indispensable." "For now, the implication for the zloty is unclear: the development warrants watching for sure, but it is not yet a clean PLN-positive development"

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Banking

July 28, 2026

Federal Reserve: Close July call keeps Dollar traders data-focused – BNY

BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the upcoming July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while stressing it is a close call. They highlight market pricing for at least one hike by September and see future moves driven by incoming US inflation data and Middle East-related energy shocks. FOMC hold seen but risks remain "We don’t expect a change to the federal funds rate this week, even though we acknowledge it’s finely balanced. If we’re right, hawkish dissents are likely; if the FOMC does tighten, expect a dissent or two in favor of holding." "Market expectations assign slightly more than a one-third chance of a hike this week. September pricing puts a hike at nearly three-in-four, and combined, July and September pricing suggests the Fed will hike at least once before then, with little expected beyond that." "Many market observers have commented that if the market is already primed for slightly higher rates by the beginning of the fall, the Fed should just go ahead and raise the policy rate this week. We don’t find this answer compelling and observe that implied rate hike probabilities can switch quickly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains intractable and unpredictable, and with that uncertainty, energy prices and inflation expectations might adjust quickly." "With the recent resumption in Middle East hostilities, we expect many energy-related components to push higher, including those elements of supercore (like transportation) that are impacted by supply chain shocks. However, we see relief in many other categories not related to energy prices. Two more CPIs and two more PCE deflators will be published before September 16, and they are likely to move the needle definitively one way or the other. We think it prudent for the Fed to wait to see both the depth and breadth of renewed higher energy prices on the aggregate indices." "If we’re right and the Fed elects not to change rates, we’d expect the market reaction to depend on how such a hold is presented. Will it be a “hawkish hold” that leaves the market expecting September to be a sure thing, or will the Warsh Fed be reticent to hint at what’s coming? We think the latter, given the new Chair’s recent comments."

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Banking

July 28, 2026

Singapore Dollar: MAS surprise tightening supports SGD – HSBC

HSBC’s Abhilash Narayan notes that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy on 27 July 2026 by raising the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope to 1.25%. Supported by strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prospects, Narayan now forecasts 4.6% growth for 2026. He expects another MAS tightening in October and maintains an overweight stance on Singapore equities for their quality and defensive characteristics. MAS move underpins SGD and local stocks "The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised the markets by delivering an unexpected tightening of monetary policy at its meeting on 27 July 2026. This comes on the back of a policy tightening in April. The MAS raised the slope of the SGD NEER (Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate) band “very slightly” by 0.25% to 1.25%." "Singapore’s robust growth trajectory also gives the central bank greater confidence to focus on tackling inflation. The tailwind from the artificial intelligence boom, along with the resilience of the construction and services sectors, leads us to upgrade our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.6% (from 3.3% previously)." "We expect the MAS to tighten the monetary policy again in October, bringing the SGD NEER slope to 1.50%. Solid fundamentals and an attractive dividend yield support our overweight stance on Singapore equities, which continue to offer high-quality and defensive exposure."

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Banking

July 28, 2026

US Dollar: Fed hike odds and asymmetric risks – DBS

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that the Dollar is trading on diverging themes versus Developed Market and Asia-ex Japan currencies, with Fed expectations central. Futures are pricing a 38% chance of a surprise rate hike at Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting. Wee highlights that USD bulls could be disappointed if the Fed stays on hold and ends forward guidance. Fed pricing drives Dollar performance "The FX market ran different themes against Developed Market and Asia-ex Japan currencies overnight, balancing monetary policy in the former and oil price relief in the latter." "The futures market is not ruling out a surprise hike at Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting, which it has priced in at a 38% probability." "The DXY basket of currencies will likely depreciate if and only if this happens." "All said, Warsh could disappoint USD bulls as well by seeking cover to deliver nothing amid the latest retreat in oil prices and by aiming to end forward guidance to keep rates on hold without signalling a September hike."

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Banking

July 28, 2026

CEE FX: Normalising rates leave room for gains – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes Central and Eastern European (CEE) rate curves have repriced sharply, with more tightening now expected in Czech Republic and Poland and further easing in Hungary. He still sees mispricing versus Taborsky forecasts and expects selected CEE currencies, notably the Polish Zloty (PLN) and Hungarian Forint (HUF), to strengthen, targeting EUR/PLN below 4.300 and EUR/HUF below 358, while seeing EUR/CZK moving above 24.200. Zloty and Forint seen outperforming peers "The region saw a sharp recovery in rates yesterday, although this did not fully carry through to FX. Implied rate paths moved meaningfully, now pricing around 60bp of tightening in the Czech Republic and 40bp in Poland, alongside 50bp of easing in Hungary over an 18-month horizon. In the past two sessions alone, curves have shifted by roughly 15-30bp across the region." "We still see material mispricing versus our forecasts, but market pricing is moving back into a plausible scenario range. We expect this normalisation to continue this week unless the US-Iran conflict re-escalates and oil prices rise further." "Rates and FX have diverged sharply over the past two weeks. The rates rally and the reduced rate-hike premium are not supportive for FX, but given the current gaps and the recent lag in FX versus rates, we still see room for selected currencies to strengthen." "We therefore continue to expect gains in the zloty and forint despite narrower rate differentials, with EUR/PLN moving below 4.300 and EUR/HUF below 358. By contrast, EUR/CZK does not benefit from the same dynamic and has closely tracked rates; we instead see scope for a move above 24.200. We also expect more dovish Czech National Bank comments this week, which could further support EUR/CZK upside."

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Commentary

July 28, 2026

Commodity Talk – Oil, Natgas, Gold, Cocoa

Market Situation Bearish sentiment dominates the commodity market today, reflected by a negative average daily change of -0.41% with only six assets rising. The energy sector is seeing the sharpest decline—Brent crude is down 2.24% today (over 8.4% weekly), and WTI has fallen by 1.96%, driven by increasing hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic agreement. On the opposite pole are agricultural commodities, where coffee is the leader of growth, appreciating by 5.73%, which pushes its valuation to an extreme level of +2.18 standard deviations (Z-score) above the 5-year average. Despite current corrections, industrial and precious metals still maintain historically high valuations, indicated by extreme deviations for copper (+3.06σ), gold (+2.76σ), and aluminum (+2.12σ). In the global context, it is worth noting reports of an expected economic slowdown in India due to the oil shock and stock market turmoil in Asia, which may affect future industrial demand. In the coming days, investor attention should focus on the upcoming Fed meeting and central bank decisions, which will define the further direction of the market. Commodity Price Changes in the Last Month Over the last month, TTF natural gas, coffee, and crude oil gained the most. On the other hand, we have American natural gas and livestock. Source: XTB Oversold and Overbought Commodities From a short-term perspective, cattle is very strongly oversold, reaching nearly 2 standard deviations from the 1-year average. In contrast, TTF natural gas, corn, wheat, and cotton can be treated as slightly overbought. Source: XTB 🛢️ Crude Oil Crude oil prices continue strong declines in response to reports of a halt in mutual attacks and attempts to engage in diplomatic talks between the US and Iran. Iran is set to discuss with Oman the resumption of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. During the last session, only one tanker passed through Hormuz, while through Bab el-Mandab, there is a rebound to 7 tankers (compared to an average of 10 tankers in recent months). The price of Brent crude fell to around $87 for the September contract, while the October contract is trading below $84. WTI crude, in turn, dropped below $81 per barrel. If an agreement with Iran is reached, a significant oversupply, estimated at up to 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2026, will quickly appear on the oil market. Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that earlier IEA forecasts changed virtually from report to report, so everything will depend on the navigability of key straits in the Middle East. Reloading is resuming at the CPC terminal in Kazakhstan after disruptions caused by drone attacks. It is worth noting that the oil and fuel market is also disrupted by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. It is estimated that up to 50% of fuel production capacity in Russia is shut down due to the attacks, leading to domestic supply problems. Global stocks of crude oil and petroleum products increased by 2.5% (by 37.9 million barrels) in the week ended July 17, narrowing the deficit relative to the 5-year average. US crude oil stocks also rose, although the latest reports indicate a further decline in reserves, close to 300 million barrels. According to Citi, the IEA may coordinate further releases of reserves and stocks if the situation does not normalize in the near future. The previous program of releasing 400 million barrels is expected to be completed within 1-2 months. A noticeable acceleration in fuel processing in China is observed, which may be related to the normalization of the situation or the desire to sell fuels (e.g., to Russia) due to high margins. Utilized processing capacities at state refineries increased from approx. 67% at the beginning of July to 75% currently. In private refineries, the increase is from approx. 43% to 48%. Maritime Routes via Iran and JMIC Proposed maritime routes via Iran and JMIC. It is worth remembering that using the Iranian route carries the probability of Iran collecting fees. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Global Oil and Products Stocks Global oil and products stocks have increased recently. Source: BloombergNEF Oil Production and Export in Iran Iran's production has clearly rebounded, but exports remain approximately 3 times lower than pre-war levels. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Oil Price vs. Crack Spread Crude oil is falling, while the crack spread is showing a small rebound and remains near historical highs. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB US Crude Oil Inventories US crude oil inventories are stabilizing. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB 💨 Natural Gas (TTF + Henry Hub) Prices for gas contracts in Europe (TTF) continue to fall, declining by another 3.1% to 56.46 EUR/MWh (64.21 USD/MWh) after an earlier drop at the beginning of the week reaching up to 10% due to optimism surrounding de-escalation in the Middle East. Although gas prices in Europe are falling, an increase in demand in Asia is observed, which may divert supplies from the US to the eastern market, potentially leading to issues with replenishing storage before the winter season. Currently, storage fill is about 55%, compared to a 5-year average of 71%, with a goal of 90% before November 1. Natural gas prices in the US are also falling sharply, which may be a symptom of sentiment regarding the potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is worth remembering that Qatar will not resume LNG supplies at a normal level until at least mid-September, which is why LNG exports from the US will remain high for many weeks to come. A slight cooling in the Midwest region has caused US gas consumption forecasts to decrease. Additionally, strong El Niño suggests that gas consumption during the winter may be lower, indicating that current inventories will be sufficient. Gas production on Monday was 113.1 bcfd, an increase of 3.7% y/y, while demand was 81.4 bcfd, an increase of 2.7%. LNG exports were 18.1 bcfd. EIA raised the forecast for average gas production to 111.2 bcfd at the beginning of July. Natural Gas Demand Gas demand remains above the 5-year average during the seasonal peak consumption period. Gas consumption for electricity production should fall in the coming weeks. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Comparative Gas Stocks Comparative stocks have stopped increasing but remain at relatively high levels. Nevertheless, this potentially indicates an undervaluation of gas prices. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Natural Gas Price Seasonality The current price behavior is completely contrary to short-term and long-term seasonality. It is worth remembering that the next two roll-overs will be relatively flat. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Temperature Forecasts Although temperatures have been slightly lower than previously forecasted recently, a return to higher temperatures is expected at the beginning of August. Source: NOAA Technical Analysis of Gas Prices The price finally breaks out of the consolidation downwards and tests the last support at the 78.6 retracement. Last year, the downward wave in the summer period ended only in the second half of August. A similar range would currently indicate 2.5 USD/MMBTU. Source: xStation5 🟡 Gold Gold prices fell below $4050 per ounce ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are pricing in slightly over 33% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike. At the same time, a full rate hike is priced in for September. A potential rate increase or hawkish rhetoric from the Fed could strengthen bond yields and the dollar's exchange rate, posing a risk of breaking the support at $4,000 per ounce and capital outflow from ETF funds. Gold has remained above $4,000 per ounce since the end of June thanks to dip buying and steady demand from central banks. A temporary pause in the fighting in the Middle East has eased concerns about further inflation growth. Gold Seasonality Gold should currently be in the phase of a seasonal rebound start. Nevertheless, we have been observing consolidation for about a month after sharp declines. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Fed Interest Rate Expectations The effective rate is expected to be 4.2% by June next year, which would mean two full rate hikes from the current level. Gold is well priced relative to these expectations. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gold Purchases by ETFs Despite mixed sentiment recently, ETFs are buying gold, and the rebound is already larger than in June. A dovish message from Warsh could push gold back towards $4200 per ounce. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Gold Technical Analysis The price of gold is trying to stay above the 25-period average, following the recent attempt to break out of the descending trend channel. Source: xStation5 🍫 Cocoa Cocoa futures prices have fallen significantly to levels below $5200 per tonne and below £4000 per tonne, representing a decline of 1/3 compared to the previous year. Giants like Lindt, Barry Callebaut, and Nestlé have reported a drop in chocolate sales volume (e.g., Lindt down 7.5% in H1) due to high prices of finished products. Sales in traditional markets continue to look weak, but a clear improvement is observed in Asia. Corporations are focusing on innovation and social media trends (e.g., Dubai-style chocolate) to regain customers. However, it is worth noting that the amount of cocoa itself in finished products is simultaneously decreasing. Favorable weather conditions in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria are supporting preparations for the main harvests beginning at the turn of August and September. Cocoa deliveries to ports in Côte d'Ivoire since the start of the season reached 2.11 million tonnes compared to 1.75 million tonnes a year earlier. The CCC regulator in Côte d'Ivoire has begun a campaign to deliver fertilizers and seedlings to farmers across an area of 1.5 million hectares. Preliminary expectations for the 26/27 season indicate cocoa production in Côte d'Ivoire at 1.8 million tonnes, which would be a decrease of nearly 20% compared to the current production level. Transgraph Consulting indicates that the cocoa market surplus in 26/27 will shrink to just 80 thousand tonnes from over 400 thousand tonnes in the current season, which is mainly related to falling production. Cocoa Stocks on Exchanges The real picture of the market is currently shown by the strong increase in cocoa stocks on exchanges, despite the fact that seasonally we should already be observing a slight decrease, as we are 2 months before the start of the next harvest season. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Speculator Positions in the Cocoa Market In recent weeks, speculators have reduced a lot of short positions. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Cocoa Price Technical Analysis The price of cocoa has experienced a sharp drop to $5150 per tonne and is holding at the support related to the 38.2 retracement of the last upward wave and at the range of the largest correction in the current upward trend. However, the price is below the 25-period average and below the 250-period average. The key support is the area around 4700 at the 50.0 retracement. Source: xStation5

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Energies

July 28, 2026

Chart of The Day – Who suffers from the oil price drop?

The decline in oil and gas prices, resulting from the cessation of attacks between the USA and Iran, has brought the Norwegian krone almost to the bottom of the currency rankings for this week (lower is only the Bolivian bolivar, whose quotes we do not regularly analyse). Halt of attacks Bombardments have ceased, partly due to depleting targets and ammunition stocks. On Sunday, the US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, confirmed this information. On the same day, Donald Trump said that talks with Iran are ongoing. In the event of failure, the USA is to "return to what it was doing." Figure 1: Oil Return 50 Days Before and 200 Days After the Event Source: XTB Research, 28.07.2026 The situation is presented slightly differently by the Iranian MFA spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, who claims that there is currently no direct dialogue between officials from Iran and the USA. Tehran, however, has declared that it will halt retaliation "as long as the USA maintains the pause." He also confirmed that it is conducting talks with Oman, a key mediator in the entire conflict. Their goal is to establish "mechanisms regarding maritime traffic" in the Strait of Hormuz. No fundamental changes The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed (according to Kpler data, ship traffic is limited to a maximum of a dozen or so daily, compared to approx. 80-140 in standard conditions), and the parties remain far from an agreement on uranium enrichment. Moreover, last week, Yemeni Houthis joined the fight, carrying out attacks on Saudi Aramco's oil infrastructure and threatening attacks on tankers in Bab al-Mandab, which restricts traffic in the key strait in the south of the Arabian Peninsula. All options on the table? The resumption of attacks could result in a rapid return of Brent crude oil prices to around 100 dollars per barrel. Any signs of progress in negotiation talks, in turn, could lead to a gradual price drop, although it seems that the market is no longer paying as much attention to these communications, approaching Donald Trump's chaotic communication with some distance. Fundamental is the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. If we observe an improvement in this regard, oil prices may continue to move south. At the moment, however, there are no clear reasons for optimism in this area. Macroeconomic data At 9:30 PM today, we are awaiting the publication of the API report on the change in oil inventories. From Norway, we will receive two significant readings this week in the form of June retail sales (Wednesday) and July unemployment rate (Friday). We do not suspect that they will significantly translate into volatility in the EURNOK pair. This, in the context of local factors, may only be enlivened by the publication of July inflation data, which is scheduled for August 10. A higher-than-expected reading may cause the Norges Bank meeting taking place 3 days later (August 13) to be exceptionally closely watched by investors. The market-implied probability of an August hike is already reaching over 40%. Technical analysis Figure 2: EURNOK (05.02.2026 - 28.07.2026) Source: xStation, 28.07.2026 After a dynamic June increase, it is time for July declines. The rate slowed down around 10.85, slightly above the 78.6% level on the Fibonacci grid. It is currently at the 11.03 level, testing key resistance points in the form of the 50-day moving average and the 50 Fibo retracement. Not much higher (approx. 11.05) runs the next barrier in the form of the 100-day average. An effective breakout to the upside from the range may open the way to a continuation of increases and a return towards the June peaks. This setup is supported by the lower indicators. RSI returned to a neutral level (49.4), leaving room for possible increases, while MACD clearly indicates that the supply pressure present in recent weeks has slowed down significantly, which can be seen in the systematically shrinking histogram tending towards the zero line.

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Cryptocurrencies

July 28, 2026

Iron Ore Falls on Signs of Ample Supply

Iron ore futures dropped toward CNY 740 per ton, hovering near three-week lows as evidence of abundant global supply continued to pressure prices. Imported iron ore inventories at Chinese ports remained high, while stockpiles at Chinese steel mills climbed 8% last week. Data also showed that Western Australia’s Pilbara Ports, the world’s largest iron ore export hub, handled more than 800 million tons of cargo during the 2025-2026 financial year, with iron ore shipments totaling about 759.4 million tons. That surpassed the previous record of 775.7 million tons set in the 2024-2025 financial year. Meanwhile, Port Hedland handled 580.4 million tons of cargo over the same period, while Dampier processed 178.3 million tons. On the demand side, investors are awaiting updates from the Politburo meeting in Beijing for potential stimulus measures that could provide support to the Chinese economy.

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Markets

July 28, 2026

The US100 confirms yesterday’s bearish scenarino. What’s next ?

The US100 is confirming the bearish scenario that emerged the previous day – the index has broken down from its consolidation range, breaching the support at the 100-day EMA and falling below the 28,000-point level, which technically paves the way for a potentially deeper correction. Source: xStation Monday’s trading session and the chip sell-off Monday’s trading session on Wall Street saw most stock market indices fall, despite a lull in the conflict in the Middle East. The US100 futures contract closed the day down 1 per cent, dragged down by a sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks. Nvidia lost around 5 per cent, which served as the immediate trigger for a much more severe market shake-up in Asia the following day, i.e. today. The crash on the Kospi and the reaction in the futures market On Tuesday morning, South Korea’s Kospi index fell by as much as 10 per cent, triggering two ‘sidecar’ trading halts on both the main index and the technology-focused Kosdaq, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics losing around 10–12 per cent respectively. The panic stemmed from concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom and growing competition from Chinese memory manufacturers, which had a direct impact on Nasdaq 100 futures, which at their lowest point fell by as much as around 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 3.95 per cent lower, whilst China’s CSI 300 lost 2.83 per cent, confirming the regional – rather than isolated – nature of the sell-off in the technology sector. Technical chart following a break below The US100 daily chart shows a clear deterioration in the structure – following a series of unsuccessful attempts to retest the EMA50 (29,111) last week, the index broke through the EMA100 support level (28,299) and slumped to 27,922, which is well below the lower boundary of the previous consolidation zone. The latest red candle is long and lacks a significant lower shadow, confirming the continuation of the pattern already evident on Friday – supply is dominating with no signs of immediate buying at lower levels, whilst the volume accompanying the decline remains relatively high compared to previous consolidation sessions. The RSI has fallen to 35.5, approaching the oversold zone, although it is still not generating a clear reversal signal. If the downtrend persists, the 200-day EMA – which has not been tested since April – could be another interesting technical level to watch. Key risk factors for this week The market is entering the most important week of July with heightened nervousness, as, in addition to the crash in Korea, there are three other significant catalysts on the horizon. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday – the market is pricing in a hold on interest rates, but futures are already indicating a roughly 38 per cent chance of a rate rise in September, which, with the chip sector weakening, is further weighing on the valuations of growth stocks. Mega-cap results – Microsoft and Meta are due to report on Wednesday evening, whilst Amazon and Apple will report on Thursday; the key factor will be the scale of further growth in the hyperscalers’ capital expenditure on AI. The consumer confidence report and the results from Coca-Cola, UPS, Corning and Boeing, due to be published today before the US market opens, will provide further macroeconomic context. Geopolitical situation – Brent crude prices remain below US$90 per barrel thanks to a lull in the US-Iran conflict, whilst the yield on 10-year US government bonds has fallen back to around 4.65 per cent, which in theory should be supportive of the equity market, were it not for the sell-off in the chip sector.

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Markets

July 28, 2026

Economic Calendar: PayPal, Visa and Coca-Cola to overshadow macro data

The start of the week was dominated by news from the Middle East. However, focus is now likely to shift towards corporate earnings and central bank meetings. Upcoming reports include Microsoft and Meta (both Wednesday AMC), as well as Apple and Amazon (both Thursday AMC). In the meantime, interest rate decisions will be made by the Fed (Wednesday) and the BoE (Thursday). The week will conclude with the BoJ meeting (Thursday night into Friday), July inflation data from European countries (Thursday/Friday), and the June PCE inflation reading from the US (Thursday). We do not anticipate any changes in interest rates from any of the banks. All are expected, however, to maintain a hawkish rhetoric, guiding markets toward a hike at the subsequent meeting (which currently constitutes the base case scenario for each bank). Today remains somewhat quieter. Prior to the market open, we await publications from PayPal, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, Corning, S&P and Unilever. Following the close, quarterly reports will be released by Visa, Bloom Energy, Seagate, Waste Management, KLA and Ford. From our perspective, significant macroeconomic data points will be few. We will focus solely on the API report on crude oil inventory changes, scheduled for 9:30 PM. 🌏 Key macroeconomic publications Monday Germany Despite persistent uncertainty in the Persian Gulf region, the Ifo business climate index in Germany rose to 86.6, while business expectations climbed to 86.7. This improvement results not only from stronger demand but also from the resolution of key supply chain bottlenecks. The data is largely consistent with recent PMI indicators, which suggest a degree of economic recovery, particularly within the industrial sector. Conversely, no improvement was noted in the assessment of the current situation. United States Durable goods orders increased by 0.3% month-on-month in June, considerably slower than the 2.5% anticipated. Markets had hoped for a more pronounced rebound following May's 4% decline. The weaker reading is primarily due to softer demand in the transport sector. Core capital goods orders proved resilient, which somewhat stabilised sentiment. Furthermore, increased spending on AI-related components was clearly evident; the primary drivers of the June rebound were computers and electronic equipment (+3.1% m/m). Performance was also respectable in base metals (+1.1% m/m) as well as electrical equipment and appliances (+0.9% m/m). Tuesday Australia At the Anika Foundation meeting in Sydney, Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, delivered a speech. She noted that while core inflation is rising largely in line with the RBA's May projections, it remains at an unacceptably high level. Further softening of domestic demand and a cooling of the labour market will likely be necessary. For the market, such communications were deemed insufficient. Valuations for rate hikes have declined, and the next move upward is no longer fully priced in. 📆 Macroeconomic calendar Tuesday United States: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (July)Time: 3:00 PMPrevious: 91.2Consensus: 92.4 Time: 3:00 PM Previous: 91.2 Consensus: 92.4 API report on crude oil inventory changesTime: 9:30 PMPrevious: +2.6MConsensus: -1.5M Time: 9:30 PM Previous: +2.6M Consensus: -1.5M Thursday Australia: CPI inflation (Q2)Time: 2:30 AMPrevious: 4.1%Consensus: 4.1% Time: 2:30 AM Previous: 4.1% Consensus: 4.1% 🗂️ Earnings releases Boeing ($BA.US) – Before Market Open (BMO) SNDL ($SNDL.US) – Before Market Open (BMO) PayPal ($PYPL.US) – Before Market Open (BMO) Coca-Cola ($KO.US) – Before Market Open (BMO) Royal Caribbean ($RCL.US) – Before Market Open (BMO) UPS ($UPS.US) – Before Market Open (BMO) Corning ($GLW.US) – Before Market Open (BMO) Ford ($F.US) – After Market Close (AMC) Tilray ($TLRY.US) – After Market Close (AMC) Visa ($V.US) – After Market Close (AMC) Bloom Energy ($BE.US) – After Market Close (AMC) EA ($EA.US) – After Market Close (AMC) Seagate ($STX.US) – After Market Close (AMC) 3 markets to watch Crude oil: The beginning of the week was dominated by reports of a halt in hostilities between the US and Iran, which resulted in significant price declines for key energy commodities. In recent hours, we have received information regarding discussions between Iran and Oman, a pivotal mediator in the conflict. Their objective is to establish "maritime traffic mechanisms" within the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the Strait effectively remains closed (according to Kpler data, vessel traffic is restricted to a maximum of a dozen or so daily, compared with approximately 80 to 140 under standard conditions). US500: The index concluded Monday nearly unchanged. On one hand, it was supported by lower oil prices, while on the other, it was weighed down by poor performance within the semiconductor sector. Prior to the US market open, several significant publications from corporate giants (Boeing, PayPal and Coca-Cola) are expected. EURUSD: The pair remains highly sensitive to shifts in market sentiment. After Monday's opening, it breached the 1.141 level, but is currently oscillating around 1.137. Key to its future trajectory will be Wednesday's conference by Chair Warsh.

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Commentary

July 28, 2026

Gold sticks to intraday losses below $4,050 as focus remains on FOMC meeting

Gold slides below $4,050 during the Asian session on Tuesday, filling the weekly bullish gap. Geopolitical risks remain in play, underpinning the USD and exerting pressure on the bullion. The downside seems cushioned as USD bulls opt to wait for the crucial FOMC policy meeting. Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the Asian session on Tuesday and currently trades just below $4,050, down 0.85% for the day. This follows the previous day's failure to find acceptance above the $4,100 mark and suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion remains to the downside. However, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action could help limit the downside as the focus remains on the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting. Investors will look for cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path, which will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Heading into the key central bank event risk, traders pared Fed rate-hike bets amid renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy to end a five-month-old conflict, which led to the overnight slump in oil prices and eased inflation fears. In fact, the US paused its bombing campaign against Iran following roughly two weeks of strikes. Moreover, US President Donald Trump said on Monday the US was having good talks with Iran and that there was a chance of a resolution. This raised hopes of pulling the US and Iran back to the negotiating table, and normalizing of Middle East energy flows. Trump, however,  warned that US strikes would resume if the negotiations failed to deliver. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported drone attacks on Monday, keeping a lid on the optimism. Adding to this, concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies support oil prices and the safe-haven USD. The spotlight shifted to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia and attacked Saudi oil installations along the coast of the Red Sea. Moreover, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. The fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of USD bulls, which backs the case for further downside for Gold. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling and acceptance below the $4,000 psychological mark before placing fresh bearish bets on the XAU/USD pair. XAU/USD daily chart Gold seems vulnerable to test $4,000 amid bearish technical setup Against the backdrop of the recent breakdown below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the range-bound price action since June 19 might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Meanwhile, momentum indicators are mixed. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line near 45, hinting at lacklustre buying conviction, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns higher in positive territory. This suggests that any rebounds are still corrective within a broader downside context as long as Gold holds under the long-term average. Nevertheless, the precious metal looks vulnerable to further slippage unless buyers quickly defend the recent lows around the psychological $4,000 handle. On the topside, the top boundary of the trading range near the $4,200 mark is the key resistance to beat. A daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the broader bearish bias and open the door to a more sustainable advance to the 200-day SMA at $4,493.65.

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Markets

July 28, 2026

XAG/USD falls to near $57.50 despite easing Fed hike bets

Silver price may gain support as US-Iran peace talks lower oil costs and dampen rate-hike fears. Donald Trump warned military strikes against Iran could resume if diplomatic negotiations collapse. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this week, with possible hikes delayed to September. Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after registering nearly 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around $57.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The non-yielding white metal may regain ground as the prospect of de-escalation sends oil prices lower, easing market concerns over rising inflation and further interest rate hikes. US President Donald Trump indicated that the US is engaged in "good talks" with Iran to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. However, Trump also cautioned that the US is prepared to resume military strikes if negotiations collapse. The statement comes after the US suspended attacks late Friday following nearly two weeks of hostilities, with Tehran simultaneously halting retaliatory strikes against US bases in neighboring countries. Washington suspended its 13-night strike campaign over the weekend, leading to three consecutive days without attacks. Tehran’s foreign ministry countered that no direct negotiations with the US are taking place, noting its only active dialogue is with Oman regarding the future of the Strait. Traders are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision this week, where central bank officials are widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. While lingering inflationary pressures have led a minority of traders to speculate on an immediate rate increase, the prevailing consensus suggests that any potential hike would likely be deferred until September.

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Markets

July 28, 2026

Coffee Prices Sharply Higher as Brazil’s Coffee Harvest is Delayed

September arabica coffee (KCU26) on Monday closed up +10.75 (+3.43%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed up +42 (+1.12%). Coffee prices settled sharply higher on Monday amid concern that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the country’s coffee harvest and tighten global supplies.  On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that 32.4 mm of rain, or 2700% of the historical average, fell in the week ended July 26 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supportive of coffee prices.  The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 47.3% complete as of July 17, behind the year-earlier pace of 59%.  On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%.  Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows due to the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y.  World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags.  On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y. Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday, although inventories were mildly below that level at 4,228 lots on Monday.  By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags on Monday. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.  Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jun) rose by +7.3% y/y to 1.05 MMT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

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Markets

July 28, 2026

Cocoa Prices Slump on Abundant Global Supplies

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) on Monday closed down -276 (-5.13%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed down -188 (-4.68%). Cocoa prices gave up an early advance today and sold off sharply to 3-week lows on signs of larger global cocoa supplies.  Monday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 2.11 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through July 26, 2026), up +21% from the same period a year ago.  Also, Bloomberg reported on July 16 that Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT.  Rising cocoa inventories are bearish for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2-year high of 3,361,752 bags on Monday. Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2.  On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years.  However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears. Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y. Cocoa prices have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which begins in September.  However, a senior manager at Expana said Thursday that the most recent surveys show a substantial improvement in cocoa pod counts compared with the early surveys.  Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.  The outlook for a smaller global cocoa surplus is supportive of cocoa prices.  Last Thursday, Transgraph Consulting forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.  For its part, StoneX on April 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 MT from a January forecast of 267,000 MT, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño.  Cocoa prices also have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.  The outlook for smaller cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, is supportive of prices.  Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. 

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Markets

July 28, 2026

Slumping Crude Oil Prices Weigh on Sugar Prices

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) on Monday closed down -0.19 (-1.29%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) closed down -2.40 (-0.52%). Sugar prices fell to 1-week lows on Monday and settled lower amid the plunge in crude oil prices.  WTI crude oil (CLU26) tumbled more than -7% on Monday, which undercuts ethanol prices and may encourage sugar mills worldwide to divert less cane crushing toward ethanol production than sugar, thus boosting sugar supplies.  Sugar prices have recently been undercut amid the prospects of higher Indian sugar output as monsoon rains improve.  On Monday, India’s Meteorological Department reported that India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 16% below normal as of July 27, a substantial improvement from 42% below normal on June 30.  India’s Earth Science Ministry initially warned that this year’s monsoon in India could be the weakest in 11 years.  India’s monsoon season runs from June through September.  Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices.  The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions.  On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.  India’s weather office recently lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season last Friday to 90% of the long-term average, down from a forecast of 92% issued in April.  As a bullish factor, Unica reported on June 22 that 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production through May is 6.838 MMT, down -2.0% y/y as millers ramped up ethanol production. The percent of sugarcane used for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills dropped to 41.42% from 50.09% as cane crushing for ethanol production rose to 58.38% from 49.91% last year.  Also, sugar trader Czarnikow on June 11 cut its global 2026/27 sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of -100,000 MT, as Brazil’s sugar mills produce more ethanol than sugar amid the recent surge in crude oil prices. On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, forecast that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters.  On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 India sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT.  ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT.  India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. On May 18, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate.  ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  For 2026/27, however, ISO forecasts that global sugar production will fall by -1.15% y/y to 180 MMT, and that there will be a global sugar deficit of -262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.  For 2026/27, StoneX on May 20 forecast a deficit of -550,000 MT, while Covrig Analytics cut its surplus forecast to 100,000 MT from a May estimate of 380,000 MT. The USDA, in its biannual report released in May, projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall by 6.5% y/y to 184.854 MMT from a record 186.056 MMT in 2025/26.  Global 2026/27 human sugar consumption is expected to increase +0.4% y/y to a record 179.991 MMT.  The USDA also forecast that 2026/27 global sugar ending stocks would increase by 2.0% y/y to 44.410 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production would fall by -3.0% y/y to 42.5 MMT.  FAS predicted that India’s 2026/27 sugar production would increase by +12% y/y to 33.6 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2026/76 sugar production will fall by -15.6% y/y to 9.5 MMT.

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Energies

July 27, 2026

Chip War Weighs on Wall Street as Oil Plunges After US–Iran Ceasefire

Stock Market Little trace remains on Wall Street of the initial euphoria triggered by news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Key US indices are currently trading in the red. S&P 500 is down about 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 falls nearly 0.7%, while only Dow Jones remains marginally in positive territory. Pressure is focused primarily on the semiconductor sector and companies tied to the memory market. Micron falls over 5.5%, Sandisk drops nearly 12%, and Nvidia drops over 5%. Meanwhile, hyperscalers are faring somewhat better, posting gains today. The deterioration in sentiment was driven by reports on China's progress in developing its own semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which could threaten the position of European industry leader ASML in the future. Reports indicate that Beijing is developing domestic DUV (Deep Ultraviolet Lithography) equipment, a key technology used to produce advanced chips. This news heightened investor concerns over growing competition in the semiconductor sector and its potential impact on the future results of Western manufacturers. Furthermore, tech tensions between the US and China were underscored by Donald Trump's statement regarding AI competition: "They are looking at us, we are looking at them." These words were interpreted as a sign that the strategic battle for dominance in AI and key technologies remains one of the market's top themes. Consequently, the AI and semiconductor segment took the hardest hit—a sector that served as a main growth driver on Wall Street in recent years. Investors worry that the development of China's chip industry could limit the long-term advantage of American and European technology firms. The session in the Old Continent ended in a decidedly better mood. European equity sentiment was buoyed primarily by the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf, which eased fears of further escalation and energy price pressures. The UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, as did France's CAC 40. Germany's DAX rose over 1.3%, while Spain's IBEX 35 closed the day up 0.8%. 🌐 Geopolitics & Macroeconomics Unquestionably, the main catalyst driving market events in the first half of the day was the cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump stated that the US decided to halt further strikes against Iran following a request from mediating nations asking to give negotiations another chance. The US President indicated that intensive talks with Iran are currently underway, though he noted that time to achieve a breakthrough is limited. Simultaneously, Trump emphasized that if an agreement is not reached, the US is prepared to return to decisive military action. For markets, this primarily brings a reduction in short-term pressure related to conflict escalation risks and potential energy price surges. Lower oil prices ease fears of renewed inflation, serving as a positive driver for risk assets and influencing expectations for future Federal Reserve decisions. At the same time, markets remain cautious as the current ceasefire does not yet signal a lasting resolution to the conflict. Trump's rhetoric indicates this is merely a temporary pause for negotiations rather than a definitive end to military action. Should talks fail, a resurgence of Middle East tensions could once again translate into rising oil prices and worsening sentiment across global financial markets. Currently, markets are focused on whether diplomatic efforts will lead to a lasting agreement between the US and Iran. Maintaining the ceasefire would serve as a tailwind for market sentiment by ensuring lower geopolitical risk, less pressure on energy prices, and reduced concerns over the conflict's impact on the global economy. 🛢️ Commodities Ceasefire news was immediately reflected in the oil market, where crude prices plunged sharply due to reduced fears of further escalation in the Middle East and potential global energy supply disruptions. A decline in the geopolitical risk premium triggered a clear sell-off in Brent crude, which reacted to prospects of easing tensions between Washington and Tehran. 🪙 Precious Metals A cautiously balanced optimism prevails in the precious metals market. Gold futures are up about 0.5%, approaching the $4,100 level. Silver futures gain 0.7%, hovering around $58. 🪙 Cryptocurrencies Positive sentiment is also present in the digital assets market. Bitcoin gains about 0.3%, testing the $65,000 level. Ethereum rises nearly 1%, trading around $1,940.

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Markets

July 27, 2026

Gold struggles below $4,100 as US Dollar rebounds, Fed decision looms

Gold opens with a bullish gap but trims gains as the US Dollar rebounds and Oil prices stabilize. Traders await the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday and US PCE inflation data on Thursday. XAU/USD stays range-bound between $4,000 and $4,200, hovering near the 21-day SMA. Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday but struggles to build on its early advance as optimism over a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran fades and Oil prices recover from intraday lows. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,073 after briefly climbing above $4,100, up 0.50% on the day. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump is giving negotiations some space while keeping all military options on the table. Tehran also said it would refrain from fresh attacks as long as Washington did the same. Oil prices opened the week sharply lower on hopes that the pause in hostilities could ease supply risks. However, sellers quickly moved to the sidelines as the geopolitical situation remained fluid. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz had not changed and that the strategic waterway remained closed. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $82.70 per barrel, rebounding from an intraday low of $81.28, but remains down more than 7% on the day. Gold’s reaction again shows how the metal has decoupled from its traditional safe-haven role since the US-Iran war began, with price action driven largely by the inflationary impact of higher Oil prices and their implications for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. The Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday is the key risk event this week, alongside the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Thursday. The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, but traders still price in a 33% chance of a hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a rate increase in September stands near 79%. The possibility of higher US interest rates remains a major headwind for the non-yielding metal, while the US Dollar continues to benefit from hawkish Fed expectations and the fragile Middle East situation. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.50, recovering from an intraday low of 101.12. Strategists at OCBC note that “a hold accompanied by hawkish guidance would likely push expected rate hikes further out the curve without materially altering the roughly 55 [bps] of cumulative tightening priced in through mid-2027.” In their view, “in this scenario, the USD should remain supported.” By contrast, OCBC cautions that “a decision to leave rates unchanged with little explanation could be interpreted as dovish and create confusion about the Fed's reaction function,” a misstep that “risks lifting long-end inflation breakevens, a development that would be negative for the USD.” Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates near 21-day SMA From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains rangebound between $4,000 and $4,200, with prices fluctuating around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,068. The near-term outlook is neutral, although the broader bias stays bearish as the metal trades below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $4,221 and $4,469, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 47, leaning neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting that downside momentum is limited even as the broader structure remains capped by overhead averages. On the upside, the $4,200 psychological mark and the 50-day SMA at $4,221 form the initial resistance zone. A decisive break above this area could open the door toward the 100-day SMA at $4,468. Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,069, followed by the $4,000 level. A daily close below this level would expose deeper retracement, while holding above it would keep XAU/USD in a range, with bulls needing a clear move through $4,222 to regain control.

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Markets

July 27, 2026

Nasdaq-100 under pressure after chip sell-off

Semiconductor weakness weighs on Nasdaq-100 futures Nasdaq-100 (US100) futures remain under pressure today following reports about China’s progress in developing its own semiconductor manufacturing technology. The index opened higher, supported by news of a pause in military operations between the US and Iran, but sentiment deteriorated as the session progressed and prices moved into negative territory. The strongest pressure has been visible across the semiconductor sector, with ASML, Nvidia and other chip-related companies among the biggest decliners. The weaker sentiment was triggered by reports that China is making progress in developing advanced DUV lithography machines, which could eventually challenge the current advantage of leading industry players and increase competition in the semiconductor market. At the same time, investors are taking profits in the artificial intelligence segment, with Nvidia also coming under pressure. The market is increasingly focused not only on the pace of AI adoption, but also on the scale of investment required to sustain the current growth trajectory. Rising spending on data centres and AI infrastructure is raising questions over whether the size of these investments will translate into sufficiently strong returns in the future. Today’s session highlights growing market sensitivity to developments in the semiconductor sector. The industry remains one of the key pillars of the artificial intelligence narrative, meaning any information related to technological competition, margin pressure or future investment returns can quickly impact the valuations of major companies and the broader index. Source: xStation5

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Cryptocurrencies

July 27, 2026

Ethereum Nears $2,000

Spot Ethereum is currently losing 0.3% today, after having tested the vicinity of $2,000 level, a 2-month high. Following the US market opening, the asset began to pull back, though it remains near the $2,000 level. The price of Ethereum was rising today alongside a weakening dollar. Looking through the lens of majors in the crypto market, Ethereum was one of the strongest cryptocurrencies today, approaching the $2,000 level. Ethereum is potentially breaking out of a downtrend today that has been visible in the market since September 2025. Over the course of one month, we are seeing an increase of almost 25%. At the same time, Bitcoin is gaining about 10%. Monthly changes in Ethereum. July may be the strongest month in exactly one year. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB 1. Main Growth Factors Structural Supply Pressure (Supply Squeeze): The ETH staking ratio has reached a record high of 34%. The locking up of such a large portion of the supply, combined with increasing gas fee burning in Layer 2 and DeFi networks and declining reserves on spot exchanges, significantly restricts market liquidity on the sell side. Capital Return to ETFs: Following a weaker period at the turn of June and July, US spot ETH and BTC ETFs recorded positive net flows in the second half of the month. Geopolitical De-escalation and Short Squeeze: A temporary halt in mutual attacks between the US and Iran improved global risk appetite. This triggered a cascade of short position liquidations in the cryptocurrency market valued at over $160 million within 24 hours. Cumulative 20-day purchases of ETH ETFs have risen above $300 million. They could potentially be the highest in the near future since November 2025. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB 2. Key Market Catalyst: Fed Decision (July 28–29, 2026) Despite strong fundamentals, the near-term direction of the ETH price depends on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting. Fed Scenario: No rate change (68.5%). Potential breakout of the $2,000 level, but with a risk of failing to maintain above this resistance without new volume and new drivers for the crypto market. Fed Scenario: 25 bps hike (31.5%). Profit-taking and an immediate price correction. This scenario could partially materialize if Kevin Warsh signals that hikes are coming. Fed Scenario: Rate cut (unlikely scenario). Strong bullish momentum with a technical target in the area of the May highs at $2,400 (+20%). However, this scenario could partially materialize if Kevin Warsh is dovish during the conference. 3. Risk Factors Institutional Sentiment Volatility: Despite weekly net inflows into ETFs, the end of last week brought sudden outflows, both for BTC and ETH (over $465 million from BTC ETFs alone in two days), indicating that institutional investors are still quickly taking profits before macroeconomic events. EU and US Regulatory Background: Work on the US Clarity Act is being delayed due to political disputes in Congress, which introduces additional legal uncertainty. Summary Ethereum is at a key inflection point. If investors manage to sustainably break the psychological barrier of $2,000 with the support of a dovish message from the Fed, the technical target of the uptrend setup is at $2,400 (around the 23.6 retracement). A hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve, however, could trigger a quick pullback towards recent supports. Source: xStation Crypto assets are highly volatile and carry substantial risk. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The 23.6% retracement metric is derived from Fibonacci retracement, a technical analysis tool that uses horizontal lines to indicate potential support or resistance levels based on key percentage levels calculated from the Fibonacci sequence. More about Fibo.

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Earnings

July 27, 2026

European TTF gas prices fall by 7.5%

The suspension of mutual attacks by the US and Iran is causing energy commodity prices to fall Natural gas prices in Europe (the Dutch TTF benchmark) recorded a sharp decline on Monday. The nearest expiring contract lost as much as 8.5%, dropping for a moment below 58 EUR/MWh. Last week, the price closed several times above 60 EUR/MWh. Although daily highs in March were higher, at the end of last week we saw the highest close since 2023. Is market optimism justified? In the short term, the price drop brings relief, but long-term market fundamentals require great caution: Temporary de-escalation: The suspension of fighting gave the market a breather and reduced concerns about an immediate interruption of supplies from the Persian Gulf. Direction of US LNG: Price differences make shipping LNG from the US to Europe currently more profitable than to Asia, which may support supplies to the Old Continent. Prices still at a high level: Despite Monday's drop, gas in Europe is still more than 80% more expensive than before the outbreak of the conflict in February and 100% higher compared to the beginning of the year. Low storage levels: European gas storage levels are currently at just ~55%, compared to a 5-year average of ~71%. Drop in LNG imports: The 30-day average volume of LNG imports to Europe is as much as 23% lower than the 5-year average. Supplier caution: QatarEnergy is offering to sub-charter its vessels until the end of October, which suggests there is no rush to restore full traffic in the Persian Gulf. Storage filling in Europe is 55%, very similar to 2021, when prices in September reached 100 EUR/MWh. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Is there a risk of a return to 100 EUR/MWh? The risk of another sharp price increase (including testing higher price levels) remains very high. Storage filling is not accelerating, and the prospects for additional imports remain limited. Fragility of the ceasefire: The current decline is due to the suspension of attacks, not a lasting peace agreement. As Citigroup analysts point out, the market is extremely sensitive and individual headlines can immediately reverse the trend. Race against time before winter: The slow pace of filling storage (55%) combined with logistical difficulties creates a risk that Europe will not manage to rebuild stocks before the heating season. Higher summer consumption and competition with Asia: Heat waves in Europe and Asia increase demand for energy (air conditioning), which intensifies competition for available LNG cargoes on the spot market. Current gas price behavior is very similar to what happened in 2021, when they reached 100 EUR/MWh in September. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP Gas prices are key to the European economy Although gas consumption increases extremely during the winter season and the raw material is used to the greatest extent for heating then, a large part of European industry is based on gas. This causes a significant increase in costs and a limitation of competitiveness (in the field of petrochemistry or also metal refining). Consequently, the terms of trade for the euro are almost 100% correlated with the gas price, which leads to large changes in EURUSD. TTF and EURUSD since 2025. It is worth noting that such levels in 2025 gave us EURUSD very close to parity. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB In the shorter term, a significant correlation can be seen. If gas were to fall to around 40 EUR/MWh, it would give a chance for EURUSD to be around 1.18. Source: xStation5 TTF is undergoing a correction today, stopping near the 23.6 retracement. Key support is at 52 EUR/MWh. Source: xStation5

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Commentary

July 27, 2026

Trade of The Day – US100

Facts: RSI [14] indicates a level of around 44. Williams %R [15] indicates a level of -73. Price defended the level around 28,300 (EMA100 average). Recommendation: Long position (buy) on US100 at the market price. Target price (Take Profit, TP): 31,750 Stop Loss (SL): 27,750 US100 (D1) Source: xStation5 OPINION : The price of the contract on Wall Street’s main technology index has been moving within a descending channel over the past 2 months. Strong resistance at the EMA100 average, combined with the RSI and Williams indicators, creates favorable conditions for an upward corrective move. Methodology and assumptions: The recommendation is based on technical analysis of the chart, in particular EMA averages and Fibonacci levels. The target level was determined based on Fibonacci levels. The protective stop-loss order was set based on a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and on a Fibonacci level.

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Commentary

July 27, 2026

Chart of The Day – US100

Today’s trading in the US100 is getting off to a start in a distinctly risk-on mood, driven primarily by a rebound in the oil market and statements from the US and Iran regarding a mutual pause in military attacks. US100 futures are up by around 1.37% on Monday, trading at 28,693 points, making them the strongest of the major US stock indices in this session, outperforming even the S&P 500 (+0.91%) and the Dow Jones. This move represents an attempt to rebound after two weeks of declines, during which the technology index lost 2.1% last week, whilst falling US bond yields (10-year yields down by 4–5 basis points to 4.63%) are further easing the pressure on growth companies, which are particularly sensitive to the cost of capital. Investor optimism is, however, selective and fragile, as the geopolitical de-escalation remains merely declarative rather than confirmed by actual data – ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains negligible, and the Houthis are continuing their attacks on Saudi Aramco’s infrastructure. In the background, the market is awaiting the Fed’s decision on Wednesday (28–29 July), with the market pricing in a 30–38 per cent chance of a rate rise despite earlier expectations of cuts; this represents a real risk factor for the highly valued technology sector, regardless of the temporary support provided by lower energy prices. In addition, this week investors will be keeping an eye on the results of four companies from the Mag7 group and developments regarding Trump’s new wave of tariffs, which experts are already describing as a structural – rather than a temporary – risk factor for global growth. Technical drawing US100 (D1) The US100 daily chart shows the index moving within a clear consolidation phase following a strong uptrend from March to June, with the price having fluctuated for several weeks within a range bounded by the upper Bollinger Band (~30,540) and the support and resistance zone around the EMA100 (28,316) and the EMA50 (29,178). On Friday, the market clearly saw stronger volume alongside a fall in price (a bearish candle marked by the yellow zone on the volume chart), without the formation of a significant lower shadow – this suggests that selling pressure at this level was genuine and was not immediately absorbed by the bulls, which, following unsuccessful attempts to retest the upper levels and the EMA100, may indicate a waning dominance of demand in the short term. The RSI, at 43.2, remains in a neutral, slightly weaker zone, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which is consistent with the index seeking equilibrium following its departure from the upper Bollinger Band and an attempt to stabilise around the EMA50/EMA100. Today’s rebound, driven by geopolitical news (the bullish candle in the top right-hand corner of the chart), partially offsets Friday’s signal of weakness, but with the channel continuing to narrow (as indicated by the trend line on volume in recent sessions), the key factor will be whether buyers can generate volume comparable to Friday’s selling pressure – otherwise, the move may prove to be merely a technical rebound ahead of more fundamental tests in the form of the Fed’s decision, the Mag7 results and a possible resurgence of tensions in the Middle East.

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Commentary

July 27, 2026

The Week Ahead

Key takeaways Geopolitical risks retreat Risk sentiment boosted at the start of the week Fed decision to take centre stage, as CBs expected to remain on hold Investors cautious about capex spenders, as semiconductors bounce back Earnings season crucial for 2H US stock market outlook Event Watch: Fed, BOJ, BOE, US GDP, earnings Week Ahead: Oil prices tumble There has been a major shift in financial markets this morning. Reports that the US and Iran have agreed to a pause in hostilities after two weeks of relentless bombing by both sides, has been warmly welcomed by investors. This has dramatically reduced the geopolitical risk premium; the Brent crude oil price is down 10% and is trading at $86 per barrel. This is a big change from last week, when the oil price was knocking on the door of $100 per barrel. Geopolitical risks retreat The question now is, will the deescalation in tensions between Iran and the US have a longer-term dampening impact on the oil price, and will it lead to reduced inflationary concerns as we lead up to some key central bank meetings? Over the weekend there were no new strikes in Iran or the Strait of Hormuz for a second day in a row. This sudden calm, after two weeks of attacks, spurs hopes of a return to diplomacy. Iran has said that it will halt strikes on the Gulf, and there are hopes that talks to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz will continue into this week. For now, the Strait of Hormuz is still under a blockade, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have also increased commodity supply risks, even if there are factors that could limit Houthi’s effectiveness now that they have entered the fray. Although the situation in the Middle East has calmed, it has not been resolved, and it could make a decline below $85b per barrel tricky at this stage. Risk sentiment boosted at the start of the week The decline in the oil price has seeped into other asset classes at the start of this week, and risk sentiment is surging. Equity index futures are rising sharply, the Nasdaq is predicted to rise 1.5% today as we lead up to some key earnings releases. The falling oil price is also adding downward pressure to yields, the UK 10-Year yield is lower by 13bps this morning. Asian equities rose overnight, with a 1.5% gain for the Kospi index in South Korea. SK Hynix rose 1.5%, as chip makers led Asian indices higher. This is expected to be replicated in the US and Europe later today. The price action early on Monday suggests that the losing streak for US stocks is taking a pause, however, we have been here before. The events of the last 2 weeks have reminded us that geopolitical risks are never far away, and relations between the US and Iran remain incendiary. Added to this, although US indices are rising, there are still other hurdles for equities to pass in the coming days including earnings reports and a Fed rate decision. Fed decision to take centre stage, as CBs expected to remain on hold The FOMC decision is the centre point of the week, and events on Wednesday and Thursday could set the tone for financial markets over the coming weeks and months. Yields surged last week across Europe and the US as oil prices rose sharply, we yields are falling sharply as we start the new week. Surprisingly, last week’s sharp rise in yields was less notable in the UK compared to the US. The 10-year yield rose 5bps and the 2-year yield was up 6bps. This compares to a 13bp increase in the 10-year US Treasury yield. Could hopes of North Sea gas fields coming back into production break the positive correlation between UK yields and rising commodity prices, and assuage the UK’s Gilt market? We shall have to see if yields fall further on the back of declining oil prices this week and also assess what the BOE will do next when they meet this Thursday. Investors cautious about capex spenders, as semiconductors bounce back Last week also saw the market digest the first of the Magnificent 7 earnings reports. Tesla and Alphabet saw their share prices fall 18% and 7% respectively last week, after they both announced increased capex spend as they expand their AI capabilities. This week will see four more Magnificent 7 companies report earnings. The dominant theme in the tech stock space is caution on capex spenders like Alphabet and Tesla, and optimism for their customers whose order books remain fat from hyperscaler demand. This is why the Magnificent 7 on aggregate saw its share price drop 5.8% last week, compared to a 2.9% gain for the Philadelphia semiconductor index. Earnings season crucial for 2H US stock market outlook Overall, the Nasdaq fell 2% last week, compared to a more modest 0.6% drop in the S&P 500. Real estate, industrials, energy and utilities all rose last week, as the rotation out of the Magnificent 7 got under way, and the negative correlation with the oil price persisted. The hyperscalers are facing growing scrutiny of their capex spend this earnings season, and we expect the same for Amazon, Microsoft and Meta when they report earnings this week. Apple also reports results; however, its AI investment has lagged rivals in recent years and it may fall under the radar of investors’ unforgiving gaze. The cost of money is getting more expensive, which could hurt those who are investing heavily using their balance sheets to fund their AI investments. This may continue to be a headwind to valuations as we move deeper into earnings season. Event Watch: This is a big week, and investors are looking for direction as we move deeper into the summer. The question is, are movements in financial markets already locked in, or is there room for a major shift in direction? There was an improvement in sentiment at the end of last week, as the oil price fell, however, this did not translate into a pickup for US stocks. Investors will be looking to see if this week’s earnings are drivers of more rotation out of US tech stocks and into European equities, or if the slide in major tech names like Tesla can be halted. Below, we look at the major events that will drive markets this week. FOMC meeting : This is the main event for financial markets, especially since the market is still getting used to the new chair Kevin Warsh and his style of communication. The market is not expecting any change to rates on Wednesday; however, the Fed Fund Futures market is pointing to 2 rate hikes in the next 6-12 months. As Warsh has said himself, there are diverse views within then FOMC, and this meeting we could see a tussle between those who are concerned about sticky inflation and those who are more worried about the labour market. However, the robust US economic data of late, means that this could be the meeting where dovishness is put to bed at the Fed. As we lead up to this meeting, the spike in oil prices has seen investors increase their bets that the Fed could hike rates this week to 36%. However, we think that it is too premature for hikes at this stage. Central banks cannot control energy prices, geopolitical risks or supply issues, so a rate hike is likely to be ineffective at this stage. The US dollar was the best performing currency out of the majors last week; the dollar index rose 0.5% to more than 101.00. A new round of US tariffs did not hurt the dollar’s upward trajectory, and if the Fed continues to sound concerned about inflation risks, then we expect further upside for the greenback. BOE and BOJ meetings: Both central banks are expected to keep rates on hold, and the BOE decision could be finely balanced whether to pivot towards future rate hikes or wait to see how the growth picture pans out under new PM Andy Burnham. The market will be watching the USD/JPY’s reaction to the BOJ meeting after it rose to a fresh 40-year high last week rising towards 164.00. This meeting could spur more volatility in this pair, as the BOJ tries to stem further yen decline. Equity earnings are also key for this week. Google and Tesla had a rough ride after reporting their Q2 results last week. This week sees four more members of the Magnificent 7 report their key numbers for last quarter. Here are the details you should watch for: Meta: The good news in this report could be positive user engagement momentum created by the World Cup. Meta has come under scrutiny this year, and its share price is down 10% YTD. The company is set to invest up to $145bn on AI this year, and abandon investments elsewhere. The focus will be on return on investment, and Meta’s plan to sell some of its compute capability. Meta does not have a full stack AI offering, so how it can monetize its AI products will be key. Microsoft: The focus on AI cost control leaves Microsoft in a bind. Scaling back some of its investment could compromise sales of its co-pilot programme that is embedded in the Microsoft suite of products. Microsoft’s share price is already down 20% YTD, however, hyperscalers are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. Too much investment and the market punishes them, too little investment and the narrative shifts to them falling behind in the AI race. We are not expecting these results to change the dial for Microsoft’s share price. Amazon: Revenue estimates are high going into this report, which will be a tough bar to clear. Added to this, high oil prices in Q2 could increase the cost base of its logistics business for its ecommerce arm. However, shifting prime day to Q2 rather than Q3 could add a temporary boost to revenues. Apple: it has been the top performing Magnificent 7 stock this year and is higher by 20%. It has not been caught up in the hyperscaler race to invest in AI, and this strategy has paid off in 2026, as AI spend has come under more investor scrutiny. Any product updates, including the foldable iPhone, could also be welcomed by investors. Economic data watch: There is a data deluge this week including US Q2 GDP and GDP readings from the Eurozone. The economic data could highlight the divergence between the US and elsewhere. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing to a 1.7% growth rate for Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1. However, we think that the risks are to the upside, as business investment continues to surge, due to AI investments, and consumer spending also held up well in Q2. Chart 1: Brent crude oil price testing its 50-day sma support above $86 per barrel. Source: XTB Chart 2: Nasdaq 100 in focus ahead of big earnings week Source: XTB

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Commentary

July 27, 2026

Economic Calendar: What you need to watch closely this week❓

The market opens the week in the wake of a sharp fall in oil prices, following reports that the US and Iran have halted attacks in the Strait of Hormuz – this is the main driver of today’s session. WTI crude is down by over 7%, whilst Brent fell by as much as around 5% on Sunday, retreating from the two-month highs recorded in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East. What's moving the market? At the start of the week, the commodities market appears to be taking the lead – OIL.WTI (-7.38%) and OIL (Brent, -6.54%) are the clear leaders in the declines, whilst NATGAS is down by almost 4%. On the other side of the market, silver (+2.57%), US100 (+1.41%) and EU50 (+1.36%) are posting the biggest gains, suggesting a rebound from geopolitical risks and a return of appetite for risky assets. The main European indices (DE40 +1.32%, SPA35 +1.25%, ITA40 +1.20%) and the US500 (+0.96%) are rising at the open, as are the Asian indices JP225 (+1.31%) and CHN.cash (+1.33%). Today’s macroeconomic data At 10:00 we’ll see the German Ifo index for July, and at 14:30 US durable goods orders for June – these are the only hard macroeconomic readings on today’s calendar. In the background, however, geopolitical and trade developments are dominating the scene – on Friday, the Trump administration imposed new Section 301 tariffs (10–12.5 per cent) on 60 trading partners, which is once again fuelling uncertainty in global markets. What’s in store for us this week Monday, 27 July 10:00 Germany – Ifo Institute Index (business climate) for July 14:30 US – Durable goods orders (month-on-month) for June Tuesday, 28 July 05:05 Australia – Speech by the RBA Governor 22:40 US – API report on changes in crude oil stocks Wednesday, 29 July 03:30 Australia – CPI inflation (y/y and q/q) for the second quarter 16:30 US – Change in crude oil and petrol stocks, according to the EIA 20:00 US – Fed interest rate decision 20:30 USA – FOMC press conference Thursday, 30 July 09:00 Spain – CPI inflation for July and GDP for the second quarter 11:00 Eurozone – GDP (year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter) for the second quarter 13:00 UK – BoE interest rate decision 14:00 Germany – CPI inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July 14:30 US – GDP (annualised) for the second quarter 14:30 US – PCE inflation for June 16:30 US – EIA natural gas stock figures Friday, 31 July 00:00 Japan – BoJ interest rate decision and press conference 01:50 Japan – Industrial production and retail sales for June 03:30 China – CFLP PMI indices (for manufacturing and services) for July 09:30 Poland – CPI inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July 11:00 Eurozone – HICP and core HICP inflation (year-on-year and month-on-month) for July The key event of the week will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday (20:00), alongside Jerome Powell’s press conference – the market is currently pricing in a 35–40 per cent chance of a rate rise, which is a sharp increase from around 10 per cent as recently as June, due to the surge in oil prices and concerns about inflation. In addition, we are in for a marathon of Mag7 earnings – Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday after the close, Apple and Amazon on Thursday, whilst outside the Big Tech sector, Visa, Samsung and ExxonMobil will also be in the spotlight. On the macro front, the week concludes with a series of key releases: US and eurozone Q2 GDP figures (Thursday), the BoE’s decision and German CPI inflation (Thursday), and on Friday the BoJ’s decision, China’s PMI, and Polish and EU CPI inflation figures for July. Source: XTB

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Commentary

July 27, 2026

Copper Steadies Amid Easing Mideast Tensions

Copper futures steadied above $6.3 per pound on Monday after experiencing sharp volatility last week, as easing tensions in the Middle East lifted market sentiment. The US and Iran suspended strikes against each other over the weekend amid renewed diplomatic efforts, with President Donald Trump reportedly open to restarting peace negotiations. Oil prices declined sharply, easing concerns about inflation and the interest rate outlook. Copper also continued to draw support from its strong long-term demand prospects, driven by the global transition to clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers. On the supply side, indications of near-term tightness in top consumer China underpinned prices, while severe storms in leading producer Chile raised the risk of disruptions to copper output.

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Markets

July 27, 2026

XAG/USD jumps over 2% to near $60 on renewed US-Iran diplomacy hopes

Silver price gains sharply to near $60.00 as the US-Iran military aggression pauses. The pause in Middle East hostilities has weighed heavily on oil prices. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Silver price (XAG) trades sharply higher near $60.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The white metal starts the week on a firm note as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran has sent oil prices sharply lower. The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran paused after US ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Mike Waltz, told "Fox News ⁠Sunday" that President Donald Trump had decided to pause US attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, Reuters reports. In the Asian trade, the WTI Oil price trades 5.6% lower to near $84.00. A sharp decline in oil prices has reduced concerns of a prolong elevated inflation expectations, which has eased fears of higher interest rates by global central banks in the near term. The Silver price underperformed in the last months when the onset of the Middle East war boosted oil prices. Technically, higher interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Silver technical analysis XAG/USD trades higher at around $60 at press time, striving to return above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $59.35. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lifts toward the mid-40s and hints at modestly improving momentum rather than outright bearish exhaustion. On the topside, a decisive daily close above the 20-day EMA at $59.35 would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a deeper recovery. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.

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Energies

July 27, 2026

WTI remains heavily offered near $84.00 amid hopes for de-escalation in US-Iran conflict

WTI opens with a big bearish gap on Monday amid renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy. Shipping restrictions through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz limit losses. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new at the start of a new week and retreats further from its highest level since June 8, around the $92.25 zone, touched last Thursday. The black liquid, however, recovers slightly from a four-day trough, touched during the Asian session, and currently trades near the $84.00 mark, still down nearly 6% for the day. The US paused its bombing campaign following 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets late on Friday, prompting Tehran to suspend its retaliatory attacks against Washington's allies in the Middle East. US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Mike Waltz said that while forces remained locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations a little bit of room. This revives hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran conflict, leading to some unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium and exerting pressure on crude oil prices. Meanwhile, traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on 26 July after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi oil installations along the coast of the Red Sea. This adds to concerns about significant disruptions to global oil supplies due to the restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which holds back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets and limits the downside for crude oil prices. Investors might also opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis before confirming that the commodity has topped out and positioning for deeper losses. Analysts at Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team highlight that crude benchmarks have surged on renewed supply concerns, noting that “Brent, WTI, and refined products rallied sharply as Hormuz disruptions, intensified Russia-Ukraine strikes, CPC terminal outages, and record-tight diesel markets renewed fears of a broader supply crunch.” They frame these overlapping disruptions as reigniting worries over the durability of global oil supply, with the combination of geopolitical flashpoints and logistical bottlenecks driving the latest leg higher in the complex.

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Commentary

July 27, 2026

Gold gains as falling oil prices ease inflation and rate hike fears

Gold rises as falling oil prices and a pause in US-Iran strikes eased inflation and interest rate concerns. Upcoming policy decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ could trigger further market movement. Iran confirmed it will refrain from retaliatory attacks as long as the US bombing pause holds. Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 4,103 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Gold prices pushed higher as a sharp drop in oil prices eased market fears over inflation and interest rate hikes, following a weekend pause in military hostilities between the US and Iran. Attention now shifts to a dense week of economic catalysts that could spark fresh market volatility. Investors face an unusually heavy lineup of central-bank decisions, including meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ), alongside pivotal inflation and growth figures. Key releases such as US GDP, US core PCE inflation, and CPI reports from the Eurozone and Australia are expected to heavily influence global interest rate expectations. The diplomatic landscape saw a reprieve after the US suspended its two-week bombing campaign against Iran late Friday. Tehran responded by holding back retaliatory strikes against Washington's Middle Eastern allies for a second consecutive night. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz noted that while American forces remain locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give room for potential negotiations. Reuters corroborated this stance, quoting a senior Iranian official who stated that Tehran's policy remains "attack for attack"—meaning if US strikes halt, Iran will likewise suspend its military operations.

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Cryptocurrencies

July 27, 2026

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC extends winning streak, ETH clears key hurdle, XRP steadies

Bitcoin trades above the 50-day EMA at $65,089 on Monday, printing four consecutive weeks of gains. Ethereum closes above the 100-day EMA at $1,934, signaling a bullish move ahead. XRP steadies at $1.10, with momentum indicating mild bullish signs. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) begin the week on a firm footing after surging over 1%, 4% and 1%, respectively, in the previous week. BTC holds above key technical resistance after recording its fourth consecutive weekly gain. ETH has strengthened its bullish outlook by closing above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while XRP stabilizes around $1.10, with momentum indicators suggesting a mild upside bias. Bitcoin could extend gains as it closes above the 50-day EMA Bitcoin price trades at $65,199 on Monday, holding a neutral-to-bullish bias as price sits above the 50-day EMA at $65,089 but remains capped by the 100-day EMA at $67,787 and the distant 200-day EMA near $73,848. The reclaim of the short-term EMA hints at an attempt to stabilize after recent volatility, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 signals moderate, rather than aggressive, buying pressure as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) cools with a still-positive but fading reading, suggesting upside attempts may face headwinds into overhead averages. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA near $67,787, with a subsequent barrier at the 200-day EMA around $73,848 and a major horizontal cap up at $84,410.  On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day EMA at $65,088, ahead of a more important horizontal floor at $64,004; a sustained break back below this band would weaken the current constructive tone and expose a deeper corrective phase. Ethereum closes above 100-day EMA Ethereum price trades at $1,945 on Monday after surging over 4% in the previous week. ETH is keeping a bullish near‑term bias as price holds above the 50‑day and 100‑day EMAs at roughly $1,841 and $1,934, respectively. This configuration suggests the recent advance is supported by the medium‑term trend, while the RSI near 62 points to firm but not extreme upside momentum. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, reinforcing the constructive tone as long as the pair stays above its reclaimed short‑ and medium‑term EMAs. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the psychological $2,000 mark, with the 200‑day EMA higher up near $2,158 forming a more significant barrier that would need to be cleared to unlock a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100‑day EMA around $1,934, followed by the 50‑day EMA near $1,841; a break below the latter would suggest a deeper corrective phase toward the broader horizontal floor at $1,385. XRP steadies below key EMAs XRP price trades at $1.10 on Monday, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs clustered overhead from roughly $1.14 to $1.43.  The structure suggests rallies are being capped by these descending EMAs, even as the RSI hovers near the neutral 50 line at 49 and the MACD remains marginally positive, hinting at only modest recovery attempts within a broader corrective phase. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 50-day EMA near $1.13, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.22 and the horizontal barrier at $1.30; above these, the 200-day EMA at $1.43 and the prior horizontal cap at the $1.90 mark are stronger medium-term supply zones. On the downside, the first notable support sits at the psychological and chart level of $1.00, where buyers may attempt to defend the latest pullback if selling pressure resumes.

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Energies

July 27, 2026

Gasoline Prices Retreat

US gasoline prices slid to around $3.28 per gallon on Monday, retreating from a two-month high as reports of a pause in hostilities between Iran and the US offered some respite from supply concerns. Washington has paused its bombing campaign since late Friday after nearly two weeks of strikes. A senior Iranian official said Tehran would halt attacks if the US also refrains from further strikes, adding that the message had already been conveyed to Washington. The lull in hostilities coincided with Omani-mediated talks in Tehran on a provisional arrangement to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Ukraine shifted its focus from Russian oil refineries to maritime targets, though supply concerns persisted after earlier attacks damaged 24 of Russia's 34 largest refineries.

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Energies

July 27, 2026

EU Gas Prices Slide as US and Iran Pause Strikes

European natural gas prices dropped more than 7% to below €59 per MWh on Monday, pulling back from a four-month high as tensions in the Middle East eased following a halt in military strikes between the US and Iran. The US has stopped launching further attacks on Iran since late Friday after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, while Tehran said on Sunday that it had also suspended its retaliatory operations. The pause came as Iranian and Omani officials held talks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that the key energy transit route could avoid further disruptions. However, concerns over Europe's gas supply security persisted due to relatively low storage levels and strong electricity demand driven by hot weather across the region. European gas storage facilities were currently 54.2% full, well below the 65% level recorded a year earlier, leaving the region vulnerable to potential winter supply shortages and price spikes.

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Energies

July 27, 2026

Heating Oil Pulls Back

US heating oil prices fell toward $4.00 per gallon on Monday, pulling back from a more than three-month high as reports of a pause in hostilities between Iran and the US provided some relief from supply concerns. Washington has paused its bombing campaign since late Friday after nearly two weeks of strikes. A senior Iranian official said Tehran would halt attacks if the US also refrains from striking, adding that the message had already been conveyed to Washington. The pause coincided with Omani-mediated talks in Tehran on a provisional arrangement to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could reduce disruptions to oil flows. Beyond the Middle East, Russian fuel supplies remained constrained, with fewer than half of the refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes back in operation, leaving around 45 million tonnes of annual refining capacity offline. Forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather through August 7 could also support power-sector demand.

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Markets

July 25, 2026

Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions take center stage

The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ). United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, Australian inflation and preliminary Eurozone growth and inflation figures will also attract significant attention. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 101.50 ahead of a particularly busy United States (US) economic calendar. Monday’s Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound by 1.6% in June after falling 4.5% previously, while orders excluding transportation are forecast to rise 0.9%. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%-0.07%-0.02%0.09%-0.19%-0.29%0.21%EUR-0.04%-0.15%-0.09%0.02%-0.29%-0.40%0.12%GBP0.07%0.15%0.09%0.16%-0.13%-0.21%0.27%JPY0.02%0.09%-0.09%0.11%-0.20%-0.29%0.19%CAD-0.09%-0.02%-0.16%-0.11%-0.30%-0.41%0.10%AUD0.19%0.29%0.13%0.20%0.30%-0.09%0.38%NZD0.29%0.40%0.21%0.29%0.41%0.09%0.49%CHF-0.21%-0.12%-0.27%-0.19%-0.10%-0.38%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Tuesday’s calendar includes Consumer Confidence and the ADP Employment Change four-week average, which eased to 16.5K previously. However, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will be the main event for the Greenback. The Fed is widely expected to leave its target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. This will be a lighter meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections (aka the updated dot plot), leaving the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference as the main sources of guidance. The Fed’s official calendar confirms that the July 28–29 gathering is not one of the meetings associated with updated economic projections. The Fed decision will be followed by a major batch of US releases on Thursday. Preliminary second-quarter GDP is expected to show annualized growth of 2.3%, up from 2.1%, while monthly Core PCE inflation is forecast to slow to 0.1% from 0.3%. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 206K from 187K. Headline PCE inflation previously stood at 4.1% YoY, while the Core PCE Price Index was at 3.4%. Stronger growth or persistent inflation could support the Fed’s restrictive stance, while softer price pressures may reduce expectations of additional tightening. EUR/USD trades lower near 1.1370 despite encouraging July business-activity figures from Germany and the wider Eurozone. The Euro will face a busy domestic calendar, beginning with Monday’s German IFO surveys. The Business Climate Index is expected to improve to 86.1 from 85.6, while the EcoFin meeting and Bundesbank Monthly Report will also be monitored. German inflation figures will also be released on Thursday, followed by broader Eurozone inflation data on Friday. Eurozone headline Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% YoY from 2.8%, while the core rate is forecast to remain at 2.4%. Eurostat has scheduled the next Eurozone flash inflation estimate for July 31. Stronger growth and inflation figures could support the Euro by reducing expectations of additional European Central Bank (ECB) easing. However, EUR/USD will also remain highly sensitive to the Fed decision and the direction of the US Dollar. GBP/USD trades slightly higher near 1.3325 as investors prepare for Thursday’s BoE monetary policy announcement. The central bank is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, following the previous 7–2 vote in favor of holding rates. The decision will be accompanied by the Meeting Minutes, Monetary Policy Summary and quarterly Monetary Policy Report. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak following the announcement. The BoE confirms that the July 30 meeting will include both the policy decision and updated economic projections. USD/JPY holds near 163.80 ahead of a busy Japanese calendar and next Friday’s BoJ decision. Tokyo inflation will be released late Thursday, with CPI Excluding Fresh Food expected to rise 1.8% YoY from 1.6%. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain at 2.5%, while Retail Trade growth is expected to slow to 2.8% from 5.3%. The BoJ is expected to maintain its policy rate at 1.00%. The monetary policy statement will be accompanied by the quarterly Outlook Report and followed by the Bank’s press conference. The BoJ calendar confirms that the meeting will take place on July 30 and 31, with the decision and Outlook Report scheduled for Friday. AUD/USD trades higher near 0.6980 ahead of several important Australian releases. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak on Tuesday, before June inflation figures are published on Wednesday. Monthly headline CPI is expected to increase 0.3% after falling 0.7% in May. Annual inflation previously stood at 4.0%, while the Trimmed Mean CPI was at 3.6% YoY. The underlying monthly measure is forecast to rise another 0.4%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has scheduled the June CPI report for July 29. China’s official PMIs will also be important for the China-sensitive Australian Dollar. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.9 from 50.3, signaling a return to contraction, while Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease to 50.0 from 50.2. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades lower near $89.20 per barrel after falling sharply on reports that Pakistan and Iran are exploring a path towards renewed US-Iran negotiations under a diplomatic push initiated by China. However, sources cautioned that substantial obstacles remain before negotiations can resume, leaving crude prices vulnerable to further geopolitical volatility. Gold advances near $4,065 as investors prepare for a central-bank-heavy week. The precious metal will be particularly sensitive to the Fed’s policy language, US inflation figures and Treasury yields. A hawkish message from Warsh could weigh on Gold, while softer PCE inflation or renewed geopolitical uncertainty may support demand for the non-yielding asset. Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon Tuesday, July 28: RBA Governor Michele Bullock Thursday, July 30: BoE Governor Bailey Central banks meetings and upcoming data releases Wednesday, July 29: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The meeting will not include updated projections or a dot plot, placing the focus on the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Thursday, July 30: The Bank of England is expected to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. The decision will be accompanied by the Meeting Minutes and Monetary Policy Report. Friday, July 31: The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 1.00%. The central bank

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Markets

July 24, 2026

Trade of The Day – US100

Facts: US100 has defended support around 28,430 points on three separate occasions. The RSI (14) on the hourly chart has rebounded from around 30 to above 40 . Recommendation: Long position on US100 at market price Stop Loss: 28,433 Take Profit: 29,380 Opinion: The Nasdaq 100 futures contract (US100) remains within a descending price channel and is currently testing its lower boundary near 28,400 points . Given the strong U.S. earnings season so far, marked by a high number of positive surprises and upward guidance revisions, combined with the recent overbought conditions in the oil market following a more than 30% rally from around $70 , a rebound toward the middle of the price channel appears increasingly likely. This area also coincides with the 50-period and 200-period EMAs and a key resistance zone around 29,380 points , where two recent local highs were formed. The long recommendation, with a take-profit target at 29,380 and a stop-loss at 28,433 , is based on a combination of technical and fundamental analysis. Momentum indicators are also becoming more supportive, with both the RSI and MACD showing improving momentum and a bullish crossover. The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, highlighted by yesterday's exceptionally low initial jobless claims, a positive signal for technology companies that may continue to maintain pricing power. Importantly, many large-cap technology stocks remain well below their recent highs, with companies such as Alphabet still trading more than 20% below their peak levels . Semiconductor stocks have also undergone a meaningful correction, even as the world's largest hyperscalers continue to increase, rather than reduce, their planned AI infrastructure spending. Alphabet, which reported earnings on Wednesday, raised its capital expenditure guidance for this year, reinforcing confidence in AI-related investment trends. As a result, both momentum and fundamental factors increasingly favor a short-term rebound. The primary downside risk remains the oil market, where another sharp rally could renew inflation concerns and pressure growth-oriented equities. We therefore recommend a long position on US100 with the specified take-profit and a relatively tight stop-loss to protect against a potential bearish breakout below the lower boundary of the descending channel. Source: xStation5

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Energies

July 24, 2026

Chart of The Day – OIL Pulls Back to Test $92.5 per Barrel

Key takeaways Donald Trump warned of further attacks on Iran, but oil prices are edging lower today, falling to $92.5 per barrel. Investors are closely watching the conflict’s trajectory in the context of the US midterm elections scheduled for this autumn. Brent crude oil (OIL) futures are edging lower today but continue to trade near $92.5 per barrel , after surging roughly 35% since the beginning of the month . Yesterday, Donald Trump warned that he is considering a larger military strike against Iran than ever before and said he is close to making a final decision. While this does not necessarily mean military action is imminent, it underscores the exceptionally high level of tensions between the two countries, with neither side currently appearing to view de-escalation as the most likely outcome. On the other hand, the White House is increasingly mindful of the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for this autumn. Political considerations could reduce the administration's willingness to sustain a prolonged conflict later in the year, potentially compressing the decision-making window for any escalation into the coming weeks, before the election campaign intensifies. If a major escalation ultimately fails to materialize, investors may increasingly price in a return to diplomatic negotiations as the most probable scenario. In that case, keeping oil prices sustainably above $100 per barrel could prove difficult over the coming months, despite the currently tight physical market. Meanwhile, continued Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the possibility of broader U.S. military action against Iran are keeping supply risks elevated. Investors also worry that relatively low global oil inventories could amplify any supply shock if transportation routes or production are disrupted further. Higher oil prices are once again increasing the risk of persistent inflation, supporting government bond yields and potentially encouraging central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer. At the same time, more expensive energy weighs on the global economic outlook by increasing transportation, manufacturing, and electricity costs while reducing households' real purchasing power. OIL technical analysis (D1) On the daily chart, Brent crude is trading between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous downward move. The $98 per barrel area (61.8% Fibonacci) and $102.5 per barrel (71.6% Fibonacci) currently represent the key resistance levels to watch. On the downside, important support levels are located near $87 and $81 per barrel , corresponding to the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively. Source: xStation5

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Earnings

July 24, 2026

Intel Surprised the Market. Is the Turnaround Finally Gaining Momentum?

Ahead of Intel’s earnings release, the key question on investors’ minds was whether the company’s lengthy restructuring efforts were finally starting to deliver tangible results. The second-quarter report provided a much stronger answer than expected. Intel not only comfortably beat analysts’ estimates on both revenue and earnings, but also issued a stronger-than-expected outlook for the third quarter, a development that was welcomed enthusiastically by investors. Key Second-Quarter Highlights Revenue: $16.1 billion vs. $14.4 billion expected Adjusted EPS: $0.42 vs. consensus of $0.21 Data Center & AI revenue: $6.3 billion, up 59% year over year Intel Foundry revenue: $5.8 billion, up 31% year over year Gross margin: 40.4% vs. 39.2% expected Q3 revenue guidance: $15.8–16.8 billion vs. consensus of around $15.1 billion Q3 EPS guidance: $0.38 vs. expectations of $0.27 Following the earnings release, Intel shares moved sharply higher in after-hours trading. Investors were encouraged not only by the stronger-than-expected quarterly results but also by management’s decision to raise guidance for the coming quarter. In the technology sector, forward-looking guidance often carries even greater weight than historical results. One of the strongest aspects of the report was the Data Center & AI business, where revenue surged 59% year over year. The performance suggests Intel is beginning to benefit from the massive wave of investment in computing infrastructure. As more companies expand their data center capacity, demand for server processors—one of Intel’s core products—continues to accelerate. Management’s commentary also reinforced the positive outlook. CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated that demand for Intel’s server processors is currently exceeding the company’s manufacturing capacity. In response, Intel plans to increase capital spending to expand production and meet growing demand for both its own chips and foundry services provided to external customers. This reflects a broader shift in the AI investment cycle. Early in the boom, most attention was focused on chips used to train artificial intelligence models. Increasingly, however, the market is turning its attention to the infrastructure required to deploy and run those models at scale. In that environment, server CPUs remain a critical foundation of modern data centers. Another encouraging sign was the significant improvement in profitability. Gross margin rose to 40.4%, up from 29.7% a year earlier, while Intel returned to positive operating income. At the same time, the company announced plans to increase this year’s capital expenditures to approximately $20 billion, citing robust demand for computing infrastructure and continued expansion of its manufacturing business. That said, Intel’s turnaround is far from complete. The company is still rebuilding after years of losing technological leadership and market share. Profit margins remain well below historical peak levels, and the foundry business continues to rely primarily on internal demand from Intel’s own business units. Winning more external customers and sustaining the current pace of improvement remain key challenges. Still, today’s earnings report delivers something investors have been waiting for: evidence that Intel’s restructuring is no longer just about cost cuts and workforce reductions. The benefits are now becoming visible in the financial results. Stronger revenue, improving profitability, and higher guidance all suggest that Intel is beginning to regain its footing in one of the semiconductor industry’s most important segments. Today’s report does not mean Intel has fully returned to its former position. It does, however, suggest that the turnaround is no longer just a story told in investor presentations. For the first time in quite a while, it is being backed up by the numbers.

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Commentary

July 24, 2026

Stock of the Week: TSMC – The Manufacturing Engine Behind the AI Revolution

In recent years, the technology market has focused primarily on companies developing artificial intelligence solutions. Nvidia provides the chips powering modern data centers, Microsoft and Google are investing billions of dollars in computing infrastructure, and countless businesses are trying to integrate generative AI into their products and services. However, behind every major AI success story stands a company whose role often receives far less attention, despite being one of the most important elements enabling the entire industry to grow. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is where a significant share of the world’s most advanced semiconductors are produced. The chips designed by companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Apple and Broadcom are manufactured in TSMC’s facilities before becoming the foundation of the most important devices, servers and data centers supporting the global economy. The company’s position is unique because TSMC does not compete with its customers. Unlike traditional semiconductor companies, it does not design its own processors or graphics cards. Instead, it focuses exclusively on the most complex stage of the semiconductor value chain: large scale chip manufacturing. This business model has allowed TSMC to become the critical link between semiconductor design and physical production. Recent quarterly results showed that the investment cycle connected with artificial intelligence is still accelerating. The company reached record levels of revenue, maintained exceptionally high profitability and presented a very positive outlook for the coming quarters. Particularly important was the growing contribution of the High Performance Computing segment, which includes chips used in artificial intelligence infrastructure and advanced data centers. For investors, TSMC’s results matter far beyond the performance of a single company. In many technology businesses, a quarterly report mainly reflects the condition of one specific enterprise. TSMC, however, provides one of the clearest signals of real demand for the most advanced technologies. When the world’s largest technology companies increase spending on artificial intelligence development, demand for TSMC’s production capacity rises as well. The story of TSMC is therefore, in many ways, the story of the entire semiconductor industry. The company is not only benefiting from the growth of artificial intelligence, but also making that growth possible. Every new stage of AI development requires more advanced chips, and their production sits at the very center of TSMC’s business. The key question for investors is therefore not only how much artificial intelligence can grow, but also who will capture the economic value created by this transformation. TSMC is positioned at one of the most important points in the entire technology ecosystem. In the following sections, we will examine why the Taiwanese company has built one of the most difficult competitive advantages in the world to replicate, how artificial intelligence is changing the structure of its business and whether the current valuation still leaves room for further growth. Why TSMC Is One of the Most Important Semiconductor Companies in the World In the case of TSMC, the greatest advantage is not a single product, but the company’s position within the global technology supply chain. The Taiwanese company created the pure play foundry model, meaning a semiconductor manufacturer that produces chips exclusively for external customers. This approach allows the world’s largest technology companies to design their most advanced chips while relying on a partner with unmatched manufacturing capabilities. This model has made TSMC one of the most important foundations of the digital economy. The company produces chips used by Nvidia, AMD, Apple and many other technology leaders, while the rise of artificial intelligence has further increased its strategic importance. The structure of TSMC’s business has clearly shifted toward artificial intelligence and high performance computing. The High Performance Computing segment has become the company’s main growth engine, replacing the previous dominance of consumer electronics. This means the current semiconductor cycle is not driven primarily by smartphone or computer upgrades, but by the long term expansion of infrastructure required to develop and operate AI models. However, TSMC’s advantage is not based only on scale. Manufacturing the world’s most advanced semiconductors is one of the most complex industrial processes ever created. Building a semiconductor facility is not enough. The real challenge is achieving mass production with the required level of quality, efficiency and consistency. This is exactly why TSMC’s position is so difficult to challenge. Over decades, the company has built relationships with the largest technology companies in the world, developed a powerful supplier ecosystem and invested hundreds of billions of dollars into successive generations of manufacturing technology. Today, TSMC benefits from both rising demand for AI chips and the increasing value of each individual semiconductor produced. TSMC’s Technological Advantage: From 3nm to the 2nm Era In the semiconductor industry, developing a new technology is not the biggest challenge. The real difficulty lies in the ability to manufacture that technology at massive scale while maintaining high quality, efficiency and reliability. This is where TSMC has built one of its strongest competitive advantages. The most advanced manufacturing processes, including 3nm and the upcoming 2nm technology, allow companies to create chips with higher performance and lower energy consumption. This is especially important for artificial intelligence data centers, where even small improvements in efficiency can translate into significant reductions in operating costs across enormous computing infrastructures. The 3nm process has become one of the key drivers of TSMC’s current growth. As the company moves toward mass production of 2nm chips, it is entering another stage of technological development that should help maintain its leadership in the most demanding segments of the semiconductor market. At the same time, advanced semiconductor packaging is becoming increasingly important. The future of artificial intelligence is no longer based only on making transistors smaller. The most powerful AI systems require the integration of multiple chips into highly efficient computing systems. This creates two parallel growth opportunities for TSMC. On one side, demand continues to rise for the most advanced manufacturing processes. On the other side, additional technologies related to chip integration and advanced packaging are becoming increasingly valuable parts of the semiconductor ecosystem. The Market Received Exactly What It Was Looking For TSMC’s quarterly results have become one of the most important events during earnings season for the semiconductor industry. The reason is simple. The Taiwanese company sits at the center of the global technology supply chain, meaning its results provide insight not only into its own business performance, but also into the investment activity of the world’s largest companies developing artificial intelligence. The second quarter of 2026 delivered exactly the type of performance investors were expecting. TSMC exceeded its own forecasts, achieving record revenue levels and maintaining exceptional profitability. Even more important than the headline numbers was management’s commentary regarding future quarters. The company increased its expectations for revenue growth and maintained a highly positive outlook for artificial intelligence and high performance computing demand. Revenue reached $40.2 billion, representing a 36% increase compared with the previous year and the highest level in the company’s history. Net income increased by approximately 77% year over year. Gross margin reached 67.7%, exceeding previous expectations. The High Performance Computing segment accounted for approximately 66% of total revenue. Technologies based on 7nm processes and more advanced nodes represented around 77% of wafer revenue, while demand for 3nm technology continued to grow rapidly. The results highlighted several important trends. First, the current semiconductor growth cycle is fundamentally different from previous periods. This time, the main driver is not consumer electronics, but the infrastructure required for artificial intelligence development. A few years ago, TSMC’s results were strongly connected with the condition of the smartphone market. Today, a much larger role is played by chips used in data centers, AI accelerators and high performance computing systems. This segment has become the largest part of the company’s business and remains its primary source of growth. Another important signal is profitability. In the semiconductor industry, rapid growth often requires enormous investments and can create pressure on margins. TSMC demonstrates a different reality. Strong demand for the most advanced chips allows the company to maintain exceptional profitability because customers are willing to pay premium prices for access to limited manufacturing capacity based on the latest technologies. Importantly, TSMC is not benefiting only from higher production volumes. As customers transition toward increasingly advanced manufacturing processes, the value of each individual order also increases. The production of 3nm chips, development of 2nm technology and expansion of advanced packaging capabilities place the company in the most attractive part of the semiconductor market. Investors also reacted positively to the company’s outlook for the following quarters. Management expects demand to remain strong, with third quarter revenue projected to increase further to approximately $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. At the same time, TSMC continues to expect very high margins, confirming that current market conditions remain exceptionally favorable. However, such rapid expansion requires massive investment. TSMC is increasing spending on new manufacturing facilities, technology development and production capacity expansion to meet demand from customers such as Nvidia, AMD and Apple. The scale of these investments represents both the company’s greatest strength and one of its biggest challenges. They allow TSMC to maintain its technological advantage, but they also require significant capital and careful management of the investment cycle. The quarterly report confirmed the central part of the TSMC investment thesis. The company is not simply benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom. It occupies a position where this boom must physically take place. Every new stage of AI development requires greater computing power, more advanced chips and increasingly complex semiconductor manufacturing. Financial Analysis: Turning Technological Leadership Into Record Results A dominant technological position alone is not enough to define an exceptional business. The key question is whether a company’s competitive advantage translates into superior financial performance. In the case of TSMC, recent years have shown that the company has become not only the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, but also one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom. The first factor that stands out is revenue growth. After a weaker period across the semiconductor industry caused partly by inventory corrections following the pandemic, TSMC returned to a strong growth trajectory. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached a record $40.2 billion, representing a 36% increase year over year. This recovery demonstrates that the company is positioned directly at the center of the current AI investment cycle. Even more impressive is the structure of this growth. It is not driven only by higher production volumes, but mainly by a shift toward the most advanced technologies. The High Performance Computing segment, which includes AI chips and processors used in data centers, now represents around two thirds of company revenue. This is a fundamental change compared with previous semiconductor cycles, when consumer electronics played a much larger role. TSMC’s strongest financial characteristic remains its profitability. Semiconductor manufacturing requires enormous capital expenditure, which means many companies in the sector struggle with margin pressure. TSMC operates in a completely different environment. Thanks to technological leadership, high utilization rates and strong negotiating power with customers, the company maintains margins rarely seen in traditional manufacturing businesses. In the second quarter of 2026, operating margin reached 56.1%, while net margin stood at 50.4%. Such profitability demonstrates that TSMC is not competing only through manufacturing scale. The highest value comes from the most advanced technologies, where the number of potential competitors is extremely limited. One of the most impressive aspects of TSMC’s business model is its ability to maintain high margins despite record investment levels. Every year, the company spends tens of billions of dollars on new factories, research and development, and production capacity expansion. In theory, such aggressive expansion could reduce returns on capital, but the current market structure allows TSMC to successfully monetize these investments. A key measure of business quality is return on invested capital. A strong ROIC demonstrates that TSMC’s enormous investments are not simply costs, but assets generating long term value for shareholders. The company’s financial position is also extremely strong. TSMC maintains a solid balance sheet, giving it significant flexibility to execute future investment projects. This is especially important in an industry where maintaining competitive advantage requires constant spending on research, new facilities and next generation technologies. Cash flow generation is another important strength. Despite enormous capital expenditures, TSMC remains a business capable of generating substantial amounts of cash. The company finances its expansion primarily through the strength of its own operations, reducing dependence on external financing and preserving strategic independence. The greatest proof of TSMC’s business quality is therefore not only its growth rate, but its ability to combine several difficult characteristics at the same time. The company is expanding its scale, investing record amounts into the future and maintaining some of the highest margins in the entire technology sector. This combination is what makes TSMC far more than just a chip manufacturer. It is one of the most important companies supporting the development of the global artificial intelligence infrastructure. What Will Drive TSMC in the Coming Years? For TSMC, the most important question is not whether the company is currently the leader of the semiconductor market. Its position remains exceptionally strong. The much more important question is whether the current pace of growth can continue in the coming years and whether today’s investments will translate into further financial expansion. The biggest growth driver remains artificial intelligence. The current investment cycle is different from previous semiconductor upcycles because it is not driven mainly by consumer device upgrades. This time, the key factor is the construction of the entire infrastructure required to develop AI models, operate data centers and support systems that require enormous computing power. This is exactly where TSMC occupies a unique position. The company manufactures some of the most advanced chips for the largest technology companies in the world, and growing demand for AI accelerators and server processors directly translates into higher orders. The High Performance Computing segment has become the most important part of TSMC’s business, and everything indicates that its importance will continue increasing. Another major growth factor is the development of new generations of manufacturing technology. The transition to the 2nm process will be one of the most important milestones in TSMC’s history because it should allow the company to maintain its leadership in the most demanding areas of the semiconductor market. For companies developing artificial intelligence systems, every improvement in chip performance and energy efficiency has enormous importance, especially as data centers consume increasing amounts of electricity. At the same time, advanced semiconductor packaging is becoming an increasingly important source of competitive advantage. Modern AI systems are no longer built only around individual chips produced using the newest manufacturing processes. The ability to combine multiple components into a single, highly efficient computing system is becoming equally important. Technologies such as CoWoS are therefore becoming another pillar of TSMC’s advantage and an additional source of revenue growth. As artificial intelligence models become more complex, demand for advanced packaging solutions should continue increasing. Another important factor is TSMC’s ability to maintain high margins. Strong demand for the most advanced technologies gives the company the ability to gradually increase pricing and improve the quality of its revenue mix. When production capacity remains limited and customers compete for access to the newest manufacturing technologies, TSMC’s negotiating position remains extremely strong. However, the company also faces significant challenges. Expanding manufacturing capacity outside Taiwan, including new facilities in the United States, Japan and Europe, requires enormous capital investment. Annual spending reaching tens of billions of dollars demonstrates how capital intensive the semiconductor industry has become. At the same time, these investments are essential if TSMC wants to maintain its technological leadership and satisfy growing customer demand. In the long term, TSMC’s greatest advantage is the fact that almost every scenario involving further artificial intelligence development requires more advanced semiconductors. If technology companies continue increasing spending on AI infrastructure, TSMC should remain one of the main beneficiaries of this transformation. The company’s growth story is therefore not based on one specific product or a short term market trend. It is built on the increasing importance of semiconductors across the global economy and the fact that more industries are becoming dependent on advanced computing power. A Strong Business With Exceptional Advantages, But Also Extremely High Expectations TSMC’s greatest strength is its difficult to replicate competitive advantage. Decades of investment in technology, enormous production scale and close relationships with the world’s largest technology companies have created a business model that is extremely difficult to challenge. Competitors can invest billions of dollars into new factories, but rebuilding the complete ecosystem, manufacturing expertise and customer trust developed by TSMC would require many years. At the same time, the company faces challenges typical for an organization positioned at the center of a global technology race. The increasing scale of investments requires continued strong demand, while expanding production outside Taiwan increases operating complexity and costs. Another important factor is geopolitics and the risk associated with concentrating the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity on a single island. For investors, however, the biggest question is not whether TSMC is an exceptional company. The fundamentals clearly suggest that it is. The key issue is whether the pace of artificial intelligence development, rising demand for computing power and continued adoption of advanced semiconductors will be strong enough to justify current market expectations. The investment thesis behind TSMC is based on the belief that artificial intelligence is not a temporary trend, but a technological transformation comparable to previous digital revolutions. If this scenario unfolds, the Taiwanese company should remain one of the biggest beneficiaries of this structural change. TSMC represents a business with exceptional characteristics: enormous barriers to entry, outstanding profitability and strategic importance for the entire technology ecosystem. However, this very strength also creates high expectations. In the coming years, investors will need to evaluate not only whether TSMC can continue growing faster than the broader market, but also whether the scale of future growth will be sufficient to justify the company’s current valuation. TSMC is no longer simply a semiconductor manufacturer. It has become one of the most important infrastructure companies behind the artificial intelligence revolution. The future performance of the company will depend not only on technological leadership, but also on whether global demand for AI capabilities continues expanding at a pace capable of supporting today’s ambitious expectations. Source: xStation5

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Forex Trading

July 23, 2026

Chart of The Day – No changes in the Far East, USD/JPY Hits New Highs

USD/JPY is breaking out to new 40-year highs above 163.30 , and the market is signalling that the acceleration in the pace of the BOJ’s rate rises is already largely priced in. Traffic conditions on the D1 The price has broken through the previous resistance level of 163.00 (purple line) and is reaching new highs in the 163.30–163.40 range, whilst the RSI (14) remains in a strong uptrend at around 69.4, close to the overbought zone. The candlesticks are holding above the EMA50 (161.32), EMA100 (160.13) and EMA200 (158.12), and the EMA configuration (rising, in the order 50 > 100 > 200) confirms a strong bullish trend. The price is close to the upper Bollinger Band (163.92), which signals strong momentum but also the risk of a short-term correction before the next attempt to break through the resistance at 164.00. Why do the markets already price in faster BOJ rate rises? The OIS (overnight index swap) market for 22 July 2026 implies a rate of 0.981 per cent, compared with an effective rate of 0.977 per cent, whilst contracts up to the 18 December meeting are already pricing in a rise to 1.277 per cent – effectively discounting approximately 1.2 rate rises in full. This means that reports of the BOJ’s readiness to accelerate the pace of rate rises come as no surprise to the market – investors began pricing in a more aggressive cycle well ahead of the consensus among economists. This is also confirmed by the table of 1-month price changes: the cumulative change (“Total Change 1M”) for Japan is zero, which indicates that the market is no longer revising its forecasts upwards, but is instead stabilising following the earlier movement – the “faster pace” is, to a large extent, already behind us in terms of prices. Source: Bloomberg Financial LP Carry trade remains dominant despite rate rises The interest rate differential between Japan (1.00%, following a rise to a 31-year high) and the effective US rate (3.63%) remains huge, and the two-year US-Japan yield spread has widened to 285 basis points – its widest level since August last year. Even a potential further 25 bp rate rise would do little to reduce the appeal of this spread, which is fuelling carry trades based on the low cost of yen-denominated financing relative to high-yielding currencies such as the BRL, MXN and AUD. The fundamental ‘loop’ driving the yen’s weakness Apart from monetary policy, the yen is suffering from a ‘doom loop’ – Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s loose fiscal policy (debt-to-GDP ratio over 200 per cent) combined with the BOJ’s insufficiently tight monetary policy, which is pushing the yield on 10-year JGBs up to 2.90 per cent, the highest level in 30 years. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has once again signalled her readiness to take “decisive action” in the foreign exchange market, however, interventions to date (totalling around US$215 billion since 2022) have failed to reverse the trend of yen weakness on a sustained basis, which undermines the credibility of such announcements in the eyes of investors. The options market confirms that there are no fears of a shock The falling 1-month ATM implied volatility for USD/JPY since 2022, despite the deepening weakness in the spot market, suggests that options are not pricing in any significant risk of a sudden reversal – such as a sharp intervention or an unexpected rate hike – but rather a continuation of the current narrative regarding the currency. Source: Bloomberg Financial Lp

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Forex Trading

July 23, 2026

Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY

Facts: The bounced off the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 217.52 Main trend on the pair remains upward Recommendation: Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 220.16 Stop: 216.92 Opinion: Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support on Tuesday. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as previous price reactions. In addition the price sits above the 100-period moving average from the H4 interval. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support area 217.52-217.80, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 216.92

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Technical Analysis

July 23, 2026

Lockheed Martin and RTX raise guidance. Defense stocks move higher

Key takeaways The largest U.S. defense contractors surprised investors with strong quarterly earnings. Lockheed Martin and RTX shares are up more than 5% following their earnings reports. Both companies raised their full-year guidance and delivered stronger-than-expected growth. Shares of U.S. defense giants Lockheed Martin and RTX are rising after both companies reported strong second-quarter results. Both firms exceeded Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings while raising their full-year guidance. The results reinforce that the global defense spending boom continues to translate into record order inflows and improving financial performance for the world's largest defense contractors. Key facts Lockheed Martin increased revenue by 11% year-over-year to $20.06 billion, reported EPS of $7.94, and raised its full-year 2026 guidance. RTX posted 14% year-over-year revenue growth to $24.71 billion, while adjusted EPS increased to $1.89. The company also raised its full-year revenue, earnings, and free cash flow outlook. The combined order backlog of both companies now exceeds $500 billion, highlighting that demand for defense equipment continues to outpace the industry's production capacity. Lockheed Martin benefits from rising missile and ammunition production Lockheed Martin generated $20.06 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 11% from a year earlier. Net income reached $1.84 billion, while earnings per share increased to $7.94, comfortably beating market expectations. Growth was broad-based across nearly every business segment, including Aeronautics, Missiles & Fire Control, Rotary & Mission Systems, and Space. Management emphasized that increasing production of missiles and ammunition remains one of the company's primary growth drivers. The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance, now expecting revenue of $79.75-81.75 billion and earnings per share of $29.95-30.65. Lockheed Martin finished the quarter with an order backlog of approximately $230 billion, providing exceptional long-term revenue visibility. Lockheed Martin shares are trading around $542 in pre-market trading, suggesting a potential test of the long-term downtrend and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200), represented by the red line, which separates bearish from bullish long-term momentum. Source: xStation5 RTX benefits from both the commercial aerospace recovery and higher defense spending RTX also reported results ahead of consensus estimates. Revenue increased 14% year-over-year to $24.71 billion, while adjusted earnings per share reached $1.89. Unlike many defense contractors, RTX continues to benefit from two independent growth engines: rising military spending and the ongoing recovery in global commercial aviation. Sales at the Raytheon segment increased 18%, Pratt & Whitney grew 16%, while Collins Aerospace delivered 8% revenue growth. RTX also raised its full-year outlook, now expecting revenue of $95-96 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.10-7.25. RTX shares are trading around $204 in pre-market trading, close to their all-time highs. If the stock opens near this level, it would represent a rebound of roughly 20% from its local low recorded in May. Source: xStation5 Record order backlogs suggest production capacity—not demand—is becoming the industry's biggest constraint The most important takeaway from both earnings reports is not simply the quarterly earnings beat, but the continued expansion of their order books. Lockheed Martin ended the quarter with an order backlog worth approximately $230 billion, while RTX increased its backlog to a record $289 billion, including roughly $119 billion in defense contracts. Combined, the two companies now hold more than $519 billion in future orders awaiting execution. For investors, this provides further evidence that the world's defense industry is no longer constrained by demand or government funding. Instead, the key challenge is rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity for missiles, munitions, air defense systems, and other critical military equipment to meet NATO's multi-year rearmament plans and replenish depleted inventories.

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Softs

July 23, 2026

Wheat climbs to the highest level since May 2024. Black Sea export risks fuel rally

CBOT wheat futures have climbed above 700 cents per bushel for the first time in months as investors increasingly price in growing risks to global grain supplies. The rally is being driven by escalating disruptions to Black Sea exports, disappointing U.S. spring wheat crop prospects, and tightening global supply expectations following recent USDA reports. Key facts CBOT wheat futures have risen above 700 cents per bushel , extending July's rally as concerns over global wheat supplies intensify. Russia reportedly suspended nighttime grain shipments from the port of Novorossiysk following Ukrainian drone attacks, raising concerns over exports from one of the world's largest grain terminals. The USDA recently lowered its estimate for U.S. wheat planted acreage to the lowest level since 1970, while U.S. spring wheat yield estimates are also deteriorating. Black Sea export disruptions increase concerns over global wheat supplies The latest leg of the rally has been triggered by renewed tensions in the Black Sea region. According to market reports, Russia temporarily suspended nighttime grain exports from the port of Novorossiysk after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks. Investors fear that further disruptions could affect export flows from the world's largest wheat exporter. The concern extends beyond a single port. Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly one-third of global wheat exports, meaning that any increase in logistical disruptions immediately raises the risk premium embedded in global grain prices. Insurance costs for shipping through the region have also increased, while analysts continue to monitor whether Russia will be forced to redirect more grain exports via rail or alternative routes, which would raise transportation costs. USDA reports and weaker U.S. harvest expectations strengthen the bullish case Supply concerns are not limited to the Black Sea. The U.S. Department of Agriculture surprised markets in late June by revising U.S. wheat planted acreage down to 42.74 million acres , around 6% below last year and the lowest level since 1970. The July WASDE report further reinforced expectations of tighter U.S. supplies by lowering production and ending stock estimates. At the same time, the annual North Dakota Crop Tour reported average spring wheat yields of 45.9 bushels per acre , almost four bushels below last year's level. Because North Dakota is America's largest producer of high-protein spring wheat, weaker yields could tighten supplies of premium-quality wheat later this year. Heat in Europe adds further pressure to global wheat production Weather conditions are also contributing to the rally. Western Europe experienced prolonged heat during the critical grain-filling stage, reducing both yields and crop quality. France's Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the country's 2026 soft wheat production will reach approximately 32 million tonnes , around 4% lower than last year and below the five-year average. Rising prices in France and Romania, where export wheat has gained roughly $16-19 per tonne over the past week, further illustrate tightening supply conditions across Europe. Technical analysis: wheat futures break above 700 cents per bushel CBOT wheat futures have broken above the psychologically important 700-cent-per-bushel level, extending the recovery that began in early July. The market has now gained nearly 10% this month , making wheat one of the strongest-performing agricultural commodities during July. The next catalyst will likely be the USDA's weekly export sales report. Reuters estimates suggest U.S. wheat export sales could range between 200,000 and 550,000 tonnes . Strong export demand, combined with continued Black Sea disruptions and weather-related production risks, could provide additional support for wheat prices in the coming weeks. Source: xStation5

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Technical Analysis

July 23, 2026

US Open: Alphabet and Tesla Weigh on Wall Street, While Oil Prices Renew Investor Concerns

Wall Street remains under pressure today, with the major indices trading on the weaker side of the market. Investors are trying to find direction amid mixed signals from the earnings season, macroeconomic data, and rising geopolitical tensions. Although some of the largest technology companies delivered results above expectations, the market reaction remains cautious, showing that strong earnings alone are no longer always enough to justify very high valuations. The biggest focus today is on the earnings reports from Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Tesla. Both companies delivered results that exceeded analysts’ forecasts, but investors have responded with mixed sentiment. Alphabet continues to benefit from the expansion of artificial intelligence and a strong advertising business, but the market is increasingly looking for clearer returns from the company’s massive AI investments. The company reported further revenue growth, supported by strong momentum in Google Cloud and continued strength in its advertising segment. At the same time, Alphabet is increasing spending on AI-related infrastructure, which could weigh on cash flows in the short term but is aimed at strengthening the company’s position in the race for AI leadership. In Tesla’s case, investors are focusing on the company’s plans related to artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and the Optimus project. However, market participants remain cautious due to pressure on margins and increasing competition in the electric vehicle sector. Tesla’s results showed higher sales and continued progress in key technology projects, but lower profitability and higher spending on new solutions are limiting short-term improvements in financial performance. Tesla is increasingly positioning itself as a technology company rather than just a car manufacturer, with a focus on autonomous vehicles, robotics, and AI-based solutions. Investors remain divided, as the potential of these projects is significant, but translating them into meaningful revenue streams may require more time and further substantial investment. After today’s session, Intel will publish its earnings report. Investors will pay particular attention to the condition of its processor business, management commentary on future demand, and the company’s position in an increasingly competitive semiconductor market. Meanwhile, attention remains on the latest US economic data. Initial jobless claims came in at 187,000, well below expectations of 212,000, confirming that the US labour market remains resilient. Strong employment data is a positive signal for the economy, but it also reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates. Investors continue to wait for further inflation data and additional guidance on the future direction of monetary policy. Another source of concern remains the oil market. Crude prices are once again moving toward the $100 per barrel level amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the risk of supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf region. The market fears that further conflict escalation could increase inflationary pressures again and make it more difficult for central banks to ease monetary policy. Today’s session highlights that the US market remains under significant pressure, with investor sentiment deteriorating noticeably. On one hand, the economy remains relatively strong, and the largest technology companies continue to benefit from AI-driven growth. On the other hand, investors are becoming increasingly focused on elevated valuations, while geopolitical risks, energy prices, and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy remain additional headwinds. As a result, the major indices remain under pressure. Source: XTB Research S&P 500 futures (US500) remain under pressure today following a period of strong gains. The index is consolidating near record highs, while the market struggles to maintain further upward momentum. The weaker sentiment is mainly driven by a more cautious view of the technology sector following Alphabet’s and Tesla’s earnings reports, which, despite positive results, failed to fully meet the market’s elevated expectations. Additional risk comes from rising tensions in the Middle East, which are increasing pressure on commodity prices and once again shifting investors’ attention toward the possibility of oil prices moving back toward $100 per barrel. Source: xStation5 Corporate News Elon Musk announced that Micron (MU.US) has secured a significant supply of memory chips for Tesla (TSLA.US), helping reduce risks related to the availability of critical components needed for AI development. Securing supply could support Tesla’s further expansion in autonomous driving, robotics, and computing infrastructure. However, investors will continue to assess how quickly these investments translate into measurable business results. Texas Instruments (TXN.US) reported second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, but despite the positive report, the company’s shares remain under pressure, falling around 3%. The cautious market reaction was mainly driven by concerns over cash flow generation and high capital expenditures related to expanding manufacturing capacity. At the same time, the long-term outlook remains supported by improving conditions in the semiconductor sector, a recovery in industrial demand, and rising demand for chips used in data centres and AI infrastructure. Lockheed Martin (LMT.US) reported second-quarter results that significantly exceeded market expectations, triggering a positive reaction in its share price. The company generated revenue of $20.1 billion, while earnings per share reached $7.94, supported by sales growth across all key segments, particularly missile systems and missile defence. Lockheed Martin also raised its full-year guidance, pointing to a strong order backlog and continued high demand for defence technologies. Source: XTB Research

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Energies

July 18, 2026

What’s next for Brent crude.Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in three weeks

As of noon on Friday, the price of Brent crude has remained within a narrow range around $85.50 per barrel for the fourth consecutive trading session, fluctuating between 50- and 100 -day exponential moving averages, as investors weigh the impact of reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz against the backdrop of a general lack of new factors driving the market. Source: xStation According to data collected by Bloomberg on vessel tracking, the number of confirmed ship crossings through the strait fell to eight on July 16, the lowest figure in three weeks. It was the fourth consecutive day on which traffic through this narrow passage—through which about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil shipments typically pass—remained largely concentrated on the Iranian side of the strait, where seven of the eight recorded crossings took place. Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P. Another threat is also looming in the background. The risk of another disruption to shipping in the Red Sea has clearly increased with the escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. According to Reuters sources, Tehran reportedly asked the Yemeni Houthi movement to remain on standby to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait should the U.S. attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. In June, approximately 7.4 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the strait daily, accounting for roughly 7 percent of global production. This volume has increased from about 4.2 million barrels per day in 2025, as some supplies from the region have been rerouted to routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz (such as the “East-West” pipeline). For now, the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA) are acting as a magnet for the price, and the RSI at around 58 suggests that neither buyers nor sellers have enough confidence to force a breakout from the price range. However, a breakout in either direction could determine the trend in this commodity’s price in the coming days.

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Forex Trading

July 18, 2026

Three Markets Worth Watching Next Week

Over the past week, financial markets remained under the influence of the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East. Several companies published their financial data for the past quarter, which unofficially kicked off the earnings season. Now, investors' attention will shift to the final central bank decisions before a long break, as well as earnings releases from tech giants. These will be a major test for still high valuations, despite recent sharp declines in the stock markets. Therefore, the instruments worth watching closely this week are US100, EURUSD, and GBPUSD. US100 (Nasdaq fut.) The US tech index is entering a phase of a crucial fundamental test. Following recent severe selloffs, investors will analyze whether upcoming financial reports from Wall Street and administrative decisions in Washington will be able to improve overall market sentiment. On Wednesday, we will learn the financial results of tech giants from the Mag7 group, namely Alphabet and Tesla, while on Thursday, Intel will present its Q2 report. These results will verify whether the high valuations of companies linked to artificial intelligence technology and the EV sector are truly reflected in hard revenue and earnings data. Although a trade war is not a dominant headline at the moment, it is worth noting that a temporary 10% global import tariff in the US expires on Friday, unless Congress decides to extend it. Any potential expiration or modification of this policy will directly affect the margins and supply chain costs of US companies. Tech giants' earnings seasons have redefined Wall Street trends time and again. For instance, during the market turmoil from 2021 to 2022, even a slight disappointment in the forward guidance of just one sector leader could wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization from the entire index in a single session, triggering a cascading sellof. EURUSD The major currency pair will react to a potential hawkish pause by the European Central Bank and a series of important macroeconomic readings. On Thursday, the ECB will make its interest rate decision, and markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged. June's slowdown in inflation removed the need for urgent action, but the market's focus will shift entirely to Christine Lagarde's press conference and any hints regarding a potential hike in September. Before the ECB decision, the German ZEW economic sentiment index will be published on Tuesday. On Friday, the market will be flooded with a wave of preliminary PMI data from France, Germany, the entire Eurozone, and later in the afternoon, from the United States. High natural gas prices and sustained energy commodity prices remain a headwind for the euro. Combined with mixed economic sentiment across Europe, this limits the room for any sustained strengthening of the single currency. GBPUSD The British pound faces a confluence of key political and macroeconomic events, making it one of the most volatile currency instruments this week. On Monday, Andy Burnham is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, becoming the seventh head of government since the 2016 Brexit referendum. A change in the country's leader always brings about a swift market evaluation of political stability. On Wednesday, the UK's June CPI inflation report will be released. The headline figure is expected to drop to 2.7% year over year, down from 2.8%. Such a reading, combined with Tuesday's labor market data, including the claimant count and unemployment rate, could reinforce market expectations that the Bank of England will be in no rush to raise borrowing costs, given the gradual cooling of employment. It is worth emphasizing that the British currency can be highly sensitive to turmoil around Downing Street. Although the current change of prime minister is taking place under different circumstances, the history of financial markets, including the memorable collapse of the pound and the UK gilt market crisis following the announcement of fiscal plans in autumn 2022, shows that markets can swiftly and ruthlessly price in a lack of political predictability.

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Energies

July 18, 2026

Iran Escalation: What to Watch and What to Expect

Diplomatic communications, media reports, and independent analyses indicate that an escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran is highly likely. Iran’s geography is one of its greatest, if not its greatest, strengths. But it also creates a number of vulnerabilities. The vulnerability with the largest implications for the conflict, and the one that offers the United States the best gain-to-risk ratio, is Kharg Island. This island, located about 30 kilometers off Iran’s coast, is its Achilles’ heel. Iran’s coastline is sparsely populated and poorly organized, but this is not a matter of choice, it is a matter of constraints. Iran’s coastal waters are too shallow for the mega tankers that form the backbone of the global economy to dock in Iranian ports. Under these conditions, Iran is forced to transport its oil to a port on an island where tankers can pick it up. The island is small, only 8 square kilometers, about 2.5 times the size of Central Park in New York City. Despite its size, it handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Realistically, if the United States wanted to make Iran’s leadership understand how unfavorable their military position is, it could seize the island. Even if U.S. losses are possible, it is not possible for Iran to repel a determined U.S. amphibious landing. This matters because oil exports are one of the last lifelines of the Iranian economy. While a wartime economy can function much longer than most suspect, it is important to remember: Iran is a desert; the balance of available food and water has been on the edge of a humanitarian crisis for years and is gradually worsening. Iran’s industry is dispersed, inefficient, and neglected; it requires inputs from abroad. Iran has been operating under a wartime economic regime not for a year or two, but in practice since the 1970s. A real threat still hangs over Iran: the loss of water and power infrastructure. Here, too, Iran is powerless against U.S. air power, and the destruction of already strained infrastructure in a desert country of 90 million citizens would have apocalyptic consequences. After such a move, the United States might no longer have anyone left to negotiate with, but that is a last resort. Leading indicators Despite the chaotic nature of decision-making in Washington and Tehran, there are a number of qualitative signals that suggest the likelihood of escalation is increasing.: It is worth remembering that the United States has not withdrawn a large portion of its military assets from the Persian Gulf region, despite ceasefire arrangements. There is a significant probability that both sides, at the moment of signing the agreement, were calculating a convenient moment to break it. On July 10, Trump officially called the campaign in Iran a war and asked Congress for support. This clearly points to the long-term nature of the conflict. U.S. attacks are no longer focused solely on IRGC facilities. There have also been many strikes on Iran’s regular military, the Artesh. This indicates that this is no longer an operation to change the government using Iranians, but a long-term campaign aimed at degrading the Islamic Republic’s ability to project power. Effects The math is, at least superficially, simple: About 25% of the supply of refined petroleum products came from the Persian Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz, which is currently blocked, handled about 75% of the total volume. The blockade is not airtight; depending on circumstances, about 5 to 15% of the pre-war volume gets through the strait. This implies a reduction in global oil supply of about 16 to 18%. That would correspond fairly well to the roughly $72 per barrel level from late June and early July, an increase of about 18% compared with around $60 per barrel in December 2025. The gradual release of reserves by (mainly) the United States and China would be enough to prevent an explosion in inflation, but the problem today is different. What the global economy lacks most is not crude oil but fuel. There are currently no gasoline and diesel inventories large enough to suppress price increases over the long term in the face of a supply shock, and worse, refining capacity in the United States and Europe is currently too limited. The undeniable proof is the so-called crack spread at the highest level in recorded history. What does all this mean? The price of oil already reflects significant, but not total, escalation. Gasoline prices do not reflect the tightness in the refined products market. The decline in inflation may prove temporary, and the next wave of increases may be delayed.

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Technical Analysis

July 18, 2026

Trade of the day: U500

Facts The price is currently trading below both the 50-hour EMA and the 200-hour EMA . The index staged a strong rebound from around 7,473 after the U.S. market opened on Friday, July 17 . The RSI (14) on the hourly chart climbed from around 19 to above 40 between 10:00 and 16:15 . According to FactSet , in June investors expect S&P 500 companies to report 23.6% year-over-year earnings growth in Q2 2026 . Recommendation: Long US500 at market price SL: 7,473 TP: 7,600 Opinion The recent correction in technology stocks has weighed on investor sentiment, but upward earnings revisions and strong Big Tech results could support a rebound on Wall Street. So far, the earnings season has been broadly solid despite a few disappointments, including Netflix, with those misses more than offset by strong reports from companies such as BlackRock and Travelers. At the same time, the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict appears to be having a meaningful but much more limited impact on energy markets than during the spring escalation. July's preliminary University of Michigan survey surprised to the upside across almost all major categories. Consumer sentiment (54.4), current conditions (54.9), and consumer expectations (54.0) all exceeded market forecasts. The survey pointed to a second consecutive monthly improvement in confidence, largely driven by lower gasoline prices earlier in the month and improving expectations for both the economy and durable goods purchases. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations declined from 4.6% to 4.2% , while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3% , below market expectations, suggesting that inflation pressures are gradually easing. This combination of stronger consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations is supportive for equities, as it reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer. Improving consumer sentiment also strengthens the outlook for household spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP , supporting revenue expectations for S&P 500 companies. The main caveat is that most survey responses were collected before gasoline prices rebounded following the renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran, meaning the sustainability of the improvement will depend on developments in energy markets. It is also worth noting that the latest U.S. CPI and PPI reports both came in below market expectations, reinforcing the case for moderating inflation. Despite the recent pullback, US500 still has a realistic path back toward its record highs, particularly if the current correction in semiconductor stocks—which has already reached 30% or more in some names—begins to stabilize. We therefore recommend opening a long position on US500 , targeting 7,600 , which corresponds to the beginning of the latest bearish impulse and a key resistance level. A stop-loss at 7,473 is recommended, marking an important technical support zone defined by previous price reactions. Source: xStation 5

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Uncategorized

September 17, 2025

How to Manage Risk Without Losing Growth

Introduction Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet neque elit lectus. Congue lacus ut vivamus molestie. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Key benefits of AI-Powered chatbots 24/7 Availability Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet neque elit lectus. Congue lacus ut vivamus molestie. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Cost Efficiency Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Real-World Use Cases E-commerce Automating FAQ responses, tracking orders, and providing product recommendations. Healthcare Managing patient appointments, answering common medical questions, and sending medication reminders. Finance Assisting with balance inquiries, fraud alerts, and basic account troubleshooting. Work harder & gain success Morbi lorem proin morbi tempor risus. Nisl lobortis diam id faucibus pretium vitae suspendisse sed accumsan. Sodales morbi tristique elit cursus gravida. Ullamcorper commodo eget pulvinar pretium. Condimentum rhoncus commodo amet nec auctor nibh vel mi blandit. Neque ultrices nunc condimentum morbi risus tincidunt. Vel arcu lacus non ornare. Porttitor in rhoncus magna augue adipiscing.  Manage your time so you’ll get more done in less time Cut expenses without sacrificing quality Attract and retain quality, high-paying customers Manage your online banking Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet It’s scalable and secure Artificial intelligence feature Offline version available

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September 17, 2025

AI & Investing: What You Should Know

Introduction Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet neque elit lectus. Congue lacus ut vivamus molestie. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Key benefits of AI-Powered chatbots 24/7 Availability Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet neque elit lectus. Congue lacus ut vivamus molestie. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Cost Efficiency Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Real-World Use Cases E-commerce Automating FAQ responses, tracking orders, and providing product recommendations. Healthcare Managing patient appointments, answering common medical questions, and sending medication reminders. Finance Assisting with balance inquiries, fraud alerts, and basic account troubleshooting. Work harder & gain success Morbi lorem proin morbi tempor risus. Nisl lobortis diam id faucibus pretium vitae suspendisse sed accumsan. Sodales morbi tristique elit cursus gravida. Ullamcorper commodo eget pulvinar pretium. Condimentum rhoncus commodo amet nec auctor nibh vel mi blandit. Neque ultrices nunc condimentum morbi risus tincidunt. Vel arcu lacus non ornare. Porttitor in rhoncus magna augue adipiscing.  Manage your time so you’ll get more done in less time Cut expenses without sacrificing quality Attract and retain quality, high-paying customers Manage your online banking Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet It’s scalable and secure Artificial intelligence feature Offline version available

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Uncategorized

September 17, 2025

10 Habits of Confident Investors

Introduction Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet neque elit lectus. Congue lacus ut vivamus molestie. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Key benefits of AI-Powered chatbots 24/7 Availability Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet neque elit lectus. Congue lacus ut vivamus molestie. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Cost Efficiency Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Elit egestas non velit phasellus purus justo. Quis quis platea sed viverra lectus aliquam eu. Vitae est pellentesque tincidunt nunc pellentesque tincidunt. Urna ipsum lacinia vulputate ultrices ut nulla pellentesque varius amet. Real-World Use Cases E-commerce Automating FAQ responses, tracking orders, and providing product recommendations. Healthcare Managing patient appointments, answering common medical questions, and sending medication reminders. Finance Assisting with balance inquiries, fraud alerts, and basic account troubleshooting. Work harder & gain success Morbi lorem proin morbi tempor risus. Nisl lobortis diam id faucibus pretium vitae suspendisse sed accumsan. Sodales morbi tristique elit cursus gravida. Ullamcorper commodo eget pulvinar pretium. Condimentum rhoncus commodo amet nec auctor nibh vel mi blandit. Neque ultrices nunc condimentum morbi risus tincidunt. Vel arcu lacus non ornare. Porttitor in rhoncus magna augue adipiscing.  Manage your time so you’ll get more done in less time Cut expenses without sacrificing quality Attract and retain quality, high-paying customers Manage your online banking Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet consectetur. Diam consectetur suspendisse dolor quam consectetur amet enim. Adipiscing tortor pretium pellentesque fames vulputate suscipit. Magnis urna commodo enim feugiat. Eu in lacus amet mi nec arcu. Odio lectus vitae convallis feugiat convallis amet It’s scalable and secure Artificial intelligence feature Offline version available

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